NFL 2024 Week 13 Predictions: Running Back Showdown Edition

This has already been an eventful Week 13 in the NFL with four games over Thanksgiving and Black Friday that led to the firing of head coach Matt Eberflus, a move you just had to make after one of the worst cases of clock management in NFL history.

But Antonio Pierce is also one of the worst coaches in close games, and he showed us why against the Chiefs on Friday when his team had a chance to pull off its own shocking upset. Of course, the people who know nothing about the rule book are going to complain about illegal shift being a dead-ball foul (it’s not), pretend a whistle was blown before the KC player recovered the ball (it wasn’t), and harp on a ref signaling false start as if we’ve never seen a line judge get something wrong, a conference corrects it, and they ultimately got the right call. Maybe just don’t snap the ball early and choke next time? Hell of a time for the Chiefs to finally get a takeaway though. I might need to fire up Part 2 of the Manning vs. Brady LOAT series after that one.

But that’s why we love the NFL. On paper, the Lions and Chiefs had easy games to get to 11-1, and yet both needed the worst coaches in close games to fumble badly (or literally) with the game on the line just to get the wins. Meanwhile, Dolphins-Packers was supposed to be the best game on paper, but it had the lowest drama and was easily won by the Packers. Of course, it’s an easy call that a Mike McDaniel team will come up small on the road in a big game like that. He’s now lost 12 or 13 straight road games to playoff teams (13 if Seattle qualifies this year; 12 if only Buffalo and Green Bay do).

That’s their thing. As for Sunday, we still have the big one in the late afternoon with the Eagles and Ravens, a game that will matter a lot for the MVP and OPOY races as well as division races and seeding.

This Week’s Articles

NFL Week 13 Predictions

I guess trusting the Chiefs to win a game by 13 points is insanity or else I could have been off to a perfect 4-0 ATS start to the week. At least the Chiefs held a 13-point lead in the third quarter. They just blew it in a matter of minutes to Aidan O’Connell. Christ, where is this season heading? At least we know swapping in a different left tackle could fix that problem, but what do they do about the defense? They’re getting shredded by some of the worst quarterbacks in the league on throws outside the numbers and down the field.

Anyways…

LAC-ATL: Justin Herbert has a pair of 20-17 wins over the Falcons in his career, and that sounds about right for what the Chargers are in 2024. Atlanta has been tough to figure out too, but I think this game will inevitably be close. But with the Chargers losing to the Ravens and having the Chiefs next week, I just don’t see them losing three in a row under Harbaugh here.

IND-NE: I was going to say it feels like eons ago since the Colts beat the Patriots, but of course there was the Bailey Zappe fake spike INT in Germany last year in a 10-6 game. While I still don’t trust the Colts with Anthony Richardson, that NE defense is bad enough that he could have a good game here and I’m going to trust the defense to keep the score down enough.

HOU-JAX: I wouldn’t advise betting real money on the Texans right now. Just something off with that team in many ways right now, and they already struggled to get the first win over this Jacksonville team, which is getting Trevor Lawrence back. But if they can hold him under 60% completions again, that’s his formula for losing.

SEA-NYJ: Does anyone realize the Seahawks haven’t scored 21 points in any of their last four games? I think the Jets can get Geno to make some mistakes and pull this one off coming out of the bye week. As much as we want to pretend Aaron Rodgers is playing terrible football this year, he’s serviceable enough to still get a win in a 20-17 type of game. Just don’t count on his kicker to make the last field goal.

PIT-CIN: This is where Mike Tomlin prefers to be: Counted out as a road underdog while people still hype the 4-7 Bengals going on a run. Sure, it could happen, but I’m going to trust the Steelers to bounce back in better weather, the Bengals are the one defense they actually moved the ball on when Matt Canada was the OC, and I’ll always trust Russell Wilson over Joe Burrow in a tight game. T.J. Watt also has to make up for a no-show in Cleveland.

TEN-WAS: I’m hedging with Titans covering and Commanders winning (maybe). Will Levis has been hitting some deep balls and this is a defense you can do that against. Still, I’m not betting on Calvin Ridley, who is on the banned list.

ARI-MIN: Gut says the Vikings can hit big plays against Arizona’s underwhelming defense, and you never know what to expect from Kyler Murray. Avoid a Sam Darnold pick parade and the Vikings should have this one, something you can say about most of their games this year.

TB-CAR: Panthers are playing better and you hate to trust any spread this big for the road team in a divisional game these days. But I think Mike Evans returns to the end zone and Bucky Irving has a good game. They won’t make Bryce Young look as good as the Chiefs did last week.

LAR-NO: Again, I’m going to keep taking the Saints in small spreads like this at home where they’re an underdog to a team that just got destroyed by Saquon Barkley. Imagine if Taysom Hill gashes them next. Plus, I’m still waiting for that first 4QC win for Carr in New Orleans. We have to get at least one in two seasons, right?

PHI-BAL: Here’s the big one with Lamar Jackson/Derrick Henry vs. Jalen Hurts/Saquon Barkley. I think you have to go with the Ravens at home as Lamar is 23-1 against the NFC, and Nick Sirianni hasn’t faced him yet. He played a Fangio defense last year (MIA) and threw 5 touchdowns. Threw for over 300 yards against Fangio’s Broncos too. Henry will be up for this one with the Barkley MVP hype that he hasn’t personally received this year. Also a bad week for Eagles to not have Darius Slay (concussion) and may not have DeVonta Smith either. We can say the Eagles are playing better defense than Baltimore this year, and I might trust Hurts more than Lamar at closing the game, but I don’t think you can bet against the Ravens at home in this one. Eagles have been beating up on non-playoff teams during this win streak.

SF-BUF: The SNF game that could have been epic, but we’ll see with these SF injuries. It does sound like Brock Purdy might play, so that’s a good thing. But the Bills are not a team that likes to win close, and they already have a 9-point win over the Chiefs this year. I think they can win by a touchdown here and drop the 49ers to 5-7. But hopefully the 49ers play with some real urgency in this one. Their playoff hopes are slipping every week and their blown leads have arguably more to do with that than the injuries, which have been terrible as well.

CLE-DEN: Not a great game to close the week. But I think Jameis can make enough throws to keep it close or get the backdoor cover.

2024 NFL Stat Oddity: Week 12

We knew Week 12 didn’t look good on paper. But sometimes those games produce some of the best endings, and that happened in the NFL’s early Sunday afternoon slate with arguably the best witching hour of the season. The Bears, Commanders, and Panthers were all in the process of pulling off insane comebacks to tie the Vikings, Cowboys, and Chiefs, and somehow, they all still lost.

In fact, Sunday’s only fourth-quarter lead change was in the wild Texans-Titans game with the mayo-loving Will Levis, and that’s not a reference to his ejaculation video.

We had our first double-digit favorite lose a game outright in 2024 with Washington (-10.5) falling in epic fashion to the Cooper Rush-led Cowboys. With Washington and Houston (-7.5) both losing Sunday, that makes 19 games this season where a team favored by at least 6 points lost. There were 23 games all last season, playoffs included, with 10 such upsets coming after Thanksgiving, so we should see that number exceeded this year. This ties 2020 (19) and is already more than 2022 (16), but it happened 31 times in 2021, so maybe it won’t be a record-setting season for upsets in that regard.

Still got the big one to come Monday night (Chargers-Ravens), and given we’re about to go two weeks without a team winning after trailing by double digits, that’d be a perfect game to end the drought. The question is which team do you trust more to blow the lead? The Chargers have history, but maybe things are different under this Harbaugh, and the Ravens have blown plenty of multi-score leads since 2022.

Looking forward to it, but so far, only 6-of-12 games have had a comeback opportunity this week.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Chiefs at Panthers: What Kind of Kansas City Team Are You?

Every Kansas City season in the Patrick Mahomes era has been a unique team that brought a different approach from the previous year. The offense was never more explosive than in 2018, and the defense was never stingier than it was in 2023. But the hope that the 2024 team would be the first truly balanced, elite Chiefs team on both sides of the ball looks to be a pipe dream at this point.

The offense keeps trending up, and the defense has just played its two worst games of the last two seasons in the last two weeks in Buffalo and Carolina. But it’s one thing to struggle with Josh Allen in your eighth matchup with him since 2020. Having to scrape out a 30-27 win against Bryce Young in another low-possession game where each team had eight drives is just painful and worrisome.

The good news is the Chiefs are 10-1 and have the best finisher in the league in Mahomes, who had no problem leading his fifth game-winning drive of 2024 (career high) with his legs again providing the pivotal play with a 33-yard scramble. He finished with 269 passing yards, 3 touchdowns, and 60 rushing yards as the offense looked as good as it has all year against a truly bad opponent.

The bad news is the Chiefs look like a team that is becoming fully dependent on its quarterback and skill players to lead the way to victory, and that style doesn’t win championships in the NFL.

You can’t trust the offensive line anymore. Never mind their gross share of the 10 penalties for 91 yards the Chiefs had, they also let one of the worst pass rushes in the league sack Mahomes 5 times, something he’s only had happen one other time in his career. His passing was sharp from start to finish, but those sacks prevented the Chiefs from ever leading by more than 14 points.

Then there’s the defense, which made Bryce Young look like a blossoming star with big throws down the field as he threw for 263 yards in the best game of his career. They only sacked him twice, and he was able to deliver a game-tying touchdown drive with 1:46 left. I think you have to be optimistic about Young for maybe the first time ever if you’re Carolina after this game.

Having said that, I do think the penalty on the Chiefs for the hard hit on the 2-point conversion was a bullshit call. He hit him too hard to knock the ball out. Why should that be a penalty? He didn’t lead with the head on it. Terrible call, which allowed the Panthers to run it in from the 1-yard line with Chuba Hubbard to tie the game at 27.

But that’s another game where the defense flat out choked with a chance to end the game or at least get the offense the ball back. It happened in Buffalo last week on the 4th-and-2 touchdown run, it happened in the last 6:00 against Denver where the 35-yard field goal would have lost the game for Kansas City, and it happened against Tampa Bay when they let Baker Mayfield tie the game late instead of shutting the door.

That’s a month of this defense not closing in crunch time, and now they’re allowing a lot of points and yards too. It’s not a good sign going forward. We can talk about injuries, but it’s not like the offense hasn’t had its share of those this season. They’re still improving with Noah Gray having another 2-touchdown game after having one in Buffalo too. Even Xavier Worthy didn’t do anything screwy this week as the Chiefs also had no turnovers in this game.

I think you can see after the 31-yard game-winning field goal by the new kicker that the Chiefs weren’t that thrilled about winning this game this way. Maybe that will become the identity of the 2024 Chiefs. Whether they’re playing the Bills or Panthers, you can count on the margin for error to be tiny, and they’re playing with fire on a weekly basis.

They may need to get burned a few more times before January to get it out of their system. But it looks like we can put the “elite defense” to rest in Kansas City. They had a good run since 2023, but it ended this month.

Cowboys at Commanders: Under Bettors in Absolute Shambles

What the hell was that? Cowboys-Commanders is the first game in NFL history where neither team scored more than 3 points by halftime and still ended with 60 combined points. The previous record was a 1979 game (Saints at Buccaneers) where a scoreless first half led to a 42-14 win for the Saints.

Needless scoring is a good way to describe a lot of this game, which was a defensive slugfest/offensive shitfest for over three quarters. I guess we can’t take a Kliff Kingsbury-coached offense seriously once November strikes and the tape roll gets that long, because I thought for sure the Commanders would look fresh and rejuvenated after their layoff following the loss to the Eagles. Also, Cowboys’ defense is another reason.

But this was an ugly game as it took Jayden Daniels taking off for a 17-yard touchdown run to get a touchdown on the board in the third quarter. But the Commanders missed an extra point, and while that particular point didn’t come back to haunt them since they converted a 2-point try later, it should have been a sign of things to come, and arguably a decision maker for coach Dan Quinn and Kingsbury.

The defense didn’t do the best job of stopping Cooper Rush from using CeeDee Lamb on short throws and putting together scores to take a 13-9 lead with 8:11 left. After the Commanders fumbled a completion, it was 20-9 on a short field touchdown with 5:08 left. That finally motivated Daniels to play with a no-huddle tempo and desperation, and he threw a touchdown to Zach Ertz with a 2-point conversion to make it 20-17 with 3:02 left.

But that’s when the game really took a turn as Turpin nearly lost the ball on the kickoff before regathering himself for a 99-yard return touchdown. Down 27-17 with 2:49 left, it looked like Daniels would do something miraculous after his kicker came through with a 51-yard field goal, the defense forced a three-and-out thanks to a timely sack, and he got his chance in a 27-20 game 33 seconds left.

He was 86 yards away from the end zone, but this isn’t unlike his Hail Mary drive against Chicago. The difference is this time he threw a good pass to Terry McLaurin that should have been a gain out to midfield, but McLaurin had the angle, the speed, and he kept it going all the way to the end zone for the touchdown with 21 seconds left. What a miracle score.

But now you have to ask should they go for 2? The Cowboys have a kicker (Brandon Aubrey) with huge range and they had one timeout left, but 21 seconds is pretty solid time to defend any drive there. I think there’s an argument they should have just gone for it, but they took the extra point for granted with a shaky kicker, and sure as shit, he failed them by missing it wide left.

I guess we can scratch off Daniels from the future LOAT list too. But then a short reprieve when the Cowboys got silly on the onside kick and returned it for a 43-yard touchdown instead of going down to end the game.

Why do you go down? To avoid what happened as Daniels completed a 6-yard pass to Ertz, then set himself up for a 2nd Hail Mary attempt this season. But this one was farther away from the end zone with 58 yards from the line of scrimmage, and Daniels didn’t step into it with quite as much room and power as he had against the Bears. The pass was shorter this time and it was ultimately intercepted to finally end this silly game at 34-26.

Pretty excruciating way to lose a historic game, but the Commanders are going to have to start games better, and I’m not sure what the fix is with the running game. Brian Robinson Jr. left early with an injury and Daniels ended up leading the team with 74 rushing yards. They need to find him a bit more help there.

Titans at Texans: Houston Really Does Have a Problem

How flawed is Houston right now? I’m using a clean f-word too for that sentence. Will Anderson Jr. was back in action and helped a pass rush to 8 sacks of Will Levis, who also threw a pick-six to fall behind late in the third quarter. The Titans even muffed a punt in the fourth quarter to gift the Texans 3 more points, Nico Collins had 95 yards and a touchdown, and the Texans still lost this game 32-27 at home.

I wish I could say this division game made no god damn sense, but the fact is it did. Painfully (Houston was my preseason pick to challenge Kansas City’s three-peat), it made sense.

Houston is the first team to blow 4 fourth-quarter leads this season. They have created a very unique defense where the pass rush is great at turning pressures into sacks, and sometimes they force a lot of incompletions too. Though, I’m starting to think playing Anthony Richardson twice and one major off-day from Josh Allen (9-for-30) heavily contributed to those completion rate numbers.

But if your quarterback can survive the pass rush of Houston, that secondary can’t hold up against wide receivers to save their lives. That’s how Will Levis was able to complete 18-of-24 passes for 278 yards and 2 touchdowns. Sure, he took 8 sacks and threw a pick-six to Jimmie Ward, but he still hung in there and made enough big plays, including a 70-yard touchdown pass that put the Titans ahead in the fourth quarter, 30-27.

Next, we have to believe that Tennessee may be a legitimately good defense that is hard to move the ball against as they were very stingy with yards this year. But their scoring numbers aren’t so hot because of the bad field position they’ve been done in by with turnovers (Levis!) and the special teams. That Detroit game especially killed their stats.

But in this game, they held Joe Mixon to 22 yards on 14 carries. Totally shut him down, and the Texans have been running it so well this year. That put more pressure on C.J. Stroud, and my preseason MVP pick has regressed in his sophomore season. He took 4 sacks, threw a couple of picks, and struggled with this defense.

However, he didn’t screw up on the crucial drive of a 30-27 game. In fact, Collins should have had another touchdown to take the lead, but much like Monday night against Dallas, it was called back for an illegal shift. Then a holding penalty killed the drive, but kicker Ka’imi Fairbairn should have been able to tie the game with a 28-yard field goal with 1:56 left, right?

Wrong. He was wide left, much like how he missed a 27-yard field goal against the Jets when the Texans trailed 14-10 on Halloween. It’s one thing for Fairbairn to miss a 58-yard field goal against Detroit, but this was a 27-yard field goal and it wasn’t blocked. Make the damn kick. I’m not going to act like Fairbairn has always been a choker, and he did make a 54-yard field goal in this quarter, but I do have articles dating back to his 2017 season where I said he was unproven and not reliable.

The only good news is the Titans had a bad drive after the missed kick, so Stroud got it back with 1:29 and one timeout left. The bad news is he was at his own 8, but it was still doable. However, he took a sack back to the 1-yard line, then it was a safety after Harold Landry sacked him in the end zone on 3rd-and-17 as he tried to make a play. That made it 32-27 and effectively game over after the onside free kick wasn’t recovered by Houston.

Just a brutal loss for Houston, which had a shot to start stacking wins. This is already the third time in Stroud’s career that his kicker missed a clutch field goal in a loss, and again, that’s not counting the 27-yard miss in the Jets game since they were down 14-10 at the time. Just not in his future to beat the LOAT, I guess.

But he needs to pick up his play. So does this defense under DeMeco Ryans, because they are frighteningly easy to hit big plays against. It’s been a problem all season.

One of many problems in Houston right now. They’re just lucky they play in the AFC South, but we’ve seen bigger collapses before from this division.

49ers at Packers: Brock Purdy Probably Worth a Few More Points Than Credited For

You can do a pretty good job finding the dud of the week in the NFC by finding which game Tom Brady is calling for FOX. The NFL clearly had high hopes for this one as the centerpiece of the late-afternoon slate, but the injuries for the 49ers are just not complying as they played this game without their top quarterback (Brock Purdy), edge rusher (Nick Bosa), and offensive lineman (Trent Williams). That’s to say nothing of not having their best wideout (Brandon Aiyuk) and defensive tackle (Javon Hargrave; out since Week 3) either.

It’s just looking like 2020 all over again for the 49ers where injuries destroy them. They had some chances to make this a game, and it certainly wasn’t all backup Brandon Allen’s fault, but it’s not like they lost 38-10 because of some huge quarterback disparity. Jordan Love only threw for 163 yards in this game. Yes, Christian Watson dropped a wide-open touchdown again, but even with that, the 49ers were missing tackles left and right on Josh Jacobs, who had 106 yards and 3 touchdowns on the ground.

Meanwhile, Christian McCaffrey is allergic to the end zone this year and he finished with just 31 yards on 11 carries. What ever happened to building the offense around the run and CMC? Oh, right. I guess they’ll blame that on not having Williams.

It was just a really poor performance on both sides of the ball for the 49ers, and if they can’t get those three key players back for Buffalo next week, don’t be surprised if the scoreboard looks like déjà vu on Sunday Night Football.

Cardinals at Seahawks: Mike Macdonald’s Defense Is Good Again?

I liked a low-scoring game, but Christ, 16-6? We’re back to late September when the Seahawks were 3-0, first place in the NFC West, and the question was is Mike Macdonald a legitimate Coach of the Year if he’s fixed this defense into playoff form, or has it just been the offensive schedule? Well, the losses started piling up against better opponents (Giants withstanding), and we were turned off by this defense, which suffered some injuries.

But after holding down the 49ers in San Francisco last week and owning the Cardinals, who had a bye, to just 6 points in this pivotal game, you have to say the defense is shaping into form again.

But the defining feature of these NFC West games have been blowing double-digit leads in the fourth quarter, and I swear it was going to happen again when Geno Smith threw an abysmal interception with a chance to add to his 13-3 lead to start the fourth. Keep in mind it was a third down too, so it’s not like he had to force it with a short field goal in his back pocket.

The Seahawks were only up 13-3 because of a horrific pick-six thrown by Kyler Murray on a fourth down in the third quarter. Again, just a lot of bad picks in the late-afternoon slate Sunday.

In a 13-6 game, it looked like another inaccurate throw by Geno was going to immediately lead to another pick and good field position, but it thankfully hit the ground. He shook that off by delivering his best drive of the game where he converted twice on third down. It led to a 50-yard field goal to make it 16-6 with just 1:56 left as the drive consumed 8:12. The rest of the NFC West – here’s looking at you, McVay and Shanahan – could learn from a drive like that by a team with a one-score lead.

That put the Cardinals into scramble mode, but the best they could do was a 47-yard field goal attempt with 15 seconds left. It was missed, so that was the game at 16-6.

It’s still a hard division to figure out as it may simply not have a good team this year, and the winner is just going to struggle at home in a wild card game against an NFC North runner-up like Green Bay or Minnesota.

But for now, Seattle is back on top and it was the defense that led the way this day.

Vikings at Bears: The Unexpected Passing Duel and One of the Best Failed Rally Attempts in History

I think it’s the rare game where both teams should feel pretty good about how they did with it ending 30-27 in overtime. It’s only the third game this season where both starting quarterbacks passed for over 300 yards.

Sam Darnold showed he can get through a road game without turning the ball over once, and still leading the team to 30 points despite Justin Jefferson having 2 catches for 27 yards. It was a huge day for Jordan Addison (162 yards) and T.J. Hockenson (114 yards).

Caleb Williams showed a lot of the playmaking ability that led to him being the No. 1 pick in the draft. The ball bounced his way a few times late, but he still made the plays to get two quick scoring drives to force overtime, and kicker Cairo Santos redeemed himself for last week’s block with a 48-yard field goal to go to overtime.

That late-game scenario was wild. I wanted to tweet about it but I was enjoying an early dinner during these frantic moments with the 1:00 PM games ending. I was going to say you could definitely argue the Vikings should go for a 4th-and-1 at the Chicago 7 at the 2:00 warning in a 24-16 game. If you get it, the game is over as Chicago was out of timeouts, and it was just 1 yard. If you don’t get it, you’re still up 8, ultimate cushion, and you have a long field to defend. Pretty envious situation.

But I was also going to add that if you can’t make a 26-yard field goal and defend an 11-point lead in 1:56, then maybe you don’t deserve to win. Well, I was wrong on that part, because the Vikings did botch the situation and still won the game.

They made the field goal to make it 27-16, but a long kick return put Williams at the Minnesota 40, a huge boost. They took their time to get the touchdown, but I like that more than the teams rushing out the field goal unit as we’ve seen too many times this year. I’d rather go for the touchdown, recover the onside kick, then complete one big pass to set up a FG, and that’s exactly what Chicago pulled off here.

Keenan Allen caught the 1-yard touchdown, D.J. Moore caught the 2-point conversion, and the Bears managed the hardest part of recovering an onside kick with 21 seconds left. One completion to Moore for 27 yards, a spike, and there was Sanots tying the game up from 48 yards.

That’s 11 points manufactured in the last 1:56, an incredible feat that I believe only two other teams have pulled off in a win since 2001, including the Bears in a game against Cleveland in 2001. The other such win was Joe Flacco leading the Jets back against Cleveland in 2022.

But as much as I want to say head coach Matt Eberflus did something incredibly stupid in overtime to lose another close game, this one was really on the rookie quarterback living (and in this case) dying by the sword. On the second play of overtime after taking the ball first, Williams scrambled for an eternity before taking an avoidable sack that lost 12 yards. Throw in a delay of game after that shock and it was 3rd-and-26, leading to a three-and-out. He has to be better than that, but at the same time, I get it. He was trying to make a play as he did several times in the game. But he really screwed that drive up.

While Darnold immediately took a sack on the other end to start his drive in a second-and-17 hole, he got the offense out of it with Hockenson and Addison gaining 20 yards on two completions. Jefferson made a 20-yard catch to avoid arguably the least effective game of his career, and then Hockenson delivered the kill shot with a 29-yard catch to the 9. Romo made the 29-yard field goal to win 30-27, and these days, you can’t take any kick for granted, so good on him for not Blair Walshing things.

Maybe it’s not the kind of win that will endear the Vikings (9-2) to skeptics, but I think it was a good, gut-check win on the road. The kind of game you hope that J.J McCarthy can handle in the future, because Williams is going to give the Vikings some problems and scares if this game is any sign of the future. He just has to work on getting better at knowing how to get rid of the ball and when to take his chances. But he’s a rookie and he should improve on that.

Eagles at Rams: Trench Warfare

These are two recent Super Bowl teams in the NFC who got there in large part because of the talent they built in the trenches on both sides of the ball. But the Eagles have restocked well in that regard while the Rams are still lacking on both sides, especially for protecting Matthew Stafford and replacing a legend like Aaron Donald on defense.

It was never more evident than on Sunday night when Stafford had little time to hold the ball and had to deliver in a hurry to Kupp and Nacua, who made plays but not nearly enough to keep up with the Eagles. Even without DeVonta Smith, the Eagles still have plenty of speed and weaponry to drop 37 points, and that starts with huge lanes through blocking for Saquon Barkley to speed through.

The first half was competitive with the Eagles only leading 13-7, but Barkley changed that in a hurry with a 70-yard touchdown run on the first play from scrimmage in the third quarter. He added a 72-yard run with 2:44 left when the game was already in hand at 30-14, but that helped push him to 255 rushing yards to go along with 47 receiving yards for a grand total of 302 scrimmage yards.

That will put him in the MVP conversation for sure, and it looks like his odds have already shot up from +6500 at FanDuel as of Friday to +650 now. Can have that conversation about whether he deserves it another time. The Eagles-Ravens game next week should be huge for awards this season.

Lions at Colts: Workman Like Win for the Lions

The Lions aren’t going to wow you with the numbers this week, but they got the job done in a 24-6 road win in Indy. Hard to argue with holding the ball for 37 minutes, going 9-of-15 on third down, no turnovers, and holding Anthony Richardson to 11-of-28 passing. Well, maybe he held himself to those numbers again as consistent offense has been an issue all season, but the Colts never strung together enough plays to put any of their nine drives in the end zone.

Punting four straight times out of the half had to sting, because despite the decent numbers I just posted for Detroit, you have to accept that as a solid day by your defense against an offense this potent. They did sack Jared Goff three times, they didn’t give up a run longer than 17 yards or a pass longer than 27 yards. You have to manage more than two field goals at home. Simple as that.

Patriots at Dolphins: Tua’s Whipping Boys

It still bugs me that Tua Tagovailoa is the quarterback who gets to start his career 7-0 against the Patriots, because he would have struggled like hell to do this against New England in their heyday. But he had a huge game here with over 300 yards and 4 touchdown passes as Jerod Mayo’s defense just can’t cover receivers well this year.

It was 31-0 before the Patriots finally scored a touchdown on a 4th-and-15 miracle from Drake Maye. Throw in a defensive touchdown after a backup running back fumbled, and it was only mildly interesting as a 31-15 game with 10:10 left. But Maye was intercepted the next time he had the ball, leading to a 34-15 final.

The Dolphins (5-6) are playing better than a lot of teams right now, but we’ll see if they can steal one in Green Bay this Thursday night to maybe give themselves a legitimate shot at running the table and getting in the tournament. That has to be their toughest test yet with the way the 49ers and Texans have fallen off.

Broncos at Raiders: The Sweep Is Complete

The Broncos went from an 8-game losing streak to the Raiders in the 2020s to a sweep this season after taking care of business on the road in a 29-19 win to improve to 7-5. The turning point was a horrible interception by Gardner Minshew in the third quarter while the Raiders led 13-9. That set up an 18-yard field for Bo Nix to exploit, and the Broncos never trailed the rest of the way.

Minshew broke his collarbone, a season-ending injury, and he was replaced by Desmond Ridder, who coughed up the ball deep in his own end with 2:21 left, setting up the Broncos for another short-field score on a field goal to make it 29-19. They even saved the cover (Broncos -5.5) by sacking Ridder from the 1-yard line on the final snap.

I’d say I don’t understand why the Raiders didn’t immediately call their last timeout and kick a short field goal on a 4th-and-1 before trying the onside kick, but this is Antonio Pierce’s team. Why would you expect competency?

Buccaneers at Giants: Can We Send the Giants and Jets to the UFL?

MetLife Stadium is where competitive, interesting football goes to die. I’m over the Jets and Giants – their existence, I mean. Daniel Jones is gone, and in the first game without him, the Giants fell behind 30-0 and were embarrassed by Baker Mayfield and company.

Tommy DeVito played worse than he did as a rookie, but at this point, why even try to win a game? Just tank, get a top pick, and fire the head coach while you’re at it. Nothing about this is working. Might as well find the next coach and quarterback who might be able to get a single target to Malik Nabers before halftime.

Next week: It’s Thanksgiving and the Dolphins-Packers game looks a lot better than it did a month ago, but you should know I’m backing the home team with a winning record, Mike McDaniel’s kryptonite. The Chiefs haven’t lost a home game since Christmas against the Raiders, so they better be ready for Desmond Ridder, Daniel Jones, or whatever the hell the Raiders start at quarterback on Black Friday. As for Sunday, got some interesting ones with Chargers-Falcons, Steelers-Bengals, and Eagles-Ravens at 4:25. The 49ers desperately need Brock Purdy to start SNF in Buffalo or that’s going to be a dud. Browns-Broncos is semi-interesting on MNF, concluding one long week of football.

NFL 2024 Week 12 Predictions: Harbaugh Bowl Edition

I feel some deja vu as it’s another weekend, I’m writing these predictions late at night, and my nose has been running since Thursday night. I went through the same thing for months last year where I often felt sick around the weekends and seemingly always tried to rush through these predictions.

So, I’m doing it again here, but I did just drop a 4 AM rant on Twitter (fvck off, Elon) about YAC, the Chiefs, and NextGenStats’ YAC Over Expected (YACOE) stat. Figured I did the data the other day and it didn’t share it anywhere, so I might as well get it out there before Sunday’s games.

Anyways, not a lot of good games this weekend, so it’s actually Monday night, the Ravens-Chargers Harbaugh Bowl, that I’m looking forward to the most here.

This Week’s Articles

NFL Week 12 Predictions

Taking Steelers -3.5 was one of my dumbest picks of the year as I warned about this being a typical “Steelers play down to the competition and probably lose” games under Tomlin, who coached one of his worst games ever. I should have at least said Browns +3.5 since you knew even if the Steelers won, it’d be by a FG at best. But they blew it. Baltimore rejoices.

Vikings-Bears: Nothing would surprise me but I’m just going to be content with the Vikings being better on both sides of the ball. And of course I think Eberflus is one of the worst coaches in NFL history in close games.

Bucs-Giants: Again, I was on the Tommy DeVito bandwagon for showing up Daniel Jones this week in his first start against a TB defense that gives up a lot of yards. But I’m cooling off that once I read that Malik Nabers missed Friday’s practice with a groin injury. That’s not good news for this passing game.

Patriots-Dolphins: I think Tua Tagovailoa will go to 7-0 against the Patriots, but I also think Drake Maye can keep it close enough for a cover against that defense.

Titans-Texans: Another division game, I just think the Texans can start rolling offensively with Collins and Mixon together, and I like the defense to sack Will Levis 5+ times and force some turnovers too.

Cowboys-Commanders: Yep, division games can be tricky, but I just think the Cowboys are mailing it in, Cooper Rush is trash, and Jayden Daniels will look sharper with a few extra days to rest since TNF last week. They’ve blown out several teams already this year too.

Chiefs-Panthers: The Chiefs haven’t really blown anyone out since Chicago last year, the Taylor Swift debut game. Sure, it should happen in Carolina, but with the way Chuba is running it, the way the Chiefs have played some spotty defense the last month, and the way the offense is always good for a mistake to deny itself points — throw in the backdoor cover too — and I’m still going with the classic Chiefs win but don’t cover.

Lions-Colts: I see potential for a 30-20 game where Anthony Richardson makes plays but just can’t keep up with that Detroit machine in the end.

Broncos-Raiders: Okay, that’s 7 division games this week. The Raiders were unbeatable for the Broncos in 2020-23, but I think Denver pulls off the sweep here. It was 34-18 last time and Bo Nix is playing with more confidence now.

49ers-Packers: I was so tempted to take SF +5.5, but it’s not just Brock Purdy being replaced by Brandon Allen. Nick Bosa is banged up and out too. I think even Trent Williams has something going on this week, so it truly is an injury-ravaged season for the 49ers at 5-5, and a game like this could squash them for the wild card, leaving the NFC West title as their only playoff path. Bad timing for a Purdy injury. Of course, a Jordan Love pick parade can turn this one in SF’s favor, but I think he protects the ball and makes up for the playoff loss the best he can with a win here.

Cardinals-Seahawks: Could actually turn out to be the best game or at least the best 4Q on Sunday. Late slate anyway. I’m going to take Seattle at home to edge them out with perhaps another GWD by Geno. That’s how these games have gone in the NFC West this year. Someone makes a 4QC. But both are capable and I’m not surprised it’s the smallest spread of the week.

Eagles-Rams: Saw some splits that made me want to take the Rams, but I just think the Eagles have too many weapons for this bland defense to stop, and the Eagles have the secondary this year to deal with Nacua and Kupp better. Even last year they shut them out after halftime with that bad Philly defense.

Ravens-Chargers: Read my Week 12 picks for a parlay and game script for this one. I think the Ravens make up for last week and get a win in a 23-20 or 27-24 type of game, and I think a little Chargering returns to completion this time on the other side after nearly giving it up to the Bengals last week. But it should be a good one.

2024 NFL Stat Oddity: Week 11

I hyped Week 11 as the best Sunday in the NFL this season, and it mostly delivered on that front. The three biggest games were all within one score in the fourth quarter, and it was certainly a pivotal day as Kansas City’s 15-game winning streak ended, and there’s a very good chance the Bills won’t have to worry about going on the road in the playoffs to play teams they’ve lost to like the Ravens and Texans.

But it was a strong week for home-field advantage in big games as the Eagles (Thursday night), Steelers, Bills, and Chargers all won at home in their key matchups. I know home-field advantage is only around 53% this season, which is better than the pandemic years, but it’s still below the usual standard of 57-58%. But I do think you’d still rather be at home than not, and I think it’s especially important for these teams still trying to break through the Kansas City stranglehold in the AFC and get to the Super Bowl like the Ravens, Bills, Steelers, etc.

We had eight games with a comeback opportunity, no team has come back from a 10-point deficit to win this week, but God knows the Chargers tried to give one away. We also had a walk-off blocked field goal for the second week in a row, so that’s wild. Pretty bad week for some kickers who were very recently considered among the best in the league, including Jake Elliott (Eagles), Justin Tucker (Ravens), and Evan McPherson (Bengals).

Still one game to go Monday night, but I think a healthier Houston team does give the AFC a legitimate six-team race for the playoffs. Kansas City’s three-peat path has gotten harder. But on the bright side, they can forget the undefeated talk. They weren’t going to win 26 games in a row to get a three-peat, and while that would be the ultimate achievement in NFL history, I can’t even imagine the pressure that’d leave on the team each week. Plus, they may not have to worry about trying to win in Denver in Week 18 against a Sean Payton (Mr. Bountygate) team that might need to make the playoffs with a win.

But really, this season might just come down to seeing if anyone can make the Lions pay for a Jared Goff pick parade by scoring enough points to beat Detroit in the Super Bowl.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Chiefs at Bills: Mahomes vs. Allen Chapter VIII – Josh Takes Manhattan

The first Kansas City loss since last Christmas is sure to delight many, but I’m not sure it makes that big of an impact on the season. No magical “blueprint” was shown on how to beat the Chiefs, and if it was, hardly any team but Buffalo is equipped to execute it. And I’m not convinced Buffalo can win this game in January, which could still very well be in Arrowhead as the Chiefs are still in first place, the same way it did here.

I’ll get to the Chiefs later, but let’s start by focusing on what Buffalo did well. They clearly care a lot about this rivalry, and we’ve joked (while probably being accurate) that Kansas City has been their Super Bowl in the regular season for four years now. Maybe five if you count the first meeting back in 2020.

But they clearly played a sharp game, and I think Josh Allen has seen Steve Spagnuolo’s defense and blitzes so much every year that he’s an expert at picking them apart. He knows when to run, when to get rid of it quickly, and when to hold it for the big play. That doesn’t mean he always executes, but he didn’t take a sack in this game, and he was money on a lot of big third downs, which is usually a must to beat the Chiefs. Buffalo was 9-of-15 on third down and that doesn’t include a huge penalty on a third-and-9 late in the third quarter on a drive that led to a touchdown and 23-14 lead.

But you saw Amari Cooper chip in a 30-yard one-handed catch on the first third down. Khalil Shakir held onto a clutch 3rd-and-8 pass even when he took a big shot at the end of it. Curtis Samuel played well as they got a touchdown on a pick play. The running backs couldn’t really get anywhere, but when it was 4th-and-2 at the Kansas City 26 with 2:27 left in a 23-21 game, there was never any doubt the Bills were going for it and who they were going to let make the play. Allen took off for 26 yards, and while I’m not sure I agree with Jim Nantz that it’s the play of the year, it’s a candidate as he finished the play for a touchdown to make it 30-21 with 2:17 left.

As I expected after another Lamar egg in Pittsburgh, Allen’s performance has him as the new MVP favorite (+150 at FanDuel) as the Bills go into their bye week. It was hardly his best game against the Chiefs as I’m sure he’d like to have the interception on a fourth down back, but he scored 30 points on 9 drives against a team that hadn’t given up more than 27 points in the last 30 games. That streak is toast as are many for the Chiefs.

It’s the first loss for the Chiefs since Christmas 2023, but every Kansas City loss is Christmas for members of the Tom Brady cult who have nothing else to celebrate these days. I just want to highlight one of them from Twitter here by explaining in detail why I think it’s silly to pin this loss on the quarterback as the Chiefs have far more pressing issues.

First, there’s a reason Mahomes had a decent 63.3 QBR in this game despite throwing two interceptions and not registering a single rush attempt when we know QB runs inflate QBR more than anything.

It’s because Mahomes didn’t make many mistakes in this game.

Yep, he was intercepted on his first dropback of the day, a bad decision to force a throw instead of taking a sack. But like half of his picks this year, it came early with the maximum time to make up for it.

But this would be the 7th game this season where the Chiefs only had 8 or 9 offensive possessions in a game, so it does make every turnover mean a little more when you just don’t get that many chances with the ball because of the way you play ball-control offense and the way the defense isn’t as good at getting stops (turnovers or otherwise) as people pretend.

A problem not going away for the Chiefs that could ultimately lead to their undoing is the offensive tackle play. That led to some sacks and pressure in this game, which ended their second drive too. But Mahomes threw a touchdown to Xavier Worthy, who had a huge first quarter. However, instead of this being the turning point game for him, he did the same thing he did against Tampa Bay and didn’t get his feet in on what should have been a 30-yard play. Could the throw have been a little better? Yes, but it was in bounds enough that a competent receiver makes the catch. This can’t keep happening, and that killed another drive as the pressure came afterwards for another 3-and-out.

Mahomes followed Allen’s pick with a touchdown drive on a short field, but his defense still gave up a field goal to trail 16-14 at halftime. There was no scoring in the third quarter, but someone please let me know where I’m supposed to be criticizing Mahomes.

The Chiefs only had the ball four times after halftime. Was it Mahomes who got stuffed on a 3rd-and-1 run for another three-and-out? No, that was Kareen Hunt and the line. When Mahomes set up a 3rd-and-1 at midfield on a scramble, a holding penalty brought it back to 2nd-and-14, DeAndre Hopkins couldn’t come down with a good throw while being defended well, and that was another punt. I think without the holding penalty, Mahomes probably has a great shot of leading a go-ahead drive on this one.

Suddenly, the game’s in the fourth quarter and the Chiefs are down 23-14. Mahomes put together one of the team’s best drives this season as they never even faced a third down, avoided any penalties, and he threw his third touchdown to make it 23-21 with 7:53 left. Game on. Why they don’t play with urgency and tempo like that more often is beyond me.

But that’s usually the spot where the defense makes a play. Gets the ball back or at least holds them to a field goal. That’s also the spot where Allen usually makes some mistake like forcing deep balls when he shouldn’t, but none of that happened this time. He ran for a 26-yard touchdown on fourth down instead, and now it’s 30-21 with 2:17 and you need a miracle.

Again, I think Mahomes would have got a score (field goal or touchdown) here had it not been for yet another holding penalty to wipe out an 18-yard scramble to the Buffalo 34. Instead of converting, that made it 4th-and-13, and at that point you’re forcing a throw down the field to Kelce, who just stopped after one of the worst games of his career and watched the defender make the game-ending pick. But the game was already lost before that unless you think they’re recovering an onside kick and scoring again.

So, you tell me where I’m supposed to be finding so much fault on his play. A pick on the first play didn’t lose the game, and they were already losing by two scores when the last play happened. But I guess if you ignore every single thing in between those two plays, it was a pretty awful day for Mahomes.

A loss isn’t the worst thing in the world for a team that needs to be humbled sometimes. They have issues that need to be fixed. When the NBC crew did the halftime highlight for this game, all they mentioned was Mahomes’ weapons. Not a whiff about the offensive line or the defense not getting enough stops, especially with the game in the balance these last few weeks.

I actually think they have too many weapons in a way, and that Andy Reid is doing a poor job of trying to use everybody he can instead of finding who he can trust. A week ago against Denver, Kelce (8) and Hunt (7) had 15 catches between them. In this game, they had a combined 2 catches for 8 yards, and Hunt wasn’t even targeted. Oh, they still completed passes to 11 different receivers, including an eligible lineman, but I’m not sure that accomplished the right goals if Xavier Worthy is the only player who broke 30 receiving yards.

I’m not even sure bringing Pacheco and Hollywood Brown into the mix later is a good thing if they can’t seem to figure out how to properly use what they have. That touchdown drive in the fourth quarter showed how well they can still move the ball when they need to. They need to tap into that, because the days of an elite defense look to be over in Kansas City. Going to have to start scoring more points in games like this.

They don’t need an elite defense to win a Super Bowl, but they aren’t winning 34-30 games on the road in January with the way they’re playing this year. Last January, this defense was about to ruin the repeat by giving the Bills 24 points on just 5 drives. It took a couple of run stuffs and good fortune with Buffalo’s receivers not hauling in some deep balls to turn the tide that day, including a missed field goal by Tyler Bass.

On Sunday, the Bills didn’t make those mistakes, and Allen got the best of them again as he did in 2021, 2022, and 2023. We’ll see if it translates to January should they meet again. While the Chiefs will look different in that matchup, so will the Bills, and we’ll just have to see who makes the decisive plays that day.

Ravens at Steelers: The Rivalry Lives Up to the Hype

Sure, I liked the under, but this was even more on brand for Ravens-Steelers than I imagined. The 18-16 score is kind of Mike Tomlin’s jam as he won two playoff games (2015 Bengals and 2016 Chiefs) by that score, and this is third time in the last decade he’s won a game with six field goals and no touchdowns. The rest of the league has three in that time.

But you have to laugh at how these teams will play the same kind of “neither to 20, first to bleed loses” games no matter who the quarterbacks are and what their offenses are like. The Ravens had a high-flying offense this year and it didn’t matter. The Steelers were scoring a lot and moving the ball well under Russell Wilson and it didn’t matter.

These teams made each other fight for every yard, and it wasn’t pretty, but it was damn entertaining, and once again the Steelers made more plays. The Ravens started the game on the wrong foot with a Derrick Henry fumble, something you rarely see. Isaiah Likely also coughed up a bad fumble before halftime deep in his own end, Justin Tucker is apparently washed as he missed two makeable field goals, the Ravens had 12 penalties, and rookie linebacker Payton Wilson stole an interception from the hands of Justice Hill in the fourth quarter. The Ravens were incredibly sloppy in this game.

That’s not to say the Steelers were sharp. While they held the ball for over 36 minutes, they were 4-of-16 on third down and couldn’t finish in the end zone even once. While Russell Wilson threw a handful of passes away due to pressure, he picked the worst moment ever to force a terrible throw in the end zone, which was intercepted with 9:23 left when the Steelers could have kicked a short one to take an 18-10 lead. Fortunately, the Payton Wilson pick happened a few plays later and the Steelers eventually did go up 18-10. But this was Wilson’s worst game at quarterback this season, and it’s a good thing the defense had his back.

But on their 12th and final possession, the Ravens finally put together some third-down conversions and completions to wide receivers. The drive ended with a Zay Flowers touchdown with 1:06 left, but the Ravens needed a 2-point conversion to tie. You just knew they would keep the ball in Jackson’s hands, but it was still surprising to not see Henry on the field. I’m not sure the Ravens really knew what they were trying to do on the play, and Jackson was forced to throw it up for grabs before taking a sack:

Jackson is now 5-for-12 on 2-point conversions in the fourth quarter (2-for-8 when trailing) in his career. That’s why I would have liked to see them score in Kansas City on opening night since you know they were going to go for the victory with a 2PC, and you know they’d go to Jackson as they always do. But it’s hard to say their success rate is reassuring in these moments, and this reminded me of the 2021 game in Pittsburgh where T.J. Watt got to Jackson on the game-deciding 2PC in a 20-19 win for the Steelers.

But the game wasn’t over since the Ravens had all three timeouts left. The Steelers brought in Justin Fields on 2nd-and-9 and had a good call with the QB keeper, except he made an awful decision when he slid too early and was a yard short, bringing up 3rd-and-1 instead of clinching the win. That slide rule is something that coaches need to teach these quarterbacks better. It’s over once you start the sliding motion, and there was enough room for Fields to win the game there.

The Steelers had some major issues with 1 yard to go Sunday, but with the game on the line, they gave it to Najee Harris and he grinded it out for the win. The Steelers are now 8-1 against the Ravens since 2020 and most of them have looked like some variation of this.

It’s a tough loss for the Ravens since it’s so hard to say “we’ll get them next time” when seemingly each meeting looks something on the order of this. If the playoffs started today, it would be Steelers at Ravens in the wild card round too in the 6-3 matchup. That’s not ideal for the Ravens nor is being a wild card team in general.

But in one of my favorite stats this year, the Ravens have already lost to all the same teams or quarterbacks they lost to last year (Gardner Minshew, Browns, Steelers, and Chiefs).

A great win for the Steelers (8-2), but I think it’s also a reminder of why they excel against the Ravens and struggle so much with teams like Buffalo and Kansas City. They have to score more against those quarterbacks and they just struggle to stop them better since they are more decisive passers than Jackson, who was again looking confused by this defense in his fifth meeting with them. He was far from the only problem as the Ravens shit the bed in a variety of ways, but his play against this defense doesn’t inspire much confidence.

Bengals at Chargers: Jim Harbaugh’s Memorable Island Game Debut Teases Chargering Before Winning the Game

Let me just paste in my framing of this game from Friday night’s predictions:

Bengals-Chargers: I see this game going one of two ways. It could be a return to Chargering for Jim Harbaugh’s home debut in prime time, meaning a game where everything goes great for a half or three quarters, then they implode and lose to a hungry Cincinnati team that has been close most weeks and needs to avoid going 4-7. But the Bengals also are bad at winning close games like that. So, maybe it’s just a validation that the Chargers are different under Harbaugh, and he’s going to frustrate Joe Burrow with his defense that still hasn’t allowed more than 20 points in any game, and Justin Herbert is going to carve this defense up with his new receivers.

Yep, it was Chargering, but things are different under Jim Harbaugh, so the team still escaped with a 34-27 win. It was also classic Bengals, putting up some stats and making a rally effort only to come up short again in a close game to fall to 4-7. Their brand might be the only brand that can outdo Chargering right now.

Funny how some games play out exactly like you expected. I knew better than to say anything definitive about the Chargers when they were up 27-6 in the third quarter and Justin Herbert was shredding that defense. I’ve seen this movie too many times. Before you know it, the Chargers are giving up touchdowns on fourth downs, Herbert is fumbling after the ball hits a defender’s shin, Burrow is getting short fields, and just like that it’s tied at 27.

But then I’ve seen this before from the Bengals too often as well. You get a chance to take the lead and probably win the game, and you start misfiring on throws. You start getting stuffed in the backfield, dropping passes, penalties, etc. The kicks are longer, and Evan McPherson is not as good as he was a couple of years ago. He misses from 48 yards with half a quarter to go, he misses from 51 with 1:48 left after a couple more Burrow incompletions didn’t make it easier.

But it’s not like the Chargers made it look easy. Herbert flirted with some dangerous throws, missed some wide-open throws, and it ultimately took six possessions before the Chargers finally added to their 27 points with another score. I was starting to think this one was headed for a 27-27 overtime tie or a defense to win it on a return touchdown.

But with 45 seconds left at his own 16, Herbert finally stepped up with some great throws to Ladd McConkey for 55 yards, and J.K. Dobbins finished it off with a 29-yard touchdown run that I’m not sure he really expected to score on as he said he was. You also see why teams like to go down there and kick the field goal, because after scoring with 18 seconds left, the Bengals still had time to set up a very realistic Hail Mary at the end.

I’m not saying Dobbins screwed up by scoring the touchdown that was there, but it’s not the ideal way to finish a game like this and we saw it play out. But the Chargers were able to bat down the Hail Mary and hang on for the 34-27 win. Their 7-3 start ties 2018 for their best 10-game start in the last 15 years.

Watching these teams make so many mistakes when it was 27-27 is a good reminder of why it’s hard to take either seriously for the postseason. But by winning this game, the Chargers have a great shot of being there while being a problem for any team as long as they avoid Chargering as much as possible.

But the difference is they didn’t lose this game like they have in the past. That has to count for something.

Packers at Bears: Walk-Off Blocks Are Pretty Cool

Matt LaFleur was 10-0 against the Bears with every win by at least 7 points. He’s 11-0 now, but this was definitely the hardest win yet. The Packers could not get the Bears off the field on third down that often (9-of-16) as the new offense in the first game after firing Shane Waldron had success. They also held the ball for nearly 37 minutes, so the Packers were just 1-of-5 on third down and Jordan Love only threw 17 passes.

But Love still found Christian Watson on some big plays, resulting in 150 yards on 4 catches. Love was also in a scrambling mood in the fourth quarter, and his legs got him in the end zone with 2:59 left. But it was only a 20-19 lead after the 2-point conversion fail, which feels like every 2PC is failing these days in the NFL.

That opened the door for the Bears to win on a field goal, and for all the justified criticism Caleb Williams has been receiving, this was a huge moment for him. He delivered too as he shook off a pair of sacks at the two-minute warning and overcame a 3rd-and-19 situation.

But let’s not forget that the Bears are horrible in close games under Matt Eberflus. I can understand wanting to be a little conservative at the Green Bay 30 with 35 seconds and one timeout left when your rookie takes a lot of sacks. One there could be deadly.

But to just run for 2 yards and accept the fate of a 46-yard field goal with the so-so Cairo Santos as your kicker? I’m not a fan of that. Sure enough, the Packers pulled off the 46-yard block to win the game just like the Chiefs did to Denver last week.

That has to be one of the worst ways the Bears have ever lost to their bitter rival. But I have to say I like this if we’re going to see endings like this more often. Kickers were getting too good that you just have to pray they’d miss on anything under 50 yards. But instead of hoping the kicker chokes, why not do something about it and step up with a game-deciding block? I’m cool with that.

It also doesn’t hurt that Packers-Chiefs was my preseason Super Bowl pick and they’ve been the biggest beneficiaries of making these blocks this season. But the key thing is they made the block happen. They earned it.

Seahawks at 49ers: Some Wunderkind

Does anyone want the NFC West this year? Another game and another blown lead by the 49ers. But the 20-17 final is misleading as this was a low-possession game, so it was more offensive than that score suggests. But just when you think the 49ers are going to win after taking a 17-13 lead on a touchdown pass to Jauan Jennings, they give up another game-winning drive to Geno Smith after already doing so this season to Matthew Stafford (Rams) and Kyler Murray (Cardinals).

Geno was 0-6 against this team since 2022, but after his run game failed him on a 4th-and-1 earlier in the quarter, his defense got him another chance with 2:38 left, and his 80-yard game-winning drive was as good as any in his career. He had just 18 seconds and no timeouts left when he made the bold decision to scramble for the end zone, and I’m surprised he made it the full 13 yards without getting blown up and ending the game short of the end zone.

Awful defense. But remember when the 49ers were going to get better with Christian McCaffrey back? Their five longest plays in this game gained 12-to-22 yards, Jennings had four of them, and a Brock Purdy scramble for 13 yards was the other one.

The 49ers (5-5) are not a serious threat anymore. Not like this.

Jaguars at Lions: Nearly Offensive Perfection

Look, if the Jaguars want to fire Doug Pederson after this, I’m not going to say they are wrong. It’s almost certainly going to happen after the season, so if they want to use him as the scapegoat for one of the worst defensive performances in NFL history, then go ahead. It’s not like they were going to win this game with Mac Jones as the biggest underdog (+13.5) of the 2024 season, but Christ, get a stop on the other side of the ball.

Jared Goff went from throwing 5 picks last week to leading 7 straight touchdown drives in this game. He had a perfect passer rating on 29 attempts with 412 yards, so that’s a huge stat line. The only other quarterback I know to go a perfect 7-for-7 at leading touchdown drives was Josh Allen in the 2021 playoffs against New England.

The Lions took Goff out after the seventh touchdown, they scored a field goal on their eighth drive with Hendon Hooker, then they ran out the clock (all 6:45 of it, mind you) on their 52-6 win on the ninth drive.

That’s pretty close to offensive perfection. They won’t get as much credit as Buffalo given the lousy opponent and it wasn’t a playoff game, but this is up there for pure domination. The Lions had 38 first downs and 645 yards. They were 6-of-10 on third down and 3-of-3 on fourth down.

The Lions shouldn’t have an easier game the rest of the season, so this might be their most impressive form yet, but it’s a strong game from a historic perspective.

Colts at Jets: Anthony Richardson’s First Comeback Against a Familiar Foe

In his rookie season in 1998, Peyton Manning had a big moment when he led the first fourth-quarter comeback win of his career against the Jets, who had a great team that year. Well, Anthony Richardson won’t ever touch Manning’s legacy, which I can say with confidence, but he had a much-needed performance against the Jets after getting the starting job back from Joe Flacco.

Richardson was able to complete 20-of-30 passes for 272 yards, he only had one turnover, and he came back from a 24-16 deficit in the fourth quarter with a couple of touchdown drives. He ran in the go-ahead score with 46 seconds left and the defense was able to make it hold up for a 28-27 win.

For Aaron Rodgers, it was a brutal start again after falling behind 13-0. They had the lead late once again, but the Jets blew their third lead of the season. There was enough time to set up a winning kick, but we know those haven’t gone well for them this season either.

What has? The Jets are 3-8 and going into the bye week in one of the most embarrassing seasons in team history, which says a lot given their history.

Falcons at Broncos: Unexpected Blowout of the Week

Whoops, I thought this would be a 1-to-7 point game and it ended up being one of the biggest blowouts of the season with Denver taking it 38-6. I guess we can’t take it for granted that every Kirk Cousins game is supposed to be close as this was already the third time they’ve had a game decided by 18+ points this year.

But this was just an ass-kicking from Denver, and any concern of how they’d bounce back from the upsetting Kansas City loss was wiped away early with Bo Nix having his best game yet with 307 yards and 4 touchdowns on 28-of-33 passing. That’s some Drew Brees type of numbers.

The Falcons (6-5) are still in decent shape in the NFC South, but they might just be fodder for an NFC North runner-up this year. As for the Broncos, they’re eying the No. 7 seed and possibly better. It’s a hard team to figure out but they have had some impressive wins already, and this was another for sure.

Raiders at Dolphins: Good Tight End At Least

Wasn’t expecting the pinnacle of tight end play to come from this game, but Brock Bowers (13-126-1) and Jonnu Smith (6-101-2) showed up for their teams in this 34-19 win for the Dolphins.

In fact, Smith’s long second touchdown put the game away just when it looked like the Raiders could maybe get the ball back late in a 24-19 game. Look, the Raiders need a new coach and quarterback in 2025, but at least they have a heck of a weapon in Bowers. Not doing anything for their complete inability to run the ball, but he can play.

Browns at Saints: Taysom Hill Carrying Derek Carr Again

I have no clue why the Browns (-1.5) were a road favorite in New Orleans, but someone underestimated Tayson Hill having one of the greatest games in NFL history. The Stormin’ Mormon ran the ball 7 times for 138 yards and 3 touchdowns, which is already one of the craziest stat lines in NFL history. Only 21 players are known to have scored 3 rushing touchdowns on no more than 7 runs in a game, but Roland Hooks (1979 Bills) is the only one known to have surpassed 45 rushing yards as he had 70 in a game where he scored 4 touchdowns on 5 carries. But Hill blew that away with 138 yards, including 33 yards on what was technically the game-winning touchdown to break a 14-14 tie with 13:22 left. Hill later iced it with a 75-yard touchdown run with 2:26 left.

Just on that alone it’s a historic stat line. But Hill also caught 8-of-10 targets for 50 yards to lead the team in catches. He completed 1-of-2 passes for 18 yards and an interception, so maybe leave those plays to Derek Carr. But on top of all of that, Hill had a 42-yard kickoff return. That’s 230 all-purpose yards. Maybe 248 if we’re counting the pass completion.

What the hell? The funny part is this is Derek Carr’s second game-winning drive with the Saints, and he was 0-for-3 by success rate to start the quarter before Hill took off for the winning touchdown in a game they’d win by 3 touchdowns. Last year, Carr’s only game-winning drive was a touchdown pass thrown by Hill to break a 17-17 tie with the Bears.

So, that’s two game-winning touchdowns where Hill did the heavy lifting instead of Carr. But what a game for one of the most unique players in NFL history.

Also, I’m absolutely stunned that Jameis Winston passed for 395 yards and the Browns only scored 14 points despite not committing a single turnover. They ended up missing two field goals and turned it over on downs twice, so that at least helps make some sense of that one.

But Hill’s uncanny success? It’s hard to explain. Marquez Valdes-Scantling scoring another big touchdown for the Saints after the Chiefs didn’t want him back and the Bills couldn’t wait to get rid of him is also another strange development with the 2024 Saints.

Maybe the Pope did bless them. Does the Pope support LDS? I don’t know.

Vikings at Titans: Your Standard Ho-Hum Win for a Second-Place 8-2 Team

The Vikings continued their tour of the AFC South, but compared to last week’s 12-7 squeaker in Jacksonville, this was a much more comfortable, low-drama 23-13 win against the Titans. Neither team could run the ball a lick, but Minnesota limited the turnovers to a bad pitch to start the game, shook off Will Levis hitting a 98-yard touchdown pass in the third quarter, and didn’t give up any other touchdowns the whole game while also sacking him 5 times.

Rams at Patriots: Defense Closes for McVay Again

I swear Sean McVay’s Rams can never just close games with the four-minute offense. Even after taking a 28-13 lead into the final quarter, it was still 28-22 in the final minutes as Drake Maye gave them a lot to handle with a 30-of-40 passing day for nearly 300 yards. Another first down could have iced this one, but the Rams ended up punting from the New England 35, which is sadly on brand for McVay in these moments.

Fortunately, the defense had his back as they picked off Maye on a 3rd-and-13 desperation heave with 1:47 left to ice the win and get the team back to .500. A sack coming out of the two-minute warning just blew that drive up for the Patriots, but what’s happened to the defense in New England? That’s supposed to be Jerod Mayo’s specialty and his unit was carved up again by Stafford for four touchdowns from an offense that couldn’t get in the end zone once on Monday night against Miami.

Next week: Week 12 looks like that rare week where you’re waiting for Monday night (Ravens-Chargers Har-Bowl) for the best game. But I can see they didn’t have much left for a follow-up to Week 11 as six teams are on a bye and it really shows. I guess Steelers-Browns could be decent on Thursday night if the Steelers bring their usual “small game” approach to it and Jameis shows up dealing. 49ers-Packers has lost luster but might be able to save the Sunday afternoon slate. Not very intrigued by Rams-Eagles on Sunday night. But a light week before a football overload on Thanksgiving is not a bad idea to be honest. They can’t all be loaded.   

NFL 2024 Week 11 Predictions: Epic Sunday Edition

Week 11 in the NFL was always the Sunday to circle in the 2024 season. Sure, there’s that stretch in Weeks 16-17 (12/21 to 12/25) that I wrote about in multiple offseason articles as the key pressure points for everything from the MVP race to the No. 1 seed in the AFC, and that still should be true when the Chiefs play the Texans and Steelers in a span of 5 days, and we’ll also see the Ravens play the Steelers and Texans.

But those games are taking place on Saturday and Wednesday. As far as Sundays go, Week 11 is the big one that could be decisive in the final playoff standings. We’ve already seen the pivotal NFC East game on Thursday night with the Eagles taking a considerable lead over the Commanders. Next, we’ll see a similar AFC North game between the Ravens and Steelers, the Chiefs-Bills showdown with No. 1 seed implications, and Bengals-Chargers is big for the wild card race.

At least one of these epic games should be fantastic and memorable, but we’ll see. We’ve been bamboozled before.

This Week’s Articles

NFL Week 11 Predictions

I had the Eagles winning Thursday night, but I have to say I’m disappointed in Washington. I don’t know if the ribs are still bothering Jayden Daniels or what, but that was his worst game of the season. He couldn’t hit anything over 5 yards, and I don’t know what happened to the run defense in the fourth quarter, or why they didn’t just kick a field goal when they had a chance to go up 13-12. Just a bad game and not a good feeling to lose two games in five days.

Let me do the big games first.

Ravens-Steelers: Pittsburgh is 7-1 in this rivalry since 2020, and they’ve been within one score (or better) in 16 of 18 meetings, so there is almost no recent history of the Steelers losing convincingly to Baltimore. This rivalry loves producing a close finish no matter which quarterback is playing for either team. This is a rare case where QB1 for each team is playing, but the Steelers have been one of Lamar Jackson’s kryptonite teams to go along with the Chiefs and the postseason in general. He hasn’t played them much (4 starts), but the Steelers should be better prepared for this offense than most of the Baltimore schedule. You see the way they eat up NFC teams each year. That shouldn’t happen here.

But I understand why the Ravens are favored as their offense has topped 20 points every week. They’ve been close in every loss. The Steelers are a little scattershot with the offense, but you have to think Russell Wilson can hang in there and deliver some deep balls against that secondary as I expect big things from George Pickens. But it should come down to the usual things like turnovers and who can finish the job. I actually think Wilson has a great shot at delivering another game-winning drive this week as we know the Ravens have blown many leads since 2022. But I will hedge it a bit and take the Ravens to win, Steelers to cover. If Gardner Minshew and Jameis can beat this team…But I expect a battle either way.

Chiefs-Bills: I’m actually surprised the Chiefs are +2.5 in this one. We know they have great success as underdogs in the Mahomes era, but the Bills won’t have Dalton Kincaid or Keon Coleman. Amari Cooper is supposed to play but probably isn’t 100%, and the Chiefs defend WR1’s very well. It just feels like a low-scoring game is about to go down, and that favors the Chiefs, who are so used to winning tight games. Maybe the winning streak is living on borrowed time after last week’s blocked FG saved it, but I still think the Chiefs are the better team, and I think a playoff rematch would look more offensive from both sides. KC isn’t going to cry for Buffalo’s injuries after everything they’ve been through this year with their injuries.

But there is an injury I have my eye on and that’s kicker Harrison Butker. I just wrote that article about Mahomes’ luck with clutch kicking relative to Brady, and it wouldn’t shock me if the Chiefs’ winning streak and perfect season bid ends because their new inexperienced kicker fails on a clutch FG. Call it payback for Tyler Bass missing in last January’s playoff game.

So, I don’t have a great feeling about the Chiefs this Sunday, but I still think they win. At this point, how can you bet against them? But Buffalo has defeated them in three straight regular seasons, so this one might be the biggest challenge left for 17-0.

Bengals-Chargers: I see this game going one of two ways. It could be a return to Chargering for Jim Harbaugh’s home debut in prime time, meaning a game where everything goes great for a half or three quarters, then they implode and lose to a hungry Cincinnati team that has been close most weeks and needs to avoid going 4-7. But the Bengals also are bad at winning close games like that. So, maybe it’s just a validation that the Chargers are different under Harbaugh, and he’s going to frustrate Joe Burrow with his defense that still hasn’t allowed more than 20 points in any game, and Justin Herbert is going to carve this defense up with his new receivers.

I believe in Harbaugh and Herbert more than I do Burrow and Zac Taylor, so I am going with the Chargers here. But I will acknowledge it’s a step up in competition for the defense to cover a weapon like Ja’Marr Chase, who is on fire right now. Picking him for OPOY before Week 1 doesn’t look so bad now.

But this should be a nice, lower stakes game to end what will hopefully be an incredible Sunday.

Jaguars-Lions: Seriously, Mac Jones against a scoring juggernaut? That doesn’t seem fair.

Packers-Bears: Matt LaFleur is 10-0 against the Bears with every win by 7+ points. Let’s back him to keep it rolling while the Bears are in “they are who we thought they were” mode.

Rams-Patriots: I don’t like what I’m seeing from the Rams right now. I think the Patriots can frustrate Stafford enough to require him to win it late on a FG.

Browns-Saints: Surprised Cleveland is favored, because this team hasn’t been good even outside of QB play this year. But the Saints have obviously struggled too. Still, I’m banking on that no 4QC streak for New Orleans to end, and I could see Jameis throwing a game-ending pick in his return to NOLA.

Vikings-Titans: Similar to last week, right? Vikings -5.5 on the road against a bad AFC South team with shoddy QB play expected. But they almost blew it in Jacksonville last week. The Titans play better defense and could really limit the yards Sam Darnold gains while forcing turnovers he’s all too willing to give up. I really want to take TEN +5.5, then I just remember the stupid shit Will Levis does on a football field and figure Brian Flores will find a way to bring that out enough. Not a game I plan on betting on though.

Colts-Jets: Anthony Richardson is back, and I guess I’m back on the Jets? Two teams not going anywhere right now.

Raiders-Dolphins: It was a 20-13 game when they played last year in Miami. Could see something similar, so I’ll give the Raiders a shot at a push or cover after their bye.

Seahawks-49ers: The 49ers own Geno Smith (6-0 since 2022), and I think they complete the sweep here with a 7-point win or better. Healthier offense. Already beat them on the road by 12 even though they tried to give that game away too. They should probably stop doing that this season.

Falcons-Broncos: Ah, the teams who couldn’t stop a 35-yd FG from getting blocked last week. I think the Falcons have the better overall roster, but I have to trust Sean Payton against a former division rival to find a way at home to get it done. I could see Kirk Cousins failing on a GWD again this week. Get Patrick Surtain to limit Drake London.

Texans-Cowboys: This should have been a good MNF game, but the Cowboys are ass and the Texans need to get out of prime time until they start playing better. I fully expect them to beat Cooper Rush, but I’m still going Dallas +7.5 just in case. I don’t trust a team that lost at home after getting 5 INTs last week. They also nearly gave away a game to Buffalo where Allen was 9-of-30. Something just isn’t right in Houston this year.

Hopefully I’ll be back Sunday night with recaps that mean something on the biggest games. It won’t be a RedZone day at all for me. Going to watch BAL-PIT and KC-BUF straight through.

2024 NFL Stat Oddity: Week 10

Week 10 in the NFL was almost an overcorrection to last week when favorites dominated the slate from start to finish. In Week 10, favorites were just 3-10 ATS with MNF pending.

But at the end of the day, the teams with the great records were largely winning by the skin of their teeth. It started Thursday night when the Ravens came back from a 21-7 deficit to beat the Bengals in a 35-34 game that came down to a 2-point conversion (and the refs turning a blind eye to Baltimore penalties on it).

Then Sunday brought some even wilder results with the Chiefs (trailed 14-3) and Lions (trailed 23-7) needing field goals to go their way at the end to improve to 17-1 collectively. The Steelers also had a 10-point comeback in the second half to beat the Commanders on the road, and even Kyle Shanahan’s 49ers had a comeback and game-winning field goal in Tampa Bay.

In all, 8-of-13 games had a comeback opportunity and there were seven game-winning drives in Week 10. That made up for the horrible late-afternoon slate that had no drama whatsoever.

It was a good build-up for Week 11, which could be the most crucial week of the 2024 regular season.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Broncos at Chiefs: 8-and-One Hell of a Block to Start 9-0

I guess the Chiefs just hate playing at 1:00 p.m. ET as their last such game was on Christmas last year (a Monday), which was their last loss against the Raiders. But the Chiefs are just showing off now. They have won so many games in a variety of ways in the Patrick Mahomes era, but Sunday’s 16-14 escape over Denver is a new achievement unlocked.

This was not your typical Kansas City letdown game in that there wasn’t a single turnover by either team. No obligatory fumble. No interceptions, unlucky bounce or not, from Patrick Mahomes. It wasn’t a penalty fest either with 9 total for 45 yards.

This was going to be Kansas City’s first loss in 15 games because the Broncos were just a little better on third down against the best third down offense in 2024. The Chiefs delivered some huge plays on that money down, but again, the Broncos were just a little better at converting and forcing pressure on Mahomes to end drives short of the end zone. Bo Nix threw both of his touchdowns on third downs in the second quarter to take a 14-3 lead as he wasn’t phased by Steve Spagnuolo’s defense in his first game against them. That division familiarity with good coaching helps.

But again, there was just enough pressure getting to Mahomes, who took 4 sacks, on money downs that the Chiefs were limited to 16 points. They had a couple of big fourth-down conversions, but they rightfully settled for a 20-yard field goal to take a 16-14 lead with 5:57 left.

In that situation, you don’t expect to never see the ball again, but that’s what happened thanks to Harrison Butker’s kickoff landing short of the kicking zone, which is a penalty that puts the ball at the 40 now. You would think of all weeks, where over 74 million Americans voted for a male rapist over a qualified woman, that Butker would be on point with everything.

Normally, you expect the Chiefs to make the big stops on defense, but it didn’t happen this time. They gave up a trio of third-down conversions, and the last one from Nix to Sutton for 13 yards on 3rd-and-6 should have been the dagger with the Chiefs out of timeouts. You run the clock down and kick the short field goal to win 17-16. Simples.

The Broncos appeared to do it right, and they were going to end the Kansas City winning streak. It was in the bag. But that’s when kicker Wil Lutz was shocked to see Leo Chenal power through the line to block the kick to win the game for Kansas City:

Epic finish, and Chenal was also the player who blocked a San Francisco extra point in the fourth quarter of the Super Bowl to keep it 16-13. So, we can say this is the luckiest win yet for the Chiefs during the 15-game winning streak as they needed to block a kick that has a solid 94% success rate in the NFL.

We can definitely say that. But to say only the Chiefs win like that or that this makes Mahomes the luckiest quarterback ever, well that’s just some bullshit.

First, this was the second blocked 35-yard field goal on Sunday alone. The Saints blocked Atlanta’s 35-yard field goal before halftime in a game Atlanta lost 20-17, but not as many people were following that one. Blocking kicks this short is certainly rare, but again, we just saw one in the same window of games and I mentioned the player who did it (Chenal) also blocked an extra point (35-yard kick) in February’s Super Bowl.

Also, a block is never as lucky as an opposing kicker flat out missing a short kick. Let’s at least make sure we’re crediting Chenal for what he did here.

This is just the fourth time since 1994 where a team blocked a field goal of 35 yards or shorter in the final 2:00 of the fourth quarter in a game that was tied or a team trailed by 1-2 points:

  • 11/7/1999: Down 14-13, Green Bay’s Ryan Longwell’s 28-yard field goal was blocked in a 14-13 loss to the Bears in the closing seconds, the closest example to Lutz vs. Chiefs.
  • 10/19/2003: Tied at 13, Miami’s Olindo Mare’s 35-yard field goal was blocked at the 2-minute warning in what became a 19-13 overtime win for New England.
  • 11/5/2006: Tied at 19, Dallas’ Mike Vanderjagt’s 35-yard field goal was blocked and returned 30 yards by Sean Taylor, and thanks to a facemask penalty on the return, it set up Washington for a 47-yard game-winning field goal as an untimed down in a 22-19 final.

There also were a few games in 1995-2005 where a short kick was blocked in overtime. But if you were in overtime in those years, the game just continued until there was a winner or tie. It wasn’t as do-or-die as the Denver situation Sunday.

So, it’s absolutely a rare finish, but the funniest outcome is that distance (35 yards) instantly reminded me of the Olindo Mare game I’ve tweeted about several times since I joined Twitter in 2011.

Not only did the 2003 Patriots block a 35-yard field goal by Olindo Mare with 2:00 left in a tied game, but Mare missed a 35-yard field goal on his own to start overtime. Back then, that’s game over, so that miss is the only reason the Patriots have a record 21-game winning streak to their name. That was Game #3 in the streak, and the misses allowed Tom Brady to throw an 82-yard touchdown pass to Troy Brown, the fourth-longest touchdown pass of his career.

That Mare double whammy for the 2003 Dolphins against New England is the only game in the 21st century NFL where a kicker missed two FGs of 35 yards or shorter in the clutch.

So, spare me the “only the Chiefs and Mahomes” rhetoric with this one. Brady still has the LOAT title locked up. But hopefully this close call will have the Chiefs prepared even better for their huge trip to Buffalo in what could be the Game of the Year in the AFC.

Lions at Texans: Goofed Around with 5 Picks and Won Anyway

In the battle of a top pass offense and pass defense, the defense kind of won, but the Lions somehow still won the game despite Jared Goff throwing 5 interceptions on the road. Goff had been completing over 83% of his passes for the last 6 weeks, but he was just 15-of-30 in this game against a Houston defense that has forced some crazy numbers this year for Josh Allen and Anthony Richardson.

But Goff’s pick parade had the Lions in a 23-7 hole at halftime with C.J. Stroud looking stellar without Nico Collins and Stefon Diggs. Unfortunately, the Texans repeated a lot of their sins when they nearly blew a big lead against Buffalo. Stroud started turning the ball over a couple of times too, and the Texans never scored in the second half.

Oh, there were chances. But Joe Mixon (25 carries for 46 yards) was stuffed all night, and Stroud didn’t finish the job. I think you have to seriously question the Texans trying a 58-yard field goal in a tied game with 1:51 left. It was 4th-and-4 at the time. The Texans already won that Buffalo game with a 59-yard field goal by Ka’imi Fairbairn, so that might have poisoned their thinking process on this one.

But that was not the same situation. That was at the end of regulation. If Fairbairn missed that kick, the game would just go to overtime. If he missed this one, which he did badly, the Lions got the ball at the Detroit 48 and were in business with 1:51 left as they did. There’s also the added benefit of going for it, converting, and possibly running out the clock to make the field goal the last play. That’s why I think Houston likely errored in not going for that one. A past win’s unlikely success potentially leading to a future loss.

The Lions got a little conservative on their ensuing drive too, and they even willingly kicked it on third down instead of trying to gain a few more yards for Jake Bates, who just narrowly made a kick from 58 yards to tie the game with 5:01 left. That one went to the right. This time, Bates was narrowly inside the uprights to the left as time expired on a 52-yard game-winning field goal, shocking the Texans in a 26-23 final.

That’s about as close as it gets. Like the Chiefs, maybe the Lions are just the chosen team this year. You have to go back to that crazy Cowboys-Bills game in Buffalo on MNF in 2007 to find the last time a road team won after throwing five picks. The Cowboys recovered a late onside kick in that one to pull it off. The Lions were less dire than that, a real indictment on how poorly the Texans played offensively after halftime.

I think it’s safe to say neither C.J. Stroud nor Jared Goff will be winning MVP after this game, but it sure was an entertaining and dramatic mess I’d watch over most games this season.

Steelers at Commanders: In Russ We Trust

This was the game I was most interested in watching Sunday, and for the most part, it delivered with a 28-27 final. But despite all those points, I wouldn’t say the offenses and quarterbacks played that great. In fact, both quarterbacks completed 50% of their passes for about 200 yards and 3 sacks each.

But it was Russell Wilson pushing the ball down the field to his wideouts that made the difference as George Pickens had a great touchdown catch (among other highlights), and it was Mike Williams who delivered in his team debut with the 32-yard touchdown with 2:22 left to put the Steelers ahead for good.

Wilson just lives for those moments, and he might have had the go-ahead drive earlier had Jaylen Warren not fumbled at the 1-yard line. But it’s a tough loss for Washington, which led 24-14 in the third quarter. But the Commanders were just off on some throws by Jayden Daniels, who wasn’t as sharp as his reputation, and his receivers also just dropped some easy ones as there were plays to be had against the Pittsburgh defense.

But the outcome could have absolutely been different had old tight end Zach Ertz been better on a 4th-and-9 at midfield as Washington tried to drive for a winning field goal. Ertz cut the route off a yard too short of the marker, his initial forward progress was good for a first down, but he went backwards on his own, his knee went down before he was touched, and he didn’t get a good extension to pick up that last yard. So, the result was a turnover on downs even if it was really close, and had they ruled it a first down initially, it probably would have stood. But Ertz needs to be a little better there.

Washington still had every timeout left, so the game wasn’t over. But the Steelers sent their offense back out there on 4th-and-1 at the Washington 49 with the likely intention of trying to draw the Commanders offsides instead of actually going for it with 1:02 left. Shockingly, the Commanders bit hard for it quickly and that was enough to move the chains with the neutral zone infraction penalty. Game over.

But that’s the kind of game where you are happy to have someone like Russell Wilson, who lives for those moments, instead of someone like Justin Fields, who shrinks in them. Now we’ll see if the Steelers (7-2) can continue their upset streak against the Ravens at home next week in a very big game in the rivalry.

Vikings at Jaguars: Sam Darnold vs. Mac Jones in Crunch Time Is Pure Hell

A matchup between Sam Darnold and Mac Jones at quarterback is just wrong. It was bad in 2021, and it was even worse Sunday. Darnold couldn’t stop throwing picks early into the end zone, but the good news is the Vikings wised up in time to not let him do it again in the fourth quarter. They just ran the ball and kicked a 34-yard field goal to take a 9-7 lead with 7:14 left.

That’s usually not good enough to hold up in this league, but it is when Mac Jones is filling in for Trevor Lawrence on the other side. Jones had the game’s only touchdown run from 1 yard out, but that would be Jacksonville’s only score in the game as we were reminded of just how brutal Jones is in crunch time.

In the last half of this quarter, the Jaguars had the ball three times, and they ended each with a Jones turnover, including a fumbled snap and two picks before the Vikings ran out the clock in an ugly 12-7 win that could be a sign of more things to come for Darnold this season.

Christ, what a matchup. After the game, Darnold is now 4-17 (.190) at fourth-quarter comeback opportunities in his career while Jones is 2-14 (.125). Two of the worst to ever do it.

But any time I see a quarterback, and this is rare, turn it over three times in one quarter in these situations, I think about the fact that Peyton Manning went seven seasons with just 3 turnovers in losses in 4QC/GWD situations. He threw a Hail Mary interception against the 2003 Jaguars and 2007 Chargers (after Adam Vinatieri missed a 29-yard field goal), and he had a strip-sack against the undefeated Patriots in 2007. That’s it. Then, of course, the Tracy Porter pick-six happened in Super Bowl XLIV, but people acted like Manning always did that when it just wasn’t true.

But Mac Jones? He always does stuff like this. That part is true.

Bills at Colts: Buffalo Glad to Face Quarterback with No Future in Indy

It must have sucked for the rest of the Colts to play well enough to beat Buffalo, but Joe Flacco had other ideas. Not only did he start the game with a brutal pick-six, but he finished with three picks, a strip-sack, and he took a sack on a fourth down near the red zone where the Colts probably should have just taken the field goal in a 20-13 game.

Instead, they lost 30-20, and that’s with a garbage-time touchdown at the end. Just a miserable outing for Flacco, who I initially supported for starting by benching Anthony Richardson. But if these last two games are the best he can muster, they might as well go back to Richardson and see what he has.

Josh Allen had his first multi-interception game of the season, but it didn’t even matter since he still made enough big plays that Flacco couldn’t match on the other side.

It’s not the ideal performance for Buffalo a week before the Kansas City game, but it showed they can create a bunch of turnovers, which could give them a leg up in that one.

49ers at Buccaneers: Stop Drafting Kickers High

Christian McCaffrey made his 2024 debut for the 49ers, but he didn’t find the end zone, and his best contributions were in the passing game with 6 catches for 68 yards. But I’m more interested in the return of my San Francisco whipping boy, kicker Jake Moody.

Moody ultimately won this game, 23-20, with a 44-yard field goal as time expired, but if he did his job better earlier, then it wouldn’t have come down to that. Moody was 3-of-6 on field goals in this game, missing wide from 49, 50, and 44 yards. With the way kickers are crushing the ball this season from deeper distances than that, this simply isn’t good enough for any kicker, let alone one the team infamously used the 99th pick in the third round on in 2023.

I just don’t see a kicker like this lasting long in San Francisco. Fortunately, they had enough weapons to come back and win the game, but this was very close to yet another blown lead as Baker Mayfield had some incredible plays late in the fourth quarter to tie it.

That’s Nick Bosa getting a stiff arm from Baker, though one has to wonder if this was some Trump voter solidarity, because since when does Bosa not take a quarterback down there? Weird play.

It’s the kind of game where you wonder how much of a difference Mike Evans would have made for the Bucs, who had to settle for a tying field goal, which set up the 49ers’ shot for redemption for Moody on the final snap.

But let’s also add Ricky Pearsall to the list of impressive rookie wideouts in this class. He had a 47-yard touchdown and was big on the game-winning drive. The 49ers only had five players get a target in this game, but even without Brandon Aiyuk being one of them, it’s an impressive group.

Too bad the most talented roster in the league has one of the worst kickers.

Eagles at Cowboys: The Sun Going Down on Jerry World Early This Year

The Cowboys got a boost defensively from the return of Micah Parsons, but their offense totally wasted it with Cooper Rush looking like his body was crippled by arthritis. What happened to the quarterback who threw for over 300 yards in some past starts and had game-winning drives in this offense? He was awful on Sunday, and Trey Lance isn’t a great option going forward. But they should make that change if Dak Prescott is getting surgery Monday to end his season.

But everyone’s season in Dallas is technically over at 3-6. Jalen Hurts turned it over twice and took 5 sacks, and the Cowboys still lost 34-6 at home. That’s what happens when your quarterback just loses the ball like a feeble old man would, and speaking of feeble old men, Ezekiel Elliott coughed one up into the end zone too. Oh, even the sun betrayed Dallas again as CeeDee Lamb couldn’t locate a ball because the sun blinded him.

The Cowboys finished 17-of-29 for 66 yards with a pick and 3 sacks taken. What a product, Jerry.

Titans at Chargers: Our Consistent Chargers

With these teams like the Bengals, you don’t know if they’re going to score and give up 7 points or 35 points. At least the Chargers are consistent as hell this season. They’re going to score 17-to-27 points, and they still haven’t allowed anyone but Pittsburgh to score 20 points on them.

They can run the ball, Justin Herbert makes good decisions, and they just win fairly low-drama games. It happened again against the Titans, who got Will Levis back but still struggled to score even if he wasn’t a turnover machine this week.

Instead, that defense had Levis feeling constipated as he took 7 sacks but only lost 18 yards on those plays. I had to look it up, and Rick Mirer for the 1996 Seahawks is the only other quarterback to take 7 sacks and not lose at least 25 yards in a game on record. Mirer also had 7 sacks for 18 yards lost against the Chiefs. You never want to be compared to Mirer.

Meanwhile, Herbert only had to throw 18 passes, completed 14 of them for 164 yards, ran for a touchdown, and didn’t take a sack. Finally, he’s enjoying the “easy” wins the NFL has to offer from time to time.

Also, I despise Calvin Ridley. He’s going on the permanent ban list after jacking up my parlay where he’d hit his under in receptions (4.5) in a Chargers’ win. He just had to catch his fifth pass for his second touchdown of the day with 49 seconds left to make it a 27-17 final.

But that’s also the first time this season the Chargers had a game go over 39.5 points, so there’s that streak over with.

Falcons at Saints: That Younghoe Not Coo

Everything was pointing against the Saints this week, but that was one of my upset picks as I know division games are weird, and the Falcons really struggled to put the ball in the end zone against the Saints earlier this year.

It happened again, and the Saints didn’t help them out with a pair of return touchdowns this time. Instead, they got two surprise touchdowns to Marquez Valdes-Scantling, who only signed recently after all their wide receiver injuries.

But the Saints didn’t do a good job of finishing this game, a familiar scene for them. They punted on 5-of-6 drives after halftime, but the Falcons couldn’t capitalize as kicker Younghoe Koo ended up missing three field goals, including a 46-yard field goal that hit the upright with 6:39 left. It would have tied the game at 20.

But Kirk Cousins was later picked by Tyrann Mathieu, and making it even worse was that he gave up the 2-minute warning in the process (clock at 1:59 after pick). The Falcons had all three timeouts to get the ball back after the defense did its part with a three-and-out, but that pick was costly, and Derek Carr saved the Falcons a lot of time with an incomplete pass on third down.

So, Cousins had one more shot from his 14 with 1:35 left. But an inefficient drive took too long, and Cousins ended up throwing short of the sticks on the last play, which was no man’s land, but it was also a situation where he needed to do something different than this:

I know he couldn’t spike it since it was 4th down, but they got to get something more to the sideline to convert and take a shot at the long field goal. But given the way Koo’s day went, he probably would have missed that too.

At least the Saints have ended one of the most brutal 7-game losing streaks following a historic start.

Jets at Cardinals: Cooked

It’s hard to say what the nadir is for this Jets’ season as we thought losing to the Broncos in 10-9 game and losing to the Patriots would be pretty damn low. But they were dominated on both sides of the ball in Arizona in a 31-6 loss where you have to wonder if Aaron Rodgers doesn’t just retire after this mess of a season.

But this game had just 13 total possessions, and I’m not sure I’ve ever seen a game with a number so low that was such a blowout at 31-6. Usually you see a very close game with both teams scoring, but the Jets had two field goals, two punts, a lost fumble, and they turned it over on downs in the fourth quarter when the game was way out of reach.

The Cardinals only had five full possessions deep into the third quarter, and they scored 4 touchdowns and a field goal on them. I guess we have to acknowledge that the Cardinals are decent this season. Murray was 22-of-24 for 266 yards while rushing for a pair of touchdowns as only he can with his unique “scooting” style of runs.

Meanwhile, Rodgers looks every bit his age. He finished the game 6/13 for 31 yards on his targets to Davante Adams.

Patriots at Bears: They Are Who We Thought They Were

How are we in Week 10 and Caleb Williams looks like the worst rookie quarterback now? What exactly did they teach him during the bye week? Anyone can point to the opponent difficulty for the 3-game winning streak against the Rams/Panthers/Jaguars, but it’s not like Commanders/Cardinals/Patriots are a murderer’s row of defenses in 2024.

He took 9 sacks in this game. Isn’t that supposed to be what Drake Maye is facing on the other side? Maye was only sacked once and it didn’t lose any yards. He also threw for 64 more yards on 5 fewer passes than Williams, and he continues to be a more productive runner.

But what a bummer of a performance at home as the Bears were 1-of-14 on third down. That’s how you manage just a single field goal on 11 drives. The Bears didn’t have an official turnover in this game, but that might have been more fun than watching them punt 8 times in a 19-3 loss.

Giants at Panthers: Germany Can Keep Daniel Jones

With each week we should get closer and closer to not having to see Daniel Jones in a Giants uniform, especially not in an island game. I slept thru most of this one, but I saw him run for a touchdown to make things interesting in the fourth quarter before both backs turned it over. That includes Tyrone Tracy deflecting the ball to the defense in the red zone of a 17-14 game.

Then Tracy fumbled in overtime too, which makes you wonder if he’s just had enough of Jones’ shit and wants him out of town too. The Panthers were gifted a game-winning drive by just running it 3 times for 5 yards before a 36-yard field goal won the game 20-17 in overtime. That’s a little 2-game winning streak for Dave Canales’ team now.

New York (via New Jersey) football is truly the worst these days. But I’m not sure how they expect to grow the game in Germany when we’re clearly not sending our best even if they turn out to be low-scoring games that are close at the end like Colts-Patriots was last year.

But we really need to stop unleashing Daniel Jones on millions of people who just want to watch a good game.

Next week: Week 11 might be as good as it gets this regular season. Granted, most of the games look like shit on paper, but just think about the highlights. Commanders at Eagles for the first time this year on Thursday night for control of the NFC East. Ravens at Steelers is a monster game in the AFC/AFC North at 1:00 p.m. Chiefs-Bills is the huge 4:25 showdown. Even Bengals-Chargers on SNF could be pretty good and has importance in the wild card race. Not exactly sure which angle I want to write about this week, but I’ll have something about these games.  

NFL 2024 Week 10 Predictions: All Eyes on Washington Edition

If you thought the title would be a nod to the 2024 election this week, you’d be right. If you think I’m going to give Orange Caligula any more oxygen in this space right now, you’d be wrong. He should die of gonorrhea and rot in hell. The Washington I’m watching this weekend is the Commanders, and I’m excited to finally see a full live game with Jayden Daniels. I think Steelers-Commanders is clearly the highlight game on Sunday, and we’ll see if a return by Nico Collins in Houston could bolster that matchup on SNF.

But I also want to quickly point out that Week 9 was a great reminder that you don’t always have to pick underdogs just for the sake of picking them. I’ve been guilty of that a lot this season as I didn’t want to just publish picks where the favorite covers and wins. But in Week 9, favorites were 14-1 SU (God damn Saints) and 10-5 ATS. Almost perfect.

Favorites have been on a good run after a lot of upsets early this season in the games with the biggest spreads. But now that we’re into the second half of the 2024 regular season, we are seeing this is a top-heavy season. There are nine teams with just 2 wins going into Sunday. The last team who makes the playoffs in the AFC could be a mess unless the Bengals or Jets finish strong. The NFC is stronger, but the NFC West has been messy with the teams blowing double-digit leads against each other as they jumble around .500 right now. The Cowboys have fallen apart sooner than expected.

It’s getting easier to pick winners since the games are usually playing out as lopsided as they look on paper now. But I will say that doesn’t apply to Sunday’s first game in Germany where we somehow sent the Giants and Panthers. We’re not sending (or voting for) our best.

This Week’s Articles

NFL Week 10 Predictions

Silly me for thinking the Ravens-Bengals would at least try to play a different game script than Week 5. But it turned into more of the same with the Bengals choking away a game they should have won (again). Maybe neither team ultimately decides who wins the Super Bowl this year, but the thin margin in those games is something else. We’re two solid snaps away from the Bengals at 6-4 and the Ravens at 5-5 right now.

Panthers-Giants: Not a chance I won’t be sawing logs during this one. But I think Carolina can build off its win and use Chuba Hubbard against that poor run defense. Giants having to win by 6.5 against anyone with Daniel Jones feels like a lot.

Patriots-Bears: Not sure how to react to Bears playing so poorly on offense since the bye. Just banking on hope that Maye makes some mistakes and Caleb channels his 2022 Justin Fields against the New England defense with a big game.

Bills-Colts: I’m very tempted to take both the Bills and Chiefs to struggle this Sunday with their big showdown a week away. Shades of 1990 Giants-49ers when they were supposed to meet undefeated and both lost the week before. I think Joe Flacco will definitely score more this week to keep the job, but I’m still going to trust the Bills on the road. But I won’t be surprised if they win by 3 and don’t cover.

Vikings-Jaguars: Can Sam Darnold get a call for a blow to the head this week? I just think the Vikings are better on both sides of the ball and should win by a touchdown.

Broncos-Chiefs: Odds are suggesting a 24-17 game and that passes the sniff test for me. Division games are weird. Sean Payton got a couple of cracks at the Chiefs last year. At least Mahomes shouldn’t have the flu this time, but I don’t think the Chiefs will score a ton against a team that knows them well and has mostly played good defense this year. All comes down to how Bo Nix handles the blitzes sure to come his way, but I think his mobility could be very useful here. I’ll go with the KC classic: they win and don’t cover.

Falcons-Saints: This is going against the grain but I’m calling for the upset. Everyone is shitting on the Saints, including the Pope having fun with hashtags on Twitter. But I think they get a first-game interim coach boost, they’re due for a 4QC win (none since 2023 started), and the Falcons needed 2 return touchdowns to beat them at home earlier this season. The losing streak stops here. If not, then I’m probably not picking them the rest of the season in any game.

49ers-Bucs: CMC is finally back, but even if he wasn’t, I think the 49ers coming off a bye and feeling healthier is an easy pick against the Bucs, who left the tank empty on Monday night in KC. I view this game quite similarly to Jags-Vikings this week. I know, the 6.5-point spread is the kiss of death this season, but I just feel good about the 49ers here.

Steelers-Commanders: I think it’s a 23-20 type of game that comes down to the last seconds and a FG. I’m going to go with Washington, because I believe the Steelers aren’t well prepared for this impressive rookie who can attack them at every level of the field. Unfamiliar opponents. Of course, it wouldn’t shock me if the Steelers won 23-17. Why that score? That’s the score they won by on the road in Arizona in 2019 against Kliff Kingsbury and Kyler Murray, and that’s the score Washington won by in Pittsburgh in 2020 on a Monday, the game that was the beginning of the end for the Pittsburgh offense looking functional under Big Ben. But I’m still going to trust Jayden Daniels in this one as he’s actually 5-0 ATS as a favorite this year. It should be fun.

Titans-Chargers: Will Levis is back, and he’s facing the No. 1 scoring defense? Then I think the streak of games under 40 points for the Chargers can continue. Give me LA 23-13.

Jets-Cardinals: It’s not so much that I believe the Jets are going to start reeling off wins, but I just don’t know what to make of Arizona yet. Apparently I’m not alone as this is a small spread in a week with 8 games having a spread of 5.5 and higher.

Cowboys-Eagles: You might say the Eagles should dominate, but they nearly blew a 22-0 lead to Trevor Lawrence last week. Mike McCarthy usually does a respectable job with backup QBs like Cooper Rush, who made it a 20-17 game in the fourth quarter in 2022 when he was in Philly on SNF with the Eagles during their peak run to that Super Bowl year. He lost 26-17 in the end, and he threw 3 picks, but I think the Cowboys will actually make this respectable before losing again. Backdoor cover is always an option.

Lions-Texans: Preview link above but I just think the Texans are the inferior team here, and the Lions should keep rolling. But I am intrigued by the No. 1 defense in lowest completion % vs. No. 1 QB in highest completion % as Goff is over 83% in his last 5 games. But if it’s actually close, don’t discount some C.J. Stroud magic now that Nico Collins is back. Still, it’s a bummer Diggs tore his ACL as this one had high potential for a non-conference game on SNF. It still might deliver.

Dolphins-Rams: I always say fade the Dolphins on the road against good teams, but are the Rams still good? It’s hard to say, but I’m taking them with their weapons. Hopefully we can avoid a Puka ejection this week.

2024 NFL Stat Oddity: Week 9

When I tweeted that the NFL’s Week 9 Sunday action was the weakest this season, I was ignoring a few individual highlight plays I’ll link below in the recaps. But a great play does not make for a great game. I think in the end, it was the weakest for these reasons:

  • As I expected between Jordan Love’s groin and the rain, Lions-Packers did not live up to the Game of the Week hype it deserved under normal circumstances.
  • Favorites are 13-1 SU this week (10-4 ATS) with the 9.5-point favored Chiefs still to host Tampa Bay on Monday night.
  • Only the Saints (-7.5) lost to the Panthers, and is it ever really a big upset if Derek Carr is on the losing end? He also was getting roasted by Michael Thomas on Twitter during the game, so he was losing either way today.
  • Not only was Saints-Panthers the only upset, it was the only game Sunday with a fourth-quarter lead change, so that game stood out from the pack and it wasn’t anything special.
  • Sure, 7-of-14 games had a comeback opportunity and there were a pair of overtime games, but neither actually had a lead change, and the teams who came back late to tie it with a great touchdown drive still ended up losing in overtime.
  • The only other fourth-quarter comeback in Week 9 was the Jets on Thursday night against Houston, a game script that the Vikings largely followed in their 21-13 (same score) win over the Colts on Sunday night.

Not a very original week even if there were some cool plays.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Dolphins at Bills: Unexpected Game of the Week

I am so used to Miami bombing in these road games against contenders that I didn’t think much of this 5.5-point spread in Buffalo. But the Dolphins did play them tough there in both games in the 2022 season, and they had Tua Tagovailoa back at quarterback. He actually had one of the best games of his career in a loss as he completed 25-of-28 passes for 231 yards.

But the long drives by both teams magnified every mistake. So when Miami only gets 7 real possessions in the game, Raheem Mostert giving one away with a fumble at midfield is a bigger deal.

The Bills also felt that sting when Keon Coleman turned a catch into an interception by Jalen Ramsey in the second quarter. Maybe the turnover luck is starting to go south for Buffalo, but it still prevailed in this one after getting some key penalties on third down in the fourth quarter. The last one was just an incredibly stupid gift by Jordan Poyer, who hit a defenseless receiver on a pass that was going to be incomplete. That’s a season-ending type of stupid play given the AFC East records.

But when the Bills were stalled at the Miami 43, I was a little surprised to see Tyler Bass come out for a 61-yard field goal. He’s been struggling this season, he missed an extra point in this game, but they trusted him for the win. He absolutely drilled the kick too to give the Bills a 30-27 lead, which stood up after Jaylen Waddle had one of the worst lateral attempts you’ll ever see, which also cost Tua his passing over prop.

Lions at Packers: Old School Football Wins

Again, I wasn’t expecting much from this game because of the wet field and Jordan Love’s groin injury. But I don’t want to act like the Lions beat up on an immobile starter who should have sat out this week. Love didn’t take any sacks in this game, he threw for 273 yards, but it was this killer pick-six before halftime that changed everything and made a 10-3 game a 17-3 game:

I’ve watched that several times and I’m still not sure what the plan was for 2nd-and-1. Were they trying to set up a slow-developing screen for the RB? Should he just hit the tight end leaking out into the flat for the first down with under 40 seconds left? Every other receiver went flying down the field and out of reach, but this just looked bad and Love never should have thrown that one.

Then the Lions came out of the break with their last touchdown drive, and just like that they doubled scored on them to make it 24-3. Goodnight. Did Tom Brady sign a contract clause that every FOX game he calls has to be a boring rout?

The best Green Bay could do was make it 24-14 with 3:49 left. But Goff and the offense was able to run out the clock for another win, their third season in a row winning at Lambeau. Hopefully the Packers can return the favor in the rematch, but the Lions looked better prepared to handle the elements. They didn’t turn it over once against the No. 1 defense for takeaways. Meanwhile, Love had 3 fumbles (none lost) to go along with that pick-six as the slick ball was problematic for the Packers.

Broncos at Ravens: Denver’s Not Ready for This

Sunday was a litmus test for the Broncos, and it sure did not go well in a 41-10 rout. It’s one thing to beat teams like the Panthers, Raiders, and Saints, but the Broncos needed to show something here, and it ended up being a miserable day on both sides of the ball. They gave up a perfect passer rating to Lamar Jackson, who only had to throw 19 passes since his receivers were so open and ready for big plays, and Derrick Henry carved them up for another multi-touchdown day and 133 total yards.

But I wouldn’t say rookie Bo Nix was a disaster against this defense. He moved the ball, he even caught his first touchdown on a trick play, but the Broncos were 1-for-5 on fourth down, and that hurt. The first failure came early when Javonte Williams for some reason didn’t stretch the ball out on a fourth-down run, so he was ruled short on a challenge. That set up the Ravens on a short field and the rout was on.

Denver had 6 drives inside Baltimore territory (4 in the red zone) and only came away with 10 points. That’s just not good enough. Some defenses have done a decent job of slowing down the Ravens this year, but the Broncos were one of the worst against them. Guess it’s just not the same as playing Bryce Young, Spencer Rattler, the 2-headed monster in Vegas, or getting Aaron Rodgers in the rain.

The Broncos (5-4) may exceed expectations this year, but this team is still far from ready to seriously compete in the AFC playoffs. That’s what Sunday showed.

Chargers at Browns: They Really Did Give Justin Herbert a Defense

What does it take to get a game with the Chargers to 40 points this season? Even the 27-10 final in this one is misleading as the Browns scored a touchdown in garbage time. But if you thought Jameis Winston was going to get into a shootout with Justin Herbert like I did, we were dead wrong. Winston threw three picks as the Chargers repeatedly turned him away.

Meanwhile, what a game for Herbert. He threw for 250 yards and took 6 sacks in the first half alone, hitting on several big plays to his unheralded receivers. He barely had to do anything in the second half, but that’s the nice thing about having a defense and a running game you can rely on to close games.

The Chargers (5-3) are showing they can throw the ball when they have to, and the defense still hasn’t let anyone score more than 20 points this season. It’s an intriguing team for January.

Rams at Seahawks: NFC West Is a Mess

This game had me slipping in and out of a nap as I’d he awakened by the next killer Geno Smith interception, including a 103-yard return for a touchdown in the fourth quarter that gave the Rams a 20-13 lead.

https://twitter.com/NFL/status/1853226818276626684

Are you kidding me, Geno? He also took 7 sacks. But the Rams could not put this one away in a game where they had 13 possessions. I’d be curious about Sean McVay’s success rate in the 4-minute offense because it sure feels like he always plays it so conservatively and puts the game on his defense. Well, it almost cost them here as the Rams gave up the game-tying touchdown with 51 seconds left as Smith temporarily redeemed himself.

I thought the Seahawks might go for 2, but I guess they thought there was too much time left. So, they played overtime. I don’t disagree with the decision by the Seahawks to go for a 4th-and-1 at the Rams 16 in overtime with 7:19 left. They didn’t get it, but we saw the problem in that spot when the defense gave up another touchdown to Demarcus Robinson, so they would have lost the game anyway if they were up 23-20.

But that 103-yard pick-six was a killer and let’s not forget the Seahawks blew a 13-3 lead before that too. Just a missed opportunity to get to 5-4 in this mess of a division that is already filled with weird comeback wins like this game.

Colts at Vikings: What’s the Plan, Indy?

The Colts have not been a serious organization for several years now. I don’t get how you make a big stink about benching Anthony Richardson for Joe Flacco, then come out and look this uninterested in getting Flacco comfortable in the game. He had 10 pass attempts at halftime and 3-of-10 were to running back Jonathan Taylor, who never established the run with 48 yards on 13 carries for the night.

Flacco is a rhythm passer. He needs to get going early and he needs volume. They didn’t do that, so it’s no wonder they only scored two field goals. Their only touchdown was a bogus one on defense on a play that should have been flagged for hitting Sam Darnold in the face, but apparently he doesn’t get those whistles this year (see missed facemask vs. Rams last week).

Richardson could have scored 6 points and taken the loss too. But while I know the Colts use a lot of play-action with both quarterbacks, is that really a good idea for the older, slower Flacco to turn his back to this deceptive Minnesota defense he’s trying to figure out? I would have spread them out early with Flacco in the gun and take my chances with his receivers. But they just never got around to that until they had to, and the pass rush teed off on him.

On the other side, I think you see why the ceiling for this team with Darnold is probably a close divisional round loss. That’s still a hell of a lot better than the expectations for the 2024 Vikings, but he had 3 turnovers and 4 sacks in this game even if the fumble return was bullshit. That’s too many negative plays, and that’s going to cost you in January against a functional opponent (i.e. not the Colts).

Flacco infamously made it through his 2012 Super Bowl run without those big mistakes (thanks for that, Rahim Moore). I’m not sure Darnold can do it, but maybe getting Jordan Addison a nice touchdown and getting tight end T.J. Hockenson back in the mix will elevate this offense going forward.

Jaguars at Eagles: I Was Hoping This Would Be the Only Pennsylvania Choke This Week…

I’m not going to get on board with “fire Nick Sirianni” yet as I see that going around social media today. But I get it, in a way. The Eagles were up 22-0 and almost blew this game with a weird fumble touchdown on a play involving Saquon Barkley where he might have been down by contact but not really. The only blemish to this incredible day for Barkley with this unforgettable highlight:

https://x.com/CoachDanCasey/status/1853191583174107478

Then Jake Elliott couldn’t hit a 57-yard field goal late for the cover and insurance score, so Trevor Lawrence really had a chance in this one even though he led the offense to 1 first down and 16 net passing yards at halftime.

Fortunately, the defense put an end to this mess with an interception in the end zone as the Jags dropped another close game, 28-23. But this one really should not have been this close, and it’ll be interesting to see what happens going forward when the Eagles start playing those division teams like Dallas and Washington.

But hey, a win is a win, which is what I’ll say this week when Orange Caligula goes down too in Pennsylvania and many other places.

Raiders at Bengals: Clueless Team Cleans House

Leave it up to the Raiders to give up 5 touchdown passes (none were to Ja’Marr Chase) and make firing the offensive coaching staff, including coordinator Luke Getsy, the headline after a 41-24 loss.

Any blame for Antonio Pierce’s clueless defense that couldn’t contain Mike Gesicki? But the offense wasn’t good either as the 24 points were a mirage that included a pick-six and a garbage-time score to Brock Bowers.

But how does your offense ever build something when Pierce tries to bench Gardner Minshew every week? They’re onto Desmond Ridder now. Good luck with that. This is what happens when you start a season with the most embarrassing quarterback room in the league.

Bears at Cardinals: The Bears Are Who We Thought They Were

Tale as old as time: The Chicago Bears are struggling in the passing game with rookie Caleb Williams, who took 6 sacks and couldn’t move the chains on third downs.

But a new twist is allowing a 50-plus yards touchdown at the end of a half. The Hail Mary was one thing last week, but this time to end the first half, the Bears somehow gave up a 53-yard run right down the middle of the field to Arizona’s backup runner. How does that happen with 4 seconds left in the half? Does this team not have safeties to drop back as the last line of defense?

It could have been a 14-9 game at halftime with Chicago regrouping, but that just blew it open at 21-9, and the Bears never found the end zone. Oh, they gave up a safety in their own end with a penalty in the end zone later.

But I’m not sure what to make of Arizona yet. The Cardinals are 5-4, the only winning record in the NFC West. But it’s a volatile team in a volatile division this year.

Cowboys at Falcons: Deceivingly Close

I think “Deceivingly Close” would be a good title for a book about the 1996-2024 Dallas Cowboys and their attempt to get back to an NFC Championship Game. It sure doesn’t look like it’s happening this season as the playoffs are in doubt at 3-5.

Dak Prescott left the 27-21 loss with a hamstring injury that could linger, but the game didn’t even feel that close. The Falcons lost Drake London early in the game but not before he caught a touchdown. The Falcons held CeeDee Lamb to 47 yards on 8 catches.

Dallas only scored its last touchdown with 1:28 left to make it a one-score game, but it was over after the Cowboys didn’t recover the onside kick, something Atlanta needed to do against this team in that 2020 fiasco.

But the Falcons continue to look like the best team in the NFC South while the Cowboys are third best in the NFC East at best these days.

Commanders at Giants: Touchdowns at MetLife (But Not Enough)

If your quarterback hasn’t thrown a touchdown pass at home in 672 days, he probably shouldn’t have been your quarterback that long. That’s the case of Daniel Jones, who finally ended his streak on Sunday, but it still wasn’t enough in a 27-22 loss to the Commanders, who are now 7-2 behind the runaway leader for Offensive Rookie of the Year, Jayden Daniels.

It was another very efficient day for Daniels. While they actually made him punt this time, the Giants couldn’t stop Daniels on some key third downs, and that’s how the Commanders stayed a step ahead for the win even though the Giants were finally scoring for a change.

Saints at Panthers: Carr’s Masterpiece Afternoon

What a legacy-defining afternoon for Derek Carr:

  • Threw a couple of hospital balls that knocked Chris Olave and Juwan Johnson out of the game.
  • Got ripped to shreds by former teammate Michael Thomas on Twitter after the Olave play.
  • Wasted a 155-rushing yards day by Alvin Kamara as the offense struggled in the red zone and on third down (5-of-15).
  • Took a fourth-quarter lead, but flubbed the crucial 2-point conversion, which is why the game wasn’t tied late.
  • Only needing a field goal with 2:18 left, Carr couldn’t get past his own 46, turning it over on downs to one of the worst teams in the NFL.
  • The Saints are the first team to ever start 2-0 with 40-point games and go on a 7-game losing streak.
  • Carr is the first quarterback in NFL history to lose a start to 31 different teams.
  • The Saints are the only team without a fourth-quarter comeback win since the 2023 season started (0-4 in those one-score opportunities this year).
  • Chris Olave’s brother backed Thomas’ sentiment that Carr needs his ass whooped, and he said it’s not worth his brother’s health playing in New Orleans.

I wouldn’t be surprised if I woke up to see that Carr got coach Dennis Allen fired for a second time in his NFL career. What a mess in New Orleans.

Patriots at Titans: Drake Maye Has Some Josh Allen in Him

Thanks to Josh Allen, if a quarterback sucks in his first two seasons, we’re going to hear how he could be the next Allen and have a breakout season in Year 3. I’m generally going to be opposed to this, because Allen is an outlier, and his athletic profile makes him an even bigger outlier. People are also going to mischaracterize where he was in Year 2 as we’ve already seen with the 2024 Anthony Richardson comparisons.

But a player I might be willing to give a Year 3 grace period to is Drake Maye, especially when you consider how bare Bill Belichick the GM left the cupboards in New England. If you give this guy a competent team and a good coach, you never know what you might get as he gives off some Allen vibes with his athleticism.

In Tennessee, he played in his first full start that was close at the end, and while he didn’t pass the ball effectively, he ran 8 times for 95 yards, showing that dual-threat ability. But it was with the game on the line on the final play of regulation that Maye pulled off this stunner and clinic on how to extend the play and make it work for a clutch touchdown:

Not bad for holding the ball for about 12 seconds. Unfortunately, the Titans held the ball a long time in overtime, kicked a field goal, and when Maye tried to answer that, he forced a deep ball on first down that he probably didn’t need to and that was easily picked off to end the game at 20-17.

So, he’ll never be the LOAT, he may never reach Josh Allen’s highs, but I see some potential here at least.

Next week: The regular season is already halfway over. Week 10 looks better and starts with an important game in Bengals-Ravens. Giants-Panthers in Germany is maybe the least serious pushing of the NFL product in decades. Broncos in Kansas City loses some luster after that performance Sunday, but never discount a division game’s chances for fvckery. Steelers-Commanders is absolutely a better game this year than Eagles-Cowboys will be. SNF is Lions-Texans, a game that could have been good with Nico Collins and Stefon Diggs, but I don’t think Houston stands much of a chance without those guys. Dolphins-Rams on MNF will hopefully come with some touchdowns.

NFL 2024 Week 9 Predictions: Groin Groans Edition

Even with an extra hour this weekend, I’m still very late in getting these NFL Week 9 picks ready. It’s been a long week, and with the election this Tuesday, it could be even tougher to stay productive with time (i.e. not doomscrolling and blocking pro-fascist shitbirds) this week.

But when I look at the Week 9 schedule, I think what a great time this was for Lions-Packers, what should have been the Game of the Week. Maybe it will get there, but I’m bummed out that Jordan Love has a groin injury, Josh Jacobs has an ankle injury, and they’re going to try playing in what could be a rain game. Doesn’t sound ideal at all if you ask me.

But I’m focused on a lot of streaks this week as I’ve already written about and will note below.

This Week’s Articles

NFL Week 9 Predictions

The Jets finally came through for me, and I certainly called my shot on this game:

https://x.com/ScottKacsmar/status/1852196245957132793

Pats-Titans: Oof. That’s what you call a 1 p.m. Sunday game. I think the Patriots have probably played better football, but I’m going Titans just because I’m not sure where they get another win right now, and I don’t see them going 1-16.

Saints-Panthers: Double oof. Spread is a bit high for a road favorite in a divisional game who hasn’t won a game since Week 2 and is only just getting Derek Carr back, but that speaks volumes about how bad the Panthers are on both sides of the ball right now. Saints end their losing streak here.

Broncos-Ravens: One of the most interesting games this week as I could see the Broncos winning by 1-7 points or losing by 1-24 points. No typos. Just depends which version of Bo Nix shows up, but I’m going to go with the Denver cover in a loss. Maybe a 24-16 game that looks respectable for them on the road.

Raiders-Bengals: Joe Burrow is just 5-5 SU in games where he’s a touchdown favorite, which is an abysmal record. I think the Raiders can keep it close. Backdoor cover against the Chiefs last week.

Chargers-Browns: Big expectations for a fun game between Herbert and Jameis. I could see both teams scoring 20+, but don’t expect Jameis to get away with a game-ending pick in back-to-back weeks. I’ll take the Chargers to win.

Cowboys-Falcons: Seems like two teams headed in opposite directions and the Falcons should win. But that’s why I’m going to zag on this one and think Dallas shows up when the lights aren’t bright and they can score enough this week on the road to get a late win. Minimal pass rush for Dak Prescott to worry about.

Dolphins-Bills: I never trust Miami in games like this. Josh Allen owns them and the Bills are getting back to dominating the scoreboard with the huge KC game coming soon.

Commanders-Giants; This first meeting was when the Commanders went 7-for-7 at scoring a FG on every drive. I think they move the ball well again and find the end zone a few times in this one. Daniel Jones has to be running out of chances to start games for this team.

Bears-Cardinals: Bears lost last week on a Hail Mary while the Cardinals came back from a 9-point deficit to win on the last play. Another one where I think momentum is flipped, but I’m still taking the road underdog to win as I think the Cardinals struggle to run so freely against that defense, and Caleb Williams will play better than he did last week. Arizona’s just not very trustworthy right now to stack wins.

Jaguars-Eagles: Jags are playing better but I think the Eagles looked great last week and should have few problems against this defense.

Rams-Seahawks: Could be close, but it’s as simple as the Seahawks are down DK Metcalf and the Rams have their top 2 WRs back healthy. Or at least healthy enough to play the game. Allegedly.

Lions-Packers: Teased it above but I’m going to go Lions in the first matchup. Think the Packers can beat them in Detroit though like they did last season when the road team won both matchups. Just bad timing here with Love’s groin and the way the Lions are hot offensively. Plus I assume Tom Brady is calling this game for FOX and it seems like all of his games see the favorite run away with things.

Colts-Vikings: No, I do not see the Colts playing an 11th-straight game decided by 1-6 points to tie the NFL record set by the 2010-11 Cowboys. I also don’t think they hand Minnesota a 3rd-straight loss, and that’s why I think Vikings rebound and win by 7+. Of course, this is a rematch of the game that saw a 33-0 comeback by Minnesota two years ago, but I think it’s more likely the Vikings win this one by 33 points this time than need such a huge comeback.

Bucs-Chiefs: The Chiefs win but don’t cover. What’s new? I think it’s more interesting if Mike Evans and Chris Godwin were healthy, but you have to basically be the Chiefs to lose your top two receivers and still figure things out to win games. But I do think Baker Mayfield has a shot to at least push the Chiefs into a higher-scoring game than they’re used with 28 straight games finishing under 51.5 points, and they haven’t scored more than 28 points in KC (Arrowhead) since Week 7 last year.