It’s not that the NFL’s Week 7 schedule is filled with great games, but I like it because each time slot has something that could be really good on Sunday. Lions-Ravens highlights 1 p.m., Chargers-Chiefs is my favorite division rivalry to watch this decade in the 4:25 slot, and the Sunday night game might finally be a great one with the Dolphins taking on the Eagles. If that game doesn’t go over 50 points, I’ll be surprised (and disappointed).
That’s my other talking point this week in that I expect it to be a good week for overs. Why? Last week was incredible for unders with a 12-2-1 record. This was similar to Week 1 when the under was 12-4. What happened in Week 2? The over was 13-3. It’s an up-and-down league, especially this year.
We already saw a taste of this Thursday night when the Jaguars beat the Saints 31-24, the first over to hit in New Orleans’ last 13 games. You still have to play the matchups, but when in doubt, think over this week.
This Week’s Articles:
Patrick Mahomes Through 100 Starts: The Best Quarterback Ever? – A deep dive into Mahomes after 100 starts, where he stacks up historically, and if he’ll be adding any more hardware this season.
- Scott’s Seven NFL Picks: Week 7 – I went a little wild with the parlays but I feel good about these games.
- Computer Picks (BMR)
- Computer Picks (OT)
- Prime-Time Picks (BMR)
- Prime-Time Picks (OT)
- Upset Alert: Dolphins over Eagles – I go over my research into how Jalen Hurts is 0-7 against 10+ win teams with top 15 QBs in QBR (Miami should qualify this year; Tua better not leave this game injured)
- Player Props (BMR)
- Player Props (OT)
- Best Bets (OT)
NFL Week 7 Predictions
Honestly, I don’t know why I backed the Saints on Thursday night. I had Jaguars +3 early in the week if you click on my prime-time picks above, so I don’t know what made me change it. Drew Brees wasn’t walking out that tunnel on Thursday night. It was Derek Carr with more interest in throwing to Alvin Kamara and Taysom Hill than his trio of wide receivers.
Did I pick 7/13 underdogs to cover and 5 to win outright? That’s what happens when so many teams look evenly matched and few teams stand out above the pack.
Wouldn’t it be such a #RandomNFL thing for the Browns to beat the 49ers with P.J. Walker but lose to the Colts with Deshaun Watson back? I almost picked it outright, but we’ll go with an Indy cover. The Colts join the Dolphins and Lions as the only teams to score 20 points in every game this season. Cleveland’s defense is awesome but it’s not the 1985 Bears or 2000 Ravens.
I like the Giants to blitz and sack Sam Howell a lot to push him closer to 100 sacks this year.
I think there’s real value in picking Mac Jones to go way under his passing yards in this game or the next as the Patriots are probably going to be 1-7 after playing Buffalo and Miami, and he is getting benched for Malik Cunningham any quarter now.
I’m staying far away from that CHI-LV game. Check that, I’ll bet on Tyson Bagent to score a TD (+700), but that’s about it.
I think Lions can nip the Ravens in the 4Q in a 3-point game in Baltimore. Looking forward to that one. I have Jahmyr Gibbs scoring his first NFL TD.
I have Cooper Kupp dominating the Steelers with over 100 yards and a TD.
After all the criticism over Geno Smith this past week, I think he has a big game and Seahawks win easily.
I have a lot of KC-LAC research in the links above. I expect another very good game between these two. I have Rashee Rice going over with a TD. Kelce has to score a TD on National Tight Ends Day, right? He had 3 in his last game against the Chargers. Gerald Everett might even redeem himself after last year’s pick-6 disaster when he was winded in KC.
I picked the Broncos to intercept Jordan Love and finally get a home win under Sean Payton (0-3).
Already wrote my Miami upset pick in the above link, and I think the 49ers bounce back with a comfortable win over Kirk Cousins on a Monday night without Justin Jefferson.
Captain Comeback: NFL Analysis by Scott Kacsmar 
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