2026 NFL Stat Oddity: Week 9

NFL Stat Oddity 2026
~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

Week 9 in the NFL has felt utterly predictable to this point. Blowouts were up as we had a season-low six games with a comeback opportunity with only two teams on a bye week. You could have taken a nap (I basically did) on the 4:25 slate and wouldn’t have missed much as none of those games were really competitive in the fourth quarter.

My main criticism of the games this Sunday is that we just didn’t learn much new about any of the teams as most just played to their strengths and weaknesses:

  • The Bengals’ offense is on a heater, and the Falcons shouldn’t be trusted against anyone.
  • The Chiefs continue to play with fire with Patrick Mahomes’ health behind those offensive tackles.
  • The Cowboys and Colts traded dumb mistakes (sometimes on the same snap) in a game with little relevance.
  • If it’s not a close win late in the fourth quarter, the Broncos and Browns aren’t interested.
  • Injuries have left the Eagles a rudderless team and the Rams a mediocre team.
  • The Chargers are the worst team in the NFL and it’s actually getting worse by the week.
  • Drake “The Schedule” Maye has earned that nickname as you can never trust him to play well against a team like the Packers.
  • The Seahawks swept Arizona, the Raiders can’t beat real contenders, and the Dolphins can barely keep it close with non-AFC East teams.

But maybe the reason it felt so predictable is that every Week 9 favorite won except for the Patriots, who again have that schedule problem. That’s why I picked Green Bay. Of course, I had the Chargers winning, which will go down as my worst pick of the year, especially if it costs me a 15-0 week after picking Buffalo for Monday night.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Buccaneers at Bears: (Default) Game of the Week

My expectations for Sunday night were not much with the Bears looking so good in Seattle on Monday night, and the Buccaneers have been afraid to throw a forward pass ever since Baker Mayfield returned.

But what I liked about this deeply weird game was the way it showed us different sides of these teams this year, and it felt like the game that gave us the most new information in Week 9.

While people were quick to crown Caleb Williams as the next big thing at quarterback after the Bears went up 14-0, he crashed back to Earth hard like a zesty Jay Cutler in the second quarter with three picks. Pressure got to him, throwaways didn’t have enough on them even with his big arm, and he was single-handedly keeping the Bucs in this game that should have been a blowout.

Baker Mayfield had his share of mistakes, but he did at least throw for 243 yards this week. However, his pick six late in the third quarter after Williams threw his fourth pick definitely hurt as the Bucs fell behind 24-13.

But they were able to keep getting stops, and Luther Burden had a huge fumble for the Bears’ fifth turnover of the night with 3:38 left. That set up a 17-yard touchdown drive, and Mayfield ran for the game-tying 2-point conversion with 2:51 left. Somehow, this was a 24-24 game hours after it looked like a blowout in the making.

Chicago lived on comebacks last year, winning a record seven games after trailing in the final 2:00. This was not a comeback situation, but it was the first game-winning drive of the season for the Bears. Williams put the mistakes behind him and exploited a blown coverage for 38 yards to Colston Loveland to put the Bears in winning field goal range. Three plays later, Cairo Santos delivered the 38-yard kick for the 27-24 win.

While it’s the first time in Williams’ football career that he threw four interceptions, it wasn’t a Rex Grossman-style disaster-class for him. He still calmly led the game-winning drive, and he wasn’t the one who fumbled late to help the Bucs tie it. The fact that Chicago’s defense kept turning the Bucs away, scored a defensive touchdown, and overcame five turnovers to win shows some great resiliency on the team’s part.

I’m not going to say this strengthens the argument for Chicago being a Super Bowl favorite over the 49ers in the NFC as they go into their bye week. But I think winning this way, where there is stuff to work on and there were bad plays that Williams hopefully got out of his system, will help the team in the long run instead of everyone kissing their ass for two weeks before they return from the bye.

It was a humbling experience, but still one where they walked away with a win and some real confidence on defense as this might be a game they don’t win without making the Simmons trade.

And even though the Bucs are 3-6 and also in their bye week now, they still are right there in the NFC South race, and they should have gained some confidence that Baker can still throw and the defense has 13 takeaways in the last three games. It wasn’t just the weather last week against the Falcons.

All in all, a productive night with lessons for both teams to take into the bye.

Packers at Patriots: Less Is More for Jordan Love

The 2026 Packers are a fascinating offensive case study in today’s NFL. While most offenses want to have balance with the running game and use all these different formation/personnel packages, the Packers have simplified things and are thriving on the strength of Love throwing down the field to Christian Watson and Matthew Golden.

Those two receivers combined for 335 receiving yards in New England. All the other Green Bay receivers had 37 combined yards. Tight end Tucker Kraft had more rushing yards (8) than receiving yards (1), and he outrushed Josh Jacobs (5 yards on 4 carries), who left with a hand injury (deserved).

It’s a treat to see, and the Packers were aggressive early on the way to a 17-0 lead that eventually grew to 42-14 before they won 45-27.

In the past, the Packers thought they could get away without defined receiver roles. “Everybody eats.” I’m not sure anyone has really pulled that off well since the 2000s Patriots, who had other advantages to aid it, and even those teams still relied on big postseasons from Troy Brown (2001) or Deion Branch (2004).

You need an alpha, and the Packers have two of them right now as Watson and Golden took turns burning New England’s highly-paid corner Christian Gonzalez. I’m not sure you can even justify paying a corner top dollar anymore in an era where no one gets a lot of interceptions consistently, and most defenses don’t actually follow through with a “shadow the best receiver” strategy with all the motion and things modern offenses do to get better matchups. Gonzalez was destroyed on Sunday.

But the Packers let go of Romeo Doubs and Dontayvion Wicks, and Jayden Reed hasn’t played since Week 2. They don’t run the ball great because the run blocking just isn’t there, and it hasn’t even mattered with the way Love is throwing deep to Watson, who was always great when healthy, and now Golden is progressing just as you’d hope a first-round pick would in Year 2. Throw in Kraft at tight end after he tore his ACL last year for some insurance as a third target, and this trio can get it done for Love all year.

Granted, one injury to Watson or Golden can really change the outlook of things with the lack of depth the Packers now have at wideout. But as long as they’re healthy and playing like this, the team is dangerous.

Meanwhile, the Patriots were the team that made big moves at wide receiver for 2026, replacing Stefon Diggs and Kayshon Boutte with A.J. Brown and Romeo Doubs despite how well Drake Maye played with those players last year. Maybe they should have worried more about chemistry or took notice that the Eagles and Packers were willing to part ways with Brown and Doubs.

Neither played on Sunday as they’re out with injury, though neither has clicked that well with Maye so far. Both have been dropping the ball and not making up for it the way Golden has for his drops as a young, explosive receiver.

But while Maye was largely throwing to players he played with last year and this year on Sunday, let’s not forget he is Drake “The Schedule” Maye. His play aligns with the caliber of opponent. The Packers came into this game ranked in the top eight in both yards and points per drive allowed, and they’ve had some good games in the last month, forcing multiple turnovers and not allowing more than 20 points in five straight games.

The Packers forced four turnovers in New England, including three Maye interceptions. They also sacked him four times, and they did this of course without Micah Parsons, who is getting closer to returning. He would have just made life harder on Maye, who always seems to be pressing in matchups like this.

The turnovers helped set up some short fields in New England territory for Green Bay touchdowns, and that’s how the Packers dropped 45 points, the most the Patriots have allowed in a home game since 1970.

Great performance for the Packers, who are 6-3 and one of the hottest teams in the NFL heading into their showdown rematch with the Vikings next week at Lambeau.

Jets at Chiefs: Is the Scoreboard Lying?

The good news is Patrick Mahomes seems to have narrowly avoided a season-destroying injury after getting hit on the right arm during his throwing motion in the second quarter.

The bad news is these hits are going to keep coming with the situation the Chiefs have created at offensive tackle and wide receiver, putting a lot of stress on Mahomes to come up with quick/short throws or risk injury like this with David Bailey destroying right tackle Jaylon Moore.

Fortunately, Mahomes finished the game, and it was a good performance for Kenneth Walker (three touchdowns) and Travis Kelce. But Mahomes’ ability to stretch the field was already a major problem ever since Tyquan Thornton’s injury, and this elbow injury isn’t going to help matters going forward.

Alas, the Chiefs are 6-2 with their fourth win of the season by 14+ points, and it was their largest margin of victory yet (35-12) against the Jets. So, why does it feel like the scoreboard keeps lying with this team?

It has a lot to do with the poor quality of the teams they’re beating, save for the Broncos in Week 1. Then when you combine that with the way they lost at Seattle and Denver, it feels like a team that will get exposed by real contenders while still making mind-numbing mistakes even in games like Sunday where the scoreboard says it was a rout.

The defense certainly took care of business this week. Geno Smith was sacked five times as the pass rush finally came to life. But the special teams were horrific with a near fumble, multiple penalties that destroyed field position, and Harrison Butker may have lost his job for good in Kansas City after going wide right on two straight kicks before halftime.

Then there’s just the way Andy Reid stubbornly coaches this offense. Sure enough, they had a 3rd-and-1 on the opening drive and decided to finally run a quarterback sneak. However, I agree with the notion that they purposely ran the shittiest sneak you can with bringing Justin Fields into the game, still having Mahomes on the field, and they tried to push Fields, who botched the center exchange for a lost fumble. Total disaster.

Then Reid seemed to act high and mighty after the game about this failure of a play that works over 80% of the time, and Fields basically admitted they only put the play in this week. We’ll probably never see it again now.

Then I’d also question some of the decisions to keep throwing from the shotgun with Mahomes after the injury, and to not give Emmett Johnson a single touch until halfway through the fourth quarter after what he did last week in Denver.

Maybe it’s nitpicking in a 35-12 win, but I still see gross incompetence with this team each week, and it’s the kind of mistakes that will be exploited when they’re not playing scrubs like the Dolphins, Chargers, and Jets. We also know the Colts took them to overtime in Arrowhead and they nearly blew an 11-point lead in three minutes in Vegas.

It’s funny because people used point differential in seasons like 2020 and 2024 to say the Chiefs aren’t as good as their record. Now, I think the point differential and record aren’t indicative of what this team really is at the moment.

A candle in the wind ready to be extinguished at any snap – and let’s face it, that will probably be a low snap from Creed Humphrey that leads to a Mahomes injury.

Browns at Saints: Will They Regret Not Getting a Tie in Cleveland?

It’s hard to believe this 6-6 tie into the fourth quarter ended up being a 23-22 overtime thriller. But you had to figure Shedeur Sanders would have a chip on his shoulder in his first start of 2026 as the Saints and Tyler Shough were one of the biggest surprise teams to pass him over in the 2025 draft.

You could see the good, the bad, and the ugly in Sanders’ game with this one. He went the wrong way on a handoff at the goal line on fourth down that blew up the timing on a drive, then he also led two key scoring drives in the fourth quarter to get to overtime.

The Browns went on defense first, which I agree with here. The Saints were still able to get a touchdown drive after converting three times on third down. But Sanders had 4:12 to answer and did thanks to a huge YAC play by Harold Fannin Jr. for a 39-yard touchdown with 1:00 left.

Cleveland went for 2 and the win, and after Sanders didn’t have a good first read, he tried to scramble and make something happen, but the pass was incomplete and the game ended with a 23-22 win for the Saints, who are somehow in first place in the NFC South.

Even if the pass was completed, a holding penalty on Cleveland would have negated it. But should the Browns have gone for the win? It’s a tough spot with 1:00 left, which is enough time for the Saints to set up a winning field goal, so you can’t say the tie was a guarantee. Hell, the extra point to tie the game isn’t a guarantee these days. But the clock didn’t favor Cleveland much here.

The tie vs. win can be argued both ways. A win might be more valuable in a close division race in the AFC North and a tough wild card field to crack where 10 wins probably isn’t enough for Cleveland this year. Every win matters. At the same time, that tie could come in handy as a tie-breaker either for the division or wild card. But again, you can’t guarantee it was going to be a tie with 1:00 left, so I think going for the win on the last play was the right call here.

Just didn’t work out.

Falcons vs. Bengals: Penix Panic on the Streets of Madrid

The Bengals have scored at least 31 points in four straight games, so it was not a surprise to see the offense stay hot in Madrid against the Falcons. Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins caught all three of Joe Burrow’s touchdown passes and combined for two-thirds of his yards.

But the real disappointment was an Atlanta offense that didn’t even score half of what Cam Ward and the Titans had in Cincinnati last week. Michael Penix wasn’t sacked but threw for only 162 yards. He is reportedly completing just 18% of his passes this season while pressured, which is historically bad.

Any chance for some fourth-quarter drama died when the Falcons completed a no-gain pass on 3rd-and-12 at the Cincinnati 20 with the clock running under 12:00. That’s no man’s land. Too far to expect a conversion, too hopeless of a play to convert, so you’re only burning precious time, and then they missed the 38-yard field goal anyway. Nick Folk just turned 42 but has missed 5 field goals this season after missing once in each of the last three seasons. He may just be washed.

But it was a disappointing trip for the Falcons, who are still very much alive in the brutal NFC South race. Meanwhile, it’s a huge game next Sunday night for the Bengals against Pittsburgh and first place in the AFC North.

Raiders at 49ers: Fallout for New Vegas’ Talent Deficiencies

This game just showed the talent differential between these teams. While both are limited at wide receiver with Mike Evans and Deebo Samuel out again, the 49ers can still get productive offense out of CMC and George Kittle. They ran the ball for 190 yards with the more mobile Brock Purdy providing 40 yards and a touchdown while the 38-year-old pocket passer Kirk Cousins ended up throwing three picks (one brutal pick-six to start the third quarter) with no running game to speak of.

Defensively, the 49ers are still a strong unit while the Raiders rely on Maxx Crosby or bust. Ashton Jeanty was held to minus-5 receiving yards on 5 catches, which is surprisingly only the second-fewest receiving yards in a game with at least 5 catches in NFL history. Jamie Caleb once lost 18 yards on 5 catches in 1960 for the Browns in Dallas.

But Fred Warner forced Brock Bowers to fumble in the third quarter, and on the next drive, Michael Mayer also fumbled at the 1-yard line. One drive later, Purdy found wideout Jordan Watkins for a 37-yard touchdown and the rout was on.

The Raiders ended up turning the ball over five times in the second half, including three turnovers in scoring range. Just impossible to win when you’re doing that against a much better team.

Cowboys at Colts: The Goofiest Play of the Week

These teams are both used to playing in stadiums with horrific design that lets the sun blind the players. Sunday was one of those games in Indy, but Jake Ferguson held onto a nice fourth-down touchdown grab in the sun before later injuring himself. Pretty good catch for someone with ball security issues.

But with the Cowboys leading 20-17 in the fourth quarter and facing 3rd-and-12, there was a play that perfectly summarizes where these teams are in the NFL. Dak Prescott was able to find CeeDee Lamb against the blitz for the conversion, the Colts’ rookie DB didn’t touch him down, so he got up and kept running before eventually fumbling the ball after a 48-yard gain. The craziest play of the day.

Jonathan Taylor ended up fumbling for the Colts in the red zone, so the play didn’t kill Dallas, but it prevented from adding to the lead. Because the Colts were able to tie the game later, and after the Cowboys messed up a 50-yard field goal’s timing, the Colts took a 23-20 lead on their own 50-yard kick with 1:37 left.

But that’s an eternity in today’s NFL, and it didn’t need to be that way. The Colts threw an incomplete pass on 3rd-and-8 with the Cowboys out of timeouts. They could have ran Taylor, maybe gained some yards for a shorter kick, and ran off over 40 more seconds on the clock, leaving Dak under a minute to answer. Maybe not the difference between winning and losing in today’s NFL, but I think that is a tactical mistake as Jones’ pass wasn’t even that deep to get a likely first down to run out the clock with a last-second kick.

Sure enough, Dallas only needed one deep pass to Flournoy (46 yards) to be in field goal range, and the Colts basically let them score a 1-yard touchdown after some penalties. Jones had 63 seconds to answer with a touchdown and immediately the drive fell apart with a grounding penalty. Two plays later, he was picked off by rookie Caleb Downs to seal the 27-23 win for Dallas (4-5).

Now we wait to see how many Colts just played their final game for the team before Tuesday’s trade deadline.

Cardinals at Seahawks: Drew “Lock Up” the Arizona Sweep

For a struggling quarterback like Sam Darnold, you look forward to two games against that Arizona defense. But he was injured for both, so Drew Lock ended up throwing five touchdown passes in them and getting the sweep for Seattle. Lock threw three touchdowns to JSN in the first meeting, then it was two to tight end A.J. Barner on Sunday in a low-scoring 17-3 win that was more about the defense this time.

But what a game to show the difference in coming off the bench to face the Dallas defense vs. going on the road as a starter in Seattle. That was Gardner Minshew’s dilemma, and he too nearly suffered a dangerous elbow injury like Patrick Mahomes almost did in his game on Sunday. Minshew returned to finish the game, but the Cardinals scored nothing on their final eight drives after opening with a field goal.

Not sure this one moved the needle in any meaningful way for what we knew about these teams.

Broncos at Panthers: Close-Game Regression Only Seems to Hurt Carolina in 2026

The Broncos and Panthers were two playoff teams from last year who were expected to regress in 2026 after they had so many game-winning drives. But through Week 9, the Panthers are now 0-3 in such games this season, and the Broncos improved to 6-1, which is absolutely absurd at this stage of the year.

Bo Nix joins Peyton Manning (2008-09 Colts) as the only quarterbacks ever to lead at leas six game-winning drives in consecutive seasons, and that even includes playoff games.

But this game’s controversial moment came late in the third quarter with the Panthers up 14-13 and first-and-goal at the 1. I thought Bryce Young had a wide-open touchdown but was slow to see it, then his pass was deflected off his receiver on the ground and eventually caught for a crazy interception by the Broncos. It sure seemed like the Panthers ran a second-down play before the game was stopped for a challenge flag to review the previous play, which was ruled an interception.

Not sure why the refs seem to be so pro-Sean Payton these days, but it happened again here. Still, it was typical Denver the rest of the way with Nix doing his best work in the fourth quarter with two touchdown drives, technically getting his 17th game-winning drive after erasing that 14-13 lead with 10:17 left to play.

Young had an impressive 4th-and-18 conversion while getting roughed before throwing a touchdown to make it 26-21. The Broncos nearly had a disastrous fumble that led to a quick three-and-out, and Young had his hero moment with 1:49 left and only 56 yards away from the lead.

But on the second play of that drive, Nik Bonitto got to Young for a strip-sack, and the Broncos ran out the clock with one first down for yet another one-score win. It’s their 16th-straight regular-season win by one score, and that is a new NFL record.

The Broncos are 7-2 going into the bye week, and at this rate, Nix might end up with eight or even a record nine game-winning drives this season. He already has the most 4QC wins (14) through four seasons, and he’s halfway through Year 3.

He can’t keep getting away with it. (Can he?)

Lions at Dolphins: Take It Back and Cook It with More Touchdowns

This was my favorite spread pick (Lions -6.5) of the week, but while it still hit, I can’t believe this was a 9-6 game with five field goals in the final minutes of the third quarter. It’s not like it was some rainy game with a ton of turnovers. Each team had one interception.

It was low on possessions with each team getting eight, but it took a 4th-and-1 run to finally get Jahmyr Gibbs into the end zone for a 16-6 lead. Miami was able to get a field goal, but the Lions had a key 5-minute drive with some significant targets to Amon-Ra St. Brown on third downs to eventually get a 43-yard field goal with 4:28 left to make it 19-9.

The Dolphins went four-and-out, and the Lions ran out the final 3:02 without adding to the score. I guess you can credit the Dolphins for keeping them out of the end zone the way they did, but 19-9 really surprised me here even if the spread was ultimately covered.

Rams at Commanders: A Glimpse of What Could Have Been for the Rams

Welcome to the 2026 season, Myles Garrett. He played his first snaps since Week 1 in Australia, and it was the first time we got to see Garrett and Aaron Donald together. Garrett had a huge impact too with a forced fumble and 3.0 sacks, giving us only a glimpse of what may have been with this super team.

The Rams needed that help too on defense after it was a sluggish road effort for the offense. Matthew Stafford moved into a tie for the second-most game-winning drives in NFL history (57) thanks to a touchdown by Puka Nacua, who had 14 catches for 150 yards to carry the offense. But now the concern is Nacua could have a serious knee injury for an offense that already lost Davante Adams for two months.

That’s really the story with the 2026 Rams. We didn’t get to see Donald and Garrett together until today, and by the time it finally happened, they lost Jaylen Watson at corner and Adams at wide receiver. Now maybe Puka. Don’t forget the kicker shenanigans too.

Meanwhile, the Commanders showed again why Dan Quinn is likely getting fired this season. Just more poor game management, and some of that needs to fall on the shoulders of Jayden Daniels, who should be a more vocal leader in Year 3. Not getting a snap off on time on a 4th-and-6 at the opponent 40 in a 20-13 game in the fourth quarter, so you had to punt after delay of game is a major failure. They ended up going for a 4th-and-17 at the 50 on their next drive.

Also, let me quickly get back to blaming Sean McVay for being terrible in game-sealing moments. He had a 3rd-and-11 at midfield with a chance to ice it and called a designed run for Nacua, and that’s the play he was injured on.

If you’re going to play the clock (the right call for 3rd-and-11 out of FG range), why not just run with the back? Why risk your star who is all you really have left at receivers worth a damn? He may have just ruined their season for sure if the injury is significant.

This was not a good game for either team. The Commanders were 31 yards away from the end zone and should have had two cracks at the Hail Mary, something this offense should know about. But they ended the game by going underneath, never got inside the 10, and tried the lateral game before fumbling.

Just zero situational awareness in Washington. That starts with the coaching.

Giants at Eagles: When Do They Make Big Dom the Head Coach?

The losing streak reached seven games for the Eagles (2-7), who probably can’t wait for this bye week to get away from such a lost season for a week. Joe Milton made his first NFL started and took seven sacks, which is a good way to lose a 19-11 game.

J.J. McCarthy also took five sacks and temporarily left the game in pain before finishing it. I liked the memes that said Mahomes transferred his pain to McCarthy.

But there are some real similarities between Nine and Jaxon Dart in the way they’re constantly injured. Still, the Giants move to 5-2-1 and have a real shot of taking this division even with the musical chairs at quarterback.

The Eagles picked a terrible year to get massively injured and fall apart.

Texans at Chargers: 37 Drives Without a Touchdown?

The Chargers lost their 11th game in a row to fall to 0-8 this season. The nicest thing you can say about Justin Herbert here is that his now weekly interception was a single-event arm punt. But he did take 8 sacks as it was a struggle without Ladd McConkey at wide receiver.

Houston led 38-9 in the fourth quarter before Quentin Johnston mercifully ended a 37-drive drought without a touchdown by getting one for the Chargers. Even a player like Charlie Kolar, who probably hasn’t watched Clerks, was shocked at the idea of 37 straight drives without a touchdown.

But that happened, and even if the offense wasn’t so bad, how about the defense casually giving up 384 yards and five touchdown passes to C.J. Stroud? He’s been playing well and getting Tank Dell (4/105/1) back has helped, but that’s as good of a stat line as Stroud has ever had in the NFL.

The Chargers started this season 0-5 at 4QC/GWDs with two blown leads in the fourth quarter. That’s a normal level of poor play. Even the 2008 Lions, who finished 0-16, blew four leads in the fourth quarter that season. But the Chargers have been outscored by 16, 15, and 22 in the last three weeks against the Chiefs, Rams, and Texans in games I’d say weren’t even that close as the scoreboard suggests.

It’s getting worse, and you wonder if a bad loss in prime time to a Baltimore team without Lamar Jackson will get Mike McDaniel and/or Jim Harbaugh fired. I really can’t think of a team with playoff expectations that started a season this poorly. Maybe the 2002 Rams starting 0-5 after a Super Bowl loss? But even they won their next five games.

Of course, it took replacing Kurt Warner with newcomer Marc Bulger, and I don’t think the Chargers have a quarterback like that on the roster even if “D.J. Uiagalelei” threw as many touchdowns on Sunday as Herbert did.

Next Week

Don’t laugh but the first or second most important NFC East game is on Thursday night between the Giants and Commanders. I guess it could still come down to Week 17 (Giants at Cowboys) too, but big one for the Giants to get to 6-2-1.

Sunday morning has a decent game in Munich between the Lions and Patriots. Chiefs could be on upset alert in Atlanta at 1 PM. Vikings-Packers rematch is the cream of the crop for the early afternoon. I guess Cowboys-49ers is the best we can do for 4:25.

While Monday night has turned into a joke (Ravens-Chargers), SNF is the game of the week between the Steelers and Bengals with both teams at 6-2. Everything from MVP to No. 1 seed implications on that game. The biggest game for Joe Burrow since the 2022 AFC Championship Game. Easily one of the biggest games Aaron Rodgers has played in the last five seasons too.

NFL 2026 Week 9 Predictions: Playoff Picture Before the Trade Deadline Edition

~ Scott ~ 1 Comment

The 2026 NFL regular season will be halfway over after Monday night when Week 9 concludes, and the trade deadline is the next day. Some contenders should be buying and some scrubs should be selling as the AFC playoff picture is almost a foregone conclusion already (barring absurd circumstances).

Then again, things can get absurd in the NFL in a hurry. We just watched an undrafted rookie start at quarterback for Baltimore (Joe Fagnano) just days after Lamar Jackson was supposed to be back. Whoops. Now the Ravens (4-5) have suddenly lost three straight games by 20+ points for the first time in team history.

Onto next year it looks as the Bills, Patriots, Steelers, Bengals, Broncos, Chiefs, and Jaguars have pretty good footing in the AFC playoff chase. I guess Cleveland (5-3) is still in the mix too.

As for the NFC, the Vikings are 6-1 but will start Carson Wentz at quarterback on Monday night. Maybe not a bad thing given the way Kyler Murray has played. The 49ers are also 6-1 but have been outscored by 20 points since Mike Evans was lost. The Seahawks and Rams were both preseason favorites but are just 4-4 at the moment.

If there’s a team that’s thriving right now that has a potential for greatness on both sides of the ball, it has to be the Chicago Bears (6-2). We know about Ben Johnson’s offense, and his defense gets takeaways and added Jeffery Simmons, who might just give the team Aaron Donald-level impact for the team that lost to the Rams (without Donald) in the NFC playoffs last year. Just keep an eye on how they fare in those tough division games where everyone knows Johnson’s offense well from setting it yearly in the NFC North, a division that is stacked again.

I think the NFC East and NFC South (regrettably) get one playoff team each. Neither should win that home playoff game. That leaves five spots for seven teams in the West and North, and that’s discounting the chance of some goofy Minshew Magic for Arizona (3-5). But two of those teams are going to come up short. Could that be Minnesota after the 6-0 start built on a blitz-happy defense and weak offense? Could that be the “super team” Rams succumbing to injuries and falling way short of expectations? They would probably be my picks, though Seattle still has to play the Rams twice in the last three weeks, which could decide something.

A team like Green Bay still has 6 games against the likes of NE/MIN/DET/CHI/BUF/LAR so they are by no means a lock either for the playoffs. FWIW, FanDuel has the Packers at -116 odds to make the playoffs, Rams at +100, Vikings are -320, and Seahawks are -122.

But would it really shock you if the Vikings went from 6-0 to 6-4 after they play the Bills, 49ers, and Packers next? I just don’t trust them, though I don’t really trust anybody this season.

Some Super Bowl matchups I think would be cool:

  • Steelers vs. Bears: Aaron Rodgers’ final game against the team he “owns” and the Bears are good TV these days.
  • Rams vs. Bengals: The Super Bowl 56 rematch I predicted before this season started.
  • 49ers vs. Chiefs: Round III if they can get some healthy WRs who play well for them.
  • Bills vs. Vikings/Lions: The ultimate “someone has to finally get a ring” Super Bowl this year.
  • Broncos vs. Giants: The most “Eat Arby’s” Super Bowl you can get this year. Bo Nix vs. Nine. But if you saw Giants-Broncos in 2025, you know there’s potential for craziness there.

But I’m not ready to rule anything out at this point.

NFL Week 9 Predictions

I have been on an absolute tear since Week 7: 23-5-1 ATS and 23-6 SU. Jags was a no-brainer on TNF against the Ravens without a QB. But you know what this probably means? The regression is about to hit hard, so I wanted to almost second guess myself on several of these picks because I don’t trust myself to have a third-straight stellar week. But let’s see what happens.

NFL Week 9 Picks

CIN-ATL: I said before the season even started that Joe Burrow would likely win multiple games this season after trailing in the final 8:00 on dumb luck/regression alone. He finally got one last week against a shit Tennessee team, and don’t be surprised if he enjoys some “Falconing” in Spain to get a second in a row. The Falcons should play better this week out of the monsoon, but I’ll be damned if that 16-0 loss last week didn’t ruin any optimism over them after beating the 49ers.

DEN-CAR: The Panthers would be the kind of team who could start that close-game regression for the Broncos that hasn’t hit yet (like not at all either). But the Panthers haven’t been getting it done like that so far in 2026 either. I think Denver finds a way again to win this one.

DAL-IND: Great spot for the Cowboys to win after blowing the last game to Arizona and with the Colts looking to trade more pieces. Dallas thrives in the lowest of pressure spots like this.

CLE-NO: I don’t trust the Saints at all this year, but I trust Shedeur Sanders even less.

NYJ-KC: Well, after all my factual Andy Reid criticisms of the last few weeks, he should look like a genius with Aaron Glenn on the other side. But I can’t possibly pick the Chiefs to win by double digits at this point even with Garrett Wilson likely out (is he getting traded to KC afterwards?). They make too many mistakes and Geno could pick them apart if he shows up with his A game. I also don’ t think they’ll push for a QB sneak after the fervor over that in a game like this, but I am definitely playing a Mahomes TD score (+390 odds) this week.

DET-MIA: Dolphins are home and have been playing better, but isn’t that just AFC East familiarity with Jets and Pats? This line feels easy to me. Lions by a TD or greater.

NYG-PHI: Oh brother, Nine vs. Joe Milton. The splash zone is about the 12th row for a ball to land in your nachos. But I think the Eagles are wore out and the Giants seize the opportunity. Two of my 5 spread losses the last two weeks were the Eagles. I can’t pick them again.

LAR-WAS: One of those games where I feel like Rams should win easy, but reverse psychology thinks Washington should win, but I should do the opposite of my belief, so that takes me back to the Rams. But since I am probably going to get a bunch wrong this week, let’s just go with the Commanders to cover anyway.

HOU-LAC: My upset of the week, I’m going with the Chargers to finally get a win and possibly transfer the most disappointing team label over to the Texans. I don’t have any good reasons for it other than Stroud screws up repeatedly and Herbert takes advantage of short fields.

SF-LV: No Mike Evans or Deebo again? The Raiders score quite a bit without WRs. I think they play this one tough and could even steal it. But I’ll go with the Raiders to cover and 49ers win.

NE-GB: Packers have been playing well. I think Love outplays Maye and they win this one in NE.

ARI-SEA: Lucky Drew Lock gets yet another game against that Arizona defense. I think Gardner Minshew will find starting much tougher than life off the bench against Dallas. Blowout possible but beware of divisional rematches with a backup QB. Or two in this case.

TB-CHI: Can we get some forward passes from Baker? 7 completions in 8 quarters is nuts. I think the Bears take advantage of that lack of passing chemistry with the Bucs, and they come out looking strong here. Possibly the new SB favorite in the NFC if the 49ers were to fall to the Raiders earlier in the day.

BUF-MIN: Good offense vs. defense matchup again like last week on MNF, and we saw offense (Bears) win that one. While I think Wentz probably gives MIN a better chance to win this game than 2026 Kyler Murray, I think he’ll still make costly mistakes in the end that allow Buffalo to escape with the win. But it should be fun to see how Flores approaches the Buffalo offense here. Maybe give the other NFL teams some ideas for the rest of the season.

2026 NFL Stat Oddity: Week 8

NFL Stat Oddity 2026
~ Scott ~ 1 Comment

Week 8 felt like a major shift in the 2026 NFL picture. The Vikings finally lost a game, Andy Reid royally blew a game in Denver, the Steelers took down Deshaun Watson eight times without his consent, and the Ravens’ season may be over after another major injury for Lamar Jackson.

We had eight games with a comeback opportunity, and we watched five more teams blow a double-digit lead. That brings the season total to 25, halfway to the 2022 record of 50 such games.

And yeah, Joe Burrow won an NFL game for the first time ever after trailing in the last 2:00. Only took a game against the 1-win Titans (+12.5) to do it, but that’s why you have to put things in context.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Chiefs at Broncos: Game of the Week

We haven’t had a lot of big AFC games yet this season, but this one may have been the most pivotal result through Week 8. The Chiefs had a chance to complete the sweep of Denver, last year’s No. 1 seed, but blew a 24-13 lead in the fourth quarter. The Broncos (6-2) take over first place in the AFC West, and there’s a chance they don’t relinquish it given the remaining schedules for both teams.

The Chiefs went from about a 65.5% chance to win the AFC West before this game to 46.5% after losing it. More than anyone, this loss was on coach Andy Reid after the 68-year-old ran through his greatest hits of game mismanagement and career-long blind spots. Sean Payton and his staff ate up Reid and his staff in this one.

Short-yardage Woes: You can start with the dichotomy that decided the game at the goal line. Sean Payton’s offense was able to scheme open two wide-open touchdown passes on fourth-and-goal. Meanwhile, the Chiefs had three cracks from the 1-yard line in a 28-24 game and couldn’t come up with the right call or strategy to score. They even brought out “Corn Dog” from their Super Bowl wins and the Broncos were all over it. After Mahomes had the game-winning touchdown pass to Rice, it didn’t count because Jaylon Moore had a false start (little flinch). Reid refuses to run a QB sneak package because of a freak injury to Mahomes in Denver in 2019 (dislocated kneecap), and it continues to hurt the Chiefs to this day.

Put Noah Gray in the Tush Push formation as teams do with their tight ends, including the Steelers who scored on a touchdown before halftime with Pat Freiermuth. Put Justin Fields in the game and run him. What else are you paying him for? Or just man up and let Mahomes sneak it. It’s gotten silly to the point where it could cost the Chiefs another Super Bowl run.

Gadget Guys: Sean Payton was pressed for not using Marvin Mims more on offense this season. Mims had four touches for 29 yards in this one, including a nice 14-yard run on one of the fourth-quarter touchdown drives. Meanwhile, the Chiefs couldn’t get their gadget player, Xavier Worthy, going again. He had 13 yards on 6 targets and 3 catches. He ran out of bounds on the Corn Dog play the Chiefs used to score on years ago, not even giving Mahomes a target to throw to. He has no awareness for the field at all.

Rookie Training Wheels: The game was a good display for mid-round rookie backs on both sides with Emmett Johnson (143 yards from scrimmage) and Jonah Coleman (104 YFS) both scoring and both carrying the offense on the day. But the Broncos still relied on Coleman on the game-winning drive after his 51-yard catch and 5-yard touchdown run with 1:56 left.

But the Chiefs stuck with Kenneth Walker, who hasn’t had a good two weeks now, on their final drive. Johnson was clearly running hard all game, and going with a run at the 1 with him (they had a timeout) would have been a call the Broncos didn’t expect. With how great Johnson looked, I’m giving him a shot there as Walker has not been a good short-yardage back. He was stuffed at the 1 on second down.

Also, rookie wideout Cyrus Allen had two catches for 20 yards but may have had a long touchdown catch too if he didn’t stop early on a deep route. That seemed to penalize him for the rest of the game. He still outproduced Worthy, who the Chiefs just can’t seem to quit despite terrible production.

Reid needs to trust the rookies more, but he’s always had issues with teaching them to be prepared earlier in the season.

Conservative Big Red: Reid’s game management in the fourth quarter was as bad as you’ve ever seen in a game in the Mahomes era. It started right away with the Chiefs up 24-13 and facing a fourth-and-inches. There was confusion over the spot, but Reid could have challenged (it was close) and he could have gone for it. He decided to punt rather quickly, and the Broncos drove 80 yards for 8 points with relative ease.

If you did any honest study of your play and the way the Broncos thrive in the 4Q on offense, you’d know that was a worthwhile 4th-and-inches to go for. The fact that Reid continues to punt in these situations with Mahomes as his quarterback and trusts a defense that usually folds in the clutch just goes to show he is a dinosaur that doesn’t want to learn new things. It was a terrible punt decision.

But there was more. With 2:44 left, Kansas City faced a 3rd-and-2 at the Denver 30. Why not run the ball if you’re supposed to be this great running team now? A pass comes with the double risk of a sack or pick, and sure enough, the Broncos got their first sack of the game. Mahomes probably should have thrown it away, but the play call was terrible in that spot.

Then Reid decided to let Harrison Butker, the struggling kicker, try one from 54 yards out in the rain. Of course he missed it. The field goal to go up 6 is really the worst decision there between punting and going for it. Yet that’s the choice Reid made. Again, I don’t even blame Butker that much for this one. The Chiefs needed to treat this drive as touchdown or bust (or run out the clock) and they botched it.

The defense only needed two plays to give up the touchdown, so at least they were quick about it. The offense had plenty of time (1:48) after a good kick return by Johnson (what can’t he do?), but Reid’s poor clock management shined again. I actually think that good kick return might have been the worst outcome since it just made the Chiefs call worse plays by trying to work on the clock and score as late as possible instead of running the most optimal plays to score a touchdown.

In fact, that’s how Pete Carroll and the Seahawks lost Super Bowl 49. Same score too (28-24). Sure, you need to be aware of the clock and you don’t want to score a 50-yard touchdown right away. But you can’t slow-walk a touchdown and time it out perfectly. A field goal, yes, but not a touchdown. You take it when you can get it, and if you can’t defend a 3-point lead with 20, 30, 40 seconds left, then that’s your fault.

Once the Chiefs got to the 1, I’m calling for the QB sneak. Maybe twice if I have to. But we know that’s now what Reid does.

Stubborn Reid: Finally, it’s fitting this game ended with left guard Mike Caliendo getting beat and giving up a game-ending sack on 4th-and-goal. Caliendo was a surprise start for Kingsley Suamataia, who was benched by Reid for the second time this season. Once again, the matter is undisclosed, so your guess is good as mine. But by actively starting the worse guard who gave up as many pressures (5) in Denver as Kingsley has all year, Reid cost his quarterback and team a huge game. You can talk about accountability, but you lose a lot of credibility the week your team signs Justin Tucker. So, what’s really going on here?

I’ve picked the Chiefs to lose these last two weeks, and they showed you why both games. They weren’t even playing that well when they were 5-0, and teams like Seattle and Denver can exploit these mistakes and roster flaws. But Sunday could really send the team on a downward spiral if they’re not careful.

But as long as Reid is the coach, I don’t see anything changing. They need to move on after the season, probably from GM Veach too. Get a fresh start with young ambition and ideas as Reid has overstayed his welcome just like he did in Philadelphia. Thank him for the service and the wins, but the game has passed him by just like it did for Bill Belichick in New England. It’s the natural cycle of a coaching life. Reid will be 69 next season, and that’s not nice in this league.

Meanwhile, Denver continues to beat the odds. They had a record-tying eight game-winning drives last year, and they’re already 5-1 at GWD opportunities this season. Bo Nix has the most 4QC wins (13) through a quarterback’s first three seasons, and he’s already tied for the most through four seasons. He’s played 2.5 seasons.

NFL QB - Most 4th Quarter Comeback Wins by Year

Nix also has the most game-winning drives (16) through three seasons, and his record is 16-6 (.727) in these games. It’s insane, it should blow up in Denver’s faces eventually, but it hasn’t so far. Nix might prove to be the Eli//Flacco/Spygate-era Brady of his generation as he goes on a Super Bowl run this year.

Remember, Eli and Flacco ended multiple playoff runs for Brady during his decade-long title drought. Maybe Nix is that kind of roadblock for Mahomes in the AFC West, denying him easy entries to home playoff games after the Chiefs’ reign in the division ended last year.

As long as Reid is there doing the same things over and over and expecting a different result, it’s more likely to be the case. The Chiefs royally blew this one, and that’s on the coach we criticized for the same reasons during the Bush presidency.

Vikings at Lions: The ’72 Dolphins Had Nothing to Worry About

Minnesota’s first loss snapped an improbable 11-game winning streak dating back to last year. But the Lions are probably one of the worst opponents and worst nightmares for the Vikings in 2026:

  • A very talented offense top to bottom that knows Brian Flores’ defense well.
  • A team that can run the ball as Detroit piled up 230 rushing yards (153 for Jahmyr Gibbs), and the Vikings haven’t been tested that much on the ground.
  • Detroit hasn’t been very good defensively, but it shut down the running game for Minnesota as Kyler Murray (35 yards) was their leading rusher on Sunday.
  • Murray’s passive play makes it hard to score enough points and convert enough money downs to win a game like this. The Vikings were 3/10 on third downs and 0/1 on fourth down.

But the ability to get four sacks and the first pick of the season from Jared Goff helped the Vikings maintain a lead for much of this low-scoring game.

Down 12-7 in the fourth quarter, I thought it was a tactical mistake by the Vikings to go for a 4th-and-5 over a 43-yard field goal after a very length injury timeout on a scary play that saw multiple Lions go down. Hopefully Jack Campbell does not have a Ryan Shazier type of injury as I’m not seeing any updates on his condition at 4 AM, which isn’t encouraging.

But I think the Vikings should have just kicked the field goal there after emotions were high on both sides. They forced a three-and-out and led a touchdown drive anyway to take a 15-12 lead with 8:44 left. But Detroit has the offense to answer, and the running game was great on the drive with Goff finding Jameson Williams for a 7-yard touchdown to make it 19-15.

The Vikings had 4:29 left but went three-and-out. This time they punted on a 4th-and-5 from their own 33 with 3:01 left. Probably the right call with the No. 1 defense back in the day. But when you’re on the road and playing an offense like Detroit in today’s NFL, I think you need to go for that one. Give yourself a chance to convert a medium situation, and if you don’t get it, hopefully you force that three-and-out, and at worst you get it back down 22-15 with plenty of time to get the touchdown.

I think that Minnesota punt from Kevin O’Connell, who is used to winning close games, was one of the worst decisions all day in Week 8. The Lions took over and immediately went to work on the ground. Gibbs for 14, Gibbs for 8, a 2-yard push by tight end Sam LaPorta for another first down. By the time it was 3rd-and-1, Goff put the game away on the sneak, and you know Dan Campbell would have gone for it anyway on 4th-and-1 if he didn’t get it.

The Vikings never got the ball back as the Lions took care of the final 2:53. Good win for Detroit (5-2) with winnable games ahead. As for the Vikings, you’re just not seeing enough progress offensively. Murray’s numbers aren’t terrible, but this baseline performance is basically who he is now, and I don’t see any bump in his play like KOC was able to get out of Kirk Cousins (2022) and Sam Darnold (2024).

Ravens at Bills: Disappointment of the Week

Even if the Ravens haven’t been playing well, this was still an interesting game in the AFC on Sunday with the return of Lamar Jackson. Unfortunately, that lasted one snap before Jackson injured his right thumb on a follow-through on a pass from the pocket. It was not a matter of being a running quarterback. It’s the kind of play that could happen to any quarterback on any pass, and it’s a miracle it doesn’t happen every season to several starters.

Worse, Tyler Huntley was soon knocked out with an injury too, putting third-string emergency quarterback Joe Fagnano in a 13-7 game in the second quarter. Apparently it’s “fan-YAWN-oh” on the pronunciation, and it was a yawn after he had to enter the game as an undrafted rookie.

It’s a shame too because this game was there for the taking. Both teams were very sloppy, they already had eight drives each by halftime, there were multiple turnovers, and I thought the Baltimore defense actually played hard this week, even stopping Josh Allen on multiple short-yardage runs.

But with Fagnano unable to sustain drives in a game he probably never thought he’d play in Sunday, the Ravens eventually fell apart in the fourth quarter. Buffalo was already up 23-10, which would have been enough to win, but then two more touchdowns pushed it to a 36-10 blowout.

Meanwhile, this game against backup quarterbacks (minus one throw) will help boost the stats for the Buffalo defense, giving up 10 points on 12 drives, including a 17-yard touchdown drive. But they were never really tested here.

Jackson is on injured reserve and could be lost for the season, which is quickly turning into another lost one with the Ravens at 4-4 and Jacksonville up next on a short week. Some even think Jackson may have played his last down with Baltimore, which would have sounded insane a year ago or even in early September.

But that’s where things are. Jackson and Allen played in their NFL debut in 2018 against each other. If it really does end for Jackson in Baltimore, his last game was also against Allen’s Bills.

Hate to see it go down like this.

Browns at Steelers: The Rare Wire-to-Wire Domination by Pittsburgh in a Big Game

They said it was over 30 years since the Steelers and Browns met in November with first place in the division on the line. This was certainly their biggest matchup since the 2020 AFC Wild Card, a playoff game where the Browns jumped out to a 28-0 lead.

But for a change, the Steelers under Mike McCarthy instead of Mike Tomlin controlled a big game from start to finish, forcing two Cleveland fumbles on the first two drives, and the running game was superb again with 200 yards. In fact, the passing game and playcalling in the red zone were the only sore spots with D.K. Metcalf dropping a pass that was intercepted, and Aaron Rodgers wasn’t sharp in the red area.

Otherwise, the Steelers played great, they sacked Deshaun Watson eight times, and after going up 27-6 barely five minutes into the third quarter, all scoring ceased from there on both sides.

The Steelers go into the bye at 6-2 and in good shape with a huge game again at Cincinnati in Week 10. It would be nice to get some receivers healthy and make up for Metcalf’s lapses, but they have to feel good about where they are right now.

Titans at Bengals: No, 2-35 Is Not Something to Be Proud Of

When Joe Burrow said Sunday was the kind of game the Bengals have lost the last three years, I agree with him. But I’d go a step further and say it’s the kind of game he never wins with the Bengals, because he really hadn’t before Sunday:

  • Sunday is the first time Burrow has taken a snap after the two-minute warning, trailing, and the Bengals won the game.
  • Burrow was 0-15 when the Bengals allowed more than 31 points in a game.
  • Burrow was 1-35 when trailing in the final 8:00 by any margin, and now he’s 2-35.

None of those records are that bad with the other Cincinnati quarterbacks collectively under Zac Taylor, but the Burrow-led Bengals simply don’t come back late and they don’t win shootouts.

But enter the Tennessee Titans, the 1-win team who was a 12.5-point road underdog in this one (biggest spread of the week). The fact that Burrow needed this type of game (462 passing yards, 6 total touchdowns) against this caliber of opponent after it traded its best defender (Jeffery Simmons) is a red flag.

What happened to the so-called improved defense for the Bengals? Sure, they had a few bright spots like getting a safety when the Titans were dumb enough to call a draw run in their own end zone, and they shut the door in the final minute of regulation and in overtime. But you just gave up 36 points and 440 yards of offense to the Cam Ward-led Titans. Ward had 304 passing yards, a career high.

The Titans haven’t put up 36 points/440 yards since the final game of the 2020 COVID season. Are you kidding me? At home nonetheless?

Why such a high-scoring game? Another flat opening performance with the Bengals falling behind 13-0 for the second week in a row was one issue. Another was the four turnovers, including three picks by Burrow. He also had a fumbled exchange with running back Chase Brown that was switched to Brown as credit. Just not enough precision from the perfectionist throughout this one.

So, you can credit Burrow for coming through in the clutch for a change. But let’s not act like this wasn’t some “arsonist puts out fire” against a really bad opponent performance too that doesn’t bode well for their Super Bowl chances.

In fact, it’s very unusual for a favorite of 12+ points to play like this:

  • It’s just the 20th known NFL game where a 12-point favorite gave up 36+ points.
  • The last instance was in 2014 when the Packers won a 43-37 game on MNF vs. Atlanta, but at least that was a Matt Ryan and Julio Jones masterclass on the other side.

The closest game in NFL history to this one is probably in 2012 when the Texans won 43-37 in overtime against the Jaguars, who were 1-8 at the time. They were getting worked over at home by Chad Henne (354 yards, 4 TD) off the bench for an injured Blaine Gabbert, and Matt Schaub, who had lost 9 straight comeback attempts at the time, ended up throwing for 527 yards and 5 touchdowns, including a walk-off touchdown to Andre Johnson in overtime after the teams already exchanged field goals.

It was the first time in NFL history a team scored twice in overtime to win. The Texans ended up going 2-4 in their final six games that season, losing in the divisional round at New England.

Winning is cool, but the Bengals have trailed by 12-13 points in three of the last four games. It’s good they were able to win the last two weeks, but that’s the Ravens without Lamar and the Titans. We saw what happened when they played the Steelers and Jaguars earlier this year. What happens when they play the other AFC contenders and in the playoffs?

The schedule doesn’t have many tough games left for the Bengals, which is why I always liked them this year. Remember, I picked them to lose the Super Bowl. But based on what I’m seeing, I don’t like the progression of this team as I don’t believe the defense is championship caliber, and the offense is still essentially the same thing we’re used to seeing.

Why say more when I can just wait for the next time they play a contender? The Titans had no business being up 36-29 late, and if you don’t see how a turnover-filled game against a scrub is a bad thing, then I can’t help you.

Falcons at Buccaneers: Who Needs a Completion to Win Anyway?

I’m relieved to say a Bijan Robinson touchdown was the only prop pick I played from this game, because it would have been really frustrating to play anything in the passing game.

Sure, the weather conditions (rain, early winds, a soggy field) made passing very difficult here. Michael Penix was 8-for-24 for 125 yards and four interceptions, and the numbers would be even worse without a fluke 76-yard completion that didn’t score anything in the fourth quarter.

But the rain wasn’t pouring down for all 60 minutes, and the Falcons still didn’t score on any of their five second-half drives either. They also could have ran the ball better like Tampa Bay did. In fact, that’s all Tampa did as Bucky Irving (27-170-1) and Kenneth Gainwell (25-140) became the first teammates in NFL history to get at least 25 carries and 140 rushing yards in the same game.

That’s why Baker Mayfield finished just 0-of-3 passing. The Bucs finished with net -2 passing yards because of one sack. It’s the first time an NFL team won without a completion since the 1974 Bills vs. Jets in a similar rain game.

But this still stands out as odd after the Bucs scored 43 points last week despite Baker only completing 7-of-11 passes for 64 yards. You can only blame so much on the rain. If he’s not healthy enough to throw, then they shouldn’t be playing him.

But after an 0-4 start, the Bucs are 3-5 and right in the hunt for the NFC South title again. They’re just doing it in one of the strangest ways we’ve ever seen.

Chargers at Rams: The Battle of Los Angeles Confirms the Chargers Are the Most Disappointing Team of 2026

The Battle of Los Angeles saw the Chargers (0-6) and Rams (3-4) enter with a combined 3-10 record. This was truly a battle to determine the most disappointing team in 2026, and the Chargers led 9-3 late in the first half before the Rams got a touchdown. Then in true 2026 Chargers form, they completed a deflected Hail Mary to Ladd McConkey for 54 yards, but he was stopped at the 1 as time expired. A meaningless play for a meaningless season.

The Chargers did not score on their final five drives, and the Rams handed them a 10th-straight loss in a 24-9 final. Justin Herbert continues to throw the dumbest interceptions we’ve ever seen from him. His 32.9 QBR is ranked dead last in the NFL as you could make the argument that he should just sit at this point.

Meanwhile, a very damning stat came out of this one as the Chargers have gone 27 offensive drives without a touchdown, the longest NFL streak since Mike McDaniel’s Dolphins went 30 drives in 2024.

Chargering used to be funny and entertaining. This is just sad at this point.

Cardinals at Cowboys: Strange (Minshew) Magic

This game was good evidence for my beliefs that the Cowboys have a dumb coaching staff, Gardner Minshew is cut out for comebacks that Jacoby Brissett wouldn’t lead, and the Cardinals would be the best team in the NFC East right now if they weren’t stuck in the NFC West.

Also, Arizona just owns the Cowboys in this era. It was true in the Tony Romo era, and it’s even more true in the Dak Prescott era with this latest improbable comeback.

Arizona benched Brissett for Minshew with 1:35 left in the third quarter and a 17-3 deficit. Tyler Allgeier deserves credit for getting the comeback going with a 63-yard touchdown run. That was one of four straight touchdown drives by the Cardinals after inserting Minshew, who threw for 188 yards and three touchdowns on less than a half of work.

Dallas still had leads of 24-10, 27-17, and 30-24 in the fourth quarter. But down 27-17 left with 3:54, the Cardinals became just the 32nd NFL team since 2001 to win a game after trailing by multiple scores in the last 5:00 and manufacturing all the points that late.

NFL Comebacks in the Last 5:00 (Down Multiple Scores) 2001-2026

Something I noticed about this table is that the Cardinals join the 2014 Seahawks (NFC Championship Game vs. Green Bay) and 2025 Broncos vs. Giants (the last example) as the only three teams who won despite allowing more points during the comeback. The Packers got a field goal to force overtime, the Giants had a go-ahead touchdown after falling behind, and the Cowboys added a field goal on Sunday.

I guess that part was a bit controversial too on Dallas’ part. The Cardinals got a touchdown to Trey McBride to make it 27-24, then Ryan Flournoy recovered the onside kick with a nice return too with 2:07 left. Arizona had one timeout left. The Cards ended up using that last timeout at 2:02 after a Dallas run for no gain as the offense bottomed out badly late in the game.

I think you could argue a first-down pass with play-action would have been the best move as the Arizona defense likely wouldn’t have expected it. Not even a deep throw for a first down. Just something to gain 6-9 yards and keep you on track.

With 2:02 left, Dallas basically had a free play to throw it with the two-minute warning about to hit, and a first down ends the game. Instead, Dak was sacked, bringing up 3rd-and-16. It’s not like you’re probably going to convert that through the air, so I don’t fault the decision to run, which they did for 3 yards. The Cowboys then kicked a 41-yard field goal on 4th-and-13 with 1:09 left to make it 30-24.

Sure, it’s the dreaded 6-point lead, but what else could you really do on 3rd-and-16 and 4th-and-13? They basically had to kick at that point. Paint the failures on the first two downs of that series, not the last two.

Also, the defense could theoretically stop a backup quarterback from driving 80 yards in 65 seconds, can’t they? I mean, how often do you see a team go 80+ yards in the last 65 seconds, down 4-8 points? Stathead only shows it happening six other times, though I question some of those results.

But Minshew pulled it off as Michael Wilson has turned into a stud. He had three catches for 61 yards on the drive, including a 13-yard touchdown that should have won the game. But Chad Ryland showed he’s not much of a Chad by missing the extra point with 0:05 left. Oof.

Dallas lucked out in getting to OT, and I can understand going on defense first as you don’t want to give that defense four downs to face Arizona’s red-hot offense. But that defense came through with a quick three-and-out. The bleeding finally stopped. Dak and the Cowboys just needed a field goal, and what did this overrated offense do? They also went three-and-out with a 2-yard run, incompletion to CeeDee Lamb, and another sack. The Cowboys had minus-9 net yards on their last three drives.

Arizona just needed a field goal, Wilson and Allgeier got them there, and Ryland redeemed his Chad card with a 42-yard field goal to win it.

Minshew is now 8-15 (.348) at 4QC opportunities while Brissett is 7-27 (.206). I would assume this means a quarterback change has been made for the next game, and while it’s not like this team is probably going anywhere in the NFC West, they could be a little more interesting to watch with the weapons they have. Minshew’s always had a decent feel for the game, and LaFleur is doing a good job with the offense this year.

But what a letdown for Dallas (3-5) as it should be yet another year without reaching the NFC Championship Game.

Raiders at Jets: An AFL-Style Shootout

I figured this game had good scoring potential with Klint Kubiak vs. Aaron Glenn’s defense on one side, and Geno Smith would want to show up the Raiders after what happened last year. An old-school AFL shootout between the two teams from the “Heidi Game” broke out with 71 points scored.

The Jets led most of the way, including two 9-point leads, but the Raiders kept coming back on a day their wide receivers had 4 catches for 38 yards and a touchdown (all by Nailor). The running game wasn’t efficient (2.9 YPC), but it’s unique how they run this offense through the backs and tight ends. Brock Bowers had 92 yards and two touchdowns.

The Raiders took a 35-30 lead in the fourth quarter. On their second attempt at a comeback drive, the Jets got the ball to the Vegas 13, but three straight plays didn’t gain a yard. They faced 4th-and-10 with 4:35 left and had a decision to make down 5.

It’s really a no man’s land situation. I see the argument for kicking the field goal as that should be high percentage, and if you use your four clock stoppages to get the ball back against a team that lacks outside WRs and a good running game (and immobile quarterback), you only need a field goal to win.

On the other hand, I see the argument for needing a touchdown, it’s been a 35-30 shootout game, and Geno was playing well with his receivers. Maybe he can convert it here. But given it was 4th-and-10, I probably would have kicked the field goal too to make it 35-33 as the Jets did. I don’t hate Glenn for that decision.

The problem was the defense played poorly in return. The Raiders finally ripped off some strong runs of 7 and 8 yards, then about the worst thing you can do is give up a 7-yard completion to bring up a 3rd-and-1 when you’re down to your last timeout. Cousins converted that on a sneak – even the senior citizens can do it – and that allowed the Raiders to drain a lot of clock.

I guess there was some second-guessing of Kubiak to kick a 53-yard field goal in a 35-33 game, because a miss would put the ball at the 43, and the Jets would have 27 seconds to set up a winning field goal. But I also don’t like the idea of punting or going for it on 4th-and-5 either, so it’s up to the kicker to earn his paycheck. Gay did from 53 yards out, and the Raiders led 38-33.

To be fair, the Jets still had a shot at this in the end. Touchback to the 35, a pass to Garrett Wilson for 15 and another 15 for the rough tackle, and you’re now 35 yards away with 14 seconds left. That should be a couple of shots to the end zone, but Geno’s first try was a great pick in the end zone by Jeremy Chinn, who sealed the deal and made up for his 15-yard penalty on the hit on Wilson.

Patriots at Dolphins: A Happy Ending in Miami for Robert Kraft

The Dolphins have a lot of experience in beating superior New England teams at home over the years. This game was a later 4:25 start instead of the usual 1:00 PM for these teams, but the Patriots didn’t really show up until the second drive of the third quarter when Drake Maye hit a 43-yard touchdown to Kyle Williams. Maye’s first 17 plays gained 42 yards total against one of the league’s worst defenses.

But a couple of overturned pass plays that went in New England’s favor sparked two touchdown drives, and the Patriots led 17-13 going into the fourth. Malik Willis played well early, but he had a bad pick to start the fourth, and that set up another long Maye touchdown pass to make it 24-13.

The Dolphins wasted nearly 6:00 and missed a 43-yard field goal, a killer. By the time they eventually found the end zone, only 2:04 remained and the onside kick (naturally) didn’t work. One first down was enough for the Patriots to run out the clock and escape with a 24-19 win.

Just not enough plays made by Miami. Like what in the Terry Rozier was this pass rush?

Colts at Jaguars: Like a Department Store Going Out of Business

The Colts have a flash sale going on with their roster, and they already seem checked out of things after Sunday’s 42-7 beatdown in Jacksonville. The rumors were that Brian Thomas Jr. will be traded too from the Jaguars, but he caught the first touchdown in this one (his only catch too).

The Jaguars are quietly rolling along with another dominant performance on both sides of the ball. They started peaking after their London trip last year too, so maybe they’ll go on a similar run here. A chance to drop the Ravens under .500 on TNF next.

As for the Colts, if that ends up being Jonathan Taylor’s last game with the team, he had just 8 carries for 23 yards. The Colts might just be ready to blow it all up and start over.

Eagles at Commanders: Your CITY SNF Game Between Two CITY Teams in a CITY Division

Let’s never do that again, NFL. They had a chance to flex the game between NFC East teams with three wins combined out of SNF and did not do so. We were left with a dull 27-10 win by the Commanders that was closer than the score suggested as the Eagles blew a 10-0 lead early, then blew a 41-yard field goal (loudest doink of the day after a 36-yard make was negated by illegal formation) that would have made it 16-13 midway through the final quarter.

Washington piled it on from there, Tanner McKee struggled as the Eagles lost their sixth straight, and Jayden Daniels finally got his first win since October 5, 2025.

But the Commanders are still 2-4-1 and not inspiring much confidence. At least Giants-Eagles is buried in the Sunday 1 PM slate next week where it belongs. I know this won’t be a shock, but the NFL has the NFC East in prime time again soon in Week 10 when the Commanders are at the Giants for TNF.

With the way this division is going, that could be the de-facto NFC East title game this season.

Next Week

Welp, TNF has already been compromised with Lamar Jackson out for the Ravens in Jacksonville. We might not even have enough time to see Tyler Huntley.

Bengals-Falcons should be a lot kinder overseas to the Atlanta offense unless they’re playing in another downpour. You know the 1 PM slate is bad when Broncos-Panthers is the closest thing to a standout game. Yikes. Guess I’ll be strictly RedZone channel with the Steelers on a bye.

Green Bay-New England will try to carry the 4:25 window. I guess Raiders-49ers could be fun for touchdown scoring. SNF is Bucs-Bears, another case of a team coming off MNF and playing on SNF. Don’t love that nor do I love the idea of seeing this Tampa team that doesn’t want to throw the ball right now.

Bills-Vikings on MNF. I know it won’t hold a candle to their 2022 classic where Justin Jefferson had the best catch of his career (4th-and-18) and Josh Allen had the worst quarterback fumble since Joe Pisarcik.

NFL 2026 Week 8 Predictions: The One Where the NFC East Forced Itself On Us Edition

~ Scott ~ 1 Comment

It’s Week 8 in the NFL and there are some really good games this week, especially with key division races in the AFC North, NFC North, and AFC West. There’s also a Bills vs. Ravens game that could be good with the return of Lamar Jackson.

But what is the NFL leaving in prime time on Sunday night? An NFC East shit-fest between the Eagles (2-5) and Commanders (1-4-1). We already had to watch the Eagles lose 38-21 on Monday night against Dallas, and now they’re a 5.5-point underdog to a 1-win Washington team that hasn’t been fun to watch since they lost the 2024 NFC Championship Game in Philadelphia.

All these great games and it just so happens that they can’t flex any of them in.

  • Oh, we can’t do Steelers-Browns in prime time again or do Vikings-Lions (SNF in Week 15) even though the Eagles and Cowboys get both of their games in a national window (they meet again on Thanksgiving).
  • We can’t flex Chiefs-Broncos in a battle for first place because God forbid the Chiefs are on SNF two weeks in a row even though we’ve recently watched the Falcons and Cowboys in three straight prime-time games.
  • We can’t do Bills-Ravens because the Ravens play on Thursday night (more valid at least).

Instead, let’s get the battle to stay out of last place in the first or second-worst division in the NFL this year. I hope the day comes where this NFC East bias bullshit comes to an end and the NFL starts giving us games people actually want to watch in prime time instead of relying on market size. The ratings don’t back it up that more people want to watch the Eagles and Commanders.

Does Jerry Jones have to meet his maker before we can just collectively move on from these teams in prime time so often? Whatever it takes, I’m ready for a change in how the NFL treats that division on the schedule.

NFL Week 8 Predictions

Spiritually, I should have nailed the correct score on Thursday night as I had the Packers beating Carolina 27-20. It ended 27-19 because a team that is now 2/11 on 2PC under Dave Canales thought it was being smart with this newfangled strategy of going for 2 early that I don’t think is a real difference maker, especially when you have put on tape that you suck far more than league average at these types of plays with your short QB.

NFL Week 8 Predictions

TEN-CIN: The Bengals can get to 5-2 and still objectively won’t have an impressive win in 2026. But after what they did in Miami, I don’t trust them not to let the Titans cover in the backdoor.

BAL-BUF: The Ravens narrowly lost their last two games at Buffalo in the 2024 AFC-DIV and Week 1 last year. It wouldn’t shock me if they found a way to lose this game by 1-3 points too. But I think the vibes are bad coming out of Baltimore after a 35-13 drubbing last week, Lamar might be rusty and not able to run 100%, and the Bills are rested off a bye week.

ARI-DAL: Would be a classic Dallas letdown spot. They’ve lost some games they were heavily favored to the Cards in recent years, including 2025. But I think they’ll win this week.

CLE-PIT: I think Aaron Rodgers is playing better than he was in the first meeting, and the offense showed it could sustain drives in Cleveland. Just have to avoid the sacks and picks, which I think he will at home. And I think with every win being a GWD for Cleveland, it’s about time for some regression for Deshaun Watson as they get to Predator in the 4Q of this one to take him down for the win and first place.

IND-JAX: Firesale going on in Indy. I think the Jaguars come back rested from London trips and start going on a run here with a win by 11+ to start here.

MIN-DET: One of the worst 6-0 teams I’ve ever seen, the Vikings should go down this week. But after the Lions beat GB 20-17 last week, it wouldn’t shock me if that’s the same score here too.

ATL-TB: Hardest division to get a read on other than none of these teams are going far in the playoffs. Baker Mayfield came back last week and barely had to throw for the team to score 43 points. I’m just going to pick them at home, though we’ll see if Penix can have success against that defense the way Kirk Cousins did when he was there.

LV-NYJ: Raiders could stop the slide here, but I think Geno Smith has one of his best games to stick it to the Raiders. Maybe even a Cousins interception by the defense that never gets any to get a start on the Mendoza era next time out after a fifth-straight loss.

LAC-LAR: Battle of Los Angeles and who is the most disappointing team in the NFL this season. You know, with the way the Rams blow leads and the way Justin Herbert has failed on seven straight 4QC/GWD attempts, I’m not sure I’d want to see him with the ball late in this one and a one-score margin. He’s due for a win at some point here after the Chargers have lost 9 straight. But I’m going to trust the Rams to get it done and win by 7+.

KC-DEN: It sounds like Rashee Rice and Jaylon Moore are back, but now the defense is down two corners (Sneed and Delane). That should help Bo Nix, who didn’t even try to throw deep in Week 1 but is coming off his most vertical game of 2026 vs. Arizona. I picked the Chiefs to go 10-7 and split the season series with Denver. I’m not backing away from it now. Denver wins and the Chiefs make a move or two before the trade deadline after another road loss to a contender.

NE-MIA: Not a game I’d bet on. We’ll see if the Dolphins can build off their first win in a home spot they’ve often had success against NE with over the years. But I’m still going to back the Patriots as I don’t like the talent on Miami.

PHI-WAS: Who knows? I’ll split the difference and take the Eagles to cover, Washington to win. It came down to a late 2PC in Week 1 but obviously the Eagles have lost a lot of talent since.

CHI-SEA: Really good offense (Ben Johnson) vs. defense (Mike Macdonald) matchup for these coaches. Johnson is 14-3 ATS in non-division games, and the last time he played a Macdonald defense (2024 Lions vs. Seahawks), his passing offense completed 100% of its 19 attempts. I don’t think Caleb Williams will come close to doing that against this defense, but the way you beat Seattle is having some balance (run the ball) and getting takeaways to force short fields. The Bears do those two things well, so I’m going with the upset here and backing Chicago.

2026 NFL Stat Oddity: Week 7

NFL Stat Oddity 2026
~ Scott ~ 2 Comments

If I’m just being honest, the Sunday action wasn’t very good in the NFL, and the best game of Week 7 was on Thursday night between the Patriots and Bears. A refreshing display of two young quarterbacks playing well from the 2024 draft.

But I think I know why things felt off on Sunday. Despite it bringing the week’s count to nine games with a comeback opportunity, we only had one lead change in the fourth quarter, and that happened 24 seconds into the fourth quarter in Minnesota against the Colts.

We had a few other games where a fourth-quarter tie was broken, including an overtime game in Houston. But those games involved some funky coaching decisions where the home team got lucky in Detroit, and the Browns got away with an egregious false start on their game-winning drive.

Sunday’s two island games in Paris and SNF were also low on possessions, so they didn’t take long to get through, and the stats were depressed from both. That added to some of the malaise of the day. Not that I expect things to get any better on Monday night, but Tanner McKee lighting up Dallas would be entertaining at least.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Packers at Lions: Game of the Week (But Not Really)

This had the makings (and yardage) of a fun shootout. But in the end, it was a 20-17 tussle in the NFC North. The Packers started and ended their day with missed field goals, and the Lions had their first turnovers (that’s plural) since Week 1.

I don’t know if Tom Brady had money on the Lions and his presence in the building led to the Packers missing a 26-yard field goal and 35-yard field goal (blocked) as only the LOAT could conjure, but the Packers had another terrible day on special teams. At least Josh Jacobs looked good in his return, scoring a touchdown and putting up 55 receiving yards. Regular running game was still a bit stagnant (19 carries for 60 yards).

Jared Goff threw for 303 yards, 153 to Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Jameson Williams hogged both touchdowns on a day where tight end Sam LaPorta had just one catch for 18 yards.

But the game was sloppy, and you can question some of the coaching. The Packers were aggressive early with three conversions on fourth down, though when they went to the well one time too many, they came up empty before halftime on 4th-and-4. The only good news is Jahmyr Gibbs answered that stop with a red-zone fumble with 0:19 left in the second quarter.

But Dan Campbell is going to do Dan Campbell things on fourth down, and maybe that rubs off on Matt LaFleur in these matchups. Campbell failed on a 4th-and-5 at the Green Bay 6 late in the third quarter when a chip shot field goal could have given him a 20-14 lead.

After the Packers tied the game at 17, the Lions had another decision on 4th-and-1 at their own 24 with just under 5:00 left. Campbell went for it again, and Gibbs was stuffed for a 2-yard loss. That decision drew the most ire of any coaching decision on Sunday. The fourth-down models out there were reportedly split on it, so you know it’s close at the very least.

I think it was a mistake that ended up not costing Campbell because he got lucky that the special teams ended up blocking the 35-yard kick with 3:21 left.

If you look at the play the Lions ran, they would have been lucky to get a yard. So, let’s say you go for it and convert it. You’re still 75 yards away from the end zone. For all you know, you might be punting after the next three snaps and with less time left, making it less likely you see the ball again. But that’s the successful side, leaving you 75 yards away from the end zone with possession.

On the flip side, if you get stopped like they did, you’re making it far more likely that the Packers have easy access to a score to go up 20-17 or 24-17. Then you’d need a desperate scoring drive. But you’re gifting them that field position. You don’t know they’re going to screw it up and not get the field goal.

I don’t buy the reason that “Green Bay controls the clock” with that much time. Good luck to them if you think they can run out the clock and kick a last-second field goal against a team that has four clock stoppages left. The Lions were likely going to get another possession, and this was a 17-17 game; not a 31-31 efficient shootout. Teams were making mistakes here. It wasn’t a crisp day.

So, I would have been fine with a punt there. It ended up working out as the Lions had the ball back with 3:21 left at their own 25 anyway. It’s as if they got the yard and 90 seconds magically disappeared. One completion to LaPorta and a roughing penalty practically put them in field goal range, which just feels so easy to do anymore when you gotta have it.

A neutral zone infraction on Green Bay on 3rd-and-5 gave the Lions an automatic first down after the 2-minute warning, which really hurt. The Packers were going to let Gibbs score (he had -425 odds to do so too) as their last hope on third down, but he wisely took a dive. Might want to learn how to slide better because he risked a season-ending knee or ankle injury to do it.

The Lions made the 22-yard field goal to get the 20-17 win and move to 4-2, which still has them in third place in the division with the Vikings (6-0) and Bears (5-2). I still think Chicago should probably win this division again as the team with the best chance to show real growth over last year and be very good on both sides of the ball. The Packers and Lions showed some of their dumb tendencies in this one, and the Vikings have that dreadful offense that shouldn’t be this dreadful.

But these games are important in a division that is aiming for history with back-to-back years with everyone above .500.

Chiefs at Seahawks: Super Bowl-Esque If You Mean LV and LIX

Had last season gone better and the Chiefs returned to another Super Bowl to face the 2025 Seahawks, it may have looked like Sunday night but worse with Kenneth Walker on the other side. Even with Walker on their side, the 2026 Chiefs were held to a single field goal and did not reach the red zone once in a 20-3 loss that is just the fifth loss where the Chiefs trailed by double digits for the entire fourth quarter with Patrick Mahomes at quarterback.

Was it inevitable? Successful offensive minds like Kyle Shanahan (49ers), Josh McDaniels (Patriots), and Sean Payton (Broncos) have had their cracks at the Seahawks since the calendar turned to 2026 and things haven’t gone well for them either. The 2026 Seahawks are doing some historic things on defense again under Mike Macdonald, and the Chiefs went into this one without their best wideouts and without both starting offensive tackles.

About the only proven way to beat this Seattle team is to win the turnover battle and get short fields to score on that defense. Even when Washington scored 33 points this year, they were +3 in turnovers and had just one drive longer than 43 yards (it was a 60-yard touchdown drive). The 49ers got to 32 points in Seattle with a return score and touchdown drives of 11, 18, and 74 yards.

If you have to go the distance against this defense, you are probably screwed. On Sunday night, each offense only had eight drives, and both quarterbacks threw one bad pick for the only turnovers. However, Darnold’s pick in the end zone wasn’t returned far enough before halftime, and Harrison Butker was short on a 58-yard field goal. A bad sign for his leg strength.

That also means 25% of the Chiefs’ drives ended with a Butker miss as he was off again from 45 yards after a long drive with 8:33 left to play. That one would have made it 13-6 and possibly set up an interesting ending. Instead, the Seahawks drove for another touchdown with Emanuel Wilson breaking a 21-yard scoring run to go over 100 yards and outclass Walker on the night. That also means the Chiefs’ eighth and final drive came down 20-3 with 3:36 left. I would have put Justin Fields at quarterback at that point.

When the Seahawks aren’t turning the ball over, they’re golden. JSN is the most unstoppable wideout right now, and he was great again with 9/150/1 against all the corners the Chiefs could throw at him. Of course, the Chiefs hadn’t been tested by good WRs during their 5-0 start. Not one bit.

The Chiefs played the easiest portion of their schedule to get to 5-0. In their first big test of the season in terms of a Super Bowl contender, they failed miserably with one of the worst-played games of the Mahomes era.

  • The Seahawks were 11-of-16 on third down, converting seven times on 3rd-and-6+.
  • Seattle’s speed was not going to let Walker beat them; he had 18 touches for 57 yards and never gained more than 7 yards on any play.
  • Xavier “Kadarius Toney” Worthy failed miserably in another game as de-facto WR1 with 11 yards on 6 targets and a drop that left Mahomes visibly frustrated.
  • Mahomes was only credited with one sack, but it was on an odd-looking play where it looked like he wanted to do a quarterback draw and fumbled with a sandwich hit in the open field. Even if he pulled up and wanted to throw, no one was open on the play.

This should be the low point of the season for Kansas City’s offense, which should at least get Rashee Rice back next week for a more important game in Denver. It was always going to be tough to overcome this defense of a desperate team that lost two straight, and the Chiefs never came close to matching Seattle’s intensity.

But in terms of showcasing yourself as a Super Bowl contender again, this game feels like a major red flag on where the Chiefs are in 2026, and that’s not good enough. All the roster flaws were on full display, and it’s unlikely to get much better for them unless by some miracle Josh Simmons decides to play and Tyreek Hill signs on and is 75% of what he once was. That still leaves some serious issues with the pass rush and one idiot kicker who is washed.

If the Chiefs had to face the Seahawks in the Super Bowl, that would probably not go well either. When the Chiefs are playing musical chairs with their offensive tackles against a great defense, you simply can’t trust them to be anything short of a disaster. I’m not sure I can name a team that has succeeded in those circumstances, and the fact this happens this frequently for the Chiefs is the most troubling part of it all. Two Super Bowls, the last two games with Mahomes against Houston and Los Angeles in 2025, and now Sunday night.

If this game isn’t a wake-up call to Reid and Veach that the roster isn’t good enough, then nothing will be this year. They can’t just write this off to tough week on the road shorthanded. Because it’s going to happen again. And again. And again.

And they haven’t proven they can stop it.

Bengals at Ravens: Whoops, They Did It Again

Back so soon, Baltimore? It was just last week when I pointed out in the Cleveland loss how the Ravens are repeating so many of their greatest hits from losses of year’s past whether it’s the blown double-digit leads, the Derrick Henry-led running game disappearing, or Lamar Jackson being out with an injury.

If there wasn’t so much competition from the Chargers, Rams, and Texans, the Ravens (4-3) would be in the mix for the most disappointing team in the NFL this season. This team was a Super Bowl favorite in the AFC and it has a worse record than Todd Monken’s Browns (5-2) and John Harbaugh’s Giants (4-2-1) now.

People will say Jackson being out is the reason, but it’s so much bigger and systemic than that. Even his absence from injury is another issue as fans and some media members are catching on that Jackson will seemingly not play until he feels he’s 100%. You can debate if that’s the right move for his career or not, but just understand there are definitely some quarterbacks who would do more to push to play in a big game like this one. But not Jackson.

And after the latest blown double-digit lead (13-0 at halftime), the Ravens (4-3) are in last place in the AFC North with the Bengals getting the early tiebreaker edge over them. Who knows, Sunday might be the last time this season the Ravens were ahead of the Bengals in the AFC North standings.

Once again, this team had no problem taking a 13-0 lead into the half with Tyler Huntley significantly outplaying Joe Burrow. How often do you see Lamar throw for 215 yards on 21 passes in the first half of a game? Huntley did that here and he’s the lesser passer.

But the second half was a completely different story. Tee Higgins made huge catch after huge catch on the way to 148 yards and a touchdown. The Bengals ripped off five straight touchdown drives, including two that started in Baltimore territory after a turnover on downs and Huntley interception.

The Baltimore offense was again very complicit in the blown lead and loss. After moving the ball so well in the first half, the Ravens followed a three-and-out punt with an ill-advised 4th-and-2 incompletion at the Cincinnati 12 to start the fourth quarter. I probably would have kicked the field goal there to regain the lead given what we know about Cincinnati’s history of trailing in the fourth quarter with Burrow. But tight end Cuevas wasn’t even looking for the ball on a wasted possession.

That kind of sums up the Ravens in these games. Poor attention to detail, lack of focus, no leadership to lean on, bad coaching decisions, and a roster filled with stars who aren’t closers. Suddenly, they’re getting hit for big plays on defense and aiding the opponent with turnovers.

That’s how you become the third team to lead by 13+ points at halftime and still lose by 20+ points. Hadn’t been done since 1951.

Meanwhile, this is the second week in a row the Ravens pitched a first-half shutout, had the halftime lead and lost the game. That only happened one time ever to John Harbaugh and twice under Brian Billick’s watch. This is two weeks in a row just seven games into Jesse Minter’s tenure.

When Minter was in LA the last two years, the Chargers only blew two fourth-quarter leads. Sunday was technically not a fourth-quarter blown lead, but it was a third blown lead of 10+ points in the second half for Minter.

Harbaugh was the scapegoat for these losses. What happens now that he’s gone and things are only worse? You have to put the blame on the players and the person picking the players. That’s why I never felt good about saying it was Harbaugh when Baltimore’s issues year after year were players making critical errors at the worst times.

With Buffalo and Jacksonville up next, the Ravens are really at a tipping point in their season. Things could spiral out of control here if they don’t step up.

Steelers vs. Saints: Some Belle de Jour in Paris

The 16-10 final score in the NFL’s first regular-season game in Paris is extremely misleading. This game had just 13 total possessions between the Steelers (7) and Saints (6), and I didn’t even have to exclude any kneeldown-only drives to get that absurdly low number. Eight of the 13 drives had at least 11 plays to them, so this was a very offensive game despite the score.

Is 13 possessions a record low? No, the 2023 Raiders vs. Broncos season opener had 13 drives too, and it was really 12 when you remove a kneeldown before halftime. But 13 is definitely in record territory.

How did these teams sustain so many long drives despite only combining for two touchdowns and 26 points? There were many near-turnover opportunities as the Steelers came up empty on a few chances at fumble recoveries. They also dropped a pick early from Tyler Shough, though they got him on a big one to start the third quarter. The Saints also missed a 52-yard field goal early in the fourth quarter, and the Steelers took a late field goal off the board due to a game-ending penalty on the Saints. They ran out the clock instead.

I thought Aaron Rodgers played a very smart game, knowing when to check it down, when to go deep, and when to throw the ball at the feet of a receiver who was going to get blown up for a loss of yards or no gain. Shough wasn’t bad either with no running game to speak of (14 carries for 11 yards) while Jaylen Warren had another 101 rushing yards for the Steelers.

In the end, the better team won after the Steelers technically ran out the final 5:52 in a 16-10 final. The key play was Rodgers using his legs to gain 8 yards on a 3rd-and-6 scramble.

The Steelers are 5-2 with a shot for some revenge on Cleveland next week. The Saints fall to 2-5 in the NFC South.

49ers at Falcons: Injuries Catch Up to San Francisco

Maybe the Chiefs should take note of how the 49ers ran their offense through their running backs and tight ends in Atlanta because of all the injuries at wide receiver. Most notably, Mike Evans (Achilles) missed Sunday’s game, his first full game missed this season, and it had an impact thanks to Christian McCaffrey also temporarily leaving the game after a dominant start that helped the 49ers to a 14-3 lead.

Eventually, those injuries hurt the 49ers on their way to their first loss of 2026. Down 19-14 in scoring territory in the third quarter, Brock Purdy forced a pass that was intercepted by Jessie Bates. Even though the Falcons started at their own 10, they put together a 90-yard march that ended with Drake London’s first touchdown of the season (finally) to take a 26-14 lead.

Purdy was then sacked on a 4th-and-10 at the Atlanta 23 as the Falcons racked up two sacks, two picks, and also forced George Kittle to fumble in the final minute of this one. You may have thought a huge Bijan Robinson day would be the path to an upset for Atlanta, but he rushed 20 times for just 63 yards. He did have 5 catches for 59 yards, and Penix threw three touchdowns while taking no sacks and throwing no picks.

The 49ers were able to get the ball back in a 26-20 game with 4:02 left and the ball at midfield. But Purdy never saw the defender for another huge interception with 2:34 left. The Falcons ran the ball three times and added an insurance field goal to go up 29-20.

The 49ers need to get Evans and Deebo back ASAP as it hasn’t been a good six quarters without them going back to the Washington game.

Colts at Vikings: At Least They Didn’t Blow a 33-Point Lead Again

Four years ago, Jeff Saturday’s Colts infamously blew a record 33-0 lead in Minnesota. In 2026, I’m not sure the Vikings can even score over 33 points like that nor will they need to with the way Brian Flores’ defense is performing.

The Colts led for most of the game with Jonathan Taylor’s 38-yard touchdown run on their opening drive. But they struggled to add to it, and the Vikings were down 10-6 in the fourth quarter before Kyler Murray threw a go-ahead touchdown to tight end T.J. Hockenson.

The Colts had nearly the full quarter to answer, but they followed a punt with a missed 48-yard field goal with 4:22 left as kicking has been an issue ever since Adam Vinatieri retired. Meanwhile, a Minnesota kicker actually made a clutch kick from 52 yards to give the Vikings a 6-point lead, which I normally hate. But in the context of facing Daniel Jones, it’s probably fine. Jones had 64 net passing yards on 28 pass plays in this one.

Jones had 94 seconds to lead a touchdown drive, but it lasted two snaps before he threw a pick right to Harrison Smith to end the threat. That’s how the Vikings get to 6-0 and the NFL’s last remaining perfect record. Hard to believe it’s them.

You’d like to see the offense getting better as Murray had his full receiving corps, and the Colts have been one of the worst defenses this season. But a paltry 16 points at home with Murray throwing for 150 yards was enough to get another win.

The real test is next week in Detroit for this team.

Rams at Raiders: If McVay Blew a 28-3 Lead Here…

The Rams scored four straight touchdowns to end the first half as they led 28-3. They basically did whatever they wanted offensively with three touchdown passes from Matthew Stafford, and both running backs topped 90 yards and a score on the ground.

Kirk Cousins hadn’t done much of anything when it was 28-6 going into the fourth quarter. But the Raiders strung together a couple of touchdowns after getting a deflected pick. This could have been a one-score game if they didn’t fail on both two-point conversions in the quarter, so it remained a 28-18 game with 13:12 left. Plenty of time.

If Sean McVay was going to blow a 28-3 lead to this team, he might as well hang it up in Los Angeles. But the Rams had a vintage drive to put it away that consumed almost half the quarter before another touchdown run by Blake Corum. The Raiders got a field goal (35-21) and the Rams ran out the final 4:10.

I don’t know if the Rams (3-4) are necessarily back, but it was a much-needed win to end the slide. Meanwhile, the Raiders continue to be exposed for their lack of weapons at WR and pieces on defense outside of Maxx Crosby. They might still think they’re competing for a wild card berth, but I’d start thinking about starting Fernando Mendoza and let the rookie shake out the growing pains to help him along for 2027.

Broncos at Cardinals: Bo Nix Does His Tim Tebow Thing Early in the Game

I find it funny how Bo Nix gets dinged for playing poor football for three quarters before going off in the fourth quarter. That’s what John Elway did for so many years and Denver fans loved it, and Tim Tebow was taking it to a crazier level in that 2011 season.

But Nix had a better game against a lesser Arizona defense this time, and he did something different in this one. He saw the opening for a long scramble that turned into a 62-yard touchdown run to take a 13-6 lead in the second quarter. Even Tebow and Elway never did that in the NFL.

Nix finished with an 80.3 QBR, though I can only imagine how high it’d be if that was a third-down scramble in the fourth quarter instead of a 2nd-and-7 play in the second quarter.

But that changed the complexion of the game, and R.J. Harvey took a short pass 52 yards for a touchdown in the third quarter for another big play to help Denver not have to rely on the fourth quarter this week. The Cardinals had the ball at the 1-yard line with first-and-goal at the 2-minute warning in a 30-16 game, so they were still going to need to recover an onside kick to make this interesting. But they couldn’t even get the first touchdown after an impressive goal-line stand by Denver to end this one.

Giants at Texans: Your First-Place New York Football Giants

With a division title a real possibility, I applaud John Harbaugh for sticking with J.J. McCarthy after his almost comeback last week from a 34-10 deficit. We all know what Jameis Winston is (and what he isn’t) by now, so why not see what you really have with McCarthy?

“Nine” didn’t disappoint either. He had two touchdown drives and the Giants missed two field goals in the first half alone as he hit 9-of-10 passes to start the day with a third-down drop by Malik Nabers thrown in there too. He was feeling it, because the Houston defense is no longer elite.

It’s not even good at this point, and I have a hard time understanding why when it’s still DeMeco Ryans’ scheme, and they haven’t been decimated by injuries like you’d expect to see drag a unit down. They just gave up 252 yards through the air to McCarthy, and the Giants also rushed for 188 yards, which proved critical in overtime.

It’s truly one of the most disappointing losses in franchise history after an impressive shootout win over Jacksonville in London a week ago. The Texans came home, they were a 10.5-point favorite, and they laid an egg. Sure, C.J. Stroud didn’t have any turnovers, Marvin Harrison Jr. caught his first touchdown, and Tank Dell even contributed a 43-yard catch on a deflected ball for his first action since a gruesome knee injury in December 2024.

But once again, offensive competency was not enough for the Texans, who forced overtime with a late touchdown drive. But the Giants won the coin toss and decided to kick, which I still think is the right strategy most of the time. Let Houston be bound by conservative three-down football and give the loose cannon McCarthy four downs to answer if he needs a do-or-die score.

It didn’t come to that. The Texans didn’t gain a yard on three plays for a quick punt, and McCarthy just had to complete one 9-yard pass to Nabers before his running game did the rest. Cam Skattebo broke off a 42-yard run, and he even slid to make sure he wouldn’t fumble the ball in another overtime after that got him effectively benched last week. Then they put Devin Singletary, the former Texans back, in the game and he finished them off with a 30-yard touchdown run to end it. No field goal shenanigans.

Just like that, the deflated Texans are 2-5 and feeling hopeless again while the Giants (4-2-1) lead the NFC East as the only team with a winning record in the division.

Browns at Titans: Another Predator Sequel in the Fourth Quarter

At this point, I swear Deshaun Watson is purposely playing like ass early to set up opportunities for game-winning drives late to endear himself to the fans. At least he threw for over 300 yards in this one. Nice defense, Saleh.

Even though Tony Pollard had a monster day (129 yards, 3 TD), it wasn’t enough for the Titans. Probably should have seen the warning flags early when their 14-0 lead was built on two touchdown drives that covered a total of 89 yards. The offense didn’t score again until the fourth quarter but at least Cam Ward was able to lead tying field goal and touchdown drives.

But with the game tied 24-24 in the final minute, Watson had the ball at his 45 with just 0:28 left when maybe the most controversial play of the game happened. Cleveland’s right tackle got away with an egregious false start that wasn’t called, and Harold Fannin took the short pass 36 yards to set up the winning field goal from 32 yards on the final snap.

I don’t know how you can miss that one, and I don’t know how there isn’t some mechanism in place in the final 2:00 whether it’s replay assist or being able to challenge something so obvious and game changing. Maybe the Browns take the 5-yard penalty and still hit a pass to kick the winning field goal, but that play should not have counted.

The Browns are 5-2, but I still see no reason to believe in them as a real contender. They slum it with the worst teams and are blowing through their clutch wins before Halloween.

Buccaneers at Panthers: The NFC South Is Destined to Suck

I really do hate this division, because once you start to think a team is figuring things out like Carolina, they just shit the bed their next game. This division produces some unseemly blowouts out of nowhere too like how we saw Carolina win 34-3 in Atlanta in Week 2.

But Sunday was an embarrassment at home for the Panthers and Bryce Young, who took five sacks and had three turnovers, including a fumble returned for a touchdown to make it 17-0 in the second quarter.

Baker Mayfield returned for Tampa Bay, but they could have won this game with a blindfolded Blaine Gabbert if they had to. Mayfield finished just 7-of-11 for 64 yards and a touchdown. The Buccaneers, who rushed for over 250 yards, are the ninth team in the modern era (second since 1979) to score at least 43 points with no more than 65 net passing yards.

I know division games can be weird, but 43-13? Back to the drawing board for the Panthers (3-3), who have a quick turnaround with Green Bay on Thursday night.

Dolphins at Jets: Crack Open the Faygo, 2008 Lions and 2017 Browns

Leave it up to the Jets to let the 2026 Dolphins get their first win in Week 7. The Stooges of the AFC East take care of their own so that the bottom isn’t rock bottom in the NFL. Not that I ever thought Miami was going to seriously challenge 0-17, but they won’t be joining the 2008 Lions and 2017 Browns as the only teams to go 0-16 or worse.

Miami’s offense had by far its best game of the season with rookie Caleb Douglas catching two touchdowns, Ollie Gordon rushed for 103 yards and a touchdown, and a huge sack of Geno Smith on third down forced a field goal in the fourth quarter when the Jets were 3 yards away from the tying touchdown. Miami added another long touchdown to Douglas, and then they were able to run out the final 3:17 on the clock to not give the Jets another chance in a 28-25 game.

In fact, it was a bit ballsy to go quarterback run on 4th-and-1 at the New York 49 with 2:00 left. If you get stopped there, the Jets are a first down away from game-tying field goal range. But Willis picked it up and the game was over. Miami finally has a win.

Next Week

Not crazy about Panthers-Packers on TNF after Sunday’s games. But it beats seeing another NFC East matchup. I think we get a break this week from the 9:30 AM games even with the clock turning back an hour.

The big 1 PM game should be Ravens-Bills, but how can we take anyone’s word for it that Lamar Jackson will actually play? If he’s “not close” to 100%, then I doubt we see him at this point as Baltimore’s season falls apart. Otherwise, Vikings at Lions is a good one that could finally hand the Vikings a loss. But I’ll be mostly watching Browns at Steelers in that slot.

Chargers at Rams is the LA Disappointment Bowl. Chiefs at Broncos is a lot more interesting now. Chiefs could very well lose that one too for similar reasons to Seattle game. Eagles-Commanders is more NFC East bullshit in prime time on Sunday night. Hate they didn’t flex that out. Chicago at Seattle could be very interesting on MNF. Another chance for Ben Johnson to show his value against a defense that many of his top peers have floundered against.

NFL 2026 Week 7 Predictions: MVP vs. OPOY Distinction Edition

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

Week 7 in the NFL is off to an entertaining start with Chicago’s 30-24 victory over the Patriots. We have some more quality matchups this Sunday, including a potential Super Bowl preview on Sunday night between the Chiefs (5-0) and Seahawks (3-3).

Chiefs at Seahawks: MVP vs. OPOY Distinction

Sunday night’s big game has the leading rusher (Kenneth Walker) and leading receiver/Triple Crown candidate (Jaxon Smith-Njigba) in the NFL. That makes both players heavy contenders for the Offensive Player of the Year (OPOY) award, which JSN won last year and Walker has the best odds for (+230) at the moment.

But some think both players should be high up there in the NFL MVP odds race as well. But Walker has just +8000 odds and isn’t even the highest non-quarterback as Jahmyr Gibbs (Lions) is +5000 at FanDuel. JSN is +40000, which is at least ahead of Sam Darnold (+50000), his struggling quarterback.

NFL MVP Odds from FanDuel
2026 NFL MVP Odds from FanDuel (10/24/2026)

Since 2007, every MVP winner except for Adrian Peterson in 2012 was a quarterback. Since 2019, every OPOY winner was a running back or wide receiver who led the league in the yardage stat for their position. I think that’s been valid too as quarterback is the most valuable position, and the MVP should almost always be the best quarterback that year. OPOY is a nice consolation prize to the yardage winner. The stat hound.

But given the lack of historic quarterback seasons post-COVID, there has been more clamoring for voters to think outside the box and honor another position like a running back, which used to win MVP with more frequency than today’s “almost never” approach.

The problem is most can never exceed the value of their quarterback, and Patrick Mahomes having almost 10x better odds at +900 than Walker also signifies the popularity contest aspect of this. Note that Jared Goff is only +2500 compared to +5000 for Gibbs, because Goff carries a negative stigma. Always has. Mahomes is still Mahomes; the guy who had the best start in NFL history without productive running backs in Kansas City.

But leave it up to some NFL fans/media to act like Kenneth Walker glamming it up for five games against the weakest portion of the Chiefs’ schedule is somehow a negative for Mahomes. I’ve already seen tweets that a Walker MVP would disqualify Mahomes from GOAT discussions, and that he’s being “carried” by his running back – who never played this well in Seattle by the way – and isn’t even as valuable to his team as Fred Warner, an off-ball linebacker who doesn’t even rush the passer.

Once again, the best quarterback always gets held to the most ridiculous standards. Mahomes goes his first eight seasons as a starter without a 1,000-yard rusher, and people couldn’t wait to use a 5-game run by Walker to diminish him. I can assure you this hasn’t happened to other QBs in comparable situations:

  • Did we not see Josh Allen somehow still get two first-place MVP votes in 2025 after James Cook won the rushing title?
  • Only Buffalo fans cared in 2024 that Lamar Jackson had a career year as a passer with Derrick Henry feeding off him in a mutually beneficial relationship in Baltimore.
  • No one was trying to belittle Tom Brady in 2004 when the Patriots added Corey Dillon and it helped him use more vertical passes instead of the dink-and-dunk short king he was in 2001-03.
  • The Rams traded for Marshall Faulk in 1999 and got a 1000-yard rushing/1000-yard receiving season out of him, but Kurt Warner was still the MVP and catalyst for that Super Bowl season and the birth of the Greatest Show on Turf.

Walker has played great, and a big part of his greatness is the way he’s broken tackles at an absurd rate. But without getting knee deep into an MVP discussion after six games, I just want to clarify that the MVP odds are a projection on what will happen the rest of the season rather than a current implied probability of who is leading so far.

And the odds are basically correct. Maybe Walker should be higher than +8000, but Mahomes is worthy of a top 3 ranking as the quarterback of the only undefeated team in the AFC who is leading the NFL in yards per drive and game on offense. Mahomes is still averaging 261.8 passing yards per game (ranked 9th) with the third-highest passing success rate (54.3%) in the league. That’s not someone getting carried by a RB.

Speaking of carry, look what happened in the game the Chiefs were pushed to the brink the most against the Colts in overtime, a 33-30 shootout. Mahomes threw for 382 yards and 3 touchdowns in that one, including some huge third-and-long conversions and multiple go-ahead drives in crunch time. He was the MVP of that game.

The Chiefs lead the NFL in scoring differential per game thru Week 6, and they have been accused of “playing with their food” in some of these games as they could have easily won by even bigger margins against the Chargers, Dolphins, and Raiders if they played smarter. They haven’t played a tough schedule at all, though they have arguably the toughest remaining slate in 2026.

But the game against the Colts was telling in who they had to rely on, and it’s going to happen again later in the season starting on Thanksgiving when the Chiefs have that gauntlet of Bills, Rams, Bengals on the road followed by the Patriots and 49ers. If Walker is still healthy and playing like this, then hats off to him. He’s probably been the most fun back to watch in the NFL this year since Le’Veon Bell in 2014. And he’ll probably win OPOY.

But if the Chiefs want to get back to doing Chiefs things like having an elite offense that gets the team the No. 1 seed and sets them up for another Super Bowl run, it’s going to have to be with Mahomes leading the way in most of those tough games later in the season. That’s why he’s the MVP candidate and Walker is still the OPOY candidate.

And Sunday night is maybe a great opportunity for Mahomes to step up, because he’s not going to have Rashee Rice again, his WR1. He already lost his best deep threat and I think best red-zone receiver in Tyquan Thornton. The Chiefs will also start two backup tackles on the road. That hurts Walker as well, but the loss of the wideouts combined with an ankle injury for Travis Kelce makes life much harder on Mahomes than anyone else this week as you know Seattle coach Mike Macdonald should cook up something good to avoid a Kenneth Walker Revenge Game getting dumped on their heads. It’s not the Seattle defense that is the problem; it’s Darnold and the offense.

The last time Mahomes played a Macdonald defense was the 2023 AFC Championship Game in Baltimore. He was on the money to Kelce early and they won 17-10. It might have to be that kind of score again with the injuries on offense. But it’s not normal for a HOF quarterback to have this much flux at receiver and offensive tackle like Mahomes has dealt with since 2022.

It’s even less common to have the level of success he’s continued to have despite these roster holes. Let him have Walker. He’s allowed to have something useful on offense around him.

NFL Week 7 Predictions

I kind of picked the push on Thursday night with the Bears winning by exactly 3, but I’m taking the win on the spread there. It was always Chicago by one score.

NFL Week 7 Predictions

PIT-NO: I think Aaron Rodgers stays hot in Paris against a bottom-ranked scoring defense. Also, I’m sure his wife would be pissed he didn’t have more time to show her around Paris (if she was real).

TB-CAR: Starting to trust the Panthers in this division with that offense, and I think Todd Bowles is in the territory of the first coach fired.

SF-ATL: No Mike Evans and Deebo? Speaking of the MVP discourse, let’s see what impact that has on Brock Purdy when he has JAGS at wide receiver and can only rely on future HOFers at TE, RB, and LT.. But I think the Falcons have a 2025 Buffalo or Rams type performance at home and steal this one.

CIN-BAL: Damnit Lamar, are we doing this again? The spread flipped about 4.5 points with the expectations he won’t be able to go again in a huge game for the AFC North. I don’t trust Tyler Huntley to score enough though it’d be nice to see him expose that Cincinnati defense that I still don’t trust as championship worthy.

NYG-HOU: No problem with giving J.J. McCarthy a shot when you know what Jameis Winston is. The Texans are not a bully on defense like they were in 2024-25. I’m still taking the Texans to win because the offense is looking good, but I think the Giants can at least stay within 10. Backdoor cover potential always there.

MIA-NYJ: Yuck. I just don’t think the Jets are good enough to trust an easy cover. I’ll hedge and take Miami ATS coming off the bye. Division games are ripe for weirdness.

CLE-TEN: They played a close one last year. You know the Browns are shaky at 4-2 when they’re only a 1.5-point favorite against this dreadful Titans team. But sad to say, I could see Watson getting a 5th GWD of the season here.

IND-MIN: Are the Colts going to blow a 33-point in this one like in 2022? Where’s Jeff Saturday when you need him? I still don’t believe in Minnesota, but I think they find a way to win another close one for KOC.

DEN-ARI: Denver is a rough watch and another team farming GWDs for playing poorly the first three quarters. The Cardinals are coming off that big upset of the Rams but that was a division game. I’ll take the Broncos to lock down Brissett and get the win even if it’s by 5 points.

LAR-LV: At this point, who knows? The Rams could beat or lose to any team in the NFL on any given Sunday this year. Losing Davante Adams hurts. Puka left a practice injured too this week. It’s not looking great and the Raiders have played teams (minus NE) tough. Could easily see Cousins outdueling Stafford late for the win here, but I guess I’m going down with the ship and still picking the Rams another week.

GB-DET: Big one here for the NFC North. I’m going to take the Lions for coming off a bye at home with a great offense that is clicking right now. Packers are playing better though, and with the Lions only turning it over once in Week 1, you never know when that regression disaster game is coming when they turn it over 4-5 times and lose. But I don’t love the 3-point spread for GB (I’d be taking them at 5.5 probably), so I’m going to side with Detroit for now.

KC-SEA: I had a long preview written for this game and I’m not seeing the link available on that site. Bummer. But I said after Super Bowl 59 I would not pick the Chiefs in a big game against an elite defense when they had multiple linemen out. This is another one of those games, and while the Seahawks haven’t shown an overwhelming pass rush this year, they are capable of greatness on that side of the ball. Still No. 1 in yards allowed at the moment .

Throw in the injured receivers for the Chiefs, the lack of moves they’ve made at that position after the Raiders game, and I just see them struggling on the road here offensively. Can still win if Darnold plays poorly and throws some picks forcing it to JSN. I kind of want to pick the Chiefs to win a 17-14 game here (same score Denver beat Seattle last week), but I could see the Seahawks winning a 23-16 game too with Darnold hitting some YOLO balls this week against a Chiefs defense that hasn’t been tested much either by the schedule.

DAL-PHI: Can the Cowboys go for the trifecta of prime-time losses? I absolutely think Tanner McKee can pull this off and look like 2017 Nick Foles against that defense. It’s that bad. Someone has to win a fvcking game in the NFC East again this season. Why not the Eagles at home against the team they hate most?

2026 NFL Stat Oddity: Week 6

NFL Stat Oddity 2026
~ Scott ~ 3 Comments

Some people are letting Week 6 upsets lead them to believe the NFL is rigged. Sunday certainly had a lot of weird fantasy/betting results in terms of who was putting up the yards and touchdowns. I won’t dispute that fact after my new betting strategy failed miserably in its first weekend.

But as for the outcomes on the scoreboard, let’s not forget divisional games are often weird. The Cardinals beating the Rams and the winless Titans beating the Cols on the road are both divisional upsets. Those teams know each other better than most, and the Rams were dealing with a new coach (Mike LaFleur) who was Sean McVay’s offensive coordinator the last three seasons.

Still, the Arizona Cardinals having more wins at SoFi Stadium than the Rams and Chargers combined after Week 6 sounds fake as hell. Not rigged, because who in the world would want to produce these standings?

It’s also true that a lot of games are close this season as we had 10-of-13 games with a comeback opportunity this week. Four more teams blew a double-digit lead, bringing the season total to 17 in just six weeks. Some teams can’t seem to get out of their own way in crunch time while others are thriving as the Bills and Browns are both 4-1 at game-winning drive opportunities behind rookie head coaches.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Texans vs. Jaguars: Game of the Week

Guess I slept on most of one of the best international games the NFL has ever produced. I figured this would be a good one and I had the Texans winning it, but I did not expect both quarterbacks to throw for over 300 yards, 3 touchdowns, and take no sacks. Both threw a pick in the end zone, but that just added to the intrigue and late-game strategy in what was really the last stand for Houston competing in the AFC South after that 0-4 start.

But we saw Marvin Harrison Jr. make an instant impact with three catches for 34 yards. Not huge numbers but pretty good for him in his first game. We also saw Travis Hunter living up to that two-way draft potential with a touchdown catch followed by an interception on back-to-back drives in the fourth quarter. Impressive player.

Both of these teams have struggled giving up yardage to wide receivers. They came in ranked No. 32 (Jaguars) and No. 30 (Texans) in that area, and it didn’t get better in this game even if Nico Collins and Parker Washington didn’t dominate. The other players stepped up.

Houston was always better than its 0-4 record as the offense has been better than expected, but the vaunted defense blew three leads in the fourth quarter. This could have easily been a fourth as the Jaguars did rally back from a 31-21 deficit to tie the game with 1:55 left after Cam Little’s 60-yard field goal.

About that tying drive…Is it almost a curse to have a kicker with great range in today’s NFL? I think in the past, a team facing a 4th-and-4 with the prospects of a 60-yard field goal would have gone for it. The Jaguars still had three timeouts too, so it was possible to get the ball back if they were stopped. Also possible if the kick was missed. But that used to be such a tough kick, and someone like Little makes it look routine now.

But I think if Liam Coen wanted to go for that one, he would have been justified. They still may very well have ended the drive with a tying field goal, but at least they would have used more clock and made the likelihood of overtime greater.

Instead, the Texans had a full 1:49 to work with, and they milked it for all its worth. A couple of short passes to Woody Marks was enough to get into field goal range, and the Texans worked the clock beautifully to set up the 49-yard field goal as the very final play. No shenanigans like last week in giving the Jaguars a chance to get Little in position as he could probably hit from 70 if he had to.

Very good win for the Texans, who I think are still dangerous at 2-4. I think they’re better than some of the 4-2 teams right now. But they have to get on a run like they did last year, and the defense clearly isn’t as good as it was in 2024-25. Though, if Stroud can keep playing like this – he’s getting Tank Dell back this week too – then they have a shot for the playoffs.

Cardinals at Rams: Super (Disappointing) Team

The Rams were a 12.5-point favorite in this one. It’s not like we haven’t seen Sean McVay’s team blow a game as a big favorite before. He’s only done it more than anyone since 2017.

But this felt different. The Cardinals seemed to not respect the Rams’ offense and blitzed Stafford effectively. He struggled to get to 200 yards late in the game. No matter what you think about the kicking situation in LA, there’s no excuse for this offense to have one touchdown on nine drives as they trailed 15-9 late into the fourth quarter.

Just continuous sloppy play by the Rams, whether it was a Tyler Higbee fumble in scoring territory, or a false start penalty that led to Stafford trying to throw a screen on 4th-and-8 (?) in the final minutes.

But Puka Nacua did make a 43-yard catch that got the offense going, and Colby Parkinson’s 6-yard touchdown put the Rams ahead 16-15 after the punter (Evans) made the extra point after lightweight kicker Blake Grupe tore his ACL trying to make a tackle on a kickoff earlier in the game.

However, Parkinson being ruled a touchdown instead of inches short was probably a blessing in disguise for the Cardinals. We just covered a late-game scenario in Jaguars vs. Texans where you could argue the Jaguars should have gone for the fourth down to not leave so much time for Houston.

I really think the NFL has changed a lot in the last few years with kickers getting even more range (K-balls help, I guess), and the new kickoff rules promote both a shorter field after a touchback (35) and more longer returns are possible now. It’s just not that hard to set up a long field goal and make it these days.

In this situation, the Cardinals were out of timeouts with 52 seconds left. The Rams faced 2nd-and-3 at the Arizona 6, so they could get a first down without the touchdown too. I’m not advocating that a team should take a knee and run clock here, or that Parkinson should have purposely came up inches short to run the clock. You take the touchdown when you can, but at the same time, you can call plays that dictate how possible that touchdown is too.

Given the clock and timeout situations for both teams, I think the Rams scoring on second down was costly. Sure enough, without a real kicker to handle the kickoff, the Rams kicked a touchback and the Cardinals were at their 35 with 47 seconds left. Maybe not the greatest situation to be in, but not a bad one for a 12.5-point underdog as they only needed a field goal.

And it took a single play to get into range after a 21-yard completion with a bullshit 15-yard penalty tacked on for the hit that was unavoidable. Just like that, the Cardinals were at the 29. After three runs to burn the Rams’ timeouts and get a little closer, the Cardinals made the 43-yard field goal to drop the Rams to 2-4 and last place in the NFC West.

Jacoby Brissett is now just 7-27 (.206) at 4QC opportunities, but that’s a memorable upset for him and the Cardinals. Just another regrettable loss for the Rams, who are quickly falling apart as they don’t have a kicker and they lost Davante Adams (hamstring) for 6-10 weeks.

I don’t feel confident that the Rams can rebound from this, because the super team we were promised on paper never existed. The Rams never took the field this season in a game with Myles Garrett, Aaron Donald, and Trent McDuffie (out Sunday) all active.

That’s still no excuse for blowing these games against the Broncos, Bills, and Cardinals the way they did. It’s almost like by sharing a stadium, the curse of the Chargers has consumed the Rams now.

Ramming.

Ravens at Browns: The Old Familiar Sting

Sunday was nothing new for the Ravens as you can take your pick of past headlines from their games and apply it to this 13-10 loss in Cleveland:

  • With Lamar Jackson out, the Ravens lost another low-scoring game in Cleveland.
  • Baltimore blew another 10-point lead after halftime, adding to their league lead since 2018.
  • Young kicker Tyler Loop had another key miss from 49 yards away that could have made it a 10-point game with a quarter to play.
  • Derrick Henry had another costly fumble in the fourth quarter, which led to a 35-yard game-tying touchdown drive for the Browns.
  • The defense was flagged for DPI on third down to extend Cleveland’s drive for a touchdown too.
  • Unable to close offensively, the Ravens went three-and-out on their last two drives.
  • Deshaun Watson hit a 33-yard pass to Jerry Jeudy on a 3rd-and-5, leading to the game-winning field goal instead of getting the offense off the field for Baltimore.

Jesse Minter’s commitment to the Harbaugh bit is something else. Meanwhile, Todd Monken may not be getting great efficiency out of Watson, who threw for 164 yards after taking 5 sacks. But he’s getting timely plays out of him, and the defense has been better than expected after trading Myles Garrett to the Rams.

I still think the Browns are fool’s gold at 4-2, but they are at least finding ways to win games that the Ravens keep finding ways to lose.

Steelers at Buccaneers: The Rodgers-McCarthy Comeback You’ve Never Seen Before

I used to annually grill Aaron Rodgers and Mike McCarthy for a decade in Green Bay where they would almost never have the sort of comeback win they had together on Sunday in Tampa Bay for the Steelers.

In Green Bay, there was just one game where Rodgers and McCarthy won after the Packers trailed by double digits in the fourth quarter. It was in the opener to their final season together (2018) against the Bears when they were down 20-3 before winning 24-23.

On Sunday, the Steelers looked horrible for three quarters, especially on offense and special teams. Rodgers was taking sacks, he narrowly avoided a pick-six (dropped), and kicker Chris Boswell seems broken. They were fortunate to be playing an undrafted rookie quarterback in Jalon Daniels instead of a veteran like Baker Mayfield.

But everything changed after the first play of the fourth quarter after Rodgers, trailing 16-3, drilled a pass to D.K. Metcalf for 17 yards to convert 3rd-and-16. From there, it was all Steelers. Daniels threw a pick, the Steelers settled for a field goal, then Boswell redeemed himself with a 58-yard field goal to tie the game. Jamel Dean, the former Buc, picked off Daniels to set up a 20-yard field goal after the Steelers failed to punch it in from the 1.

Again even a rookie quarterback was able to start from his 35 with 1:21 left and easily got the game-tying field goal that forced overtime. I agree with the decision for Tampa to go on defense first. Hope you sack Rodgers and end a drive, so you only need a field goal to win. Then if you give up a touchdown as they did, at least you’re giving Daniels four downs to work with the whole field. No disagreement in strategy there.

But the Steelers did get that touchdown as Germie Bernard capped off his big day with his first touchdown. He should be the WR2 as I saw more out of him in one preseason game than what Roman Wilson has done in Pittsburgh. But the injuries to Michael Pittman Jr. and Wilson opened the door for Bernard on Sunday, and he was very good. Like a Randall Cobb type for Rodgers.

Daniels needed a touchdown. He was able to overcome one 4th-and-9 with a scramble, but on 4th-and-8 at midfield, a well-timed blitz led to the second sack of the day for Jalen Ramsey to end the game.

This is the first time since the 2002 AFC Wild Card vs. Cleveland that the Steelers won after trailing by 13 points in the fourth quarter. Yes, the Tommy Maddox vs. Kelly Holcomb shootout. Yes, that also means Ben Roethlisberger never did this in his HOF career despite having more overall comebacks than Rodgers. Sure, he did put the team on top in a playoff game against Jacksonville after trailing by 18 points in the fourth, but the Steelers found ways to blow his big comeback attempts.

The Steelers get one behind Rodgers and they’re 4-2 before heading to Paris to take on the Saints. It’s the kind of comeback I certainly didn’t expect from Rodgers and McCarthy after seeing how bad this game was for 45 minutes. But they got it done.

Bears at Falcons: Caleb Williams’ Big Return

It looks like Ben Johnson’s offense works just fine when he’s playing non-NFC North defenses. Caleb Williams returned and had a 30-of-36 for 305 yards passing game that is more akin to the kind of offense you want to see from this team. One where Luther Burden (95 yards) and Colston Loveland (65 yards and a touchdown) are leading the way over Kalif Raymond. They also needed this from Caleb after the running game was mostly contained (29 carries for 95 yards).

But even though the Bears took a 31-7 lead on the first play of the fourth quarter, they had to sweat this one out a little. The Falcons attempted what would have been the first 8+8+8 comeback in NFL history and got two-thirds of the way there thanks to the offense coming to life and forcing a fumble in between scores.

Johnson’s vaunted offense was faltering and the Bears went three-and-out again. Michael Penix had plenty of time with 3:34 left. But in typical Atlanta fashion, a holding penalty changed a first down into a 3rd-and-16, and he was strip-sacked with 2:54 left. The Bears gained two first downs and ran out the clock to escape with the win that was sweatier than it needed to be.

Chargers at Chiefs: Is Kansas City Great or Are the Chargers This Terrible?

The Chiefs improved to 5-0 with a 22-6 win over the now 0-6 Chargers that left a lot of fans wondering just how good this team is, or just how bad the Chargers really are.

The Chiefs could certainly be accused of “playing with their food” in this one as Andy Reid was conservative, kicking three times on 4th down with 1-2 yards to go inside opponent territory. The red zone was a struggle as Patrick Mahomes threw an interception (his only real mistake of the game) while trying to throw a ball away under pressure, and Kenneth Walker was stuffed on a 4th-and-1 run at the goal line as that’s the one area he pales in comparison to 2024-25 Kareem Hunt. It also took the Chiefs deep into the game before finally getting their first sack since Week 1 against an amateur offensive line.

Kansas City also brought back the “obligatory fumble” on a bad special teams play with a fumbled punt after Remigo went backwards on what would have been fantastic field position for the Chiefs in the third quarter. Harrison Butker also missed a field goal and extra point. Vintage 2018-22 “We can only beat ourselves” Chiefs are back.

But in a league where 10 of the 13 games this week were so close in the fourth quarter, you have to give the Chiefs credit for playing underwhelming, sometimes stupid football and still winning 22-6. Keep in mind the Chargers were 0-5 at comeback opportunities this season, yet they trailed by at least 13 points for the entire second half in this one.

That’s pretty good for a Kansas City team that was missing its two best wide receivers and playing most of the game with two backup offensive tackles. It was also a good showing for Xavier Worthy (caught all 7 targets for 73 yards) and rookie Cyrus Allen had a nice 23-yard catch from Mahomes that looked like they’ve been doing this for a long time.

But the Chiefs will get a tougher test in Seattle in prime time. That will give us a much better idea of where this team is as a Super Bowl contender this season. Still, beating the Dolphins and Chargers by solid margins without playing that well is an encouraging sign.

Titans at Colts: The One That Got Chris Ballard Fired

Full disclosure: I was a legitimate Colts fan from 2002-2019. They were my second-favorite team behind the Steelers, and it was because they played a different brand of football (pass heavy and all the dramatic comebacks), Peyton Manning was my favorite player, then they drafted a generational talent in Andrew Luck in 2012.

When Luck retired, my interest waned, and it was replaced by the way the Chiefs were playing with Patrick Mahomes. The difference is I’m not a Chiefs fan; I’m a Mahomes fan. That means I technically have to root for the Chiefs to do well so that he does well, but I will never say I’m a Chiefs fan in the way that I was content with my fandom for the Colts for two decades.

With that said, the Colts became irrelevant to me once Luck retired. They weren’t fun to watch anymore with their annual acquisition of a washed quarterback, and I think going for Carson Wentz, one of my whipping boys, in 2021 really was the final nail in the coffin for my fandom.

The Colts have really done nothing since Luck retired too except embarrass themselves. Sunday was maybe the lowest point yet after they blew a 13-0 lead at home to the winless Titans. That was enough to finally get GM Chris Ballard fired after a brutal tenure.

Even when the Titans win, it still feels like a loss for Cam Ward as he threw for just 102 yards in the game. The Titans took the lead in the fourth quarter on a blocked punt for a touchdown, which sounds exactly like the kind of touchdown you’d expect in a game between these teams.

But the Colts failed to come back late, and they’re 2-4 and irrelevant to the season just as they have been for years. They’re turning into the Titans on a level of “Who Gives a Fvck?” and that’s sad to see for a franchise that used to be a huge source of entertainment for me.

Bills at Raiders: Not Ready for the Big Boys

The Raiders’ 3-0 start always felt a bit fraudulent since it came against the Dolphins, Chargers, and Saints. Two of those teams are still winless too. The Raiders haven’t won ever since Klint Kubiak said “we’re going to win the game” at halftime against the Chiefs. They lost that game by 3, got clobbered in New England, and now lost a 33-30 game at home to the Bills.

I think Kubiak is going to have them moving in the right direction, and they can be a force if Fernando Mendoza is the real deal, giving Kubiak a quarterback with mobility that Kirk Cousins just lacks. They also need to find some more defenders as it’s really a one-man show with Maxx Crosby.

But this game is just another sign that the Raiders aren’t quite ready to beat the big boys in the AFC. It also is another sign that the Bills don’t have a Super Bowl-caliber defense. Another 33-30 game, another one where they blew a 10-point lead and had to get another  touchdown to break a tie.

Allen becomes the 10th fastest (149 games) and fourth youngest QB to 30 game-winning drives (playoffs included).

NFL Quarterbacks with 30 Game-winning Drives (GWD)

However, I’m also not convinced the Bills are improving in the passing game. There is way too much reliance on off-script plays from Josh Allen, and that drive that ended with his long shovel pass touchdown was a great example of how so much of this offense is fishing for flags right now. The Raiders were penalized twice on Allen incompletions on that drive, including a 3rd-and-9 that would have been a three-and-out.

I’m not sure D.J. Moore is the magic cure here either when he returns. They just need to find more ways of getting guys open and throwing on time. What they’re doing is working for now, but I don’t see the defense getting better, and I think they’ll find it tougher when they aren’t playing teams with their heads up their ass like the two Los Angeles teams, or a Raiders team that just lacks the real talents at WR and defense.

The Bills are just scraping by to win shootouts in September and October, but that doesn’t present much confidence for a winning streak in January and actually playing in February for a change.

Cowboys at Packers: The Game That Wouldn’t End

I’ve seen some slogs on SNF, but this one takes the cake. I agree with Cris Collinsworth that the first quarter was exciting with both defenses going aggressive to force mistakes. But after that, it was so clear that the Packers were the better team, Dak Prescott didn’t bring his A game, and the Cowboys were just never really in the game. A far cry from 40-40 overtime tie no matter how many flags the refs tried to throw to keep this alive.

The Cowboys are a poorly-coached team with a rubbish defense, and the Packers are finally hitting their stride with Christian Watson and Matthew Golden leading the way for Jordan Love in the passing game. Golden had 6/104/1 and it could have easily been more if he could catch a few he dropped.

The Packers simply own Dallas and have done so for the last 15 years.

Saints at Giants: J.J. McCarthy Leads One of the Greatest Almost Comebacks in NFL History?

I like a good “almost comeback” story in the NFL.

In Week 2 of the 1992 season, the Giants were down 34-0 to the Dallas Cowboys in the third quarter. The Giants scored four touchdowns to make it 34-28, but when they got the ball back with 3:42 left, they went three-and-out and punted it back with 2:07 left. Dallas, which would go on to win the Super Bowl that year, ran out the clock. Bummer, as that would have been the biggest comeback in NFL history if the Giants pulled it off.

That’s my go-to game for the best almost comeback in NFL history, so Sunday’s result wasn’t even the best one in Giants history. Still, what a crazy finish after the Saints, who always seem to give the Giants problems, were up 34-10 with 11:31 left.

  • J.J. McCarthy entered the game for a struggling Jameis Winston and promptly threw a pick too.
  • But the Saints fumbled two plays later, so McCarthy, or “Nine” got the ball back with 9:31 left.
  • More than half the quarter was gone before the Giants finally scored a touchdown with a 2PC with 7:00 left to make it 34-18.
  • The Saints were a bit dumb in throwing two incomplete passes to stop the clock and punt it back after a 65-second possession.
  • McCarthy was throwing deep YOLO passes and made it work for another quick touchdown drive, and this time the 2PC failed. It was 34-24 with 5:06 left.
  • The Saints again went three-and-out on a quick possession.
  • McCarthy led a drive that saw him spike the ball with 2:08 left at the 23 to get a 41-yard field goal (34-27). Interesting decision to save the two-minute warning with the Giants down to two timeouts.
  • The Giants kicked deep, and even though the Saints wisely returned it to use up the 2MW stoppage, they still ran it three times and punted.
  • McCarthy had 57 seconds to drive 71 yards for the potential tie or win, and he got things started with a 28-yard scramble.
  • After two more completions and some spikes, the Giants faced 4th-and-1 and were 14 yards away from the end zone. The rally came up short after McCarthy’s pass to Likely fell incomplete, ending what would have been an insane comeback from an unlikely hero.

Nine threw for 243 yards despite only playing part of the fourth quarter. With Jaxson Dart done for the season and Jameis Winston not playing the most inspiring football, I almost think you should just start McCarthy and see what happens.

Panthers at Eagles: It’s Truly Over in Philadelphia

The bigger news than this game is that Jalen Hurts has several blood clots in his lungs and his season is over with his career a question mark. I had a pulmonary embolism in 2016, and my main symptom when I knew things weren’t right was a fast heartbeat at rest and an impending sense of doom. The latter is a real medical symptom.

An impending sense of doom is apt for the 2026 Eagles as it’s never been more over for a team after their fourth-straight loss. Bryce Young and the Panthers played well on the road, and backup Tanner McKee had his shot in a 19-14 game with 9:32 left. But one bad snap doomed the drive right away, setting up a 2nd-and-22 and another three-and-out before the Panthers added an insurance score following the Eagles’ 8-yard punt. Yikes.

Hurts will take blood thinners, which I was on for nine years before getting my doctors to agree I could stop in 2025. Other athletes, including Victor Wembanyama, have been able to continue playing after a DVT clot, so I wouldn’t write off Hurts just yet.

But I really think the negative fallout from how this was handled and the way the Eagles are falling apart here is going to get someone canned, and head coach Nick Sirianni feels like a good candidate for that as I’m not sure what he really does for the team anyway. He’s always been a coordinator merchant.

It’s a good thing the Eagles won that Super Bowl in 2024, because that era is over. Windows don’t stay open for long in this league.

Jets at Patriots: Trivial AFC East Scrimmage

The Patriots continued heating up on offense against A.J. Brown’s best wishes as he had drops in his return to action. But Drake Maye threw three touchdowns without taking a sack, and Geno Smith had a costly pick in the fourth quarter when the Jets were down 23-13 and across midfield.

The Patriots nearly ran out the final half of the quarter before settling for a short field goal to make it 26-16. The Jets tacked on a field goal with 32 seconds left, but they weren’t able to get the onside kick and this one was over.

New England (4-2) is still right there behind the Bills (5-1) in the AFC East. Once again, the Jets (2-4) and Dolphins don’t matter (0-5). But two stooges aren’t as bad as Three Stooges.

Next Week

Patriots-Bears is a nice TNF matchup with young quarterbacks. I guess I’ll have to set the alarm early for Sunday with the Steelers and Saints in Paris, and the NFL picked about the worst week possible for that game to be there.

The 1 PM slate is all about Bengals-Ravens, but that’s not a very good game if Lamar Jackson can’t go. Might be Cincinnati’s year in the AFC North if they get to play Tyler Huntley (again).

Green Bay at Detroit is carrying the late window. Good game there. Chiefs at Seahawks is not quite as good as it would have looked a few weeks ago, but I can’t wait to see what plan Macdonald has for Kenneth Walker. Might be the first time you see a team truly take him away and make Mahomes try to win with those wideouts and tackles. Good chess match.

Dallas at Philly on MNF? Yuck, I think I’d rather watch an obscure British comedy series on Tubi or another Carrie remake I haven’t seen yet. Fvck the NFC East bias.

NFL 2026 Week 6 Predictions: Can a Prime-Time Favorite Just Win in Regulation? Edition

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

The NFL kicked off Week 6 with a bit of history as you had three straight prime-time games in the regular season go to overtime since Sunday night. But this Thursday was a bit of a dud when Bo Nix tied the record for most game-winning drives through three seasons (15) in the most Bo Nix way possible by throwing for 107 yards on 27 attempts in a 17-14 overtime win.

The GWD was set up by another Sam Darnold interception, and Nix had two runs for 3 yards on an 8-yard drive that did not gain a first down.

I don’t know how Nix keeps doing this Elway-meets-Tebow thing as that’s now 12 game-winning drives in his last 20 starts. But with that win, that’s now 10 straight prime-time games in the NFL where the underdog won outright. The last favorite to win was the Rams on MNF against the Giants in Week 2.

I had to look up how insane that is, so I went back to 2006 when the NFL brought back Thursday Night Football. The 10-game streak of underdogs winning outright dwarfs everything as the next closest streak was 6 games, and that was during the 2020 COVID season where you had empty stadiums and record-setting offensive numbers.

Notice that three of the four streaks came in Sept/Oct. where the spreads may not be as accurate with everyone trying to get a read on these teams early in the season. Still, it’s been a wild streak as the previous worst record for favorites in any 10-game stretch since 2006 in prime time was 2-8.

We’ll see if it can continue another week.

NFL Week 6 Predictions

I expected Denver to win basically the way they did against Seattle (by capitalizing on Sam Darnold mistakes to win by 3 points and without an impressive offensive display.)

HOU-JAX: Looking forward to this one actually as I think it’s Houston’s last shot to compete for the AFC South this year. I’m actually going to go with them as I think the Jaguars could struggle with their backup LT against those Houston edge rushers (Anderson Jr. is playing great), and Houston’s offense is starting to figure things out. Jaguars have been more consistent this year but division games are always tough.

CHI-ATL: Sounds like we’re getting Caleb Williams vs. Michael Penix as the QBs. Penix is still technically 0-7 at GWDs even though he’s put the team in position multiple times to win. But I think Chicago bounces back in a big way with Caleb and wins this one late.

BAL-CLE: Another week without Lamar, but I think Tyler Huntley can hold it down and I don’t see the Browns scoring a ton here. That 3-1 start was pretty much a mirage.

NYJ-NE: The Patriots have had a few good games in a row now and usually take care of the Jets with few problems. I don’t expect much out of this game.

NO-NYG: Saints have given the Giants a ton of problems over the years, but I think Jameis gets it done at home as I just don’t trust the Saints right now.

TEN-IND: Division games can always be tougher than expected, but the Titans just lost 26-3 to winless Houston last week. This team just looks lost to me. I can’t trust them to cover and the Colts have been consistently beating them under Steichen.

CAR-PHI: In a normal week I wouldn’t feel bad at all with Tanner McKee starting for Jalen Hurts (blood clot). But these are not normal times for the Eagles. There’s no Saquon, A.J. Brown, or Lane Johnson for McKee this week. Panthers had the bye week too and the Eagles are coming off that shocking London loss. It wouldn’t surprise me if the Panthers win by 3 points for the Eagles to steal a cover, but I’m just going to go with the healthier, better rested team in Carolina that should be able to put up some points. They should have won in Philly in 2024 if Mr. Raccoon Eater (Xavier Legette) didn’t drop that TD.

PIT-TB: By my count, Aaron Rodgers is just 6-6 in the state of Florida with some of the ugliest losses of his career. Florida is where you go to die after retirement, but Rodgers is on a good streak of games with 3 TD passes. However, he’s down some WRs here, and the Bucs didn’t look so bad with Jalon Daniels in Dallas. He’ll start again for an injured Baker. The Steelers should win a road game eventually this season, but I’m just going to side with the Bucs winning this one at home as I think the Steelers lack the WRs to score many points, and I can see a mobile Daniels giving them problems on scrambles and broken plays. Bowles should blitz Rodgers too and test that OL.

ARI-LAR: Cards aren’t an explosive offense right now, and I think McVay is genuinely pissed at losing that Buffalo game. I think he’ll run it up here and the Rams win big to get back to .500. Don’t put it on a new kicker. Just kick a bad team’s ass.

BUF-LV: The Raiders were destroyed by the Patriots last week. They should play much better at home against a bad Buffalo defense, but I think Kirk Cousins’ lack of mobility will continue to give him some issues, and Greg Rousseau is having a special start for the pass rush. I think the Bills win by at least a TD.

LAC-KC: I liked the underdog line a lot more at +9.5, but this has to be your classic Chargers cover, Chiefs win type of game most likely. It doesn’t sound like Mahomes will have Josh Simmons or Rashee Rice, so another game without LT1 and WR1 (and his true best WR in Tyquan Thornton) for him. But they have Kenneth Walker, Kelce should step up, and Justin Herbert is on an 0-for-7 streak at GWDs.

Still, it’d be such a classic NFL thing for the 0-5 team to beat the 4-0 team in a division game. I do think it’s a game where the Chiefs will struggle. Maybe seeing that defense will wake up Herbert the way Buffalo brought Drake Maye back to life two weeks ago. But the Chiefs can’t afford to blow this one in a tough AFC race with harder games to come. I think they win but won’t cover.

DAL-GB: Here we go in prime time again with teams that played to a 40-40 tie on SNF last year. Historically, the Packers seem to always beat Dallas in the Rodgers/Love eras, and GB is playing better after a poor start. Dallas had an embarrassing home loss to Tampa, and that game is really the main reason why the shocking 10-game winning streak for underdogs in prime time is intact.

It would be fitting for Jerry Jones’ squad to end a streak they helped extend to record length by losing again here as the underdog. I think that’s what will happen too even though I expect a GWD opportunity in this one.

WAS-SF: Maybe we go on a counter run with favorites dominating in prime time starting this weekend. The 49ers won’t go undefeated or anything like that, but I don’t trust a Dan Quinn-coached team to be the one that knocks them off. His defense won’t stop this offense, and Daniels is not playing the best right now. I begrudgingly take the home favorite to cover to end the week.

2026 NFL Stat Oddity: Week 5

NFL Stat Oddity 2026
~ Scott ~ 4 Comments

Week 5 was just one of those NFL weeks where the island games had insane endings to cover up for a pretty bland Sunday afternoon. After consecutive weeks with 12 games with a comeback opportunity, blowouts were up a little on Sunday, though we did still finish with 10 such games in Week 5.

But I think Week 5 brought out the worst this season in coaching decisions, starting with Todd Bowles not kicking that field goal on Thursday night in Dallas. That game shouldn’t have been that close. London shouldn’t have ended the way it did with the Jaguars getting a walk-off field goal after a long kick return.

The Commanders-Giants game ending in a tie was absolute batshit and incompetence from a variety of people. The anticipated Seahawks-49ers game was deceptively high scoring as terrible ball security led to a ton of points from short fields. Then a dropped pass and questionable ruling on the field on the final play ended that one.

To cap it off on Monday night, Joe Brady and Sean McVay showed us why neither should be coaching at the Super Bowl this season. I’ve already led with this one week this season, but I’m really stunned at the lack of growth for this year’s Super Bowl contenders:

  • The Rams still suck miserably on special teams and it’s killing them at 2-3.
  • The Bills are even worse on defense and more reckless on offense under Brady and Jim Leonhard. A lucky 4-1 start.
  • The Seahawks are showing that 4-game run without a giveaway to end 2025 was a fluke outlier.
  • The Broncos still can’t score in the first three quarters.
  • Do you really trust the Jaguars or Vikings to win in January? Too bad you can’t combine Detroit’s offense with Minnesota’s defense.

That’s why I do like the concept of a Chiefs vs. 49ers rematch in February. Kenneth Walker is a new wrinkle. Mike Evans is a new wrinkle. These teams know how to win in the playoffs, and there’s no one in their conference they can’t beat this year. Alas, injuries can undo everything (maybe already did for the Chiefs; we’ll see) and we have a long way to go still.

But Bills-Rams was a grandiose display of just how little we’ve come from last season.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Bills at Rams: Game of the Week

The Rams and Bills started the week with the best odds to win the Super Bowl, and they ended the week in the same position. However, I think Monday night’s 37-34 overtime final was proof that we shouldn’t trust either one of these teams to be there in February as they continue making the same stupid mistakes.

The first half was pure subversion. Josh Allen threw for 60 yards (40 on one short toss to Ty Johnson) and a pick. Puka Nacua looked like he was going to catch 18 balls for 100 yards in a run-and-shoot offense (he finished with 17 catches for 138 yards). The Rams had drives that were long on plays and short on points.

The second half, particularly the fourth quarter when five touchdowns were scored, was the shootout most expected. But at the end of the day, what did we really learn that’s new about these teams?

  • Allen still makes boneheaded decisions as he should have been picked twice in this one, and he was bailed out by multiple penalties on scoring drives.
  • James Cook still fumbles too often and in big spots like he did in overtime here.
  • The Rams still have a terrible kicker (Mevis) and generally terrible special teams, which cost them another game with two missed field goals and a long kickoff return to Buffalo to start the game.
  • Joe Brady’s passing game takes the air out of the ball as Allen somehow had 196 YAC on 210 passing yards and only 12 completions.
  • The Rams were too dumb to put a quarterback spy on him, so he ran for 121 yards, including several scrambles on the same kind of play that kept burning the Rams.
  • Even though D.J. Moore and Josh Palmer were out, the Buffalo tight ends and wide receivers combined for 100 receiving yards, and 57 of those were on one YAC play by Shakir in OT.
  • The Buffalo defense is lousy and worse than it was under Sean McDermott. Stafford threw 55 times and was sacked once while completing 40 passes.
  • The Bills were just fortunate that Sean McVay once again wimped out of a gutsy call to go for 2 and the win after Kyren Williams’ touchdown with 0:05 left.

In some games, you go to overtime at home. But in a game where five straight touchdowns were just scored, you go for 2 and the win. Why not? You’re almost banking on an outcome where you have to defend the Bills in overtime, probably give up another TD since neither of you can get a stop, then have to get your own TD, then probably go for 2 to win then. Why not just wipe out that injury risk on all those snaps and go for the 2 now while you have the terrible Buffalo defense reeling, and Stafford was dealing?

It made no sense in the moment, and I don’t think McVay in Year 10 is ever going to change. This is just who he is. Then in overtime, you get the Cook fumble, you get to the Buffalo 35, then you take the ball out of Stafford’s hands after he played such a clean game? Just nonsense. They ran Kyren on 3rd-and-5 for no gain on the outer edge of field goal range for their overweight kicker (I’m allowed to say it).

Even if the 48-yard field goal wasn’t getting blocked, it looked like he was going to miss it anyway with a bad kick. That’s just who he is.

Then after watching that sequence and the way the Giants-Commanders game ended on Sunday, Joe Brady and the Bills still screwed up their final drive. First, I think they caught a break with the refs letting the clock go down to the 2-minute warning as that quick no-gain run should not have taken 5 seconds when they ran it with 2:45 left. Saved them a delay of game penalty.

But at 2:00 and second down, you run two plays even if they’re knees, and then you kick the field goal in the final 40 seconds so that if it’s missed, you leave the Rams little time to go get the winner. They just kicked it immediately on second down to conclude one of the worst weeks of coaching decisions in the NFL that I can remember.

Fortunately, Tyler Bass was good from 45 yards this time, and in Year 9 in his eighth try, Josh Allen finally wins an overtime game in the NFL. But this type of game does not move the needle positively for me on these teams. If anything, it makes me want to trust them less, because Buffalo isn’t gong to win 37-34 games every week in the playoffs. No one does that.

Then the Rams are 2-3 and in danger of not even making the playoffs if they don’t get Garrett back soon and start playing up to their potential on defense. Even if they do, the special teams can still ruin it any given week as that continues to be a failure for McVay.

It was a spectacle Monday night. But a Super Bowl preview it was not.

49ers at Seahawks: Sunday’s Best

It’s actually comical to see the final score of 32-29 in a game with one touchdown drive longer than 24 yards. These teams were feasting on seven turnovers to set up short fields for scores, including one return touchdown by the 49ers. When George Holani fumbled in the open field just by dropping the ball, I knew I was watching something bizarre and fvcked up.

It wasn’t isolated to one or two players either. It was numerous players on both teams that kept losing control of the ball, which you wouldn’t expect to see on a nice weather day without rain or anything. It’s like these teams were nervous, which would be a weird position since they played in Week 18 for the No. 1 seed last year, two weeks before they met in the playoffs. Those were bigger games than Sunday.

I don’t think either quarterback was very good, though Brock Purdy got it together late and avoided some of the crucial mistakes Darnold had. The go-ahead touchdown drive with Purdy throwing the score to Brandin Cooks was his best drive of the day.

The Seahawks had a chance to tie or take the lead late, but JSN had a horrific drop in the open field after a strong game. Hate to see that in that spot. But on 4th-and-10, Cooper Kupp got 9 yards after diving out of bounds and stretching the ball.

This is another call in Week 5 that technically might be correct in the rulebook, but it just feels spiritually wrong, and it feels like something that has been inconsistently applied. I don’t like the way the end zone gets treated so differently from a first-down market at midfield. This feels like a play where Kupp left his feet while still inbounds and made a diving attempt for the marker and got there. I feel like that should be a first down even if I understand why it wasn’t per rules.

But that doesn’t mean it feels right or is a good judgment call. Hate to see a game end that way. The 49ers improve to 5-0, and the Seahawks look a bit vulnerable at the moment. The defense isn’t quite as impressive as last year, and Darnold is struggling.

But I still look forward to the rematch in Week 12 at the end of November. Just like to see a cleaner game.

Eagles vs. Jaguars: Inconceivable

I slept on this first half of what turned out to be a crazy London game. The shorthanded Eagles were hanging in there, though I think Liam Coen helped that with some of those fourth-down decisions.

I did not like the decision to go for 4th-and-5 at the Philadelphia 5 with 6:35 left and the Jaguars down 14-10. Lawrence threw wildly and turned it over on downs. Some will point to the long snapper issue making a field goal problematic, though I guess the end of the game proved that to be overblown.

But it kind of felt like that would sink the Jaguars no matter what they did as they got a touchdown on 4th-and-5 to Parker Washington on the following drive. And sure enough, the bad snap/hold ruined the XP, so the Jaguars were left vulnerable at 16-14.

The teams exchanged three-and-outs as the clock management wasn’t great on either side, and Jalen Hurts eventually got it back and got it done, setting up a 48-yard field goal with 0:08 left to take a 17-16 lead.

Game over? Not in today’s NFL. You really have to set up the field goal as the final play anymore as we’re seeing 7-8 seconds is enough for a team to win, even if they didn’t have a timeout like Jacksonville. The Eagles screwed up by not kicking deep for a touchback, and the Jaguars returned it 53 yards to set up maybe the deadliest long-range kicker in the NFL in Cam Little, who drilled the game winner from 57 yards out. Trevor Lawrence gets credit for a 4QC for the earlier touchdown but no GWD in this rare situation.

But you have to go for the touchback there and make them try to run some crazy play from the 35. Even a kickoff out of bounds in case you worry you won’t make it to the end zone for a touchback and putting them at the 40 would be better than what happened. I still say the Eagles had a shot to delay the tackle just a hair or two by not bringing the returner down immediately, and the clock would have just expired. Game over.

So many things went wrong in such a quick period of time, and just like that, the Eagles blew an improbable lead for the second week in a row. They went from looking like they’d save their season to possibly putting into motion the end for Sirianni and maybe even Hurts in Philly at this rate.

Ravens at Falcons: Falconing Returns

You know all about Chargering, the Chargers’ art of choking away games. The NFC has its own version in Atlanta called Falconing, and Super Bowl LI is their masterpiece that not even the Chargers can match so far.

Well, Sunday night was some on-brand Falconing after the Falcons blew their shot to win all three of their prime-time games no one but the NFL thought they deserved. Baltimore, even with backup quarterback Snoop Huntley, became the first team since the 2022 Cardinals (vs. Raiders) won a game after trailing by 8 points in the final minute. Same score too as both were down 23-15 before forcing overtime and winning on a touchdown.

Huntley has played well the last two years, and I think you could argue Baltimore makes the playoffs last year if they just started Huntley instead of Cooper Rush when Lamar was injured. But this was impressive on the road given Mark Andrews went all domestic terrorist again with a dropped touchdown, a fumble for a touchdown, and he couldn’t squeeze a 2PC.

Speaking of 2PC, the Ravens finally found a way to go to someone other than Andrews with the game on the line. After the late touchdown, the Ravens put Derrick Henry in the Wildcat and did a direct snap, which he scored on to save the day. Good to see something different here.

Sadly, Michael Penix Jr. did not finish this game with an injury, but since he did play on that last drive in regulation, he technically falls to 0-7 at game-winning drive opportunities with Atlanta.

After the Ravens consumed 7 minutes in overtime, it left the Falcons with little time to go get a touchdown. That’s an interesting part of the strategy to consider for overtime in the regular season when it’s 10:00 instead of 15:00 with a chance for a second OT quarter.

I’m normally pro-kickoff and go on defense, get the ball second so you know exactly what you need with the chance to play four-down football to get it. But I can admit it’s not a one-size-fits-all strategy, and some games I’ll be open to different strategies. This might be one of them as the Falcons looked tired after defending the late touchdown drive in regulation. By taking the ball first in OT, the Ravens could wear them down even more with Henry and company, which they did on their touchdown march.

Also, since you put the Falcons in a bit of a time bind with the long drive, it hurts their best part of the game in running the ball with Bijan Robinson. Granted, he was mostly held in check aside from a 38-yard burst, but the Falcons had to move quickly, and go figure it only took two passes from backup Tua Tagovailoa before we had a game-ending interception. Kyle Hamilton didn’t drop that one.

But that’s a good win to get to 4-1 for the Ravens without Lamar, and just another missed opportunity for Penix and the Falcons.

Colts at Steelers: Offense Returns to Pittsburgh

I felt really confident in the Steelers based on the way they turned the Colts over six times last year, the extra days of rest for old Aaron Rodgers since the Cleveland loss, and the way the Colts can’t rush the passer and gave up the most yards before contact on rushes.

While the game had no turnovers, the Steelers forced the Colts to kick five field goals and they ended their last two drives with fourth-down stops. On offense, the Steelers got two huge plays (80-yard catch, 50-yard run) out of Jaylen Warren for touchdowns, and Rodgers was getting the ball out quickly with few issues. That’s how you get a comfortable 34-22 win.

Rodgers became the oldest quarterback in NFL history to have three straight games with 200+ passing yards and 3+ passing touchdowns. The Steelers have three straight games with 24 points and 350+ yards of offense for the first time since the 2020 COVID season.

Now we’ll see if this offense can travel as the Steelers are going to the Bucs and Saints the next two weeks. They’re 0-2 on the road and 3-0 at home so far.

Broncos at Chargers: Regression Still Not Here for Both

What ever happened to close-game regression for the Chargers and Broncos?

  • Justin Herbert has failed on seven straight GWD attempts going back to Houston last year as the Chargers are the only team that’s 0-5 at 4QC/GWD in 2026.
  • Bo Nix is 11-1 in GWD opportunities since October 2025, including 3-1 this year.

When Tim Tebow shit the bed for three quarters and pulled out his voodoo in the fourth, people thought it was a fad. When John Elway did it for years in Denver, the fans loved it. When Bo Nix does it, I’m not sure what people think it is. I just know they generally don’t like it and don’t trust it.

But Sunday was another one of those games where Denver scored 13 points in the fourth quarter after trailing 17-10. This time, the Chargers kept turning the ball over, setting up Denver on short fields. I’m not convinced Denver going for the field goal on 4th-and-1 at the 1 in a tied game with 5:10 left was the right call, but maybe it doesn’t matter if Justin Herbert is going to throw this on 4th down right to the defense (look at the receivers to the left too):

There’s no injury to a receiver or offensive lineman that can explain that throw. Herbert is broken, he’s dead last in QBR (26.5), and I’m not sure we’ve ever seen anything like this.

The same can be said about Nix, who is now 12-5 (.706) at 4QC and 14-6 (.700) at GWDs. Regression has to hit at some point, doesn’t it?

Bears at Packers: Missing Caleb

Maybe it’s for the best that Mike Ditka’s (RIP) last Bears-Packers game was the playoff one from January as this 31-7 beatdown was not kind to Chicago. Just outclassed from the start on both sides of the ball, Jordan Love and Christian Watson had yet another good game against this defense, and Tyson Bagnet looked like an inexperienced backup quarterback who let the Jets intercept him four times (only one counted though).

Bagent was picked twice here, and Johnson didn’t go with Case Keenum until it was 31-7 in the fourth quarter, and the Bears still ended up turning it over or on downs on their last five drives.

Ben Johnson is just 2-7 against the NFC North, so his rivals aren’t impressed. I’m not ready to panic yet on this team as they clearly need to get Caleb Williams back at quarterback. But I do think there’s a real concern with this offense that having “too many weapons” means the young players (Odunze, Loveland, Burden) are not developing properly because they don’t have defined roles. Who really is the WR1 in this offense? Khalif Raymond has had nice games but he had 3 catches for 6 yards on Sunday.

Figure out the roles better. Meanwhile, I think the Packers have done exactly that with fewer weapons this year when you see Watson with 143 yards, Matthew Golden with 123 yards, and Tucker Kraft had 64 yards. Everyone else had 37 yards combined. Just lean on your best deep threat, your first-round speedster, and your very good tight end. I like that.

The Bears need to sort their offense out better.

Vikings at Saints: Justin Jefferson Deserves Better

The Vikings improved to 5-0 after a ho-hum 23-13 win in New Orleans. The offense was a bit better this week, and Justin Jefferson added a great highlight play with this touchdown in triple coverage that was all him.

Too bad he doesn’t get to play with an elite quarterback. But the Vikings relentlessly blitzed Tyler Shough and it worked again. While he only took one sack, he was 16-of-25 for 96 yards with two picks. Half of the Saints’ points were on a fumble return by the defense.

The Vikings are getting it done defensively under Brian Flores.

Browns at Jets: Blame It on the Rain?

A predictably close game that was lower scoring (17-12) possibly due to the rain. It also doesn’t help when your receiver (Isiah Bond) is catching a 30-yard pass and running out of bounds when he had a chance to go for a touchdown.

Keep in mind that drive would end with Cleveland punting on 4th-and-38 after Predator took a couple of sacks. But Watson also led a go-ahead drive in the fourth quarter that would have been a fourth-straight game-winning drive. Alas, the Browns missed the extra point, Geno Smith lost a fumble, and the Browns went three-and-out in the four-minute offense.

However, the punt ended up being a killer as the wet ball was too much for the punter to handle, and that led to a turnover on downs. The Jets only had to drive 23 yards for the game-winning touchdown, and Geno didn’t even complete a pass on the drive. Watson couldn’t answer on either drive in the final 3:01, and he was strip-sacked on 4th-and-11 to end the game.

Cleveland’s 3-game winning streak ends.

Giants at Commanders: How?

By now, you no doubt saw what happened in overtime after the Commanders blew a 14-point lead to Jameis Winston and the Giants. The Commanders were handed a golden opportunity for a win after the Giants already missed a 46-yard field goal and Cam Skattebo fumbled at the 24 in overtime.

The Commanders just had to spike the ball and kick a field goal in the closing seconds to get a big 30-27 win. But Jayden Daniels took the snap regularly, looked like he would just chuck it out of bounds, but then he took a dive and the clock ran out with the team out of timeouts. There wasn’t enough time for the spike.

Someone should probably get fired over this, and while I don’t think Dan Quinn did a good job on Sunday here, I have to believe this is on Daniels more than anyone. It’s not the first time he got caught trying to do too much at the end of a half or quarter and didn’t get a field goal attempt out of the deal. Whether he simply forgot the timeout situation or pulled a 2008 Donovan McNabb and didn’t know that a game could end in a tie, he fvcked up big time here.

And it’s a shame because he was close to doing the 200 yards passing/100 yards rushing thing in this game as he ran the ball well in his return from elbow injury. But a total brain fart in overtime denied the shot at a big win for Washington.

Maybe it’s fitting that the NFC East doesn’t get a single win in Week 5 despite two teams playing each other. Poverty division.

Raiders at Patriots: Moving in Opposite Directions?

The Raiders have lost two in a row after a 3-0 start while the Patriots have won two in a row after a 1-2 start. Drake Maye had arguably his best performance ever in the NFL in this game with five total touchdowns and 374 passing yards.

Just a dominant win, though I do see the criticism that the Patriots repeatedly got DPI flags on most touchdown drives in the game. But both teams were over 100 yards in penalties and the Patriots still crushed them.

It wouldn’t surprise me one bit if these teams move in opposite directions the rest of the season. Trajectory is back to looking up for Maye, who gets A.J. Brown back soon.

Lions at Cardinals: Detroit Gets First Road Win

The Lions might have the best offense in the NFL this year as long as the key players stay healthy. The defense isn’t good, but at least it got 5 sacks  on Brissett and held the Cardinals to 14 points at home until Trey McBride made an absurd touchdown catch in garbage time.

I’m still not that moved as the Brissett-era Cardinals are the master of losing high-scoring games like this.

Bengals at Dolphins: Burrow in His Element

Ah yes, there’s Joe Burrow in his element. Throwing four touchdowns (but not 200 yards) against a winless Miami team that has yet to hold a single lead this season. However, the Dolphins still found a way to get a push on the 7-point spread despite a terrible start by Malik Willis, which still makes me think the Bengals are fake contenders this year.

That defense hasn’t been championship caliber, and the offense is still a bit one-dimensional.

Texans at Titans: If a Bear Shits in the Woods…

You have to laugh at the Titans starting this game with a field goal before getting outscored 26-0 the rest of the day. No one scored a touchdown until C.J. Stroud ran one in himself in the third quarter. See, literally any quarterback can do it from 2 yards out.

But the Texans were always the better team here, and the result isn’t a surprise. The Titans are really that bad with no direction going forward. That new coaching staff has done zilch but make things even worse and more pointless in Tennessee.

Next Week

I just finished my Week 6 preview, and I can tell you the games aren’t that great this week. Seahawks-Broncos on TNF is actually one of the best games we get. The Jags are taking on Houston in London as a bit of a last-chance effort for Houston.

Ravens-Browns is a 1 PM highlight, I guess. Chargers at Kansas City should have been the premiere game but the Chargers are 0-5. Still, I’d be shocked if they don’t cover the spread (9). Bills-Raiders could be fun if only the Raiders play offense like they did in September. Dallas vs. Green Bay on SNF usually ends poorly for the Cowboys, though I guess a 40-40 tie last year was better than a loss.

Washington-49ers on MNF is the kind of game I could have used last night to get some work done early. But I’ll get everything done, go to bed, and recharge for the rest of the week. Look out on Twitter for my full Joe Burrow video spoofing A Few Good Men. I posted a trailer on Monday.

NFL 2026 Week 5 Predictions: NFC West Takes Center Stage Edition

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

The NFC West was always the story of this 2026 season with three Super Bowl contenders in one division, and they take center stage in a soft Week 5 schedule that heats up late on Sunday afternoon and the best Monday night game of the year so far.

  • The 49ers are 4-0 and have played the best football of any team.
  • The Seahawks are 3-1 and have been out of the spotlight after Sam Darnold was injured on the opening drive of the season, and they lost to Washington in his return game. But they can get back on top with a win here.
  • The Rams are 2-2 after a much needed comeback against the Eagles, and maybe they can get on a roll by beating Buffalo in a clash of the teams with the best Super Bowl odds (what ever value that holds in October).

Just a huge week for these teams, and they’ll play the Chiefs later this season, and the Rams and Seahawks won’t meet until Christmas. But for an early Game of the Year in the NFL, it’s hard to beat 49ers at Seahawks tomorrow at 4:25. Brock Purdy has a chance to make ground in the MVP argument after his hot start, but he’s going up against an elite pass defense that destroyed his offense in the two meetings late last season.

The 49ers will have George Kittle this time after he was injured in the playoffs, and he looks great so far this year. They also have Mike Evans as a new weapon this year, and Deebo Samuel is back and looks fine. Purdy is playing as well as he ever has, and he did beat the Seahawks in Seattle to start last year as Mike Macdonald actually has a far better road record than at home.

But I think the Seahawks can flex that defense again, and I’m not sure the 49ers can stop JSN. The question is whether Darnold can step up under pressure as he hasn’t done a good job at all so far this year. It should be a good one.

On Monday night, can we just get a good game? They’ve all been blowouts so far. These teams met in 2024 and it was a 44-42 final even though the Bills consistently trailed by multiple scores. The Rams have to play a clean offensive game here as Matthew Stafford’s had too many turnovers already, and he’s getting a Buffalo defense that has already given up 29-31 points in three games. They look worse without Sean McDermott on that side of the ball, and the offense has been making plenty of mistakes the last two games after getting away with some reckless plays in the first two weeks.

Stat Oddity will be delayed until Tuesday as I have some work to do tomorrow night, and I want to make sure I cover MNF in it.

NFL Week 5 Predictions

Welp, Dallas had one of its worst losses on TNF against the winless Bucs, who failed to cover the spread in 13 straight games before that upset. Onto the next.

PHI-JAX: It feels like the sky is falling on the Eagles this week with injuries and Lane Johnson retiring. The Jags are used to this London thing. I’d be surprised if they didn’t win by more than a touchdown here.

CIN-MIA: Joe Burrow in his element, beating up a crap pass defense for a Miami team that’s yet to have a lead at any point this season. The wide receivers sound like they’ll both be active too for Burrow. I don’t expect to see him trailing late in this one.

MIN-NO: Someone has to end this Minnesota undefeated charade. I think the Saints have the right stuff to do it with Shough having that ability to shake off a bad half and get things going late. I think the Saints get a GWD.

LV-NE: Lots of injuries for the New England corners but the Raiders lack receivers. Tough call. I’m going to split the difference and take the Raiders ATS, NE ML as I think Cousins can keep this close with the way the Raiders have been scoring. But NE’s win last week should build confidence for Maye and company.

CLE-NYJ: Definitely feels like a game that will shine in the Witching Hour with a close finish between Watson and Geno. But I’m going to go with the Jets to get an interception in back-to-back weeks after getting that drought out of the way, and they’ll find a way to win this one.

IND-PIT: I like the Steelers at home. 10 days of rest for Rodgers, the Colts rank 32nd in pass pressure rate and 32nd in rush yards before contact per attempt, so I think Rodgers and Jaylen Warren play well. T.J. Watt and the defense show up at home against the offense they turned over 6x last season.

HOU-TEN: You know you’re terrible when you’re a 7-point home dog to an 0-4 team. But the Texans have blown 3 4Q leads, and I think they win big here as they’re just the better team on both sides of the ball.

NYG-WAS: Tough call but I’m going to give Washington a bone at home as Jayden Daniels needs to show he can stay healthy and get a big division win in an NFC East that is wide open.

CHI-GB: I remember picking the Bears to beat Washington right after Dick Butkus died, and I got a similar feeling here with Mike Ditka passing this week. I’m not sure if Ben Johnson has any history with him or if the young players even care, but I think Chicago shows out even with Bagent at QB again, I’m playing Colston Loveland for a TD, and I got the Bears winning this one as the Packers have played terrible football.

DEN-LAC: The Chargers are totally banged up again (OL, WR, Derwin James, etc.). Crazy how this happens so often. Look for Sean Payton to rub it in and run it up as Denver gets an easy win.

SF-SEA: Tough call as I do like the offensive juggernaut in the regular season. But I think the Seahawks find a way and win by 4+.

DET-ARI: Potential shootout but the Lions better win a road game here. Already lost at Buffalo and Carolina.

ATL-BAL: Underdogs have been kicking ass in prime time all season, but so have the Falcons the last two weeks. Conventional wisdom says Ravens fold without Lamar, but I think Tyler Huntley makes it competitive and the Falcons win by 1-3 points at the end.

BUF-LAR: I wouldn’t expect 44-42 but it could be. Rams still aren’t going to have Myles Garrett and Aaron Donald together, but I think Sean McVay can scheme up a bunch of big plays against this Buffalo defense, and look out for D.J. Moore’s injury report as his absence could be a notable loss for the Bills if he can’t go. But I’ll take the Rams at home.