Week 7 in the NFL is off to an entertaining start with Chicago’s 30-24 victory over the Patriots. We have some more quality matchups this Sunday, including a potential Super Bowl preview on Sunday night between the Chiefs (5-0) and Seahawks (3-3).
Chiefs at Seahawks: MVP vs. OPOY Distinction
Sunday night’s big game has the leading rusher (Kenneth Walker) and leading receiver/Triple Crown candidate (Jaxon Smith-Njigba) in the NFL. That makes both players heavy contenders for the Offensive Player of the Year (OPOY) award, which JSN won last year and Walker has the best odds for (+230) at the moment.
But some think both players should be high up there in the NFL MVP odds race as well. But Walker has just +8000 odds and isn’t even the highest non-quarterback as Jahmyr Gibbs (Lions) is +5000 at FanDuel. JSN is +40000, which is at least ahead of Sam Darnold (+50000), his struggling quarterback.
Since 2007, every MVP winner except for Adrian Peterson in 2012 was a quarterback. Since 2019, every OPOY winner was a running back or wide receiver who led the league in the yardage stat for their position. I think that’s been valid too as quarterback is the most valuable position, and the MVP should almost always be the best quarterback that year. OPOY is a nice consolation prize to the yardage winner. The stat hound.
But given the lack of historic quarterback seasons post-COVID, there has been more clamoring for voters to think outside the box and honor another position like a running back, which used to win MVP with more frequency than today’s “almost never” approach.
The problem is most can never exceed the value of their quarterback, and Patrick Mahomes having almost 10x better odds at +900 than Walker also signifies the popularity contest aspect of this. Note that Jared Goff is only +2500 compared to +5000 for Gibbs, because Goff carries a negative stigma. Always has. Mahomes is still Mahomes; the guy who had the best start in NFL history without productive running backs in Kansas City.
But leave it up to some NFL fans/media to act like Kenneth Walker glamming it up for five games against the weakest portion of the Chiefs’ schedule is somehow a negative for Mahomes. I’ve already seen tweets that a Walker MVP would disqualify Mahomes from GOAT discussions, and that he’s being “carried” by his running back – who never played this well in Seattle by the way – and isn’t even as valuable to his team as Fred Warner, an off-ball linebacker who doesn’t even rush the passer.
Once again, the best quarterback always gets held to the most ridiculous standards. Mahomes goes his first eight seasons as a starter without a 1,000-yard rusher, and people couldn’t wait to use a 5-game run by Walker to diminish him. I can assure you this hasn’t happened to other QBs in comparable situations:
- Did we not see Josh Allen somehow still get two first-place MVP votes in 2025 after James Cook won the rushing title?
- Only Buffalo fans cared in 2024 that Lamar Jackson had a career year as a passer with Derrick Henry feeding off him in a mutually beneficial relationship in Baltimore.
- No one was trying to belittle Tom Brady in 2004 when the Patriots added Corey Dillon and it helped him use more vertical passes instead of the dink-and-dunk short king he was in 2001-03.
- The Rams traded for Marshall Faulk in 1999 and got a 1000-yard rushing/1000-yard receiving season out of him, but Kurt Warner was still the MVP and catalyst for that Super Bowl season and the birth of the Greatest Show on Turf.
Walker has played great, and a big part of his greatness is the way he’s broken tackles at an absurd rate. But without getting knee deep into an MVP discussion after six games, I just want to clarify that the MVP odds are a projection on what will happen the rest of the season rather than a current implied probability of who is leading so far.
And the odds are basically correct. Maybe Walker should be higher than +8000, but Mahomes is worthy of a top 3 ranking as the quarterback of the only undefeated team in the AFC who is leading the NFL in yards per drive and game on offense. Mahomes is still averaging 261.8 passing yards per game (ranked 9th) with the third-highest passing success rate (54.3%) in the league. That’s not someone getting carried by a RB.
Speaking of carry, look what happened in the game the Chiefs were pushed to the brink the most against the Colts in overtime, a 33-30 shootout. Mahomes threw for 382 yards and 3 touchdowns in that one, including some huge third-and-long conversions and multiple go-ahead drives in crunch time. He was the MVP of that game.
The Chiefs lead the NFL in scoring differential per game thru Week 6, and they have been accused of “playing with their food” in some of these games as they could have easily won by even bigger margins against the Chargers, Dolphins, and Raiders if they played smarter. They haven’t played a tough schedule at all, though they have arguably the toughest remaining slate in 2026.
But the game against the Colts was telling in who they had to rely on, and it’s going to happen again later in the season starting on Thanksgiving when the Chiefs have that gauntlet of Bills, Rams, Bengals on the road followed by the Patriots and 49ers. If Walker is still healthy and playing like this, then hats off to him. He’s probably been the most fun back to watch in the NFL this year since Le’Veon Bell in 2014. And he’ll probably win OPOY.
But if the Chiefs want to get back to doing Chiefs things like having an elite offense that gets the team the No. 1 seed and sets them up for another Super Bowl run, it’s going to have to be with Mahomes leading the way in most of those tough games later in the season. That’s why he’s the MVP candidate and Walker is still the OPOY candidate.
And Sunday night is maybe a great opportunity for Mahomes to step up, because he’s not going to have Rashee Rice again, his WR1. He already lost his best deep threat and I think best red-zone receiver in Tyquan Thornton. The Chiefs will also start two backup tackles on the road. That hurts Walker as well, but the loss of the wideouts combined with an ankle injury for Travis Kelce makes life much harder on Mahomes than anyone else this week as you know Seattle coach Mike Macdonald should cook up something good to avoid a Kenneth Walker Revenge Game getting dumped on their heads. It’s not the Seattle defense that is the problem; it’s Darnold and the offense.
The last time Mahomes played a Macdonald defense was the 2023 AFC Championship Game in Baltimore. He was on the money to Kelce early and they won 17-10. It might have to be that kind of score again with the injuries on offense. But it’s not normal for a HOF quarterback to have this much flux at receiver and offensive tackle like Mahomes has dealt with since 2022.
It’s even less common to have the level of success he’s continued to have despite these roster holes. Let him have Walker. He’s allowed to have something useful on offense around him.
NFL Week 7 Predictions
I kind of picked the push on Thursday night with the Bears winning by exactly 3, but I’m taking the win on the spread there. It was always Chicago by one score.
PIT-NO: I think Aaron Rodgers stays hot in Paris against a bottom-ranked scoring defense. Also, I’m sure his wife would be pissed he didn’t have more time to show her around Paris (if she was real).
TB-CAR: Starting to trust the Panthers in this division with that offense, and I think Todd Bowles is in the territory of the first coach fired.
SF-ATL: No Mike Evans and Deebo? Speaking of the MVP discourse, let’s see what impact that has on Brock Purdy when he has JAGS at wide receiver and can only rely on future HOFers at TE, RB, and LT.. But I think the Falcons have a 2025 Buffalo or Rams type performance at home and steal this one.
CIN-BAL: Damnit Lamar, are we doing this again? The spread flipped about 4.5 points with the expectations he won’t be able to go again in a huge game for the AFC North. I don’t trust Tyler Huntley to score enough though it’d be nice to see him expose that Cincinnati defense that I still don’t trust as championship worthy.
NYG-HOU: No problem with giving J.J. McCarthy a shot when you know what Jameis Winston is. The Texans are not a bully on defense like they were in 2024-25. I’m still taking the Texans to win because the offense is looking good, but I think the Giants can at least stay within 10. Backdoor cover potential always there.
MIA-NYJ: Yuck. I just don’t think the Jets are good enough to trust an easy cover. I’ll hedge and take Miami ATS coming off the bye. Division games are ripe for weirdness.
CLE-TEN: They played a close one last year. You know the Browns are shaky at 4-2 when they’re only a 1.5-point favorite against this dreadful Titans team. But sad to say, I could see Watson getting a 5th GWD of the season here.
IND-MIN: Are the Colts going to blow a 33-point in this one like in 2022? Where’s Jeff Saturday when you need him? I still don’t believe in Minnesota, but I think they find a way to win another close one for KOC.
DEN-ARI: Denver is a rough watch and another team farming GWDs for playing poorly the first three quarters. The Cardinals are coming off that big upset of the Rams but that was a division game. I’ll take the Broncos to lock down Brissett and get the win even if it’s by 5 points.
LAR-LV: At this point, who knows? The Rams could beat or lose to any team in the NFL on any given Sunday this year. Losing Davante Adams hurts. Puka left a practice injured too this week. It’s not looking great and the Raiders have played teams (minus NE) tough. Could easily see Cousins outdueling Stafford late for the win here, but I guess I’m going down with the ship and still picking the Rams another week.
GB-DET: Big one here for the NFC North. I’m going to take the Lions for coming off a bye at home with a great offense that is clicking right now. Packers are playing better though, and with the Lions only turning it over once in Week 1, you never know when that regression disaster game is coming when they turn it over 4-5 times and lose. But I don’t love the 3-point spread for GB (I’d be taking them at 5.5 probably), so I’m going to side with Detroit for now.
KC-SEA: I had a long preview written for this game and I’m not seeing the link available on that site. Bummer. But I said after Super Bowl 59 I would not pick the Chiefs in a big game against an elite defense when they had multiple linemen out. This is another one of those games, and while the Seahawks haven’t shown an overwhelming pass rush this year, they are capable of greatness on that side of the ball. Still No. 1 in yards allowed at the moment .
Throw in the injured receivers for the Chiefs, the lack of moves they’ve made at that position after the Raiders game, and I just see them struggling on the road here offensively. Can still win if Darnold plays poorly and throws some picks forcing it to JSN. I kind of want to pick the Chiefs to win a 17-14 game here (same score Denver beat Seattle last week), but I could see the Seahawks winning a 23-16 game too with Darnold hitting some YOLO balls this week against a Chiefs defense that hasn’t been tested much either by the schedule.
DAL-PHI: Can the Cowboys go for the trifecta of prime-time losses? I absolutely think Tanner McKee can pull this off and look like 2017 Nick Foles against that defense. It’s that bad. Someone has to win a fvcking game in the NFC East again this season. Why not the Eagles at home against the team they hate most?
