Tag: Lions

2026 NFL Stat Oddity: Week 7

NFL Stat Oddity 2026
~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

If I’m just being honest, the Sunday action wasn’t very good in the NFL, and the best game of Week 7 was on Thursday night between the Patriots and Bears. A refreshing display of two young quarterbacks playing well from the 2024 draft.

But I think I know why things felt off on Sunday. Despite it bringing the week’s count to nine games with a comeback opportunity, we only had one lead change in the fourth quarter, and that happened 24 seconds into the fourth quarter in Minnesota against the Colts.

We had a few other games where a fourth-quarter tie was broken, including an overtime game in Houston. But those games involved some funky coaching decisions where the home team got lucky in Detroit, and the Browns got away with an egregious false start on their game-winning drive.

Sunday’s two island games in Paris and SNF were also low on possessions, so they didn’t take long to get through, and the stats were depressed from both. That added to some of the malaise of the day. Not that I expect things to get any better on Monday night, but Tanner McKee lighting up Dallas would be entertaining at least.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Packers at Lions: Game of the Week (But Not Really)

This had the makings (and yardage) of a fun shootout. But in the end, it was a 20-17 tussle in the NFC North. The Packers started and ended their day with missed field goals, and the Lions had their first turnovers (that’s plural) since Week 1.

I don’t know if Tom Brady had money on the Lions and his presence in the building led to the Packers missing a 26-yard field goal and 35-yard field goal (blocked) as only the LOAT could conjure, but the Packers had another terrible day on special teams. At least Josh Jacobs looked good in his return, scoring a touchdown and putting up 55 receiving yards. Regular running game was still a bit stagnant (19 carries for 60 yards).

Jared Goff threw for 303 yards, 153 to Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Jameson Williams hogged both touchdowns on a day where tight end Sam LaPorta had just one catch for 18 yards.

But the game was sloppy, and you can question some of the coaching. The Packers were aggressive early with three conversions on fourth down, though when they went to the well one time too many, they came up empty before halftime on 4th-and-4. The only good news is Jahmyr Gibbs answered that stop with a red-zone fumble with 0:19 left in the second quarter.

But Dan Campbell is going to do Dan Campbell things on fourth down, and maybe that rubs off on Matt LaFleur in these matchups. Campbell failed on a 4th-and-5 at the Green Bay 6 late in the third quarter when a chip shot field goal could have given him a 20-14 lead.

After the Packers tied the game at 17, the Lions had another decision on 4th-and-1 at their own 24 with just under 5:00 left. Campbell went for it again, and Gibbs was stuffed for a 2-yard loss. That decision drew the most ire of any coaching decision on Sunday. The fourth-down models out there were reportedly split on it, so you know it’s close at the very least.

I think it was a mistake that ended up not costing Campbell because he got lucky that the special teams ended up blocking the 35-yard kick with 3:21 left.

If you look at the play the Lions ran, they would have been lucky to get a yard. So, let’s say you go for it and convert it. You’re still 75 yards away from the end zone. For all you know, you might be punting after the next three snaps and with less time left, making it less likely you see the ball again. But that’s the successful side, leaving you 75 yards away from the end zone with possession.

On the flip side, if you get stopped like they did, you’re making it far more likely that the Packers have easy access to a score to go up 20-17 or 24-17. Then you’d need a desperate scoring drive. But you’re gifting them that field position. You don’t know they’re going to screw it up and not get the field goal.

I don’t buy the reason that “Green Bay controls the clock” with that much time. Good luck to them if you think they can run out the clock and kick a last-second field goal against a team that has four clock stoppages left. The Lions were likely going to get another possession, and this was a 17-17 game; not a 31-31 efficient shootout. Teams were making mistakes here. It wasn’t a crisp day.

So, I would have been fine with a punt there. It ended up working out as the Lions had the ball back with 3:21 left at their own 25 anyway. It’s as if they got the yard and 90 seconds magically disappeared. One completion to LaPorta and a roughing penalty practically put them in field goal range, which just feels so easy to do anymore when you gotta have it.

A neutral zone infraction on Green Bay on 3rd-and-5 gave the Lions an automatic first down after the 2-minute warning, which really hurt. The Packers were going to let Gibbs score (he had -425 odds to do so too) as their last hope on third down, but he wisely took a dive. Might want to learn how to slide better because he risked a season-ending knee or ankle injury to do it.

The Lions made the 22-yard field goal to get the 20-17 win and move to 4-2, which still has them in third place in the division with the Vikings (6-0) and Bears (5-2). I still think Chicago should probably win this division again as the team with the best chance to show real growth over last year and be very good on both sides of the ball. The Packers and Lions showed some of their dumb tendencies in this one, and the Vikings have that dreadful offense that shouldn’t be this dreadful.

But these games are important in a division that is aiming for history with back-to-back years with everyone above .500.

Chiefs at Seahawks: Super Bowl-Esque If You Mean LV and LIX

Had last season gone better and the Chiefs returned to another Super Bowl to face the 2025 Seahawks, it may have looked like Sunday night but worse with Kenneth Walker on the other side. Even with Walker on their side, the 2026 Chiefs were held to a single field goal and did not reach the red zone once in a 20-3 loss that is just the fifth loss where the Chiefs trailed by double digits for the entire fourth quarter with Patrick Mahomes at quarterback.

Was it inevitable? Successful offensive minds like Kyle Shanahan (49ers), Josh McDaniels (Patriots), and Sean Payton (Broncos) have had their cracks at the Seahawks since the calendar turned to 2026 and things haven’t gone well for them either. The 2026 Seahawks are doing some historic things on defense again under Mike Macdonald, and the Chiefs went into this one without their best wideouts and without both starting offensive tackles.

About the only proven way to beat this Seattle team is to win the turnover battle and get short fields to score on that defense. Even when Washington scored 33 points this year, they were +3 in turnovers and had just one drive longer than 43 yards (it was a 60-yard touchdown drive). The 49ers got to 32 points in Seattle with a return score and touchdown drives of 11, 18, and 74 yards.

If you have to go the distance against this defense, you are probably screwed. On Sunday night, each offense only had eight drives, and both quarterbacks threw one bad pick for the only turnovers. However, Darnold’s pick in the end zone wasn’t returned far enough before halftime, and Harrison Butker was short on a 58-yard field goal. A bad sign for his leg strength.

That also means 25% of the Chiefs’ drives ended with a Butker miss as he was off again from 45 yards after a long drive with 8:33 left to play. That one would have made it 13-6 and possibly set up an interesting ending. Instead, the Seahawks drove for another touchdown with Emanuel Wilson breaking a 21-yard scoring run to go over 100 yards and outclass Walker on the night. That also means the Chiefs’ eighth and final drive came down 20-3 with 3:36 left. I would have put Justin Fields at quarterback at that point.

When the Seahawks aren’t turning the ball over, they’re golden. JSN is the most unstoppable wideout right now, and he was great again with 9/150/1 against all the corners the Chiefs could throw at him. Of course, the Chiefs hadn’t been tested by good WRs during their 5-0 start. Not one bit.

The Chiefs played the easiest portion of their schedule to get to 5-0. In their first big test of the season in terms of a Super Bowl contender, they failed miserably with one of the worst-played games of the Mahomes era.

  • The Seahawks were 11-of-16 on third down, converting seven times on 3rd-and-6+.
  • Seattle’s speed was not going to let Walker beat them; he had 18 touches for 57 yards and never gained more than 7 yards on any play.
  • Xavier “Kadarius Toney” Worthy failed miserably in another game as de-facto WR1 with 11 yards on 6 targets and a drop that left Mahomes visibly frustrated.
  • Mahomes was only credited with one sack, but it was on an odd-looking play where it looked like he wanted to do a quarterback draw and fumbled with a sandwich hit in the open field. Even if he pulled up and wanted to throw, no one was open on the play.

This should be the low point of the season for Kansas City’s offense, which should at least get Rashee Rice back next week for a more important game in Denver. It was always going to be tough to overcome this defense of a desperate team that lost two straight, and the Chiefs never came close to matching Seattle’s intensity.

But in terms of showcasing yourself as a Super Bowl contender again, this game feels like a major red flag on where the Chiefs are in 2026, and that’s not good enough. All the roster flaws were on full display, and it’s unlikely to get much better for them unless by some miracle Josh Simmons decides to play and Tyreek Hill signs on and is 75% of what he once was. That still leaves some serious issues with the pass rush and one idiot kicker who is washed.

If the Chiefs had to face the Seahawks in the Super Bowl, that would probably not go well either. When the Chiefs are playing musical chairs with their offensive tackles against a great defense, you simply can’t trust them to be anything short of a disaster. I’m not sure I can name a team that has succeeded in those circumstances, and the fact this happens this frequently for the Chiefs is the most troubling part of it all. Two Super Bowls, the last two games with Mahomes against Houston and Los Angeles in 2025, and now Sunday night.

If this game isn’t a wake-up call to Reid and Veach that the roster isn’t good enough, then nothing will be this year. They can’t just write this off to tough week on the road shorthanded. Because it’s going to happen again. And again. And again.

And they haven’t proven they can stop it.

Bengals at Ravens: Whoops, They Did It Again

Back so soon, Baltimore? It was just last week when I pointed out in the Cleveland loss how the Ravens are repeating so many of their greatest hits from losses of year’s past whether it’s the blown double-digit leads, the Derrick Henry-led running game disappearing, or Lamar Jackson being out with an injury.

If there wasn’t so much competition from the Chargers, Rams, and Texans, the Ravens (4-3) would be in the mix for the most disappointing team in the NFL this season. This team was a Super Bowl favorite in the AFC and it has a worse record than Todd Monken’s Browns (5-2) and John Harbaugh’s Giants (4-2-1) now.

People will say Jackson being out is the reason, but it’s so much bigger and systemic than that. Even his absence from injury is another issue as fans and some media members are catching on that Jackson will seemingly not play until he feels he’s 100%. You can debate if that’s the right move for his career or not, but just understand there are definitely some quarterbacks who would do more to push to play in a big game like this one. But not Jackson.

And after the latest blown double-digit lead (13-0 at halftime), the Ravens (4-3) are in last place in the AFC North with the Bengals getting the early tiebreaker edge over them. Who knows, Sunday might be the last time this season the Ravens were ahead of the Bengals in the AFC North standings.

Once again, this team had no problem taking a 13-0 lead into the half with Tyler Huntley significantly outplaying Joe Burrow. How often do you see Lamar throw for 215 yards on 21 passes in the first half of a game? Huntley did that here and he’s the lesser passer.

But the second half was a completely different story. Tee Higgins made huge catch after huge catch on the way to 148 yards and a touchdown. The Bengals ripped off five straight touchdown drives, including two that started in Baltimore territory after a turnover on downs and Huntley interception.

The Baltimore offense was again very complicit in the blown lead and loss. After moving the ball so well in the first half, the Ravens followed a three-and-out punt with an ill-advised 4th-and-2 incompletion at the Cincinnati 12 to start the fourth quarter. I probably would have kicked the field goal there to regain the lead given what we know about Cincinnati’s history of trailing in the fourth quarter with Burrow. But tight end Cuevas wasn’t even looking for the ball on a wasted possession.

That kind of sums up the Ravens in these games. Poor attention to detail, lack of focus, no leadership to lean on, bad coaching decisions, and a roster filled with stars who aren’t closers. Suddenly, they’re getting hit for big plays on defense and aiding the opponent with turnovers.

That’s how you become the third team to lead by 13+ points at halftime and still lose by 20+ points. Hadn’t been done since 1951.

Meanwhile, this is the second week in a row the Ravens pitched a first-half shutout, had the halftime lead and lost the game. That only happened one time ever to John Harbaugh and twice under Brian Billick’s watch. This is two weeks in a row just seven games into Jesse Minter’s tenure.

When Minter was in LA the last two years, the Chargers only blew two fourth-quarter leads. Sunday was technically not a fourth-quarter blown lead, but it was a third blown lead of 10+ points in the second half for Minter.

Harbaugh was the scapegoat for these losses. What happens now that he’s gone and things are only worse? You have to put the blame on the players and the person picking the players. That’s why I never felt good about saying it was Harbaugh when Baltimore’s issues year after year were players making critical errors at the worst times.

With Buffalo and Jacksonville up next, the Ravens are really at a tipping point in their season. Things could spiral out of control here if they don’t step up.

Steelers vs. Saints: Some Belle de Jour in Paris

The 16-10 final score in the NFL’s first regular-season game in Paris is extremely misleading. This game had just 13 total possessions between the Steelers (7) and Saints (6), and I didn’t even have to exclude any kneeldown-only drives to get that absurdly low number. Eight of the 13 drives had at least 11 plays to them, so this was a very offensive game despite the score.

Is 13 possessions a record low? No, the 2023 Raiders vs. Broncos season opener had 13 drives too, and it was really 12 when you remove a kneeldown before halftime. But 13 is definitely in record territory.

How did these teams sustain so many long drives despite only combining for two touchdowns and 26 points? There were many near-turnover opportunities as the Steelers came up empty on a few chances at fumble recoveries. They also dropped a pick early from Tyler Shough, though they got him on a big one to start the third quarter. The Saints also missed a 52-yard field goal early in the fourth quarter, and the Steelers took a late field goal off the board due to a game-ending penalty on the Saints. They ran out the clock instead.

I thought Aaron Rodgers played a very smart game, knowing when to check it down, when to go deep, and when to throw the ball at the feet of a receiver who was going to get blown up for a loss of yards or no gain. Shough wasn’t bad either with no running game to speak of (14 carries for 11 yards) while Jaylen Warren had another 101 rushing yards for the Steelers.

In the end, the better team won after the Steelers technically ran out the final 5:52 in a 16-10 final. The key play was Rodgers using his legs to gain 8 yards on a 3rd-and-6 scramble.

The Steelers are 5-2 with a shot for some revenge on Cleveland next week. The Saints fall to 2-5 in the NFC South.

49ers at Falcons: Injuries Catch Up to San Francisco

Maybe the Chiefs should take note of how the 49ers ran their offense through their running backs and tight ends in Atlanta because of all the injuries at wide receiver. Most notably, Mike Evans (Achilles) missed Sunday’s game, his first full game missed this season, and it had an impact thanks to Christian McCaffrey also temporarily leaving the game after a dominant start that helped the 49ers to a 14-3 lead.

Eventually, those injuries hurt the 49ers on their way to their first loss of 2026. Down 19-14 in scoring territory in the third quarter, Brock Purdy forced a pass that was intercepted by Jessie Bates. Even though the Falcons started at their own 10, they put together a 90-yard march that ended with Drake London’s first touchdown of the season (finally) to take a 26-14 lead.

Purdy was then sacked on a 4th-and-10 at the Atlanta 23 as the Falcons racked up two sacks, two picks, and also forced George Kittle to fumble in the final minute of this one. You may have thought a huge Bijan Robinson day would be the path to an upset for Atlanta, but he rushed 20 times for just 63 yards. He did have 5 catches for 59 yards, and Penix threw three touchdowns while taking no sacks and throwing no picks.

The 49ers were able to get the ball back in a 26-20 game with 4:02 left and the ball at midfield. But Purdy never saw the defender for another huge interception with 2:34 left. The Falcons ran the ball three times and added an insurance field goal to go up 29-20.

The 49ers need to get Evans and Deebo back ASAP as it hasn’t been a good six quarters without them going back to the Washington game.

Colts at Vikings: At Least They Didn’t Blow a 33-Point Lead Again

Four years ago, Jeff Saturday’s Colts infamously blew a record 33-0 lead in Minnesota. In 2026, I’m not sure the Vikings can even score over 33 points like that nor will they need to with the way Brian Flores’ defense is performing.

The Colts led for most of the game with Jonathan Taylor’s 38-yard touchdown run on their opening drive. But they struggled to add to it, and the Vikings were down 10-6 in the fourth quarter before Kyler Murray threw a go-ahead touchdown to tight end T.J. Hockenson.

The Colts had nearly the full quarter to answer, but they followed a punt with a missed 48-yard field goal with 4:22 left as kicking has been an issue ever since Adam Vinatieri retired. Meanwhile, a Minnesota kicker actually made a clutch kick from 52 yards to give the Vikings a 6-point lead, which I normally hate. But in the context of facing Daniel Jones, it’s probably fine. Jones had 64 net passing yards on 28 pass plays in this one.

Jones had 94 seconds to lead a touchdown drive, but it lasted two snaps before he threw a pick right to Harrison Smith to end the threat. That’s how the Vikings get to 6-0 and the NFL’s last remaining perfect record. Hard to believe it’s them.

You’d like to see the offense getting better as Murray had his full receiving corps, and the Colts have been one of the worst defenses this season. But a paltry 16 points at home with Murray throwing for 150 yards was enough to get another win.

The real test is next week in Detroit for this team.

Rams at Raiders: If McVay Blew a 28-3 Lead Here…

The Rams scored four straight touchdowns to end the first half as they led 28-3. They basically did whatever they wanted offensively with three touchdown passes from Matthew Stafford, and both running backs topped 90 yards and a score on the ground.

Kirk Cousins hadn’t done much of anything when it was 28-6 going into the fourth quarter. But the Raiders strung together a couple of touchdowns after getting a deflected pick. This could have been a one-score game if they didn’t fail on both two-point conversions in the quarter, so it remained a 28-18 game with 13:12 left. Plenty of time.

If Sean McVay was going to blow a 28-3 lead to this team, he might as well hang it up in Los Angeles. But the Rams had a vintage drive to put it away that consumed almost half the quarter before another touchdown run by Blake Corum. The Raiders got a field goal (35-21) and the Rams ran out the final 4:10.

I don’t know if the Rams (3-4) are necessarily back, but it was a much-needed win to end the slide. Meanwhile, the Raiders continue to be exposed for their lack of weapons at WR and pieces on defense outside of Maxx Crosby. They might still think they’re competing for a wild card berth, but I’d start thinking about starting Fernando Mendoza and let the rookie shake out the growing pains to help him along for 2027.

Broncos at Cardinals: Bo Nix Does His Tim Tebow Thing Early in the Game

I find it funny how Bo Nix gets dinged for playing poor football for three quarters before going off in the fourth quarter. That’s what John Elway did for so many years and Denver fans loved it, and Tim Tebow was taking it to a crazier level in that 2011 season.

But Nix had a better game against a lesser Arizona defense this time, and he did something different in this one. He saw the opening for a long scramble that turned into a 62-yard touchdown run to take a 13-6 lead in the second quarter. Even Tebow and Elway never did that in the NFL.

Nix finished with an 80.3 QBR, though I can only imagine how high it’d be if that was a third-down scramble in the fourth quarter instead of a 2nd-and-7 play in the second quarter.

But that changed the complexion of the game, and R.J. Harvey took a short pass 52 yards for a touchdown in the third quarter for another big play to help Denver not have to rely on the fourth quarter this week. The Cardinals had the ball at the 1-yard line with first-and-goal at the 2-minute warning in a 30-16 game, so they were still going to need to recover an onside kick to make this interesting. But they couldn’t even get the first touchdown after an impressive goal-line stand by Denver to end this one.

Giants at Texans: Your First-Place New York Football Giants

With a division title a real possibility, I applaud John Harbaugh for sticking with J.J. McCarthy after his almost comeback last week from a 34-10 deficit. We all know what Jameis Winston is (and what he isn’t) by now, so why not see what you really have with McCarthy?

“Nine” didn’t disappoint either. He had two touchdown drives and the Giants missed two field goals in the first half alone as he hit 9-of-10 passes to start the day with a third-down drop by Malik Nabers thrown in there too. He was feeling it, because the Houston defense is no longer elite.

It’s not even good at this point, and I have a hard time understanding why when it’s still DeMeco Ryans’ scheme, and they haven’t been decimated by injuries like you’d expect to see drag a unit down. They just gave up 252 yards through the air to McCarthy, and the Giants also rushed for 188 yards, which proved critical in overtime.

It’s truly one of the most disappointing losses in franchise history after an impressive shootout win over Jacksonville in London a week ago. The Texans came home, they were a 10.5-point favorite, and they laid an egg. Sure, C.J. Stroud didn’t have any turnovers, Marvin Harrison Jr. caught his first touchdown, and Tank Dell even contributed a 43-yard catch on a deflected ball for his first action since a gruesome knee injury in December 2024.

But once again, offensive competency was not enough for the Texans, who forced overtime with a late touchdown drive. But the Giants won the coin toss and decided to kick, which I still think is the right strategy most of the time. Let Houston be bound by conservative three-down football and give the loose cannon McCarthy four downs to answer if he needs a do-or-die score.

It didn’t come to that. The Texans didn’t gain a yard on three plays for a quick punt, and McCarthy just had to complete one 9-yard pass to Nabers before his running game did the rest. Cam Skattebo broke off a 42-yard run, and he even slid to make sure he wouldn’t fumble the ball in another overtime after that got him effectively benched last week. Then they put Devin Singletary, the former Texans back, in the game and he finished them off with a 30-yard touchdown run to end it. No field goal shenanigans.

Just like that, the deflated Texans are 2-5 and feeling hopeless again while the Giants (4-2-1) lead the NFC East as the only team with a winning record in the division.

Browns at Titans: Another Predator Sequel in the Fourth Quarter

At this point, I swear Deshaun Watson is purposely playing like ass early to set up opportunities for game-winning drives late to endear himself to the fans. At least he threw for over 300 yards in this one. Nice defense, Saleh.

Even though Tony Pollard had a monster day (129 yards, 3 TD), it wasn’t enough for the Titans. Probably should have seen the warning flags early when their 14-0 lead was built on two touchdown drives that covered a total of 89 yards. The offense didn’t score again until the fourth quarter but at least Cam Ward was able to lead tying field goal and touchdown drives.

But with the game tied 24-24 in the final minute, Watson had the ball at his 45 with just 0:28 left when maybe the most controversial play of the game happened. Cleveland’s right tackle got away with an egregious false start that wasn’t called, and Harold Fannin took the short pass 36 yards to set up the winning field goal from 32 yards on the final snap.

I don’t know how you can miss that one, and I don’t know how there isn’t some mechanism in place in the final 2:00 whether it’s replay assist or being able to challenge something so obvious and game changing. Maybe the Browns take the 5-yard penalty and still hit a pass to kick the winning field goal, but that play should not have counted.

The Browns are 5-2, but I still see no reason to believe in them as a real contender. They slum it with the worst teams and are blowing through their clutch wins before Halloween.

Buccaneers at Panthers: The NFC South Is Destined to Suck

I really do hate this division, because once you start to think a team is figuring things out like Carolina, they just shit the bed their next game. This division produces some unseemly blowouts out of nowhere too like how we saw Carolina win 34-3 in Atlanta in Week 2.

But Sunday was an embarrassment at home for the Panthers and Bryce Young, who took five sacks and had three turnovers, including a fumble returned for a touchdown to make it 17-0 in the second quarter.

Baker Mayfield returned for Tampa Bay, but they could have won this game with a blindfolded Blaine Gabbert if they had to. Mayfield finished just 7-of-11 for 64 yards and a touchdown. The Buccaneers, who rushed for over 250 yards, are the ninth team in the modern era (second since 1979) to score at least 43 points with no more than 65 net passing yards.

I know division games can be weird, but 43-13? Back to the drawing board for the Panthers (3-3), who have a quick turnaround with Green Bay on Thursday night.

Dolphins at Jets: Crack Open the Faygo, 2008 Lions and 2017 Browns

Leave it up to the Jets to let the 2026 Dolphins get their first win in Week 7. The Stooges of the AFC East take care of their own so that the bottom isn’t rock bottom in the NFL. Not that I ever thought Miami was going to seriously challenge 0-17, but they won’t be joining the 2008 Lions and 2017 Browns as the only teams to go 0-16 or worse.

Miami’s offense had by far its best game of the season with rookie Caleb Douglas catching two touchdowns, Ollie Gordon rushed for 103 yards and a touchdown, and a huge sack of Geno Smith on third down forced a field goal in the fourth quarter when the Jets were 3 yards away from the tying touchdown. Miami added another long touchdown to Douglas, and then they were able to run out the final 3:17 on the clock to not give the Jets another chance in a 28-25 game.

In fact, it was a bit ballsy to go quarterback run on 4th-and-1 at the New York 49 with 2:00 left. If you get stopped there, the Jets are a first down away from game-tying field goal range. But Willis picked it up and the game was over. Miami finally has a win.

Next Week

Not crazy about Panthers-Packers on TNF after Sunday’s games. But it beats seeing another NFC East matchup. I think we get a break this week from the 9:30 AM games even with the clock turning back an hour.

The big 1 PM game should be Ravens-Bills, but how can we take anyone’s word for it that Lamar Jackson will actually play? If he’s “not close” to 100%, then I doubt we see him at this point as Baltimore’s season falls apart. Otherwise, Vikings at Lions is a good one that could finally hand the Vikings a loss. But I’ll be mostly watching Browns at Steelers in that slot.

Chargers at Rams is the LA Disappointment Bowl. Chiefs at Broncos is a lot more interesting now. Chiefs could very well lose that one too for similar reasons to Seattle game. Eagles-Commanders is more NFC East bullshit in prime time on Sunday night. Hate they didn’t flex that out. Chicago at Seattle could be very interesting on MNF. Another chance for Ben Johnson to show his value against a defense that many of his top peers have floundered against.

NFL 2026 Week 2 Predictions: The (Maybe) Reversion Edition

~ Scott ~ 1 Comment

NFL teams tied the Week 1 scoring record with just under 50 points per game to start the 2026 season. When you watch the Lions and Bills play a 41-31 game on Thursday to begin Week 2, you might start thinking we are headed for an all-time scoring season around the league after a few years of stagnation.

But no so fast. I don’t think we should let the defenses of the Bills and Lions dictate what’s going to happen around the league this Sunday. It could be another high-scoring week, or we might see some reversion to where teams were a year ago as opponents dictate so much of how games play out.

You can say this every week once an NFL season is underway, but it’s going to be fun figuring out what was real in Week 1 and what’s going to look completely different this Sunday in Week 2. Every year you get good examples of this switch up in Week 2.

I’ll note some things below that I think are real and going to happen again as well as some new twists. But I’d also like to point out that if you are expecting a lot of scoring again, maybe the oddsmakers have prepared for a dull Sunday of scoring. I’m not sure I’ve ever seen so many games on FanDuel where the player with the second-best odds for an anytime touchdown is priced this high:

  • PIT-NE: Jaylen Warren (+190)
  • TB-CLE: Emeka Egbuka (+155)
  • GB-NYJ: MarShawn Lloyd (+140)
  • PHI-TEN: Jalen Hurts (+140) [He’s often better than even]
  • SEA-ARI: JSN (+135) is #1, Jadarian Price (+170) is No. 2
  • DEN-JAX: B.Tuten (+170)
  • SF-MIA: Mike Evans/De’Von Achane (+140)

I doubt we’re getting a fairer shake from the oddsmakers this season. We might just be in store for some overcorrection for last week’s scoring, or we should acknowledge that a crazy number of injuries, especially at WR, have helped produce this.

Zay Flowers (BAL), Nico Collins (HOU), A.J. Brown (NE), and Michael Pittman Jr. (PIT) are all out at WR. Ladd McConkey (LAC) and Puka Nacua (LAR) have their status up in the air as both LA teams need a win. The Falcons are starting QB3 Cooper Rush again. Carson Wentz makes his first start of the season for Minnesota, though that could be a good thing for Justin Jefferson (2 TDs last week). Joe Burrow is questionable to play (maybe that one’s redundant). D.J. Moore (BUF) left Thursday night’s game injured, and I kind of loved that since it helped me hit 3 SGP on what looked like a night where he wasn’t going to do much.

It’s a long season but you can feel like you’re out of things quickly once those injuries start piling up. Then with the Giants potentially going to 2-0 and dropping the preseason favorite Rams to 0-2 to end this week, my Super Bowl pick might be in shambles before the first day of fall.

NFL Week 2 Predictions

I had a so-so Week 1 but no problem with TNF and Buffalo covering. They probably should have won by more than 10 points too.

CAR-ATL: You can’t lose to Cooper Rush and expect to be taken seriously, Carolina. They’ll get the win after showing they can score last week.

NO-BAL: Tricky without Zay after already losing some WR depth, but I can see the defense making life tough on Shough, and I got some props on Wester (30+ yards).

GB-NYJ: Possibly a step towards getting fired during the season if LaFleur loses this one. Jordan Love also wouldn’t help his status if he broke the Jets’ INT drought. But the Packers gotta find a way to win one.

CHI-MIN: I think some of last week carries over for Chicago and they post a good number to clear the over 26.5 points. I don’t think Wentz will protect the ball while trying to keep up in a shootout, so Chicago -4.5 is a top spread pick for me this week.

CIN-HOU: I originally had HOU -2.5, but after seeing Nico Collins is out, I think he’s such a crutch for Stroud, so I don’t expect the Texans to win this one.. 4Q could be comical with the lack of comebacks for both QBs in their careers.

PIT-NE: I was thinking of betting on Michael Pittman Jr. to step up big for Rodgers as I don’t expect much for Metcalf vs. Christian Gonzalez. Then I see MPJ is out too. Guess we’ll find out if the Steelers are a good team based on whether Drake “The Schedule” Maye plays well or struggles with them. The Steelers had 5 takeaways to upset the Pats on the road last year. But that’s a Tomlin type of win. Unless T.J. Watt is a superhero again, I don’t see the Steelers winning this one.

CLE-TB: Baker will shit all over the Browns. He just had to stop fumbling vs. Bengals last week. This should be a rout though I don’t like spreads of 8.5. But the Bucs need to win by 14+ to feel better about Week 1.

PHI-TEN: Titans just looked so lifeless vs. Jets last week. I can’t in good faith trust them here.

JAX-DEN: Jaguars won 34-20 at Denver last December. I think it’s closer this time and the Broncos don’t tackle as horribly as they did Monday vs. Chiefs. But I do like Trevor Lawrence to Parker Washington to get the upset win and drop Denver to 0-2. This time they lose a close one, the kind of game they kept winning last year.

LV-LAC: Ugh, won’t put much into this game with the way the Chargers stunk last week. Raiders did some competent things vs. Miami. The Chargers should win but you never know. Cursed.

ARI-SEA: Another tricky one cause the Cardinals played well, have better coaching, and the Seahawks don’t have Sam Darnold. I couldn’t go all the way in picking them to pull off another upset, so I hedged on the spread. But there’s upset potential and for all we know, the Cardinals could be 2-0 and on top of the NFC West after Monday night.

SF-MIA: A 2-TD spread for Week 2 is nasty but the Dolphins earn it. I think 49ers win by 14+ and I like Mike Evans to score a TD again.

WAS-DAL: Tough call here as it can be close again for the Commanders like vs. Eagles in Week 1. But I know they were blown out in Dallas last year. “Bill” not scoring a TD cost me some incredible wins, so I’m staying away from that game as I just don’t know what this WAS offense is since 2025.

IND-KC: These two rarely play a normal game, so I’m hedging on the classic Chiefs win but don’t cover. Daniel Jones is 1-15 in prime time, and KC’s defense was the most reassuring thing about last week’s performance. Got to see a better passing game, and I worry about the LT situation forcing them to either throw really quick so nothing develops downfield, or they risk Mahomes running around. That’s what’s missing in the KC passing game. They can’t comfortably hold the ball for 2.6-3 0 seconds and just scheme guys open. It’s either coming out in under 2 seconds or he’s extending it past 3.5 with improv, which opens him to injury risk.

But the Colts were the defense that Mahomes threw for his most yards against in 2025, and it was a game with rare clutch moments from Rice and Worthy. I think they get it done, though nothing would ever surprise me in a game involving the Colts against KC.

LAR-NYG: If Puka Nacua doesn’t suit up, I think you have real concerns here as Davante Adams might be washed at this point. Not a WR1 anymore. Then on defense, at least Aaron Donald is back, but what is he after two years away? Then no Myles Garrett (knee). The Giants moved the ball so efficiently last week while the Rams looked toothless on defense and totally lifeless on offense. John Harbaugh as a big underdog? I can dig it. Might end up regretting the pick, but I called the Falcons upsetting the Rams on MNF late last season. I’m not sure Dart can get his first NFL game-winning drive, but this would be a nice spot for it.

Give me the Giants to shock the Rams to 0-2.

2026 NFL Stat Oddity: Week 1

NFL Stat Oddity 2026
~ Scott ~ 7 Comments

I saved this Word document as “Close Encounters – Week 1” after forgetting I’ve given this weekly NFL recap a totally different name than the one I always wanted to use going back to even 2013. But this is Stat Oddity, and we may have just started the 2026 season with the highest-scoring Week 1 in the Super Bowl era.

Or maybe it’s the highest-scoring Week 1 Sunday since 1970 as we want to forget Wednesday and Thursday happened (and for good reason). Either way, the 10 new head coaches and 21 new offensive coordinators led to a lot of points but not a ton of dramatic finishes. We’ve had 7-of-15 games with a comeback opportunity (four successes), though three games did end with a game-sealing drive (Steelers vs. Falcons, Bengals vs. Buccaneers, and Giants vs. Cowboys), and that’s a stat I’d like to cover more thoroughly later this season.

While Week 1 isn’t everything, I think it’s important to make a good early impression and show that it is a new year and things are going to be different. The Cardinals, Ravens, and Giants got that memo. Not so much for the Browns, Titans, Chargers, Packers, and Cowboys. And despite Week 1 wins, I’m not sure the Bills, Steelers, Bengals, and Lions should feel overly confident just yet.

Let’s recap the 13 Sunday games from Week 1.

Bills at Texans: Game of the Week

If you watched DeMeco Ryans’ Houston defense take on Joe Brady’s Buffalo offense the last two seasons, then Sunday’s game was culture shock:

  • Josh Allen wasn’t 9-of-30 passing or dropped for 8 sacks this time; he was 20-of-29 for 334 yards, 2 sacks, and one of the most vertical games of his career with Dalton Kincaid (130) and D.J. Moore having huge games.
  • C.J. Stroud didn’t even play in last year’s win (Davis Mills did), but he had one of his better games here with 26-of-38 passing for 274 yards, 2 touchdowns, and no picks after his ugly postseason run in January stalled contract extension talks for this season.
  • Houston’s new running back, David Montgomery, had 79 total yards and scored 3 touchdowns.
  • It was 24-21 at halftime, a higher-scoring game than these teams have had in four full meetings in Houston in the Allen era.

But I hope this game doesn’t have a huge impact on the AFC playoff standings or the MVP race or Coach of the Year race, because the beginning and end were frankly ridiculous on both sides, and it exposed some of the reasons I still wouldn’t trust either team in January to win the conference and get to the Super Bowl.

Sure, the middle was back and forth, lots more scoring than usual for these teams when they match up, and exciting to watch. But that’s not a good sign for Buffalo’s defense in its first game without Sean McDermott that you’re letting Stroud light you up for 31 points, or that he was 9 yards away from scoring 38. Where’s all this aggression we’re supposed to see from new coordinator Jim Leonhard?

Allen started the game with a terrible 2-yard loss on 4th-and-1 in scoring territory, then they already resorted to their 3rd-and-long lateral play just to put together a 4-yard field goal drive to start the scoring after Stroud lost a fumble on the third play for Houston.

But the last 6:38 really fry me from both sides:

  • Down 31-30, Allen fumbles the snap and is fortunate to recover, leading to a quick three-and-out.
  • The Texans know a 1-point lead isn’t good for shit and they may not even see the ball again, and yet they do the ultra-conservative move of run/run/pass before their own three-and-out.
  • On what became a 96-yard game-winning touchdown drive for Buffalo, James Cook fumbled on the first run and Buffalo’s incredible fumble luck struck again as they recovered this one in the open field.
  • After getting to the Houston 34, Allen decided to throw a deep ball for the end zone with 1:48 left instead of working the clock to try to set up a field goal as the final snap, and it ended up being an atrocious dropped interception by Kamari Lassiter.

I’m not going to call it an obvious game-ender since the Bills still had three timeouts and enough time to get the ball back in a 1-point game. But it absolutely could have won the game for Houston, and he just dropped it. Then one play later he gets beat on the coverage for a touchdown to Josh Palmer. Then like clockwork, the Bills screwed up another 2PC, so they left themselves vulnerable at 36-31 to lose to a touchdown.

And since the Bills went for the chunk plays again, Stroud had plenty of time to make a legacy drive with 91 seconds, two timeouts, and 71 yards to go. We haven’t really seen him do this since that great drive to beat Tampa Bay in his rookie year, but the problem there is Stroud almost never pulls off these drives in the NFL. He’s now 2-11 at 4QC opportunities in his career.

But this could have been his moment in a big game to start the season on a high note. It looked like he might do it after getting the Texans to the 9-yard line with 25 seconds left after more breakdowns in Buffalo’s secondary. But then Stroud just ate a sack, lost 9 yards, and had to burn the last timeout. That’s the kind of play where your quarterback has to send the ball through the eighth row. Just inexcusable to take a sack.

Then two plays later with the game on the line from the 18, he does it again after a hurry-up snap, which never seem to work in the NFL anymore unless you can catch them with 12 men on the field. But I think the hurried snap led to panic in Stroud, and he coughed up the ball for his second fumble of the game to blow it.

So, I don’t think this game does anything to really move the needle for these teams when it comes to getting to the Super Bowl. I think they both showed some of their usual flaws with the Bills’ defensive shortcomings and tendency to make crushing mistakes at the worst times, and Stroud can’t be trusted on a GWD situation.

The best thing it does for Buffalo winning is it makes it less likely they’ll have to go back to Houston for a rematch in January.

Cardinals at Chargers: Upset of the Week

Every season there’s usually a big upset in Week 1, and it just so happens to be Cardinals at Chargers this year. I had a bad feeling, which is why I picked the Cardinals +9.5 ATS. My thought was the Cardinals moved the ball really well last year with Jacoby Brissett, they moved it as well as anyone in the 2026 preseason under new coach Mike LaFleur, and the Chargers were replacing Jesse Minter at defensive coordinator and could struggle there.

But I trusted Jim Harbaugh and his BFF Justin Herbert to win this one at home as they have much harder games to come. Mostly, I thought Mike McDaniel would have a big impact on the offense, allowing for more explosive plays now that Herbert has more receivers beyond Ladd McConkey, the two tackles were healthy, and McDaniel’s Miami offenses usually peaked in September. It felt like a slam dunk for a 30+ point outing for Herbert against one of last year’s worst defenses.

It never materialized. The Chargers never led, the Cardinals had the two longest gains of the game, and the Chargers didn’t run the ball well, had little going for them outside of Ladd McConkey (left injured too), and Herbert took three sacks as they beat up the interior of his line instead this time.

You have to love the play late in the game where three Chargers blocked one Cardinal while two free rushers got in on Herbert for a sack.

It was one of the worst performances for the Chargers in the Harbaugh era. Maybe the Cardinals are a surprise team this year, but I have a hard time believing they’re still not headed for last place in the best division. The Chargers just seemed really out of sorts on offense, and that Minter-less defense wasn’t impressive at all. Brissett’s only sack didn’t lose any yards, and they gave up a touchdown on the opening drive to rookie back Jeremiyah Love.

Arizona somehow has two wideouts playing better than Marvin Harrison Jr. now as Kendrick Bourne caught all 8 of his targets for 75 yards, but even MHJ had a 33-yard grab, the longest play of the game.

Remember when McDaniel was supposed to unleash Herbert’s arm? We’ll have to wait to see it I guess as it was a total dud in Week 1, and that screwed up a ton of bettors, including my best parlays on Sunday.

Does Madison Beer even know about Chargers BINGO and the level of curse she’s getting involved with here? It runs deep.

Bears at Panthers: Did Ben Johnson Know What He Had?

Ben Johnson might be a mad genius after all. Proclaiming this summer that he wants to break the 2013 Broncos’ single-season scoring record, his team went out and dropped 59 points in Carolina in Week 1. Not bad for someone coaching a team that many soured on and expected to be a prime regression candidate in 2026.

For the record, I picked the Bears to win 10 games and get a wild card berth in my predictions. But I’ll entertain the scoring record if they can drop a healthy number on Brian Flores’ Vikings in Week 2 as the Panthers just lack the key pieces for an adequate defense this year.

Still, 59 points on the road is a crazy number to start the season. In fact, the 96 combined points are the most in a season opener in NFL history. That’s also why I wish Johnson would realize his goal is not a good one as high-scoring juggernauts just don’t win Super Bowls. You need balance, and giving up 37 points to the Panthers is not a good sign for their defense.

Granted, putting pressure on the Panthers to keep scoring, the Bears were able to make the fourth quarter pretty much irrelevant, which was always going to be key this year after the way they won so late in games in 2025. That’s one way to avoid that. They also still forced three turnovers after leading the league in turnover differential, so that’s a good start on that front too.

They also did this with Colston Loveland not catching a pass, Rome Odunze catching two passes, and 32-year-old receiver Kalif Raymond led the way with 84 yards on 8-of-9 targets caught. Go figure, Johnson imports a Detroit receiver and he immediately leads the team in Week 1 after he’d be maybe fifth on your depth chart in terms of your best receiving option.

Throw in an elite running game that piled up 291 yards with Caleb Williams running for 65 yards and two touchdowns to complement two 100-yard rushers, and you have some real potential to light up the scoreboard all year. I don’t know about the scoring record, but they definitely can outdo what they did last year.

Either way, the Bears are going to be a lot of fun this year, and that’s one of the best things about Johnson hooking up with Caleb in Chicago. Making the Bears must-see TV for their offense for the first time ever basically.

Packers at Vikings: The Body Weight Rule Strikes Again in This Rivalry

Why does the body weight rule always seem to pop up in Packers vs. Vikings game the last decade?

It’s still hard to believe the Packers turned a 22-10 lead with 20 minutes left into a 39-22 loss. They knocked out Kyler Murray, who saw his first game with Minnesota end on an interception on his first throw, then a nasty hit to the head for a concussion. Enter Carson Wentz, who took three sacks against a defense still missing Micah Parsons (ACL), and some would say a few more should have counted.

It ended up being a controversial day for officiating in this one. I thought Jordan Love was having one of his best games ever until he wasn’t in the fourth quarter. Everything turned for the Packers after they declined the points on a 40-yard field goal that would have put them up 25-17 with 13:17 to play because the Vikings were offsides.

It’s a defendable call. You try for the 4th-and-1 at the Minnesota 17, you burn more clock if you convert it, then you have chance to make it a two-score game or at least get the shorter field goal eventually. Except Love did the sneak, and the virtual measurement said he didn’t get it, so the Vikings got the ball back down 22-17. I can’t really fault Matt LaFleur for that one.

Then on a weekend with some shaky game-winning drives (Bills), the Vikings really took the cake here. Typical I guess when Carson Wentz is the one coming off the bench to lead it, but Green Bay thought it stopped him on a 3rd-and-11 only to get caught for an illegal contact to extend the drive. Then they got another 3rd-and-3 stop on an incomplete pass only to get hit with a ridiculous roughing the passer penalty. Then a Wentz interception on third down in the end zone was negated by defensive holding.

Did Tom Brady host a LOAT seminar this summer that only Wentz, Burrow, and Allen had the details for? How to will the defense to commit multiple penalties on the same GWD? How to get the opponent to drop your picks and how to will your defense to recover fumbles?

Eventually, Aaron Jones scattered into the end zone for the go-ahead touchdown combined with the 2-point conversion pass to Justin Jefferson, who looks elite with any quarterback besides J.J. McCarthy (and I guess Max Brosmer).

Down 25-22, the Packers lost yards on three straight plays as Brian Flores kept blitzing Love, and he was sacked on back-to-back plays, including a fumble that set up the Vikings for a 1-yard touchdown drive to make it 32-22 with 4:48 left. Love was picked off on a deflection two plays later and the rout was on.

The Packers lost their sixth-straight game for the first time since the year before Brett Favre wound up in Green Bay. They’ve also blown their third multi-score lead in that time.

It’s a brutal way to lose a game you felt like you had control of for most of the day. But anymore, the Packers have shown they can blow just about any game. Makes you realize why teams usually just fire the coach who loses his last five games in a season…

Buccaneers at Bengals: Fumble Luck Sliders Maxed Out Already?

The 33-27 final score suggests a shootout, except in true Cincinnati fashion in the Joe Burrow era, it really wasn’t one. Both defenses scored a touchdown, but the Bengals’ new defense stole the show by forcing the Buccaneers into four lost fumbles (three by Baker on wild scrambles or strip-sacks). That means 50% of Tampa Bay’s eight drives ended with a lost fumble.

That’s impressive stripping, but it’s obviously not sustainable to force and recover that many fumbles, and Mayfield was still 23-of-28 passing for 216 yards in the game. The Bengals will have to get better there but at least they got the turnovers and also sacked Mayfield four times as his first game after the $55M AAV extension was a disaster.

Cincinnati’s offense moved the ball decently, doing its best on third downs (8-of-14). But it wasn’t a clean game for Joe Burrow as he threw another pick-six, something that plagued him in 2025 when he came back. That always seems to throw him off, being the perfectionist, the rest of the game too, but Evan McPherson was able to make a 58-yard field goal to save one drive for more points. Ja’Marr Chase was unusually quiet with 12 yards on the day.

But after a Mayfield scramble for a touchdown made it 33-27 with 3:19 left, the Bengals were aggressive in the four-minute offense and Burrow was able to put the game away with his receivers, converting three passes for first downs, then a 3rd-and-1 keeper to ice the clock for good.

The Bengals should feel encouraged about winning a game where Chase did little and the defense had all those turnovers. But Burrow can’t be happy about another pick-six, and he knows those turnovers aren’t always going to be for him on the other side every week.

As for the Bucs, the good news is they play in the NFC South where every team is 0-1, which is right on brand. I’d expect Baker to bounce back with a huge game against the Browns next week.

Cowboys at Giants: Is New York Ready for This? Dallas Was Not

I give the NFC East a hard time because I feel they’re usually pushed on us in national games because of the size of their media markets instead of the value of their product. Cowboys vs. Giants has been an especially egregious rivalry to feature in the last decade as Dak Prescott has dominated New York. After getting swept by the G-Men in his 2016 rookie season, Prescott won 14 straight starts in 2017-25 before leaving Week 18’s irrelevant game early, and the Giants went on to win that one.

That means for the first time since his rookie year, Dak just lost a game he finished against the Giants. It only involved the only game since 1991 (if not all of NFL history) where both teams converted over 72% of the time on third down, hence seven possessions for each team.

Sure, there was a time in the previous decade (2006-15) when this was good when it was Eli Manning vs. Tony Romo in entertaining games. But watching the Giants try to outscore Dak with Daniel Jones and Saquon Barkley just wasn’t that fun.

However, he may have new competition to deal with as Jaxson Dart opened his second season with one of his best games, leading the Giants to four touchdowns on six drives before running out the final 5:21 on the clock in a 28-20 game on his seventh possession. Keep in mind one of the only two stops the Cowboys had involved a Cam Skattebo fumble, so Dart was very protective of the ball and extremely efficient.

Dart showed patches of elite drive efficiency as a rookie, and that was impressive given he almost never had his best wideout (Malik Nabers) and best running back (Skattebo) together because of injuries. In his first full game with them, he did this as the revamped Dallas defense actually took some steps backwards with poor communication on the field. I also think adding Isaiah Likely at tight end is a big move as he can finally unleash himself from playing behind Mark Andrews in Baltimore. Matt Nagy gets a lot of grief, and I never bought for a second the Kansas City decline in 2023-25 was his fault, but he delivered in Game 1 as OC of the Giants.

John Harbuagh also found a lead he couldn’t blow, though both teams had some stupid penalties on the night. Dallas just had the last few critical ones like when Javonte Williams was penalized for taunting for celebrating a touchdown too early by pointing. That cost his team, which was down 14 points before his score, a chance to go for two early, then the Cowboys missed the 15-yards deeper extra point, keeping it a 28-20 game.

Then with the Cowboys down to two clock stoppages with 2:10 left, they pulled Dart down by the facemask at midfield, drawing another 15-yard flag and automatic first down.

After watching the other teams with second-year quarterbacks fail to impress on Sunday, maybe the Giants with Harbaugh and Dart are the one to watch for a breakout season in 2026. Guess we’ll find out next week when they play the 0-1 Rams how much of this is new leadership and better health vs. how much is playing a dumb team like Dallas.

Commanders at Eagles: Ho-Hum, the Eagles Won, and Stefon Diggs Is Still Dumb

It pains me to say this, but Jayden Daniels is getting close to unwatchable territory. The Eagles have a good defense, but he’s solved them before as a rookie (2024) when they were Super Bowl-worthy. But on Sunday, even with healthier weapons than he had last year, he really struggled to get the ball downfield, and that’s why it was 17-9 going into the fourth.

Fortunately, Daniels made some nice scrambles and smart throws to lead two late touchdown drives to keep this one competitive. Unfortunately, Stefon Diggs went full diva with a penalized celebration for humping the goal post after his first touchdown with the team. That cost the Commanders a shot at the game-tying two-point conversion with 9:59 left.

The Eagles answered with a touchdown to Dallas Goedert, his second of the day, as they found ways to score in both halves this time after they started to scare you with 2025 déjà vu after starting the second half with three straight three-and-out drives. But Jalen Hurts played one of his best games of the last two years, and Dontayvion Wicks stepped up with 73 yards and a touchdown. Like I said before the season, I actually think Hurts will be better without A.J. Brown this year.

Still, it wouldn’t be an Eagles game without a close finish, and after Daniels threw a touchdown to make it 24-22, the Eagles weren’t fooled at all by the little shovel pass attempt to tie it, so they stuffed that.

The Eagles recovered the onside kick and that was it. I get that the Eagles have a nice pass rush and secondary, so that’s how you end up with Terry McLaurin catching two passes for 14 yards. But rookie Antonio Williams was productive (4-64-1), and Diggs did well (4-55-1) penalty withstanding. They have a good mixture of weapons around Daniels this year, so we need to see better results as it’s hard to believe this guy was the uber-efficient and consistent rookie we saw in 2024.

Saints at Lions: Too Close for Comfort in Detroit

Not sure any win feels more like a loss in Week 1 than Detroit over the Saints. Like the Bengals, the Lions were a team hoping for an easier schedule and better health to key players will lead them back in the playoffs this year. It should have been a layup to get the Saints at home in Week 1 as a 6.5-point favorite, and despite some boring early action – save for a ridiculous call of an incomplete pass when it looked like Jared Goff fumbled the ball backwards – the Lions led 21-0 more than halfway through the third quarter.

Tyler Shough had some good moments last year as a rookie but they all came against losing teams. He was losing his shit for much of this game with numerous sacks and turnovers, but he shook it off and ended up throwing 56 passes for 410 yards and 3 touchdowns. Four straight scoring drives ended up tying the game at 24, and I agree with the decision to tie it on an extra point with 1:07 left (too much time).

In fact, the Saints got the ball back with 0:27 after forcing a three-and-out (not Jared Goff’s best day), and Shough almost worked the ball into game-winning field goal range. A 62-yard field goal is feasible these days, but Daniel Carlson was way off on his attempt, so we went to overtime.

I think the Saints were right to go on defense first as you want the ball last with four-down football and knowing exactly what you need. The Lions drove 70 yards for a touchdown, making it look easy with Amon-Ra St. Brown catching his second of the day, but the game is no longer over even in the regular season.

Shough had his chance, and he led another 80-yard touchdown drive with 1:34 left. You’re not playing for a tie in Week 1, so I agree with the decision to go for two here by Kellen Moore. Shough had to hold the ball, and the defense was good enough to force Lance out of the back of the end zone as I’m not sure he was going to be able to catch it in bounds.

The Lions held on for the 31-30 win in a game that looked like it might end with under 30 combined points for a while there. We’ll see where the Saints go from here, but a bit of a red flag for the Lions in nearly giving this one away. Tough game up next with the Bills too on Thursday night to christen their new stadium in a meaningful game.

Falcons at Steelers: A Mike Tomlin Tribute

For the first time since the 2006 season, the Pittsburgh Steelers played a game without Mike Tomlin as their head coach. But he may as well have been there spiritually as this was a struggle-fest against a third-string quarterback (Cooper Rush) that was right up Tomlin’s alley.

The reunion of Mike McCarthy with Aaron Rodgers led to the quarterback throwing his most passes in the first half of a game since 2020. But there wasn’t a lot of success down the field, the running game never materialized, and while newcomer Michael Pittman Jr. looked good (caught all 3 targets for 58 yards), Rodgers still stuck to his guys from last year as DK Metcalf, Pat Freiermuth, and Roman Wilson combined for 21 targets. Eleven more went to the running backs on those little swing passes Rodgers fell in love with (out of necessity) in 2025.

I would have loved to see rookie Germie Bernard get a target but he didn’t. I would have liked to see more Pittman Jr. usage. Maybe they were saving things cause they thought they could get past an injury-riddled Atlanta team – how the fvck are you this banged up in Week 1? – and can show more against New England next week. But I was kind of disappointed in the offense scoring 13 points and needing T.J. Watt to take over with two sacks and a brilliant pick-six to provide the winning margin in the end.

With that said, like last year, Rodgers’ arm still looks strong despite his age. He also threw some great passes through defenders down the middle of the field, and his receivers (Metcalf and Wilson particularly) let him down multiple times with drops. So, his numbers could have easily been better here.

But slumming it in a 13-10 game with a badly injured team starting Cooper Rush – swinging it out to Bijan Robinson was the only play he seemed to have – and still needing a Watt pick-six and Nick Folk to blow multiple field goals is such a nice tribute to Mike Tomlin.

Ravens at Colts: Unleashing the Triplets

After the Colts marched right down the field with seven straight passes from Daniel Jones to get a Jonathan Taylor touchdown run, you thought maybe this is going to be the first half of 2025 all over again.

Then the rest of the game happened, and now I’m thinking those first 4.5 minutes may be the peak of the 2026 Colts’ season. Zay Flowers caught a 49-yard pass on the first play from scrimmage for the Declan Doyle offensive era in Baltimore, and the Ravens were soon on their way to 41 points with huge games from Lamar Jackson (324 passing yards on 25 attempts), Flowers, and Derrick Henry (144 yards, 3 touchdowns).

That’s the “Triplets” approach after the Ravens lost some depth this offseason. But it could clearly work well. Unfortunately, Flowers left after putting up 150 yards and a touchdown after a hamstring injury, and those can always linger. Hopefully he’ll be okay as it will be harder to throw efficiently without that major piece available.

But it’s a good debut for Jesse Minter as the Ravens had no issues salting the game away, taking a 38-16 lead in the fourth quarter and winning 41-23. I didn’t see much from Daniel Jones in this one, but there will be easier games for the Colts to come. Just not enough easy ones to take them as serious contenders in this AFC.

Jets at Titans: Not the Revenge Game That Robert Saleh Had in Mind

About the only way Robert Saleh and Brian Daboll’s debut with the Titans could have gone worse was if Cam Ward threw a pick-six to the Jets after they had zero picks in 17 games last year. That streak added another game, but it didn’t even matter as they won 23-10 in a stinker of a game that should really crush the hopes of Titans fans that this year would be better.

I wouldn’t even call it very efficient offense from the Jets as they were only 2-of-12 on third down. But Geno Smith strung together some drives in his return to the team, took no sacks, had no turnovers, and they kept the ball for 38:46 as the Titans could barely run any plays.

Hell, maybe they should have thrown some picks and forced some things with Ward. On multiple occasions down three scores in the final 18:00, Saleh punted like a coward, including once from the New York 43. Calvin Ridley didn’t even have a target while new rookie wideout Carnell Tate had four catches for 38 yards.

Just a miserable day for the Titans, who appear to be directionless.

Dolphins at Raiders: And the Award for Worst Wide Receiver Room Goes To…

I’m still amused that they matched up the two worst wide receiver rooms in the league for rookie coaches in Week 1. But in the end, Klint Kubiak’s scheme won out because he could still get running back Ashton Jeanty properly involved with 147 yards from scrimmage and two receiving touchdowns. With Brock Bowers out, Jeanty led the team with 45 receiving yards.

Malik Willis was basically what you’d expect on a reworked team with little around him. He led them in rushing (39 yards), scored a touchdown that way, and was completing a fair share of passes early before taking 5 sacks and ending with 13 points.

Long year for the Dolphins to come, and I’d be surprised if the Raiders had many more wins too when the schedule gets much tougher. Even in this game, Kirk Cousins threw two picks and barely averaged 5 YPA.

Browns at Jaguars: If You Haven’t Already, Get Used to This, Cleveland

The Browns are used to terrible seasons as they were 0-16 in the last decade. But they could be a special kind of awful in 2026 after going with Deshaun Watson at quarterback and trading Myles Garrett for Jared Verse while installing a new defense sure to be worse than the one Jim Schwartz coordinated.

I’ve been building up Cleveland for the No. 1 pick in the draft with a season likely to be embarrassing on both sides of the ball, and they lived down to those expectations on Sunday with a 34-10 loss in Jacksonville that wasn’t even as close as the score suggests. In fact, Watson’s 46-yard touchdown pass to rookie Denzel Boston in garbage time gave him passable stats by the naked eye, but don’t let one meaningless score massage those numbers too much.

The Browns scored 3 points on their first 8 drives with Watson, which is terrible production as he wasn’t getting anything out of their only two receivers worth a damn in the last two seasons in Jerry Jeudy (2024) and Harold Fannin Jr. (2025).

The defense was absolutely shredded by Trevor Lawrence, who was 18-of-23 for 245 yards and 4 touchdowns to four receivers with Parker Washington (5-83-1) leading the way again.

Get used to more Cleveland blowouts like this in 2026. We’ll learn exactly where Jacksonville is at in Year 2 for Liam Coen with the Broncos, Patriots, Bengals, Eagles, and Texans up next before an early bye.

Next Week:

Should be plenty of points scored in Lions-Bills on Thursday night. Early Sunday has interesting games like Bengals-Texans, Steelers-Patriots, Vikings-Bears, and we’ll see if the Packers can stop the bleeding at the Jets. Could be another stunner in Arizona if the Cardinals get to a 2-0 start by beating Seattle, which will likely be without Sam Darnold (hip). Jags-Denver might be the main attraction at 4:25. Colts at Chiefs for SNF is a display of two teams who have slumped hard since their last meeting in November. Then the Rams suddenly have their hands full against the Giants without Myles Garrett.

NFL 2025 Week 17 Predictions: The End of Harbaugh-Lamar Edition

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

While Netflix is traditionally shady about releasing the true ratings of its programming, the NFL probably saw a ratings decline over last Christmas because all three games on Thursday featured a third-string quarterback, and the only team that really had playoff hopes was Denver, who are not a big draw on the national stage at this point.

But in true NFL fashion, the underdogs were 3-0 ATS and the Lions even ended their season in embarrassing fashion by losing 23-10 to the Vikings, who started Max Brosmer at quarterback and finished with 3 net passing yards. That’s the fewest net passing yards in a win since the 2006 Texans were below zero.

That’ll end the fifth year together for Jared Goff and Dan Campbell, and that disappointing result combined with another potentially disastrous ending this weekend for Baltimore had me thinking about the Five-Year Rule again.

This is something I first wrote for FiveThirtyEight in 2017 about how no team has won its first championship after starting the same quarterback for the same coach for more than five years.

It’s continued every year since, and you can actually go back to 1950 and it still stands true for all NFL championship-winning duos. Two of the biggest tests to this rule, which I’ve been highlighting for years now in their season previews, are the Bills (Sean McDermott-Josh Allen) and Ravens (John Harbaugh-Lamar Jackson).

They are both in Year 8 together since those quarterbacks were drafted in 2018, and neither has still reached a Super Bowl, let alone won one. Both can blame Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs for hogging up that spot so often as well as going 5-0 in the playoffs against their teams.

But the Chiefs are gone this year. That paves the way for Buffalo and Baltimore, but things have literally never been the same for the Ravens, my preseason SB pick, since Derrick Henry fumbled on opening night in Buffalo and the Ravens blew that 15-point lead in the fourth quarter.

The Ravens have been 1-5, Lamar Jackson was knocked out with that hamstring injury, they were still 6-5 after he struggled upon return, and now they’re 7-8 and facing a must-win game at Green Bay on Saturday night to prevent the Steelers from locking up the AFC North before even having to take the field in Week 17.

Yet, season on the line, and it’s looking like the final meaningful game of the Lamar Jackson-John Harbaugh era won’t even have Jackson on the field after he left last week’s loss against the Patriots with a back injury.

You can talk about Jackson trade rumors, but the fact is Harbaugh is always the one likely to get the boot here after a ton of disappointment in the playoffs since his only ring in 2012. The team’s lack of complementary football this year just might be the final nail in the coffin for Harbaugh after 18 years on the job.

The Five-Year Rule will persist after claiming one of its strongest challengers. We’ll see if it can outlast the pairing of Allen and McDermott too, but if there’s anything clear about this 2025 season, it’s that nothing is a given anymore.

The Broncos are a good bet to get the No. 1 seed and they had to stop Kansas City’s third-string quarterback on a final drive. The Rams are Super Bowl favorites despite already blowing four games, including two games as a 8+ point favorite. They could do it a third time in Atlanta on Monday night, a game that could decide Matthew Stafford’s MVP outcome.

It’s a good thing Stafford and McVay got it done right away in 2021, or else I’d be talking about the Five-Year Rule for them and how this is do or die time for this pairing.

This Week’s Articles

(I’ll add the NFL picks later when posted)

2025 NFL Quarterback Rankings Week 17: Matthew Stafford and Drake Maye Do Not Disappoint in Prime-Time MVP Race

NFL Week 17 Predictions

I even said on Twitter that going chalk on Christmas was a bad idea because they’re all big spreads in divisional rematches. Yet I still did it because I hated the slate on paper that much, and yep, the results speak for themselves.

HOU-LAC: My most anticipated game this weekend because it should feel like a playoff game even if that laxed SoFi crowd wouldn’t make it sound like one. But I think it has big implications as AFC West is still in play for the Chargers, and the Texans are rolling with 7 straight wins. I’m going to trust that defense against Herbert’s OL to get it done too.

BAL-GB: Sounds like Jordan Love (concussion) is good to go against Tyler Huntley, so while the Packers are a bad spread bet as a favorite this year, I think they take care of the Ravens here as I just trust LaFleur more than Harbaugh right now.

SEA-CAR: Panthers are 5-1 ATS as a home underdog. If the Titans can lose a 30-24 game to these Seahawks, I have to believe Carolina can keep it close, if not add another shocking upset to their list.

ARI-CIN: Your classic big Jacoby Brissett stat line + failed 4QC/GWD as Burrow piles up numbers in a meaningless game.

TB-MIA: Bucs are in a free-fall, but I’m just going to trust them to pick it up here.

JAX-IND: Should be a good one with points, but I think the Colts are playing awful defense and Trevor Lawrence is cooking for maybe the first time ever in his career.

NE-NYJ: Somehow, the Jets are even worse than they were the last time these teams met.

NO-TEN: Call me crazy but I think the KC win will energize this Tennessee team to go on a little run to end this season even if Shough’s been a better rookie QB than Ward. He does have more to work with, including a coach with a brain.

PIT-CLE: I think this game will be ugly as hell with almost no passes from the Steelers to deny Myles Garrett breaking the sack record against them. But I think they’ll force Shedeur into mistakes that set up scores.

NYG-LV: The Giants have Dart and the Raiders need that No .1 pick more. I’d advise the Raiders to lose this Tank Bowl and secure the No. 1 pick.

PHI-BUF: Both teams would love to run more than pass in this matchup, but if they are forced to pass, I’m still trusting Allen at home more than Hurts on the road.

CHI-SF: 49ers haven’t punted since November and it sounds like George Kittle is playing. 49ers can win out and not have to leave Levi’s all the way through Super Bowl 60. Give me the hot team here over the team that relies on turnovers and insane comebacks.

LAR-ATL: Stafford’s MVP case is sealed or destroyed here. I feel bad for him cause this spread really should not be that high given the way the Rams are struggling on defense, the Davante injury, the Atlanta pass rush, and it’s not hard to see Kirk Cousins dealing with his full weapons and pulling this one out. I’m not sure Stafford can survive a fifth loss and win MVP. His stats aren’t as good or consistent as 2016 Matt Ryan’s were. Just have to hope the Falcons do some Falconing and the Rams prevail.

2025 NFL Stat Oddity: Week 16

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I cannot recall an NFL season that felt this wide open as it does in 2025. Big leads don’t feel safe no matter who you’re playing, and even for the teams looking at the wild card paths to the Super Bowl, there’s no juggernaut or historic team out there that I’ll say they can’t beat on the road in January.

That last part is the important one. In the past years I’ve covered, you always had some team with Brady, Manning, or Mahomes that you just wouldn’t expect to ever lose to a low seed like the 2016 Texans (Brock Osweiler year), 2020 Browns (no defense), or when the 2023 Steelers snuck in with Mason Rudolph.

But not this year.

  • Not when you can watch the Seahawks’ version of Sam Darnold overcome his kryptonite (Rams) with a 16-point comeback win on Thursday night in what I called the Game of the Year this weekend. He has a great defense backing him up.
  • Not when the Bears can wipe out a 10-point deficit in the last 5:00 to beat Green Bay in overtime, and we’ve already seen them run over the Eagles in Philly.
  • Not when the Eagles are playing sound defense, the running game is starting to pick things up, and you can at least argue they’ve been to the Super Bowl twice since 2022 and big-game experience matters.
  • Not when the Panthers have already upset the Packers, Rams, Buccaneers, etc. and should have won in Philadelphia last year (Xavier Legette drop) as Bryce Young turns into Steve Young in big moments.
  • Not when the Rams should probably be 15-0 if not for blowing every loss in inexplicable fashion.
  • Not when the 49ers have a path to the No. 1 seed that includes sweeping Darnold in Week 18 (a la how Detroit did last year) and have the Super Bowl at home this year.
  • Not when the Packers – okay, this one is probably a stretch without Micah Parsons and Tucker Kraft. But if Jordan Love can return on Saturday…

But we’re used to seeing the NFC offer new contenders. What about the AFC that’s been dominated by quarterback stability? Well, that’s simply not the case this year as Sunday proved again:

  • The Broncos (12-3) saw their 11-game winning streak snapped in impressive fashion by Jacksonville, the first bad game Denver’s played all year. Still in line for the No. 1 seed though.
  • The Patriots (12-3) are right on Denver’s heels and that big comeback win in Baltimore should do wonders for Drake Maye’s confidence and development in games like this.
  • The Jaguars (11-4) have been red hot since the bye week, they can score 25+ every week, and they get turnovers on defense. What’s really stopping Trevor Lawrence from going on an Eli/Flacco/Foles type of run?
  • The Steelers (9-6) always flop in the postseason, but I think this season has been different in several areas we’ll get into the next few weeks. If they do have to play the Bills in the wild card and can find a way past that one, they have dark horse potential with Aaron Rodgers playing his best ball at the right moment.
  • The Chargers (11-4) still have a shot to win the AFC West by beating Houston and Denver, and if they can do that behind Justin Herbert and Jim Harbaugh, who can’t they beat in this AFC?
  • The Bills (11-4) may be terrible at stopping the run, but they stop the pass, they can run the ball too, they put up points, and they have big-game experience and have done well against basically every team but the Chiefs (not in the picture this year) over the years.
  • The Texans (10-5) struggling with the Raiders may give you pause, but they have the best defense in the NFL this year and could be a problem for anyone they face with a playoff win in each of the last two seasons.

There are usually several playoff teams you can just write off for having a pathetic defense or rookie/backup quarterback. But that’s not going to be the case this year, and I don’t think there’s any “chalk” matchup here. I could be sold on 49ers vs. Texans in Super Bowl 60 just as easily I could be told Eagles vs. Bills in Week 17 is a Super Bowl preview, or even Patriots vs. Rams for the third time this century

This must be that “parity” people speak of but never really get like this. I’m not sure if this will lead to me doing more research than usual in January, always my busiest month of the year, or if I’ll be inclined to do less and just sit back and let this madness unfold since so many of these teams don’t have a track record to rely on.

All I know is just about every time someone tries to anoint a team as the one to beat this year, they usually show you with the quickness that they are very beatable. Even if they’re up double digits late in the game.

But Week 16 was a memorable one with all three of the games with late lead changes coming in the prime-time slots. Overall, we had 9 games with a comeback opportunity, and we’ll see if Colts-49ers can give us 10 in a week for the first time since Week 4.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Patriots at Ravens: Sunday’s Best

It was many weeks ago when I called my shot that Drake Maye would have his first 300-yard passing game in the NFL against Baltimore in Week 16. Then as the game was approaching this week, I had the Drake Maye MVP Parlay that hit with Stafford’s loss against Seattle starting it on Thursday, and I wrote how the Ravens have a history of letting young passers set career highs in passing yards against them recently.

Then right before the game, I made my pick:

This wasn’t an endorsement of Maye as much as it was I know how John Harbaugh’s Ravens play, and I know you can’t trust them in games like this, especially in 2025. Sure enough, you could see early on that Maye had big plays coming against this secondary. He just had to control his turnovers as he turned it over twice in scoring range early on.

But the Ravens lost Lamar Jackson in the first half to a back injury, putting Tyler Huntley under the microscope for the rest of the night in an important game. He did help lead two touchdown drives to give the Ravens a 24-13 lead with 12:50 left, but we’ve seen this movie before with Baltimore.

Maye answered with a great 37-yard touchdown pass to Kyle Williams to get over 300 yards, then the Ravens ignored using Derrick Henry on the ensuing drive and punted. Maye had a deep ball that should have been caught by Boutte, but he dropped it on the ground after he was interfered with on the play, and I can’t believe there wasn’t a flag there. Go figure, I lost a good parlay on this game because he didn’t get yards there.

That was a first-down play that led to some critical snaps later. On third down, Maye’s pass was nearly intercepted by Nate Wiggins, but then Maye threaded the needle on 4th-and-2 to Stefon Diggs for a big 21-yard completion. The defense doesn’t make you pay on a pick and you come back and finish the game-winning drive. That sounds very Brady-esque by Maye.

Two plays later, Rhamondre Stevenson finished the drive with a 21-yard touchdown run with 2:07 left. Maye’s defense needed to complete the comeback, and it did its job by forcing Zay Flowers to fumble two plays into the ensuing drive. Maye had a 16-yard keeper run to ice his first 4QC/GWD in the NFL, an 11-point comeback in the fourth, and that career-high line of 380 passing yards. That’s a memorable first comeback.

At 12-3, the Patriots can still think about 14-3 and a potential No. 1 seed if Denver loses again. I’m not convinced this game should make Maye the MVP since Baltimore just isn’t Baltimore anymore, but it keeps him firmly in the running with Stafford, who can still slip up in Atlanta next Monday night.

But this win should give Maye and the Patriots a lot of confidence that they can win this type of game where he had 57 of the team’s 70 action plays. That’s MVP quarterback-y stuff.

Steelers at Lions: It’s All Over Now, Baby Blue

This game finished 29-24, hitting the over (52.5), but that’s a miracle when you consider how each half started.

The Steelers took a 3-0 lead after the first quarter, scoring no more than 7 points in the opening quarter for the 67th game in a row including playoffs, the longest streak since WWII. They were able to hold the Lions to no points after facing a 1st-and-goal at the 4 by stopping a Jared Goff pass on 4th-and-3 from the 3, a sign of things to come.

But instead of Detroit taking a 10-3 lead into halftime, Kenneth Gainwell made a Catch of the Year candidate when he was laying down and caught a deep pass, getting up untouched and racing to the end zone to complete a 45-yard game-tying touchdown with 0:02 left in the half.

The Steelers ended up winning the third quarter by a 2-0 score, sacking Goff in the end zone for a safety after Darnell Washington had fumbled in the red zone. Then Jaylen Warren was able to rip off two 45-yard touchdown runs in the fourth quarter, the second giving the Steelers a 29-17 lead with 6:41 left.

But the Lions quickly got one touchdown, and similar to the Ireland game where the Steelers nearly blew a 17-point lead in quick fashion, they almost coughed this one up with poor clock management in the four-minute offense. They settled for a 37-yard field goal with 2:09 left, which should have been automatic for Chris Boswell, but he missed it off the right upright. Inexcusable for one of the game’s best.

Now 29-24, it sure looked like the Steelers were going to blow this one by giving up a late touchdown and they didn’t even have any timeouts left to answer. There was a game-saving DPI penalty on 4th-and-2 to keep the game alive, and sure enough, Goff had the Lions on a 1st-and-goal at the 1 with 25 seconds left.

But that’s when it got interesting and heavy on the officials. Amon-Ra St. Brown caught a 1-yard touchdown, but it was negated for a pick play called on Isaac TeSlaa. It looked like the right call as he was blocking more than 1 yard past the line, but it’s admittedly not something that always gets called. That was huge cause it backed the Lions up to their 11 with little time left, then a false start had them at the 16.

After some Goff incompletions, it came down to 4th-and-goal from the 9. A short pass to St. Brown was tackled quickly, but he was allowed to lateral the ball back to Goff, who dove into the end zone for what Lions fans thought was a walk-off touchdown in a 30-29 final.

After some record-long discussions about the play, it was determined to be offensive pass interference on Brown for pushing off on Jalen Ramsey, and that ends the game there. No replay of the down for an offensive penalty, and Goff’s touchdown dive simply doesn’t count. Game over, and when the ref said game over, I still wasn’t 100% sure what the final score was supposed to be.

But it looks like they got the calls right, and the Steelers prevailed 29-24, clinching their record 22nd-straight season with a non-losing record, moving past the 1965-85 Cowboys for good. They also move a step closer to winning the AFC North for the first time since 2020.

Meanwhile, Detroit has gone from 15-2 to 8-7 this year and needs to win out while the Packers need to lose out just for the Lions to return as a No. 7 seed. Crazy year for an offense that came into this one leading the league in scoring and having the fewest turnovers (8) of any offense despite losing coordinator Ben Johnson to the No. 1 Bears in the NFC North.

But even in this game, you could see some cracks in Dan Campbell’s offense as they’re missing Sam LaPorta, a tight end who could have been their target on those failed drives early and late in the game. They also just don’t have the line anymore to dominate on the ground. The running backs had 11 carries for 16 yards, which is crazy work against a Pittsburgh run defense that has allowed over 200 rushing yards to the Ravens and Bills recently. Did the return of rookie Derrick Harmon cause that big of a shift in run defense success? That’s hard to say.

This is also why these Steelers might actually be a little different this year with Aaron Rodgers playing his best ball right now, and the defense has rose to the occasion a few times in a game like this and when they turned the Colts (6) and Patriots (5) over 11 times combined in upset wins.

It doesn’t feel like Tomlin is ever leaving Pittsburgh until he wants to leave, but the Steelers have won 3-0 since “Fire Tomlin!” chants rained down at home against Buffalo. That could end up being the 5-4 rematch on wild card weekend too with Tomlin getting a chance to redeem himself and win his first playoff game since the 2016 season.

Sure, beating Buffalo in the wild card sounds crazy, but when has this 2025 NFL season ever made sense?

Granted, a long suspension for D.K. Metcalf after he punched at a fan in the crowd could be a huge setback here as Rodgers’ only reliable wideout. I’m not sure what the precedent is there, but I could see a 1-game suspension for that. I don’t think it should be more since he didn’t do more than the one punch/slap attempt. He didn’t go full Ron Artest in Detroit (Malice at the Palace). But that’ll be a story to keep an eye on this week as the Steelers need Metcalf for the playoff push.

Buccaneers at Panthers: Does Todd Bowles Survive This?

Man, if not for the Cardinals, the Buccaneers would be winless since Week 9’s bye week. That’s still pretty bad for a team that was 5-1 and has only gotten healthier at receiver and running back. But Baker Mayfield needed a big 40-yard pass to Emeka Egbuka just to break 100 passing yards late in the fourth quarter.

Then down 23-20 late, he was not on the same page with Mike Evans, who cut in while Baker threw the out, and it ended up as a game-ending interception that gives the Panthers the NFC South lead with two weeks to go. The Bucs are just 7-8 now.

I’m just waiting for something big to come out of this decline like finding out Mayfield tore something against the 49ers and tried to play injured, or something indecent has happened with the coaching staff and caused a rift between Todd Bowles and the coordinator. Just something to explain how this team can keep failing to execute after they were money early in the season under pressure.

As for Carolina, it’s a 12th game-winning drive for Bryce Young and his sixth this season. He didn’t have a huge game, but neither did his running game, and he had a timely 34-yard completion on the game-winning field goal drive.

The only positive for Tampa Bay is it still has the Week 18 rematch at home. That’s probably why the Bucs still have -170 odds to win the NFC South. But I don’t know how you can trust a team that’s been so poor for two months now.

Jaguars at Broncos: Mile High Can’t Touch Duuuuuval

I didn’t see a ton of this game on Sunday. But while I liked the Jaguars (+3.5) to cover, I still thought it’d be a very tight game won by Denver. Instead, it’s the first bad game the Broncos have played all year as their 11-game win streak started after losing on last-second field goals to the Colts and Chargers in September.

The Broncos sacked Trevor Lawrence five times, but once again he excelled with the receivers that have become his main guys under Liam Coen like Parker Washington and Jakobi Meyers. Brian Thomas Jr. only had 18 yards in this game, but that development has been the surprise of the season for the Jaguars, who are now 11-4.

Bo Nix threw for 352 yards, but he lost a fumble late in the third quarter when it was 31-17, and he threw a bad pick on 4th-and-2 when it was 34-20 in the fourth quarter. I saw people clowning Sean Payton, who I am openly not a big fan of over the years, for kicking the 21-yard field goal on 4th-and-3 on the previous drive when it was 34-17.

I think Payton made the right call as I believe you need to keep extending the game and not put your players in “convert this or the game is already over” situations. Keep the pressure on the other team instead, and the Broncos really got what they wanted. They made it a 14-point game, you always  needed the field goal anyway at some point down 17, and now you get the quick three-and-out and the ball back in a 34-20 game with 9:28 left.

But that’s when the fourth-down pick happened, and from there it was basically over even though Denver got it back with 4:14 and the same score. Just no fourth-quarter magic this week as Jacksonville played very well.

If you can win at Denver, you might be able to win anywhere in this season’s AFC. A certain 19-point lead against a certain long-necked backup quarterback is the only thing stopping the Jaguars from having an 8-game winning streak since the bye.

But the Denver streak is over and the AFC West is in jeopardy, let alone that No. 1 seed they seemed to be cruising to.

Bills at Browns: Want to See the Worst Sacks of the Season?

The highly ranked pass defenses of the Browns and Bills did not disappoint in this game. While both defenses would love to face a pass instead of a run, it was compounded by how well the Bills did on the ground early with James Cook ripping off a 44-yard touchdown run on the opening drive.

But with barely over a minute left in the half, Josh Allen took the worst sack of his career that also put his team’s season in jeopardy after he injured his ankle by running backwards from his own 23 to take a 22-yard sack back at his 1 to almost give up a safety. It looked so bad that it almost looked like Garrett paid Allen to do that to set him up for an easy sack, and the scorers agreed as they somehow gave Garrett half a sack on the play.

Garrett didn’t get a full sack, but the Bills only managed a 2-yard field goal drive in the whole second half. Allen was off on some throws, and sometimes his tight ends didn’t complete the catches as the passing game just never got it going.

Shedeur Sanders had some great scrambles in the game, but he also fell victim to bad, deep sacks with the game on the line. He lost 13 yards on a 4th-and-2 sack in a 23-20 game in the fourth quarter. Then after getting the ball back, he took another sack, then got called for intentional grounding to avoid another that brought up 3rd-and-32. After a deep incompletion, Sanders was stuck facing 4th-and-32 from his own 1 with 1:49 left.

There’s no man’s land, and then there’s whatever the fvck that was. With two timeouts left, you almost want to go for it. Three timeouts would make it easier to justify the punt. But Sanders had almost no room to operate in the end zone, and needing 32 yards, you really risk giving up a safety and possession there. You’re almost certain to fail barring a cheap foul, so punting is probably the best thing you could do in that impossible spot.

Allen finally put the game away with an 8-yard pass and QB sneak on 3rd-and-1. But that was a tough win for the Bills, who were a big 10.5-point road favorite. It continues the trend where Allen just doesn’t put up many yards (or points or both) on the road this year, and given the Patriots are close to winning the AFC East, it could be all road games for him to get to the Super Bowl. Not ideal.

But the Bills play great defense in the big spots and they now have seven defensive saves (stops when leading by one score in the fourth quarter) and no blown leads in 2025. Will be interesting to see how they fare against the Eagles next week, a team with more experience and better quarterback play (usually) than the Browns have.

Bengals at Dolphins: Free of Tua, Not Free of a Bad Defense

I give Mike McDaniel and Miami credit for doing the right thing, maybe the overdue thing, and benching Tua Tagovailoa, effectively ending his reign (of terror) with the Dolphins. Quinn Ewers did some solid things early with the running game doing great against a poor Cincinnati defense, but similar to last week in Pittsburgh, the game got completely away from the Dolphins in the third quarter.

Two turnovers and a fourth-down stop set up three short fields for touchdowns by Joe Burrow and the Bengals, who won 45-21. I’m sure that had Tua smirking from the bench, but this team has a better shot of dragging itself out of purgatory by moving on from him. Ewers probably won’t be the long-term answer, but at least they get a look at him in these final games.

Raiders at Texans: Hope for Ashton Jeanty

It didn’t take long for the Houston defense to make its presence felt by intercepting a poor throw from Geno Smith for a pick-six. But Houston’s offense was sputtering, and Ashton Jeanty showed that not even the league’s best defense can stop him from scoring touchdowns of 60 and 51 yards on a pass and a big run late in the fourth quarter.

That had the Texans pressing at home as a 14.5-point favorite to a terrible team that’s been shutout 31-0 twice this year. But I thought Pete Carroll’s team blew it in two spots here:

  • Down 16-14 in the fourth quarter, why are you punting on 4th-and-3 at the Houston 46? Your season is long over. Go for it. You have nothing to lose. The Texans ended up driving 88 yards for a long touchdown drive to make it a 23-14 game. Again, if the worst-case scenario (giving up a TD) happens, you at least would rather it happens quicker on a shorter field than for a long drive like that.
  • Then down 23-21, the Raiders had a great shot to force a 3-and-out and get the ball back right away for a game-winning field goal march, but the defense was penalized for pass interference on 3rd-and-20 from the Houston 7. Brutal. Stroud converted a few more first downs and ran out the final 5:19 to win 23-21.

So, I think this scare throws some cold water on the Houston run to the playoffs. But they are going to be a tough out for anyone they play. And they won’t have to face Jeanty in January. Maybe never if the Raiders don’t get their shit together.

Vikings at Giants: Rough Day at the Office

I knew I liked the under on Jaxson Dart’s passing props against a complex defense like Minnesota, but God damn. Dart finished the game and still finished just 7-of-13 passing for 33 yards with 5 sacks, a deflected pick, and 2 runs for 7 yards. For some reason, it took 17 snaps from scrimmage for the Giants before Dart threw an actual pass in this game.

J.J. McCarthy had a rough afternoon too that wasn’t always his fault as he had a tipped pick. He also got away with a pick-six after Abdul Carter lined up offsides. D’oh.

But McCarthy left another game injured, and Max Brosmer ended up converting a 3rd-and-17 with a great catch by Justin Jefferson to lead to a game-winning field goal in a 16-13 final. Dart had his chance to answer but was sacked on fourth down at midfield.

So, Brosmer has a game-winning drive in the NFL before Dart…

Falcons at Cardinals: More Desert Doom

Props to the Atlanta defense for doing probably the best job of anyone against Jacoby Brissett this year. They held him to 203 yards, had a game-sealing interception, only one touchdown pass, and they held Trey McBride to 27 yards in the 26-19 win.

Not even Atlanta’s historic brand of choking could help Brissett complete the late 10-point comeback. His 7-27 (.206) record at game-winning drive opportunities is the worst among active starters.

Chiefs at Titans: Going Out Sad

People will say the Chiefs (6-9) just tanked after getting eliminated from the playoffs last week, and maybe there’s some truth to that. But aside from adding Rashee Rice and Tyquan Thornton to this week’s injury report, it’s largely the same roster they’ve been struggling with the last few weeks minus Patrick Mahomes at quarterback.

In a 26-9 loss to Tennessee, one of the worst teams this year, the Chiefs averaged just 14.4 yards per drive and scored 9 points on 10 possessions. They may have lost Gardner Minshew to a torn ACL too, setting up Christmas night with Oladokun against the Denver defense. Sounds fun.

But quarterback injuries aside, the Chiefs ran through many of their same issues from the whole season: Bad penalties, bad special teams penalties like lining up offsides on a field goal on 4th-and-1, no running game, poor on third down, etc.

For as bad as the Chiefs were in an infamous 27-3 loss in Tennessee in 2021, a 12-5 team that earned the No. 1 seed, the Chiefs still averaged 37.5 yards per drive that day behind Mahomes. This? This is unwatchable, and it’s hard to believe we’re likely going to see the final games of Travis Kelce’s career play out this way.

Just going out sad.

Chargers at Cowboys: Receivers + Defense

One of my favorite underdog picks this week was the Chargers (+2.5) on the road in Dallas. Why? I knew Justin Herbert would roast that defense, and he sure did with 300 passing yards, no sacks, 3 total touchdowns, and he had a key 34-yard scramble on third down in the fourth quarter when the Chargers led 24-17. That led to a field goal and helped open up a big lead.

The Cowboys had some big strikes early for Dak Prescott’s offense, but after they were already eliminated on Saturday by Philadelphia’s win, they didn’t show up for the rest of the game, getting blanked in another second half in the 34-17 loss.

But it was so fitting to see George Pickens put up big numbers in a game that no longer mattered after he did so little in the previous two losses to the Lions and Vikings. Meanwhile, the Chargers came in with good receivers and a sound defense to take it to the Cowboys. Just better team building and coaching all around for the Chargers.

Jets at Saints: No Picks Again

With two games left against Drake Maye and Josh Allen, we really could see the 2025 Jets get through a full 17-game season without the defense getting a single interception. That’s unfathomable if you watched all the tipped balls getting picked off on Sunday. That kind of fluke play should be easy for the Jets to get on the board at least once in 15 games, but it’s never happened for Aaron Glenn’s unit.

Even though the Saints won 29-6, rookie Tyler Shough threw 49 passes for a season-high 308 yards as Kellen Moore was helping him get those reps in. The Saints are going to be one of the trendiest division winner picks in 2026, and I totally get it.

But the Jets are not a good litmus test for anything.

Eagles at Commanders: The NFC East Streak Is Over

A quick peek back to Saturday’s games, one of the wildest streaks in the 32-game era is over, and there’s a great chance we never see it again. The Eagles have repeated as NFC East champs, the first team to do so since the Eagles in 2001-04.

Every other division’s had at least two repeat winners in that time. The longest active drought is one year, and that might actually only go up to two years if the Seahawks can win the NFC West from the Rams, which they are favored to do now. The whole AFC is on the verge of a new winner this year. The NFC North is likely slipping from Detroit, and the Bucs are losing control of the NFC South. That just leaves Philly as the lone repeat with the Rams still alive too.

It was always the shared quarterback dominance (and quarterback injuries) that allowed this NFC East streak to go on from 2005-2024. One year it’d be Eli Manning, the next it’d be Donovan McNabb, then Tony Romo, or the random year by RG3 or Kirk Cousins.

This was supposed to be Jayden Daniels’ year after reaching the NFC Championship Game with the greatest rookie season ever. But the Commanders limped into Saturday’s game with 4 wins, then lost Marcus Mariota in the third quarter. That led to Josh Johnson playing, and after his pick, the Eagles had no problems piling on some touchdowns to cover the spread and end this division race.

Just another rough year for Washington, but hopefully 2024 won’t be an outlier for Daniels.

Packers at Bears: Shades of the 2014 NFC Championship Game

We had a few island games where a starting quarterback was knocked out with an injury. Jordan Love’s concussion was a brutal hit and his presence was missed, but I thought Malik Willis played well given the Packers were built to throw that night with only two tight ends active and Josh Jacobs wasn’t 100% healthy.

But the Bears really stole this one as they typically do when they’re having their successful years. They were slow to get their field goal in before the two-minute warning in a 10-point game, which was bad, but then Brandon Bostick Romeo Doubs flubbed the onside kick recovery, and the Bears were able to get it back at midfield with plenty of time left.

So, just like two weeks ago, Caleb Williams had the ball in a 7-point game against the Packers. This time, he got the touchdown pass on 4th down, and I would have swore Ben Johnson would go for 2 with 24 seconds left, but the presence of Willis in the game instead of Love likely made him settle for overtime, which isn’t such a bad deal these days.

Then when you win the coin toss, I think kicking first is an easy choice in this matchup. Make Malik Willis drive down the field for a touchdown using three conventional downs, and even that won’t end the game. Good luck to him doing it too, and I also like the prospects of Caleb getting all four downs to work the ball down the field as he can be erratic and needs the extra down.

But it didn’t even come down to that as the Packers, much like the Bears early in the game, botched their fourth-down snap at the Chicago 36 after bypassing on a long field goal on a windy night. That was really the right call, but they just blew the snap.

Then in the other play that looked just like the 2014 NFC Championship Game when the Packers lost in OT at Seattle, Williams uncorked a top throw of the whole season with his 46-yard touchdown to D.J. Moore in good coverage in the end zone to end the game.

That gives the 2025 Bears a record six wins in one season after trailing in the final 2:00 of the fourth quarter. Insane stuff, and yeah, it’s probably going to bite them in the ass next year, but that can wait until then. They’re in position for the No. 2 seed, and it’s possible we see round 3 of this matchup in a few weeks.

I’d be more than content with that.

Next week: Serves the NFL right for trying to steal Christmas from the NBA with a bad triple-header where 5/6 teams likely miss the playoffs. But the Saturday lineup is excellent with Texans-Chargers and Ravens-Packers like little playoff games. Just might be Tyler Huntley vs. Malik Willis in that second one. Sunday has upset potential with Seahawks at Panthers, Jags at Colts, and we’ll see if Myles Garrett can break sack record vs. Steelers. Eagles-Bills is the late window choice, and it’s not quite as big of a game as expected. Bears-49ers on SNF is solid even though both teams have clinched a playoff spot already. MNF (Rams-Falcons) is basically to see if Stafford can solidify MVP or falter badly and lose it against that pass rush.

2025 NFL Stat Oddity: Week 11

~ Scott ~ 1 Comment

I kept calling it the best Sunday of the 2025 NFL regular season. Did it live up to that hype? There were nine games with a comeback opportunity and eight game-winning drives, so that’s pretty good. I’m not sure I’d call any of the games classics or even in the game of the year competition, but it certainly was an eventful day and probably one that should reshape expectations for the rest of the season.

After predictions on Saturday night, I decided to look up how home teams have fared in the big games this season between teams who currently have a winning record. It hasn’t been as strong in recent years, and this year, the home team was 13-16 in such matchups.

Well, the home teams were 5-0 on Sunday, a clean sweep. I like to say the NFL is a league that’s about who you play and when you play them, but it looks like where you play still matters too. We’ll see if that holds up for the playoffs, which your guess is as good as mine if teams like the Chiefs, Lions, and Packers will still be in that tournament at this rate.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Chiefs at Broncos: Game of the Week

It’s 5:35 AM as I ask myself do I feel like ranting about the Chiefs for a long time, or just hurry up and get into a warm bed? I’m thinking the bed sounds better, because there’s nothing that happened here that we haven’t been seeing all year with the Chiefs, who are 5-5 and in danger of missing the playoffs. Forget the AFC West reign likely ending now; they could miss the playoffs altogether because of the way the teams ahead of them keep winning and the future schedules for each.

The Broncos played well, played with a better focus and flexibility, and Spags hasn’t shown any answers for Bo Nix in three games yet. Remember, they win that game in Arrowhead last year if the special teams of the Chiefs didn’t block a 35-yard field goal. Nix had all day on a huge 3rd-and-15 before the two-minute warning, and he threw a perfect deep ball to Franklin to set up the winning field goal late. He did all of that with almost no running game with J.K. Dobbins out.

Meanwhile, the Chiefs threw wildly deep in moments they didn’t have to, forgot to run the ball, and put the game on Mahomes while forgetting to actually get those speedy wideouts involved (Rice and Worthy) against a secondary that didn’t have Patrick Surtain II. It’s getting scary that a 36-year-old tight end (Kelce) remains the most (only?) reliable target in the passing game. They need to find more snaps for Tyquan Thornton, who again made an impact with a 61-yard bomb on a big 3rd-and-7 in the third quarter when the Chiefs pretended to have something figured out in this one.

That’s after a bunch of bad penalties early that kept tripping them up from scoring more points, then even after a great effort by Kelce on the go-ahead touchdown in the fourth quarter, Butker’s extra point was blocked when it should have been a 20-16 game. Maybe the defense can actually force a fourth-down stop had the Broncos needed to go for one late instead of kicking a game-tying field goal.

Then the Chiefs went three-and-out twice after the Kelce score, and they called 12 straight passes to end this game on offense. Lots of mistakes in there with the false start to begin a drive, a low snap on a third down, and another third-down sack. What happened to the scrambling Mahomes was doing in September? They needed that these last two games and he’s just not doing it for some reason.

Can’t keep “saving it for the playoffs” when it doesn’t look like there will be a playoffs if you keep losing these games. Again, the Chiefs gave up a 3rd-and-15 on the game-winning drive. That’s the fourth time this year the defense gave up a 3rd-and-10 conversion in the fourth quarter of a one-score game. They never did it more than three times in any season in 2018-24 (none in 2024).

It’s the first time the Chiefs have lost five-straight one-score games in the Mahomes era. There was always going to be some regression there after a record 17-0 streak before this year, but god damn, someone step up and make a play whether it’s on offense, defense, or special teams. It just seems like no one on this team wants to do it this year and that’s why they keep losing these games to teams who simply want it more and outplay them.

I don’t know how you fix this or if you can at this point. Might just be a lost year.

Seahawks at Rams: Played Again, Sam

No player disappointed more on Sunday than Seattle’s Sam Darnold, who was having such a great year. He was No. 1 in QBR, the Seahawks were killing teams, and he was almost perfect in the first half of these last few games. But man are the Rams his kryptonite, and if you’re a Seattle fan, you’re just worried if anything dressed as a “big game” is a signal for him to shit the bed.

He already coughed up a fumble to lose to the 49ers in Week 1, then marred his epic shootout performance against Baker and the Bucs with a late pick on a deflected pass. In this game, he was facing the pass rush that got him 9 times in January’s playoff loss with Minnesota.

But this time around, it was on Darnold. He threw 4 picks, two of which basically set up the Rams on short fields for touchdowns on a day where Matthew Stafford was nothing special at all. Seattle’s defense played hard, and it wasn’t like Darnold was under a heavy siege by the blitz all day, or if he had to keep trading touchdowns with Stafford. It just wasn’t that kind of game at all.

Even with all the mistakes, the Seahawks got the ball back late in a 21-19 game with a chance to go win it from the 1-yard line. Darnold did not mange the clock well, and if he was a little better, he should have been able to get a field goal attempt shorter than 61 yards. The kick by Jason Myers was nowhere close, and that’s ultimately how Seattle lost this first matchup with the Rams.

The Rams lead the NFC West now and have over 70% chance to win it. Darnold lost the QBR lead too, dropping to fourth. It’s a tough day when you feel like it’s been proven he’s just not a quarterback you can trust in these big games.

This win will give the Rams a lot of hype and praise this week as the team to beat, but we saw how good that did for the Packers at beating Pittsburgh or the Bills after beating the Chiefs. Have to keep stacking wins, and the Rams could have very well lost this game if Darnold wasn’t so brutal.

Lions at Eagles: Suddenly the Defense Is Unstoppable

I felt like I was watching the 10-7 game from Monday night again with the way the Eagles and Lions played this game. I thought Detroit would embrace the opportunity on the road against a contender like it did in Baltimore earlier this year, but I guess Jared Goff isn’t beating the allegations about being an indoor merchant. He was horrible in this game, posting the worst completion percentage of his career.

Guess calling plays against the Eagles is a lot tougher than Washington for Dan Campbell, who saw his offense turn it over on downs five times in a 6-drive span in the middle of the game.

That had to be disappointing for a shorthanded defense that did pretty well in keeping the Eagles down offensively again. But with the defense playing so elite again for the Eagles, it might not matter in the NFC. They can still win it all if they get the No. 1 seed. Much like Seattle, it’s a sobering loss for the Lions with Goff as they are in Year 5 of the Goff-Campbell experiment and running out of time to turn it into a Super Bowl.

If the playoffs started today, the Lions (6-4) would be out as the No. 8 seed.

Buccaneers at Bills: Josh Allen’s Wild Day

I think Josh Allen can dial back the awful two picks he had early in this game, but this is more or less what I think they need from him the rest of the season to get back on track. The Chiefs are struggling, might not even make the playoffs, and the Bills are looking at a wild card at best despite this beautiful schedule that gifted them another home game against a contender like the Bucs.

But the Bills stepped up after a lot of lead changes in this game and put away the Bucs in the fourth quarter. A facemask penalty on a Shakir tackle on third down was huge, leading to Allen’s sixth touchdown of the day.

But I think this is what the Bills need from Allen. Turnovers be damned, just go back to running the offense through him and let him sling it and run around. It helped that the matchup really dictated it as the Bucs are hard for James Cook to run against, but this was  a promising type of win for the Bills.

With the Rams up next, Tampa is spiraling a bit here without its full weapons and shaky secondary.

Bengals at Steelers: Unc Bowl II Ends on a Sad Note

The Unc Bowl II started strong with Joe Flacco and Aaron Rodgers throwing touchdowns, but it quickly devolved into a defensive slugfest with a Mason Rudolph second half after Rodgers injured his wrist. It could be pretty serious too.

Pittsburgh’s defense again made the big splash plays with Kyle Dugger taking back a Flacco pass for a huge pick-six, then a Noah Fant catch led to a fumble return touchdown as the Steelers blew this one wide open in an easy win.

But all eyes on Rodgers’ wrist and the news there. This game was also a sobering experience as it’s likely the last time I ever get to watch a live NFL game where both starting quarterbacks are older than I am.

Chargers at Jaguars: Pure Domination

I learned my lesson the hard way again. You just can’t trust the Chargers against the Jaguars as that’s a third embarrassing loss in the Justin Herbert vs. Trevor Lawrence era. Lawrence was nothing special here, but at least he was part of the game. Herbert threw for 81 yards and left in the fourth quarter with the score out of hand.

Very lifeless game by the Chargers, who are lucky the Chiefs lost again.

Panthers at Falcons: The Bryce Young Show

Now where has this Bryce Young been? He has one game all year with 200 passing yards, then he throws for 448 yards in maybe the best game of his NFL career against an Atlanta pass defense that has been getting a lot of praise for its sacks and keeping the yardage down this year. Make it make sense as Young even did this after getting injured early in the game.

He still led a 14-point comeback while Michael Penix Jr. (DOOM) left the game injured after a great start. Kirk Cousins at least got a game-tying field goal drive to force overtime, but he couldn’t move the offense once he got there. The Panthers were able to get the game-winning field goal and are 6-5 and very much alive for the NFC South with Tampa’s slide.

Falconing at a high degree here.

Ravens at Browns: That’s Why Sander Was a 5th-Round Pick and QB3

It’s funny how you can look at a list of inactives and think Justice Hill being out isn’t a huge deal for Baltimore. But it really was. Hill is a good receiving back, and his presence was missed when backup Keaton Mitchell had a pass go off his hands and into the Browns for a pick-six. Lamar Jackson also had another pass tipped at the line that was picked, he didn’t throw a touchdown to end his 30-game streak, and he took 4 sacks by Myles Garrett alone as Cleveland pushed for an upset bid.

But the Browns didn’t get it because Dillon Gabriel was knocked out for a concussion, and rookie Shedeur Sanders showed he’s not ready and why he slid in the draft with a pretty horrible performance, going 4-of-16 and getting sacked a few times with a bad pick.

But the Ravens still needed a very cool Mark Andrews trick play on the Tush Push to score a 35-yard touchdown run to get the game-winning drive in the books before Sanders’ failed answer drive.

I don’t think Sanders is the solution to Cleveland’s many woes.

49ers at Cardinals: Jacoby’s Record-Setting Day in Defeat

What the fvck are the Cardinals even doing these days? They went from losing very close games on the final play every week to getting blown out before halftime but not before Jacoby Brissett piles up huge passing numbers in a multi-score loss.

The 49ers feasted on short fields and big plays in Brock Purdy’s return game, but the weird story was Brissett tying the NFL record with 47 pass completions on 57 attempts for 452 yards. He also managed to not take a single sack. You’ll see people say he broke the record for completions in a game, which is true for the regular season. But Ben Roethlisberger completed 47 passes in a 2020 playoff loss to the Browns, so he actually tied the record that’s been done before.

It’s amusing that this is done without Kyler Murray or Marvin Harrison Jr. active because of injuries, but it’s not like it’s helping Arizona win anything.

Bears at Vikings: Ben Johnson and Kevin O’Connell Split Close Series

If I looked at the best coaching records among actives in 4QC/GWD opportunities, Ben Johnson (5-2) and Kevin O’Connell (17-16) are near the top. KOC’s Vikings got the best of Johnson’s Bears in his debut in Week 1, and it looked like it might happen again after J.J. McCarthy shook off a pretty horrible 57 minutes before leading a nice go-ahead touchdown drive.

But damn that new kickoff rule. The Bears pulled off a 56-yard kick return, and just like that in a 17-16 game, they were at the Minnesota 40. Three fairly conservative runs later, the Bears were able to kick a 48-yard field goal to win the game, which Cairo Santos did for them to get to 7-3.

Tough way to lose for the Vikings. I guess McCarthy missed that LOAT course at Michigan on how to will your opponent to miss the clutch field goal. Or they just don’t offer that in 2025 like they used to.

Packers at Giants: Winston Special

I had to wait until the final 40 seconds before the J&J Pick Parade (J.J. McCarthy and Jameis Winston to both throw interceptions) hit this Sunday. Winston almost had another upset in his first start for the Giants as the Packers have just struggled all year despite large spreads. Jordan Love was out of the lineup momentarily in this one for an injury but returned and did some positive things, including a game-winning drive without Josh Jacobs.

Then the defense finally put it away with a pick of Winston with 36 seconds left. Since the Giants, in their first game with interim coach Mike Kafka, had all three timeouts, they actually generated another drive with just 10 seconds left. That too ended with a Winston turnover on a Micah Parsons strip-sack, fittingly.

Big save by the Packers, who lost to Tommy DeVito and the Giants two years ago. Not happening to Jameis this year.

Texans at Titans: Some Modest Improvement

Maybe my best pick this week was for the Titans (+5.5) to cover and still lose to Houston. It was a 6-0 game going into the fourth quarter the last time they met before short fields helped Houston blow it open 26-0. Throw in a short week, interim coach, and you’d hope Tennessee would clean some things up and play better.

That happened, and props to Cam Ward for leading a 95-yard game-tying touchdown drive late. But he learned the hard way about the help you get from the new kickoff rules (starting at your 35 from a touchback) and being let down by your defense, which let Davis Mills convert a 3rd-and-16 to Nico Collins to eventually get a 35-yard field goal with no time left in a 16-13 final.

Commanders vs. Dolphins: Thank You, Mike McDaniel

The NFL went to Madrid, Spain and gave the audience three goal-line stands, and I especially liked the one where the Commanders ran the ball with three different backs on three plays in a row and none could score before Marcus Mariota missed the fourth-down throw.

But I want to thank Mike McDaniel for I believe becoming the first coach in this new overtime system to win the coin toss and elect to go on defense first. I think that’s the ideal strategy, and it’s even stronger in a 13-13 game where you’re facing Marcus Mariota. You’re not afraid of him leading a long touchdown drive.

Sure enough, he was picked on the first play and that set up the Dolphins for an easy game-winning drive that was just 3 handoffs for 22 yards before a 29-yard field goal to win in 16-13.

Next week: Thursday night isn’t bad (Bills-Texans) if we get C.J. Stroud (concussion) back for it. On Sunday, the Colts’ No. 1 offense and Lou Anarumo-led offense can drop the Chiefs to 5-6 and possibly a deathblow to their playoff chances this year in a big one. Doesn’t sound promising for Aaron Rodgers to face the Bears one more time in Chicago in a game both teams need. Bucs at Rams isn’t bad for SNF but McVay usually does well against that team. Monday night is Carolina at 49ers, a game that is surprisingly not a joke on paper but not overly exciting either.

2025 NFL Stat Oddity: Week 6

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

I don’t think Week 6 changes the 2025 NFL narrative too much, though we’ll see what the injury news is on Puka Nacua. But the 49ers are so banged up that it may not matter as much as the Seahawks and Rams won’t meet until November 16.

The Chiefs are still the class of the AFC West. The Jets and Dolphins still suck. The Cowboys still can’t play defense. The AFC North, save for Pittsburgh, still can’t win. The Colts are still scoring efficiently as Daniel Jones, Baker Mayfield, and Sam Darnold keep slinging it. The Packers still can’t cover the spread against Joe Flacco.

The change may be coming in the NFC East as the Eagles just look offensively lost, which may not come as a surprise when you see how Spencer Rattler is competing against superior teams in Kellen Moore’s offense.

Coaching matters. Just ask UCLA and Penn State.

After last week’s brutal picks had me riding a 4-11 ML streak going into yesterday, I rebounded nicely with 11-1 SU and 7-4 ATS on Sunday. There were only seven games with a comeback opportunity with a good MNF doubleheader still to come.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Lions at Chiefs: Look Who’s Still the Team to Beat

Ever since the second half of Week 3 against the Giants, the Chiefs have played offense at an elite level that you can put up there with anything they did in 2018-24. If teams wanted to humble this team, they needed to do it now when Rashee Rice was suspended these first six games.

Instead, you’re getting MVP-caliber play from Mahomes, who trusts his offensive line and receivers again, and the defense is feeding off of that as the Chiefs are winning games by two touchdowns or more this year instead of relying on one-score grinds.

Of course, the Chiefs can’t play a game in prime time without people wanting to turn it into an officiating controversy. The most notable thing about the officiating in Sunday night’s game was the lack of it.

After 13 penalties for 109 yards in Jacksonville, the Chiefs had zero accepted penalties in this game. Zero. You might say that sounds fishy, but after such an undisciplined performance on Monday, it’s safe to say they made it a point of emphasis in a very important game to not fall to 2-4.

There have also been 91 instances since 1970 of an NFL team having 0 penalties, so while it is very uncommon, it’s not unprecedented. The Lions only had four penalties in the game, so the refs were letting them play for the most part.

In fact, it’s easy to recall all 4 accepted penalties in the game on Detroit:

  • The first was the illegal motion on Jared Goff’s touchdown reception on the opening drive. The dynamics of how that was called appeared a little off, but the play wasn’t officially reviewed, and they got it right.
  • That led to a delay of game as the Lions were frustrated having to settle for a field goal.
  • The third penalty was DPI after Rock Ya-Sin grabbed Travis Kelce on the collar on a big 3rd-and-10 in the second quarter.
  • The fourth penalty was roughing the passer on Aidan Hutchinson for a clear late hit.

Early on, the Lions were hurting themselves with mistakes like the Goff illegal motion, Amon-Ra St. Brown’s drop, and a bad drive to end the half. But in the second half, the defense was legitimately stopping the No. 1 scoring offense, containing the runs that worked early, and limiting YAC for St. Brown and company. Detroit’s only score of the half was a brilliant catch by Sam LaPorta for a touchdown.

Meanwhile, the Chiefs are going to be hard to beat if they’re scoring 30 points on 7 drives like they did here. Andy Reid seemed to wise up on some 4th-down punts this year by going for it a few times against an elite scoring machine like Detroit, which helped.

Mahomes played another very sharp game, and while the Lions were down multiple corners, he largely attacked their linebackers in coverage underneath. Tyquan Thonrton, their new deep threat, didn’t even have a target as the Chiefs mostly avoided playing 3-4 WR sets, keeping Detroit in base defense. That’s a nice little wrinkle you wouldn’t expect with the Lions down corners.

The Chiefs were also without left tackle Justin Simmons, who didn’t make the trip for personal reasons. But they paid Jaylon Moore good money to ride the bench, so he stepped in admirably at left tackle. Only glaring mistake was a late sack he gave up, but the game was in hand by then.

I think Goff faded after a good start, and Dan Campbell made one of his dumbest coaching calls ever on the final drive. Yes, they needed 2 touchdowns with an onside kick recovery, so it was pure miracle territory. But how do you get a 2nd-and-1 with 2:14 left and throw three incomplete passes? I can see doing it once, but that close to the 2-minute warning where you know the clock will stop, just run the god damn ball, get your yard, and start with a new set of downs with 2:00 left. That was coaching malpractice on Campbell’s part.

And yes, I’m extra pissed since I lost out on $270 as a parlay needed just 5 more yards from St. Brown. Just horrible execution from Detroit on that last drive.

But the Chiefs get to 3-3 without Rice and after facing the toughest part of their schedule. They still have a lot of playoff-caliber opponents left on the schedule, but the first six games were always the toughest with the Chargers, Eagles, Ravens, Lions, and no Rice for any of them.

If you look around the league at the way no one is really standing out – Broncos and Chargers barely squeaked by the awful Jets and Dolphins – in either conference, then there’s no reason not to think the Chiefs are still the team to beat in January.

If the defense can step up and hold a team like Detroit to 17 points with the offense playing this efficiently even before Rice is back, then good luck to the rest of the league from stopping another Super Bowl berth.

Only downside is Harrison Butker continues to suck, and the Chiefs still haven’t won a one-score game this season. But that’ll come eventually.

The Chiefs are still the Chiefs.

49ers at Buccaneers: Infirmary Bowl

I know there’s no such thing as a fully-healthy team in the NFL in Week 6, but JFC, these teams could have at least a little better injury luck than this. The Buccaneers didn’t have their top two wideouts (Mike Evans and Chris Godwin), starting running back (Bucky Irving), and rookie sensation Emeka Egbuka left the game early with a hamstring injury.

The 49ers were still without Brock Purdy, Brandon Aiyuk, Ricky Pearsall, George Kittle, and Nick Bosa. They lost All-Pro linebacker Fred Warner for the season in this game with a dislocated ankle, which his terrible to see as I was just saying how impressive he was on the ManningCast. Hate to see a defense that’s now without its two best players.

In the end, the Bucs handled their injuries better as they have Baker Mayfield while the 49ers have Mac Jones. Sure, Jones has played better this year under Kyle Shanahan even without a full arsenal of weapons. But his first pass of the day should have been a pick-six if the defender could ever get up instead of falling over three times. That led to a 12-yard touchdown drive for the Bucs, who didn’t trail in the final 35 minutes.

Tampa also has the deepest receiving room in the NFL. I never even heard of Kameron Johnson, who had one target in his career before Sunday and no catches in the NFL, but there he was catching a 34-yard touchdown. Then after Baker Mayfield made one of his classic scrambles to convert a 3rd-and-14, a 7th-round rookie named Tez Johnson made a great fingertips catch for a 45-yard touchdown to give the Bucs a 27-19 lead going into the fourth quarter.

These teams were both 4-1 in close games, and this one would also go to the fourth quarter with a one-score deficit. It just didn’t end as dramatically because the 49ers couldn’t come close to scoring the game-tying touchdown. Lavonte David took down Jones on a big 3rd-and-11 sack.

Then after a stopped QB sneak and false start, Jones was picked on a 4th-and-5 with 5:43 left. The Bucs turned that into a 45-yard field goal after Chase McLaughlin redeemed himself for an earlier miss in the quarter. Down 30-19, the 49ers went 4-and-out to end this one.

Interesting to see where these teams go from here. It feels like the injuries are piling up for the 49ers and they won’t be able to recover for a Super Bowl run. But it also feels like Tampa has used up a lot of its late-game magic already for one season and will need to play better once it could ever get its wide receivers back healthy.

But the injuries have been a hell of a thing to watch with these teams.

Rams at Ravens: At What Point Do You Panic?

If I was a fan of the Baltimore Ravens (1-5), I think this game would have pissed me off more than the last few when they got their asses handed to them. They teased us on Sunday that they could win this game against the Rams, who again were underachieving in a game.

The defense actually showed up for Baltimore this week. Sure, it helps when Puka Nacua gets injured and the Rams can’t make simple field goals, but they held them to 3.2 YPC and Stafford only passed for 181 yards with an early strip-sack fumble.

They got 122 rushing yards from Derrick Henry, who was more of the focal point as he needed to be in Lamar Jackson’s absence. But Zay Flowers was a double agent as many of his targets and touches led to disasters for the Ravens, including a pick, an incomplete 4th-and-3 pass, and two fumbles.

This game was lost in that 7:00 middle between the halves. The Tush Push with Mark Andrews didn’t work twice, so the Ravens ran Henry on 4th-and-goal at the 1 and were stuffed, keeping the score tied at 3. Then after the Rams got a touchdown, Flowers fumbled a completion, setting up the Rams for a 21-yard touchdown drive and 17-3 lead. No more points were scored in the final 25 minutes, which is hard to believe.

Then on a first down nearing the red zone, the Ravens had another fumble that gets charged to Cooper Rush, but it was really on Flowers again for not securing the ball that was meant to be his run.

It was curious timing, but the Ravens benched Rush on the next drive for Tyler Huntley, who has experience in this system and more mobility to do more Lamar-like things. Granted, you could argue Rush never should have been in Baltimore as he doesn’t fit their normal offense like Huntley or other backups they’ve had can. So, that was always a weird choice to go with him as Lamar’s main backup.

Just as it was weird for Huntley to take over when he did after Flowers screwed up again. But it still didn’t result in any more points. Two long drives from Huntley just ended in the Ravens turning it over on downs in their latest loss.

Few teams have ever needed a bye week more than Baltimore, and Jackson should be back. They finally have fallen behind the Steelers for the AFC North odds, but it’s probably closer than you think. Sure, they have two head-to-head meetings left, but the Ravens haven’t swept Pittsburgh since 2019, and they have been swept by the Steelers multiple times since.

It’s not looking good for Baltimore fans as this team is finding ways to screw up games long before January this year.

Seahawks at Jaguars: When Two Receivers Don’t Beat One

I picked Seattle (-1.5) to win this game on the road because I thought the Jaguars would be a bit flat after Monday night’s emotional win over Kansas City, and that would negate the early body clock/travel aspect for the Seahawks. I also just think Sam Darnold is playing better football than Trevor Lawrence, and Mike Macdonald’s defensive system is more sustainable than the Jaguars relying on takeaways.

That basically played out here, but one thing I got wrong so far about these teams this year is their wide receiver play. I thought with Liam Coen coming to Jacksonville, he could get Lawrence playing well with his wide receiver duo of Brian Thomas Jr. and Travis Hunter. Well, Thomas only scored his first touchdown catch on Sunday, and Hunter had 15 yards on 4 catches.

Meanwhile, I thought Jaxon Smith-Njigba was a possession receiver, someone who would average about 11 YPC and be a downgrade for Darnold as his WR1 after he played with Justin Jefferson last year in Minnesota, or how he could have had DK Metcalf instead in this role. But JSN has been incredible as a one-man show at times as he had 162 yards in this game and a touchdown.

However, in such a low-scoring game (20-12), the Jaguars certainly had their chances. But Thomas had a huge drop on third down with 9:17 left when the Jaguars trailed 20-12. The Jaguars never really got a better look at a score than that play after their last two drives failed and ended in punts.

After Lawrence’s 7th sack brought up 4th-and-18 at their own 28, they had no choice but to punt in an 8-point game with 3:00 left. But one deep ball from Darnold to Barner for 61 yards flipped field position and basically should have ended the game as you knew Seattle could take an 11-point lead. They eventually did, but a defensive holding penalty on the field goal (rarely see that) ended the game as the Seahawks just ran the clock out with the automatic first down.

Good win for the Seahawks while the Jaguars (4-2) are still a work in progress under Coen.

Chargers at Dolphins: Mike McDaniel About to Do ALL the Cocaine

The Miami defense is a great way for a struggling offense like the Chargers to get on track. You just didn’t expect the LA defense to blow a 26-13 lead in the fourth quarter, because that’s supposed to be the silliness that Jim Harbaugh eliminates for the Chargers.

But it happened after Tua found Darren Waller wide open for a 7-yard touchdown to take a 27-26 lead with 0:46 left. Fortunately, the Chargers had a good kick return and timeout to answer it, and Justin Herbert made a contender for the play of the year to Ladd McConkey, who did his part with the YAC after Herbert’s great display of strength to avoid the sack that would have been crippling:

That made the field goal possible, and Cameron Dicker made it from 33 yards out for the 29-27 win. That’s the third blown lead for the Dolphins this season.

Probably too early to call it a season saver for the Chargers (4-2), but they have some tough games coming up with the Colts and Vikings (maybe/maybe not), so they couldn’t afford to lose a third straight to a team like the Dolphins.

Cardinals at Colts: QB Controversy in Arizona?

Maybe being back in Indy with that awful sunshine spotting the field helped him, but Jacoby Brissett seemed pretty comfortable for a guy making his first start with Arizona for an injured Kyler Murray. Brissett threw for 320 yards, 2 touchdowns, and the Cardinals had a 27-24 lead in the fourth quarter.

That’s the kind of road game you almost never see Murray have, especially post-ACL. But it wasn’t enough as the Colts still scored enough in the end behind Daniel Jones and Jonathan Taylor. The Colts did have a few more stops than usual this week, but they still scored on their first three second-half possessions, including Taylor’s game-winning touchdown run with 4:32 left.

One thing about Brissett is he was always dreadful at game-winning drives (7-23, .233), and this one didn’t work either. It did get to the Indy 9, but the defense stopped Brissett on three straight plays.

A solid win for the Colts. You can’t compare beating the Cardinals to facing the pressure of a Buffalo or Kansas City in January, which Jones will have to step up to if he wants to get to the Super Bowl. But every win like this helps build some confidence that they can execute in those situations.

Browns at Steelers: Same Old Steelers (Or Not?)

Same Old Steelers could refer to beating Cleveland at home in the regular season as they have every year since 2003. It could also refer to beating up on a random rookie quarterback as they sacked Dillon Gabriel six times and held him to 7.6 yards per completion and 9 points.

But maybe the real test of Same Old Steelers is to see if they follow this game up with a stinker in Cincinnati this Thursday night when they have a chance to open up a 5-1 record in this AFC North race that has gotten incredibly one-sided these last two weeks. Since Pittsburgh’s bye last week, the rest of the AFC North is 0-6.

As for this game, I think Aaron Rodgers missed a few throws you’d expect him to make to big, open targets while still throwing an incredible touchdown to Heyward. The big number for Rodgers was “0” in the sacks department as Myles Garrett and company came up empty while the Steelers feasted on the rookie. There’s your main difference in this game.

Bengals at Packers: I Guess Green Bay Can’t Beat Joe Flacco AND the Spread This Year

The rest of the 2025 NFL season should just be Joe Flacco hopping from team to team to start against the Green Bay Packers. See if they can ever make a double-digit lead hold up against him.

Flacco was about as ineffective early as you’d expect from someone who was traded to the team on Tuesday and hasn’t played for this staff before. But the Packers still couldn’t blow the game wide open because of a bad Jordan Love interception on the opening drive. Meanwhile, Flacco threw 45 passes with zero picks and only one sack behind that line. I’m shocked at that.

The Bengals were also in this game in the second half. They scored on three straight possessions, and it would have been four if not for a missed 56-yard field goal in the 27-18 final. But they put the pressure on Green Bay to score three times in a row too to maintain that two-possession lead.

So, I’d say good on Flacco to make the team competitive and not sink the Bengals the way Browning did last week. Do I think it’s a season-saving move? No, I still don’t. But maybe we are having too high expectations on the Packers after those first two weeks. The defense isn’t that otherworldly if they can’t do better than this against Flacco on a short week to learn his new offense.

Patriots at Saints: Making It Look Big Easy

Not much to say here other than I respect the job Kellen Moore is doing with the Saints for another competitive effort where they came up a little short against a better team. Drake Maye had another efficient game, and some of his best throws were wiped out by penalties too.

But maybe the Patriots are back when they’re creating fumbles at midfield in one-score games in the fourth quarter. This time it was TE Juwan Johnson coughing up the ball on a potential go-ahead drive.

Cowboys at Panthers: Rico Dowdle Revenge Game Indeed

I never had any strong opinions about whether the Cowboys should have kept RB Rico Dowdle for 2025. He did fine last year in a lost cause season for Dallas. He’s been better than post-injury Javonte Williams the last few years. But on Sunday, he sure made his point in one of the ultimate revenge games as Dowdle totaled 239 yards from scrimmage and scored a long touchdown catch to help the Panthers upset Dallas 30-27.

Dak Prescott played a great game with zero help from the run (17 carries for 32 yards). But his last two drives did not deliver, and when you’re trying to win some games and get in the MVP race, you have to do better than misfiring in the red zone multiple times and then throwing screens to go backwards. Seriously, Dak went 3-of-3 for minus-8 yards on his last possession – three failed completions.

But the defense must do better than letting the Panthers take off the final 6:07 on the clock to kick a game-winning field goal. They had a chance to go three-and-out right away on defense, but the Cowboys were penalized for defensive pass interference to extend the drive. Hunter Renfrow had a clutch catch on 4th-and-4, a ballsy call by Dave Canales to go for it with 2:31 left.

That put the Cowboys in a bind, and the Panthers ran the clock down to kick a 33-yard field goal. I’m still not sure if the Panthers (3-3) are any good since I’m not even sure they’ve played a team yet that is going to the playoffs this season. But I do know that Dallas defense is terrible, and that’s the predicament they put themselves in with the Parsons trade.

But what a game and moment for Dowdle. This is why you don’t necessarily need to pay someone like Chuba Hubbard when backs come and go all the time. At least, they do for most teams. The Cowboys haven’t done the best job replacing Tony Pollard.

Titans at Raiders: Trying to Set a Strip-Sack Record

I swear every time RedZone cut to this game some quarterback was getting strip-sacked or being reviewed for a strip-sack. In the end, Cam Ward fumbled twice to go with a pick. I thought Geno Smith would be sharper than this, but maybe Brock Bowers means more to this passing game than expected.

One of those Ward strip-sacks set up a 2-yard touchdown drive for the Raiders, so this was easy street for Vegas to get back in the win column. The Titans are quite arguably worse this season than last year with Will Levis.

Jets vs. Broncos: London Snooze

It was almost 8:00 AM ET on Sunday when I was still awake, trying to fall asleep. So, when my alarm went off at 11:05 and I saw the halftime score of this shit game in London, I hit the snooze for another 45 minutes. Caught most of the fourth quarter and couldn’t believe that Sean Payton was about to blow a game to this team after a safety provided a little 11-10 edge for the Jets.

But sure enough, that pass rush saved the day for Denver after the offense managed a go-ahead field goal drive and 13-11 lead. More accurately, Justin Fields’ terrible ability to get rid of the ball in a timely manner did him in as he never got the passing game going, and he took 9 sacks. I don’ t think the last 3 were necessarily his fault as they engulfed him quickly, but he never had an answer for how to attack a defense with talent at each level.

The Jets finished with -10 net passing yards, which is a great example of why you have to account for sack yardage. Do you know how stupid it would sound to say Fields accounted for 92% of his team’s yards in this game if we just ignored the sacks were charged to him?

Nine sacks, nine completions, and 2-15 on third down. Pathetic output as the Jets were held to 82 total yards. Fields already had that game against Buffalo where he had 3 completions while playing into the fourth quarter. This was actually worse.

I don’t know how you can continue playing him at quarterback if you’re Aaron Glenn, who did technically blow his third fourth-quarter lead in six games this season. The only good news is the Jets finally got a takeaway on the third play of the game, a Troy Franklin fumble recovery.

However, that just further shows how pathetic Fields was. Of the 11 points scored by the Jets, 2 were on a safety, 3 were on a 3-yard drive set up by the fumble, and 3 more were set up on a 1-yard drive after a 72-yard kick return. Even their only legitimate scoring drive started at their own 43 after a good kick return to start the second half.

Let’s stop pretending Fields can do this job. Maybe if he sits for years like Geno Smith, he can make it somewhere else down the road, but it’s not happening with the Jets.

Next week: Steelers-Bengals on TNF sounds like a classic upset spot for Tomlin vs. Flacco. Rams-Jaguars is the best Sunday morning international game yet. Maybe I’ll get up a little earlier for that. Eagles-Vikings could be interesting as I’d actually like to see it be a Carson Wentz Revenge Game. Not sure we’ll get that though. Giants-Denver is suddenly more interesting with the run-based offense the Giants have now with their rookies.

Colts-Chargers sounds fun. Commanders-Cowboys could be a shootout. Falcons-49ers is a bold choice for SNF. But MNF is really where it’s at with Lions-Bucs and Seahawks-Texans, and they’re played in different windows to boot, which is nice. I wish tonight was set up that way.

NFL 2025 Week 6 Predictions: “Who’s Even a Real Favorite Anymore?” Edition

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

Now into Week 6 of the 2025 NFL season, I’m not sure Jaguars-Seahawks isn’t any less of a Super Bowl LX preview than Rams-Ravens or Lions-Chiefs on Sunday night could be. If you think you know where this is all headed this season, good luck to you, because I think this season is headed for that 2002 or 2021 type of randomness where all teams struggle to win more than 12 games. Maybe 13-4 at best given the 17th game.

Just look at what’s been happening in prime time the last week. Sure, we can chalk some of Rams-49ers and Eagles-Giants up to division familiarity. But the way the Chiefs blew that game in Jacksonville, or the Bills playing one of their worst games in years against the Patriots?

All I know is I’ve never felt less confident in the 2025 Eagles, a team I didn’t pick for the Super Bowl in February, to get back there in the NFC bracket. It will apparently forever piss me off that the 2024 Eagles won the NFC-CG and SB by such large margins as this team has rarely been able to dominate teams going back to 2023. Remember, they almost lost last year to the Browns, Jaguars, and Panthers at home. They half-assed their way to 4-0 this year before losing the last two weeks.

It’s a tough league, but this is looking like one of those seasons where you just can’t trust anybody. It wouldn’t shock me one bit if the Jets (+7) win their first game against Denver, if the Patriots flop in New Orleans, and if the Rams blow another game they should win in Baltimore.

That’s where things are in 2025.

This Week’s Articles

2025 NFL Quarterback Rankings Week 6: The Mayfield-Darnold Passing Clinic and Every Great AFC Quarterback’s Team Takes a Loss
Scott’s Seven NFL Picks: Week 6

Click the Week 6 picks above for a MNF parlay, and a detailed preview on Chiefs vs. Lions SNF.

NFL Week 6 Predictions

Another Thursday night stunner in the books. I’m 4-11 SU going back to last week. Need to get on track.

Yeah, I hedged on spread vs. ML for the Jets, Ravens, Bengals, and Bears.

Steelers losing at home to a rookie QB wouldn’t shock me.

I like the Chargers but the OT situation is getting dicey.

Can Dallas lose in Carolina? Absolutely, but I just don’t think the Panthers are any good.

I think Geno Smith bounces back with a good game and win for the Raiders. He better, or they might need to switch to Kenny Pickett.

My gut on the Chiefs was if they won in Jacksonville, I was picking Detroit in this game. But since they lost that one, I think they win this one even if it’s supposed to be a harder opponent. The Lions have a lot of injuries in the secondary and I think the Chiefs can at least contain the running game enough and not give Goff short fields all night like we’ve seen the Ohio teams hand Detroit the last two weeks.

2024 NFL Stat Oddity: Divisional Round

~ Scott ~ 1 Comment

After a lackluster wild card round, the NFL’s divisional round delivered with the Chiefs inching closer to the three-peat, the Commanders pulling off an all-time upset in Detroit, a quality snow game in Philadelphia, and the most Baltimore ending possible in Buffalo.

I couldn’t personally get a parlay to hit, but at least my tight ends parlay (+539) on 365Scores was correct, and I had some other good picks like Travis Kelce having another 70-yard game in the postseason, Amon-Ra St. Brown going over 90 yards, and Terry McLaurin scoring a touchdown.

At least I was right that Ravens-Bills would not be a great quarterback duel, and it would come down to those things like fumble recoveries and avoiding big drops, which the Ravens of course failed to do again.

I’ll try to limit officiating talk here because I’d prefer to do something more in depth on that later this week. Plus, it’s just really annoying to harp on that for every game when we know the officiating is bad. None of these games were directly decided by the refs.

Save that kind of referee talk for Championship Sunday from the 2018 season (IYKYK)

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Ravens at Bills: Baltimore Blunders Strike Again

I’ll be curious to watch the season finale of Hard Knocks this week and see how John Harbaugh reacts to the latest playoff loss for his Ravens. This one was different, and yet at the same time, it was very much on brand for Baltimore throughout his tenure. I’m not sure any other recent franchise has a long list of blunders like this in close playoff losses:

https://twitter.com/ScottKacsmar/status/1881204200320716801

Some of those games weren’t that close (2009 Colts, 2019 Titans), but many were, and many of these plays can probably be visualized in your head by their brief mention if you’ve followed the NFL closely for years.

I’ve pounded the table for the “Same Old Steelers, let’s fire Mike Tomlin” crusade for years now in Pittsburgh, which also loses playoff games in excruciatingly similar ways year after year. But while Harbaugh can say the same of his team, I simply don’t see it the same way that he’s got to go if they’re ever going to change.

At some point, the play is out of the coach’s hands, and players have to make the plays. Catch the ball, protect the ball, make the kick. Hold onto the fucking ball, as Lamar Jackson pointed out after the game, probably the most frustrating loss of his career after he had his best season in 2024.

https://twitter.com/big_business_/status/1881180079071601140

https://twitter.com/big_business_/status/1881180079071601140

I can already see the legacy talks for Lamar won’t be kind after this game even though it was clearly his best performance in a playoff loss. If he does indeed have a third MVP win this year, good luck ever getting nominated for a fourth. People are not going to take his regular seasons seriously until he puts together a great playoff run.

Maybe that’s fair too. But what’s not fair is to lump this 27-25 loss in Buffalo in with the past Baltimore playoff losses for Lamar.

Remember that stat about how he had his game with the fewest points that season in the playoffs all four times he’s gone? He broke that streak by putting up 25 in this game (lowest game was 16 points in Pittsburgh). Unfortunately, the Ravens were 13-0 when they scored 28+ this year and 0-6 when they didn’t. They needed 28+ again to win this game too and came up a little short.

But this game was still different. Usually, Jackson loses a low-scoring game and wire-to-wire in the playoffs. This time, he led an opening touchdown drive, making some big plays on third downs and making it look easy. But Buffalo was able to answer with its own opening drive touchdown to tie it at 7.

Jackson’s next pass was intercepted on either a poor read or a ball that just got away from him. Uh-oh, here comes the narrative. He can’t handle the playoffs and this was the coldest game of his career. But the Bills punted from there, so it didn’t really harm things.

The next drive was the significant one with the Ravens driving into Buffalo territory in a 7-7 game. It always hurts when you compound mistakes in the playoffs, and the Ravens did that here. Mark Andrews dropped a pass that should have set up a 2nd-and-short, then a bad snap was high to Jackson, he tried to make too much happen on the play instead of settling for a sack and third-and-long, and he fumbled it. The Bills returned it to the Baltimore 24 and set themselves up for another one of those short touchdown drives with Josh Allen scoring from 1 yard out to go up 14-7.

Just like that, Lamar had two quick turnovers, something he hadn’t done all regular season, and the playoff choke narrative was writing itself nicely. But there was a drop and bad snap that directly preceded that mistake. He wasn’t alone there.

We used to show grace to people who made up for their mistakes, but that seems to have gone out the window in today’s society. If you look at how Jackson finished the game from there, he played great and did his job. Throw in an opening-drive touchdown, and it’s really those two plays with the turnovers that were his biggest flaws on the night.

In the past, Lamar would have just crumbled from there. This time, he made plays and strung together drives, but they still didn’t all result in touchdowns because the running game had some letdowns. I’m not sure why they didn’t pound Henry more when they had 1st-and-goal at the 2. They were stuffed, then tried throwing twice before settling for a field goal and 14-10 deficit.

Buffalo used most of the final 3:43 in the half to score a touchdown, but the drive was not without controversy. On a 3rd-and-5, Allen threw incomplete for rookie Keon Coleman, who drew a defensive pass interference flag against former Bill Tre’Davious White. The call was bullshit. That’s either OPI or preferably no flag at all since they were both engaged with each other. Just a terrible call that led to the Bills scoring another 4-yard touchdown run by Allen to take a 21-10 lead into the half.

https://twitter.com/GeneSteratore/status/1881143728703979919

https://twitter.com/GeneSteratore/status/1881143728703979919

Again, this is the spot where you expect Lamar to crumble, but it did not happen this time. It helped that the Bills punted twice in the third quarter after a couple of ineffective drives. Frankly, I have no idea what the plan was for Buffalo’s passing game. They ran a chickenshit, dink-and-dunk style passing game where Allen got the ball out the fastest he has all season, but it only kind of worked because the running game was solid with America getting a chance to see how impressive this line and trio of backs has been.

But it took Allen a long time to even break 100 passing yards, and he only finished the game with 127 passing yards and 20 rushing yards on a quiet night.

Once Henry broke through with a touchdown run on his best drive of the night by far (he finished with 84 rushing yards), the Ravens went for two. I always say they’re terrible at these, and they didn’t prove me wrong as they love throwing on them. Jackson’s pass was incomplete and the Ravens still trailed 21-19. I didn’t think it was too early to go for it there.

The Bills settled for a 51-yard field goal to make it 24-19. This was looking a lot like their playoff game in this round last year against the Chiefs with Allen mixing a good running game and the dink and dunk to have a fourth-quarter lead at home. But Jackson had his shot to go up 27-24, the same score the Chiefs won that game by last year.

It was going well until Andrews decided to try getting YAC at midfield, only for him to have the ball punched out on a huge fumble. Just the second lost fumble of his career too. He usually doesn’t try to move like that in the open field, and it was a big turning point.

The Bills turned that into points but not before a huge decision on 4th-and-2 at the Baltimore 2 with 3:31 left:

  • Do you try to go for the touchdown and 31-19 lead, putting it basically out of reach with a 2-touchdown lead and the Ravens down to one timeout?
  • Do you go for the short field goal and take a 27-19 lead, feeling comfortable that the Ravens will blow another 2PC?
  • Do you risk not getting it, and leaving yourself open to the Ravens driving for the go-ahead touchdown?

In the end, I think Sean McDermott made the right call of a field goal just because of how sure I am about Baltimore screwing up those 2PC plays. With Henry on the sideline, without Zay Flowers all game, Jackson faced his legacy drive.

I thought he did a good job with it, and maybe scoring so quickly (1:33 left) was an issue as Buffalo would have plenty of time to go get the winning score. But you’re going to take the score when it’s open, and Jackson found Isaiah Likely for the 24-yard touchdown.

But what do they do on the 2-point conversion? They’re now 2-for-9 on these in the fourth quarter when trailing with Lamar at quarterback. I even have a tweet from 2021 talking about how they go to Mark Andrews way too much in these situations and don’t connect.

https://twitter.com/ScottKacsmar/status/1473398508220825600

Sure enough, it happened again. I even screamed “Andrews!” at the TV as I saw he was open on the right side, and the pass was thrown to him again. I thought the pass was good enough and should have been caught by a Pro Bowler, but he just flat out dropped it, solidifying his spot as the biggest choker at his position as he still hasn’t scored a touchdown in the postseason. Couldn’t even catch this game-tying play right in his hands.

https://twitter.com/SharpFootball/status/1881168053033160798

That was it. The Bills recovered the onside kick and ran out the clock for a 27-25 win. The Ravens couldn’t overcome their minus-3 turnover margin on the road even though the tie was right there. Like Buffalo last year against Kansas City, it may have just ended in a 30-27 loss to a last second field goal, but you never know.

And you’ll never know when you make mistakes like that drop. Andrews should definitely get the brunt of the blame with his late-game mistakes. There’s just no margin for error left when you do that so late in the game to kill multiple drives.

The Bills had a 34-yard pass play on their third snap from scrimmage, then never had a play gain more than 17 yards the rest of the night. They sat back and pounced on Baltimore’s mistakes, getting the fortunate fumble and great field position from Lamar’s fumble on a bad snap, getting the bogus DPI call before halftime for an additional 4 points, and adding the insurance field goal after Andrews’ fumble that they forced with the punch-out. That was enough for the win this time.

The Ravens were kind of built to self-destruct at some point, but it’s still stunning to see that Jackson and Andrews would make these mistakes again in the biggest game of the year. It was Jackson early and Andrews late.

But the other stat that caught my attention, and maybe this is the way to bring it full circle and lay some responsibility on Harbaugh, is the lack of takeaways by the Ravens’ defense in the postseason.

Remember last year when Baltimore had the defensive triple crown? No. 1 in points allowed, sacks, and takeaways? Well, that great defense didn’t force a single takeaway in either playoff game against the Texans or Chiefs. That doesn’t mean they didn’t play well enough to win both games, but they didn’t get the takeaways that make it easier to do so like Buffalo’s been getting all year. The Bills are somehow now +16 in fumble recoveries and +27 in turnover margin this year – absurd numbers. They just set the modern NFL record with 21 straight games without losing the turnover battle.

https://twitter.com/ScottKacsmar/status/1881273588407550258

Meanwhile, the Ravens have tied the NFL record by going four straight playoff games without a takeaway. Their last came in the 2022 AFC wild card in Cincinnati, the game started by Tyler Huntley for an injured Lamar, who hasn’t seen a takeaway in a playoff game since 2020 in Tennessee. That’s five straight playoff starts for Lamar where his defense didn’t get a turnover, which would be the longest streak in NFL history.

It’s still the ultimate team game. Baltimore’s lack of playoff success in the Jackson era has never been about only him, but he has been the central figure as the quarterback who has played well below his standards in those games.

But this game was something different. He had his mistakes, but so do many quarterbacks in big playoff games, including everyone from Joe Montana to Tom Brady to Patrick Mahomes. I don’t remember when perfection was ever the requirement to win these games.

But when your star tight end turns into whatever you want to call Andrews’ performance, and your defense doesn’t get any takeaways or create a real swing of momentum, then you’re left with coming up short like this.

I can understand why Jackson sounded extra frustrated in the post-game, and even if he was truly talking about his own turnovers, I can forgive him if he had Andrews first in mind after everything that happened this season from Likely’s toe on opening night to Kyle Hamilton’s dropped interception in Cleveland to Justin Tucker’s awful game against the Eagles to now this loss in Buffalo.

At least we know damn well that the Ravens would have choked on the 2PC in Kansas City if they went for it opening night. I said it then. But if I knew in 2021 that they were throwing too many passes in general and way too many to Andrews in these clutch 2PC moments, why don’t they know that in 2025?

Jackson is making progress in the playoffs with three pretty solid games in his last four tries. His QBR (85.8) was higher in this game than Allen’s (71.1), and yes, he even beat him in the precious EPA stat.

But is Andrews making progress in big games? No. Is the defense coming up with the kind of clutch takeaways that drove teams like the Commanders, Eagles, and Bills to wins this weekend? Nope.

At least the Ravens didn’t panic after going down 21-10 this time, but their progress in the playoffs is slow moving. Bad enough to change coaches? I’m not sure. I just know someone is always screwing up in Baltimore save for 2012, and even that year was saved by Rahim Moore taking the worst angle possible on the touchdown to Jacoby Jones (RIP) in Denver.

Had that gone like every other Baltimore postseason, I don’t think I’d be talking about Harbaugh coaching this team right now. He’d have been let go many years ago.

But the Ravens have just completed one of the most dominant 7-year runs (2018-24) in NFL history without a single Super Bowl appearance to show for it. Even the 1979 Rams got there with Vince Ferragamo at quarterback. The closest thing to Baltimore might be Buffalo if that team loses next week too. Otherwise, it’s probably the 1999-2005 Colts as the closest comparison.

That team won the Super Bowl in 2006 after people wrote them off when they followed a 9-0 start with a 3-4 finish. They still had their albatross receiver (Marvin Harrison) weighing the offense down in the postseason, but they still produced enough points and the defense finally started producing turnovers.

Maybe Baltimore can do that in 2025, but it’s tough to keep coming back after finishing short like this. The competition isn’t going away either. It’s the same demons to slay, but Baltimore might have to look in house and fix some of their own demons first. Whether that means moving forward with Likely as TE1, a different coach, or trying to become more of a pass-first offense, they need to shake things up.

And no matter what you do, hold onto the fucking ball.

Commanders at Lions: Shock and Awe

I believed in Jayden Daniels enough to cover the spread and give Detroit a battle, but I sure as hell didn’t expect a 45-31 win to end Detroit’s dream season. He had that kind of “road virtuoso” performance that is so rare in the playoffs for a considerable underdog, and he did it as a rookie – granted, the best rookie QB to ever do it.

But for as shocking as the game was, it kind of made sense too. I just wrote the other day that Detroit’s fatal flaws are Jared Goff going goofy with turnovers and the defense having too many injuries to survive a playoff run against these non-Sam Darnold-led offenses.

Sure enough, both things did them in. Goff turned it over three times in the first half, then one more for good measure at the end with the game basically out of reach. The Lions also did themselves no favors when they threw a pick on a trick play in a 38-28 game in the fourth quarter with Jameson Williams making a bonehead throw. Maybe burn that one, Ben Johnson.

But I think the clear turning point was in the second quarter. You have this fun offensive game going on. Terry McLaurin just took a pass 58 yards to the end zone for a 17-14 lead. You think Detroit is going to answer, then bang, Goff throws a bad pick-six, he gets absolutely destroyed by a cheap shot to the face on the return. That should have been a penalty to negate the touchdown and make Washington earn it on offense. Instead, they get nothing in their favor and Goff leaves the game momentarily.

That’s what started the Lions chasing a 10-point deficit the rest of the night. You like to think you can get one score before halftime, but Goff threw another pick. Then when you think you have some answers in the fourth quarter, you leave 12 men on the field defensively on a 4th-and-2, and the Commanders convert one that way in embarrassing fashion for Dan Campbell’s staff.

Then the Williams pick disaster happened, and just like that, it’s 45-28 with half a quarter to go and your season is essentially over. You can’t make up that turnover deficit against such a hot offense that played mistake free football. Daniels diagnosed the blitz so well, he didn’t take any sacks, no turnovers, and they were 3-of-4 on fourth down (not including the 12 men penalty).

It’s crazy to think the Lions were closer to winning last year’s Super Bowl than this one. I made sure not to blame Goff or Campbell’s decision making for last year’s blown lead in San Francisco in the title game. That was more about the Josh Reynold drops, the Gibbs fumble, and the deflected pass to Aiyuk that could have been picked. But this time around? Yeah, Goff shit the bed and that defense just didn’t have any answers for Daniels and company outside of a poorly run sneak by Marcus Mariota on the opening drive.

Just spectacular stuff from Washington, the only road team to win this postseason. They have one more tough task left, but why shouldn’t the best rookie quarterback ever become the first to start a Super Bowl? That’d be a hell of a story.

It also puts to shame these teams who talk about multi-year rebuilding plans and act like you need so many years to get competitive. This team won 4 games last year, hired a retread in Dan Quinn, a retread OC in Kliff Kingsbury, signed cast-off veterans like Zach Ertz and Austin Ekeler, and it’s all working because they found the right quarterback in Daniels. How can you not be impressed?

As for Detroit, it looks quite possible 2023 was their window to get it done. Beat the 49ers, and they would have had their shot at upsetting the Chiefs without great weapons on KC’s side that year and a head-to-head win to start that season in Arrowhead. The Lions aren’t going to fall off in 2025 most likely, but you wonder if they lose Johnson, what happens to the offensive creativity, and is Goff someone you can trust to go the distance in the playoffs? The defense should be healthier, but I question even if they had Aidan Hutchinson if they still have enough stars to be a championship unit on that side of the ball.

https://twitter.com/ScottKacsmar/status/1880907234705567754

But I genuinely feel bad for Detroit fans because I thought this was going to be their year. Their aggressive calls on fourth down could have been quite the show against the Chiefs in the Super Bowl if the No. 1 seeds met. Now, maybe Washington can be that team with a true gamer and demon at quarterback in Daniels.

Rams at Eagles: Saquon the Snow Angel

My expectations for this game were low since I didn’t think the Rams had the offense to keep up if the Eagles were going to throw it more, and I expected another big game from Saquon Barkley.

But it turned out to be a good game in the snow thanks to the Rams showing Monday night wasn’t a fluke as they sacked Jalen Hurts seven times, including a couple of drives where they knocked him out of field goal range. They also recorded a safety on a sack where Hurts seemed to have no interest in trying to avoid it just minutes after a bad looking play on his knee on another sack. Maybe he needed some more time but his movement wasn’t great the rest of the game.

That kept the Rams alive, and so did a couple of missed extra points from Jake Elliott. But it’s really a miracle the Rams were 13 yards away from winning this game in the closing seconds when you consider their two lost fumbles in the second half, then giving up three touchdown runs of 40-plus yards in the game. Saquon again gashed them twice for 60+ yard scores, including what should have been the clincher from 78 yards out with 4:36 left.

But that missed extra point made it interesting at 28-15. Matthew Stafford finally started hitting some passes in succession in the no huddle, the Rams managed the clock well to get the first touchdown, and the defense stood tall on the three-and-out after sacking Hurts on an ill-advised second-down pass call.

Stafford had 2:23 left to drive 82 yards for the win, which would have been such a shocker after Barkley’s long run. The drive was going pretty well, but then the Rams had a huge false start, then picked the worst time to let Jalen Carter to crash in for a sack that brought up 4th-and-11. Stafford’s pass really wasn’t even close to Puka Nacua on the sideline and the game was over.

The Eagles had 184 rushing yards on their three big touchdown runs, and just 65 net passing yards to go with it because of the sacks. I thought A.J. Brown would step up after last week’s game, or that DeVonta Smith would be a big factor after he missed the Week 12 game. But they had 6 catches for 35 yards combined in this game.

Throw in Hurts sounding like he was high on pain medication at the end of the game and uncertain about next week, and it’s not the greatest look for next Sunday against the Commanders, who are rolling with confidence right now.

Don’t go penciling that Chiefs-Eagles rematch in by any means. It probably should happen just based on the general strength of these teams and home-field advantage, but they rarely make it look easy.

They still win though. But that was a solid effort from the Rams in weather they’re not used to playing games in.

Texans at Chiefs: When You’re Rusty and Still Win Wire-to-Wire

The Chiefs have broken the brains of so many people that I’m not sure what they’ll do if this team manages to win two more games this season. Even in a game where the Chiefs came out a bit rusty after 24 days since Christmas, they still never trailed, they found ways to make Travis Kelce look like his vintage self, and they put away the Texans with eight sacks and blocked another 35-yard field goal for good measure to the naysayers.

Were the Texans outplaying them early despite the scoreboard? Yeah, I said as much, and if you ignore dreadful special teams. But that all changed halfway through the second quarter. After Hollywood Brown dropped a perfect deep ball, Travis Kelce was left wide open over the middle where he actually made a YAC play for the longest playoff catch of his career (49 yards). The Chiefs finished that drive for a touchdown and led 13-3.

Even after that moment, the Chiefs still outscored the Texans 10-9 before intentionally taking a safety in the final seconds. The game never really felt in doubt, but that won’t stop ESPN from acting like it was a travesty the Texans lost another divisional round game. From Troy Aikman having a fit in the booth about the penalties to graphics like this after the game, they’re really trying to sell it hard that a team who lost wire-to-wire was the better team and something unnatural must have caused this loss:

https://twitter.com/ScottKacsmar/status/1880882765803270549

Yeah, it’s called the Texans played poorly, and the Chiefs took advantage of it.

On Sunday, the NFL supported both the roughing the passer call and late hit on Mahomes’ late slide. Don’t say the NFL never admits to errors, because I have a list of such times they did coming up this week. You may not like the dynamics of those calls with the late slide an issue, but they said any time you go to the head and neck area, it’s likely going to get a call that wouldn’t be changed even if replay assist looked at it.

Also, I can’t believe people are going to pretend like the Chiefs couldn’t overcome a 2nd-and-6, which would have been the situation after the Mahomes scramble without the 15-yard flag. Did the refs give up that touchdown on 3rd-and-goal from the 11 too? A perfect pass to Kelce while falling down to make it 20-12 in the fourth quarter.

Did the officials cause C.J. Stroud to go 1-of-8 in success rate while trailing 20-12 in the fourth quarter? He did that. The Chiefs tackled him cleanly on the opening drive that made him limp, and while he still had some good scrambles in this game, by the end of it he couldn’t move well, Steve Spagnuolo smelled blood in the water, and they racked up four of their eight sacks on one drive.

Then there’s the piss-poor special teams. You could see it on the opening snap when the Chiefs had a 63-yard return, fumbled it, but Houston failed to recover. Then the idiot (Kris Boyd) who forced the fumble threw his helmet off for a 15-yard flag, then had the nerve to go shove his position coach on the sideline.

If that wasn’t enough, the kicker Fairbairn missed an extra point, badly missed a 55-yard field goal they probably shouldn’t have attempted in the cold, and had his 35-yard kick blocked just so the Chiefs can show Denver was no fluke. That’s a 10-point swing on special teams alone, and with the Chiefs getting some good field position on several drives, that helped build up a yardage disparity.

But the other disingenuous part of that 49-0 graphic is the “outgained by 100 yards” stat of it. The Chiefs were outgained by 124 yards (336-212), but they lost 27 yards intentionally on the last drive with a couple of kneeldowns and an intentional safety. Otherwise, they wouldn’t have been outgained by 100 yards and the stat wouldn’t exist. The safety might not have been 100% necessary but the strategy was to avoid a blocked punt return touchdown, the most harmful outcome that could have happened to the Chiefs at that stage of the game.

But I’m really annoyed about hearing about officials when the Texans played this poorly. Both defenders were clearly headhunting too on the play where Mahomes gave himself up and they could have just tagged him down. They took each other out on a head-to-head hit anyway, the same team that knocked out Trevor Lawrence with a nasty concussion this season. Maybe your team just has a target on its back from these plays, Houston.

I don’t see how the ref made DeMeco Ryans delay a decision to go for a fourth-and-10, fail to call timeout, then lose a bunch of yards on a sack. Houston played poorly. Even their 82-yard touchdown drive had to gain 101 yards of offense because they kept shooting themselves in the foot with penalties. It was that inefficient of a performance in turning yards into points.

There are things I’d like to see the Chiefs do better. You’re probably not beating Buffalo with 23 points or 0 catches from Hollywood and DeAndre Hopkins. The designed plays to Worthy felt too gimmicky and not the best use of his emerging talent. The lack of go for the kill shots in Houston territory were alarming from Andy Reid, who seems to get off by keeping the game within one score.

But the Texans did not even come close to deserving to win this game. The Chiefs took advantage of their mistakes and that’s why they’re moving on to host another AFC Championship Game, their seventh appearance in a row.

Next week: Huge rematches on Championship Sunday and so much history at stake. You’re God damn right I want the rookie QB vs. the three-peat in the Super Bowl, but that could be the least likely outcome we get from this final four. The Chiefs will have to overcome their last loss with starters against Buffalo, and the Eagles have to overcome their only loss in their last 15 games against the Commanders. That’s good stuff.

NFL 2024 Divisional Round Predictions: The “Oh Fvck, It’s Finally Here” Edition

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

It’s been a pretty long week building up to my favorite NFL week of the year. After a lackluster Wild Card Weekend, I’m ready for some real drama and memorable moments that I think this round, short of a classic Super Bowl, provides the best.

Do we get it? That’s hard to say. I think these four games have a lot of potential for volatility to them.

  • Are the Chiefs rusty as hell with this 24-day window since playing the Steelers, or do they look sharp and easily get past a Houston team that flopped 34-10 in this spot a year ago after one decent half in Baltimore?
  • Does Jayden Daniels only grow his legend in Detroit in a close game, or is this payback for 1991 NFC-CG (41-10 win by Washington) and another rookie QB gets routed on the road in the playoffs by a +222 scoring differential juggernaut? I do like that it’s indoors given this week is cold as fvck and that’s probably going to hamper the other games.
  • Do Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry just run wild over the Rams and Bills again, or will Jalen Hurts and Lamar Jackson actually need to throw the ball for more than 150 yards this week? And can Jackson do it in the cold without his best wide receiver (Zay Flowers)?

All I know is home teams were 5-1 last week. The team who won the previous game was 3-1 in rematches. Only one losing team scored more than 14 points. Washington was the team that broke through for all three stats. Let’s see what happens this time around.

This Week’s Articles

NFL Divisional Round Predictions

At least we’ll get my main rooting interest this weekend out of the way first.

Texans at Chiefs (-8.5)

The Chiefs win a playoff game by more than one possession? Surely you jest. But I am nervous about this one, just because it’d be a devastating blow to see the three-peat end with this opponent in the divisional round. Losing next week to either team is whatever. It’s logical. This would even be logical if the Texans had Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell, but instead they’re limping in with only Nico Collins and JAGS while hoping the defense gets a bunch of takeaways. Let’s not forget how bad Houston looked in the first half last week, which says a lot about how bad the Chargers were.

But it’s the rust thing too. 24 days off for starters is historic. I think people are reading this as a criticism of Patrick Mahomes too, but it’s not even about that. I trust him more than anyone on the Chiefs to show up. But what if it is a slow start on both sides of the ball, and you see the Chiefs get into trouble the way they did against Houston in the 2019 AFC-D when they fell behind 24-0? That’s dropped passes, a blown coverage TD on defense, a special teams mistake, etc. — All things this team is clearly capable of doing in 2024 too.

What they’re not capable of doing in 2024 anymore is coming back from a 24-0 deficit in the blink of an eye. They’ve been too methodical on offense and don’t have the big runs and YAC plays to get it done like that anymore. The Chiefs are also riding a record-tying streak of 7 games without a turnover, so that could snap in this game but they better just hope it’s not multiple turnovers or that they lose the battle there by multiple turnovers. Defense can contribute too.

But yeah, I could see someone like Jaylen Watson taking a misstep or missing an assignment in his first game since October. He has the best excuse to be rusty for the Chiefs in this game.

The Chiefs losing this game would plague hell on my mentions this weekend. But for the people talking about point differential, let’s not forget the Texans are 372 points scored, 372 points allowed this season. That’s not an impressive team. C.J. Stroud has yet to win a playoff game where his defense/ST allowed more than a net 3 points.

I think the Chiefs are playing with fire in a way that isn’t really their fault because of scheduling, getting the No. 1 seed, and injuries to key players. But working in a new LT (Humphries or Tuney) and WRs (Hollywood) this late in the year against a good pass rush isn’t the greatest. Of course, Week 16 happened too, and that’s why I’m not that concerned.

Just survive the first half and the Chiefs should be fine. But no, I’m not picking them to cover. This is the Kansas City special. They don’t cover but they still win.

Final: Chiefs 24, Texans 17

Commanders at Lions (-9.5)

Pretty cool to see the only two teams in NFL history to have 3 games in a season with 0 punts/turnovers face each other in the playoffs. I hope it is a 4th-down fever dream from both sides with dazzling plays and second guessing all night — a game so weird that David Lynch is looking down and nodding in approval.

I like those stats that the Lions have failed to win by 10 points in 8-of-9 games where they allowed 20 points and also in games where they turn it over once. I think Washington can achieve both of those things in this game, especially the scoring since they’ve had at least 18 in every game.

But it’s tough for a rookie to win games like this, and Daniels already exceeded expectations last week. Still, I’m going with the same score I had last week, the same score the Commanders lost in Baltimore this year.

Final: Lions 30, Commanders 23

Rams at Eagles (-6.5)

Yeah, you’re not going to convince me this probably won’t be the worst game this weekend. I just don’t care for watching the Eagles most of the time, and that GB game last week is a pretty solid example for why. I wish they showed a little more care in throwing the ball, but maybe this game will get it from them.

But I expect Saquon Barkley to do well without the 70-yard touchdown runs this time. You just can’t stop that line from dominating right now. Then you have an LA team on the road that hasn’t topped 20 offensive points in any of Stafford’s last 4 starts. He’s become so dependent on Puka Nacua. They haven’t scored much on the Eagles the last two years. I have very low hopes for the Rams in this one, but I do think McVay is a better coach than Sirianni, and that defense has been playing very well in the last month. You never know.

Final: Eagles 23, Rams 14

Ravens at Bills (+1.5)

I see we’re already doing that thing where “Lamar should win as the favorite” in a game where the spread has gone from Buffalo -1 to Ravens -1.5, which is still tiny as these teams are so close this year they even have the same scoring differential (+157).

More than Half of my 6,000-word AFC preview was spent on this game, so I’ve said a lot about it already.. But my main takeaway has been this:

I said it before the season that the Ravens bomb in the playoffs because they try to be the offense they aren’t with throwing the ball and leaning on Lamar to do everything. They can’t do that in this game, especially with Zay Flowers out. I think if the Ravens play bully ball and stick with the run and 2-TE formations and Lamar does very well as a dual-threat, then the Ravens have a very good chance of winning this game. Their D has been the best at limiting points in the second half of the season and they already held Buffalo to a season-low 10 points.

But do I trust the Ravens to do that if they fall behind 7 or 10 points? Will they just panic again and abandon Henry and lead Lamar into trouble in what could be the coldest game of his career? This guy is dressed like Ralphie in A Christmas Story in Houston weather. He’s going to be freezing in Buffalo.

If the game was in Baltimore, I don’t think I’d be questioning it as much. But I’m more in the camp that I need to see this team do something differently in a game like this before I believe fully in them to pull it off. So yeah, I’m probably in that mindset that if the Ravens win this game, they’ll beat the Chiefs next week as I said after Week 1 they’ll feel good for the rematch. And if it’s Houston, then hell yeah they’re going to the Super Bowl. Both of these teams will feel SB bound if that first game Saturday goes Houston’s way.

But that’s the thing. I don’t think this game is going to live up to the hype because of the weather and the fact that QB duels rarely pan out in the playoffs. It’s the defense. It’s the better OL/running game. It’s turnovers, which Buffalo better watch out for cause they are long overdue for some fumbles going against them. It’s rarely the QBs, and the four Jackson-Allen games to date haven’t been QB masterclasses at all.

Do the Ravens still win ugly games? Because they might have to here. Haven’t won a game without scoring 28 points this year, but it could happen here if the defense shows up against Allen. I don’t see the Ravens scoring 28 at all. The under 51.5 is one of my favorite picks this week, and if you’re betting on the Ravens to lose, you should probably consider under 16.5 alternate points (think it’s like +500) to keep in line with the “Lamar scores his season low in the playoffs” stat.

But I think it is a coin flip game. The Ravens are more battle tested. They kicked Buffalo’s ass already. They’re better built for this weather right now. But they just have to show us that they can adapt in a playoff game and handle the pressure on the road.

Also, I hope I’m wrong about this game. I hope it is a QB classic, but I just don’t see it living up to 2021 Allen-Mahomes in the divisional round. But the funny thing about that game is the legacy would be even greater if the Chiefs won the Super Bowl that year. They didn’t even get there, losing to the Bengals the following week.

And that’s my other point about this game. For the winner, don’t get too cocky. All this hype about the MVP and this game, it doesn’t mean a damn thing if your team just goes into Kansas City next week and loses again, putting that team one game away from a three-peat, the closest anyone’s ever been.

This is not the end, but it is for one of these teams.

Final: Bills 24, Ravens 20