Category: NFL Stat Oddity

2026 NFL Stat Oddity: Week 8

NFL Stat Oddity 2026
~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

Week 8 felt like a major shift in the 2026 NFL picture. The Vikings finally lost a game, Andy Reid royally blew a game in Denver, the Steelers took down Deshaun Watson eight times without his consent, and the Ravens’ season may be over after another major injury for Lamar Jackson.

We had eight games with a comeback opportunity, and we watched five more teams blow a double-digit lead. That brings the season total to 25, halfway to the 2022 record of 50 such games.

And yeah, Joe Burrow won an NFL game for the first time ever after trailing in the last 2:00. Only took a game against the 1-win Titans (+12.5) to do it, but that’s why you have to put things in context.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Chiefs at Broncos: Game of the Week

We haven’t had a lot of big AFC games yet this season, but this one may have been the most pivotal result through Week 8. The Chiefs had a chance to complete the sweep of Denver, last year’s No. 1 seed, but blew a 24-13 lead in the fourth quarter. The Broncos (6-2) take over first place in the AFC West, and there’s a chance they don’t relinquish it given the remaining schedules for both teams.

The Chiefs went from about a 65.5% chance to win the AFC West before this game to 46.5% after losing it. More than anyone, this loss was on coach Andy Reid after the 68-year-old ran through his greatest hits of game mismanagement and career-long blind spots. Sean Payton and his staff ate up Reid and his staff in this one.

Short-yardage Woes: You can start with the dichotomy that decided the game at the goal line. Sean Payton’s offense was able to scheme open two wide-open touchdown passes on fourth-and-goal. Meanwhile, the Chiefs had three cracks from the 1-yard line in a 28-24 game and couldn’t come up with the right call or strategy to score. They even brought out “Corn Dog” from their Super Bowl wins and the Broncos were all over it. After Mahomes had the game-winning touchdown pass to Rice, it didn’t count because Jaylon Moore had a false start (little flinch). Reid refuses to run a QB sneak package because of a freak injury to Mahomes in Denver in 2019 (dislocated kneecap), and it continues to hurt the Chiefs to this day.

Put Noah Gray in the Tush Push formation as teams do with their tight ends, including the Steelers who scored on a touchdown before halftime with Pat Freiermuth. Put Justin Fields in the game and run him. What else are you paying him for? Or just man up and let Mahomes sneak it. It’s gotten silly to the point where it could cost the Chiefs another Super Bowl run.

Gadget Guys: Sean Payton was pressed for not using Marvin Mims more on offense this season. Mims had four touches for 29 yards in this one, including a nice 14-yard run on one of the fourth-quarter touchdown drives. Meanwhile, the Chiefs couldn’t get their gadget player, Xavier Worthy, going again. He had 13 yards on 6 targets and 3 catches. He ran out of bounds on the Corn Dog play the Chiefs used to score on years ago, not even giving Mahomes a target to throw to. He has no awareness for the field at all.

Rookie Training Wheels: The game was a good display for mid-round rookie backs on both sides with Emmett Johnson (143 yards from scrimmage) and Jonah Coleman (104 YFS) both scoring and both carrying the offense on the day. But the Broncos still relied on Coleman on the game-winning drive after his 51-yard catch and 5-yard touchdown run with 1:56 left.

But the Chiefs stuck with Kenneth Walker, who hasn’t had a good two weeks now, on their final drive. Johnson was clearly running hard all game, and going with a run at the 1 with him (they had a timeout) would have been a call the Broncos didn’t expect. With how great Johnson looked, I’m giving him a shot there as Walker has not been a good short-yardage back. He was stuffed at the 1 on second down.

Also, rookie wideout Cyrus Allen had two catches for 20 yards but may have had a long touchdown catch too if he didn’t stop early on a deep route. That seemed to penalize him for the rest of the game. He still outproduced Worthy, who the Chiefs just can’t seem to quit despite terrible production.

Reid needs to trust the rookies more, but he’s always had issues with teaching them to be prepared earlier in the season.

Conservative Big Red: Reid’s game management in the fourth quarter was as bad as you’ve ever seen in a game in the Mahomes era. It started right away with the Chiefs up 24-13 and facing a fourth-and-inches. There was confusion over the spot, but Reid could have challenged (it was close) and he could have gone for it. He decided to punt rather quickly, and the Broncos drove 80 yards for 8 points with relative ease.

If you did any honest study of your play and the way the Broncos thrive in the 4Q on offense, you’d know that was a worthwhile 4th-and-inches to go for. The fact that Reid continues to punt in these situations with Mahomes as his quarterback and trusts a defense that usually folds in the clutch just goes to show he is a dinosaur that doesn’t want to learn new things. It was a terrible punt decision.

But there was more. With 2:44 left, Kansas City faced a 3rd-and-2 at the Denver 30. Why not run the ball if you’re supposed to be this great running team now? A pass comes with the double risk of a sack or pick, and sure enough, the Broncos got their first sack of the game. Mahomes probably should have thrown it away, but the play call was terrible in that spot.

Then Reid decided to let Harrison Butker, the struggling kicker, try one from 54 yards out in the rain. Of course he missed it. The field goal to go up 6 is really the worst decision there between punting and going for it. Yet that’s the choice Reid made. Again, I don’t even blame Butker that much for this one. The Chiefs needed to treat this drive as touchdown or bust (or run out the clock) and they botched it.

The defense only needed two plays to give up the touchdown, so at least they were quick about it. The offense had plenty of time (1:48) after a good kick return by Johnson (what can’t he do?), but Reid’s poor clock management shined again. I actually think that good kick return might have been the worst outcome since it just made the Chiefs call worse plays by trying to work on the clock and score as late as possible instead of running the most optimal plays to score a touchdown.

In fact, that’s how Pete Carroll and the Seahawks lost Super Bowl 49. Same score too (28-24). Sure, you need to be aware of the clock and you don’t want to score a 50-yard touchdown right away. But you can’t slow-walk a touchdown and time it out perfectly. A field goal, yes, but not a touchdown. You take it when you can get it, and if you can’t defend a 3-point lead with 20, 30, 40 seconds left, then that’s your fault.

Once the Chiefs got to the 1, I’m calling for the QB sneak. Maybe twice if I have to. But we know that’s now what Reid does.

Stubborn Reid: Finally, it’s fitting this game ended with left guard Mike Caliendo getting beat and giving up a game-ending sack on 4th-and-goal. Caliendo was a surprise start for Kingsley Suamataia, who was benched by Reid for the second time this season. Once again, the matter is undisclosed, so your guess is good as mine. But by actively starting the worse guard who gave up as many pressures (5) in Denver as Kingsley has all year, Reid cost his quarterback and team a huge game. You can talk about accountability, but you lose a lot of credibility the week your team signs Justin Tucker. So, what’s really going on here?

I’ve picked the Chiefs to lose these last two weeks, and they showed you why both games. They weren’t even playing that well when they were 5-0, and teams like Seattle and Denver can exploit these mistakes and roster flaws. But Sunday could really send the team on a downward spiral if they’re not careful.

But as long as Reid is the coach, I don’t see anything changing. They need to move on after the season, probably from GM Veach too. Get a fresh start with young ambition and ideas as Reid has overstayed his welcome just like he did in Philadelphia. Thank him for the service and the wins, but the game has passed him by just like it did for Bill Belichick in New England. It’s the natural cycle of a coaching life. Reid will be 69 next season, and that’s not nice in this league.

Meanwhile, Denver continues to beat the odds. They had a record-tying eight game-winning drives last year, and they’re already 5-1 at GWD opportunities this season. Bo Nix has the most 4QC wins (13) through a quarterback’s first three seasons, and he’s already tied for the most through four seasons. He’s played 2.5 seasons.

NFL QB - Most 4th Quarter Comeback Wins by Year

Nix also has the most game-winning drives (16) through three seasons, and his record is 16-6 (.727) in these games. It’s insane, it should blow up in Denver’s faces eventually, but it hasn’t so far. Nix might prove to be the Eli//Flacco/Spygate-era Brady of his generation as he goes on a Super Bowl run this year.

Remember, Eli and Flacco ended multiple playoff runs for Brady during his decade-long title drought. Maybe Nix is that kind of roadblock for Mahomes in the AFC West, denying him easy entries to home playoff games after the Chiefs’ reign in the division ended last year.

As long as Reid is there doing the same things over and over and expecting a different result, it’s more likely to be the case. The Chiefs royally blew this one, and that’s on the coach we criticized for the same reasons during the Bush presidency.

Vikings at Lions: The ’72 Dolphins Had Nothing to Worry About

Minnesota’s first loss snapped an improbable 11-game winning streak dating back to last year. But the Lions are probably one of the worst opponents and worst nightmares for the Vikings in 2026:

  • A very talented offense top to bottom that knows Brian Flores’ defense well.
  • A team that can run the ball as Detroit piled up 230 rushing yards (153 for Jahmyr Gibbs), and the Vikings haven’t been tested that much on the ground.
  • Detroit hasn’t been very good defensively, but it shut down the running game for Minnesota as Kyler Murray (35 yards) was their leading rusher on Sunday.
  • Murray’s passive play makes it hard to score enough points and convert enough money downs to win a game like this. The Vikings were 3/10 on third downs and 0/1 on fourth down.

But the ability to get four sacks and the first pick of the season from Jared Goff helped the Vikings maintain a lead for much of this low-scoring game.

Down 12-7 in the fourth quarter, I thought it was a tactical mistake by the Vikings to go for a 4th-and-5 over a 43-yard field goal after a very length injury timeout on a scary play that saw multiple Lions go down. Hopefully Jack Campbell does not have a Ryan Shazier type of injury as I’m not seeing any updates on his condition at 4 AM, which isn’t encouraging.

But I think the Vikings should have just kicked the field goal there after emotions were high on both sides. They forced a three-and-out and led a touchdown drive anyway to take a 15-12 lead with 8:44 left. But Detroit has the offense to answer, and the running game was great on the drive with Goff finding Jameson Williams for a 7-yard touchdown to make it 19-15.

The Vikings had 4:29 left but went three-and-out. This time they punted on a 4th-and-5 from their own 33 with 3:01 left. Probably the right call with the No. 1 defense back in the day. But when you’re on the road and playing an offense like Detroit in today’s NFL, I think you need to go for that one. Give yourself a chance to convert a medium situation, and if you don’t get it, hopefully you force that three-and-out, and at worst you get it back down 22-15 with plenty of time to get the touchdown.

I think that Minnesota punt from Kevin O’Connell, who is used to winning close games, was one of the worst decisions all day in Week 8. The Lions took over and immediately went to work on the ground. Gibbs for 14, Gibbs for 8, a 2-yard push by tight end Sam LaPorta for another first down. By the time it was 3rd-and-1, Goff put the game away on the sneak, and you know Dan Campbell would have gone for it anyway on 4th-and-1 if he didn’t get it.

The Vikings never got the ball back as the Lions took care of the final 2:53. Good win for Detroit (5-2) with winnable games ahead. As for the Vikings, you’re just not seeing enough progress offensively. Murray’s numbers aren’t terrible, but this baseline performance is basically who he is now, and I don’t see any bump in his play like KOC was able to get out of Kirk Cousins (2022) and Sam Darnold (2024).

Ravens at Bills: Disappointment of the Week

Even if the Ravens haven’t been playing well, this was still an interesting game in the AFC on Sunday with the return of Lamar Jackson. Unfortunately, that lasted one snap before Jackson injured his right thumb on a follow-through on a pass from the pocket. It was not a matter of being a running quarterback. It’s the kind of play that could happen to any quarterback on any pass, and it’s a miracle it doesn’t happen every season to several starters.

Worse, Tyler Huntley was soon knocked out with an injury too, putting third-string emergency quarterback Joe Fagnano in a 13-7 game in the second quarter. Apparently it’s “fan-YAWN-oh” on the pronunciation, and it was a yawn after he had to enter the game as an undrafted rookie.

It’s a shame too because this game was there for the taking. Both teams were very sloppy, they already had eight drives each by halftime, there were multiple turnovers, and I thought the Baltimore defense actually played hard this week, even stopping Josh Allen on multiple short-yardage runs.

But with Fagnano unable to sustain drives in a game he probably never thought he’d play in Sunday, the Ravens eventually fell apart in the fourth quarter. Buffalo was already up 23-10, which would have been enough to win, but then two more touchdowns pushed it to a 36-10 blowout.

Meanwhile, this game against backup quarterbacks (minus one throw) will help boost the stats for the Buffalo defense, giving up 10 points on 12 drives, including a 17-yard touchdown drive. But they were never really tested here.

Jackson is on injured reserve and could be lost for the season, which is quickly turning into another lost one with the Ravens at 4-4 and Jacksonville up next on a short week. Some even think Jackson may have played his last down with Baltimore, which would have sounded insane a year ago or even in early September.

But that’s where things are. Jackson and Allen played in their NFL debut in 2018 against each other. If it really does end for Jackson in Baltimore, his last game was also against Allen’s Bills.

Hate to see it go down like this.

Browns at Steelers: The Rare Wire-to-Wire Domination by Pittsburgh in a Big Game

They said it was over 30 years since the Steelers and Browns met in November with first place in the division on the line. This was certainly their biggest matchup since the 2020 AFC Wild Card, a playoff game where the Browns jumped out to a 28-0 lead.

But for a change, the Steelers under Mike McCarthy instead of Mike Tomlin controlled a big game from start to finish, forcing two Cleveland fumbles on the first two drives, and the running game was superb again with 200 yards. In fact, the passing game and playcalling in the red zone were the only sore spots with D.K. Metcalf dropping a pass that was intercepted, and Aaron Rodgers wasn’t sharp in the red area.

Otherwise, the Steelers played great, they sacked Deshaun Watson eight times, and after going up 27-6 barely five minutes into the third quarter, all scoring ceased from there on both sides.

The Steelers go into the bye at 6-2 and in good shape with a huge game again at Cincinnati in Week 10. It would be nice to get some receivers healthy and make up for Metcalf’s lapses, but they have to feel good about where they are right now.

Titans at Bengals: No, 2-35 Is Not Something to Be Proud Of

When Joe Burrow said Sunday was the kind of game the Bengals have lost the last three years, I agree with him. But I’d go a step further and say it’s the kind of game he never wins with the Bengals, because he really hadn’t before Sunday:

  • Sunday is the first time Burrow has taken a snap after the two-minute warning, trailing, and the Bengals won the game.
  • Burrow was 0-15 when the Bengals allowed more than 31 points in a game.
  • Burrow was 1-35 when trailing in the final 8:00 by any margin, and now he’s 2-35.

None of those records are that bad with the other Cincinnati quarterbacks collectively under Zac Taylor, but the Burrow-led Bengals simply don’t come back late and they don’t win shootouts.

But enter the Tennessee Titans, the 1-win team who was a 12.5-point road underdog in this one (biggest spread of the week). The fact that Burrow needed this type of game (462 passing yards, 6 total touchdowns) against this caliber of opponent after it traded its best defender (Jeffery Simmons) is a red flag.

What happened to the so-called improved defense for the Bengals? Sure, they had a few bright spots like getting a safety when the Titans were dumb enough to call a draw run in their own end zone, and they shut the door in the final minute of regulation and in overtime. But you just gave up 36 points and 440 yards of offense to the Cam Ward-led Titans. Ward had 304 passing yards, a career high.

The Titans haven’t put up 36 points/440 yards since the final game of the 2020 COVID season. Are you kidding me? At home nonetheless?

Why such a high-scoring game? Another flat opening performance with the Bengals falling behind 13-0 for the second week in a row was one issue. Another was the four turnovers, including three picks by Burrow. He also had a fumbled exchange with running back Chase Brown that was switched to Brown as credit. Just not enough precision from the perfectionist throughout this one.

So, you can credit Burrow for coming through in the clutch for a change. But let’s not act like this wasn’t some “arsonist puts out fire” against a really bad opponent performance too that doesn’t bode well for their Super Bowl chances.

In fact, it’s very unusual for a favorite of 12+ points to play like this:

  • It’s just the 20th known NFL game where a 12-point favorite gave up 36+ points.
  • The last instance was in 2014 when the Packers won a 43-37 game on MNF vs. Atlanta, but at least that was a Matt Ryan and Julio Jones masterclass on the other side.

The closest game in NFL history to this one is probably in 2012 when the Texans won 43-37 in overtime against the Jaguars, who were 1-8 at the time. They were getting worked over at home by Chad Henne (354 yards, 4 TD) off the bench for an injured Blaine Gabbert, and Matt Schaub, who had lost 9 straight comeback attempts at the time, ended up throwing for 527 yards and 5 touchdowns, including a walk-off touchdown to Andre Johnson in overtime after the teams already exchanged field goals.

It was the first time in NFL history a team scored twice in overtime to win. The Texans ended up going 2-4 in their final six games that season, losing in the divisional round at New England.

Winning is cool, but the Bengals have trailed by 12-13 points in three of the last four games. It’s good they were able to win the last two weeks, but that’s the Ravens without Lamar and the Titans. We saw what happened when they played the Steelers and Jaguars earlier this year. What happens when they play the other AFC contenders and in the playoffs?

The schedule doesn’t have many tough games left for the Bengals, which is why I always liked them this year. Remember, I picked them to lose the Super Bowl. But based on what I’m seeing, I don’t like the progression of this team as I don’t believe the defense is championship caliber, and the offense is still essentially the same thing we’re used to seeing.

Why say more when I can just wait for the next time they play a contender? The Titans had no business being up 36-29 late, and if you don’t see how a turnover-filled game against a scrub is a bad thing, then I can’t help you.

Falcons at Buccaneers: Who Needs a Completion to Win Anyway?

I’m relieved to say a Bijan Robinson touchdown was the only prop pick I played from this game, because it would have been really frustrating to play anything in the passing game.

Sure, the weather conditions (rain, early winds, a soggy field) made passing very difficult here. Michael Penix was 8-for-24 for 125 yards and four interceptions, and the numbers would be even worse without a fluke 76-yard completion that didn’t score anything in the fourth quarter.

But the rain wasn’t pouring down for all 60 minutes, and the Falcons still didn’t score on any of their five second-half drives either. They also could have ran the ball better like Tampa Bay did. In fact, that’s all Tampa did as Bucky Irving (27-170-1) and Kenneth Gainwell (25-140) became the first teammates in NFL history to get at least 25 carries and 140 rushing yards in the same game.

That’s why Baker Mayfield finished just 0-of-3 passing. The Bucs finished with net -2 passing yards because of one sack. It’s the first time an NFL team won without a completion since the 1974 Bills vs. Jets in a similar rain game.

But this still stands out as odd after the Bucs scored 43 points last week despite Baker only completing 7-of-11 passes for 64 yards. You can only blame so much on the rain. If he’s not healthy enough to throw, then they shouldn’t be playing him.

But after an 0-4 start, the Bucs are 3-5 and right in the hunt for the NFC South title again. They’re just doing it in one of the strangest ways we’ve ever seen.

Chargers at Rams: The Battle of Los Angeles Confirms the Chargers Are the Most Disappointing Team of 2026

The Battle of Los Angeles saw the Chargers (0-6) and Rams (3-4) enter with a combined 3-10 record. This was truly a battle to determine the most disappointing team in 2026, and the Chargers led 9-3 late in the first half before the Rams got a touchdown. Then in true 2026 Chargers form, they completed a deflected Hail Mary to Ladd McConkey for 54 yards, but he was stopped at the 1 as time expired. A meaningless play for a meaningless season.

The Chargers did not score on their final five drives, and the Rams handed them a 10th-straight loss in a 24-9 final. Justin Herbert continues to throw the dumbest interceptions we’ve ever seen from him. His 32.9 QBR is ranked dead last in the NFL as you could make the argument that he should just sit at this point.

Meanwhile, a very damning stat came out of this one as the Chargers have gone 27 offensive drives without a touchdown, the longest NFL streak since Mike McDaniel’s Dolphins went 30 drives in 2024.

Chargering used to be funny and entertaining. This is just sad at this point.

Cardinals at Cowboys: Strange (Minshew) Magic

This game was good evidence for my beliefs that the Cowboys have a dumb coaching staff, Gardner Minshew is cut out for comebacks that Jacoby Brissett wouldn’t lead, and the Cardinals would be the best team in the NFC East right now if they weren’t stuck in the NFC West.

Also, Arizona just owns the Cowboys in this era. It was true in the Tony Romo era, and it’s even more true in the Dak Prescott era with this latest improbable comeback.

Arizona benched Brissett for Minshew with 1:35 left in the third quarter and a 17-3 deficit. Tyler Allgeier deserves credit for getting the comeback going with a 63-yard touchdown run. That was one of four straight touchdown drives by the Cardinals after inserting Minshew, who threw for 188 yards and three touchdowns on less than a half of work.

Dallas still had leads of 24-10, 27-17, and 30-24 in the fourth quarter. But down 27-17 left with 3:54, the Cardinals became just the 32nd NFL team since 2001 to win a game after trailing by multiple scores in the last 5:00 and manufacturing all the points that late.

NFL Comebacks in the Last 5:00 (Down Multiple Scores) 2001-2026

Something I noticed about this table is that the Cardinals join the 2014 Seahawks (NFC Championship Game vs. Green Bay) and 2025 Broncos vs. Giants (the last example) as the only three teams who won despite allowing more points during the comeback. The Packers got a field goal to force overtime, the Giants had a go-ahead touchdown after falling behind, and the Cowboys added a field goal on Sunday.

I guess that part was a bit controversial too on Dallas’ part. The Cardinals got a touchdown to Trey McBride to make it 27-24, then Ryan Flournoy recovered the onside kick with a nice return too with 2:07 left. Arizona had one timeout left. The Cards ended up using that last timeout at 2:02 after a Dallas run for no gain as the offense bottomed out badly late in the game.

I think you could argue a first-down pass with play-action would have been the best move as the Arizona defense likely wouldn’t have expected it. Not even a deep throw for a first down. Just something to gain 6-9 yards and keep you on track.

With 2:02 left, Dallas basically had a free play to throw it with the two-minute warning about to hit, and a first down ends the game. Instead, Dak was sacked, bringing up 3rd-and-16. It’s not like you’re probably going to convert that through the air, so I don’t fault the decision to run, which they did for 3 yards. The Cowboys then kicked a 41-yard field goal on 4th-and-13 with 1:09 left to make it 30-24.

Sure, it’s the dreaded 6-point lead, but what else could you really do on 3rd-and-16 and 4th-and-13? They basically had to kick at that point. Paint the failures on the first two downs of that series, not the last two.

Also, the defense could theoretically stop a backup quarterback from driving 80 yards in 65 seconds, can’t they? I mean, how often do you see a team go 80+ yards in the last 65 seconds, down 4-8 points? Stathead only shows it happening six other times, though I question some of those results.

But Minshew pulled it off as Michael Wilson has turned into a stud. He had three catches for 61 yards on the drive, including a 13-yard touchdown that should have won the game. But Chad Ryland showed he’s not much of a Chad by missing the extra point with 0:05 left. Oof.

Dallas lucked out in getting to OT, and I can understand going on defense first as you don’t want to give that defense four downs to face Arizona’s red-hot offense. But that defense came through with a quick three-and-out. The bleeding finally stopped. Dak and the Cowboys just needed a field goal, and what did this overrated offense do? They also went three-and-out with a 2-yard run, incompletion to CeeDee Lamb, and another sack. The Cowboys had minus-9 net yards on their last three drives.

Arizona just needed a field goal, Wilson and Allgeier got them there, and Ryland redeemed his Chad card with a 42-yard field goal to win it.

Minshew is now 8-15 (.348) at 4QC opportunities while Brissett is 7-27 (.206). I would assume this means a quarterback change has been made for the next game, and while it’s not like this team is probably going anywhere in the NFC West, they could be a little more interesting to watch with the weapons they have. Minshew’s always had a decent feel for the game, and LaFleur is doing a good job with the offense this year.

But what a letdown for Dallas (3-5) as it should be yet another year without reaching the NFC Championship Game.

Raiders at Jets: An AFL-Style Shootout

I figured this game had good scoring potential with Klint Kubiak vs. Aaron Glenn’s defense on one side, and Geno Smith would want to show up the Raiders after what happened last year. An old-school AFL shootout between the two teams from the “Heidi Game” broke out with 71 points scored.

The Jets led most of the way, including two 9-point leads, but the Raiders kept coming back on a day their wide receivers had 4 catches for 38 yards and a touchdown (all by Nailor). The running game wasn’t efficient (2.9 YPC), but it’s unique how they run this offense through the backs and tight ends. Brock Bowers had 92 yards and two touchdowns.

The Raiders took a 35-30 lead in the fourth quarter. On their second attempt at a comeback drive, the Jets got the ball to the Vegas 13, but three straight plays didn’t gain a yard. They faced 4th-and-10 with 4:35 left and had a decision to make down 5.

It’s really a no man’s land situation. I see the argument for kicking the field goal as that should be high percentage, and if you use your four clock stoppages to get the ball back against a team that lacks outside WRs and a good running game (and immobile quarterback), you only need a field goal to win.

On the other hand, I see the argument for needing a touchdown, it’s been a 35-30 shootout game, and Geno was playing well with his receivers. Maybe he can convert it here. But given it was 4th-and-10, I probably would have kicked the field goal too to make it 35-33 as the Jets did. I don’t hate Glenn for that decision.

The problem was the defense played poorly in return. The Raiders finally ripped off some strong runs of 7 and 8 yards, then about the worst thing you can do is give up a 7-yard completion to bring up a 3rd-and-1 when you’re down to your last timeout. Cousins converted that on a sneak – even the senior citizens can do it – and that allowed the Raiders to drain a lot of clock.

I guess there was some second-guessing of Kubiak to kick a 53-yard field goal in a 35-33 game, because a miss would put the ball at the 43, and the Jets would have 27 seconds to set up a winning field goal. But I also don’t like the idea of punting or going for it on 4th-and-5 either, so it’s up to the kicker to earn his paycheck. Gay did from 53 yards out, and the Raiders led 38-33.

To be fair, the Jets still had a shot at this in the end. Touchback to the 35, a pass to Garrett Wilson for 15 and another 15 for the rough tackle, and you’re now 35 yards away with 14 seconds left. That should be a couple of shots to the end zone, but Geno’s first try was a great pick in the end zone by Jeremy Chinn, who sealed the deal and made up for his 15-yard penalty on the hit on Wilson.

Patriots at Dolphins: A Happy Ending in Miami for Robert Kraft

The Dolphins have a lot of experience in beating superior New England teams at home over the years. This game was a later 4:25 start instead of the usual 1:00 PM for these teams, but the Patriots didn’t really show up until the second drive of the third quarter when Drake Maye hit a 43-yard touchdown to Kyle Williams. Maye’s first 17 plays gained 42 yards total against one of the league’s worst defenses.

But a couple of overturned pass plays that went in New England’s favor sparked two touchdown drives, and the Patriots led 17-13 going into the fourth. Malik Willis played well early, but he had a bad pick to start the fourth, and that set up another long Maye touchdown pass to make it 24-13.

The Dolphins wasted nearly 6:00 and missed a 43-yard field goal, a killer. By the time they eventually found the end zone, only 2:04 remained and the onside kick (naturally) didn’t work. One first down was enough for the Patriots to run out the clock and escape with a 24-19 win.

Just not enough plays made by Miami. Like what in the Terry Rozier was this pass rush?

Colts at Jaguars: Like a Department Store Going Out of Business

The Colts have a flash sale going on with their roster, and they already seem checked out of things after Sunday’s 42-7 beatdown in Jacksonville. The rumors were that Brian Thomas Jr. will be traded too from the Jaguars, but he caught the first touchdown in this one (his only catch too).

The Jaguars are quietly rolling along with another dominant performance on both sides of the ball. They started peaking after their London trip last year too, so maybe they’ll go on a similar run here. A chance to drop the Ravens under .500 on TNF next.

As for the Colts, if that ends up being Jonathan Taylor’s last game with the team, he had just 8 carries for 23 yards. The Colts might just be ready to blow it all up and start over.

Eagles at Commanders: Your CITY SNF Game Between Two CITY Teams in a CITY Division

Let’s never do that again, NFL. They had a chance to flex the game between NFC East teams with three wins combined out of SNF and did not do so. We were left with a dull 27-10 win by the Commanders that was closer than the score suggested as the Eagles blew a 10-0 lead early, then blew a 41-yard field goal (loudest doink of the day after a 36-yard make was negated by illegal formation) that would have made it 16-13 midway through the final quarter.

Washington piled it on from there, Tanner McKee struggled as the Eagles lost their sixth straight, and Jayden Daniels finally got his first win since October 5, 2025.

But the Commanders are still 2-4-1 and not inspiring much confidence. At least Giants-Eagles is buried in the Sunday 1 PM slate next week where it belongs. I know this won’t be a shock, but the NFL has the NFC East in prime time again soon in Week 10 when the Commanders are at the Giants for TNF.

With the way this division is going, that could be the de-facto NFC East title game this season.

Next Week

Welp, TNF has already been compromised with Lamar Jackson out for the Ravens in Jacksonville. We might not even have enough time to see Tyler Huntley.

Bengals-Falcons should be a lot kinder overseas to the Atlanta offense unless they’re playing in another downpour. You know the 1 PM slate is bad when Broncos-Panthers is the closest thing to a standout game. Yikes. Guess I’ll be strictly RedZone channel with the Steelers on a bye.

Green Bay-New England will try to carry the 4:25 window. I guess Raiders-49ers could be fun for touchdown scoring. SNF is Bucs-Bears, another case of a team coming off MNF and playing on SNF. Don’t love that nor do I love the idea of seeing this Tampa team that doesn’t want to throw the ball right now.

Bills-Vikings on MNF. I know it won’t hold a candle to their 2022 classic where Justin Jefferson had the best catch of his career (4th-and-18) and Josh Allen had the worst quarterback fumble since Joe Pisarcik.

2026 NFL Stat Oddity: Week 7

NFL Stat Oddity 2026
~ Scott ~ 1 Comment

If I’m just being honest, the Sunday action wasn’t very good in the NFL, and the best game of Week 7 was on Thursday night between the Patriots and Bears. A refreshing display of two young quarterbacks playing well from the 2024 draft.

But I think I know why things felt off on Sunday. Despite it bringing the week’s count to nine games with a comeback opportunity, we only had one lead change in the fourth quarter, and that happened 24 seconds into the fourth quarter in Minnesota against the Colts.

We had a few other games where a fourth-quarter tie was broken, including an overtime game in Houston. But those games involved some funky coaching decisions where the home team got lucky in Detroit, and the Browns got away with an egregious false start on their game-winning drive.

Sunday’s two island games in Paris and SNF were also low on possessions, so they didn’t take long to get through, and the stats were depressed from both. That added to some of the malaise of the day. Not that I expect things to get any better on Monday night, but Tanner McKee lighting up Dallas would be entertaining at least.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Packers at Lions: Game of the Week (But Not Really)

This had the makings (and yardage) of a fun shootout. But in the end, it was a 20-17 tussle in the NFC North. The Packers started and ended their day with missed field goals, and the Lions had their first turnovers (that’s plural) since Week 1.

I don’t know if Tom Brady had money on the Lions and his presence in the building led to the Packers missing a 26-yard field goal and 35-yard field goal (blocked) as only the LOAT could conjure, but the Packers had another terrible day on special teams. At least Josh Jacobs looked good in his return, scoring a touchdown and putting up 55 receiving yards. Regular running game was still a bit stagnant (19 carries for 60 yards).

Jared Goff threw for 303 yards, 153 to Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Jameson Williams hogged both touchdowns on a day where tight end Sam LaPorta had just one catch for 18 yards.

But the game was sloppy, and you can question some of the coaching. The Packers were aggressive early with three conversions on fourth down, though when they went to the well one time too many, they came up empty before halftime on 4th-and-4. The only good news is Jahmyr Gibbs answered that stop with a red-zone fumble with 0:19 left in the second quarter.

But Dan Campbell is going to do Dan Campbell things on fourth down, and maybe that rubs off on Matt LaFleur in these matchups. Campbell failed on a 4th-and-5 at the Green Bay 6 late in the third quarter when a chip shot field goal could have given him a 20-14 lead.

After the Packers tied the game at 17, the Lions had another decision on 4th-and-1 at their own 24 with just under 5:00 left. Campbell went for it again, and Gibbs was stuffed for a 2-yard loss. That decision drew the most ire of any coaching decision on Sunday. The fourth-down models out there were reportedly split on it, so you know it’s close at the very least.

I think it was a mistake that ended up not costing Campbell because he got lucky that the special teams ended up blocking the 35-yard kick with 3:21 left.

If you look at the play the Lions ran, they would have been lucky to get a yard. So, let’s say you go for it and convert it. You’re still 75 yards away from the end zone. For all you know, you might be punting after the next three snaps and with less time left, making it less likely you see the ball again. But that’s the successful side, leaving you 75 yards away from the end zone with possession.

On the flip side, if you get stopped like they did, you’re making it far more likely that the Packers have easy access to a score to go up 20-17 or 24-17. Then you’d need a desperate scoring drive. But you’re gifting them that field position. You don’t know they’re going to screw it up and not get the field goal.

I don’t buy the reason that “Green Bay controls the clock” with that much time. Good luck to them if you think they can run out the clock and kick a last-second field goal against a team that has four clock stoppages left. The Lions were likely going to get another possession, and this was a 17-17 game; not a 31-31 efficient shootout. Teams were making mistakes here. It wasn’t a crisp day.

So, I would have been fine with a punt there. It ended up working out as the Lions had the ball back with 3:21 left at their own 25 anyway. It’s as if they got the yard and 90 seconds magically disappeared. One completion to LaPorta and a roughing penalty practically put them in field goal range, which just feels so easy to do anymore when you gotta have it.

A neutral zone infraction on Green Bay on 3rd-and-5 gave the Lions an automatic first down after the 2-minute warning, which really hurt. The Packers were going to let Gibbs score (he had -425 odds to do so too) as their last hope on third down, but he wisely took a dive. Might want to learn how to slide better because he risked a season-ending knee or ankle injury to do it.

The Lions made the 22-yard field goal to get the 20-17 win and move to 4-2, which still has them in third place in the division with the Vikings (6-0) and Bears (5-2). I still think Chicago should probably win this division again as the team with the best chance to show real growth over last year and be very good on both sides of the ball. The Packers and Lions showed some of their dumb tendencies in this one, and the Vikings have that dreadful offense that shouldn’t be this dreadful.

But these games are important in a division that is aiming for history with back-to-back years with everyone above .500.

Chiefs at Seahawks: Super Bowl-Esque If You Mean LV and LIX

Had last season gone better and the Chiefs returned to another Super Bowl to face the 2025 Seahawks, it may have looked like Sunday night but worse with Kenneth Walker on the other side. Even with Walker on their side, the 2026 Chiefs were held to a single field goal and did not reach the red zone once in a 20-3 loss that is just the fifth loss where the Chiefs trailed by double digits for the entire fourth quarter with Patrick Mahomes at quarterback.

Was it inevitable? Successful offensive minds like Kyle Shanahan (49ers), Josh McDaniels (Patriots), and Sean Payton (Broncos) have had their cracks at the Seahawks since the calendar turned to 2026 and things haven’t gone well for them either. The 2026 Seahawks are doing some historic things on defense again under Mike Macdonald, and the Chiefs went into this one without their best wideouts and without both starting offensive tackles.

About the only proven way to beat this Seattle team is to win the turnover battle and get short fields to score on that defense. Even when Washington scored 33 points this year, they were +3 in turnovers and had just one drive longer than 43 yards (it was a 60-yard touchdown drive). The 49ers got to 32 points in Seattle with a return score and touchdown drives of 11, 18, and 74 yards.

If you have to go the distance against this defense, you are probably screwed. On Sunday night, each offense only had eight drives, and both quarterbacks threw one bad pick for the only turnovers. However, Darnold’s pick in the end zone wasn’t returned far enough before halftime, and Harrison Butker was short on a 58-yard field goal. A bad sign for his leg strength.

That also means 25% of the Chiefs’ drives ended with a Butker miss as he was off again from 45 yards after a long drive with 8:33 left to play. That one would have made it 13-6 and possibly set up an interesting ending. Instead, the Seahawks drove for another touchdown with Emanuel Wilson breaking a 21-yard scoring run to go over 100 yards and outclass Walker on the night. That also means the Chiefs’ eighth and final drive came down 20-3 with 3:36 left. I would have put Justin Fields at quarterback at that point.

When the Seahawks aren’t turning the ball over, they’re golden. JSN is the most unstoppable wideout right now, and he was great again with 9/150/1 against all the corners the Chiefs could throw at him. Of course, the Chiefs hadn’t been tested by good WRs during their 5-0 start. Not one bit.

The Chiefs played the easiest portion of their schedule to get to 5-0. In their first big test of the season in terms of a Super Bowl contender, they failed miserably with one of the worst-played games of the Mahomes era.

  • The Seahawks were 11-of-16 on third down, converting seven times on 3rd-and-6+.
  • Seattle’s speed was not going to let Walker beat them; he had 18 touches for 57 yards and never gained more than 7 yards on any play.
  • Xavier “Kadarius Toney” Worthy failed miserably in another game as de-facto WR1 with 11 yards on 6 targets and a drop that left Mahomes visibly frustrated.
  • Mahomes was only credited with one sack, but it was on an odd-looking play where it looked like he wanted to do a quarterback draw and fumbled with a sandwich hit in the open field. Even if he pulled up and wanted to throw, no one was open on the play.

This should be the low point of the season for Kansas City’s offense, which should at least get Rashee Rice back next week for a more important game in Denver. It was always going to be tough to overcome this defense of a desperate team that lost two straight, and the Chiefs never came close to matching Seattle’s intensity.

But in terms of showcasing yourself as a Super Bowl contender again, this game feels like a major red flag on where the Chiefs are in 2026, and that’s not good enough. All the roster flaws were on full display, and it’s unlikely to get much better for them unless by some miracle Josh Simmons decides to play and Tyreek Hill signs on and is 75% of what he once was. That still leaves some serious issues with the pass rush and one idiot kicker who is washed.

If the Chiefs had to face the Seahawks in the Super Bowl, that would probably not go well either. When the Chiefs are playing musical chairs with their offensive tackles against a great defense, you simply can’t trust them to be anything short of a disaster. I’m not sure I can name a team that has succeeded in those circumstances, and the fact this happens this frequently for the Chiefs is the most troubling part of it all. Two Super Bowls, the last two games with Mahomes against Houston and Los Angeles in 2025, and now Sunday night.

If this game isn’t a wake-up call to Reid and Veach that the roster isn’t good enough, then nothing will be this year. They can’t just write this off to tough week on the road shorthanded. Because it’s going to happen again. And again. And again.

And they haven’t proven they can stop it.

Bengals at Ravens: Whoops, They Did It Again

Back so soon, Baltimore? It was just last week when I pointed out in the Cleveland loss how the Ravens are repeating so many of their greatest hits from losses of year’s past whether it’s the blown double-digit leads, the Derrick Henry-led running game disappearing, or Lamar Jackson being out with an injury.

If there wasn’t so much competition from the Chargers, Rams, and Texans, the Ravens (4-3) would be in the mix for the most disappointing team in the NFL this season. This team was a Super Bowl favorite in the AFC and it has a worse record than Todd Monken’s Browns (5-2) and John Harbaugh’s Giants (4-2-1) now.

People will say Jackson being out is the reason, but it’s so much bigger and systemic than that. Even his absence from injury is another issue as fans and some media members are catching on that Jackson will seemingly not play until he feels he’s 100%. You can debate if that’s the right move for his career or not, but just understand there are definitely some quarterbacks who would do more to push to play in a big game like this one. But not Jackson.

And after the latest blown double-digit lead (13-0 at halftime), the Ravens (4-3) are in last place in the AFC North with the Bengals getting the early tiebreaker edge over them. Who knows, Sunday might be the last time this season the Ravens were ahead of the Bengals in the AFC North standings.

Once again, this team had no problem taking a 13-0 lead into the half with Tyler Huntley significantly outplaying Joe Burrow. How often do you see Lamar throw for 215 yards on 21 passes in the first half of a game? Huntley did that here and he’s the lesser passer.

But the second half was a completely different story. Tee Higgins made huge catch after huge catch on the way to 148 yards and a touchdown. The Bengals ripped off five straight touchdown drives, including two that started in Baltimore territory after a turnover on downs and Huntley interception.

The Baltimore offense was again very complicit in the blown lead and loss. After moving the ball so well in the first half, the Ravens followed a three-and-out punt with an ill-advised 4th-and-2 incompletion at the Cincinnati 12 to start the fourth quarter. I probably would have kicked the field goal there to regain the lead given what we know about Cincinnati’s history of trailing in the fourth quarter with Burrow. But tight end Cuevas wasn’t even looking for the ball on a wasted possession.

That kind of sums up the Ravens in these games. Poor attention to detail, lack of focus, no leadership to lean on, bad coaching decisions, and a roster filled with stars who aren’t closers. Suddenly, they’re getting hit for big plays on defense and aiding the opponent with turnovers.

That’s how you become the third team to lead by 13+ points at halftime and still lose by 20+ points. Hadn’t been done since 1951.

Meanwhile, this is the second week in a row the Ravens pitched a first-half shutout, had the halftime lead and lost the game. That only happened one time ever to John Harbaugh and twice under Brian Billick’s watch. This is two weeks in a row just seven games into Jesse Minter’s tenure.

When Minter was in LA the last two years, the Chargers only blew two fourth-quarter leads. Sunday was technically not a fourth-quarter blown lead, but it was a third blown lead of 10+ points in the second half for Minter.

Harbaugh was the scapegoat for these losses. What happens now that he’s gone and things are only worse? You have to put the blame on the players and the person picking the players. That’s why I never felt good about saying it was Harbaugh when Baltimore’s issues year after year were players making critical errors at the worst times.

With Buffalo and Jacksonville up next, the Ravens are really at a tipping point in their season. Things could spiral out of control here if they don’t step up.

Steelers vs. Saints: Some Belle de Jour in Paris

The 16-10 final score in the NFL’s first regular-season game in Paris is extremely misleading. This game had just 13 total possessions between the Steelers (7) and Saints (6), and I didn’t even have to exclude any kneeldown-only drives to get that absurdly low number. Eight of the 13 drives had at least 11 plays to them, so this was a very offensive game despite the score.

Is 13 possessions a record low? No, the 2023 Raiders vs. Broncos season opener had 13 drives too, and it was really 12 when you remove a kneeldown before halftime. But 13 is definitely in record territory.

How did these teams sustain so many long drives despite only combining for two touchdowns and 26 points? There were many near-turnover opportunities as the Steelers came up empty on a few chances at fumble recoveries. They also dropped a pick early from Tyler Shough, though they got him on a big one to start the third quarter. The Saints also missed a 52-yard field goal early in the fourth quarter, and the Steelers took a late field goal off the board due to a game-ending penalty on the Saints. They ran out the clock instead.

I thought Aaron Rodgers played a very smart game, knowing when to check it down, when to go deep, and when to throw the ball at the feet of a receiver who was going to get blown up for a loss of yards or no gain. Shough wasn’t bad either with no running game to speak of (14 carries for 11 yards) while Jaylen Warren had another 101 rushing yards for the Steelers.

In the end, the better team won after the Steelers technically ran out the final 5:52 in a 16-10 final. The key play was Rodgers using his legs to gain 8 yards on a 3rd-and-6 scramble.

The Steelers are 5-2 with a shot for some revenge on Cleveland next week. The Saints fall to 2-5 in the NFC South.

49ers at Falcons: Injuries Catch Up to San Francisco

Maybe the Chiefs should take note of how the 49ers ran their offense through their running backs and tight ends in Atlanta because of all the injuries at wide receiver. Most notably, Mike Evans (Achilles) missed Sunday’s game, his first full game missed this season, and it had an impact thanks to Christian McCaffrey also temporarily leaving the game after a dominant start that helped the 49ers to a 14-3 lead.

Eventually, those injuries hurt the 49ers on their way to their first loss of 2026. Down 19-14 in scoring territory in the third quarter, Brock Purdy forced a pass that was intercepted by Jessie Bates. Even though the Falcons started at their own 10, they put together a 90-yard march that ended with Drake London’s first touchdown of the season (finally) to take a 26-14 lead.

Purdy was then sacked on a 4th-and-10 at the Atlanta 23 as the Falcons racked up two sacks, two picks, and also forced George Kittle to fumble in the final minute of this one. You may have thought a huge Bijan Robinson day would be the path to an upset for Atlanta, but he rushed 20 times for just 63 yards. He did have 5 catches for 59 yards, and Penix threw three touchdowns while taking no sacks and throwing no picks.

The 49ers were able to get the ball back in a 26-20 game with 4:02 left and the ball at midfield. But Purdy never saw the defender for another huge interception with 2:34 left. The Falcons ran the ball three times and added an insurance field goal to go up 29-20.

The 49ers need to get Evans and Deebo back ASAP as it hasn’t been a good six quarters without them going back to the Washington game.

Colts at Vikings: At Least They Didn’t Blow a 33-Point Lead Again

Four years ago, Jeff Saturday’s Colts infamously blew a record 33-0 lead in Minnesota. In 2026, I’m not sure the Vikings can even score over 33 points like that nor will they need to with the way Brian Flores’ defense is performing.

The Colts led for most of the game with Jonathan Taylor’s 38-yard touchdown run on their opening drive. But they struggled to add to it, and the Vikings were down 10-6 in the fourth quarter before Kyler Murray threw a go-ahead touchdown to tight end T.J. Hockenson.

The Colts had nearly the full quarter to answer, but they followed a punt with a missed 48-yard field goal with 4:22 left as kicking has been an issue ever since Adam Vinatieri retired. Meanwhile, a Minnesota kicker actually made a clutch kick from 52 yards to give the Vikings a 6-point lead, which I normally hate. But in the context of facing Daniel Jones, it’s probably fine. Jones had 64 net passing yards on 28 pass plays in this one.

Jones had 94 seconds to lead a touchdown drive, but it lasted two snaps before he threw a pick right to Harrison Smith to end the threat. That’s how the Vikings get to 6-0 and the NFL’s last remaining perfect record. Hard to believe it’s them.

You’d like to see the offense getting better as Murray had his full receiving corps, and the Colts have been one of the worst defenses this season. But a paltry 16 points at home with Murray throwing for 150 yards was enough to get another win.

The real test is next week in Detroit for this team.

Rams at Raiders: If McVay Blew a 28-3 Lead Here…

The Rams scored four straight touchdowns to end the first half as they led 28-3. They basically did whatever they wanted offensively with three touchdown passes from Matthew Stafford, and both running backs topped 90 yards and a score on the ground.

Kirk Cousins hadn’t done much of anything when it was 28-6 going into the fourth quarter. But the Raiders strung together a couple of touchdowns after getting a deflected pick. This could have been a one-score game if they didn’t fail on both two-point conversions in the quarter, so it remained a 28-18 game with 13:12 left. Plenty of time.

If Sean McVay was going to blow a 28-3 lead to this team, he might as well hang it up in Los Angeles. But the Rams had a vintage drive to put it away that consumed almost half the quarter before another touchdown run by Blake Corum. The Raiders got a field goal (35-21) and the Rams ran out the final 4:10.

I don’t know if the Rams (3-4) are necessarily back, but it was a much-needed win to end the slide. Meanwhile, the Raiders continue to be exposed for their lack of weapons at WR and pieces on defense outside of Maxx Crosby. They might still think they’re competing for a wild card berth, but I’d start thinking about starting Fernando Mendoza and let the rookie shake out the growing pains to help him along for 2027.

Broncos at Cardinals: Bo Nix Does His Tim Tebow Thing Early in the Game

I find it funny how Bo Nix gets dinged for playing poor football for three quarters before going off in the fourth quarter. That’s what John Elway did for so many years and Denver fans loved it, and Tim Tebow was taking it to a crazier level in that 2011 season.

But Nix had a better game against a lesser Arizona defense this time, and he did something different in this one. He saw the opening for a long scramble that turned into a 62-yard touchdown run to take a 13-6 lead in the second quarter. Even Tebow and Elway never did that in the NFL.

Nix finished with an 80.3 QBR, though I can only imagine how high it’d be if that was a third-down scramble in the fourth quarter instead of a 2nd-and-7 play in the second quarter.

But that changed the complexion of the game, and R.J. Harvey took a short pass 52 yards for a touchdown in the third quarter for another big play to help Denver not have to rely on the fourth quarter this week. The Cardinals had the ball at the 1-yard line with first-and-goal at the 2-minute warning in a 30-16 game, so they were still going to need to recover an onside kick to make this interesting. But they couldn’t even get the first touchdown after an impressive goal-line stand by Denver to end this one.

Giants at Texans: Your First-Place New York Football Giants

With a division title a real possibility, I applaud John Harbaugh for sticking with J.J. McCarthy after his almost comeback last week from a 34-10 deficit. We all know what Jameis Winston is (and what he isn’t) by now, so why not see what you really have with McCarthy?

“Nine” didn’t disappoint either. He had two touchdown drives and the Giants missed two field goals in the first half alone as he hit 9-of-10 passes to start the day with a third-down drop by Malik Nabers thrown in there too. He was feeling it, because the Houston defense is no longer elite.

It’s not even good at this point, and I have a hard time understanding why when it’s still DeMeco Ryans’ scheme, and they haven’t been decimated by injuries like you’d expect to see drag a unit down. They just gave up 252 yards through the air to McCarthy, and the Giants also rushed for 188 yards, which proved critical in overtime.

It’s truly one of the most disappointing losses in franchise history after an impressive shootout win over Jacksonville in London a week ago. The Texans came home, they were a 10.5-point favorite, and they laid an egg. Sure, C.J. Stroud didn’t have any turnovers, Marvin Harrison Jr. caught his first touchdown, and Tank Dell even contributed a 43-yard catch on a deflected ball for his first action since a gruesome knee injury in December 2024.

But once again, offensive competency was not enough for the Texans, who forced overtime with a late touchdown drive. But the Giants won the coin toss and decided to kick, which I still think is the right strategy most of the time. Let Houston be bound by conservative three-down football and give the loose cannon McCarthy four downs to answer if he needs a do-or-die score.

It didn’t come to that. The Texans didn’t gain a yard on three plays for a quick punt, and McCarthy just had to complete one 9-yard pass to Nabers before his running game did the rest. Cam Skattebo broke off a 42-yard run, and he even slid to make sure he wouldn’t fumble the ball in another overtime after that got him effectively benched last week. Then they put Devin Singletary, the former Texans back, in the game and he finished them off with a 30-yard touchdown run to end it. No field goal shenanigans.

Just like that, the deflated Texans are 2-5 and feeling hopeless again while the Giants (4-2-1) lead the NFC East as the only team with a winning record in the division.

Browns at Titans: Another Predator Sequel in the Fourth Quarter

At this point, I swear Deshaun Watson is purposely playing like ass early to set up opportunities for game-winning drives late to endear himself to the fans. At least he threw for over 300 yards in this one. Nice defense, Saleh.

Even though Tony Pollard had a monster day (129 yards, 3 TD), it wasn’t enough for the Titans. Probably should have seen the warning flags early when their 14-0 lead was built on two touchdown drives that covered a total of 89 yards. The offense didn’t score again until the fourth quarter but at least Cam Ward was able to lead tying field goal and touchdown drives.

But with the game tied 24-24 in the final minute, Watson had the ball at his 45 with just 0:28 left when maybe the most controversial play of the game happened. Cleveland’s right tackle got away with an egregious false start that wasn’t called, and Harold Fannin took the short pass 36 yards to set up the winning field goal from 32 yards on the final snap.

I don’t know how you can miss that one, and I don’t know how there isn’t some mechanism in place in the final 2:00 whether it’s replay assist or being able to challenge something so obvious and game changing. Maybe the Browns take the 5-yard penalty and still hit a pass to kick the winning field goal, but that play should not have counted.

The Browns are 5-2, but I still see no reason to believe in them as a real contender. They slum it with the worst teams and are blowing through their clutch wins before Halloween.

Buccaneers at Panthers: The NFC South Is Destined to Suck

I really do hate this division, because once you start to think a team is figuring things out like Carolina, they just shit the bed their next game. This division produces some unseemly blowouts out of nowhere too like how we saw Carolina win 34-3 in Atlanta in Week 2.

But Sunday was an embarrassment at home for the Panthers and Bryce Young, who took five sacks and had three turnovers, including a fumble returned for a touchdown to make it 17-0 in the second quarter.

Baker Mayfield returned for Tampa Bay, but they could have won this game with a blindfolded Blaine Gabbert if they had to. Mayfield finished just 7-of-11 for 64 yards and a touchdown. The Buccaneers, who rushed for over 250 yards, are the ninth team in the modern era (second since 1979) to score at least 43 points with no more than 65 net passing yards.

I know division games can be weird, but 43-13? Back to the drawing board for the Panthers (3-3), who have a quick turnaround with Green Bay on Thursday night.

Dolphins at Jets: Crack Open the Faygo, 2008 Lions and 2017 Browns

Leave it up to the Jets to let the 2026 Dolphins get their first win in Week 7. The Stooges of the AFC East take care of their own so that the bottom isn’t rock bottom in the NFL. Not that I ever thought Miami was going to seriously challenge 0-17, but they won’t be joining the 2008 Lions and 2017 Browns as the only teams to go 0-16 or worse.

Miami’s offense had by far its best game of the season with rookie Caleb Douglas catching two touchdowns, Ollie Gordon rushed for 103 yards and a touchdown, and a huge sack of Geno Smith on third down forced a field goal in the fourth quarter when the Jets were 3 yards away from the tying touchdown. Miami added another long touchdown to Douglas, and then they were able to run out the final 3:17 on the clock to not give the Jets another chance in a 28-25 game.

In fact, it was a bit ballsy to go quarterback run on 4th-and-1 at the New York 49 with 2:00 left. If you get stopped there, the Jets are a first down away from game-tying field goal range. But Willis picked it up and the game was over. Miami finally has a win.

Next Week

Not crazy about Panthers-Packers on TNF after Sunday’s games. But it beats seeing another NFC East matchup. I think we get a break this week from the 9:30 AM games even with the clock turning back an hour.

The big 1 PM game should be Ravens-Bills, but how can we take anyone’s word for it that Lamar Jackson will actually play? If he’s “not close” to 100%, then I doubt we see him at this point as Baltimore’s season falls apart. Otherwise, Vikings at Lions is a good one that could finally hand the Vikings a loss. But I’ll be mostly watching Browns at Steelers in that slot.

Chargers at Rams is the LA Disappointment Bowl. Chiefs at Broncos is a lot more interesting now. Chiefs could very well lose that one too for similar reasons to Seattle game. Eagles-Commanders is more NFC East bullshit in prime time on Sunday night. Hate they didn’t flex that out. Chicago at Seattle could be very interesting on MNF. Another chance for Ben Johnson to show his value against a defense that many of his top peers have floundered against.

2026 NFL Stat Oddity: Week 6

NFL Stat Oddity 2026
~ Scott ~ 2 Comments

Some people are letting Week 6 upsets lead them to believe the NFL is rigged. Sunday certainly had a lot of weird fantasy/betting results in terms of who was putting up the yards and touchdowns. I won’t dispute that fact after my new betting strategy failed miserably in its first weekend.

But as for the outcomes on the scoreboard, let’s not forget divisional games are often weird. The Cardinals beating the Rams and the winless Titans beating the Cols on the road are both divisional upsets. Those teams know each other better than most, and the Rams were dealing with a new coach (Mike LaFleur) who was Sean McVay’s offensive coordinator the last three seasons.

Still, the Arizona Cardinals having more wins at SoFi Stadium than the Rams and Chargers combined after Week 6 sounds fake as hell. Not rigged, because who in the world would want to produce these standings?

It’s also true that a lot of games are close this season as we had 10-of-13 games with a comeback opportunity this week. Four more teams blew a double-digit lead, bringing the season total to 17 in just six weeks. Some teams can’t seem to get out of their own way in crunch time while others are thriving as the Bills and Browns are both 4-1 at game-winning drive opportunities behind rookie head coaches.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Texans vs. Jaguars: Game of the Week

Guess I slept on most of one of the best international games the NFL has ever produced. I figured this would be a good one and I had the Texans winning it, but I did not expect both quarterbacks to throw for over 300 yards, 3 touchdowns, and take no sacks. Both threw a pick in the end zone, but that just added to the intrigue and late-game strategy in what was really the last stand for Houston competing in the AFC South after that 0-4 start.

But we saw Marvin Harrison Jr. make an instant impact with three catches for 34 yards. Not huge numbers but pretty good for him in his first game. We also saw Travis Hunter living up to that two-way draft potential with a touchdown catch followed by an interception on back-to-back drives in the fourth quarter. Impressive player.

Both of these teams have struggled giving up yardage to wide receivers. They came in ranked No. 32 (Jaguars) and No. 30 (Texans) in that area, and it didn’t get better in this game even if Nico Collins and Parker Washington didn’t dominate. The other players stepped up.

Houston was always better than its 0-4 record as the offense has been better than expected, but the vaunted defense blew three leads in the fourth quarter. This could have easily been a fourth as the Jaguars did rally back from a 31-21 deficit to tie the game with 1:55 left after Cam Little’s 60-yard field goal.

About that tying drive…Is it almost a curse to have a kicker with great range in today’s NFL? I think in the past, a team facing a 4th-and-4 with the prospects of a 60-yard field goal would have gone for it. The Jaguars still had three timeouts too, so it was possible to get the ball back if they were stopped. Also possible if the kick was missed. But that used to be such a tough kick, and someone like Little makes it look routine now.

But I think if Liam Coen wanted to go for that one, he would have been justified. They still may very well have ended the drive with a tying field goal, but at least they would have used more clock and made the likelihood of overtime greater.

Instead, the Texans had a full 1:49 to work with, and they milked it for all its worth. A couple of short passes to Woody Marks was enough to get into field goal range, and the Texans worked the clock beautifully to set up the 49-yard field goal as the very final play. No shenanigans like last week in giving the Jaguars a chance to get Little in position as he could probably hit from 70 if he had to.

Very good win for the Texans, who I think are still dangerous at 2-4. I think they’re better than some of the 4-2 teams right now. But they have to get on a run like they did last year, and the defense clearly isn’t as good as it was in 2024-25. Though, if Stroud can keep playing like this – he’s getting Tank Dell back this week too – then they have a shot for the playoffs.

Cardinals at Rams: Super (Disappointing) Team

The Rams were a 12.5-point favorite in this one. It’s not like we haven’t seen Sean McVay’s team blow a game as a big favorite before. He’s only done it more than anyone since 2017.

But this felt different. The Cardinals seemed to not respect the Rams’ offense and blitzed Stafford effectively. He struggled to get to 200 yards late in the game. No matter what you think about the kicking situation in LA, there’s no excuse for this offense to have one touchdown on nine drives as they trailed 15-9 late into the fourth quarter.

Just continuous sloppy play by the Rams, whether it was a Tyler Higbee fumble in scoring territory, or a false start penalty that led to Stafford trying to throw a screen on 4th-and-8 (?) in the final minutes.

But Puka Nacua did make a 43-yard catch that got the offense going, and Colby Parkinson’s 6-yard touchdown put the Rams ahead 16-15 after the punter (Evans) made the extra point after lightweight kicker Blake Grupe tore his ACL trying to make a tackle on a kickoff earlier in the game.

However, Parkinson being ruled a touchdown instead of inches short was probably a blessing in disguise for the Cardinals. We just covered a late-game scenario in Jaguars vs. Texans where you could argue the Jaguars should have gone for the fourth down to not leave so much time for Houston.

I really think the NFL has changed a lot in the last few years with kickers getting even more range (K-balls help, I guess), and the new kickoff rules promote both a shorter field after a touchback (35) and more longer returns are possible now. It’s just not that hard to set up a long field goal and make it these days.

In this situation, the Cardinals were out of timeouts with 52 seconds left. The Rams faced 2nd-and-3 at the Arizona 6, so they could get a first down without the touchdown too. I’m not advocating that a team should take a knee and run clock here, or that Parkinson should have purposely came up inches short to run the clock. You take the touchdown when you can, but at the same time, you can call plays that dictate how possible that touchdown is too.

Given the clock and timeout situations for both teams, I think the Rams scoring on second down was costly. Sure enough, without a real kicker to handle the kickoff, the Rams kicked a touchback and the Cardinals were at their 35 with 47 seconds left. Maybe not the greatest situation to be in, but not a bad one for a 12.5-point underdog as they only needed a field goal.

And it took a single play to get into range after a 21-yard completion with a bullshit 15-yard penalty tacked on for the hit that was unavoidable. Just like that, the Cardinals were at the 29. After three runs to burn the Rams’ timeouts and get a little closer, the Cardinals made the 43-yard field goal to drop the Rams to 2-4 and last place in the NFC West.

Jacoby Brissett is now just 7-27 (.206) at 4QC opportunities, but that’s a memorable upset for him and the Cardinals. Just another regrettable loss for the Rams, who are quickly falling apart as they don’t have a kicker and they lost Davante Adams (hamstring) for 6-10 weeks.

I don’t feel confident that the Rams can rebound from this, because the super team we were promised on paper never existed. The Rams never took the field this season in a game with Myles Garrett, Aaron Donald, and Trent McDuffie (out Sunday) all active.

That’s still no excuse for blowing these games against the Broncos, Bills, and Cardinals the way they did. It’s almost like by sharing a stadium, the curse of the Chargers has consumed the Rams now.

Ramming.

Ravens at Browns: The Old Familiar Sting

Sunday was nothing new for the Ravens as you can take your pick of past headlines from their games and apply it to this 13-10 loss in Cleveland:

  • With Lamar Jackson out, the Ravens lost another low-scoring game in Cleveland.
  • Baltimore blew another 10-point lead after halftime, adding to their league lead since 2018.
  • Young kicker Tyler Loop had another key miss from 49 yards away that could have made it a 10-point game with a quarter to play.
  • Derrick Henry had another costly fumble in the fourth quarter, which led to a 35-yard game-tying touchdown drive for the Browns.
  • The defense was flagged for DPI on third down to extend Cleveland’s drive for a touchdown too.
  • Unable to close offensively, the Ravens went three-and-out on their last two drives.
  • Deshaun Watson hit a 33-yard pass to Jerry Jeudy on a 3rd-and-5, leading to the game-winning field goal instead of getting the offense off the field for Baltimore.

Jesse Minter’s commitment to the Harbaugh bit is something else. Meanwhile, Todd Monken may not be getting great efficiency out of Watson, who threw for 164 yards after taking 5 sacks. But he’s getting timely plays out of him, and the defense has been better than expected after trading Myles Garrett to the Rams.

I still think the Browns are fool’s gold at 4-2, but they are at least finding ways to win games that the Ravens keep finding ways to lose.

Steelers at Buccaneers: The Rodgers-McCarthy Comeback You’ve Never Seen Before

I used to annually grill Aaron Rodgers and Mike McCarthy for a decade in Green Bay where they would almost never have the sort of comeback win they had together on Sunday in Tampa Bay for the Steelers.

In Green Bay, there was just one game where Rodgers and McCarthy won after the Packers trailed by double digits in the fourth quarter. It was in the opener to their final season together (2018) against the Bears when they were down 20-3 before winning 24-23.

On Sunday, the Steelers looked horrible for three quarters, especially on offense and special teams. Rodgers was taking sacks, he narrowly avoided a pick-six (dropped), and kicker Chris Boswell seems broken. They were fortunate to be playing an undrafted rookie quarterback in Jalon Daniels instead of a veteran like Baker Mayfield.

But everything changed after the first play of the fourth quarter after Rodgers, trailing 16-3, drilled a pass to D.K. Metcalf for 17 yards to convert 3rd-and-16. From there, it was all Steelers. Daniels threw a pick, the Steelers settled for a field goal, then Boswell redeemed himself with a 58-yard field goal to tie the game. Jamel Dean, the former Buc, picked off Daniels to set up a 20-yard field goal after the Steelers failed to punch it in from the 1.

Again even a rookie quarterback was able to start from his 35 with 1:21 left and easily got the game-tying field goal that forced overtime. I agree with the decision for Tampa to go on defense first. Hope you sack Rodgers and end a drive, so you only need a field goal to win. Then if you give up a touchdown as they did, at least you’re giving Daniels four downs to work with the whole field. No disagreement in strategy there.

But the Steelers did get that touchdown as Germie Bernard capped off his big day with his first touchdown. He should be the WR2 as I saw more out of him in one preseason game than what Roman Wilson has done in Pittsburgh. But the injuries to Michael Pittman Jr. and Wilson opened the door for Bernard on Sunday, and he was very good. Like a Randall Cobb type for Rodgers.

Daniels needed a touchdown. He was able to overcome one 4th-and-9 with a scramble, but on 4th-and-8 at midfield, a well-timed blitz led to the second sack of the day for Jalen Ramsey to end the game.

This is the first time since the 2002 AFC Wild Card vs. Cleveland that the Steelers won after trailing by 13 points in the fourth quarter. Yes, the Tommy Maddox vs. Kelly Holcomb shootout. Yes, that also means Ben Roethlisberger never did this in his HOF career despite having more overall comebacks than Rodgers. Sure, he did put the team on top in a playoff game against Jacksonville after trailing by 18 points in the fourth, but the Steelers found ways to blow his big comeback attempts.

The Steelers get one behind Rodgers and they’re 4-2 before heading to Paris to take on the Saints. It’s the kind of comeback I certainly didn’t expect from Rodgers and McCarthy after seeing how bad this game was for 45 minutes. But they got it done.

Bears at Falcons: Caleb Williams’ Big Return

It looks like Ben Johnson’s offense works just fine when he’s playing non-NFC North defenses. Caleb Williams returned and had a 30-of-36 for 305 yards passing game that is more akin to the kind of offense you want to see from this team. One where Luther Burden (95 yards) and Colston Loveland (65 yards and a touchdown) are leading the way over Kalif Raymond. They also needed this from Caleb after the running game was mostly contained (29 carries for 95 yards).

But even though the Bears took a 31-7 lead on the first play of the fourth quarter, they had to sweat this one out a little. The Falcons attempted what would have been the first 8+8+8 comeback in NFL history and got two-thirds of the way there thanks to the offense coming to life and forcing a fumble in between scores.

Johnson’s vaunted offense was faltering and the Bears went three-and-out again. Michael Penix had plenty of time with 3:34 left. But in typical Atlanta fashion, a holding penalty changed a first down into a 3rd-and-16, and he was strip-sacked with 2:54 left. The Bears gained two first downs and ran out the clock to escape with the win that was sweatier than it needed to be.

Chargers at Chiefs: Is Kansas City Great or Are the Chargers This Terrible?

The Chiefs improved to 5-0 with a 22-6 win over the now 0-6 Chargers that left a lot of fans wondering just how good this team is, or just how bad the Chargers really are.

The Chiefs could certainly be accused of “playing with their food” in this one as Andy Reid was conservative, kicking three times on 4th down with 1-2 yards to go inside opponent territory. The red zone was a struggle as Patrick Mahomes threw an interception (his only real mistake of the game) while trying to throw a ball away under pressure, and Kenneth Walker was stuffed on a 4th-and-1 run at the goal line as that’s the one area he pales in comparison to 2024-25 Kareem Hunt. It also took the Chiefs deep into the game before finally getting their first sack since Week 1 against an amateur offensive line.

Kansas City also brought back the “obligatory fumble” on a bad special teams play with a fumbled punt after Remigo went backwards on what would have been fantastic field position for the Chiefs in the third quarter. Harrison Butker also missed a field goal and extra point. Vintage 2018-22 “We can only beat ourselves” Chiefs are back.

But in a league where 10 of the 13 games this week were so close in the fourth quarter, you have to give the Chiefs credit for playing underwhelming, sometimes stupid football and still winning 22-6. Keep in mind the Chargers were 0-5 at comeback opportunities this season, yet they trailed by at least 13 points for the entire second half in this one.

That’s pretty good for a Kansas City team that was missing its two best wide receivers and playing most of the game with two backup offensive tackles. It was also a good showing for Xavier Worthy (caught all 7 targets for 73 yards) and rookie Cyrus Allen had a nice 23-yard catch from Mahomes that looked like they’ve been doing this for a long time.

But the Chiefs will get a tougher test in Seattle in prime time. That will give us a much better idea of where this team is as a Super Bowl contender this season. Still, beating the Dolphins and Chargers by solid margins without playing that well is an encouraging sign.

Titans at Colts: The One That Got Chris Ballard Fired

Full disclosure: I was a legitimate Colts fan from 2002-2019. They were my second-favorite team behind the Steelers, and it was because they played a different brand of football (pass heavy and all the dramatic comebacks), Peyton Manning was my favorite player, then they drafted a generational talent in Andrew Luck in 2012.

When Luck retired, my interest waned, and it was replaced by the way the Chiefs were playing with Patrick Mahomes. The difference is I’m not a Chiefs fan; I’m a Mahomes fan. That means I technically have to root for the Chiefs to do well so that he does well, but I will never say I’m a Chiefs fan in the way that I was content with my fandom for the Colts for two decades.

With that said, the Colts became irrelevant to me once Luck retired. They weren’t fun to watch anymore with their annual acquisition of a washed quarterback, and I think going for Carson Wentz, one of my whipping boys, in 2021 really was the final nail in the coffin for my fandom.

The Colts have really done nothing since Luck retired too except embarrass themselves. Sunday was maybe the lowest point yet after they blew a 13-0 lead at home to the winless Titans. That was enough to finally get GM Chris Ballard fired after a brutal tenure.

Even when the Titans win, it still feels like a loss for Cam Ward as he threw for just 102 yards in the game. The Titans took the lead in the fourth quarter on a blocked punt for a touchdown, which sounds exactly like the kind of touchdown you’d expect in a game between these teams.

But the Colts failed to come back late, and they’re 2-4 and irrelevant to the season just as they have been for years. They’re turning into the Titans on a level of “Who Gives a Fvck?” and that’s sad to see for a franchise that used to be a huge source of entertainment for me.

Bills at Raiders: Not Ready for the Big Boys

The Raiders’ 3-0 start always felt a bit fraudulent since it came against the Dolphins, Chargers, and Saints. Two of those teams are still winless too. The Raiders haven’t won ever since Klint Kubiak said “we’re going to win the game” at halftime against the Chiefs. They lost that game by 3, got clobbered in New England, and now lost a 33-30 game at home to the Bills.

I think Kubiak is going to have them moving in the right direction, and they can be a force if Fernando Mendoza is the real deal, giving Kubiak a quarterback with mobility that Kirk Cousins just lacks. They also need to find some more defenders as it’s really a one-man show with Maxx Crosby.

But this game is just another sign that the Raiders aren’t quite ready to beat the big boys in the AFC. It also is another sign that the Bills don’t have a Super Bowl-caliber defense. Another 33-30 game, another one where they blew a 10-point lead and had to get another  touchdown to break a tie.

Allen becomes the 10th fastest (149 games) and fourth youngest QB to 30 game-winning drives (playoffs included).

NFL Quarterbacks with 30 Game-winning Drives (GWD)

However, I’m also not convinced the Bills are improving in the passing game. There is way too much reliance on off-script plays from Josh Allen, and that drive that ended with his long shovel pass touchdown was a great example of how so much of this offense is fishing for flags right now. The Raiders were penalized twice on Allen incompletions on that drive, including a 3rd-and-9 that would have been a three-and-out.

I’m not sure D.J. Moore is the magic cure here either when he returns. They just need to find more ways of getting guys open and throwing on time. What they’re doing is working for now, but I don’t see the defense getting better, and I think they’ll find it tougher when they aren’t playing teams with their heads up their ass like the two Los Angeles teams, or a Raiders team that just lacks the real talents at WR and defense.

The Bills are just scraping by to win shootouts in September and October, but that doesn’t present much confidence for a winning streak in January and actually playing in February for a change.

Cowboys at Packers: The Game That Wouldn’t End

I’ve seen some slogs on SNF, but this one takes the cake. I agree with Cris Collinsworth that the first quarter was exciting with both defenses going aggressive to force mistakes. But after that, it was so clear that the Packers were the better team, Dak Prescott didn’t bring his A game, and the Cowboys were just never really in the game. A far cry from 40-40 overtime tie no matter how many flags the refs tried to throw to keep this alive.

The Cowboys are a poorly-coached team with a rubbish defense, and the Packers are finally hitting their stride with Christian Watson and Matthew Golden leading the way for Jordan Love in the passing game. Golden had 6/104/1 and it could have easily been more if he could catch a few he dropped.

The Packers simply own Dallas and have done so for the last 15 years.

Saints at Giants: J.J. McCarthy Leads One of the Greatest Almost Comebacks in NFL History?

I like a good “almost comeback” story in the NFL.

In Week 2 of the 1992 season, the Giants were down 34-0 to the Dallas Cowboys in the third quarter. The Giants scored four touchdowns to make it 34-28, but when they got the ball back with 3:42 left, they went three-and-out and punted it back with 2:07 left. Dallas, which would go on to win the Super Bowl that year, ran out the clock. Bummer, as that would have been the biggest comeback in NFL history if the Giants pulled it off.

That’s my go-to game for the best almost comeback in NFL history, so Sunday’s result wasn’t even the best one in Giants history. Still, what a crazy finish after the Saints, who always seem to give the Giants problems, were up 34-10 with 11:31 left.

  • J.J. McCarthy entered the game for a struggling Jameis Winston and promptly threw a pick too.
  • But the Saints fumbled two plays later, so McCarthy, or “Nine” got the ball back with 9:31 left.
  • More than half the quarter was gone before the Giants finally scored a touchdown with a 2PC with 7:00 left to make it 34-18.
  • The Saints were a bit dumb in throwing two incomplete passes to stop the clock and punt it back after a 65-second possession.
  • McCarthy was throwing deep YOLO passes and made it work for another quick touchdown drive, and this time the 2PC failed. It was 34-24 with 5:06 left.
  • The Saints again went three-and-out on a quick possession.
  • McCarthy led a drive that saw him spike the ball with 2:08 left at the 23 to get a 41-yard field goal (34-27). Interesting decision to save the two-minute warning with the Giants down to two timeouts.
  • The Giants kicked deep, and even though the Saints wisely returned it to use up the 2MW stoppage, they still ran it three times and punted.
  • McCarthy had 57 seconds to drive 71 yards for the potential tie or win, and he got things started with a 28-yard scramble.
  • After two more completions and some spikes, the Giants faced 4th-and-1 and were 14 yards away from the end zone. The rally came up short after McCarthy’s pass to Likely fell incomplete, ending what would have been an insane comeback from an unlikely hero.

Nine threw for 243 yards despite only playing part of the fourth quarter. With Jaxson Dart done for the season and Jameis Winston not playing the most inspiring football, I almost think you should just start McCarthy and see what happens.

Panthers at Eagles: It’s Truly Over in Philadelphia

The bigger news than this game is that Jalen Hurts has several blood clots in his lungs and his season is over with his career a question mark. I had a pulmonary embolism in 2016, and my main symptom when I knew things weren’t right was a fast heartbeat at rest and an impending sense of doom. The latter is a real medical symptom.

An impending sense of doom is apt for the 2026 Eagles as it’s never been more over for a team after their fourth-straight loss. Bryce Young and the Panthers played well on the road, and backup Tanner McKee had his shot in a 19-14 game with 9:32 left. But one bad snap doomed the drive right away, setting up a 2nd-and-22 and another three-and-out before the Panthers added an insurance score following the Eagles’ 8-yard punt. Yikes.

Hurts will take blood thinners, which I was on for nine years before getting my doctors to agree I could stop in 2025. Other athletes, including Victor Wembanyama, have been able to continue playing after a DVT clot, so I wouldn’t write off Hurts just yet.

But I really think the negative fallout from how this was handled and the way the Eagles are falling apart here is going to get someone canned, and head coach Nick Sirianni feels like a good candidate for that as I’m not sure what he really does for the team anyway. He’s always been a coordinator merchant.

It’s a good thing the Eagles won that Super Bowl in 2024, because that era is over. Windows don’t stay open for long in this league.

Jets at Patriots: Trivial AFC East Scrimmage

The Patriots continued heating up on offense against A.J. Brown’s best wishes as he had drops in his return to action. But Drake Maye threw three touchdowns without taking a sack, and Geno Smith had a costly pick in the fourth quarter when the Jets were down 23-13 and across midfield.

The Patriots nearly ran out the final half of the quarter before settling for a short field goal to make it 26-16. The Jets tacked on a field goal with 32 seconds left, but they weren’t able to get the onside kick and this one was over.

New England (4-2) is still right there behind the Bills (5-1) in the AFC East. Once again, the Jets (2-4) and Dolphins don’t matter (0-5). But two stooges aren’t as bad as Three Stooges.

Next Week

Patriots-Bears is a nice TNF matchup with young quarterbacks. I guess I’ll have to set the alarm early for Sunday with the Steelers and Saints in Paris, and the NFL picked about the worst week possible for that game to be there.

The 1 PM slate is all about Bengals-Ravens, but that’s not a very good game if Lamar Jackson can’t go. Might be Cincinnati’s year in the AFC North if they get to play Tyler Huntley (again).

Green Bay at Detroit is carrying the late window. Good game there. Chiefs at Seahawks is not quite as good as it would have looked a few weeks ago, but I can’t wait to see what plan Macdonald has for Kenneth Walker. Might be the first time you see a team truly take him away and make Mahomes try to win with those wideouts and tackles. Good chess match.

Dallas at Philly on MNF? Yuck, I think I’d rather watch an obscure British comedy series on Tubi or another Carrie remake I haven’t seen yet. Fvck the NFC East bias.

2026 NFL Stat Oddity: Week 5

NFL Stat Oddity 2026
~ Scott ~ 3 Comments

Week 5 was just one of those NFL weeks where the island games had insane endings to cover up for a pretty bland Sunday afternoon. After consecutive weeks with 12 games with a comeback opportunity, blowouts were up a little on Sunday, though we did still finish with 10 such games in Week 5.

But I think Week 5 brought out the worst this season in coaching decisions, starting with Todd Bowles not kicking that field goal on Thursday night in Dallas. That game shouldn’t have been that close. London shouldn’t have ended the way it did with the Jaguars getting a walk-off field goal after a long kick return.

The Commanders-Giants game ending in a tie was absolute batshit and incompetence from a variety of people. The anticipated Seahawks-49ers game was deceptively high scoring as terrible ball security led to a ton of points from short fields. Then a dropped pass and questionable ruling on the field on the final play ended that one.

To cap it off on Monday night, Joe Brady and Sean McVay showed us why neither should be coaching at the Super Bowl this season. I’ve already led with this one week this season, but I’m really stunned at the lack of growth for this year’s Super Bowl contenders:

  • The Rams still suck miserably on special teams and it’s killing them at 2-3.
  • The Bills are even worse on defense and more reckless on offense under Brady and Jim Leonhard. A lucky 4-1 start.
  • The Seahawks are showing that 4-game run without a giveaway to end 2025 was a fluke outlier.
  • The Broncos still can’t score in the first three quarters.
  • Do you really trust the Jaguars or Vikings to win in January? Too bad you can’t combine Detroit’s offense with Minnesota’s defense.

That’s why I do like the concept of a Chiefs vs. 49ers rematch in February. Kenneth Walker is a new wrinkle. Mike Evans is a new wrinkle. These teams know how to win in the playoffs, and there’s no one in their conference they can’t beat this year. Alas, injuries can undo everything (maybe already did for the Chiefs; we’ll see) and we have a long way to go still.

But Bills-Rams was a grandiose display of just how little we’ve come from last season.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Bills at Rams: Game of the Week

The Rams and Bills started the week with the best odds to win the Super Bowl, and they ended the week in the same position. However, I think Monday night’s 37-34 overtime final was proof that we shouldn’t trust either one of these teams to be there in February as they continue making the same stupid mistakes.

The first half was pure subversion. Josh Allen threw for 60 yards (40 on one short toss to Ty Johnson) and a pick. Puka Nacua looked like he was going to catch 18 balls for 100 yards in a run-and-shoot offense (he finished with 17 catches for 138 yards). The Rams had drives that were long on plays and short on points.

The second half, particularly the fourth quarter when five touchdowns were scored, was the shootout most expected. But at the end of the day, what did we really learn that’s new about these teams?

  • Allen still makes boneheaded decisions as he should have been picked twice in this one, and he was bailed out by multiple penalties on scoring drives.
  • James Cook still fumbles too often and in big spots like he did in overtime here.
  • The Rams still have a terrible kicker (Mevis) and generally terrible special teams, which cost them another game with two missed field goals and a long kickoff return to Buffalo to start the game.
  • Joe Brady’s passing game takes the air out of the ball as Allen somehow had 196 YAC on 210 passing yards and only 12 completions.
  • The Rams were too dumb to put a quarterback spy on him, so he ran for 121 yards, including several scrambles on the same kind of play that kept burning the Rams.
  • Even though D.J. Moore and Josh Palmer were out, the Buffalo tight ends and wide receivers combined for 100 receiving yards, and 57 of those were on one YAC play by Shakir in OT.
  • The Buffalo defense is lousy and worse than it was under Sean McDermott. Stafford threw 55 times and was sacked once while completing 40 passes.
  • The Bills were just fortunate that Sean McVay once again wimped out of a gutsy call to go for 2 and the win after Kyren Williams’ touchdown with 0:05 left.

In some games, you go to overtime at home. But in a game where five straight touchdowns were just scored, you go for 2 and the win. Why not? You’re almost banking on an outcome where you have to defend the Bills in overtime, probably give up another TD since neither of you can get a stop, then have to get your own TD, then probably go for 2 to win then. Why not just wipe out that injury risk on all those snaps and go for the 2 now while you have the terrible Buffalo defense reeling, and Stafford was dealing?

It made no sense in the moment, and I don’t think McVay in Year 10 is ever going to change. This is just who he is. Then in overtime, you get the Cook fumble, you get to the Buffalo 35, then you take the ball out of Stafford’s hands after he played such a clean game? Just nonsense. They ran Kyren on 3rd-and-5 for no gain on the outer edge of field goal range for their overweight kicker (I’m allowed to say it).

Even if the 48-yard field goal wasn’t getting blocked, it looked like he was going to miss it anyway with a bad kick. That’s just who he is.

Then after watching that sequence and the way the Giants-Commanders game ended on Sunday, Joe Brady and the Bills still screwed up their final drive. First, I think they caught a break with the refs letting the clock go down to the 2-minute warning as that quick no-gain run should not have taken 5 seconds when they ran it with 2:45 left. Saved them a delay of game penalty.

But at 2:00 and second down, you run two plays even if they’re knees, and then you kick the field goal in the final 40 seconds so that if it’s missed, you leave the Rams little time to go get the winner. They just kicked it immediately on second down to conclude one of the worst weeks of coaching decisions in the NFL that I can remember.

Fortunately, Tyler Bass was good from 45 yards this time, and in Year 9 in his eighth try, Josh Allen finally wins an overtime game in the NFL. But this type of game does not move the needle positively for me on these teams. If anything, it makes me want to trust them less, because Buffalo isn’t gong to win 37-34 games every week in the playoffs. No one does that.

Then the Rams are 2-3 and in danger of not even making the playoffs if they don’t get Garrett back soon and start playing up to their potential on defense. Even if they do, the special teams can still ruin it any given week as that continues to be a failure for McVay.

It was a spectacle Monday night. But a Super Bowl preview it was not.

49ers at Seahawks: Sunday’s Best

It’s actually comical to see the final score of 32-29 in a game with one touchdown drive longer than 24 yards. These teams were feasting on seven turnovers to set up short fields for scores, including one return touchdown by the 49ers. When George Holani fumbled in the open field just by dropping the ball, I knew I was watching something bizarre and fvcked up.

It wasn’t isolated to one or two players either. It was numerous players on both teams that kept losing control of the ball, which you wouldn’t expect to see on a nice weather day without rain or anything. It’s like these teams were nervous, which would be a weird position since they played in Week 18 for the No. 1 seed last year, two weeks before they met in the playoffs. Those were bigger games than Sunday.

I don’t think either quarterback was very good, though Brock Purdy got it together late and avoided some of the crucial mistakes Darnold had. The go-ahead touchdown drive with Purdy throwing the score to Brandin Cooks was his best drive of the day.

The Seahawks had a chance to tie or take the lead late, but JSN had a horrific drop in the open field after a strong game. Hate to see that in that spot. But on 4th-and-10, Cooper Kupp got 9 yards after diving out of bounds and stretching the ball.

This is another call in Week 5 that technically might be correct in the rulebook, but it just feels spiritually wrong, and it feels like something that has been inconsistently applied. I don’t like the way the end zone gets treated so differently from a first-down market at midfield. This feels like a play where Kupp left his feet while still inbounds and made a diving attempt for the marker and got there. I feel like that should be a first down even if I understand why it wasn’t per rules.

But that doesn’t mean it feels right or is a good judgment call. Hate to see a game end that way. The 49ers improve to 5-0, and the Seahawks look a bit vulnerable at the moment. The defense isn’t quite as impressive as last year, and Darnold is struggling.

But I still look forward to the rematch in Week 12 at the end of November. Just like to see a cleaner game.

Eagles vs. Jaguars: Inconceivable

I slept on this first half of what turned out to be a crazy London game. The shorthanded Eagles were hanging in there, though I think Liam Coen helped that with some of those fourth-down decisions.

I did not like the decision to go for 4th-and-5 at the Philadelphia 5 with 6:35 left and the Jaguars down 14-10. Lawrence threw wildly and turned it over on downs. Some will point to the long snapper issue making a field goal problematic, though I guess the end of the game proved that to be overblown.

But it kind of felt like that would sink the Jaguars no matter what they did as they got a touchdown on 4th-and-5 to Parker Washington on the following drive. And sure enough, the bad snap/hold ruined the XP, so the Jaguars were left vulnerable at 16-14.

The teams exchanged three-and-outs as the clock management wasn’t great on either side, and Jalen Hurts eventually got it back and got it done, setting up a 48-yard field goal with 0:08 left to take a 17-16 lead.

Game over? Not in today’s NFL. You really have to set up the field goal as the final play anymore as we’re seeing 7-8 seconds is enough for a team to win, even if they didn’t have a timeout like Jacksonville. The Eagles screwed up by not kicking deep for a touchback, and the Jaguars returned it 53 yards to set up maybe the deadliest long-range kicker in the NFL in Cam Little, who drilled the game winner from 57 yards out. Trevor Lawrence gets credit for a 4QC for the earlier touchdown but no GWD in this rare situation.

But you have to go for the touchback there and make them try to run some crazy play from the 35. Even a kickoff out of bounds in case you worry you won’t make it to the end zone for a touchback and putting them at the 40 would be better than what happened. I still say the Eagles had a shot to delay the tackle just a hair or two by not bringing the returner down immediately, and the clock would have just expired. Game over.

So many things went wrong in such a quick period of time, and just like that, the Eagles blew an improbable lead for the second week in a row. They went from looking like they’d save their season to possibly putting into motion the end for Sirianni and maybe even Hurts in Philly at this rate.

Ravens at Falcons: Falconing Returns

You know all about Chargering, the Chargers’ art of choking away games. The NFC has its own version in Atlanta called Falconing, and Super Bowl LI is their masterpiece that not even the Chargers can match so far.

Well, Sunday night was some on-brand Falconing after the Falcons blew their shot to win all three of their prime-time games no one but the NFL thought they deserved. Baltimore, even with backup quarterback Snoop Huntley, became the first team since the 2022 Cardinals (vs. Raiders) won a game after trailing by 8 points in the final minute. Same score too as both were down 23-15 before forcing overtime and winning on a touchdown.

Huntley has played well the last two years, and I think you could argue Baltimore makes the playoffs last year if they just started Huntley instead of Cooper Rush when Lamar was injured. But this was impressive on the road given Mark Andrews went all domestic terrorist again with a dropped touchdown, a fumble for a touchdown, and he couldn’t squeeze a 2PC.

Speaking of 2PC, the Ravens finally found a way to go to someone other than Andrews with the game on the line. After the late touchdown, the Ravens put Derrick Henry in the Wildcat and did a direct snap, which he scored on to save the day. Good to see something different here.

Sadly, Michael Penix Jr. did not finish this game with an injury, but since he did play on that last drive in regulation, he technically falls to 0-7 at game-winning drive opportunities with Atlanta.

After the Ravens consumed 7 minutes in overtime, it left the Falcons with little time to go get a touchdown. That’s an interesting part of the strategy to consider for overtime in the regular season when it’s 10:00 instead of 15:00 with a chance for a second OT quarter.

I’m normally pro-kickoff and go on defense, get the ball second so you know exactly what you need with the chance to play four-down football to get it. But I can admit it’s not a one-size-fits-all strategy, and some games I’ll be open to different strategies. This might be one of them as the Falcons looked tired after defending the late touchdown drive in regulation. By taking the ball first in OT, the Ravens could wear them down even more with Henry and company, which they did on their touchdown march.

Also, since you put the Falcons in a bit of a time bind with the long drive, it hurts their best part of the game in running the ball with Bijan Robinson. Granted, he was mostly held in check aside from a 38-yard burst, but the Falcons had to move quickly, and go figure it only took two passes from backup Tua Tagovailoa before we had a game-ending interception. Kyle Hamilton didn’t drop that one.

But that’s a good win to get to 4-1 for the Ravens without Lamar, and just another missed opportunity for Penix and the Falcons.

Colts at Steelers: Offense Returns to Pittsburgh

I felt really confident in the Steelers based on the way they turned the Colts over six times last year, the extra days of rest for old Aaron Rodgers since the Cleveland loss, and the way the Colts can’t rush the passer and gave up the most yards before contact on rushes.

While the game had no turnovers, the Steelers forced the Colts to kick five field goals and they ended their last two drives with fourth-down stops. On offense, the Steelers got two huge plays (80-yard catch, 50-yard run) out of Jaylen Warren for touchdowns, and Rodgers was getting the ball out quickly with few issues. That’s how you get a comfortable 34-22 win.

Rodgers became the oldest quarterback in NFL history to have three straight games with 200+ passing yards and 3+ passing touchdowns. The Steelers have three straight games with 24 points and 350+ yards of offense for the first time since the 2020 COVID season.

Now we’ll see if this offense can travel as the Steelers are going to the Bucs and Saints the next two weeks. They’re 0-2 on the road and 3-0 at home so far.

Broncos at Chargers: Regression Still Not Here for Both

What ever happened to close-game regression for the Chargers and Broncos?

  • Justin Herbert has failed on seven straight GWD attempts going back to Houston last year as the Chargers are the only team that’s 0-5 at 4QC/GWD in 2026.
  • Bo Nix is 11-1 in GWD opportunities since October 2025, including 3-1 this year.

When Tim Tebow shit the bed for three quarters and pulled out his voodoo in the fourth, people thought it was a fad. When John Elway did it for years in Denver, the fans loved it. When Bo Nix does it, I’m not sure what people think it is. I just know they generally don’t like it and don’t trust it.

But Sunday was another one of those games where Denver scored 13 points in the fourth quarter after trailing 17-10. This time, the Chargers kept turning the ball over, setting up Denver on short fields. I’m not convinced Denver going for the field goal on 4th-and-1 at the 1 in a tied game with 5:10 left was the right call, but maybe it doesn’t matter if Justin Herbert is going to throw this on 4th down right to the defense (look at the receivers to the left too):

There’s no injury to a receiver or offensive lineman that can explain that throw. Herbert is broken, he’s dead last in QBR (26.5), and I’m not sure we’ve ever seen anything like this.

The same can be said about Nix, who is now 12-5 (.706) at 4QC and 14-6 (.700) at GWDs. Regression has to hit at some point, doesn’t it?

Bears at Packers: Missing Caleb

Maybe it’s for the best that Mike Ditka’s (RIP) last Bears-Packers game was the playoff one from January as this 31-7 beatdown was not kind to Chicago. Just outclassed from the start on both sides of the ball, Jordan Love and Christian Watson had yet another good game against this defense, and Tyson Bagnet looked like an inexperienced backup quarterback who let the Jets intercept him four times (only one counted though).

Bagent was picked twice here, and Johnson didn’t go with Case Keenum until it was 31-7 in the fourth quarter, and the Bears still ended up turning it over or on downs on their last five drives.

Ben Johnson is just 2-7 against the NFC North, so his rivals aren’t impressed. I’m not ready to panic yet on this team as they clearly need to get Caleb Williams back at quarterback. But I do think there’s a real concern with this offense that having “too many weapons” means the young players (Odunze, Loveland, Burden) are not developing properly because they don’t have defined roles. Who really is the WR1 in this offense? Khalif Raymond has had nice games but he had 3 catches for 6 yards on Sunday.

Figure out the roles better. Meanwhile, I think the Packers have done exactly that with fewer weapons this year when you see Watson with 143 yards, Matthew Golden with 123 yards, and Tucker Kraft had 64 yards. Everyone else had 37 yards combined. Just lean on your best deep threat, your first-round speedster, and your very good tight end. I like that.

The Bears need to sort their offense out better.

Vikings at Saints: Justin Jefferson Deserves Better

The Vikings improved to 5-0 after a ho-hum 23-13 win in New Orleans. The offense was a bit better this week, and Justin Jefferson added a great highlight play with this touchdown in triple coverage that was all him.

Too bad he doesn’t get to play with an elite quarterback. But the Vikings relentlessly blitzed Tyler Shough and it worked again. While he only took one sack, he was 16-of-25 for 96 yards with two picks. Half of the Saints’ points were on a fumble return by the defense.

The Vikings are getting it done defensively under Brian Flores.

Browns at Jets: Blame It on the Rain?

A predictably close game that was lower scoring (17-12) possibly due to the rain. It also doesn’t help when your receiver (Isiah Bond) is catching a 30-yard pass and running out of bounds when he had a chance to go for a touchdown.

Keep in mind that drive would end with Cleveland punting on 4th-and-38 after Predator took a couple of sacks. But Watson also led a go-ahead drive in the fourth quarter that would have been a fourth-straight game-winning drive. Alas, the Browns missed the extra point, Geno Smith lost a fumble, and the Browns went three-and-out in the four-minute offense.

However, the punt ended up being a killer as the wet ball was too much for the punter to handle, and that led to a turnover on downs. The Jets only had to drive 23 yards for the game-winning touchdown, and Geno didn’t even complete a pass on the drive. Watson couldn’t answer on either drive in the final 3:01, and he was strip-sacked on 4th-and-11 to end the game.

Cleveland’s 3-game winning streak ends.

Giants at Commanders: How?

By now, you no doubt saw what happened in overtime after the Commanders blew a 14-point lead to Jameis Winston and the Giants. The Commanders were handed a golden opportunity for a win after the Giants already missed a 46-yard field goal and Cam Skattebo fumbled at the 24 in overtime.

The Commanders just had to spike the ball and kick a field goal in the closing seconds to get a big 30-27 win. But Jayden Daniels took the snap regularly, looked like he would just chuck it out of bounds, but then he took a dive and the clock ran out with the team out of timeouts. There wasn’t enough time for the spike.

Someone should probably get fired over this, and while I don’t think Dan Quinn did a good job on Sunday here, I have to believe this is on Daniels more than anyone. It’s not the first time he got caught trying to do too much at the end of a half or quarter and didn’t get a field goal attempt out of the deal. Whether he simply forgot the timeout situation or pulled a 2008 Donovan McNabb and didn’t know that a game could end in a tie, he fvcked up big time here.

And it’s a shame because he was close to doing the 200 yards passing/100 yards rushing thing in this game as he ran the ball well in his return from elbow injury. But a total brain fart in overtime denied the shot at a big win for Washington.

Maybe it’s fitting that the NFC East doesn’t get a single win in Week 5 despite two teams playing each other. Poverty division.

Raiders at Patriots: Moving in Opposite Directions?

The Raiders have lost two in a row after a 3-0 start while the Patriots have won two in a row after a 1-2 start. Drake Maye had arguably his best performance ever in the NFL in this game with five total touchdowns and 374 passing yards.

Just a dominant win, though I do see the criticism that the Patriots repeatedly got DPI flags on most touchdown drives in the game. But both teams were over 100 yards in penalties and the Patriots still crushed them.

It wouldn’t surprise me one bit if these teams move in opposite directions the rest of the season. Trajectory is back to looking up for Maye, who gets A.J. Brown back soon.

Lions at Cardinals: Detroit Gets First Road Win

The Lions might have the best offense in the NFL this year as long as the key players stay healthy. The defense isn’t good, but at least it got 5 sacks  on Brissett and held the Cardinals to 14 points at home until Trey McBride made an absurd touchdown catch in garbage time.

I’m still not that moved as the Brissett-era Cardinals are the master of losing high-scoring games like this.

Bengals at Dolphins: Burrow in His Element

Ah yes, there’s Joe Burrow in his element. Throwing four touchdowns (but not 200 yards) against a winless Miami team that has yet to hold a single lead this season. However, the Dolphins still found a way to get a push on the 7-point spread despite a terrible start by Malik Willis, which still makes me think the Bengals are fake contenders this year.

That defense hasn’t been championship caliber, and the offense is still a bit one-dimensional.

Texans at Titans: If a Bear Shits in the Woods…

You have to laugh at the Titans starting this game with a field goal before getting outscored 26-0 the rest of the day. No one scored a touchdown until C.J. Stroud ran one in himself in the third quarter. See, literally any quarterback can do it from 2 yards out.

But the Texans were always the better team here, and the result isn’t a surprise. The Titans are really that bad with no direction going forward. That new coaching staff has done zilch but make things even worse and more pointless in Tennessee.

Next Week

I just finished my Week 6 preview, and I can tell you the games aren’t that great this week. Seahawks-Broncos on TNF is actually one of the best games we get. The Jags are taking on Houston in London as a bit of a last-chance effort for Houston.

Ravens-Browns is a 1 PM highlight, I guess. Chargers at Kansas City should have been the premiere game but the Chargers are 0-5. Still, I’d be shocked if they don’t cover the spread (9). Bills-Raiders could be fun if only the Raiders play offense like they did in September. Dallas vs. Green Bay on SNF usually ends poorly for the Cowboys, though I guess a 40-40 tie last year was better than a loss.

Washington-49ers on MNF is the kind of game I could have used last night to get some work done early. But I’ll get everything done, go to bed, and recharge for the rest of the week. Look out on Twitter for my full Joe Burrow video spoofing A Few Good Men. I posted a trailer on Monday.

2026 NFL Stat Oddity: Week 4

NFL Stat Oddity 2026
~ Scott ~ 4 Comments

With a month of the 2026 NFL season in the books, the last two weeks have really pushed this season into ultra-competitive territory as Week 4 was the second week in a row 12 games had a comeback opportunity in the fourth quarter.

That marks 39 of the first 63 games to have one (61.9%), and that percentage would be the highest season since 2011 if it stood. The last two seasons were both barely over 56% of the games featuring a comeback opportunity.

We’re also on pace for just over 55 double-digit comebacks from any point in the game, which would be a single-season record. We’re on pace for almost 81 blown leads (or comeback wins) in the fourth quarter, which would also be in record territory. Finally, the average margin of victory is 10.1 points, which would be the second lowest in history behind only 2022 (9.8).

It’s a competitive season where we may lack great teams again. That might just be the new norm in today’s sports with injuries playing a big factor. Still, it’s quite wild to see the Texans, Chargers, and Buccaneers all 0-4 despite favorable playoff odds going into the season.

It’s not like they haven’t been competitive:

  • The Texans have blown three fourth-quarter leads while no other team has more than one.
  • The Chargers are the only team that is 0-4 at 4QC/GWD opportunities.
  • The Chargers (0-4), Texans (0-3), and Buccaneers (0-3) are the only three teams who are 0-3 or worse at 4QC/GWD opportunities this season.

Also, I have to point out that Sunday was a particularly nice day for me after the two viral tweets I had last week about Joe Burrow and Josh Allen.

They both were in a position to make me look bad on Sunday, but they just reinforced my stances with Burrow falling to 1-35 when trailing in the final 8:00, and Allen royally blew a game against the Patriots with a game-ending interception he didn’t need to force.

Meanwhile, we start our recaps in Las Vegas in the battle of 3-0 teams with Patrick Mahomes tying another NFL record.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Chiefs at Raiders: Game of the Week

Every once in a while, I can get a game exactly right as I had the Chiefs winning a 30-27 game as they did in the big battle of 3-0 teams.

But it was still a confidence-building game for the Raiders as they hung in there with the Chiefs all day, and while they didn’t win like rookie coach Klint Kubiak predicted at halftime, they didn’t embarrass themselves like the Raiders often did in anything resembling a big game in the Derek Carr era. This team does feel different, and they were feasting on Kansas City’s defense with tight ends with almost no help from their wide receivers.

Maybe the Chiefs need to learn something from that as Sunday was a bit of a pyrrhic victory. They lost Rashee Rice and Tyquan Thornton, their two best wide receivers, though it sounds like Rice could be back after the bye, and Thornton might be able to give it a go if there’s a deep playoff run. But that’s a big problem going forward as you lose the only deep threat who has played so great with Mahomes. Get Tyreek Hill on Line 1.

But the Chiefs also exposed Mahomes to plenty more hits with two backups on the left side of the line after Andy Reid benched Kingsley Suamataia for personal reasons. The result was a game where Mahomes completed just 15-of-30 passes with three throwaways and two sacks. Maxx Crosby had five quarterback hits by himself.

Meanwhile, Kansas City’s defense hasn’t had a sack since the third quarter of Week 1, and they nearly blew an 11-point lead in the final 3:02. The Chiefs winning games this way is similar to 2022 or 2024, but you can’t cover up these flaws in the offensive line, wide receivers, and pass rush against better opponents, which are coming.

Right now, this team is basically succeeding on Mahomes making timely throws and Kenneth Walker breaking tackles on excellent runs because the run blocking just isn’t there. The bye actually comes at a good time to figure out how to adjust going forward.

It’s a nice 4-0 start and the rest of the NFL doesn’t look particularly strong, so you don’t want to waste the opportunity of a potential Super Bowl season here. But I just think the limited WR room combined with trying to do more play-action passing behind this line is not a great combination for keeping Mahomes upright for the long term this year.

Still, he put the team ahead twice in the fourth quarter on Sunday, giving him a 12th multiple game-winning drive (mGWD), tied with Ben Roethlisberger now for the most in NFL history.

Rams at Eagles: Possibly a Season-Saving Comeback

Come January or February, we could be looking back at this game as the turning point of the season. The Rams didn’t have Myles Garrett or Aaron Donald on defense. The Eagles didn’t have Lane Johnson, Dallas Goedert, or DeVonta Smith, and they lost Saquon Barkley early in this one.

Still, the Eagles led 20-10 with the ball at the Rams’ 2 with half a quarter left. They had a chance to put this team down to 1-3, and Nick Sirianni would have been 5-0 against Sean McVay.

And yet the Eagles lost this game at home in a comeback that was in some ways more shocking than the 19-point lead the Eagles erased against the Rams a year ago. The Eagles had two cracks from the 2-yard line to make this a 17-point game, which is exactly why you go for it there instead of kicking the field goal to make it 23-10, or a two-score game staying a two-score game. I don’t fault the decision, I just didn’t care for the play calls as neither worked.

Still, the Rams had 98 yards to go and Matthew Stafford wasn’t sharp on the day. But he hit some big throws, and a penalty helped the Rams get to the red zone where they finished off the 98-yard match with a Kyren Williams touchdown to make it 20-17 with 3:59 left.

The Eagles went three-and-out, which is what plagued them in 2025, and they’re next to last in that category in 2026 despite the coordinator change. Still, you could at least argue the injuries are killing them at the moment, but something is broken with their offensive system.

Stafford got the ball back, drove the team back into the red zone, and they weren’t relying on no stinkin’ kicker again this year. Williams had a brilliant 7-yard touchdown run to put the Rams up 24-20 with 1:10 left.

Hurts immediately took a sack, then another one as the Eagles went four-and-out after an incomplete pass on 4th-and-25. Total collapse by the Eagles while the Rams just saved their season that was slipping away.

Remember this one as the trajectory of these two teams could be heading in opposite directions the rest of the way.

Patriots at Bills: Possibly a Season-Saving Comeback II

September was a rough one for the Patriots, but they could right the ship with an upset in Buffalo, and that’s exactly what they got. It was similar to last year when the 2-2 Patriots were a big underdog in Buffalo, and they pulled off some takeaways and Drake Maye led the first game-winning drive of his NFL career.

On Sunday, I think Maye had the best win of his NFL career too. He did the things I’ve always criticized him for not doing:

  • He led a legitimate 4QC/GWD late in the game that wasn’t just a long touchdown run by his back.
  • He threw 37 passes in the game and only took a single sack to beat a winning team.
  • It’s the first time in Maye’s career he won a game where his defense allowed more than 24 points.

How bad is that Buffalo defense? The Patriots scored 10, 13, and 6 points on offense in the first three games and 29 on the road in this one. Maye’s only interception was a drop and bad deflection by Romeo Doubs, who made up for it later with two touchdowns.

Meanwhile, Josh Allen had been getting away with turnovers earlier this season, and I still think he narrowly avoided a grounding penalty for a safety in the third quarter of this one. But his mistakes caught up to Buffalo in the end of this one.

First, the Bills are absolutely terrible at 2-point conversions these days. After a Keon Coleman touchdown (he played great after D.J. Moore left injured), the Bills had a crucial 2PC to go up 28-21. They failed once again with Allen missing a wide-open tight end and forcing an incomplete pass. Buffalo only led 26-21, opening the door for Maye, who delivered on his 2PC pass to take a 29-26 lead.

Since the 2024 AFC Championship Game, the Bills are 2-of-13 (15.4%) on 2PC plays, including 1-of-10 with Allen attempting the 2PC pass. Now you see why he is the Tush Push guy at the goal line.

Down 29-26, Allen had plenty of time (1:42) to tie or win the game. But on a 2nd-and-6 at his own 40, he forced a deep throw and was intercepted. The Patriots got one first down and ran out the clock.

Huge win for the Patriots, who prevented the AFC East from being somewhat wrapped up by Week 4 for Buffalo, a team that is about to see the schedule get tougher too while New England’s eases up some.

But for Buffalo, you could argue this team is worse than recent years given the defense looks worse without McDermott, and the offense is still quite careless with the ball in big spots, and Joe Brady apparently can’t design 2PC plays, or Allen just can’t hit the throws like the 13-12 Philadelphia loss last year.

September’s over. The Bills need to get better.

Chargers at Seahawks: Probably a Season-Ending Loss

It’s not like I expected the Chargers to win at Seattle, but I thought Justin Herbert could do better than a DeShone Kizer-like stat line for much of the game. He was 5-of-14 for 36 yards and two picks at halftime.

Speaking of Kizer, he was 0-15 as a starter for the 2017 Browns, who finished 0-16. The Chargers have actually lost seven straight games going back to last year, and the offense has never been worse in the Justin Herbert era. In fact, this is probably the worst Chargers offense since the Ryan Leaf era.

Even after the Chargers managed to get this back to a 30-23 game with the ball, Herbert lost it on a fumble to end the game. It also reportedly is the first game in the play-by-play era (since 1977) where the first two plays from scrimmage were an interception from each starting quarterback. Odd.

But what a rough game with both teams registering 13 possessions. I’ll be very curious to see how the Seahawks hold up against the 49ers next week. As for the Chargers, they have the Broncos, Chiefs, and Rams up next, so 0-7 is not out of the question.

Again, the 1992 Chargers are the only team in the Super Bowl era to start 0-4 and make the playoffs. The 2026 Chargers are not the 1992 Chargers.

Cowboys at Texans: Probably a Season-Ending Loss II

The Texans had a great defense in 2024-25, and the vast majority of those starters were active again on Sunday. But for the third time this year, the Texans blew a fourth-quarter lead. No other NFL team has done that more than once this season.

C.J. Stroud has been a lighting rod for criticism, but this loss was not on him. He got Nico Collins back, and that helped big time as Stroud threw for 347 yards, two touchdowns to Nico, and he did it without a good running game (17 carries for 50 yards). He also had a clutch touchdown drive to take the lead with 2:23 left.

But the Cowboys finally sucked it up and had their own clutch drive as Dak Prescott led a 74-yard march for the go-ahead touchdown to CeeDee Lamb with 40 seconds left. Lamb had 17 catches for 189 yards, numbers that seem unfathomable against this defense in 2024-25.

Stroud only had 37 seconds to work with, and his Hail Mary attempt fell incomplete to end the game, dropping Houston to 0-4. It’s been a stunning collapse that is on the defense as much as the offense, if not more so given the hype of this unit and the Nico injury on the other side.

As for the Cowboys, it’s good to see them deliver in a situation like this even if the Texans are going through a rough period that could lead to someone getting fired if this keeps up.

Jaguars at Bengals: Jags Cruise Down Interstate 1-35 for Big Road Win

As I said in this week’s predictions, Jacksonville is the one opponent that Zac Taylor’s Bengals have repeatedly been able to beat in higher-scoring games and in crunch time. Sunday was shaping up to be another one as the Bengals were 21 yards away from pulling off a 12-point comeback all in the final 6:35, which would easily be the best comeback win of Joe Burrow’s career. He’s never won after trailing by more than 7 points in the fourth quarter.

Of course, it may not have been necessary if he didn’t throw a red-zone pick in a 16-10 game with 14:10 left. That was his second pick of the game and lucky it wasn’t a third after a bad one to Travis Hunter was negated by roughing earlier in the game. Penalties were massive in this one as both teams combined for 24 penalties for 233 yards.

But with Ja’Marr Chase knocked out with a concussion, Burrow had a chance to be the hero in a game he threw the ball 54 times for 428 yards. A game where his running backs had 12 carries for 17 yards. This was all on him.

And he blew it again by coming up short. After three good throws to start the drive, Burrow couldn’t get the Bengals any closer from the 21. He had a miscommunication on second down with a possible touchdown to Mike Gesicki, then he threw it short on 4th-and-10 to Chase Brown, who only got 9-of-10 yards to end the game. No dagger throw to put the team on top in the final minute again.

After the game, Burrow’s answer to the lack of balance was throwing it more. I didn’t hear him say they need to do whatever it takes to score more than 17 points as the defense, while not perfect, did hold a red-hot Jacksonville team to 22, only the second time in nearly a year that the Jaguars didn’t reach 23 points. Parker Washington had just a single catch for 7 yards and Lawrence was sacked four times.

But the Bengals (2-2) came up short again in the exact situation I point to them doing so with Burrow, who is now 1-35 when trailing in the final 8:00, a stat he was asked about this week. He had a chance to immediately fire back with his best comeback ever, and the end result was another loss.

Lions at Panthers: The Bryce Young Breakout Season or Detroit’s Defense Is Actually Horrible?

Are we truly witnessing the Bryce Young Year 4 breakout season for the No. 1 overall pick? He leads the NFL in passing yards (1,268) as no quarterback has thrown more passes (162), but he’s also averaging 7.8 yards per pass, a full 1.5 yards above his previous seasons.

He looked great on Sunday night against Detroit, and while the Lions are a contender for the worst defense right now, the fact is Young has been fairly consistent this year. He’s not just relying on fourth-quarter heroics anymore either. Getting Tetairoa McMillan has really worked out for him as the two had their best game together on SNF.

Meanwhile, the Lions have allowed the most points and yards on defense, and the offense hasn’t been great enough to win more than two of the games. They still have just one turnover in four games, so that hasn’t been the problem for Jared Goff yet. They just have to be close to perfect and can’t really settle for field goals or failing on fourth downs.

That happened a bit too much last night, and the last drive in particular with two minutes to go get a winning touchdown in a 32-26 game was absolutely abysmal.

Something just feels a little off about the Detroit offense right now. They have five capable weapons to throw to, though the running back depth is gone without David Montgomery there anymore. They are only 14th at converting third downs too, which you can stomach a little since Dan Campbell is more likely to go on fourth down. But the exact level of precision they need to overcome a bottom-ranked defense just isn’t there yet, so I think you’ll continue to see them struggle in such games.

The good news is Detroit doesn’t have a daunting road schedule left with games at Arizona, Miami, Atlanta, Minnesota, Chicago, and Green Bay.

Packers at Buccaneers: Still Not Trusting the Packers

Again, we’ve seen the Packers lose to Tommy DeVito and the Giants in 2023, so nothing would have surprised me here against undrafted rookie Jalon Daniels and the struggling Buccaneers.

The Packers did fail to cover the spread (-3.5) thanks to some fourth-quarter blunders, including a deep red-zone fumble by Kaleb Johnson, and Jordan Love had another boneheaded interception late in the game in Tampa territory.

That gave Daniels a chance to be the hero with 4:18 left from his own 15. His passing in the game wasn’t good as expected, but he rushed for 55 yards and showed decent mobility. He only needed a field goal to tie. But a sack shortly after the two-minute warning killed the drive, and they just pressured him on 4th-and-11 to get home with more pressure that led to a meaningless interception as the ball was going back to Green Bay either way.

Tough way to start 0-4 for Tampa Bay, but the Packers don’t look that much better if we’re being honest.

Jets at Bears: Ben Johnson’s Laboratory

Ben Johnson is a wild one because he actually started the game with Case Keenum at quarterback and Tyson Bagnet on the field too, split wide. I think that should actually give Keenum credit for the win since he took the first snap at quarterback and handed off. But Bagent ended up throwing every pass in the game.

He did throw one interception that counted, ending the improbable 20-game streak without a pick for Aaron Glenn’s defense. Bagent also had three other picks negated by penalties, which is unfathomable for one game. Maybe the Jets are going to start getting huge positive regression in that category? Just need to stay onsides and stop committing penalties.

But the story of this game was the snap count. The Jets were doing a great job of hogging the ball early in the season, but the Bears had more first downs (34) than the Jets had plays (32) in this game, reportedly only the second time in the Super Bowl era this happened. Just pure domination as the Jets were 0-for-7 on third down and had 7 first downs in the game.

The Bears can run, they can win with three different quarterbacks, and the defense has really picked it up after an awful Week 1 (again, Carolina might just be good now on offense).

Chicago is looking like the real deal this year.

Cardinals at Giants: A Walk-off to Remember

I had the Giants winning as a home underdog, which made me a little surprised the spread was even in Arizona’s favor. But after an early 14-3 lead for the road team, I started wondering if that NFC West superiority was a real thing this season.

Fortunately, a game with Jacoby Brissett and Jameis Winston played out as you expected with fun touchdowns and turnovers loading up the stat sheets. It was a 27-24 game going into the fourth quarter before the scoring slowed down dramatically.

The Giants kicked a 52-yard field goal with 2:11 left to take the dreaded 6-point lead. I’ve never been a fan of that, but I’m not sure what you really can do on 4th-and-5 at the opponent 34. Kinda too close to take a delay of game and punt. A little too far to still want to go for it as a couple of first downs and the opponent is in field goal range.

Given Brissett’s historically-bad record at comebacks (6-27 record) and the fact that Arizona still had two clock stoppages, going up 30-24 was probably the right call. But that drive got to the 4-yard line, giving Brissett four cracks at it. He went to Trey McBride just once and Michael Wilson three times, but the last one was picked off and the Giants took it 98 yards to rub it in with the 12-point win. You’d prefer to just see the player take a slide and end the game instead of risking a fumbled return or whatever, but sometimes scoring is okay too with no time left. It didn’t affect the spread either way.

But man, with 4 yards to go, wouldn’t that be a nice spot to have a trustworthy receiver with a heigh advantage like Marvin Harrison Jr.? They got him a 12-yard touchdown early in the game, and he drew a pass interference flag that got them to the 4 in the first place. But nothing to him with the game on the line.

Titans at Ravens: Not Again, Lamar  

It’s funny how once Lamar Jackson went out with an injury, the RedZone channel basically forgot this game existed. I can understand that too. It was 24-7 at halftime and there wasn’t another touchdown scored until the Titans got one with 1:12 left to make it 24-18. But not enough time for anything but an onside kick, which failed.

Tyler Loop made a 64-yard field goal to end the half but also missed a 40-yard kick with 3:19 left that would have put it out to a 3-score lead. He’s a work in progress. The Titans are always a work in progress as Cam Ward and the offense have done so little this year.

But all eyes are on Jackson as he took a huge hit in this game at the sideline that you normally don’t see, then he left the game after getting injured on a sack right before the 64-yard field goal. Not good. Not this again as we wait to see if he’ll be active next Sunday night.

Commanders vs. Colts: The London Tradition

I remember a 2008 game in London where the Saints and Chargers played a 37-32 shootout and it was great. But the teams involved had a lot to do with it, and since then, the NFL loves sending teams like the Jaguars (usually bad) and teams with Marcus Mariota at quarterback overseas.

That’s why the games are usually low scoring and ugly to watch, which is why I tend to sleep in during the first 2-3 quarters and catch the ending. But I just so happened to be up early on Sunday, and I watched the whole game. If you like defense (great tackling, pressure on the quarterback), Colts-Commanders was a great game. If not, then it was skippable.

I really think my pick of Washington had some hope if Mariota didn’t get injured early. He was 3-of-4 for 46 yards and his 35-yard run finished as the team’s leading rusher. Rookie Athan Kaliakmanis (Christ, what a name) had to step in, and he threw some fearless deep balls that hit, but overall, he wasn’t going to get the job done.

Daniel Jones looked pretty bad, but the Colts got enough on the ground from Jonathan Taylor and company to eventually score 30 points and get the win. But I don’t see much playoff hope for either squad.

Dolphins at Vikings: It’s Not a Bad Beat

The Vikings improved to 4-0 even though the offense settled for five field goals and didn’t score any touchdowns for the second time this season. But tight end T.J. Hockenson, who caught all 13 of his targets, started a shitstorm when he slid down at the Miami 2 with a 15-10 lead as the clock moved to the two-minute warning. With the Dolphins out of timeouts, this game was over with three kneeldowns.

This is the right football play every single time. The game is over and you literally can’t lose unless you fumble the snap on a kneeldown. Yet, whether it’s people with Hockenson in fantasy or props, or it’s people who took the sucker line of Vikings -10 (without Jefferson? Really? I told you on Saturday it was Miami ATS all the way), they seem to think Hockenson should score a meaningless touchdown.

Open the schools if people don’t see why he did that, something many players have done over the years (Brian Westbrook in 2007, Peyton Manning in 2010, etc.). It doesn’t mean the game is rigged; it means you don’t understand strategy. Why risk more snaps when your players can get injured on any given one of them? The game was over.

Broncos at 49ers: The Way You Handle Bo Nix in the Fourth Quarter

Lots of long drives with punts and field goal attempts kept this to a 10-3 score going into the fourth quarter. That’s generally not when you want to see Bo Nix with the ball as he tends to turn into Joe Montana after looking like Cade McNown for the first three quarters.

But the 49ers handled him the best way you could by simply staying ahead of the scoreboard. The Broncos decided to kick a 40-yard field goal on 4th-and-2, and they trailed 10-6. Brock Purdy engineered a touchdown drive, which Nix answered with a touchdown and 2-point conversion to keep the heat on at 17-14 with plenty of time left (4:05) to get the ball back.

I’ve been working on game-sealing drive data, and while this wouldn’t count as one, it was perfection in the four-minute offense by the 49ers as a well-timed and schemed tight end screen to George Kittle broke for a 56-yard touchdown, and the 49ers were back up 10 points with 2:25 to play.

That’s already the second time this year the Broncos allowed a huge YAC play (50+ yards) to an “old” tight end after Travis Kelce got them in Week 1. If it wasn’t for what Patrick Mahomes is doing off an ACL, I think Kittle would be the favorite to win Comeback Player of the Year. He looks great after an Achilles in the playoffs.

The Broncos only had enough time left for a missed 58-yard field goal with 1:14 left. They would have needed an onside kick anyway. So, that’s one way to prevent a Bo Nix comeback. Just get one stop and keep scoring.

Next Week

Not a great start with Bucs-Cowboys on Thursday night. Eagles against the London Jaguars on Sunday morning is a big one for Philly to stop this slide, which isn’t looking likely. Jacksonville looks legit. Hard to believe Packers-Bears is losing luster because of how Green Bay is playing and not how the Bears are doing with BACKUP quarterbacks.

Pretty weak 1 PM slate when Raiders-Patriots might be the top game. Only three games in the late afternoon but 49ers-Seahawks is clearly the game of the week, if not the top game in the first five weeks of the season. We’ll see on SNF if Lamar Jackson can play in Atlanta. Bills at Rams is very interesting for MNF.

2026 NFL Stat Oddity: Week 3

NFL Stat Oddity 2026
~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

The 2026 NFL season was running low on close games with just 15-of-33 games presenting a game-winning drive opportunity to start the year. But Sunday changed that with 12 such games, and we saw nine game-winning drives after 10 in Weeks 1-2 combined. It was one of the most competitive days in NFL history, and the only surprise is none of the games reached overtime.

But despite 10 new head coaches and 21 new offensive coordinators, it’s surprising how little positive change we’ve seen around the NFL from last year.

Sure, the Patriots looking much worse against a tough September schedule isn’t a surprise. The Chargers, Texans, and Buccaneers are all 0-3 and playing poorly. But a lot of teams look like the teams we saw last year:

  • The Broncos are still relying on huge second-half comebacks while the Rams blew their third 16-point lead since 2025.
  • The Bengals are now 1-34 with Joe Burrow at quarterback when trailing in the final 8:00, and the Steelers had the Tomlin Special with an unexpected clutch win as a home underdog after the defense came up with the strip-sack.
  • The 49ers are piling up injuries and wins at the same time.
  • Jacoby Brissett is putting up passing volume and losses for Arizona at the same time.
  • Detroit needs to score 31 points to have a chance to win with their one-man defense (Aidan Hutchinson).
  • Geno Smith has improved the Jets’ offense, but he can’t help Aaron Glenn’s defense get a single interception (20 games and counting).
  • The Bills can still drop five turnovers at random, and Chargering is still on brand.
  • Kyler Murray hasn’t been efficient as the Vikings rely on improbable wins (par for the course for KOC).
  • The Cowboys and Ravens kept the win probability charting jumping in the fourth quarter, a reminder you can’t trust either team in big games.
  • No second-year quarterback magic to turn a team around after Jaxon Dart had a season-ending injury for the Giants, Cam Ward actually looks worse instead of better in Tennessee, and Tyler Shough can’t seem to play a 60-minute game for the Saints.

At this point, the 3-0 Raiders and 2-1 Browns might actually be the teams that shock the NFL world with their rookie coaches and different veteran quarterbacks taking over. But they’ll play their arch rivals in the Chiefs and Steelers in Week 4, so we’ll see just how real that change is and how much is playing opponents who haven’t actually changed much from 2025.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Bengals at Steelers: Game of the Week

I usually have a solid read on Steelers-Bengals game but not this time. I thought Aaron Rodgers was going to have to throw it 40+ times in a one-dimensional offense that had shown zero ability to run the ball, and they’d have to do it against a new-look Cincinnati defense that was stopping the run (149 yards allowed in two games) without Rico Dowdle, and Jaylen Warren was reportedly banged up in practice late in the week.

However, right from the first drive,  you could see Rodgers was dialed in and determined to shred a defense he attacked relentlessly in Cincinnati last year in the Unc Bowl. Rodgers was sharp, they moved the pocket for him so he wasn’t a sitting duck all day, and the receivers had fewer mistakes with drops this week.

Rodgers threw two touchdowns in the first quarter, breaking an embarrassing streak as the Steelers finally scored more than 7 points in an opening quarter. Their 72-game drought of not doing that was the longest (playoffs included) in the NFL since 1940.

And yet, it almost didn’t matter that Rodgers doubled the number of offensive touchdown drives this team had in Weeks 1-2 in one quarter, because the defense wasn’t showing up this week. T.J. Watt wasn’t getting his pressures, and the Bengals were slicing and dicing through a secondary that still didn’t have corner Joey Porter Jr. That led to a lot of free releases for Tee Higgins and Ja’Marr Chase as Joe Burrow completed his first 14 passes, and he even got a touchdown to Higgins while Higgins’ ass was going to the ground.

Roman Wilson did tip a Rodgers completion into an interception before halftime, and that was a big swing as the Bengals used that to get a game-tying touchdown drive to make it 17-17 at the break. The Bengals had their blunders on special teams with a roughing the punter and muffed punt, which led to more scores from the Steelers.

Tied at 27, Jaylen Warren had an 87-yard run negated by a holding penalty from D.K. Metcalf, who did a better job of minimizing his mistakes this week, but that penalty could have been a huge one. Speaking of huge, tight end Darnell Washington proved once again why it’s coaching malpractice that he doesn’t get more targets after his 47-yard YAC-filled stomping of the Cincinnati defense.

Warren should have had a 32-yard touchdown run to take the lead on the next snap, but he stumbled and fell, possibly winded from the 87-yard run that didn’t count earlier. In the end, that cost the Steelers 4 points as they couldn’t get the touchdown, but it did at least help burn over three full minutes off the clock.

Still, the Bengals were only down 30-27 and had plenty of time (2:08) from their own 30. But this has always been the test for Burrow and the Bengals, and sure enough, it was another failure as they looked out of sorts right from the start, needing to burn a timeout before the first snap from scrimmage on the drive as their process wasn’t ready to get the play in.

While Chase made a nice move to get 17 yards into Pittsburgh territory, the drive again went haywire out of the two-minute warning after Burrow threw a late checkdown to Chase Brown that lost 4 yards and 35 seconds on the clock. While Chase converted the 3rd-and-8 to the Pittsburgh 38, the drive was about to implode just as CBS announcer Ian Eagle said Burrow’s “had a flair for the dramatic” in his young career.

Derrick Harmon was the one this time with the pursuit of Burrow, who initially got away only to cough up the ball instead of protecting it on first down. The Steelers got the recovery with 44 seconds left and that’s all she wrote on this one. Steelers get the 30-27 win in exactly the kind of game the Bengals never seem to win with Burrow at quarterback.

Burrow is now 1-34 when trailing in the final 8:00 in his NFL career. The only win was in 2022 at New Orleans. Zac Taylor is now 2-18 (.100) when the Bengals allow 28+ points with Burrow at quarterback and 3-9 (.250) in such games without Burrow. Why do you have the most expensive QB-WR-WR trio in NFL history if they always lose this kind of shootout?

I have covered this for years, including this summer in my Cincinnati preview. The people who try to claim the stat is fake news are just angry that it’s undeniably true:

  • While Burrow is 6-21 (.222) at all opportunities when he’s trailed by one score in the fourth quarter or overtime, five of those six wins saw him take the lead for good before the 8:00 mark. Only the 2022 Saints game came later in the game.
  • If you study front-runner quarterbacks, which has included the likes of Len Dawson, Bart Starr, Kurt Warner, Cam Newton, and Aaron Rodgers in the past, you’ll find an uncanny correlation that not only do they tend to have fewer 4QC victories than their peers, but the quality of their successes are usually weaker (i.e. smaller deficits, performed earlier in the quarter instead of later, and usually against lesser opponents).
  • So, instead of using 7:30 to signify the last half of the fourth quarter, we can just round it to 8:00 because the stat is still 100% true. Burrow has one such win in his NFL career.
  • As for the other side of the record, Burrow has lost 36 games including the playoffs. He’s left two losses early before the fourth quarter even started (2020 Washington when he tore his ACL, 2023 Baltimore when he was injured on TNF), so we remove those two games, and that’s how you end up with 1-34.

It’s a horrific record for someone who is supposed to be a top quarterback. Patrick Mahomes is 17-35 (.327) in the same situation. Lamar Jackson is now 11-33 (.250) after starting 1-1 this season. Josh Allen is 15-42 (.263) after starting 2-0 this season.

This is who Burrow has been, and in his first opportunity to turn things around in an important AFC North game, he had one of his worst blunder drives yet.

Meanwhile, Rodgers becomes the 13th quarterback with 40 game-winning drives. It took him the most games (290), four more than Brett Favre needed, as they stand out as outliers here (fittingly).

NFL Quarterbacks - 40 Game-Winning Drives

But in a battle of two of the all-time frontrunners, Rodgers showed he’s still got something in that arm as long as his guys are catching the ball for him. Burrow’s still got some growth to do as he continues to come up short in these situations.

Tale as old as time…

Rams at Broncos: Is It Still 2025?

I wish I had more to say about this one, but you likely saw it play out on SNF with 40 points in the last 1.5 quarters after the Rams were seemingly in control with a 16-0 lead. But when you’re playing Denver, that’s not the end of the game anymore as Bo Nix just seems to wake up when he’s down in the second half.

This game was certainly in his 2025 wheelbarrow, but with Matthew Stafford throwing 55 passes and Nix throwing 34, you’d think the roles were reversed on who was up 16-0. But the Rams threw this one away in similar fashion to their blown leads of 16 and 19 to the Eagles and Seahawks last year on the road too.

Nix threw a bad pick that led to a Rams’ field goal, but then Stafford threw an ugly pick-six (his 33rd; the most in NFL history) that gave the Broncos a 23-19 lead. Stafford answered right back with big throws for 78 yards on three completions to Mumpfield, who was filling in with Puka Nacua out again.

But the Broncos had one more moment of controversy in them with Pat Bryant selling what looked like a game-changing interception in the red zone with 1:09 left. It sure looked like a pick after the receiver cared more about embellishing contact to get a flag than he did actually trying to catch the ball. That was one of the worst calls I saw all Sunday and would not have threw a flag there.

With new life, the Broncos found the end zone eventually with Nix doing the old Brees/Stafford sneak of sticking the ball out before pulling it back quickly. Down 30-26 with just 0:42 left, Stafford did a nice job of driving the ball to the 14 with a chance to win. But I’m not sure what Stafford thought he saw on the final play as the pass was easily intercepted, and Denver held on for the 30-26 comeback win to drop the Rams to 1-2.

The usual caveats: Puka Nacua and Myles Garrett were out. Pretty big deal when you’re talking about the receiver who always gets open and the reigning DPOY. Aaron Donald also isn’t fully back after two years off, and maybe he never gets back on track as an elite player. But he’s still not going to be 100% after two games.

We can’t really call the Rams a superteam if they’ve never put their best players on the field in the same game. However, those new additions at corner were supposed to fix a leaky secondary that hurt them in spots last year, and that was not the case in this game as Nix came alive with his receivers in the second half.

At least the special teams weren’t horrific for the Rams this time. But this was such a 2025 loss for the Rams and such a 2025 win for the Broncos, who got a whopping 10 yards on 7 targets out of Jaylen Waddle, who has been a bust in 2-of-3 games so far.

It’s early, but these teams still seem to be playing that volatile level of ball that could easily implode on them in a big game against a competent opponent.

Ravens at Cowboys: Brazil Gets the Full NFL Experience (Minus Overtime)

The field seemed to hold up fine in Brazil, though the game was fairly defensive for 2.5 quarters before things started to open up more. The Ravens didn’t ignore Derrick Henry in the second half this week, though they may have wished they had gone away from him on a 4th-and-goal from the 1 where he was stuffed for a 3-yard loss with the Ravens up 24-21.

The Cowboys actually turned that into a 96-yard touchdown drive to take the lead, then stuffed Henry again on 3rd-and-1 for a quick three-and-out. That’s when it felt like maybe this day would be different for the predictable Cowboys, who usually lose such a game. But then the offense went three-and-out, and Jackson drove the Ravens 64 yards for the go-ahead touchdown with 1:30 left.

Dak Prescott had the Cowboys driving again, though I think the DPI penalty on Nate Wiggins in coverage with CeeDee Lamb was a terrible call. That’s either OPI, something on both, or let them play and don’t flag anything. They picked the fourth and worst option.

But Dallas did not embrace the moment of the gift. You get first-and-goal at the 2 with one timeout left, you have to get that TD. Settling for the game-tying field goal is not great. Let’s win this now. But the Cowboys didn’t call great plays, they had a big false start penalty, and Prescott just threw the ball away on third down as he was allegedly directed to even though George Pickens appeared wide open in the end zone. Dak just threw it away over him.

I get the sense of caution down there, especially for the new overtime rules that make it fairer. But you have to try to get the touchdown, and I think Dallas missed a big opportunity there. They scored with 7 seconds left, then more mistakes happened.

First, I think the touchback at the 35 is a horrible rule. I know we’re never going back to the 20-yard line as was the standard in the 2000s. I could live with the 30-yard line after a touchback too if it means a few more kick returns. But the 35 is just absurd as you can now complete one pass and suddenly you’re in makeable field-goal range with the way the kickers are these days.

That’s what happened again too. Just when you thought we’d get overtime, the Cowboys kicked it deep, and that’s probably the worst time for Aubrey to have a big leg as it didn’t burn any clock and it put the ball at the Baltimore 35. Lamar Jackson threw a deep pass to Zay Flowers for 27 yards, and they got done with 0:01 left before using that final timeout. The kind of drive you don’t probably get if Flowers was inactive as you’re not trusting Rashod Bateman in that spot.

Can you trust second-year kicker Tyler Loop? A bit easier than his Week 18 gag in Pittsburgh as the playoffs weren’t literally on the line this time. If he missed, the game would have just gone to overtime. That’s why I think it’s a big confidence builder to see him make that one from 56 yards out to lift the Ravens to a 36-30 win.

It wasn’t the prettiest way to get there, but the Ravens didn’t blow another one. But if that ball was 5 yards further back, then you’re looking at a 61-yard field goal. That feels fairer than the 35 and a 27-yard pass getting you right not 56-yard range. Just my pet peeve and something I hope the league reconsiders.

Chargers at Bills: I Think I’m Out on Justin Herbert

As much as I wanted to slot Justin Herbert into the Dan Marino/early Peyton Manning/Drew Brees “Savior” archetype of great quarterbacks, he’s just not that guy anymore. Maybe he never was as his best years were his first two COVID-era years in 2020-21, and the Chargers wasted that potential.

Since then, it’s been a slow decline that we blamed on the turnover of his receivers and offensive line injuries. But in a situation that was supposed to open up the offense this year, Herbert has never been worse on the deep balls, and his decision making looks like that of a guy who is studying Madison Beer instead of his next opponent.

Even with his defense giving him five turnovers (sound familiar?), Herbert lost in Buffalo after throwing this fourth-quarter pick with a chance to add to the lead he did little to build in the first place:

The Bills were having their annual meltdown game with turnovers a bit earlier than usual, and yet Herbert couldn’t take much advantage as the Chargers had no touchdowns on their final 10 drives after starting the game with a 47-yard march after a James Cook fumble.

Josh Allen had the kind of 3-turnover game that reminds you why he’s never been a first-team All-Pro, but he got two more of his 1-yard push touchdowns to pad his total on the year. That was enough combined with a good running game from Cook (154 yards) to close the Chargers with the defense stepping up when it needed to again.

But I don’t actually buy that the Bills won a game they usually lose. They won a game the Chargers always lose. That’s just the truth. Now 0-3, it’s a matter of seeing how bad things can get for Harbaugh and Herbert.

Texans at Colts: Stroud Burnt By the Sun

An AFC South battle to determine who would get a win and who would fall to 0-3. In the end, the Texans took their lumps on the road, burning out in the awful sun-spotted Lucas Oil Stadium after giving up a late lead to Daniel Jones on a game-winning drive after C.J. Stroud had given his team a 17-16 lead with 1:48 left.

For all the hype about Houston’s defense, 2026 just hasn’t been their year. While they did force three takeaways in this game, they couldn’t stop the Colts from using most of the clock on the go-ahead field goal, leaving Stroud with just 11 seconds and no timeouts left to answer. His Hail Mary came up short, and for the second year in a row, the Texans are 0-3.

They obviously rebounded to make the playoffs just as they did from an 0-3 start in 2018 under a different regime. But this is unlikely to happen again, and with Nico Collins out, Stroud just doesn’t have his best weapon and he’s struggling to elevate the remaining receivers.

If Stroud really did turn down a deal worth over $50M, it’s going to probably be a big mistake as his value continues to drop each week while this team keeps losing. As for the Colts, I’m not sure it’s a win to get them on the right path to anywhere meaningful, but it’s good to get a win and avoid 0-3.

Chiefs at Dolphins: Vintage 2021 Chiefs Performance

The Chiefs have to be doing something right if they’re winning by 14 points on the road without playing even a B-game in my view. But the Dolphins being such a weak roster helped with that, and yet this was still a 17-10 game in the fourth quarter as the Chiefs looked like a vintage version of their flawed 2021 selves:

  • Rashee Rice tipped a pass into an interception after Patrick Mahomes hit his first 11 throws.
  • Kenneth Walker is breaking a ton of tackles because the run blocking isn’t good and he’s being met in the backfield often; the Dolphins have defended the run well this year (their only good unit, arguably) and they stuffed the Chiefs several times to keep this close for a while.
  • The Chiefs look like they’re back to a team where Mahomes and Kelce are carrying the load even though Kelce was only targeted on the first play (48 yards) and one of the last for a touchdown to put it away.
  • Mahomes was 20-of-24 with a throwaway and drop despite solid pressure in his face from the Dolphins.
  • Penalties on the offensive line made some drives harder than it used to be (redundant).

It’s a 24-10 win nonetheless, but it still feels a little disappointing given the way they started hot with two touchdown drives on offense. As for the controversial roughing the passer penalty, it’s a moot point. It only got attention because it benefitted the Chiefs even though the dreaded “body weight” rule for roughing has been in place since 2018 and we’ve already seen it applied in other games this year, including Vikings vs. Packers (the original inspiration for it) in Week 1.

Besides, there was a flag for defensive holding on Miami picked up on that play, so it was a first down either way for the Chiefs. I’m more worried that Rice dropped the ball on that play too, though he at least made up for some of his mistakes with 7 catches for 88 yards on the day.

The Chiefs are using more play-action, so that is a positive change for the offense. But if Mahomes and Kelce aren’t playing at a high level, what exactly is this team right now? Guess we’ll find out soon with tougher games to come.

Jets at Lions: The Mentee Can’t Intercept His Mentor

Geno Smith has definitely energized the offense for the Jets, and he’s no stranger to playing shootouts with the Lions in Detroit as he did with Seattle for a few years in a row recently. He threw for 321 yards on 31-of-37 passing in this one, and yet it wasn’t even enough to get to overtime as the Lions held on for the 31-24 win.

Without a running game to support him, Smith put on a good effort to bring the Jets back to a tie before the defense gave up another touchdown drive. Trying to answer, the fifth and final sack of the day forced Smith to cough up the ball with 45 seconds left to end the threat.

But the story here is Aaron Glenn’s New York defense has now gone 20 games without an interception. Since 1940, the only other streaks longer than 10 games belong to the 2024 Giants (11 games) and 2024-25 49ers (14 games). This kind of drought is more possible in today’s game with relatively fewer picks overall, but it’s astonishing that any defense can go 20 games without a pick.

Pure dumb luck should get you one on a fortunate bounce like we see in the NFL every week. I thought Goff would give them one against his team’s former defensive coordinator, but he hasn’t thrown any yet this season.

The Jets will give it another shot in Chicago next week against some kind of backup quarterback with Caleb Williams out 3-4 weeks. At least the offense is watchable this year, but it won’t matter if the defense isn’t getting any takeaways.

Vikings at Buccaneers: Defund the NFC South Pt. 1

At least we know the reason Kevin O’Connell never wins a playoff game is because he uses up all his devil magic to win regular-season games like this. The Vikings are 3-0 but at what cost? Kyler Murray finished this game, Justin Jefferson didn’t, and the offense was messy with 16 points on 13 drives. The reality was even worse than that average as they had great field position for the last two field goals after the Buccaneers punted nine times and threw two picks on their final drives.

Baker Mayfield tried to make something happen on 4th-and-13 deep in his own end, no man’s land, and he dislocated his thumb on the play. That led to rookie Jalon Daniels throwing a Hail Mary interception to end the game, but things were decided before that.

There’s just not much inspired football from the Bucs as the running game wasn’t there, Mayfield took six sacks against the blitz of Brian Flores’ defense, and you’re seeing a coordinator lead his team while a coach like Todd Bowles seems pretty aloof to the team surrounding him going back to late last year.

The Bucs are 2-10 since the bye week last year after a 6-2 start. I believe it’s 12 straight games where they didn’t cover the spread either, so this is underachieving of the highest order. Even in the NFC South, 0-3 is a rough hole to climb out of, and we’ll see what the prognosis is on Mayfield, but his extension is looking like a disaster.

Panthers at Browns: Defund the NFC South Pt. 2

Two teams that are tough to get a read on so far. The Panthers were scoring so well in the first two weeks, then were sitting on four field goals late into the fourth quarter, making it look like Cleveland still had Myles Garrett or something.

The Browns had that horrible Week 1 loss to the Jaguars, but they have calmed down on defense, and Deshaun Watson has found some success with his new receivers. He threw two touchdowns to Harold Fannin in this one, including the game winner with 1:48 left.

I saw a game similar to this playing out, but I thought Bryce Young would lift the Panthers to a GWD in the end. He had his chance, but like in the playoffs against the Rams, Young quickly went four-and-out. Then with one more chance in the final minute to set up a field goal, he threw a desperation interception with 0:09 left.

Suddenly, the 2-1 Browns are hosting the 2-1 Steelers for first place in the AFC North this Thursday night. As for the Panthers, I’m not sure where they go from here.

Raiders at Saints: Defund the NFC South Pt. 3

To end our NFC South trilogy, it looked like another banner day for Tyler Shough and the Saints after he threw four touchdown passes to his tight ends to take a 27-16 lead in the third quarter.

But this was the opposite script of what we’ve seen from him in the NFL as that great start led to a disastrous finish with the Saints turning it over four times in the fourth quarter, including three from Shough (two strip-sacks and a pick). The Raiders really had him in shambles.

Meanwhile, Kirk Cousins had another efficient game with 3 touchdown passes, and the return of Brock Bowers (10-116-1) was a reminder that he is the best in the game going forward at the position.

The Raiders are 3-0 as rookie coach Klint Kubiak is cooking, but we don’t have to wait long to learn just how real and sustainable this start is. The Raiders play the Chiefs, Patriots, Bills, and Rams in the next four games. We’ll review then.

Patriots at Jaguars: The Quarterback, the Schedule, His Coach, and His Lover

Getting blown out on a day no one else did is a bad look for the Patriots as this 35-6 loss was a brutal outcome for all involved. Drake Maye should get the headlines as the quarterback who has struggled for his last seven starts going back to the 2025 playoffs. I knew he’d struggle in the playoffs against real defenses, and I knew he’d have a tougher September against a schedule that wasn’t kind.

But I never imagined he’d be this overwhelmed and bad as the raw numbers don’t even do it justice when you consider the fumbles he didn’t lose. But on Sunday, he had some bad luck where a ball just came right out of his hand for a fumble when he was hoping to throw. Not that he was throwing it well in this game. Meanwhile, Trevor Lawrence had a nice day and saved his best throws for the red zone to cap off several drives.

However, Lawrence took the weirdest dive I think I’ve ever seen when he had a sure touchdown for the taking. There were just under 9:00 left with the Jaguars up 28-6, and Lawrence slowed down after breaking through tackles to take a knee at the 1-yard line instead of scoring to make it 35-6.

After the game, he mentioned he probably should have scored, then joked about Tuten’s fantasy scoring. Tuten ended up running in the 1-yard touchdown on the next snap anyway, so no harm there. But just a weird decision all around. Are you really that worried about the clock? I know New England was down 28-3 in the third quarter, but you’re playing The Adulterer and The Schedule, not The LOAT x2. Just score, man.

All we’re missing is some $1M position on Kalshi that Lawrence would NOT score a touchdown to make this a gambling conspiracy. But the Jaguars got the easy win while the Patriots are going to have to step up all around with Buffalo next.

Seahawks at Commanders: That Resets Expectations

I thought Seattle had a defense that was so reliable that you could lean on this unit to get through a rough patch even with Drew Lock replacing Sam Darnold. But despite Darnold’s return on Sunday and the Commanders starting veteran Marcus Mariota for an injured Jayden Daniels (elbow), Sunday was the day’s big upset as the Commanders took it to them in a 33-31 final.

As it turns out, maybe Jaxon Smith-Njigba is the most consistent part of this team as JSN put up 10/128/2 on 14 targets with Darnold back. JSN is having another elite season, but is it coming even more at the expense of the rest of the offense? The running game certainly didn’t show up (17 carries for 39 yards), and Darnold threw a bad pick-six in the fourth quarter when it was 27-24. They tried chasing that touchdown back the rest of the game.

 But I’m not sure I’d freak out too much about the 27 points the defense allowed here. The Commanders had touchdown drives of 21 and 43 yards, which were set up on short fields by the offensive turnovers. The Commanders didn’t run well (32 carries for 82 yards), but it is troublesome that Mariota was efficient with three touchdown passes.

Then again, Mariota always seems to play well for the Commanders when he has to assume the job. I don’t know if it’s the kind of win that can prevent a lost season in Washington, but Dan Quinn needed this one badly and got it when we least expected it.

The loss ended up not hurting the Seahawks that badly since the Rams also lost on Sunday night.

Cardinals at 49ers: Brock Purdy MVP Campaign?

I’ve established the NFL has a Big 3 at quarterback in Mahomes, Allen, and Jackson. But if you’re going to pick who that No. 4 guy is, based on achievement, consistency, efficiency, impact, and the full body of work, I think 2026 is the season where Brock Purdy can earn that distinction.

He already had an MVP-caliber year in 2023 where schedule sequencing did him in. If the Baltimore game was in Week 4 instead of Christmas, and the game where he shredded the Eagles was on Christmas, he probably wins that MVP.

But I’m not going to talk about who deserves the 2026 MVP after Week 3. I’m just going to say that Purdy has probably been the most consistent, high-efficiency quarterback through Week 3, and if he can keep up a level of play like this while the schedule gets tougher and the injuries keep mounting up for the 49ers (Mike Evans left this game early), then the narrative will be there for a Purdy MVP campaign.

They won this game against Arizona by a final score of 36-30, and even though Arizona never had a possession down one score in the final three quarters, they kept the pressure on the 49ers. But Purdy kept answering, and while the play didn’t count as a touchdown because of a holding penalty on George Kittle at the end, Purdy had a 45-yard touchdown run that showed more athleticism with his legs than anything I’ve ever seen from the likes of Joe Burrow or Justin Herbert, the quarterbacks he’s competing with for that No. 4 spot behind the Big 3.

He finished that drive with a 20-yard touchdown pass to Kittle anyway, so no harm done on the penalty. The 49ers also started the day with a 3rd-and-12 designed lateral that got the ball in the hands of Deebo Samuel, who took it 80 yards for a touchdown. But since he never got a real catch in the game or even a target, he finished the game with 80 receiving yards and a touchdown on 0 catches (0/80/1) – a true stat oddity in NFL history.

The previous known record for receiving yards without a catch, at least based on available data, was 65 yards for Timmy Brown on the 1961 Eagles against the Steelers. I actually tracked down the video too and it’s funny.

It has to be alarming the rate of injuries that are piling up for the 49ers, but as long as Purdy is upright, you feel like he can make this work as he’s playing at a really high level right now in his fifth season.

Titans at Giants: Cam Ward, the Nonchalant Bust

With the Titans starting 0-3, I think these last few games show us why this team gets buried in the 1 PM Sunday window instead of any national games, why the Jets fired Robert Saleh, and why the Giants fired Brian Daboll. They are a terrible football team right now, and this 12-7 dud against the Giants featured two plays that could even define the Cam Ward era in Tennessee.

First, what is this nonchalant pocket walking when you’re down 12-0? Did you not see the hit Jaxson Dart took last week to end his season? You can’t possibly think this is a good idea to test the speed of NFL pass rushers by being so casual back there.

Maybe Mahomes could get away with that and even make it look cool by making a play, but that’s not for Ward. By the way, that drive ended with three straight incompletions from the Giants’ 7 for a turnover on downs. Fun.

Then when Ward needed to be more decisive and possibly scramble for all he can get with two timeouts in his pocket in the closing seconds of a 12-7 deficit, he decided to throw and threw a horrific game-ending interception.

I wanted to give Ward a fair shake and try to see the positives weighed against the negatives of his situation. But the guy just does nothing to elevate or excite his team. This is why the Titans were a flagship member of the Three Stooges of Who Gives a Fuck? Right there with the Washington franchise and then take your pick of Brady and Belichick’s AFC East Stooges (just not Buffalo anymore).

Blow it up in Tennessee and start fresh again in 2027 if this continues.

Next Week

Thursday night is Steelers vs. Browns with both teams having a winning record. We almost never see that. Colts-Commanders to start Sunday overseas is not a game that’ll get me up at 9:30 AM. But I’m sure I’ll catch the end of it.

The 1 PM slate has Patriots-Bills, Rams-Eagles, and Jags-Bengals. All interesting games where we’ll see if 2025 repeats itself in those matchups. Denver at San Francisco isn’t bad in the late window, but Chiefs at Raiders with both 3-0 is a first for that rivalry. We’ll see if the Chiefs can reestablish their AFC West superiority against a team that’s been scoring to start the year under Kubiak. Should be a good one.

Detroit at Carolina is not good for SNF on a day with so many better choices, but maybe the Panthers can get some scoring going. Saints-Falcons on MNF in the Superdome could be the game that actually launches one of these NFC South bums on the path to a division title. The only question is will they get to 9 wins or are we headed for another 2010 NFC West or 2020 NFC East situation? I’m warming up to the idea of Atlanta, but we need to see more from Penix.

2026 NFL Stat Oddity: Week 2

NFL Stat Oddity 2026
~ Scott ~ 7 Comments

This is a throwback to the 2010s when I used to post my NFL recap column (starting with Captain Comeback in 2011) on Tuesdays before I started doing it here for Monday morning. I learned you can do it a lot faster when you’re not trying to painstakingly recap the play-by-play on those critical drives, creating GIFs and all the other stuff I did to crank out super-long pieces every week.

But I had other work to finish for Monday, so this is a day later for hopefully the only time this season, and I also wanted to write about MNF as I really did anticipate that matchup between the Rams and Giants.

Naturally, the game was a bust after Jaxson Dart was knocked out on the first drive with a knee injury (sprained MCL, allegedly) that fortunately wasn’t a season-ending ligament tear.

But that was the story of this weekend. Quarterback injuries and the defenses fighting back in a big way after a record-setting scoring number in Week 1. Caleb Williams and Jayden Daniels were injured on freak-accident plays. The NFC already has been without Sam Darnold and Kyler Murray after they were injured early in Week 1, and the Falcons subjected us to watching Cooper Rush start for two weeks as a third-string quarterback.

That’s already six quarterbacks down in the NFC, and the only miracle is maybe none of them are season-ending injuries. Still, it’s a bummer as a lot of them are young players trying to lift their teams up to relevancy.

Meanwhile, things in the AFC felt like a return to normal:

  • Buffalo getting “Super Bowl bound! Best QB ever!” hype after blowing out a bad defense on TNF in September.
  • Kansas City winning a 33-30 overtime game where the passing game carried the team.
  • Bo Nix in his element, getting a fourth-quarter comeback after trailing 13-6.
  • The Chargers shitting their pants at home to lose 26-14 for the second week in a row.
  • The Dolphins looking like one of the worst teams ever in September before they inevitably find a way to the most meaningless 6 wins ever.
  • The Steelers looking totally lost on offense and embarrassing themselves in New England.
  • And the Baltimore Ravens choking away a double-digit lead at home.

Ooooo, and it’s alright and it’s comin’ on

We gotta get right back to where we started from

We’re back to normal. But I would point out this season is off to a slow start in close games. We had seven games with a comeback opportunity in Week 1, then eight this week. That’s 15/32 (46.9%). But there were six game-winning drives in Week 2, so that counts for something.

I’m not going to get too in the weeds about games from Sunday, but here are my thoughts on a difficult week for scoring and injuries. I said on Saturday in the predictions piece that these injuries are really mounting up at receiver, and when you throw in some rain in some of these games, it’s not that surprising it ended up being an offensive dud.

Minus Sunday night, of course.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Colts at Chiefs: Game of the Week

I don’t know if the Chiefs will win the Super Bowl this year. But after Sunday night and some of the things that have happened around the NFL, I’m back to believing they can. As long as you have Patrick Mahomes playing like this, you always have that chance.

After his return game was one of his least effective in his career from a passing standpoint, Mahomes ripped it all over the field on Sunday night, leading the offense to 523 yards in a 33-30 overtime win where he picked up his 11th multiple game-winning drive (mGWD; the NFL record is 12).

Mahomes threw for 382 yards despite some big drops from his top receivers. He came through in the clutch multiple times just as he did against the Colts last year in the only close game the 2025 Chiefs won (0-10 otherwise; 0-8 with Mahomes otherwise). So, there’s some déjà vu to this one as we can put to rest the Lou Anarumo angle after Mahomes beat his defense for the fifth year in a row.

But the arm looked healthy, accurate and decisive, and still the most clutch quarterback in the game as you saw on the 3rd-and-12 in overtime for a 30-yard gain to Tyquan Thornton, the savior in this offense with the flaws Rice and Worthy have. Then Travis Kelce also looked vintage with 9/101/1. Another impressive outing for Kenneth Walker too (178 YFS).

This was the most 2018-22 Chiefs game we’ve seen since 2023, and that’s also because of what happened on the other sides of the ball. It’s your classic Spags game: You give up 30 points to an offense that lost its best receiver (Pierce) early, you get no sacks on Daniel Jones, Jonathan Taylor had some nice runs, but you get some credit for not giving up a touchdown in overtime after the Colts turtled following the overturned fumble. I also agree with Mahomes that it’s great they overturned that as the refs controversy shit would be over the top the rest of the year.

But the Chiefs had a lot of penalties (8-86), more special teams errors, Butker missed a kick (but made the biggest ones). I guess the only thing missing was the obligatory fumble, but games like this is what made the Chiefs so fun to watch in 2018-22, and their absence from 2023-25 made things a difficult grind. Not that this wasn’t a grind and tough win too. It just feels different when the offense is moving like this.

But this is Kansas City, and as long as you have that quarterback upright, they can beat anyone anywhere. After watching Baltimore blow another lead at home, and after watching the Bills give up 31 to Houston and Detroit, are you really going to bet against Mahomes if it comes down to those matchups again?

Plenty of directions this season can go from here, but Sunday night proved that Mahomes can still get it done at the highest level, still can throw it deep when he needs to, and he can still run when he has to have it or to protect himself.

He’s still the best to do it.

Giants at Rams: Dodge Dart

(That’s a Kind of Like Spitting reference, FTR)

This game had so much upset potential with how good the Giants looked in Week 1, how bad the Rams were in Australia, then you throw in the two biggest non-quarterback injuries the Rams could least afford (Myles Garrett and Puka Nacua) and 0-2 was a real possibility for the Super Bowl favorites.

Then Jaxson Dart injured his knee on the opening drive, and it was as if the life was sucked out of the team, and not in a fun way (“Big Blue Meets Bonnie Blue”). Backup Jameis Winston is usually good for a couple of touchdowns and interceptions, but even he couldn’t get them into the end zone in a snoozer of a 28-6 final. I guess Australia might have just been the travel fatigue and that will be the worst version you see all year of this team.

My apologizes to Davante Adams for even questioning if he was washed, because he played one of the best games I’ve ever seen him have, barely missing 200 yards with two scores. With the way Stafford and Adams were shredding that defense, I’m not sure if it would have mattered if Dart played the whole game. Maybe that injury demoralized the whole team, but it’s more likely this game just showed there is still a wide gap between the two, and beating up Dallas in Week 1 isn’t indicative of a team ready for a deep run.

But it would have been fun to see what Dart could do against a real contender. I always joke about Dart’s rivalry with the blue medical tent because of his reckless play, but it’s hard to fault him for trying to throw from the pocket when he got injured. Just a bad collision after he got the ball away. The good news is he avoided the ACL from the early reports, so if it’s an MCL sprain, we’ll see him again soon. But what will the team’s record be by that point?

Didn’t see anything from Aaron Donald, but when you’re away from the game for that long, it’s going to take more than a game to shake off the rust. He’ll be fine. The Rams were nowhere near fully loaded and still crushed a team 28-6. That’s encouraging for the Super Bowl picks.

Still, the Dart injury was a bummer to end the week after mostly all bad games on Sunday.

Saints at Ravens: See, Jesse Minter IS a Harbaugh

You can’t even chalk this one up to more “Tyler Shough and Awe” in the fourth quarter. This is just what the Ravens do, year after year. I caught some flak earlier this year when I said the Ravens hiring Jesse Minter was like hiring a younger Harbaugh the way he’s stalked John and Jim around different jobs the last decade. He’s like a Harbaugh nepo baby without the blood genes.

But I was told he’s younger and things would be different. Yet, in the first real chance he had at it, he blew a double-digit home lead just like John Harbaugh would.

  • The Ravens were outscored 15-0 in the fourth quarter.
  • Shough was 27-of-34 for 252 yards and led scoring drives on 5-of-6 drives to end the game.
  • Derrick Henry had just 5 carries in the second half after he had 11 carries for 51 yards and a touchdown in the first half (consistent gains as his long run was 8 yards).
  • Henry had 14 successful runs on 16 carries, and yet they got away from him while the offense couldn’t move the ball in the second half.
  • Tied 17-17 in the fourth quarter after the defense was flagged for holding that led to a game-tying 2PC for the Saints, the Ravens faced a 3rd-and-1 at their 37. Jackson threw deep instead of going back to Henry, then they punted.
  • With 8:06 left, the Saints burned 6:38 and scored the game-winning touchdown on a Shough sneak on 4th-and-goal from the 1 with 1:28 left.

Do I think Shough actually broke the plane and scored? No, not from the few angles I saw. Do I think the Ravens were screwed? No, they were actually helped by this since the refs didn’t call an obvious facemask on the player pulling down Shough. That would have made it first and goal, and the Saints would have ran the clock down (Baltimore out of timeouts) and kicked the short field goal on the final play to win 20-17.

Calling that a Shough touchdown actually saved the offense time to get a drive. But this is a spot where I think Jackson has underwhelmed in his career where you absolutely need a touchdown in the final minutes.

I’m not surprised he didn’t get it done again, ending with an ugly interception that probably looks less ugly if the target wasn’t an oblivious Rashod Bateman, the de-facto WR1 for the day because of Zay Flowers’ injury. Bateman is like the Xavier Worthy of the Baltimore offense. A first-round pick that really shouldn’t have been, he just never has developed a great chemistry with Jackson. They had numbers together in this game, but when it came time to close and then time to tie, they couldn’t connect and I think Jackson put a little too much on the last pass that caused it to sail over a receiver barely looking for it. Because that’s who Bateman is in this offense.

You add it all together, and you get yet another blown double-digit lead at home for the Ravens. Can’t blame this one on Harbaugh too unless you want to acknowledge they hired the closest thing they can to a younger version of Harbaugh.

Bengals at Texans: Stroud of Mystery

Man, what another weird f’n game with the 2026 Bengals. Last week, they recovered four fumbles against Tampa Bay. This time, they let C.J. Stroud throw for 353 yards on 55 attempts, no interceptions, and somehow the Texans only scored 6 points.

That’s never been done before in NFL history. A quarterback throwing for 350+, no picks, and his team scored fewer than 10 points. Never happened until Sunday, and the fact that they let Stroud throw 55 passes in a game without Nico Collins and a game they never trailed by more than 14 is preposterous. Stroud also led the team with 29 rushing yards as David Montgomery had 6 carries for 10 yards. Are we supposed to believe the line was really that outmatched up front against Dexter Lawrence and company? I have a hard time buying that.

The Cincinnati offense was about what you’d expect. Joe Burrow took 5 sacks against a proud pass rush, but Ja’Marr Chase showed why he’s arguably the best there is with two touchdowns, including one beauty for the highlight reels. But Chase and Higgins had almost 85% of Burrow’s passing yardage.

This game was put on Stroud, and 6 points on 13 drives with no turnovers and only one missed field goal is wild stuff. Granted, they were 0-for-4 on fourth down, the hidden turnovers in the box score. But what a strange gameplan from the Texans.

Packers at Jets: New York Errors

After two weeks, I get the sense the Packers are going to be worse than expected and the Jets better than expected this season. New York really should have won this game instead of blowing a 10-point 4Q lead and losing overtime. I noticed in Week 1 the way they were controlling the ball in Tennessee, and they were doing it here. The final margin in time of possession was 37:40 to 26:57 but the Jets also held the Packers to 1-of-9 on third down and 0-of-1 on fourth down.

The Jets are just the second home team since 1991 to lose a game after:

  • Scored 17+ points
  • Converted 8+ third downs
  • Allowed 0-1 third down conversions
  • At least 37:00 time of possession

Teams in this situation are now 69-2 since 1991. The other loss was the Colts in the 1995 opener against Cincinnati, and that was different since they were down 21-10 in the fourth quarter and forced overtime before losing. The Jets blew the double-digit lead here.

But I guess the Packers have been here before under Matt LaFleur and Jordan Love.

But Aaron Glenn is going to keep costing the Jets games like this. Up 10, they gave up 38 yards on a DPI penalty to wipe out a 1st-and-25 situation. Tied at the 2:00 warning, they try to run on 3rd-and-2, didn’t get it, then failed on a 4th-and-1 run at midfield that could have easily cost them the game in regulation if the Packers didn’t go 4-and-out. I think you have to let Geno throw on that 3rd-and-2, then you can work on the clock and setting up the last-second FG.

In overtime, Smith took two straight sacks to kill that drive on a three-and-out. But why would you even choose to receive first in overtime? You’re the home team, you’ve been moving the ball all day while Love struggled to get chunk plays. Force the Packers to go first with the constraints of conservative three-down football, then you can answer with four-down football, knowing exactly what you need.

But the Jets went three-and-out, and the Packers only needed a couple of first downs to get in range for the 26-yard field goal. Cue another stupid 15-yard flag on Glenn’s defense to help it along too, a unit that still doesn’t have an interception in his 19 games.

Vikings at Bears: Cancel the Ben Johnson Statue

When I wrote about Week 2 reversion from Week 1’s high scoring, I never thought 9-3 was a possibility in Chicago a week after 59-37 in Carolina. I need to start paying more attention to the weather reports even in September for some of these games, but some rain still shouldn’t have been enough to produce such a ridiculously low score here. Don’t forget the Bears can run the ball with multiple 100-yard rushers last week.

But what a tough day for the Bears in the face of Brian Flores’ mad blitzing ways. The Bears had 10 drives that ended in:

  • Four punts
  • One FG
  • One blocked FG
  • One interception
  • One Swift fumble at the MIN 1 on 1st-and-goal in the third quarter (killer)
  • One end of half after Williams took a sack after having 0:20 left to work with
  • One turnover on downs to end the game on a fourth-down sack

It’s not like the Bears couldn’t do anything (297 yards and 17 first downs). They just didn’t finish enough drives, and the Swift fumble and blocked FG were real killers.

But the game will likely be remembered best for the Caleb Williams injury. Just a freak accident where he tried to dodge a sack from behind and pulled up after blowing a hamstring. My question would be, should they have just kicked the 26-yard field goal on 4th-and-1 on the previous snap with 8:30 left in a 6-3 game?

Anymore, coaches turn down the field goal to go for it, but it’s not like the game was hanging in the balance on that drive. It was 6-3. There’d be another possession. I think coaches are getting a little too caught up in taking the lead when you can tie it and change the game state that way. Also note that four plays later, he ended up having to kick the tying field goal anyway. It just cost him his quarterback and a full 2:00 off the clock.

Of course, you still have to make the kick, which didn’t happen because of a block. The Vikings actually put together a long drive to get a field goal to make it 9-3, then Tyson Bagent only had 1:00 to go get a touchdown with no timeouts. I thought he did an impressive job to give them a shot from the 12. Just couldn’t cover those final 12 yards in the red zone as Flores’ defense delivered one more time.

While the Bears think about their quarterback situation, what are the Vikings thinking these days? They’re the first team in NFL history to win four straight games with four different starting quarterbacks (Max Brosmer, J.J. McCarthy, Kyler Murray, Carson Wentz). This might be one of the more fraudulent 2-0 starts we’ve seen, but we’ve seen Kevin O’Connell find weird ways to win these close games before.

But what a brutal day for Chicago that I guess could have been worse.

Steelers at Patriots: Darkness Retreat Sounds Good About Now

Aaron Rodgers might be retiring sooner than later if more games like Sunday happen. He was bad, the coaching was bad, the receivers (especially D.K. Metcalf) were awful, the running game didn’t exist, and the offensive line was abysmal.

I think they covered up the line last year with Rodgers getting the ball out short and fast to the running backs and tight ends. This year, Metcalf is dropping all the important balls, Michael Pittman Jr. was already out with an injury, and rookie Germie Bernard looked good until he bobbled a pass in the red zone that went down as an interception for Rodgers, which I’m sure pisses him off since he complained for six days about the drops and flags he didn’t get in Week 1.

Teams see they can’t run and they can just tee off on him right now. It’s a mess, and it’s somehow worse than what they looked like last year. The defense was fine on Sunday outside of the long touchdown run given up to TreVeyon Henderson. He can do that though.

But I thought Drake Maye had another struggle game. T.J. Watt is playing great in this new defense. The only reason they had a chance in the second half was this defense. Maye followed up his best throw with a bad pick, his fourth already. Still taking 3 sacks a week this year. He needs to get right, but at least Romeo Doubs pulled in a big catch to show he’s not worthless.

Still, 23 points in eight quarters for the New England offense. That still sounds better than the 8.0 points per game the Steelers’ offense has.

Browns at Buccaneers: Nasty Business

The early returns on the 2026 Buccaneers are horrific. Baker Mayfield is playing some of his worst ball after he got thoroughly outplayed at home by Deshaun Watson on the other side, and it’s not like the Browns still have Myles Garrett on defense. I expected him to come out of that long weather delay and immediately throw a pick. Instead, he just couldn’t find anything and the Bucs turned it over on downs in a 23-19 loss.

Then you have a bad defense for Todd Bowles, not much going for rookie Rueben Bain Jr., and this 0-2 team is fortunate to be playing in the NFC South.

They even let Watson get this done without a running game as he led the team with 22 rushing yards. The rest of his team had 16 carries for 22 yards. A carry job by Predator.

This is why it’s better to fire a coach a year early than a year late.

Commanders at Cowboys: “Shit” Indeed, Tom Brady

It’s funny how FOX paid Tom Brady $37.5M per year just to call shitty NFC East games every week where he even dropped a “Shit!” on air after the replay of Jayden Daniels’ nasty elbow injury before halftime.

What’s not funny is that I think Dan Quinn just screwed his team’s season and his quarterback’s health for the second year in a row. It was keeping him in a blowout vs. Seattle last year when he was injured, then they rushed him back. On Sunday, it was 3rd-and-goal at the 1 with 0:03 left in the half, Washington down 17-10.

You’re getting the ball to start the third quarter. Knowing that fact, kick the FG, make it 17-13, then go get more in the second half. Plenty of game left. The whole mechanism of this play f’n stunk as it doesn’t look like anyone on Washington ever tried to run a route. What was Daniels supposed to do if he didn’t trip on his lineman’s foot?

He tried to protect himself, injured his elbow, and it just never should have happened. They’re doing him worse than this franchise did RG3.

As for Dallas, what can I say? Dak was great, but he usually is against Washington. I need to see something new. Dan Quinn will not be the coach of the Commanders in 2027.

Jaguars at Broncos: Bo Nix in His Element

The Broncos picked up their first win with another low-scoring 4QC led by Bo Nix, who turned a 13-6 deficit into a 20-13 win. It’s a familiar script from 2025, and they turned around their 34-20 loss to Jacksonville with a much better game defensively and arguably a weaker one on offense.

At least Jayden Waddle came through with over 100 yards, but it doesn’t seem like they are getting Courtland Sutton going this year with Waddle there now. They’ve still got a long way to go offensively, but the rookie back (Coleman) made some promising plays.

The Jaguars are leaning heavily on Parker Washington right now, which makes sense when he’s playing well and you’re playing a team with Surtain at corner. But at some point you have to get Jakobi Meyers and Brian Thomas Jr. involved too. Not much from the running game either as Tuten is no Kenneth Walker, and the Broncos didn’t have a historically-bad tackling game this time.

But we’ll need to see better from both teams in Week 3. Jags host the Pats, and Broncos host the Rams on SNF.

Seahawks at Cardinals: JSN Couldn’t Resist the Pretty End Zone

Not sure how or why my mind works this way, but I wrote that title because I was thinking of the unique paint job the Arizona grounds team used in this game, and that Jaxon Smith-Njigba couldn’t resist visiting it three times. You know, the same way demon pastor Kenneth Copeland “couldn’t help but buy” that private jet cause they “made it so cheap for me.”

Yep, that’s somehow my reference point here. ‘They made that end zone so pretty for me, I couldn’t help but visit it three times.” – JSN

Also, is it wrong that my first thought after this game ended Sunday was confirmation that the Chargers really suck? They made this Arizona team look good while the Seahawks, even with Drew Lock starting, just embarrassed them in a similar fashion to last year where the defense shut down Jacoby Brissett, and JSN proved he is quarterback-proof with 9/155/3.

The Seattle defense is still very much a problem for the rest of the NFL. Onto the next.

Eagles at Titans: The Good and Bad of Jalen Hurts

I thought Jalen Hurts played really well outside of the two picks. Great on third downs, and another game-winning drive with a clutch touchdown in the final seconds to a receiver no one heard of – legitimately, not the fake 2001-06 Tom Brady narrative. Just clean up the mistakes, do more damage on early downs.

Much better fight from Cam Ward and the Titans over Week 1. Obviously still a tough defensive matchup for him. Tough loss but a step in the right direction.

Raiders at Chargers: Ruh-Roh, San Diego

Justin Herbert has not been good since the calendar turned to 2026. On the one hand, if I had my choice of spending extra hours watching “Cardinals/Raiders film” or spending hours of direct contact with Madison Beer, I’m choosing the latter every single night. Ladd McConkey probably open somewhere. Johnston too. And even if I throw to the open guy, he still might tip it up in the air for an interception. So, screw it. I’m enjoying life.

No doubt, the Chargers have been the most disappointing team through what was supposed to be their two easiest games. Herbert’s been bad, but as much as I don’t want to be his apologist anymore, this latest 26-14 home loss as a big favorite actually is easy to defend for him. It just is as much as I hate to admit it.

  • I just showed you the first pick that was a perfect throw on third down to David Njoku on a deep ball. Should have been a conversion and likely scoring drive. Damn Cleveland players.
  • The first drive of the game was a 58-yard missed field goal by Dicker the Kicker. Isn’t he supposed to be great?
  • He started the second half with a 74-yard touchdown drive.
  • Now behind 17-14, a drive was ruined in short yardage with a 1-yard run on 2nd-and-2 followed by an aborted snap from the center (Slaughter). Punt.
  • That combo of line + failed running game in short yardage ruined the next drive with a holding penalty (1st-and-20), then Hampton ran for no gain on 3rd-and-2. Another punt.
  • Driving to midfield with 3:52 left before Hampton goes all Melvin Gordon with the choke-time fumble, leading to a 16-yard touchdown drive for the Raiders.
  • Now you’re down 24-14 with 2:59 left, a near-impossible hole to dig out of, and Herbert throws his second pick on a 3rd-and-11 heave.
  • He gets the ball back deep in his own end (94 yards to go), and holding in the end zone by Joe Alt leads to a safety. Game over.

That sounds like a piss-poor team effort instead of the quarterback letting them down. I think Week 1 was worse than this for Herbert. Now he’s got to play at Buffalo this week, so good luck avoiding 0-3. If they couldn’t beat the Cardinals and Raiders at home, I hate to think what that final record is going to be for the team I picked to go 11-6 and win the division.

Obviously, I’d pick the Chiefs now, but I thought that Mike McDaniel and the healthier offensive tackles would make the difference here. I also always believed in Jim Harbaugh’s coaching, and I’ve believed in Herbert since 2020. But this season has been a disaster and we may not have seen rock bottom yet.

Yet, Herbert gets to go home and rock that bott-You get the idea. He’s not unlucky off the field at least.

Raiders are probably the biggest 2-0 fool’s gold in the league right now, but good on Klint Kubiak to take advantage of the opportunity.

Dolphins at 49ers: Purdy Perfection

This was just a 14-6 game at halftime because it was on pace for just 10 possessions. The Dolphins kicked three field goals (missed one), and the 49ers had two long touchdown drives. That would have been incredible if they kept that pace, but in the second half, the Dolphins never scored again while the 49ers went 5-for-5 at scoring touchdowns before eschewing the perfect game with a big lead and punting twice before running out the clock.

An easy 35-13 win where Brock Purdy was 20-of-22 for 287 yards, 2 TDs, and no sacks. He also had 30 rushing yards (rest of team: 65) and a touchdown on the ground, giving him a 99.7 QBR, which apparently ranks as the No. 8 game since 2006. But if you look at the list, Purdy is the only quarterback in the top 15 to have at least 11 EPA in his game.

Going to be a long season for Miami. With the 49ers, I just worry they’re losing too many receivers after Demarcus Robinson left injured in this one.

Panthers at Falcons: Maybe Atlanta Should Trade for Bryce Young…

The Mercedes-Benz Stadium seems to bring out the best in Bryce Young, even going back to his days at Alabama:

  • Bryce Young’s 1st NCAAF Start: A 44-13 win vs. Miami where Young was 27-of-38 for 344 yards, 4 TD, 0 INT.
  • 2021 SEC Championship Game: A 41-24 win over 12-0 Georgia where Young was 26-of-44 for 421 yards, 3 TD, 0 INT, 40 rushing yards, 1 rushing TD.
  • 2024 Season at Atlanta: 251 yards and 3 TDs with 0 INT in a 44-38 overtime win, his only NFL win when Carolina allowed more than 30 points.
  • 2025 Season at Atlanta: Led a 14-point comeback in a 30-27 OT win where he was 31-of-45 for a career-high 448 yards, 3 TD, 0 INT.
  • 2026 Season at Atlanta: Easy 34-3 win where he was 23-of-36 for 287 yards, 3 TD, 0 INT.

His first NFL start was also in that building, and that one didn’t go well. But we can give him a pass for that. Maybe the Falcons need to ditch their quarterback calamity and trade for Young so he can play in HIS building half the year. I’m not even joking that much.

A joke would be starting your first two games with Cooper Rush at quarterback. Fortunately, we should see Penix on Thursday night.

Next Week

I just finished my Week 3 preview of the top five games, and [Bernthal voice] let me tell you something, it’s not a good slate. The closest thing to a marquee game is SNF (Rams at Broncos), and the Rams really haven’t played a watchable game yet as this will be their third straight in prime time (locally, at least). But we’re being subjected to the Falcons in prime time a lot in the coming weeks, so at least it’s going to be Michael Penix Jr. in Green Bay on Thursday night.

Sunday, Chargers at Buffalo should have been good, but I ended up not even writing about it since I don’t expect much from the 0-2 team that couldn’t beat the Raiders and Cardinals at home. Jags-Patriots is interesting, Steelers are in a bad matchup with the Bengals, and the Chiefs need to plaster Miami in their first road game this season.

Baltimore at Dallas, the field could be compromised in Brazil. But that’s potentially a good one in the late-afternoon window. Eagles-Bears, let’s just say I’m intrigued by the thought of what Tyson Bagent can do in Ben Johnson’s offense. He won’t go off script like Caleb, so Ben might have to Neuralink this one and get the backup to throw it exactly where he wants. Could be interesting.

2026 NFL Stat Oddity: Week 1

NFL Stat Oddity 2026
~ Scott ~ 8 Comments

I saved this Word document as “Close Encounters – Week 1” after forgetting I’ve given this weekly NFL recap a totally different name than the one I always wanted to use going back to even 2013. But this is Stat Oddity, and we may have just started the 2026 season with the highest-scoring Week 1 in the Super Bowl era.

Or maybe it’s the highest-scoring Week 1 Sunday since 1970 as we want to forget Wednesday and Thursday happened (and for good reason). Either way, the 10 new head coaches and 21 new offensive coordinators led to a lot of points but not a ton of dramatic finishes. We’ve had 7-of-15 games with a comeback opportunity (four successes), though three games did end with a game-sealing drive (Steelers vs. Falcons, Bengals vs. Buccaneers, and Giants vs. Cowboys), and that’s a stat I’d like to cover more thoroughly later this season.

While Week 1 isn’t everything, I think it’s important to make a good early impression and show that it is a new year and things are going to be different. The Cardinals, Ravens, and Giants got that memo. Not so much for the Browns, Titans, Chargers, Packers, and Cowboys. And despite Week 1 wins, I’m not sure the Bills, Steelers, Bengals, and Lions should feel overly confident just yet.

Let’s recap the 13 Sunday games from Week 1.

Bills at Texans: Game of the Week

If you watched DeMeco Ryans’ Houston defense take on Joe Brady’s Buffalo offense the last two seasons, then Sunday’s game was culture shock:

  • Josh Allen wasn’t 9-of-30 passing or dropped for 8 sacks this time; he was 20-of-29 for 334 yards, 2 sacks, and one of the most vertical games of his career with Dalton Kincaid (130) and D.J. Moore having huge games.
  • C.J. Stroud didn’t even play in last year’s win (Davis Mills did), but he had one of his better games here with 26-of-38 passing for 274 yards, 2 touchdowns, and no picks after his ugly postseason run in January stalled contract extension talks for this season.
  • Houston’s new running back, David Montgomery, had 79 total yards and scored 3 touchdowns.
  • It was 24-21 at halftime, a higher-scoring game than these teams have had in four full meetings in Houston in the Allen era.

But I hope this game doesn’t have a huge impact on the AFC playoff standings or the MVP race or Coach of the Year race, because the beginning and end were frankly ridiculous on both sides, and it exposed some of the reasons I still wouldn’t trust either team in January to win the conference and get to the Super Bowl.

Sure, the middle was back and forth, lots more scoring than usual for these teams when they match up, and exciting to watch. But that’s not a good sign for Buffalo’s defense in its first game without Sean McDermott that you’re letting Stroud light you up for 31 points, or that he was 9 yards away from scoring 38. Where’s all this aggression we’re supposed to see from new coordinator Jim Leonhard?

Allen started the game with a terrible 2-yard loss on 4th-and-1 in scoring territory, then they already resorted to their 3rd-and-long lateral play just to put together a 4-yard field goal drive to start the scoring after Stroud lost a fumble on the third play for Houston.

But the last 6:38 really fry me from both sides:

  • Down 31-30, Allen fumbles the snap and is fortunate to recover, leading to a quick three-and-out.
  • The Texans know a 1-point lead isn’t good for shit and they may not even see the ball again, and yet they do the ultra-conservative move of run/run/pass before their own three-and-out.
  • On what became a 96-yard game-winning touchdown drive for Buffalo, James Cook fumbled on the first run and Buffalo’s incredible fumble luck struck again as they recovered this one in the open field.
  • After getting to the Houston 34, Allen decided to throw a deep ball for the end zone with 1:48 left instead of working the clock to try to set up a field goal as the final snap, and it ended up being an atrocious dropped interception by Kamari Lassiter.

I’m not going to call it an obvious game-ender since the Bills still had three timeouts and enough time to get the ball back in a 1-point game. But it absolutely could have won the game for Houston, and he just dropped it. Then one play later he gets beat on the coverage for a touchdown to Josh Palmer. Then like clockwork, the Bills screwed up another 2PC, so they left themselves vulnerable at 36-31 to lose to a touchdown.

And since the Bills went for the chunk plays again, Stroud had plenty of time to make a legacy drive with 91 seconds, two timeouts, and 71 yards to go. We haven’t really seen him do this since that great drive to beat Tampa Bay in his rookie year, but the problem there is Stroud almost never pulls off these drives in the NFL. He’s now 2-11 at 4QC opportunities in his career.

But this could have been his moment in a big game to start the season on a high note. It looked like he might do it after getting the Texans to the 9-yard line with 25 seconds left after more breakdowns in Buffalo’s secondary. But then Stroud just ate a sack, lost 9 yards, and had to burn the last timeout. That’s the kind of play where your quarterback has to send the ball through the eighth row. Just inexcusable to take a sack.

Then two plays later with the game on the line from the 18, he does it again after a hurry-up snap, which never seem to work in the NFL anymore unless you can catch them with 12 men on the field. But I think the hurried snap led to panic in Stroud, and he coughed up the ball for his second fumble of the game to blow it.

So, I don’t think this game does anything to really move the needle for these teams when it comes to getting to the Super Bowl. I think they both showed some of their usual flaws with the Bills’ defensive shortcomings and tendency to make crushing mistakes at the worst times, and Stroud can’t be trusted on a GWD situation.

The best thing it does for Buffalo winning is it makes it less likely they’ll have to go back to Houston for a rematch in January.

Cardinals at Chargers: Upset of the Week

Every season there’s usually a big upset in Week 1, and it just so happens to be Cardinals at Chargers this year. I had a bad feeling, which is why I picked the Cardinals +9.5 ATS. My thought was the Cardinals moved the ball really well last year with Jacoby Brissett, they moved it as well as anyone in the 2026 preseason under new coach Mike LaFleur, and the Chargers were replacing Jesse Minter at defensive coordinator and could struggle there.

But I trusted Jim Harbaugh and his BFF Justin Herbert to win this one at home as they have much harder games to come. Mostly, I thought Mike McDaniel would have a big impact on the offense, allowing for more explosive plays now that Herbert has more receivers beyond Ladd McConkey, the two tackles were healthy, and McDaniel’s Miami offenses usually peaked in September. It felt like a slam dunk for a 30+ point outing for Herbert against one of last year’s worst defenses.

It never materialized. The Chargers never led, the Cardinals had the two longest gains of the game, and the Chargers didn’t run the ball well, had little going for them outside of Ladd McConkey (left injured too), and Herbert took three sacks as they beat up the interior of his line instead this time.

You have to love the play late in the game where three Chargers blocked one Cardinal while two free rushers got in on Herbert for a sack.

It was one of the worst performances for the Chargers in the Harbaugh era. Maybe the Cardinals are a surprise team this year, but I have a hard time believing they’re still not headed for last place in the best division. The Chargers just seemed really out of sorts on offense, and that Minter-less defense wasn’t impressive at all. Brissett’s only sack didn’t lose any yards, and they gave up a touchdown on the opening drive to rookie back Jeremiyah Love.

Arizona somehow has two wideouts playing better than Marvin Harrison Jr. now as Kendrick Bourne caught all 8 of his targets for 75 yards, but even MHJ had a 33-yard grab, the longest play of the game.

Remember when McDaniel was supposed to unleash Herbert’s arm? We’ll have to wait to see it I guess as it was a total dud in Week 1, and that screwed up a ton of bettors, including my best parlays on Sunday.

Does Madison Beer even know about Chargers BINGO and the level of curse she’s getting involved with here? It runs deep.

Bears at Panthers: Did Ben Johnson Know What He Had?

Ben Johnson might be a mad genius after all. Proclaiming this summer that he wants to break the 2013 Broncos’ single-season scoring record, his team went out and dropped 59 points in Carolina in Week 1. Not bad for someone coaching a team that many soured on and expected to be a prime regression candidate in 2026.

For the record, I picked the Bears to win 10 games and get a wild card berth in my predictions. But I’ll entertain the scoring record if they can drop a healthy number on Brian Flores’ Vikings in Week 2 as the Panthers just lack the key pieces for an adequate defense this year.

Still, 59 points on the road is a crazy number to start the season. In fact, the 96 combined points are the most in a season opener in NFL history. That’s also why I wish Johnson would realize his goal is not a good one as high-scoring juggernauts just don’t win Super Bowls. You need balance, and giving up 37 points to the Panthers is not a good sign for their defense.

Granted, putting pressure on the Panthers to keep scoring, the Bears were able to make the fourth quarter pretty much irrelevant, which was always going to be key this year after the way they won so late in games in 2025. That’s one way to avoid that. They also still forced three turnovers after leading the league in turnover differential, so that’s a good start on that front too.

They also did this with Colston Loveland not catching a pass, Rome Odunze catching two passes, and 32-year-old receiver Kalif Raymond led the way with 84 yards on 8-of-9 targets caught. Go figure, Johnson imports a Detroit receiver and he immediately leads the team in Week 1 after he’d be maybe fifth on your depth chart in terms of your best receiving option.

Throw in an elite running game that piled up 291 yards with Caleb Williams running for 65 yards and two touchdowns to complement two 100-yard rushers, and you have some real potential to light up the scoreboard all year. I don’t know about the scoring record, but they definitely can outdo what they did last year.

Either way, the Bears are going to be a lot of fun this year, and that’s one of the best things about Johnson hooking up with Caleb in Chicago. Making the Bears must-see TV for their offense for the first time ever basically.

Packers at Vikings: The Body Weight Rule Strikes Again in This Rivalry

Why does the body weight rule always seem to pop up in Packers vs. Vikings game the last decade?

It’s still hard to believe the Packers turned a 22-10 lead with 20 minutes left into a 39-22 loss. They knocked out Kyler Murray, who saw his first game with Minnesota end on an interception on his first throw, then a nasty hit to the head for a concussion. Enter Carson Wentz, who took three sacks against a defense still missing Micah Parsons (ACL), and some would say a few more should have counted.

It ended up being a controversial day for officiating in this one. I thought Jordan Love was having one of his best games ever until he wasn’t in the fourth quarter. Everything turned for the Packers after they declined the points on a 40-yard field goal that would have put them up 25-17 with 13:17 to play because the Vikings were offsides.

It’s a defendable call. You try for the 4th-and-1 at the Minnesota 17, you burn more clock if you convert it, then you have chance to make it a two-score game or at least get the shorter field goal eventually. Except Love did the sneak, and the virtual measurement said he didn’t get it, so the Vikings got the ball back down 22-17. I can’t really fault Matt LaFleur for that one.

Then on a weekend with some shaky game-winning drives (Bills), the Vikings really took the cake here. Typical I guess when Carson Wentz is the one coming off the bench to lead it, but Green Bay thought it stopped him on a 3rd-and-11 only to get caught for an illegal contact to extend the drive. Then they got another 3rd-and-3 stop on an incomplete pass only to get hit with a ridiculous roughing the passer penalty. Then a Wentz interception on third down in the end zone was negated by defensive holding.

Did Tom Brady host a LOAT seminar this summer that only Wentz, Burrow, and Allen had the details for? How to will the defense to commit multiple penalties on the same GWD? How to get the opponent to drop your picks and how to will your defense to recover fumbles?

Eventually, Aaron Jones scattered into the end zone for the go-ahead touchdown combined with the 2-point conversion pass to Justin Jefferson, who looks elite with any quarterback besides J.J. McCarthy (and I guess Max Brosmer).

Down 25-22, the Packers lost yards on three straight plays as Brian Flores kept blitzing Love, and he was sacked on back-to-back plays, including a fumble that set up the Vikings for a 1-yard touchdown drive to make it 32-22 with 4:48 left. Love was picked off on a deflection two plays later and the rout was on.

The Packers lost their sixth-straight game for the first time since the year before Brett Favre wound up in Green Bay. They’ve also blown their third multi-score lead in that time.

It’s a brutal way to lose a game you felt like you had control of for most of the day. But anymore, the Packers have shown they can blow just about any game. Makes you realize why teams usually just fire the coach who loses his last five games in a season…

Buccaneers at Bengals: Fumble Luck Sliders Maxed Out Already?

The 33-27 final score suggests a shootout, except in true Cincinnati fashion in the Joe Burrow era, it really wasn’t one. Both defenses scored a touchdown, but the Bengals’ new defense stole the show by forcing the Buccaneers into four lost fumbles (three by Baker on wild scrambles or strip-sacks). That means 50% of Tampa Bay’s eight drives ended with a lost fumble.

That’s impressive stripping, but it’s obviously not sustainable to force and recover that many fumbles, and Mayfield was still 23-of-28 passing for 216 yards in the game. The Bengals will have to get better there but at least they got the turnovers and also sacked Mayfield four times as his first game after the $55M AAV extension was a disaster.

Cincinnati’s offense moved the ball decently, doing its best on third downs (8-of-14). But it wasn’t a clean game for Joe Burrow as he threw another pick-six, something that plagued him in 2025 when he came back. That always seems to throw him off, being the perfectionist, the rest of the game too, but Evan McPherson was able to make a 58-yard field goal to save one drive for more points. Ja’Marr Chase was unusually quiet with 12 yards on the day.

But after a Mayfield scramble for a touchdown made it 33-27 with 3:19 left, the Bengals were aggressive in the four-minute offense and Burrow was able to put the game away with his receivers, converting three passes for first downs, then a 3rd-and-1 keeper to ice the clock for good.

The Bengals should feel encouraged about winning a game where Chase did little and the defense had all those turnovers. But Burrow can’t be happy about another pick-six, and he knows those turnovers aren’t always going to be for him on the other side every week.

As for the Bucs, the good news is they play in the NFC South where every team is 0-1, which is right on brand. I’d expect Baker to bounce back with a huge game against the Browns next week.

Cowboys at Giants: Is New York Ready for This? Dallas Was Not

I give the NFC East a hard time because I feel they’re usually pushed on us in national games because of the size of their media markets instead of the value of their product. Cowboys vs. Giants has been an especially egregious rivalry to feature in the last decade as Dak Prescott has dominated New York. After getting swept by the G-Men in his 2016 rookie season, Prescott won 14 straight starts in 2017-25 before leaving Week 18’s irrelevant game early, and the Giants went on to win that one.

That means for the first time since his rookie year, Dak just lost a game he finished against the Giants. It only involved the only game since 1991 (if not all of NFL history) where both teams converted over 72% of the time on third down, hence seven possessions for each team.

Sure, there was a time in the previous decade (2006-15) when this was good when it was Eli Manning vs. Tony Romo in entertaining games. But watching the Giants try to outscore Dak with Daniel Jones and Saquon Barkley just wasn’t that fun.

However, he may have new competition to deal with as Jaxson Dart opened his second season with one of his best games, leading the Giants to four touchdowns on six drives before running out the final 5:21 on the clock in a 28-20 game on his seventh possession. Keep in mind one of the only two stops the Cowboys had involved a Cam Skattebo fumble, so Dart was very protective of the ball and extremely efficient.

Dart showed patches of elite drive efficiency as a rookie, and that was impressive given he almost never had his best wideout (Malik Nabers) and best running back (Skattebo) together because of injuries. In his first full game with them, he did this as the revamped Dallas defense actually took some steps backwards with poor communication on the field. I also think adding Isaiah Likely at tight end is a big move as he can finally unleash himself from playing behind Mark Andrews in Baltimore. Matt Nagy gets a lot of grief, and I never bought for a second the Kansas City decline in 2023-25 was his fault, but he delivered in Game 1 as OC of the Giants.

John Harbuagh also found a lead he couldn’t blow, though both teams had some stupid penalties on the night. Dallas just had the last few critical ones like when Javonte Williams was penalized for taunting for celebrating a touchdown too early by pointing. That cost his team, which was down 14 points before his score, a chance to go for two early, then the Cowboys missed the 15-yards deeper extra point, keeping it a 28-20 game.

Then with the Cowboys down to two clock stoppages with 2:10 left, they pulled Dart down by the facemask at midfield, drawing another 15-yard flag and automatic first down.

After watching the other teams with second-year quarterbacks fail to impress on Sunday, maybe the Giants with Harbaugh and Dart are the one to watch for a breakout season in 2026. Guess we’ll find out next week when they play the 0-1 Rams how much of this is new leadership and better health vs. how much is playing a dumb team like Dallas.

Commanders at Eagles: Ho-Hum, the Eagles Won, and Stefon Diggs Is Still Dumb

It pains me to say this, but Jayden Daniels is getting close to unwatchable territory. The Eagles have a good defense, but he’s solved them before as a rookie (2024) when they were Super Bowl-worthy. But on Sunday, even with healthier weapons than he had last year, he really struggled to get the ball downfield, and that’s why it was 17-9 going into the fourth.

Fortunately, Daniels made some nice scrambles and smart throws to lead two late touchdown drives to keep this one competitive. Unfortunately, Stefon Diggs went full diva with a penalized celebration for humping the goal post after his first touchdown with the team. That cost the Commanders a shot at the game-tying two-point conversion with 9:59 left.

The Eagles answered with a touchdown to Dallas Goedert, his second of the day, as they found ways to score in both halves this time after they started to scare you with 2025 déjà vu after starting the second half with three straight three-and-out drives. But Jalen Hurts played one of his best games of the last two years, and Dontayvion Wicks stepped up with 73 yards and a touchdown. Like I said before the season, I actually think Hurts will be better without A.J. Brown this year.

Still, it wouldn’t be an Eagles game without a close finish, and after Daniels threw a touchdown to make it 24-22, the Eagles weren’t fooled at all by the little shovel pass attempt to tie it, so they stuffed that.

The Eagles recovered the onside kick and that was it. I get that the Eagles have a nice pass rush and secondary, so that’s how you end up with Terry McLaurin catching two passes for 14 yards. But rookie Antonio Williams was productive (4-64-1), and Diggs did well (4-55-1) penalty withstanding. They have a good mixture of weapons around Daniels this year, so we need to see better results as it’s hard to believe this guy was the uber-efficient and consistent rookie we saw in 2024.

Saints at Lions: Too Close for Comfort in Detroit

Not sure any win feels more like a loss in Week 1 than Detroit over the Saints. Like the Bengals, the Lions were a team hoping for an easier schedule and better health to key players will lead them back in the playoffs this year. It should have been a layup to get the Saints at home in Week 1 as a 6.5-point favorite, and despite some boring early action – save for a ridiculous call of an incomplete pass when it looked like Jared Goff fumbled the ball backwards – the Lions led 21-0 more than halfway through the third quarter.

Tyler Shough had some good moments last year as a rookie but they all came against losing teams. He was losing his shit for much of this game with numerous sacks and turnovers, but he shook it off and ended up throwing 56 passes for 410 yards and 3 touchdowns. Four straight scoring drives ended up tying the game at 24, and I agree with the decision to tie it on an extra point with 1:07 left (too much time).

In fact, the Saints got the ball back with 0:27 after forcing a three-and-out (not Jared Goff’s best day), and Shough almost worked the ball into game-winning field goal range. A 62-yard field goal is feasible these days, but Daniel Carlson was way off on his attempt, so we went to overtime.

I think the Saints were right to go on defense first as you want the ball last with four-down football and knowing exactly what you need. The Lions drove 70 yards for a touchdown, making it look easy with Amon-Ra St. Brown catching his second of the day, but the game is no longer over even in the regular season.

Shough had his chance, and he led another 80-yard touchdown drive with 1:34 left. You’re not playing for a tie in Week 1, so I agree with the decision to go for two here by Kellen Moore. Shough had to hold the ball, and the defense was good enough to force Lance out of the back of the end zone as I’m not sure he was going to be able to catch it in bounds.

The Lions held on for the 31-30 win in a game that looked like it might end with under 30 combined points for a while there. We’ll see where the Saints go from here, but a bit of a red flag for the Lions in nearly giving this one away. Tough game up next with the Bills too on Thursday night to christen their new stadium in a meaningful game.

Falcons at Steelers: A Mike Tomlin Tribute

For the first time since the 2006 season, the Pittsburgh Steelers played a game without Mike Tomlin as their head coach. But he may as well have been there spiritually as this was a struggle-fest against a third-string quarterback (Cooper Rush) that was right up Tomlin’s alley.

The reunion of Mike McCarthy with Aaron Rodgers led to the quarterback throwing his most passes in the first half of a game since 2020. But there wasn’t a lot of success down the field, the running game never materialized, and while newcomer Michael Pittman Jr. looked good (caught all 3 targets for 58 yards), Rodgers still stuck to his guys from last year as DK Metcalf, Pat Freiermuth, and Roman Wilson combined for 21 targets. Eleven more went to the running backs on those little swing passes Rodgers fell in love with (out of necessity) in 2025.

I would have loved to see rookie Germie Bernard get a target but he didn’t. I would have liked to see more Pittman Jr. usage. Maybe they were saving things cause they thought they could get past an injury-riddled Atlanta team – how the fvck are you this banged up in Week 1? – and can show more against New England next week. But I was kind of disappointed in the offense scoring 13 points and needing T.J. Watt to take over with two sacks and a brilliant pick-six to provide the winning margin in the end.

With that said, like last year, Rodgers’ arm still looks strong despite his age. He also threw some great passes through defenders down the middle of the field, and his receivers (Metcalf and Wilson particularly) let him down multiple times with drops. So, his numbers could have easily been better here.

But slumming it in a 13-10 game with a badly injured team starting Cooper Rush – swinging it out to Bijan Robinson was the only play he seemed to have – and still needing a Watt pick-six and Nick Folk to blow multiple field goals is such a nice tribute to Mike Tomlin.

Ravens at Colts: Unleashing the Triplets

After the Colts marched right down the field with seven straight passes from Daniel Jones to get a Jonathan Taylor touchdown run, you thought maybe this is going to be the first half of 2025 all over again.

Then the rest of the game happened, and now I’m thinking those first 4.5 minutes may be the peak of the 2026 Colts’ season. Zay Flowers caught a 49-yard pass on the first play from scrimmage for the Declan Doyle offensive era in Baltimore, and the Ravens were soon on their way to 41 points with huge games from Lamar Jackson (324 passing yards on 25 attempts), Flowers, and Derrick Henry (144 yards, 3 touchdowns).

That’s the “Triplets” approach after the Ravens lost some depth this offseason. But it could clearly work well. Unfortunately, Flowers left after putting up 150 yards and a touchdown after a hamstring injury, and those can always linger. Hopefully he’ll be okay as it will be harder to throw efficiently without that major piece available.

But it’s a good debut for Jesse Minter as the Ravens had no issues salting the game away, taking a 38-16 lead in the fourth quarter and winning 41-23. I didn’t see much from Daniel Jones in this one, but there will be easier games for the Colts to come. Just not enough easy ones to take them as serious contenders in this AFC.

Jets at Titans: Not the Revenge Game That Robert Saleh Had in Mind

About the only way Robert Saleh and Brian Daboll’s debut with the Titans could have gone worse was if Cam Ward threw a pick-six to the Jets after they had zero picks in 17 games last year. That streak added another game, but it didn’t even matter as they won 23-10 in a stinker of a game that should really crush the hopes of Titans fans that this year would be better.

I wouldn’t even call it very efficient offense from the Jets as they were only 2-of-12 on third down. But Geno Smith strung together some drives in his return to the team, took no sacks, had no turnovers, and they kept the ball for 38:46 as the Titans could barely run any plays.

Hell, maybe they should have thrown some picks and forced some things with Ward. On multiple occasions down three scores in the final 18:00, Saleh punted like a coward, including once from the New York 43. Calvin Ridley didn’t even have a target while new rookie wideout Carnell Tate had four catches for 38 yards.

Just a miserable day for the Titans, who appear to be directionless.

Dolphins at Raiders: And the Award for Worst Wide Receiver Room Goes To…

I’m still amused that they matched up the two worst wide receiver rooms in the league for rookie coaches in Week 1. But in the end, Klint Kubiak’s scheme won out because he could still get running back Ashton Jeanty properly involved with 147 yards from scrimmage and two receiving touchdowns. With Brock Bowers out, Jeanty led the team with 45 receiving yards.

Malik Willis was basically what you’d expect on a reworked team with little around him. He led them in rushing (39 yards), scored a touchdown that way, and was completing a fair share of passes early before taking 5 sacks and ending with 13 points.

Long year for the Dolphins to come, and I’d be surprised if the Raiders had many more wins too when the schedule gets much tougher. Even in this game, Kirk Cousins threw two picks and barely averaged 5 YPA.

Browns at Jaguars: If You Haven’t Already, Get Used to This, Cleveland

The Browns are used to terrible seasons as they were 0-16 in the last decade. But they could be a special kind of awful in 2026 after going with Deshaun Watson at quarterback and trading Myles Garrett for Jared Verse while installing a new defense sure to be worse than the one Jim Schwartz coordinated.

I’ve been building up Cleveland for the No. 1 pick in the draft with a season likely to be embarrassing on both sides of the ball, and they lived down to those expectations on Sunday with a 34-10 loss in Jacksonville that wasn’t even as close as the score suggests. In fact, Watson’s 46-yard touchdown pass to rookie Denzel Boston in garbage time gave him passable stats by the naked eye, but don’t let one meaningless score massage those numbers too much.

The Browns scored 3 points on their first 8 drives with Watson, which is terrible production as he wasn’t getting anything out of their only two receivers worth a damn in the last two seasons in Jerry Jeudy (2024) and Harold Fannin Jr. (2025).

The defense was absolutely shredded by Trevor Lawrence, who was 18-of-23 for 245 yards and 4 touchdowns to four receivers with Parker Washington (5-83-1) leading the way again.

Get used to more Cleveland blowouts like this in 2026. We’ll learn exactly where Jacksonville is at in Year 2 for Liam Coen with the Broncos, Patriots, Bengals, Eagles, and Texans up next before an early bye.

Next Week:

Should be plenty of points scored in Lions-Bills on Thursday night. Early Sunday has interesting games like Bengals-Texans, Steelers-Patriots, Vikings-Bears, and we’ll see if the Packers can stop the bleeding at the Jets. Could be another stunner in Arizona if the Cardinals get to a 2-0 start by beating Seattle, which will likely be without Sam Darnold (hip). Jags-Denver might be the main attraction at 4:25. Colts at Chiefs for SNF is a display of two teams who have slumped hard since their last meeting in November. Then the Rams suddenly have their hands full against the Giants without Myles Garrett.

2025 NFL Stat Oddity: Super Bowl LX

~ Scott ~ 1 Comment

Super Bowls are won in the trenches. Defense wins championships. Schedule merchants need not apply.

The New England Patriots almost rode their Most Valuable Schedule to the promised land. But in one of the most emphatic repudiations in NFL playoff history, the Patriots were shellacked 29-13 in Super Bowl LX by the Seattle Seahawks.

It’s almost laughable that the final box score looks as close as it does. The Seahawks barely won the yardage battle (335-331), they only had two more first downs, (20-18), did worse on third downs (4-of-16 vs. 6-of-15) by 15 percentage points, and if you didn’t know any better, you’d think this was a close game until it was blown open by its only three turnovers, all from the Patriots in the final 16 minutes, including a pick-six.

But this really wasn’t close. The Seahawks kept settling for field goals while forcing the Patriots to punt eight times in a row (ignoring the kneeldown for halftime). Then the game’s first turnover happened in the final minute of the third quarter in predictable fashion (a Drake Maye strip-sack), and that led to the only offensive touchdown for the Seahawks from 37 yards out to make it 19-0 with 13:24 left.

It was only in those final 13:24 when Maye passed for 235 yards, reportedly the most in any quarter in Super Bowl history (Doug Williams had 228 in the second quarter of Washington’s 42-10 rout of the 1987 Broncos). But Maye also had 130 of those yards after his pick-six made it 29-7 with 4:27 left. Garbage time intensifies.

That means Maye had 21 net passing yards in the game’s first 46 minutes. He was the one seeing ghosts, and now Sam Darnold is a Super Bowl champion, and we have to deal with the fallout of people thinking the Seahawks are a legendary team after one of the strangest seasons in NFL history.

But I can’t say the ending wasn’t satisfying as it would have been terrible for all discourse if this New England schedule was rewarded with an MVP award for Maye and a Super Bowl ring for that organization. Not this way.

For one last time until September, let’s recap the game with brutal honesty.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Seahawks vs. Patriots: The Young Pup Bowl

Before the game even started, I had some people confused on Twitter when I said this was the lowest-stakes Super Bowl since 2000 Ravens vs. Giants. I may have even been generous there as 2000 was about Baltimore solidifying itself as an all-time great defense, a reputation it’d keep up throughout the rest of Ray Lewis’ career as a franchise led by its defense. Then you can argue 1999 had the same impact on Kurt Warner and the GSOT Rams.

But the point I was making was that Super Bowls are about building legacies. Look at the Super Bowls since and you had Warner and those Rams trying to become a dynasty in 2001, only to give birth to one for the Patriots where every subsequent appearance meant more legacy building for Brady and Belichick. Then you had moments like 2005 when Bill Cowher and Jerome Bettis really needed to finish that road trip with a ring to lock up their Canton busts while Mike Holmgren could have solidified his own if he became the first coach to win a Super Bowl for two different teams.

Year after year, more of the same like when top-tier quarterbacks had to make sure they solidified their legacy with a ring in their first Super Bowl appearance like Peyton Manning (2006), Drew Brees (2009), Aaron Rodgers (2010), and Patrick Mahomes (2019) all did.

Last year, it was all about the three-peat for the Chiefs and how legendary that would make that team while the Eagles were looking for revenge from two years earlier. Big-time stuff.

All that legacy stuff? Practically absent from this matchup with it being Year 1 for these quarterback-coach duos with these teams, and most of their star players are either too young (JSN, Milton Williams, Witherspoon, Byron Murphy, etc.) for legacy talk or it’s veterans like DeMarcus Lawrence, Cooper Kupp (too many injuries), or Stefon Diggs who really have no shot at the HOF either way.

Two quarterbacks still in their twenties who aren’t going to be rushed into the elite class with a win except for the efforts by the New England fanbase and media to do so for Maye. But boy, after the postseason Maye just had? They need to walk that the fvck back some.

So, if you thought this Super Bowl lacked some sizzle coming in, that’s the reason. Just not a lot to be gained from a legacy standpoint. As for what the outcome will do for the future, we can only speculate, and I’ll do that at the end (and more in depth later this week).

The First Half Tells

Again, I did not find this Super Bowl to be difficult to predict or size up this week. I said the quarterbacks were not going to impress (they didn’t), a non-quarterback would win MVP (he did), there’d be a return touchdown (there was), and the defense that caused more damage with splash plays would win the game (they did).

I just didn’t think Seattle would be so dominant in the splash play area, winning turnovers 3-0 and sacks 6-1. If you watched the first few drives, you could see each quarterback playing up to (or down to) expectations too. Darnold had some very risky throws that could have been picks in tight windows. Maye took a couple of early sacks as he tends to do. It was going to be about who manages to avoid the biggest mistakes.

But if you watched those early Darnold throws with the Patriots aggressively jumping routes, you would have been shocked to learn that he ended this game with no picks on 38 attempts. I sensed one coming early. NBC’s Cris Collinsworth did too based on his commentary, and I’m sure millions watching the game did as well. But it never happened.

That really ended up being the key to Seattle winning this Super Bowl. Remember, the Seahawks were minus-4 in turnover differential going into Week 18, and Darnold led all quarterbacks in giveaways. But from Week 18 against the 49ers with the No. 1 seed on the line through the three playoff games, the Seahawks were +8 with 8 takeaways, no giveaways, and that’s how they won every game.

But I think it was a good gameplan early by Mike Macdonald to blitz the corner (Witherspoon) as a new wrinkle (something Witherspoon did twice as much more in 2023-24) to throw off Maye, who looked physically fine (the shoulder) but mentally overwhelmed. I also didn’t think much of Josh McDaniels’ gameplan as he kept up to his reputation with no first-quarter touchdowns in a 10th-straight Super Bowl. But where were the screens, the trick plays, the designed QB runs? Pretty lacking all night to battle what both sides seemed to realize was a blocking mismatch.

When Will Campbell said at the draft that he’d die to protect Drake Maye, I didn’t think he meant he’d take the whole team out in a suicide bombing. But the charting numbers out there are suggesting he allowed 14 pressures himself in the Super Bowl, which sounds astronomically high and hard to believe.

But it was pretty telling early on how little respect both defenses had for the opposing quarterback with the way they were blitzing from all angles and jumping routes. Very aggressive styles that you just wouldn’t see if Patrick Mahomes or (God forbid) Josh Allen were playing in this game. The Patriots running the ball on a 3rd-and-5 early in the second quarter especially felt defeatist. Like they knew their only hope was Darnold to make some Jarrett Stidham-like mistakes and give them a short field.

However, Kenneth Walker’s runs of 30 and 29 yards on the same drive led to the second field goal and a 6-0 lead. The Seahawks running on 3rd-and-12 in the red zone also felt like an admission from Seattle that being conservative as hell was the plan tonight.

Darnold missed a couple of touchdown opportunities to JSN, who was held to 27 yards on 4-of-10 passing and also left the game temporarily for a concussion check. Christian Gonzalez and company did their job on the OPOY, though some Darnold inaccuracies helped the numbers stay down.

Still, Seattle kicked a third field goal and led 9-0 at halftime, just the fifth Super Bowl without a first-half touchdown.

The Third Quarter (Struggle Is Real)

At halftime, the Seahawks were up 183-51 in yards. Maye had just 29 yards on 15 dropbacks, so all that “it’s the weather” bullshit his fans tried selling people on his postseason was in fact bullshit. This looked an awful lot like the impotence he showed in Denver before a speck of snow hit the ground.

Yet, the game still felt close enough and Darnold was shaky enough (late on throws and just 9/22 for 88 yards) to think the Patriots could get back in this game. But I was very surprised at how bad they were in the third quarter. Maye had a 2-for-10 success rate in the quarter. His throws were largely off, and after the Seahawks started the half with another field goal drive to make it 12-0 (arguably Darnold’s best drive all night with two 16-yard passes and an 11-yard scramble), I was shocked at the next sequence from Vrabel and McDaniels.

After getting to the New England 41 after a Henderson run, the Patriots soon faced 3rd-and-1 after he was stuffed for no gain. Do you go sneak? Do you run Stevenson or Henderson again? You do something easy to move the chains, right? Instead, they looked like they wanted to set up a deep shot all along and Maye ended up throwing an incomplete pass to Pop Douglas.

Just to get some spark going for your offense in a 12-0 game, I felt like Vrabel needed to go for this. What happened to the coach who said he’d cut off his dick to win a Super Bowl? Looked like he had his balls snipped instead. The Patriots just punted it back, and they were fortunate that Milton Williams came through with their only sack of the night to instantly derail the drive for another three-and-out.

But then Maye took his fourth sack of the night, then couldn’t convert a 3rd-and-4, leading to another three-and-out. I think these three straight three-and-out drives followed by the game’s first turnover on a strip-sack are really where New England lost this game. They just couldn’t get anything going out of the locker room after a long halftime while Seattle still wasn’t doing anything special offensively, and the nerves should have been less of an issue a half into the game. But they didn’t do anything.

And sure enough, it was a strip-sack that led to Maye’s first turnover of the night, putting the Seahawks 37 yards away from the end zone, the only way they were able to get this offense a touchdown all night. That’s what Seattle has largely been doing since November. That also marks four straight playoff games where Maye took at least 5 sacks, a record.

The Fourth Quarter

Darnold made one of the best plays of the night by converting a 3rd-and-9 to Cooper Kupp, then A.J. Barner was wide open for a 16-yard touchdown. We finally got a touchdown in this game with 13:24 left. At that point, with eight punts and a fumble, you had to question if the Patriots would be the first team in Super Bowl history to get shut out.

But in under a minute, the Patriots got into the end zone with Maye finding Mack Hollins open deep for quick gains of 24 and 35 yards. Where was that all night? Another big mistake by Vrabel going for the extra point. You have to try to make it 19-8, giving yourself a chance at 8+3 instead of keeping it a 12-point game and needing two touchdowns for sure on such a tough night of scoring the ball. Again, he coached very conservatively.

After a quick punt from Seattle, there was still almost 11 minutes left in this game. Crazier things have happened. But this drive is where I felt Maye really blew it. You have time to go on a long touchdown drive, make it 19-14, then all the pressure falls back on Seattle to do something cause even a field goal would keep it a one-possession game at 22-14. But instead of doing so, Maye got into panic mode. He threw a deep ball into triple coverage from his own 17 on first down and that should have been picked but two Seahawks fought for the ball and no one got it.

Then after a 16-yard scramble on a third down, it felt like Maye was getting into a rhythm near midfield. This was far from over. Then two snaps later, he threw a horrific deep ball that was picked off and returned 35 yards to the New England 38 with 8:37 left. Forget about it. The pick was so bad even Collinsworth was left speechless.

The Seahawks played it safe and added a field goal for a 22-7 lead with 5:35 left. Again, it’s not actually over yet. That’s the real kicker too as it’s not like New England needed a superhuman effort from Maye in this game. They just needed him to do some of the things Darnold did like complete some passes in the 8-16 yard range, use your legs that are better than his, and protect the ball. But he didn’t do that.

After converting on 3rd-and-8 to little-used Hunter Henry, pressure got to Maye again and it ended up in a pick-six that was originally ruled a fumble, which would have set a record with his eighth fumble of the postseason. Instead, it goes down as his second pick in the Super Bowl, and he tied the single-season record for the playoffs with 7 fumbles and set the new record with 21 sacks (Joe Burrow had 19 in 2021).

It was 29-7 with 4:27 left, and now you can say it was over. A little touchdown drive in garbage time made it 29-13, then the Seahawks almost answered that too with a 49-yard run by Walker that was called back for holding in a game where officiating wasn’t even a topic for a change. You know it was a beatdown when people aren’t complaining about the zebras in a Super Bowl. Seattle punted and Maye padded some passing yardage to get to 295 to end the game. One of the most misleading boxscores you’ll see.

And like that, it was over. Another Super Bowl in the books where the No. 1 defense dominated an overmatched offensive line. The underdog Patriots sure didn’t play with much fire or passion or living up to the underdog role. There were a few opportunities to make this a game and they missed practically all of them. A pretty forgettable Super Bowl overall.

The truth is this is another season where the Patriots robbed us of a better Super Bowl matchup. Not nearly as bad as not seeing a rematch of Dan Marino’s Dolphins with the 1985 Bears, but I think a healthy Bo Nix and Sean Payton make a game of this in the fourth quarter, to say nothing of the Bills or Jaguars. There wasn’t a single fourth-quarter lead change in the playoff games the Patriots and Seahawks played this year. The other games had 14, a single-season record.

I said 2025 Sam Darnold was like 1991 Mark Rypien on the Redskins, right down to beating up on a schedule merchant in the Super Bowl. Turns out the little time the Seahawks spent trailing this postseason was also on par with that team.

Kenneth Walker ended up winning Super Bowl MVP, the first time a running back wins it since Terrell Davis for the 1997 Broncos. Long time ago. Not exactly a traditional MVP performance since he had 59 of those yards on two plays on one field goal drive, and he didn’t score a touchdown. But I guess it was another one of those games where so many defenders played well that they couldn’t isolate one with stats to give the MVP to, so they just picked an offensive player. Like what happened last year with the Eagles.

But make no mistakes about it. Seattle’s defense led the charge on this win two weeks after the offense picked up the slack against the Rams in the NFC Championship Game, the real Super Bowl this year.

Patriots Learned Some Hard Truths

Okay, it’s time for me to get into smarmy Bill Maher mode and get on the 2025 Patriots for this poor showing to end a weak season.

The Patriots won’t and don’t have to apologize for making the Super Bowl ahead of schedule. But it wouldn’t surprise me one bit if we never see them make it back with Maye and Vrabel. Anyone who thinks otherwise hasn’t studied NFL history as Dan Marino and Don Shula went to the Super Bowl in Year 2 (1984) together and guess what? Neither ever made it back.

Other more recent quarterbacks like Donovan McNabb, Matt Hasselbeck, Colin Kaepernick, Cam Newton, Matt Ryan, and Jared Goff all lost their first Super Bowl and have yet to make it back. Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers won their only Super Bowls in 2009-10 and never got back despite several more great seasons at a level of quarterback play that’s a tier above anything we watched in the 2025 season.

No one knows if they’ll ever be back to the Super Bowl, so you do treat every opportunity as gold.

And I didn’t get a good sense from the Patriots that they took this opportunity seriously enough. More of a “glad to be here” vibe with this team, and maybe that makes sense when you look at the half-assed effort they had on offense in the postseason once they started to play good defenses. Teams like the Jets and Dolphins don’t make the playoffs, you know.

Rarely will you see so many arguments validated by one postseason, but the knock on the 2025 Patriots for being a schedule merchant couldn’t have been more right on. They even kept getting breaks in the playoffs every week with major injuries to their opposing offenses, which is why the defense looked so dominant after rarely displaying such skill in the regular season.

Yes, they tackled well and limited explosive plays, but their schedule was also pure ass. Seattle was finally a healthy offense, and while they didn’t do a ton in this game, they didn’t have to. Sound familiar?

We also can see the weather excuse for New England was bullshit. Unless climate change has produced invisible snow and wind in the state of California, that game was played in near-70-degree weather and clear skies. No issues with a slippery surface or bad turf.

Just bad offense from the Patriots not unlike what we saw all postseason.

As it turns out, who you play is very important in the NFL. Probably the most important thing as matchups dictate outcomes in this league. Yet, I can think of at least 23 MVP voters who seemed to forget that this year when they still let Maye get this close to that award after the season he had against the schedule he faced.

He was 1-2 against winning teams in the regular season, and the Steelers and Bills didn’t necessarily have elite defenses this year either. Once he started playing winning teams backed up by good defenses like the Chargers, Texans, Broncos, and Seahawks in the playoffs, you saw the dramatic drop-off in his stats across the board.

Then one of the common arguments used for his MVP case, used as recently as the other day on TV, was common opponents. I’m supposed to believe that because Stafford had a few more picks on the road against the Falcons and Panthers in high-scoring losses that that makes Maye’s season superior based on a six-game sample.

Okay, you want to see Patriots fans abandon that argument quick? Run the full numbers now that they’ve both played Seattle and Houston too:

  • Matthew Stafford (11 games): 64% completions, 277.7 passing yards per game, 26 TD, 7 INT, 8.15 YPA, 16 sacks, 6 fumbles, 2 lost, 8.03 ANY/A
  • Drake Maye (8 games): 67.5% completions, 258.6 passing yards per game, 18 TD, 6 INT, 8.62 YPA, 27 sacks, 10 fumbles, 5 lost, 7.54 ANY/A

Way more sacks and fumbles for Maye, who drops almost half a full yard in ANY/A from Stafford in these games against the same opponents. Stafford played great in his last two games at Seattle despite the losses being on the defense and special teams. Meanwhile, his third-worst game against Seattle was still better than Maye’s Super Bowl was.

Maye just does not step up against better competition. He’s now 0-5 in the NFL when he throws more than 30 passes against a winning team. He’s 1-8 when he throws more than 35 passes against anyone in the NFL. He has a long way to go to prove he’s an elite quarterback capable of hanging with the best, putting the team on his back, winning shootouts, leading comebacks that aren’t just freebies against Baltimore, and so much more.

Everything was rushed on this kid, and he clearly isn’t at that level yet. Maybe he gets there, and maybe this is as good as it gets in the Maye era. A bad Super Bowl loss. Only time will tell, but I’m not ready to pencil in the Patriots to win the 2026 AFC East.

Another One Bites the Dust

That will wrap up the 2025 NFL season, my 15th season of full-time coverage. Don’t really have more than a pot to piss in for a retirement plan, but maybe this offseason will be beneficial to me in many ways as I hope to get some new databases and metrics created to better help my in-season content.

Also plan to get my health back on an improving track after slacking off these last few months. The end of the season is a stress reliever, and it’s even greater when the Super Bowl ends in a satisfying way as this one did.

I’ll be writing Monday night (for Tuesday) about lessons learned from the 2025 NFL season, but if you want a quick teaser on that, I’m asking the question straight up: How many of these “new contenders” in 2025 will have already peaked this season?

  • Seahawks (good chance this is the peak of the mountain)
  • Patriots
  • Bears
  • Jaguars
  • Broncos
  • Texans
  • Panthers (technically won the division)

I think it’s possible a lot of them never match or improve on their success this year, but we’ll just have to wait and see. It’s going to be an interesting offseason to ask a lot of questions about the 10 new head coaches, and if the number I read is correct, 21 new offensive coordinators around the NFL. Lots of chances for quick turnarounds in 2026 and questioning if the teams who dominated turnovers (Bears) or close games (Bears again, Broncos), or if the schedule merchants (Patriots, Broncos again) can get it done again.

I plan on watching more movies and TV shows, maybe subscribing to the Criterion Channel to tackle the top 5,000 films list on TSPDT better, and working on more NFL stats and hopefully reading less Twitter. But we’ll see as I may want to dabble in video content if it proves to be rewarding/worth the time.

But I need to tackle my offseason approach differently this year as I just can’t keep wasting time arguing on Twitter with bots/scumbags/dumb people. Time is too precious, and we’re running out of it daily.

So, I want a different kind of offseason because I can’t just stomach daily doses of hearing how some overrated schedule merchant lucked his way to a Super Bowl he shit the bed in, and how Mahomes is “washed” and “never going to be good again”. Screw those people. I put in the work and am confident in my predictions. You can’t change their minds.

I just have to keep putting out good content, backed by facts, and let that speak for itself. And Seattle fans, you’re welcome for that reverse jinx. Still feel like you might owe me for Super Bowls 47-48, but given what happened in XL, I guess we can call it even enough.

Until our rooting interests converge again…

2025 NFL Stat Oddity: Conference Championship

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

Championship Sunday came and went with two close games, not a single fourth-quarter point scored, and that just might be the only formula for how you get a Super Bowl between Sam Darnold and a young Drake Maye doing his best Trent Dilfer impersonation.

I told you this was not my AFC, and one terribly quarterbacked game that was sunk to even lower depths by a huge snowstorm gave way to one of the best quarterbacked championship games you’ll ever see in the NFC. What happened to the AFC having the best quarterbacks?

But my prediction of a 3-point New England win (Broncos covered) and a 27-24 win for the Seahawks were pretty spot on as the favorites advance to Super Bowl 60 where the Seahawks might be a 4.5-point favorite.

It’s not like last year’s story with the three-peat vs. Philly’s revenge. But maybe it will provide a better game, though I’m not sure how the Patriots will actually respond to a good team that isn’t terribly injured. But we have two weeks to talk about that.  

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Patriots at Broncos: Proof That “Take the Points” Is Sometimes the Right Move

I certainly don’t envy the task Sean Payton had on Sunday.

Trying to beat the NFL franchise with the most devil luck on a day where you didn’t have Bo Nix, you had to start a quarterback who hadn’t thrown a meaningful pass in two years (or ever, in some context), you didn’t have your best back (J.K. Dobbins), and you lost Pat Bryant early on top of Troy Franklin being out at wide receiver. Only your #2 and #3 wideouts in receiving yards this season.

I don’t envy him at all, but I think for the first time ever, I’m going to say a Sean Payton defense was 100% let down by a Sean Payton offense in a playoff loss. In a very winnable game against the Patriots, Payton made some tactical errors that he’ll have to stew over all offseason and maybe longer as this 2025 season may have been the best shot he had at a Super Bowl the rest of his career.

You could tell early on this wasn’t going to be a Josh Allen vs. Patrick Mahomes type of AFC Championship Game. Not with Jarrett Stidham and Drake “The Schedule” Maye.  Both coaches came out running the ball, waiting for the quarterback to make a throw on third down that was nearly a turnover for both.

After Stidham badly missed a screen pass on his second drive, you thought the worst was yet to come. But then he surprised everyone with a perfect deep ball, a 52-yard gain to Marvin Mims, who beat Christian Gonzalez in coverage. Two plays later, it was a touchdown pass to Courtland Sutton, and suddenly Denver was up 7-0.

But it never got better from there. With the Patriots struggling to get any offense going, the Broncos faced a 4th-and-1 at the New England 14 early in the second quarter after a Stidham scramble. I get the argument for being aggressive and going for it, but as I said in the moment, I supported the field goal there.

I think Payton lost the game here.

First, you have to understand this is a game where points will be at a premium with your backup and all the other injuries on offense. The Patriots are playing a lot of sound defense and there was clear pass pressure on Stidham, who didn’t do the best job of handling it with his inexperience. He could stand to learn to throw the ball away better.

Second, if you’re going for it and you’re not going ballsy to throw to the end zone for a touchdown, then you gotta go quarterback sneak (Payton had Russell Wilson dominating these after he was horrible at them in Seattle) to be safe and get it. At best, you’re probably getting a yard or two, so it’s still going to be a first down at the 13 or 12. Can you really say for sure you’re getting a touchdown there? You might be kicking a field goal four snaps later anyway, so that’s another reason I don’t like going for it at the 14.

Third, if the CBS broadcast team knew in the pregame that snow was very possible in this game and the conditions would get worse, then Payton and the Broncos had to know that too. That’s just another reason to take the 3 points now, go up 10-0, and put pressure on a quarterback in his first road playoff start who has been playing like shit.

But the Broncos went for it, Stidham tried to throw a long-developing pass play to the back, and he was nearly picked off. Turnover on downs. That was the turning point, and even though the Patriots punted on the ensuing drive, the Broncos never got the ball past the New England 28 the rest of the game.

New England’s offense was still unable to get going. Maye’s success rate was 1-for-9 to start this game, and not even a 3rd-and-13 conversion to Mack Hollins could get a scoring drive going. They needed a takeaway, which Stidham provided in the worst way on the ensuring drive. Instead of throwing the ball away or taking the sack since it was third down, he tried to get rid of the ball and was charged with a fumble after some ref discussion. He’s lucky they blew the whistle and it wasn’t a fumble-six.

I’m not sure it was a true backwards pass either, but since what Stidham did on the play was so bad and stupid, he deserved to get hit with a turnover. The Patriots got to start with the ball 12 yards away from the end zone, and two plays later, my prediction of a Maye rushing touchdown came true to get the Patriots on the board.

It’s those two killer plays that ruined the game for Denver. The 4th down decision and the fumble. Both teams missed a long field goal to end the first half, but the weather was about to get much worse in the second half.

New England could have started the second half with a three-and-out, but Rhamondre Stevenson was able to catch them off guard with a 3-yard run on 3rd-and-3. That led to a marathon drive where Maye had a key 28-yard scramble on 3rd-and-9 that’s probably the main reason his QBR for this game ended up being a 62.6.

The 9:31 drive ended in a field goal, but that’s a 10-7 lead and it was the last score of the day. It was around this time when the snow started coming down, and that made it very hard on both teams to get any offense going. The Patriots got their long drive in just in time before the snow.

However, no one knew that’d be the last scoring drive in the game, and it almost wasn’t a scoring drive at all. The Patriots used the Tush Push on 4th-and-1 at the Denver 8, and despite beefing up with two defenders in the backfield, they really didn’t get any push on Maye. He’s fortunate that spotting the ball is an unscientific joke in the NFL, because this probably should have been a turnover on downs.

After their field goal drive, the Patriots tried to use the better field direction (snow not in their face) for a 31-yard gain on a flea-flicker pass, but even with the better field, they still missed a 46-yard field goal badly. The Patriots had just two completions that gained more than 9 yards in the game.

In the fourth quarter, Denver had the better field direction for offense. But the offensive line was not able to control the ground game, so it was on Stidham to try to beat this defense in the snow. He just couldn’t do it on this day.

The final turning point was a bad New England punt that put the Broncos at the New England 33 with 6:55 left. What offense in a 3-point deficit wouldn’t kill to start that close? But the weather was a factor again, and the Broncos did not capitalize with great calls. Harvey lost 3 yards on a first-down run, then he didn’t get anything on a catch, then Stidham scrambled for 8 yards to set up 4th-and-5.

Not to trigger Atlanta fans over Super Bowl 51, but this drive’s failure reminded me a little of how the Falcons had a 1st-and-10 at the New England 22 after the great Julio Jones catch. Literally take three knees and make a field goal and you probably win that game. Instead, they lost yards and had to punt in a 28-20 game before the Patriots tied.

At least the Broncos didn’t punt here, but only gaining 5 yards on 3 plays in that golden opportunity for field position was a huge, missed opportunity. I also question if they should have just gone for it here as getting a touchdown was probably their best shot of winning the game. You don’t really care if you get stopped since you don’t expect the Patriots to get any offense going in the wind.

I guess they had to give the field goal a try, but Wil Lutz was blocked from 45 yards out with 4:42 left. Given the magnitude of the game and the moment, I think I could make the argument that’s in the top 5 for the biggest failed field goal in NFL history.

The first one is obviously Scott Norwood’s 47-yard miss for Buffalo with Super Bowl 25 on the line against the Giants. The only do-or-die field goal miss in Super Bowl history. But we also know the only other short do-or-die field goal miss in a championship game was Billy Cundiff (Ravens) from 32 yards out in the 2011 AFC Championship Game at New England.

Then I might rank Gary Anderson’s first miss of the 1998 season at No. 3 as it cost his Vikings a 10-point lead late in the NFC Championship Game that should have been enough to beat Atlanta. We were robbed of an all-time great Super Bowl between the Vikings and Broncos because of that one.

For fourth place, you can take your pick of failures in the divisional round:

  • 2000 Titans vs. Ravens: Al Del Greco’s 37-yard FG is blocked and returned for a touchdown in a 10-10 tie with just over 12:00 left (Ravens won 24-10 after getting a pick-six too).
  • 2005 Colts vs. Steelers: “He missed it” as Mike Vanderjagt shanked a 46-yard field goal to deny an all-time great game of overtime.
  • 1995 Chiefs vs. Colts: Lin Elliott missed a 42-yard field goal to force overtime as the No. 1 seed Chiefs fell. He missed from 39 yards in the same quarter.
  • 2006 Chargers vs. Patriots: Nate Kaeding missed a 54-yard field goal that would have forced overtime back when overtime was true sudden death.

At worst you have to put this one in the top 10 since it was a championship game.

The Broncos got the ball back with 3:05 left and 68 yards away from the end zone. But much like in Stidham’s only other game-winning drive attempt in the NFL (2022 overtime vs. 49ers), he threw an interception rather quickly. Just a poor read/throw, and Gonzalez has his playoff highlight now.

The Patriots just needed one first down to ice it, and Maye put that away with his legs on a broken play. He ended up rushing for 65 yards while only netting 65 passing yards on 26 pass plays. He joins Blake Bortles (vs. 2017 Bills) as the only quarterbacks to throw for fewer than 100 yards (min. 20 attempts) and win a playoff game without scoring 14 points.

There are many “records” of futility associated with the Patriots’ Super Bowl run here, and I have two weeks to get into them all, so it’s not like I have to do it right now. But I think scoring the fewest points (54) by any conference champion since the 1979 Rams (49) is a good place to start.

Becoming the third team in NFL history (regular season or postseason) to win three straight games in a single season after allowing at least 5 sacks in each game is another crazy one. Only the 1986 Patriots and 2004 Bears did that, and they weren’t doing it in playoff games. Maye’s 15 sacks are already the second most in a single postseason (Joe Burrow took 19 in four games in 2021).

The Dilfer/2001 Brady comparisons are spot on for Maye. I’d say he has to play better against Seattle to win one more time, but are we sure about that right now? This team is on such a lucky run that they don’t even have to play a single top 10 offense in yards or points per drive despite playing four playoff games.

The Patriots have allowed 19 net points in three playoff games, and they get Darnold next. Defenses that go on runs like this in the playoffs usually do quite well in the Super Bowl, but I’m not sure there’s anything sustainable you can take away from this New England run.

Rams at Seahawks: The Ring That Got Away

If special teams didn’t exist, the 2025 Rams could have been a special team.

In the end, I was right that the Rams were not a good pick to win the Super Bowl this year despite spending several weeks as the odds-on favorite. But their blown leads, including that 16-point lead in Seattle in Week 16, showed a team that lacked attention to detail and closing games out in a championship fashion.

In some ways, Sunday night was their worst performance of the season. It’s the only game this year where the Rams didn’t find a way to get at least a fourth-quarter tie and they trailed by 11 multiple times.

Their pass defense was shredded by Sam Darnold (346/3/0) and JSN (10/153/1). Then there were the third-down woes I kept warning about, and didn’t expect the Seattle offense to go 7/12. But the Rams were just 1/8 on third down, and that was enough stops to keep them behind the eight ball all night in a 31-27 loss.

But the real turning point ended up being arguably the biggest weakness this team had all year: Special teams.

  • They gave up two blocked field goals in the fourth quarter against the Eagles to blow that game they led by 19 points and should have won.
  • They missed a go-ahead extra point in the San Francisco loss.
  • They gave up a punt return touchdown in Week 16 in Seattle to get that comeback going for the No. 1 seed, and they missed a go-ahead field goal in that game too.

The Rams fired their ST coordinator during the season but to no avail. It cost them again on Sunday. Xavier Smith muffed a punt in the second quarter but got it back. In the third quarter, with the Rams trailing 17-13 and about to get the ball back, he made one of the worst plays ever, falling down while the punt was coming and losing that one for the game’s only turnover.

Just a horrible play that the Seahawks immediately used to score a 17-yard touchdown and go up 11 points, making the Rams chase the rest of the night.

That’s not to say the Rams had a perfect game otherwise, but that was definitely the turning point. There was another before the second quarter ended when the Rams got the ball back with a 13-10 lead and 1:33 with two timeouts. A good drive there and you’re going into halftime up 16-10 or 20-10. Instead, the Rams had a quick three-and-out with two incompletions, and the Seahawks got the ball back with 54 seconds left. They were able to drive 74 yards for a touchdown in 30 seconds. Rams trailed 17-13 at halftime. Inexcusable.

Otherwise, there weren’t that many mistakes from the Rams on the road. After the botched punt return and 24-13 deficit, Stafford did a great job with some quick strikes to get a touchdown on the board and make it a game again. But I thought McVay nearly gave it away with a bad run call on a 2nd-and-15, then it looked like the Rams had to punt until a stupid taunting penalty on Riq Woolen wiped out a 4th-and-12 situation.

Keep in mind that’s after Woolen dropped a pick. Then he immediately gave up a 34-yard touchdown to Puka Nacua, so that was an unbelievable 3-moment sequence of shame for Woolen, and it made the game 31-27 with just over 17 minutes left.

But like the first game, there were no more points added. I do see the criticism and application of why McVay wouldn’t go for two there to try to make it 31-28. That way, if you’re down late in a 3-point game, you can settle for the game-tying field goal. But down 31-27, they ended up turning it over on downs on a spot you’d rather be kicking a field goal. So, that did kind of come back to haunt them. If they didn’t get the 2PC, then it’d still be 31-26 and the situation would be the same, needing a touchdown. So, I do think McVay goofed there a bit.

After the Rams finally got a stop thanks to a big sack, Stafford had his shot at what needed to be a third-straight game-winning drive on the road this postseason. He had a pretty great game, but the Rams turning in a marathon drive where they had to overcome a 4th-and-1 with a Stafford scramble after a terrible Colby Parkinson drop ended up really hurting the Rams in the end.

Their drive consumed almost half the quarter and ended in no points. On 4th-and-4 from the Seattle 6, Stafford tried forcing a pass to a backup tight end and it just wasn’t there. According to McVay and Stafford, the Seahawks were fortunate to “blow” a coverage and double team running back Kyren Williams, who apparently was supposed to be the target for a go-ahead touchdown. He was doubled, so Stafford had to panic and go elsewhere for a big incompletion with 4:54 left.

Could they have kicked the field goal there and made it a 1-point game? Yeah, I think there’s an argument there. But when you’re in a 31-27 game and the quarterbacks were playing at a high level with both over 340 yards, 3 touchdowns, and no picks, I think you have to put the ball in the hands of your MVP in that spot and trust your best unit. It just didn’t work out.

Then the Seahawks did a really great job in the four-minute offense, an area of the game where I always criticize McVay for his shortcomings. The Seahawks stayed smart and aggressive, mixing in several second-down pass attempts. They ended up getting four first downs to help run out all but 25 seconds of the clock and the Rams’ three timeouts.

The “controversial” play was a 3rd-and-7 to Cooper Kupp, who also scored a touchdown against his former team. He was ruled to get just enough for the 7-yard gain with 3:11 left, or the Seahawks would have had an interesting decision. First, I think it was a catch and down by contact all the way. But are we sure Kupp got to the 35 and the first down? Should McVay have challenged that one to burn a timeout instead of just using a timeout? I think there’ s an argument to challenge the spot here.

Alas, it ended up counting as a first down, then JSN had a big 14-yard catch for another first down, then a defensive holding penalty really put the Rams in a bind. By the time Stafford got the ball back, only 25 seconds remained and he had to go 93 yards. He got 44 to Puka, but he was unable to get out of bounds (close) on the last catch to at least set up a Hail Mary finish from the Seattle 49.

The Seahawks hung on, and Stafford becomes the first quarterback ever to throw for 350 yards, 3 touchdowns, and no turnovers in a playoff loss. It’s hard to play better than he did in the two games at Seattle, the No. 1 scoring defense, and he still took the loss in both games.

That tells me maybe he will win that MVP, because it’d be yet another year where the MVP didn’t win the Super Bowl. Only Patrick Mahomes (2022 Chiefs) has done that in the 21st century as teams built this way to win with the passing game are a dying breed, and it’s just hard to pull that off in the playoffs when you need competent plays from your special teams and defense.

The Rams didn’t get enough of those this year, and that’s why they were on the road here, and that likely made a difference as I can’t see Darnold playing this comfortably on the road even if the SoFi crowd is a little soft. They weren’t soft enough for him not to throw four picks in the first meeting, but that’s an afterthought now.

Darnold is in the Super Bowl, he’s the favorite, he’s got a good defense that has shown some major cracks against the Rams, but it’s just one game against the Patriots to win it all now.

What do you think is going to happen in two weeks? It feels inevitable, doesn’t it? The ghosts of failures past coming home to roost. Cinderella turning into a pumpkin at midnight. Mike Macdonald losing another defensive gem after losing a 17-10 game at home in the 2023 AFC Championship Game with Baltimore against the Chiefs.

Can he overcome his quarterback’s nerves? Can someone hire Klint Kubiak to be their head coach after this showing? Guess we’ll find out all of these things in the next two weeks. I’d say I can’t wait, but I got a Tubi watchlist and ~10 inches of snow that’s going to take a week or longer to melt that also have my attention.

The Mark Rypien vs. Trent Dilfer Super Bowl can wait a little.

Next week: Certainly not watching the Pro Bowl. I’ll have Super Bowl-related articles for the next two weeks, including a topic I had in mind since September that relates Sam Darnold, MetLife Stadium, and the Patriots together in a satirical but still factual way.