With Week 3 in the NFL, you always have to make that crucial decision on which week of data to trust: Week 1 or Week 2. Sometimes a team plays great or plays like shit in both games, which makes it a little easier. But you could also have a team beat up on two terrible teams to help make them look better, and you could have a team that loses a pair of tough games to contenders.
At this point, nobody knows anything. I think that’s reflected well with so many small spreads this week and the fact that the NFC West is the only division with multiple 2-0 teams as this is going to be a competitive season across the board. At least until the QB injuries set in as that’s already getting out of hand with possibly 5 backups starting this wekeend.
But I honestly can’t remember a tougher week of picking games, which I’ll get into below.
This Week’s Articles
Patrick Mahomes Turns 30: The Best There Is, the Best There Was, the Best There Ever Will Be? – I had this planned for months for Mahomes’ 30th birthday, and bookmark this link as I plan to update it with his records and accolades as time goes on.
2025 NFL Quarterback Rankings Week 3: Injuries Are Sadly Piling Up Quickly to Joe Burrow, Jayden Daniels, J.J. McCarthy – Latest QB rankings with an early admission that I’m getting sick of Jalen Hurts already
Scott’s Seven NFL Picks: Week 3 – How I’m betting Justin Jefferson vs. Ja’Marr Chase, Chiefs vs. Giants, and a parlay for Lions-Ravens
NFL Week 3 Predictions
Already took a loss on the spread Thursday night, and I expect a rough week as this is a tough schedule.
This is so difficult because I could be sold either way on the moneyline for basically every game except maybe Packers-Browns and Saints-Seahawks.
Could the Bucs slip up at home with a beat up offensive line as Tyrod Taylor gives the Jets an improved QB over Justin Fields’ no-show last week? Sure, it’s possible.
How will Mac Jones perform another week in place of Brock Purdy, or what about Marcus Mariota taking over for Jayden Daniels? I’m going with Pete Carroll to get the upset win for that reason as Geno has to play better than Monday night.
I know I like the under better in GB-CLE and KC-NYG than any ML/spread pick.
Steelers-Patriots? Beats me. My gut says New England, so that probably means Tomlin gets to 2-1. Vrabel isn’t Belichick when it comes to owning the Steelers.
Jake Browning deja vu? He already repeated his comeback win against Jacksonville from 2023 last week. Guess who else he did that to in 2023? The Vikings, who were also starting a backup QB that day (Mullens). It just feels right to bet against Carson Wentz too. Always has.
I like the Chargers because with the emergence of 3 quality WRs in that offense, that should be enough to beat an overrated Denver defense that doesn’t seem to shut down the good offenses. I do like J.K. Dobbins to score a TD against his former team though.
Feel good about Ravens prevailing as I just don’t trust the Detroit defense to slow them down Monday night. But it should be a good game for the over.
Captain Comeback: NFL Analysis by Scott Kacsmar 