Category: NFL Stat Oddity

2025 NFL Stat Oddity: Week 15

~ Scott ~ 1 Comment

In a way, I’m glad I don’t have to come up with a fancy title for this like I do the weekly predictions, because this has not been a weekend I’d like to remember. The shootings at Brown University and in Australia set a dark tone for Sunday, and it continued through the night with the reported murders of Rob Reiner and his wife.

I grew up watching Rob’s classic films that should stand the test of time, then I found out around middle school (or early high school) that he was an actor first on All in the Family, so I got to appreciate him as Meathead too. It’s an unthinkable tragedy and not the way you’d ever want to see someone’s story end.

In a sick way, I’m relieved to hear it may have been his son having a mental breakdown who committed the murders instead of some random nutter who did this over a difference of opinion on politics as Reiner was outspoken for years about liberal viewpoints and his disdain for Trump.

In many ways, his career was so admirable as someone who could take a joke, tell a joke, but still be serious when it came time for serious matters, and he had his convictions and beliefs and wasn’t afraid to express them. I think we’re losing a lot of that in today’s society where you have to be Team Blue or Team Red at all times and there’s no straying from the one right viewpoint on so many things.

We lost a genuine person, a creative who helped film some of the most iconic scenes and lines in film history at the peak of his powers:

“You can’t handle the truth!”

“I never had any friends later on like the ones I had when I was twelve. Jesus, does anyone?”

“I’ll have what she’s having.”

It’s all so inconceivable, much like this 2025 NFL season has been.

On Sunday, we saw the Patriots blow a 21-0 lead to Buffalo, the Chiefs’ playoff streak ended at 10 years in Week 15, we lost Patrick Mahomes and Micah Parsons to torn ACLs, we may have lost Davante Adams for the biggest NFC game this Thursday, and we watched Philip Rivers throw a game-ending interception right before a delayed start time for 60 Minutes in the year 2025 after he nearly pulled off one of the biggest upsets in NFL history.

We had nine games with a comeback opportunity, and six games with a double-digit comeback win ties the single-week NFL record.

Just one inconceivable thing after another, and I believe I do know what that word means.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Bills at Patriots: Game of the Day

While Patriots fans were busy claiming they have a 15-year Super Bowl window with Drake Maye, I recall his win at Buffalo earlier this season only saw him play well in the second half. There’s so much he has to prove in this league before we start putting him in those conversations, and on Sunday, he showed us he’s not ready to take the AFC East over from Buffalo.

It may still happen this year, but it didn’t on Sunday when the Patriots had their chance with a 21-0 lead and a 24-7 lead at halftime. They folded as Maye again only had one good half against Buffalo, and it wasn’t the half that you want it to be in winning time as he is now 0-7 at 4QC opportunities in the NFL.

Sure, the Patriots technically had a go-ahead touchdown drive in the fourth quarter in this game after TreVeyon Henderson hit his second long touchdown run of the game (65 yards) on the only play of the drive. Maye was getting excessive praise for his lead blocking on the score, but that play was largely Henderson’s speed after the line failed him and he got outside to score.

But the Bills answered back with their balanced attack after what was a slow start for Josh Allen in the passing game in the snowy, cold conditions. Keon Coleman’s lack of separation actually paid off on a big third-down DPI penalty that was a legit call, and that helped extend the Buffalo drive for an 11-yard touchdown run by Cook with 6:48 left. Buffalo led 35-31.

Maye had his opportunities to deliver his MVP moment with the first 4QC of his NFL career, something I heard analyst J.J. Watt elude to on the CBS broadcast. People know he doesn’t have one yet, and his only turnover in this game was an arm punt on an earlier 3rd-and-long, but in crunch time, he was just off on some throws to Hunter Henry and Henderson. A couple of ill-timed sacks happened too, and on 4th-and-5 at his own 22, Maye’s final pass was knocked down by Joey Bosa with 1:47 left. The Bills ran out the clock to complete the 21-point comeback.

There was no reverse psychology for me on this one. I liked Buffalo all week, because I think they’re the better team, the more battle-tested team, and they understand how to win big games like this one. The Patriots aren’t there yet, and while they hit some bigger runs than I expected with Henderson, I don’t think they can count on those again in a rematch while the Bills have a reliable running game with Cook behind that line. They also still have the better quarterback until proven otherwise.

Sunday is why I think the Bills should still get to the Super Bowl even if they don’t win the AFC East. They have this experience edge, and they almost have this 2006 Colts type of thing going on where they’re a horrible run defense (truly terrible), but you can kind of expect them to do well against the pass. You saw the 2006 Colts intercept Tom Brady 4 times on SNF in Foxboro. They held up against him in the AFC-CG too that year after getting through Scrambled Brains Trent Green, Old Steve McNair, then Rex Grossman in the Super Bowl.

Now look at the Bills in 2025. They made Aaron Rodgers look bloodied and ancient, and he probably contemplated retirement, and that could even end up being the 5-4 matchup on wild card weekend here. They held Patrick Mahomes under 50% completions for the first time ever, and unlike Houston doing it with drops last week, they did it legitimately.

The Bills just held Maye to 155 passing yards after he had 200+ in every game this season. Who’s going to run wild on them in the playoffs? Probably not Denver, Jacksonville, Chargers, or Houston. Baltimore with Derrick Henry? Sure, but they’d have to make the tournament first, and we’ve seen them fold enough times in the playoffs (especially to Buffalo) to not be too worried about that this January. We’ve watched the Bills destroy Denver in the playoffs last January.

Houston might be the No. 1 team Buffalo has to worry about since that defense has owned Allen the last two years, and C.J. Stroud’s actually had some playoff success.

But with the state of the AFC, this is still setting up very well for Buffalo even if the AFC East and No. 1 seed they were supposed to get this year are both unlikely to happen. But it’s also a huge win because it creates that mental block where the Patriots still are looking up to the Bills in the AFC East.

They had their chance to take over and blew it. We’ll see how they respond from here.

Meanwhile, the 2006 Colts were hardly the best Indy team in the Manning era. But it’s the one that had the right stuff against the right set of opponents in the postseason, and that could be what happens for the Bills in 2025. You’ll just have to spare me the Allen > Manning nonsense since Manning had an all-time great year in 2006, then became the first quarterback ever to beat the top three defenses in the same postseason, and he did get through his nemesis (Patriots) in the AFC-CG.

But this could still be Buffalo’s year. It almost has to be or it never will happen for this team as currently constructed.

Chargers at Chiefs: Life Is Pain, Highness

I’m not trying to write a full eulogy now for the 2025 Chiefs on a somber weekend even though their season is officially dead. They’re 6-8, Patrick Mahomes tore his ACL, and they’re eliminated from the playoffs after everyone they needed to lose won, and after they blew a 10-point lead to the Chargers at home.

You could point to many things that ended the Chiefs’ playoff streak at 10 years, and most of it are things they have no one but themselves to blame:

  • Rashee Rice getting a 6-game suspension and the front-loaded schedule he missed for it.
  • Travis Kelce and Xavier Worthy colliding on the first pass play of the season in Brazil, likely stunting the development and plan for Worthy in Year 2 while Rice was out.
  • Kelce’s butterfingers moments on dropped completions turned interceptions in clutch moments against the Eagles and Texans.
  • Letting Herbert run for a first down on 3rd-and-14 in Brazil.
  • The long list of mistakes in Jacksonville, the night that really started to turn things sour for the Chiefs this year.
  • How they never seemed to seize the moments before and after halftime in their losses.
  • Their typical no-show performance in Buffalo in Week 9 while the Bills treat it like their Super Bowl.
  • Mahomes and the offense not closing out more drives in Denver, their last stand for the AFC West reign in Week 11.
  • The absurd penalties in Dallas on Thanksgiving, and Rice’s drop on third-and-8.
  • All the drive-killing drops and Andy Reid’s 4th-down foolishness against Houston.

Even before you get to Sunday’s execution, this was a Dead Team Walking with 60% of the offensive line filled by backups, and they even lost a fourth tackle in this game, meaning it was double third-string tackles for Mahomes on a bad leg against another strong defensive front that sacked him 5 times.

If it wasn’t showing up in the pass protection, it showed up in the run blocking on Sunday as the Chiefs had 19 carries for 34 yards from the running backs. Mahomes had 15 yards, including a 12-yard scramble touchdown on the opening drive. But after building a 13-3 lead with 0:38 left before halftime, the next time Mahomes touched the ball, it was tied again.

From there, it was your typical Chiefs failure in 2025, another game with limited possessions as the defense couldn’t get off the field on third downs, the offense couldn’t sustain drives, and Rice took another big pop for a third-down drop. Oh, there was even a 5-play stretch where four different defenders were injured.

By the time you get to the fourth quarter, Mahomes threw probably his worst interception of the season on 3rd-and-12 in the red zone to a tightly covered Kareem Hunt, a play that shouldn’t even exist in the playbook for this offense. The play all the more inexplicable when Mahomes made his two best plays of the game right before it to convert twice in a row on third down to Tyquan Thornton with flags making him redo it.

Then on the fateful final drive of the season, of course it started with a holding penalty on the punt return that backed the ball up to the KC 8 with 5:20 left. Those special teams penalties have been automatic all year.

With the ball at the LAC 46 at the two-minute warning, you still thought Mahomes would at least set up the game-tying field goal for overtime, or even get the go-ahead touchdown as he’s done so many times before against the Chargers and other teams.

But that’s when the torn ACL happened on a throwaway outside of the pocket. Non-contact injury too. Gardner Minshew had to enter the game, made a few completions, but in field goal range, the drive again went to shit with a delay of game followed by a forced throw to Kelce that was picked to end the game. To end the season.

To end an era as that was probably the last meaningful target of Kelce’s career, and he was great on the drive too with four catches. But it’s all over after the Chiefs, the masters of situational football for year, threw two picks in game-tying field goal range in the fourth quarter. A befitting ending to a terribly disappointing season.

A season where the Chiefs somehow came up short in every single one-score game except for the Colts’ comeback, and then seemingly every other close game that didn’t even involve them went the right way for teams like the Broncos, Patriots, Bills, Jaguars, Texans, Chargers, etc. to create this early elimination.

With a mid-December ACL injury, now you just wonder if Mahomes’ 2026 is compromised in any way, even if it’s just September. That’s walking a thin line on the road to 100% recovery, and while some have done it in less time (Carson Palmer and Philip Rivers had their ACLs in the playoffs in January and were back by Week 1), Mahomes uses his legs more than they ever did.

Barring a miraculous offseason, the Chiefs may enter 2026 no better than third in the AFC West odds, let alone the whole AFC. If that doesn’t spark some major changes by the organization, then I don’t know what will.

They’ve had their runs. They did things a certain way in 2018-21, then that got stale and they adjusted by trading Tyreek Hill and pulling off a strong draft class. That deteriorated too, but they almost got a three-peat out of it, so they ran it back for 2025 with the hope of better health luck, more blocking for Mahomes, more speed at receiver, and more takeaways on defense.

But that offensive line continuity lasted about five games. There appears to never have been a solid plan for how to create an offense centered around Rice and Worthy, and Reid never really knew what to do with new players like Thornton and Brashard Smith this year. The takeaways dried up even worse as the pressure packages fell off for Spags, who didn’t even have McDuffie available this week and who knows who else is done for the year with injuries piling up now. Even kicker Harrison Butker was so much worse this year you’d think Kamala had taken office in January.

Again, it’s so many different things, and it changed game to game, and yet the quarterback is the one who will somehow take the biggest shots for this failure of a season.

I was always hesitant early in the year to boast that Mahomes had a better Year 9 than Tom Brady, which was his 2008 ACL season. But he did by default, and at the end of the day, his Year 9 also became a lost ACL season.

For Brady, Year 10 (2009) was his choking dog year where he blew every close game after the Buffalo comeback in Week 1, then turned the ball over three times in the first quarter of the wild card loss to the Ravens, a 33-14 blowout where Joe Flacco had 4 completions.

I hope Mahomes can beat that season in 2026 too, but the Chiefs are going to have to really reinvent themselves here, because asking Mahomes to be Superman and have these games where he led the team in rushing and had to make more plays than ever out of structure did a number on him in the end.

They better hope this is his only season-ending injury, something most notable quarterbacks only had to deal with once in their long careers.

If 2025 doesn’t go down as by far the most frustrating, disappointing season of Mahomes’ career, then the Chiefs will have really done him wrong down the road.

Colts at Seahawks: Hello, My Name is Philip Rivers Jr. You Killed My Father. Prepare to Die.

A lot is wrong in the world right now, but the image of Philip Rivers laboring from the pocket in a one-score game in the fourth quarter in the late Sunday afternoon window is a real throwback to the 2010s.

So is watching him throw a game-ending interception like clockwork, but you have to give the guy a lot of credit for even trying. He went from celebrating his 44th birthday and five years of retirement on Tuesday to suiting up as a 2-touchdown road underdog against an elite defense five days later.

The fact his only turnover came in the last seconds when he was forced to throw something deep out of desperation after his defense wasted his go-ahead field goal in the final 50 seconds is a testament to his knowledge of where to go with the ball and quickly. Rivers was only sacked once in the game too.

Sure, there were some embarrassing snaps like when he fell down and had to get up before going down again. He looked about as unathletic as an NFL quarterback ever has on that play. And it’s not like he was pushing the ball down the field with luck. The Colts’ two longest pass plays gained 17 and 16 yards.

But if you compare how someone like Minnesota rookie Max Brosmer played against this Seattle defense, then Rivers looked great by comparison. Still, it’s another loss after the Seahawks made their sixth field goal of the game after they nearly gave this one away, trailing 13-3 early.

Rivers is one of the only true football psychopaths who would even try playing after being this far gone from the game. I imagine he’ll try to finish the season, and he’ll have better starts than this.

But it does say a lot about where young quarterbacks are in this league if he’s truly their best option right now. Still, this game could have been an absolute disaster and instead it was nearly an all-time upset.

Packers at Broncos: These Broncos Go to 11

We already had one home underdog on a 10-game winning streak lose on Sunday (Patriots), so it wasn’t about to be two with Denver hosting Green Bay. I’m proud to say I got both games right this week, and I liked Denver because of the home-field advantage and the way the Packers don’t usually create takeaways despite the presence of Micah Parsons and his pressure.

Well, unfortunately Parsons tore his ACL in this one, so there probably goes my Super Bowl pick in the NFC with Green Bay. They already lost Tucker Kraft to a torn ACL, so now you lose your best defender that was supposed to put you over the top, and wideout Christian Watson also got hurt (again) in this one, so that’s more bad news.

The Packers played well early but the Denver defense got some picks from Jordan Love, who we know can be reckless with the ball. So can Bo Nix, but he played maybe his best NFL game yet on Sunday with 4 touchdowns, which is again why I think he has that ability to be the Joe Flacco or Eli Manning of his generation and go on a Super Bowl run with some improbable devil luck going his way. He’s just got that flat liner approach to his game where the moment doesn’t seem to get too big for him against all expectations.

Love had the ball four times in the fourth quarter of a one-possession game, but the best he could do was a field goal early. He couldn’t get the offense moving on any of the three drives down 34-26.

It’s a big win for Denver (12-2), the 11th in a row, as it looks to get the No. 1 seed this year.

Lions at Rams: Sean McVay Is Cooking

The Rams got off to a bit of a slow start in this one with Aidan Hutchinson getting a pick, and Detroit led 24-14 at one point. But the Rams have really cranked up their rushing attack since the bye, and they had 159 more yards in this one to go along with 368 passing yards by Matthew Stafford, who also threw two touchdowns.

Puka Nacua dominated with 181 receiving yards on a day where Davante Adams left with a hamstring injury that could be troubling going forward. But the Detroit defense still had few answers for such a balanced, explosive, and efficient attack from the Rams who piled up 41 points and controlled the second half.

Jared Goff played well early, but three straight three-and-out drives to start the second half is where the game got away from the Lions, who were always in catch-up mode after that. They didn’t register a true 4QC attempt until there were 13 seconds left in a 41-34 game, only enough time for a lateral attempt 80 yards away from the end zone, which obviously didn’t come close to working.

The Lions (8-6) are in a tough spot for the playoffs now while the Rams (11-3) have that huge game in Seattle this Thursday.

Ravens at Bengals: (Joe Burrow’s) Misery

Joe Burrow raised some alarms with his words on his 29th birthday this week that he might already be thinking about an early retirement a la Andrew Luck. Others saw it as a cryptic message to management to shape up or ship him out a la Carson Palmer in 2011.

On Sunday, Burrow by his own words said he wouldn’t have helped any team win a game with his play. He suffered the first shutout (24-0) of his NFL career as the Bengals came up empty on nine drives as Burrow threw two picks under pressure, including a pick-six in the fourth quarter to make it 24-0.

It was one of the roughest Burrow games ever, and you could see it early when he took a sack that knocked them out of field goal range on a cold day. He didn’t have Tee Higgins (concussion), but he didn’t have him on Thanksgiving either and did much better than this.

The Ravens didn’t need to do a ton offensively with the way this one played out. Let the Bengals hold the ball for almost 40 minutes before they self-destructed. In fact, the Bengals had the highest time of possession (39:19) for a team that was shutout in NFL history. The previous record belongs to the 2014 Raiders (Derek Carr’s rookie year) with 36:56 TOP in a 52-0 loss at the Rams.

Not the kind of records you want to be setting.

Panthers at Saints: Maybe Tyler Shough Should Have Started Week 1…

Early this season, the Saints were competitive with Spencer Rattler at quarterback but they weren’t winning. Maybe they should have started Tyler Shough earlier? He’s done a good job, and on Sunday against Carolina, he led the first fourth-quarter comeback and second game-winning drive of his career in a 20-17 win.

But coach Kellen Moore and Shough did get a bit lucky on the game-winning drive here. Out of timeouts, I really don’t think a QB draw with 12 seconds left was a good idea. Who do you think you are, the 2021 Cowboys in the playoffs against the 49ers? Oh wait, Moore was the OC for that team too. But I think right there you either risk the clock running out before the spike, or you set up a 62-yard field goal that might be too long.

Instead, Moore and Shough got lucky when a late hit was called on the slide, and the kicker only had to make from 47 yards, which he did to win the game. That’s the first 4QC for the Saints this year.

If Shough can keep ascending, they might even be the new favorites in the NFC South, a wasteland division, in 2026.

Vikings at Cowboys: Season Over After Facing NINE

Notice they really didn’t show Jerry Jones after the opening interception when a tipped ball got J.J. McCarthy. That’s because he did very well the rest of the night, shredding that defense when he targeted everyone not named Justin Jefferson, who dropped a touchdown and finished with 22 yards on 2-of-8 catches. Just a weird night, but McCarthy had 3 total touchdowns and threw for a career-high 250 yards with no sacks taken.

The Vikings can cook with this type of quarterback, but he won’t see many defenses as bad as Dallas. On the other side, the Cowboys had yet another game where they settled for way too many field goals, Brandon Aubrey missed two of them for a bad night for his high standards, and George Pickens (33 yards) was again very quiet.

Just like that, Dallas is 6-7-1 and needs a miracle to make the playoffs that isn’t going to happen now. They could have at least gave us one more week of keeping it interesting, because I do think it’s possible for Washington to beat the Eagles once. And we know the Bills can beat that team in Buffalo.

Alas, it’s all but over for the Cowboys, who punted on the season before it even started with the Micah Parsons trade and gave us a little fool’s gold in November before the harsh reality of another long offseason with no deep playoff run for America’s Team.

Giving up 34 points to a quarterback like McCarthy, who became a meme for the face of sucking ass this year, is a fitting way to end things for the 2025 Cowboys, a team that deserves to finish 8-8-1.

Cardinals at Texans: It’s the Arizona Blowout Week

This week was the blowout loss for Arizona (40-20), and Jacoby Brissett threw for 249 yards and 3 touchdowns anyway, coming up 1 yard short of his 8th game this year with 250 and multiple scoring tosses.

But the offense had minus-7 yards by the time it was 17-0 in the first quarter as Houston jumped all over them early with a big touchdown pass to Nico Collins, then the Cardinals botched some special teams play to dig the hole early.

Houston (9-5) might just run the table playing like this in this AFC.

Raiders at Broncos: Kenny Pickett Is Not the Answer

JFC, I thought Kenny “OneDrive” Pickett could at least give me one touchdown drive. But the 2025 Raiders are the ultimate get-right game as they lost 31-0, almost as badly as when they lost 31-0 to the Chiefs, which was obviously an outlier for that team this year.

But Pickett, starting for the first time this year for an injured Geno Smith, was 15-of-25 for 64 yards with 4 sacks for 35 yards. So, he really didn’t contribute anything to the offense, which was held scoreless on eight drives (no first downs on 5 of them).

The Eagles made it look pretty easy. Dallas Goedert caught 2 short touchdowns and it should have been 3.

Jets at Jaguars: Have a Day, Trevor Lawrence

I never bought into the Aaron Glenn hiring since he had even worse of a defensive coordinator than Robert Saleh when he took the job for the Jets. At least Saleh could point to 2019 with the 49ers. Glenn’s resume is basically “I had Dan Campbell’s offense lighting it up and I wasn’t the worst defense in the league with a ton of guys on injured reserve last year.”

Because the Jets are terrible on defense under Glenn, and it’s hard to say they were any better before Sauce Gardner and Quinnen Williams were traded than they are without them.

But Sunday was certainly a low point in a 48-20 loss to the Jaguars where they let Trevor Lawrence become the first quarterback ever to throw for 300 yards, rush for 50, and throw 5 touchdowns with 1 rushing score too.

Browns at Bears: Caleb Williams Is Fearless

Maybe I should have stuck to my narrative that the 2025 Browns are overrated on defense, because the Bears had few problems dropping 31 points on them in a blowout win. The defense came up with plenty of splash plays against rookie Shedeur Sanders (with an assist from Jerry Jeudy on a pick in the end zone), but Caleb Williams made some great throws and had one of his better games too this year.

Titans at 49ers: Third-and-Purdy

There used to be a ‘Third-and-Jimmy’ thing when Jimmy Garoppolo was the 49ers’ quarterback. He was unusually good at converting third downs in obvious passing situations, and maybe we should just give Kyle Shanahan some credit for those play calls and his scheme. Because apparently Brock Purdy has done some similar things, or at least he was cooking on third down on Sunday against maybe the worst team in the NFL in the Titans.

The 49ers were 9/15 on third down and the game had more points (37-24) than expected, though the spread (49ers -12.5) was on point. It seems like the Titans do better at scoring against NFC West teams than anyone else this year.

Commanders at Giants: No Late Darts

The Commanders (4-10) finally won their first game since Week 5, but they didn’t make it easy, losing two fumbles in the final 5:50 to give the Giants (3-11) a shot at a 15-point comeback late.

Chalk it up as another good data point for kicking the extra point first, because by making it a 29-21 game with 3:43 left, the Giants got a lucky break with a McNichols fumble, and Jaxson Dart was at midfield with 2:38 left in an 8-point game. There’s your chance to tie it. Unfortunately, he came up empty on 4th-and-8 at the Washington 38 to end the rally attempt.

Almost just as bad, Dart reportedly made his fifth trip to the blue tent for a concussion check this season before returning to finish the game. These Giants better invest in one hell of a good backup quarterback.

Next week: Week 16 could peak right away with Rams-Seahawks on Thursday night. Can Sam Darnold really keep losing to this team? Can Stafford lock up MVP with a big night in a huge game? Then we get two Saturday island games but at least the night one (Packers vs. Bears) could be good for the NFC North.

Sunday is probably the worst 1:00 PM slate of the year just because of the reality of these teams in Week 16. I guess Chargers-Cowboys is the standout. At 4:00, the Jags are in Denver and the Steelers are in Detroit. The SNF Patriots-Ravens game was flexed. Then I suppose we’ll see Rivers get another shot against the 49ers on Monday night to end it and maybe all but end the Colts’ playoff odds this year.

2025 NFL Stat Oddity: Week 14

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

I said Sunday could prove to be a franchise-altering day in the AFC, and I think the results speak for themselves.

  • The Colts (8-5) have likely gone from 7-1 and the No. 1 seed to out of the playoffs after losing to the Jaguars again and losing Daniel Jones to a torn Achilles.
  • The Bengals (4-9) blew a snow game in Buffalo that should absolutely give the team the green light to fire Zac Taylor and his entire staff after Joe Burrow and company will miss the playoffs for a third-straight season.
  • The Ravens (6-7) lost at home to the Steelers (7-6), and while the AFC North is hardly decided, Baltimore still has to play the Patriots and Packers (teams competing for No. 1 seeds), and teams they just lost to at home (Bengals and Steelers on the road). If there was ever a season to force John Harbaugh out of town…
  • The Chiefs (6-7) couldn’t finish another close game against a good team and are on life support for the playoffs, needing to win out and for the Colts and Chargers to lose multiple games (actually not that unrealistic). But with how this year has gone, they’d be foolish not to make some major changes for 2026 as their AFC West reign is over and so may be their playoff streak.

I just wrote earlier this week how we’re trying to make sense of the new contenders this year and the unprecedented decline of so many contenders at once.  However, saying teams like the Bengals, Ravens, and Chiefs (Steelers too) need to make big changes for 2026 is not an overreaction to one off year. There have been things festering for multiple years there, and with the teams in dire situations going into Week 15, maybe they’ll finally realize something has to change.

As for the rest of Week 14, a lot of the games were duds as we’ve only had six comeback opportunities. In fact, the only double-digit comeback win of the last two weeks was the Bills over Bengals today, and the only fourth-quarter lead change on Sunday was Joe Burrowing throwing that pick-six in Buffalo.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Texans at Chiefs: Game of the Day

You have to give the 2025 Chiefs credit. If this was their last stand for the playoffs, and that’ll look increasingly likely if the Chargers win on Monday night, then they gave the home crowd all the greatest hits to their season:

  • An embarrassing pass rush when they didn’t blitz, leaving numerous receivers wide open on third-and-longs.
  • No takeaways on defense again.
  • Harrison Butker had about the loudest doink ever on a missed 42-yard field goal.
  • Limited touches for Brashard Smith (a 7-yard run) and Tyquan Thornton (19 yards but also had a touchdown bomb knocked away in the end zone) despite showing solid play.
  • Remember when the first pass of the season was Travis Kelce running into Xavier Worthy in Brazil? The first pass here saw backup left tackle Wanya Morris suffer a game-ending injury, leaving the offensive line without three starters and placing a third-string left tackle (UDFA rookie) in his NFL debut against the No. 1 defense.
  • Mahomes led the team in rushing with 59 yards (they’re 0-4 this year when that happens).
  • Season on the line, a pass from Mahomes went right off of Kelce’s hands for an interception (third time this year).

But there were a couple wrinkles in this performance that made it stand out as the worst loss of them all this season for the Chiefs: Aggression inconsistency and dropped passes.

The Chiefs, even going back to last year, have made a habit of playing games with limited possessions, usually getting 8-9 drives a week, the lowest total in the NFL. This makes it harder on the offense as every mistake gets magnified, but they made it work better last year with clutch plays to close out one-score games. The exact kind of plays they keep failing on this year.

But this game was different. The Chiefs had a season-high 13 possessions as each team had the ball 13 times. That’s because there were a lot of three-and-out drives and quick stops. It wasn’t a game with limited possessions, so the Chiefs could stand to make some mistakes here as the defense played well even after losing top corner Trent McDuffie early.

That’s why Andy Reid’s fourth-down decision making didn’t make any sense. He let the Dallas game beat him twice, because he was criticized in that one for a fourth-down punt in a shootout with Dallas. But this wasn’t a shootout. It was a grind with C.J. Stroud playing ice cold in the second half.

Reid let the offense go for a 4th-and-1 that led to a 2-yard Kareem Hunt touchdown in the third quarter. They needed the touchdown, so that was fine. But two drives later, why settle for the 36-yard field goal on 4th-and-2 at the 18 to tie the game with 1:50 left in the third? Why not be consistent and go for it again with your offense starting to move it well and the defense playing so well? You were getting possessions.

Then the real head-scratcher: 4th-and-1 at your own 31 in a 10-10 game with 10:22 left. The Texans just punted on a 4th-and-1 at their own 35, because they knew what kind of game this was. Why didn’t Reid understand it? Instead, he let the offense go for it, and Mahomes’ pass to Rashee Rice was defended tightly by Stingley, and I couldn’t tell if it was another defensed-dropped or what. But it was a turnover on downs either way.

Now a struggling Houston offense was set up 31 yards away from the end zone, and that gave the Texans new life to get a go-ahead touchdown, which they did. That decision largely killed the Chiefs in this game.

Then in getting the ball back in a 17-10 game, Reid basically did it again, going for a 4th-and-4 at his own 41 where failure almost likely leads to a 10-point deficit with under 5:00 left. Game over against this defense. And once again, Mahomes’ pass to Rice was flat out dropped.

Surprisingly, Houston went three-and-out after that one, giving Mahomes another chance from 92 yards away and 3:44 left. After a short drop by Kelce on first down, Mahomes threw a pass that should have been a first down to him that went off his hands and right to the defense for the third pick of the night. The second one to start the fourth quarter was an arm punt on third down out of FG range and out of 4-down territory, but this one hurt and it’s something Kelce has done three times this year to Mahomes – none bigger than here.

That one was the dagger as the Texans used up most of the clock to add a field goal for a 20-10 lead with 0:30 left. From there, it was just two stat-padding completions to avoid Mahomes finishing a full game with under 150 passing yards for the first time in his career. It was the first time he threw for 3 interceptions and no touchdowns.

But look what it took to get there. Three linemen out, the backup LT going out on play 1, the No. 1 defense on the other side, and a career-high 8 or 9 drops depending how you want to count some of those plays. Those drops combined with some really poor fourth-down decision making by Reid were actually far more damaging to the game than the backup offensive line was. This wasn’t Super Bowl 55 or Super Bowl 59 all over again with constant pass rush.

This was receivers not getting open against good coverage, then when they did, not completing plays as Mahomes has never had this many drops in one game. Just a ridiculous effort in the biggest game of the year for this team.

If this was Kelce’s last playoff-contention type of game in his NFL career, he finishes it with more drops (2) than catches (1) for the first time in his career. I’d say Mahomes might be a little happy on the downlow if Kelce chooses to retire and marry the most famous woman in the world. But then when you tell me Rice, who dropped a big third-and-8 in Dallas last week in a similar clutch situation, is supposed to be his next top target, I think the Chiefs are in some long-term trouble if they don’t sort this out.

On a cold night with both teams feeling the playoff pressure, the Texans stepped up and the Chiefs did not.

Fight or flight. The 2018-24 Chiefs had it in them to get it done in these games. The 2025 Chiefs simply do not, and the shame of it all is people will look at a game like this and still blame it all on the quarterback.

As for the Texans, they have hands down the best defense in the league this season. They were also very good in 2024, so we know this isn’t a fluke. They’ve been to the playoffs the last two years, got to the divisional round both times, and if they keep playing like this, they just might be able to win out until the Super Bowl in this weakened AFC. They might be the closest team we’ve seen to the 2015 Broncos from a decade ago, and yes, Davis Mills did his Brock Osweiler-level job of saving the season with some big wins over the Jags and Bills.

From 0-3 to 8-5, DeMeco Ryans and company deserve a lot of credit for this turnaround. As for Reid and the Chiefs, they aren’t mathematically eliminated, but it sure looks dire even if collapses by the Chargers (see schedule) and Colts (Jones/schedule) are not improbable at all.

What’s improbable is thinking the 2025 Chiefs can ever get through four straight wins without screwing up a game. They haven’t done it all year, and I no longer expect them to.

It’s a lost season.

Steelers at Ravens: The Rivalry Continues, Same As It Ever Was

This may be a selfish reason to want the continued employment of Mike Tomlin and John Harbaugh for these teams, but would the Steelers vs. Ravens rivalry be the same without them? Like, imagine these teams go in the opposite direction and hire some dorks trying to cosplay as Kyle Shanahan and Sean McVay. It just wouldn’t be the same and what makes this such a great rivalry filled with hard-fought, close games.

You can always throw out the records and spreads when these teams play. Did it matter that both played like shit at home in big losses last week where they turned it over and the quarterbacks were brutal? Nope, you ended up with a 27-22 thriller between two multi-time MVPs at quarterback in their first ever meeting.

Aaron Rodgers turned 42 this week but he looked as good as he has all season. He hit a deep ball to DK Metcalf on his first pass after going an entire month without a pass completed over 20 yards down the field. I want to say he had four in this game alone. He also scored his first rushing touchdown in over four years on a third-down scramble. His movement looked much better this week as if he got a Lazarus Pit to celebrate his 42nd birthday.

Then again, the Baltimore defense has been known to help quarterbacks perk up as Rodgers passed for a season-high 284 yards while taking no sacks. He also had no running game as the Steelers finished with 15 carries for 34 yards for him. Meanwhile, the Ravens rushed for 217 yards in the loss, producing this hilarious statistic about losing a game with a huge rushing margin:

That’s Steelers vs. Ravens in the 2020s for you. More accurately, that’s the Lamar Jackson era as to this day you still have to question Jackson’s arm and ability in games like this, another big one with first place in the AFC North on the line and the Ravens having a tougher remaining schedule.

Jackson won his last two starts against the Steelers in 2024, but his rest of career numbers and moments have been poor to say the least. In this game, he didn’t break 100 passing yards until the fourth quarter as the Ravens were leaning on the ground game with Derrick Henry and Keaton Mitchell also broke a 55-yard run.

There were some bright moments for Jackson in the fourth quarter, but the Ravens never put it together for a touchdown drive while the Steelers floundered on offense late. There was a go-ahead touchdown to Isaiah Likely that was ruled a drop after Joey Porter Jr. helped knock the ball out before Likely got a third foot down or did a football move. That was a tough call without great clarity from the NFL on what a catch is in 2025.

That drive ended in no points, because after the Likely mistake on first down, the Steelers stopped Henry twice, then Mark Andrews possibly got in the way of a Jackson pass on fourth down intended for DeAndre Hopkins in the back of the end zone with 2:22 left.

But given one more chance with 1:56 left and 74 yards to go, Jackson led a very poor two-minute drill, taking 69 seconds just to move the ball 8 yards. Reaching the Pittsburgh 30 with 9 seconds left, any shot at a Hail Mary was denied when Alex Highsmith sacked Jackson to end the game and give the Steelers a 7-6 record and first place.

The Ravens have struggled to play complementary football all season, and Sunday was no different. Pittsburgh finally won a big game this year without relying on a ton of turnovers on defense. Rodgers was excellent for three quarters, and if Likely wasn’t in a funk with the end zone, it may have been wasted again by the defense.

But the Steelers have been getting the best of this rivalry, especially when the games are at their closest. That’s also why I had full confidence in Pittsburgh still finishing with a winning record, because I knew they’d never get swept by Baltimore, especially not this Baltimore team.

Now we’ll see if they can build on this win and take advantage of a home game with Miami next week. Maybe even get a break with the Bengals possibly sweeping Baltimore on Sunday to create more separation.

But the sportsbooks have finally come around to making the Steelers the favorites (-160 at FanDuel) to win the AFC North over Baltimore (+170) and Cincinnati (+1300). There’s a reason almost every 1-5 team fails to come all the way back to make the playoffs.

The Ravens are just too mistake prone this year. Similar to the Chiefs in that regard, another team in the AFC they can’t seem to beat when they have to.

Bears at Packers: Ben Johnson Was Right Again

Ever since the Bears hired coach Ben Johnson, he has done an incredible job of saying the right things time and time again. He just probably wishes he wasn’t right when he said last week that the 9-3 Bears are winning in spite of their passing game with Caleb Williams.

On Sunday in Green Bay with the No. 1 seed on the line and the lead in the NFC North, Johnson was very prescient as Williams struggled mightily early on while Jordan Love had some key passes down the field for big plays (including third downs) that paced the Packers to numerous leads in a game they never trailed.

But Williams did make some of his best plays late, and even tied the game in the fourth quarter before the Packers marched for a game-winning touchdown. I predicted a 27-20 win by Green Bay, and they were up 28-21 late with Williams driving for what could have been his sixth comeback in the final 2:00 this year as you had to think Johnson probably goes for 2 on the road the way he is from the Dan Campbell school of thought.

But after the run got stuffed on 3rd-and-1, Williams blew a good play call with a bad throw on fourth down and it was intercepted in the end zone to end the game. Just like that, the Bears (9-4) fell from the No. 1 to the No. 7 seed.

These teams will meet again in 12 days, but Williams is going to need to be a lot more efficient if the Bears are going to get a split here.

Bengals at Bills: Mr. Perfect Until He Has to Be

I can say this about most quarterbacks, but Joe Burrow is actually more likeable than his annoying fans make him out to be. Watching him on those shows like Quarterback S2 or Hard Knocks In-Season with the AFC North, you can see he’s a football junkie, a Batman fan, and just wants to win games. This league is also in need of a pocket passer who can still frequently throw for 300 yards and multiple touchdowns without being a play-action merchant.

But where things get annoying with Burrow is the nonstop nicknames and the way the media has shoved him into conversations he doesn’t belong, or pretended that he’s a clutch player. I saw the “Joe Brrr” notification from the NFL app before Sunday’s snow game in Buffalo, and it was just earlier this week where I again pointed out that Burrow and his top wide receiver duo simply don’t win games in the clutch or shootouts despite being the most expensive trio in NFL history.

Burrow also has just one comeback win in the final 8:00 of a game in his career, and Sunday was no different. My other issues with Burrow stem from him being a sack merchant, often getting into trouble by looking for the big play. It should go against his nature as a perfectionist, which I think gets him into trouble in games where things don’t go well. He’ll let it snowball and not recover from a big mistake.

It all happened again on Sunday when Burrow went from playing a really fine game in Buffalo in the snow with four touchdowns on the first six drives. It was like he picked right up where he left off with his success against the Bills in 2022-23.

But one fateful pass from the Buffalo 33 with 5:35 left, leading 28-25, changed everything for the Bengals. Burrow tried to throw a quick pass, did a weird shot-put delivery on it, and Christian Benford was there for the 63-yard pick-six to put the Bills ahead 32-28.

Is Burrow so sick of me pointing out he has one comeback win in the last 8:00 that he tried to create a situation for himself to succeed? Then on the very next play, he got picked again on a battled ball at the line. The Bills took over at the Cincinnati 29, and of course Josh Allen, who got Dalton Kincaid back at a good time, was going to take advantage of the No. 32 defense on a short field by throwing another touchdown on fourth down.

Burrow answered quickly with his fourth touchdown pass to cut it to 39-34 with 2:13 left. That drive is another example of why stats that ignore the scoreboard show Burrow doing well in this situation when it was the two drives before this that mattered more when he had the picks.

But even after his defense sacked Allen to bring up 3rd-and-15, they gave up another 17-yard scramble to Allen, who also took off for a 40-yard touchdown earlier with inexplicably no defender in sight of his path to the end zone.

This was a very winnable game for the Bengals on the road to keep their season alive, but Burrow picked the worst time to make his worst play of the year. He crumbled instead of finishing the game, and given his history, it’s not that surprising.

He’s just not proven to be a closer yet, and this will be his third-straight missed postseason.

I still contend this is the worst Buffalo team since 2019, but if this is an AFC where they don’t have to worry about the Chiefs at all, don’t have to worry about going to Baltimore, and don’t have to worry about these Bengals, then Allen has no excuses left to not get to a Super Bowl.

Letting Drake Maye, Bo Nix, Trevor Lawrence, or C.J. Stroud get there before Allen does would be disastrous to his legacy.

Colts at Jaguars: Indiana Is Cursed in 2025

I was all in on the Jaguars to win this one despite being a 1.5-point home underdog. But you have to see Daniel Jones tear his Achilles on a different leg than the one he had the fractured fibula with. I’m not a doctor, so I can’t comment if that may have led to this the way Tyrese Haliburton’s calf injury led to his Achilles in the NBA Finals, but it’s just been that kind of cursed year for Indiana sports teams. Caitlin Clark also had a season-ending groin injury in a year her Fever had a shot in the playoffs.

The Colts would have had a shot in this AFC if they were healthy, but between Jones going down and Sauce Gardner getting injured shortly after they traded for him, it’s been a brutal stretch for the Colts. From 7-1 to 8-5 and little hope with that tough schedule left.

Worse, they don’t even have a healthy (even if temporarily healthy) Anthony Richardson to go to and see if he can give them anything for the playoff run. They might have to snag Joe Flacco away from the Bengals somehow.

But give credit to the Jaguars. They scored a lot of points on short fields set up by the defense like they’ve been doing this year. I actually think they can get to 12-5 given the schedule, which includes another game with battered Indy.

Crazy how you can go from 7-1 and averaging over 3.0 points per drive to potentially finishing with a losing record and an offense that’s barely top 10, if that, when you consider the Colts have to play the Seahawks, 49ers, Jaguars, and Texans.

Saints at Buccaneers: Tyler Shough Can Move Like That?

With all due respect to Taysom Hill, I don’t think your services are needed anymore in New Orleans. If Tyler Shough can move like that on his two rushing touchdowns in Tampa Bay, then there’s no reason he can’t keep the ball on some of those snaps they give to Hill.

Shough’s second touchdown run also completed the first game-winning drive of his NFL career as the Saints (+8.5) completed the 24-17 upset on the road despite the Bucs having more healthy weapons for Baker Mayfield, who struggled in this one.

But I would still argue Tampa Bay pissed this one away more than the Saints won it. Tampa Bay finished 2-of-7 on fourth down, so when you get 11 drives and end five of them on fourth down (plus one pick), that’s really brutal offense, and it’s not like these were 4th-and-desperate situations late in the game.

I don’t know if Todd Bowles wanted a bow with his points to take them, or if he thought this was the right strategy as these were the five fourth-down failures:

  • 1Q, tied 7-7, 4th-and-1 at NO 45: Bucky Irving lost 7 yards on a run.
  • 2Q, up 10-7, 4th-and-1 at NO 49: Tucker stuffed for no gain on a run.
  • 2Q, up 10-7, 4th-and-15 at NO 47: Mayfield incomplete pass (I guess they weren’t confident in the 65-yard field goal in the conditions)
  • 4Q, tied 17-17, 4th-and-2 at NO 46: Mayfield incomplete pass to Godwin (Saints drove for game-winning touchdown from there).
  • 4Q, down 24-20, 4th-and-4 at TB 26: Mayfield 3-yard pass to Cade Otton for a turnover on downs to end game.

The last one is obvious, the one before halftime makes sense given the field position, I guess. But those three short ones at midfield, out of field goal range, and not in a bad situation on the scoreboard? Might have been able to argue they should punt there and put the rookie QB on a long field.

The Buccaneers and Panthers are both 7-6 with two matchups to come. This thing is far from over in the NFC South if the Bucs are going to keep playing with their food like this.

Commanders at Vikings: For Who, For What?

I’ll never understand what the Commanders were doing with Jayden Daniels in 2025. He had a few injuries as a rookie, but his elbow injury this year was not necessary as it happened after Dan Quinn kept him in a blowout against Seattle far too long.

Then given this team was 3-9 and hadn’t won since Week 5, what’s the point of even playing him again this year? He returned Sunday, he was rusty against a complex defense, and he re-injured his elbow on an interception return play. Now they’ll probably sit him for the rest of the year, but he should have been on the bench in the Seattle blowout and this elbow stuff never should have happened.

You have to protect your best asset. I’m not sure Quinn makes it to 2026 as the defense didn’t get any better despite that being the side they needed to fix desperately. Now the offense is messed up as well.

Seahawks at Falcons: Road Warriors Strike Again

This was actually a 6-6 game at halftime before the Seahawks blew it open in the third quarter with Rashid Shaheed scoring his first Seattle touchdown on a 100-yard kickoff return, then a Bijan Robinson fumble led to the first of two JSN touchdown catches as the rout was on.

The Seahawks (10-3) have been strong on the road all year, and now they get to face the Colts without Daniel Jones before their huge Thursday night rematch with the Rams in Week 16 when they’ll have a chance to take the NFC West lead.

Broncos at Raiders: The Worst Beat of the Year

Given how horrible the Broncos were on offense in the 10-7 win against this team last month, you have to give them credit here. Granted, 7 of the 24 points were a punt return touchdown, but they only had 7 possessions in this game and they gained 81, 41, 47, 91, and 90 yards on the five drives that weren’t limited by the clock and situation at the end of each half. They were sustaining drives with ease.

Some bettors just wish they would have gained 4 more yards on their last snap, because that left enough time for the Raiders, who trailed 24-14 with as little as 0:05 left, get into field goal range after an absurd penalty for trying to stay on top of a receiver who was down extended the game one more down. Then Pete Carroll decided to kick the 46-yard field goal, it was good with 0:00 left, and the Raiders (+7.5) covered the spread in a ridiculous 24-17 final.

I’ve had a pretty good spread week (8-5 ATS), but that was definitely the worst beat of the season on one of these.

Rams at Cardinals: Someone’s Winning in Fantasy on These Cardinal Blowouts

You just know there’s someone out there winning their fantasy league or taking down DFS contests (they still run those, right?) by stacking Jacoby Brissett and Michael Wilson (11/142/2 on Sunday). All that sweet volume and very little real-life NFL value because they either get blown out like they did here to the Rams (45-17), or they come up short in the fourth quarter of a one-score loss.

But this one was the blowout as the Rams led 45-10 at one point. Big bounce-back effort after last week’s loss in Carolina.

Titans at Browns: Shedeur Gets Some Stats, Cam Ward Gets the Win

This Toilet Bowl between the Titans (1-11) and Browns (3-9) actually proved to be far more interesting and nuanced than most Week 14 games. I can’t believe I’m about to write as many words on a Week 14 game between these teams as I am.

It was in theory a matchup of what were supposed to be the top two quarterbacks in the 2025 draft before Shedeur Sanders fell to the fifth round. I knew he’d try to shine in this one against the worst team in football, and to some extent, he did. Sanders finished with 364 passing yards, 3 touchdown passes, 1 touchdown run, 1 interception, and he led a comeback attempt in the final 5:00 that came up a hideous 2-point conversion try short of tying the game.

Meanwhile, Cam Ward only completed 14-of-28 passes for 117 yards, 2 touchdowns, and one pick against that tough Cleveland defense. But Myles Garrett, much like last week against the 49ers, got the lone sack for the defense.

It was also another game where the rest of the team sold out the defense with poor field position as the Titans had touchdown drives of 53, 38, and 8 yards as well as a 6-yard field goal drive without a first down gained.

But late in the game with the Titans up 31-17 thanks to those short fields (and a big day for Tony Pollard with 161 yards and two scores), we saw the shortcomings of the new down 14 strategy that I was just questioning last week. What happens if a team misses both conversions and is still down 2 late? That’s what happened to Cleveland in large part because they called a weird trick play for the final one instead of letting Sanders do something more conventional.

Let’s just note that Cleveland scored that second touchdown with 1:03 left. That left plenty of time to recover an onside kick and win the field goal as I said teams will do in the NFL as  you can’t really time out when you get a touchdown. Then had the Browns made the first 2PC, if you score with 1:03 left, look at how much time that leaves the Titans to go get a game-winning field goal with the new kickoff rules and the improved range for kickers with the new k-balls. The same is true if they had only tied the game at 31.

So again, I understand why teams do the down 14 thing. I just don’t think it’s all that advantageous because of what it does to the game state. For one, I don’t like the prospects of having to convert a do-or-die 2PC at any point in the game, so I’d rather avoid that. Then if you get the first one and you’re down 6, that should trigger the opponent to try better to add to the lead or run out the clock than if they had the cushion of a 7-8 point lead. Then there’s the end-game scenario of taking a 1-point lead quite possibly with plenty of time for the other team to use 4-down football to set up a game-winning field goal.

Yeah, I’m just never going to be a big fan of that, and games like this make it look even less attractive to me. Going to overtime has never actually been less scary than it is now with the new rules there. There’s no real sudden death unless you majorly fuck up like a pick-six or safety on the first drive.

Alas, this was the Toilet Bowl, so it didn’t really matter what these teams did. Just a game with far more points – I believe the total closed at a season-low 33.0 – and intrigue than it ever deserved to have for Week 14.

Also, it’s going to make the Shedeur cult even crazier because he’s delivering the big plays they said he would in the NFL. Just don’t let them hear that some have been filled with YAC, or that he’s only done it against the two worst NFL teams this season (Vegas and Titans) and lost 26-8 to a San Francisco team that was missing its two best defenders.

Cults don’t like pesky facts like that.

Dolphins at Jets: The Streaks Continue

He didn’t have to do much in this one, but Tua Tagovailoa is now 7-0 as a starter against the Jets after the Dolphins quickly opened up a 21-0 lead and held on for the 34-10 win. The Jets were stuck playing UDFA rookie Brady Cook from Missouri after a Tyrod Taylor injury.

With the loss, the Jets (3-10) have been eliminated from the playoffs for the 15th season in a row, the longest active drought in the four major American sports leagues.

Next week: The Week 15 schedule is decent even if the island games are not. The Bucs need to pick things up at home against Atlanta on Thursday night. We’ll see a Baltimore-Cincy rematch from Thanksgiving that’s lost some luster with both losing Sunday. Chargers-Chiefs could be similar if the Chargers lose on Monday night. Bills-Patriots is the big one, and we’ll see if NE can win the AFC East or if Buffalo can try to repeat its 2021 success by coming back to beat them and eventually destroying them in the wild card.

Green Bay vs. Denver is decent for a non-conference game between possible No. 1 seeds. Lions at Rams might be more fun to watch for three quarters though. Colts should get rocked in Seattle. I’ll be writing this early while we’re stuck with Cowboys vs. Vikings on SNF. Steelers usually win at home on MNF, and Miami usually loses on the road under McDaniel to .500+ teams, but we’ll see how that one goes to end the week now that the Steelers will get props this week instead of being in that underdog role.

2025 NFL Stat Oddity: Week 13

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

It was already a wild start to NFL Week 13 with the underdogs going 4-0 on Thanksgiving and Black Friday. Too bad we couldn’t get Rams-Panthers on Saturday in a national window for people to see the biggest upset of the week take place. That’s the kind of game that ends your MVP campaign if it was in prime time a la Tom Brady (2021) and Brock Purdy (2023).

Alas, we’ve had 8 games with a comeback opportunity through 15 games so far, and no double-digit comebacks yet. Sounds like a good spot for the Patriots to come back from 10 down in the fourth quarter to get Drake Maye his first 4QC against the terrible Giants, or maybe it’ll be Jaxson Dart’s moment with the way this week has gone.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Rams at Panthers: Game of the Week

That’s why they play the games. You wouldn’t have guessed the Panthers (+10) would be able to take down the Rams if you watched these teams play in prime time last week, but befitting of the holiday start to Week 13, another big upset was on tap thanks to the great equalizer that is turnovers.

If the Rams protect the ball better and stop the Panthers from scoring two touchdowns on fourth downs, including the game winner, then they win this game quite easily. But after a week where I got into it with the Matthew Stafford fans for saying his MVP case was weak, he played his worst game of the season and was the main reason they lost here.

Even if you excuse the red-zone pick for Stafford on a deflected ball at the line, he still threw a pick-six, and he still fumbled in game-tying field goal range late in the game. Those are very costly mistakes.

Beyond that, he was getting boosted again by a heavy dose of play-action passes, a running game that produced 153 yards on 20 carries, and even on a go-ahead 89-yard touchdown drive in the fourth quarter, it was 59 yards from the running backs on the ground and 31 yards by Puka Nacua on a brilliant one-hand catch that may have been the catch of the year before the one Treylon Burks made for Washington at night. Far better catch than throw by Stafford.

So, he was just a bit off for much of the game, and maybe this is the type of thing he needed after everyone was blowing smoke up his ass and the Rams’ ass this year. But I was never buying it with an MVP case built around an unsustainable TD-INT ratio, one of the worst stats out there. I know Matthew Stafford’s game. He didn’t magically learn how to stop throwing picks at 37.

As for Carolina, it certainly complicates how you view Bryce Young in this offense. He was money in just about every big spot in this game, including icing it on third down instead of giving Stafford the ball back in a 31-28 game. He won a shootout against what people were viewing as the best team in the NFL. He gave the Chiefs and Eagles all they could handle last year too, so maybe playing high-stakes football for Alabama has him prepared for these matchups.

But he’s so tough to figure out as that’s now 5 game-winning drives in 2025, and 11 of his 13 wins in the NFL are with a game-winning drive. When he’s not doing that, he’s usually averaging a poor YPA and/or struggling to throw for 200 yards, so again, it’s very hard to say what the Panthers should do with him.

But these types of wins are likely going to get him a fifth-year option in Carolina and keep him around as the Panthers try to return to the playoffs for the first time since 2017. It’s one thing to come back against the Falcons (redundant). A game like this against what was the No. 1 scoring defense – that’s Houston now – is big time.

Props to the Carolina defense too for coming up with those takeaways. They’re playing hard for Dave Canales.

Bills at Steelers: The Old Man in Winter

The 2025 Steelers have had some of the usual “Same Old Steelers” games already. Winning by the skin of your teeth against the Jets in Week 1, blowing a winnable game in Cincinnati to Flacco, stepping up against the Colts’ top-ranked offense, clowning the Browns, and losing a wild one to the Bears on the road with their rookie coach.

But if there’s something that feels different and feels off, it’s the way they’ve totally shit the bed in the second half of games they were in early with contenders. Against the Seahawks, Packers, Chargers, and Bills, the Steelers were cumulatively ahead 40-29 at halftime and were outscored 88-19 in the second half to go 0-4 in those games.

The contenders have routed this team after halftime all year, and that feels different to me. Sunday was maybe the worst yet as the Steelers turned a 7-3 halftime lead over Buffalo to a 23-0 rout in the second half. It all started with that strip-sack Joey Bosa produced against Aaron Rodgers, who again was struggling to find any open receivers on a cold, windy day. He got bloodied on that hit, and he was only more ineffective from there after a poor first half too.

Mason Rudolph came into the game, and just like last week in Chicago, he threw a pick to the deep left sideline on his first drive. Then Rodgers returned and the Steelers still never scored another point. Their only touchdown came on a 39-yard drive as the defense at least produced some early takeaways for Buffalo, but the second half was a different story.

Pittsburgh was supposed to run the ball well in this matchup after showing good run blocking and concepts in Chicago last week. But against Buffalo’s poor run defense, the Steelers put up 58 yards. Meanwhile, Buffalo rushed for 249 yards, the most in Pittsburgh by any team since the Bills did it in 1975 with you know who (Juice) leading the way that day.

James Cook had 144 yards, which is more than the 123 passing yards Josh Allen had. Allen also rushed for 38 yards and a touchdown. But maybe the most depressing part of this was that the Bills had their backup offensive tackles in the whole game, and the Steelers still gave up this kind of record rushing performance against them. They didn’t sack Allen once on his 23 throws. They were more interested in barking and fighting after plays than doing anything productive in the second half.

Just another incredibly poor finish that led to about more boos than I can remember at Heinz Field (screw that renaming). It really does feel like this could be the season where they finally part ways with Tomlin if things don’t end well. It’s trending towards a 9-8 finish at best where they’ll need some help from other teams to beat the Ravens.

The standard has fallen off years ago, but it’s getting harder to recognize this team with a bunch of over-the-hill veterans who are unlikely to get better as the season goes on, and the weather gets colder and the bodies have to endure more pain.

Same OLD Steelers.

Broncos at Commanders: They Can’t Keep Getting Away with This

The 2025 Broncos truly are deserving of the “He can’t keep getting away with this!” meme from Jesse Pinkman in the final season of Breaking Bad. If you thought the 2024 Chiefs won close games by thin margins, these Broncos have set an NFL record with nine straight wins when trailing at some point in the game. They’ve also won seven of their last eight games by no more than 4 points, and they’ve won their last four games by 1-3 points each.

They weren’t expected to get much of a push from Washington (+5.5) on a night where Patrick Surtain II returned and Jayden Daniels was still out for the Commanders, but they got pushed all the way to a game-deciding two-point conversion in overtime by a 3-8 team.

Washington even had to overcome some pretty brutal officiating mistakes on the final drive of regulation just to tie the game, like a bad grounding penalty and a missed trip on Denver. But Mariota, who is not very good in these situations, delivered with an incredible play on fourth down in overtime to escape a sack and get a pass off that at least drew DPI to extend the game. But after throwing a touchdown on fourth down, Mariota’s 2PC pass was knocked down at the line by Nik Bonitto. Had he gotten that pass over him, it’s likely caught for a game-winning score.

That’s just how thin the margins have been for Denver this year. The Broncos are 10-2, but I find it very hard to trust this team in January. The nicest thing I could say is Bo Nix wasn’t bad in this game and it wasn’t an eyesore like the Raiders game on TNF a few weeks back. But it definitely wasn’t the efficient performance you’d expect against a team that hadn’t won in many weeks.

We’ll learn a lot more about this team in the coming weeks when it finishes with the Packers, Jaguars, Chiefs, and Chargers. That should tell you if they can be trusted in the playoffs or if they’ve already used up their luck with a 6-1 record at GWDs already this year.

Texans at Colts: AFC South Is Officially Three-Team Race

Once 0-3, the Texans are 7-5 and right back in the AFC South race after a controversial 20-16 win in Indianapolis. It was a chance for the No. 1 defense to prove its worth against what had been the best offense in the NFL this season. It was also a big game for C.J. Stroud, returning from a concussion.

But it’ll definitely be the game that Colts fans remember for some controversial officiating. I didn’t watch enough of the game to truly comment on everything going on there, but Houston’s game-winning drive to break the 13-13 tie alone had quite a lot of shady stuff:

  • On a 3rd-and-15 at the Indy 25, it looked like the Texans got away with a delay of game after not beating the play clock on time.
  • On that same play, Kenny Moore was flagged for DPI even though it looked like he had no significant contact whatsoever on the receiver, who flailed a bit at the end to try selling it, so that’s a huge penalty on 3rd-and-15.
  • After Nico Collins rushed for a 7-yard touchdown, the extra point sure looked like it was no good, but they said it was.

The Colts had two drives to answer that touchdown, but the Houston defense rose to the occasion both times, stuffing Jonathan Taylor for a huge 5-yard loss that led to the Colts kicking a field goal, and then stopping Daniel Jones on three consecutive passes at the Houston 31 with 1:45 left. Then the offense put it away with some runs to hold on for the 20-16 win.

Very interesting division race with the Colts (8-4), Jaguars (8-4), and Texans (7-5). The Colts have to go to Jacksonville next week where they haven’t won in over a decade, and the Texans have to go to Arrowhead on Sunday night where their season ended last year.

We’ll see what comes of it as maybe Jacksonville is the horse to back right now with Jones’ fractured fibula and the schedules remaining for these teams. But with Houston’s defense and experience of winning this division the last two years, it’s also hard not to believe in the Texans. In fact, I think if they can beat KC, they’ll get to 11-6 maybe.

Raiders at Chargers: Herbert’s Hand

The Chargers pulled away late for a 34-14 win over the hopeless Raiders, but all eyes will be on the news for Justin Herbert’s hand injury. He fractured his left non-throwing hand and needs surgery. How do you play a week after that? I guess we’ll find out with the Chargers hosting the Eagles next Monday night in a big one.

But yeah, nothing I can say about the Raiders that the Chargers’ social media team didn’t already do better.

49ers at Browns: Not Déjà vu for Brock Purdy

Cleveland’s upset over the Browns in 2023 in one of Brock Purdy’s worst games ever had me nervous about this one. Compared to 2023, the Browns have a stronger defense and the 49ers are worse on both sides of the ball.

But the fear was all for naught as the 49ers won 26-8. Granted, their three touchdown drives covered a grand total of 64 yards as the offense and special teams (mostly the ST) sold out the defense with short fields three times. The 49ers only averaged 3.9 yards per play, but to their credit, they had no turnovers, were 11/17 on third down, and Myles Garrett only got the one single sack for the defense.

All in all, not a bad day unless you’re Jauan Jennings, who is being called a “hoe” now by fellow players after a couple of recent incidents.

As for the Cleveland offense, I think the scouting profile on Shedeur Sanders is looking accurate. He’ll get you some big plays like the 34-yard touchdown pass to Harold Fannin before halftime, but he’s got inconsistency issues, takes deep sacks, and the scrambling isn’t all there. A work in progress they’ll likely keep working out instead of going back to Dillon Gabriel, but Sanders can’t save this offense this season.

Vikings at Seahawks: Not the Sam Darnold Revenge Game I Had in Mind

I really thought Sam Darnold would stick it to the Vikings to show them the mistake they made in letting him go and going with J.J. McCarthy, who was out again with a concussion for this one, putting the spotlight on undrafted rookie Max Brosmer.

But Darnold didn’t throw a touchdown pass. He only threw for 2 more yards (128) than Brosmer in another hard-to-watch game in 2025. JSN didn’t even have a catch in the first half as I assume Brian Flores employed the old Belichick strategy of taking away a No .1 receiver and making the others beat you.

But Brosmer on the road against that defense was enough on his own to beat the Vikings in this 26-0 shutout. He really just had to avoid the big mistakes in this one as his defense was keeping him in it. They got a strip-sack of Darnold, putting the ball at the Seattle 13. But on 4th-and-1 from the 4, Brosmer blew the game up by not just taking a sack before he let go of the ball right to a Seattle defender for an 85-yard pick six. That was basically the game.

Brosmer threw three more picks in the second half, and the Seattle offense didn’t find the end zone until the fourth quarter. Not that they needed any offensive touchdowns in this one.

The Vikings are just that big of a mess at the most important position. I miss the days when they had a veteran journeyman under center.

Falcons at Jets: Again, Not Serious Teams

The Atlanta Falcons have basically done nothing but disappoint us since a certain 28-3 lead, but I’m really going to remember the 2025 team as a special kind of disappointment. I thought Jeff Ulbrich’s defense would humble Aaron Glenn’s team as a way to stick it to the Jets where he was the interim coach last year. That his pass rush would overwhelm Tyrod Taylor, who is basically a deluxe version of Justin Fields with a lot of the same flaws in winning close and high-scoring games and taking sacks.

Instead, Taylor only took 2 sacks, he hit a deep touchdown to Adonai Mitchell after the DB fell down, and he led a game-tying touchdown drive (his 10-yard scramble score tied it), then after three of the quickest three-and-out drives you’ll ever see in a tied game, the Jets set up Nick Folk for a 56-yard field goal to win it 27-24 at the gun.

That’s the fourth blown lead for the Falcons this year in the fourth quarter, and they are 0-6 at GWD opportunities. I’m not convinced Raheem Morris needs to come back next season.

Cardinals at Buccaneers: Same Old Jacoby

Again, is there anything more reliable than the Cardinals this year? Jacoby Brissett has come here to do two things: Throw for 300 yards and throw a touchdown pass to Trey McBride. Once he’s accomplished those things, it’s time to fail on the game-winning drive as he did once again in a 20-17 loss in Tampa, going 4-and-out inside his 20.

Not the biggest game from Baker Mayfield, but he got Bucky Irving back, who scored and had 61 rushing yards, Chris Godwin also had 78 yards in his best game since he was injured last year.

Bucs still have No. 4 seed one-and-done team written all over them if you ask me, but we’ll see if they can stay healthy the rest of the year.

Saints at Dolphins: Tyler Shough’s First Clutch Attempt Is a Pick-Two

The Saints are 0-5 at 4QC/GWD attempts this year, and the first one for rookie Tyler Shough will be memorable for all the wrong reasons. Getting the ball back in a 19-11 game, Shough led the touchdown drive, but when it came time for the typing 2PC, the Saints’ false start pushed it back to the 7. That led to a shallow throw by Shough that was picked off and returned the distance by Minkah Fitzpatrick for a pick-two to put the Saints down 21-17.

But there was still 1:17 left as teams down 8 don’t take their dear sweet time to score the way people pretend this week. Sure, things were bleak with needing the onside kick recovery, but they got it to work out. Just like that, Shough had 75 seconds and a timeout to drive 55 yards for the game-winning touchdown.

But he was stuffed on a 4th-and-1 sneak that had no real push or momentum to it. Just like that, the threat was over and it’s another loss for the Saints.

Jaguars at Titans: Getting 1-16 Vibes

In noting Tennessee’s lucky ass win against the Cardinals this year, you have to wonder if that will help this team avoid 0-17 as it’s just been pitiful at scoring points and coming even close to a win. I still don’t think that highly of the Jaguars, but they led this one for the last 46 minutes before winning 25-3.

Tennessee will not be an attractive head coach job in 2026.

Next week: We’re going to learn a lot starting Thursday night with Cowboys vs. Lions to see which of those teams is serious about the playoffs. On Sunday afternoon, Bengals at Bills suddenly takes on more importance with the Bengals needing to run the table with Joe Burrow back. The Colts have to win in Jacksonville, which they haven’t done in over a decade. The Steelers and Ravens continue their rivalry for first place in the AFC North with four games to go. In the late window, all eyes on Bears at Packers for possibly the No. 1 seed if you can believe it. Then it’s Houston at Kansas City on SNF, and the first thing to check will be that OL injury report for the Chiefs in a must-win game. MNF isn’t bad either with Eagles-Chargers, two shaky teams. A lot to look forward to.

2025 NFL Stat Oddity: Week 12

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

The NFL Week 12 schedule delivered with three games going to overtime where taking the ball first or second was a debate. We also had a 21-point comeback in a game that maybe you should have expected it since one team has consistently been putting in half-assed efforts this year.

But I still heavily lean towards going on defense first in overtime with the new rules. This way you know exactly what you need on offense, you probably will have enough time to move the ball downfield using all four downs, any part of the field you want, and that’s the kind of football we rarely ever see in the NFL. You’re usually working against a major time constraint at the end of a half in the hurry-up offense. Not so much here.

Alas, the Jaguars and Lions both got the ball first and won their games after a score and defensive stop. But not the Colts. They actually let Patrick Mahomes touch the ball last like Kyle Shanahan did in Super Bowl 58 and he made sure they never saw the ball again. Who you’re playing and the context of the game still matter for your overtime decision, but in most cases, I think you’d be better to go on defense first just like they did in college for years. When there’s no sudden death anymore on that first drive? Not a hard choice.

We had seven games with a comeback opportunity this week (six on Sunday). Pretty good drama except for one of the worst Sunday Night Football games.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Colts at Chiefs: Game of the Week

The Chiefs had been the only winless team (0-5) in one-score games this year, and that’s why I think it was important for them to win in adverse conditions on Sunday instead of easily pushing past the Colts by double digits like their other wins this year.

Sure, you don’t want to have a tipped ball getting intercepted by a lineman on the first throw of the game. You don’t want the refs calling bullshit facemask penalties on your right tackle to take a touchdown off the board when he’s a penalty machine enough on his own without phantom calls. You don’t want to fumble in the red zone while you’re still down 20-9 in the fourth quarter, finishing the game minus-2 in turnovers (2-0) and minus-4 in sacks (4-0).

But those mistakes are the reason this game was a grind that the Chiefs needed overtime to win 23-20, a game where they never technically led for any seconds before Harrison Butker’s fifth field goal of the day went through in OT.

Still, I think it’s the kind of clutch win against a good team (Colts were 8-2 and coming off a bye week) that the Chiefs can build from as they accomplished several good things in this game:

  • Mahomes threw for 352 yards, ran for 30 more, and limited his 4 sacks to just 6 lost yards.
  • Kareem Hunt paced the offense with 30 carries for 104 yards as the Chiefs ran 91 plays to 50 for the Colts, gained 494 yards, and held the ball for 42:35.
  • Despite the Colts getting corners Sauce Gardner and Charvarius Ward together for the first time, the Chiefs found ways to get Rashee Rice (141 yards) and Xavier Worthy (59 yards) open for 200 yards as they led the way instead of a 36-year-old Travis Kelce (43 yards).
  • The defense shut down Jonathan Taylor, holding him to 58 yards on 16 carries with nearly half of those yards coming on one run (27 yards).
  • Alec Pierce had been hot for Indy but was limited to a single 26-yard catch.
  • Daniel Jones was ice cold to finish this game, and the Colts went three-and-out on four straight drives to end it against a KC defense that was No. 24 in three-and-out rate this season.

This is the kind of gut-check win that has defined this run of success for the Chiefs. But it may have all been for naught in overtime after the Chiefs faced a 3rd-and-7 following a 3-yard run by Clyde-Edwards Helaire. Seriously, 2nd-and-10, season the line, and you’re going inside from the shotgun with CEH for 3 yards?

But that’s when Mahomes delivered his most important completion of the season for 31 yards deep to Worthy. Rice had another 20-yard play soon after that as this may have been his best NFL game ever as he finally established that quick connection that produces meaningful YAC in this offense. Then it was a matter of Butker hitting from 27 yards out, which he did for the 23-20 win.

The Chiefs still have some things to work on. But look around the rest of the NFL. Who doesn’t have flaws this year? They can build on this but it is a quick turnaround on Thursday against a Dallas team that can score and is playing with some confidence.

Meanwhile, the Colts (8-3) are in some trouble with the Jaguars a game behind and two games to come against each other. They could even fall out of the playoffs entirely, so the Chiefs may actually find themselves rooting for the Jags to win the AFC South since they actually have a H2H tie-breaker over a team in Indy.

Big missed opportunity from the Colts on a day where Jones was never sacked. Still, they kept going to him with the Chiefs shutting down the run and he didn’t deliver. It’s a problem after how good this offense was for half the season.

Eagles at Cowboys: The Most Half-Assed Team in the NFL

After six games this year, I said that the 2025 Eagles were one of the most half-assed teams in NFL history. A team that could drop 21 points by halftime and be lucky to only add a field goal in the second half like they did in Week 1 against Dallas when they won 24-20.

Well, I haven’t been keeping up with the stat as I see the Eagles haven’t been so bad at this in recent weeks. But Sunday was quite the spectacle as they penned their magnum opus: a 21-0 lead in Dallas in the first 20 minutes followed by the Cowboys outscoring them 24-0 the rest of the day. It’s the fourth time the Cowboys have erased a 21-point deficit to win, their largest comeback deficit in team history.

It’s incredible how this keeps happening to a team that’s trying to repeat. The Eagles scored three touchdowns on three drives before going punt, end of half, punt, punt, punt, missed field goal (56 yards), Saquon Barkley lost fumble, fumbled punt return, and a punt after Jalen Hurts was sacked on a key 3rd-and-2 in a 21-21 game.

Barkley finished with 22 yards on 10 carries and that fumble on a catch in Dallas territory in a tied game. The fumbled punt return actually didn’t end up hurting the Eagles as they stopped the Cowboys on 4th-and-goal from the 1, a curious decision as the Eagles didn’t look capable of putting together another scoring drive after this cold streak.

And they didn’t. Hurts looked like he might have something cooking before a 3rd-and-2 sack changed everything. The Cowboys got the ball back and big catches by Jake Ferguson and George Pickens (playing better than CeeDee Lamb this year) set up the field goal from 42 yards out to win the game with no time left.

The Cowboys had three pass plays of 43-plus yards to three different receivers in this game as they took advantage of some injuries in Philly’s secondary. But the offense has to take ownership on these dismal scoreless halves. They have way too much talent to be doing this, but this is what happens when your offensive coordinator has no clue what he’s doing.

I still don’t think the NFC East is in any jeopardy with the Eagles at 8-3 and the Cowboys at 5-5-1. Remember, no one has repeated as NFC East champs since the 2001-04 Eagles, so this game being the catalyst for another Philadelphia implosion would be an all-timer. But I don’t think we’re there.

However, this keeps Dallas alive in the wild card hunt, and it hurts the Eagles’ chances at that No. 1 seed. With the way this team is playing, taking Eagles first half ML, Bears full game ML on Friday might be a good call this week.

They seem to have forgotten games are 60 minutes long.

Giants at Lions: The Full Jameis Experience

How fun is the Jameis Winston experience when it’s like this? His touchdown catch from 33 yards out in the fourth quarter gave the Gants a 10-point lead, but that’s been their undoing all year. Sure enough, they did it again as Jahmyr Gibbs was incredible with multiple long touchdown runs in this game.

Then I can’t fault the Giants for going for the 4th-and-5 in a 27-24 game instead of kicking a field goal to go up 30-24, which is a 6-point lead, which is fool’s gold. My issue is they called some poor plays on second and third down, which led to the 4th-and-6. Gotta seize that moment as a touchdown there should win the game.

Instead, the Lions got the ball back, and sure enough, their kicker was good from 59 yards out to force overtime. Totally saved the day. Then after Gibbs exploded for 69 yards on the first play of overtime for a touchdown, Winston had his shot to answer and failed. Great fourth-down sack by Aidan Hutchinson to put a stamp on the 34-27 comeback win.

Buccaneers at Rams: First Half TKO

What can be said about SNF? It was one of the most pointless second halves I’ve ever seen in an NFL game as Baker Mayfield couldn’t return after a horrible decision to have him throw a miracle Hail Mary in a 31-7 game when he was already ailing. We’ll see if that costs this team a division title and playoff spot after their third-straight loss.

But just total control for the Rams from the start. Cade Otton’s weird bobbled catch, knees down, ball stripped away for a “pick six” quickly set this one on a path to a disastrous night for the Bucs. Just not giving themselves a fair shot to win.

But yeah, there was just a single field goal added after halftime as the Rams won 34-7. A game where both teams could have agreed to just kneel out the second half and be better for it.

Patriots at Bengals: Defensive Effort Wasted

The rare NFL game where both defenses scored a pick-six. You’re not surprised if Joe Flacco throws one of those, but Drake Maye doing it by lofting a horrible pass right to the Bengals’ defensive back was certainly unexpected.

But the Bengals wasted one of their best defensive efforts this year. Beyond the pick-six, they contained the running game well, and they came up with big stops in the red zone as the Patriots only had one touchdown drive.

But the Ja’Marr Chase suspension for spitting at Jalen Ramsey last week was a big one as Flacco could have used his best weapon in a game where multiple receivers were hurt, including a concussion for Tee Higgins. That left Flacco firing to a random cast on the final drive in a 26-20 game.

He converted a few fourth downs but not the last one to end the game as the Patriots escaped to a league-best 10-2 record. Are they actually that good of a team? I don’t think so. But they keep finding ways to win.

Steelers at Bears: Aaron Rodgers Misses Last Chicago Bout

We’ll see what comes of the Steelers’ season at 6-5, but maybe they’ll regret not letting Aaron Rodgers give it a go against the team he’s owned his whole career. Pittsburgh’s defense was bad in this game again outside of one pressure on Caleb Williams in the end zone that he exacerbated by giving up a strip-sack to T.J. Watt that was recovered for a touchdown.

The Steelers were up to their turnover tricks again, but I feel like they lost the game in three key places:

  • After the strip-sack, they got another turnover (hard to see) on a fumble at midfield, but instead of building on their 14-7 lead, they were stopped with Heyward on the Tush Push at midfield, and Chicago drove a short field for the game-tying touchdown. Big swing.
  • Mason Rudolph threw a pick on his first deep pass, then tried to get away with dink-and-dunk throws the rest of the way until he got strip-sacked in the late third quarter, which led to a Chicago touchdown and 10-point deficit.
  • Down 31-28, Rudolph had a couple of cracks at it and may have gotten it done for at least the tying field goal had the Steelers lined up properly (illegal formation penalty wiped out 22-yard scramble to midfield), then he has to do better on those last throws as Chris Bowell may have been able to make it from 60 to force overtime.

Just a disappointing day for Pittsburgh as it rushed for 186 yards and got a lot of YAC plays again on offense. But they let Caleb Williams get away with too many rough plays that they couldn’t capitalize on.

Vikings at Packers: What If Your QB’s Alter Ego Was One of a Functional Quarterback?

I think it would have been so funny if J.J. McCarthy’s “Nine” alter ego was a quarterback who only had good moments in games against Big Ten-region teams like the ones in his division. A trip to Green Bay (Wisconsin)? Sounds great.

But if Sunday was any indication of what kind of quarterback we’re dealing with here, he won’t be around many more years for the Packers to exploit him in Vikings-Packers games. Green Bay finally covered the big spread with ease this year in a 23-6 win that was never in doubt.

McCarthy threw for just 87 yards and that’s even worse when you take away 35 more yards from the 5 sacks where he flirted with safeties. All Minnesota could do was two long field goals on nine drives as McCarthy was picked twice to end the game.

Green Bay didn’t need to show much on offense to win this one comfortably.

Falcons at Saints: You Are Not Serious Teams

I picked the Falcons (+1.5) to win even without Michael Penix and Drake London because I just thought they were due a win, they’d turn things over to Bijan Robinson and the running game, and that pass rush could stop a rookie (Tyler Shough) in his third start.

Some of that was exactly right, but Kirk Cousins did his defense few favors by throwing a pick-six. Otherwise, the Saints’ offense 3 points on 10 drives. They even missed two field goals, so neither team looked very serious to me in a game between the NFC South’s worst teams.

We’ve fallen a far way from shootouts between Drew Brees and Matt Ryan. Then again, bringing out your quarterback on 4th-and-goal at the 1 so Taysom Hill can throw an incomplete pass to waste half of the third quarter does sound like something late-stage Sean Payton would have done too.

Jaguars at Cardinals: Same Old Script

Seemingly every Jacksonville game in 2025: Trevor Lawrence raises coach Liam Coen’s blood pressure with horrific turnovers, but the defense gets some timely pressures, someone with a private college-sounding name scores a touchdown, and they win by 1-3 points.

Seemingly every Arizona game in 2025: Jacoby Brissett throws a ton of passes, takes a late lead, the defense gives it up, and he can’t close the deal in a one-score loss.

Those two scripts collided on Sunday and the Jaguars moved to 7-4 with another 27-24 overtime win to the chagrin of other AFC fans as this team hasn’t played a lot of good football this year but keeps winning games like this.

They overcame 4 turnovers by Lawrence in this one, and that doesn’t include an ill-advised incompletion on 4th-and-1 that gave Arizona its chance for a game-tying field goal that forced overtime.

It was a little surprising to see the Jaguars want the ball first in overtime, but they made it work out. The offense got a 52-yard field goal, then Brissett reminded us why he’s now 7-25 at game-winning drives after throwing incomplete on 4th-and-4 at the Jacksonville 42.

Seahawks at Titans: 30-24? Really?

Have to pat myself on the back for this one and going with the first-half spread (Seahawks -6.5 or -7.5 depending when you placed it) as the best bet instead of the full-game spread, the Titans going under their team total, or thinking this might be the week for Rashid Shaheed to catch a long touchdown for his new team.

Instead, it was the JSN Show again with 167 yards and 2 touchdowns as the Seahawks led 16-3 at halftime, then 23-3 before eventually winning 30-24 with the backdoor cover open for Cam Ward, who still scored more points than I ever imagined in this one. Granted, the Titans had another return touchdown on a punt.

But these are the games where Seattle looks great. Beating up on the worst teams this year.

Jets at Ravens: Ho-Hum, the Ravens Won Again

Something’s just been off with the Ravens since Lamar Jackson came back. He struggled for a long time to get to 100 passing yards in this game, Derrick Henry only averaged 3.0 yards per carry, they were 2-11 on third down, and they were just fortunate to be playing the Jets, who never really get turnovers this year.

The Jets may have even been ready to pull off the upset as a 13.5-point underdog in Baltimore, but three key moments sunk them in the 23-10 loss:

  • Up 7-3 before halftime, Tyrod Taylor took a sack on 3rd-and-2 at the Baltimore 39 and the Jets had to punt instead of adding points.
  • After the Ravens took their first lead at 10-7 in the third quarter, the Jets failed on 4th-and-2 at their own 42, setting up the Ravens for a short touchdown drive and 17-7 lead. You don’t have Detroit’s offense anymore, Aaron Glenn. Punt there and make Baltimore earn it on a long field.
  • Down 20-10 with 6:58 left, Breece Hall fumbled in the red zone and that’s a wrap.

The Ravens (6-5) are above .500 for the first time this season but that doesn’t make them dangerous yet. Not playing like this on offense against bad teams.

Browns at Raiders: Chip Kelly’s Swansong

Yes, Shedeur Sanders winning his first start gets the headlines, but this one was really about the Cleveland defense sacking Geno Smith 10 times, which has led to offensive coordinator Chip Kelly getting fired Sunday night. He clearly didn’t have much of a line to work with, but he also never really had a plan for Ashton Jeanty either.

Meanwhile, the Browns did a good job of limiting Sanders’ exposure to the pass rush with just 1 sack on 20 throws while still giving him some freedom to make plays, like he did on an early 52-yard completion. I’m not sure what in the Kadarius Toney got into Jerry Jeudy on his fumble play, but that could have been another huge play for the offense to get points, and of course Sampson took a screen 66 yards for a touchdown in the fourth quarter to ice it.

But the Raiders are just hot garbage this year, so I’m not sure this really proves anything either way for Sanders, who should be glad he didn’t get drafted there.

Next week: Thanksgiving means island games coming out the ass this week with three on Thursday (pretty strong slate, to be fair) and a Black Friday game (Bears vs. Eagles) that takes on higher importance now. That’s actually the highlight of the week as the best Sunday can offer is Bills-Steelers, Texans-Colts, and I can’t believe they’ve stuck with Broncos vs. Commanders for SNF. One of those nights I start writing even earlier. Then Giants-Patriots on MNF, which isn’t the most compelling way to start December.

2025 NFL Stat Oddity: Week 11

~ Scott ~ 1 Comment

I kept calling it the best Sunday of the 2025 NFL regular season. Did it live up to that hype? There were nine games with a comeback opportunity and eight game-winning drives, so that’s pretty good. I’m not sure I’d call any of the games classics or even in the game of the year competition, but it certainly was an eventful day and probably one that should reshape expectations for the rest of the season.

After predictions on Saturday night, I decided to look up how home teams have fared in the big games this season between teams who currently have a winning record. It hasn’t been as strong in recent years, and this year, the home team was 13-16 in such matchups.

Well, the home teams were 5-0 on Sunday, a clean sweep. I like to say the NFL is a league that’s about who you play and when you play them, but it looks like where you play still matters too. We’ll see if that holds up for the playoffs, which your guess is as good as mine if teams like the Chiefs, Lions, and Packers will still be in that tournament at this rate.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Chiefs at Broncos: Game of the Week

It’s 5:35 AM as I ask myself do I feel like ranting about the Chiefs for a long time, or just hurry up and get into a warm bed? I’m thinking the bed sounds better, because there’s nothing that happened here that we haven’t been seeing all year with the Chiefs, who are 5-5 and in danger of missing the playoffs. Forget the AFC West reign likely ending now; they could miss the playoffs altogether because of the way the teams ahead of them keep winning and the future schedules for each.

The Broncos played well, played with a better focus and flexibility, and Spags hasn’t shown any answers for Bo Nix in three games yet. Remember, they win that game in Arrowhead last year if the special teams of the Chiefs didn’t block a 35-yard field goal. Nix had all day on a huge 3rd-and-15 before the two-minute warning, and he threw a perfect deep ball to Franklin to set up the winning field goal late. He did all of that with almost no running game with J.K. Dobbins out.

Meanwhile, the Chiefs threw wildly deep in moments they didn’t have to, forgot to run the ball, and put the game on Mahomes while forgetting to actually get those speedy wideouts involved (Rice and Worthy) against a secondary that didn’t have Patrick Surtain II. It’s getting scary that a 36-year-old tight end (Kelce) remains the most (only?) reliable target in the passing game. They need to find more snaps for Tyquan Thornton, who again made an impact with a 61-yard bomb on a big 3rd-and-7 in the third quarter when the Chiefs pretended to have something figured out in this one.

That’s after a bunch of bad penalties early that kept tripping them up from scoring more points, then even after a great effort by Kelce on the go-ahead touchdown in the fourth quarter, Butker’s extra point was blocked when it should have been a 20-16 game. Maybe the defense can actually force a fourth-down stop had the Broncos needed to go for one late instead of kicking a game-tying field goal.

Then the Chiefs went three-and-out twice after the Kelce score, and they called 12 straight passes to end this game on offense. Lots of mistakes in there with the false start to begin a drive, a low snap on a third down, and another third-down sack. What happened to the scrambling Mahomes was doing in September? They needed that these last two games and he’s just not doing it for some reason.

Can’t keep “saving it for the playoffs” when it doesn’t look like there will be a playoffs if you keep losing these games. Again, the Chiefs gave up a 3rd-and-15 on the game-winning drive. That’s the fourth time this year the defense gave up a 3rd-and-10 conversion in the fourth quarter of a one-score game. They never did it more than three times in any season in 2018-24 (none in 2024).

It’s the first time the Chiefs have lost five-straight one-score games in the Mahomes era. There was always going to be some regression there after a record 17-0 streak before this year, but god damn, someone step up and make a play whether it’s on offense, defense, or special teams. It just seems like no one on this team wants to do it this year and that’s why they keep losing these games to teams who simply want it more and outplay them.

I don’t know how you fix this or if you can at this point. Might just be a lost year.

Seahawks at Rams: Played Again, Sam

No player disappointed more on Sunday than Seattle’s Sam Darnold, who was having such a great year. He was No. 1 in QBR, the Seahawks were killing teams, and he was almost perfect in the first half of these last few games. But man are the Rams his kryptonite, and if you’re a Seattle fan, you’re just worried if anything dressed as a “big game” is a signal for him to shit the bed.

He already coughed up a fumble to lose to the 49ers in Week 1, then marred his epic shootout performance against Baker and the Bucs with a late pick on a deflected pass. In this game, he was facing the pass rush that got him 9 times in January’s playoff loss with Minnesota.

But this time around, it was on Darnold. He threw 4 picks, two of which basically set up the Rams on short fields for touchdowns on a day where Matthew Stafford was nothing special at all. Seattle’s defense played hard, and it wasn’t like Darnold was under a heavy siege by the blitz all day, or if he had to keep trading touchdowns with Stafford. It just wasn’t that kind of game at all.

Even with all the mistakes, the Seahawks got the ball back late in a 21-19 game with a chance to go win it from the 1-yard line. Darnold did not mange the clock well, and if he was a little better, he should have been able to get a field goal attempt shorter than 61 yards. The kick by Jason Myers was nowhere close, and that’s ultimately how Seattle lost this first matchup with the Rams.

The Rams lead the NFC West now and have over 70% chance to win it. Darnold lost the QBR lead too, dropping to fourth. It’s a tough day when you feel like it’s been proven he’s just not a quarterback you can trust in these big games.

This win will give the Rams a lot of hype and praise this week as the team to beat, but we saw how good that did for the Packers at beating Pittsburgh or the Bills after beating the Chiefs. Have to keep stacking wins, and the Rams could have very well lost this game if Darnold wasn’t so brutal.

Lions at Eagles: Suddenly the Defense Is Unstoppable

I felt like I was watching the 10-7 game from Monday night again with the way the Eagles and Lions played this game. I thought Detroit would embrace the opportunity on the road against a contender like it did in Baltimore earlier this year, but I guess Jared Goff isn’t beating the allegations about being an indoor merchant. He was horrible in this game, posting the worst completion percentage of his career.

Guess calling plays against the Eagles is a lot tougher than Washington for Dan Campbell, who saw his offense turn it over on downs five times in a 6-drive span in the middle of the game.

That had to be disappointing for a shorthanded defense that did pretty well in keeping the Eagles down offensively again. But with the defense playing so elite again for the Eagles, it might not matter in the NFC. They can still win it all if they get the No. 1 seed. Much like Seattle, it’s a sobering loss for the Lions with Goff as they are in Year 5 of the Goff-Campbell experiment and running out of time to turn it into a Super Bowl.

If the playoffs started today, the Lions (6-4) would be out as the No. 8 seed.

Buccaneers at Bills: Josh Allen’s Wild Day

I think Josh Allen can dial back the awful two picks he had early in this game, but this is more or less what I think they need from him the rest of the season to get back on track. The Chiefs are struggling, might not even make the playoffs, and the Bills are looking at a wild card at best despite this beautiful schedule that gifted them another home game against a contender like the Bucs.

But the Bills stepped up after a lot of lead changes in this game and put away the Bucs in the fourth quarter. A facemask penalty on a Shakir tackle on third down was huge, leading to Allen’s sixth touchdown of the day.

But I think this is what the Bills need from Allen. Turnovers be damned, just go back to running the offense through him and let him sling it and run around. It helped that the matchup really dictated it as the Bucs are hard for James Cook to run against, but this was  a promising type of win for the Bills.

With the Rams up next, Tampa is spiraling a bit here without its full weapons and shaky secondary.

Bengals at Steelers: Unc Bowl II Ends on a Sad Note

The Unc Bowl II started strong with Joe Flacco and Aaron Rodgers throwing touchdowns, but it quickly devolved into a defensive slugfest with a Mason Rudolph second half after Rodgers injured his wrist. It could be pretty serious too.

Pittsburgh’s defense again made the big splash plays with Kyle Dugger taking back a Flacco pass for a huge pick-six, then a Noah Fant catch led to a fumble return touchdown as the Steelers blew this one wide open in an easy win.

But all eyes on Rodgers’ wrist and the news there. This game was also a sobering experience as it’s likely the last time I ever get to watch a live NFL game where both starting quarterbacks are older than I am.

Chargers at Jaguars: Pure Domination

I learned my lesson the hard way again. You just can’t trust the Chargers against the Jaguars as that’s a third embarrassing loss in the Justin Herbert vs. Trevor Lawrence era. Lawrence was nothing special here, but at least he was part of the game. Herbert threw for 81 yards and left in the fourth quarter with the score out of hand.

Very lifeless game by the Chargers, who are lucky the Chiefs lost again.

Panthers at Falcons: The Bryce Young Show

Now where has this Bryce Young been? He has one game all year with 200 passing yards, then he throws for 448 yards in maybe the best game of his NFL career against an Atlanta pass defense that has been getting a lot of praise for its sacks and keeping the yardage down this year. Make it make sense as Young even did this after getting injured early in the game.

He still led a 14-point comeback while Michael Penix Jr. (DOOM) left the game injured after a great start. Kirk Cousins at least got a game-tying field goal drive to force overtime, but he couldn’t move the offense once he got there. The Panthers were able to get the game-winning field goal and are 6-5 and very much alive for the NFC South with Tampa’s slide.

Falconing at a high degree here.

Ravens at Browns: That’s Why Sander Was a 5th-Round Pick and QB3

It’s funny how you can look at a list of inactives and think Justice Hill being out isn’t a huge deal for Baltimore. But it really was. Hill is a good receiving back, and his presence was missed when backup Keaton Mitchell had a pass go off his hands and into the Browns for a pick-six. Lamar Jackson also had another pass tipped at the line that was picked, he didn’t throw a touchdown to end his 30-game streak, and he took 4 sacks by Myles Garrett alone as Cleveland pushed for an upset bid.

But the Browns didn’t get it because Dillon Gabriel was knocked out for a concussion, and rookie Shedeur Sanders showed he’s not ready and why he slid in the draft with a pretty horrible performance, going 4-of-16 and getting sacked a few times with a bad pick.

But the Ravens still needed a very cool Mark Andrews trick play on the Tush Push to score a 35-yard touchdown run to get the game-winning drive in the books before Sanders’ failed answer drive.

I don’t think Sanders is the solution to Cleveland’s many woes.

49ers at Cardinals: Jacoby’s Record-Setting Day in Defeat

What the fvck are the Cardinals even doing these days? They went from losing very close games on the final play every week to getting blown out before halftime but not before Jacoby Brissett piles up huge passing numbers in a multi-score loss.

The 49ers feasted on short fields and big plays in Brock Purdy’s return game, but the weird story was Brissett tying the NFL record with 47 pass completions on 57 attempts for 452 yards. He also managed to not take a single sack. You’ll see people say he broke the record for completions in a game, which is true for the regular season. But Ben Roethlisberger completed 47 passes in a 2020 playoff loss to the Browns, so he actually tied the record that’s been done before.

It’s amusing that this is done without Kyler Murray or Marvin Harrison Jr. active because of injuries, but it’s not like it’s helping Arizona win anything.

Bears at Vikings: Ben Johnson and Kevin O’Connell Split Close Series

If I looked at the best coaching records among actives in 4QC/GWD opportunities, Ben Johnson (5-2) and Kevin O’Connell (17-16) are near the top. KOC’s Vikings got the best of Johnson’s Bears in his debut in Week 1, and it looked like it might happen again after J.J. McCarthy shook off a pretty horrible 57 minutes before leading a nice go-ahead touchdown drive.

But damn that new kickoff rule. The Bears pulled off a 56-yard kick return, and just like that in a 17-16 game, they were at the Minnesota 40. Three fairly conservative runs later, the Bears were able to kick a 48-yard field goal to win the game, which Cairo Santos did for them to get to 7-3.

Tough way to lose for the Vikings. I guess McCarthy missed that LOAT course at Michigan on how to will your opponent to miss the clutch field goal. Or they just don’t offer that in 2025 like they used to.

Packers at Giants: Winston Special

I had to wait until the final 40 seconds before the J&J Pick Parade (J.J. McCarthy and Jameis Winston to both throw interceptions) hit this Sunday. Winston almost had another upset in his first start for the Giants as the Packers have just struggled all year despite large spreads. Jordan Love was out of the lineup momentarily in this one for an injury but returned and did some positive things, including a game-winning drive without Josh Jacobs.

Then the defense finally put it away with a pick of Winston with 36 seconds left. Since the Giants, in their first game with interim coach Mike Kafka, had all three timeouts, they actually generated another drive with just 10 seconds left. That too ended with a Winston turnover on a Micah Parsons strip-sack, fittingly.

Big save by the Packers, who lost to Tommy DeVito and the Giants two years ago. Not happening to Jameis this year.

Texans at Titans: Some Modest Improvement

Maybe my best pick this week was for the Titans (+5.5) to cover and still lose to Houston. It was a 6-0 game going into the fourth quarter the last time they met before short fields helped Houston blow it open 26-0. Throw in a short week, interim coach, and you’d hope Tennessee would clean some things up and play better.

That happened, and props to Cam Ward for leading a 95-yard game-tying touchdown drive late. But he learned the hard way about the help you get from the new kickoff rules (starting at your 35 from a touchback) and being let down by your defense, which let Davis Mills convert a 3rd-and-16 to Nico Collins to eventually get a 35-yard field goal with no time left in a 16-13 final.

Commanders vs. Dolphins: Thank You, Mike McDaniel

The NFL went to Madrid, Spain and gave the audience three goal-line stands, and I especially liked the one where the Commanders ran the ball with three different backs on three plays in a row and none could score before Marcus Mariota missed the fourth-down throw.

But I want to thank Mike McDaniel for I believe becoming the first coach in this new overtime system to win the coin toss and elect to go on defense first. I think that’s the ideal strategy, and it’s even stronger in a 13-13 game where you’re facing Marcus Mariota. You’re not afraid of him leading a long touchdown drive.

Sure enough, he was picked on the first play and that set up the Dolphins for an easy game-winning drive that was just 3 handoffs for 22 yards before a 29-yard field goal to win in 16-13.

Next week: Thursday night isn’t bad (Bills-Texans) if we get C.J. Stroud (concussion) back for it. On Sunday, the Colts’ No. 1 offense and Lou Anarumo-led offense can drop the Chiefs to 5-6 and possibly a deathblow to their playoff chances this year in a big one. Doesn’t sound promising for Aaron Rodgers to face the Bears one more time in Chicago in a game both teams need. Bucs at Rams isn’t bad for SNF but McVay usually does well against that team. Monday night is Carolina at 49ers, a game that is surprisingly not a joke on paper but not overly exciting either.

2025 NFL Stat Oddity: Week 10

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

Week 10 in the NFL started with one of the worst games you’ll ever see in this league between the Broncos and Raiders. Sunday night ended with one of the worst games I’ve ever seen Aaron Rodgers play. Who knows what Monday night holds, but hopefully it’ll be better than a Sunday where the rise to power of Adolf Hitler and Donald Trump were both referenced during live NFL broadcasts. How fitting.

In all, we had eight games with a comeback opportunity, which is the most in the last four weeks but still not the 9+ we had every week in Weeks 1-6. Maybe Monday gets us there though I’m still going with the Eagles to win that one.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Colts vs. Falcons: Game of the Week

This might be the shortest edition of Stat Oddity I’ve ever written for a regular-season slate (2,800 words), but that’s because I didn’t sleep well Saturday night as I actually set my alarm to get up and watch this entire game. It’s the only international game I’ll be doing that for this year, and it was 100% worth it.

I thought both offenses were great early on, then once Daniel Jones threw that pick before halftime and both teams mismanaged the shit out of that clock, the game took a real turn. The pass pressure was dialed up on Jones, he’s making mistakes more akin to how we knew him with the Giants. But the Colts still have those great weapons like Alec Pierce and Tyler Warren, and of course Jonathan Taylor was a badass on Sunday. The 83-yard touchdown run was crazy, bad tackling, speed, the whole 9 yards.

But the Falcons certainly had their shot to win after taking a 25-22 lead on a great drive where their run game looked dominant. They had Jones in a 3rd-and-21 but still managed to let him scramble for 19 yards. With the Colts out of timeouts at 1:26, that snap needed to be the one that set up the Falcons to win. Instead, it led to 4th-and-2, and Warren came down with the risky throw to convert. The Colts eventually settled for a field goal and overtime after another grounding penalty on Penix.

In overtime, I feel like you want to go second now with these new rules. Know exactly what you need and get to play with all four downs to get it. Hopefully some decent time too so you don’t need to rush much. I think it’s also better to go second if you’re not the better offense as you might need that extra down.

Alas, the Falcons won the toss and wanted the ball first. After being gifted one first down on a poor holding penalty on the defense, they didn’t get another and punted. Ho-hum. The Colts didn’t have far to go for the winning field goal, but with that kicker, you’re much better off just going for the touchdown. Taylor provided that from 8 yards out and the game was over with him hitting 286 yards from scrimmage and 3 more touchdowns.

It’s not like Jones didn’t help earn the win, but this was probably the day where Taylor overtook him for the Colts’ MVP candidate. That was big time overseas and the Falcons are not a bad defense.

The Colts had a bye week before their showdown in Kansas City in Week 12, and they need it to fix up some things with their pass pro as Jones’ great sack rate is in the toilet after these last two games.

Meanwhile, I’d say it’s hard to believe the Falcons are 3-6 and haven’t won since the Buffalo win. But is it that hard to believe? These are the Falcons. They have their own brand of choking that only the Chargers can beat. They were 0-8 on 3rd down and 3-29 on their last three games. That’s inexcusable with these skill players.

But that’s Falconing. Still, the Colts outgained them 519-290 in yards, so the right team won in the end. Great game to watch from start to finish.

Bills at Dolphins: Super Bowl Hangover in Week 10?

I’m so used to Buffalo beating Miami that it’s still hard to believe this one happened the way it did. Sure, the Bills had another turnover regression moment with 3 giveaways, all in Miami territory, but it’s not like Tua Tagovailoa didn’t throw 2 picks too. He just didn’t have any sacks and the run game (197 yards) shredded Buffalo.

This is why you don’t give too much credit to Buffalo for beating Kansas City in the regular season. You have to do it in the playoffs, and the Bills sure looked like a team who was hearing everyone kiss their ass all week and they never had any intensity to step up for this game too. The Dolphins led 16-0 early and Buffalo never really threatened save for that first touchdown drive. But then they failed on the 2-point conversion (0/4 this year), so it was still a 10-point game before Miami added onto the lead.

I’ve been saying since September the Bills just don’t look right this year despite the No. 1 seed talk because of such a favorable schedule. Well, losing at home to the Patriots and losing on the road to Atlanta (hasn’t won since) and now Miami (poor team) was part of that easy schedule, and they’re 0-3 in those games. They may have even lost to Miami at home if not for that roughing the punter penalty in the 4th quarter of a tied game.

The Bills have a lot of issues, and I’ve been up too long this day to write about them all and how they relate to Josh Allen and his share of blame. That can wait for Wednesday’s QB rankings.

But the Bills are definitely struggling right now, and they’ll get a somewhat competent Tampa team next week to try to sort this out against.

Steelers at Chargers: Little Fight

You know it’s a rough night for the Steelers when Mike Tomlin’s defense had a more respectable outing than his offense and even his special teams. Chris Boswell missed a 45-yard field goal and they had another embarrassing muffed return that was fumbled to the Chargers.

But this was Aaron Rodgers’ first really bad game with the Steelers. In fact, it was one of the worst games of his career as only a garbage time touchdown drive saved some of the numbers from being in the bottom 3 of his long career for one game. Just never looked comfortable all night, missed some open receivers on big plays, ran backwards into the end zone for a safety early, and just looked pretty off. It happens, but that’s the first time he really shit the bed in a Steeler uniform.

But the defense did a respectable job against Justin Herbert and his receivers. Would have been even better if they could catch the interceptions thrown to them.

The Ravens are right on the Steelers’ heels now, so it’s only going to get tougher and the stakes higher. I don’t think the Steelers are a good team right now since they’re pretty incapable of playing complementary football. If they can ever show up on both sides of the ball for the same game, then they may have something in a goofy AFC this year where the Patriots, Colts, and Broncos are all 8-2.

But this team is flawed, and the lack of a good wide receiver besides D.K. Metcalf, who hasn’t even been that great, is a huge misunderstanding of what Rodgers is as a quarterback. That was always the concern, and that’s why this offense still has no real identity after 9 games.

Rams at 49ers: NFC West Juggernaut No. 1

The NFC West teams were all in battle against each other in the same window, and both games ended up being bloodbaths. The Rams jumped out 21-0 on the 49ers, which is usually not how Sean McVay vs. Kyle Shanahan goes. It’s also unheard of for the 49ers to mount a huge comeback win in these spots, so I’m surprised they even got it to 28-20 at one point early in the fourth quarter.

But the defense, missing studs like Nick Bosa and Fred Warner, never had an answer for Matthew Stafford, who remains red hot with his third-straight game of 4 touchdown passes and no picks.

Mac Jones quietly had a solid game too, but it never really mattered because of the way the Rams got off to that fast start.

Cardinals at Seahawks: NFC West Juggernaut No. 2

The other NFC West battle was over even earlier. The Seahawks were up 28-0 not even a full minute into the second quarter with DeMarcus Lawrence returning two fumbles from Jacoby Brissett for touchdowns. The Arizona offense was sitting on negative net points before finishing the game with net 8 points in garbage time.

Apparently, the 2025 Seahawks turned into the 2007 Patriots (Games 1-10 Version) during their bye week. I’m sure playing the Commanders and Cardinals has a lot to do with it, but Seattle looks pretty legit to me. Those games with the Rams, starting next week, should be special.

Lions at Commanders: Dan Campbell Takes Over

Well, I think playing a defeated Washington team that didn’t have Jayden Daniels and a team the Lions were looking for some playoff revenge for played huge factors in this 44-22 rout that helped Dan Campbell move to 13 straight wins and covers following a loss since 2022.

But who knew the best person to replace offensive coordinator Ben Johnson might be offensive coordinator Dan Campbell? He took over play-calling duties for this one and the Lions responded with 44 points on 8 drives (no punts) before running out the clock. Close to perfect with 546 yards to back it up.

Again, I think the state of the opponent mattered a lot. But Detroit could be peaking going into Philadelphia next week, a huge NFC showdown we never got to see last season.

Patriots at Buccaneers: TreVeyon and the Hendersons

The Patriots may have had about three good rushes all game long in Tampa, but two of them basically powered their only points of the second half after rookie TreVeyon Henderson scored on touchdown runs of 55 and 69 yards in a 28-23 win.

It took a Rhamondre Stevenson injury to finally see the speed we saw a taste of in the preseason from Henderson, but this wasn’t the only rookie who had a breakout game. Kyle Williams scored on a 72-yard touchdown catch that was mostly YAC to showcase his speed, so the Patriots are discovering weapons as the season goes on.

When I look at the Buccaneers, I can acknowledge that Emeka Egbuka is one of the most polished rookie wideouts ever. A gifted player with natural ability and real WR1 potential for years to come. But I also think the offense is quite obviously not the same when you don’t have Bucky Irving, Mike Evans, and Chris Godwin out there.

Baker Mayfield has also all but given up on scrambling since the 3rd-and-14 run against the 49ers, so I’m not sure what that’s all about. Hiding an injury? The fact is the Bucs were held to 16 points on 10 drives at home before their last touchdown had a strong odor of garbage time following Henderson’s huge run, which he didn’t have to necessarily score given the clock situation. But I can’t fault him for that one.

Henderson scored as many 55-yard touchdown runs in one half as the Patriots had (2) in every Tom Brady start in 2001-19 combined. That’s how special those plays are, and they certainly helped on a day where Drake Maye wasn’t his best, completing 16/31 passes with a red-zone pick that he forced in a spot where he actually would have been better off taking a sack (that’s ironic) in a 21-16 game late.

That gave Baker a chance to take the lead, something he’s done so well this year. But the pressure got to him on 4th down and the Bucs turned it over on downs before Henderson’s last big run.

Ravens at Vikings: McCarthyism May Not Be Sweeping the League in 2025

Yeah, we’ll keep saying J.J. McCarthy is young and needs a lot of developing. He certainly showed it in this game as he got worse the longer it went on. Meanwhile, the Ravens had a shaky start with a lot of field goals before finally finding the end zone after the Vikings barely coughed up a fumble on a kick return.

It took a lot for Lamar Jackson to keep his streak alive of 30 games with a touchdown pass, but he got there. Then the Vikings made it a one-score game anyway before the defense stopped McCarthy late.

Three straight wins for the Ravens (4-5) and they’re building confidence.

Jaguars at Texans: Game Over, Man

Yeah, I’m out on the Jaguars (5-4) as a playoff team this year. Blowing a 19-point lead in the fourth quarter to Davis Mills is exactly the kind of game that could trigger a losing streak and implosion to a season.

It’s not like the Jaguars were ever that far better than Houston in this game. They just feasted on field position early, then the defense took care of Trevor Lawrence late, including an unbelievable pick six to even cover the spread in the end.

Good to see a great defensive unit earn a win here as the Texans have been playing hard for DeMeco Ryans on that side of the ball. Just didn’t expect Mr. Long Neck to be the one to lead one of the greatest comebacks in franchise history while C.J. Stroud nursed a concussion.

Saints at Panthers: Attaboy for Tyler Shough

I knew you couldn’t trust the Panthers (-5.5) with a big spread but I didn’t think they’d lose this convincingly. The Saints took the lead with 9:21 left in the second quarter and never looked back in a 17-7 win. They shut down Rico Dowdle (18 carries for 53 yards), and as expected, Bryce Young wasn’t able to build a passing game.

Meanwhile, rookie Tyler Shough shined in his first NFL win with 282 yards and 2 touchdowns. Funny how he was more impressive in this one game than Cam Ward’s been all year as the No. 1 pick. I know, Ward will get the “bad coaching” pass for 2025, which is valid to a point. But with the way Shough and Dart have played this year without the greatest of situations around them, it makes you wonder about that draft class, especially with the Shedeur Sanders slide too.

Giants at Bears: Winning the Games Eberflus Didn’t

Despite the 6-3 record, I don’t think the Bears are a serious contender and still wouldn’t trust them to make the playoffs. But this year is about Caleb Williams getting better and Ben Johnson winning the games Matt Eberflus almost always lost.

On that front, this year has been a success after the Bears rallied from 10 down in the fourth quarter with a 24-20 win after Williams was excellent on two quick touchdown drives. Poor Russell Wilson took another failed comeback on his record after coming off the bench for a concussed Jaxson Dart, which was always the concern with his playing style. Dart is a special player when he’s healthy but who knows how long that will last.

At this point, I don’t see any value in bringing Brian Daboll back next year. He loses way too many games like this with the defense blowing the lead and the offense unable to recover.

Browns at Jets: Special Special Teams

If you had to script how Justin Fields can win a 27-20 game against a stingy defense, this would certainly do the trick:

  • Jets had two special teams touchdowns in the first quarter
  • Fields had 54 passing yards with 42 coming on a game-winning screen pass touchdown to Breece Hall, who showed off after a week the team traded its two best defenders and easily could have dealt him too
  • Dillon Gabriel was sacked 6 times

Leave it to the Browns to lose a game to a team like this in a game script like that.

Next week: Some of these games will be flat out duds, but with this much great stuff on the schedule, it has to be the best Sunday of the season.

  • Bucs at Bills
  • Chargers at Jags
  • Bengals at Steelers (Unc Bowl II)
  • Seahawks at Rams (NFC Game of the Year?)
  • Chiefs at Broncos (AFC West Game of the Year?)
  • Lions at Eagles (SNF)

2025 NFL Stat Oddity: Week 9

~ Scott ~ 1 Comment

We’re into November now with this NFL season, and it didn’t take long for nutty stuff to happen. After last week’s historic blowout slate, Week 9 saw the teams with the best records (Packers and Colts) both lose, including the biggest upset of the season with the Panthers (+13.5) in Green Bay.

We also saw insane finishes in the NFC North, the longest field goal ever, some Atlanta DOOM, and a Chiefs-Bills game that felt different than the nine that came before it.

In all, there were seven games with a comeback opportunity with MNF pending. That’s certainly up from the 9 combined in the previous two weeks, but it’s still a below-average number as the prime-time games were routs. I think Cowboys vs. Cardinals will deliver the points though.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Chiefs at Bills: Game of the Week

One thing I never liked to buy into was that the Chiefs hide stuff in the regular season against Buffalo so they can do it in the playoffs to beat them. But I was sold last year after the night-and-day differences between their November loss and the AFC Championship Game that this is the case.

On Sunday, it sure looked like the case again as the Chiefs didn’t seem to have a real game plan for offense (or defense). Patrick Mahomes only had 10 pass attempts almost before halftime, though they still weren’t really testing that run defense without Ed Oliver with Kareem Hunt and company. He wasn’t even throwing to Kelce as it was just the Rashee Rice Show.

Then Mahomes hits a deep ball to Hollywood Brown where I’m not sure how he doesn’t score, and the Chiefs can’t punch it in from the 1-yard line before halftime. That sequence hurt. Then the rest of the game devolved into Mahomes trying to survive the pass rush and throwing miracles down the field, hitting some like the 4th-and-17 conversion to Rice to start the fourth quarter.

By the way, the Chiefs didn’t have either starting tackle for the 4th-and-17, and that’s the first conversion on 4th-and-17 by a team trailing by one or two scores with more than half of the fourth quarter left since 1978. That made it a game again at 28-21.

But even when the offense got the ball back, two straight plays went nowhere to rookie back Brashard Smith, including a screen that went off a lineman’s head. On 3rd-and-11 with Joey Bosa bearing down on Mahomes, he just threw one up for Xavier Worthy that was picked, the equivalent of a 44-yard punt with 4:18 left.

The Bills gained two first downs, but Matt Prater’s 52-yard field goal hit the upright, leaving Mahomes 0:22 for a miracle. They got some shots from the Bufalo 40 at the Hail Mary, but Mahomes couldn’t set his feet on the last throw and it came up harmlessly short to end the game, dropping the Chiefs to 5-4 and 0-4 in close games this season.

You can apply the usual caveat that Buffalo has won in the regular season against the Chiefs five times in a row now while still going 0-4 in the playoffs against them. They have to show they can do it in January as you won’t see another game where Mahomes completes under 50% of his passes, a first in his career after 141 games of 50% or higher, an NFL record to start a career.

But I have a lot of problems with just ignoring this for Buffalo and Kansas City. There may not be a playoff rematch as I alluded to this week. These teams may not win their divisions, so it could be hard to meet up again if they’re both wild cards.

Beyond that, this felt different from the previous 9 meetings of Allen vs. Mahomes.

The Bills bullied the Chiefs on both sides of the ball. Cook rushed for 114 yards to end Kansas City’s streak of not allowing a 100-yard rusher. Allen got the sneak corrected to score twice against the Chiefs. He used his tight ends as well as ever with wide-open plays all day (101 yards for Kincaid).

On defense, the Bills hit Mahomes 15 times (possibly a career high depending on the source of hits), sacked him 3 times, and made him uncomfortable all game long. Those new additions really paid off as Joey Bosa was a nightmare for the backup tackles, and rookie corner Maxwell Hairston showed he has the speed to stay up with Worthy no problem. That stuff matters.

Even with the numbers the Chiefs have been posting on offense the last month, I felt like they weren’t at all sorted out on how they’re going to use these receivers together. Worthy’s production has gone down since Rice returned, they don’t even use Tyquan Thornton anymore after he played so well as a deep threat, and Hollywood Brown is seemingly always good for a lack of concentration drop (like to start this game) or bad YAC play where he doesn’t score (like before halftime).

I don’t think they have it figured out yet, and I don’t think “saving it for the playoffs” is something you can afford to do when you’re 5-3 and now 5-4. Winning the division is getting very close to having to run the table, and this team just may not be that good to do so this year. No team in the NFL might be able to rip off 8 in a row in 2025 if you just look around the league.

So, I don’t think it’s a loss you brush off lightly and hope for the rematch to go better, because at this point, there may never be a rematch. The Chiefs got some work to do on this bye week as the Broncos and Colts are up next.

Colts at Steelers: It’s the Great Pumpkin, Daniel Jones

I knew this was coming, which is why I picked the Steelers to win. But six turnovers with 5 by Indiana Jones? I didn’t see that coming. Maybe half that amount, but the Steelers went wild with forcing takeaways as they made the Colts fight for everything, including the long opening drive touchdown that made it look like it might be a long day again.

But T.J. Watt forced a strip-sack fumble, they held Jonathan Taylor to 45 yards, they got good pressure that led to a tipped ball and interception, and they got another strip-sack later in the game as well as a pick. Just great stuff from the defense all day while the offense was very conservative with quick throws as they just took advantage of the field position from the turnovers.

When the Colts lost to the Rams, I felt very encouraged by the team as it felt like Adonai Mitchell cost them two touchdowns. But after Sunday, I feel very discouraged about the Colts and Jones going forward if they’re going to play like this in Pittsburgh against a defense that’s been down bad for most of the year. I could see the Chiefs and Bills roughing this team up too in January (or Week 12 in Indy’s case).

Sunday doesn’t erase what the Colts did for 8 weeks, but it’s still a sobering loss and a huge win for the Steelers, who will try to rattle Justin Herbert without Joe Alt next.

Bears at Bengals: Fire the Whole Staff into the Sun

It cracks me up that the Bengals thought firing Lou Anarumo and drafting Shemar Stewart was going to fix this defense. They’re worse than ever, and Sunday may have been their masterpiece.

We talked about improbable comebacks in the last 5:00, and the Bengals had one here ready to go. Joe Flacco even threw an interception with 2:42 left, trailing 41-27, and still found a way to take a 42-41 lead with 0:54 left. Incredible.

The Bengals used their 3 timeouts to force a quick 3-and-out by the Bears. With 2:15 left and solid field position, Flacco quickly led a 55-yard touchdown drive in 32 seconds. The Bengals went for 2 and got it. They recovered an onside kick, which is so hard to do, and 49 seconds later it was another touchdown pass from Flacco, who threw for 470 yards and 4 touchdowns.

But since the Bengals went for 2 earlier, they led 42-41 now, which triggers four-down aggressive football from the Bears. That’s why I’m not a big fan of the going for 2 down 14 strategy. You are more likely to end up in these situations where the other team is down 1 and can pursue the win with no limitations on downs. Or you could end up down 8 after failing on the early 2PC, and now you need a 2PC just to tie or you’ll probably lose. It’s even less enticing in this era where setting up a field goal is so much easier with new kickoff rules and kicker range.

But the Bears were taking their sweet old time until Caleb Williams found Colston Loveland over the middle, and after some horrific tackling, he broke free for a 58-yard touchdown to stun the Bengals with a 47-42 lead. The kind of play that should get someone fired in Cincinnati.

The Bengals got a shot at a Hail Mary, but Flacco’s pass came up woefully short of the end zone to end it, giving him another interception. But he played well as did the offense. The defense is just a bunch of bullshit and Zac Taylor and his staff have no answers for anything.

Broncos at Texans: Another Comeback for Denver

The better team won in the end as the Texans were held to 2.8 yards per carry and 3/17 on third down. They also gave up touchdown passes of 27 and 30 yards on an otherwise poor day throwing from Bo Nix.

 But it would have been nice if C.J. Stroud didn’t leave the game after a concussion on a late slide in the second quarter, leading to Davis “Long Neck” Mills throwing 30 passes.

Houston tried to power through on 5 field goals, but that 15-7 lead in the fourth quarter didn’t hold up to these Broncos, who pulled off another comeback. Both teams had multiple chances with the ball in a 15-15 game, but Mills had a quick three-and-out late  that took a total of 24 seconds off the clock, including the punt. It reminded me of how Houston beat Buffalo last year when Josh Allen had 3 quick incompletions and the punt set up Houston in easy position to win the game.

This time, Nix used his legs for a huge 25-yard scramble that set up Wil Lutz for a 34-yard walk-off field goal to get the 18-15 win.  You might as well say there’s a new AFC South champ this year, and with the way Denver keeps winning games like this, we might see a new AFC West champ for the first time since 2015 too.

Vikings at Lions: McCarthy Not Losing in Michigan

I recall how poorly 7-of-8 quarters went for J.J. McCarthy earlier this year, and I’ve seen some of the shine coming off this Brian Flores defense. So, I wasn’t expecting much from the Vikings in Detroit, but McCarthy pulled it out in a 27-24 upset, one of the biggest upsets of the year.

I called it that he’d throw a touchdown to Justin Jefferson, his first since Week 1, which was also from McCarthy. But then the pseudo-rookie threw another to T.J. Hockenson, he rushed for another later, and he put the game away with a great 3rd-down conversion pass in a 27-24 game.

McCarthy had plenty of help from the D/ST in this one, but he no doubt played well too. A huge day for him and the Vikings.

Panthers at Packers: Underdog Strategy Works Out

I picked the Packers to reach the Super Bowl, and I don’t know whether to like it or hate the pick with each passing week. They can look so good in beating the Lions and Steelers, then so bad in losing to the Browns and Panthers with Jordan Love throwing an inexplicable incompletion in both losses.

In this one, Carolina played the big underdog strategy well with a strong running game from Rico Dowdle, limited mistakes from Bryce Young, and the defense was timely on when it stopped the Packers from finding the end zone.

Each team only had 7 possessions, and it’s almost impossible to win a game like that if you’re Green Bay and you waste four of them with a fumble, missed field goal, pick, and a turnover on downs that should have been a 2nd pick. Let’s talk about that play.

First, why? Why is Green Bay even going for a 4th-and-8 at the Carolina 13 in a 13-6 game with 11:00 left? At best you time the game with plenty of time left. Second best,  you convert for the first down and the drive continues, meaning it could still end in a field goal or no points. But the worst-case scenario is you don’t get it, and really that should have been picked as the touchback would have given the Panthers an extra 7 yards.

But I just don’t get the decision to go for it. I know they missed a 43-yard field goal in the third quarter, but do you expect a pro like Brandon McManus to miss a 31-yard field goal too? Just a horrible call. It’s almost like they saw the drive as 4-down territory, so even when Wilson was stuffed for a 5-yard loss on 3rd-and-3, they weren’t deterring from the plan and still went for it on 4th-and-8. Really dumb call.

The Packers were able to get the game-tying touchdown with Josh Jacobs on the next drive to tie the game at 13 with 2:32 left. But Bryce Young completed a couple of passes for 19 yards, Dowdle broke a 19-yard run, and the Panthers walked off the Packers with a 49-yard field goal in a 16-13 stunner.

The game was more offensive than the score suggests because of the drive count, but this is still a miserable loss for the Packers and right before their huge game with the Eagles. Maybe they overlooked Carolina after hearing all week how great they are after beating the Steelers. But you better show up every week in this league, a lost art.

Falcons at Patriots: Leaving Younghoe for This?

We haven’t seen Michael Penix Jr. in a close finish in so many weeks that I forgot what my DOOM nickname for him stood for. It’s Destiny of Ongoing Misfortune, and it’s on point after he already lost his third game in 12 career games after a kicker missed a clutch kick.

On this Sunday, the Falcons were the team down to New England, but instead of the Patriots taking a 24-7 lead into halftime if they got a field goal, Drake Maye took yet another sack, lost the ball, and that set up the Falcons for a 6-yard touchdown drive to make it 21-14 at the half. Huge swing there.

Atlanta’s defense continued to keep the team in the game in the second half as Maye took 6 sacks and threw a bad pick.

Penix got the ball back in a 24-17 game in the fourth quarter and threw another touchdown to Drake London with 4:40 left. It’s funny cause the touchdown came on 4th-and-goal at the 8. I was thinking you should probably kick the field goal, which you need eventually, as 4th-and-8 isn’t in your favor and you have enough time to get the ball back and drive for the go-ahead touchdown. They went for it and it worked out though in this new NFL.

But then the new kicker, John Parker Romo, was wide right on the extra point, keeping it a 24-23 New England lead. They got rid of Younghoe Koo for this? Unacceptable. But after the Patriots went 3-and-out, Penix delivered a 25-yard pass to London up to midfield. That was when things went haywire, as the second-down play allegedly was a matter of the Patriots simulating the snap for the Falcons, which is supposedly a penalty that wasn’t called, and it led to an intentional ground penalty by Penix that killed the drive and they punted in no man’s land on 4th-and-20 at their own 42.

You can see a Patriots player clapping in the deep middle of the field, which Penix points to after the play is over. I’m not sure if that’s really illegal, but the snap was early, and Penix needs to do a better job of gunning that at least by the feet of Bijan Robinson to avoid any grounding penalty.

Needing only one first down to end the game, Maye recovered and delivered a 17-yard pass on 3rd-and-5 to Hunter Henry to put the Falcons away. But what a bad time for the Falcons to miss an extra point and suffer a grounding penalty. Maye did some things very well early but was largely ineffective for the rest of the game.

But I guess getting bailed out by Atlanta mistakes is just something New England quarterbacks are used to doing.

Saints at Rams: No Help for Tyler Shough

If you’re a Saints fan, I think you’re encouraged by Tyler Shough’s first NFL start and discouraged by the team around him. The defense gave up 5 touchdowns on the first seven drives, and the running game for Shough produced one 29-yard run by Taysom Hill and a fumble lost by Alvin Kamara. No help.

The moment didn’t seem too big for Shough with only one turnover and one sack taken against a great pass rush. But Matthew Stafford shredded that secondary for another 4 touchdowns in an easy 34-10 win.

Jaguars at Raiders: Pete Carroll Never Learns

What a crazy game. It was almost scoreless at halftime before Brock Bowers reminded us why he’s the next big thing at tight end with the first of three touchdown catches on the day. Then Jacksonville kicker Cam Little made NFL history with a 68-yard field goal, smashing He Who Shall Not Be Named’s record of 66 yards.

The crazy thing is I watched Little kick a 70-yard field goal against the Steelers in the August preseason, but that doesn’t count as the official NFL record. So, it’s cool to see him get it for real, and it was a big 3 points in a back-and-forth game that went to overtime.

We also got to see the first game in NFL history where a team scored an overtime touchdown and the game didn’t immediately end due to the new rules. That also makes it the first game ever where both teams scored a touchdown in overtime.

The Raiders were right to go for the 2PC win as a tie does them no good in the standings. But throwing again without using Ashton Jeanty? I guess Pete Carroll never learns. The slant from the right was wide open too, but Geno Smith threw the other direction and it was batted down. I wonder if he threw right if it would have worked out for him.

Jaguars steal another one to move to 5-3 but I’m still not sold on this team.

49ers at Giants: San Francisco Escapes MetLife Intact

With all the injuries these teams have had, playing at MetLife Stadium has to be a daunting task for the road team given the venue’s reputation for altering careers. But it seems like the 49ers escaped unscathed, and they also got the 34-24 win, largely controlling the game for the last 50 minutes.

Still sold on Jaxson Dart, assuming he can stay healthy, to be a good one who elevates his teammates. But nothing he could do about the defense when it plays this poorly.

Chargers at Titans: Pyrrhic Victory

The Chargers got the 27-20 win in Tennessee but not the cover thanks to a couple of early return touchdowns by the Titans, including a pick-six thrown by Justin Herbert. That means Jim Harbaugh’s defense actually gave up net minus-1 points as Cam Ward had another rough day.

But it comes as a pyrrhic victory for the Chargers (6-3) after losing tackle Joe Alt again to an ankle injury that could require surgery. Herbert ended up taking six sacks in this game against an undermanned Tennessee defense.

The Steelers are up next too for the Chargers on SNF, so those turnovers and sacks could return as there’s no way Alt is playing next week.

Seahawks at Commanders: It’s All Over Now

We knew Seattle had the better team, but damn. This was over before halftime, a half that saw Sam Darnold throw 4 touchdowns and complete all 16 of his passes. I took a nap for the second half, and woke up to see a horrible elbow injury for my guy Jayden Daniels, which should end his season with the team at 3-6.

No point in risking it, but I’d have said the same thing about putting him back out there in a 31-point game in the fourth quarter. That’s four touchdowns against a great defense and a quarterback on fire. The game is decided. Protect your asset as no team has ever erased a deficit larger than 25 points in the fourth quarter. It wasn’t going to happen here, and now we’re stuck with Mariota again in a doomed season.

The only good news is it’s not Daniels’ throwing arm, so this will be a minor setback in his career. But I was wrong to think the Commanders would return to the playoffs this year. I’m glad I didn’t go all in and have them winning the NFC East and possibly going a step further to the Super Bowl. There were holes on defense they didn’t fix, and the injuries have piled up this year. That’s too bad.

But the Seahawks look excellent and could be a dark horse to go the distance.

Next week: The big one is obviously Monday night with Eagles at Packers. Fascinating game that’s totally unpredictable with the way those teams are playing, but I lean Philly on the strength of last year’s sweep and Tyler Kraft’s injury. But before we get there, we have a bad TNF game with Raiders vs. Broncos. Falcons at Colts in Germany could be good if the good Falcons show up. Ravens at Vikings might be good. Patriots at Bucs a highlight for 1 PM slate. Rams at 49ers is the 4:25 game to watch. Steelers-Chargers could be good on SNF. Not a bad schedule except for the start of the week, but even then, the Broncos can make any game a comeback opportunity.

2025 NFL Stat Oddity: Week 8

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

After watching the NFL turn tricks all day Sunday, I want to know where my treat is. Where’s a good, competitive game? Is it really going to come from Commanders at Chiefs on Monday night with the 12-point spread? It might have to as this Week 8 has had just 3 games with a comeback opportunity.

That’d be the fewest in any week since I’ve started doing this weekly (2011). That’s 15 seasons.

Granted, there were six teams on a bye but 13 games should be enough to get better numbers than this as it’s been blowout city with 11-of-12 games decided by double digits, and many were by three scores or more.

You know things are fvcked when Justin Fields leads the biggest comeback of the day. At least it was finished by Breece Hall, so that checks out for the brand. But yeah, two fourth-quarter lead changes is it, and the Packers still won by 10, and their “comeback” was on the first play of the quarter in the red zone.

If Chiefs-Commanders does give us four games with a comeback opportunity for the week, that would tie Week 9 in 2014 and a couple of weeks in 2021 for the fewest since 2011.

I got a late start to writing this as I had some work to take care of, but I’m pretty sure I can run through this thing in record time. Many teams didn’t give much of a shit about their effort on Sunday, so why should I pour over what they did here? I’d like to sleep in today.

A lot of this can get more detail in my QB rankings later this week, and I’m also doing an awards update (MVP) for Thursday.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Packers at Steelers: Game of the Weak Week

After a day of blowouts, I was expecting a tight, 23-20 kind of game that the Steelers would pull out. Maybe even an overtime game. But what a stunning performance from Jordan Love to go out there on Aaron Rodgers’ big night and steal the headlines and the game back from Pittsburgh after trailing 16-7 at halftime.

You know, the kind of comeback the Packers almost never made during Rodgers’ time in Green Bay. But it should be pointed out that the Pittsburgh defense never really had any edge on the Green Bay defense in this game. Yes, the run was getting stopped early with Josh Jacobs, but that dam broke a little later with the backup in there running the ball at will in the second half. But Jordan Love had a receiver drop a late-down pass to kill one drive, and his kicker missed two kicks that Chris Boswell wouldn’t have missed for Pittsburgh.

So, that 16-7 was always a bit of a mirage at the half. But what a job by Love to complete 20 passes in a row at one point, something Rodgers never even did with the Packers. Love finished with 360 yards and 3 touchdowns. This is the scary version of Green Bay we watched in Weeks 1-2 and haven’t really seen since. They got good sacks on Rodgers, who had been getting the ball away better this year. But not so much tonight as Parsons and company ate well.

The Pittsburgh defense just continues to be horrible and one of the biggest disappointments in the league. Also, this game really exposed the lack of wideouts available to Rodgers in this offense. He’s trying to use backs and tight ends like WRs, and that’s usually not a good thing for most quarterbacks, let alone one of the most wide receiver-centric passers in NFL history.

I swear that’s how you end up with Kenneth Gainwell, a running back, fumbling in the open field the way he did late in the game. That’s just not a play he’s used to making. So, I think the Steelers will make some move for a wideout before the trade deadline, but that’s not going to stop you from playing in 34-31 games.

The seeds were there Week 1 that this defense was going to be a huge problem when they made Justin Fields look good. At some point, Tomlin has to be viewed as the main problem by the mainstream media, and I swear a losing record is the only thing that will get people to turn on him.

With the Steelers’ upcoming schedule, 8-9 isn’t out of the question again. That was my original pick all spring long until I started buying into the fool’s gold of surrounding Rodgers with all of these vets. Turns out you have to actually have good schemes and be able to coach them to execute.

Missing that badly in Pittsburgh these days.

Cowboys at Broncos: Two Altitudes

I did think about the 42-17 final in Mile High in the second game of Dak Prescott’s second season (2017) this week. Probably should have mirrored that for this pick, but I gave Dallas a shot to cover the spread as Denver’s been starting games really slow and coming  back late.

However, that Dallas defense is a gift to opponents this year. Bo Nix and the running game chewed them up, and Dak had a weird game where he never completed a pass to Jake Ferguson at tight end, and the numbers for CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens look better than you’d expect against that secondary, which lost Patrick Surtian II to an injury even.

But just too much poor execution from Dallas all day, and it didn’t look aggressive enough on the road against a team that was nearly on a 70-point pace in 60 minutes if you go back to last week’s 33-point explosion in the fourth quarter.

Yes, the Broncos (6-2) are scary when they look like this, but you have to put everything into perspective. It was just a few weeks ago when they had to sack Justin Fields 9 times to seal a 13-11 win over the Jets overseas.

But Denver did a great job on this Sunday.

Jets at Bengals: Mike White Redux

Even with leads of 15 and 14 in the fourth quarter, the Bengals couldn’t close it out. That gave me some PTSD from the 2021 game, the Mike White game where he threw for 400 yards in a comeback win that Joe Burrow couldn’t close out. I’ll never get over that one as I lost about $11,000 in winning bets from that moneyline.

The 2025 Bengals may not get past this one as losing at home to the 0-7 Jets in this fashion is absurd. Giving up a comeback like this to Justin Fields? Are you shitting me? The quarterback who was 0-26 when his team allowed more than 20 points? 2-21 at 4QC opportunities? Granted, Breece Hall was actually the one who threw the game-winning touchdown on a ballsy, double-clutched decision to throw there.

But then the Bengals could have handed Aaron Glenn and Fields another loss and blown lead in this situation had they not run the ball on a 2nd-and-obvious-pass situation. That put Flacco in 3rd-and-long and pressed for time, and let’s not forget his receiver not bringing in the ball on first down to start that little series. Flacco couldn’t find anyone on the last two throws, and that was enough. The Jets finally got a win at 39-38.

Now, the Bengals (3-5) might be cooked instead of .500 again. What a league.  You kinda had to see this coming after the Woody Johnson comments about Fields earlier in the week, then the tragic news about former Jets center Nick Mangold (RIP) passing from kidney disease this weekend. Everything was pointing to statement win for the Jets, and sure enough, the Bengals helped them to one.

But that 2nd-and-10 run for a yard when you’re trying to go set up a game-winning field goal is exactly why Taylor has to go. Never mind they made Lou Anarumo the scapegoat for why their defense is garbage.

Tear it all down in Cincinnati.

Titans at Colts: Indiana Jones and the Scoring Boom

Even with game tape from Week 3 (though probably not a competent Tennessee coaching staff that can interpret it), and even with back-to-back punts in the second quarter, the Colts still efficiently dropped 38 points on few drives before calling the dogs off in the latest sweep of Tennessee.

Daniel Jones played very well again as did Jonathan Taylor showing off his speed on another 3-touchdown day. Colts-Chiefs can’t come here soon enough.

49ers at Texans: Mentee Over Mentor

The mentee (DeMeco Ryans) took care of the mentor (Kyle Shanahan) in this one as C.J. Stroud shook off a horrible Monday night game and ripped the 49ers a new one by halftime here. Think I only saw one pick that was a glaring mistake for Stroud as he was sharp.

The 49ers just weren’t very effective and did little outside of a George Kittle touchdown as promised on National Tight End’s Day, which didn’t really explode that much around the league.

But good win for Houston without Nico Collins.

Bears at Ravens: Season Saved

Only one team (1970 Bengals) has ever made the playoffs after starting 1-6, so the Ravens were in a real must-win situation without Lamar Jackson. Even though the Bears hogged the ball early, the Ravens held them to field goals. Then after an early punt, Tyler Huntley moved the offense efficiently and effectively. The Ravens scored on 6-of-7 drives at one point. A lot of field goals but the rookie kicker was good.

Then after Chicago cut the 10-point deficit into a 16-13 game in the fourth quarter, you could see the Ravens choking away another double-digit lead late. But that’s when Nate Wiggins intercepted Caleb Williams’ pass, setting up a 9-yard touchdown drive to blow the game back open and save the day.

Maybe save the season if Lamar can return this week. Guess we’ll have to see if he practices, and then see what they say about how he practiced exactly…

Bills at Panthers: Red Rifle Backfires

Oh, I’ll get to Josh Allen later this week after one of the most misleading stat lines of the season. But this was your typical get-right game for the Bills. That means multiple takeaways, forced or just backup quarterback screw-ups; it doesn’t matter. They used those plays and some great runs by James Cook to dominate this game in 40-9.

I’m glad I came to my senses late in the week and didn’t back Carolina ATS. Andy Dalton was a mess and the running game for Buffalo was much better than the Carolina backfield.

Browns at Patriots: Myles Garrett’s Historic Day Results in 32-13 Loss

Myles Garrett had 5 sacks and yet the Browns still lost 32-13. It wasn’t all offensive mistakes putting the defense in a bind again either. The Patriots had two long touchdown drives in the 3rd quarter after Garrett’s sacks kept holding Drake Maye to field goals early.

But in the end, New England blew past the Browns, and Stefon Diggs is finally on the board for a touchdown in 2025. This is probably going to be the best defense the Patriots face all year, and Maye has taken 9 sacks the last two weeks, so that is something to keep an eye on.

But this game is a great example of how defense is largely valued by unit play instead of any one individual. Garrett is officially the 20th player since 1982 to reach 5.0 sacks in a game. Those players now have a team record of 16-4, and the other three players lost by a combined 6 points in their games.

That means Garrett is the first player since 1982 to get 5.0 sacks and still lose the game by more than 3 points. Only the fourth to get 4.0 sacks and lose by more than 16 points. But when you agree to stay in Cleveland…

Buccaneers at Saints: Another Wasted Defensive Gem

Similar to how the Browns wasted Garrett’s effort vs. New England, the Saints’ offense wasted the performance of the whole defense in keeping Tampa in check.

I guess that Baker Mayfield MVP campaign went the way of Howard Dean, right? The Tampa defense won this game with a pick-six, 5 sacks, and 4 turnovers in total as the offense was pretty mid for the Bucs without Mike Evans, Bucky Irving, and Chris Godwin.

At one point, the Saints stopped the Bucs on 8 straight plays from the 1-yard line over two drives. Yes, I’m including the offsides penalty on first down that started things. Pretty crazy to watch that play out twice, though the Bucs did eventually score on the 9th play.

But just another bad day for the Saints, who benched Spencer Rattler for rookie Tyler Shough, who didn’t fare any better. Will that move be permanent next game? Probably with the way the NFL works. Guys like Rattler just don’t get a long leash.

Giants at Eagles: Skattebo Lived His Life Like a Candle in the Wind

I dunno, I guess I always thought Cam Skattebo’s first major NFL injury would be something… funny? He’d go to do a backflip celebration and land on a cameraman, or he’d headbutt a concrete wall. But a dislocated ankle was just sad to watch and you can see the impact it had on Jaxson Dart, who knows he has to get through the rest of his rookie year without a good defense, his best receiver, and now his best running back.

He also got hosed by the refs in this one as the Eagles got away with a very clear fumble on the Tush Push for a “forward progress stopped” bullshit call.

Given all the times we’ve seen the refs let them get forward progress for long after they deserved it, this call was just pure bullshit. Maybe the game plays a little differently if the Eagles don’t go up 14-7 two plays later.

But the Eagles did well without A.J. Brown. Running game was huge with 276 yards. Defense had 5 sacks. Most complete effort yet for the Eagles, and kinda what I had in mind when I picked them to cover the spread for the sake of they were “due” to win a game in blowout fashion this year.

It happened. And I’d rather not think about this game again. It signals the end of some fun times with New York’s rookie duo in the backfield. I know Thelma & Louise probably had a longer shelf life together than these two would with the way they play so recklessly, but it was really an innocent play that took Skattebo out. A shame.

Dolphins at Falcons: WTF?

Seriously, between losing 30-0 to the Panthers and now 34-10 at home to the Dolphins, I’m not sure Atlanta doesn’t have the two worst losses of 2025. The weekly variance for this team is disgusting and hard to explain.

Sure, the offense wasn’t great in this one when you replace Michael Penix Jr. with dusty-ass Kirk Cousins and no Drake London. Darnell Mooney was only coming back from injury and didn’t seem ready for the quarterback change either. That part makes some sense, though it does give you some proof that Cousins is so washed in 2025, because in any other year, he’d at least find a way to throw for 250 yards and a few touchdowns against a defense this bad. And how does Bijan Robinson not get fed the ball? It feels like they started Cousins last second and had no real plan.

But how does the defense have its worst game of the season against the trainwreck that is Tua Tagovailoa? That part I don’t get. The Dolphins’ first 3 touchdown drives were 79+ yards too, so it’s not like Tua threw 4 touchdowns on short fields. This was legit.

The Falcons are not legit, and I can’t help but look at the coach if you’re having such random results like this.

Next week: Welcome to November. While I doubt it was intentional, the Week 9 schedule does reek of “here’s some shit games to keep you busy before Chiefs-Bills takes over your life at 4:25.” And I’m okay with that. Colts-Steelers at least has some potential for good QB play. But TNF is Ravens-Dolphins, and it’s not like you ever get excited to watch Miami play. Seattle-Washington has lost some luster for SNF with the Jayden Daniels injury. Cardinals-Cowboys on MNF sounds like an opportunity to get an early start on writing.

2025 NFL Stat Oddity: Week 7

~ Scott ~ 1 Comment

With the way Week 7 started with Steelers-Bengals, you might think the week was set up for great drama and shootouts. Instead, we got the least dramatic week of 2025 with the most dramatic ending that came out of nowhere between the Giants and Broncos.

We only had six games with a comeback opportunity in Week 7 (5 on Sunday), and only two games had a fourth-quarter lead change. But what a few changes it was in Denver.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Giants at Broncos: Comeback of the Year

I thought the Broncos had their improbable comeback in Philadelphia when they were down 17-3 going into the fourth quarter and won 21-17. But they outdid themselves this time in one of the wildest fourth-quarter finishes in NFL history.

The Broncos scored 33 points in the fourth quarter alone after trailing 19-0 to start the quarter. That’s a record for points scored by a team who was shutout for 45 minutes. Not only did the Broncos make a 19-point comeback, but they still allowed two touchdowns in the quarter, falling behind 26-8 with 10:14 left and then again 32-30 with 0:37 left. Obviously, the missed extra point doomed the Giants in the end.

Funny how a couple of plays that should have benefitted the Giants actually hurt them late too. By getting a controversial defensive pass interference penalty and a replay showing Jaxson Dart scored from the 1-yard line on his first-down run, the Giants covered those final 40 yards in 12 seconds. That’s where you’d actually like to need 2-3 plays to score the game-winning touchdown, leaving Denver little time to answer with no timeouts.

But this was wild stuff as Bo Nix threw two touchdowns and rushed for two more in the quarter, another thing no player had ever done before in NFL history. Each team scored a touchdown off a deflected pass as well in that 46-point quarter.

Dart had a fantastic game on the road against this defense without Malik Nabers. His only big mistake was that interception with 4:47 left after Denver just scored a touchdown to make it 26-16. That set up the Broncos to become the 30th team since 2001 to win a game after manufacturing a multi-score comeback in the final 5:00.

NFL Comebacks Down Multiple Scores Final 5:00

What separates this table from a regular game where a team wins after trailing by two scores in the final 5:00 is the time they had at the start of the comeback. It’s not as uncommon to see a team get the ball back with 10 minutes, score with 4:30, then use that time to get the ball back and win. This way, you have to actually complete the whole drive, score, get the ball back, score again, then finish as you have to finish for the win all within 5:00.

What makes Denver stand out on this table is that it’s only the seventh team that trailed by 3 possessions in the quarter, and the 19-point maximum deficit is the second largest of the 30 games. The only one that tops it is the 2003 Colts’ comeback in Tampa Bay, which is still the gold standard for improbable comebacks in NFL history.

But this one will rank up there, and it sure puts a dent in the Giants’ attempt to get to 3-4 and go on a run with Dart. It keeps the Broncos (5-2) on top of the AFC West with an easier remaining schedule than Kansas City.

At the same time, Sean Payton’s team has already lost to the Colts and Chargers, his offense has shit the bed for 6-of-8 quarters against the Eagles and Giants, and I can’t see this type of comeback happening again for them this year.

Better question is why is Denver down multiple scores so often in the fourth quarter with that defense on the other side? We won’t see them play the Chiefs until Week 11.

Eagles at Vikings: What’s the Opposite of a Revenge Game?

The Eagles got a great look at why they made the right move in 2020 to replace Carson Wentz with Jalen Hurts. The former got the start for the Vikings, had a few laughable turnovers, including a pick-six, while Hurts had maybe the best passing game of his career. Beyond the perfect passer rating, he hit his deep throws and they came at huge moments to salt this 28-22 win away.

This was one of the few close finishes we had this week, and the coaches in this game have two of the best records in such games among active coaches. But I thought there were some questionable strategy decisions in the final quarter.

Up 21-16, the Eagles ran the ball on a 3rd-and-5 on an unproductive day for Saquon Barkley and settled for a 42-yard field goal, which was missed. Down 28-19, the Vikings had a touchdown to T.J. Hockenson overturned by replay after he lost control of the ball after it touched the ground, a nitpicking thing they like to do with catches. I feel like if you control it on the ground and it pops out after you’ve cleared the ground, but you catch it again without it touching the ground, it should count. But they don’t make that distinction.

That gave Kevin O’Connell a tough decision to make on a 4th-and-2 at the Philadelphia 15 with 2:58 left. If it was 4th-and-goal at the 2, I see the argument being quite clear for going for the touchdown. But from the 15? He had four clock stoppages left, and by kicking the field goal there, you give yourself some margin for error to get the stop and get the ball back (want no part of onside kick recovery). With the Eagles, you can’t treat them like a normal 3-down offense. If they get 3rd-and-2 or shorter, they’re probably going Tush Push twice.

So, it looks like the trend is to go for it early these days, but I don’t agree with that in this case. The game is over right there if you don’t convert the 4th-and-2, so I don’t like that idea with almost 3:00 left. Too early to end the game by pushing it into pure miracle territory (stop, score, onside kick recovery, score).

The Vikings ultimately went for it, got it, but after a sack and completion, they ended up wasting the 2-minute warning and still had to kick the field goal anyway on 4th-and-goal from the 11. They wasted a full minute and clock stoppage just to get the field goal they could have got with 2:55 left. Bad process.

That made getting the 3-and-out the last shot. The Eagles gave them a break with a 2nd-and-9 incompletion, but then Hurts found A.J. Brown deep one more time for 45 yards, a dagger. At that point, the Eagles could just run four time-consuming plays and never give the ball back to Minnesota, which is what happened.

Maybe the Vikings never get the ball back either way, but I still think waiting to kick the field goal was a big mistake. Not everything is solved for the Eagles, but at least the passing game showed it can hit big plays. Still have to fix the running game and 3rd down efficiency.

Raiders at Chiefs: The Almost Perfect Game

The spread got up to Chiefs -13.5 once you found out the Raiders wouldn’t have Jakobi Meyers or Brock Bowers available. But what the Raiders really needed was a time machine that could bring Howie Long, Ted Hendricks, Jack Tatum, Charles Woodson, and Willie Brown in their prime to the defense.

Even then it may not have mattered as the Chiefs were as dialed in as you could be for an NFL game these days. For three quarters, this was really close to a perfect performance on both sides of the ball.

The offense had touchdown drives of 92, 84, 94, and 65 yards before settling for a 66-yard field goal drive. That’s over 80 yards per drive and 31 points before Andy Reid pulled Patrick Mahomes, and they were missing 40% of the offensive line as Josh Simmons was inactive and Trey Smith was injured early in the game. Rashee Rice scored two touchdowns, and it felt like they were holding things back still.

But like I’ve been saying for over a year, people have judged Mahomes without his best receivers available despite all the success they still had. Now he gets to play his first game in years with his full arsenal of receivers, and he averages 80.2 yards and 6.2 points per drive. Absurd numbers, and it’s not just a matter of playing the Raiders, who were top 20 in those drive stats coming into the week. The Chiefs have been playing elite offense for several weeks now.

Then the defense pitched the first shutout of the Mahomes era. The Raiders went scoreless on 10 possessions. They ran as many plays (30) as the Chiefs had first downs. It’s just the fourth time in NFL history a team got to 30 first downs while allowing no more than 3 first downs.

This game was pure domination, the most lopsided in the NFL this season.

Colts at Chargers: Indy’s Year?

Talk about role reversal. First, it’s been a long time since the Colts and Chargers have played a real meaningful game against each other. You have to go back to 2013 to find the last time they met in a season they’d both make the playoffs. Maybe that happens this year but no guarantee yet. The Chargers used to give the Colts a hard time too in the Manning era.

But on Sunday, it was all Indy from the start. The Colts led 20-3 and intercepted Justin Herbert twice, including another deflected ball at the line that’s been an issue for him the last month. He ended up throwing for 420 yards and 3 touchdowns, but he needed 55 attempts, he led the team in rushing (31 yards), and his last drive consumed 9:14 off the clock before ending in a failed completion on 4th-and-forever, a killer in a 38-24 game.

The Colts are just so deadly efficient on offense this year. They scored on 6-of-7 drives to start the game, including four long touchdown drives. Daniel Jones and Jonathan Taylor played great again.

The Colts and Chiefs look like the best teams in the AFC right now, if not the whole NFL as you just can’t argue with this kind of offensive efficiency. Then when you’re getting takeaways, it’s super hard to beat a team playing at this level.

I picked the Colts to win this game, but I thought for sure it’d be a tight one late. But the Colts have legitimate arguments for MVP (Jones), OPOY (Taylor), Coach of the Year (Steichen), and OROY (Tyler Warren).

I liked the supporting cast this summer but obviously had six years of data to not trust Daniel Jones. But he’s proving me and everyone wrong.

Packers at Cardinals: Too Close for Comfort

Maybe Green Bay fans were fair to be worried the team struggled with the Bengals in the second half last week. This team really hasn’t been that great since the first two games of the year, yet they continue getting large spreads.

Jacoby Brissett more or less did what he did last week. Gave the Cardinals a chance, gave them a fourth-quarter lead, got Trey McBride touchdowns in a way Kyler Murray couldn’t last year, and he still came up short in the end in a 27-23 loss as Arizona has blown a league-high four leads in the fourth quarter.

Good game-winning drive for Jordan Love, who doesn’t have a lot of them, and he got an incredible catch from Tucker Kraft on a fourth down. Good game for the DPOY candidacy for Micah Parsons, who had 3.0 sacks despite getting called for only the second hip-drop tackle in the NFL this season.

But I agree with the notion that the Packers aren’t close to playing their best football after the way they played the first two weeks showed promise of an elite team. Up next is SNF in Pittsburgh against a certain quarterback and coach who are steaming after last week’s loss.

Should be good TV.

Patriots at Titans: Mike Vrabel Revenge Game

My most confident pick this week was the Patriots covering the 7-point spread, which went down to 6.5 for some reason. I was nervous to see that along with all the people riding the Titans. I guess the optimism was over the new coach bump, but that lasted about a quarter here. The Patriots trailed 10-3 before winning 31-13 with little resistance from Tennessee.

Cam Ward had another terrible play where the ball just slipped away from him and it went for an easy touchdown. Drake Maye completed 21/23 passes, though he did get sacked four times.

The Patriots took it easy after the fumble touchdown and still covered easily. The Titans have a long way to go, but on the bright side, look how quickly the Patriots have improved after consecutive 4-win seasons. They’re 5-2 now, though this easy schedule is a godsend in 2025.

Commanders at Cowboys: Washington’s Forces Undermanned  

I had high hopes for this game a few days ago, then I saw the Commanders were going to be without their top three wide receivers (Terry McLaurin, Deebo Samuel, Noah Brown). They’re already without their best receiving back (Austin Ekeler), so this is putting a lot of pressure on Jayden Daniels even if it’s against a bad defense.

But the shootout was never quite on as the Commanders punted three times in the first quarter as Dallas was getting some timely pressures and stops at home for a change. The offense was still hot with Dak Prescott getting CeeDee Lamb back to give him his full arsenal, and then Daniels was injured, putting Marcus Mariota in the game. He forced a bad pick six and the rout was on in a 44-22 final.

We’ll see what the news is on Daniels, but the Commanders (3-4) are fading fast with the Chiefs, Seahawks, and Lions up next. Just too many injuries to the wideouts – I’m telling you it’s not normal to be down this many of your top guys at the same time – and now two injuries to Daniels.

I guess I was wrong about Washington in 2025. But at least I didn’t go all in and have them winning the NFC East and getting to a Super Bowl and all that. I learned my lesson from Houston last year.

Saints at Bears: Dennis Allen Revenge Game

With all the revenge games this week, I should have given some thought to Dennis Allen, the Chicago defensive coordinator, taking on his former team that fired him last season. It was an old-school mix of running the ball (222 yards) and defense (four takeaways off Spencer Rattler) that won this game 26-14 rather than Ben Johnson’s passing game.

I’ve given Rattler credit for keeping things close this year, but this was his worst game. Even after some Chris Olave touchdowns turned a 20-0 deficit into a 20-14 game, the Saints were scoreless the rest of the way.

The Bears are 4-2 with key wins over Dallas and Washington for tiebreakers. They were 4-2 last year as well, but I think it’s safe to say this team will finish stronger.

Rams vs. Jaguars: London Jags My Ass

Boy, am I glad I didn’t get up early for the start of this one. The London Jags are supposed to feel comfortable in these surroundings, but I guess Liam Coen didn’t get that memo. This was the team’s worst performance of the season, allowing Matthew Stafford to throw 5 touchdowns without Puka Nacua and without even throwing for 190 yards.

The Jaguars missed one field goal early in the rain, then kept failing on fourth down over and over. Trevor Lawrence basically had three modes: wild incompletion, drop, or sack. The only bright side was Travis Hunter scored his first touchdown and had his biggest impact as a receiver yet, but he also didn’t play defense. So I’m not sure what the plan is there now.

But what a terrible performance for a team that’s been nothing but terrible since upsetting the Chiefs, the game they must have thought was the Super Bowl.

Panthers at Jets: 0-7

I’m proud of my Week 7 picks where I didn’t fall for the bait that the Jets might actually win a game at home against Carolina. My favorite pick was an alternate line for the Panthers (O/U 21.5) to score under 20.5 points, thinking maybe Justin Fields could win a game if the team allows under 21 points seeing as how he’s 0-26 when they allow more.

For the second week in a row, Aaron Glenn’s defense was fine and only allowed 13 points, but Fields was stuck on 3 points before he was benched for Tyrod Taylor. The offense moved better with Taylor, but he’s still one of the worst 4QC quarterbacks in NFL history too, so they still lost 13-6 after not being able to tie the game late. In fact, the Jets punted on 4th-and-10 deep in their own end in no man’s land with 1:55 left. Never saw the ball again.

Panthers lost Bryce Young during the game but it didn’t matter. They’re 4-3 and doing well. The Jets are 0-7 and look like they need a full reset. New York is only the third team since 2008 to lose back-to-back games without allowing more than 13 points. The 2023 Patriots did it three games in a row and the 2011 Bears (Caleb Hanie year) did it for two weeks.

Dolphins at Browns: The End of Mike McDaniel-Tua Tagovailoa?

I’m expecting to wake up Monday and see that the Dolphins fired Mike McDaniel. It’s hardly all his fault this year as the roster is weak, he’s lost key players, and Tua Tagovailoa is playing some horrible football.

But Sunday was likely the last straw as you can’t lose 31-6 to a bad Cleveland team with a rookie quarterback. The Browns hadn’t surpassed 17 points in any game this year, and they may have been stuck there again if Tua didn’t basically spot them 14 points after halftime.

It’s not going to be an attractive job for the next coach either as you have Tua on a ridiculous contract, and Tyreek Hill will probably never be the same player after his injury and his age. Tough sell.

Falcons at 49ers: CMC Carry Job

I did something I don’t think I’ve ever done during Sunday Night Football. I wasn’t feeling well, so I went up to bed, got under the covers, plugged my phone in to charge, turned the game on it, and listened to it while being in twilight sleep mode.

Doesn’t look like I missed much as the game had one 20-yard play, and that was before halftime with the Falcons wasting another pre-halftime drive by not getting any points after a grounding penalty. George Kittle was back and didn’t get a single catch as Mac Jones only threw for 152 yards against that legit Atlanta pass defense.

But it was a great night for a vintage Christian McCaffrey performance. He had 201 yards from scrimmage and iced the game on his second touchdown in a 20-10 win. The Falcons had their shot in a 13-10 game, but they didn’t pick up 1 yard on two plays, and then the 49ers had their long drive to put it away.

Next week: Vikings-Chargers isn’t bad for TNF, but will we see J.J. McCarthy return on a short week? Finally, a break from another international game Sunday morning. Buffalo at Carolina is suddenly more interesting than it has any business being. Chicago-Baltimore is also more interesting for the desperate Ravens. Dallas-Denver will have to carry the weak late slate. Aaron Rodgers gets probably his only shot against the Packers on Sunday night, and I’ll say it early I think he’s going to win  the game. Washington-KC could take a big hit on MNF if Jayden Daniels can’t go, but Chiefs should roll through that defense regardless of the QB.

2025 NFL Stat Oddity: Week 6

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

I don’t think Week 6 changes the 2025 NFL narrative too much, though we’ll see what the injury news is on Puka Nacua. But the 49ers are so banged up that it may not matter as much as the Seahawks and Rams won’t meet until November 16.

The Chiefs are still the class of the AFC West. The Jets and Dolphins still suck. The Cowboys still can’t play defense. The AFC North, save for Pittsburgh, still can’t win. The Colts are still scoring efficiently as Daniel Jones, Baker Mayfield, and Sam Darnold keep slinging it. The Packers still can’t cover the spread against Joe Flacco.

The change may be coming in the NFC East as the Eagles just look offensively lost, which may not come as a surprise when you see how Spencer Rattler is competing against superior teams in Kellen Moore’s offense.

Coaching matters. Just ask UCLA and Penn State.

After last week’s brutal picks had me riding a 4-11 ML streak going into yesterday, I rebounded nicely with 11-1 SU and 7-4 ATS on Sunday. There were only seven games with a comeback opportunity with a good MNF doubleheader still to come.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Lions at Chiefs: Look Who’s Still the Team to Beat

Ever since the second half of Week 3 against the Giants, the Chiefs have played offense at an elite level that you can put up there with anything they did in 2018-24. If teams wanted to humble this team, they needed to do it now when Rashee Rice was suspended these first six games.

Instead, you’re getting MVP-caliber play from Mahomes, who trusts his offensive line and receivers again, and the defense is feeding off of that as the Chiefs are winning games by two touchdowns or more this year instead of relying on one-score grinds.

Of course, the Chiefs can’t play a game in prime time without people wanting to turn it into an officiating controversy. The most notable thing about the officiating in Sunday night’s game was the lack of it.

After 13 penalties for 109 yards in Jacksonville, the Chiefs had zero accepted penalties in this game. Zero. You might say that sounds fishy, but after such an undisciplined performance on Monday, it’s safe to say they made it a point of emphasis in a very important game to not fall to 2-4.

There have also been 91 instances since 1970 of an NFL team having 0 penalties, so while it is very uncommon, it’s not unprecedented. The Lions only had four penalties in the game, so the refs were letting them play for the most part.

In fact, it’s easy to recall all 4 accepted penalties in the game on Detroit:

  • The first was the illegal motion on Jared Goff’s touchdown reception on the opening drive. The dynamics of how that was called appeared a little off, but the play wasn’t officially reviewed, and they got it right.
  • That led to a delay of game as the Lions were frustrated having to settle for a field goal.
  • The third penalty was DPI after Rock Ya-Sin grabbed Travis Kelce on the collar on a big 3rd-and-10 in the second quarter.
  • The fourth penalty was roughing the passer on Aidan Hutchinson for a clear late hit.

Early on, the Lions were hurting themselves with mistakes like the Goff illegal motion, Amon-Ra St. Brown’s drop, and a bad drive to end the half. But in the second half, the defense was legitimately stopping the No. 1 scoring offense, containing the runs that worked early, and limiting YAC for St. Brown and company. Detroit’s only score of the half was a brilliant catch by Sam LaPorta for a touchdown.

Meanwhile, the Chiefs are going to be hard to beat if they’re scoring 30 points on 7 drives like they did here. Andy Reid seemed to wise up on some 4th-down punts this year by going for it a few times against an elite scoring machine like Detroit, which helped.

Mahomes played another very sharp game, and while the Lions were down multiple corners, he largely attacked their linebackers in coverage underneath. Tyquan Thonrton, their new deep threat, didn’t even have a target as the Chiefs mostly avoided playing 3-4 WR sets, keeping Detroit in base defense. That’s a nice little wrinkle you wouldn’t expect with the Lions down corners.

The Chiefs were also without left tackle Justin Simmons, who didn’t make the trip for personal reasons. But they paid Jaylon Moore good money to ride the bench, so he stepped in admirably at left tackle. Only glaring mistake was a late sack he gave up, but the game was in hand by then.

I think Goff faded after a good start, and Dan Campbell made one of his dumbest coaching calls ever on the final drive. Yes, they needed 2 touchdowns with an onside kick recovery, so it was pure miracle territory. But how do you get a 2nd-and-1 with 2:14 left and throw three incomplete passes? I can see doing it once, but that close to the 2-minute warning where you know the clock will stop, just run the god damn ball, get your yard, and start with a new set of downs with 2:00 left. That was coaching malpractice on Campbell’s part.

And yes, I’m extra pissed since I lost out on $270 as a parlay needed just 5 more yards from St. Brown. Just horrible execution from Detroit on that last drive.

But the Chiefs get to 3-3 without Rice and after facing the toughest part of their schedule. They still have a lot of playoff-caliber opponents left on the schedule, but the first six games were always the toughest with the Chargers, Eagles, Ravens, Lions, and no Rice for any of them.

If you look around the league at the way no one is really standing out – Broncos and Chargers barely squeaked by the awful Jets and Dolphins – in either conference, then there’s no reason not to think the Chiefs are still the team to beat in January.

If the defense can step up and hold a team like Detroit to 17 points with the offense playing this efficiently even before Rice is back, then good luck to the rest of the league from stopping another Super Bowl berth.

Only downside is Harrison Butker continues to suck, and the Chiefs still haven’t won a one-score game this season. But that’ll come eventually.

The Chiefs are still the Chiefs.

49ers at Buccaneers: Infirmary Bowl

I know there’s no such thing as a fully-healthy team in the NFL in Week 6, but JFC, these teams could have at least a little better injury luck than this. The Buccaneers didn’t have their top two wideouts (Mike Evans and Chris Godwin), starting running back (Bucky Irving), and rookie sensation Emeka Egbuka left the game early with a hamstring injury.

The 49ers were still without Brock Purdy, Brandon Aiyuk, Ricky Pearsall, George Kittle, and Nick Bosa. They lost All-Pro linebacker Fred Warner for the season in this game with a dislocated ankle, which his terrible to see as I was just saying how impressive he was on the ManningCast. Hate to see a defense that’s now without its two best players.

In the end, the Bucs handled their injuries better as they have Baker Mayfield while the 49ers have Mac Jones. Sure, Jones has played better this year under Kyle Shanahan even without a full arsenal of weapons. But his first pass of the day should have been a pick-six if the defender could ever get up instead of falling over three times. That led to a 12-yard touchdown drive for the Bucs, who didn’t trail in the final 35 minutes.

Tampa also has the deepest receiving room in the NFL. I never even heard of Kameron Johnson, who had one target in his career before Sunday and no catches in the NFL, but there he was catching a 34-yard touchdown. Then after Baker Mayfield made one of his classic scrambles to convert a 3rd-and-14, a 7th-round rookie named Tez Johnson made a great fingertips catch for a 45-yard touchdown to give the Bucs a 27-19 lead going into the fourth quarter.

These teams were both 4-1 in close games, and this one would also go to the fourth quarter with a one-score deficit. It just didn’t end as dramatically because the 49ers couldn’t come close to scoring the game-tying touchdown. Lavonte David took down Jones on a big 3rd-and-11 sack.

Then after a stopped QB sneak and false start, Jones was picked on a 4th-and-5 with 5:43 left. The Bucs turned that into a 45-yard field goal after Chase McLaughlin redeemed himself for an earlier miss in the quarter. Down 30-19, the 49ers went 4-and-out to end this one.

Interesting to see where these teams go from here. It feels like the injuries are piling up for the 49ers and they won’t be able to recover for a Super Bowl run. But it also feels like Tampa has used up a lot of its late-game magic already for one season and will need to play better once it could ever get its wide receivers back healthy.

But the injuries have been a hell of a thing to watch with these teams.

Rams at Ravens: At What Point Do You Panic?

If I was a fan of the Baltimore Ravens (1-5), I think this game would have pissed me off more than the last few when they got their asses handed to them. They teased us on Sunday that they could win this game against the Rams, who again were underachieving in a game.

The defense actually showed up for Baltimore this week. Sure, it helps when Puka Nacua gets injured and the Rams can’t make simple field goals, but they held them to 3.2 YPC and Stafford only passed for 181 yards with an early strip-sack fumble.

They got 122 rushing yards from Derrick Henry, who was more of the focal point as he needed to be in Lamar Jackson’s absence. But Zay Flowers was a double agent as many of his targets and touches led to disasters for the Ravens, including a pick, an incomplete 4th-and-3 pass, and two fumbles.

This game was lost in that 7:00 middle between the halves. The Tush Push with Mark Andrews didn’t work twice, so the Ravens ran Henry on 4th-and-goal at the 1 and were stuffed, keeping the score tied at 3. Then after the Rams got a touchdown, Flowers fumbled a completion, setting up the Rams for a 21-yard touchdown drive and 17-3 lead. No more points were scored in the final 25 minutes, which is hard to believe.

Then on a first down nearing the red zone, the Ravens had another fumble that gets charged to Cooper Rush, but it was really on Flowers again for not securing the ball that was meant to be his run.

It was curious timing, but the Ravens benched Rush on the next drive for Tyler Huntley, who has experience in this system and more mobility to do more Lamar-like things. Granted, you could argue Rush never should have been in Baltimore as he doesn’t fit their normal offense like Huntley or other backups they’ve had can. So, that was always a weird choice to go with him as Lamar’s main backup.

Just as it was weird for Huntley to take over when he did after Flowers screwed up again. But it still didn’t result in any more points. Two long drives from Huntley just ended in the Ravens turning it over on downs in their latest loss.

Few teams have ever needed a bye week more than Baltimore, and Jackson should be back. They finally have fallen behind the Steelers for the AFC North odds, but it’s probably closer than you think. Sure, they have two head-to-head meetings left, but the Ravens haven’t swept Pittsburgh since 2019, and they have been swept by the Steelers multiple times since.

It’s not looking good for Baltimore fans as this team is finding ways to screw up games long before January this year.

Seahawks at Jaguars: When Two Receivers Don’t Beat One

I picked Seattle (-1.5) to win this game on the road because I thought the Jaguars would be a bit flat after Monday night’s emotional win over Kansas City, and that would negate the early body clock/travel aspect for the Seahawks. I also just think Sam Darnold is playing better football than Trevor Lawrence, and Mike Macdonald’s defensive system is more sustainable than the Jaguars relying on takeaways.

That basically played out here, but one thing I got wrong so far about these teams this year is their wide receiver play. I thought with Liam Coen coming to Jacksonville, he could get Lawrence playing well with his wide receiver duo of Brian Thomas Jr. and Travis Hunter. Well, Thomas only scored his first touchdown catch on Sunday, and Hunter had 15 yards on 4 catches.

Meanwhile, I thought Jaxon Smith-Njigba was a possession receiver, someone who would average about 11 YPC and be a downgrade for Darnold as his WR1 after he played with Justin Jefferson last year in Minnesota, or how he could have had DK Metcalf instead in this role. But JSN has been incredible as a one-man show at times as he had 162 yards in this game and a touchdown.

However, in such a low-scoring game (20-12), the Jaguars certainly had their chances. But Thomas had a huge drop on third down with 9:17 left when the Jaguars trailed 20-12. The Jaguars never really got a better look at a score than that play after their last two drives failed and ended in punts.

After Lawrence’s 7th sack brought up 4th-and-18 at their own 28, they had no choice but to punt in an 8-point game with 3:00 left. But one deep ball from Darnold to Barner for 61 yards flipped field position and basically should have ended the game as you knew Seattle could take an 11-point lead. They eventually did, but a defensive holding penalty on the field goal (rarely see that) ended the game as the Seahawks just ran the clock out with the automatic first down.

Good win for the Seahawks while the Jaguars (4-2) are still a work in progress under Coen.

Chargers at Dolphins: Mike McDaniel About to Do ALL the Cocaine

The Miami defense is a great way for a struggling offense like the Chargers to get on track. You just didn’t expect the LA defense to blow a 26-13 lead in the fourth quarter, because that’s supposed to be the silliness that Jim Harbaugh eliminates for the Chargers.

But it happened after Tua found Darren Waller wide open for a 7-yard touchdown to take a 27-26 lead with 0:46 left. Fortunately, the Chargers had a good kick return and timeout to answer it, and Justin Herbert made a contender for the play of the year to Ladd McConkey, who did his part with the YAC after Herbert’s great display of strength to avoid the sack that would have been crippling:

That made the field goal possible, and Cameron Dicker made it from 33 yards out for the 29-27 win. That’s the third blown lead for the Dolphins this season.

Probably too early to call it a season saver for the Chargers (4-2), but they have some tough games coming up with the Colts and Vikings (maybe/maybe not), so they couldn’t afford to lose a third straight to a team like the Dolphins.

Cardinals at Colts: QB Controversy in Arizona?

Maybe being back in Indy with that awful sunshine spotting the field helped him, but Jacoby Brissett seemed pretty comfortable for a guy making his first start with Arizona for an injured Kyler Murray. Brissett threw for 320 yards, 2 touchdowns, and the Cardinals had a 27-24 lead in the fourth quarter.

That’s the kind of road game you almost never see Murray have, especially post-ACL. But it wasn’t enough as the Colts still scored enough in the end behind Daniel Jones and Jonathan Taylor. The Colts did have a few more stops than usual this week, but they still scored on their first three second-half possessions, including Taylor’s game-winning touchdown run with 4:32 left.

One thing about Brissett is he was always dreadful at game-winning drives (7-23, .233), and this one didn’t work either. It did get to the Indy 9, but the defense stopped Brissett on three straight plays.

A solid win for the Colts. You can’t compare beating the Cardinals to facing the pressure of a Buffalo or Kansas City in January, which Jones will have to step up to if he wants to get to the Super Bowl. But every win like this helps build some confidence that they can execute in those situations.

Browns at Steelers: Same Old Steelers (Or Not?)

Same Old Steelers could refer to beating Cleveland at home in the regular season as they have every year since 2003. It could also refer to beating up on a random rookie quarterback as they sacked Dillon Gabriel six times and held him to 7.6 yards per completion and 9 points.

But maybe the real test of Same Old Steelers is to see if they follow this game up with a stinker in Cincinnati this Thursday night when they have a chance to open up a 5-1 record in this AFC North race that has gotten incredibly one-sided these last two weeks. Since Pittsburgh’s bye last week, the rest of the AFC North is 0-6.

As for this game, I think Aaron Rodgers missed a few throws you’d expect him to make to big, open targets while still throwing an incredible touchdown to Heyward. The big number for Rodgers was “0” in the sacks department as Myles Garrett and company came up empty while the Steelers feasted on the rookie. There’s your main difference in this game.

Bengals at Packers: I Guess Green Bay Can’t Beat Joe Flacco AND the Spread This Year

The rest of the 2025 NFL season should just be Joe Flacco hopping from team to team to start against the Green Bay Packers. See if they can ever make a double-digit lead hold up against him.

Flacco was about as ineffective early as you’d expect from someone who was traded to the team on Tuesday and hasn’t played for this staff before. But the Packers still couldn’t blow the game wide open because of a bad Jordan Love interception on the opening drive. Meanwhile, Flacco threw 45 passes with zero picks and only one sack behind that line. I’m shocked at that.

The Bengals were also in this game in the second half. They scored on three straight possessions, and it would have been four if not for a missed 56-yard field goal in the 27-18 final. But they put the pressure on Green Bay to score three times in a row too to maintain that two-possession lead.

So, I’d say good on Flacco to make the team competitive and not sink the Bengals the way Browning did last week. Do I think it’s a season-saving move? No, I still don’t. But maybe we are having too high expectations on the Packers after those first two weeks. The defense isn’t that otherworldly if they can’t do better than this against Flacco on a short week to learn his new offense.

Patriots at Saints: Making It Look Big Easy

Not much to say here other than I respect the job Kellen Moore is doing with the Saints for another competitive effort where they came up a little short against a better team. Drake Maye had another efficient game, and some of his best throws were wiped out by penalties too.

But maybe the Patriots are back when they’re creating fumbles at midfield in one-score games in the fourth quarter. This time it was TE Juwan Johnson coughing up the ball on a potential go-ahead drive.

Cowboys at Panthers: Rico Dowdle Revenge Game Indeed

I never had any strong opinions about whether the Cowboys should have kept RB Rico Dowdle for 2025. He did fine last year in a lost cause season for Dallas. He’s been better than post-injury Javonte Williams the last few years. But on Sunday, he sure made his point in one of the ultimate revenge games as Dowdle totaled 239 yards from scrimmage and scored a long touchdown catch to help the Panthers upset Dallas 30-27.

Dak Prescott played a great game with zero help from the run (17 carries for 32 yards). But his last two drives did not deliver, and when you’re trying to win some games and get in the MVP race, you have to do better than misfiring in the red zone multiple times and then throwing screens to go backwards. Seriously, Dak went 3-of-3 for minus-8 yards on his last possession – three failed completions.

But the defense must do better than letting the Panthers take off the final 6:07 on the clock to kick a game-winning field goal. They had a chance to go three-and-out right away on defense, but the Cowboys were penalized for defensive pass interference to extend the drive. Hunter Renfrow had a clutch catch on 4th-and-4, a ballsy call by Dave Canales to go for it with 2:31 left.

That put the Cowboys in a bind, and the Panthers ran the clock down to kick a 33-yard field goal. I’m still not sure if the Panthers (3-3) are any good since I’m not even sure they’ve played a team yet that is going to the playoffs this season. But I do know that Dallas defense is terrible, and that’s the predicament they put themselves in with the Parsons trade.

But what a game and moment for Dowdle. This is why you don’t necessarily need to pay someone like Chuba Hubbard when backs come and go all the time. At least, they do for most teams. The Cowboys haven’t done the best job replacing Tony Pollard.

Titans at Raiders: Trying to Set a Strip-Sack Record

I swear every time RedZone cut to this game some quarterback was getting strip-sacked or being reviewed for a strip-sack. In the end, Cam Ward fumbled twice to go with a pick. I thought Geno Smith would be sharper than this, but maybe Brock Bowers means more to this passing game than expected.

One of those Ward strip-sacks set up a 2-yard touchdown drive for the Raiders, so this was easy street for Vegas to get back in the win column. The Titans are quite arguably worse this season than last year with Will Levis.

Jets vs. Broncos: London Snooze

It was almost 8:00 AM ET on Sunday when I was still awake, trying to fall asleep. So, when my alarm went off at 11:05 and I saw the halftime score of this shit game in London, I hit the snooze for another 45 minutes. Caught most of the fourth quarter and couldn’t believe that Sean Payton was about to blow a game to this team after a safety provided a little 11-10 edge for the Jets.

But sure enough, that pass rush saved the day for Denver after the offense managed a go-ahead field goal drive and 13-11 lead. More accurately, Justin Fields’ terrible ability to get rid of the ball in a timely manner did him in as he never got the passing game going, and he took 9 sacks. I don’ t think the last 3 were necessarily his fault as they engulfed him quickly, but he never had an answer for how to attack a defense with talent at each level.

The Jets finished with -10 net passing yards, which is a great example of why you have to account for sack yardage. Do you know how stupid it would sound to say Fields accounted for 92% of his team’s yards in this game if we just ignored the sacks were charged to him?

Nine sacks, nine completions, and 2-15 on third down. Pathetic output as the Jets were held to 82 total yards. Fields already had that game against Buffalo where he had 3 completions while playing into the fourth quarter. This was actually worse.

I don’t know how you can continue playing him at quarterback if you’re Aaron Glenn, who did technically blow his third fourth-quarter lead in six games this season. The only good news is the Jets finally got a takeaway on the third play of the game, a Troy Franklin fumble recovery.

However, that just further shows how pathetic Fields was. Of the 11 points scored by the Jets, 2 were on a safety, 3 were on a 3-yard drive set up by the fumble, and 3 more were set up on a 1-yard drive after a 72-yard kick return. Even their only legitimate scoring drive started at their own 43 after a good kick return to start the second half.

Let’s stop pretending Fields can do this job. Maybe if he sits for years like Geno Smith, he can make it somewhere else down the road, but it’s not happening with the Jets.

Next week: Steelers-Bengals on TNF sounds like a classic upset spot for Tomlin vs. Flacco. Rams-Jaguars is the best Sunday morning international game yet. Maybe I’ll get up a little earlier for that. Eagles-Vikings could be interesting as I’d actually like to see it be a Carson Wentz Revenge Game. Not sure we’ll get that though. Giants-Denver is suddenly more interesting with the run-based offense the Giants have now with their rookies.

Colts-Chargers sounds fun. Commanders-Cowboys could be a shootout. Falcons-49ers is a bold choice for SNF. But MNF is really where it’s at with Lions-Bucs and Seahawks-Texans, and they’re played in different windows to boot, which is nice. I wish tonight was set up that way.