The 2026 NFL regular season will be halfway over after Monday night when Week 9 concludes, and the trade deadline is the next day. Some contenders should be buying and some scrubs should be selling as the AFC playoff picture is almost a foregone conclusion already (barring absurd circumstances).
Then again, things can get absurd in the NFL in a hurry. We just watched an undrafted rookie start at quarterback for Baltimore (Joe Fagnano) just days after Lamar Jackson was supposed to be back. Whoops. Now the Ravens (4-5) have suddenly lost three straight games by 20+ points for the first time in team history.
Onto next year it looks as the Bills, Patriots, Steelers, Bengals, Broncos, Chiefs, and Jaguars have pretty good footing in the AFC playoff chase. I guess Cleveland (5-3) is still in the mix too.
As for the NFC, the Vikings are 6-1 but will start Carson Wentz at quarterback on Monday night. Maybe not a bad thing given the way Kyler Murray has played. The 49ers are also 6-1 but have been outscored by 20 points since Mike Evans was lost. The Seahawks and Rams were both preseason favorites but are just 4-4 at the moment.
If there’s a team that’s thriving right now that has a potential for greatness on both sides of the ball, it has to be the Chicago Bears (6-2). We know about Ben Johnson’s offense, and his defense gets takeaways and added Jeffery Simmons, who might just give the team Aaron Donald-level impact for the team that lost to the Rams (without Donald) in the NFC playoffs last year. Just keep an eye on how they fare in those tough division games where everyone knows Johnson’s offense well from setting it yearly in the NFC North, a division that is stacked again.
I think the NFC East and NFC South (regrettably) get one playoff team each. Neither should win that home playoff game. That leaves five spots for seven teams in the West and North, and that’s discounting the chance of some goofy Minshew Magic for Arizona (3-5). But two of those teams are going to come up short. Could that be Minnesota after the 6-0 start built on a blitz-happy defense and weak offense? Could that be the “super team” Rams succumbing to injuries and falling way short of expectations? They would probably be my picks, though Seattle still has to play the Rams twice in the last three weeks, which could decide something.
A team like Green Bay still has 6 games against the likes of NE/MIN/DET/CHI/BUF/LAR so they are by no means a lock either for the playoffs. FWIW, FanDuel has the Packers at -116 odds to make the playoffs, Rams at +100, Vikings are -320, and Seahawks are -122.
But would it really shock you if the Vikings went from 6-0 to 6-4 after they play the Bills, 49ers, and Packers next? I just don’t trust them, though I don’t really trust anybody this season.
Some Super Bowl matchups I think would be cool:
Steelers vs. Bears: Aaron Rodgers’ final game against the team he “owns” and the Bears are good TV these days.
Rams vs. Bengals: The Super Bowl 56 rematch I predicted before this season started.
49ers vs. Chiefs: Round III if they can get some healthy WRs who play well for them.
Bills vs. Vikings/Lions: The ultimate “someone has to finally get a ring” Super Bowl this year.
Broncos vs. Giants: The most “Eat Arby’s” Super Bowl you can get this year. Bo Nix vs. Nine. But if you saw Giants-Broncos in 2025, you know there’s potential for craziness there.
But I’m not ready to rule anything out at this point.
NFL Week 9 Predictions
I have been on an absolute tear since Week 7: 23-5-1 ATS and 23-6 SU. Jags was a no-brainer on TNF against the Ravens without a QB. But you know what this probably means? The regression is about to hit hard, so I wanted to almost second guess myself on several of these picks because I don’t trust myself to have a third-straight stellar week. But let’s see what happens.
CIN-ATL: I said before the season even started that Joe Burrow would likely win multiple games this season after trailing in the final 8:00 on dumb luck/regression alone. He finally got one last week against a shit Tennessee team, and don’t be surprised if he enjoys some “Falconing” in Spain to get a second in a row. The Falcons should play better this week out of the monsoon, but I’ll be damned if that 16-0 loss last week didn’t ruin any optimism over them after beating the 49ers.
DEN-CAR: The Panthers would be the kind of team who could start that close-game regression for the Broncos that hasn’t hit yet (like not at all either). But the Panthers haven’t been getting it done like that so far in 2026 either. I think Denver finds a way again to win this one.
DAL-IND: Great spot for the Cowboys to win after blowing the last game to Arizona and with the Colts looking to trade more pieces. Dallas thrives in the lowest of pressure spots like this.
CLE-NO: I don’t trust the Saints at all this year, but I trust Shedeur Sanders even less.
NYJ-KC: Well, after all my factual Andy Reid criticisms of the last few weeks, he should look like a genius with Aaron Glenn on the other side. But I can’t possibly pick the Chiefs to win by double digits at this point even with Garrett Wilson likely out (is he getting traded to KC afterwards?). They make too many mistakes and Geno could pick them apart if he shows up with his A game. I also don’ t think they’ll push for a QB sneak after the fervor over that in a game like this, but I am definitely playing a Mahomes TD score (+390 odds) this week.
DET-MIA: Dolphins are home and have been playing better, but isn’t that just AFC East familiarity with Jets and Pats? This line feels easy to me. Lions by a TD or greater.
NYG-PHI: Oh brother, Nine vs. Joe Milton. The splash zone is about the 12th row for a ball to land in your nachos. But I think the Eagles are wore out and the Giants seize the opportunity. Two of my 5 spread losses the last two weeks were the Eagles. I can’t pick them again.
LAR-WAS: One of those games where I feel like Rams should win easy, but reverse psychology thinks Washington should win, but I should do the opposite of my belief, so that takes me back to the Rams. But since I am probably going to get a bunch wrong this week, let’s just go with the Commanders to cover anyway.
HOU-LAC: My upset of the week, I’m going with the Chargers to finally get a win and possibly transfer the most disappointing team label over to the Texans. I don’t have any good reasons for it other than Stroud screws up repeatedly and Herbert takes advantage of short fields.
SF-LV: No Mike Evans or Deebo again? The Raiders score quite a bit without WRs. I think they play this one tough and could even steal it. But I’ll go with the Raiders to cover and 49ers win.
NE-GB: Packers have been playing well. I think Love outplays Maye and they win this one in NE.
ARI-SEA: Lucky Drew Lock gets yet another game against that Arizona defense. I think Gardner Minshew will find starting much tougher than life off the bench against Dallas. Blowout possible but beware of divisional rematches with a backup QB. Or two in this case.
TB-CHI: Can we get some forward passes from Baker? 7 completions in 8 quarters is nuts. I think the Bears take advantage of that lack of passing chemistry with the Bucs, and they come out looking strong here. Possibly the new SB favorite in the NFC if the 49ers were to fall to the Raiders earlier in the day.
BUF-MIN: Good offense vs. defense matchup again like last week on MNF, and we saw offense (Bears) win that one. While I think Wentz probably gives MIN a better chance to win this game than 2026 Kyler Murray, I think he’ll still make costly mistakes in the end that allow Buffalo to escape with the win. But it should be fun to see how Flores approaches the Buffalo offense here. Maybe give the other NFL teams some ideas for the rest of the season.
It’s Week 8 in the NFL and there are some really good games this week, especially with key division races in the AFC North, NFC North, and AFC West. There’s also a Bills vs. Ravens game that could be good with the return of Lamar Jackson.
But what is the NFL leaving in prime time on Sunday night? An NFC East shit-fest between the Eagles (2-5) and Commanders (1-4-1). We already had to watch the Eagles lose 38-21 on Monday night against Dallas, and now they’re a 5.5-point underdog to a 1-win Washington team that hasn’t been fun to watch since they lost the 2024 NFC Championship Game in Philadelphia.
All these great games and it just so happens that they can’t flex any of them in.
Oh, we can’t do Steelers-Browns in prime time again or do Vikings-Lions (SNF in Week 15) even though the Eagles and Cowboys get both of their games in a national window (they meet again on Thanksgiving).
We can’t flex Chiefs-Broncos in a battle for first place because God forbid the Chiefs are on SNF two weeks in a row even though we’ve recently watched the Falcons and Cowboys in three straight prime-time games.
We can’t do Bills-Ravens because the Ravens play on Thursday night (more valid at least).
Instead, let’s get the battle to stay out of last place in the first or second-worst division in the NFL this year. I hope the day comes where this NFC East bias bullshit comes to an end and the NFL starts giving us games people actually want to watch in prime time instead of relying on market size. The ratings don’t back it up that more people want to watch the Eagles and Commanders.
Does Jerry Jones have to meet his maker before we can just collectively move on from these teams in prime time so often? Whatever it takes, I’m ready for a change in how the NFL treats that division on the schedule.
NFL Week 8 Predictions
Spiritually, I should have nailed the correct score on Thursday night as I had the Packers beating Carolina 27-20. It ended 27-19 because a team that is now 2/11 on 2PC under Dave Canales thought it was being smart with this newfangled strategy of going for 2 early that I don’t think is a real difference maker, especially when you have put on tape that you suck far more than league average at these types of plays with your short QB.
TEN-CIN: The Bengals can get to 5-2 and still objectively won’t have an impressive win in 2026. But after what they did in Miami, I don’t trust them not to let the Titans cover in the backdoor.
BAL-BUF: The Ravens narrowly lost their last two games at Buffalo in the 2024 AFC-DIV and Week 1 last year. It wouldn’t shock me if they found a way to lose this game by 1-3 points too. But I think the vibes are bad coming out of Baltimore after a 35-13 drubbing last week, Lamar might be rusty and not able to run 100%, and the Bills are rested off a bye week.
ARI-DAL: Would be a classic Dallas letdown spot. They’ve lost some games they were heavily favored to the Cards in recent years, including 2025. But I think they’ll win this week.
CLE-PIT: I think Aaron Rodgers is playing better than he was in the first meeting, and the offense showed it could sustain drives in Cleveland. Just have to avoid the sacks and picks, which I think he will at home. And I think with every win being a GWD for Cleveland, it’s about time for some regression for Deshaun Watson as they get to Predator in the 4Q of this one to take him down for the win and first place.
IND-JAX: Firesale going on in Indy. I think the Jaguars come back rested from London trips and start going on a run here with a win by 11+ to start here.
MIN-DET: One of the worst 6-0 teams I’ve ever seen, the Vikings should go down this week. But after the Lions beat GB 20-17 last week, it wouldn’t shock me if that’s the same score here too.
ATL-TB: Hardest division to get a read on other than none of these teams are going far in the playoffs. Baker Mayfield came back last week and barely had to throw for the team to score 43 points. I’m just going to pick them at home, though we’ll see if Penix can have success against that defense the way Kirk Cousins did when he was there.
LV-NYJ: Raiders could stop the slide here, but I think Geno Smith has one of his best games to stick it to the Raiders. Maybe even a Cousins interception by the defense that never gets any to get a start on the Mendoza era next time out after a fifth-straight loss.
LAC-LAR: Battle of Los Angeles and who is the most disappointing team in the NFL this season. You know, with the way the Rams blow leads and the way Justin Herbert has failed on seven straight 4QC/GWD attempts, I’m not sure I’d want to see him with the ball late in this one and a one-score margin. He’s due for a win at some point here after the Chargers have lost 9 straight. But I’m going to trust the Rams to get it done and win by 7+.
KC-DEN: It sounds like Rashee Rice and Jaylon Moore are back, but now the defense is down two corners (Sneed and Delane). That should help Bo Nix, who didn’t even try to throw deep in Week 1 but is coming off his most vertical game of 2026 vs. Arizona. I picked the Chiefs to go 10-7 and split the season series with Denver. I’m not backing away from it now. Denver wins and the Chiefs make a move or two before the trade deadline after another road loss to a contender.
NE-MIA: Not a game I’d bet on. We’ll see if the Dolphins can build off their first win in a home spot they’ve often had success against NE with over the years. But I’m still going to back the Patriots as I don’t like the talent on Miami.
PHI-WAS: Who knows? I’ll split the difference and take the Eagles to cover, Washington to win. It came down to a late 2PC in Week 1 but obviously the Eagles have lost a lot of talent since.
CHI-SEA: Really good offense (Ben Johnson) vs. defense (Mike Macdonald) matchup for these coaches. Johnson is 14-3 ATS in non-division games, and the last time he played a Macdonald defense (2024 Lions vs. Seahawks), his passing offense completed 100% of its 19 attempts. I don’t think Caleb Williams will come close to doing that against this defense, but the way you beat Seattle is having some balance (run the ball) and getting takeaways to force short fields. The Bears do those two things well, so I’m going with the upset here and backing Chicago.
Week 7 in the NFL is off to an entertaining start with Chicago’s 30-24 victory over the Patriots. We have some more quality matchups this Sunday, including a potential Super Bowl preview on Sunday night between the Chiefs (5-0) and Seahawks (3-3).
Chiefs at Seahawks: MVP vs. OPOY Distinction
Sunday night’s big game has the leading rusher (Kenneth Walker) and leading receiver/Triple Crown candidate (Jaxon Smith-Njigba) in the NFL. That makes both players heavy contenders for the Offensive Player of the Year (OPOY) award, which JSN won last year and Walker has the best odds for (+230) at the moment.
But some think both players should be high up there in the NFL MVP odds race as well. But Walker has just +8000 odds and isn’t even the highest non-quarterback as Jahmyr Gibbs (Lions) is +5000 at FanDuel. JSN is +40000, which is at least ahead of Sam Darnold (+50000), his struggling quarterback.
2026 NFL MVP Odds from FanDuel (10/24/2026)
Since 2007, every MVP winner except for Adrian Peterson in 2012 was a quarterback. Since 2019, every OPOY winner was a running back or wide receiver who led the league in the yardage stat for their position. I think that’s been valid too as quarterback is the most valuable position, and the MVP should almost always be the best quarterback that year. OPOY is a nice consolation prize to the yardage winner. The stat hound.
But given the lack of historic quarterback seasons post-COVID, there has been more clamoring for voters to think outside the box and honor another position like a running back, which used to win MVP with more frequency than today’s “almost never” approach.
The problem is most can never exceed the value of their quarterback, and Patrick Mahomes having almost 10x better odds at +900 than Walker also signifies the popularity contest aspect of this. Note that Jared Goff is only +2500 compared to +5000 for Gibbs, because Goff carries a negative stigma. Always has. Mahomes is still Mahomes; the guy who had the best start in NFL history without productive running backs in Kansas City.
But leave it up to some NFL fans/media to act like Kenneth Walker glamming it up for five games against the weakest portion of the Chiefs’ schedule is somehow a negative for Mahomes. I’ve already seen tweets that a Walker MVP would disqualify Mahomes from GOAT discussions, and that he’s being “carried” by his running back – who never played this well in Seattle by the way – and isn’t even as valuable to his team as Fred Warner, an off-ball linebacker who doesn’t even rush the passer.
They’re really gonna give the Comeback Player of the Year award to Patrick Mahomes? He’s literally being carried by his running back…
Once again, the best quarterback always gets held to the most ridiculous standards. Mahomes goes his first eight seasons as a starter without a 1,000-yard rusher, and people couldn’t wait to use a 5-game run by Walker to diminish him. I can assure you this hasn’t happened to other QBs in comparable situations:
Did we not see Josh Allen somehow still get two first-place MVP votes in 2025 after James Cook won the rushing title?
Only Buffalo fans cared in 2024 that Lamar Jackson had a career year as a passer with Derrick Henry feeding off him in a mutually beneficial relationship in Baltimore.
No one was trying to belittle Tom Brady in 2004 when the Patriots added Corey Dillon and it helped him use more vertical passes instead of the dink-and-dunk short king he was in 2001-03.
The Rams traded for Marshall Faulk in 1999 and got a 1000-yard rushing/1000-yard receiving season out of him, but Kurt Warner was still the MVP and catalyst for that Super Bowl season and the birth of the Greatest Show on Turf.
Walker has played great, and a big part of his greatness is the way he’s broken tackles at an absurd rate. But without getting knee deep into an MVP discussion after six games, I just want to clarify that the MVP odds are a projection on what will happen the rest of the season rather than a current implied probability of who is leading so far.
And the odds are basically correct. Maybe Walker should be higher than +8000, but Mahomes is worthy of a top 3 ranking as the quarterback of the only undefeated team in the AFC who is leading the NFL in yards per drive and game on offense. Mahomes is still averaging 261.8 passing yards per game (ranked 9th) with the third-highest passing success rate (54.3%) in the league. That’s not someone getting carried by a RB.
Speaking of carry, look what happened in the game the Chiefs were pushed to the brink the most against the Colts in overtime, a 33-30 shootout. Mahomes threw for 382 yards and 3 touchdowns in that one, including some huge third-and-long conversions and multiple go-ahead drives in crunch time. He was the MVP of that game.
The Chiefs lead the NFL in scoring differential per game thru Week 6, and they have been accused of “playing with their food” in some of these games as they could have easily won by even bigger margins against the Chargers, Dolphins, and Raiders if they played smarter. They haven’t played a tough schedule at all, though they have arguably the toughest remaining slate in 2026.
But the game against the Colts was telling in who they had to rely on, and it’s going to happen again later in the season starting on Thanksgiving when the Chiefs have that gauntlet of Bills, Rams, Bengals on the road followed by the Patriots and 49ers. If Walker is still healthy and playing like this, then hats off to him. He’s probably been the most fun back to watch in the NFL this year since Le’Veon Bell in 2014. And he’ll probably win OPOY.
But if the Chiefs want to get back to doing Chiefs things like having an elite offense that gets the team the No. 1 seed and sets them up for another Super Bowl run, it’s going to have to be with Mahomes leading the way in most of those tough games later in the season. That’s why he’s the MVP candidate and Walker is still the OPOY candidate.
And Sunday night is maybe a great opportunity for Mahomes to step up, because he’s not going to have Rashee Rice again, his WR1. He already lost his best deep threat and I think best red-zone receiver in Tyquan Thornton. The Chiefs will also start two backup tackles on the road. That hurts Walker as well, but the loss of the wideouts combined with an ankle injury for Travis Kelce makes life much harder on Mahomes than anyone else this week as you know Seattle coach Mike Macdonald should cook up something good to avoid a Kenneth Walker Revenge Game getting dumped on their heads. It’s not the Seattle defense that is the problem; it’s Darnold and the offense.
The last time Mahomes played a Macdonald defense was the 2023 AFC Championship Game in Baltimore. He was on the money to Kelce early and they won 17-10. It might have to be that kind of score again with the injuries on offense. But it’s not normal for a HOF quarterback to have this much flux at receiver and offensive tackle like Mahomes has dealt with since 2022.
It’s even less common to have the level of success he’s continued to have despite these roster holes. Let him have Walker. He’s allowed to have something useful on offense around him.
NFL Week 7 Predictions
I kind of picked the push on Thursday night with the Bears winning by exactly 3, but I’m taking the win on the spread there. It was always Chicago by one score.
PIT-NO: I think Aaron Rodgers stays hot in Paris against a bottom-ranked scoring defense. Also, I’m sure his wife would be pissed he didn’t have more time to show her around Paris (if she was real).
TB-CAR: Starting to trust the Panthers in this division with that offense, and I think Todd Bowles is in the territory of the first coach fired.
SF-ATL: No Mike Evans and Deebo? Speaking of the MVP discourse, let’s see what impact that has on Brock Purdy when he has JAGS at wide receiver and can only rely on future HOFers at TE, RB, and LT.. But I think the Falcons have a 2025 Buffalo or Rams type performance at home and steal this one.
CIN-BAL: Damnit Lamar, are we doing this again? The spread flipped about 4.5 points with the expectations he won’t be able to go again in a huge game for the AFC North. I don’t trust Tyler Huntley to score enough though it’d be nice to see him expose that Cincinnati defense that I still don’t trust as championship worthy.
NYG-HOU: No problem with giving J.J. McCarthy a shot when you know what Jameis Winston is. The Texans are not a bully on defense like they were in 2024-25. I’m still taking the Texans to win because the offense is looking good, but I think the Giants can at least stay within 10. Backdoor cover potential always there.
MIA-NYJ: Yuck. I just don’t think the Jets are good enough to trust an easy cover. I’ll hedge and take Miami ATS coming off the bye. Division games are ripe for weirdness.
CLE-TEN: They played a close one last year. You know the Browns are shaky at 4-2 when they’re only a 1.5-point favorite against this dreadful Titans team. But sad to say, I could see Watson getting a 5th GWD of the season here.
IND-MIN: Are the Colts going to blow a 33-point in this one like in 2022? Where’s Jeff Saturday when you need him? I still don’t believe in Minnesota, but I think they find a way to win another close one for KOC.
DEN-ARI: Denver is a rough watch and another team farming GWDs for playing poorly the first three quarters. The Cardinals are coming off that big upset of the Rams but that was a division game. I’ll take the Broncos to lock down Brissett and get the win even if it’s by 5 points.
LAR-LV: At this point, who knows? The Rams could beat or lose to any team in the NFL on any given Sunday this year. Losing Davante Adams hurts. Puka left a practice injured too this week. It’s not looking great and the Raiders have played teams (minus NE) tough. Could easily see Cousins outdueling Stafford late for the win here, but I guess I’m going down with the ship and still picking the Rams another week.
GB-DET: Big one here for the NFC North. I’m going to take the Lions for coming off a bye at home with a great offense that is clicking right now. Packers are playing better though, and with the Lions only turning it over once in Week 1, you never know when that regression disaster game is coming when they turn it over 4-5 times and lose. But I don’t love the 3-point spread for GB (I’d be taking them at 5.5 probably), so I’m going to side with Detroit for now.
KC-SEA: I had a long preview written for this game and I’m not seeing the link available on that site. Bummer. But I said after Super Bowl 59 I would not pick the Chiefs in a big game against an elite defense when they had multiple linemen out. This is another one of those games, and while the Seahawks haven’t shown an overwhelming pass rush this year, they are capable of greatness on that side of the ball. Still No. 1 in yards allowed at the moment .
Throw in the injured receivers for the Chiefs, the lack of moves they’ve made at that position after the Raiders game, and I just see them struggling on the road here offensively. Can still win if Darnold plays poorly and throws some picks forcing it to JSN. I kind of want to pick the Chiefs to win a 17-14 game here (same score Denver beat Seattle last week), but I could see the Seahawks winning a 23-16 game too with Darnold hitting some YOLO balls this week against a Chiefs defense that hasn’t been tested much either by the schedule.
DAL-PHI: Can the Cowboys go for the trifecta of prime-time losses? I absolutely think Tanner McKee can pull this off and look like 2017 Nick Foles against that defense. It’s that bad. Someone has to win a fvcking game in the NFC East again this season. Why not the Eagles at home against the team they hate most?
The NFL kicked off Week 6 with a bit of history as you had three straight prime-time games in the regular season go to overtime since Sunday night. But this Thursday was a bit of a dud when Bo Nix tied the record for most game-winning drives through three seasons (15) in the most Bo Nix way possible by throwing for 107 yards on 27 attempts in a 17-14 overtime win.
The GWD was set up by another Sam Darnold interception, and Nix had two runs for 3 yards on an 8-yard drive that did not gain a first down.
Most game-winning drives in a QB's first 3 seasons
Bo Nix – 15 Russell Wilson – 15 Dak Prescott – 15 Matt Ryan – 13 Justin Herbert – 13 https://t.co/ZKZyvKbE81
I don’t know how Nix keeps doing this Elway-meets-Tebow thing as that’s now 12 game-winning drives in his last 20 starts. But with that win, that’s now 10 straight prime-time games in the NFL where the underdog won outright. The last favorite to win was the Rams on MNF against the Giants in Week 2.
I had to look up how insane that is, so I went back to 2006 when the NFL brought back Thursday Night Football. The 10-game streak of underdogs winning outright dwarfs everything as the next closest streak was 6 games, and that was during the 2020 COVID season where you had empty stadiums and record-setting offensive numbers.
#NFL Longest losing streaks in prime time by favorites since 2006
1. Sept/Oct. 2026 – 10 games (current) 2. Sept/Oct. 2020 – 6 games (COVID season) 3. Oct/Nov. 2011 – 5 games 3. Sept. 2014 – 5 games
Notice that three of the four streaks came in Sept/Oct. where the spreads may not be as accurate with everyone trying to get a read on these teams early in the season. Still, it’s been a wild streak as the previous worst record for favorites in any 10-game stretch since 2006 in prime time was 2-8.
We’ll see if it can continue another week.
NFL Week 6 Predictions
I expected Denver to win basically the way they did against Seattle (by capitalizing on Sam Darnold mistakes to win by 3 points and without an impressive offensive display.)
HOU-JAX: Looking forward to this one actually as I think it’s Houston’s last shot to compete for the AFC South this year. I’m actually going to go with them as I think the Jaguars could struggle with their backup LT against those Houston edge rushers (Anderson Jr. is playing great), and Houston’s offense is starting to figure things out. Jaguars have been more consistent this year but division games are always tough.
CHI-ATL: Sounds like we’re getting Caleb Williams vs. Michael Penix as the QBs. Penix is still technically 0-7 at GWDs even though he’s put the team in position multiple times to win. But I think Chicago bounces back in a big way with Caleb and wins this one late.
BAL-CLE: Another week without Lamar, but I think Tyler Huntley can hold it down and I don’t see the Browns scoring a ton here. That 3-1 start was pretty much a mirage.
NYJ-NE: The Patriots have had a few good games in a row now and usually take care of the Jets with few problems. I don’t expect much out of this game.
NO-NYG: Saints have given the Giants a ton of problems over the years, but I think Jameis gets it done at home as I just don’t trust the Saints right now.
TEN-IND: Division games can always be tougher than expected, but the Titans just lost 26-3 to winless Houston last week. This team just looks lost to me. I can’t trust them to cover and the Colts have been consistently beating them under Steichen.
CAR-PHI: In a normal week I wouldn’t feel bad at all with Tanner McKee starting for Jalen Hurts (blood clot). But these are not normal times for the Eagles. There’s no Saquon, A.J. Brown, or Lane Johnson for McKee this week. Panthers had the bye week too and the Eagles are coming off that shocking London loss. It wouldn’t surprise me if the Panthers win by 3 points for the Eagles to steal a cover, but I’m just going to go with the healthier, better rested team in Carolina that should be able to put up some points. They should have won in Philly in 2024 if Mr. Raccoon Eater (Xavier Legette) didn’t drop that TD.
PIT-TB: By my count, Aaron Rodgers is just 6-6 in the state of Florida with some of the ugliest losses of his career. Florida is where you go to die after retirement, but Rodgers is on a good streak of games with 3 TD passes. However, he’s down some WRs here, and the Bucs didn’t look so bad with Jalon Daniels in Dallas. He’ll start again for an injured Baker. The Steelers should win a road game eventually this season, but I’m just going to side with the Bucs winning this one at home as I think the Steelers lack the WRs to score many points, and I can see a mobile Daniels giving them problems on scrambles and broken plays. Bowles should blitz Rodgers too and test that OL.
ARI-LAR: Cards aren’t an explosive offense right now, and I think McVay is genuinely pissed at losing that Buffalo game. I think he’ll run it up here and the Rams win big to get back to .500. Don’t put it on a new kicker. Just kick a bad team’s ass.
BUF-LV: The Raiders were destroyed by the Patriots last week. They should play much better at home against a bad Buffalo defense, but I think Kirk Cousins’ lack of mobility will continue to give him some issues, and Greg Rousseau is having a special start for the pass rush. I think the Bills win by at least a TD.
LAC-KC: I liked the underdog line a lot more at +9.5, but this has to be your classic Chargers cover, Chiefs win type of game most likely. It doesn’t sound like Mahomes will have Josh Simmons or Rashee Rice, so another game without LT1 and WR1 (and his true best WR in Tyquan Thornton) for him. But they have Kenneth Walker, Kelce should step up, and Justin Herbert is on an 0-for-7 streak at GWDs.
Still, it’d be such a classic NFL thing for the 0-5 team to beat the 4-0 team in a division game. I do think it’s a game where the Chiefs will struggle. Maybe seeing that defense will wake up Herbert the way Buffalo brought Drake Maye back to life two weeks ago. But the Chiefs can’t afford to blow this one in a tough AFC race with harder games to come. I think they win but won’t cover.
DAL-GB: Here we go in prime time again with teams that played to a 40-40 tie on SNF last year. Historically, the Packers seem to always beat Dallas in the Rodgers/Love eras, and GB is playing better after a poor start. Dallas had an embarrassing home loss to Tampa, and that game is really the main reason why the shocking 10-game winning streak for underdogs in prime time is intact.
It would be fitting for Jerry Jones’ squad to end a streak they helped extend to record length by losing again here as the underdog. I think that’s what will happen too even though I expect a GWD opportunity in this one.
WAS-SF: Maybe we go on a counter run with favorites dominating in prime time starting this weekend. The 49ers won’t go undefeated or anything like that, but I don’t trust a Dan Quinn-coached team to be the one that knocks them off. His defense won’t stop this offense, and Daniels is not playing the best right now. I begrudgingly take the home favorite to cover to end the week.
The NFC West was always the story of this 2026 season with three Super Bowl contenders in one division, and they take center stage in a soft Week 5 schedule that heats up late on Sunday afternoon and the best Monday night game of the year so far.
The 49ers are 4-0 and have played the best football of any team.
The Seahawks are 3-1 and have been out of the spotlight after Sam Darnold was injured on the opening drive of the season, and they lost to Washington in his return game. But they can get back on top with a win here.
The Rams are 2-2 after a much needed comeback against the Eagles, and maybe they can get on a roll by beating Buffalo in a clash of the teams with the best Super Bowl odds (what ever value that holds in October).
Just a huge week for these teams, and they’ll play the Chiefs later this season, and the Rams and Seahawks won’t meet until Christmas. But for an early Game of the Year in the NFL, it’s hard to beat 49ers at Seahawks tomorrow at 4:25. Brock Purdy has a chance to make ground in the MVP argument after his hot start, but he’s going up against an elite pass defense that destroyed his offense in the two meetings late last season.
The 49ers will have George Kittle this time after he was injured in the playoffs, and he looks great so far this year. They also have Mike Evans as a new weapon this year, and Deebo Samuel is back and looks fine. Purdy is playing as well as he ever has, and he did beat the Seahawks in Seattle to start last year as Mike Macdonald actually has a far better road record than at home.
But I think the Seahawks can flex that defense again, and I’m not sure the 49ers can stop JSN. The question is whether Darnold can step up under pressure as he hasn’t done a good job at all so far this year. It should be a good one.
On Monday night, can we just get a good game? They’ve all been blowouts so far. These teams met in 2024 and it was a 44-42 final even though the Bills consistently trailed by multiple scores. The Rams have to play a clean offensive game here as Matthew Stafford’s had too many turnovers already, and he’s getting a Buffalo defense that has already given up 29-31 points in three games. They look worse without Sean McDermott on that side of the ball, and the offense has been making plenty of mistakes the last two games after getting away with some reckless plays in the first two weeks.
Stat Oddity will be delayed until Tuesday as I have some work to do tomorrow night, and I want to make sure I cover MNF in it.
NFL Week 5 Predictions
Welp, Dallas had one of its worst losses on TNF against the winless Bucs, who failed to cover the spread in 13 straight games before that upset. Onto the next.
PHI-JAX: It feels like the sky is falling on the Eagles this week with injuries and Lane Johnson retiring. The Jags are used to this London thing. I’d be surprised if they didn’t win by more than a touchdown here.
CIN-MIA: Joe Burrow in his element, beating up a crap pass defense for a Miami team that’s yet to have a lead at any point this season. The wide receivers sound like they’ll both be active too for Burrow. I don’t expect to see him trailing late in this one.
MIN-NO: Someone has to end this Minnesota undefeated charade. I think the Saints have the right stuff to do it with Shough having that ability to shake off a bad half and get things going late. I think the Saints get a GWD.
LV-NE: Lots of injuries for the New England corners but the Raiders lack receivers. Tough call. I’m going to split the difference and take the Raiders ATS, NE ML as I think Cousins can keep this close with the way the Raiders have been scoring. But NE’s win last week should build confidence for Maye and company.
CLE-NYJ: Definitely feels like a game that will shine in the Witching Hour with a close finish between Watson and Geno. But I’m going to go with the Jets to get an interception in back-to-back weeks after getting that drought out of the way, and they’ll find a way to win this one.
IND-PIT: I like the Steelers at home. 10 days of rest for Rodgers, the Colts rank 32nd in pass pressure rate and 32nd in rush yards before contact per attempt, so I think Rodgers and Jaylen Warren play well. T.J. Watt and the defense show up at home against the offense they turned over 6x last season.
HOU-TEN: You know you’re terrible when you’re a 7-point home dog to an 0-4 team. But the Texans have blown 3 4Q leads, and I think they win big here as they’re just the better team on both sides of the ball.
NYG-WAS: Tough call but I’m going to give Washington a bone at home as Jayden Daniels needs to show he can stay healthy and get a big division win in an NFC East that is wide open.
CHI-GB: I remember picking the Bears to beat Washington right after Dick Butkus died, and I got a similar feeling here with Mike Ditka passing this week. I’m not sure if Ben Johnson has any history with him or if the young players even care, but I think Chicago shows out even with Bagent at QB again, I’m playing Colston Loveland for a TD, and I got the Bears winning this one as the Packers have played terrible football.
DEN-LAC: The Chargers are totally banged up again (OL, WR, Derwin James, etc.). Crazy how this happens so often. Look for Sean Payton to rub it in and run it up as Denver gets an easy win.
SF-SEA: Tough call as I do like the offensive juggernaut in the regular season. But I think the Seahawks find a way and win by 4+.
DET-ARI: Potential shootout but the Lions better win a road game here. Already lost at Buffalo and Carolina.
ATL-BAL: Underdogs have been kicking ass in prime time all season, but so have the Falcons the last two weeks. Conventional wisdom says Ravens fold without Lamar, but I think Tyler Huntley makes it competitive and the Falcons win by 1-3 points at the end.
BUF-LAR: I wouldn’t expect 44-42 but it could be. Rams still aren’t going to have Myles Garrett and Aaron Donald together, but I think Sean McVay can scheme up a bunch of big plays against this Buffalo defense, and look out for D.J. Moore’s injury report as his absence could be a notable loss for the Bills if he can’t go. But I’ll take the Rams at home.
The calendar has moved to October, so we’re already at Week 4 in this NFL season. This is when shit gets real as some of these teams with poor starts could effectively be an afterthought tomorrow night if they fall to 0-4. We’re looking at the Chargers and Texans more than anyone, and don’t forget the Buccaneers are also 0-3 with a rookie quarterback (Jalon Daniels) about to start.
The only team in the Super Bowl era to start 0-4 and still make the playoffs was the 1992 San Diego Chargers, who turned an 0-4 start into an 11-5 finish and even won a playoff game. Maybe things are different now with 17 games and a third wild card spot, but 0-4 is a huge hole to dig from, and those teams have their hands full tomorrow with the Chargers facing Seattle off a loss, and the Texans have to outscore Dallas.
But you also get some huge divisional games as the Chiefs and Raiders battle for first place, the first time both teams were ever 3-0 when meeting in that rivalry dating back to 1960. If you argue no game with Derek Carr was ever truly a big game, then this is the biggest game for the Raiders since Super Bowl 37. A chance for the Raiders to show they’re legit as 84.7% (111 of 131) teams to start 4-0 since 1978 made the playoffs that year. Also a chance for the Chiefs to showcase they’re back to being the Super Bowl contender in the AFC. Not ‘a’ contender; the contender as they need to play smart and avoid the stupid mistakes they had in road losses last year like Jacksonville and Dallas.
Patriots vs. Bills is another division game where you damn near could see Buffalo mentally wrap up the division by Week 4 if they drop the Patriots to 1-3 here. That’d be a huge early lead in reclaiming the AFC East. Another tough opponent for The Schedule as the league really juiced up the first four games for New England this year. I’d argue they played more tough games in Weeks 1-4 than all of the 2025 regular season. Or at least an equal number.
You also have the Rams taking on the Eagles, and Sean McVay is 0-4 against Nick Sirianni. For shame. But there’s a lot of big-name injuries with that game, and one of those teams is about to start a losing streak after both were favored to win their divisions this year. The Rams are even in danger of starting 1-3 while the Browns are 3-1 after trading them Myles Garrett.
Crazy ass league. But it’s still early, though Sunday is getting late early for some of these teams who really need a win.
NFL Week 4 Predictions
JFC, Week 3 might have been my worst picks of all time as I was 2-14 ATS. I know 7-9 SU isn’t my worst week, but in a week where most games were close in the fourth quarter, I just kept coming out on the wrong side of things. But after picking Cleveland to win outright on Thursday, I’m already halfway to as many spread picks correct in Week 4.
IND-WAS: I can’t see myself getting up earlier than 11:30 AM for this one. But I think the Commanders always play well with Marcus Mariota for some reason, and they should feel energized after upsetting the Seahawks last week. I think they’ll get after Daniel Jones enough in this one to pull it out for the win.
TEN-BAL: Derrick Henry against his former team? Should be a good day for him. The Ravens need a blowout victory, and the Titans are the right kind of team to do it against as I just don’t see Cam Ward being able to keep up.
NYJ-CHI: Do teams really need to stick to the depth chart when it’s QB2 vs. QB3? I know you need to protect the ego of QB1, but I’m not sure when it comes to deciding between backups that you don’t just give Case Keenum another start after what he did on Monday night. But I was curious to see Tyson Bagent in Ben Johnson’s offense, and we’ll see if he can avoid being the QB who actually throws a pick to Aaron Glenn’s defense. But I think this could be a nail-biter. I’m still going to trust Johnson and the weapons for the Bears to score enough to cover even if it’s like a 24-20 final.
GB-TB: You never know what the rookie backup QB will do, and we’ve seen the Packers lose to Tommy DeVito before in prime time. But I’m still going to trust the Packers, with extra days off, to win this one against a Tampa Bay team that’s just been bad. I like Jalon Daniels to score a rushing TD though.
JAX-CIN: It wasn’t until Friday morning that I realized this game is in Cincy instead of Jacksonville. I’d probably take the Jags at home, but I think the Bengals get this one as they’re 4-0 against the Jaguars since 2020, and every game saw both teams score 20+ points. Don’t even be surprised if Joe Burrow improves his record to 2-34 when trailing in the final 8:00 as the Jaguars are one of the only teams that Zac Taylor’s crew, including games with Jake Browning at QB in 2023 and 2025, come through in the clutch for. I think Liam Coen’s offense can expose some things the Steelers did last week with this CIN D, but I still have some reservations about Trevor Lawrence in crunch time on the road.
NE-BUF: Might be an upset spot but the Patriots have some big defensive injuries, including Christian Gonzalez, and A.J. Brown is still out on offense. Could be a spot for TreVeyon Henderson to break one as he got the Bills twice for long touchdowns last year. But I still don’t trust the Patriots and the way they’re playing right now, so I’d pick the Bills to win by 7+ points.
ARI-NYG: The Cardinals haven’t shown a ton since beating the Chargers in Week 1. I think Harbaugh’s defense could succeed against a stationary Brissett, and I like Jameis to put up bigger numbers this week. I’ll take the Giants SU as the home dog.
DAL-HOU: I originally picked Dallas to win, but I see Nico Collins is back, and he changes the offense for Stroud, and he still gets a vulnerable Dallas defense. Out of desperation, the Texans find a way to get a win here.
LAR-PHI: It’s not good that it’s Week 4 and the Rams won’t have Aaron Donald or Myles Garrett against the team they haven’t been able to beat, and the team they blew a 19-point lead against last year. But when you swap Puka Nacua in for the Rams and DeVonta Smith OUT for the Eagles, I think that makes up the difference this time. I’ll take the Rams as I think they’ve shown flashes of great football while the Eagles struggled with the Titans and looked really bad against Case Keenum and the Bears on Monday.
MIA-MIN: Crazy 10.5-point spread when Justin Jefferson is out and the Vikings are getting so little out of the QB position. But I guess the Dolphins have been that bad even though they played the 49ers and Chiefs tough for 2-3 quarters before losing big. Still, I’m absolutely taking Miami to cover, and if I was the OC, I’d anticipate Brian Flores blitzing and counter with some designed runs and draws for Malik Willis. I’m playing his rushing props in this one (nothing else though).
LAC-SEA: Honestly, who knows? The Chargers blew a game in Buffalo despite 5 takeaways, and were dog shit at home to the Cards and Raiders. The Seahawks had that 10-point comeback against New England with Drew Lock, but they lost to Washington with Darnold back. I’m just going to trust the better defense and the home team to get it done. JSN is on fire too.
DEN-SF: Bo Nix vs. a Shanahan team in a close game? Not ideal, but I think the 49ers are playing elite offense and will either put it out of reach, or Purdy will come through late and they win this one by 3+. Decent game.
KC-LV: I keep bringing up 2025 Jacksonville and Dallas for the Chiefs, but I think this one plays out more like 2024 Carolina where they establish they’re the better team early. But the Raiders with Bowers back find enough holes on the defense to tie it late behind Cousins, and Mahomes has to go get a walk-off FG in maybe his favorite stadium to play. Chiefs win 30-27, a classic KC win without a cover.
DET-CAR: All the great games this week and they picked this one for SNF? Could easily see some Bryce Young magic in the 4Q, but I’m going with the Lions by a FG. Corners out for Carolina is too much to overcome in the end.
NO-ATL: I really think the winner of this game could go on to win the NFC South. I like some of what the Saints do with Shough, but I still like the talent around Penix more, and I trust Stefanski a little more than Kellen Moore at the moment. Tough atmosphere in the Superdome, but I’m going with Atlanta.
It’s already Week 3 in the NFL, and we’ll see if the offensive fireworks of Week 1 return, or if we’ll get more low-scoring games with quarterback injuries like Week 2 had in abundance. Either way, it’s just two bits of information so far. Still, not many teams have shown excellence on both sides of the ball outside of the 49ers.
I can remember years ago facing backlash for using a full season’s worth of data (or multiple seasons) to draw conclusions or at least suggest things. Today, the Twitter Chart Bros don’t need more than a week or two to post stuff and act like it’s indicative of what will happen the rest of the year. After all, you could really take any two-game sample from a season and find weird things. That doesn’t mean it’s going to be the norm for anyone or any team based on what’s happened so far. I’ve also never seen any evidence that Weeks 1-2 are more predictive than Weeks 7-8 or Weeks 12-13.
It’s just two games, but that doesn’t mean some teams aren’t in need of a win in a big way this weekend. The 0-2 teams really can’t afford to start 0-3 as someone will in the AFC South between the Colts and Texans. The Chargers are also facing the scariest proposition of starting 0-3 with a game at Buffalo after already blowing their “easy home games” to the Cardinals and Raiders, both 26-14 losses. That’s rough.
But the struggles of Jordan Love and Justin Herbert have been a big part of the quarterback discourse this week after the Packers also lost on Thursday night by three touchdowns at home to the Falcons. They barely beat the Jets on Sunday in overtime too as both teams just look like bad football teams right now.
Sure, the Packers don’t have Micah Parsons, and Love lost some of his receiver depth (Wicks and Doubs; Jayden Reed injured in Week 2). Josh Jacobs also screwed things up off the field, but how much would he rush for behind this offensive line that’s been a big problem so far?
Herbert has had receiver drops, and Joe Alt hasn’t looked up to par in his return from injury at tackle. The interior line is not good. The defense has taken a step back without coordinator Jesse Minter. Jim Harbaugh hasn’t had the answers yet.
It’s a tough spot for any quarterback to be in when your receivers aren’t trustworthy, your line stinks, running game is an afterthought, and the defense isn’t special. In the past, only the elite of elite quarterbacks could really excel in that position like a Marino, Peyton, or Mahomes. That’s why it always made sense to pay the best quarterbacks only the biggest bucks while quarterbacks like Love and Herbert are close to the top salary despite not elevating enough to that level to say it’s worth it. Not to mention it’s a cost that makes it harder to build up the rest of the roster.
Alas, it’s been two weeks (three for GB). We’ll see if these teams and quarterbacks can turn it around, but it’s not looking good for Herbert and Love in 2026.
NFL Week 3 Predictions
Yep, I didn’t trust the Falcons and they proved me wrong in a big way. Another bad prime-time game this season.
CAR-CLE: I almost took the Browns but let’s go with the Panthers to get a one-score win on the road. Bryce Young upstages Predator in the clutch.
NYJ-DET: Let’s see if Geno Smith, who had some nice games in Detroit when he was with Seattle, can keep the ball away from the opponent like he has the first two weeks for the Jets. The Lions have been shaky, and I think Jared Goff is going to throw the pick (or more) to Aaron Glenn’s defense to break the drought in Glenn’s return game against his mentor. I’ll still take the Lions to win by 1-6 in the end, but I think the Jets can make life difficult on them.
JAX-NE: They haven’t met since London 2024 and much has changed since, including the coaching staffs. I’m going to cautiously pick the Jags to bounce back after the Denver loss, score enough points at home, and Maye isn’t playing well enough right now (still no A.J. Brown) to trust him to win this one.
HOU-IND: I picked the Texans to win the division, so I’m going with them to avoid 0-3. Better defense. Offense has been hit or miss so far.
LAC-BUF: It would be such a typical NFL thing for the Chargers to win in Buffalo after shitting the bed at home the first two weeks. Mike McDaniel has also had some success at scoring with his Miami offenses in Buffalo before. A lot of pressure on Herbert right now, and we know the Bills have allowed 31 points in both games. However, the Chargers have 31 points in Herbert’s last three starts. The best I can do is a cover and one-score loss on the road as I see Herbert with a 4QC chance in this one that comes up short.
KC-MIA: First road game for Mahomes since Thanksgiving in Dallas, I believe. One of the weakest opponents he’s faced in years, so I think the offense does well. Malik Willis might be good for scrambling props if they play man against his weak receivers. Chiefs covering is always tricky, so I could see a 31-21 final where Chiefs don’t cover here.
CIN-PIT: Bengals usually play better in PIT than they do at home in this rivalry. I think the defenses dominate the day, the Steelers won’t be able to run, so I love Aaron Rodgers over 34.5 pass attempts. Only concern there is he takes too many sacks and gets injured. But I just don’t see them running the ball well here with an injured Warren and that new defensive front for the Bengals.
SEA-WAS: Darnold in, Daniels out. Not sure it makes a huge difference for either team to be honest, but then I remember the way Darnold absolutely shredded this defense last year on SNF in the game Daniels foolishly got injured for being in the game so late. But I’d expect the Seahawks to win by 8+ here.
TEN-NYG: Dart is gone. I think Jameis with prep to start will play better. Still don’t trust the Titans to win games.
ARI-SF: Hard to believe this is the first time the 49ers have started 2-0 with 20-point wins. Division games are weird, so this may be a struggle more than expected, but I like them by double digits. Give me a Mike Evans TD and Kittle over in yards.
MIN-TB: Sounds like Kyler Murray is back, but I’m going to throw the Bucs a bone at home to avoid 0-3 and steal this one in the 4Q. But it’s been a rough start, so I wouldn’t be surprised if the Vikings are 3-0.
BAL-DAL: Hopefully the field is good in Brazil. I remember the Ravens nearly blew a huge lead in Dallas in 2024 and only won by 3. That weighed into my pick and almost made me take Dallas ATS. But I think the Ravens recover from last week’s blown lead and get the win by 4+. No Zay Flowers is rough though. I just trust the Baltimore run offense to dominate.
NO-LV: Should be a game that goes down to the wire. I am starting to trust Tyler Shough in those moments, and I still think the Raiders are 2-0 fool’s gold. I’ll take the Saints though it could be a push on the spread.
LAR-DEN: Rams in prime time again and after a short week with Puka still injured? Denver can put Surtain on Davante. I don’t love the matchup, but I also think the Rams can dominate Bo Nix’s offense, and Stafford could pull it out late as we finally see some close-game regression start for these teams. Rams lost so many close ones last year while Denver won so many (including another last week). But I think the Rams get it done at the end of the game.
PHI-CHI: I really wanted to see what Ben Johnson can do with Tyson Bagent. But it sounds like Case Keenum is the starter Monday night and that stinks. I’d probably avoid betting on this game, but I think Eagles get it done.
NFL teams tied the Week 1 scoring record with just under 50 points per game to start the 2026 season. When you watch the Lions and Bills play a 41-31 game on Thursday to begin Week 2, you might start thinking we are headed for an all-time scoring season around the league after a few years of stagnation.
But no so fast. I don’t think we should let the defenses of the Bills and Lions dictate what’s going to happen around the league this Sunday. It could be another high-scoring week, or we might see some reversion to where teams were a year ago as opponents dictate so much of how games play out.
You can say this every week once an NFL season is underway, but it’s going to be fun figuring out what was real in Week 1 and what’s going to look completely different this Sunday in Week 2. Every year you get good examples of this switch up in Week 2.
Before you bet, don't forget the NFL can be a wildly inconsistent league week to week.
In 2025, Russell Wilson was 17/37 for 168 yards in a 21-6 loss vs. WAS in Week 1.
In Week 2 at Dallas, he threw for 450/3 and lost 40-37.
I’ll note some things below that I think are real and going to happen again as well as some new twists. But I’d also like to point out that if you are expecting a lot of scoring again, maybe the oddsmakers have prepared for a dull Sunday of scoring. I’m not sure I’ve ever seen so many games on FanDuel where the player with the second-best odds for an anytime touchdown is priced this high:
PIT-NE: Jaylen Warren (+190)
TB-CLE: Emeka Egbuka (+155)
GB-NYJ: MarShawn Lloyd (+140)
PHI-TEN: Jalen Hurts (+140) [He’s often better than even]
SEA-ARI: JSN (+135) is #1, Jadarian Price (+170) is No. 2
DEN-JAX: B.Tuten (+170)
SF-MIA: Mike Evans/De’Von Achane (+140)
I doubt we’re getting a fairer shake from the oddsmakers this season. We might just be in store for some overcorrection for last week’s scoring, or we should acknowledge that a crazy number of injuries, especially at WR, have helped produce this.
Zay Flowers (BAL), Nico Collins (HOU), A.J. Brown (NE), and Michael Pittman Jr. (PIT) are all out at WR. Ladd McConkey (LAC) and Puka Nacua (LAR) have their status up in the air as both LA teams need a win. The Falcons are starting QB3 Cooper Rush again. Carson Wentz makes his first start of the season for Minnesota, though that could be a good thing for Justin Jefferson (2 TDs last week). Joe Burrow is questionable to play (maybe that one’s redundant). D.J. Moore (BUF) left Thursday night’s game injured, and I kind of loved that since it helped me hit 3 SGP on what looked like a night where he wasn’t going to do much.
It’s a long season but you can feel like you’re out of things quickly once those injuries start piling up. Then with the Giants potentially going to 2-0 and dropping the preseason favorite Rams to 0-2 to end this week, my Super Bowl pick might be in shambles before the first day of fall.
NFL Week 2 Predictions
I had a so-so Week 1 but no problem with TNF and Buffalo covering. They probably should have won by more than 10 points too.
CAR-ATL: You can’t lose to Cooper Rush and expect to be taken seriously, Carolina. They’ll get the win after showing they can score last week.
NO-BAL: Tricky without Zay after already losing some WR depth, but I can see the defense making life tough on Shough, and I got some props on Wester (30+ yards).
GB-NYJ: Possibly a step towards getting fired during the season if LaFleur loses this one. Jordan Love also wouldn’t help his status if he broke the Jets’ INT drought. But the Packers gotta find a way to win one.
CHI-MIN: I think some of last week carries over for Chicago and they post a good number to clear the over 26.5 points. I don’t think Wentz will protect the ball while trying to keep up in a shootout, so Chicago -4.5 is a top spread pick for me this week.
CIN-HOU: I originally had HOU -2.5, but after seeing Nico Collins is out, I think he’s such a crutch for Stroud, so I don’t expect the Texans to win this one.. 4Q could be comical with the lack of comebacks for both QBs in their careers.
PIT-NE: I was thinking of betting on Michael Pittman Jr. to step up big for Rodgers as I don’t expect much for Metcalf vs. Christian Gonzalez. Then I see MPJ is out too. Guess we’ll find out if the Steelers are a good team based on whether Drake “The Schedule” Maye plays well or struggles with them. The Steelers had 5 takeaways to upset the Pats on the road last year. But that’s a Tomlin type of win. Unless T.J. Watt is a superhero again, I don’t see the Steelers winning this one.
CLE-TB: Baker will shit all over the Browns. He just had to stop fumbling vs. Bengals last week. This should be a rout though I don’t like spreads of 8.5. But the Bucs need to win by 14+ to feel better about Week 1.
PHI-TEN: Titans just looked so lifeless vs. Jets last week. I can’t in good faith trust them here.
JAX-DEN: Jaguars won 34-20 at Denver last December. I think it’s closer this time and the Broncos don’t tackle as horribly as they did Monday vs. Chiefs. But I do like Trevor Lawrence to Parker Washington to get the upset win and drop Denver to 0-2. This time they lose a close one, the kind of game they kept winning last year.
LV-LAC: Ugh, won’t put much into this game with the way the Chargers stunk last week. Raiders did some competent things vs. Miami. The Chargers should win but you never know. Cursed.
ARI-SEA: Another tricky one cause the Cardinals played well, have better coaching, and the Seahawks don’t have Sam Darnold. I couldn’t go all the way in picking them to pull off another upset, so I hedged on the spread. But there’s upset potential and for all we know, the Cardinals could be 2-0 and on top of the NFC West after Monday night.
SF-MIA: A 2-TD spread for Week 2 is nasty but the Dolphins earn it. I think 49ers win by 14+ and I like Mike Evans to score a TD again.
WAS-DAL: Tough call here as it can be close again for the Commanders like vs. Eagles in Week 1. But I know they were blown out in Dallas last year. “Bill” not scoring a TD cost me some incredible wins, so I’m staying away from that game as I just don’t know what this WAS offense is since 2025.
IND-KC: These two rarely play a normal game, so I’m hedging on the classic Chiefs win but don’t cover. Daniel Jones is 1-15 in prime time, and KC’s defense was the most reassuring thing about last week’s performance. Got to see a better passing game, and I worry about the LT situation forcing them to either throw really quick so nothing develops downfield, or they risk Mahomes running around. That’s what’s missing in the KC passing game. They can’t comfortably hold the ball for 2.6-3 0 seconds and just scheme guys open. It’s either coming out in under 2 seconds or he’s extending it past 3.5 with improv, which opens him to injury risk.
But the Colts were the defense that Mahomes threw for his most yards against in 2025, and it was a game with rare clutch moments from Rice and Worthy. I think they get it done, though nothing would ever surprise me in a game involving the Colts against KC.
LAR-NYG: If Puka Nacua doesn’t suit up, I think you have real concerns here as Davante Adams might be washed at this point. Not a WR1 anymore. Then on defense, at least Aaron Donald is back, but what is he after two years away? Then no Myles Garrett (knee). The Giants moved the ball so efficiently last week while the Rams looked toothless on defense and totally lifeless on offense. John Harbaugh as a big underdog? I can dig it. Might end up regretting the pick, but I called the Falcons upsetting the Rams on MNF late last season. I’m not sure Dart can get his first NFL game-winning drive, but this would be a nice spot for it.
The 2026 NFL season got off to an underwhelming start on Wednesday and Thursday, and I’m already sweating my Super Bowl pick of Rams over Bengals. But there is something bittersweet about watching Drake Maye and Matthew Stafford struggle to score points in their openers after they were the MVP race (by default) last year.
Speaking of awards, I’m going to drop my final picks below after the Week 1 picks. I’m usually late like this, but it’s not like I planned on picking anyone from the first two games for any of the awards this year anyway.
The NFL Kickoff Blues (NE vs. SEA, SF vs. LAR Recap)
Either defenses are way ahead of the offenses right now, or this act of not playing anyone in the preseason any snaps might finally be biting teams like the Rams in the ass. Sure, the travel was significant for the Rams and they’ll always talk about that for the Australia game. Stafford having his least effective outing as a Ram and Myles Garrett producing zero pressures while looking winded would certainly qualify for weird outlier unlikely to ever repeat itself.
But there were other questionable coaching things like how they used their new corners in coverage, and Davante Adams got one snap near the end zone after dominating in that area last year. Do the Rams think he’s washed? Very curious moves all around. Aaron Donald also didn’t play, so the supposed “super team” was far from top shape. After losing six games by a combined 21 points last year, the Rams got their asses kicked by 20 points in Week 1.
Meanwhile, hats off to the 49ers. Mike Evans looks ready to perform the deluxe Jauan Jennings route, making key catches on third down and providing a good-sized target in the end zone for Brock Purdy. George Kittle didn’t look too slow after the Achilles. They oddly limited CMC’s touches early, though it helped him break some nice runs in a good second half. Deebo looks good and they clearly understand better how to use him than the Commanders did. I kind of forgot about Deebo going back to be honest. That helps for the Pearsall injury and then their new rookie (Stribling) also got injured. But Fred Warner was awesome at linebacker in his return, and I possibly undersold this veteran team with just 9 wins. But it is a long season, and they have had McVay’s number over the years.
Shanahan vs. McVay
Shanahan leads 12-8 (12-8 ATS)
Shanahan is 8-5 SU as an underdog (10-3 ATS)
McVay is 3-3 SU as an underdog
But would you trust McVay to beat SF as a 9-pt dog like Shanahan did last year with Mac Jones? Nope.
As for the first game, what have I been saying about Drake Maye? Terrible in crunch time, doesn’t handle good defenses well, and I wasn’t sure swapping Stefon Diggs and Kayshon Boutte for A.J. Brown and Romeo Doubs was going to have a huge impact on him because of how well the other two played with him last year.
Sure enough, Brown gets injured and will miss 4-6 weeks. Doubs was horrible with a fourth-quarter drop that I honestly think could be a worse drop for Maye than any drop by a receiver in Tom Brady’s 20-year career with the Patriots. It was that bad and it led to another bad interception, though he saved the worst one for last with the game on the line with a game-tying FG in his back pocket. Just an inexcusable decision and throw.
Meanwhile, Drew Lock led the only fourth-quarter lead change in the last five NFL games after the Seahawks lost Sam Darnold on the opening drive. Damn. At least it doesn’t sound like more than a 1-2 week injury for Darnold.
But the Patriots are at a real risk of starting 1-3 or worse this month, playing several of the teams who beat them last year. I had them penciled in for 10-7 and the No. 7 seed, but you should absolutely be worried about Maye in crunch time as he’s now 1-8 at 4QC. And their insistence on running on early downs is what I believe is their way of protecting him from taking bad sacks or throwing bad picks cause he gets impatient and tries to play hero ball at times.
That’s why I didn’t rank him as a top 10 QB going into the season. I can only go by what we’ve seen, and he’s just not there yet.
But in watching two prime-time bores, does anyone else feel like the best part of the NFL regular season these days is that witching hour around 3:20-4:20 PM ET on Sunday? When you get that block of 8-10 games and there are several one-score games going at once and some dramatic things happen. That anymore is the highlight of the week most of the time if you ask me. These prime-time games almost seem purposely inept offensively for gambling reasons, and that’s soured me out on even trying to build parlays or collect game script data like I should be doing.
We’ll see if the overall trend in Week 1 is poor offense around the NFL, or if it’s just a case of Maye can’t figure out Seattle, the Seahawks lost their QB on drive 1, and the Rams and 49ers were sent to Australia for no good reason.
NFL 2026 Week 1 Picks
Couldn’t get a spread win on either game so far but here’s hoping for some better games this Sunday and Monday night.
BUF-HOU: Josh Allen is 0-4 as a starter in Houston in his career. It’s still Joe Brady’s offense vs. DeMeco Ryans’ defense, and while a C.J. Stroud disaster-class scares me on the other side of the ball, I think Houston can pull it off here.
CHI-CAR: Which team regresses harder in close games? I still think the Bears are clearly the better team and I trust Caleb more than Bryce Young.
CLE-JAX: I think the Browns have potential to be bottom 3 on both sides of the ball. I see Liam Coen getting his offense going early this season in Year 2, and I like the Jags by 9+ points.
ATL-PIT: The Steelers have to take advantage of a team going into Week 1 with a third-string QB and without its top pass-rushing duo. I think Aaron Rodgers plays well, and Mike McCarthy knows what Cooper Rush can and can’t do. Steelers by a TD or more.
NYJ-TEN: Robert Saleh revenge game. I think he puts the heat on Geno, and Cam Ward has a nice day to get a home win.
NO-DET: Saints could be a surprise team but I still like the Lions at home with that offense putting up enough to win by 7+.
BAL-IND: I see the Colts putting up a fight (Steichen has had success vs. BAL) but the Ravens redeem themselves with Tyler Loop providing a game-winning field goal to win by 3 points.
TB-CIN: Might not be a 50+ point shootout and probably shouldn’t be if the Bengals want to start thinking they’re moving in the right direction defensively. But I think they handle business here and start 1-0.
WAS-PHI: I see Jayden Daniels giving the Eagles a scare but the home team wins by 1-5.
GB-MIN: I like Kyler Murray’s debut game to be spoiled by the Pack with a close win.
MIA-LV: Nothing like matching up the two rookie coaches with the worst WR rooms in the NFL in Week 1. Brock Bowers out too. But I’m going to put some faith in Kirk Cousins over the unpredictability of Malik Willis and that new-look Miami team. Hell, the unpredictability might be a reason to pick Miami but let’s just go with the home team with the OC-turned-HC who won the Super Bowl.
ARI-LAC: I think Mike LaFleur’s Cardinals give the Chargers a scare in their first game without Jesse Minter as DC, but Herbert plays really well and they win by 1-9.
DAL-NYG: One of my key upsets this week, I like John Harbaugh to win his debut with the Giants with the defense leading the way after some dumb Dallas mistakes.
DEN-KC: Could be your classic Kansas City finish where the opponent covers but the Chiefs win by 1-2 points. But it sounds like Josh Simmons won’t play at left tackle, and I said after Super Bowl 59 that I am done picking the Chiefs in games where they face an elite pass rush without a starting LT. I think it’s absolutely malpractice to go into a season opener with an undrafted rookie LT with no real experience at the position to go up against Nik Bonitto in Mahomes’ first game back from a torn ACL. Broncos usually play KC tough anyway under Payton, so I think they can win this one while the Chiefs can do better in the upcoming games on the schedule.
NFL 2026 Season Award Predictions
My final picks for the 2026 NFL awards:
MVP: Justin Herbert
OPOY: Ja’Marr Chase
DPOY: Will Anderson Jr.
OROY: Carnell Tate
DROY: Rueben Bain Jr.
Comeback Player: Patrick Mahomes
Protector of the Year: Penei Sewell
Coach: Jesse Minter, Ravens
For MVP, I’ll just say Joe Burrow is my most-bet player and I really do believe he can win it. But after the way my final 2026 predictions played out with the Bengals getting a wild card and the Chargers winning the AFC West, and the way I like Ja’Marr Chase for OPOY, I think sanity would win out in that scenario and Herbert would get it when it’s perceived that the defense improving a lot is a reason for the Bengals to return to the playoffs. And the offense takes a step forward while the defense goes back a little for the Chargers.
But I’m sure there will be plenty of arguments for that to come, and hopefully my picks are in the conversation somewhere.
It’s that time of year for my final NFL predictions for the 2026 season. I got cut off only about a third of the way through my detailed team previews because of a budget cut on the site that let me write as many words as I wanted the last three years. That was an unexpected bummer.
Then I got sick in August, which further delayed things. So, I didn’t get a full look at all the teams I wanted to, but I feel ready for this season to start, and maybe instead of devoting so many hours a week to that kind of writing, I can work on my drive stats database I’ve been yearning to build for years.
Someday I may predict the right Super Bowl outcome, but I cannot imagine anyone had Seahawks (+6000) over Patriots (+8000) for 2025 based on those preseason odds. However, I will not include the Packers for the third year in a row.
For a more recent mini-preview (read: 4,000 words) of the 2026 season, I did just cover 10 burning questions, including whether the Seahawks can repeat, if the Rams can be the superteam that gets the job done in February, and if the Chiefs’ dynasty is over.
My theme for 2026 is we get to see if 2025 was a changing of the guard or a façade of one. I think it’s going to be the latter, and the oddsmakers seem to agree as none of the record seven new division winners are favored to repeat in the division in 2026.
Change and the NFL are pretty synonymous. You have 10 new head coaches and 21 new offensive coordinators in the league this year. Those are abnormally high numbers, so things could look quite different on that fact alone, especially when you’re swapping out some of the longest-tenured coaches in the league like Mike Tomlin, John Harbaugh, and Sean McDermott.
That’s why I think, and have predicted below, that we could probably see a record-tying seven new division winners. With that said, on with the predictions. I think you know which players have come and gone this year, so I’m going to stick more to specific predictions on what I think can happen with these teams this year.
One thing I’ve learned about doing this since 2011 is that you can get jaded over thinking you have a team figured out in the summer. Then by the time Week 7 comes, they’re playing a big game on the schedule where six of the players you thought were important are all injured, benched, or traded. That’s the reality of the NFL. It’d be incredible if you can turn off injuries, but they’re inevitable and unpredictable.
Granted, you can probably pencil in Josh Simmons, Christian Watson, and Christian McCaffrey for some ailments this year. But injuries remain the great equalizer.
NFL 2026 Predictions: Choose your fighter.
NFC WEST
1. Los Angeles Rams (14-3)
The other big theme this year is the Rams’ pursuit of a super team to end the streak where teams with +500 preseason Super Bowl odds or better are 0-for-20 at winning the Super Bowl since 1996.
This team probably should have gone the distance last year, but they blew the No. 1 seed by blowing leads of 16 and 19 to the Eagles and Seahawks, and they underperformed as a big favorite in losses to the Panthers, Falcons, and 49ers with Mac Jones. The secondary was an issue, but they addressed that by adding two corners from the Chiefs. Okay, don’t love that idea, but making the pass rush better with Myles Garrett and Aaron Donald is the real key here. If Donald is 75% of what he was, that’s going to be something to watch.
The offense should still be great too, though I have some concerns if Davante Adams (old) gets injured again, or if Puka Nacua goes nuts off the field or gets disciplined by the league with some stuff out there that’s not great. But if everyone is healthy, they’re fine.
What can bring it all down? McVay’s weird conservatism in big spots, and of course special teams, which were terrible last year and cost them multiple games. You can be the best team in football and still watch your season burn because of an error on special teams. Watch the 1998 Vikings for proof of that.
They’re not going to challenge 20-0 or the scoring record. But I think they make amends for last year’s losses and get wins over the Eagles and Seahawks this year to make up the difference for the record they should have had in 2025.
2. Seattle Seahawks (13-4)
Repeating is hard because you usually have to do it a different way, and I don’t think the Seahawks have elevated their roster the way the 2004 Patriots did by adding Corey Dillon at running back. In fact, the Seahawks lost their Super Bowl MVP back and replaced him with a rookie while also losing their offensive coordinator.
But I do want to see if Sam Darnold has a post-1986 Phil Simms or post-2007 Eli Manning type of bump in efficiency and confidence now that he’s a champion who made it through a playoff run with no turnovers. I think JSN is less lethal this year, but they can open things up more by getting Rashid Shaheed better involved as a deep threat. They seemed to only understand how to use him on special teams after that trade was made midseason.
Defense should still be top tier but maybe not No. 1 in scoring again as I do trust Macdonald there, and the core is still young and growing. I think of all the teams that took a considerable leap last year, Seattle regresses the least, but I don’t see another fluke 2PC to beat the Rams in December, so I think the Rams take care of business in those late games and that provides the final push to win the NFC West for LA.
I originally had Seattle at 12-5 and added a win somewhere.
3. San Francisco 49ers (9-8)
Can you really bet on Kyle Shanahan in an even-numbered year when you look at 2018, 2020, and 2024? Even in 2022, they started 3-4 and were bailed out by the CMC trade and Brock Purdy surprisingly being good for a Mr. Irrelevant rookie. But it just seems like every other year this team falls off a cliff, and mass injury has been a culprit.
Flash forward to today, and you no longer have Jauan Jennings or Brandon Aiyuk at WR. Ricky Pearsall is injured and out. They brought in Mike Evans, coming off his worst season (injured already too). George Kittle is coming off a playoff Achilles injury, so I expect him to be worse this year. CMC already struggled to hit big plays last year but made it through that huge workload they gave him. I have fears he won’t survive this whole season. The defense is getting Fred Warner and Nick Bosa back, but lost Saleh as coordinator again. Still don’t love the secondary.
I think 9-8 is a fair compromise between not completely falling apart but still not returning to the playoffs. The schedule has enough easy games to get to a winning record, and I’ve always been pro-Purdy, but this goofy offseason with the injuries and the owner seeking $160 bareback sex in an Ohio trailer park, combined with Shanahan’s mysterious car accident they tried to cover up just reeks of a cursed team that shouldn’t experience any postseason glory.
4. Arizona Cardinals (4-13)
A money-laundering operation to boost stats for Trey McBride and Michael Wilson. That’s how you could describe the 2025 Cardinals once Jacoby Brissett took over, and maybe that’s how they play in 2026 too. I will note Matt LaFleur’s team moved the ball really well in the preseason and they added Jeremiah Love to the backfield, so if he somehow pulled off a good record in a brutal division, he should probably be Coach of the Year.
But I just don’t see Brissett and that defense leading to many wins for this team against this schedule.
AFC WEST
1. Los Angeles Chargers (11-6)
Yeah, while the Chiefs and Broncos fans are in a pissing match going into Week 1, I think the Chargers sneak out of this one with their first division title since 2009. It’s the same 11-6 record as the last two years, but I’m accounting for two things:
1. Some defensive regression after losing Jesse Minter to the Ravens.
2. In 2024, Ladd McConkey was Justin Herbert’s only good receiver. In 2025, the receivers played better, but the offensive tackles were injured. What if 2026 is the year the receivers are deeper and the OTs are healthy? With Mike McDaniel taking over as OC, you could see more big plays and unleashing Herbert’s arm in ways Greg Roman wouldn’t, so his best season (MVP?) is absolutely on the table here.
Of course, it’s the NFL, so even if those offensive players stay healthy, the defense could be a mash unit that falls to the bottom third of the league. But I trust Jim Harbaugh, and I think OC is the job McDaniel was made for. Not a head coach. I think it works out for them and they sneak past the Chiefs and Broncos to win the AFC West.
I know everyone is pointing to the brutal schedule in Weeks 3-10 but I think the soft beginning and end can be capitalized on, and they’ll win some of those tough games in the middle too. Does it finally lead to a playoff win? Well, find out at the bottom.
2. Kansas City Chiefs (10-7)
I didn’t get a chance to write the article “Why did the Chiefs miss the playoffs?” that was going to have a lot of detailed stats and comparisons between 2018-25. However, I think pointing out these five plays is a pretty telling summary:
Travis Kelce wipes out Xavier Worthy on the first pass play of the season in Brazil and tears his labrum.
Kelce turns a go-ahead touchdown pass in the fourth quarter into a red zone interception vs. Eagles.
Trevor Lawrence falls on the ground after the snap and still gets up and runs for a game-winning touchdown.
Kelce turns a 20-yard catch in the fourth quarter against Houston into a game-sealing interception.
Mahomes scrambles out of the pocket with two third-string tackles on the field and tears his ACL while trying to throw a pass away.
Anything that could go wrong did go wrong for the Chiefs last year. Even opposing kickers made 31-of-32 field goals (96.9%) while Harrison Butker missed nine field goals or extra points.
The Chiefs have been declining on third down for the last four years, but 2025 was rock bottom with the offense slipping to No. 22 and the defense to No. 29, creating the first negative conversion differential in the Mahomes era.
I recently wrote about the Chiefs’ struggles to find Phase III weapons for Mahomes when they’re still relying on his Phase I tight end, who has one foot in retirement. Rashee Rice is not trustworthy at all, we don’t know if Xavier Worthy is actually good at this league yet, and you can’t even rely on left tackle Josh Simmons to be there so far in his career.
It’s not a pretty picture in Kansas City as you see the effects of poor cap management and drafting catching up with this roster. With that said, they’re still a prime candidate for positive regression after going 1-10 in close games last year with four blown leads against a tough schedule. The Chiefs were rarely down by double digits in 2025. They just were one of the least clutch teams you’ll ever see, a total departure from 2024 when they were 12-0 in such games.
That’s why I think even if opening night against Denver is bad, they can beat up on the weak teams they rarely got to see (and still smoked with Mahomes) last year, and that should be enough to get to 10-7.
But I think when they play the Seahawks and Rams, you are going to see why this team’s absolute best-case scenario is getting smacked in the Super Bowl by one of those teams. That’s why they need to go back to the drawing board for 2027 as they’re not ready to get back to the top of the league.
3. Denver Broncos (9-8)
Including the playoffs, Denver was 8-2 at game-winning drive opportunities, which ties the single-season record for most GWDs (8). But that makes them ripe for regression this year, and the way they returned basically the same roster plus Jaylen Waddle (No. 2 on a meaningless stat team with constant nagging injuries) just makes me think we will see similar results, except those 13-11 and 10-7 wins over the Jets and Raiders suddenly become losses against better competition as the West divisions play each other.
They’re too good to totally fall apart, but what an early schedule with Chiefs, Jaguars, Rams, 49ers, Chargers, and Seahawks. Phew.
I’m still not sure what to make of Bo Nix. He seems to be elite at avoiding sacks. Sean Payton can put the ball in his hands a ton and win games, but they’re still mostly low-scoring games where he comes back at the end with a great drive or two. His efficiency is not up to par yet.
Also, this YPA stat for Nix is one of the weirdest splits I’ve ever seen:
Bo Nix:
• 9-0 with YPA above 7.5 • 1-9 with YPA between 6.51-7.49 • 15-2 with YPA of 6.5 or lower
But I think it’s your classic case of a team taking a step back after a run of close wins to get a No. 1 seed no one saw coming. I also am not a big fan of that Jason Licht-type strategy of bringing the whole band back together plus one addition of a wideout I think is not a championship-caliber player in Waddle.
4. Las Vegas Raiders (3-14)
I predict rookie Fernando Mendoza takes over for Kirk Cousins before Halloween. Maybe even before Columbus Day or whatever the fvck they call it these days. I just don’t see much going for an offense with a quarterback who can’t move and a bottom two wide receiver corps. There’s only so many plays you can design for Ashton Jeanty (already injured) and tight end Brock Bowers.
But I’ll be curious to see what Mendoza can do in a Kubiak offense. They’re just not ready to win games this year, and I think they end up taking Jeremiah Smith (Ohio State) in the 2027 draft.
NFC NORTH
1. Green Bay Packers (11-6)
I guess I can’t quit picking the Packers as the Five-Year Rule creeps into Year 4 for Jordan Love and Matt LaFleur. For a brief moment, they looked like the best team in the NFL last year, then they lost two key difference makers (Tucker Kraft and Micah Parsons) to ACL tears and never won another game.
My thought is what if Kraft and Parsons are back in time for the most important games? What if losing WR depth like Romeo Doubs and Dontayvion Wicks actually helps Matthew Golden, Jayden Reed, and Christian Watson play better in better defined roles for Love? Josh Jacobs is a piece of shit, allegedly, but I don’t think that makes or break their season.
I still like what the Packers are selling here in what should be a hotly contested race.
2. Detroit Lions (10-7)
An easier schedule and a healthy return of Sam LaPorta should help the Lions get back to the playoffs. But while I think losing David Montgomery makes it more likely Jahmyr Gibbs can win OPOY, I think it hurts their depth and keeping him fresh. I’m also curious to see how moving Penei Sewell to the left pans out.
Defense, it’s still on Aidan Hutchinson to deliver a great season. Don’t expect greatness from that unit but good enough to win 10 games. Just think Green Bay has more going for it to get the head-to-head win at Lambeau in Week 18 to win the division. Possible SNF Game 272 right there.
3. Chicago Bears (10-7)
Another regression candidate after the Bears won a record 7 games after trailing after the 2-minute warning in 2025. But my thought process is what if Caleb Williams improves in his second year of Ben Johnson’s system and the second year for Colston Loveland and Luther Burden in this league? What if losing D.J. Moore makes Williams realize Burden is the real deal and can be the Amon-Ra St. Brown in this offense? His numbers throwing to him are way better than two years of throwing to Rome Odunze.
Sure, the close wins and leading the league in turnover differential make the Bears a prime candidate for regression and a bad record. But keep in mind the Bears were only 7-6 at GWD opportunities including the playoffs. That’s a great record in the context of league average, but it’s not screaming they have to regress to 1-10 or the ridiculousness the 2025 Chiefs went through after 2024. They still lost a lot of close ones, including the 49ers late in the year and the Rams’ playoff game even after that miracle Hail Mary.
Safety Dillon Thieneman was one of my favorite picks in the first round of the draft. I trust Johnson and Williams enough to figure this out to get to 10 wins. We’ll see where that lands for the playoffs though.
4. Minnesota Vikings (9-8)
I do see the NFC North producing four teams with a winning record for the second year in a row, which would join the 1935 West, 2023 AFC North, and 2025 NFC North as the only four divisions in history to do that.
Could we see the Vikings win the division? Sure, if Kevin O’Connell can go 13-4 and 14-3 in his first years with Kirk Cousins (2022) and Sam Darnold (2024), then going 12-5 or better with Kyler Murray is possible. Especially when you’re giving Murray the best receiving corps and defense of his career.
But Murray has bugged me for years in that I think he’s totally content with who he is and doesn’t strive for greatness. That’s why there was such little progress in seven years in Arizona. So, in a tough division, I think 9-8 is fair enough but do see the potential for more.
I also think that makes Murray a great value candidate for Comeback Player of the Year at +650 odds as some in the media seem determined to downplay Mahomes (+150), the favorite. If Murray has a glow-up year, he likely wins it.
AFC NORTH
1. Baltimore Ravens (13-4)
My first run through had the Ravens finishing 15-2, then I realized that’s too many wins for a rookie coach. But I think Lamar Jackson stays healthy, they blow fewer leads (Chargers only blew two under Jesse Minter in 2024-25), and Derrick Henry still has another fantastic season in him minus the fourth-quarter fumbles. The kicker hopefully doesn’t blow it this time too.
But I am curious to see if new offensive coordinator Declan Doyle asks Jackson to throw the ball more often this year. Get Zay Flowers more targets. More Mark Andrews with Likely gone. More short, quick throws.
I like the addition of Trey Hendrickson as a big-time edge rusher they’ve been lacking the last few years. I think the new interior offensive line will be fine. Don’t love the wideout depth but maybe one of those rookies (Ja’Kobi Lane?) will be a big positive.
Just very curious to see what this team looks like without Harbaugh after all those years.
2. Cincinnati Bengals (11-6)
They returned basically the entire offense minus Noah Fant (no biggie), so it should be business as usual there. Joe Burrow just has to stay healthy (redundant). The focus should be on the defense, which added four new starters. Dexter Lawrence is exactly the kind of player I’d say is overvalued and won’t have an impact worth the No. 10 pick, but we’ll see what he does.
The Bengals could be the 2025 Patriots this year. That team was favored to win 11 games when the schedule came out, and the 2026 Bengals were favored to win 15. It doesn’t look like that easy of a schedule, but you never know when those games against the Steelers turn into playing rookie Drew Allar with Germie Bernard as his No. 1 receiver instead of Aaron Rodgers and a full arsenal.
Zac Taylor should be coaching for his job here. He can’t miss the playoffs for a fourth year in a row. I still think Baltimore is better and will win the division, but I like the schedule and defensive additions enough to trust the Bengals one more time for 11-6.
The only question is would a wild card with the defense clearly being the improved unit be enough for voters to give Joe Burrow his DEI MVP even if his numbers are a step below 2024? As long as Dan Orlovsky is one of those voters, I think we know the answer to that. That’s why Burrow is my most-bet player for MVP.
3. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7)
They finally got rid of Mike Tomlin after nine seasons without a playoff win. However, my ambition to make this a year where the Steelers improve to win 11-12 games (and maybe a playoff game) or implode with their worst record since 2003 didn’t come true. I just couldn’t do it. I like the roster too much but still not enough to go big in a loaded division, so 10-7 and fighting for the last wild card it is.
I think Aaron Rodgers plays better than he did last year now that he’s in a familiar offense with more than one good wideout. Let’s not forget McCarthy won 12 games in three years in a row with Dak in Dallas. He’s not a bad coach at all. Just not sure he’s got the goods to squeeze more out of this team than the typical 9-10 wins, no playoff win that Tomlin mastered the last decade.
But I think they’ll play hard for Rodgers in his final season and at least be entertaining to watch.
4. Cleveland Browns (3-14)
Woof, I think you’re going to see why you don’t hire a 60-year-old rookie coach in the NFL. It’s not all Todd Monken’s fault as he inherits an abysmal quarterback situation you can’t win from, and they traded Myles Garrett and lost Jim Schwartz. Real potential for a team that ranks 30th or worse on both sides of the ball here.
The only bright spots I see: Harold Fannin Jr. should catch 90+ balls and Jared Verse will have the quietest 8-to-10 sack season you’ll ever see.
Maybe they can get Arch Manning and a new coach in 2027.
NFC EAST
1. Philadelphia Eagles (10-7)
It might sound crazy but I think Jalen Hurts plays better without A.J. Brown this year. It happened in Detroit in 2016 after Calvin Johnson retired. Matthew Stafford had a better year, because you no longer have to worry about feeding someone his targets. Just throw to the open man, and in Hurts’ case, his success seems tied to who his offensive coordinator is, and they should be better in that area this year, which also bodes well for Saquon Barkley, who had a down year too.
But I think Makai Lemon and Wicks can help ease the loss of Brown, and it’s a career-year opportunity for DeVonta Smith as the new No. 1. They still have a really good line and defense too. Winnable division. In fact, they were the only team to repeat as division champion in 2025 (first time for the NFC East since 2004), and they’re the only one to be favored to repeat in 2026.
I could see a step back and no longer in real Super Bowl contention, but I think they still have enough to win the NFC East.
2. Dallas Cowboys (9-8)
A lot of new pieces on defense, including rookie safety Caleb Downs, could mean a quick turnaround after 2025’s expectedly poor job after trading Micah Parsons right before the season. If they click, then the offense should still be good (injuries worry me as the receiving corps isn’t great if you take away Pickens or Lamb), so you could see a return to the playoffs if they can sweep the Eagles.
But I think I’ve just grown bored with the Dak era, which is a repackaging of the Romo era at this point. So I don’t set very high expectations at all for Dallas anymore.
3. Washington Commanders (8-9)
I want to believe in Jayden Daniels as an MVP-caliber quarterback but 2025 gives you pause. Granted, he lost a lot of weapons to injuries, he was injured multiple times, and the defense still stunk. But they’ve turned over much of the defense, and Stefon Diggs should be a high-catch rate target for him to go with Terry McLaurin.
Sneaky potential to get back on the winning side of things if Daniels can play like he did as a rookie, and if Dan Quinn coaches like he thinks he’s getting fired if they’re not good. But I’m skeptical they’re going to have a winning season.
4. New York Giants (7-10)
You’ll see me repeat this two more times about the Saints and Titans, but one of the easiest picks for a new playoff team is matching up a second-year quarterback with a better coach after that quarterback didn’t have a great rookie year.
The Giants apply, and John Harbaugh was a good hire in a new situation where he can help change the culture. Plenty of pieces on defense for him, though I wish they drafted Caleb Downs or Sonny Styles instead of Arvell Reese, who didn’t force a single takeaway in college. Very skeptical of that top 10 pick.
But my biggest problem is the fit here. What bothered Harbaugh the last few years in Baltimore? Blowing leads and his quarterback out with injuries. What hurt the Giants in 2025? Blowing leads and his quarterback (Jaxson Dart) has a fetish for visiting the blue medical tent on an almost weekly basis.
The Giants get their injured weapons back, but can we trust Cam Skattebo to stay healthy? Malik Nabers to show no ill effects from a torn ACL? Dart to protect himself? He moved the ball well at times last year, but he didn’t really seize the moment in the close games they played, and the Giants were awful at closing games. Not exactly Harbaugh’s specialty in the 2020s.
It wouldn’t surprise me if it worked out, but I just can’t get behind them yet until I see Dart showing consistency and avoiding the injury report.
AFC EAST
1. Buffalo Bills (13-4)
I’m not a fan of promoting a coach who was part of the problem for why you didn’t get to the Super Bowl the last few years. But Joe Brady gets the job, meaning the offense should be consistent, which isn’t a bad thing given the results. Maybe adding D.J. Moore, who worked with Brady in Carolina, will help get them back to throwing outside the numbers and down the field more like when they had Stefon Diggs. Still want to see Dalton Kincaid stay healthy and play more snaps too.
But the biggest changes in replacing Sean McDermott come on defense with Jim Leonhard taking over as first-time coordinator. He was in Denver the last few years, though he had his most success as a player in Rex Ryan’s blitz-heavy systems, so I think he could bring a more volatile mix to the Bills.
Adding Bradley Chubb wasn’t one of those big moves like trying to get Myles Garrett, Maxx Crosby, or even Trey Hendrickson, but it could be better than Joey Bosa last year. Still, in another year where the Chiefs may not be in their way in January, we need to make sure the Bills can still get past teams like the Ravens, Bengals, and Broncos in January before we pencil them in for that elusive Super Bowl.
For that matter, they have to make sure they take the division back from the Patriots first, who only needed two seasons to get to the Super Bowl with Drake Maye. If the Bills fall flat again offensively in Houston in Week 1 like the last two seasons, it’ll be hard to take them seriously as a team that’s going to be demonstrably different in 2026.
The fear when you simply make an in-house promotion. At least they went outside for defensive vision.
2. New England Patriots (10-7)
Schedule merchants or serious contenders? We’ll find out in 2026 as the Patriots have to play the Seahawks, Steelers, Jaguars, Bills, and that’s just the first four weeks that include 3-of-4 teams they lost to last year. They also have to play the Bears, Packers, Lions, Chargers, Bills again, Chiefs, and Denver (hopefully with Bo Nix this time). Won’t be talking about an easy schedule this time.
Does replacing Stefon Diggs and Kayshon Boutte with A.J. Brown and Romeo Doubs help? Yeah, I think it does, which is why Drake Maye could actually have a better season than he did in 2025 against a tougher schedule, but he’ll get denied MVP love because the record won’t be as good. Funny how that works.
Also, I’d throw some cold water on thinking the receivers are a huge upgrade as he had a very efficient connection with Diggs, who caught 83.3% of his targets last year, a career year for someone who is over 70% for his career. A.J. Brown is more like a 64% receiver with no seasons above 70%. He wants more targets down the field, and he’s had success before under coach Vrabel in Tennessee, though that wasn’t a Josh McDaniels offense.
If Brown is properly motivated after what happened in Philly in 2025, I could see it being a really good fit. It’s not 2004 Terrell Owens or 2007 Randy Moss, but it could be nice. I just think people are overlooking how well Diggs played with Maye, and Boutte made some deep catches that Doubs may not necessarily get.
But it looks like a more talented offense this year, and you figure more touches for Kyle Williams and TreVeyon Henderson. The offensive line has to be better of course, and Maye has to get the ball out faster against better defenses. I’m still not sold he can get it done at a high level against top defenses, or that his game isn’t linked to well-timed deep shots schemed up by McDaniels.
But we’ll see where things go after that Super Bowl loss. If they start off poorly, that locker room might be looking funny at Vrabel’s message after his affair with Dianna Russini was exposed this offseason.
No Coach of the Year award for him this year.
3. New York Jets (5-12)
You hire Geno Smith to help you to a No. 1 pick in the draft like he did for the Raiders last year, then he goes out there and wins a few games with better weapons and positive regression on defense that actually produces some interceptions after 0 in 17 games last year.
I think the Jets are going to stink, but I also think they’ll win enough games against that schedule to take themselves out of the No. 1 pick. Go figure.
4. Miami Dolphins (3-14)
How many times am I going to do this with Miami? I pick them to win a few games, then they turn in the most meaningless 7-win season you’ll ever see. Still haven’t won a playoff game since the 2000 season and that’s not changing this year.
I’m intrigued by Malik Willis based on how he looked in Green Bay, but it’s malpractice to put him in an offense with Malik Washington, Jalen Tolbert, and some third-round rookies like Chris Bell and Caleb Douglas as his wide receivers. Worst group in the league. Either them or Las Vegas.
I don’t think the defense is anything special either, so it’ll be hard to get a fair read on Willis this season. But at least it’s not another year of Tua Tagovailoa.
NFC SOUTH
1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-8)
I actually think Baker Mayfield getting paid this week takes some of the chip off his shoulder this season, because I thought he’d ball out after betting on himself and getting that $60M+ AAV extension after the season. That’s not to say he’s going to slack off now, but I think you had a bigger edge without paying him before Week 1.
Still, I think a healthy Mayfield with Emeka Egbuka replacing Mike Evans as the full-time WR1 and a healthier Godwin/McMillan should lead to a fine season for the offense. I think Rueben Bain Jr. proves he should have been a top 10 pick and wins Defensive Rookie of the Year with 9+ sacks to help the defense.
I’ll still trust the Bucs to win the NFC South again. I wanted to pick someone else but just couldn’t do it. Bowles is coaching for his job and they get it done.
2. New Orleans Saints (6-11)
Another team I wanted to pump up as a surprise playoff team but just couldn’t justify it in the end. Tyler Shough did good things last year, though he did it against all teams without a winning record. What happens this year when he plays good teams? They drafted Jordyn Tyson, but living up to the worst fears pre-draft, he’s already injured.
Don’t love the rest of the skill players after Olave, don’t love the defense either. I’ll understand it if this works out, but this working out is likely Shough continuing to win some close games and the Saints squeezing out a 9-8 division title in the league’s weakest division.
3. Carolina Panthers (5-12)
They were in a home playoff game and leading the Rams late last year, but I think it’s smoke and mirrors. Close-game regression finally comes for Bryce Young, who still hasn’t had a true breakout year. More than that, you’re looking at a team that’s banged up in the trenches with multiple injuries to the offensive line before Week 1, they lost Rico Dowdle, and they lost Nic Scourton on a defense that still wasn’t anything special.
Easiest pick this year for a team to regress and miss the playoffs after making it last year. And I don’t know what you do with Bryce Young’s contract. I guess draft his replacement and bring him back for a fifth season after it hopefully lights a fire under him a la short king Drew Brees when the Chargers drafted Philip Rivers in 2004.
4. Atlanta Falcons (4-13)
I like Kevin Stefanski, but Tua going to the Falcons probably turns Atlanta into the NFC’s Mami. That mean starting 1-5 before stumbling to the most meaningless 6-7 win season you’ll ever see. Sure, Tua might get some gaudy completion percentage stats in an offense with these great weapons, but he’s never beating the good teams and doing anything relevant in the playoffs.
Michael Penix Jr. needs to play this year to see what they have there. We haven’t seen enough yet. Then on defense, you lose James Pearce Jr. to suspension and Jalon Walker for a while to injury. They were supposed to lead your pass rush. Not ideal.
But at least Bijan Robinson and Drake London will put up some numbers for Stefanski.
AFC SOUTH
1. Houston Texans (10-7)
The defense should still be great for DeMeco Ryans. This is really on C.J. Stroud to step up and earn that big extension. He played his best in his rookie year, he’s had awful luck with the health of his receivers, but he still has Nico Collins and Dalton Schultz. Drake Maye was able to get some valuable catches out of Kayshon Boutte last year. They added David Montgomery at running back and a few new offensive linemen starters.
What happened to the Stroud who was elevating his teammates in 2023? We need to see that return, and with the same offensive coordinator (Nick Caley) in town, I’m not sure it’s that different.
But I’m still banking on that defense to lead the way to 10 wins and the division title.
2. Jacksonville Jaguars (9-8)
Another team that went from 4-13 to 13-4 last year, I think the Jaguars take a step back in a division that should be stronger. They piled up five wins late in the year between sweeping the Titans, Colts (Daniel Jones injured) and annihilating the Jets. I still can’t get over the mistakes the Chiefs made in that loss on MNF that gave some early legitimacy to the Jaguars’ season.
But I see a team with unsettled skill positions, lost Etienne at RB, not sure what Travis Hunter is yet on either side of the ball, and I still don’t think Trevor Lawrence is ever going to ascend to elite status even though I guess it’s possible he picks it up in Year 2 of Liam Coen’s system.
But much like how they went from winning a playoff game to missing the playoffs in Year 2 of Doug Pederson in 2023, I think this team finishes 9-8 and second place at best in the AFC South.
3. Indianapolis Colts (8-9)
Was the first half of 2025 just a mirage when Daniel Jones was leading one of the most efficient offenses in NFL history? Was that their only shot after they swapped Michael Pittman Jr. for another veteran possession receiver in Keenan Allen while Jones is expectedly slower after rupturing his Achilles? Not to mention another year of tread on the tire for Jonathan Taylor.
But while I’m skeptical of the Colts, I will say I think tight end Tyler Warren has All-Pro potential this year. If you’re not sold on Alec Pierce as WR1 and think Jones will want to dump the ball off quicker this season post-injury, then using Warren in really inventive ways could be a way forward in this offense.
Defensively, I’m just not seeing the names that stand out like you get with the other AFC South teams above them. Shane Steichen should have asked Dolly Parton to record “9 to 8” for him as that seems to be the only win totals he knows, and I’m not going to pivot from that in 2026.
4. Tennessee Titans (6-11)
I like the idea of Robert Saleh and Brian Daboll (OC) getting another chance elsewhere in the NFL. I like giving Cam Ward a WR1 in Carnell Tate in the draft. I don’t necessarily like the money spent on random defenders, but hopefully Saleh will show his expertise there in getting better play.
Sure, a second-year quarterback with better coaching in a winnable division should be an easy pick for a breakout team. But I’m just not feeling this roster yet, and I think Ward might be the first Gen Z quarterback who could go down as a bust, but he’ll get on a podcast weekly and take accountability for it. “Yeah, I fucking sucked, no cap.” Just listen to some of his pressers from the last year if you don’t know what I’m talking about.
That’s cool when you’re a rookie, but let’s make sure we see some progress in Year 2 when you’re not playing a ridiculous schedule like he did last year. I’ll understand this one too if it hits as a winner, but I don’t trust it yet.
Most starts against 12-win teams in a QB's first 17 career starts
1. Cam Ward – 9 2. Cooper Rush – 7 3. Tony Banks/Kellen Clemens/Kevin Kolb/Akili Smith – 6
Everyone wins 3-to-14 games in my vision of the 2026 season. The playoffs came down to tiebreakers in both conferences.
AFC
1. Buffalo (13-4)
2. Baltimore (13-4)
3. LA Chargers (11-6)
4. Houston (10-7)
5. Cincinnati (11-6)
6. Kansas City (10-7)
7. New England (10-7)
On the last day of the season, the Steelers can either be the No. 5 seed or miss the playoffs altogether. The Ravens, even without an incentive to let the starters finish the game with the No. 2 seed locked up, end up getting their revenge for 2025 and eliminate Aaron Rodgers in his final game.
In the AFC playoffs, the Ravens eliminate New England in the 7-2 matchup. Then the big one, Justin Herbert works out his playoff demons and shreds the Chiefs to win his first playoff game. The Bengals take care of Houston after another bad outing for Stroud.
Like in the 2022 season, the Bengals go into Buffalo and despite the Bills finally getting the No. 1 seed this year, they lose in the first playoff game in their new stadium as the Bengals force Allen into mistakes and Burrow outplays him.
No longer a Harbaugh Bowl, but Ravens-Chargers is a battle and the Chargers find a way on the road in that one too as Herbert is on his 2003 Peyton Manning type of run. But like Manning that year, it comes crashing down in flames in the AFC Championship Game as Herbert throws multiple picks to Burrow’s defense, and the Bengals advance to the Super Bowl.
With that said, I do love this script in the way it shows the Bills and Ravens can lead the conference now that they’ve moved on from their longtime coaches, though they still can’t get it done in January for the Super Bowl with rookie coaches. The Chargers finally win some playoff games with Herbert. The Patriots sneak in but lose immediately. The Chiefs are still there but have their worst playoff run of the Mahomes era with their weakest roster. The Bengals finally go on a run similar to 2021-22.
It feels right to me.
NFC
1. LA Rams (14-3)
2. Green Bay (11-6)
3. Philadelphia (10-7)
4. Tampa Bay (9-8)
5. Seattle (13-4)
6. Detroit (10-7)
7. Chicago (10-7)
We get another Round III between the Packers and Chicago, and this time, the Packers close and win. The Eagles frustrate Jared Goff once again and win that one in the snow. The Seahawks take care of business on a Monday night in Tampa Bay, the NFC South Invitational.
That sets up a third Rams-Seahawks game since Christmas. This time, the Rams force Darnold into a big turnover (or a Garrett sack) and win the game. The Packers defend home field against the Eagles for some 2024 revenge.
In the NFC Championship Game, Jordan Love plays well against that stacked defense, but Stafford and the Rams find a way to pull it out by a late FG to advance to the Super Bowl.
SUPER BOWL LXI
Yep, it’s a Super Bowl rematch form five years ago with the Rams hosting the Bengals at SoFi Stadium. Same result too. The Bengals are leading in the fourth quarter, Stafford works the ball down the field with Puka Nacua instead of Kupp this time, and they take a late lead that Burrow is unable to answer with Garrett and Donald both collapsing on him on pivotal plays to secure the victory.
The Rams end the drought for big preseason favorites after winning two games at SoFi by 3 points each to close the season. A familiar script for sure, but this is the decade of reboots and sequels, and this is a Los Angeles Super Bowl on Valentine’s Day.
What else would you expect? That is my vision for the 2026 season. Not a changing of the guard. Just a reshuffling to arrive at the same point as five years ago, then we can have a whole offseason to argue about the same things.
