Tag: Steelers

2026 NFL Stat Oddity: Week 7

NFL Stat Oddity 2026
~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

If I’m just being honest, the Sunday action wasn’t very good in the NFL, and the best game of Week 7 was on Thursday night between the Patriots and Bears. A refreshing display of two young quarterbacks playing well from the 2024 draft.

But I think I know why things felt off on Sunday. Despite it bringing the week’s count to nine games with a comeback opportunity, we only had one lead change in the fourth quarter, and that happened 24 seconds into the fourth quarter in Minnesota against the Colts.

We had a few other games where a fourth-quarter tie was broken, including an overtime game in Houston. But those games involved some funky coaching decisions where the home team got lucky in Detroit, and the Browns got away with an egregious false start on their game-winning drive.

Sunday’s two island games in Paris and SNF were also low on possessions, so they didn’t take long to get through, and the stats were depressed from both. That added to some of the malaise of the day. Not that I expect things to get any better on Monday night, but Tanner McKee lighting up Dallas would be entertaining at least.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Packers at Lions: Game of the Week (But Not Really)

This had the makings (and yardage) of a fun shootout. But in the end, it was a 20-17 tussle in the NFC North. The Packers started and ended their day with missed field goals, and the Lions had their first turnovers (that’s plural) since Week 1.

I don’t know if Tom Brady had money on the Lions and his presence in the building led to the Packers missing a 26-yard field goal and 35-yard field goal (blocked) as only the LOAT could conjure, but the Packers had another terrible day on special teams. At least Josh Jacobs looked good in his return, scoring a touchdown and putting up 55 receiving yards. Regular running game was still a bit stagnant (19 carries for 60 yards).

Jared Goff threw for 303 yards, 153 to Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Jameson Williams hogged both touchdowns on a day where tight end Sam LaPorta had just one catch for 18 yards.

But the game was sloppy, and you can question some of the coaching. The Packers were aggressive early with three conversions on fourth down, though when they went to the well one time too many, they came up empty before halftime on 4th-and-4. The only good news is Jahmyr Gibbs answered that stop with a red-zone fumble with 0:19 left in the second quarter.

But Dan Campbell is going to do Dan Campbell things on fourth down, and maybe that rubs off on Matt LaFleur in these matchups. Campbell failed on a 4th-and-5 at the Green Bay 6 late in the third quarter when a chip shot field goal could have given him a 20-14 lead.

After the Packers tied the game at 17, the Lions had another decision on 4th-and-1 at their own 24 with just under 5:00 left. Campbell went for it again, and Gibbs was stuffed for a 2-yard loss. That decision drew the most ire of any coaching decision on Sunday. The fourth-down models out there were reportedly split on it, so you know it’s close at the very least.

I think it was a mistake that ended up not costing Campbell because he got lucky that the special teams ended up blocking the 35-yard kick with 3:21 left.

If you look at the play the Lions ran, they would have been lucky to get a yard. So, let’s say you go for it and convert it. You’re still 75 yards away from the end zone. For all you know, you might be punting after the next three snaps and with less time left, making it less likely you see the ball again. But that’s the successful side, leaving you 75 yards away from the end zone with possession.

On the flip side, if you get stopped like they did, you’re making it far more likely that the Packers have easy access to a score to go up 20-17 or 24-17. Then you’d need a desperate scoring drive. But you’re gifting them that field position. You don’t know they’re going to screw it up and not get the field goal.

I don’t buy the reason that “Green Bay controls the clock” with that much time. Good luck to them if you think they can run out the clock and kick a last-second field goal against a team that has four clock stoppages left. The Lions were likely going to get another possession, and this was a 17-17 game; not a 31-31 efficient shootout. Teams were making mistakes here. It wasn’t a crisp day.

So, I would have been fine with a punt there. It ended up working out as the Lions had the ball back with 3:21 left at their own 25 anyway. It’s as if they got the yard and 90 seconds magically disappeared. One completion to LaPorta and a roughing penalty practically put them in field goal range, which just feels so easy to do anymore when you gotta have it.

A neutral zone infraction on Green Bay on 3rd-and-5 gave the Lions an automatic first down after the 2-minute warning, which really hurt. The Packers were going to let Gibbs score (he had -425 odds to do so too) as their last hope on third down, but he wisely took a dive. Might want to learn how to slide better because he risked a season-ending knee or ankle injury to do it.

The Lions made the 22-yard field goal to get the 20-17 win and move to 4-2, which still has them in third place in the division with the Vikings (6-0) and Bears (5-2). I still think Chicago should probably win this division again as the team with the best chance to show real growth over last year and be very good on both sides of the ball. The Packers and Lions showed some of their dumb tendencies in this one, and the Vikings have that dreadful offense that shouldn’t be this dreadful.

But these games are important in a division that is aiming for history with back-to-back years with everyone above .500.

Chiefs at Seahawks: Super Bowl-Esque If You Mean LV and LIX

Had last season gone better and the Chiefs returned to another Super Bowl to face the 2025 Seahawks, it may have looked like Sunday night but worse with Kenneth Walker on the other side. Even with Walker on their side, the 2026 Chiefs were held to a single field goal and did not reach the red zone once in a 20-3 loss that is just the fifth loss where the Chiefs trailed by double digits for the entire fourth quarter with Patrick Mahomes at quarterback.

Was it inevitable? Successful offensive minds like Kyle Shanahan (49ers), Josh McDaniels (Patriots), and Sean Payton (Broncos) have had their cracks at the Seahawks since the calendar turned to 2026 and things haven’t gone well for them either. The 2026 Seahawks are doing some historic things on defense again under Mike Macdonald, and the Chiefs went into this one without their best wideouts and without both starting offensive tackles.

About the only proven way to beat this Seattle team is to win the turnover battle and get short fields to score on that defense. Even when Washington scored 33 points this year, they were +3 in turnovers and had just one drive longer than 43 yards (it was a 60-yard touchdown drive). The 49ers got to 32 points in Seattle with a return score and touchdown drives of 11, 18, and 74 yards.

If you have to go the distance against this defense, you are probably screwed. On Sunday night, each offense only had eight drives, and both quarterbacks threw one bad pick for the only turnovers. However, Darnold’s pick in the end zone wasn’t returned far enough before halftime, and Harrison Butker was short on a 58-yard field goal. A bad sign for his leg strength.

That also means 25% of the Chiefs’ drives ended with a Butker miss as he was off again from 45 yards after a long drive with 8:33 left to play. That one would have made it 13-6 and possibly set up an interesting ending. Instead, the Seahawks drove for another touchdown with Emanuel Wilson breaking a 21-yard scoring run to go over 100 yards and outclass Walker on the night. That also means the Chiefs’ eighth and final drive came down 20-3 with 3:36 left. I would have put Justin Fields at quarterback at that point.

When the Seahawks aren’t turning the ball over, they’re golden. JSN is the most unstoppable wideout right now, and he was great again with 9/150/1 against all the corners the Chiefs could throw at him. Of course, the Chiefs hadn’t been tested by good WRs during their 5-0 start. Not one bit.

The Chiefs played the easiest portion of their schedule to get to 5-0. In their first big test of the season in terms of a Super Bowl contender, they failed miserably with one of the worst-played games of the Mahomes era.

  • The Seahawks were 11-of-16 on third down, converting seven times on 3rd-and-6+.
  • Seattle’s speed was not going to let Walker beat them; he had 18 touches for 57 yards and never gained more than 7 yards on any play.
  • Xavier “Kadarius Toney” Worthy failed miserably in another game as de-facto WR1 with 11 yards on 6 targets and a drop that left Mahomes visibly frustrated.
  • Mahomes was only credited with one sack, but it was on an odd-looking play where it looked like he wanted to do a quarterback draw and fumbled with a sandwich hit in the open field. Even if he pulled up and wanted to throw, no one was open on the play.

This should be the low point of the season for Kansas City’s offense, which should at least get Rashee Rice back next week for a more important game in Denver. It was always going to be tough to overcome this defense of a desperate team that lost two straight, and the Chiefs never came close to matching Seattle’s intensity.

But in terms of showcasing yourself as a Super Bowl contender again, this game feels like a major red flag on where the Chiefs are in 2026, and that’s not good enough. All the roster flaws were on full display, and it’s unlikely to get much better for them unless by some miracle Josh Simmons decides to play and Tyreek Hill signs on and is 75% of what he once was. That still leaves some serious issues with the pass rush and one idiot kicker who is washed.

If the Chiefs had to face the Seahawks in the Super Bowl, that would probably not go well either. When the Chiefs are playing musical chairs with their offensive tackles against a great defense, you simply can’t trust them to be anything short of a disaster. I’m not sure I can name a team that has succeeded in those circumstances, and the fact this happens this frequently for the Chiefs is the most troubling part of it all. Two Super Bowls, the last two games with Mahomes against Houston and Los Angeles in 2025, and now Sunday night.

If this game isn’t a wake-up call to Reid and Veach that the roster isn’t good enough, then nothing will be this year. They can’t just write this off to tough week on the road shorthanded. Because it’s going to happen again. And again. And again.

And they haven’t proven they can stop it.

Bengals at Ravens: Whoops, They Did It Again

Back so soon, Baltimore? It was just last week when I pointed out in the Cleveland loss how the Ravens are repeating so many of their greatest hits from losses of year’s past whether it’s the blown double-digit leads, the Derrick Henry-led running game disappearing, or Lamar Jackson being out with an injury.

If there wasn’t so much competition from the Chargers, Rams, and Texans, the Ravens (4-3) would be in the mix for the most disappointing team in the NFL this season. This team was a Super Bowl favorite in the AFC and it has a worse record than Todd Monken’s Browns (5-2) and John Harbaugh’s Giants (4-2-1) now.

People will say Jackson being out is the reason, but it’s so much bigger and systemic than that. Even his absence from injury is another issue as fans and some media members are catching on that Jackson will seemingly not play until he feels he’s 100%. You can debate if that’s the right move for his career or not, but just understand there are definitely some quarterbacks who would do more to push to play in a big game like this one. But not Jackson.

And after the latest blown double-digit lead (13-0 at halftime), the Ravens (4-3) are in last place in the AFC North with the Bengals getting the early tiebreaker edge over them. Who knows, Sunday might be the last time this season the Ravens were ahead of the Bengals in the AFC North standings.

Once again, this team had no problem taking a 13-0 lead into the half with Tyler Huntley significantly outplaying Joe Burrow. How often do you see Lamar throw for 215 yards on 21 passes in the first half of a game? Huntley did that here and he’s the lesser passer.

But the second half was a completely different story. Tee Higgins made huge catch after huge catch on the way to 148 yards and a touchdown. The Bengals ripped off five straight touchdown drives, including two that started in Baltimore territory after a turnover on downs and Huntley interception.

The Baltimore offense was again very complicit in the blown lead and loss. After moving the ball so well in the first half, the Ravens followed a three-and-out punt with an ill-advised 4th-and-2 incompletion at the Cincinnati 12 to start the fourth quarter. I probably would have kicked the field goal there to regain the lead given what we know about Cincinnati’s history of trailing in the fourth quarter with Burrow. But tight end Cuevas wasn’t even looking for the ball on a wasted possession.

That kind of sums up the Ravens in these games. Poor attention to detail, lack of focus, no leadership to lean on, bad coaching decisions, and a roster filled with stars who aren’t closers. Suddenly, they’re getting hit for big plays on defense and aiding the opponent with turnovers.

That’s how you become the third team to lead by 13+ points at halftime and still lose by 20+ points. Hadn’t been done since 1951.

Meanwhile, this is the second week in a row the Ravens pitched a first-half shutout, had the halftime lead and lost the game. That only happened one time ever to John Harbaugh and twice under Brian Billick’s watch. This is two weeks in a row just seven games into Jesse Minter’s tenure.

When Minter was in LA the last two years, the Chargers only blew two fourth-quarter leads. Sunday was technically not a fourth-quarter blown lead, but it was a third blown lead of 10+ points in the second half for Minter.

Harbaugh was the scapegoat for these losses. What happens now that he’s gone and things are only worse? You have to put the blame on the players and the person picking the players. That’s why I never felt good about saying it was Harbaugh when Baltimore’s issues year after year were players making critical errors at the worst times.

With Buffalo and Jacksonville up next, the Ravens are really at a tipping point in their season. Things could spiral out of control here if they don’t step up.

Steelers vs. Saints: Some Belle de Jour in Paris

The 16-10 final score in the NFL’s first regular-season game in Paris is extremely misleading. This game had just 13 total possessions between the Steelers (7) and Saints (6), and I didn’t even have to exclude any kneeldown-only drives to get that absurdly low number. Eight of the 13 drives had at least 11 plays to them, so this was a very offensive game despite the score.

Is 13 possessions a record low? No, the 2023 Raiders vs. Broncos season opener had 13 drives too, and it was really 12 when you remove a kneeldown before halftime. But 13 is definitely in record territory.

How did these teams sustain so many long drives despite only combining for two touchdowns and 26 points? There were many near-turnover opportunities as the Steelers came up empty on a few chances at fumble recoveries. They also dropped a pick early from Tyler Shough, though they got him on a big one to start the third quarter. The Saints also missed a 52-yard field goal early in the fourth quarter, and the Steelers took a late field goal off the board due to a game-ending penalty on the Saints. They ran out the clock instead.

I thought Aaron Rodgers played a very smart game, knowing when to check it down, when to go deep, and when to throw the ball at the feet of a receiver who was going to get blown up for a loss of yards or no gain. Shough wasn’t bad either with no running game to speak of (14 carries for 11 yards) while Jaylen Warren had another 101 rushing yards for the Steelers.

In the end, the better team won after the Steelers technically ran out the final 5:52 in a 16-10 final. The key play was Rodgers using his legs to gain 8 yards on a 3rd-and-6 scramble.

The Steelers are 5-2 with a shot for some revenge on Cleveland next week. The Saints fall to 2-5 in the NFC South.

49ers at Falcons: Injuries Catch Up to San Francisco

Maybe the Chiefs should take note of how the 49ers ran their offense through their running backs and tight ends in Atlanta because of all the injuries at wide receiver. Most notably, Mike Evans (Achilles) missed Sunday’s game, his first full game missed this season, and it had an impact thanks to Christian McCaffrey also temporarily leaving the game after a dominant start that helped the 49ers to a 14-3 lead.

Eventually, those injuries hurt the 49ers on their way to their first loss of 2026. Down 19-14 in scoring territory in the third quarter, Brock Purdy forced a pass that was intercepted by Jessie Bates. Even though the Falcons started at their own 10, they put together a 90-yard march that ended with Drake London’s first touchdown of the season (finally) to take a 26-14 lead.

Purdy was then sacked on a 4th-and-10 at the Atlanta 23 as the Falcons racked up two sacks, two picks, and also forced George Kittle to fumble in the final minute of this one. You may have thought a huge Bijan Robinson day would be the path to an upset for Atlanta, but he rushed 20 times for just 63 yards. He did have 5 catches for 59 yards, and Penix threw three touchdowns while taking no sacks and throwing no picks.

The 49ers were able to get the ball back in a 26-20 game with 4:02 left and the ball at midfield. But Purdy never saw the defender for another huge interception with 2:34 left. The Falcons ran the ball three times and added an insurance field goal to go up 29-20.

The 49ers need to get Evans and Deebo back ASAP as it hasn’t been a good six quarters without them going back to the Washington game.

Colts at Vikings: At Least They Didn’t Blow a 33-Point Lead Again

Four years ago, Jeff Saturday’s Colts infamously blew a record 33-0 lead in Minnesota. In 2026, I’m not sure the Vikings can even score over 33 points like that nor will they need to with the way Brian Flores’ defense is performing.

The Colts led for most of the game with Jonathan Taylor’s 38-yard touchdown run on their opening drive. But they struggled to add to it, and the Vikings were down 10-6 in the fourth quarter before Kyler Murray threw a go-ahead touchdown to tight end T.J. Hockenson.

The Colts had nearly the full quarter to answer, but they followed a punt with a missed 48-yard field goal with 4:22 left as kicking has been an issue ever since Adam Vinatieri retired. Meanwhile, a Minnesota kicker actually made a clutch kick from 52 yards to give the Vikings a 6-point lead, which I normally hate. But in the context of facing Daniel Jones, it’s probably fine. Jones had 64 net passing yards on 28 pass plays in this one.

Jones had 94 seconds to lead a touchdown drive, but it lasted two snaps before he threw a pick right to Harrison Smith to end the threat. That’s how the Vikings get to 6-0 and the NFL’s last remaining perfect record. Hard to believe it’s them.

You’d like to see the offense getting better as Murray had his full receiving corps, and the Colts have been one of the worst defenses this season. But a paltry 16 points at home with Murray throwing for 150 yards was enough to get another win.

The real test is next week in Detroit for this team.

Rams at Raiders: If McVay Blew a 28-3 Lead Here…

The Rams scored four straight touchdowns to end the first half as they led 28-3. They basically did whatever they wanted offensively with three touchdown passes from Matthew Stafford, and both running backs topped 90 yards and a score on the ground.

Kirk Cousins hadn’t done much of anything when it was 28-6 going into the fourth quarter. But the Raiders strung together a couple of touchdowns after getting a deflected pick. This could have been a one-score game if they didn’t fail on both two-point conversions in the quarter, so it remained a 28-18 game with 13:12 left. Plenty of time.

If Sean McVay was going to blow a 28-3 lead to this team, he might as well hang it up in Los Angeles. But the Rams had a vintage drive to put it away that consumed almost half the quarter before another touchdown run by Blake Corum. The Raiders got a field goal (35-21) and the Rams ran out the final 4:10.

I don’t know if the Rams (3-4) are necessarily back, but it was a much-needed win to end the slide. Meanwhile, the Raiders continue to be exposed for their lack of weapons at WR and pieces on defense outside of Maxx Crosby. They might still think they’re competing for a wild card berth, but I’d start thinking about starting Fernando Mendoza and let the rookie shake out the growing pains to help him along for 2027.

Broncos at Cardinals: Bo Nix Does His Tim Tebow Thing Early in the Game

I find it funny how Bo Nix gets dinged for playing poor football for three quarters before going off in the fourth quarter. That’s what John Elway did for so many years and Denver fans loved it, and Tim Tebow was taking it to a crazier level in that 2011 season.

But Nix had a better game against a lesser Arizona defense this time, and he did something different in this one. He saw the opening for a long scramble that turned into a 62-yard touchdown run to take a 13-6 lead in the second quarter. Even Tebow and Elway never did that in the NFL.

Nix finished with an 80.3 QBR, though I can only imagine how high it’d be if that was a third-down scramble in the fourth quarter instead of a 2nd-and-7 play in the second quarter.

But that changed the complexion of the game, and R.J. Harvey took a short pass 52 yards for a touchdown in the third quarter for another big play to help Denver not have to rely on the fourth quarter this week. The Cardinals had the ball at the 1-yard line with first-and-goal at the 2-minute warning in a 30-16 game, so they were still going to need to recover an onside kick to make this interesting. But they couldn’t even get the first touchdown after an impressive goal-line stand by Denver to end this one.

Giants at Texans: Your First-Place New York Football Giants

With a division title a real possibility, I applaud John Harbaugh for sticking with J.J. McCarthy after his almost comeback last week from a 34-10 deficit. We all know what Jameis Winston is (and what he isn’t) by now, so why not see what you really have with McCarthy?

“Nine” didn’t disappoint either. He had two touchdown drives and the Giants missed two field goals in the first half alone as he hit 9-of-10 passes to start the day with a third-down drop by Malik Nabers thrown in there too. He was feeling it, because the Houston defense is no longer elite.

It’s not even good at this point, and I have a hard time understanding why when it’s still DeMeco Ryans’ scheme, and they haven’t been decimated by injuries like you’d expect to see drag a unit down. They just gave up 252 yards through the air to McCarthy, and the Giants also rushed for 188 yards, which proved critical in overtime.

It’s truly one of the most disappointing losses in franchise history after an impressive shootout win over Jacksonville in London a week ago. The Texans came home, they were a 10.5-point favorite, and they laid an egg. Sure, C.J. Stroud didn’t have any turnovers, Marvin Harrison Jr. caught his first touchdown, and Tank Dell even contributed a 43-yard catch on a deflected ball for his first action since a gruesome knee injury in December 2024.

But once again, offensive competency was not enough for the Texans, who forced overtime with a late touchdown drive. But the Giants won the coin toss and decided to kick, which I still think is the right strategy most of the time. Let Houston be bound by conservative three-down football and give the loose cannon McCarthy four downs to answer if he needs a do-or-die score.

It didn’t come to that. The Texans didn’t gain a yard on three plays for a quick punt, and McCarthy just had to complete one 9-yard pass to Nabers before his running game did the rest. Cam Skattebo broke off a 42-yard run, and he even slid to make sure he wouldn’t fumble the ball in another overtime after that got him effectively benched last week. Then they put Devin Singletary, the former Texans back, in the game and he finished them off with a 30-yard touchdown run to end it. No field goal shenanigans.

Just like that, the deflated Texans are 2-5 and feeling hopeless again while the Giants (4-2-1) lead the NFC East as the only team with a winning record in the division.

Browns at Titans: Another Predator Sequel in the Fourth Quarter

At this point, I swear Deshaun Watson is purposely playing like ass early to set up opportunities for game-winning drives late to endear himself to the fans. At least he threw for over 300 yards in this one. Nice defense, Saleh.

Even though Tony Pollard had a monster day (129 yards, 3 TD), it wasn’t enough for the Titans. Probably should have seen the warning flags early when their 14-0 lead was built on two touchdown drives that covered a total of 89 yards. The offense didn’t score again until the fourth quarter but at least Cam Ward was able to lead tying field goal and touchdown drives.

But with the game tied 24-24 in the final minute, Watson had the ball at his 45 with just 0:28 left when maybe the most controversial play of the game happened. Cleveland’s right tackle got away with an egregious false start that wasn’t called, and Harold Fannin took the short pass 36 yards to set up the winning field goal from 32 yards on the final snap.

I don’t know how you can miss that one, and I don’t know how there isn’t some mechanism in place in the final 2:00 whether it’s replay assist or being able to challenge something so obvious and game changing. Maybe the Browns take the 5-yard penalty and still hit a pass to kick the winning field goal, but that play should not have counted.

The Browns are 5-2, but I still see no reason to believe in them as a real contender. They slum it with the worst teams and are blowing through their clutch wins before Halloween.

Buccaneers at Panthers: The NFC South Is Destined to Suck

I really do hate this division, because once you start to think a team is figuring things out like Carolina, they just shit the bed their next game. This division produces some unseemly blowouts out of nowhere too like how we saw Carolina win 34-3 in Atlanta in Week 2.

But Sunday was an embarrassment at home for the Panthers and Bryce Young, who took five sacks and had three turnovers, including a fumble returned for a touchdown to make it 17-0 in the second quarter.

Baker Mayfield returned for Tampa Bay, but they could have won this game with a blindfolded Blaine Gabbert if they had to. Mayfield finished just 7-of-11 for 64 yards and a touchdown. The Buccaneers, who rushed for over 250 yards, are the ninth team in the modern era (second since 1979) to score at least 43 points with no more than 65 net passing yards.

I know division games can be weird, but 43-13? Back to the drawing board for the Panthers (3-3), who have a quick turnaround with Green Bay on Thursday night.

Dolphins at Jets: Crack Open the Faygo, 2008 Lions and 2017 Browns

Leave it up to the Jets to let the 2026 Dolphins get their first win in Week 7. The Stooges of the AFC East take care of their own so that the bottom isn’t rock bottom in the NFL. Not that I ever thought Miami was going to seriously challenge 0-17, but they won’t be joining the 2008 Lions and 2017 Browns as the only teams to go 0-16 or worse.

Miami’s offense had by far its best game of the season with rookie Caleb Douglas catching two touchdowns, Ollie Gordon rushed for 103 yards and a touchdown, and a huge sack of Geno Smith on third down forced a field goal in the fourth quarter when the Jets were 3 yards away from the tying touchdown. Miami added another long touchdown to Douglas, and then they were able to run out the final 3:17 on the clock to not give the Jets another chance in a 28-25 game.

In fact, it was a bit ballsy to go quarterback run on 4th-and-1 at the New York 49 with 2:00 left. If you get stopped there, the Jets are a first down away from game-tying field goal range. But Willis picked it up and the game was over. Miami finally has a win.

Next Week

Not crazy about Panthers-Packers on TNF after Sunday’s games. But it beats seeing another NFC East matchup. I think we get a break this week from the 9:30 AM games even with the clock turning back an hour.

The big 1 PM game should be Ravens-Bills, but how can we take anyone’s word for it that Lamar Jackson will actually play? If he’s “not close” to 100%, then I doubt we see him at this point as Baltimore’s season falls apart. Otherwise, Vikings at Lions is a good one that could finally hand the Vikings a loss. But I’ll be mostly watching Browns at Steelers in that slot.

Chargers at Rams is the LA Disappointment Bowl. Chiefs at Broncos is a lot more interesting now. Chiefs could very well lose that one too for similar reasons to Seattle game. Eagles-Commanders is more NFC East bullshit in prime time on Sunday night. Hate they didn’t flex that out. Chicago at Seattle could be very interesting on MNF. Another chance for Ben Johnson to show his value against a defense that many of his top peers have floundered against.

2026 NFL Stat Oddity: Week 6

NFL Stat Oddity 2026
~ Scott ~ 1 Comment

Some people are letting Week 6 upsets lead them to believe the NFL is rigged. Sunday certainly had a lot of weird fantasy/betting results in terms of who was putting up the yards and touchdowns. I won’t dispute that fact after my new betting strategy failed miserably in its first weekend.

But as for the outcomes on the scoreboard, let’s not forget divisional games are often weird. The Cardinals beating the Rams and the winless Titans beating the Cols on the road are both divisional upsets. Those teams know each other better than most, and the Rams were dealing with a new coach (Mike LaFleur) who was Sean McVay’s offensive coordinator the last three seasons.

Still, the Arizona Cardinals having more wins at SoFi Stadium than the Rams and Chargers combined after Week 6 sounds fake as hell. Not rigged, because who in the world would want to produce these standings?

It’s also true that a lot of games are close this season as we had 10-of-13 games with a comeback opportunity this week. Four more teams blew a double-digit lead, bringing the season total to 17 in just six weeks. Some teams can’t seem to get out of their own way in crunch time while others are thriving as the Bills and Browns are both 4-1 at game-winning drive opportunities behind rookie head coaches.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Texans vs. Jaguars: Game of the Week

Guess I slept on most of one of the best international games the NFL has ever produced. I figured this would be a good one and I had the Texans winning it, but I did not expect both quarterbacks to throw for over 300 yards, 3 touchdowns, and take no sacks. Both threw a pick in the end zone, but that just added to the intrigue and late-game strategy in what was really the last stand for Houston competing in the AFC South after that 0-4 start.

But we saw Marvin Harrison Jr. make an instant impact with three catches for 34 yards. Not huge numbers but pretty good for him in his first game. We also saw Travis Hunter living up to that two-way draft potential with a touchdown catch followed by an interception on back-to-back drives in the fourth quarter. Impressive player.

Both of these teams have struggled giving up yardage to wide receivers. They came in ranked No. 32 (Jaguars) and No. 30 (Texans) in that area, and it didn’t get better in this game even if Nico Collins and Parker Washington didn’t dominate. The other players stepped up.

Houston was always better than its 0-4 record as the offense has been better than expected, but the vaunted defense blew three leads in the fourth quarter. This could have easily been a fourth as the Jaguars did rally back from a 31-21 deficit to tie the game with 1:55 left after Cam Little’s 60-yard field goal.

About that tying drive…Is it almost a curse to have a kicker with great range in today’s NFL? I think in the past, a team facing a 4th-and-4 with the prospects of a 60-yard field goal would have gone for it. The Jaguars still had three timeouts too, so it was possible to get the ball back if they were stopped. Also possible if the kick was missed. But that used to be such a tough kick, and someone like Little makes it look routine now.

But I think if Liam Coen wanted to go for that one, he would have been justified. They still may very well have ended the drive with a tying field goal, but at least they would have used more clock and made the likelihood of overtime greater.

Instead, the Texans had a full 1:49 to work with, and they milked it for all its worth. A couple of short passes to Woody Marks was enough to get into field goal range, and the Texans worked the clock beautifully to set up the 49-yard field goal as the very final play. No shenanigans like last week in giving the Jaguars a chance to get Little in position as he could probably hit from 70 if he had to.

Very good win for the Texans, who I think are still dangerous at 2-4. I think they’re better than some of the 4-2 teams right now. But they have to get on a run like they did last year, and the defense clearly isn’t as good as it was in 2024-25. Though, if Stroud can keep playing like this – he’s getting Tank Dell back this week too – then they have a shot for the playoffs.

Cardinals at Rams: Super (Disappointing) Team

The Rams were a 12.5-point favorite in this one. It’s not like we haven’t seen Sean McVay’s team blow a game as a big favorite before. He’s only done it more than anyone since 2017.

But this felt different. The Cardinals seemed to not respect the Rams’ offense and blitzed Stafford effectively. He struggled to get to 200 yards late in the game. No matter what you think about the kicking situation in LA, there’s no excuse for this offense to have one touchdown on nine drives as they trailed 15-9 late into the fourth quarter.

Just continuous sloppy play by the Rams, whether it was a Tyler Higbee fumble in scoring territory, or a false start penalty that led to Stafford trying to throw a screen on 4th-and-8 (?) in the final minutes.

But Puka Nacua did make a 43-yard catch that got the offense going, and Colby Parkinson’s 6-yard touchdown put the Rams ahead 16-15 after the punter (Evans) made the extra point after lightweight kicker Blake Grupe tore his ACL trying to make a tackle on a kickoff earlier in the game.

However, Parkinson being ruled a touchdown instead of inches short was probably a blessing in disguise for the Cardinals. We just covered a late-game scenario in Jaguars vs. Texans where you could argue the Jaguars should have gone for the fourth down to not leave so much time for Houston.

I really think the NFL has changed a lot in the last few years with kickers getting even more range (K-balls help, I guess), and the new kickoff rules promote both a shorter field after a touchback (35) and more longer returns are possible now. It’s just not that hard to set up a long field goal and make it these days.

In this situation, the Cardinals were out of timeouts with 52 seconds left. The Rams faced 2nd-and-3 at the Arizona 6, so they could get a first down without the touchdown too. I’m not advocating that a team should take a knee and run clock here, or that Parkinson should have purposely came up inches short to run the clock. You take the touchdown when you can, but at the same time, you can call plays that dictate how possible that touchdown is too.

Given the clock and timeout situations for both teams, I think the Rams scoring on second down was costly. Sure enough, without a real kicker to handle the kickoff, the Rams kicked a touchback and the Cardinals were at their 35 with 47 seconds left. Maybe not the greatest situation to be in, but not a bad one for a 12.5-point underdog as they only needed a field goal.

And it took a single play to get into range after a 21-yard completion with a bullshit 15-yard penalty tacked on for the hit that was unavoidable. Just like that, the Cardinals were at the 29. After three runs to burn the Rams’ timeouts and get a little closer, the Cardinals made the 43-yard field goal to drop the Rams to 2-4 and last place in the NFC West.

Jacoby Brissett is now just 7-27 (.206) at 4QC opportunities, but that’s a memorable upset for him and the Cardinals. Just another regrettable loss for the Rams, who are quickly falling apart as they don’t have a kicker and they lost Davante Adams (hamstring) for 6-10 weeks.

I don’t feel confident that the Rams can rebound from this, because the super team we were promised on paper never existed. The Rams never took the field this season in a game with Myles Garrett, Aaron Donald, and Trent McDuffie (out Sunday) all active.

That’s still no excuse for blowing these games against the Broncos, Bills, and Cardinals the way they did. It’s almost like by sharing a stadium, the curse of the Chargers has consumed the Rams now.

Ramming.

Ravens at Browns: The Old Familiar Sting

Sunday was nothing new for the Ravens as you can take your pick of past headlines from their games and apply it to this 13-10 loss in Cleveland:

  • With Lamar Jackson out, the Ravens lost another low-scoring game in Cleveland.
  • Baltimore blew another 10-point lead after halftime, adding to their league lead since 2018.
  • Young kicker Tyler Loop had another key miss from 49 yards away that could have made it a 10-point game with a quarter to play.
  • Derrick Henry had another costly fumble in the fourth quarter, which led to a 35-yard game-tying touchdown drive for the Browns.
  • The defense was flagged for DPI on third down to extend Cleveland’s drive for a touchdown too.
  • Unable to close offensively, the Ravens went three-and-out on their last two drives.
  • Deshaun Watson hit a 33-yard pass to Jerry Jeudy on a 3rd-and-5, leading to the game-winning field goal instead of getting the offense off the field for Baltimore.

Jesse Minter’s commitment to the Harbaugh bit is something else. Meanwhile, Todd Monken may not be getting great efficiency out of Watson, who threw for 164 yards after taking 5 sacks. But he’s getting timely plays out of him, and the defense has been better than expected after trading Myles Garrett to the Rams.

I still think the Browns are fool’s gold at 4-2, but they are at least finding ways to win games that the Ravens keep finding ways to lose.

Steelers at Buccaneers: The Rodgers-McCarthy Comeback You’ve Never Seen Before

I used to annually grill Aaron Rodgers and Mike McCarthy for a decade in Green Bay where they would almost never have the sort of comeback win they had together on Sunday in Tampa Bay for the Steelers.

In Green Bay, there was just one game where Rodgers and McCarthy won after the Packers trailed by double digits in the fourth quarter. It was in the opener to their final season together (2018) against the Bears when they were down 20-3 before winning 24-23.

On Sunday, the Steelers looked horrible for three quarters, especially on offense and special teams. Rodgers was taking sacks, he narrowly avoided a pick-six (dropped), and kicker Chris Boswell seems broken. They were fortunate to be playing an undrafted rookie quarterback in Jalon Daniels instead of a veteran like Baker Mayfield.

But everything changed after the first play of the fourth quarter after Rodgers, trailing 16-3, drilled a pass to D.K. Metcalf for 17 yards to convert 3rd-and-16. From there, it was all Steelers. Daniels threw a pick, the Steelers settled for a field goal, then Boswell redeemed himself with a 58-yard field goal to tie the game. Jamel Dean, the former Buc, picked off Daniels to set up a 20-yard field goal after the Steelers failed to punch it in from the 1.

Again even a rookie quarterback was able to start from his 35 with 1:21 left and easily got the game-tying field goal that forced overtime. I agree with the decision for Tampa to go on defense first. Hope you sack Rodgers and end a drive, so you only need a field goal to win. Then if you give up a touchdown as they did, at least you’re giving Daniels four downs to work with the whole field. No disagreement in strategy there.

But the Steelers did get that touchdown as Germie Bernard capped off his big day with his first touchdown. He should be the WR2 as I saw more out of him in one preseason game than what Roman Wilson has done in Pittsburgh. But the injuries to Michael Pittman Jr. and Wilson opened the door for Bernard on Sunday, and he was very good. Like a Randall Cobb type for Rodgers.

Daniels needed a touchdown. He was able to overcome one 4th-and-9 with a scramble, but on 4th-and-8 at midfield, a well-timed blitz led to the second sack of the day for Jalen Ramsey to end the game.

This is the first time since the 2002 AFC Wild Card vs. Cleveland that the Steelers won after trailing by 13 points in the fourth quarter. Yes, the Tommy Maddox vs. Kelly Holcomb shootout. Yes, that also means Ben Roethlisberger never did this in his HOF career despite having more overall comebacks than Rodgers. Sure, he did put the team on top in a playoff game against Jacksonville after trailing by 18 points in the fourth, but the Steelers found ways to blow his big comeback attempts.

The Steelers get one behind Rodgers and they’re 4-2 before heading to Paris to take on the Saints. It’s the kind of comeback I certainly didn’t expect from Rodgers and McCarthy after seeing how bad this game was for 45 minutes. But they got it done.

Bears at Falcons: Caleb Williams’ Big Return

It looks like Ben Johnson’s offense works just fine when he’s playing non-NFC North defenses. Caleb Williams returned and had a 30-of-36 for 305 yards passing game that is more akin to the kind of offense you want to see from this team. One where Luther Burden (95 yards) and Colston Loveland (65 yards and a touchdown) are leading the way over Kalif Raymond. They also needed this from Caleb after the running game was mostly contained (29 carries for 95 yards).

But even though the Bears took a 31-7 lead on the first play of the fourth quarter, they had to sweat this one out a little. The Falcons attempted what would have been the first 8+8+8 comeback in NFL history and got two-thirds of the way there thanks to the offense coming to life and forcing a fumble in between scores.

Johnson’s vaunted offense was faltering and the Bears went three-and-out again. Michael Penix had plenty of time with 3:34 left. But in typical Atlanta fashion, a holding penalty changed a first down into a 3rd-and-16, and he was strip-sacked with 2:54 left. The Bears gained two first downs and ran out the clock to escape with the win that was sweatier than it needed to be.

Chargers at Chiefs: Is Kansas City Great or Are the Chargers This Terrible?

The Chiefs improved to 5-0 with a 22-6 win over the now 0-6 Chargers that left a lot of fans wondering just how good this team is, or just how bad the Chargers really are.

The Chiefs could certainly be accused of “playing with their food” in this one as Andy Reid was conservative, kicking three times on 4th down with 1-2 yards to go inside opponent territory. The red zone was a struggle as Patrick Mahomes threw an interception (his only real mistake of the game) while trying to throw a ball away under pressure, and Kenneth Walker was stuffed on a 4th-and-1 run at the goal line as that’s the one area he pales in comparison to 2024-25 Kareem Hunt. It also took the Chiefs deep into the game before finally getting their first sack since Week 1 against an amateur offensive line.

Kansas City also brought back the “obligatory fumble” on a bad special teams play with a fumbled punt after Remigo went backwards on what would have been fantastic field position for the Chiefs in the third quarter. Harrison Butker also missed a field goal and extra point. Vintage 2018-22 “We can only beat ourselves” Chiefs are back.

But in a league where 10 of the 13 games this week were so close in the fourth quarter, you have to give the Chiefs credit for playing underwhelming, sometimes stupid football and still winning 22-6. Keep in mind the Chargers were 0-5 at comeback opportunities this season, yet they trailed by at least 13 points for the entire second half in this one.

That’s pretty good for a Kansas City team that was missing its two best wide receivers and playing most of the game with two backup offensive tackles. It was also a good showing for Xavier Worthy (caught all 7 targets for 73 yards) and rookie Cyrus Allen had a nice 23-yard catch from Mahomes that looked like they’ve been doing this for a long time.

But the Chiefs will get a tougher test in Seattle in prime time. That will give us a much better idea of where this team is as a Super Bowl contender this season. Still, beating the Dolphins and Chargers by solid margins without playing that well is an encouraging sign.

Titans at Colts: The One That Got Chris Ballard Fired

Full disclosure: I was a legitimate Colts fan from 2002-2019. They were my second-favorite team behind the Steelers, and it was because they played a different brand of football (pass heavy and all the dramatic comebacks), Peyton Manning was my favorite player, then they drafted a generational talent in Andrew Luck in 2012.

When Luck retired, my interest waned, and it was replaced by the way the Chiefs were playing with Patrick Mahomes. The difference is I’m not a Chiefs fan; I’m a Mahomes fan. That means I technically have to root for the Chiefs to do well so that he does well, but I will never say I’m a Chiefs fan in the way that I was content with my fandom for the Colts for two decades.

With that said, the Colts became irrelevant to me once Luck retired. They weren’t fun to watch anymore with their annual acquisition of a washed quarterback, and I think going for Carson Wentz, one of my whipping boys, in 2021 really was the final nail in the coffin for my fandom.

The Colts have really done nothing since Luck retired too except embarrass themselves. Sunday was maybe the lowest point yet after they blew a 13-0 lead at home to the winless Titans. That was enough to finally get GM Chris Ballard fired after a brutal tenure.

Even when the Titans win, it still feels like a loss for Cam Ward as he threw for just 102 yards in the game. The Titans took the lead in the fourth quarter on a blocked punt for a touchdown, which sounds exactly like the kind of touchdown you’d expect in a game between these teams.

But the Colts failed to come back late, and they’re 2-4 and irrelevant to the season just as they have been for years. They’re turning into the Titans on a level of “Who Gives a Fvck?” and that’s sad to see for a franchise that used to be a huge source of entertainment for me.

Bills at Raiders: Not Ready for the Big Boys

The Raiders’ 3-0 start always felt a bit fraudulent since it came against the Dolphins, Chargers, and Saints. Two of those teams are still winless too. The Raiders haven’t won ever since Klint Kubiak said “we’re going to win the game” at halftime against the Chiefs. They lost that game by 3, got clobbered in New England, and now lost a 33-30 game at home to the Bills.

I think Kubiak is going to have them moving in the right direction, and they can be a force if Fernando Mendoza is the real deal, giving Kubiak a quarterback with mobility that Kirk Cousins just lacks. They also need to find some more defenders as it’s really a one-man show with Maxx Crosby.

But this game is just another sign that the Raiders aren’t quite ready to beat the big boys in the AFC. It also is another sign that the Bills don’t have a Super Bowl-caliber defense. Another 33-30 game, another one where they blew a 10-point lead and had to get another  touchdown to break a tie.

Allen becomes the 10th fastest (149 games) and fourth youngest QB to 30 game-winning drives (playoffs included).

NFL Quarterbacks with 30 Game-winning Drives (GWD)

However, I’m also not convinced the Bills are improving in the passing game. There is way too much reliance on off-script plays from Josh Allen, and that drive that ended with his long shovel pass touchdown was a great example of how so much of this offense is fishing for flags right now. The Raiders were penalized twice on Allen incompletions on that drive, including a 3rd-and-9 that would have been a three-and-out.

I’m not sure D.J. Moore is the magic cure here either when he returns. They just need to find more ways of getting guys open and throwing on time. What they’re doing is working for now, but I don’t see the defense getting better, and I think they’ll find it tougher when they aren’t playing teams with their heads up their ass like the two Los Angeles teams, or a Raiders team that just lacks the real talents at WR and defense.

The Bills are just scraping by to win shootouts in September and October, but that doesn’t present much confidence for a winning streak in January and actually playing in February for a change.

Cowboys at Packers: The Game That Wouldn’t End

I’ve seen some slogs on SNF, but this one takes the cake. I agree with Cris Collinsworth that the first quarter was exciting with both defenses going aggressive to force mistakes. But after that, it was so clear that the Packers were the better team, Dak Prescott didn’t bring his A game, and the Cowboys were just never really in the game. A far cry from 40-40 overtime tie no matter how many flags the refs tried to throw to keep this alive.

The Cowboys are a poorly-coached team with a rubbish defense, and the Packers are finally hitting their stride with Christian Watson and Matthew Golden leading the way for Jordan Love in the passing game. Golden had 6/104/1 and it could have easily been more if he could catch a few he dropped.

The Packers simply own Dallas and have done so for the last 15 years.

Saints at Giants: J.J. McCarthy Leads One of the Greatest Almost Comebacks in NFL History?

I like a good “almost comeback” story in the NFL.

In Week 2 of the 1992 season, the Giants were down 34-0 to the Dallas Cowboys in the third quarter. The Giants scored four touchdowns to make it 34-28, but when they got the ball back with 3:42 left, they went three-and-out and punted it back with 2:07 left. Dallas, which would go on to win the Super Bowl that year, ran out the clock. Bummer, as that would have been the biggest comeback in NFL history if the Giants pulled it off.

That’s my go-to game for the best almost comeback in NFL history, so Sunday’s result wasn’t even the best one in Giants history. Still, what a crazy finish after the Saints, who always seem to give the Giants problems, were up 34-10 with 11:31 left.

  • J.J. McCarthy entered the game for a struggling Jameis Winston and promptly threw a pick too.
  • But the Saints fumbled two plays later, so McCarthy, or “Nine” got the ball back with 9:31 left.
  • More than half the quarter was gone before the Giants finally scored a touchdown with a 2PC with 7:00 left to make it 34-18.
  • The Saints were a bit dumb in throwing two incomplete passes to stop the clock and punt it back after a 65-second possession.
  • McCarthy was throwing deep YOLO passes and made it work for another quick touchdown drive, and this time the 2PC failed. It was 34-24 with 5:06 left.
  • The Saints again went three-and-out on a quick possession.
  • McCarthy led a drive that saw him spike the ball with 2:08 left at the 23 to get a 41-yard field goal (34-27). Interesting decision to save the two-minute warning with the Giants down to two timeouts.
  • The Giants kicked deep, and even though the Saints wisely returned it to use up the 2MW stoppage, they still ran it three times and punted.
  • McCarthy had 57 seconds to drive 71 yards for the potential tie or win, and he got things started with a 28-yard scramble.
  • After two more completions and some spikes, the Giants faced 4th-and-1 and were 14 yards away from the end zone. The rally came up short after McCarthy’s pass to Likely fell incomplete, ending what would have been an insane comeback from an unlikely hero.

Nine threw for 243 yards despite only playing part of the fourth quarter. With Jaxson Dart done for the season and Jameis Winston not playing the most inspiring football, I almost think you should just start McCarthy and see what happens.

Panthers at Eagles: It’s Truly Over in Philadelphia

The bigger news than this game is that Jalen Hurts has several blood clots in his lungs and his season is over with his career a question mark. I had a pulmonary embolism in 2016, and my main symptom when I knew things weren’t right was a fast heartbeat at rest and an impending sense of doom. The latter is a real medical symptom.

An impending sense of doom is apt for the 2026 Eagles as it’s never been more over for a team after their fourth-straight loss. Bryce Young and the Panthers played well on the road, and backup Tanner McKee had his shot in a 19-14 game with 9:32 left. But one bad snap doomed the drive right away, setting up a 2nd-and-22 and another three-and-out before the Panthers added an insurance score following the Eagles’ 8-yard punt. Yikes.

Hurts will take blood thinners, which I was on for nine years before getting my doctors to agree I could stop in 2025. Other athletes, including Victor Wembanyama, have been able to continue playing after a DVT clot, so I wouldn’t write off Hurts just yet.

But I really think the negative fallout from how this was handled and the way the Eagles are falling apart here is going to get someone canned, and head coach Nick Sirianni feels like a good candidate for that as I’m not sure what he really does for the team anyway. He’s always been a coordinator merchant.

It’s a good thing the Eagles won that Super Bowl in 2024, because that era is over. Windows don’t stay open for long in this league.

Jets at Patriots: Trivial AFC East Scrimmage

The Patriots continued heating up on offense against A.J. Brown’s best wishes as he had drops in his return to action. But Drake Maye threw three touchdowns without taking a sack, and Geno Smith had a costly pick in the fourth quarter when the Jets were down 23-13 and across midfield.

The Patriots nearly ran out the final half of the quarter before settling for a short field goal to make it 26-16. The Jets tacked on a field goal with 32 seconds left, but they weren’t able to get the onside kick and this one was over.

New England (4-2) is still right there behind the Bills (5-1) in the AFC East. Once again, the Jets (2-4) and Dolphins don’t matter (0-5). But two stooges aren’t as bad as Three Stooges.

Next Week

Patriots-Bears is a nice TNF matchup with young quarterbacks. I guess I’ll have to set the alarm early for Sunday with the Steelers and Saints in Paris, and the NFL picked about the worst week possible for that game to be there.

The 1 PM slate is all about Bengals-Ravens, but that’s not a very good game if Lamar Jackson can’t go. Might be Cincinnati’s year in the AFC North if they get to play Tyler Huntley (again).

Green Bay at Detroit is carrying the late window. Good game there. Chiefs at Seahawks is not quite as good as it would have looked a few weeks ago, but I can’t wait to see what plan Macdonald has for Kenneth Walker. Might be the first time you see a team truly take him away and make Mahomes try to win with those wideouts and tackles. Good chess match.

Dallas at Philly on MNF? Yuck, I think I’d rather watch an obscure British comedy series on Tubi or another Carrie remake I haven’t seen yet. Fvck the NFC East bias.

2026 NFL Stat Oddity: Week 3

NFL Stat Oddity 2026
~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

The 2026 NFL season was running low on close games with just 15-of-33 games presenting a game-winning drive opportunity to start the year. But Sunday changed that with 12 such games, and we saw nine game-winning drives after 10 in Weeks 1-2 combined. It was one of the most competitive days in NFL history, and the only surprise is none of the games reached overtime.

But despite 10 new head coaches and 21 new offensive coordinators, it’s surprising how little positive change we’ve seen around the NFL from last year.

Sure, the Patriots looking much worse against a tough September schedule isn’t a surprise. The Chargers, Texans, and Buccaneers are all 0-3 and playing poorly. But a lot of teams look like the teams we saw last year:

  • The Broncos are still relying on huge second-half comebacks while the Rams blew their third 16-point lead since 2025.
  • The Bengals are now 1-34 with Joe Burrow at quarterback when trailing in the final 8:00, and the Steelers had the Tomlin Special with an unexpected clutch win as a home underdog after the defense came up with the strip-sack.
  • The 49ers are piling up injuries and wins at the same time.
  • Jacoby Brissett is putting up passing volume and losses for Arizona at the same time.
  • Detroit needs to score 31 points to have a chance to win with their one-man defense (Aidan Hutchinson).
  • Geno Smith has improved the Jets’ offense, but he can’t help Aaron Glenn’s defense get a single interception (20 games and counting).
  • The Bills can still drop five turnovers at random, and Chargering is still on brand.
  • Kyler Murray hasn’t been efficient as the Vikings rely on improbable wins (par for the course for KOC).
  • The Cowboys and Ravens kept the win probability charting jumping in the fourth quarter, a reminder you can’t trust either team in big games.
  • No second-year quarterback magic to turn a team around after Jaxon Dart had a season-ending injury for the Giants, Cam Ward actually looks worse instead of better in Tennessee, and Tyler Shough can’t seem to play a 60-minute game for the Saints.

At this point, the 3-0 Raiders and 2-1 Browns might actually be the teams that shock the NFL world with their rookie coaches and different veteran quarterbacks taking over. But they’ll play their arch rivals in the Chiefs and Steelers in Week 4, so we’ll see just how real that change is and how much is playing opponents who haven’t actually changed much from 2025.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Bengals at Steelers: Game of the Week

I usually have a solid read on Steelers-Bengals game but not this time. I thought Aaron Rodgers was going to have to throw it 40+ times in a one-dimensional offense that had shown zero ability to run the ball, and they’d have to do it against a new-look Cincinnati defense that was stopping the run (149 yards allowed in two games) without Rico Dowdle, and Jaylen Warren was reportedly banged up in practice late in the week.

However, right from the first drive,  you could see Rodgers was dialed in and determined to shred a defense he attacked relentlessly in Cincinnati last year in the Unc Bowl. Rodgers was sharp, they moved the pocket for him so he wasn’t a sitting duck all day, and the receivers had fewer mistakes with drops this week.

Rodgers threw two touchdowns in the first quarter, breaking an embarrassing streak as the Steelers finally scored more than 7 points in an opening quarter. Their 72-game drought of not doing that was the longest (playoffs included) in the NFL since 1940.

And yet, it almost didn’t matter that Rodgers doubled the number of offensive touchdown drives this team had in Weeks 1-2 in one quarter, because the defense wasn’t showing up this week. T.J. Watt wasn’t getting his pressures, and the Bengals were slicing and dicing through a secondary that still didn’t have corner Joey Porter Jr. That led to a lot of free releases for Tee Higgins and Ja’Marr Chase as Joe Burrow completed his first 14 passes, and he even got a touchdown to Higgins while Higgins’ ass was going to the ground.

Roman Wilson did tip a Rodgers completion into an interception before halftime, and that was a big swing as the Bengals used that to get a game-tying touchdown drive to make it 17-17 at the break. The Bengals had their blunders on special teams with a roughing the punter and muffed punt, which led to more scores from the Steelers.

Tied at 27, Jaylen Warren had an 87-yard run negated by a holding penalty from D.K. Metcalf, who did a better job of minimizing his mistakes this week, but that penalty could have been a huge one. Speaking of huge, tight end Darnell Washington proved once again why it’s coaching malpractice that he doesn’t get more targets after his 47-yard YAC-filled stomping of the Cincinnati defense.

Warren should have had a 32-yard touchdown run to take the lead on the next snap, but he stumbled and fell, possibly winded from the 87-yard run that didn’t count earlier. In the end, that cost the Steelers 4 points as they couldn’t get the touchdown, but it did at least help burn over three full minutes off the clock.

Still, the Bengals were only down 30-27 and had plenty of time (2:08) from their own 30. But this has always been the test for Burrow and the Bengals, and sure enough, it was another failure as they looked out of sorts right from the start, needing to burn a timeout before the first snap from scrimmage on the drive as their process wasn’t ready to get the play in.

While Chase made a nice move to get 17 yards into Pittsburgh territory, the drive again went haywire out of the two-minute warning after Burrow threw a late checkdown to Chase Brown that lost 4 yards and 35 seconds on the clock. While Chase converted the 3rd-and-8 to the Pittsburgh 38, the drive was about to implode just as CBS announcer Ian Eagle said Burrow’s “had a flair for the dramatic” in his young career.

Derrick Harmon was the one this time with the pursuit of Burrow, who initially got away only to cough up the ball instead of protecting it on first down. The Steelers got the recovery with 44 seconds left and that’s all she wrote on this one. Steelers get the 30-27 win in exactly the kind of game the Bengals never seem to win with Burrow at quarterback.

Burrow is now 1-34 when trailing in the final 8:00 in his NFL career. The only win was in 2022 at New Orleans. Zac Taylor is now 2-18 (.100) when the Bengals allow 28+ points with Burrow at quarterback and 3-9 (.250) in such games without Burrow. Why do you have the most expensive QB-WR-WR trio in NFL history if they always lose this kind of shootout?

I have covered this for years, including this summer in my Cincinnati preview. The people who try to claim the stat is fake news are just angry that it’s undeniably true:

  • While Burrow is 6-21 (.222) at all opportunities when he’s trailed by one score in the fourth quarter or overtime, five of those six wins saw him take the lead for good before the 8:00 mark. Only the 2022 Saints game came later in the game.
  • If you study front-runner quarterbacks, which has included the likes of Len Dawson, Bart Starr, Kurt Warner, Cam Newton, and Aaron Rodgers in the past, you’ll find an uncanny correlation that not only do they tend to have fewer 4QC victories than their peers, but the quality of their successes are usually weaker (i.e. smaller deficits, performed earlier in the quarter instead of later, and usually against lesser opponents).
  • So, instead of using 7:30 to signify the last half of the fourth quarter, we can just round it to 8:00 because the stat is still 100% true. Burrow has one such win in his NFL career.
  • As for the other side of the record, Burrow has lost 36 games including the playoffs. He’s left two losses early before the fourth quarter even started (2020 Washington when he tore his ACL, 2023 Baltimore when he was injured on TNF), so we remove those two games, and that’s how you end up with 1-34.

It’s a horrific record for someone who is supposed to be a top quarterback. Patrick Mahomes is 17-35 (.327) in the same situation. Lamar Jackson is now 11-33 (.250) after starting 1-1 this season. Josh Allen is 15-42 (.263) after starting 2-0 this season.

This is who Burrow has been, and in his first opportunity to turn things around in an important AFC North game, he had one of his worst blunder drives yet.

Meanwhile, Rodgers becomes the 13th quarterback with 40 game-winning drives. It took him the most games (290), four more than Brett Favre needed, as they stand out as outliers here (fittingly).

NFL Quarterbacks - 40 Game-Winning Drives

But in a battle of two of the all-time frontrunners, Rodgers showed he’s still got something in that arm as long as his guys are catching the ball for him. Burrow’s still got some growth to do as he continues to come up short in these situations.

Tale as old as time…

Rams at Broncos: Is It Still 2025?

I wish I had more to say about this one, but you likely saw it play out on SNF with 40 points in the last 1.5 quarters after the Rams were seemingly in control with a 16-0 lead. But when you’re playing Denver, that’s not the end of the game anymore as Bo Nix just seems to wake up when he’s down in the second half.

This game was certainly in his 2025 wheelbarrow, but with Matthew Stafford throwing 55 passes and Nix throwing 34, you’d think the roles were reversed on who was up 16-0. But the Rams threw this one away in similar fashion to their blown leads of 16 and 19 to the Eagles and Seahawks last year on the road too.

Nix threw a bad pick that led to a Rams’ field goal, but then Stafford threw an ugly pick-six (his 33rd; the most in NFL history) that gave the Broncos a 23-19 lead. Stafford answered right back with big throws for 78 yards on three completions to Mumpfield, who was filling in with Puka Nacua out again.

But the Broncos had one more moment of controversy in them with Pat Bryant selling what looked like a game-changing interception in the red zone with 1:09 left. It sure looked like a pick after the receiver cared more about embellishing contact to get a flag than he did actually trying to catch the ball. That was one of the worst calls I saw all Sunday and would not have threw a flag there.

With new life, the Broncos found the end zone eventually with Nix doing the old Brees/Stafford sneak of sticking the ball out before pulling it back quickly. Down 30-26 with just 0:42 left, Stafford did a nice job of driving the ball to the 14 with a chance to win. But I’m not sure what Stafford thought he saw on the final play as the pass was easily intercepted, and Denver held on for the 30-26 comeback win to drop the Rams to 1-2.

The usual caveats: Puka Nacua and Myles Garrett were out. Pretty big deal when you’re talking about the receiver who always gets open and the reigning DPOY. Aaron Donald also isn’t fully back after two years off, and maybe he never gets back on track as an elite player. But he’s still not going to be 100% after two games.

We can’t really call the Rams a superteam if they’ve never put their best players on the field in the same game. However, those new additions at corner were supposed to fix a leaky secondary that hurt them in spots last year, and that was not the case in this game as Nix came alive with his receivers in the second half.

At least the special teams weren’t horrific for the Rams this time. But this was such a 2025 loss for the Rams and such a 2025 win for the Broncos, who got a whopping 10 yards on 7 targets out of Jaylen Waddle, who has been a bust in 2-of-3 games so far.

It’s early, but these teams still seem to be playing that volatile level of ball that could easily implode on them in a big game against a competent opponent.

Ravens at Cowboys: Brazil Gets the Full NFL Experience (Minus Overtime)

The field seemed to hold up fine in Brazil, though the game was fairly defensive for 2.5 quarters before things started to open up more. The Ravens didn’t ignore Derrick Henry in the second half this week, though they may have wished they had gone away from him on a 4th-and-goal from the 1 where he was stuffed for a 3-yard loss with the Ravens up 24-21.

The Cowboys actually turned that into a 96-yard touchdown drive to take the lead, then stuffed Henry again on 3rd-and-1 for a quick three-and-out. That’s when it felt like maybe this day would be different for the predictable Cowboys, who usually lose such a game. But then the offense went three-and-out, and Jackson drove the Ravens 64 yards for the go-ahead touchdown with 1:30 left.

Dak Prescott had the Cowboys driving again, though I think the DPI penalty on Nate Wiggins in coverage with CeeDee Lamb was a terrible call. That’s either OPI, something on both, or let them play and don’t flag anything. They picked the fourth and worst option.

But Dallas did not embrace the moment of the gift. You get first-and-goal at the 2 with one timeout left, you have to get that TD. Settling for the game-tying field goal is not great. Let’s win this now. But the Cowboys didn’t call great plays, they had a big false start penalty, and Prescott just threw the ball away on third down as he was allegedly directed to even though George Pickens appeared wide open in the end zone. Dak just threw it away over him.

I get the sense of caution down there, especially for the new overtime rules that make it fairer. But you have to try to get the touchdown, and I think Dallas missed a big opportunity there. They scored with 7 seconds left, then more mistakes happened.

First, I think the touchback at the 35 is a horrible rule. I know we’re never going back to the 20-yard line as was the standard in the 2000s. I could live with the 30-yard line after a touchback too if it means a few more kick returns. But the 35 is just absurd as you can now complete one pass and suddenly you’re in makeable field-goal range with the way the kickers are these days.

That’s what happened again too. Just when you thought we’d get overtime, the Cowboys kicked it deep, and that’s probably the worst time for Aubrey to have a big leg as it didn’t burn any clock and it put the ball at the Baltimore 35. Lamar Jackson threw a deep pass to Zay Flowers for 27 yards, and they got done with 0:01 left before using that final timeout. The kind of drive you don’t probably get if Flowers was inactive as you’re not trusting Rashod Bateman in that spot.

Can you trust second-year kicker Tyler Loop? A bit easier than his Week 18 gag in Pittsburgh as the playoffs weren’t literally on the line this time. If he missed, the game would have just gone to overtime. That’s why I think it’s a big confidence builder to see him make that one from 56 yards out to lift the Ravens to a 36-30 win.

It wasn’t the prettiest way to get there, but the Ravens didn’t blow another one. But if that ball was 5 yards further back, then you’re looking at a 61-yard field goal. That feels fairer than the 35 and a 27-yard pass getting you right not 56-yard range. Just my pet peeve and something I hope the league reconsiders.

Chargers at Bills: I Think I’m Out on Justin Herbert

As much as I wanted to slot Justin Herbert into the Dan Marino/early Peyton Manning/Drew Brees “Savior” archetype of great quarterbacks, he’s just not that guy anymore. Maybe he never was as his best years were his first two COVID-era years in 2020-21, and the Chargers wasted that potential.

Since then, it’s been a slow decline that we blamed on the turnover of his receivers and offensive line injuries. But in a situation that was supposed to open up the offense this year, Herbert has never been worse on the deep balls, and his decision making looks like that of a guy who is studying Madison Beer instead of his next opponent.

Even with his defense giving him five turnovers (sound familiar?), Herbert lost in Buffalo after throwing this fourth-quarter pick with a chance to add to the lead he did little to build in the first place:

The Bills were having their annual meltdown game with turnovers a bit earlier than usual, and yet Herbert couldn’t take much advantage as the Chargers had no touchdowns on their final 10 drives after starting the game with a 47-yard march after a James Cook fumble.

Josh Allen had the kind of 3-turnover game that reminds you why he’s never been a first-team All-Pro, but he got two more of his 1-yard push touchdowns to pad his total on the year. That was enough combined with a good running game from Cook (154 yards) to close the Chargers with the defense stepping up when it needed to again.

But I don’t actually buy that the Bills won a game they usually lose. They won a game the Chargers always lose. That’s just the truth. Now 0-3, it’s a matter of seeing how bad things can get for Harbaugh and Herbert.

Texans at Colts: Stroud Burnt By the Sun

An AFC South battle to determine who would get a win and who would fall to 0-3. In the end, the Texans took their lumps on the road, burning out in the awful sun-spotted Lucas Oil Stadium after giving up a late lead to Daniel Jones on a game-winning drive after C.J. Stroud had given his team a 17-16 lead with 1:48 left.

For all the hype about Houston’s defense, 2026 just hasn’t been their year. While they did force three takeaways in this game, they couldn’t stop the Colts from using most of the clock on the go-ahead field goal, leaving Stroud with just 11 seconds and no timeouts left to answer. His Hail Mary came up short, and for the second year in a row, the Texans are 0-3.

They obviously rebounded to make the playoffs just as they did from an 0-3 start in 2018 under a different regime. But this is unlikely to happen again, and with Nico Collins out, Stroud just doesn’t have his best weapon and he’s struggling to elevate the remaining receivers.

If Stroud really did turn down a deal worth over $50M, it’s going to probably be a big mistake as his value continues to drop each week while this team keeps losing. As for the Colts, I’m not sure it’s a win to get them on the right path to anywhere meaningful, but it’s good to get a win and avoid 0-3.

Chiefs at Dolphins: Vintage 2021 Chiefs Performance

The Chiefs have to be doing something right if they’re winning by 14 points on the road without playing even a B-game in my view. But the Dolphins being such a weak roster helped with that, and yet this was still a 17-10 game in the fourth quarter as the Chiefs looked like a vintage version of their flawed 2021 selves:

  • Rashee Rice tipped a pass into an interception after Patrick Mahomes hit his first 11 throws.
  • Kenneth Walker is breaking a ton of tackles because the run blocking isn’t good and he’s being met in the backfield often; the Dolphins have defended the run well this year (their only good unit, arguably) and they stuffed the Chiefs several times to keep this close for a while.
  • The Chiefs look like they’re back to a team where Mahomes and Kelce are carrying the load even though Kelce was only targeted on the first play (48 yards) and one of the last for a touchdown to put it away.
  • Mahomes was 20-of-24 with a throwaway and drop despite solid pressure in his face from the Dolphins.
  • Penalties on the offensive line made some drives harder than it used to be (redundant).

It’s a 24-10 win nonetheless, but it still feels a little disappointing given the way they started hot with two touchdown drives on offense. As for the controversial roughing the passer penalty, it’s a moot point. It only got attention because it benefitted the Chiefs even though the dreaded “body weight” rule for roughing has been in place since 2018 and we’ve already seen it applied in other games this year, including Vikings vs. Packers (the original inspiration for it) in Week 1.

Besides, there was a flag for defensive holding on Miami picked up on that play, so it was a first down either way for the Chiefs. I’m more worried that Rice dropped the ball on that play too, though he at least made up for some of his mistakes with 7 catches for 88 yards on the day.

The Chiefs are using more play-action, so that is a positive change for the offense. But if Mahomes and Kelce aren’t playing at a high level, what exactly is this team right now? Guess we’ll find out soon with tougher games to come.

Jets at Lions: The Mentee Can’t Intercept His Mentor

Geno Smith has definitely energized the offense for the Jets, and he’s no stranger to playing shootouts with the Lions in Detroit as he did with Seattle for a few years in a row recently. He threw for 321 yards on 31-of-37 passing in this one, and yet it wasn’t even enough to get to overtime as the Lions held on for the 31-24 win.

Without a running game to support him, Smith put on a good effort to bring the Jets back to a tie before the defense gave up another touchdown drive. Trying to answer, the fifth and final sack of the day forced Smith to cough up the ball with 45 seconds left to end the threat.

But the story here is Aaron Glenn’s New York defense has now gone 20 games without an interception. Since 1940, the only other streaks longer than 10 games belong to the 2024 Giants (11 games) and 2024-25 49ers (14 games). This kind of drought is more possible in today’s game with relatively fewer picks overall, but it’s astonishing that any defense can go 20 games without a pick.

Pure dumb luck should get you one on a fortunate bounce like we see in the NFL every week. I thought Goff would give them one against his team’s former defensive coordinator, but he hasn’t thrown any yet this season.

The Jets will give it another shot in Chicago next week against some kind of backup quarterback with Caleb Williams out 3-4 weeks. At least the offense is watchable this year, but it won’t matter if the defense isn’t getting any takeaways.

Vikings at Buccaneers: Defund the NFC South Pt. 1

At least we know the reason Kevin O’Connell never wins a playoff game is because he uses up all his devil magic to win regular-season games like this. The Vikings are 3-0 but at what cost? Kyler Murray finished this game, Justin Jefferson didn’t, and the offense was messy with 16 points on 13 drives. The reality was even worse than that average as they had great field position for the last two field goals after the Buccaneers punted nine times and threw two picks on their final drives.

Baker Mayfield tried to make something happen on 4th-and-13 deep in his own end, no man’s land, and he dislocated his thumb on the play. That led to rookie Jalon Daniels throwing a Hail Mary interception to end the game, but things were decided before that.

There’s just not much inspired football from the Bucs as the running game wasn’t there, Mayfield took six sacks against the blitz of Brian Flores’ defense, and you’re seeing a coordinator lead his team while a coach like Todd Bowles seems pretty aloof to the team surrounding him going back to late last year.

The Bucs are 2-10 since the bye week last year after a 6-2 start. I believe it’s 12 straight games where they didn’t cover the spread either, so this is underachieving of the highest order. Even in the NFC South, 0-3 is a rough hole to climb out of, and we’ll see what the prognosis is on Mayfield, but his extension is looking like a disaster.

Panthers at Browns: Defund the NFC South Pt. 2

Two teams that are tough to get a read on so far. The Panthers were scoring so well in the first two weeks, then were sitting on four field goals late into the fourth quarter, making it look like Cleveland still had Myles Garrett or something.

The Browns had that horrible Week 1 loss to the Jaguars, but they have calmed down on defense, and Deshaun Watson has found some success with his new receivers. He threw two touchdowns to Harold Fannin in this one, including the game winner with 1:48 left.

I saw a game similar to this playing out, but I thought Bryce Young would lift the Panthers to a GWD in the end. He had his chance, but like in the playoffs against the Rams, Young quickly went four-and-out. Then with one more chance in the final minute to set up a field goal, he threw a desperation interception with 0:09 left.

Suddenly, the 2-1 Browns are hosting the 2-1 Steelers for first place in the AFC North this Thursday night. As for the Panthers, I’m not sure where they go from here.

Raiders at Saints: Defund the NFC South Pt. 3

To end our NFC South trilogy, it looked like another banner day for Tyler Shough and the Saints after he threw four touchdown passes to his tight ends to take a 27-16 lead in the third quarter.

But this was the opposite script of what we’ve seen from him in the NFL as that great start led to a disastrous finish with the Saints turning it over four times in the fourth quarter, including three from Shough (two strip-sacks and a pick). The Raiders really had him in shambles.

Meanwhile, Kirk Cousins had another efficient game with 3 touchdown passes, and the return of Brock Bowers (10-116-1) was a reminder that he is the best in the game going forward at the position.

The Raiders are 3-0 as rookie coach Klint Kubiak is cooking, but we don’t have to wait long to learn just how real and sustainable this start is. The Raiders play the Chiefs, Patriots, Bills, and Rams in the next four games. We’ll review then.

Patriots at Jaguars: The Quarterback, the Schedule, His Coach, and His Lover

Getting blown out on a day no one else did is a bad look for the Patriots as this 35-6 loss was a brutal outcome for all involved. Drake Maye should get the headlines as the quarterback who has struggled for his last seven starts going back to the 2025 playoffs. I knew he’d struggle in the playoffs against real defenses, and I knew he’d have a tougher September against a schedule that wasn’t kind.

But I never imagined he’d be this overwhelmed and bad as the raw numbers don’t even do it justice when you consider the fumbles he didn’t lose. But on Sunday, he had some bad luck where a ball just came right out of his hand for a fumble when he was hoping to throw. Not that he was throwing it well in this game. Meanwhile, Trevor Lawrence had a nice day and saved his best throws for the red zone to cap off several drives.

However, Lawrence took the weirdest dive I think I’ve ever seen when he had a sure touchdown for the taking. There were just under 9:00 left with the Jaguars up 28-6, and Lawrence slowed down after breaking through tackles to take a knee at the 1-yard line instead of scoring to make it 35-6.

After the game, he mentioned he probably should have scored, then joked about Tuten’s fantasy scoring. Tuten ended up running in the 1-yard touchdown on the next snap anyway, so no harm there. But just a weird decision all around. Are you really that worried about the clock? I know New England was down 28-3 in the third quarter, but you’re playing The Adulterer and The Schedule, not The LOAT x2. Just score, man.

All we’re missing is some $1M position on Kalshi that Lawrence would NOT score a touchdown to make this a gambling conspiracy. But the Jaguars got the easy win while the Patriots are going to have to step up all around with Buffalo next.

Seahawks at Commanders: That Resets Expectations

I thought Seattle had a defense that was so reliable that you could lean on this unit to get through a rough patch even with Drew Lock replacing Sam Darnold. But despite Darnold’s return on Sunday and the Commanders starting veteran Marcus Mariota for an injured Jayden Daniels (elbow), Sunday was the day’s big upset as the Commanders took it to them in a 33-31 final.

As it turns out, maybe Jaxon Smith-Njigba is the most consistent part of this team as JSN put up 10/128/2 on 14 targets with Darnold back. JSN is having another elite season, but is it coming even more at the expense of the rest of the offense? The running game certainly didn’t show up (17 carries for 39 yards), and Darnold threw a bad pick-six in the fourth quarter when it was 27-24. They tried chasing that touchdown back the rest of the game.

 But I’m not sure I’d freak out too much about the 27 points the defense allowed here. The Commanders had touchdown drives of 21 and 43 yards, which were set up on short fields by the offensive turnovers. The Commanders didn’t run well (32 carries for 82 yards), but it is troublesome that Mariota was efficient with three touchdown passes.

Then again, Mariota always seems to play well for the Commanders when he has to assume the job. I don’t know if it’s the kind of win that can prevent a lost season in Washington, but Dan Quinn needed this one badly and got it when we least expected it.

The loss ended up not hurting the Seahawks that badly since the Rams also lost on Sunday night.

Cardinals at 49ers: Brock Purdy MVP Campaign?

I’ve established the NFL has a Big 3 at quarterback in Mahomes, Allen, and Jackson. But if you’re going to pick who that No. 4 guy is, based on achievement, consistency, efficiency, impact, and the full body of work, I think 2026 is the season where Brock Purdy can earn that distinction.

He already had an MVP-caliber year in 2023 where schedule sequencing did him in. If the Baltimore game was in Week 4 instead of Christmas, and the game where he shredded the Eagles was on Christmas, he probably wins that MVP.

But I’m not going to talk about who deserves the 2026 MVP after Week 3. I’m just going to say that Purdy has probably been the most consistent, high-efficiency quarterback through Week 3, and if he can keep up a level of play like this while the schedule gets tougher and the injuries keep mounting up for the 49ers (Mike Evans left this game early), then the narrative will be there for a Purdy MVP campaign.

They won this game against Arizona by a final score of 36-30, and even though Arizona never had a possession down one score in the final three quarters, they kept the pressure on the 49ers. But Purdy kept answering, and while the play didn’t count as a touchdown because of a holding penalty on George Kittle at the end, Purdy had a 45-yard touchdown run that showed more athleticism with his legs than anything I’ve ever seen from the likes of Joe Burrow or Justin Herbert, the quarterbacks he’s competing with for that No. 4 spot behind the Big 3.

He finished that drive with a 20-yard touchdown pass to Kittle anyway, so no harm done on the penalty. The 49ers also started the day with a 3rd-and-12 designed lateral that got the ball in the hands of Deebo Samuel, who took it 80 yards for a touchdown. But since he never got a real catch in the game or even a target, he finished the game with 80 receiving yards and a touchdown on 0 catches (0/80/1) – a true stat oddity in NFL history.

The previous known record for receiving yards without a catch, at least based on available data, was 65 yards for Timmy Brown on the 1961 Eagles against the Steelers. I actually tracked down the video too and it’s funny.

It has to be alarming the rate of injuries that are piling up for the 49ers, but as long as Purdy is upright, you feel like he can make this work as he’s playing at a really high level right now in his fifth season.

Titans at Giants: Cam Ward, the Nonchalant Bust

With the Titans starting 0-3, I think these last few games show us why this team gets buried in the 1 PM Sunday window instead of any national games, why the Jets fired Robert Saleh, and why the Giants fired Brian Daboll. They are a terrible football team right now, and this 12-7 dud against the Giants featured two plays that could even define the Cam Ward era in Tennessee.

First, what is this nonchalant pocket walking when you’re down 12-0? Did you not see the hit Jaxson Dart took last week to end his season? You can’t possibly think this is a good idea to test the speed of NFL pass rushers by being so casual back there.

Maybe Mahomes could get away with that and even make it look cool by making a play, but that’s not for Ward. By the way, that drive ended with three straight incompletions from the Giants’ 7 for a turnover on downs. Fun.

Then when Ward needed to be more decisive and possibly scramble for all he can get with two timeouts in his pocket in the closing seconds of a 12-7 deficit, he decided to throw and threw a horrific game-ending interception.

I wanted to give Ward a fair shake and try to see the positives weighed against the negatives of his situation. But the guy just does nothing to elevate or excite his team. This is why the Titans were a flagship member of the Three Stooges of Who Gives a Fuck? Right there with the Washington franchise and then take your pick of Brady and Belichick’s AFC East Stooges (just not Buffalo anymore).

Blow it up in Tennessee and start fresh again in 2027 if this continues.

Next Week

Thursday night is Steelers vs. Browns with both teams having a winning record. We almost never see that. Colts-Commanders to start Sunday overseas is not a game that’ll get me up at 9:30 AM. But I’m sure I’ll catch the end of it.

The 1 PM slate has Patriots-Bills, Rams-Eagles, and Jags-Bengals. All interesting games where we’ll see if 2025 repeats itself in those matchups. Denver at San Francisco isn’t bad in the late window, but Chiefs at Raiders with both 3-0 is a first for that rivalry. We’ll see if the Chiefs can reestablish their AFC West superiority against a team that’s been scoring to start the year under Kubiak. Should be a good one.

Detroit at Carolina is not good for SNF on a day with so many better choices, but maybe the Panthers can get some scoring going. Saints-Falcons on MNF in the Superdome could be the game that actually launches one of these NFC South bums on the path to a division title. The only question is will they get to 9 wins or are we headed for another 2010 NFC West or 2020 NFC East situation? I’m warming up to the idea of Atlanta, but we need to see more from Penix.

2026 NFL Stat Oddity: Week 1

NFL Stat Oddity 2026
~ Scott ~ 7 Comments

I saved this Word document as “Close Encounters – Week 1” after forgetting I’ve given this weekly NFL recap a totally different name than the one I always wanted to use going back to even 2013. But this is Stat Oddity, and we may have just started the 2026 season with the highest-scoring Week 1 in the Super Bowl era.

Or maybe it’s the highest-scoring Week 1 Sunday since 1970 as we want to forget Wednesday and Thursday happened (and for good reason). Either way, the 10 new head coaches and 21 new offensive coordinators led to a lot of points but not a ton of dramatic finishes. We’ve had 7-of-15 games with a comeback opportunity (four successes), though three games did end with a game-sealing drive (Steelers vs. Falcons, Bengals vs. Buccaneers, and Giants vs. Cowboys), and that’s a stat I’d like to cover more thoroughly later this season.

While Week 1 isn’t everything, I think it’s important to make a good early impression and show that it is a new year and things are going to be different. The Cardinals, Ravens, and Giants got that memo. Not so much for the Browns, Titans, Chargers, Packers, and Cowboys. And despite Week 1 wins, I’m not sure the Bills, Steelers, Bengals, and Lions should feel overly confident just yet.

Let’s recap the 13 Sunday games from Week 1.

Bills at Texans: Game of the Week

If you watched DeMeco Ryans’ Houston defense take on Joe Brady’s Buffalo offense the last two seasons, then Sunday’s game was culture shock:

  • Josh Allen wasn’t 9-of-30 passing or dropped for 8 sacks this time; he was 20-of-29 for 334 yards, 2 sacks, and one of the most vertical games of his career with Dalton Kincaid (130) and D.J. Moore having huge games.
  • C.J. Stroud didn’t even play in last year’s win (Davis Mills did), but he had one of his better games here with 26-of-38 passing for 274 yards, 2 touchdowns, and no picks after his ugly postseason run in January stalled contract extension talks for this season.
  • Houston’s new running back, David Montgomery, had 79 total yards and scored 3 touchdowns.
  • It was 24-21 at halftime, a higher-scoring game than these teams have had in four full meetings in Houston in the Allen era.

But I hope this game doesn’t have a huge impact on the AFC playoff standings or the MVP race or Coach of the Year race, because the beginning and end were frankly ridiculous on both sides, and it exposed some of the reasons I still wouldn’t trust either team in January to win the conference and get to the Super Bowl.

Sure, the middle was back and forth, lots more scoring than usual for these teams when they match up, and exciting to watch. But that’s not a good sign for Buffalo’s defense in its first game without Sean McDermott that you’re letting Stroud light you up for 31 points, or that he was 9 yards away from scoring 38. Where’s all this aggression we’re supposed to see from new coordinator Jim Leonhard?

Allen started the game with a terrible 2-yard loss on 4th-and-1 in scoring territory, then they already resorted to their 3rd-and-long lateral play just to put together a 4-yard field goal drive to start the scoring after Stroud lost a fumble on the third play for Houston.

But the last 6:38 really fry me from both sides:

  • Down 31-30, Allen fumbles the snap and is fortunate to recover, leading to a quick three-and-out.
  • The Texans know a 1-point lead isn’t good for shit and they may not even see the ball again, and yet they do the ultra-conservative move of run/run/pass before their own three-and-out.
  • On what became a 96-yard game-winning touchdown drive for Buffalo, James Cook fumbled on the first run and Buffalo’s incredible fumble luck struck again as they recovered this one in the open field.
  • After getting to the Houston 34, Allen decided to throw a deep ball for the end zone with 1:48 left instead of working the clock to try to set up a field goal as the final snap, and it ended up being an atrocious dropped interception by Kamari Lassiter.

I’m not going to call it an obvious game-ender since the Bills still had three timeouts and enough time to get the ball back in a 1-point game. But it absolutely could have won the game for Houston, and he just dropped it. Then one play later he gets beat on the coverage for a touchdown to Josh Palmer. Then like clockwork, the Bills screwed up another 2PC, so they left themselves vulnerable at 36-31 to lose to a touchdown.

And since the Bills went for the chunk plays again, Stroud had plenty of time to make a legacy drive with 91 seconds, two timeouts, and 71 yards to go. We haven’t really seen him do this since that great drive to beat Tampa Bay in his rookie year, but the problem there is Stroud almost never pulls off these drives in the NFL. He’s now 2-11 at 4QC opportunities in his career.

But this could have been his moment in a big game to start the season on a high note. It looked like he might do it after getting the Texans to the 9-yard line with 25 seconds left after more breakdowns in Buffalo’s secondary. But then Stroud just ate a sack, lost 9 yards, and had to burn the last timeout. That’s the kind of play where your quarterback has to send the ball through the eighth row. Just inexcusable to take a sack.

Then two plays later with the game on the line from the 18, he does it again after a hurry-up snap, which never seem to work in the NFL anymore unless you can catch them with 12 men on the field. But I think the hurried snap led to panic in Stroud, and he coughed up the ball for his second fumble of the game to blow it.

So, I don’t think this game does anything to really move the needle for these teams when it comes to getting to the Super Bowl. I think they both showed some of their usual flaws with the Bills’ defensive shortcomings and tendency to make crushing mistakes at the worst times, and Stroud can’t be trusted on a GWD situation.

The best thing it does for Buffalo winning is it makes it less likely they’ll have to go back to Houston for a rematch in January.

Cardinals at Chargers: Upset of the Week

Every season there’s usually a big upset in Week 1, and it just so happens to be Cardinals at Chargers this year. I had a bad feeling, which is why I picked the Cardinals +9.5 ATS. My thought was the Cardinals moved the ball really well last year with Jacoby Brissett, they moved it as well as anyone in the 2026 preseason under new coach Mike LaFleur, and the Chargers were replacing Jesse Minter at defensive coordinator and could struggle there.

But I trusted Jim Harbaugh and his BFF Justin Herbert to win this one at home as they have much harder games to come. Mostly, I thought Mike McDaniel would have a big impact on the offense, allowing for more explosive plays now that Herbert has more receivers beyond Ladd McConkey, the two tackles were healthy, and McDaniel’s Miami offenses usually peaked in September. It felt like a slam dunk for a 30+ point outing for Herbert against one of last year’s worst defenses.

It never materialized. The Chargers never led, the Cardinals had the two longest gains of the game, and the Chargers didn’t run the ball well, had little going for them outside of Ladd McConkey (left injured too), and Herbert took three sacks as they beat up the interior of his line instead this time.

You have to love the play late in the game where three Chargers blocked one Cardinal while two free rushers got in on Herbert for a sack.

It was one of the worst performances for the Chargers in the Harbaugh era. Maybe the Cardinals are a surprise team this year, but I have a hard time believing they’re still not headed for last place in the best division. The Chargers just seemed really out of sorts on offense, and that Minter-less defense wasn’t impressive at all. Brissett’s only sack didn’t lose any yards, and they gave up a touchdown on the opening drive to rookie back Jeremiyah Love.

Arizona somehow has two wideouts playing better than Marvin Harrison Jr. now as Kendrick Bourne caught all 8 of his targets for 75 yards, but even MHJ had a 33-yard grab, the longest play of the game.

Remember when McDaniel was supposed to unleash Herbert’s arm? We’ll have to wait to see it I guess as it was a total dud in Week 1, and that screwed up a ton of bettors, including my best parlays on Sunday.

Does Madison Beer even know about Chargers BINGO and the level of curse she’s getting involved with here? It runs deep.

Bears at Panthers: Did Ben Johnson Know What He Had?

Ben Johnson might be a mad genius after all. Proclaiming this summer that he wants to break the 2013 Broncos’ single-season scoring record, his team went out and dropped 59 points in Carolina in Week 1. Not bad for someone coaching a team that many soured on and expected to be a prime regression candidate in 2026.

For the record, I picked the Bears to win 10 games and get a wild card berth in my predictions. But I’ll entertain the scoring record if they can drop a healthy number on Brian Flores’ Vikings in Week 2 as the Panthers just lack the key pieces for an adequate defense this year.

Still, 59 points on the road is a crazy number to start the season. In fact, the 96 combined points are the most in a season opener in NFL history. That’s also why I wish Johnson would realize his goal is not a good one as high-scoring juggernauts just don’t win Super Bowls. You need balance, and giving up 37 points to the Panthers is not a good sign for their defense.

Granted, putting pressure on the Panthers to keep scoring, the Bears were able to make the fourth quarter pretty much irrelevant, which was always going to be key this year after the way they won so late in games in 2025. That’s one way to avoid that. They also still forced three turnovers after leading the league in turnover differential, so that’s a good start on that front too.

They also did this with Colston Loveland not catching a pass, Rome Odunze catching two passes, and 32-year-old receiver Kalif Raymond led the way with 84 yards on 8-of-9 targets caught. Go figure, Johnson imports a Detroit receiver and he immediately leads the team in Week 1 after he’d be maybe fifth on your depth chart in terms of your best receiving option.

Throw in an elite running game that piled up 291 yards with Caleb Williams running for 65 yards and two touchdowns to complement two 100-yard rushers, and you have some real potential to light up the scoreboard all year. I don’t know about the scoring record, but they definitely can outdo what they did last year.

Either way, the Bears are going to be a lot of fun this year, and that’s one of the best things about Johnson hooking up with Caleb in Chicago. Making the Bears must-see TV for their offense for the first time ever basically.

Packers at Vikings: The Body Weight Rule Strikes Again in This Rivalry

Why does the body weight rule always seem to pop up in Packers vs. Vikings game the last decade?

It’s still hard to believe the Packers turned a 22-10 lead with 20 minutes left into a 39-22 loss. They knocked out Kyler Murray, who saw his first game with Minnesota end on an interception on his first throw, then a nasty hit to the head for a concussion. Enter Carson Wentz, who took three sacks against a defense still missing Micah Parsons (ACL), and some would say a few more should have counted.

It ended up being a controversial day for officiating in this one. I thought Jordan Love was having one of his best games ever until he wasn’t in the fourth quarter. Everything turned for the Packers after they declined the points on a 40-yard field goal that would have put them up 25-17 with 13:17 to play because the Vikings were offsides.

It’s a defendable call. You try for the 4th-and-1 at the Minnesota 17, you burn more clock if you convert it, then you have chance to make it a two-score game or at least get the shorter field goal eventually. Except Love did the sneak, and the virtual measurement said he didn’t get it, so the Vikings got the ball back down 22-17. I can’t really fault Matt LaFleur for that one.

Then on a weekend with some shaky game-winning drives (Bills), the Vikings really took the cake here. Typical I guess when Carson Wentz is the one coming off the bench to lead it, but Green Bay thought it stopped him on a 3rd-and-11 only to get caught for an illegal contact to extend the drive. Then they got another 3rd-and-3 stop on an incomplete pass only to get hit with a ridiculous roughing the passer penalty. Then a Wentz interception on third down in the end zone was negated by defensive holding.

Did Tom Brady host a LOAT seminar this summer that only Wentz, Burrow, and Allen had the details for? How to will the defense to commit multiple penalties on the same GWD? How to get the opponent to drop your picks and how to will your defense to recover fumbles?

Eventually, Aaron Jones scattered into the end zone for the go-ahead touchdown combined with the 2-point conversion pass to Justin Jefferson, who looks elite with any quarterback besides J.J. McCarthy (and I guess Max Brosmer).

Down 25-22, the Packers lost yards on three straight plays as Brian Flores kept blitzing Love, and he was sacked on back-to-back plays, including a fumble that set up the Vikings for a 1-yard touchdown drive to make it 32-22 with 4:48 left. Love was picked off on a deflection two plays later and the rout was on.

The Packers lost their sixth-straight game for the first time since the year before Brett Favre wound up in Green Bay. They’ve also blown their third multi-score lead in that time.

It’s a brutal way to lose a game you felt like you had control of for most of the day. But anymore, the Packers have shown they can blow just about any game. Makes you realize why teams usually just fire the coach who loses his last five games in a season…

Buccaneers at Bengals: Fumble Luck Sliders Maxed Out Already?

The 33-27 final score suggests a shootout, except in true Cincinnati fashion in the Joe Burrow era, it really wasn’t one. Both defenses scored a touchdown, but the Bengals’ new defense stole the show by forcing the Buccaneers into four lost fumbles (three by Baker on wild scrambles or strip-sacks). That means 50% of Tampa Bay’s eight drives ended with a lost fumble.

That’s impressive stripping, but it’s obviously not sustainable to force and recover that many fumbles, and Mayfield was still 23-of-28 passing for 216 yards in the game. The Bengals will have to get better there but at least they got the turnovers and also sacked Mayfield four times as his first game after the $55M AAV extension was a disaster.

Cincinnati’s offense moved the ball decently, doing its best on third downs (8-of-14). But it wasn’t a clean game for Joe Burrow as he threw another pick-six, something that plagued him in 2025 when he came back. That always seems to throw him off, being the perfectionist, the rest of the game too, but Evan McPherson was able to make a 58-yard field goal to save one drive for more points. Ja’Marr Chase was unusually quiet with 12 yards on the day.

But after a Mayfield scramble for a touchdown made it 33-27 with 3:19 left, the Bengals were aggressive in the four-minute offense and Burrow was able to put the game away with his receivers, converting three passes for first downs, then a 3rd-and-1 keeper to ice the clock for good.

The Bengals should feel encouraged about winning a game where Chase did little and the defense had all those turnovers. But Burrow can’t be happy about another pick-six, and he knows those turnovers aren’t always going to be for him on the other side every week.

As for the Bucs, the good news is they play in the NFC South where every team is 0-1, which is right on brand. I’d expect Baker to bounce back with a huge game against the Browns next week.

Cowboys at Giants: Is New York Ready for This? Dallas Was Not

I give the NFC East a hard time because I feel they’re usually pushed on us in national games because of the size of their media markets instead of the value of their product. Cowboys vs. Giants has been an especially egregious rivalry to feature in the last decade as Dak Prescott has dominated New York. After getting swept by the G-Men in his 2016 rookie season, Prescott won 14 straight starts in 2017-25 before leaving Week 18’s irrelevant game early, and the Giants went on to win that one.

That means for the first time since his rookie year, Dak just lost a game he finished against the Giants. It only involved the only game since 1991 (if not all of NFL history) where both teams converted over 72% of the time on third down, hence seven possessions for each team.

Sure, there was a time in the previous decade (2006-15) when this was good when it was Eli Manning vs. Tony Romo in entertaining games. But watching the Giants try to outscore Dak with Daniel Jones and Saquon Barkley just wasn’t that fun.

However, he may have new competition to deal with as Jaxson Dart opened his second season with one of his best games, leading the Giants to four touchdowns on six drives before running out the final 5:21 on the clock in a 28-20 game on his seventh possession. Keep in mind one of the only two stops the Cowboys had involved a Cam Skattebo fumble, so Dart was very protective of the ball and extremely efficient.

Dart showed patches of elite drive efficiency as a rookie, and that was impressive given he almost never had his best wideout (Malik Nabers) and best running back (Skattebo) together because of injuries. In his first full game with them, he did this as the revamped Dallas defense actually took some steps backwards with poor communication on the field. I also think adding Isaiah Likely at tight end is a big move as he can finally unleash himself from playing behind Mark Andrews in Baltimore. Matt Nagy gets a lot of grief, and I never bought for a second the Kansas City decline in 2023-25 was his fault, but he delivered in Game 1 as OC of the Giants.

John Harbuagh also found a lead he couldn’t blow, though both teams had some stupid penalties on the night. Dallas just had the last few critical ones like when Javonte Williams was penalized for taunting for celebrating a touchdown too early by pointing. That cost his team, which was down 14 points before his score, a chance to go for two early, then the Cowboys missed the 15-yards deeper extra point, keeping it a 28-20 game.

Then with the Cowboys down to two clock stoppages with 2:10 left, they pulled Dart down by the facemask at midfield, drawing another 15-yard flag and automatic first down.

After watching the other teams with second-year quarterbacks fail to impress on Sunday, maybe the Giants with Harbaugh and Dart are the one to watch for a breakout season in 2026. Guess we’ll find out next week when they play the 0-1 Rams how much of this is new leadership and better health vs. how much is playing a dumb team like Dallas.

Commanders at Eagles: Ho-Hum, the Eagles Won, and Stefon Diggs Is Still Dumb

It pains me to say this, but Jayden Daniels is getting close to unwatchable territory. The Eagles have a good defense, but he’s solved them before as a rookie (2024) when they were Super Bowl-worthy. But on Sunday, even with healthier weapons than he had last year, he really struggled to get the ball downfield, and that’s why it was 17-9 going into the fourth.

Fortunately, Daniels made some nice scrambles and smart throws to lead two late touchdown drives to keep this one competitive. Unfortunately, Stefon Diggs went full diva with a penalized celebration for humping the goal post after his first touchdown with the team. That cost the Commanders a shot at the game-tying two-point conversion with 9:59 left.

The Eagles answered with a touchdown to Dallas Goedert, his second of the day, as they found ways to score in both halves this time after they started to scare you with 2025 déjà vu after starting the second half with three straight three-and-out drives. But Jalen Hurts played one of his best games of the last two years, and Dontayvion Wicks stepped up with 73 yards and a touchdown. Like I said before the season, I actually think Hurts will be better without A.J. Brown this year.

Still, it wouldn’t be an Eagles game without a close finish, and after Daniels threw a touchdown to make it 24-22, the Eagles weren’t fooled at all by the little shovel pass attempt to tie it, so they stuffed that.

The Eagles recovered the onside kick and that was it. I get that the Eagles have a nice pass rush and secondary, so that’s how you end up with Terry McLaurin catching two passes for 14 yards. But rookie Antonio Williams was productive (4-64-1), and Diggs did well (4-55-1) penalty withstanding. They have a good mixture of weapons around Daniels this year, so we need to see better results as it’s hard to believe this guy was the uber-efficient and consistent rookie we saw in 2024.

Saints at Lions: Too Close for Comfort in Detroit

Not sure any win feels more like a loss in Week 1 than Detroit over the Saints. Like the Bengals, the Lions were a team hoping for an easier schedule and better health to key players will lead them back in the playoffs this year. It should have been a layup to get the Saints at home in Week 1 as a 6.5-point favorite, and despite some boring early action – save for a ridiculous call of an incomplete pass when it looked like Jared Goff fumbled the ball backwards – the Lions led 21-0 more than halfway through the third quarter.

Tyler Shough had some good moments last year as a rookie but they all came against losing teams. He was losing his shit for much of this game with numerous sacks and turnovers, but he shook it off and ended up throwing 56 passes for 410 yards and 3 touchdowns. Four straight scoring drives ended up tying the game at 24, and I agree with the decision to tie it on an extra point with 1:07 left (too much time).

In fact, the Saints got the ball back with 0:27 after forcing a three-and-out (not Jared Goff’s best day), and Shough almost worked the ball into game-winning field goal range. A 62-yard field goal is feasible these days, but Daniel Carlson was way off on his attempt, so we went to overtime.

I think the Saints were right to go on defense first as you want the ball last with four-down football and knowing exactly what you need. The Lions drove 70 yards for a touchdown, making it look easy with Amon-Ra St. Brown catching his second of the day, but the game is no longer over even in the regular season.

Shough had his chance, and he led another 80-yard touchdown drive with 1:34 left. You’re not playing for a tie in Week 1, so I agree with the decision to go for two here by Kellen Moore. Shough had to hold the ball, and the defense was good enough to force Lance out of the back of the end zone as I’m not sure he was going to be able to catch it in bounds.

The Lions held on for the 31-30 win in a game that looked like it might end with under 30 combined points for a while there. We’ll see where the Saints go from here, but a bit of a red flag for the Lions in nearly giving this one away. Tough game up next with the Bills too on Thursday night to christen their new stadium in a meaningful game.

Falcons at Steelers: A Mike Tomlin Tribute

For the first time since the 2006 season, the Pittsburgh Steelers played a game without Mike Tomlin as their head coach. But he may as well have been there spiritually as this was a struggle-fest against a third-string quarterback (Cooper Rush) that was right up Tomlin’s alley.

The reunion of Mike McCarthy with Aaron Rodgers led to the quarterback throwing his most passes in the first half of a game since 2020. But there wasn’t a lot of success down the field, the running game never materialized, and while newcomer Michael Pittman Jr. looked good (caught all 3 targets for 58 yards), Rodgers still stuck to his guys from last year as DK Metcalf, Pat Freiermuth, and Roman Wilson combined for 21 targets. Eleven more went to the running backs on those little swing passes Rodgers fell in love with (out of necessity) in 2025.

I would have loved to see rookie Germie Bernard get a target but he didn’t. I would have liked to see more Pittman Jr. usage. Maybe they were saving things cause they thought they could get past an injury-riddled Atlanta team – how the fvck are you this banged up in Week 1? – and can show more against New England next week. But I was kind of disappointed in the offense scoring 13 points and needing T.J. Watt to take over with two sacks and a brilliant pick-six to provide the winning margin in the end.

With that said, like last year, Rodgers’ arm still looks strong despite his age. He also threw some great passes through defenders down the middle of the field, and his receivers (Metcalf and Wilson particularly) let him down multiple times with drops. So, his numbers could have easily been better here.

But slumming it in a 13-10 game with a badly injured team starting Cooper Rush – swinging it out to Bijan Robinson was the only play he seemed to have – and still needing a Watt pick-six and Nick Folk to blow multiple field goals is such a nice tribute to Mike Tomlin.

Ravens at Colts: Unleashing the Triplets

After the Colts marched right down the field with seven straight passes from Daniel Jones to get a Jonathan Taylor touchdown run, you thought maybe this is going to be the first half of 2025 all over again.

Then the rest of the game happened, and now I’m thinking those first 4.5 minutes may be the peak of the 2026 Colts’ season. Zay Flowers caught a 49-yard pass on the first play from scrimmage for the Declan Doyle offensive era in Baltimore, and the Ravens were soon on their way to 41 points with huge games from Lamar Jackson (324 passing yards on 25 attempts), Flowers, and Derrick Henry (144 yards, 3 touchdowns).

That’s the “Triplets” approach after the Ravens lost some depth this offseason. But it could clearly work well. Unfortunately, Flowers left after putting up 150 yards and a touchdown after a hamstring injury, and those can always linger. Hopefully he’ll be okay as it will be harder to throw efficiently without that major piece available.

But it’s a good debut for Jesse Minter as the Ravens had no issues salting the game away, taking a 38-16 lead in the fourth quarter and winning 41-23. I didn’t see much from Daniel Jones in this one, but there will be easier games for the Colts to come. Just not enough easy ones to take them as serious contenders in this AFC.

Jets at Titans: Not the Revenge Game That Robert Saleh Had in Mind

About the only way Robert Saleh and Brian Daboll’s debut with the Titans could have gone worse was if Cam Ward threw a pick-six to the Jets after they had zero picks in 17 games last year. That streak added another game, but it didn’t even matter as they won 23-10 in a stinker of a game that should really crush the hopes of Titans fans that this year would be better.

I wouldn’t even call it very efficient offense from the Jets as they were only 2-of-12 on third down. But Geno Smith strung together some drives in his return to the team, took no sacks, had no turnovers, and they kept the ball for 38:46 as the Titans could barely run any plays.

Hell, maybe they should have thrown some picks and forced some things with Ward. On multiple occasions down three scores in the final 18:00, Saleh punted like a coward, including once from the New York 43. Calvin Ridley didn’t even have a target while new rookie wideout Carnell Tate had four catches for 38 yards.

Just a miserable day for the Titans, who appear to be directionless.

Dolphins at Raiders: And the Award for Worst Wide Receiver Room Goes To…

I’m still amused that they matched up the two worst wide receiver rooms in the league for rookie coaches in Week 1. But in the end, Klint Kubiak’s scheme won out because he could still get running back Ashton Jeanty properly involved with 147 yards from scrimmage and two receiving touchdowns. With Brock Bowers out, Jeanty led the team with 45 receiving yards.

Malik Willis was basically what you’d expect on a reworked team with little around him. He led them in rushing (39 yards), scored a touchdown that way, and was completing a fair share of passes early before taking 5 sacks and ending with 13 points.

Long year for the Dolphins to come, and I’d be surprised if the Raiders had many more wins too when the schedule gets much tougher. Even in this game, Kirk Cousins threw two picks and barely averaged 5 YPA.

Browns at Jaguars: If You Haven’t Already, Get Used to This, Cleveland

The Browns are used to terrible seasons as they were 0-16 in the last decade. But they could be a special kind of awful in 2026 after going with Deshaun Watson at quarterback and trading Myles Garrett for Jared Verse while installing a new defense sure to be worse than the one Jim Schwartz coordinated.

I’ve been building up Cleveland for the No. 1 pick in the draft with a season likely to be embarrassing on both sides of the ball, and they lived down to those expectations on Sunday with a 34-10 loss in Jacksonville that wasn’t even as close as the score suggests. In fact, Watson’s 46-yard touchdown pass to rookie Denzel Boston in garbage time gave him passable stats by the naked eye, but don’t let one meaningless score massage those numbers too much.

The Browns scored 3 points on their first 8 drives with Watson, which is terrible production as he wasn’t getting anything out of their only two receivers worth a damn in the last two seasons in Jerry Jeudy (2024) and Harold Fannin Jr. (2025).

The defense was absolutely shredded by Trevor Lawrence, who was 18-of-23 for 245 yards and 4 touchdowns to four receivers with Parker Washington (5-83-1) leading the way again.

Get used to more Cleveland blowouts like this in 2026. We’ll learn exactly where Jacksonville is at in Year 2 for Liam Coen with the Broncos, Patriots, Bengals, Eagles, and Texans up next before an early bye.

Next Week:

Should be plenty of points scored in Lions-Bills on Thursday night. Early Sunday has interesting games like Bengals-Texans, Steelers-Patriots, Vikings-Bears, and we’ll see if the Packers can stop the bleeding at the Jets. Could be another stunner in Arizona if the Cardinals get to a 2-0 start by beating Seattle, which will likely be without Sam Darnold (hip). Jags-Denver might be the main attraction at 4:25. Colts at Chiefs for SNF is a display of two teams who have slumped hard since their last meeting in November. Then the Rams suddenly have their hands full against the Giants without Myles Garrett.

2025 NFL Stat Oddity: Wild Card Weekend

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

The story all season for the NFL in 2025 was new contenders. The Chiefs, Ravens, and Lions didn’t even make the playoffs. The Eagles didn’t win a playoff game, so we’ll have a new champion.

We only have three of the same final eight teams from 2024 (Bills, Rams, and Texans). The Broncos, Seahawks, Patriots, Bears, and 49ers are all new in that round. This should have led to a crazy, unpredictable postseason, and if wild card weekend is any indication, we’re getting one of the craziest postseasons in NFL history.

All six games had a comeback opportunity, and the first four all had a game-winning touchdown scored by a trailing team after the two-minute warning, a single-postseason record. There’s never been a postseason with more than five fourth-quarter comebacks, so we have a great shot of tying or exceeding that here.

We’ve also already had 12 fourth-quarter lead changes in six games, another single-postseason record with seven games left. There have been entire postseasons where there wasn’t a single fourth-quarter lead change like 2020 (COVID year with empty stadiums) or 2005 (No. 6 seed Pittsburgh won).

I predicted Eagles over Bills in Super Bowl 60 on Friday night, and that’s already halfway wrong after Philadelphia’s title defense ended in somewhat predictable fashion. The 49ers’ insane 22-year streak of either making the NFC Championship Game (7x) or missing the playoffs with a non-winning record (15x) is still alive and just has to get through Sam Darnold next week to continue for the 23rd year in a row.

But that’s next week. First, let’s recap the weekend, which I think you can argue is the best wild card weekend in NFL history. I don’t think any one game this weekend would make a top 5 list of NFL wild card playoff games, but the collective competitiveness of the weekend and the way these teams were just matching scores (for four games) in the fourth quarter was crazy to watch.

Something truly memorable from a weird season to this point.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Texans at Steelers: Same Old Steelers with Their Old Quarterback

The Steelers lost their seventh playoff game in a row as DeMeco Ryans has already matched Mike Tomlin’s last 15 seasons in playoff wins (3) in just three years on the job in Houston. What a job it’s been too. He just won a playoff game by 24 points on the road despite his quarterback, C.J. Stroud, turning the ball over three times with five fumbles (two lost).

But that 30-6 score is going to be one of the most misleading finals in postseason history. This was a 7-6 game at halftime and going into the fourth quarter. It was only 10-6 Houston when Pittsburgh foolishly called another run on 2nd-and-10 that lost 2 yards as they never got a ground game going all night.

Then on 3rd-and-12, Rodgers was buried in the backfield, coughed up the ball, and the Texans returned it for a touchdown. You could definitely argue there was a blow to the head that made his helmet move that could have been called for roughing the passer to negate the turnover and touchdown.

If this is Rodgers’ last playoff game (or game period), maybe it’s fitting it ends with a fumble-six after an uncalled penalty, shades of no facemask call on him in Arizona in the 2009 wild card loss. Actually, his last pass of the night here ended up being a fourth-down pick-six as the Texans have now scored six return touchdowns in just five playoff games in the Stroud-Ryans era. It’s possible his last pass is a playoff pick-six after his last pass as a Packer was a game-ending interception at home in a game with playoff implications against the Lions.

It usually never ends well. For the Steelers, nothing has ended well in the last decade, but I’ll say this one was a little different since you really can’t blame the defense. Sure, they had poor plays on third downs all night, but it was a 10-6 game with 13:00 left. Do something on offense. The Steelers got a Stroud fumble at the Houston 21 and moved the ball 4 yards before settling for a field goal.

They stuck to their guns, which means they have no identity on offense. They had some good plays early to D.K. Metcalf before he dropped a big pass and shut down the rest of the night. Pat Freiermuth’s usage all season was criminal, but that’s what happens when your QB is so WR-centric and your OC is in love with Jonnu Smith.

The Steelers even led 3-0 after the first quarter, a big departure from their usual 21-0 deficit in the playoffs. But the Texans still got to 30 points, extending their record streak to 7 playoff games allowing 28+ points. They also set a record with a fifth-straight playoff loss by double digits.

The Houston defense is great, but the Steelers had them on their heels early and just got worse by the drive. No touchdowns scored. It was actually better when the Steelers would lose a 45-42 playoff game at home. At least the offense could score after some mistakes. This was impotency.

This team was false hope all year. They’d look good for a half against a contender, then they’d get crushed after halftime against the Seahawks, Chargers, Packers, Bills, and now the Texans.

And the sad part is nothing really changes until they fire Tomlin and get lucky with a high draft pick on a quarterback. That’s the only way you’re going to get fundamental change in Pittsburgh.

I think 600 words will suffice, because what more could you say at this point? Same old Steelers.

Packers at Bears: Finally, This Rivalry Is Worth Watching in Prime Time

The 2025 Packers-Bears just gave us the best trilogy since, what, Nolan’s Batman? For years we had to endure this dated rivalry in an island game, but with the arrival of coach  Ben Johnson in Chicago, we got three great games late in the season with the Bears winning both meetings at Soldier Field in dramatic comeback fashion as they’ve done all year.

I’m not sure if Johnson’s vitriol for the Packers stems from his Lions days (jealousy?), or if it’s just manufactured bravado to endear himself with the Chicago community. But he may have ended Matt LaFleur’s time in Green Bay or at least limited it to one more season at best after a total collapse from the Packers, who lost their last four regular-season games before blowing a 21-3 lead on the road, and a 15-point lead in the fourth quarter (only the fourth time that’s happened in the playoffs after Roger Staubach’s comeback off the bench in 1972, the 2002 49ers vs. Giants, and Super Bowl 51).

The wild part is, much like John Harbaugh losing his Baltimore job on the swing of a kicker’s 44-yard field goal, it’s not like Johnson badly outcoached LaFleur in this game. In fact, some curious decisions by Johnson on fourth downs (Dan Campbell’s protégé) helped lead to the Bears trailing 21-3 at halftime. Green Bay kicker Brandon McManus also cost the team 7 points by missing three makeable kicks.

The Packers, who never won another game after Micah Parsons tore his ACL in Denver, wasted one of Jordan Love’s best games of the season. He didn’t turn the ball over, he distributed the ball very well to his wideouts with four of them catching a touchdown, including the first of the year for rookie Matthew Golden after they got him in space to show off his speed. Love did this with Josh Jacobs not producing a damn thing on the ground after halftime, which is part of why the Packers became ineffective and kept giving the ball back to the Bears to make this 18-point comeback.

Caleb Williams looked like a young quarterback going through first-playoff start jitters. He threw two interceptions on fourth downs, one of which shouldn’t have been caught as it cost the Packers 27 yards in field position.

But the Bears were hanging in there at 21-6 in the fourth quarter, then proceeded to catch quite a few breaks. Williams nearly lost a fumble on a 3rd-and-10 sack, but the Bears recovered the ball and were able to kick the 51-yard field goal to make it 21-9.

After Love was called for his second grounding penalty of the half, the Bears scored a touchdown to make it 21-16. The Packers overcame some mistakes and made it 28-16 on Golden’s great touchdown with 6:36 left. That should have been a dagger, but these 2025 Bears don’t know when to die.

But it’s funny how the key turning point of the game was the result of the Bears not being well prepared on offense, which should be Johnson’s expertise area, and getting bailed out for it to save the game. Chicago faced a 4th-and-3 at midfield with 5:37 left. Hurrying to get the snap off, the Bears snapped the ball over Williams’ head, which would have been a disastrous, likely game-ending turnover on downs.

But the Bears were penalized for a false start, setting up a 4th-and-8, and given a second chance, Williams made the throw of his career to find Rome Odunze for 27 yards. Game on from there.

It could have been curtains without the false start, so that’s how another Chicago mistake actually saved the game. The Bears turned that drive into 8 points and it was 27-24 with 4:18 left. But then it was LaFleur’s turn to ruin the game for his team with infuriating timeout usage. He burned one after an incomplete pass brought up 3rd-and-10, then the Packers immediately suffered a delay of game coming out of it anyway. Inexcusable.

That’s when McManus missed the 44-yard field goal with 2:51 left. Not the biggest miss of the game for him if you ask me. He missed the extra point after Golden’s touchdown that would have made it 28-16 with 6:36 left. That would have meant the Bears had to score two touchdowns instead of possibly settling for 8+3 or 3+8.

The Bears ended up scoring 2 touchdowns anyway, but look at the impact that point had. Instead of trailing 31-28 or 29-28 after Chicago’s last score, it was a 31-27 deficit, meaning Love had to get a touchdown with 1:36 and one timeout left instead of a field goal.

Green Bay’s usage of that final timeout was also questionable, then as fate would have it, an injury led to a 10-second runoff, making things even harder. Love almost had Golden for a touchdown on one play, but then he fumbled the final snap and had to fire a pass to the end zone that fell incomplete, and the Bears extended their record with a seventh win this season after trailing in the final 2:00.

Going into this game, I would have thought the rumors of LaFleur getting fired with a loss were BS. But after seeing the way it played out and thinking about all the big-game failures he’s had in seven years, the Packers might be wise for a change of leadership here.

It probably wasn’t going to be a Super Bowl season anyway for the Packers after losing Parsons, but that second half was coaching malpractice. It wouldn’t be so crazy for LaFleur to be moving on to another team for 2026 now.

As for the Bears, what more can you say? Caleb Williams is exactly the reason why a stat like EPA per play isn’t the end-all, be-all of stats for quarterbacks. Can you get the job done and score when you have to no matter how many downs or snaps it takes? He seems to be pretty good at that, and some of the throws are just incredible. Still misses his share of easy ones, but he can get better with that.

It should be quite the game with the Rams next week, another new matchup. The Rams have already allowed five game-winning drives, so Williams might have a shot at tying the single-season 4QC/GWD records with eight each.

Bills at Jaguars: The Trevor Lawrence Legacy Game Goes as Expected

The Buffalo pass defense. Like I’ve been saying for over a month, the Buffalo pass defense in a playoff field without Patrick Mahomes is why this team can get to the Super Bowl even without home games or a good run defense. They just have to stop some unproven quarterbacks in crunch time, and Lawrence was the first on their list, bringing the season totals to 8 saves and 0 blown leads for the Bills.

Oh, there were lead changes in the fourth quarter just as there were in all the early games this weekend. But when it came time for the final drive and Lawrence had a solid minute to get a kicker with incredible range into position, he immediately threw a pick to end the season.

But I think the game was lost well before that. The Jaguars should have had a run-heavy approach in this one. How does Tuten rip off runs of 20, 14, and 13 yards to end the first quarter and get one more carry the rest of the game? How?

They put their eggs in Lawrence’s basket, and while he settled down later in the game and made some nice throws, he killed them early with a pick that led to a 1-yard field goal drive for the Bills. He killed them when he ducked under a defender and his shin was down short on a 4th down in the red zone when the Jags had a chance to go up 14-3 after the Bills fumbled a kickoff.

It was evident early that Lawrence wasn’t on his A game, but the Jaguars didn’t do enough to test that run defense of the Bills. Also, the Jags were gifted a 54-yard field goal attempt before halftime that I’m not sure they deserved by beating the clock (did they really?), and Cam Little, after all the praise for his record-long kicks, missed it. That hurts in a 3-point loss.

But the Bills had a good offensive plan to throw those little short passes to Shakir to pace the offense on a day where James Cook was bottled up by the No. 1 run defense. Maybe a few too many Josh Allen designed runs when he’s banged up, but they made it work. And of course with the season on the line, he went to the Tush Push again, and this time he was pushed ahead for a 10-yard gain on 4th-and-1 with the season on the line.

That play was so weird to me. You obviously want to stop them since it’s fourth down. But once he got moving like that, do you just let them score? It was 24-20, so Buffalo absolutely needed a touchdown, but what if you stop them at the 5? You can still get a stop there to win the game. Once he got to the 1, why not just let him go the distance? Weird play.

Then Buffalo was stuck in no man’s land since you really don’t want to risk wasting a down with a bad play and getting a penalty or something stupid to push you back. Ideally, you’d run clock there and score on 2nd down with the sneak, leaving the Jaguars less than 20 seconds to work with. But they scored on first down, whether by design or not, and the Jaguars were going to get the ball back in a 27-24 game with 59 seconds left.

But you get a wild tipped ball that’s intercepted, and just like that, the season is over for the Jaguars. To evoke Dan Campbell, this may have been their best shot too in this AFC. But that’s one road win and one postseason game-winning drive in the books for Allen, who had neither of those things in his career before Sunday.

Next up is Denver as I predicted it’d be, and I think they have a very good shot of winning that one too because of their pass defense against Bo Nix. Again, someone has to be willing to run to take this team down, and someone better get Allen to the ground on defense. That’s why Houston is really the danger team for the Bills, but they may end up avoiding them here.

So far, so good.

Rams at Panthers: Stafford with MVP-Style Revenge Against Carolina

I kept saying the spread (Rams -10.5) was always too high for a team that’s been shaky in the last month like the Rams, who have already blown games as a huge favorite along with two huge leads in the second half against the Eagles and Seahawks. They already lost in Carolina in Week 13.

The Rams prevailed 34-31 this time, but it did show why they’re a shaky bet to go the distance. The short-yardage runs, the fourth-down decision making, the defensive play as of late, and some turnovers from Stafford and the offense are not leading to dominant play late in the season.

In this game, Stafford completed his first eight passes with Puka Nacua doing whatever he wants. But then Stafford hit his hand on a helmet and wasn’t the same. Nacua dropped a 46-yard touchdown going into halftime, and the Rams had a huge turnover on downs moment late in the second quarter. I get why McVay went for it; to control the rest of the clock and go into halftime up 13-17 points. But by not getting it, the Rams only led by 3.

Bryce Young was more than solid in his first playoff game. Certainly a few plays he’d like to have back, but the running game wasn’t there for him, and he made some clutch throws in big spots to finish with 264 passing yards.

Young did lead two go-ahead touchdown drives in the fourth quarter, but the defense was unable to hold up. They had a chance at a Stafford interception on a mix-up with Nacua with just under 12:00 left, but Puka made a play on the ball to force an incompletion on a drive that ended with a touchdown instead.

But when the Rams got the ball back with 2:34 left, it was all calmness and precision from Stafford on the 71-yard march to win the game. He reportedly told Davante Adams that it was time to go rip their hearts out, which he did. He threw a 19-yard touchdown to Colby Parkinson with 38 seconds left.

Young got the ball back in a 34-31 game with all three timeouts, so that gives you access to the entire playbook and you can use every square inch of the field with no concern for the clock. However, he unfortunately saved his worst drive for the last as the Panthers couldn’t gain a yard, and Young threw four straight incompletions to end the game on downs.

Horn had a chance at a low catch on fourth down, but by that point, you’re down to under 7 seconds and still not in field goal range, so the real failure of the drive came well before the final snap. Just not the execution we saw from Young in these moments in the regular season, and it cost them at the end here.

But it was still a great effort for an 8-9 team that was the biggest home underdog in NFL playoff history. Scary times for the Rams, but they prevailed and are moving onto Chicago.

49ers at Eagles: Repeating Is Hard

The 2025 Eagles were able to end a long drought and repeat as NFC East champions, but the only other repeat they’re going to end 2025 with is reminding us that this offense played half-assed football all season going back to opening night against Dallas when they only scored a field goal after a great first half.

The Eagles repeatedly did this all season, so it’s no surprise their season ended in this fashion. They scored two touchdowns on their first three drives, then never found the end zone on their last seven possessions. A.J. Brown bitched about targets all year and finished this game with 3 catches for 25 yards and some bad drops/incompletions. He might have played his last game with Philly.

Meanwhile, the 49ers hung in there and made it work without Ricky Pearsall, then they lost tight end George Kittle to a torn Achilles early in the game. Demarcus Robinson set the tone early with a 61-yard catch-and-run in stride on the opening drive, which he finished with a touchdown on his way to 111 yards.

Brock Purdy wasn’t perfect with a couple of interceptions, but he played well to get to 262 yards and 2 touchdowns without Kittle and Pearsall. They also couldn’t run the ball for much (16 carries for 51 yards). But on the first play of the fourth quarter, they brought back a trick play from Super Bowl 58 with Jauan Jennings throwing a 29-yard touchdown that required a great diving catch from Chrisitan McCaffrey to take a 17-16 lead. Both teams missed an extra point in the game (Eagles early, 49ers late).

The Eagles didn’t have Lane Johnson at tackle, which hurt as there were some big holding penalties that killed drives in the second half. They were able to turn Purdy’s second pick into a field goal drive that took a 19-17 lead with 8:00 left. But a defense that’s wilted in some fourth quarters blew a fifth lead this year. Purdy led a 66-yard march, finishing on third down with a 4-yard touchdown pass to CMC for a 23-19 lead with 2:54 left after the extra point was missed.

The 49ers probably should have gone for 2 there as 4 vs. 5 is little difference, and at least if you’re up 6 points, the other team might miss the extra point as we’ve seen Jake Elliott do this year.

Anyways, it was on Hurts to deliver a game-winning drive, which would have been his first in the postseason. It was nearly a four-and-out drive after a horrible drop by Brown on third down. But Dallas Goedert cleaned it up with 15 yards on fourth-and-5. However, once the drive reached the San Francisco 20, things stalled out. The poor pass rush for the 49ers got home for a 1-yard loss on a sack, then Hurts threw three straight incompletions to end the season for the Eagles.

On 4th-and-11, Hurts threw to Goedert with three defenders around him and it was closer to a pick than anything. I’m not sure he had any real other options on the play, but that’s season over there. The 49ers pulled it off.

I was going to reply to a tweet I saw before kickoff about the bad EPA rankings for the 49ers’ defense this year, and I keep hearing the sentiment that they’re a bottom-5 defense, which doesn’t jive with their ranking of 13th in points and 16th in points per drive allowed.

Again, this is an example of how EPA can miss some fundamental information. That’s a stat that can get juiced and heavily inflated by splash plays like sacks and turnovers. So, it’s not a surprise the 49ers don’t look good in EPA when they don’t get many splash plays. But they must be doing something right if they’re usually not getting destroyed on the scoreboard.

Throw in the struggles of the Eagles to play a 60-minute game on offense, and the 49ers always had a good shot of pulling this one out as a low-scoring game you win in the fourth quarter. That’s exactly what happened too.

They can do the same thing in Seattle, a team they’ve held to 13 points in both meetings this year. But we have all week to build up that one.

The Eagles are done. No repeat for them like I foolishly picked on Friday night. But I thought the defense would be better than this as I didn’t see getting killed by Robinson and a touchdown pass from Jennings leading to the end for this team.

Finally, I don’t think it’s hindsight to question why Nick Sirianni didn’t try to get that No. 2 seed last week by beating Washington. Wouldn’t you rather face a banged-up Green Bay team that’s lost four in a row? A team you already beat in a low-scoring game instead of a 49ers team that is well coached and still has some elite players, and they never seem to go one-and-done in the postseason. They can score too with Purdy, so yeah, I think that was a tactical error by Sirianni.

Not to mention getting home-field over Chicago if you’re the No. 2 seed. I didn’t like that decision to rest last week, and I really don’t like it now after what we saw from the Eagles on Sunday.

Chargers at Patriots: Roman, Lend Me Your Ears So I Can Whisper “You’re Fired”

The last NFL team to score 3 points in a playoff game before the Chargers on Sunday night was the Ravens in Buffalo during COVD. Who was the offensive coordinator? Greg Roman. I think we’ve seen enough of him here, and while it’s clearly not all his fault, he’s wasting Justin Herbert’s talent and hasn’t gotten any good results in the big games the last two years. I think they should make him the sacrificial lamb and fire him over this one after the Chargers scored 22 points in the final three games of the season.

Moving onto the quarterback, these Herbert playoff appearances keep getting worse. Now 0-3, I actually think he was better last year when he threw four interceptions (one dropped, one down 20) in Houston compared to this impotent performance with 3 points making the 2025 Patriots look like the 2003 Patriots. The weather wasn’t even an issue.

I also think that Houston game might be messing with him mentally, because how do you not pull the trigger to McConkey on this play early?

You can’t be too worried about throwing picks in a game like this. That’s how you end up scoring 3 points and just running or taking sacks all night because you’re scared of putting the ball 10 yards down the field. Terrible mindset to have in a playoff game.

The thing is the pass protection wasn’t really that bad until it was 16-3 in the fourth quarter. Then Herbert was swarmed and engulfed. But the damage had already been done earlier on the first seven drives.

As for Drake Maye in his first playoff game, he was bad. He was inaccurate against a zone defense. He turned into a sack merchant again, going down 5 times (lost over 6 yards per sack too this time so he wasn’t even mitigating the losses this week), and he should have had two lost fumbles, and the second one could have been an easy touchdown for the Chargers that would have made it an interesting 16-10 game with time. Most of his big plays were blown coverage or huge YAC on a checkdown to Stevenson.

Just not impressed, and objectively I don’t know how people can praise a 16-point performance like this from a quarterback. But it was his first playoff game, and he at least did better in the second half after a poor first half. Just interesting to note that in his second NFL win over a winning team, he had a 6-3 lead at halftime in both games (this and at Buffalo).

There’s also the fact that Vrabel and New England are used to these low-scoring playoff wins.

What’s next, two special teams touchdowns against Houston while Josh Dobbs has to come off the bench and direct a win? Then beating the Rams in the Super Bowl with 13 offensive points? Or is that only reserved for Brady?

Neither the Texans nor Patriots allowed a touchdown this week, so who knows what to expect from that one. But based on this game, I wouldn’t expect a ton of scoring from Maye in the passing game.

But the Chargers are in a tough spot as they need a new OC and they’ll probably lose their DC (Jesse Minter) to a head coaching Job. I’m not sure you can ever trust Herbert in one of these games until he proves he can get the job done. And they’re always on the road because they can seemingly never win this division. The Chiefs won’t be down for long, and the Broncos have a lot of good players and a coach on par with Harbaugh.

The 2025 Chargers had that built-in excuse with the offensive tackles going out, but I’m surprised at how little of a factor that was for three quarters on Sunday. Just played a lot of bad, passive football and that can be even worse than getting aggressive and throwing some picks.

At least they scored more points last year in Houston.

Next week: I always say the divisional round is the best weekend of the NFL year, but it’s got a high bar to clear after what we just saw. It’s also going to try to do it by introducing the top seeds, Seattle and Denver, into the mix. We’ll see if the Texans can sack the Patriots, and Rams vs. Bears could be the shootout of the postseason.

NFL 2025 Wild Card Predictions: Path to Super Bowl 60 Edition

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

The 2025 NFL season has been so hard to predict that I wish I could find a way to write off all 14 playoff teams. The good news is 13 of them will lose in the next month, and this is the moment where I make that prediction for the last team standing.

There are so many teams that I feel like you can immediately write off for one huge reason that will inevitably doom them in trying to win 3-4 playoff games in a row:

  • Panthers – They’re just not good enough.
  • Patriots – Schedule merchants who aren’t ready to go the distance
  • Steelers – Tomlin’s playoff defense will eventually implode
  • Texans – Defense is great but that offense is going to tank them eventually
  • Chargers – Offensive line won’t hold up for 4 road wins
  • Broncos – Stagnant offense that waits until the 4th quarter to score will doom them
  • Bears – Way too reliant on D/ST fueling late-game comebacks
  • Packers – Not enough horses to go on No. 7 seed run without Parsons and Kraft

That leaves six teams who I feel can win it all even though they have a glaring issue that concerns me. But it’s something I feel the rest of the team can cover up for a game or two that they can maybe squeak by.

  • Bills – Run defense has been playing better and not sure who in the AFC can really run wild on them.
  • Jaguars – A shame one has to lose Sunday but this could either be Trevor Lawrence’s chance to be Eli/Flacco/Foles or he implodes with too much responsibility
  • Seahawks – I don’t trust Sam Darnold but he probably has the best situation going for him and he almost beat the Rams after throwing 4 INTs because of that team support.
  • 49ers – Still think a core that’s been to two Super Bowls can get back home for SB 60 but the injuries (Bosa, Warner, Pearsall, etc.) make it so tough on the road.
  • Eagles – Yes, their offense should probably have them in the first category, but this is why track record matters and I’m still willing to give the 2-time NFC champs with the reigning SB MVP a shot (defense is better than a year ago too).
  • Rams – Probably played as well as any team has all year but they’ve blown five games and struggle to close and it’s usually the little things (short yardage runs, FG kicking, 4th down stops on D, etc.).

So how do I see it playing out? Many, many ways if I’m being honest. But if you want one version of my vision today, here it goes:

Rams take care of the Panthers, Packers eliminate the Bears, and the Eagles take out the 49ers this weekend in the NFC.

Bills outlast the Jags, the Chargers go chargering in New England, and the Steelers finally win one for Tomlin to take out the best defense.

Seattle survives a scare from Green Bay in the 7-1 matchup, and the Eagles find a way again to deny McVay and Stafford.

Buffalo eliminates Denver for the second year in a row, and the Steelers lose a game they should have won in New England.

Vic Fangio puts Sam Darnold in a blender and he implodes against that secondary like everyone expected him to do.

The Bills do it to the Patriots again at Foxboro as Josh Allen has his first playoff game-winning drive while Maye can’t close again.

Super Bowl 60 is a rematch from Week 17: Bills vs. Eagles but in good weather. However, the Bills’ lack of wideouts hurts them against that defense again, and the Eagles find a way to repeat despite hearing all year how their offense is garbage. But don’t sleep on that defense, and I still think Jalen Hurts has the ability to rise to the occasion with the talent around him to make some necessary plays that he didn’t really have to do last postseason. This time, he gets it done and the Eagles do in fact pull off the repeat.

I don’t love it. In fact, I’d rather see something like Texans vs. 49ers since I bet on it over a month ago, or maybe the Packers do the unthinkable and go to the Super Bowl as the first No. 7 seed after I picked them the last two years to do so.

But this is where I am. I’m also very open to the Rams getting it done by actually closing games out, which would mean getting rid of the Eagles in the divisional round and getting some revenge on Darnold for that blown 16-point lead in what was the game of the year for the regular season. Jacksonville winning this weekend would also throw a huge wrench in my vision, but if that happens, then I really do believe Lawrence can do the Eli/Flacco/Foles thing here.

We’re overdue for one of those anyway, aren’t we?

NFL Wild Card Picks

Already let the cat out of the bag with this weekend’s picks, but for spread purposes, here are my wild card picks:

  • Rams 26, Panthers 20 – That spread (Rams -10.5) is too high but the Rams move on
  • Packers 24, Bears 17- Snow game? Run the ball, GB.
  • Bills 24, Jaguars 20 – Maybe lower scoring than expected, but I think the Bills will have more balanced offense and Lawrence will have a big pick.
  • Eagles 20, 49ers 17 – Lowest scoring game of the week.
  • Patriots 23, Chargers 20 – Dicker the Kicker choke incoming? Does Maye have a Tuck Rule moment in him for his first playoff game?
  • Steelers 26, Texans 23 – More points than expected as Aaron Rodgers finds a way to get it done against the top defense.

This Week’s Articles

Guess I really wrote this ass-backwards this week, but here are links to my final QB rankings of 2025 (won’t be doing anymore until July), Fraud Alert Ratings for 2025 playoff teams, and about 12,000 words in full previews on every Wild Card game.

2025 Final NFL Quarterback Rankings: Matthew Stafford Is the MVP
2025 NFL Fraud Alert Rating: Should We Trust the Bears and Patriots in the Playoffs?
2025 NFC Wild Card Preview: Are We Sleeping on the Philadelphia Eagles Repeating?
2025 AFC Wild Card Preview: Without the Chiefs and Ravens, Things Feel Wide Open This Year
Scott’s Seven NFL Picks: 2025 Wild Card Weekend

2025 NFL Stat Oddity: Week 18

~ Scott ~ 1 Comment

After a Week 18 finale that saw nine comeback opportunities, the 2025 regular season is in the books. I can’t recall a crazier season than this one with none of the Chiefs, Ravens, or Bills winning their division, and the first two didn’t even have a winning record.

Seven new division winners is a record, and somehow the only team that repeated (Eagles) is from the division that never repeats (first time since 2004).

We might see a Trevor Lawrence vs. Sam Darnold Super Bowl at this point. That’s why I was worried my preseason predictions would be the worst they ever were, but they weren’t. In fact, by being off by an average of 2.72 wins, I’ve had five seasons since 2013 that were less accurate.

One difference this year is I only got one team exactly right, and it was the Steelers finishing 10-7. Barely. But I only had five teams where I was off by 5+ games, so that’s not too bad.

Onto the playoffs.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Seahawks at 49ers: The No. 1 Seed

It didn’t necessarily look like a battle for the No. 1 seed in the NFC, because the Seahawks and 49ers repeatedly made mistakes to keep the score so low in this 13-3 final. In fact, the game set history for the fewest points ever in the NFL despite both quarterbacks completing over 70% of their passes and both running games averaging over 4.0 yards per carry:

But the Seahawks prevailed because their defense was the best unit in the game. It helps when the 49ers didn’t have Trent Williams or Ricky Pearsall, but the 49ers scored their fewest points in a game under Kyle Shanahan since they managed just a field goal in his debut against Carolina way back in 2017.

Brock Purdy was held to 127 yards on 19 completions, and Christian McCaffrey had a rough night with 23 yards on 8 carries. He also tipped a pass deep in the red zone for a killer interception in the fourth quarter when the 49ers trailed 13-3.

Speaking of which, the 49ers are now 0-50 when trailing by 8+ points in the fourth quarter under Shanahan. I’ve seen the stat posted as 0-47, but I think that misses a couple playoff games, and it’s possible Stathead has a data error for a game that doesn’t belong. But I know the 0 wins is 100% accurate as Shanahan’s teams have never been able to make these comebacks, and butterfingers on a pick like that won’t help.

Sam Darnold got through a big game without any turnovers, though he did nearly lose a fumble and got lucky on a sideline throw where a defender only got one foot in bounds. But he was okay outside of taking a brutal sack on 1st-and-goal at the 1 on the opening drive before misfiring on fourth-and-goal. His running backs absolutely dominated with 230 yards from scrimmage between the duo.

The Seahawks missed field goals from 47 and 26 (WTF?), so that kept the score low too even though they dominated the game in first downs (23-9) and yards (361-173).

It means Seattle has a week off and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs, something they had in their three previous Super Bowl trips (2005, 2013-14). The 49ers will have to travel and win some road games if they want to get back to Levi’s Stadium for Super Bowl 60.

The 49ers’ stock definitely takes a hit from this game, but I’m still not sold on the Seahawks as a Super Bowl team. But we have time to get into that the next two weeks or more.

Ravens at Steelers: Game of the Weekend

I can tell my Steelers fandom isn’t what it used to be, because I should have been a basket case watching that fourth quarter, which was as dramatic as any game this season with everything on the line.

But I was almost resigned to the fact of a Baltimore win, and I had a good vision for the playoffs with a Baltimore win, including a potential AFC Championship Game between the Bills and Ravens.

But that’s all moot now after Aaron Rodgers delivered one of his most clutch comebacks in his long career given the D.K. Metcalf suspension and the way they leaned on him heavily with a season-high 294 passing yards. That good old Baltimore defense, always ripe for hitting up for big yards and a double-digit comeback. You could see things trending that way even before Kyle Hamilton was injured in the third quarter as the Steelers should  have finished the last drive of the first half with 6 before a goal-line stop.

However, the Steelers had some mental lapses on defense and left receivers wide open for Lamar Jackson, who hit them either for long touchdowns or what should have been a game-winning play to Likely to set up the field goal. But you definitely don’t love taking a 2-yard knee and not giving the ball to Derrick Henry for some more yards to get closer when you had a timeout left. Always get closer in that stadium for a kick of 40+ yards.

I had picked the Ravens to win the Super Bowl this year with the idea that 2025 would finally be the year they protect the ball and not screw things up with the season on the line. But my worry this summer was the rookie kicker, Tyler Loop, screwing things up in taking over for [REDACTED] and missing a do-or-die field goal.

Remember, the Ravens were in this position because Chris Boswell, usually one of the most reliable kickers in the game, missed the extra point. He’s been terrible the last three weeks for some reason, and he almost helped end the team’s season as they hung onto a 26-24 lead instead of 27-24.

But whether it was nerves for a rookie, a cold night, or the holy water thrown on that end of the end zone before the game, but fate smiled on the Steelers and Loop’s 44-yard field goal was wide right, ending Baltimore’s season, maybe John Harbaugh’s coaching tenure, and sending the Steelers to the playoffs with their first AFC North title since 2020.

Talk about streaks colliding next week. The Steelers are on a 6-game losing streak in the playoffs, allowing at least 28 points in every game (NFL record). But they’ve won 23 straight home games on Monday night with no losses since 1991, and it’s a Monday night game with Houston, who I felt last year was the kind of team the Steelers would need to face to end the streak as they shouldn’t have the offense that can light up the Steelers.

Maybe things with Rodgers, who gets Metcalf back, will be different this time. Maybe it’ll be another 21-0 deficit before you can blink (Chargers did fall behind 14-0 to Houston in 5:00 two weeks ago).

But in this twisted AFC, I’m actually feeling a little optimistic about the Steelers again and looking forward to Monday night.

Panthers at Buccaneers: The Funniest NFC South Ending, Part 1

Objectively, this game sure felt like the officiating was in favor of Tampa Bay to make sure it came down to Sunday’s game in Atlanta. There were some atrocious calls on a fumble, a weak OPI call that wiped out a big play in the third quarter, Cade Otton getting DPI for tripping over his own feet, a missed facemask, etc.

Officiating aside, I thought the quarterbacks handled the wet and rainy conditions well outside of a bad pick thrown by each. Bryce Young didn’t take any sacks, and he still threw for 266 yards and 2 touchdowns with literally no help from the running game (12 carries for 20 yards).

In fact, the running back position killed this game for Carolina in the fourth quarter when Rico Dowdle fell to the ground and tried to pitch the ball back to Young on a flea-flicker, and the Bucs recovered that fumble in a 16-7 game. Killer stuff, and no, you should never be trying a flea-flicker at the opponent 20 as that takes away the real long deep ball you’d like to set up from that. That’s why I question if that was actually the call or if Dowdle just tried to ad-lib after falling.

That was a crushing blow even with the Bucs getting their 36-yard field goal blocked on the other end. By the time the Panthers scored their touchdown and used their timeouts to get the ball back in a 16-14 game, just 18 seconds remained at their own 3-yard line. Tough for even the Carolina Reaper to do anything in that spot.

Alas, they had a backup route to the playoffs…

Saints at Falcons: The Funniest NFC South Ending, Part 2

We got the perfect ending to the 2025 NFC South as the Falcons did in fact beat the Saints to help Carolina win the division for the first time since 2015. Everything was coming up Carolina’s way in this game, including a late interception by Tyler Shough (otherwise played well) that probably locked up OROY for Tetairoa McMillan too.

Wild that you can get this much going your way by losing your last two games like Carolina did. But even with winning enough games to get to 8-9 and force that three-way tie, the Falcons still fired coach Raheem Morris. Can’t say I disagree with that one. This team should have won the division this year and blew it.

Now, the Saints might end up being the winner next year if they can add a few pieces around Shough.

Chargers at Broncos: Trey Lance Tried (Sorta)

The Chargers started Trey Lance instead of Justin Herbert, and it went about as poorly as you expected. He threw a pick-six, but the defense kept the Chargers hanging around all day before the Broncos pulled away late to win the No. 1 seed.

I get the idea of Sean Payton “saving things” for the playoffs on offense since he could see this team again in two weeks if the Chargers upset the No. 2 Patriots on the road. But it was still not an encouraging game on offense from Bo Nix and company.

Dolphins at Patriots: No Repeat of 2019

I guess you need a Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback to go into Foxboro for a finale upset if you’re Miami. That’s a callback to 2019 when the Patriots blew a first-round bye. You don’t get a bye for the No. 2 seed anymore, but the Patriots wrapped it up by making short order of the Dolphins. The running back duo scored five touchdowns in a variety of ways.

I haven’t seen any news on Mike McDaniel getting fired, so maybe he ends up coming back without Tua Tagovailoa in 2026.

Jets at Bills: Mitch Trubisky Caps Off Historic Season for QBs Facing Jets

You see why the schedule matters? The Jets played such a pathetic month of football that they gave up 6 touchdowns to Trevor Lawrence, 5 touchdowns to Drake Maye, and Mitch Trubisky hit them with 4 to end their season allowing 36 touchdown passes with 0 interceptions, new NFL records for futility. Only the Jets.

James Cook is lucky Derrick Henry slowed down in the second half or he would have lost that rushing title to him. But the Bills got to pad some defensive stats in the win and now have to face the Jaguars on the road in maybe the most interesting game of wild card weekend.

Colts at Texans: Maybe Riley Leonard Should Have Started?

I’m not saying the Colts make the playoffs if they start Riley Leonard instead of bringing Philip Rivers out of retirement. But maybe they should trust their coach and start Leonard when he was healthy? I was shocked at how he was taking it to Houston on the road in his first NFL start, and they were playing starters on defense when he did his most damage in the first half.

Unfortunately, even with the Texans calling off some dogs in the second half, Davis Mills led a game-winning drive and the Texans still won 32-30 to get to 12-5. But Steichen can coach offense, and it’s just unfortunate what happened to the Colts this year and how poorly the Sauce Gardner trade will age, especially if they try to get the draft resources together to steal Arch Manning in 2027.

Titans at Jaguars: Short Work

Watching Trevor Lawrence scramble in the third quarter with a 31-7 lead had me holding my breath. Get him on the sideline; this one was over. But great winning streak by the Jaguars to end the season, and Lawrence is playing the best ball of his career. Cam Ward unfortunately got injured on a touchdown scramble run, the first time he missed snaps this year. Get him a coach and he could be much better in 2026.

Chiefs at Raiders: Damn, Can Spags Hold Any Lead?

The Chiefs finish 2025 with 0 saves on defense (upheld a one-score lead in the fourth quarter/overtime) and 4 blown leads. They even gave up two more game-winning drives in the games Mahomes didn’t start. Spags really can’t stop anyone in crunch time, including Aidan O’Connell in the final minute.

The 2025 Chiefs without Mahomes are the first offense since the 2009 Raiders (JaMarcus Russell) to go three straight games without 170 yards of offense. If that was Travis Kelce’s final game, yikes. The Raiders got the win and still got the No. 1 pick on top of it.

But that’s also probably the last game in the coaching career of Pete Carroll. He was fired on Monday after one terrible season.

Browns at Bengals: Garrett Gets the Record in Stunning Fashion

It didn’t look like Myles Garrett was going to set the sack record after all. But with just over 5:00 left, he timed the snap perfectly and buried Joe Burrow for No. 23. I thought it was a little odd the way the game just stopped for it, but the Bengals should have used the time to come up with a better play.

While Joe Burrow did lead a rare go-ahead drive in the final minutes, he botched the critical 2-point conversion. That’s so costly in a 18-17 game where you open yourself up to losing by a field goal, which is more likely than ever now with the new kickoff rule and kicker’s range. Sure enough, Shedeur Sanders led his first game-winning drive with the Browns getting the walk-off field goal to make Garrett’s happy day even happier.

That makes up for Week 1 when the Browns choked on a go-ahead field goal late in the game against the Bengals. But what a sign of the times. The Browns win this game and fire Kevin Stefanski after six years. The Bengals lose again and are keeping Zac Taylor for 2026, reportedly.

Never change, Bungles.

Cardinals at Rams: Stafford Should Wrap Up MVP

The Rams played starters to go for the No. 5 seed, and it was one of those weeks where the Cardinals made it a close game, trailing only 23-20 to start the fourth quarter. But Stafford threw two more touchdowns to push his season total to 46, and the Rams finished 12-5, making the 2025 NFC West the first division ever with three 12-win teams.

I already wrote that I’m voting Stafford for MVP this year. Oddly enough, I think the Seattle loss cemented his case for me, doing what he did that night on the road without Adams in what should have been a win that led to the No. 1 seed. Then you watch what Bryce Young and Brock Purdy, two quarterbacks going to the playoffs, did against that Seattle defense in the next two games. Like two different sports.

The Rams should be disappointed with a 12-5 record though. They were in every game late and just didn’t close enough of them, and quarterback play is far down the list of reasons for that.

But maybe they’ll get a revenge tour in the playoffs, starting with the Carolina Panthers on Saturday.

Lions at Bears: Not Loving the Vibes, Ben

Can’t say I liked the way the Bears were down 16-0 at home when they had a chance to lock up the No. 2 seed with a win and drop Detroit under .500 in the process. They did eventually tie the game, but they didn’t close this time, and the Lions got a walk-off field goal to finish 9-8.

The No. 2 seed still worked out for them, but I wasn’t a big fan of the way Johnson handled this finale. Now it’s a rematch with Green Bay.

Commanders at Eagles: Backup Bowl

It’s not like the Eagles knew the Bears would lose to Detroit, but I’m still a bit down on Nick Sirianni for not trying to win this one with starters and get the No. 2 seed. I think I’d much rather play the Packers (injured team) first than the 49ers, and I’d much rather have home-field than go to Chicago should that 3-2 matchup come to fruition in the divisional round.

But the Eagles blew a 17-10 lead in the fourth quarter to Josh Johnson, and that’s why they’re going to play the 49ers now. A matchup we should have seen in the playoffs by now to get a rematch for the 2022 NFC-CG spoiled by Brock Purdy’s elbow injury on the 49ers’ first drive.

Cowboys at Giants: Why’d They Do Dak Like That?

Dak Prescott had won 12 games in a row against the Giants, had a chance to lead the NFL in passing yards, had a chance to finish .500 (8-8-1), and the Cowboys just ran it and benched him at halftime with 70 yards while the Giants rolled to a 34-17 win. I don’t get that at all, except maybe they wanted the Giants to get a weaker draft pick.

Packers at Vikings: [REDACTED]

If Matt LaFleur and the Packers didn’t care about losing their fourth in a row going into the playoffs, why should I care about their 16-3 loss? Ugly game. Had to call timeout and kick a field goal to avoid a shutout. I’ll just say “Nine” doesn’t seem capable of staying healthy, so that’s a problem for Minnesota going forward.

Next week: Playoffs? You kidding me? I’m somehow going to do the final QB rankings of 2025 for Monday, get Fraud Alert Rating for the season by Tuesday, full wild card previews for Wednesday/Thursday, and betting picks by Friday.

NFL 2025 Week 18 Predictions: For All the Marbles Edition

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We’ve reached the final weekend of the NFL 2025 regular season, and it’s hard to remember a crazier season than this with so many new contenders and so many favorites falling off. Who would ever have believed that Philip Rivers (4) would throw more touchdowns in December than Patrick Mahomes (0 in 2 games) in 2025?

I just took a sneak peak at where my preseason predictions stand, and while I was expecting the absolute worst, it looks like they’ll either be slightly better than 2024, and no worse than 2020 or 2022. But I’ll post those results on Monday morning, and I plan on doing a pretty full week of content to wrap up 2025’s regular season and get going on playoff coverage for what should be one of the hardest postseasons to predict.

Is there any “gimme” game in this playoffs besides maybe the No. 5 seed in the NFC going to the NFC South winner? I don’t think so. Anyone can beat anyone here, and we’ve even seen the Rams already lose in Carolina, so even that 5-4 matchup is possibly up for grabs.

But we have three division title games (well, one is a quasi-division title game) this weekend, and we could see the final NFL games ever involving the likes of Travis Kelce, Pete Carroll, and Aaron Rodgers. Maybe the last game John Harbaugh ever coaches for the Ravens too, the 40th edition of Harbaugh vs. Tomlin.

This Week’s Articles

2025 NFL Quarterback Rankings Week 18: The Christmas Where Matthew Stafford and Josh Allen Wish They Were Gifted the Jets’ Defense
Scott’s Seven NFL Picks: Week 18

My picks have a parlay for the Ravens-Steelers, Seahawks-49ers, and two NFC South games. I also have picks for Myles Garrett, Travis Kelce, and a parlay of big winners.

NFL Week 18 Predictions

Hoping to finish strong, but it’s always a tough week when you don’t know how motivated the eliminated teams will be, or how many snaps starters will get for the playoff teams.

2025 NFL Week 18 Picks

CAR-TB and NO-ATL: Give me that NFC South special. The Bucs win on Saturday but still get eliminated on Sunday after Atlanta beats the Saints without Chris Olave (pulmonary embolism; get well soon, brother). 3-way tie at 8-9 goes to Carolina, which will hopefully be the impetus for the NFL to stop giving division winners a home playoff game automatically.

SEA-SF: It’s the biggest one and I respect Seattle being probably the best team in the league this year with all three losses coming in the final minute. But I am going with the 49ers at home as I think that offense is peaking and the Seahawks have a QB in Darnold who has to prove he won’t implode in these moments. I still don’t trust him.

CLE-CIN: Myles Garrett gets his sack record, Bengals still win by 8+. If I was Joe Burrow, I’d lay down to give Garrett the cheapest sack possible for the record. See if he takes the bait. Cause it’s Burrow, you know there will probably be other opportunities later in the game, but that’s what I would do to get it out of the way.

DAL-NYG: *Yawn* Dak beats Giants again to get Cowboys to 8-8-1.

GB-MIN: Are we really about to see Clayton Tune against a Flores defense? Yikes, what an awful way to lose the under 8.5 wins bet on the 2025 Vikings.

IND-HOU: Tempted to take Indy ATS, but I think Houston can win a 20-6 type of snoozer to end the season for the Colts with Riley Leonard at QB.

TEN-JAX: I have Jags winning the AFC South here, but I think Cam Ward can end his rookie season on a high note by at least covering the big spread.

KC-LV: Kenny Pickett returns? Chiefs should win but would it really be beneficial to the draft? Just get Travis Kelce his 10 yards quickly and be done with it.

DET-CHI: What a turnaround for these teams since Week 2. I think the Bears cover at home to get that No. 2 seed and drop Detroit to a losing record without Ben Johnson this year.

LAC-DEN: Trey Lance gets a start, and I know Keenan Allen needs 6 catches for a nice incentive. But I’m going to trust Harbaugh enough to not get embarrassed and cover the spread here. Denver wins the No. 1 seed though.

MIA-NE: This might have been interesting in Miami where the Patriots tend to struggle, but it’s at home in January, so they’ll beat up on a bad Miami team here.

WAS-PHI: Yes, the Eagles can cover without Jalen Hurts against a poor defense and backup QB.

ARI-LAR: I find it hard to believe that Sean McVay will really play starters even if he’s locked into the No. 6 seed. But the Cardinals are 50/50 to get completely blown out, so I’ll take his word on it and take the Rams to cover.

NYJ-BUF: We’ll see if Josh Allen dips after the first snap to keep his streak alive, but I think he should at least do the old Peyton Manning strategy in Indy where you play a drive or two before getting out of there. Plus, it’s the Jets, so he very well could watch James Cook pile up some rushing yards to win the rushing title, then set up a tush push TD to keep Allen’s streak of 40-TD seasons alive.

BAL-PIT: I wrote a detailed preview with a +1200 SGP in the picks piece above, but I honestly think the Metcalf suspension is going to doom them in the end. That decision to give the most WR-centric passer ever one good wideout all season, and then for him to be suspended while they face AFC North defenses in bad weather is just more bad luck for Rodgers, who I honestly think should come back in 2026 if the Steelers can find a way to get him another WR.

But I picked Ravens over Packers in the Super Bowl before this absurd season started, and I’m not backing down now on the Baltimore side of things. A run is still possible in this AFC but let’s see how healthy Lamar looks.

2025 NFL Stat Oddity: Week 17

~ Scott ~ 1 Comment

That was a very long Week 17 slate in the NFL that started with Josh Johnson on Christmas afternoon and ended with a classic shootout between the Bears and 49ers. It sets up three division title games in Week 18 in prime time and little of substance on Sunday afternoon.

We had nine games with a comeback opportunity, so we still haven’t had a week with 10 chances since Week 4. That has me a little worried about Atlanta’s ability to keep it close with the Rams on Monday night, but we’ll see as I still think that one has upset potential.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Bears at 49ers: Game of the Day

This 42-38 game summed up in one graphic:

The crazy part is the Bears didn’t have their best wideout in Rome Odunze, and D.J. Moore wasn’t 100%, and the two rookies (Luther Burden and Colston Loveland) dominated with 232 yards and 2 TDs). The 49ers didn’t have George Kittle, Ricky Pearsall wasn’t 100%, and they still lit it up too with Brock Purdy accounting for 5 total touchdowns (10 in prime time since Monday night) and 303 passing yards.

Not a bad shootout for a game that started with a pick-six. But I think it’s a game where the 49ers showed they could run the ball very well against a bad run defense as CMC had 140 rushing yards. Purdy played excellent, and it’s past time we act like he always needs George Kittle, Brandon Aiyuk, and Deebo Samuel to do this, because none of those three were available to him on Sunday night. Left tackle Trent Williams also left on the opening drive.

But I also think you have to give Caleb Williams and the Bears credit for hanging in there blow for blow when the 49ers are on a heater like this. It came down to the final snap, and the Bears were that close to extending their record to a seventh win this season when trailing in the final 2:00.

If we somehow got this as a playoff rematch, I think that’d be great. But definitely a strong night for the offensive minds of Ben Johnson and Kyle Shanahan. Now, the 49ers just have to beat Seattle (easier said than done) on Saturday night and they’ll be the No. 1 seed again.

My only warning would be that you see what it might look like without Nick Bosa and Fred Warner, though there is some hope Warner could return during the playoffs. But if Purdy is playing like this, maybe this can finally be San Francisco’s year.

Eagles at Bills: Familiar Trends

Throw in a lot of cold rain to make it even easier on these two strong pass defenses, and Sunday’s 13-12 final more or less played up to the season trends for the Eagles and Bills:

  • The Eagles started strong, taking a 13-0 lead into the locker room with Dallas Goedert adding another easy 1-yard touchdown to his season total.
  • Jalen Hurts then promptly went 0-for-7 passing in the second half with DeVonta Smith only coming close on a overturned catch one time.
  • Saquon Barkley was held to 68 yards on 19 carries, so his disappointing season continued more than the horrid Buffalo run defense did, but it helped that the Eagles weren’t completing passes.
  • Josh Allen took 5 sacks, including another contender for the worst sack of the year that knocked him out of field goal range as the Bills were shut out for 54 minutes.
  • James Cook was held to 77 total yards, and the Bills are now 0-4 this season when Cook is under 100 yards from scrimmage, averaging 14.8 points per game in those games.

But Philadelphia’s classic second-half no show on offense meant the defense had to hold up, and it almost broke. The Bills finally broke through with some big plays to Brandin Cooks and others (another hook-and-lateral) to get down the field twice, and despite the bad foot, Allen snuck in two touchdown runs in the final 5:11, including a 4th-and-goal from the 1 run with 0:08 left.

The Bills made the controversial decision to go for 2 and the win, and Allen completely whiffed on the throw to an open Shakir in the end zone. Game over; the Patriots win the AFC East. It’s no wonder they like to run the ball down there. That should have been an easy conversion, but the Bills have been missing these 2PC plays all season.

However, I have to defend the decision to go for the win instead of playing for overtime. I think it was absolutely the right call for Sunday’s circumstances:

  • The weather was horrible, which can make an extra point even harder, and it’s not like Buffalo’s kicker has been reliable on those, getting one blocked on the first touchdown. The Eagles have good blockers too.
  • Allen’s foot wasn’t 100% and that limits his effectiveness, so you don’t want to keep putting stress on that for more snaps in overtime.
  • The Bills realistically have to admit the Patriots are likely winning the AFC East with only a home game against Miami left, so it’s not like the division title or a No. 1 seed is really on the line here.

If this game was earlier in the season when you have less clarity about the playoff standings, I think you take them to overtime as your defense was playing outstanding and you’re at home. If the weather was better, I think you play on into overtime. If Allen was 100% healthy in a normal game, I think you go to overtime, which is a place he’s never actually won a game in the NFL yet.

But those were not the circumstances on Sunday in Week 17, so I don’t have an issue with the Bills doing what they did. I just have an issue with Allen badly missing the throw as they finally had a good play dialed up for one of those 2PCs.

The Eagles (11-5) still have an outside shot of the No. 2 seed over Chicago. The Bills (11-5) drop from No. 5 to No. 7, and with the Jets only left on the schedule, I think they’ll go to 12-5, the Texans beat the Colts to get to 12-5 and the No. 5 seed by virtue of head-to-head win, and the Chargers lose at Denver to fall to No. 7 seed at 11-6.

I had Buffalo lined up for No. 5 for a while, but seeing as how that now could be Derrick Henry and the Ravens in Baltimore, I’m not sure they want any part of that matchup in two weeks, so it’s possible that bad throw was strategic by Allen.

Then again, going to No. 6 and probably having to go to Jacksonville, a team playing as well as anyone, may not be a great start either for this team. But that’s where I see things trending for Buffalo.

Steelers at Browns: The Tomlin Special (The Last One?)

Once the Ravens beat the Packers on Saturday night, you could see the “Tomlin Special” coming from a mile away.

The Steelers were going to lose to a 3-12 Cleveland team to set up a winner-take-all game on SNF against the Ravens for the AFC North. And they’ll have to do it without D.K. Metcalf (suspended) and Darnell Washington (broke his arm on Sunday). Maybe without Calvin Austin too, or the three players who had 67% of Rodgers’ passing yards in Baltimore earlier this season.

I knew the Ravens being +800 value the other day to win the AFC North was too good to pass up. That’s not to say it’s a sure thing, because the Ravens have a pretty bad history of playing well in Pittsburgh, but the Steelers played Sunday with no real energy or care to want to wrap things up with a great opportunity against a bad team.

Instead, they gave up 10 early points to Shedeur Sanders before picking him off twice later. But even with nine possessions in a 4-to-7 point game the rest of the way, the Steelers never found the end zone even once. They pissed away drives with penalties, a pathetic 4th-and-1 deep pass to Scotty Miller, a Rodgers slide short of the sticks on third down, a bad sack to make a field goal too long, and forcing the ball repeatedly to washed-up wide receivers against a No. 1 pass defense with good corners playing man coverage.

And yes, the Steelers absolutely were too focused on Myles Garrett breaking the sack record. Garrett himself admitted it, and while you might expect him to say that given he was shutout by a makeshift offensive line, anyone who says this didn’t have a big negative impact on the game for Pittsburgh didn’t watch the game.

You could see it in the way they called plays at times, like not calling a single pass in a 13-9 game with 7:03 left and the ball at midfield. Three-and-out on runs. You could see it in the way Rodgers was letting go of the ball extra fast (usually well under 2.6 seconds), sometimes just throwing the ball away before he even dares left Garrett get a whiff of him.

That hampered the offense all day, and it’s a silly thing to worry about when Garrett gets to play Joe Burrow next week. The record is going to fall, but Rodgers sure looked like he’d be damned to be Brett Favre and get caught in a highlight reel forever for going down on the record-breaking sack.

Instead, he reverted to his factory settings by forcing outside throws to wide receivers instead of using the only players that are actually any good in this offense, the tight ends and running backs. Rodgers was 8-of-21 for 60 yards on passes to MVS, Scotty Miller, and Adam Thielen. Meanwhile, Pat Freiermuth had the big plays on the final drive, but he only finished with 63 yards on 3-of-5 passing.

Feed him more, except Rodgers just doesn’t like tight ends and will rather throw to washed-up wideouts he has no real chemistry with against maybe the worst defense to try that against this year.

Just buffoonery from start to finish as the Steelers finished with 6 points on 11 drives. Mike Tomlin is now 0-7 at Cleveland without Ben Roethlisberger, who was 12-2-1 at Cleveland.

I had a bad feeling the Metcalf suspension would lead to something like this, but I really didn’t think Rodgers would go with low-risk passes to MVS in the end zone (against Denzel Ward) on three straight passes with the game on the line. Metcalf would have been a target there. Freiermuth or Jonnu Smith should have been a target there. MVS stinks.

But Rodgers’ loyalty to “his guys” at wideout came back to bite them. A bad gameplan hurt them. Worrying too much about Garrett, who didn’t even generate that much pressure, hurt them.

Frankly, this team doesn’t deserve the postseason. They got their ninth win last week, and at this rate, I’ll be surprised if they get another this season.

Jaguars at Colts: Farewell Philip (Again?)

Hats off to the Jaguars for getting to 12-4 with a sweep of the Colts this month. This was a good back-and-forth game with Trevor Lawrence showing off his legs on two touchdown runs, and the pass defense held up against Philip Rivers for the most part (147 yards, 1 touchdown).

Rivers’ lone pick came in the fourth quarter of a tied game (had to play that tune one more time), and that actually led to Jacksonville’s game-winning field goal drive, which consisted of losing 3 yards after a stuffed Travis Etienne run and two incompletions by Lawrence. Yikes.

Rivers got the ball back in a 23-17 game with 18 seconds left, but instead of seeing him throw one last pick in a one-score game to perhaps end his career for good, a delay of game penalty on the defense moved the ball to the Jacksonville 48. Riley Leonard came off the bench with the stronger, younger arm to throw the Hail Mary, and that too was intercepted to end the game.

Rivers has no regrets about the comeback attempt even though the Colts were eliminated from the playoffs on Saturday with Houston’s win. He’ll go down as an all-time competitor and one of the only people crazy enough to try this after five years away from the game.

If this is the end of the road, he’ll now finish 36-84 (.300) at game-winning drive opportunities and 30-79 (.275) at comeback opportunities down one score.

Seahawks at Panthers: NFC South Shame Pt. 1

It’s not like I expected the Panthers to beat the Seahawks, but damn, have some pride at home. The Panthers were 5-1 ATS as a home underdog this year, but the best they could do in this one was make it 17-10 in the fourth quarter after a Bryce Young touchdown run.

It’s a good thing he had that run because he finished with 54 passing yards on 24 attempts, or 40 yards on 26 plays if you add his sacks.

But a huge facemask penalty got the Seahawks out of a 3rd-and-21 situation, and they punched in another score to go up 20-10. Young took consecutive sacks before throwing a 5-yard pass on 4th-and-17, leading to a 25-yard touchdown drive by the Seahawks to ice it at 27-10.

All three of Seattle’s touchdown drives started inside the Carolina 30 in the second half, taking advantage of Carolina’s mistakes on offense. This game was winnable despite the final score, but it really looks like no one wants to take the NFC South this year.

Their division title game should end in a tie, which would still give it to the Panthers.

Buccaneers at Dolphins: NFC South Shame Pt. 2

This Tampa Bay collapse needs studied. The Dolphins came in ranked No. 26 against the run and the Bucs just couldn’t get anything going on the ground. It doesn’t help when Tristan Wirfs was inactive at tackle. But Baker Mayfield probably has the best 4-WR group in the NFL, and yet they were stuck on 10 points with him throwing two picks deep into this one before a last-minute Mike Evans touchdown led to a failed onside kick in a 20-17 loss.

Quinn Ewers had a couple of touchdown passes to lesser-known Miami targets for the rookie’s first win. The running game was solid. Miami will likely finish 7-10, which sounds like the typical Miami season in the 21st century.

Giants at Raiders: The Toilet Bowl

Both teams had lost nine in a row, but the Raiders would have been dumb to win this game and hand the Giants the No. 1 pick in the draft. The Raiders definitely need it more as they have a quarterback need the Giants don’t with Jaxson Dart rushing for two more scores in this 34-10 rout as Geno Smith took another beating behind his line.

The No. 1 pick isn’t locked up for the Raiders yet, and the Chiefs would probably be wise to not let them secure it next week either. Then again, it’s not like there looks to be a real QB prize in the 2026 draft.

Cardinals at Bengals: Ho-Hum

Go figure, it took Jacoby Brissett deep into garbage time (trailed by 30 points at the two-minute warning) to finally break 200 yards passing and throw his second touchdown of the day against the Bengals in a 37-14 loss that was never really competitive.

Just glad to say I was right that Ja’Marr Chase and Trey McBride finding the end zone were the only picks you needed from this otherwise fruitless endeavor between losing teams.

Patriots at Jets: Seriously, Just End the Season

The Patriots scored six straight touchdowns to start their 42-10 rout of the Jets, another tip in the cap for offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels, who has been behind some of those all-time drubbings in NFL history.

Speaking of history, the 2025 Jets have done it. In 16 games, they’ve let quarterbacks throw 32 touchdowns and 0 interceptions after a 5-piece from Drake Maye on Sunday. That’s two weeks after Trevor Lawrence had six total touchdowns on this defense.

I know Aaron Glenn is going to get excuses that they traded two of his best defenders, but this shit was rotten from Week 1 and has only gotten worse. I wouldn’t criticize the Jets if they made him a one-and-done coach, but I doubt that will happen no matter how brutal this 3-win season has gone.

Saints at Titans: Ending 2025 on a High Note

I know people don’t care about these teams this season, but I think it was a very good showing for both Tyler Shough and Cam Ward, and a game that should have their fans excited about what can happen in 2026 with more seasoning from Shough and better coaching/talent around Ward.

But Shough got the best of this matchup as he added another 300-yard passing game and comeback win to his resume. In such a down year for rookies, I’m very serious about voting him for OROY. Just finish strong next week.

Texans at Chargers: Houston Outlasts Them

Going back to Saturday quickly, I was most excited about this game and I think it delivered a playoff atmosphere with a tough, physical grind after some early explosives from Houston’s offense made it 14-0 in the blink of an eye.

But I thought Justin Herbert’s teammates let him down again with the tipped pick in the red zone, and Dicker the Kicker turned into Nate Kaeding in a big game. This guy is supposed to be perfect from inside 40 yards, yet he missed one from 40 and an extra point, costing the Chargers 4 points in a game they lost by, yep, 4 points. And don’t act like I haven’t forgotten about the missed field goal in the Jacksonville playoff loss. I see what this kicker is up to. Can’t trust him.

But the Texans held on for the second week in a row by getting a huge defensive penalty to help them run out the clock. I’m not sure Chargers fans can complain much about that illegal contact that wiped out a third-down sack of Stroud. The Chargers also had two defensive penalties wipe out huge sacks on Herbert on their previous drive to score a touchdown.

This game is a pretty good sign that the Texans are more dangerous than the Chargers in the playoffs because of their defense and their offensive line doesn’t have turnstiles at offensive tackle. But I also think it helped  expose that the Houston offense is still likely to come up short before a Super Bowl appearance to keep this team out of the big game.

Crazy stat: Houston has never been a wild card team. All eight playoff appearances for the Texans have come as the AFC South winner, so we’ll see how that shakes out if Jacksonville wraps this division up on Sunday.

Ravens at Packers: King Henry Reigns Supreme

For a game with two backup quarterbacks, there were a lot of points and quality drive engineering between the Packers and Ravens on Saturday night. While the Ravens leaned on Derrick Henry, who dominated with 216 yards and 4 touchdowns, it was the Packers who surprisingly couldn’t run at all and leaned on Malik Willis to throw for 288 yards and rush for 60 yards and 2 touchdowns. Sadly, a late injury knocked him out and Clayton Tune was intercepted on a tipped ball.

But I think it’s clear that Matt LaFleur is going to help Willis get paid a ton of money from a team to be their starter in 2026 or 2027, a miraculous coaching job with a player who couldn’t throw for 100 yards in any of his starts as a rookie on the 2022 Titans. Maybe even his brother Mike LaFleur, the Rams offensive coordinator, will be hired by a team to make Willis work out as well as his brother has.

Good luck with that, but it was an impressive game from him on Saturday night. They didn’t lose this game because Jordan Love (concussion) was out. They lost because their defense, missing Micah Parsons, was pathetic, a familiar tune in Green Bay in big games.

The Packers are now 0-3 this year when they don’t punt in a game, which has never been done before in a season. The rest of the NFL is 10-0 this year. Green Bay is just the 10th team since 1950 to lose a game by at least 17 points without punting.

Next week: I get to look back at how bad my predictions were for this crazy season. We get the sacrificial lamb game first on Saturday to determine the No. 4 seed in the NFC. We get the No. 1 seed game at night, then it’s a pretty bland Sunday afternoon slate leading up to Ravens vs. Steelers for the AFC North.

2025 NFL Stat Oddity: Week 16

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

I cannot recall an NFL season that felt this wide open as it does in 2025. Big leads don’t feel safe no matter who you’re playing, and even for the teams looking at the wild card paths to the Super Bowl, there’s no juggernaut or historic team out there that I’ll say they can’t beat on the road in January.

That last part is the important one. In the past years I’ve covered, you always had some team with Brady, Manning, or Mahomes that you just wouldn’t expect to ever lose to a low seed like the 2016 Texans (Brock Osweiler year), 2020 Browns (no defense), or when the 2023 Steelers snuck in with Mason Rudolph.

But not this year.

  • Not when you can watch the Seahawks’ version of Sam Darnold overcome his kryptonite (Rams) with a 16-point comeback win on Thursday night in what I called the Game of the Year this weekend. He has a great defense backing him up.
  • Not when the Bears can wipe out a 10-point deficit in the last 5:00 to beat Green Bay in overtime, and we’ve already seen them run over the Eagles in Philly.
  • Not when the Eagles are playing sound defense, the running game is starting to pick things up, and you can at least argue they’ve been to the Super Bowl twice since 2022 and big-game experience matters.
  • Not when the Panthers have already upset the Packers, Rams, Buccaneers, etc. and should have won in Philadelphia last year (Xavier Legette drop) as Bryce Young turns into Steve Young in big moments.
  • Not when the Rams should probably be 15-0 if not for blowing every loss in inexplicable fashion.
  • Not when the 49ers have a path to the No. 1 seed that includes sweeping Darnold in Week 18 (a la how Detroit did last year) and have the Super Bowl at home this year.
  • Not when the Packers – okay, this one is probably a stretch without Micah Parsons and Tucker Kraft. But if Jordan Love can return on Saturday…

But we’re used to seeing the NFC offer new contenders. What about the AFC that’s been dominated by quarterback stability? Well, that’s simply not the case this year as Sunday proved again:

  • The Broncos (12-3) saw their 11-game winning streak snapped in impressive fashion by Jacksonville, the first bad game Denver’s played all year. Still in line for the No. 1 seed though.
  • The Patriots (12-3) are right on Denver’s heels and that big comeback win in Baltimore should do wonders for Drake Maye’s confidence and development in games like this.
  • The Jaguars (11-4) have been red hot since the bye week, they can score 25+ every week, and they get turnovers on defense. What’s really stopping Trevor Lawrence from going on an Eli/Flacco/Foles type of run?
  • The Steelers (9-6) always flop in the postseason, but I think this season has been different in several areas we’ll get into the next few weeks. If they do have to play the Bills in the wild card and can find a way past that one, they have dark horse potential with Aaron Rodgers playing his best ball at the right moment.
  • The Chargers (11-4) still have a shot to win the AFC West by beating Houston and Denver, and if they can do that behind Justin Herbert and Jim Harbaugh, who can’t they beat in this AFC?
  • The Bills (11-4) may be terrible at stopping the run, but they stop the pass, they can run the ball too, they put up points, and they have big-game experience and have done well against basically every team but the Chiefs (not in the picture this year) over the years.
  • The Texans (10-5) struggling with the Raiders may give you pause, but they have the best defense in the NFL this year and could be a problem for anyone they face with a playoff win in each of the last two seasons.

There are usually several playoff teams you can just write off for having a pathetic defense or rookie/backup quarterback. But that’s not going to be the case this year, and I don’t think there’s any “chalk” matchup here. I could be sold on 49ers vs. Texans in Super Bowl 60 just as easily I could be told Eagles vs. Bills in Week 17 is a Super Bowl preview, or even Patriots vs. Rams for the third time this century

This must be that “parity” people speak of but never really get like this. I’m not sure if this will lead to me doing more research than usual in January, always my busiest month of the year, or if I’ll be inclined to do less and just sit back and let this madness unfold since so many of these teams don’t have a track record to rely on.

All I know is just about every time someone tries to anoint a team as the one to beat this year, they usually show you with the quickness that they are very beatable. Even if they’re up double digits late in the game.

But Week 16 was a memorable one with all three of the games with late lead changes coming in the prime-time slots. Overall, we had 9 games with a comeback opportunity, and we’ll see if Colts-49ers can give us 10 in a week for the first time since Week 4.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Patriots at Ravens: Sunday’s Best

It was many weeks ago when I called my shot that Drake Maye would have his first 300-yard passing game in the NFL against Baltimore in Week 16. Then as the game was approaching this week, I had the Drake Maye MVP Parlay that hit with Stafford’s loss against Seattle starting it on Thursday, and I wrote how the Ravens have a history of letting young passers set career highs in passing yards against them recently.

Then right before the game, I made my pick:

This wasn’t an endorsement of Maye as much as it was I know how John Harbaugh’s Ravens play, and I know you can’t trust them in games like this, especially in 2025. Sure enough, you could see early on that Maye had big plays coming against this secondary. He just had to control his turnovers as he turned it over twice in scoring range early on.

But the Ravens lost Lamar Jackson in the first half to a back injury, putting Tyler Huntley under the microscope for the rest of the night in an important game. He did help lead two touchdown drives to give the Ravens a 24-13 lead with 12:50 left, but we’ve seen this movie before with Baltimore.

Maye answered with a great 37-yard touchdown pass to Kyle Williams to get over 300 yards, then the Ravens ignored using Derrick Henry on the ensuing drive and punted. Maye had a deep ball that should have been caught by Boutte, but he dropped it on the ground after he was interfered with on the play, and I can’t believe there wasn’t a flag there. Go figure, I lost a good parlay on this game because he didn’t get yards there.

That was a first-down play that led to some critical snaps later. On third down, Maye’s pass was nearly intercepted by Nate Wiggins, but then Maye threaded the needle on 4th-and-2 to Stefon Diggs for a big 21-yard completion. The defense doesn’t make you pay on a pick and you come back and finish the game-winning drive. That sounds very Brady-esque by Maye.

Two plays later, Rhamondre Stevenson finished the drive with a 21-yard touchdown run with 2:07 left. Maye’s defense needed to complete the comeback, and it did its job by forcing Zay Flowers to fumble two plays into the ensuing drive. Maye had a 16-yard keeper run to ice his first 4QC/GWD in the NFL, an 11-point comeback in the fourth, and that career-high line of 380 passing yards. That’s a memorable first comeback.

At 12-3, the Patriots can still think about 14-3 and a potential No. 1 seed if Denver loses again. I’m not convinced this game should make Maye the MVP since Baltimore just isn’t Baltimore anymore, but it keeps him firmly in the running with Stafford, who can still slip up in Atlanta next Monday night.

But this win should give Maye and the Patriots a lot of confidence that they can win this type of game where he had 57 of the team’s 70 action plays. That’s MVP quarterback-y stuff.

Steelers at Lions: It’s All Over Now, Baby Blue

This game finished 29-24, hitting the over (52.5), but that’s a miracle when you consider how each half started.

The Steelers took a 3-0 lead after the first quarter, scoring no more than 7 points in the opening quarter for the 67th game in a row including playoffs, the longest streak since WWII. They were able to hold the Lions to no points after facing a 1st-and-goal at the 4 by stopping a Jared Goff pass on 4th-and-3 from the 3, a sign of things to come.

But instead of Detroit taking a 10-3 lead into halftime, Kenneth Gainwell made a Catch of the Year candidate when he was laying down and caught a deep pass, getting up untouched and racing to the end zone to complete a 45-yard game-tying touchdown with 0:02 left in the half.

The Steelers ended up winning the third quarter by a 2-0 score, sacking Goff in the end zone for a safety after Darnell Washington had fumbled in the red zone. Then Jaylen Warren was able to rip off two 45-yard touchdown runs in the fourth quarter, the second giving the Steelers a 29-17 lead with 6:41 left.

But the Lions quickly got one touchdown, and similar to the Ireland game where the Steelers nearly blew a 17-point lead in quick fashion, they almost coughed this one up with poor clock management in the four-minute offense. They settled for a 37-yard field goal with 2:09 left, which should have been automatic for Chris Boswell, but he missed it off the right upright. Inexcusable for one of the game’s best.

Now 29-24, it sure looked like the Steelers were going to blow this one by giving up a late touchdown and they didn’t even have any timeouts left to answer. There was a game-saving DPI penalty on 4th-and-2 to keep the game alive, and sure enough, Goff had the Lions on a 1st-and-goal at the 1 with 25 seconds left.

But that’s when it got interesting and heavy on the officials. Amon-Ra St. Brown caught a 1-yard touchdown, but it was negated for a pick play called on Isaac TeSlaa. It looked like the right call as he was blocking more than 1 yard past the line, but it’s admittedly not something that always gets called. That was huge cause it backed the Lions up to their 11 with little time left, then a false start had them at the 16.

After some Goff incompletions, it came down to 4th-and-goal from the 9. A short pass to St. Brown was tackled quickly, but he was allowed to lateral the ball back to Goff, who dove into the end zone for what Lions fans thought was a walk-off touchdown in a 30-29 final.

After some record-long discussions about the play, it was determined to be offensive pass interference on Brown for pushing off on Jalen Ramsey, and that ends the game there. No replay of the down for an offensive penalty, and Goff’s touchdown dive simply doesn’t count. Game over, and when the ref said game over, I still wasn’t 100% sure what the final score was supposed to be.

But it looks like they got the calls right, and the Steelers prevailed 29-24, clinching their record 22nd-straight season with a non-losing record, moving past the 1965-85 Cowboys for good. They also move a step closer to winning the AFC North for the first time since 2020.

Meanwhile, Detroit has gone from 15-2 to 8-7 this year and needs to win out while the Packers need to lose out just for the Lions to return as a No. 7 seed. Crazy year for an offense that came into this one leading the league in scoring and having the fewest turnovers (8) of any offense despite losing coordinator Ben Johnson to the No. 1 Bears in the NFC North.

But even in this game, you could see some cracks in Dan Campbell’s offense as they’re missing Sam LaPorta, a tight end who could have been their target on those failed drives early and late in the game. They also just don’t have the line anymore to dominate on the ground. The running backs had 11 carries for 16 yards, which is crazy work against a Pittsburgh run defense that has allowed over 200 rushing yards to the Ravens and Bills recently. Did the return of rookie Derrick Harmon cause that big of a shift in run defense success? That’s hard to say.

This is also why these Steelers might actually be a little different this year with Aaron Rodgers playing his best ball right now, and the defense has rose to the occasion a few times in a game like this and when they turned the Colts (6) and Patriots (5) over 11 times combined in upset wins.

It doesn’t feel like Tomlin is ever leaving Pittsburgh until he wants to leave, but the Steelers have won 3-0 since “Fire Tomlin!” chants rained down at home against Buffalo. That could end up being the 5-4 rematch on wild card weekend too with Tomlin getting a chance to redeem himself and win his first playoff game since the 2016 season.

Sure, beating Buffalo in the wild card sounds crazy, but when has this 2025 NFL season ever made sense?

Granted, a long suspension for D.K. Metcalf after he punched at a fan in the crowd could be a huge setback here as Rodgers’ only reliable wideout. I’m not sure what the precedent is there, but I could see a 1-game suspension for that. I don’t think it should be more since he didn’t do more than the one punch/slap attempt. He didn’t go full Ron Artest in Detroit (Malice at the Palace). But that’ll be a story to keep an eye on this week as the Steelers need Metcalf for the playoff push.

Buccaneers at Panthers: Does Todd Bowles Survive This?

Man, if not for the Cardinals, the Buccaneers would be winless since Week 9’s bye week. That’s still pretty bad for a team that was 5-1 and has only gotten healthier at receiver and running back. But Baker Mayfield needed a big 40-yard pass to Emeka Egbuka just to break 100 passing yards late in the fourth quarter.

Then down 23-20 late, he was not on the same page with Mike Evans, who cut in while Baker threw the out, and it ended up as a game-ending interception that gives the Panthers the NFC South lead with two weeks to go. The Bucs are just 7-8 now.

I’m just waiting for something big to come out of this decline like finding out Mayfield tore something against the 49ers and tried to play injured, or something indecent has happened with the coaching staff and caused a rift between Todd Bowles and the coordinator. Just something to explain how this team can keep failing to execute after they were money early in the season under pressure.

As for Carolina, it’s a 12th game-winning drive for Bryce Young and his sixth this season. He didn’t have a huge game, but neither did his running game, and he had a timely 34-yard completion on the game-winning field goal drive.

The only positive for Tampa Bay is it still has the Week 18 rematch at home. That’s probably why the Bucs still have -170 odds to win the NFC South. But I don’t know how you can trust a team that’s been so poor for two months now.

Jaguars at Broncos: Mile High Can’t Touch Duuuuuval

I didn’t see a ton of this game on Sunday. But while I liked the Jaguars (+3.5) to cover, I still thought it’d be a very tight game won by Denver. Instead, it’s the first bad game the Broncos have played all year as their 11-game win streak started after losing on last-second field goals to the Colts and Chargers in September.

The Broncos sacked Trevor Lawrence five times, but once again he excelled with the receivers that have become his main guys under Liam Coen like Parker Washington and Jakobi Meyers. Brian Thomas Jr. only had 18 yards in this game, but that development has been the surprise of the season for the Jaguars, who are now 11-4.

Bo Nix threw for 352 yards, but he lost a fumble late in the third quarter when it was 31-17, and he threw a bad pick on 4th-and-2 when it was 34-20 in the fourth quarter. I saw people clowning Sean Payton, who I am openly not a big fan of over the years, for kicking the 21-yard field goal on 4th-and-3 on the previous drive when it was 34-17.

I think Payton made the right call as I believe you need to keep extending the game and not put your players in “convert this or the game is already over” situations. Keep the pressure on the other team instead, and the Broncos really got what they wanted. They made it a 14-point game, you always  needed the field goal anyway at some point down 17, and now you get the quick three-and-out and the ball back in a 34-20 game with 9:28 left.

But that’s when the fourth-down pick happened, and from there it was basically over even though Denver got it back with 4:14 and the same score. Just no fourth-quarter magic this week as Jacksonville played very well.

If you can win at Denver, you might be able to win anywhere in this season’s AFC. A certain 19-point lead against a certain long-necked backup quarterback is the only thing stopping the Jaguars from having an 8-game winning streak since the bye.

But the Denver streak is over and the AFC West is in jeopardy, let alone that No. 1 seed they seemed to be cruising to.

Bills at Browns: Want to See the Worst Sacks of the Season?

The highly ranked pass defenses of the Browns and Bills did not disappoint in this game. While both defenses would love to face a pass instead of a run, it was compounded by how well the Bills did on the ground early with James Cook ripping off a 44-yard touchdown run on the opening drive.

But with barely over a minute left in the half, Josh Allen took the worst sack of his career that also put his team’s season in jeopardy after he injured his ankle by running backwards from his own 23 to take a 22-yard sack back at his 1 to almost give up a safety. It looked so bad that it almost looked like Garrett paid Allen to do that to set him up for an easy sack, and the scorers agreed as they somehow gave Garrett half a sack on the play.

Garrett didn’t get a full sack, but the Bills only managed a 2-yard field goal drive in the whole second half. Allen was off on some throws, and sometimes his tight ends didn’t complete the catches as the passing game just never got it going.

Shedeur Sanders had some great scrambles in the game, but he also fell victim to bad, deep sacks with the game on the line. He lost 13 yards on a 4th-and-2 sack in a 23-20 game in the fourth quarter. Then after getting the ball back, he took another sack, then got called for intentional grounding to avoid another that brought up 3rd-and-32. After a deep incompletion, Sanders was stuck facing 4th-and-32 from his own 1 with 1:49 left.

There’s no man’s land, and then there’s whatever the fvck that was. With two timeouts left, you almost want to go for it. Three timeouts would make it easier to justify the punt. But Sanders had almost no room to operate in the end zone, and needing 32 yards, you really risk giving up a safety and possession there. You’re almost certain to fail barring a cheap foul, so punting is probably the best thing you could do in that impossible spot.

Allen finally put the game away with an 8-yard pass and QB sneak on 3rd-and-1. But that was a tough win for the Bills, who were a big 10.5-point road favorite. It continues the trend where Allen just doesn’t put up many yards (or points or both) on the road this year, and given the Patriots are close to winning the AFC East, it could be all road games for him to get to the Super Bowl. Not ideal.

But the Bills play great defense in the big spots and they now have seven defensive saves (stops when leading by one score in the fourth quarter) and no blown leads in 2025. Will be interesting to see how they fare against the Eagles next week, a team with more experience and better quarterback play (usually) than the Browns have.

Bengals at Dolphins: Free of Tua, Not Free of a Bad Defense

I give Mike McDaniel and Miami credit for doing the right thing, maybe the overdue thing, and benching Tua Tagovailoa, effectively ending his reign (of terror) with the Dolphins. Quinn Ewers did some solid things early with the running game doing great against a poor Cincinnati defense, but similar to last week in Pittsburgh, the game got completely away from the Dolphins in the third quarter.

Two turnovers and a fourth-down stop set up three short fields for touchdowns by Joe Burrow and the Bengals, who won 45-21. I’m sure that had Tua smirking from the bench, but this team has a better shot of dragging itself out of purgatory by moving on from him. Ewers probably won’t be the long-term answer, but at least they get a look at him in these final games.

Raiders at Texans: Hope for Ashton Jeanty

It didn’t take long for the Houston defense to make its presence felt by intercepting a poor throw from Geno Smith for a pick-six. But Houston’s offense was sputtering, and Ashton Jeanty showed that not even the league’s best defense can stop him from scoring touchdowns of 60 and 51 yards on a pass and a big run late in the fourth quarter.

That had the Texans pressing at home as a 14.5-point favorite to a terrible team that’s been shutout 31-0 twice this year. But I thought Pete Carroll’s team blew it in two spots here:

  • Down 16-14 in the fourth quarter, why are you punting on 4th-and-3 at the Houston 46? Your season is long over. Go for it. You have nothing to lose. The Texans ended up driving 88 yards for a long touchdown drive to make it a 23-14 game. Again, if the worst-case scenario (giving up a TD) happens, you at least would rather it happens quicker on a shorter field than for a long drive like that.
  • Then down 23-21, the Raiders had a great shot to force a 3-and-out and get the ball back right away for a game-winning field goal march, but the defense was penalized for pass interference on 3rd-and-20 from the Houston 7. Brutal. Stroud converted a few more first downs and ran out the final 5:19 to win 23-21.

So, I think this scare throws some cold water on the Houston run to the playoffs. But they are going to be a tough out for anyone they play. And they won’t have to face Jeanty in January. Maybe never if the Raiders don’t get their shit together.

Vikings at Giants: Rough Day at the Office

I knew I liked the under on Jaxson Dart’s passing props against a complex defense like Minnesota, but God damn. Dart finished the game and still finished just 7-of-13 passing for 33 yards with 5 sacks, a deflected pick, and 2 runs for 7 yards. For some reason, it took 17 snaps from scrimmage for the Giants before Dart threw an actual pass in this game.

J.J. McCarthy had a rough afternoon too that wasn’t always his fault as he had a tipped pick. He also got away with a pick-six after Abdul Carter lined up offsides. D’oh.

But McCarthy left another game injured, and Max Brosmer ended up converting a 3rd-and-17 with a great catch by Justin Jefferson to lead to a game-winning field goal in a 16-13 final. Dart had his chance to answer but was sacked on fourth down at midfield.

So, Brosmer has a game-winning drive in the NFL before Dart…

Falcons at Cardinals: More Desert Doom

Props to the Atlanta defense for doing probably the best job of anyone against Jacoby Brissett this year. They held him to 203 yards, had a game-sealing interception, only one touchdown pass, and they held Trey McBride to 27 yards in the 26-19 win.

Not even Atlanta’s historic brand of choking could help Brissett complete the late 10-point comeback. His 7-27 (.206) record at game-winning drive opportunities is the worst among active starters.

Chiefs at Titans: Going Out Sad

People will say the Chiefs (6-9) just tanked after getting eliminated from the playoffs last week, and maybe there’s some truth to that. But aside from adding Rashee Rice and Tyquan Thornton to this week’s injury report, it’s largely the same roster they’ve been struggling with the last few weeks minus Patrick Mahomes at quarterback.

In a 26-9 loss to Tennessee, one of the worst teams this year, the Chiefs averaged just 14.4 yards per drive and scored 9 points on 10 possessions. They may have lost Gardner Minshew to a torn ACL too, setting up Christmas night with Oladokun against the Denver defense. Sounds fun.

But quarterback injuries aside, the Chiefs ran through many of their same issues from the whole season: Bad penalties, bad special teams penalties like lining up offsides on a field goal on 4th-and-1, no running game, poor on third down, etc.

For as bad as the Chiefs were in an infamous 27-3 loss in Tennessee in 2021, a 12-5 team that earned the No. 1 seed, the Chiefs still averaged 37.5 yards per drive that day behind Mahomes. This? This is unwatchable, and it’s hard to believe we’re likely going to see the final games of Travis Kelce’s career play out this way.

Just going out sad.

Chargers at Cowboys: Receivers + Defense

One of my favorite underdog picks this week was the Chargers (+2.5) on the road in Dallas. Why? I knew Justin Herbert would roast that defense, and he sure did with 300 passing yards, no sacks, 3 total touchdowns, and he had a key 34-yard scramble on third down in the fourth quarter when the Chargers led 24-17. That led to a field goal and helped open up a big lead.

The Cowboys had some big strikes early for Dak Prescott’s offense, but after they were already eliminated on Saturday by Philadelphia’s win, they didn’t show up for the rest of the game, getting blanked in another second half in the 34-17 loss.

But it was so fitting to see George Pickens put up big numbers in a game that no longer mattered after he did so little in the previous two losses to the Lions and Vikings. Meanwhile, the Chargers came in with good receivers and a sound defense to take it to the Cowboys. Just better team building and coaching all around for the Chargers.

Jets at Saints: No Picks Again

With two games left against Drake Maye and Josh Allen, we really could see the 2025 Jets get through a full 17-game season without the defense getting a single interception. That’s unfathomable if you watched all the tipped balls getting picked off on Sunday. That kind of fluke play should be easy for the Jets to get on the board at least once in 15 games, but it’s never happened for Aaron Glenn’s unit.

Even though the Saints won 29-6, rookie Tyler Shough threw 49 passes for a season-high 308 yards as Kellen Moore was helping him get those reps in. The Saints are going to be one of the trendiest division winner picks in 2026, and I totally get it.

But the Jets are not a good litmus test for anything.

Eagles at Commanders: The NFC East Streak Is Over

A quick peek back to Saturday’s games, one of the wildest streaks in the 32-game era is over, and there’s a great chance we never see it again. The Eagles have repeated as NFC East champs, the first team to do so since the Eagles in 2001-04.

Every other division’s had at least two repeat winners in that time. The longest active drought is one year, and that might actually only go up to two years if the Seahawks can win the NFC West from the Rams, which they are favored to do now. The whole AFC is on the verge of a new winner this year. The NFC North is likely slipping from Detroit, and the Bucs are losing control of the NFC South. That just leaves Philly as the lone repeat with the Rams still alive too.

It was always the shared quarterback dominance (and quarterback injuries) that allowed this NFC East streak to go on from 2005-2024. One year it’d be Eli Manning, the next it’d be Donovan McNabb, then Tony Romo, or the random year by RG3 or Kirk Cousins.

This was supposed to be Jayden Daniels’ year after reaching the NFC Championship Game with the greatest rookie season ever. But the Commanders limped into Saturday’s game with 4 wins, then lost Marcus Mariota in the third quarter. That led to Josh Johnson playing, and after his pick, the Eagles had no problems piling on some touchdowns to cover the spread and end this division race.

Just another rough year for Washington, but hopefully 2024 won’t be an outlier for Daniels.

Packers at Bears: Shades of the 2014 NFC Championship Game

We had a few island games where a starting quarterback was knocked out with an injury. Jordan Love’s concussion was a brutal hit and his presence was missed, but I thought Malik Willis played well given the Packers were built to throw that night with only two tight ends active and Josh Jacobs wasn’t 100% healthy.

But the Bears really stole this one as they typically do when they’re having their successful years. They were slow to get their field goal in before the two-minute warning in a 10-point game, which was bad, but then Brandon Bostick Romeo Doubs flubbed the onside kick recovery, and the Bears were able to get it back at midfield with plenty of time left.

So, just like two weeks ago, Caleb Williams had the ball in a 7-point game against the Packers. This time, he got the touchdown pass on 4th down, and I would have swore Ben Johnson would go for 2 with 24 seconds left, but the presence of Willis in the game instead of Love likely made him settle for overtime, which isn’t such a bad deal these days.

Then when you win the coin toss, I think kicking first is an easy choice in this matchup. Make Malik Willis drive down the field for a touchdown using three conventional downs, and even that won’t end the game. Good luck to him doing it too, and I also like the prospects of Caleb getting all four downs to work the ball down the field as he can be erratic and needs the extra down.

But it didn’t even come down to that as the Packers, much like the Bears early in the game, botched their fourth-down snap at the Chicago 36 after bypassing on a long field goal on a windy night. That was really the right call, but they just blew the snap.

Then in the other play that looked just like the 2014 NFC Championship Game when the Packers lost in OT at Seattle, Williams uncorked a top throw of the whole season with his 46-yard touchdown to D.J. Moore in good coverage in the end zone to end the game.

That gives the 2025 Bears a record six wins in one season after trailing in the final 2:00 of the fourth quarter. Insane stuff, and yeah, it’s probably going to bite them in the ass next year, but that can wait until then. They’re in position for the No. 2 seed, and it’s possible we see round 3 of this matchup in a few weeks.

I’d be more than content with that.

Next week: Serves the NFL right for trying to steal Christmas from the NBA with a bad triple-header where 5/6 teams likely miss the playoffs. But the Saturday lineup is excellent with Texans-Chargers and Ravens-Packers like little playoff games. Just might be Tyler Huntley vs. Malik Willis in that second one. Sunday has upset potential with Seahawks at Panthers, Jags at Colts, and we’ll see if Myles Garrett can break sack record vs. Steelers. Eagles-Bills is the late window choice, and it’s not quite as big of a game as expected. Bears-49ers on SNF is solid even though both teams have clinched a playoff spot already. MNF (Rams-Falcons) is basically to see if Stafford can solidify MVP or falter badly and lose it against that pass rush.