Category: NFL Game Predictions

NFL Super Bowl LVII Preview: Chiefs vs. Eagles

~ scottkacsmar ~ Leave a comment

I guess I got one more Super Bowl preview left in me. This is the only place where I post my final score prediction, but it has been a long two weeks to get to this point. I don’t know how many times I wrote about the oddities of 42-30 from last year’s meeting, or why I love Jalen Hurts as a touchdown scorer who might even do it on The Philly Special II, or why the referees (Carl Cheffers) are worth betting on for a flag fest.

Seriously, play those penalty props wherever you can find them (over in total yards, over in Kansas City penalty yards):

But unlike the last round where I ended up changing both my picks from Sunday to Saturday to the Chiefs and Eagles winning, I have not moved on this game.

The Eagles should win Super Bowl LVII, but the Chiefs certainly can pull it off.

This is already the third Super Bowl for Patrick Mahomes, the two-time MVP, and once again he goes up against the best pass defense he could from the NFC. Argue all you want about the 49ers being a better overall defense than the Eagles, but Mahomes already shredded that unit in Week 7.

I feel like I’m just going to keep recycling my old Mahomes Super Bowl content for these matchups.

Teams like the Eagles usually beat teams like the Chiefs in the Super Bowl, but what if Mahomes is just different? I wrote that from scratch, but after checking, yep, I pretty much wrote this already about Super Bowl LIV against the 49ers:

There are a lot of areas that favor the 49ers, and I think historically the 49ers are the type of team more likely to win this game than a team like the Chiefs. There are just more ways for the 49ers to win while practically every positive outcome for Kansas City involves Mahomes playing really well. 

Defense wins championships. Football teams are built in the trenches. Hyped QB matchups usually disappoint in the Super Bowl. That’s what I’d write about Chiefs vs. Eagles, and that’s also probably what I wrote about Chiefs vs. Buccaneers two years ago in Super Bowl LV. Oh look, I did.

Defense wins championships. Football games are decided in the trenches. Overhyped quarterback matchups tend to disappoint.

This is why I really do see Super Bowl LVII as a game that will either be like Chiefs-49ers where Mahomes and the offense figure it out in the 4Q to win or at least make it a 3-4 point game/tight finish, or it is going to be another blowout like Chiefs-Buccaneers where the pass rush is all over the QB on the injured ankle and the secondary is all over the injured receivers and shut downs Travis Kelce again.

Tale as old as time, right?

I’ve said this year that the Eagles are a team that’s dying to blow a 14 or 17-point lead in the playoffs after a dominant first half. Maybe the offense goes into turtle mode. Maybe the famed QB push sneak they’ve perfected gets stopped on a key fourth-and-1 to give the Chiefs new life. Maybe Jalen Hurts just has another off game against a young defense has has showed some improvement down the stretch.

The problem I have in this game is that it really takes Philadelphia uncharacteristically screwing up (like a turnover party) for the Chiefs to probably win. Otherwise, it is going to have to be a Mahomes masterclass, and I’m just not sure the offense is healthy or talented enough for him to do that in this matchup. The Eagles holding Kelce to 23 yards and holding everyone not named Tyreek Hill (186 yards) under 25 yards last year bugs me, because they’ve only gotten better in the pass rush and secondary with the additions of Haason Reddick and James Bradberry. Not to mention AJ. Brown on offense, who crushed the Chiefs in the last time the Chiefs were blown out (27-3 against the Titans last year).

In fact, there is so much history on the line in this game, and that’s why I want to get to my links because I wrote about it all (multiple times) the last two weeks. I’ll obviously recap what did and did not happen in the final Stat Oddity of the season tomorrow night, but let’s get to all the Super Bowl links I feel like sharing.

My Super Bowl Content:

Final Super Bowl LVII Prediction

I would love nothing more than a high-scoring, close Super Bowl that is an instant classic. Maybe it’s a 27-24 game (or 37-34 if you saw the leaked script, wink wink nudge nudge). Hopefully we get an 18th Super Bowl in the last 20 that is within one score in the fourth quarter.

But a lot of times these Super Bowls disappoint. Just look at two of the last four years when we had 13-3 and 31-9, two games where a team didn’t even score a touchdown. This 2022 NFL season has been filled with disappointing and low-scoring island games. The playoffs have been very disappointing as the only game with a fourth-quarter lead change was Chargers-Jaguars, and even that happened on the final snap so we couldn’t see how the Chargers would answer.

We really need something great to end this season on a high note, and I just don’t see it here. I think the Eagles revert to the team they were during the 8-0 start, meaning a dominant second quarter before they settle in the range of 21-to-29 points, and I’ll give the Chiefs just enough points to look respectable after last time’s embarrassment of scoring 9. But even in that game they dropped two touchdown opportunities.

I just keep coming back to the difference in the trenches, the difference in health at the skill players, the depth of the Eagles, and the way they aren’t afraid to go for fourth downs. I can’t even trust the Chiefs to convert a third-and-1 this year, and I sure don’t expect them to QB sneak it on fourth-and-1. Throw in the Carl Cheffers, Chiefs nemesis, angle at referee, and the Chiefs might be getting the short end of the stick there too.

I think it will look closer to Chiefs-49ers than Chiefs-Buccaneers, because Hurts doesn’t have that LOAT edge like Tom Brady. But if Chad Henne plays a significant role in this game, I’ll immediately change my mind on that. But I think it’s closer to Chiefs-49ers, and maybe this time Mahomes just doesn’t have Hill to convert a third-and-15 to. The roster weakness they covered up so well all year ultimately comes back to bite them in the Super Bowl against the No. 1 pass defense after too many injuries sustained in the last two playoff games. That’d be a damn shame, but it’s what I see happening in this one.

Forgive me if I rushed through this preview and it’s not as neatly organized and in depth like they used to be for the Super Bowl, but when you’re writing for four sites for 13 days about this one game, you just want to get to kickoff tomorrow at 6:30. I’m wiped out.

I cannot promise a good game tomorrow night, but I can promise a worthy recap to put it in its rightful place in history. But let’s hope I’m wrong I’m on this one.

Final: Eagles 27, Chiefs 20 (Super Bowl MVP: Haason Reddick)

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NFL 2022 Divisional Round Predictions

~ scottkacsmar ~ Leave a comment

My favorite weekend of the NFL year is here. This historically has been the toughest week for road teams to win, because you used to have a pair of teams in each conference coming off a first-round bye. So when those upsets did happen, they are instantly memorable, and they almost can hurt worse than getting blown out in the Super Bowl does.

But with only one bye per conference now, maybe things aren’t what they used to be. Last season, the road teams were 13 seconds away from going 4-0 with each win by 3 points. The Bills screwed that up, but it led to a change in playoff overtime rules, and it was the best second round of all time. Hard to top that this weekend.

I think the schedule is amusing this weekend as you have both No. 1 seeds playing both longshots on Saturday. Not much is expected of the Jaguars and Giants, but you never known. Crazier things have happened in both franchise’s histories. The Jaguars winning would be akin to the 1996 team upsetting Denver in the divisional round. We know all about the Giants shocking the 2007 Cowboys (top seed) and 2011 Packers (15-1 team) in this round.

Then you get the two marquee matchups on Sunday. We finally get to see Bills vs. Bengals, and Cowboys-49ers is a classic NFC playoff matchup and a rematch from last year’s wild card round.

If I had to pick a Super Bowl matchup today, I’d probably still go Bills vs. 49ers.

But a team that turns the ball over that much and a team with a rookie quarterback are hard to trust this time of year. That’s just part of what makes this weekend so interesting.

If you are holding out hope for a Super Bowl rematch of Bills vs. Cowboys, here is an interesting stat I came across in research for this week. The Cowboys recently had a 9-game streak snapped of scoring at least 27 points. The Bills also did it earlier this year, though most of the games were carried over from 2021.

But such a streak has only lasted nine games 14 times in NFL history. If you look at the previous 12 cases before the Bills and Cowboys, all 12 of those teams advanced to at least a conference championship game in one of the seasons the streak took place. All but the 2018 Chiefs reached the Super Bowl or league championship game, and five of them won a ring.

Regardless of this table, I think Bills vs. Cowboys is very realistic if both can win this weekend.

Some articles I did this week:

NFL Divisional Round Predictions

After going over these games so many times this week, I am beyond ready to get this weekend going. Here are my final score predictions for each game:

Jacksonville Jaguars at Kansas City Chiefs (-9.5 at Bovada)

The Chiefs should win, but you have to be impressed with Doug Pederson starting his career 6-0 ATS as a playoff underdog. Even better is the 5-1 SU record. The Chiefs are not your typical 14-win team by any means. They join the 2001 Rams as the only 14-win teams with a minus-3 turnover differential. They’re also 32nd in touchdown passes allowed and 31st in red zone touchdown percentage on defense. But these kind of stats would mean more against a Cincinnati or Buffalo team that has had their number since last year.

I don’t think the Jaguars are ready for this yet, but I do think they have learned how to battle back and will make a game of it, even if it means dialing up trick plays or doing a surprise onside kick. Anything to steal a possession. I also have my eye on kicker Harrison Butker this postseason. Everyone is worried about Brett Maher in Dallas, but Butker could be a weak link for the Chiefs.

Also, can we get back to Travis Kelce scoring touchdowns and Jerick McKinnon not catching one every single week?

Final: Chiefs 30, Jaguars 23

New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles (-7.5 at Bovada)

I think between the NFC preview and upset articles linked above, I laid out a good case for why the Eagles peaked too early and have some strong warning signs for a No. 1 seed that loses the first playoff game at home. We’re still waiting for a signature win in the Jalen Hurts era, and while this will count, it’ll be interesting to see what happens next week no matter who wins the other game.

But I can’t go as far as to pick the Giants to win outright, because I do think the crap quality of the Vikings and Colts defense has played a big factor in the offensive success in recent weeks. The Eagles had 70 sacks this year and can defend these receivers with their healthy corners. A.J. Brown usually shows up for big games. Boston Scott is the Giant Killer as he is a ridiculous 8-for-8 at scoring touchdowns in games against them.

If the Giants had one of their better defensive units like 2016, I could totally buy this upset. But I don’t see it happening this week, but once again, I think it’s going to be close and the Giants are going to push them and leave them with little momentum going into next week.

Final: Eagles 24, Giants 17

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Buffalo Bills (-5.5)

In Week 17, I was on board with the Bills winning 27-24, and I see no reason to change my pick. I think the spread is a little high here, I think the Bengals have a right to be pissed this isn’t played on a neutral field as they were denied the chance to finish a game they led 7-3 and were driving for more that could have given them the No. 2 seed over Buffalo, and I think the Bills miss Von Miller in this matchup.

Imagine a talent like Von in this game against the team with three injured linemen. But I don’t think it’s going to be a Chiefs-Bucs Super Bowl type day for the Bengals. They’ll adjust and they’ll just have to compensate for sacks/pressures by getting turnovers from a Buffalo team that has 30 giveaways in 17 games, one of the worst teams this year at protecting the ball.

But I expect both quarterbacks to play well, and I am sticking to my preseason pick and Week 17 pick of Buffalo.

Final: Bills 27, Bengals 24

Dallas Cowboys vs. San Francisco 49ers (-3.5)

You see the Dallas upset link above, and the other upset article picks this game too, so not much surprise where I’m going with this one.

I wrote the Cowboys off for months, and some of it was just doing my part to reverse jinx Brady and the Buccaneers. Some of it was legitimate belief though that this team is too self destructive to win a playoff game. Now here I am backing the Cowboys on the road against a team that’s won 11 in a row with the top defense.

But I also think there’s a real paper tiger element to the 49ers’ season, and I can’t just ignore that they had the weakest schedule, went 0-1 against the only elite team they played, and Dallas is 3-1 against the other 12+ win teams this year. The Cowboys have an elite offense and defense with the most takeaways. The 49ers are 0-4 with multiple giveaways and 14-0 when they don’t do that this year. Pretty cut and dry.

If the Cowboys can make Brady look like he’s 50, then they need to make Brock Purdy look like the last pick in the draft and pick off some of these bad throws he got away with last week. And for Dak Prescott, it might be now or never. Go get this one.

And really, the 49ers almost blew a 23-7 fourth-quarter lead last year to Dallas in the wild card round. A game with Kyle Shanahan, Mike McCarthy, and Dan Quinn should have plenty of shenanigans going down. Hell, it’d be the story of the week if Brett Maher wins it on a long field goal. But I’d have multiple two-point conversion plays prepared for this one just in case.

I just wouldn’t have any QB draw in the god damn playbook this time.

Final: Cowboys 26, 49ers 23

Yes, I went against the grain and picked the underdog to cover in all four games. That hasn’t happened in the divisional round since the 2006 season, or that weekend where the Chargers intercepted Tom Brady on fourth down and fumbled the ball back to him. But it has happened before, and after a competitive regular season, mostly competitive wild card round, why not expect more of the same this weekend?

The only real gaps between these teams is that the Jaguars and Giants stick out like sore thumbs. But when it comes to the other six, you are likely just looking at who is going to make the big mistake, and who is going to make the play that lives in infamy for the highlight reels. It is going to take two or three coin-flip wins to get this championship. No one is good enough to run away with it anymore.

Enjoy the games.

NFL 2022 Wild Card Predictions

~ scottkacsmar ~ Leave a comment

It has already been a strange, competetive, mediocre season, so who knows how this postseason will go. My preseason pick was Buffalo beating Tampa Bay 45-17, and I’m really not shying away from that yet. It could definitely happen with the way this NFC is.

In lieu of my usual full-length playoff previews on this blog, I have links to similar full-length previews that I wrote:

This will still be the only place I post my final score predictions for each playoff game.

Some articles I did this week:

Seattle Seahawks vs. San Francisco 49ers (-10)

Preview: Seahawks-49ers

I just want to see if Seattle can score more than 13 points, which is how many points the offense has in eight quarters this year against this defense. I expect the 49ers to win, though Kyle Shanahan and a rookie quarterback is one hell of a playoff combo for classic Shanahanigans. But probably not this week as the Seahawks do not match up well with this team. But I expect it to be closer than the last meeting in SF, and to be the highest scoring game of the season between these teams.

By the way, the team going for the 3-0 split is 14-9, so it usually happens. 49ers didn’t pull it off last year against the Rams, but this is an easier opponent.

Final: 49ers 27, Seahawks 19

Los Angeles Chargers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (+2.5)

Brandon Staley really got Mike Williams hurt right before the playoffs, and the Chargers still lost to Denver. Frankly, I can’t understand why the Chargers are favored in this game, or why the spread has only gone up. They’re on a short week, they were bad last week, they lost Williams, they already lost 38-10 to this Jacksonville team, and they’re on the road here against a team that is statistically better by most metrics. Not a lot better, but better.

I can’t help but think Justin Herbert is going to feel the sting of a one-man show road playoff loss where he throws for over 300 yards, but gets nothing on the ground while the Jaguars crank up Travis Etienne against the defense that ranks No. 32 in yards per carry allowed.

I am concerned about the lack of points in the passing game in the last three weeks for Jacksonville, but we’ll see. This one should be close. Jacksonville’s last seven home games have all been decided by 1-to-7 points.

Final: Jaguars 27, Chargers 24

Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills (-13.5)

Rookie quarterbacks tend to stink in the playoffs as is, but Skylar Thompson is below average and probably replacement level. Mike McDaniel will have to cook up something amazing to keep this one close, or the Bills will have to have a bunch of turnovers. They were No. 3 in giveaways despite playing 16 games.

But the blowout of Miami by Buffalo that I’ve been waiting for since that Week 3 game should happen here. Just unfortunate it’s happening under the circumstances where the Dolphins don’t have their best QB or RB available for this game.

Final: Bills 34, Dolphins 13

New York Giants vs. Minnesota Vikings (-3)

Giants-Vikings

Be sure to read my previews on this game for all the good stats and records involving these teams who love playing close games. I can’t help but think the Giants are going to play well on offense and have a real shot to pull this one out. But I’ll cautoiusly pick the Vikings to win at home.

Final: Vikings 30, Giants 27

Baltimore Ravens vs. Cincinnati Bengals (-8.5)

Ravens-Bengals

I’m just a bit tired of seeing Baltimore (without Lamar Jackson) this season. This game should be better than the Week 18 crapfest these two just played, but I do not see the Ravens being able to score enough to win with Tyler Huntley. At the very least, their defense has been way better this year against Cincinnati, so I think the team is good enough to keep it close and cover.

Final: Bengals 24, Ravens 16

Dallas Cowboys vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+2.5)

Upset: Bucs over Cowboys

I’ve pretty much been saying since October after the Cowboys lost in Philadelphia that they would lose in the wild card round to the Buccaneers. With the way Week 1 happened and the way the Cowboys played in Washington and have been turning the ball over, I see no reason to change the pick now. If anything, they are just preparing to make sure they have a letdown here.

The team without a winning record who gets to host a playoff game is still 4-1 in those games. It’s an advantage the NFL needs to eliminate. However, I’m not sure this Dallas team would win at home either. Remember 19-3? Just figures Dak Prescott would have his worst games of the season to start and end the year.

Just curious to see how Dallas is going to blow this one. Leonard Fournette had his only 100-yard rushing game of the season in Week 1. Playoff Lenny time? Dallas is the only game this year where Tampa held a team under 10 points.

A Dan Quinn defense that has already blown leads of 14 and 17 points after halftime to Green Bay and Jacksonville? A Dallas offense that has thrown a pick-six in three of the last four games? The brain trust that brought us the QB draw in the closing seconds of last year’s wild card loss?

Yeah, save the popcorn for Monday night.

Final: Buccaneers 23, Cowboys 20

NFL Week 18 Predictions: I Know It’s Over, And It Never Really Began Edition

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It looks like we have made it to the end of another regular season in the NFL. In about 23 hours we’ll see if Aaron Rodgers and the Packers have set themselves up for possibly another playoff loss to the 49ers, or maybe it’s the Seahawks or Lions.

Chances are, if your team hasn’t clinched a spot yet, you’re not winning the Super Bowl this year. I still strongly believe this is a Chiefs-Bills-Bengals AFC and a 49ers-Eagles-Brady’s luck NFC. Maybe the Cowboys if the ball bounces their way, but I doubt it.

Saturday’s two games, which I’ll recap tomorrow night, did not inspire much offense as all four quarterbacks hit the under in passing yards and defense led the charge in both games.

We could be in store for some ugliness tomorrow as many teams just try to put the final bow on this season, and every player couldn’t help but feel impacted by Damar Hamlin’s cardiac incident on Monday night. Thankfully the news continues to be good for Hamlin, and I wouldn’t want to be the Patriots becuase I think Buffalo is going to kick their ass right out of the playoffs. In fact, I feel only more confident in my preseason pick of the Bills winning the Super Bowl. This team can celebrate a new lease on life after getting the best news possible on Hamlin after such a grim scene Monday night.

But we are also in that week where teams are just throwing Nathan Peterman (Bears), Davis Webb (Giants), and Joe Flacco (Jets) on the field to wrap this up. Is Kyle Trask going to play for the Bucs? I can’t see Brady, on hubris alone, willingly accepting a losing record at 8-9.

We just saw Josh Dobbs fumble the season away for the Titans. We’ll see what happens on the final Sunday of a weird regular season.

Some of this week’s articles:

I plan on having a bunch more during the playoffs.

NFL Week 18 Predictions

A rough Saturday for predicting the closeness of both games, but the favorite won both.

I have to go back to the drawing board next year. The ATS picks have just been lousy this year, and I think a big part of it has been trying to match up my preseason projections, which were really wrong on several teams (Rams, Broncos, Colts, Bucs, Cardinals, etc.), with what I was seeing on the field during the season. Way too many teams surged and slumped and I seemed to always be on the other side of it.

  • Could Denver and Indy really be this bad with Wilson and Ryan? Apparently, YES.
  • Are the Jags actually going to turn this around and the Titans going to collapse like that? YES.
  • The Lions at 1-6 and the Packers at 4-8 are dead, right? Apparently not.
  • Rodgers and Brady are going to figure this thing out, right? Eh, running out of time and only in the playoffs (maybe) because the NFC sucks.
  • The Vikings can’t keep winning every close game, can they? Fucking hell, it sure looks like it

I knew after having my best season of predictions that the regression was going to hit hard in 2022, but this has been rougher than I expected. We’ll see what the final results are tomorrow night.

NFL Week 17 Predictions: AFC Game of the Year Pt. 2 Edition

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I was going to call this the “David Blough Edition” as we are at that point of the season where teams are just trotting out any quarterback they can to finish off the season.

But there is a legitimately massive game on Monday night between the Bills and Bengals. I’m looking forward to that one more than Sunday combined.

Some of this week’s articles:

NFL Week 17 Predictions

The Cowboys keep turning that ball over, but it was enough to get the cover in the final Thursday game of the season.

Putting together some of my favorite talking points from the articles above, here’s a parlay for the week:

NFL Week 16 Predictions: Oh But It’s Cold Outside Edition

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Since 2013, the NFL has had one game with a total under 36 points. Today, there will be three, including a game in Cleveland that is just 32.5 points.

It might be an unpopular opinion, but I will continue saying it until the end of time. Any new stadium proposed for NFL use must have at least a retractable roof option. You can play the 25 degree game with flurries if you want, but when it gets to extreme weather like this, it’s a safety hazard for thousands of fans, and it’s going to have an impact on the quality of play. Not that anyone gives a shit about Saints-Browns at this point, but imagine if Bills-Bengals next week was played with a wind chill of minus-30. Not ideal.

Just a minute to share a couple links and predictions as I need to get some bets in before the 1 PM games start.

NFL Week 16 Predictions

Classic no-show by the Jets offense on Thursday.

We’ll see if the Raiders stun Pittsburgh again, but I really love the picks of a Pittsburgh win, Najee Harris TD, and Najee over 58.5 yards or whatever the final number ends up being. What better way to honor Franco (RIP) after his shocking passing than with Harris having a great game?

NFL Week 15 Predictions: No Ties Edition

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With the Vikings trying to make a 33-point comeback against the Colts, I might as well post the Week 15 predictions.

There’s no real must-see game this weekend as the NFL is surely disappointed that Bengals-Buccaneers and Rams-Packers aren’t going to be the premiere matchups in the 4:25 and MNF slots this week because of how much those NFC teams have fallen off.

I am curious to see what kind of weather we get in Buffalo tonight, because I’ve been waiting for Week 3 to see the Bills avenge that fluke of a loss. The Dolphins come in playing their worst football of the season too. Thundersnow? Whatever.

Some of this week’s articles:

NFL Week 15 Predictions

I swear, if the Vikings pull off the biggest comeback in NFL history…It’s 36-21 with almost 13 minutes left now.

I have no clue what Desmond Ridder is going to do, but I like him to hit his over in passing.

I wanted to take the Jets over Lions all week, but I switched my vote to protest Zach Wilson’s existence as QB1 again. Rest up, Mike White.

I think the Eagles and Cowboys win in blowout fashion and get ready for next week’s showdown. Think 2007 Colts-Patriots, but not as great.

Just noticing I picked 10 underdogs to cover and 5 to win outright. There may be regrets.

But please, no god damn ties again. Give us something decisive, Giants and Commanders. It’s bad enough we have to watch you in prime time. Give us a winner.

NFL Week 14 Predictions: Division Clarity Edition

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Replace the 2022 NFL script writers if SNF is Tua Tagovailoa leading a 16-3 comeback against the Chargers. We’ve seen it twice in a row now, but at least Baker Mayfield actually made some impressive throws to pull it off against the Raiders on Thursday night.

But the Week 14 schedule is a big one for division games where we find out if that recent meeting was telling the truth or not.

  • Jalen Hurts had the worst game of his career on the road against the Giants last year. Could it happen again?
  • Tyler Huntley always keeps it close for Baltimore, but his worst performance was in a 16-13 overtime loss against the Steelers to end 2021. Does Baltimore fall without Lamar again?
  • Remember when Russell Wilson was going to end Kansas City’s 13-game win streak over Denver? At least the Denver under is the best bet in football (11-1 this year).
  • Minnesota lost on the last play of the game to the Lions last year. Can Detroit do it again and end Minnesota’s winning streak in close games?
  • Can Mike White avoid throwing a pick parade against Buffalo for the second year in a row, or does Saleh’s defense have something on Josh Allen this year to complete an improbable sweep?
  • The Jaguars and Titans are also playing. Yep.

The one I took a great interest in was Browns-Bengals as Joe Burrow is somehow 0-4 against the Browns and 3-0 against the Chiefs. But I dug into that for some articles below and found some striking passing numbers from Baker Mayfield and Jacoby Brissett in those games that really provide the secret sauce for why Cleveland hasn’t lost to Burrow. By introducing a new character (Predator) into the fold, I’m not sure Stefanski can follow the same script right now. Maybe he can in 2023, but I like Burrow to get over the hump and get that first Cleveland win.

Some of this week’s articles:

NFL Week 14 Predictions

The Raiders cannot bring Josh McDaniels back next season. I said that after he lost to Jeff Saturday, which was on top of blowing three 17+ point leads. Now he blows a 16-3 lead to a skeleton crew roster around Baker Mayfield, who spent two days on the team? Completely inexcusable loss.

I love Lions by 1-13 points. End that streak for Minnesota. It’s past time. The fact that a 5-7 team is favored against a 10-2 team says a lot. However, I’d definitely hedge this leg in a parlay. Can’t trust the Lions too much. We have decades of proof of that.

I think Mike White and Garrett Wilson put up numbers again this week for the Jets.

Love another close finish between the Steelers and Ravens. Also expect George Pickens to get more passes this week. Tyler Huntley has played in 6 games decided by 11 points, and he’s rushed for 40+ yards in all six of those appearances. Something to keep in mind for SGP.

I think Giants keep it close enough with the Eagles again to cover.

Dallas should blow out the Texans but we’ll see.

Would say a lot about the KC defense if Russell Wilson chooses this week to light it up. But I’ve been playing an alternate line on that under (43.5) to account for a 30-16 type of final. It was 22-9 the first time these teams met last year.

Seattle’s RB injuries + run defense situation has me worried that’s a trap game with 49ers coming up on short week. D’Onta Foreman over and TD might be good for props.

Was digging for the upset pick the other day and landed on Tampa Bay if Brady bullshit is going to be back in business. No Garoppolo and Nick Bosa is banged up. Of course. Brock Purdy interception is a prop I like a lot here. He’s already thrown one in each of his two appearances off the bench.

I like the under probably more than most people for SNF.

Like the Patriots to open up the passing game on MNF after Mac Jones basically wanted to shit all over Matt Patricia on the sideline. No Jakobi Meyers might make it tougher, but random long catch by Nelson Agholor and maybe a Hunter Henry TD that counts this time.

NFL Week 13 Predictions: Super Sunday Edition

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It’s about time we had a strong looking Sunday schedule in the NFL. The only shame is Chiefs-Bengals and Dolphins-49ers are in the same window and neither game gets a national platform. Why didn’t they flex out Cowboys-Colts? Christ.

Not to oversell it, but these two games could have a significant impact on the races for the No. 1 seed in the AFC, the AFC East, the AFC North, and the MVP race.

If the Chiefs get past the Bengals, they really could go 15-2 as their only other game left against a team with a better record than 4-7 is a home battle with the Seahawks where KC will be favored for sure.

We get to see what the Chiefs learned from the AFC Championship Game, their second blown lead of 14+ points against the Bengals last year. Patrick Mahomes played the worst half of his career after the Bengals used a three-man rush and he repeatedly held the ball long and made bad decisions. I’m surprised this hasn’t been a dominant strategy against the Chiefs this year. Double Travis Kelce and only rush 3-4 while making them beat you with the other guys, who aren’t consistent. Maybe the Bengals do it again, and they are likely getting Ja’Marr Chase back on offense. just in time. Should be a good one.

As for the Dolphins-49ers, it’s a fantastic matchup of great offense vs. great defense plus the whole mentor/assistant coach angle between Kyle Shanahan and Mike McDaniel. I’ve actually been warming up to going with the Dolphins to win this one, if only because I expect the 49ers to disappoint in big games, and I think McDaniel may be smart enough to realize they’re not going to run the ball well in this game and adjust accordingly. Plus, I’ve been doing some digging into Tua this week and definitely went from skeptical to impressed. But the odds are stacked against him as they usually are when a quarterback on a team with a weak running game takes on a top-ranked defense on the road. But it is easier to win such a game in the regular season than in the playoffs.

Some of this week’s articles:

NFL Week 13 Predictions

The Bills came through on Thursday night, though I thought we’d see a few more points than we did.

I’m riding with Mike White to end the Vikings’ close-game win streak. Jets by 1-13 will be something I play several times.

I think the Jags lose a high-scoring game this week after winning their first in multiple years last week.

Counting on a huge game from Nick Chubb in Kyle Allen vs. Predator in Houston.

Taking the Giants to get back on track as we’re getting too used to Washington winning and I still don’t think the team is that good.

Is it just another boring Aaron Rodgers vs. Justin Fields game in Bears-Packers? This would be the moment for the Bears to come through and defeat Rodgers in a big way, but this team just stinks more than Green Bay. Packers until proven otherwise.

All I’ll say about Monday night is we’ve seen the Bucs host the Saints in prime time two years in a row. The Saints won 38-3 in 2020 and 9-0 in 2021 in two of the most dominant defensive performances you’ll ever see against a Brady-led team. The Saints don’t look capable of doing it this year, but after losing 13-0 in SF last week after a 24-0 win over the Raiders a few weeks before that, who knows anymore? It’s not like Tampa looks good.

I’ll aim for more sleep but it’s looking doubtful.

NFL Week 11 Predictions: Everything Old Is New Again Edition

~ scottkacsmar ~ Leave a comment

The NFL’s Week 11 schedule is filled with familiarity. There are five division matches, including four rematches from earlier this year. We also have a game moved from Buffalo’s blizzard to Detroit as the Bills look to avoid a soul-crushing third loss in a row.

The Cowboys will try to end Minnesota’s absurd close-game winning streak for the third year in a row after pulling off comeback wins behind Andy Dalton and Cooper Rush the last two seasons.

The Saints will never get proper revenge for the 2018 NFC Championship Game over the Rams, but the two meet this week with the Rams at 3-6 and no Cooper Kupp.

Baker Mayfield gets to start another game against the Ravens for Carolina, and it’s the biggest spread of the week at 13 points. But it reminds me of this interesting and still true fact:

I also have an eye on how the Eagles handle their first loss of the season against the Colts, a team that would probably be a 20-point underdog if the Eagles were still undefeated and Sam Ehlinger was still the starting QB in Indy. But Jeff Saturday knew he had to get the Poor Man’s Peyton back in the lineup to have a shot with this team, so that is another interesting game tomorrow.

Plus we also have the Washington Commanders going from beating the team with the best record to facing the team with the worst record. It would be such a random NFL thing for this team to beat the undefeated Eagles and lose to the 1-7-1 Texans in the same week.

Some articles I did from another busy week:

NFL Week 11 Predictions

At least Green Bay gave its fans four nights of thinking the season was still alive before that awful performance on Thursday night. It was just the second time in 37 games that Aaron Rodgers lost by more than seven points in a prime-time start at home.

I really like some of the underdogs to cover this week. One game I had no idea what to do with was MNF as it is uncertain who will be the quarterback for Arizona with Kyler Murray and Colt McCoy both injured. But it would be funny to see the 49ers blow that game because this is the sixth time Kyle Shanahan has come into a game with his career record at .500. He is 0-5 in those games and has never been above .500 as a head coach in the NFL. Is this finally the game that gets him over the hump?

I also want people to understand the crazy run Minnesota has been on. It’s in those articles linked above, but this team is 7-0 in close games and 5-0 at 4QC/GWD opportunities. If you go back to last postseason for Kevin O’Connell where he was the Rams offensive coordinator and they became the first team in history to win three straight playoff games by 3 points, that means he is on a personal streak of 10-0 in close games and 8-0 at GWD opportunities.

The 2022 Vikings can also become the first team in NFL history to win eight straight games by 1-to-8 points. They have tied the record by the 1996 Jaguars and 2020 Chiefs. Those Jaguars lost their eighth game, 20-6 in the AFC Championship Game in New England. Those Chiefs blew off Week 17 against the Chargers by resting starters to end their streak, technically won an eighth straight game under Patrick Mahomes by one possession against Cleveland in the playoffs (Mahomes left injured), then beat Buffalo by 14 in the AFC Championship Game before getting smoked 31-9 in the Super Bowl.

But what amuses me most about these Vikings is the scoring differential that ranks 94th out of 95 teams to start 8-1 since 1940. The only team below them (1976 Raiders) never lost another game and won the Super Bowl. The team above them (1987 Chargers) never won another game and missed the playoffs at 8-7 in that strike replacement game season.

Talk about two extremes. I don’t think the Vikings will follow either path, but it sure would be funny to see them finish 9-8 after an 8-1 start just to cement Cousins as the ultimate .500 QB.