Some days it’s really hard to get the motivation to talk about football and ignore what’s going on in the country. This weekend is one of those times, but I’m going to get these picks out before Sunday’s games as I always have. That doesn’t mean I’m not disgusted with ICE and what’s happening in Minnesota, and the way MAGA will support anything their guy does no matter how depraved it is or how hypocritical it makes them look.
I hope justice is served for these people, but I have my doubts.
In a just world.
2025 Conference Championship Predictions
So, we got two games on Sunday to decide who plays in Super Bowl 60. I have in-depth previews and picks already for them.
I think Jarrett Stidham makes it a game because his OL is way better than the Chargers/Texans and Denver is a tough place to play. But his inexperience will show up and be the difference. Denver’s best hope is turnover regression continues in their favor and that pass rush dominates Maye in his first road playoff game. Remember, he’s been playing poorly at home. Now he’s on the road, but that’s why the spread moved ~6 points in going from Bo Nix to Stidham. I’ll always believe the Broncos win this game if Nix was healthy and starting, but we’ll see what happens today.
As for the NFC game, many ways that can play out. Watch which QB protects the ball better and doesn’t give up the short fields, especially the way the Seahawks have been feasting on short fields since November. Make Darnold drive a long field. Watch the 3rd down matchup of Rams’ offense (underwhelming on 3rd down despite facing shortest distance) vs. No. 1 Seattle defense as that could be decisive too.
Sean McVay is a man now (he’s 40), and he’s been the man in close playoff games with a 7-2 record in one-score games and 6-1 record in games decided by 1-5 points. But I think the Seahawks get this one at home by a FG in overtime again. Stafford has taken a Mike Macdonald defense to overtime in 3-of-4 meetings since 2023. I’m predicting another here as these teams have played two very tight games at the end this year.
Super Bowl 49 rematch it is, and it won’t come close to touching that game’s legacy.
Fitting too since 2015 was about the last decent year we had as a country.
Every NFL team is fairly flawed in 2025. But someone has to win this thing. Someone (me) just slept on the couch for 4 hours and feels wide awake at 7 AM and is writing this very quickly instead of running up to bed to finish this sleep on the eve of the best weekend in the NFL season, the divisional round.
But my mind is finally clear on what’s going to happen. I have the vision with some themes in mind, so let’s get right to it.
NFL Divisional Round Predictions
Bills 23, Broncos 20
49ers 20, Seahawks 16
Patriots 20, Texans 13
Rams 26, Bears 23
Second-year QBs Bo Nix and Caleb Williams are denied from an 8th game-winning drive on the season.
The Bills’ pass defense stops Nix, coming through for Allen in a way that’s going to be similar to how Peyton/Brees/Rodgers won their first rings with their defenses making timely playoff stops in crunch time.
The Bears miss a game-tying FG in the cold to deny us OT as the Rams get lucky and escape with the 3-point win.
Sam Darnold and C..J. Stroud are who we thought they were.
Darnold’s oblique injury from Thursday limits his effectiveness and the 49ers again hold the Seahawks, who struggle in 3rd down/red zone, under 18 points as Shanahan/Purdy keep the streak alive of reaching the NFC-CG.
Houston’s defense plays very well but Stroud makes some critical mistakes without Collins, and this time it’s the Patriots who score a defensive TD and win with 13 offensive points (ring a bell?).
That’d set up for just the third time ever and second in a non-strike year a Conference Championship Game round that’s two division rematches: 49ers vs. Rams, Patriots vs. Bills.
Not sure why these won’t embed this week but there’s the AFC and NFC previews + 7 picks including parlays on underdogs, interception throwers, and TD scorers.
The 2025 NFL season has been so hard to predict that I wish I could find a way to write off all 14 playoff teams. The good news is 13 of them will lose in the next month, and this is the moment where I make that prediction for the last team standing.
There are so many teams that I feel like you can immediately write off for one huge reason that will inevitably doom them in trying to win 3-4 playoff games in a row:
Panthers – They’re just not good enough.
Patriots – Schedule merchants who aren’t ready to go the distance
Steelers – Tomlin’s playoff defense will eventually implode
Texans – Defense is great but that offense is going to tank them eventually
Chargers – Offensive line won’t hold up for 4 road wins
Broncos – Stagnant offense that waits until the 4th quarter to score will doom them
Bears – Way too reliant on D/ST fueling late-game comebacks
Packers – Not enough horses to go on No. 7 seed run without Parsons and Kraft
That leaves six teams who I feel can win it all even though they have a glaring issue that concerns me. But it’s something I feel the rest of the team can cover up for a game or two that they can maybe squeak by.
Bills – Run defense has been playing better and not sure who in the AFC can really run wild on them.
Jaguars – A shame one has to lose Sunday but this could either be Trevor Lawrence’s chance to be Eli/Flacco/Foles or he implodes with too much responsibility
Seahawks – I don’t trust Sam Darnold but he probably has the best situation going for him and he almost beat the Rams after throwing 4 INTs because of that team support.
49ers – Still think a core that’s been to two Super Bowls can get back home for SB 60 but the injuries (Bosa, Warner, Pearsall, etc.) make it so tough on the road.
Eagles – Yes, their offense should probably have them in the first category, but this is why track record matters and I’m still willing to give the 2-time NFC champs with the reigning SB MVP a shot (defense is better than a year ago too).
Rams – Probably played as well as any team has all year but they’ve blown five games and struggle to close and it’s usually the little things (short yardage runs, FG kicking, 4th down stops on D, etc.).
So how do I see it playing out? Many, many ways if I’m being honest. But if you want one version of my vision today, here it goes:
Rams take care of the Panthers, Packers eliminate the Bears, and the Eagles take out the 49ers this weekend in the NFC.
Bills outlast the Jags, the Chargers go chargering in New England, and the Steelers finally win one for Tomlin to take out the best defense.
Seattle survives a scare from Green Bay in the 7-1 matchup, and the Eagles find a way again to deny McVay and Stafford.
Buffalo eliminates Denver for the second year in a row, and the Steelers lose a game they should have won in New England.
Vic Fangio puts Sam Darnold in a blender and he implodes against that secondary like everyone expected him to do.
The Bills do it to the Patriots again at Foxboro as Josh Allen has his first playoff game-winning drive while Maye can’t close again.
Super Bowl 60 is a rematch from Week 17: Bills vs. Eagles but in good weather. However, the Bills’ lack of wideouts hurts them against that defense again, and the Eagles find a way to repeat despite hearing all year how their offense is garbage. But don’t sleep on that defense, and I still think Jalen Hurts has the ability to rise to the occasion with the talent around him to make some necessary plays that he didn’t really have to do last postseason. This time, he gets it done and the Eagles do in fact pull off the repeat.
I don’t love it. In fact, I’d rather see something like Texans vs. 49ers since I bet on it over a month ago, or maybe the Packers do the unthinkable and go to the Super Bowl as the first No. 7 seed after I picked them the last two years to do so.
But this is where I am. I’m also very open to the Rams getting it done by actually closing games out, which would mean getting rid of the Eagles in the divisional round and getting some revenge on Darnold for that blown 16-point lead in what was the game of the year for the regular season. Jacksonville winning this weekend would also throw a huge wrench in my vision, but if that happens, then I really do believe Lawrence can do the Eli/Flacco/Foles thing here.
We’re overdue for one of those anyway, aren’t we?
NFL Wild Card Picks
Already let the cat out of the bag with this weekend’s picks, but for spread purposes, here are my wild card picks:
Rams 26, Panthers 20 – That spread (Rams -10.5) is too high but the Rams move on
Packers 24, Bears 17- Snow game? Run the ball, GB.
Bills 24, Jaguars 20 – Maybe lower scoring than expected, but I think the Bills will have more balanced offense and Lawrence will have a big pick.
Eagles 20, 49ers 17 – Lowest scoring game of the week.
Patriots 23, Chargers 20 – Dicker the Kicker choke incoming? Does Maye have a Tuck Rule moment in him for his first playoff game?
Steelers 26, Texans 23 – More points than expected as Aaron Rodgers finds a way to get it done against the top defense.
This Week’s Articles
Guess I really wrote this ass-backwards this week, but here are links to my final QB rankings of 2025 (won’t be doing anymore until July), Fraud Alert Ratings for 2025 playoff teams, and about 12,000 words in full previews on every Wild Card game.
We’ve reached the final weekend of the NFL 2025 regular season, and it’s hard to remember a crazier season than this with so many new contenders and so many favorites falling off. Who would ever have believed that Philip Rivers (4) would throw more touchdowns in December than Patrick Mahomes (0 in 2 games) in 2025?
I just took a sneak peak at where my preseason predictions stand, and while I was expecting the absolute worst, it looks like they’ll either be slightly better than 2024, and no worse than 2020 or 2022. But I’ll post those results on Monday morning, and I plan on doing a pretty full week of content to wrap up 2025’s regular season and get going on playoff coverage for what should be one of the hardest postseasons to predict.
Is there any “gimme” game in this playoffs besides maybe the No. 5 seed in the NFC going to the NFC South winner? I don’t think so. Anyone can beat anyone here, and we’ve even seen the Rams already lose in Carolina, so even that 5-4 matchup is possibly up for grabs.
But we have three division title games (well, one is a quasi-division title game) this weekend, and we could see the final NFL games ever involving the likes of Travis Kelce, Pete Carroll, and Aaron Rodgers. Maybe the last game John Harbaugh ever coaches for the Ravens too, the 40th edition of Harbaugh vs. Tomlin.
My picks have a parlay for the Ravens-Steelers, Seahawks-49ers, and two NFC South games. I also have picks for Myles Garrett, Travis Kelce, and a parlay of big winners.
NFL Week 18 Predictions
Hoping to finish strong, but it’s always a tough week when you don’t know how motivated the eliminated teams will be, or how many snaps starters will get for the playoff teams.
CAR-TB and NO-ATL: Give me that NFC South special. The Bucs win on Saturday but still get eliminated on Sunday after Atlanta beats the Saints without Chris Olave (pulmonary embolism; get well soon, brother). 3-way tie at 8-9 goes to Carolina, which will hopefully be the impetus for the NFL to stop giving division winners a home playoff game automatically.
SEA-SF: It’s the biggest one and I respect Seattle being probably the best team in the league this year with all three losses coming in the final minute. But I am going with the 49ers at home as I think that offense is peaking and the Seahawks have a QB in Darnold who has to prove he won’t implode in these moments. I still don’t trust him.
CLE-CIN: Myles Garrett gets his sack record, Bengals still win by 8+. If I was Joe Burrow, I’d lay down to give Garrett the cheapest sack possible for the record. See if he takes the bait. Cause it’s Burrow, you know there will probably be other opportunities later in the game, but that’s what I would do to get it out of the way.
DAL-NYG: *Yawn* Dak beats Giants again to get Cowboys to 8-8-1.
GB-MIN: Are we really about to see Clayton Tune against a Flores defense? Yikes, what an awful way to lose the under 8.5 wins bet on the 2025 Vikings.
IND-HOU: Tempted to take Indy ATS, but I think Houston can win a 20-6 type of snoozer to end the season for the Colts with Riley Leonard at QB.
TEN-JAX: I have Jags winning the AFC South here, but I think Cam Ward can end his rookie season on a high note by at least covering the big spread.
KC-LV: Kenny Pickett returns? Chiefs should win but would it really be beneficial to the draft? Just get Travis Kelce his 10 yards quickly and be done with it.
DET-CHI: What a turnaround for these teams since Week 2. I think the Bears cover at home to get that No. 2 seed and drop Detroit to a losing record without Ben Johnson this year.
LAC-DEN: Trey Lance gets a start, and I know Keenan Allen needs 6 catches for a nice incentive. But I’m going to trust Harbaugh enough to not get embarrassed and cover the spread here. Denver wins the No. 1 seed though.
MIA-NE: This might have been interesting in Miami where the Patriots tend to struggle, but it’s at home in January, so they’ll beat up on a bad Miami team here.
WAS-PHI: Yes, the Eagles can cover without Jalen Hurts against a poor defense and backup QB.
ARI-LAR: I find it hard to believe that Sean McVay will really play starters even if he’s locked into the No. 6 seed. But the Cardinals are 50/50 to get completely blown out, so I’ll take his word on it and take the Rams to cover.
NYJ-BUF: We’ll see if Josh Allen dips after the first snap to keep his streak alive, but I think he should at least do the old Peyton Manning strategy in Indy where you play a drive or two before getting out of there. Plus, it’s the Jets, so he very well could watch James Cook pile up some rushing yards to win the rushing title, then set up a tush push TD to keep Allen’s streak of 40-TD seasons alive.
BAL-PIT: I wrote a detailed preview with a +1200 SGP in the picks piece above, but I honestly think the Metcalf suspension is going to doom them in the end. That decision to give the most WR-centric passer ever one good wideout all season, and then for him to be suspended while they face AFC North defenses in bad weather is just more bad luck for Rodgers, who I honestly think should come back in 2026 if the Steelers can find a way to get him another WR.
But I picked Ravens over Packers in the Super Bowl before this absurd season started, and I’m not backing down now on the Baltimore side of things. A run is still possible in this AFC but let’s see how healthy Lamar looks.
While Netflix is traditionally shady about releasing the true ratings of its programming, the NFL probably saw a ratings decline over last Christmas because all three games on Thursday featured a third-string quarterback, and the only team that really had playoff hopes was Denver, who are not a big draw on the national stage at this point.
But in true NFL fashion, the underdogs were 3-0 ATS and the Lions even ended their season in embarrassing fashion by losing 23-10 to the Vikings, who started Max Brosmer at quarterback and finished with 3 net passing yards. That’s the fewest net passing yards in a win since the 2006 Texans were below zero.
That’ll end the fifth year together for Jared Goff and Dan Campbell, and that disappointing result combined with another potentially disastrous ending this weekend for Baltimore had me thinking about the Five-Year Rule again.
This is something I first wrote for FiveThirtyEight in 2017 about how no team has won its first championship after starting the same quarterback for the same coach for more than five years.
It’s continued every year since, and you can actually go back to 1950 and it still stands true for all NFL championship-winning duos. Two of the biggest tests to this rule, which I’ve been highlighting for years now in their season previews, are the Bills (Sean McDermott-Josh Allen) and Ravens (John Harbaugh-Lamar Jackson).
They are both in Year 8 together since those quarterbacks were drafted in 2018, and neither has still reached a Super Bowl, let alone won one. Both can blame Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs for hogging up that spot so often as well as going 5-0 in the playoffs against their teams.
But the Chiefs are gone this year. That paves the way for Buffalo and Baltimore, but things have literally never been the same for the Ravens, my preseason SB pick, since Derrick Henry fumbled on opening night in Buffalo and the Ravens blew that 15-point lead in the fourth quarter.
The Ravens have been 1-5, Lamar Jackson was knocked out with that hamstring injury, they were still 6-5 after he struggled upon return, and now they’re 7-8 and facing a must-win game at Green Bay on Saturday night to prevent the Steelers from locking up the AFC North before even having to take the field in Week 17.
Yet, season on the line, and it’s looking like the final meaningful game of the Lamar Jackson-John Harbaugh era won’t even have Jackson on the field after he left last week’s loss against the Patriots with a back injury.
You can talk about Jackson trade rumors, but the fact is Harbaugh is always the one likely to get the boot here after a ton of disappointment in the playoffs since his only ring in 2012. The team’s lack of complementary football this year just might be the final nail in the coffin for Harbaugh after 18 years on the job.
The Five-Year Rule will persist after claiming one of its strongest challengers. We’ll see if it can outlast the pairing of Allen and McDermott too, but if there’s anything clear about this 2025 season, it’s that nothing is a given anymore.
The Broncos are a good bet to get the No. 1 seed and they had to stop Kansas City’s third-string quarterback on a final drive. The Rams are Super Bowl favorites despite already blowing four games, including two games as a 8+ point favorite. They could do it a third time in Atlanta on Monday night, a game that could decide Matthew Stafford’s MVP outcome.
It’s a good thing Stafford and McVay got it done right away in 2021, or else I’d be talking about the Five-Year Rule for them and how this is do or die time for this pairing.
I even said on Twitter that going chalk on Christmas was a bad idea because they’re all big spreads in divisional rematches. Yet I still did it because I hated the slate on paper that much, and yep, the results speak for themselves.
HOU-LAC: My most anticipated game this weekend because it should feel like a playoff game even if that laxed SoFi crowd wouldn’t make it sound like one. But I think it has big implications as AFC West is still in play for the Chargers, and the Texans are rolling with 7 straight wins. I’m going to trust that defense against Herbert’s OL to get it done too.
BAL-GB: Sounds like Jordan Love (concussion) is good to go against Tyler Huntley, so while the Packers are a bad spread bet as a favorite this year, I think they take care of the Ravens here as I just trust LaFleur more than Harbaugh right now.
SEA-CAR: Panthers are 5-1 ATS as a home underdog. If the Titans can lose a 30-24 game to these Seahawks, I have to believe Carolina can keep it close, if not add another shocking upset to their list.
ARI-CIN: Your classic big Jacoby Brissett stat line + failed 4QC/GWD as Burrow piles up numbers in a meaningless game.
TB-MIA: Bucs are in a free-fall, but I’m just going to trust them to pick it up here.
JAX-IND: Should be a good one with points, but I think the Colts are playing awful defense and Trevor Lawrence is cooking for maybe the first time ever in his career.
NE-NYJ: Somehow, the Jets are even worse than they were the last time these teams met.
NO-TEN: Call me crazy but I think the KC win will energize this Tennessee team to go on a little run to end this season even if Shough’s been a better rookie QB than Ward. He does have more to work with, including a coach with a brain.
PIT-CLE: I think this game will be ugly as hell with almost no passes from the Steelers to deny Myles Garrett breaking the sack record against them. But I think they’ll force Shedeur into mistakes that set up scores.
NYG-LV: The Giants have Dart and the Raiders need that No .1 pick more. I’d advise the Raiders to lose this Tank Bowl and secure the No. 1 pick.
PHI-BUF: Both teams would love to run more than pass in this matchup, but if they are forced to pass, I’m still trusting Allen at home more than Hurts on the road.
CHI-SF: 49ers haven’t punted since November and it sounds like George Kittle is playing. 49ers can win out and not have to leave Levi’s all the way through Super Bowl 60. Give me the hot team here over the team that relies on turnovers and insane comebacks.
LAR-ATL: Stafford’s MVP case is sealed or destroyed here. I feel bad for him cause this spread really should not be that high given the way the Rams are struggling on defense, the Davante injury, the Atlanta pass rush, and it’s not hard to see Kirk Cousins dealing with his full weapons and pulling this one out. I’m not sure Stafford can survive a fifth loss and win MVP. His stats aren’t as good or consistent as 2016 Matt Ryan’s were. Just have to hope the Falcons do some Falconing and the Rams prevail.
I just remembered a few hours ago that we have two Saturday NFL games for Week 16. One (PHI-WAS) makes me think I don’t mind cleaning the cat’s shit boxes per Saturday routine and missing some plays, and the other (GB-CHI) might be great.
But it’ll take a lot to top what we watched Thursday night when the NFC Game of the Year lived up to the hype and then some. Rams-Seahawks was so good, so shocking, and so impactful that I can’t help but name it the Game of the Year for the 2025 NFL regular season.
Then I saw some people note we’ve had a bunch of GOTY candidates, and I had to come up with a list to see if there’s any truth to that. So, here is my top 5 games of the year for 2025:
Week 16 – Seahawks 38, Rams 37
Week 1 – Bills 41, Ravens 40
Week 3 – Eagles 33, Rams 26
Week 12 – Chiefs 23, Colts 20
Week 4 – Cowboys 40, Packers 40
Probably not good for the Rams that two of the top three games involve them blowing leads of 19 and 16 points in the second half to the defending champs and the leader in their division right now. But the Rams have played entertaining games, and even the first Rams-Seahawks game was close to the top for watching how close Seattle was despite four Darnold interceptions.
We still have some big games left this year, though it’s a huge disappointment that both Commanders-Eagles games are trash and of little relevance. Those were supposed to be huge, but there were just too many injuries for Jayden Daniels and company this season.
The last game of the year for Patrick Mahomes, and my NFL Week 16 picks explain why I’ve been saying for weeks that Drake Maye will have his first 300-yard passing game in Baltimore.
NFL Week 16 Predictions
I’m not sure if I’ve ever had a prediction where I took a team to cover at +1.5 and the opponent to win, but I did it for Rams-Seahawks and I can’t believe Seahawks by 1 worked out in the end. It’s the first game in NFL history where both teams scored a touchdown in overtime and the second team walked it off with a successful 2PC.
But could you imagine the outrage if the total fluke 2PC that tied the game at 30 in the 4Q was the game-winning 2PC in OT? What a disaster that would be, and I would imagine some rules committee discussions this offseason over that one (already saw Sean McVay said there will be).
WAS-PHI: Division games are tricky but I think Eagles get the win and I like DeVonta Smith for props (O56.5, TD).
GB-CHI: It was close at the end last time, and I think with the Micah Parsons injury and homefield switching to the turnover-crazed Bears, they get this one for the big NFC North lead.
LAC-DAL: Cowboys could be eliminated Saturday. But it’s a bigger game either way for the Chargers, and I’m trusting them with the better coach and defense despite the spread.
MIN-NYG: Feels like a game where Dart could get injured, and I think McCarthy will have a good stat line on that defense.
BUF-CLE: Myles Garrett gets his record-tying sack, Bills cover the spread anyway.
NYJ-NO: Tyler Shough is playing well and the Saints cover the laughably large spread after giving up 6 TD to Trevor Lawrence.
TB-CAR: I like the over 45.5 more than trusting either team on the spread, but I think Todd Bowles sees himself getting fired if they blow this division, so give me TB.
CIN-MIA: Hedging on Miami cover, but how funny would it be if the offense lit it up after Tua was benched? Ewers just needs to rely on that running game against the Bengals.
KC-TEN: With the Chiefs facing the 2 worst teams in the NFL this year in their last 3 games (Titans and Raiders), I’m sure fans will be very rational about how they play with Patrick Mahomes on IR. Very rational.
JAX-DEN: Could be a good one and a playoff preview, but I think the Broncos pull it out on a late FG.
ATL-ARI: Maybe a shootout? I’ll trust Captain Kirk in crunch time with his pass rush against Jacoby.
PIT-DET: Expecting solid scoring here, but I think the Lions win a 31-24 game here as they clearly need it more than the Steelers. Expect big things from Amon-Ra St. Brown. 20+ yards in the 1Q for starters. Maybe 2+ catches on the first drive. Exactly the kind of WR who can put up numbers on this defense.
LV-HOU: I tried the Raiders last week and they got crushed 31-0. Screw it, give me Houston and that defense.
NE-BAL: I already said I’m all in on Drake Maye having his first 300-yard passing game, but how about his first 4QC win too? He’s 0-7 in his career. Baltimore is the perfect opponent to do both against, the weather sounds like it’ll be fine, and I can see the Patriots pulling this one out 27-24 late to fill in some gaps in Maye’s resume. Just don’t tell me he’s MVP over Stafford.
SF-IND: I was originally liking the Colts ATS, but -5.5 isn’t as enticing as -6.5. Hard to say though. Philip Rivers should be better in game 2, but I think the 49ers win it after finding out they control their destiny for the No. 1 seed with Sam Darnold in Week 18 only standing in their way really. Could be a repeat of last year when the Lions beat Darnold’s Vikings in prime time to end the regular season and decide the No. 1 seed.
This 2025 NFL season has been crazy enough as is, but to bring back a 44-year-old Philip Rivers after five years away from the game? He’s literally a semifinalist for the 2026 HOF class at the moment. Then to call him up on a short week against an elite defense like Seattle? Good luck with that, but I’m not sure I’ve ever had more of a morbid curiosity in seeing how a game plays out than that one.
But beyond Rivers’ return, it is a fascinating week when you have multiple home underdogs who are on 10-game winning streaks in the Patriots and Broncos. Not only that, but they’re playing teams in the Bills and Packers who have some really bad losses as big favorites against the spread this season. Not to mention the Patriots already beat Buffalo in Buffalo.
Throw in the 6-7 Chiefs still being a 5.5-point favorite despite losing two in a row and losing to the 9-4 Chargers in Week 1, and I’m not sure if it’s the oddsmakers accurately assessing these new contenders in 2025, or if people are just betting with their hearts from last year and not adjusting to what’s going on this year.
Who’s right? Who’s actually a good team in 2025? It’s hard to say because it really does feel like a season where anyone can beat anybody, and these teams have four weeks to figure things out before the playoffs.
In looking at the NFL awards going into the final quarter, I see a vision for how the MVP can be decided in Week 16, Myles Garrett vs. Micah Parsons for DPOY, and 6 coaches who can have a case for Coach of the Year. But if Philip Rivers plays well, he’s a lock for Comeback Player of the Year, something I didn’t even have time to consider when I wrote that Monday night.
As for the QB rankings, Patrick Mahomes undoubtedly was let down by drops more on Sunday night than any other game in his career.
For Week 15 picks, I have parlays for Bills-Patriots, Chargers-Chiefs, Dolphins-Steelers, and yes, a Philip Rivers-themed SGP.
NFL Week 15 Predictions
I had the Falcons covering on TNF, but what a crazy 14-point comeback that was. Tampa really blew multiple opportunities for game-ending fumble recoveries, and Baker Mayfield missed that game-sealing throw on 2nd-and-14. Just another brutal loss for the Bucs (7-7), another common division winner having a down year.
NYJ-JAX: Don’t love the Jags with such a huge spread but Brady Cook isn’t any good, right?
ARI-HOU: There’s a decent chance Jacoby Brissett puts up a better stat line against Houston than Allen and Mahomes did. But I don’t think Houston scores enough to cover the spread, but the Texans will win.
BUF-NE: I’m taking the Bills to remind NE who’s run this division since 2020. A lot of bad turnovers for the Bills in the first matchup but the defense played fine for a half. Stefon Diggs carried the passing game for NE. I think Buffalo clamps down and gets the split even if the Patriots are still winning the AFC East this year.
LAC-KC: I can’t trust the Chiefs to cover right now, especially not 5.5. Both QBs don’t have their starting OTs, but the Chiefs better find a way to get a pass rush going against the Chargers’ joke of a line. This is basically their last stand for this season mattering.
LV-PHI: Give me Kenny Pickett to cover the spread in a low-scoring game. But it sure would be hilarious if he led a GWD in Philly.
BAL-CIN: I prefer the over more than the spread here. But I think the Ravens protect the ball far better than on Thanksgiving and put up their share of points on the Bengals, who just can’t stop anyone again.
WAS-NYG: Division games are always weird but I think Jaxson Dart can win by 3 against a poor defense that J.J. McCarthy beat 31-0.
CLE-CHI: Just feels like a sloppy game where Caleb Williams might need to lead a GWD to get the win by 1-7.
TEN-SF: Don’t believe the Titans after last week’s win. I think the 49ers win by 14+
DET-LAR: Rams will play well at home while the Lions won’t be able to keep up with that offense. Not enough DBs to handle Puka and Davante.
CAR-NO: Saints could certainly pull off another upset, but I think Carolina makes the most of another Tampa loss and gets the win here. close game though.
GB-DEN: Going to trust the Broncos at home to get it done. Big shock that these defenses have 22 turnovers between them, but I think the Broncos pull it out in the 4Q.
IND-SEA: As long as Darnold doesn’t throw a pick parade, I think Seattle wins big. Rivers should play the whole game though. They have no one else. That’s why they’re desperate enough to start grandpa.
MIN-DAL: I like a Jefferson TD but Cowboys win by 7.
MIA-PIT: No T.J. Watt but still shouldn’t be an issue. Steelers have won 22 straight at home on MNF and it’s going to be under 20 degrees. Dolphins will turtle up on the road again.
It’s a really critical NFL Week 14 in the AFC with games like Colts vs. Jaguars, Bengals vs. Bills, Steelers vs. Ravens, and Texans vs. Chiefs.
It could be the day we circle back to as the day the Colts blew their shot in the AFC South, or the day the Steelers set themselves on the path to their first losing record since 2003, or even the day the Chiefs fell to 6-7 and went on to miss the playoffs.
Or it could jumpstart those teams on a run to the playoffs. We’ll just have to watch and see what happens today.
The first link is a 6,000-word review of where the contenders stand right now, and why 2025 has been such a weird year for so many favorites struggling. Lots of talk about regression in turnovers, close games, and easy schedules.
The QB rankings look at Joe Burrow’s odd return, the curious case of Bryce Young, and the Vikings somehow found a quarterback even worse than J.J. McCarthy.
The NFL Week 14 picks have more detailed picks in what I like for Colts-Jags, Steelers-Ravens, Texans-Chiefs, and who I like to throw for more yards between Shedeur Sanders and Cam Ward.
NFL Week 14 Predictions
Those Cowboys tricked me again. Same old Dallas: Allowed 44 points in a must-win type of game, George Pickens played poorly, and now they have to hope for the Eagles to collapse, which is possible this year.
MIA-NYJ: Is Tua really 7-0 against the Jets? Let’s make it 8-0.
SEA-ATL: Seahawks can be tricky with the spread but I think a 7-point win from that defense isn’t asking for much. They should make it hard on Kirk Cousins.
NO-TB: Bucs already beat them decisively on the road and have more weapons available now. Backdoor cover is always a possibility but I think they score enough to win by 10+ and get the sweep.
WAS-MIN: It sounds like Jayden Daniels is back, so I’m going with him to end this losing streak for the Commanders.
IND-JAX: Colts haven’t won in Jacksonville since 2014 and I think that streak lasts another year. Offense is struggling and the Jags can get the turnovers/pressure and have been scoring 25+ every week since the bye.
PIT-BAL: The old hedge pick, you never know with this rivalry that loves 3-point games. It sounds like we are getting Aaron Rodgers vs. Lamar Jackson for the first (last?) time in the NFL, though neither comes in playing that well. Can the Steelers stop Derrick Henry after giving up 249 yards last week? I’d be more inclined to pick the Steelers if they didn’t already look bad in their last two games against the Ravens, who seem to have their QB on the right page to deal with this overpaid, disappointing defense.
TEN-CLE: It doesn’t really say anything about Sanders vs. Ward to me. Just says the Browns have better coaching and a much better defense.
CIN-BUF: I’m hedging again as I think the Bengals had the Bills’ number in 2022-23, though we haven’t seen any other matchups outside of that. But the Bills are usually a home winner. They just rarely make it look pretty this year, and the Bengals have been playing better defense the last few games.
DEN-LV: We had to sit through their garbage 10-7 game on TNF a few weeks back. Hard to imagine the Denver offense makes it look that bad again in the afternoon window.
CHI-GB: Packers are home, Jayden Reed is back, and I think they find a way to win by 7 as I just don’t trust the Chicago passing game enough against a defense that has stepped up to most occasions this year. I know Chicago played them well last year, high stakes with the No. 1 seed up for grabs, and GB has been bad at covering spreads like this. But something just tells me GB 27-20.
LAR-ARI: Cardinals have played a lot of teams tough before losing. But I think the Rams roll and show last week was just a blip.
HOU-KC: I believe after Super Bowl 59 I said the next time the Chiefs had to face an elite defense without multiple OL starters, I can’t trust them to win anymore. Here we are, season likely on the line, and they get the No. 1 Houston defense in a game where they’ll be down 3 OL starters, including both tackles. That’s brutal timing, and the Texans are playing well too as a team. Chiefs play much better at home on defense which should be the key to grinding this one out. But Houston has held all but two teams under 21 points, so it’s just a really hard defense to score on and I could already see Nico Collins converting some 3rd-and-12 catch to ice the clock in a 20-17 final for the Texans. Prove me wrong, KC.
PHI-LAC: Going with the Eagles to end their 2-game slide. I still don’t trust the Chargers in games like this and Herbert is only a week removed from surgery. Think he panics to avoid a hit and gets picked.
We’re already four games into NFL Week 13 with the holiday games, and the underdogs were 4-0 SU. More than that, they beat the Lions, Chiefs, Ravens, and Eagles who were all in the top five for Super Bowl 60 odds. It’s the kind of result we keep seeing this year as almost every team who was great in the regular season in 2024 is struggling in 2025.
There is something very strange happening in the NFL this season that's going to lead to people making sweeping generalizations they'll later regret.
All of these teams who have won their division for 2+ years are struggling and at risk to even make the playoffs:
It’s the story of the 2025 NFL season, and Philadelphia’s 24-15 loss to the Bears was especially shocking with the way Chicago ran for over 230 yards between the tackles alone against them. Just pure domination a day after we watched the Bengals turn over the Ravens and beat them down in Baltimore too.
But I feel the need to rant at 7 AM here about the Eagles’ decision to go for 2 in a 24-15 game with 3:10 left. How people think this is a good strategy is still beyond me. I usually rant about this once a year and I think this will have to serve as the 2025 rant on it. While I’m not against going for two early in all cases, there is a point on the clock where it becomes a silly endeavor that just ends the game earlier than it had to end. You could see how dejected the team and fans were after the Eagles, who struggled all day offensively again, failed on their 2PC pass, keeping it a two-possession game.
With how hard it’s become to recover an onside kick, I want no part of the strategy that’s going to lead me to having to recover one (or two). Make that a last resort.
But people still insist this is right when I just can’t get behind that. I’ve shared the data before, and I just updated some of it again to share.
Since 1994 when the NFL brought in the two-point conversion (2PC), we have seen 170 touchdowns scored in the fourth quarter by a team down by exactly 15 points at the time to make it a 9-point game. There were three games where a team did it twice in the quarter (including Bills vs. Ravens in Week 1 this year), so it’s actually 167 games total.
These teams are 11-155-1 (.069) in the game, and that’s not nice at all. It’s a dire situation to be in no matter how you approach it. But here are some more stats
Teams who kick the extra point first down 9 to make it an 8-point game are 135-of-138 on the extra point, and JOEY SLYE has all three misses for three different teams this decade. One of the craziest stats I’ve ever seen as kickers have been automatic in this spot except for one journeyman bum.
Team who go for the 2PC right away down 9 to try to make it a 7-point game are just 13-of-32 (40.6%) on the attempt, including a conversion from Chad Pennington in a 2007 Jets game with 0:00 left, so there was no point in even defending that as the game was over.
Meanwhile, of the 27 teams who kicked the extra point first and wound up scoring a second touchdown and needed a game-tying 2PC, they were 17-of-27 (63.0%). So, it’s all very small sample sizes since 1994, but that’s 40.6% vs. 63.0% for going for 2 early vs. late, giving some credence to the idea that, yes, teams who wait after proving they can score a 2nd TD on this defense have been better at converting for 2 when they had to have it.
Of the 11 teams who came back to win the game, 7 of them did it by scoring a TD/XP + TD/2PC + GW score later.
Four teams won in unique fashion, and three of them have been in this 2025 season as teams get more experimental on when to go for 2. But the main thing I want to stress is there’s never been a game in NFL history where a team won after trailing by 15, scoring a touchdown, converting a 2PC, then scoring another touchdown and either scoring a third time to win the game or going for two a second time to win the game by a point.
2020 Cowboys vs. Falcons: People love citing this example because it was literally 1-of-1 before this season. The Cowboys scored a touchdown with 4:57 left, which is considerably more time than the 3:10 the Eagles had on Friday. They failed on the 2PC, so they were still down 39-30, then they got the ball back, scored a TD/XP, then recovered a ridiculous onside kick to drive for a GW FG in a 40-39 win. All truly made possible for an all-time onside kick blunder.
2025 Bills vs. Ravens: This was Week 1 SNF and it’s another unique game because the Bills are the first team to try both down 15 strategies in the same quarter. They went for the 2PC and failed with 12:51 left. After Baltimore scored again, the Bills were down 40-25, then they switched course and kicked the XP with 3:56 left (40-32). Then they got the Derrick Henry fumble big break, then they got another TD, failed on their third 2PC of the quarter (40-38), then used their timeouts to force a three-and-out before driving for the GW FG (41-40).
2025 Cardinals vs. Titans: Another goofy ass game this year. The Titans were down 21-6, got a touchdown, Joey Slye missed the XP to keep it 21-12, but then the offense got a TD/XP after a Cam Ward interception was fumbled and returned for a touchdown by the offense (21-19). Then they got the ball back and won on a GW FG (22-21) for Slye to redeem himself. But this was a team going for the XP first and getting lucky to win even after it failed.
2025 Jets vs. Bengals: Here we go again with a historic game with a team incorporating multiple strategies. The Jets went for 2 after scoring a TD in a 31-16 game and converted to make it 31-24 with 14:17 left (plenty of time again). But after the Bengals got another TD (38-24), we saw the Jets execute the down 14 strategy next by going for 2 on their first TD drive, making it a 6-point game, then getting the go-ahead TD to go up 39-38 with 1:54 left. So, this win was really more about the down 14 strategy than what they did down 15.
Pretty interesting how we’re seeing the strategies evolve this season, but one thing I’m not seeing is any inherent value in going for 2 early in a game that is way too late like the Eagles faced on Friday. Kick the extra point, make it a 24-16 game, then keep the pressure on Chicago to do something stupid like a fumble, run out of bounds or throw incomplete to stop the clock, etc.
The Bears ended up moving the chains before giving up the ball on a turnover on downs, leaving the Eagles with 1:12 in a 9-point game and a long field. They ended up missing a 52-yard field goal with 0:09 left, and would have still needed an onside kick recovery (lucky if it’s 5% these days) and Hail Mary TD (good luck).
Now, maybe the Bears kick a 47-yard field goal on 4th-and-4 had it been a 24-16 game had the Eagles kicked an extra point instead of failing for 2. But let’s say they do the same thing, then Hurts would have had the ball in a 24-16 game with 70 yards to go in 72 seconds to tie the game. I like my chances a lot better in that spot.
Yet, I knew people would still defend Nick Sirianni’s decision, but I refuse to ever get behind it. With 14:00 left? Absolutely fine. With 7:30 left? Okay. But 3:10? Hell no. Watching it live, I gave up on the game the moment they failed on the 2PC and went to eat a piece of chocolate pie in the kitchen. This shit was over.
Now imagine how the players felt at that moment too. Any number advantage you think exists is so marginal to what impact actually failing on the 2PC does to the game in that spot. The only “information” gleamed here is you’re fvcked.
You know I originally had CHI ATS/PHI ML before switching it up to Eagles by 8. Whoops.
LAR-CAR: Season is really fvcked if the Rams lose this one but I do like the 1H spread better than the full game.
ARI-TB: Sounds like Baker is good to go, so I’m going with TB at home. Gotta get back in the win column.
TEN-JAX: Can the Jags actually blow anyone out? I’ll give TEN a bone to cover if they could cover the Seahawks, they could cover the Jags.
NO-MIA: Meh. Whatever.
SF-CLE: Really looking forward to seeing if Cleveland can match its 2023 upset against a better SF team when they made things tough on Purdy.
ATL-NYJ: All in on the Jeff Ulbrich revenge game for Atlanta’s defense roughing up the Jets.
HOU-IND: Yep, I’ll take the top defense and C.J. Stroud’s return while Daniel Jones has to operate on a fractured fibula. This might be Houston’s last stand in the AFC South.
MIN-SEA: What’s a Brosmer and why will he probably play better than J.J. McCarthy would have? Sam Darnold revenge game too.
BUF-PIT: Read my NFL picks for a parlay and more detail on this game. I’m hedging on the pick, but I really do think the Steelers can win this one with the running game and their takeaways against a shaky Buffalo team missing its OTs.
LV-LAC: Don’t expect much from LV who already lost 20-9 to these Chargers in Week 2.
DEN-WAS: I’ll be getting work done early Sunday night instead of laying on the couch for this one. Should have been flexed.
NYG-NE: Curious to see if Jaxson Dart can force Drake Maye to lead his first 4QC in the NFL, but it’s another horrible defense for Maye to face and one that can’t hold any leads either.
We’re only one game into NFL Week 12 and it’s already a big result as the Houston Texans (6-5) proved they have the best defense this season, and they’re finally above .500 for the first time this season and back in the playoff hunt.
Meanwhile, I warned Buffalo fans all offseason that they would have to deal with turnover regression while not doing a ton to really improve the roster of a team that feasted on fumble recoveries, a schedule that saw them go 2-3 against winning teams, superior field position, and a historically low number of negative plays on offense that never felt sustainable with a quarterback known for his gunslinger ways.
Buffalo Bills 2025 Preview
Schedule sets them up beautifully for No. 1 seed
But is a team that added Palmer, Bosa, White, Hairston really that much better than 2024?
Did I still ultimately buy into the Buffalo hype and predict them to finish as the No.1 seed? Yes. But I never had them going to the Super Bowl this year, and after Thursday night’s loss, it sure looks like they’ll have a hard time winning three straight road games to get there as the Patriots (9-2) are the team that’s taking advantage of an even easier schedule (3 games vs. 4th-place teams compared to first-place schedule) and should win the division.
But nothing is decided yet as we continue to see this weird AFC season where the Patriots, Colts, and Broncos have the best records, and it’s not looking good for the Ravens, Chiefs, and Bills to win those divisions and maybe not even make the playoffs in 2025.
We get a huge game in Kansas City this weekend with the Colts (8-2) coming off a bye week. I did a little preview in the NFL picks piece below for that one, but it’s such an intriguing matchup as the Colts have a lot of things in their favor:
Colts use a lot of play-action passing, which the Chiefs have been horrible against on defense.
Colts have Jonathan Taylor in peak mode, and the Chiefs have allowed James Cook to rush for over 100 this year.
Defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo has been one of the best at making things difficult for Mahomes and the offense.
Ability to play man coverage vs. KC wideouts with Sauce Gardner and Charvarius Ward (back healthy).
Colts had a bye week to prepare for the Chiefs, who have been labeled as predictable in recent losses to Bills and Broncos.
Alas, the Colts have been giving up sacks lately, and the Chiefs need to dial up blitzes and rely on the crowd noise to bother Daniel Jones, who was listed with a calf injury this week. Does his mobility get compromised and that leads to some sacks and takeaways for a KC defense that plays much better at home? We’ll see. Offense also needs to run the ball more when given so many light boxes, and they have ran it well in the last two meetings with Anarumo’s Bengals defenses.
It’s a huge game as a win can legitimize the Colts even more in the AFC. It could also spark the Chiefs to go on a run all the way through the postseason too. A lot on the line.
I wish that game was on at 4:25 PM as I’ll be stuck watching Bears vs. Steelers, which has a one-score game written all over it even if Aaron Rodgers doesn’t play. I’m thinking he will though since it is his last crack at the Bears and the injury isn’t to his throwing hand. But that’s a tough game with the leading defenses in turnovers, and that’s another pivotal one as the Steelers winning as a road underdog would be another blow to Baltimore’s hopes of storming back from 1-5 to win the AFC North.
In the QB rankings this week, I talk about how the Chiefs are failing Patrick Mahomes by going in the opposite direction of QB dependence in a league that is increasingly about making it easier on the QB. Also talked about the sobering losses for the Seahawks and Lions as you just can’t trust Sam Darnold and Jared Goff in big games.
For the picks, I got a Colts-Chiefs parlay, and I say go nuts and bet on the sack props in Raiders vs. Browns.
NFL Week 12 Predictions
Yeah, I thought the Bills could win by a TD, but at least I was right about the under.
NE-CIN: It sounds like Joe Flacco is going to start again instead of Joe Burrow. Not sure I’d change my pick there because I think without Ja’Marr Chase, it’ll be hard to keep up with the Patriots when Cincy has the worst defense in the NFL.
PIT-CHI: Like I said, I think it’s a very close game, and the Bears have been pulling those off this year better than Pittsburgh. Just feels like a Tomlin letdown spot on the road.
NYJ-BAL: Unless I read a parody account, it sounds like Justin Fields has been benched for Tyrod Taylor. Good news. Ravens should still win but I like a backdoor cover for the Jets.
SEA-TEN: I just can’t see the Titans topping 14 points here unless Darnold keeps throwing picks to give them short fields. Seattle should bounce back here.
NYG-DET: No Jaxson Dart. I think the over is a good pick as the Lions should pile up points on a horrible defense in the dome. Less confident in the spread as Jameis could be good for the backdoor.
MIN-GB: Packers haven’t covered these big spreads all year, but from what I’ve seen of J.J. McCarthy, he isn’t going to play well on the road in Lambeau. Give me GB to finally cover one.
IND-KC: Ah, I hedged with the classic Chiefs win but don’t cover. Colts really could win it outright, but I’ll give the Chiefs one more bone at home in a virtual must-win situation. But the Colts have been a thorn in their side for 30 years.
CLE-LV: I’ll take Maxx Crosby and the Raiders to win the sack fest.
JAX-ARI: No real vibe on this one. Think Brissett moves the ball better than Lawrence and the Cardinals find a way at home.
ATL-NO: Another one I don’t have any strong lean for. Falcons are due a win. Turn the offense over to the run game and sack the inexperienced QB in his 3rd start.
PHI-DAL: I like the Philly offense to get on track against that defense and for the Philly defense to slow down Dak and those receivers.
TB-LAR: McVay usually has a good feel for what Bowles is doing. Still not enough weapons for the Bucs. I’ll take the Rams at home by 7.
CAR-SF: Biggest game for the Panthers in years. I think they can keep it close but I like a low-scoring game here.
Captain Comeback: NFL Analysis by Scott Kacsmar 