2024 NFL Stat Oddity: Week 14

December 9, 2024December 9, 2024 ~ Scott ~ 2 Comments

Maybe it wasn’t supposed to be a hugely consequential day in the 2024 NFL season, but Week 14 felt like a big one with the Chiefs (12-1) getting some cushion in the AFC after the Bills were upset by the Rams in the shootout of the year that was still a wire-to-wire win for Sean McVay’s team. The Chiefs also came through with yet another close win to clinch the AFC West for the ninth year in a row.

The Steelers also took care of business against the Browns, so that Week 16 game in Baltimore can win them the AFC North regardless of what happens in Week 15. But we’ll worry about that game when it’s here.

We had eight games with a comeback opportunity, and so far, no team came back from a double-digit deficit to win this week. Could that mean more trouble for the Bengals against Cooper Rush in Dallas? We’ll see.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Bills at Rams: The Puka Nacua Show

If you’re a fan of the Rams, you have to be wondering where the hell was this offense for coach Sean McVay when they couldn’t even score a single touchdown at home against Miami on MNF in Week 10. That could still be the loss that keeps them out of the playoffs, but they turned heads with this strong offensive performance against Buffalo in a stunning 44-42 win.

Right from the opening drive, it was clear they came prepared for this one. But while the running game looked good early, it became much more dependent on Puka Nacua making incredible catches to extend drives for Matthew Stafford.

As for the Bills, it was wild to see how this usually dominant team could not stay ahead of the Rams. They had nine possessions in the game and here’s what happened with the scoring margin at the beginning of each:

Down 7-0, 1-yard Josh Allen touchdown run
Down 10-7, blocked punt returned for touchdown (17-7) after three straight Josh Allen incompletions
Down 17-7, 41-yard touchdown on a screen pass
Down 24-14, punt before halftime
Down 24-14, 3-and-out to start third quarter
Down 31-14, 51-yard touchdown pass to Khalil Shakir
Down 38-21, 1-yard Josh Allen touchdown run
Down 38-28, 21-yard touchdown to Mack Hollins
Down 44-35, 1-yard Josh Allen touchdown run

That means the Bills only had the ball one time the entire game where they trailed by fewer than 7 points, and that was the damaging 2nd drive when they punted quickly and it was blocked for a huge touchdown. They found themselves trying to chase that all day, and despite getting two huge touchdowns on YAC plays, they still couldn’t force the Rams into enough stops to get the ball back with a chance to ever tie or take the lead.

The Rams are usually not great in closing games out under McVay, especially in the 4-minute offense. But he had a plan for this one. Instead of kicking a long field goal to try to take a 6-point lead with several minutes left, he did the smart thing by going for it. The Rams got away with a false start, but Stafford was able to find Tutu Atwell for a huge 11-yard gain with the clock moving down near 3:00.

The old McVay kicks the field goal there and relies on his defense. He learned something here, or maybe Sunday was just a really great day for him, his offense, and Nacua. Fittingly, it was Nacua who capped off the drive with a 19-yard touchdown. But after the Rams missed the extra point with 1:54 left, there was a slight door open in a 44-35 game.

The Bills got down the field quickly thanks to some penalties, but it was on 1st-and-goal at the 1 with 1:06 left where they made a serious error in strategy, the latest blunder in the Sean McDermott era. The Bills tried to run Allen on the sneak again, a play that he was 3-for-5 on in this game at the 1. But you can’t be doing that, not scoring, and burning a precious timeout at 1:02 to run it again.

In his career (regular season), Allen has 20 touchdown runs from the 1-yard line and 9 touchdown passes from the 1. It’s clear which strategy he feels more comfortable doing, and that number is only 16 touchdown passes if we extend to the 2-yard line as well. He wants the higher-percentage play in the run instead of trying to find a throwing lane that tight in or risk another sack.

But in this particular spot, you really don’t have the time to be running the ball because of that fear of getting stopped and wasting too much time. You have to avoid using any timeouts, because you want to avoid doing the onside kick or at least avoid having to recover one to have a realistic shot. By taking the timeout at 1:02, that meant it was going to come down to the onside kick recovery. Tom Brady, who sounded worse than usual as he was losing his voice, was all over this strategic failure, the latest blunder for the Bills in the McDermott era in a loss.

Allen eventually got his touchdown run, his third of the day to go along with three touchdown passes, a stat line that only Otto Graham put up in the 1954 NFL Championship Game. But that’s why I said on Twitter that they were trying to pad Allen’s stat line with the easy, high percentage score of a run so people can inflate the value of this 3+3=6 stat instead of sticking to a needed strategy of making a throw in this spot, which is usually going to be tougher than someone sneaking over the line for a yard. Again, Allen’s success rate from the 1 on that play here was only 3-for-5 on Sunday.

Sure enough, they made it come down to the onside kick, which they didn’t recover. The Rams ended up punting and the clock expired at the end of the punt. All those points and touchdowns for a wire-to-wire loss where the Bills never even had the ball in a one-score game after the blocked punt for a touchdown early in the second quarter.

I’ve been very critical of McVay in games like this in the past, but he was mostly on the money with his approach here. He outcoached McDermott and the Bills, and Nacua and Stafford were outstanding.

If this propels the Rams (7-6) to a division title run by running the table, then it takes on even more significance. But the Bills gave up a huge opportunity to the Chiefs with a game in Detroit to come next, and with the way that defense is banged up, it could be another 44-42 game.

Will the Bills fall short in that one too? They’re only 2-2 against current playoff teams this year. As for Allen’s MVP odds actually improving from -250 to -450 after a loss, there’s always later in the week for another article on that. I need sleep.

Chargers at Chiefs: Another AFC West Wrapped Up

Like Spotify, the Chiefs were mailing in their AFC West Wrapped for 2024. Another 19-17 victory against a division rival? Just type up the script and send it in. Maybe add a doink FG by the backup kicker to end this one with a little spice.

But it was business as usual for the 2024 Chiefs, which means a win, which means a weekly fraud alert by social media for the “worst 12-1 team ever.” But I would say it’s alarming that the games are playing out so similarly as the 2020 Steelers and 2023 Eagles started falling into familiar scripts before their collapses too. The Chiefs are in a much better spot than those teams and have the track record to believe in them, but you can’t keep blowing 13-point leads this quickly every week, you can’t keep giving up so many pressures and sacks on Patrick Mahomes, and you have to remember to run the ball.

A lot of these Kansas City issues were on display even with new left tackle D.J. Humphries, who left the game with a fourth quarter injury. Pretty bold move to go empty backfield with Wanya Morris back at left tackle, but they made it work out.

Mahomes didn’t play his best game, but he also threw his best pass of the night to DeAndre Hopkins on a 3rd-and-16 with the Chiefs trailing in the fourth quarter, and for the second week in a row, the veteran did not make the catch in a big moment. He had an excuse of the defender hitting him this time, but you still have to hang onto a pass that would have made it first-and-goal. The Chiefs settled for a 50-yard field goal from backup kicker Matthew Wright, and he was good.

But the Chargers held the ball for 8:29 before settling for their own field goal to regain a 17-16 lead with 4:35 left. Justin Herbert was missing his only reliable receiver in Ladd McConkey and his best running back in J.K. Dobbins. That certainly made the job easier for the Chiefs, but once again, they struggled to get any takeaways in a game that didn’t have any again on either side. The only turnover in Kansas City’s last three games was the fumbled snap by the Raiders on Black Friday.

This was also a low-possession game with 9 drives for each quarterback. But after Herbert took the lead, he never saw the field again on a night where he played decently with 213 yards. Even Quentin Johnston made a few nice catches and caught a touchdown.

But in leading his seventh game-winning drive of 2024, Mahomes again used his legs to deliver decisive plays like the 3rd-and-10 conversion to Xavier Worthy. At the 2-minute warning, the Chiefs faced a hug 3rd-and-7, because giving Herbert the ball back there may mean you never see it again in a loss. But Mahomes again scrambled, dodged a sack, and found a waiting Travis Kelce for the conversion.

From there, it was just a matter of setting up the field goal as the last snap. Wright came on and bounced the kick off the left upright before it deflected in okay for the game-winning kick. The Chiefs have won the AFC West nine years in a row, trailing only the record set by the 2009-19 Patriots (11).

The Chiefs are 12-1 and “Chiefs win by 1-13 points” is literally 12-1 as a bet this year. The only other team to win 12 games by 1-13 points in a season was the 2004 Steelers, another record the Chiefs could break with ease this year.

Maybe the Chiefs can throw in a twist next week in Cleveland and introduce some defensive takeaways to the mix courtesy of Jameis Winston.

Panthers at Eagles: Xavier Legette? More Like Leggette Your Ass a Bus Ticket Home After That Drop

If you’re a fan of the Carolina Panthers, this month should be the most optimistic you’ve felt about the team since 2018, if not longer ago. While they didn’t get the win in Philly as a 13.5-point underdog, this should be remembered as the day where Bryce Young was about to lead a 97-yard game-winning touchdown drive against a stingy defense, and Xavier Legette did this:

https://twitter.com/MySportsUpdate/status/1865862520889618860

I thought he had it live. But after that huge drop, there was a delay of game penalty, and Young eventually threw incomplete on 4th-and-9 to end the game, a 22-16 punch to the gut after it looked like Young did everything right.

Jalen Hurts had a really rough passing day (108 passing yards and 4 sacks), but the running game produced 209 yards with 124 yards to Saquon Barkley. Go figure, I had 125 as my bet, and it probably happens if the Eagles didn’t have a penalty on 2nd down while they were hanging onto their one-score lead, causing them to throw more.

But the Eagles (-13.5) never led by more than 6 points, and even that only happened early in the fourth quarter after Hurts threw a short touchdown pass. Not the most impressive win for the Eagles by any means. They lost the pass-rush battle to Young and the Panthers.

Damn near lost the game too. Pittsburgh gets a shot next.

Falcons at Vikings: Sam Darnold’s Day to Shine

I rarely say this, but I felt kind of bad for Kirk Cousins in Minnesota this week. This was going to be his big revenge game, and while he struck early, it was Sam Darnold who shined with 347 yards and 5 touchdown passes.

After Cousins tied the game at 21 with a touchdown and 2-point conversion with 39 seconds left in the third quarter, by the next time he took the field, it was a 35-21 deficit and barely half a quarter remained. The special teams coughed up a fumble on the ensuing kickoff after Darnold’s go-ahead touchdown pass to Jordan Addison, who caught 3 on the day to go along with a pair for Justin Jefferson.

Then with the clock not in his favor, Cousins’ pass was intercepted by one hand by Byron Murphy with 6:26 left. The Vikings added yet another touchdown in the 42-21 rout that was tied at 21 to start the quarter.

The Falcons (6-7) have lost the division lead to the Buccaneers (7-6), so we’ll see where things go from here, but it’s not looking good for preseason favorite Atlanta.

Browns at Steelers: No Pickens, A Few Problems

I’d be lying if I said the Steelers didn’t have any issues without George Pickens, who was a surprise inactive on Sunday morning due to a hamstring injury suffered late in the week. But the Steelers’ issues early had more to do with the players they were targeting rather than the players they should get involved with Russell Wilson in Pickens’ absence.

Once they started throwing to them, we saw production with Mike Williams down the field and tight end Pat Freiermuth had a good game with 48 yards and a touchdown. But Wilson only threw for 158 yards this week.

This game was also decided by Chris Boswell being a much better kicker than Dustin Hopkins, who missed from 38 and 43 yards. It wasn’t even that cold here Sunday, so he had even less of an excuse for those misses. Throw in a big Jameis Winston pick on a double-clutched screen that led to a short-field touchdown to get the Steelers going, and it was a team loss by the Browns.

You can’t beat the sight of Kadarius Toney (the one and only) muffing a punt with 2:53 left in a 27-14 game. He’s always trying to destroy games for his teams. But the Steelers were able to get to 10-3 and avoid their first sweep at the hands of Cleveland since 1988.

Seahawks at Cardinals: I Guess Geno Owns Arizona?

I know I’m not the only one struggling with these NFC West teams this year. The Seahawks took the first game 16-6, so I figured the Cardinals would play better offense at home and steal this one for the split.

Welp, I didn’t realize the Seahawks are now on a 7-game winning streak against the Cardinals with Geno Smith 6-0 as a starter in those games. Arizona has struggled to score in these games, and that was the problem again after an opening-drive touchdown was followed by a pair of Kyler Murray interceptions.

Meanwhile, it was a clean game for Geno without any sacks or turnovers. Zach Charbonnet was sharp with 134 yards and 2 touchdowns in a starring role without Kenneth Walker available.

But the Year of the Kicker falling apart around the league did Arizona in too here. Down 27-18, they rightly settled for a 40-yard field goal with half a quarter left. But it was off the goal post from kicker Chad Ryland, a big miss. He was the bust the Patriots drafted in 2023 and they got rid of after one season. He was doing better for Arizona this season, but that one stings.

The Seahawks burned valuable time and added a field goal to get to the weird 30-18 final score. The game ended with Murray taking a sack deep in the red zone and the Cardinals long out of timeouts since they used them so early in the quarter in an arguably reckless way.

But it’s looking more likely by the week that the Seahawks (8-5) are going to emerge from this division as the winner. But they do play the Packers and Vikings next, so it’s far from over.

Jets at Dolphins: A 14th Straight Postseason Without the Jets

Aaron Rodgers (339 yards) finally had his first 300-yard passing game since 2021, and it still wasn’t enough to avoid a fifth blown lead in the fourth quarter this season for the Jets. This time they are officially eliminated from the playoffs with a 3-10 record.

They were up 23-15 in the final quarter, but Tua Tagovailoa had the hot hand again against this defense, and he found Tyreek Hill on a fourth-and-4. Even after the Jets took a late 26-23 lead, they went backwards on consecutive plays on that drive to make sure the Dolphins would have time left to answer, and instead of getting a touchback, Miami’s long kick return out to the 46 made it a lot easier to get the game-tying field goal for overtime from 52 yards out.

The Dolphins won the coin toss and went on offense. Even though tight end Jonnu Smith has been a revelation in this offense in the last month, he didn’t have a catch until overtime. They found him on back-to-back plays (the same play, in fact) for 20 and 14 yards, then he also finished the drive with a 10-yard touchdown to win the game 32-26.

We’re starting to see a lot more 300-yard passing duels in recent weeks, but Tagovailoa took the best Rodgers could do and one-upped him at the end for the win. Miami (6-7) is not dead yet but must keep on winning every week to have a shot at the last wild card.

Bears at 49ers: Well, It Wasn’t ALL Matt Eberflus

Normally, I’d expect a little bump in performance in the first game after a team fires its terrible coach, but I also expected a bounce-back performance from the 49ers (-3.5) in this game against Chicago. I had no idea it’d be 24-0 with the 49ers outgaining the Bears 319-4 in yards in the first half. That’s not a typo.

It got a little closer in the second half, but not even Kyle Shanahan’s mastery of blowing leads could make this one interesting. Caleb Williams fumbled on a Tuck Rule play, except the Tuck Rule is long gone. The 49ers held on to win 38-13, and we’ll see if it’s too little too late to save their season at 6-7.

Saints at Giants: No Field Goal Is Safe Anymore

We can talk about Drew Lock starting 0-for-8 or Derek Carr throwing the first interception by the Giants since Sam Darnold in Week 1, but do you really care at this point?

What’s interesting here is that the Saints blocked a 35-yard-field goal in the final seconds when it looked like the Giants were going to force overtime in a 14-11 game. It was very similar to the endings with blocked field goals in Chiefs-Broncos and Packers-Bears this season. That’s three times for something we rarely ever see.

I think that adds some great, legitimate intrigue to these moments. If you look at the way they blocked the kick, you wonder why we don’t see this a little more often. It feels more doable than recovering an onside kick these days.

Raiders at Buccaneers: Your Average Baker Rollercoaster

There’s some Jameis to this Baker Mayfield season in Tampa Bay. After two early touchdowns to build a 14-0 lead, this one lingered into the fourth quarter after Mayfield turned it over three times in the second quarter.

But the Raiders lost another quarterback to injury with Aidan O’Connell getting an air cast on his leg, and I can only hope it had to do with a previous injury getting worse, because the hit I’m seeing that “caused it” makes it look like contact sports won’t be for him.

Desmond Ridder replaced him for the fourth quarter of a 14-10 game, but he went three-and-out before the Buccaneers put it away with back-to-back touchdown drives in a 28-13 final that was misleadingly lopsided? Or maybe it was fittingly accurate. I don’t know anymore with teams like this. I just know the Raiders almost never win these games anymore.

Jaguars at Titans: No Longer a TNF Special in December for People to Ignore

Remember when they’d throw this game on a Thursday night in December when people probably wanted to go Christmas shopping or something? Well, let’s be glad they have some higher standards these days for Amazon Prime paying out the ass for these games. No one wants to watch a 10-6 shitfest between Mac Jones and Will Levis.

But I really thought this was the one game all season where you could trust Will Levis, who wasn’t horrible the last month, to put up some points and stats at home in an “easy win” against Mac Jones. And yet, it was a 10-6 comeback win as Jones improved his 4QC/GWD record to 3-14 in his career.

Levis had his chances to answer, but some laxed route running by Calvin Ridley and no special catch by Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (no longer under the radar) in the red zone led to a turnover on downs. The offense never got the ball in the end zone and now both teams are 3-10. Terrible stuff and probably one of the lowest-rated Titans-Jags games of all time.

Next week: The big one (Bills-Lions) loses some luster with the Buffalo loss. But that helps bolster Rams-49ers a bit on TNF to start the week and you might as well call that a playoff game since the loser should be done. We’ll see if the Chiefs can actually get some turnovers from Jameis Winston in Cleveland. Is Steelers-Eagles really going to be on the same time as Bills-Lions? Would prefer to see those at different times. Packers-Seahawks is solid for SNF. A weak MNF double-header (Bears-Vikings and Falcons-Raiders) to end it. Desmond Ridder Revenge Game? Ugh.

2024 NFL Stat Oddity: Week 13

December 2, 2024 ~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

Week 13 started with a lot of close NFL finishes on the holidays, but it carried over to Sunday too. A whopping 12 of the 15 games this week have been decided by 1-to-7 points with MNF pending. A few were artificially close, but there were 9 games with a comeback opportunity and we saw six game-winning drives this week.

This has felt like the week where people started picturing a Championship Sunday with Eagles-Lions and Bills-Chiefs. Maybe it ends up that way, but the one thing I’m sure of is we’ll get a new NFC champion as the 49ers are more cooked than your turkey was.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Eagles at Ravens: Best Philadelphia Win in Two Years

I have to give the Eagles (10-2) credit for what I’d call their best win in the last two seasons. They may be playing defense better than anybody since Week 6, they got this one done in Baltimore against a quarterback who was 23-1 against the NFC, and they didn’t have Darius Slay, DeVonta Smith, and they lost some defensive backs during the game too and still were up 24-12 late.

Oh, they also spotted the Ravens a 9-0 lead, which usually leads to an avalanche. But the Eagles shook off the bad start and hung in there.

However, I don’t want to give the offense too much credit since it managed just 252 yards, 4-of-12 on third down, and they didn’t even have any takeaways or long returns to produce some hidden yards in those numbers. It was a bit bland on that side of the ball, but Saquon Barkley was dominant down the stretch, and if any award was decided in this game, I’d say Barkley is inching closer to lock territory for Offensive Player of the Year. Derrick Henry may have blown his shot with no touchdowns in consecutive games and Barkley getting the push in this head-to-head matchup that wasn’t a grand offensive display by any means.

But let’s also just be honest. The Eagles sat back and watched the Ravens do what they do best this year: Beat themselves. They kept the penalties to a minimum this time, but the deterioration of Justin Tucker is getting so bad that you honestly have to consider if it’s time to say goodbye. He’s missed a career-high 10 kicks this season (with 5 games to go) and that includes 3 more in this game. They weren’t Herculean tasks either from 47 and 53 yards, and he started downhill by missing an extra point in the first quarter.

Somehow, this game had 5 fumbles and all were recovered by the team who fumbled, so no turnovers. Lamar Jackson played like someone dying to turn it over with a fumble on an unforced error that killed a drive, then he could have easily been picked on a fourth-down throw in the fourth quarter that fell incomplete (probably better for Philly’s field position). But he wasn’t impressive like he was a year ago against a Vic Fangio defense from Miami.

But Jackson’s success rate in the fourth quarter was 1-for-7 on drives where it was a 14-12 and 21-12 game, so that’s not going to help his MVP case for the team’s fifth loss this year. He also took a huge sack on the play before Tucker missed his 47-yard field goal, and had three straight failed dropbacks before the next missed field goal in the third quarter.

But if you wanted to show one play that sums up this game, just look at the way rookie corner Cooper DeJean tackled Derrick Henry for a 3-yard gain on a 3rd-and-11 in a 21-12 game:

https://twitter.com/_MLFootball/status/1863374958258270292/history

Henry’s OPOY case may have died on that snap. The Ravens got the ball back with 63 seconds left in a 24-12 game and were able to get a touchdown with just 3 seconds left. It had a bit of a garbage time feel to it, especially with Jackson running for 39 yards against a defense that thought maybe a flag was thrown. But that put 19 points on the board. Just keeping it at 12 would have given them a better shot of not setting their season low in the playoffs for the fifth-straight time under Jackson.

But the fact is the Ravens are now 8-5 and facing a stronger likelihood of taking the wild card route in January. They could also end up inevitably facing Pittsburgh in the wild card, and at this point, I’m not sure if it matters all that much if the game is played in Pittsburgh or Baltimore. It’s still going to be Ravens-Steelers, and lately, that’s not good for Baltimore winning.

But it’s a very good win for the Eagles as the defense should feel some real confidence if it has to play a team like Detroit or Buffalo in a big playoff game this year.

It was still a “yikes” day from Tucker though…

Steelers at Bengals: Shootout of the Year (with a Predictable Winner)

The Bengals insisted all September that they were still the team to beat in the AFC, and yet here we are with the team at 4-8, likely not going to the playoffs for the second year in a row, and it’s another loss to Pittsburgh that could effectively be the final nail. Doing it in Cincinnati is just the cherry on top as the Steelers travel there so well like they did in the playoffs in 2005 and 2015 when they ended those dream seasons for the Bengals.

But they’ve done it to the Bengals in the regular season for a couple of decades too. I said the offense has always perked up against Lou Anarumo’s defense even in the Matt Canada era, and they were really special on Sunday with the first game for Arthur Smith and Russell Wilson.

It got off to a terrible start with George Pickens getting dragged down by the helmet, and it leading to a pick-six for the Bengals. It wasn’t DPI since the ball wasn’t in the air yet. It wasn’t illegal contact since it was within 5 yards. I guess they could have called illegal hands to the face, but I still put that more on Pickens for being soft on the play, and then he of course didn’t even try to make a tackle, choosing to complain to the ref for a flag.

But I didn’t imagine Russell Wilson would have the best game by a Pittsburgh quarterback since vintage Ben Roethlisberger after that start. It’s the most encouraged I’ve felt about a Pittsburgh offensive game in years, because they showed things that were different this week. They saw the complaints and flaws in Cleveland that the offense relies on too many deep shots, Wilson is getting too much heat, and they need to find a more consistent offense that can hit layups too.

Well, they did that Sunday. They attacked the Bengals repeatedly over the middle on short, quick throws to the running backs. Najee Harris got so many catches on one drive that he had to get oxygen in the first quarter. Better get used to it, because the Steelers may actually be using the middle of the field a little more going forward. But they definitely liked what they saw on tape against the Bengals, and Wilson was very accurate and decisive with the ball. He only took 2 sacks, and he finished 29-of-38 for 414 yards and 3 touchdowns, his second-highest passing yardage total in his career.

Wilson got to over 250 yards by halftime when Joe Burrow had just 100 yards. That doesn’t mean the defense was playing great, because they gave up way too many penalties on Joey Porter Jr., and they relied on a couple of splash plays to get 3 takeaways from Burrow, including two strip-sacks. The big one came in the fourth quarter when it was returned for a touchdown to take a 41-24 lead with 11:06 left.

But the Steelers played abysmal defense the rest of the way, and again, Porter Jr. was a main culprit as he is too grabby with receivers and got flagged for DPI in the end zone. On the last drive, he dropped a pick in the end zone that would have sealed the win, but Burrow instead got another touchdown pass. Keep in mind, that drive happened so fast because of a 49-yard pass to a wide-open Ja’Marr Chase with a blocker in front of him.

It really looked like the Steelers might blow a 17-point lead to one of the worst comeback teams in the league. Even the offense was blowing the situation as a holding penalty on a 2nd-down run stopped the clock with 1:54 left. That means if the Bengals could stop a 3rd-and-4, Burrow would get over a minute to score a touchdown unless Chris Boswell could nail a very long field goal (58 yards or so).

The Steelers put Justin Fields into the game for the first time, and you had to expect a run from him. Everyone should have saw that coming, and yet, he did exactly that and it still converted for a 7-yard gain. He even did the slide properly this time instead of coming up short to extend the game. But that’s a wrap in a 44-38 game, the highest-scoring game this season, no one expected.

At the same time, I feel much better about Pittsburgh’s chances to keep up in January if they have to outscore the likes of the Bills or Chiefs. But I also feel even worse that the defense is going to get destroyed like it has in every single playoff game since the 2017 season. Even with some of their best front seven players creating 4 sacks and 2 fumbles, this defense still allowed 31 points. That’s poor.

But after the first loss with Wilson to Cleveland last week, I can’t imagine anyone will still question the move from Fields to him after this game. Wilson was in vintage form in this one.

49ers at Bills: San Francisco Melts in the Snow

This is exactly why you shouldn’t trust a warm-weather team playing in the snowy elements of Buffalo in a game like this. Yes, the 49ers didn’t have Trent Williams and Nick Bosa, but Brock Purdy returned, and there are still a lot of really talented players on both sides of the ball with a coach who is supposed to be a genius.

Yet the 49ers turned in a lifeless, mistake-heavy performance in another 35-10 rout that has dropped them to 5-7, and they may not recover from this one. They also lost Christian McCaffrey again, and with the way he pulled up on his own, we may not see him again until 2025.

But even without Williams, there were running lanes to be found as both defenses struggled to get traction on the field that was quickly covered with snow that started just before kickoff. That also slows down the pass rush, so even Bosa might not have been that huge in a game like this against a quarterback as hard to sack like Allen.

But the fact is Allen took a backseat on this night where he only had to throw 17 passes. The running backs picked up just a hair under 200 yards as James Cook even broke a 65-yard touchdown on a 1-play drive. The Bills opened this game up in the third quarter when the 49ers blew their shot to make this competitive at 21-3 when Kyle Juszczyk fumbled at the goal line as the team struggled with ball security all night and just looked generally unprepared.

Meanwhile, the Bills have a player like Mack Hollins walking to the stadium barefoot, and he caught a touchdown in this game. But the final nail in the coffin was when Allen threw an off-target pass to Amari Cooper, who fought with the defense before pitching a lateral to Allen, who dove for the score, essentially completing a touchdown pass to himself (but no reception credit). That made it 28-3 and that was a wrap as Purdy couldn’t even throw for 100 yards to his more talented receivers. Purdy even fumbled on an unforced error to set up a short field for Buffalo’s last touchdown.

It looks like the 49ers are going out sad, and while Kyle Shanahan may deserve an injury excuse for missing the playoffs this year, you can’t tell me 38-10 and 35-10 in consecutive weeks with these types of performances is not worth criticizing given the star power still on the field.

Texans at Jaguars: Houston’s Not Beating the Allegations

Why is it even when the Texans win there still feels like a loser quality to it? This game was marred by the cheap hit by Azeez Al-Shaair that gave Trevor Lawrence a concussion, which led to him posturing on the field in a scary scene.

I hope they drop a monster suspension on Aziz Al-Shaair … legit tried to knock the head off Trevor Lawrence. As dirty as they come. pic.twitter.com/idoKxh3XNt
— Megs (@Rad_Megss) December 1, 2024

I say suspend his ass, because that looked very intentional, and apparently he’s got a history of being a dirty player.

Azeez Al-Shaair punches Roschon Johnson who wasn't even in the game pic.twitter.com/s7rM7qzHJv
— Dave (@dave_bfr) September 16, 2024

But dumbass @DRyans59 assured us that todays incident (no, not when he punched a player earlier in the season)

Had NOTHING to do with Al-Shaair’s character or who he is as a person.

Just a guy making illegal, career altering hits, grabbing throats, and punching people. https://t.co/jdMbv2S3k6
— Bad Benny (@HereREGOagain) December 2, 2024

But guess what? Even though the Texans were up 23-6 with 12:00 left and Mac Jones, one of the worst comeback quarterbacks in NFL history, was in the game, the Jaguars still made Houston sweat for the win. Jones led back-to-back touchdown drives to make it 23-20 with 3:31 left, a bad trend that’s happened multiple times to the Texans this year.

Fortunately, they kept the ball on the ground with Joe Mixon, who was able to hit the big runs to get the last few first downs to put the game away. But I want to see what the league does to Al-Shaair. All these little penalties and fines that are supposed to protect the quarterbacks but don’t actually stop the hits from still happening. Let’s see some real punishment like docking him his last 5 game checks this year.

Chargers at Falcons: Kirk Cousins Is a Tampa Bay Defense Merchant This Year

Man, Kirk Cousins played the Tampa Bay defense twice this year as if his family’s lives depended on him being great. He threw 8 touchdowns to one pick in those games, he had the 500-yard game, and his 276 yards in the rematch was also his third-highest yardage game with the Falcons.

I don’t want to act like those are his only big games this year as he shredded the weak Cowboys’ defense, and he had that good comeback moment in Philadelphia. But the Tampa Bay games are definitely building up his season stats, especially after he threw 4 picks in a rough 17-13 loss at home to the Chargers here.

Cousins was picked on 3-of-4 drives to end this game, which was always within reach. One of Cousins’ picks was returned for a touchdown in the third quarter, which is how the Chargers took the lead for good.

I thought Justin Herbert would have a big passing game with J.K. Dobbins out, but he threw for just 147 yards on 23 attempts, and Ladd McConkey had 117 of those yards in a huge game for the rookie. But it’s not like the running game stepped up for Herbert. It produced 12 carries for 55 yards for him.

The defense led the way here as the offense only had 187 yards. Meanwhile, the Falcons had 350 yards, but they were 3/14 on third down and the four picks. Definitely a winnable game that was thrown away by the Falcons.

Cardinals at Vikings: The 10-Win Team No One Is Talking About

The Vikings are now 10-2, winners of five straight, and it feels like no one talks about them because of the allure of the Lions and Packers in the same division. But they’ll get a rematch with those teams at the end of the season, they already won in Green Bay, and this division is far from decided.

Minnesota broke expectations again by being able to overcome a 19-6 deficit in the second half behind quarterback Sam Darnold, who continues to play well. He was sacked 5 times in this game, matched his leading rushers with 22 yards on the ground, but still drove 70 yards twice for critical touchdowns in a 23-22 comeback win.

Aaron Jones made up for another fumble by catching an open touchdown for the lead with 1:13 left. The Cardinals weren’t able to get a first down as it was not a great game for Kyler Murray, who was picked twice in the quarter, including a desperation play on 4th-and-10 to end it at 23-22. They only needed a field goal, but now Arizona (6-6) is second in the NFC West.

The Vikings could have what it takes to shake up what people are starting to bill as an inevitable championship game between the Lions and Eagles.

Seahawks at Jets: 41 and Done

Aaron Rodgers turns 41 today (Monday), and he looked every bit that age and more in Sunday’s latest loss to the Seahawks. Apparently, the Jets are the first team to be favored in 9-of-12 games and have a record as bad as 3-9 SU. They found a way to blow their fourth lead in the fourth quarter this season, but this game had a few critical turning points that largely went against the Jets.

Up 21-7 in the second quarter after a kickoff return for a touchdown, the Jets had a chance to really put the dagger through the Seahawks, who fumbled on the ensuing kickoff. But after Rodgers missed Garrett Wilson on a pass, the refs missed a delay of game, and Rodgers’ pass was intercepted by Leonard Williams, who rumbled his way for a 92-yard touchdown, reportedly the longest ever for a 300-pound player. That made it 21-13 in a situation where it looked like the Jets would go up 28-7.

The Jets never scored again. Breece Hall wasted a goal-line stand by fumbling, which led to a Seattle field goal to make it 21-19 in the fourth quarter. The Seahawks were later stuffed on a 4th-and-1 run that was negated by a horse collar penalty. They finished that drive with the go-ahead touchdown instead with 5:31 left, giving Rodgers plenty of time to get a touchdown in a 26-21 deficit.

But the drive was painfully slow, and things quickly went haywire after the 2-minute warning. Rodgers took a sack and faced a 4th-and-15. Naturally, his pass fell harmlessly incomplete to end the game. Rodgers finished 21-of-39 for 185 yards, which will drop his career-low YPA (6.4) this season even lower.

Big win for the Seahawks, who are 7-5 and in first place in the NFC West.

Colts at Patriots: Marathon Drive Produces Rare Win in New England

The Colts had not won in New England since 2006, a memory of better and far more relevant times for this team. For both teams, obviously. But the Colts had lost their last 7 trips to Gillette Stadium, so it is a welcome sign that Shane Steichen is now 2-0 against the Patriots after also beating them in Germany in 2023.

This game had more scoring, though it sure didn’t look like Anthony Richardson was going to surpass 100 passing yards for the longest time, and those fears about him only doing well on scripted drives came up again as he was having a mess of a game on drives that didn’t begin each half.

It looked like things were going New England’s way again once Drake Maye led a go-ahead drive for a touchdown to take a 24-17 lead, then corner Christian Gonzalez picked off Richardson with 7:59 left. That was lights out in the old days for the Patriots, but not anymore.

The Colts forced a three-and-out, and Richardson took over with 5:34 left and 80 yards to go. Old-school football. But it was mostly passing from Richardson until the Colts moved their 19-play march into the red zone, then he started getting more designed runs. After calling five straight runs, the Colts put the ballgame on 4th-and-3 on Richardson to make a throw on time, and he delivered with the touchdown to Alec Pierce with 12 seconds left.

That’s a solid situation to go for two, which the Colts also converted with Richardson powering his way in for the 25-24 lead. But we also have to reconsider this strategy with the way teams are setting up field goals anymore. Getting to start at the 30 is a huge bonus, and the Patriots still had timeouts. Even with a rookie quarterback and some low-level weapons, the Patriots managed to run 3 snaps in 11 seconds (hometown clock operator?) to move the ball 20 yards to midfield and at least give kicker Joey Slye a shot at a 68-yard field goal, which would be the longest in NFL history.

This is the same kicker who shanked a 67-yard field goal against the Chiefs in 2020 when he was with Carolina. He’s also a kicker who blew a 25-yard field goal earlier in this game, but from 68, he was straight down the middle. It just came up a yard or two short.

Joey Slye came THIS CLOSE to hitting a game-winning 68-yard field goal on the final play against the Colts. Wowzers. Would have topped the NFL record for longest kick by two yards. #Patriots pic.twitter.com/6hyPBUBHYx
— John Breech (@johnbreech) December 1, 2024

That would have been an amazing kick, and it does make you want to think twice about 12 seconds being long enough to avoid a finish like this when you go for two. But I guess if you don’t think you can win in overtime, this is what you do.

I’m still not convinced Richardson is the real deal for the Colts, who are hanging in the playoff hunt at 6-7, but at least this drive and the one against the Jets are encouraging.

Buccaneers at Panthers: Bryce Young Did His Job Again

One of the more encouraging stories in the last month has been Bryce Young playing like an actual NFL quarterback. Has it been great? Not quite, but getting production out of him, getting him to score 20 points in four straight games, and seeing him deliver a few clutch drives is absolutely huge given he’s spent most of his career as someone who might not sniff 20 points in 3 weeks combined.

Frankly, he should have had this game won against Tampa Bay as a 5.5-point underdog, but they gave it away again. Young stepped up with a great 25-yard touchdown throw to Adam Thielen with 30 seconds left to take a 23-20 lead. But in today’s NFL with the kickoff putting teams at the 30 and so many kickers capable of hitting from long distance, it’s really hard to defend that kind of lead. It’s not like the old days.

Sure enough, Baker Mayfield shrugged off a pretty poor game where he was hit hard multiple times, and he got his offense into field goal range with three productive completions and a scramble. See kids, you can fire off five scrimmage plays (plus the field goal) in 30 seconds if you have three timeouts.

Chase McLaughlin was good from 51 yards out to send the game to overtime. But he wasn’t good from 55 yards on the first drive of overtime, and I have to question the decision to kick that long attempt. First, it doesn’t win the game. It only gives you a lead and puts the opponent in that rare air of four-down football without a real time constraint.

Then it’s not like McLaughlin is a stud kicker. If he misses, you’re giving Carolina the ball at their 45, and a field goal wins the game for them. It’s 4th-and-7 at the Carolina 37, so you probably don’t want to go for it that far. I might just punt or try the hard count and punt there. Make Young drive a long field while being constrained to 3-down football.

The Bucs’ defense bailed out the rest of the team, because the Panthers looked like they were going to get a game-winning field goal after another brilliant catch from Theilen to the 34. But on the very next play, Chuba Hubbard was stripped on a great forced fumble by Nelson.

Bucky Irving had the huge day, but it was Rachaad White who put it away with a 38-yard run. McLaughlin was good from 30 yards away and the Bucs escaped with the 26-23 win to stay tied in the NFC South with Atlanta at 6-6 (tie-breaker still favors Atlanta).

A very close call that would have me worried the Bucs aren’t going to be good enough to run through this softer spot of the schedule after all to win the division. But it might not matter if the Falcons are going to keep playing the way they have against non-Tampa opponents.

Rams at Saints: The Drought Continues

One record streak ended and another streak continued in the Rams’ 21-14 road win over the Saints. First, I had no idea the Rams had an NFL-record 129 game streak of scoring in the first half. That ended with this one as they trailed 6-0 at the half, so that record is now within the sights of the Ravens, who are up to 124 games.

If you include playoff games, the Ravens just broke the record with a 102-game streak, surpassing the Rams (101 games). To the surprise of no one reading this, the Rams were shut out in the first half of Super Bowl 53 against the Patriots, so this technically wasn’t the first time a Sean McVay team did this. Just never in the regular season before Sunday.

At least they made up for it this time with three touchdown drives in the second half. But that left the door open for Derek Carr to finally lead the first fourth-quarter comeback win of his Saints’ career. He threw a perfect pass for a 28-yard touchdown to MVS, the savior of this receiving corps right now, and Dante Pettis (he’s still around?) caught the game-tying 2-point conversion to tie the game at 14.

But Stafford got on a hot streak and threw a touchdown to Puka Nacua to regain a 21-14 lead with 8:54 left. The Saints were putting together a drive that got very run heavy, and after losing Taysom Hill to an injury, they went to Alvin Kamara on three straight runs that brought up a 4th-and-3 at the LA 9 with just over a minute left as this drive was fixing to take up almost the last 9 minutes.

You can already sense the doom to come, and sure enough, Carr held the ball long enough for Jared Verse to get to him and force a game-sealing incompletion (nearly a strip-sack). I’m not sure anyone was open but Carr’s limited mobility hurts there as he had no chance to escape from Verse, who should be the DROY front-runner.

Guess the Saints will just have to wait another week to pull off a 4QC win.

Titans at Commanders: Early Knockout

Go figure. The Commanders struggled for the last three games on offense, and the Titans came into this game with the No. 1 defense in yards per drive allowed. Before you could blink it was 28-0 with the Commanders scoring four straight touchdowns to start the game. A couple were set up on short fields after the Titans fumbled twice, a problem for them this year.

But this was a nice bounce-back game for Jayden Daniels, who had 4 total touchdowns and worked on the short passing game to protect those ribs in a 42-19 win. The bye week comes at a great time to get healthy for the stretch run into the playoffs for this team. It’s still possible they could have that first 11-win season in the salary cap era.

Next week: It’s the last of the byes, so with six teams off, we’re peaking early with Packers-Lions on TNF. Should be a good one. I’ll be watching to see if the Steelers take the Browns more seriously this time in a game they really need to win if they want this division title with much tougher games to follow. Seattle-Arizona rematch is also in close timing with the first game, and that could go a long way in determining the NFC West winner. Chargers-Chiefs on SNF is bound to be interesting for obvious reasons. Monday night is just seeing if Cooper Rush can improve to 2-0 against Joe Burrow for two of the most disappointing teams in the league this year.

2024 NFL Stat Oddity: Week 12

November 25, 2024 ~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

We knew Week 12 didn’t look good on paper. But sometimes those games produce some of the best endings, and that happened in the NFL’s early Sunday afternoon slate with arguably the best witching hour of the season. The Bears, Commanders, and Panthers were all in the process of pulling off insane comebacks to tie the Vikings, Cowboys, and Chiefs, and somehow, they all still lost.

In fact, Sunday’s only fourth-quarter lead change was in the wild Texans-Titans game with the mayo-loving Will Levis, and that’s not a reference to his ejaculation video.

https://twitter.com/ScottKacsmar/status/1860940283791217014

We had our first double-digit favorite lose a game outright in 2024 with Washington (-10.5) falling in epic fashion to the Cooper Rush-led Cowboys. With Washington and Houston (-7.5) both losing Sunday, that makes 19 games this season where a team favored by at least 6 points lost. There were 23 games all last season, playoffs included, with 10 such upsets coming after Thanksgiving, so we should see that number exceeded this year. This ties 2020 (19) and is already more than 2022 (16), but it happened 31 times in 2021, so maybe it won’t be a record-setting season for upsets in that regard.

Still got the big one to come Monday night (Chargers-Ravens), and given we’re about to go two weeks without a team winning after trailing by double digits, that’d be a perfect game to end the drought. The question is which team do you trust more to blow the lead? The Chargers have history, but maybe things are different under this Harbaugh, and the Ravens have blown plenty of multi-score leads since 2022.

Looking forward to it, but so far, only 6-of-12 games have had a comeback opportunity this week.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Chiefs at Panthers: What Kind of Kansas City Team Are You?

Every Kansas City season in the Patrick Mahomes era has been a unique team that brought a different approach from the previous year. The offense was never more explosive than in 2018, and the defense was never stingier than it was in 2023. But the hope that the 2024 team would be the first truly balanced, elite Chiefs team on both sides of the ball looks to be a pipe dream at this point.

The offense keeps trending up, and the defense has just played its two worst games of the last two seasons in the last two weeks in Buffalo and Carolina. But it’s one thing to struggle with Josh Allen in your eighth matchup with him since 2020. Having to scrape out a 30-27 win against Bryce Young in another low-possession game where each team had eight drives is just painful and worrisome.

The good news is the Chiefs are 10-1 and have the best finisher in the league in Mahomes, who had no problem leading his fifth game-winning drive of 2024 (career high) with his legs again providing the pivotal play with a 33-yard scramble. He finished with 269 passing yards, 3 touchdowns, and 60 rushing yards as the offense looked as good as it has all year against a truly bad opponent.

The bad news is the Chiefs look like a team that is becoming fully dependent on its quarterback and skill players to lead the way to victory, and that style doesn’t win championships in the NFL.

You can’t trust the offensive line anymore. Never mind their gross share of the 10 penalties for 91 yards the Chiefs had, they also let one of the worst pass rushes in the league sack Mahomes 5 times, something he’s only had happen one other time in his career. His passing was sharp from start to finish, but those sacks prevented the Chiefs from ever leading by more than 14 points.

Then there’s the defense, which made Bryce Young look like a blossoming star with big throws down the field as he threw for 263 yards in the best game of his career. They only sacked him twice, and he was able to deliver a game-tying touchdown drive with 1:46 left. I think you have to be optimistic about Young for maybe the first time ever if you’re Carolina after this game.

Having said that, I do think the penalty on the Chiefs for the hard hit on the 2-point conversion was a bullshit call. He hit him too hard to knock the ball out. Why should that be a penalty? He didn’t lead with the head on it. Terrible call, which allowed the Panthers to run it in from the 1-yard line with Chuba Hubbard to tie the game at 27.

But that’s another game where the defense flat out choked with a chance to end the game or at least get the offense the ball back. It happened in Buffalo last week on the 4th-and-2 touchdown run, it happened in the last 6:00 against Denver where the 35-yard field goal would have lost the game for Kansas City, and it happened against Tampa Bay when they let Baker Mayfield tie the game late instead of shutting the door.

That’s a month of this defense not closing in crunch time, and now they’re allowing a lot of points and yards too. It’s not a good sign going forward. We can talk about injuries, but it’s not like the offense hasn’t had its share of those this season. They’re still improving with Noah Gray having another 2-touchdown game after having one in Buffalo too. Even Xavier Worthy didn’t do anything screwy this week as the Chiefs also had no turnovers in this game.

I think you can see after the 31-yard game-winning field goal by the new kicker that the Chiefs weren’t that thrilled about winning this game this way. Maybe that will become the identity of the 2024 Chiefs. Whether they’re playing the Bills or Panthers, you can count on the margin for error to be tiny, and they’re playing with fire on a weekly basis.

They may need to get burned a few more times before January to get it out of their system. But it looks like we can put the “elite defense” to rest in Kansas City. They had a good run since 2023, but it ended this month.

Cowboys at Commanders: Under Bettors in Absolute Shambles

What the hell was that? Cowboys-Commanders is the first game in NFL history where neither team scored more than 3 points by halftime and still ended with 60 combined points. The previous record was a 1979 game (Saints at Buccaneers) where a scoreless first half led to a 42-14 win for the Saints.

Needless scoring is a good way to describe a lot of this game, which was a defensive slugfest/offensive shitfest for over three quarters. I guess we can’t take a Kliff Kingsbury-coached offense seriously once November strikes and the tape roll gets that long, because I thought for sure the Commanders would look fresh and rejuvenated after their layoff following the loss to the Eagles. Also, Cowboys’ defense is another reason.

But this was an ugly game as it took Jayden Daniels taking off for a 17-yard touchdown run to get a touchdown on the board in the third quarter. But the Commanders missed an extra point, and while that particular point didn’t come back to haunt them since they converted a 2-point try later, it should have been a sign of things to come, and arguably a decision maker for coach Dan Quinn and Kingsbury.

The defense didn’t do the best job of stopping Cooper Rush from using CeeDee Lamb on short throws and putting together scores to take a 13-9 lead with 8:11 left. After the Commanders fumbled a completion, it was 20-9 on a short field touchdown with 5:08 left. That finally motivated Daniels to play with a no-huddle tempo and desperation, and he threw a touchdown to Zach Ertz with a 2-point conversion to make it 20-17 with 3:02 left.

But that’s when the game really took a turn as Turpin nearly lost the ball on the kickoff before regathering himself for a 99-yard return touchdown. Down 27-17 with 2:49 left, it looked like Daniels would do something miraculous after his kicker came through with a 51-yard field goal, the defense forced a three-and-out thanks to a timely sack, and he got his chance in a 27-20 game 33 seconds left.

He was 86 yards away from the end zone, but this isn’t unlike his Hail Mary drive against Chicago. The difference is this time he threw a good pass to Terry McLaurin that should have been a gain out to midfield, but McLaurin had the angle, the speed, and he kept it going all the way to the end zone for the touchdown with 21 seconds left. What a miracle score.

But now you have to ask should they go for 2? The Cowboys have a kicker (Brandon Aubrey) with huge range and they had one timeout left, but 21 seconds is pretty solid time to defend any drive there. I think there’s an argument they should have just gone for it, but they took the extra point for granted with a shaky kicker, and sure as shit, he failed them by missing it wide left.

I guess we can scratch off Daniels from the future LOAT list too. But then a short reprieve when the Cowboys got silly on the onside kick and returned it for a 43-yard touchdown instead of going down to end the game.

Why do you go down? To avoid what happened as Daniels completed a 6-yard pass to Ertz, then set himself up for a 2nd Hail Mary attempt this season. But this one was farther away from the end zone with 58 yards from the line of scrimmage, and Daniels didn’t step into it with quite as much room and power as he had against the Bears. The pass was shorter this time and it was ultimately intercepted to finally end this silly game at 34-26.

Pretty excruciating way to lose a historic game, but the Commanders are going to have to start games better, and I’m not sure what the fix is with the running game. Brian Robinson Jr. left early with an injury and Daniels ended up leading the team with 74 rushing yards. They need to find him a bit more help there.

Titans at Texans: Houston Really Does Have a Problem

How flawed is Houston right now? I’m using a clean f-word too for that sentence. Will Anderson Jr. was back in action and helped a pass rush to 8 sacks of Will Levis, who also threw a pick-six to fall behind late in the third quarter. The Titans even muffed a punt in the fourth quarter to gift the Texans 3 more points, Nico Collins had 95 yards and a touchdown, and the Texans still lost this game 32-27 at home.

I wish I could say this division game made no god damn sense, but the fact is it did. Painfully (Houston was my preseason pick to challenge Kansas City’s three-peat), it made sense.

Houston is the first team to blow 4 fourth-quarter leads this season. They have created a very unique defense where the pass rush is great at turning pressures into sacks, and sometimes they force a lot of incompletions too. Though, I’m starting to think playing Anthony Richardson twice and one major off-day from Josh Allen (9-for-30) heavily contributed to those completion rate numbers.

But if your quarterback can survive the pass rush of Houston, that secondary can’t hold up against wide receivers to save their lives. That’s how Will Levis was able to complete 18-of-24 passes for 278 yards and 2 touchdowns. Sure, he took 8 sacks and threw a pick-six to Jimmie Ward, but he still hung in there and made enough big plays, including a 70-yard touchdown pass that put the Titans ahead in the fourth quarter, 30-27.

Next, we have to believe that Tennessee may be a legitimately good defense that is hard to move the ball against as they were very stingy with yards this year. But their scoring numbers aren’t so hot because of the bad field position they’ve been done in by with turnovers (Levis!) and the special teams. That Detroit game especially killed their stats.

But in this game, they held Joe Mixon to 22 yards on 14 carries. Totally shut him down, and the Texans have been running it so well this year. That put more pressure on C.J. Stroud, and my preseason MVP pick has regressed in his sophomore season. He took 4 sacks, threw a couple of picks, and struggled with this defense.

However, he didn’t screw up on the crucial drive of a 30-27 game. In fact, Collins should have had another touchdown to take the lead, but much like Monday night against Dallas, it was called back for an illegal shift. Then a holding penalty killed the drive, but kicker Ka’imi Fairbairn should have been able to tie the game with a 28-yard field goal with 1:56 left, right?

Wrong. He was wide left, much like how he missed a 27-yard field goal against the Jets when the Texans trailed 14-10 on Halloween. It’s one thing for Fairbairn to miss a 58-yard field goal against Detroit, but this was a 27-yard field goal and it wasn’t blocked. Make the damn kick. I’m not going to act like Fairbairn has always been a choker, and he did make a 54-yard field goal in this quarter, but I do have articles dating back to his 2017 season where I said he was unproven and not reliable.

The only good news is the Titans had a bad drive after the missed kick, so Stroud got it back with 1:29 and one timeout left. The bad news is he was at his own 8, but it was still doable. However, he took a sack back to the 1-yard line, then it was a safety after Harold Landry sacked him in the end zone on 3rd-and-17 as he tried to make a play. That made it 32-27 and effectively game over after the onside free kick wasn’t recovered by Houston.

Just a brutal loss for Houston, which had a shot to start stacking wins. This is already the third time in Stroud’s career that his kicker missed a clutch field goal in a loss, and again, that’s not counting the 27-yard miss in the Jets game since they were down 14-10 at the time. Just not in his future to beat the LOAT, I guess.

But he needs to pick up his play. So does this defense under DeMeco Ryans, because they are frighteningly easy to hit big plays against. It’s been a problem all season.

One of many problems in Houston right now. They’re just lucky they play in the AFC South, but we’ve seen bigger collapses before from this division.

49ers at Packers: Brock Purdy Probably Worth a Few More Points Than Credited For

You can do a pretty good job finding the dud of the week in the NFC by finding which game Tom Brady is calling for FOX. The NFL clearly had high hopes for this one as the centerpiece of the late-afternoon slate, but the injuries for the 49ers are just not complying as they played this game without their top quarterback (Brock Purdy), edge rusher (Nick Bosa), and offensive lineman (Trent Williams). That’s to say nothing of not having their best wideout (Brandon Aiyuk) and defensive tackle (Javon Hargrave; out since Week 3) either.

It’s just looking like 2020 all over again for the 49ers where injuries destroy them. They had some chances to make this a game, and it certainly wasn’t all backup Brandon Allen’s fault, but it’s not like they lost 38-10 because of some huge quarterback disparity. Jordan Love only threw for 163 yards in this game. Yes, Christian Watson dropped a wide-open touchdown again, but even with that, the 49ers were missing tackles left and right on Josh Jacobs, who had 106 yards and 3 touchdowns on the ground.

Meanwhile, Christian McCaffrey is allergic to the end zone this year and he finished with just 31 yards on 11 carries. What ever happened to building the offense around the run and CMC? Oh, right. I guess they’ll blame that on not having Williams.

It was just a really poor performance on both sides of the ball for the 49ers, and if they can’t get those three key players back for Buffalo next week, don’t be surprised if the scoreboard looks like déjà vu on Sunday Night Football.

Cardinals at Seahawks: Mike Macdonald’s Defense Is Good Again?

I liked a low-scoring game, but Christ, 16-6? We’re back to late September when the Seahawks were 3-0, first place in the NFC West, and the question was is Mike Macdonald a legitimate Coach of the Year if he’s fixed this defense into playoff form, or has it just been the offensive schedule? Well, the losses started piling up against better opponents (Giants withstanding), and we were turned off by this defense, which suffered some injuries.

But after holding down the 49ers in San Francisco last week and owning the Cardinals, who had a bye, to just 6 points in this pivotal game, you have to say the defense is shaping into form again.

But the defining feature of these NFC West games have been blowing double-digit leads in the fourth quarter, and I swear it was going to happen again when Geno Smith threw an abysmal interception with a chance to add to his 13-3 lead to start the fourth. Keep in mind it was a third down too, so it’s not like he had to force it with a short field goal in his back pocket.

The Seahawks were only up 13-3 because of a horrific pick-six thrown by Kyler Murray on a fourth down in the third quarter. Again, just a lot of bad picks in the late-afternoon slate Sunday.

In a 13-6 game, it looked like another inaccurate throw by Geno was going to immediately lead to another pick and good field position, but it thankfully hit the ground. He shook that off by delivering his best drive of the game where he converted twice on third down. It led to a 50-yard field goal to make it 16-6 with just 1:56 left as the drive consumed 8:12. The rest of the NFC West – here’s looking at you, McVay and Shanahan – could learn from a drive like that by a team with a one-score lead.

That put the Cardinals into scramble mode, but the best they could do was a 47-yard field goal attempt with 15 seconds left. It was missed, so that was the game at 16-6.

It’s still a hard division to figure out as it may simply not have a good team this year, and the winner is just going to struggle at home in a wild card game against an NFC North runner-up like Green Bay or Minnesota.

But for now, Seattle is back on top and it was the defense that led the way this day.

Vikings at Bears: The Unexpected Passing Duel and One of the Best Failed Rally Attempts in History

I think it’s the rare game where both teams should feel pretty good about how they did with it ending 30-27 in overtime. It’s only the third game this season where both starting quarterbacks passed for over 300 yards.

Sam Darnold showed he can get through a road game without turning the ball over once, and still leading the team to 30 points despite Justin Jefferson having 2 catches for 27 yards. It was a huge day for Jordan Addison (162 yards) and T.J. Hockenson (114 yards).

Caleb Williams showed a lot of the playmaking ability that led to him being the No. 1 pick in the draft. The ball bounced his way a few times late, but he still made the plays to get two quick scoring drives to force overtime, and kicker Cairo Santos redeemed himself for last week’s block with a 48-yard field goal to go to overtime.

That late-game scenario was wild. I wanted to tweet about it but I was enjoying an early dinner during these frantic moments with the 1:00 PM games ending. I was going to say you could definitely argue the Vikings should go for a 4th-and-1 at the Chicago 7 at the 2:00 warning in a 24-16 game. If you get it, the game is over as Chicago was out of timeouts, and it was just 1 yard. If you don’t get it, you’re still up 8, ultimate cushion, and you have a long field to defend. Pretty envious situation.

But I was also going to add that if you can’t make a 26-yard field goal and defend an 11-point lead in 1:56, then maybe you don’t deserve to win. Well, I was wrong on that part, because the Vikings did botch the situation and still won the game.

They made the field goal to make it 27-16, but a long kick return put Williams at the Minnesota 40, a huge boost. They took their time to get the touchdown, but I like that more than the teams rushing out the field goal unit as we’ve seen too many times this year. I’d rather go for the touchdown, recover the onside kick, then complete one big pass to set up a FG, and that’s exactly what Chicago pulled off here.

Keenan Allen caught the 1-yard touchdown, D.J. Moore caught the 2-point conversion, and the Bears managed the hardest part of recovering an onside kick with 21 seconds left. One completion to Moore for 27 yards, a spike, and there was Sanots tying the game up from 48 yards.

That’s 11 points manufactured in the last 1:56, an incredible feat that I believe only two other teams have pulled off in a win since 2001, including the Bears in a game against Cleveland in 2001. The other such win was Joe Flacco leading the Jets back against Cleveland in 2022.

https://twitter.com/ScottKacsmar/status/1726691828404195828

But as much as I want to say head coach Matt Eberflus did something incredibly stupid in overtime to lose another close game, this one was really on the rookie quarterback living (and in this case) dying by the sword. On the second play of overtime after taking the ball first, Williams scrambled for an eternity before taking an avoidable sack that lost 12 yards. Throw in a delay of game after that shock and it was 3rd-and-26, leading to a three-and-out. He has to be better than that, but at the same time, I get it. He was trying to make a play as he did several times in the game. But he really screwed that drive up.

While Darnold immediately took a sack on the other end to start his drive in a second-and-17 hole, he got the offense out of it with Hockenson and Addison gaining 20 yards on two completions. Jefferson made a 20-yard catch to avoid arguably the least effective game of his career, and then Hockenson delivered the kill shot with a 29-yard catch to the 9. Romo made the 29-yard field goal to win 30-27, and these days, you can’t take any kick for granted, so good on him for not Blair Walshing things.

Maybe it’s not the kind of win that will endear the Vikings (9-2) to skeptics, but I think it was a good, gut-check win on the road. The kind of game you hope that J.J McCarthy can handle in the future, because Williams is going to give the Vikings some problems and scares if this game is any sign of the future. He just has to work on getting better at knowing how to get rid of the ball and when to take his chances. But he’s a rookie and he should improve on that.

Eagles at Rams: Trench Warfare

These are two recent Super Bowl teams in the NFC who got there in large part because of the talent they built in the trenches on both sides of the ball. But the Eagles have restocked well in that regard while the Rams are still lacking on both sides, especially for protecting Matthew Stafford and replacing a legend like Aaron Donald on defense.

It was never more evident than on Sunday night when Stafford had little time to hold the ball and had to deliver in a hurry to Kupp and Nacua, who made plays but not nearly enough to keep up with the Eagles. Even without DeVonta Smith, the Eagles still have plenty of speed and weaponry to drop 37 points, and that starts with huge lanes through blocking for Saquon Barkley to speed through.

The first half was competitive with the Eagles only leading 13-7, but Barkley changed that in a hurry with a 70-yard touchdown run on the first play from scrimmage in the third quarter. He added a 72-yard run with 2:44 left when the game was already in hand at 30-14, but that helped push him to 255 rushing yards to go along with 47 receiving yards for a grand total of 302 scrimmage yards.

That will put him in the MVP conversation for sure, and it looks like his odds have already shot up from +6500 at FanDuel as of Friday to +650 now. Can have that conversation about whether he deserves it another time. The Eagles-Ravens game next week should be huge for awards this season.

Lions at Colts: Workman Like Win for the Lions

The Lions aren’t going to wow you with the numbers this week, but they got the job done in a 24-6 road win in Indy. Hard to argue with holding the ball for 37 minutes, going 9-of-15 on third down, no turnovers, and holding Anthony Richardson to 11-of-28 passing. Well, maybe he held himself to those numbers again as consistent offense has been an issue all season, but the Colts never strung together enough plays to put any of their nine drives in the end zone.

Punting four straight times out of the half had to sting, because despite the decent numbers I just posted for Detroit, you have to accept that as a solid day by your defense against an offense this potent. They did sack Jared Goff three times, they didn’t give up a run longer than 17 yards or a pass longer than 27 yards. You have to manage more than two field goals at home. Simple as that.

Patriots at Dolphins: Tua’s Whipping Boys

It still bugs me that Tua Tagovailoa is the quarterback who gets to start his career 7-0 against the Patriots, because he would have struggled like hell to do this against New England in their heyday. But he had a huge game here with over 300 yards and 4 touchdown passes as Jerod Mayo’s defense just can’t cover receivers well this year.

It was 31-0 before the Patriots finally scored a touchdown on a 4th-and-15 miracle from Drake Maye. Throw in a defensive touchdown after a backup running back fumbled, and it was only mildly interesting as a 31-15 game with 10:10 left. But Maye was intercepted the next time he had the ball, leading to a 34-15 final.

The Dolphins (5-6) are playing better than a lot of teams right now, but we’ll see if they can steal one in Green Bay this Thursday night to maybe give themselves a legitimate shot at running the table and getting in the tournament. That has to be their toughest test yet with the way the 49ers and Texans have fallen off.

Broncos at Raiders: The Sweep Is Complete

The Broncos went from an 8-game losing streak to the Raiders in the 2020s to a sweep this season after taking care of business on the road in a 29-19 win to improve to 7-5. The turning point was a horrible interception by Gardner Minshew in the third quarter while the Raiders led 13-9. That set up an 18-yard field for Bo Nix to exploit, and the Broncos never trailed the rest of the way.

Minshew broke his collarbone, a season-ending injury, and he was replaced by Desmond Ridder, who coughed up the ball deep in his own end with 2:21 left, setting up the Broncos for another short-field score on a field goal to make it 29-19. They even saved the cover (Broncos -5.5) by sacking Ridder from the 1-yard line on the final snap.

I’d say I don’t understand why the Raiders didn’t immediately call their last timeout and kick a short field goal on a 4th-and-1 before trying the onside kick, but this is Antonio Pierce’s team. Why would you expect competency?

Buccaneers at Giants: Can We Send the Giants and Jets to the UFL?

MetLife Stadium is where competitive, interesting football goes to die. I’m over the Jets and Giants – their existence, I mean. Daniel Jones is gone, and in the first game without him, the Giants fell behind 30-0 and were embarrassed by Baker Mayfield and company.

Tommy DeVito played worse than he did as a rookie, but at this point, why even try to win a game? Just tank, get a top pick, and fire the head coach while you’re at it. Nothing about this is working. Might as well find the next coach and quarterback who might be able to get a single target to Malik Nabers before halftime.

Next week: It’s Thanksgiving and the Dolphins-Packers game looks a lot better than it did a month ago, but you should know I’m backing the home team with a winning record, Mike McDaniel’s kryptonite. The Chiefs haven’t lost a home game since Christmas against the Raiders, so they better be ready for Desmond Ridder, Daniel Jones, or whatever the hell the Raiders start at quarterback on Black Friday. As for Sunday, got some interesting ones with Chargers-Falcons, Steelers-Bengals, and Eagles-Ravens at 4:25. The 49ers desperately need Brock Purdy to start SNF in Buffalo or that’s going to be a dud. Browns-Broncos is semi-interesting on MNF, concluding one long week of football.

2024 NFL Stat Oddity: Week 11

November 18, 2024 ~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

I hyped Week 11 as the best Sunday in the NFL this season, and it mostly delivered on that front. The three biggest games were all within one score in the fourth quarter, and it was certainly a pivotal day as Kansas City’s 15-game winning streak ended, and there’s a very good chance the Bills won’t have to worry about going on the road in the playoffs to play teams they’ve lost to like the Ravens and Texans.

But it was a strong week for home-field advantage in big games as the Eagles (Thursday night), Steelers, Bills, and Chargers all won at home in their key matchups. I know home-field advantage is only around 53% this season, which is better than the pandemic years, but it’s still below the usual standard of 57-58%. But I do think you’d still rather be at home than not, and I think it’s especially important for these teams still trying to break through the Kansas City stranglehold in the AFC and get to the Super Bowl like the Ravens, Bills, Steelers, etc.

We had eight games with a comeback opportunity, no team has come back from a 10-point deficit to win this week, but God knows the Chargers tried to give one away. We also had a walk-off blocked field goal for the second week in a row, so that’s wild. Pretty bad week for some kickers who were very recently considered among the best in the league, including Jake Elliott (Eagles), Justin Tucker (Ravens), and Evan McPherson (Bengals).

Still one game to go Monday night, but I think a healthier Houston team does give the AFC a legitimate six-team race for the playoffs. Kansas City’s three-peat path has gotten harder. But on the bright side, they can forget the undefeated talk. They weren’t going to win 26 games in a row to get a three-peat, and while that would be the ultimate achievement in NFL history, I can’t even imagine the pressure that’d leave on the team each week. Plus, they may not have to worry about trying to win in Denver in Week 18 against a Sean Payton (Mr. Bountygate) team that might need to make the playoffs with a win.

But really, this season might just come down to seeing if anyone can make the Lions pay for a Jared Goff pick parade by scoring enough points to beat Detroit in the Super Bowl.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Chiefs at Bills: Mahomes vs. Allen Chapter VIII – Josh Takes Manhattan

The first Kansas City loss since last Christmas is sure to delight many, but I’m not sure it makes that big of an impact on the season. No magical “blueprint” was shown on how to beat the Chiefs, and if it was, hardly any team but Buffalo is equipped to execute it. And I’m not convinced Buffalo can win this game in January, which could still very well be in Arrowhead as the Chiefs are still in first place, the same way it did here.

I’ll get to the Chiefs later, but let’s start by focusing on what Buffalo did well. They clearly care a lot about this rivalry, and we’ve joked (while probably being accurate) that Kansas City has been their Super Bowl in the regular season for four years now. Maybe five if you count the first meeting back in 2020.

But they clearly played a sharp game, and I think Josh Allen has seen Steve Spagnuolo’s defense and blitzes so much every year that he’s an expert at picking them apart. He knows when to run, when to get rid of it quickly, and when to hold it for the big play. That doesn’t mean he always executes, but he didn’t take a sack in this game, and he was money on a lot of big third downs, which is usually a must to beat the Chiefs. Buffalo was 9-of-15 on third down and that doesn’t include a huge penalty on a third-and-9 late in the third quarter on a drive that led to a touchdown and 23-14 lead.

But you saw Amari Cooper chip in a 30-yard one-handed catch on the first third down. Khalil Shakir held onto a clutch 3rd-and-8 pass even when he took a big shot at the end of it. Curtis Samuel played well as they got a touchdown on a pick play. The running backs couldn’t really get anywhere, but when it was 4th-and-2 at the Kansas City 26 with 2:27 left in a 23-21 game, there was never any doubt the Bills were going for it and who they were going to let make the play. Allen took off for 26 yards, and while I’m not sure I agree with Jim Nantz that it’s the play of the year, it’s a candidate as he finished the play for a touchdown to make it 30-21 with 2:17 left.

https://twitter.com/NFL/status/1858303241391427722

As I expected after another Lamar egg in Pittsburgh, Allen’s performance has him as the new MVP favorite (+150 at FanDuel) as the Bills go into their bye week. It was hardly his best game against the Chiefs as I’m sure he’d like to have the interception on a fourth down back, but he scored 30 points on 9 drives against a team that hadn’t given up more than 27 points in the last 30 games. That streak is toast as are many for the Chiefs.

It’s the first loss for the Chiefs since Christmas 2023, but every Kansas City loss is Christmas for members of the Tom Brady cult who have nothing else to celebrate these days. I just want to highlight one of them from Twitter here by explaining in detail why I think it’s silly to pin this loss on the quarterback as the Chiefs have far more pressing issues.

https://twitter.com/ScottKacsmar/status/1858314686078288122

First, there’s a reason Mahomes had a decent 63.3 QBR in this game despite throwing two interceptions and not registering a single rush attempt when we know QB runs inflate QBR more than anything.

It’s because Mahomes didn’t make many mistakes in this game.

Yep, he was intercepted on his first dropback of the day, a bad decision to force a throw instead of taking a sack. But like half of his picks this year, it came early with the maximum time to make up for it.

But this would be the 7th game this season where the Chiefs only had 8 or 9 offensive possessions in a game, so it does make every turnover mean a little more when you just don’t get that many chances with the ball because of the way you play ball-control offense and the way the defense isn’t as good at getting stops (turnovers or otherwise) as people pretend.

A problem not going away for the Chiefs that could ultimately lead to their undoing is the offensive tackle play. That led to some sacks and pressure in this game, which ended their second drive too. But Mahomes threw a touchdown to Xavier Worthy, who had a huge first quarter. However, instead of this being the turning point game for him, he did the same thing he did against Tampa Bay and didn’t get his feet in on what should have been a 30-yard play. Could the throw have been a little better? Yes, but it was in bounds enough that a competent receiver makes the catch. This can’t keep happening, and that killed another drive as the pressure came afterwards for another 3-and-out.

Mahomes followed Allen’s pick with a touchdown drive on a short field, but his defense still gave up a field goal to trail 16-14 at halftime. There was no scoring in the third quarter, but someone please let me know where I’m supposed to be criticizing Mahomes.

The Chiefs only had the ball four times after halftime. Was it Mahomes who got stuffed on a 3rd-and-1 run for another three-and-out? No, that was Kareen Hunt and the line. When Mahomes set up a 3rd-and-1 at midfield on a scramble, a holding penalty brought it back to 2nd-and-14, DeAndre Hopkins couldn’t come down with a good throw while being defended well, and that was another punt. I think without the holding penalty, Mahomes probably has a great shot of leading a go-ahead drive on this one.

Suddenly, the game’s in the fourth quarter and the Chiefs are down 23-14. Mahomes put together one of the team’s best drives this season as they never even faced a third down, avoided any penalties, and he threw his third touchdown to make it 23-21 with 7:53 left. Game on. Why they don’t play with urgency and tempo like that more often is beyond me.

But that’s usually the spot where the defense makes a play. Gets the ball back or at least holds them to a field goal. That’s also the spot where Allen usually makes some mistake like forcing deep balls when he shouldn’t, but none of that happened this time. He ran for a 26-yard touchdown on fourth down instead, and now it’s 30-21 with 2:17 and you need a miracle.

Again, I think Mahomes would have got a score (field goal or touchdown) here had it not been for yet another holding penalty to wipe out an 18-yard scramble to the Buffalo 34. Instead of converting, that made it 4th-and-13, and at that point you’re forcing a throw down the field to Kelce, who just stopped after one of the worst games of his career and watched the defender make the game-ending pick. But the game was already lost before that unless you think they’re recovering an onside kick and scoring again.

So, you tell me where I’m supposed to be finding so much fault on his play. A pick on the first play didn’t lose the game, and they were already losing by two scores when the last play happened. But I guess if you ignore every single thing in between those two plays, it was a pretty awful day for Mahomes.

A loss isn’t the worst thing in the world for a team that needs to be humbled sometimes. They have issues that need to be fixed. When the NBC crew did the halftime highlight for this game, all they mentioned was Mahomes’ weapons. Not a whiff about the offensive line or the defense not getting enough stops, especially with the game in the balance these last few weeks.

I actually think they have too many weapons in a way, and that Andy Reid is doing a poor job of trying to use everybody he can instead of finding who he can trust. A week ago against Denver, Kelce (8) and Hunt (7) had 15 catches between them. In this game, they had a combined 2 catches for 8 yards, and Hunt wasn’t even targeted. Oh, they still completed passes to 11 different receivers, including an eligible lineman, but I’m not sure that accomplished the right goals if Xavier Worthy is the only player who broke 30 receiving yards.

I’m not even sure bringing Pacheco and Hollywood Brown into the mix later is a good thing if they can’t seem to figure out how to properly use what they have. That touchdown drive in the fourth quarter showed how well they can still move the ball when they need to. They need to tap into that, because the days of an elite defense look to be over in Kansas City. Going to have to start scoring more points in games like this.

They don’t need an elite defense to win a Super Bowl, but they aren’t winning 34-30 games on the road in January with the way they’re playing this year. Last January, this defense was about to ruin the repeat by giving the Bills 24 points on just 5 drives. It took a couple of run stuffs and good fortune with Buffalo’s receivers not hauling in some deep balls to turn the tide that day, including a missed field goal by Tyler Bass.

On Sunday, the Bills didn’t make those mistakes, and Allen got the best of them again as he did in 2021, 2022, and 2023. We’ll see if it translates to January should they meet again. While the Chiefs will look different in that matchup, so will the Bills, and we’ll just have to see who makes the decisive plays that day.

Ravens at Steelers: The Rivalry Lives Up to the Hype

Sure, I liked the under, but this was even more on brand for Ravens-Steelers than I imagined. The 18-16 score is kind of Mike Tomlin’s jam as he won two playoff games (2015 Bengals and 2016 Chiefs) by that score, and this is third time in the last decade he’s won a game with six field goals and no touchdowns. The rest of the league has three in that time.

But you have to laugh at how these teams will play the same kind of “neither to 20, first to bleed loses” games no matter who the quarterbacks are and what their offenses are like. The Ravens had a high-flying offense this year and it didn’t matter. The Steelers were scoring a lot and moving the ball well under Russell Wilson and it didn’t matter.

These teams made each other fight for every yard, and it wasn’t pretty, but it was damn entertaining, and once again the Steelers made more plays. The Ravens started the game on the wrong foot with a Derrick Henry fumble, something you rarely see. Isaiah Likely also coughed up a bad fumble before halftime deep in his own end, Justin Tucker is apparently washed as he missed two makeable field goals, the Ravens had 12 penalties, and rookie linebacker Payton Wilson stole an interception from the hands of Justice Hill in the fourth quarter. The Ravens were incredibly sloppy in this game.

That’s not to say the Steelers were sharp. While they held the ball for over 36 minutes, they were 4-of-16 on third down and couldn’t finish in the end zone even once. While Russell Wilson threw a handful of passes away due to pressure, he picked the worst moment ever to force a terrible throw in the end zone, which was intercepted with 9:23 left when the Steelers could have kicked a short one to take an 18-10 lead. Fortunately, the Payton Wilson pick happened a few plays later and the Steelers eventually did go up 18-10. But this was Wilson’s worst game at quarterback this season, and it’s a good thing the defense had his back.

But on their 12th and final possession, the Ravens finally put together some third-down conversions and completions to wide receivers. The drive ended with a Zay Flowers touchdown with 1:06 left, but the Ravens needed a 2-point conversion to tie. You just knew they would keep the ball in Jackson’s hands, but it was still surprising to not see Henry on the field. I’m not sure the Ravens really knew what they were trying to do on the play, and Jackson was forced to throw it up for grabs before taking a sack:

https://twitter.com/BleacherReport/status/1858257907093262337

Jackson is now 5-for-12 on 2-point conversions in the fourth quarter (2-for-8 when trailing) in his career. That’s why I would have liked to see them score in Kansas City on opening night since you know they were going to go for the victory with a 2PC, and you know they’d go to Jackson as they always do. But it’s hard to say their success rate is reassuring in these moments, and this reminded me of the 2021 game in Pittsburgh where T.J. Watt got to Jackson on the game-deciding 2PC in a 20-19 win for the Steelers.

But the game wasn’t over since the Ravens had all three timeouts left. The Steelers brought in Justin Fields on 2nd-and-9 and had a good call with the QB keeper, except he made an awful decision when he slid too early and was a yard short, bringing up 3rd-and-1 instead of clinching the win. That slide rule is something that coaches need to teach these quarterbacks better. It’s over once you start the sliding motion, and there was enough room for Fields to win the game there.

The Steelers had some major issues with 1 yard to go Sunday, but with the game on the line, they gave it to Najee Harris and he grinded it out for the win. The Steelers are now 8-1 against the Ravens since 2020 and most of them have looked like some variation of this.

It’s a tough loss for the Ravens since it’s so hard to say “we’ll get them next time” when seemingly each meeting looks something on the order of this. If the playoffs started today, it would be Steelers at Ravens in the wild card round too in the 6-3 matchup. That’s not ideal for the Ravens nor is being a wild card team in general.

But in one of my favorite stats this year, the Ravens have already lost to all the same teams or quarterbacks they lost to last year (Gardner Minshew, Browns, Steelers, and Chiefs).

https://twitter.com/ScottKacsmar/status/1858259679844942334

A great win for the Steelers (8-2), but I think it’s also a reminder of why they excel against the Ravens and struggle so much with teams like Buffalo and Kansas City. They have to score more against those quarterbacks and they just struggle to stop them better since they are more decisive passers than Jackson, who was again looking confused by this defense in his fifth meeting with them. He was far from the only problem as the Ravens shit the bed in a variety of ways, but his play against this defense doesn’t inspire much confidence.

Bengals at Chargers: Jim Harbaugh’s Memorable Island Game Debut Teases Chargering Before Winning the Game

Let me just paste in my framing of this game from Friday night’s predictions:

Bengals-Chargers: I see this game going one of two ways. It could be a return to Chargering for Jim Harbaugh’s home debut in prime time, meaning a game where everything goes great for a half or three quarters, then they implode and lose to a hungry Cincinnati team that has been close most weeks and needs to avoid going 4-7. But the Bengals also are bad at winning close games like that. So, maybe it’s just a validation that the Chargers are different under Harbaugh, and he’s going to frustrate Joe Burrow with his defense that still hasn’t allowed more than 20 points in any game, and Justin Herbert is going to carve this defense up with his new receivers.

Yep, it was Chargering, but things are different under Jim Harbaugh, so the team still escaped with a 34-27 win. It was also classic Bengals, putting up some stats and making a rally effort only to come up short again in a close game to fall to 4-7. Their brand might be the only brand that can outdo Chargering right now.

Funny how some games play out exactly like you expected. I knew better than to say anything definitive about the Chargers when they were up 27-6 in the third quarter and Justin Herbert was shredding that defense. I’ve seen this movie too many times. Before you know it, the Chargers are giving up touchdowns on fourth downs, Herbert is fumbling after the ball hits a defender’s shin, Burrow is getting short fields, and just like that it’s tied at 27.

But then I’ve seen this before from the Bengals too often as well. You get a chance to take the lead and probably win the game, and you start misfiring on throws. You start getting stuffed in the backfield, dropping passes, penalties, etc. The kicks are longer, and Evan McPherson is not as good as he was a couple of years ago. He misses from 48 yards with half a quarter to go, he misses from 51 with 1:48 left after a couple more Burrow incompletions didn’t make it easier.

But it’s not like the Chargers made it look easy. Herbert flirted with some dangerous throws, missed some wide-open throws, and it ultimately took six possessions before the Chargers finally added to their 27 points with another score. I was starting to think this one was headed for a 27-27 overtime tie or a defense to win it on a return touchdown.

But with 45 seconds left at his own 16, Herbert finally stepped up with some great throws to Ladd McConkey for 55 yards, and J.K. Dobbins finished it off with a 29-yard touchdown run that I’m not sure he really expected to score on as he said he was. You also see why teams like to go down there and kick the field goal, because after scoring with 18 seconds left, the Bengals still had time to set up a very realistic Hail Mary at the end.

I’m not saying Dobbins screwed up by scoring the touchdown that was there, but it’s not the ideal way to finish a game like this and we saw it play out. But the Chargers were able to bat down the Hail Mary and hang on for the 34-27 win. Their 7-3 start ties 2018 for their best 10-game start in the last 15 years.

Watching these teams make so many mistakes when it was 27-27 is a good reminder of why it’s hard to take either seriously for the postseason. But by winning this game, the Chargers have a great shot of being there while being a problem for any team as long as they avoid Chargering as much as possible.

But the difference is they didn’t lose this game like they have in the past. That has to count for something.

Packers at Bears: Walk-Off Blocks Are Pretty Cool

Matt LaFleur was 10-0 against the Bears with every win by at least 7 points. He’s 11-0 now, but this was definitely the hardest win yet. The Packers could not get the Bears off the field on third down that often (9-of-16) as the new offense in the first game after firing Shane Waldron had success. They also held the ball for nearly 37 minutes, so the Packers were just 1-of-5 on third down and Jordan Love only threw 17 passes.

But Love still found Christian Watson on some big plays, resulting in 150 yards on 4 catches. Love was also in a scrambling mood in the fourth quarter, and his legs got him in the end zone with 2:59 left. But it was only a 20-19 lead after the 2-point conversion fail, which feels like every 2PC is failing these days in the NFL.

That opened the door for the Bears to win on a field goal, and for all the justified criticism Caleb Williams has been receiving, this was a huge moment for him. He delivered too as he shook off a pair of sacks at the two-minute warning and overcame a 3rd-and-19 situation.

But let’s not forget that the Bears are horrible in close games under Matt Eberflus. I can understand wanting to be a little conservative at the Green Bay 30 with 35 seconds and one timeout left when your rookie takes a lot of sacks. One there could be deadly.

But to just run for 2 yards and accept the fate of a 46-yard field goal with the so-so Cairo Santos as your kicker? I’m not a fan of that. Sure enough, the Packers pulled off the 46-yard block to win the game just like the Chiefs did to Denver last week.

That has to be one of the worst ways the Bears have ever lost to their bitter rival. But I have to say I like this if we’re going to see endings like this more often. Kickers were getting too good that you just have to pray they’d miss on anything under 50 yards. But instead of hoping the kicker chokes, why not do something about it and step up with a game-deciding block? I’m cool with that.

It also doesn’t hurt that Packers-Chiefs was my preseason Super Bowl pick and they’ve been the biggest beneficiaries of making these blocks this season. But the key thing is they made the block happen. They earned it.

Seahawks at 49ers: Some Wunderkind

Does anyone want the NFC West this year? Another game and another blown lead by the 49ers. But the 20-17 final is misleading as this was a low-possession game, so it was more offensive than that score suggests. But just when you think the 49ers are going to win after taking a 17-13 lead on a touchdown pass to Jauan Jennings, they give up another game-winning drive to Geno Smith after already doing so this season to Matthew Stafford (Rams) and Kyler Murray (Cardinals).

Geno was 0-6 against this team since 2022, but after his run game failed him on a 4th-and-1 earlier in the quarter, his defense got him another chance with 2:38 left, and his 80-yard game-winning drive was as good as any in his career. He had just 18 seconds and no timeouts left when he made the bold decision to scramble for the end zone, and I’m surprised he made it the full 13 yards without getting blown up and ending the game short of the end zone.

https://twitter.com/KoleMusgrove23/status/1858302134795862120

Awful defense. But remember when the 49ers were going to get better with Christian McCaffrey back? Their five longest plays in this game gained 12-to-22 yards, Jennings had four of them, and a Brock Purdy scramble for 13 yards was the other one.

The 49ers (5-5) are not a serious threat anymore. Not like this.

Jaguars at Lions: Nearly Offensive Perfection

Look, if the Jaguars want to fire Doug Pederson after this, I’m not going to say they are wrong. It’s almost certainly going to happen after the season, so if they want to use him as the scapegoat for one of the worst defensive performances in NFL history, then go ahead. It’s not like they were going to win this game with Mac Jones as the biggest underdog (+13.5) of the 2024 season, but Christ, get a stop on the other side of the ball.

Jared Goff went from throwing 5 picks last week to leading 7 straight touchdown drives in this game. He had a perfect passer rating on 29 attempts with 412 yards, so that’s a huge stat line. The only other quarterback I know to go a perfect 7-for-7 at leading touchdown drives was Josh Allen in the 2021 playoffs against New England.

The Lions took Goff out after the seventh touchdown, they scored a field goal on their eighth drive with Hendon Hooker, then they ran out the clock (all 6:45 of it, mind you) on their 52-6 win on the ninth drive.

That’s pretty close to offensive perfection. They won’t get as much credit as Buffalo given the lousy opponent and it wasn’t a playoff game, but this is up there for pure domination. The Lions had 38 first downs and 645 yards. They were 6-of-10 on third down and 3-of-3 on fourth down.

The Lions shouldn’t have an easier game the rest of the season, so this might be their most impressive form yet, but it’s a strong game from a historic perspective.

Colts at Jets: Anthony Richardson’s First Comeback Against a Familiar Foe

In his rookie season in 1998, Peyton Manning had a big moment when he led the first fourth-quarter comeback win of his career against the Jets, who had a great team that year. Well, Anthony Richardson won’t ever touch Manning’s legacy, which I can say with confidence, but he had a much-needed performance against the Jets after getting the starting job back from Joe Flacco.

Richardson was able to complete 20-of-30 passes for 272 yards, he only had one turnover, and he came back from a 24-16 deficit in the fourth quarter with a couple of touchdown drives. He ran in the go-ahead score with 46 seconds left and the defense was able to make it hold up for a 28-27 win.

For Aaron Rodgers, it was a brutal start again after falling behind 13-0. They had the lead late once again, but the Jets blew their third lead of the season. There was enough time to set up a winning kick, but we know those haven’t gone well for them this season either.

What has? The Jets are 3-8 and going into the bye week in one of the most embarrassing seasons in team history, which says a lot given their history.

Falcons at Broncos: Unexpected Blowout of the Week

Whoops, I thought this would be a 1-to-7 point game and it ended up being one of the biggest blowouts of the season with Denver taking it 38-6. I guess we can’t take it for granted that every Kirk Cousins game is supposed to be close as this was already the third time they’ve had a game decided by 18+ points this year.

But this was just an ass-kicking from Denver, and any concern of how they’d bounce back from the upsetting Kansas City loss was wiped away early with Bo Nix having his best game yet with 307 yards and 4 touchdowns on 28-of-33 passing. That’s some Drew Brees type of numbers.

The Falcons (6-5) are still in decent shape in the NFC South, but they might just be fodder for an NFC North runner-up this year. As for the Broncos, they’re eying the No. 7 seed and possibly better. It’s a hard team to figure out but they have had some impressive wins already, and this was another for sure.

Raiders at Dolphins: Good Tight End At Least

Wasn’t expecting the pinnacle of tight end play to come from this game, but Brock Bowers (13-126-1) and Jonnu Smith (6-101-2) showed up for their teams in this 34-19 win for the Dolphins.

In fact, Smith’s long second touchdown put the game away just when it looked like the Raiders could maybe get the ball back late in a 24-19 game. Look, the Raiders need a new coach and quarterback in 2025, but at least they have a heck of a weapon in Bowers. Not doing anything for their complete inability to run the ball, but he can play.

Browns at Saints: Taysom Hill Carrying Derek Carr Again

I have no clue why the Browns (-1.5) were a road favorite in New Orleans, but someone underestimated Tayson Hill having one of the greatest games in NFL history. The Stormin’ Mormon ran the ball 7 times for 138 yards and 3 touchdowns, which is already one of the craziest stat lines in NFL history. Only 21 players are known to have scored 3 rushing touchdowns on no more than 7 runs in a game, but Roland Hooks (1979 Bills) is the only one known to have surpassed 45 rushing yards as he had 70 in a game where he scored 4 touchdowns on 5 carries. But Hill blew that away with 138 yards, including 33 yards on what was technically the game-winning touchdown to break a 14-14 tie with 13:22 left. Hill later iced it with a 75-yard touchdown run with 2:26 left.

Just on that alone it’s a historic stat line. But Hill also caught 8-of-10 targets for 50 yards to lead the team in catches. He completed 1-of-2 passes for 18 yards and an interception, so maybe leave those plays to Derek Carr. But on top of all of that, Hill had a 42-yard kickoff return. That’s 230 all-purpose yards. Maybe 248 if we’re counting the pass completion.

What the hell? The funny part is this is Derek Carr’s second game-winning drive with the Saints, and he was 0-for-3 by success rate to start the quarter before Hill took off for the winning touchdown in a game they’d win by 3 touchdowns. Last year, Carr’s only game-winning drive was a touchdown pass thrown by Hill to break a 17-17 tie with the Bears.

So, that’s two game-winning touchdowns where Hill did the heavy lifting instead of Carr. But what a game for one of the most unique players in NFL history.

Also, I’m absolutely stunned that Jameis Winston passed for 395 yards and the Browns only scored 14 points despite not committing a single turnover. They ended up missing two field goals and turned it over on downs twice, so that at least helps make some sense of that one.

But Hill’s uncanny success? It’s hard to explain. Marquez Valdes-Scantling scoring another big touchdown for the Saints after the Chiefs didn’t want him back and the Bills couldn’t wait to get rid of him is also another strange development with the 2024 Saints.

Maybe the Pope did bless them. Does the Pope support LDS? I don’t know.

Vikings at Titans: Your Standard Ho-Hum Win for a Second-Place 8-2 Team

The Vikings continued their tour of the AFC South, but compared to last week’s 12-7 squeaker in Jacksonville, this was a much more comfortable, low-drama 23-13 win against the Titans. Neither team could run the ball a lick, but Minnesota limited the turnovers to a bad pitch to start the game, shook off Will Levis hitting a 98-yard touchdown pass in the third quarter, and didn’t give up any other touchdowns the whole game while also sacking him 5 times.

Rams at Patriots: Defense Closes for McVay Again

I swear Sean McVay’s Rams can never just close games with the four-minute offense. Even after taking a 28-13 lead into the final quarter, it was still 28-22 in the final minutes as Drake Maye gave them a lot to handle with a 30-of-40 passing day for nearly 300 yards. Another first down could have iced this one, but the Rams ended up punting from the New England 35, which is sadly on brand for McVay in these moments.

Fortunately, the defense had his back as they picked off Maye on a 3rd-and-13 desperation heave with 1:47 left to ice the win and get the team back to .500. A sack coming out of the two-minute warning just blew that drive up for the Patriots, but what’s happened to the defense in New England? That’s supposed to be Jerod Mayo’s specialty and his unit was carved up again by Stafford for four touchdowns from an offense that couldn’t get in the end zone once on Monday night against Miami.

Next week: Week 12 looks like that rare week where you’re waiting for Monday night (Ravens-Chargers Har-Bowl) for the best game. But I can see they didn’t have much left for a follow-up to Week 11 as six teams are on a bye and it really shows. I guess Steelers-Browns could be decent on Thursday night if the Steelers bring their usual “small game” approach to it and Jameis shows up dealing. 49ers-Packers has lost luster but might be able to save the Sunday afternoon slate. Not very intrigued by Rams-Eagles on Sunday night. But a light week before a football overload on Thanksgiving is not a bad idea to be honest. They can’t all be loaded.

2024 NFL Stat Oddity: Week 10

November 11, 2024 ~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

Week 10 in the NFL was almost an overcorrection to last week when favorites dominated the slate from start to finish. In Week 10, favorites were just 3-10 ATS with MNF pending.

But at the end of the day, the teams with the great records were largely winning by the skin of their teeth. It started Thursday night when the Ravens came back from a 21-7 deficit to beat the Bengals in a 35-34 game that came down to a 2-point conversion (and the refs turning a blind eye to Baltimore penalties on it).

Then Sunday brought some even wilder results with the Chiefs (trailed 14-3) and Lions (trailed 23-7) needing field goals to go their way at the end to improve to 17-1 collectively. The Steelers also had a 10-point comeback in the second half to beat the Commanders on the road, and even Kyle Shanahan’s 49ers had a comeback and game-winning field goal in Tampa Bay.

In all, 8-of-13 games had a comeback opportunity and there were seven game-winning drives in Week 10. That made up for the horrible late-afternoon slate that had no drama whatsoever.

It was a good build-up for Week 11, which could be the most crucial week of the 2024 regular season.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Broncos at Chiefs: 8-and-One Hell of a Block to Start 9-0

I guess the Chiefs just hate playing at 1:00 p.m. ET as their last such game was on Christmas last year (a Monday), which was their last loss against the Raiders. But the Chiefs are just showing off now. They have won so many games in a variety of ways in the Patrick Mahomes era, but Sunday’s 16-14 escape over Denver is a new achievement unlocked.

This was not your typical Kansas City letdown game in that there wasn’t a single turnover by either team. No obligatory fumble. No interceptions, unlucky bounce or not, from Patrick Mahomes. It wasn’t a penalty fest either with 9 total for 45 yards.

This was going to be Kansas City’s first loss in 15 games because the Broncos were just a little better on third down against the best third down offense in 2024. The Chiefs delivered some huge plays on that money down, but again, the Broncos were just a little better at converting and forcing pressure on Mahomes to end drives short of the end zone. Bo Nix threw both of his touchdowns on third downs in the second quarter to take a 14-3 lead as he wasn’t phased by Steve Spagnuolo’s defense in his first game against them. That division familiarity with good coaching helps.

But again, there was just enough pressure getting to Mahomes, who took 4 sacks, on money downs that the Chiefs were limited to 16 points. They had a couple of big fourth-down conversions, but they rightfully settled for a 20-yard field goal to take a 16-14 lead with 5:57 left.

In that situation, you don’t expect to never see the ball again, but that’s what happened thanks to Harrison Butker’s kickoff landing short of the kicking zone, which is a penalty that puts the ball at the 40 now. You would think of all weeks, where over 74 million Americans voted for a male rapist over a qualified woman, that Butker would be on point with everything.

Normally, you expect the Chiefs to make the big stops on defense, but it didn’t happen this time. They gave up a trio of third-down conversions, and the last one from Nix to Sutton for 13 yards on 3rd-and-6 should have been the dagger with the Chiefs out of timeouts. You run the clock down and kick the short field goal to win 17-16. Simples.

The Broncos appeared to do it right, and they were going to end the Kansas City winning streak. It was in the bag. But that’s when kicker Wil Lutz was shocked to see Leo Chenal power through the line to block the kick to win the game for Kansas City:

HE BLOCKED IT! FOR THE WIN!

pic.twitter.com/A4qIvLTycC
— Sports Radio 810 WHB (@SportsRadio810) November 10, 2024

Epic finish, and Chenal was also the player who blocked a San Francisco extra point in the fourth quarter of the Super Bowl to keep it 16-13. So, we can say this is the luckiest win yet for the Chiefs during the 15-game winning streak as they needed to block a kick that has a solid 94% success rate in the NFL.

We can definitely say that. But to say only the Chiefs win like that or that this makes Mahomes the luckiest quarterback ever, well that’s just some bullshit.

First, this was the second blocked 35-yard field goal on Sunday alone. The Saints blocked Atlanta’s 35-yard field goal before halftime in a game Atlanta lost 20-17, but not as many people were following that one. Blocking kicks this short is certainly rare, but again, we just saw one in the same window of games and I mentioned the player who did it (Chenal) also blocked an extra point (35-yard kick) in February’s Super Bowl.

Also, a block is never as lucky as an opposing kicker flat out missing a short kick. Let’s at least make sure we’re crediting Chenal for what he did here.

This is just the fourth time since 1994 where a team blocked a field goal of 35 yards or shorter in the final 2:00 of the fourth quarter in a game that was tied or a team trailed by 1-2 points:

11/7/1999: Down 14-13, Green Bay’s Ryan Longwell’s 28-yard field goal was blocked in a 14-13 loss to the Bears in the closing seconds, the closest example to Lutz vs. Chiefs.
10/19/2003: Tied at 13, Miami’s Olindo Mare’s 35-yard field goal was blocked at the 2-minute warning in what became a 19-13 overtime win for New England.
11/5/2006: Tied at 19, Dallas’ Mike Vanderjagt’s 35-yard field goal was blocked and returned 30 yards by Sean Taylor, and thanks to a facemask penalty on the return, it set up Washington for a 47-yard game-winning field goal as an untimed down in a 22-19 final.

There also were a few games in 1995-2005 where a short kick was blocked in overtime. But if you were in overtime in those years, the game just continued until there was a winner or tie. It wasn’t as do-or-die as the Denver situation Sunday.

So, it’s absolutely a rare finish, but the funniest outcome is that distance (35 yards) instantly reminded me of the Olindo Mare game I’ve tweeted about several times since I joined Twitter in 2011.

https://twitter.com/ScottKacsmar/status/130737154736394240

Not only did the 2003 Patriots block a 35-yard field goal by Olindo Mare with 2:00 left in a tied game, but Mare missed a 35-yard field goal on his own to start overtime. Back then, that’s game over, so that miss is the only reason the Patriots have a record 21-game winning streak to their name. That was Game #3 in the streak, and the misses allowed Tom Brady to throw an 82-yard touchdown pass to Troy Brown, the fourth-longest touchdown pass of his career.

That Mare double whammy for the 2003 Dolphins against New England is the only game in the 21st century NFL where a kicker missed two FGs of 35 yards or shorter in the clutch.

So, spare me the “only the Chiefs and Mahomes” rhetoric with this one. Brady still has the LOAT title locked up. But hopefully this close call will have the Chiefs prepared even better for their huge trip to Buffalo in what could be the Game of the Year in the AFC.

Lions at Texans: Goofed Around with 5 Picks and Won Anyway

In the battle of a top pass offense and pass defense, the defense kind of won, but the Lions somehow still won the game despite Jared Goff throwing 5 interceptions on the road. Goff had been completing over 83% of his passes for the last 6 weeks, but he was just 15-of-30 in this game against a Houston defense that has forced some crazy numbers this year for Josh Allen and Anthony Richardson.

But Goff’s pick parade had the Lions in a 23-7 hole at halftime with C.J. Stroud looking stellar without Nico Collins and Stefon Diggs. Unfortunately, the Texans repeated a lot of their sins when they nearly blew a big lead against Buffalo. Stroud started turning the ball over a couple of times too, and the Texans never scored in the second half.

Oh, there were chances. But Joe Mixon (25 carries for 46 yards) was stuffed all night, and Stroud didn’t finish the job. I think you have to seriously question the Texans trying a 58-yard field goal in a tied game with 1:51 left. It was 4th-and-4 at the time. The Texans already won that Buffalo game with a 59-yard field goal by Ka’imi Fairbairn, so that might have poisoned their thinking process on this one.

But that was not the same situation. That was at the end of regulation. If Fairbairn missed that kick, the game would just go to overtime. If he missed this one, which he did badly, the Lions got the ball at the Detroit 48 and were in business with 1:51 left as they did. There’s also the added benefit of going for it, converting, and possibly running out the clock to make the field goal the last play. That’s why I think Houston likely errored in not going for that one. A past win’s unlikely success potentially leading to a future loss.

The Lions got a little conservative on their ensuing drive too, and they even willingly kicked it on third down instead of trying to gain a few more yards for Jake Bates, who just narrowly made a kick from 58 yards to tie the game with 5:01 left. That one went to the right. This time, Bates was narrowly inside the uprights to the left as time expired on a 52-yard game-winning field goal, shocking the Texans in a 26-23 final.

https://twitter.com/Sandman7773/status/1855832515463757928

That’s about as close as it gets. Like the Chiefs, maybe the Lions are just the chosen team this year. You have to go back to that crazy Cowboys-Bills game in Buffalo on MNF in 2007 to find the last time a road team won after throwing five picks. The Cowboys recovered a late onside kick in that one to pull it off. The Lions were less dire than that, a real indictment on how poorly the Texans played offensively after halftime.

I think it’s safe to say neither C.J. Stroud nor Jared Goff will be winning MVP after this game, but it sure was an entertaining and dramatic mess I’d watch over most games this season.

Steelers at Commanders: In Russ We Trust

This was the game I was most interested in watching Sunday, and for the most part, it delivered with a 28-27 final. But despite all those points, I wouldn’t say the offenses and quarterbacks played that great. In fact, both quarterbacks completed 50% of their passes for about 200 yards and 3 sacks each.

But it was Russell Wilson pushing the ball down the field to his wideouts that made the difference as George Pickens had a great touchdown catch (among other highlights), and it was Mike Williams who delivered in his team debut with the 32-yard touchdown with 2:22 left to put the Steelers ahead for good.

Wilson just lives for those moments, and he might have had the go-ahead drive earlier had Jaylen Warren not fumbled at the 1-yard line. But it’s a tough loss for Washington, which led 24-14 in the third quarter. But the Commanders were just off on some throws by Jayden Daniels, who wasn’t as sharp as his reputation, and his receivers also just dropped some easy ones as there were plays to be had against the Pittsburgh defense.

But the outcome could have absolutely been different had old tight end Zach Ertz been better on a 4th-and-9 at midfield as Washington tried to drive for a winning field goal. Ertz cut the route off a yard too short of the marker, his initial forward progress was good for a first down, but he went backwards on his own, his knee went down before he was touched, and he didn’t get a good extension to pick up that last yard. So, the result was a turnover on downs even if it was really close, and had they ruled it a first down initially, it probably would have stood. But Ertz needs to be a little better there.

Washington still had every timeout left, so the game wasn’t over. But the Steelers sent their offense back out there on 4th-and-1 at the Washington 49 with the likely intention of trying to draw the Commanders offsides instead of actually going for it with 1:02 left. Shockingly, the Commanders bit hard for it quickly and that was enough to move the chains with the neutral zone infraction penalty. Game over.

But that’s the kind of game where you are happy to have someone like Russell Wilson, who lives for those moments, instead of someone like Justin Fields, who shrinks in them. Now we’ll see if the Steelers (7-2) can continue their upset streak against the Ravens at home next week in a very big game in the rivalry.

Vikings at Jaguars: Sam Darnold vs. Mac Jones in Crunch Time Is Pure Hell

A matchup between Sam Darnold and Mac Jones at quarterback is just wrong. It was bad in 2021, and it was even worse Sunday. Darnold couldn’t stop throwing picks early into the end zone, but the good news is the Vikings wised up in time to not let him do it again in the fourth quarter. They just ran the ball and kicked a 34-yard field goal to take a 9-7 lead with 7:14 left.

That’s usually not good enough to hold up in this league, but it is when Mac Jones is filling in for Trevor Lawrence on the other side. Jones had the game’s only touchdown run from 1 yard out, but that would be Jacksonville’s only score in the game as we were reminded of just how brutal Jones is in crunch time.

In the last half of this quarter, the Jaguars had the ball three times, and they ended each with a Jones turnover, including a fumbled snap and two picks before the Vikings ran out the clock in an ugly 12-7 win that could be a sign of more things to come for Darnold this season.

Christ, what a matchup. After the game, Darnold is now 4-17 (.190) at fourth-quarter comeback opportunities in his career while Jones is 2-14 (.125). Two of the worst to ever do it.

But any time I see a quarterback, and this is rare, turn it over three times in one quarter in these situations, I think about the fact that Peyton Manning went seven seasons with just 3 turnovers in losses in 4QC/GWD situations. He threw a Hail Mary interception against the 2003 Jaguars and 2007 Chargers (after Adam Vinatieri missed a 29-yard field goal), and he had a strip-sack against the undefeated Patriots in 2007. That’s it. Then, of course, the Tracy Porter pick-six happened in Super Bowl XLIV, but people acted like Manning always did that when it just wasn’t true.

But Mac Jones? He always does stuff like this. That part is true.

Bills at Colts: Buffalo Glad to Face Quarterback with No Future in Indy

It must have sucked for the rest of the Colts to play well enough to beat Buffalo, but Joe Flacco had other ideas. Not only did he start the game with a brutal pick-six, but he finished with three picks, a strip-sack, and he took a sack on a fourth down near the red zone where the Colts probably should have just taken the field goal in a 20-13 game.

Instead, they lost 30-20, and that’s with a garbage-time touchdown at the end. Just a miserable outing for Flacco, who I initially supported for starting by benching Anthony Richardson. But if these last two games are the best he can muster, they might as well go back to Richardson and see what he has.

Josh Allen had his first multi-interception game of the season, but it didn’t even matter since he still made enough big plays that Flacco couldn’t match on the other side.

It’s not the ideal performance for Buffalo a week before the Kansas City game, but it showed they can create a bunch of turnovers, which could give them a leg up in that one.

49ers at Buccaneers: Stop Drafting Kickers High

Christian McCaffrey made his 2024 debut for the 49ers, but he didn’t find the end zone, and his best contributions were in the passing game with 6 catches for 68 yards. But I’m more interested in the return of my San Francisco whipping boy, kicker Jake Moody.

Moody ultimately won this game, 23-20, with a 44-yard field goal as time expired, but if he did his job better earlier, then it wouldn’t have come down to that. Moody was 3-of-6 on field goals in this game, missing wide from 49, 50, and 44 yards. With the way kickers are crushing the ball this season from deeper distances than that, this simply isn’t good enough for any kicker, let alone one the team infamously used the 99th pick in the third round on in 2023.

I just don’t see a kicker like this lasting long in San Francisco. Fortunately, they had enough weapons to come back and win the game, but this was very close to yet another blown lead as Baker Mayfield had some incredible plays late in the fourth quarter to tie it.

https://twitter.com/NFL/status/1855713396089565354

That’s Nick Bosa getting a stiff arm from Baker, though one has to wonder if this was some Trump voter solidarity, because since when does Bosa not take a quarterback down there? Weird play.

It’s the kind of game where you wonder how much of a difference Mike Evans would have made for the Bucs, who had to settle for a tying field goal, which set up the 49ers’ shot for redemption for Moody on the final snap.

But let’s also add Ricky Pearsall to the list of impressive rookie wideouts in this class. He had a 47-yard touchdown and was big on the game-winning drive. The 49ers only had five players get a target in this game, but even without Brandon Aiyuk being one of them, it’s an impressive group.

Too bad the most talented roster in the league has one of the worst kickers.

Eagles at Cowboys: The Sun Going Down on Jerry World Early This Year

The Cowboys got a boost defensively from the return of Micah Parsons, but their offense totally wasted it with Cooper Rush looking like his body was crippled by arthritis. What happened to the quarterback who threw for over 300 yards in some past starts and had game-winning drives in this offense? He was awful on Sunday, and Trey Lance isn’t a great option going forward. But they should make that change if Dak Prescott is getting surgery Monday to end his season.

But everyone’s season in Dallas is technically over at 3-6. Jalen Hurts turned it over twice and took 5 sacks, and the Cowboys still lost 34-6 at home. That’s what happens when your quarterback just loses the ball like a feeble old man would, and speaking of feeble old men, Ezekiel Elliott coughed one up into the end zone too. Oh, even the sun betrayed Dallas again as CeeDee Lamb couldn’t locate a ball because the sun blinded him.

The Cowboys finished 17-of-29 for 66 yards with a pick and 3 sacks taken. What a product, Jerry.

Titans at Chargers: Our Consistent Chargers

With these teams like the Bengals, you don’t know if they’re going to score and give up 7 points or 35 points. At least the Chargers are consistent as hell this season. They’re going to score 17-to-27 points, and they still haven’t allowed anyone but Pittsburgh to score 20 points on them.

They can run the ball, Justin Herbert makes good decisions, and they just win fairly low-drama games. It happened again against the Titans, who got Will Levis back but still struggled to score even if he wasn’t a turnover machine this week.

Instead, that defense had Levis feeling constipated as he took 7 sacks but only lost 18 yards on those plays. I had to look it up, and Rick Mirer for the 1996 Seahawks is the only other quarterback to take 7 sacks and not lose at least 25 yards in a game on record. Mirer also had 7 sacks for 18 yards lost against the Chiefs. You never want to be compared to Mirer.

Meanwhile, Herbert only had to throw 18 passes, completed 14 of them for 164 yards, ran for a touchdown, and didn’t take a sack. Finally, he’s enjoying the “easy” wins the NFL has to offer from time to time.

Also, I despise Calvin Ridley. He’s going on the permanent ban list after jacking up my parlay where he’d hit his under in receptions (4.5) in a Chargers’ win. He just had to catch his fifth pass for his second touchdown of the day with 49 seconds left to make it a 27-17 final.

But that’s also the first time this season the Chargers had a game go over 39.5 points, so there’s that streak over with.

https://twitter.com/ScottKacsmar/status/1855893726268166575

Falcons at Saints: That Younghoe Not Coo

Everything was pointing against the Saints this week, but that was one of my upset picks as I know division games are weird, and the Falcons really struggled to put the ball in the end zone against the Saints earlier this year.

It happened again, and the Saints didn’t help them out with a pair of return touchdowns this time. Instead, they got two surprise touchdowns to Marquez Valdes-Scantling, who only signed recently after all their wide receiver injuries.

But the Saints didn’t do a good job of finishing this game, a familiar scene for them. They punted on 5-of-6 drives after halftime, but the Falcons couldn’t capitalize as kicker Younghoe Koo ended up missing three field goals, including a 46-yard field goal that hit the upright with 6:39 left. It would have tied the game at 20.

But Kirk Cousins was later picked by Tyrann Mathieu, and making it even worse was that he gave up the 2-minute warning in the process (clock at 1:59 after pick). The Falcons had all three timeouts to get the ball back after the defense did its part with a three-and-out, but that pick was costly, and Derek Carr saved the Falcons a lot of time with an incomplete pass on third down.

So, Cousins had one more shot from his 14 with 1:35 left. But an inefficient drive took too long, and Cousins ended up throwing short of the sticks on the last play, which was no man’s land, but it was also a situation where he needed to do something different than this:

https://twitter.com/GAFollowers/status/1855717819284857026

I know he couldn’t spike it since it was 4th down, but they got to get something more to the sideline to convert and take a shot at the long field goal. But given the way Koo’s day went, he probably would have missed that too.

At least the Saints have ended one of the most brutal 7-game losing streaks following a historic start.

Jets at Cardinals: Cooked

It’s hard to say what the nadir is for this Jets’ season as we thought losing to the Broncos in 10-9 game and losing to the Patriots would be pretty damn low. But they were dominated on both sides of the ball in Arizona in a 31-6 loss where you have to wonder if Aaron Rodgers doesn’t just retire after this mess of a season.

But this game had just 13 total possessions, and I’m not sure I’ve ever seen a game with a number so low that was such a blowout at 31-6. Usually you see a very close game with both teams scoring, but the Jets had two field goals, two punts, a lost fumble, and they turned it over on downs in the fourth quarter when the game was way out of reach.

The Cardinals only had five full possessions deep into the third quarter, and they scored 4 touchdowns and a field goal on them. I guess we have to acknowledge that the Cardinals are decent this season. Murray was 22-of-24 for 266 yards while rushing for a pair of touchdowns as only he can with his unique “scooting” style of runs.

Meanwhile, Rodgers looks every bit his age. He finished the game 6/13 for 31 yards on his targets to Davante Adams.

Patriots at Bears: They Are Who We Thought They Were

How are we in Week 10 and Caleb Williams looks like the worst rookie quarterback now? What exactly did they teach him during the bye week? Anyone can point to the opponent difficulty for the 3-game winning streak against the Rams/Panthers/Jaguars, but it’s not like Commanders/Cardinals/Patriots are a murderer’s row of defenses in 2024.

He took 9 sacks in this game. Isn’t that supposed to be what Drake Maye is facing on the other side? Maye was only sacked once and it didn’t lose any yards. He also threw for 64 more yards on 5 fewer passes than Williams, and he continues to be a more productive runner.

But what a bummer of a performance at home as the Bears were 1-of-14 on third down. That’s how you manage just a single field goal on 11 drives. The Bears didn’t have an official turnover in this game, but that might have been more fun than watching them punt 8 times in a 19-3 loss.

Giants at Panthers: Germany Can Keep Daniel Jones

With each week we should get closer and closer to not having to see Daniel Jones in a Giants uniform, especially not in an island game. I slept thru most of this one, but I saw him run for a touchdown to make things interesting in the fourth quarter before both backs turned it over. That includes Tyrone Tracy deflecting the ball to the defense in the red zone of a 17-14 game.

Then Tracy fumbled in overtime too, which makes you wonder if he’s just had enough of Jones’ shit and wants him out of town too. The Panthers were gifted a game-winning drive by just running it 3 times for 5 yards before a 36-yard field goal won the game 20-17 in overtime. That’s a little 2-game winning streak for Dave Canales’ team now.

New York (via New Jersey) football is truly the worst these days. But I’m not sure how they expect to grow the game in Germany when we’re clearly not sending our best even if they turn out to be low-scoring games that are close at the end like Colts-Patriots was last year.

But we really need to stop unleashing Daniel Jones on millions of people who just want to watch a good game.

Next week: Week 11 might be as good as it gets this regular season. Granted, most of the games look like shit on paper, but just think about the highlights. Commanders at Eagles for the first time this year on Thursday night for control of the NFC East. Ravens at Steelers is a monster game in the AFC/AFC North at 1:00 p.m. Chiefs-Bills is the huge 4:25 showdown. Even Bengals-Chargers on SNF could be pretty good and has importance in the wild card race. Not exactly sure which angle I want to write about this week, but I’ll have something about these games.

2024 NFL Stat Oddity: Week 9

November 4, 2024 ~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

When I tweeted that the NFL’s Week 9 Sunday action was the weakest this season, I was ignoring a few individual highlight plays I’ll link below in the recaps. But a great play does not make for a great game. I think in the end, it was the weakest for these reasons:

As I expected between Jordan Love’s groin and the rain, Lions-Packers did not live up to the Game of the Week hype it deserved under normal circumstances.
Favorites are 13-1 SU this week (10-4 ATS) with the 9.5-point favored Chiefs still to host Tampa Bay on Monday night.
Only the Saints (-7.5) lost to the Panthers, and is it ever really a big upset if Derek Carr is on the losing end? He also was getting roasted by Michael Thomas on Twitter during the game, so he was losing either way today.
Not only was Saints-Panthers the only upset, it was the only game Sunday with a fourth-quarter lead change, so that game stood out from the pack and it wasn’t anything special.
Sure, 7-of-14 games had a comeback opportunity and there were a pair of overtime games, but neither actually had a lead change, and the teams who came back late to tie it with a great touchdown drive still ended up losing in overtime.
The only other fourth-quarter comeback in Week 9 was the Jets on Thursday night against Houston, a game script that the Vikings largely followed in their 21-13 (same score) win over the Colts on Sunday night.

Not a very original week even if there were some cool plays.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Dolphins at Bills: Unexpected Game of the Week

I am so used to Miami bombing in these road games against contenders that I didn’t think much of this 5.5-point spread in Buffalo. But the Dolphins did play them tough there in both games in the 2022 season, and they had Tua Tagovailoa back at quarterback. He actually had one of the best games of his career in a loss as he completed 25-of-28 passes for 231 yards.

But the long drives by both teams magnified every mistake. So when Miami only gets 7 real possessions in the game, Raheem Mostert giving one away with a fumble at midfield is a bigger deal.

The Bills also felt that sting when Keon Coleman turned a catch into an interception by Jalen Ramsey in the second quarter. Maybe the turnover luck is starting to go south for Buffalo, but it still prevailed in this one after getting some key penalties on third down in the fourth quarter. The last one was just an incredibly stupid gift by Jordan Poyer, who hit a defenseless receiver on a pass that was going to be incomplete. That’s a season-ending type of stupid play given the AFC East records.

But when the Bills were stalled at the Miami 43, I was a little surprised to see Tyler Bass come out for a 61-yard field goal. He’s been struggling this season, he missed an extra point in this game, but they trusted him for the win. He absolutely drilled the kick too to give the Bills a 30-27 lead, which stood up after Jaylen Waddle had one of the worst lateral attempts you’ll ever see, which also cost Tua his passing over prop.

https://twitter.com/PropGeekZeke/status/1853189433006125547

Lions at Packers: Old School Football Wins

Again, I wasn’t expecting much from this game because of the wet field and Jordan Love’s groin injury. But I don’t want to act like the Lions beat up on an immobile starter who should have sat out this week. Love didn’t take any sacks in this game, he threw for 273 yards, but it was this killer pick-six before halftime that changed everything and made a 10-3 game a 17-3 game:

https://twitter.com/wingoz/status/1853206283093934350

I’ve watched that several times and I’m still not sure what the plan was for 2nd-and-1. Were they trying to set up a slow-developing screen for the RB? Should he just hit the tight end leaking out into the flat for the first down with under 40 seconds left? Every other receiver went flying down the field and out of reach, but this just looked bad and Love never should have thrown that one.

Then the Lions came out of the break with their last touchdown drive, and just like that they doubled scored on them to make it 24-3. Goodnight. Did Tom Brady sign a contract clause that every FOX game he calls has to be a boring rout?

The best Green Bay could do was make it 24-14 with 3:49 left. But Goff and the offense was able to run out the clock for another win, their third season in a row winning at Lambeau. Hopefully the Packers can return the favor in the rematch, but the Lions looked better prepared to handle the elements. They didn’t turn it over once against the No. 1 defense for takeaways. Meanwhile, Love had 3 fumbles (none lost) to go along with that pick-six as the slick ball was problematic for the Packers.

Broncos at Ravens: Denver’s Not Ready for This

Sunday was a litmus test for the Broncos, and it sure did not go well in a 41-10 rout. It’s one thing to beat teams like the Panthers, Raiders, and Saints, but the Broncos needed to show something here, and it ended up being a miserable day on both sides of the ball. They gave up a perfect passer rating to Lamar Jackson, who only had to throw 19 passes since his receivers were so open and ready for big plays, and Derrick Henry carved them up for another multi-touchdown day and 133 total yards.

But I wouldn’t say rookie Bo Nix was a disaster against this defense. He moved the ball, he even caught his first touchdown on a trick play, but the Broncos were 1-for-5 on fourth down, and that hurt. The first failure came early when Javonte Williams for some reason didn’t stretch the ball out on a fourth-down run, so he was ruled short on a challenge. That set up the Ravens on a short field and the rout was on.

Denver had 6 drives inside Baltimore territory (4 in the red zone) and only came away with 10 points. That’s just not good enough. Some defenses have done a decent job of slowing down the Ravens this year, but the Broncos were one of the worst against them. Guess it’s just not the same as playing Bryce Young, Spencer Rattler, the 2-headed monster in Vegas, or getting Aaron Rodgers in the rain.

The Broncos (5-4) may exceed expectations this year, but this team is still far from ready to seriously compete in the AFC playoffs. That’s what Sunday showed.

Chargers at Browns: They Really Did Give Justin Herbert a Defense

What does it take to get a game with the Chargers to 40 points this season? Even the 27-10 final in this one is misleading as the Browns scored a touchdown in garbage time. But if you thought Jameis Winston was going to get into a shootout with Justin Herbert like I did, we were dead wrong. Winston threw three picks as the Chargers repeatedly turned him away.

Meanwhile, what a game for Herbert. He threw for 250 yards and took 6 sacks in the first half alone, hitting on several big plays to his unheralded receivers. He barely had to do anything in the second half, but that’s the nice thing about having a defense and a running game you can rely on to close games.

The Chargers (5-3) are showing they can throw the ball when they have to, and the defense still hasn’t let anyone score more than 20 points this season. It’s an intriguing team for January.

Rams at Seahawks: NFC West Is a Mess

This game had me slipping in and out of a nap as I’d he awakened by the next killer Geno Smith interception, including a 103-yard return for a touchdown in the fourth quarter that gave the Rams a 20-13 lead.

https://twitter.com/NFL/status/1853226818276626684

Are you kidding me, Geno? He also took 7 sacks. But the Rams could not put this one away in a game where they had 13 possessions. I’d be curious about Sean McVay’s success rate in the 4-minute offense because it sure feels like he always plays it so conservatively and puts the game on his defense. Well, it almost cost them here as the Rams gave up the game-tying touchdown with 51 seconds left as Smith temporarily redeemed himself.

I thought the Seahawks might go for 2, but I guess they thought there was too much time left. So, they played overtime. I don’t disagree with the decision by the Seahawks to go for a 4th-and-1 at the Rams 16 in overtime with 7:19 left. They didn’t get it, but we saw the problem in that spot when the defense gave up another touchdown to Demarcus Robinson, so they would have lost the game anyway if they were up 23-20.

But that 103-yard pick-six was a killer and let’s not forget the Seahawks blew a 13-3 lead before that too. Just a missed opportunity to get to 5-4 in this mess of a division that is already filled with weird comeback wins like this game.

Colts at Vikings: What’s the Plan, Indy?

The Colts have not been a serious organization for several years now. I don’t get how you make a big stink about benching Anthony Richardson for Joe Flacco, then come out and look this uninterested in getting Flacco comfortable in the game. He had 10 pass attempts at halftime and 3-of-10 were to running back Jonathan Taylor, who never established the run with 48 yards on 13 carries for the night.

Flacco is a rhythm passer. He needs to get going early and he needs volume. They didn’t do that, so it’s no wonder they only scored two field goals. Their only touchdown was a bogus one on defense on a play that should have been flagged for hitting Sam Darnold in the face, but apparently he doesn’t get those whistles this year (see missed facemask vs. Rams last week).

Richardson could have scored 6 points and taken the loss too. But while I know the Colts use a lot of play-action with both quarterbacks, is that really a good idea for the older, slower Flacco to turn his back to this deceptive Minnesota defense he’s trying to figure out? I would have spread them out early with Flacco in the gun and take my chances with his receivers. But they just never got around to that until they had to, and the pass rush teed off on him.

On the other side, I think you see why the ceiling for this team with Darnold is probably a close divisional round loss. That’s still a hell of a lot better than the expectations for the 2024 Vikings, but he had 3 turnovers and 4 sacks in this game even if the fumble return was bullshit. That’s too many negative plays, and that’s going to cost you in January against a functional opponent (i.e. not the Colts).

Flacco infamously made it through his 2012 Super Bowl run without those big mistakes (thanks for that, Rahim Moore). I’m not sure Darnold can do it, but maybe getting Jordan Addison a nice touchdown and getting tight end T.J. Hockenson back in the mix will elevate this offense going forward.

Jaguars at Eagles: I Was Hoping This Would Be the Only Pennsylvania Choke This Week…

I’m not going to get on board with “fire Nick Sirianni” yet as I see that going around social media today. But I get it, in a way. The Eagles were up 22-0 and almost blew this game with a weird fumble touchdown on a play involving Saquon Barkley where he might have been down by contact but not really. The only blemish to this incredible day for Barkley with this unforgettable highlight:

https://x.com/CoachDanCasey/status/1853191583174107478

Then Jake Elliott couldn’t hit a 57-yard field goal late for the cover and insurance score, so Trevor Lawrence really had a chance in this one even though he led the offense to 1 first down and 16 net passing yards at halftime.

Fortunately, the defense put an end to this mess with an interception in the end zone as the Jags dropped another close game, 28-23. But this one really should not have been this close, and it’ll be interesting to see what happens going forward when the Eagles start playing those division teams like Dallas and Washington.

But hey, a win is a win, which is what I’ll say this week when Orange Caligula goes down too in Pennsylvania and many other places.

Raiders at Bengals: Clueless Team Cleans House

Leave it up to the Raiders to give up 5 touchdown passes (none were to Ja’Marr Chase) and make firing the offensive coaching staff, including coordinator Luke Getsy, the headline after a 41-24 loss.

Any blame for Antonio Pierce’s clueless defense that couldn’t contain Mike Gesicki? But the offense wasn’t good either as the 24 points were a mirage that included a pick-six and a garbage-time score to Brock Bowers.

But how does your offense ever build something when Pierce tries to bench Gardner Minshew every week? They’re onto Desmond Ridder now. Good luck with that. This is what happens when you start a season with the most embarrassing quarterback room in the league.

Bears at Cardinals: The Bears Are Who We Thought They Were

Tale as old as time: The Chicago Bears are struggling in the passing game with rookie Caleb Williams, who took 6 sacks and couldn’t move the chains on third downs.

But a new twist is allowing a 50-plus yards touchdown at the end of a half. The Hail Mary was one thing last week, but this time to end the first half, the Bears somehow gave up a 53-yard run right down the middle of the field to Arizona’s backup runner. How does that happen with 4 seconds left in the half? Does this team not have safeties to drop back as the last line of defense?

It could have been a 14-9 game at halftime with Chicago regrouping, but that just blew it open at 21-9, and the Bears never found the end zone. Oh, they gave up a safety in their own end with a penalty in the end zone later.

But I’m not sure what to make of Arizona yet. The Cardinals are 5-4, the only winning record in the NFC West. But it’s a volatile team in a volatile division this year.

Cowboys at Falcons: Deceivingly Close

I think “Deceivingly Close” would be a good title for a book about the 1996-2024 Dallas Cowboys and their attempt to get back to an NFC Championship Game. It sure doesn’t look like it’s happening this season as the playoffs are in doubt at 3-5.

Dak Prescott left the 27-21 loss with a hamstring injury that could linger, but the game didn’t even feel that close. The Falcons lost Drake London early in the game but not before he caught a touchdown. The Falcons held CeeDee Lamb to 47 yards on 8 catches.

Dallas only scored its last touchdown with 1:28 left to make it a one-score game, but it was over after the Cowboys didn’t recover the onside kick, something Atlanta needed to do against this team in that 2020 fiasco.

But the Falcons continue to look like the best team in the NFC South while the Cowboys are third best in the NFC East at best these days.

Commanders at Giants: Touchdowns at MetLife (But Not Enough)

If your quarterback hasn’t thrown a touchdown pass at home in 672 days, he probably shouldn’t have been your quarterback that long. That’s the case of Daniel Jones, who finally ended his streak on Sunday, but it still wasn’t enough in a 27-22 loss to the Commanders, who are now 7-2 behind the runaway leader for Offensive Rookie of the Year, Jayden Daniels.

It was another very efficient day for Daniels. While they actually made him punt this time, the Giants couldn’t stop Daniels on some key third downs, and that’s how the Commanders stayed a step ahead for the win even though the Giants were finally scoring for a change.

Saints at Panthers: Carr’s Masterpiece Afternoon

What a legacy-defining afternoon for Derek Carr:

Threw a couple of hospital balls that knocked Chris Olave and Juwan Johnson out of the game.
Got ripped to shreds by former teammate Michael Thomas on Twitter after the Olave play.
Wasted a 155-rushing yards day by Alvin Kamara as the offense struggled in the red zone and on third down (5-of-15).
Took a fourth-quarter lead, but flubbed the crucial 2-point conversion, which is why the game wasn’t tied late.
Only needing a field goal with 2:18 left, Carr couldn’t get past his own 46, turning it over on downs to one of the worst teams in the NFL.
The Saints are the first team to ever start 2-0 with 40-point games and go on a 7-game losing streak.
Carr is the first quarterback in NFL history to lose a start to 31 different teams.
The Saints are the only team without a fourth-quarter comeback win since the 2023 season started (0-4 in those one-score opportunities this year).
Chris Olave’s brother backed Thomas’ sentiment that Carr needs his ass whooped, and he said it’s not worth his brother’s health playing in New Orleans.

I wouldn’t be surprised if I woke up to see that Carr got coach Dennis Allen fired for a second time in his NFL career. What a mess in New Orleans.

Patriots at Titans: Drake Maye Has Some Josh Allen in Him

Thanks to Josh Allen, if a quarterback sucks in his first two seasons, we’re going to hear how he could be the next Allen and have a breakout season in Year 3. I’m generally going to be opposed to this, because Allen is an outlier, and his athletic profile makes him an even bigger outlier. People are also going to mischaracterize where he was in Year 2 as we’ve already seen with the 2024 Anthony Richardson comparisons.

But a player I might be willing to give a Year 3 grace period to is Drake Maye, especially when you consider how bare Bill Belichick the GM left the cupboards in New England. If you give this guy a competent team and a good coach, you never know what you might get as he gives off some Allen vibes with his athleticism.

In Tennessee, he played in his first full start that was close at the end, and while he didn’t pass the ball effectively, he ran 8 times for 95 yards, showing that dual-threat ability. But it was with the game on the line on the final play of regulation that Maye pulled off this stunner and clinic on how to extend the play and make it work for a clutch touchdown:

https://twitter.com/Patriots/status/1853180878353990084

Not bad for holding the ball for about 12 seconds. Unfortunately, the Titans held the ball a long time in overtime, kicked a field goal, and when Maye tried to answer that, he forced a deep ball on first down that he probably didn’t need to and that was easily picked off to end the game at 20-17.

So, he’ll never be the LOAT, he may never reach Josh Allen’s highs, but I see some potential here at least.

Next week: The regular season is already halfway over. Week 10 looks better and starts with an important game in Bengals-Ravens. Giants-Panthers in Germany is maybe the least serious pushing of the NFL product in decades. Broncos in Kansas City loses some luster after that performance Sunday, but never discount a division game’s chances for fvckery. Steelers-Commanders is absolutely a better game this year than Eagles-Cowboys will be. SNF is Lions-Texans, a game that could have been good with Nico Collins and Stefon Diggs, but I don’t think Houston stands much of a chance without those guys. Dolphins-Rams on MNF will hopefully come with some touchdowns.

2024 NFL Stat Oddity: Week 8

October 28, 2024 ~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

In the last couple of weeks, the NFL’s 2024 season was running low on upsets and lead changes. But like clockwork, a so-so Week 8 on paper delivered one of the best Sundays of the season. I even alluded to something like that happening this weekend in the Week 8 predictions:

“But yeah, I have low expectations for this week, which means it will probably be an epic Sunday of close games after so few last week.”

It was. We had 10 games with a comeback opportunity (after 12 in Weeks 6-7 combined), four games with a lead change in the fourth quarter, and we saw one of the greatest Hail Mary finishes in professional football history (and that came in the week’s lowest-scoring game).

It also reportedly was the day with the most catches by tight ends in NFL history, so that’s a good way to celebrate National Tight Ends Day. If only we had a few more good ones in the league right now.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Bears at Commanders: Game of the Week

I basically had the recap to this one written in my mind twice before having to discard it for the insane actual ending that took place.

First, when it was 12-7 Washington, I was going to say that no matter who you put at quarterback, these teams are destined to play ugly, low-scoring games like this. A 12-7 final was the score between these teams in 2022 on a Thursday night game.

But the Commanders’ inability to finish any drive for a touchdown was hurting them put this one away even if Matt Eberflus’ team is the worst in close games. Jayden Daniels may have missed some throws he’d hit if the rib injury that nearly kept him out wasn’t there, and the Bears were making Bears things happen to lift their struggling quarterback like a 56-yard touchdown run by D’Andre Swift and blocking a 51-yard field goal in the fourth quarter. Or was the kick short? I thought it said block when it happened.

Either way, this is some Rex Grossman 101 on how to get carried to a win as Caleb Williams was giving them nothing in this rookie quarterback showdown.

Then with 6:21 left, the funniest NFL play in years happened. Maybe the funniest since The Butt Fumble in 2012. The Bears had the ball at the 1-yard line and could have taken the lead. But instead of doing a QB sneak or going to a running back, they brought in offensive lineman Doug Kramer and decided to go a little Refrigerator Perry by handing off to him for the dive run. What ensued had me laughing harder than any comedy I’ve seen in years:

Doug Kramer was not prepared for this moment pic.twitter.com/LuSdUfxExy
— Pardon My Take (@PardonMyTake) October 27, 2024

It’s just that image of a big man, who clearly shouldn’t be handling the football here, losing it immediately, and the ball flying so far ahead of him as if the universe said “fuck no, this isn’t happening for you” that had me laughing my ass off for a good 40 seconds.

That was just too good. But then the Bears got the ball back, and Williams started completing passes, then he got the bail-out flag for DPI on 4th-and-3 to set them up at the goal line. That’s when my mind went to the idea that he’s played like shit all game and he’s probably still going to get a win against this defense. So, he’s the Tom Brady in this new rivalry to Daniels’ Peyton Manning. The inferior quarterback with the better defense is going to get the win again. Sure enough, they got the touchdown run and 2-point conversion pass to take a 15-12 lead with 25 seconds left.

Now, some people are going to chalk this up to a lucky Hail Mary, and there’s some truth to that. But give Daniels credit for the way this offense managed the drive after a bad kickoff left them with 76 yards and 19 seconds. They had one timeout left, which was key. After short-hopping the first throw, Daniels hit a completion to Zach Ertz for 11 yards, used the timeout, then took another sideline completion for 13 yards instead of forcing something that wasn’t going to be there that far away. That bought him a chance from the 48, needing a 52-yard touchdown pass.

But when he scrambled back and was around the 30, I was thinking he’s never going to recover to get the ball deep enough for the end zone. But after the play seemingly went on forever, Daniels finally launched and the crowd was there with a Bear tipping it right to Noah Brown, alone in the end zone for one of the most shocking touchdown finishes in NFL history.

https://x.com/NFL/status/1850683356742312348

Adding to the play’s mystique right away was the footage of Chicago DB Tyrique Stevenson caught jawing with fans in the crowd while the play was already underway. He joined the crowd late and ended up being the player who hit the ball that went to Brown for the win.

Wow.

Tyrique Stevenson seen taunting the crowd while the Hail Mary play was getting snapped.

Ultimately led to a touchdown that bounced off his hand.

Cant make this stuff up. #Bears

pic.twitter.com/1WklfpswtF
— Sky Kruse (@KruseSports_) October 28, 2024

Just one of those unbelievable finishes to get the Commanders to 6-2. That might be a wrap on Offensive Rookie of the Year with Daniels throwing for 326 yards and rushing for 52 more. Williams only passed for 131 yards on 10-of-24 passing with 41 yards on the ground.

I don’t think a Hail Mary should be the centerpiece to an MVP campaign, but it is in line with the idea that Daniels understands drive engineering beyond his years, and you literally have to defend the whole field from him as a triple threat to throw it short, deep (he hit a 61-yard pass to McLaurin earlier in game), and as a runner.

Just the kind of ultimate weapon at quarterback, and we know his numbers in college were insane in 2023 (but not in previous years), and he’s doing these things in the NFL now. It’s been incredible to watch, and he really pulled a rabbit out of the hat to steal this one.

So, the funniest play in over a decade if you ask me, and a Hail Mary that is in the running for the best in NFL history. It wasn’t much of a game before those moments, but they will make it an unforgettable first matchup between Daniels and Williams.

Cowboys at 49ers: Almost Kyle Shanahan’s Masterpiece

Kyle Shanahan only gets partial (albeit a lot of) blame for 28-3 since he was Atlanta’s offensive coordinator and not the head coach. I think his masterpiece choke is still ahead of him, and Sunday night certainly would have been a contender if the 49ers really blew a 27-10 lead in the fourth quarter to a lifeless Dallas team by allowing two of the most wide-open touchdowns to CeeDee Lamb you’ll ever see.

This was a weird game as the Dallas defense was playing well in the first half to build a 10-6 lead, imploded in the third quarter, then somehow made this a game in the last 10:00 despite it looking dead.

You could see Shanahan can’t help himself as he kept calling passes for Brock Purdy when it got to 30-24, and on a 2nd-down sack, it was a miracle Purdy didn’t fumble on a blindside hit. That might have been the play of the game for San Francisco. But the 49ers still went three-and-out, and Dak Prescott had a full 3:05 to go get the winning touchdown like he did in Pittsburgh this season.

Except this time it was a disaster as the Cowboys didn’t gain a single yard and went four-and-out. I don’t know what the plan was on that drive as the only good play was Prescott throwing deep on third down to Turpin, and I’m not even sure that was smart given the down and distance, and it didn’t look like Turpin was going to get his feet in bounds with possession even if he caught it cleanly.

Then the 4th-down throw was just another prayer to a receiver who had no targets all night before that. Whatever, Dallas. It was fun while it lasted, but there’s a reason a massive comeback just never seems to happen for teams coached by Mike McCarthy. They’ll tease and tease you, but then look at that finish. Terrible, and that’s why you’re 3-4 and fading fast.

But the 49ers make you nervous as it doesn’t feel like any lead is safe with this team. Remember, they looked like they were going to blow a 20-point lead against the Seahawks a few weeks ago.

But as long as they keep getting double-digit leads in games, they’re probably going to win enough games to stay relevant through the playoffs. As for Dallas, I’m hoping we get some flexed games late in the season as this team is just tough to watch right now.

Ravens at Browns: Jameis Eats a W

Division games are weird, but what a relief for Cleveland to have a real quarterback who can take chances, make big plays, and not take a million sacks like Deshaun Watson did. Sure, Jameis Winston can always turn it over, and he tried his hardest with one of the worst dropped interceptions you’ll ever see from Kyle Hamilton with the game on the line to rescue Winston’s ass in this one.

But the Ravens did a pretty fine job of beating themselves with drops on both sides of the ball, and even Justin Tucker missed a 50-yard field goal in a clutch situation early in the fourth quarter as he hasn’t been himself this year on long kicks.

That’s not to say the Browns didn’t play well and really challenged the Ravens for 60 minutes. They would have held this high-powered offense to 3 points at halftime had Jameis not lost a fumble and set up a short field for the Ravens.

But the teams went back and forth throughout the half, and the Browns were in ideal situations, like a 24-23 deficit with 2:31 left to answer. I actually thought they screwed up with 1:08 left after getting a first down. In that spot, you wouldn’t mind just running a few times and kicking the field goal on the final snap.

But the Browns had a false start, the dropped pick by Hamilton, and just like that, you’re staring at a 56-yard field goal without a great kicker on the roster.

That’s when Jameis may have succeeded by fooling the Ravens by going deep in a situation you didn’t think he would, and he found Cedric Tillman wide open for a 38-yard touchdown with 59 seconds left. But the Browns missed the 2-point conversion, so it was only a 29-24 lead.

Lamar Jackson had a timeout, so 70 yards was doable for this offense. But once he got to the 24, I’m not sure spiking was the greatest decision, and they’d end up floundering on their last three cracks at the big play as no one could get open in the end zone. The Browns held up and got the win as an 8.5-point underdog.

I don’t think the formula is overly complex for beating the Ravens this year. The defense simply isn’t as good this season, the offensive line can give up some sacks at times, and you just have to contain those explosive runs by Henry and Jackson. The Browns are used to playing this team, even beat them last year with Predator, so it’s not that surprising that the Ravens have lost 3 games to entities they lost to last year too (Chiefs, Gardner Minshew, and Cleveland). They still have two games against Pittsburgh too, and if the Steelers can win Monday night to improve to 6-2, this loss becomes extra important.

But it is looking more and more likely that the Ravens won’t be the No. 1 seed again this season, or that they will have to go to Kansas City for any playoff rematch. As for the Browns, they waited too long to start Jameis, but at least they’re here now.

Jets at Patriots: Just End the Season

I asked in my Week 8 picks if this team was really pathetic enough to lose to the Patriots, Well, I got my answer. What does it take for this team to win a game anymore? They gave Aaron Rodgers a running game here, the receivers made some plays, the run defense wasn’t terrible, and Drake Maye left the game injured and was replaced by one of the worst comeback quarterbacks in Jacoby Brissett. Still, the Jets blew it.

I know the special teams are lousy, and I said that the other day on Twitter before they added to their legacy in this one by allowing a 62-yard punt return in the third quarter to set up the Pats on a short field for a touchdown. Then Greg Zuerlein missed a 44-yard field goal early in the fourth quarter that would have put the Jets up 19-14. Zuerlein could probably be cut at this moment and it wouldn’t hurt the team and might even help them if his confidence is really this shot.

But not converting on a 2-point conversion with 2:57 left certainly hurt the Jets as it always does when you leave yourself open to trailing on a touchdown. The defense couldn’t stop Brissett on multiple third-and-longs, then Rhamondre Stevenson pushed ahead for the touchdown on 4th-and-1 with 22 seconds left. Unlike the Jets, the Patriots converted their 2-point try to take a 25-22 lead.

Rodgers was in no man’s land, and even if by some miracle he got into field goal range, I’d bet on Zuerlein to miss it. But a completion to Davante Adams for 16 yards only saw the clock run out and drop the Jets to 2-6, the No. 15 team in the conference right now.

It’s shocking, but it’s also largely explainable. Poor situation play, a quarterback who isn’t what he used to be, a hack of a coordinator on offense to start the season, and some truly abysmal special teams play.

But still, 2-6? That’s brutal. Just end the season.

As I said the other day, Rodgers might just head into a dark retreat before the election, never to be heard from again (except for Tuesdays with Pat McAfee).

Chiefs at Raiders: All the Streaks Intact for KC

Go figure, the Chiefs (-9.5) were the only favorite not to cover the spread in the last six games on Sunday. But they still controlled this game in Vegas, their 13th win in a row, and they are back to consistently scoring 26-to-28 points on 8-to-10 drives as they have the last three weeks. That should scare you as this 7-0 team keeps showing improvements.

Just imagine how good things could be if the Chiefs eliminated the obligatory interception, which has taken over from the obligatory fumble this season. Yes, Patrick Mahomes was intercepted again in this game, and for the fourth time in a row, it wasn’t a bad play by him. His hand was hit as he threw, and you could see it coming as the Chiefs were penalized deep in their own end for holding on consecutive plays before that happened.

The Chiefs definitely have a left tackle problem (Wanya Morris), but one thing they still have is defense. After the interception set up the Raiders at the KC 3 in a 17-13 game, the defense delivered a goal-line stand, sacking Gardner Minshew on 4th-and-goal. Later on, CBS’ Trent Green had just finished saying that Minshew protected the ball before the Chiefs forced a fumble from him in a one-score game.

The Chiefs at least have a right tackle in Jawaan Taylor. Despite his penalty issues, the reason you didn’t hear much about Mason Crosby in this game is because Taylor took care of business. The offense looked very solid outside of that one penalty-to-pick sequence, and DeAndre Hopkins made a couple of nice catches in his team debut after getting the trade papers on Wednesday. Travis Kelce also finally caught a touchdown in 2024. The Chiefs were 12-of-15 on third down before Mahomes took 3 knees to wrap up the win after the team recovered an onside kick with 2:00 left.

We’ll see how much longer this team can keep up its unique winning streak in addition to the way it hasn’t allowed more than 27 points in any game since Super Bowl 57 (Eagles), nor has it scored more than 28 points since its last trip to Vegas in Week 12 last season.

But as long as the wins keep coming…

Bills at Seahawks: Can’t Stop the Rain (or Buffalo)

If I had known Thursday night that DK Metcalf was going to be out and it would rain badly during the game, I never would have suggested to bet Seahawks over 19.5 points to extend their streak of scoring at least 20 points in every game this season.

Sure, Josh Allen threw his first pick of the year and was fortunate to get away with a fumble in the slick conditions, but Seattle had no juice without Metcalf to move the ball consistently. The running game was nonexistent (Geno led team with 16 rushing yards), and Jaxon Smith-Njigba is not WR1 material yet.

That all ended in a mess in this 31-10 loss that never felt competitive. Actually, I take that back. The Seahawks had a shot when it was 7-3 Buffalo and they had 4th-and-goal at the 1. But Smith was stepped on at the line and just fell down, turning the ball over on downs.

The Bills hit them with a double score from there to make it 17-3, and that was enough to win this game if we’re being honest. A tough loss for the Seahawks, but also another game where the loss of a WR1 had a big impact. I don’t think it would have helped the defense defend Keon Coleman or Khalil Shakir, but at least the Seahawks would have scored some more points.

Eagles at Bengals: The Close Game That Wasn’t

I thought for sure this would be a close game in the fourth quarter so much that I had a +3000 SGP contingent on the Eagles winning by 1-6. All the other props hit as the skill players I expected to show up did with A.J. Brown having another big yardage game, Jalen Hurts actually scored three times on the ground, and Saquon Barkley did his thing again.

But the way this game played out was shocking as it went from a strong Cincinnati start with a red-hot Joe Burrow to an even game to a Philly blowout in what felt like a matter of minutes.

Where everything went south for Cincinnati was late in the third quarter. Hurts threw a great 45-yard touchdown to DeVonta Smith to take a 24-17 lead, and that seemed to set some panic in the Bengals, who went for a 4th-and-1 at their own 39. Don’t love the call, because this team isn’t like the Eagles where we know what’s coming on 4th-and-1 and we expect it’s going to work. Sure enough, the Bengals ended up throwing a pass outside the numbers to Ja’Marr Chase that was multiple yards short of the sticks, and it went down as a 2-yard loss. Terrible play.

The Eagles didn’t fully make them pay as they moved the ball and kicked a field goal, but it was still a 10-point game now in the fourth quarter. On the ensuing drive, Burrow threw a deep pass that was tipped from one defender and caught by C.J. Gardner-Johnson on the deflection, showing some great instincts. It was like watching Colin Kaepernick against the 2013 Legion of Boom, except it wasn’t in the end zone and this ball was coming down fast, so great reflexes by Gardner-Johnson to pull that one in.

Then the Eagles embarked on a brilliant drive that consumed half the quarter despite only facing third down once, and they finished it with another Hurts touchdown. It was 34-17 with 4:39 left – game over.

Now the Bengals (3-5) are talking about winning 7-of-9 to finish 10-7 for the playoffs. Yeah, it’s possible because of the AFC. But if those teams like the Steelers (5-2), Chargers (4-3), and Broncos (5-3) keep winning games, teams the Bengals still have four games against, it’s a moot point. Besides, the Bengals are 0-4 at home. Who is fearing this team right now?

But if this version of the Eagles can show up more, then that team has a shot in the NFC. I’m very curious to see how their matchups with Washington go. The first one is a Thursday night game in Week 11.

Titans at Lions: The Worst Special Teams Game Ever?

Earlier this week on Twitter, I said that I don’t view the Lions as an elite team after the Aidan Hutchinson injury. What I meant was I don’t see them finishing the season elite on both sides of the ball in the way that teams like the Ravens, 49ers, Bills, and Cowboys did last year. The Chiefs also played much better offense in the postseason and had one of the best defenses. You don’t win Super Bowls by winning a bunch of shootouts, and I don’t think Detroit was really blowing anyone out except for Dallas this season to this point.

Well, that made Sunday’s game awkward, because Mason Rudolph was shredding them early with two quick touchdown drives, Calvin Ridley had over 100 yards in the first quarter, and my proclamation of the post-Hutchinson defense looked right on.

But then the Lions just kept scoring on short fields that the Titans we regiving them with huge mistakes on special teams and blunders on offense. It was unreal. The Lions had drives that started at the Tennessee 23, 25, 12, 22, and 26 in this game, scoring 5 touchdowns on those drives. They also had a punt return touchdown among numerous other long returns. Definitely one of the worst special teams games you’ll see from a team.

At one point, Jared Goff had 28 passing yards and the Lions had 42 points. What the fuck? That’s not even net passing yards as Goff took 4 sacks and got away with 2 fumbles that weren’t recovered by the defense. That’s why his QBR was only 15.3, the second lowest this week.

The Lions finished with 61 net passing yards and 52 points, a combo that is hard to fathom in the NFL, especially when only one touchdown return boosted those numbers. But it was all the short fields and a 70-yard run by Jahmyr Gibbs that did the damage.

The Titans also had some pathetic play calling that stunted their scoring output despite the way they moved the ball well behind Mason Rudolph. But what a historic blowout. You have to go back to the 1950 Giants to find the only other time in the modern stats era (since 1933) where a team scored 50 points without surpassing 65 net passing yards. The stats in that game don’t even look real and may not even be 100% accurate. Who trails 20-0 before ripping off 55 points with 423 rushing yards and 51 passing yards?

But the Lions put on a show Sunday. Now they might get a break in their trip to Green Bay next week if Jordan Love can’t play.

Packers at Jaguars: Malik Willis’ Progress Is Season Saving for Green Bay

No one will know how Malik Willis would have performed in Tennessee this year if they kept him on as the backup instead of letting him go with Mason Rudolph in town. But Willis’ progress in Green Bay has been key to overcoming these Jordan Love injuries as the starter was knocked out with a groin injury in this one and his status is up in the air.

The Jaguars have played better in recent weeks, and they gave the Packers all they could handle in this one. Even after trailing by 10 points in the last 10:00, the Jaguars were able to tie the game at 27 with 1:48 left.

Just two plays into the ensuing drive, Willis hit a deep ball to Jayden Reed for 51 yards after the defender fell down on the play-action fake. That was basically all the Packers needed as they just ran the clock down before Brandon McManus walked them off for the second week in a row with a 24-yard field goal in a 30-27 win.

We know the Packers need Love to win a Super Bowl, but they are still thriving with Willis in this offense too. But they need to hear some good news on Love with the first Detroit game coming up next Sunday.

Colts at Texans: Can Indy Send Some Receivers to Houston If Anthony Richardson Is Going to Waste Them?

Watching Anthony Richardson is like a shock to the system when you think of the Colts with one of the most consistently accurate quarterbacks ever (Peyton Manning), and even Andrew Luck would get on a hot streak where he couldn’t miss.

But Richardson is something entirely different, and I don’t think it’s the type of quarterback you can ever expect to sustain offense with. He’s better at throwing 50-yard bombs than he is at anything under 10 yards. How can that work? In this game, he had a 69-yard touchdown pass, but he was 2-of-15 for 81 yards at halftime and gifted the Texans with a short field for a touchdown thanks to an awful pick.

I’m not sure how Shane Steichen stuck with him at quarterback instead of going to Joe Flacco, who you know can hit the easy throws in what was a winnable game for first place in the division.

I also don’t think Steichen was justified in not making the change. The Colts scored 10 points on their final 5 drives, but when it came time to set up a game-tying field goal, Richardson was MIA. He also dipped out of the game at one point for saying he was out of breath, something you just never hear from a quarterback.

As for the Texans, this was basically a repeat of the Buffalo win (also 23-20), except C.J. Stroud wasn’t the one turning it over in the fourth quarter to give the opponent a chance this time. The stat sheet will show fumble with the Colts in the red zone with 3:00 left, but that was Joe Mixon failing to handle a pitch on a run. They credit that to the quarterback since he was technically the last person with possession.

The Texans are fortunate the Colts were down and that didn’t go for a touchdown return to make it 27-23, because they didn’t have a ton of offense with Stefon Diggs leaving the game with no-contact injury. No word yet on that, but it didn’t look good for an offense that is already missing Nico Collins.

But at least the Houston defense finished the job against Richardson, who was 10-of-32 passing for 175 yards and 5 sacks. Remember, this defense held Josh Allen to 9-of-30 passing in a game a few weeks ago. This makes Houston the only defense since the merger to hold 2 quarterbacks to no more than 10 completions on 30-plus attempts.

The Texans swept the Colts for just the second time ever. That was that 2016 season where the Colts blew the division to Brock Osweiler. Getting swept by Stroud is understandable, but it’s not looking good for Richardson to get on that level with consistent play.

Falcons at Buccaneers: Kirk Cousins’ Favorite Defense

These teams may have played the Game of the Year in Week 5, and this one started off strong too. Kirk Cousins threw for 509 yards last time and was on pace for a huge number again with 224 yards at halftime in this one. But he was held to 52 yards after halftime as his legs became a bigger story. Kyle Pitts also nearly went full Leon Lett in this one but was bailed out by replay on a very close call when his second touchdown was nearly fumbled through the end zone because of an early celebration.

Baker Mayfield had to get things done without Chris Godwin and Mike Evans, but he started well by utilizing tight end Cade Otton and the running backs (Rachaad White and Bucky Irving). But it felt like Atlanta eventually got wise to the lack of trust at wide receiver for these Bucs, and Mayfield started getting into some trouble with turnovers as has been the case in recent weeks.

A misplayed fake punt by the Bucs helped put them in a 2-score hole for the fourth quarter. But a safety after the Falcons couldn’t handle a snap made it a 31-19 game with plenty of time. Cade Otton caught his second touchdown, then the Falcons looked like they had a chance to run out the final 6:52. Cousins had a huge 13-yard scramble, converted a quarterback sneak on 4th-and-1 before the 2-minute warning. But when Younghoe Koo had a chance to give that important 8-point cushion with 1:01 left, he was wide right on a 46-yard field goal.

Uh-oh, typical Atlanta finish coming next, right? But that might have been the case with big-time receivers like Evans and Godwin available. The Bucs drove as deep as the Atlanta 33, but after a false start, Mayfield’s last gasp on a Hail Mary did not connect in the end zone. We’d get the real thing in Washington later that day.

But with the success of a team like the Commanders, it looks like the NFC South is only getting one playoff team this year, and the Falcons are in great shape now with a 5-3 record and a sweep over Tampa Bay. That was always the best way to end their reign in the NFC South, and don’t forget that Atlanta still has some of its easiest games left late in the season while the banged-up Bucs are in Kansas City next week.

Cardinals at Dolphins: Tua’s Back, But So Is Good Kyler?

Tua Tagovailoa returned to action for the first time since Week 2, and the good news is he put 27 points on the board, and he even made a big slide to protect himself on a third-and-long scramble.

The bad news is the Miami defense did not show up. Kyler Murray passed for 307 yards without taking a single sack. For an offense that has routinely been stuck to 17 points or less for the last month, Murray was able to overcome a 27-18 deficit in the fourth quarter. He led one touchdown drive, the Dolphins punted from midfield, then the Cardinals used up the final 5:01 on a stellar drive to set up a 34-yard field goal to win 28-27 on the final snap.

The Cardinals (4-4) are technically leading the NFC West thanks to that comeback win against the 49ers. The talent is there for this to be a really good offense, so we’ll see if they can put together more games like this. But it’s a tough loss for Miami (2-5), which falls to No. 10 in the AFC.

Saints at Chargers: The Ladd McConkey Game

It was a breakout moment for rookie wideout Ladd McConkey, who finished with 111 yards and 2 touchdowns in a 26-8 win that again came relatively easy for the Chargers. Justin Herbert played efficiently and even ran for 49 yards. He also survived a cheap shot from the Saints at his legs. I thought Greggggg Williams was long gone there? But the spirit remains.

It’s still surreal to see the Chargers winning a 26-8 game. In fact, the 2024 Chargers are the first team since the 2002 Panthers to go seven games into a season with none of the games going over 39.5 points. That was John Fox’s rookie season as coach and that streak lasted the first 8 games of the season.

If the Chargers can survive Jameis next week with this streak, they have a great shot to have the longest streak to start a season since the 1992 Seahawks, who hold the post-1930 record at 15 games.

But the Chargers (4-3) are at least winning this way.

Panthers at Broncos: Run It Up

Is it possible the Panthers only scored a garbage time touchdown with 18 seconds left because they were pissed at the Broncos for perceiving they tried to run up the score with a fake kick and throwing deep on fourth down with a 28-7 lead near the two-minute warning?

Either way, that late score gave Bryce Young 14 points in his latest start, or one more point than he led Carolina to in his previous four starts combined. Still, that’s 27 points over 5 games, and he is just not looking the part of NFL starter in Carolina.

But we should probably give some much-needed attention to how terrible the Carolina defense has been too after trading Brian Burns this offseason. Not that he could alone turn things around, but they’re really poor on that side too against the run and the pass. Rookie Bo Nix was absolutely shredding them and finished with 284 yards on 28-of-37 passing.

The Broncos are 5-3, but let’s see where things stand after they play the Ravens, Chiefs, and Falcons these next three games.

Next week: Jets were a rough game for C.J. Stroud last year, but who can trust the Jets to beat anyone at this point? Chargers-Browns is suddenly more interesting with Jameis (as God intended, you know). Broncos can test that defense against the Ravens in Baltimore. Flexing Jags-Eagles out of SNF was a good move, but Vikings-Colts is basically the same caliber at this point. Unless they put Flacco in to carve up that defense. Detroit-Green Bay would be the GOTW, but what is Love’s status? Terrible timing for a groin injury. Kansas City has a great shot to go to 8-0 against Tampa Bay on Monday night.

2024 NFL Stat Oddity: Week 7

October 21, 2024 ~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

I loved the NFL’s Week 7 schedule more than I probably loved the games themselves on Sunday. It wasn’t bad, and most of the top games delivered, but it definitely felt like a return to a lot of weak offense around the league.

It’s also been oddly one-sided as just four games had a comeback opportunity going into Monday night’s double-header that should hopefully add to that total with Baltimore’s shaky closing abilities and the Chargers just generally being the Chargers.

But that’s a low number of close games despite four teams coming back from a 10-0 deficit to win (Jaguars, Lions, Colts, and Bills). The only fourth-quarter lead changes happened in the two NFC North games.

There were also many quarterback injuries in games, including the one that most people had no problem seeing. That doesn’t mean you wished for it, but you certainly aren’t going to shed a tear or think of it as a loss for the team.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Lions at Vikings: Game of the Week

With the 49ers falling apart, these NFC North games are turning into the biggest ones in the NFC this season, and Week 7 was one hell of a time to test out the Lions and Vikings. We got to see the Vikings after a bye week, and the Lions right after losing Aidan Hutchinson last week.

This 31-29 game managed to exceed the hype. The Lions failed on one of the worst fake punts you’ll ever see to start the game, then lost David Montgomery to an injury and trailed 10-0. Hard to start worse than that.

But Jared Goff completed his first 15 passes, Jahmyr Gibbs broke off a long touchdown run, and the Lions soon led 21-10 at halftime. I liked Detroit in this one because it already has two games of experience late last season against Brian Flores’ defense. They wouldn’t be as shocked by it as these other teams have been this year.

But that doesn’t mean Goff wasn’t under pressure often and had to carve up the blitz. He took 4 sacks and fumbled twice (neither lost) in the game, so it was a tough one. But he hung in there and completed 22-of-25 passes for 280 yards as he is playing as well as any quarterback right now.

Sam Darnold actually had some similar numbers in this game with 22-of-27 for 259 yards and 4 sacks. Justin Jefferson had another big game against the Lions, including a touchdown in the third quarter to make it 21-17.

But while Montgomery returned to the game, it wasn’t for the best. With 6:00 left, Montgomery lost the ball on a run and the Vikings scooped it up for a stunning 36-yard touchdown to take a 29-28 lead with 5:50 left. Huge miss on the 2-point conversion, however.

The Lions went three-and-out with Goff getting sacked on third down again. The Vikings could have ran out the clock on offense, but they too went three-and-out. Gibbs took over instead of Montgomery for the game-winning drive and delivered a huge moment with the drive’s first 34 yards. Amon-Ra St. Brown caught a 14-yard pass, and the Lions were in field goal range.

I know Dan Campbell is as aggressive as they come, but I didn’t love the conservative approach with conceding the long field goal. I’d want to get as close as possible for an unproven pro kicker in Jake Bates, the UFL standout. But from 44 yards away, Bates delivered on the biggest kick of his brief NFL career to put the Lions up 31-29.

Darnold had 15 seconds left at his own 30. He got the ball to midfield, and I’m not sure an illegal formation penalty on a spike with 1 second left (debatable) shouldn’t just be a game-ending penalty with a 10-second runoff. That felt fishy. But the Vikings had one last chance for a Hail Mary, and you never know with Jefferson down there. However, it ended in a fitting way as the Lions sacked Darnold on his ass to end the game and escape with the win.

In the end, the big plays by the Lions were too much for Minnesota to overcome. But I’m looking forward to the other NFC North clashes this year when the Packers get involved too.

Chiefs at 49ers: Super Bowl Rematch Sees These Teams Further Apart as Injuries Mount

To date, the only direct Super Bowl rematch was Dallas vs. Buffalo in 1992-93. With the way these teams are going, we won’t see another in February. Injuries are doing their damage, but the Chiefs remain the NFL’s last unbeaten at 6-0, winners of 12 straight, while the 49ers are flailing at 3-4 after this 28-18 loss at home despite being a 2.5-point favorite.

That means Patrick Mahomes continues to be the ultimate underdog with an 11-3 SU record, but this game was little about him. This was a showcase for the defense, and even if you acknowledge the injuries for the 49ers, they still had talent on that field and the system and mind of Kyle Shanahan calling plays. The Chiefs forced Brock Purdy into one of his roughest games in the NFL as he was intercepted three times, including a total headscratcher in the end zone in the fourth quarter when the 49ers trailed 21-12. Even if he wasn’t pressured as he threw it, that pass looked like it was going right to the defender either way.

Mahomes also had two interceptions in this game, but while he’s had some headscratchers this year, it’s hard to say he did wrong on a tipped pass at the line and a play where the receiver (Xavier Worthy) fell on his route. There were at least four Chiefs who slipped on Mahomes’ incompletions in the game.

But this is the value of the Chiefs in 2024. Even when the team is turning it over multiple times or doing something silly like a fake punt that failed miserably, they overcome it with their defense, and they still score a fair number of points. They scored 28 points in this one with three of those touchdown drives from long distance.

Mahomes’ best play was as a runner when it was a tight 14-12 game. He tightrope-walked the sideline and stayed in bounds for a 33-yard run that set up his first touchdown run since 2022 on a 4th-and-goal at the 1 to make it 21-12.

Still, it’s wild to see the injuries for these teams. Both starting running backs (Christian McCaffrey and Isiah Pacheco) were out. The Chiefs were already missing their top wideouts (Rashee Rice and Hollywood Brown), and then their new de-facto No. 1, JuJu Smith-Schuster, left the game early after aggravating his hamstring. The 49ers lost Deebo Samuel quickly to an illness, Brandon Aiyuk was knocked out with a potentially serious injury, and Jauan Jennings, who actually leads the team in receiving yards before this game, was already inactive. Just a mess.

But the Chiefs still found ways to score four touchdowns and actually were leading by 16 points before a San Francisco touchdown made it a 28-18 final. That final score by the Chiefs got them to 28 points, the first time they scored that much during this 12-game winning streak.

That just creates a new record, however. The Chiefs are the first team in NFL history to win 12 straight games without scoring more than 28 points in any of them. Their next opponent (Raiders) is the last team to beat them, but this season is beyond fucked if that ends up being their first loss in 2024.

It’s coming eventually with the way they’re playing, but they were still impressive enough in this game. Not everyone can do that to the 49ers, injuries or not.

Texans at Packers: My Preseason Hype Teams Played the Walk-Off FG Finish I Expected

I’ve been high on the Texans and Packers as “new powers” in the league since February really. I was looking forward to this one since we probably won’t get many games between Jordan Love and C.J. Stroud, but I was stunned at just how well Green Bay limited the Houston passing game.

The Packers have feasted on turnovers this year while still giving up their share of yards and points. But this was an impressive performance where they really held Stroud in check without a single takeaway. They held him to 86 passing yards on 21 throws, and they sacked him 4 times while flustering him all day. The Texans scored on a lot of short fields and couldn’t really sustain offense.

On the other side, Jordan Love had one of those mixed games where he made some “wow” throws, but he had a few more picks, and he couldn’t get some of his best receivers going against this pass defense.

But it was a close game as I expected. I picked the Texans to win because I trust Stroud more than Love in those moments. Sure enough, Stroud saved probably his best throw of the game for a late third down when the Texans were driving in a 21-19 game late. But the Packers had all of their timeouts, and the Texans failed to get the touchdown or a first down to run out the clock for their field goal. They had to settle for taking a 22-21 lead with 1:44 left.

A lead is a lead, but that’s not a very safe one with that much time left. However, I wanted to see how Love would fare here as we have seen him struggle to come up with a field goal in these moments. Think of last year in games like Atlanta, Denver, or San Francisco in the playoffs. He was only 2-8 at comeback opportunities before Sunday.

Also, the Packers have been going through kickers like crazy, so you had to wonder how newly signed Brandon McManus would do. I know him best from Denver, and he’s been an adequate enough kicker in his career.

But Love had to get him in range, and that didn’t prove to be a big problem this time. He marched the offense 44 yards in a hurry. McManus was left with a 45-yard kick to win it, and after an icing attempt, he delivered the goods for a 24-22 win. That’s a quality one for the Packers this year.

Jets at Steelers: Tomlin Knew

For the last six weeks, I’ve basically come on here and said that I’m not impressed with what Justin Fields is doing in the Pittsburgh offense. He looked a lot like the quarterback from Chicago in that he’s slow with his decisions, he rifles too many throws, doesn’t make the touch passes on time, he’s a magnet for sacks and fumbles, and he’s possibly the least clutch QB of the 21st century.

Yet, the NFL groupthink seemed to get stronger every week that Fields is now good, and the Steelers would be crazy to bench him for old Russell Wilson. They kept citing the 4-2 record, even though the Steelers had not won a game when the opponent scored more than 13 points all season. The offense, including Fields himself, had a lot of mediocre rankings as well. These were results you could certainly improve on with a quarterback of Wilson’s experience. He only was out because of his calf. He was going to be the Week 1 starter otherwise.

So, I was always hoping for Mike Tomlin to come to his senses and start Wilson, but I was skeptical he’d actually do it because of the team’s record. Yet, Tomlin had the balls this week to defy that national NFL groupthink and go with Wilson. People created silly stats like the “first 4-2 quarterback to get benched” when it’s not even the first time in Pittsburgh history. Joe Gilliam was benched for Terry Bradshaw in 1974 despite starting 4-1-1, a better record than 4-2. But I guess since it’s not exactly 4-2, they think their insignificant stat has meaning. Screw that.

I still liked the Jets to win the game Sunday night, but that’s because I had much higher expectations for Aaron Rodgers and that offense after a good showing (kicker aside) against Buffalo last week, and the addition of Davante Adams via trade. Sure enough, Rodgers threw his first pass to Rodgers, but the receiver couldn’t pull it in, and he finished with just 3 catches for 30 yards on 9 targets as Allen Lazard and Garrett Wilson looked better in that offense.

Well, Wilson was fine until the third quarter when he popped an easy catch into the air for an interception that was returned to the 1. There’s your game changer. Rodgers didn’t have a good game and especially not a good second half, but that second pick was not his fault at all. The Jets just have many issues.

As for Wilson, he no doubt got off to a bad start. After he attempted to kill Earthworm Jim on back-to-back plays, I thought he really did go The Full McNabb with 2011 Vikings vibes. Someone sign Christian Ponder.

But games are 60 minutes, and we know even in Russ’ prime he could start a game ugly. Before you knew it, he had as many passing yards at halftime as Fields had in half of his full games this season. Wilson throws with more touch, he gives his receivers more opportunities down the field, and he makes better and faster decisions with the ball than Fields. Did he get lucky on a few passes? Sure, but it was his first game in 10 months, and his first with Pittsburgh. Do you remember how Rodgers looked in his first games of the last two seasons with New York, or Tom Brady’s debut in Tampa Bay? It was worse than this.

Wilson did a very nice job, and he showed he was mobile enough to only take 1 sack on the night. He also didn’t throw any picks. Justin Fields has literally never had a start in the NFL where he threw no picks and didn’t take multiple sacks. Wilson did that in his first game with Pittsburgh. He also didn’t fumble like Fields did weekly. The running game also didn’t die with him in there as Najee Harris continues to look highly motivated these last two games. George Pickens also caught his first touchdown of the season.

Russ had a definite huge impact on the offense, and he feels more in control at the line than Fields ever did. He won’t run as fast as Fields, but he rarely needs to. That’s not the kind of quarterback play that’s going to take you far, and Tomlin understands that. I think benching Fields will prove to be one of his smartest moves in years.

The quarterback who actually looked too old and slow on Sunday night was Rodgers. Is he going to trade Wilson next after that dropped pass turned pick? They’re 2-5 and fading fast even in a weakened AFC.

But Sunday night was a great one for Tomlin and anyone who didn’t see what the fuss was with Fields all these weeks.

Titans at Bills: Box Score Blowout Doesn’t Tell the Story

The numbers are going to make this one look like a boring rout, a 34-10 blowout where Josh Allen threw for over 300 yards, Amari Cooper caught a touchdown in his team debut, and the Titans still struggled to score with Mason Rudolph starting for an injured Will Levis (AC joint).

Those things are all true, but this was a tough game for Buffalo deep into the third quarter. The Bills went three-and-out 3 times in the first quarter and fell behind 10-0. Cooper dropped his first target. Rudolph was outplaying Allen.

But the Titans really screwed themselves to start the second half when they went for a 4th-and-2 at their own 44 and Tony Pollard was stuffed for a big loss. Why would they do that with a 10-7 lead? The offense was not thriving to the point where you could trust them to convert and actually turn it into points.

The defense was playing well, and Buffalo was struggling on offense. This just gave them a huge boost as Allen took the field 41 yards away from the end zone and the drive ended with Cooper scoring. The Bills led the rest of the game. Terrible decision by the Titans to go for it.

The Bills padded some stats late with the game in hand, including a 16-yard touchdown run after the 2-minute warning. But the Titans had a shot for most of this game. Far from your normal 34-10 rout.

Seahawks at Falcons: Surprising Rout

These teams have played many close games, and you just expected that sort of finish in a passing fest between Geno Smith and Kirk Cousins. Actually, I thought it’d be a passing clinic with Geno facing a defense without a pass rush, but he moved around well and threw for 181 yards at halftime. I just didn’t expect him to barely finish the game with 200 yards as the run game and defense showed up for Seattle to finish the Falcons off in maybe their worst team performance of the season.

Just when you thought Cousins would make it a one-score game while trailing 24-14 in the fourth quarter, the Seahawks had the plot twist with a strip-sack and recovery for a touchdown to make it 31-14 with 12:4 6 left. Cousins threw another pick on the next drive, and we ended up seeing the first NFL completion of rookie Michael Penix’s career before this one ended 34-14.

No quarterback controversy in Atlanta (yet), but this one surprised me as I thought for sure the Falcons would do more damage against that Seattle defense in the dome.

Eagles at Giants: The Saquon Revenge Game Delivers

Revenge games can be overrated but running back Saquon Barkley had one of the best you’ll ever see for the Eagles against his Giants. He really carried the offense with 176 yards on just 17 carries, and he scored the game’s first touchdown, which might have been enough given the Giants could only muster a field goal in the 28-3 blowout.

That left Jalen Hurts with an easy job as he only had to throw for 114 yards. The game was avert-your-eyes bad for pass blocking as all four quarterbacks who played took sacks, including backup Kenny Pickett, and there were 13 sacks total between the teams.

Naturally, Daniel Jones took the worst of it with 7 sacks in a game where he didn’t have left tackle Andrew Thomas (surgery). Jones finished with 43 yards on 28 pass plays, which is pathetic even for his low standards.

The Giants punted 11 times, so they were even absurdly boring in blowout fashion. At least throw some picks. Risk something.

Bengals at Browns: When Losing Is Good

The Browns got Nick Chubb back for the first time in over a year, and they lost Deshaun Watson for the season to a torn Achilles on a non-contact play. All in all, that sounds like a great day, right?

Oddly enough, Chubb scored a touchdown on the drive where Watson was injured right before the half. Almost as if karma was taking over and the fortune was changing for Cleveland. But I thought it was odd before the game that Jameis Winston was announced as the No. 3 quarterback, demoted for the young Dorian Thompson-Robinson. What did Jameis do to get demoted? I thought he was the best quarterback on this roster.

It may have cost the Browns too, because DTR stunk off the bench. He completed 11-of-24 passes for 82 yards with multiple picks. A 34-yard run was his longest play on a day the Browns couldn’t actually run the ball on Cincinnati, a defense that has done a huge turnaround these last two weeks thanks to playing lines like the Giants and Browns in 2024.

But DTR was injured, allowing Winston to play in the fourth quarter. But it was too late by then. The Bengals started the game with a 100-yard kickoff return touchdown, but that Joe Burrow-led offense managed just two touchdowns in this 21-14 final. Another ho-hum performance where the Bengals were fortunate to be playing a bad team.

But the Watson story is over for 2024, and maybe that could help the Browns move on from him faster. Cleveland players supported Watson after the game and criticized the fans for cheering his injury. I could see where they’re coming from as teammates, and probably as players who hope they aren’t cheered while injured down the road. But they should also understand why fans feel that way about Watson.

Of course, I wouldn’t expect Winston or Myles Garrett to be the voice of reason on this topic. Winston is especially a bad messenger for this, and Garrett should know better as someone who is supposed to be the face of the franchise.

But it was nice to see Chubb back and in the end zone. More of that going forward.

Patriots vs. Jaguars: Do I Get on a Soapbox Again About That Strategy?

I didn’t get up to watch this one and see the Jaguars explode back from a 10-0 hole, but I was awake to see the 2-point conversion strategy become a talking point again. The Patriots were down 25-10, scored a touchdown with 8:22 left, decided to go for 2, didn’t get it, and they trailed by 9+ for the rest of the game, which eventually became a 32-16 loss after a poor finish.

I am consistently against going for 2 on the first touchdown as it is the strategy more likely to lead you into needing one onside kick recovery, if not two, and I never want anything to do with that hopeless endeavor. I also think the later in the game, the worse of a strategy it is. This wasn’t super late, but you have to keep in mind the Patriots hadn’t scored since the first quarter.

Also, when people talk about having “more information” aspect of it, do they ever consider things like the fact that the Patriots never ran a play from deeper than the Jacksonville 16 in this game? Seriously. Their failed 2-point conversion attempt was their only snap inside the final 15 yards of opponent territory in the game. Not exactly much practice at running your red zone and goal line packages in this game. Instead you’re completely cold to that area in the game, and now you have to make this crucial play or you’re down 2 scores with half a quarter left. Just something to consider that I never see considered. I don’t think confidence gets considered enough, not to mention the hopelessness felt from being down 2 scores.

But I don’t feel like getting into it any more over an inconsequential game between two of the worst teams in the league. I just know when the Patriots forced a punt and got the ball back with 3:58 left, it sure as hell would have been nicer if they were down 25-17 instead of 25-16. That way you could even punt on 4th-and-26 instead of having to go for it and for sure ending the game early with a big loss.

At least give me a chance in a one-score game. But the Patriots should again feel some encouragement with Drake Maye, who threw for 276 yards, 2 more touchdowns, and only took 2 sacks on 37 pass attempts. I’m not sure what sitting behind Jacoby Brissett did for him, but I’m glad we’re past that part of the season.

That still doesn’t mean I want to wake up at 9:30 A.M. to watch the post-Belichick Patriots play overseas against the London Jaguars.

Raiders at Rams: The “If a Bear Shits in the Woods…” Game of the Week

It’s a little early in the season to just not care at all about these teams, but that’s where I am already. I just don’t see either being part of the playoff picture. Matthew Stafford and Gardner Minshew both threw for 154 yards in this game, though Minshew did his work off the bench after starter Aidan O’Connell left with an injury.

But the Raiders kept trying to chip away with field goals while the Rams missed potentially a huge 35-yard field goal with 10:11 left that would have made it a 23-12 lead. Instead, Minshew later got the ball back in a 20-15 game with 1:39 left. If he truly is the Ryan Fitzpatrick of the 2020s, he lived up to the reputation with a game-ending interception on the third play of the drive. Good pressure on the drive by Jared Verse, who I guess is still the frontrunner for Defensive Rookie of the Year.

Dolphins at Colts: Neither Team Had Their Best Quarterback

Tough loss for Miami (2-4) if they were hoping to get back in this thing with Tua Tagovailoa maybe returning at quarterback next week. They were up 10-0 and Anthony Richardson couldn’t hit the broad side of a barn with his passes.

But the Dolphins gave up a big completion before halftime, which led to a field goal for the Colts. Then in the third quarter, they really coughed up the game to the Colts. Raheem Mostert lost a fumble, which led to a 28-yard touchdown drive, then Alec Ingold lost a fumble in the red zone in a 10-10 game.

The Colts had the ball to start the fourth and Richardson led what is technically his first game-winning drive in the NFL, ending with a 22-yard field goal with 8:41 left. But the Dolphins lost Tyler Huntley to injury, and he was replaced by the dreadful Tim Boyle. Kicker Jason Sanders missed a 54-yard tying field goal with 5:14 left.

After the Colts added a field goal to make it 16-10, a move you can get away with against Boyle, it was a poorly-run 2-minute drill for the Dolphins that didn’t make it past the Indy 33 before Boyle sailed his 4th-down pass out of bounds. Either he’s incredibly inaccurate and tried to get that pass to the sidelines, or he didn’t realize it was fourth down.

Either way, I hate entertaining either of these teams for wild card spots. This is not good football. A game between Joe Flacco and Tua might have been alright though.

Panthers at Commanders: Please, Spare My Favorite Rookie

The crazy thing is Jayden Daniels left in the first quarter with a rib injury and the Commanders still won 40-7. The Washington defense still matched the Carolina team in scoring thanks to a horrific Andy Dalton pick-six starting the scoring in the game. But Marcus Mariota replaced Daniels very well, and it was business as usual for this offense.

I think that says a lot more about how bad the Panthers are (again) than anything about Daniels being a system quarterback. You can’t teach his 46-yard run to anyone, but Mariota is a good fit for that offense.

I just hope Daniels is okay to go next week in the showdown with Chicago and fellow rookie Caleb Williams. It was clear there was no need to rush him back in this game with the score lopsided so quickly.

Next week: Vikings-Rams on TNF. Better than putting Sam Darnold in prime time a week later when the ghosts are out. Eagles-Bengals is a nice game for teams who peaked in 2022. I hope they #FreeJameis against Baltimore in Cleveland. The Falcons-Bucs rematch could be something after the first game was excellent. We need Jayden Daniels healthy for that Chicago game to save the late-window slate. Cowboys-49ers is oddly more interesting now that both teams are struggling. Giants-Steelers means we get to live the Russ experience in prime time again, but I see that as T.J. Watt’s launch game towards DPOY since he gets to face Daniel Jones. Overall, a huge step down from the Week 7 marquee games.

2024 NFL Stat Oddity: Week 6

October 14, 2024 ~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

At the very least, I picked the appropriate week to call my NFL picks “Favoring the Favorites” on Saturday. Favorites just went 11-2 SU and 10-3 ATS in Week 6 with Monday night pending. I took the underdog Jets for that one, so we’ll see, but it was finally a great day for the favorites.

And what a great day for the NFC North. The Lions blew out the Cowboys on Jerry Jones’ birthday to get some revenge for last year, the Packers routed the Cardinals, the Bears routed the Jaguars, and the 5-0 Vikings had a bye week. But every NFC North team is 4-2 or better, and they are the top four teams in scoring differential pending Buffalo on MNF.

The NFL leader in point differential is the Minnesota Vikings at +61.

Then the Detroit Lions at +60, the Bears at +47, and the Packers at +41.

Every team in the NFC North has a better point differential than every other team in the league.
— Benjamin Solak (@BenjaminSolak) October 14, 2024

That’s one of the craziest stats I’ve ever seen. But there was not much late-game drama in Week 6. Only six games had a comeback opportunity, including the Seahawks on Thursday night, and the only fourth-quarter lead change all day was in Tennessee.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Commanders at Ravens: Respectable in Defeat

Figures, I got greedy and took Ravens -9.5 and their late 30-20 lead didn’t hold up in this 30-23 final that was right on the spread and total (Ravens -6.5, O/U 51). Vegas nailed that one.

But while the Ravens still won to make both teams 4-2, I think you have to be impressed by the young Commanders and rookie Jayden Daniels. He didn’t have Brian Robinson Jr. and they couldn’t run the ball as he led the team with 22 rushing yards. Their defense has really struggled this year, and this game was no exception with Lamar Jackson throwing for 323 yards on 20-of-26 passing, and Derrick Henry rushed for 132 yards and 2 more touchdowns. The only Baltimore turnover was an interception on the first drive on a pass that went off Mark Andrews’ hands.

But the Commanders hung around the whole game. They had some struggles in Baltimore territory, and their 52-yard field goal was blocked to end the first half. Daniels showed some great ball placement on tough throws to Terry McLaurin, who caught 2 touchdowns (to the chagrin of my best parlays that needed Ekeler or Daniels to run it in).

Even though they lost, I think this is a good measuring stick game for the Commanders, and they should feel solid about how they performed against an elite AFC team. When they look at the rest of the NFC East on Sunday, they can’t feel that bad about this loss.

This game didn’t produce a memorable finish or even a true game-winning drive opportunity, but it was not a Baltimore blowout by any means like they’ve done to so many NFC teams in the Jackson era. Still, he is 22-1 against the NFC now.

Bengals at Giants: Can We Petition the NFL to Stop Putting Daniel Jones in Prime Time?

Daniel Jones is like a Gremlin where you can’t feed him or have him start an NFL game after 8:00 p.m. ET unless you want trouble. Jones is now 1-15 in prime-time starts with the Giants since 2019, and the latest was quite the masterpiece as he lost a 17-7 game at home to the Bengals on Sunday night.

What a week. Bengals fans went from lying about how Patrick Mahomes has never had a defense as bad as the 2024 Bengals, and now let’s see them pass off this game where the Bengals allowed 7 points on 10 drives, the fewest points allowed in Joe Burrow’s first 65 starts.

But it was such a weird game. We would have been scoreless into the third quarter if not for Burrow rushing for a 47-yard touchdown run on a 3rd-and-18 on the opening drive. The red sea parted and he just took off with barely enough speed to reach the pylon.

We were stuck like that for a long time, but the Giants started using four downs to convert some drives, and we eventually had a 10-7 game in the fourth quarter. But not only is Jones horrible in prime time, but we know game-winning drives are not his strength outside of the beginning of that 2022 season. He wasn’t horrific here, but he ran out of steam on a key drive when they had a chance to take the late lead on the Bengals.

Kicker Greg Joseph reminded us he used to kick for the Vikings when he was wide left on a 47-yard field goal that would have tied the game with 10:27 left. But after the Bengals punted, Jones had another chance. It ended with another turnover on downs, the second of the half as he just struggles to make those timing passes into short windows.

Burrow finally made a big play on a 3rd-and-12 with a 29-yard completion, and Chase Brown went from goat to hero (sort of) after scoring a 30-yard touchdown to make it 17-7 with 1:52 left. On the previous snap, Brown fumbled in the open field, which would have been a disaster if the Giants got on the ball before it landed out of bounds.

Brown could have just went down after he got the first, and the game would have been over with kneeldowns. Easiest way to do it and no injury risk to your defenders that way. But he scored to make us forget that fumble (and cover that 3.5-point spread).

On their responding drive, the Giants reached the Cincinnati 27 with the clock ticking under a minute and they spiked the ball with 55 seconds left to bring Joseph out for a 45-yard field goal. He was wide left again and the game was over.

My question is why are teams doing this now? The Broncos did something very similar, if not more egregious, against the Chargers on Sunday in the same situation with a 10-point deficit. Why are we kicking on first down with a minute left with the end zone 20-to-25 yards away? I’d rather take some shots from there to get the touchdown, then I can get my miracle onside kick recovery, then I can set up a long field goal with one or two snaps if it’s going to happen.

That still feels like a better scenario than forcing the field goal, getting the tough onside kick, and possibly having to force a long touchdown play, if not a Hail Mary that’s very low percentage. If you manage the clock and have a play called instead of the spike like the Giants did, you could have been inside the 15 with the clock stopped and 45 seconds left if you use the sidelines.

I don’t know if the Giants and Broncos are just seeing this differently than the rest of the league will, but I didn’t like the rush for the field goal in either scenario Sunday. Even if you recover the onside kick, you’re still going to be about 55 yards from the end zone. How long will it take you to get the 30 yards closer then you are now? Keep in mind the Giants didn’t have a single play gain more than 15 yards all night.

I want to see more examples of this in 2024 to see what other teams do. But the Bengals got the win here as expected, even if the 17-7 outcome was nothing like anyone expected.

Lions at Cowboys: Someone Take Jerry to the Glory Hole for a Better Birthday

I really liked Detroit in this one after what happened last season with the illegal formation penalty in a 20-19 game won by Dallas. But I never expected 47-9 with the Cowboys simply getting destroyed at home on both sides of the ball. The defense getting annihilated without Micah Parsons against that Detroit attack? Sure, that part makes sense.

But the offense couldn’t find the end zone once in 11 drives? Really? Dak Prescott didn’t even throw for 200 yards as they benched him with the game out of hand. The Cowboys finished with 5 turnovers in an embarrassing loss, the worst home loss of Jerry Jones’ career and on his 82nd birthday.

But despite the big win, the Lions suffered a big loss on the day. Aidan Hutchinson was dominating this season and a favorite for Defensive Player of the Year. But on a play where he sacked Prescott in the third quarter, Hutchinson broke his tibia in one of the most gruesome injuries I’ve ever seen in an NFL game.

That’s a terrible break for Detroit as you need that kind of edge rusher for a Super Bowl season. It can’t be all offense every week, but right now, the Lions are clicking on that side of the ball. They were clicking everywhere in Dallas on Sunday.

Cardinals at Packers: Complete Effort

When I picked the Packers to win the Super Bowl or at least get there from the NFC this season, this is the kind of performance I pictured of them at their best. Jordan Love spreading the ball to his weapons with defenses not knowing who to key in against. He threw 4 touchdowns to three different receivers in this one and he didn’t take a sack. The running game was also dominant, and something I didn’t quite expect, but the defense has been stellar at forcing splash plays all year. They had 3 more takeaways in this 34-13 rout.

The Cardinals are frustrating, man. They come up just short of beating Buffalo, they came back to beat the 49ers last week, but they’ve also stunk offensively against the Lions, Commanders, and now Packers. It didn’t help that Marvin Harrison Jr. was injured before he could make a catch in this game but come on. They have enough talent to score more than 13 points.

I’d still like to see a turnover-free game from Love, but 34 points will absolve him here. Now let’s start stacking wins like last year.

Jaguars vs. Bears: Caleb Williams’ Critics Are Getting Quiet Quickly

Just like how you don’t trash Caitlin Clark after 5 games, you don’t dismiss the No. 1 overall pick after a couple of games in the NFL. You can take shots at the competition, but the Bears are scoring points during this 3-game winning streak. They’ve had back-to-back games with at least 35 points.

Williams faced the London Jaguars on their turf, and he threw 4 touchdown passes, completely taking control of the offense in a 35-16 win. Even the 3 sacks he took only lost 5 yards in this game as he completed 23-of-29 passes for 226 yards. Picking apart a bad defense is what you hope to see from a rookie, and Williams delivered with Cole Kmet and Keenan Allen both catching a pair of touchdowns. D.J. Moore (20 yards) didn’t even have to do much this week, which speaks to Williams’ ability to spread the ball around and make things happen.

All of a sudden, I don’t hear the Justin Fields truthers complaining that he’s gone. I don’t see the people burying the Bears for this pick or poking fun at the thought of Williams having the best supporting cast for a rookie QB drafted No. 1 overall.

We’ll see what happens in these division games as the NFC North is incredible to start this season. But Williams is an impressive rookie and Chicago fans can be excited again. As for the Jaguars, they’re reportedly staying in London for the New England game next Sunday. If they lose that one too, I’m thinking Doug Pederson gets the axe a la Robert Saleh.

Texans at Patriots: Drake Maye Era Begins

Can we stop pretending like Drake Maye would have died if he started a game in September for the Patriots? He faced the best pass rush in Houston, took 4 sacks, but still threw 3 touchdowns (Jacoby Brissett had 2 all season), threw for 243 yards, and he led the team with 38 rushing yards as they couldn’t provide him with a running game.

Were their mistakes? Sure, he had 3 turnovers, but what did you expect? Houston was marching early for touchdowns and he was chasing. But there were positive moments and fans should feel optimistic given how ugly some of those Week 1 rookie starts were this year.

It’s also amusing to me that in one Drake Maye start, the Patriots allowed 41 points on defense. Tom Brady only had one game his entire career where they allowed more points than that. Go figure.

But Houston is one of the best teams he could have faced this year. Better days will be ahead. Try to focus on the positives in the 41-21 loss. At the same time, Houston finally won a game by more than 6 points this year, so good for them too. Joe Mixon has been stellar in his two full games for this offense, which didn’t miss Nico Collins at all for this matchup.

Browns at Eagles: Philly Has No Aura

I’m always talking about the quick turnarounds in the NFC and how that conference loves to produce a new flash in the pan each year. The Eagles are a great example of this. They had a great season in 2022 when they reached the Super Bowl, then they were 10-1 last year even if they were very fortunate to win several of those games, which foreshadowed their collapse.

But this team has no aura anymore. Even with A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith returning for this game, which was critical as they won it for Jalen Hurts with the running game stuffed, the Eagles still struggled at home to score 20 points. They were in a dogfight with Deshaun Watson, who took 5 more sacks and sucked on 3rd down again.

This was a 13-13 game in the fourth quarter before Smith took a short pass and turned it into a 45-yard game-winning touchdown with half a quarter left. The Browns had their chances in the fourth quarter but settled for a field goal both times. The last one made it 20-16 with 3:54 left.

The Eagles were able to bleed the clock on offense with Brown making a 40-yard catch to ice it. Brown and Smith had 3-of-4 plays that gained over 20 yards for the Eagles in this game.

If they were playing a better quarterback than Watson, which would be about anyone in 2024, things may have gone worse in this one. The Eagles are 3-2, and that’s only good enough for No. 9 in the NFC at the moment.

They’ll have to play much better than this to leapfrog some of these teams, but the division is still their clearest path to the playoffs. But I’ll be curious to see how this defense handles Jayden Daniels and the Commanders twice.

Steelers at Raiders: Guess Oakland Had the Voodoo That Vegas Doesn’t

I’m so used to the Steelers going on the road to lose to the Raiders, but maybe Las Vegas doesn’t hold the same voodoo for them that the Oakland Coliseum had. The Steelers won in Vegas last year, the only game where Kenny Pickett threw two touchdown passes. The Steelers won there again this time with Najee Harris finally ending his touchdown drought with a great effort on a 36-yard run.

But there weren’t many offensive highlights outside of that. After falling behind 7-6, the Steelers lived on short fields the rest of the way, which has a lot to do with the 32 points. Justin Fields struggled to sustain offense, but it’s hard not to put up decent points when you’re starting two drives inside the opponent’s 10 and another two drives inside the 36. The Raiders also had some crucial roughing penalties to take away a Fields’ pick and a 3rd-down stop that extended another scoring drive.

Russell Wilson was active for the first time all season but remained a backup. I guess the win won’t change a thing for Tomlin’s choice at quarterback, but I still think this team is screwed when Fields has to outscore the better teams. Fortunately, this was Aidan O’Connell trying his best without Davante Adams or Jakobi Meyers available.

T.J. Watt is also the likely favorite for Defensive Player of the Year after the Aidan Hutchinson injury. He forced two fumbles in this one. Just one of the best players ever at knocking the ball out.

Chargers at Broncos: Healthy Justin Herbert Returns

The intrigue at the start of this one was when coach Jim Harbaugh momentarily left the game for what was an arrhythmia situation. Thankfully, he was able to return. Thankfully, the Chargers didn’t blow a 23-0 lead in the fourth quarter, though they tried their best.

But a healthy Justin Herbert made a big difference as he threw for more yards by halftime than he had in any full game this season after having the bye week to heal up. The Broncos’ defense had been playing very well, but Herbert had no problems early, and it didn’t hurt that Patrick Surtain left with an injury.

But you would like to see the Chargers close things out better than this after giving up the last 16 points in the last 11 minutes. Fortunately, the Broncos didn’t recover the onside kick after getting a second crack at it.

Buccaneers at Saints: Baker’s 50 Burger

What a nutty, frustrating game. One of my core plays this week was Chris Olave going over 5.5 yards in the first quarter after rookie Spencer Rattler talked about getting him the ball after a quiet game against the Chiefs. He was facing the Tampa defense that gave up over 500 yards to Kirk Cousins last week. It made too much sense.

Of course, Rattler fires a pass to Olave in trouble on the third snap of the opening drive, he takes a huge helmet-to-helmet shot, fumbles the ball for a (questionable) touchdown by the defense, and the play only gained 5 yards. He missed the rest of the game for the concussion, something that has plagued his career.

That’s the kind of shit that will make you quit gambling. He just had to lead him into a huge hit like that. Then before you know it, the Saints are down 17-0 and everything looks so bleak. But not even 11 minutes later, they were leading 20-17 thanks to some Baker Mayfield turnovers and a punt return touchdown by Rashid Shaheed. Before you know it, the Saints put up 27 points in the second quarter with Rattler looking like a cheap imitation of Patrick Mahomes.

But the Saints never scored again. In fact, this is the first time since a Mahomes game against the 2019 Raiders where a team scored this many points (28 in that case) in the second quarter and none in any other quarter. That game actually was scoreless by both teams after halftime.

Not the case here. Even though Mayfield threw 3 interceptions, he had this offense moving all day to the tune of 594 yards. He also threw for 325 yards and 4 touchdowns with Chris Godwin (11/125/2) posting a huge line. Without Rachaad White, the Buccaneers rushed for 277 yards and eventually put up 51 points.

This was still a 31-27 game with a quarter left, but Rattler threw a bad pick immediately to start the fourth quarter. That’s when the avalanches really started as Tampa won 51-27. But it was a very weird game script.

Colts at Titans: Flacco Delivers in Surprise Start

I’m sure Shane Steichen gets the sense that his offense is better with Joe Flacco than it is Anthony Richardson, especially when Jonathan Taylor is inactive. Richardson was supposed to start, but Flacco got the call in the end. It was just that kind of week for the Colts as No. 1 wide receiver Michael Pittman was supposed to go on injured reserve for his bad back, but he ended up playing and had a huge impact.

Pittman came down with a 10-yard game-winning touchdown with 7:27 left. Pittman also made a 16-yard grab at the two-minute warning that allowed the Colts to run most of the clock with a 20-17 lead. The Titans only had time left for the lateral play to end it.

But the Titans had the ball multiple times in the fourth quarter, only needing a field goal to tie. Will Levis threw a pick with 4:52 left, then they decided to punt on a 4th-and-7 at their own 25 with 2:26 left. They had three clock stoppages left, but it was probably the wrong decision in a 20-17 game. They only had 12 seconds when they got the ball back to work with.

Of course, having Will Levis as your quarterback probably means you’re screwed even if the game was another 30 minutes. Levis finished 16-of-27 for 95 yards against what has been one of the worst defenses this year. He was 0-for-8 when targeting to Calvin Ridley, who I can tell you I won’t be targeting again in prop picks the rest of the season. He’s made the shitlist.

I really think the Titans need to be close to benching Levis for Mason Rudolph. If you look at their touchdown drives in this game, one was 27 yards after a Flacco pick, and the other was only made possible by Tony Pollard breaking a 23-yard run on 3rd-and-19.

This game also reminded me of just how many flags Flacco draws with his dangerous passes. He had 5 flags drawn in this game for defensive pass interference, defensive holding, illegal contact, or roughing the passer, including a wiped-out pick and several third-down incompletions erased by penalty.

But that’s Flacco. He just keeps slinging it – eight straight games with multiple touchdown passes – even in games where he wasn’t supposed to play.

Falcons at Panthers: Rare Easy Win for Kirk Cousins

In typical Kirk Cousins fashion, the Falcons have been living on the edge all season, having already won three of the most improbable games of the 2024 season. This looked like the last hope for some late-game drama in the late-afternoon window as Cousins and Andy Dalton were trading scoring drives as Atlanta took a 28-20 lead into the fourth quarter.

But in a familiar story for the Panthers for many years now, they folded in the fourth. Dalton was intercepted in scoring territory, and the Falcons cranked up their running game in this one – over 200 yards before Cousins’ kneeldowns – and put together an 84-yard touchdown drive to make it 35-20. A quick four-and-out by Carolina led to another field goal and a 38-20 final. Dalton threw another pick to officially end things.

At 1-5, I expect Carolina to turn things back to Bryce Young. You have to see what more you have there, and maybe he’ll try things differently after this benching. Dalton is what he is, and it’s just not enough to compete this year. Let’s get some assurance that Young sucks and the team needs to shop elsewhere for 2025.

Next week: I see an early writing night on Thursday with Saints-Broncos, but Sean Payton will probably win that one in New Orleans. I’m sleeping in even longer for Patriots-Jaguars than I did for Bears-Jaguars in London. But the NFL actually delivers with the rest of the Week 7 schedule, including Packers-Texans, Lions-Vikings, and Chiefs-49ers. Not fond of Jets-Steelers on SNF, but Ravens-Buccaneers is coming at a great time on a MNF doubleheader with the less important Chargers-Cardinals. Don’t think we’ll have two undefeated teams left after this Sunday.

2024 NFL Stat Oddity: Week 5

October 7, 2024 ~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

Week 5 was a step in the right direction for this 2024 NFL season. More scoring and more lead changes – that’s all I really want in the end. We had a few Game of the Year candidates, and the best of them all was probably played Thursday night in Atlanta against Tampa Bay.

But Ravens-Bengals exceeded the hype, Bills-Texans was oddly exciting, the Cardinals shocked the 49ers, and the Cowboys basically shot themselves in the foot all night before putting the dagger in Pittsburgh.

We had seven game-winning drives this week, the most since Week 1 of the 2023 season, and that’s pretty good with four teams on a bye and one game left Monday night that could easily add to this.

Overall, 10-of-13 games had a comeback opportunity, so it was a lot of close action, and the games that weren’t close were basically shit you weren’t going to care about anyway.

But I sure did get a lot of use out of “Same Old” headlines this week as a lot of these games did maintain the status quo for certain teams and players.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Ravens at Bengals: Same Old Bungles (As the AFC North Turns)

Joe Burrow said he’d have to be perfect to win this game, and he was pretty accurate about that. It proved to be one of the biggest shootouts and best games in AFC North history as the Ravens came back to win 41-38 in overtime after some stunning twists and turns down the stretch.

The tide turned in the first half after Derrick Henry was tackled for a safety, then Burrow found Ja’Marr Chase for a 41-yard touchdown to end the first half. From there, it was Baltimore chasing the whole second half.

But Lamar Jackson was game in one of the best passing performances of his career. He threw for 348 yards and 4 touchdowns. Burrow also had one of his best games with 392 yards and 5 touchdown passes as Chase had a monster game with 193 yards.

When Chase took a short pass 70 yards for a touchdown with 8:54 left to give the Bengals a 38-28 lead, it sure didn’t feel like Baltimore’s day. Jackson hadn’t led a game-winning drive in a game where Baltimore allowed more than 17 points since November 2021.

But Jackson led a touchdown drive that culminated in one of the greatest plays of his career:

Can’t watch this play enough. Lamar is still Lamar. pic.twitter.com/vs1hZl14KH
— Tyler Dunne (@TyDunne) October 7, 2024

Up 38-35, the Bengals had a chance to either ice the game with a first down, or they could have added a field goal to take a 6-point lead (as dreaded as that sounds). But Burrow made his only big mistake when he threw a bad interception with 3:01 left.

Baltimore’s drive stalled, but Justin Tucker had the offense’s back with a 56-yard field goal to tie it. Here we were again with Burrow having a chance for a legacy drive with 1:35 left in a tied game, but he immediately took a sack that derailed things. The Bengals went three-and-out and the game went to overtime.

Something had to give here with Jackson not leading any game-winning drive since the 2022 season, and Burrow having his own problems with a lack of a killer instinct.

The Ravens got the ball first, and sure enough, Jackson took his eye off the ball and fumbled the snap in field goal range. The Bengals returned it to the Baltimore 38, setting themselves up to win the game on a field goal. But as we’ve seen before with this team and Zac Taylor, they were content with just running the ball and setting up a very long field goal, which is usually a bad idea unless you have Tucker as your kicker.

After gaining just 3 yards, the Bengals attempted a 53-yard field goal, and a bad hold looked responsible for throwing off the kick as Evan McPherson was wide left. On the very next snap, Henry made up for his quiet game with a 51-yard run down to the Cincinnati 6. Without risking another fumbled snap or screw-up, the Ravens did the right thing and immediately kicked the 24-yard field goal with Tucker to win the game 41-38. You know he delivered.

Just like that, the Ravens went from falling into the 2-3 muck with the Bengals in the AFC North race to back on top after the Steelers lost on Sunday night to also fall to 3-2.

I would say the Bengals are finished at 1-4, but the AFC is not good enough right now to rule them out for a wild card berth. But the division title may be a pipe dream now. That Cincinnati defense is just rotten this year, and while the Ravens have their own issues, a healthy dose of Jackson and Henry is going to be tough to deal with.

I don’t know if I could say in good faith that the Ravens are the best team in the NFL after they should have lost this game. But they continue to be a tough out and unique challenge for everyone.

Cowboys at Steelers: Same Old Steelers

I feel like I’m in some Twilight Zone where people keep giving Justin Fields credit for an “almost comeback” last week as if we didn’t see that several times in Chicago from him. I also don’t get the celebration of the Steelers playing another sloppy grind of a game like they always do as if that’s a good thing. It’s why this team is always flirting with .500 and never winning playoff games anymore. This is not good football when you trial 6-3 at halftime because you’re playing scared, chickenshit offense and your defense is living for splash plays because you give up so many yards otherwise.

Stick a competent quarterback against this defense and it’s going to struggle. Dak Prescott finally pulled his head out of his ass on the final drive to deliver a dagger with 20 seconds left to Jalen Tolbert for the win on a long-developing play:

THE DALLAS COWBOYS!! Dak to Tolbert for 6️⃣!

📺: #DALvsPIT on NBC/Peacock
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/Jg7btATnJO
— NFL (@NFL) October 7, 2024

Great, patient throw. The Cowboys were staring down a 17-13 deficit, a minus-3 mark in the turnover department, and they had a field goal blocked. It’s really hard to win on the road when you face those circumstances, but they pulled it out. They also deserved the win as they outgained the Steelers 445-226. They just shot themselves in the foot more.

I still think the Steelers should start Russell Wilson as soon as he’s cleared. He’ll do more than complete four passes in the first half as it still looks like they’re not fully trusting Fields. Hence doing things like running the ball on 3rd-and-8 while trailing 3-0. That’s not normal for NFL offenses.

Wilson will also give them a bigger edge in close games, something this team can’t seem to escape.

Bills at Texans: Same Old 2019 Josh Allen?

Josh Allen was back in the building where he played his first playoff game in the 2019 AFC Wild Card against the Texans. He lost that one in overtime, a game I remember best for his wild lateral attempt at midfield that he didn’t need to do. But he was a loose cannon back then and not nearly as good as he’d become starting in 2020 when the team acquired wide receiver Stefon Diggs.

Well, Diggs and Allen were back together on Sunday, but this time they were rivals after the April trade that sent Diggs to Houston. It couldn’t have come at a better time too as Nico Collins left this game injured after smoking the defense for a 67-yard touchdown catch. Diggs had to step up in his absence, and he finished with 6 catches for 82 yards.

Meanwhile, Allen finished 9-of-30 for 131 yards, an unfathomable stat line for any quarterback in 2024, let alone Allen. I saw some drops but I don’t know what the actual number was. But Allen certainly looked scattershot and not that confident with the group around him, which didn’t include Khalil Shakir after his injury last week.

It truly was a game where the Bills lacked receivers in Diggs’ absence, and the Texans were aided by the Diggs trade to make up for losing Collins. How fitting.

But while C.J. Stroud had a strong start to this game when it was 20-3 Houston, looking like he deserved to jump Allen in the MVP odds, he did not finish this game like an MVP. Stroud got into turnover problems with a pick in Buffalo territory, a strip-sack that set up the game-tying field goal for Buffalo, and then he got called for an intentional grounding penalty that knocked the Texans out of field goal range in the final minute. Just one mistake after another.

But the biggest story was when Allen’s head clearly hit the ground on a bad play, and he looked like he may have gone to sleep for a few seconds. Everyone was thinking concussion, but somehow, Allen was cleared and only missed one snap. It makes you wonder just how thorough that test was and if he didn’t use his star status to stay in the game. That one didn’t pass the sniff test for me.

It's insane that Josh Allen was put back in after this hit. Even if he says he's fine, why bet the franchise QB that #concussion symptoms aren't delayed?
Protocol aside, how are we taking risks like this just a few weeks after another Tua concussion?pic.twitter.com/jr6iBbgsAl
— Chris Nowinski, Ph.D. (@ChrisNowinski1) October 6, 2024

Upon returning, Allen sure played as if he had a brain injury. Coach Sean McDermott is taking the blame, but Buffalo’s approach to the final drive in a 20-20 game was mind boggling. They had 1st-and-10 at their own 3 with 32 seconds left, so that’s not an enviable position. You are afraid to run since you might get a safety if you give it that deep to a back, and Houston also had 3 timeouts.

It was realistic that the Bills could run the ball 3 times, the Texans call their timeouts, and you still risk a punt with seconds left with Houston having a shot to do something. On that level, I can understand coming out trying to throw. But you still have to call good plays and make smart throws that will likely be completed and run clock to make the Texans burn those timeouts.

Allen was throwing dangerous passes that could have been picked off, and even if they were complete, the gain wasn’t worth it as the Bills were out of timeouts and would have had a hard time getting into range.

It was just absolutely bizarre as Allen threw three straight incompletions and the Bills punted on a drive that took 25 seconds, gained no yards, and allowed the Texans to keep all their timeouts. Just poor situational awareness.

Stroud completed a 5-yard pass, the receiver went down, and the Texans called timeout with 2 seconds left. Guess what? If they used their 3 timeouts to get the ball back from Buffalo, they wouldn’t have had that option there. They would have needed to get out of bounds, which is harder to do. That’s why the 3 incompletions were such a fvck-up.

Fairbairn was able to connect from 59 yards on the best kick of his career to win 23-20. It wasn’t pretty at all, but have you seen the way the Chiefs are winning? Did you see how Baltimore got past Dallas and Cincy? This will do as the early portion of the game at least showed the Texans could take it to Buffalo, a potential playoff foe down the road.

There should definitely be some concerns with that Buffalo offense. Forget the Chiefs and Jets. The Bills should be in those wide receiver trade markets as I don’t think they have enough here to beat the top AFC teams this year.

Cardinals at 49ers: Same Old Shanahan

It’s hard to identify any real trends in what goes into Kyle Shanahan’s 49ers blowing a game they should have won. All I know is that it happens frequently enough, and that’s why I hated the graphic FOX tried pushing in the fourth quarter of this game that said Shanahan’s team was 38-0 when entering the fourth quarter with a 10+ point lead. The 49ers were up 23-10 at halftime and 23-13 going into the fourth quarter of this one.

First, I hate graphics like this because they lead to people drawing the false conclusion that he’s never lost a game with a double-digit lead in the fourth quarter. This is just the score at the start of the quarter. Isn’t it more relevant what the score was even later in the game?

That’s what I hate about “entering the fourth quarter” stats as the score with 15:00 left isn’t as important as say 7:00 left. Just two weeks ago, the 49ers were up 10 points against the Rams with less than half the quarter to play, and they found a way to lose that one.

Also, this ignores the playoffs where he know Shanahan lost Super Bowl LIX to the Chiefs after leading 20-10 to enter the 4th, and he lost the 2021 NFC Championship Game to the Rams after leading 17-7 to enter the 4th. Those were losses too, among the biggest in his career.

With that said, this one still shocked me as the Cardinals seemed snakebitten. They had a blocked field goal returned for a touchdown. But things took a turn in the second half when the 49ers had to play without kicker Jake Moody. I still think he’s a liability, but he’s better than not having a kicker. That injury led to the 49ers going for a 4th-and-23 instead of adding a 45-yard field goal to their lead.

Even if the 49ers got into field-goal range on the last drive, I’m not sure they would have been able to capitalize given the injured kicker situation. But I also don’t like that Brock Purdy is going to get the brunt of the blame for another loss that’s dropped this team to 2-3.

Yes, he didn’t play his best game, but he had a tipped pick, he had the misfortune of the kicker situation, and running back Jordan Mason really screwed them with a bad fumble on first down in the red zone with just over 6:00 left in a 23-21 game. Not to mention the reason the Cardinals were down 23-21 instead of 23-20 was a roughing the passer penalty on the defense, so the Cardinals took the 2-point conversion from the 1-yard line, a smart move.

The Cardinals took the Mason fumble and drove for the go-ahead field goal to make it 24-23 with 1:37 left. Again, I’m not sure the 49ers would have been able to settle for a field goal on the drive unless it was super short.

But after one completion, Purdy was hit in motion as he threw, the ball fluttered, and it was intercepted to end the game. That’s just how it goes sometimes, but the 49ers again found themselves in a position they shouldn’t have been in.

This happens a bit too often for Shanahan’s team. The only good news is Seattle lost too as a big favorite at home. They’ll meet each other this Thursday night in Seattle.

Jets vs. Vikings: Same Old Rodgers (And Same Old Darnold?)

If you’re Davante Adams, do you even want to go back to the Jets when they look like this with Aaron Rodgers? He threw two picks in the first quarter, a new thing for him, and that includes a pick-six that helped the Vikings take a 17-0 lead. Minnesota has not trailed in a game since the first quarter of Week 1 against the Giants.

But before you thought this would be a blowout, keep in mind Sam Darnold had the worst game of his 2024 season and brief time with Minnesota. He was picked in the fourth quarter too, and the offense missed Aaron Jones after an injury knocked him out. They only scored 16 points on offense this week with Darnold not throwing any touchdowns.

Rodgers chipped away at that defense, but he ended up throwing for 244 yards on 54 attempts, including 101 yards on 22 targets to Garrett Wilson. That’s not very efficient at all. I don’t think the weapons are that bad for Rodgers in this offense, but he just doesn’t seem to have built good chemistry with anyone yet.

Down 23-17 late, it looked like Rodgers might actually pull off the comeback. But while he usually takes interception avoidance to another level in these moments, this time he threw a pass to Mike Williams down the sideline that veteran Stephon Gilmore picked off with 44 seconds left to help the Vikings to 5-0 and drop the Jets to 2-3.

Aaron Rodgers crawling like he needs a revive in Fortnite. pic.twitter.com/oiCyguS7Ac
— Fidel Cashflow (@mattmurphylol69) October 6, 2024

Rodgers took a beating in this game and it’s hard to see him lasting a full season at this rate. I’m not sure adding Adams is the cure-all for this offense, but it is the side of the team that is holding them back. The defense did a good job of limiting the Vikings and keeping this game within reach.

As for the Vikings, they get an early bye and have a huge game with Detroit at home in Week 7. They’ll hope the real Sam Darnold doesn’t come back when they do, because Sunday was not as encouraging as the first four games for him.

Packers at Rams: Same Old West Coast Stafford?

Matthew Stafford always had some Philip Rivers-type gunslinger qualities in him. He was better in crunch time than Rivers, but with Rivers retired, we needed someone to fill the void of a quarterback always stuck in a one-score game in the late window. Sure, Justin Herbert does a good job of that with the Chargers, but he’s been hurt lately.

It falls on Stafford, who once again found himself with the ball late in a 24-19 game against Green Bay thanks to some horrific decisions by Jordan Love, who turned a safety into a pick-six. Will Levis didn’t play this weekend, but his spirit was kept alive by Love here:

Jordan Love just went full Will Levis pic.twitter.com/zoXiKyt8rF
— Sam Monson (@SamMonsonNFL) October 6, 2024

But the Packers also picked Stafford with Xavier McKinney adding to his great start to the season. Still, it was only a 24-19 game late and it came down to another last-gasp effort by Stafford. He was unable to convert a 4th-and-5 this time with 1:02 left, and that was the ballgame.

The Packers are actually getting more consistent play from their defense than their offense right now, but if Love can ever get on track this year, they have a chance to go far.

Browns at Commanders: Same Old Sack Merchant

The Washington Commanders had their least efficient game on offense this season, punting 4 times and turning it over twice. Jayden Daniels completed 56% of his passes instead of the 82% he was at.

And still it was good enough to win 34-13 over a Cleveland team that is playing a lot of bad football right now. But for all the problems Cleveland has, nothing is worse than the way Deshaun Watson plays quarterback. He took 7 more sacks as he is just a magnet for defenders even in ways we didn’t see in Houston.

Watson’s QBR is down to 21.0 this season. In any other situation, he’d have been benched already, but coach Kevin Stefanski insists he’s still the QB1 in Cleveland. Keep this up and you’ll be unemployed while he’s still there fleecing the organization, Kevin.

Daniels in Washington just goes to show how quickly you can turn things around in this league with the right pick at quarterback. The Texans did it a couple years after Watson left with C.J. Stroud too. Cleveland never seems to find that guy, but the answer sure as hell isn’t keeping Watson as the starter.

Colts at Jaguars: Same Old Indy in Jacksonville

Something had to give here:

The Colts have not won in Jacksonville since 2014, losing eight straight trips there (plus one in London against Blake Bortles).
The Jaguars had lost 9 straight games started by quarterback Trevor Lawrence, the quarterback who practically can’t win a game if he doesn’t complete better than 60% of his passes.

Well, it was a wild path to a 37-34 win with Joe Flacco putting the fear of God in Jacksonville fans with some classic deep ball prayers that were answered by Alec Pierce. The Colts just didn’t want to die in this game despite trailing 20-10, 27-17, 34-20 in the fourth quarter alone.

Flacco’s 65-yard touchdown to Pierce tied the game at 34 with 2:40 left. But Lawrence finally had one of those sharp, efficient games as he threw for a career-high 371 yards on his 25th birthday. He completed 28-of-34 passes too, and it looks like the Jags have a stud in rookie wideout Brian Thomas Jr., who had 122 yards and another big touchdown. Tank Bigsby also showed off some big-play ability at running back, so Travis Etienne may be taking a backseat in this offense.

But game on the line, Lawrence did a good job of moving into field-goal range. Certainly better than you saw from C.J. Stroud, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, and Joe Burrow in the same window on Sunday.

The Jaguars made a 49-yard field goal with 17 seconds left, and that was good enough to hang on for the 37-34 win, the team’s first win of 2024. But it actually may be a more troubling game for the Colts as someone is going to have to ask coach Shane Steichen why his offense does better with Gardner Minshew and Flacco at quarterback than it does the injury-prone Anthony Richardson. That’s troubling.

Giants at Seahawks: Same Old Pete Carroll Type of Loss?

We’ve seen the Seahawks lose at home to a bad Giants team before. I remember the 2020 loss when they were an 11-point favorite. But I really didn’t think it would happen this time without Malik Nabers and Devin Singletary available.

But the Giants marched up and down the field with Darius Slayton crapping out a 122-yard game, and the running back Tracy (Dick?) rushed for 129 yards. Embarrassing stuff. This game shouldn’t even have been this close as the Seahawks only got on the board early with a fortunate fumble at the goal line that was scooped up for a 102-yard return. If that was ruled a New York touchdown on the field, it probably would have stood as it was that close.

Can someone tell me exactly who was out on the defense for Seattle to have such miserable results after allowing the Lions to complete 100% of their passes last week? I know rookie Byron Murphy was out again, and I know rusher Boye Mafe missed his second-straight game. But who else is going to make that much of a difference after the Seahawks played very good defense in Weeks 1-3?

The Seahawks must have been so scared of their defense that they went for a 4th-and-1 at their own 35 while trailing 20-13 with nearly a whole quarter left. I don’t like that call as the offense wasn’t playing nearly well enough to think they’d march the 65+ yards for a touchdown even if they converted. Fail there and you’re almost guaranteed to go down two scores, which they did. Worse, Geno Smith took a sack and gave up 7 more yards in field position. He had great scrambles (72 rushing yards) in this game, but his passing was not up to snuff.

But despite all the struggles, the Seahawks were in position to win this game, or at least force overtime. Down 23-20, Geno’s 32-yard scramble put them in field goal range, but they didn’t get much closer than that. The 47-yard field goal was emphatically blocked with 0:55 left for a touchdown return, and that’s your ballgame, a rough 29-20 loss for Seattle.

The only good news is the 49ers blew their game against Arizona, setting up an awkward battle this Thursday night in the NFC West.

Panthers at Bears: NOT the Same Old Chicago Offense?

There’s not much complaining now about Caleb Williams after three games that have been much more promising after that rough start. Such is the life of a rookie quarterback in this league. Williams finished with 304 yards and 2 touchdown passes in this one, and he almost had a highlight-worthy touchdown run that was taken away by penalty.

But this is more along the lines of what we thought when writing this offseason that the Bears were putting the best situation around Williams among all No. 1 picks. The defense was again very good as Andy Dalton was eventually benched for Bryce Young in the 36-10 loss. D.J. Moore had a huge game with 105 yards and 2 touchdowns. Williams only took 1 sack against 29 passes thrown.

The Bears are 3-2 and things are moving in the right direction. But it will get harder once they start playing these NFC North games. It looks like the best division this year as none of the teams are objectively bad.

Raiders at Broncos: NOT the Same Old Raiders vs. Denver in the 2020s

Did you know the Raiders were 8-0 against Denver since moving to Vegas in 2020? Well, that streak is no more as Sean Payton helped end another one for his Broncos in the AFC West. They ended their 16-game losing streak to the Chiefs last season.

This one didn’t start well with a 10-0 deficit as rookie tight end Brock Bowers produced a big play for his first touchdown. But Gardner Minshew made some ghastly interceptions that I thought would get him benched this week, but Antonio Pierce wasted no time and pulled him in this game for Aidan O’Connell. But that predictably didn’t help, and it appears Bo Nix is decent every other week as he had another solid game in this one after last week’s embarrassment (despite the win) in the rain.

Denver went on a 34-0 scoring run to win 34-18. It was a lot of scoring on short fields, almost like they did in 2023, so I wouldn’t get too excited yet. But that is three straight wins for Denver, and they finally ended that losing streak to their rivals from Las Vegas.

But the coolest thing in this game? Those throwback uniforms for Denver:

This is one of the best uniforms in the world pic.twitter.com/HsoMRbwlaA
— Joe Schad (@schadjoe) October 7, 2024

Dolphins at Patriots: Same Old Offensive Woes in New England

These teams predictably struggled to score in a 15-10 game between the NFL’s worst scoring offenses. But the Patriots had a 10-9 lead in the fourth quarter. They picked a bad time to throw the ball on consecutive attempts on the outskirts of field-goal range, and that allowed the Dolphins to get the ball back in a 10-9 game and drive for a long touchdown march after discovering the running game worked in New England.

Down 15-10, Jacoby Brissett looked like he had a go-ahead touchdown to rookie Ja’Lynn Polk, but he didn’t come down with the completion on a missed opportunity. The Pats turned it over on downs, then rushed a throw to the Miami 11 as time expired on their latest loss.

You can get Tua Tagovailoa back or start Drake Maye, but neither team appears to be going anywhere this season.

Next week: We’ll see what the Chiefs do Monday night, but it’s possible both 5-0 teams (KC and Vikings) are on a bye in Week 6. Thursday night’s 49ers-Seahawks game takes a weird turn after both teams lost as touchdown favorites at home on Sunday. No chance I’m getting up early for Jags-Bears on Sunday. Commanders-Ravens in the early afternoon slot sounds great. Lions-Cowboys headlines the late window, then we get Bengals-Giants on SNF. Who possibly could have thought that was a good idea? Then it’s Bills-Jets on MNF, which very similar to TNF, it’s a first-place battle between teams that are disappointing us so far. But sure, sign me up for Jayden Daniels against this vulnerable Baltimore defense.