Year: 2019

Frank Gore: The Inconvenient Hall of Fame Case

~ Scott ~ 2 Comments

On Sunday, Frank Gore passed Barry Sanders as the third-leading rusher in NFL history with 15,289 yards. The 36-year-old is often mentioned as a future Hall of Famer, and his placement in rushing yards alone is a pretty strong argument for that. Among the 15 other running backs to rush for at least 12,000 yards, 13 of them are in Canton. Adrian Peterson is still playing, but he should be a lock as the best back of his era. The only eligible player not in is Edgerrin James, who has been getting closer in recent years. It may only be a matter of time for him.

But what about Gore? I made a Twitter poll to ask if he should get in on the first ballot, get in eventually down the road, or not make it at all.

The results were surprising (to me at least) in showing that a higher percentage of people (22%) thought he was worthy of first ballot than to not get in at all (13%). I don’t drive in huge traffic from the fan bases of the 49ers and Bills, so tribalism isn’t really driving it.

I’ll quickly point out that I don’t write any of this to demean Gore, who has a great life story. He was a third-round pick in a top-heavy 2005 draft for backs, but he’s outlasted all of those guys with ease despite tearing his ACL multiple times at Miami. He’s not just about rushing yards as he’s also caught 464 balls in his career and rarely had great quarterback play. Notice no one said this week that Gore surpassed Marshall Faulk by one yard for fourth all time in yards from scrimmage (19,155), which is arguably more impressive than the rushing feat.

His durability will be the stuff of legends, but is the HOF really just about longevity and are we okay with compilers going in so easily?

Let me make my position clear:

1. I think Frank Gore will get into the Hall of Fame one day.

2. I don’t think he deserves to go in on the first ballot (and he won’t).

3. I won’t be disappointed if he never goes in because I think he has the weakest case of all the 12,000-yard rushers.

Let’s address each point with its own section.

Part I: Gore Will Get Into Canton One Day

Hall of Fame voters reminds us of their “ok boomer” status best when it comes to love for running backs, the position many of them grew up watching as the hero of the offense. Inclusion in Canton at RB has been a bit easier than any other main position. That’s why not only will you see more modern-era running backs (32) in the HOF than quarterbacks (26) and wide receivers (27), but also more than linebackers (30) and defensive backs (30) despite those units having different positions among them.

Twenty-three of those 32 backs got in within five years of eligibility, but there have been some other cases that took years of debate. One of my favorite pieces I ever did at Bleacher Report was on Paul Hornung being the least deserving member in Canton. Hornung didn’t get in until his 15th year (12th as a finalist). Voters have also let in senior nominees such as John Henry Johnson, Leroy Kelly, Doak Walker, and Floyd Little. So the bar has been set so low here that it looks kind of ridiculous any time one of those guys over 10,000 yards doesn’t get a bust too. Maybe it’s not a surprise that Fred Taylor and Ricky Watters are first-time semifinalists in 2020.

With Gore’s volume of numbers, it’s likely going to be too hard for voters not to scratch that running back itch again to get him in eventually. It will also help that he could reach 100 career touchdowns this season and help Buffalo to a playoff spot. There will come a day when the HOF voters are well-versed in the ways of Running Backs Don’t Matter, but in an era that isn’t going to feature many HOF cases for the position, there will be strong support for Gore.

Part II: Gore Is Not First Ballot Worthy

When it comes to first ballot, that should still be reserved for only the best of the best. Last year’s first-ballot class included Tony Gonzalez, Ed Reed and Champ Bailey, a trio no one reputable would argue with. The last five backs to go first ballot were LaDainian Tomlinson (2017), Marshall Faulk (2011), Emmitt Smith (2010), Barry Sanders (2004), and Marcus Allen (2003). In total, 15 backs in the modern era have gone first ballot.

Gore falls way short of that standard. In fact, it can be argued that he falls short of many standards for RBs in the HOF. I looked at the 26 HOF backs with at least 1,000 carries since 1950 and compared them to Gore. Three problematic results come back for Gore’s HOF case:

1. Gore Has Never Led the NFL in Anything

The most glaring fact is that Gore has never led the NFL in ANY statistic for a season. When you look at his Pro Football Reference page, there is nothing in bold in his stats.

Among those 26 HOF running backs:

Fifteen won a coveted rushing title (number of rushing titles in parenthesis): Jim Brown (8), Emmitt Smith (4), Eric Dickerson (4), Barry Sanders (4), O.J. Simpson (4), Earl Campbell (3), Leroy Kelly (2), Joe Perry (2), LaDainian Tomlinson (2), Walter Payton (1), Marcus Allen (1), Curtis Martin (1), Jim Taylor (1), Floyd Little (1), and Terrell Davis (1).

Four players without a rushing title led the league in rushing touchdowns: Lenny Moore led the NFL in yards from scrimmage and twice in total touchdowns. Marshall Faulk was an MVP and twice led the league in both yards from scrimmage and total touchdowns. Franco Harris led the league in rushing touchdowns (1976), won Offensive Rookie of the Year, won four Super Bowls (1 MVP), and is on the scoring end of the most famous play in NFL history (The Immaculate Reception). John Riggins led the NFL in rushing touchdowns in consecutive seasons (1983-84) after winning Super Bowl MVP in 1982.

Six others led the NFL in something in a season. Jerome Bettis and Tony Dorsett each led the NFL in carries once and also won Offensive Rookie of the Year. Thurman Thomas led the NFL in yards from scrimmage four times in a row and won an MVP (1991). Ollie Matson didn’t lead in any scrimmage stats, but he did lead multiple times as a dynamic return specialist. Hugh McElhenny and Larry Csonka each led the league in yards per carry once. Csonka was also a driving force behind the 1972-73 Dolphins, a two-time Super Bowl winner and the only perfect 17-0 season in NFL history.

The only player among the 26 I didn’t mention is John Henry Johnson, which is fitting because he built the bulk of his case in his thirties and it took 16 years for voters to put him in. Johnson had only rushed for 2,196 yards through his age-30 season, but a move to Pittsburgh changed everything. He rushed for 4,607 yards the rest of his career. The only player to rush for more yards after age 31 than Johnson is…Frank Gore (5,322 yards and counting).

That’s interesting, but it gets even better, or I should say more problematic for Gore.

2. Gore Has Never Been Named First-Team All-Pro

Among these 26 HOF backs, 25 of them were named First-Team All-Pro by the AP at least once in their career. The only one who wasn’t was — you guessed it — John Henry Johnson. Gore has been to five Pro Bowls, but he too has never been an All-Pro. Of course, you might say “well if Johnson made it to Canton, then Gore has to, right?” Gore in his thirties was basically Johnson in his thirties, but he also was productive in his twenties. Sure, but the players in this era get held to higher standards.

So Gore has never led the league in anything and never been named an All-Pro. The third problem may be his biggest since it attacks the stat he’s known best for: his rushing yards

3. Gore Has One Top 5 Rushing Season in His Career

In his second season (2006), Gore broke out with 1,695 rushing yards, good for third in the NFL. He’d finish in the top 10 five more times in rushing yards in his career, but those finishes were 6th, 10th, and three times at ninth. Keep in mind the bulk of these were in recent years when the NFL has moved away from workhorses and gone to more committee approaches.

Still, just one season in the top five in rushing yards (his best stat) is not good for a HOF case. I looked at the 16 HOF backs with at least 2,000 carries so I can compare Gore to players with a lot of volume. The 16 HOFers averaged 4.8 seasons in the top 5 in rushing in their careers. John Riggins is the only one of the 16 to have just one top five rushing season in his career. But I already highlighted some of Riggins’ other accomplishments that make him look like a better candidate than Gore. Marcus Allen had two such seasons, but he was famously misused by Al Davis as part of their ongoing beef. Allen still won a rushing title, MVP, Super Bowl MVP, OROY and was twice voted All-Pro in his career. He’s also sixth all time in touchdowns (145) and not 25th like Gore (98).

No one is going to be in a rush to put a player into Canton who was never considered the best at his position and rarely in the running for top five in any given season.

Part III: Gore’s HOF Case: For Who, For What?

My third and final point was that you shouldn’t find it disappointing if Gore never makes the HOF, because he has the weakest case of any 12,000-yard rusher. You almost could argue he has the weakest case of any of the 31 backs with 10,000 rushing yards in NFL history.

  • Gore didn’t win Offensive Rookie of the Year.
  • Gore was never a first-team All-Pro.
  • Gore never won an MVP (never received a vote)
  • Gore didn’t win a Super Bowl/MVP (played fine in one, but no game-winning touchdown).
  • Gore never won a rushing title.
  • Gore never led the league in any stat.
  • Gore had one season with double-digit rush/receiving touchdowns.
  • Gore rushed for more than 1,214 yards once in his career (26 backs since 2005 have done it at least twice).
  • Gore’s most memorable play is…help me out here.

It’s essentially the least accomplished career for a high-volume runner. When you try to find NFL records for Gore, you basically land on two that show his durability and longevity. He’s the only player with 1,200 yards from scrimmage in 12 seasons (all consecutive too) and he’s the only player to rush for 500 yards in 15 straight seasons.

That’s pretty good, but I know I would trade his last five years (three in Indy, one in Miami, now in Buffalo) for one season where he was MVP, or a 2,000-yard rushing season, or one with 30 touchdowns. Something really memorable rather than just cranking out yards at a sub-4.0 rate for bad offenses.

The only other record is something I alluded to earlier: Gore has the most rushing yards in NFL history for anyone in their thirties (6,450 and counting). That’s awesome, but it’s taken him 105 games to get to that point. Walter Payton only played 60 games in his thirties and he still had a better YPC (4.35) doing it than Gore (4.01) and scored four more rushing touchdowns (32 vs. 28). Had Payton hung around for three more years when he was no longer as effective, does that really make his legacy better? For Gore the answer seems to be yes, that’s elevating his case even if he’s no longer truly elevating a team. Rookie Devin Singletary has been the best lead back for the Bills this year.

By the way, Gore ranked 20th in rushing yards (8,839) in his twenties. That’s certainly good, but several of the players ranked ahead of him have had no HOF traction since their careers didn’t last as long as Gore’s has.

So when exactly did Gore become a HOFer? For some people it seems to be on Sunday when he passed Barry Sanders, who infamously retired after just 10 seasons. Sanders’ numbers would have been beyond reproach had he continued on while Gore’s numbers are only in the conversation because he refuses to stop playing.

Was Gore a HOFer after his 10 years in San Francisco (2005-2014) ended? He hasn’t made a Pro Bowl or played in a playoff game since. During those 10 years, he played in 148 games and had nice numbers: 11,073 rushing yards, 64 TD, 4.5 YPC, 13,956 yards from scrimmage, 75 touchdowns.

Nice, but had he stopped he would never get serious HOF consideration. Here are how other running backs (min. 10,000 rushing yards) stack up through 148 regular season games:

Gore148

Gore’s 11,073 rushing yards thru 148 games has him ranked 17th with only one HOFer (Franco Harris) behind him. Notice some of the names ahead of him. You have HOF semifinalists this year in James and Taylor, and also Corey Dillon and Steven Jackson. Someone like Dillon has an interesting case because he did have two top five rushing seasons, including a huge role on the 2004 Patriots, arguably their best title team. But Dillon was done after his age-32 season.

Also take notice of LeSean McCoy ranked close to Gore, but he has more touchdowns and catches. McCoy was a first-team All-Pro in 2011 when he scored 20 touchdowns and again in 2013 when he won a rushing title. He’s still chugging along at 31 with the Chiefs. Would hanging around for four more years and getting over 17,000 yards from scrimmage and 100 TD make McCoy a HOFer? What if he wins a ring with Patrick Mahomes as his QB? Then we also have the cases of Watters, Marshawn Lynch, Eddie George, and not even pictured are the likes of Tiki Barber, Shaun Alexander, Warrick Dunn, Chris Johnson, etc.

That’s really my sticking point with Gore. He didn’t lock up a HOF spot in San Francisco, so what is it about the last five years that changed that status? Since 2015, Gore’s teams have gone 35-38 (.479) with him and only Buffalo this year may make the playoffs. He’s rushed for 4,216 yards and 15 touchdowns at 3.91 YPC in that time. He’s had six 100-yard rushing games, which ties him for 24th since 2015, and his teams were just 3-3 in those games (those are usually wins in the NFL).

Is it okay to accept someone compiling numbers as the final stamp of approval on a HOF case? That generally feels wrong to me, but it seems to be what’s accepted in the case of Gore, because I sure don’t think he distances himself from his worthy peers on value or really fits in with the standards set by the Gold Jacket members he’ll likely join one day.

The good news is he’s not finished yet. Maybe Gore rushes for 110 yards and a touchdown in the playoffs to shock the Patriots in a major upset. (Note: I swear on my life I picked that yardage at random before seeing that he already rushed for 109 yards in the Week 4 loss vs. New England). Maybe that becomes his shining moment.

The cherry on top to a career that has stood the test of time. That would get my endorsement, but for now, I just see myself picking five names of modern players year after year who were more deserving than Gore.

I think the voters will too for some time.

NFL Week 12 Predictions: RC Cola Popping Edition

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

So last week kind of sucked in the NFL, which was my concern going into last Sunday. The early afternoon slate was especially low on drama. A total of six teams won by at least 17 points in Week 11, the most since Week 17 last year. Some teams clearly mailed in their performance to end that season, so this was especially one-sided.

When I look at the 1 P.M. slate for Week 12, I see very little to get excited for. My preference would be to just watch Seahawks-Eagles with some RedZone sprinkled in, because it’s one of the closest games of the season by many projection models. Could be a true pick ’em with a Seattle team that’s been scraping by all the close ones against an Eagles team that can stop the run and should be desperately playing to hang onto division title hopes.

But instead I’ll probably be focusing on the Steelers looking to continue their mastery in Cincinnati, or perhaps add another soul-crushing loss to a terrible team to Mike Tomlin’s resume.

Steelers at Bengals (+6.5): Don’t Bet on 0-16

It’s a safe bet to pick a team to NOT go 0-16 in the NFL. Only the 2008 Lions and 2017 Browns have done it. Meanwhile, 10 teams have finished 1-15 and 32 teams have finished 2-14 since 1978. The 0-10 Bengals have a favorable schedule coming up for a win, but none may be sweeter than this opportunity against Pittsburgh (5-5).

I’ve probably been writing about this for a decade now,  but Mike Tomlin’s Steelers love to come up small in the small games, especially on the road against teams they’re expected to beat. Losing to the 0-10 Bengals as a 6.5 point underdog would certainly fit that bill. Since 2007, the Steelers are 16-9 (.640) straight up and 8-17 (.320) against the spread on the road as a 6+ point favorite.

It’s a bit surprising the Steelers remain a 6.5 point favorite. They beat the Bengals 27-3 at Heinz Field earlier this season, but they won’t have QB1 (Ben Roethlisberger), RB1 (James Conner), or WR1 (JuJu Smith-Schuster) for this game. You’d have to go back to 1999, if not further, to find a Pittsburgh offense this devoid of talent, and I’m saying that even with the consideration of the RB and WR returning soon. Oh, not to mention the center is suspended.

Yes, Mason Rudolph has already won a game against the Bengals, but he is coming off one of the worst QB performances of the season. There’s also obviously some controversy surrounding him from his role in the Myles Garrett incident. There’s no Maurkice Pouncey at center because of his suspension from the fight. The Steelers are going to rely heavily on defense to win this game, which it can do with the way it has gotten turnovers this year. Andy Dalton was also sacked a career-high 8 times in the last meeting. Ryan Finley has taken over and done nothing to really impress anyone. He’s not afraid to scramble though. The Bengals have been competitive at times with 3 blown fourth quarter leads, and the running game has gone for over 150 yards in consecutive weeks. It’s likely to be a game decided by turnovers.

One of the most stunning stats I’ve ever seen in the NFL is this one: ex-Cincinnati head coach Marvin Lewis was 2-16 at home against the Steelers. Rookie head coach Zac Taylor has done practically nothing to establish a name for himself this season, but reversing that home trend and pulling off an upset win over the Steelers would easily be the team’s highlight this year.

With the Steelers lacking so much talent on offense, I feel like this is a great upset to pick. Keep the RC Cola bottles ready, Detroit and Cleveland. Your 0-16 club may be closing up membership for at least another year very soon.

GOTW: Cowboys at Patriots (-3)

It sure would be nice if this turns out to be a great game seeing as how Jags-Titans is the only other game scheduled for the late afternoon. I’m not sure how that happened, but clearly the NFL wants to milk what should be Brady/Belichick vs. Dallas for the last time.

Standing in the Cowboys’ way is The Clapper (Jason Garrett). The thought of him outsmarting Belichick is why I have no issue picking the Patriots in this one, but there are reasons to be optimistic about Dallas’ chances. Concern is do they run Zeke too much and put Dak Prescott in tough third-and-long situations. It could be tempting to run if you look at the success Cleveland and Baltimore had doing so against New England this year. If it’s working you really can’t knock it, but Dallas will have to be careful to not fall into the trap of continuing to slam Elliott into the line on so many early downs.

This is the best pass defense Prescott has seen in his NFL career. He’s playing better than ever this season, but he’ll definitely have to bring his A game to succeed in this one. If the Patriots want to take Amari Cooper away with Stephon Gilmore, then I think Dallas is still fine in this matchup. Michael Gallup and Randall Cobb are healthy and playing well. The tight ends can contribute as well. Cooper only had 38 yards in Detroit last week, but Dak still threw for 444. Dallas (52.1%) is the only offense in the league converting more than 50% on third down in 2019. That’s helped this offense lead the league in yards per game, yards per play and first downs per game thru Week 11. This offense has evolved thanks to the progression of a young QB and new OC Kellen Moore.

I just worry about this coaching staff preparing for a team they only see once every four years. The Cowboys have another game like that on Thanksgiving against Buffalo, so a lot of eyes will be on them this week. It’s the type of week that could launch Dak on an MVP path, or sink this team’s season if the Eagles can go on a run too.

The Patriots have really only played four teams of note this season: PIT, BUF, BAL, PHI. Everyone else has a losing record. If you look at the expected points added breakdown on Pro Football Reference, their three worst games on offense were against PHI/BAL/BUF. Their four worst games on defense were against BUF/PIT/PHI/BUF. Dallas has played a similarly weak schedule (plays the AFC East and NFC East), but this is one of the best challenges the Patriots will see all year. Dallas doesn’t have a great defense, but it has been respectable most weeks.

I don’t want to belabor the point about NE’s mediocre offense, because it should be obvious at this point. They basically peaked in the first two weeks of the season when they played a Pittsburgh defense they always murder at home and a Miami team that was completely lost. Since then the offense has rarely been good. Brady’s TD% is a career low 3.5% right now. Replacing Rob Gronkowski with an ancient Ben Watson isn’t doing a whole lot. They’ve already gone through Antonio Brown and Josh Gordon. It’s basically Julian Edelman moving the chains and their big plays are coming down to James White turning a screen pass into 30+ yards.

Only the Patriots can trade a 2nd-round pick for a 30-year-old WR who was averaging a career-low in yards per catch and have people think it’s a great move. That’s Mohamed Sanu and now he’s injured and may not even be active. Oh and the Patriots stink at running the ball this year to boot. I’d love to see Dallas just double up on Edelman and shrink the field, forcing Brady to beat them deep.

New England basically loses one home game a year and blow one 4Q lead a year, so if there’s a game on the schedule where that’s most likely to happen this season, it’s probably this one. However, keep in mind that Dallas is 0-3 at 4QC opportunities this season as we knew regression was going to come in that area for them. Still, you can trust Dak on a game-winning drive opportunity. The Patriots offense has yet to have one this season since the defense always has them ahead, and they couldn’t do any better than trail by 10 in their lone loss in Baltimore.

I think this one goes down to the final drive, but I’m still going to take Belichick over Garrett every time.

NFL Week 12 Predictions

I had Houston by 6 points on TNF, but of course they wouldn’t kick a late FG and only won by 3. I should probably feel lucky that the Texans even won that game.

2019Wk12

The Bengals are not my only upset pick this week. I think the Jets take care of Oakland in the early game after showing some life offensively last week. I also have the Buccaneers beating Atlanta for no good reason other than the NFC South doesn’t make sense right now, but I still don’t believe the Falcons have magically fixed their defense the last two weeks.

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NFL Week 11 Predictions: Wentz and The Crown Edition

~ Scott ~ 1 Comment

I said this about the NFL’s 100th season two months ago today:

I’m not sure things have gotten that much better, but Week 10 was without question the best week of this season. Eleven of the 13 games had a 4QC opportunity, the first week with a double-digit number of such games this season. Three underdogs of more than 6 points won straight up — there was one in Weeks 1-3 and zero in Weeks 7-9. The single best hour of the sports week, roughly 3:15 to 4:15 P.M. EST, finally delivered late-game drama in multiple cities at the same time. Thursday night was a comical Philip Rivers/Chargers loss. Sunday night was a good MIN/DAL game. Monday night was the Game of the Week on paper, and while it was sloppily played, SEA-SF delivered a memorable one that went down to the final snap of overtime.

That’s the NFL we crave and eagerly wait seven months for each year. Now that every team has a loss, perhaps we’re in store for a great second half.

Then Thursday night happened. The Steelers laid an egg in Cleveland with Mason Rudolph turning in one of the worst QB performances of the season. Then the absurd brawl happened at the end of the game and we weren’t even talking about Cleveland’s win over its chief rival anymore. It was about the ugliness from Myles Garrett going after Rudolph with his own helmet.

I’m not interested in a hot take or in-depth analysis of that moment. You saw it. Punishments were handed out quickly and look fair to me. There’s no place for that in the NFL. Fortunately, Garrett and Maurkice Pouncey won’t be on the field when these teams meet again in a couple of weeks. Rudolph probably shouldn’t be either, but only because I think he’s worthy of being benched for playing terrible football.

If only there was another readily available QB the Steelers could bring in to try salvaging this season…

From one shitshow to another, the league took the bizarre move to host a workout for Colin Kaepernick in Atlanta on Saturday. Again, not a story I feel like recapping all the details of while I try to squeeze this out on a Saturday evening before watching a bunch of TV. But it was indeed a shitshow with the venue being moved at the last moment and Hue Jackson, who was set to run it, opting to head back to the airport. Add another loss to his career total. The workout eventually took place at a high school field, though it appears barely a handful of the 24 expected teams actually attended it.

Hopefully Sunday won’t be the type of shitshow this week has been so far for the NFL. So rather than talk about Garrett and Kaepernick, I’m going to keep my blood pressure down and talk about…Brady-Wentz I.

…Shit.

GOTW: Patriots at Eagles (+4.5)

It’s rare to see two teams meeting after a bye week and it’s not the Super Bowl. Clearly the NFL thought highly of this Super Bowl 52 rematch. One problem is the Eagles come in at just 5-4 without an overly impressive offense or defense this season. The Patriots (8-1), coming off their first loss in Baltimore, still have the top defense, but the offense is in contention for the worst in the Brady-Belichick era. Brady and Carson Wentz come in not even ranked in the top 12 in DVOA or the top 18 in YPA this season.

I’m seeing the Eagles as a 4.5-point underdog, which is exactly what they were in SB 52 when they won 41-33 behind an MVP performance by Nick Foles. Those teams were very different that night than what they are right now, and it’s not just about the QB difference. The Eagles were much stronger on both sides of the ball while the Patriots are playing better defense now (but definitely a big decline offensively). I certainly wouldn’t expect a repeat of the game with the most total yardage in NFL history.

Head coach Doug Pederson is 3-5 straight up as an underdog of more than 4 points, but that’s 3-1 with Foles and 0-4 with Wentz as his QB.

CWPH

Sunday is Wentz’s 50th NFL game. Given that he still hasn’t started a playoff game, you could say a win here would be the biggest achievement of Wentz’s NFL career.

It’s fitting that Wentz resembles Prince Harry. Both receive massive media coverage and the respect of royalty despite not really accomplishing much of anything. Harry is sixth in line to the British throne. Wentz is maybe sixth in line to the throne of the best QB in the NFL. I’ll spare you any King of Kings talk for Brady, because this one is about Wentz.

I’ve been sitting on that comparison for months and it just so happens to work perfectly on a weekend where Wentz is playing a big game and The Crown Season 3 is on Netflix. It’s absolutely true though. Wentz was hailed as a god just three games into his career in 2016. Remember the “pre-snap Peyton, post-snap Rodgers” takes? It’s not just Philly media either. This season I’ve seen national voices (Colin Cowherd and Dan Orlovsky) praise Wentz after managerial wins over the Packers and Bills. When the numbers don’t back it up, just stick with the eye test and you can’t lose that argument. You just know you’re seeing something special even if there isn’t tangible proof of it.

Fortunately, people don’t wait too long on quarterbacks before moving on to shiny, new things. I mentioned Wentz being sixth in line to the throne. Well, this season has had a clear top five in QB performances:

The top 5 in QBR all happen to be African-American quarterbacks doing outstanding things in 2019. Russell Wilson has been a known commodity and is having the most MVP caliber season of his career. Patrick Mahomes hit superstar status last year with his MVP season and has still been great this year in spite of the rest of his team. Lamar Jackson just handed the Patriots a loss in prime time and could have a very historic season with what he’s doing as a true dual-threat with his passing and rushing. Deshaun Watson is reminding people that he was going to have the best rookie QB season ever until he tore his ACL in 2017. Dak Prescott still doesn’t get as much respect as he deserves, but people are coming around to just how good he is in Dallas. I’ve repeatedly said his 2016 was the best rookie QB season ever.

We’re getting close to that point where the old guard is going to enter retirement. That’s Brady, Brees, Roethlisberger, Eli, Rivers. We’ve already lost Andrew Luck at a surprisingly young age. Matt Ryan and Aaron Rodgers are getting up there, but could still play well into the next decade.

There’s going to be that transition period where the young quarterbacks become the best in the game. Perhaps we’re already there in the NFL’s 100th season. Wentz was expected to be right in that group, but I don’t think he’s as good as that group of five. I’m not even convinced he’s better than Kirk Cousins.

Since the Eagles and Patriots only meet once every four years, this could very well be the first and only meeting between Wentz and Brady/Belichick. If you know me well enough, you know I won’t just accept an Eagles win as a great Wentz accomplishment or an Eagles loss as a Wentz failure. I’m going to watch this game closely to see if he plays well against a top-tier defense/secondary. While I think the Eagles have a shaky secondary, I don’t think they’ll be embarrassed this week and the game should be within reach late.

I want to see Wentz play really well. I want to see him accomplish something with this performance. It’s also a pretty big game since Philadelphia is in such a tight race for the NFC East with Dallas. If the Eagles can win this one at home, that gives them an advantage over Dallas, which has to go to NE (Week 12) and we know how tough it is to win there. This could propel a run for the Eagles with Wentz instead of Foles this time.

Even if it’s just for one day, I want to see what others think they see with Wentz. While no crowns or rings get handed out in Week 11, I think it’d be a big one for him.

NFL Week 11 Predictions

I had the Steelers on TNF, and yeah, that didn’t go so well. Got the under at least.

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My big upset pick this week is Arizona against the 49ers. I just think a 5-quarter, emotional game on MNF and the injury report for the 49ers looks favorable for an Arizona team that played them well a couple weeks ago. Might regret the SU pick, but that would be my big upset for Week 11.

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NFL Week 10 Predictions: Midseason MVP Edition

~ Scott ~ 2 Comments

Now that we are past the halfway point of the 2019 season, this is a good time to talk about the MVP candidates, especially since my pick is playing in the Game of the Week.

Through nine weeks, Russell Wilson is the clear choice for MVP if we had to award it today. He leads the NFL in touchdown passes (22), TD% (7.5%), INT% (0.3%), passer rating (118.2) and QBR (78.6). He’s the main reason Seattle, with a pretty weak defense, is 7-2 and has also led four 4QC/GWD (also leads the league).

Patrick Mahomes, Deshaun Watson, Dak Prescott and Lamar Jackson have also done great things this year — wow, Bill Polian might have a stroke — but Wilson has been the most consistently spectacular. I don’t think this is a tough choice as of right now, but things could change in a hurry.

The Seahawks are scheduled to play five straight games against winning teams, including four straight in prime time. This could either lock the MVP up for Wilson on big stages, or see his campaign go down in flames should Seattle falter and miss the playoffs.

While the close wins to overcome the defense have been strong evidence for Wilson’s MVP campaign, the upcoming schedule should definitely give some pause to whether or not they can sustain this success. The Seahawks are just +18 in scoring differential this season. That makes them the 9th team since 1940 to start 7-2 or better with a scoring differential no greater than 20 points:

I will point out that all of those teams made the playoffs. Some reached conference title games and the Super Bowl (1976 OAK even won it all), but this isn’t done often. The NFC is very competitive with what looks like nine teams fighting for six playoff spots. The 49ers (8-0) are the last undefeated team and could force the Seahawks into a Wild Card berth at best. Should Seattle slip in these head-to-head games with their direct competition for those wild cards (Vikings/Eagles/Rams/Panthers all come to mind), then you could see a scenario where a 10-6 Seattle team is left out of the playoffs. Even if Wilson still has the stellar numbers, I can’t imagine anyone voting for a MVP on a non-playoff team. I wouldn’t outside of extreme circumstances, which I don’t think will be present this year since the other QBs are going to have their own cases.

Mahomes still has the best shot in my view, especially if he helps KC run the table (that would mean a win in NE in Week 14). I don’t think missing essentially 2.75 games will detract voters enough, and if they care to dig into the numbers a little deeper, Matt Moore’s QBR (57.7) is nearly 20 points below Mahomes’ (77.2).

Back to the NFC West, the 49ers had one of their best challenges this year in Arizona last time out. Now they will host Wilson and the Seahawks on Monday night. I was not buying into the hype of the SF defense based on the schedule it started the season with — similar to the Patriots’ first eight games compared to what the Ravens brought to the table last week. With the 49ers, there have been great resources poured into the DL over the years. Nick Bosa, Dee Ford and Kwon Alexander (injured reserve) were big additions this year. It is the third year for Kyle Shanahan/Robert Saleh as a HC//DC duo. But I still think the schedule has been very advantageous and the 49ers will have to prove their success when they play Seattle (2x), Green Bay, Baltimore, New Orleans and the Rams again. The schedule is about to get a lot tougher and we’ve seen (a la 2013 Chiefs) how that can expose a paper tiger.

Now if Wilson can pull off this road win, then that’s just going to be another pro argument for his MVP case. He has rarely produced big numbers against the 49ers in his career. While he’s 12-3 against them, he’s never thrown for more than 260 yards in any of those games. The 49ers also have an offense that can score this year with a much better QB, so this probably isn’t going to be a game Seattle can win with < 21 points (Note: do have to monitor if George Kittle will play or not). The 49ers aren’t as stout against the run (20th in DVOA compared to No. 1 vs. pass), so I wouldn’t be surprised if the Seahawks revert to their run-heavy approach this week, putting the onus on Wilson to make things happen on 3rd downs and in the 4Q.

Monday is a very important game for both of these teams. The rematch isn’t until Week 17 where the 49ers could possibly be locked into a bye and could rest starters. Hey, maybe that helps the Seahawks make the playoffs in the end, but as long as the division title is still up for grabs, it would be a real MVP move for Wilson to ball out and get the win on Monday night.

I don’t think that’s going to happen, so expect this to be a topic again down the road.

NFL Week 10 Predictions

I had the Raiders winning 27-23 on TNF and they won 26-24.

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I’m glad to see Mahomes back. Need everything you can get to spice up a Tennessee game. I think the Browns can beat Buffalo, but at this point I’m just not going to trust them and roll with the better defense. I like Arians to hang a good number on his old team. I actually think the Jets step up in the terrible New York battle. I have no idea what to expect from Cincinnati QB Ryan Finley. Can he get a backdoor cover like Dalton did against Baltimore? I’m just going to lean on the Ravens to keep rolling. Doing stupid things like trusting the Jets and Bears is probably why I haven’t done so well this year at picking games, but here I am again going with Chicago after reading some shaky reports on Stafford’s health. I think the Steelers can slow down McVay’s offense, but I don’t trust Mason Rudolph against a defense with elite players when he might not have a healthy JuJu available (James Conner already out).

Finally, I noted that Kirk Cousins (0-25) and Dak Prescott (3-13) are a combined 3-38 in their careers when their passer rating is under 85.0. That’s the biggest disparity from record in games above 85.0 among active QBs. So it would be surprising to see one of them win without playing modestly well Sunday night. I figure a Kirk Cousins team on the road against a good pass rush and team that can score sounds like a Vikings loss to me, but we’ll see.

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NFL Week 9 Predictions: QB Tiers Edition

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

This week I posted an update to the “QB Tiers in My Eyes” which isn’t necessarily a ranking of the QBs in the league, but the groupings in which I view them right now with a big emphasis on track records.

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I just wanted to include 32 entries, but you could easily put Eli Manning in the “So Long, Farewell” section with Joe Flacco and Andy Dalton. You could also create a “Tall, White, Named Allen” tier for Josh, Kyle and Brandon if you want. I’m not sure where the league keeps finding these guys but three of them are starting this weekend. I really couldn’t tell you anything about Brandon Allen, so good job, John Elway. Dwayne Haskins also seems to be taking over in Washington, so you could add him to the rookie tier (I made this on Wednesday).

My biggest takeaway from this is that people need to chill with lumping in everyone as great or terrible. That’s why the “Not Great, Not Terrible” tier is the biggest with 10 QBs. These are all guys fighting for that top 10 status, and in some weeks they absolutely look that part, and in other weeks they’re very disappointing to watch. They’re just not consistent enough to get into a better tier for now.

For the first ballot HOF locks, it’s not that I think those are the four best QBs in the league right now, but they are the most proven and deserve the most trust. “The Holy Trinity” is more in line with the best right now in 2019, but I also grouped them together because I see Mahomes, Wilson and Watson as possibly the top trio of QBs for the 2020s as well. Those are the guys you really want to watch on a weekly basis.

Matt Ryan is someone I generally would rank in a top two tier, but I don’t think he’s a lock for the HOF (certainly not a first ballot), and he didn’t fit in with the “trinity” vibe I was going for in the other group. But it’s not a coincidence that he’s at the very top of my next tier. The tiers are almost in order of best to worst, but not exactly.

If anything, the Carson Wentz fanboys need to just cool it and realize their guy isn’t showing us anything that a lot of other active QBs haven’t already achieved in this league. And don’t forget about Nick Foles, the Unicorn. I find him impossible to rank on something like this, but hopefully he’ll come back soon.

It Goes A-1, 2, 3

I just want to highlight the three games I’ll be watching at length on Sunday.

Texans at Jaguars (+1.5)

If they’re going to put a London game I wouldn’t mind watching on at 9:30 AM EST, then at least they’re doing it after I get an extra hour tonight for the end of daylight-saving time. I’m just not sure if the game will be worth watching until the second half anyway since the Texans tend to start slowly. I want to take this Houston team seriously, but with the injuries mounting up (J.J. Watt to IR again) it’s getting harder to buy this team as a real contender. It’s good for Deshaun Watson’s MVP candidacy, but they expect him to deliver so much on a weekly basis and I think the Jaguars are game enough to steal this one.

Colts at Steelers (+1)

The only thing more surprising than how rarely these AFC teams meet — this is the 10th time since 2002 — is how rarely they have their star quarterback in the lineup when they do. Ben Roethlisberger and Peyton Manning (Indy days) only met three times, including that playoff game in 2005. They had a fourth meeting scheduled for 2011, but Manning missed that entire season for his neck surgeries. Roethlisberger vs. Andrew Luck has technically been scheduled five times, but only the first game (2014) actually had both in the lineup. It was quite the offensive show with Pittsburgh winning 51-34 with Ben having one of the best passing games in NFL history. In 2015, Luck was absent with a lacerated kidney. In 2016, Luck only missed one game, but it was the Thanksgiving one against Pittsburgh. Luck then missed all of 2017 while both quarterbacks are out of the picture this weekend with Luck’s retirement and Ben’s elbow surgery.

So that leaves Jacoby Brissett, Mason Rudolph, and a lot to be desired. This game also won’t have T.Y. Hilton and it doesn’t sound like James Conner will go for Pittsburgh. I will point out that all three of Pittsburgh’s wins were in prime time against really incompetent teams (CIN/LAC/MIA), but they also have three losses where they played SEA/SF/BAL very tough so it’s hard to figure this team out right now. Just like the Colts had a tougher time with the Broncos and Raiders at home as they did with the Chiefs and Texans in wins.

It could easily be another ugly game, which the Colts have won their fair share of already this season. The Steelers have been feasting on turnovers and could get after Brissett in this matchup. I think if Rudolph is trusted more to take shots to his wide receivers then the Steelers will be able to score enough for another win over Indy. They’re 7-2 against the Colts since 2002.

It’s just that most of these games weren’t what they were expected to be when the schedules were made.

Patriots at Ravens (+3.5)

Finally, the Patriots are done with their Division III schedule and the season can really begin. I’m inclined to believe any team who is 40 yards away from losing to Matt Barkley is not going to go 19-0, such as the Patriots were in Buffalo earlier this season. I actually think the Browns outplayed them the final three quarters last week, but Cleveland had that horrific three turnovers in a row stretch that no team could recover from in New England.

I don’t think the 2019 Patriots are the greatest team ever and any claims of that are going to look absurd by season’s end. I don’t even think it’s the first or second best 8-0 run by these Patriots this century. I posted that earlier this week on Twitter when you look at their 8-0 start in 2007 and their 8-0 finish in the 2010 regular season. The latter is always overlooked because of how that team imploded in the first playoff game against the Jets, a team they beat 45-3 in December.

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The Patriots have fattened their record and gaudy defensive stats against a schedule likely to feature seven teams with a losing record by season’s end. Buffalo is the best team they played and Buffalo is statistically one of the worst 5-2 teams ever. You can’t throw the games away because they happened, but you also can’t tell me you can take the numbers at face value when the competition is this bad.

The Steelers are the only team the Patriots throttled in a way no one else has this year so far, but think about that matchup logically. First, we’ve seen New England’s offense do that to Pittsburgh’s defense at home for two decades now. Notice how the NE offense, which has been pretty mediocre this year, peaked in that Week 1 game. The difference was on offense, and that was the least talented offense the Steelers have fielded in arguably two decades. No Antonio Brown. No Le’Veon Bell. Ben Roethlisberger with an elbow injury, tossing a 40-yard bomb for a pick while down huge in the 4Q. Oh and way too much Donte Moncrief (released this weekend), who dropped a fourth down and dropped a touchdown in a game where the Steelers couldn’t call a good play in short-yardage situations. And despite all of that, NE’s defensive EPA was a season low +9.50 in that game according to Pro Football Reference.

Now enter Baltimore for what is low-key a No. 1 offense vs. No. 1 defense matchup. The Ravens are second to the Patriots in scoring, but that’s because of the surplus in return scores by NE this year. The Ravens are actually No. 1 in the league in yards per drive and points per drive (the Patriots are 20th and 14th in those categories). They’re also No. 1 in plays per drive and time of possession per drive, keyed by their No. 1 rushing offense led by Lamar Jackson, the quarterback.

This is far from a normal BAL-NE matchup, which has often gone well for head coach John Harbaugh in his career, at least relative to how the rest of the league plays New England. The Ravens won’t be intimidated by this team. Despite the fact that Baltimore hasn’t beaten NE since that 2012 sweep, the Ravens offer a different challenge from the rest of the NFL that could prove to be the toughest game the Patriots have this regular season. While the defense is not up to usual Baltimore standards — it’s mediocre at best at keeping the score down and even weaker at generation turnovers — it did limit Russell Wilson to one of his worst home games ever in the last outing. With Jackson resting on the bye week, he can use his legs with reckless abandon on Sunday night, though I think scrambles will be the way to go over the designed runs they like to use too. The Patriots aren’t their usual offensive selves this year, so I don’t think he’ll have to score a ton to win this game and the Ravens can shrink the number of possessions by controlling the clock through their run-heavy attack.

This is only Jackson’s 16th start and Bill Belichick will certainly hope to confuse him to make some mistakes with his arm against that veteran secondary. That’s why I don’t think the Ravens need to go away from their run-heavy approach because it would just be playing right into NE’s hands. Jackson has to be cautious early and avoid the turnovers that put Cleveland and the Jets in such quick, huge holes the last two weeks against the Patriots.

I still believe that experience matters in beating the Patriots, so Jackson’s first look could be a rough one here, but if it serves him better come playoff time then so be it. I’m just glad to see the Patriots are getting an opponent who shouldn’t crap its pants before the first quarter is over.

Also, the Patriots don’t have a good kicker anymore while the Ravens have maybe the best one ever in Justin Tucker. So if it’s a really tight game, that could be crucial. No Billy Cundiff here.

NFL Week 9 Predictions

I felt alright about the 49ers covering on Thursday night, but the Cardinals were very competitive once again against Kyle Shanahan’s team. Just weren’t able to get the ball back late.

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I’ll update the picks on Twitter on Sunday when we find out if Patrick Mahomes is playing for the Chiefs. I like KC if he is, but we’ll see how that one shakes out.

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NFL Week 8 Predictions: Redemption Edition

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

As we near the midpoint of the 2019 season, some teams are in a desperate situation to get a win and get back on track before things fall apart and this becomes a lost season. We tend to forget the teams who start seasons poorly before going on a run later. We only remember them in their final form most of the time. For example, last year the Cowboys and Colts were 10-win teams with a playoff win, but Indy started 1-5 and Dallas was 3-5. There’s a chance some 3-4 team goes on a run starting this week and makes the playoffs. It works the other way too as some of those teams with the nice records now could be on the verge of a slide that leads to disappointment.

I probably didn’t pick the best week to talk about redemption, but I see Sunday as a very important day for several teams and specific players that I’ll highlight below.

It’s an odd week in that the average spread is about 8.1 points right now depending on what the number will be in the ARI-NO game given Drew Brees’ returning status. As I looked at earlier this week, this would be the fourth-largest spread of any week in the NFL regular season since 2001:

We already had a 17-point spread on TNF (WAS-MIN) and are looking at four more games above 11. There’s a bit more rot at the bottom than usual and it hasn’t been a good thing for the NFL. We also see that comebacks are down so once a team gets a lead this year, they usually hold it more often, which drives down the excitement late in games.

Let’s do some quick notes about redemption.

Seahawks at Falcons (+8)

Matt Ryan (ankle) will miss just the third start to injury in his career. That means 38-year-old Matt Schaub will face the team (Seahawks) that broke his confidence back in 2013 when he threw a late pick-6 to Richard Sherman when his team was nursing a 20-13 lead. Since that game, Schaub has gone 1-5 as a starter with his only win coming for Baltimore in a game won by a blocked FG returned for a touchdown.

This one is more about Seattle though, with Russell Wilson needing a rebound after one of the worst home games of his career last week against Baltimore. I think Atlanta is a perfect opponent for the Seahawks to get on track and win an easy game for a change. But it would be a nice little send-off for Schaub to play well in an upset win. At the very least, the Legion of Boom is long gone on that roster.

Chargers at Bears (-4)

While the Chargers are in full Chargering mode, the Bears really need to see something from Mitchell Trubisky. He’s in the danger zone right now with just 5.24 YPA this season.

Special shoutout to Troy Aikman: Trubisky’s yards per completion is also just 8.1, which would be the fourth-worst season (min. 100 passes) since 1970. When he’s not an inaccurate mess, he’s a worthless dink-and-dunker. He’s fortunate he doesn’t throw more interceptions or I think he would be benched already. Trubisky has to show something at home this week and I think the Bears will come through for him, possibly with considerable help from a Chargers team that can’t get out of its own way.

Giants at Lions (-6.5)

The Lions have lost three in a row and the referees haven’t been too kind in the process. I think the Giants present a perfect opportunity to get back in the win column with a turnover-prone rookie QB (Daniel Jones) and a secondary that looks lost at times. Matthew Stafford has been much more aggressive this season and is playing some of his best football. Detroit winning by at least a touchdown is a favorite pick of mine this week.

Jets at Jaguars (-6.5)

The Jets have played some absolutely putrid offensive football this season aside from the Dallas game, but I think the defense can keep them in this one. DJ Chark has been a big success for the Jaguars, but we’re starting to see more mistakes from rookie QB Gardner Minshew. I think after the “seeing ghosts” fiasco from Sam Darnold, he’ll play much better against this defense without Jalen Ramsey. I’m still on the Jags just because I think the Jets are closer to the terrible team rather than the one who beat Dallas, but this feels like a lock for a close 4Q finish.

Buccaneers at Titans (-2.5)

In 2015, the first NFL game for Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota was against each other. Four years later, Winston is just hanging onto his starting job after six turnovers the last time out, and Mariota has been benched for Ryan Tannehill. How fun. I think Tannehill struggles more this week, Tampa Bay should contain Derrick Henry on the ground, and Winston does just enough to get a win.

Eagles at Bills (-2)

This could really be one of those games where a win sends one team on a run while a loss starts a slide for the loser. Based on what these teams have been doing this year, I’m obviously referring to the Eagles pulling out the road win despite growing turmoil in the locker room and shaky results on the field.

Look, there’s plenty I could say about how I think Doug Pederson and Carson Wentz are both overrated and owe a lot of their success to Nick Foles and some good fortune. I mean, if it wasn’t Foles starting in the Super Bowl that year, it would have been Case Keenum (MIN) in an NFC that didn’t even have the Seahawks or Packers in the tournament, Ezekiel Elliott was suspended six games that year, and the Saints lost in spectacular fashion (again) in the divisional round. They won the title, but it wasn’t exactly the result of years of hard work or a track record that should make us believe there was more to come, especially without Foles at QB.

For as fast as people wanted to move –and the Eagles have paid — Wentz to the top tier of QBs, the fact is he’s more in the Kirk Cousins/Matthew Stafford tier than he is the very top of the league.

The good news this week is that Buffalo is a very poor man’s version of the 2017 Eagles, right down to their draft selection of Josh Allen that they hope would be their Carson Wentz. Buffalo is a below-average scoring team, and the Eagles shouldn’t have to expect Wentz to throw a lot of passes against one of the best defenses to get this win. You could see this being a 21-17 type of game where the run game is leaned on more. While Allen has had more 4Q success than Wentz, I think the Eagles rise above all the negative noise and pull this one out against an unfamiliar opponent.

Browns at Patriots (-12.5)

I seem to remember when this was going to be a “challenge” for the Patriots, yet here we are with another double-digit spread. Obviously, the Browns have been turnover machines this year with a lot of picks by Baker Mayfield. Some were tipped balls and bad luck, but their sloppy play has not been all fluke. We know the Patriots capitalize on mistakes better than anyone and it’s a terrible matchup for the Browns right now.

However, nothing would get the bandwagon fired up again for Cleveland than a good showing here after the bye week. Keep in mind this team did drop 40 points in a win in Baltimore, a team that some may start saying is the 2nd best in this godforsaken conference. So between the talent level and the fact that the New England offense has not been that great, I could see this actually being a close game. The Patriots are the only offense that hasn’t had a 4QC/GWD opportunity this year because they’re always leading since no one can really score on them. The Browns have the weapons to do some damage. There’s no way in hell I’d pick Cleveland to win this one, but at least they could do something respectable here instead of another blowout.

Packers at Chiefs (+5)

Finally, we have SNF where the Chiefs are a home underdog to the Packers. There’s really no redemption angle here. I’m just disappointed we’re not going to see Patrick Mahomes vs. Aaron Rodgers and may never see it unless they’re both still starting for these teams in 2023 or meet in a Super Bowl. This would have been a great game with Mahomes up for it.

My gut this week has been that the Chiefs will win one of the next two (vs. GB, vs. MIN) without Mahomes despite most expecting them to lose to quality opponents. I said this because I trust that Andy Reid can get Matt Moore playing well. Reid’s backups often play well aside from the 2005 Eagles fiasco (Mike McMahon/Koy Detmer). Tyreek Hill and Mecole Hardman are still fast as hell and Travis Kelce can make big plays too. Throw in some pass pressure for a strip-sack or two of Rodgers or Kirk Cousins and you can see the makings of an upset. Unfortunately, the Chiefs have so many other big injuries besides Mahomes that it just doesn’t seem like they’ll get the defensive help. Like who will rush the passer if Chris Jones and Frank Clark are both out? That’s bad, especially for a defense that gets gashed on the ground all the time too.

On the plus side, Mahomes was getting close to start this week and could be back for next week’s game. So maybe they won’t have to play two contenders without him, but they are this week and I’m going to go with the safe pick of the Packers covering.

NFL Week 8 Predictions

That was a lot more talk than I expected for a week that looks terrible on paper, but that just means the upsets could be spectacular. I had the Redskins covering on TNF and have to wonder how close that would have been if Case Keenum didn’t suffer a concussion.

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If you look at Miami’s upcoming schedule, I would definitely take some chances on the Dolphins getting a win. Fitzpatrick gives them a much better shot than Josh Rosen. I’m surprised the spread is still 14 in Pittsburgh, but I can also understand why no sane person would even want to watch that game on Monday night. We need to start considering flex scheduling for Monday games next year.

Or just don’t pick as many games that look terrible on paper. That works too.

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NFL Week 7 Predictions: Patrick Mahomes Panic Button Edition

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

I certainly wasn’t trying to conjure up an injury to Patrick Mahomes last week when I wrote that spoof that ended with him being the final piece of the Chiefs puzzle to disappear this year. Just a week earlier I said he was the most exciting part of the NFL right now and without this offense my interest in the league would be at its lowest point since 2000.

So are we there after Thursday night’s injury? Maybe not, but it was scary to see him unable to get off the field and reports of the cart coming out. Mahomes walked off after a dislocated kneecap and the thought is he may only miss 3-4 games before returning for the stretch run. It’s still a big risk to rush him back when the long-term outlook is more important than anything, and keep in mind he hasn’t received that monster payday yet.

But the fact that he’s not been ruled out for the season is great news for football fans and especially the AFC in general, which badly needs someone to stand up to the Patriots. More on that shortly.

Mahomes’ expedited return is already drawing comparisons to RG3 rushing back in Washington, a scary thought for such a promising player’s potential if he comes back too soon. I also thought about the cases of Daunte Culpepper, Carson Palmer and Andrew Luck, and that despite modern medicine’s best efforts, sometimes health can derail a player’s career. When it’s someone like Mahomes who has shown the potential to be the best to ever play the position, it’s a situation where decisions must not be made in haste.

Do You Push the Button?

So let’s talk about a hasty hypothetical decision that I saw on Twitter that has continued to fascinate me as this Chiefs season unfolds. Carrington Harrison initially posted the poll on October 3:

You have a button where if you push it, you lock Mahomes into what is essentially the 13-year run Peyton Manning had with the Colts (1998-2010). That means 11 seasons with 10+ wins, 11 trips to the playoffs, a 1-1 Super Bowl record, a SB MVP, and four regular season MVPs. It’s the type of career very few achieve as even Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers have not gotten to more than one Super Bowl yet and they combine for half as many MVPs as Manning won in Indy.

I voted Yes to lock it in. I was a little surprised that only 52% went for the lock, but since Harrison is Kansas City-based, I figured he might attract more votes from the local fans who are more interested in ring counting than their QB’s legacy.

Then a funny thing happened. Just a couple days later, Mahomes had the first “bad game” of his career against the Colts when they only scored 13 points, snapping a historic streak of scoring 26+ in every start. Mahomes also twice was visibly injured and limped slowly off the field. I almost thought about re-running the poll again myself after that game, which showed Mahomes is in fact mortal.

Then the Texans came to town and after some weird sequences where Mahomes lost a fumble before the half and threw his first interception of the season after a DPI flag was picked up, the Chiefs lost another home game and didn’t score 26 points again. The defense looked horrible — worse than the box score since multiple TD were dropped by the Texans — and couldn’t get Mahomes the ball in the second half. If that’s how they’re going to handle semi-contenders like Indy and Houston, how does this team have any hope at going to New England and winning this year?

Finally, Thursday night happened. Mahomes looked sharp early in Denver, but a simple QB sneak was the play he injured his kneecap on. It’s a freak accident and you almost never see that on hundreds and hundreds of sneaks that I’ve personally studied over the years. Maybe they shouldn’t have been calling that with his ankle already compromised, but it is generally a safe play.

So after two losses and major injury concerns, I ran the poll again myself. Do you push the button?

As of Saturday afternoon, 52% are saying No to my poll. I figured my followers would have less interest in the Chiefs’ success and care more about Mahomes’ potential legacy. I also thought after the events of the last three games more would be willing to lock this in, so that definitely surprised me. I will note that some were confused that the 1 Super Bowl MVP means a ring, which I thought was obvious, but never assume on Twitter. So I don’t know how many votes that would swing if it said RING in caps, but I digress.

I’m not going to break into a 5000-word analysis over this one, but I want to talk about the prevailing thought that the potential landscape of the AFC going forward are reasons enough to vote No and to let things play out Mahomes’ own way. If Mahomes is going to be the premiere QB of the next decade, then why not better than a 1-1 SB record in a league where the Patriots should fall off soon, Andrew Luck already retired, Ben Roethlisberger and Philip Rivers are nearing the end, the 2018 QBs (Baker/Darnold/Allen/Rosen/Lamar) aren’t leaps and bounds better this year, the AFC West looks like a mess, and the NFC never seems to have a consistently dominant team?

I’ve definitely considered all of that.

However, this is the NFL, a league where we can barely predict what will happen next week, let alone 10, five, or even three years from now. For all we know the Bengals could land Tua and Cincinnati can have a dynastic run in the 2020s. Don’t laugh; at least Marvin Lewis is gone.

The AFC’s Great Decline

One thing I mentioned two weeks ago was that Peyton Manning had to deal with a much stronger AFC during his Indy days before it fell off in his Denver days, so that could definitely be an advantage for Mahomes. Of course, a Patriots fan had to butt in with this:

So here we are on to the topic that I should probably write a book about at this point: the decline of the AFC. I don’t know how anyone could follow the NFL in the 21st century and not see what’s happened to this conference. Typically in the NFL you’ll see challengers come and go while only a couple of teams hang on as consistent winners. Think about the NFC West this decade. The Seahawks have been the consistent winner since drafting Russell Wilson in 2012. The 49ers had that three-year run of NFC-CG (2011-13) when Jim Harbaugh took over. The Cardinals had a three-year run of 10-win seasons with Bruce Arians and Carson Palmer (2013-15). The Rams have won the division the last two years and been to a SB since Sean McVay took over as head coach. That’s just one division.

Meanwhile in the AFC, you basically have had the same couple of teams rule the conference for 2010-19 that ruled it in 2000-09. That’s practically unheard of. That’s New England, Pittsburgh, the team with Peyton Manning (IND/DEN), and Baltimore. The Chargers fell off and the Titans fell even further this decade. Also, the Steelers were stronger circa 2004-2011 when they had a great defense, and the Colts were stronger with Manning than without him despite Luck’s potential. Denver has been an also-ran since Manning retired too, though that 4-year run (2012-15) was a great challenge to the Patriots. The only other team the AFC has built up this decade is Andy Reid’s tenure in Kansas City since 2013, now bolstered by the addition of Mahomes.

Those three stooges in the AFC East (MIA/BUF/NYJ)? Losers for two decades. The Browns and Raiders? Terrible for two decades. Even the Bengals are back to being under .500 since 2010 despite five straight playoff trips at one point.

I talked about three-year runs in the NFC West this decade. We can’t do that in the AFC. “Hey, remember when Marcus Mariota had the Titans in the playoffs two years in a row?” Nope, didn’t happen. “Hey, remember that awesome Jacksonville defense helping Bortles to back-to-back AFC title games?” Oh, you mean the team for one season that took advantage of Luck and Watson (rookie sensation cut down by non-contact injury) being out in 2017? I liked it better when they were called the 2009-10 Jets with Mark Sanchez, the last time New York did anything worth a damn and actually knocked the Patriots out of the playoffs.

It’s not just the AFC East that New England has taken advantage of. It’s the whole conference this decade that has been a disappointment. As I always point out, the reason the 49ers didn’t continue to make a bunch of Super Bowls in the 90s (despite great regular seasons) is because they actually had legit competition from the Cowboys and Packers. The Patriots had one of those foes for four years (Denver), but nothing else has really materialized in the AFC.

It’s too early to know if Mahomes is someone capable of sustaining this incredible offensive play for years to come, leading to 12-win season after 12-win season. That’s what Manning did in his career. The Chiefs are 5-2 right now, and even if Mahomes was 100 percent healthy, they still may win 10 or 11 games instead of 12. However, with the shape of the AFC right now, don’t be shocked if 11-5 doesn’t get a first-round bye again. It happened for New England last year.

You knew there’d be a table eventually and it’s a wordy one. My theory was that Manning had a tougher AFC to navigate in his Indy days than in his Denver time and the current AFC. So I used 12 wins as the litmus test to see just where that would have gotten Manning each year since 2002 realignment, and I did the same thing for Brady and the Patriots. I also looked at the Chiefs since 2016 since they have basically taken the mantle from Denver in the AFC West as NE’s best challenger. I know very well that neither Manning nor Mahomes was in the NFL in 2016, but just go with it. I also looked at the best-case scenario for what 12 wins would have done for these teams without getting crazy into tie-breakers and not changing the game results for any head-to-head meetings that would have gone into that.

 

afc12w

My main findings:

1. On four occasions (2003-04, 2006, 2008), Manning led the Colts to 12 actual wins and that was still not enough for a first-round bye. One year (2008) it even led to a No. 5 Wild Card and road playoff game. That happened just once in 17 years to the Patriots in 2006 when they were the No. 4 seed at 12-4.

2. That would be unheard of in the AFC these days. You have to go back to 2009 to find the last time 12 wins wouldn’t have given the Patriots a bye. In six of the last seven seasons, 12 wins would have given the AFC West winner a bye. Not pictured here, but the Patriots could have won 11 games in six of the last nine seasons and still received a first-round bye six times and a No. 3 seed three times. Those days of a 15-1 Pittsburgh or 14-2 San Diego or a random 13-3 Tennessee are long gone.

3. The 2018 Patriots are the first AFC team since the 2002 Raiders/Titans to get a first-round bye with 11 wins. No one won 12 games in 2002. If you look at the way the AFC is trending this year, the No. 2 seed may not win 12 games again. Also note that the 2001 Patriots, the beginning of the dynasty, had a No. 2 seed with an 11-5 record, but this is only looking at since realignment.

4. Despite the IND/DEN/KC teams having inferior defenses/ST/coaching, they won at least 12 games in 13 of the 17 seasons compared to 12-of-17 for the Patriots. However, the Patriots did have seven seasons in excess of 12 wins (13+) compared to five for the other side. That’s still pretty respectable when you consider the defenses Indy had in the old days or KC last year.

There are many different ways one can take this Mahomes button decision. I’m not going to rehash the playoff struggles the Colts had in the Manning era here, but let’s not forget that the Chiefs have a long history of losing at home in the playoffs, including three straight seasons of doing exactly that. The defense doesn’t exactly look ready for a dynasty run. If you can lock in a ring with a lot of exciting seasons to watch, I think that’s too hard to pass up. While I understand the AFC horizon looks tempting, just remember that you’ll be watching with bated breath the next time Mahomes takes a hit. Maybe every time from now on. Also don’t forget that Dan Marino got to the Super Bowl in 1984 and never returned. He never won another MVP. He only had two more 12-win seasons after 1984 as well. Marino is about the only QB who compares to Mahomes through 26 games.

You just never know how things are going to turn out in this league. All I know is we’ve been looking for greatness to step up in the AFC for many years now. The AFC has tried to sell us on many franchise changers, including Adam Gase, Ryan Tannehill, Andrew Luck, Chuck Pagano, Trent Richardson, Johnny Manziel, Marcus Mariota, Jadeveon Clowney, Baker Mayfield, Hue Jackson, Josh Allen, Sammy Watkins, Luke Joeckel, Sam Darnold, Derek Carr, Blake Bortles, Justin Blackmon, Corey Davis, Doug Marrone, Bill O’Brien, Leonard Fournette, Andy Dalton, Jake Locker, Blaine Gabbert, and the list goes on. Even Jalen Ramsey jumped ship to the NFC (Rams) this week.

Mahomes is the one who actually looks like he can be the face of the league for the next decade. One name I left out was Deshaun Watson, who also looked to set the record books on fire before tearing his ACL as a rookie. Could Mahomes vs. Watson be the 2020’s version of Manning vs. Brady?

That would certainly beat what the AFC has turned into since 2016: Brady vs. the field & Father Time. That’s why the sentiment around Thursday night was “this would be terrible for the league if Mahomes is seriously injured” and not just for the Chiefs.

So do I press the button and lock in a first-ballot HOF career for Mahomes that I know I’ll enjoy watching for the next decade? Damn right I do.

NFL Week 7 Predictions

I had the Chiefs covering on TNF, and lost in all the Mahomes injury talk was a horrific performance by Joe Flacco and the Denver offense.

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I’m laughing at the thought of Josh Allen being favored by 17 in an NFL game. Yes, Miami is truly terrible, but I think Ryan Fitzpatrick gives them a better chance than Josh Rosen did. So even if it’s done in garbage time, I think he can cover that one.

2019Wk1-6

NFL Week 6 Predictions: I Did Not Speak Out Edition

~ Scott ~ 1 Comment

Last week I did not say much about the actual games in Week 5, and I regret not going into detail on why I thought the Colts had a shot at upsetting the Chiefs. When you get as many predictions wrong as I have this season — though apparently the sites I’ve worked for before are doing just as bad against the spread — it’s nice to look right from time to time. This has been a lopsided season and I will even briefly hit on the Super Toilet Bowl this week in Miami.

But first, let’s start with a game that could be the (Early) Game of the Year that Ravens-Chiefs was not.

Texans at Chiefs (-4.5)

First they came for Kareem Hunt
And I did not speak out
Because running backs don’t matter

Then they came for Tyreek Hill
And I did not speak out
Because I believe in karma

Then they came for Eric Fisher and Sammy Watkins
And I did not speak out
Because I never thought they lived up to their draft expectations

Then they came for me, Patrick Mahomes
And there was no one left to run this historic offense

It took 24 games, but it finally happened. The Chiefs lost a game in the Mahomes era primarily because the offense didn’t perform or produce. While the Colts deserve credit for pressuring Mahomes (four sacks like they had in January’s playoff loss) and making some big plays, I find any talks of a “blueprint” existing to stifle this offense are way overblown. Most of the pivotal mistakes in KC’s 19-13 demise last Sunday night were self inflicted.

You can’t plan as a defense for things like that to happen every week. The Chiefs played a sloppy, penalty-filled game, and we haven’t even gotten into the injury side of it. You had to figure at some point the loss of a left tackle, top two wide receivers and the QB limping around during the game would catch up to the Chiefs. You could even argue this offense has been hemorrhaging talent since the team made the right move of cutting problematic RB Kareem Hunt last December. About the only player who has consistently remained healthy is Travis Kelce. A QB on a bad ankle, which Mahomes first injured in Week 1 against the Jaguars, can by itself explain why some of the deep throws in recent weeks have been just off despite an open receiver. In the last 23 games, the Chiefs have had four scoreless first quarters: the 2018 AFC Championship Game and three games this season. They fell behind 10-0 to both Oakland and Detroit this year. Things have been a little more scattershot despite the prolific start.

“Play more man coverage” is a bit simplistic of a plan to slow this offense down. It’s also easier to do when  you’re defending DeMarcus Robinson and someone named Pringle than Sammy Watkins and Tyreek Hill. So I think the Chiefs offense will be stronger as the season goes on and players come back, but this is a particularly interesting part of the schedule where they could really fall off the chase for the top seed with New England blazing through one of the most disgusting schedules you’ll ever see an NFL team gifted. The Chiefs now have to host a dangerous Houston team before going to Denver on Thursday night, and the Broncos have held Mahomes under 30 points in all three meetings. The Packers and Vikings soon follow too, so it’s not a good time to have injuries like this for Kansas City.

When Deshaun Watson brings his A game, he is absolutely on the level of what Mahomes can do offensively. He brought it against Atlanta last week for his third career game with 5 TD passes. He also tossed five against the Chiefs in 2017. The only issue is Watson has been up and down the last two seasons and takes too many sacks, but the Chiefs are more than vulnerable on defense for him to have a huge day and put a lot of pressure on Mahomes in what could be a fun shootout.

If these teams play up to their potential, this could only be the first meeting of two this year as they are quite arguably the 2nd and 3rd best teams in the AFC.

Redskins at Dolphins (+3.5)

You know things are bad when the 0-5 road team that just fired its coach is a 3.5-point favorite. My thoughts on Jay Gruden are that he struggled to establish an identity for his team, the firing was inevitable this year, but he probably deserves a second chance somewhere after dealing with a ton of bad injury luck. He usually kept the team around .500 despite all of the shortcomings in Washington.

Now you enter Bill Callahan in the job, who famously lost the Super Bowl to Tampa Bay after Jon Gruden knew what the Raiders were running on offense. Callahan also had a doozy of a media conference this week when he glorified rushing attempts, so don’t be surprised if Adrian Peterson is a name you hear a lot this week.

As for the Dolphins, the nicest thing you can say is that the margin of defeat has shrunk each week and they had a bye. Josh Rosen isn’t better right now than Washington starter Case Keenum, so that gives me pause to giving the Dolphins their first win, but if it’s going to happen this year, a home game with Washington’s putrid defense is a great opportunity.

This may not even be the worst matchup of the season as the Dolphins host the currently winless Bengals in Week 16, but by virtue of these games, we shouldn’t have multiple 0-16 teams this year.

Steelers at Chargers (-7)

I’m assuming NBC thought the Steelers looked competent enough against Cincinnati two weeks ago that they didn’t need to flex this one. They couldn’t have predicted that Mason Rudolph would go down with a concussion on Sunday against Baltimore. That was probably the scariest looking concussion I’ve ever seen a football player suffer with the way his body went limp, so I’m not surprised he is inactive this week.

It’s just a stunning development that the Steelers are now starting UDFA Devlin Hodges out of Samford. We’re talking an August preseason arm starting in prime time before Halloween for a flagship NFL franchise. To his credit, Hodges looked good off the bench against the Ravens. It’s not his fault that JuJu Smith-Schuster fumbled in overtime to set up a game-winning field goal for Baltimore. I liked that Hodges wasn’t afraid to pull the trigger on intermediate passes and he has some mobility as well. My biggest concern would be that after a week of “getting coached up” by one of the league’s most suspect coaching staffs that he’ll turtle in this big opportunity and they’ll try to hide him with the Wildcat and other gadget plays.

I don’t think the Chargers have been playing good football this year and it is a winnable game. I even recall the Chargers losing a prime-time game to the 2015 Steelers with Michael Vick at QB barely contributing any completions. The Steelers are better than their 1-4 record, giving Seattle, San Francisco and Baltimore all they could handle in losses.

I wouldn’t count on an upset, but I think the Steelers keep it close enough to where it’s not a disaster they didn’t get the flex option.

NFL Week 6 Predictions

I had the Patriots barely covering against the Giants on Thursday, which proved to be the case.

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I am also interested in the Seahawks-Browns game. Seattle has already won three games by 1-2 points. The Browns have mostly looked terrible, though did drop 40 points in Baltimore in a win. The top of the NFC West has been beating up on the disappointing AFC North so far, but let’s see if the Browns can get on track this week before a bye and trip to New England.

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NFL Week 5 Predictions: Sports Illustrated Edition

~ Scott ~ 2 Comments

I was thinking about a theme this week in lieu of focusing on a Week 5 slate that may have shot its best shot on Thursday night (LAR-SEA). We could talk about Russell Wilson’s increasingly strong place in history, or I could dig into the dominance of road teams this season. Or I could bash the snot out of that awful 100 Greatest Games list from NFL Films, but I think I’ve already done enough of that on Twitter.

I could also talk about a 2003 parallel, the year I really got into football stats. That was when I found myself gaining much more interest in the Colts and Peyton Manning (especially after that Tampa Bay comeback) during a down year for the Steelers. It feels similar to me right now where the Steelers aren’t must-see TV and the Kansas City Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes absolutely are. I’m glad they’re on SNF tomorrow, because frankly there is nothing more exciting in this game right now than watching that offense operate. Without the Chiefs, my interest in football would be at its lowest since 2000 for sure.

So I ultimately landed on recapping where my interests in football analysis began and where they are now after a Red Wedding week for a former flagship franchise in sports journalism (Sports Illustrated).

Sports Illustrated –> Sports Informative

I’ve let this cat out of the bag a few times before, but my main motivation for getting into NFL analysis was to prove ex-jocks on TV wrong and to provide better, factual information to fans who deserved more than cliches and myths. That 2003 season in particular was a tough one to stomach when I’d turn on ESPN after school and listen to someone like Sean Salisbury spout nonsense about the likes of the Patriots, Colts and some of the other offense-driven teams at that time (Rams, Vikings, Chiefs). This was just about to begin an era of “The Patriot Way” and ring counting and “he’s so clutch!” taking over sports analysis. Maybe there was some of that in the 90s as well, but that was before my time frame of interest in the league.

The 2003 AFC Championship Game especially left a mark on me. Yes, Peyton Manning stunk in that game and threw four interceptions in snowy New England. It’s one of the worst games of his career and was especially disappointing after the way he played the position flawlessly the previous two weeks in the playoffs. But when the credit kept going to Tom Brady for the win, I wondered if I had watched the same game as everyone else. I saw Brady try to match Manning pick for pick only to see the Colts fail to complete those plays, or a Patriot receiver to break up a should-be interception. Both quarterbacks sucked that day, but as I came to learn, the mainstream narrative demands that the winner gets the praise while the loser choked. I mean, just watch this:

Never mind the fact that the NFL admitted to missing multiple calls on the Patriots’ defense for holding receivers on the final drive, the whole outcome and critique of that game just felt wrong to me. The Panthers also got pretty physical with the Eagles’ receivers later that day, prompting the league to remind officials that illegal contact has been a thing since 1978.

This was my senior year of high school and I’d soon be going to Pitt in 2004, a huge year for so many quarterbacks, including Ben Roethlisberger’s rookie year for the Steelers, Drew Brees’ breakout in San Diego, and Manning’s record-breaking year in Indy. The game was changing again after a weird transition period in 1999-2003 when quarterbacks were coming out of grocery stores, Canada, NFL Europe and the XFL to lead playoff victories while some legendary defenses really soared to Super Bowls. We were entering a new golden age of quarterback play, which even before statistical analysis I knew was the most important position because I was conditioned by Bill Cowher’s quarterbacks letting his team down in the postseason year after year. Thanks for getting me on the right path so early, Neil O’Donnell and Kordell Stewart.

I needed better analysis to complement my growing love of the game, and my own Excel sheets of game logs I started putting together in 2003 just weren’t cutting it. Fortunately, I began finding places like Pro Football Reference (and its blog), Football Outsiders, Cold Hard Football Facts, Brian Burke’s Advanced NFL Stats, and also Sports Illustrated’s website where I would read the likes of Peter King, Dr. Z (RIP) and Don Banks (RIP) while I was in college. My introduction to efficiency metrics (EPA, DVOA, WinProb) and better coverage of the game transformed my hobby into something significant while at school I was learning about linear regression and decision models.

I was now collecting more data, especially thanks to PFR, and in 2005 I began to chronicle all the 4QC and GWD attempts that eventually led to getting my foot in the door of this industry. I started recording games on VCR tape in 2005, bought a DVD recorder in 2006 to switch to DVD-Rs, and started downloading games via torrents in 2006 as well. I was amassing a large collection of data and video to analyze the game the way I knew it deserved, but alas I was just one person who only had time during school to closely examine a few teams (Steelers, Colts and Patriots in particular) each week. It also helped that I watched from 2005-2008 the Steelers win two Super Bowls, the Colts win one, and the undefeated Patriots lose one in spectacular fashion. That four-year stretch will probably never be topped in my life as far as fandom goes.

Late 2007 was when I was initially approached by PFR to sell data on QB starts that I had mentioned on a blog post that I was researching. This stuff just didn’t exist on the internet back then, but I started putting that together along with a database of coordinators and eventually traced all the comebacks and GWDs back to 1940 and sold that data to PFR where I also began to write blog posts in 2009. I made important contacts at that time and would get emails from writers from various big-name establishments (Wall Street Journal, Washington Post, NY Times) to inquire about my comebacks data.

Around this time I had some pretty big dreams about how the future of NFL analysis should look with an emphasis on advanced stats created from game charting. In the early 2000s I would argue on message boards about things like air yards and passing under pressure, collecting whatever data I could find from SI’s website (usually provided by STATS LLC) on those splits. People thought I was crazy for caring about how far a pass was thrown, but I knew that was important information to differentiate performance. Now of course today we see it all the time with PFF, Next Gen Stats and the other innovations that have come along, many of which were things I talked about years ago like tracking time to throw, how long linemen hold their blocks, receiver separation, throws into tight windows, route types, etc.

I’m not saying I created modern analytics in the NFL, but I definitely knew what could be tracked with the right technology and big enough workforce to handle charting every play. Those days of blaming a QB’s OL for his tendency to hold the ball and take sacks should be over, but that’s a topic for another day.

Eventually in July 2011 I decided to take a chance writing about the NFL full time. Ten months later, I had an article that was featured on the front page of the SI website. No, it wasn’t in the print edition, but this was still a huge deal to me. In fact I still have a screenshot of the site with my article featured in a frame. Getting on SI seemed like the ultimate high in sports writing to me. I’m sad that the link no longer works, but I did find it on a web archive here. I’ll also add that SI paid over $500 for this piece, so I thought that was incredible for one article at a time when I was lucky to see $50 for my articles. When you just start out in this business, you know it’s hard to make anything and writing for free is common.

Of course, I probably should have known better than to enter an industry where Skip Bayless is paid more to yell hot takes than what some sites pay their writing staffs combined. It only seems to be getting worse too as countless sites have had to stop print media and have tried to pivot towards video or have dreaded “influencers” promote their brand. Yes, let’s hire someone who couldn’t get a role on a CW show to film a 90 second hot take to put on the ‘Gram instead of publishing a thoughtful piece people have to actually read. Is that really the future of sports journalism?

When news broke this week that, under new management, SI callously cut a large chunk of the full-time staff, I saw another nail in the coffin for the industry. I felt it personally too as SI was a place where I had someone put in a word for me this summer, but I never heard back. You can see why when they were in the process of selling and cutting jobs.

Sadly, from a financial standpoint I can see why companies are doing this. Why pay someone tens of thousands of dollars in salary when you can contract a few freelancers for peanuts to produce the same amount of content for a fraction of the cost? Is the work going to be as good? Probably not, but if it’s close enough and they promote it with a click-bait headline, then it’s probably going to work out just fine for the company. With so many people wanting a foot in the door, some freelancers are okay with peanuts as long as they’re being sold on “great chance for exposure” and “future opportunities available” along with that check that might pay their phone bill for one month.

I feel sick for even typing that paragraph as some executive vulture would likely nod in agreement as they see the dollars saved there.

This can be a brutal industry, and I am honestly reconsidering if I can stay involved with it. I’m already at a disadvantage because I want a job that is very specific and in very low supply:

  • I’m not a beat reporter or news breaker
  • I don’t live and breath fantasy football
  • I’m not a draft scout and spend very little time paying attention to college prospects
  • I want to cover the whole NFL rather than just one team
  • I want to write long, informative pieces and I may need to include a table or graphic that looks good on your mobile site

I also want to be able to work from home like I always have and I don’t want to move to CA, NY or CT (the most likely destinations). I recently asked about living in CA on a $75,000 salary and the results were overwhelmingly negative and that it would be too difficult. That was related to a screenwriting position. From my experience, sports media jobs aren’t paying $75k, so it would be even less than that, if not considerably less.

This summer I reached out to two big companies I’ve done well with before about a full-time position and I heard the same thing from both. The roster was filled for 2019, but I can pitch some one-off ideas to them. So you may see something from me on that front this season if things work out as I do have some studies I’ve been working on that I would love to complete.

But as far as full-time writing goes, that seems to be a position that is a dying breed. Companies always want content, but the willingness to pay the creators these days just isn’t what it used to be.

I would love to get a job where I have access to this new charting data and to try making sense of what that’s telling us, or to properly put into context just how ridiculous Patrick Mahomes has been through 22 games. But busting your ass on an article to make peanuts isn’t a sustainable way of life. So if you’re asking me what I’m writing this season, just keep following me on Twitter and what I decide to write here. Otherwise I truly don’t know what the future holds.

Maybe I need to go into business for myself and write books. If anyone has advice on that, I’d be glad to talk about it.

NFL Week 5 Predictions

Going all in on gambling sure doesn’t seem like a good option for me. I would have turned a profit last season going all in on my weekly bets, but this year has been off to a pretty brutal start. When the Raiders jumped up 14-0 on the Colts last week, I remarked that we must be insane to put real money on this league. Hockey seems like the smarter bet from my experience with its limited scoring.

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I almost wanted to pick Tampa Bay to win outright since it has had success in the Superdome before, but something about trusting Jameis Winston for a third straight week to play really well feels scary to me. I do know Teddy Bridgewater needs to show more than he has as the Saints try to win with such a limited offense.

Thankfully the Dolphins are on a bye, but the Jets return so we could have already eight games this season with a spread of at least 11 points thru Week 5. There were nine such games from 2015-2018 combined. This is not a good thing for the league.

2019Wk1-4

NFL Week 4 Predictions: Scoring Edition

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

You hate to “call” a season this early, but the NFL in 2019 looks a lot like an NBA season at this point where only a few teams are even worth mentioning as serious title contenders. The Patriots and Chiefs stand above the pack, but the Patriots still look more balanced and have home-field advantage for the Week 14 meeting. The NFC is looking for an elite team, and while that could be Dallas this year, let’s see how the next four games go after three weeks of beating up on the Little Sisters of the Poor.

So when I look at the Week 4 schedule, I immediately focus on the two games between unbeaten teams: Patriots at Bills, Chiefs at Lions (2-0-1 is technically unbeaten).

Chiefs at Lions (+7.5)

Vegas doesn’t show much faith in Detroit even at home, but it’s understandable. No team this year has probably walked a finer line between 0-3 and 3-0 than the Lions. They’ve gotten sacks (3 per game), but not much overall pressure at all, and the defense has been gifted drops in Philly and an inexplicable interception thrown by Philip Rivers in Week 2. Patrick Mahomes got away with some dangerous throws against Baltimore last week, but he still made incredible plays in that game to rack up another huge stat line. Now there’s hype over his first indoor NFL game that matters and the Lions could be with a limited Darius Slay (or without him at all) at corner. Throw in the fact that Detroit almost never beats the best teams in the NFL and it’s not a good recipe for an upset here.

Maybe this has jinx written all over it, but I compiled a chart of the top scoring streaks in NFL history. The Chiefs have scored at least 26 points in every Mahomes start, which is an NFL record, but they also have the most consecutive 20-point games in NFL history with 27. When it comes to scoring at least 22 points, the Chiefs are currently tied with the 1997-98 Vikings at 21 games.

ScoringChart

Patriots at Bills (+7.5)

Just like the Chiefs, the Patriots are 7.5 point road favorites this week. Tom Brady is famously 30-3 against Buffalo in his career, and that’s 30-2 if you exclude the 2014 Week 17 game he left early for playoff rest. That’s why I always say Buffalo’s only method of beating him has been a four INT pick parade (2003 and 2011). The Patriots have hardly been challenged this year while Buffalo has already needed a 16-point comeback against the Jets and to pull one out late against the lowly Bengals just to get to 3-0.

But hey, this is a chance for Buffalo to make a huge statement in the young Josh Allen era. We’ve seen 3-0 teams crash and burn before. In fact it’s happened almost 80 times where a team started 3-0 and didn’t make the playoffs, including Buffalo in 2008 and 2011. Since 1990, 104 out of 141 teams to start 3-0 made the playoffs (73.8%), so more than a quarter still miss. Buffalo might still have a good shot at a wild card just because of the dysfunction in the AFC, but any thoughts of dethroning the Patriots this year have to start with a win at home on Sunday.

While the Chiefs are doing historic things on the scoring front, the Patriots are also on a historic run defensively, which we know is harder to sustain but still very impressive in this era. Going back to the 13-3 Super Bowl win in February, the Patriots have not allowed an offensive touchdown in four straight games. They are the first team to do this since the 2000 Steelers and it’s something that has only been done eight times since the 1970 merger. The only touchdowns against NE this year were returns against the offense and ST. Meanwhile the defense also scored on two pick 6’s in Miami, so their net defensive points allowed is still at minus-11 through three games and -8 since the Super Bowl.

A lot can happen between now and December 8, but we could see a historic offense going up against a historic defense in New England.

NFL Week 4 Predictions

For the love of God could we retire the Ricardo Lockette play at the goal line? I loved the Eagles to cover on TNF, but thought Green Bay would win by a field goal. Instead of getting to overtime where that could have happened the Packers seemed content to follow 2014 Seattle’s miserable plan of running the clock down and trying to throw into a tight area short of the goal line. The pass was tipped and intercepted, the first time Aaron Rodgers, who had one of his best games in the last five seasons, has done that in the red zone in crunch time since 2015 Carolina.

The Eagles covering on the road means road teams are 34-14-1 (.704) ATS this season. Every week has seen 11 road teams cover so far. That seems crazy to me but I need to do the research before a Saturday to see where that really stacks up historically. I do know that road teams are also 24-23-1 (.510) SU thru three weeks. Odd? Absolutely. I had to dig back to 2006 to find a season where road teams didn’t start with a losing record through three weeks:

  • 2019: 24-23-1 (.510)
  • 2018: 17-29-2 (.375)
  • 2017: 20-27 (.426)
  • 2016: 22-26 (.458)
  • 2015: 21-27 (.438)
  • 2014: 20-28 (.417)
  • 2013: 16-32 (.333)
  • 2012: 17-31 (.354)
  • 2011: 17-31 (.354)
  • 2010: 20-28 (.417)
  • 2009: 23-25 (.479)
  • 2008: 19-28 (.404)
  • 2007: 18-30 (.375)
  • 2006: 25-21 (.543)

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If you think about home teams making a comeback in Week 4, then how can you not entertain the thought of the banged up Chargers losing to pathetic Miami? I wouldn’t go that far, but I actually think they give them enough of a scare to cover the spread finally.

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