Tag: Anthony Richardson

2024 NFL Stat Oddity: Week 8

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

In the last couple of weeks, the NFL’s 2024 season was running low on upsets and lead changes. But like clockwork, a so-so Week 8 on paper delivered one of the best Sundays of the season. I even alluded to something like that happening this weekend in the Week 8 predictions:

“But yeah, I have low expectations for this week, which means it will probably be an epic Sunday of close games after so few last week.”

It was. We had 10 games with a comeback opportunity (after 12 in Weeks 6-7 combined), four games with a lead change in the fourth quarter, and we saw one of the greatest Hail Mary finishes in professional football history (and that came in the week’s lowest-scoring game).

It also reportedly was the day with the most catches by tight ends in NFL history, so that’s a good way to celebrate National Tight Ends Day. If only we had a few more good ones in the league right now.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Bears at Commanders: Game of the Week

I basically had the recap to this one written in my mind twice before having to discard it for the insane actual ending that took place.

First, when it was 12-7 Washington, I was going to say that no matter who you put at quarterback, these teams are destined to play ugly, low-scoring games like this. A 12-7 final was the score between these teams in 2022 on a Thursday night game.

But the Commanders’ inability to finish any drive for a touchdown was hurting them put this one away even if Matt Eberflus’ team is the worst in close games. Jayden Daniels may have missed some throws he’d hit if the rib injury that nearly kept him out wasn’t there, and the Bears were making Bears things happen to lift their struggling quarterback like a 56-yard touchdown run by D’Andre Swift and blocking a 51-yard field goal in the fourth quarter. Or was the kick short? I thought it said block when it happened.

Either way, this is some Rex Grossman 101 on how to get carried to a win as Caleb Williams was giving them nothing in this rookie quarterback showdown.

Then with 6:21 left, the funniest NFL play in years happened. Maybe the funniest since The Butt Fumble in 2012. The Bears had the ball at the 1-yard line and could have taken the lead. But instead of doing a QB sneak or going to a running back, they brought in offensive lineman Doug Kramer and decided to go a little Refrigerator Perry by handing off to him for the dive run. What ensued had me laughing harder than any comedy I’ve seen in years:

It’s just that image of a big man, who clearly shouldn’t be handling the football here, losing it immediately, and the ball flying so far ahead of him as if the universe said “fuck no, this isn’t happening for you” that had me laughing my ass off for a good 40 seconds.

That was just too good. But then the Bears got the ball back, and Williams started completing passes, then he got the bail-out flag for DPI on 4th-and-3 to set them up at the goal line. That’s when my mind went to the idea that he’s played like shit all game and he’s probably still going to get a win against this defense. So, he’s the Tom Brady in this new rivalry to Daniels’ Peyton Manning. The inferior quarterback with the better defense is going to get the win again. Sure enough, they got the touchdown run and 2-point conversion pass to take a 15-12 lead with 25 seconds left.

Now, some people are going to chalk this up to a lucky Hail Mary, and there’s some truth to that. But give Daniels credit for the way this offense managed the drive after a bad kickoff left them with 76 yards and 19 seconds. They had one timeout left, which was key. After short-hopping the first throw, Daniels hit a completion to Zach Ertz for 11 yards, used the timeout, then took another sideline completion for 13 yards instead of forcing something that wasn’t going to be there that far away. That bought him a chance from the 48, needing a 52-yard touchdown pass.

But when he scrambled back and was around the 30, I was thinking he’s never going to recover to get the ball deep enough for the end zone. But after the play seemingly went on forever, Daniels finally launched and the crowd was there with a Bear tipping it right to Noah Brown, alone in the end zone for one of the most shocking touchdown finishes in NFL history.

https://x.com/NFL/status/1850683356742312348

Adding to the play’s mystique right away was the footage of Chicago DB Tyrique Stevenson caught jawing with fans in the crowd while the play was already underway. He joined the crowd late and ended up being the player who hit the ball that went to Brown for the win.

Just one of those unbelievable finishes to get the Commanders to 6-2. That might be a wrap on Offensive Rookie of the Year with Daniels throwing for 326 yards and rushing for 52 more. Williams only passed for 131 yards on 10-of-24 passing with 41 yards on the ground.

I don’t think a Hail Mary should be the centerpiece to an MVP campaign, but it is in line with the idea that Daniels understands drive engineering beyond his years, and you literally have to defend the whole field from him as a triple threat to throw it short, deep (he hit a 61-yard pass to McLaurin earlier in game), and as a runner.

Just the kind of ultimate weapon at quarterback, and we know his numbers in college were insane in 2023 (but not in previous years), and he’s doing these things in the NFL now. It’s been incredible to watch, and he really pulled a rabbit out of the hat to steal this one.

So, the funniest play in over a decade if you ask me, and a Hail Mary that is in the running for the best in NFL history. It wasn’t much of a game before those moments, but they will make it an unforgettable first matchup between Daniels and Williams.

Cowboys at 49ers: Almost Kyle Shanahan’s Masterpiece

Kyle Shanahan only gets partial (albeit a lot of) blame for 28-3 since he was Atlanta’s offensive coordinator and not the head coach. I think his masterpiece choke is still ahead of him, and Sunday night certainly would have been a contender if the 49ers really blew a 27-10 lead in the fourth quarter to a lifeless Dallas team by allowing two of the most wide-open touchdowns to CeeDee Lamb you’ll ever see.

This was a weird game as the Dallas defense was playing well in the first half to build a 10-6 lead, imploded in the third quarter, then somehow made this a game in the last 10:00 despite it looking dead.

You could see Shanahan can’t help himself as he kept calling passes for Brock Purdy when it got to 30-24, and on a 2nd-down sack, it was a miracle Purdy didn’t fumble on a blindside hit. That might have been the play of the game for San Francisco. But the 49ers still went three-and-out, and Dak Prescott had a full 3:05 to go get the winning touchdown like he did in Pittsburgh this season.

Except this time it was a disaster as the Cowboys didn’t gain a single yard and went four-and-out. I don’t know what the plan was on that drive as the only good play was Prescott throwing deep on third down to Turpin, and I’m not even sure that was smart given the down and distance, and it didn’t look like Turpin was going to get his feet in bounds with possession even if he caught it cleanly.

Then the 4th-down throw was just another prayer to a receiver who had no targets all night before that. Whatever, Dallas. It was fun while it lasted, but there’s a reason a massive comeback just never seems to happen for teams coached by Mike McCarthy. They’ll tease and tease you, but then look at that finish. Terrible, and that’s why you’re 3-4 and fading fast.

But the 49ers make you nervous as it doesn’t feel like any lead is safe with this team. Remember, they looked like they were going to blow a 20-point lead against the Seahawks a few weeks ago.

But as long as they keep getting double-digit leads in games, they’re probably going to win enough games to stay relevant through the playoffs. As for Dallas, I’m hoping we get some flexed games late in the season as this team is just tough to watch right now.

Ravens at Browns: Jameis Eats a W

Division games are weird, but what a relief for Cleveland to have a real quarterback who can take chances, make big plays, and not take a million sacks like Deshaun Watson did. Sure, Jameis Winston can always turn it over, and he tried his hardest with one of the worst dropped interceptions you’ll ever see from Kyle Hamilton with the game on the line to rescue Winston’s ass in this one.

But the Ravens did a pretty fine job of beating themselves with drops on both sides of the ball, and even Justin Tucker missed a 50-yard field goal in a clutch situation early in the fourth quarter as he hasn’t been himself this year on long kicks.

That’s not to say the Browns didn’t play well and really challenged the Ravens for 60 minutes. They would have held this high-powered offense to 3 points at halftime had Jameis not lost a fumble and set up a short field for the Ravens.

But the teams went back and forth throughout the half, and the Browns were in ideal situations, like a 24-23 deficit with 2:31 left to answer. I actually thought they screwed up with 1:08 left after getting a first down. In that spot, you wouldn’t mind just running a few times and kicking the field goal on the final snap.

But the Browns had a false start, the dropped pick by Hamilton, and just like that, you’re staring at a 56-yard field goal without a great kicker on the roster.

That’s when Jameis may have succeeded by fooling the Ravens by going deep in a situation you didn’t think he would, and he found Cedric Tillman wide open for a 38-yard touchdown with 59 seconds left. But the Browns missed the 2-point conversion, so it was only a 29-24 lead.

Lamar Jackson had a timeout, so 70 yards was doable for this offense. But once he got to the 24, I’m not sure spiking was the greatest decision, and they’d end up floundering on their last three cracks at the big play as no one could get open in the end zone. The Browns held up and got the win as an 8.5-point underdog.

I don’t think the formula is overly complex for beating the Ravens this year. The defense simply isn’t as good this season, the offensive line can give up some sacks at times, and you just have to contain those explosive runs by Henry and Jackson. The Browns are used to playing this team, even beat them last year with Predator, so it’s not that surprising that the Ravens have lost 3 games to entities they lost to last year too (Chiefs, Gardner Minshew, and Cleveland). They still have two games against Pittsburgh too, and if the Steelers can win Monday night to improve to 6-2, this loss becomes extra important.

But it is looking more and more likely that the Ravens won’t be the No. 1 seed again this season, or that they will have to go to Kansas City for any playoff rematch. As for the Browns, they waited too long to start Jameis, but at least they’re here now.

Jets at Patriots: Just End the Season

I asked in my Week 8 picks if this team was really pathetic enough to lose to the Patriots, Well, I got my answer. What does it take for this team to win a game anymore? They gave Aaron Rodgers a running game here, the receivers made some plays, the run defense wasn’t terrible, and Drake Maye left the game injured and was replaced by one of the worst comeback quarterbacks in Jacoby Brissett. Still, the Jets blew it.

I know the special teams are lousy, and I said that the other day on Twitter before they added to their legacy in this one by allowing a 62-yard punt return in the third quarter to set up the Pats on a short field for a touchdown. Then Greg Zuerlein missed a 44-yard field goal early in the fourth quarter that would have put the Jets up 19-14. Zuerlein could probably be cut at this moment and it wouldn’t hurt the team and might even help them if his confidence is really this shot.

But not converting on a 2-point conversion with 2:57 left certainly hurt the Jets as it always does when you leave yourself open to trailing on a touchdown. The defense couldn’t stop Brissett on multiple third-and-longs, then Rhamondre Stevenson pushed ahead for the touchdown on 4th-and-1 with 22 seconds left. Unlike the Jets, the Patriots converted their 2-point try to take a 25-22 lead.

Rodgers was in no man’s land, and even if by some miracle he got into field goal range, I’d bet on Zuerlein to miss it. But a completion to Davante Adams for 16 yards only saw the clock run out and drop the Jets to 2-6, the No. 15 team in the conference right now.

It’s shocking, but it’s also largely explainable. Poor situation play, a quarterback who isn’t what he used to be, a hack of a coordinator on offense to start the season, and some truly abysmal special teams play.

But still, 2-6? That’s brutal. Just end the season.

As I said the other day, Rodgers might just head into a dark retreat before the election, never to be heard from again (except for Tuesdays with Pat McAfee).

Chiefs at Raiders: All the Streaks Intact for KC

Go figure, the Chiefs (-9.5) were the only favorite not to cover the spread in the last six games on Sunday. But they still controlled this game in Vegas, their 13th win in a row, and they are back to consistently scoring 26-to-28 points on 8-to-10 drives as they have the last three weeks. That should scare you as this 7-0 team keeps showing improvements.

Just imagine how good things could be if the Chiefs eliminated the obligatory interception, which has taken over from the obligatory fumble this season. Yes, Patrick Mahomes was intercepted again in this game, and for the fourth time in a row, it wasn’t a bad play by him. His hand was hit as he threw, and you could see it coming as the Chiefs were penalized deep in their own end for holding on consecutive plays before that happened.

The Chiefs definitely have a left tackle problem (Wanya Morris), but one thing they still have is defense. After the interception set up the Raiders at the KC 3 in a 17-13 game, the defense delivered a goal-line stand, sacking Gardner Minshew on 4th-and-goal. Later on, CBS’ Trent Green had just finished saying that Minshew protected the ball before the Chiefs forced a fumble from him in a one-score game.

The Chiefs at least have a right tackle in Jawaan Taylor. Despite his penalty issues, the reason you didn’t hear much about Mason Crosby in this game is because Taylor took care of business. The offense looked very solid outside of that one penalty-to-pick sequence, and DeAndre Hopkins made a couple of nice catches in his team debut after getting the trade papers on Wednesday. Travis Kelce also finally caught a touchdown in 2024. The Chiefs were 12-of-15 on third down before Mahomes took 3 knees to wrap up the win after the team recovered an onside kick with 2:00 left.

We’ll see how much longer this team can keep up its unique winning streak in addition to the way it hasn’t allowed more than 27 points in any game since Super Bowl 57 (Eagles), nor has it scored more than 28 points since its last trip to Vegas in Week 12 last season.

But as long as the wins keep coming…

Bills at Seahawks: Can’t Stop the Rain (or Buffalo)

If I had known Thursday night that DK Metcalf was going to be out and it would rain badly during the game, I never would have suggested to bet Seahawks over 19.5 points to extend their streak of scoring at least 20 points in every game this season.

Sure, Josh Allen threw his first pick of the year and was fortunate to get away with a fumble in the slick conditions, but Seattle had no juice without Metcalf to move the ball consistently. The running game was nonexistent (Geno led team with 16 rushing yards), and Jaxon Smith-Njigba is not WR1 material yet.

That all ended in a mess in this 31-10 loss that never felt competitive. Actually, I take that back. The Seahawks had a shot when it was 7-3 Buffalo and they had 4th-and-goal at the 1. But Smith was stepped on at the line and just fell down, turning the ball over on downs.

The Bills hit them with a double score from there to make it 17-3, and that was enough to win this game if we’re being honest. A tough loss for the Seahawks, but also another game where the loss of a WR1 had a big impact. I don’t think it would have helped the defense defend Keon Coleman or Khalil Shakir, but at least the Seahawks would have scored some more points.

Eagles at Bengals: The Close Game That Wasn’t

I thought for sure this would be a close game in the fourth quarter so much that I had a +3000 SGP contingent on the Eagles winning by 1-6. All the other props hit as the skill players I expected to show up did with A.J. Brown having another big yardage game, Jalen Hurts actually scored three times on the ground, and Saquon Barkley did his thing again.

But the way this game played out was shocking as it went from a strong Cincinnati start with a red-hot Joe Burrow to an even game to a Philly blowout in what felt like a matter of minutes.

Where everything went south for Cincinnati was late in the third quarter. Hurts threw a great 45-yard touchdown to DeVonta Smith to take a 24-17 lead, and that seemed to set some panic in the Bengals, who went for a 4th-and-1 at their own 39. Don’t love the call, because this team isn’t like the Eagles where we know what’s coming on 4th-and-1 and we expect it’s going to work. Sure enough, the Bengals ended up throwing a pass outside the numbers to Ja’Marr Chase that was multiple yards short of the sticks, and it went down as a 2-yard loss. Terrible play.

The Eagles didn’t fully make them pay as they moved the ball and kicked a field goal, but it was still a 10-point game now in the fourth quarter. On the ensuing drive, Burrow threw a deep pass that was tipped from one defender and caught by C.J. Gardner-Johnson on the deflection, showing some great instincts. It was like watching Colin Kaepernick against the 2013 Legion of Boom, except it wasn’t in the end zone and this ball was coming down fast, so great reflexes by Gardner-Johnson to pull that one in.

Then the Eagles embarked on a brilliant drive that consumed half the quarter despite only facing third down once, and they finished it with another Hurts touchdown. It was 34-17 with 4:39 left – game over.

Now the Bengals (3-5) are talking about winning 7-of-9 to finish 10-7 for the playoffs. Yeah, it’s possible because of the AFC. But if those teams like the Steelers (5-2), Chargers (4-3), and Broncos (5-3) keep winning games, teams the Bengals still have four games against, it’s a moot point. Besides, the Bengals are 0-4 at home. Who is fearing this team right now?

But if this version of the Eagles can show up more, then that team has a shot in the NFC. I’m very curious to see how their matchups with Washington go. The first one is a Thursday night game in Week 11.

Titans at Lions: The Worst Special Teams Game Ever?

Earlier this week on Twitter, I said that I don’t view the Lions as an elite team after the Aidan Hutchinson injury. What I meant was I don’t see them finishing the season elite on both sides of the ball in the way that teams like the Ravens, 49ers, Bills, and Cowboys did last year. The Chiefs also played much better offense in the postseason and had one of the best defenses. You don’t win Super Bowls by winning a bunch of shootouts, and I don’t think Detroit was really blowing anyone out except for Dallas this season to this point.

Well, that made Sunday’s game awkward, because Mason Rudolph was shredding them early with two quick touchdown drives, Calvin Ridley had over 100 yards in the first quarter, and my proclamation of the post-Hutchinson defense looked right on.

But then the Lions just kept scoring on short fields that the Titans we regiving them with huge mistakes on special teams and blunders on offense. It was unreal. The Lions had drives that started at the Tennessee 23, 25, 12, 22, and 26 in this game, scoring 5 touchdowns on those drives. They also had a punt return touchdown among numerous other long returns. Definitely one of the worst special teams games you’ll see from a team.

At one point, Jared Goff had 28 passing yards and the Lions had 42 points. What the fuck? That’s not even net passing yards as Goff took 4 sacks and got away with 2 fumbles that weren’t recovered by the defense. That’s why his QBR was only 15.3, the second lowest this week.

The Lions finished with 61 net passing yards and 52 points, a combo that is hard to fathom in the NFL, especially when only one touchdown return boosted those numbers. But it was all the short fields and a 70-yard run by Jahmyr Gibbs that did the damage.

The Titans also had some pathetic play calling that stunted their scoring output despite the way they moved the ball well behind Mason Rudolph. But what a historic blowout. You have to go back to the 1950 Giants to find the only other time in the modern stats era (since 1933) where a team scored 50 points without surpassing 65 net passing yards. The stats in that game don’t even look real and may not even be 100% accurate. Who trails 20-0 before ripping off 55 points with 423 rushing yards and 51 passing yards?

But the Lions put on a show Sunday. Now they might get a break in their trip to Green Bay next week if Jordan Love can’t play.

Packers at Jaguars: Malik Willis’ Progress Is Season Saving for Green Bay

No one will know how Malik Willis would have performed in Tennessee this year if they kept him on as the backup instead of letting him go with Mason Rudolph in town. But Willis’ progress in Green Bay has been key to overcoming these Jordan Love injuries as the starter was knocked out with a groin injury in this one and his status is up in the air.

The Jaguars have played better in recent weeks, and they gave the Packers all they could handle in this one. Even after trailing by 10 points in the last 10:00, the Jaguars were able to tie the game at 27 with 1:48 left.

Just two plays into the ensuing drive, Willis hit a deep ball to Jayden Reed for 51 yards after the defender fell down on the play-action fake. That was basically all the Packers needed as they just ran the clock down before Brandon McManus walked them off for the second week in a row with a 24-yard field goal in a 30-27 win.

We know the Packers need Love to win a Super Bowl, but they are still thriving with Willis in this offense too. But they need to hear some good news on Love with the first Detroit game coming up next Sunday.

Colts at Texans: Can Indy Send Some Receivers to Houston If Anthony Richardson Is Going to Waste Them?

Watching Anthony Richardson is like a shock to the system when you think of the Colts with one of the most consistently accurate quarterbacks ever (Peyton Manning), and even Andrew Luck would get on a hot streak where he couldn’t miss.

But Richardson is something entirely different, and I don’t think it’s the type of quarterback you can ever expect to sustain offense with. He’s better at throwing 50-yard bombs than he is at anything under 10 yards. How can that work? In this game, he had a 69-yard touchdown pass, but he was 2-of-15 for 81 yards at halftime and gifted the Texans with a short field for a touchdown thanks to an awful pick.

I’m not sure how Shane Steichen stuck with him at quarterback instead of going to Joe Flacco, who you know can hit the easy throws in what was a winnable game for first place in the division.

I also don’t think Steichen was justified in not making the change. The Colts scored 10 points on their final 5 drives, but when it came time to set up a game-tying field goal, Richardson was MIA. He also dipped out of the game at one point for saying he was out of breath, something you just never hear from a quarterback.

As for the Texans, this was basically a repeat of the Buffalo win (also 23-20), except C.J. Stroud wasn’t the one turning it over in the fourth quarter to give the opponent a chance this time. The stat sheet will show fumble with the Colts in the red zone with 3:00 left, but that was Joe Mixon failing to handle a pitch on a run. They credit that to the quarterback since he was technically the last person with possession.

The Texans are fortunate the Colts were down and that didn’t go for a touchdown return to make it 27-23, because they didn’t have a ton of offense with Stefon Diggs leaving the game with no-contact injury. No word yet on that, but it didn’t look good for an offense that is already missing Nico Collins.

But at least the Houston defense finished the job against Richardson, who was 10-of-32 passing for 175 yards and 5 sacks. Remember, this defense held Josh Allen to 9-of-30 passing in a game a few weeks ago.  This makes Houston the only defense since the merger to hold 2 quarterbacks to no more than 10 completions on 30-plus attempts.

The Texans swept the Colts for just the second time ever. That was that 2016 season where the Colts blew the division to Brock Osweiler. Getting swept by Stroud is understandable, but it’s not looking good for Richardson to get on that level with consistent play.

Falcons at Buccaneers: Kirk Cousins’ Favorite Defense

These teams may have played the Game of the Year in Week 5, and this one started off strong too. Kirk Cousins threw for 509 yards last time and was on pace for a huge number again with 224 yards at halftime in this one. But he was held to 52 yards after halftime as his legs became a bigger story. Kyle Pitts also nearly went full Leon Lett in this one but was bailed out by replay on a very close call when his second touchdown was nearly fumbled through the end zone because of an early celebration.

Baker Mayfield had to get things done without Chris Godwin and Mike Evans, but he started well by utilizing tight end Cade Otton and the running backs (Rachaad White and Bucky Irving). But it felt like Atlanta eventually got wise to the lack of trust at wide receiver for these Bucs, and Mayfield started getting into some trouble with turnovers as has been the case in recent weeks.

A misplayed fake punt by the Bucs helped put them in a 2-score hole for the fourth quarter. But a safety after the Falcons couldn’t handle a snap made it a 31-19 game with plenty of time. Cade Otton caught his second touchdown, then the Falcons looked like they had a chance to run out the final 6:52. Cousins had a huge 13-yard scramble, converted a quarterback sneak on 4th-and-1 before the 2-minute warning. But when Younghoe Koo had a chance to give that important 8-point cushion with 1:01 left, he was wide right on a 46-yard field goal.

Uh-oh, typical Atlanta finish coming next, right? But that might have been the case with big-time receivers like Evans and Godwin available. The Bucs drove as deep as the Atlanta 33, but after a false start, Mayfield’s last gasp on a Hail Mary did not connect in the end zone. We’d get the real thing in Washington later that day.

But with the success of a team like the Commanders, it looks like the NFC South is only getting one playoff team this year, and the Falcons are in great shape now with a 5-3 record and a sweep over Tampa Bay. That was always the best way to end their reign in the NFC South, and don’t forget that Atlanta still has some of its easiest games left late in the season while the banged-up Bucs are in Kansas City next week.

Cardinals at Dolphins: Tua’s Back, But So Is Good Kyler?

Tua Tagovailoa returned to action for the first time since Week 2, and the good news is he put 27 points on the board, and he even made a big slide to protect himself on a third-and-long scramble.

The bad news is the Miami defense did not show up. Kyler Murray passed for 307 yards without taking a single sack. For an offense that has routinely been stuck to 17 points or less for the last month, Murray was able to overcome a 27-18 deficit in the fourth quarter. He led one touchdown drive, the Dolphins punted from midfield, then the Cardinals used up the final 5:01 on a stellar drive to set up a 34-yard field goal to win 28-27 on the final snap.

The Cardinals (4-4) are technically leading the NFC West thanks to that comeback win against the 49ers. The talent is there for this to be a really good offense, so we’ll see if they can put together more games like this. But it’s a tough loss for Miami (2-5), which falls to No. 10 in the AFC.

Saints at Chargers: The Ladd McConkey Game

It was a breakout moment for rookie wideout Ladd McConkey, who finished with 111 yards and 2 touchdowns in a 26-8 win that again came relatively easy for the Chargers. Justin Herbert played efficiently and even ran for 49 yards. He also survived a cheap shot from the Saints at his legs. I thought Greggggg Williams was long gone there? But the spirit remains.

It’s still surreal to see the Chargers winning a 26-8 game. In fact, the 2024 Chargers are the first team since the 2002 Panthers to go seven games into a season with none of the games going over 39.5 points. That was John Fox’s rookie season as coach and that streak lasted the first 8 games of the season.

If the Chargers can survive Jameis next week with this streak, they have a great shot to have the longest streak to start a season since the 1992 Seahawks, who hold the post-1930 record at 15 games.

But the Chargers (4-3) are at least winning this way.

Panthers at Broncos: Run It Up

Is it possible the Panthers only scored a garbage time touchdown with 18 seconds left because they were pissed at the Broncos for perceiving they tried to run up the score with a fake kick and throwing deep on fourth down with a 28-7 lead near the two-minute warning?

Either way, that late score gave Bryce Young 14 points in his latest start, or one more point than he led Carolina to in his previous four starts combined. Still, that’s 27 points over 5 games, and he is just not looking the part of NFL starter in Carolina.

But we should probably give some much-needed attention to how terrible the Carolina defense has been too after trading Brian Burns this offseason. Not that he could alone turn things around, but they’re really poor on that side too against the run and the pass. Rookie Bo Nix was absolutely shredding them and finished with 284 yards on 28-of-37 passing.

The Broncos are 5-3, but let’s see where things stand after they play the Ravens, Chiefs, and Falcons these next three games.

Next week: Jets were a rough game for C.J. Stroud last year, but who can trust the Jets to beat anyone at this point? Chargers-Browns is suddenly more interesting with Jameis (as God intended, you know). Broncos can test that defense against the Ravens in Baltimore. Flexing Jags-Eagles out of SNF was a good move, but Vikings-Colts is basically the same caliber at this point. Unless they put Flacco in to carve up that defense. Detroit-Green Bay would be the GOTW, but what is Love’s status? Terrible timing for a groin injury. Kansas City has a great shot to go to 8-0 against Tampa Bay on Monday night.

NFL Stat Oddity: Week 2

~ Scott ~ 20 Comments

Now that’s more like it. After a low-scoring Week 1, the NFL got back on track with a Week 2 slate (MNF doubleheader pending) that featured:

  • 10 games with a comeback opportunity
  • 10 300-yard passers (5 in Week 1)
  • 8 games where both teams scored more than 21 points (1 in Week 1)
  • 4 double-digit comeback wins (half in the 4th quarter alone)
  • 2 overtime games
  • 1 Hail Mary touchdown that will quickly be forgotten since it ended with a loss

Also, in Week 1, half the quarterbacks (16/32) had a QBR under 45.0 at ESPN. In Week 2, only 3-of-28 quarterbacks (10.7%) had a QBR under 45.0. I don’t have an updated database of this stat, but I have to imagine 3-of-28 would make this one of the best statistical weeks for quarterback play since 2006. At the very least, a week where not many people flat out sucked.

So far, it is looking like 2023 will be a very competitive season as teams like the Rams, Colts, and Cardinals may not be the epic dumpster fires they could have been. Even the Giants went from being outscored 60-0 to scoring 31 points in a win in one half today.

In the flash in the pan NFC, the Falcons, Buccaneers, and Commanders are all 2-0, though I’m not sure any of them has real staying power this year. Five of their 6 wins have been by a game-winning drive and the one that wasn’t needed a game-clinching pick-6 in a 3-point game today. The schedule will continue helping those NFC South teams, but I’m not ready to say any of these teams have “arrived” as surprises just yet.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Ravens at Bengals: When the Quarterback Health Pendulum Swings the Other Way

I haven’t been shy all summer about making the Ravens my pick to win the AFC North, and ultimately, they were my No. 1 seed and Super Bowl pick for the 2023 season. They haven’t let me down yet, and despite the injury concerns starting to mount, they still have health at the position that matters the most: quarterback.

It cannot be ignored that the Ravens were leading the AFC North in December in 2021 and 2022 on the day where Lamar Jackson suffered an injury that would end his seasons. Cincinnati then ended up winning the division both years, and it won a wild card game against backup Tyler Huntley, who fumbled on a quarterback sneak for the deciding touchdown.

I liked Baltimore all summer, and I liked them in this game because the quarterback health pendulum in the AFC North is finally swinging their way. Joe Burrow had a calf injury in July and missed a lot of camp and practice time. He simply may not be healthy enough to be starting games, but he is anyway. Last week, he threw for 82 yards on 31 attempts.

This time, he was 8-of-11 for 35 yards at halftime as the Ravens played ball control well and led 13-10 at halftime. Cincinnati’s only touchdown was an 81-yard punt return touchdown. The offense simply didn’t show up yet for the Bengals this season.

But after a red zone interception to start the second half, things did improve for the Bengals. They engineered two long touchdown drives on their final 3 possessions, though there was a bad 3-and-out in between.

Meanwhile, Jackson showed his value in what I would call one of the best games of his career. He only threw for 237 yards and rushed for 54 yards, but his game management was excellent. The Ravens averaged 3.0 points per drive, a league-leading number most years, and that’s even with a missed field goal and a clock-killing drive to close out the win.

Jackson helped the Ravens overcome a 2nd-and-23 in the fourth quarter on a drive that ended with a touchdown to Nelson Agholor to take a 27-17 lead. Then after the Bengals pulled to within 27-24 with 3:28 left, Jackson did his job and put the game away. He scrambled for 12 yards on a big third-and-3. Burrow, who finished with under 225 yards for the fourth time since 2022 against Baltimore, never got the ball back in a one-score game in the fourth quarter.

Baltimore has blown too many games like this in recent years, but not on Sunday. Now they are 2-0 with a road win over the 0-2 Bengals, who feel in worse shape than they did a year ago when they lost two tight games with the Steelers and Cowboys before going on a run. Burrow is also saying he tweaked the calf injury too. We’ll see how he looks on Monday night against Aaron Donald and the Rams in a Super Bowl rematch.

Clearly, it’s not how you start but how you finish in this league. But as long as Jackson remains healthy and plays more from the pocket as he did in this game, the Ravens are the team to beat in the AFC North this year.

Chiefs at Jaguars: Does Kansas City Have… a Defense?

Given what this game could have been and what it was, this was my dud of the week. I thought Jacksonville would make it more interesting after getting swept last year. Patrick Mahomes wasn’t on a high-ankle sprain, Travis Kelce was back, and Calvin Ridley was here to make a difference for Jacksonville at home.

Yet, the Chiefs had 12 penalties for 94 yards, turned it over 3 times, and they still won 17-9.

Wait, 26 points? It’s tied for the second-lowest scoring game involving Mahomes in his career. The lowest was 13-7 against the 2021 Packers in Jordan Love’s first start. The total was 51 points, so the 25 points under the total was the 5th-largest under performance in a game with Mahomes.

Mahomes targeted 11 different receivers in the first half, which felt like overkill for a team that searches for reliable targets. Kelce barely looked like a factor in his return until he caught a touchdown in the second half.

But had the Chiefs stopped nuking drives with penalties and taken better care of the ball – add another muffed punt, fumbled completion, and Mahomes was picked on an overthrown deep ball – this would have been a rout.

But that’s why they call it gambling. Just this week I wrote on another site about trusting your gut and doubling down on picks from week to week in this league. I then completely ignored myself.

In Week 1, I faded Calvin Ridley in his first game since 2021 in favor of Christian Kirk, the reliable target for Trevor Lawrence he built great chemistry with. Of course, Kirk had 1 catch for 9 yards while Ridley torched the Colts for 8/101/1.

Instead of doubling down on Kirk, I switched to Ridley for my week’s biggest parlay, thinking he would make a difference and have 60+ yards for the Jaguars in this game (O/U 72.5). Of course, Kirk caught 11-of-14 for 110 yards while Lawrence was 2-of-8 for 36 yards to Ridley. They just could not finish plays together, and that ended up being my only losing leg on a parlay I didn’t hedge. FML.

Lawerence was only 22-of-41 for 216 yards in what I would say was his worst passing game against the Chiefs yet. Chris Jones had 1.5 sacks in his return, including a big stop on a fourth down early in the game. That did not help Jacksonville’s efforts, but compared to 2022, they went backwards on offense in this rivalry, and it does not look like they are ready to step up to the big boys in 2023. This game was only moderately close because of Kansas City’s self-inflicted mistakes with all the false starts and turnovers.

Also, just like last week against Detroit, it is wild what teams do against Mahomes out of fear. The Jaguars were down 17-9 and instead of kicking a 34-yard field goal with 4:18 left (time plus 4 clock stoppages in hand), they went for a 4th-and-12 at the Kansas City 16. Not a 4th-and-2 but a 4th-and-12. I’m not sure about that one, especially when you are down 8 and would need another possession and score anyway to win this game. If you don’t think you can stop Mahomes again, then you’re losing the game regardless. I probably kick the field goal there, especially since Lawrence’s accuracy was poor.

Sure enough, Lawrence threw incomplete to Ridley (FML) and that was that. Mahomes added to his quickly growing legacy of being the best quarterback ever in the 4-minute offense. He scrambled 14 yards for a first down, then on a pivotal 3rd-and-6 with 2:03 left, he improvised and found Skyy Moore with a deep ball for a 54-yard gain to essentially ice this one. The running game picked up one more first down to make sure it ended 17-9.

The Chiefs go into the history books again, not losing any of their last 35 games by more than 4 points.

But with games against the Bears and Jets up next, the storyline of the Chiefs having an elite defense in 2023 should continue into October. We’ll see if that holds true when the tougher tests come up later in the season. But if you get the offense back to firing on all cylinders and actually sustain a great defensive performance, then I’m not sure anyone is beating this team this year.

They are playing C+ caliber games and were a Kadarius Toney drop away from being 2-0 against a pair of division favorites.

Dolphins at Patriots: Good Enough to Lose Close – Part 2

Same headline as last week for New England, which is 0-2 for the first time since 2001 after losing to another contender at home in a one-score game. But in many ways, it was an old-school Patriots game:

  • Bill Belichick’s defense helped contain the hottest passing duo from last week, holding Tua Tagovailoa to 249 yards and only 40 for Tyreek Hill.
  • He did this at the expense of allowing Miami to get more from its ground game, which would have been fine if not for a 43-yard touchdown run in the fourth quarter by Raheem Mostert.
  • The Patriots blocked a 49-yard field goal in the third quarter.
  • Rookie corner Christian Gonzalez came away with an interception in the fourth quarter when the Dolphins were at midfield with a first down.
  • An aborted snap by Miami killed a 3rd-and-1, then the Dolphins missed a 55-yard field goal that would have given them a 10-point lead with 2:14 left to all but ice it, leaving the door open for the Patriots.

But instead of a touchdown drive, the Patriots still had to put Mac Jones on the field with a bunch of No. 2 and No. 3 wideouts (at best). Bradley Chubb made his presence felt with a huge sack that set up a 2nd-and-18, which the Patriots never recovered from.

On a 4th-and-4 at Miami’s 33, Jones had to hurry a pass under pressure, and it was caught well short of the sticks. The Patriots sunk their 2022 season with an ill-advised lateral in Vegas, but this time the lateral was necessary. It almost worked too, but the offensive lineman was reviewed to come up inches short of the first down. Game over.

Just like last week against Philadelphia, the Patriots were inches away from converting a fourth down on a potential game-winning touchdown drive. I think it is possible the Patriots would have gone for 2 and the win here, but we’ll never know as they came up short again.

It wasn’t the kind of performance that should be vaulting the Dolphins up the lists of power rankings, Super Bowl odds, or Tagovailoa for MVP. But it was good enough for a win against a team that used to be harder to beat. Alas, Tagovailoa is the first quarterback to win 5 straight games against Belichick. He hasn’t played the best against his defense by any means, but this is where the AFC East is now in the 2020s.

Chargers at Titans: Nothing Has Changed for the Chargers

Chargers coach Brandon Staley wanted no part of hearing about the Jacksonville playoff loss after the Chargers fell to 0-2 with another blown lead.

Technically, Staley is right that a January playoff loss is not the reason the Chargers lost these last two games in the 2023 season. However, I don’t think he gets to avoid this narrative as his team continues to blow games it seemed to have in hand, and his defense continues to suck with the game on the line.

I would pose these questions to Staley.

Why is it Year 3 and every game still comes down to you relying on Justin Herbert to perform miracles and make sure the defense doesn’t have to come back on the field to blow it?

You say your roster has finishers, yet why aren’t any of them on defense, your specialty? In Herbert’s 5 game-winning drives last season, this is how much time was left on the clock so that your defense couldn’t find a way to blow it:

  • 4 seconds vs. Titans
  • 15 seconds vs. Cardinals
  • 0 seconds vs. Falcons
  • Walk-off in overtime vs. Broncos
  • 9:29 vs. Browns, who later missed a game-winning 53-yard field goal with 0:11 left

Congrats on the missed field goal. Your defense hasn’t produced a legitimate stop to preserve a close win since forcing the Steelers into a 4th-and-32 in 2021. By the way, that was the game you blew a 27-10 lead in the fourth quarter of, and you again relied on a Herbert touchdown pass to regain the lead.

The Titans couldn’t throw last week in New Orleans, and yet Ryan Tannehill almost couldn’t miss in Week 2 against this defense. He was 20-of-24 for 246 yards with his below-average receivers. The only issue was taking 5 sacks as the revamped line was missing rookie first-round pick Peter Skoronski.

But once again, the Chargers were in a dogfight after leading 11-0 early. Herbert’s second touchdown pass to Keenan Allen gave the Chargers a 21-17 lead with 14:38 left. On the next drive, the Chargers ran the ball on 3rd-and-4 and punted on a 4th-and-2 at their own 42. Weren’t you the 4th-down guy for a hot minute in 2021?

Later, the Titans scored a go-ahead touchdown, which was answered by a game-tying field goal to force overtime by the Chargers. Short throws and a big 3rd-down sack by Harold Landry kept the Chargers out of the end zone from the game-winning touchdown.

In overtime, Herbert threw three straight incompletions as the team missed Austin Ekeler against a Tennessee defense that loves shutting the run down. The Titans had no issues moving into range for Nick Folk to hit a 41-yard field goal to win the game 27-24.

The Chargers have lost 4 straight games, and this was actually the first time they allowed fewer than 30 points during this stretch.

At this rate, Staley will soon learn what a finisher looks like on the Chargers. It will be the person who takes him to an empty room to see the boss.

Jets at Cowboys: Back to Reality

There was a lot of wishful thinking that the Jets could salvage this season after losing Aaron Rodgers and upsetting the Bills on Monday night. But either the Cowboys are too good, or the Jets are going to be awful, because this 30-10 rout was tough to watch. The Jets basically made one play on offense, a 68-yard touchdown pass to Garrett Wilson. Otherwise, Zach Wilson was 11-of-26 for 102 yards and 3 picks.

At least the picks didn’t happen until it was 27-10 in the fourth quarter, but the Jets failed this game in the sense that they couldn’t even be competitive as the “run the ball and play great defense” team they need to be with Wilson at quarterback.

Wilson ended up accounting for 36 of the team’s 64 rushing yards. You would have thought Breece Hall could have been leaned on, but he had 4 carries for 9 yards. The fuck is that?

Defensively, the Jets forced 0 turnovers, allowed 9-of-18 on third down, and Dak Prescott (31-of-38 for 255 yards) generally did what he wanted to. CeeDee Lamb caught 11-of-13 targets for 143 yards, so it’s not like you can’t throw on these guys like they’re the 2009 Jets or something.

With 15 more Jets games to go, it’s really a shame what happened to Rodgers. This team’s brutal early schedule was going to be tough with him, but there are going to be more ugly days ahead for this team.

Dallas, my Super Bowl pick in the NFC, is looking great at 70-10 on the scoreboard, only the 7th team since 1970 to be at least plus-60 through two games. But it will be nice to see them play a real team who can hit back instead of these New York punching bags.

Oh shit, they get Arizona next too. At least they face the 49ers in Week 5. With the Eagles not impressive so far, the Cowboys and 49ers may be the best in the NFC this season.

49ers at Rams: Shanahan Continues Mastery of McVay

The 49ers have the most talented offense in the NFL and look like the most complete team so far. But after this 30-23 win, I think it’s safe to say the No. 1 thought on the minds of football fans is can Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua co-exist on the Rams and build the greatest receiving duo of all time? All these guys do is get open and catch the ball, so imagine if there were two of them.

Nacua did it again, going over 10 catches and 100 yards for the second week in a row, the only player to ever start his career like that. His 15 catches are a single-game rookie record. He also has 25 catches in his first two games, shattering Earl Cooper’s record of 19 for the 1980 49ers. Before you credit Joe Montana for running Bill Walsh’s innovative West Coast Offense for that record, it was actually Steve DeBerg at quarterback in those games. Incredibly, Cooper was just a fullback (later converted to tight end) and only caught 213 passes in 93 games in his career.

But this surprising rise of a 5th-round rookie in Nacua, who only caught 107 passes in 4 years of college football at Washington and BYU, can only be surpassed by the continued success of Brock Purdy, Mr. Irrelevant.

Purdy is the only quarterback in NFL history to go 10-0 in the first 10 games where he threw at least 20 passes. He did not have a touchdown pass in this one, but he led the offense effectively again, and he ran for a big game-tying touchdown before halftime with 1 second left where failure would have meant no points.

The second half looked closer to last year when the 49ers harassed Stafford into sacks and turnovers. They did it again, picking off a pair of passes. The big one came with the Rams down 27-20 with 4:58 left. While the 49ers went three-and-out after that pick, they were already in the red zone and added a field goal for a 30-20 lead.

Eventually, the Rams ended up kicking a 38-yard field goal on the final snap that only accomplished screwing over bettors who had 49ers -7.5 in this 30-23 final.

The Rams did not have a play longer than 20 yards, but you have to hope they can get Kupp and Nacua going together in a few weeks. Stafford’s ability to lock onto a receiver may be unmatched seeing as how the only two 1,900-yard receivers in NFL history (Calvin Johnson and Cooper Kupp) had Stafford at quarterback. It can be a blessing and a curse but imagine if he finds a way to use both receivers together.

Despite the loss, Rams fans should feel better about this season than they did two weeks ago. McVay can still coach, but unfortunately, Shanahan continues getting the best of him.

Commanders at Broncos: Did They Hire the 7-9 Version of Sean Payton?

When the Broncos were up 21-3, I figured I could get away with a single paragraph recap of how Sean Payton got Russell Wilson to hit some deep balls with his new toy (Marvin Mims), and it was an easy first win for Denver. But nope, they blew a league-high 7th fourth-quarter lead since 2022. The 18-point blown lead is the largest in Wilson’s career, and he took 7 sacks and his lost fumble in the second quarter was the turning of the tide in this one.

Washington hung in there with Sam Howell passing for 299 yards against what was supposed to be a strong secondary. The Commanders seemed to get stronger after Logan Thomas took a cheap shot from Kareem Jackson on a fourth-and-goal touchdown before halftime to cut the lead to 21-11. Denver’s offense continued to fall apart from there while the Commanders were able to take the lead for good early in the fourth quarter just as they did a week ago against the Cardinals.

Denver hurt itself with another penalty to wipe out a three-and-out, which Washington turned into a touchdown drive and 35-24 lead. The Wilson-led offense took a while to get a field goal to make it 35-27, then used timeouts to get the ball back with 48 seconds, needing 87 yards.

It will go down as a forgotten one-minute drill that worked out for a touchdown after an incredible tipped Hail Mary was caught from 50 yards out with no time left. But instead of forcing the third overtime game of the day, the Broncos had a specific play design that needed to go to Courtland Sutton, and Wilson’s pass was not caught.

I think you could easily argue defensive pass interference, which would have put the ball at the 1-yard line and a retry. But story of Payton’s career, he couldn’t get an obvious DPI flag in a big spot.

After losing winnable home games to the Raiders and Commanders and going to Miami next, the Broncos could easily be staring at an 0-3 start.

Giants at Cardinals: Was That Tanking?

The battle for New York’s worst football team was in rare form with the Giants doing their best to topple the Jets, who were simultaneously getting crushed by Dallas. Always nice to see something you’ve never seen before, and the Giants did that for those of us born after Alien came out in 1979.

The 2023 Giants were outscored 60-0 through six quarters of action this year. That has only been topped since the 1970 merger by the 1978 Baltimore Colts, who were outscored 86-0 early into Game 3 of their season before they finally got on the board. Worse, the Cardinals were the team doing this to New York. The same Cardinals who are projected to finish with the worst record and No. 1 pick.

But for a half, the Cardinals didn’t seem interested in Caleb Williams. Not when Josh Dobbs was running through defenders on a 23-yard touchdown run. But while we were making fun of the Giants, a switch appeared to be flipped at halftime. These teams came out much differently, and the Giants were able to explode for 31 points in the second half alone to come back and win the game after trailing 28-7 with 9:34 left in the third quarter.

My criticism of Jonathan Gannon’s defense in Philadelphia was that good, smart quarterbacks could tear his scheme apart with quick, short passes. Suddenly, that pass rush doesn’t get there at all, and the coverage is soft as he just wants to avoid the big plays. Well, the Giants immediately came out in the third and hit a 58-yard bomb to rookie speedster Jalin Hyatt. It also hurts when you don’t have players like Haason Reddick, Fletcher Cox, and Darius Slay to make your defense better.

Daniel Jones added a few occasional scrambles, but he basically picked apart the Cardinals on his way to 321 yards passing. He was only sacked 3 times for 9 yards, so the pass rush did not repeat the success it had against Washington last week.

The Cardinals were a missed field goal away from scoring on their first 6 drives, but they were scoreless on the final 4 drives. While James Conner had a big game with over 100 rushing yards, it is hard to say it didn’t look like this team was mailing it in and accepting defeat after the Giants tied it at 28.

With 4:25 left, the Cardinals went 1-yard Conner run, 3-yard Conner run, back-to-back false starts on the same player, and then a failed completion for 5 yards before a three-and-out punt. Weak.

Jones drove the Giants into field goal range from there and Graham Gano was good from 34 yards away with only 19 seconds left. Dobbs’ Hail Mary was knocked away incomplete and the game was over.

Maybe the Cardinals are not going to be 2-15 bad after blowing a pair of 4th-quarter leads to start this season. But when you look at the schedule, they might not win until November now after blowing this opportunity.

But maybe that’s perfectly fine with this franchise.

Seahawks at Lions: Detroit Better Hope This Isn’t Another Tie-Breaker

These teams play fun games. Last year, it was a 48-45 shootout, but this one was better since there were actually lead changes. Seattle led wire-to-wire last year, and that win was the main reason the 9-8 record was good enough for the No. 7 seed ahead of Detroit. The Lions better hope that doesn’t happen again after losing another winnable home game to this team.

The best quarterback duel of Week 2 was naturally Geno Smith vs. Jared Goff as everyone expected. Both were sharp, but Goff’s pick-six, which ended a nearly 400-attempt streak without a pick, looked like it would doom the Lions, putting them in a 31-21 hole with 8:04 left.

But Goff came right back to lead a touchdown drive, then Smith took a horrific sack on a third down back to his own 3, helping to set Goff up at the 50 with 1:44 left. However, Seattle’s defense held after it seemed like Detroit was content with overtime.

The Seahawks won the toss and received first. Just like the team used to do best in the early days of Russell Wilson a decade ago, the offense drove right down the field for a game-winning touchdown to end it without the opponent having a chance. Tyler Lockett’s second touchdown of the day secured the 37-31 win.

In the end, the right team won. The Lions were minus-3 in turnovers and turned it over on downs twice. The Seahawks missed 2 field goals in the second quarter too.

There is some “live by the sword, die by the sword” with coach Dan Campbell’s aggressiveness. Should the Lions have gone for it on a 4th-and-2 at their own 45 while leading 21-17 with 32 seconds left in the third quarter? They failed and the Seahawks only had to go 45 yards for the go-ahead touchdown, which they scored. Traditionally, teams punt there, hope to back them up, and protect the lead. Get the job done on your next offensive possession, and it’s not like points were guaranteed on a first down at midfield if you convert.

But it is what it is. The Lions are 1-1, winning a game they easily could have lost and losing a game they could have easily won. They just better hope they remain the team to beat in the NFC North and don’t have to compete with Seattle for another wild card tie-breaker.

Packers at Falcons: Hamstrung in Atlanta

The Falcons made this a lot harder than it needed to be. The spread swung from Falcons +1.5 to Falcons -3 due to the Packers not having their best running back (Aaron Jones), best wide receiver (Christian Watson), and best offensive lineman (David Bakhtiari). Even though Jordan Love was again very aggressive, he avoided any picks, but he did throw for just 151 yards. His running game only hooked him up with 61 yards, so the loss of Jones was crucial.

Running powered the Atlanta offense again with 211 yards on the ground, though Desmond Ridder did run for 39 yards and a huge touchdown himself on a 4th-down call while the Falcons trailed 24-12 in the fourth quarter. He also threw for 237 yards this week.

The red zone is where Atlanta made life difficult on themselves (2-for-5 on touchdowns). The offense was fortunate the defense held Green Bay without a first down on its 3 possessions in the fourth quarter.

Head coach Arthur Smith also made quite the gambling by going for a 4th-and-1 at the Green Bay 23 with 2:08 left in a 24-22 game. Granted, no one wants to kick a field goal and give an offense nearly 2 full minutes to get a game-winning field goal. But a failure there on a quick snap and there was a fair chance he’d never see the ball again. It almost looked like Smith would go for it again on a fourth down to really ice the game and make the field goal the last snap, but he kicked the 25-yard field goal with 57 seconds left.

Still, that is plenty of time to get into range these days, but Love was unable to get a first down. His pass on 4th down was not bad, but the receiver looked like he trapped it, so it was ruled incomplete. Even if he caught it, an illegal shift penalty would have negated the gain and set up 4th-and-15.

Fun win for Atlanta but being the home team and taking on a team without three of its best players definitely helped this week.

Bears at Buccaneers: Justin Fields Is Not a Serious QB

I find it hard to believe Justin Fields’ average time to throw was 3.03 seconds, the 6th-slowest time in Week 2 (source: Next Gen Stats). Every time I saw a clip of him today he was holding the ball forever and taking awful sacks. He ended up taking 6 sacks and the running game was held in check again with only 67 yards, including just 3 from Fields despite his short touchdown run.

While D.J. Moore had 104 yards and Chase Claypool showed up to catch a touchdown, it was still a poor offensive performance. The Buccaneers won out in yards 437-236, but it was still only a 20-17 game with 2:24 left.

Like last year, Fields only needed a field goal and couldn’t get in position. He tried to throw a screen pass to his running back and Shaq Barrett made a great play to snatch the ball for a pick-six.

You can certainly give credit to the defender for blowing this up, but that looked like a play that was going to gain no positive yards anyway. Meanwhile, Baker Mayfield efficiently threw for 317 yards with 171 of them going to Mike Evans. The Buccaneers have scored 20 points in back-to-back games, something they did once all last season with the King of Kings at quarterback.

It was my prediction that Mayfield would outplay Tom Brady this year, but the Bucs would have a worse record because of what will happen in close games without the LOAT. That could still happen. Plus, beating up on the Bears and Vikings (two awful defenses in 2022) is not the best argument for this being anything but fool’s gold. But Mayfield is making this work so far.

Raiders at Bills: Buffalo Can Take a Deep Breath

Bills fans may have been nervous after the Raiders marched right down the field for a touchdown to start the game. But that was the highlight of the day for Vegas. Josh Allen played a very safe, controlled, and efficient game (31-of-37 for 274 yards and 3 TD) and spread the ball around well. The run defense held Josh Jacobs to -2 yards on 9 carries. They intercepted Jimmy Garoppolo twice, including a play where Matt Milano just flat out stole the ball from Jacobs. James Cook ran for 123 yards even if he padded a bit with a 36-yard run while the Bills led 38-10 at the two-minute warning.

But it was an all-around dominant team performance from the Bills, who might still be the biggest threat to the Chiefs in getting back to the Super Bowl. We’ll see how Baltimore and Cincinnati shake out.

Colts at Texans: Steichen’s First Win

When the Colts hired Shane Steichen and drafted Anthony Richardson, the logical connection was always that he could develop him on the Jalen Hurts curve that he did in Philadelphia. But maybe something a lot of us forgot here is that this means Richardson could be an effective goal-line rusher and score a lot of touchdowns like Hurts did last year on his way to a record.

I noticed it right away in Week 1 when it looked like Richardson was going to score 2 rushing touchdowns against Jacksonville before he left the game injured on the last drive. That is why Richardson to score twice (+1400 at FanDuel) was one of my favorite props this week. I just didn’t expect him to score on runs of 18 and 15 yards in the game’s first 5:47.

I also didn’t think he’d leave the game with a concussion suffered on the second one.

It is not a good sign at all that Richardson was unable to finish either of his first two games, but for what little we have seen, the potential is exciting. Even Hurts only has 3-of-33 career touchdown runs from longer than 10 yards out, so Richardson exploding like that looked closer to a young Vince Young (2006) or Lamar Jackson (2019). Just hope he can stay healthy, but Gardner Minshew was a heck of an addition as someone who can step in and sling it in a familiar system. Minshew only entered the game at 12:45 in the second quarter and still passed for 114 yards in the quarter, which is almost as many as Joe Burrow had for Cincinnati in his first six quarters this year (117).

As for Houston, it was a tough day with most of the starting offensive line out and no help from the running game from C.J. Stroud, who took 6 sacks and had to play from a double-digit deficit almost the entire game. But even in that suboptimal situation, he was 30-of-47 for 384 yards, 2 touchdowns, and no picks. He did lose one of two fumbles, similar to last week. But it is a good learning experience for the rookie.

After not getting a win over Houston last year, the Colts should feel more optimistic about the Steichen era after Sunday’s 31-20 win. But for a fanbase that has seen health problems end the tenures of Peyton Manning and Andrew Luck, it is a worrisome start for Richardson in that area.

Next week: Not looking great.