How great was Week 10 in the NFL? I’m not just playing it up either because of the shit week that preceded it. The best games (DAL-PIT, SEA-NE) were the best games — only games with seven lead changes this season — and we had a season-high 10 games decided with a fourth-quarter score. I doubt the next seven weeks will be able to top that one.
I feel very certain that the Week 11 slate is going to pale in comparison. In fact, this might be the weakest week yet this season, with not much standing out other than the DVOA Title Match between the Eagles and Seahawks. Of course, I expect Seattle to prevail at home in that one by forcing Carson Wentz into mistakes, but that could be a tight, low-scoring affair for sure.
I think the turnaround of Tennessee’s offense has been very unexpected, and good for the league, but I also think the Colts will play better off their bye week and find a way to win yet another one against the Titans. Andrew Luck has yet to lose to that team.
Baltimore at Dallas is interesting only in the sense that how will Dak and Zeke perform against a pretty solid defense? Otherwise, it just seems like the Ravens won’t be able to score enough on the road to really make that a great game.
Buffalo at Cincinnati almost feels like a no-brainer game I’ll have to cover in Clutch Encounters on Tuesday, as a game between two evenly-matched teams this year. Might be a sneaky good fantasy game as well with the way Buffalo has been defending big plays/No. 1 WRs right now.
Vikings-Cardinals was one of my absolute favorite games to watch and write about in 2015. This year, the teams are just not as good, and I expect some pretty subpar QB play in that one.
The Rams are finally going to start Jared Goff, which should have been the case since Week 1. Not sure how two months of sitting will have made a difference, but Goff will make his debut in the 10th game of his career. I don’t expect much at all from him this week, but at least it’s something fresh to watch, even if it does reek of that Jeff Fisher 7-9 bullshit.
Packers-Redskins: I’m frankly just tired of watching Green Bay this season. Think I’ve seen them play live seven times this year, and it’s just not the same well-oiled machine we used to see on offense, and the defense has been poor with too many corners and Clay Matthews out. I think the Redskins have been getting quietly better on defense and balancing the offense with the run game, and should be able to get this one at home. Of course, for as long as I’ve been watching the NFL (post-Joe Gibbs 1.0), trusting Washington to come through in a fairly big moment (home SNF game) is asking for trouble.
And I’m definitely not all that interested to see Brock Osweiler try to play QB again on Monday night. The Texans sure have gotten a tough draw on the road schedule (NE, MIN, DEN), but at least this one is more like a neutral field in Mexico City.
I left out the Steelers-Browns until now, because you figured I would talk about that one in more detail. Yes, I absolutely think the 0-10 Browns can win this game. It would be a defining moment for the “Mike Tomlin’s team plays down to the competition” story. After all, this team struggled like hell with a 2011 Colts team that started the season 0-13. They went down 10-0 and had to win in OT against a 2012 Chiefs team that was 1-7 at the time. Tomlin has another loss to a 2-14 team in the 2014 Buccaneers at home. This would not be that shocking at all, especially if the weather gets nasty. The Steelers were not able to run the ball at all in two games against Cleveland last year. Hue Jackson knows this team very well from his experience in the division. Cody Kessler has not been great, but at least he has protected the ball, and should respond to his weird benching in the previous game. Isaiah Crowell has gone MIA in recent weeks after a good start, but that was more about game script and the opponents faced. Pittsburgh is a bad defense, and it just lost arguably its best player (Cam Heyward) for the season, which should make the run D even worse. While everyone has been able to beat the Browns, they were at least competitive in five games with 5 failed 4QC attempts. Pittsburgh isn’t anywhere near good enough to walk into this game lightly and expect a win. Ben Roethlisberger will have to play very well, and he usually does in Cleveland, but like I said, you have the potential for a one-dimensional offense here. Matchup wise, he should have a field day with Antonio Brown (Steelers are thin at WR otherwise), but if the passing game is hampered at all, then Cleveland will have a good shot in this one at home.
Pittsburgh’s season really hangs in the balance this week. A loss at Cleveland would be devastating, but there’s also a game in Indy on Thursday night. For a team that was largely considered the non-NE favorite to reach the Super Bowl, this has to be the week to get on track, or it’s over.
2016 Week 11 Predictions
I went with the Panthers on TNF, and they barely hung on in 2015 style for the win. Still a very disappointing season from that team.
Winners in bold:
- Titans at Colts
- Bears at Giants
- Buccaneers at Chiefs
- Ravens at Cowboys
- Jaguars at Lions
- Bills at Bengals
- Cardinals at Vikings
- Steelers at Browns
- Dolphins at Rams
- Patriots at 49ers
- Eagles at Seahawks
- Packers at Redskins
- Texans at Raiders
Bloody hell, I was even going to pick the Rams, but figured this was already too many home teams for the week. Upsets to the rescue I guess.
- Week 1: 7-9
- Week 2: 10-6
- Week 3: 8-8
- Week 4: 8-7
- Week 5: 7-7
- Week 6: 12-3
- Week 7: 10-5
- Week 8: 7-6
- Week 9: 8-5
- Week 10: 7-7
- Season: 84-63