Category: NFL Stat Oddity

NFL Stat Oddity: Super Bowl LVIII

~ Scott ~ 1 Comment

Super Bowl LVIII was in fact a race to 24 points, but I’m not sure anyone imagined we would be 3 seconds away from double overtime, making this the longest Super Bowl ever played by game time (74:57).

But the Kansas City Chiefs are all about making history. It has been that way since Patrick Mahomes took over as the full-time starter in 2018, and it is only fitting that this team is now officially an NFL dynasty with 3 Super Bowl wins in the last 5 seasons. The longest drought in NFL history without a repeat champion is over at 18 seasons (2005-22).

The Chiefs have done it a little differently each time, though the ending that links all three has been Mahomes rallying the team back from a 10-point deficit in the Super Bowl and being named MVP. He joins Bart Starr (1966-67) and Terry Bradshaw (1978-79) as the only players to win Super Bowl MVP in back-to-back years.

But 2023 was just a season-long epic performance from Steve Spagnuolo’s defense, fairly reliable special teams, and Mahomes’ receivers did not screw up the games in the postseason like they did in the regular season. Ending things with a touchdown pass to Mecole Hardman, one of those scrutinized targets, was just the cherry on top to another year where the Chiefs beat the odds to finish with a championship.

This was a wild Super Bowl. If you ask me:

  • First 42 minutes – a bottom 5 Super Bowl all time with a bunch of fumbles (indoors to boot) and drive-killing plays
  • Last 33 minutes – a top 5 Super Bowl all time with 7 straight scoring drives to end it (minus a kneeldown)

I’d like to try to get into bed by 8 AM, so let’s jump into the recap and put this season to rest after another historic Super Bowl.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

The First Quarter: Scoreless

The 49ers came out strong doing exactly the things I thought they needed to do to win this game. That meant quality runs by Christian McCaffrey and easy completions to help Brock Purdy’s nerves. They chewed up 46 yards in 4 snaps before an unexpected blunder when the Chiefs forced CMC to fumble at the Kansas City 27, and they were able to jump on top of it for a shocking turnover.

The Chiefs had that incredible streak going of 8 straight playoff games with an opening-drive score (6 TD, 2 FG), but that came to a screeching halt with a 3-and-out. It was almost doomed from the first snap when Isiah Pacheco was stuffed for a 3-yard loss. Little did we know the 1-yard screen to Travis Kelce would be his only catch of the first half.

While Kelce sorted himself out later, George Kittle never got going in a hugely disappointing game for the other star tight end in this matchup. Kittle had an 18-yard catch wiped out by a holding penalty on Trent Williams, who was also called for a false start before the play. When that sets up 2nd-and-27, you might as well forget it against this blitzing defense.

Penalties didn’t become a huge story on the night – thank God – with both teams getting flagged 6 times. The Chiefs actually had more penalty yardage than the 49ers (55-40), so we can put the conspiracy theories to rest on the Swifties getting the calls.

But right from the second drive you could see pass protection was going to be an issue for Mahomes. Left tackle Donovan Smith was beat cleanly for a sack by Chase Young, and the 49ers almost brought Mahomes down for another sack before he scrambled for 4 yards on 3rd-and-14 on another short drive.

While the quarter ended scoreless, the 49ers had a drive going and it was actually the secondary receivers who were making the big plays. Chris Conley (18 yards) and Ray Ray McCloud (19 yards) pulled in back-to-back plays that gained more yards than the Chiefs had in the entire first quarter (16 yards).

Things were looking like 4 years ago when the 49ers played very well on defense and the game swung on a crucial 3rd-and-15 in the fourth quarter. But so far, Purdy was holding up very well and Mahomes wasn’t able to get in a rhythm.

This was only the 10th scoreless first quarter in Super Bowl history. The previous 5 all involved the Patriots.

The Second Quarter: Strange

After Kansas City corner Trent McDuffie made a great play to prevent a long touchdown to Deebo Samuel, the 49ers decided to try a 55-yard field goal. I’ve been hammering on Jake Moody being problematic as a rookie kicker, but he made me eat crow in this game. He calmly hit a 55-yard field goal, which was a Super Bowl record (for the time being) to get the first points on the board.

I’ll bemoan the Chiefs and their short-yardage flaws later, but they were getting creative with Rashee Rice taking a handoff on a 3rd-and-1 to convert on the ground. He actually looked like he tried to pitch it forward on the play, which should have been a penalty in my book, but nothing was said or flagged. Instead, it goes down as a fumble in the play-by-play that the Chiefs recovered, a theme of the night as they would recover 6 of the 7 fumbles in this game.

After Rice’s odd play, Mahomes went deep and found Mecole Hardman for the longest play of the game at 52 yards, which was hilarious since he is usually so awful at tracking the ball in the air. But he made that play work and the Chiefs had life. However, Pacheco continued what turned out to be a bad game for him and he fumbled from the 9-yard line, making sure the obligatory fumble was alive and well for Kansas City.

This kicked off a series of strange events, including Kelce’s meltdown on the sideline where he approached coach Andy Reid and was visibly frustrated with not being on the field for the Pacheco fumble:

We know he’s an emotional player, but this was a bad look for Kelce. The Chiefs followed that play up with a horse collar tackle of Purdy, but the defense delivered with a third-down pressure that led to a sack of Purdy. The Chiefs lost out on points on the Pacheco fumble, but at least it was still 3-0.

But the pressure on Mahomes was becoming the story again in a Super Bowl. The next drive was torpedoed from the first snap when Mahomes was pressured, held onto the ball a bit too long, and he tried to throw the ball away in the vicinity of his receiver. The officials didn’t agree and flagged him for intentional grounding, bringing up a 2nd-and-20. That call was iffy. The drive ended with Mahomes scrambling again for a few yards to avoid a sack.

In the end, Mahomes ended up taking 3 sacks on the night, and it could have easily been double that or more. Keep in mind, the only game in Mahomes’ NFL career where he took 5 sacks was against the Cardinals in 2018. Their head coach was Steve Wilks, who is San Francisco’s defensive coordinator. Things were looking good for his unit so far in this one.

Unfortunately, the 49ers lost a very good linebacker in Dre Greenlaw prior to this drive when he injured his Achilles in a freak moment of celebration coming onto the field. I’ve never seen anything quite like this:

What an awful way for your season to end. But the Chiefs were starting to lose their composure with another 15-yard penalty going against L’Jarius Sneed on the ensuing drive. Two plays later, the 49ers dialed up a trick play with wide receiver Jauan Jennings making the long pass back to CMC, who was left alone for a 23-yard touchdown to take a 10-0 lead. Pretty play with a sweet camera angle like this:

Like clockwork, it’s a Chiefs’ Super Bowl with Patrick Mahomes and they’re down 10 points. It’s happened all four times now, but they obviously have the experience at winning these games.

After CEH was stuffed for no gain (predictable) and Hardman was flagged for a false start, Mahomes was facing a 3rd-and-9 at his 40 at the 2-minute warning. I saw this as the play of the game so far:

Mahomes had barely thrown the ball before this drive, but in the big moment, he bought himself time and found Justin Watson for 21 yards. Huge play as the 49ers were not able to manage the clock and really give themselves another shot to score before halftime. The Chiefs marched into the red zone, but their play calls were a bit odd with Rice getting another rush on 2nd-and-7. Mahomes took another sack on 3rd down and the Chiefs had to kick a 28-yard field goal, but at least it was points on the board.

The Chiefs could have done a lot worse than 10-3 at the half.

The Third Quarter: Turning Point

This game was always going to come down to the second half, and we had all those interesting stats to watch play out here:

  • The Chiefs allowed the fewest points after halftime
  • The 49ers scored the most points after halftime
  • The Chiefs scored the 3rd-fewest points after halftime
  • The 49ers allowed the 2nd-fewest points in the 4th quarter

With numbers like that and the way these teams have recently played, I thought maybe we’d see a role reversal and the 49ers would have to be the team trying to come back this time. But instead, it was business as usual with Mahomes trying to lead the Chiefs back.

Things got off to a horrendous start when on the first play of the half, Mahomes pitched back to Pacheco and he didn’t handle it and nearly caused a fumble, an unforced error. That made it 2nd-and-22, practically short-circuiting another KC drive on the first snap, something that happened a solid 3 or 4 times in this game. The pitch from Mahomes could have been better, but Pacheco was caught looking upfield early.

Two plays later, Mahomes made his only real mistake with an interception on a forced throw on 3rd-and-12. In the first half, his only 2 incompletions were the debatable grounding and a pass Justin Watson could have caught but didn’t. This was the first time Mahomes really put the ball in danger and missed.

But the 49ers did not make him pay for it from the Kansas City 44. They called 3 straight passes, had a false start in the mix, and Purdy ended up scrambling for 4 yards on 3rd-and-15 to end the drive with a punt. This is why many might say the 49ers lost this game in the third quarter when they failed to take advantage of moments like this and passed too much. There is some truth to that, but it’s also true that they needed more points to win, and CMC was getting stuffed pretty well ever since his fumble. Purdy looked like he was handling the moment fine, but the Chiefs did get creative and relentless with their 3rd-down blitz packages.

But this was turning into a really lousy Super Bowl at this point with the teams unable to move the ball. The Chiefs went 3-and-out again after Pacheco was stuffed on a 3rd-and-1, because they refuse to run the tush push or normal quarterback sneak.

Purdy tried to create something with a pass to Jennings, but he lost 8 yards and killed the drive for another 3-and-out.

At this point, Mahomes started to take matters into his own hands, or more accurately – his own legs. He scrambled for 4 yards to convert a 3rd-and-4, then he took off by design for 22 more yards. But the drive stalled and Harrison Butker made sure Moody’s record didn’t hold up for 2 full quarters as he nailed a 57-yard field goal to make it 10-6.

The kickers at least showed up to play.

This game really needed a spark as the teams went back to trading 3-and-out drives. I was thinking the Chiefs were now going to win 13-10, fueling the conspiracy theories about it being fixed – 13 is Taylor Swift’s lucky number – and taking away one of my favorite stats where Tom Brady is the only quarterback to win a Super Bowl scoring 13 points. Actually, he did it twice too if you consider the offense only scored 13 in Super Bowl 36 against the Rams.

But with just under 3 minutes left in the quarter, we had our turning point on a real fluke of a play.

The 49ers were trying to field the punt, it grazed the heel of a San Francisco player, and McCloud did not make a great effort to pick up the ball. The Chiefs got it instead and were only 16 yards away from the lead. Mahomes immediately found MVS wide open for a go-ahead touchdown and the game was on at 13-10.

After the Chiefs took their first lead of the game, this really woke everyone up and led to one of the greatest finishes in Super Bowl history.

The Fourth Quarter: Back and Forth

We know even a 3-point deficit to start the fourth quarter is usually a deathblow for a Kyle Shanahan team in San Francisco. But things have been different this postseason, and they were driving again behind Purdy this time.

But what a ballsy call Shanahan made that will largely be forgotten because of the loss. Facing a 4th-and-3 at the Kansas City 15 with 12:46 left, Shanahan had his offense go for it and bypassed the game-tying field goal. I have to say I probably would have kicked it given the low-scoring game and the fact it was 3 yards to go, and you weren’t even in goal-to-go. A lot of risk with that call, but Purdy found Kittle, and he made his only real positive contribution of the game as a receiver with a 4-yard conversion.

Two snaps later, Purdy found Jennings over the middle and he fought his way into the end zone for a 10-yard touchdown to regain the lead. Could it really be possible that Jennings would win Super Bowl MVP with his touchdown pass and touchdown catch? I really think it would have happened if the 49ers held on to win in regulation, but a lot of time remained (11:22).

Also not good was Kansas City blocking the extra point, keeping it a 16-13 game. We could argue this ended up benefitting the 49ers later as it made the Chiefs feel content with a field goal to tie the game on the next drive instead of having to go for a touchdown on 4th down. Mahomes was sacked again on 3rd-and-goal at the 3, making the field goal a no-brainer in a 16-13 game for the Chiefs.

All things considered, I’d still much prefer to be up 17-13 and make the Chiefs go for a touchdown as they have had some issues with the red zone at times this year. Also, you never know when a low snap will derail their drive as that was a problem in this game again, and it was nearly a disaster with just under 10 minutes left. Mahomes had to field the poor snap and throw the ball away, narrowly avoiding another turnover. Creed Humphrey is a 2-time Pro Bowl center, but someone needs to work on his shotgun snaps with him because this is past the point of ridiculous.

We were tied again with 5:46 left. It wouldn’t be easy, but the 49ers had a chance to work the clock and kick a game-winning field goal with no time left. The Chiefs were down to 2 timeouts after Reid wasted one early in the third quarter to set up a Pacheco run on 3rd-and-1 that failed. In fact, that sequence was nutty as he could have challenged a possible bad spot on a Kelce catch that brought up that 3rd-and-1, but instead he just wasted a timeout for nothing. It really could have haunted the Chiefs here as the 49ers came so close to making this the knockout drive and finally delivering a Super Bowl ring to Shanahan.

A pass to Kittle for no gain was not an ideal outcome, but the play took so long that the 49ers did not have to run another play until the 2-minute warning, which was huge. This basically put the game on a 3rd-and-5 at the Kansas City 35. If the 49ers could convert, they could run out most of the clock on the Chiefs and kick the winning field goal.

But Spags sent another blitz and Trent McDuffie was the hero with a pass defensed in Purdy’s face. According to Next Gen Stats, Kansas City’s blitzing led to 9 unblocked pressures, their most in any game this season, and none were bigger than that one by McDuffie.

Again, credit Moody for silencing the critics with a 53-yard field goal. He played a great game. The 49ers led 19-16 and it was like watching a reverse of the 1988’s season Super Bowl when Joe Montana broke the Cincinnati Bengals’ hearts for the 49ers in a 20-16 comeback win.

Mahomes was going to have his moment with 1:53 and 2 timeouts left, an eternity for him to drive 75 yards for the winning touchdown. He made getting into field goal range look easy, but things perked up for the touchdown when he found Kelce on a 3rd-and-7 for 22 yards, getting out of bounds at the San Francisco 11 with 10 seconds left.

Kelce had 1 yard at halftime and still finished the game with 93 yards, his 13th-striaght playoff game with at least 70 yards (next closest is 7 games).According to Next Gen Stats, Kelce reached a top speed of 19.68 miles per hour on that 22-yard gain, his fastest speed in the last 7 seasons. That’s a pretty good argument for “wanting it more” on the big stage with your super-famous girlfriend watching.

But there wasn’t a Hollywood ending with Kelce catching the winning touchdown in regulation. The Chiefs only really had one shot at it, and while Mahomes went to Kelce, the play wasn’t there and they had to kick the field goal. Butker did his job from 29 yards out and we were getting overtime as Purdy took a knee with 3 seconds left.

Overtime: Underthinking the New Rules?

I have been wanting to see an overtime playoff game ever since they changed the rules two seasons ago. The irony is they changed them because of the way the Chiefs beat Buffalo in that 42-36 game in the divisional round. The Chiefs tied it in 13 seconds, they won the coin toss, drove down the field for a walk-off touchdown and Josh Allen, in his finest moment, never saw the ball again.

We can’t keep letting that happen just as it should have changed after Super Bowl LI ended that way between the Falcons and Patriots, and then again two years later when these Chiefs lost that way to the Patriots in the 2018 AFC Championship Game.

So, the Chiefs have been on both sides of this, but now they were in uncharted territory with the new rules allowing for both teams to get a possession even if there’s a touchdown. Well, a safety on the opening drive ends it too as would a defensive return touchdown. It’s a little weird to talk about, but the heart of the rule change is definitely in the right spot and we should see more fair outcomes like this was.

But new rules should mean new strategies, and I’m not sure Shanahan and the 49ers thought this one through in overtime.

In college, the common strategy is to go on defense first because you’ll know what you need on offense. I have to think that translates a lot here in the NFL’s new overtime system too. I think you go first on defense so you know what you need, and you can get it by playing 4-down football with no time rush at all. That means 4 plays to get 10 yards the whole way, and it doesn’t matter if the clock expires and you’re still trailing. The game will just go to overtime No. 2.

At least that’s my understanding of it now. During the game, I was not sure about the clock situation, and I know I wasn’t alone in that.

But in getting back to the strategy, I just don’t think you can realistically give Mahomes the ball last. Even if you get a touchdown and lead by 7 points, they can march down, score the touchdown, and go for 2 and the win and you never see the ball again. That is allowed, so the argument of “you get the first crack at a second possession” doesn’t sit well with me when Mahomes is the opponent.

Plus, if you go first like San Francisco, you are rather limited by more conventional, 3-down football. You are more likely to kick a field goal if it’s available. That’s just the nature of the game.

I also don’t buy the “49ers needed to rest the defense” argument. The Chiefs did run 11 more plays in the second half, but the 49ers won time of possession for the game (38-36 minutes). You really couldn’t handle a 2-minute drill that involved 2 timeouts, which was followed by another couple minute break before overtime?

And there is no guarantee of rest. The 49ers were about to go 3-and-out in overtime if not for a weak holding penalty on McDuffie on a 3rd-and-13 incompletion. They would have been right back on that field and with the Chiefs only needing a field goal if not for that call.

Like I said, if the Chiefs go first, they are going to be a little more careful and conservative, not always using 4 downs and going for the kill with the touchdown. With the game Pacheco was having, let them run more conventional plays instead of putting the game in Mahomes’ hands. Then even if Mahomes drives for a touchdown, you know they’re kicking the extra point. You get it back, down 7, and you can go win it with 8 and take your time in the process.

I just think it was absolutely the wrong call by San Francisco to go on offense first against Mahomes. You might get away with that against Burrow or Lamar. Not this quarterback.

Sure enough, the 49ers did not finish the job. They reached the Kansas City 9 before McCaffrey was stuffed, then another pressure by Chris Jones forced Purdy to throw the ball away, bringing out the field goal team on 4th-and-4. If they were more aggressive or behind, they are going for that 4th-and-4. But given the situation, it is practically impossible to bypass that field goal, so you take it and pray the Chiefs screw up or you get the ball again.

By the way, the 49ers were 3-of-12 on 3rd down while the Chiefs were 9-for-19. That mattered a lot too.

With 7:22 left, Mahomes was 75 yards away from one of the biggest legacy drives in NFL history. He could join the exclusive club of 3 Super Bowl winners, and it is the first time in NFL history we’ve ever seen a trailing team with the ball in overtime of the Super Bowl.

But it almost ended in 4 snaps. Pacheco was stuffed on another 3rd-and-1 run, and that’s when I thought this team’s refusal to run the quarterback sneak was going to cost them a championship. They just will not do it with Mahomes because he dislocated his kneecap in a freak accident play in Denver in 2019. It’s chickenshit logic that reminds me of how my uncle won’t eat kielbasa (unless it’s Easter or Christmas) because he ate a piece of glass from a package of it decades ago. Apparently, they screen out all the glass for holidays.

On 4th-and-1, season on the line, the Chiefs did put the ball in Mahomes’ hands, but it was on a keeper and he ran for 8 yards to save the game. Then MVS tried to give up the repeat bid on the next snap. Instead of cutting his losses on a play, he kept running backwards and lost 3 yards to set up 2nd-and-13. At least he made up for it with a 7-yard gain, then Mahomes found Rice to settle things down for 13 yards on 3rd-and-6.

Another 3rd-and-1 came up, and it was another scramble by Mahomes for 19 yards into the red zone that started to make this ending feel predictable, or inevitable with Kansas City. Pacheco ran for 3 more yards, Kelce caught a short one and took it 7 yards as you could see he wanted the touchdown so bad.

But that made it 1st-and-goal at the 3, and the clock just continued to tick down. Honestly, I wasn’t sure if the game was about to end or go to another overtime at this point, because the idea of a clock expiring with a team still trailing and the game continuing just doesn’t compute for me in the NFL (or NBA).

I found out after the game the rule is that if the second team’s initial possession has not been completed yet, the game does extend to a second overtime. So that’s that.

But with the Chiefs playing it casually and the 49ers not calling a timeout, the ending was almost anticlimactic as Mahomes hit Hardman with one of those uncovered passes to the flat they beat the Eagles with a year ago. Enjoy the Korean call of it:

After berating the wide receivers since Week 1, we watched Mahomes complete 9-of-13 passes for 131 yards and 2 touchdowns in the Super Bowl to the trio of Mecole Hardman, MVS, and Justin Watson. Meanwhile, Purdy was 8-of-20 for 86 yards throwing to his stud trio of Deebo, Kittle, and Aiyuk. That was largely the ballgame as CMC did finish with 80 yards on the ground and 80 through the air. Jennings stepped up. The run defense stepped up against Pacheco. The pass rush was very strong early for the 49ers before Mahomes started finding rushing lanes to exploit.

There wasn’t a singular moment this time as much as in LIV when Mahomes finding Tyreek Hill on 3rd-and-15 was the difference maker. But the 49ers had a few chances to put this game away and just didn’t do it.

That Shanahan, always a bridesmaid. I think he should have kicked off in overtime. Instead, we watched Mahomes become the first quarterback in NFL history with multiple walk-off touchdown passes in the postseason. He was the last to do it under the old rules, and he’s the first to do it in the first game with the new rules.

That is some king shit. So is having three of the top 5 postseasons in QBR for a Super Bowl-winning quarterback since 2006:

With 333 passing yards, 66 rushing yards, and 2 touchdown passes, Mahomes won his third Super Bowl MVP award. He is the only player to win that award for 3 consecutive rings won. Even Joe Montana needed to reach a fourth after Jerry Rice won the MVP for his third ring. Tom Brady’s third ring saw Deion Branch win the Super Bowl MVP against the 2004 Eagles.

Montana, Brady, and Mahomes all won their third Super Bowl in a season where they beat the No. 1 scoring defense on the road in the Conference Championship round.

But the 2023 Chiefs are the first team to ever beat 4 teams in the same postseason that had a +100 scoring differential in the regular season. They did this despite not being one of those teams themselves as they were only +77.

But after trailing the Bengals 17-7 in Week 17, the offense hit a switch, and it reached a level it could win games at with this defense providing a stellar performance since Week 1. The Chiefs never gave up more than 27 points in any game this season, and they even held all but one opponent under 25 points. You’re not going to put this defense on a historic level with the 2000 Ravens, 2002 Buccaneers, or 2013 Seahawks, but they were legitimately great this year and helped the team overcome one of the toughest postseason paths anyone has taken to a Super Bowl win.

You can say this is a team that got hot at the right time and carried that all the way to a Super Bowl win. But unlike the 2011 Giants or 2012 Ravens, this team has staying power and can do it again. This is closer to the 1988 49ers shaking off a 10-6 regular season and winning the third Super Bowl in the Joe Montana era, and we know what kind of encore that team had in 1989.

Conclusion: Yes, It’s a Dynasty and Mahomes Is 1-of-1

It’s been 19 long years, but we can finally add another dynasty to the annals of NFL history. The Chiefs were the expected pick to replace the Patriots for this years ago, but they gave us pause on multiple occasions since winning that first Super Bowl right around the time the world was starting to face a global pandemic with COVID-19.

They lost 31-9 to the Buccaneers in Super Bowl LV. They blew a 21-3 lead to the Bengals a year later at home in the AFC Championship Game. Then I thought last year would be the crowning achievement of Patrick Mahomes’ career, winning that Super Bowl with an MVP season and top offense after losing Tyreek Hill, then navigating that playoff run on a high-ankle sprain.

But this season was almost more impressive in some ways. He didn’t play as well individually, but he hung in there through the rough losses, the league-leading wide receiver drops, the excessive penalties and fumbles, and he knew he could trust the defense this time. Then they got it done on the road in the playoffs twice after never having to leave Arrowhead in January before. They took down both No. 1 seeds. They came back from 10 points down in this game. He had nearly 400 yards of offense and was flawless in overtime.

I always ask what is Mahomes’ weakness? I don’t think in 114 starts he has shown one yet. You have a better chance if you can make him hold the ball and throw low-percentage passes down the field, but we’ve also seen him destroy some teams by extending the play. Even in this game, I think that 3rd-and-9 conversion to Watson at the 2-minute warning in the first half was a game-changing moment to keep the Chiefs alive.

In all of NFL history, we have not seen a quarterback play this well so consistently while still being able to win at such a high level as often as Mahomes has. Usually, dynasties were stacked on defense, or they could run the ball really well, or they just didn’t have to rely on the quarterback as much. But the Chiefs are an outlier because their quarterback might just be 1 of 1 in this game.

My interest in the NFL was starting to wane in the 2017 season. Maybe it was the 7-year itch or burnout of covering this stuff 52 weeks a year with no real breaks. Getting into gambling helped some that year, but Mahomes taking over for the Chiefs in 2018 and instantly turning this into a historic team that’s always setting some record has rejuvenated my interest more than anything.

I want to make sure Mahomes and the Chiefs are being covered properly for their place in history. So, when a big game like this one comes up, I put things into perspective for what a win or loss means for the team. When Mahomes is telling CBS in his pre-game taped interview that dynasty is the goal, and Jim Nantz starts off the 6:00 p.m. broadcast window with dynasty talk, it was the big story of the night. The Chiefs would hands down be a dynasty with a third championship in five seasons.

But if they had lost this game? Then you start having people looking differently at a team that’s only 2-2 in the Super Bowl, and at a quarterback who had 5 touchdowns and 5 interceptions in those Super Bowls before the blocked punt changed the dynamics of this game. Suddenly it’s “what if Purdy didn’t get injured in Philly last year; he might be 2-0 in the Super Bowl and have more rings than Mahomes.”

You nip that talk in the bud by performing and winning the game, which he did again. Does it take some luck too like a muffed punt off a teammate’s heel? Does it take a defense stopping a great offense repeatedly on third down, and a kicker you can rely on for a long field goal? Yeah, it takes some combo of that too, every time.

It wouldn’t be the ultimate team game without those things. But where I take issue is when people still try to belittle his accomplishments by poorly comparing and equating them to some of the only quarterbacks you can even still compare Mahomes to as a 2-time MVP and 3-time Super Bowl MVP.

They’ll say Mahomes doesn’t win without his defense this year. Yeah, as if Bart Starr, Terry Bradshaw, Joe Montana, Troy Aikman, and Tom Brady were winning shootouts all the time and didn’t almost exclusively have top 10 defenses when they won their rings. Meanwhile, Mahomes is the only quarterback to win a Super Bowl when his team allowed 25 points per game in the postseason, and he’s done it twice. That number was much lower this year (15.8), but he still can’t hold a candle to Montana, who won 3 rings in postseasons where the 49ers did not allow more points than the 35 the Eagles scored in last year’s Super Bowl.

They’ll say Mahomes threw a pick in this game. But will they note it was on 3rd-and-12 and the 49ers went 3-and-out from midfield with it? It’s not like he threw a pick-6 to Robert Alford to fall behind 21-0. Will they acknowledge their King of Kings from New England, even in his best Super Bowl moment against the 2003 Panthers, threw a terrible red-zone pick midway through the fourth quarter when he could have taken a 2-score lead? Or that his game-winning drive that day started at the 40-yard line in a tied game after John Kasay sailed the kickoff out of bounds? Not quite driving 75 yards for the touchdown while facing a deficit in overtime, is it?

Also, will they ever acknowledge Montana had 4 turnovers before The Catch happened in the 1981 NFC Championship Game? Still put up enough points and won the game with a clutch drive, didn’t he? That used to be enough for the old days, but you know they fear Mahomes when they have to treat him differently and start holding him to standards they never put the past greats through.

But he keeps finding ways to succeed, and he should be the new standard for quarterback play if we are being honest about things. Does that mean he’ll win a lot more rings going forward? That will depend on what the rest of the league does more than anything. But I never believed for a second that Mahomes needs to win 7 or 8 Super Bowls to be the GOAT.

He’s up to 3 before his 29th birthday. He has some wiggle room as the LOAT did not win his 4th until he was 37 years old. Mahomes can win next year for the first 3-peat in the Super Bowl era. If he can do that, then win a fifth down the road without Reid and Kelce, I don’t see how anyone can reasonably deny him, assuming he’s also not done winning MVP awards and setting the pace for the most yards and touchdown passes in NFL history.

Mahomes and the Chiefs are a historic team, and that keeps me interested in the future to see where this story grows and goes. This was my 13th season of coverage, and it was a challenging one. I was dealt a personal shock in August, just 3 days after one of my oldest cats died, that I still am not really over. I guess you can say I should have researched this girl I thought I knew for the last 6-7 years as well as I’ve researched Mahomes for his 7 seasons as an NFL quarterback. Be careful who you trust in this world. There aren’t many people who are genuinely looking out for your best interests.

Then it seems like I’ve been sick every day since December, which is why I’ve had so many short posts on here for prediction pieces on the weekend because I usually didn’t feel that great. Just a lot of sinus stuff with sneezing attacks, then I got the flu in January for a couple of weeks, and I’m still coughing at times from that.

Hopefully there isn’t another pandemic brewing since the Chiefs took down the 49ers in the Super Bowl again, just like when COVID started four years ago.

I’m not sure what my offseason plans include, but I expect to be back for another season of NFL coverage. It is a grind, though. I’d love to make use of the next 7 months to also make sure I’m taking care of my mental and physical health better, since that can go ignored during the grind of the season.

But the offseason always hits better when the Super Bowl outcome was to your liking. At least I got closure from something I love this year.

NFL Stat Oddity: 2023 Conference Championship Games

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

We were so close to ending the season how it started, but the Detroit Lions lost a heartbreaker in San Francisco after blowing a 24-7 halftime lead. It happened so quickly too as ball security doomed the Lions.

Ball security was the concern for the Chiefs this year, but outside of a Mecole Hardman lowlight for the ages in Buffalo, they avoided those mistakes this postseason, and that’s why they are heading to their fourth Super Bowl in the last five years. Only the 1990-93 Bills and 2014-18 Patriots can say they’ve done that.

Experience really did seem to win out Sunday as the Chiefs and 49ers have been in the last several championship games while the Lions and Ravens sunk in unchartered water for those franchises. You saw the Chiefs handle business early and late while the Ravens imploded. The Lions started so strong, but we’ll talk about that horrific third quarter that ended them.

Both road teams covered in games decided by a grand total of 10 points, but there was actually just 1 lead change all day, and the Ravens technically didn’t have a 4th-quarter comeback attempt as they never had the ball when trailing by 1-8 points. But that still means they finished this season without a single game-winning drive.

There is a lot to cover, not just from Sunday’s games but also from past talking points from earlier in the season that played out amusingly on Championship Sunday. It is a Super Bowl rematch at the end of the year, but it’s 54 and not 47.

Music to my ears.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Chiefs at Ravens: Patrick Mahomes + Elite Defense = Nightmare Combo for NFL

I had to break this one down into sections to make sure all the talking points are covered.

Giving Flowers to the Right Guy for This One

I am going to start by praising someone who should go down as one of the key contributors to this Kansas City run that still has a shot at getting the dynasty label if they can finish the job in Vegas.

Steve Spagnuolo is an all-time great defensive coordinator, and this run probably isn’t what it is if the team never hired him in 2019. Those 2018 Chiefs were so explosive on offense and so terrible on defense under coordinator Bob Sutton. That’s how you lose a 54-51 game to Jared Goff. If they didn’t make that switch after the title game loss to the Patriots, I think you’d see these early Mahomes seasons as another one of those offensive juggernauts that watches their defense get shredded every January and has an empty trophy case.

Spagnuolo never found success as a head coach, but that doesn’t mean you can’t be a great coordinator and specialist. He fits that mold. The 2007 Super Bowl run with the Giants is his biggest achievement when he held the 18-0 Patriots to 14 points in Super Bowl 42.

But even that year, his regular season defense left something to be desired, and the same was true in Kansas City until this year when they had great numbers across the board, they never allowed more than 27 points in any game, and they allowed the fewest points after halftime with his adjustments.  But in big games, you can usually trust Spags to deliver something. They sacked Joe Burrow 5 times in last year’s AFC Championship Game, and they were all over Lamar Jackson in Baltimore on Sunday.

In a league where so many of the top defensive minds have repeatedly seen their defenses tank in the playoffs and make opponents look better than average (yeah, we’re calling out Mike Tomlin and Sean McDermott, among others), Spagnuolo usually exceeds expectations with his defense.

This is Andy Reid’s offense, but Spagnuolo is his defensive ace in the hole. Another great job on Sunday.

The Unbelievable Start

Over bettors (44.5) have to be in shambles this one ended 17-10, because the start of the game was unbelievable stuff.

The Chiefs were right to kick off after winning the coin toss. I liked receiving first for the underdogs in the last two rounds, but the Chiefs are a veteran team, and an early 7-0 hole isn’t going to bother them. But they started things properly with a three-and-out, then the offense went to work with another brilliant opening drive in a playoff game.

Patrick Mahomes would set a tone for the day that he was going to get the ball out quickly and to his best players. He converted a 4th-and-2 with a nice grab by Travis Kelce for 13 yards, and it was right back to Kelce with safety Kyle Hamilton in coverage for a 19-yard touchdown to open the scoring.

The Ravens were able to answer with a helter-skelter drive where Lamar Jackson almost got called for intentional grounding after a deep retreat, took off for 21 yards on a 4th-and-1 QB Power run from his own 34, then avoided a sack from Willie Gay’s replacement at linebacker only to find Zay Flowers alone for a 30-yard touchdown to tie the game. Wild stuff, but you can see early on from that drive that the Chiefs were bringing it after finishing No. 2 in pressure rate and sacks this season.

The Chiefs answered with another great drive where they converted all 4 of their third-down opportunities, including a ridiculous play from Mahomes to Kelce where he held the ball for nearly 10 seconds, and Kelce made a great diving catch. Isiah Pacheco finished the drive off with a 2-yard touchdown run a few minutes into the second quarter.

After three straight touchdown drives, this looked like it might be a wild shootout, proving a couple of multiple MVP winners outweigh the presence of the top two scoring defenses. But that would be the end of the touchdowns for the day.

The Defenses Step Up

Remember how the Chiefs almost got to Jackson on the touchdown drive? They got to him good on the ensuing drive, and the blindside hit produced a strip-sack and the Chiefs suddenly had the ball at the Baltimore 33.

But instead of taking a 21-7 lead, the Chiefs were stopped after driving 20 yards and turned it over on downs. It looked like Kelce had a 3rd-and-9 conversion, but the replay proved he was just a hair short. The Chiefs’ refusal to run the quarterback sneak since Mahomes was injured (dislocated kneecap) on that play in Denver in 2019 is a real bummer, because they are depriving themselves of the most effective play from scrimmage in this game. They tried to run Pacheco for the 4th-and-1, but he was stuffed and the Chiefs blew the opportunity from the fumble.

Without standout guard Joe Thuney available, the Chiefs didn’t have much of a strong push in the interior line against a tough defense, especially after those first two drives. The backs only finished with 69 yards on 25 carries.

Then when Jackson caught his own pass on a deflection for a 13-yard gain, it was starting to look like maybe this would be Baltimore’s day after another shaky start. This play was shades of Tennessee’s Marcus Mariota catching his own pass and scoring a touchdown in the 2017 wild card upset in Arrowhead.

Incredibly, Jackson went to halftime with only 4 completions besides that play. The Chiefs did not let him get into a rhythm, and some of the play-calling from Baltimore was questionable. How does Gus Edwards get 1 carry in the first half when it went for 15 yards? I used to think under Greg Roman that Jackson would struggle in these Kansas City games because he’d try to keep up with Mahomes as a passer, and that’s just not what Baltimore is built to do.

Now you go to this game, and the Ravens had more passing efficiency this year than in years past, but the Chiefs have the right mixture of pass rush and strong corner play to make things very hard on Jackson. And if we’re being honest, was a receiving corps of Zay Flowers (rookie), Odell Beckham Jr. (aged veteran), and marginal receivers like Nelson Agholor (drops) and Rashod Bateman (ghostly at times) really all that great to begin with? Throw in Mark Andrews just coming back from injury.

Count that as another reason I was not buying the Baltimore offensive hype for why Jackson should win MVP. This was a good rushing team that is made better by Jackson’s rushing threat and production (especially as a scrambler), and they took advantage of the best field position from having the best defense to score more points than expected.

But they weren’t getting those short fields in this game. Even when they did, they did nothing with it like the drive with 2:47 left in the half. The Ravens started at their own 41, and it was a big opportunity to tie the game. But the offense went 3-and-out after Jackson threw a couple of incompletions.

The Chiefs took over with 1:46 left at their own 11, and the Ravens started to lose their composure with a couple of 15-yard penalties for unnecessary roughness on the defense, including a roughing the passer call for hitting Mahomes in the face. It may have been accidental, but it was a big shot to the face and an easy call.

But the Chiefs stalled just shy of the red zone after guard Trey Smith was called for back-to-back holding penalties. The second one wiped out a 33-yard touchdown on a screen to Rashee Rice, but it didn’t look like much of a hold either. The Chiefs ended up settling fo a 52-yard field goal, and Harrison Butker did well to split the uprights.

The Chiefs led 17-7 at halftime, flipping the script on the front-running Ravens who were used to leading at the half this year. But the Chiefs no doubt left some opportunities on the field for even more points.

The Scoreless Third

Again, the Chiefs allowed the fewest points after halftime this season, and their own offense had some issues at times after the half as well. Remember the 3-week stretch where they didn’t score a single point after halftime against the Broncos, Dolphins, and Eagles?

It happened again this time, adding to the misery of the Ravens that they couldn’t win a game where the Chiefs scored 3 points on their final 9 drives. In fact, the Chiefs are only the 7th team to win a playoff game where they didn’t score more than 17 points and didn’t score after halftime. It hadn’t happened since the 2005 Redskins beat Tampa Bay 17-10, the game I remember best for watching the weekend the furnace broke and it was bitter cold.

But it was fascinating watching these defenses repeatedly stop these offenses, especially after the way the game started with those 3 straight touchdown drives.

The Chiefs were not getting effective runs, center Creed Humphrey’s snaps were getting lower and lower, and the Ravens were getting wise to the short passes out to Rice and the running backs. They kept stifling those for no gain or even a loss of yards.

But the Ravens really weren’t doing any better outside of the odd completion to a running back in the flat. But after getting into Kansas City territory, Jackson was sacked on a 3rd-and-9 and knocked out of field goal range. The Ravens had to punt.

I read on Twitter the lights went out in the stadium during break, and my mind went to Super Bowl 47 (49ers-Ravens) when that happened in New Orleans. The Ravens were up big at the time, and the 49ers got back in the game after that delay. I was thinking are these hypocrites going to be okay with this possibly helping the Ravens calm down and finish this comeback? Did they purposely try it after what happened in that Super Bowl?

Well, it was done on purpose by Baltimore, and it was for a reason as corny as you could think of. They brought out Terrell Suggs to pump up the crowd and team. I didn’t even think you were allowed to do something like that except for before the kickoff. Talk about desperate.

But the Chiefs did go 3-and-out in their own end. When the Ravens got the ball back, Flowers was all alone for a 54-yard gain, but then he made the stupid decision of taunting and drew a 15-yard flag. Take your pick for that one. It could have been for standing over the receiver, throwing the ball at him, or talking trash. Just a stupid mistake to lose some of the yards from the longest play of the game.

But that mistake was quickly forgotten about as the game moved to the 4th quarter with the Ravens still down 17-7.

The Final Quarter

Flowers giveth and Flowers taketh away. He had a hard game to analyze because he made big plays with 115 yards and the team’s only touchdown. But he also self-destructed this drive and entered playoff lore with a fumble for the highlight reels for years to come. Earnest Byner? Jeremy Hill? Jerome Bettis? You have company from a division mate.

On the first play of the quarter, Flowers took a short pass from Jackson and looked like he was going to score. But the ball came out and the Chiefs recovered in the end zone for a touchback. Did he break the plane first for a score? I thought he did live, but replay was definitive and L’Jarius Sneed made perhaps his biggest play for the Chiefs with a forced fumble:

https://twitter.com/YahooSports/status/1751734825294397674/video/1

Incredible play. According to Next Gen Stats, this fumble cut Baltimore’s win probability in half from 28.3% to 13.5%. But it still felt like the Ravens had a chance if only because the Chiefs did not capitalize on a few opportunities to grow the lead.

But speaking of incredible plays, Mahomes took his first sack of the game and he almost got out of it before Jadeveon Clowney, who was penalized for roughing the passer on the previous play, got him down.

You really don’t want to see him bending like that in the playoffs, but that was close to an escape. But the Chiefs had to punt again, and it was a hell of a punt as it pinned the Ravens at their 1 with 10:35 left.

If Lamar wanted a legacy drive to restore some faith in this game, this was the chance. The field was obviously a long one to drive, but I can’t say the Ravens were helping themselves to make it look possible. When Jackson scrambled on a 3rd-and-1, I thought for sure he was waiting for a lane to take off for a scramble and first down, but he only hesitated more and took a sack for a 2-yard loss.

That was the moment where it felt like the Chiefs won the game if he’s making that kind of play on a 3rd-and-1. But the Chiefs really could have won the game if they stopped the Ravens on 4th-and-3 from their own 18 as I thought that was a ballsy call by John Harbaugh. Sure, they could justify going for that, but the defense was playing great and it’s game over without that conversion. But Jackson converted with a 6-yard pass to Odell Beckham, and that seemed to ease some pressure for the time being.

Agholor caught a 39-yard deep ball to get this drive moving faster, but two plays later, Jackson threw a pick in the end zone despite three defenders around tight end Isaiah Likely. Why in the world was Likely putting his hand up like he was Randy Moss? He wasn’t open.

Only 6:45 remained, but this was Kansas City’s second takeaway of the quarter. It was the first time since Week 7 against the Chargers that the Chiefs had multiple takeaways in a game. Ouch, Ravens. Ouch.

But the Chiefs went 3-and-out again after Mahomes was sacked for the second time. A good punt return gave the Ravens their best starting field position of the day at their 46, and they were able to set up a 43-yard field goal from Justin Tucker with 2:34 left to make it 17-10. Did the officials swallow their whistles a bit in the fourth quarter? Yeah, you could say that. But I don’t think there was anything egregious enough worth a flag on those final Baltimore throws. Jackson didn’t even have an intended target on the last one as he looked to throw it away out of bounds.

The Chiefs had 2:34 left to burn. Mahomes probably hasn’t been quite the God of 4-minute offense like he was in that 2020 season when he was automatic at putting the game away, but this was the opportunity here. The Ravens started the drive with too many men on the field for a 5-yard penalty, which is an embarrassing way to start a drive. Was it intentional? I’m not sure it could be to give any real advantage. Now knocking a lineman over pre-snap like the Ravens did on the next play, that was surely intentional to manipulate the clock. The Ravens even got popped for a 15-yard flag for that one, but the end result was 6 seconds passes and the Chiefs still had 1st-and-10 after moving up 20 yards.

After holding Pacheco to gains of -1 and 2 yards, the Ravens had what they wanted with a 3rd-and-9 at the 2:19 mark after having used their final timeout. A conversion wins the game for the Chiefs, and a stop gives the Ravens one more chance. It had to be a pass all the way.

The Ravens only rushed 4, and Mahomes decided to go deep to the unlikeliest of targets in Marquez Valdes-Scantling, but the receiver who seems to only show up for Championship Sunday made his best play all year with a 32-yard grab while falling down to complete the process of the catch. Here, it’s even better with the Korean audio calling it:

That’s ballgame. In the regular season, MVS likely drops that pass, and the Ravens get another shot. Maybe they blow it quickly. Maybe they force overtime with a touchdown. Maybe they win by going for 2. But the Chiefs avoided all of that drama because MVS finally just made the play and it clinched another playoff win, the 14th for this core group since 2018.

In the end, the best team won, the best quarterback won, and while the Ravens finished strong on defense, the Chiefs made the bigger plays on that side of the ball as well.

Lamar Jackson: Not Saying I Told You So, But…

I had a tweet go somewhat viral this week – almost 500,000 views for a longform post with no pictures or video is pretty good – that irked some fans of the Chiefs, Bills, and Ravens who largely misinterpreted what I was saying.

My point was Josh Allen is a great quarterback, Mahomes is better, but quarterback play is not how the Bills are ever going to get past the Chiefs and into a Super Bowl. They need their defense to step up and make Mahomes look mortal or knock him down a peg in a playoff game instead of making him even better than usual. Apparently, Joe Burrow and Tom Brady are the lucky ones who got their defenses to do that to Mahomes for a half or a full Super Bowl, or they won a coin toss in overtime and got the ball again unlike Josh in the 13 Seconds game. Buffalo’s failures on defense are why they haven’t gotten the job done despite the league’s 2nd-best record since 2019 and a 3-1 regular-season record against Mahomes. They implode defensively in the playoffs against Mahomes, and it isn’t Allen’s job to defend him better.

Along the way, I brought up Lamar Jackson and the fact he is 0-3 in the playoffs when the Ravens allow more than 13 points (0-4 now). I said he would implode against the Chiefs in those playoff games that Allen lost to them with Buffalo.

I’m not even going to repeat some of the ridiculous things people said to me about that part, but the idea that I was taking a shot at Lamar for no reason is just not true. He was Kansas City’s next opponent, and he is a top peer of Allen’s and Mahomes’ in this AFC. His history is relevant, and knowing his history as I did, that’s why my claim he would implode was not at all baseless. I had strong reasons to feel that way:

  • Lamar was 1-3 against the high-flying Chiefs of 2018-21, only winning in 2021 against their worst defense in a game where he still threw multiple picks and needed CEH to fumble in game-winning field goal territory.
  • Lamar is 3-14 against playoff teams that score more than 21 points against his team.
  • Why more than 21? Mahomes led the Chiefs to at least 22 points in 15-of-16 career playoff games before Sunday.
  • Why not include 21 points? Because scoring 21 points is a below-average scoring figure for every NFL season since 2007.
  • Finally, Lamar was 0-3 in the playoffs when teams scored more than 13 points, already losing 23-17 to the Chargers and 17-3 to Buffalo in a game where he threw a pick-six.

When you mix all of that together as I do in my mind, why would I expect anything but an implosion if he had to face a Kansas City team in the playoffs that scored 38, 42, and 27 points the way the Chiefs did against Allen’s Buffalo defense?

Sure enough, he imploded against the Chiefs in the playoffs, but it was in a low-scoring game, which makes it even worse. The Chiefs only scored 17 points on 11 drives. You’ll take that against Mahomes any chance you get. Even 17 points on 10 drives (Chiefs ran out clock on last drive) is great work by the defense.

The Ravens scored 10 points on 10 drives, which tied their lowest scoring output of the season with Lamar at quarterback. In fact, the team lost a pair of 17-10 games to Pittsburgh, and now it’s another 17-10 game in the playoffs. And Jackson was much better in that Pittsburgh loss than he was on Sunday. At least he can blame his receivers for dropping a couple of touchdowns that day.

He can blame Flowers for costing him a second touchdown drive in this game with that fumble at the 1, but this is still highly disappointing stuff in what was supposed to be his year with everything aligning and all the dominant wins over good teams they had.

But again, this continues to make Lamar look like a big outlier as he is now 4-for-4 at scoring his season low in the playoffs.

  • Lamar Jackson (100%): four times in four postseasons (2018, 2019, 2020, 2023-T)
  • Joe Flacco (28.6%): twice in seven postseasons (2009, 2023)
  • Philip Rivers (28.6%): twice in seven postseasons (2007, 2009)
  • Tom Brady (25.0%): five times in 20 postseasons (2005, 2007, 2011-T, 2012, 2019-T)
  • Cam Newton (25.0%): once in four postseasons (2015)
  • Peyton Manning (20.0%): three times in 15 postseasons (2002, 2004, 2013)
  • Josh Allen (20.0%): once in five postseasons (2022)
  • Matthew Stafford (20.0%): once in five postseasons (2016-T)
  • Patrick Mahomes (16.7%): once in six postseasons (2020)
  • Matt Ryan (16.7%): once in six postseasons (2011)
  • Russell Wilson (12.5%): once in eight postseasons (2015)
  • Drew Brees (10.0%): once in 10 postseasons (2020)
  • Dak Prescott (0.0%): zero times in 5 postseasons
  • Aaron Rodgers (0.0%): zero times in 11 postseasons
  • Ben Roethlisberger (0.0%): zero times in 12 postseasons

This was also Jackson’s fourth wire-to-wire playoff loss (never led), so if you’re still going to try comparing him to early Peyton Manning in the playoffs, just stop. It’s not close.

And it’s not like I was all for keeping this narrative alive, but you have to when this is the performance he’s putting out there in the biggest game of his career. For a change, I’d like to actually say I predicted a season’s Super Bowl winner before Week 1. I was not on the Kansas City repeat train. At least not until about 6:20 PM ET on Sunday.

The Ravens were my preseason Super Bowl pick and Lamar was my Super Bowl MVP. I got that one wrong again, but I really thought this could be their year, and they had what they needed with home-field advantage, a great defense, the best kicker, better receivers and scheme under the new offensive coordinator.

But this looked like your same old Ravens and same old Lamar in a big game. I actually think he should have ran the ball more than he did, because that’s where he still looks most comfortable and dangerous to me.

That’s why I never bought into the MVP surge for him that only came late in December after they had those big wins against the 49ers and Dolphins. But if you followed the season closely, you know that wasn’t your typical MVP season or offense. They had the shortest fields thanks to the defense that was No. 1 at points allowed, sacks, and takeaways.

I wrote earlier this week that any team that loses to Gardner Minshew, Kenny Pickett, and Deshaun Watson can certainly lose to Patrick Mahomes with the best defense of his career. It reminded me of when I said the 2007 Patriots aren’t going undefeated after seeing how they should have lost to A.J. Feeley (Eagles) and Kyle Boller (Ravens) in back-to-back weeks. I had to wait until deep in the Super Bowl for that one to com true.

I just needed Mahomes and the Chiefs to show up Sunday to take care of this one. And yes, I picked Lamar as the default MVP, because no one else deserved it. He doesn’t either as I have repeatedly said no one had a true MVP season in 2023. The race was always cooked, and someone was going to steal it late. I fundamentally don’t believe a quarterback should win MVP when their team is clearly driven by the best defense instead of the offense. Hopefully that won’t happen again in the future, but it was unavoidable with this season’s race.

The Five-Year Rule

If the Super Bowl couldn’t happen for them this year, when does it happen for the Ravens with Lamar? Does it ever happen with John Harbaugh as the coach, or do they move on there eventually? We’ve said similar things about Josh Allen and Sean McDermott in Buffalo, and sure enough, the Five-Year Rule survived its toughest challenge yet.

That was the article I wrote for FiveThirtyEight in 2017 about how no team has ever won its first Super Bowl starting the same quarterback for the same coach for more than 5 seasons.

Both drafted in 2018, this was already Year 6 for McDermott-Allen and Harbaugh-Jackson. I thought maybe the Ravens got some extra life for Lamar having back-to-back December injuries in 2021-22, so he didn’t really get a normal 5 seasons.

But nope, Mahomes and the Chiefs went on the road and slayed them both again. And this was supposed to be the worst Kansas City team with the worst offense and receivers. Remember, this Kansas City team lost at home to the Raiders with Andrew Walter Aidan O’Connell not completing a pass after the first quarter on Christmas. That was barely a full month ago.

But Mahomes continues to be the outlier. Maybe if he did get drafted by Chicago in 2017, the Bills and Ravens would have already been to a Super Bowl each. Maybe they still lose those games, but they should have at least been ready in the post-Brady AFC to take advantage.

Allen’s offensive output against the Chiefs in January has been just fine. It’s his defense that needs to step up. As I correctly predicted and we now have a data point of proof, Lamar’s offensive output against the Chiefs in the playoffs was trash today, and he is the one who needs to step up more than his defense in the postseason. That’s also evident by literally every playoff run of his career.

I hope that clears up why I talk about Allen as the best young active quarterback in the playoffs behind Mahomes. But like the rest of the league, they’re all looking up to the best player in the game.

Mahomes Is 1 of 1

Finally, what more can you say about Mahomes? Give him an elite defense and he’s right back in the Super Bowl. His QBR this postseason is also 90.2, which would be the 5th-highest since 2006 (min. 2 games).

It was a down year in the regular season for sure, but my argument for months has been that his play has not slipped as much as the mistakes around him (drops, fumbles, penalties) have shot up. It was always an outlier to have as many significant drops and penalties as they had to take away game-winning plays against the Lions, Eagles, and Bills, all playoff teams.

If they could just limit those mistakes, they were going to have a good shot at repeating behind Mahomes and the best defense of his career, and here we are. He’s now at 14 playoff wins, already tying him for 3rd all time with the likes of Terry Bradshaw, John Elway, and Peyton Manning.

Never won a road playoff game? Took care of that with a pair, and he was an underdog both times. That also gives him one up on Joe Montana and Tom Brady, who did something very similar the game before they won their 3rd Super Bowl ring:

  • In the 1988 NFC Championship Game before he won his 3rd Super Bowl, Joe Montana beat the No. 1 scoring defense (Bears) on the road in a 28-3 win (49ers were favored by 2).
  • In the 2004 AFC Championship Game before he won his 3rd Super Bowl, Tom Brady beat the No. 1 scoring defense (Steelers) on the road in a 41-27 win (Patriots were favored by 3).

Mahomes can win his 3rd ring now after beating the No. 1 scoring defense (Ravens) on the road in the AFC title game, but he also did it as a 4.5-point underdog.

Twenty years ago, I thought the 2003 AFC Championship Game ruined quarterback discourse for the next two decades when Tom Brady tried matching Peyton Manning pick for pick but only one defense made the quarterback pay for his mistakes. I thought the 2023 AFC Championship Game could have been a significant factor in how the next decade is viewed for quarterbacks, and maybe it will be.

But it will be to show that Mahomes is just in his own class right now.

The AFC let him get through last year on a high-ankle sprain. Having his health and a great defense is almost unfair now.

Lions at 49ers: Third Quarter from Hell Ends Dream Season for Detroit

I always thought the Lions (+7.5) had a decent shot this week despite the spread, because this team can score, it can run and pass, it can shut down the run, and you just know Dan Campbell is going to do some aggressive things.

Campbell is certainly facing criticism for his decisions in this game, but I don’t think that’s where Detroit lost its 24-7 lead. It was largely from one terrible quarter after what was nearly a flawless half.

The Lions were dominating on the ground with Jameson Williams scoring a 42-yard touchdown run and looking more like Deebo Samuel on the play to start the game. The 49ers missed a 48-yard field goal from rookie Jake Moody, exactly the type of break an underdog needs.

Brock Purdy forced a bad ball in the second quarter that was intercepted and not dropped this time, and that set up another Detroit touchdown run for a 21-7 lead. Purdy was a bit off again despite having Deebo back this week.

The Lions used the final 5 minutes of the half to get a field goal, and you’re almost shocked they decided to kick it from the 3-yard line given how much Campbell loves to go for it. But that was the right call as only 10 seconds remained, you don’t get the advantage of field position should you fail, and the 49ers were getting the ball to start the next half. Going up 24-7 was the right move.

At that point, Campbell and the Lions really could do no wrong. But after the 49ers quickly got a field goal, the Lions went on a fateful drive that changed everything. Their win probability was over 90% as they led 224-10 and were driving again after scoring on 4-of-5 drives in the first half.

But on a 4th-and-2 at the San Francisco 28, Campbell bypassed the 46-yard field goal and kept his offense on the field. Jared Goff threw a solid pass and Josh Reynolds just dropped the conversion. I think it was the right call as the Lions do not have a great kicker like a Matt Prater (former Lion), let alone Justin Tucker or Harrison Butker. I think trying to make the 49ers go down 21 was the right call, or you could also work on more clock and kick a shorter field goal that’s more likely to go in and make it a 17-point game again. My beef is with Reynolds for dropping it, not the call itself.

But that’s kind of where the game was lost. Reynolds didn’t make a fairly easy catch, and the 49ers had the break of the game when a deep ball for Brandon Aiyuk clanked off the facemask of defender Kindle Vildor, and Aiyuk caught it on the deflection for a huge 51-yard gain.

There was a flag initially thrown on the play but it was picked up entirely. That doesn’t mean it was declined, it was just not called, so if Vidor could catch, that’s an interception for Detroit. Instead, it’s a 51-yard gain and the longest play of the game. Do I have my new LOAT target in Purdy?

Aiyuk finished that drive for a touchdown to make it 24-17, then the Lions fumbled on a funky looking handoff to Jahmyr Gibbs on the very next snap, setting up the 49ers from 24 yards out for the tying touchdown, which they got on the ground with Christian McCaffrey.

It only took the 49ers about 12 minutes to erase that 17-point deficit. It just felt like the Lions were cooked at that point, and they did respond with a 3-and-out after Reynolds had another atrocious drop on 3rd-and-long that would have extended that drive.

The 49ers drove into scoring range after a big pass to George Kittle (28 yards) for his only positive gain of the game, but it was a big one. Despite back-to-back sacks by the Lions to stall the drive, the 49ers took their first lead at 27-24 with a 33-yard field goal.

The Lions moved the ball but were facing a 4th-and-3 at the San Francisco 30 with 7:38 left. I know it’s in the team’s DNA to go for it, but I think you really have to consider the field goal here. The 49ers were hot, your offense was a mess this half, and 48 yards is a reasonable kick. But the Lions went for it, and Goff was unable to connect with Amon-Ra St. Brown with half a quarter left. Uh-oh.

I know the other factor is kicker Michael Badgley is not a great player at all, and he could have easily missed that kick. But I’m just not sure going for it was the right call in that spot. If they were closer, I could see it, but time was a factor now, and you are playing an offense good enough to put the game away with another score.

That ended up being exactly what happened too. Now this debate with Purdy and system quarterbacks will wage on, but he is a better runner than Jimmy Garoppolo ever was, and his legs were very effective as a scrambler in this game. He was able to rip off a 21-yard run on a 3rd-and-4 from midfield that had to rip the hearts out of Detroit fans.

Then when McCaffrey finally had a big gain with a 25-yard run to the 3, you could see the end was a snap or two away. The 49ers punched it in and led 34-24 with 3:02 left. The Detroit Super Bowl dream was all but dead.

The hope was to get a touchdown while saving all the timeouts and having enough time to get a field goal or touchdown. They almost pulled it off, but I thought a pass in the flat to Anthony Firkser was a huge missed opportunity as he didn’t score on the play and instead got out at the 1-yard line. At least he got out to stop the clock, but when David Montgomery got stuffed for a 2-yard loss on 3rd down, that destroyed the drive. The Lions ended up having to burn a precious timeout, then decided to go for the touchdown anyway on 4th-and-goal given the dire prospects. Fortunately, Williams came down with a nice touchdown grab and that made it 34-31 with 56 seconds left.

But since they burned that timeout, it was all coming down to the onside kick. Those have gotten so hard to do and the number this year was reportedly 2-for-41 (4.9%). The Lions had a faint glimmer of hope for a second, but the 49ers recovered, and it would have been a penalty on Detroit for touching the ball before 10 yards anyway to negate a recovery. The game was over after the 49ers ran out every last second.

Just pure heartbreak for Detroit because they were so close and looked so good at halftime. I think the poor ball security killed them more than any choice to go for 4th down did, and maybe if they had a better kicker, they’d trust that more. You never know if you are going to get back to this point, but you have to think maybe Williams can develop into their WR2 to replace an awful Reynolds performance, and the best days could be ahead for Sam LaPorta and Jahmyr Gibbs. There’s some hope there but NFC is tough as it usually has a new flash in the pan team every year.

But one mainstay has been the 49ers, who are going to the Super Bowl for the 2nd time since 2019 and it’s a rematch with the Chiefs again. I’ll have to write so much about this game the next two weeks that it’s pointless to go into it now, but I think it can be a great game again. But it should be different from LIV.

If you told me the 49ers would trail after halftime the way they have this postseason, I’d never believe they made it to the Super Bowl. But they answered the bell with overcoming adversity, and you could still say they haven’t played their best on either side of the ball yet this postseason.

I hope these 2 weeks go quickly, because that should be a fun night in Vegas with this matchup. But definitely am a little bummed out the Lions didn’t finish the job and give their fan bases a Super Bowl appearance.

Next 2 weeks: I’m happy. The last thing I wanted was a Super Bowl with both No. 1 seeds as I always believed since Christmas night that would have produced an awful, one-sided game. And I was not looking forward to 2 weeks of researching if a pair of front-running teams can produce a close game or writing about “if Brock Purdy can just avoid the turnovers on deflected balls.” Well, I might still write something like that multiple times with many pieces to come on this game, but 49ers-Chiefs provides good writing opportunities with a recent history and teams that have changed quite a bit from 2019. I can dig it as the game to decide this 2023 season.

NFL Stat Oddity: 2023 Divisional Round

~ Scott ~ 1 Comment

Block out the first game of the weekend, and the NFL playoffs were back with points, lead changes, game-winning drives, game-ending interceptions, and questionable coaching decisions and flags from the officials. All the real drama this postseason was lacking last week.

Also, I’d love to see one of the charting sites confirm if this postseason has had more dropped interceptions than actual interceptions, because it sure feels like it has. The fact that Jordan Love and Baker Mayfield were the only quarterbacks to have a pick in their stat line this weekend is crazy, and even half of the pair they each threw was a deflection off their own receiver.

We also were reminded that kickers are people too, and like people, it sucks when they are too far right or far left. The Packers and Bills got a dose of that in their latest January exits.

But the streak of 27 quarters this postseason without a lead change ended Saturday night in San Francisco in a big way, and the games continued being competitive through Sunday too. It sets up a Championship Sunday where the No. 1 seeds (Ravens-49ers) will host the No. 3 seeds (Chiefs-Lions), and I know damn well which rematch I’d rather see in Super Bowl 58.

(Hint: It’s how this season started.)

But before we get to that, let’s go over the four games from this weekend.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Chiefs at Bills: History Did Repeat Itself (But It Was Buffalo Wide Right)

I spent the week comparing this game to the 2006 AFC Championship Game, which was played 17 years ago to the date on Sunday when the Colts came back from a 21-3 deficit to win 38-34 and slay that New England dragon in the playoffs so they could win a Super Bowl.

Well, history did repeat itself in Buffalo, but it looked more like Super Bowl 25 with the Bills playing the role of the ball-control Giants before ultimately revealing themselves to be who we thought they were: Buffalo, the wide right team. The drought continues for another year.

The Chiefs coughed up their worst Obligatory Fumble yet, and even that wasn’t enough for Buffalo to take this game. I am not going to force any more old narratives on this game and will just go over the facts of what happened. But I badly wanted to write early in the fourth quarter that the Kansas City offense was having its best game of the season, and the defense was trying to waste it with its worst.

That was definitely happening into the fourth quarter. Even though Buffalo never had a play gain more than 18 yards, the combination of effective short throws and a strong ground game (sometimes aided by Josh Allen) was producing points and draining clock at alarming rates for the Chiefs. The Bills had 24 points and were averaging 60 yards per drive on their first 5 possessions.

In the 3 divisional round games since 2020, the Bills only gave Allen a grand total of 33 carries for 107 yards in non-quarterback rushing support. In this game alone, he had 27 carries for 110 yards.

Usually, shrinking the game is a good strategy against the Chiefs, because you want to maximize their mistakes like the dropped passes, fumbles, and penalties. Those hurt more if the Chiefs are only getting like 8 drives in the game, which is basically what they had in this one if you ignore the kneeldown to get to halftime after a penalty.

But the Chiefs didn’t hurt themselves that badly in this game. Sure, Justin Watson could have made a better play on a third-down pass on the opening drive that led to a field goal. Mahomes missed a couple of throws in the end zone, settling for a second field goal. But after those couple of misses, the Chiefs were all business with 3 touchdowns.

Patrick Mahomes looked great in his first road playoff game as I expected he would. Travis Kelce ended his 7-game drought without a touchdown by scoring twice. Isiah Pacheco chipped in 97 yards. Even MVS looked competent with catches of 32 and 30 yards. In fact, the Chiefs had 8 plays that gained 20 yards, a huge edge over Buffalo (0) that allowed the Chiefs to score 27 points despite barely possessing the ball. The Bills held the ball for 37:03. This is already the third time in his career that Mahomes has led the Chiefs to at least 27 points in a playoff game despite not having the ball for at least 25 minutes. No other quarterback has done that more than once.

This game was an offensive gem for both teams until the Chiefs scored the go-ahead touchdown (Pacheco 4-yard run) with 14:20 left to take a 27-24 lead. Shortly after that, this one went off the rails.

To Kansas City’s credit, Steve Spagnuolo’s defense has been great at adjusting in the second half all year. They needed until the fourth quarter to get on track here as Buffalo’s only third-quarter drive was a 15-play, 75-yard touchdown march that took up 8:25. That’s always the concern when you have a team using clock and scoring touchdowns to limit Mahomes’ opportunities.

But after Allen had another designed run for 8 yards, the defense made their mark with a run stop that got James Cook 3 yards behind the line. Allen’s pass on 3rd-and-5 for Stefon Diggs was batted down at the line and it was a 3-and-out.

But instead of punting, the Bills ran a fake to Damar Hamlin of all people, and he only gained 2 yards, giving the Chiefs the ball at the Buffalo 32. Supposedly they caught the Chiefs with 10 players on the field and gave it a shot, but I hate that call. It’s just too risky in that spot.

Pacheco immediately ripped off a 29-yard run to the 3 and it looked like that fake punt was going to be the dagger and put the Bills down 10 points. But I had my most prescient moment of the weekend when I warned Saturday night that the Chiefs could try something excessively stupid with Mecole Hardman in this game:

Hardman already got a carry earlier in the game and fumbled in the red zone, which the Chiefs were lucky to recover. Sure enough, they gave him the ball again on a trick play and he fumbled it through the end zone, reaching too hard for a touchdown he’d never get. One of the worst rules in football was correctly applied after a Buffalo challenge, and the Chiefs coughed up their worst Obligatory Fumble of the season.

Just couldn’t help yourself, could you, Andy? No Kadarius Toney (inactive), but you had to make sure Hardman made his mark on this one. I thought that would doom the Chiefs, but again, the run defense made the difference by stopping Cook for a 4-yard loss. Allen threw a deep ball on 3rd-and-12 and Trent Sherfield, playing more for an inactive Gabe Davis, was unable to come down with it. He had a chance.

The Chiefs also had a chance with solid field position (own 43) to put this one away, and they even got a controversial defensive pass interference penalty to convert a third down when it looked like the contact was made before the ball was released. Thankfully, no one is going to care about that one as the Chiefs punted 3 plays later.

The Bills took over with 8:23 left and tried to slow-walk this one down the field. The drive was long, but it was almost constant short throws by Allen. By stuffing Cook for -7 yards on the last two series, I think the Chiefs spooked the Bills out of not running anymore. Right or wrong, the Bills put the ball in Allen’s hands on 10 straight plays on this drive.

It wasn’t going all that great. Allen fumbled on a 3rd-and-10 run and it was a miracle the Chiefs didn’t recover before the Bills did. Looking more and more like fumble bounce fortune was going to end the Chiefs’ season and repeat bid.

Allen converted a 4th-and-3. Cook eventually received 2 carries on the drive, but they went for no gain and 1 yard. I said this drive was full of short throws, but it started with a deep ball for Diggs, who did a horrible job of locating it.

Diggs had a season-low 24 yards on 11 targets against the Chiefs in Week 14. This time, he caught 3-of-8 targets for 21 yards, fumbling on the first snap of the game (Bills batted it out of bounds for a penalty), and making that egregious effort. His decline in the second half of a season where he only turned 30 needs to be studied, because this was significant.

Allen no doubt had love for the short throws in this one, but maybe he was doing it too much. According to Next Gen Stats, Allen’s 16 completions behind the line of scrimmage were tied for the most in any game since 2018.

Having said that, maybe he could have used a few more at the end of this drive? When these teams met in the divisional round 2 years ago, there were 31 points scored after the 2-minute warning. The game reached that point again, so what would we see this time?

Well, I think Allen tried to recreate one of his touchdowns to Davis from that game. The receiver (Shakir) was open in the end zone but they didn’t come close to connecting on a bit of a wasted snap that quickly brought up 3rd-and-9. On that one, I really don’t know what the plan was from Allen, but that too was incomplete and thrown away. There were no sacks in the game by either defense.

You had to go with kicker Tyler Bass from 44 yards out at that point. If you play this game long enough, no kicker is perfect in these situations. But Bass has not established himself yet as someone who you would call reliable in the clutch. After this miss, now you wonder if his career is going to tank like many before him have seen happen after they miss a legacy-defining field goal in the playoffs.

With 1:43 left, Bass’ kick was wide right, the worst fate you can have as a Buffalo kicker as it immediately recalls what Scott Norwood did at the end of Super Bowl 25, which is sadly still going to be the closest the Bills ever were to winning a Super Bowl.

The Chiefs just had to hand it to Pacheco twice for a first down, and that was the ball game. The Chiefs held on for a 27-24 win as no points were scored in the final 14:20 after such a stellar start for both offenses. Mahomes’ road playoff debut was a huge success.

The fake punt didn’t really ruin Buffalo’s game thanks to the Hardman fumble cancelling it out, but would things have gone better without that? Then again, the punter was injured and not doing well all night. Maybe the Bills are just cursed this time of year, and something will always go wrong, and it seems like special teams are often at the forefront of that (Norwood, Music City Miracle, not kicking short to burn time in the 13 seconds game, etc.).

Once is an accident, twice is a coincidence, but three times is a pattern. The Bills can beat the Chiefs by 35 points in the regular season next year and I cannot in good faith pick them to win the next playoff matchup.

I’m out on Buffalo if Mahomes and the Chiefs are involved.

Packers at 49ers: Did Love Text a Dick Pic or Incriminating Welfare Scam Question Before His Favreian Interception?

The future may be bright for the Packers again with Jordan Love at quarterback. But if Saturday night is any indication of things to come, the future may resemble a lot of the past three decades as well.

Jordan Love paid homage to Aaron Rodgers and Brett Favre in the same night by throwing a disastrous game-ending interception and losing to the 49ers in the NFC divisional round. The Packers are now 0-5 in the playoffs since 2012 against the 49ers, including an 0-3 record for coach Matt LaFleur.

Oh, what could have been this time. Like last week, the Packers won the coin toss and rightfully chose to receive. Take it to that front-running team early. But this time the Packers were stopped in the red zone and held to a field goal, which would become a theme of the night.

Brock Purdy had an interception dropped right off the bat and in between his completions to Deebo Samuel, who left with an injury after what looked like could have been a huge night for him.

But the Packers messed up the early second quarter drive when they tried to quickly run a quarterback sneak and Love was ruled short. I hate when teams rush the sneak. The best thing about the play is you can usually convert even when the defense knows it’s coming. Take your time, dig in, and get push. The Packers didn’t get enough push and that was a bad turnover on downs. I never saw any real convincing angle to show Love got it for sure to overturn the call.

George Kittle struck with a touchdown on Purdy’s best throw of the half, then the 49ers later had a 48-yard field goal blocked to end the half with a 7-6 lead. I honestly wasn’t sure which team should have felt better about that half. Both left chances on the field for more points and the Deebo injury was big.

The third quarter was some of the best action this postseason. Bo Melton caught a 19-yard touchdown, which was answered by a 39-yard touchdown run from Christian McCaffrey. After 27 straight quarters without a lead change this postseason, we finally had them pouring in. The Packers even had special teams revenge in mind for their horrific performance in the 2021 divisional round loss. They returned a kickoff 73 yards after CMC’s score, but they nearly lost it on a fumble. That set up a 20-yard touchdown drive, and Love threw to Aaron Jones for the 2-point conversion. Speaking of Jones, the Packers had been a bit of an outlier this postseason as the only real road team who was winning games and running the ball well. Jones had 108 yards on a tough run defense, though 53 of that did come on one play.

But it was enough to take a 21-14 lead into the fourth quarter. Could it have been better? Sure. Love threw behind his tight end and the pass was tipped for an interception, only his second pick in the second half of the season. That set the 49ers up at midfield as the final quarter approached.

But isn’t a 7-point lead usually enough to beat Kyle Shanahan’s 49ers? Yes and no. The stat they showed during the game was that Shanahan is 0-30 when entering the fourth quarter and trailing by 5+ points. He’s now 1-30. But that isn’t the same as saying Shanahan has never won a game when trailing by 5+ in the 4th quarter. In fact, the 49ers were down 24-17 late when they came back to force overtime against the 2021 Rams in Week 18. That win is how they made the playoffs that year.

In those playoffs, they were infamously down 10-3 in the fourth against the No. 1 seeded Packers in the divisional round when they blocked a punt for a game-tying touchdown with 4:41 left before winning 13-10 on a last-second field goal.

That means of the 3 times Shanahan has won a game when trailing by 7 points in the fourth quarter, 2-of-3 were in the playoffs against LaFleur and the Packers. Ouch.

Shanahan’s 0-for stat, which did not apply here and is still active, is that he is 0-38 when the 49ers trail by at least 8 points in the fourth quarter. We’ll see if that one comes up the rest of this season.

The season is continuing after a big finish from the team. Rookie kicker Jake Moody had that big game-deciding miss in Cleveland this year, but he looked good on a 52-yard kick on the first snap of the fourth quarter to make it 21-17.

The 49ers got the ball back and reached the Green Bay 40, but the drive stalled once Purdy tried throwing deep on 3rd-and-10 for Ray-Ray McCloud. That seemed like an insane decision, but that’s what happens when Deebo is out, and Brandon Aiyuk was oddly quiet.

Jones broke his 53-yard run, and that looked like it might be a dagger. But the Packers stalled again, and rookie kicker Anders Carlson was about to join the infamous list of kickers who choked in the playoffs. He’s had his struggles this year, missing 5 extra points, and this was going to be a 41-yard attempt, which shouldn’t have been so bad. I was worried about Moody for the 49ers, but Carlson should have been the one on my radar instead. Sure enough, he pulled the kick wide left with 6:18 left.

It wasn’t nearly as bad as what Gary Anderson did for the 1998 Vikings to ruin his perfect season and fail to give his team a late 10-point lead. But it would have been a big kick for Carlson’s team to go up 24-17 with overtime a possibility in the worst-case scenario. But now he left the door open for the 49ers to take the lead and break the hearts of Packers’ fans again.

I thought Purdy had an underwhelming game and his accuracy was spotty all night. But when it came to the drive of the game, he was money this time. He was 6-of-7 passing with a drop by Kittle. He found Aiyuk for a key 3rd-and-5 pickup. He scrambled for a good 9-yard gain in the red zone. On the next play, McCaffrey took the handoff for an easy 6-yard touchdown run, his second of the game. It almost looked like the Packers let  him score, and given the situation (3rd-and-1, 1:11 left), maybe that was the right call.

But I hated the idea of Carlson’s next kick being one that would determine if Green Bay still had a season left. He probably wanted no part of that kick either, but first the offense had to get him out there.

I attacked Favre and Rodgers for years for their performances in these spots. Favre was in the situation a ton, so he had a lot of game-winning drives, but boy did he have a lot more awful turnovers. Rodgers got better at this in the second half of his career, but he was still prone to taking sacks and not being aggressive enough.

We are still of course learning about Love but yikes, what an impression he left in the biggest moment of his career so far. He had 67 seconds and 3 timeouts, so that is plenty of time to get a field goal even if you had to get that sucker within 35 yards for this kicker to make it.

It looked a little like pulling teeth to get that initial first down, but sometimes that is the hardest one to get. But after using the first timeout with 52 seconds left, I never imagined Love would make such a reckless, awful throw on 1st-and-10. I don’t know what he thought was going to happen, but Dre Greenlaw was there for another pick. Instead of going down and ending the game, Greenlaw was relentless in trying to return the ball. Did he tell his cash-strapped friends to bet $$$$$ on 49ers -9.5 or something? Jesus Christ, get down, man.

The 49ers had separate drives with a 53-yard run and a 38-yard completion and scored no points on either drive. They had a 41-yard field goal to take a 7-point lead and missed it. They were maybe 30 yards away from another game-tying field goal attempt and threw a horrific pick that only would have looked more like Favre if Love was wearing Crocs and texting how to defraud the Mississippi Welfare Fund.

It was a classic Green Bay playoff loss, and it’s good to know the new era is going to share a lot in common with the past two. Better find a Reggie White or Charles Woodson again. Someone who will put down Purdy or hold onto his interception in the big moment.

But hats off to the 49ers too. This was the kind of game I questioned if they could win since they had no game-winning drives all season and rarely were tested this way. They showed they can overcome a slow start and some adversity like the Deebo injury. It should serve them well the rest of the postseason.

Buccaneers at Lions: The Baker-Goff Sunday Matinee We Deserved

Given the lack of history between these teams, I didn’t know what to write to fill up their game preview, so I spent about 1,100 words on showing some appreciation for Jared Goff and Baker Mayfield. They’re both No. 1 picks who have been accused of being play-action merchants and products of Sean McVay and Kevin Stefanski, but both have now won playoff games with different teams, and not anyone can end long playoff droughts for the f’n Cleveland Browns and Detroit Lions.

So, this may not have been your typical divisional round matchup, but the quarterbacks and teams put on a good show in a competitive 31-23 game that got increasingly higher scoring as the talent took over.

Early on, the defenses were making it tough to earn anything. Mayfield had a pass deflected off Mike Evans’ hands that was intercepted on a third-and-long, and the Bucs should have picked off Jared Goff in the end zone on that drive, but he got away with it (drop by Jamel Dean) and the Lions got a field goal out of it.

But that was what made it a good game as the defenses were playing well and making the offenses really earn every first down and point. The Bucs had the upper hand in running the ball early, which was surprising given they were the 32nd-ranked run game again this year, but neither team ran the ball well at all in Week 6. Eventually, the Lions did figure things out and Jahmyr Gibbs popped a 31-yard touchdown run to start the fourth quarter that broke a 17-17 tie and was in effect the game-winning touchdown. Gibbs finished with 74 rushing yards, and tight end Sam LaPorta had 9 catches for 65 yards, so it was another successful outing for the rookie class of the Lions.

Tampa hit the upright on a 50-yard field goal late in the first half, but it did rebound by getting the ball back and Mayfield threw a touchdown to Cade Otton, another young tight end who played well and tied the game at 10 at halftime.

I thought Mayfield played quite well, but there were some troubling mistakes that you’re not sure if it was his fault for missing something pre-snap or if it was a coaching mistake. But there is no reason for Aidan Hutchinson to come in unblocked off the edge on multiple occasions, including a 3rd-and-4 sack to start the third quarter that knocked the Bucs out of field goal range. Hell, the kicker (Chase McLaughlin) probably would have missed again anyway. But that was a mistake that happened a few times in this game.

Speaking of mistakes, I thought the Lions were hosed on a chop block to wipe out a 25-yard gain on 3rd-and-10 deep in their own in the third quarter. It looked like David Montgomery went to block the defender before his lineman did, so that call was pretty weak to me. But the Lions ended up getting the ball back and scored a go-ahead touchdown on a 4th-and-1 run by Craig Reynolds after some passes were unsuccessful by Goff. Just pound it in, Detroit.

But I have my complaints with Dan Campbell too as I felt he was asleep at the wheel when he didn’t challenge if Baker was down on a sack before he threw a ball away to almost end the quarter. It looked like his calf was down and that would have made it a lot tougher on the Bucs to convert. Instead, they threw a screen on 3rd-and-10 and Rachaad White scored a 12-yard touchdown on a great call to tie the game.

Gibbs was absolutely dominant on the game-winning drive with 57 of the 75 yards. The Bucs went 3-and-out, and it looked like the Lions put it away with an 89-yard touchdown drive where Amon-Ra St. Brown was the star this time. He converted a 3rd-and-15 with a strong YAC effort to just get over the line, then finished the drive with a 9-yard touchdown to make it 31-17 with 6:22 left.

St. Brown had his ninth straight game with at least 6 catches and 70 yards. Only Marvin Harrison (2001-02 Colts) and Travis Kelce (2020-21 Chiefs) have done that for 9 straight games in their careers.

But Mayfield kept the game alive and led a great drive with a 4th-and-14 conversion to Evans, who also caught a 16-yard touchdown with 4:37 left to make it 31-23. The Bucs went for 2, and Evans is usually excellent at acting and embellishing to draw DPI flags, but he didn’t do it well here and there was no call despite the defensive back not playing the ball that well. The Bucs still trailed 31-23.

This decision always gets defended as the “analytics play” and NBC’s Cris Collinsworth went through the explanation of it again. I get it. I don’t mind it. I probably would have gone for it too in this game with the way it was going.

But I just hate the way people hammer on this like it’s some amazing cheat code to win games or that it’s always the right, obvious call.

Because it’s not.

I ranted about this on Twitter already, but first, we have to stop pretending that all teams down 14 in the fourth quarter are trying to win in regulation when we know most of them are thinking of tying the game. Todd Bowles does not strike me as the kind of coach who would go for the go-ahead 2 if his team scored its second touchdown with 2:00 or 1:05 left in the game either. He’d think he was playing for overtime.

Also, this is the playoffs and the rules have changed for overtime where both teams are guaranteed possession now. So, would overtime really be that bad of an outcome now when it can no longer end after a touchdown drive like in the past?

The only other thing I’ll say is it never seems to be acknowledged just how aggressive you can make the other team when you do this. Don’t you think Detroit might approach the following drive a little differently if it was up 6 points instead of 7 or 8 points? If you’re up 8, you can be a little safer with that cushion. Same way a team approaches things differently if it was down 1 point instead of in a tied game. If you do this move and get it right on the first touchdown, you’re giving the opponent two chances to be more aggressive. Detroit is more aggressive than most to begin with, but encouraging the Lions to be extra aggressive isn’t the smartest move in my view.

  • Since 2021, 48 NFL teams have scored a touchdown in the fourth quarter while down exactly 14 points with a point after decision to make.
  • 34 teams kicked the extra point, and those teams were 8-25-1 (.250) in the game.
  • 14 teams went for the 2-point conversion, 9-of-14 (64.3%) were successful, and they were 2-12 (.143) in the game.
  • The average extra point kick came with 8:48 left to play.
  • The average 2-point conversion came with 5:47 left to play, so there is a time element to consider as this strategy should be attempted with less time left in the game.

If you ask me, 2-12 when your only wins are the most improbable comeback of the 2023 season (Tennessee in Miami) and a game where the Saints choked on a field goal in Green Bay after having nearly 3:00 to set it up are not a ringing endorsement here. Tua had almost 2 full minutes in that Miami loss too just to get the No. 1 offense in position for a winning field goal. Again, you can’t control the clock like you think you can.

Anyways, it ended up being a bit moot. The Lions almost were too good on offense as they started the drive with 3 consecutive first downs: 15-yard pass, 11-yard run, and a penalty that wiped out a sack. But the Lions didn’t gain another first down and the Bucs got the ball back with 1:59 and 1 timeout left at their own 10 in a 31-23 game.

Baker has done this before, but the Lions aren’t the Raiders in a low-stakes Thursday night game. Just two plays into the drive, he forced a pass over the middle and Derrick Barnes made the pick of his life to send the Lions to the NFC Championship Game. Fron 1 playoff win during 1958-2022 to 2 playoff wins in January 2024. Crazy stuff.

Speaking of crazy, the Bucs still had their final timeout left after the pick. The Lions did them a favor by taking a knee quickly on second down, so after Goff took a knee on third down with 37 seconds left to bring up fourth down, why in the hell would Bowles not call his last timeout with over 30 seconds left?

The ball was at the Tampa 31. It would have been a 49-yard field goal attempt for a so-so kicker. He could have missed or it could have even been blocked, giving Tampa the ball back with over 25 seconds in a one-possession game. To just let the game end was insane, and the NBC broadcast didn’t even acknowledge this happened.

Asked after the game, Bowles tried saying they’d have 12 seconds after the field goal. Not a chance. They likely have over 30 seconds left, which even in an 11-point game would still be a chance even if it’d require one of the craziest comebacks ever. But even if it was 12 seconds, you don’t just give up on the game like that. If this weekend showed anything, you don’t trust a kicker from 49 yards away to make the kick.

The better team, better coach, and better quarterback won in the end. Now let’s see what the Lions have left for a road trip as a big underdog. Watching them win as a home favorite in back-to-back weeks in the playoffs was cool, but they have a much tougher test coming up in San Francisco.

Texans at Ravens: They Had Me the First Half, I’m Not Gonna Lie

Ending with the game that started the weekend, Houston’s 34-10 loss in Baltimore was a sobering reminder of just how hard it is for a rookie quarterback to succeed in the NFL’s postseason against a great defense, especially on the road.

Sure, C.J. Stroud did well at home against Cleveland last week, but the Browns did not travel well defensively this year. Baltimore has been legitimate all year on defense, and it made some history in this game by being able to hold the Texans to just 3 offensive points. The only Houston touchdown was a punt return.

The Texans set a record for worst margin of defeat (24 points) in NFL history for a team that had no turnovers and no sacks in a game.

In fact, the Texans are the first NFL team since 1940 (regular season or postseason) to lose by more than 10 points in a game where they had no offensive touchdowns, no sacks, and no turnovers.

This is a near-impossible combo of stats to pull off in a game, and the Texans only had one missed field goal and one failed fourth down too. The list of teams to have no sacks and no turnovers and only score 10 points (or fewer) is small at just 24 teams in the Super Bowl era. One of those teams was the 2023 Chargers in their 6-0 win over the Patriots this year.

You would have figured Stroud threw a pick parade or took a handful of sacks like he had in Week 1 when these teams played. But it was nothing like that. Just stopped them cold time and time again. Sure, they dropped a pick in this game, but they didn’t even need a turnover to keep them out of the end zone. They shut down the running game completely as Devin Singletary had 9 carries for 22 yards.

But for a half, the Texans were hanging in there with Baltimore. I don’t believe this is a case of Baltimore’s past playoff failures getting in their heads. I think it was more like “we blew off Week 18, we had a bye week, and we’re not as sharp as we need to be” for about a half.

But DeMeco Ryans went against his script and was very aggressive with blitzes, and it is hard to deny it worked for a half. On six drives, they forced the Ravens into a 3-and-out 4 times, gave up a 53-yard field goal to start the game, and only allowed one 76-yard touchdown drive. Lamar Jackson was sacked 3 times in a half that saw him net just 23 passing yards. His damage was on the ground where he had 50 yards.

If the Texans didn’t miss a 47-yard field goal with 32 seconds left in the half, they likely go to the locker room with a 13-10 lead. Not bad for a team with an offense that couldn’t find the end zone, and one that racked up 8 penalties for 50 yards as pre-snap penalties killed the Texans early in this game. That’s a good sign of an inexperienced team that was struggling to communicate on the road.

But the second half was a runaway by the Ravens, who put together 3 straight touchdown drives while the Texans floundered. Just like that, it was 31-10 with 5:00 left and the rest of the game was a formality.

The first drive of the half for each team set the tone for the rest of the game. The Ravens adjusted to Houston’s blitzing, and after Jackson avoided a red-zone interception that was dropped, he took off on a 15-yard quarterback draw for a touchdown. While Stroud had a few impressive throws in the first half, Houston played too scared with him on early downs with ineffective runs and short throws. A screen pass lost 5 yards and short-circuited Houston’s drive in Baltimore territory. They punted and never threatened the rest of the game.

Isaiah Likely caught a 15-yard touchdown, then Jackson ran for another 8-yard score, giving him 2 by air, 2 by ground to tie a playoff record. It was the first time the Ravens scored more than 20 points in a playoff game under him.

The future is bright for Houston, but that team just wasn’t ready to win a game like this.

The Baltimore offense from the second half will need a similar performance against the Chiefs, who look prepared this postseason for these big games. Both teams will provide each other’s biggest challenge this season.

Next week: I think we are getting the best possible championship game matchups this season could produce. Cowboys and Eagles imploded, and we already saw the 49ers crush them. Give Detroit as an underdog a shot. You know they’ll at least be aggressive.

As for the AFC, is there any team in the league that you’d trust more to knock off the No. 1 defense on the road than the Chiefs? If the Ravens want this to go down as a historic defense and team, they must take out Mahomes and the champs. It’s a perfect storyline as this was supposed to be the new AFC rivalry years ago, then Buffalo and Cincinnati substituted instead since the Ravens couldn’t win in the postseason or keep their QB healthy through December. Now we get to see it with the Super Bowl on the line.

Can’t wait for that one and it’s on first.

NFL Stat Oddity: 2023 Wild Card Weekend

~ Scott ~ 2 Comments

And that’s why we don’t call it Super Wild Card weekend, because not much was super about that 3-day trek of games. Sure, we saw dazzling playoff debuts for C.J. Stroud and Jordan Love, the Detroit Lions finally won a playoff game for the first time since 1991, and the fraud department was busy sending home teams who didn’t stand a chance of going the distance (Dolphins, Steelers, Eagles), or it exposed the defenses who beefed up their stats against the weakest opponents (Cowboys and Browns) and folded when it mattered most.

On those fronts, it was a strong week of action. But if you told me every home team would win except for Dallas, the team that won 16 games in a row at home and usually in dominant fashion, I might not have believed you.

I definitely wouldn’t have believed you if you said there wouldn’t be a single lead change in any game after the 12:00 mark in the second quarter of Browns-Texans on Saturday.

But that happened too. The other 5 games were all wire-to-wire wins, putting this postseason on pace for some history in that department if teams don’t start showing up with better efforts.

I’m still getting over the flu, but a good night of sleep is one hell of a dose of self-medication for that. I feel good enough to share some thoughts on these 6 games before I go back for more sleep and to start preparing data, previews, and picks for the divisional round, my favorite weekend of the NFL year.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Browns at Texans: When the Young Kid Puts Down Old Yeller

We might look back one day and laugh at the time Joe Flacco, days before his 39th birthday, was a road favorite over C.J. Stroud in a playoff game. But as someone who picked Cleveland to win a tight one, I’m using this game as a good lesson on what to take away from a recent meeting before a playoff rematch.

The season-long trends mattered more than the recent trends where Flacco was dealing (albeit with a high interception rate), and Stroud was kind of mediocre down the stretch outside of a great job in Indianapolis to get into the playoffs.

But Houston’s ability to scheme receivers open, especially at home, combined with Stroud’s already advanced skills at throwing off platform and giving his guys chances proved to overwhelm a Cleveland defense that I feared was a paper tiger all along. In the playoffs, you aren’t facing Joe Burrow on a bad calf, or a slumping Ryan Tannehill, or getting Matt Canada fired again in Pittsburgh, or feasting on Arizona rookie Clayton Tune.

There was just something fishy about a defense that allowed at least 22 points in every road game this year, and you can’t blame that all on their league-leading 37 turnovers as that has been a problem all year for Cleveland. Blame the offense on the Pittsburgh loss for Deshaun Watson’s 2 turnovers getting returned for touchdowns, sure, but that was not the norm for them.  

Turnovers ended up being a story in this game, but Houston was already up 24-14 in the third quarter before Flacco had his back-to-back pick-sixes that crushed any hope left for Cleveland. But things were already looking bad before that as Myles Garrett contributed more offsides penalties than any impact plays on defense.

Both offenses were hitting plays early as this one was on pace for over 1,000 total yards. But after Kareem Hunt scored his second touchdown to give the Browns a 14-10 lead, the Texans answered back with a 1-play drive that saw backup tight end Brevin Jordan leak open for a 76-yard touchdown. Houston led 17-0 with 12:00 left in the second quarter and we literally never saw another lead change the rest of wild card weekend.

The Browns were stopped on 3 straight drives to end the half as pressure got to Flacco. When these teams met in Week 16 and Cleveland won easily, there were multiple lessons we should have taken away from that game and applied to this one:

  • Obviously, having Stroud back at quarterback was huge, but Houston also didn’t have top pass rushers Will Anderson and Jonathan Greenard in Week 16. They were back and Anderson had 1-of-4 sacks of Flacco.
  • Pressure got to Flacco on that fateful first pick-six, and he tried to throw the ball away, only to have it returned 82 yards for a touchdown by Steven Nelson.
  • Cleveland’s lack of a running game in Week 16 was a problem again as they only produced 17 carries for 43 yards this time. Hunt was stuffed on a key 3rd-and-1 run, which led to Flacco’s next pick-six on a 4th-and-2. If the running game is adequate, he’s never throwing in that desperate situation and blowing the game open at 38-14.
  • Flacco overcame his running game woes in Week 16 with huge plays to Amari Cooper, who had 265 yards. But he injured his heel that game and we didn’t know how he’d play in his return game. He finished with 59 yards and was clearly not 100%, and that didn’t help Cleveland’s cause.

Cooper’s decline of 206 receiving yards is the 5th-largest drop in a playoff rematch in NFL history by a receiver.

Flacco started the game well, but the cumulative pressure got to him, and the double whammy of picks was a game destroyer, making the fourth quarter pretty forgettable as Houston won 45-14.

But you did see the value in this game of having a young quarterback with mobility as Stroud could evade pressure and feather the ball to his receivers with accuracy. The barely mobile Flacco tried to throw one away and it ended up going back the other way for a game-changing touchdown.

I still stand by the data that says there’s no correlation between two team’s turnover margins and what their turnover margin will be in a playoff matchup against each other. Even at extreme levels like the gap in this game, the turnover-prone team usually beats the turnover-averse team.

But there will be no improbable Flacco Super Bowl run this year, and the Cleveland defense is in fact not even close to being a legendary unit. The history made here is that Stroud only needed a half to tie the record for touchdown passes by a rookie in a playoff game with 3.

Dolphins at Chiefs: Still Wish It Was Colder?

My favorite bet for the entire week was Dolphins under 19.5 points. When they usually can’t get to 20 points on the road against good teams in fair weather, how were they going to do it in the 4th-coldest game in NFL history at minus-4 degrees at kickoff?

One 53-yard touchdown pass to Tyreek Hill was all the Miami offense had to muster. The Chiefs were excellent on defense as that was the only 20-yard play they allowed in the game.

When Mike McDaniel thought a 22-20 win over Dallas was enough for his players to tell the media to (with all due respect) “fvck off” about his team’s record against winning teams, that’s what my reaction was all year long to people who thought this team was a serious Super Bowl contender and not just a paper tiger.

McDaniel has now lost 10 straight road games to playoff teams.

All I can add on this loss is that it’s the kind of performance that should make Miami hold off on giving Tua Tagovailoa a record-setting contract extension, because you know that’s what his agent will be seeking as the next quarterback due to get paid. I’m not saying they have to part ways, but I’d be very careful about making that deal happen. He just doesn’t get the job done in games like this, and guess what, Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes don’t look like they’re going anywhere in the AFC anytime soon. Same with Lamar Jackson, and oh yeah, now you have to think about C.J. Stroud in Houston too.

Tua’s QBR of 15.8 made him the only quarterback under 40.0 this week.

But enough about Miami. I want to talk about this Kansas City performance the rest of the way. I thought Patrick Mahomes played very well, and I would not have guessed he’d have that kind of night based on how bad the first 2 snaps looked. But one big 3rd-and-10 conversion to Travis Kelce, who held on that time, and the Chiefs were off to a strong start. Mahomes had a few big scrambles too, and he even cracked his helmet on the frozen night and did not miss a play.

Mahomes did not take any sacks, and the only turnover was an obligatory fumble late in the game by CEH with the game out of reach for Miami. I thought Mahomes had a good read of the blitz from Miami, and he threw the ball away when he had to. The only drawback was the red-zone performance where the Chiefs settled for 4 field goals, looking similar to Week 17 when they kicked 6 field goals against the Bengals. That can catch up with you against a better team than Miami like they’ll play going forward. It also helped that the Dolphins were so injured on defense, which is why I think they just kept blitzing Mahomes, which is usually a no-no.

Throwing some deep balls on third downs to Mecole Hardman, who has the worst ball-tracking skills ever, is another dangerous tactic I don’t want to see the Chiefs continue this postseason against better teams. But they had no problem beating Miami without playing their best.

Now we get a real road game for this team and against a Buffalo team that arguably plays them better than anyone. It could be another classic.

Just glad we don’t have to entertain the Dolphins as contenders anymore this season.

Packers at Cowboys: Doomsday in Dallas Used to Mean Something Different

My preseason Super Bowl pick was Dallas going on a revenge tour, beating the 49ers in San Francisco in the title game, and ultimately losing to the Ravens in the Super Bowl. Well, Baltimore fans better get nervous, because I literally never pick the correct Super Bowl winner, and now my loser is gone after a shocking first-round exit at home in a 48-32 loss.

In Mike McCarthy’s best shot yet to become the first coach to win a Super Bowl with multiple teams, he instead became the first coach to lose to a No. 7 seed. We know the Packers always gave the Cowboys fits during Aaron Rodgers’ tenure, but we might have to expect more years of misery at the hands of Jordan Love after this game.

Right from his first pass on the opening drive, Love came out smoking. In fact, Green Bay’s decision to receive after winning the toss was one of the best coaching decisions all weekend. You need to set the tone when you play a front-running team that is used to leading like Dallas. All the pressure was on Dallas to win this game as the No. 2 seed, and Green Bay was immediately able to take a lead and build that pressure after consuming half the quarter.

Love was masterful in his first playoff start on the road, completing 16-of-21 passes for 272 yards and 3 touchdowns. He had no sacks or turnovers, and his favorite receiver was the open one. Jayden Reed led the team in receiving categories this year, but he had no catches in this game. Christian Watson was the expected No. 1 coming into the season, but he is always injured. He returned this weekend and had only a 9-yard catch against a defense he broke out against in 2022 when he scored 3 touchdowns. It was Romeo Doubs with the dominant game as he had 151 yards and a touchdown. Rookie tight end Luke Musgrave also broke wide open for a 38-yard touchdown as Matt LaFleur was having a great time roasting his predecessor.

I’ve said for 20 years since those pesky 2001-04 Patriots teams won 3 Super Bowls that it can be really advantageous to have a group of talented receivers with no clear No. 1 receiver. That was when the Patriots played dink-and-dunk passing with Troy Brown, David Givens, David Patten, and Deion Branch. Mix in your backs and tight ends, and defenses couldn’t go into games on a weekly basis and figure out who to focus on or draw more attention to with double teams. Technically, it was Troy Brown early on in that run and Deion Branch later, but any of them could get open and do something after the catch on any given play.

The 2023 Packers are kind of enjoying that advantage right now with this young group of receivers, including Doubs, Watson, Reed, and Dontayvion Wicks. Throw in a veteran back and Dallas killer like Aaron Jones (118 yards and 3 touchdowns), and the Packers had a variety of ways to make Dallas look silly.

Similar to the Browns, the Cowboys had some paper tiger warnings on defense since they padded their stats against awful offenses like the Jets, Panthers, Patriots, and those sack merchant lines for the Giants and Commanders (twice each). You saw Brock Purdy shred them in San Francisco. You saw Jalen Hurts at least put up one great game against them when the Eagles were playing better earlier in the year. Even Geno Smith went into Dallas and put on a passing clinic and 35 points, but that usually doesn’t happen to Dallas in Dallas.

But the Cowboys were rough on defense, and they were not prepared for a team with a quarterback who came in red hot like Love. Since the Dallas offense is usually so efficient, the Cowboys also faced the fewest drives of any defense this year, so their per-drive numbers were not elite this season.

But I’m not sure anyone imagined a 48-32 game in favor of the Packers. Worse, it was 27-0 at one point after maybe the worst start to a game in Dak Prescott’s career. You knew it was going to be a long day when he had 0 passing yards in the first quarter for the first time in his career. From the opening drive you could see he was just a little off with CeeDee Lamb after they were so good down the stretch this year. Then Jaire Alexander beat Brandin Cooks to an interception, and the Packers only needed to go 19 yards to make it 14-0.

The Cowboys continued to stubbornly stick with the run on early downs, and Prescott was not getting into a rhythm and converting enough third downs. Down 20-0 at the 2-minute warning, that’s when disaster struck as Dak did not see Darnell Savage on a pick-six that was returned 64 yards to put the Packers up 27-0.

Dallas was fortunate to get a touchdown on the final play of the half after it clearly looked live that there was a false start or something funky pre-snap. But nothing was called, and Jake Ferugson caught the first of what would be three touchdowns on the day.

But the Packers are not the Chargers. They weren’t going to blow a 27-0 lead. This might have been a little more interesting had Dallas pulled off a double touchdown score, but the Cowboys were held to a field goal to start the third quarter, making it 27-10.

Fox’s Greg Olsen put it perfectly. A comeback like this isn’t possible if your defense can’t get stops. I’ve written about this several times now since Super Bowl 51, including this 2018 post about Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady. It’s not like Brady is the only quarterback who could make a 25-point comeback in a playoff game. He just may be the only one who is lucky enough to have his defense hold a juggernaut offense with the MVP at quarterback to no more points the rest of the way and to even force a short field on a fumble.

I’m not deflecting the blame from Dak in this game. He blew it. But it’s also true that Dallas scored 32 points over its final 7 drives, and we might have had a game here if the Dallas defense didn’t allow 3 straight Green Bay touchdown drives to start the second half.

That blown coverage on Musgrave made it 41-16 with 16:27 left in the game, basically asking for Dallas to make the greatest comeback in history at that point. After turning it over on downs, the Cowboys watched the Packers convert a 4th-and-2 for another touchdown to make it 48-16 with 10:23 left. Goodnight, Irene. They couldn’t even get the little 4th-down stop with minimal pressure on both teams at the moment.

But I must say, for being down 32 with just over 10 minutes left, the Cowboys came closer to 8+8+8+8 then you’d ever want to see as the leading team. They didn’t even recover an onside kick. They just used their timeouts, scored quickly, and got the pair of 3-and-outs on defense they needed earlier in the game.

This was an incredible one-handed catch from CeeDee Lamb in the end zone away from Dallas going for 2 to make it 48-40 with just over a minute left. Sure, they’d need to then recover an onside kick and score another touchdown with a 4th straight 2-point conversion just to force overtime, but getting to 48-40 with an onside chance after it was 48-16 not that long ago? That would have been an impressive rally attempt.

But the game should have never gotten that out of hand in the first place, and that is why I wouldn’t be surprised if McCarthy gets the axe for this game. It’s also going to be hard to ever trust Dak in a big game after he had his best season, they were healthy for this game, and he and the offense just laid a turd for the first half.

Green Bay getting hot at the right time behind a quarterback playing outstanding ball is good stuff. We don’t see that too often anymore in the NFL playoffs, so we’ll see if he can slay the San Francisco dragon that Aaron Rodgers never could. He already got past the Dallas dragon that tripped up Brett Favre in the 90s.

But these Cowboys are not the Cowboys of the 90s. The fact that Jerry Jones keeps hanging onto those glory hole days and thinking every year is going to end up like that again is why he must annually be so disappointed when his team flops in the playoffs.

But I have to say, even by Jerry’s standards, this flop was the worst one yet, because things were breaking for them this year.

Rams at Lions: Puka Gets a Tug and No Happy Ending

Of all the games this week that should have been high scoring and come down to the final drive, this was the one to pick. In the end, we got an exciting first half with 38 points and both quarterbacks dealing, and then we got 3 field goals and still not a single lead change after halftime as Detroit held on for the 24-23 win.

Yeah, it’s awesome that the Lions finally won a playoff game. But excuse me for being a little bummed out that this game didn’t have more touchdowns or a better dramatic finish. This was the matchup for it with these underwhelming defenses, and they lived up to it early with all the scoring drives. Detroit scored 3 straight touchdowns to begin the game.

I thought Matthew Stafford played very well through the pain of a cut on his hand that left him bloody. He may have saved the game on the final play of the first quarter by converting a 3rd-and-16 with the Lions already up 14-3 and humming along. But some of the red-zone struggles and difficulty of hooking up with Cooper Kupp proved fatal to the Rams in this one. It also didn’t help that Kyren Williams kept leaving for health reasons as the league’s leader in rushing yards per game only put up 61 yards in Detroit. Stafford must have really felt at home, trying to carry a team with minimal rushing support and a defense that was getting shredded.

But by the end of the night, the Lions barely rushed for more yards than the Rams (82 to 68). Both offenses were 3-for-9 on third down. I thought fourth down might play a bigger role in this game with Dan Campbell being much more aggressive than conservative Sean McVay, but both teams were 1-for-1 on fourth downs.

The Rams can probably kick themselves for outgaining the Lions by 91 yards in a game with zero turnovers and still losing 24-23. But that’s what happens you go 0-for-3 in the red zone at scoring touchdowns and kick 3 field goals under 30 yards.

Were any of the field goals the wrong call by McVay? No, they were all 4th and 6 or longer. They were the right decisions at the moment. My beef with McVay in this game is a common one I’ve had for him going back several years now: He blew his timeout management in the second half again.

Stafford took a sack 3 snaps into the third quarter and McVay wasted a timeout on a 3rd-and-11. Save that shit and take the 5-yard delay penalty. The Rams ended up throwing an incomplete pass and punted. He did it again in the fourth quarter before a 3rd-and-8 deep in his own end, down 24-20. More defensible than the first one, I still don’t think it is worth it most of the time in that situation. The Rams ended up converting by a screen pass to Puka Nacua, who was awesome.

You know Nacua is a real one when he can make Kupp look like a secondary receiver in this offense. Puka was outstanding in his playoff debut with 9 catches for 181 yards and a 50-yard touchdown.

Unfortunately, Nacua was also involved in the play of the game that will be remembered most by Rams fans. On 3rd-and-14 at the Detroit 44 with 4:20 left, the Rams were in a tough spot. A conversion is hard there, but at least they could get some yards and try a reasonable go-ahead field goal. Stafford went for the big play to Nacua, and his jersey was grabbed from behind and the pass fell incomplete. Receivers usually get that call but there was no flag this time.

The Rams really had no choice but to punt from their 44, and they were down to just 2 clock stoppages because of the piss-poor clock management earlier. The Lions are good in these situations because they are aggressive under Campbell, and they were able to run out the clock after 2 first downs on pass plays. Amon-Ra St. Brown had a great playoff debut too and got over 100 yards on the night with his 11-yard catch to seal the game.

Goff had a couple of scary plays in this game that serve as reminders for why you don’t like to trust him in big games. But overall, he played well, and the Lions did enough to survive this one. Now they get to host the Buccaneers with a shot at the NFC Championship Game very much in play as they are a home favorite this week.

From no playoff wins in 31 seasons to possibly an NFC Championship Game appearance or more? Crazy stuff for Detroit.

Steelers at Bills: The Standard in Postseason Scoring

The downside to the Steelers making the playoffs has become the quick exit that almost feels inevitable. Pittsburgh lost its fifth playoff game in a row, meaning Mike Tomlin has not won any playoff games in the last 7 seasons (2017-23).

This is also the fifth time under Tomlin that the Steelers allowed at least 31 points in a playoff game while forcing no takeaways. The only team with that many playoff games since the 1970 merger is the Denver franchise, which has done this 6 times. But the Steelers have done it 5 times since 2007.

  • Pittsburgh is the first team in NFL history to allow at least 31 points in 5 straight playoff games.
  • Pittsburgh has allowed 202 points in its last 5 playoff games, the most in any 5-game span in playoff history, surpassing a record they already held with 187 points in 2016-21.
  • Pittsburgh has scored at least 16 points in 29 straight playoff games, extending its NFL record in that area but that’s not making up for the recent blowouts.
  • Pittsburgh is the only NFL team with an active 5-game losing streak in the playoffs where it failed to cover the spread in each game.

Pittsburgh’s best hope in this game was for it to be played during whiteout conditions with heavy snow and wind, increasing the likelihood of randomness like fumbles. But after watching it play out at its rescheduled time on Monday in fairer cold conditions, I’m not so sure Buffalo still doesn’t win comfortably.

Not when Josh Allen had 1 fe”r rushing yard than the 75 yards the duo of Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren combined for. The Steelers were supposed to be the more physical team that leaned on their backs, but James Cook outrushed them too with 79 yards on 18 carries for Buffalo. Most of Allen’s damage was on his 52-yard touchdown run, which featured some really poor tackling from the Steelers, a common theme on the day.

Without T.J. Watt available, the Steelers struggled to force any splash plays against the Bills, who did not even flirt with a turnover. No real dangerous throws from Allen, and they had no fumbles to lose. Since 2017, the Steelers are now 2-13-1 when Watt plays fewer than 50% of the snaps in a game.

It is hard to decide which side of the ball hurt the Steelers more in this one. The offense came out playing scared and taking almost no deep shots to the wide receivers. Pittsburgh’s only 20-yard play in the game was a 33-yard gain by tight end Pat Freiermuth, who fumbled at the end of the play and was fortunate it was ruled to go out of bounds because it sure looked like Buffalo recovered it in bounds.

George Pickens was less fortunate on a fumble that set up Allen for a 29-yard touchdown drive that took one play as he found Dalton Kincaid wide open. When it looked like the Steelers were going to cut the 14-0 lead in half, Mason Rudolph made his worst throw in the red zone to waste Pittsburgh’s longest drive (88 yards) with an interception. Allen made his big touchdown run from there to build a 21-0 lead, a big early hole being the common lead in every Pittsburgh playoff loss during this streak.

A blocked field goal saved this from total blowout territory as that led to a 33-yard touchdown drive before the half ended. But even that sequence showed just how poorly prepared the Steelers are for these big games. The Buffalo punter was injured on the blocked field goal. Instead of using his timeouts to try to make Buffalo punt in the last minute of the half, Tomlin sat on his timeouts and only called one on 2nd-and-17 with 2 seconds left? What good does that do? Allen took a knee to end it. After a first-down sack, the Steelers should have been using those 3 timeouts to get a punt block ready. Just poorly managed all around.

After Rudolph threw his second touchdown of the game to Calvin Austin to make it 24-17 in the fourth quarter, this got a little interesting. But the Bills easily drove for quality play after quality play on a 70-yard drive that ended in another touchdown after awful tackling from Minkah Fitzpatrick and company led to Shakir scoring from 17 yards out to make it 31-17 with 6:27 left.

That’s game. A missed 27-yard field goal by the Bills after the Steelers turned it over on downs is the only reason we aren’t talking up 34 points as the new piss-poor scoring standard for this defense in the postseason.

I mentioned at the beginning that Tomlin hasn’t won a playoff game since the 2016 season. If he returns next season for Year 8 of his playoff win drought, it’ll only be the fourth time a team has done that with a coach in the Super Bowl era. Jim Mora (Saints) and Marvin Lewis (Bengals) infamously never won a playoff game in their career. Don Shula’s 8-year drought in Miami (1974-81) led to a Super Bowl loss in 1982, but that was a different league back then. You didn’t have 7 teams making the playoffs in each conference, and he had multiple seasons where he finished 10-4 and didn’t even make the tournament.

The Steelers shouldn’t have been expected to win this game, especially without Watt, but at what point does hanging onto a streak of non-losing seasons prevent the team from ever getting back to real Super Bowl contention? This is purgatory. There’s no high draft pick and quarterback fix to come out of this season, and it’s not like the effort was all that respectable here. Hell, even Miami lost 34-31 and covered the spread with Skylar Thompson at quarterback in Buffalo in the wild card round last year. They at least forced turnovers.

SOS is supposed to be a distress call for help, but when it comes to the Steelers, it’s like the organization is content with the same old shit.

Eagles at Buccaneers: My Apologies to the 1986 Jets and 2022 Vikings

I just want to start by saying I apologize to the 2022 Vikings for comparing the 2023 Eagles when they were 10-1 to your team. The Vikings actually finished with 13 wins and put up a fight in their home playoff loss to the Giants, which came down to the final drive.

I also have to apologize for comparing the Eagles to the 1986 Jets, the only other team to start 10-1 and not get to 12 wins. The Jets rebounded in time for the playoffs to beat the Chiefs in the wild card round and gave a superior Cleveland team hell in the divisional round in a double overtime loss.

After scoring a record number of points (35) for a Super Bowl loser last year, the Eagles scored a season-low 9 points in a 23-point loss to the Buccaneers in the wild card round, completing their full collapse. We will have a new NFC champion again. Only the 2013-14 Seahawks have repeated since 1999.

They knew it was going to be tough going in without A.J. Brown, but DeVonta Smith stepped up with 8 catches for 148 yards. But the running game was held to just 42 yards on 15 carries after the Eagles were the only team to smack the Bucs for 200 yards in Week 3, which feels like an eternity ago now.

Philadelphia’s tackling also made Pittsburgh’s look good. Was there a tackling ban in Pennsylvania passed over the weekend? This was an atrocious effort from a team that looked like it gave up on the season. Jason Kelce’s career possibly ending on a sour note like this is sad.

My favorite bet in this game was the under (43.5), which hit to wrap up 2023 as a season where the under was 15-5 on Monday nights. Loved that bet all season, but I sure did not expect to see Baker Mayfield throw for 337 yards and 3 touchdowns after he could barely move in Carolina in Week 18. But he looked good, and he’s done something Tom Brady couldn’t: win a playoff game with Todd Bowles as his coach.

But you knew it wasn’t Philly’s night when the Brotherly Shove was stopped on a 2-point conversion in the second quarter when the Eagles got a penalty to put the ball at the 1-yard line. The Bucs got extremely low on the play, and the Eagles didn’t get their normal push, and it helped when you send a linebacker high at Jalen Hurts and grab him by the facemask. That definitely should have been a penalty, but now we’ll wait to see if the league makes any move against this team’s favorite play in the offseason.

I thought for sure we’d get only our second game with a game-winning drive opportunity out of this one, but that went to shit in a hurry late in the third quarter. Down 16-9, Hurts tried too hard on a 3rd-and-6 and found himself retreating to his end zone despite the line of scrimmage being at his 14. Instead of throwing the ball away, he dug the hole deeper and took a safety due to the penalty for intentional grounding, the right call.

That made it 18-9, then two plays later, some more of that horrific tackling left Trey Palmer open for a 56-yard touchdown. I would have tried the 2 to make it 26-9, a three-score game, but the Eagles already looked so beaten down that 25-9 was just fine.

But that little sequence killed any chance of a close finish. Mayfield even hit another blitz with a 23-yard touchdown to Chris Godwin for good measure to make it 32-9.

This is the kind of loss that could get Nick Sirianni fired just one year removed from a Super Bowl loss. Hell, they had the best record in the NFL in Week 12 not even 2 full months ago.

The data always said 10-1 was a mirage. The eye test never passed for this year’s team. But to fall this far so quickly, even I am a little surprised this happened.

The NFC truly does love a flash in the pan.

Next week: I think they saved the best game both days for the night slot with Chiefs-Bills the best choice to close the weekend. After all these runaway games, it sure would be nice to get an epic divisional round much like we got in 2021 when every game was decided at the end with two of the matchups the same (GB-SF and BUF-KC). We’ll see what happens but there is usually at least one road upset in this round.

NFL Stat Oddity: Week 18

~ Scott ~ 2 Comments

Just like that, we have made it through all 272 regular-season games in the 2023 NFL season. In Game No. 272, the Buffalo Bills pulled off a stunning turnaround from 6-6 to 11-6 and the No. 2 seed, coming back to win the AFC East for the fourth year in a row on a day the Patriots officially hit rock bottom as we likely saw the last of Bill Belichick on the sideline there.

The Steelers and Packers are back in the playoffs. We have a division with only winning teams for the first time since 1935. The winner of the NFC South is (barely) above .500 this season.

And not one goddamn tie all season, a huge win in my book.

As for the Week 18 drama, there were only 9 games with a comeback opportunity, but they were focused in the right games with playoff implications like Steelers-Ravens, Texans-Colts, Jaguars-Titans, Bears-Packers, and Bills-Dolphins.

But before we recap the final 16 games of the regular season, this is my favorite time to review how my preseason predictions for final team records fared. I put in a ton of work on these over the summer as I ended up doing 3 articles per team, so there was a lot of research to come up with fresh angles even if I was ultimately arriving at the same conclusion for each team.

Despite some concerns, I am happy to say I was off by an average of 2.06 wins, my 2nd-most accurate predictions since 2013. I nailed 6 teams to their exact record, including both No. 1 seeds, and I was within 2 games for 21-of-32 teams. I could have had 8 teams with an exact record, which would have been my personal best, but that damn Drew Lock touchdown drive against the Eagles in Seattle did me in. Likewise, I never imagined Patrick Mahomes would give the Raiders 14 points in 7 seconds on turnovers at home on Christmas.

There were 4 teams that I was off by 5-to-6 games for, and you can probably guess one as I made them a huge part of my season story, only to see that go up in smoke after 4 snaps in Week 1:

Yep, I had Aaron Rodgers leading the Jets to a 12-5 record and the No. 5 seed, essentially swapping places with the Dolphins, who I had getting swept by the Jets and finishing 9-8 and out of the playoffs. So much for that when his Achilles tore in Week 1. I’m not sure the Jets would have been an elite team this year with that line and struggles to run the ball, but I think the playoffs were certainly doable with Rodgers.

The first-year success of the Colts and Texans definitely took me by surprise in the AFC South. Missed badly on both of those teams, but I don’t think I’m alone in that. C.J. Stroud was kind of the bland rookie quarterback in this class. Anthony Richardson had the “wow factor” with the ability to run (but apparently his durability slider was turned off). Bryce Young was supposed to be this Improv Short King, but he only got his coach fired after 11 games and Carolina had one of the worst seasons ever. Stroud just hit early and was so impressive in that Bobby Slowik, a Kyle Shanahan disciple, offense with receivers that took a huge leap forward like Nico Collins and rookie Tank Dell.

As for the Rams, my initial thought on them was they’d be a sneaky wild card team this year with Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp, and Aaron Donald coming back healthy. But once I started digging into the roster, I had no clue who most of these other 50 guys were. Puka Nacua? Never heard of him. Kyren Williams? Who cares? But it was Puka stepping up early, Kyren coming around later, and this offense looks strong, and the defense has been respectable despite the massive turnover. Great job by Sean McVay and company to get to this point.

Those were my biggest misses, but for a season that I billed as the year of uncertainty, I’m proud of these results overall. Roughly a quarter of the league had a season-ending injury to their primary quarterback. Only 9 teams started the same quarterback in every game (lowest since 1999). A couple of playoff teams (Steelers, Bills) fired their offensive coordinator more than halfway through the season. It was a challenging season filled with blowouts in big matchups and so many low-scoring games on Sunday and Monday nights.

But I am ready for the playoffs, and my playoff picks in the AFC are what I’m most proud of as I can’t imagine many people nailed the top 3 seeds going the way they did, especially with the Bengals favored in the AFC North and the Chiefs favored to repeat, and I also had the Steelers getting the No. 7 seed with a 10-7 record.

  • 1, Baltimore (13-4)
  • 2. Buffalo (12-5)
  • 3. Kansas City (12-5)
  • 4. Jacksonville (10-7)
  • 5. NY Jets (12-5)
  • 6. Cincinnati (11-5)
  • 7. Pittsburgh (10-7)

My NFC picks were far less stellar, only getting 4-of-7 teams right (all fairly obvious ones), and none in the right seed.

  • 1. Philadelphia (12-5)
  • 2. San Francisco (12-5)
  • 3. New Orleans (12-5)
  • 4. Detroit (9-8)
  • 5. Dallas (12-5)
  • 6. Atlanta (9-8)
  • 7. Minnesota (8-9)

The Saints and Falcons were the teams I was high on because of the schedule, but they blew that golden opportunity. Hats off to Tampa Bay for overcoming the fact that they had to play the Eagles, Bills, and 49ers (went 0-3 in those games too) and the other NFC South teams didn’t, and Tampa still won the division. I liked Baker Mayfield to have a better individual season than Tom Brady did in 2022, but I figured he wouldn’t catch the breaks in close games to have a better record. But Baker surprisingly kept the turnovers low and they got to 9-8.

Finally, I think the Vikings are a playoff team if Kirk Cousins doesn’t tear his Achilles, so chalk that up to an Achilles injury in each conference screwing me up here. Cousins was playing some of his best ball when that happened, so we had to experience some fever dreams with Joshua Dobbs and Nick Mullens. Too bad. At least the close-game regression was real as the Vikings played a league-high 14 close games but only finished 6-8 in them a year after they were 11-0.

But we’ll have other opportunities to review the season and where things stand. Let’s get through these 16 games before I get into playoff mode.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

AFC EAST

We had one game for the division title and the other for a 15-game winning streak to come crashing down as Bill Belichick just had to fvck me out of a $$$ parlay win one last time.

Bills at Dolphins: The Paper Tiger Disintegrates

From 6-6 and the No. 11 seed at the bye week to 11-6 and the No. 2 seed going into the playoffs, no one circled the wagons like the Buffalo Bills this season. The numbers were always there when they were 6-6 with a scoring differential of over 100 points. Just stop turning the ball over so much and stop blowing these fourth-quarter leads in egregious fashion like the Denver game where they had 12 men on the field for a field goal that was missed, or when they let Mac Jones lead the single clutch touchdown drive of his career.

But the Bills pulled off this AFC East title with some help from the Dolphins, who choked away a Week 14 game to the Titans that I would call the worst blown lead of 2023. Then the Dolphins were blown out 56-19 in Baltimore a week ago, continuing their pattern of underperforming on both sides of the ball in big games, especially on offense and on the road. They have also been injured with some key players (Jaylen Waddle, Raheem Mostert, Bradley Chubb, Xavien Howard, etc.) missing this game.

But the Bills have their own injuries to deal with, and even in this game, the Bills tried desperately to throw this game away with 3 more turnovers from Josh Allen, who also botched the end of the first half with a completion short of the goal line with the Bills out of timeouts. No points there to go along with the turnovers all happening deep in Miami territory.

The Buffalo defense had Allen’s back in this one. After Allen’s lost fumble killed another scoring chance in a 14-7 game to end the third quarter, the defense forced a quick punt from the Dolphins. Deonte Harty returned that punt 96 yards for a game-tying touchdown with 13:42 left.

Allen led a go-ahead touchdown drive with 7:16 left while the Dolphins had another quick 3-and-out drive. Allen looked like he could put the game away on his own terms instead of putting it in the defense’s shaky hands again. He had an incredible 15-yard scramble on a 3rd-and-13, then the Bills faced a critical 4th-and-1 at the Miami 37 at the 2:00 warning.

I’m not kicking a 55-yard field goal unless maybe I have Justin Tucker as my kicker. Tyler Bass hasn’t earned that kind of reputation for me. I also hate to trust a defense that has already blown 4 leads in the fourth quarter, and you know Miami is more likely to go for a game-winning 2-point conversion than your average team would. No, I’m going to trust my insane quarterback to run up the gut for that first down on the sneak.

Except the Bills tried that and Allen was stopped short by the slimmest of margins. Oh well, I liked the decision anyway. Now it was on the defense, and after a couple of shaky snaps, they almost came away with a pick. On the very next play, they got the pick as Tua threw an awful pass that was picked off by Taylor Rapp with 1:13 left to seal the division title.

The Bills were definitely looking shaky for the playoffs, let alone the AFC East when they were 6-6. But this 5-0 streak has been built on mostly close wins outside of the Dallas rout. This was the fourth time since Week 14 that Buffalo won a game by no more than 7 points. They had 2 such wins in their previous 13 games.

Now the Bills get to host the Steelers, a favorable draw for the wild card round. Then perhaps they will host Kansas City for a change in the divisional round. This isn’t the best Buffalo team since 2020, but maybe it’s the year things fall in place for them. They are winning the close games, Allen is playing great when he’s not turning it over (he was 30-for-36 for 359 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 67 rushing yards outside of the turnover plays), and they are one of the best defensive teams.

The field also contains the weakest Kansas City team in the Patrick Mahomes era and a Baltimore team that has blown it in January before. Maybe this run propels the Bills all the way, or maybe they lose to Mason Rudolph next week.

Either way, it will be must-see TV. The Bills always belonged in this tournament and now we get to see if they can make it pay off.

Jets at Patriots: Hoods Up

Christ, you know it’s over when Belichick is losing a 17-3 snow game at home to the Jets. There goes the 15-game winning streak against the Jets. It was bound to end this year, but we thought that’d be at the hands of Aaron Rodgers, not a 70-yard passing performance from Trevor Siemian.

The conditions looked brutal, and I can’t imagine many players were enjoying themselves on that field. But it meant a little more to the Jets knowing about the 15-game losing streak and how this was expected to be Belichick’s last game as coach of the Patriots.

Bailey Zappe had 31 net passing yards on 37 pass plays thanks to the 7 sacks the Jets ripped through the line for. Just when you thought Belichick had one last fluke of a win in him after a Zappe interception was fumbled back to the Patriots with 2:44 left in a 9-3 game, Zappe made sure his next throw was intercepted too. Breece Hall hit the 50-yard “FU TD” and that was a wrap at 17-3. With a 4-13 record, Belichick finishes the worst season of his coaching career.

We’ve seen the Patriots without a quarterback. Now we’ll see how long they go without a quarterback and without a coach. That stay in the AFC East basement may be longer than this one season.

AFC SOUTH

We didn’t know for sure Saturday night, but that was the de facto division title game thanks to the Jaguars blowing it on Sunday in Tennessee. C.J. Stroud runs this division now until the Colts can keep Anthony Richardson healthy.

Jaguars at Titans: Full Collapse Revenge

Last year, it was the Titans collapsing with a 7-game losing streak to blow the AFC South after a Week 18 loss to the Jaguars. This year, the Jaguars were 8-3 before collapsing with a 1-5 finish, only beating the Panthers last week. That means Trevor Lawrence lost his final 5 starts of the year.

This game wasn’t all on him as the Titans put on a spirited home effort with Ryan Tannehill and Derrick Henry perhaps playing their final games for the Titans. Henry rushed for 153 yards and a touchdown.

The Jaguars trailed 28-13 going into the fourth quarter and needed a miracle. After a touchdown pass to Evan Engram, the Jags intercepted Tannehill and set up Lawrence 28 yards away from a tie. But all the inefficiencies in this Jacksonville offense from Lawrence’s inaccurate throws to bad runs to penalties led to a terrible drive that consumed 5 minutes off the clock and ultimately came up empty on fourth down at the 1-yard line. Lawrence tried one of the worst quarterback sneaks you’ll ever see as his initial lunge (a la Drew Brees) was well short, then his stretch didn’t get the job done either.

Lawrence got the ball back with 2:18 and 75 yards to go, and he couldn’t even get a first down. He missed a deep shot to an open Calvin Ridley, then threw wildly inaccurate again on a 4th-and-2 to Engram with 1:47 left. Season over. Jags (9-8) were finished.

Even at 8-3, I had a hard time trusting this Jacksonville team as a serious contender. Maybe they finish the job in the AFC South if Lawrence never gets hurt against the Bengals in Week 13, and he did have multiple injuries since to deal with. But even before that, his play wasn’t vastly improved from last year, and the Ridley connection wasn’t the greatest. Losing Christian Kirk hurt this offense more than gaining Ridley helped it.

Now with the way Houston has finished this season with C.J. Stroud, the Jaguars are going to enter 2024 as second-class citizens in the division they never really owned. They took advantage of Tennessee’s 2022 implosion, and the Titans made sure they got them back on Sunday by taking them out for 2023.

But if a certain quarterback in Indy stays healthy and pans out, both of these teams could be looking up to those other teams for years to come. I think 2024 is the year Lawrence will finally start getting held to a higher standard, and with the day soon coming when we start talking about a second contract, I think it’s in Jacksonville’s best interest to wait that one out.

Texans at Colts: Can’t Be Worse Off at Quarterback and Defense 

This was a game I immediately flipped on my spread and total picks for last Monday night. I’m talking straight up deleting what I was writing and going the opposite way before sending them in.

Changing to the under was a good move, but taking the team (Colts) that was worse at quarterback and defense in a big game during this time of year? What was I thinking? Week 2 when the Colts won 31-20 was eons ago. Hell, Anthony Richardson started that game. What did it matter now?

But this game was there for the taking for Indy on Saturday night. They just fell short, and they did it in a way that has me nervous about Shane Steichen in the big moments next time. But the game also reinforced the idea that he won’t be ready to compete for real in this division until he has a healthy Richardson who can go toe to toe with C.J. Stroud in a game like this. Gardner Minshew was not up for it.

Stroud came out throwing a haymaker with a 75-yard touchdown pass to Nico Collins on Houston’s first offensive snap. But despite that brilliant throw, the Houston offense was being contained, and the Colts got back into it by riding their best player, Jonathan Taylor. He finished with 188 rushing yards and a 49-yard touchdown run that helped tie the game at 14 in the third quarter.

But for all of Taylor’s dominance, it only did further damage to getting Minshew in any sort of rhythm where they could rely on him down the stretch. Note that right after Taylor’s long touchdown run, the Colts dialed up 5 straight runs, then asked Minshew to convert a 3rd-and-9. He couldn’t get a completion, and the Colts missed a 57-yard field goal off the upright. That short field for Houston led to the Texans taking a 17-14 lead on a 51-yard field goal.

After the Colts tied the game, Stroud went to work on a surgical drive in the final quarter. He threw for 82 yards on the drive, which was capped off by a 3-yard run from Devin Singletary. The Texans missed the extra point, leaving the door open for the Colts at 23-17 with 6:20 left.

But make note of the difference in strategy for these teams. While the Texans relied on Stroud, who only got any production out of Collins and tight end Dalton Shultz, the Colts could not rely on Minshew to drive them down the field. It was going to be the run game, which took a hit in efficiency with an injury along the offensive line to Braden Smith. Taylor also temporarily left the game injured and did not look as great down the stretch.

In the last 1.5 quarters, the Colts ran the ball 16 times for 27 yards with a 25% rushing success rate. Eleven of those 16 carries failed to gain more than 2 yards, and the longest run in that stretch was 6 yards.

Minshew was able to hit Josh Downs for a 28-yard gain to get the drive going, but the Colts continued to rely on the run, even choosing to run on 3rd-and-6 and 3rd-and-5 situations that almost every team calls passes for. One such run worked thanks to a penalty on Houston (automatic first down) and the other did convert at the 2-minute warning with the Colts looking to score the touchdown as late as they could.

But everything went to shit after the 2-minute warning hit. The Colts called 2 more Taylor runs, and he went out of bounds both times, burning a total of 12 seconds, saving timeouts for Houston, and setting up a 3rd-and-2. That is counter to the clock strategy if you’re so concerned about not leaving Stroud time to answer in an expected 24-23 game after the touchdown and extra point.

Taylor got the call again on 3rd-and-2 and came up a yard short, setting up a huge 4th-and-1 at the Houston 15. Instead of having a play to run quickly like another Taylor run or a quarterback sneak, the Colts let the clock go down to 1:06 and called a timeout.

What the hell? There’s burning the clock and then there’s taking so damn long that you just blew your shot of getting another possession in case you don’t get this. If you get stopped around 1:20 with 3 timeouts left, at least you can quickly create another possession. But by blowing that timeout, Steichen put the game on this 4th-and-1, and he was still 15 yards away from the end zone on what was not a good night for his offense.

Worse, Taylor came off the field for the pivotal play, and after calling 7 straight runs, now they decided to let Minshew throw to a backup running back in Tyler Goodson, a player with 6 career catches who had no touches on the night.

While the play was there, the throw wasn’t, and Minshew and Goodson failed to connect. The Texans ended up running it three times, taking an intentional safety, and the Colts tried to lateral around the free kick before the game ended. Season over for Indy and Texans in the playoffs.

I really don’t care if he thinks the running back was open and it was a good play. You can’t put your quarterback and cold running back in that spot after calling 7 straight runs. That’s the kind of throw a Drew Brees could make with a blindfold because he is so used to passing throughout the whole game. He’s in rhythm. He’s also much more accurate than Minshew, but the whole process there after the 2-minute warning was mind-blowingly bad.

You can try playing the clock game, but don’t play yourself. The Colts botched this badly and now another season is over short of the postseason. They better hope Richardson stays healthy and can do plays like the Tush Push a la Jalen Hurts, because that’s a sure conversion if Steichen had his Philadelphia guys on that one.

NFC NORTH

The Lions suffered a big injury (Sam LaPorta) on their way to another win over Minnesota that still left them with a No. 3 seed. The Packers closed this time at home in Week 18 to make the playoffs behind a stellar game from Jordan Love and the 3rd-down defense.

Bears at Packers: Matt LaFleur Moves to 10-0 vs. Chicago

I spent more time in the summer researching the Bears than any other team. I landed on a prediction of 7-10 and behind the Packers, who I had finishing 8-9 in Jordan Love’s first season as the starter.

Well, the Packers got to 9-8 thanks to sweeping the Bears in Weeks 1 and 18. It was good enough for the playoffs too just as it would have been last year when the team lost at home to Detroit in the final game of the Aaron Rodgers era.

But Matt LaFleur simply owns the Bears. He is now 10-0 against them and every win has been by at least 7 points. Jordan Love was fantastic in this game, completing 27-of-32 passes for 316 yards, 2 touchdowns, and no picks. He did lose a fumble on a scramble that left the game in some doubt, but the Bears remain one of the worst comeback teams in NFL history under Matt Eberflus and Justin Fields, and they were not able to erase the 8-point deficit in the final quarter.

That doesn’t mean the Packers made it easy in this quick-moving game (2 hours and 35 minutes). There were only 13 possessions in the entire game, and the Packers  wasted a pair in the first half when they missed a short field goal and failed to get one off to end the half, a mental error by the offense.

Fortunately, the Bears never got the ball in the end zone as the Green Bay defense stepped up with 3 sacks on third downs. Their fifth sack of Fields came on a 2nd-and-16 after the Bears reached Green Bay territory, stifling that drive as well. The Packers got the ball back with 6:08 left, and between good runs and smart throws by Love, they ran out the clock on Chicago to secure their playoff berth.

I don’t know if the Packers are a real threat to Dallas right now. But it makes sense that they were a team that improved in the second half of the season given not only Love’s inexperience but just how little experience the rest of the offense (minus running backs) had going into the season. We probably didn’t hammer that point home enough, and it’s not like this is about developing Christian Watson (disappointing year) and Romeo Doubs. It’s been Jayden Reed, a 2nd-round rookie, and Dontayvion Wicks who have been very productive this year. Reed had 112 yards in this game and Wicks caught both of Love’s touchdowns.

Even Bo Melton, a 7th-round pick from 2022 I never even heard of until a week ago, has come on just in time for Green Bay. He had 105 yards and a touchdown against the Vikings last week and another 5 catches for 62 yards in this game.

The Packers are making it work with Love, who finished second in the league with 32 touchdown passes this year. Tale as old as time, the Packers look better off than Chicago at the quarterback position, and that no doubt played a big difference in the latest Green Bay sweep. This could have been the Bears in the 9-8 wild card position if they had stepped up more against the Packers this year.

Now with the No. 1 pick (thanks, Carolina) and the No. 9 pick, we’ll see what the Bears do at the most important roles on the team.

Vikings at Lions: Offense Shines in Pyrrhic Victory

I can understand why the Lions went full pedal this week. They had a very outside shot of getting the No. 2 seed if the Cowboys and Eagles choked (one did). Still, you get nervous playing your studs in a game like this, and sure enough, the Lions lost tight end Sam LaPorta to a hyperextended knee. He’ll likely miss this playoff run unless it reaches the Super Bowl, and even then, we’ll see.

But it is cool to see Detroit win 12 games, something it only did in 1991, the last season the Lions won a playoff game. This game was a lot like the Week 16 win over Minnesota with Nick Mullens approaching another 400-yard day, but he also threw a couple of big picks again. Jared Goff and the offense shined with all the studs scoring touchdowns (LaPorta, Jahmyr Gibbs, David Montgomery, and Amon-Ra St. Brown).

But LaPorta is a dimension they’ll miss at tight end when they take on the Rams this Sunday night.

NFC EAST

The streak continues. There has not been a repeat winner in the NFC East since the Eagles in 2001-04. Their collapse this year was something to behold, but not necessarily that much of a shock if you paid attention to how they got to 10-1 and how the Cowboys were good at blowing bad teams out.

Cowboys at Commanders: About What You Expected

With a 38-10 win, the Cowboys won the NFC East, secured the No. 2 seed, and notched their 9th win of 20-plus points this year, tying the 1999 Rams for the second most in a season in NFL history. Only the 2007 Patriots (10) had more 20-point wins, and it might be worth noting that neither those Patriots nor Rams won any playoff games by more than 12 points. But they did at least get to the Super Bowl those years with the Rams winning it all.

Dak Prescott has owned Washington his whole career, Sam Howell was lousy down the stretch of 2023, and it’s no surprise the touchdown pass leader threw 4 more scores against the worst defense this year. Ron Rivera should be gone on Monday.

About the only thing that didn’t go well for Dallas was kicker Brandon Aubrey. After making his first 35 field goals this season, he had one blocked from 32 yards and another miss off the upright from 36 yards. Let’s hope that isn’t a sign of the things to come in the playoffs for him after an almost-perfect season.

The Cowboys have high expectations for this postseason now that the Eagles have faded to the wild card, and the only team that’s ahead of Dallas in the standings is San Francisco. We’ve already seen the Cowboys beat the Lions, controversial ending or not.

Time to turn all these fancy numbers into some playoff wins, Dallas.

Eagles at Giants: Viking-Ass Team

On the day the Eagles improved to 10-1 with an overtime win over Buffalo, I said they look more like the 2022 Vikings than they do the 2022 Eagles. The 2022 Vikings are the only team in NFL history to win more than 11 games with a negative scoring differential.

Several people (read: Eagles fans) didn’t like the tweet at the time, but I can only call them when I see them. The 2023 Eagles are my greatest case of fraud detection since the 2019 Patriots started 8-0. The Eagles limped to a 1-5 finish, getting blown out by the 49ers and Cowboys in big games, embarrassing themselves against Drew Lock (Seahawks) and the Cardinals, and now a 27-10 rout at the hands of the lowly Giants.

The Eagles just barely finished with a positive scoring differential (+5), but it is still the 5th lowest for a team with at least 11 wins in NFL history:

The latest loss is the result when your defense continues to get shredded as Tyrod Taylor threw for 297 yards, and the offense suffers too many injuries. DeVonta Smith and D’Andre Swift were already out to start the game. A.J. Brown soon joined them with an injury. Jalen Hurts injured his finger and eventually left the game early after the score grew to 24-0 and the Cowboys were up big on Washington, making the No. 5 seed a near certainty for the Eagles.

Plenty of days to cover the Eagles-Bucs game, so no need to start writing the same narratives I’ll be leaning on this week here. But let’s just say things are trending terribly for this team and it would be a real shock if this led to another deep playoff run from Philly.

NFC SOUTH

The Saints took too long to heat up on offense this year, and their playoff bid came up a game short as Tampa Bay was able to take care of business in Carolina, which completed one of the worst seasons in NFL history.

Buccaneers at Panthers: Back-to-Back Shutouts for Carolina

It was ugly but the Buccaneers leaned on their defense and the fact they were playing one of the worst teams in the Super Bowl era to pull out a 9-0 win and the NFC South title for the third year in a row.

Baker Mayfield was hurting throughout the game but at least he still threw for over 100 yards, unlike Bryce Young who finished with 94 yards, and nearly half of that came on a 42-yard pass to D.J. Chark that was fumbled through the end zone, a game-saving and possibly season-saving play for the Bucs in this one.

Carolina’s kicker situation wasn’t great this year, and after missing a 52-yard field goal to end the third quarter, the Buccaneers turned that good field position into a 39-yard field goal and a 9-0 lead with 10:18 left.

If you’ve been following the Panthers this year or really the last 5 years, you know that’s basically an insurmountable lead for this team. The Bucs forced a strip sack and the offense ran out the final 6:19 to clinch the division with a 9-8 record, which is better than 8-9 the last I checked. At least one Florida team wasn’t going to blow the division title this Sunday.

The Panthers finish the season with 2 wins and 0 snaps with a fourth-quarter lead. Both wins came on walk-off field goals.

  • Even the 1976 Buccaneers (0-14) blew 1 4th-quarter lead.
  • Even the 2008 Lions (0-16) blew 4 4th-quarter leads.
  • Even the 2017 Browns (0-16) blew 1 4th-quarter lead.

The Panthers are the first team since the 2008 Browns to get shutout in consecutive games. Carolina, you were truly awful this year.

Falcons at Saints: Hit the Road, Art

This game was my favorite over (42.5) of the week as both teams moved the ball very well when they met earlier this season. I just didn’t think the Saints (48 points) would cover the over themselves after a little “fvck you touchdown” to end it that set off Arthur Smith at midfield:

https://twitter.com/NFLonCBS/status/1744103230500422103

After another 7-10 season with baffling usage of his offensive players and failing to take advantage of a weak schedule, this is the end of the road for Smith in Atlanta. The team barely waited until midnight to announce his firing.

What a way to go out, a 31-point loss to your main rival and that little tantrum. Do I think he had a point about the Saints rubbing it in with barely a minute left in a 41-17 game? Yeah, I think that was weak. But he could have expressed it better than this.

Derek Carr threw 4 touchdowns and finished the season strong, but it was just too late after a slow start for the offense. The 9-8 record wasn’t good enough for the playoffs, and you can look a that 1-point loss in Green Bay as the decisive one since that’s what got the Packers ahead of New Orleans. The Saints missed a late field goal in that one as Blake Grupe showed some serious choker DNA. Basically, if they kept Wil Lutz as their kicker this year, they’d probably be in the playoffs.

But both teams should be ashamed of not taking advantage of their schedules. They lived up to the expectations of not having many Super Bowl contenders. Hell, even the Jaguars didn’t get to 10 wins and that was supposed to be one of their hardest games alongside Detroit.

AFC NORTH

The Steelers started Week 18 needing a win in rainy Baltimore, and no one really cared about anything in Browns-Bengals except for the outfit worn by Jake Browning’s girlfriend. That backup is winning in life.

Steelers at Ravens: Sweep the Top Seed but Lose to the Pats and Cardinals (Obviously)

When the Steelers nearly turned the ball over 3 times on the opening drive, you could tell the rain was going to be a significant factor. In the end, each team lost 2 fumbles, but the Steelers had an extra 4 fumbles that they did not lose.

Mason Rudolph still managed to complete 18-of-20 passes in the rain, but 71 of his 152 yards came on a short throw to Diontae Johnson that was mostly YAC for the game-winning touchdown to break a 7-7 tie to start the fourth quarter. Is that the kind of play that happens if the Ravens had Marlon Humphrey and Kyle Hamilton playing in the secondary? Hard to say, but it gives Rudolph 3 touchdown passes of 60-plus yards this year, which is behind only Tua Tagovailoa (4) for the 2023 lead. That’s an absurd but true stat. I’m not convinced that means Rudolph is the long-term answer at quarterback, but some of it does speak to his willingness to give these receivers chances that I think Kenny Pickett lacks in his game right now. That’s why I’d start Rudolph in the playoffs.

And yes, there will be playoffs after the Jaguars blew it in Tennessee and punched Pittsburgh’s ticket early on Sunday. Unfortunately, the Steelers are unlikely to have T.J. Watt after friendly fire took him down with an MCL injury in this game. It’s considered a multiple week injury, but you know he’ll at least lobby to play. Just can’t see that being a smart move or ultimately allowed by the team.

It deserves an asterisk for the rested starters (not to mention the dropped passes in Week 5) but the Steelers did sweep the top-seeded Ravens and were the only team to beat them by more than 3 points this year. If Pittsburgh somehow did pull out a win next week and went to Baltimore for the divisional round, that could be amusing as Lamar Jackson has been I the league since 2018 and has literally never had a good game against the Steelers. He rarely plays them too, but Pittsburgh has been getting the upper hand in this rivalry. But good luck getting past the wild card round.

Browns at Bengals: Still the Coach of the Year

Why exactly did the Browns start Jeff Driskel at quarterback? Felt like Kevin Stefanski, who should still win Coach of the Year, wanted to show off and win a game with a 5th different quarterback this year. But Driskel was dreadful, the Bengals led 31-0, and only in garbage time did Driskel deliver a couple of touchdown throws. But hey, Browns over 13.5 points still hit.

The game did make some history though as the 2023 AFC North is the first division since the 1935 West to have nothing but teams with a winning record. The Bengals finished 9-8 and the other teams all won at least 10 games and made the playoffs.

NFC WEST

Not as many stakes here as the 49ers and Rams rested key starters, but both games had a fourth-quarter comeback with the winning team converting a 2-point conversion in a 21-20 final.

Rams at 49ers: The Rare Carson Wentz Comeback

It’s kind of fitting that a Carson Wentz-led comeback of 13 points in the second half against a No. 1 seed would only happen in a game where both teams were not all that interested in winning. If the Rams truly cared about making sure they won and got the No. 6 seed, they would have started Matthew Stafford, Kyren Williams, Aaron Donald, and maybe Cooper Kupp.

They did play Puka Nacua, who stayed in long enough to set the rookie records for yards and catches in a season. He also caught a helpful touchdown from Wentz, who ended up running 17 times for 56 yards and a touchdown. I guess Sean McVay didn’t really care since this could be one of the last auditions that Wentz gets as a starter in the NFL.

But the 49ers didn’t score on their 4 second-half possessions, the Rams took the lead on a touchdown drive that got jumpstarted with a 48-yard flag for defensive pass interference, and Sam Darnold was unable to set up a field goal for the 49ers, who will be content with the bye week.

But it is a bit concerning that the 49ers are 1-4 in close games and 0-4 at 4QC/GWD opportunities. This will come up during the month in playoff previews, but you’re just not likely to get through a whole Super Bowl run, even if it’s 3 games long, without beating someone good in a close game. This team will have to show it can do that and it’s not like we don’t have years of evidence in San Francisco of Shanahan-coached teams not stepping up in these moments. This loss didn’t matter, but the next time the season will be on the line.

But good for the Rams getting to 10 wins as I really wanted to pick them as a dark horse for the wild card this summer, then I got scared away after not recognizing their roster outside of Stafford, Kupp, and Donald. Really good effort from McVay and company here. And we get to see the perfect wild card matchup in Detroit next Sunday night.

Seahawks at Cardinals: Matt Prater’s Lousy Day

Congrats to James Conner for clinching his first 1,000-yard rushing season in the NFL. He was my favorite prop pick in Week 18, and he delivered in a big way with 150 yards on the ground and 54 more through the air.

It’s just too bad the Cardinals let it go to waste as well as a sweet trick play on a field goal for a touchdown pass from Kyler Murray to Trey McBride to take a 20-13 lead in the fourth quarter.

Matt Prater could have basically iced the game with 3:00 left on a 43-yard field goal that would have made it 23-13 after the Seahawks used their final timeout, but the normally reliable kicker missed. The Cardinals folded like a cheap suit on defense, and in just 4 plays, the Seahawks were in the end zone on a 34-yard touchdown from Geno Smith to Tyler Lockett, who also caught the 2-point conversion to go up 21-20 with 1:54 left.

At this point, it was already clear from Green Bay that the Packers were winning the game and going to the playoffs, keeping Seattle out. That probably influenced the 2-point call too.

The Cardinals still had plenty of time to answer, but after a Conner run to the 30, they botched the end game. Not quite as bad as Steichen and the Colts on Saturday night, but still pretty bad with Murray running out of bounds on a play that took time and went down as a 2-yard sack. Then a Conner run lost a yard.

Prater can blast kicks from 50-plus yards, but he was already shaky on the previous kick and again failed to deliver on the 51-yard game-winning field goal as time expired. The Cardinals finish 4-13 and will have some decisions to make. The Seahawks, who will finish with a league-high 6 game-winning drives, are 9-8 again, but this time they didn’t get the help from Green Bay losing at home to get in a tournament they were unlikely going to advance in past next week.

AFC WEST

Stakes? No, nothing to see here.

Broncos at Raiders: Nope, We Don’t Care

The Raiders won 27-14 as both teams finished 8-9. Next.

Chiefs at Chargers: Easton Stuck in Goal to Go

The Chiefs set milestones aside and rested Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce (among others) with the No. 3 seed a lock. Easton Stick somehow dropped back 63 times, including 13 runs for 77 yards, in a weird game for the Chargers, but they blew it inside the 5-yard line early and late. A Stick fumble was scooped up for a 97-yard touchdown return, then the Chargers couldn’t get it in late and settled for a field goal to take a 12-10 lead. Backup starter Blaine Gabbert had enough legs for a couple of scrambles to set up a game-winning field goal (13-12), and the Chargers of course had no answer in the final minute.

The 2023 Chargers finish 1-10 at 4QC/GWD opportunities and lead the league with 5 blown leads in the fourth quarter. The Chargering brand is still strong.

Next week: It’s the playoffs. I’ll have links to in-depth previews and betting picks (props, upset pick, computer picks, etc.) for every game. The real fun might not start until the divisional round, but there are still plenty of stories from these games. With the way this season has gone, who knows, the Super Bowl teams may be in action on wild card weekend.

NFL Stat Oddity: Week 17

~ Scott ~ 3 Comments

Admittedly, I had higher expectations for Sunday after the way Week 17 started with Joe Flacco practically throwing for 300 yards in a half against the Jets (without Amari Cooper), then the game not even producing a touchdown after a 51-point half (an NFL first).

Then we watched the Lions and Cowboys on Saturday night in a game that I would describe as ideal for a big matchup this year. Not a shootout with horrible defense and receivers running wide open everywhere, but talented players (CeeDee Lamb, Brandin Cooks, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam LaPorta, etc.) stepping up to make plays, defenses making it tough on both offenses, and a lot of strategic decisions you can second guess like Dan Campbell sticking to his guns with 4th downs and 2-point conversions.

In the end, there was another officiating controversy I’m in no mood on New Year’s night to write about. Officials suck, period, but it was at least an illegal formation, no? They threw two flags. But I think the 2-point decision by Detroit was defensible with 23 seconds left. I just don’t agree with going for it from the 7-yard line after the penalty. But that game also showed why both teams are good but still a little hard to trust.

But Sunday didn’t produce too many thrills. There were 8 games with a comeback opportunity. The only lead changes saw Patrick Mahomes lead the 20th game-winning drive of his career, a game where the Chiefs scored six field goals after falling behind by 10 points, and an epic comeback/choke in Philadelphia that can really rewrite the season script for January.

Because we are into January now, and we know that brings out the worst in NFL fans. So, let’s try to keep a levelheaded view of where things are with one week to go.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Dolphins at Ravens: Game of the Ye-Yeah, We REALLY Need to Stop Hyping These

I want to give Mike McDaniel credit for picking the Dallas week to deliver his cute little “respectfully, f off” speech to the media when asked about Miami’s record against winning teams during his tenure. If you’ve been following Miami (and Dallas), then you know playing a contender on the road is the much bigger issue for this team as seen in the losses this year to the Bills, Eagles, and Chiefs (Germany).

Practically every team is going to struggle in road games against contenders, but Miami’s track record is not one that makes me think this team is anything more than a paper tiger. A team built on speed, not enough depth as McDaniel thinks he has, and an offense that seems to fail against the contenders that have strong defenses.

But in a way, I almost felt bad for them going down 56-19 in Baltimore, because they are better than that, and this was the first time in one of these big matchups this year where they had a valid excuse to underperform. They didn’t have Jaylen Waddle and Raheem Mostert on offense, and when you are an offense built around speed, then not having half of your main weapons you rely so heavily on is a big blow.

But in a game that likely locked up an MVP for Lamar Jackson, it also showed why someone like Tyreek Hill can almost never be MVP in this league. On a day where Waddle is out, you have to expect Hill to do more. But when the game was very much competitive, Hill had a huge blunder that cost his team 4 points when he bobbled a wide-open catch in the end zone and couldn’t secure it in time with both feet down. The Dolphins had to settle for a field goal and 10-7 lead instead of 14-7 after this started out like the Buffalo loss in Week 4 where it looked like a shootout before it quickly turned into a bloodbath.

Hill finished with 6 catches on 12 targets for 76 yards, a below-average game for his high standards this year. The dream of 2,000 yards is over now unless he has one of the greatest games in NFL history against those Bills next week.

The Hill drop stung, but the Dolphins largely blew this game late in the second quarter to early in the third quarter, not unlike the Packers in the 2020 NFC Championship Game against Tampa Bay.

After settling for another field goal to make Baltimore’s lead 14-13, Zay Flowers got behind the defense for a 75-yard touchdown, avoiding two tackles on a 1-play drive to make it 21-13.

Miami loves to play fast in every way, but sometimes that rush to get another play off before the 2-minute warning is completely unnecessary as it was here with the Dolphins already in Baltimore territory. But Tua rushed the play, and he was picked. It looked like the defense might force a 4-and-out after the Ravens decided to go for a 4th-and-7 in no man’s land, but Jackson’s pass was pulled in with one hand by tight end Isaiah Likely, who raced the rest of the way for a 35-yard touchdown to blow it open at 28-13.

The Dolphins also botched their hurry-up offense on the final drive of the half, ending without any points again. To start the second half, Baltimore returned the kickoff 78 yards to help the offense start a drive in the red zone as I’ve mentioned this week the Ravens have the best starting field position in the league. Three plays later, Jackson found a wide open Likely for another touchdown.

In under 5 minutes of action, the Ravens went from a 14-13 lead to a 35-13 lead, and just like that the game was basically over.

The Dolphins were famously down 21 points in the fourth quarter last year in Baltimore and won 42-38, the only big road win of McDaniel’s career to this day. But while they were down 22 in this quarter and got a touchdown to make it 35-19, the Ravens made sure history would not be repeated. They quickly drove for 75 yards as Jackson threw his fifth touchdown pass, then the Dolphins went 4-and-out with Tua scrambling unsuccessfully on a 4th-and-long, setting up yet another short-field touchdown for the Ravens. Tyler Huntley even came in after the Dolphins fumbled a snap and threw a sixth touchdown pass for Baltimore to make it 56-19 one play after Bradley Chubb was injured for Miami, another potentially big loss for the defense.

Would Waddle and Mostert have made a difference? They unfortunately can’t play defense. But maybe a fuller offense could have made it 21-16 or tied it up at 21 going into halftime instead of that disastrous finish. But, I’m not sure I’d like Miami’s chances to even cover the spread in a rematch in Baltimore because that’s where the game would be with the Ravens locking up the No. 1 seed.

Tale as old as time in the NFL. The “finesse” offense (the track team) gets punched in the mouth by the No. 1 defense, and the less heralded offense on the other side is the one that’s finding all the big plays and making it look easy.

Seriously, Jackson threw 5 touchdown passes in this game and 4 of them went to wide-open receivers, and 2 of them were one-handed catches. If that wasn’t happening, there was almost no pressure on him with a massive pocket to work from, and they even made big YAC plays in this game. It was a total shredding of the Miami defense.

But it’s also historic in that this was not the first time this season Miami allowed a quarterback to throw for 300 yards with a perfect passer rating (158.3). They already did that in Buffalo against Josh Allen in Week 4 when he was 21-of-25 for 320 yards and 4 touchdowns. He also rushed for a touchdown in that 48-20 win.

This makes the 2023 Dolphins the first defense in NFL history to allow multiple quarterbacks to throw for 300 yards with a perfect passer rating.

In fact, this stat is very much a Miami thing as it’s not even the first time Jackson has done it against them. He did it against the 2019 Dolphins, the “Tank for Tua” year, which started his first MVP campaign in Week 1. Of the last 18 times a defense has allowed a game like this since 2007, 6 of them were against the Dolphins. It’s only happened 34 times ever.

With the top seed locked up, the Ravens can choose to rest starters, though that’s a lot of rest before the divisional round. The Dolphins have a division title game on Sunday night against Buffalo, but at least it’s at home.

On the road, you fade these Dolphins every time. As for the Ravens, it might take another one of those Playoff Joe Flacco miracles (and one from Myles Garrett) to put an end to this run they are on. Cleveland is the only team to beat the Ravens in their last 11 games.

Cause you can’t count on Miami to do it in Baltimore. You want to trust Kansas City with that offense right now? That sounds like a couple of Mahomes incompletions on 4th-and-25 waiting to happen. Buffalo? Not even a lock to make the tournament.

But if you’re going to start putting all your adulation on this Baltimore team, then the expectations better be the highest as well. It’s their Super Bowl to lose now.

Bengals at Chiefs: Another Cincinnati Season Ends in Arrowhead

Usually when you talk about the Chiefs and “six field goals” you are talking about Mike Tomlin’s last playoff win. But this peculiar game, which goes down as the 20th game-winning drive for Patrick Mahomes, is another case of the Bizarro 2023 Chiefs doing things we are not used to seeing them do.

Jake Browning looked game early, and the Bengals were up 17-7 while limiting Mahomes’ possessions and shrinking the game, still an excellent gameplan against the Chiefs as they are so mistake prone these days.

But Steve Spagnuolo’s defense again rose to the occasion, stopped the early bleeding, and the Bengals failed to score on their final 7 drives. After an opening-drive touchdown was followed by a Mahomes strip-sack, the Chiefs embarked on an odyssey of drives that saw them settle for 6 field goals over the next 7 drives.

They were still decent-length drives except the last one, but they always stalled out for some reason. MVS had another bad 3rd-down drop to end one drive, then Mahomes made a few too many checkdowns on other 3rd downs that were short of the line to gain. To Andy Reid’s credit, I can’t really argue with the decision to kick on any of them. They were all 4th-and-3 or longer except the last one, and they were all outside of the 5-yard line. The Chiefs just kept chipping away while the Bengals continuously stalled after that hot start.

The game-winning drive was early in the quarter, and the play that defined it was actually late third quarter when Mahomes floated one deep down the right sideline for Rashee Rice, who took it 67 yards to the red zone. Rice (127 yards) and Isiah Pacheco (165 scrimmage yards) were fantastic in a game where Travis Kelce had just 3 catches on 4 targets for 16 yards against what is statistically the worst defense against tight ends this year. Even Noah Gray had 17 yards in this one, so that connection with Kelce is really not clicking going into the playoffs.

But it didn’t matter in this one. The Chiefs had Rice and Pacheco, and they had a defense that sacked Browning 5 times in the last 5:29 of the game. Is that an homage to Joe Burrow? But it was relentless defense at the end, and this time it was Browning instead of Mahomes who was throwing incomplete on 4th-and-27 with the game hanging in the balance with just over a minute left.

This time it was the Chiefs coming out on the winning end of six field goals. Locked into the No. 3 seed and possibly in rest mode next week, I’m not sure if this was the performance they needed to get ready for what expects to be their most challenging postseason run of the Mahomes era.

But it was another Cincinnati season ending at Arrowhead as the Bengals (8-8) were eliminated Sunday. It is another AFC West title for the Chiefs, who stand alone in second place for the longest streak in NFL history with 8 straight division titles.

Cardinals at Eagles: Is It Matt Patricia?

No point in wasting all the narrative talk on a Week 17 recap on New Year’s, but let’s just say the 2023 Eagles could be a good case study in not overlooking a team that loses both coordinators.

I loved Arizona ATS (got up to +12) this week, because I’ve been saying for many weeks how the Eagles aren’t playing like a team with their record should be. I think many of us didn’t know until recently that Matt Patricia was hired to consult the defense this year, and let’s just say he isn’t Jonathan Gannon for them with recent reports of the Eagles’ players wanting to self-scout more on defense. That’s only led to giving up a game-winning touchdown drive to Drew Lock in Seattle, having to fight off a high-scoring comeback attempt from Tyrod Taylor and the Giants on Christmas, and now this pathetic 35-31 loss to Arizona that should go down as the worst loss in the Nick Sirianni-Jalen Hurts era so far.

The Eagles led 21-6 at halftime too, but that was mostly thanks to an incredible 99-yard pick-6 by rookie Sydney Brown. The Cardinals moved the ball extremely well in this game but stalled out on their first-half drives. They wouldn’t be stopped after halftime, going on touchdown drives of 75, 77, 77, and 70 yards. In fact, the only drive in the game by Arizona (8 drives) that didn’t gain at least 43 yards was the 9-yard drive before halftime, and that’s only because it started with 16 seconds left. This was an absolute shredding and one of the best performances by any offense this season, pick-6 withstanding.

That’s also why the Cardinals held the ball for nearly 40 minutes and doubling up the Eagles on that front. James Conner led a great ground attack (221 team yards rushing) and even caught a one-handed touchdown from Kyler Murray, who was 25-of-31 for 232 yards.

The Cardinals tied the game at 28 with 5:26 left, then did a surprise onside that failed with a penalty for lining up offsides. I’m still not convinced that needed to be done. The Philly offense is inevitable with 1 yard to go, but a long field is a different story.

The Cardinals caught some breaks along the way after that like an injury stopping the clock at 5:08. Then after a holding penalty on the Eagles made it 1st-and-20, Philly went incredibly conservative with back-to-back designed runs with Hurts that only gained 1 net yard to make it 3rd-and-19. At that point you’re basically settling for a short play and field goal, which is what they did. It was 31-28 with 2:33 left, and the Cardinals still had 2 timeouts as the Eagles did a terrible job of killing clock.

Arizona faced little resistance on the ensuing drive, and Conner finished it off with a 2-yard touchdown run with 32 seconds left to make it 35-31. Going 75 yards in 32 seconds without a timeout is asking for a miracle from any offense, and the game ended with Hurts’ Hail Mary from the 49 getting intercepted in the end zone.

With the Cowboys winning on Saturday night and expected to beat Washington next week, that means the NFC East is expected to go to Dallas. The Eagles were 10-1 with a win in hand over the 8-3 Cowboys just over a month ago.

What a disastrous slide this is turning out to be, but it wasn’t all that unpredictable to see. Sure, blowing it to Drew Lock with Hurts having a quasi-flu game was rough and unexpected, and Arizona definitely didn’t look like an offense ready to drop 35 points on 8 drives in this one.

But before you think I’m going to bring up the breaks the Eagles needed to beat Dallas, Kansas City and Buffalo in consecutive weeks, keep in mind the Eagles were the team that needed to rally twice against Washington and made Sam Howell look like Steve Young in his prime. Again, that happened twice this year.

Repeating is hard. Sure, the Chiefs just won the AFC West for the 8th year in a row, but good luck on the conference. But in the NFC East, there has not been a repeat division champion since the Eagles did it in 2001-04.

That’s looking like it will continue, and the Eagles have no one to blame but themselves. Seriously, Matt Patricia? Silent Bob with a pencil he stole from Belichick’s office?

Steelers at Seahawks: The Streak Continues

By improving to 9-7, Mike Tomlin has helped the Steelers extend their streak of non-losing seasons to 20 with a surprisingly high-scoring 30-23 win in Seattle. This was more like the performance I thought the Steelers would have in Indianapolis a few weeks ago (but with fewer points), but now they can only hope that Indy loss doesn’t doom them for the playoffs.

It just sums up the annoying thing about Tomlin’s team in that he can beat the Bengals as a home underdog last week, he can win this game as a 4.5-point road underdog when Seattle needed it badly too, but it comes after blowing home games to the 2-win Patriots and Cardinals in the same week. It comes after getting picked apart by Gardner Minshew and backup runners in Indy.

Now it sets up a match where they might lose to Baltimore’s backups, which is going to look bad, or they can beat them, which is taking advantage of a gift that still may not be enough for them to get in the tournament.

But that’s next week. As for this game, well, it presents another conundrum/annoyance as Mason Rudolph has now led the Steelers to back-to-back games with 30 points, something Kenny Pickett hasn’t done twice in his career period. Rudolph played fairly mistake-free football, handled some bad snaps from center well, and gave his receivers, namely George Pickens, chances to make plays. He was 18-of-24 for 274 yards, very good numbers by a Pittsburgh quarterback for the second week in a row.

The Steelers also piled up 468 yards of offense, their most since the 2020 season. I was skeptical of last week because of the big YAC plays from Pickens and the recent ownership of that Cincinnati defense, but this was an NFC opponent and it wasn’t a fluke.

The Steelers also got there because of a strong running game with Najee Harris providing one of his best games ever with 122 yards on the ground, and he could have scored 3 touchdowns if he wanted before going down to end the game.

The offense was legit in this one. The defense did enough to keep Geno Smith and company out of the end zone after halftime. In a 24-17 game in the fourth quarter, the Steelers held the Seahawks to another field goal, which the Steelers matched. Smith played well, but sometimes all it takes is one quick edge pressure to change a season, and this time it wasn’t T.J. Watt who provided it for Pittsburgh. Rookie Nick Herbig made his play of the season with a strip-sack of Smith, and that led to a field goal and essentially set up a less dramatic ending after Pete Carroll called one of the worst challenges ever to waste one of his precious timeouts with 5:49 left.

That mattered because the Seahawks took just too long to score another field goal, making it at 2:01 left, and then not recovering the onside kick at 2:00 to lose out on another clock stoppage. The Steelers came out aggressive with a 24-yard throw to Pickens, then Harris ended it on the ground and did not take the bait to score a touchdown he didn’t need.

Crushing loss for the Seahawks, who may only finish with the same record as last year (9-8) and that’s not always good enough for the tournament. Can a Pittsburgh team playing like this pull off an upset in Buffalo or Miami if they were the No. 7 seed? Yeah, I actually think it’s possible now. But they have to continue with Rudolph at quarterback as he gives them a more aggressive style that brings out more in the wide receivers.

Lose next week with Rudolph and that makes it rather simple to go back to Pickett next year. But if they actually pull this off and get in behind Rudolph? Good luck sorting this mess out for next year (besides shipping Mitch Trubisky out the door). I guess everyone is just waiting for the other shoe to drop with this Rudolph run, but I have to say he looks better than he did in the past.

He looks better than Pickett ever has.

Patriots at Bills: Zapped in Buffalo

Again, let’s get Bill Belichick the hell out of New England and with a team that has a solid quarterback, because he can still coach defense. Josh Allen and the Bills, in a very important game, really struggled to move the ball in this rematch. They basically had one good drive for a touchdown to start the second half, but before that, the Bills were sitting on 20 points thanks to a series of short fields and a pick-six. The 13 offensive points covered a total of just 42 yards.

How does that happen? The generous New England offense had 4 turnovers, including a trio of interceptions thrown by Bailey Zappe. I can’t believe I’m saying this, but it’s possible this was a game Mac Jones would have won. He already had his best game of the year against Buffalo in a 29-25 win, the 29 points being a season-high in scoring for New England.

Zappe did have a nice 18-yard touchdown run, but he dug a big hole early despite getting the gift of a kickoff return touchdown to begin the game. Down 27-21 in the fourth quarter, all New England could do was go 3-and-out from deep in its own end with 5:02 left.

The Bills weren’t about to let a repeat of last time happened, and they finally put together their other good offensive drive of the day by running out the clock by picking up 3 more first downs.

The job’s not finished but the Bills escaped this one, which would have been an embarrassing sweep on the resume for Sean McDermott.

Saints at Buccaneers: Baker and Bowles’ Pumpkin Bowl

Not all is lost for Tampa as a road win against the lowly Panthers (2-14) is all it will take next week to win the NFC South. But you really don’t want to leave it to that, especially when the sting of blowing that game will be even worse and possibly cost Todd Bowles his job, and make the team reconsider if Baker Mayfield is really “the guy” beyond this year.

This team was playing well but laid a total egg at home in this one. When Taysom Hill is catching 22-yard touchdown passes and you’re still sitting on 0 points nearly halfway through the fourth quarter, something went terribly wrong.

Not only did Mayfield get picked twice, but the skill players coughed up a pair of fumbles, including an inexplicable one by Trey Palmer to erase a 54-yard play with 3:36 left. But down 23-7, the game was already in hopeless territory. The Bucs did end up getting it back and scoring quickly but did not recover the onside kick. Also botched the 2-point conversion, so it was still 23-13.

I will say props to Derek Carr for playing a clean game on the road in a must-win situation far as the division title goes. But we’ll just have to see if it’s too late for the Saints as the Bucs get the easier matchup next week with Carolina.

49ers at Commanders: A Little Close for a 17-Point Win

This game was definitely not what I was planning to see. I wanted to see Jacoby Brissett start for Sam Howell, who was abysmal in recent weeks, but Brissett was injured and unable to go. Howell only threw for 169 yards and had a couple of picks in the second half.

But I also thought the Commanders would be getting destroyed by play-action bombs to wide-open guys like they’ve done against other teams all year. Instead, Brock Purdy had an efficient game but was only able to throw 2 touchdown passes, including a nice extended play to Brandon Aiyuk, who finished with 114 yards.

That score made it 27-10 in the fourth quarter and gave the 49ers (-14) the cover, but it was a little uncomfortable there with Chrisitan McCaffrey on the sideline with an injury. The 49ers ran the ball a lot (39 times for 184 yards) and it was successful, but no touchdown for McCarthy this week and he didn’t finish the game, so that’s not great news.

But the 49ers did wrap up the top seed after the Eagles choked.

Rams at Giants: Mason Crosby’s Arthritis Picked a Bad Time to Flare Up

The Rams keep winning and have this nice new collection of skill players that they are thriving with, but they sure do not make it easy in putting games away the last few weeks. After taking a 20-10 lead in the third quarter, they gave up big plays to Tyrod Taylor and the Giants, Matthew Stafford threw a pick, the Rams missed a key extra point after Kyren Williams’ third touchdown run, and the special teams struck again when they gave up a 94-yard punt return touchdown with 3:27 left.

I get why the Giants would go for it after a penalty put the ball at the 1, but Taylor and Saquon Barkley were just not in sync on what should have been an easy pitch and catch for the go-ahead score.

But the conservative Sean McVay played right into another team’s hands in a 26-25 game with two runs and a sack for a quick three-and-out. Taylor is 4-22-1 at comeback opportunities in his career, and this could have been a rare win for him after driving into field goal range.

But after Taylor’s 31-yard scramble, the Giants messed up by playing for the long kick instead of being more aggressive to get closer. They settled for a 54-yard field goal, and 39-year-old kicker Mason Crosby, who only was playing his second game this season with the team, had to come on for that long attempt in the cold air. He’s used to the elements of course from Green Bay, but he was jobless until this month for a reason. That old leg never stood a chance, and he was wide left with 30 seconds left. Game over.

The Rams survived another one and are in the playoffs. Let’s hope they get to go to Detroit for that wild card game, but I don’t believe it’s set in stone yet.

Raiders at Colts: Guess Kansas City was the Vegas Super Bowl

Aidan O’Connell was able to complete some passes after the first quarter this week, including two touchdowns to Davante Adams, who looked like a vintage version of himself with an incredible grab on 4th down with 43 seconds left to make it 23-20.

But that was too little too late as the Raiders were not able to recover the onside kick. The Raiders had their chances in this one and did have 26 first downs on offense (10 more than the Colts). But Gardner Minshew hit a couple of 50-yard passes that were enough to put touchdowns on the board for Indy, who now just has to beat Houston at home for the playoffs this Saturday night.

Titans at Texans: DeMeco Ryans’ Defense Dominates Again

C.J. Stroud returned to the Texans, but the defense stole the show this time. The defense already played very well against the Titans in Week 15’s 19-16 win in overtime where a pick-6 was included in the scoring for Tennessee.

This time the defense was even better, holding the Titans to 3 points and returning a fumble from Will Levis for a touchdown. They knocked Levis out of the game and kept pounding Ryan Tannehill with 5 sacks. It was an all-around strong 26-3 win for the Texans, who will be in Indy for a huge game this Saturday night.

Falcons at Bears: Dome Team in Flurries

Maybe the closest thing to a snow game this regular season, the Falcons froze up in Chicago after a poor start. They trailed 14-0, Younghoe Koo botched two field goals he’d usually make, and it didn’t get much better from there with the Bears dropping 37 points on this defense thanks to some short fields in the second half.

The quarterback situation is officially toast in Atlanta after Tayor Heinicke completed 10-of-29 passes with 3 picks. Desmond Ridder relieved him and also threw a pick. Just an all-around mess that leaves Atlanta with the third-best odds to win the division, and this might soon be the end for Arthur Smith.

Panthers at Jaguars: No Lawrence, No Problem

Trevor Lawrence’s long list of injuries finally led to him missing the first game of his NFL career. But if you thought (like me) that the Panthers would build on last week’s offensive success and maybe steal one against a struggling Jacksonville team, you were way off.

The Panthers were absolutely abysmal on offense in the 26-0 loss as Bryce Young passed for just 112 yards and lost 45 more on sacks. C.J. Beathard was solid enough in Lawrence’s place, and Travis Etienne broke off a 62-yard touchdown run early in the third quarter to make it 16-0 and basically wrap things up there.

The Jaguars are 9-7 just like the Colts and Texans but still have the inside track to win the AFC South.

Packers at Vikings: Sunday Night Blowout

I think Kevin O’Connell screwed up in benching Nate Mullens in favor of rookie Jaren Hall. This was a must-win game to stay alive for the playoffs, and while Mullens is ridiculous with the interceptions, he moves the ball at a good rate. He could have done some damage against a struggling defense like Green Bay’s and on a night where the Vikings really needed the offense.

But Hall had a lousy first half, and by the time O’Connell benched him for Mullens, it was already 23-3, too big a hole to dig out of. Jordan Love had a big night with 4 total touchdowns as the offense basically did whatever it wanted against Minnesota’s defense, making up for that season-low 10 points in Week 8’s loss to the Vikings.

Green Bay (8-8) makes the playoffs with a win over the Bears next week, which is surprisingly a game we won’t see in prime time.

Chargers at Broncos: And No One Cared

It’s hard to take much interest in what the Broncos (now eliminated) are doing after this ridiculous Russell Wilson story came out this week and the team benched him for Jarrett Stidham.

But it’s good to know that Chargering has no limitations. In this one alone, the Chargers fumbled in a 13-6 game to start the fourth quarter (Austin Ekeler this time), had a 50-yard field goal blocked, and couldn’t recover an onside kick that Denver bobbled for a brief moment to end it 16-9. Ho-hum, both teams are literally onto 2024 with the other AFC outcomes eliminating Denver.

Next week: Lots of playoff scenarios, but some of the main ones are can the Packers close at home in Week 18 this year to make the playoffs, can the Steelers beat Baltimore’s backups (?) on Saturday, how does C.J. Stroud handle a quasi-playoff game on the road in prime time, does Dallas have a road choke in Washington for the second year in a row, could the Eagles even make it pay off against the Giants if Dallas did, and why is there more pressure on Buffalo than Miami to win this game to end this regular season from hell?

And next Sunday night is when I go back and review my preseason predictions, which may not be good (thanks for 4 snaps, Aaron Rodgers), but I did pick Baltimore to win the No. 1 seed and Super Bowl.

NFL Stat Oddity: Week 16

~ Scott ~ 4 Comments

I debated how I wanted to handle posting this week with the holiday, and I just had to wait for Monday to see what the Ravens and 49ers did. Little did I expect the Chiefs would also blow a game at home to the Raiders, but it was that kind of day and I got it covered along with Sunday’s action.

I’m not recapping the Saturday games below.

I will point out it’s probably not a coincidence that Pittsburgh’s only 2 games with 30 points and only 2 games with over 380 yards since 2022 were all in games against Cincinnati. They just have something on that divisional opponent. But it was good to see a legitimate offense for a change, and Mason Rudolph giving a talented receiver like George Pickens opportunities down the field had a lot to do with it. Do they go back to Kenny Pickett for the Seattle game? Probably so given Tomlin’s past, but we’ll see what happens.

As for Buffalo, let’s just say that 24-22 win against Easton Stick was underwhelming and doesn’t inspire much confidence this team will beat the Patriots, the Dolphins in Miami, and then go on a playoff run. But at least they came back to win this one and Josh Allen’s throw to Khalil Shakir on 3rd-and-4 was possibly a season-saver for Buffalo.

In all, Week 16 had 9 games with a comeback opportunity.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Ravens at 49ers: Game of the Ye-Yeah We Need to Stop Hyping These Up

You almost never get to see the top seeds facing off this late in the regular season. When the Seahawks and Colts met in 2005, the Colts blew that game off for playoff rest by quickly resting starters, so it wasn’t even a real matchup.

This could have been something special, and for a half, it was. Both defenses were giving up plays and making plays. Points were going on the board as Baltimore led 16-12. That’s exactly the kind of half you love to see in a game like this.

The Ravens intercepted Brock Purdy 3 times in the half, but the first one was the worst as he didn’t see the defender late in the red zone. The others were tipped balls that were just unfortunate bounces. Lamar Jackson made some plays but also got the scoring started for San Francisco with a ridiculous safety for a grounding call after he retreated 20 yards to the end zone.

Again, it was a fun half as both teams love to take control early. The Ravens are better known for blowing leads, but Kyle Shanahan-coached teams are not known at all for coming back. That’s why you had to feel some real nervousness at halftime with the 16-12 deficit even if the 49ers survived the 3 interceptions to that margin.

But this game basically was decided in a 100-second span to start the second half. The 49ers gave up a big punt return plus a penalty for a huge loss in field position, and the Ravens turned that short field into a quick touchdown to go up 23-12. On the very next snap from scrimmage, Purdy was hit and intercepted as Patrick Queen took the ball to the San Francisco 9. One snap later, Jackson found Zay Flowers for a 9-yard touchdown.

Boom. Just like that, it was 30-12 and the 49ers needed their biggest comeback since 2011. Time was there and the Ravens have blown worse, but the confidence killer that is a 4-pick parade cannot be understated. The Ravens bypassed a 4th-and-1 from the 1 to take a 25-point lead for a field goal and a 21-point lead, but that was one of the last strategic moments of relevance in the game.

Purdy suffered a stinger in the fourth quarter and Sam Darnold came in and finished the drive for a touchdown. The Ravens went 3-and-out, Darnold was still dealing, and this looked like it might have potential for a wild finish if the 49ers could score another touchdown before the 2-minute warning to make it a 33-26 game. But they royally blew that after getting a 1st-and-goal from the 2 with 2:16 left. Darnold took a huge sack, the 49ers were called for a false start, and he eventually threw a pick on 4th-and-goal from the 17 with 1:00 left. Game over.

Put me on record for thinking a Super Bowl rematch between these teams could potentially be lousy. Granted, the 49ers did for the most part contain Baltimore’s running game outside of one 30-yard scramble by Jackson, who only had 15 yards on his other 6 runs. It also was close to being a 7-point game despite the 49ers being down 4-0 in the turnover department (4-1 if we include Jackson’s grounding safety). You can’t count on a couple of deflected picks always going your way. Ask the Ravens. They had a tipped pick-6 go against them in the fourth quarter in their loss to Cleveland this year.

I just think the 49ers are a front-running team, even more than Baltimore, and they are not good at coming back in games. Those early picks threw things off for Purdy all night and he just never recovered. It also didn’t help that the line, which has a weakness in pass pro, looked overmatched, and that was true even before Trent Williams was injured.

As for the excessive amount of MVP talk coming from this game for Purdy, Lamar, and CMC, I don’t feel like getting into it tonight. Let the last 2 weeks play out, but it just sounds absurd to think this one game should drastically change the odds on what is supposed to be a season-long performance award. Somehow, we have let it devolve into Super Bowl RINGZ logic where it should go to the player who goes undefeated in Weeks 15-18 no matter how they played. Screw that. The problem is this race has been a mess all year, so it’s no surprise things are finishing like this.

The sky isn’t falling for the 49ers, but yeah, they are beatable.

Everyone is this year.

Raiders at Chiefs: Get Cute, Get Cut Up by These Raiders

Yes, I’m sure I liked it better when the Chiefs were losing 1-score games due to dropped passes or stupid penalties before Patrick Mahomes eventually threw incomplete on a 4th-and-forever to end things.

This was something far worse. This was probably the weirdest, ugliest game of the Mahomes era. You could see it early when the Chiefs got out of the first quarter with minus-18 yards of offense, the worst by any NFL team since 2004.

This game could not have been any different from the Week 12 matchup between these teams, a game with no turnovers and where the Chiefs put the ball in the hands of their best weapons (Isiah Pacheco, Travis Kelce, and Rashee Rice).

Well, the trio of Rice, Kelce, and Pacheco combined on a 74-yard touchdown drive to get the Chiefs on the board after a trick play got Pacheco in the end zone on a 12-yard run. Admittedly, that play had good design. But the Chiefs have a history of running cutesy trick plays against the Raiders, an opponent that is usually among the most outmatched on their schedule, and it can come off as pretty lame like last year when they did their “Snowglobe” play with everyone spinning around before the snap.

On the next snap from scrimmage for the offense after the Pacheco touchdown, they tried a direct snap to him where he then pitched the ball to Mahomes, who couldn’t gather it and the result was a fumble recovered for a touchdown. Brutal and unnecessary backed up in your own end.

To make matters worse, Mahomes floated a lazy pass late to the sideline to Justin Watson on the next snap, and that was intercepted for a touchdown to give the Vegas defense two touchdown returns in 7 seconds to make it 17-7.

That sequence basically lost the game as the passing game took the rest of the day off for the Raiders. Aidan O’Connell had 9 early completions (all on a field goal drive) but did not complete a pass in the final 3 quarters (0-for-10). I’ve never seen anything like it with a team completing all of its passes on one drive in a game. Supposedly it’s the first time since 2000 a team won a game without completing a pass after the first quarter, but I think that’s because the dataset only went back that far. I can’t imagine any other game since the merger has done this.

That was going to be Kansas City’s ticket to pulling off another comeback, but it was just not their day. Harrison Butker missed a 36-yard field goal to end the half, a big miss. Pacheco’s helmet came off twice and he got kicked in the head the second time. He went to get checked on a table on the sideline and the table collapsed on him. The Chiefs looked like a poverty franchise on Christmas.

The Chiefs only touched the ball 4 times in the second half, and that was partly their own fault as they wasted 13 minutes driving only to turn the ball over on downs in Vegas territory.

By the time the offense finally got another drive in the end zone with 2:42 left to make it 20-14, they were basically in 3-and-out or bust mode for the defense. You would think the defense would sell out to stop the run, but the Raiders had no problem finding running lanes for Zamir White, and he finished the Chiefs off with runs of 6, 43, and 15 yards to finish with 145 yards.

Mahomes ended up leading the Chiefs with 10 runs for 53 yards. He set that Next Gen Stats era record in Super Bowl 55 when he had 497 scramble yards before throwing or taking a sack against Tampa. Earlier that season, I believe he was a few yards short of that in a 40-32 loss to the Raiders, a loss where the Chiefs were an 11-point home favorite like they were in this game.

I haven’t seen the number from Next Gen Stats yet, but I have to believe the scramble yards had to be even higher in this game. He probably topped 500 as they had him running for his life. Maybe it wasn’t always necessary, but it sure looked like a quarterback out of confidence with an offensive line that was outmatched against the Raiders.

Hats off to Antonio Pierce for adding some real attitude to this defense. The offense barely contributed to the win, but the defense definitely got after it.

As for the Chiefs, I’m not sure what you can say anymore. This one looked like a failure in coaching to prepare the team for a physical game. They tried to play it cute and make nice highlights at home, and the Raiders just punched them in the mouth, and they couldn’t recover in time. It really might have turned out differently without that fumble touchdown. I just don’t get the call there backed up in your own end. Run a normal play to Pacheco. Throw the ball to Kelce down the field. Get Richie James more involved as he actually looked good. MVS is worthless.

Just do something differently because this is clearly not working, and now you can forget about the playoffs running through Arrowhead. But the reality is the Chiefs will be lucky to even get out of the wild card round at this rate.

Giants at Eagles: They Never Make It Easy

I’d be lying if I said I paid much attention to this game. It was 20-3 at halftime, so it looked like the Eagles were going to finally blow a team out, they got Tommy DeVito whacked (benched for Tyrod Taylor), and Boston Scott should have been cruising to a late touchdown to hit some fun bets.

But that didn’t happen. Scott fumbled a kickoff to start the third, setting up a short field touchdown for the Giants, and they later scored a pick-6 to make it 20-18. But the Eagles had much better offensive flow with Dallas Goedert finally used properly, a good ground attack, and Jalen Hurts still automatic on those sneaks.

But that defense is still unreliable, and this was a 1-score game after they allowed a 69-yard touchdown pass to Darius Slayton. Tyrod had to go 75 yards in 70 seconds and get a 2-point conversion just to force overtime. But he did get to the Philadelphia 26 before holding the ball forever on the final snap before finally throwing a game-ending interception in the end zone to help the Eagles escape with the 33-25 win.

It might not be a game that sells anyone on the Eagles being the top team in the NFC again, but it keeps them in line to win the division.

Cowboys at Dolphins: Paper Tiger Bowl Goes to Miami

These teams are really a perfect matchup for each other as they only bring their A game if the opponent isn’t an A-caliber team, and where the game is played matters too. Yeah, they can drop 45 points on the Commanders, and Tyreek Hill does this cool crouching thing now, but look what happens when you put a real opponent in front of them.

The Cowboys and Dolphins came into Week 16 with the most points scored this year and yet it was a struggle for both to reach 20 points in this game.

Dallas is going to finish this regular season with an 0-4 record on the road against winning teams (1-7 in its last 8 such games going back to 2022), a bad sign for its postseason prospects as a likely wild card team again.

I don’t want to say Dallas lost this game on the opening drive, but it is so hard to make up for wasting half a quarter if you fumble at the 1-yard line. Dallas only had 8 possessions in the game and that was one of them. Just an awful turnover, getting cute with a handoff to the fullback who had 6 touches all season before they tried to give him 4 on the opening drive. It was first down too. Give it to an experienced ball carrier like Tony Pollard. It once again led to Dak Prescott not establishing a real rhythm for the game as he had just 6 completions more than 35 minutes into the game.

This team simply cannot control games on the road against the good teams. We have to hear Dak’s “yeah, here we go!” as the loudest person in the stadium when the Cowboys are at home, but on the road, this offense shrinks, and the defense doesn’t impress either.

Tua Tagovailoa’s quick release didn’t leave many opportunities for the Dallas defense. They got a little lucky too as you can see the skill players were a bit banged up for Miami, including Jaylen Waddle who only had a 50-yard catch on the opening drive. Raheem Mostert left injured at one point, and we know Hill was just coming back from the ankle injury.

Beyond the fumble on the opening drive that was the only turnover in the game, Dallas also lost this one at the end of each half. Miami scored a touchdown before halftime and managed the clock perfectly on the final drive to make sure the Cowboys had no time left after taking the lead.

There was a lot of settling for field goals in this one, and the Dolphins did find a way to blow a 9-point lead in the fourth quarter. It looked like Dallas might fail in the red zone again in a 19-13 game, but they got their choice of defensive pass interference flags on the Dolphins on a 4th-and-4, which felt like a make-up call for the missed grab of CeeDee Lamb’s pants on an earlier down.

Two plays after an awful sack took the ball from the 1 to the 8, Prescott found Brandin Cooks for a nice touchdown. It wound up being Dallas’ final offensive snap, and somehow it was only Cooks’ second catch of the day. Again, how does this offense justify Cooks and Michael Gallup combining for 18 yards? Is targeting 11 players really necessary when you can’t even get your WR2 and WR3 the ball properly?

But props for Miami for taking over with 3:27 left in a 20-19 game and making sure all of the clock was burned before the field goal despite Dallas having four clock stoppages. The running game helped make sure that happened, but not before Hill converted a 3rd-and-3 with a simple YAC play for 10 yards. That play was really the game for Dallas as  Miami likely would have been kicking the field goal with a stop there.

But no stop came, because the Cowboys are just not a serious team on the road in games like this. I can say the same thing about Miami, but this team will have its shot to prove otherwise in Baltimore next week with the No. 1 seed up for grabs.

Lions at Vikings: Party Like It’s 1993

It had been over 40 years (1982) since the Lions went into a season as the outright favorite in their division. It was 30 years (1993) since the last division title for Detroit. With a 30-24 win in Minnesota, the 2023 Lions lived up to the expectations and claimed the NFC North with their 11th win of the season.

The win was largely a celebration of recent draft successes with Amon-Ra St. Brown going over 100 yards and scoring a touchdown, a pair of touchdowns for rookie back Jahmyr Gibbs, and the defense intercepted Nick Mullens four times, including a game-clincher in the final minute with Minnesota 30 yards away from the lead.

It wasn’t the easiest win for the Lions. Justin Jefferson’s 28-yard catch on a 3rd-and-27 is another great addition to his highlight reel, and it looked like it could lead to the go-ahead touchdown. But the constant downfield passing of Mullens, who passed for 411 yards, eventually stung the Vikings again in the worst moment as his pick from the Detroit 30 with 49 seconds left ended the game.

The Vikings (7-8) are in a rough spot after yet another close loss. The defense did a good job in only allowing one 20-yard play to the Lions, but Detroit was methodical and effective in this one. By comparison, the Vikings were volatile and living on the edge all day as every Mullens dropback feels like a turnover opportunity.

But Detroit’s division title is the main story here, and the team still has some games left to earn a top seed and improve its chances to do some damage in the playoffs. Imagine if they renewed their 1950s rivalry with the Cleveland Browns by getting to the first Super Bowl for both teams. Speaking of which…

Browns at Texans: Amari Cooper’s Monster Game

Who knew the key to unlocking Kevin Stefanski’s offense was to add Joe Flacco just a few weeks shy of his 39th birthday? What Cleveland is doing with Flacco continues to defy logic. He just had his third game in a row with at least 42 passes, 311 yards, multiple touchdowns, and a win for the 10-5 Browns.

Not only are they winning with Flacco, but they are leaning on him offensively. The Browns’ backfield only had 27 carries for 58 yards in Houston. Amari Cooper also had arguably the game of his career with 11 catches for 265 yards (franchise record), 2 touchdowns, and a 2-point conversion because the Browns lost their kicker and kept going for 2 in this 36-22 win.

Cooper was sensational from the first snap of the game when he hauled in a 53-yard bomb, a sign of things to come. Meanwhile, Houston’s offense looked lost without C.J. Stroud, and Davis Mills ended up replacing starter Case Keenum in a comeback effort that never got too deep. The Browns led 36-7 at one point.

I kind of joked earlier in the week about Flacco going into Canton if he gets a ring out of this season, but this is some really interesting stuff in Cleveland. You have a great defense that can win it all, you have a team that’s already beat the Ravens and 49ers, the current No. 1 seeds, and now you have a quarterback who already has led one of the most improbable Super Bowl runs in NFL history.

And let me repeat, they already beat the 49ers and Ravens with marginal quarterback play in those games earlier this season, so that silences the schedule argument for what they’ve done with Flacco the last month.

This could end horribly in the wild card round for all we know, but if the Browns keep playing like this, they are a team we have to take seriously. And wouldn’t that be a hell of a lot more fun and easier to do with this Flacco story than if this was Deshaun Watson thriving?

Jaguars at Buccaneers: Pirate Ship vs. Sinking Ship

Well, I was very wrong about this one. I thought the Jaguars, who ended up being favored after it was reported Trevor Lawrence would start, would end their 3-game losing streak by winning the turnover battle and throwing some cold water on this Baker Mayfield hot streak, which was largely fueled against the sisters of the poor in the NFC.

But as it turns out, Lawrence was the turnover machine in this game and probably should have been sidelined earlier than he was before yet another injury (shoulder) was added to his 2023 season. Lawrence turned it over 3 times and the Buccaneers turned them all into touchdown drives to build a 27-0 lead early in the third quarter.

The Bucs didn’t even run the ball effectively (36 carries for 70 yards), but it didn’t matter as Mayfield avoided turnovers again and Mike Evans had 2 more touchdowns. By the time Lawrence was finally taken out, the game was already decided. C.J. Beathard mopped up and Calvin Ridley caught a pair of touchdowns after it was 30-0.

Tampa is thriving as the playoffs inch closer and the Jaguars (8-7) are in danger of making it two years in a row where the AFC South leader completely falls apart. The Titans were 7-3 last year before losing out, which the Jaguars benefitted from, and Jacksonville was 8-3 after winning in Houston just a month ago.

Look at them now.

Seahawks at Titans: Just What Pete Carroll’s Heart Needed, Another Nail-Biter

The Titans are a tough out, especially at home, and you knew Derrick Henry would step up after he had 10 yards on 20 touches last week, a historically-bad game. I liked the Titans in this game because of Seattle’s short week and long trip after an emotional win, possible rust for Geno Smith coming back, and Ryan Tannehill starting actually felt like a possible advantage instead of a downgrade from rookie Will Levis, who has problems sustaining drives.

Well, Henry no doubt showed up with 99 scrimmage yards, a touchdown run, and an ugly touchdown pass that still worked. Tannehill didn’t do a lot and took 6 sacks, several of a very untimely fashion, but he didn’t have any turnovers.

It looked like the Titans were going to steal this one after a 15-play, 75-yard touchdown drive consumed almost 9 minutes and was the perfect answer to D.K. Metcalf’s impressive touchdown catch to start the quarter. The Titans led 17-13 and basically left Seattle with one last drive.

This has not been Geno Smith’s spot in his career, but he ended up leading his third fourth-quarter comeback win of 2023 after he came into the season with 5 comebacks in his whole career. He kept the game alive with a 3rd-and-14 conversion to Jaxon Smith-Njigba for 18 yards, the rookie making a huge play once again. Even if he didn’t catch it, defensive holding on the Titans would have brought a fresh set of downs.

A 22-yard flag for defensive pass interference put the ball at the 5, and Smith found rarely used tight end Colby Parkinson for the touchdown with 57 seconds left. Tannehill had enough time with one timeout to set up a field goal, but starting the drive with a sack was a killer, then he ended up taking another one from the 50. I swear quarterbacks have given up on spiking the ball this year, because instead of doing that, the Titans ran another play and the receiver’s momentum was stopped in bounds, allowing the clock to run out on the Titans.

I still think this Seattle team, the current No. 7 seed with an 8-7 record, is a waste of a playoff spot this year. But when you look at the list of teams they are competing with (Vikings, Falcons, Packers, and Saints), maybe they are the best option to get there. And Detroit will want no part of them in a 7-2 matchup should that happen given the results of the last two meetings in Detroit.

Colts at Falcons: The Letdown

I guess the Colts were due for an offensive letdown, but you wouldn’t have guessed this game after they took the opening kickoff and drove 75 yards for a touchdown. But that would be the only trip to the end zone as the offensive line was dominated with Gardner Minshew taking 6 sacks, and Jonathan Taylor returned this week but only had 43 yards on 18 carries.

With Michael Pittman Jr. out, you see the limitations in this receiving corps that relied so heavily on him. While the Colts struggled, the Falcons with Tayler Heinicke at quarterback finally utilized their best players as Kyle Pitts had a 24-yard touchdown and Bijan Robinson had 122 yards from scrimmage.

Just as importantly, the Falcons avoided any turnovers this week, snapping a 19-game streak for the Colts for games with at least 1 takeaway. No takeaways, no run game, no Pittman catches, and just not enough points for Indy in a 29-10 loss that hurts their playoff chances as another one of the 8-7 teams in the AFC.

Commanders at Jets: Frankly, Both Coaches Should Go

There were reports swirling before the game that Jets coach Robert Saleh was safe for 2024. He probably should be given the Aaron Rodgers situation this year, but man did he almost blow a 20-point lead right after that report that certainly would justify moving on with someone else.

Of course, Ron Rivera seems like he’s got a foot out the door already on the Washington side. They couldn’t have started this game much worse than they did. A tipped pick, a blocked punt, a muffed kickoff, and a bad punt led to the Jets leading 17-0 not even 6 minutes into the game.

Are you kidding me? But maybe that’s also a reason why there was a major comeback attempt here, because it’s not like the Jets were earning the lead with long drives or impressive offense behind quarterback Trevor Siemian.

But for the second week in a row, it was a quarterback change for Washington that sparked a near epic comeback with Jacoby Brissett replacing Sam Howell. It was an awful game for Howell, who finished 6-of-22 for 56 yards and 2 interceptions. Brissett sparked the offense as he did against the Rams last week, and he was 10-of-13 for 100 yards and a touchdown.

Brissett led an 83-yard touchdown drive that finally erased the 20-point lead for the Commanders with 4:52 left, but the job was not finished. By throwing 3 straight incompletions after a 1st-and-20 situation, Siemian exhibited some “suck quickly” strategy that Tom Brady once pulled off against the 2013 Saints. Had Siemian completed some passes there and used more clock before ultimately turning the ball back to the Commanders, this one could have ended differently.

But the Jets had all their timeouts to get the ball back, and Washington conceded with three straight basic runs and a punt. The Jets had the ball back 26 seconds after giving it up. All it took was 2 first downs to get into range for Greg Zuerlein, who was good enough on a 54-yard field goal with 5 seconds left to take a 30-28 lead. The Commanders couldn’t even get their lateral going to end it.

I had the Commanders (+3) as my upset pick and for the Jets to not crack 20 points against the worst scoring defense in the league. That start just killed this one for Washington, and even after the effort to come back, they still blew it by being so conservative and playing right into the Jets’ hands.

Both teams cleaning house wouldn’t be a bad idea.

Packers at Panthers: Is It Hope for Bryce Young or Impending Pink Slip for Joe Barry?

Finally, a Week 16 game I can say I nailed right down to Bryce Young having his best game of the season, the Panthers (+4) covering, and Green Bay still getting the close win on the road.

We know the Panthers struggle in the fourth quarter, but they erased a 14-point deficit with relative ease to tie this game at 30. Even after the Packers regained the lead on a field goal and left Young with 19 seconds, he still found two open receivers for 44 more yards and came up one second shy of getting the spike off in time to set up the game-tying field goal for overtime. Just one more second would have been enough for a 49-yard field goal by Eddy Pineiro, but he probably would have missed it given he already missed two extra points in the game.

If you’re a Green Bay fan, you’re satisfied with the performance of Jordan Love and the offense in a balanced attack and game where they put up 33 on the road. But you have to be pulling your hair out over defensive coordinator Joe Barry, who basically lives on dropped passes and turnovers to not give up 30 or 40 points every week. Young had his first 300-yard passing game after throwing for 180 looked like a struggle the last month for him. He joins Tommy DeVito as a struggling rookie to have his brightest moment against this defense in the last month.

I can’t wait to see what this defense does against Nick Mullens next week. At least he is charitable with turnovers, but he might have a 500-yard game indoors.

But if you’re a Carolina fan, you have to at least be encouraged that Young took advantage of a favorable matchup and made some good throws and led a productive offense. Some glimmers of hope in such a bleak season from the Panthers.

Cardinals at Bears: Tank You Very Much

It was 21-0 Chicago halfway through the second quarter before the Cardinals finally woke up. The good news is a 21-0 lead for Justin Fields and Matt Eberflus is not the same as a 21-0 lead for a normal team.

Sure enough, the Cardinals got back in it after Fields threw a horrible interception in the red zone with a 24-10 lead with 10:22 left. It was on first down too, so he could have literally ran the ball three times, kicked a field goal, and the Bears would have had a 3-score lead with 8 minutes left. Just terrible lack of awareness but also par for the course for this quarterback and team.

Kyler Murray turned that into a touchdown drive, the 2-point conversion failed, but the Bears went 3-and-out. So, we had a 24-16 game with 4:21 left, but Murray needed to drive 91 yards. The drive stalled at the Arizona 27, but instead of punting on 4th-and-6 with 3:00 left, the Cardinals went for it. Murray threw deep, the receiver fell down, no flag necessary, and that was basically game over right there with the Bears taking over in field goal range. Even they couldn’t screw this one up and they added a field goal to take a 27-16 lead with 1:02 left. Forget about it at that point.

Was that a subtle way of tanking the game for the now 3-12 Cardinals? Keep in mind Chicago is a team with heavy draft capital thanks to the Carolina trade involving last year’s No. 1 pick. It just seemed like such an asinine call with four clock stoppages left for Arizona, and they were facing one of the worst fourth-quarter closing time teams in NFL history. Any team should be punting in that situation, because if you don’t get the 4th-and-6 (chances are you won’t), it’s game over with the opponent in field goal range.

Just thought that was an odd call with some possible ulterior motives in an otherwise forgettable game.

Patriots at Broncos: Goodnight, Sweet Prince Payton

We’ll see what happens the rest of the way, but there is a good chance Mike Tomlin’s Steelers and Sean Payton’s Broncos will watch the playoffs on TV with the rest of us after losing as big home favorites to Bill Belichick’s Patriots with Bailey Zappe at quarterback.

Go figure, an awful matchup on paper lived up to its low expectations for one half with Denver leading 7-3, and then a real game broke out and it ended up being one of the most entertaining island games (or halves) of the year.

The third quarter was just a comedy of errors by Denver with Russell Wilson taking 4 sacks, Marvin Mims muffing a kick return for a New England touchdown just 8 seconds after a Mike Gesicki touchdown catch from Zappe.

All of a sudden, the Broncos were down 23-7 going into the fourth quarter of a must-win home game they were a 7.5-point favorite for. To their credit, they pulled off the fabled “8+8” comeback to tie the game with 2:53 left. Throw in a quick 3-and-out by New England combined with a bad penalty leading to a re-kick that cost the team 19 yards, and it suddenly looked like we’d get a Denver win in regulation with the ball at their 39 and 1:42 left.

I’m not going to crucify starting a 2-minute drill with a pass to the running back as so many successes in NFL history have done just that. But a 3-yard loss to Samaje Perine set the tone for the rest of the drive, and it was another 3-and-out. The Patriots got it back with 58 seconds left at their 19 and decided to run it before Denver made the likely mistake of calling timeout.

Look, I get you can do great things in limited time, but this game was tied. New England looked content for overtime, and this might have even been the rare game where going on defense first in OT would have been the right call. Make them earn it on a long field.

But by Payton calling timeout, I think Belichick called his bluff and the Patriots snuck in a great, unexpected throw down the field on 3rd-and-3 that was caught for 27 yards by DeVante Parker. Should have let them play for OT, Sean.

After a couple of short completions and a spike, the Patriots were ready to try a 56-yard field goal for the win. Rookie kicker Chad Ryland is someone I have repeatedly said is a sign of how bad player evaluation has gotten in New England under Belichick the GM’s watch. This kicker has sucked all year and he even missed an extra point and a 47-yard field goal in this game. You might recall he missed a 35-yard field goal against the Giants that would have sent the game to overtime instead of a 10-7 loss.

Lower stakes on this one since the game would have gone to overtime with a miss, and he wasn’t expected to make it. But maybe that helped him, because he nailed it right down the middle from 56 yards out to win this one. Wilson tried a Hail Mary from his own 27, but no one was getting that ball to the end zone.

The Broncos (7-8) are pretty screwed for the playoffs at this point, but there’s a reason genuinely good teams almost never start 1-5.

The Patriots really don’t benefit at all from the win, but it is amusing to know that Belichick can still get one over Tomlin and Payton with Zappe as his guy. That also goes down as Zappe’s first game-winning drive, a rarity in New England these days.

Truly a Christmas miracle.

Next week: Week 17 presents another opportunity with a special Saturday night game for the Cowboys to show they can beat a good team, and at least this one is at home. Also a big chance for the Lions to flex some muscles and stay in the race for that No. 1 or No. 2 seed.

Speaking of top two seeds, Miami at Baltimore is a huge game for the AFC, and that’s in an unusual 1 p.m. spot. Ravens need to avenge that blown 21-point lead last year. Bucs can put the clamps on the Saints for the NFC South. The 49ers should score at least 49 points against Washington. Pittsburgh-Seattle has some wild card implications for both conferences, and no, I don’t envy Mike Tomin’s quarterback decision for that one. Packers at Vikings on Sunday night to end 2023, a year to which I say good riddance to.

NFL Stat Oddity: Week 15

~ Scott ~ 5 Comments

Just another strange week in the NFL in the 2023 season. It started with the end of the Brandon Staley era in Los Angeles after the Raiders scored 63 points. One of the best halves of the year was played between Nick Mullens and Jake Browning in Cincinnati. There were multiple eventful Hail Mary attempts in Cleveland. The game of the week was a 21-point blowout.

All that just to tell us the 49ers are the best team in the league, and we’ll see if the Ravens have anything to say about that next week. But that’s next week.

This week is still going with MNF to come, but we have only had 4 games with a comeback opportunity. That would tie the lowest mark in the 13 seasons I’ve been doing this weekly, and it would be the lowest in a week where all 32 teams played. We had four teams win a game after trailing by double digits, which is a high number, but just not much drama late in games.

I would be shocked if Monday night did not get this week up to 5 opportunities given it’s Pete Carroll’s Seahawks on a Monday night, the 2023 Eagles are going to be there, and maybe a Flu Game for Jalen Hurts (questionable with illness).

I’m not going to cover the Saturday tripleheader below, because I think it was pretty self-explanatory. The games got progressively more one-sided as the day went on with Detroit blowing the doors off the Broncos, making them look like the team that started 1-5 and gave up 70 points in Miami. See what happens when Detroit protects the ball and the Broncos aren’t feasting on turnovers?

The Steelers blew a 13-point lead (5th time under Mike Tomlin) and still went on to lose by 13-plus points for only the second time in franchise history. Tomlin’s decision to punt, down 11 points, with one of the best kickers in the league was another low point for him.

The sloppy first half of Vikings-Bengals actually paved the way for one of the best finishes of the season in overtime. Jake Browning now has as many 7-point comeback wins in the fourth quarter as Joe Burrow in his career (2). Nick Mullens threw arguably the funniest interception of the season, but it was also the 6th game this season where both quarterbacks passed for over 300 yards and multiple touchdown passes:

Tee Higgins had one of the best plays of the year, showing the awareness at the goal line and why he would be a No. 1 wideout on most teams. But that whole half was a good example of what can happen when quarterbacks, even backups like Mullens and Browning, give their great receiving talent chances to make plays.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Cowboys at Bills: Familiar Tune for Dallas, New Hit for Buffalo

I need to stop putting high expectations on these big matchups this year. If Mike McCarthy didn’t put his starters back in facing a 31-3 deficit, this might have ended with the Cowboys failing to score a touchdown and neither starting quarterback passing for 100 yards. Yeah, there was rain, but this game was pain.

There are certainly more important things than the MVP award, but I think Dak Prescott just threw it away this year after doing the only thing he couldn’t do: have a total dud performance. Prescott threw for 43 yards in the first half and never looked comfortable, running into a sack on an early third down. The Cowboys have some explaining to do in how the offense can look so unstoppable at home and pedestrian on the road. Only a low-pressure drive, down 31-3, got the offense into the end zone with the game out of reach.

Throw in some early 15-yard roughing penalties on the Cowboys, and this was quickly a 14-0 game when it could have only been 3-0 and maybe the offense could have figured things out. But the Cowboys took themselves out of this one early and never recovered, and that’s been a theme in their big losses under McCarthy. That’s why this team going on the road in the playoffs every round is a big problem.

As for Buffalo, we have gotten so used to the Bills putting the ball in Josh Allen’s hands in big games since 2020 to the point where they don’t even try to run the ball with their running backs. If there is any clear difference in the offense since Ken Dorsey was fired as the offensive coordinator, it would be the impact of running back James Cook.

He had the best game of his career Sunday, making this the least Josh Allen game ever as the quarterback only threw for 94 yards on 15 passes. He even finished with just 8 runs for 24 yards and another touchdown run. But this was the Cook show with 25 carries for 179 yards, a touchdown on the ground, and 42 receiving yards and a great touchdown grab.

Cook did anything he wanted to this defense in the rain, which was a good strategy for sure. But it was still surprising to see Allen throw just 15 passes, or for Dalton Kincaid to have multiple drops at tight end. This was the least the passing game had to do for Buffalo in a game in years.

I’m not sold this is going to be the strategy for Buffalo moving forward, but it did lead to 28 first downs and 31 points against a solid defense. Those early penalties did help extend drives that otherwise end with a field goal attempt and punt, but the Bills moved the ball well and only had 6 possessions with Allen before calling off the dogs in the fourth quarter.

It was just nice to see Buffalo try something different in a big game and make it work. It was disheartening to see Dallas falter in familiar fashion. I flirted in the summer with this being my Super Bowl matchup, but if I had to pick one of these teams to go the distance right now, I’m going with Buffalo, which is still only the No. 9 seed as things currently stand.

But Buffalo will be one of the most “team you don’t want to face in January” teams in years. The Cowboys could lose to Baker Mayfield in the wild card round at this point if this is how they are going to continue playing in big road games.

Ravens at Jaguars: Not a Top Tier Team in Jacksonville

Sunday night could have been a really good game, but Jacksonville’s shortcomings and the way the Ravens control games this year made for a dud of a finish. Once the Ravens scored a touchdown to start the fourth quarter and take a 17-7 lead, the life was sucked out of this one with Jacksonville’s 3-and-out. The Ravens added a field goal, Trevor Lawrence was strip-sacked, the Ravens added another field goal (23-7), and Jacksonville eventually turned it over on downs in the red zone with 3:19 left.

But what a crazy first half. The Jaguars repeatedly moved the ball into scoring territory, but they missed a pair of long field goals, Lawrence flat out fumbled the ball in the open field on a scramble, and he botched the end of the half by not spiking the ball and throwing a pass in bounds inside the 5-yard line to see the clock expire with the Jaguars out of timeouts. Major mistake.

But a game like this does continue to show the flaws in Jacksonville’s roster, especially with Chrisitan Kirk out injured. The Jaguars only scored 9 points against the Chiefs, 3 points against the 49ers, and now 7 points against the Ravens – three Super Bowl contenders that they got to host at home this year and lost to.

Lawrence’s accuracy is too inconsistent, Calvin Ridley (39 yards on 12 targets) hasn’t been the No. 1 stud we thought he could be, and the running game with Travis Etienne just hasn’t been there most of the year.

As for the Ravens, they are just a lot to deal with given Lamar Jackson’s unique skills. He only passed for 171 yards in this game, but he made some key extended plays, and he ran for 97 yards on the way to the team rushing for 251 yards.

The Jaguars are in real danger of losing the AFC South title now that the Colts and Texans are all 8-6. But it feels like this team is going to be limited in playoff success this year regardless of where it finishes in the regular season.

With Baltimore, we’ll see the ultimate test when they travel to San Francisco next Monday night.

Chiefs at Patriots: They Still Haven’t Cut Toney?

As far as Kansas City games go in 2023, this 27-17 win in New England was tame. But they may have been in trouble if they were playing a better team than the Patriots, who were 2-of-12 on third down.

The Chiefs lost another turnover battle (2-1) thanks to a couple of interceptions thrown by Patrick Mahomes on passes that went to his receivers first before they were taken away. The egregious one was yet another play by Kadarius Toney that looked just like his Week 1 drop-to-pick against the Lions. At least this one didn’t get returned for a touchdown, but it did set up the Patriots on a short field for their last touchdown drive to make the game 27-17. Toney just has to go. It is ridiculous to keep putting him on the field when his 4 targets resulted in 5 yards and that turnover.

Travis Kelce was held to 28 yards, but this was a big game for CEH, who had to carry the load with Isiah Pacheco out again. His 20-yard run was the only rushing play of note for the Chiefs, but CEH had a strong receiving game with 64 yards and a very nice touchdown grab.

We’ll see how the Chiefs fare at home against the Raiders next week after Vegas scored 63 points on the Chargers largely by feasting on turnovers. The Chiefs were dying to cough up the obligatory fumble in this game, so they better start protecting that ball better because you’re not going to play the likes of Bailey Zappe and Aidan O’Connell in the playoffs.

Texans at Titans: Luv Ya Blue (No Tie)

It sure did not look like the Texans showed up to play after allowing a big opening touchdown drive by rookie Will Levis, and then Case Keenum threw a pick-six on a play that looked like a new quarterback out of sync with his players. The Texans trailed 13-0 at that point while the Oilers Titans were thriving in their Houston throwback uniforms, which apparently ticked off some of the natives in Texas this week.

But Keenum settled down and the Texans basically beat the Titans at their own game. Devin Singletary rushed for 121 yards while Derrick Henry, the Houston Killer, was held to 9 yards on 16 carries. Levis was pummeled and sacked 7 times.

Keenum got away with one of the dumbest, most dangerous passes of the season that Dalton Schultz somehow turned into a catch, and the Texans forced the game with a touchdown to Noah Brown, who stepped up with Nico Collins out.

After 7 straight scoreless drives and the game getting late into overtime, it really looked like a tie was inevitable, something this 2023 season has avoided so far. When Singletary’s 34-yard touchdown run was wiped away for holding, it really felt like we were going to get a god damn tie.

But much love to returning kicker Ka’imi Fairbairn for making a 54-yard field goal to give the Texans a 19-16 win and avoid that tie. We now have a 3-way tie at 8-6 in the AFC South. That’s the only kind of tie I want to see in the NFL.

49ers at Cardinals: Is San Francisco Inevitable?

It was only Arizona, but San Francisco’s 45-29 win to complete the sweep and clinch the NFC West was the team’s 6th-straight win by at least 12 points, something that’s only been done 23 times now.

In the salary cap era, only the 1996 Packers, 1999 Rams (twice), 2005 Colts, 2007 Patriots, and 2009 Saints have had a streak this long before these 49ers. Those are historic teams with three of them winning the Super Bowl.

Brock Purdy threw 4 more touchdown passes and has taken a considerable lead over Dak Prescott in QBR while adding to his other league-leading efficiency stats. He is the MVP favorite now with roughly -150 odds after Dak Prescott’s dud in Buffalo. Deebo Samuel scored another pair of touchdowns and Christian McCaffrey put in 3 more. Both were left completely wide open on one of their touchdowns, which is crazy to think could happen.

Even in a game where Arizona piled up 234 rushing yards, it never really felt like the Cardinals had much of a chance. In fact, the Cardinals are the first home team in NFL history to score at least 29 points and rush for at least 200 yards and lose by more than 14 points.

The 49ers have really been the NFL’s best team since Purdy took over at quarterback, and injuries have been the main thing to hold them back in their losses in that time. We’ll see how they look next Monday night at home against the top-seeded Ravens. But if it’s anything like the streak the 49ers have been on, the Super Bowl odds are about to get even better for this juggernaut.

In a league lacking in consistency, the inevitably of the 49ers is impressive.

Bears at Browns: Hail Flacco

This felt like one of those fluky Chicago games from one of their playoff seasons where they get a tipped ball for a pick-6 after an earlier pick set them up for a 1-yard touchdown drive.

Basically, this game was a good example of why the Cleveland defense does not have a better ranking in points allowed, because the Chicago offense barely contributed more than 3 points to this score. Joe Flacco got a little loose with the ball in his third start for the team and was intercepted 3 times.

But against a tough run defense like Chicago that held the Browns to 17 carries for 30 yards, you need a quarterback to hang in there and pass on them. Flacco can still do that as he put the ball up 44 more times in this one for 374 yards.

Flacco passed for 212 yards in the fourth quarter alone as the Browns have a formidable offense with Amari Cooper and tight end David Njoku. But the Bears are also one of the great fourth-quarter collapse teams in the league, and you could feel that 17-7 lead wasn’t going to hold up for Matt Eberflus. Hell, the first play of the quarter was Justin Fields taking a sack on a 4th-and-1.

Flacco eventually led the team back with a 51-yard touchdown threaded in there to Cooper, who did the rest after the catch. The defense forced a quick 3-and-out, and Flacco found Njoku for gains of 31 and 34 yards to set up a go-ahead field goal with 32 seconds left.

That is barely enough time for Chicago to get into range, but kicking was probably going to be difficult on this day. Eventually, they settled for the Hail Mary finish after already getting a crack at it to end the first half with Fields’ pass intercepted in the end zone.

This one was quite the adventure with Darnell Mooney having a real shot at it on the ground, but the ball left his hands, and he kicked it to a defender for another interception in one of the wildest finishes we’ve seen this year.

This is the kind of ending we are used to seeing go against Cleveland, but not this year. At 9-5, the Browns have clinched a second winning season under Kevin Stefanski, and they are in position for the No. 5 seed. That might be Coach of the Year material for the 2020 winner of the award.

Buccaneers at Packers: Refreshing to See Some Great QB Play in Tampa…

There was a time when a Florida team winning at Lambeau Field in December would have been a huge headline, but it was only 42 degrees, and the Packers haven’t had the best week after losing to Tommy DeVito and the Giants on Monday night.

This was also the third year in a row that Baker Mayfield played in Lambeau in December, and with his third different team, he was not walking away a loser again. In fact, he had arguably the best game of his career with 381 yards, 4 touchdowns, and a perfect 158.3 passer rating. He did take 5 sacks and lose a fumble as the pass rush was on him early, but the passes Baker got off, he was slicing and dicing the Packers down the seams.

Every time the Packers pulled within a score in the second half, Baker had an answer. His 52-yard touchdown pass to ice it to David Moore almost ended in disaster with the receiver foolishly releasing the ball close to the goal line. But the touchdown stood and Green Bay trailed 34-20.

It was the sixth time this season the Buccaneers (7-7) scored at least 20 offensive points on the road. They didn’t do it even once in 2022.

Falcons at Panthers: We Might Need to Get Arthur Smith Up Out of There

I kind of love this stat: Carolina is 2-12 but has yet to run a single play with a fourth-quarter lead this season. Both wins have come on field goals on the final snap of the game. They did it to Houston in Week 8 and now again to the Falcons for the second year in the rain in a 9-7 barnburner.

I knew this game was trouble when the weather reports came out, so I largely avoided any bets on it. You just can’t trust the Falcons, but they probably should have won this one.

Atlanta, leading 7-3, was running a give-up play to Bijan Robinson on a 3rd-and-10, and he ended up fumbling, giving the Panthers the ball at the Atlanta 21 as the game was moving to the fourth quarter. The Panthers stalled but were right to kick the field goal to make it 7-6. You just can’t trust the Bryce Young-led offense to convert a 4th-and-4 from the 7, keeping it a 7-6 game would likely keep Atlanta in conservative mode instead of playing from behind, and you can just win on a field goal. Oh yeah, it’s also the Falcons, the NFC’s version of the Chargers.

The defense wasn’t holding up its end of the bargain with Atlanta driving into the red zone, but that’s when Desmond Ridder threw a pass that his season, if not his time in Atlanta, may be remembered best for:

https://twitter.com/tankathon/status/1736487658442916294/video/1

What the hell was that? Point shaving? Anything even remotely conservative should lead to a field goal and 10-6 lead with under half a quarter left, making the Panthers think touchdown or bust. Just an atrocious decision that could cost this team the playoffs.

Young still had to drive his offense from the 5 in the rain, but he only needed to set up a short field goal for a win. He got the job done with one of his only good drives all season, moving the ball 90 yards on 17 plays, mostly through his arm. The Falcons burned all their timeouts and still couldn’t stop Chuba Hubbard on a 3rd-and-3 run, allowing for the 23-yard field goal by Eddie Pineiro to be the final snap of regulation.

He made the kick and for the second time this season, the Panthers earned a win on the last play. It was the first time since October 21, 2018 that the Panthers won a game after trailing by more than 1 point in the fourth quarter.

Of course, it had to be at the expense of the Falcons.

Giants at Saints: [Insert Somehow Still Acceptable Derogatory Reference About Italians]

I think Tommy DeVito needs about 2 more wins before his agent can get Adrien Brody to play him in a movie. But it’s not going to happen like this. The Giants scored two field goals in New Orleans, including one from 56 yards away that saw the kicker get injured in the process. DeVito also had to leave the game temporarily for a concussion check, but he returned to end up in more pain as he took 7 sacks.

I said it was a miracle that the Packers did not sack him once on Monday night, because his sack rate is abysmal and should be over 20% again. Saquon Barkley also had his worst game in a while with 14 yards on 9 carries as the Saints just dominated up front. Meanwhile, Derek Carr was kept clean and finished 23-of-28 for 218 yards and 3 touchdowns, somehow playing his best game without the services of Chris Olave.

In all, a pretty bland 24-6 win. No spicy meatballs for the Paisan.

Commanders at Rams: Is There a Coaching Staff in Washington?

We know Jack Del Rio’s dusty ass was fired during the season, but is there even a coaching staff left in Washington? People really want Eric Bieniemy to be a head coach, and sure, it’s tough to not want a coordinator who sees his offense go into halftime scoreless.

But then I had to love how Cooper Kupp was left wide open on a 62-yard touchdown to start the second half. Gotta love when a defensive back is peeking 20+ yards into the backfield as if keeping an eye on Matthew Stafford from that distance while Kupp blows past you is going to do anything.

Then the Commanders, down 28-7, seemed to pull the plug a little early on Sam Howell with 9:05 left, but maybe it was because of the pick he threw on his last play. But Jacoby Brissett entered the game and this almost turned into some 2005 Mark Brunell to Santana Moss kind of batshit craziness. Terry McLaurin caught a 29-yard touchdown, then it looked like he had a score from 49 yards out with 4:47 left, but he was down at the 1.

Remember when Andy Reid was known for horrible clock management? Bieniemy must have made him proud as it took 3 minutes and 1 second over 9 snaps for the Commanders to finally score the touchdown to make it a one-possession game:

I can’t believe that sequence was real life. This could have very well been a game with a realistic 21-point comeback there if they got that score much quicker. Then Ron Rivera must not have watched the Titans on Monday night, because he botched not going for 2 here. The extra point was blocked, fittingly, and it was still 28-20 anyway with 1:46 left.

The Commanders did have all of their timeouts, but maybe they would have gotten the ball back if they didn’t take an eternity to score from the 1. This is another team that needs major housecleaning in the offseason.

Jets at Dolphins: Just End the Season

Seriously, we’ve seen enough of the 2023 Jets. They have been eliminated from the playoffs after losing 30-0 to a Miami team that didn’t have Tyreek Hill. The Jets had 80 net passing yards on 43 pass plays due to sacks. Maybe that will end this silly talk of Aaron Rodgers returning from a torn Achilles, because why would anyone even want to play behind this line? They still can’t run block either, finishing with 12 carries for 23 yards.

The Jets join the 2018 Redskins (lost 24-0 vs. Eagles) and 1999 Browns (lost 43-0 vs. Steelers) as the only teams since 1990 to not pass for more than 80 net yards and not rush for more than 25 yards in the same game.

Next week: Seven island games in one week? The NFL really wants to take over our Christmas with TNF, a Saturday doubleheader, a normal Sunday lineup, and a Monday tripleheader. Not many games are appealing either, but TNF is actually legit with seeing how Derek Carr will fare in a pseudo playoff game against the Rams. There’s also the crazy possibility of Mike Tomlin’s final home game if things go off the rails here the rest of the way. Maybe Dallas will fare better in Miami’s weather, but yikes, talk about two teams who don’t beat the good teams this year, especially on the road. The highlight of the week is clearly the finale on MNF with Ravens-49ers, a possible battle of No. 1 seeds, a possible Super Bowl preview for Christmas.

NFL Stat Oddity: Week 14

~ Scott ~ 6 Comments

Week 14 in the NFL was a lot to take in. Or a little if you were caught watching either of the two games that were scoreless at halftime. Seriously, we go 4 years without a scoreless first half and get two in one afternoon? That second one almost went the distance to 0-0 in regulation but thank God for Nick Mullens (said no one ever).

The Cowboys blew out the Eagles, who lost back-to-back games against their main NFC contenders by 20 points. Sounds pretty 2022 Vikings to me.

The Bills won another game in Kansas City after an egregious offside penalty on the offense wiped out one of the coolest, game-winning type of plays you’ll ever see. But that doesn’t mean it wasn’t a dumb penalty, Kansas City.

Did offense feel worse than usual this weekend? We still have a MNF doubleheader that does not look good, but there has yet to be a quarterback to post a 75.0 QBR this week. Most weeks have multiple players in the 80s and 90s. The highest was Matthew Stafford (73.4) in a loss in Baltimore. This is so unusual that it hasn’t happened in any week of the regular season since 2006, the first season we have QBR data for. Maybe Tua or Jordan Love puts an end to that tonight, but Monday night shenanigans, the MetLife playing surface, eh, we’ll see.

There were 7 games with a comeback opportunity this week, though for the second time this season, no team came back to win from 10 points down. The Steelers and Chiefs almost did that, but again, we’re seeing arguably the darkest patches of the Mike Tomlin and Andy Reid eras in Pittsburgh and Kansas City. Losing back-to-back home games to 2-10 teams is brutal (and historic), and the Chiefs are on a 2-4 slide and just lost wire-to-wire in back-to-back games for the first time with Mahomes at quarterback.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Bills at Chiefs: Toney, Toney, You Gotta Go

Another week, another Kansas City loss where the Chiefs gave up two early touchdowns, lost the turnover battle, a receiver royally screwed up a lead-changing play, and Patrick Mahomes’ last gasp on 4th-and-long fell incomplete.

Then there’s the latest officiating controversy.

But I don’t think it was that controversial. The irony of it was Kadarius Toney scored the touchdown and it would have been his most memorable play had the schmuck not lined up offsides.

Offensive offsides, who even does that? But before that ending, it was another game where the Chiefs played disappointing, mistake-filled football. They let the Bills dominate early with passes to their running back (James Cook) while Mahomes seemingly can’t throw a screen to CEH without disaster happening like an opening-drive interception in Buffalo territory.

Rashee Rice provided the obligatory fumble late in the third quarter when the Chiefs were driving in a 17-14 game. They did tie the game in the fourth quarter, but a quick 3-and-out with a chance to take the lead wasn’t good, then Josh Allen continued to show why he’s been so successful in Arrowhead with a go-ahead drive for a field goal.

The only problem with that was a total mismanagement of the clock, and you would think Buffalo more than any team would be observant of the clock against the Chiefs. They are 13 seconds away from going 4-0 in this building since 2021. The Bills had a chance to set up the field goal as the final play, but Allen threw 3 low-percentage balls to receivers that all fell incomplete and stopped the clock with the Chiefs keeping 2 timeouts. It made no sense. Even the last throw before the 2-minute warning was barely caught for a 1 yard to run clock.

So, Mahomes had a full 1:54 in a 20-17 game, which is an eternity for him to get a go-ahead touchdown, let alone a field goal. But four plays into a good looking drive, it happened. Mahomes found Travis Kelce over the middle and he somehow had the stones to lateral the ball across the field to Toney, who went the final 24 yards for what should have been a huge go-ahead touchdown and possibly the game-winning score to end Buffalo’s season.

It will go down as an all-time great play that never counted. It was aesthetically pleasing, in a big moment, risky as hell, and a huge reward. But it’s all for naught cause the biggest clown on the roster was lined up offsides.

Is that going to be called 100% of the time on the offense? No, I don’t think so. Is it ever called on the offense? Apparently 11 times this year, so less than once a week. I understand the argument that it was inconsequential to the play, but I also think the strong reaction from the Chiefs, namely Mahomes and Andy Reid, is way overblown. Just don’t line up offsides and it’s not a penalty. How hard is that? Does a veteran really need a warning for this late in the fourth quarter? I could see if he was repeatedly doing it in the game, then the officials should inform him of that. But there’s just no excuse to line up in the wrong spot on a play where the clock wasn’t even running.

Like the other Kansas City drives this year, they fell apart after the big play was not made. Think of the Toney drop against Detroit that could have easily set up a game-winning field goal, the MVS dropped touchdown against the Eagles, the no-call for DPI on MVS against the Packers last week, and now this offsides wiping out a touchdown.

It’s like the Chiefs get so frustrated from these plays that they forget to finish the drive. Namely, the offensive line forgets as the protection turning to dog shit has a lot to do with these drives fizzing out a couple plays later. Mahomes had to throw away passes under pressure, and just like that, it was 4th-and-15. Here we go again.

Mahomes’ arm was hit just as he threw the ball and it came out funny with no chance of ever being caught. Another game over after Mahomes threw incomplete on a 4th-and-10+. That’s happened in all 5 losses this year. It happened in exactly one Kansas City game in 2018-22 and that was Super Bowl 55 with a lopsided score.

The Chiefs are 8-5 and barely hanging onto the No. 3 seed right now. It is looking likely that they will have to play a road playoff game this year. I guess it is possible for the Chiefs to win out (12-5), then hope Miami loses multiple games to Cowboys/Ravens/Bills to finish with a No. 2 seed or better. Then they’d have to hope No. 1 (Baltimore) chokes in the divisional round, which isn’t impossible of course. But it’s not looking good. At this point, the Chiefs might get shut down by New England and lose to Bailey Zappe next week. Jake Browning with the Bengals is a possibility too.

Mahomes’ strong reaction to the ending was weird to me. It almost felt like he was letting out years of frustration with calls like this, maybe even going back to the Dee Ford offsides in the 2018 AFC Championship Game loss, another rare offsides call that had nothing to do with the play at hand. Hard to think of any team in between 2018-23 with bigger offsides penalties than the Chiefs with these two. Then with the way last week’s game ended in Green Bay, it’s just been a frustrating season for Kansas City and I think he chose to take it out on the refs instead of strangling Toney, who really needs to be cut. He provides no value and has almost single-handedly cost them games against the Lions and Bills this year.

But not knocking out the Bills (7-6) when you had a chance could prove fatal. Imagine if this propels Buffalo to make the playoffs and this ends up being a 7/2 or 6/3 wild card matchup. That would not be good for the Chiefs, who struggle with Buffalo as much as any opponent.

But we’ll see how things go from here and if Buffalo can build from this with a tough remaining schedule. The Chiefs only have 4 games left to improve, but it feels like both sides of the ball are declining right now.

Trading away Tyreek Hill and trading for Kadarius Toney is epic team mismanagement. That’s almost as bad as getting Trent Richardson for Andrew Luck in Indy when he literally needed any other good player besides a running back.

This is the first time since 2017 where the Chiefs failed to have a lead in back-to-back games. Those were the ugly losses to the Giants (12-9 in overtime) and Buffalo (16-10). Do you know what that slide led to? Andy Reid gave up play-calling duties to offensive coordinator Matt Nagy, who is the OC now in 2023.

Might need a new plan here, because this isn’t working. I made this prediction before Week 7 when the Chiefs were 5-1, and it was tongue-in-cheek at the time. But my goodness, this is where the Chiefs are seemingly every week now. A game-winning play is botched, the offensive line falls apart, and there’s Mahomes throwing a miracle ball on 4th-and-long to end the game.

This is who Kansas City is in 2023 and I don’t see it changing this time. And that is why the frustration is boiling over on the field now.

Eagles at Cowboys: Another NFC Stomping

The big NFC round robin is complete now, and the 49ers come out looking like the best team after stomping the Cowboys (42-10) and Eagles (42-19) this year. The Cowboys and Eagles split their matchups with Philadelphia winning 28-23 at home and then Dallas returning the favor with this 20-point win.

So, only 1-of-4 games ended up being a competitive 60-minute game. But this is what I was saying about the Eagles the last few weeks. They rely on winning close games this year while the 49ers and Eagles blow teams out. They are your classic “win big, lose close” teams, and they just blew the Eagles out by 20 points in back-to-back weeks.

The crazy thing with this game is that the Eagles never even scored a touchdown on offense. Their only touchdown was Jalen Carter returning a fumble of Dak Prescott 42 yards for a score in the third quarter, the last time this looked like it might be a game.

Prescott said as much after the game that he didn’t have his best night, and he certainly didn’t. The Cowboys left plenty of points on the field, and we did at least see how awesome their new kicker is as Brandon Aubrey improved to 30-for-30 on the season at field goals with makes from 60, 59, 50, and 45 yards, making it look easy in the process. Yes, this has “misses first time all year in a crucial playoff moment” written all over it, but he was money in this game, becoming the first kicker to make from 59 and 60 in the same game.

But Prescott did not hurt his MVP case. In fact, he’s the outright leader now after he threw for 271 yards and 2 touchdowns, notching a 12th-striaght home game with at least 27 points scored (third-longest streak in NFL history).

Dallas was in control and moving the ball well from the opening drive. The Eagles were too sloppy with the ball. Jalen Hurts, who didn’t even pass for 200 yards again, lost a fumble on his team’s opening drive. A.J. Brown had a nice game, but he also fumbled on the team’s opening drive of the second half at midfield, down 24-6.

Down 27-13 late in the third quarter, Hurts threw for 3 yards on 3rd-and-11, then a 1-yard completion to DeVonta Smith on 4th-and-8. Those are failed completions. Finally, any chance of an improbable 17-point comeback was snuffed out when Smith fumbled a completion in the red zone with 6:38 left. Game over. The Eagles’ top 3 skill players all lost fumbles in this one.

But as I said last week, the 49ers and Cowboys could have beat the Eagles by 50 points each in these games, and there’s still a good chance Philadelphia gets the No. 1 seed, the bye week, and gets to host the rematch with these teams, who are now all 10-3. The Eagles don’t play any good teams the rest of the way. The Cowboys have to go to Buffalo and Miami the next two weeks, tough road games against contenders. The 49ers have to host the Ravens on Christmas, a tough game.

But we can save talk about future games for down the road. It’s just an eyesore on Dallas’ resume to lose that game to Arizona as a 13-point favorite, because that could be the one that costs them a No. 1 seed. Strong performance here by the Cowboys, and maybe the back-to-back beatings puts some doubt in the Philadelphia locker room.

But chances are the Cowboys (and 49ers) will have to do it again to Philly in January.

Rams at Ravens: Unexpected Hero in Unexpected Overtime Classic

Lamar Jackson is now 19-1 against the NFC in his career, but this may have been the toughest win to earn yet. I really did not see this coming as the Rams were a 7.5-point road underdog, and we’ve seen the Ravens destroy some NFC teams at home this year like the Lions (38-6) and Seahawks (37-3). My thought on Lamar against the NFC is that those teams just aren’t familiar with playing him yet and it takes some experience as he is such a unique talent.

But the Rams scored on 4-of-5 drives to start the game, had no turnovers on the road, and Matthew Stafford showed up for this one. Both quarterbacks had 3 touchdown passes and Stafford was only 6 yards away from matching Lamar with a 300-yard passing game. Jackson also rushed for 70 yards.

It was a tight, enjoyable back-and-forth game with plenty of points – exactly the kind of experience we almost never get in 2023. The Rams took a lead on a safety at one point when a bad snap was kicked out of bounds by Jackson to avoid a touchdown going on the board. But the defense made a stop, and Jackson put Justin Tucker in range for a 33-yard field goal to regain the lead with 11:17 to play in a 23-22 game.

A couple drives later, Stafford threw a touchdown, but the Rams failed on the 2-point conversion, leading 28-23 with 4:41 left. Not many comeback drives in situations like this in Lamar’s career, but he pulled this one off just when it looked like things were falling apart at the end with a 3rd-and-17. Zay Flowers was left open for a 21-yard touchdown with 1:16 left, and the Ravens made the crucial 2-point conversion this time to take a 31-28 lead.

Stafford has plenty of experience doing this, and a big play to Cooper Kupp moved the ball to the Baltimore 22. But the Rams were not able to get any more than 4 yards from there, so they settled for a game-tying field goal and overtime.

The Ravens went 3-and-out in overtime, which we don’t penalize enough for the team that goes first on offense, because now all the Rams had to do was get a field goal to win. But the Rams also went 3-and-out, and Sean McVay let an inexcusable delay of game penalty happen on the drive to make it 3rd-and-9. You get timeouts in overtime; you should use them there to avoid that mess.

The Rams punted, and while you usually don’t expect much on these plays anymore, the Ravens made them pay with Tylan Wallace returning the punt 76 yards for a touchdown. It almost had a Steve Young vs. Vikings quality to it with Wallace stumbling after 3 broken tackles, but he housed it for only the 4th game-winning punt return touchdown in overtime history:

And that is the shocking way the Ravens moved to 10-3 and the Rams dropped to 6-7. A much better game than you could have expected from this one. This is the second non-offensive game-winning score of the year. The first was T.J. Watt’s fumble return touchdown from Deshaun Watson in Week 2 in Browns-Steelers.

Vikings at Raiders: Almost 0-0

I thought 6-0 last week in New England in decent weather was bad, but 3-0 indoors in Vegas?

At some point, I stopped being mad at the lack of scoring and was rooting for history to be made with a scoreless overtime tie, which has never happened in NFL history. It may have happened without a quarterback change by the Vikings, which led to the game-winning drive as Nick Mullens finally strung together some completions after Joshua Dobbs could not.

We were really close on this one:

  • The last scoreless tie in the NFL was in 1943 between the Giants and Lions before overtime existed.
  • Vikings-Raiders is only the 11th game since 1940 with no more than 3 combined points.
  • It is the NFL’s first 3-0 game since the 2007 Steelers beat Miami in the game where the punt stuck in the ground. Pittsburgh’s score came with 17 seconds left, so this game was the longest an NFL game had gone scoreless since this one in 2007.
  • Almost 30 years to the date, the Jets and Redskins played a 3-0 game on 12/11/1993 with the Jets scoring in the first quarter. That makes Vikings-Raiders and Dolphins-Steelers the only games with fewer than 6 combined points in the salary cap era.

So, we didn’t get the record, but we can say this is the 2nd-longest game to last scoreless since 1978.

Given the shitshow the Vikings put on against the Bears their last timeout, Kevin O’Connell has to explain why things are broken right now, and Dobbs may be out of the starting lineup next week now that a division title is within reach.

Justin Jefferson returned from his hamstring injury in this game, but he unfortunately didn’t last long after taking a nasty shot to the back. But the Vikings still have weapons. Certainly enough to do better than 9 punts on 11 possessions. The game only had 1 missed field goal (by Minnesota) and the Raiders turned it over 3 times in the second half, including a big fumble in the red zone by Hunter Renfrow, and Aidan O’Connell was immediately intercepted after Greg Joseph’s 36-yard field goal provided the only points at the 2-minute warning.

I’m not sure Mullens is the answer going forward, but it doesn’t look like Dobbs is. I’m also not sure you can hire an interim coach who loses a home game indoors 3-0 like Antonio Pierce just did.

And oh joy, both teams will be in island games this week with the Raiders playing the Chargers on Thursday night and the Vikings on Saturday against the Bengals.

Seahawks at 49ers: Drew Locked Up Some Millions

Not much was expected from this game with Drew Lock starting for an injured Geno Smith. The spread moved above 14 points, but I did like Seattle to cover that as divisional rematches can be weird.

This one was a little weird as Lock played a competent game and the Seahawks were within striking distance. But the 49ers averaged 9.9 yards per play on their way to 527 yards as the studs were not being stopped on this day. Christian McCaffrey kicked it off with a 72-yard run on the first snap, though he was taken out for a breather and never scored a touchdown despite having odds in the -350 range to do so this week. Ouch.

Deebo Samuel had another huge game with 149 yards and a touchdown. Brandon Aiyuk (126 yards) was also over 100 yards, and George Kittle caught a 44-yard touchdown, because of course he did. Where was that on Thanksgiving when I needed 40 yards from him to win $2,500?

But anyways, it was the Kittle touchdown two snaps into the final quarter that shifted everything as Seattle was only down 21-16 before that score. Lock was then intercepted twice, and the 49ers ran out the clock for another win that all but wraps up this NFC West race.

But Lock probably made himself a few million in the process as a competent start against what looks like the best team in the league could keep him around for years to come in a league starved for quarterbacks.

Yet it is Mr. Irrelevant who continues to break football minds as he had another big game with 368 yards on just 27 attempts. It wasn’t the big YAC plays this week like last week in Philadelphia too as Purdy dropped some balls right in the basket in big moments. He’s legitimately very good in running this offense, and while a lot of quarterbacks may be in his shoes, you look around at the 0-0 scores on Sunday and the other offenses that struggled to find the end zone at all like the Eagles, and you have to say Purdy is a remarkable story.

Lions at Bears: No 12-Point Comeback This Time

I think you have to be worried if you’re a Detroit fan that this thing is about to spiral out of control. No, they still haven’t lost back-to-back games yet this year, but losing out and losing the division title to Minnesota is now a real possibility.

The Lions needed the miracle comeback of the season to erase a 12-point deficit against the Bears at home just a few weeks ago. This performance was even worse in Chicago as the Bears did what they did on offense again, but the Lions had no strong finish this time. In fact, things only got worse with the Lions going scoreless on their 7 possessions in the second half, including a fumble, two failed 4th downs, and an interception on their last 4 drives.

It was an aborted snap by Detroit late in the third quarter that led to a short field for the Bears, who turned it into a touchdown and 25-13 lead. Fittingly, it was another 12-point comeback opportunity, but Jared Goff just didn’t have it in the elements this day. The running game was solid with David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs both going over 60 yards, but when it came time for a 4th-and-1 conversion, Gibbs was stuffed in the backfield for a 4-yard loss.

The Lions were taking their time on the ensuing drive in a 28-13 game, and Goff eventually threw incomplete on 4th-and-17 with 5:16 left. More pressure on him on the next drive led to an interception on 4th-and-24 with 2:31 left to seal it.

Detroit played much better in the first matchup when turnovers put them in a hole. This time, the Bears more or less controlled play from the opening kickoff, something we have rarely ever seen in the Matt Eberflus era.

The Lions have now allowed at least 26 points in all 5 games since the bye week. Without a home win against Denver next week, this is going to get very dicey with games against the Vikings and a trip to Dallas left.

Colts at Bengals: Nice System in Cincinnati…

I hope Jake Browning’s thumb is good because this is getting really interesting in Cincinnati. For the second start in a row, Browning completed at least 75% of his passes with at least 275 yards in a win against another playoff contender in the AFC.

He didn’t take any sacks against the Colts, and his only real mistake was a pick-six that was a receiver error as he handed the ball to the defender on a silver platter. That also proved to be Indy’s final score of the game as the offense only mustered one touchdown drive in a 34-14 loss. It was only the second time all year the Colts failed to score 20 points in a game under Shane Steichen.

They picked a bad time for it with the Bengals in that wild card mix. But Browning clearly won this battle of backups, and Gardner Minshew may have even stayed in the game despite a possible concussion early in the game. The Colts failed to score on their final 5 possessions.

The Colts (7-6) might be in real trouble when you consider how games with the Steelers, their next opponent, usually go. Not only do you have to contend with Minshew’s mistakes, but the running game has essentially gone nowhere in 4-of-5 games.

The Bengals (7-6) are not finished as they have stumbled onto something to work with at the quarterback position in Browning.

Jaguars at Browns: Lawrence Returns But So Has Joe Flacco

Trevor Lawrence has still never missed a start due to injury in his NFL career, but sometimes you wonder if it’s not for the best if a player takes a week to rest. Lawrence barely averaged 5.0 yards per attempt as he threw 50 passes, including 3 interceptions, a 31-27 loss in Cleveland that felt like a 5-hour game.

Cleveland led wire-to-wire with Joe Flacco stepping up to throw for 311 yards and 3 touchdowns, simultaneously making you want to praise Kevin Stefanski for finding quality play in another quarterback not named Deshaun Watson while also questioning just how good that Jake Browning performance was on Monday night if the Jags are playing defense like this. Seriously, David Njoku was left wide open several times for big plays in this one.

But the Jaguars continued to struggle running the ball effectively, and the turnovers were hard to overcome. The game went on so long in part because Cleveland also turned it over 3 times. Each team had 16 possessions (kneeldowns excluded).

The big turning point was the second play of the 4th quarter when Lawrence was picked on a deep ball on 3rd-and-1 in a 21-14 game. I guess the Jaguars can’t even trust Travis Etienne to get a yard when they needed it most. Flacco used that short 48-yard field for another touchdown drive. But the Jaguars kept scoring and applying pressure, even coming up short on a 4th-and-3 with 3:30 left. By the time Jacksonville scored with 1:33 left, there was only time for an onside kick in a 31-27 final. They didn’t recover and the game was over.

Fortunately for the Jaguars (8-5), the Colts and Texans lost too. But the Browns are gaining confidence at 8-5 and just may have a quarterback answer in Flacco if you can believe it in 2023.

Buccaneers at Falcons: Baker Mayfield Brings NFC South Race to a Standstill

The Bucs were 1-15 when allowing 20 points under Todd Bowles since 2022, but make that 2-15 and give Baker Mayfield just as many wins doing it as Tom Brady had last year. The Buccaneers (6-7) are currently leading the NFC South as the Falcons and Saints are also 6-7 for the league’s worst division around.

But Baker did pull out a little Brady in this one as the Falcons were generally the better team, but Younghoe Koo missed two field goals he usually makes, and the Tampa defense was opportunistic in intercepting a screen pass and getting a safety to lead 19-10.

But the Falcons rallied to take a late 25-22 lead. Mayfield’s accuracy and decision making looked woeful on the ensuing drive as he looked like he was playing for a touchdown with under 30 seconds left instead of calmly taking the easy plays in a 3-point game with enough time left. But he finally got on track with a huge 3rd-and-10 conversion to Chris Godwin for 32 yards, then two plays later, he found Cade Otton for an 11-yard touchdown with 31 seconds left to take a 29-25 lead.

The Falcons did a solid job using their 2 timeouts to get into range for the win at the Tampa Bay 31 with 4 seconds left. But that last throw absolutely had to be in the end zone on the final play, and for some reason, Desmond Ridder threw short, completing a pass to Drake London for 28 yards to the 3-yard line to end the game. Didn’t understand that decision at all as Ridder had time to throw a little deeper to the end zone.

The Falcons and Bucs have split with each team winning on the road this year. Who is the best team out of Saints, Buccaneers, and Falcons? Damn if I know. The winner of the division should just be a sacrificial lamb to the NFC East runner-up.

Broncos at Chargers: Did We Just Lose Justin Herbert?

That would be something if this turned out to be the final game of the Brandon Staley-Justin Herbert era for the Chargers. Herbert left with a fractured index finger on his throwing hand, which is obviously not good.

It was already shaping up to be a rough start for Herbert, who had a pick at the line that led to a 3-yard touchdown run by Javonte Williams, his first score on the ground in 2 whole years.

Almost fittingly, Herbert was injured on a 4th-and-2 attempt in the second quarter as Staley bypassed a 47-yard field goal. Easton Stick, a 5th-round pick by the team way back in 2019, replaced him for the rest of the game. That was a tough assignment as the Chargers finished 1-for-6 on 4th down thanks to going 0-for-12 on 3rd down.

The Chargers (5-8) are toast, and the Broncos (7-6) are only a game behind the Chiefs (8-5) in the AFC West if you can believe that.

Texans at Jets: The Most Unexpected 300-Yard Passing Game

What a strange game. It always felt like a trap for the Texans, but who could have imagined 11 straight punts and a knee to go to halftime scoreless, then for Zach Wilson to throw for 301 yards in a 24-6 win?

The weather wasn’t as windy as some expected, so it wasn’t the issue. Not when Wilson was able to pass for 301 yards and multiple touchdowns in his first start in weeks. C.J. Stroud, the rookie who entered Week 14 leading the league in passing yards, only passed for 91 yards before he left the game injured in the fourth quarter.

But this was a case of not having your top two wide receivers and tight end while facing a tough pass defense on the road. The Texans already lost Tank Dell for the year, tight end Dalton Schutlz was still out, and Nico Collins left the game early with an injury. Stroud had his hands full and the Texans just did not deliver this afternoon.

But Wilson had his way with the defense as he completed 27-of-36 passes with Garrett Wilson going over 100 yards, and Randall Cobb even caught a touchdown.

Amusingly, the Jets tacked on 3 field goals in the fourth quarter on drives that all lost yardage as they were set up in Houston territory after 4th down stops by the defense. But the damage was done before that point.

Panthers at Saints: The NFC South Is Really This Bad

The passing offense was absolutely grotesque well into the second half of this game:

Derek Carr ended up finishing with 119 yards on 18 completions, taking him out of record territory, but it was still a putrid showing against the NFL’s only 1-win team. Bryce Young also struggled mightily again as he is regressing instead of showing improvement in his rookie season.

The Saints were almost going to win this one with 7 points on offense and the other 7 from a blocked punt return touchdown. But the defense stopped Carolina on a 4th-and-1 in a 14-6 game, then Carr hit a 44-yard completion that was more yardage than he had in the first 50 minutes combined. That drive was finished with a 7-yard touchdown to Chris Olave, then Jimmy Graham later caught a touchdown to blow it open 28-6.

We can talk about the Saints’ struggles on offense, but the Panthers are beyond putrid. There was already that Week 4 game against Minnesota where the Panthers scored 6 points (two field goals) despite holding the ball for 38:29. They came close to that again in this one with 34:50 in time of possession but only a pair of field goals to show for it.

Not only is Young failing to flash signs of improvement, but he’s f’n boring to watch too. Things are a real mess in Carolina right now and it is unlikely a good coach is going to want to take this job in 2024.

Next week: Are we really going to start the week with Easton Stick and Aidan O’Connell? A Saturday triple-header with no must-see games? It has to be Dallas at Buffalo to carry Sunday, because even SNF (Ravens-Jaguars) has lost some luster with the Jaguars on a losing streak. They flexed KC-NE out of MNF for Eagles-Seahawks, but I thought that was a mistake even before this KC losing streak. I much rather see if the Chiefs can avoid losing to Bailey Zappe than to watch another game with fading Seattle (and Philly for that matter) right now.

NFL Stat Oddity: Week 13

~ Scott ~ 8 Comments

I had some high expectations for Week 13 in the NFL, but it looks like the week peaked on Thursday night when the Seahawks gave the Cowboys their best shot in a 41-35 shootout.

While there have been 9 games with a comeback opportunity this week, the only one on Sunday with any fourth-quarter lead changes was Colts vs. Titans. You know it’s a weak slate when Gardner Minshew vs. Will Levis was the highlight game of the afternoon with a wild variety of big plays leading to a walk-off overtime touchdown that could have the Colts in a better playoff position than some of these teams like the Steelers, Browns, and Broncos.

The NFC’s Game of the Year saw the 49ers blow the Eagles away over the final 45 minutes, scoring 6 straight touchdowns before running out the clock in a 42-19 win. The way it happened only further complicated the MVP race in my book, but I knew going in Jalen Hurts was not the choice.

One thing that caught my eye this week was that even if you fire Frank Reich (Panthers), Matt Canada (Steelers), and Jack Del Rio (Commanders), the roster flaws are still going to be there this late in the season. It’s too hard to shake those deficiencies, and if the in-house promotion taking over those roles was good enough in the first place, things would have been working better earlier in the season. Coaching matters but firing a coach near wintertime is unlikely going to spark much change. You have to wait until the offseason to really clean house and fix things for next year.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

49ers at Eagles: Having a QB to Get Those Receivers the Ball Did in Fact Matter a Lot

Yeah, I may have reverse jinxed the Eagles this week if all the talk about point differential and Jalen Hurts being a sham of an MVP season weren’t clues to that. But even I was surprised at the switch the 49ers hit in the second quarter after the first 15 minutes, which they usually do great in, saw Brock Purdy complete 0 passes and the Eagles take a 6-0 lead. The Eagles looked ready to throw early with Hurts playing decisively on third downs to his wideouts. But the 49ers stiffened in the red zone and held them to field goals.

Once the 49ers got their initial first down, it was lights out from there. They scored 6 straight touchdowns on drives that covered 85, 90, 75, 77, 75, and 48 yards. No one can compete with an offense in that kind of rhythm. Christian McCaffrey had a solid day on the ground (93 yards), but it was the incredible YAC by Deebo Samuel and the receivers that won the day again for the 49ers.

Samuel showed his rare mix of speed and strength on a 48-yard touchdown in the third quarter when it looked like the Eagles might make it close, and then even Jauan Jennings showed a nice move on an 18-yard touchdown in the fourth quarter. Samuel had one more in him from 46 yards out that was mostly YAC, and he had a rushing touchdown earlier, so it was a hat trick.

Purdy threw for 314 yards and 4 touchdowns. Not bad for a quarterback who had no completions in the opening quarter, and who didn’t escape the first drive of the title game without a major injury. He orchestrated the offense perfectly, though I would say he was much more impressive as a passer against Dallas in Week 5, the other game this year when he threw 4 touchdowns and dropped 42 points on a main NFC contender. I don’t know what you do with this MVP race now, but I know Purdy and Dak Prescott should be ahead of Hurts, who quietly finished with 298 yards and 2 total touchdowns in a game the 49ers controlled for the last 45 minutes. Hurts also momentarily left for a concussion check but finished the game.

For a big game with such a lopsided 42-19 score, it was odd to not see a single turnover or missed field goal. There wasn’t even a failed 4th down until 2:07 remained and the Eagles gave it back.

We can assume these teams are both going to the playoffs, so this could be only the third game since 1970 between playoff teams where there were no turnovers and someone won by at least 23 points. The Eagles have the worst such loss in 2013 when they lost 52-20 to Peyton Manning’s Broncos. Manning’s Colts also beat Jeff Fisher’s Titans in a 23-0 game in a Week 17 playoff rest scenario.

But as I was saying Saturday, the Eagles’ fortunate close wins against the Chiefs and Bills combined with their remaining schedule still gives them an edge for the No. 1 seed, so Dallas or San Francisco could still have to come back to Philly in January to get to the Super Bowl. We’ll see what happens next week in the NFC East rematch, but maybe if the Eagles are 0-2 against those teams in December, they’ll both have confidence they can come back to Philly and win again.

Chiefs at Packers: A Slightly Different Kind of KC Loss

You rarely see Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs lose a game like this. In fact, it’s the first time in his career where the Chiefs scored more than 9 points and never held a lead. It is only the third wire-to-wire loss in Mahomes’ career, joining the 2021 Titans (27-3) and 2023 Broncos (24-9).

This was a limited-possession game with each team only getting the ball 7 times, which means every mistake gets magnified. The Chiefs arguably lost it in the first half when they converted their two long drives into field goals after Mahomes took a career-high 3 sacks in the red zone as Green Bay’s pass rush was great again. Meanwhile, the Packers converted their drives into touchdowns and led 14-6 behind another strong showing from Jordan Love, who became the first quarterback to drop 27 points on the Chiefs defense this year. The defense had a few injuries in the game and failed to impress.

While the Chiefs had back-to-back touchdown drives and were in position to take their first lead in a 21-19 game in the fourth quarter, we got a taste of the officiating blunders to come. Mahomes threw incomplete on a 3rd-and-8 to a receiver (Richie James) who was on the ground and he thought he’d get the flag call, but it didn’t come. It was the only 3-and-out in the game.

The Packers turned that into a field goal and 24-19 lead. After getting a soft defensive pass interference flag, the Chiefs turned the ball over when Mahomes floated a bad decision throw to Skyy Moore, who was beat to the ball by Keisean Nixon for an interception with 5:14 left. Good things just never happen when this offense goes to Moore, and I’m not sure why that was the call when Travis Kelce and Rashee Rice had solid nights. So did Isiah Pacheco on the ground, but the Chiefs even went away from him in some key moments to try getting their worst players involved again. A recurring theme this year.

The Packers burned more clock and made the Chiefs use their timeouts before kicking a field goal to make it 27-19. Mahomes had to drive 70 yards in 69 seconds, but that’s doable. The officiating was just horrendous on this drive as penalties seemed to be switched to random mode:

  • They called the Packers for a 15-yard unnecessary roughness hit on Mahomes on the sideline when he was still in bounds on a scramble. Bad call.
  • They blew a live fumble play that wasn’t a fumble as Rice was down, and in the ensuing scrum, they disqualified Pacheco for hitting someone back in retaliation, a dumb 15-yard flag.
  • Mahomes went for a deep shot to Marquez Valdes-Scantling, and after one of the most blatant defensive pass interference you’ll ever see, no flag came out. The ball should have been inside the 5.
  • MVS got out of bounds on a 9-yard gain with 19 seconds left, but his forward momentum was stopped and it should have been a running clock.

The Chiefs’ strategy from the Green Bay 33 made little sense as they only had one great shot at the end zone, and it was the final play on the Hail Mary. There was a clear shove on Kelce in the end zone, which could have been called for DPI and an untimed down, but no flag came of course.

What a mess. I’m actually okay with the no call on the Hail Mary. It needs to be something really egregious like pushing a guy to the ground or holding his arm back or not playing the ball at all and tackling the receiver. But that no call on MVS was ridiculous. Textbook DPI and they were afraid to call it on the home team in a big spot.

It was the first time this year the Chiefs lost and Mahomes wasn’t seen throwing incomplete on 4th-and-25+ to end the game. But given they were 33 yards away from the end zone on the last play, that 4th-and-10 might as well have been 4th-and-33.

The Packers (6-6) are very much in this playoff race. Beating the Lions and Chiefs in back-to-back weeks is more impressive than any wins teams like the Dolphins and Cowboys have this year.

As for the Chiefs, what can be said that wasn’t clear going into the season? They gambled on a bad wide receiver room, and it’s been the main source of their problems this year along with Kelce losing a step at 34. Even in the first half of this game, those were coverage sacks in the red zone with receivers not getting open. You don’t expect to only get 7 cracks at the ball, but that can happen, and that’s why the Chiefs are a liability to get into a shootout this year since they are simply not as efficient on offense as they were in 2018-22. The defense played its worst game of the season and the result shows it. Never led.

I could see the Chiefs, who are 2-3 against NFC teams this year, losing to Buffalo next week too, a team that has success against them and is playing for their playoff lives.

Colts at Titans: Amusing AFC South Battle

I keep saying it every week but the Colts are doing an exceptional job at scoring with backup offensive players in a year where so many offenses are struggling. If the Colts (7-5) keep doing this and sneak into the playoffs, I think you have to look at Shane Steichen for Coach of the Year.

This was a one-sided game early with the Colts trailing 17-7, but they crawled back with field goals, then things got wild late in the third quarter when they blocked Tennessee’s punt and returned it for a touchdown. But in going for a 2-point conversion, Minshew’s pass was intercepted and returned the distance for the rare pick-2 to make it a 22-19 game with the Colts ahead.

Incredibly, the Colts blocked the next punt too after demolishing and injuring punter Ryan Stonehouse. But despite having a 1st-and-goal at the 7, the Colts settled for a field goal and 25-19 lead. The Titans were able to tie it with Will Levis throwing a 3-yard touchdown to DeAndre Hopkins, but Nick Folk was wide left on the extra point, failing to give his team the lead. Stonehouse was the regular holder on kicks, but quarterback Ryan Tannehill had to take over for him due to the injury. Maybe that threw off the kicking process for Folk, who later had to punt in the game and did an adequate job with that.

The teams traded punts to eventually go to overtime where the Titans won the toss and received first. After a lengthy drive with penalties, they settled for a field goal and 28-25 lead. But like we saw last week with Bills-Eagles, the team going last with the ball was able to calmly drive with over 4 minutes left for a game-winning touchdown, playing 4-down football without having to conserve much time. Minshew hit a 55-yard pass to Alec Pierce, then two plays later the Titans played some unbelievably soft coverage on Michael Pittman Jr. in the end zone on a 4-yard touchdown to walk it off for the Colts. That was open all day for the Colts an Pittman, who had 11 catches for 105 yards.

The future of the AFC South looks to be in good hands with Jacksonville thriving, and the Colts and Texans are already competing for the playoffs in Year 1 of their regimes.

Lions at Saints: The Almost Comeback

When you see a team jump out to a 21-0 lead not even 7 full minutes into a game, you do get a bit more worried about a big blown lead than if you built it up more naturally with long drives and less time left.

The Lions were all over the Saints early, but it was a shaky finish to a 33-28 final. The Saints were down 27-21 going into the fourth quarter, but that’s when Derek Carr lost a fumble, and the Lions had another short-yardage drive for a touchdown. Carr was injured on the next drive with a concussion, shoulder, and back injury. Maybe a rib too because why not? Rough day for him all around.

Jameis Winston took over and the Saints saw the full Jameis experience again. Chris Olave helped this comeback get close with some circus catches on the day, including a deflected ball by Jameis that Olave caught for 30 yards to convert a 3rd-and-13.

But down 33-28 late, Winston threw 3 straight incompletions with 6 yards to go at the Detroit 40. The Lions were able to run out the final 2:56 on the clock after Jared Goff made a nice little throw on the run to convert a 3rd-and-9 to Josh Reynolds, who ducked down to make the low catch for 12 yards to end the threat.

Two qualities Carr was supposed to bring to New Orleans was solid durability, but he’s been knocked out of multiple games with injuries this year, and the other was an edge in close games as he has pulled off a lot of comebacks and game-winning drives in his career. But the Saints are now 0-5 at comeback opportunities, the worst record of any team this season.

Chargers at Patriots: Everything Is Over in New England Except for the Score

Bill Belichick is a noted historian of the game, so I wonder what he thinks of this run his team is on right now.

The 2023 Patriots are on a 3-game losing streak where they lost 10-6 to the Colts, 10-7 to the Giants, and now 6-0 to the Chargers. This is not normal in any era of professional football that’s happened after Hitler invaded Poland in 1939.

These are the only teams since 1940 to go 3 straight games without scoring or allowing more than 10 points: 1940 Steelers (4 games), 1940 Lions (3 games), 1946 Steelers (3 games), 1993 Jets (3 games), and 2023 Patriots. At least when the Jets did it in 1993, they still found a way to go 2-1 in those games.

The 2023 Patriots are the first team since the 1938 Chicago Cardinals to lose at least 3 straight games when allowing no more than 10 points. It happened to those Cardinals in 4 straight games.

I almost feel bad for Belichick (not really) in this one, because it may have turned out differently if Rhamondre Stevenson didn’t get injured and fumble on a play in the first quarter when it looked like the Patriots were driving. Stevenson was off to another good start with 39 yards in the quarter, but he was knocked out with a serious leg injury and lost a fumble on top of it. The Patriots never got deeper than the Chargers 28 the rest of the game.

But do you know how absurd it is to have a 6-0 game in 44-degree weather with marginal wind and no precipitation? They held Justin Herbert to 6 points and still lost. Philip Rivers, who lost so many big games to the Patriots in his career, had to be jealous as hell watching Herbert get a win here.

Because it was a ridiculous game all around. The Chargers scored two field goals on drives that went 27 and 7 yards. That’s it. This game somehow ended 6-0 despite no missed field goals and the only turnover was Stevenson’s fumble.

This is only the 5th game in the salary cap era (since 1994) to have 6 combined points or fewer, and only the 2nd that wasn’t influenced by extreme weather or rested starters:

  • 2003 Steelers at Jets (W 6-0): One of the worst football watching experiences I ever had as very heavy snow killed the game, but the Steelers also missed a pair of short field goals (43 and 20 yards).
  • 2007 Dolphins at Steelers (W 3-0): The infamous wet field that was so bad a punt landed and immediately stuck to the ground.
  • 2017 Cowboys at Eagles (L 6-0): Week 17 game where the Eagles (No. 1 seed) were resting starters and the Cowboys missed an extra point on their only touchdown.
  • 2018 Colts at Jaguars (W 6-0): Jacksonville might as well be the Bermuda Triangle when the Colts go down there, and this was the weirdest loss of Andrew Luck’s career.

The Patriots did fail on a couple of 4th downs to turn it over, but this was still a historic, low-scoring game. The Chargers sacked Bailey Zappe 5 times to help win the game. Herbert converted a late 3rd-and-11 to seal the game and not give the Patriots one more try.

We know they weren’t going to score anyway. Now with the Steelers and Mitch Trubisky up next, the Patriots may continue this unfathomable streak of sucking all the points (and joy) out of games.

Broncos at Texans: Russ Wasn’t Cooking Today

I wanted to see what Denver’s offense would do against a formidable Houston offense that doesn’t turn it over much, so they would unlikely fuel Russell Wilson with a bunch of short fields like he’s enjoyed during the 5-game winning streak for Denver.

Sure enough, the Texans had no turnovers, and sure enough, the Broncos struggled to move the ball. The Broncos were down 13-0 and Courtland Sutton didn’t even make a catch until late in the third quarter on a great 45-yard effort.

But instead of a comeback win to keep this streak going, Wilson ended up throwing 3 interceptions on the team’s final 4 drives. But since the Houston offense lost Tank Dell to injury and C.J. Stroud had some misfires and took 5 sacks, it was a 22-17 game late. Houston definitely left some points on the field in this one and had to rely on the defense to put it away.

It looked like Wilson might pull this one out after he scrambled for a first down on a 4th-and-2 at the Houston 8 with 23 seconds left. But the defense stiffened, and after trying to scramble and make a heroic throw, Wilson was picked off in the end zone to ice the win for Houston (7-5), a key tiebreaker in this AFC race.

Falcons at Jets: The Beat Goes On

The Falcons squeezed out a 13-8 win in a game where neither team’s starting quarterback had 150 passing yards, neither team reached 14 points, and neither team averaged better than 2.6 yards per carry.

That sounds about right. But for as unimpressive as Desmond Ridder can be, he didn’t let the Jets take advantage of a big turnover. The Falcons had to survive 9 punts and a safety, but they did it thanks to a defense that finished strong.

The Jets benched starter Tim Boyle for veteran backup Trevor Siemian, but he was not an improvement. He had 4 opportunities at a go-ahead touchdown in a 13-8 game, but he never got deeper than the Atlanta 48, and that even includes a drive where he took over at the Atlanta 48.

The Falcons (6-6) weren’t about to let Siemian add his name to the list of quarterbacks to upset them this year. The Jets have gone 6 straight games without scoring more than 13 points. One more game and it will tie the longest streak in the NFL since the 2003 Giants had a 7-game run of futility.

Browns at Rams: Flacco vs. Stafford in the Year 2023?

I don’t know where Cleveland’s season is heading at 7-5, but I hope people can understand these back-to-back 17-point losses to the Broncos and Rams were much closer than the scores suggest. Last week it was a big fumble on a doomed play call in a 17-12 game that started the avalanche.

This time, it was Joe Flacco’s first start with the team, and let’s be honest, he played better than the average Deshaun Watson start for Kevin Stefanski. It was not surprising to see him have a connection with Eljah Moore (83 yards) after they played together with the Jets last season.

But Flacco may have trusted his arm and Moore a little too much on an ill-advised pass. Flacco had just led a touchdown drive that should have tied the game, but the Browns were wide right on the extra point, keeping the Rams ahead 20-19. Flacco got the ball back, but instead of taking his time to set up the go-ahead field goal, he immediately threw deep for Moore and was intercepted with 6:32 left. The interception was also returned deep into Cleveland territory, setting up a 24-yard touchdown drive after Cooper Kupp caught a short score with 3:48 left.

I thought that would have been a great spot for a 2-point conversion to go up 9, but Sean McVay settled for the 27-19 lead. The Browns went 4-and-out, setting up the Rams for another short field and 30-yard touchdown drive to make it 34-19. With the game basically out of reach, Flacco was hit with an intentional grounding penalty and a pair of sacks to end up with a safety for the Rams, which is how we got to 36-19 (surprisingly, not a unique score in NFL history).

The short fields didn’t help, but the Cleveland defense also failed to get any sacks or takeaways. This team isn’t going to win many more games if that continues to happen. Meanwhile, the Rams are 6-6 and right back in the playoff mix.

Dolphins at Commanders: You’ve Watched Tyreek Hill Play Before, Right?

The Dolphins have lost their No. 1 scoring team status to Dallas for the time being, but what do you think happened when they played the No. 32 scoring defense in Washington? They dropped 45 points on them too like Dallas did on Thanksgiving, including a pick-6 on a screen.

But it was touchdowns of 78 and 60 yards to Tyreek Hill that highlighted Washington’s awful day on defense. They have watched Hill play before, right? Eric Bieniemy could have told the defense a thing or two about what this guy does, but they were still burned twice for big ones as Hill finished with 157 yards, good for his pursuit of 2,000 yards.

It was just a weird, pointless game in that Washington trailed 31-7 at halftime and still finished with 28 runs to 26 passes. A couple of those runs were Sam Howell scrambles off passes as he picked up another 2 rushing touchdowns, but that’s still pretty much 50-50 play calling despite the huge margin.

Cardinals at Steelers: Playing Down to the Competition Isn’t What It Used to Be When the Standard Is This Low

On the one hand, the Steelers losing 24-10 at home to the 2-10 Cardinals with James Conner seeking a revenge game (105 yards, 2 TD) wasn’t that surprising. It’s hardly the first time in the Mike Tomlin era they played down to the competition. But the way they looked so outmatched in a game that took over 4 hours to complete because of two weather delays was appalling. They made Trey McBride look like prime Gronk, and the Cardinals almost couldn’t miss on third down for a long portion of the game.

Then there’s the offense, which is averaging 3 points per first half without Matt Canada, and 13 points per game without Canada. They basically call their best plays on the opening drive, then it’s back to the same old garbage for the rest of the game. You see Kenny Pickett throw a play-action bomb to George Pickens on a 2nd-and-1 for 38 yards and think that’s smart, that’s anti-Canada progress. But where is anything like that the rest of the game?

Then Pickett was injured again, the 5th time in 25 appearances that he was unable to finish because of injury, which is an absurd number. He’s almost ready to match Ben Roethlisberger’s number and he played 18 years.

The Pickett injury preceded the game’s critical swing point. The Steelers faced 4th-and-1 at the 1 and of course you’d go for it there. Mitch Trubisky was at quarterback and they tried to hammer it in with Najee Harris, but I bet you a spread run with Jaylen Warren had a better shot of converting. Maybe they wanted to keep it simple with Trubisky coming into the game cold on a rainy day, but that was a blown opportunity.

Still, you don’t expect the Cardinals to drive 99 yards for a touchdown to end the half with a 10-3 lead. McBride came up huge on the drive, and he had what I thought was a touchdown that replay took away, meaning we still don’t know what a catch is in 2023. At least he got the touchdown on the next play, so no controversy there.

Trubisky fumbled a low snap in the third quarter and the Cardinals turned that into a 21-yard touchdown drive. Chris Boswell then missed a 45-yard field goal to make sure it was a shit sandwich with all three units contributing. A facemask penalty on a punt return set up Conner for his 2nd touchdown run on what was a 33-yard touchdown drive. So, the defense allowed touchdown drives of 99, 21, and 33 yards. One clearly their fault, the others more questionable, but none of it really mattered because the offense was lousy again.

Pickett has shaken off his injuries before and played the next game, but it sounds like this ankle one will knock him out for a few weeks, especially with the Patriots up next this Thursday night. Does it even matter for the team’s performance? Nope. But it could only complicate how they view him going forward, because making the playoffs when poor play like this is still so rampant with the team would be a bad thing.

They need to start thinking about the future – a real one, and maybe one that includes a whole new coaching staff, because the standard is just stale.

Panthers at Buccaneers: Same Old 4th Quarter Story

Chris Tabor is the interim head coach of the Panthers, and in the first game after Frank Reich was fired, it was the same old story for Carolina. Nothing sparking in the passing game with Bryce Young, defensive lapses that led to Mike Evans dominating (162 yards and a 75-yard touchdown) despite Baker Mayfield not finding any of his other receivers, and of course a failure to rally in the fourth quarter.

The Panthers were able to turn a 21-10 game into a 21-18 game, but when Young got the ball back, he couldn’t convert a 3rd-and-1 and 4th-and-1 with the game on the line. First, why is he throwing on both critical downs when Chuba Hubbard had over 100 yards rushing and there were over 2:00 left? Just run the damn ball once or twice. You had the 2-minute warning and were at your 40 in a 3-point game. Like I said in the intro, these interim coaches are unlikely to be any better, and in some cases, they’ll be even worse.

Good night, Irene. The Panthers are 1-11. Too bad they can’t get the No. 1 pick and take a franchise quarterback in 2024…

Next week: The NFL clearly had high expectations for Week 14, but the teams weren’t up to the task. Bills-Chiefs is at least still interesting because Buffalo’s season is on life support and they basically need to win out, and the Chiefs are more vulnerable than ever. But it’s not as strong as the build-in to their last meeting. And while Eagles-Cowboys is a big one on SNF, it’s not really for first place in the NFC East like you’d hope it would be. I still think Eagles can win out even if losing this game and claim the division on a tiebreaker. But it is another chance for Dallas to establish some dominance and confidence against a key rival.