After a long week, it’s almost time for Championship Sunday. Both No. 1 seeds are favored but crazier things have happened before. Final score predictions below.
This Week’s Articles
- Chiefs-Ravens AFC Championship Game Preview
- Lions-49ers NFC Championship Game Preview
- Scott’s Seven Picks (lots of parlays and props)
- Super Bowl Odds Update – Where the final 4 teams stand going into Sunday
- 3 Keys for Chiefs to beat Ravens
- 3 Keys for Lions to beat 49ers
- Chiefs’ Path to Victory
- Lions’ Path to Victory
- AFC-CG Props (BMR)
- AFC-CG Props (OT)
- NFC-CG Props (BMR)
- Upset Alert: Chiefs over Ravens
- NFC-CG Props (OT)
- Computer Picks (OT)
- Best Bets (Game Props)
NFL Conference Championship Game Predictions
Here is my grid for picks this weekend. Many of the props are explained in the links above.
Chiefs at Ravens (-4.5)
It seems like every year when the Chiefs are in a big game like this, I go back to my Super Bowl LIV preview before they beat the 2019 49ers and the same logic applies to the next game.
This is a game that a team like the Ravens should win most of the time. They have home-field advantage (a good one at that), they have the No. 1 defense, No. 1 running game, a quarterback playing with a chip on his shoulder who is about to get the MVP award again, the best kicker in the game, a coach who has won big games before, and they have killed some top teams this year. Meanwhile, the Chiefs are challenged at wide receiver, have a poor turnover differential, don’t often start games well, don’t protect the ball well, and it probably is going to rain during the game to possibly exacerbate these ball security issues with drops and fumbles against a ball-hawking defense and front-running team.
All that said, the Chiefs have Patrick Mahomes, and that usually is good enough to win the game. He’s 3-1 against the Ravens and would be 4-0 if CEH didn’t fumble in game-winning field goal territory in the last matchup in 2021. He’s 12-2 against top 5 defenses (7-0 away from Arrowhead), he’s 13-3 in the playoffs, and he’s 8-3 as an underdog. He even comes into this game with his best defense as this is a matchup of the top two scoring defenses, so that differential is more on his side this week than in past big games this time of year.
If the Chiefs can cut down on their mistakes, and Kadarius Toney is inactive again (that helps), I think they win the game. But the Ravens were my preseason Super Bowl pick, Lamar Jackson was my Super Bowl MVP pick, and I’ve been predicting doom in the playoffs for the Chiefs since October:
Final: Ravens 24, Chiefs 21
Lions at 49ers (-7.5)
It sounds like Deebo Samuel is playing, which doesn’t help Detroit’s cause as they try to make their first Super Bowl. In a weird way, I think if the Chiefs win the first game, the Lions are winning this game to set up that rematch from opening night. Otherwise, it’s No. 1 vs. No. 1 in the SB, and I’m not sure how many times I can keep writing for 2 weeks how Brock Purdy needs to protect the ball better against that defense this time.
But isn’t that always the case with Purdy and this team? They don’t have normal weaknesses, and they actually showed they could win a close game and overcome some adversity last week against Green Bay. If he doesn’t throw a pick parade, you have to like their chances against anybody, but I am looking to see how the defense fares against one of the best offenses they’ll see this year.
The problem is Detroit comes in with the No. 23 defense and has allowed 5 straight quarterbacks to pass for 345+ yards. They’ve still gone 4-1 in those games and would have been 5-0 if not for a certain ending in Dallas, but that kind of bad secondary play is going to catch up to you, and the 49ers obviously scheme open receivers better than any team in the league. That’s why I love Brandon Aiyuk to step up and dominate this week, though the return of Deebo could hurt that. Watch it be a George Kittle masterclass instead. That’s the problem for Detroit, the 49ers are just loaded.
But I am going to be keenly watching for how aggressive Dan Campbell is as a road underdog. He’s had it a little easy at home as a favorite these last two playoff games. Curious to see how many 4th downs he goes for, if he does anything like a fake punt or surprise onside to steal a possession. Anything to win the game.
But in the end, I think the 49ers are too balanced and simply better than the Lions, so I have to go with the home team. But the Lions should be able to cover even if it’s through the backdoor.
Final: 49ers 30, Lions 23
Captain Comeback: NFL Analysis by Scott Kacsmar 