The buildup for the Super Bowl seems to get longer every year. But we made it to another one this weekend, and I think the potential is there for a great game between the San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs.
I’ve been writing a ton of articles the last 2 weeks, including some that have nothing to do with this game like the top 5 Super Bowl matchups we didn’t get. I’m burned out a bit and just eagerly awaiting tomorrow’s game that will kick off 24 hours from the minute I’m writing this paragraph.
Super Bowl Articles:
- Super Bowl 58 Preview – My main 4500-word game preview
- Scott’s Seven Super Bowl Picks – Last edition of the year
- Difference Maker – How the Chiefs Built an Elite Defense
- Difference Maker – Brock Purdy Is Not Jimmy Garoppolo 2.0
- Trends & Injuries to Consider
- Super Bowl MVP Pick
- Best Bets (OT)
- Player Props (BMR) – Good stuff on Patrick Mahomes and INTs
- Player Props (OT) [Heavy on WR/RB/TE]
- Game Props (OT) – good stuff on methodical Chiefs vs. big play 49ers
- 1st Quarter & 1st Half Props
- Live Movement Analysis
- Historical Super Bowl Trends to Brag About at Your Watch Party (10+ good nuggets here)
- Super Bowl Parlay (+1600 Odds)
- Live Betting Tips for Super Bowl
- SB 58 DFS lineups (BMR)
- SB 58 DFS lineups (OT)
- Coaching Staff Analysis
- Travis Kelce & Taylor Swift – His props with and without her in attendance
- More Kelce & Swift Stuff
- Do’s and Don’ts of Super Bowl Prop Betting (good stuff on penalties)
- 5 Under the Radar Players in SB 58
- Players who are hot & cold entering SB 58
- Skill Players & DST Breakdowns (OT)
- My gut thoughts and final score pick from January 28
I think that’s all of them.
Super Bowl LVIII Picks
One more time this season, here are my bets for the big game:
After 2 weeks and many hours of research and thousands of typed words, the game comes down to this for me:
Can the 49ers get a dominant game out of Christian McCaffrey to attack the weakness of the KC defense and help protect the nerves of Brock Purdy and the weakness of the offense (pass protection) against a top pass rush and set of corners?
I really think that is the main story in the game and a matter of attacking the Chiefs like Buffalo did with safe passes that move the chains thanks to a steady run game too. Purdy needs easy completions and to not be facing that blitz all night cause he will make mistakes that lose the game for San Francisco. Ride CMC here.
On the other side, same as it ever was. Can the Chiefs avoid or at least severely limit the mistakes that plagued them in their losses this year with drops by the WRs, penalties by the WR/OT, and fumbles by everyone? Can they stop calling the gadget shit and just run a normal play to extend a drive? Can they keep Mecole Hardman and Kadarius Toney’s asses on the sideline for any offensive snaps?
If the Chiefs protect the ball, they have a great chance to repeat here. But it’s such an interesting matchup of recent trends vs. season trends here. Not just the ball security stuff, but the way the Chiefs allowed the fewest points after halftime, scored the 3rd-fewest too, and the 49ers scored the most points after halftime while allowing the 2nd-fewest 4th quarter points. That points to a San Francisco team that can come back this time like they did in the first two playoff games, and it may be the Chiefs who are leaning on defense to close things out this time.
Or it could just revert back to their old ways. The front-running 49ers under Kyle Shanahan get out to a double-digit lead like all 3 teams that have faced Mahomes in the Super Bowl have done, but the Chiefs have that ability to string together scores and come back. Definitely going to be fun to see which game script wins out here.
I keep coming down on my score predictions. My gut was 30-27 on Championship Sunday night. Then I came down to 27-23 where I thought I’d stay at. But now I’m thinking it’s the 24-20 final that Super Bowl LIV should have had before Damien Williams had to cost me a $400 win on my Chiefs by exactly 4 bet with a touchdown he didn’t need to make it 31-20. But 24-20 is the kind of score the Chiefs have flirted with often in big games this year, and usually they came out on the wrong end (Lions, Eagles, Bills). This time I think they make the big play in the 4th quarter.
Did I mention all of those scores (30-27, 27-23, 24-20) had the Chiefs winning? It actually scares me just how easily I’ve picked KC the whole 2 weeks here. I usually have an easy time setting them up as a legit underdog where I’m quite skeptical they’ll win the game. But for some reason, I just feel confident about this one, and that bugs me a lot.
But I just think Purdy has the big game mistakes you expect from a young QB in this spot, and the Chiefs have been so reliable on defense this year. This shouldn’t be a 38-35 game like last year, but the Chiefs won that too with Mahomes on a high-ankle sprain and now he’s healthy for this one. I just think it’s hard to bet against him, but I do see the path for a San Francisco victory. I’m just not trusting their defense enough to take it. If you gave this offense the 2019 San Francisco defense, then hands down I am picking the 49ers to win this game. But that’s just not the case in 2023.
I’ll be back tomorrow night with a season-ending recap of it all. Hopefully it’ll be a memorable night cause the more I see the TD odds getting worse for CMC and the field, the more worried I am we’re getting some 17-9 dud as this season has been filled with island game disappointments. But let’s think positively and that both teams will score at least 20 points and give us a lot to talk about.
Final: Chiefs 24, 49ers 20 (Super Bowl MVP: Patrick Mahomes)
Captain Comeback: NFL Analysis by Scott Kacsmar 