After a slow first week, Week 2 was much more compelling and offensively productive in the NFL. But as the title suggests, the Week 3 schedule looks pretty weak with no true standout game and a long list of injuries bringing down the quality of many games.
You know things are bad when there are 3 games on at 4:00 and the best one might be watching the Chiefs play the Bears after one of the worst weeks in Chicago franchise history.
Sunday could be so bad that you’ll actually be looking forward to Steelers-Raiders, hoping for yet another 3-point finish as 5-of-6 meetings between these teams have been.
Monday night could be the best part of the week, especially if the Rams are dangling an 0-3 start in Cincinnati’s face with the Joe Burrow injury situation up in the air.
This week’s articles:
- What Does an 0-2 Start Say About Your NFL Team – A deep dive on what starting 0-2 really means for your team. A big focus on the 2022-23 Bengals, why it is unlikely they do it again, and which team is the best bet to rebound for the playoffs.
- Scott’s Seven NFL Picks: Week 3 – I rebounded from 0-7 to 6-1 last week
- Computer Picks (BMR)
- Computer Picks (OT)
- Best Bets (OT)
- Prime-Time Game Picks (BMR)
- Prime-Time Game Picks (OT)
- Upset Alert: Saints over Packers
- Player Props (BMR)
- Player Props (OT)
NFL Week 3 Predictions
I had the 49ers winning big on Thursday night, which might just be the start of a week filled with blowouts as half the games have a team favored by a touchdown or more.
Going back to SNF in Week 1, I’m on a 17-2 SU and 11-5-3 ATS run. I’m always nervous about following up a great week because of regression and it’s still early in the year. Week 3 is arguably the hardest week to predict because you are trying to balance which data point to trust more (Week 1 or Week 2).
I wrote about my upset pick of Saints over Packers above, but I also like the Titans to force Cleveland into a passing game that Deshaun Watson is no longer cut out for. I also think the Rams pull it off Monday night, but that’s really a result of thinking we might see Jake Browning at quarterback for the Bengals.
I think the Lions-Falcons game is the one most likely to push this week. Definitely one of my favorite picks for games decided by 1-10 points, along with LAC-MIN and PIT-LV.
Very much looking forward to Vikings and Chargers upholding their brands and delivering some fireworks as one of them is starting 0-3. I favor Minnesota because I just think the pass defense stinks that bad from the Chargers, and am trusting Kirk Cousins at home with Jefferson finding the end zone for the first time this season.
I like the weather (wet field), Baltimore injuries, and Gardner Minshew mania to give the Colts a cover in Baltimore.
My favorite Steelers prediction is for Kenny Pickett to finally throw 2 TDs in a game and for Matt Canada to finally have a 400-yard offensive performance in his 38th try. But for the Steelers to lose because Josh McDaniels and Jimmy Garoppolo light up the defense. But that one should be tight.
I cautiously take the Eagles on MNF, thinking Baker Mayfield turns into a pumpkin this week against a real team even if the Eagles have not been that impressive yet.
I also like Denver to keep it close with Miami as Payton tries to avoid starting 0-3 and becoming irrelevant in a hurry.
Bills-Commanders feels like a wild game I’d stay away from betting on.
Bill Belichick catches a break with the Aaron Rodgers injury. Should be a 15th win in a row over Jets.
If the Chiefs lose to Chicago, that is the worst loss of Patrick Mahomes’ career. You have to beat a team that’s lost 12 in a row and sucks on both sides of the ball. Especially after the DC resigned and Justin Fields was throwing the coaching under the bus. But with him talking about instincts, I love his rushing props this week. I’d even make sure you had bets on 100+ yards rushing for him. Not much passing though. I’ll take the Chiefs to wake up and Mahomes to light up the team that passed him up in the draft for that Son of a Mitch.
I’m big on Carolina and Seattle going over 42 as I think Andy Dalton is an upgrade over what Bryce Young (4.2 YPA) was doing out there. Give me a Miles Sanders TD. Give me Thielen and Hurst over in yards. Give me points in that one.
Finally, I just want to mention that teams favored by double digits on the road failed to cover in 10 straight games before Dallas won 27-13 in Tennessee last year against Josh Dobbs. Now they get him as a 12.5-point road favorite with Arizona, which has led in the 4Q against Washington and the Giants this season. But I’m going with Dallas by 14+ in that one.
But after so much scoring and close games last week, I would caution to be on the lookout for more games like TNF. Blowouts, unders, not many touchdowns. Just a bad week we have to get through.
Captain Comeback: NFL Analysis by Scott Kacsmar 