Tag: Bears

2025 NFL Stat Oddity: Divisional Round

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

The 2025 NFL Divisional Round was a mixed bag of a weekend. We had an overtime classic that played out like a Greek tragedy that probably had both locker rooms crying after it was over.

We had a total rout that you could have called after the opening kickoff return for a touchdown. Spike their boombox and everything. We had a disgusting game in snowy New England on the 22nd anniversary of the 2003 AFC Championship Game that looked familiar. Then we had another game that maybe won’t reach overtime classic status because of the overtime itself, but it did offer one of the most thrilling game-tying touchdowns in defeat in NFL playoff history.

But we’re left with a final four of the Broncos, Patriots, Rams, and Seahawks. It was that close to being the top two seeds in each conference, which would have been incredibly lame for such an unpredictable season.

But in the end, it’s those AFC schedule merchants (minus QB1 in Denver) and the two best teams in the best division in the NFC West getting a rematch for the Game of the Year.

First, a recap of what could be a significant weekend in NFL history, or maybe it’s just a one-off leading to the ridiculous conclusion of Sam Darnold holding a Super Bowl MVP trophy that Donald Trump will want, or God forbid, Jarrett Stidham doing his best Nick Foles impersonation and going to the Jets for $80M to shit his pants the next few years.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Bills at Broncos: The One Where Both Teams Lost

In a game that could have catapulted Josh Allen or Bo Nix to their first Super Bowl, Saturday’s 33-30 overtime classic ended up being a great day for Drake Maye instead. A game that could have huge ramifications in the AFC going forward, it was one where I joked during it that I wish both teams could lose, and they kind of did.

While many in the media want to push this narrative that you have to “feel sorry” for Josh Allen and the Bills, I don’t. I only feel sorry for Bo Nix and the Broncos fans as he was actually the one quarterback this postseason who really played well enough to elevate his legacy. And now he can’t continue this season after breaking his ankle in overtime.

In a game where people thought you had to attack the Buffalo defense with the running game, Sean Payton put it in Bo Nix’s hands on 58-of-68 plays (85.3%), often ignoring handoffs altogether on first downs. In the end, he sure wishes he would have called a RB carry on first down instead of this funky play that I blasted right away on Twitter, not knowing the 2-yard loss would be the play that broke Nix’s ankle and ended his season for surgery.

Nix didn’t take a single sack. He tied the single-season record with his eighth game-winning drive of the year, and now it’s over as Jarrett Stidham has to start the AFC Championship Game against the Patriots, his former team, next week. Just doesn’t seem real or fair, but that’s the outcome here for Nix after he played really well.

That’s the big news out of this one, and I have all week to cover where the Broncos go from here with Stidham. But the other story is Allen and the Bills losing for the seventh-straight postseason short of the Super Bowl after it was supposed to be their year. This one felt different, didn’t it? Players were visibly crying, including a teary-eyed Allen in his post-game presser.

This team has lost some huge games during this run, but I think they’re taking this one the worst because they knew this was their year. The “no excuses” stuff in the media for Allen was never hyperbole. Without the Kansas City Chiefs, the team they were 0-4 in the playoffs against, in the playoff field, this was their best shot. If you watched the way the Patriots and Texans played on Sunday, then you know damn well this was their best shot yet at getting to that elusive Super Bowl before Allen’s 30th birthday in May.

But the league’s greatest bridesmaid has to make peace with the fact that he had his worst playoff game yet, turning it over four times on one of the most feast-or-famine performances in NFL history. The Bills are the only team in NFL history to have three touchdowns, three field goals, five turnovers, and zero punts in a game. All 11 drives were scores or turnovers, and James Cook only had one of the turnovers that weren’t charged to Allen. Otherwise he had over 100 rushing yards.

Khail Shakir had a huge YAC play, Keon Coleman made a nice touchdown, and Dalton Kincaid played very well and caught a touchdown. Again, the “no excuses” thing was not hyperbole, and for all the talk about Allen needing to be Superman, it’s a miracle you can turn the ball over five times and still have a chance to win this thing on the road. That just proves the margin for error for Allen was actually higher than some believe.

Allen did some very good things in this game and was effective enough to score 30 points. But there were key mistakes and misses that will haunt him all offseason.

  • There was the horrific decision to be aggressive with 0:16 left in the half where Allen scrambled and fumbled, gifting the Broncos 3 big points.
  • Allen’s strip-sack to start the second half led to another Denver field goal, a win for the Buffalo defense that had to defend a short field and only gave up 2 yards.
  • Allen wasted a Nix interception by throwing one of his own.
  • Leading 24-23, Allen short-hopped a bad throw to Shakir on a 3rd-and-8 with 4:14 left, and the Bills had to settle for a field goal instead of a touchdown.
  • Allen missed a very open Dawson Knox for a potential game-winning touchdown before settling for a field goal and overtime.
  • In overtime, Allen threw a very low pass to Mecole Hardman that he tried to reach down for before losing control of it. A better throw gets a big play there.
  • That set up the fateful 3rd-and-11 where Allen underthrew a deep ball that Brandin Cooks had to slow down for, which helped Ja’Quan McMillian catch up to the receiver and take the ball from him for an interception that ended up being Allen’s last play of the game.

I’ve said for the last year that Allen is a turnover waiting to happen in the playoffs. His turnover numbers have always been misleading because of all the dropped interceptions he’s had in games against Kansas City alone. He also had 12 fumbles with only 2 lost, so that was lucky too.

Guess turnover regression came in every form for the Bills in 2025 as he finally met a defense who wouldn’t drop his picks or fail to recover his fumbles. After the Bills turned it over for the fifth time, the Broncos just needed a field goal. To that point, there were only five penalties in the entire game on both teams, so they were letting them play despite Denver’s poor habits of leading the league in penalty yardage.

One of the biggest calls was a holding penalty that would have wiped out a Keon Coleman touchdown had he held onto it. But he dropped it, so that brought up fourth down on that drive earlier in the game.

But for the most part, the refs were a moot point until they became the story on Denver’s game-winning drive with 53 yards worth of penalties on Buffalo’s defense.

The first penalty, I don’t know if it was a good call or not for DPI, but I know I don’t really care since Joey Bosa was also flagged for roughing for a late hit. So, it was either 15 or 17 yards and an automatic first down either way for Denver. They ended up getting 2 extra yards out of it, so no beef there.

Then the 30-yard DPI flag on Tre’Davious White for contacting Mims early. I think that was pretty textbook DPI. Then White was flagged for throwing his helmet off right in front of a ref, a foolish penalty to take. Then Denver was able to kick the field goal and win it 33-30.

I think the final drive was officiated fairly, but let’s back up to the last Buffalo drive as that’s the one people are throwing a big stink about.

If you want to talk about a cruel twist of fate, this game could have ended 32-30 on a safety for offensive holding on Buffalo in the end zone. Denver would have won that way after a clear hold was missed at the start of the drive, and Bo Nix would be healthy and playing on Sunday to go to the Super Bowl. Alas, it was missed.

Then with the throw to Cooks, you maybe could argue McMillian got there early and we had some DPI. That might actually be the better argument than saying it was a catch, because I can’t believe the number of people this week who don’t understand why this was ruled an interception. The Calvin Johnson Rule, the “complete the process” and the “survive the ground” concepts have only been around for the last 15 years in the NFL.

This was not simultaneous possession because they never both had control of the ball at the same time, so forget that idea of tie goes to the offense. For this to be a catch by Cooks, he has to complete the process of the catch going to the ground, so his knee or shin being down while being touched is irrelevant. He’s not a runner trying to get a down by contact ruling. He’s making a diving catch and he has to survive the ground. He didn’t.

When Cooks lands and flips over, he loses control of the ball and McMillian has it firmly in his grasp and it didn’t touch the ground. That’s an interception. I like the argument of removing the defender from the picture altogether. If Cooks lands there and the ball pops out with no defender to go to, they’d rule that incomplete every time in January 2026. But since the ball was lost to a defender without it hitting the ground, it’s an interception.

I don’t see it as that controversial either. There were closer calls on other plays this year like the pick the Rams got on SNF against Cade Otton and the Bucs when his knee was down as he was trying to get control of a ball he bobbled. This was a pick.

This was a pick for Payton Wilson against the Ravens in 2024 when he took the ball away from Justice Hill who got multiple feet down, then went to the ground and lost control of the ball. Interception.

You may not like the rule or the way it’s written, but I think this clearly was an interception for Denver as Cooks lost control of the ball before he completed the process. If you watch it at real speed (see the last 7 seconds here), it’s hard to deny this was a fluid motion with McMillian emerging with a ball Cooks lost:

Deal with it, Buffalo fans, that was a pick. I also think a big stink over this is because it was thrown by Allen, who we’re told by the likes of Albert Breer and Orlovsky that we’re supposed to feel sorry for after a game like this. Had Bo Nix thrown this pick and the Bills went on to win, I imagine a far quieter outcry over the ruling on the field.

Five turnovers on the road, four from your quarterback, it just can’t happen. That’s why the Bills came up short yet again. It wasn’t the run defense. It wasn’t because Tyrell Shavers was on injured reserve. Their best players turned it over five times on offense, and two of their vets had penalties on the final drive. Allen missed multiple game-sealing throws again.

I don’t get the sense the Bills are going to fire Sean McDermott after this one with so many coach openings out there and some already filled. But I’m not sure they can sell the fans with their new stadium that running this crew back is going to result in anything different next season.

Then with Nix getting injured here, the Patriots might have the clearest path any team’s ever had to a Super Bowl, and that would be disastrous for Maye to get one so early while Allen is still seeking that elusive first Super Bowl. The Bills would have had a chance to kill that noise with another road win next week against a quarterback that’s been so shaky in these two playoff games.

Instead, Buffalo finished second in the AFC East and won one fewer playoff game than it did a year ago despite coming into 2025 as the favorite to earn the No. 1 seed because of the schedule’s advantages.

Denver and New England swooped in there and outdid them instead. If I had to pick which duo of teams wins more AFC Championship Games in the next eight years, I’d still take the Chiefs/Bills over the Broncos/Patriots even with the latter going up 1-0 this season.

But Saturday was definitely the worst playoff outcome yet for Allen and the Bills, so I understand why they are extra emotional about this one. I just wish there was more acknowledgement from fans who want to focus on a fairly clear interception that it was just one of the last mistakes in a long line from the Bills in this game.

I’m still of the belief that 13 Seconds was supposed to be the year for Allen/McDermott, and it’s just never going to happen for them as a duo with this team. As Jim Nantz awkwardly said after this one, the next time you see Josh Allen he’ll be a 30-year-old dad.

Damn, Jim. He’s also 0-7 in overtime, the first quarterback to start his career like that since Aaron Rodgers. But even Rodgers won his only Super Bowl in his third year as a starter (2010) in his second trip to the playoffs.

Allen will have to make history by being the first quarterback to reach his first Super Bowl in his 8th postseason or more. I remember when Buffalo’s greatest quarterback (Jim Kelly) was slandered for losing four straight Super Bowls. Now, Allen is starting to look like he might hold that legacy of being the greatest quarterback to never start a Super Bowl.

That’s his title going into 2026, and we’ll just have to wait and see if this loss snowballs into a New England run that they could have stopped.

Rams at Bears: A Breaking Point or a Sacrificial Lamb Served Up to Seattle Next Week?

It’s hard to say what lasting impact this game will have without seeing the trajectory of the Ben Johnson-led Bears or the outcome for the 2025 Rams this postseason. Maybe it’s the breaking point for the Rams on their way to a second Super Bowl in five years as they were pushed pretty hard in overtime here, if it should have even gone to overtime.

Maybe it’s the game that gets Caleb Williams to work more on the fundamentals and tightening up his throwing motion and hitting the routine plays better next year to go along with the spectacular plays.

Seriously, did anyone have a better highlight reel than Caleb in 2025? The touchdown throw to D.J. Moore against Cleveland that resembled The Catch but deeper, the touchdown to Moore in overtime against the Packers, the 4th-and-8 against the Packers, and then the longest 14-yard touchdown pass you’ll ever see (51.2 air yards) to tie this game up in the final minute are four plays as good as any by a quarterback this year.

But this was a strange game all around. The Bears came out hot until Rome Odunze dropped a 23-yard touchdown from Williams. Two plays later on a fourth down, his pass was intercepted by a diving Ram, and that actually netted 6 yards of field position for Chicago. Still, you’d like to see Odunze step up as WR1 and squeeze that one for a quick score to make a statement.

The Rams had a great opening drive that went 85 yards in 14 plays with Matthew Stafford in command of things. But they really struggled after that with six punts and one field goal the next seven drives as the Bears were getting home with quick pressures, and the Rams weren’t attacking their low-ranked running defense enough.

In the third quarter, Williams threw his second interception, though it could have been argued the refs missed a blow to the head on the play. The Rams had the ball at the 50 but still went three-and-out, so it didn’t have a big impact on the game as a scoreless third quarter remained 10-10 going into the fourth.

We know the fourth quarter is where the Bears have been at their best all year, but the Rams struck first with a 91-yard touchdown drive that focused on the running game again as Kyren Williams scored for the second time. They called a WR run to Puka Nacua on a big 4th-and-1 before the touchdown, shades of the Cooper Kupp play on their game-winning drive in Super Bowl 56.

Also on this go-ahead drive, there was a 12-yard pass to Davante Adams that people are trying to compare to the Brandin Cooks play in Denver. It’s a silly comparison from people who are reaching.

This is not the same play at all. Adams caught the ball in a crowd, established control, then was held up and tackled. As he was going down the ground with the catch already secured, his knee hit the ground, then he was stripped of the ball. But since he already completed the catch, the play is dead the moment his knee hit the ground. It was not a diving catch where he had to survive going to the ground like Cooks did (and did not succeed in doing). Not the same play. Move on.

To answer the touchdown, the Bears drove to the LA 2, but Williams’ fourth-down pass was batted down with 3:03 left. I might have to look into this more if the Rams keep advancing, but I’ve always said Sean McVay is incredibly conservative in the four-minute offense, so it didn’t surprise me the Bears got the ball back in a 17-10 game. I’m just surprised at how conservative the Rams were, because they chose to run Williams five times in a row. He screwed up the one by going out of bounds instead of sliding down.

But with 2:07 left and the Bears down to one timeout, McVay still called a run on third-and-10, which was silly since a pass and punt could still use up the two-minute warning, and the pass might have even given them a first down that could have come very close to wrapping this one up. Instead, Williams got the ball at the 50 with 1:50 left after a poor punt.

He didn’t necessarily make the drive look easy, but he’s been comfortable in the last 2:00 all season, and on fourth-and-4 at the 14, he ran all the way back to his 40 before throwing a pass up to the end zone where either Cole Kmet or one defensive back could get it. Kmet won the battle with ease as the DB misplayed the ball, and the Bears had their clutch touchdown with 0:18 left on an insane play by Williams.

With 18 seconds left, do you go for two? It’s the call that will probably haunt Ben Johnson all offseason, and I imagine next time he’ll go into a playoff game making sure he has the perfect 2PC call. But allegedly he didn’t go for it because he didn’t like the team’s execution in short yardage all night. Fair enough.

I see the argument both ways, going for it and playing for overtime. In the playoffs, overtime really isn’t bad at all anymore since you can about guarantee you’ll have a possession and it won’t be pressed for time either. Johnson already surprised me once this year when he didn’t go for 2 against Green Bay in Week 16 and won in overtime as we know he comes from that aggressive Dan Campbell coaching tree in Detroit.

With 18 seconds left, that’s definitely the right amount of time to justify going for the win. You could also argue that the Rams were shook by such a spectacular touchdown that going for the kill may have been the right call.

Alas, they went to overtime where the Bears won the toss, and I think they were correct to receive. Again, put the shellshocked Rams on the field first, and give Caleb four-down football with that extra margin for error, knowing exactly what he needs. Love that decision and would do it every time here.

It almost worked out too. Predictably, the Rams got conservative and called three straight runs (that’s 10 in a row going back to the fourth quarter) and went three-and-out after their 3rd-and-1 run was stuffed. Those short-yardage failures are something I’ve been highlighting for several weeks for the Rams this season, and between blowing that run and the lead, it looked like their weaknesses were going to eliminate them.

The Bears just needed a field goal for their eighth game-winning drive of the season (tie the NFL record) while the Rams had already allowed five GWD this season. But after a Williams sneak on a fourth down to convert at midfield, things went awry on a 2nd-and-8 at the LA 48. D.J. Moore had a poor effort on a route, and Williams was intercepted by Curl on a miscommunication that really isn’t on the QB or at least not entirely. Bad spot to be off like that.

Just like the Bills on Saturday, the team that just had to get a field goal to win the game threw a pick and never saw the ball again. Stafford finally got involved again with three completions for 43 yards, including a great grab by Adams and a big chain mover on third down to Puka (who else?).

Beyond blowing leads and short-yardage runs, the field goal unit is my other often cited flaw with the 2025 Rams. But rookie kicker Harrison Mevis had his team’s back with a 42-yard kick that was good enough to win this one at 20-17.

It was definitely a scare from the Bears, and who knows what happens had they gone for 2 against these Rams a la Seattle in Week 16. But the Rams escaped with the win, and now we’ll see if they can avenge that loss in Seattle. Barring a Darnold meltdown, it’s probably not going to happen if they play like this next Sunday night.

Texans at Patriots: It’s the Patriot Way

It’s actually fitting this game took place 22 years to the date of the 2003 AFC Championship Game, the game that ruined quarterback discourse for the rest of time. The game where Peyton Manning threw four interceptions and Tom Brady tried to match him bar for bar against a much inferior defense.

It’s not that Sunday’s game was expected to be a quarterback duel with two defenses on all-time runs of not allowing yards and neither gave up a touchdown in wins last week. It’s not like anyone has C.J. Stroud in MVP talks like Drake Maye, and the consensus was Stroud just needed to be a guy who doesn’t screw things up with his defense.

Well, that was always going to be harder to do without Nico Collins, who was out with a concussion. It got worse when tight end Dalton Schultz, the team’s second-leading receiver in yards (first in catches too), left the game early with an injury, putting Stroud in a familiar position of having limited weapons in the postseason after two years of injuries to Tank Dell (twice) and Stefon Diggs (2024).

But the Texans were supposed to have better depth this year. That didn’t really show up, and neither did their hands on the road as the offense looked like a “dome team” with some costly drops on late downs from Christian Kirk (early) and Cade Stover (late).

But the fact is Stroud was an absolute mess in this game, he threw four interceptions before halftime, including a pick-six I predicted, and there was a stretch where every pass looked like a prayer. Someone just hoping to get rid of the ball with no care where it went.

I’m actually shocked Davis Mills didn’t enter the game to start the second half, and maybe he should have. Mills has as many comeback wins this year as Stroud has in three seasons for Houston. I would have told him he can’t settle down, he’s not seeing the field well in the snow, and we’re going to give Mills a shot. Not that I’d expect it’d help the protection that looked outmatched, and the running game stunk (20 carries for 37 yards). But sometimes you see better protection when a backup comes in as if the linemen know they need to do better for that guy. Sometimes that backup just gets rid of the ball better or more accurately too.

Stroud was awful, and while he was better in the second half, it still didn’t make up for the damage caused early. However, a Woody Marks fumble in the red zone after he lost his shoe was another callback to the 2003 AFC-CG when Marvin Harrison fumbled in the red zone when it finally looked like the Colts had something going.

Despite the five turnovers by Houston, the only one the Patriots got any points off of was the pick-six by Marcus Jones. That’s because the Houston defense did its job by making sure Drake Maye looked pretty awful too. Maye had five sacks as Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson caused about as much havoc as they could on the road. They forced Maye to fumble four times, recovered two of them, and the other two were right there for grabs as well. Could have easily been a 5-turnover day for Maye, who also threw a Hail Mary interception to end the half that didn’t matter.

Still, that’s why it’s so much like the 2003 AFC-CG in that Maye tried his best to match Stroud turnover for turnover, but Houston didn’t capitalize enough.

But Maye looked shellshocked by the pass rush, not unlike what he did against a lesser Chargers defense a week earlier. He was just fortunate his defense was stellar as neither team had 250 yards of offense. The Patriots were also just 3-of-14 on third down.

The turnovers meant each team had 9 possessions by halftime, and the Patriots finished the day with 21 offensive points on a whopping 14 drives. Maye had three touchdown passes, but those plays said more about the receivers helping him out with a good YAC play by Pop Douglas, a very strong catch by Stefon Diggs to hang onto it in traffic in the end zone, then a brilliant one-handed catch for 32 yards by Boutte to put the Patriots up 28-16, the end of the scoring.

The unheralded play of the game happened three plays before that Boutte catch. The Texans had a chance to get the ball back in a 21-16 game in the fourth quarter with the Patriots facing a 3rd-and-8. But Derek Stingley Jr. was flagged correctly for defensive pass interference for 17 yards, and then he was beat on the touchdown too, so a rough series for him and the defense when they had a chance to set up a 4QC opportunity.

But be honest. Do you think Stroud, who is 2-10 at such games, would have capitalized? When the Texans later had the ball in a 12-point game, they punted on 4th-and-18 with 4:17 left. I know no one wants to go for it in that spot, but you at least give yourself a chance to get a penalty to convert or something. With only one timeout left, punting is such a cowardly move, but that’s what Ryans did.

Does he not realize you could end up forcing them to kick a field goal after three snaps and it’s still a 31-16 game? Two-score game. But Ryans did the cowardly punt, and the Texans had 1:45 left when they got the ball back. Just enough time for another Stroud prayer on 4th down to not be answered deep by Hutchinson on a pass broken up by linebacker Robert Spillane.

The Patriots put on a defensive masterclass against a quarterback in over his head. I’m honestly not sure Collins and Schutlz playing the whole game would have made a huge difference for Stroud, who became the first quarterback ever to throw 5 picks and fumble at least 5 times in the same postseason. He did it in just two games.

Stroud was awful, and ESPN’s Troy Aikman had some scathing commentary about how Stroud has been chasing his rookie success the last two years, and it’s just not there for whatever reason.

The Texans are going to have a difficult decision to make when it comes to extending him. This was their opportunity for a Super Bowl, or at least their first AFC Championship Game with this defense. If only Stroud didn’t screw it up.

He did though, and it led to a loss on a day where Maye didn’t show up either with his best stuff.

49ers at Seahawks: Just Keep Hitting Snooze for 3 Hours

They delayed this game’s start by 20 minutes for the conclusion of Bills-Broncos, and even then I missed the live airing of the competitive portion of the game, which was the opening kickoff return. By the time I switched over to FOX, Rashid Shaheed had taken the kickoff back 95 yards for a touchdown and the rout was on.

This isn’t the first time I watched a dramatic playoff game end at Mile High before having a hard time ever getting into the later game that involved the 49ers (Colin Kaeperick’s 176-yard rushing night against the Packers after the Ravens beat Denver in double overtime in the 2012 divisional round).

This one was like 2015 when we watched the Broncos beat the Patriots for the last round of Manning vs. Brady before the Panthers stunk up the joint in the NFC Championship Game at Carolina. That was another game I had high hopes for and was backing Arizona and Carson Palmer only to be disappointed with a dud.

That’s what this was: A massive dud. Seattle played well but the 49ers did almost no favors for themselves as the battered underdog. They gave up that kick return touchdown, then after getting good field position following a landing zone rule quirk, they still wasted it by calling the worst play they possibly could on a 4th-and-1. Seriously, option with Kyle Juszczyk going wide against a fast defense? You can’t be serious with 1 yard to go.

Right from Brock Purdy’s first dropback and incompletion you could see it was going to be a nightmare up front, but the 49ers killed themselves with three turnover on downs and two turnovers. The loss of tight end George Kittle (Achilles) unfortunately had an impact. Backup Jake Tonges fumbled on the second drive near midfield, the third big mistake of the night for the 49ers, and that led to a 42-yard touchdown drive for the Seahawks and a quick 17-0 lead.

The last time this was a game was late in the second quarter. Ricky Pearsall, who missed the last two weeks, had a shot at a 3rd-and-6 catch where if he caught it, the 49ers had a shot to get a touchdown and make this 17-10 getting near halftime. Instead, he didn’t come up with the ball and the 49ers settled for their second field goal to make it 17-6.

That’s when the Seahawks put together maybe their best offensive drive, a full 80 yards this time, as they mostly relied on the run with Sam Darnold suffering that oblique injury on Thursday. But that wasn’t a big deal with the early lead and the way the 49ers struggled in the trenches. Darnold didn’t even have 100 passing yards by the time it was 27-6 in the third quarter. It didn’t matter that the Seahawks still had some red-zone issues in finishing drives with touchdowns.

I don’t think Brock Purdy played that poorly on an impossible night. He even led the team with 37 rushing yards, a bad sign. His first turnover came in the third quarter when it was 27-6, and again it was a play involving a backup tight end (Luke Farrell), who made a pretty weak effort on the route and allowed the defender to cut him off for the pick and another short field. Soon it was 34-6 and rout was in full effect.

Jauan Jennings couldn’t come down with a great 3rd-down pass by Purdy, so the 49ers ended up turning it over on downs with a 4th-down miss, leading to yet another short field (37 yards) for a Seattle touchdown.

Down 41-6, Purdy was strip-sacked with 9:12 left before both teams played backups to run the clock out. The 49ers didn’t have a single play gain 20 yards and only scored 9 points in the last 8 quarters against Seattle in January.

But when they’re doing shit like this, is there any wonder they played so poorly?

I’ll have to eat crow on the 49ers stealing this one, but now we’ll see if the Seahawks can take care of the Rams with the Super Bowl on the line. Hell, I think the 2025 NFC Championship Game is the real Super Bowl this year.

Next week: I’m glad the little AFC appetizer game is on first, then we can make room for the showdown between the Rams and Seahawks that has little chance of living up to the Week 16 meeting. But with a record 14 lead changes in the fourth quarter this postseason, maybe we’ve got one great game left here before a Super Bowl that could be less than stellar.

NFL 2025 Divisional Round Predictions: Not-So-Elite Eight Edition

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

Every NFL team is fairly flawed in 2025. But someone has to win this thing. Someone (me) just slept on the couch for 4 hours and feels wide awake at 7 AM and is writing this very quickly instead of running up to bed to finish this sleep on the eve of the best weekend in the NFL season, the divisional round.

But my mind is finally clear on what’s going to happen. I have the vision with some themes in mind, so let’s get right to it.

NFL Divisional Round Predictions

  • Bills 23, Broncos 20
  • 49ers 20, Seahawks 16
  • Patriots 20, Texans 13
  • Rams 26, Bears 23

Second-year QBs Bo Nix and Caleb Williams are denied from an 8th game-winning drive on the season.

The Bills’ pass defense stops Nix, coming through for Allen in a way that’s going to be similar to how Peyton/Brees/Rodgers won their first rings with their defenses making timely playoff stops in crunch time.

The Bears miss a game-tying FG in the cold to deny us OT as the Rams get lucky and escape with the 3-point win.

Sam Darnold and C..J. Stroud are who we thought they were.

Darnold’s oblique injury from Thursday limits his effectiveness and the 49ers again hold the Seahawks, who struggle in 3rd down/red zone, under 18 points as Shanahan/Purdy keep the streak alive of reaching the NFC-CG.

Houston’s defense plays very well but Stroud makes some critical mistakes without Collins, and this time it’s the Patriots who score a defensive TD and win with 13 offensive points (ring a bell?).

That’d set up for just the third time ever and second in a non-strike year a Conference Championship Game round that’s two division rematches: 49ers vs. Rams, Patriots vs. Bills.

This Week’s Articles

2025 NFC Divisional Round Preview: The Greatness of the NFC West on Full Display

2025 AFC Divisional Round Preview: Is This Finally the Year for Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills?

Scott’s Seven NFL Picks: 2025 Divisional Round

Not sure why these won’t embed this week but there’s the AFC and NFC previews + 7 picks including parlays on underdogs, interception throwers, and TD scorers.

2025 NFL Stat Oddity: Week 17

~ Scott ~ 1 Comment

That was a very long Week 17 slate in the NFL that started with Josh Johnson on Christmas afternoon and ended with a classic shootout between the Bears and 49ers. It sets up three division title games in Week 18 in prime time and little of substance on Sunday afternoon.

We had nine games with a comeback opportunity, so we still haven’t had a week with 10 chances since Week 4. That has me a little worried about Atlanta’s ability to keep it close with the Rams on Monday night, but we’ll see as I still think that one has upset potential.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Bears at 49ers: Game of the Day

This 42-38 game summed up in one graphic:

The crazy part is the Bears didn’t have their best wideout in Rome Odunze, and D.J. Moore wasn’t 100%, and the two rookies (Luther Burden and Colston Loveland) dominated with 232 yards and 2 TDs). The 49ers didn’t have George Kittle, Ricky Pearsall wasn’t 100%, and they still lit it up too with Brock Purdy accounting for 5 total touchdowns (10 in prime time since Monday night) and 303 passing yards.

Not a bad shootout for a game that started with a pick-six. But I think it’s a game where the 49ers showed they could run the ball very well against a bad run defense as CMC had 140 rushing yards. Purdy played excellent, and it’s past time we act like he always needs George Kittle, Brandon Aiyuk, and Deebo Samuel to do this, because none of those three were available to him on Sunday night. Left tackle Trent Williams also left on the opening drive.

But I also think you have to give Caleb Williams and the Bears credit for hanging in there blow for blow when the 49ers are on a heater like this. It came down to the final snap, and the Bears were that close to extending their record to a seventh win this season when trailing in the final 2:00.

If we somehow got this as a playoff rematch, I think that’d be great. But definitely a strong night for the offensive minds of Ben Johnson and Kyle Shanahan. Now, the 49ers just have to beat Seattle (easier said than done) on Saturday night and they’ll be the No. 1 seed again.

My only warning would be that you see what it might look like without Nick Bosa and Fred Warner, though there is some hope Warner could return during the playoffs. But if Purdy is playing like this, maybe this can finally be San Francisco’s year.

Eagles at Bills: Familiar Trends

Throw in a lot of cold rain to make it even easier on these two strong pass defenses, and Sunday’s 13-12 final more or less played up to the season trends for the Eagles and Bills:

  • The Eagles started strong, taking a 13-0 lead into the locker room with Dallas Goedert adding another easy 1-yard touchdown to his season total.
  • Jalen Hurts then promptly went 0-for-7 passing in the second half with DeVonta Smith only coming close on a overturned catch one time.
  • Saquon Barkley was held to 68 yards on 19 carries, so his disappointing season continued more than the horrid Buffalo run defense did, but it helped that the Eagles weren’t completing passes.
  • Josh Allen took 5 sacks, including another contender for the worst sack of the year that knocked him out of field goal range as the Bills were shut out for 54 minutes.
  • James Cook was held to 77 total yards, and the Bills are now 0-4 this season when Cook is under 100 yards from scrimmage, averaging 14.8 points per game in those games.

But Philadelphia’s classic second-half no show on offense meant the defense had to hold up, and it almost broke. The Bills finally broke through with some big plays to Brandin Cooks and others (another hook-and-lateral) to get down the field twice, and despite the bad foot, Allen snuck in two touchdown runs in the final 5:11, including a 4th-and-goal from the 1 run with 0:08 left.

The Bills made the controversial decision to go for 2 and the win, and Allen completely whiffed on the throw to an open Shakir in the end zone. Game over; the Patriots win the AFC East. It’s no wonder they like to run the ball down there. That should have been an easy conversion, but the Bills have been missing these 2PC plays all season.

However, I have to defend the decision to go for the win instead of playing for overtime. I think it was absolutely the right call for Sunday’s circumstances:

  • The weather was horrible, which can make an extra point even harder, and it’s not like Buffalo’s kicker has been reliable on those, getting one blocked on the first touchdown. The Eagles have good blockers too.
  • Allen’s foot wasn’t 100% and that limits his effectiveness, so you don’t want to keep putting stress on that for more snaps in overtime.
  • The Bills realistically have to admit the Patriots are likely winning the AFC East with only a home game against Miami left, so it’s not like the division title or a No. 1 seed is really on the line here.

If this game was earlier in the season when you have less clarity about the playoff standings, I think you take them to overtime as your defense was playing outstanding and you’re at home. If the weather was better, I think you play on into overtime. If Allen was 100% healthy in a normal game, I think you go to overtime, which is a place he’s never actually won a game in the NFL yet.

But those were not the circumstances on Sunday in Week 17, so I don’t have an issue with the Bills doing what they did. I just have an issue with Allen badly missing the throw as they finally had a good play dialed up for one of those 2PCs.

The Eagles (11-5) still have an outside shot of the No. 2 seed over Chicago. The Bills (11-5) drop from No. 5 to No. 7, and with the Jets only left on the schedule, I think they’ll go to 12-5, the Texans beat the Colts to get to 12-5 and the No. 5 seed by virtue of head-to-head win, and the Chargers lose at Denver to fall to No. 7 seed at 11-6.

I had Buffalo lined up for No. 5 for a while, but seeing as how that now could be Derrick Henry and the Ravens in Baltimore, I’m not sure they want any part of that matchup in two weeks, so it’s possible that bad throw was strategic by Allen.

Then again, going to No. 6 and probably having to go to Jacksonville, a team playing as well as anyone, may not be a great start either for this team. But that’s where I see things trending for Buffalo.

Steelers at Browns: The Tomlin Special (The Last One?)

Once the Ravens beat the Packers on Saturday night, you could see the “Tomlin Special” coming from a mile away.

The Steelers were going to lose to a 3-12 Cleveland team to set up a winner-take-all game on SNF against the Ravens for the AFC North. And they’ll have to do it without D.K. Metcalf (suspended) and Darnell Washington (broke his arm on Sunday). Maybe without Calvin Austin too, or the three players who had 67% of Rodgers’ passing yards in Baltimore earlier this season.

I knew the Ravens being +800 value the other day to win the AFC North was too good to pass up. That’s not to say it’s a sure thing, because the Ravens have a pretty bad history of playing well in Pittsburgh, but the Steelers played Sunday with no real energy or care to want to wrap things up with a great opportunity against a bad team.

Instead, they gave up 10 early points to Shedeur Sanders before picking him off twice later. But even with nine possessions in a 4-to-7 point game the rest of the way, the Steelers never found the end zone even once. They pissed away drives with penalties, a pathetic 4th-and-1 deep pass to Scotty Miller, a Rodgers slide short of the sticks on third down, a bad sack to make a field goal too long, and forcing the ball repeatedly to washed-up wide receivers against a No. 1 pass defense with good corners playing man coverage.

And yes, the Steelers absolutely were too focused on Myles Garrett breaking the sack record. Garrett himself admitted it, and while you might expect him to say that given he was shutout by a makeshift offensive line, anyone who says this didn’t have a big negative impact on the game for Pittsburgh didn’t watch the game.

You could see it in the way they called plays at times, like not calling a single pass in a 13-9 game with 7:03 left and the ball at midfield. Three-and-out on runs. You could see it in the way Rodgers was letting go of the ball extra fast (usually well under 2.6 seconds), sometimes just throwing the ball away before he even dares left Garrett get a whiff of him.

That hampered the offense all day, and it’s a silly thing to worry about when Garrett gets to play Joe Burrow next week. The record is going to fall, but Rodgers sure looked like he’d be damned to be Brett Favre and get caught in a highlight reel forever for going down on the record-breaking sack.

Instead, he reverted to his factory settings by forcing outside throws to wide receivers instead of using the only players that are actually any good in this offense, the tight ends and running backs. Rodgers was 8-of-21 for 60 yards on passes to MVS, Scotty Miller, and Adam Thielen. Meanwhile, Pat Freiermuth had the big plays on the final drive, but he only finished with 63 yards on 3-of-5 passing.

Feed him more, except Rodgers just doesn’t like tight ends and will rather throw to washed-up wideouts he has no real chemistry with against maybe the worst defense to try that against this year.

Just buffoonery from start to finish as the Steelers finished with 6 points on 11 drives. Mike Tomlin is now 0-7 at Cleveland without Ben Roethlisberger, who was 12-2-1 at Cleveland.

I had a bad feeling the Metcalf suspension would lead to something like this, but I really didn’t think Rodgers would go with low-risk passes to MVS in the end zone (against Denzel Ward) on three straight passes with the game on the line. Metcalf would have been a target there. Freiermuth or Jonnu Smith should have been a target there. MVS stinks.

But Rodgers’ loyalty to “his guys” at wideout came back to bite them. A bad gameplan hurt them. Worrying too much about Garrett, who didn’t even generate that much pressure, hurt them.

Frankly, this team doesn’t deserve the postseason. They got their ninth win last week, and at this rate, I’ll be surprised if they get another this season.

Jaguars at Colts: Farewell Philip (Again?)

Hats off to the Jaguars for getting to 12-4 with a sweep of the Colts this month. This was a good back-and-forth game with Trevor Lawrence showing off his legs on two touchdown runs, and the pass defense held up against Philip Rivers for the most part (147 yards, 1 touchdown).

Rivers’ lone pick came in the fourth quarter of a tied game (had to play that tune one more time), and that actually led to Jacksonville’s game-winning field goal drive, which consisted of losing 3 yards after a stuffed Travis Etienne run and two incompletions by Lawrence. Yikes.

Rivers got the ball back in a 23-17 game with 18 seconds left, but instead of seeing him throw one last pick in a one-score game to perhaps end his career for good, a delay of game penalty on the defense moved the ball to the Jacksonville 48. Riley Leonard came off the bench with the stronger, younger arm to throw the Hail Mary, and that too was intercepted to end the game.

Rivers has no regrets about the comeback attempt even though the Colts were eliminated from the playoffs on Saturday with Houston’s win. He’ll go down as an all-time competitor and one of the only people crazy enough to try this after five years away from the game.

If this is the end of the road, he’ll now finish 36-84 (.300) at game-winning drive opportunities and 30-79 (.275) at comeback opportunities down one score.

Seahawks at Panthers: NFC South Shame Pt. 1

It’s not like I expected the Panthers to beat the Seahawks, but damn, have some pride at home. The Panthers were 5-1 ATS as a home underdog this year, but the best they could do in this one was make it 17-10 in the fourth quarter after a Bryce Young touchdown run.

It’s a good thing he had that run because he finished with 54 passing yards on 24 attempts, or 40 yards on 26 plays if you add his sacks.

But a huge facemask penalty got the Seahawks out of a 3rd-and-21 situation, and they punched in another score to go up 20-10. Young took consecutive sacks before throwing a 5-yard pass on 4th-and-17, leading to a 25-yard touchdown drive by the Seahawks to ice it at 27-10.

All three of Seattle’s touchdown drives started inside the Carolina 30 in the second half, taking advantage of Carolina’s mistakes on offense. This game was winnable despite the final score, but it really looks like no one wants to take the NFC South this year.

Their division title game should end in a tie, which would still give it to the Panthers.

Buccaneers at Dolphins: NFC South Shame Pt. 2

This Tampa Bay collapse needs studied. The Dolphins came in ranked No. 26 against the run and the Bucs just couldn’t get anything going on the ground. It doesn’t help when Tristan Wirfs was inactive at tackle. But Baker Mayfield probably has the best 4-WR group in the NFL, and yet they were stuck on 10 points with him throwing two picks deep into this one before a last-minute Mike Evans touchdown led to a failed onside kick in a 20-17 loss.

Quinn Ewers had a couple of touchdown passes to lesser-known Miami targets for the rookie’s first win. The running game was solid. Miami will likely finish 7-10, which sounds like the typical Miami season in the 21st century.

Giants at Raiders: The Toilet Bowl

Both teams had lost nine in a row, but the Raiders would have been dumb to win this game and hand the Giants the No. 1 pick in the draft. The Raiders definitely need it more as they have a quarterback need the Giants don’t with Jaxson Dart rushing for two more scores in this 34-10 rout as Geno Smith took another beating behind his line.

The No. 1 pick isn’t locked up for the Raiders yet, and the Chiefs would probably be wise to not let them secure it next week either. Then again, it’s not like there looks to be a real QB prize in the 2026 draft.

Cardinals at Bengals: Ho-Hum

Go figure, it took Jacoby Brissett deep into garbage time (trailed by 30 points at the two-minute warning) to finally break 200 yards passing and throw his second touchdown of the day against the Bengals in a 37-14 loss that was never really competitive.

Just glad to say I was right that Ja’Marr Chase and Trey McBride finding the end zone were the only picks you needed from this otherwise fruitless endeavor between losing teams.

Patriots at Jets: Seriously, Just End the Season

The Patriots scored six straight touchdowns to start their 42-10 rout of the Jets, another tip in the cap for offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels, who has been behind some of those all-time drubbings in NFL history.

Speaking of history, the 2025 Jets have done it. In 16 games, they’ve let quarterbacks throw 32 touchdowns and 0 interceptions after a 5-piece from Drake Maye on Sunday. That’s two weeks after Trevor Lawrence had six total touchdowns on this defense.

I know Aaron Glenn is going to get excuses that they traded two of his best defenders, but this shit was rotten from Week 1 and has only gotten worse. I wouldn’t criticize the Jets if they made him a one-and-done coach, but I doubt that will happen no matter how brutal this 3-win season has gone.

Saints at Titans: Ending 2025 on a High Note

I know people don’t care about these teams this season, but I think it was a very good showing for both Tyler Shough and Cam Ward, and a game that should have their fans excited about what can happen in 2026 with more seasoning from Shough and better coaching/talent around Ward.

But Shough got the best of this matchup as he added another 300-yard passing game and comeback win to his resume. In such a down year for rookies, I’m very serious about voting him for OROY. Just finish strong next week.

Texans at Chargers: Houston Outlasts Them

Going back to Saturday quickly, I was most excited about this game and I think it delivered a playoff atmosphere with a tough, physical grind after some early explosives from Houston’s offense made it 14-0 in the blink of an eye.

But I thought Justin Herbert’s teammates let him down again with the tipped pick in the red zone, and Dicker the Kicker turned into Nate Kaeding in a big game. This guy is supposed to be perfect from inside 40 yards, yet he missed one from 40 and an extra point, costing the Chargers 4 points in a game they lost by, yep, 4 points. And don’t act like I haven’t forgotten about the missed field goal in the Jacksonville playoff loss. I see what this kicker is up to. Can’t trust him.

But the Texans held on for the second week in a row by getting a huge defensive penalty to help them run out the clock. I’m not sure Chargers fans can complain much about that illegal contact that wiped out a third-down sack of Stroud. The Chargers also had two defensive penalties wipe out huge sacks on Herbert on their previous drive to score a touchdown.

This game is a pretty good sign that the Texans are more dangerous than the Chargers in the playoffs because of their defense and their offensive line doesn’t have turnstiles at offensive tackle. But I also think it helped  expose that the Houston offense is still likely to come up short before a Super Bowl appearance to keep this team out of the big game.

Crazy stat: Houston has never been a wild card team. All eight playoff appearances for the Texans have come as the AFC South winner, so we’ll see how that shakes out if Jacksonville wraps this division up on Sunday.

Ravens at Packers: King Henry Reigns Supreme

For a game with two backup quarterbacks, there were a lot of points and quality drive engineering between the Packers and Ravens on Saturday night. While the Ravens leaned on Derrick Henry, who dominated with 216 yards and 4 touchdowns, it was the Packers who surprisingly couldn’t run at all and leaned on Malik Willis to throw for 288 yards and rush for 60 yards and 2 touchdowns. Sadly, a late injury knocked him out and Clayton Tune was intercepted on a tipped ball.

But I think it’s clear that Matt LaFleur is going to help Willis get paid a ton of money from a team to be their starter in 2026 or 2027, a miraculous coaching job with a player who couldn’t throw for 100 yards in any of his starts as a rookie on the 2022 Titans. Maybe even his brother Mike LaFleur, the Rams offensive coordinator, will be hired by a team to make Willis work out as well as his brother has.

Good luck with that, but it was an impressive game from him on Saturday night. They didn’t lose this game because Jordan Love (concussion) was out. They lost because their defense, missing Micah Parsons, was pathetic, a familiar tune in Green Bay in big games.

The Packers are now 0-3 this year when they don’t punt in a game, which has never been done before in a season. The rest of the NFL is 10-0 this year. Green Bay is just the 10th team since 1950 to lose a game by at least 17 points without punting.

Next week: I get to look back at how bad my predictions were for this crazy season. We get the sacrificial lamb game first on Saturday to determine the No. 4 seed in the NFC. We get the No. 1 seed game at night, then it’s a pretty bland Sunday afternoon slate leading up to Ravens vs. Steelers for the AFC North.

2025 NFL Stat Oddity: Week 16

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

I cannot recall an NFL season that felt this wide open as it does in 2025. Big leads don’t feel safe no matter who you’re playing, and even for the teams looking at the wild card paths to the Super Bowl, there’s no juggernaut or historic team out there that I’ll say they can’t beat on the road in January.

That last part is the important one. In the past years I’ve covered, you always had some team with Brady, Manning, or Mahomes that you just wouldn’t expect to ever lose to a low seed like the 2016 Texans (Brock Osweiler year), 2020 Browns (no defense), or when the 2023 Steelers snuck in with Mason Rudolph.

But not this year.

  • Not when you can watch the Seahawks’ version of Sam Darnold overcome his kryptonite (Rams) with a 16-point comeback win on Thursday night in what I called the Game of the Year this weekend. He has a great defense backing him up.
  • Not when the Bears can wipe out a 10-point deficit in the last 5:00 to beat Green Bay in overtime, and we’ve already seen them run over the Eagles in Philly.
  • Not when the Eagles are playing sound defense, the running game is starting to pick things up, and you can at least argue they’ve been to the Super Bowl twice since 2022 and big-game experience matters.
  • Not when the Panthers have already upset the Packers, Rams, Buccaneers, etc. and should have won in Philadelphia last year (Xavier Legette drop) as Bryce Young turns into Steve Young in big moments.
  • Not when the Rams should probably be 15-0 if not for blowing every loss in inexplicable fashion.
  • Not when the 49ers have a path to the No. 1 seed that includes sweeping Darnold in Week 18 (a la how Detroit did last year) and have the Super Bowl at home this year.
  • Not when the Packers – okay, this one is probably a stretch without Micah Parsons and Tucker Kraft. But if Jordan Love can return on Saturday…

But we’re used to seeing the NFC offer new contenders. What about the AFC that’s been dominated by quarterback stability? Well, that’s simply not the case this year as Sunday proved again:

  • The Broncos (12-3) saw their 11-game winning streak snapped in impressive fashion by Jacksonville, the first bad game Denver’s played all year. Still in line for the No. 1 seed though.
  • The Patriots (12-3) are right on Denver’s heels and that big comeback win in Baltimore should do wonders for Drake Maye’s confidence and development in games like this.
  • The Jaguars (11-4) have been red hot since the bye week, they can score 25+ every week, and they get turnovers on defense. What’s really stopping Trevor Lawrence from going on an Eli/Flacco/Foles type of run?
  • The Steelers (9-6) always flop in the postseason, but I think this season has been different in several areas we’ll get into the next few weeks. If they do have to play the Bills in the wild card and can find a way past that one, they have dark horse potential with Aaron Rodgers playing his best ball at the right moment.
  • The Chargers (11-4) still have a shot to win the AFC West by beating Houston and Denver, and if they can do that behind Justin Herbert and Jim Harbaugh, who can’t they beat in this AFC?
  • The Bills (11-4) may be terrible at stopping the run, but they stop the pass, they can run the ball too, they put up points, and they have big-game experience and have done well against basically every team but the Chiefs (not in the picture this year) over the years.
  • The Texans (10-5) struggling with the Raiders may give you pause, but they have the best defense in the NFL this year and could be a problem for anyone they face with a playoff win in each of the last two seasons.

There are usually several playoff teams you can just write off for having a pathetic defense or rookie/backup quarterback. But that’s not going to be the case this year, and I don’t think there’s any “chalk” matchup here. I could be sold on 49ers vs. Texans in Super Bowl 60 just as easily I could be told Eagles vs. Bills in Week 17 is a Super Bowl preview, or even Patriots vs. Rams for the third time this century

This must be that “parity” people speak of but never really get like this. I’m not sure if this will lead to me doing more research than usual in January, always my busiest month of the year, or if I’ll be inclined to do less and just sit back and let this madness unfold since so many of these teams don’t have a track record to rely on.

All I know is just about every time someone tries to anoint a team as the one to beat this year, they usually show you with the quickness that they are very beatable. Even if they’re up double digits late in the game.

But Week 16 was a memorable one with all three of the games with late lead changes coming in the prime-time slots. Overall, we had 9 games with a comeback opportunity, and we’ll see if Colts-49ers can give us 10 in a week for the first time since Week 4.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Patriots at Ravens: Sunday’s Best

It was many weeks ago when I called my shot that Drake Maye would have his first 300-yard passing game in the NFL against Baltimore in Week 16. Then as the game was approaching this week, I had the Drake Maye MVP Parlay that hit with Stafford’s loss against Seattle starting it on Thursday, and I wrote how the Ravens have a history of letting young passers set career highs in passing yards against them recently.

Then right before the game, I made my pick:

This wasn’t an endorsement of Maye as much as it was I know how John Harbaugh’s Ravens play, and I know you can’t trust them in games like this, especially in 2025. Sure enough, you could see early on that Maye had big plays coming against this secondary. He just had to control his turnovers as he turned it over twice in scoring range early on.

But the Ravens lost Lamar Jackson in the first half to a back injury, putting Tyler Huntley under the microscope for the rest of the night in an important game. He did help lead two touchdown drives to give the Ravens a 24-13 lead with 12:50 left, but we’ve seen this movie before with Baltimore.

Maye answered with a great 37-yard touchdown pass to Kyle Williams to get over 300 yards, then the Ravens ignored using Derrick Henry on the ensuing drive and punted. Maye had a deep ball that should have been caught by Boutte, but he dropped it on the ground after he was interfered with on the play, and I can’t believe there wasn’t a flag there. Go figure, I lost a good parlay on this game because he didn’t get yards there.

That was a first-down play that led to some critical snaps later. On third down, Maye’s pass was nearly intercepted by Nate Wiggins, but then Maye threaded the needle on 4th-and-2 to Stefon Diggs for a big 21-yard completion. The defense doesn’t make you pay on a pick and you come back and finish the game-winning drive. That sounds very Brady-esque by Maye.

Two plays later, Rhamondre Stevenson finished the drive with a 21-yard touchdown run with 2:07 left. Maye’s defense needed to complete the comeback, and it did its job by forcing Zay Flowers to fumble two plays into the ensuing drive. Maye had a 16-yard keeper run to ice his first 4QC/GWD in the NFL, an 11-point comeback in the fourth, and that career-high line of 380 passing yards. That’s a memorable first comeback.

At 12-3, the Patriots can still think about 14-3 and a potential No. 1 seed if Denver loses again. I’m not convinced this game should make Maye the MVP since Baltimore just isn’t Baltimore anymore, but it keeps him firmly in the running with Stafford, who can still slip up in Atlanta next Monday night.

But this win should give Maye and the Patriots a lot of confidence that they can win this type of game where he had 57 of the team’s 70 action plays. That’s MVP quarterback-y stuff.

Steelers at Lions: It’s All Over Now, Baby Blue

This game finished 29-24, hitting the over (52.5), but that’s a miracle when you consider how each half started.

The Steelers took a 3-0 lead after the first quarter, scoring no more than 7 points in the opening quarter for the 67th game in a row including playoffs, the longest streak since WWII. They were able to hold the Lions to no points after facing a 1st-and-goal at the 4 by stopping a Jared Goff pass on 4th-and-3 from the 3, a sign of things to come.

But instead of Detroit taking a 10-3 lead into halftime, Kenneth Gainwell made a Catch of the Year candidate when he was laying down and caught a deep pass, getting up untouched and racing to the end zone to complete a 45-yard game-tying touchdown with 0:02 left in the half.

The Steelers ended up winning the third quarter by a 2-0 score, sacking Goff in the end zone for a safety after Darnell Washington had fumbled in the red zone. Then Jaylen Warren was able to rip off two 45-yard touchdown runs in the fourth quarter, the second giving the Steelers a 29-17 lead with 6:41 left.

But the Lions quickly got one touchdown, and similar to the Ireland game where the Steelers nearly blew a 17-point lead in quick fashion, they almost coughed this one up with poor clock management in the four-minute offense. They settled for a 37-yard field goal with 2:09 left, which should have been automatic for Chris Boswell, but he missed it off the right upright. Inexcusable for one of the game’s best.

Now 29-24, it sure looked like the Steelers were going to blow this one by giving up a late touchdown and they didn’t even have any timeouts left to answer. There was a game-saving DPI penalty on 4th-and-2 to keep the game alive, and sure enough, Goff had the Lions on a 1st-and-goal at the 1 with 25 seconds left.

But that’s when it got interesting and heavy on the officials. Amon-Ra St. Brown caught a 1-yard touchdown, but it was negated for a pick play called on Isaac TeSlaa. It looked like the right call as he was blocking more than 1 yard past the line, but it’s admittedly not something that always gets called. That was huge cause it backed the Lions up to their 11 with little time left, then a false start had them at the 16.

After some Goff incompletions, it came down to 4th-and-goal from the 9. A short pass to St. Brown was tackled quickly, but he was allowed to lateral the ball back to Goff, who dove into the end zone for what Lions fans thought was a walk-off touchdown in a 30-29 final.

After some record-long discussions about the play, it was determined to be offensive pass interference on Brown for pushing off on Jalen Ramsey, and that ends the game there. No replay of the down for an offensive penalty, and Goff’s touchdown dive simply doesn’t count. Game over, and when the ref said game over, I still wasn’t 100% sure what the final score was supposed to be.

But it looks like they got the calls right, and the Steelers prevailed 29-24, clinching their record 22nd-straight season with a non-losing record, moving past the 1965-85 Cowboys for good. They also move a step closer to winning the AFC North for the first time since 2020.

Meanwhile, Detroit has gone from 15-2 to 8-7 this year and needs to win out while the Packers need to lose out just for the Lions to return as a No. 7 seed. Crazy year for an offense that came into this one leading the league in scoring and having the fewest turnovers (8) of any offense despite losing coordinator Ben Johnson to the No. 1 Bears in the NFC North.

But even in this game, you could see some cracks in Dan Campbell’s offense as they’re missing Sam LaPorta, a tight end who could have been their target on those failed drives early and late in the game. They also just don’t have the line anymore to dominate on the ground. The running backs had 11 carries for 16 yards, which is crazy work against a Pittsburgh run defense that has allowed over 200 rushing yards to the Ravens and Bills recently. Did the return of rookie Derrick Harmon cause that big of a shift in run defense success? That’s hard to say.

This is also why these Steelers might actually be a little different this year with Aaron Rodgers playing his best ball right now, and the defense has rose to the occasion a few times in a game like this and when they turned the Colts (6) and Patriots (5) over 11 times combined in upset wins.

It doesn’t feel like Tomlin is ever leaving Pittsburgh until he wants to leave, but the Steelers have won 3-0 since “Fire Tomlin!” chants rained down at home against Buffalo. That could end up being the 5-4 rematch on wild card weekend too with Tomlin getting a chance to redeem himself and win his first playoff game since the 2016 season.

Sure, beating Buffalo in the wild card sounds crazy, but when has this 2025 NFL season ever made sense?

Granted, a long suspension for D.K. Metcalf after he punched at a fan in the crowd could be a huge setback here as Rodgers’ only reliable wideout. I’m not sure what the precedent is there, but I could see a 1-game suspension for that. I don’t think it should be more since he didn’t do more than the one punch/slap attempt. He didn’t go full Ron Artest in Detroit (Malice at the Palace). But that’ll be a story to keep an eye on this week as the Steelers need Metcalf for the playoff push.

Buccaneers at Panthers: Does Todd Bowles Survive This?

Man, if not for the Cardinals, the Buccaneers would be winless since Week 9’s bye week. That’s still pretty bad for a team that was 5-1 and has only gotten healthier at receiver and running back. But Baker Mayfield needed a big 40-yard pass to Emeka Egbuka just to break 100 passing yards late in the fourth quarter.

Then down 23-20 late, he was not on the same page with Mike Evans, who cut in while Baker threw the out, and it ended up as a game-ending interception that gives the Panthers the NFC South lead with two weeks to go. The Bucs are just 7-8 now.

I’m just waiting for something big to come out of this decline like finding out Mayfield tore something against the 49ers and tried to play injured, or something indecent has happened with the coaching staff and caused a rift between Todd Bowles and the coordinator. Just something to explain how this team can keep failing to execute after they were money early in the season under pressure.

As for Carolina, it’s a 12th game-winning drive for Bryce Young and his sixth this season. He didn’t have a huge game, but neither did his running game, and he had a timely 34-yard completion on the game-winning field goal drive.

The only positive for Tampa Bay is it still has the Week 18 rematch at home. That’s probably why the Bucs still have -170 odds to win the NFC South. But I don’t know how you can trust a team that’s been so poor for two months now.

Jaguars at Broncos: Mile High Can’t Touch Duuuuuval

I didn’t see a ton of this game on Sunday. But while I liked the Jaguars (+3.5) to cover, I still thought it’d be a very tight game won by Denver. Instead, it’s the first bad game the Broncos have played all year as their 11-game win streak started after losing on last-second field goals to the Colts and Chargers in September.

The Broncos sacked Trevor Lawrence five times, but once again he excelled with the receivers that have become his main guys under Liam Coen like Parker Washington and Jakobi Meyers. Brian Thomas Jr. only had 18 yards in this game, but that development has been the surprise of the season for the Jaguars, who are now 11-4.

Bo Nix threw for 352 yards, but he lost a fumble late in the third quarter when it was 31-17, and he threw a bad pick on 4th-and-2 when it was 34-20 in the fourth quarter. I saw people clowning Sean Payton, who I am openly not a big fan of over the years, for kicking the 21-yard field goal on 4th-and-3 on the previous drive when it was 34-17.

I think Payton made the right call as I believe you need to keep extending the game and not put your players in “convert this or the game is already over” situations. Keep the pressure on the other team instead, and the Broncos really got what they wanted. They made it a 14-point game, you always  needed the field goal anyway at some point down 17, and now you get the quick three-and-out and the ball back in a 34-20 game with 9:28 left.

But that’s when the fourth-down pick happened, and from there it was basically over even though Denver got it back with 4:14 and the same score. Just no fourth-quarter magic this week as Jacksonville played very well.

If you can win at Denver, you might be able to win anywhere in this season’s AFC. A certain 19-point lead against a certain long-necked backup quarterback is the only thing stopping the Jaguars from having an 8-game winning streak since the bye.

But the Denver streak is over and the AFC West is in jeopardy, let alone that No. 1 seed they seemed to be cruising to.

Bills at Browns: Want to See the Worst Sacks of the Season?

The highly ranked pass defenses of the Browns and Bills did not disappoint in this game. While both defenses would love to face a pass instead of a run, it was compounded by how well the Bills did on the ground early with James Cook ripping off a 44-yard touchdown run on the opening drive.

But with barely over a minute left in the half, Josh Allen took the worst sack of his career that also put his team’s season in jeopardy after he injured his ankle by running backwards from his own 23 to take a 22-yard sack back at his 1 to almost give up a safety. It looked so bad that it almost looked like Garrett paid Allen to do that to set him up for an easy sack, and the scorers agreed as they somehow gave Garrett half a sack on the play.

Garrett didn’t get a full sack, but the Bills only managed a 2-yard field goal drive in the whole second half. Allen was off on some throws, and sometimes his tight ends didn’t complete the catches as the passing game just never got it going.

Shedeur Sanders had some great scrambles in the game, but he also fell victim to bad, deep sacks with the game on the line. He lost 13 yards on a 4th-and-2 sack in a 23-20 game in the fourth quarter. Then after getting the ball back, he took another sack, then got called for intentional grounding to avoid another that brought up 3rd-and-32. After a deep incompletion, Sanders was stuck facing 4th-and-32 from his own 1 with 1:49 left.

There’s no man’s land, and then there’s whatever the fvck that was. With two timeouts left, you almost want to go for it. Three timeouts would make it easier to justify the punt. But Sanders had almost no room to operate in the end zone, and needing 32 yards, you really risk giving up a safety and possession there. You’re almost certain to fail barring a cheap foul, so punting is probably the best thing you could do in that impossible spot.

Allen finally put the game away with an 8-yard pass and QB sneak on 3rd-and-1. But that was a tough win for the Bills, who were a big 10.5-point road favorite. It continues the trend where Allen just doesn’t put up many yards (or points or both) on the road this year, and given the Patriots are close to winning the AFC East, it could be all road games for him to get to the Super Bowl. Not ideal.

But the Bills play great defense in the big spots and they now have seven defensive saves (stops when leading by one score in the fourth quarter) and no blown leads in 2025. Will be interesting to see how they fare against the Eagles next week, a team with more experience and better quarterback play (usually) than the Browns have.

Bengals at Dolphins: Free of Tua, Not Free of a Bad Defense

I give Mike McDaniel and Miami credit for doing the right thing, maybe the overdue thing, and benching Tua Tagovailoa, effectively ending his reign (of terror) with the Dolphins. Quinn Ewers did some solid things early with the running game doing great against a poor Cincinnati defense, but similar to last week in Pittsburgh, the game got completely away from the Dolphins in the third quarter.

Two turnovers and a fourth-down stop set up three short fields for touchdowns by Joe Burrow and the Bengals, who won 45-21. I’m sure that had Tua smirking from the bench, but this team has a better shot of dragging itself out of purgatory by moving on from him. Ewers probably won’t be the long-term answer, but at least they get a look at him in these final games.

Raiders at Texans: Hope for Ashton Jeanty

It didn’t take long for the Houston defense to make its presence felt by intercepting a poor throw from Geno Smith for a pick-six. But Houston’s offense was sputtering, and Ashton Jeanty showed that not even the league’s best defense can stop him from scoring touchdowns of 60 and 51 yards on a pass and a big run late in the fourth quarter.

That had the Texans pressing at home as a 14.5-point favorite to a terrible team that’s been shutout 31-0 twice this year. But I thought Pete Carroll’s team blew it in two spots here:

  • Down 16-14 in the fourth quarter, why are you punting on 4th-and-3 at the Houston 46? Your season is long over. Go for it. You have nothing to lose. The Texans ended up driving 88 yards for a long touchdown drive to make it a 23-14 game. Again, if the worst-case scenario (giving up a TD) happens, you at least would rather it happens quicker on a shorter field than for a long drive like that.
  • Then down 23-21, the Raiders had a great shot to force a 3-and-out and get the ball back right away for a game-winning field goal march, but the defense was penalized for pass interference on 3rd-and-20 from the Houston 7. Brutal. Stroud converted a few more first downs and ran out the final 5:19 to win 23-21.

So, I think this scare throws some cold water on the Houston run to the playoffs. But they are going to be a tough out for anyone they play. And they won’t have to face Jeanty in January. Maybe never if the Raiders don’t get their shit together.

Vikings at Giants: Rough Day at the Office

I knew I liked the under on Jaxson Dart’s passing props against a complex defense like Minnesota, but God damn. Dart finished the game and still finished just 7-of-13 passing for 33 yards with 5 sacks, a deflected pick, and 2 runs for 7 yards. For some reason, it took 17 snaps from scrimmage for the Giants before Dart threw an actual pass in this game.

J.J. McCarthy had a rough afternoon too that wasn’t always his fault as he had a tipped pick. He also got away with a pick-six after Abdul Carter lined up offsides. D’oh.

But McCarthy left another game injured, and Max Brosmer ended up converting a 3rd-and-17 with a great catch by Justin Jefferson to lead to a game-winning field goal in a 16-13 final. Dart had his chance to answer but was sacked on fourth down at midfield.

So, Brosmer has a game-winning drive in the NFL before Dart…

Falcons at Cardinals: More Desert Doom

Props to the Atlanta defense for doing probably the best job of anyone against Jacoby Brissett this year. They held him to 203 yards, had a game-sealing interception, only one touchdown pass, and they held Trey McBride to 27 yards in the 26-19 win.

Not even Atlanta’s historic brand of choking could help Brissett complete the late 10-point comeback. His 7-27 (.206) record at game-winning drive opportunities is the worst among active starters.

Chiefs at Titans: Going Out Sad

People will say the Chiefs (6-9) just tanked after getting eliminated from the playoffs last week, and maybe there’s some truth to that. But aside from adding Rashee Rice and Tyquan Thornton to this week’s injury report, it’s largely the same roster they’ve been struggling with the last few weeks minus Patrick Mahomes at quarterback.

In a 26-9 loss to Tennessee, one of the worst teams this year, the Chiefs averaged just 14.4 yards per drive and scored 9 points on 10 possessions. They may have lost Gardner Minshew to a torn ACL too, setting up Christmas night with Oladokun against the Denver defense. Sounds fun.

But quarterback injuries aside, the Chiefs ran through many of their same issues from the whole season: Bad penalties, bad special teams penalties like lining up offsides on a field goal on 4th-and-1, no running game, poor on third down, etc.

For as bad as the Chiefs were in an infamous 27-3 loss in Tennessee in 2021, a 12-5 team that earned the No. 1 seed, the Chiefs still averaged 37.5 yards per drive that day behind Mahomes. This? This is unwatchable, and it’s hard to believe we’re likely going to see the final games of Travis Kelce’s career play out this way.

Just going out sad.

Chargers at Cowboys: Receivers + Defense

One of my favorite underdog picks this week was the Chargers (+2.5) on the road in Dallas. Why? I knew Justin Herbert would roast that defense, and he sure did with 300 passing yards, no sacks, 3 total touchdowns, and he had a key 34-yard scramble on third down in the fourth quarter when the Chargers led 24-17. That led to a field goal and helped open up a big lead.

The Cowboys had some big strikes early for Dak Prescott’s offense, but after they were already eliminated on Saturday by Philadelphia’s win, they didn’t show up for the rest of the game, getting blanked in another second half in the 34-17 loss.

But it was so fitting to see George Pickens put up big numbers in a game that no longer mattered after he did so little in the previous two losses to the Lions and Vikings. Meanwhile, the Chargers came in with good receivers and a sound defense to take it to the Cowboys. Just better team building and coaching all around for the Chargers.

Jets at Saints: No Picks Again

With two games left against Drake Maye and Josh Allen, we really could see the 2025 Jets get through a full 17-game season without the defense getting a single interception. That’s unfathomable if you watched all the tipped balls getting picked off on Sunday. That kind of fluke play should be easy for the Jets to get on the board at least once in 15 games, but it’s never happened for Aaron Glenn’s unit.

Even though the Saints won 29-6, rookie Tyler Shough threw 49 passes for a season-high 308 yards as Kellen Moore was helping him get those reps in. The Saints are going to be one of the trendiest division winner picks in 2026, and I totally get it.

But the Jets are not a good litmus test for anything.

Eagles at Commanders: The NFC East Streak Is Over

A quick peek back to Saturday’s games, one of the wildest streaks in the 32-game era is over, and there’s a great chance we never see it again. The Eagles have repeated as NFC East champs, the first team to do so since the Eagles in 2001-04.

Every other division’s had at least two repeat winners in that time. The longest active drought is one year, and that might actually only go up to two years if the Seahawks can win the NFC West from the Rams, which they are favored to do now. The whole AFC is on the verge of a new winner this year. The NFC North is likely slipping from Detroit, and the Bucs are losing control of the NFC South. That just leaves Philly as the lone repeat with the Rams still alive too.

It was always the shared quarterback dominance (and quarterback injuries) that allowed this NFC East streak to go on from 2005-2024. One year it’d be Eli Manning, the next it’d be Donovan McNabb, then Tony Romo, or the random year by RG3 or Kirk Cousins.

This was supposed to be Jayden Daniels’ year after reaching the NFC Championship Game with the greatest rookie season ever. But the Commanders limped into Saturday’s game with 4 wins, then lost Marcus Mariota in the third quarter. That led to Josh Johnson playing, and after his pick, the Eagles had no problems piling on some touchdowns to cover the spread and end this division race.

Just another rough year for Washington, but hopefully 2024 won’t be an outlier for Daniels.

Packers at Bears: Shades of the 2014 NFC Championship Game

We had a few island games where a starting quarterback was knocked out with an injury. Jordan Love’s concussion was a brutal hit and his presence was missed, but I thought Malik Willis played well given the Packers were built to throw that night with only two tight ends active and Josh Jacobs wasn’t 100% healthy.

But the Bears really stole this one as they typically do when they’re having their successful years. They were slow to get their field goal in before the two-minute warning in a 10-point game, which was bad, but then Brandon Bostick Romeo Doubs flubbed the onside kick recovery, and the Bears were able to get it back at midfield with plenty of time left.

So, just like two weeks ago, Caleb Williams had the ball in a 7-point game against the Packers. This time, he got the touchdown pass on 4th down, and I would have swore Ben Johnson would go for 2 with 24 seconds left, but the presence of Willis in the game instead of Love likely made him settle for overtime, which isn’t such a bad deal these days.

Then when you win the coin toss, I think kicking first is an easy choice in this matchup. Make Malik Willis drive down the field for a touchdown using three conventional downs, and even that won’t end the game. Good luck to him doing it too, and I also like the prospects of Caleb getting all four downs to work the ball down the field as he can be erratic and needs the extra down.

But it didn’t even come down to that as the Packers, much like the Bears early in the game, botched their fourth-down snap at the Chicago 36 after bypassing on a long field goal on a windy night. That was really the right call, but they just blew the snap.

Then in the other play that looked just like the 2014 NFC Championship Game when the Packers lost in OT at Seattle, Williams uncorked a top throw of the whole season with his 46-yard touchdown to D.J. Moore in good coverage in the end zone to end the game.

That gives the 2025 Bears a record six wins in one season after trailing in the final 2:00 of the fourth quarter. Insane stuff, and yeah, it’s probably going to bite them in the ass next year, but that can wait until then. They’re in position for the No. 2 seed, and it’s possible we see round 3 of this matchup in a few weeks.

I’d be more than content with that.

Next week: Serves the NFL right for trying to steal Christmas from the NBA with a bad triple-header where 5/6 teams likely miss the playoffs. But the Saturday lineup is excellent with Texans-Chargers and Ravens-Packers like little playoff games. Just might be Tyler Huntley vs. Malik Willis in that second one. Sunday has upset potential with Seahawks at Panthers, Jags at Colts, and we’ll see if Myles Garrett can break sack record vs. Steelers. Eagles-Bills is the late window choice, and it’s not quite as big of a game as expected. Bears-49ers on SNF is solid even though both teams have clinched a playoff spot already. MNF (Rams-Falcons) is basically to see if Stafford can solidify MVP or falter badly and lose it against that pass rush.

2025 NFL Stat Oddity: Week 14

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

I said Sunday could prove to be a franchise-altering day in the AFC, and I think the results speak for themselves.

  • The Colts (8-5) have likely gone from 7-1 and the No. 1 seed to out of the playoffs after losing to the Jaguars again and losing Daniel Jones to a torn Achilles.
  • The Bengals (4-9) blew a snow game in Buffalo that should absolutely give the team the green light to fire Zac Taylor and his entire staff after Joe Burrow and company will miss the playoffs for a third-straight season.
  • The Ravens (6-7) lost at home to the Steelers (7-6), and while the AFC North is hardly decided, Baltimore still has to play the Patriots and Packers (teams competing for No. 1 seeds), and teams they just lost to at home (Bengals and Steelers on the road). If there was ever a season to force John Harbaugh out of town…
  • The Chiefs (6-7) couldn’t finish another close game against a good team and are on life support for the playoffs, needing to win out and for the Colts and Chargers to lose multiple games (actually not that unrealistic). But with how this year has gone, they’d be foolish not to make some major changes for 2026 as their AFC West reign is over and so may be their playoff streak.

I just wrote earlier this week how we’re trying to make sense of the new contenders this year and the unprecedented decline of so many contenders at once.  However, saying teams like the Bengals, Ravens, and Chiefs (Steelers too) need to make big changes for 2026 is not an overreaction to one off year. There have been things festering for multiple years there, and with the teams in dire situations going into Week 15, maybe they’ll finally realize something has to change.

As for the rest of Week 14, a lot of the games were duds as we’ve only had six comeback opportunities. In fact, the only double-digit comeback win of the last two weeks was the Bills over Bengals today, and the only fourth-quarter lead change on Sunday was Joe Burrowing throwing that pick-six in Buffalo.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Texans at Chiefs: Game of the Day

You have to give the 2025 Chiefs credit. If this was their last stand for the playoffs, and that’ll look increasingly likely if the Chargers win on Monday night, then they gave the home crowd all the greatest hits to their season:

  • An embarrassing pass rush when they didn’t blitz, leaving numerous receivers wide open on third-and-longs.
  • No takeaways on defense again.
  • Harrison Butker had about the loudest doink ever on a missed 42-yard field goal.
  • Limited touches for Brashard Smith (a 7-yard run) and Tyquan Thornton (19 yards but also had a touchdown bomb knocked away in the end zone) despite showing solid play.
  • Remember when the first pass of the season was Travis Kelce running into Xavier Worthy in Brazil? The first pass here saw backup left tackle Wanya Morris suffer a game-ending injury, leaving the offensive line without three starters and placing a third-string left tackle (UDFA rookie) in his NFL debut against the No. 1 defense.
  • Mahomes led the team in rushing with 59 yards (they’re 0-4 this year when that happens).
  • Season on the line, a pass from Mahomes went right off of Kelce’s hands for an interception (third time this year).

But there were a couple wrinkles in this performance that made it stand out as the worst loss of them all this season for the Chiefs: Aggression inconsistency and dropped passes.

The Chiefs, even going back to last year, have made a habit of playing games with limited possessions, usually getting 8-9 drives a week, the lowest total in the NFL. This makes it harder on the offense as every mistake gets magnified, but they made it work better last year with clutch plays to close out one-score games. The exact kind of plays they keep failing on this year.

But this game was different. The Chiefs had a season-high 13 possessions as each team had the ball 13 times. That’s because there were a lot of three-and-out drives and quick stops. It wasn’t a game with limited possessions, so the Chiefs could stand to make some mistakes here as the defense played well even after losing top corner Trent McDuffie early.

That’s why Andy Reid’s fourth-down decision making didn’t make any sense. He let the Dallas game beat him twice, because he was criticized in that one for a fourth-down punt in a shootout with Dallas. But this wasn’t a shootout. It was a grind with C.J. Stroud playing ice cold in the second half.

Reid let the offense go for a 4th-and-1 that led to a 2-yard Kareem Hunt touchdown in the third quarter. They needed the touchdown, so that was fine. But two drives later, why settle for the 36-yard field goal on 4th-and-2 at the 18 to tie the game with 1:50 left in the third? Why not be consistent and go for it again with your offense starting to move it well and the defense playing so well? You were getting possessions.

Then the real head-scratcher: 4th-and-1 at your own 31 in a 10-10 game with 10:22 left. The Texans just punted on a 4th-and-1 at their own 35, because they knew what kind of game this was. Why didn’t Reid understand it? Instead, he let the offense go for it, and Mahomes’ pass to Rashee Rice was defended tightly by Stingley, and I couldn’t tell if it was another defensed-dropped or what. But it was a turnover on downs either way.

Now a struggling Houston offense was set up 31 yards away from the end zone, and that gave the Texans new life to get a go-ahead touchdown, which they did. That decision largely killed the Chiefs in this game.

Then in getting the ball back in a 17-10 game, Reid basically did it again, going for a 4th-and-4 at his own 41 where failure almost likely leads to a 10-point deficit with under 5:00 left. Game over against this defense. And once again, Mahomes’ pass to Rice was flat out dropped.

Surprisingly, Houston went three-and-out after that one, giving Mahomes another chance from 92 yards away and 3:44 left. After a short drop by Kelce on first down, Mahomes threw a pass that should have been a first down to him that went off his hands and right to the defense for the third pick of the night. The second one to start the fourth quarter was an arm punt on third down out of FG range and out of 4-down territory, but this one hurt and it’s something Kelce has done three times this year to Mahomes – none bigger than here.

That one was the dagger as the Texans used up most of the clock to add a field goal for a 20-10 lead with 0:30 left. From there, it was just two stat-padding completions to avoid Mahomes finishing a full game with under 150 passing yards for the first time in his career. It was the first time he threw for 3 interceptions and no touchdowns.

But look what it took to get there. Three linemen out, the backup LT going out on play 1, the No. 1 defense on the other side, and a career-high 8 or 9 drops depending how you want to count some of those plays. Those drops combined with some really poor fourth-down decision making by Reid were actually far more damaging to the game than the backup offensive line was. This wasn’t Super Bowl 55 or Super Bowl 59 all over again with constant pass rush.

This was receivers not getting open against good coverage, then when they did, not completing plays as Mahomes has never had this many drops in one game. Just a ridiculous effort in the biggest game of the year for this team.

If this was Kelce’s last playoff-contention type of game in his NFL career, he finishes it with more drops (2) than catches (1) for the first time in his career. I’d say Mahomes might be a little happy on the downlow if Kelce chooses to retire and marry the most famous woman in the world. But then when you tell me Rice, who dropped a big third-and-8 in Dallas last week in a similar clutch situation, is supposed to be his next top target, I think the Chiefs are in some long-term trouble if they don’t sort this out.

On a cold night with both teams feeling the playoff pressure, the Texans stepped up and the Chiefs did not.

Fight or flight. The 2018-24 Chiefs had it in them to get it done in these games. The 2025 Chiefs simply do not, and the shame of it all is people will look at a game like this and still blame it all on the quarterback.

As for the Texans, they have hands down the best defense in the league this season. They were also very good in 2024, so we know this isn’t a fluke. They’ve been to the playoffs the last two years, got to the divisional round both times, and if they keep playing like this, they just might be able to win out until the Super Bowl in this weakened AFC. They might be the closest team we’ve seen to the 2015 Broncos from a decade ago, and yes, Davis Mills did his Brock Osweiler-level job of saving the season with some big wins over the Jags and Bills.

From 0-3 to 8-5, DeMeco Ryans and company deserve a lot of credit for this turnaround. As for Reid and the Chiefs, they aren’t mathematically eliminated, but it sure looks dire even if collapses by the Chargers (see schedule) and Colts (Jones/schedule) are not improbable at all.

What’s improbable is thinking the 2025 Chiefs can ever get through four straight wins without screwing up a game. They haven’t done it all year, and I no longer expect them to.

It’s a lost season.

Steelers at Ravens: The Rivalry Continues, Same As It Ever Was

This may be a selfish reason to want the continued employment of Mike Tomlin and John Harbaugh for these teams, but would the Steelers vs. Ravens rivalry be the same without them? Like, imagine these teams go in the opposite direction and hire some dorks trying to cosplay as Kyle Shanahan and Sean McVay. It just wouldn’t be the same and what makes this such a great rivalry filled with hard-fought, close games.

You can always throw out the records and spreads when these teams play. Did it matter that both played like shit at home in big losses last week where they turned it over and the quarterbacks were brutal? Nope, you ended up with a 27-22 thriller between two multi-time MVPs at quarterback in their first ever meeting.

Aaron Rodgers turned 42 this week but he looked as good as he has all season. He hit a deep ball to DK Metcalf on his first pass after going an entire month without a pass completed over 20 yards down the field. I want to say he had four in this game alone. He also scored his first rushing touchdown in over four years on a third-down scramble. His movement looked much better this week as if he got a Lazarus Pit to celebrate his 42nd birthday.

Then again, the Baltimore defense has been known to help quarterbacks perk up as Rodgers passed for a season-high 284 yards while taking no sacks. He also had no running game as the Steelers finished with 15 carries for 34 yards for him. Meanwhile, the Ravens rushed for 217 yards in the loss, producing this hilarious statistic about losing a game with a huge rushing margin:

That’s Steelers vs. Ravens in the 2020s for you. More accurately, that’s the Lamar Jackson era as to this day you still have to question Jackson’s arm and ability in games like this, another big one with first place in the AFC North on the line and the Ravens having a tougher remaining schedule.

Jackson won his last two starts against the Steelers in 2024, but his rest of career numbers and moments have been poor to say the least. In this game, he didn’t break 100 passing yards until the fourth quarter as the Ravens were leaning on the ground game with Derrick Henry and Keaton Mitchell also broke a 55-yard run.

There were some bright moments for Jackson in the fourth quarter, but the Ravens never put it together for a touchdown drive while the Steelers floundered on offense late. There was a go-ahead touchdown to Isaiah Likely that was ruled a drop after Joey Porter Jr. helped knock the ball out before Likely got a third foot down or did a football move. That was a tough call without great clarity from the NFL on what a catch is in 2025.

That drive ended in no points, because after the Likely mistake on first down, the Steelers stopped Henry twice, then Mark Andrews possibly got in the way of a Jackson pass on fourth down intended for DeAndre Hopkins in the back of the end zone with 2:22 left.

But given one more chance with 1:56 left and 74 yards to go, Jackson led a very poor two-minute drill, taking 69 seconds just to move the ball 8 yards. Reaching the Pittsburgh 30 with 9 seconds left, any shot at a Hail Mary was denied when Alex Highsmith sacked Jackson to end the game and give the Steelers a 7-6 record and first place.

The Ravens have struggled to play complementary football all season, and Sunday was no different. Pittsburgh finally won a big game this year without relying on a ton of turnovers on defense. Rodgers was excellent for three quarters, and if Likely wasn’t in a funk with the end zone, it may have been wasted again by the defense.

But the Steelers have been getting the best of this rivalry, especially when the games are at their closest. That’s also why I had full confidence in Pittsburgh still finishing with a winning record, because I knew they’d never get swept by Baltimore, especially not this Baltimore team.

Now we’ll see if they can build on this win and take advantage of a home game with Miami next week. Maybe even get a break with the Bengals possibly sweeping Baltimore on Sunday to create more separation.

But the sportsbooks have finally come around to making the Steelers the favorites (-160 at FanDuel) to win the AFC North over Baltimore (+170) and Cincinnati (+1300). There’s a reason almost every 1-5 team fails to come all the way back to make the playoffs.

The Ravens are just too mistake prone this year. Similar to the Chiefs in that regard, another team in the AFC they can’t seem to beat when they have to.

Bears at Packers: Ben Johnson Was Right Again

Ever since the Bears hired coach Ben Johnson, he has done an incredible job of saying the right things time and time again. He just probably wishes he wasn’t right when he said last week that the 9-3 Bears are winning in spite of their passing game with Caleb Williams.

On Sunday in Green Bay with the No. 1 seed on the line and the lead in the NFC North, Johnson was very prescient as Williams struggled mightily early on while Jordan Love had some key passes down the field for big plays (including third downs) that paced the Packers to numerous leads in a game they never trailed.

But Williams did make some of his best plays late, and even tied the game in the fourth quarter before the Packers marched for a game-winning touchdown. I predicted a 27-20 win by Green Bay, and they were up 28-21 late with Williams driving for what could have been his sixth comeback in the final 2:00 this year as you had to think Johnson probably goes for 2 on the road the way he is from the Dan Campbell school of thought.

But after the run got stuffed on 3rd-and-1, Williams blew a good play call with a bad throw on fourth down and it was intercepted in the end zone to end the game. Just like that, the Bears (9-4) fell from the No. 1 to the No. 7 seed.

These teams will meet again in 12 days, but Williams is going to need to be a lot more efficient if the Bears are going to get a split here.

Bengals at Bills: Mr. Perfect Until He Has to Be

I can say this about most quarterbacks, but Joe Burrow is actually more likeable than his annoying fans make him out to be. Watching him on those shows like Quarterback S2 or Hard Knocks In-Season with the AFC North, you can see he’s a football junkie, a Batman fan, and just wants to win games. This league is also in need of a pocket passer who can still frequently throw for 300 yards and multiple touchdowns without being a play-action merchant.

But where things get annoying with Burrow is the nonstop nicknames and the way the media has shoved him into conversations he doesn’t belong, or pretended that he’s a clutch player. I saw the “Joe Brrr” notification from the NFL app before Sunday’s snow game in Buffalo, and it was just earlier this week where I again pointed out that Burrow and his top wide receiver duo simply don’t win games in the clutch or shootouts despite being the most expensive trio in NFL history.

Burrow also has just one comeback win in the final 8:00 of a game in his career, and Sunday was no different. My other issues with Burrow stem from him being a sack merchant, often getting into trouble by looking for the big play. It should go against his nature as a perfectionist, which I think gets him into trouble in games where things don’t go well. He’ll let it snowball and not recover from a big mistake.

It all happened again on Sunday when Burrow went from playing a really fine game in Buffalo in the snow with four touchdowns on the first six drives. It was like he picked right up where he left off with his success against the Bills in 2022-23.

But one fateful pass from the Buffalo 33 with 5:35 left, leading 28-25, changed everything for the Bengals. Burrow tried to throw a quick pass, did a weird shot-put delivery on it, and Christian Benford was there for the 63-yard pick-six to put the Bills ahead 32-28.

Is Burrow so sick of me pointing out he has one comeback win in the last 8:00 that he tried to create a situation for himself to succeed? Then on the very next play, he got picked again on a battled ball at the line. The Bills took over at the Cincinnati 29, and of course Josh Allen, who got Dalton Kincaid back at a good time, was going to take advantage of the No. 32 defense on a short field by throwing another touchdown on fourth down.

Burrow answered quickly with his fourth touchdown pass to cut it to 39-34 with 2:13 left. That drive is another example of why stats that ignore the scoreboard show Burrow doing well in this situation when it was the two drives before this that mattered more when he had the picks.

But even after his defense sacked Allen to bring up 3rd-and-15, they gave up another 17-yard scramble to Allen, who also took off for a 40-yard touchdown earlier with inexplicably no defender in sight of his path to the end zone.

This was a very winnable game for the Bengals on the road to keep their season alive, but Burrow picked the worst time to make his worst play of the year. He crumbled instead of finishing the game, and given his history, it’s not that surprising.

He’s just not proven to be a closer yet, and this will be his third-straight missed postseason.

I still contend this is the worst Buffalo team since 2019, but if this is an AFC where they don’t have to worry about the Chiefs at all, don’t have to worry about going to Baltimore, and don’t have to worry about these Bengals, then Allen has no excuses left to not get to a Super Bowl.

Letting Drake Maye, Bo Nix, Trevor Lawrence, or C.J. Stroud get there before Allen does would be disastrous to his legacy.

Colts at Jaguars: Indiana Is Cursed in 2025

I was all in on the Jaguars to win this one despite being a 1.5-point home underdog. But you have to see Daniel Jones tear his Achilles on a different leg than the one he had the fractured fibula with. I’m not a doctor, so I can’t comment if that may have led to this the way Tyrese Haliburton’s calf injury led to his Achilles in the NBA Finals, but it’s just been that kind of cursed year for Indiana sports teams. Caitlin Clark also had a season-ending groin injury in a year her Fever had a shot in the playoffs.

The Colts would have had a shot in this AFC if they were healthy, but between Jones going down and Sauce Gardner getting injured shortly after they traded for him, it’s been a brutal stretch for the Colts. From 7-1 to 8-5 and little hope with that tough schedule left.

Worse, they don’t even have a healthy (even if temporarily healthy) Anthony Richardson to go to and see if he can give them anything for the playoff run. They might have to snag Joe Flacco away from the Bengals somehow.

But give credit to the Jaguars. They scored a lot of points on short fields set up by the defense like they’ve been doing this year. I actually think they can get to 12-5 given the schedule, which includes another game with battered Indy.

Crazy how you can go from 7-1 and averaging over 3.0 points per drive to potentially finishing with a losing record and an offense that’s barely top 10, if that, when you consider the Colts have to play the Seahawks, 49ers, Jaguars, and Texans.

Saints at Buccaneers: Tyler Shough Can Move Like That?

With all due respect to Taysom Hill, I don’t think your services are needed anymore in New Orleans. If Tyler Shough can move like that on his two rushing touchdowns in Tampa Bay, then there’s no reason he can’t keep the ball on some of those snaps they give to Hill.

Shough’s second touchdown run also completed the first game-winning drive of his NFL career as the Saints (+8.5) completed the 24-17 upset on the road despite the Bucs having more healthy weapons for Baker Mayfield, who struggled in this one.

But I would still argue Tampa Bay pissed this one away more than the Saints won it. Tampa Bay finished 2-of-7 on fourth down, so when you get 11 drives and end five of them on fourth down (plus one pick), that’s really brutal offense, and it’s not like these were 4th-and-desperate situations late in the game.

I don’t know if Todd Bowles wanted a bow with his points to take them, or if he thought this was the right strategy as these were the five fourth-down failures:

  • 1Q, tied 7-7, 4th-and-1 at NO 45: Bucky Irving lost 7 yards on a run.
  • 2Q, up 10-7, 4th-and-1 at NO 49: Tucker stuffed for no gain on a run.
  • 2Q, up 10-7, 4th-and-15 at NO 47: Mayfield incomplete pass (I guess they weren’t confident in the 65-yard field goal in the conditions)
  • 4Q, tied 17-17, 4th-and-2 at NO 46: Mayfield incomplete pass to Godwin (Saints drove for game-winning touchdown from there).
  • 4Q, down 24-20, 4th-and-4 at TB 26: Mayfield 3-yard pass to Cade Otton for a turnover on downs to end game.

The last one is obvious, the one before halftime makes sense given the field position, I guess. But those three short ones at midfield, out of field goal range, and not in a bad situation on the scoreboard? Might have been able to argue they should punt there and put the rookie QB on a long field.

The Buccaneers and Panthers are both 7-6 with two matchups to come. This thing is far from over in the NFC South if the Bucs are going to keep playing with their food like this.

Commanders at Vikings: For Who, For What?

I’ll never understand what the Commanders were doing with Jayden Daniels in 2025. He had a few injuries as a rookie, but his elbow injury this year was not necessary as it happened after Dan Quinn kept him in a blowout against Seattle far too long.

Then given this team was 3-9 and hadn’t won since Week 5, what’s the point of even playing him again this year? He returned Sunday, he was rusty against a complex defense, and he re-injured his elbow on an interception return play. Now they’ll probably sit him for the rest of the year, but he should have been on the bench in the Seattle blowout and this elbow stuff never should have happened.

You have to protect your best asset. I’m not sure Quinn makes it to 2026 as the defense didn’t get any better despite that being the side they needed to fix desperately. Now the offense is messed up as well.

Seahawks at Falcons: Road Warriors Strike Again

This was actually a 6-6 game at halftime before the Seahawks blew it open in the third quarter with Rashid Shaheed scoring his first Seattle touchdown on a 100-yard kickoff return, then a Bijan Robinson fumble led to the first of two JSN touchdown catches as the rout was on.

The Seahawks (10-3) have been strong on the road all year, and now they get to face the Colts without Daniel Jones before their huge Thursday night rematch with the Rams in Week 16 when they’ll have a chance to take the NFC West lead.

Broncos at Raiders: The Worst Beat of the Year

Given how horrible the Broncos were on offense in the 10-7 win against this team last month, you have to give them credit here. Granted, 7 of the 24 points were a punt return touchdown, but they only had 7 possessions in this game and they gained 81, 41, 47, 91, and 90 yards on the five drives that weren’t limited by the clock and situation at the end of each half. They were sustaining drives with ease.

Some bettors just wish they would have gained 4 more yards on their last snap, because that left enough time for the Raiders, who trailed 24-14 with as little as 0:05 left, get into field goal range after an absurd penalty for trying to stay on top of a receiver who was down extended the game one more down. Then Pete Carroll decided to kick the 46-yard field goal, it was good with 0:00 left, and the Raiders (+7.5) covered the spread in a ridiculous 24-17 final.

I’ve had a pretty good spread week (8-5 ATS), but that was definitely the worst beat of the season on one of these.

Rams at Cardinals: Someone’s Winning in Fantasy on These Cardinal Blowouts

You just know there’s someone out there winning their fantasy league or taking down DFS contests (they still run those, right?) by stacking Jacoby Brissett and Michael Wilson (11/142/2 on Sunday). All that sweet volume and very little real-life NFL value because they either get blown out like they did here to the Rams (45-17), or they come up short in the fourth quarter of a one-score loss.

But this one was the blowout as the Rams led 45-10 at one point. Big bounce-back effort after last week’s loss in Carolina.

Titans at Browns: Shedeur Gets Some Stats, Cam Ward Gets the Win

This Toilet Bowl between the Titans (1-11) and Browns (3-9) actually proved to be far more interesting and nuanced than most Week 14 games. I can’t believe I’m about to write as many words on a Week 14 game between these teams as I am.

It was in theory a matchup of what were supposed to be the top two quarterbacks in the 2025 draft before Shedeur Sanders fell to the fifth round. I knew he’d try to shine in this one against the worst team in football, and to some extent, he did. Sanders finished with 364 passing yards, 3 touchdown passes, 1 touchdown run, 1 interception, and he led a comeback attempt in the final 5:00 that came up a hideous 2-point conversion try short of tying the game.

Meanwhile, Cam Ward only completed 14-of-28 passes for 117 yards, 2 touchdowns, and one pick against that tough Cleveland defense. But Myles Garrett, much like last week against the 49ers, got the lone sack for the defense.

It was also another game where the rest of the team sold out the defense with poor field position as the Titans had touchdown drives of 53, 38, and 8 yards as well as a 6-yard field goal drive without a first down gained.

But late in the game with the Titans up 31-17 thanks to those short fields (and a big day for Tony Pollard with 161 yards and two scores), we saw the shortcomings of the new down 14 strategy that I was just questioning last week. What happens if a team misses both conversions and is still down 2 late? That’s what happened to Cleveland in large part because they called a weird trick play for the final one instead of letting Sanders do something more conventional.

Let’s just note that Cleveland scored that second touchdown with 1:03 left. That left plenty of time to recover an onside kick and win the field goal as I said teams will do in the NFL as  you can’t really time out when you get a touchdown. Then had the Browns made the first 2PC, if you score with 1:03 left, look at how much time that leaves the Titans to go get a game-winning field goal with the new kickoff rules and the improved range for kickers with the new k-balls. The same is true if they had only tied the game at 31.

So again, I understand why teams do the down 14 thing. I just don’t think it’s all that advantageous because of what it does to the game state. For one, I don’t like the prospects of having to convert a do-or-die 2PC at any point in the game, so I’d rather avoid that. Then if you get the first one and you’re down 6, that should trigger the opponent to try better to add to the lead or run out the clock than if they had the cushion of a 7-8 point lead. Then there’s the end-game scenario of taking a 1-point lead quite possibly with plenty of time for the other team to use 4-down football to set up a game-winning field goal.

Yeah, I’m just never going to be a big fan of that, and games like this make it look even less attractive to me. Going to overtime has never actually been less scary than it is now with the new rules there. There’s no real sudden death unless you majorly fuck up like a pick-six or safety on the first drive.

Alas, this was the Toilet Bowl, so it didn’t really matter what these teams did. Just a game with far more points – I believe the total closed at a season-low 33.0 – and intrigue than it ever deserved to have for Week 14.

Also, it’s going to make the Shedeur cult even crazier because he’s delivering the big plays they said he would in the NFL. Just don’t let them hear that some have been filled with YAC, or that he’s only done it against the two worst NFL teams this season (Vegas and Titans) and lost 26-8 to a San Francisco team that was missing its two best defenders.

Cults don’t like pesky facts like that.

Dolphins at Jets: The Streaks Continue

He didn’t have to do much in this one, but Tua Tagovailoa is now 7-0 as a starter against the Jets after the Dolphins quickly opened up a 21-0 lead and held on for the 34-10 win. The Jets were stuck playing UDFA rookie Brady Cook from Missouri after a Tyrod Taylor injury.

With the loss, the Jets (3-10) have been eliminated from the playoffs for the 15th season in a row, the longest active drought in the four major American sports leagues.

Next week: The Week 15 schedule is decent even if the island games are not. The Bucs need to pick things up at home against Atlanta on Thursday night. We’ll see a Baltimore-Cincy rematch from Thanksgiving that’s lost some luster with both losing Sunday. Chargers-Chiefs could be similar if the Chargers lose on Monday night. Bills-Patriots is the big one, and we’ll see if NE can win the AFC East or if Buffalo can try to repeat its 2021 success by coming back to beat them and eventually destroying them in the wild card.

Green Bay vs. Denver is decent for a non-conference game between possible No. 1 seeds. Lions at Rams might be more fun to watch for three quarters though. Colts should get rocked in Seattle. I’ll be writing this early while we’re stuck with Cowboys vs. Vikings on SNF. Steelers usually win at home on MNF, and Miami usually loses on the road under McDaniel to .500+ teams, but we’ll see how that one goes to end the week now that the Steelers will get props this week instead of being in that underdog role.

NFL 2025 Week 13 Predictions: Eagles Choke on the Down 15 Situation Edition

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

We’re already four games into NFL Week 13 with the holiday games, and the underdogs were 4-0 SU. More than that, they beat the Lions, Chiefs, Ravens, and Eagles who were all in the top five for Super Bowl 60 odds. It’s the kind of result we keep seeing this year as almost every team who was great in the regular season in 2024 is struggling in 2025.

It’s the story of the 2025 NFL season, and Philadelphia’s 24-15 loss to the Bears was especially shocking with the way Chicago ran for over 230 yards between the tackles alone against them. Just pure domination a day after we watched the Bengals turn over the Ravens and beat them down in Baltimore too.

But I feel the need to rant at 7 AM here about the Eagles’ decision to go for 2 in a 24-15 game with 3:10 left. How people think this is a good strategy is still beyond me. I usually rant about this once a year and I think this will have to serve as the 2025 rant on it. While I’m not against going for two early in all cases, there is a point on the clock where it becomes a silly endeavor that just ends the game earlier than it had to end. You could see how dejected the team and fans were after the Eagles, who struggled all day offensively again, failed on their 2PC pass, keeping it a two-possession game.

With how hard it’s become to recover an onside kick, I want no part of the strategy that’s going to lead me to having to recover one (or two). Make that a last resort.

But people still insist this is right when I just can’t get behind that. I’ve shared the data before, and I just updated some of it again to share.

Since 1994 when the NFL brought in the two-point conversion (2PC), we have seen 170 touchdowns scored in the fourth quarter by a team down by exactly 15 points at the time to make it a 9-point game. There were three games where a team did it twice in the quarter (including Bills vs. Ravens in Week 1 this year), so it’s actually 167 games total.

These teams are 11-155-1 (.069) in the game, and that’s not nice at all. It’s a dire situation to be in no matter how you approach it. But here are some more stats

  • Teams who kick the extra point first down 9 to make it an 8-point game are 135-of-138 on the extra point, and JOEY SLYE has all three misses for three different teams this decade. One of the craziest stats I’ve ever seen as kickers have been automatic in this spot except for one journeyman bum.
  • Team who go for the 2PC right away down 9 to try to make it a 7-point game are just 13-of-32 (40.6%) on the attempt, including a conversion from Chad Pennington in a 2007 Jets game with 0:00 left, so there was no point in even defending that as the game was over.
  • Meanwhile, of the 27 teams who kicked the extra point first and wound up scoring a second touchdown and needed a game-tying 2PC, they were 17-of-27 (63.0%). So, it’s all very small sample sizes since 1994, but that’s 40.6% vs. 63.0% for going for 2 early vs. late, giving some credence to the idea that, yes, teams who wait after proving they can score a 2nd TD on this defense have been better at converting for 2 when they had to have it.
  • Of the 11 teams who came back to win the game, 7 of them did it by scoring a TD/XP + TD/2PC + GW score later.

Four teams won in unique fashion, and three of them have been in this 2025 season as teams get more experimental on when to go for 2. But the main thing I want to stress is there’s never been a game in NFL history where a team won after trailing by 15, scoring a touchdown, converting a 2PC, then scoring another touchdown and either scoring a third time to win the game or going for two a second time to win the game by a point.

2020 Cowboys vs. Falcons: People love citing this example because it was literally 1-of-1 before this season. The Cowboys scored a touchdown with 4:57 left, which is considerably more time than the 3:10 the Eagles had on Friday. They failed on the 2PC, so they were still down 39-30, then they got the ball back, scored a TD/XP, then recovered a ridiculous onside kick to drive for a GW FG in a 40-39 win. All truly made possible for an all-time onside kick blunder.

2025 Bills vs. Ravens: This was Week 1 SNF and it’s another unique game because the Bills are the first team to try both down 15 strategies in the same quarter. They went for the 2PC and failed with 12:51 left. After Baltimore scored again, the Bills were down 40-25, then they switched course and kicked the XP with 3:56 left (40-32). Then they got the Derrick Henry fumble big break, then they got another TD, failed on their third 2PC of the quarter (40-38), then used their timeouts to force a three-and-out before driving for the GW FG (41-40).

2025 Cardinals vs. Titans: Another goofy ass game this year. The Titans were down 21-6, got a touchdown, Joey Slye missed the XP to keep it 21-12, but then the offense got a TD/XP after a Cam Ward interception was fumbled and returned for a touchdown by the offense (21-19). Then they got the ball back and won on a GW FG (22-21) for Slye to redeem himself. But this was a team going for the XP first and getting lucky to win even after it failed.

2025 Jets vs. Bengals: Here we go again with a historic game with a team incorporating multiple strategies. The Jets went for 2 after scoring a TD in a 31-16 game and converted to make it 31-24 with 14:17 left (plenty of time again). But after the Bengals got another TD (38-24), we saw the Jets execute the down 14 strategy next by going for 2 on their first TD drive, making it a 6-point game, then getting the go-ahead TD to go up 39-38 with 1:54 left. So, this win was really more about the down 14 strategy than what they did down 15.

Pretty interesting how we’re seeing the strategies evolve this season, but one thing I’m not seeing is any inherent value in going for 2 early in a game that is way too late like the Eagles faced on Friday. Kick the extra point, make it a 24-16 game, then keep the pressure on Chicago to do something stupid like a fumble, run out of bounds or throw incomplete to stop the clock, etc.

The Bears ended up moving the chains before giving up the ball on a turnover on downs, leaving the Eagles with 1:12 in a 9-point game and a long field. They ended up missing a 52-yard field goal with 0:09 left, and would have still needed an onside kick recovery (lucky if it’s 5% these days) and Hail Mary TD (good luck).

Now, maybe the Bears kick a 47-yard field goal on 4th-and-4 had it been a 24-16 game had the Eagles kicked an extra point instead of failing for 2. But let’s say they do the same thing, then Hurts would have had the ball in a 24-16 game with 70 yards to go in 72 seconds to tie the game. I like my chances a lot better in that spot.

Yet, I knew people would still defend Nick Sirianni’s decision, but I refuse to ever get behind it. With 14:00 left? Absolutely fine. With 7:30 left? Okay. But 3:10? Hell no. Watching it live, I gave up on the game the moment they failed on the 2PC and went to eat a piece of chocolate pie in the kitchen. This shit was over.

Now imagine how the players felt at that moment too. Any number advantage you think exists is so marginal to what impact actually failing on the 2PC does to the game in that spot. The only “information” gleamed here is you’re fvcked.

Until next season, my down 15 rant is over.

This Week’s Articles

2025 NFL Quarterback Rankings Week 13: Patrick Mahomes and Dak Prescott Set for Big Thanksgiving Showdown
Scott’s Seven NFL Picks: Week 13

NFL Week 13 Predictions

You know I originally had CHI ATS/PHI ML before switching it up to Eagles by 8. Whoops.

LAR-CAR: Season is really fvcked if the Rams lose this one but I do like the 1H spread better than the full game.

ARI-TB: Sounds like Baker is good to go, so I’m going with TB at home. Gotta get back in the win column.

TEN-JAX: Can the Jags actually blow anyone out? I’ll give TEN a bone to cover if they could cover the Seahawks, they could cover the Jags.

NO-MIA: Meh. Whatever.

SF-CLE: Really looking forward to seeing if Cleveland can match its 2023 upset against a better SF team when they made things tough on Purdy.

ATL-NYJ: All in on the Jeff Ulbrich revenge game for Atlanta’s defense roughing up the Jets.

HOU-IND: Yep, I’ll take the top defense and C.J. Stroud’s return while Daniel Jones has to operate on a fractured fibula. This might be Houston’s last stand in the AFC South.

MIN-SEA: What’s a Brosmer and why will he probably play better than J.J. McCarthy would have? Sam Darnold revenge game too.

BUF-PIT: Read my NFL picks for a parlay and more detail on this game. I’m hedging on the pick, but I really do think the Steelers can win this one with the running game and their takeaways against a shaky Buffalo team missing its OTs.

LV-LAC: Don’t expect much from LV who already lost 20-9 to these Chargers in Week 2.

DEN-WAS: I’ll be getting work done early Sunday night instead of laying on the couch for this one. Should have been flexed.

NYG-NE: Curious to see if Jaxson Dart can force Drake Maye to lead his first 4QC in the NFL, but it’s another horrible defense for Maye to face and one that can’t hold any leads either.

2025 NFL Stat Oddity: Week 12

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

The NFL Week 12 schedule delivered with three games going to overtime where taking the ball first or second was a debate. We also had a 21-point comeback in a game that maybe you should have expected it since one team has consistently been putting in half-assed efforts this year.

But I still heavily lean towards going on defense first in overtime with the new rules. This way you know exactly what you need on offense, you probably will have enough time to move the ball downfield using all four downs, any part of the field you want, and that’s the kind of football we rarely ever see in the NFL. You’re usually working against a major time constraint at the end of a half in the hurry-up offense. Not so much here.

Alas, the Jaguars and Lions both got the ball first and won their games after a score and defensive stop. But not the Colts. They actually let Patrick Mahomes touch the ball last like Kyle Shanahan did in Super Bowl 58 and he made sure they never saw the ball again. Who you’re playing and the context of the game still matter for your overtime decision, but in most cases, I think you’d be better to go on defense first just like they did in college for years. When there’s no sudden death anymore on that first drive? Not a hard choice.

We had seven games with a comeback opportunity this week (six on Sunday). Pretty good drama except for one of the worst Sunday Night Football games.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Colts at Chiefs: Game of the Week

The Chiefs had been the only winless team (0-5) in one-score games this year, and that’s why I think it was important for them to win in adverse conditions on Sunday instead of easily pushing past the Colts by double digits like their other wins this year.

Sure, you don’t want to have a tipped ball getting intercepted by a lineman on the first throw of the game. You don’t want the refs calling bullshit facemask penalties on your right tackle to take a touchdown off the board when he’s a penalty machine enough on his own without phantom calls. You don’t want to fumble in the red zone while you’re still down 20-9 in the fourth quarter, finishing the game minus-2 in turnovers (2-0) and minus-4 in sacks (4-0).

But those mistakes are the reason this game was a grind that the Chiefs needed overtime to win 23-20, a game where they never technically led for any seconds before Harrison Butker’s fifth field goal of the day went through in OT.

Still, I think it’s the kind of clutch win against a good team (Colts were 8-2 and coming off a bye week) that the Chiefs can build from as they accomplished several good things in this game:

  • Mahomes threw for 352 yards, ran for 30 more, and limited his 4 sacks to just 6 lost yards.
  • Kareem Hunt paced the offense with 30 carries for 104 yards as the Chiefs ran 91 plays to 50 for the Colts, gained 494 yards, and held the ball for 42:35.
  • Despite the Colts getting corners Sauce Gardner and Charvarius Ward together for the first time, the Chiefs found ways to get Rashee Rice (141 yards) and Xavier Worthy (59 yards) open for 200 yards as they led the way instead of a 36-year-old Travis Kelce (43 yards).
  • The defense shut down Jonathan Taylor, holding him to 58 yards on 16 carries with nearly half of those yards coming on one run (27 yards).
  • Alec Pierce had been hot for Indy but was limited to a single 26-yard catch.
  • Daniel Jones was ice cold to finish this game, and the Colts went three-and-out on four straight drives to end it against a KC defense that was No. 24 in three-and-out rate this season.

This is the kind of gut-check win that has defined this run of success for the Chiefs. But it may have all been for naught in overtime after the Chiefs faced a 3rd-and-7 following a 3-yard run by Clyde-Edwards Helaire. Seriously, 2nd-and-10, season the line, and you’re going inside from the shotgun with CEH for 3 yards?

But that’s when Mahomes delivered his most important completion of the season for 31 yards deep to Worthy. Rice had another 20-yard play soon after that as this may have been his best NFL game ever as he finally established that quick connection that produces meaningful YAC in this offense. Then it was a matter of Butker hitting from 27 yards out, which he did for the 23-20 win.

The Chiefs still have some things to work on. But look around the rest of the NFL. Who doesn’t have flaws this year? They can build on this but it is a quick turnaround on Thursday against a Dallas team that can score and is playing with some confidence.

Meanwhile, the Colts (8-3) are in some trouble with the Jaguars a game behind and two games to come against each other. They could even fall out of the playoffs entirely, so the Chiefs may actually find themselves rooting for the Jags to win the AFC South since they actually have a H2H tie-breaker over a team in Indy.

Big missed opportunity from the Colts on a day where Jones was never sacked. Still, they kept going to him with the Chiefs shutting down the run and he didn’t deliver. It’s a problem after how good this offense was for half the season.

Eagles at Cowboys: The Most Half-Assed Team in the NFL

After six games this year, I said that the 2025 Eagles were one of the most half-assed teams in NFL history. A team that could drop 21 points by halftime and be lucky to only add a field goal in the second half like they did in Week 1 against Dallas when they won 24-20.

Well, I haven’t been keeping up with the stat as I see the Eagles haven’t been so bad at this in recent weeks. But Sunday was quite the spectacle as they penned their magnum opus: a 21-0 lead in Dallas in the first 20 minutes followed by the Cowboys outscoring them 24-0 the rest of the day. It’s the fourth time the Cowboys have erased a 21-point deficit to win, their largest comeback deficit in team history.

It’s incredible how this keeps happening to a team that’s trying to repeat. The Eagles scored three touchdowns on three drives before going punt, end of half, punt, punt, punt, missed field goal (56 yards), Saquon Barkley lost fumble, fumbled punt return, and a punt after Jalen Hurts was sacked on a key 3rd-and-2 in a 21-21 game.

Barkley finished with 22 yards on 10 carries and that fumble on a catch in Dallas territory in a tied game. The fumbled punt return actually didn’t end up hurting the Eagles as they stopped the Cowboys on 4th-and-goal from the 1, a curious decision as the Eagles didn’t look capable of putting together another scoring drive after this cold streak.

And they didn’t. Hurts looked like he might have something cooking before a 3rd-and-2 sack changed everything. The Cowboys got the ball back and big catches by Jake Ferguson and George Pickens (playing better than CeeDee Lamb this year) set up the field goal from 42 yards out to win the game with no time left.

The Cowboys had three pass plays of 43-plus yards to three different receivers in this game as they took advantage of some injuries in Philly’s secondary. But the offense has to take ownership on these dismal scoreless halves. They have way too much talent to be doing this, but this is what happens when your offensive coordinator has no clue what he’s doing.

I still don’t think the NFC East is in any jeopardy with the Eagles at 8-3 and the Cowboys at 5-5-1. Remember, no one has repeated as NFC East champs since the 2001-04 Eagles, so this game being the catalyst for another Philadelphia implosion would be an all-timer. But I don’t think we’re there.

However, this keeps Dallas alive in the wild card hunt, and it hurts the Eagles’ chances at that No. 1 seed. With the way this team is playing, taking Eagles first half ML, Bears full game ML on Friday might be a good call this week.

They seem to have forgotten games are 60 minutes long.

Giants at Lions: The Full Jameis Experience

How fun is the Jameis Winston experience when it’s like this? His touchdown catch from 33 yards out in the fourth quarter gave the Gants a 10-point lead, but that’s been their undoing all year. Sure enough, they did it again as Jahmyr Gibbs was incredible with multiple long touchdown runs in this game.

Then I can’t fault the Giants for going for the 4th-and-5 in a 27-24 game instead of kicking a field goal to go up 30-24, which is a 6-point lead, which is fool’s gold. My issue is they called some poor plays on second and third down, which led to the 4th-and-6. Gotta seize that moment as a touchdown there should win the game.

Instead, the Lions got the ball back, and sure enough, their kicker was good from 59 yards out to force overtime. Totally saved the day. Then after Gibbs exploded for 69 yards on the first play of overtime for a touchdown, Winston had his shot to answer and failed. Great fourth-down sack by Aidan Hutchinson to put a stamp on the 34-27 comeback win.

Buccaneers at Rams: First Half TKO

What can be said about SNF? It was one of the most pointless second halves I’ve ever seen in an NFL game as Baker Mayfield couldn’t return after a horrible decision to have him throw a miracle Hail Mary in a 31-7 game when he was already ailing. We’ll see if that costs this team a division title and playoff spot after their third-straight loss.

But just total control for the Rams from the start. Cade Otton’s weird bobbled catch, knees down, ball stripped away for a “pick six” quickly set this one on a path to a disastrous night for the Bucs. Just not giving themselves a fair shot to win.

But yeah, there was just a single field goal added after halftime as the Rams won 34-7. A game where both teams could have agreed to just kneel out the second half and be better for it.

Patriots at Bengals: Defensive Effort Wasted

The rare NFL game where both defenses scored a pick-six. You’re not surprised if Joe Flacco throws one of those, but Drake Maye doing it by lofting a horrible pass right to the Bengals’ defensive back was certainly unexpected.

But the Bengals wasted one of their best defensive efforts this year. Beyond the pick-six, they contained the running game well, and they came up with big stops in the red zone as the Patriots only had one touchdown drive.

But the Ja’Marr Chase suspension for spitting at Jalen Ramsey last week was a big one as Flacco could have used his best weapon in a game where multiple receivers were hurt, including a concussion for Tee Higgins. That left Flacco firing to a random cast on the final drive in a 26-20 game.

He converted a few fourth downs but not the last one to end the game as the Patriots escaped to a league-best 10-2 record. Are they actually that good of a team? I don’t think so. But they keep finding ways to win.

Steelers at Bears: Aaron Rodgers Misses Last Chicago Bout

We’ll see what comes of the Steelers’ season at 6-5, but maybe they’ll regret not letting Aaron Rodgers give it a go against the team he’s owned his whole career. Pittsburgh’s defense was bad in this game again outside of one pressure on Caleb Williams in the end zone that he exacerbated by giving up a strip-sack to T.J. Watt that was recovered for a touchdown.

The Steelers were up to their turnover tricks again, but I feel like they lost the game in three key places:

  • After the strip-sack, they got another turnover (hard to see) on a fumble at midfield, but instead of building on their 14-7 lead, they were stopped with Heyward on the Tush Push at midfield, and Chicago drove a short field for the game-tying touchdown. Big swing.
  • Mason Rudolph threw a pick on his first deep pass, then tried to get away with dink-and-dunk throws the rest of the way until he got strip-sacked in the late third quarter, which led to a Chicago touchdown and 10-point deficit.
  • Down 31-28, Rudolph had a couple of cracks at it and may have gotten it done for at least the tying field goal had the Steelers lined up properly (illegal formation penalty wiped out 22-yard scramble to midfield), then he has to do better on those last throws as Chris Bowell may have been able to make it from 60 to force overtime.

Just a disappointing day for Pittsburgh as it rushed for 186 yards and got a lot of YAC plays again on offense. But they let Caleb Williams get away with too many rough plays that they couldn’t capitalize on.

Vikings at Packers: What If Your QB’s Alter Ego Was One of a Functional Quarterback?

I think it would have been so funny if J.J. McCarthy’s “Nine” alter ego was a quarterback who only had good moments in games against Big Ten-region teams like the ones in his division. A trip to Green Bay (Wisconsin)? Sounds great.

But if Sunday was any indication of what kind of quarterback we’re dealing with here, he won’t be around many more years for the Packers to exploit him in Vikings-Packers games. Green Bay finally covered the big spread with ease this year in a 23-6 win that was never in doubt.

McCarthy threw for just 87 yards and that’s even worse when you take away 35 more yards from the 5 sacks where he flirted with safeties. All Minnesota could do was two long field goals on nine drives as McCarthy was picked twice to end the game.

Green Bay didn’t need to show much on offense to win this one comfortably.

Falcons at Saints: You Are Not Serious Teams

I picked the Falcons (+1.5) to win even without Michael Penix and Drake London because I just thought they were due a win, they’d turn things over to Bijan Robinson and the running game, and that pass rush could stop a rookie (Tyler Shough) in his third start.

Some of that was exactly right, but Kirk Cousins did his defense few favors by throwing a pick-six. Otherwise, the Saints’ offense 3 points on 10 drives. They even missed two field goals, so neither team looked very serious to me in a game between the NFC South’s worst teams.

We’ve fallen a far way from shootouts between Drew Brees and Matt Ryan. Then again, bringing out your quarterback on 4th-and-goal at the 1 so Taysom Hill can throw an incomplete pass to waste half of the third quarter does sound like something late-stage Sean Payton would have done too.

Jaguars at Cardinals: Same Old Script

Seemingly every Jacksonville game in 2025: Trevor Lawrence raises coach Liam Coen’s blood pressure with horrific turnovers, but the defense gets some timely pressures, someone with a private college-sounding name scores a touchdown, and they win by 1-3 points.

Seemingly every Arizona game in 2025: Jacoby Brissett throws a ton of passes, takes a late lead, the defense gives it up, and he can’t close the deal in a one-score loss.

Those two scripts collided on Sunday and the Jaguars moved to 7-4 with another 27-24 overtime win to the chagrin of other AFC fans as this team hasn’t played a lot of good football this year but keeps winning games like this.

They overcame 4 turnovers by Lawrence in this one, and that doesn’t include an ill-advised incompletion on 4th-and-1 that gave Arizona its chance for a game-tying field goal that forced overtime.

It was a little surprising to see the Jaguars want the ball first in overtime, but they made it work out. The offense got a 52-yard field goal, then Brissett reminded us why he’s now 7-25 at game-winning drives after throwing incomplete on 4th-and-4 at the Jacksonville 42.

Seahawks at Titans: 30-24? Really?

Have to pat myself on the back for this one and going with the first-half spread (Seahawks -6.5 or -7.5 depending when you placed it) as the best bet instead of the full-game spread, the Titans going under their team total, or thinking this might be the week for Rashid Shaheed to catch a long touchdown for his new team.

Instead, it was the JSN Show again with 167 yards and 2 touchdowns as the Seahawks led 16-3 at halftime, then 23-3 before eventually winning 30-24 with the backdoor cover open for Cam Ward, who still scored more points than I ever imagined in this one. Granted, the Titans had another return touchdown on a punt.

But these are the games where Seattle looks great. Beating up on the worst teams this year.

Jets at Ravens: Ho-Hum, the Ravens Won Again

Something’s just been off with the Ravens since Lamar Jackson came back. He struggled for a long time to get to 100 passing yards in this game, Derrick Henry only averaged 3.0 yards per carry, they were 2-11 on third down, and they were just fortunate to be playing the Jets, who never really get turnovers this year.

The Jets may have even been ready to pull off the upset as a 13.5-point underdog in Baltimore, but three key moments sunk them in the 23-10 loss:

  • Up 7-3 before halftime, Tyrod Taylor took a sack on 3rd-and-2 at the Baltimore 39 and the Jets had to punt instead of adding points.
  • After the Ravens took their first lead at 10-7 in the third quarter, the Jets failed on 4th-and-2 at their own 42, setting up the Ravens for a short touchdown drive and 17-7 lead. You don’t have Detroit’s offense anymore, Aaron Glenn. Punt there and make Baltimore earn it on a long field.
  • Down 20-10 with 6:58 left, Breece Hall fumbled in the red zone and that’s a wrap.

The Ravens (6-5) are above .500 for the first time this season but that doesn’t make them dangerous yet. Not playing like this on offense against bad teams.

Browns at Raiders: Chip Kelly’s Swansong

Yes, Shedeur Sanders winning his first start gets the headlines, but this one was really about the Cleveland defense sacking Geno Smith 10 times, which has led to offensive coordinator Chip Kelly getting fired Sunday night. He clearly didn’t have much of a line to work with, but he also never really had a plan for Ashton Jeanty either.

Meanwhile, the Browns did a good job of limiting Sanders’ exposure to the pass rush with just 1 sack on 20 throws while still giving him some freedom to make plays, like he did on an early 52-yard completion. I’m not sure what in the Kadarius Toney got into Jerry Jeudy on his fumble play, but that could have been another huge play for the offense to get points, and of course Sampson took a screen 66 yards for a touchdown in the fourth quarter to ice it.

But the Raiders are just hot garbage this year, so I’m not sure this really proves anything either way for Sanders, who should be glad he didn’t get drafted there.

Next week: Thanksgiving means island games coming out the ass this week with three on Thursday (pretty strong slate, to be fair) and a Black Friday game (Bears vs. Eagles) that takes on higher importance now. That’s actually the highlight of the week as the best Sunday can offer is Bills-Steelers, Texans-Colts, and I can’t believe they’ve stuck with Broncos vs. Commanders for SNF. One of those nights I start writing even earlier. Then Giants-Patriots on MNF, which isn’t the most compelling way to start December.

NFL 2025 Week 12 Predictions: As the AFC Turns Edition

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

We’re only one game into NFL Week 12 and it’s already a big result as the Houston Texans (6-5) proved they have the best defense this season, and they’re finally above .500 for the first time this season and back in the playoff hunt.

Meanwhile, I warned Buffalo fans all offseason that they would have to deal with turnover regression while not doing a ton to really improve the roster of a team that feasted on fumble recoveries, a schedule that saw them go 2-3 against winning teams, superior field position, and a historically low number of negative plays on offense that never felt sustainable with a quarterback known for his gunslinger ways.

Did I still ultimately buy into the Buffalo hype and predict them to finish as the No.1 seed? Yes. But I never had them going to the Super Bowl this year, and after Thursday night’s loss, it sure looks like they’ll have a hard time winning three straight road games to get there as the Patriots (9-2) are the team that’s taking advantage of an even easier schedule (3 games vs. 4th-place teams compared to first-place schedule) and should win the division.

But nothing is decided yet as we continue to see this weird AFC season where the Patriots, Colts, and Broncos have the best records, and it’s not looking good for the Ravens, Chiefs, and Bills to win those divisions and maybe not even make the playoffs in 2025.

We get a huge game in Kansas City this weekend with the Colts (8-2) coming off a bye week. I did a little preview in the NFL picks piece below for that one, but it’s such an intriguing matchup as the Colts have a lot of things in their favor:

  • Colts use a lot of play-action passing, which the Chiefs have been horrible against on defense.
  • Colts have Jonathan Taylor in peak mode, and the Chiefs have allowed James Cook to rush for over 100 this year.
  • Defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo has been one of the best at making things difficult for Mahomes and the offense.
  • Ability to play man coverage vs. KC wideouts with Sauce Gardner and Charvarius Ward (back healthy).
  • Colts had a bye week to prepare for the Chiefs, who have been labeled as predictable in recent losses to Bills and Broncos.

Alas, the Colts have been giving up sacks lately, and the Chiefs need to dial up blitzes and rely on the crowd noise to bother Daniel Jones, who was listed with a calf injury this week. Does his mobility get compromised and that leads to some sacks and takeaways for a KC defense that plays much better at home? We’ll see. Offense also needs to run the ball more when given so many light boxes, and they have ran it well in the last two meetings with Anarumo’s Bengals defenses.

It’s a huge game as a win can legitimize the Colts even more in the AFC. It could also spark the Chiefs to go on a run all the way through the postseason too. A lot on the line.

I wish that game was on at 4:25 PM as I’ll be stuck watching Bears vs. Steelers, which has a one-score game written all over it even if Aaron Rodgers doesn’t play. I’m thinking he will though since it is his last crack at the Bears and the injury isn’t to his throwing hand. But that’s a tough game with the leading defenses in turnovers, and that’s another pivotal one as the Steelers winning as a road underdog would be another blow to Baltimore’s hopes of storming back from 1-5 to win the AFC North.

This Week’s Articles

2025 NFL Quarterback Rankings Week 12: The Chiefs Are Failing Patrick Mahomes in a Down Year for Quarterback Play
Scott’s Seven NFL Picks: Week 12

In the QB rankings this week, I talk about how the Chiefs are failing Patrick Mahomes by going in the opposite direction of QB dependence in a league that is increasingly about making it easier on the QB. Also talked about the sobering losses for the Seahawks and Lions as you just can’t trust Sam Darnold and Jared Goff in big games.

For the picks, I got a Colts-Chiefs parlay, and I say go nuts and bet on the sack props in Raiders vs. Browns.

NFL Week 12 Predictions

Yeah, I thought the Bills could win by a TD, but at least I was right about the under.

NE-CIN: It sounds like Joe Flacco is going to start again instead of Joe Burrow. Not sure I’d change my pick there because I think without Ja’Marr Chase, it’ll be hard to keep up with the Patriots when Cincy has the worst defense in the NFL.

PIT-CHI: Like I said, I think it’s a very close game, and the Bears have been pulling those off this year better than Pittsburgh. Just feels like a Tomlin letdown spot on the road.

NYJ-BAL: Unless I read a parody account, it sounds like Justin Fields has been benched for Tyrod Taylor. Good news. Ravens should still win but I like a backdoor cover for the Jets.

SEA-TEN: I just can’t see the Titans topping 14 points here unless Darnold keeps throwing picks to give them short fields. Seattle should bounce back here.

NYG-DET: No Jaxson Dart. I think the over is a good pick as the Lions should pile up points on a horrible defense in the dome. Less confident in the spread as Jameis could be good for the backdoor.

MIN-GB: Packers haven’t covered these big spreads all year, but from what I’ve seen of J.J. McCarthy, he isn’t going to play well on the road in Lambeau. Give me GB to finally cover one.

IND-KC: Ah, I hedged with the classic Chiefs win but don’t cover. Colts really could win it outright, but I’ll give the Chiefs one more bone at home in a virtual must-win situation. But the Colts have been a thorn in their side for 30 years.

CLE-LV: I’ll take Maxx Crosby and the Raiders to win the sack fest.

JAX-ARI: No real vibe on this one. Think Brissett moves the ball better than Lawrence and the Cardinals find a way at home.

ATL-NO: Another one I don’t have any strong lean for. Falcons are due a win. Turn the offense over to the run game and sack the inexperienced QB in his 3rd start.

PHI-DAL: I like the Philly offense to get on track against that defense and for the Philly defense to slow down Dak and those receivers.

TB-LAR: McVay usually has a good feel for what Bowles is doing. Still not enough weapons for the Bucs. I’ll take the Rams at home by 7.

CAR-SF: Biggest game for the Panthers in years. I think they can keep it close but I like a low-scoring game here.

2024 NFL Stat Oddity: Week 14

~ Scott ~ 2 Comments

Maybe it wasn’t supposed to be a hugely consequential day in the 2024 NFL season, but Week 14 felt like a big one with the Chiefs (12-1) getting some cushion in the AFC after the Bills were upset by the Rams in the shootout of the year that was still a wire-to-wire win for Sean McVay’s team. The Chiefs also came through with yet another close win to clinch the AFC West for the ninth year in a row.

The Steelers also took care of business against the Browns, so that Week 16 game in Baltimore can win them the AFC North regardless of what happens in Week 15. But we’ll worry about that game when it’s here.

We had eight games with a comeback opportunity, and so far, no team came back from a double-digit deficit to win this week. Could that mean more trouble for the Bengals against Cooper Rush in Dallas? We’ll see.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Bills at Rams: The Puka Nacua Show

If you’re a fan of the Rams, you have to be wondering where the hell was this offense for coach Sean McVay when they couldn’t even score a single touchdown at home against Miami on MNF in Week 10. That could still be the loss that keeps them out of the playoffs, but they turned heads with this strong offensive performance against Buffalo in a stunning 44-42 win.

Right from the opening drive, it was clear they came prepared for this one. But while the running game looked good early, it became much more dependent on Puka Nacua making incredible catches to extend drives for Matthew Stafford.

As for the Bills, it was wild to see how this usually dominant team could not stay ahead of the Rams. They had nine possessions in the game and here’s what happened with the scoring margin at the beginning of each:

  • Down 7-0, 1-yard Josh Allen touchdown run
  • Down 10-7, blocked punt returned for touchdown (17-7) after three straight Josh Allen incompletions
  • Down 17-7, 41-yard touchdown on a screen pass
  • Down 24-14, punt before halftime
  • Down 24-14, 3-and-out to start third quarter
  • Down 31-14, 51-yard touchdown pass to Khalil Shakir
  • Down 38-21, 1-yard Josh Allen touchdown run
  • Down 38-28, 21-yard touchdown to Mack Hollins
  • Down 44-35, 1-yard Josh Allen touchdown run

That means the Bills only had the ball one time the entire game where they trailed by fewer than 7 points, and that was the damaging 2nd drive when they punted quickly and it was blocked for a huge touchdown. They found themselves trying to chase that all day, and despite getting two huge touchdowns on YAC plays, they still couldn’t force the Rams into enough stops to get the ball back with a chance to ever tie or take the lead.

The Rams are usually not great in closing games out under McVay, especially in the 4-minute offense. But he had a plan for this one. Instead of kicking a long field goal to try to take a 6-point lead with several minutes left, he did the smart thing by going for it. The Rams got away with a false start, but Stafford was able to find Tutu Atwell for a huge 11-yard gain with the clock moving down near 3:00.

The old McVay kicks the field goal there and relies on his defense. He learned something here, or maybe Sunday was just a really great day for him, his offense, and Nacua. Fittingly, it was Nacua who capped off the drive with a 19-yard touchdown. But after the Rams missed the extra point with 1:54 left, there was a slight door open in a 44-35 game.

The Bills got down the field quickly thanks to some penalties, but it was  on 1st-and-goal at the 1 with 1:06 left where they made a serious error in strategy, the latest blunder in the Sean McDermott era. The Bills tried to run Allen on the sneak again, a play that he was 3-for-5 on in this game at the 1. But you can’t be doing that, not scoring, and burning a precious timeout at 1:02 to run it again.

In his career (regular season), Allen has 20 touchdown runs from the 1-yard line and 9 touchdown passes from the 1. It’s clear which strategy he feels more comfortable doing, and that number is only 16 touchdown passes if we extend to the 2-yard line as well. He wants the higher-percentage play in the run instead of trying to find a throwing lane that tight in or risk another sack.

But in this particular spot, you really don’t have the time to be running the ball because of that fear of getting stopped and wasting too much time. You have to avoid using any timeouts, because you want to avoid doing the onside kick or at least avoid having to recover one to have a realistic shot. By taking the timeout at 1:02, that meant it was going to come down to the onside kick recovery. Tom Brady, who sounded worse than usual as he was losing his voice, was all over this strategic failure, the latest blunder for the Bills in the McDermott era in a loss.

Allen eventually got his touchdown run, his third of the day to go along with three touchdown passes, a stat line that only Otto Graham put up in the 1954 NFL Championship Game. But that’s why I said on Twitter that they were trying to pad Allen’s stat line with the easy, high percentage score of a run so people can inflate the value of this 3+3=6 stat instead of sticking to a needed strategy of making a throw in this spot, which is usually going to be tougher than someone sneaking over the line for a yard. Again, Allen’s success rate from the 1 on that play here was only 3-for-5 on Sunday.

Sure enough, they made it come down to the onside kick, which they didn’t recover. The Rams ended up punting and the clock expired at the end of the punt. All those points and touchdowns for a wire-to-wire loss where the Bills never even had the ball in a one-score game after the blocked punt for a touchdown early in the second quarter.

I’ve been very critical of McVay in games like this in the past, but he was mostly on the money with his approach here. He outcoached McDermott and the Bills, and Nacua and Stafford were outstanding.

If this propels the Rams (7-6) to a division title run by running the table, then it takes on even more significance. But the Bills gave up a huge opportunity to the Chiefs with a game in Detroit to come next, and with the way that defense is banged up, it could be another 44-42 game.

Will the Bills fall short in that one too? They’re only 2-2 against current playoff teams this year. As for Allen’s MVP odds actually improving from -250 to -450 after a loss, there’s always later in the week for another article on that. I need sleep.

Chargers at Chiefs: Another AFC West Wrapped Up

Like Spotify, the Chiefs were mailing in their AFC West Wrapped for 2024. Another 19-17 victory against a division rival? Just type up the script and send it in. Maybe add a doink FG by the backup kicker to end this one with a little spice.

But it was business as usual for the 2024 Chiefs, which means a win, which means a weekly fraud alert by social media for the “worst 12-1 team ever.” But I would say it’s alarming that the games are playing out so similarly as the 2020 Steelers and 2023 Eagles started falling into familiar scripts before their collapses too. The Chiefs are in a much better spot than those teams and have the track record to believe in them, but you can’t keep blowing 13-point leads this quickly every week, you can’t keep giving up so many pressures and sacks on Patrick Mahomes, and you have to remember to run the ball.

A lot of these Kansas City issues were on display even with new left tackle D.J. Humphries, who left the game with a fourth quarter injury. Pretty bold move to go empty backfield with Wanya Morris back at left tackle, but they made it work out.

Mahomes didn’t play his best game, but he also threw his best pass of the night to DeAndre Hopkins on a 3rd-and-16 with the Chiefs trailing in the fourth quarter, and for the second week in a row, the veteran did not make the catch in a big moment. He had an excuse of the defender hitting him this time, but you still have to hang onto a pass that would have made it first-and-goal. The Chiefs settled for a 50-yard field goal from backup kicker Matthew Wright, and he was good.

But the Chargers held the ball for 8:29 before settling for their own field goal to regain a 17-16 lead with 4:35 left. Justin Herbert was missing his only reliable receiver in Ladd McConkey and his best running back in J.K. Dobbins. That certainly made the job easier for the Chiefs, but once again, they struggled to get any takeaways in a game that didn’t have any again on either side. The only turnover in Kansas City’s last three games was the fumbled snap by the Raiders on Black Friday.

This was also a low-possession game with 9 drives for each quarterback. But after Herbert took the lead, he never saw the field again on a night where he played decently with 213 yards. Even Quentin Johnston made a few nice catches and caught a touchdown.

But in leading his seventh game-winning drive of 2024, Mahomes again used his legs to deliver decisive plays like the 3rd-and-10 conversion to Xavier Worthy. At the 2-minute warning, the Chiefs faced a hug 3rd-and-7, because giving Herbert the ball back there may mean you never see it again in a loss. But Mahomes again scrambled, dodged a sack, and found a waiting Travis Kelce for the conversion.

From there, it was just a matter of setting up the field goal as the last snap. Wright came on and bounced the kick off the left upright before it deflected in okay for the game-winning kick. The Chiefs have won the AFC West nine years in a row, trailing only the record set by the 2009-19 Patriots (11).

The Chiefs are 12-1 and “Chiefs win by 1-13 points” is literally 12-1 as a bet this year. The only other team to win 12 games by 1-13 points in a season was the 2004 Steelers, another record the Chiefs could break with ease this year.

Maybe the Chiefs can throw in a twist next week in Cleveland and introduce some defensive takeaways to the mix courtesy of Jameis Winston.

Panthers at Eagles: Xavier Legette? More Like Leggette Your Ass a Bus Ticket Home After That Drop

If you’re a fan of the Carolina Panthers, this month should be the most optimistic you’ve felt about the team since 2018, if not longer ago. While they didn’t get the win in Philly as a 13.5-point underdog, this should be remembered as the day where Bryce Young was about to lead a 97-yard game-winning touchdown drive against a stingy defense, and Xavier Legette did this:

https://twitter.com/MySportsUpdate/status/1865862520889618860

I thought he had it live. But after that huge drop, there was a delay of game penalty, and Young eventually threw incomplete on 4th-and-9 to end the game, a 22-16 punch to the gut after it looked like Young did everything right.

Jalen Hurts had a really rough passing day (108 passing yards and 4 sacks), but the running game produced 209 yards with 124 yards to Saquon Barkley. Go figure, I had 125 as my bet, and it probably happens if the Eagles didn’t have a penalty on 2nd down while they were hanging onto their one-score lead, causing them to throw more.

But the Eagles (-13.5) never led by more than 6 points, and even that only happened early in the fourth quarter after Hurts threw a short touchdown pass. Not the most impressive win for the Eagles by any means. They lost the pass-rush battle to Young and the Panthers.

Damn near lost the game too. Pittsburgh gets a shot next.

Falcons at Vikings: Sam Darnold’s Day to Shine

I rarely say this, but I felt kind of bad for Kirk Cousins in Minnesota this week. This was going to be his big revenge game, and while he struck early, it was Sam Darnold who shined with 347 yards and 5 touchdown passes.

After Cousins tied the game at 21 with a touchdown and 2-point conversion with 39 seconds left in the third quarter, by the next time he took the field, it was a 35-21 deficit and barely half a quarter remained. The special teams coughed up a fumble on the ensuing kickoff after Darnold’s go-ahead touchdown pass to Jordan Addison, who caught 3 on the day to go along with a pair for Justin Jefferson.

Then with the clock not in his favor, Cousins’ pass was intercepted by one hand by Byron Murphy with 6:26 left. The Vikings added yet another touchdown in the 42-21 rout that was tied at 21 to start the quarter.

The Falcons (6-7) have lost the division lead to the Buccaneers (7-6), so we’ll see where things go from here, but it’s not looking good for preseason favorite Atlanta.

Browns at Steelers: No Pickens, A Few Problems

I’d be lying if I said the Steelers didn’t have any issues without George Pickens, who was a surprise inactive on Sunday morning due to a hamstring injury suffered late in the week. But the Steelers’ issues early had more to do with the players they were targeting rather than the players they should get involved with Russell Wilson in Pickens’ absence.

Once they started throwing to them, we saw production with Mike Williams down the field and tight end Pat Freiermuth had a good game with 48 yards and a touchdown. But Wilson only threw for 158 yards this week.

This game was also decided by Chris Boswell being a much better kicker than Dustin Hopkins, who missed from 38 and 43 yards. It wasn’t even that cold here Sunday, so he had even less of an excuse for those misses. Throw in a big Jameis Winston pick on a double-clutched screen that led to a short-field touchdown to get the Steelers going, and it was a team loss by the Browns.

You can’t beat the sight of Kadarius Toney (the one and only) muffing a punt with 2:53 left in a 27-14 game. He’s always trying to destroy games for his teams. But the Steelers were able to get to 10-3 and avoid their first sweep at the hands of Cleveland since 1988.

Seahawks at Cardinals: I Guess Geno Owns Arizona?

I know I’m not the only one struggling with these NFC West teams this year. The Seahawks took the first game 16-6, so I figured the Cardinals would play better offense at home and steal this one for the split.

Welp, I didn’t realize the Seahawks are now on a 7-game winning streak against the Cardinals with Geno Smith 6-0 as a starter in those games. Arizona has struggled to score in these games, and that was the problem again after an opening-drive touchdown was followed by a pair of Kyler Murray interceptions.

Meanwhile, it was a clean game for Geno without any sacks or turnovers. Zach Charbonnet was sharp with 134 yards and 2 touchdowns in a starring role without Kenneth Walker available.

But the Year of the Kicker falling apart around the league did Arizona in too here. Down 27-18, they rightly settled for a 40-yard field goal with half a quarter left. But it was off the goal post from kicker Chad Ryland, a big miss. He was the bust the Patriots drafted in 2023 and they got rid of after one season. He was doing better for Arizona this season, but that one stings.

The Seahawks burned valuable time and added a field goal to get to the weird 30-18 final score. The game ended with Murray taking a sack deep in the red zone and the Cardinals long out of timeouts since they used them so early in the quarter in an arguably reckless way.

But it’s looking more likely by the week that the Seahawks (8-5) are going to emerge from this division as the winner. But they do play the Packers and Vikings next, so it’s far from over.

Jets at Dolphins: A 14th Straight Postseason Without the Jets

Aaron Rodgers (339 yards) finally had his first 300-yard passing game since 2021, and it still wasn’t enough to avoid a fifth blown lead in the fourth quarter this season for the Jets. This time they are officially eliminated from the playoffs with a 3-10 record.

They were up 23-15 in the final quarter, but Tua Tagovailoa had the hot hand again against this defense, and he found Tyreek Hill on a fourth-and-4. Even after the Jets took a late 26-23 lead, they went backwards on consecutive plays on that drive to make sure the Dolphins would have time left to answer, and instead of getting a touchback, Miami’s long kick return out to the 46 made it a lot easier to get the game-tying field goal for overtime from 52 yards out.

The Dolphins won the coin toss and went on offense. Even though tight end Jonnu Smith has been a revelation in this offense in the last month, he didn’t have a catch until overtime. They found him on back-to-back plays (the same play, in fact) for 20 and 14 yards, then he also finished the drive with a 10-yard touchdown to win the game 32-26.

We’re starting to see a lot more 300-yard passing duels in recent weeks, but Tagovailoa took the best Rodgers could do and one-upped him at the end for the win. Miami (6-7) is not dead yet but must keep on winning every week to have a shot at the last wild card.

Bears at 49ers: Well, It Wasn’t ALL Matt Eberflus

Normally, I’d expect a little bump in performance in the first game after a team fires its terrible coach, but I also expected a bounce-back performance from the 49ers (-3.5) in this game against Chicago. I had no idea it’d be 24-0 with the 49ers outgaining the Bears 319-4 in yards in the first half. That’s not a typo.

It got a little closer in the second half, but not even Kyle Shanahan’s mastery of blowing leads could make this one interesting. Caleb Williams fumbled on a Tuck Rule play, except the Tuck Rule is long gone. The 49ers held on to win 38-13, and we’ll see if it’s too little too late to save their season at 6-7.

Saints at Giants: No Field Goal Is Safe Anymore

We can talk about Drew Lock starting 0-for-8 or Derek Carr throwing the first interception by the Giants since Sam Darnold in Week 1, but do you really care at this point?

What’s interesting here is that the Saints blocked a 35-yard-field goal in the final seconds when it looked like the Giants were going to force overtime in a 14-11 game. It was very similar to the endings with blocked field goals in Chiefs-Broncos and Packers-Bears this season. That’s three times for something we rarely ever see.

I think that adds some great, legitimate intrigue to these moments. If you look at the way they blocked the kick, you wonder why we don’t see this a little more often. It feels more doable than recovering an onside kick these days.

Raiders at Buccaneers: Your Average Baker Rollercoaster

There’s some Jameis to this Baker Mayfield season in Tampa Bay. After two early touchdowns to build a 14-0 lead, this one lingered into the fourth quarter after Mayfield turned it over three times in the second quarter.

But the Raiders lost another quarterback to injury with Aidan O’Connell getting an air cast on his leg, and I can only hope it had to do with a previous injury getting worse, because the hit I’m seeing that “caused it” makes it look like contact sports won’t be for him.

Desmond Ridder replaced him for the fourth quarter of a 14-10 game, but he went three-and-out before the Buccaneers put it away with back-to-back touchdown drives in a 28-13 final that was misleadingly lopsided? Or maybe it was fittingly accurate. I don’t know anymore with teams like this. I just know the Raiders almost never win these games anymore.

Jaguars at Titans: No Longer a TNF Special in December for People to Ignore

Remember when they’d throw this game on a Thursday night in December when people probably wanted to go Christmas shopping or something? Well, let’s be glad they have some higher standards these days for Amazon Prime paying out the ass for these games. No one wants to watch a 10-6 shitfest between Mac Jones and Will Levis.

But I really thought this was the one game all season where you could trust Will Levis, who wasn’t horrible the last month, to put up some points and stats at home in an “easy win” against Mac Jones. And yet, it was a 10-6 comeback win as Jones improved his 4QC/GWD record to 3-14 in his career.

Levis had his chances to answer, but some laxed route running by Calvin Ridley and no special catch by Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (no longer under the radar) in the red zone led to a turnover on downs. The offense never got the ball in the end zone and now both teams are 3-10. Terrible stuff and probably one of the lowest-rated Titans-Jags games of all time.

Next week: The big one (Bills-Lions) loses some luster with the Buffalo loss. But that helps bolster Rams-49ers a bit on TNF to start the week and you might as well call that a playoff game since the loser should be done. We’ll see if the Chiefs can actually get some turnovers from Jameis Winston in Cleveland. Is Steelers-Eagles really going to be on the same time as Bills-Lions? Would prefer to see those at different times. Packers-Seahawks is solid for SNF. A weak MNF double-header (Bears-Vikings and Falcons-Raiders) to end it. Desmond Ridder Revenge Game? Ugh.

NFL 2024 Week 13 Predictions: Running Back Showdown Edition

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

This has already been an eventful Week 13 in the NFL with four games over Thanksgiving and Black Friday that led to the firing of head coach Matt Eberflus, a move you just had to make after one of the worst cases of clock management in NFL history.

But Antonio Pierce is also one of the worst coaches in close games, and he showed us why against the Chiefs on Friday when his team had a chance to pull off its own shocking upset. Of course, the people who know nothing about the rule book are going to complain about illegal shift being a dead-ball foul (it’s not), pretend a whistle was blown before the KC player recovered the ball (it wasn’t), and harp on a ref signaling false start as if we’ve never seen a line judge get something wrong, a conference corrects it, and they ultimately got the right call. Maybe just don’t snap the ball early and choke next time? Hell of a time for the Chiefs to finally get a takeaway though. I might need to fire up Part 2 of the Manning vs. Brady LOAT series after that one.

But that’s why we love the NFL. On paper, the Lions and Chiefs had easy games to get to 11-1, and yet both needed the worst coaches in close games to fumble badly (or literally) with the game on the line just to get the wins. Meanwhile, Dolphins-Packers was supposed to be the best game on paper, but it had the lowest drama and was easily won by the Packers. Of course, it’s an easy call that a Mike McDaniel team will come up small on the road in a big game like that. He’s now lost 12 or 13 straight road games to playoff teams (13 if Seattle qualifies this year; 12 if only Buffalo and Green Bay do).

That’s their thing. As for Sunday, we still have the big one in the late afternoon with the Eagles and Ravens, a game that will matter a lot for the MVP and OPOY races as well as division races and seeding.

This Week’s Articles

NFL Week 13 Predictions

I guess trusting the Chiefs to win a game by 13 points is insanity or else I could have been off to a perfect 4-0 ATS start to the week. At least the Chiefs held a 13-point lead in the third quarter. They just blew it in a matter of minutes to Aidan O’Connell. Christ, where is this season heading? At least we know swapping in a different left tackle could fix that problem, but what do they do about the defense? They’re getting shredded by some of the worst quarterbacks in the league on throws outside the numbers and down the field.

Anyways…

LAC-ATL: Justin Herbert has a pair of 20-17 wins over the Falcons in his career, and that sounds about right for what the Chargers are in 2024. Atlanta has been tough to figure out too, but I think this game will inevitably be close. But with the Chargers losing to the Ravens and having the Chiefs next week, I just don’t see them losing three in a row under Harbaugh here.

IND-NE: I was going to say it feels like eons ago since the Colts beat the Patriots, but of course there was the Bailey Zappe fake spike INT in Germany last year in a 10-6 game. While I still don’t trust the Colts with Anthony Richardson, that NE defense is bad enough that he could have a good game here and I’m going to trust the defense to keep the score down enough.

HOU-JAX: I wouldn’t advise betting real money on the Texans right now. Just something off with that team in many ways right now, and they already struggled to get the first win over this Jacksonville team, which is getting Trevor Lawrence back. But if they can hold him under 60% completions again, that’s his formula for losing.

SEA-NYJ: Does anyone realize the Seahawks haven’t scored 21 points in any of their last four games? I think the Jets can get Geno to make some mistakes and pull this one off coming out of the bye week. As much as we want to pretend Aaron Rodgers is playing terrible football this year, he’s serviceable enough to still get a win in a 20-17 type of game. Just don’t count on his kicker to make the last field goal.

PIT-CIN: This is where Mike Tomlin prefers to be: Counted out as a road underdog while people still hype the 4-7 Bengals going on a run. Sure, it could happen, but I’m going to trust the Steelers to bounce back in better weather, the Bengals are the one defense they actually moved the ball on when Matt Canada was the OC, and I’ll always trust Russell Wilson over Joe Burrow in a tight game. T.J. Watt also has to make up for a no-show in Cleveland.

TEN-WAS: I’m hedging with Titans covering and Commanders winning (maybe). Will Levis has been hitting some deep balls and this is a defense you can do that against. Still, I’m not betting on Calvin Ridley, who is on the banned list.

ARI-MIN: Gut says the Vikings can hit big plays against Arizona’s underwhelming defense, and you never know what to expect from Kyler Murray. Avoid a Sam Darnold pick parade and the Vikings should have this one, something you can say about most of their games this year.

TB-CAR: Panthers are playing better and you hate to trust any spread this big for the road team in a divisional game these days. But I think Mike Evans returns to the end zone and Bucky Irving has a good game. They won’t make Bryce Young look as good as the Chiefs did last week.

LAR-NO: Again, I’m going to keep taking the Saints in small spreads like this at home where they’re an underdog to a team that just got destroyed by Saquon Barkley. Imagine if Taysom Hill gashes them next. Plus, I’m still waiting for that first 4QC win for Carr in New Orleans. We have to get at least one in two seasons, right?

PHI-BAL: Here’s the big one with Lamar Jackson/Derrick Henry vs. Jalen Hurts/Saquon Barkley. I think you have to go with the Ravens at home as Lamar is 23-1 against the NFC, and Nick Sirianni hasn’t faced him yet. He played a Fangio defense last year (MIA) and threw 5 touchdowns. Threw for over 300 yards against Fangio’s Broncos too. Henry will be up for this one with the Barkley MVP hype that he hasn’t personally received this year. Also a bad week for Eagles to not have Darius Slay (concussion) and may not have DeVonta Smith either. We can say the Eagles are playing better defense than Baltimore this year, and I might trust Hurts more than Lamar at closing the game, but I don’t think you can bet against the Ravens at home in this one. Eagles have been beating up on non-playoff teams during this win streak.

SF-BUF: The SNF game that could have been epic, but we’ll see with these SF injuries. It does sound like Brock Purdy might play, so that’s a good thing. But the Bills are not a team that likes to win close, and they already have a 9-point win over the Chiefs this year. I think they can win by a touchdown here and drop the 49ers to 5-7. But hopefully the 49ers play with some real urgency in this one. Their playoff hopes are slipping every week and their blown leads have arguably more to do with that than the injuries, which have been terrible as well.

CLE-DEN: Not a great game to close the week. But I think Jameis can make enough throws to keep it close or get the backdoor cover.