Category: NFL Game Predictions

NFL Week 14 Predictions: 29-0 Edition

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The NFL probably thought highly of its Week 14 schedule back in April, and I’m not just referring to the way they are forcing Bears-Packers in prime time on us for the 16th season in a row. We also get a usually overrated Cowboys-Washington game that might be decent this time, and Raiders-Chiefs probably won’t deliver the way the league hoped either.

The elephant in the room is the downward spiral the Buffalo Bills have been on, which makes that matchup with Tampa Bay look like not much of a Super Bowl preview. This was supposed to be akin to Kansas City’s 27-24 win in Tampa Bay last season in Week 12, but now I’m just wondering how many turnovers Josh Allen has and if I should bet Mike Evans or Gronk (or both) to score touchdowns on short fields. Bummer.

But maybe the Bills can surprise us in normal weather, unless a December hurricane sweeps into Tampa Bay. Nah, they’re probably safe. Only Bill Belichick — not the LOAT — has the power to control the weather.

Yet if the first game of Week 14 is any indication, maybe we are in store for some wild stuff.

I have full previews at BMR for Ravens-Browns, Bears-Packers, and Rams-Cardinals.

It may not feel like it, but since the late-afternoon slate in Week 12, I’ve been on a 14-5 ATS and 15-4 SU run with my picks. The Steelers failed me on Thursday, but it’s a miracle after falling behind 29-0 in the third quarter that they were a Pat Freiermuth catch in the end zone away from likely covering and possibly forcing overtime to go win it.

It was one of the best 29-point comeback efforts in NFL history, and as you can see in this thread below, those are rare. Only the 1992 Bills pulled it off for a win against the Oilers in the playoffs. This would have been the second-largest comeback ever and the largest in a regular-season game.

It was also a historic game in that the Vikings won despite Kirk Cousins finishing with a 63.4 passer rating. In his career, Cousins was 0-29 when his passer rating was under 85.0 (min. 20 attempts), the worst record in NFL history. But he finally got carried by the ground game and a late defensive stop to win a game where he did not play that well.

So, Cousins breaks his 0-29 streak in a game where the Vikings nearly blew a 29-0 lead that he would have received a lot of blame for. Crazy stuff.

As for the games this week, I feel like I leaned on a lot of dogs to cover as a hedge just because I don’t trust anyone this season. With Jonathan Taylor on a bye week, the lock of the week may be Taysom Hill hitting his over in rushing yards on the Jets. It’s around 52.5 yards right now, but the guy can’t really throw and it’s the Jets. That one feels very safe to me.

NFL Week 13 Predictions: The Reverse Jinx Is Back Edition

~ Scott ~ 1 Comment

Since the NFL moved Monday Night Football to ESPN, there aren’t many weeks where the Monday night game is hands down the most anticipated game of the week. But this is definitely one of those weeks when the showdown will take place between the Patriots and Bills in what is suddenly a game with huge implications for the AFC race.

After one year of irrelevancy, the Patriots just may be for real again with an early 2000s brand of football that I didn’t think I’d have to root against so soon. But it’s a big test for both teams and I previewed the game at BMR. Is the reverse jinx back where I always pick the Patriots to win? We’ll see.

My other BMR preview was for Broncos-Chiefs, which included this nugget about this weird season: In 35 games this season between teams who currently have a winning record going into Week 13, the underdog is a stunning 25-9-1 ATS (.729) and 22-13 SU (.629). 

I was getting worried that every game this week was a touchdown favorite that I felt like picking to cover because of how inept their opponents have been. Fortunately, things get more interesting further down the schedule. I’m still nervous as hell about when the Lions are going to steal a win to avoid 0-16-1, and a team with Kirk Cousins that nearly lost once to Detroit this year could be that unlucky foe. I’m also still frustrated that Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins are not back to health and ready to go for the team with the best record in the NFL. It looks like the game-time decision waiting game again. Elsewhere, I like the Dolphins to continue the most irrelevant five-game winning streak ever, taking advantage of Mike Glennon’s neck, and the Eagles should be able to run on the Jets. I’m still sour to bet anything on a Jets game after that Cincinnati choke has financially crippled me.

I think LAC-CIN and WAS-LV have great potential to be games decided by 1-8 points. If the Rams can’t bounce back in a big way against this terrible Jacksonville team, then I don’t think you can treat them as a serious contender anymore.

Upset pick: Seattle over San Francisco. To paraphrase Mike Holmgren watching a young Brett Favre play: he has to know he’s fucking up out there. This is how I feel the Seahawks are viewing Russell Wilson right now in the worst season of his career. But I’m going to bet on the bleeding to stop for one week against a San Francisco team that Wilson has usually beaten in his career (16-4 record), including his last win back in Week 4. Plus you probably know I think Kyle Shanahan is very overrated as a head coach. The 49ers have been doing creative, productive things with Deebo Samuel as a runner, but he’s out injured this week. That’s a big blow. I’m going to pick the Seahawks to show some pride at home and get this win.

Hedge/homer pick: Steelers cover, Ravens win to strengthen case as the worst 9-3 team ever. The AFC North is not very good this year despite every team being at least .500. The Ravens might be the worst 8-3 team I’ve ever seen. The Steelers just allowed 41 points in back-to-back games for the first time since 1989. These might be the worst defenses in the Mike Tomlin and John Harbaugh eras. At least the Ravens have a bit of an excuse with Matt Judon going to New England and Marcus Peters tearing his ACL. The Steelers have not had great health on defense this year, but they have still underperformed despite getting a lot of snaps out of their stars (Cameron Heyward, T.J. Watt, Minkah Fitzpatrick). The Steelers played horrifically against the Bengals in every phase last week, but most of their games have been close this season. The Ravens have played terrible offense with Lamar Jackson against Miami and Cleveland in his last two outings, and both of his career starts against Pittsburgh have been rough. Maybe the third time’s a charm on both fronts, but I don’t trust him to have a huge game in this one. I think it will be ugly and close like many Steelers-Ravens games of the past. But I will hedge and go with the Steelers to cover, Ravens to win.

NFL Week 12 Predictions: Sunday’s Best Edition

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The good news this week: I don’t have to rant and complain about injuries and the caliber of games on this week’s schedule. Week 12 might actually be the best schedule of games this season, and that’s with the Chiefs and the team with the best record in the league (Arizona) on a bye week.

My full previews at BMR: Browns-Ravens and Seahawks-WFT.

The Sunday slate looks like the best we’ll get the rest of the regular season thanks to LAR-GB, TEN-NE, MIN-SF, TB-IND, PIT-CIN, LAC-DEN, and CLE-BAL.

Have some of these games lost some luster from a month ago? Sure. The Rams and Packers have been slumping, the Titans are falling apart with injuries, and all of the AFC North teams have their share of flaws and bad performances.

But some of these games look a lot better than they did a month ago. I sure can’t wait for Jonathan Taylor to rush for 125 yards against a tough Tampa Bay run defense and still lose because Carson Wentz gets outplayed by the LOAT, which somehow means to the MSM that Brady is the MVP in this hellscape season. But maybe the Colts can surprise again like they did in Buffalo last week.

The 49ers-Vikings is also an interesting one with these teams on the rise as the sixth and seventh seeds in the NFC. The winner of this one could really get a push towards that sixth seed, but it wouldn’t be surprising if both still made the playoffs with the way the Saints, Falcons, Panthers, and Seahawks are floundering. Philadelphia is another team on the upswing in the conference with a head-to-head loss to the 49ers. So I would say it’s a slightly more important game for the Vikings than San Francisco.

But the big one is still Rams-Packers where the line has moved to Rams -2 despite the game being in Green Bay. Head coach Matt LaFleur has been at least a 3-point favorite in all 23 of his home games since 2019 where he is 16-7 ATS (.696) and 20-3 SU (.870).

Not that homefield is what it used to be, but no team has a better home record (SU or ATS) in the NFL since 2019 than LaFleur’s Packers. I have my issues with how good this team really is under him, but the fact is they still win a lot. Aaron Rodgers has the toe injury but he had it last week when he threw four touchdowns. The defense was a big letdown in Minnesota.

This is the kind of game the Rams brought Matthew Stafford in for. This is the kind of game he has to show he can win after going 8-68 against winning teams in his career coming into this season. He got the home win over Tampa Bay this year, which was great, but as it turns out the Cardinals with Kyler Murray might be the best team in the NFC this year. He lost that one big. He lost another big one in prime time to the Titans largely on the back of his two interceptions. He played better against the 49ers but it was another uneven performance and another bad one for the team in a big loss. We haven’t seen them since with the bye, so this is a huge road test.

Not to mention that whole 32-18 playoff game won by Green Bay in January where Jared Goff was not horrific. But the Rams’ so-called No. 1 defense was shredded by Rodgers and dominated on the ground as well. We’ll see if they put in a better effort this time.

I’m looking forward to this one. It’s a clash of Stafford’s horrific history against teams this good and Green Bay’s awful history in the Rodgers era against these quality NFC teams outside the division. I’m going with Green Bay as I just do not like what I’ve seen from the Rams lately. Was Green Bay’s offense off when Rodgers returned against Seattle? Yeah, but the defense still pitched a shutout. Was Green Bay’s defense legitimately terrible last week? Yeah, but they dropped some Kirk Cousins interceptions and the offense put up a fight in a game decided on a last-second field goal. That still beats getting blown out 28-16 and 31-10 like the Rams.

NFL Week 11 Predictions: We’re in Tim Boyle Territory Edition

~ Scott ~ 1 Comment

Another Friday night means another chance for me to rant and rave about the poor state of this NFL season where I freely admit I don’t know what I’m even predicting anymore with these games. Again, it’s become a season where Indy’s Jonathan Taylor scoring a touchdown is maybe the safest bet, and even that one could be trouble this week against Buffalo’s No. 1 scoring defense.

Oh, but I had the right side in the Thursday game as the Atlanta Falcons are pretty much never the right side against the Patriots.

My full previews this week at BMR include Ravens-Bears, Steelers-Chargers, and Giants-Buccaneers. I’m pretty sure all six rosters are just listed in their entirety on the injury report this week.

Apparently the regression to more close games in Week 11 will have to wait until Sunday after that 25-0 rout. Yet I still wouldn’t have won shit if I made a big bet on that game since I likely would have been in on a Damien Harris or Rhamondre Stevenson (or both) touchdown, and the game’s lone offensive touchdown went to Nelson Agholor. Seriously, if you told me the Patriots would win by 25 and score one offensive touchdown, I’m not sure I would have believed it. In a matter of days we saw Russell Wilson (against Packers) and Matt Ryan get shut out. Sad season.

DET-CLE: I’m supposed to trust the Browns with a spread this big when Baker Mayfield is getting closer to entering the stadium in a full body cast? Oh, but the Lions are starting Tim Boyle at QB with the worst receiving corps in the league. Another crappy game.

SF-JAX: So much for those Elijah Mitchell props. There’s been a “maybe Jacksonville’s defense isn’t so horrendous” push after what happened against the Bills and Colts, but are we going to forget the two games before that were giving over 300 yards to Tua and getting lit up by Geno Smith? Of course, Kyle Shanahan is the coach who got crushed at home by Arizona’s backups and then blew out the Rams on Monday.

IND-BUF: Pretty good challenge for both teams. Colts have to win this one if they’re going to have any belief they can still be a playoff team. But I think that pass defense is bad and Josh Allen will exploit it in a win. Plus, Carson Wentz against a top scoring defense and likely division winner? Yeah, I’ll take the Bills.

MIA-NYJ: The Three Stooges of Who Gives a Fuck? game. Yep, we totally need a 36-year-old Joe Flacco to start against a defense he lost 24-0 to a year ago. That’s exactly what the Jets need to put on tape instead of giving Mike White another start.

WAS-CAR: Ron Rivera already lost his revenge game against the Panthers last season, but I’m just going with my gut that Washington will play decent after last week’s big win and Cam Newton won’t be as effective as the full-time starter.

NO-PHI: I’m 2-7 ATS picking 2021 Saints games, so take it with a grain of salt or just pick them to win since nothing about either of these teams makes sense this season. I just know Jalen Hurts had that big upset win against the Saints last season and he played well last week against Denver. No Alvin Kamara again for the Saints.

HOU-TEN: Probably will regret this pick but the Titans had to scrape out two close wins over Houston a year ago. Close wins are a common thing for these Titans. Just banking on Tyrod Taylor playing more like the QB he was in the first two games this season and keeping this one close enough. If Trevor Siemian can lose by two to these Titans… If the Jets can beat these Titans with Zach Wilson…Division game fuckery at hand.

GB-MIN: Another gut feeling that Rodgers is due for a loss, which hasn’t happened to him since Week 1 if you exclude Pat McAfee show appearances. I didn’t like the lack of execution against Seattle last week and the Vikings can actually score. Just feels like a split situation with the Vikings taking this one as they did split last year with the Packers.

CIN-LV: Don’t trust either team but I’ll back Joe Burrow off a bye over Derek Carr here. This should be a 4QC opportunity game.

ARI-SEA: Oh great, another week where Kyler Murray is a game-time decision. As we saw last week, you can’t trust Colt McCoy to get the job done. But I’m just going to bank on Kyler finally playing again and Arizona’s defense making Seattle look bad to get the win. This isn’t the Russell Wilson we’re used to seeing.

DAL-KC: This could be an amazing shootout, an incredible comeback/collapse, or a rout with a boring second half. I hope it’s not the third option. Chiefs getting another COVID break with Amari Cooper out, but the Cowboys still have plenty of weapons. I’m going to stick with KC after that impressive performance last week, but nothing would shock me anymore. We just saw Dallas go from trailing 30-0 at home to Denver before beating the Falcons 43-3. You know, a Denver team that promptly lost 30-13 at home to the Eagles on Sunday.

I wish I could explain this season better, but I just can’t. The offseason was closer to normal than last year, there was a preseason, and the crowds are back, yet home teams are 74-76-1 SU (.493). Home-field advantage is dead.

Defense is better than it was a year ago, but not by that much if you’ve seen some of the embarrassing blown coverages each week. And yet, Matthew Stafford is still leading all QBs with a 67.0 QBR, which would have ranked him ninth in 2020 and 12th in 2009, his rookie year.

Underdogs are 59-90-1 SU (.397) through Week 10. That’s the second-highest win% for underdogs in the last 21 seasons. The underdogs are also covering 57% of the time, one of the best starts to any season in the last 21 years. Neither record is egregiously out of place with past seasons, but it has been a successful year for underdogs.

No such thing as a lock this season.

NFL Week 10 Predictions: Impending Disaster Edition

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You think you know what’s going to happen next this NFL season? That’s cute, even if it’s completely impractical. I’m just going to rant about several games this week as I have no real theme to this week’s predictions. Kind of like how the 2021 season has no real rhythm or purpose to it.

The Dolphins still suck, right? Baltimore apparently didn’t get the memo. The Ravens made the Miami defense look all-world while the Dolphins won a game after Tua came off the bench to replace an injured starter. Isn’t it supposed to be the other way around? Tua gets injured and the backup saves the day? That whole game was ass backwards, but the Ravens really put on one of the worst team performances I’ve seen all season. The AFC North is as wide open as I can ever recall.

My full previews for this week: Saints-Titans, Chiefs-Raiders, Rams-49ers.

Before you start thinking this might be Tennessee’s year in the AFC, don’t discount the possibility of Trevor Siemian throwing three touchdowns to Taysom Hill this Sunday or some other weird shit to get the Saints (without Alvin Kamara) over the hump. God knows that team has been the hardest to figure out this year. I was talking about the Saints, but the Titans are up there too with that sentiment. Lose to the Jets, pound the Chiefs and Rams. Okay. Be a bit nervous about that offense without Derrick Henry after it averaged under 3.5 yards per play last week. The defense won that game in LA.

Favorites of more than 7 points were 26-1 SU this season coming into this past Sunday. They are 1-4 since after the Bills (at Jaguars), Cowboys (vs. Broncos), Rams (vs. Titans), and Ravens (at Dolphins) all lost. Your gut might be saying go all in on the Bills and Cowboys (and maybe Rams) rebounding to win, and go all in on the Jags returning to their losing ways as a 10.5-point underdog to the Colts. I get it, but what if Buffalo shits the bed again and the Jets really do have some Brady-like dink-and-dunker who sold his soul to the devil in Mike White? I’m a bit worried about the Bills after struggling with Miami and Jacksonville. As for the Cowboys, a game with Atlanta where Dan Quinn might forget which side he is on worries me. No Tyron Smith against Atlanta? What is this, 2017 all over again? Amari Cooper basically said he and CeeDee Lamb couldn’t run last week, which I said in this very blog spot could be a concern against Denver. I’m not sure how playing a game and practice gets you healthier, but hopefully they will be because Matt Ryan is playing quite well again. And we know the only reason Atlanta lost to Dallas last year was that absurd onside kick recovery. I’m definitely taking Atlanta to cover, but just remember the golden rule of NFL gambling: never bet on the Falcons to win. Another golden rule is to bet against Carson Wentz against a good team, but the Jaguars are not good. I think the Jonathan Taylor TD/Colts ML parlay pick is still safe this week.

Then we’re dealing with mounting injuries and COVID situations.

Seahawks-Packers was a marquee game on the schedule in April, but it’s lost some luster with the way this season has unfolded so far. Is Aaron Rodgers going to be totally fine after missing a week for COVID or will he pull a 2020 Cam Newton and implode in his first game back? Is Russell Wilson really ready for this one after being ahead of schedule on his recovery? I think I’ll be avoiding it.

I’ve been avoiding New England games all season. The Browns are back to D’Ernest Johnson at RB after COVID has taken out the rest of the backfield. The Patriots are gaining confidence too. Mac Jones might even start attacking Myles Garrett with a lead pipe in the parking lot to gain an advantage.

Kyler Murray is a game-time decision again this week. Would be nice to have more clarity on that one. Apparently it’s going to be P.J. Walker for the Panthers. But if it’s against Colt McCoy, could Carolina cover? I kind of love that pick because Kyler is 0-2 against the Panthers and was under 4.3 YPA (!) in both games the last two years. Maybe the Panthers just have a good feel for that Kliff-coached offense and now Sam Darnold is out of the picture for the offense with Christian McCaffrey back. Seems too good to be true for a Carolina cover, but I’m on that one in a week where I struggled to find underdogs I like.

Speaking of underdogs, is this the Mike Tomlin Special at home against 0-8 Detroit? The Steelers haven’t beaten anyone by more than 8 points in nearly 51 weeks. Chase Claypool is out. Ben Roethlisberger is a bit beat up and the Steelers just had that dramatic win on Monday night against Chicago. The offensive line was poor in that game. Jared Goff with a weak supporting cast at receiver doesn’t give me much confidence, but this feels like that classic trap game for the Steelers who have a golden gift with Baltimore’s Miami loss to move into first place in the division. I don’t think I’d put big money on Detroit winning, but the cover (or Steelers by 1-13 points) is a favorite bet of mine this week.

The Eagles are another team I’ve been avoiding, but it’s amazing how many quarterbacks (5-of-9) they have allowed to complete over 80% of their passes this season. You would think Teddy Bridgewater could do it here, but what is the impact of offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur likely being out from calling plays due to COVID? Denver overachieved in Dallas last week. I’m not sure they stack wins here, but I am picking Denver this week.

If I had two locks this week, it would be Tampa Bay beating a terrible Washington defense and the Vikings-Chargers game being decided by single digits. That leaves me with this parlay that I will do my best to hedge from the impending disaster that Week 10 could be.

Or maybe we got the big upset of the week out of the way early…

NFL Week 9 Predictions: Aaron Rodgers Has Failed Us Edition

~ Scott ~ 1 Comment

I’m later than usual this season at getting this preview up on Saturday, but I was sleepy last night and wanted to wait for some more information on these Week 9 games. This is a difficult week with five of the games having a quarterback switch or injury situation to monitor, and a few other really good players are questionable or the dreaded game-time decision.

One player we know is out Sunday is Aaron Rodgers.

I cautiously asked last week “do we finally get Aaron Rodgers vs. Patrick Mahomes, and will it be memorable?“

Oh, it’s going to be a memorable week in Green Bay history, but it won’t be with Rodgers on the field. We’re going to see Jordan Love get his first start against Mahomes and the struggling Chiefs, which made the spread jump nearly seven points in KC’s favor as you’d expect.

Love got vaccinated while Rodgers lied and didn’t. Now Rodgers is out with COVID and he hit full anti-vaxxer BINGO multiple lines over with his appearance on Pat McAfee’s show. Everything from inappropriately quoting MLK to “I did my own research” to getting his medical advice from Joe Rogan to taking Ivermectin instead of the vaccine came up. Rodgers is just as loopy as your least favorite Facebook uncle.

Even with the extra hour of sleep coming to us all tonight, I don’t want to spend much time on this. Rodgers lied and he’s gone into big baby mode to complain about being caught in a lie and breaking COVID protocols with the Packers. He’s letting his teammates down, he’s put them at risk, and he’s hurting the team’s chances at getting the No. 1 seed. This was a very winnable game with Rodgers against a terrible defense, but now it’s a real toss-up with Love a real wild card.

Let’s just say weeks like this don’t make me feel bad about ranking Rodgers as the fifth-best QB of the 21st century.

Who knows if we’ll ever get a Mahomes-Rodgers game. This week certainly makes it easier for the Packers to part ways with him after the season. Maybe he ends up in Denver next year. All I know is his tired, debunked line of reasoning is why we’re still stuck in this pandemic that has reached nearly 50 million cases and 800,000 deaths in the United States alone.

NFL Week 9 Predictions

I stand by Jets +10.5 being a good pick on Thursday night. Mike White just had to get injured because the Jets are never allowed to have anything good happen to them.

My full previews this week include DEN-DAL, TEN-LAR, and CHI-PIT.

I love that stat that Mike Vrabel is 12-2 ATS and 11-3 SU as coach of the Titans as an underdog of 4+ points. But I’m feeling very nervous about that pick with Derrick Henry out, the new RBs just settling in, and A.J. Brown and Julio Jones are not 100%. But I’m going to stick with the Titans covering for now.

There are a lot of potential land mines here. Are the Texans actually going to be decent against a lousy Miami team now that Tyrod Taylor is back? I had to hedge that one. Are the Cowboys going to be fully lethal if CeeDee Lamb and Amari Cooper aren’t 100% and Tyron Smith is out at LT? Can we trust the Bengals after last week? Do I dare trust Trevor Siemian starting a game in 2021 for the Saints even if it is against Atlanta? How do the Raiders respond after another awful off-field incident with Henry Ruggs taking someone’s life? I already covered the KC-GB game, and the Cardinals were already a team I was doubting against San Francisco if you saw the way the defense held Kyler Murray down the last two meetings. Now that Murray and DeAndre Hopkins are game-time decisions and George Kittle is back for SF, I have to go with the 49ers in that one.

There’s not a lot I feel confident in here. But I do feel good about the Ravens coming off the bye and beating the Vikings, and I think the Chargers have a great opportunity to cover the spread against the Eagles, who I still have no faith in this year.

NFL Week 8 Predictions: AFC Gone Wild Edition

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After the Packers stunned Arizona on Thursday night, both teams still hold the best record in the NFL at 7-1 to start Week 8. In fact, the NFC has the top five records in the NFL this year with Tampa Bay, (6-1), Los Angeles Rams (6-1), and Dallas (5-1) all with one loss through Week 7.

This makes the 2021 NFC the first conference since the 1970 merger to hold the five best records in the league through Week 7. This is history. Once you get past those five teams, there’s not much going on in the NFC right now.

But in the AFC, there’s a staggering amount of competition now that the Chiefs have lost to almost every contender except the Browns while the Titans beat the Bills, who blew a 10-0 lead to the Steelers, but Tennessee also lost in overtime to the Jets, and while the Raiders beat the Ravens in overtime and lost badly to the Chargers, those Chargers lost 34-6 to the Ravens, who promptly lost big to the Bengals. Something something the Raiders and Bengals have also lost to the Bears, so everyone is flawed here.

Got it?

This start is also producing some history in the eight-division era. The 2021 AFC is the first conference since 2002 where the top six records through Week 7 are all teams with two losses: Bengals (5-2), Ravens (5-2), Titans (5-2), Bills (4-2), and Chargers (4-2).

This is only the third time where a conference did not have a team with zero or one losses through Week 7. The other times were the 2010 NFC (ultimately won by No. 1 seed Atlanta, then Green Bay in the playoffs) and the 2017 AFC (ultimately won by New England thanks to Jesse James and the stupid NFL catch rule). But even in those years, there were teams with three losses in the top six.

Competition is a great thing. While I still expect the NFC to meltdown and let Tampa Bay back to the Super Bowl, the AFC has a lot of options for a change this year.

NFL Week 8 Predictions

I backed a lot of dogs last week and it did not go so well. This week, I found it hard to pick any, even ATS.

I’m so done with the Eagles for now. Give me Dan Campbell over the Fertilizer Guy this week for Detroit’s first win.

I’m not sure why the spread has changed so much in Indy. I know Julio Jones is out, but he’s not worth 2 points himself. But I’m used to the Colts beating the Titans, so I’m predicting the split on the season here.

NE-LAC: Had to hedge with the spread here. The Chargers see Bill Belichick on the sideline and immediately shit their pants. If you think it was because of Tom Brady, then you must have missed last year when they had that special teams debacle and lost 45-0 to a New England team that threw for 126 net yards.

WAS-DEN: Gotta back Ted the Spread against a bad QB/terrible defense at Mile High. That’s him in his element. If not, then Drew Lock is going to get back on the field and Vic Fangio is getting fired soon. Denver has to win that one.

DAL-MIN: A potentially great shootout could go away if Dak Prescott can’t go. The spread has already swung from Dallas -2.5 to Minnesota -3 given the Dak news with his calf. That would be unfortunate, though Andy Dalton did get a win over the Vikings a year ago. Cooper Rush would be the QB this time for Dallas.

NYG-KC: See my preview here at BMR on MNF. The Chiefs still move the ball at an elite level, but so does the opposing offense on their defense that ranks 32nd in yards and points per drive. The Chiefs are also on pace to have the highest turnover rate of any offense since at least 1993.

NFL Week 7 Predictions: Trick or Treat Edition

~ Scott ~ 1 Comment

If you thought Week 6 was bad football, take a gander at Week 7. Chiefs-Titans could be a fun shootout (read my preview here), but the only other game that comes close on paper is Bengals-Ravens, and I’m still not sure if the Bengals are ready for a game like this.

I may have lost my mind, but I really did pick 11 underdogs against the spread this week (five to win). It’s a combination of things. It’s probably an overcorrection to a Week 6 that featured a lot of blowouts. It’s also a reaction to the couple large spreads. Since 2010, favorites of 14-plus points are 39-39 ATS. Flip a coin.

Plus I just don’t love certain things like the 49ers playing without George Kittle, the Bucs without Antonio Brown and Rob Gronkowski, and that spread in Green Bay keeps coming down that I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s -6.5 by kickoff.

I do love the revenge games for Matthew Stafford (Lions) and DeAndre Hopkins/J.J. Watt (Texans), but I feel uneasy about picking the Cardinals to cruise to 7-0 (can see Houston losing 34-17), and that Stafford game is interesting after Dan Campbell challenged Jared Goff publicly to do better this week. What better week than Rams week against Sean McVay and Stafford? Crazier things have happened, like when the Jets beat the Rams as a 17.5-point underdog last December. The Lions have given several teams a tough time this year, though that awful loss to the Bengals last week gives me pause. But I do at least love the props in this one for Stafford and for Cooper Kupp and Darrell Henderson to find the end zone. Maybe even Robert Woods and a bomb to DeSean Jackson. The full arsenal.

But one thing I wanted to look at for this week was how much should we trust those biggest favorites of the week to win? I’m talking about Arizona, Rams, and Bucs. They’re all favorites of 11 or more points, and if they come through (along with Derrick Henry), I can hit the parlay with the longest odds I’ve ever hit thanks to actually getting a correct score on TNF right (I took three stabs at it).

Since 2001, favorites of 11-plus points are 350-53-1 SU (.868) and 188-213-3 ATS.

But how safe are they to bet to win when there’s three in one week? It happened this year in Week 2 and all the favorites won. I looked at this data for 2001-present and found 46 weeks where at least three teams were favored by 11+ points. Here are their results:

  • Perfect record: 32/46 (69.6% of the time)
  • One tie: once (Week 10, 2012, thanks Jeff Fisher’s Rams vs. 49ers)
  • One loss: 11 times (4-1 once, 3-1 five times, 2-1 five times)
  • 1-2 record: twice (just happened Week 15 last year when Rams -17.5 lost to Jets and Steelers -14.5 lost to Bengals)

Ah yes, I remember Week 15 well. It’s a week where I needed the Rams and Steelers to come through as huge favorites and I would have won about $36,000. So, that’s not the week I like to think about when I’m expecting a huge Sunday (fading MNF for sure this time).

Hedge wisely just in case. And for those curious, the big favorites were perfect ATS just twice in 46 tries. Four times they were 1-3 ATS and four times they were 0-3 ATS.

NFL Week 6 Predictions: Everybody Hurts Edition

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

I’m prepared to be hurt this weekend. Not hurt in the way Russell Wilson, Nick Chubb, DeVante Parker, Saquon Barkley, and a long list of others are going into Week 6. If a game this week doesn’t have a big name out with injury, then you can bet it has someone questionable with a real 50/50 shot to not suit up.

When you put those injury questions into consideration as well as a slate that isn’t too hot to begin with…

When you acknowledge that Week 5 was finally one filled with a season-high 11 close games in the fourth quarter…

When you see that Week 5 was a good one for favorites and good for me personally (I was 13-3 SU and 9-6-1 ATS)…

When you remember how many TD scorers and other things I nailed in Week 5…

When you already suffer a gut punch on Thursday night with the way Philadelphia covered that 6.5 (or 7) point spread and Tom Brady’s rushing prop settled…

You just know it’s going to be a weird week with more blowouts, upsets, and general randomness. So, I’m going to bet conservatively and not lose my whole ass on a Sunday that just isn’t worth going all in for. There will be better weeks to come.

Dolphins at Jaguars: My apologies to Jets-Falcons since the NFL did find an even worse game to send to London. But yeah, I’m going to roll with the Jaguars ending their 20-game losing streak. I like James Robinson to find the end zone again too. Of course, I’m probably going to wake up and find the Jaguars down 20 points and read that Urban Meyer left at halftime to find the nearest pub or the first blonde that catches his eye.

Texans at Colts: How do the Colts respond after their epic blown lead in Baltimore on Monday night? My gut was to go big on Indy anyways, but then you remember that the Texans actually had a big offensive showing against the Patriots last week. Then there’s the fact that all 14 meetings since 2014 between these teams haven been decided by fewer than 10 points. Hell, all but one of them was decided by fewer than eight points. Even when the Colts played their best game this season in Miami, they won by 10 points. I’m going to hedge my pick with taking Houston to cover.

Packers at Bears: See my preview here. Just Year 30 of the Packers being much better off at QB than Chicago.

Chiefs at Washington: The Chiefs are due for an easy win, aren’t they? Maybe nothing is easy with this historically-bad defense (still minus Chris Jones too), and it doesn’t help that Tyreek Hill has a quad injury. My gut is to play Hill for a TD and a big game from Travis Kelce too. That Washington defense is the closest thing in the NFC to being as bad as the Chiefs. In his career, Patrick Mahomes is 17-2 SU and 9-10 ATS against defenses that finish in the bottom 12 in points per drive allowed. Washington is currently 30th thru Week 5.

Vikings at Panthers: I was burned badly by the Panthers a week ago. I think the Vikings are the better team but this should be one decided by single digits either way.

Chargers at Ravens: It’s the Game of the Week. We have been getting wild, high-scoring games between the top AFC teams this year, and this one should be no different. Justin Herbert and Lamar Jackson are MVP candidates and they have led their teams to a league-high three fourth-quarter comeback wins already. Neither defense has been very good, but I still think the Ravens are doing better on that side of the ball, and their run game against the Chargers’ bottom-ranked run defense (32nd in yards and YPC) should get back to starting another streak of 100+ yards on the ground. Mike Williams being questionable is also worrisome. Sammy Watkins out is just par for the course for him. I’ll take the Ravens at home and am definitely looking forward to it.

Bengals at Lions: Hedging on the spread here. I don’t think we can trust the Bengals on the road just yet to win games like this. Detroit keeps getting closer to pulling one out for Dan Campbell. If the Bengals win, I can see it being by 3 points.

Rams at Giants: The Rams are clearly the better team and I like to fade a quarterback coming off a concussion like Daniel Jones in this case. They played a 17-9 game a season ago.

Cardinals at Browns: The No. 2 Game of the Week, but it’s losing some luster with Nick Chubb (calf) already ruled out as well as several members of the Arizona coaching staff, including head coach Kliff Kingsbury. This has me worried for the undefeated Cardinals, who may not be out of the woods with COVID before this one kicks off on Sunday. I’m going to trust the Browns as I think Kareem Hunt will be great in Chubb’s absence and I can see that defensive line frustrating Kyler Murray.

Raiders at Broncos: Of course I’m backing Ted the Spread against a team going through turmoil now. Broncos end their losing skid.

Cowboys at Patriots: I’ve watched the Cowboys go 0-5 against New England in 2003, 2007, 2011, 2015, and 2019. But this is the first time the Cowboys clearly have the better team and are playing better football. I’ll take Dallas.

Seahawks at Steelers: Read my preview here. I love “Steelers by 1-13” for this game, though it will be interesting to see the Seahawks without Russell Wilson for the first time since 2011.

Bills at Titans: Read my preview here. The Bills are on a historic roll right now. Four straight wins by 18+ points and four straight games scoring 35+ are proof of that. I like the revenge tour to continue here and hopefully the game won’t get moved to Tuesday like last year…

But I’m ready to be hurt.

NFL Week 5 Predictions: Injured Quarterbacks Edition

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

The NFL nailed Sunday Night Football in Week 5 with the Buffalo Bills looking to get their biggest win in the regular season in decades in Kansas City and drop the Chiefs to 2-3 in the process. If you look at the remaining schedules for both teams, it would seem highly improbable (but not impossible) for the Chiefs to catch Buffalo in the AFC standings if they lose this game.

Rather than churn out a game preview here for this one, I was fortunate to already take care of this game in 2,000 words of detail at BMR, so click here to read that. I have also done previews for Eagles-Panthers and Colts-Ravens.

Before getting to the picks, I wanted to take a moment to update some quarterback injury stats after a newsworthy Friday involving finger surgery for Russell Wilson.

Active Starting Quarterbacks: Career Injury History

Another one bites the dust. The dreaded Russell Wilson injury I feel like I’ve been warning about the last six seasons happened, and it happened in a way you’d least expect: in the pocket with an on-time throw. There was no scrambling. It was not a leg injury. It was his finger that contacted Aaron Donald on his follow through, and it’s frankly a miracle this doesn’t happen to a quarterback every season given the hundreds of opportunities. For Wilson, he threw almost 5,000 passes in his career before this unfortunate setback that will cost him at least a month and likely put his 10th season in spoiled territory with the Seahawks at 2-3 in a tough division.

So ends the fifth-longest starting streak in NFL history at quarterback. We are also down to just Kirk Cousins, Baker Mayfield, Kyler Murray, and Justin Herbert as the non-rookie starters who have never missed a start to injury in the NFL. Baker is currently ailing with a torn labrum he suffered in Week 2, so his days on that small list could be numbered.

I’ve included three tables that highlight the injury history for today’s landscape of starters, including a few players who have been sent to the bench already this year in Drew Lock and Andy Dalton. But I had the data, so why not keep them there? The first table shows the quarterbacks who have had had 3+ injuries and missed the most games. The second table also has some multi-injured quarterbacks, and the last table has everyone with no injuries or a single injury situation.

NFL Week 5 Predictions

I had the Rams winning 29-23 in Seattle, so 26-17 did the trick for me on the spread, total and MOV (Rams by 1-13). Now if only Robert Woods or Cooper Kupp could have scored a touchdown, then it would have been a banner f’n night at the old Kacsmar residence.

Unless I can’t sleep like last Sunday, I won’t be setting an alarm for Jets-Falcons so I can watch Kyle Pitts not score a touchdown on a second continent. However, I will have a bet on him doing it anyway somewhere.

I don’t trust anything with the Saints and will be fading that game entirely. Ditto for Patriots-Texans. Crazy to think of an NFL where the Patriots and Saints scare you to bet on their games, but this is where I’m at right now with those teams. What really are those offenses at this point? Jakobi Meyers doesn’t catch touchdowns, Mac Jones doesn’t throw downfield, and the Saints would rather give Taysom Hill his touches than feed Alvin Kamara targets (anywhere) or carries in the red zone.

The worst common bet in the NFL is the 10-point spread. From 2001-2020, 10-point favorites covered only 43.9% of the time compared to 48.0% for 3-point favorites, 48.5% for 7-point favorites, and 54.5% for 9.5-point favorites. The only point spread with a lower cover rate (min. 100 games) in that time is 9-point favorites at 43.6%. It makes sense, mathematically. To cover a 10-point spread, you basically have to win by 14+ as teams rarely win with a differential of 11-13 points. If you’re in that range late in the game, you should be going for two to try to get it up to 14 to protect yourself from a collapse. Anyways, this is the long way to say that I don’t trust Kirk Cousins behind his offensive line to win by more than 10 this week. I know they’ve done it three years in a row at home against the Lions when they had Stafford, I know Cousins is 6-0 vs. Detroit with the Vikings and five of the wins were by 12+ points. But I’m just going with my gut here.

I have the Bears upsetting the Raiders as perhaps the Football Gods reward Matt Nagy for sticking with Justin Fields and punish the Raiders for Jon Gruden’s e-mails. Imagine the tweets starting around 7:30 P.M. EST on Sunday if that one comes true…

With Trey Lance starting for Jimmy Garoppolo, I’m going to give the 49ers a shot to cover and keep it close as Lance is such a wild card. He could be incredible or he could be terrible like the other rookies have mostly been this year. But I’m also used to seeing the 49ers lose close games under Kyle Shanahan, so I can live with this hedge. The Cardinals have been playing incredible but they aren’t going to score 31+ every week.

My detailed Steelers prediction: Now that Ben Roethlisberger has his 400th touchdown pass and moved past Dan Marino in yards, he’s hit the career milestones he was going to hit this year. I think he gives it one last go in front of the home crowd, and if they lose this one too to fall to 1-4, the Steelers will play up his injury and that will end his season and ultimately his career. So maybe the nostalgia in me is willing to give him one last home win, but I’m not really sure what to expect from Denver with Teddy Bridgewater coming off a concussion and Courtland Sutton getting injured in practice. It could be a 17-16 type of game where the Steelers can pull it out late. But these days, watching Roethlisberger is like watching your beloved pet struggle to walk in old age and you just know that day is coming where you have to take them to the vet and have them put down. It’s sad and it’s inevitable.

Finally, for Bills-Chiefs, part of me knows I should be taking the Bills to get over this KC hump with the way the Chiefs have turned the ball over and played terrible on defense. Home-field advantage just isn’t what it used to be either in this league. But I’m still rolling with the Chiefs (and will obviously have Buffalo bets too) because the offense is scoring at a historical rate and the Bills are a team they owned twice last year. I’m not sold on Buffalo’s defense, which was mediocre last year, being this great based on the competition so far. But we’ll see in what could be the game of the year in the AFC.

Final: Chiefs 31, Bills 27