Month: September 2024

2024 NFL Stat Oddity: Week 4

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

Another week closer to the reality that this is the NFL season where Sam Darnold won MVP. It’d be weirder than Brian Sipe winning it in 1980. Get your bets in now. I did earlier this week at +2800.

On the bright side, I think passing yardage may have increased in Week 4 as many of the quarterbacks you can still trust seemed to throw for 200 or more yards this time. Well, just ignore Sunday night, the supposed Game of the Week. That one lost the plot after one Derrick Henry run.

But I kind of called it during the late window that a Buffalo dud was going to set up a very messy AFC race on what could be a pivotal day for the conference. The Chiefs probably lost Rashee Rice for the season, the Bills looked really bad in their opportunity to lay claim to being the best team in the league right now, and it looks like Houston might be the only hope of breaking things up in January from being a Chiefs-Ravens-Bills tilt that will come down to seeding.

As for the NFC, I don’t know at this point. Might as well throw in some futures bets on a Commanders vs. Vikings NFC Championship Game. Who the hell knows anymore?

We had nine games with a comeback opportunity so far this week. I would imagine one or both Monday night games can add to that total.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Bills at Ravens: Game of the Week Is Dud of the Week

This game was over after 250 seconds. If you’re a Buffalo fan, it should bring back all your worst fears that this team is simply never going to get over the hump as it’s currently constructed.

Sean McDermott is a defensive coach, but he’s not overly conversative like you’d expect. The Bills like to go for it on fourth down, but they are inconsistent about it. That’s why you’ll see McDermott flex his chest on a 4th-and-1 call with Allen at his own 39. But God forbid it’s 4th-and-2 at the 50. Then we’re going to punt it away and pin them deep. Then Derrick Henry takes off for an 87-yard touchdown on the first play and it’s basically game over there.

After going down 14-3 to Henry’s first receiving touchdown since 2019, the Bills had another 4th-and-1 at their own 39, and guess what they did this time? They punted. All the Ravens did was take up half the quarter to score another touchdown and make it 21-3.

The only reason you stuck with the second half is because you know the Ravens stink at holding big leads. They blew a 17-point lead to the Bills in 2022 in Baltimore, so there was some hope.

Sure enough, Josh Allen makes a crazy 50-yard bomb from the sideline, Lamar Jackson starts taking grounding penalties and sacks, and the Bills are suddenly driving in a 21-10 game.

Then they threw it all away for nothing. With Curtis Samuel taking the direct snap, they tried a trick play by throwing it back to Allen, but he never got the ball off as the Ravens were all over him, and it ended up being a fumble that nearly injured Allen.

Six plays later, Jackson was in the end zone and the Ravens were up 28-10, ready to never look back before winning 35-10. There was just no need for a trick play there as the Bills had them reeling, and they’re not built to have to resort to tricks like that. The Ravens are missing plenty of normal assignments on defense this year.

Just an embarrassing display of coaching and game management by the Bills all night. They almost never get blown out, but they did here, their worst loss since their 27-10 playoff rout at home at the hands of the 2022 Bengals.

So much for it being Buffalo’s year. Not that this one game says it can’t be, but it sure didn’t look like a favorable matchup for Buffalo on either side of the ball, and that’s rare you’d ever say that about the Bills against anyone in the NFL.

But if the Ravens can play like this, then they can beat anyone. I’m just wondering why they can’t do this in January when they try to turn Lamar into Dan Marino when he’s just never going to be that. At 0-2, they have gone fully into leaning on Henry, Lamar’s legs, and he’s not even throwing more than 18 passes a game. Guess what? It’s working and they’re scoring points. You can’t do it every single week, but this is how they should be playing.

They understand that in September. Let’s see if they understand it in January too.

Chiefs at Chargers: Push It Real Bad

Mark this one on the calendar as it may be the moment where the Chiefs blew their three-peat opportunity.

After skipping the obligatory fumble last week in Atlanta, the Chiefs were quick to bring it back in LA thanks to Carson Steele, who probably just blew his shot at replacing Isiah Pacheco as the lead back. But it’s one thing for the Chiefs to have the obligatory fumble. This season, they’ve added Patrick Mahomes throwing an obligatory braindead interception in the first half as he did it for the fourth game in a row.

I don’t get it at all, because he otherwise is usually protecting the ball well and making good decisions. But just once a game he’s completely losing it with an awful throw, and this one was arguably the worst dropback of his career given the damage it caused.

Mahomes tried to make a tackle on the defender and ended up taking out Rashee Rice’s knee in the process by accident. I’d expect to hear season-ending news on Monday for Rice after that hit. Just a brutal loss for the receiving corps as Rice clearly emerged as their new No. 1 target with Kelce about to turn 35 and looking slower.

Things just got so much harder as this game showed. At the very least, they were playing the Chargers, who don’t want to hear about big injuries as they have their own. Justin Herbert wasn’t 100% and couldn’t move well in this game, and that hurt their ability to score as they never did again after taking that 10-0 lead on short fields from the takeaways.

To their credit, Mahomes found rookie Xavier Worthy for a 54-yard touchdown bomb. If he can run a fuller route tree, they might be able to survive the loss of Rice on top of losing Hollywood Brown. But it’s going to put a lot of pressure on Kelce to deliver at a high level again, and they probably still need another wideout as Skyy Moore is Kadarius Toney quality. He’s a game destroyer.

But while I have my doubts about Worthy turning into an asset like Rice did last year, his final catch to ice the game on third down boosted my confidence. If he can become a full route runner, then maybe they’ll find a way to manage. But their three-peat chances took a major hit. I might even say the division would have been in danger had the Chargers not botched these last two weeks by playing Justin Herbert in Pittsburgh when they should have been resting him to get to this more important, winnable game.

But maybe the best news for the Chiefs after a brutal game was seeing how vulnerable Buffalo looked in Baltimore. Their revamped offense sure didn’t look threatening in that game once you realize they’re relying heavily on Khalil Shakir, Dalton Kincaid, and rookie Keon Coleman in that passing game. No one looks to be running away with this AFC, and it looks like mostly the same old foes. Is Derrick Henry going to run wild like that in January? Not likely. Not every week at least.

So, the Chiefs still have that edge over their rivals. But the injuries are piling up with Hollywood Brown, Pacheco, and now a huge one in Rice, who looked so good to start the season. Maybe it’s karma given he probably should have been suspended this season instead of the NFL waiting so long.

It’s still a lousy development if you had an interest in the three-peat happening. Watching this team each week, it gets harder to imagine things ending well this season. But maybe the script writers are playing the long game and have a vision in mind. A lot can happen between now and the playoffs, and somehow the Chiefs are still 4-0 along with the Vikings.

Steelers at Colts: The Full Justin Fields Experience

I called this one back in March when the Steelers made the bold trades to get rid of Kenny Pickett and acquire Justin Fields.

“You could call him Kenny “OneDrive” Pickett because if he only needed to score one touchdown to win the game, he wasn’t bad at doing it. Meanwhile, Fields was a nightmare in games even if he just had to set up a field goal attempt in a 3-point game.”

Pickett needed to go, but if there was one thing he was good at, it was delivering on the final drive to win the game. He was 7-4 (.636) on game-winning drive opportunities, an elite record. But Fields was 3-16 (.158), and we have seen him fail repeatedly in those situations in Chicago.

In drives that start in the final 10:00 when his team just needs a field goal, Fields is 2-for-17 at delivering a successful field goal drive. He’s 3-for-17 if you’re going to credit him for setting up a 65-yard field goal miss in Pittsburgh in 2021. One of those wins was in a game against the 2022 Texans where he started with the ball in the red zone after a Davis Mills interception, so he didn’t even have to do anything for that one. The other success was in Minnesota last year in a 12-10 game after Fields fumbled on the previous drive. But he was given another chance in that one.

Fields was able to hide his flaws in Weeks 1-3 when the Steelers were allowing 8.7 points per game. But similar to last year, Shane Steichen’s Colts were taking it to this defense. T.J. Watt was a ghost against that strong offensive line, and the Steelers were possibly fortunate that Joe Flacco had to finish the game as they got away from the run and deep passes that were killing Pittsburgh early. But once again, Anthony Richardson was injured on a run. With a bad hip, they watched him try to run the ball again only to slide late, show he was favoring that hip, and he took a helmet-to-helmet hit in the process. I really am doubting this guy’s long-term future in this league. He just can’t stay healthy on runs despite wanting to do it frequently.

Anyways, the Steelers allowed 27 points to the Colts, so it was going to take a superhuman effort from Fields. He definitely made some plays, and George Pickens sold him on a brutal fumble, but Fields had his own terrible fumble that was a game changer in the second half. He also had issues with the snap once again, a problem that’s been persistent since the preseason.

But similar to Chicago, Fields ran for some scores and it was a 27-24 game with the ball in his hands. Then just like in Chicago, he screwed things up without even getting into range for a kick. This time it was a near-fumble on a snap that he wasn’t ready for. Fields took the blame for it. It’s hard to say if he was being a good teammate or if he legitimately was the main reason the play happened, but again, this keeps happening since preseason. Just figure it out.

Fields could not rescue the drive after that fumbled snap set up a 2nd-and-22. The only reason his fourth-down pass wasn’t intercepted was because the defender, who didn’t need a catch there, dropped it. Tale as old as time.

Fields is 0-22 when his team allows more than 20 points in his career. I said in the offseason that the Steelers would falter in the close games they’re constantly in if Fields had to deliver game-winning drives, especially in higher-scoring games like this one. It was all on display on Sunday in Indy.

That’s why I would start Russell Wilson as soon as possible. We know what we’re getting with Fields, and it’s just not good enough. At least with Wilson, we know what’s been possible in the past, and we need to see if he can still be that guy here.

Saints at Falcons: Not the Worst Weekend in Georgia Football History After All

While Alabama was up big on Georgia on Saturday night, I tweeted that Derek Carr was going to lead a fourth-quarter comeback against the Falcons on Sunday.

Well, they were a minute away from securing it. But Kirk Cousins got the 30-yard penalty he needed on defensive pass interference to set up Younghoe Koo for the 58-yard game-winning field goal in a 26-24 thriller.

But make no mistake about it, the Saints gave this game away. Rashid Shaheed muffed a punt he probably had no business trying to catch, and it was recovered in the end zone for a (rare) touchdown. Carr threw a pick-six, so the Atlanta offense never found the end zone in this one despite the 26-24 score.

Then I also don’t get New Orleans’ strategy. Down 23-17, you’re going to run the ball on 3rd-and-goal from the 5 with under 5:00 left? Yeah, I understand you’re going to go for it on fourth down, but you better have a hell of a run that gains real yards there to make it worth it. Instead, Alvin Kamara had no blocking and lost 2 yards, setting up 4th-and-7. You almost wonder if the field goal was the better choice at that point, and Carr threw incomplete for Shaheed.

But Kamara finished the next drive in the end zone after the defense forced the three-and-out. You could see the Saints were suddenly thinking about the clock again as Carr’s feeble quarterback sneak attempts felt like someone who was trying to burn clock instead of scoring. That’s why the 6-point lead is such a shitty state to be in both offensively and defensively these days. You don’t want to score too soon on offense, because you fear losing to the long-range field goal from one of these kickers today that seemingly take little time to set up.

One DPI flag, and it was a fair call, and the Falcons were already in business. Koo delivered the kick and now both teams are 2-2 in the NFC South. The Saints are still winless when trailing in the fourth quarter since Carr arrived there last year, but they really should have won these last two games. Guess that’s why Dennis Allen is 5-26 in such games in his career.

Up next for the Saints is a trip to Kansas City next Monday night. Sure to do wonders for their fourth-quarter woes against the team no one can seem to kill.

Eagles at Buccaneers: Baker’s Day

I’m really not sure why the Eagles were a small favorite in this one on the road without A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Lane Johnson. That clearly had an impact as Jalen Hurts took 6 sacks, threw for 158 yards, barely ran, and Saquon Barkley achieved very little outside of his 59-yard run.

You’re not going to keep up with Baker Mayfield and all of Tampa Bay’s weapons with Dallas Goedert as your No. 1 target. The Buccaneers rolled over the Eagles with ease early and it would have been 28-0 if not for an easy dropped touchdown. But to that point, this was as big of an ass kicking as any game this season.

The Eagles got back into it at 30-16, including a 2-point return on a blocked extra point. But everything went downhill after Lavonte David forced a strip-sack of Hurts in the red zone as turnovers continue to plague him.

The receiver injuries are a big deal, but the sloppy play has been there all season for the Eagles. It wouldn’t surprise me if they let Nick Sirianni go if he misses the playoffs this year.

Vikings at Packers: Is Sam Darnold Really Going to Sustain This Run?

You might think a game that was 28-0 and ended 31-29 would be a little more exciting, but it felt like this was the game that would not end even though it never really felt like Green Bay was going to pull off the comeback.

Sure, anything is possible with the Minnesota franchise, but a 28-point Green Bay comeback? I’m not buying that even if Jordan Love seems more about these games than Brett Favre or Aaron Rodgers ever did. But he needs to stop putting them in a hole as this was not a strong return for him from his MCL injury. He threw 4 touchdowns, but he also threw 3 interceptions and had to throw it 54 times.

The Vikings continued to be very efficient on offense with Sam Darnold in building that 28-0 lead. He got into some turnover trouble with this one, and the Packers have been great at that defensively so far, but when it was 28-22, Darnold delivered right away with a great drive for a field goal to regain that 2-score cushion at 31-22. A drive like that tells me something is different for him this year as that probably would have been turnover No. 3 by him in the past on that drive, leading to a loss.

By the time Green Bay scored again, only 56 seconds remained, and you know how onside kicks go these days. So, it was never officially a comeback opportunity since the Packers never had the ball down one score.

That makes Minnesota the only team this season to not have any close games in the fourth quarter by that criteria. Didn’t I predict them to go 4-13? They’re already 4-0. This is going to be a disaster for my predictions, but I guess we’ll see if it’s sustained or not. But the Vikings have wins over the 49ers, Texans, and Packers in three straight weeks.

It’s impossible to admit they’re not playing very well right now. Even if it’s one of the hardest things to explain.

Broncos at Jets: Forget Everything I Said This Week About the Jets

Can we just ban games at MetLife Stadium? The Giants couldn’t score a touchdown there Thursday night, the Cowboys struggled too, and then these teams threatened to set offensive football back 80 years with some rain hampering things.

But what an embarrassing 10-9 loss for the Jets, who were a 7.5-point favorite. Bo Nix was on his way to some futility records as he couldn’t even complete a pass beyond the line of scrimmage in the first half.

Nix really went into halftime with a line of 7-of-15 for minus-7 yards, which shouldn’t even be possible. But he led a long touchdown drive in the third quarter, then the running game did all the work on the game-winning drive for a 47-yard field goal by Wil Lutz.

Aaron Rodgers had three shots to answer this, but the pass rush kept getting to him, and he’s just not able to escape like he used to. People are going to point to Greg Zuerlein missing the 50-yard field goal with 47 seconds left as the reason for the loss, but let’s be fair. The Jets caught a break when Lutz missed a 50-yard field goal with 1:27 left, or else it would have been 13-9, and Rodgers would have needed a touchdown on a day he just couldn’t finish a drive off for one.

Rodgers was 37-1 in starts where his team allowed fewer than 13 points before this 10-9 loss. The only loss was a 7-3 game against Detroit in 2010 that Rodgers left early with a concussion, so he never lost a game he finished when the team allowed fewer than 12 points. That’s exactly the kind of game the Jets brought him here to win with ease, but it just didn’t work out Sunday.

Under this coaching staff, it’s hard to believe this won’t be the last time they disappoint in a low-scoring loss this year. But losing to a rookie quarterback who threw for 60 yards on 25 attempts is just beyond the pale.

Rams at Bears: They Popped a Run

I guess I screwed up with this one. I thought maybe Jared Verse and company would rack up some sacks on Caleb Williams, and they ended up getting 3 as Williams had arguably his most complete game without any turnovers. Very few incompletions.

It helped that they finally gave him a running game. D’Andre Swift was averaging 2.0 yards per carry, and he ripped off a 36-yard touchdown run in this one as he finished with 93 yards on 16 carries. Amazing what some balance can do there, or literally anything better than 2.0 yards per carry.

Definitely a letdown for the Rams after the comeback against the 49ers last week. But Matthew Stafford was in position for another one here with the ball in his hands in a 24-18 game with 1:03 left. Granted, he had to go 92 yards, so it probably wasn’t happening. But it could have at least been dramatic. Instead, he instantly threw a pick under pressure and that was a wrap for the 1-3 Rams.

Commanders at Cardinals: Best Rookie QB Ever?

Ask me for the best rookie quarterback seasons ever, and I’d say Ben Roethlisberger sold me first on that title in 2004. Then I have always given Dak Prescott credit for doing it every week as a fourth-round pick for the 2016 Cowboys. I thought Deshaun Watson, back when I liked him, was on pace for the best rookie quarterback season before he tore his ACL in practice in 2017. Then C.J. Stroud did something special last year.

But Jayden Daniels is doing something truly special here with Washington, and that could land him the title of best rookie quarterback ever if he keeps this up. I’ll get more into the stats later this week when I do my QB rankings at 365Scores, but Daniels ran his streak to 16 straight scoring drives (kneeldowns excluded) in this game. That is as far as we know the longest streak ever by a quarterback.

Again, maybe the dynamic kickoff is helping here as more drives than ever start at the 30, and we saw a 15-drive scoring streak by Derek Carr to begin this 2024 season. But Daniels has a super high completion percentage and he’s stacking points in an offense that wasn’t expected to be this great under new coordinator Kliff Kingsbury, who suddenly looks like a genius again.

But they flat out cooked Arizona with 7-of-9 drives ending in scores. Daniels threw his first pick in the NFL, but that’s fine. He’s only punted once in the last three games.

Similar to last week, Kyler Murray led an opening-game touchdown drive and then did very little the rest of the way in the 42-14 loss. This was despite James Conner rushing for 104 yards and Marvin Harrison Jr. catching another touchdown. I know tight end Trey McBride was out with a concussion, but Murray has enough weapons to score more than 14 points and throw for more than 142 yards against that bad Washington defense.

But what a surprising 3-1 start by the Commanders. They get Cleveland next week at home, so it might be 4-1 too.

Browns at Raiders: Sack Merchant Goes Down Again

It’s difficult because I truly believe Antonio Pierce is not cut out for this job with this particular team. But they have scrappily come up with 10-point comeback wins in games they really had no business winning. The Browns were up 10-0 early while the Raiders were missing their two best players, Davante Adams and Maxx Crosby.

But the Raiders were patient with the running game that finally paid off with some production. The only eyesore was Zamir White coughing up a fumble for a touchdown to start the fourth quarter and give the Browns a shot after they were down 20-10.

However, Cleveland missed the extra point and keeping it 20-16 proved to be huge as they could never get the ball in the end zone the rest of the way. Deshaun Watson had his chances, but even without facing Crosby, the sack merchant in him came out in the end and he took a sack to end the game on a 4th-and-3 at the Vegas 9 with 35 seconds left.

They could have just kicked the field goal for overtime there had they not missed the extra point to start the fourth quarter. Oh well.

Bengals at Panthers: Cincinnati Finally Gets a Win

No, the Panthers did not stack wins, but let’s not forget the defense stinks too and they traded Brian Burns to New York. It would have helped to have a pass rusher like that to go after Joe Burrow, who did not take a sack. But he did throw an awful pick in the fourth quarter that gave the Panthers some hope after falling behind 31-14 at one point.

Andy Dalton may not be a miracle maker, but he is clearly better than Bryce Young right now. Seeing the Panthers score 24 points in consecutive games is a good sign that Dave Canales will get his offense right eventually in Carolina.

Came up short in this one, but you have to like the fight of the underdog. They had the ball in a 31-24 game late before Dalton threw three incompletions in a row in a disappointing drive with 4:23 left. The Bengals were able to stick to the ground game and added a decisive field goal with 1:14 left in the 34-24 win, their first of the year.

Lower the temperature on the hot seat for Zac Taylor, but let’s not get comfortable. They have to play the Ravens next week, so 1-4 may be in their near future. If Dalton and Chuba Hubbard are doing this to your defense a week after Jayden Daniels and Brian Robinson got you bad, good luck with Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry.

Jaguars at Texans: My MVP Delivers

Trevor Lawrence hasn’t won a start since that big game in Houston last year when it looked like the Jaguars would repeat as AFC South champions. What a change-up there with Houston being the team favored to do that this year. This win will help even if it wasn’t a dominant response after last week’s ugly loss to the Vikings.

It looked like Lawrence might end the streak as the Jaguars were up 20-17 and driving for more when the fourth quarter started. I fully agree with running Lawrence on 4th-and-1 at the 1, but they just didn’t make it happen. Huge stop by Houston.

I think C.J. Stroud did a great job overcoming 12 penalties for 93 yards by Houston. That made things really hard in the fourth quarter when you’re facing 2nd-and-25, 3rd-and-18, and 3rd-and-20 because of these penalties on your linemen. There were a couple of big holds on Laremy Tunsil, who was hurt at one point in the game.

It wasn’t looking good when Houston had to punt with 3:51 left, but the Jaguars only burned 57 seconds off the clock thanks to a pair of incompletions by Lawrence. The Texans avoided any more penalties, and Stroud was able to drive 69 yards for the game-winning touchdown with 18 seconds left.

The Jaguars were very close to a safety on the final lateral-filled play, which would have hit the over and covered the spread for Houston. Bummer. I’ll have to check the air yards update, but it did continue the trend of Lawrence losing another game after he completed under 60% of his passes (18-for-33 after a good start).

But having a quarterback like Stroud is a huge advantage for Houston over much of the AFC. Someone you can actually trust with the game on the line. At least we think so. This is his fourth game-winning drive already, and the team is 5-2 in game-winning drive opportunities under coach DeMeco Ryans.

Patriots at 49ers: Finally, a Blowout in an Expected Blowout

The 49ers (-10.5) were our first double-digit spread of the season, my No. 1 pick this week, and they delivered with a 30-13 win that still left you wanting a bit more from the offense. They leaned on a great Fred Warner pick-six, a dominant pass rush against that poor line, and George Kittle made an unbelievable touchdown catch in his return game.

But not great play inside the 25-yard line by the 49ers on offense. It’s nothing to be worried about, and at least they seemed to get through this one healthy. That’s the most important thing right now.

Next week: Bucs-Falcons on Thursday night isn’t bad. Not sure I will get up that early for Jets-Vikings after the shitshow the Jets put on this week. Sleep is more important to me. The first Ravens-Bengals game of the year is a big one. Buffalo at Houston in the same 1:00 p.m. slot is interesting as that’s stacked for the AFC. The Sunday late-afternoon slate looks absolutely brutal. Consider this a trigger warning. Cowboys at Steelers for SNF is interesting; can go a lot of ways. Saints-Chiefs on Monday night. Again, can the team that can’t lose a close 4Q game actually lose one to the team who can’t come back in the 4Q anymore? Sounds like a regression opportunity.

NFL 2024 Week 4 Predictions: Everybody’s Hurt Edition

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

I highly doubt this is the first time I’ve used that title. But it’s another one of those weeks where it just seems like too many good players are injured and either won’t play or won’t be anywhere near 100%, which makes it harder to do predictions.

This Week’s Articles

NFL 2024 Week 4 Predictions

Those damn Cowboys couldn’t cover the 5.5-point spread in New York. Brandon Aubrey looks like the next great kicker, but his first miss from 50-plus was costly. Oh well.

I think it’d be so funny to see Andy Dalton drop the Bengals to 0-4, but I’m not trusting it that much with their WR injuries. I’m also starting to think a Zack Moss TD is my favorite play in that game. Didn’t Joe Mixon score like 5 touchdowns in 2022 against this team?

I like the Jets to win big over the Broncos. Run it up, Nathaniel Hackett. They beat the Broncos by 10 in Denver last year with Zach Wilson. Should be able to cover 7.5 at home with Aaron Rodgers.

A lot of injuries for the Saints but it sounds like Alvin Kamara and Chris Olave could both play? I’m cautiously picking the Saints. Maybe they finally end that 4th-quarter comeback drought in this one.

Trusting my preseason hype teams, Packers and Texans, to cover at home in division games. Let’s hope Jordan Love is looking like the late 2023 version Love.

Feels like a trap game for the Steelers, who lost 30-13 in Indy last year. Yeah, Anthony Richardson is messy, but his OL is great and that should at least make this a tougher game for T.J. Watt to dominate. Let’s not forget Justin Fields is 0-21 when his team allows more than 20 points. The Colts may not get there, but I expect the Steelers to allow more points this week.

Still going to trust Matthew Stafford in Chicago after last week’s effort to upset the 49ers. Just don’t trust the Chicago offense.

Sounds like the Eagles won’t have A.J. Brown or DeVonta Smith. Tampa has more weapons for sure in this matchup, and I think they bounce back after ugly loss last week to Denver. Shouldn’t be as decisive as the wild card game, but a Tampa win.

Don’t believe in the Patriots at all this year. Calmly taking the 49ers to cover the first double-digit spread of the season after last week’s choke. Sounds like reinforcements are coming back this week on offense.

The Kliff Kingsbury revenge game is something I plan on doing a lot of SGPs for tomorrow. Kliff Kingsbury Revenge Game in Arizona. Jayden Daniels has led 14 straight scoring drives. Maybe a parlay again with him scoring 2 TDs and 2 for Marvin Harrison Jr.? Maybe split it with a TD for Jayden and one for Brian Robinson (or James Conner). I have high hopes for this game. Hope it doesn’t end 16-13.

The Chargers might be getting a gimpy Justin Herbert without his tackles and Derwin James. The Chiefs are favored by 7. That means a Harrison Butker GW FG. Possibly in OT too. But seriously, I had the Chargers winning this game in my preseason picks and I think that would be a good pick this week if not for these injuries. They should have sat Herbert last week.

Hate to see Cleveland win these days, but without Maxx Crosby and Davante Adams, I’m going to give the edge to the Browns. But keep in mind that Cleveland defense hasn’t travelled well. Could be some Minshew magic at work here.

Find the preview link above for Bills-Ravens from me. I’m going with Buffalo as I think they have a good read on what Lamar Jackson does, and Josh Allen is in a zone right now. The Baltimore defense is struggling, and I like the Bills to take this one.

Maybe Miami is the only team Will Levis looks clutch against. Going with Tyler Huntley should help the Miami offense, but I think the Titans pull one out for their first win.

Seattle has won the last two years in Detroit in epic shootouts. I think this one is lower scoring but Mike Macdonald’s defense is still the story as they get to Jared Goff and Geno Smith outplays him for a tight win. Could be a good one.

2024 NFL Stat Oddity: Week 3

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

I don’t think I’m going to like this season very much. You know there are some shenanigans going on when the first 3-0 teams were the Steelers, Vikings, and Seahawks. None of those teams were favored to even make the playoffs this year.

The Chiefs got there too on Sunday night, but after winning their eighth one-score game during this 9-game winning streak, it doesn’t look like this will be anywhere close to the strongest Kansas City team yet. Might even be the complete opposite.

There are six teams who were in the playoffs last year, including both No. 1 seeds, that are sitting at 1-2: Dolphins, Ravens, Browns, Cowboys, Rams, and 49ers.

Big favorites continue to go down at alarming rates. On Sunday, the four teams who were favored by 6.5 points were 0-4 SU (Buccaneers, Browns, 49ers, and Raiders). There were 18 such losses all of last season and 14 in 2022. We’re already up to seven this season.

Things are just crazy right now, injuries are piling up for many teams, and it’s not like blown leads/comebacks are largely responsible for these results. There were only six games with a comeback opportunity in Week 3, and only two games had a fourth-quarter lead change.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

49ers at Rams: Game of the Week

I thought the Eagles had the worst blown lead in the fourth quarter by a team this season after what they did in each phase against the Falcons on Monday night. But the 49ers may have found a way to outdo it here.

First, Brock Purdy was fantastic in this game. He finished 22-of-30 for 292 yards and 3 touchdowns (all to Jauan Jennings), but that doesn’t account for 6 drops. Ronnie Bell should take a permanent seat on the bench with his Limas Sweed ass hands. Purdy even ran 10 times and looked as mobile as ever as he tried to get the job done for his offense in a game without Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle, and Deebo Samuel. His only real mistake was a strip-sack before halftime, but that was right after Trent Williams momentarily left the game with an injury, and it didn’t lead to any points for the Rams.

The short-yardage running game hurt them in the fourth quarter when Jordan Mason couldn’t convert a 3rd-and-short, causing the 49ers to settle for a field goal and 24-14 lead. Later, a holding penalty ruined a drive, but Jake Moody could have made a 55-yard field goal with 2:43 to effectively ice it as a 10-point game, but he missed it. I thought he gained some confidence last year with some big kicks in the playoffs, but this was a big miss in a season where everyone seems to be crushing it from deep.

Then the defense had its letdowns with Matthew Stafford, who didn’t have Cooper Kupp or Puka Nacua, using Tutu Atwell for deep balls to quickly get in scoring range. A 50-yard pass to Atwell set up a Kyren Williams touchdown and it was 24-24 with 1:51 left.

Purdy again did his job on the next drive, but Bell had a horrible drop down the field that set up 3rd-and-10. The Rams forced a punt, and the special teams further contributed to the downfall with a 38-yard punt return by the Rams with 42 seconds left.

The 49ers somehow had three defensive penalties on one snap with the pass interference moving the ball halfway to the 25. You can basically run the clock down there, which the Rams did, and they kicked a 37-yard field goal with 0:02 seconds left to take a 27-24 lead. A shocking comeback and total failure by the 49ers in so many ways, and yet somehow still appropriate for what we’ve come to expect from a Kyle Shanahan team.

I must say the 49ers looked like they had something cooking on their lateral play to end things. Definitely one of the better attempts you’ll see at trying to go 70 yards in one play.

A loss would have buried the season for the Rams (1-2). This loss doesn’t bury the 49ers (1-2), but it could haunt them for seeding. Seattle getting off to a 3-0 start isn’t ideal either, but the teams will meet in Seattle on a Thursday night in Week 6 after the 49ers have some winnable home games with the Patriots and Cardinals.

But the 49ers absolutely wasted one of the best games Purdy will give them this year. The loss will cause others to ignore how well he did with all the injuries they had too. Just a rough day all around if you’re a 49ers fan.

Chiefs at Falcons: Old Hat

I think from 2018-22, the Kansas City Chiefs were the main attraction in the NFL. They played the most entertaining style of offense, and they were involved in the biggest and best games of this era. They were a spectacle to watch.

But the 2023-24 Chiefs? I can see why so many people have turned to hating them, and it’s not just sour grapes over losing big games to them. They’ve become annoying to watch in a Spygate-era Patriots way in that it seems like every game is close, they leave a lot of doubt on the field, and they seem like they still find a way to win these games.

It happened again Sunday night in Atlanta, and while the Chiefs (-3) still covered with the 22-17 win, it was the kind of game that will only fuel the doubters who want to see someone else win the Super Bowl this year.

For the third week in a row, Patrick Mahomes threw a braindead interception. This time it was in the end zone on a 17-play opening drive, so the over bettors were already pissed. The only explanation is Justin Simmons just has that Mahomes voodoo that Ty Law once had for Peyton Manning, because he did it to Mahomes again despite changing teams from Denver to Atlanta.

Fortunately, that was the only turnover the Chiefs had in this game as they couldn’t afford another. They even avoided the obligatory fumble for a change, and Mahomes did not take any sacks. I’m not sure what the snap counts were yet, but the Chiefs did start Wanya Morris at left tackle over rookie Kingsley Suamataia, who was benched in the fourth quarter last week.

However, Travis Kelce really is starting to look washed up as he had just 30 yards on 4 catches, and he hurt the team with a third-down drop in the fourth quarter when they tried to add to the small lead. Kelce is seeing more action in his commercials and new FX series than he does on the field these days.

You combine Kelce possibly falling off a cliff with the injuries to Hollywood Brown and running back Isiah Pacheco, and the Chiefs aren’t offering a whole lot on offense outside of Rashee Rice, who continues to look fantastic as the new No. 1 option. He had 12 catches for 110 yards and a touchdown, accounting for half of Mahomes’ 217 yards and the only gain longer than 17 yards for the offense on the night.

But the Chiefs keep trying to spread the wealth, get other people involved, and their short-yardage offense hasn’t been too impressive. For all the hype about their interior line, you’d think they would do a better job of just pounding it in there.

But the back-to-back three-and-out drives in the fourth quarter do look like an offense that just isn’t what it used to be. Kelce would have held onto that ball in the past. On a late 3rd-and-2, Mahomes looked like he had multiple options on crossing routes, but he chose Xavier Worthy, and the rookie just stopped running on the play to cause an ugly incompletion with 2:26 left. I don’t think JuJu would have done that two years ago, and I know Sammy Watkins wouldn’t have back in the day.

The offense kept giving Atlanta chances to answer with a touchdown the way Kirk Cousins delivered Monday night in Philadelphia. But despite getting three chances in the fourth quarter, Cousins couldn’t get the job done as the Falcons dealt with more pressure from Steve Spagnuolo’s defense, and some injured offensive linemen made it tougher as does Cousins’ lack of mobility. There was a 3rd-and-2 “scramble” in the game where any young, mobile quarterback would have picked it up, but that’s just not happening for Cousins at this stage of his career. But that play was a good example of why the stationary pocket passer is such a dying breed in the NFL.

The referees didn’t help Atlanta much either. Yep, the officials were back in the spotlight at the end of a Kansas City game, and it was more appropriate this time compared to last week against the Bengals. Down 22-17 with just over 4:00 left, Cousins tried to find tight end Kyle Pitts in the end zone, and the Chiefs got away with some obvious pass interference. No flag.

He arrived early, he hugged Pitts, and he didn’t try to play the ball. That should have been an easy call to make. Then on fourth down, I don’t think that one was interference, but some of course will say that because it’s the Chiefs and this is the weekly thing we do now. But again, that comes back to never blowing teams out and leaving this type of doubt.

Then when the Falcons got the ball back with 2:26 left, you saw the make-up calls in full effect from the refs. The Falcons got a phantom DPI flag on Trent McDuffie for 11 yards. Then there was a horse collar tackle penalty, which looked legitimate enough, and that was another 15 yards. So, the calls most certainly don’t always go to Kansas City’s benefit.

But that horse collar was the last time the Falcons moved the chains. I think they got caught up playing the clock with Mahomes on the other side, they wanted to score late as possible, and they forgot to call good plays that make use of Cousins’ abilities. They brought in Tyler Allgeier for a big 3rd-and-1 run, and the Chiefs stopped him for no gain. Neither team wanting to run the QB sneak is a problem in this situation.

The Falcons then tried another 4th-and-1 run with Bijan Robinson, but he was stuffed for a 3-yard loss with 51 seconds left. Ballgame. That’s four plays in a row where the Falcons didn’t bother to let Cousins throw anything more than a horizontal pass.

Mahomes then did a smart move on the first down by waiting several seconds before he finally took a knee. The other knees were much quicker, and he nearly injured himself on one, but he timed it just right to where the Chiefs didn’t have to punt the ball back.

The Chiefs have now won 9 straight games by a combined 54 points, an average margin of victory of 6.0 points per game. That’s the tiniest margin of victory among the 119 teams in NFL history who had a winning streak of at least 9 games.

It’s not like this is uncharted territory for the Chiefs. In 2020, they tied the NFL record with 7 straight wins by 1-to-8 points. They also won 10 games in a row that year by an average of just 8.9 points per game. Only the 1999 Colts with Peyton Manning (8.7) had a lower margin of victory for a double-digit game winning streak.

The Chiefs can take that record next if they beat the Chargers next week by a slim margin. That’s usually what they do to that team.

It’s usually what they do to everyone these days. But that run in 2020 with the close wins was answered with some playoff blowouts, including their 31-9 loss in Super Bowl 55. It also led to a 3-4 start in 2021 during some of the worst losses of the Mahomes era like 38-20 to Buffalo and 27-3 in Tennessee.

So, you do wonder if this team will hit some regression to the mean and start losing these close games or losing by bigger margins during this three-peat attempt. We have always talked about the Chiefs in the context of an elite offense, or in last year’s case, it was an elite defense. Through three games this year, they don’t particularly look elite on either side of the ball. In fact, they look a bit ordinary.

Still 3-0, but not the same spectacle as 2018-22. No longer must-see TV unless you’re into watching reruns of mediocre episodes of your favorite shows. Alas, with the way the rest of the league is playing to start this season, it still might be enough to make history in the end.

Ravens at Cowboys: Almost a Collapse

Is this what every big game in Jerry World is going to look like for Dallas now? The opponent piles up big plays and touchdowns, forcing Dak Prescott to just keep throwing for a ton of volume with no real shot at winning the game. It’s the third time in a row at home with the Packers in the playoffs, the Saints last week, and now the Ravens in this 28-25 final that was somehow a bigger blowout than that suggests, and still really close of a collapse for the Ravens.

Oh yes, I don’t think a win here absolves Baltimore that much for an 0-2 start. This game still reinforced some issues they have with holding leads as they lead the NFL in blown leads of multiple possessions since 2021. The Cowboys cut a 28-6 deficit into 28-25 and were just unfortunate that the defense couldn’t get them the ball back one more time.

The Ravens were explosive with big plays on the ground with Derrick Henry and through the air with Lamar Jackson completing 12 passes for 182 yards. But salting the game away was poorly done, Justin Tucker missed another easy field goal on a day where his new GOAT competition Brandon Aubrey nailed a 65-yard field goal, and you still question if the Ravens would ever dare use this strategy in January with 15 passes to 45 runs.

They absolutely should as I argued this offseason. But they have this obsession with turning Jackson into the passer he’s not and throwing the ball much more in those games when he’s clearly at his most comfortable in a game like this where he threw 15 passes and ran 14 times.

Jackson is now 21-1 against NFC opponents, because they just don’t know him the way his AFC foes (Chiefs, Steelers, Bills, etc.) do. It’s a unique challenge, and I’m not surprised the Cowboys failed it.

But it did get a little too close for comfort at the end there, and I’m not sure how Baltimore keeps letting this happen under John Harbaugh.

Chargers at Steelers: Felt More Like Ravens vs. Steelers

In 2011, Mike Tomlin’s Steelers faced Jim Harbaugh’s 49ers with Ben Roethlisberger struggling through a high-ankle sprain. Pittsburgh was a 3-point underdog, and Ben struggled with 3 interceptions in a 20-3 loss.

Fast forward to 2024, the second career meeting between Tomlin and Harbaugh, and the tables were turned. This time it was Justin Herbert coming in as a 3-point underdog on a high-ankle sprain against an elite defense. He ended up losing 20-10 and didn’t even finish the game.

It’s not a good formula for success, but incredibly, these quarterbacks started a combined 19-for-19 in this game, the best in any game since 1991. It was a ton of short stuff with Fields being safe and Herbert keeping that leg safe for as long as he could. Neither running game was getting it done against these tough defenses.

But in a 10-10 game in the third quarter, the floodgates opened up on the Chargers. Herbert tried to capitalize on Fields’ first turnover of the year after Bud Dupree came down with an interception that was tipped around several players. But Herbert was sacked, and he hurt himself on that one and couldn’t return to the game.

Keep in mind the Chargers already lost edge rusher Joey Bosa in this game. They’d later lose both offensive tackles (Rashawn Slater and rookie Joe Alt) as well. T.J. Watt was getting shut out by Alt, but once those floodgates opened in the third, the Chargers couldn’t stop it. Taylor Heinicke tried to finish the game for Herbert, but he took 3 sacks on 5 dropbacks (!) as the Steelers allowed minus-5 yards of offense in the entire second half.

Fields technically gets credit for a game-winning drive in this one to break the 10-10 tie early with Chris Boswell’s 38-yard field goal, but the Chargers sure did help that along with three penalties for 34 yards on third downs alone to extend the drive.

My hopes of seeing how Fields would perform in a game where a quarterback like Herbert could force him to score in the fourth quarter to win it were dashed when Herbert couldn’t go anymore. Frankly, they probably made a huge mistake in playing him at all this week since this was always a high possibility, and they have the Chiefs up next, a much more important divisional game with the Chiefs looking vulnerable too.

But Fields also put the game away with a 55-yard touchdown pass over the middle to Calvin Ausitn, who showed off his speed. It was the best game Fields played this year by far, and one of the best wins of his career with ease.

I’m still on board with thinking Russell Wilson should get a chance to start in this offense too, but the Steelers are seeing more of Fields each week and he is getting better. The points still aren’t really there, but it hasn’t mattered when you’re giving up 28 points in 3 games.

Eagles at Saints: Let Them Off the Hook

The dumbest team to win this week was definitely Philadelphia. It was evident early on that this was not going to be a high-scoring week for the Saints like the last few have been. Even after starting the game with a field goal, the Saints didn’t have a drive that gained more than 13 yards until the fourth quarter.

Incredibly, this game was still a 3-0 Saints lead going into the fourth quarter despite a total near 50. This is also because the Eagles kept passing up makeable field goals and failing on fourth down. Jalen Hurts had a frustrating game as he completed most of his passes for 311 yards, but he also had multiple turnovers, 4th-down failures, and took 4 sacks.

But it was a game without A.J. Brown that soon became a game without DeVonta Smith too after a dirty-looking hit, and Lane Johnson was also knocked out at right tackle.

But the Eagles did have Saquon Barkley, who rushed for 147 yards and two touchdowns. They also had tight end Dallas Goedert, who had a monster game with 10 catches for 170 yards. Goedert made the critical play on a 3rd-and-16 on the game-winning drive when he got free for 61 yards.

You had three Saints defenders run into each other on the play. A natural pick by the Eagles neutralized the first one, but then veteran corner Marshon Lattimore (No. 23) ran right into his teammate and that’s why Goedert was so wide open. It was like watching the early and mid-2010s Saints on defense.

The Saints are the only NFL team not to win a game after trailing in the fourth quarter since 2023. That was supposed to be a strength of bringing Derek Carr to New Orleans. He had a go-ahead touchdown pass to Chris Olave in this one with 2:03 left, but the Saints missed the crucial 2-point conversion that would have made it 15-7. Instead, the Eagles got the 8 points with Barkley scoring both with 1:01 left.

Carr still had time and a timeout to force overtime with a field goal, but similar to Hurts against Atlanta last week, he took a risk quickly and was intercepted to end the game at 15-12. After leading 15 straight scoring drives to begin 2024, Carr couldn’t even get the team to 15 points in this one.

It was Week 3 last year in Green Bay when the Saints blew a 17-0 lead and missed a clutch field goal that really destroyed their playoff hopes in the end. Let’s hope this game doesn’t set them on a similar path as this was a huge outcome in the NFC to get the Eagles to 2-1 while those teams like Dallas and San Francisco keep losing.

Texans at Vikings: Wiped the Flores with My MVP’s Offense

I guess all that’s left is for the Vikings to start 4-0 by beating up my Super Bowl pick (Packers) next week too. They already won three games in a row against teams I thought would beat them, especially the 49ers and Texans, and they’re only getting stronger after taking down Houston 34-7.

C.J. Stroud is usually very hard to intercept, but he had a pair in this game, he only led one touchdown drive, and he also lost 42 yards on 4 sacks. Defensive coordinator Brian Flores had them flustered, and I don’t think it would have made any difference if running back Joe Mixon was active.

Sam Darnold didn’t have all the big plays this week, but he was smart with the ball, effective, and he threw 4 touchdowns out of it. He’s holding the ball and still making good decisions. We’ll just have to see if he continues it into October or if he starts seeing ghosts again.

But between the schedule looking legit and the team controlling these games on their way to 3-0, I’m dumbfounded by this start. Just never seemed logical that a team that lost Kirk Cousins and Danielle Hunter would get better on both sides of the ball. Not to mention WR2 Jordan Addison has been out with an injury, and tight end T.J. Hockenson has yet to even play in 2024.

They could theoretically get better. But I’m still not ready to crown the Vikings as the new flash in the pan in the NFC. Probably should get on that Kevin O’Connell for Coach of the Year campaign though.

Broncos at Buccaneers: Not “Bo Picks” This Week

This felt like a trap game to me, so the only bet I had on it was for Bo Nix to throw a pick. He’s had multiple picks in both games, and you had to figure the Bucs would send some heat and get him to mess up in a game where he should have needed to score a fair amount to win.

But man, that was way off. The 0-2 Broncos went across country to pants the 2-0 Buccaneers in their building in a 26-7 final. Nix was in control early, he avoided the turnovers and sacks, and he may have led the Broncos in rushing once again if not for a backup (Badie) breaking a 43-yard run.

That’s an encouraging start. As for the Buccaneers, so much for the Baker Mayfield hype. After Aidan Hutchinson had 4.5 sacks of Mayfield for Detroit last week, Mayfield went down 7 times in this one as the Bucs are struggling up front. Mayfield completed 25 passes but for only 163 yards, which ties Joe Montana for the fewest yards ever in a game with exactly 25 completions. A little weird it came in a game against Denver as we just saw Denver set that record for the fewest yards in games with 26 completions (Nix in Week 1) and 27 completions (Russell Wilson in Week 1, 2023).

Maybe it’s just a Denver thing and it goes both ways. But definitely an upset I wasn’t ready for as the Bucs were just never a threat the whole game.

Bears at Colts: Comically Inept

I know Caleb Williams (2) and Anthony Richardson (6) came into this game with 8 starts between them as the youngest quarterbacks in the NFL. But I still found myself during the third quarter thinking of how this would have been Jay Cutler vs. Andrew Luck a decade ago, and that was just more interesting to me. Maybe these two are the future, but right now, they are raw as hell and I question how much help they’re getting from their play callers.

Both had multiple completions of 40-plus yards for the highlight tapes, but both missed easy throws and had multiple interceptions too. It’s a good thing for Richardson that Jonathan Taylor rushed for 110 yards and two scores to really put the game away. Williams ended up throwing the ball 52 times and gained 363 yards, but some of those yards were hollow like his Hail Mary completion to D.J. Moore before halftime that gained 44 yards but was stopped at the 1-yard line.

But the Bears again barely averaged 2.0 yards per carry, proving that the offensive line is dog shit. The Colts couldn’t stop the run at all in Weeks 1-2, but they had few problems in this one. Chicago’s play-calling in the red zone was also horrible, including a ridiculous sequence in the first half where they came away with no points.

Good on Williams to survive a game with this many throws and keep the sacks down to 4, but he’ll still have to do better than that. Still, I’m not sure Richardson is even capable of a game like this in the NFL. He’s throwing for 40 yards or giving you nothing with his arm right now.

Good on the Colts to see Laiatu Latu come up with a strip-sack in a big moment in the fourth quarter when Williams had the ball in a 14-9 game.

That’s why you draft someone like Latu the way Indy did in this offensive-driven class.

Lions at Cardinals: The Shootout That Wasn’t

I was really hoping for a shootout in this one, and it looked promising when both offenses marched right down the field for touchdowns. But there was very little after that as Kyler Murray struggled to throw for 100 yards until late in the second half when the Cardinals were still desperately down 20-10.

It could have been closer as the refs had a costly mistake at the 2-minute warning in the first half when it sure looked like the Cardinals produced a defensive return touchdown. But they tried to say the 2:00 warning hit, but it appeared the ball was snapped at 2:01. Huge turnaround there as the Lions turned that drive into a touchdown on a nifty designed lateral play from Amon-Ra St. Brown to Jahmyr Gibbs.

The Lions never scored the rest of the way, and it was just a matter of holding on as the Cardinals couldn’t run with James Conner, Trey McBride suffered a concussion, and Murray was floating a lot of bad passes to Marvin Harrison Jr. Just not an efficient offensive performance at all after the first two weeks were so good.

The Detroit defense looks improved this year, but it was still up to the offense to run out the clock in a 20-13 game. Goff found St. Brown on a third-and-12, then he iced the game with an 8-yard scramble.

But not many offensive fireworks to see here – keeping up the 2024 brand for the league.

Packers at Titans: Malik Willis Is Better Than Will Levis?

The revenge game is usually a tired narrative, but this time it really worked out. Not that Malik Willis should feel like the Titans did him dirty. He really struggled when he was with them, but in playing for Green Bay these last two weeks, he has done an incredible job of managing the game.

This week was even better than last as Willis passed for a career-high 202 yards on just 19 throws, and he ran for 73 yards and a touchdown. A true dual-threat performance. He also did it this week with much less help from his running backs on the ground unlike last week against the Colts.

To make things sweeter for Willis, he thrived while Will Levis continues to show that his version of “Big Dick Energy” is to play like there’s zero consequences for your actions just because you’re packing a hammer. Levis took 8 sacks and had 3 more turnovers as the Packers are getting splash plays galore to start this season under their new defensive coordinator.

With the hope that Jordan Love is close to returning, my Super Bowl pick of Green Bay is still looking decent. They know they have a viable backup option in a pinch with Willis, and we’ll see a return to more passing when Love gets back. The defense in the meantime just needs to keep this up as they’ve been very impressive in creating negative plays.

Giants at Browns: Please, Call More Plays Where Deshaun Watson Gets Sacked

Okay, the spread never should have been Browns -6.5, because this team is just not that good with the albatross that is Deshaun Watson at quarterback. He’s actually worse than Daniel Jones right now, and he was certainly worse in this game as he took a whopping 8 sacks.

The Giants fumbled the opening kickoff and gave up a short field touchdown to the Browns, but that Cleveland offense did almost nothing the entire rest of the game. Those fumbles were also the only thing keeping this from being a New York blowout as Danny Dimes did actually deliver on his end. He threw two touchdowns to rookie Malik Nabers, who looks very much like the real deal, and he cut down on sacks and turnovers in a big way this week.

I actually feel bad for Cleveland coach Kevin Stefanski as he knows he is likely stuck for Watson for a couple more years. That’s assuming it doesn’t cost him his job. I wouldn’t blame him if he purposely called plays with minimal protection and exposed Watson to more hits in the hopes that he gets injured, and they can keep him off the field that way. The guy was literally just accused of rape once again in a new lawsuit. He doesn’t get any benefit of the doubt, and I don’t know how this team will get through a season if they have to keep playing him when Jameis Winston would obviously outperform him.

Dolphins at Seahawks: Not the Most Unlikely 3-0 Start

Sure, most people probably didn’t see the Seahawks starting 3-0 this year. But with the schedule of quarterbacks, it was very reasonable. They’ve drawn Bo Nix in his rookie debut, a New England passing game that doesn’t want to exist with Jacoby Brissett, and then a break this week with Skylar Thompson starting for an injured Tua Tagovailoa (concussion).

We know Geno Smith and his weapons are good enough to go 9-8. Mike Macdonald just had to improve the defense, and who knows. But we won’t really start to see the defense tested until Week 4 against Detroit.

But this game, it was a 24-3 laugher as the Dolphins were literally showing their ass on the field.

Boy, that stunk. Miami was 1-of-12 on third down, and Thompson took 5 sacks before leaving the game with an injury. It could be Tim Boyle time in Miami next week, or maybe Tyler Huntley who just signed. At what point do we ask if Mike McDaniel and his staff are doing something wrong with their quarterbacks if they’re this brittle that you have to start three in three games? I thought that was a historic outlier when they did it in 2022, but it might happen again here.

All the speed in the world doesn’t mean a damn thing with the wrong player at quarterback.

Panthers at Raiders: Bryce Young Was the Problem After All

Guess I should have bet the house on Andy Dalton after all. He was my No. 1 prop pick this week, I picked the Panthers (+6.5) to win outright, but even then I never expected this 36-22 outcome that completely disproves the idea that Bryce Young had no protection or weapons in Carolina.

The problem was the shortcomings of the quarterback. Similar to last year when Dalton started a game in place of Young for the Panthers, he threw for over 300 yards. But this time he did it much more efficiently, and before you say it was just the Raiders, check again how Maxx Crosby and company fared against Justin Herbert and Lamar Jackson to start this season.

Dalton is now the only quarterback this season to throw for over 300 yards and 3 touchdowns in a game. Crazy, right? He got a career game out of Diontae Johnson with 122 yards and a touchdown. Even the running game showed up as Chuba Hubbard rushed for 114 yards.

The Panthers finally ended their 20-game streak of never taking a snap with a fourth-quarter lead. I don’t think Dalton can go too far with this team, but for one game against the Raiders, he was electric. About time we watch a veteran with more than a decade of experience just sling it on these defenses.

There’s almost none of that in the NFL right now, so I fully support Dalton starting more games while Young “sits and learns” from it all. But this game probably did nuke his trade value even more.

Next week: Cowboys-Giants on TNF? Oh, it’s really over for Dallas if they’re going to lose to Danny Dimes next. Saints-Falcons has some importance in the NFC South, Andy Dalton can stack wins against the Bengals, the Steelers can harass Anthony Richardson to start 4-0, the Vikings-Packers game could somehow be the Game of the Week if Jordan Love returns, and let’s just hope Justin Herbert can return for the Kansas City game. Bills-Ravens a big one on Sunday night I get to preview later this week. Another Monday night doubleheader (not a fan) too, and Seahawks-Lions definitely more interesting than Titans-Dolphins (no one cares).

NFL 2024 Week 3 Predictions: “Ravens Can’t Go 0-3, Can They?” Edition

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

I’m still up at 6 AM since I did my WNBA 2024 Playoff Preview, something I’d never imagined I would be doing, but here we are. It’s crazy to think they’re going to start the playoffs on an NFL Sunday, one that could be very good too.

I always enjoy Week 3 as some teams have given us wildly different data points in the first two games, and we have to figure out which one to believe in more. But the game I’m really interested in is Cowboys vs. Ravens as both teams could really use it after last week, but the Ravens need it even more to avoid starting 0-3.

Since 2002, 103 teams have started 0-3 and only the 2018 Texans (11-5) won more than 9 games and made the playoffs. One out of 103. That’s also 0-for-16 since the playoff expansion in 2020 and 0-for-10 since the 17th game was added in 2021. The Ravens better show up for that one after coming up short these first two weeks.

But can you trust anything this season with the way big-name injuries are already piling up? Quarterback injuries have me so confused on who to pick in GB-TEN and LAC-PIT this weekend. But the number of top receiving targets who have already been injured this season is crazy and not helping the offensive drought.

But hey, at least a 6-point favorite covered for the first time all season on Thursday night.

This Week’s Articles:

NFL 2024 Week 3 Predictions

The Jets looked very good on Thursday night. Before that game, favorites of 5.5+ points were 0-7-2 ATS this year. Let’s see if the big favorites can dominate this weekend.

Last week, I hedged on 6 games where I picked a different spread winner from the moneyline winner. That paid off as I was 6-0 ATS on those games. Not repeating that with this slate as I only did it twice, and that’s only because of an injury in one game.

I’m counting on the Browns to shit all over Daniel Jones. The Browns don’t have a takeaway yet this season, so let’s get some regression there.

I’m trusting Anthony Richardson to finally win a game he plays the majority of snaps in for the Colts. He’s 0-4 so far, but I’m banking on the Chicago offensive line being unable to give them a good running game against that poor run defense of the Colts.

Line keeps creeping to Minnesota, but I don’t care. Still trusting my Texans and Stroud this week.

Love the Saints to keep scoring a lot and I don’t think the Eagles keep up without A.J. Brown.

I really hope Justin Herbert can play in Pittsburgh, because I want to see what happens when a quarterback who can score points and actually put heat on Justin Fields to do anything in the fourth quarter. He’s had it easy these two games. But with Herbert on a high-ankle sprain, the Steelers might get a big break if he can’t move well. But Joe Alt is going to have his hands full with T.J. Watt. I’ll be watching this one closely.

Expecting Tampa Bay to make things miserable for Bo Nix again.

GB-TEN is the other annoying QB injury game this week. Is Jordan Love playing or not? I’m not exactly feeling a Malik Willis Revenge Game, but the Packers have been forcing turnovers, and Will Levis seems willing to try new creative ways to cough them up. I cautiously take the Packers here.

Going upset with Carolina, though really I think Andy Dalton’s passing overs and the game going over 40 (both teams score 20+) are the best bets there. Might be an actual passing fest between Dalton and Minshew as neither team can run. But look for Dalton to immediately improve the passing game after Bryce Young was benched. Not entirely sure why I’m taking them to win too but I do like +6.5 for the spread.

I don’t believe in Skylar Thompson, so it’s a chance for Mike Macdonald’s defense to eat up at home. Seahawks by 5+ I hope.

Not liking what I’m seeing out of Detroit so far, and that Arizona offense is fun as hell. Upset pick there but it should be a good game. Tight one in the 4Q. Possibly OT.

It’s not like we haven’t seen quarterbacks go into Dallas and light them up. This is on Lamar Jackson to play well. The season is almost teetering early here at 0-2. Something still feels off with the Dallas offense as they lost Tony Pollard and TE Jake Ferguson was injured in Week 1. Not much that’s reliable outside of CeeDee Lamb.

Is anyone not hurt in 49ers-Rams? Meh, Rams already look cooked with these injuries. Just give me the 49ers.

Preview link above for Chiefs-Falcons. Can be a good one. I think Mahomes throws a lot more this week without Pacheco.

Don’t like the way the Jaguars are playing this year. Bills seem to be pretty strong and can win in a variety of ways right now. More interested in the later game.

Did a preview on that one too in Cincy. I think a healthy Tee Higgins and Ja’Marr Chase should lead to Burrow’s best game this year against a terrible defense. But I’m still trusting the Commanders to cover that big of a spread. Shrink the game with long drives again. Avoid those pesky turnovers the Bengals are usually good at getting.

2024 NFL Stat Oddity: Week 2

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

The season where Derek Carr turned into 2007 Tom Brady and held off Sam Darnold and Baker Mayfield for the MVP nearly broke me.

I’m trying to keep the big picture in mind for the 2024 NFL season, but after an upset-heavy Sunday where a lot of offenses struggled again, I’m skeptical about what’s to come. This could be a season like 2021 where no one is truly great, and you end up with a Super Bowl between No. 4 seeds.

Though, it probably won’t be the Bengals vs. Rams again as both teams are 0-2 and not looking great. But even the Ravens are 0-2, easily the biggest surprise in that group as you had to think a home game with the Raiders was a given, right?

But nothing is a lock. In fact, the three biggest favorites by the point spread are 0-3 this season. Those were all favorites of 7.5 points or more, including the Bengals last week against New England. Teams favored by that much in Weeks 1-2 were 30-1 SU since 2018. The only other seasons in the 16-game era where three favorites lost this quickly were 1978 and 2003. Those seasons still finished with a traditional Super Bowl rematch (Steelers vs. Cowboys) and the Patriots were in another one (albeit against Jake Delhomme).

Get your Chiefs vs. Saints Super Bowl LIX futures in now? Eh, long way to go, but it was a wake-up call day for a lot of teams. Following 10 games in the early window was insane too. The NFL should really rethink that as the 3-game late slate is not good enough.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Bengals at Chiefs: Game of the Week

When Joe Burrow says the Bengals are built specifically to beat the Chiefs, I wonder what he means exactly. On the offensive side of the ball, I don’t really see it. At least not with the current makeup of the Bengals without Tyler Boyd, Joe Mixon, and with Tee Higgins injured.

But Sunday went against type for the Bengals as they used their tight ends the most they ever have in a game with Burrow, copying some elements of how the Ravens had success with Isaiah Likely in Week 1 using multiple tight ends. When Mike Gesicki (91) and Drew Sample (28) are more than tripling Ja’Marr Chase in (35) in receiving yards, something’s up.

It almost worked out too, but Burrow did not hold up his end of the bargain. Much like in the two AFC Championship Games these teams played, he had a bad turnover in the fourth quarter. But this time it was a strip-sack returned for a touchdown while the Bengals led 22-17. That was huge with the Chiefs struggling to stay ahead of the Bengals in this game.

One could argue the Bengals bring out the worst in the Kansas City offense. In this game, they were able to hold Patrick Mahomes to 151 passing yards, the first time he’s ever been under 166 yards in a game he completed. He only threw it 25 times, but they also got two interceptions, including a brilliant one-handed catch late in the third quarter. Throw in the obligatory fumble from the Chiefs, and the Bengals were up 3-0 in turnovers with the ball before Burrow’s massive fumble.

But if we can back up, why did the Bengals not go for two on a touchdown that made it 22-17 with minutes left in the third? They should have tried to make it 24-17. But Evan McPherson missed the extra point, and that set us down a path that ultimately led to the Chiefs escaping with a 26-25 win. Things would have been different at 24-17. The fumble would only have tied the game, and so would a late field goal by the Chiefs as overtime would have been a possibility.

Going for the extra point was the first mistake, Burrow’s fumble was the second, and the third came on the next drive when Chase lost his cool and picked up a 15-yard flag from the refs. Instead of a 3rd-and-7, the Bengals faced a 3rd-and-22. They were able to salvage that drive for a field goal attempt, and McPherson redeemed himself with a 53-yard field goal to give the Bengals a 25-23 lead.

The Chiefs have a real problem right now with rookie left tackle Kingsley Suamataia being outmatched by an edge rusher on par with Trey Hendrickson. After Mahomes was sacked, the rookie tackle was also flagged for a hold that negated a 41-yard play to Travis Kelce, who only finished the game with a 5-yard swing catch.

Running out the final 6:57 would have been tough, but the Bengals were doing well until Burrow took another third-down sack and the team had to punt. The Chiefs had 2:35 to get a field goal, but it really felt like they came out of the two-minute warning with a lazy approach as if they weren’t down and this was really important.

A 1-yard run, a nonchalant throwaway, and just like that it was 3rd-and-9 where pressure forced a short throw to bring up 4th-and-6. Then the game got a little goofy. Mahomes made what should have been another game-winning type of play, finding Rashee Rice for 21 yards to the Cincinnati 34. Bang, there’s field goal range in the final 50 seconds with the Bengals down to one timeout.

But a lineman (not Kingsley) was flagged for illegal hands to the face, and it’s hard to say the call was anything but correct. Shades of 2023, the Chiefs were shooting themselves in the foot and had to convert a 4th-and-16. Mahomes threw deep for Rice, but it bounced incomplete off the defensive back’s head only for a flag to come in for pass interference on Daijahn Anthony, a 7th-round rookie who played 2 defensive snaps last week, and somehow he found himself defending the Chiefs’ best receiver on 4th-and-ballgame.

You’ve seen it, I’m sure. Was it not textbook pass interference?

You might get some leeway on defense in a Hail Mary situation, but this was not a Hail Mary throw. It was to a spot where Rice or Anthony could catch it, and Anthony clearly arrived early and tried to play the ball through the receiver by making contact high and to the head. I think they actually might let that one go if he jumped straight up with Rice, but he leaned into him too much and that’s a penalty.

Every little penalty in a Chiefs game turns into this big controversy now, but I see two penalties on crucial fourth-down plays, and both were correct. Had the first one not been called, the Chiefs are running the ball a couple of times and kicking a field goal from the same distance or even shorter than they ultimately did. You can’t just harp on the 4th-and-16 and ignore that the Bengals were fortunate they got a 4th-and-6 call that negated a conversion.

The Chiefs didn’t make it any easier on Harrison Butker, but from 51 yards out, he was money right down the middle again for the 26-25 escape to drop the Bengals to 0-2.

The prospects of the 2024 Chiefs fielding their strongest team yet are not looking great. They’re 2-0 against arguably two of their main AFC rivals, but is that saying a lot right now? New England beat Cincy and the Raiders just beat the Ravens.

I don’t doubt the Chiefs won’t be the toughest out for anyone in January, but you combine a Hollywood Brown injury that will keep him out of the regular season with this very unproductive Kelce start and add in a Pacheco injury at the end of this game, and things aren’t looking the greatest.

But I think if you’re just being honest as a Chiefs fan, you don’t want to see this Cincinnati team again this season. They just have that way of bringing out the worst with this offense.

Raiders at Ravens: Upset of the Year

In Week 3 last season, the Ravens lost 22-19 at home in overtime as a 7.5-point favorite against Gardner Minshew and the Colts. This year in Week 2, they lost 26-23 at home as an 8.5-point home favorite against Minshew and the Raiders. It’s the worst spread loss for the Ravens in the regular season in the Lamar Jackson era.

What is going on in Baltimore? They usually save these disappointments for January, but Justin Tucker is missing 50-yard field goals while the rest of the league crushes them, Derrick Henry struggled to get going for a long time Sunday, and once again Minshew led the game-winning drive Jackson couldn’t. Remember, Jackson didn’t have a single game-winning drive last year despite the team’s 13 wins in his MVP season.

This game was too close for comfort for a long time, but it sure looked like the Ravens had it in the bag when Henry scored to make it 23-13 with 12:11 left. But the Raiders got a field goal, Henry was called for a false start to knock the offense out of a 3rd-and-1 on a three-and-out, and the Raiders were bailed out on a 3rd-and-17 incompletion with a defensive pass interference penalty in the end zone.

We looked at the Kansas City DPI, so here’s the Baltimore one:

I don’t like the call, but I can kind of see the optics for why Davante Adams was able to sell it for a penalty. I see Stephens initiate the contact with his left hand on Adams, but they were both grabbing and fighting each other into the end zone. But at the last moment, Adams positions himself to dive for the ball while Stephens takes a different angle and bats at it. Maybe if did more to let Adams go to try going for the pick, they would have let it go.

But that is definitely a tough call. Adams caught a touchdown on the next snap and the game was tied with 3:54 left. Maxx Crosby immediately sacked Jackson to blow up another drive for a 3-and-out. Just a terrible drive for the Ravens there.

The special teams are usually great, but the Ravens hurt themselves with a 24-yard punt, so Minshew got to start at the Baltimore 43. The drive moved 23 yards and Daniel Carlson was good on a 38-yard field goal to take a 26-23 lead with 27 seconds left.

You still have a chance with Tucker’s leg despite recent misses, but the Ravens were out of timeouts. With one snap left and 59 yards away, I guess Lamar thought his best shot was to run for it and lateral, but I’m not sure why he didn’t keep going down the left sideline before starting that part of it.

The Raiders rushed for just 27 yards in this game while Baltimore had 151 thanks to that last play being their longest in the game. But this makes the Raiders the only NFL team since 1970 to win as an 8.5-point underdog while rushing for less than 30 yards and getting outrushed by over 115 yards.

Just a brutal loss for the Ravens (0-2). Was the loss of defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald to Seattle even bigger than expected? They were still blowing a handful of multi-score leads under Macdonald in 2022 as well, so maybe 2023 was the outlier here.

It’s not getting any easier too. The Ravens are in Dallas before hosting Buffalo the next two weeks. There’s at least precedent for them losing at home by a field goal to Minshew and losing to Mahomes, but they have to start showing more than they have so far in 2024.

Saints at Cowboys: Did Carr Absorb Brady’s Powers Before the Game?

Well, I was right about Derek Carr throwing an interception in Dallas. But that was only after he hung 41 points as the Saints opened with six straight touchdown drives, looking like some mixture of the 1999 Rams, 2007 Patriots, and the 2023 Packers team that went into Jerry’s World in January and embarrassed Dallas.

I liked the Saints to make the playoffs and possibly win the NFC South this year, but where the hell did all of this come from? I guess maybe beating up those South teams wasn’t meaningless as they only just added to this figure of dominance from last week and late in 2023:

The 2023-24 Saints join the 1941 Bears, 1968 Browns, 2007 Patriots, and 2018 Saints as the only teams in NFL history to score at least 44 points in three straight games. That’s historic company for a team no one was expecting this from. Alvin Kamara is out there playing like he’s 1999 Marshall Faulk. Carr’s 96.2 QBR leads the league and he’s treating Rashid Shaheed like he’s his Randy Moss.

But in one of the most shocking stats I’ve ever heard, Derek Carr started this season with 15 straight scoring drives.

How did he do that? That’s 9 straight scores against Carolina, then he was benched for the backup on the final two drives (both punts) with the game in hand, then he led 6 straight touchdowns in Dallas to get to 15.

I’m not sure if any quarterback has done that before even if you search through prime Peyton, Brady, Brees, Rodgers, or Mahomes. Even when Josh Allen reached some offensive perfection in the 2021 playoffs by going 7-for-7 on touchdown drives against New England, and best you can stretch that out to 10 straight scoring drives by including the regular season finale and the next playoff game in Kansas City. He started that one with a punt on his second drive, so even him playing his best didn’t come close to 15 straight scores.

The quarterback being pulled for the score is certainly a strong factor for why this streak can even exist. But I honestly don’t know if you can find another streak like this for a quarterback in the NFL.

And it’s Derek Carr who did it? Insane. Carr only threw 16 passes in Dallas but they went for 243 yards. It was an onslaught of big passing plays and a consistent ground game. The Cowboys never had much of a shot to keep up as Dak Prescott threw for 293 yards, a touchdown, and 2 picks. The first pick was the swing moment just before halftime when the Cowboys were down 28-13 and just converted a 3rd-and-10. The pick felt a little similar to the pick-six he threw in January to Green Bay to make it 27-0.

But I still never would have believed the Saints had this type of performance in them. When we’re asking for a team to step up this year and show it’s great now, could this really be the team that does it? Is new offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak a nepotism hire that’s worth its weight in gold?

Very curious to see where this goes as the Sains have been blowing teams out for longer than two weeks. No one cared late in 2023 because they were missing the playoffs. They should have everyone’s attention now.

49ers at Vikings: They Haven’t Won in Minnesota Since WHEN?

I couldn’t believe this stat when I heard it, but the 49ers haven’t won in Minnesota since December 1992, or a month after Bill Clinton won his first presidential election. The 49ers were on an 0-7 streak in Minnesota.

Make it 0-8 now. I knew they lost in Minnesota last season on a Monday night, and I chalked that up to injuries (Christian McCaffrey), a fluky touchdown to Jordan Addison before the half, and Purdy suffering a concussion late in the game before he threw some bone-headed picks. I liked the 49ers, who were without CMC again, to roll with Jordan Mason and overcome that loss last year.

Welp, I was wrong. They let Sam Darnold hit Justin Jefferson for a 97-yard touchdown that could go down as the longest play from scrimmage in this entire season. The 49ers also had a punt blocked, turned it over on downs twice, and Brock Purdy coughed up the ball on a drive that should have led to a 27-7 lead for the Vikings in the fourth quarter, but Aaron Jones fumbled on his way to the goal line to keep some hope alive in a 20-7 game.

But there was no comeback. Despite a 99-yard touchdown drive after the Jones fumble, the vaunted San Francisco defense couldn’t get Darnold off the field in several crucial third-down chances with Jefferson sidelined with an injury. Addison was already out before the game, and the Vikings haven’t even had tight end T.J. Hockenson available yet in these games. They could actually get better.

But their 6:46 drive for a field goal was a dagger as the Vikings were back up 23-14 with just 3:30 left. The 49ers added a field goal with 1:12 left to make it 23-17, but they couldn’t get the ball back after the onside kick failed.

I guess Brian Flores’ scheme is the magic weapon against the 49ers (without CMC)? Mason still rushed for 100 yards. Purdy still threw for 319, but it was the 6 sacks and the timely stops that frustrated the 49ers the entire game.

Buccaneers at Lions: Something’s Missing with Detroit

This spread (Lions -7.5) felt too high even if Detroit technically covered it twice last year against Tampa Bay. But the Buccaneers looked great last week, and Baker Mayfield has been playing very well. I wasn’t that impressed with Detroit last week in the overtime win over a battered Rams team, and sure enough, they were worse in this game.

Something just feels off with Detroit right now. Jameson Williams had a 50-yard catch again and looks better than Josh Reynolds ever did, so it’s not the lack of a WR2 or anything. Maybe it ‘s a slow start for tight end Sam LaPorta (13 yards) or how the running game hasn’t really been that great outside of the overtime drive last week.

But it always looks worse when Jared Goff is throwing his Jared Goof picks, and that happened a couple of times in this one. Even though the defense, led by an incredible effort from Aidan Hutchinson (4.5 sacks) got to Mayfield 5 times, they still gave up a rushing touchdown to Mayfield late in the third quarter to trail 20-16.

That still left Goff with four opportunities to get the go-ahead touchdown in the fourth quarter, and despite each drive crossing deep into Tampa territory, the Lions went scoreless. Goff had a bad pick and later turned it over on downs twice despite the defense continuing to get him the ball back.

It was a big missed opportunity in a winnable game.

Bears at Texans: Not Quite My MVP’s Night

After a Sunday filled with contenders disappointing, I was hoping to see the Texans put on a show Sunday night in an easy win over Chicago. Instead, they scored 19 points on 12 drives, blew the spread, and had to come up with a last-second stop of rookie Caleb Williams, who was under duress all night from the pass rush.

At least the pass rush looked good with 7 sacks and plenty of pressures. But the Texans went from scoring 13 points on three drives to struggling the rest of the game. It looks like the huge Joe Mixon game in Week 1 was more about playing the Colts, a lousy run defense, than expecting any dominance out of the Houston running game this year. Mixon finished with 9 carries for 25 yards in this one as he was banged up.

But Stroud was solid, and that connection with Nico Collins (135 yards) is dominant. There is no denying who the WR1 in Houston is this year.

But I would have liked to see the Texans win in more convincing fashion against a Chicago team that still clearly has flaws with the offensive line, coaching, and Wiliams’ inexperience. He was better than he was in Week 1 at least.

Jets at Titans: Big Dick vs. Big Dick Energy

I guess the Jets can survive a team like Tennessee with this kind of effort, but they still have a lot of work to do to get up to the elite class. Aaron Rodgers might be good for one highlight-reel touchdown a week in this offense, but the highlight largely belonged to Breece Hall for a brilliant 26-yard touchdown that made him look like a wideout. Keep in mind that was on a drive to open the half that was nearly stopped on a three-and-out before a roughing penalty on the Titans negated a 3rd-and-15 stop.

The Titans had a lot of costly mistakes again in falling to 0-2. Will Levis again tried to do too much and had multiple turnovers, and they also had a punt blocked.

But to break a 17-17 tie in the fourth quarter, Rodgers led a 74-yard touchdown drive with 4:31 left. When Levis had to answer, his legs got them within 8 yards, but then things stalled out with a big sack, and Levis threw incomplete on 4th-and-14 to end the game.

The game did at least end a 7-game streak where Rodgers did not throw multiple touchdown passes, a streak that went back to November 2022.

Colts at Packers: Coaching Matters

A good example of how coaching matters. The Packers didn’t have Jordan Love, and their backup Malik Willis has failed to throw for 100 yards in each of his three NFL starts. But Matt LaFleur had a run-heavy gameplan as the Packers rolled up 261 yards on the ground with most of that coming before halftime as Josh Jacobs (151 yards) and company were outstanding. Well, except for that horrible fumble by Jacobs at the 1-yard line as he carried the ball like a loaf of bread.

But the Packers managed the game beautifully without Love. Willis finished 12-of-14 for 122 yards and a touchdown pass while rushing for 41 yards.

At this point, you have to wonder if Shane Steichen should be employing a similar approach with the raw Anthony Richardson, who threw 34 times but was picked off three times, including a Hail Mary to end things in the 16-10 loss. Meanwhile, Jonathan Taylor rushed for 103 yards but only had 12 carries. The Packers had long drives early while the Colts struggled to get into any rhythm.

The Colts are now 0-4 in games where Richardson plays most of the snaps. Not great.

Browns at Jaguars: The Lawrence Splits Continue

I said I was hedging my Week 2 picks with six games where I picked a spread winner different from the moneyline winner. I ended up going 5-0 ATS on those games (Falcons-Eagles pending) and 2-3 SU, so it wasn’t a bad strategy. Just needed a little more courage to pick the Browns and Packers outright to win.

But the reasons I liked the Browns in this one? They beat the Jaguars last year and I feel the defense has the right pieces to force Trevor Lawrence into a rough game, especially after discovering these stats where he basically can’t win a game if he doesn’t complete over 60% of his passes.

Sure enough, he was 14-of-30 in this game, so he was under 50% in the 18-13 loss. It was a rough game that seemingly never wanted to end as the Jaguars tried to make a comeback attempt late. They even had a 2-yard go-ahead touchdown with half a quarter left that was taken away for an illegal shift. They settled for a field goal to make it 16-13, Lawrence couldn’t get out of his end zone with the ball to start the next possession, and that sacked produced a safety with 1:44 left.

But the Browns were not able to run out the clock, and a Deshaun Watson incompletion on third down actually saved Lawrence a solid 40 seconds to make this 18-13 comeback plausible with 1:27 left.

He still had to go 90 yards, but after reaching the Cleveland 28, Lawrence’s Hail Mary was knocked away to end the game and drop the Jaguars to a disappointing 0-2 after both games were winnable.

Lawrence is now 2-21 when he doesn’t complete at least 60% of his passes. Daniel Jones is in the same boat and is now 1-17 when he doesn’t too, the only record that’s worse among the 179 quarterbacks since 1970 with at least 50 games of experience.

This might be how I pick Jacksonville games the rest of the year. Determining if Lawrence is going to complete a high rate or not. Right now, the connection to Christian Kirk is completely broken, and it didn’t help that tight end Evan Engram was injured in warm-ups and missed this game.

Giants at Commanders: OnlyFGs

Jayden Daniels’ first game-winning drive was a historic NFL game. I was skeptical of how Daniels would fare in a Kliff Kingsbury offense, but we have two games of evidence that he has drive engineering skills that can be very intriguing once he gets better at throwing the ball, especially to his wide receivers.

But after only getting the ball 8 times last week in Tampa Bay, each team only had the ball 7 times in this game. The Commanders just happened to turn all 7 of their possessions into field goals by Austin Seibert. That speaks poorly for their red-zone ability, but 3.00 Pts/Dr is still elite.

They took a knee before the half too, but this is really a perfect game if the goal was to score all field goals, and I don’t think there’s another like it in NFL history. If you search for games since 1940 where a team had no punts and no turnovers, only one game comes up showing a team that scored fewer than 26 points, and I’m thinking that’s just an error that they’re missing data for punts or turnovers or something’s off.

Only three teams show up for a game with 0 punts, 0 turnovers, and 5 field goal attempts. Interestingly enough, the Giants scored three touchdowns in this game and still lost because they only scored 18 points. Their kicker (Graham Gano) was injured before the game, made it worse on the opening kickoff, which was a 98-yard return by Austin Ekeler negated by penalty, and the backup missed an extra point. So, the Giants tried to go for two twice and failed both times.

Just an extremely unique way to get to a 21-18 score as both offenses were moving the ball quite well. Malik Nabers also looked the part of a No. 1 wideout with 10 catches for 127 yards and his first touchdown. But he’ll regret not hauling in that last target that he had a diving attempt for on 4th-and-4 at the Washington 22 with 2:09 left.

Instead, the Commanders took over in a tied game and Daniels hit his longest pass play for 34 yards to Noah Brown to set up the final, winning field goal with no time left. All seven field goals were from within 45 yards, and 6-of-7 were from within 33 yards.

You probably won’t see another one like this, but it does point to some interesting ways Daniels can operate in this offense with short passes and timely scrambles/designed runs. He just needs to stay healthy.

Steelers at Broncos: Flag Fest

It’s hard to judge the Pittsburgh offense right now as it seems like every highlight-worthy play gets called back by penalty, and sometimes it’s not even a good call. The Steelers only scored 13 points in Denver, but that was enough to outlast a supposed offensive genius in Sean Payton, who relied on some tricks to get Bo Nix to complete some passes down the field. But Nix wasn’t as painfully inefficient as he was last week in his debut. He’s just struggling on a team that frankly is lousy, and they have no real running game to support him with.

But it was a tough game to watch with 19 accepted penalties for 202 yards between the teams. The Steelers punted 8 times while the only turnover was a pick in the end zone by Nix before he added a second on a last-ditch desperation throw.

The Steelers reportedly gave Russell Wilson a game ball in the revenge game his calf wouldn’t let him play. I wonder what Tomlin is thinking at this point as they are not scoring enough points to beat any decent team, but Fields also isn’t screwing up egregiously yet to bench him for Wilson, a wild card.

But celebrating a 2-0 start when you’re averaging 15.5 points per game is a weird thing to do. They still have a lot of the offensive stink they’ve had since December 2020.

Chargers at Panthers: Stress-Free 2-0 Chargers

It almost happened last week, and it did happen Sunday when J.K. Dobbins had more rushing yards (131) than Justin Herbert had passing yards (130). But Herbert threw for two touchdowns to Quentin Johnston, who held on this time, and it was a stress-free 26-3 win over a pathetic Carolina team. Herbert is owed some layups after what he endured his first four seasons.

But it’s shocking that the Panthers actually look worse in every way this year under coach Dave Canales. Bryce Young is daring to be the worst quarterback drafted No. 1 overall since JaMarcus Russell, and maybe the only thing stopping me from calling him the biggest bust is that he’s a tiny guy with a relatively small contract.

But Young flat-out stinks as he managed to complete 18-of-26 passes for just 84 yards. Young is the only quarterback in NFL history to complete at least 18 passes in a game without throwing for 100 yards.

I didn’t think there was anything Canales could do to get himself fired like Frank Reich did 11 games into the 2023 season, but I might have to rethink that. This team is still the worst in the NFL and there has been nothing they could even hang their hat on from either game so far.

Seahawks at Patriots: Better Played Than Expected

You might have imagined a rough offensive game with this one being a “body clock” game for Seattle, which traveled without the services of Kenneth Walker. But the offenses were actually solid in doing what they do best.

The Patriots didn’t ask Jacoby Brissett to throw much, but they found creative ways to get the ball to tight end Hunter Henry for 109 yards. That supported a running game that piled up 185 yards.

But when it came time to pick up a 3rd-and-1 in overtime, Rhamondre Stevenson was stopped and the Patriots decided to punt from their 39. They never saw the ball again, but that is a tough call to go for it as the game is about to be over with a field goal inside the 40 if you don’t get it. Tough spot to come up short after another good rushing effort.

Meanwhile, the Seahawks couldn’t run the ball without Walker, gaining 38 yards on 14 carries with his replacement (Charbonnet). But props to Geno Smith for a big-time passing game (327 yards) without any turnovers.

The Seahawks blocked a 48-yard field goal with 3:54 left that would have made them have to score a touchdown, so add that to the list of “shit that Tom Brady never had to worry about in New England for two decades.”

That allowed the Seahawks to tie with a field goal to force overtime, and the defense’s impressive stop got them the ball back deep in their own end. Geno delivered on the game-winning drive, and the Seahawks paid it off with a 31-yard field goal to win 23-20 in overtime.

The Seahawks are 2-0, and with Tua Tagovailoa probably being out for Miami in Week 3, they have a real shot to go 3-0 with this schedule opportunity.

Rams at Cardinals: Did You Really Doubt Marvin Harrison Jr.?

It’s funny how we had one week of panic over Marvin Harrison Jr. because he caught one ball for 4 yards last week, and apparently the GPS data said he never ran faster than 16 miles per hour.

Well, we can put that one to rest after he caught 4 balls for 130 yards and two touchdowns in the game’s first 12 minutes. He didn’t add to those numbers, but the team also didn’t need him to as they blasted a battered Rams team 41-10 in a game that was expected to be much tighter. Sean McVay usually is on the right end of these blowouts, but this time it was all about the weapons the Cardinals have (MHJ, Trey McBride, James Conner) and the dwindling options for the Rams after losing Cooper Kupp in the game. They already lost Puka Nacua in Week 1.

Throw in Stafford getting sacked 5 times behind a battered line, and this has the potential to turn into 2022 much quicker than any wild card season for the Rams. It’s getting late early.

Next week: Patriots-Jets on Thursday? I’ll be working on the computer. Texans-Vikings suddenly a lot more interesting than it has any business being. Eagles-Saints could be good, or the Saints could roll yet another team if Jalen Hurts is really as mistake prone this year as he looked in Brazil. Malik Willis Revenge Game in Tennessee, or does Jordan Love already come back? Chargering comes to Pittsburgh, or does it? Steelers might actually need to score more than one touchdown in that game. Definitely a lot of pressure in Cowboys-Ravens game as one will be 0-3 or 1-2 after it. So many amusing ways that one could go. Chiefs should be sharper in Atlanta on Sunday night. A somewhat bland MNF doubleheader (Jags-Bills, Commanders-Bengals), but let’s see if Jayden Daniels can drop Cincy to 0-3 and if the Bills can drop the Jags to 0-3.

NFL 2024 Predictions Week 2: Run the Damn Ball (?) Edition

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

I’m trying to keep my patience with these passing offenses, but it’s still wild to see NFL offenses averaging 187.6 passing yards per game through 17 games to start 2024. That low level hasn’t been seen since 1992.

Not doing much for my MOGA (Make Offense Great Again) theme for the season. Hopefully we won’t add potentially losing a starting quarterback each week too. It was Jordan Love last week, and then it was Tua Tagovailoa with another concussion on Thursday night. Who knows what the future holds there.

Aaron Rodgers and Kirk Cousins looking a bit rusty last week. Low bar for the rookies who played. Deshaun Watson and Daniel Jones are apparently still trash. Bryce Young and Will Levis not giving much hope in Week 1. Justin Fields and Jacoby Brissett won games, but they did very little to earn them, and they still feel like placeholders for Russell Wilson and Drake Maye, who both may not even play well this year.

It’s setting up for someone like Baker Mayfield to lead the league in passing yards, or for Derek Carr to take a crack at QBR lead like a 2017 Carson Wentz/Case Keenum situation. But they only played the Commanders and Panthers last week. Bigger tests this week.

But you really have to start wondering if running the ball is making a big comeback. The defenses are not falling for a lot of these dink-and-dunk passing games, and there’s a lack of big plays down the field with more defenses playing their safeties deep.

It’s not necessarily a bad thing, but can’t you at least let me reasonably assume a quarterback can throw for over 200 yards? We haven’t seen that so far this season, but it is early.

This Week’s Articles:

2024 NFL Quarterback Rankings Week 2: My new Wednesday column at 365Scores. I think I’ll have a good time with this one now that I got an NFL+ subscription and will be using more stats there. I’m thinking Stat Oddity will focus less on QBs this year so I can save that material for the weekly QB rankings.

Scott’s Seven NFL Picks Week 2: Again, more emphasis on running the ball. I also call Derek Carr’s bluff in Dallas, pick Ja’Marr Chase to put up stats in a loss, and for Sam Darnold to throw multiple picks. Also, you can now get under 43.5 instead of 42.5 for Giants-Commanders, so that’s better than what the odds I had to write about Thursday night.

NFL Week 2 Predictions

Excuse me for trying something different Thursday night with picking Miami in a 3-point game. I still had Buffalo winning the AFC East and Miami missing the playoffs before the season. But I wrote Friday about why I think Tua Tagovailoa should retire after a fourth concussion since 2022. It’s obviously 100% his decision and it’s hard to expect any 26-year-old athlete to just hang them up, but the pattern I see is a quarterback who can’t protect himself from these hits, and each one makes you more likely for more. He’s in a bad spot, and let’s not forget Miami is largely to blame for putting him back out there in that Buffalo game in 2022 and having him on the field in Cincinnati four days later.

We know what Week 2 means. Do we believe last week or double down on our preseason priors about these teams? I ended up hedging on 6 games by picking a different spread and ML winner.

The Saints and Cowboys have been blowing teams out, but now they meet in what could be one of Week 2’s best games. However, I’m calling the Saints’ bluff that they’re a paper tiger who has beaten up 4 NFC South teams over their last six games, and I’m trusting the Cowboys to win that one by a full touchdown at least. Prove me wrong for a change, Derek Carr.

Baker Mayfield is leading one of the few passing offenses I feel like I can trust right now, and the Detroit defense stays giving up huge passing numbers. Expecting good offense in that one and I think the spread is a little too high for the Lions, who weren’t great against a banged-up Rams team.

I’m hedging on Cleveland +3 as I think the world is cruel and will somehow reward Deshaun Watson when his ass shouldn’t even be on the field. But from my Trevor Lawrence research, I think the Browns have a defense that can hold him under 60% completions and take away the short game, which is effectively his only path to victory in the NFL so far. Wild stuff:

49ers lost in Minnesota last year without CMC if I recall, and this could be a trap game too after looking good Monday night. But I just refuse to believe in these Vikings and Darnold yet.

Got the Harbaugh brothers covering with much more trust in John as the Raiders looked bad last week. Riding King Henry to hopefully some big wins this week.

The Seahawks-Patriots game might as well be called Trap 2. One of those teams is starting 2-0 with a defensive rookie coach, and I’m not sure I’d dare bet any significant money on that one. Maybe a Geno INT if Walker is banged up and they don’t have a running game that’s effective? Are the Patriots still reliable for that without Belichick? We’ll find out.

IND-GB is another betting nightmare with Malik Willis possibly (probably?) starting the game. But I look at what Joe Mixon did last week against the Colts and that’s why I’m riding Josh Jacobs in Week 2. Trusting LaFleur’s experience here as they might win that one outright.

Jets have some real problems if they’re getting shredded by Will Levis this week. Should be a bounce-back game.

I’m going Washington over the Giants. Just think Daniel Jones won’t take advantage of that poor defense enough, and Washington had some decent per drive numbers last week in Tampa. But not expecting much from that game.

Cardinals could absolutely beat the Rams with a banged up OL and no Puka Nacua. I just trust McVay and Stafford against that particular opponent.

Steelers-Broncos is absolutely another game you should be careful about putting big money on. Without question a spot for a Tomlin disappointment after winning as a road underdog last week in Atlanta without scoring a touchdown. T.J. Watt is his saving grace here as he could wreck that matchup and get to Bo Nix often. The Steelers should win this game against a rookie quarterback prone to mistakes, but we’ve seen how this one has played out before. Couldn’t even beat rookie Bailey Zappe at home last year, and you know I am not a fan of Justin Fields’ play. He coughed up the ball to give the Broncos a win last year after shredding them for a half.

I’m mostly just mad I’m in the small part of the country who will get Steelers-Broncos on CBS instead of the game I actually want to focus on live, Bengals-Chiefs. It would be typical NFL for the Bengals to lose to the Patriots at home as the biggest spread favorite in Week 1 before going on the road and knocking off the champs. I don’t think it should happen without Tee Higgins available, or at least that’s what it sounds like his status is for Sunday. It would be great to see the Chiefs blow this team out with how much talking they do as Ja’Marr Chase just said Cincy is still the AFC team to beat. But the Chiefs struggle blowing anyone out, so I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s another 3 or 4-point game late. But I’m still backing the Chiefs to win and drop the Bengals to 0-2. However, that is a good motivating factor to avoid that bad of a start, and crazier things have happened than this.

I repeat, the Bengals just lost 16-10 at home to the Patriots last week.

Don’t have huge expectations for SNF and MNF, but can they go any worse than Thursday night in Miami? I get why the NFL would schedule Bears-Texans this early to showcase two young QBs, but maybe save it for Week 4 or 5 after Caleb Williams gets some experience? Rough start last week despite the Rex Grossman-caliber win. I fully expect Houston to shine and look like a contender. As for Monday night, the Falcons and Kirk Cousins just looked bad to me last week. We’ll see what they can do in Philly, which also had some sloppy play in Brazil but still got the win.

NFL Stat Oddity: Week 1

~ Scott ~ 1 Comment

My 2024 NFL season predictions featured “Making Offense Great Again” (MOGA) as the central theme to this season. Things got off to a solid start on Thursday and Friday night (bad field in Brazil withstanding), but Sunday was a kick in the nuts.

Most quarterbacks did not pass for over 200 yards, and we still might have Malik Willis to (not) look forward to with Green Bay next week after Jordan Love’s MCL injury.

I’m getting a late start on this, and I may do a story on it early this week, so I don’t want to get into all the details here. But the offensive revolution might be on hold again unless we let the Saints play the Panthers every week.

So far, 9-of-15 games featured a comeback opportunity, which is very normal. But it’s not so normal to only get one game with a true fourth-quarter lead change from an offense with time left in an entire week of games. It’s not like I expect another to come from Jets-49ers tomorrow night, but we’ll see.

Overall, I enjoyed Week 1 of the 2024 NFL season. The prime-time games (mostly) delivered, which can make up for a rough Sunday afternoon.

Rams at Lions: Game of the Day

Our first overtime game of 2024 was not a classic, but it was a solid playoff rematch from last year with Matthew Stafford falling to 0-2 against his former team in Detroit.

This game had a lot of injuries as Puka Nacua didn’t play the second half, and the offensive line was banged up badly for the Rams. Not much room for Kyren Williams, who never broke a run longer than 9 yards. Cooper Kupp ended up with 14 catches on 21 targets to make up for the loss of Nacua, and it almost was enough for the night.

Jameson Williams had his breakout game for the Lions with 121 yards and a touchdown. But I’m going to say it’s not ideal when Amon-Ra St. Brown only has 3 catches for 13 yards, one of the least productive games of his career. Jared Goff was up and down, and he got away with a dropped interception in the fourth quarter.

It was a rough game, but credit to the Rams for coming back from a double-digit deficit to taking a late 20-17 lead on a Kupp touchdown. But with a chance to run out the clock the way the Lions did to them in the playoffs, the Rams failed. Goff got his second chance, and he didn’t waste it. The Lions settled for overtime with a 32-yard field goal, but that was the right call as we know Dan Campbell loves a fourth down attempt.

After the way Super Bowl 58 ended, you kind of long for the strategy and system there to return, but we’re stuck with the old modified format. Sure enough, the Lions turned into the most dominant rushing team in the world all of a sudden and ran it right down the Rams’ throat despite little success earlier in the game. The Lions had 7 carries for 60 yards on the 70-yard drive in overtime, finishing things off with a 1-yard touchdown run by David Montgomery to win it 26-20, which means they even covered the spread (Lions -4.5).

Tough loss for an undermanned Rams team that was right there again. But with Jordan Love injured in Green Bay, the Lions look to be in good shape relative to the rest of the NFC North right now.

Patriots at Bengals: Upset of the Week

I should have known better that this game was trouble when it had the biggest spread (Bengals by 8+) of Week 1 as the Bengals simply shit the bed to start the season more often than not. Blame Zac Taylor, blame Joe Burrow, but they keep doing this.

At some point, you have to acknowledge the facts. I don’t want to hear that Tee Higgins was out, or that they lost Tyler Boyd and Joe Mixon in the offseason. What happened to “watch out for Iosivas” this season? I don’t even want to hear that Ja’Marr Chase had food poisoning this weekend. Chase played and he caught all 6 targets for 62 yards.

The real question should be why not more targets? We saw what Matthew Stafford, a real gamer, did on Sunday night with an absurdly injured offensive line, missing his tight end (Tyler Higbee), and Puka Nacua left with an injury suffered in the first half. He targeted Cooper Kupp 21 times and did what he could.

If Burrow is as good as people say he is, then he needs to overcome some of these shortcomings more often. This was another poor, lifeless Week 1 performance from the offense, which had 224 yards and 13 first downs.

Now there weren’t many possessions in this game, and Tanner Hudson blew points with a fumble inside the 3-yard line, which sounds like old-school New England defense to me.

The Patriots grinded things out on the ground with Rhamondre Stevenson rushing 25 times for 120 yards. Jacoby Brissett only passe for 121 yards, but he didn’t have turnovers and he only took a single sack. It was just enough

But even when the Bengals got the ball back in a 16-10 game with 3:04 left at their own 10, that was a great setup for a heroic Burrow drive. Instead, it was a three-and-out, and despite having four clock stoppages, the defense couldn’t get the ball back. The Patriots ran out the clock.

But you have to do better than a 3-and-out that deep in that spot. Just terrible, and now we’ll see if they can work their magic against the Chiefs next week to avoid starting 0-2.

Panthers at Saints: Rout of the Week

Statistically, the Saints were one of the most dominant teams on the scoreboard late in the 2023 season, and that’s a good trait for a team to make the playoffs the following year. I’m not taking any victory lap yet after they smashed the god damn Carolina Panthers, but on a Sunday where most NFL teams didn’t look great, the Saints’ utter dominance in every facet was impressive.

Remember, the Panthers were supposed to be improved this year with a new coach (Dave Canales), new weapons, and Bryce Young no longer being a rookie. But wow, Young may be heading down the path of all-time bust if this continues.

The Saints scored 17 points before Young even completed a pass. That’s hard to do. That also made it nearly impossible for him to succeed in this game, but he never settled in and the Saints continued blowing the Panthers out until it was 47-10.

Thankfully, we’ll see the Saints play in Dallas next week, so there’s a great chance to see where this team really is. As for Carolina, yikes, this is about the worst way to start after a 2-15 season where you never took a snap with a fourth-quarter lead.

Cowboys at Browns: The Only Way to Make Deshaun Watson Worse Is to Give Him Tom Brady’s Voice

Here’s what the Cowboys-Browns game featured:

  • Dak Prescott, the highest-paid quarterback in NFL history at $60 million per season after finally getting his extension Sunday morning despite never reaching the NFC Championship Game.
  • Deshaun Watson, who made the largest $230 million theft in NFL history when he fleeced the Browns in a 2022 trade for a fully-guaranteed contract despite more than two dozens accusations of sexual misconduct.
  • Tom Brady, the highest-paid broadcaster in NFL history at $37.5 million, more than double the next closest person despite zero experience in the broadcasting booth.

Is it any surprise the game turned out to be a piece of shit?

Prescott had one of his most forgettable games in the Mike McCarthy era. After a good start, his special teams basically put up the last 19 points with a punt return touchdown and four field goal drives that covered a whopping 42 yards between them.

And he was still easily the best quarterback on the field. The only way you could have made Watson worse was if you gave him Tom Brady’s voice. But I’m not going to get into why I think Brady has the completely wrong voice for this job that he stole from a more deserving Greg Olsen.

But Watson again looked terrible, and while you can respect a good Dallas front, the sack merchant was ever present with multiple turnovers and an inability to sustain offense. Even worse, Watson’s arm just looked shot. I don’t know how Kevin Stefanski doesn’t just bench him and go with Jameis Winston, but this continues to be the worst trade in NFL history and the biggest sunk cost you’ll ever see.

Ezekiel Elliott looked youthful and strong compared to washed-up Watson. It’s a miracle the Cowboys were ever a 2.5-point underdog in this one.

Jaguars at Dolphins: The One Where Tyreek Got Arrested First

You can’t make this stuff up. Tyreek Hill went from nearly going downtown with police officers, under arrest for a verbal altercation after a traffic violation, to catching the longest touchdown reception (80 yards) of his NFL career to spark a comeback win by Miami.

The Dolphins were very sluggish, down 14-0 to the Jaguars, before Hill took off for the end zone and even recreated the handcuffing incident he had in the morning. Watching that footage play out after watching the new Netflix movie Rebel Ridge (it’s great) the night before is crazy.

This is the third article tonight I’m writing about this incident, so I’m a little tongue-tied about it. But I really thought I was looking at AI images when I opened my phone Sunday morning and saw Hill handcuffed. Only the multiple videos and tweets from Adam Schefter clued me in this was real.

But what a major disappointment for the Jaguars, who went scoreless after halftime. They had a 17-7 lead and were 13 yards away from the end zone late in the third quarter. But Travis Etienne fumbled at the 3-yard line, one of the weekend’s biggest turnovers, and that completely changed the game. A play later, it was Tyreek for 80 yards.

The big plays won it for Miami, and kicker Jason Sanders redeemed himself for an earlier miss with a 52-yard field goal at the buzzer to win 20-17. Miami never led in the game before that final snap.

Curious to see where things go from here with the team’s biggest nemesis, Buffalo, coming into town Thursday night.

Titans at Bears: The Comeback Win I Sorta Predicted for Caleb Williams’ Debut

One of my favorite picks this week was Chicago getting a clutch, comeback win in Caleb Williams’ debut to start helping out Matt Eberflus’ league-worst record in such games.

Well, it happened. It didn’t happen in any way I imagined, but it was a classic throwback to the 2006 Bears and the way they came back to beat the Cardinals on Monday Night Football with multiple return touchdowns.

The Bears were awful offensively, trailed 17-0, and only finished with 148 yards of offense. The preseason is not the regular season, and Caleb was 14-of-29 for 93 yards. On the bright side, he only took two sacks and threw no picks. Jusitn Fields probably loses this game if given the chance.

But Williams was not doing much to help the comeback effort. The Bears blocked a punt for a touchdown. They also turned a strip-sack of Will Levis into a field goal drive that netted 1 yard.

But it ended up being one of the hardest games I’ve ever had to catalogue for 4QC/GWD purposes:

  • Chicago trailed 17-10 to start the fourth quarter and had a drive going with Williams.
  • The 44-yard drive ended with a 50-yard field goal to make it 17-13.
  • Levis coughed up the ball, setting up that 1-yard drive for a field goal to make it 17-16.
  • Technically, you just had two 4QC/GWD attempts, and the offense chipped in two field goals.
  • Four plays later, Will Levis forced a pick-six, and there goes the go-ahead score for Chicago at 22-17.
  • Williams completed a 2-point conversion pass to D’Andre Swift to make it 24-17, an important 7-point cushion.

It’s clearly a team fourth-quarter comeback. It’s clearly not a game-winning drive since the pick-six is not a drive. The 2PC was important though, and that makes me wonder if I should be counting it. But I’m not going to. At the same time, I’m giving Williams the 4QC win since without the two field goals from the offense, the pick-six doesn’t win the game for Chicago.

It’s a messy situation, and it’s all the fault of Levis. Why in the hell would you force this pass up on 3rd-and-6 with the lead? Just take the sack and live another drive.

That is seriously some 2001 or 2006 Bears bullshit. Also, of course Levis couldn’t make up for it on the final drive, getting picked again.

Williams did not impress, but Levis disappointed even more as he should be further along than this. I’m really not sure about that 2023 draft class outside of C.J. Stroud.

Texans at Colts: My MVP Gets It Done in Wild Week 1 Game

C.J. Stroud is my MVP pick this year, but how about those new additions in Houston? Stefon Diggs caught both of Stroud’s touchdowns, but it was running back Joe Mixon who had the huge game with 159 yards and a touchdown on the ground. The Colts had few answers for this offense, especially in must-stop situations.

But the player I thought was the biggest wild card this year is Anthony Richardson, and he did not disappoint with his “boom-or-bust” playing label. He was only 9-of-19 passing, but he had three different completions for over 50 yards, including a 60-yard touchdown pass to Alec Pierce that was one of the longest and most impressive touchdown throws I’ve ever seen in the NFL:

He even slid before throwing it, so he didn’t fully step into it. Incredible play. Too bad he misses some of the easy ones, so if he can correct that with experience, then the Colts should have something here.

At least offensively. The defense could not stop Houston in the fourth quarter despite the offense making it a 2-point game twice. The Texans responded with touchdowns twice, including a play I loved the decision for from coach DeMeco Ryans.

The Texans were up 22-20 and faced 4th-and-2 at the 2-yard line with 4:45 left. Why kick the field goal to go up 5 points and risk losing on a touchdown in the final minute? Go for the jugular, which they did, and Diggs caught his second touchdown to make it a 2-score game again.

But even after Indy scored to again make it 29-27, the four-minute offense went to work with a couple of first downs, including a 3rd-and-11 conversion for 12 yards from Stroud to Nico Collins, a Colts killer.

It’s only one game, but again, this is why I’m big on the Texans to be a new rival to the Chiefs. If you get Stroud playing like this, he’s someone who could outduel Mahomes in a fourth quarter and keep the ball away from him in a one-score game.

Green Bay, my Super Bowl pick, almost broke my heart Friday night with the sloppy performance and Love injury. But the Texans, who were my Green Bay equivalent in the AFC to possibly derail Kansas City’s three-peat, gave me some confidence with this performance.

But let’s keep it going and get even better.

Steelers at Falcons: The Six Field Goal Mike Tomlin Special

I ended up (regrettably) watching most of this game. Basically, it was the kind of Chicago Bears win you would have thought Justin Fields could have enjoyed there. Pretty lousy offense, Fields flirting with disaster on fumbled snaps to start the game, bad third-down sacks as the coaching staff didn’t trust him, and the defense and special teams were fantastic for the Steelers.

T.J. Watt and kicker Chris Boswell basically won the game for them. We know the last Mike Tomlin playoff win was 18-16 on six field goals against the 2016 Chiefs. He kind of did it again as Boswell made six field goals and most of them were very long.

Watt was a beast again, and Kirk Cousins looked very rusty and slow in a new offense after his Achilles tear. Not a good debut at all for him, and it’s as if Arthur Smith never left. Hell, he was in the building calling multiple runs on 3rd-and-long in this game.

But this is how the Steelers win. Keep it close and hope that a fumble happens when a receiver is running in motion for Atlanta. That really did happen, and of course, Watt was the one there to pounce on the ball in a big moment.

But Cousins had his chances to be the hero as Fields – no shocker – couldn’t put the game away. But he was picked with 2:34 left and then sacked by Watt on the final snap to mercifully end this one.

The Steelers have some compensation incentives to not keep playing Fields, and I think we’ll see Russell Wilson eventually. But this kind of offense isn’t going to beat that many teams in the NFL without superhuman efforts from Watt.

He might be up to the task though, especially if the idea that linemen playing closer to the line instead of leaning back is a point of emphasis to cut down on those illegal formations.

However, I’m still puzzled as to why they traded Diontae Johnson. This passing game is George Pickens or bust right now.

Cardinals at Bills: The Almost Upset of the Week

I said in my Week 1 predictions that I could easily see Arizona winning this as an upset and referendum on Buffalo getting rid of Stefon Diggs. But even when the Cardinals went up 10, I wasn’t that worried as I noticed the Cardinals had the ball for 13 of the first 15 minutes. Buffalo just needed the ball.

Josh Allen was facing a no-name defense, so he didn’t need big-name receivers. He had plenty enough around him, but I was surprised that Dalton Kincaid only had an 11-yard catch. But I was confident in rookie Keon Coleman (51 yards led team in receiving) having an impressive debut against this secondary to alleviate some concerns after the team let the Chiefs get Xavier Worthy at No. 28. That could still be a huge regret, but Coleman was always going to produce this week.

By game’s end, Buffalo even pulled ahead in time of possession, so no big deal. But the Cardinals still made this interesting thanks to a 96-yard kickoff return touchdown in the fourth quarter. I’m not a big fan of the dynamic kickoff so far, but it is producing better field position and already a touchdown like that.

But in a 31-28 game, the Bills nearly botched this badly. They had a chance to put the game away but Allen was stuffed on a 3rd-and-2 run. Instead of going for the 4th-and-3 at the Arizona 21 at the 2-minute warning, they kicked the short field goal and settled for a 34-28 lead with Arizona having all three timeouts to drive for the winning touchdown.

To make it worse, the Bills’ kickoff went out of bounds, so Murray only needed 60 yards. He’s done far harder before, including against Buffalo in 2020 (“Hail Murray”). When you have Allen, you should be going for that fourth down. The 6-point lead is one of the worst places to be. At least if it was still a 31-28 game, you can count on Arizona to probably kick a field goal instead of go for a fourth down.

But the Cardinals had their chances, and it’s my understanding rookie wideout Marvin Harrison Jr. was left wide open on the drive for a potential touchdown, but Kyler didn’t see it or didn’t think to throw to him. The drive ended with Murray throwing incomplete on 4th-and-7 at the Buffalo 29 with 26 seconds left.

Crisis adverted – barely. But the Bills will need to clean some things up in Miami this week, and Allen reportedly has a left hand injury that he suffered on one of his touchdown runs. Let that sink in.

Vikings at Giants: Wrong Improbable New York QB Breakout Year

I expected both of these teams to be terrible this year, and I still believe that’s highly possible. But one of my worst picks this week was the Giants as the upset special at home. I got a little too focused on what happened in 2022, ignoring 2023, and the fact that Daniel Jones is just not the answer. At least with Darnold, we haven’t seen him fail as many times, and he has some solid talent around him in a pass-friendly offense.

Darnold started this game on fire, then the team had little reason to score more as Jones wasn’t getting the job done. But this pick-6, while a very athletic play by the defender, is a good example of why this season needs to be Jones’ last in New York.

And what the hell were those jerseys? Alas, Andrew Van Ginkel is apparently the master of the fast interception.

Raiders at Chargers: Can Jim Harbaugh Go 5-1 in the AFC West?

Coach Jim Harbaugh made his NFL return with a win, 22-10 over the Raiders. He came here to make Justin Herbert’s life easier, and so far, it worked. The Chargers had just 11 first downs, the fewest in the Herbert era. They gave Herbert 170 rushing yards while he only threw for 144, another rarity.

The passing game is a work in progress with these young receivers, but how about J.K. Dobbins rushing for 135 yards in his team debut? He even ripped off a 61-yard play. Great to see after injuries robbed him in Baltimore from more success.

But mission successful in not blowing a two-score lead in the fourth quarter. However, the Chargers got some help from new Raiders coach Antonio Pierce, a hire I was not supportive for. In his first game without the interim tag, he made a big mistake in a 16-10 game with 7:15 left. The Raiders faced a 4th-and-1 at the Los Angeles 43 and decided to punt.

I can understand the old-school philosophy there as that’s what you used to do in those situations. But with under half a quarter left, you’re looking at maybe one more possession before you start relying on all your timeouts. You also have to remember that converting 4th-and-1 is in your favor (> 50%). I think punting was a big mistake, and you have to think it won’t be the last time we see this from Pierce, the big flaw in hiring a defensive-minded coach who only sees the old ways of the game he played.

To make it worse, the defense he relies on gave up a 92-yard touchdown drive thanks to the big Dobbins run. Gardner Minshew was picked to end it, but he’s probably still their best choice for a quarterback for the rest of the year despite only 10 points in Los Angeles.

But with the way the Raiders and Broncos look, who says Harbaugh can’t steal a game against the Chiefs and possibly go 5-1 in the division to fuel a playoff berth as a wild card? That was one of my main thoughts on the Chargers all along, but after Week 1, I feel even better about it.

Broncos at Seahawks: Sean Payton on His Week 1 Shit Again

The Seahawks are going to have some elite defensive stats in this one, the debut and first win for coach Mike Macdonald. But for the second year in a row, Sean Payton went into a Week 1 and watched his quarterback put on a dink-and-dunk performance that was literally for the record books.

Fewest Passing Yards by Number of Completions in NFL history (1950-2024)

After Russell Wilson had a record-low 177 passing yards on 27 completions against the Raiders last year, rookie Bo Nix did him one better and had just 138 yards on 26 completions. That’s the fewest passing yards in a game with more than 25 completions in NFL history.

This was rough, and Nix could have easily had more than the two picks he threw as Seattle dropped several. But it’s not like he had any real help out there other than his defense coming up with a pair of safeties, something you almost never see. But Nix ended up leading the Broncos with 35 rushing yards, including a late touchdown that made it mildly interesting at 26-20.

Geno Smith had some mistakes, but he also had a 34-yard touchdown run that he couldn’t possibly have done last year when he was playing hurt. When it came to icing the game with a late third-down pass to deny Nix getting a shot at a game-winning drive, Smith found Tyler Lockett for 9 yards to end things.

Enough to be encouraged about for Seattle, but we really need to see this defense play a quarterback who knows what they’re doing. Granted, there may not be a ton of those in the league right now. But even Jacoby Brissett will be a step up in competition in New England next week.

Started to get a sense of how Nix completed over 77% of his passes at Oregon last year to set an NCAA single-season record. He’ll take literally any short completion you will give him no matter how fruitless the gain is. But you can’t end his career after one game. He’s just a rookie, albeit an older one.

Commanders at Buccaneers: It’s Probably Not 2012 in Washington Again

I guess the hope all along with Washington repeating its 2012 season success with Robert Griffin III would be a surprisingly good season from Jayden Daniels. While he did make me very happy in his debut with a 2-touchdown performance on the ground (+2200 odds), it wasn’t the kind of passing performance you wanted to see. Terry McLaurin (17 yards) barely did a thing. More than half of Daniels’ 184 passing yards went to running backs.

But he ran the ball 16 times for 88 yards and will be viable at the goal line. He just better tighten that helmet as it came loose a couple of times and nearly cost him that second touchdown. I’d be quite bitter right now if that happened.

But Dan Quinn’s defense was no real improvement on last year when they were the worst in the league under Ron Rivera and Jack Del Rio. Baker Mayfield picked them apart with 24-of-30 for 289 yards and 4 touchdowns. Mike Evans caught two scores and still has WR1 skills.

Tampa had one of the most thorough and complete performances of any team this week. Not that it should be that surprising against a rebuilt Washington team with a long way to go. But it’s a very good start with Detroit up next.

Next week: Are we peaking early with Bills-Dolphins on Thursday night? Saints-Cowboys could be interesting, or it could be a blowout. Either way, we get to test the Saints right away against a non-Carolina opponent, so that’s great. Bengals-Chiefs loses some luster with the New England upset, but it’d be typical NFL for Cincinnati to win that one to avoid an 0-2 start. That Chicago offense isn’t ready for prime time, so good luck in Houston. Ditto with Kirk Cousins going to Philly on his least favorite day of the week.

NFL 2024 Week 1 Predictions: Home Favorites Edition

~ Scott ~ 1 Comment

It’s always one of the longest weeks of my year to get ready for Week 1 of a new NFL season. I thought I put together some well-reasoned 2024 season predictions with the Green Bay Packers becoming the latest NFC flash in the pan to reach the big game.

After one game last night in Brazil, I fear my vision might be cooked. Nothing’s getting me out of bed Saturday until I can get at least 6 hours of sleep after this long week, but I hate the thought of waking up to see “Jordan Love out for season”. He was injured (ankle or worse) in the final seconds of a 34-29 loss that didn’t make the Packers look ready for the next level.

It didn’t make the Eagles, my NFC East pick, look like much either. But I like to think the poor field conditions caused a lot of the bad plays by both teams. But even before he was injured, Love looked erratic and inaccurate like he did early in 2023. Hurts made some really boneheaded plays all night, and even the Tush Push failed multiple times as he struggled with his new center. I guess Jason Kelce was pretty damn important.

But again, you like to think both teams can move on and will play on better fields going forward. Just a sloppy Week 1 game on a soccer field in South America. But in Green Bay’s case, we don’t know if they have to move on with signing Ryan Tannehill or something like that, because they sure as shit aren’t going anywhere with Malik Willis starting games. I just hope it’s a high-ankle sprain and Love can be back in a couple of weeks.

Guess I’ll just have to wake up and face the dread of what the news will be there. Is this what happens when I finally pick the Packers for the first time in 14 years to win the Super Bowl? Yikes.

This Week’s Articles

NFL Week 1 Predictions

I’ve been doing this so many years that I should have been adding the year in the title as to not create so many dupes with the URL. Whoops. But here’s where I’m at for Week 1.

Remember, Week 1 is not the time to go crazy. So much uncertainty and new things to learn.

One thing I love this year is the overs, and they’re already 2-0. We’ve had unders being profitable 3 years in a row, and I think we see more scoring this year. It’ll help if teams are just going to do touchbacks on the dynamic kickoff and give up the 30-yard line to start most drives.

But what stood out to me with this schedule in Week 1 is that 14 of the 16 games have a home favorite. Granted, Packers-Eagles was played on a (shitty) neutral field, but the only road favorites are the Texans and Vikings, and I like the Giants to upset the Vikings since I’m not sure when else they’ll be able to win this year.

But this is a ton of home favorites in Week 1. The 2021 season only had 9 home favorites and they were 2-7 ATS. I wanted to pick more underdogs ATS, but here’s why I struggled to do so:

Justin Fields might start for the Steelers since Russell Wilson’s calf is acting up, and you know I think the worst of Fields. The Steelers may still lose by 3 points and cover, but I’m not trusting them this week in Atlanta to score enough.

I think Miami plays its best under Mike McDaniel in September, and they have better weapons than the Jaguars and I just expect them to cover 3.5.

I wanted to go Patriots +7.5 since I think Jacoby Brissett could surprise people with competitiveness, the Bengals are a bit overrated as usual, and they have injuries at WR. However, I also have my narrative that the Patriots are going to be terrible under Jerod Mayo this year, so even if the Bengals stumble to a 24-16 win, that’s good enough to cover.

Carolina is another team I’d like to pull the trigger on at +3.5 in New Orleans, but I need to see it first from Bryce Young and Dave Canales.

I absolutely can see the Cardinals upsetting Buffalo (-6.5) with the takes going wild about trading Diggs, letting the Chiefs get Worthy, leaving Josh Allen without weapons, etc. I can see it. But on the other hand, I see a weak Arizona roster on defense, the Bills should still play good defense, and we know Buffalo wins a lot of games in blowout fashion. So I can’t trust Arizona on the road yet.

A statement win for Jim Harbaugh with the Chargers instead of choking or barely hanging on against the Chargers is my expectation this week. Couldn’t go there even though we know the Chargers are always up for some Chargering. But hopefully that’s a new era starting.

Then I think the other rookie QBs are in tough spots on the road with Bo Nix facing a new Mike Macdonald defense and Jayden Daniels on the road against Todd Bowles. Not liking those matchups even if I don’t think either game is necessarily a blowout.

Can the Rams win in Detroit? Sure, it was 24-23 in January. But this is just my narrative that I think Detroit looks better defensively, they force Stafford into some mistakes, and they are up 5-8 late to get the cover.

Then on Monday night, who knows what to expect from Aaron Rodgers with the Jets? Try lasting a full drive for starters. But we know the 49ers have been a real nemesis in his career, especially when the 49ers are a great team, which they still should be this year. So, I just can’t trust the Jets in that one right now.

Definitely excited to see what happens this week. Not a ton of great games on Sunday, but a lot of interesting matchups to start figuring out what we’re going to see this year.

I’ll be posting a grid of picks for the last 14 games on Twitter late Saturday night.

2024 NFL Predictions

~ Scott ~ 3 Comments

Going into my 14th season of NFL coverage, I would just once like to say I predicted that year’s Super Bowl winner correctly before the season. Seven times I ended up getting a Super Bowl team right, but all seven times I managed to have the wrong game outcome.

Just my luck. I probably couldn’t predict seven coin flips in a row but I managed that.

But I’m on a three-year drought of not getting any Super Bowl teams right. Last year, I thought I had something cooking with Ravens over Cowboys as it was a year set up beautifully for Baltimore with the No. 1 seed and the best defense. Even Dak Prescott had arguably his best year and the Cowboys were blowing out scrubs left and right. The Ravens were blowing out a lot of good teams, so maybe it’d work out.

But we know what happened in January. The same thing that always seems to happen for the Cowboys (since 1996) and for the Ravens with Lamar Jackson. I won’t be revisiting that matchup anytime soon.

Is 2024 a layup with the Kansas City Chiefs going for a historic three-peat with a roster that’s quite arguably better than their last two teams? Are they just inevitable as long as their core is intact? We’ll see.

The three-peat is clearly the No. 1 story this season. But my vision for this year’s narrative has been on my mind since February. One fanbase will be happy to see I’m picking them for the first time here, but don’t get too excited when you look back at my track record of picking the ultimate winner.

Right Super Bowl team, wrong Super Bowl outcome.

My 2023 NFL predictions were the second-most accurate I’ve done since 2013. I’m proud of what I came up with for the AFC where I nailed the Ravens as a 13-4 No. 1 seed, nailed the Bills finishing No. 2 ahead of No. 3 Kansas City, and also had the No. 7 Steelers with a 10-7 record. A perfect 4-for-4 on those picks even if I had no clue Mason Rudolph would be leading the playoff charge for the Steelers at the end there.

Of course, my other picks flopped in the AFC as 2023 was just a brutal year for quarterback injuries. Trevor Lawrence got a little banged up late in the season and never won another start after that. The Jets lost Aaron Rodgers on opening night to a torn Achilles, and Joe Burrow neither started (calf) nor ended (wrist) the season healthy. That killed those picks, and I really didn’t see Houston coming so fast. Much more on them later.

My theme for 2023 was uncertainty. This year, it’s MOGA: Make Offense Great Again.

We can blame 2023 on a quarter of the league’s starting quarterbacks going down with a season-ending injury (shades of 2017). Hopefully, that means regression to the mean in 2024, and we see fewer serious injuries. We already lost rookie J.J. McCarthy in the preseason and are stuck with Sam Darnold in Minnesota, but they never really factored into the big picture of 2024 anyway.

But for as much as people try to pretend the NFL has turned into the (classic) Pac-12 with offense, that’s simply not the case. Ever since the 2020 COVID year with the empty stadiums led to record-setting offensive numbers, we continue to see a decline.

In fact, points and yards have decreased 3 years in a row in the NFL, which has only happened one other time since the 1970 merger. Since 2022, teams are scoring just under 22.0 points per game, which hasn’t happened in consecutive years since 2006-07.

If you bet the under in every NFL game, you would have been profitable (better than 52.38%) in each of the last three seasons. So, let’s look for more points this year, more touchdowns, and more comebacks.

After a historic 2022 season for comeback wins, things regressed to the rates we’ve seen in recent seasons. But we still went from 85 comebacks in the fourth quarter to 68 last year. More games were early runaways as 73.7% of the teams who led after the first quarter in 2023 won the game, up from about 60% in previous seasons.

Besides regression and better quarterback health, what else could facilitate more scoring? Let’s see what this new dynamic kickoff does. I was skeptical of it from the preseason, but when I crunched the numbers, 26.0 yards per kick return would be the highest season in NFL history. Touchbacks in the end zone can still happen, but the ball will go to the 30 instead of the 25. There should also be about triple the number of returnable kicks from 2023’s touchback fest.

Add that together and you get better starting field position for the league, which should improve scoring. May not help with the yardage numbers, but we’ll see what happens.

More offense, fewer blowouts. That’s what I’m looking for this year. I also am taking a bold approach in counting on two teams with quarterbacks who have only been a starter for one season to move into the elite class this year. If they got an early start on their success last year, I’m just trying to get there early in 2024 for what could be the start of something great.

But it’s definitely adding more risk than usual to my picks as things could always go badly there with disappointment. If all else fails, I’ll just back the three-peat as we all wait to see if the Chiefs make history.

This summer, I only did one full preview per team at 365Scores, but that project was heavy work night after night going back to July. I only finished with the Chiefs on Tuesday, and that ended up being a 7,300-word epic. Then I also wrote out 5,000 words on my NFL betting picks for the season (award winners, playoff teams, Super Bowl teams), so I’m not exactly looking to jump into 8,000 words here for this annual blog post of my final record predictions.

But I have a standard to uphold for myself, and this is still the only place where I post my final record predictions for each team. So, let’s get into it, and again, if you want more detailed analysis and writing about these teams rather than my 25th hour thoughts below, you have to go read the linked previews at 365Scores.

Note: Some of the over/under picks in these articles were subject to change as I only made my final record predictions over the weekend after going through the schedule. My final, official picks are as presented below.

NFL 2024 Predictions

AFC WEST

1. Kansas City Chiefs (13-4)

365Scores Preview: I looked at just how historic the Super Bowl three-peat would be, the new flaws the Chiefs had to deal with in 2023 that led to their most difficult regular season yet, and the subtle changes they made to emerge on top once again in the playoffs. I also tackled the myth that they’re beating up weak competition when the reality is they’ve done the best job of limiting their rivals from having championship success. The Chiefs only have the No. 4 scoring differential since 2019, but they are 6-0 in the playoffs against the teams (49ers, Ravens, Bills) ranked ahead of them. That’s how you end up with a dynasty and keep those teams ringless.

But another thing I talked about in the preview is the chances we haven’t seen the best Kansas City teams yet around Patrick Mahomes. If you make the offense faster and more efficient than last year, and if the defense can stay in the top 8 or so, then you might be looking at the 2024 Chiefs as their best team yet.

However, it’s still a team held together by its core pieces of Mahomes, Andy Reid, Travis Kelce, Chris Jones, and Steve Spagnuolo. That core covers up a lot of the flaws, and we’ll just have to see if letting L’Jarius Sneed go at corner comes back to haunt them if they face a team with better receiving talent that has a quarterback who can duel with Mahomes.

There are a couple out there I think, and they’re not the usual suspects. It’s time for some new rivals for the Chiefs to vanquish if they want to keep the throne for another year. This is probably the only great shot Mahomes will have at a three-peat, which would give him an edge as the first to do it in the hardest era to do it. It took 19 years just for a team to repeat, the longest drought in history. A three-peat is insane in this game.

So, that way even if Mahomes never wins a certain number of rings, he’d still have the three-peat as his ace in the hole. It’s such a huge opportunity for Kansas City.

2. Los Angeles Chargers (10-7)

365Scores Preview: Of the 8 new head coach hirings this season, Jim Harbaugh to the Chargers is my top pick. He makes history with Sean Payton and Andy Reid in the AFC West this week as this becomes a division where three coaches have won over 60% of their games. That’s never happened since the merger. He doesn’t have a roster as talented as the one he took over in 2011 in San Francisco, but he knows he has the quarterback in place with Justin Herbert.

I obviously think highly of Herbert, and more people would if they ever saw him get a legitimate defense. The 2023 Chargers had 5 lost comebacks, which I believe to be a single-season record in all of NFL history. That’s five games (three with Herbert) where they trailed in the fourth quarter, took the lead, and still lost. That’s maddening and so on brand for the Chargers.

I liked the draft picks of Joe Alt and Ladd McConkey instead of taking Malik Nabers at No. 5. But it sure would have been nice to keep Keenan Allen around. Definitely some young receivers to deal with, but I think Harbaugh and Herbert are going to figure it out and they should have a winning record this year.

3. Denver Broncos (6-11)

365Scores Preview: I am excited to see how Sean Payton fares with a rookie quarterback he can mold from Day 1 in Bo Nix. Go figure, he drafted someone who set a NCAA single-season record for completion percentage at Oregon. That was Drew Brees’ money stat in the NFL, but it would be hard for Nix to ever come close to the legacy of Brees in the NFL. Still, I think there’s some potential here and at least he looked confident in the preseason and led some scoring drives.

But still a lot of roster flaws here. A 6-11 record would actually be the worst of Payton’s career as he’s never done worse than 7-9 before. But I had to find wins for other teams and Denver just didn’t stand out enough on defense to give them the benefit of the doubt. The preview goes into how the 2023 Broncos had three different identities in one season.

We’ll see what Payton can cook up with Nix in a fresh direction after they swallowed $85 million in dead cap money to get rid of Russell Wilson. I still can’t believe how poorly that went these last two years.

4. Las Vegas Raiders (4-13)

365Scores Preview: I spent much of this preview questioning the hiring of Antonio Pierce, who was never a defensive coordinator in the NFL, lost a 3-0 home game indoors to the Vikings, relied on two defensive touchdowns in 7 seconds to upset the Chiefs in a game where they couldn’t complete a pass after the opening quarter, and then the Broncos gave up in Week 18 when they beat him. The 63-21 win over the Chargers was the team giving up on Brandon Staley after Justin Herbert and Keenan Allen were lost for the season.

I just don’t see it with Pierce, and it’s even worse when you saddle him with the least impressive quarterback situation in the NFL in 2024. Gardner Minshew and Aidan O’Connell? What’s the plan there? Getting Deion Sanders’ son in 2025?

I hope Brock Bowers is legit at tight end, because elite tight ends are fun to watch. Don’t expect to see much this year though given the quarterback situation and Pierce’s likely one-sided coaching that will cater to the defense.

Yeah, they’ll probably win a few more games than this, but I’ll be damned if I could find them on the schedule. I already have them getting wins over the Rams and Jaguars.

NFC WEST

1. San Francisco 49ers (12-5)

365Scores Preview: What more can you even say at this point? They should have gone last in overtime on offense. Guess they’ll know better next time, but this team has to be close to running out of chances after not turning four recent NFC Championship Game appearances into a ring. They might get passed over by Green Bay this year in the NFC if they’re not careful. At least Brock Purdy showed his rookie season wasn’t a fluke. He didn’t lose that Super Bowl for them either. He just didn’t win it.

The division and their talent should keep them near the top again. But it’s getting a little stale and tiring with this team. Glad they finally ended the Brandon Aiyuk saga, the most annoying story of the offseason. Should have just paid him months ago. He’s their best weapon for the long term.

2. Los Angeles Rams (9-8)

365Scores Preview: I definitely missed on this team last year, but that’s because I had no expectations for Puka Nacua looking more like Cooper Kupp than Kupp did. Incredible rookie season for a fifth-round pick. I’d sneakily pick him for OPOY if I knew I could trust him to stay healthy and that Stafford wouldn’t still rely on Kupp so much.

But you lose Aaron Donald and that’s tough to replace. They also beat up on some not-so-great teams down the stretch last year after a poor start despite Puka’s hot start. I’m still not fully sold on this team and could see them finish 9-8 and have to see if the tie-breakers work in their favor or not. Remember, that 10th win last year was against San Francisco’s backups in a battle of backups where Carson Wentz of all people led a comeback win.

3. Seattle Seahawks (8-9)

365Scores Preview: A little dark horse team if rookie coach Mike Macdonald can get the defense up to par right away. But I think that’ll take at least a second season. Still, a better defense is exactly what Geno Smith and a talented offense needed the last two years to do better than 9-8 records that don’t always qualify for a playoff spot.

I’m not picking them to get it done, but I can at least understand what they’re cooking in Seattle if they do pull off a playoff year.

4. Arizona Cardinals (6-11)

365Scores Preview: I’m all for staying put at No. 4 and drafting Marvin Harrison Jr. I’m also down with the Cardinals winning a few more games than last year with what will hopefully be a full season from Kyler Murray, but the lack of defensive stars still bothers me here. In going through the schedule, the Cardinals became an easy choice for a loss when I felt they had to play a team with a better quarterback as I just didn’t trust that defense to win a shootout with Murray.

But I’m not against Jonathan Gannon yet or anything. Just don’t think the defensive rebuild is going that great.

AFC EAST

1. Buffalo Bills (11-6)

365Scores Preview: This could be one of the best division races we’ve ever seen as it’s legitimately between three teams. Everyone but New England, which is music to my ears.

In the end, I still put the Bills on top as I just trust Josh Allen more than I do a 41-year-old Aaron Rodgers coming off a torn Achilles, an of course over Tua Tagovailoa. The Bills likely moved on from Stefon Diggs at the right time. But the receivers are young and raw, and I think you’re going to see the Bills struggle in some of those bigger showdowns with the Ravens, Chiefs, Texans, and more this year.

But I still think they are balanced enough and know how to win and won’t get swept by the Jets. They’re still capable of sweeping Miami too.

2. New York Jets (11-6)

365Scores Preview: Yeah, “This should be fun” he said last year. Aaron Rodgers lasted 4 snaps and we were treated to a ton of island games with Zach Wilson and Tim Boyle at quarterback. Real fun.

But I recycled a lot of the 2023 preview for 2024 since it feels like the same situation and questions, just a year older and more concerned about Rodgers’ health. We haven’t seen him play at a high level since 2021.

Yet, I find myself going with the optimistic approach that Rodgers will be good and the defense will still be great. They also upgraded the offensive line and should run the ball better. That combo sounds like enough to win 11 games against a schedule that is more balanced and forgiving than last year.

But the Jets are definitely one of the biggest wild cards in 2024 as you can see anything from 12-loss disaster to a No. 1 seed. Shit, maybe we’ll even see a Mahomes vs. Rodgers playoff game. About damn time.

3. Miami Dolphins (9-8)

365Scores Preview: My paper tiger team. Sure, they might have the fastest offense in history, but where does it go when they go on the road and play a good team? That’s 10 straight losses for Mike McDaniel on the road against a playoff team.

The Dolphins swept the Jets last year. With Rodgers back, I have that turning around, which is a big reason why I only have the Dolphins at 9-8. Is that enough for the wild card? We’ll see below.

4. New England Patriots (3-14)

365Scores Preview: I’ll be shocked if they’re not starting Drake Maye by Week 5. Jerod Mayo is in over his head, and yes, Bill Belichick the GM has a lot to do with the poor state of this team right now.

I have 3-14 as the worst record this year too, by the way. Should be fun to hear what Belichick has to say as a media member when this team comes up. Hard to be too critical, Bill. You left these cupboards bare.

NFC EAST

1. Philadelphia Eagles (11-6)

365Scores Preview: It’s one of my favorite stats that the NFC East has not had a repeat winner since the 2001-04 Eagles. Meanwhile, every other division has had at least two repeat winners in that time. I go through it in here why this has happened to the East, and it’s usually because of the shared quarterback talent in the division (no alpha for a long time), and injuries to those quarterbacks.

But you can also argue the 2023 Eagles had the greatest collapse in NFL history after a 10-1 start. No division title and no playoff win after a 10-1 start. But I go into why that was always fishy, why I was right to compare them to the 2022 Vikings when they were 10-1, and why I still think the streak continues as they steal the division back from Dallas this year with better coordinators.

The key is the home game late in the year against Dallas. These teams have been splitting home games with each other, and the Eagles get the big one late.

Also, I am curious to see that Tush Push without Jason Kelce at center, but something tells me it will still work well.

2. Dallas Cowboys (10-7)

365Scores Preview: The Cowboys more or less did what you expected them to do last year. Smashed the bad teams, split with the Eagles at home, and got smashed by teams like the 49ers and Bills. Lost a close one on the road to their paper tiger doppelganger from the AFC in Miami.

But everything was going fine until the playoffs when they fell behind 27-0 in the blink of an eye against Green Bay. That one floored me, and it’s a bad sign for this team that they’ve turned three straight 12-win seasons into a playoff win over a lousy Tampa Bay team in 2022 and that’s it.

So, I am soured on Dallas, but the preview has some interesting facts about why 2024 might be the last chance for Dak Prescott if he’s ever going to win a Super Bowl for Dallas. Either he or the coach should probably go if they fail this year.

3. Washington Commanders (4-13)

365Scores Preview: This would probably be more shocking than the RGIII year in 2012 if this team was good. But I just don’t see it this year with Dan Quinn and Kliff Kingsbury as the retread coaches getting another shot. Jayden Daniels had incredible numbers in 2023, but not so much in his first four college seasons. He’ll also have to prove he can stay healthy after taking some comically bad hits in college.

4. New York Giants (3-14)

365Scores Preview: What is the most shocking outcome possible for the 2024 NFL season? I might have to go with a legitimate breakout season from Daniel Jones. It’s Year 6 and I’m out. He had one of the worst Year 5 seasons ever in 2023, and he’s a quarterback coming off a torn ACL where his mobility is his best feature. It’s not a good fit, it’s not going to get fixed with Brian Daboll, and they should just admit a mistake (like Russ in Denver) and cut bait after this year.

Good draft pick of Nabers though. The next quarterback should love him.

AFC SOUTH

1. Houston Texans (13-4)

365Scores Preview: Yeah, I went big at 13-4. I think the Texans have the right stuff this year and their preview was one I was very much looking forward to writing. C.J. Stroud is my MVP pick as I loved his ability to lead the league in INT% and passing yards per game (first time that’s happened since 1970 John Brodie) as a rookie. Now you give him Stefon Diggs and possibly the best group of weapons in the league if Tank Dell stays healthy and takes a second-year leap. Stroud could spread the ball around and lead a No. 1 offense here if everything goes well.

But I also loved the move of Danielle Hunter for the pass rush. Don’t just settle with Will Anderson Jr. doing well as a rookie. He’ll get better too, giving them bookends to rush the passer with.

As I detailed in the preview, so many NFL teams that go to Super Bowls do it early in their runs. It only took two seasons for Don Shula and Dan Marino, Bill Cowher and Ben Roethlisberger, Pete Carroll and Russell Wilson, and Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes.

Stroud had one of the best rookie seasons ever. I think he has one of the best sophomore seasons ever, and he can wrap up MVP and possibly a No. 1 seed in December in those island games against the Chiefs and Ravens, the most important part of the NFL schedule this year with those teams playing 3 games in 10 days.

But just read the linked preview to fully understand why I’m high on Houston in 2024. They were only scratching the surface in 2023.

2. Jacksonville Jaguars (9-8)

365Scores Preview: I struggle with this team since I think they rode improbable comebacks and the Titans’ collapse to a division title in 2022. Then last year, they were 9-8 again and probably a better team had Trevor Lawrence not gotten injured against the Bengals. But I’m not a big Lawrence fan, and this preview goes into some interesting numbers that show how absurdly important completion percentage has been to him, and why throwing short might be the key to his success. It could also explain why Calvin Ridley just wasn’t his guy but he loves Christian Kirk and Evan Engram. That also could contradict giving him Gabe Davis and the rookie from LSU.

In the end, I landed on 9-8 again as I clearly have bigger plans for Houston in this division. But I do acknowledge the AFC South is a division where anyone could win this year. Nothing would surprise me on that front.

3. Indianapolis Colts (8-9)

365Scores Preview: Speaking of why anyone could win the AFC South, imagine if the Colts go from 9-8 and a red zone touchdown shy of the division title to hopefully getting a full, healthy season from Anthony Richardson and Jonathan Taylor. They also drafted possibly the best edge rusher in the draft and a favorite for DROY (Laiatu Latu).

However, I’m not sold that Richardson can stay healthy as he was knocked out of three games with injuries on runs last year, and he’s going to probably run 100+ times this season if he can. At least they have Joe Flacco as the backup. But I also think Richardson is going to be an inconsistent player with a great highlight reel who misses some easy plays.

It should be a grind for the Colts, who haven’t won the division since 2014.

4. Tennessee Titans (7-10)

365Scores Preview: I like the table in this preview that looks at what happens when you get a second-year quarterback (Will Levis) and pair him with a rookie coach (Brian Callahan). Some good turnaround stories have happened this way, especially if the quarterback needs a boost after a struggle last year. The Titans fit that mold, and they really upgraded the offense around Levis. Not saying I love the additions of Tony Pollard and Calvin Ridley, but it’s more than just an aging DeAndre Hopkins and Derrick Henry like they had last year. They also got Tyler Boyd, so you’re talking about one of the better WR trios in the league, a key component for a Callahan offense coming from Cincy.

But I’m also curious to see if Levis dramatically brings down his ADOT, which led the league last year while Callahan’s quarterbacks had the two lowest figures for the Bengals. Not going crazy to pick a worst-to-first team here, but it’s one of the few chances of that happening this year if Levis were to have that 2017 Jared Goff type of Year 2 leap.

NFC SOUTH

1. Atlanta Falcons (10-7)

365Scores Preview: I hated the Michael Penix Jr. draft pick and still don’t understand it when you’re paying Kirk Cousins this much money in a winnable division. They should have gave him Rome Odunze, a new left tackle for the long term, or Dallas Turner/Latu instead. Having said that, I think the Falcons have a great schedule with an easy finish that will allow them to clinch the division title after a slow start to the year with Cousins coming off a torn Achilles.

Expecting big things from Bijan Robinson in this offense since I’m still not sold that much on Kyle Pitts or the receivers after Drake London. I also think hiring Raheem Morris over Bill Belichick was a mistake, but we’ll see what he does given another chance.

2. New Orleans Saints (9-8)

365Scores Preview: I spent this preview thinking we are overlooking the Saints, who became an afterthought after missing the playoffs last year despite giving Derek Carr the best defense of his career and the easy schedule living up to the hype. But the Saints finished strong in a way that usually bodes well for playoff success the next season. They’re basically the same team as last year, but a year older, and inching further to real cap hell.

But that still might be good enough for 9-8 again, and hopefully this time that’s enough for the playoffs. As I mentioned in the preview, it was really a blown 17-0 lead and missed clutch field goal in Week 3 in Green Bay that ruined the team’s season. Otherwise, we would be viewing the Packers and Saints very differently going into this year.

Also, the Saints were the only team in the NFL to not have a 4th-quarter comeback win in 2023 (playoffs included). Remember when that was Carr’s specialty? Let’s see some positive regression in that department this year to get to 9-8 again. More close wins should make up for any shortcomings they have as an aging roster.

3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-10)

365Scores Preview: Remember when the Buccaneers won the Super Bowl and basically brought the whole team back? That almost worked out for them in 2021. But I think doing it again in 2024 is a mistake when that roster has declined to the point where barely getting to 9-8 is all they can do to win the division title, and the division should be stronger this year.

Even if they get to 8-9 or 9-8 again, I think Tampa’s reign at the top of the NFC South ends this year.

4. Carolina Panthers (6-11)

365Scores Preview: This is the Tennessee team in the NFC this year. A second-year quarterback (Bryce Young) who really struggled with a rookie coach (Dave Canales) and better weapons beyond just Adam Thielen. Yet, while I loved the over 5.5 wins for Carolina, I initially gave them 5-12 as their final record. It was the last change I made to the picks to get them to 6-11.

I want to believe in the turnaround and that Young will be okay, but I need to see more first.

AFC NORTH

1. Baltimore Ravens (12-5)

365Scores Preview: Just once it’d be sweet to see a full, healthy season from both Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow so we can put this nonsense to rest. I’ve said the Bengals won the division in 2021 and 2022 because Jackson was injured in both Decembers and never played again those years. At the time of his injury, the Ravens were in first place both years. That’s just a fact.

That’s also my motivation for why I picked the Ravens to be a 13-4 No. 1 seed last year, which is exactly what they did. Now for this year, I’m not as optimistic about them going to the Super Bowl, but I can at least understand why it’d happen if it does. I think Derrick Henry is a perfect fit for what they do, but I’m very skeptical you can ride a back who will be 31 in January to a Super Bowl in this era. He’s also led the league in carries in 4-of-5 seasons, so the injury risk is higher.

Having said that, I think the Ravens, Chiefs, Texans, and Packers are the four most important previews I wrote this year. Definitely read this one if you want to see why the Ravens have struggled in the playoffs with Lamar. They try to be something they’re not in the playoffs. They can’t fall into that trap again if they’re ever going to get to a Super Bowl with Jackson and Harbaugh.

2. Cincinnati Bengals (11-6)

365Scores Preview: I had the Bengals at 11-6 last year and of course they started poorly and were never a real threat in the AFC. Joe Burrow needs to prove he can stay healthy, and he needs to increase his level of play. Show me more clutch moments in those tight games. Show me fewer sacks. He also has to get it done without Joe Mixon and Tyler Boyd, though I agree it was time to cut bait with both. We’ll see how the in-house promotion goes with offensive coordinator, but I always say good quarterbacks get their OCs hired, bad quarterbacks get their coaches fired. Most do just fine with a coordinator change.

Still have one of the best wide receiver duos in the game as I expect Ja’Marr Chase will get a payday soon. But I am hesitantly picking 11 wins for a team that was 9-8 last year and was swept by Pittsburgh as that defense was kryptonite for Jake Browning, who led the league in completion percentage in Burrow’s absence.

But the return of Burrow and reversing that Pittsburgh sweep could essentially be the difference in these teams’ records this year.

3. Pittsburgh Steelers (8-9)

365Scores Preview: I knew all offseason I’d likely have the Steelers straddling the line between 8-9 and 9-8 with history on the line as they try to tie the record with 21 non-losing seasons. But when it came time to go through the schedule, I have the Chiefs in Week 17 putting the nail in the coffin for the streak as they hand the Steelers their 9th loss, guaranteeing a losing record.

In the end, I just can’t buy the Diontae Johnson trade being a good idea, I don’t care for the hiring of Arthur Smith, and Russell Wilson just might be washed. He could end up getting benched in October a la Donovan McNabb as the Steelers see what they have with Justin Fields instead.

But I know Fields is in the running for the worst clutch quarterback of the 21st century, so those close wins the Steelers rely on to keep their streak going? Kiss them goodbye. At least Wilson can deliver some of those and keep the .500 record in striking distance.

But it’s just too hard to think this team rises above mediocrity this year. At the very least, we won’t be fooled again by the preseason like last year. The Steelers’ starting offense looked awful in August this time. Something tells me they aren’t holding back. Expect a ton of sacks no matter which quarterback plays.

4. Cleveland Browns (7-10)

365Scores Preview: I’ve said Deshaun Watson is the worst trade in NFL history, but he still has a chance to refute that. However, I’m not convinced he will with a team that lost some linemen, a good OL coach, and Nick Chubb is still on PUP. It didn’t take Baker Mayfield, Jacoby Brissett, or Joe Flacco this long to figure out Kevin Stefanski’s offense. What’s the holdup with Watson? I think he’s just washed, and I think his teammates are losing confidence in him.

There’s enough talent here to still flirt with the wild card, but I don’t think the Browns are anywhere near as successful as last season.

NFC NORTH

1. Green Bay Packers (13-4)

365Scores Preview: The youngest team to make the playoffs since 1977 will build on their hot finish and look like a top-tier team in 2024. We’ve already seen Matt LaFleur become the only coach to win 13 games in three straight seasons in 2019-21. He knows what he’s doing, and Jordan Love played at an MVP level down the stretch. I’m not fading a team that already beat Detroit in Detroit, beat the Chiefs, beat the Cowboys in the playoffs, and should have won in San Francisco if not for the rare 7-point comeback in the fourth quarter by the 49ers (rare for Kyle Shanahan teams).

I expect big things from the Packers this year, so definitely check that preview out for the full reasons why.

2. Detroit Lions (10-7)

365Scores Preview: I expressed my doubt in this preview of Detroit finishing the job it started last year. I just think 2023 set up perfectly for them with home games against the Rams and Buccaneers in the playoffs, then a San Francisco team that was a little vulnerable down the stretch with Deebo’s health and the defense not looking as elite. But to blow that 17-point lead the way they did, that was brutal, and a lot of it goes on Josh Reynolds’ drops and their inability to trust their kicker to make a field goal.

Reynolds is gone, but the kicking situation is still iffy, and I don’t think they have a great WR2 ready. Not that they really need one with all the other weapons they have. But I don’t see the offense getting even better this year, and that will be up to the defense for the team to move up a tier.

However, the Packers are my pick and I think that knocks Detroit down a peg to the wild card. I’m just not ready to crown the Lions as back-to-back division champs. They need to tighten things up defensively.

3. Chicago Bears (8-9)

365Scores Preview: Did a lot of research on Chicago again this offseason, concluding that Caleb Williams is walking into the best situation ever for a No. 1 quarterback pick. That’s why he’s my favorite pick for any award as he has the best odds to win OROY, but will it lead to a winning record as the Bears are favored for at over 8.5 wins?

I couldn’t quite get there as I still see the Packers and Lions as better teams in the division. I’m also not sold on Matt Eberflus as a coach, and while the offense should be better, I don’t expect the defense to be elite.

Remember, Andrew Luck is the only No. 1 pick at quarterback to win more than 7 games his rookie year. I think Caleb will be the second, but it’s an 8-9 record. Still, I’m excited about seeing him after how good he looked in the preseason.

But we’ve been fooled before with August football. Just look at Kenny Pickett and Sam Howell in 2023. But I really do believe the Bears finally landed on their franchise quarterback, and my preview goes to great lengths to explain the few chances they’ve had to replace Sid Luckman since the 1950s.

4. Minnesota Vikings (4-13)

365Scores Preview: I was already sour on the 2024 Vikings before J.J. McCarthy required season-ending surgery after one preseason game. I am not looking forward to Sam Darnold for a year, and thankfully the early schedule is so brutal that I doubt we’ll be talking up any Minnesota fool’s gold with a 3-1 start like the Panthers experienced a few years ago with Darnold before they finished 5-11.

But sure, it should be better for Justin Jefferson’s stats this year. Just keep feeding him the ball while you’re playing from behind most of the year. But it is a good opportunity for Kevin O’Connell to flex his coaching muscles if the offense can look semi-decent with Darnold in what should be his last chance to show he can start in the NFL.

PLAYOFFS

I was happy with most of my initial run through the schedule and getting things to add up to 272 wins. But after seeing I didn’t have many new playoff teams in the AFC, I made a change to drop Miami a game and move the Chargers up. I also happened to redo some of my 2023 picks with the Jets and Bengals winning 11 games as wild card teams.

AFC

  • 1. Houston (13-4)
  • 2. Kansas City (13-4)
  • 3. Baltimore (12-5)
  • 4. Buffalo (11-6)
  • 5. NY Jets (11-6)
  • 6. Cincinnati (11-6)
  • 7. LA Chargers (10-7)

For those wondering, yes, I have Houston getting the No. 1 seed by virtue of beating the Chiefs at Arrowhead in Week 16, setting up some interesting dynamics for the playoffs.

I think this would be a fantastic bracket in January. You get a wild card round with all division rematches with Chiefs-Chargers, Ravens-Bengals, and Bills-Jets. How incredible would that be? I think that sets up a rematch of Ravens-Chiefs in the divisional round, but this time in Kansas City where the Chiefs do it again to Lamar.

While I did give the Bills the AFC East title, I’m going to pick Rodgers and his defense to win in the playoffs in the wild card round, setting up a Jets-Texans game. I have the Jets being some kryptonite to C.J. Stroud, the team he had the concussion against last year, and they use Sauce Gardner and that defense to complete a season sweep of the young Texans. Defense still wins in January. Another MVP crashes and burns.

But this sets up a Jets-Chiefs AFC Championship Game in Arrowhead. We finally get to see Rodgers vs. Mahomes, but like usual in this round, Rodgers doesn’t get it done on the road. Mahomes helps the Chiefs to a record fifth Super Bowl in the last six seasons and the three-peat is one game away.

NFC

  • 1. Green Bay (13-4)
  • 2. San Francisco (12-5)
  • 3. Philadelphia (11-6)
  • 4. Atlanta (10-7)
  • 5. Dallas (10-7)
  • 6. Detroit (10-7)
  • 7. New Orleans (9-8)

The Saints sneak in at 9-8 this year, but don’t worry, they won’t be going on an epic run to host the Super Bowl. They’re going to lose in San Francisco, which loses out on the No. 1 seed thanks to a loss in Green Bay in Week 12.

Lions-Eagles could be a fun shootout, and I think I’ll back the Eagles at home. The Cowboys actually can win a road playoff game against the Falcons. I have some faith in that one.

That means the Eagles in San Francisco (BIG DOM REVENGE GAME) and Cowboys in Green Bay. Jordan Love shows he has that Rodgers way of owning the Cowboys in the postseason again. The Eagles come up short in San Francisco, setting up a rematch from last year but this time at Green Bay. LaFleur has struggled with Shanahan’s team so much, but I think the Packers get their revenge this time and complete a sweep of the 49ers to get to a Super Bowl.

SUPER BOWL LIX

It’s a rematch of Super Bowl I, a game where the 1966 Packers beat the Chiefs and won their second championship in a row. They followed it up with a third in Super Bowl II, completing the only official three-peat in NFL playoff history. Now it’s up to the 2024 Packers to defend that and stop the Chiefs in New Orleans.

You go back to 2021, Jordan Love actually made his first NFL start against the Chiefs when Rodgers was out with COVID. It didn’t go well, but the 13-7 final is the lowest-scoring game of Mahomes’ career with the Chiefs. Then when they met last year in Green Bay, Love outplayed Mahomes and was the only quarterback to score more than 24 points against the Chiefs. We know LaFleur got a 31-24 win over Reid’s Chiefs in 2019 too in a game Mahomes missed for injury.

What if the Packers just have the right stuff for beating the Chiefs? They have several talented receivers who can step up and attack that Kansas City secondary that is now just Trent McDuffie and some guys. You don’t know where the ball is going in any given matchup, and that’s the 2001-06 Patriots-like beauty of the Green Bay offense right now. Defenses don’t know who to double and Love can just pick his spots and expect the guys to produce.

But I’m not going to spend any more time talking about such a hypothetical. Let’s see if it happens, because it certainly makes the most sense of any matchup this year to me. The champs going for a three-peat against a team that beat them last year and nearly knocked out the 49ers last year too. It’s their time to move up a class, and beating the Chiefs in such a historic game would be one hell of an achievement for these Packers.

Love accomplishes what Rodgers couldn’t two weeks ago and beats Mahomes in this one with a late field goal as the kick finally goes in this time for Green Bay. Hell, maybe Harrison Butker will get so pissed on Kamala’s Inauguration Day that he makes a disparaging rant about women that even turns the Swifties against him so bad that he ends up choking on a game-tying field goal to the loudest boos you’ve ever heard just when you thought we were going to overtime for the second year in a row in the Super Bowl.

At least I’d have my angle for why the three-peat didn’t happen, and it wouldn’t be the real GOAT’s fault.

Packers 27, Chiefs 24 (Super Bowl MVP: Jordan Love)

TL;DR Version: The Chiefs want the three-peat about as much as I want the three-peat. But I know that statistically the odds should be against it, and I just have this vision for Green Bay being the latest flash-in-the-pan NFC team. The story would be incredible of them preventing the three-peat to save the legacy of the 1965-67 team the way Don Shula’s Dolphins protected the perfect season from the 85 Bears.

If the three-peat doesn’t happen, I already know who I hope I can lay it at the feet of…

Also, my predictions might be totally fvcked if the Texans and Packers both flop this year. But at least one should deliver for me. Emphasis on should.