The NFL did a really good job of loading up the Thanksgiving schedule this year. The games were far from spectacular, but it wasn’t a bad day of football. I already covered Detroit’s historic seventh fourth-quarter comeback win of the season on Friday, and if this team is an all-time fluke or not (short answer: not).
As for the rest of Week 12’s leftovers, I’m not seeing a whole lot of quality, so it’s just going to be a few short thoughts on some select games this week.
Arizona at Atlanta – like to see if Matt Ryan can perform well against a good defense at home to help restore some order in this most unusual MVP race. Seriously, a rookie QB and a suspended QB are very much in the mix for MVP, while Ryan needs to make sure the Falcons still win double-digit games to get proper credit as the most consistently great QB this season. David Johnson could have a huge game too for Arizona, so this might be high scoring again.
Giants at Cleveland – can the Browns pull off some 2008 magic when they took out the defending champion Giants with a stunning 35-14 win? Giants started 11-1 that year with the only loss to the lowly Browns. They’re running out of opportunities for a win this season, and a home game with a New York team that has played almost everyone tight might be one of the best shots yet. Of course, it will take an Eli Manning pick parade to happen.
Titans at Chicago – Tennessee is a sorry sack of shit if it can’t beat a Bears team missing Jay Cutler, Alshon Jeffery and both guards. The no-name defense is even more no-namier with Jerrell Freeman’s suspension. I only bring this one up because the Titans have lost to some real garbage teams over the years, including the 0-13 Colts of 2011.
Seattle at Tampa Bay – no Earl Thomas is a break for Jameis Winston, but the late kickoff time should help Seattle on a long trip here. Would be one of the more interesting upsets of the season, but I still like Seattle to win.
Kansas City at Denver – it’s just not the same without Peyton Manning in Denver. It’s a big game in the standings, obviously, but are you really thrilled to watch Alex Smith and Trevor Siemian try to engineer drives against two of the most talented defenses? I like Denver at home off a bye just because I expect the playmakers around Siemian to do more for him while the defense gets after Smith. Of course, every Denver game for the rest of the year is prefaced with “The single biggest worry is Siemian turning the ball over to put the defense on short fields.” If he doesn’t do that, Denver should win.
Green Bay at Philadelphia – honestly tired of watching the Packers in prime time this season. It’s just not a fun offense anymore, because the efficiency is lost with Aaron Rodgers. I don’t think the Eagles defense is as good as the numbers suggest, but they certainly have done their job against teams like Atlanta and Pittsburgh at home this season. Green Bay should struggle again, but I don’t think the defense will be as pathetic as it’s been recently, just given the limited nature of the Eagles offense and it’s subpar rookie quarterback. Could be a night for Wendell Smallwood to make a name for himself thanks to injuries.
2016 Week 12 Predictions
The hope for a perfect 16-0 week is alive after getting the Thanksgiving games right.
Thanksgiving picks: Lions, Cowboys, Steelers. I don't feel overly confident in any of them. Should be a good day.
How great was Week 10 in the NFL? I’m not just playing it up either because of the shit week that preceded it. The best games (DAL-PIT, SEA-NE) were the best games — only games with seven lead changes this season — and we had a season-high 10 games decided with a fourth-quarter score. I doubt the next seven weeks will be able to top that one.
I feel very certain that the Week 11 slate is going to pale in comparison. In fact, this might be the weakest week yet this season, with not much standing out other than the DVOA Title Match between the Eagles and Seahawks. Of course, I expect Seattle to prevail at home in that one by forcing Carson Wentz into mistakes, but that could be a tight, low-scoring affair for sure.
I think the turnaround of Tennessee’s offense has been very unexpected, and good for the league, but I also think the Colts will play better off their bye week and find a way to win yet another one against the Titans. Andrew Luck has yet to lose to that team.
Baltimore at Dallas is interesting only in the sense that how will Dak and Zeke perform against a pretty solid defense? Otherwise, it just seems like the Ravens won’t be able to score enough on the road to really make that a great game.
Buffalo at Cincinnati almost feels like a no-brainer game I’ll have to cover in Clutch Encounters on Tuesday, as a game between two evenly-matched teams this year. Might be a sneaky good fantasy game as well with the way Buffalo has been defending big plays/No. 1 WRs right now.
Vikings-Cardinals was one of my absolute favorite games to watch and write about in 2015. This year, the teams are just not as good, and I expect some pretty subpar QB play in that one.
The Rams are finally going to start Jared Goff, which should have been the case since Week 1. Not sure how two months of sitting will have made a difference, but Goff will make his debut in the 10th game of his career. I don’t expect much at all from him this week, but at least it’s something fresh to watch, even if it does reek of that Jeff Fisher 7-9 bullshit.
Packers-Redskins: I’m frankly just tired of watching Green Bay this season. Think I’ve seen them play live seven times this year, and it’s just not the same well-oiled machine we used to see on offense, and the defense has been poor with too many corners and Clay Matthews out. I think the Redskins have been getting quietly better on defense and balancing the offense with the run game, and should be able to get this one at home. Of course, for as long as I’ve been watching the NFL (post-Joe Gibbs 1.0), trusting Washington to come through in a fairly big moment (home SNF game) is asking for trouble.
And I’m definitely not all that interested to see Brock Osweiler try to play QB again on Monday night. The Texans sure have gotten a tough draw on the road schedule (NE, MIN, DEN), but at least this one is more like a neutral field in Mexico City.
I left out the Steelers-Browns until now, because you figured I would talk about that one in more detail. Yes, I absolutely think the 0-10 Browns can win this game. It would be a defining moment for the “Mike Tomlin’s team plays down to the competition” story. After all, this team struggled like hell with a 2011 Colts team that started the season 0-13. They went down 10-0 and had to win in OT against a 2012 Chiefs team that was 1-7 at the time. Tomlin has another loss to a 2-14 team in the 2014 Buccaneers at home. This would not be that shocking at all, especially if the weather gets nasty. The Steelers were not able to run the ball at all in two games against Cleveland last year. Hue Jackson knows this team very well from his experience in the division. Cody Kessler has not been great, but at least he has protected the ball, and should respond to his weird benching in the previous game. Isaiah Crowell has gone MIA in recent weeks after a good start, but that was more about game script and the opponents faced. Pittsburgh is a bad defense, and it just lost arguably its best player (Cam Heyward) for the season, which should make the run D even worse. While everyone has been able to beat the Browns, they were at least competitive in five games with 5 failed 4QC attempts. Pittsburgh isn’t anywhere near good enough to walk into this game lightly and expect a win. Ben Roethlisberger will have to play very well, and he usually does in Cleveland, but like I said, you have the potential for a one-dimensional offense here. Matchup wise, he should have a field day with Antonio Brown (Steelers are thin at WR otherwise), but if the passing game is hampered at all, then Cleveland will have a good shot in this one at home.
Pittsburgh’s season really hangs in the balance this week. A loss at Cleveland would be devastating, but there’s also a game in Indy on Thursday night. For a team that was largely considered the non-NE favorite to reach the Super Bowl, this has to be the week to get on track, or it’s over.
2016 Week 11 Predictions
I went with the Panthers on TNF, and they barely hung on in 2015 style for the win. Still a very disappointing season from that team.
Winners in bold:
Titans at Colts
Bears at Giants
Buccaneers at Chiefs
Ravens at Cowboys
Jaguars at Lions
Bills at Bengals
Cardinals at Vikings
Steelers at Browns
Dolphins at Rams
Patriots at 49ers
Eagles at Seahawks
Packers at Redskins
Texans at Raiders
Bloody hell, I was even going to pick the Rams, but figured this was already too many home teams for the week. Upsets to the rescue I guess.
“It’s the heart of nuclear winter and I’m scared as hell.” – Glassjaw
Before we get into the preview, I’d like to get personal in what has been a trying week. Some events are too important to just remain silent. So skip down if you must, or if you need a sports-only rant, I ripped Tom Brady’s top games pretty good here.
This week, I’ve had the livelihood of my career threatened due to some behind-the-scenes issues with the rights of NFL data that you guys don’t need to know the details of (we’re working through it). I’ve felt a lack of safety in my own home this week after the threat of a gas leak that has thankfully been fixed on my street. On Friday, my community faced the threat of a crazy man who stabbed six people in a nearby mental facility (SWAT team took him down). That actually used to be a hospital years ago, and I remember going there one time as a kid after a late-night accident that required stitches and has left a little scar on my chin.
Yet I don’t think anything that happened this week is a bigger threat to scar this nation than the absurd election of Donald Trump as president. What more can be said about this scumbag that hasn’t already been said? Well, apparently we needed more, since we just elected him despite his long history of hatred, racism, misogyny, allegations of sexual assault (including child rape), that he has a total lack of experience, thinks climate change is a Chinese hoax, wants to build a wall (that Mexico won’t pay for), and the fact that he only cares about himself. “Make America Great Again” is nothing more than code for “I want wealthy white men to rule this country, and believe me, they will all know that I am the greatest supreme ruler, daddy-o.”
Charlie Chaplin made one of his finest films, The Great Dictator, back in 1940 as a satire on Adolf Hitler and the Nazis. His speech at the end of that film is one of the finest ever written, and it still resonates as much today as it did during World War II. Please take a few minutes of your time to watch this if you have never had the pleasure before.
People uniting to help each other — what a novel concept. That’s why I never cared about the Republican vs. Democrat aspect of this election. It never should have been about that as long as Trump was involved.
This was supposed to be an election for the lesser of two evils, but evil won.
What does it say when the KKK is so openly happy about Trump’s win? It’s one thing for a hillbilly in a white coat to be brazen in their racism, but Trump has empowered hatred throughout this country. Now as a straight white male, I’m not a target of the Trump movement, but what about the black community that I live in? What about my best friend who is half-black, half-Spanish, or my Jewish boss, or my Mexican relatives? How much more bullshit will they have to put up with now? You’ve already seen the stories from state after state this week of what Trump supporters are doing to innocent people. I’ve never seen the phrase “Go Back to Africa!” as much as I have this week. These feelings of hatred are deeply rooted, but it’s downright scary that the election of Trump has given so many a reason to act out, and it will likely only get worse. I thought we were going to hit a racial boiling point after the police shootings in Dallas this summer, but I really do fear what’s to come. As I said, as a white male, I’m not going to be personally affected too much by a Trump presidency, though the fear of nuclear war certainly endangers us all. But from a more realistic standpoint of what Trump will be allowed to do, I have real concerns with health care. If it wasn’t for Obamacare, I might not be here right now. After I lost my health insurance after college, I was denied coverage for a pre-exiting condition: hemorrhoids. Yes, a minor case of hemorrhoids over nine years ago denied me health care coverage. My doctor apologized before laughing about that, because he had never heard that one before. Now that I have had some serious health problems (a pulmonary embolism and sleep apnea this year), I worry about losing coverage again. While Obamacare has its issues — and those price hikes likely led to some Trump votes — it at least has helped people get covered.
Was this election the litmus test for drawing a line between stupidity and common sense? I already kind of figured that I generally don’t like many (most?) human beings, but I just want to thank the 60,265,858 Trump voters for helping me to put a number on it. I would love to know what percentage of that number actually voted for Trump because they support him as a person vs. how many were just voting for the Republican party. The two-party system is a joke in this day and age. It’s like a fan who roots for his team no matter what player is wearing the jersey. Sometimes, you need to read the name on the back too, and think about what kind of person you are supporting. If Trump ran as an independent without the backing of a major party, would he have ever gotten this far? Highly doubtful.
Did I vote this week? No, I’ve voted one time in my life, and that was 2004 (Kerry over Bush) when I turned 18. Hillary won my county, but perhaps she would have won Pennsylvania if people like me weren’t so apathetic towards this particular election. And I’m sorry, but if you voted for Gary Johnson, or anyone not named Clinton or Trump, then you wasted your vote. Voting for someone who you know has ZERO chance of winning is a fvcking waste of time.
Don’t get me wrong, I understand that Hillary was a terrible choice for the Democrats. I just thought it was painfully obvious that she’d make a better president than Trump, as would the dildo thrown on the field in Buffalo, but the votes still went the other way. I listened to a relative slam Trump over and over on Friday afternoon, and yet she still voted for him. Figure that shit out. She voted for Obama in 2012 too, and usually votes Democrat. We underestimated the amount of people who took a “they both suck, but I don’t want another Obama in there for four years” vote. And while change can certainly be a good thing, just remember that you are voting for a Giant Douche.
I look for a good week of NFL action (read: not Browns-Ravens) to take my mind off of the problems ahead, but as long as Trump is going to be president, there will be constant reminders of just how divided we are as a nation. And you can’t even really root for Trump to fail miserably, because a failed POTUS is bad for all of us. It might be funny to joke that he’s a puppet for Putin, but that is actually a terrifying thought. So thanks to Trump, we can’t even get schadenfreude out of this. I don’t think Trump will make it to 2020, one way or another, but I just hope the rest of us do.
Sometimes I like to end on a quote, so here’s that ending to the Chaplin speech from The Great Dictator.
“You, the people, have the power to make this life free and beautiful, to make this life a wonderful adventure. Then in the name of democracy, let us use that power.
Let us all unite.
Let us fight for a new world, a decent world that will give men a chance to work, that will give youth a future and old age a security. By the promise of these things, brutes have risen to power. But they lie! They do not fulfill their promise. They never will!
Dictators free themselves but they enslave the people!
Now let us fight to fulfill that promise! Let us fight to free the world! To do away with national barriers! To do away with greed, with hate and intolerance!
Let us fight for a world of reason, a world where science and progress will lead to all men’s happiness.
Soldiers, in the name of democracy, let us all unite!”
We can still learn more from The Tramp than we ever will with Trump.
NFL Week 10
We are now just past the halfway point of the 2016 NFL season. Week 10 has some really interesting games, but I already wrote a full preview of Seahawks-Patriots at FO, so be sure to check that out.
Broncos at Saints
At what point does a unit sustain too many injuries to be considered a different unit from the team’s norm? I’m not saying the absence of Aqib Talib and Derek Wolfe makes it impossible for the Broncos to play well in New Orleans, but it certainly makes things a little easier on Drew Brees and the offense. This is not the usual Denver defense at its best. If the Saints were without Drew Brees, we wouldn’t consider that the usual Saints offense, while we probably would if Brees was playing without his LT and a starting wide receiver. That’s just the importance of the quarterback position. For a defense, no one player has that type of impact, as even the Houston defense is still functioning about as expected without J.J. Watt. Again, this is more of a philosophical point than something specific to this particular game, but I am interested to see how the Broncos fare on the road against a team capable of scoring. Trevor Siemian will have to be much sharper, and while the Saints defense has the reputation it does, it hasn’t been scorched earth like last year. I feel iffy about picking New Orleans here, especially when I can see a good rushing performance coming from Denver, but I think I like Brees at home here against that depleted Denver D. He has rarely been pressured this season, and that’s how Denver thrives with Von Miller & Co.
Falcons at Eagles
Yes, we have the Eagles still first in DVOA, even though they’re the worst team to ever be No. 1 at this point of the season. Realistically, the Eagles are about a 5-3 team trapped in a 4-4 team’s record, with some really dominant wins and a few close losses. If it’s a close game, give me Matt Ryan any day over Carson Wentz, who has yet to prove he can win a game late or win a high-scoring affair (sound familiar?). However, I think the Eagles rebound in this one at home and play very well on defense to get the win. Ryan has historically seen a big dip in his production on the road, and I think the Eagles can contain the run and Julio Jones enough to keep the score down. Also, every team but Denver has scored at least 26 points on Atlanta’s defense, which could be susceptible to all the short passes in a YAC-based passing game like the Eagles have. Maybe I’m banking on DVOA too much here, but I just think the Eagles have a good game in them this week, and that the Atlanta D is still a major hurdle for the Falcons to do damage in the playoffs.
Cowboys at Steelers
Steelers are the only team in NFL I expect to beat 7-1 Dallas and then lose to the 0-10 Browns.
I don’t know what kind of odds I could get on that, but I’d probably drop $50 on it happening without any concern. I just think this is a bounce-back week for the Steelers at home. The Dallas defense has been kind of smoke and mirrors, not allowing more than 23 points in any game this season, but I expect a 34-27 type of game where Pittsburgh exposes them with its talented offense. Remember, Morris Claiborne and Barry Church are out, so that’s two big injuries in the secondary. Don’t forget about Sammie Coates and his weekly 40-yard reception when he was healthy. The good news from last week’s game was that Ben Roethlisberger looked fine physically by the end of it. The struggles were more about rust/lack of practice time, a bad game plan, and too much familiarity against a good Baltimore defense. The Cowboys are an unfamiliar opponent, and for whatever reason, the Steelers home/road splits are massive in recent years. You saw how they destroyed the Chiefs on SNF a few weeks ago. I don’t think they can do that again just because of how efficient the Dallas offense is, but I see a shootout here with Ben having one of those special games. Think 2009 Packers or 2013 Lions or 2006 Saints. Yes, I ended up picking all NFC home games there. Roethlisberger is 18-4 at home against NFC opponents. The Cowboys are about due for a defensive letdown, and what better offense on the schedule to do that to them than Pittsburgh?
Besides, this will just set things up perfectly for the Steelers to take this huge win into Cleveland next week and lose to the 0-10 Browns.
2016 Week 10 Predictions
I had the Ravens on TNF, and I fell asleep on the game, but apparently they did win big.
We’re nearly at the true halfway point of the regular season. On Friday, I wrote a piece about the lack of parity in the NFL, especially in the AFC. One team could change some of that perception with a good win this week.
Steelers at Ravens
Rare to see two teams have a bye week before their regular-season matchup, but here we are. The big question is: will he or won’t he play? We’re talking about Ben Roethlisberger of course, who I swear is contractually obligated to miss at least one Baltimore game per season. The Ravens are 6-1 against the Steelers when Ben is out, but he also has a bad history of playing in his first game back from injury too. This torn meniscus was potentially a 4-6 week injury too, so questionable in this case may truly be questionable. Overall, I think the Steelers have the better team this year, and should have enough firepower to outscore a Baltimore offense that has been very lackluster, already firing its offensive coordinator. Joe Flacco is loading up on failed completions (four weeks in a row with 10+), but I can see a motivated Mike Wallace catching a bomb in this one to stick it to his old team. Fortunately, he’s still pretty limited to showing up on one or two drives per game instead of being a true dominant threat like he was in 2010-11. I want to see if Le’Veon Bell can make it look effortless against a stingy run defense, or if he’ll struggle to gain much traction and have to rely on being a threat in the passing game instead. Last year, Roethlisberger played his worst game of the season in a classic “played down to the competition” game for the Steelers in Week 16 with the playoffs hanging in the balance. Seriously, this team was hanging 30+ on everyone, and came out with a piss-poor effort against a Baltimore team that was starting Ryan Mallett at quarterback. The Steelers made him look like Joe Montana (KC version at least). We know these teams usually play a close one, and my half-assed reason for picking Pittsburgh is that I just can’t see them losing three in a row, but it’s certainly a possibility as long as the quarterback isn’t 100 percent, which I doubt he could be so soon.
Colts at Packers
This will most likely be the second of three career meetings between Andrew Luck and Aaron Rodgers. The first was a classic in 2012. The Colts, just getting the news about Chuck Pagano’s cancer, rallied from 18 points down to beat the Packers 30-27. It was really the first special Luck performance in the NFL, and set up the Colts for a season of success. Luck will have to be even better on Sunday, because I think Green Bay’s offense is going to continue looking good against bad defenses, like it has against Detroit, Chicago and Atlanta this year. The Colts may be worse than all three of them, and when they go on the road, forget about it. Rodgers at home is often dynamite, and I think he gets back on track with the big play to Jordy Nelson this week. It can still certainly be a shootout or big Indy comeback if Luck is on point with T.Y. Hilton (ailing a bit this week), because we know the Green Bay secondary is very banged up too. I just don’t think the Colts have enough to slow Green Bay down, while the Packers will contain Frank Gore and make this another one of those one-dimensional games for Luck.
Broncos at Raiders
This is the big one this week. Since Sunday Night Football became the premiere prime-time game in the NFL in 2006, the Raiders have appeared on it just one time: a completely forgettable 13-3 loss in Denver over 10 years ago. You know things are moving in the right direction if Oakland is hosting Denver in a battle for first place in the tough AFC West. This is a huge statement game for Jack Del Rio’s team. So far, the Raiders have got by weak competition, often on the road (5-0), but have faltered at home to the only two contenders they have faced (Atlanta and Chiefs). That’s not a good sign for a schedule that gets much tougher starting this week. Oakland needs to show something here, because it’s first real AFC West test this season (KC) went poorly. The Broncos are a similar team with an even better defense.
On offense, Oakland has been good in the passing game with Derek Carr, Amari Cooper, Michael Crabtree, but I don’t think this is a great matchup for the three, even if Aqib Talib isn’t 100% or playing. Denver has the secondary to match up with those outside receivers. Seth Roberts isn’t a bad #3 slot guy, but most of this passing game runs through those two wideouts. Cooper really struggled last year with Denver, and we know Carr has yet to have a really good game in four tries against this defense that has just terrorized some really good QBs this year.
As for Carr specifically, I don’t think he’s playing any better this year than the likes of Matt Ryan, Andrew Luck, Drew Brees, Matthew Stafford, Philip Rivers or Ben Roethlisberger. The main difference between him and most of those guys is that he’s played an easier schedule, his team’s had better health, and he has one of the best offensive lines in the league. Denver has the talent to get through that line and put Carr under pressure. He has some gunslinger in him, so he’ll force plays from time to time and give the defense turnover opportunities. I think Carr’s first eight games last year were better than his first eight this season, and we know about his decline last year when the schedule got tougher. He needs to avoid doing that again this year so Oakland can definitely make the playoffs instead of piss away a 6-2 start. Fortunately, the AFC seems weak enough for the Raiders to at least be a wild-card team, but I honestly believe Denver and KC are better teams at this point.
The Broncos just need to stick with their brand of great defense and to not screw things up on offense/ST. Unfortunately, the offense has tried screwing things up such as the three turnovers against San Diego last week that made that a game late. This is a huge game for Trevor Siemian too, as he likes to risk some dangerous plays each week as well. If he can just play within himself, then I think Denver scores just enough for the big road win. Oakland beat the Broncos last year in Denver thanks to a dominant performance from Khalil Mack (5 sacks), which we really haven’t been getting this year. They also got their GWD after Emmanuel Sanders muffed a punt at the 11-yard line. Brandon McManus later missed a game-tying field goal in the 15-12 loss. For a team that plays so many games tightly, these mistakes are almost impossible to overcome.
I don’t see a big rushing night coming from Oakland, so it will be on Carr’s shoulders to produce against this defense. If he does so, then great, but if not, then that stigma of not being able to beat the good teams is still heavily weighing on this team and its young quarterback. This game is very important for Oakland to show that it is indeed another new year, and that the AFC isn’t just about the Patriots, Broncos and Steelers again.
(Yes, I just shafted the AFC South winner, but why wouldn’t I?)
2016 Week 9 Predictions
Felt good about the Falcons on Thursday, and they came through in a big way on a short week against a divisional foe.
Winners in bold:
Cowboys at Browns
Jets at Dolphins
Steelers at Ravens
Eagles at Giants
Jaguars at Chiefs
Lions at Vikings
Panthers at Rams
Saints at 49ers
Colts at Packers
Titans at Chargers
Broncos at Raiders
Bills at Seahawks
Definitely put the Chiefs on upset alert with so many key guys out, but this is the Jaguars. While this may not be a game for Blake “The Garbage Man” Bortles to do what he does best, I can see a failed 4QC/GWD attempt from the Jags that I’ll have to write about for Tuesday. Yay, fun.
Week 1: 7-9
Week 2: 10-6
Week 3: 8-8
Week 4: 8-7
Week 5: 7-7
Week 6: 12-3
Week 7: 10-5
Week 8: 7-6
Season: 69-51
Another bloody tie. I gave myself the loss again only because I said the AFC team (Bengals) would win, while the NFC team (Redskins) actually should have won. Damn kickers.
Captain Comeback: NFL Analysis by Scott Kacsmar 