NFL 2026 Week 8 Predictions: The One Where the NFC East Forced Itself On Us Edition

It’s Week 8 in the NFL and there are some really good games this week, especially with key division races in the AFC North, NFC North, and AFC West. There’s also a Bills vs. Ravens game that could be good with the return of Lamar Jackson.

But what is the NFL leaving in prime time on Sunday night? An NFC East shit-fest between the Eagles (2-5) and Commanders (1-4-1). We already had to watch the Eagles lose 38-21 on Monday night against Dallas, and now they’re a 5.5-point underdog to a 1-win Washington team that hasn’t been fun to watch since they lost the 2024 NFC Championship Game in Philadelphia.

All these great games and it just so happens that they can’t flex any of them in.

  • Oh, we can’t do Steelers-Browns in prime time again or do Vikings-Lions (SNF in Week 15) even though the Eagles and Cowboys get both of their games in a national window (they meet again on Thanksgiving).
  • We can’t flex Chiefs-Broncos in a battle for first place because God forbid the Chiefs are on SNF two weeks in a row even though we’ve recently watched the Falcons and Cowboys in three straight prime-time games.
  • We can’t do Bills-Ravens because the Ravens play on Thursday night (more valid at least).

Instead, let’s get the battle to stay out of last place in the first or second-worst division in the NFL this year. I hope the day comes where this NFC East bias bullshit comes to an end and the NFL starts giving us games people actually want to watch in prime time instead of relying on market size. The ratings don’t back it up that more people want to watch the Eagles and Commanders.

Does Jerry Jones have to meet his maker before we can just collectively move on from these teams in prime time so often? Whatever it takes, I’m ready for a change in how the NFL treats that division on the schedule.

NFL Week 8 Predictions

Spiritually, I should have nailed the correct score on Thursday night as I had the Packers beating Carolina 27-20. It ended 27-19 because a team that is now 2/11 on 2PC under Dave Canales thought it was being smart with this newfangled strategy of going for 2 early that I don’t think is a real difference maker, especially when you have put on tape that you suck far more than league average at these types of plays with your short QB.

NFL Week 8 Predictions

TEN-CIN: The Bengals can get to 5-2 and still objectively won’t have an impressive win in 2026. But after what they did in Miami, I don’t trust them not to let the Titans cover in the backdoor.

BAL-BUF: The Ravens narrowly lost their last two games at Buffalo in the 2024 AFC-DIV and Week 1 last year. It wouldn’t shock me if they found a way to lose this game by 1-3 points too. But I think the vibes are bad coming out of Baltimore after a 35-13 drubbing last week, Lamar might be rusty and not able to run 100%, and the Bills are rested off a bye week.

ARI-DAL: Would be a classic Dallas letdown spot. They’ve lost some games they were heavily favored to the Cards in recent years, including 2025. But I think they’ll win this week.

CLE-PIT: I think Aaron Rodgers is playing better than he was in the first meeting, and the offense showed it could sustain drives in Cleveland. Just have to avoid the sacks and picks, which I think he will at home. And I think with every win being a GWD for Cleveland, it’s about time for some regression for Deshaun Watson as they get to Predator in the 4Q of this one to take him down for the win and first place.

IND-JAX: Firesale going on in Indy. I think the Jaguars come back rested from London trips and start going on a run here with a win by 11+ to start here.

MIN-DET: One of the worst 6-0 teams I’ve ever seen, the Vikings should go down this week. But after the Lions beat GB 20-17 last week, it wouldn’t shock me if that’s the same score here too.

ATL-TB: Hardest division to get a read on other than none of these teams are going far in the playoffs. Baker Mayfield came back last week and barely had to throw for the team to score 43 points. I’m just going to pick them at home, though we’ll see if Penix can have success against that defense the way Kirk Cousins did when he was there.

LV-NYJ: Raiders could stop the slide here, but I think Geno Smith has one of his best games to stick it to the Raiders. Maybe even a Cousins interception by the defense that never gets any to get a start on the Mendoza era next time out after a fifth-straight loss.

LAC-LAR: Battle of Los Angeles and who is the most disappointing team in the NFL this season. You know, with the way the Rams blow leads and the way Justin Herbert has failed on seven straight 4QC/GWD attempts, I’m not sure I’d want to see him with the ball late in this one and a one-score margin. He’s due for a win at some point here after the Chargers have lost 9 straight. But I’m going to trust the Rams to get it done and win by 7+.

KC-DEN: It sounds like Rashee Rice and Jaylon Moore are back, but now the defense is down two corners (Sneed and Delane). That should help Bo Nix, who didn’t even try to throw deep in Week 1 but is coming off his most vertical game of 2026 vs. Arizona. I picked the Chiefs to go 10-7 and split the season series with Denver. I’m not backing away from it now. Denver wins and the Chiefs make a move or two before the trade deadline after another road loss to a contender.

NE-MIA: Not a game I’d bet on. We’ll see if the Dolphins can build off their first win in a home spot they’ve often had success against NE with over the years. But I’m still going to back the Patriots as I don’t like the talent on Miami.

PHI-WAS: Who knows? I’ll split the difference and take the Eagles to cover, Washington to win. It came down to a late 2PC in Week 1 but obviously the Eagles have lost a lot of talent since.

CHI-SEA: Really good offense (Ben Johnson) vs. defense (Mike Macdonald) matchup for these coaches. Johnson is 14-3 ATS in non-division games, and the last time he played a Macdonald defense (2024 Lions vs. Seahawks), his passing offense completed 100% of its 19 attempts. I don’t think Caleb Williams will come close to doing that against this defense, but the way you beat Seattle is having some balance (run the ball) and getting takeaways to force short fields. The Bears do those two things well, so I’m going with the upset here and backing Chicago.

2026 NFL Stat Oddity: Week 7

NFL Stat Oddity 2026

If I’m just being honest, the Sunday action wasn’t very good in the NFL, and the best game of Week 7 was on Thursday night between the Patriots and Bears. A refreshing display of two young quarterbacks playing well from the 2024 draft.

But I think I know why things felt off on Sunday. Despite it bringing the week’s count to nine games with a comeback opportunity, we only had one lead change in the fourth quarter, and that happened 24 seconds into the fourth quarter in Minnesota against the Colts.

We had a few other games where a fourth-quarter tie was broken, including an overtime game in Houston. But those games involved some funky coaching decisions where the home team got lucky in Detroit, and the Browns got away with an egregious false start on their game-winning drive.

Sunday’s two island games in Paris and SNF were also low on possessions, so they didn’t take long to get through, and the stats were depressed from both. That added to some of the malaise of the day. Not that I expect things to get any better on Monday night, but Tanner McKee lighting up Dallas would be entertaining at least.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Packers at Lions: Game of the Week (But Not Really)

This had the makings (and yardage) of a fun shootout. But in the end, it was a 20-17 tussle in the NFC North. The Packers started and ended their day with missed field goals, and the Lions had their first turnovers (that’s plural) since Week 1.

I don’t know if Tom Brady had money on the Lions and his presence in the building led to the Packers missing a 26-yard field goal and 35-yard field goal (blocked) as only the LOAT could conjure, but the Packers had another terrible day on special teams. At least Josh Jacobs looked good in his return, scoring a touchdown and putting up 55 receiving yards. Regular running game was still a bit stagnant (19 carries for 60 yards).

Jared Goff threw for 303 yards, 153 to Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Jameson Williams hogged both touchdowns on a day where tight end Sam LaPorta had just one catch for 18 yards.

But the game was sloppy, and you can question some of the coaching. The Packers were aggressive early with three conversions on fourth down, though when they went to the well one time too many, they came up empty before halftime on 4th-and-4. The only good news is Jahmyr Gibbs answered that stop with a red-zone fumble with 0:19 left in the second quarter.

But Dan Campbell is going to do Dan Campbell things on fourth down, and maybe that rubs off on Matt LaFleur in these matchups. Campbell failed on a 4th-and-5 at the Green Bay 6 late in the third quarter when a chip shot field goal could have given him a 20-14 lead.

After the Packers tied the game at 17, the Lions had another decision on 4th-and-1 at their own 24 with just under 5:00 left. Campbell went for it again, and Gibbs was stuffed for a 2-yard loss. That decision drew the most ire of any coaching decision on Sunday. The fourth-down models out there were reportedly split on it, so you know it’s close at the very least.

I think it was a mistake that ended up not costing Campbell because he got lucky that the special teams ended up blocking the 35-yard kick with 3:21 left.

If you look at the play the Lions ran, they would have been lucky to get a yard. So, let’s say you go for it and convert it. You’re still 75 yards away from the end zone. For all you know, you might be punting after the next three snaps and with less time left, making it less likely you see the ball again. But that’s the successful side, leaving you 75 yards away from the end zone with possession.

On the flip side, if you get stopped like they did, you’re making it far more likely that the Packers have easy access to a score to go up 20-17 or 24-17. Then you’d need a desperate scoring drive. But you’re gifting them that field position. You don’t know they’re going to screw it up and not get the field goal.

I don’t buy the reason that “Green Bay controls the clock” with that much time. Good luck to them if you think they can run out the clock and kick a last-second field goal against a team that has four clock stoppages left. The Lions were likely going to get another possession, and this was a 17-17 game; not a 31-31 efficient shootout. Teams were making mistakes here. It wasn’t a crisp day.

So, I would have been fine with a punt there. It ended up working out as the Lions had the ball back with 3:21 left at their own 25 anyway. It’s as if they got the yard and 90 seconds magically disappeared. One completion to LaPorta and a roughing penalty practically put them in field goal range, which just feels so easy to do anymore when you gotta have it.

A neutral zone infraction on Green Bay on 3rd-and-5 gave the Lions an automatic first down after the 2-minute warning, which really hurt. The Packers were going to let Gibbs score (he had -425 odds to do so too) as their last hope on third down, but he wisely took a dive. Might want to learn how to slide better because he risked a season-ending knee or ankle injury to do it.

The Lions made the 22-yard field goal to get the 20-17 win and move to 4-2, which still has them in third place in the division with the Vikings (6-0) and Bears (5-2). I still think Chicago should probably win this division again as the team with the best chance to show real growth over last year and be very good on both sides of the ball. The Packers and Lions showed some of their dumb tendencies in this one, and the Vikings have that dreadful offense that shouldn’t be this dreadful.

But these games are important in a division that is aiming for history with back-to-back years with everyone above .500.

Chiefs at Seahawks: Super Bowl-Esque If You Mean LV and LIX

Had last season gone better and the Chiefs returned to another Super Bowl to face the 2025 Seahawks, it may have looked like Sunday night but worse with Kenneth Walker on the other side. Even with Walker on their side, the 2026 Chiefs were held to a single field goal and did not reach the red zone once in a 20-3 loss that is just the fifth loss where the Chiefs trailed by double digits for the entire fourth quarter with Patrick Mahomes at quarterback.

Was it inevitable? Successful offensive minds like Kyle Shanahan (49ers), Josh McDaniels (Patriots), and Sean Payton (Broncos) have had their cracks at the Seahawks since the calendar turned to 2026 and things haven’t gone well for them either. The 2026 Seahawks are doing some historic things on defense again under Mike Macdonald, and the Chiefs went into this one without their best wideouts and without both starting offensive tackles.

About the only proven way to beat this Seattle team is to win the turnover battle and get short fields to score on that defense. Even when Washington scored 33 points this year, they were +3 in turnovers and had just one drive longer than 43 yards (it was a 60-yard touchdown drive). The 49ers got to 32 points in Seattle with a return score and touchdown drives of 11, 18, and 74 yards.

If you have to go the distance against this defense, you are probably screwed. On Sunday night, each offense only had eight drives, and both quarterbacks threw one bad pick for the only turnovers. However, Darnold’s pick in the end zone wasn’t returned far enough before halftime, and Harrison Butker was short on a 58-yard field goal. A bad sign for his leg strength.

That also means 25% of the Chiefs’ drives ended with a Butker miss as he was off again from 45 yards after a long drive with 8:33 left to play. That one would have made it 13-6 and possibly set up an interesting ending. Instead, the Seahawks drove for another touchdown with Emanuel Wilson breaking a 21-yard scoring run to go over 100 yards and outclass Walker on the night. That also means the Chiefs’ eighth and final drive came down 20-3 with 3:36 left. I would have put Justin Fields at quarterback at that point.

When the Seahawks aren’t turning the ball over, they’re golden. JSN is the most unstoppable wideout right now, and he was great again with 9/150/1 against all the corners the Chiefs could throw at him. Of course, the Chiefs hadn’t been tested by good WRs during their 5-0 start. Not one bit.

The Chiefs played the easiest portion of their schedule to get to 5-0. In their first big test of the season in terms of a Super Bowl contender, they failed miserably with one of the worst-played games of the Mahomes era.

  • The Seahawks were 11-of-16 on third down, converting seven times on 3rd-and-6+.
  • Seattle’s speed was not going to let Walker beat them; he had 18 touches for 57 yards and never gained more than 7 yards on any play.
  • Xavier “Kadarius Toney” Worthy failed miserably in another game as de-facto WR1 with 11 yards on 6 targets and a drop that left Mahomes visibly frustrated.
  • Mahomes was only credited with one sack, but it was on an odd-looking play where it looked like he wanted to do a quarterback draw and fumbled with a sandwich hit in the open field. Even if he pulled up and wanted to throw, no one was open on the play.

This should be the low point of the season for Kansas City’s offense, which should at least get Rashee Rice back next week for a more important game in Denver. It was always going to be tough to overcome this defense of a desperate team that lost two straight, and the Chiefs never came close to matching Seattle’s intensity.

But in terms of showcasing yourself as a Super Bowl contender again, this game feels like a major red flag on where the Chiefs are in 2026, and that’s not good enough. All the roster flaws were on full display, and it’s unlikely to get much better for them unless by some miracle Josh Simmons decides to play and Tyreek Hill signs on and is 75% of what he once was. That still leaves some serious issues with the pass rush and one idiot kicker who is washed.

If the Chiefs had to face the Seahawks in the Super Bowl, that would probably not go well either. When the Chiefs are playing musical chairs with their offensive tackles against a great defense, you simply can’t trust them to be anything short of a disaster. I’m not sure I can name a team that has succeeded in those circumstances, and the fact this happens this frequently for the Chiefs is the most troubling part of it all. Two Super Bowls, the last two games with Mahomes against Houston and Los Angeles in 2025, and now Sunday night.

If this game isn’t a wake-up call to Reid and Veach that the roster isn’t good enough, then nothing will be this year. They can’t just write this off to tough week on the road shorthanded. Because it’s going to happen again. And again. And again.

And they haven’t proven they can stop it.

Bengals at Ravens: Whoops, They Did It Again

Back so soon, Baltimore? It was just last week when I pointed out in the Cleveland loss how the Ravens are repeating so many of their greatest hits from losses of year’s past whether it’s the blown double-digit leads, the Derrick Henry-led running game disappearing, or Lamar Jackson being out with an injury.

If there wasn’t so much competition from the Chargers, Rams, and Texans, the Ravens (4-3) would be in the mix for the most disappointing team in the NFL this season. This team was a Super Bowl favorite in the AFC and it has a worse record than Todd Monken’s Browns (5-2) and John Harbaugh’s Giants (4-2-1) now.

People will say Jackson being out is the reason, but it’s so much bigger and systemic than that. Even his absence from injury is another issue as fans and some media members are catching on that Jackson will seemingly not play until he feels he’s 100%. You can debate if that’s the right move for his career or not, but just understand there are definitely some quarterbacks who would do more to push to play in a big game like this one. But not Jackson.

And after the latest blown double-digit lead (13-0 at halftime), the Ravens (4-3) are in last place in the AFC North with the Bengals getting the early tiebreaker edge over them. Who knows, Sunday might be the last time this season the Ravens were ahead of the Bengals in the AFC North standings.

Once again, this team had no problem taking a 13-0 lead into the half with Tyler Huntley significantly outplaying Joe Burrow. How often do you see Lamar throw for 215 yards on 21 passes in the first half of a game? Huntley did that here and he’s the lesser passer.

But the second half was a completely different story. Tee Higgins made huge catch after huge catch on the way to 148 yards and a touchdown. The Bengals ripped off five straight touchdown drives, including two that started in Baltimore territory after a turnover on downs and Huntley interception.

The Baltimore offense was again very complicit in the blown lead and loss. After moving the ball so well in the first half, the Ravens followed a three-and-out punt with an ill-advised 4th-and-2 incompletion at the Cincinnati 12 to start the fourth quarter. I probably would have kicked the field goal there to regain the lead given what we know about Cincinnati’s history of trailing in the fourth quarter with Burrow. But tight end Cuevas wasn’t even looking for the ball on a wasted possession.

That kind of sums up the Ravens in these games. Poor attention to detail, lack of focus, no leadership to lean on, bad coaching decisions, and a roster filled with stars who aren’t closers. Suddenly, they’re getting hit for big plays on defense and aiding the opponent with turnovers.

That’s how you become the third team to lead by 13+ points at halftime and still lose by 20+ points. Hadn’t been done since 1951.

Meanwhile, this is the second week in a row the Ravens pitched a first-half shutout, had the halftime lead and lost the game. That only happened one time ever to John Harbaugh and twice under Brian Billick’s watch. This is two weeks in a row just seven games into Jesse Minter’s tenure.

When Minter was in LA the last two years, the Chargers only blew two fourth-quarter leads. Sunday was technically not a fourth-quarter blown lead, but it was a third blown lead of 10+ points in the second half for Minter.

Harbaugh was the scapegoat for these losses. What happens now that he’s gone and things are only worse? You have to put the blame on the players and the person picking the players. That’s why I never felt good about saying it was Harbaugh when Baltimore’s issues year after year were players making critical errors at the worst times.

With Buffalo and Jacksonville up next, the Ravens are really at a tipping point in their season. Things could spiral out of control here if they don’t step up.

Steelers vs. Saints: Some Belle de Jour in Paris

The 16-10 final score in the NFL’s first regular-season game in Paris is extremely misleading. This game had just 13 total possessions between the Steelers (7) and Saints (6), and I didn’t even have to exclude any kneeldown-only drives to get that absurdly low number. Eight of the 13 drives had at least 11 plays to them, so this was a very offensive game despite the score.

Is 13 possessions a record low? No, the 2023 Raiders vs. Broncos season opener had 13 drives too, and it was really 12 when you remove a kneeldown before halftime. But 13 is definitely in record territory.

How did these teams sustain so many long drives despite only combining for two touchdowns and 26 points? There were many near-turnover opportunities as the Steelers came up empty on a few chances at fumble recoveries. They also dropped a pick early from Tyler Shough, though they got him on a big one to start the third quarter. The Saints also missed a 52-yard field goal early in the fourth quarter, and the Steelers took a late field goal off the board due to a game-ending penalty on the Saints. They ran out the clock instead.

I thought Aaron Rodgers played a very smart game, knowing when to check it down, when to go deep, and when to throw the ball at the feet of a receiver who was going to get blown up for a loss of yards or no gain. Shough wasn’t bad either with no running game to speak of (14 carries for 11 yards) while Jaylen Warren had another 101 rushing yards for the Steelers.

In the end, the better team won after the Steelers technically ran out the final 5:52 in a 16-10 final. The key play was Rodgers using his legs to gain 8 yards on a 3rd-and-6 scramble.

The Steelers are 5-2 with a shot for some revenge on Cleveland next week. The Saints fall to 2-5 in the NFC South.

49ers at Falcons: Injuries Catch Up to San Francisco

Maybe the Chiefs should take note of how the 49ers ran their offense through their running backs and tight ends in Atlanta because of all the injuries at wide receiver. Most notably, Mike Evans (Achilles) missed Sunday’s game, his first full game missed this season, and it had an impact thanks to Christian McCaffrey also temporarily leaving the game after a dominant start that helped the 49ers to a 14-3 lead.

Eventually, those injuries hurt the 49ers on their way to their first loss of 2026. Down 19-14 in scoring territory in the third quarter, Brock Purdy forced a pass that was intercepted by Jessie Bates. Even though the Falcons started at their own 10, they put together a 90-yard march that ended with Drake London’s first touchdown of the season (finally) to take a 26-14 lead.

Purdy was then sacked on a 4th-and-10 at the Atlanta 23 as the Falcons racked up two sacks, two picks, and also forced George Kittle to fumble in the final minute of this one. You may have thought a huge Bijan Robinson day would be the path to an upset for Atlanta, but he rushed 20 times for just 63 yards. He did have 5 catches for 59 yards, and Penix threw three touchdowns while taking no sacks and throwing no picks.

The 49ers were able to get the ball back in a 26-20 game with 4:02 left and the ball at midfield. But Purdy never saw the defender for another huge interception with 2:34 left. The Falcons ran the ball three times and added an insurance field goal to go up 29-20.

The 49ers need to get Evans and Deebo back ASAP as it hasn’t been a good six quarters without them going back to the Washington game.

Colts at Vikings: At Least They Didn’t Blow a 33-Point Lead Again

Four years ago, Jeff Saturday’s Colts infamously blew a record 33-0 lead in Minnesota. In 2026, I’m not sure the Vikings can even score over 33 points like that nor will they need to with the way Brian Flores’ defense is performing.

The Colts led for most of the game with Jonathan Taylor’s 38-yard touchdown run on their opening drive. But they struggled to add to it, and the Vikings were down 10-6 in the fourth quarter before Kyler Murray threw a go-ahead touchdown to tight end T.J. Hockenson.

The Colts had nearly the full quarter to answer, but they followed a punt with a missed 48-yard field goal with 4:22 left as kicking has been an issue ever since Adam Vinatieri retired. Meanwhile, a Minnesota kicker actually made a clutch kick from 52 yards to give the Vikings a 6-point lead, which I normally hate. But in the context of facing Daniel Jones, it’s probably fine. Jones had 64 net passing yards on 28 pass plays in this one.

Jones had 94 seconds to lead a touchdown drive, but it lasted two snaps before he threw a pick right to Harrison Smith to end the threat. That’s how the Vikings get to 6-0 and the NFL’s last remaining perfect record. Hard to believe it’s them.

You’d like to see the offense getting better as Murray had his full receiving corps, and the Colts have been one of the worst defenses this season. But a paltry 16 points at home with Murray throwing for 150 yards was enough to get another win.

The real test is next week in Detroit for this team.

Rams at Raiders: If McVay Blew a 28-3 Lead Here…

The Rams scored four straight touchdowns to end the first half as they led 28-3. They basically did whatever they wanted offensively with three touchdown passes from Matthew Stafford, and both running backs topped 90 yards and a score on the ground.

Kirk Cousins hadn’t done much of anything when it was 28-6 going into the fourth quarter. But the Raiders strung together a couple of touchdowns after getting a deflected pick. This could have been a one-score game if they didn’t fail on both two-point conversions in the quarter, so it remained a 28-18 game with 13:12 left. Plenty of time.

If Sean McVay was going to blow a 28-3 lead to this team, he might as well hang it up in Los Angeles. But the Rams had a vintage drive to put it away that consumed almost half the quarter before another touchdown run by Blake Corum. The Raiders got a field goal (35-21) and the Rams ran out the final 4:10.

I don’t know if the Rams (3-4) are necessarily back, but it was a much-needed win to end the slide. Meanwhile, the Raiders continue to be exposed for their lack of weapons at WR and pieces on defense outside of Maxx Crosby. They might still think they’re competing for a wild card berth, but I’d start thinking about starting Fernando Mendoza and let the rookie shake out the growing pains to help him along for 2027.

Broncos at Cardinals: Bo Nix Does His Tim Tebow Thing Early in the Game

I find it funny how Bo Nix gets dinged for playing poor football for three quarters before going off in the fourth quarter. That’s what John Elway did for so many years and Denver fans loved it, and Tim Tebow was taking it to a crazier level in that 2011 season.

But Nix had a better game against a lesser Arizona defense this time, and he did something different in this one. He saw the opening for a long scramble that turned into a 62-yard touchdown run to take a 13-6 lead in the second quarter. Even Tebow and Elway never did that in the NFL.

Nix finished with an 80.3 QBR, though I can only imagine how high it’d be if that was a third-down scramble in the fourth quarter instead of a 2nd-and-7 play in the second quarter.

But that changed the complexion of the game, and R.J. Harvey took a short pass 52 yards for a touchdown in the third quarter for another big play to help Denver not have to rely on the fourth quarter this week. The Cardinals had the ball at the 1-yard line with first-and-goal at the 2-minute warning in a 30-16 game, so they were still going to need to recover an onside kick to make this interesting. But they couldn’t even get the first touchdown after an impressive goal-line stand by Denver to end this one.

Giants at Texans: Your First-Place New York Football Giants

With a division title a real possibility, I applaud John Harbaugh for sticking with J.J. McCarthy after his almost comeback last week from a 34-10 deficit. We all know what Jameis Winston is (and what he isn’t) by now, so why not see what you really have with McCarthy?

“Nine” didn’t disappoint either. He had two touchdown drives and the Giants missed two field goals in the first half alone as he hit 9-of-10 passes to start the day with a third-down drop by Malik Nabers thrown in there too. He was feeling it, because the Houston defense is no longer elite.

It’s not even good at this point, and I have a hard time understanding why when it’s still DeMeco Ryans’ scheme, and they haven’t been decimated by injuries like you’d expect to see drag a unit down. They just gave up 252 yards through the air to McCarthy, and the Giants also rushed for 188 yards, which proved critical in overtime.

It’s truly one of the most disappointing losses in franchise history after an impressive shootout win over Jacksonville in London a week ago. The Texans came home, they were a 10.5-point favorite, and they laid an egg. Sure, C.J. Stroud didn’t have any turnovers, Marvin Harrison Jr. caught his first touchdown, and Tank Dell even contributed a 43-yard catch on a deflected ball for his first action since a gruesome knee injury in December 2024.

But once again, offensive competency was not enough for the Texans, who forced overtime with a late touchdown drive. But the Giants won the coin toss and decided to kick, which I still think is the right strategy most of the time. Let Houston be bound by conservative three-down football and give the loose cannon McCarthy four downs to answer if he needs a do-or-die score.

It didn’t come to that. The Texans didn’t gain a yard on three plays for a quick punt, and McCarthy just had to complete one 9-yard pass to Nabers before his running game did the rest. Cam Skattebo broke off a 42-yard run, and he even slid to make sure he wouldn’t fumble the ball in another overtime after that got him effectively benched last week. Then they put Devin Singletary, the former Texans back, in the game and he finished them off with a 30-yard touchdown run to end it. No field goal shenanigans.

Just like that, the deflated Texans are 2-5 and feeling hopeless again while the Giants (4-2-1) lead the NFC East as the only team with a winning record in the division.

Browns at Titans: Another Predator Sequel in the Fourth Quarter

At this point, I swear Deshaun Watson is purposely playing like ass early to set up opportunities for game-winning drives late to endear himself to the fans. At least he threw for over 300 yards in this one. Nice defense, Saleh.

Even though Tony Pollard had a monster day (129 yards, 3 TD), it wasn’t enough for the Titans. Probably should have seen the warning flags early when their 14-0 lead was built on two touchdown drives that covered a total of 89 yards. The offense didn’t score again until the fourth quarter but at least Cam Ward was able to lead tying field goal and touchdown drives.

But with the game tied 24-24 in the final minute, Watson had the ball at his 45 with just 0:28 left when maybe the most controversial play of the game happened. Cleveland’s right tackle got away with an egregious false start that wasn’t called, and Harold Fannin took the short pass 36 yards to set up the winning field goal from 32 yards on the final snap.

I don’t know how you can miss that one, and I don’t know how there isn’t some mechanism in place in the final 2:00 whether it’s replay assist or being able to challenge something so obvious and game changing. Maybe the Browns take the 5-yard penalty and still hit a pass to kick the winning field goal, but that play should not have counted.

The Browns are 5-2, but I still see no reason to believe in them as a real contender. They slum it with the worst teams and are blowing through their clutch wins before Halloween.

Buccaneers at Panthers: The NFC South Is Destined to Suck

I really do hate this division, because once you start to think a team is figuring things out like Carolina, they just shit the bed their next game. This division produces some unseemly blowouts out of nowhere too like how we saw Carolina win 34-3 in Atlanta in Week 2.

But Sunday was an embarrassment at home for the Panthers and Bryce Young, who took five sacks and had three turnovers, including a fumble returned for a touchdown to make it 17-0 in the second quarter.

Baker Mayfield returned for Tampa Bay, but they could have won this game with a blindfolded Blaine Gabbert if they had to. Mayfield finished just 7-of-11 for 64 yards and a touchdown. The Buccaneers, who rushed for over 250 yards, are the ninth team in the modern era (second since 1979) to score at least 43 points with no more than 65 net passing yards.

I know division games can be weird, but 43-13? Back to the drawing board for the Panthers (3-3), who have a quick turnaround with Green Bay on Thursday night.

Dolphins at Jets: Crack Open the Faygo, 2008 Lions and 2017 Browns

Leave it up to the Jets to let the 2026 Dolphins get their first win in Week 7. The Stooges of the AFC East take care of their own so that the bottom isn’t rock bottom in the NFL. Not that I ever thought Miami was going to seriously challenge 0-17, but they won’t be joining the 2008 Lions and 2017 Browns as the only teams to go 0-16 or worse.

Miami’s offense had by far its best game of the season with rookie Caleb Douglas catching two touchdowns, Ollie Gordon rushed for 103 yards and a touchdown, and a huge sack of Geno Smith on third down forced a field goal in the fourth quarter when the Jets were 3 yards away from the tying touchdown. Miami added another long touchdown to Douglas, and then they were able to run out the final 3:17 on the clock to not give the Jets another chance in a 28-25 game.

In fact, it was a bit ballsy to go quarterback run on 4th-and-1 at the New York 49 with 2:00 left. If you get stopped there, the Jets are a first down away from game-tying field goal range. But Willis picked it up and the game was over. Miami finally has a win.

Next Week

Not crazy about Panthers-Packers on TNF after Sunday’s games. But it beats seeing another NFC East matchup. I think we get a break this week from the 9:30 AM games even with the clock turning back an hour.

The big 1 PM game should be Ravens-Bills, but how can we take anyone’s word for it that Lamar Jackson will actually play? If he’s “not close” to 100%, then I doubt we see him at this point as Baltimore’s season falls apart. Otherwise, Vikings at Lions is a good one that could finally hand the Vikings a loss. But I’ll be mostly watching Browns at Steelers in that slot.

Chargers at Rams is the LA Disappointment Bowl. Chiefs at Broncos is a lot more interesting now. Chiefs could very well lose that one too for similar reasons to Seattle game. Eagles-Commanders is more NFC East bullshit in prime time on Sunday night. Hate they didn’t flex that out. Chicago at Seattle could be very interesting on MNF. Another chance for Ben Johnson to show his value against a defense that many of his top peers have floundered against.

NFL 2026 Week 7 Predictions: MVP vs. OPOY Distinction Edition

Week 7 in the NFL is off to an entertaining start with Chicago’s 30-24 victory over the Patriots. We have some more quality matchups this Sunday, including a potential Super Bowl preview on Sunday night between the Chiefs (5-0) and Seahawks (3-3).

Chiefs at Seahawks: MVP vs. OPOY Distinction

Sunday night’s big game has the leading rusher (Kenneth Walker) and leading receiver/Triple Crown candidate (Jaxon Smith-Njigba) in the NFL. That makes both players heavy contenders for the Offensive Player of the Year (OPOY) award, which JSN won last year and Walker has the best odds for (+230) at the moment.

But some think both players should be high up there in the NFL MVP odds race as well. But Walker has just +8000 odds and isn’t even the highest non-quarterback as Jahmyr Gibbs (Lions) is +5000 at FanDuel. JSN is +40000, which is at least ahead of Sam Darnold (+50000), his struggling quarterback.

NFL MVP Odds from FanDuel
2026 NFL MVP Odds from FanDuel (10/24/2026)

Since 2007, every MVP winner except for Adrian Peterson in 2012 was a quarterback. Since 2019, every OPOY winner was a running back or wide receiver who led the league in the yardage stat for their position. I think that’s been valid too as quarterback is the most valuable position, and the MVP should almost always be the best quarterback that year. OPOY is a nice consolation prize to the yardage winner. The stat hound.

But given the lack of historic quarterback seasons post-COVID, there has been more clamoring for voters to think outside the box and honor another position like a running back, which used to win MVP with more frequency than today’s “almost never” approach.

The problem is most can never exceed the value of their quarterback, and Patrick Mahomes having almost 10x better odds at +900 than Walker also signifies the popularity contest aspect of this. Note that Jared Goff is only +2500 compared to +5000 for Gibbs, because Goff carries a negative stigma. Always has. Mahomes is still Mahomes; the guy who had the best start in NFL history without productive running backs in Kansas City.

But leave it up to some NFL fans/media to act like Kenneth Walker glamming it up for five games against the weakest portion of the Chiefs’ schedule is somehow a negative for Mahomes. I’ve already seen tweets that a Walker MVP would disqualify Mahomes from GOAT discussions, and that he’s being “carried” by his running back – who never played this well in Seattle by the way – and isn’t even as valuable to his team as Fred Warner, an off-ball linebacker who doesn’t even rush the passer.

Once again, the best quarterback always gets held to the most ridiculous standards. Mahomes goes his first eight seasons as a starter without a 1,000-yard rusher, and people couldn’t wait to use a 5-game run by Walker to diminish him. I can assure you this hasn’t happened to other QBs in comparable situations:

  • Did we not see Josh Allen somehow still get two first-place MVP votes in 2025 after James Cook won the rushing title?
  • Only Buffalo fans cared in 2024 that Lamar Jackson had a career year as a passer with Derrick Henry feeding off him in a mutually beneficial relationship in Baltimore.
  • No one was trying to belittle Tom Brady in 2004 when the Patriots added Corey Dillon and it helped him use more vertical passes instead of the dink-and-dunk short king he was in 2001-03.
  • The Rams traded for Marshall Faulk in 1999 and got a 1000-yard rushing/1000-yard receiving season out of him, but Kurt Warner was still the MVP and catalyst for that Super Bowl season and the birth of the Greatest Show on Turf.

Walker has played great, and a big part of his greatness is the way he’s broken tackles at an absurd rate. But without getting knee deep into an MVP discussion after six games, I just want to clarify that the MVP odds are a projection on what will happen the rest of the season rather than a current implied probability of who is leading so far.

And the odds are basically correct. Maybe Walker should be higher than +8000, but Mahomes is worthy of a top 3 ranking as the quarterback of the only undefeated team in the AFC who is leading the NFL in yards per drive and game on offense. Mahomes is still averaging 261.8 passing yards per game (ranked 9th) with the third-highest passing success rate (54.3%) in the league. That’s not someone getting carried by a RB.

Speaking of carry, look what happened in the game the Chiefs were pushed to the brink the most against the Colts in overtime, a 33-30 shootout. Mahomes threw for 382 yards and 3 touchdowns in that one, including some huge third-and-long conversions and multiple go-ahead drives in crunch time. He was the MVP of that game.

The Chiefs lead the NFL in scoring differential per game thru Week 6, and they have been accused of “playing with their food” in some of these games as they could have easily won by even bigger margins against the Chargers, Dolphins, and Raiders if they played smarter. They haven’t played a tough schedule at all, though they have arguably the toughest remaining slate in 2026.

But the game against the Colts was telling in who they had to rely on, and it’s going to happen again later in the season starting on Thanksgiving when the Chiefs have that gauntlet of Bills, Rams, Bengals on the road followed by the Patriots and 49ers. If Walker is still healthy and playing like this, then hats off to him. He’s probably been the most fun back to watch in the NFL this year since Le’Veon Bell in 2014. And he’ll probably win OPOY.

But if the Chiefs want to get back to doing Chiefs things like having an elite offense that gets the team the No. 1 seed and sets them up for another Super Bowl run, it’s going to have to be with Mahomes leading the way in most of those tough games later in the season. That’s why he’s the MVP candidate and Walker is still the OPOY candidate.

And Sunday night is maybe a great opportunity for Mahomes to step up, because he’s not going to have Rashee Rice again, his WR1. He already lost his best deep threat and I think best red-zone receiver in Tyquan Thornton. The Chiefs will also start two backup tackles on the road. That hurts Walker as well, but the loss of the wideouts combined with an ankle injury for Travis Kelce makes life much harder on Mahomes than anyone else this week as you know Seattle coach Mike Macdonald should cook up something good to avoid a Kenneth Walker Revenge Game getting dumped on their heads. It’s not the Seattle defense that is the problem; it’s Darnold and the offense.

The last time Mahomes played a Macdonald defense was the 2023 AFC Championship Game in Baltimore. He was on the money to Kelce early and they won 17-10. It might have to be that kind of score again with the injuries on offense. But it’s not normal for a HOF quarterback to have this much flux at receiver and offensive tackle like Mahomes has dealt with since 2022.

It’s even less common to have the level of success he’s continued to have despite these roster holes. Let him have Walker. He’s allowed to have something useful on offense around him.

NFL Week 7 Predictions

I kind of picked the push on Thursday night with the Bears winning by exactly 3, but I’m taking the win on the spread there. It was always Chicago by one score.

NFL Week 7 Predictions

PIT-NO: I think Aaron Rodgers stays hot in Paris against a bottom-ranked scoring defense. Also, I’m sure his wife would be pissed he didn’t have more time to show her around Paris (if she was real).

TB-CAR: Starting to trust the Panthers in this division with that offense, and I think Todd Bowles is in the territory of the first coach fired.

SF-ATL: No Mike Evans and Deebo? Speaking of the MVP discourse, let’s see what impact that has on Brock Purdy when he has JAGS at wide receiver and can only rely on future HOFers at TE, RB, and LT.. But I think the Falcons have a 2025 Buffalo or Rams type performance at home and steal this one.

CIN-BAL: Damnit Lamar, are we doing this again? The spread flipped about 4.5 points with the expectations he won’t be able to go again in a huge game for the AFC North. I don’t trust Tyler Huntley to score enough though it’d be nice to see him expose that Cincinnati defense that I still don’t trust as championship worthy.

NYG-HOU: No problem with giving J.J. McCarthy a shot when you know what Jameis Winston is. The Texans are not a bully on defense like they were in 2024-25. I’m still taking the Texans to win because the offense is looking good, but I think the Giants can at least stay within 10. Backdoor cover potential always there.

MIA-NYJ: Yuck. I just don’t think the Jets are good enough to trust an easy cover. I’ll hedge and take Miami ATS coming off the bye. Division games are ripe for weirdness.

CLE-TEN: They played a close one last year. You know the Browns are shaky at 4-2 when they’re only a 1.5-point favorite against this dreadful Titans team. But sad to say, I could see Watson getting a 5th GWD of the season here.

IND-MIN: Are the Colts going to blow a 33-point in this one like in 2022? Where’s Jeff Saturday when you need him? I still don’t believe in Minnesota, but I think they find a way to win another close one for KOC.

DEN-ARI: Denver is a rough watch and another team farming GWDs for playing poorly the first three quarters. The Cardinals are coming off that big upset of the Rams but that was a division game. I’ll take the Broncos to lock down Brissett and get the win even if it’s by 5 points.

LAR-LV: At this point, who knows? The Rams could beat or lose to any team in the NFL on any given Sunday this year. Losing Davante Adams hurts. Puka left a practice injured too this week. It’s not looking great and the Raiders have played teams (minus NE) tough. Could easily see Cousins outdueling Stafford late for the win here, but I guess I’m going down with the ship and still picking the Rams another week.

GB-DET: Big one here for the NFC North. I’m going to take the Lions for coming off a bye at home with a great offense that is clicking right now. Packers are playing better though, and with the Lions only turning it over once in Week 1, you never know when that regression disaster game is coming when they turn it over 4-5 times and lose. But I don’t love the 3-point spread for GB (I’d be taking them at 5.5 probably), so I’m going to side with Detroit for now.

KC-SEA: I had a long preview written for this game and I’m not seeing the link available on that site. Bummer. But I said after Super Bowl 59 I would not pick the Chiefs in a big game against an elite defense when they had multiple linemen out. This is another one of those games, and while the Seahawks haven’t shown an overwhelming pass rush this year, they are capable of greatness on that side of the ball. Still No. 1 in yards allowed at the moment .

Throw in the injured receivers for the Chiefs, the lack of moves they’ve made at that position after the Raiders game, and I just see them struggling on the road here offensively. Can still win if Darnold plays poorly and throws some picks forcing it to JSN. I kind of want to pick the Chiefs to win a 17-14 game here (same score Denver beat Seattle last week), but I could see the Seahawks winning a 23-16 game too with Darnold hitting some YOLO balls this week against a Chiefs defense that hasn’t been tested much either by the schedule.

DAL-PHI: Can the Cowboys go for the trifecta of prime-time losses? I absolutely think Tanner McKee can pull this off and look like 2017 Nick Foles against that defense. It’s that bad. Someone has to win a fvcking game in the NFC East again this season. Why not the Eagles at home against the team they hate most?

NFL 2026 Week 6 Predictions: Can a Prime-Time Favorite Just Win in Regulation? Edition

The NFL kicked off Week 6 with a bit of history as you had three straight prime-time games in the regular season go to overtime since Sunday night. But this Thursday was a bit of a dud when Bo Nix tied the record for most game-winning drives through three seasons (15) in the most Bo Nix way possible by throwing for 107 yards on 27 attempts in a 17-14 overtime win.

The GWD was set up by another Sam Darnold interception, and Nix had two runs for 3 yards on an 8-yard drive that did not gain a first down.

I don’t know how Nix keeps doing this Elway-meets-Tebow thing as that’s now 12 game-winning drives in his last 20 starts. But with that win, that’s now 10 straight prime-time games in the NFL where the underdog won outright. The last favorite to win was the Rams on MNF against the Giants in Week 2.

I had to look up how insane that is, so I went back to 2006 when the NFL brought back Thursday Night Football. The 10-game streak of underdogs winning outright dwarfs everything as the next closest streak was 6 games, and that was during the 2020 COVID season where you had empty stadiums and record-setting offensive numbers.

Notice that three of the four streaks came in Sept/Oct. where the spreads may not be as accurate with everyone trying to get a read on these teams early in the season. Still, it’s been a wild streak as the previous worst record for favorites in any 10-game stretch since 2006 in prime time was 2-8.

We’ll see if it can continue another week.

NFL Week 6 Predictions

I expected Denver to win basically the way they did against Seattle (by capitalizing on Sam Darnold mistakes to win by 3 points and without an impressive offensive display.)

HOU-JAX: Looking forward to this one actually as I think it’s Houston’s last shot to compete for the AFC South this year. I’m actually going to go with them as I think the Jaguars could struggle with their backup LT against those Houston edge rushers (Anderson Jr. is playing great), and Houston’s offense is starting to figure things out. Jaguars have been more consistent this year but division games are always tough.

CHI-ATL: Sounds like we’re getting Caleb Williams vs. Michael Penix as the QBs. Penix is still technically 0-7 at GWDs even though he’s put the team in position multiple times to win. But I think Chicago bounces back in a big way with Caleb and wins this one late.

BAL-CLE: Another week without Lamar, but I think Tyler Huntley can hold it down and I don’t see the Browns scoring a ton here. That 3-1 start was pretty much a mirage.

NYJ-NE: The Patriots have had a few good games in a row now and usually take care of the Jets with few problems. I don’t expect much out of this game.

NO-NYG: Saints have given the Giants a ton of problems over the years, but I think Jameis gets it done at home as I just don’t trust the Saints right now.

TEN-IND: Division games can always be tougher than expected, but the Titans just lost 26-3 to winless Houston last week. This team just looks lost to me. I can’t trust them to cover and the Colts have been consistently beating them under Steichen.

CAR-PHI: In a normal week I wouldn’t feel bad at all with Tanner McKee starting for Jalen Hurts (blood clot). But these are not normal times for the Eagles. There’s no Saquon, A.J. Brown, or Lane Johnson for McKee this week. Panthers had the bye week too and the Eagles are coming off that shocking London loss. It wouldn’t surprise me if the Panthers win by 3 points for the Eagles to steal a cover, but I’m just going to go with the healthier, better rested team in Carolina that should be able to put up some points. They should have won in Philly in 2024 if Mr. Raccoon Eater (Xavier Legette) didn’t drop that TD.

PIT-TB: By my count, Aaron Rodgers is just 6-6 in the state of Florida with some of the ugliest losses of his career. Florida is where you go to die after retirement, but Rodgers is on a good streak of games with 3 TD passes. However, he’s down some WRs here, and the Bucs didn’t look so bad with Jalon Daniels in Dallas. He’ll start again for an injured Baker. The Steelers should win a road game eventually this season, but I’m just going to side with the Bucs winning this one at home as I think the Steelers lack the WRs to score many points, and I can see a mobile Daniels giving them problems on scrambles and broken plays. Bowles should blitz Rodgers too and test that OL.

ARI-LAR: Cards aren’t an explosive offense right now, and I think McVay is genuinely pissed at losing that Buffalo game. I think he’ll run it up here and the Rams win big to get back to .500. Don’t put it on a new kicker. Just kick a bad team’s ass.

BUF-LV: The Raiders were destroyed by the Patriots last week. They should play much better at home against a bad Buffalo defense, but I think Kirk Cousins’ lack of mobility will continue to give him some issues, and Greg Rousseau is having a special start for the pass rush. I think the Bills win by at least a TD.

LAC-KC: I liked the underdog line a lot more at +9.5, but this has to be your classic Chargers cover, Chiefs win type of game most likely. It doesn’t sound like Mahomes will have Josh Simmons or Rashee Rice, so another game without LT1 and WR1 (and his true best WR in Tyquan Thornton) for him. But they have Kenneth Walker, Kelce should step up, and Justin Herbert is on an 0-for-7 streak at GWDs.

Still, it’d be such a classic NFL thing for the 0-5 team to beat the 4-0 team in a division game. I do think it’s a game where the Chiefs will struggle. Maybe seeing that defense will wake up Herbert the way Buffalo brought Drake Maye back to life two weeks ago. But the Chiefs can’t afford to blow this one in a tough AFC race with harder games to come. I think they win but won’t cover.

DAL-GB: Here we go in prime time again with teams that played to a 40-40 tie on SNF last year. Historically, the Packers seem to always beat Dallas in the Rodgers/Love eras, and GB is playing better after a poor start. Dallas had an embarrassing home loss to Tampa, and that game is really the main reason why the shocking 10-game winning streak for underdogs in prime time is intact.

It would be fitting for Jerry Jones’ squad to end a streak they helped extend to record length by losing again here as the underdog. I think that’s what will happen too even though I expect a GWD opportunity in this one.

WAS-SF: Maybe we go on a counter run with favorites dominating in prime time starting this weekend. The 49ers won’t go undefeated or anything like that, but I don’t trust a Dan Quinn-coached team to be the one that knocks them off. His defense won’t stop this offense, and Daniels is not playing the best right now. I begrudgingly take the home favorite to cover to end the week.

2026 NFL Stat Oddity: Week 5

NFL Stat Oddity 2026

Week 5 was just one of those NFL weeks where the island games had insane endings to cover up for a pretty bland Sunday afternoon. After consecutive weeks with 12 games with a comeback opportunity, blowouts were up a little on Sunday, though we did still finish with 10 such games in Week 5.

But I think Week 5 brought out the worst this season in coaching decisions, starting with Todd Bowles not kicking that field goal on Thursday night in Dallas. That game shouldn’t have been that close. London shouldn’t have ended the way it did with the Jaguars getting a walk-off field goal after a long kick return.

The Commanders-Giants game ending in a tie was absolute batshit and incompetence from a variety of people. The anticipated Seahawks-49ers game was deceptively high scoring as terrible ball security led to a ton of points from short fields. Then a dropped pass and questionable ruling on the field on the final play ended that one.

To cap it off on Monday night, Joe Brady and Sean McVay showed us why neither should be coaching at the Super Bowl this season. I’ve already led with this one week this season, but I’m really stunned at the lack of growth for this year’s Super Bowl contenders:

  • The Rams still suck miserably on special teams and it’s killing them at 2-3.
  • The Bills are even worse on defense and more reckless on offense under Brady and Jim Leonhard. A lucky 4-1 start.
  • The Seahawks are showing that 4-game run without a giveaway to end 2025 was a fluke outlier.
  • The Broncos still can’t score in the first three quarters.
  • Do you really trust the Jaguars or Vikings to win in January? Too bad you can’t combine Detroit’s offense with Minnesota’s defense.

That’s why I do like the concept of a Chiefs vs. 49ers rematch in February. Kenneth Walker is a new wrinkle. Mike Evans is a new wrinkle. These teams know how to win in the playoffs, and there’s no one in their conference they can’t beat this year. Alas, injuries can undo everything (maybe already did for the Chiefs; we’ll see) and we have a long way to go still.

But Bills-Rams was a grandiose display of just how little we’ve come from last season.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Bills at Rams: Game of the Week

The Rams and Bills started the week with the best odds to win the Super Bowl, and they ended the week in the same position. However, I think Monday night’s 37-34 overtime final was proof that we shouldn’t trust either one of these teams to be there in February as they continue making the same stupid mistakes.

The first half was pure subversion. Josh Allen threw for 60 yards (40 on one short toss to Ty Johnson) and a pick. Puka Nacua looked like he was going to catch 18 balls for 100 yards in a run-and-shoot offense (he finished with 17 catches for 138 yards). The Rams had drives that were long on plays and short on points.

The second half, particularly the fourth quarter when five touchdowns were scored, was the shootout most expected. But at the end of the day, what did we really learn that’s new about these teams?

  • Allen still makes boneheaded decisions as he should have been picked twice in this one, and he was bailed out by multiple penalties on scoring drives.
  • James Cook still fumbles too often and in big spots like he did in overtime here.
  • The Rams still have a terrible kicker (Mevis) and generally terrible special teams, which cost them another game with two missed field goals and a long kickoff return to Buffalo to start the game.
  • Joe Brady’s passing game takes the air out of the ball as Allen somehow had 196 YAC on 210 passing yards and only 12 completions.
  • The Rams were too dumb to put a quarterback spy on him, so he ran for 121 yards, including several scrambles on the same kind of play that kept burning the Rams.
  • Even though D.J. Moore and Josh Palmer were out, the Buffalo tight ends and wide receivers combined for 100 receiving yards, and 57 of those were on one YAC play by Shakir in OT.
  • The Buffalo defense is lousy and worse than it was under Sean McDermott. Stafford threw 55 times and was sacked once while completing 40 passes.
  • The Bills were just fortunate that Sean McVay once again wimped out of a gutsy call to go for 2 and the win after Kyren Williams’ touchdown with 0:05 left.

In some games, you go to overtime at home. But in a game where five straight touchdowns were just scored, you go for 2 and the win. Why not? You’re almost banking on an outcome where you have to defend the Bills in overtime, probably give up another TD since neither of you can get a stop, then have to get your own TD, then probably go for 2 to win then. Why not just wipe out that injury risk on all those snaps and go for the 2 now while you have the terrible Buffalo defense reeling, and Stafford was dealing?

It made no sense in the moment, and I don’t think McVay in Year 10 is ever going to change. This is just who he is. Then in overtime, you get the Cook fumble, you get to the Buffalo 35, then you take the ball out of Stafford’s hands after he played such a clean game? Just nonsense. They ran Kyren on 3rd-and-5 for no gain on the outer edge of field goal range for their overweight kicker (I’m allowed to say it).

Even if the 48-yard field goal wasn’t getting blocked, it looked like he was going to miss it anyway with a bad kick. That’s just who he is.

Then after watching that sequence and the way the Giants-Commanders game ended on Sunday, Joe Brady and the Bills still screwed up their final drive. First, I think they caught a break with the refs letting the clock go down to the 2-minute warning as that quick no-gain run should not have taken 5 seconds when they ran it with 2:45 left. Saved them a delay of game penalty.

But at 2:00 and second down, you run two plays even if they’re knees, and then you kick the field goal in the final 40 seconds so that if it’s missed, you leave the Rams little time to go get the winner. They just kicked it immediately on second down to conclude one of the worst weeks of coaching decisions in the NFL that I can remember.

Fortunately, Tyler Bass was good from 45 yards this time, and in Year 9 in his eighth try, Josh Allen finally wins an overtime game in the NFL. But this type of game does not move the needle positively for me on these teams. If anything, it makes me want to trust them less, because Buffalo isn’t gong to win 37-34 games every week in the playoffs. No one does that.

Then the Rams are 2-3 and in danger of not even making the playoffs if they don’t get Garrett back soon and start playing up to their potential on defense. Even if they do, the special teams can still ruin it any given week as that continues to be a failure for McVay.

It was a spectacle Monday night. But a Super Bowl preview it was not.

49ers at Seahawks: Sunday’s Best

It’s actually comical to see the final score of 32-29 in a game with one touchdown drive longer than 24 yards. These teams were feasting on seven turnovers to set up short fields for scores, including one return touchdown by the 49ers. When George Holani fumbled in the open field just by dropping the ball, I knew I was watching something bizarre and fvcked up.

It wasn’t isolated to one or two players either. It was numerous players on both teams that kept losing control of the ball, which you wouldn’t expect to see on a nice weather day without rain or anything. It’s like these teams were nervous, which would be a weird position since they played in Week 18 for the No. 1 seed last year, two weeks before they met in the playoffs. Those were bigger games than Sunday.

I don’t think either quarterback was very good, though Brock Purdy got it together late and avoided some of the crucial mistakes Darnold had. The go-ahead touchdown drive with Purdy throwing the score to Brandin Cooks was his best drive of the day.

The Seahawks had a chance to tie or take the lead late, but JSN had a horrific drop in the open field after a strong game. Hate to see that in that spot. But on 4th-and-10, Cooper Kupp got 9 yards after diving out of bounds and stretching the ball.

This is another call in Week 5 that technically might be correct in the rulebook, but it just feels spiritually wrong, and it feels like something that has been inconsistently applied. I don’t like the way the end zone gets treated so differently from a first-down market at midfield. This feels like a play where Kupp left his feet while still inbounds and made a diving attempt for the marker and got there. I feel like that should be a first down even if I understand why it wasn’t per rules.

But that doesn’t mean it feels right or is a good judgment call. Hate to see a game end that way. The 49ers improve to 5-0, and the Seahawks look a bit vulnerable at the moment. The defense isn’t quite as impressive as last year, and Darnold is struggling.

But I still look forward to the rematch in Week 12 at the end of November. Just like to see a cleaner game.

Eagles vs. Jaguars: Inconceivable

I slept on this first half of what turned out to be a crazy London game. The shorthanded Eagles were hanging in there, though I think Liam Coen helped that with some of those fourth-down decisions.

I did not like the decision to go for 4th-and-5 at the Philadelphia 5 with 6:35 left and the Jaguars down 14-10. Lawrence threw wildly and turned it over on downs. Some will point to the long snapper issue making a field goal problematic, though I guess the end of the game proved that to be overblown.

But it kind of felt like that would sink the Jaguars no matter what they did as they got a touchdown on 4th-and-5 to Parker Washington on the following drive. And sure enough, the bad snap/hold ruined the XP, so the Jaguars were left vulnerable at 16-14.

The teams exchanged three-and-outs as the clock management wasn’t great on either side, and Jalen Hurts eventually got it back and got it done, setting up a 48-yard field goal with 0:08 left to take a 17-16 lead.

Game over? Not in today’s NFL. You really have to set up the field goal as the final play anymore as we’re seeing 7-8 seconds is enough for a team to win, even if they didn’t have a timeout like Jacksonville. The Eagles screwed up by not kicking deep for a touchback, and the Jaguars returned it 53 yards to set up maybe the deadliest long-range kicker in the NFL in Cam Little, who drilled the game winner from 57 yards out. Trevor Lawrence gets credit for a 4QC for the earlier touchdown but no GWD in this rare situation.

But you have to go for the touchback there and make them try to run some crazy play from the 35. Even a kickoff out of bounds in case you worry you won’t make it to the end zone for a touchback and putting them at the 40 would be better than what happened. I still say the Eagles had a shot to delay the tackle just a hair or two by not bringing the returner down immediately, and the clock would have just expired. Game over.

So many things went wrong in such a quick period of time, and just like that, the Eagles blew an improbable lead for the second week in a row. They went from looking like they’d save their season to possibly putting into motion the end for Sirianni and maybe even Hurts in Philly at this rate.

Ravens at Falcons: Falconing Returns

You know all about Chargering, the Chargers’ art of choking away games. The NFC has its own version in Atlanta called Falconing, and Super Bowl LI is their masterpiece that not even the Chargers can match so far.

Well, Sunday night was some on-brand Falconing after the Falcons blew their shot to win all three of their prime-time games no one but the NFL thought they deserved. Baltimore, even with backup quarterback Snoop Huntley, became the first team since the 2022 Cardinals (vs. Raiders) won a game after trailing by 8 points in the final minute. Same score too as both were down 23-15 before forcing overtime and winning on a touchdown.

Huntley has played well the last two years, and I think you could argue Baltimore makes the playoffs last year if they just started Huntley instead of Cooper Rush when Lamar was injured. But this was impressive on the road given Mark Andrews went all domestic terrorist again with a dropped touchdown, a fumble for a touchdown, and he couldn’t squeeze a 2PC.

Speaking of 2PC, the Ravens finally found a way to go to someone other than Andrews with the game on the line. After the late touchdown, the Ravens put Derrick Henry in the Wildcat and did a direct snap, which he scored on to save the day. Good to see something different here.

Sadly, Michael Penix Jr. did not finish this game with an injury, but since he did play on that last drive in regulation, he technically falls to 0-7 at game-winning drive opportunities with Atlanta.

After the Ravens consumed 7 minutes in overtime, it left the Falcons with little time to go get a touchdown. That’s an interesting part of the strategy to consider for overtime in the regular season when it’s 10:00 instead of 15:00 with a chance for a second OT quarter.

I’m normally pro-kickoff and go on defense, get the ball second so you know exactly what you need with the chance to play four-down football to get it. But I can admit it’s not a one-size-fits-all strategy, and some games I’ll be open to different strategies. This might be one of them as the Falcons looked tired after defending the late touchdown drive in regulation. By taking the ball first in OT, the Ravens could wear them down even more with Henry and company, which they did on their touchdown march.

Also, since you put the Falcons in a bit of a time bind with the long drive, it hurts their best part of the game in running the ball with Bijan Robinson. Granted, he was mostly held in check aside from a 38-yard burst, but the Falcons had to move quickly, and go figure it only took two passes from backup Tua Tagovailoa before we had a game-ending interception. Kyle Hamilton didn’t drop that one.

But that’s a good win to get to 4-1 for the Ravens without Lamar, and just another missed opportunity for Penix and the Falcons.

Colts at Steelers: Offense Returns to Pittsburgh

I felt really confident in the Steelers based on the way they turned the Colts over six times last year, the extra days of rest for old Aaron Rodgers since the Cleveland loss, and the way the Colts can’t rush the passer and gave up the most yards before contact on rushes.

While the game had no turnovers, the Steelers forced the Colts to kick five field goals and they ended their last two drives with fourth-down stops. On offense, the Steelers got two huge plays (80-yard catch, 50-yard run) out of Jaylen Warren for touchdowns, and Rodgers was getting the ball out quickly with few issues. That’s how you get a comfortable 34-22 win.

Rodgers became the oldest quarterback in NFL history to have three straight games with 200+ passing yards and 3+ passing touchdowns. The Steelers have three straight games with 24 points and 350+ yards of offense for the first time since the 2020 COVID season.

Now we’ll see if this offense can travel as the Steelers are going to the Bucs and Saints the next two weeks. They’re 0-2 on the road and 3-0 at home so far.

Broncos at Chargers: Regression Still Not Here for Both

What ever happened to close-game regression for the Chargers and Broncos?

  • Justin Herbert has failed on seven straight GWD attempts going back to Houston last year as the Chargers are the only team that’s 0-5 at 4QC/GWD in 2026.
  • Bo Nix is 11-1 in GWD opportunities since October 2025, including 3-1 this year.

When Tim Tebow shit the bed for three quarters and pulled out his voodoo in the fourth, people thought it was a fad. When John Elway did it for years in Denver, the fans loved it. When Bo Nix does it, I’m not sure what people think it is. I just know they generally don’t like it and don’t trust it.

But Sunday was another one of those games where Denver scored 13 points in the fourth quarter after trailing 17-10. This time, the Chargers kept turning the ball over, setting up Denver on short fields. I’m not convinced Denver going for the field goal on 4th-and-1 at the 1 in a tied game with 5:10 left was the right call, but maybe it doesn’t matter if Justin Herbert is going to throw this on 4th down right to the defense (look at the receivers to the left too):

There’s no injury to a receiver or offensive lineman that can explain that throw. Herbert is broken, he’s dead last in QBR (26.5), and I’m not sure we’ve ever seen anything like this.

The same can be said about Nix, who is now 12-5 (.706) at 4QC and 14-6 (.700) at GWDs. Regression has to hit at some point, doesn’t it?

Bears at Packers: Missing Caleb

Maybe it’s for the best that Mike Ditka’s (RIP) last Bears-Packers game was the playoff one from January as this 31-7 beatdown was not kind to Chicago. Just outclassed from the start on both sides of the ball, Jordan Love and Christian Watson had yet another good game against this defense, and Tyson Bagnet looked like an inexperienced backup quarterback who let the Jets intercept him four times (only one counted though).

Bagent was picked twice here, and Johnson didn’t go with Case Keenum until it was 31-7 in the fourth quarter, and the Bears still ended up turning it over or on downs on their last five drives.

Ben Johnson is just 2-7 against the NFC North, so his rivals aren’t impressed. I’m not ready to panic yet on this team as they clearly need to get Caleb Williams back at quarterback. But I do think there’s a real concern with this offense that having “too many weapons” means the young players (Odunze, Loveland, Burden) are not developing properly because they don’t have defined roles. Who really is the WR1 in this offense? Khalif Raymond has had nice games but he had 3 catches for 6 yards on Sunday.

Figure out the roles better. Meanwhile, I think the Packers have done exactly that with fewer weapons this year when you see Watson with 143 yards, Matthew Golden with 123 yards, and Tucker Kraft had 64 yards. Everyone else had 37 yards combined. Just lean on your best deep threat, your first-round speedster, and your very good tight end. I like that.

The Bears need to sort their offense out better.

Vikings at Saints: Justin Jefferson Deserves Better

The Vikings improved to 5-0 after a ho-hum 23-13 win in New Orleans. The offense was a bit better this week, and Justin Jefferson added a great highlight play with this touchdown in triple coverage that was all him.

Too bad he doesn’t get to play with an elite quarterback. But the Vikings relentlessly blitzed Tyler Shough and it worked again. While he only took one sack, he was 16-of-25 for 96 yards with two picks. Half of the Saints’ points were on a fumble return by the defense.

The Vikings are getting it done defensively under Brian Flores.

Browns at Jets: Blame It on the Rain?

A predictably close game that was lower scoring (17-12) possibly due to the rain. It also doesn’t help when your receiver (Isiah Bond) is catching a 30-yard pass and running out of bounds when he had a chance to go for a touchdown.

Keep in mind that drive would end with Cleveland punting on 4th-and-38 after Predator took a couple of sacks. But Watson also led a go-ahead drive in the fourth quarter that would have been a fourth-straight game-winning drive. Alas, the Browns missed the extra point, Geno Smith lost a fumble, and the Browns went three-and-out in the four-minute offense.

However, the punt ended up being a killer as the wet ball was too much for the punter to handle, and that led to a turnover on downs. The Jets only had to drive 23 yards for the game-winning touchdown, and Geno didn’t even complete a pass on the drive. Watson couldn’t answer on either drive in the final 3:01, and he was strip-sacked on 4th-and-11 to end the game.

Cleveland’s 3-game winning streak ends.

Giants at Commanders: How?

By now, you no doubt saw what happened in overtime after the Commanders blew a 14-point lead to Jameis Winston and the Giants. The Commanders were handed a golden opportunity for a win after the Giants already missed a 46-yard field goal and Cam Skattebo fumbled at the 24 in overtime.

The Commanders just had to spike the ball and kick a field goal in the closing seconds to get a big 30-27 win. But Jayden Daniels took the snap regularly, looked like he would just chuck it out of bounds, but then he took a dive and the clock ran out with the team out of timeouts. There wasn’t enough time for the spike.

Someone should probably get fired over this, and while I don’t think Dan Quinn did a good job on Sunday here, I have to believe this is on Daniels more than anyone. It’s not the first time he got caught trying to do too much at the end of a half or quarter and didn’t get a field goal attempt out of the deal. Whether he simply forgot the timeout situation or pulled a 2008 Donovan McNabb and didn’t know that a game could end in a tie, he fvcked up big time here.

And it’s a shame because he was close to doing the 200 yards passing/100 yards rushing thing in this game as he ran the ball well in his return from elbow injury. But a total brain fart in overtime denied the shot at a big win for Washington.

Maybe it’s fitting that the NFC East doesn’t get a single win in Week 5 despite two teams playing each other. Poverty division.

Raiders at Patriots: Moving in Opposite Directions?

The Raiders have lost two in a row after a 3-0 start while the Patriots have won two in a row after a 1-2 start. Drake Maye had arguably his best performance ever in the NFL in this game with five total touchdowns and 374 passing yards.

Just a dominant win, though I do see the criticism that the Patriots repeatedly got DPI flags on most touchdown drives in the game. But both teams were over 100 yards in penalties and the Patriots still crushed them.

It wouldn’t surprise me one bit if these teams move in opposite directions the rest of the season. Trajectory is back to looking up for Maye, who gets A.J. Brown back soon.

Lions at Cardinals: Detroit Gets First Road Win

The Lions might have the best offense in the NFL this year as long as the key players stay healthy. The defense isn’t good, but at least it got 5 sacks  on Brissett and held the Cardinals to 14 points at home until Trey McBride made an absurd touchdown catch in garbage time.

I’m still not that moved as the Brissett-era Cardinals are the master of losing high-scoring games like this.

Bengals at Dolphins: Burrow in His Element

Ah yes, there’s Joe Burrow in his element. Throwing four touchdowns (but not 200 yards) against a winless Miami team that has yet to hold a single lead this season. However, the Dolphins still found a way to get a push on the 7-point spread despite a terrible start by Malik Willis, which still makes me think the Bengals are fake contenders this year.

That defense hasn’t been championship caliber, and the offense is still a bit one-dimensional.

Texans at Titans: If a Bear Shits in the Woods…

You have to laugh at the Titans starting this game with a field goal before getting outscored 26-0 the rest of the day. No one scored a touchdown until C.J. Stroud ran one in himself in the third quarter. See, literally any quarterback can do it from 2 yards out.

But the Texans were always the better team here, and the result isn’t a surprise. The Titans are really that bad with no direction going forward. That new coaching staff has done zilch but make things even worse and more pointless in Tennessee.

Next Week

I just finished my Week 6 preview, and I can tell you the games aren’t that great this week. Seahawks-Broncos on TNF is actually one of the best games we get. The Jags are taking on Houston in London as a bit of a last-chance effort for Houston.

Ravens-Browns is a 1 PM highlight, I guess. Chargers at Kansas City should have been the premiere game but the Chargers are 0-5. Still, I’d be shocked if they don’t cover the spread (9). Bills-Raiders could be fun if only the Raiders play offense like they did in September. Dallas vs. Green Bay on SNF usually ends poorly for the Cowboys, though I guess a 40-40 tie last year was better than a loss.

Washington-49ers on MNF is the kind of game I could have used last night to get some work done early. But I’ll get everything done, go to bed, and recharge for the rest of the week. Look out on Twitter for my full Joe Burrow video spoofing A Few Good Men. I posted a trailer on Monday.

NFL 2026 Week 5 Predictions: NFC West Takes Center Stage Edition

The NFC West was always the story of this 2026 season with three Super Bowl contenders in one division, and they take center stage in a soft Week 5 schedule that heats up late on Sunday afternoon and the best Monday night game of the year so far.

  • The 49ers are 4-0 and have played the best football of any team.
  • The Seahawks are 3-1 and have been out of the spotlight after Sam Darnold was injured on the opening drive of the season, and they lost to Washington in his return game. But they can get back on top with a win here.
  • The Rams are 2-2 after a much needed comeback against the Eagles, and maybe they can get on a roll by beating Buffalo in a clash of the teams with the best Super Bowl odds (what ever value that holds in October).

Just a huge week for these teams, and they’ll play the Chiefs later this season, and the Rams and Seahawks won’t meet until Christmas. But for an early Game of the Year in the NFL, it’s hard to beat 49ers at Seahawks tomorrow at 4:25. Brock Purdy has a chance to make ground in the MVP argument after his hot start, but he’s going up against an elite pass defense that destroyed his offense in the two meetings late last season.

The 49ers will have George Kittle this time after he was injured in the playoffs, and he looks great so far this year. They also have Mike Evans as a new weapon this year, and Deebo Samuel is back and looks fine. Purdy is playing as well as he ever has, and he did beat the Seahawks in Seattle to start last year as Mike Macdonald actually has a far better road record than at home.

But I think the Seahawks can flex that defense again, and I’m not sure the 49ers can stop JSN. The question is whether Darnold can step up under pressure as he hasn’t done a good job at all so far this year. It should be a good one.

On Monday night, can we just get a good game? They’ve all been blowouts so far. These teams met in 2024 and it was a 44-42 final even though the Bills consistently trailed by multiple scores. The Rams have to play a clean offensive game here as Matthew Stafford’s had too many turnovers already, and he’s getting a Buffalo defense that has already given up 29-31 points in three games. They look worse without Sean McDermott on that side of the ball, and the offense has been making plenty of mistakes the last two games after getting away with some reckless plays in the first two weeks.

Stat Oddity will be delayed until Tuesday as I have some work to do tomorrow night, and I want to make sure I cover MNF in it.

NFL Week 5 Predictions

Welp, Dallas had one of its worst losses on TNF against the winless Bucs, who failed to cover the spread in 13 straight games before that upset. Onto the next.

PHI-JAX: It feels like the sky is falling on the Eagles this week with injuries and Lane Johnson retiring. The Jags are used to this London thing. I’d be surprised if they didn’t win by more than a touchdown here.

CIN-MIA: Joe Burrow in his element, beating up a crap pass defense for a Miami team that’s yet to have a lead at any point this season. The wide receivers sound like they’ll both be active too for Burrow. I don’t expect to see him trailing late in this one.

MIN-NO: Someone has to end this Minnesota undefeated charade. I think the Saints have the right stuff to do it with Shough having that ability to shake off a bad half and get things going late. I think the Saints get a GWD.

LV-NE: Lots of injuries for the New England corners but the Raiders lack receivers. Tough call. I’m going to split the difference and take the Raiders ATS, NE ML as I think Cousins can keep this close with the way the Raiders have been scoring. But NE’s win last week should build confidence for Maye and company.

CLE-NYJ: Definitely feels like a game that will shine in the Witching Hour with a close finish between Watson and Geno. But I’m going to go with the Jets to get an interception in back-to-back weeks after getting that drought out of the way, and they’ll find a way to win this one.

IND-PIT: I like the Steelers at home. 10 days of rest for Rodgers, the Colts rank 32nd in pass pressure rate and 32nd in rush yards before contact per attempt, so I think Rodgers and Jaylen Warren play well. T.J. Watt and the defense show up at home against the offense they turned over 6x last season.

HOU-TEN: You know you’re terrible when you’re a 7-point home dog to an 0-4 team. But the Texans have blown 3 4Q leads, and I think they win big here as they’re just the better team on both sides of the ball.

NYG-WAS: Tough call but I’m going to give Washington a bone at home as Jayden Daniels needs to show he can stay healthy and get a big division win in an NFC East that is wide open.

CHI-GB: I remember picking the Bears to beat Washington right after Dick Butkus died, and I got a similar feeling here with Mike Ditka passing this week. I’m not sure if Ben Johnson has any history with him or if the young players even care, but I think Chicago shows out even with Bagent at QB again, I’m playing Colston Loveland for a TD, and I got the Bears winning this one as the Packers have played terrible football.

DEN-LAC: The Chargers are totally banged up again (OL, WR, Derwin James, etc.). Crazy how this happens so often. Look for Sean Payton to rub it in and run it up as Denver gets an easy win.

SF-SEA: Tough call as I do like the offensive juggernaut in the regular season. But I think the Seahawks find a way and win by 4+.

DET-ARI: Potential shootout but the Lions better win a road game here. Already lost at Buffalo and Carolina.

ATL-BAL: Underdogs have been kicking ass in prime time all season, but so have the Falcons the last two weeks. Conventional wisdom says Ravens fold without Lamar, but I think Tyler Huntley makes it competitive and the Falcons win by 1-3 points at the end.

BUF-LAR: I wouldn’t expect 44-42 but it could be. Rams still aren’t going to have Myles Garrett and Aaron Donald together, but I think Sean McVay can scheme up a bunch of big plays against this Buffalo defense, and look out for D.J. Moore’s injury report as his absence could be a notable loss for the Bills if he can’t go. But I’ll take the Rams at home.

NFL 2026 Week 1 Predictions: Award Winners Edition

The 2026 NFL season got off to an underwhelming start on Wednesday and Thursday, and I’m already sweating my Super Bowl pick of Rams over Bengals. But there is something bittersweet about watching Drake Maye and Matthew Stafford struggle to score points in their openers after they were the MVP race (by default) last year.

Speaking of awards, I’m going to drop my final picks below after the Week 1 picks. I’m usually late like this, but it’s not like I planned on picking anyone from the first two games for any of the awards this year anyway.

The NFL Kickoff Blues (NE vs. SEA, SF vs. LAR Recap)

Either defenses are way ahead of the offenses right now, or this act of not playing anyone in the preseason any snaps might finally be biting teams like the Rams in the ass. Sure, the travel was significant for the Rams and they’ll always talk about that for the Australia game. Stafford having his least effective outing as a Ram and Myles Garrett producing zero pressures while looking winded would certainly qualify for weird outlier unlikely to ever repeat itself.

But there were other questionable coaching things like how they used their new corners in coverage, and Davante Adams got one snap near the end zone after dominating in that area last year. Do the Rams think he’s washed? Very curious moves all around. Aaron Donald also didn’t play, so the supposed “super team” was far from top shape. After losing six games by a combined 21 points last year, the Rams got their asses kicked by 20 points in Week 1.

Meanwhile, hats off to the 49ers. Mike Evans looks ready to perform the deluxe Jauan Jennings route, making key catches on third down and providing a good-sized target in the end zone for Brock Purdy. George Kittle didn’t look too slow after the Achilles. They oddly limited CMC’s touches early, though it helped him break some nice runs in a good second half. Deebo looks good and they clearly understand better how to use him than the Commanders did. I kind of forgot about Deebo going back to be honest. That helps for the Pearsall injury and then their new rookie (Stribling) also got injured. But Fred Warner was awesome at linebacker in his return, and I possibly undersold this veteran team with just 9 wins. But it is a long season, and they have had McVay’s number over the years.

As for the first game, what have I been saying about Drake Maye? Terrible in crunch time, doesn’t handle good defenses well, and I wasn’t sure swapping Stefon Diggs and Kayshon Boutte for A.J. Brown and Romeo Doubs was going to have a huge impact on him because of how well the other two played with him last year.

Sure enough, Brown gets injured and will miss 4-6 weeks. Doubs was horrible with a fourth-quarter drop that I honestly think could be a worse drop for Maye than any drop by a receiver in Tom Brady’s 20-year career with the Patriots. It was that bad and it led to another bad interception, though he saved the worst one for last with the game on the line with a game-tying FG in his back pocket. Just an inexcusable decision and throw.

Meanwhile, Drew Lock led the only fourth-quarter lead change in the last five NFL games after the Seahawks lost Sam Darnold on the opening drive. Damn. At least it doesn’t sound like more than a 1-2 week injury for Darnold.

But the Patriots are at a real risk of starting 1-3 or worse this month, playing several of the teams who beat them last year. I had them penciled in for 10-7 and the No. 7 seed, but you should absolutely be worried about Maye in crunch time as he’s now 1-8 at 4QC. And their insistence on running on early downs is what I believe is their way of protecting him from taking bad sacks or throwing bad picks cause he gets impatient and tries to play hero ball at times.

That’s why I didn’t rank him as a top 10 QB going into the season. I can only go by what we’ve seen, and he’s just not there yet.

But in watching two prime-time bores, does anyone else feel like the best part of the NFL regular season these days is that witching hour around 3:20-4:20 PM ET on Sunday? When you get that block of 8-10 games and there are several one-score games going at once and some dramatic things happen. That anymore is the highlight of the week most of the time if you ask me. These prime-time games almost seem purposely inept offensively for gambling reasons, and that’s soured me out on even trying to build parlays or collect game script data like I should be doing.

We’ll see if the overall trend in Week 1 is poor offense around the NFL, or if it’s just a case of Maye can’t figure out Seattle, the Seahawks lost their QB on drive 1, and the Rams and 49ers were sent to Australia for no good reason.

NFL 2026 Week 1 Picks

Couldn’t get a spread win on either game so far but here’s hoping for some better games this Sunday and Monday night.

NFL 2026 Week 1 Picks

BUF-HOU: Josh Allen is 0-4 as a starter in Houston in his career. It’s still Joe Brady’s offense vs. DeMeco Ryans’ defense, and while a C.J. Stroud disaster-class scares me on the other side of the ball, I think Houston can pull it off here.

CHI-CAR: Which team regresses harder in close games? I still think the Bears are clearly the better team and I trust Caleb more than Bryce Young.

CLE-JAX: I think the Browns have potential to be bottom 3 on both sides of the ball. I see Liam Coen getting his offense going early this season in Year 2, and I like the Jags by 9+ points.

ATL-PIT: The Steelers have to take advantage of a team going into Week 1 with a third-string QB and without its top pass-rushing duo. I think Aaron Rodgers plays well, and Mike McCarthy knows what Cooper Rush can and can’t do. Steelers by a TD or more.

NYJ-TEN: Robert Saleh revenge game. I think he puts the heat on Geno, and Cam Ward has a nice day to get a home win.

NO-DET: Saints could be a surprise team but I still like the Lions at home with that offense putting up enough to win by 7+.

BAL-IND: I see the Colts putting up a fight (Steichen has had success vs. BAL) but the Ravens redeem themselves with Tyler Loop providing a game-winning field goal to win by 3 points.

TB-CIN: Might not be a 50+ point shootout and probably shouldn’t be if the Bengals want to start thinking they’re moving in the right direction defensively. But I think they handle business here and start 1-0.

WAS-PHI: I see Jayden Daniels giving the Eagles a scare but the home team wins by 1-5.

GB-MIN: I like Kyler Murray’s debut game to be spoiled by the Pack with a close win.

MIA-LV: Nothing like matching up the two rookie coaches with the worst WR rooms in the NFL in Week 1. Brock Bowers out too. But I’m going to put some faith in Kirk Cousins over the unpredictability of Malik Willis and that new-look Miami team. Hell, the unpredictability might be a reason to pick Miami but let’s just go with the home team with the OC-turned-HC who won the Super Bowl.

ARI-LAC: I think Mike LaFleur’s Cardinals give the Chargers a scare in their first game without Jesse Minter as DC, but Herbert plays really well and they win by 1-9.

DAL-NYG: One of my key upsets this week, I like John Harbaugh to win his debut with the Giants with the defense leading the way after some dumb Dallas mistakes.

DEN-KC: Could be your classic Kansas City finish where the opponent covers but the Chiefs win by 1-2 points. But it sounds like Josh Simmons won’t play at left tackle, and I said after Super Bowl 59 that I am done picking the Chiefs in games where they face an elite pass rush without a starting LT. I think it’s absolutely malpractice to go into a season opener with an undrafted rookie LT with no real experience at the position to go up against Nik Bonitto in Mahomes’ first game back from a torn ACL. Broncos usually play KC tough anyway under Payton, so I think they can win this one while the Chiefs can do better in the upcoming games on the schedule.

NFL 2026 Season Award Predictions

My final picks for the 2026 NFL awards:

  • MVP: Justin Herbert
  • OPOY: Ja’Marr Chase
  • DPOY: Will Anderson Jr.
  • OROY: Carnell Tate
  • DROY: Rueben Bain Jr.
  • Comeback Player: Patrick Mahomes
  • Protector of the Year: Penei Sewell
  • Coach: Jesse Minter, Ravens

For MVP, I’ll just say Joe Burrow is my most-bet player and I really do believe he can win it. But after the way my final 2026 predictions played out with the Bengals getting a wild card and the Chargers winning the AFC West, and the way I like Ja’Marr Chase for OPOY, I think sanity would win out in that scenario and Herbert would get it when it’s perceived that the defense improving a lot is a reason for the Bengals to return to the playoffs. And the offense takes a step forward while the defense goes back a little for the Chargers.

But I’m sure there will be plenty of arguments for that to come, and hopefully my picks are in the conversation somewhere.

2025 NFL Stat Oddity: Super Bowl LX

Super Bowls are won in the trenches. Defense wins championships. Schedule merchants need not apply.

The New England Patriots almost rode their Most Valuable Schedule to the promised land. But in one of the most emphatic repudiations in NFL playoff history, the Patriots were shellacked 29-13 in Super Bowl LX by the Seattle Seahawks.

It’s almost laughable that the final box score looks as close as it does. The Seahawks barely won the yardage battle (335-331), they only had two more first downs, (20-18), did worse on third downs (4-of-16 vs. 6-of-15) by 15 percentage points, and if you didn’t know any better, you’d think this was a close game until it was blown open by its only three turnovers, all from the Patriots in the final 16 minutes, including a pick-six.

But this really wasn’t close. The Seahawks kept settling for field goals while forcing the Patriots to punt eight times in a row (ignoring the kneeldown for halftime). Then the game’s first turnover happened in the final minute of the third quarter in predictable fashion (a Drake Maye strip-sack), and that led to the only offensive touchdown for the Seahawks from 37 yards out to make it 19-0 with 13:24 left.

It was only in those final 13:24 when Maye passed for 235 yards, reportedly the most in any quarter in Super Bowl history (Doug Williams had 228 in the second quarter of Washington’s 42-10 rout of the 1987 Broncos). But Maye also had 130 of those yards after his pick-six made it 29-7 with 4:27 left. Garbage time intensifies.

That means Maye had 21 net passing yards in the game’s first 46 minutes. He was the one seeing ghosts, and now Sam Darnold is a Super Bowl champion, and we have to deal with the fallout of people thinking the Seahawks are a legendary team after one of the strangest seasons in NFL history.

But I can’t say the ending wasn’t satisfying as it would have been terrible for all discourse if this New England schedule was rewarded with an MVP award for Maye and a Super Bowl ring for that organization. Not this way.

For one last time until September, let’s recap the game with brutal honesty.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Seahawks vs. Patriots: The Young Pup Bowl

Before the game even started, I had some people confused on Twitter when I said this was the lowest-stakes Super Bowl since 2000 Ravens vs. Giants. I may have even been generous there as 2000 was about Baltimore solidifying itself as an all-time great defense, a reputation it’d keep up throughout the rest of Ray Lewis’ career as a franchise led by its defense. Then you can argue 1999 had the same impact on Kurt Warner and the GSOT Rams.

But the point I was making was that Super Bowls are about building legacies. Look at the Super Bowls since and you had Warner and those Rams trying to become a dynasty in 2001, only to give birth to one for the Patriots where every subsequent appearance meant more legacy building for Brady and Belichick. Then you had moments like 2005 when Bill Cowher and Jerome Bettis really needed to finish that road trip with a ring to lock up their Canton busts while Mike Holmgren could have solidified his own if he became the first coach to win a Super Bowl for two different teams.

Year after year, more of the same like when top-tier quarterbacks had to make sure they solidified their legacy with a ring in their first Super Bowl appearance like Peyton Manning (2006), Drew Brees (2009), Aaron Rodgers (2010), and Patrick Mahomes (2019) all did.

Last year, it was all about the three-peat for the Chiefs and how legendary that would make that team while the Eagles were looking for revenge from two years earlier. Big-time stuff.

All that legacy stuff? Practically absent from this matchup with it being Year 1 for these quarterback-coach duos with these teams, and most of their star players are either too young (JSN, Milton Williams, Witherspoon, Byron Murphy, etc.) for legacy talk or it’s veterans like DeMarcus Lawrence, Cooper Kupp (too many injuries), or Stefon Diggs who really have no shot at the HOF either way.

Two quarterbacks still in their twenties who aren’t going to be rushed into the elite class with a win except for the efforts by the New England fanbase and media to do so for Maye. But boy, after the postseason Maye just had? They need to walk that the fvck back some.

So, if you thought this Super Bowl lacked some sizzle coming in, that’s the reason. Just not a lot to be gained from a legacy standpoint. As for what the outcome will do for the future, we can only speculate, and I’ll do that at the end (and more in depth later this week).

The First Half Tells

Again, I did not find this Super Bowl to be difficult to predict or size up this week. I said the quarterbacks were not going to impress (they didn’t), a non-quarterback would win MVP (he did), there’d be a return touchdown (there was), and the defense that caused more damage with splash plays would win the game (they did).

I just didn’t think Seattle would be so dominant in the splash play area, winning turnovers 3-0 and sacks 6-1. If you watched the first few drives, you could see each quarterback playing up to (or down to) expectations too. Darnold had some very risky throws that could have been picks in tight windows. Maye took a couple of early sacks as he tends to do. It was going to be about who manages to avoid the biggest mistakes.

But if you watched those early Darnold throws with the Patriots aggressively jumping routes, you would have been shocked to learn that he ended this game with no picks on 38 attempts. I sensed one coming early. NBC’s Cris Collinsworth did too based on his commentary, and I’m sure millions watching the game did as well. But it never happened.

That really ended up being the key to Seattle winning this Super Bowl. Remember, the Seahawks were minus-4 in turnover differential going into Week 18, and Darnold led all quarterbacks in giveaways. But from Week 18 against the 49ers with the No. 1 seed on the line through the three playoff games, the Seahawks were +8 with 8 takeaways, no giveaways, and that’s how they won every game.

But I think it was a good gameplan early by Mike Macdonald to blitz the corner (Witherspoon) as a new wrinkle (something Witherspoon did twice as much more in 2023-24) to throw off Maye, who looked physically fine (the shoulder) but mentally overwhelmed. I also didn’t think much of Josh McDaniels’ gameplan as he kept up to his reputation with no first-quarter touchdowns in a 10th-straight Super Bowl. But where were the screens, the trick plays, the designed QB runs? Pretty lacking all night to battle what both sides seemed to realize was a blocking mismatch.

When Will Campbell said at the draft that he’d die to protect Drake Maye, I didn’t think he meant he’d take the whole team out in a suicide bombing. But the charting numbers out there are suggesting he allowed 14 pressures himself in the Super Bowl, which sounds astronomically high and hard to believe.

But it was pretty telling early on how little respect both defenses had for the opposing quarterback with the way they were blitzing from all angles and jumping routes. Very aggressive styles that you just wouldn’t see if Patrick Mahomes or (God forbid) Josh Allen were playing in this game. The Patriots running the ball on a 3rd-and-5 early in the second quarter especially felt defeatist. Like they knew their only hope was Darnold to make some Jarrett Stidham-like mistakes and give them a short field.

However, Kenneth Walker’s runs of 30 and 29 yards on the same drive led to the second field goal and a 6-0 lead. The Seahawks running on 3rd-and-12 in the red zone also felt like an admission from Seattle that being conservative as hell was the plan tonight.

Darnold missed a couple of touchdown opportunities to JSN, who was held to 27 yards on 4-of-10 passing and also left the game temporarily for a concussion check. Christian Gonzalez and company did their job on the OPOY, though some Darnold inaccuracies helped the numbers stay down.

Still, Seattle kicked a third field goal and led 9-0 at halftime, just the fifth Super Bowl without a first-half touchdown.

The Third Quarter (Struggle Is Real)

At halftime, the Seahawks were up 183-51 in yards. Maye had just 29 yards on 15 dropbacks, so all that “it’s the weather” bullshit his fans tried selling people on his postseason was in fact bullshit. This looked an awful lot like the impotence he showed in Denver before a speck of snow hit the ground.

Yet, the game still felt close enough and Darnold was shaky enough (late on throws and just 9/22 for 88 yards) to think the Patriots could get back in this game. But I was very surprised at how bad they were in the third quarter. Maye had a 2-for-10 success rate in the quarter. His throws were largely off, and after the Seahawks started the half with another field goal drive to make it 12-0 (arguably Darnold’s best drive all night with two 16-yard passes and an 11-yard scramble), I was shocked at the next sequence from Vrabel and McDaniels.

After getting to the New England 41 after a Henderson run, the Patriots soon faced 3rd-and-1 after he was stuffed for no gain. Do you go sneak? Do you run Stevenson or Henderson again? You do something easy to move the chains, right? Instead, they looked like they wanted to set up a deep shot all along and Maye ended up throwing an incomplete pass to Pop Douglas.

Just to get some spark going for your offense in a 12-0 game, I felt like Vrabel needed to go for this. What happened to the coach who said he’d cut off his dick to win a Super Bowl? Looked like he had his balls snipped instead. The Patriots just punted it back, and they were fortunate that Milton Williams came through with their only sack of the night to instantly derail the drive for another three-and-out.

But then Maye took his fourth sack of the night, then couldn’t convert a 3rd-and-4, leading to another three-and-out. I think these three straight three-and-out drives followed by the game’s first turnover on a strip-sack are really where New England lost this game. They just couldn’t get anything going out of the locker room after a long halftime while Seattle still wasn’t doing anything special offensively, and the nerves should have been less of an issue a half into the game. But they didn’t do anything.

And sure enough, it was a strip-sack that led to Maye’s first turnover of the night, putting the Seahawks 37 yards away from the end zone, the only way they were able to get this offense a touchdown all night. That’s what Seattle has largely been doing since November. That also marks four straight playoff games where Maye took at least 5 sacks, a record.

The Fourth Quarter

Darnold made one of the best plays of the night by converting a 3rd-and-9 to Cooper Kupp, then A.J. Barner was wide open for a 16-yard touchdown. We finally got a touchdown in this game with 13:24 left. At that point, with eight punts and a fumble, you had to question if the Patriots would be the first team in Super Bowl history to get shut out.

But in under a minute, the Patriots got into the end zone with Maye finding Mack Hollins open deep for quick gains of 24 and 35 yards. Where was that all night? Another big mistake by Vrabel going for the extra point. You have to try to make it 19-8, giving yourself a chance at 8+3 instead of keeping it a 12-point game and needing two touchdowns for sure on such a tough night of scoring the ball. Again, he coached very conservatively.

After a quick punt from Seattle, there was still almost 11 minutes left in this game. Crazier things have happened. But this drive is where I felt Maye really blew it. You have time to go on a long touchdown drive, make it 19-14, then all the pressure falls back on Seattle to do something cause even a field goal would keep it a one-possession game at 22-14. But instead of doing so, Maye got into panic mode. He threw a deep ball into triple coverage from his own 17 on first down and that should have been picked but two Seahawks fought for the ball and no one got it.

Then after a 16-yard scramble on a third down, it felt like Maye was getting into a rhythm near midfield. This was far from over. Then two snaps later, he threw a horrific deep ball that was picked off and returned 35 yards to the New England 38 with 8:37 left. Forget about it. The pick was so bad even Collinsworth was left speechless.

The Seahawks played it safe and added a field goal for a 22-7 lead with 5:35 left. Again, it’s not actually over yet. That’s the real kicker too as it’s not like New England needed a superhuman effort from Maye in this game. They just needed him to do some of the things Darnold did like complete some passes in the 8-16 yard range, use your legs that are better than his, and protect the ball. But he didn’t do that.

After converting on 3rd-and-8 to little-used Hunter Henry, pressure got to Maye again and it ended up in a pick-six that was originally ruled a fumble, which would have set a record with his eighth fumble of the postseason. Instead, it goes down as his second pick in the Super Bowl, and he tied the single-season record for the playoffs with 7 fumbles and set the new record with 21 sacks (Joe Burrow had 19 in 2021).

It was 29-7 with 4:27 left, and now you can say it was over. A little touchdown drive in garbage time made it 29-13, then the Seahawks almost answered that too with a 49-yard run by Walker that was called back for holding in a game where officiating wasn’t even a topic for a change. You know it was a beatdown when people aren’t complaining about the zebras in a Super Bowl. Seattle punted and Maye padded some passing yardage to get to 295 to end the game. One of the most misleading boxscores you’ll see.

And like that, it was over. Another Super Bowl in the books where the No. 1 defense dominated an overmatched offensive line. The underdog Patriots sure didn’t play with much fire or passion or living up to the underdog role. There were a few opportunities to make this a game and they missed practically all of them. A pretty forgettable Super Bowl overall.

The truth is this is another season where the Patriots robbed us of a better Super Bowl matchup. Not nearly as bad as not seeing a rematch of Dan Marino’s Dolphins with the 1985 Bears, but I think a healthy Bo Nix and Sean Payton make a game of this in the fourth quarter, to say nothing of the Bills or Jaguars. There wasn’t a single fourth-quarter lead change in the playoff games the Patriots and Seahawks played this year. The other games had 14, a single-season record.

I said 2025 Sam Darnold was like 1991 Mark Rypien on the Redskins, right down to beating up on a schedule merchant in the Super Bowl. Turns out the little time the Seahawks spent trailing this postseason was also on par with that team.

Kenneth Walker ended up winning Super Bowl MVP, the first time a running back wins it since Terrell Davis for the 1997 Broncos. Long time ago. Not exactly a traditional MVP performance since he had 59 of those yards on two plays on one field goal drive, and he didn’t score a touchdown. But I guess it was another one of those games where so many defenders played well that they couldn’t isolate one with stats to give the MVP to, so they just picked an offensive player. Like what happened last year with the Eagles.

But make no mistakes about it. Seattle’s defense led the charge on this win two weeks after the offense picked up the slack against the Rams in the NFC Championship Game, the real Super Bowl this year.

Patriots Learned Some Hard Truths

Okay, it’s time for me to get into smarmy Bill Maher mode and get on the 2025 Patriots for this poor showing to end a weak season.

The Patriots won’t and don’t have to apologize for making the Super Bowl ahead of schedule. But it wouldn’t surprise me one bit if we never see them make it back with Maye and Vrabel. Anyone who thinks otherwise hasn’t studied NFL history as Dan Marino and Don Shula went to the Super Bowl in Year 2 (1984) together and guess what? Neither ever made it back.

Other more recent quarterbacks like Donovan McNabb, Matt Hasselbeck, Colin Kaepernick, Cam Newton, Matt Ryan, and Jared Goff all lost their first Super Bowl and have yet to make it back. Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers won their only Super Bowls in 2009-10 and never got back despite several more great seasons at a level of quarterback play that’s a tier above anything we watched in the 2025 season.

No one knows if they’ll ever be back to the Super Bowl, so you do treat every opportunity as gold.

And I didn’t get a good sense from the Patriots that they took this opportunity seriously enough. More of a “glad to be here” vibe with this team, and maybe that makes sense when you look at the half-assed effort they had on offense in the postseason once they started to play good defenses. Teams like the Jets and Dolphins don’t make the playoffs, you know.

Rarely will you see so many arguments validated by one postseason, but the knock on the 2025 Patriots for being a schedule merchant couldn’t have been more right on. They even kept getting breaks in the playoffs every week with major injuries to their opposing offenses, which is why the defense looked so dominant after rarely displaying such skill in the regular season.

Yes, they tackled well and limited explosive plays, but their schedule was also pure ass. Seattle was finally a healthy offense, and while they didn’t do a ton in this game, they didn’t have to. Sound familiar?

We also can see the weather excuse for New England was bullshit. Unless climate change has produced invisible snow and wind in the state of California, that game was played in near-70-degree weather and clear skies. No issues with a slippery surface or bad turf.

Just bad offense from the Patriots not unlike what we saw all postseason.

As it turns out, who you play is very important in the NFL. Probably the most important thing as matchups dictate outcomes in this league. Yet, I can think of at least 23 MVP voters who seemed to forget that this year when they still let Maye get this close to that award after the season he had against the schedule he faced.

He was 1-2 against winning teams in the regular season, and the Steelers and Bills didn’t necessarily have elite defenses this year either. Once he started playing winning teams backed up by good defenses like the Chargers, Texans, Broncos, and Seahawks in the playoffs, you saw the dramatic drop-off in his stats across the board.

Then one of the common arguments used for his MVP case, used as recently as the other day on TV, was common opponents. I’m supposed to believe that because Stafford had a few more picks on the road against the Falcons and Panthers in high-scoring losses that that makes Maye’s season superior based on a six-game sample.

Okay, you want to see Patriots fans abandon that argument quick? Run the full numbers now that they’ve both played Seattle and Houston too:

  • Matthew Stafford (11 games): 64% completions, 277.7 passing yards per game, 26 TD, 7 INT, 8.15 YPA, 16 sacks, 6 fumbles, 2 lost, 8.03 ANY/A
  • Drake Maye (8 games): 67.5% completions, 258.6 passing yards per game, 18 TD, 6 INT, 8.62 YPA, 27 sacks, 10 fumbles, 5 lost, 7.54 ANY/A

Way more sacks and fumbles for Maye, who drops almost half a full yard in ANY/A from Stafford in these games against the same opponents. Stafford played great in his last two games at Seattle despite the losses being on the defense and special teams. Meanwhile, his third-worst game against Seattle was still better than Maye’s Super Bowl was.

Maye just does not step up against better competition. He’s now 0-5 in the NFL when he throws more than 30 passes against a winning team. He’s 1-8 when he throws more than 35 passes against anyone in the NFL. He has a long way to go to prove he’s an elite quarterback capable of hanging with the best, putting the team on his back, winning shootouts, leading comebacks that aren’t just freebies against Baltimore, and so much more.

Everything was rushed on this kid, and he clearly isn’t at that level yet. Maybe he gets there, and maybe this is as good as it gets in the Maye era. A bad Super Bowl loss. Only time will tell, but I’m not ready to pencil in the Patriots to win the 2026 AFC East.

Another One Bites the Dust

That will wrap up the 2025 NFL season, my 15th season of full-time coverage. Don’t really have more than a pot to piss in for a retirement plan, but maybe this offseason will be beneficial to me in many ways as I hope to get some new databases and metrics created to better help my in-season content.

Also plan to get my health back on an improving track after slacking off these last few months. The end of the season is a stress reliever, and it’s even greater when the Super Bowl ends in a satisfying way as this one did.

I’ll be writing Monday night (for Tuesday) about lessons learned from the 2025 NFL season, but if you want a quick teaser on that, I’m asking the question straight up: How many of these “new contenders” in 2025 will have already peaked this season?

  • Seahawks (good chance this is the peak of the mountain)
  • Patriots
  • Bears
  • Jaguars
  • Broncos
  • Texans
  • Panthers (technically won the division)

I think it’s possible a lot of them never match or improve on their success this year, but we’ll just have to wait and see. It’s going to be an interesting offseason to ask a lot of questions about the 10 new head coaches, and if the number I read is correct, 21 new offensive coordinators around the NFL. Lots of chances for quick turnarounds in 2026 and questioning if the teams who dominated turnovers (Bears) or close games (Bears again, Broncos), or if the schedule merchants (Patriots, Broncos again) can get it done again.

I plan on watching more movies and TV shows, maybe subscribing to the Criterion Channel to tackle the top 5,000 films list on TSPDT better, and working on more NFL stats and hopefully reading less Twitter. But we’ll see as I may want to dabble in video content if it proves to be rewarding/worth the time.

But I need to tackle my offseason approach differently this year as I just can’t keep wasting time arguing on Twitter with bots/scumbags/dumb people. Time is too precious, and we’re running out of it daily.

So, I want a different kind of offseason because I can’t just stomach daily doses of hearing how some overrated schedule merchant lucked his way to a Super Bowl he shit the bed in, and how Mahomes is “washed” and “never going to be good again”. Screw those people. I put in the work and am confident in my predictions. You can’t change their minds.

I just have to keep putting out good content, backed by facts, and let that speak for itself. And Seattle fans, you’re welcome for that reverse jinx. Still feel like you might owe me for Super Bowls 47-48, but given what happened in XL, I guess we can call it even enough.

Until our rooting interests converge again…

NFL 2025 Super Bowl 60 Predictions

I’ve already spent too much time writing and thinking about Super Bowl 60 to try to hype it up much more here. So, this is going to be brief, but I’m just thinking at 4 AM, about 38 hours from kickoff, at how huge of a difference in legacy talk there is for this game compared to Super Bowl 49 between these teams 11 years ago.

That one had so much attached to it.

  • Russell Wilson could be one ring away from Brady (3 vs. 2) in just three seasons in the league and no Tuck Rule in his history.
  • Pete Carroll could repeat and arguably take over the mantle as best football coach in the 21st century with his success at USC and now a repeat.
  • The Legion of Boom would solidify itself as an all-time great defense that repeated.
  • The Patriots were trying to end their decade-long title drought after so many crushing playoff defeats.
  • Brady was still trying to tie Joe Montana and Terry Bradshaw with a 4th SB win and was in danger of falling to 3-3 in the Super Bowl with three straight losses.
  • It was the “we’re onto Cincinnati” year for Belichick, it was right after Deflategate started.

That game had a lot riding on it, there was no spread (pick ’em), and it ended up being a classic with an inexcusable late-game strategy by the Seahawks that led to the costliest interception in NFL history.

Then you jump forward 11 years and practically everyone involved in these teams is different except for the New England offensive coordinator, who was not the guy to try to call a pass in a tight space to Ricardo Lockette from the 1-yard line when Marshawn Lynch was ready to run through a motherfucker’s face over and over.

But really, what are the stakes here? Mike Vrabel’s penis? Or did he already get it chopped off to help win this ring? It’s just Year 1 for Vrabel-Maye and it’s also Year 1 for Macdonald-Darnold. One year and they’re in the Super Bowl. How’s that feel, Buffalo and Baltimore fans? Eight years and not one of these for those teams.

Instead, we get to see if The Schedule can get it don against Sam Darnold, the No. 1 reason people will still pick the Patriots because they’re afraid of him imploding on the biggest stage. I’m one of those people. But very cool story if he actually kicks their ass and wins this game.

But enough talking. I already gave my final score the other day, so here’s the links with a 7,300-word preview of the game, as well as my supporting stories and betting picks that can help you pass some time before Sunday’s kickoff. We made it.

FINAL: Patriots 23, Seahawks 20

2025 NFL Stat Oddity: Conference Championship

Championship Sunday came and went with two close games, not a single fourth-quarter point scored, and that just might be the only formula for how you get a Super Bowl between Sam Darnold and a young Drake Maye doing his best Trent Dilfer impersonation.

I told you this was not my AFC, and one terribly quarterbacked game that was sunk to even lower depths by a huge snowstorm gave way to one of the best quarterbacked championship games you’ll ever see in the NFC. What happened to the AFC having the best quarterbacks?

But my prediction of a 3-point New England win (Broncos covered) and a 27-24 win for the Seahawks were pretty spot on as the favorites advance to Super Bowl 60 where the Seahawks might be a 4.5-point favorite.

It’s not like last year’s story with the three-peat vs. Philly’s revenge. But maybe it will provide a better game, though I’m not sure how the Patriots will actually respond to a good team that isn’t terribly injured. But we have two weeks to talk about that.  

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Patriots at Broncos: Proof That “Take the Points” Is Sometimes the Right Move

I certainly don’t envy the task Sean Payton had on Sunday.

Trying to beat the NFL franchise with the most devil luck on a day where you didn’t have Bo Nix, you had to start a quarterback who hadn’t thrown a meaningful pass in two years (or ever, in some context), you didn’t have your best back (J.K. Dobbins), and you lost Pat Bryant early on top of Troy Franklin being out at wide receiver. Only your #2 and #3 wideouts in receiving yards this season.

I don’t envy him at all, but I think for the first time ever, I’m going to say a Sean Payton defense was 100% let down by a Sean Payton offense in a playoff loss. In a very winnable game against the Patriots, Payton made some tactical errors that he’ll have to stew over all offseason and maybe longer as this 2025 season may have been the best shot he had at a Super Bowl the rest of his career.

You could tell early on this wasn’t going to be a Josh Allen vs. Patrick Mahomes type of AFC Championship Game. Not with Jarrett Stidham and Drake “The Schedule” Maye.  Both coaches came out running the ball, waiting for the quarterback to make a throw on third down that was nearly a turnover for both.

After Stidham badly missed a screen pass on his second drive, you thought the worst was yet to come. But then he surprised everyone with a perfect deep ball, a 52-yard gain to Marvin Mims, who beat Christian Gonzalez in coverage. Two plays later, it was a touchdown pass to Courtland Sutton, and suddenly Denver was up 7-0.

But it never got better from there. With the Patriots struggling to get any offense going, the Broncos faced a 4th-and-1 at the New England 14 early in the second quarter after a Stidham scramble. I get the argument for being aggressive and going for it, but as I said in the moment, I supported the field goal there.

I think Payton lost the game here.

First, you have to understand this is a game where points will be at a premium with your backup and all the other injuries on offense. The Patriots are playing a lot of sound defense and there was clear pass pressure on Stidham, who didn’t do the best job of handling it with his inexperience. He could stand to learn to throw the ball away better.

Second, if you’re going for it and you’re not going ballsy to throw to the end zone for a touchdown, then you gotta go quarterback sneak (Payton had Russell Wilson dominating these after he was horrible at them in Seattle) to be safe and get it. At best, you’re probably getting a yard or two, so it’s still going to be a first down at the 13 or 12. Can you really say for sure you’re getting a touchdown there? You might be kicking a field goal four snaps later anyway, so that’s another reason I don’t like going for it at the 14.

Third, if the CBS broadcast team knew in the pregame that snow was very possible in this game and the conditions would get worse, then Payton and the Broncos had to know that too. That’s just another reason to take the 3 points now, go up 10-0, and put pressure on a quarterback in his first road playoff start who has been playing like shit.

But the Broncos went for it, Stidham tried to throw a long-developing pass play to the back, and he was nearly picked off. Turnover on downs. That was the turning point, and even though the Patriots punted on the ensuing drive, the Broncos never got the ball past the New England 28 the rest of the game.

New England’s offense was still unable to get going. Maye’s success rate was 1-for-9 to start this game, and not even a 3rd-and-13 conversion to Mack Hollins could get a scoring drive going. They needed a takeaway, which Stidham provided in the worst way on the ensuring drive. Instead of throwing the ball away or taking the sack since it was third down, he tried to get rid of the ball and was charged with a fumble after some ref discussion. He’s lucky they blew the whistle and it wasn’t a fumble-six.

I’m not sure it was a true backwards pass either, but since what Stidham did on the play was so bad and stupid, he deserved to get hit with a turnover. The Patriots got to start with the ball 12 yards away from the end zone, and two plays later, my prediction of a Maye rushing touchdown came true to get the Patriots on the board.

It’s those two killer plays that ruined the game for Denver. The 4th down decision and the fumble. Both teams missed a long field goal to end the first half, but the weather was about to get much worse in the second half.

New England could have started the second half with a three-and-out, but Rhamondre Stevenson was able to catch them off guard with a 3-yard run on 3rd-and-3. That led to a marathon drive where Maye had a key 28-yard scramble on 3rd-and-9 that’s probably the main reason his QBR for this game ended up being a 62.6.

The 9:31 drive ended in a field goal, but that’s a 10-7 lead and it was the last score of the day. It was around this time when the snow started coming down, and that made it very hard on both teams to get any offense going. The Patriots got their long drive in just in time before the snow.

However, no one knew that’d be the last scoring drive in the game, and it almost wasn’t a scoring drive at all. The Patriots used the Tush Push on 4th-and-1 at the Denver 8, and despite beefing up with two defenders in the backfield, they really didn’t get any push on Maye. He’s fortunate that spotting the ball is an unscientific joke in the NFL, because this probably should have been a turnover on downs.

After their field goal drive, the Patriots tried to use the better field direction (snow not in their face) for a 31-yard gain on a flea-flicker pass, but even with the better field, they still missed a 46-yard field goal badly. The Patriots had just two completions that gained more than 9 yards in the game.

In the fourth quarter, Denver had the better field direction for offense. But the offensive line was not able to control the ground game, so it was on Stidham to try to beat this defense in the snow. He just couldn’t do it on this day.

The final turning point was a bad New England punt that put the Broncos at the New England 33 with 6:55 left. What offense in a 3-point deficit wouldn’t kill to start that close? But the weather was a factor again, and the Broncos did not capitalize with great calls. Harvey lost 3 yards on a first-down run, then he didn’t get anything on a catch, then Stidham scrambled for 8 yards to set up 4th-and-5.

Not to trigger Atlanta fans over Super Bowl 51, but this drive’s failure reminded me a little of how the Falcons had a 1st-and-10 at the New England 22 after the great Julio Jones catch. Literally take three knees and make a field goal and you probably win that game. Instead, they lost yards and had to punt in a 28-20 game before the Patriots tied.

At least the Broncos didn’t punt here, but only gaining 5 yards on 3 plays in that golden opportunity for field position was a huge, missed opportunity. I also question if they should have just gone for it here as getting a touchdown was probably their best shot of winning the game. You don’t really care if you get stopped since you don’t expect the Patriots to get any offense going in the wind.

I guess they had to give the field goal a try, but Wil Lutz was blocked from 45 yards out with 4:42 left. Given the magnitude of the game and the moment, I think I could make the argument that’s in the top 5 for the biggest failed field goal in NFL history.

The first one is obviously Scott Norwood’s 47-yard miss for Buffalo with Super Bowl 25 on the line against the Giants. The only do-or-die field goal miss in Super Bowl history. But we also know the only other short do-or-die field goal miss in a championship game was Billy Cundiff (Ravens) from 32 yards out in the 2011 AFC Championship Game at New England.

Then I might rank Gary Anderson’s first miss of the 1998 season at No. 3 as it cost his Vikings a 10-point lead late in the NFC Championship Game that should have been enough to beat Atlanta. We were robbed of an all-time great Super Bowl between the Vikings and Broncos because of that one.

For fourth place, you can take your pick of failures in the divisional round:

  • 2000 Titans vs. Ravens: Al Del Greco’s 37-yard FG is blocked and returned for a touchdown in a 10-10 tie with just over 12:00 left (Ravens won 24-10 after getting a pick-six too).
  • 2005 Colts vs. Steelers: “He missed it” as Mike Vanderjagt shanked a 46-yard field goal to deny an all-time great game of overtime.
  • 1995 Chiefs vs. Colts: Lin Elliott missed a 42-yard field goal to force overtime as the No. 1 seed Chiefs fell. He missed from 39 yards in the same quarter.
  • 2006 Chargers vs. Patriots: Nate Kaeding missed a 54-yard field goal that would have forced overtime back when overtime was true sudden death.

At worst you have to put this one in the top 10 since it was a championship game.

The Broncos got the ball back with 3:05 left and 68 yards away from the end zone. But much like in Stidham’s only other game-winning drive attempt in the NFL (2022 overtime vs. 49ers), he threw an interception rather quickly. Just a poor read/throw, and Gonzalez has his playoff highlight now.

The Patriots just needed one first down to ice it, and Maye put that away with his legs on a broken play. He ended up rushing for 65 yards while only netting 65 passing yards on 26 pass plays. He joins Blake Bortles (vs. 2017 Bills) as the only quarterbacks to throw for fewer than 100 yards (min. 20 attempts) and win a playoff game without scoring 14 points.

There are many “records” of futility associated with the Patriots’ Super Bowl run here, and I have two weeks to get into them all, so it’s not like I have to do it right now. But I think scoring the fewest points (54) by any conference champion since the 1979 Rams (49) is a good place to start.

Becoming the third team in NFL history (regular season or postseason) to win three straight games in a single season after allowing at least 5 sacks in each game is another crazy one. Only the 1986 Patriots and 2004 Bears did that, and they weren’t doing it in playoff games. Maye’s 15 sacks are already the second most in a single postseason (Joe Burrow took 19 in four games in 2021).

The Dilfer/2001 Brady comparisons are spot on for Maye. I’d say he has to play better against Seattle to win one more time, but are we sure about that right now? This team is on such a lucky run that they don’t even have to play a single top 10 offense in yards or points per drive despite playing four playoff games.

The Patriots have allowed 19 net points in three playoff games, and they get Darnold next. Defenses that go on runs like this in the playoffs usually do quite well in the Super Bowl, but I’m not sure there’s anything sustainable you can take away from this New England run.

Rams at Seahawks: The Ring That Got Away

If special teams didn’t exist, the 2025 Rams could have been a special team.

In the end, I was right that the Rams were not a good pick to win the Super Bowl this year despite spending several weeks as the odds-on favorite. But their blown leads, including that 16-point lead in Seattle in Week 16, showed a team that lacked attention to detail and closing games out in a championship fashion.

In some ways, Sunday night was their worst performance of the season. It’s the only game this year where the Rams didn’t find a way to get at least a fourth-quarter tie and they trailed by 11 multiple times.

Their pass defense was shredded by Sam Darnold (346/3/0) and JSN (10/153/1). Then there were the third-down woes I kept warning about, and didn’t expect the Seattle offense to go 7/12. But the Rams were just 1/8 on third down, and that was enough stops to keep them behind the eight ball all night in a 31-27 loss.

But the real turning point ended up being arguably the biggest weakness this team had all year: Special teams.

  • They gave up two blocked field goals in the fourth quarter against the Eagles to blow that game they led by 19 points and should have won.
  • They missed a go-ahead extra point in the San Francisco loss.
  • They gave up a punt return touchdown in Week 16 in Seattle to get that comeback going for the No. 1 seed, and they missed a go-ahead field goal in that game too.

The Rams fired their ST coordinator during the season but to no avail. It cost them again on Sunday. Xavier Smith muffed a punt in the second quarter but got it back. In the third quarter, with the Rams trailing 17-13 and about to get the ball back, he made one of the worst plays ever, falling down while the punt was coming and losing that one for the game’s only turnover.

Just a horrible play that the Seahawks immediately used to score a 17-yard touchdown and go up 11 points, making the Rams chase the rest of the night.

That’s not to say the Rams had a perfect game otherwise, but that was definitely the turning point. There was another before the second quarter ended when the Rams got the ball back with a 13-10 lead and 1:33 with two timeouts. A good drive there and you’re going into halftime up 16-10 or 20-10. Instead, the Rams had a quick three-and-out with two incompletions, and the Seahawks got the ball back with 54 seconds left. They were able to drive 74 yards for a touchdown in 30 seconds. Rams trailed 17-13 at halftime. Inexcusable.

Otherwise, there weren’t that many mistakes from the Rams on the road. After the botched punt return and 24-13 deficit, Stafford did a great job with some quick strikes to get a touchdown on the board and make it a game again. But I thought McVay nearly gave it away with a bad run call on a 2nd-and-15, then it looked like the Rams had to punt until a stupid taunting penalty on Riq Woolen wiped out a 4th-and-12 situation.

Keep in mind that’s after Woolen dropped a pick. Then he immediately gave up a 34-yard touchdown to Puka Nacua, so that was an unbelievable 3-moment sequence of shame for Woolen, and it made the game 31-27 with just over 17 minutes left.

But like the first game, there were no more points added. I do see the criticism and application of why McVay wouldn’t go for two there to try to make it 31-28. That way, if you’re down late in a 3-point game, you can settle for the game-tying field goal. But down 31-27, they ended up turning it over on downs on a spot you’d rather be kicking a field goal. So, that did kind of come back to haunt them. If they didn’t get the 2PC, then it’d still be 31-26 and the situation would be the same, needing a touchdown. So, I do think McVay goofed there a bit.

After the Rams finally got a stop thanks to a big sack, Stafford had his shot at what needed to be a third-straight game-winning drive on the road this postseason. He had a pretty great game, but the Rams turning in a marathon drive where they had to overcome a 4th-and-1 with a Stafford scramble after a terrible Colby Parkinson drop ended up really hurting the Rams in the end.

Their drive consumed almost half the quarter and ended in no points. On 4th-and-4 from the Seattle 6, Stafford tried forcing a pass to a backup tight end and it just wasn’t there. According to McVay and Stafford, the Seahawks were fortunate to “blow” a coverage and double team running back Kyren Williams, who apparently was supposed to be the target for a go-ahead touchdown. He was doubled, so Stafford had to panic and go elsewhere for a big incompletion with 4:54 left.

Could they have kicked the field goal there and made it a 1-point game? Yeah, I think there’s an argument there. But when you’re in a 31-27 game and the quarterbacks were playing at a high level with both over 340 yards, 3 touchdowns, and no picks, I think you have to put the ball in the hands of your MVP in that spot and trust your best unit. It just didn’t work out.

Then the Seahawks did a really great job in the four-minute offense, an area of the game where I always criticize McVay for his shortcomings. The Seahawks stayed smart and aggressive, mixing in several second-down pass attempts. They ended up getting four first downs to help run out all but 25 seconds of the clock and the Rams’ three timeouts.

The “controversial” play was a 3rd-and-7 to Cooper Kupp, who also scored a touchdown against his former team. He was ruled to get just enough for the 7-yard gain with 3:11 left, or the Seahawks would have had an interesting decision. First, I think it was a catch and down by contact all the way. But are we sure Kupp got to the 35 and the first down? Should McVay have challenged that one to burn a timeout instead of just using a timeout? I think there’ s an argument to challenge the spot here.

Alas, it ended up counting as a first down, then JSN had a big 14-yard catch for another first down, then a defensive holding penalty really put the Rams in a bind. By the time Stafford got the ball back, only 25 seconds remained and he had to go 93 yards. He got 44 to Puka, but he was unable to get out of bounds (close) on the last catch to at least set up a Hail Mary finish from the Seattle 49.

The Seahawks hung on, and Stafford becomes the first quarterback ever to throw for 350 yards, 3 touchdowns, and no turnovers in a playoff loss. It’s hard to play better than he did in the two games at Seattle, the No. 1 scoring defense, and he still took the loss in both games.

That tells me maybe he will win that MVP, because it’d be yet another year where the MVP didn’t win the Super Bowl. Only Patrick Mahomes (2022 Chiefs) has done that in the 21st century as teams built this way to win with the passing game are a dying breed, and it’s just hard to pull that off in the playoffs when you need competent plays from your special teams and defense.

The Rams didn’t get enough of those this year, and that’s why they were on the road here, and that likely made a difference as I can’t see Darnold playing this comfortably on the road even if the SoFi crowd is a little soft. They weren’t soft enough for him not to throw four picks in the first meeting, but that’s an afterthought now.

Darnold is in the Super Bowl, he’s the favorite, he’s got a good defense that has shown some major cracks against the Rams, but it’s just one game against the Patriots to win it all now.

What do you think is going to happen in two weeks? It feels inevitable, doesn’t it? The ghosts of failures past coming home to roost. Cinderella turning into a pumpkin at midnight. Mike Macdonald losing another defensive gem after losing a 17-10 game at home in the 2023 AFC Championship Game with Baltimore against the Chiefs.

Can he overcome his quarterback’s nerves? Can someone hire Klint Kubiak to be their head coach after this showing? Guess we’ll find out all of these things in the next two weeks. I’d say I can’t wait, but I got a Tubi watchlist and ~10 inches of snow that’s going to take a week or longer to melt that also have my attention.

The Mark Rypien vs. Trent Dilfer Super Bowl can wait a little.

Next week: Certainly not watching the Pro Bowl. I’ll have Super Bowl-related articles for the next two weeks, including a topic I had in mind since September that relates Sam Darnold, MetLife Stadium, and the Patriots together in a satirical but still factual way.