The 2026 NFL regular season will be halfway over after Monday night when Week 9 concludes, and the trade deadline is the next day. Some contenders should be buying and some scrubs should be selling as the AFC playoff picture is almost a foregone conclusion already (barring absurd circumstances).
Then again, things can get absurd in the NFL in a hurry. We just watched an undrafted rookie start at quarterback for Baltimore (Joe Fagnano) just days after Lamar Jackson was supposed to be back. Whoops. Now the Ravens (4-5) have suddenly lost three straight games by 20+ points for the first time in team history.
Onto next year it looks as the Bills, Patriots, Steelers, Bengals, Broncos, Chiefs, and Jaguars have pretty good footing in the AFC playoff chase. I guess Cleveland (5-3) is still in the mix too.
As for the NFC, the Vikings are 6-1 but will start Carson Wentz at quarterback on Monday night. Maybe not a bad thing given the way Kyler Murray has played. The 49ers are also 6-1 but have been outscored by 20 points since Mike Evans was lost. The Seahawks and Rams were both preseason favorites but are just 4-4 at the moment.
If there’s a team that’s thriving right now that has a potential for greatness on both sides of the ball, it has to be the Chicago Bears (6-2). We know about Ben Johnson’s offense, and his defense gets takeaways and added Jeffery Simmons, who might just give the team Aaron Donald-level impact for the team that lost to the Rams (without Donald) in the NFC playoffs last year. Just keep an eye on how they fare in those tough division games where everyone knows Johnson’s offense well from setting it yearly in the NFC North, a division that is stacked again.
I think the NFC East and NFC South (regrettably) get one playoff team each. Neither should win that home playoff game. That leaves five spots for seven teams in the West and North, and that’s discounting the chance of some goofy Minshew Magic for Arizona (3-5). But two of those teams are going to come up short. Could that be Minnesota after the 6-0 start built on a blitz-happy defense and weak offense? Could that be the “super team” Rams succumbing to injuries and falling way short of expectations? They would probably be my picks, though Seattle still has to play the Rams twice in the last three weeks, which could decide something.
A team like Green Bay still has 6 games against the likes of NE/MIN/DET/CHI/BUF/LAR so they are by no means a lock either for the playoffs. FWIW, FanDuel has the Packers at -116 odds to make the playoffs, Rams at +100, Vikings are -320, and Seahawks are -122.
But would it really shock you if the Vikings went from 6-0 to 6-4 after they play the Bills, 49ers, and Packers next? I just don’t trust them, though I don’t really trust anybody this season.
Some Super Bowl matchups I think would be cool:
- Steelers vs. Bears: Aaron Rodgers’ final game against the team he “owns” and the Bears are good TV these days.
- Rams vs. Bengals: The Super Bowl 56 rematch I predicted before this season started.
- 49ers vs. Chiefs: Round III if they can get some healthy WRs who play well for them.
- Bills vs. Vikings/Lions: The ultimate “someone has to finally get a ring” Super Bowl this year.
- Broncos vs. Giants: The most “Eat Arby’s” Super Bowl you can get this year. Bo Nix vs. Nine. But if you saw Giants-Broncos in 2025, you know there’s potential for craziness there.
But I’m not ready to rule anything out at this point.
NFL Week 9 Predictions
I have been on an absolute tear since Week 7: 23-5-1 ATS and 23-6 SU. Jags was a no-brainer on TNF against the Ravens without a QB. But you know what this probably means? The regression is about to hit hard, so I wanted to almost second guess myself on several of these picks because I don’t trust myself to have a third-straight stellar week. But let’s see what happens.
CIN-ATL: I said before the season even started that Joe Burrow would likely win multiple games this season after trailing in the final 8:00 on dumb luck/regression alone. He finally got one last week against a shit Tennessee team, and don’t be surprised if he enjoys some “Falconing” in Spain to get a second in a row. The Falcons should play better this week out of the monsoon, but I’ll be damned if that 16-0 loss last week didn’t ruin any optimism over them after beating the 49ers.
DEN-CAR: The Panthers would be the kind of team who could start that close-game regression for the Broncos that hasn’t hit yet (like not at all either). But the Panthers haven’t been getting it done like that so far in 2026 either. I think Denver finds a way again to win this one.
DAL-IND: Great spot for the Cowboys to win after blowing the last game to Arizona and with the Colts looking to trade more pieces. Dallas thrives in the lowest of pressure spots like this.
CLE-NO: I don’t trust the Saints at all this year, but I trust Shedeur Sanders even less.
NYJ-KC: Well, after all my factual Andy Reid criticisms of the last few weeks, he should look like a genius with Aaron Glenn on the other side. But I can’t possibly pick the Chiefs to win by double digits at this point even with Garrett Wilson likely out (is he getting traded to KC afterwards?). They make too many mistakes and Geno could pick them apart if he shows up with his A game. I also don’ t think they’ll push for a QB sneak after the fervor over that in a game like this, but I am definitely playing a Mahomes TD score (+390 odds) this week.
DET-MIA: Dolphins are home and have been playing better, but isn’t that just AFC East familiarity with Jets and Pats? This line feels easy to me. Lions by a TD or greater.
NYG-PHI: Oh brother, Nine vs. Joe Milton. The splash zone is about the 12th row for a ball to land in your nachos. But I think the Eagles are wore out and the Giants seize the opportunity. Two of my 5 spread losses the last two weeks were the Eagles. I can’t pick them again.
LAR-WAS: One of those games where I feel like Rams should win easy, but reverse psychology thinks Washington should win, but I should do the opposite of my belief, so that takes me back to the Rams. But since I am probably going to get a bunch wrong this week, let’s just go with the Commanders to cover anyway.
HOU-LAC: My upset of the week, I’m going with the Chargers to finally get a win and possibly transfer the most disappointing team label over to the Texans. I don’t have any good reasons for it other than Stroud screws up repeatedly and Herbert takes advantage of short fields.
SF-LV: No Mike Evans or Deebo again? The Raiders score quite a bit without WRs. I think they play this one tough and could even steal it. But I’ll go with the Raiders to cover and 49ers win.
NE-GB: Packers have been playing well. I think Love outplays Maye and they win this one in NE.
ARI-SEA: Lucky Drew Lock gets yet another game against that Arizona defense. I think Gardner Minshew will find starting much tougher than life off the bench against Dallas. Blowout possible but beware of divisional rematches with a backup QB. Or two in this case.
TB-CHI: Can we get some forward passes from Baker? 7 completions in 8 quarters is nuts. I think the Bears take advantage of that lack of passing chemistry with the Bucs, and they come out looking strong here. Possibly the new SB favorite in the NFC if the 49ers were to fall to the Raiders earlier in the day.
BUF-MIN: Good offense vs. defense matchup again like last week on MNF, and we saw offense (Bears) win that one. While I think Wentz probably gives MIN a better chance to win this game than 2026 Kyler Murray, I think he’ll still make costly mistakes in the end that allow Buffalo to escape with the win. But it should be fun to see how Flores approaches the Buffalo offense here. Maybe give the other NFL teams some ideas for the rest of the season.
