Category: NFL Game Predictions

NFL 2025 Week 12 Predictions: As the AFC Turns Edition

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We’re only one game into NFL Week 12 and it’s already a big result as the Houston Texans (6-5) proved they have the best defense this season, and they’re finally above .500 for the first time this season and back in the playoff hunt.

Meanwhile, I warned Buffalo fans all offseason that they would have to deal with turnover regression while not doing a ton to really improve the roster of a team that feasted on fumble recoveries, a schedule that saw them go 2-3 against winning teams, superior field position, and a historically low number of negative plays on offense that never felt sustainable with a quarterback known for his gunslinger ways.

Did I still ultimately buy into the Buffalo hype and predict them to finish as the No.1 seed? Yes. But I never had them going to the Super Bowl this year, and after Thursday night’s loss, it sure looks like they’ll have a hard time winning three straight road games to get there as the Patriots (9-2) are the team that’s taking advantage of an even easier schedule (3 games vs. 4th-place teams compared to first-place schedule) and should win the division.

But nothing is decided yet as we continue to see this weird AFC season where the Patriots, Colts, and Broncos have the best records, and it’s not looking good for the Ravens, Chiefs, and Bills to win those divisions and maybe not even make the playoffs in 2025.

We get a huge game in Kansas City this weekend with the Colts (8-2) coming off a bye week. I did a little preview in the NFL picks piece below for that one, but it’s such an intriguing matchup as the Colts have a lot of things in their favor:

  • Colts use a lot of play-action passing, which the Chiefs have been horrible against on defense.
  • Colts have Jonathan Taylor in peak mode, and the Chiefs have allowed James Cook to rush for over 100 this year.
  • Defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo has been one of the best at making things difficult for Mahomes and the offense.
  • Ability to play man coverage vs. KC wideouts with Sauce Gardner and Charvarius Ward (back healthy).
  • Colts had a bye week to prepare for the Chiefs, who have been labeled as predictable in recent losses to Bills and Broncos.

Alas, the Colts have been giving up sacks lately, and the Chiefs need to dial up blitzes and rely on the crowd noise to bother Daniel Jones, who was listed with a calf injury this week. Does his mobility get compromised and that leads to some sacks and takeaways for a KC defense that plays much better at home? We’ll see. Offense also needs to run the ball more when given so many light boxes, and they have ran it well in the last two meetings with Anarumo’s Bengals defenses.

It’s a huge game as a win can legitimize the Colts even more in the AFC. It could also spark the Chiefs to go on a run all the way through the postseason too. A lot on the line.

I wish that game was on at 4:25 PM as I’ll be stuck watching Bears vs. Steelers, which has a one-score game written all over it even if Aaron Rodgers doesn’t play. I’m thinking he will though since it is his last crack at the Bears and the injury isn’t to his throwing hand. But that’s a tough game with the leading defenses in turnovers, and that’s another pivotal one as the Steelers winning as a road underdog would be another blow to Baltimore’s hopes of storming back from 1-5 to win the AFC North.

This Week’s Articles

2025 NFL Quarterback Rankings Week 12: The Chiefs Are Failing Patrick Mahomes in a Down Year for Quarterback Play
Scott’s Seven NFL Picks: Week 12

In the QB rankings this week, I talk about how the Chiefs are failing Patrick Mahomes by going in the opposite direction of QB dependence in a league that is increasingly about making it easier on the QB. Also talked about the sobering losses for the Seahawks and Lions as you just can’t trust Sam Darnold and Jared Goff in big games.

For the picks, I got a Colts-Chiefs parlay, and I say go nuts and bet on the sack props in Raiders vs. Browns.

NFL Week 12 Predictions

Yeah, I thought the Bills could win by a TD, but at least I was right about the under.

NE-CIN: It sounds like Joe Flacco is going to start again instead of Joe Burrow. Not sure I’d change my pick there because I think without Ja’Marr Chase, it’ll be hard to keep up with the Patriots when Cincy has the worst defense in the NFL.

PIT-CHI: Like I said, I think it’s a very close game, and the Bears have been pulling those off this year better than Pittsburgh. Just feels like a Tomlin letdown spot on the road.

NYJ-BAL: Unless I read a parody account, it sounds like Justin Fields has been benched for Tyrod Taylor. Good news. Ravens should still win but I like a backdoor cover for the Jets.

SEA-TEN: I just can’t see the Titans topping 14 points here unless Darnold keeps throwing picks to give them short fields. Seattle should bounce back here.

NYG-DET: No Jaxson Dart. I think the over is a good pick as the Lions should pile up points on a horrible defense in the dome. Less confident in the spread as Jameis could be good for the backdoor.

MIN-GB: Packers haven’t covered these big spreads all year, but from what I’ve seen of J.J. McCarthy, he isn’t going to play well on the road in Lambeau. Give me GB to finally cover one.

IND-KC: Ah, I hedged with the classic Chiefs win but don’t cover. Colts really could win it outright, but I’ll give the Chiefs one more bone at home in a virtual must-win situation. But the Colts have been a thorn in their side for 30 years.

CLE-LV: I’ll take Maxx Crosby and the Raiders to win the sack fest.

JAX-ARI: No real vibe on this one. Think Brissett moves the ball better than Lawrence and the Cardinals find a way at home.

ATL-NO: Another one I don’t have any strong lean for. Falcons are due a win. Turn the offense over to the run game and sack the inexperienced QB in his 3rd start.

PHI-DAL: I like the Philly offense to get on track against that defense and for the Philly defense to slow down Dak and those receivers.

TB-LAR: McVay usually has a good feel for what Bowles is doing. Still not enough weapons for the Bucs. I’ll take the Rams at home by 7.

CAR-SF: Biggest game for the Panthers in years. I think they can keep it close but I like a low-scoring game here.

NFL 2025 Week 11 Predictions: Best Sunday Edition

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Every few years you get one NFL Sunday schedule that clearly stands out as the best of the regular season. I may not have circled Week 11 back in May when the schedule came out, but it has played out that way with the Seahawks and Rams looking like the best teams in the NFC (maybe NFL) right now as they meet for the first time. And if they’re actually frauds, then the Lions and Eagles are going at it Sunday night as the other two best teams in the NFC.

We also get an important Bills vs. Bucs game as those teams try to stay within reach of a division title after some struggles and a loss last week. The Steelers vs. Bengals rematch is bigger than usual as the Steelers need all the wins they can get to hold off Baltimore, which is heavily favored to win the AFC North again.

Then we have a game in Denver that is quite arguably the biggest regular-season game for the Broncos in 10 years, and the biggest of Patrick Mahomes’ career (again, regular season only) if we’re talking about the Chiefs staying on top of the AFC West. They can’t drop to 5-5 while the Broncos get to 9-2.

It’s big, it will shake up the Super Bowl odds, and while some of these games will no doubt turn into duds, at least one should be great and a contender for game of the year.

And no, I won’t be getting up early for Dolphins-Commanders in Spain. Hard to believe Dan Quinn’s job may be in bigger trouble than Mike McDaniel’s, but as always, it’s a good reminder that success is fleeting in the NFL for most.

This Week’s Articles

2025 NFL Quarterback Rankings Week 11: Preparing for the Epic Sam Darnold vs. Matthew Stafford Showdown
Scott’s Seven NFL Picks: Week 11

I previewed the Rams vs. Seahawks game by pointing out the double standard for Matthew Stafford getting MVP love for a season that the likes of Daniel Jones, Sam Darnold, Jared Goff, Brock Purdy, etc. would never get MVP credit for if they were in the same situation. I also had picks for parlays for Lions-Eagles, Rams-Seahawks, and a more detailed pick for Chiefs vs. Broncos.

NFL Week 11 Predictions

I had the Patriots winning 24-10 on Thursday night over the Jets, so 24-10, 27-14, close enough.

WAS-MIA: I think the Dolphins pull it out against a bad defense and Mariota.

CHI-MIN: Vikings came back in Week 1 to get them but I think Ben Johnson’s team is playing better now and they force McCarthy into enough mistakes to pull out the road upset win.

GB-NYG: New QB (Jameis) and an interim coach situation for a team that is 0-5 ATS when the spread is this big this season. Tricky game to bet but I like the idea of a Jameis pick and GB win.

CAR-ATL: It was 30-0 last time, so who the hell knows with these teams? Atlanta needs a win badly.

LAC-JAX: I am supporting Harbaugh to take it to a flawed Jacksonville team.

CIN-PIT: Steelers usually struggle at home with the Bengals but I think Rodgers makes up for last week with a great game and they get the home win. Flacco won’t be as good as Week 7.

TB-BUF: Too many weapons out for the Bucs again and I think the Bills lean on Josh Allen, turnovers be damned, and get a 7+ point win.

TEN-HOU: It was 26-0 last time but something tells me not to go all in on Davis Mills covering a 5.5-point spread against a team coming off a bye. But the Texans should win against the worst team in the NFL.

SEA-LAR: It’s a hedge for me. I think the Rams win by 1-3 points on a Stafford GWD. But I also think Seattle has a fair shot to win outright. I just weigh Darnold getting crushed by that pass rush last year a lot right now. Need to see this matchup on a new team.

SF-ARI: Purdy is back, I think. Could be a good one but I’m going 49ers.

KC-DEN: If Josh Simmons and Jawaan Taylor were out, I’d say go Denver ML cause of that pass rush against backup tackles. But it sounds like Mahomes will have his tackles coming off a bye and the Chiefs desperately need to win this one. They also need to step up and make Bo Nix look bad as many defenses have done this year. They didn’t do it last year, and he feasted on backups in Week 18 but also should have won the game in Arrowhead if not for the blocked FG. Steve Spagnuolo, do your job in this one. Make it hard on him.

BAL-CLE: Ravens feasted on short fields in the last meeting but the Browns just can’t keep up with this offense.

DET-PHI: Sam LaPorta is a big loss but I still believe the Lions have the weapons and balance to score on Philly and will hold up against the offense for a big road win.

DAL-LV: Play hard, play together, and win one for Marshawn Kneeland. Simple as that for Dallas.

NFL 2025 Week 10 Predictions: Not the NFC Game of the Year Edition

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Well, let’s hope Raiders vs. Broncos is the low point of Week 10. It was a historically bad game, and it’s even funnier when you consider the Broncos have the best record (8-2) in the NFL right now. The first team to 8 wins. Just goes to show what this season has been like so far. They’re giving me 2013 Chiefs vibes, but we’ll see if the 2025 Chiefs can play the part of the 2013 Broncos and take their division back.

Anyways, November is home to many of the biggest games this regular season. It’s just that the ones we circled in May when the schedule came out don’t appear to be the biggest ones after all. It really wasn’t true last week for Chiefs vs. Bills, and it’s probably not true in the NFC this week for Packers vs. Eagles. Not after Green Bay lost to Carolina last week and lost Tucker Kraft (ACL) in the process.

Still a big game on Monday night, but with the way the NFC West is shaping up, maybe one of those upcoming Seahawks vs. Rams games is actually the big one to watch. Or maybe it was Eagles vs. Rams, the 19-point comeback, that will decide the No. 1 seed after all. We’ll see.

This Week’s Articles

2025 NFL Quarterback Rankings Week 10: Lamar Jackson Makes Triumphant Return as Indiana Jones Turns into a Pumpkin
Scott’s Seven NFL Picks: Week 10

NFL Week 10 Predictions

I see a good spread record and my natural reaction these days is to go the other way as those guys are supposed to be so good that the record should regress to 50/50. That’s why I ignored that division underdogs were 4-0 ATS on TNF this year as an underdog of 7+ points. But the Raiders covered in one of the ugliest games I’ve ever watched. I had Denver winning by 11. Oh well.

ATL-IND: Not sure how fast Sauce Gardner can get ready for an overseas game with his new team, but slowing down Drake London is exactly what you need to do to beat Atlanta and why you get a player like that if you’re Indy. Again, when Bo Nix and the Broncos are 8-2, I see why Indy is doing what they’re doing. This is probably their best shot in the AFC for the next few years. I think they get right on offense, Jonathan Taylor has a big game, and they win by a touchdown.

JAX-HOU: I think Jags catch a break with Stroud (Concussion) out and win that one.

NYG-CHI: My favorite pick is the over here, or more specifically for both to score 20+. But I think Bears can win a 31-20 type of game.

BAL-MIN: I trust the Baltimore defense again and expect Lamar to play well. Don’t trust McCarthy yet.

CLE-NYJ: Should be an ugly game but if it’s low scoring, Justin Fields always has a chance. Just feels like the typical NFL spot for a team to trade away 2 of its best players and still win, signaling the start of the Shedeur Sanders era next week.

NO-CAR: Since when is Carolina a favorite of 5.5? Well, the Saints aren’t good but I think division games are closer and the Panthers win another tight one.

BUF-MIA: Dolphins had their shot in Buffalo on prime time. This is the 1 PM blowout that gets few eyeballs on it.

NE-TB: Could be a good one but I’m trusting Baker at home. Get Cade Otton (or any TE) a TD.

ARI-SEA: Good chance for Arizona to cover with Jacoby playing well but I think Seattle is peaking right now. Love the Shaheed trade.

SF-LAR: Gotta hedge on McVay vs. Shanahan. The 49ers own him except for one fateful 4th quarter in the 2021 NFC-CG.

DET-WAS: Well known this week that Dan Campbell is 12-0 ATS after his last 12 losses. I like it for 13-0 since the Washington offense is tanking and the defense is bad.

PIT-LAC: Another tough opponent for the Steelers. But I think we see some Chargering and the Joe Alt injury combined with moving Ramsey to safety has me liking the Steelers again.

PHI-GB: Another game impacted by injury. The Packers are beat up at WR and just lost their TE threat. Eagles should be fairly healthy after the bye week and swept this team last year. Think they get past them again after rediscovering Saquon in their last game.

NFL 2025 Week 9 Predictions: Have a Day, AFC Edition

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I thought about calling this one “Maye Day Edition” to go over the latest bullshit on Twitter with Patriots fans about my Drake Maye tweet. But then I thought why waste more of my weekend giving them attention when these are people who can’t even understand simple math concepts like how 26 isn’t more than 26, or what’s a comeback as opposed to a game-winning drive. Just some of the dumbest shit I’ve ever seen.

We’ll save that for another day, but yeah, I think a parlay of Maye over 29.5 attempts (that’s his real line) and NE ML is a solid bet. Well, the 2025 Falcons being the most random fuck-ass team in the league this year doesn’t help, but I’ll have to give that a play somewhere this weekend especially since it actually makes some sense given how Atlanta plays this year.

But we have big AFC games in Colts-Steelers and Bills-Chiefs. I’ve given a lot of my thoughts on those games in the NFL picks link below, but I really do think we could see the Chiefs win this game and never have to face Buffalo until next season at the earliest. Not looking like a year they’ll meet in the playoffs but still plenty of time to go.

I also think the Steelers pull it off somehow as I actually started to see stories this week about Tomlin’s job security. Perfect way to end that drama with a big win over the team with the best record in the NFL. I know on paper it doesn’t make a ton of sense, but the Colts have to have a crash back to Earth type of game on offense eventually don’t they? Even if it means great fumble luck for the Steelers. Blitz Jones relentlessly and hope for the best. Let Rodgers rip it all day on the other side. Steelers by 1-6.

This Week’s Articles

2025 NFL Quarterback Rankings Week 9: Jordan Love Steals the Shine from Aaron Rodgers’ Night in Pittsburgh
2025 NFL Award Races: Why Patrick Mahomes vs. Josh Allen Is Not the Game to Decide MVP, and the Daniel Jones Double Standard
Scott’s Seven NFL Picks: Week 9

I actually forgot about the award races article. I wrote about each one with updated odds and picks, and I obviously spent most of the time on the MVP case, the double standard for RB vs. QB when the QB is someone like Daniel Jones, and why Chiefs vs. Bills shouldn’t be the game to decide it.

NFL Week 9 Predictions

The main thing this week is to see if we’ll get any bounce back of closer games after last week’s historic amount of blowouts. Thursday got off to a bad start with the Ravens already crushing the Dolphins 28-7. I was actually 10-3 ATS last week but I’m afraid regression will probably come for me this week before it does the close games after two weeks of blowouts.

Is my vision going or does that table look closer to gray than white with the exception of the ATL-NE line? Weird.

I hate weeks when I pick so many favorites, but that’s just how it crumbles sometimes, and injuries have a lot to do with why I’m picking these favorites. Sure, I see some upset potential but didn’t go through with it for most.

ATL-NE: At this point, who knows what the hell Atlanta will do in any given week. They can lose 30-0 or they can win 28-3. Probably not the latter against this opponent but it’s not a game I’d invest in.

DEN-HOU: Could certainly go either way and the Broncos are better in close games than the Texans. But I see Nico Collins and I don’t see Patrick Surtain II on the other side, and that’s advantage Houston for me. Throw in the best defense Nix has seen on the road all year and I’m rolling with Houston.

LAC-TEN: Could the Chargers screw this up after losing to Jaxson Dart already? Yeah, always. But I think with Joe Alt back, you’ll see a more confident Justin Herbert shine against the worst team in the NFL right now. Chargers by double digits even if just barely.

CHI-CIN: Certainly a winnable game but I don’t like Joe Flacco’s injury news. Might hamper some throws and I think the Bears can win this one late.

SF-NYG: I’ll trust Mac Jones on the road if only because the Giants keep losing their best skill players. The total still looks high to me but I see some predicting CMC for a huge day. We’ll see.

MIN-DET: Another look at J.J. McCarthy. I like Justin Jefferson to score a TD here but will back the Lions to score too much for the youngster to keep up.

NO-LAR: Sean McVay has blown some huge spreads in the past. Remember the Adam Gase game? Tyler Shough could be a disaster against that pass rush, but it’s such a huge spread and I think Kellen Moore has done a respectable job of keeping it close. Maybe a backdoor cover situation here.

JAX-LV: Travis Hunter out just when he was finding his way as a WR. That sucks. Jakobi Meyers back for the Raiders. I think they get the home upset if you can call it one.

KC-BUF: Might throw a SGP on Twitter later tonight but I think the Chiefs win their first close game (0-3) of the season, which doesn’t mean they have to win by 1-8 points. It could be a game where the Bills have a comeback opportunity, fail, then the Chiefs score again to win by 10-14 or whatever. Remember, the Bills have trailed by double digits in the 4th quarter to the best teams they’ve seen this year (Ravens, Pats, Falcons).

SEA-WAS: I think JSN kills the secondary and McLaurin is out for Washington. Tough break for my guy Jayden Daniels.

ARI-DAL: The Jacoby Brissett news is very encouraging if you ask me. Makes the game more watchable as I think he throws for 300+ yards, scores 27+ points, and the Cowboys still win by one score because he’s one of the worst 4QC/GWD QBs in NFL history. But it should be entertaining.

NFL 2025 Week 8 Predictions: The Mike Tomlin Special Edition

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It’s a big bye week in Week 8 in the NFL with six teams off, and 8-of-13 games are AFC vs. NFC. We’ve already seen the Chargers turn in three hours of Carson Wentz torture porn on Thursday night, and it’s a surprise that game didn’t have a bigger spread given how banged up the Vikings were at QB and OT.

But you have eight games this week with a spread of 6.5 or bigger, so that could mean some big upsets are brewing. Frankly, nothing would surprise me with the way this season has gone.

However, I’ll be surprised if the Steelers don’t put in a good effort against Green Bay on Sunday night. Sure, there’s the Aaron Rodgers vs. Green Bay angle, but it’s also just what Mike Tomlin does. He’ll lose to the Bengals when he’s supposed to win, people cast doubt, then he comes back and beats the NFC team with the best record as an underdog and people jump back on board. Seen it for years.

I think there are schematic reasons for the Steelers to win too, including Rodgers getting the ball out fast to negate Micah Parsons, the Packers haven’t played well on the road, and you never know when Jordan Love will give you an ugly turnover.

This Week’s Articles

2025 NFL Quarterback Rankings Week 8: Patrick Mahomes Breaks PFF’s Grading System and Daniel Jones Joins Elite Company
Scott’s Seven NFL Picks: Week 8

I tackled the PFF grading joke this week in the QB rankings for Geno Smith vs. Patrick Mahomes. My Week 8 picks explain this week’s picks for PIT, KC, a Colts parlay, and a 5-leg touchdown scorer parlay. Also got a 3-leg teaser on lines I like for the Bills, Ravens, and Bengals.

NFL Week 8 Predictions

Props were a mess on TNF, but I had the Chargers all the way.

BUF-CAR: I really want to pick the Panthers to at least cover, but I just know the moment I do, Sean McDermott’s defense gets 3+ takeaways, Allen waxes that defense, Andy Dalton shits the bed, and the Bills win 30-13. But it is an upset alert game if Dalton can protect the ball, convert 3rd downs, the running backs go to work, and they’ll probably need a fumble recovery on defense. Still interested to watch this one.

NYJ-CIN: Does it matter who plays QB for the Jets? Technically, yes, because I would be more worried about Tyrod Taylor beating the Bengals than Justin Fields. But is Tyrod even healthy enough to be any good here? Is he any good in this particular offense? He still has some of the same shortcomings as Fields (4QC/GWD, untimely sacks). I’ll hedge on the Jets just to be safe.

.CHI-BAL: :Love the over more than anything, but I think Lamar returns and the team plays their best full game of the year.

CLE-NE: I don’t expect the Cleveland offense to do much here. Neither team is particularly great at running the ball.

SF-HOU: Liked the under 41.5 even before the WR injury news. Mentor vs. mentee game. Houston looked so terrible and still hung around with Seattle. Cautiously trusting that defense at home to make Mac Jones make mistakes and Houston gets a much-needed win.

MIA-ATL: Falcons should blow them out but who knows with a team that loses 30-0 in Carolina and beats Buffalo. Miami scores 20+ more often than you think with how bad Tua’s been, so I’ll go with the spread hedge.

NYG-PHI: Never had a good justification for Philly covering besides “they’re due to win by 8+” this year. Like it even less with A.J. Brown reportedly out. Hard to say subtracting Brown and adding Jalen Carter is going to turn a 17-point loss two weeks ago into a 8+ point win, but alas here we go with the pick. Because then I remembered the Giants lost 26-14 in New Orleans and gave up 33 points in the 4th quarter last week, so who the hell knows anything about these teams at this point? Maybe “Eagles win by 1-13” is the best pick here.

TB-NO: Baker bounces back. Not expecting a ton from NO here.

TEN-IND: I thought of taking Titans in a backdoor cover, but I really do think the Colts can score 38+ again. Can the Titans score 24+? I don’t see it yet.

DAL-DEN: Another one of the few close games we have here this week. I could see it going either way, but isn’t Denver contractually obligated to come back late against the NFC East this year? Denver at home by 1-3.

GB-PIT: Like I said, this is Tomlin in his element. Rodgers will play well. Defense will get some takeaways. Steelers by 1 score.

WAS-KC: The sportsbooks seem to be thinking what I was all week by putting Washington’s O/U to 17.5 points. I think the Chiefs stop the 27-game streak of 18+ points by Washington to maintain their own NFL record of 28 games doing that (twice). Some revenge against Mariota for the 2017 playoffs. You have to go back to 2020 to find the last time the Chiefs had a streak of 5 wins by multiple scores. And never in the Mahomes era have the Chiefs posted 5 straight wins by 12+ points, which is what they’d need to do here to cover again.

They’ve gone 8 straight games now without a one-score win, which is unlike them, so don’t be shocked if it’s 28-17 and they don’t cover the full 11.5 spread. That’s why I said Washington under 17.5 is the best pick on the scoreboard..

NFL 2025 Predictions Week 7: Writer’s Block Edition

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I’m blanking on a title this week, so this is the Writer’s Block Edition. Welcome to Week 7 in the NFL, which started with the night where Joe Flacco showed that throwing to Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins against a Pittsburgh defense that probably hasn’t shown Joe anything new in 15 years isn’t that hard.

It’s pretty crazy that Aaron Rodgers joins another team and the defense immediately turns to shit. So much money spent on that unit, four players who will get HOF consideration ,and yet they forced zero takeaways, allowed the 32nd-ranked run offense to pile up big yardage, and Flacco picked them apart of course. Real bang-up job, Mike.

Anyways, I’m looking forward to more shootouts this weekend, especially that 4:25 Sunday window with Colts-Chargers and Commanders-Cowboys. Some real potential there. I’ll probably watch RedZone all day, and then I want to see if the prime-time underdog trend continues. Since Week 5, underdogs are 7-1 SU in prime time. The only favorite to win was Kansas City against Detroit last week.

This Week’s Articles

2025 NFL Quarterback Rankings Week 7: We Need to Talk About Josh Allen and the Disappointing Buffalo Bills
Scott’s Seven NFL Picks: Week 7

I used this week’s QB rankings to get off a pretty good-sized rant about Josh Allen and the struggles of the Buffalo Bills, who have their bye. For the Week 7 picks, I have a lot of different markets this week, and I’m still betting on Stefon Diggs to get his first TD (most rec. yards without one in 2025). I see the Titans’ spread has moved to +6.5, so I like NE -6.5 even more than NE -7 with Mike Vrabel probably hoping for a sequel to 59-0.

I’m not even trying to bring back the reverse jinx on the Patriots. I swear…

NFL Week 7 Predictions

Had the Steelers by 1-5 on Thursday night. Oh well.

No Puka Nacua against the London Jags? I think I’ll go Jags, but the under might be the best bet there.

Carson Wentz Revenge Game is really here. But I like the Eagles to get up early and hold onto the lead this time.

Rashee Rice is back, and I can imagine a huge score for the Chiefs at home. But division games have been so shaky for big favorites, and it’d be typical NFL for a team that blew out the Ravens and Lions to barely beat the Raiders at home. I’ll take the Kansas City special: Chiefs win but don’t cover. Maybe it’s Geno in garbage time with the backdoor cover.

Saints keep it close, but Chicago wins close again.

Weather sounds absolutely horrible in Cleveland and we could even get a tornado warning here. I hope I don’t lose power after going 5 days without it the last time a wind storm swept through. But I’ll trust the better defensive team (Browns) to win that one.

Giving the Jets one more try as the Panthers don’t score much on the road.

Again, I like NE big this week.

Chargers used to be a lot of trouble for the Colts in the Manning era, but I think Indy gets this one in their return to SoFi against the other LA team, which is starting No. 4 and No. 5 tackles for Justin Herbert. The Chargers aren’t as dominant defensively this year, so I think Daniel Jones and company can get it done in a good one.

Giants’ pass rush can keep it close but don’t see Jaxson Dart throwing it well in Denver.

I’m going with Dallas at home to edge out Washington, which won’t have Terry McLaurin again while CeeDee Lamb sounds back.

Don’t expect GB to struggle that much with Arizona.

Going with the Falcons on SNF because of that defense against Mac Jones. It has to be good for some huge turnover, right? Always risky to back a road team coming off a huge MNF win, but the 49ers are missing two best defenders and going up against Bijan Robinson and London here. Give me Atlanta.

I think Baker keeps it close Monday night in the potential game of the week, and don’t forget it was a 20-16 TB win in Detroit last year. But I think Detroit wins and would probably pick differently if the full trio of Evans/Godwin/Egbuka were playing.

Seahawks are 3-9 ATS at home under Mike Macdonald. Time to change that and beat Houston comfortably.

NFL 2025 Week 6 Predictions: “Who’s Even a Real Favorite Anymore?” Edition

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Now into Week 6 of the 2025 NFL season, I’m not sure Jaguars-Seahawks isn’t any less of a Super Bowl LX preview than Rams-Ravens or Lions-Chiefs on Sunday night could be. If you think you know where this is all headed this season, good luck to you, because I think this season is headed for that 2002 or 2021 type of randomness where all teams struggle to win more than 12 games. Maybe 13-4 at best given the 17th game.

Just look at what’s been happening in prime time the last week. Sure, we can chalk some of Rams-49ers and Eagles-Giants up to division familiarity. But the way the Chiefs blew that game in Jacksonville, or the Bills playing one of their worst games in years against the Patriots?

All I know is I’ve never felt less confident in the 2025 Eagles, a team I didn’t pick for the Super Bowl in February, to get back there in the NFC bracket. It will apparently forever piss me off that the 2024 Eagles won the NFC-CG and SB by such large margins as this team has rarely been able to dominate teams going back to 2023. Remember, they almost lost last year to the Browns, Jaguars, and Panthers at home. They half-assed their way to 4-0 this year before losing the last two weeks.

It’s a tough league, but this is looking like one of those seasons where you just can’t trust anybody. It wouldn’t shock me one bit if the Jets (+7) win their first game against Denver, if the Patriots flop in New Orleans, and if the Rams blow another game they should win in Baltimore.

That’s where things are in 2025.

This Week’s Articles

2025 NFL Quarterback Rankings Week 6: The Mayfield-Darnold Passing Clinic and Every Great AFC Quarterback’s Team Takes a Loss
Scott’s Seven NFL Picks: Week 6

Click the Week 6 picks above for a MNF parlay, and a detailed preview on Chiefs vs. Lions SNF.

NFL Week 6 Predictions

Another Thursday night stunner in the books. I’m 4-11 SU going back to last week. Need to get on track.

Yeah, I hedged on spread vs. ML for the Jets, Ravens, Bengals, and Bears.

Steelers losing at home to a rookie QB wouldn’t shock me.

I like the Chargers but the OT situation is getting dicey.

Can Dallas lose in Carolina? Absolutely, but I just don’t think the Panthers are any good.

I think Geno Smith bounces back with a good game and win for the Raiders. He better, or they might need to switch to Kenny Pickett.

My gut on the Chiefs was if they won in Jacksonville, I was picking Detroit in this game. But since they lost that one, I think they win this one even if it’s supposed to be a harder opponent. The Lions have a lot of injuries in the secondary and I think the Chiefs can at least contain the running game enough and not give Goff short fields all night like we’ve seen the Ohio teams hand Detroit the last two weeks.

NFL 2025 Week 5 Predictions: Tiny Spread Edition

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We’ve already made it to Week 5 this NFL season as September is in the books. The first game of October was pretty good as I certainly didn’t think the shorthanded 49ers would beat the Rams like that, but these 49ers look different, winning almost every close game and doing it 60% of the time with Mac Jones at QB. Crazy stuff and the best argument yet for Kyle Shanahan’s system working.

In fact, I wrote about it after the game how he could go on to win his first Coach of the Year award if he wins this tough NFC West, but don’t sleep on the Seahawks.

This Week’s Articles

2025 NFL Quarterback Rankings Week 5: Patrick Mahomes Outduels Lamar Jackson Again and the Wild Start to the Jaxson Dart Era
2025 NFL Award Races Through the First Quarter: Are We Headed Towards Josh Allen vs. Patrick Mahomes for MVP?
Scott’s Seven NFL Picks: Week 5

I had my first look at the NFL award races where I changed three picks I made a month ago, including MVP after Joe Burrow was knocked out in Week 2. Not that I ever trusted him to win it on merit. I was betting on how the voters would play it.

As for the Week 5 picks, I like Travis Kelce in Jacksonville a day after his birthday, I really like the Commanders-Chargers game to be a good one, and I think the Bills take care of the Patriots on Sunday night. I’m also teasing the under in London, and for the winless Jets and Saints to show up.

NFL Week 5 Predictions

Tough loss for the Rams to fall behind in the division like that. Certainly had their chances, and I agree 100% with going for it on 4th-and-1 in overtime. If you kick the FG, you trigger sudden death and may never see the ball again. Win is more valuable than the tie there obviously. And maybe the biggest reason is I simply don’t trust that FG unit for the Rams right now with all these blocks.

We actually have four games with a 1.5-point spread this Sunday. That’s a lot as there were only five such games in Weeks 1-4 this season. If you go back to 2011, the team favored by 1.5 covers just over 53% of the time, but it’s usually better when the road team is the one favored (57.3%) like we have in 3 games this Sunday.

But I’ve really mixed it up. I think Baltimore gets the win over Houston even without Lamar Jackson and some key defenders, because I just don’t believe in the Houston offense in this particular matchup. I think the Ravens simplify things on both sides of the ball and lean on Derrick Henry more to get that win at home. But it is unbelievable to see a spread move 11 points after a QB was announced as doubtful.

I’m not sure what to make of Carolina other than that’s not a good team. Neither is Miami, but I just think the Dolphins could build on Monday night’s win and get another here, even without Tyreek Hill.

Then I did indeed go with the Saints and Jets getting their first wins. I think the Saints catch a break with Malik Nabers out as I’m not sure where the passing game is coming from with New York. I also think the Jets winning and Dallas scoring under 20.5 would be a nice play as I keep using that stat about Justin Fields going 0-25 when the opponent scores more than 20. So, if he’s going to win a game for the Jets, it’s likely going to come on a great defensive game, and we’ve already seen Dallas have two scoreless halves on the road and CeeDee Lamb is still out.

Of course, Fields could win a higher-scoring game for the first time in his career, so maybe the best pick is just to take the Jets to win that game. The Cowboys are certainly not above losing this one.

As for these other games, I think the Eagles perk up a little on offense, A.J. Brown still won’t be happy given it’s Denver, and the defense helps to cover the spread on a “Bo Picks” kind of day.

I think Chargers vs. Commanders is the Sunday game I’d most like to watch in full. I think the Chargers pull it out by one possession at home. I’m betting on Ladd McConkey to do well this week after taking a backseat the first month to Allen and QJ.

Tough call on TB-SEA this week. I’d probably back the home team in either case, so it’s Seattle for me with that defense as the Bucs still aren’t back to full health.

I think the Bills win by 8-to-14 points on Sunday night to quiet some of this Drake Maye/Patriots hype that’s building. I’d say beating up on the Dolphins and Panthers isn’t impressive, but it’s not like the Bills can point to a tough schedule this year either.

I wrote about Chiefs-Jaguars here already, but I think the Chiefs take care of business and cover.

NFL 2025 Week 4 Predictions: “You’re Both Fecking 1-2” Edition

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Yeah, I took a shot at a Banshees of Inisherin reference to describe the 1-2 Bowl between the Ravens and Chiefs. That’s a highlight game on this NFL Week 4 weekend that has the first ever regular-season game in Ireland, has some stellar afternoon games (Eagles-Bucs, Colts-Rams), Micah Parsons’ return to Dallas at night, and a Monday night doubleheader where I’m not really sure what’s supposed to be the draw to watch there.

This Week’s Articles

2025 NFL Quarterback Rankings Week 4: Lamar Jackson Sacked, Baker Mayfield’s Wild Run, and Is This the End for Russell Wilson?
Scott’s Seven NFL Picks: Week 4

As it turns out, I can just copy and paste the link and it makes it big like that. I like that better. But for my picks, I have a pretty full Ravens-Chiefs preview in there with my ML pick. I have a parlay for Packers-Cowboys too.

NFL Week 4 Predictions

Seattle almost blew that one, but we learned that the landing zone kickoff penalty putting the ball at the 40 really sucks and makes it too easy to get a game-winning drive in little time. Imagine a playoff game ending cause of that crap. Something that definitely would have gone against Peyton Manning’s Indy teams.

I can’t discount Carson Wentz blowing the game in Ireland, but I just don’t trust the Steelers against a complex defense right now when they’re not making the easy plays on offense because they don’t have any real identity there.

I really wanted to pick the Bucs to beat the Eagles again, but what’s this about Baker Mayfield questionable with an injury? That’s not good news. Then Mike Evans is out, so even if Chris Godwin and Tristan Wirfs come back, they’re still not whole because of injuries. That sucks.

Very curious to see if that Cleveland defense can make it tough as hell on Detroit. I’m leaning that way with the spread pick.

I think Houston finally gets a win but the Titans play them close.

In normal years, I’d pick the Chargers to screw up this New York game against rookie Jaxson Dart. But I’m going to trust Jim Harbaugh’s defense and Justin Herbert against an overmatched secondary to win by 7+ on the road.

There are many games where I like the total more than the spread. Over in Tampa, over in Colts-Rams, over in Bears-Raiders. Under in Bengals-Broncos, under in SF-JAX too.

If you want a more precise pick for Ravens-Chiefs, I’m going Chiefs 27-24.

Jets-Dolphins: I’d feel more confident if Tyrod Taylor was starting, but it sounds like Justin Fields, the QB who is 0-24 when his team allows more than 20 points. But that’s why I think the Jets win, because they’ll hold Miami to 20 or less at home, get the win, and the Dolphins will fire Mike McDaniel this week.

NFL 2025 Week 3 Predictions: Nobody Knows Anything Edition

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With Week 3 in the NFL, you always have to make that crucial decision on which week of data to trust: Week 1 or Week 2. Sometimes a team plays great or plays like shit in both games, which makes it a little easier. But you could also have a team beat up on two terrible teams to help make them look better, and you could have a team that loses a pair of tough games to contenders.

At this point, nobody knows anything. I think that’s reflected well with so many small spreads this week and the fact that the NFC West is the only division with multiple 2-0 teams as this is going to be a competitive season across the board. At least until the QB injuries set in as that’s already getting out of hand with possibly 5 backups starting this wekeend.

But I honestly can’t remember a tougher week of picking games, which I’ll get into below.

This Week’s Articles

Patrick Mahomes Turns 30: The Best There Is, the Best There Was, the Best There Ever Will Be?

Patrick Mahomes Turns 30: The Best There Is, the Best There Was, the Best There Ever Will Be? – I had this planned for months for Mahomes’ 30th birthday, and bookmark this link as I plan to update it with his records and accolades as time goes on.

2025 NFL Quarterback Rankings Week 3: Injuries Are Sadly Piling Up Quickly to Joe Burrow, Jayden Daniels, J.J. McCarthy – Latest QB rankings with an early admission that I’m getting sick of Jalen Hurts already

Scott’s Seven NFL Picks: Week 3 – How I’m betting Justin Jefferson vs. Ja’Marr Chase, Chiefs vs. Giants, and a parlay for Lions-Ravens

Scott’s Seven NFL Picks: Week 3

NFL Week 3 Predictions

Already took a loss on the spread Thursday night, and I expect a rough week as this is a tough schedule.

This is so difficult because I could be sold either way on the moneyline for basically every game except maybe Packers-Browns and Saints-Seahawks.

Could the Bucs slip up at home with a beat up offensive line as Tyrod Taylor gives the Jets an improved QB over Justin Fields’ no-show last week? Sure, it’s possible.

How will Mac Jones perform another week in place of Brock Purdy, or what about Marcus Mariota taking over for Jayden Daniels? I’m going with Pete Carroll to get the upset win for that reason as Geno has to play better than Monday night.

I know I like the under better in GB-CLE and KC-NYG than any ML/spread pick.

Steelers-Patriots? Beats me. My gut says New England, so that probably means Tomlin gets to 2-1. Vrabel isn’t Belichick when it comes to owning the Steelers.

Jake Browning deja vu? He already repeated his comeback win against Jacksonville from 2023 last week. Guess who else he did that to in 2023? The Vikings, who were also starting a backup QB that day (Mullens). It just feels right to bet against Carson Wentz too. Always has.

I like the Chargers because with the emergence of 3 quality WRs in that offense, that should be enough to beat an overrated Denver defense that doesn’t seem to shut down the good offenses. I do like J.K. Dobbins to score a TD against his former team though.

Feel good about Ravens prevailing as I just don’t trust the Detroit defense to slow them down Monday night. But it should be a good game for the over.