NFL 2025 Week 15 Predictions: The Return of Philip Rivers Edition

This 2025 NFL season has been crazy enough as is, but to bring back a 44-year-old Philip Rivers after five years away from the game? He’s literally a semifinalist for the 2026 HOF class at the moment. Then to call him up on a short week against an elite defense like Seattle? Good luck with that, but I’m not sure I’ve ever had more of a morbid curiosity in seeing how a game plays out than that one.

But beyond Rivers’ return, it is a fascinating week when you have multiple home underdogs who are on 10-game winning streaks in the Patriots and Broncos. Not only that, but they’re playing teams in the Bills and Packers who have some really bad losses as big favorites against the spread this season. Not to mention the Patriots already beat Buffalo in Buffalo.

Throw in the 6-7 Chiefs still being a 5.5-point favorite despite losing two in a row and losing to the 9-4 Chargers in Week 1, and I’m not sure if it’s the oddsmakers accurately assessing these new contenders in 2025, or if people are just betting with their hearts from last year and not adjusting to what’s going on this year.

Who’s right? Who’s actually a good team in 2025? It’s hard to say because it really does feel like a season where anyone can beat anybody, and these teams have four weeks to figure things out before the playoffs.

This Week’s Articles

In looking at the NFL awards going into the final quarter, I see a vision for how the MVP can be decided in Week 16, Myles Garrett vs. Micah Parsons for DPOY, and 6 coaches who can have a case for Coach of the Year. But if Philip Rivers plays well, he’s a lock for Comeback Player of the Year, something I didn’t even have time to consider when I wrote that Monday night.

As for the QB rankings, Patrick Mahomes undoubtedly was let down by drops more on Sunday night than any other game in his career.

For Week 15 picks, I have parlays for Bills-Patriots, Chargers-Chiefs, Dolphins-Steelers, and yes, a Philip Rivers-themed SGP.

NFL Week 15 Predictions

I had the Falcons covering on TNF, but what a crazy 14-point comeback that was. Tampa really blew multiple opportunities for game-ending fumble recoveries, and Baker Mayfield missed that game-sealing throw on 2nd-and-14. Just another brutal loss for the Bucs (7-7), another common division winner having a down year.

NYJ-JAX: Don’t love the Jags with such a huge spread but Brady Cook isn’t any good, right?

ARI-HOU: There’s a decent chance Jacoby Brissett puts up a better stat line against Houston than Allen and Mahomes did. But I don’t think Houston scores enough to cover the spread, but the Texans will win.

BUF-NE: I’m taking the Bills to remind NE who’s run this division since 2020. A lot of bad turnovers for the Bills in the first matchup but the defense played fine for a half. Stefon Diggs carried the passing game for NE. I think Buffalo clamps down and gets the split even if the Patriots are still winning the AFC East this year.

LAC-KC: I can’t trust the Chiefs to cover right now, especially not 5.5. Both QBs don’t have their starting OTs, but the Chiefs better find a way to get a pass rush going against the Chargers’ joke of a line. This is basically their last stand for this season mattering.

LV-PHI: Give me Kenny Pickett to cover the spread in a low-scoring game. But it sure would be hilarious if he led a GWD in Philly.

BAL-CIN: I prefer the over more than the spread here. But I think the Ravens protect the ball far better than on Thanksgiving and put up their share of points on the Bengals, who just can’t stop anyone again.

WAS-NYG: Division games are always weird but I think Jaxson Dart can win by 3 against a poor defense that J.J. McCarthy beat 31-0.

CLE-CHI: Just feels like a sloppy game where Caleb Williams might need to lead a GWD to get the win by 1-7.

TEN-SF: Don’t believe the Titans after last week’s win. I think the 49ers win by 14+

DET-LAR: Rams will play well at home while the Lions won’t be able to keep up with that offense. Not enough DBs to handle Puka and Davante.

CAR-NO: Saints could certainly pull off another upset, but I think Carolina makes the most of another Tampa loss and gets the win here. close game though.

GB-DEN: Going to trust the Broncos at home to get it done. Big shock that these defenses have 22 turnovers between them, but I think the Broncos pull it out in the 4Q.

IND-SEA: As long as Darnold doesn’t throw a pick parade, I think Seattle wins big. Rivers should play the whole game though. They have no one else. That’s why they’re desperate enough to start grandpa.

MIN-DAL: I like a Jefferson TD but Cowboys win by 7.

MIA-PIT: No T.J. Watt but still shouldn’t be an issue. Steelers have won 22 straight at home on MNF and it’s going to be under 20 degrees. Dolphins will turtle up on the road again.

2025 NFL Stat Oddity: Week 14

I said Sunday could prove to be a franchise-altering day in the AFC, and I think the results speak for themselves.

  • The Colts (8-5) have likely gone from 7-1 and the No. 1 seed to out of the playoffs after losing to the Jaguars again and losing Daniel Jones to a torn Achilles.
  • The Bengals (4-9) blew a snow game in Buffalo that should absolutely give the team the green light to fire Zac Taylor and his entire staff after Joe Burrow and company will miss the playoffs for a third-straight season.
  • The Ravens (6-7) lost at home to the Steelers (7-6), and while the AFC North is hardly decided, Baltimore still has to play the Patriots and Packers (teams competing for No. 1 seeds), and teams they just lost to at home (Bengals and Steelers on the road). If there was ever a season to force John Harbaugh out of town…
  • The Chiefs (6-7) couldn’t finish another close game against a good team and are on life support for the playoffs, needing to win out and for the Colts and Chargers to lose multiple games (actually not that unrealistic). But with how this year has gone, they’d be foolish not to make some major changes for 2026 as their AFC West reign is over and so may be their playoff streak.

I just wrote earlier this week how we’re trying to make sense of the new contenders this year and the unprecedented decline of so many contenders at once.  However, saying teams like the Bengals, Ravens, and Chiefs (Steelers too) need to make big changes for 2026 is not an overreaction to one off year. There have been things festering for multiple years there, and with the teams in dire situations going into Week 15, maybe they’ll finally realize something has to change.

As for the rest of Week 14, a lot of the games were duds as we’ve only had six comeback opportunities. In fact, the only double-digit comeback win of the last two weeks was the Bills over Bengals today, and the only fourth-quarter lead change on Sunday was Joe Burrowing throwing that pick-six in Buffalo.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Texans at Chiefs: Game of the Day

You have to give the 2025 Chiefs credit. If this was their last stand for the playoffs, and that’ll look increasingly likely if the Chargers win on Monday night, then they gave the home crowd all the greatest hits to their season:

  • An embarrassing pass rush when they didn’t blitz, leaving numerous receivers wide open on third-and-longs.
  • No takeaways on defense again.
  • Harrison Butker had about the loudest doink ever on a missed 42-yard field goal.
  • Limited touches for Brashard Smith (a 7-yard run) and Tyquan Thornton (19 yards but also had a touchdown bomb knocked away in the end zone) despite showing solid play.
  • Remember when the first pass of the season was Travis Kelce running into Xavier Worthy in Brazil? The first pass here saw backup left tackle Wanya Morris suffer a game-ending injury, leaving the offensive line without three starters and placing a third-string left tackle (UDFA rookie) in his NFL debut against the No. 1 defense.
  • Mahomes led the team in rushing with 59 yards (they’re 0-4 this year when that happens).
  • Season on the line, a pass from Mahomes went right off of Kelce’s hands for an interception (third time this year).

But there were a couple wrinkles in this performance that made it stand out as the worst loss of them all this season for the Chiefs: Aggression inconsistency and dropped passes.

The Chiefs, even going back to last year, have made a habit of playing games with limited possessions, usually getting 8-9 drives a week, the lowest total in the NFL. This makes it harder on the offense as every mistake gets magnified, but they made it work better last year with clutch plays to close out one-score games. The exact kind of plays they keep failing on this year.

But this game was different. The Chiefs had a season-high 13 possessions as each team had the ball 13 times. That’s because there were a lot of three-and-out drives and quick stops. It wasn’t a game with limited possessions, so the Chiefs could stand to make some mistakes here as the defense played well even after losing top corner Trent McDuffie early.

That’s why Andy Reid’s fourth-down decision making didn’t make any sense. He let the Dallas game beat him twice, because he was criticized in that one for a fourth-down punt in a shootout with Dallas. But this wasn’t a shootout. It was a grind with C.J. Stroud playing ice cold in the second half.

Reid let the offense go for a 4th-and-1 that led to a 2-yard Kareem Hunt touchdown in the third quarter. They needed the touchdown, so that was fine. But two drives later, why settle for the 36-yard field goal on 4th-and-2 at the 18 to tie the game with 1:50 left in the third? Why not be consistent and go for it again with your offense starting to move it well and the defense playing so well? You were getting possessions.

Then the real head-scratcher: 4th-and-1 at your own 31 in a 10-10 game with 10:22 left. The Texans just punted on a 4th-and-1 at their own 35, because they knew what kind of game this was. Why didn’t Reid understand it? Instead, he let the offense go for it, and Mahomes’ pass to Rashee Rice was defended tightly by Stingley, and I couldn’t tell if it was another defensed-dropped or what. But it was a turnover on downs either way.

Now a struggling Houston offense was set up 31 yards away from the end zone, and that gave the Texans new life to get a go-ahead touchdown, which they did. That decision largely killed the Chiefs in this game.

Then in getting the ball back in a 17-10 game, Reid basically did it again, going for a 4th-and-4 at his own 41 where failure almost likely leads to a 10-point deficit with under 5:00 left. Game over against this defense. And once again, Mahomes’ pass to Rice was flat out dropped.

Surprisingly, Houston went three-and-out after that one, giving Mahomes another chance from 92 yards away and 3:44 left. After a short drop by Kelce on first down, Mahomes threw a pass that should have been a first down to him that went off his hands and right to the defense for the third pick of the night. The second one to start the fourth quarter was an arm punt on third down out of FG range and out of 4-down territory, but this one hurt and it’s something Kelce has done three times this year to Mahomes – none bigger than here.

That one was the dagger as the Texans used up most of the clock to add a field goal for a 20-10 lead with 0:30 left. From there, it was just two stat-padding completions to avoid Mahomes finishing a full game with under 150 passing yards for the first time in his career. It was the first time he threw for 3 interceptions and no touchdowns.

But look what it took to get there. Three linemen out, the backup LT going out on play 1, the No. 1 defense on the other side, and a career-high 8 or 9 drops depending how you want to count some of those plays. Those drops combined with some really poor fourth-down decision making by Reid were actually far more damaging to the game than the backup offensive line was. This wasn’t Super Bowl 55 or Super Bowl 59 all over again with constant pass rush.

This was receivers not getting open against good coverage, then when they did, not completing plays as Mahomes has never had this many drops in one game. Just a ridiculous effort in the biggest game of the year for this team.

If this was Kelce’s last playoff-contention type of game in his NFL career, he finishes it with more drops (2) than catches (1) for the first time in his career. I’d say Mahomes might be a little happy on the downlow if Kelce chooses to retire and marry the most famous woman in the world. But then when you tell me Rice, who dropped a big third-and-8 in Dallas last week in a similar clutch situation, is supposed to be his next top target, I think the Chiefs are in some long-term trouble if they don’t sort this out.

On a cold night with both teams feeling the playoff pressure, the Texans stepped up and the Chiefs did not.

Fight or flight. The 2018-24 Chiefs had it in them to get it done in these games. The 2025 Chiefs simply do not, and the shame of it all is people will look at a game like this and still blame it all on the quarterback.

As for the Texans, they have hands down the best defense in the league this season. They were also very good in 2024, so we know this isn’t a fluke. They’ve been to the playoffs the last two years, got to the divisional round both times, and if they keep playing like this, they just might be able to win out until the Super Bowl in this weakened AFC. They might be the closest team we’ve seen to the 2015 Broncos from a decade ago, and yes, Davis Mills did his Brock Osweiler-level job of saving the season with some big wins over the Jags and Bills.

From 0-3 to 8-5, DeMeco Ryans and company deserve a lot of credit for this turnaround. As for Reid and the Chiefs, they aren’t mathematically eliminated, but it sure looks dire even if collapses by the Chargers (see schedule) and Colts (Jones/schedule) are not improbable at all.

What’s improbable is thinking the 2025 Chiefs can ever get through four straight wins without screwing up a game. They haven’t done it all year, and I no longer expect them to.

It’s a lost season.

Steelers at Ravens: The Rivalry Continues, Same As It Ever Was

This may be a selfish reason to want the continued employment of Mike Tomlin and John Harbaugh for these teams, but would the Steelers vs. Ravens rivalry be the same without them? Like, imagine these teams go in the opposite direction and hire some dorks trying to cosplay as Kyle Shanahan and Sean McVay. It just wouldn’t be the same and what makes this such a great rivalry filled with hard-fought, close games.

You can always throw out the records and spreads when these teams play. Did it matter that both played like shit at home in big losses last week where they turned it over and the quarterbacks were brutal? Nope, you ended up with a 27-22 thriller between two multi-time MVPs at quarterback in their first ever meeting.

Aaron Rodgers turned 42 this week but he looked as good as he has all season. He hit a deep ball to DK Metcalf on his first pass after going an entire month without a pass completed over 20 yards down the field. I want to say he had four in this game alone. He also scored his first rushing touchdown in over four years on a third-down scramble. His movement looked much better this week as if he got a Lazarus Pit to celebrate his 42nd birthday.

Then again, the Baltimore defense has been known to help quarterbacks perk up as Rodgers passed for a season-high 284 yards while taking no sacks. He also had no running game as the Steelers finished with 15 carries for 34 yards for him. Meanwhile, the Ravens rushed for 217 yards in the loss, producing this hilarious statistic about losing a game with a huge rushing margin:

That’s Steelers vs. Ravens in the 2020s for you. More accurately, that’s the Lamar Jackson era as to this day you still have to question Jackson’s arm and ability in games like this, another big one with first place in the AFC North on the line and the Ravens having a tougher remaining schedule.

Jackson won his last two starts against the Steelers in 2024, but his rest of career numbers and moments have been poor to say the least. In this game, he didn’t break 100 passing yards until the fourth quarter as the Ravens were leaning on the ground game with Derrick Henry and Keaton Mitchell also broke a 55-yard run.

There were some bright moments for Jackson in the fourth quarter, but the Ravens never put it together for a touchdown drive while the Steelers floundered on offense late. There was a go-ahead touchdown to Isaiah Likely that was ruled a drop after Joey Porter Jr. helped knock the ball out before Likely got a third foot down or did a football move. That was a tough call without great clarity from the NFL on what a catch is in 2025.

That drive ended in no points, because after the Likely mistake on first down, the Steelers stopped Henry twice, then Mark Andrews possibly got in the way of a Jackson pass on fourth down intended for DeAndre Hopkins in the back of the end zone with 2:22 left.

But given one more chance with 1:56 left and 74 yards to go, Jackson led a very poor two-minute drill, taking 69 seconds just to move the ball 8 yards. Reaching the Pittsburgh 30 with 9 seconds left, any shot at a Hail Mary was denied when Alex Highsmith sacked Jackson to end the game and give the Steelers a 7-6 record and first place.

The Ravens have struggled to play complementary football all season, and Sunday was no different. Pittsburgh finally won a big game this year without relying on a ton of turnovers on defense. Rodgers was excellent for three quarters, and if Likely wasn’t in a funk with the end zone, it may have been wasted again by the defense.

But the Steelers have been getting the best of this rivalry, especially when the games are at their closest. That’s also why I had full confidence in Pittsburgh still finishing with a winning record, because I knew they’d never get swept by Baltimore, especially not this Baltimore team.

Now we’ll see if they can build on this win and take advantage of a home game with Miami next week. Maybe even get a break with the Bengals possibly sweeping Baltimore on Sunday to create more separation.

But the sportsbooks have finally come around to making the Steelers the favorites (-160 at FanDuel) to win the AFC North over Baltimore (+170) and Cincinnati (+1300). There’s a reason almost every 1-5 team fails to come all the way back to make the playoffs.

The Ravens are just too mistake prone this year. Similar to the Chiefs in that regard, another team in the AFC they can’t seem to beat when they have to.

Bears at Packers: Ben Johnson Was Right Again

Ever since the Bears hired coach Ben Johnson, he has done an incredible job of saying the right things time and time again. He just probably wishes he wasn’t right when he said last week that the 9-3 Bears are winning in spite of their passing game with Caleb Williams.

On Sunday in Green Bay with the No. 1 seed on the line and the lead in the NFC North, Johnson was very prescient as Williams struggled mightily early on while Jordan Love had some key passes down the field for big plays (including third downs) that paced the Packers to numerous leads in a game they never trailed.

But Williams did make some of his best plays late, and even tied the game in the fourth quarter before the Packers marched for a game-winning touchdown. I predicted a 27-20 win by Green Bay, and they were up 28-21 late with Williams driving for what could have been his sixth comeback in the final 2:00 this year as you had to think Johnson probably goes for 2 on the road the way he is from the Dan Campbell school of thought.

But after the run got stuffed on 3rd-and-1, Williams blew a good play call with a bad throw on fourth down and it was intercepted in the end zone to end the game. Just like that, the Bears (9-4) fell from the No. 1 to the No. 7 seed.

These teams will meet again in 12 days, but Williams is going to need to be a lot more efficient if the Bears are going to get a split here.

Bengals at Bills: Mr. Perfect Until He Has to Be

I can say this about most quarterbacks, but Joe Burrow is actually more likeable than his annoying fans make him out to be. Watching him on those shows like Quarterback S2 or Hard Knocks In-Season with the AFC North, you can see he’s a football junkie, a Batman fan, and just wants to win games. This league is also in need of a pocket passer who can still frequently throw for 300 yards and multiple touchdowns without being a play-action merchant.

But where things get annoying with Burrow is the nonstop nicknames and the way the media has shoved him into conversations he doesn’t belong, or pretended that he’s a clutch player. I saw the “Joe Brrr” notification from the NFL app before Sunday’s snow game in Buffalo, and it was just earlier this week where I again pointed out that Burrow and his top wide receiver duo simply don’t win games in the clutch or shootouts despite being the most expensive trio in NFL history.

Burrow also has just one comeback win in the final 8:00 of a game in his career, and Sunday was no different. My other issues with Burrow stem from him being a sack merchant, often getting into trouble by looking for the big play. It should go against his nature as a perfectionist, which I think gets him into trouble in games where things don’t go well. He’ll let it snowball and not recover from a big mistake.

It all happened again on Sunday when Burrow went from playing a really fine game in Buffalo in the snow with four touchdowns on the first six drives. It was like he picked right up where he left off with his success against the Bills in 2022-23.

But one fateful pass from the Buffalo 33 with 5:35 left, leading 28-25, changed everything for the Bengals. Burrow tried to throw a quick pass, did a weird shot-put delivery on it, and Christian Benford was there for the 63-yard pick-six to put the Bills ahead 32-28.

Is Burrow so sick of me pointing out he has one comeback win in the last 8:00 that he tried to create a situation for himself to succeed? Then on the very next play, he got picked again on a battled ball at the line. The Bills took over at the Cincinnati 29, and of course Josh Allen, who got Dalton Kincaid back at a good time, was going to take advantage of the No. 32 defense on a short field by throwing another touchdown on fourth down.

Burrow answered quickly with his fourth touchdown pass to cut it to 39-34 with 2:13 left. That drive is another example of why stats that ignore the scoreboard show Burrow doing well in this situation when it was the two drives before this that mattered more when he had the picks.

But even after his defense sacked Allen to bring up 3rd-and-15, they gave up another 17-yard scramble to Allen, who also took off for a 40-yard touchdown earlier with inexplicably no defender in sight of his path to the end zone.

This was a very winnable game for the Bengals on the road to keep their season alive, but Burrow picked the worst time to make his worst play of the year. He crumbled instead of finishing the game, and given his history, it’s not that surprising.

He’s just not proven to be a closer yet, and this will be his third-straight missed postseason.

I still contend this is the worst Buffalo team since 2019, but if this is an AFC where they don’t have to worry about the Chiefs at all, don’t have to worry about going to Baltimore, and don’t have to worry about these Bengals, then Allen has no excuses left to not get to a Super Bowl.

Letting Drake Maye, Bo Nix, Trevor Lawrence, or C.J. Stroud get there before Allen does would be disastrous to his legacy.

Colts at Jaguars: Indiana Is Cursed in 2025

I was all in on the Jaguars to win this one despite being a 1.5-point home underdog. But you have to see Daniel Jones tear his Achilles on a different leg than the one he had the fractured fibula with. I’m not a doctor, so I can’t comment if that may have led to this the way Tyrese Haliburton’s calf injury led to his Achilles in the NBA Finals, but it’s just been that kind of cursed year for Indiana sports teams. Caitlin Clark also had a season-ending groin injury in a year her Fever had a shot in the playoffs.

The Colts would have had a shot in this AFC if they were healthy, but between Jones going down and Sauce Gardner getting injured shortly after they traded for him, it’s been a brutal stretch for the Colts. From 7-1 to 8-5 and little hope with that tough schedule left.

Worse, they don’t even have a healthy (even if temporarily healthy) Anthony Richardson to go to and see if he can give them anything for the playoff run. They might have to snag Joe Flacco away from the Bengals somehow.

But give credit to the Jaguars. They scored a lot of points on short fields set up by the defense like they’ve been doing this year. I actually think they can get to 12-5 given the schedule, which includes another game with battered Indy.

Crazy how you can go from 7-1 and averaging over 3.0 points per drive to potentially finishing with a losing record and an offense that’s barely top 10, if that, when you consider the Colts have to play the Seahawks, 49ers, Jaguars, and Texans.

Saints at Buccaneers: Tyler Shough Can Move Like That?

With all due respect to Taysom Hill, I don’t think your services are needed anymore in New Orleans. If Tyler Shough can move like that on his two rushing touchdowns in Tampa Bay, then there’s no reason he can’t keep the ball on some of those snaps they give to Hill.

Shough’s second touchdown run also completed the first game-winning drive of his NFL career as the Saints (+8.5) completed the 24-17 upset on the road despite the Bucs having more healthy weapons for Baker Mayfield, who struggled in this one.

But I would still argue Tampa Bay pissed this one away more than the Saints won it. Tampa Bay finished 2-of-7 on fourth down, so when you get 11 drives and end five of them on fourth down (plus one pick), that’s really brutal offense, and it’s not like these were 4th-and-desperate situations late in the game.

I don’t know if Todd Bowles wanted a bow with his points to take them, or if he thought this was the right strategy as these were the five fourth-down failures:

  • 1Q, tied 7-7, 4th-and-1 at NO 45: Bucky Irving lost 7 yards on a run.
  • 2Q, up 10-7, 4th-and-1 at NO 49: Tucker stuffed for no gain on a run.
  • 2Q, up 10-7, 4th-and-15 at NO 47: Mayfield incomplete pass (I guess they weren’t confident in the 65-yard field goal in the conditions)
  • 4Q, tied 17-17, 4th-and-2 at NO 46: Mayfield incomplete pass to Godwin (Saints drove for game-winning touchdown from there).
  • 4Q, down 24-20, 4th-and-4 at TB 26: Mayfield 3-yard pass to Cade Otton for a turnover on downs to end game.

The last one is obvious, the one before halftime makes sense given the field position, I guess. But those three short ones at midfield, out of field goal range, and not in a bad situation on the scoreboard? Might have been able to argue they should punt there and put the rookie QB on a long field.

The Buccaneers and Panthers are both 7-6 with two matchups to come. This thing is far from over in the NFC South if the Bucs are going to keep playing with their food like this.

Commanders at Vikings: For Who, For What?

I’ll never understand what the Commanders were doing with Jayden Daniels in 2025. He had a few injuries as a rookie, but his elbow injury this year was not necessary as it happened after Dan Quinn kept him in a blowout against Seattle far too long.

Then given this team was 3-9 and hadn’t won since Week 5, what’s the point of even playing him again this year? He returned Sunday, he was rusty against a complex defense, and he re-injured his elbow on an interception return play. Now they’ll probably sit him for the rest of the year, but he should have been on the bench in the Seattle blowout and this elbow stuff never should have happened.

You have to protect your best asset. I’m not sure Quinn makes it to 2026 as the defense didn’t get any better despite that being the side they needed to fix desperately. Now the offense is messed up as well.

Seahawks at Falcons: Road Warriors Strike Again

This was actually a 6-6 game at halftime before the Seahawks blew it open in the third quarter with Rashid Shaheed scoring his first Seattle touchdown on a 100-yard kickoff return, then a Bijan Robinson fumble led to the first of two JSN touchdown catches as the rout was on.

The Seahawks (10-3) have been strong on the road all year, and now they get to face the Colts without Daniel Jones before their huge Thursday night rematch with the Rams in Week 16 when they’ll have a chance to take the NFC West lead.

Broncos at Raiders: The Worst Beat of the Year

Given how horrible the Broncos were on offense in the 10-7 win against this team last month, you have to give them credit here. Granted, 7 of the 24 points were a punt return touchdown, but they only had 7 possessions in this game and they gained 81, 41, 47, 91, and 90 yards on the five drives that weren’t limited by the clock and situation at the end of each half. They were sustaining drives with ease.

Some bettors just wish they would have gained 4 more yards on their last snap, because that left enough time for the Raiders, who trailed 24-14 with as little as 0:05 left, get into field goal range after an absurd penalty for trying to stay on top of a receiver who was down extended the game one more down. Then Pete Carroll decided to kick the 46-yard field goal, it was good with 0:00 left, and the Raiders (+7.5) covered the spread in a ridiculous 24-17 final.

I’ve had a pretty good spread week (8-5 ATS), but that was definitely the worst beat of the season on one of these.

Rams at Cardinals: Someone’s Winning in Fantasy on These Cardinal Blowouts

You just know there’s someone out there winning their fantasy league or taking down DFS contests (they still run those, right?) by stacking Jacoby Brissett and Michael Wilson (11/142/2 on Sunday). All that sweet volume and very little real-life NFL value because they either get blown out like they did here to the Rams (45-17), or they come up short in the fourth quarter of a one-score loss.

But this one was the blowout as the Rams led 45-10 at one point. Big bounce-back effort after last week’s loss in Carolina.

Titans at Browns: Shedeur Gets Some Stats, Cam Ward Gets the Win

This Toilet Bowl between the Titans (1-11) and Browns (3-9) actually proved to be far more interesting and nuanced than most Week 14 games. I can’t believe I’m about to write as many words on a Week 14 game between these teams as I am.

It was in theory a matchup of what were supposed to be the top two quarterbacks in the 2025 draft before Shedeur Sanders fell to the fifth round. I knew he’d try to shine in this one against the worst team in football, and to some extent, he did. Sanders finished with 364 passing yards, 3 touchdown passes, 1 touchdown run, 1 interception, and he led a comeback attempt in the final 5:00 that came up a hideous 2-point conversion try short of tying the game.

Meanwhile, Cam Ward only completed 14-of-28 passes for 117 yards, 2 touchdowns, and one pick against that tough Cleveland defense. But Myles Garrett, much like last week against the 49ers, got the lone sack for the defense.

It was also another game where the rest of the team sold out the defense with poor field position as the Titans had touchdown drives of 53, 38, and 8 yards as well as a 6-yard field goal drive without a first down gained.

But late in the game with the Titans up 31-17 thanks to those short fields (and a big day for Tony Pollard with 161 yards and two scores), we saw the shortcomings of the new down 14 strategy that I was just questioning last week. What happens if a team misses both conversions and is still down 2 late? That’s what happened to Cleveland in large part because they called a weird trick play for the final one instead of letting Sanders do something more conventional.

Let’s just note that Cleveland scored that second touchdown with 1:03 left. That left plenty of time to recover an onside kick and win the field goal as I said teams will do in the NFL as  you can’t really time out when you get a touchdown. Then had the Browns made the first 2PC, if you score with 1:03 left, look at how much time that leaves the Titans to go get a game-winning field goal with the new kickoff rules and the improved range for kickers with the new k-balls. The same is true if they had only tied the game at 31.

So again, I understand why teams do the down 14 thing. I just don’t think it’s all that advantageous because of what it does to the game state. For one, I don’t like the prospects of having to convert a do-or-die 2PC at any point in the game, so I’d rather avoid that. Then if you get the first one and you’re down 6, that should trigger the opponent to try better to add to the lead or run out the clock than if they had the cushion of a 7-8 point lead. Then there’s the end-game scenario of taking a 1-point lead quite possibly with plenty of time for the other team to use 4-down football to set up a game-winning field goal.

Yeah, I’m just never going to be a big fan of that, and games like this make it look even less attractive to me. Going to overtime has never actually been less scary than it is now with the new rules there. There’s no real sudden death unless you majorly fuck up like a pick-six or safety on the first drive.

Alas, this was the Toilet Bowl, so it didn’t really matter what these teams did. Just a game with far more points – I believe the total closed at a season-low 33.0 – and intrigue than it ever deserved to have for Week 14.

Also, it’s going to make the Shedeur cult even crazier because he’s delivering the big plays they said he would in the NFL. Just don’t let them hear that some have been filled with YAC, or that he’s only done it against the two worst NFL teams this season (Vegas and Titans) and lost 26-8 to a San Francisco team that was missing its two best defenders.

Cults don’t like pesky facts like that.

Dolphins at Jets: The Streaks Continue

He didn’t have to do much in this one, but Tua Tagovailoa is now 7-0 as a starter against the Jets after the Dolphins quickly opened up a 21-0 lead and held on for the 34-10 win. The Jets were stuck playing UDFA rookie Brady Cook from Missouri after a Tyrod Taylor injury.

With the loss, the Jets (3-10) have been eliminated from the playoffs for the 15th season in a row, the longest active drought in the four major American sports leagues.

Next week: The Week 15 schedule is decent even if the island games are not. The Bucs need to pick things up at home against Atlanta on Thursday night. We’ll see a Baltimore-Cincy rematch from Thanksgiving that’s lost some luster with both losing Sunday. Chargers-Chiefs could be similar if the Chargers lose on Monday night. Bills-Patriots is the big one, and we’ll see if NE can win the AFC East or if Buffalo can try to repeat its 2021 success by coming back to beat them and eventually destroying them in the wild card.

Green Bay vs. Denver is decent for a non-conference game between possible No. 1 seeds. Lions at Rams might be more fun to watch for three quarters though. Colts should get rocked in Seattle. I’ll be writing this early while we’re stuck with Cowboys vs. Vikings on SNF. Steelers usually win at home on MNF, and Miami usually loses on the road under McDaniel to .500+ teams, but we’ll see how that one goes to end the week now that the Steelers will get props this week instead of being in that underdog role.

NFL 2025 Week 14 Predictions: The Day the Whole AFC Went Away Edition

It’s a really critical NFL Week 14 in the AFC with games like Colts vs. Jaguars, Bengals vs. Bills, Steelers vs. Ravens, and Texans vs. Chiefs.

It could be the day we circle back to as the day the Colts blew their shot in the AFC South, or the day the Steelers set themselves on the path to their first losing record since 2003, or even the day the Chiefs fell to 6-7 and went on to miss the playoffs.

Or it could jumpstart those teams on a run to the playoffs. We’ll just have to watch and see what happens today.

This Week’s Articles

The first link is a 6,000-word review of where the contenders stand right now, and why 2025 has been such a weird year for so many favorites struggling. Lots of talk about regression in turnovers, close games, and easy schedules.

The QB rankings look at Joe Burrow’s odd return, the curious case of Bryce Young, and the Vikings somehow found a quarterback even worse than J.J. McCarthy.

The NFL Week 14 picks have more detailed picks in what I like for Colts-Jags, Steelers-Ravens, Texans-Chiefs, and who I like to throw for more yards between Shedeur Sanders and Cam Ward.

NFL Week 14 Predictions

Those Cowboys tricked me again. Same old Dallas: Allowed 44 points in a must-win type of game, George Pickens played poorly, and now they have to hope for the Eagles to collapse, which is possible this year.

MIA-NYJ: Is Tua really 7-0 against the Jets? Let’s make it 8-0.

SEA-ATL: Seahawks can be tricky with the spread but I think a 7-point win from that defense isn’t asking for much. They should make it hard on Kirk Cousins.

NO-TB: Bucs already beat them decisively on the road and have more weapons available now. Backdoor cover is always a possibility but I think they score enough to win by 10+ and get the sweep.

WAS-MIN: It sounds like Jayden Daniels is back, so I’m going with him to end this losing streak for the Commanders.

IND-JAX: Colts haven’t won in Jacksonville since 2014 and I think that streak lasts another year. Offense is struggling and the Jags can get the turnovers/pressure and have been scoring 25+ every week since the bye.

PIT-BAL: The old hedge pick, you never know with this rivalry that loves 3-point games. It sounds like we are getting Aaron Rodgers vs. Lamar Jackson for the first (last?) time in the NFL, though neither comes in playing that well. Can the Steelers stop Derrick Henry after giving up 249 yards last week? I’d be more inclined to pick the Steelers if they didn’t already look bad in their last two games against the Ravens, who seem to have their QB on the right page to deal with this overpaid, disappointing defense.

TEN-CLE: It doesn’t really say anything about Sanders vs. Ward to me. Just says the Browns have better coaching and a much better defense.

CIN-BUF: I’m hedging again as I think the Bengals had the Bills’ number in 2022-23, though we haven’t seen any other matchups outside of that. But the Bills are usually a home winner. They just rarely make it look pretty this year, and the Bengals have been playing better defense the last few games.

DEN-LV: We had to sit through their garbage 10-7 game on TNF a few weeks back. Hard to imagine the Denver offense makes it look that bad again in the afternoon window.

CHI-GB: Packers are home, Jayden Reed is back, and I think they find a way to win by 7 as I just don’t trust the Chicago passing game enough against a defense that has stepped up to most occasions this year. I know Chicago played them well last year, high stakes with the No. 1 seed up for grabs, and GB has been bad at covering spreads like this. But something just tells me GB 27-20.

LAR-ARI: Cardinals have played a lot of teams tough before losing. But I think the Rams roll and show last week was just a blip.

HOU-KC: I believe after Super Bowl 59 I said the next time the Chiefs had to face an elite defense without multiple OL starters, I can’t trust them to win anymore. Here we are, season likely on the line, and they get the No. 1 Houston defense in a game where they’ll be down 3 OL starters, including both tackles. That’s brutal timing, and the Texans are playing well too as a team. Chiefs play much better at home on defense which should be the key to grinding this one out. But Houston has held all but two teams under 21 points, so it’s just a really hard defense to score on and I could already see Nico Collins converting some 3rd-and-12 catch to ice the clock in a 20-17 final for the Texans. Prove me wrong, KC.

PHI-LAC: Going with the Eagles to end their 2-game slide. I still don’t trust the Chargers in games like this and Herbert is only a week removed from surgery. Think he panics to avoid a hit and gets picked.

2025 NFL Stat Oddity: Week 13

It was already a wild start to NFL Week 13 with the underdogs going 4-0 on Thanksgiving and Black Friday. Too bad we couldn’t get Rams-Panthers on Saturday in a national window for people to see the biggest upset of the week take place. That’s the kind of game that ends your MVP campaign if it was in prime time a la Tom Brady (2021) and Brock Purdy (2023).

Alas, we’ve had 8 games with a comeback opportunity through 15 games so far, and no double-digit comebacks yet. Sounds like a good spot for the Patriots to come back from 10 down in the fourth quarter to get Drake Maye his first 4QC against the terrible Giants, or maybe it’ll be Jaxson Dart’s moment with the way this week has gone.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Rams at Panthers: Game of the Week

That’s why they play the games. You wouldn’t have guessed the Panthers (+10) would be able to take down the Rams if you watched these teams play in prime time last week, but befitting of the holiday start to Week 13, another big upset was on tap thanks to the great equalizer that is turnovers.

If the Rams protect the ball better and stop the Panthers from scoring two touchdowns on fourth downs, including the game winner, then they win this game quite easily. But after a week where I got into it with the Matthew Stafford fans for saying his MVP case was weak, he played his worst game of the season and was the main reason they lost here.

Even if you excuse the red-zone pick for Stafford on a deflected ball at the line, he still threw a pick-six, and he still fumbled in game-tying field goal range late in the game. Those are very costly mistakes.

Beyond that, he was getting boosted again by a heavy dose of play-action passes, a running game that produced 153 yards on 20 carries, and even on a go-ahead 89-yard touchdown drive in the fourth quarter, it was 59 yards from the running backs on the ground and 31 yards by Puka Nacua on a brilliant one-hand catch that may have been the catch of the year before the one Treylon Burks made for Washington at night. Far better catch than throw by Stafford.

So, he was just a bit off for much of the game, and maybe this is the type of thing he needed after everyone was blowing smoke up his ass and the Rams’ ass this year. But I was never buying it with an MVP case built around an unsustainable TD-INT ratio, one of the worst stats out there. I know Matthew Stafford’s game. He didn’t magically learn how to stop throwing picks at 37.

As for Carolina, it certainly complicates how you view Bryce Young in this offense. He was money in just about every big spot in this game, including icing it on third down instead of giving Stafford the ball back in a 31-28 game. He won a shootout against what people were viewing as the best team in the NFL. He gave the Chiefs and Eagles all they could handle last year too, so maybe playing high-stakes football for Alabama has him prepared for these matchups.

But he’s so tough to figure out as that’s now 5 game-winning drives in 2025, and 11 of his 13 wins in the NFL are with a game-winning drive. When he’s not doing that, he’s usually averaging a poor YPA and/or struggling to throw for 200 yards, so again, it’s very hard to say what the Panthers should do with him.

But these types of wins are likely going to get him a fifth-year option in Carolina and keep him around as the Panthers try to return to the playoffs for the first time since 2017. It’s one thing to come back against the Falcons (redundant). A game like this against what was the No. 1 scoring defense – that’s Houston now – is big time.

Props to the Carolina defense too for coming up with those takeaways. They’re playing hard for Dave Canales.

Bills at Steelers: The Old Man in Winter

The 2025 Steelers have had some of the usual “Same Old Steelers” games already. Winning by the skin of your teeth against the Jets in Week 1, blowing a winnable game in Cincinnati to Flacco, stepping up against the Colts’ top-ranked offense, clowning the Browns, and losing a wild one to the Bears on the road with their rookie coach.

But if there’s something that feels different and feels off, it’s the way they’ve totally shit the bed in the second half of games they were in early with contenders. Against the Seahawks, Packers, Chargers, and Bills, the Steelers were cumulatively ahead 40-29 at halftime and were outscored 88-19 in the second half to go 0-4 in those games.

The contenders have routed this team after halftime all year, and that feels different to me. Sunday was maybe the worst yet as the Steelers turned a 7-3 halftime lead over Buffalo to a 23-0 rout in the second half. It all started with that strip-sack Joey Bosa produced against Aaron Rodgers, who again was struggling to find any open receivers on a cold, windy day. He got bloodied on that hit, and he was only more ineffective from there after a poor first half too.

Mason Rudolph came into the game, and just like last week in Chicago, he threw a pick to the deep left sideline on his first drive. Then Rodgers returned and the Steelers still never scored another point. Their only touchdown came on a 39-yard drive as the defense at least produced some early takeaways for Buffalo, but the second half was a different story.

Pittsburgh was supposed to run the ball well in this matchup after showing good run blocking and concepts in Chicago last week. But against Buffalo’s poor run defense, the Steelers put up 58 yards. Meanwhile, Buffalo rushed for 249 yards, the most in Pittsburgh by any team since the Bills did it in 1975 with you know who (Juice) leading the way that day.

James Cook had 144 yards, which is more than the 123 passing yards Josh Allen had. Allen also rushed for 38 yards and a touchdown. But maybe the most depressing part of this was that the Bills had their backup offensive tackles in the whole game, and the Steelers still gave up this kind of record rushing performance against them. They didn’t sack Allen once on his 23 throws. They were more interested in barking and fighting after plays than doing anything productive in the second half.

Just another incredibly poor finish that led to about more boos than I can remember at Heinz Field (screw that renaming). It really does feel like this could be the season where they finally part ways with Tomlin if things don’t end well. It’s trending towards a 9-8 finish at best where they’ll need some help from other teams to beat the Ravens.

The standard has fallen off years ago, but it’s getting harder to recognize this team with a bunch of over-the-hill veterans who are unlikely to get better as the season goes on, and the weather gets colder and the bodies have to endure more pain.

Same OLD Steelers.

Broncos at Commanders: They Can’t Keep Getting Away with This

The 2025 Broncos truly are deserving of the “He can’t keep getting away with this!” meme from Jesse Pinkman in the final season of Breaking Bad. If you thought the 2024 Chiefs won close games by thin margins, these Broncos have set an NFL record with nine straight wins when trailing at some point in the game. They’ve also won seven of their last eight games by no more than 4 points, and they’ve won their last four games by 1-3 points each.

They weren’t expected to get much of a push from Washington (+5.5) on a night where Patrick Surtain II returned and Jayden Daniels was still out for the Commanders, but they got pushed all the way to a game-deciding two-point conversion in overtime by a 3-8 team.

Washington even had to overcome some pretty brutal officiating mistakes on the final drive of regulation just to tie the game, like a bad grounding penalty and a missed trip on Denver. But Mariota, who is not very good in these situations, delivered with an incredible play on fourth down in overtime to escape a sack and get a pass off that at least drew DPI to extend the game. But after throwing a touchdown on fourth down, Mariota’s 2PC pass was knocked down at the line by Nik Bonitto. Had he gotten that pass over him, it’s likely caught for a game-winning score.

That’s just how thin the margins have been for Denver this year. The Broncos are 10-2, but I find it very hard to trust this team in January. The nicest thing I could say is Bo Nix wasn’t bad in this game and it wasn’t an eyesore like the Raiders game on TNF a few weeks back. But it definitely wasn’t the efficient performance you’d expect against a team that hadn’t won in many weeks.

We’ll learn a lot more about this team in the coming weeks when it finishes with the Packers, Jaguars, Chiefs, and Chargers. That should tell you if they can be trusted in the playoffs or if they’ve already used up their luck with a 6-1 record at GWDs already this year.

Texans at Colts: AFC South Is Officially Three-Team Race

Once 0-3, the Texans are 7-5 and right back in the AFC South race after a controversial 20-16 win in Indianapolis. It was a chance for the No. 1 defense to prove its worth against what had been the best offense in the NFL this season. It was also a big game for C.J. Stroud, returning from a concussion.

But it’ll definitely be the game that Colts fans remember for some controversial officiating. I didn’t watch enough of the game to truly comment on everything going on there, but Houston’s game-winning drive to break the 13-13 tie alone had quite a lot of shady stuff:

  • On a 3rd-and-15 at the Indy 25, it looked like the Texans got away with a delay of game after not beating the play clock on time.
  • On that same play, Kenny Moore was flagged for DPI even though it looked like he had no significant contact whatsoever on the receiver, who flailed a bit at the end to try selling it, so that’s a huge penalty on 3rd-and-15.
  • After Nico Collins rushed for a 7-yard touchdown, the extra point sure looked like it was no good, but they said it was.

The Colts had two drives to answer that touchdown, but the Houston defense rose to the occasion both times, stuffing Jonathan Taylor for a huge 5-yard loss that led to the Colts kicking a field goal, and then stopping Daniel Jones on three consecutive passes at the Houston 31 with 1:45 left. Then the offense put it away with some runs to hold on for the 20-16 win.

Very interesting division race with the Colts (8-4), Jaguars (8-4), and Texans (7-5). The Colts have to go to Jacksonville next week where they haven’t won in over a decade, and the Texans have to go to Arrowhead on Sunday night where their season ended last year.

We’ll see what comes of it as maybe Jacksonville is the horse to back right now with Jones’ fractured fibula and the schedules remaining for these teams. But with Houston’s defense and experience of winning this division the last two years, it’s also hard not to believe in the Texans. In fact, I think if they can beat KC, they’ll get to 11-6 maybe.

Raiders at Chargers: Herbert’s Hand

The Chargers pulled away late for a 34-14 win over the hopeless Raiders, but all eyes will be on the news for Justin Herbert’s hand injury. He fractured his left non-throwing hand and needs surgery. How do you play a week after that? I guess we’ll find out with the Chargers hosting the Eagles next Monday night in a big one.

But yeah, nothing I can say about the Raiders that the Chargers’ social media team didn’t already do better.

49ers at Browns: Not Déjà vu for Brock Purdy

Cleveland’s upset over the Browns in 2023 in one of Brock Purdy’s worst games ever had me nervous about this one. Compared to 2023, the Browns have a stronger defense and the 49ers are worse on both sides of the ball.

But the fear was all for naught as the 49ers won 26-8. Granted, their three touchdown drives covered a grand total of 64 yards as the offense and special teams (mostly the ST) sold out the defense with short fields three times. The 49ers only averaged 3.9 yards per play, but to their credit, they had no turnovers, were 11/17 on third down, and Myles Garrett only got the one single sack for the defense.

All in all, not a bad day unless you’re Jauan Jennings, who is being called a “hoe” now by fellow players after a couple of recent incidents.

As for the Cleveland offense, I think the scouting profile on Shedeur Sanders is looking accurate. He’ll get you some big plays like the 34-yard touchdown pass to Harold Fannin before halftime, but he’s got inconsistency issues, takes deep sacks, and the scrambling isn’t all there. A work in progress they’ll likely keep working out instead of going back to Dillon Gabriel, but Sanders can’t save this offense this season.

Vikings at Seahawks: Not the Sam Darnold Revenge Game I Had in Mind

I really thought Sam Darnold would stick it to the Vikings to show them the mistake they made in letting him go and going with J.J. McCarthy, who was out again with a concussion for this one, putting the spotlight on undrafted rookie Max Brosmer.

But Darnold didn’t throw a touchdown pass. He only threw for 2 more yards (128) than Brosmer in another hard-to-watch game in 2025. JSN didn’t even have a catch in the first half as I assume Brian Flores employed the old Belichick strategy of taking away a No .1 receiver and making the others beat you.

But Brosmer on the road against that defense was enough on his own to beat the Vikings in this 26-0 shutout. He really just had to avoid the big mistakes in this one as his defense was keeping him in it. They got a strip-sack of Darnold, putting the ball at the Seattle 13. But on 4th-and-1 from the 4, Brosmer blew the game up by not just taking a sack before he let go of the ball right to a Seattle defender for an 85-yard pick six. That was basically the game.

Brosmer threw three more picks in the second half, and the Seattle offense didn’t find the end zone until the fourth quarter. Not that they needed any offensive touchdowns in this one.

The Vikings are just that big of a mess at the most important position. I miss the days when they had a veteran journeyman under center.

Falcons at Jets: Again, Not Serious Teams

The Atlanta Falcons have basically done nothing but disappoint us since a certain 28-3 lead, but I’m really going to remember the 2025 team as a special kind of disappointment. I thought Jeff Ulbrich’s defense would humble Aaron Glenn’s team as a way to stick it to the Jets where he was the interim coach last year. That his pass rush would overwhelm Tyrod Taylor, who is basically a deluxe version of Justin Fields with a lot of the same flaws in winning close and high-scoring games and taking sacks.

Instead, Taylor only took 2 sacks, he hit a deep touchdown to Adonai Mitchell after the DB fell down, and he led a game-tying touchdown drive (his 10-yard scramble score tied it), then after three of the quickest three-and-out drives you’ll ever see in a tied game, the Jets set up Nick Folk for a 56-yard field goal to win it 27-24 at the gun.

That’s the fourth blown lead for the Falcons this year in the fourth quarter, and they are 0-6 at GWD opportunities. I’m not convinced Raheem Morris needs to come back next season.

Cardinals at Buccaneers: Same Old Jacoby

Again, is there anything more reliable than the Cardinals this year? Jacoby Brissett has come here to do two things: Throw for 300 yards and throw a touchdown pass to Trey McBride. Once he’s accomplished those things, it’s time to fail on the game-winning drive as he did once again in a 20-17 loss in Tampa, going 4-and-out inside his 20.

Not the biggest game from Baker Mayfield, but he got Bucky Irving back, who scored and had 61 rushing yards, Chris Godwin also had 78 yards in his best game since he was injured last year.

Bucs still have No. 4 seed one-and-done team written all over them if you ask me, but we’ll see if they can stay healthy the rest of the year.

Saints at Dolphins: Tyler Shough’s First Clutch Attempt Is a Pick-Two

The Saints are 0-5 at 4QC/GWD attempts this year, and the first one for rookie Tyler Shough will be memorable for all the wrong reasons. Getting the ball back in a 19-11 game, Shough led the touchdown drive, but when it came time for the typing 2PC, the Saints’ false start pushed it back to the 7. That led to a shallow throw by Shough that was picked off and returned the distance by Minkah Fitzpatrick for a pick-two to put the Saints down 21-17.

But there was still 1:17 left as teams down 8 don’t take their dear sweet time to score the way people pretend this week. Sure, things were bleak with needing the onside kick recovery, but they got it to work out. Just like that, Shough had 75 seconds and a timeout to drive 55 yards for the game-winning touchdown.

But he was stuffed on a 4th-and-1 sneak that had no real push or momentum to it. Just like that, the threat was over and it’s another loss for the Saints.

Jaguars at Titans: Getting 1-16 Vibes

In noting Tennessee’s lucky ass win against the Cardinals this year, you have to wonder if that will help this team avoid 0-17 as it’s just been pitiful at scoring points and coming even close to a win. I still don’t think that highly of the Jaguars, but they led this one for the last 46 minutes before winning 25-3.

Tennessee will not be an attractive head coach job in 2026.

Next week: We’re going to learn a lot starting Thursday night with Cowboys vs. Lions to see which of those teams is serious about the playoffs. On Sunday afternoon, Bengals at Bills suddenly takes on more importance with the Bengals needing to run the table with Joe Burrow back. The Colts have to win in Jacksonville, which they haven’t done in over a decade. The Steelers and Ravens continue their rivalry for first place in the AFC North with four games to go. In the late window, all eyes on Bears at Packers for possibly the No. 1 seed if you can believe it. Then it’s Houston at Kansas City on SNF, and the first thing to check will be that OL injury report for the Chiefs in a must-win game. MNF isn’t bad either with Eagles-Chargers, two shaky teams. A lot to look forward to.

2025 NFL Stat Oddity: Week 12

The NFL Week 12 schedule delivered with three games going to overtime where taking the ball first or second was a debate. We also had a 21-point comeback in a game that maybe you should have expected it since one team has consistently been putting in half-assed efforts this year.

But I still heavily lean towards going on defense first in overtime with the new rules. This way you know exactly what you need on offense, you probably will have enough time to move the ball downfield using all four downs, any part of the field you want, and that’s the kind of football we rarely ever see in the NFL. You’re usually working against a major time constraint at the end of a half in the hurry-up offense. Not so much here.

Alas, the Jaguars and Lions both got the ball first and won their games after a score and defensive stop. But not the Colts. They actually let Patrick Mahomes touch the ball last like Kyle Shanahan did in Super Bowl 58 and he made sure they never saw the ball again. Who you’re playing and the context of the game still matter for your overtime decision, but in most cases, I think you’d be better to go on defense first just like they did in college for years. When there’s no sudden death anymore on that first drive? Not a hard choice.

We had seven games with a comeback opportunity this week (six on Sunday). Pretty good drama except for one of the worst Sunday Night Football games.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Colts at Chiefs: Game of the Week

The Chiefs had been the only winless team (0-5) in one-score games this year, and that’s why I think it was important for them to win in adverse conditions on Sunday instead of easily pushing past the Colts by double digits like their other wins this year.

Sure, you don’t want to have a tipped ball getting intercepted by a lineman on the first throw of the game. You don’t want the refs calling bullshit facemask penalties on your right tackle to take a touchdown off the board when he’s a penalty machine enough on his own without phantom calls. You don’t want to fumble in the red zone while you’re still down 20-9 in the fourth quarter, finishing the game minus-2 in turnovers (2-0) and minus-4 in sacks (4-0).

But those mistakes are the reason this game was a grind that the Chiefs needed overtime to win 23-20, a game where they never technically led for any seconds before Harrison Butker’s fifth field goal of the day went through in OT.

Still, I think it’s the kind of clutch win against a good team (Colts were 8-2 and coming off a bye week) that the Chiefs can build from as they accomplished several good things in this game:

  • Mahomes threw for 352 yards, ran for 30 more, and limited his 4 sacks to just 6 lost yards.
  • Kareem Hunt paced the offense with 30 carries for 104 yards as the Chiefs ran 91 plays to 50 for the Colts, gained 494 yards, and held the ball for 42:35.
  • Despite the Colts getting corners Sauce Gardner and Charvarius Ward together for the first time, the Chiefs found ways to get Rashee Rice (141 yards) and Xavier Worthy (59 yards) open for 200 yards as they led the way instead of a 36-year-old Travis Kelce (43 yards).
  • The defense shut down Jonathan Taylor, holding him to 58 yards on 16 carries with nearly half of those yards coming on one run (27 yards).
  • Alec Pierce had been hot for Indy but was limited to a single 26-yard catch.
  • Daniel Jones was ice cold to finish this game, and the Colts went three-and-out on four straight drives to end it against a KC defense that was No. 24 in three-and-out rate this season.

This is the kind of gut-check win that has defined this run of success for the Chiefs. But it may have all been for naught in overtime after the Chiefs faced a 3rd-and-7 following a 3-yard run by Clyde-Edwards Helaire. Seriously, 2nd-and-10, season the line, and you’re going inside from the shotgun with CEH for 3 yards?

But that’s when Mahomes delivered his most important completion of the season for 31 yards deep to Worthy. Rice had another 20-yard play soon after that as this may have been his best NFL game ever as he finally established that quick connection that produces meaningful YAC in this offense. Then it was a matter of Butker hitting from 27 yards out, which he did for the 23-20 win.

The Chiefs still have some things to work on. But look around the rest of the NFL. Who doesn’t have flaws this year? They can build on this but it is a quick turnaround on Thursday against a Dallas team that can score and is playing with some confidence.

Meanwhile, the Colts (8-3) are in some trouble with the Jaguars a game behind and two games to come against each other. They could even fall out of the playoffs entirely, so the Chiefs may actually find themselves rooting for the Jags to win the AFC South since they actually have a H2H tie-breaker over a team in Indy.

Big missed opportunity from the Colts on a day where Jones was never sacked. Still, they kept going to him with the Chiefs shutting down the run and he didn’t deliver. It’s a problem after how good this offense was for half the season.

Eagles at Cowboys: The Most Half-Assed Team in the NFL

After six games this year, I said that the 2025 Eagles were one of the most half-assed teams in NFL history. A team that could drop 21 points by halftime and be lucky to only add a field goal in the second half like they did in Week 1 against Dallas when they won 24-20.

Well, I haven’t been keeping up with the stat as I see the Eagles haven’t been so bad at this in recent weeks. But Sunday was quite the spectacle as they penned their magnum opus: a 21-0 lead in Dallas in the first 20 minutes followed by the Cowboys outscoring them 24-0 the rest of the day. It’s the fourth time the Cowboys have erased a 21-point deficit to win, their largest comeback deficit in team history.

It’s incredible how this keeps happening to a team that’s trying to repeat. The Eagles scored three touchdowns on three drives before going punt, end of half, punt, punt, punt, missed field goal (56 yards), Saquon Barkley lost fumble, fumbled punt return, and a punt after Jalen Hurts was sacked on a key 3rd-and-2 in a 21-21 game.

Barkley finished with 22 yards on 10 carries and that fumble on a catch in Dallas territory in a tied game. The fumbled punt return actually didn’t end up hurting the Eagles as they stopped the Cowboys on 4th-and-goal from the 1, a curious decision as the Eagles didn’t look capable of putting together another scoring drive after this cold streak.

And they didn’t. Hurts looked like he might have something cooking before a 3rd-and-2 sack changed everything. The Cowboys got the ball back and big catches by Jake Ferguson and George Pickens (playing better than CeeDee Lamb this year) set up the field goal from 42 yards out to win the game with no time left.

The Cowboys had three pass plays of 43-plus yards to three different receivers in this game as they took advantage of some injuries in Philly’s secondary. But the offense has to take ownership on these dismal scoreless halves. They have way too much talent to be doing this, but this is what happens when your offensive coordinator has no clue what he’s doing.

I still don’t think the NFC East is in any jeopardy with the Eagles at 8-3 and the Cowboys at 5-5-1. Remember, no one has repeated as NFC East champs since the 2001-04 Eagles, so this game being the catalyst for another Philadelphia implosion would be an all-timer. But I don’t think we’re there.

However, this keeps Dallas alive in the wild card hunt, and it hurts the Eagles’ chances at that No. 1 seed. With the way this team is playing, taking Eagles first half ML, Bears full game ML on Friday might be a good call this week.

They seem to have forgotten games are 60 minutes long.

Giants at Lions: The Full Jameis Experience

How fun is the Jameis Winston experience when it’s like this? His touchdown catch from 33 yards out in the fourth quarter gave the Gants a 10-point lead, but that’s been their undoing all year. Sure enough, they did it again as Jahmyr Gibbs was incredible with multiple long touchdown runs in this game.

Then I can’t fault the Giants for going for the 4th-and-5 in a 27-24 game instead of kicking a field goal to go up 30-24, which is a 6-point lead, which is fool’s gold. My issue is they called some poor plays on second and third down, which led to the 4th-and-6. Gotta seize that moment as a touchdown there should win the game.

Instead, the Lions got the ball back, and sure enough, their kicker was good from 59 yards out to force overtime. Totally saved the day. Then after Gibbs exploded for 69 yards on the first play of overtime for a touchdown, Winston had his shot to answer and failed. Great fourth-down sack by Aidan Hutchinson to put a stamp on the 34-27 comeback win.

Buccaneers at Rams: First Half TKO

What can be said about SNF? It was one of the most pointless second halves I’ve ever seen in an NFL game as Baker Mayfield couldn’t return after a horrible decision to have him throw a miracle Hail Mary in a 31-7 game when he was already ailing. We’ll see if that costs this team a division title and playoff spot after their third-straight loss.

But just total control for the Rams from the start. Cade Otton’s weird bobbled catch, knees down, ball stripped away for a “pick six” quickly set this one on a path to a disastrous night for the Bucs. Just not giving themselves a fair shot to win.

But yeah, there was just a single field goal added after halftime as the Rams won 34-7. A game where both teams could have agreed to just kneel out the second half and be better for it.

Patriots at Bengals: Defensive Effort Wasted

The rare NFL game where both defenses scored a pick-six. You’re not surprised if Joe Flacco throws one of those, but Drake Maye doing it by lofting a horrible pass right to the Bengals’ defensive back was certainly unexpected.

But the Bengals wasted one of their best defensive efforts this year. Beyond the pick-six, they contained the running game well, and they came up with big stops in the red zone as the Patriots only had one touchdown drive.

But the Ja’Marr Chase suspension for spitting at Jalen Ramsey last week was a big one as Flacco could have used his best weapon in a game where multiple receivers were hurt, including a concussion for Tee Higgins. That left Flacco firing to a random cast on the final drive in a 26-20 game.

He converted a few fourth downs but not the last one to end the game as the Patriots escaped to a league-best 10-2 record. Are they actually that good of a team? I don’t think so. But they keep finding ways to win.

Steelers at Bears: Aaron Rodgers Misses Last Chicago Bout

We’ll see what comes of the Steelers’ season at 6-5, but maybe they’ll regret not letting Aaron Rodgers give it a go against the team he’s owned his whole career. Pittsburgh’s defense was bad in this game again outside of one pressure on Caleb Williams in the end zone that he exacerbated by giving up a strip-sack to T.J. Watt that was recovered for a touchdown.

The Steelers were up to their turnover tricks again, but I feel like they lost the game in three key places:

  • After the strip-sack, they got another turnover (hard to see) on a fumble at midfield, but instead of building on their 14-7 lead, they were stopped with Heyward on the Tush Push at midfield, and Chicago drove a short field for the game-tying touchdown. Big swing.
  • Mason Rudolph threw a pick on his first deep pass, then tried to get away with dink-and-dunk throws the rest of the way until he got strip-sacked in the late third quarter, which led to a Chicago touchdown and 10-point deficit.
  • Down 31-28, Rudolph had a couple of cracks at it and may have gotten it done for at least the tying field goal had the Steelers lined up properly (illegal formation penalty wiped out 22-yard scramble to midfield), then he has to do better on those last throws as Chris Bowell may have been able to make it from 60 to force overtime.

Just a disappointing day for Pittsburgh as it rushed for 186 yards and got a lot of YAC plays again on offense. But they let Caleb Williams get away with too many rough plays that they couldn’t capitalize on.

Vikings at Packers: What If Your QB’s Alter Ego Was One of a Functional Quarterback?

I think it would have been so funny if J.J. McCarthy’s “Nine” alter ego was a quarterback who only had good moments in games against Big Ten-region teams like the ones in his division. A trip to Green Bay (Wisconsin)? Sounds great.

But if Sunday was any indication of what kind of quarterback we’re dealing with here, he won’t be around many more years for the Packers to exploit him in Vikings-Packers games. Green Bay finally covered the big spread with ease this year in a 23-6 win that was never in doubt.

McCarthy threw for just 87 yards and that’s even worse when you take away 35 more yards from the 5 sacks where he flirted with safeties. All Minnesota could do was two long field goals on nine drives as McCarthy was picked twice to end the game.

Green Bay didn’t need to show much on offense to win this one comfortably.

Falcons at Saints: You Are Not Serious Teams

I picked the Falcons (+1.5) to win even without Michael Penix and Drake London because I just thought they were due a win, they’d turn things over to Bijan Robinson and the running game, and that pass rush could stop a rookie (Tyler Shough) in his third start.

Some of that was exactly right, but Kirk Cousins did his defense few favors by throwing a pick-six. Otherwise, the Saints’ offense 3 points on 10 drives. They even missed two field goals, so neither team looked very serious to me in a game between the NFC South’s worst teams.

We’ve fallen a far way from shootouts between Drew Brees and Matt Ryan. Then again, bringing out your quarterback on 4th-and-goal at the 1 so Taysom Hill can throw an incomplete pass to waste half of the third quarter does sound like something late-stage Sean Payton would have done too.

Jaguars at Cardinals: Same Old Script

Seemingly every Jacksonville game in 2025: Trevor Lawrence raises coach Liam Coen’s blood pressure with horrific turnovers, but the defense gets some timely pressures, someone with a private college-sounding name scores a touchdown, and they win by 1-3 points.

Seemingly every Arizona game in 2025: Jacoby Brissett throws a ton of passes, takes a late lead, the defense gives it up, and he can’t close the deal in a one-score loss.

Those two scripts collided on Sunday and the Jaguars moved to 7-4 with another 27-24 overtime win to the chagrin of other AFC fans as this team hasn’t played a lot of good football this year but keeps winning games like this.

They overcame 4 turnovers by Lawrence in this one, and that doesn’t include an ill-advised incompletion on 4th-and-1 that gave Arizona its chance for a game-tying field goal that forced overtime.

It was a little surprising to see the Jaguars want the ball first in overtime, but they made it work out. The offense got a 52-yard field goal, then Brissett reminded us why he’s now 7-25 at game-winning drives after throwing incomplete on 4th-and-4 at the Jacksonville 42.

Seahawks at Titans: 30-24? Really?

Have to pat myself on the back for this one and going with the first-half spread (Seahawks -6.5 or -7.5 depending when you placed it) as the best bet instead of the full-game spread, the Titans going under their team total, or thinking this might be the week for Rashid Shaheed to catch a long touchdown for his new team.

Instead, it was the JSN Show again with 167 yards and 2 touchdowns as the Seahawks led 16-3 at halftime, then 23-3 before eventually winning 30-24 with the backdoor cover open for Cam Ward, who still scored more points than I ever imagined in this one. Granted, the Titans had another return touchdown on a punt.

But these are the games where Seattle looks great. Beating up on the worst teams this year.

Jets at Ravens: Ho-Hum, the Ravens Won Again

Something’s just been off with the Ravens since Lamar Jackson came back. He struggled for a long time to get to 100 passing yards in this game, Derrick Henry only averaged 3.0 yards per carry, they were 2-11 on third down, and they were just fortunate to be playing the Jets, who never really get turnovers this year.

The Jets may have even been ready to pull off the upset as a 13.5-point underdog in Baltimore, but three key moments sunk them in the 23-10 loss:

  • Up 7-3 before halftime, Tyrod Taylor took a sack on 3rd-and-2 at the Baltimore 39 and the Jets had to punt instead of adding points.
  • After the Ravens took their first lead at 10-7 in the third quarter, the Jets failed on 4th-and-2 at their own 42, setting up the Ravens for a short touchdown drive and 17-7 lead. You don’t have Detroit’s offense anymore, Aaron Glenn. Punt there and make Baltimore earn it on a long field.
  • Down 20-10 with 6:58 left, Breece Hall fumbled in the red zone and that’s a wrap.

The Ravens (6-5) are above .500 for the first time this season but that doesn’t make them dangerous yet. Not playing like this on offense against bad teams.

Browns at Raiders: Chip Kelly’s Swansong

Yes, Shedeur Sanders winning his first start gets the headlines, but this one was really about the Cleveland defense sacking Geno Smith 10 times, which has led to offensive coordinator Chip Kelly getting fired Sunday night. He clearly didn’t have much of a line to work with, but he also never really had a plan for Ashton Jeanty either.

Meanwhile, the Browns did a good job of limiting Sanders’ exposure to the pass rush with just 1 sack on 20 throws while still giving him some freedom to make plays, like he did on an early 52-yard completion. I’m not sure what in the Kadarius Toney got into Jerry Jeudy on his fumble play, but that could have been another huge play for the offense to get points, and of course Sampson took a screen 66 yards for a touchdown in the fourth quarter to ice it.

But the Raiders are just hot garbage this year, so I’m not sure this really proves anything either way for Sanders, who should be glad he didn’t get drafted there.

Next week: Thanksgiving means island games coming out the ass this week with three on Thursday (pretty strong slate, to be fair) and a Black Friday game (Bears vs. Eagles) that takes on higher importance now. That’s actually the highlight of the week as the best Sunday can offer is Bills-Steelers, Texans-Colts, and I can’t believe they’ve stuck with Broncos vs. Commanders for SNF. One of those nights I start writing even earlier. Then Giants-Patriots on MNF, which isn’t the most compelling way to start December.

NFL 2025 Week 12 Predictions: As the AFC Turns Edition

We’re only one game into NFL Week 12 and it’s already a big result as the Houston Texans (6-5) proved they have the best defense this season, and they’re finally above .500 for the first time this season and back in the playoff hunt.

Meanwhile, I warned Buffalo fans all offseason that they would have to deal with turnover regression while not doing a ton to really improve the roster of a team that feasted on fumble recoveries, a schedule that saw them go 2-3 against winning teams, superior field position, and a historically low number of negative plays on offense that never felt sustainable with a quarterback known for his gunslinger ways.

Did I still ultimately buy into the Buffalo hype and predict them to finish as the No.1 seed? Yes. But I never had them going to the Super Bowl this year, and after Thursday night’s loss, it sure looks like they’ll have a hard time winning three straight road games to get there as the Patriots (9-2) are the team that’s taking advantage of an even easier schedule (3 games vs. 4th-place teams compared to first-place schedule) and should win the division.

But nothing is decided yet as we continue to see this weird AFC season where the Patriots, Colts, and Broncos have the best records, and it’s not looking good for the Ravens, Chiefs, and Bills to win those divisions and maybe not even make the playoffs in 2025.

We get a huge game in Kansas City this weekend with the Colts (8-2) coming off a bye week. I did a little preview in the NFL picks piece below for that one, but it’s such an intriguing matchup as the Colts have a lot of things in their favor:

  • Colts use a lot of play-action passing, which the Chiefs have been horrible against on defense.
  • Colts have Jonathan Taylor in peak mode, and the Chiefs have allowed James Cook to rush for over 100 this year.
  • Defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo has been one of the best at making things difficult for Mahomes and the offense.
  • Ability to play man coverage vs. KC wideouts with Sauce Gardner and Charvarius Ward (back healthy).
  • Colts had a bye week to prepare for the Chiefs, who have been labeled as predictable in recent losses to Bills and Broncos.

Alas, the Colts have been giving up sacks lately, and the Chiefs need to dial up blitzes and rely on the crowd noise to bother Daniel Jones, who was listed with a calf injury this week. Does his mobility get compromised and that leads to some sacks and takeaways for a KC defense that plays much better at home? We’ll see. Offense also needs to run the ball more when given so many light boxes, and they have ran it well in the last two meetings with Anarumo’s Bengals defenses.

It’s a huge game as a win can legitimize the Colts even more in the AFC. It could also spark the Chiefs to go on a run all the way through the postseason too. A lot on the line.

I wish that game was on at 4:25 PM as I’ll be stuck watching Bears vs. Steelers, which has a one-score game written all over it even if Aaron Rodgers doesn’t play. I’m thinking he will though since it is his last crack at the Bears and the injury isn’t to his throwing hand. But that’s a tough game with the leading defenses in turnovers, and that’s another pivotal one as the Steelers winning as a road underdog would be another blow to Baltimore’s hopes of storming back from 1-5 to win the AFC North.

This Week’s Articles

In the QB rankings this week, I talk about how the Chiefs are failing Patrick Mahomes by going in the opposite direction of QB dependence in a league that is increasingly about making it easier on the QB. Also talked about the sobering losses for the Seahawks and Lions as you just can’t trust Sam Darnold and Jared Goff in big games.

For the picks, I got a Colts-Chiefs parlay, and I say go nuts and bet on the sack props in Raiders vs. Browns.

NFL Week 12 Predictions

Yeah, I thought the Bills could win by a TD, but at least I was right about the under.

NE-CIN: It sounds like Joe Flacco is going to start again instead of Joe Burrow. Not sure I’d change my pick there because I think without Ja’Marr Chase, it’ll be hard to keep up with the Patriots when Cincy has the worst defense in the NFL.

PIT-CHI: Like I said, I think it’s a very close game, and the Bears have been pulling those off this year better than Pittsburgh. Just feels like a Tomlin letdown spot on the road.

NYJ-BAL: Unless I read a parody account, it sounds like Justin Fields has been benched for Tyrod Taylor. Good news. Ravens should still win but I like a backdoor cover for the Jets.

SEA-TEN: I just can’t see the Titans topping 14 points here unless Darnold keeps throwing picks to give them short fields. Seattle should bounce back here.

NYG-DET: No Jaxson Dart. I think the over is a good pick as the Lions should pile up points on a horrible defense in the dome. Less confident in the spread as Jameis could be good for the backdoor.

MIN-GB: Packers haven’t covered these big spreads all year, but from what I’ve seen of J.J. McCarthy, he isn’t going to play well on the road in Lambeau. Give me GB to finally cover one.

IND-KC: Ah, I hedged with the classic Chiefs win but don’t cover. Colts really could win it outright, but I’ll give the Chiefs one more bone at home in a virtual must-win situation. But the Colts have been a thorn in their side for 30 years.

CLE-LV: I’ll take Maxx Crosby and the Raiders to win the sack fest.

JAX-ARI: No real vibe on this one. Think Brissett moves the ball better than Lawrence and the Cardinals find a way at home.

ATL-NO: Another one I don’t have any strong lean for. Falcons are due a win. Turn the offense over to the run game and sack the inexperienced QB in his 3rd start.

PHI-DAL: I like the Philly offense to get on track against that defense and for the Philly defense to slow down Dak and those receivers.

TB-LAR: McVay usually has a good feel for what Bowles is doing. Still not enough weapons for the Bucs. I’ll take the Rams at home by 7.

CAR-SF: Biggest game for the Panthers in years. I think they can keep it close but I like a low-scoring game here.

2025 NFL Stat Oddity: Week 10

Week 10 in the NFL started with one of the worst games you’ll ever see in this league between the Broncos and Raiders. Sunday night ended with one of the worst games I’ve ever seen Aaron Rodgers play. Who knows what Monday night holds, but hopefully it’ll be better than a Sunday where the rise to power of Adolf Hitler and Donald Trump were both referenced during live NFL broadcasts. How fitting.

In all, we had eight games with a comeback opportunity, which is the most in the last four weeks but still not the 9+ we had every week in Weeks 1-6. Maybe Monday gets us there though I’m still going with the Eagles to win that one.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Colts vs. Falcons: Game of the Week

This might be the shortest edition of Stat Oddity I’ve ever written for a regular-season slate (2,800 words), but that’s because I didn’t sleep well Saturday night as I actually set my alarm to get up and watch this entire game. It’s the only international game I’ll be doing that for this year, and it was 100% worth it.

I thought both offenses were great early on, then once Daniel Jones threw that pick before halftime and both teams mismanaged the shit out of that clock, the game took a real turn. The pass pressure was dialed up on Jones, he’s making mistakes more akin to how we knew him with the Giants. But the Colts still have those great weapons like Alec Pierce and Tyler Warren, and of course Jonathan Taylor was a badass on Sunday. The 83-yard touchdown run was crazy, bad tackling, speed, the whole 9 yards.

But the Falcons certainly had their shot to win after taking a 25-22 lead on a great drive where their run game looked dominant. They had Jones in a 3rd-and-21 but still managed to let him scramble for 19 yards. With the Colts out of timeouts at 1:26, that snap needed to be the one that set up the Falcons to win. Instead, it led to 4th-and-2, and Warren came down with the risky throw to convert. The Colts eventually settled for a field goal and overtime after another grounding penalty on Penix.

In overtime, I feel like you want to go second now with these new rules. Know exactly what you need and get to play with all four downs to get it. Hopefully some decent time too so you don’t need to rush much. I think it’s also better to go second if you’re not the better offense as you might need that extra down.

Alas, the Falcons won the toss and wanted the ball first. After being gifted one first down on a poor holding penalty on the defense, they didn’t get another and punted. Ho-hum. The Colts didn’t have far to go for the winning field goal, but with that kicker, you’re much better off just going for the touchdown. Taylor provided that from 8 yards out and the game was over with him hitting 286 yards from scrimmage and 3 more touchdowns.

It’s not like Jones didn’t help earn the win, but this was probably the day where Taylor overtook him for the Colts’ MVP candidate. That was big time overseas and the Falcons are not a bad defense.

The Colts had a bye week before their showdown in Kansas City in Week 12, and they need it to fix up some things with their pass pro as Jones’ great sack rate is in the toilet after these last two games.

Meanwhile, I’d say it’s hard to believe the Falcons are 3-6 and haven’t won since the Buffalo win. But is it that hard to believe? These are the Falcons. They have their own brand of choking that only the Chargers can beat. They were 0-8 on 3rd down and 3-29 on their last three games. That’s inexcusable with these skill players.

But that’s Falconing. Still, the Colts outgained them 519-290 in yards, so the right team won in the end. Great game to watch from start to finish.

Bills at Dolphins: Super Bowl Hangover in Week 10?

I’m so used to Buffalo beating Miami that it’s still hard to believe this one happened the way it did. Sure, the Bills had another turnover regression moment with 3 giveaways, all in Miami territory, but it’s not like Tua Tagovailoa didn’t throw 2 picks too. He just didn’t have any sacks and the run game (197 yards) shredded Buffalo.

This is why you don’t give too much credit to Buffalo for beating Kansas City in the regular season. You have to do it in the playoffs, and the Bills sure looked like a team who was hearing everyone kiss their ass all week and they never had any intensity to step up for this game too. The Dolphins led 16-0 early and Buffalo never really threatened save for that first touchdown drive. But then they failed on the 2-point conversion (0/4 this year), so it was still a 10-point game before Miami added onto the lead.

I’ve been saying since September the Bills just don’t look right this year despite the No. 1 seed talk because of such a favorable schedule. Well, losing at home to the Patriots and losing on the road to Atlanta (hasn’t won since) and now Miami (poor team) was part of that easy schedule, and they’re 0-3 in those games. They may have even lost to Miami at home if not for that roughing the punter penalty in the 4th quarter of a tied game.

The Bills have a lot of issues, and I’ve been up too long this day to write about them all and how they relate to Josh Allen and his share of blame. That can wait for Wednesday’s QB rankings.

But the Bills are definitely struggling right now, and they’ll get a somewhat competent Tampa team next week to try to sort this out against.

Steelers at Chargers: Little Fight

You know it’s a rough night for the Steelers when Mike Tomlin’s defense had a more respectable outing than his offense and even his special teams. Chris Boswell missed a 45-yard field goal and they had another embarrassing muffed return that was fumbled to the Chargers.

But this was Aaron Rodgers’ first really bad game with the Steelers. In fact, it was one of the worst games of his career as only a garbage time touchdown drive saved some of the numbers from being in the bottom 3 of his long career for one game. Just never looked comfortable all night, missed some open receivers on big plays, ran backwards into the end zone for a safety early, and just looked pretty off. It happens, but that’s the first time he really shit the bed in a Steeler uniform.

But the defense did a respectable job against Justin Herbert and his receivers. Would have been even better if they could catch the interceptions thrown to them.

The Ravens are right on the Steelers’ heels now, so it’s only going to get tougher and the stakes higher. I don’t think the Steelers are a good team right now since they’re pretty incapable of playing complementary football. If they can ever show up on both sides of the ball for the same game, then they may have something in a goofy AFC this year where the Patriots, Colts, and Broncos are all 8-2.

But this team is flawed, and the lack of a good wide receiver besides D.K. Metcalf, who hasn’t even been that great, is a huge misunderstanding of what Rodgers is as a quarterback. That was always the concern, and that’s why this offense still has no real identity after 9 games.

Rams at 49ers: NFC West Juggernaut No. 1

The NFC West teams were all in battle against each other in the same window, and both games ended up being bloodbaths. The Rams jumped out 21-0 on the 49ers, which is usually not how Sean McVay vs. Kyle Shanahan goes. It’s also unheard of for the 49ers to mount a huge comeback win in these spots, so I’m surprised they even got it to 28-20 at one point early in the fourth quarter.

But the defense, missing studs like Nick Bosa and Fred Warner, never had an answer for Matthew Stafford, who remains red hot with his third-straight game of 4 touchdown passes and no picks.

Mac Jones quietly had a solid game too, but it never really mattered because of the way the Rams got off to that fast start.

Cardinals at Seahawks: NFC West Juggernaut No. 2

The other NFC West battle was over even earlier. The Seahawks were up 28-0 not even a full minute into the second quarter with DeMarcus Lawrence returning two fumbles from Jacoby Brissett for touchdowns. The Arizona offense was sitting on negative net points before finishing the game with net 8 points in garbage time.

Apparently, the 2025 Seahawks turned into the 2007 Patriots (Games 1-10 Version) during their bye week. I’m sure playing the Commanders and Cardinals has a lot to do with it, but Seattle looks pretty legit to me. Those games with the Rams, starting next week, should be special.

Lions at Commanders: Dan Campbell Takes Over

Well, I think playing a defeated Washington team that didn’t have Jayden Daniels and a team the Lions were looking for some playoff revenge for played huge factors in this 44-22 rout that helped Dan Campbell move to 13 straight wins and covers following a loss since 2022.

But who knew the best person to replace offensive coordinator Ben Johnson might be offensive coordinator Dan Campbell? He took over play-calling duties for this one and the Lions responded with 44 points on 8 drives (no punts) before running out the clock. Close to perfect with 546 yards to back it up.

Again, I think the state of the opponent mattered a lot. But Detroit could be peaking going into Philadelphia next week, a huge NFC showdown we never got to see last season.

Patriots at Buccaneers: TreVeyon and the Hendersons

The Patriots may have had about three good rushes all game long in Tampa, but two of them basically powered their only points of the second half after rookie TreVeyon Henderson scored on touchdown runs of 55 and 69 yards in a 28-23 win.

It took a Rhamondre Stevenson injury to finally see the speed we saw a taste of in the preseason from Henderson, but this wasn’t the only rookie who had a breakout game. Kyle Williams scored on a 72-yard touchdown catch that was mostly YAC to showcase his speed, so the Patriots are discovering weapons as the season goes on.

When I look at the Buccaneers, I can acknowledge that Emeka Egbuka is one of the most polished rookie wideouts ever. A gifted player with natural ability and real WR1 potential for years to come. But I also think the offense is quite obviously not the same when you don’t have Bucky Irving, Mike Evans, and Chris Godwin out there.

Baker Mayfield has also all but given up on scrambling since the 3rd-and-14 run against the 49ers, so I’m not sure what that’s all about. Hiding an injury? The fact is the Bucs were held to 16 points on 10 drives at home before their last touchdown had a strong odor of garbage time following Henderson’s huge run, which he didn’t have to necessarily score given the clock situation. But I can’t fault him for that one.

Henderson scored as many 55-yard touchdown runs in one half as the Patriots had (2) in every Tom Brady start in 2001-19 combined. That’s how special those plays are, and they certainly helped on a day where Drake Maye wasn’t his best, completing 16/31 passes with a red-zone pick that he forced in a spot where he actually would have been better off taking a sack (that’s ironic) in a 21-16 game late.

That gave Baker a chance to take the lead, something he’s done so well this year. But the pressure got to him on 4th down and the Bucs turned it over on downs before Henderson’s last big run.

Ravens at Vikings: McCarthyism May Not Be Sweeping the League in 2025

Yeah, we’ll keep saying J.J. McCarthy is young and needs a lot of developing. He certainly showed it in this game as he got worse the longer it went on. Meanwhile, the Ravens had a shaky start with a lot of field goals before finally finding the end zone after the Vikings barely coughed up a fumble on a kick return.

It took a lot for Lamar Jackson to keep his streak alive of 30 games with a touchdown pass, but he got there. Then the Vikings made it a one-score game anyway before the defense stopped McCarthy late.

Three straight wins for the Ravens (4-5) and they’re building confidence.

Jaguars at Texans: Game Over, Man

Yeah, I’m out on the Jaguars (5-4) as a playoff team this year. Blowing a 19-point lead in the fourth quarter to Davis Mills is exactly the kind of game that could trigger a losing streak and implosion to a season.

It’s not like the Jaguars were ever that far better than Houston in this game. They just feasted on field position early, then the defense took care of Trevor Lawrence late, including an unbelievable pick six to even cover the spread in the end.

Good to see a great defensive unit earn a win here as the Texans have been playing hard for DeMeco Ryans on that side of the ball. Just didn’t expect Mr. Long Neck to be the one to lead one of the greatest comebacks in franchise history while C.J. Stroud nursed a concussion.

Saints at Panthers: Attaboy for Tyler Shough

I knew you couldn’t trust the Panthers (-5.5) with a big spread but I didn’t think they’d lose this convincingly. The Saints took the lead with 9:21 left in the second quarter and never looked back in a 17-7 win. They shut down Rico Dowdle (18 carries for 53 yards), and as expected, Bryce Young wasn’t able to build a passing game.

Meanwhile, rookie Tyler Shough shined in his first NFL win with 282 yards and 2 touchdowns. Funny how he was more impressive in this one game than Cam Ward’s been all year as the No. 1 pick. I know, Ward will get the “bad coaching” pass for 2025, which is valid to a point. But with the way Shough and Dart have played this year without the greatest of situations around them, it makes you wonder about that draft class, especially with the Shedeur Sanders slide too.

Giants at Bears: Winning the Games Eberflus Didn’t

Despite the 6-3 record, I don’t think the Bears are a serious contender and still wouldn’t trust them to make the playoffs. But this year is about Caleb Williams getting better and Ben Johnson winning the games Matt Eberflus almost always lost.

On that front, this year has been a success after the Bears rallied from 10 down in the fourth quarter with a 24-20 win after Williams was excellent on two quick touchdown drives. Poor Russell Wilson took another failed comeback on his record after coming off the bench for a concussed Jaxson Dart, which was always the concern with his playing style. Dart is a special player when he’s healthy but who knows how long that will last.

At this point, I don’t see any value in bringing Brian Daboll back next year. He loses way too many games like this with the defense blowing the lead and the offense unable to recover.

Browns at Jets: Special Special Teams

If you had to script how Justin Fields can win a 27-20 game against a stingy defense, this would certainly do the trick:

  • Jets had two special teams touchdowns in the first quarter
  • Fields had 54 passing yards with 42 coming on a game-winning screen pass touchdown to Breece Hall, who showed off after a week the team traded its two best defenders and easily could have dealt him too
  • Dillon Gabriel was sacked 6 times

Leave it to the Browns to lose a game to a team like this in a game script like that.

Next week: Some of these games will be flat out duds, but with this much great stuff on the schedule, it has to be the best Sunday of the season.

  • Bucs at Bills
  • Chargers at Jags
  • Bengals at Steelers (Unc Bowl II)
  • Seahawks at Rams (NFC Game of the Year?)
  • Chiefs at Broncos (AFC West Game of the Year?)
  • Lions at Eagles (SNF)

2025 NFL Predictions

2025 NFL Predictions

I’m starting my 15th season covering the NFL by running late in trying to push this out before kickoff in Philadelphia. As I end up doing more offseason articles each year, the seven months of repeating certain things gets tiresome, and you just want to get the new season started.

I usually come up with an overall theme for these seasons, but I don’t really have one for 2025. Just sit back and enjoy the ride. That’s the theme. So much about the world has gone or is going to shit, that you have to find comfort in the little things that make you happy.

Even though I had a 2024 prediction that Josh Allen would win MVP and the Chiefs would lose the Super Bowl in their three-peat bid, it wasn’t always that fun to watch unfold. I think I let too many ridiculous people on Twitter get to me about these topics, including that horseshit about the refs helping the Chiefs win games. It was also dark times late in the season with my uncle and a close family friend dying two months apart. Stress eating got the best of me.

But as soon as that Super Bowl blowout ended, I felt this huge relief. I slept like a baby that week, I started shedding pounds again, and now I’ve spent the summer walking around the house having to hold my shorts up as nothing wants to fit anymore. I’m at my lowest weight since high school.

The three-peat? Like Zed, it’s dead. If the Eagles repeat, what do I care? We already turned the MVP into a charity case for Allen, so what’s it matter if they do it for Joe Burrow next? I’ll make the futures bet today to take advantage of that nonsense. What if the Ravens or Bills finally break through and make the Super Bowl? GOOD. I’m sick and tired of writing every offseason about the Five-Year Rule and when they’re going to get over the hump. I wish one of them would just do it already (hint hint), and you know which one I’d prefer at this point – shocking as it is.

Spending three hours on Sundays watching Aaron Rodgers quarterback my childhood team should be a hoot. The quarterback I perfectly labeled 14 years ago (just a few months into my writing career) a front-runner extraordinaire who would be lucky to win another Super Bowl. I’m so numb to the Steelers having a non-losing record and doing squat in the playoffs that nothing could phase me this year.

I’m just going to try to enjoy it, and part of that has already started by blocking some of the most annoying people I’ve come across on Twitter in 14 years. Time is precious, and arguing with these people is a waste of it. Shout out to #AlwaysWrongGuy for being a punching bag I still enjoy getting my hits into. But those Brdy cultists – they know who they are – can login to their burners because I’m in a blocking mood right now.

It took me a long time to come up with my Super Bowl pick this year. I actually dropped a futures bet on it around August 12 on BetRivers, and the odds have already gone from +4575 to +3000. Almost like a certain trade made that happen.

But last year, I ended a 3-year drought of getting all the Super Bowl teams wrong. I even finally got the right game outcome with the Chiefs losing, but it was Green Bay winning. Whoops. Won’t make that mistake again (hint hint).

Right Super Bowl team, Wrong Super Bowl outcome.

This week at 365Scores, I already dropped my full NFL 2025 award predictions, and just this morning, I published my full predictions and Super Bowl LX pick. Read those for more detail than I’m going to provide here.

But I still have a standard I hold myself to, and I wouldn’t be meeting it if I didn’t make this the only place I post my final thoughts and final record predictions for all 32 teams along with my narrative for the postseason.

But if you need more detail about your team or curious about other teams – I recommend the Chiefs, Ravens, Packers, Vikings, Bills, Eagles, and Commanders – then be sure to click the links and read those previews at 365Scores. They’re all 2,500-6,500 words each.

NFC EAST

AFC EAST

NFC SOUTH

AFC SOUTH

NFC NORTH

NFC WEST

AFC WEST

Note: Some of the over/under picks in these articles were subject to change as I only made my final record predictions Thursday morning after going through the schedule. My final, official picks are as presented below.

AFC WEST

1. Kansas City Chiefs (12-5)

I’ve shown how the 2024 Chiefs were a copy of 2020, right down to winning a record number of close games, the starters losing one time going into the Super Bowl, beating Buffalo in the AFC-CG, and playing musical chairs with their OL before getting dominated in the Super Bowl.

Does that mean 2021 Chiefs = 2025 Chiefs? A 3-4 start followed by a hot finish to get to 12-5 and another AFC-CG. I do think the schedule is ridiculously frontloaded with four major Super Bowl contenders in the first six games, the games they’ll have to play without Rashee Rice, who should take over as the leading receiver this year.

But it’s the Chiefs. You know they’re going to be in the mix late in the year, and the offense should perk up with Josh Simmons at left tackle. The defense may take a step back, and that could be the difference in January too. But it’s still up to a Baltimore or Buffalo to make the decisive play in the playoffs and eliminate this team.

Maybe even before the AFC-CG this year…They can’t go to every Super Bowl, right?

2. Denver Broncos (11-6)

I’m sold on Bo Nix having a legit shot to be a problem (positively) under Sean Payton as he’s giving him a talented, balanced roster the likes of which he almost never did for Drew Brees all those years. That’s a shame.

But Nix played well against the Chiefs and would have won in Arrowhead if not for a blocked 35-yard field goal. I still have the Chiefs winning the division, but an 11-6 finish for Denver is going to be good enough for a No. 5 seed most likely.

3. Los Angeles Chargers (9-8)

I think the Chargers can beat the Chiefs in Brazil and that might be the highlight of their season. I still see them losing pivotal games for tie-breakers like Week 10 against the Steelers (SNF) and Week 18 in Denver. I love Ladd McConkey but still not a fan of the other receivers around Justin Herbert, who needs to be more aggressive and assertive this year. No one cares about those 3 INTs if you throw 4 in a playoff game.

But I think the Rashawn Slater injury is a big one as it’s going to hurt the potential the running game had with Joe Alt sliding to LT.

4. Las Vegas Raiders (6-11)

They should be more competitive and fun to watch with Pete Carroll, Geno Smith, Chip Kelly, and Ashton Jeanty in town. But it’s a numbers game and the other three AFC West teams are just better. Carroll hasn’t led a top 10 D since 2016, and there were diminishing returns with him and Geno in Seattle.

NFC WEST

1. San Francisco 49ers (11-6)

The 49ers have this incredible streak where they’ve gone 22 straight seasons (since 2003) where they’ve either missed the playoffs with a non-losing record (15 times) or they got to the NFC-CG or better (7 times).

I think that streak can continue as all 4 teams are capable of winning this NFC West. But I’m still siding with the 49ers as they can’t be more injured than 2024 (try as they might), I believe in Brock Purdy, and the tiebreaker for me is they play a last-place schedule.

What does that mean in comparison to the Rams’ 1st-place schedule? It means the 49ers get to play the Browns, Giants, and Bears while the Rams have to play the Ravens, Eagles, and Lions.

That’ll do, pig.

2. Los Angeles Rams (10-7)

When I wrote the Rams preview early on I was really hyped about this team, thinking it can match the Eagles’ feat (2-1 in the Super Bowl over the last 8 years). You take Sean McVay and Stafford, add Davante Adams, and the front seven had 16 sacks in the playoffs and Jared Verse could ascend to the next tier in Year 2. A Super Bowl is realistic.

Then Stafford’s disc issue came up, he’s 37, and you get worried. Throw in that schedule difference I just talked about with the 49ers getting a huge boost, and I cautiously slide the Rams into second place with 10 wins.

3. Arizona Cardinals (8-9)

I wanted to find another win for this team but ended up giving them the same record as last year. Honestly, the schedule works out to where it should be a good start before the inevitable Kyler Murray nosedive late in the year. Is there a new Call of Duty coming out? That’d just cement missing the playoffs for me.

I do like the prospects of Marvin Harrison Jr. reminding us why he was WR1 in a loaded WR draft though.

4. Seattle Seahawks (7-10)

My gut says Sam Darnold plays better than he did in 2018-23 but noticeably worse than last year with the Vikings. Pretty fair. He has a worse situation all around and the Seahawks have downgraded at wide receiver.

AFC EAST

1. Buffalo Bills (13-4)

The Bills really have to take advantage of a schedule that worked out to where they get to face the Ravens, Chiefs, Eagles, Bengals, and Buccaneers in Buffalo where they were 10-0 last year. Great path to a No. 1 seed, which I think they get.

But are they really that much better this year? They added some ex-Chargers (Josh Palmer, Joey Bosa), and beyond trying to get better play out of Keon Coleman and Dalton Kincaid, they’re hoping they can make Tre’Davious White a thing again in 2025. That’s not an impressive haul for the eternal bridesmaid of the AFC.

And don’t forget the turnover regression I’ve covered over and over. In fact, don’t be surprised if the Bills do something Sunday night against Baltimore than they never did in 2024 – lose a fumble by someone other than Josh Allen.

2. New England Patriots (8-9)

I think this team surprised people by being favored in roughly 11 games when the earliest lines came out. The schedule is favorable, Stefon Diggs should help, but I’m going to be cautious as I need to see Drake Maye succeed in various ways. Remember, he never finished a start he won where the Patriots allowed more than 3 points last year.

3. New York Jets (5-12)

My issue with Robert Saleh when the Jets hired him was that he basically had one good year as a defensive coordinator in SF. Aaron Glenn is the same way now from Detroit. But the bigger issue is pairing him with Justin Fields, a quarterback who is 0-22 when his opponent scores more than 20 points and 2-18 at 4QC opportunities.

He is not a franchise quarterback.

4. Miami Dolphins (4-13)

They probably won’t be this bad, but they were the sacrifice I was constantly willing to make to make sure the other 31 teams had the records they did. Hell, the sportsbooks have Mike McDaniel with better than even odds to be the first coach fired just like Miami did to Tony Sparano and Joe Philbin early in their fourth seasons.

On the bright side, just another day closer to death, Mike.

NFC EAST

1. Philadelphia Eagles (13-4)

They absolutely have a shot to repeat by retaining their super talented offensive core and having a ton of young defenders that can be solid to great. However, I still think Saquon Barkley’s long runs dry up this year and the passing game has to do more. The defense will miss the veterans and depth they lost too. But still a team that can get it done and end that absurd streak of no repeat winner in the NFC East since 2004.

Circle the Week 10 game in Green Bay. Potential No. 1 seed battle on MNF.

2. Washington Commanders (10-7)

I think Jayden Daniels is the next big thing at QB, but I was cautious to not go overboard after it didn’t work with C.J. Stroud and Houston last year. But you can see a path to how Daniels could ascend to MVP and win the NFC East and get to the Super Bowl in Year 2 a la 1984 Dan Marino, 2005 Ben Roethlisberger, and 2013 Russell Wilson.

Still, I can’t help but acknowledge the schedule will be much tougher, Kliff’s offense won’t surprise teams this year the way it did last year, and they didn’t do enough defensively in my book.

But Daniels is a huge MVP contender. He should have finished much higher in 2024 for it too if people actually cared about the value of making the god damn Washington NFL franchise relevant again.

I thought that was impossible in the salary cap era.

3. Dallas Cowboys (7-10)

I guess in the end I soured on my 8-9 win prediction and could only repeat 7-10 for Dallas with a healthy Dak and the best WR2 (George Pickens) he’s had since 2021. But Brian Schottenheimer Jr. is unproven in this spot, and the Micah Parsons trade was not good at all for this team’s 2025 prospects.

Are you having a good time now, Jerry? You did it, you did it, baby, you did it!

4. New York Giants (6-11)

They were the only team I talked about the preseason for since they were so prolific with 345 net passing yards per game and over 36 points. Sure, that’s likely going to lead to the ugliest first quarter of offense of any team this Sunday, but one could dream Brian Daboll has figured things out with his job on the line, right?

But a Russ redemption season would be cool, and Jaxson Dart had an impressive preseason. Might see him soon enough as that schedule is brutal.

AFC SOUTH

1. Jacksonville Jaguars (10-7)

I picked Liam Coen for Coach of the Year with the expectation he’ll get a career year out of Trevor Lawrence with his best weapons yet, and they’ll manage Travis Hunter well to take back this division.

Sure, it could be a disaster too from the guy who started his presser with “Duuuuvallll” like some kind of Willy Wonka Football Factory nerd. But trust the guy knows what he’s doing offensively.  

2. Houston Texans (9-8)

They didn’t make the leap last year as I expected, and I think the roster is all over the place offensively aside from Stroud to Nico Collins. I think they take a step back.

3. Tennessee Titans (5-12)

The most optimistic thought is Cam Ward, a very disrespected No. 1 pick, does his best C.J. Stroud (2023) and Jayden Daniels (2024) and takes this team to the playoffs. But I think there’s still a lot of work to be done here as Brian Callahan wasn’t showing much last year.

4. Indianapolis Colts (5-12)

Fvcking hell. How did this team get here? I temporarily can’t even suggest Arch Manning is the answer after Week 1. But the Colts can’t keep starting a different washed-up quarterback every year since Andrew Luck retired.

The sad part is the roster isn’t half bad outside of the most important position.

NFC SOUTH

1. Atlanta Falcons (10-7)

This didn’t work last year, but here we go again. I think Michael Penix Jr. opens up the offense, Bijan Robinson wins OPOY, and we look at them with Drake London as the new triplets. Raheem Morris got several pass rushers in the draft and free agency, so he should be better on that side of the ball.

It’s just another division where I’m looking for a change after Tampa Bay’s grip hasn’t been that strong. They had to survive an Atlanta sweep last year. But if Penix bombs in Week 1 against the Bucs, I’ll already be regretting this pick.

2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-8)

They’re obviously a talented team, but they lost Liam Coen, Baker still had a lot of turnovers with him last year, and they have some injuries this year like Chris Godwin. Mike Evans isn’t getting any younger either. They’re the weakest team in the 32-team era to win 4 straight division titles, so I think the streak ends here.

3. Carolina Panthers (7-10)

I’m still not sold on Bryce Young (or Dave Canales), hence a cautious 7-10 since they did play the Chiefs and Eagles (oh, Leggette would catch that shit if it was baked in raccoon flavoring) well last year.

4. New Orleans Saints (3-14)

Pour one out for Kellen Moore, walking into the worst quarterback battle in the NFC. It says everything that the biggest salary cap hit on this team is Tayson Hill this year.

AFC NORTH

1. Baltimore Ravens (12-5)

I probably could have found a way to give them another win instead of going 12-5 again. But that would mess with my Week 1 prediction and how I wanted Buffalo to get the No. 1 seed, and how I didn’t want any team with 14 wins in the AFC. So, 12-5 it is.

But they should be stronger defensively after that slow start, they should have Zay Flowers for the playoffs this time around, and that offense is obviously hard to stop with Lamar and Henry. Just need to find a way to protect the ball in January and take it away on defense for a change.

Just hope the rookie kicker replacing the asshole who’s disgraced his GOAT legacy doesn’t become the guy who throws the season for a loop. Because it’s always something in Baltimore in the playoffs.

2. Cincinnati Bengals (10-7)

I picked Joe Burrow to win MVP. Not because I think he’ll improve on last year’s stats and production. But because I think the Bengals will manage the turnover battle better, he’ll have a couple of clutch wins for a change, and even a 10-7 record/wild card is enough for those guys like Dan Orlovsky, Emmanuel Acho, and Chris Simms to give him the MVP.

They were soft launching it last year when he finished fourth in voting despite missing the playoffs. But I don’t think the defense is improved enough to go on a deep run to another Super Bowl or AFC-CG.

3. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7)

It would be something if the arrival of Aaron Rodgers led to Mike Tomlin’s first losing season. I was all for the 8-9 finish for months. But then the Steelers kept adding all these veterans like Darius Slay, Jalen Ramsey, Jonnu Smith, and the draft seemed solid with Derrick Harmon.

This really could be the best defense Rodgers has played with since 2010. But then I’m reminded that this sounds like what I said about him with the Jets in 2023 and 2024 before he had another one of his worst seasons just like in 2022 when he missed the playoffs in Green Bay.

I’m not optimistic about this team doing a thing in January, but I find myself still picking 10 wins for them. It’s Tomlin’s thing at this point.

4. Cleveland Browns (4-13)

I think Kevin Stefanski gets fired after he wants to stick with Joe Flacco and the fans and ownership force him to play Shedeur Sanders after Dillon Gabriel magically gets injured during the season. Just a messy situation and you already see why most teams wanted nothing to do with the headache over a third-string quarterback.

NFC NORTH

1. Green Bay Packers (13-4)

Wow, the Green Bay Packers really drafted a first-round WR (Matthew Golden) and traded big capital for an elite pass rusher (Micah Parsons). Where was that in the 2010s when Aaron Rodgers was trying to win another Super Bowl?

But you saw the stat. Favre and Rodgers won their Super Bowl in their age-27 season. Love is 27 this year. He played like an MVP in the second half of 2023 and injuries kept throwing him off a little in 2024. I think he has his most complete season in 2025 and this team’s stability on top of adding two elite talents puts them over the top for one of the most consistent winning coaches we have today.

2. Detroit Lions (10-7)

It’s not just that they lost both coordinators, but they also lost some interior linemen, and 15-win teams usually regress by 4-5 wins anyway. Detroit is still good and Dan Campbell will still be aggressive. But I see Goff taking a step back after a career year and the defense is still too dependent on Aidan Hutchinson.

3. Chicago Bears (8-9)

I love what Ben Johnson was selling this offseason, but I think the stacked division prevents him from winning Coach of the Year as you need to make the playoffs for that. But he’d be a slam dunk in the South divisions.

4. Minnesota Vikings (7-10)

Let’s make one thing very clear. I don’t “hate” J.J. McCarthy. I have no reason to (yet). I just hate that I don’t have information on him going into Year 2, and with the way Kevin O’Connell has gone from 13 wins (with a negative scoring differential) to 7-10 back up to 14-3 with Sam Darnold, he’s too volatile for my liking.

Throw in McCarthy being a wild card and I’m just going to keep it at 7-10/no playoffs for what is a playoff-ready roster. If I’m wrong, then so be it. I’ll judge McCarthy on merit. But for now, until he proves himself, I just trust the teams with LaFleur/Love, McVay/Stafford, and Jayden Daniels more.

And someone has to win the South.

PLAYOFFS

Most teams were coming out exactly the way I hoped for when getting to their win count. Took some adjustments as always, and the Vikings were the team I had to find wins for the most as apparently I got too sour on them. I really did stick to some of my 2024 gut picks that didn’t pan out, so maybe I was just a year early. Doubling down for sure on some of these.

In the end, I had four new playoff teams, which still feels low. Three of them are division winners.

AFC

  • 1. Buffalo (13-4)
  • 2. Kansas City (12-5)
  • 3. Baltimore (12-5)
  • 4. Jacksonville (10-7)
  • 5. Denver (11-6)
  • 6. Cincinnati (10-7)
  • 7. Pittsburgh (10-7)

Believe it or not, we finally get that Aaron Rodgers vs. Patrick Mahomes game, and it ends up being the final game of Rodgers’ career as he retires after the loss. The Ravens finish 2-1 against the Bengals and send them packing. The Broncos-Jaguars meet in the Bill O’Brien Saturday Invitational, and the winner loses in Buffalo.

That leaves the 3 teams you expect. I don’t love Baltimore in that No. 3 position, but if you’re going to get over the hump like the 2012 team did, why not go big? That team beat Manning and Brady on the road to get to the Super Bowl. The Baltimore defense finally gives Lamar a big turnover in January in Kansas City, leading to a game-winning field goal by the rookie kicker. The Ravens then complete the season sweep of Buffalo, beating them in the first and last game of the season.

NFC

  • 1. Green Bay (13-4)
  • 2. Philadelphia (13-4)
  • 3. San Francisco (11-6)
  • 4. Atlanta (10-7)
  • 5. Washington (10-7)
  • 6. LA Rams (10-7)
  • 7. Detroit (10-7)

The Lions put up a fight in Philly but fall short. Jayden Daniels educates the Falcons about the playoffs in Atlanta. 49ers-Rams could go either way, but I think Shanahan gets the win over McVay this time.

While Daniels eyes another road upset of a No. 1 seed, Parsons earns his extension with a huge play that leads to a Green Bay win. The 49ers have to keep their streak alive (no playoffs or NFC-CG), so they end Philly’s repeat bid after Brock Purdy gets his revenge for the elbow injury three years ago. They’re one game away from playing the Super Bowl at Levi’s.

That sets up another Packers vs. 49ers clash in the playoffs, and it’s one of the biggest yet. Shanahan blows a 10-point lead in the fourth quarter (redundant) as Jordan Love establishes himself as the comeback QB that neither Favre nor Rodgers ever was.

SUPER BOWL LX

It’s Ravens vs. Packers in February. Something fresh with neither team getting there since 2010 and 2012 respectively. All the hype is about Lamar owning the NFC in his career and how it’s his time now.

But in some weird way, Jerry Jones gets the last laugh as the Ravens kill Green Bay with Derrick Henry on the ground on a night where Lamar is solid but doesn’t throw more than 20 passes. The narrative flips to how they ended up missing Kenny Clark’s run defense and Parsons was a no-show for the big one.

Down 27-20 late, Jordan Love is intercepted by Jaire Alexander, the former Packer turned Raven. Baltimore ends the 75-year run the Five-Year Rule had as Jackson and Harbaugh finally make it happen in Year 8 together.

Ravens 27, Packers 20 (Super Bowl MVP: Derrick Henry)

I was going to say I could definitely live with this season outcome, then I realized this will make TruthBearer, the Lamar superfan on Twitter, be the next person I have to block.

At least I know I provided one happy ending today.

2024 NFL Stat Oddity: Conference Championship Games

I said Sunday was going to be a history-making day in the NFL and it absolutely was. We’re already seeing history in the Super Bowl as Chiefs vs. Eagles will be the first ever AFC vs. NFC matchup to happen in four consecutive seasons (2021-24) thanks to two Super Bowl matchups.

But how about the other history we were tracking?

  • The Chiefs are the first team to reach the Super Bowl after repeating, replacing the 1990 49ers as the closest to ever complete a Super Bowl three-peat.
  • After an early fumble, the Chiefs’ record streak of games without a turnover was snapped at eight.
  • The Chiefs have won 17 straight one-score games now (NFL record).
  • Even though the Bills started the game with two near interceptions and fumbled the ball four times, they finished with no giveaways, meaning they had just 8 turnovers in a 20-game season (NFL record for any season and any 20-game span).
  • The Bills now hold the NFL record for 22 straight games without losing the turnover battle. They were previously tied with the 1950s Rams at 21 games.
  • The Five-Year Rule lives on as Sean McDermott and Josh Allen will not be winning a Super Bowl in Year 7 together, and now Allen will have to try matching Peyton Manning as the only Super Bowl-winning quarterback who needed more than five postseasons to reach a Super Bowl.
  • Jayden Daniels did not become the first rookie quarterback to reach the Super Bowl, but the 2024 Commanders are the only team to ever score at least 18 points in 20 consecutive games in one season.

I would have loved a Daniels vs. Mahomes Super Bowl, but all things considered, Chiefs vs. Eagles is the best possible matchup this season could have produced in Super Bowl LIX. You get the three-peat against the team the title reign started against two years ago in Super Bowl LVII. These have been the best teams in their respective conference over the last three years, and there’s the added twist of Saquon Barkley, who will have his 28th birthday on Super Bowl Sunday.

I’m pleased with the outcome, but I sure as hell wanted a better game early in Philly. At least we got a classic in Kansas City again.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Bills at Chiefs: Four Falls of Buffalo Gets a Sequel

It has to be frustrating to have a great team and still come up short because there’s always someone that is a little better. This happened to the Buffalo Bills when they lost four straight Super Bowls in 1990-93 with the NFC teams easily getting the best of them in the last three games before the salary cap was implemented in 1994.

They did a documentary on those losses called Four Falls of Buffalo for 30 for 30. But we might actually need a sequel as Buffalo’s 0-4 mark in the playoffs against the Kansas City Chiefs is arguably more infuriating since the games were usually closer than those Super Bowl losses. Sure, they haven’t been Super Bowls, but Buffalo damn well may have gone the distance in 2020, 2021, 2023, and 2024 had it not been for Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs.

How do you top a team that’s won 17 straight one-score games? How do you overcome a quarterback who is 17-3 in the playoffs and always seems to shred your defense no matter how well you do in the regular season? Remember, the Bills have won four years in a row in the regular season against the Chiefs, including multiple games in Arrowhead.

Yet, here we are again with the Bills coming up short in a 32-29 classic that again went down to the wire. I think I’ll jump around some different storylines instead of doing a sequential recap.

Chiefs Save Their Best for the Playoffs Again

The Chiefs hadn’t scored 21 points in any half all season, and yet they did it in this game. The Chiefs hadn’t scored more than 30 points in any of their last 28 games. They hadn’t topped 31 points in their last 36 games, and yet they scored 32 in this game on just nine drives, and they ran out the clock on that final possession.

It just seems like no matter what the Chiefs do against Buffalo in the regular season, they’re able to turn it on in the playoffs against Sean McDermott’s defense.

The versatility of this team is key. In Week 11 in Buffalo, Mahomes never ran the ball once. In this game, his mobility was apparent from the opening drive, and the Chiefs had great success with RPOs – save for one fumbled exchange between Mahomes and Pacheco that broke the team’s record streak without a giveaway – as Mahomes read the field well the whole game with quick decisions.

But his legs were key again with over 40 rushing yards, two touchdowns scored, and he made it look effortless. Kansas City was all in on Travis Kelce against Houston, but he only had 2 catches for 19 yards in this game, shades of what the Bills did to him in Week 11. Instead, Mahomes found JuJu for 60  yards on the offense’s two longest plays that were both quick decisions over the middle. Even Samaje Perine had the game’s fifth-longest gain (17 yards) to put the game away on third-and-long in the 4-minute offense.

The Chiefs just do whatever is necessary to win the style of game they find themselves in. The people who said this team couldn’t win a shootout with Buffalo this year were wrong again. The Chiefs tend to dictate how these games go. Not Buffalo.

Can’t Ever Have Enough Good Corners

Injuries will probably come up as an excuse again for why McDermott’s defense failed and made the Chiefs look greater than usual. They were without safety Taylor Rapp, but I don’t remember when he turned into Ed Reed incarnate.

Then there’s the case of corner Christian Benford. He was carted off with a concussion in last week’s game. You know what the NFL is like in the post-2022 Tua Tagovailoa concussion protocol era. If you see a player that bad off after a concussion on a Sunday, he shouldn’t be playing the next Sunday.

But the Bills somehow got him on the field for this game, and they may have jeopardized his chances to get back on one any time soon. He took a hit to the head (friendly fire) early in the game and had to be carted off again, even strapped down with the seatbelt in the cart. It was a scary sight and something that should get a third-party investigation into the handling of clearing him.

With Benford out early, the Bills were stuck playing Kaiir Elam for more snaps, and the Chiefs attacked him frequently as teams often do when this happens to a secondary.

But I’m not going to feel bad for Buffalo here, because it’s a lesson that you can never have enough good corners. Elam is not a street free agent they signed a week ago for depth either. They used a 2022 first-round pick on this guy just two picks after the Chiefs drafted Trent McDuffie. Advantage Chiefs. Elam hasn’t been good and he didn’t help this game when they needed him to come up big.

Xavier Worthy: My Bad

Speaking of Kansas City draft wins over Buffalo, I have to eat some crow on Xavier Worthy. While I still believe Ladd McConkey would have been more unstoppable in this offense, Worthy has developed into a solid player who is more than just a gimmicky speed and gadget player. He attacks the ball down the field now, and he showed his skills on a 26-yard grab in the second quarter to prevent an interception and he also scored a touchdown on a very fine night where the veterans (Kelce, Hopkins, Hollywood) didn’t do much.

Of course, people called the 26-yard catch a controversial call for the Chiefs. First, there was a holding penalty on the Bills, so it would have been a first down anyway. Second, I think they got the call right with the rule change years ago that the ball is allowed to touch the ground as long as you maintain control. I don’t see where Worthy ever lost control of it as he gained possession from the DB, and in that situation, the offense gets the catch. Legit call.

But let’s say they called it incomplete. Then the Chiefs still have a first down at the Buffalo 24 with under 3:00 left in the half. Who’s to say they still don’t score a touchdown on that drive with the way they were going up and down the field all night? They may have even scored it with less than 1:55 left like they did, and that would leave less time for the touchdown that the Bills got to make it 21-16 going into halftime.

That sequence was also amusing as the Bills took the extra point off the board to go for a 2-point conversion from the 1-yard line. I don’t mind the decision to go after the penalty. But the Chiefs plugged the gap on the left where they knew Allen was going to run, and they stopped the play.

Erratic Allen Not So Automatic on the Sneak

I don’t think the game does much of anything to change the legacy for Josh Allen. He came in winless against the Chiefs in the playoffs with some close calls, and he went out winless with another close call in a game he briefly had a fourth-quarter lead in.

There were enough good plays to say he battled and gave them a chance, and he didn’t make a huge mistake with the game on the line. But it was far from his best game against the Chiefs, and he started it poorly with two throws that could have been intercepted on the opening drive alone.

Allen also fumbled 3 times on the night, but somehow the Bills recovered all 5 fumbles in this game (4 of their own, one unforced error by the Chiefs on the RPO). They’ll finish the season +17 in fumbles, an absurd number that has to regress next year.

But I did get the sense early that Allen was nervous in the biggest game of his career. There was a three-and-out in the second quarter before the big Worthy catch where Allen threw a poor 2nd-and-10 pass to Curis Samuel, which was dropped as he had to reach down to get it. He should have caught it, but if Allen threw it in stride, that’s a huge gain. Big miss there.

But Allen’s bread and butter on the short-yardage run was gone in this game. In fact, he was stuffed 3 times on crucial sneak plays, the most in any game since 2016.

Remember, the Ravens stuffed him last week on a big third down when he considered pitching the ball back on the play. Buffalo fans assured me Allen was automatic in these spots, but this postseason paints a different story. Incredible job by the Chiefs on defense on those plays.

The big one came on 4th-and-1 at the Kansas City 41 with the Bills up 22-21 with 13:01 left to play. Allen tried to go left on the Tush Push, but the Chiefs stood him up and it was ruled short on the field. The ruling on the field stood after video review with a turnover on downs.

I think what happened here is the Chiefs were saved by Chris Jones obstructing the view of the ball by standing right down the camera line from the key angle. You might be able to reasonably conclude that Allen probably had the ball to the 40, but there’s no visual evidence that he had the ball break that line. You see Allen but not the ball on the most shared shot of this.

Tough break for the Bills, but they were terrible on those short-yardage runs all night. I’m also not sure if James Cook was injured or what, but he deserved more than 13 carries after looking good in the second half.

The Chiefs Are Closers

After taking over on the 4th-and-1 stop, the Chiefs were surgical on another touchdown drive to regain a 29-22 lead after converting their first 2-point conversion of the season if I heard correctly.

But the Chiefs had some defensive lapses in this one despite playing well at times. They let Mack Hollins beat them deep a few times, and that led to another touchdown on a 4th-down play where Samuel was left wide open in the end zone to tie the game at 29.

The Chiefs were marching right into a first-and-goal, and just when you thought we’d see a flurry of a finish like the 13 Second Game, the Bills sacked Mahomes immediately on a first-and-goal, causing a failure on that revamped left side of the line.

Was that finally going to catch up to the Chiefs? Then with Harrison Butker coming out for a 35-yard field goal with 3:37 left, I jokingly predicted the other day he’d miss a 35-yard field goal. That was in my head for sure at the time as I could see him missing and the Bills making on the other end with 0:00 left to win 32-29.

But Butker was perfect on the kick, right down the middle. While this would have been a great time for the Chiefs to force the first non-QB fumble of the season for Buffalo (or any turnover), they instead cranked up the heat on 4th-and-5. Spagnuolo brought a blitz and Allen did his best to throw up a pass for Dalton Kincaid. He absolutely had a shot at a diving catch that could have lived in playoff lore, but instead he couldn’t make this play:

There was still 1:54 left, and Pacheco ran out of bounds to stop the clock on a nice 2nd-down pass from the Chiefs for a first down. But it got to 3rd-and-9 at the Buffalo 35, which is no man’s land in this situation with 1:35 left. Do you risk an incompletion to stop the clock? Risk a sack to lose the FG opportunity? Do you even want to kick the FG and go up 6 with that much time left?

Tough call, but the Chiefs made the right call, and Mahomes found Samaje Perine for a 17-yard gain out in the flat to send the Chiefs right back to the Super Bowl for an unprecedented three-peat opportunity.

That whole drive I was waiting for a running back to fumble to recreate the 1990 Roger Craig fumble moment in San Francisco that led to New York’s upset win. With the way Buffalo’s fumble luck was in 2024, you never know. But the Chiefs didn’t stumble, and they again put a team away in a one-score game for the 17th time in a row.

Unbelievable stuff from a historic team that is one win away from the ultimate history. Season on the line, there’s no quarterback you want more than Mahomes.

Final Thoughts

We’ve reached the end of our show where I guess I’m supposed to jump into my Bill Maher-style monologue (less smarmy about it) where I pat myself on the back for being right about Buffalo still not having what it takes to get over the Kansas City hump in the AFC.

And you’re probably wondering how I could say that when I picked the Bills to win 27-24 the night before. Yeah, but if you look closely, I also spelled out “THREEPEAT” with the first letter of each paragraph.

I did a reverse jinx on Buffalo, something I’ve been doing for 18 years (ever since it worked for the 2006 AFC Championship Game) because I grew tired of picking the team I wanted to win and seeing them lose the game. So, I get to either enjoy a correct prediction or enjoy the actual outcome to games like this.

I also said this was a coin-flip game, and it basically was – tied  at 29 with 6:15 left. As usual, the Chiefs closed, and the Bills didn’t make the plays to win the game or force overtime.

Buffalo had a very good year, but I trust my eyes, and I trust my numbers. Earlier this week, I introduced some numbers on my Fraud Alert metric, which I’ll be sharing more of before the Super Bowl. It had the Bills as by far the No. 1 misleading team this year based on turnover margin, field position, and strength of schedule. The Chiefs were only 17th, producing one of the biggest mismatches in my Fraud Alert Rating (FAR) system since 2002.

Well, I can tell you now that the teams with the higher FAR in the 11 biggest mismatches since 2002 are now 2-9 in the playoff meetings. Even better, I can tell you that in the 21 playoff games since 2002 with a spread of 0-to-2 points, the team with the higher FAR is now 6-15 (.286). That’s right. The team with the higher fraud alert won just 28.6% of the playoff games with the tiniest spreads, and you better believe this applies to Super Bowl LIX too.

When Bills fans tried to pump up Josh Allen by telling me that Mack Hollins is his WR1 (he wasn’t but he was better than Amari Cooper and Keon Coleman on Sunday)), I laughed it off, thinking maybe that’s a bad thing if you’re relying on Mack Hollins to be a big producer in your offense. Maybe it’s a bad thing that Dalton Kincaid’s numbers regressed so badly in his second year, or that Cooper hasn’t really done much since the trade.

Maybe “beating both No. 1 seeds” isn’t all it’s cracked up to be when you’re only 2-3 against playoff teams in the regular season.

Maybe “scoring 30 in regulation” as they liked to bring up as a shot at the Chiefs doesn’t mean much if you can’t keep most good teams under 30 points. Maybe it doesn’t mean much if you’re scoring 30+ against the likes of the Titans, Jaguars, Jets, Colts, and Dolphins.

Maybe it’s not a good thing if your team doesn’t have a single fourth-quarter comeback win this season, nor is it a bad thing that the Chiefs now have six of them as Mahomes tied the single-season record with his eighth game-winning drive Sunday. Still think they’re the 2022 Vikings?

Your quarterback didn’t win MVP, your team didn’t get the top seed, and you didn’t beat the Chiefs again in the playoffs. Close but no cigar. Only Brady and Burrow have smoked that one for getting past the Chiefs in the playoffs.

I’ve said it would be statistically improbable for the likes of Allen and Lamar to never at least reach a Super Bowl. I stand by that. But at the same time, I don’t think it’s a stretch to say Allen and McDermott blew their best shot in 2021 because of 13 Seconds, and that should have been their Super Bowl year.

Instead, it’s set the AFC on this butterfly effect where we pretend the Bengals are the team to beat only to see them be irrelevant unless Lamar gets hurt, the Ravens always choke in the playoffs, and the Chiefs traded Tyreek Hill, built up the defense, and keep winning one-score playoff games because Mahomes gets big moments out of JuJu, MVS, and some rookies.

Allen had his moment in 13 Seconds by finding Gabe Davis again, but the Bills still found a way to lose, and they frankly haven’t topped that moment in the playoffs ever since.

But that’s why Mahomes and the Chiefs are in their own tier, and the Bills are just the best-looking, ringless bridesmaid in the AFC.

Commanders at Eagles: Double Nickel Boys Run Wild on Washington

I’ll start by saying it’s almost impossible to beat these Eagles if the good version of Jalen Hurts shows up. I saw the knee bend against the Rams last week, and I thought that’d actually be problematic this week. Silly me. Hurts looked mobile and was as good as he’s been in any game this season.

Then when you throw in his receivers getting early production, Saquon Barkley hitting another 60-yard homerun on the first snap, and the Commanders fumbling it three times again just like they did in Week 16 to screw over their rookie quarterback, you end up with a 55-23 smackdown, the most points ever scored in a Conference Championship Game by one team.

I thought Jayden Daniels could be the one rookie who would get to a Super Bowl by producing a different outcome. In a way, he did stand out as he played better than any other rookie has in a conference championship game where rookies are now 0-6 since 1970. I hope he has more deep playoff runs in his future, because it would be insane if the closest he ever came was this year in a game where his defense allowed 7 rushing touchdowns and his skill guys put the ball on the ground three times early.

Daniels didn’t turn it over until he was down 25 points with 5:00 left. But the other Washington turnovers were very costly. Dyami Brown coughed up a fumble trying to get centimeters more YAC, leading to a short field and 14-3 lead for the Eagles. The Commanders could have scored before halftime to make it 20-20 or at least 20-15, but a fumbled kickoff led to another touchdown and 27-15 deficit at the half.

The real killer was the final minute of the third quarter. Washington was down 34-23 and driving at midfield with a first down. Austin Ekeler became the third skill player to put the ball on the ground for Washington as the Eagles are really good at forcing those fumbles. That led to the absurd sequence to start the fourth quarter of six straight attempts to do the Tush Push from the 1-yard line finally resulted in a touchdown run for Hurts, who scored three times just like Barkley on the day.

But it was the announcement that the refs could award a touchdown to Philadelphia if the Commanders kept jumping over the line before the snap in their effort to go all Troy Polamalu and stop the Tush Push.

I mean, that’s probably not a bad rule to have in case of emergency, but the whole thing looked ridiculous and I have really come to despite the Tush Push. Just get rid of it already and go back to normal quarterback sneaks. Washington should have called the refs’ bluff too —  go figure, it was Ed Hochuli’s son – and made them award the Eagles a touchdown. I’d love to see that in the stat sheet and how that dynamic works.

But yeah, it was a rough outing for the Commanders in a 55-23 loss. I think the only way they win the game is if they were +4 in turnovers (or just +3 in fumbles lost). Even without the turnovers, they still never showed a real answer to stopping Philadelphia’s offense. Even Will Shipley came in for Saquon and ripped off a 57-yard run before scoring a touchdown.

The Eagles had 11 drives, scored 8 touchdowns, missed one early field goal, and punted twice in the third quarter. Yeah, it wasn’t just about the turnovers even if that definitely made things worse for Washington’s chances.

So, that one was a dud but still an incredible turnaround season for the Commanders. I’m sure Daniels will be a trendy MVP pick for 2025, and I may even drink some of the Kool-Aid if they make some free-agent splash signings to give him stronger weapons and build up that defense.

But the Eagles are still the class of the NFC East, and they really have been the best NFC team over the last three years despite having a caricature of a head coach. We’ll see if they can solve the Chiefs in two weeks.

Next two weeks: Two weeks of hyping up the final game of the season. I’ll have plenty of Super Bowl articles next week. This week, I’m continuing with Part 5 of my LOAT series, looking at the playoff luck for Tom Brady and Patrick Mahomes. I’m also going to do a bigger presentation on my Fraud Alert Rating metric. The Chiefs just have to win one more game for that to look as solid as possible.

NFL 2024 Conference Championship Predictions: Historic Day Edition

We’re here. About 12 hours from the point I’m writing this, they’ll kick off the NFC Championship Game, and that will begin what could be one of the most important days in NFL history depending on how these games go.

Just think of all the history and streaks on the line today:

  • The Chiefs can become the first team to reach the Super Bowl after repeating, putting them one win away from the three-peat.
  • A 10th-straight playoff win would also tie the Patriots for the all-time record.
  • The Chiefs have gone 8 straight games without a giveaway (NFL record).
  • The Chiefs have won 16 straight one-score games (NFL record).
  • The Bills have 8 giveaways in 19 games (NFL record for any season or any 19-game span).
  • The Bills have not lost the turnover battle in 21 straight games (longest streak in Super Bowl era).
  • The Bills are the only team since at least 1992 to have 0 lost fumbles by non-quarterbacks.
  • The Bills could break the Five-Year Rule if they win the Super Bowl in Year 7 of Sean McDermott/Josh Allen as no team has ever won its first Super Bowl starting the same quarterback for the same coach for more than five years.
  • The Commanders can become the first team in NFL history to reach the Super Bowl with a rookie quarterback (Jayden Daniels).
  • The Commanders can become the first team in NFL history to score at least 18 points in 20 consecutive games in a season.
  • The Eagles, well, they’re playing too. I guess Saquon Barkley can still set the single-season rushing record (playoffs included).

That’s a lot of stuff. I absolutely have a preferred rooting interest in seeing Commanders-Chiefs in two weeks. Unfortunately, that feels like the least likely outcome. I also have a very strong objection to seeing Bills-Eagles in two weeks. Unfortunately, that feels like the most likely outcome, or at least second right now. But crazier things have happened, and you can’t argue with these facts that add a lot of drama to the day:

  • The Commanders are the only team to beat the Eagles since October, and the only team to score more than 23 points against them in that time.
  • The Bills are the only team to beat the Chiefs’ starters this season, and the only team to score 30 points on that starting defense in the last two seasons.

Home teams usually win this round, but these teams have shown vulnerabilities despite their winning ways, and they are facing the teams arguably best equipped to beat them. That’s what makes it so interesting.

And while people are bitching left and right about officiating, let’s not lose the plot on turnovers this week. None of these final four teams have a giveaway in the playoffs. That’s never happened before since they’ve done this round in 1970. The teams who lose are likely going to suffer some devastating turnovers today that will go down in playoff infamy.

This Week’s Articles

NFL Conference Championship Predictions

Commanders at Eagles (-6.5)

I said in my preview and picks I was taking the Commanders, but can I get a redo? I’m just getting a bad vibe with the Commanders having some big losses in the trenches (Cosmi and DaRon Payne) on both sides of the ball. They were already at a disadvantage against the Eagles, who have the better defense, better run game/OL, and are home.

It’s a lot to overcome, but maybe if Jalen Hurts’ mobility is limited, that will be a great equalizer for this game. They still have Barkley, and I expect him to carve up the Commanders again. But they beat him running for 150 yards last time. The Rams were 13 yards away from beating this team with Barkley going for 200 again. Hell, the Browns (with Predator), Jaguars (with Trevor Lawrence playing terrible), and the Panthers (until the raccoon eater dropped the TD) all nearly won in Philly this year.

A team on a 7-game winning streak can beat this Philadelphia team. I know we should fade rookies in this spot, but what if Daniels is just that 1 of 1 rookie who makes history by getting to the Super Bowl? He’s already carrying the team like a veteran and doing things this postseason no one else has done (forget experience level):

https://twitter.com/ScottKacsmar/status/1882934544984334827

It’s asking a lot of Daniels, but I think he can outplay Hurts, withstand the impact of Barkley, and the Commanders just need a turnover or two to pull off the upset and go to the Super Bowl. We’re overdue for a No. 6 seed going on a miracle run.

Final: Commanders 24, Eagles 20

Bills at Chiefs (-1.5)

The theme for this game for me is turnovers. In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised if the team that has a turnover meltdown loses this game by 10+ points. Which team is more likely to do that? Well, the Bills have fewer turnovers than the Chiefs and are much better at creating takeaways on defense, so that’s an easy call.

However, how crazy would it be if the game didn’t feature a single turnover? Not that crazy. The 42-36 “13 Seconds” game between these teams didn’t have a turnover. The 2024 Chiefs are also the first team in NFL history to play 5 games in a season where neither team turned it over. The only giveaway by either team in the last 8 games was Josh Allen’s deep ball intercepted by the Patriots. That’s it.

Referees are unfortunately the other big talking point. After the absurd reaction to the officiating in KC’s last game, which has been a running theme since the Bengals game in Week 2, I’m not sure the officiating won’t be overcorrected in this game to the point where the Chiefs can’t buy an easy call and are getting hit for the most ridiculous stuff to “balance” things out for the masses of idiots out there.

Every time you threaten the league with a conspiracy that it’s rigged for one team, I’d expect some kind of overcorrection. Maybe it’s calling a phantom DPI on the Chiefs on 3rd-and-long, a dubious roughing penalty for a hit on Josh Allen, and you can count on the Chiefs to get hit for holding to wipe out some good offensive gains (it’s a problem for them period).

Even the ref assignment reeks of “that’ll teach them” as the Chiefs are just 6-5 when Clete Blakeman is their ref, including some of the toughest losses in the Mahomes era (2018 AFC-CG, 54-51, their last home loss on Christmas 2023). He’s flag happy, and that’s not promising.

Purely from a matchup standpoint, the Chiefs should be healthier and have more players to help them in Week 11. I’m still not sold they didn’t try hard to win that game, but 4 targets for Kelce, not a single rush by Mahomes, and some other weird things like overuse of play-action and no QB spy on 4th & 2 vs. Allen tells me they were experimenting and should have some tricks up their sleeves this time Also, getting Nazeeh Johnson away from the field to play Jaylen Watson at corner should help.

Expecting the Bills to have edges at turnovers and refs, I think you also have to give them a better OL advantage. I’m still not sure the Chiefs aren’t hurting themselves by moving Joe Thuney to guard instead of keeping him there and playing DJ Humphries at left tackle. Might be taking away from the run, and that’s another issue. I think Hunt deserves more touches than Pacheco. The Chiefs have all these new, moving pieces (Hopkins, Hollywood) and I’m not sure they’ve figured out how to utilize them all properly yet. The margin for error has been tiny all year and they only lost one game, but it was also to their opponent today. That’s not good news. Harrison Butker also concerns me this year.

Andy Reid has lost 4 title games at home in his career, including twice with Mahomes after getting swept by the 2018 Pats and 2021 Bengals. The 2024 Bills could certainly join that list. It’s hard to bet against the Chiefs after last year’s title run, and then going 16-1 with starters, but maybe the Bills finally have enough to get the job done here.

This feels like a coin flip game and I don’t mean OT. It could just come down to Buffalo finishing +1 in turnovers and beating the Chiefs at their own game by walking that defense down the field for a GW FG with no time left (Tyler Bass’ redemption) after a Pacheco fumble. Yeah, that’s a 1990 NFC-CG Roger Craig reference, the closest three-peat attempt ever. The Chiefs should be properly motivated, but they’ve been playing with fire all year and I fear the Bills are the only team that can burn them in the AFC a step short of glory.

Final: Bills 27, Chiefs 24