Tag: Bears

NFL Stat Oddity: Week 18

~ Scott ~ 4 Comments

Just like that, we have made it through all 272 regular-season games in the 2023 NFL season. In Game No. 272, the Buffalo Bills pulled off a stunning turnaround from 6-6 to 11-6 and the No. 2 seed, coming back to win the AFC East for the fourth year in a row on a day the Patriots officially hit rock bottom as we likely saw the last of Bill Belichick on the sideline there.

The Steelers and Packers are back in the playoffs. We have a division with only winning teams for the first time since 1935. The winner of the NFC South is (barely) above .500 this season.

And not one goddamn tie all season, a huge win in my book.

As for the Week 18 drama, there were only 9 games with a comeback opportunity, but they were focused in the right games with playoff implications like Steelers-Ravens, Texans-Colts, Jaguars-Titans, Bears-Packers, and Bills-Dolphins.

But before we recap the final 16 games of the regular season, this is my favorite time to review how my preseason predictions for final team records fared. I put in a ton of work on these over the summer as I ended up doing 3 articles per team, so there was a lot of research to come up with fresh angles even if I was ultimately arriving at the same conclusion for each team.

Despite some concerns, I am happy to say I was off by an average of 2.06 wins, my 2nd-most accurate predictions since 2013. I nailed 6 teams to their exact record, including both No. 1 seeds, and I was within 2 games for 21-of-32 teams. I could have had 8 teams with an exact record, which would have been my personal best, but that damn Drew Lock touchdown drive against the Eagles in Seattle did me in. Likewise, I never imagined Patrick Mahomes would give the Raiders 14 points in 7 seconds on turnovers at home on Christmas.

There were 4 teams that I was off by 5-to-6 games for, and you can probably guess one as I made them a huge part of my season story, only to see that go up in smoke after 4 snaps in Week 1:

Yep, I had Aaron Rodgers leading the Jets to a 12-5 record and the No. 5 seed, essentially swapping places with the Dolphins, who I had getting swept by the Jets and finishing 9-8 and out of the playoffs. So much for that when his Achilles tore in Week 1. I’m not sure the Jets would have been an elite team this year with that line and struggles to run the ball, but I think the playoffs were certainly doable with Rodgers.

The first-year success of the Colts and Texans definitely took me by surprise in the AFC South. Missed badly on both of those teams, but I don’t think I’m alone in that. C.J. Stroud was kind of the bland rookie quarterback in this class. Anthony Richardson had the “wow factor” with the ability to run (but apparently his durability slider was turned off). Bryce Young was supposed to be this Improv Short King, but he only got his coach fired after 11 games and Carolina had one of the worst seasons ever. Stroud just hit early and was so impressive in that Bobby Slowik, a Kyle Shanahan disciple, offense with receivers that took a huge leap forward like Nico Collins and rookie Tank Dell.

As for the Rams, my initial thought on them was they’d be a sneaky wild card team this year with Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp, and Aaron Donald coming back healthy. But once I started digging into the roster, I had no clue who most of these other 50 guys were. Puka Nacua? Never heard of him. Kyren Williams? Who cares? But it was Puka stepping up early, Kyren coming around later, and this offense looks strong, and the defense has been respectable despite the massive turnover. Great job by Sean McVay and company to get to this point.

Those were my biggest misses, but for a season that I billed as the year of uncertainty, I’m proud of these results overall. Roughly a quarter of the league had a season-ending injury to their primary quarterback. Only 9 teams started the same quarterback in every game (lowest since 1999). A couple of playoff teams (Steelers, Bills) fired their offensive coordinator more than halfway through the season. It was a challenging season filled with blowouts in big matchups and so many low-scoring games on Sunday and Monday nights.

But I am ready for the playoffs, and my playoff picks in the AFC are what I’m most proud of as I can’t imagine many people nailed the top 3 seeds going the way they did, especially with the Bengals favored in the AFC North and the Chiefs favored to repeat, and I also had the Steelers getting the No. 7 seed with a 10-7 record.

  • 1, Baltimore (13-4)
  • 2. Buffalo (12-5)
  • 3. Kansas City (12-5)
  • 4. Jacksonville (10-7)
  • 5. NY Jets (12-5)
  • 6. Cincinnati (11-5)
  • 7. Pittsburgh (10-7)

My NFC picks were far less stellar, only getting 4-of-7 teams right (all fairly obvious ones), and none in the right seed.

  • 1. Philadelphia (12-5)
  • 2. San Francisco (12-5)
  • 3. New Orleans (12-5)
  • 4. Detroit (9-8)
  • 5. Dallas (12-5)
  • 6. Atlanta (9-8)
  • 7. Minnesota (8-9)

The Saints and Falcons were the teams I was high on because of the schedule, but they blew that golden opportunity. Hats off to Tampa Bay for overcoming the fact that they had to play the Eagles, Bills, and 49ers (went 0-3 in those games too) and the other NFC South teams didn’t, and Tampa still won the division. I liked Baker Mayfield to have a better individual season than Tom Brady did in 2022, but I figured he wouldn’t catch the breaks in close games to have a better record. But Baker surprisingly kept the turnovers low and they got to 9-8.

Finally, I think the Vikings are a playoff team if Kirk Cousins doesn’t tear his Achilles, so chalk that up to an Achilles injury in each conference screwing me up here. Cousins was playing some of his best ball when that happened, so we had to experience some fever dreams with Joshua Dobbs and Nick Mullens. Too bad. At least the close-game regression was real as the Vikings played a league-high 14 close games but only finished 6-8 in them a year after they were 11-0.

But we’ll have other opportunities to review the season and where things stand. Let’s get through these 16 games before I get into playoff mode.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

AFC EAST

We had one game for the division title and the other for a 15-game winning streak to come crashing down as Bill Belichick just had to fvck me out of a $$$ parlay win one last time.

Bills at Dolphins: The Paper Tiger Disintegrates

From 6-6 and the No. 11 seed at the bye week to 11-6 and the No. 2 seed going into the playoffs, no one circled the wagons like the Buffalo Bills this season. The numbers were always there when they were 6-6 with a scoring differential of over 100 points. Just stop turning the ball over so much and stop blowing these fourth-quarter leads in egregious fashion like the Denver game where they had 12 men on the field for a field goal that was missed, or when they let Mac Jones lead the single clutch touchdown drive of his career.

But the Bills pulled off this AFC East title with some help from the Dolphins, who choked away a Week 14 game to the Titans that I would call the worst blown lead of 2023. Then the Dolphins were blown out 56-19 in Baltimore a week ago, continuing their pattern of underperforming on both sides of the ball in big games, especially on offense and on the road. They have also been injured with some key players (Jaylen Waddle, Raheem Mostert, Bradley Chubb, Xavien Howard, etc.) missing this game.

But the Bills have their own injuries to deal with, and even in this game, the Bills tried desperately to throw this game away with 3 more turnovers from Josh Allen, who also botched the end of the first half with a completion short of the goal line with the Bills out of timeouts. No points there to go along with the turnovers all happening deep in Miami territory.

The Buffalo defense had Allen’s back in this one. After Allen’s lost fumble killed another scoring chance in a 14-7 game to end the third quarter, the defense forced a quick punt from the Dolphins. Deonte Harty returned that punt 96 yards for a game-tying touchdown with 13:42 left.

Allen led a go-ahead touchdown drive with 7:16 left while the Dolphins had another quick 3-and-out drive. Allen looked like he could put the game away on his own terms instead of putting it in the defense’s shaky hands again. He had an incredible 15-yard scramble on a 3rd-and-13, then the Bills faced a critical 4th-and-1 at the Miami 37 at the 2:00 warning.

I’m not kicking a 55-yard field goal unless maybe I have Justin Tucker as my kicker. Tyler Bass hasn’t earned that kind of reputation for me. I also hate to trust a defense that has already blown 4 leads in the fourth quarter, and you know Miami is more likely to go for a game-winning 2-point conversion than your average team would. No, I’m going to trust my insane quarterback to run up the gut for that first down on the sneak.

Except the Bills tried that and Allen was stopped short by the slimmest of margins. Oh well, I liked the decision anyway. Now it was on the defense, and after a couple of shaky snaps, they almost came away with a pick. On the very next play, they got the pick as Tua threw an awful pass that was picked off by Taylor Rapp with 1:13 left to seal the division title.

The Bills were definitely looking shaky for the playoffs, let alone the AFC East when they were 6-6. But this 5-0 streak has been built on mostly close wins outside of the Dallas rout. This was the fourth time since Week 14 that Buffalo won a game by no more than 7 points. They had 2 such wins in their previous 13 games.

Now the Bills get to host the Steelers, a favorable draw for the wild card round. Then perhaps they will host Kansas City for a change in the divisional round. This isn’t the best Buffalo team since 2020, but maybe it’s the year things fall in place for them. They are winning the close games, Allen is playing great when he’s not turning it over (he was 30-for-36 for 359 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 67 rushing yards outside of the turnover plays), and they are one of the best defensive teams.

The field also contains the weakest Kansas City team in the Patrick Mahomes era and a Baltimore team that has blown it in January before. Maybe this run propels the Bills all the way, or maybe they lose to Mason Rudolph next week.

Either way, it will be must-see TV. The Bills always belonged in this tournament and now we get to see if they can make it pay off.

Jets at Patriots: Hoods Up

Christ, you know it’s over when Belichick is losing a 17-3 snow game at home to the Jets. There goes the 15-game winning streak against the Jets. It was bound to end this year, but we thought that’d be at the hands of Aaron Rodgers, not a 70-yard passing performance from Trevor Siemian.

The conditions looked brutal, and I can’t imagine many players were enjoying themselves on that field. But it meant a little more to the Jets knowing about the 15-game losing streak and how this was expected to be Belichick’s last game as coach of the Patriots.

Bailey Zappe had 31 net passing yards on 37 pass plays thanks to the 7 sacks the Jets ripped through the line for. Just when you thought Belichick had one last fluke of a win in him after a Zappe interception was fumbled back to the Patriots with 2:44 left in a 9-3 game, Zappe made sure his next throw was intercepted too. Breece Hall hit the 50-yard “FU TD” and that was a wrap at 17-3. With a 4-13 record, Belichick finishes the worst season of his coaching career.

We’ve seen the Patriots without a quarterback. Now we’ll see how long they go without a quarterback and without a coach. That stay in the AFC East basement may be longer than this one season.

AFC SOUTH

We didn’t know for sure Saturday night, but that was the de facto division title game thanks to the Jaguars blowing it on Sunday in Tennessee. C.J. Stroud runs this division now until the Colts can keep Anthony Richardson healthy.

Jaguars at Titans: Full Collapse Revenge

Last year, it was the Titans collapsing with a 7-game losing streak to blow the AFC South after a Week 18 loss to the Jaguars. This year, the Jaguars were 8-3 before collapsing with a 1-5 finish, only beating the Panthers last week. That means Trevor Lawrence lost his final 5 starts of the year.

This game wasn’t all on him as the Titans put on a spirited home effort with Ryan Tannehill and Derrick Henry perhaps playing their final games for the Titans. Henry rushed for 153 yards and a touchdown.

The Jaguars trailed 28-13 going into the fourth quarter and needed a miracle. After a touchdown pass to Evan Engram, the Jags intercepted Tannehill and set up Lawrence 28 yards away from a tie. But all the inefficiencies in this Jacksonville offense from Lawrence’s inaccurate throws to bad runs to penalties led to a terrible drive that consumed 5 minutes off the clock and ultimately came up empty on fourth down at the 1-yard line. Lawrence tried one of the worst quarterback sneaks you’ll ever see as his initial lunge (a la Drew Brees) was well short, then his stretch didn’t get the job done either.

Lawrence got the ball back with 2:18 and 75 yards to go, and he couldn’t even get a first down. He missed a deep shot to an open Calvin Ridley, then threw wildly inaccurate again on a 4th-and-2 to Engram with 1:47 left. Season over. Jags (9-8) were finished.

Even at 8-3, I had a hard time trusting this Jacksonville team as a serious contender. Maybe they finish the job in the AFC South if Lawrence never gets hurt against the Bengals in Week 13, and he did have multiple injuries since to deal with. But even before that, his play wasn’t vastly improved from last year, and the Ridley connection wasn’t the greatest. Losing Christian Kirk hurt this offense more than gaining Ridley helped it.

Now with the way Houston has finished this season with C.J. Stroud, the Jaguars are going to enter 2024 as second-class citizens in the division they never really owned. They took advantage of Tennessee’s 2022 implosion, and the Titans made sure they got them back on Sunday by taking them out for 2023.

But if a certain quarterback in Indy stays healthy and pans out, both of these teams could be looking up to those other teams for years to come. I think 2024 is the year Lawrence will finally start getting held to a higher standard, and with the day soon coming when we start talking about a second contract, I think it’s in Jacksonville’s best interest to wait that one out.

Texans at Colts: Can’t Be Worse Off at Quarterback and Defense 

This was a game I immediately flipped on my spread and total picks for last Monday night. I’m talking straight up deleting what I was writing and going the opposite way before sending them in.

Changing to the under was a good move, but taking the team (Colts) that was worse at quarterback and defense in a big game during this time of year? What was I thinking? Week 2 when the Colts won 31-20 was eons ago. Hell, Anthony Richardson started that game. What did it matter now?

But this game was there for the taking for Indy on Saturday night. They just fell short, and they did it in a way that has me nervous about Shane Steichen in the big moments next time. But the game also reinforced the idea that he won’t be ready to compete for real in this division until he has a healthy Richardson who can go toe to toe with C.J. Stroud in a game like this. Gardner Minshew was not up for it.

Stroud came out throwing a haymaker with a 75-yard touchdown pass to Nico Collins on Houston’s first offensive snap. But despite that brilliant throw, the Houston offense was being contained, and the Colts got back into it by riding their best player, Jonathan Taylor. He finished with 188 rushing yards and a 49-yard touchdown run that helped tie the game at 14 in the third quarter.

But for all of Taylor’s dominance, it only did further damage to getting Minshew in any sort of rhythm where they could rely on him down the stretch. Note that right after Taylor’s long touchdown run, the Colts dialed up 5 straight runs, then asked Minshew to convert a 3rd-and-9. He couldn’t get a completion, and the Colts missed a 57-yard field goal off the upright. That short field for Houston led to the Texans taking a 17-14 lead on a 51-yard field goal.

After the Colts tied the game, Stroud went to work on a surgical drive in the final quarter. He threw for 82 yards on the drive, which was capped off by a 3-yard run from Devin Singletary. The Texans missed the extra point, leaving the door open for the Colts at 23-17 with 6:20 left.

But make note of the difference in strategy for these teams. While the Texans relied on Stroud, who only got any production out of Collins and tight end Dalton Shultz, the Colts could not rely on Minshew to drive them down the field. It was going to be the run game, which took a hit in efficiency with an injury along the offensive line to Braden Smith. Taylor also temporarily left the game injured and did not look as great down the stretch.

In the last 1.5 quarters, the Colts ran the ball 16 times for 27 yards with a 25% rushing success rate. Eleven of those 16 carries failed to gain more than 2 yards, and the longest run in that stretch was 6 yards.

Minshew was able to hit Josh Downs for a 28-yard gain to get the drive going, but the Colts continued to rely on the run, even choosing to run on 3rd-and-6 and 3rd-and-5 situations that almost every team calls passes for. One such run worked thanks to a penalty on Houston (automatic first down) and the other did convert at the 2-minute warning with the Colts looking to score the touchdown as late as they could.

But everything went to shit after the 2-minute warning hit. The Colts called 2 more Taylor runs, and he went out of bounds both times, burning a total of 12 seconds, saving timeouts for Houston, and setting up a 3rd-and-2. That is counter to the clock strategy if you’re so concerned about not leaving Stroud time to answer in an expected 24-23 game after the touchdown and extra point.

Taylor got the call again on 3rd-and-2 and came up a yard short, setting up a huge 4th-and-1 at the Houston 15. Instead of having a play to run quickly like another Taylor run or a quarterback sneak, the Colts let the clock go down to 1:06 and called a timeout.

What the hell? There’s burning the clock and then there’s taking so damn long that you just blew your shot of getting another possession in case you don’t get this. If you get stopped around 1:20 with 3 timeouts left, at least you can quickly create another possession. But by blowing that timeout, Steichen put the game on this 4th-and-1, and he was still 15 yards away from the end zone on what was not a good night for his offense.

Worse, Taylor came off the field for the pivotal play, and after calling 7 straight runs, now they decided to let Minshew throw to a backup running back in Tyler Goodson, a player with 6 career catches who had no touches on the night.

While the play was there, the throw wasn’t, and Minshew and Goodson failed to connect. The Texans ended up running it three times, taking an intentional safety, and the Colts tried to lateral around the free kick before the game ended. Season over for Indy and Texans in the playoffs.

I really don’t care if he thinks the running back was open and it was a good play. You can’t put your quarterback and cold running back in that spot after calling 7 straight runs. That’s the kind of throw a Drew Brees could make with a blindfold because he is so used to passing throughout the whole game. He’s in rhythm. He’s also much more accurate than Minshew, but the whole process there after the 2-minute warning was mind-blowingly bad.

You can try playing the clock game, but don’t play yourself. The Colts botched this badly and now another season is over short of the postseason. They better hope Richardson stays healthy and can do plays like the Tush Push a la Jalen Hurts, because that’s a sure conversion if Steichen had his Philadelphia guys on that one.

NFC NORTH

The Lions suffered a big injury (Sam LaPorta) on their way to another win over Minnesota that still left them with a No. 3 seed. The Packers closed this time at home in Week 18 to make the playoffs behind a stellar game from Jordan Love and the 3rd-down defense.

Bears at Packers: Matt LaFleur Moves to 10-0 vs. Chicago

I spent more time in the summer researching the Bears than any other team. I landed on a prediction of 7-10 and behind the Packers, who I had finishing 8-9 in Jordan Love’s first season as the starter.

Well, the Packers got to 9-8 thanks to sweeping the Bears in Weeks 1 and 18. It was good enough for the playoffs too just as it would have been last year when the team lost at home to Detroit in the final game of the Aaron Rodgers era.

But Matt LaFleur simply owns the Bears. He is now 10-0 against them and every win has been by at least 7 points. Jordan Love was fantastic in this game, completing 27-of-32 passes for 316 yards, 2 touchdowns, and no picks. He did lose a fumble on a scramble that left the game in some doubt, but the Bears remain one of the worst comeback teams in NFL history under Matt Eberflus and Justin Fields, and they were not able to erase the 8-point deficit in the final quarter.

That doesn’t mean the Packers made it easy in this quick-moving game (2 hours and 35 minutes). There were only 13 possessions in the entire game, and the Packers  wasted a pair in the first half when they missed a short field goal and failed to get one off to end the half, a mental error by the offense.

Fortunately, the Bears never got the ball in the end zone as the Green Bay defense stepped up with 3 sacks on third downs. Their fifth sack of Fields came on a 2nd-and-16 after the Bears reached Green Bay territory, stifling that drive as well. The Packers got the ball back with 6:08 left, and between good runs and smart throws by Love, they ran out the clock on Chicago to secure their playoff berth.

I don’t know if the Packers are a real threat to Dallas right now. But it makes sense that they were a team that improved in the second half of the season given not only Love’s inexperience but just how little experience the rest of the offense (minus running backs) had going into the season. We probably didn’t hammer that point home enough, and it’s not like this is about developing Christian Watson (disappointing year) and Romeo Doubs. It’s been Jayden Reed, a 2nd-round rookie, and Dontayvion Wicks who have been very productive this year. Reed had 112 yards in this game and Wicks caught both of Love’s touchdowns.

Even Bo Melton, a 7th-round pick from 2022 I never even heard of until a week ago, has come on just in time for Green Bay. He had 105 yards and a touchdown against the Vikings last week and another 5 catches for 62 yards in this game.

The Packers are making it work with Love, who finished second in the league with 32 touchdown passes this year. Tale as old as time, the Packers look better off than Chicago at the quarterback position, and that no doubt played a big difference in the latest Green Bay sweep. This could have been the Bears in the 9-8 wild card position if they had stepped up more against the Packers this year.

Now with the No. 1 pick (thanks, Carolina) and the No. 9 pick, we’ll see what the Bears do at the most important roles on the team.

Vikings at Lions: Offense Shines in Pyrrhic Victory

I can understand why the Lions went full pedal this week. They had a very outside shot of getting the No. 2 seed if the Cowboys and Eagles choked (one did). Still, you get nervous playing your studs in a game like this, and sure enough, the Lions lost tight end Sam LaPorta to a hyperextended knee. He’ll likely miss this playoff run unless it reaches the Super Bowl, and even then, we’ll see.

But it is cool to see Detroit win 12 games, something it only did in 1991, the last season the Lions won a playoff game. This game was a lot like the Week 16 win over Minnesota with Nick Mullens approaching another 400-yard day, but he also threw a couple of big picks again. Jared Goff and the offense shined with all the studs scoring touchdowns (LaPorta, Jahmyr Gibbs, David Montgomery, and Amon-Ra St. Brown).

But LaPorta is a dimension they’ll miss at tight end when they take on the Rams this Sunday night.

NFC EAST

The streak continues. There has not been a repeat winner in the NFC East since the Eagles in 2001-04. Their collapse this year was something to behold, but not necessarily that much of a shock if you paid attention to how they got to 10-1 and how the Cowboys were good at blowing bad teams out.

Cowboys at Commanders: About What You Expected

With a 38-10 win, the Cowboys won the NFC East, secured the No. 2 seed, and notched their 9th win of 20-plus points this year, tying the 1999 Rams for the second most in a season in NFL history. Only the 2007 Patriots (10) had more 20-point wins, and it might be worth noting that neither those Patriots nor Rams won any playoff games by more than 12 points. But they did at least get to the Super Bowl those years with the Rams winning it all.

Dak Prescott has owned Washington his whole career, Sam Howell was lousy down the stretch of 2023, and it’s no surprise the touchdown pass leader threw 4 more scores against the worst defense this year. Ron Rivera should be gone on Monday.

About the only thing that didn’t go well for Dallas was kicker Brandon Aubrey. After making his first 35 field goals this season, he had one blocked from 32 yards and another miss off the upright from 36 yards. Let’s hope that isn’t a sign of the things to come in the playoffs for him after an almost-perfect season.

The Cowboys have high expectations for this postseason now that the Eagles have faded to the wild card, and the only team that’s ahead of Dallas in the standings is San Francisco. We’ve already seen the Cowboys beat the Lions, controversial ending or not.

Time to turn all these fancy numbers into some playoff wins, Dallas.

Eagles at Giants: Viking-Ass Team

On the day the Eagles improved to 10-1 with an overtime win over Buffalo, I said they look more like the 2022 Vikings than they do the 2022 Eagles. The 2022 Vikings are the only team in NFL history to win more than 11 games with a negative scoring differential.

Several people (read: Eagles fans) didn’t like the tweet at the time, but I can only call them when I see them. The 2023 Eagles are my greatest case of fraud detection since the 2019 Patriots started 8-0. The Eagles limped to a 1-5 finish, getting blown out by the 49ers and Cowboys in big games, embarrassing themselves against Drew Lock (Seahawks) and the Cardinals, and now a 27-10 rout at the hands of the lowly Giants.

The Eagles just barely finished with a positive scoring differential (+5), but it is still the 5th lowest for a team with at least 11 wins in NFL history:

The latest loss is the result when your defense continues to get shredded as Tyrod Taylor threw for 297 yards, and the offense suffers too many injuries. DeVonta Smith and D’Andre Swift were already out to start the game. A.J. Brown soon joined them with an injury. Jalen Hurts injured his finger and eventually left the game early after the score grew to 24-0 and the Cowboys were up big on Washington, making the No. 5 seed a near certainty for the Eagles.

Plenty of days to cover the Eagles-Bucs game, so no need to start writing the same narratives I’ll be leaning on this week here. But let’s just say things are trending terribly for this team and it would be a real shock if this led to another deep playoff run from Philly.

NFC SOUTH

The Saints took too long to heat up on offense this year, and their playoff bid came up a game short as Tampa Bay was able to take care of business in Carolina, which completed one of the worst seasons in NFL history.

Buccaneers at Panthers: Back-to-Back Shutouts for Carolina

It was ugly but the Buccaneers leaned on their defense and the fact they were playing one of the worst teams in the Super Bowl era to pull out a 9-0 win and the NFC South title for the third year in a row.

Baker Mayfield was hurting throughout the game but at least he still threw for over 100 yards, unlike Bryce Young who finished with 94 yards, and nearly half of that came on a 42-yard pass to D.J. Chark that was fumbled through the end zone, a game-saving and possibly season-saving play for the Bucs in this one.

Carolina’s kicker situation wasn’t great this year, and after missing a 52-yard field goal to end the third quarter, the Buccaneers turned that good field position into a 39-yard field goal and a 9-0 lead with 10:18 left.

If you’ve been following the Panthers this year or really the last 5 years, you know that’s basically an insurmountable lead for this team. The Bucs forced a strip sack and the offense ran out the final 6:19 to clinch the division with a 9-8 record, which is better than 8-9 the last I checked. At least one Florida team wasn’t going to blow the division title this Sunday.

The Panthers finish the season with 2 wins and 0 snaps with a fourth-quarter lead. Both wins came on walk-off field goals.

  • Even the 1976 Buccaneers (0-14) blew 1 4th-quarter lead.
  • Even the 2008 Lions (0-16) blew 4 4th-quarter leads.
  • Even the 2017 Browns (0-16) blew 1 4th-quarter lead.

The Panthers are the first team since the 2008 Browns to get shutout in consecutive games. Carolina, you were truly awful this year.

Falcons at Saints: Hit the Road, Art

This game was my favorite over (42.5) of the week as both teams moved the ball very well when they met earlier this season. I just didn’t think the Saints (48 points) would cover the over themselves after a little “fvck you touchdown” to end it that set off Arthur Smith at midfield:

https://twitter.com/NFLonCBS/status/1744103230500422103

After another 7-10 season with baffling usage of his offensive players and failing to take advantage of a weak schedule, this is the end of the road for Smith in Atlanta. The team barely waited until midnight to announce his firing.

What a way to go out, a 31-point loss to your main rival and that little tantrum. Do I think he had a point about the Saints rubbing it in with barely a minute left in a 41-17 game? Yeah, I think that was weak. But he could have expressed it better than this.

Derek Carr threw 4 touchdowns and finished the season strong, but it was just too late after a slow start for the offense. The 9-8 record wasn’t good enough for the playoffs, and you can look a that 1-point loss in Green Bay as the decisive one since that’s what got the Packers ahead of New Orleans. The Saints missed a late field goal in that one as Blake Grupe showed some serious choker DNA. Basically, if they kept Wil Lutz as their kicker this year, they’d probably be in the playoffs.

But both teams should be ashamed of not taking advantage of their schedules. They lived up to the expectations of not having many Super Bowl contenders. Hell, even the Jaguars didn’t get to 10 wins and that was supposed to be one of their hardest games alongside Detroit.

AFC NORTH

The Steelers started Week 18 needing a win in rainy Baltimore, and no one really cared about anything in Browns-Bengals except for the outfit worn by Jake Browning’s girlfriend. That backup is winning in life.

Steelers at Ravens: Sweep the Top Seed but Lose to the Pats and Cardinals (Obviously)

When the Steelers nearly turned the ball over 3 times on the opening drive, you could tell the rain was going to be a significant factor. In the end, each team lost 2 fumbles, but the Steelers had an extra 4 fumbles that they did not lose.

Mason Rudolph still managed to complete 18-of-20 passes in the rain, but 71 of his 152 yards came on a short throw to Diontae Johnson that was mostly YAC for the game-winning touchdown to break a 7-7 tie to start the fourth quarter. Is that the kind of play that happens if the Ravens had Marlon Humphrey and Kyle Hamilton playing in the secondary? Hard to say, but it gives Rudolph 3 touchdown passes of 60-plus yards this year, which is behind only Tua Tagovailoa (4) for the 2023 lead. That’s an absurd but true stat. I’m not convinced that means Rudolph is the long-term answer at quarterback, but some of it does speak to his willingness to give these receivers chances that I think Kenny Pickett lacks in his game right now. That’s why I’d start Rudolph in the playoffs.

And yes, there will be playoffs after the Jaguars blew it in Tennessee and punched Pittsburgh’s ticket early on Sunday. Unfortunately, the Steelers are unlikely to have T.J. Watt after friendly fire took him down with an MCL injury in this game. It’s considered a multiple week injury, but you know he’ll at least lobby to play. Just can’t see that being a smart move or ultimately allowed by the team.

It deserves an asterisk for the rested starters (not to mention the dropped passes in Week 5) but the Steelers did sweep the top-seeded Ravens and were the only team to beat them by more than 3 points this year. If Pittsburgh somehow did pull out a win next week and went to Baltimore for the divisional round, that could be amusing as Lamar Jackson has been I the league since 2018 and has literally never had a good game against the Steelers. He rarely plays them too, but Pittsburgh has been getting the upper hand in this rivalry. But good luck getting past the wild card round.

Browns at Bengals: Still the Coach of the Year

Why exactly did the Browns start Jeff Driskel at quarterback? Felt like Kevin Stefanski, who should still win Coach of the Year, wanted to show off and win a game with a 5th different quarterback this year. But Driskel was dreadful, the Bengals led 31-0, and only in garbage time did Driskel deliver a couple of touchdown throws. But hey, Browns over 13.5 points still hit.

The game did make some history though as the 2023 AFC North is the first division since the 1935 West to have nothing but teams with a winning record. The Bengals finished 9-8 and the other teams all won at least 10 games and made the playoffs.

NFC WEST

Not as many stakes here as the 49ers and Rams rested key starters, but both games had a fourth-quarter comeback with the winning team converting a 2-point conversion in a 21-20 final.

Rams at 49ers: The Rare Carson Wentz Comeback

It’s kind of fitting that a Carson Wentz-led comeback of 13 points in the second half against a No. 1 seed would only happen in a game where both teams were not all that interested in winning. If the Rams truly cared about making sure they won and got the No. 6 seed, they would have started Matthew Stafford, Kyren Williams, Aaron Donald, and maybe Cooper Kupp.

They did play Puka Nacua, who stayed in long enough to set the rookie records for yards and catches in a season. He also caught a helpful touchdown from Wentz, who ended up running 17 times for 56 yards and a touchdown. I guess Sean McVay didn’t really care since this could be one of the last auditions that Wentz gets as a starter in the NFL.

But the 49ers didn’t score on their 4 second-half possessions, the Rams took the lead on a touchdown drive that got jumpstarted with a 48-yard flag for defensive pass interference, and Sam Darnold was unable to set up a field goal for the 49ers, who will be content with the bye week.

But it is a bit concerning that the 49ers are 1-4 in close games and 0-4 at 4QC/GWD opportunities. This will come up during the month in playoff previews, but you’re just not likely to get through a whole Super Bowl run, even if it’s 3 games long, without beating someone good in a close game. This team will have to show it can do that and it’s not like we don’t have years of evidence in San Francisco of Shanahan-coached teams not stepping up in these moments. This loss didn’t matter, but the next time the season will be on the line.

But good for the Rams getting to 10 wins as I really wanted to pick them as a dark horse for the wild card this summer, then I got scared away after not recognizing their roster outside of Stafford, Kupp, and Donald. Really good effort from McVay and company here. And we get to see the perfect wild card matchup in Detroit next Sunday night.

Seahawks at Cardinals: Matt Prater’s Lousy Day

Congrats to James Conner for clinching his first 1,000-yard rushing season in the NFL. He was my favorite prop pick in Week 18, and he delivered in a big way with 150 yards on the ground and 54 more through the air.

It’s just too bad the Cardinals let it go to waste as well as a sweet trick play on a field goal for a touchdown pass from Kyler Murray to Trey McBride to take a 20-13 lead in the fourth quarter.

Matt Prater could have basically iced the game with 3:00 left on a 43-yard field goal that would have made it 23-13 after the Seahawks used their final timeout, but the normally reliable kicker missed. The Cardinals folded like a cheap suit on defense, and in just 4 plays, the Seahawks were in the end zone on a 34-yard touchdown from Geno Smith to Tyler Lockett, who also caught the 2-point conversion to go up 21-20 with 1:54 left.

At this point, it was already clear from Green Bay that the Packers were winning the game and going to the playoffs, keeping Seattle out. That probably influenced the 2-point call too.

The Cardinals still had plenty of time to answer, but after a Conner run to the 30, they botched the end game. Not quite as bad as Steichen and the Colts on Saturday night, but still pretty bad with Murray running out of bounds on a play that took time and went down as a 2-yard sack. Then a Conner run lost a yard.

Prater can blast kicks from 50-plus yards, but he was already shaky on the previous kick and again failed to deliver on the 51-yard game-winning field goal as time expired. The Cardinals finish 4-13 and will have some decisions to make. The Seahawks, who will finish with a league-high 6 game-winning drives, are 9-8 again, but this time they didn’t get the help from Green Bay losing at home to get in a tournament they were unlikely going to advance in past next week.

AFC WEST

Stakes? No, nothing to see here.

Broncos at Raiders: Nope, We Don’t Care

The Raiders won 27-14 as both teams finished 8-9. Next.

Chiefs at Chargers: Easton Stuck in Goal to Go

The Chiefs set milestones aside and rested Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce (among others) with the No. 3 seed a lock. Easton Stick somehow dropped back 63 times, including 13 runs for 77 yards, in a weird game for the Chargers, but they blew it inside the 5-yard line early and late. A Stick fumble was scooped up for a 97-yard touchdown return, then the Chargers couldn’t get it in late and settled for a field goal to take a 12-10 lead. Backup starter Blaine Gabbert had enough legs for a couple of scrambles to set up a game-winning field goal (13-12), and the Chargers of course had no answer in the final minute.

The 2023 Chargers finish 1-10 at 4QC/GWD opportunities and lead the league with 5 blown leads in the fourth quarter. The Chargering brand is still strong.

Next week: It’s the playoffs. I’ll have links to in-depth previews and betting picks (props, upset pick, computer picks, etc.) for every game. The real fun might not start until the divisional round, but there are still plenty of stories from these games. With the way this season has gone, who knows, the Super Bowl teams may be in action on wild card weekend.

NFL Stat Oddity: Week 11

~ Scott ~ 10 Comments

Week 11 in the NFL has been quite good, but hopefully the best is still to come Monday night with Eagles-Chiefs. As for Sunday, we saw suplexes, the craziest comeback of the season took place in Detroit, a game that arguably defines the Justin Herbert era in Los Angeles, and the week you started wondering if Tommy DeVito was a better quarterback than Kenny Pickett. My God, how I miss the days of Big Ben and Eli.

But we’ll rip on Kenny Pickett a few times below. There were better games than that this week, including a solid Sunday night game that saw Russell Wilson move into a tie for 8th place in fourth-quarter comeback wins. Hours earlier, Matthew Stafford moved into a tie with Dan Marino for sixth place on the same list.

Week 11 has 8 games with a comeback opportunity so far. I’m going to need some extra time to prepare for Monday night, so this is going up before 4 a.m. and I look forward to what comes of this next game.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Bears at Lions: Never in Doubt

This may be the kind of game we expect to see the Bears lose these days, but it’s usually not a team like Detroit on the winning end of things. Whether they forgot how to face Justin Fields, were looking ahead to Thanksgiving this Thursday against Green Bay, or looking back too fondly of how great they played on offense in Los Angeles last week, this was a trashy performance that needed the comeback of the season to salvage for a 31-26 win.

Jared Goff threw two interceptions in the first half, it could have been three, and it turned into three in the third quarter while the Lions were trailing 20-14, having just fumbled a kickoff that led to D.J. Moore catching a 39-yard touchdown.

This was looking rough all around, but the Bears gave them a little opening in the fourth quarter. After the last Goff pick, the Bears had a drive that extended into the fourth quarter and saw Chicago face a 4th-and-1 at the Detroit 23 with 14:15 left. I think you go for the jugular and go for that one, hoping to make it a 28-14 game with less time on the clock. Instead, the Bears went safe and kicked a 40-yard field goal to make it 23-14.

Detroit still went three-and-out thanks to Montez Sweat killing the drive with a sack. The Bears grinded almost 9 minutes off the clock with what should have been a game-clinching drive. Fields had a 29-yard scramble that put him over 100 yards on the ground on the day, but the Bears did stall out eventually. They kicked a 39-yard field goal on a 4th-and-5 with 4:15 left to make it 26-14. At least that field goal was more defensible since it was 4th-and-5, and it made the Lions have to score two touchdowns to win the game.

With only 4:15 left, it is very hard to manufacture two scores (at least one being a touchdown) to win a game in the NFL. It has now only happened 28 times since 2001, and somehow this is the third time since 2020 that it’s happened in a Bears-Lions game:

Goff got his playmakers involved and Jameson Williams was open on a 32-yard touchdown with 2:59 left. That quick strike only needed 76 seconds. The Bears played right in Detroit’s hands with a run-run-incomplete 3-and-out drive, and Goff had an eternity left with 2:33, a timeout, and 73 yards to drive.

This was David Montgomery’s revenge game, his first against Chicago, and it wasn’t going so well to this point. But he looked determined on this drive with gains of 13, 12, 9, and 10 yards on the ground and on receptions. It was Jahmyr Gibbs who had a pivotal run to the 1-yard line with 31 seconds left when the Bears took a timeout, sensing what was coming next.

Sure enough, Montgomery got his Hollywood script ending and scored on the 1-yard touchdown run with 29 seconds left. Rookie tight end Sam LaPorta, on his quietest day of the season, caught a key 2-point conversion to make it 29-26.

Chicago still had two timeouts, so it was doable. But as I’ve said before, Fields might be the worst quarterback in NFL history at getting a field goal in the clutch. On the first snap of the drive, Aidan Hutchinson got to him and forced a fumble, which was eventually kicked thru the end zone for a safety. Detroit won 31-26, completing the wildest comeback of the 2023 season.

Fields is now 1-14 at fourth-quarter comeback opportunities. The Bears just never seem to be able to put these games away under Matt Eberflus.

It is an exciting win for Detroit, a great story for Montgomery, but it may be a wake-up call that they need to start playing better. The only complete performance over the last month was against the Raiders. The whole team was wiped out in Baltimore, the defense didn’t show up against the Chargers, and this game featured a lot of spotty play in every unit, but Goff’s turnovers were probably the biggest red flag. But he managed to redeem himself against a team known to blow games just like this.

A lot still has to happen before we respect the Lions as a team that wins games like this, but they are 8-2 and keeping up with the Eagles and 49ers in the NFC standings.

Chargers at Packers: A Full Helping of Chargering

Is it possible for a game to go as you expected but still be surprised by the outcome? That was this game for me.

The Packers were my upset pick, and I talked about Jordan Love throwing multiple touchdowns at home for the first time in his career against this bottom-ranked passing defense so that he could break this 7-game streak without Green Bay scoring 21 points. That all happened and he even had the first 300-yard passing game of his career. I also predicted it to be a tight, one-score game, or the usual Chargers game on a Sunday afternoon.

But the level of Chargering in this one was truly something special. Justin Herbert finished with 260 yards and 2 touchdown passes, and he even led the game with 73 rushing yards. It was in a way one of the best games of his career, but the numbers won’t back that up because his skill players short circuited a handful of likely scoring drives. They started the game with a drop on 4th-and-4, Keenan Allen dropped a touchdown early, Austin Ekeler fumbled at the 2-yard line in the fourth quarter, and rookie Quentin Johnston dropped a pass down the sideline on a crucial 3rd-and-6.

It would not have been a routine catch, though I bet Zay Flowers, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and Jordan Addison make it, but it was very catchable. If caught, it either could have been the game-winning touchdown, or since Johnston doesn’t look that fast on an NFL field, it could have at least set up a game-tying field goal for overtime. Would the Chargers have made the kick? Probably not, because these are the Chargers we’re talking about.

I didn’t even mention the Packers were about to be screwed with a 4th-and-20 coming up with under 4 minutes left, but Asante Samuel Jr. was penalized 24 yards for defensive pass interference, extending what became the game-winning drive. Love threw a 24-yard touchdown pass to Romeo Doubs with 2:33 left. Herbert had a moment of mortality with a quick three-and-out after he was sacked on third down. But the Chargers got the ball back after using their timeouts to stop the run, and that was when Johnston had the big drop with 23 seconds left. The game ended for good when Herbert’s 4th-and-1 pass was incomplete with the Chargers out of timeouts.

Herbert’s QBR (82.9) was the highest for any quarterback to lose in Week 11. It was the highest (82.0) in Week 10 against Detroit out of all losing quarterbacks. This is a consistent theme with the Chargers.

Herbert may not be perfect, but the people trying to blame him for these last two weeks for the Chargers slipping to 4-6 are out of their mind. This is already the third lost comeback of the 2023 season for Herbert, who also led go-ahead touchdown drives in the fourth quarter in losses to the Dolphins and Titans to start this season. While not a lost comeback, he also had game-tying touchdown drives against Dallas and Detroit in games the Chargers still lost.

Looks like I need to start up a new Chargers BINGO card for the Herbert era.

Vikings at Broncos: The Close Game Regression Bowl

When the 2023 schedule came out, I highlighted this game as a big regression opportunity between the team that kept making comebacks last year (Vikings) and the team that kept blowing leads (Broncos). That’s why I had this as a Denver win in my preseason predictions.

Sure enough, the Vikings blew a late lead and are now 5-5 in close games of which they’ve played a league-high 10 of. Last year, they were 11-0 in the regular season in close games. Denver is only 4-3 in close games, but that includes a 4-3 record at game-winning drive opportunities, which isn’t bad at all in a season where under 35% of those are successful.

We have enough history to show that if you give Russell Wilson enough chances, he can make you pay. This was his 34th fourth-quarter comeback win, which ties him with Johnny Unitas and John Elway for the 8th most all time.

I don’t know if the Vikings got premature news on Justin Jefferson’s health or what, but their game plan did not seem right to me. Not nearly enough passes to T.J. Hockenson and Jordan Addison, and they ran the ball 28 times with the running backs, which is also unusual. You had to figure it was going to be a weird night once the Vikings gave a direct snap to T.J. Hockenson on the third play of the game, and he gave the ball to Joshua Dobbs, who fumbled. Did I mention this was to just convert a 3rd-and-1?

But speaking of regression, what is going on with this Denver defense and turnovers? That’s now 12 takeaways in the last three games with another 3 in this game. That was mostly the difference as Minnesota’s offense was better outside of those mistakes. The Broncos were under 300 yards of offense again and they were 2-for-12 on third down.

But what did Denver do? Kept making those field goals, hung in there to get enough turnovers, and down 20-15, Wilson was able to lead his lone touchdown drive of the night to win the game. Courtland Sutton and Samaje Perine were huge on the game-winning drive, which was completed with more end zone stretching highlights by Sutton for a 15-yard touchdown with 1:03 left.

However, Denver failed on the 2-point conversion, so it was only a 21-20 lead with Minnesota having all its timeouts left. The legend of Dobbs could have really grown here with a game-winning drive, but the Vikings got really caught up in a short-yardage situation after Jordan Addison ran out of bounds 1 yard shy of a first down. That led to the Vikings having to burn 2 timeouts, and this was not moving along well. Pressure got to Dobbs, and he was called for intentional grounding, which set up 4th-and-25. Not surprisingly, his deep ball was incomplete, and the Broncos held on for another tight win this week.

Minnesota’s (6-5) 5-game winning streak is over, and the Broncos (5-5) are on a 4-game winning streak. I don’t know if either team is playoff worthy, but close game regression has hit each appropriately this year.

Steelers at Browns: Half the AFC North QBs Go Down and Kenny Pickett Is Still the Worst

It feels like Sunday was a breaking point for many who were still believers in Kenny Pickett after this 13-10 loss in Cleveland to a backup rookie quarterback (Dorian Thompson-Robinson). I’ve always been skeptical of Pickett as a franchise quarterback, and this game was one of his worst yet. He was 15-of-28 for 106 yards, and he took 3 sacks for another 29 yards. That’s 77 yards on 31 passes. That’s nothing.

More than that, Jaylen Warren carried this offense to all 10 of its points, starting with a 74-yard touchdown run after the Steelers were scoreless at halftime. While DTR was not great for Cleveland, I think it says a lot that his coaching staff let him throw 43 passes in such a low-scoring, tight battle. In fact, Cleveland is only the third team ever to throw at least 43 passes in a game it never trailed, a game that didn’t go to overtime, and where they allowed no more than 10 points while scoring no more than 13 points. It only happened in 2007 Ravens vs. 49ers and 2004 Dolphins vs. Browns.

DTR definitely had some accuracy issues, but he was not afraid to let the ball go, and he was accurate late in the game in leading a game-winning field goal drive after Pickett went three-and-out in a drive that only took 24 seconds.

More drives like that and I don’t see how the Steelers don’t go shopping for a quarterback after the season. It’s one thing to be generally lousy in the game like the opening sack he took that should have been a safety where he looked like he had no awareness. It’s one thing to be lousy at scoring points. But if your reputation of coming through in the clutch is going to lead to drives like the last couple in a 10-10 game in the fourth quarter, then you are just wasting the team’s time. You bring nothing to the table.

While watching this game, I was flipping back to the RedZone channel during commercials and saw a rookie like C.J. Stroud move in the pocket, set his feet, and fire bombs to give his guys a chance or threading the needle on dimes to the sideline while under pressure, and I turn back and there’s Pickett with 34 yards at halftime. Only a net of 15 if you take off the sacks. There’s no comparison. And it’s not just Stroud. I could see it in Week 1 when Brock Purdy, the last pick in a 2022 draft that saw Pickett go ahead of every other quarterback, vastly outplay him.

Even Tommy DeVito threw 3 touchdowns for the Giants on Sunday after he had 2 last week against Dallas. He’s up to 6 touchdowns or as many as Pickett has in 10 games this season. Come on.

I will say Najee Harris has the right outlook on things, noting that the Steelers aren’t going to keep winning by playing poorly like they have been.

The Steelers were outgained for the 10th time this year. There were signs of fool’s gold with their 7-2 finish after last year’s bye week, but at least the 2022 Steelers can say they outgained their opponent in yards in 8 of their last 9 games.

This year’s offense is a joke, and while Matt Canada was taking almost all of the criticism early, people may finally be able to see the quarterback is a huge problem too.

Huge problem.

Buccaneers at 49ers: At Least It Wasn’t 35-7 This Time

Brock Purdy must like playing the Buccaneers. He made his first NFL start against them last year, led Tom Brady’s team 35-0, and on Sunday, he had a rare perfect passer rating (158.3) game with 21-of-25 for 333 yards and 3 touchdowns. He did take 4 sacks to help keep that number intact, but it was one of Purdy’s best games with Brandon Aiyuk having a monster game with 156 yards and a touchdown.

Christian McCaffrey started a new touchdown streak right away in the first quarter, and the 49ers largely rolled along to a 27-14 win. Not as dominant as last year’s meeting, but Baker Mayfield was better than the King of Kings. He just wasn’t able to finish drives off in the red zone in the fourth quarter as the Buccaneers had a couple of long marches stall in a scoreless final 14 minutes.

The 49ers (7-3) could certainly use a Philadelphia loss this week (at Kansas City) or next (vs. Buffalo) to further build the hype when they meet in Week 13, the Game of the Year in the NFC.

Jets at Bills: Buffalo Not So Much Back as Jets Are Good as Gone

The Bills won their first game after firing offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and it was fairly convincing as the 32-6 score suggests. But was it really?

Could Dorsey have called a 3-and-out drive that lost 9 yards to start the game after the Bills forced a fumble on the opening kickoff? The Bills still got a field goal out of it, but the offense went backwards. On the second drive, Stefon Diggs had a fumble go out of bounds, so the new OC must be better at using his mind to teleport the ball out of bounds unlike Dorsey on Monday night against Denver.

But the Bills were held to three field goals before another short field (23 yards) presented itself after a Zach Wilson interception. That made it 16-0. The only turnover of the game for Buffalo was a Hail Mary interception thrown by Josh Allen to end the half, but I’m sure that’ll fuel someone else’s narrative on this team.

The Bills (6-5) played fine against an unraveling division foe that benched its quarterback for Tim Boyle in this game. I just think Dorsey was a scapegoat and this one game doesn’t prove anything either way, unless you think the Bills will get 81-yard touchdown passes to Shakir more often now. After all, it’s only the 2nd completion in Allen’s NFL career of more than 75 yards, and that should be credited to the OC, right?

Meh, whatever. We’ll see what happens in Philadelphia next week.

Seahawks at Rams: Not Feeling the Field Goal

It was a little surprising to see the Seahawks blow a 13-0 lead in this one, because the Rams did not look good. Matthew Stafford was having a rough day, Cooper Kupp misjudged a deep ball for a touchdown, and left the game injured. But Kenneth Walker was injured for the Seahawks, and Geno Smith was hurt on a hit that almost led to an interception on a pop-up.

The Rams hung in there while the Seahawks kept settling for long field goals, which would ultimately doom them. Drew Lock’s entry into the game in the final quarter did not help. He had a three-and-out drive and an interception.

The Rams finally came to life with a touchdown run by Darrell Henderson, then after the Lock pick, Stafford took over at his own 21, got bailed out of a 3rd-and-15 with an illegal hands to the face penalty, and the Rams bled the clock down to 1:31 after kicking a 22-yard field goal to take a 17-16 lead.

That’s plenty of time for Seattle to answer, and even better, Geno replaced Lock at quarterback. D.K. Metcalf ended his little touchdown drought earlier in the game, and his 21-yard catch to get the ball inside the 40 looked like a game-changing play. At that point with under 35 seconds and no timeouts left, I think Seattle should have spiked it. Instead, the Seahawks ran the ball for a 2-yard gain, which meant a hurried spike with 8 seconds left, leaving almost no time to run another play unless you want to get risky.

Again, I think they blew the strategy there. Spike it on first down, complete one more good pass over the middle or to the sideline, and you can set up the field goal from there. I flat out don’t get the hurried run with a running clock and no timeouts.

Pete Carroll basically cornered himself into a 55-yard field goal to win the game, and while kickers are better than ever from long distance, that’s a tough kick for Jason Myers. He was wide right with 3 seconds left, and that was the ball game.

The Rams complete the sweep of Seattle, repaying the Seahawks for their sweep last year in close games against Sean McVay’s team. The Seahawks (6-4) have to host the 49ers this Thursday night with a questionable quarterback, so this division race could be wrapping up soon enough.

As for Stafford, he gets his 36th fourth-quarter comeback win, tying him with Dan Marino for No. 6 in NFL history.

Cardinals at Texans: The Shootout That Became Defensive Slugfest

This had great potential to be a fun shootout, and it was in the first half. Kyler Murray threw his first touchdown pass of the season on a 48-yard bomb to Rondale Moore to get the scoring started. By halftime, Houston led 21-10 and rookie C.J. Stroud was sitting on 259 yards and 2 touchdown passes, or what Kenny Pickett might accumulate if games were 20 quarters long.

The third quarter saw Houston’s new kicker miss a 48-yard field goal, Murray scoot into the end zone on a 4th-and-goal touchdown as only he can, and it set up what should have been a dramatic fourth quarter with the Cardinals only down 21-16.

But the score never changed. The Cardinals came up short in turning the ball over on downs, they muffed a punt, Stroud was picked, Murray missed on a 4th-and-4, Stroud was picked for a third time in the game not unlike last week when he had a chance to put the game away in Cincinnati.

Arizona tried to take that last pick the distance for a game-winning drive that started with 4:58 left, but they short-circuited after the 2-minute warning when Murray’s pass to James Conner lost 5 yards and set everything back. Murray has not had the right connection with Hollywood Brown yet in his return, and he was the incomplete target on the game’s last two plays, including a 4th-and-8.

A thing I love about this Houston offense is the way it seems to have a different receiver go nuclear every week. It was Nico Collins earlier this season, then it was Noah Brown the last two weeks, and Sunday’s turn was Tank Dell’s, who had 149 yards and a touchdown. Collins, Brown, and Dell all have multiple games with 140 receiving yards this season, and if that’s not a single-season record for a team, I’d be surprised.

So, I looked it up, and it is a record. The 2023 Texans are the 26th offense to have at least six 140-yard receiving performances in a regular season (record is 8 by 1967 Jets, 2018 Steelers, and 2022 Dolphins), but they are the only one to do it with three receivers having multiple big performances.

Like to see Stroud cut out the big picks late in games while nursing small leads, but that’s about the only thing he’s doing lately that makes you remember he’s a rookie and not an elite veteran.

Raiders at Dolphins: Didn’t Think They Had It in Them

I really did not think the Dolphins had a 20-13 game in them. It’s disappointing for both teams that they didn’t score more in a game where Davante Adams (82 yards) and Tyreek Hill (146 yards) both found the end zone. But Josh Jacobs was held to 39 yards on 14 carries, and the return of De’Von Achane was short-lived for Miami as he left injured after 2 touches for 5 yards.

But these defenses controlled the second half when only a pair of Miami field goals were scored. Every time it looked like the Raiders had a drive going in a 20-13 game, the Miami defense shut the door with a 3rd-down sack, a couple of 4th-down stops, and the final pick was a great play by Jalen Ramsey on a deep ball in the end zone with 25 seconds left to ice the win.

The Miami offense was not up to putting the game away, so the defense stepped up for it. Can they do that against a contender and not a Vegas team with rookie Aidan O’Connell at QB?  We’ll see.

Giants at Commanders: Those Pesky Division Games

I couldn’t believe some of the lines on this game this week with the Giants at +9.5 and the Commanders O/U 23.5 points. Sure, it’s a different offense this year with Sam Howell and Eric Bieniemy, but it’s still a struggling offense that takes too many sacks. That was the case in Week 7 when the Giants beat this team 14-7 in an ugly game.

If there is one thing the Giants have proven they can do consistently over the years, it is beating Washington. Tommy DeVito ended up throwing for 246 yards and 3 touchdowns in this game despite taking 9 sacks. The last team to win a game by double digits despite allowing 9 sacks was the 1984 Falcons, and that’s because they had 8 sacks on defense against the Eagles.

This game is the 145th in the Super Bowl era where a team had 9 sacks on defense while allowing no more than 4 sacks on offense. This is only the second time in those 145 games where the team lost by more than 3 points. The only other game was the 1966 AFL Championship, won 31-7 by the Chiefs over Buffalo.

Sacks were the only thing keeping this close as the Commanders lost the turnover battle 6-0. The sixth turnover was a pick-6 with the ball at midfield and 29 seconds left in a 24-19 game. It happened because of pressure.

Isaiah Simmons could have just gone down and ended the game there at 24-19, but of course my teaser parlays never hit for this reason. 31-19 it is as the Giants have a rookie quarterback who has as many touchdown passes (6) in the last 3 games as Kenny Pickett has in 10 games this year. I promise, that’s the last Pickett mention today.

Circle this one on Jack Del Rio’s resume.

Cowboys at Panthers: Predictable

Dallas accomplished two things it had not done since Week 1’s 40-0 win over the Giants:

  • Win a road game by more than 3 points
  • Get Tony Pollard a touchdown

You probably figured the 33-10 win over 1-win Carolina came easy, but this was only a 17-10 game going into the fourth quarter. That’s when Dallas blew the game open in two snaps. Pollard took off for a 21-yard touchdown, then a Bryce Young pass was intercepted for a touchdown by a defense that was +350 on the day to score, which is ridiculously high. Just like that it was 30-10 and game over.

The Carolina defense did what it could in limiting Dallas to 4.6 yards per play (no plays over 25 yards). But the Panthers lacked any big plays and Young was also sacked 7 times (2.5 sacks by Micah Parsons).

The 2023 Cowboys are only the third team in the Super Bowl era to notch 6 wins by at least 20 points in their first 10 games, joining the 2007 Patriots (8) and 1999 Rams (6). Those were historic Super Bowl teams. I’m not sure Dallas will join them there too, but they definitely know how to squash a scrub (Arizona aside).

Titans at Jaguars: Just Your Typical, Unwatchable Jacksonville Game

The Jaguars are 7-3 after toying with Tennessee in a 34-14 bore that saw the Jags score the game’s first 27 points. Trevor Lawrence threw a pair of touchdowns to Calvin Ridley and rushed for another pair himself.

Rookie Will Levis had 51 passing yards late in the third quarter when it was 27-0 before finishing with a gaudy stat line (13-of-17 for 158 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs, and a 143.8 passer rating) that ultimately meant nothing.

I think the Titans (3-7) are largely going through the motions right now, and the Jaguars play a brand of football that just isn’t that sexy or enticing to watch. Their games haven’t seen a fourth-quarter lead change since Week 1 in Indy, and their only other game this year where either team was within 3 points in the fourth quarter was the 31-24 win in New Orleans where a 24-24 tie was broken late by Jacksonville.

At least you can say their games have been decided decisively, but when you can’t score against the contenders (12 points total in losses to the Chiefs and 49ers), you’re going to get looked over for 34-14 wins over the Titans, who look like a 1980s nightclub slowly coming to grips with the Last Days of Disco.

Next week: For Week 12, thanks to Thanksgiving and Black Friday, the NFL is giving us 5 island games that are all division games, and they might all stink. Great. At least SNF has potential with Ravens-Chargers, but that could be a blowout too. I think Bills-Eagles is the week’s best game and that’ll be a 4:25 start. I enjoy those late-window games where they start in daylight and turn dark by halftime. Just hope it’s not decided in the first half too.

NFL Stat Oddity: Week 7

~ Scott ~ 14 Comments

Save for a Monday night game with Kirk Cousins facing a Super Bowl contender, Week 7 is in the books. While everyone has at least 10 more games to play before the playoffs, we may have reached that point where a Super Bowl rematch from last year looks more probable than any other scenario. Remember, it has only happened one time ever with the Cowboys and Bills in 1992-93.

The Chiefs and Eagles were the favorites before the season started, but we watched Kansas City lose by a point on opening night to Detroit, we questioned if the offense was still as potent with the wide receivers, and we saw the Eagles win some one-score games where they weren’t as impressive as they were a season ago when they had so much balance and avoided turnovers on offense. We were briefly entertaining how good Miami’s scoring was, how it could be Buffalo or Dallas’ year for a change, and of course the 49ers looked like the best overall team in the league until they stumbled in Cleveland last week.

But the roads to the Super Bowl may still very well go through Kansas City and Philadelphia after they both won 31-17 games at home in a Week 7 that featured 10-of-12 games with a comeback opportunity. It comes down to trust, and right now, do you really trust teams like Buffalo, Dallas, and Miami to get the job done in January? Do you even trust the 49ers over the Eagles, who are practically automatic in short-yardage situations and are getting an all-time stretch from A.J. Brown? Patrick Mahomes (+260 at FanDuel) is also back as the MVP favorite after throwing for 424 yards and 4 touchdowns.

Of course, another Chiefs-Eagles Super Bowl would be nightmare fuel for conspiracy theorists who want to say the league is fixing things for Taylor Swift, and that would be her ideal matchup for sure. But if you look around the league in Week 7, officiating is quite shitty in most games these days. That’s part of the product now.

One thing I expected to see in Week 7 was more overs hitting after the under was 12-2-1 in Week 6. But after a solid start to the week, overs are still just 5-7 (or 6-6 if you got Chiefs-Chargers at 47.5) going into Monday night. There were only 3 games this week where both teams scored more than 17 points, and one of them was Thursday night when the Saints lost 31-24 to the Jaguars.

Another thing we have yet to see this week was a team win after trailing by 10+ points. There have only been 2 weeks in the regular season since 2020 where this did not happen once, and it was in Weeks 10-11 (back-to-back) of the 2021 season. If the Vikings go up 10-0 early on Monday night, hammer the 49ers’ ML.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Dolphins at Eagles: Brother, Can You Spare a Yard?

Is it asking too much to have a Sunday Night Football game this season where both teams score at least 3 touchdowns? It would be if the game was Cowboys-Giants (Week 1’s 40-0 rout), but Dolphins-Eagles should have been a solid shootout with two of the best offenses in the league.

Instead, we saw the home team control play, never trail, and that historic Miami offense was held to 10 points, 12 first downs, and 244 total yards (all season lows). Miami’s first score was a 1-yard field goal drive set up by a turnover, and its last score was a pick-six after a deflected pass at the line went right to the defender. You could argue this Miami offense only had one legitimate scoring drive, a 72-yard march before halftime that ended with Tua Tagovailoa’s best throw of the night on a 27-yard touchdown to Tyreek Hill, who was held to 11 catches for 88 yards. With 15 targets for Hill, you’ll take that as a defense against him.

It did not help Miami that it only had 8 offensive possessions and squandered the last three with two failed 4th downs and a bad interception in the fourth quarter when the Dolphins trailed 24-17.

Both offensive lines looked outmatched early, but the Eagles eventually got the better of the physical play up front and got to their game in short yardage. The Eagles were 4-for-4 on fourth down, including a pair of 4th-and-1 conversions inside their own 40 on a drive that ended with a short touchdown run to take a commanding 31-17 lead with 4:46 left. What can you say about the Brotherly Shove other than this team has perfected it?

A.J. Brown had both of the game’s plays that gained over 30 yards, continuing his record-tying streak of five consecutive games with at least 125 receiving yards:

For the Eagles, I had that record going back to last year’s Super Bowl where this team was 0-7 in the Jalen Hurts era in games against teams with 10 wins and a quarterback ranked in the top 15 in QBR. This could end up being the first win in that split, assuming Tagovailoa finishes the season well and the Dolphins double their win total.

But there was some concern coming into this game that Miami was a paper tiger with a 48-20 beatdown loss in Buffalo and all the team’s wins against teams who were a combined 5-24 going into the week. A performance like this in Philadelphia will only strengthen people to not believe in this team, but they were a bit shorthanded at corner with Xavien Howard and Jalen Ramsey not available. Jaylen Waddle also momentarily left the game with a bad back but did return to finish, and we are missing a chance to see rookie running back De’Von Achane after injury sidelined him for weeks to come.

But for as much as I can talk about the Eagles not beating the good teams/QBs, the Dolphins don’t have a quality win in that department since Week 3 last year against Buffalo, the beginning of Tua’s concussion problems. Miami still has a lot to prove, and a game like this puts a real dent in the chances this offense breaks records by season’s end.

Chargers at Chiefs: The Most Boring Second Half in a Herbert-Mahomes Game Yet

Kansas City with a defense is a scary proposition for the rest of the NFL. There were few better ways to test this than a game with the Chargers, who always play the Chiefs well. In fact, Justin Herbert led at halftime and in the fourth quarter in each of his first 6 games against Kansas City, including all 5 matchups against Patrick Mahomes.

But those streaks are dead, and I guess my jinxing power is still strong. I had the stat this week where Chargers +3.5 in the first half was a hit in the last 16 games for the Chargers. It hit in 33 of the first 40 games for coach Brandon Staley as this team struggles in the second half but not so much in the first.

After a 60-yard pass to Josh Palmer and a 49-yard touchdown run by Josh Kelley in the second quarter, it looked like the Chargers were having their usual Kansas City game where Herbert plays great and goes score for score with Mahomes. So much for this “great defense” when the Chargers were tied 17-17 and driving at midfield. But after a Herbert sack led to a punt, the Chiefs made another one of those dagger drives before halftime, going 96 yards in the final minutes before finishing with a touchdown to Travis Kelce, who bullied his way in with the help of his line from the 1-yard line.

The touchdown likely never happens, and Chargers +3.5 1H probably survives another game, if not for a defensive pass interference on the Chargers to wipe out a 3rd-and-23 situation for Kansas City. Just my luck some Chargering would end this streak and blow the bet.

But down 24-17, the Chargers were in this one even though Mahomes passed for 321 yards, 3 touchdowns, and 1 interception (arm punt on 3rd-and-12) in the first half alone as the Chiefs were all about the pass (6 runs for 12 yards at halftime). It looked like we would get another fantastic finish, especially after Blake Bell provided the obligatory Chiefs fumble in the red zone to start the second half.

But a strange thing happened in the second half: 10 drives, 7 points total between the teams. A 24-17 half ended 31-17, which is very unusual in NFL history.

Out of 433 games since 1970 where both teams scored at least 17 points in the first half, this is only the 27th game (6.2%) that finished under 48.5 total points. It is only the 6th game to end under 48.5 after a half where one team scored at least 24 points and the other scored at least 17.

The turnovers were obviously costly. The Chargers took the Bell fumble, drove to the Kansas City 8, then Herbert’s pass was deflected at the line and wound up as an interception.

Despite that pick, the Chargers had the ball in the fourth quarter, down 24-17, on three different drives and failed to do anything with it. That’s not what we’d see from Kansas City defenses in past years.

If you give Herbert 3 drives to do something, he usually can get a score on one, but not on Sunday. If you give Mahomes 3 drives to put the game away, you can all but guarantee he’s going to do it eventually. The first two likely only failed because they started at the Kansas City 3 and 8 (backed up). But after Mecole Hardman made his return felt with a 50-yard punt return, it was smooth sailing for the Chiefs with 6:16 to go. Mahomes converted a 3rd-and-6 to Hardman, then threw his 4th touchdown of the game to Isiah Pacheco with 3:30 left to take a 31-17 lead.

In no man’s land on 2nd-and-24 at midfield, Herbert threw another desperation interception to end the game. Herbert had the first game of his career where he threw multiple interceptions and took at least 4 sacks (he had 2 INTs and 5 sacks).

The Chiefs are the only team in the league to not allow more than 21 points in any game this season. Mahomes’ 6th game with 400 yards and 4 touchdowns ties him for third place in NFL history.

When every non-playoff rest game between these teams had been decided by 1-6 points since 2020 when Herbert became the starter, this one ending 31-17 is another sign that we should respect this defense. I don’t know if they can keep it up for a whole season as the last teams to start like this eventually faded, but if the offense is going to have halves like it did on Sunday to start this game, it may not matter.

Bills at Patriots: The Mac Jones Era Will Survive Another Week

This was the upset of the week. Buffalo (-7.5) has been flirting with extremes from a 48-20 win over the Dolphins to losing 25-20 in London to Jacksonville, then coming up a yard short of losing to the Giants in a 14-9 game last week.

I thought they would take last week’s scare and go the opposite direction with a commanding win over a New England team they have owned since 2020, and possibly put an end to the Mac Jones era.

But this wasn’t some 4-D chess by the Bills to make the Patriots keep Jones as the starter. This was just a bad performance on both sides of the ball and it’s inexcusable at this point. The offense may have some flaws, but it is more than talented enough to have more than 10 points on the board before the fourth quarter. The defense has injuries as we all know, but the New England offense has been so bad that there’s no excuse for allowing the Patriots to pile up 29 points and 364 yards.

What were some of Buffalo’s problems? The usual case of relying a bit too much on Josh Allen, who can be a wild card with his decision making. He had a pick and lost a fumble in this game. But the offensive line also struggled to protect him, and that’s surprising when the Patriots didn’t even have their best pass rusher (Matt Judon) or corner (Christian Gonzalez). Stefon Diggs usually has his way with the Patriots, but he only had 58 yards on 12 targets this time. Gabriel Davis is a flawed No. 2 as he only had a 6-yard catch on 5 targets.

But to let Jones complete 25-of-30 passes for 272 yards and 2 touchdowns? Come on, Buffalo. This was looking to be a big New England win after the Patriots took a 22-10 lead with half a quarter to play, but the Bills staged an impressive team comeback. Diggs broke free on an athletic 25-yard touchdown, then the defense forced Kendrick Bourne to fumble on a completion, putting the Bills 29 yards away from the go-ahead touchdown with 4:56 left.

This is exactly the kind of back-breaking fumble that has been killing the Patriots in close games like this since 2020. The kind of play that has nothing to do with the quarterback or head coach, but it’s the type of mistake we’re not used to seeing the Patriots make. Sure enough, the Bills turned that short field into a touchdown on an Allen sneak, then the 2-point conversion was also successful to make it 25-22.

Plenty of time (1:58) for the Patriots to answer, but it was a windy day for kickers, and Jones had the worst record among active quarterbacks in comeback opportunities at 1-11. Almost immediately the Bills were in bad shape as the Patriots called a little pass to running back Rhamondre Stevenson, who took it 34 yards and got this thing rolling. A pass interference penalty put the ball at the 1, and Jones threw a game-winning touchdown pass to tight end Mike Gesicki with 12 seconds left for easily the best game-winning drive we’ve seen from the Patriots since the 2018 season.

The Bills only had time to fumble on a lateral attempt. Buffalo is only 4-3, and while we put a lot of stock in that 48-20 thrashing of the Dolphins, we have to question the Bills’ wins the same way we do Miami’s since they are against similar teams (Raiders, Commanders, and Giants).

The good news is Miami lost too Sunday night, but the whole AFC East is looking a bit fraudulent right now. With a chance to knock the Patriots out, the Bills folded on defense to Mac Jones in the clutch. That’s pretty low.

Lions at Ravens: Rout of the Week

If Bills-Patriots was the upset of the week, this was the unexpected rout of the week. I was really confident in this being a great 23-20 type of game that went down to the wire. Even when the Ravens went up 21-0, you could picture them blowing it with the way they have played since 2021. Too many blown leads and close games.

But this was an ass kicking the likes of which we have rarely seen this year. We definitely do not see Dan Campbell-coached teams get dragged like this for 60 minutes. The Lions are 28-13 ATS (68.3%) since 2021, the best record in the league in that time, and we have seen this team rally back to one-score losses against elite teams the last few years like the 2021 49ers (41-33), 2022 Eagles (38-35), and 2022 Bills (28-25).

With Detroit trying to go to 6-1, Lamar Jackson came prepared with arguably the best game of his career: 21-of-27 for 357 yards, 3 touchdown passes, 36 rushing yards, 1 rushing touchdown, and 4 straight long touchdown drives to begin the game. It may have been 5 touchdowns in a row if Jackson had not had an aborted snap, the only blemish to an otherwise perfect half.

Baltimore even started the second half with a 94-yard touchdown drive, showing this was not a day where the team would make things too close for comfort. The Lions only got on the board when it was 35-0 in the fourth quarter when rookie Jahmyr Gibbs scored his first NFL touchdown, but the Lions lost 38-6 as Jared Goff took 5 sacks and threw 53 passes in an effort to try to keep up.

But the Ravens dominated this one start to finish, which is not the type of performance we’ve seen from this team that often. I’m not sure if it was just one of those anomaly days for both teams, but this was a strong statement as people were giving me pushback earlier this month for suggesting the Ravens were a legit contender and a team like Detroit was merely window dressing for the Super Bowl competition.

Browns at Colts: The Unexpected Quasi-Shootout

From Saturday’s predictions: “Wouldn’t it be such a #RandomNFL thing for the Browns to beat the 49ers with P.J. Walker but lose to the Colts with Deshaun Watson back? I almost picked it outright, but we’ll go with an Indy cover.”

Since 1950, NFL teams were 0-631 when allowing 38 points, throwing 2 interceptions, and getting outgained by at least 110 yards. Welcome to history because the Browns won doing all those things in Indy on Sunday.

Something always felt off about this game, and I’m still surprised picking Indy +3.5 and the Browns to win proved to be my best game prediction in Week 7. But the Browns were getting so much credit for the defense, and the Colts are now the only team in the league to score at least 20 points in every game.

But I don’t think anyone in the world could have predicted a 39-38 final from this one. What makes it even crazier is P.J. Walker outplayed Deshaun Watson, who left injured very early after he slammed his head on the ground, and while the Cleveland defense technically did some great things to get this win, it was at the expense of holding the Colts to 38 points instead of closer to 50 like they had potential for. Is that great defense these days? Meh.

I don’t know what this game will do for Cleveland going forward, but Gardner Minshew throwing for 305 yards and running in 2 touchdowns has to knock some shine off the idea of this being a historic defense.

And yet, it was a monster performance from Myles Garrett that helped turn things around for Cleveland. He forced a strip-sack of Minshew, which led to a short field and game-tying touchdown at 14-14. He blocked a 60-yard field goal in impressive fashion, though you could argue the Colts should have punted there early in the second quarter. Garrett then forced another strip-sack of Minshew that his teammate picked up for a Cleveland touchdown on a fumble recovery in the end zone.

The teams kept exchanging scores in the fourth quarter, though the Colts failed on some chances to put the game away. They even got a go-ahead 75-yard touchdown to Michael Pittman Jr., the second time this year he got a big YAC play for a touchdown.

But the Colts punted back to Cleveland and Walker with 2:35 left, and the defense failed to put the game away. There was a strip-sack that would have done the trick, but an illegal contact penalty wiped that out in the red zone. But the next play is the scrutinized one as defensive pass interference was called on what clearly looked like an uncatchable ball in the back of the end zone:

I think that’s a really bad call against the Colts. On the other hand, a no-call would have made it 2nd-and-goal from the 8 with 33 seconds left. Not exactly a game over situation. But still, it made things easier from the 1-yard line, and it looked like Cleveland was going to botch it by throwing 3 times in a row instead of running. I know they didn’t have timeouts but play the percentages. The run is more likely going to work than Walker throwing.

On 4th-and-goal, the Browns finally ran and Kareem Hunt barely broke the plane with 15 seconds left. The Browns failed on the 2-point conversion, but it didn’t matter much at that point. Minshew was strip-sacked a third time, but the only surprise is it wasn’t Garrett again. Minshew finished with 4 turnovers for the second game in a row, though he was much better this week than last week in Jacksonville.

We’ll see where these teams finish and if this quarter proves decisive for playoff seeding. But what a wild game, and a complicated one in trying to figure out how well Minshew is playing, and how great the Cleveland defense is this year.

Also, the Browns have a huge Watson problem, but that’s a story for another day. It just amuses me that Kevin Stefanski can maximize every quarterback in his offense except the one who is supposed to be the best. Maybe that’s just karma.

Packers at Broncos: From Favre-Elway to Rodgers-Manning to THIS

Boy, if this is what it takes for Denver to win a home game under Sean Payton, then enjoy it, because there aren’t going to be many more of these wins. Green Bay flopped off its bye week with a scoreless first half, but it took Denver 2.5 quarters to find the end zone too.

Green Bay was much stronger in the second half, not unlike the 17-0 comeback against the Saints this year, and the Packers scored on three straight drives to take a 17-16 lead with 8:31 left. You had to start thinking this wasn’t Denver’s year when touchdowns like this on 4th-and-2 are happening to them:

It starts to make sense why Denver has lost 10 games in a row after having the lead at halftime. But this would not be No. 11. In fact, by coming back with a field goal drive to win the game, Denver made sure Green Bay was the first team to blow 3 fourth-quarter leads this season.

Russell Wilson did not have a great game, but he got the offense close enough for Wil Lutz to bang in his fourth field goal from 52 yards away to take a 19-17 lead with 3:50 left. That was plenty of time for Jordan Love to answer, but I think conservative calls once the Packers reached Denver territory combined with a holding penalty short-circuited the drive.

Love’s accuracy issues showed up on a 2nd-and-20 incompletion to Christian Watson, which saw the receiver go down with an apparent knee injury. On 3rd-and-2, Love just threw one up and it was intercepted to essentially end the game. The Broncos ran out every second of the clock and escaped with the 19-17 win.

Green Bay has lost back-to-back games in which it did not allow 20 points, which has not happened to the Packers since 2005 when Aaron Rodgers was a rookie on the bench. If only there was a quarterback of that caliber waiting in the wings on this Green Bay bench.

Steelers at Rams: When Coming Up Short Is Enough to Win the Game

Yes, the Steelers started the game with a 3-and-out, they had only one field goal at halftime, and T.J. Watt bailed them out with a great interception to start the third quarter, setting up a 7-yard touchdown drive.

All those things made it look like Matt Canada was perfectly representing his brand in LA after a bye week. But for the rest of the game, the Steelers actually looked like a competent offense that could get the ball to its best receivers about as well as Matthew Stafford got the ball to Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua.

While Nacua (154 yards) had a monster day, Kupp did not, catching 2-of-7 targets for 29 yards with a couple of early drops that seemed to set him up for a bad day – if it wasn’t my bets that did him in since I am a proven jinx of the highest order. Kupp’s only real contribution was on a 2-point conversion to put the Rams up 17-10.

You have to go back to Week 6 of the 2020 season to find the last time a defense held Kupp under 30 yards in a game he did not leave injured. That was against the 49ers, and he had 11 yards on 3 catches and 9 targets. This was shocking for a Pittsburgh defense that has been awful against top receivers. But Stafford and Kupp did not bring their A game for this one.

Neither did kicker Brett Maher, who missed a pair of field goals from 51 and 53 yards away in this game. Again, as someone who led a picks article off this week with Rams over 1.5 made field goals, I can’t help but feel like a total f’n jinx.

And it’s not like I did these things to root for the Steelers to win. I barely wanted to watch this game and was flipping between the Chiefs-Chargers on CBS and the RedZone channel, because I’ve grown to hate watching Canada’s offense that much.

But in Diontae Johnson’s return game from injury, he made the crucial play on a 3rd-and-8 to start the fourth quarter. He turned a short throw into a 39-yard gain. He may never score a touchdown again with Kenny Pickett as his quarterback, but he is good for a play like that from time to time. Pickett also started looking sharper on his throws to George Pickens in the second half.

The Johnson play set up Jaylen Warren for a 13-yard touchdown run to tie the game. Pickens and Johnson had big catches to set up Najee Harris for a 3-yard go-ahead touchdown run with 7:20 left.

Pittsburgh’s defense held after Stafford threw 3 straight incompletions from his 43. The Steelers had 5:28 to burn and they shockingly did it. Pickens had a 31-yard gain on a 3rd-and-3. A taunting penalty on the Steelers, something they had a few of in this game on the receivers, negated what would have been a terrible defensive pass interference penalty on the Rams on 3rd-and-8. Replaying the down, the Steelers came up 1 yard short.

Mike Tomlin had to go for the 4th-and-1 at the Los Angeles 39 with a chance to win the game. The Rams were out of timeouts and only 2:24 remained. The Steelers ran their own version of the Tush Push, and Pickett looked like he was short. The chains were brought out, and shockingly, he was just over the marker for the game-clinching first down.

The Rams were hosed.

If you watch any good replay, you can see Pickett slipped and his knee was down very quickly after getting the ball. He was short of the marker, but the refs blew the spot. Since it was outside of the 2-minute warning and the Rams were out of timeouts, Sean McVay could not challenge the play. It is not 100% certain they would have reserved the call on the field even if he did have a challenge, but he would have had a decent case of getting the ball back with a solid 2:00 to play.

It’s not even the most egregious late-game officiating blunder in a game involving Sean McVay (ask Saints fans). Remember, the Steelers were up 24-17 and Stafford would have needed to drive 60 yards for a touchdown to tie or a 2-point conversion to take the lead. But it was still a pretty bad spot and cheap ending to a game that turned out more decent than expected.

The Steelers are 4-2, and if not for coming up short to win a game, this might be viewed as their most legitimate win this season. But here they are, continuing to win games without playing their best. It shouldn’t be sustainable but given the schedule and if the health of players like Watt and Pickens allow for it, this team is going to win 9-10 games and be in the playoff mix with the rest of the AFC North.

Falcons at Buccaneers: NFC South of Heaven

The Falcons (4-3) are back in first place in the NFC South after a 16-13 win in Tampa Bay, but the game served as a solid reminder of why this is still a bad division and the NFC East runner-up is likely to notch a playoff win against the eventual winner here.

I was on Atlanta to win because I trust the offense’s ability to move the ball more than I do Tampa Bay’s right now. I may not trust the Falcons to put many drives in the end zone, but what can you say about a Tampa Bay team that has now lost 25-11 (Eagles), 20-6 (Lions), and 16-13 at home this season?

I don’t even know if I feel like commenting on the Bijan Robinson shenanigans, but it sure does look suspicious when a player who was not on the injury report has a surprise illness, then sits out most of the game until they decide to give him a carry for 3 yards with 33 seconds left in the game. What the hell was that?

But both teams made the kind of mistakes in crunch time that make them hard to trust come January. Desmond Ridder had an efficient passing stat line, but with a chance to put the game away with a touchdown run to go up 20-10, he got a little soft at the end of the run and fumbled through the end zone with 6:30 left to keep it a 13-10 game. Huge mistake.

But Baker Mayfield made a bigger mistake in field goal range with 3:46 left:

It’s plays like that that made trusting him in Tampa Bay hard this year. But did he do the Tom Brady thing and take advantage of another opportunity after his defense forced the 3-and-out? Yes, the Buccaneers drove right down the field again into kicking range. But they weren’t able to get the touchdown after a 3rd-down sack of Mayfield inside the 10, and it did not help that he threw two incompletions before that to save clock for Atlanta in a tied game.

Ridder had 2 timeouts and 45 seconds, which we know is plenty of time in this league for these kickers. After almost hooking up with Kyle Pitts for a big play, the two did it again for a bigger one at 39 yards, and that basically set up the kick. After a couple of runs, Younghoe Koo came out and drilled the field goal from 51 yards out to give Atlanta a 16-13 win.

Neither of these teams will be feared in January but remember this quarter when it comes to figuring out which one gets to host the playoff game for the NFC South.

Cardinals at Seahawks: If a Bear Shits in the Woods…

Did anyone really care that this game was going on, or that the Seahawks were in a dogfight for most of the day as an 8.5-point favorite before covering late? I think we’re over the Joshua Dobbs experimental part of the season and would prefer to see Kyler Murray return even if he is likely not in the future plans for this franchise.

Kenneth Walker failing to score twice from the 1-yard line was more of my success as a jinx against myself. The Seahawks ended up settling for a field goal and 17-10 lead, and the game stayed that way for roughly 20 minutes. Matt Prater was wide left on a 34-yard field goal for the Cardinals with 11:06 left. Later, a fake punt doomed the Cardinals, only gaining 4 yards on 4th-and-9 with 4:58 left.

Seattle, which played without D.K. Metcalf (ribs), finally put it away from there with a 48-yard field goal with 2:17 left to make it 20-10. Dobbs was sacked on a 4th-and-11 at midfield to end the game.

I know the Seahawks (4-2) are currently the No. 5 seed in the NFC, but I just can’t muster up much interest in games with Arizona right now.

Raiders at Bears: Just Put McDaniels Out of His Misery

Once again, we must figure out which is the most embarrassing loss for Josh McDaniels with the Raiders:

  • Was it when he blew a 16-point lead in the fourth quarter to Arizona after Kyler Murray needed 20 seconds of scrambling to convert a 2-point conversion?
  • Was it losing to Jeff Saturday in his first game as interim coach of the Colts when he had no previous coaching experience in the NFL or college football? Saturday never won another game.
  • Was it when he blew a 16-3 lead in the fourth quarter to Baker Mayfield, who signed with the Rams 48 hours before the game?

Or is it when McDaniels lost 30-12 and wire-to-wire to a 1-5 Chicago team that was an underdog with an undrafted rookie quarterback nicknamed T-Bag?

No matter which one you choose, the fact that there are this many contenders just 24 games into McDaniels’ tenure should tell us that he should be fired as this is not working out.

Another sign it’s not working out: Raiders have not scored 20 points on offense in any game this season. They only reached 21 points against the Patriots last week on a safety. This is the longest streak to start a season since the 2009 Redskins made it 8 games without 20 offensive points.

I’m not even sure pointing out Brian Hoyer started for an injured Jimmy Garoppolo is that noteworthy. Did I mention the Bears started Tyson Bagent? Hoyer is McDaniels’ guy going back to the Patriots. He knows his offense. He just didn’t execute it well against one of the worst defenses in the league. Meanwhile, the Bears kept things easy for Bagent with short throws, and he managed the game well while D’Onta Foreman scored 3 touchdowns.

The NFL can do better than giving second head coaching jobs to people like Dennis Allen (Saints) and McDaniels when it was so bad on the first try. It was not a fluke that it did not work out the first time, and coaching under Sean Payton and Bill Belichick is not a proven path to coaching well on your own.

Commanders at Giants: You Can’t Spell “Sack Machine” Without S-A-M

Both offenses are lousy at blocking, but I picked the Giants because I figured Tyrod Taylor would manage the pressure better than Sam Howell, and this Jack Del Rio-coached defense is worse than what the Giants have.

There were 10 sacks in the game, but Washington (6) took more, and Taylor did help his team to a 14-0 lead where they just had to hang on for the second half. But this game was FUGLY. There were more possessions (27) than points (21).

The Commanders may have been scoreless if the Giants didn’t muff a punt and set up a 21-yard field for Washington’s only touchdown. But that was it for the scoring. The Giants blocked a 27-yard field goal early in the fourth quarter, Saquon Barkley lost a fumble inside the 10 yard line on the next drive, and Jahan Dotson dropped a 4th-and-5 pass that he had a shot at catching inside the 5-yard line with under a minute left. The Giants took knees to end it from there.

For as bad as the offenses were, at least the final quarter was interesting. But I don’t know how much longer Washington can go before Howell is injured or replaced. He is on pace for 97 sacks this season.

Next week: A trio of prime-time games with Bucs-Bills, Bears-Chargers, and Lions-Raiders? This season really hates the viewers. The closest we get to “good” games this week involve the AFC North with Steelers-Jaguars, Bengals-49ers, and Browns-Seahawks, and chances are at least one will be a total rout.

NFL Stat Oddity: Week 6

~ Scott ~ 15 Comments

You know it was a crazy day in the NFL when the only teams to blow a double-digit lead were the last undefeated teams (49ers and Eagles) and the only winless team (Panthers). To top it off, the Bills had the largest point spread (-15.5) of any team this season, and they were a yard away from losing to the Giants at home on Sunday night.

But winning ugly is still a lot better than the alternative of losing dumb. There was a lot of bad football played this Sunday, and it is looking like this will be a season similar to 2021 where there are no truly great teams. That’s how you end up with the Titans as a No. 1 seed, a default MVP because they don’t know who else to give it to (Aaron Rodgers), and the only Super Bowl ever without any top 3 seeds (Bengals and Rams were both No. 4 seeds).

You just cannot trust these teams anymore, and a big part of the problem is on the offensive side of the ball. Monday night pending, a whopping 8 teams won this week without scoring more than 20 points – tied for the most in any week in the 32-team era since 2002. That may have been 9 teams if the Raiders didn’t get a safety against the Patriots to finally break 20 points this year.

The only other times this happened in 8 games was in Week 1 of the 2007 and 2010 seasons and Week 3 of the 2011 season. Those were all 16-game slates too while we had 14 games this week (15th on Monday), so it is the highest rate of winners scoring under 21 points in a week in the NFL regular season since Week 5 of the 1999 season when 9-of-14 games were won with fewer than 21 points. That week ended with the Jets and Rick Mirer losing 16-6 to the Jaguars on Monday night, so let’s hope Cowboys-Chargers has higher standards than that.

There were 10 games with a comeback opportunity, though only 3 were successful. They just so happened to be the ones to knock the 49ers and Eagles from the ranks of the undefeated, and Buffalo was spared the embarrassment of losing as a 15.5-point favorite.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

49ers at Browns: If Brock Purdy Is Tom Brady, Then Jake Moody Is Billy Cundiff

Sunday in Cleveland was the kind of game that a lot of NFL fans wanted to see Brock Purdy deal with to see what he’s really made of. Everything had gone so smoothly for him. He was 13-0 when he threw 20 passes in a game and had a passer rating of at least 87.4 in all of them, a streak we may never see again to begin someone’s career.

Purdy had only trailed in the fourth quarter once in a game where he had both functioning elbows, and that was the Raiders game last year, a defense known for blowing games. There was only one other game that was tied in the fourth quarter, and that was the Dallas playoff game.

This was a major test of adversity as the 49ers were playing a very tough Cleveland defense on the road, there was a little rain, and Deebo Samuel and Christian McCaffrey did not finish the game due to injuries.

Despite leading 10-0 early, the 49ers were down 13-10 in the fourth quarter, and Purdy’s accuracy was shot. He was getting hit, he threw his first interception of the season, he had a few drive-killing sacks, and he was going to have to pick himself up and have an answer for why he’s getting outplayed by Cleveland backup quarterback P.J. Walker.

But Walker lived dangerously in this one, and in fact, his 24.1 QBR was the worst by a winning quarterback in Week 6 and below Purdy’s final number (40.0). Walker threw a second interception and that was returned to the Cleveland 8 with 11:04 left. Jordan Mason immediately rushed for an 8-yard touchdown and the 49ers were back up 17-13. The Browns were held to a field goal, then the 49ers badly botched their drive to put the game away with Purdy getting called for grounding and throwing an incompletion on a drive that lasted 25 seconds. But with Walker throwing wildly and what looked like a 4th-and-10 on the way, it looked like the 49ers were going to survive.

A comeback and game-winning drive where your defense and running game did all the work to bail you out on your worst day, and you blew it in the four-minute offense? Damn, Purdy really is the new Tom Brady.

But there are so many reasons we’ll never see the LOAT again. For one, the NFL has gotten incredibly soft with hard hits, and the 49ers were hosed on a bad call on that 3rd-and-10 incompletion for what looked like a clean hit to the shoulder area. But because it was hard and looked like it hurt, out came the flag for unnecessary roughness, and instead of a 4th-and-10 with the game on the line, Cleveland had a fresh set of downs. It was a messy game with both teams having at least 12 penalties for over 105 yards each.

There was still work to be done, and Jerome Ford did much of it with runs of 14 and 22 yards. Walker didn’t actually gain any yards on this drive, which ended with a 29-yard field goal to put the Browns up 19-17 with 1:40 left.

That set the stage for Purdy, who was going to have to lean on Brandon Aiyuk. That’s where he went for a couple of completions for 33 yards, and the 49ers got conservative inside the 30, which is usually a no-no in this league.

Purdy spiked the ball with 9 seconds left, and you have to say he did his job. But just like his first game-winning drive attempt against the Raiders last year, his kicker failed him. Last year it was veteran Robbie Gould who missed a 41-yard field goal to win Purdy’s 4th start. Instead, it sent the game to overtime where the Raiders threw an interception, gifting Purdy a kneeldown and short field goal for his first game-winning drive.

This time it was rookie kicker Jake Moody, who the team used the 99th pick in the draft to get. Let’s just say this early legacy game for him did not go well as he was 9-for-9 coming into Sunday, but he missed twice in this game. The probable game winner was only a 41-yard kick, but Moody hooked it wide right, and the Browns (+9.5) survived for one of the biggest upsets this season.

It took 14 starts, but Purdy has his first legitimate loss in the NFL, and it came at the mercy of a kicker. Meanwhile, Brady started 381 games in his career and just once, in his 183rd start against the 2012 Cardinals, did he lose a game after a clutch field goal was missed.

Purdy’s hero growing up was Dan Marino, who lost 10 games in his career after a clutch field goal was missed. I’ve yet to ever find a quarterback with more than that (Drew Brees also had 10). Let’s hope Purdy doesn’t turn out like Marino in that regard or as someone who had his best title shots in his first two seasons.

But the 49ers looked awfully mortal in this game. Cleveland earned it on more merit than just getting a weak penalty and missed kick. The Browns beat the 49ers 334-215 in yards. Cleveland has allowed 1,002 yards in 5 games, the 3rd-best mark to start a season since 1970 behind only the 1971 Colts (836) and 1970 Vikings (945).

Thie historic defense got the best of the historic offense this time. Now you just have to hope Moody doesn’t let this crush his psyche because kickers are fragile like that.

Eagles at Jets: Down Goes the Other 5-0 Team in Inexplicable Fashion

I don’t think the Eagles had a second to gloat about the 49ers losing in Cleveland, because their game kicked off with the Jets before the 49ers’ game ended.

This was another shocker with a 5-0 team going down in the second half, but at least there was some precedent for this one. The Jets basically relied on their Week 1 blueprint against the Bills where the defense forces several takeaways from the quarterback, Garrett Wilson makes some plays, and Zach Wilson stays out of the way of the game-winning touchdown. Wilson took 5 sacks but the Jets avoided any turnovers.

Meanwhile, Jalen Hurts led his team in rushing (47 yards and another touchdown), but it was a very quiet day for his running backs (14 carries for 33 yards). Hurts also threw 3 interceptions, which is so unlike him.

The Eagles led 14-9 at halftime but never scored again. In the fourth quarter, Hurts threw a pick in New York territory, then Jake Elliott missed a 37-yard field goal with 8:13 left. But the Jets could not capitalize. Hurts had a chance to put the game away with a 3rd-and-9 conversion, but his third interception of the game was one of the worst of his career:

That set the Jets up 8 yards away from the end zone, and immediately Breece Hall scored as if the Eagles wanted him to. That’s kind of a bold decision in a 14-12 game as the Eagles had two timeouts to get the ball back with time for a field goal to win it, but I guess they figured maximizing time for a touchdown was their best shot. Not an easy decision.

Hurts had 1:46 and 2 timeouts to drive 75 yards for a touchdown, which is hard but doable. However, he did not get a single first down and the Eagles turned it over on downs after his 4th-and-8 pass was incomplete.

That formula of forcing 4 takeaways against the Eagles still works well in beating them. It happened twice last year by the Commanders and Cowboys. That’s the kind of crazy effort it usually takes to beat this team, but the Jets hung in there, protected the ball, and chipped away with field goals before getting the ultimate break with that last pick.

It’s not a formula you can sustain, but the Jets are 3-3 going into the bye, and frankly I thought that was the best-case scenario with this early schedule if the team had Aaron Rodgers. The schedule will get easier, and in this sea of mediocrity engulfing the AFC this year, the Jets still have a shot.

Giants at Bills: WTF?

The Bills (4-2) win this week’s award for “Win That Felt Most Like a Loss.” Buffalo came dangerously close to losing to the lowly Giants despite being favored by 15.5 on Sunday night in another barnburner for island games this year with its 14-9 final.

Maybe the spread was wacky, but this was a Buffalo team that recently won 3 games in a row by 28+ points each, and a New York team starting Tyrod Taylor that has been awful in basically every half but one (Arizona) this season.

But it was a game that makes you ask many questions.

Are the Giants better with Tyrod Taylor starting than Daniel Jones (neck)? Maybe so, but they still scored 9 points and botched the end of each half from the 1-yard line. They should have just kicked a field goal to end the first half instead of trying to run Saquon Barkley for a touchdown as time ran out on the Giants.

Did Barkley make the offense better in his return? Eh, he had 24 carries for 93 yards with a 34-yard run his longest play, and he caught 4-of-5 targets for a whopping 5 yards. That’s 98 yards on 29 plays, so that’s not very good, and they lost the confidence to go back to him with the game on the line on the last play, throwing incomplete to Darren Waller in the back of the end zone on a play that made zero use of Tyrod’s mobility. Some wanted a flag but I’m okay with not bailing out the high throw. It was already an untimed down to begin with after a penalty on Buffalo extended the game.

Is the Buffalo offense okay? We know the defense has most of the injuries, but that doesn’t excuse why the Bills were scoreless at home going into the fourth quarter against the Giants. Josh Allen had a bit of Stefon Diggs tunnel vision on the night as Diggs had 100 of Allen’s 169 passing yards. Tyler Bass did not help with a couple of missed field goals, but when push came to shove, the Bills responded in the fourth quarter with a couple of nice touchdown passes from Allen to two of his more unheralded/unknown receivers (Deonte Harty and Quintin Morris).

But the Bills were lucky to be playing the Giants, the team that needed 8 yards and saw Tyrod throwing passes 38 and 47 yards in the air to end a drive on downs with 1:45 left. But that didn’t end the game as Allen threw an incomplete pass on a 3rd down and Bass missed a 53-yard field goal with 1:25 left that would have gave Buffalo a nice cushion at 17-9.

That made the long 14-play march possible to end the game, and the Giants were just one yard, one better play call away from pulling off this upset. Instead, the Giants are who we thought they were, taking their record in prime time to 5-25 (.167) since 2017.

Lions at Buccaneers: Better Team Won

I’m not sure these teams are as good as their 1-loss records suggested going into Week 6, but I do know the better team won this game. Even though the Lions lost David Montgomery to an injury and had no running game, Jared Goff (353 yards and 2 touchdowns) played much better than Baker Mayfield, who failed to lead a touchdown drive.

It was just some of the little things in this game that showed why Detroit is better.

  • Mayfield had a pass tipped and intercepted deep in his own end that turned into a field goal to start the scoring for Detroit. Meanwhile, Goff had a few passes tipped that fell harmlessly to the ground.
  • On a 3rd-and-12, Mike Evans had an awful drop on what would have been a conversion for Tampa Bay. In the third quarter, Evans also negated a 3rd-and-1 with a push off that was flagged for offensive pass interference.
  • On a 3rd-and-13, Amon-Ra St. Brown took a screen pass and got an incredible block from Craig Reynolds to free him up for the game’s first touchdown.
  • Detroit’s other touchdown pass saw incredible adjustment to the ball from Jameson Williams for a 45-yard score.

The Lions are 5-1 with a +55 scoring differential. It hasn’t been this good for the team since 2011 (5-1, +64), and even that felt less impressive than this since Green Bay was undefeated at that moment and the defending champion.

This is finally Detroit’s year in the NFC North, and if Sunday is any indication, maybe the whole NFC if the Lions can stay healthy and improve as the season goes on.

Colts at Jaguars: The Streak Continues

I’m not sure why, but the Colts seemingly lose their shit every time they go down to Jacksonville where they have not won since 2014. This streak has gone on through several coaches and quarterbacks now.

Sunday was easily the worst performance yet by the Shane Steichen-coached Colts, and Gardner Minshew was a mess with 4 turnovers (3 interceptions, 1 lost fumble). The mistakes boosted the Jaguars to 37 points even though Calvin Ridley was held to 30 yards, Trevor Lawrence passed for 181 yards with 3 sacks, and the running game averaged 2.9 yards per carry.

Like I said, the Colts might as well book these Jacksonville games in the Bermuda Triangle instead of Duval County. It looked like it might actually start out as a legit, heavyweight fight with the Jaguars following a long Indy field goal drive with a long touchdown drive that went into the second quarter.

But that interesting start was the end of the efficiency as Josh Allen forced Minshew to fumble on the next snap, and the Jaguars turned that into a 22-yard touchdown run by Travis Etienne. The Colts continued to shoot themselves in the foot, and they trailed 31-6 in the fourth quarter.

There was a rally attempt with the Colts getting a touchdown (31-13) and a Lawrence interception, but I feel like they should have kicked a field goal on 4th-and-5 at the 15 with 11:06 left. Just keep the game going and get it to 2 possessions. But Minshew threw another pick. Even then, the Jaguars went three-and-out and the Colts got a touchdown to make it 31-20, but a long kick return took a lot out of Indy, which gave up a cheap field goal (34-20) before the Colts went 4-and-out (cue another cheap field goal).

With Minshew a mess and Anthony Richardson considering season-ending surgery for his shoulder, it’s looking like Jacksonville (4-2) may have just ended another season for the Colts (3-3).

Seahawks at Bengals: Looked Like a Cincinnati Playoff Game

If you don’t understand the header, let’s do a quick refresher on what a playoff game looks like in the Zac Taylor-Joe Burrow era in Cincinnati.

  • There have been 7 playoff games, and despite the 5-2 record, the Bengals have only gotten anywhere from 17-to-27 points from the offense in each game.
  • The offense has only contributed one touchdown in the fourth quarter of these games.
  • Burrow has passed for 270 yards or fewer in 6-of-7 games.
  • Only the 27-10 win in Buffalo last year was decided by more than one possession.
  • In 4 games, the Cincinnati defense has forced a crucial turnover in the fourth quarter or overtime.

With Seattle coming in as a formidable opponent, this looked like it might be a great shootout with both offenses scoring touchdowns on their opening drives. But it was a struggle from there with the Seahawks only adding a pair of field goals on their final 10 drives. After starting the game with back-to-back touchdowns, the Bengals would have gone scoreless on their final 8 drives if not for a 0-yard field goal in the fourth quarter that was set up by a Geno Smith interception.

Burrow, who only had 185 passing yards, threw 3 straight incompletions before Evan McPherson made a 52-yard field goal to make it 17-13 and conclude the scoring with 11:47 to play. Seattle dominated in yardage (381-214), but between 4 sacks and 2 picks for Smith, the offense kept getting turned away in scoring territory.

Smith had four possessions in the fourth quarter alone and was unable to get points on any of them. Despite D.K. Metcalf (30) and Tyler Lockett (36) each having a 30-yard completion in the final six minutes on two different drives, the Seahawks could not break through in the red zone.

That duo of Trey Hendrickson and Sam Hubbard made sure Geno was stopped with sacks on 1st-and-goal from the 7 and 4th-and-goal from the 6 with 2:03 left. After getting the ball back and getting quickly to the Cincinnati 11 after Lockett’s big catch, the Seahawks again looked frazzled. Smith threw incomplete on 3rd-and-8, and then again under pressure on 4th-and-ballgame with 35 seconds left to end it.

The Bengals are now 3-0 against the NFC West and 0-3 against AFC teams this year. Are they a contender again? It’s hard to say, but they at least picked a good week to win unimpressively when other contenders either lost or looked worse against worse competition.

But seeing Smith repeatedly get turned away in the fourth quarter was a throwback to what has become the typical Cincinnati playoff game for this team. Burrow had some more Fran Tarkenton-esque scrambles in this game that I think can put the calf concerns to rest, but that’s not to say the offense is back on track. Ja’Marr Chase, who had all 3 of the team’s plays that gained more than 11 yards, may be on track, but the rest of the offense has some catching up to do.

Ravens vs. Titans: London Snoozer

Not a lot to say about the last London game of the year as the Ravens held on for a 24-16 win. You had to expect a good Baltimore start after how sloppy things were last week in Pittsburgh. Zay Flowers finally caught his first NFL touchdown.

Derrick Henry hit a long run for 63 yards, but the Titans once again failed to see their offense travel. While technically the home team in this one, the Titans are 0-4 outside of Nashville this year and have not scored more than 16 points in any of those games.

Ryan Tannehill only passed for 76 yards in 3 quarters, but the Titans were cooked with him getting carted off. Malik Willis is not a legitimate quarterback, and I would be concerned as a fan that rookie Will Levis was not the No. 2 quarterback. Willis came into this game with only a 21-13 deficit in the fourth quarter, and we know these Ravens blow leads, but Willis has a bad habit of holding onto the ball too long.

A pair of Willis scrambles led to a punt, the Ravens tacked on a field goal to make it 24-13 with 4:16 left, then it was time for one of the saddest field goal drives you’ll ever see as Baltimore was flagged 4 times and the Titans also had a 5th penalty called. Willis somehow took 5 sacks on the drive and 4 of them still counted as only 1 was voided by a Baltimore penalty. That’s how you end up wasting 1st-and-goal from the 1, but I’m not sure if kicking the field goal on 3rd-and-goal from the 20 was the right call with 41 seconds left. Things were so bleak that you might as well try for the touchdown that close.

What’s Willis going to do from midfield with 35 seconds left if the onside kick was recovered? Take 3 more sacks? But the onside kick was free of drama and the game ended with the Ravens moving back to first place with a 4-2 record. We’ll see what the injury is for Tannehill, but things are slipping away early for the Titans (2-4), who have a bye week.

Panthers at Dolphins: The Team Who Scores, the Team Who Loses

The Panthers jumped out to a 14-0 lead, scored a late pick-six, and they still lost by 21 points to fall to 0-6.

This team feels like a money laundering scheme that involves Adam Thielen catches. He’s the only part of the team that goes off consistently as he had another 11 catches for 115 yards and a touchdown.

But the Miami offense is just too good for opponents like this. Even after going three-and-out twice in the first quarter, the Dolphins scored 5 touchdowns on their next 6 drives with Tyreek Hill dominating deep (163 yards), and Raheem Mostert rushed for 115 yards and scored 3 more touchdowns with De’Von Achane out.

With the Eagles next week and the Week 9 game in Germany with Kansas City looming, I can’t wait to see how Miami does against last year’s Super Bowl teams. Carolina is not the litmus test.

Commanders at Falcons: Ridder the Enigma

The good news: Desmond Ridder stacked 300-yard passing games after he had the best game of his career last week against Houston. The bad news: Ridder threw 3 interceptions in this 24-16 home loss that may have been the worst game of his career.

Sam Howell took another 5 sacks and the Washington running game only averaged 3.3 yards per carry on the way to 193 total yards of offense, so it was not the defense that lost this game for Atlanta. Washington had an 11-yard touchdown drive after a long punt return, and in the third quarter, Washington had a 24-yard touchdown drive after Ridder was picked on a great diving read by Kyle Fuller.

But Washington never scored again, bringing Atlanta to 15 straight games without allowing more than 25 points, the longest streak in the NFL since the 2013-14 49ers (17 games).

The Falcons were able to get one touchdown, missed the 2-point conversion, but it felt like a one-score game with Atlanta unable to do anything for a solid hour. There were numerous chances, including one where a legit roughing the passer call for Ridder wiped out a fumble. That led to a drive that reached the 2-yard line, but Ridder ended up throwing an interception in the end zone with 5:11 left.

The next chance was a quick 4-and-out, then the final drive ended with Ridder’s third interception in desperate times with 26 seconds left after the Falcons reached the Washington 34.

Rough days like this will happen to the best of them, but it sure is weird to see an Atlanta team let down by its offense while the defense was more than serviceable, especially in the fourth quarter.

Patriots at Raiders: Belichick Really Can’t Beat McDaniels

You have to admit it’s pretty amusing that Bill Belichick is 0-3 against Josh McDaniels as a head coach. Now, McDaniels has had home-field advantage for every game, he’s had the better quarterback in the last two games in Vegas, and they have all been one-score games where a turnover (or something on the order of one) killed the Patriots at the end.

This one went McDaniels’ way again even after Jimmy Garoppolo left with a back injury that was serious enough to land him at the local hospital. But Brian Hoyer did a respectable job in his place (6-of-10 for 102 yards), and that means it was two former New England quarterbacks who helped drop the Patriots to 1-5.

At least it was close this week. Mac Jones had an uneven game that will be hard to analyze. He did throw another terrible interception this week, but then he also threw one of the best passes in his career on a 2nd-and-11 deep in his own end with a 19-17 deficit. DeVante Parker dropped it. The drop wasn’t overly egregious and it wasn’t a simple play, but you have to make one like that for your team. You have to wonder why this team settled for a poor man’s DeAndre Hopkins when they could have had the real thing this year. Hopkins makes that catch.

After an inexcusable delay of game – Patriots were sloppy again this week – made it 3rd-and-15, Jones was swarmed in his end zone and Maxx Crosby was there on the sack for a safety.

What an awful way to blow a cover as the Patriots were +2.5. Their only hope was recovering an onside kick on the free kick, but that didn’t work, and the game was over with the Raiders winning 21-17.

It is also amusing that it took a safety to get the Raiders (3-3) to 20 points for the first time all season. But the Patriots had no sacks on defense, and while they got their first takeaway since Week 2, it was a fluky interception on a deflected pass that wasn’t Garoppolo’s fault.

The better team won, and dare I say, the better coach when these two meet up won again.

Saints at Texans: Carr (Repeatedly) Fails First GWD Attempt in New Orleans

One thing I got right about the 2023 Saints is that they are providing Derek Carr with the best defense of his career. The Saints finally became the first team to intercept rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud, but they unfortunately fumbled it right back to him on the play in the first quarter, and the Texans scored a touchdown on that drive to boot.

But the Texans only put up one field goal after halftime, so this game was in Derek Carr’s wheelhouse for another fourth-quarter comeback. This was actually his first attempt of the season as he was injured in the Green Bay loss when the Saints blew a 17-0 lead in the final quarter.

This was supposed to be the spot where Carr would make his mark in New Orleans, but instead, the Saints went scoreless on their last 3 drives in a 20-13 game:

  • Kicker Blake Grupe picked a bad time to have the shortest miss of his season from 29 yards out with 11:07 left. Remember, he’s the kicker who missed from 46 yards to win the game in Green Bay.
  • On a 4th-and-4 at the Houston 15, Carr checked down to Alvin Kamara in the backfield on a play that required a Hulk-like effort to break tackles. Kamara came up short and the Saints turned it over on downs with 4:31 left.
  • Needing to go 85 yards in the final 2:41, Carr got to the Houston 24 before throwing 4 incompletions, including a pick on fourth down just shy of the end zone on a pass intended for Michael Thomas (still without a touchdown this year) with 16 seconds left.

The Saints are 3-3 and not in any real danger with the entire NFC South losing on Sunday. But this team has not scored more than 20 points in 5-of-6 games this year. The Carr-led offense, despite some solid talent at the skill players, is not working out. It also has been outperformed by a Houston offense with a rookie quarterback and some unheralded receivers that had lower expectations this year.

Carr underachieving doesn’t necessarily surprise me, but I thought he’d be better than this.

Vikings at Bears: Hoodwinked, Bamboozled, Led Astray

The Bears (+3) were my upset pick for the week, so this dud at home was a bummer. I knew Justin Fields was out of games against the Washington and Denver defenses, but I did not think highly of Minnesota’s defense either. Naturally, Fields threw for 58 yards on 10 throws and took 4 sacks before leaving the game with a dislocated thumb on his throwing hand.

When you have a quarterback you know is a high injury risk, how do you not do more at backup quarterback than Tyson Bagent?

On the undrafted rookie’s second dropback, he was strip-sacked, and the Vikings returned it for a 43-yard touchdown to take a 19-6 lead in the third quarter. But the Vikings did not do a good job of putting the game away without Justin Jefferson available.

It looked like Bagent might lead a 13-point comeback in the fourth quarter after he ran in his first NFL touchdown with 7:46 left. The Vikings went three-and-out after barely burning a minute off the clock. The Bears were slow rolling their drive down the field with the running game featured, but eventually, Bagent had to throw.

Correction: Chicago chose to throw deep for D.J. Moore just shy of the 2-minute warning in a spot that would have been fine for another run. No need to rush. Bagent badly underthrew the pass and it was intercepted by Minnesota. The Bears had all their timeouts, but after getting one first down, Minnesota was able to run out the rest of the clock with Chicago never getting another chance.

The Vikings (2-4) are still a bad team, but the Bears (1-5) are the worst in the NFC North. I won’t drink the Kool-Aid again this year.

Cardinals at Rams: Cooper Kupp Still Top Dog

Tyreek Hill has an amazing highlight reel of big plays and still has top-end speed. Justin Jefferson is doing incredible things for a young receiver. But for my money, Cooper Kupp is still the best all-around wide receiver in the league right now. No one is more consistent at producing in any matchup, and he does it at every level of the field. Only durability is a knock on him.

But one team that did have his number was Arizona. Kupp played in 31 games since 2021 and the only 4 games where he was held under 79 yards were all against Arizona. But that was a different coaching staff and roster.

Against Jonathan Gannon’s no-name defense, Kupp was dominant again with 148 yards and his first touchdown of 2023. Matthew Stafford only had 78 yards to his other receivers in the game. But the Rams also ran the ball very well with 179 yards.

Despite those big performances and the final score (26-9), this was a 16-9 game to start the fourth quarter with the Cardinals 12 yards away from the end zone. But Joshua Dobbs was intercepted on that play, and the Rams turned that into a long touchdown drive that was almost ruled a fumble through the end zone. But that was definitely a touchdown.

The Rams added a field goal after a strip-sack of Dobbs, so the turnovers have caught up with this offense, and the thin roster made thinner by injuries is starting to get exposed on a weekly basis.

Now we remember why the Cardinals were the favorites to land the No. 1 pick.

Next week: Maybe what this season needs is another classic Herbert-Mahomes matchup in Week 7. It would be even better if the Chargers beat Dallas on Monday night but I’m not so sure about that one. Early on Sunday, what are we getting excited about? Cleveland eating Gardner Minshew for lunch? The Raiders in Chicago after Garoppolo and Fields left Sunday’s games injured? No, it’s Lions-Ravens as the highlight of the 1 p.m. slot. We’ll see which Baltimore team shows up. Sunday night actually nailed it for a change with Dolphins-Eagles. Plenty of intrigue as Philadelphia’s sloppy play caught up to them in a loss, and we have never seen the Hurts-era Eagles beat a good team with a top quarterback like the Dolphins have going right now.

NFL Stat Oddity: Week 3

~ Scott ~ 17 Comments

Once is an accident. Twice is a coincidence. Three times is a pattern.

The NFL’s 2023 season hit a pivotal Week 3 that should start to separate the fakes from the competitors after a couple of interesting weeks. By Sunday’s end, a few things are emerging as clear:

  • The Chiefs and Bills are still contenders, but Miami has the best speed in the league and one of the only coaches with a brain.
  • The 49ers are still a cut above Dallas in the NFC, and we’ll see how the Eagles look Monday night in a game with Tampa Bay (!) that should produce just the 3rd team to start 3-0 this year, joining the Dolphins and 49ers.
  • The 2021 quarterback draft class is a major mess with Zach Wilson and Mac Jones dueling to a 15-10 finish, Justin Fields didn’t throw for 100 yards in a 41-10 loss in Kansas City, and even Trevor Lawrence is just 1-2 this year after the Jaguars looked bad in another loss to the Texans.

After Week 2 was so high scoring and close (12 games had a comeback opportunity), you had to expect some regression with more blowouts and lower scores, especially with an underwhelming schedule that had half the games with a team favored by a touchdown or better.

But three teams lost as a favorite of at least 7.5 points: Jaguars vs. Texans (+7.5), Ravens vs. Colts (+8.5), and Cowboys vs. Cardinals (+12.5). That hasn’t happened in one week since Week 10 of the 2021 season. There were only 7 such upsets all of last season.

There were also just 6 games with a comeback opportunity (MNF pending) and 3 games with a fourth-quarter lead change, but at least Chargers-Vikings lived up to expectations.

But we have to start with the game that presents something that hasn’t been done in nearly 60 years.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Broncos at Dolphins: Speed Kills Denver

It was always reasonable to expect Denver to regress on defense and improve on offense under Sean Payton this year, but Sweet Christ, 70-20?

Unless they were putting a jetpack on Justin Simmons and Frank Clark, who missed the game, and everyone else on the Denver defense, they weren’t catching these Miami speedsters on Sunday. The Broncos even caught a break with Jaylen Waddle out with a concussion.

We knew the Dolphins had the best offensive performance in Week 1 against the Chargers, but the hype train at least should have slowed down a bit after a closer to average game in New England with 24 points.

But on Sunday, the Dolphins made history in their home opener with 10 touchdowns on their 14 possessions. These were the only teams to score 70 points in NFL history before Sunday:

  • 1940 Bears at Redskins in NFL Championship Game (W 73-0): 7 rushing TDs, 3 interception return TDs, 1 passing TD
  • 1950 Rams vs. Colts (W 70-27): 5 passing TDs, 4 rushing TDs, 1 kick return TD
  • 1966 Redskins vs. Giants (W 72-41): 4 rushing TDs, 3 passing TDs, 1 fumble return TD, 1 punt return TD, 1 interception return TD, 1 FG
  • 2023 Dolphins vs. Broncos (W 70-20): 5 passing TDs, 5 rushing TDs

If you’re thinking what I’m thinking from this breakdown, then we have history here. The Dolphins just set the record for most offensive points in an NFL game with 70.

The 1940 Bears didn’t get to 73 without the defense scoring 3 TDs. The 1950 Rams had a kick return early in the game to help them get to 70. The 1966 Redskins also had 3 return TDs, and they decided to kick their field goal at the end while already leading 69-41.

The Dolphins were all offensive scores, and they got to 70 with 8:01 left to play. They even had a chance to tie the official record of 73 points with a late field goal but passed. While there were 2 drives that started inside the Denver 8, there was no shortage of yards in this performance either.

Miami’s 726 yards only trail the 1951 Rams, who had 735 yards against the New York Yanks in that infamous Friday game where Norm Van Brocklin passed for 554 yards. Third place is a Pittsburgh team that gained 683 yards (what Matt Canada calls September) against the Cardinals in 1958, so these are the only two 700-yard games in NFL history.

It was an incredible display of speed as Miami had 350 rushing yards and 376 net passing yards. Even backup quarterback Mike White threw a 68-yard touchdown pass in the game. Tua Tagovailoa was 23-of-26 for 309 yards and 4 touchdowns.

But the biggest surprises were the running backs. One thing that was lacking about Mike McDaniel’s offense last year was the running game, which you thought might be strong as he brought over the Shanahan system to Miami. But it rarely delivered, and it also was nothing special in LA in Week 1.

But this game unleashed Raheem Mostert and rookie Devon Achane. It was actually Achane who finished with 203 rushing yards in this one, but both backs scored 4 touchdowns, an incredible feat. Achane had 233 yards from scrimmage and 4 touchdowns. Mostert had 142 yards from scrimmage and 3 touchdowns. That is a combined 375 yards and 8 touchdowns from the two running backs.

If you can name a better running back performance from a team in NFL history, I’d love to hear it. I used to think the gold standard was when Priest Holmes and Derrick Blaylock combined for 316 yards and 8 touchdowns for the 2004 Chiefs against Atlanta.

Was this the best offensive performance in NFL history? I think for purely scoring points, it would be hard to argue against the only offense to put in 70 points. Miami’s 10.22 yards per play is also the 3rd-best mark on record, only trailing the 1972 Jets (10.61) against the Colts in that classic Joe Namath-Johnny Unitas shootout, and the 2017 Chiefs (10.30) managed to do it in a losing effort against the Jets.

The only game I could really put above it is what the 2021 Bills did in the wild card round against the Patriots. They scored 47 points (2 XP failed) by scoring 7 touchdowns on their 7 drives. The 8th possession was just a kneeldown drive with the game decided. Given they did that in a playoff game where it was single-digit temperatures, and against a Belichick defense (the guy who held Miami with Waddle to 24 last week), I’d have to give 7-for-7 an edge. We cannot pretend Miami did not get stopped on a 4-and-out in their own territory in the 2nd quarter, and the offense went 3-and-out in the first possession after Tua exited. It wasn’t as perfect as what Buffalo did.

Go figure, that sets up a nice argument for Bills-Dolphins in Week 4.

But the speed and inability of Denver to keep up with those players was a sight to behold. We barely even acknowledged Denver, which got one of the best halves out of Russell Wilson, and they still trailed 35-13 for it. Brutal game for Denver to fall to 0-3 and basically become an afterthought at this point.

Hard to imagine this won’t be the peak of the season for Miami’s offense, but with so many big games left to come, they are going to be a big factor this year. I thought it’d be the Jets stepping up in the AFC East, but instead, it’s looking like Miami putting speed to the scheme of one of the only coaches with a working brain can deliver devastating, historic results like this.

Cowboys at Cardinals: Choke for Caleb Over?

You know, Mike McCarthy was fired in Green Bay after losing as a 13.5-point favorite against Arizona in 2018. I’m not saying it will happen again in Dallas, but man, this was a bad loss for a team that looked so good in the first two weeks.

You can’t blame Trevon Diggs going down in practice with a season-ending ACL injury for allowing 222 rushing yards, or Dak Prescott only leading one touchdown drive and having multiple 5-minute field goal drives.

This was just a bad performance by Dallas, and it fuels why people do not trust this team for the Super Bowl. On the other hand, it was a genuinely good performance by the Cardinals, who do not look like the worst team in football as many of us expected. The fact that they had a 4th-quarter lead in every game against the NFC East this year and look fairly competent on both sides of the ball is blowing my mind right now.

Joshua Dobbs actually had a good game here. He was 17-of-21 for 189 yards and a touchdown pass. He only took 2 sacks against that pass rush while rushing for 55 yards himself, including a 44-yard run.

We’ve seen several games this year already where a team failed in the 4-minute offense and had to give the ball back. The Cardinals did not blink when Dallas cut the lead to 21-16. They hit their biggest play of the game on the next snap from scrimmage for 69 yards, and Dobbs threw a touchdown to make it 28-16 with 7:22. The only complaint about that drive is it only took 2:11 off the clock.

That was an interesting part of this game. Arizona never had a drive that lasted longer than 4:17. Dallas had 6 drives that took at least 4:20 off the clock, and they came away with just 16 points on those drives. When you only have 8 possessions in the game and you waste so much of that time to get 16 points, it’s no wonder this ended up being a loss. Prescott’s interception with 3:00 left was the final nail in the coffin.

I have no idea how many games Arizona will win the rest of the year, but this team is nowhere near as bad as most expected. They even have a chance to get better as Dobbs gains experience.

Colts at Ravens: Gay Outshines Tucker

When these teams met in 2021, the Ravens came back from a 25-9 deficit in the fourth quarter to win in overtime in a game where Carson Wentz and Lamar Jackson both passed for over 400 yards. But the Colts would have won in regulation if Rodrigo Blankenship didn’t miss a 47-yard field goal, a miss that arguably cost the Colts (9-8) a playoff berth that year.

Consider this some payback. Colts kicker Matt Gay made NFL history by becoming the first kicker to make four field goals of 50-plus yards in a game (54, 53, 53, 53).

He upstaged the GOAT, Justin Tucker, in his own building. Tucker had a chance to add to his legacy with a 61-yard field goal to win the game at the buzzer, but while his kick was straight as usual, he was a little short this time.

The game went to overtime, but there were a lot of mistakes by both teams before and after that point. The Ravens were missing almost half their starters and they wasted a solid Lamar Jackson performance as he passed for 202 yards, and rushed for 101 yards and two scores.

The Colts were without Anthony Richardson (concussion), but Gardner Minshew was game with a ton of scrambling around. However, his Orlovsky moment in a 17-16 game seemed like it would doom the Colts when Minshew stepped on the back boundary line for a safety to give the Ravens a 19-16 lead with 2:03 left.

Those 3 seconds helped buy the Colts a key clock stoppage. While the Ravens put away Cincinnati in the 4-minute offense last week, they did not do it this time, going 3-and-out and giving Minshew a shot at redemption. Gay’s 53-yard field goal tied it at 19 with 57 seconds left.

Jackson gave Tucker a shot from 61, but there was a 10-yard sack during the drive that put the Ravens in a bind and made the attempt that long.

In overtime, first downs were hard to come by for both offenses. On a 4th-and-3 at the Indy 47, Jackson was unable to connect with Zay Flowers, turning the ball over at midfield with 3:21 left. Baltimore’s run defense showed some cracks, and Zack Moss got the call on the next 4 plays as Shane Steichen was content with setting up Gay for another long kick.

But from 53 yards out once again, Gay was good and delivered a surprising 22-19 win for the Colts, who technically jump ahead of Baltimore in the AFC standings for now with this win at 2-1.

Not sure anyone in Baltimore is going to panic after a loss like this with so many starters out, but the Colts should feel optimistic after this one. This is not the kind of game they win last year with Jeff Saturday.

Texans at Jaguars: The AFC South Circus Continues

The Titans tend to own the Texans. The Texans tend to own the Jaguars. The Jaguars own the Colts outside of Indy. This is the kind of circus that goes on in the AFC South, arguably the most unclear division race at this point.

I was nervous about Jacksonville going into the season, but I thought holding the Chiefs to 17 last week was at least a sign the defense would be okay and would lead an effort to get back on track by beating Houston.

Whoops. The Texans were up 17-0 in the first half, then even when the Jaguars looked to get back into it, they let a fullback return a pop-up kickoff 85 yards for a touchdown. Between that and the fumble return touchdown in Indy in Week 1, the Jaguars have allowed two of the weirdest, ugliest, least aware touchdowns of the 2023 season.

But whether this was just another embarrassing loss to Houston or something worse, the Jaguars should be worried. Like last week, Trevor Lawrence again struggled with his new connection to Calvin Ridley. The defense let C.J. Stroud complete 20-of-30 passes for 280 yards and 2 touchdowns while failing to sack him despite the Texans not having four offensive line starters again.

Maybe Stroud is going to be a good one, but the Jaguars have some questions to answer as they sit in last place of the division they were expected to win with relative ease.

Chargers at Vikings: Staying on Brand

It took some time to get there, but Chargers-Vikings was the back-and-forth shootout with multiple lead changes (and head-scratching decisions) that you would have expected from these teams.

You knew both teams would do their best to try losing the game, and they did not disappoint there. In the end, Minnesota’s close-game regression was too strong for Chargering.

But before we get there, let’s first go over how new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore is not afraid to try different things with the Chargers. In Week 1, he had one of the most run-heavy attacks in the Justin Herbert era. They obviously dialed that back in Week 2 without Austin Ekeler, and because playing the Titans means more passing and less running.

But in this game, you thought the Chargers would get back to running and using Josh Kelley more like they did in Week 1 against Miami and attack a Minnesota team that was destroyed by D’Andre Swift and the Eagles.

It didn’t happen at all. Kelley had 11 carries for 12 yards and the Chargers had 15 runs for 30 yards. Instead, Herbert had the first 400-yard passing game of his career (405), and he was 40-of-47 passing, the highest completion percentage (85.1%) in a 40-completion game in NFL history. Ben Roethlisberger’s 2014 game against the Colts (40-for-49) is the only other 40-completion game where the quarterback had under 50 attempts.

These numbers don’t even include a trick play where Keenan Allen threw a 49-yard touchdown to Mike Williams. Allen had himself a day, catching 18-of-20 targets for 215 yards.

But after Allen’s touchdown pass gave the Chargers a 21-10 lead in the third quarter, the game got into that expected phase of each team trying to blow it.

The Chargers were up first. They stopped the Vikings but decided to decline a holding penalty that would have set up 3rd-and-16 out of field goal range. Why would Brandon Staley decline that? The Vikings went for 4th-and-6 at the LA 36, and sure enough Kirk Cousins found K.J. Osborn for a 36-yard touchdown.

Throw in an obligatory Mike Williams injury, a near strip-sack of Herbert, and there were the Vikings driving to regain the lead at 24-21 with 11:20 left after Justin Jefferson had his first touchdown of the season.

We’ve seen this movie before. Herbert is still quite good at getting the lead, and he did so after finding Allen on a 3rd-and-17 for 20 yards. But on the very next play, Herbert caught a break when his pass went through a defender’s hands to Josh Palmer for a 30-yard touchdown that proved to be the game winner with 8:05 left.

That is not a typo. In a game between the Vikings and Chargers, there were no points scored in the final 8:05. This is the kind of game Minnesota wins last year but not in 2023. The Vikings had a 1st-and-goal at the 3 and blew it. Cousins tried to throw to Jefferson on 4th-and-goal, but he was short of the end zone and it was an illegal shift anyway. There was a lot of contact too, so it could have been off-setting penalties and replay the down, but no flag on the Chargers.

The Vikings forced a stop that brought up 4th-and-1 at the LA 24 with 1:51 left. One yard wins the game but going for it there in a 4-point game would be quite ballsy when a touchdown can beat you. This is shades of the Patriots on 4th-and-2 against the Colts in 2009. At least this was a yard closer, but the Chargers were stuffed and turned it over on downs.

What ensued is why I tend to trust my defense at stopping Cousins with the game on the line and a long field. I don’t know if the Chargers took the short field for granted, or they were terrified of leaving time for Herbert, but they really acted like they had all the time in the world.

It took the Chargers 52 seconds to move the ball 4 yards. Then watching Jefferson crumble to the ground on a non-contact play was devastating. Fortunately, it looks to only be cramps, but boy did they come at the worst time for the offense. With 149 yards, Jefferson is the only player in NFL history to start a season with 3 straight games of 140-plus receiving yards.

After Cousins converted a fourth down to T.J. Hockenson with over 30 seconds left, he took forever to call the next play. A veteran should have that ready to go fast to maximize the opportunities left. Instead, the Vikings ran their next play with 12 seconds left, and it proved to be their final play.

Cousins’ pass for Hockenson was tipped and deflected to a Charger for a game-ending interception in the end zone. The Chargers finally made some legitimate stops even if it did come with the help of atrocious game management by the Vikings and an untimely cramp for the best receiver around.

But I guess not even Chargering can overcome regression from a historic season of close wins like the Vikings had last year.

Bears at Chiefs: Taylor Swift Could Lead a Team Better Than Matt Eberflus

I’m glad sanity won out, because the Bears should have been destroyed in this game, and that’s exactly what happened. It completes one of the worst weeks in Chicago franchise history after Justin Fields slammed the coaching for his robotic play, he tried to walk it back, the defensive coordinator resigned under suspicious circumstances, and the team facility was robbed of $100,000 in equipment.

Why would the team that lost 12 in a row (now 13) put up a good fight against the Chiefs at home with Travis Kelce trying to ball out with the most popular woman in the world cheering him on from the press box next to his mom?

And yet, it somehow was still shockingly awful for Chicago, which trailed 41-0 going into the fourth quarter and were fortunate that Patrick Mahomes and starters were pulled early. Andy Reid never had a 34-0 halftime lead before this game.

The Chiefs finally protected the ball in a game this year, and I’m not even considering Blaine Gabbert coming in and throwing 2 picks to steal a paycheck as proof of that. Mahomes was 24-of-33 for 272 yards and 3 touchdowns. He had his ankle rolled into before halftime but thankfully seemed to avoid anything serious.

The only thing the Chiefs need to work on is getting right tackle Jawaan Taylor lined up right. He is a target now for the refs.

But Fields finished this game with 99 passing yards, 47 rushing yards, and he took 3 sacks with a pick and a touchdown pass in garbage time of the 41-10 loss. I thought he would do a lot more rushing if he was going to play by his “instincts” this week.

This is the kind of loss that gets someone fired, but the defensive coordinator already checked out before it. The Bears somehow have gotten worse from last year, and they are an underdog at home next week to a Denver team that just lost by 50 points.

I think I already have my answer on how much can a team improve that was the worst in the league at passing and allowing points. The Bears may be in the Caleb Williams sweepstakes after all.

Bills at Commanders: What the Howell Was That?

Every time they showed a highlight from this game it was Stefon Diggs left wide open or Sam Howell taking a sack or throwing a pick. No wonder Buffalo won 37-3. Diggs had 111 yards, Josh Allen only had one inconsequential turnover on a 3rd-and-20 (glorified punt), and the defense continues to be fantastic for Buffalo.

Only a pitiful field goal from 51 yards away with 46 seconds left avoided the shut out for Washington and Eric Bieniemy’s offense. Howell’s game was absurd with 4 interceptions and 9 sacks. That’s only the 5th such game on record with those totals:

  • Dan Darragh, 1969 Bills vs. Chiefs: 4 INT, 9 sacks (L 29-7)
  • Ron Jaworski, 1983 Eagles vs. Cardinals: 4 INT, 11 sacks (L31-7)
  • Paul McDonald, 1984 Browns vs. Chiefs: 4 INT, 11 sacks (L 10-6)
  • Warren Moon, 1985 Oilers vs. Cowboys: 4 INT, 12 sacks (L 17-10)
  • Sam Howell, 2023 Commanders vs. Bills: 4 INT, 9 sacks (L 37-3)

Just one of those days. But my main takeaway is that Buffalo is still one of the most balanced, best teams in the league. They’ll get to prove their AFC East superiority when they host the Dolphins next week after that 70-point stunner.

Saints at Packers: Another Epic Green Bay Comeback Not Starring Favre or Rodgers

Brett Favre never led a 17-point comeback win in his NFL career.

Aaron Rodgers started out 0-26 when trailing by multiple scores in the second half of a game before getting his first win on a Hail Mary in Detroit in 2015.

In Jordan Love’s first home start, he led a 17-point comeback in the fourth quarter against an elite defense in a game where he was missing his best running back (Aaron Jones), wide receiver (Christian Watson), and offensive lineman (David Bakhtiari).

It was just as impressive as it was avoidable for New Orleans, which punted on four straight drives after Derek Carr left with a shoulder injury in the third quarter. But it’s not like Carr was lighting up the Packers. The Saints got a 76-yard punt return touchdown from Rashid Shaheed to help build a 17-0 lead. They also got an interception from Love, his first of the season.

But the Packers kept coming with opportunities in the fourth quarter. Even after they blew a 4th-and-2 at the New Orleans 13 to start the final quarter, they got the ball right back after Jameis Winston was unable to move the offense. The Packers kicked a short field goal on the next drive, then drove 80 yards for a touchdown and 2-point conversion on the next one to make it 17-11 with 6:58 left.

The Saints went 3-and-out, then Love drove 80 yards again with big plays (24-yard scramble and 30-yard pass to backup receiver) for another touchdown, an 8-yard pass to Romeo Doubs with 2:56 left. Green Bay led 18-17.

Chris Olave seemed like he was going to personally put an end to this with a couple of catches for 38 yards. But once the Saints got to the Green Bay 32 at the 2-minute warning, they went very conservative, setting up a long field goal for an unproven kicker (Blake Grupe).

I have to believe this is a game the Saints win or at least take a late lead if they still had Wil Lutz at kicker. But Grupe was wide right on a 46-yard field goal with 1:05 left, and that was the ball game.

The Saints match the 2013-14 Seahawks with an 11th-straight game of not allowing more than 20 points, the longest streak to start in the salary cap era (1994). It is the longest streak in the NFL since the 1993-94 Browns (13 games). But it was still enough to lose this one. After Love failed to get a first down in a game-winning drive situation in Atlanta last week, he led scoring drives of 46, 80, and 80 yards in this quarter.

But again, I have to say either the presence of Carr at the end of the game or a better kicker like Lutz would have been enough for the Saints to win this game. Tough loss for the Saints when they had a shot at 3-0 on a day Atlanta lost.

But an exciting win for Green Bay. We have yet to see this offense in its full form this year, so better days should be on the way too.

Steelers at Raiders: It’s Gruesome That Someone So Handsome Should Throw That Pick

While no one would accuse the Steelers of looking great on offense Sunday night, it was great compared to Weeks 1-2. Kenny Pickett finally had a game with 2 touchdown passes. It only took him 15 starts to do it, but he ended that streak and even hit a deep ball to Calvin Austin for 72 yards that looked good. The Steelers finished with 333 yards, so the 400-yard streak is still intact for Matt Canada, but 23 points and no turnovers will help the Steelers win a lot of games this year as long as the defense plays like this.

T.J. Watt notched another 2 sacks and the secondary picked off Jimmy Garoppolo 3 times, including a few poor decisions and throws. The Raiders scored first before the Steelers ripped off the next 23 points, which was also surprising with the way Davante Adams (172 yards, 2 TDs) and Jakobi Meyers (85 yards) were open for most of the night.

The game might have even ended 23-7 if the refs didn’t interfere with an absurd roughing the passer call on Minkah Fitzpatrick to negate a sack that would have made it 3rd-and-16 halfway through the fourth quarter. The Raiders turned that into a touchdown, then got a 1-yard 2-point conversion after another penalty.

But down 23-15, the Raiders got into some trouble with a false start bringing up a 4th-and-6 at the Pittsburgh 30 with 3:15 left. Josh McDaniels wanted to kick the field goal and I have to agree there. Teams down 8 put so much emphasis on just the tie instead of the win, and I did not trust the offense to get a touchdown from there. Kick the field goal and use your 4 clock stoppages to get the ball back and drive for a winning touchdown.

They did that, but the Steelers were called for a leverage penalty, which is another random call that felt made up. But after facing a 4th-and-4 at the Pittsburgh 8 with 2:25 left, McDaniels opted for the 26-yard field goal. I don’t agree with that one, because he only needed 4 yards, he was much closer to a touchdown, and he was nearly a full minute shorter on time now.

The margin for error was so slim, because one first down by Pittsburgh and the Raiders would be practically screwed. Granted, you don’t trust the Pittsburgh offense to get a first down in that situation, but the chances aren’t bad when you blitz Pickett from the right and leave a wide-open receiver to his left on a 3rd-and-2 for a big 6 yards.

By the time the Raiders got the ball back, they needed to go 85 yards in 12 seconds. Garoppolo left no doubt as Levi Wallace came away with his 2nd pick of the night to end this one at 23-18.

The Steelers, who would be the No. 2 seed if the playoffs started today, get a game in Houston next, so there is a chance for a 3-1 start despite how ugly it’s been at times. The Raiders are basically in a season-ender game next with the Chargers with both teams at 1-2.

Last year, the Raiders seemed to forget there were two halves to games. This year, they seem to be playing with half an offense as the running game just isn’t there with Jacobs, and sometimes Garoppolo loses his mind and throws it to the other team no matter how well or poorly the protection held up.

Falcons at Lions: Meh Bowl

This 20-6 finish between NFC teams hoping to make the postseason was really disappointing. In the days of Matt Ryan and Matthew Stafford, you counted on this matchup to be very close in the fourth quarter, and both teams could put up 20 points at least.

But the Falcons failed their first road test of the year by never finding the end zone. Bijan Robinson only rushed for 33 yards as the run game was shut down (20 carries for 44 yards). Desmond Ridder took 7 sacks as the Falcons had 183 total yards in the game.

The Lions were 4-for-14 on third down just like the Falcons, but at least rookie back Jahmyr Gibbs had 80 yards on the ground in his first big game replacing the injured David Montgomery.

But the fun battle between the top rookie backs did not materialize, and now you have to wonder if Miami rookie back Devon Achane will steal their thunder after his incredible game against Denver.

Panthers at Seahawks: Sensing a Pattern

If any team is sticking hard to its 2022 identity in 2023, it would be Seattle. This team is going to succeed as Geno Smith goes in his attempt to make up for a weak defense. Matthew Stafford, Jared Goff, and now Andy Dalton have all passed for over 300 yards and put up at least 27 points against the Seattle defense this year.

However, Dalton had 58 attempts in this one as Carolina’s running game was shut down and the Panthers had to play catch-up mode offense, never taking over possession with a lead smaller than 9 in the 4th quarter. Still, it is the 53rd loss in a row for the team when trailing in the 4th quarter.

The Seahawks kept settling for field goals (4 in the first half) before finally finding the end zone multiple times in the second half behind a good day for Kenneth Walker and Smith.

Frank Reich did get better play out of his offense with Dalton’s experience over rookie Bryce Young, but the Panthers are still 0-3 and might be looking at a 1-5 start at best in a few weeks.

Seattle’s identity is still probably good enough to stay within a game of .500 at best, but on Sunday, the Seahawks were better than Carolina and the Panthers did not help themselves with 13 penalties (many coming pre-snap).

Patriots at Jets: Same Old Story

For the 15th time in a row, the Patriots beat the Jets. It is the No. 1 thing you can still count on the Patriots to do right, and this time it was aided by the Aaron Rodgers injury. While Zach Wilson did not throw any interceptions in this one, he played almost too safe to avoid that, since we know a pick parade is one of the quickest ways to lose his starting job.

Play it safe long enough, lose a close game, and that will buy some time. But frankly, the Jets are not even looking like a team that may have been great anyway if Rodgers did not get injured. The running game is simply not there. The Jets had 22 runs for 38 yards in this game. The defense is also not overwhelmingly great. The Patriots missed a pair of field goals and did not have any turnovers.

Wilson was able to put together one late touchdown drive to make it interesting at 13-10, but then he was sacked in the end zone for a safety by Matt Judon to make it 15-10. On his next drive, he checked down on 4th-and-10 for a whopping 2-yard gain. But the Patriots failed to run out the clock again, so there was a Hail Mary attempt, and there was a shot at the game-winning score at the buzzer after a ball was deflected near a New York receiver before it hit the ground to end the game.

With the Chiefs up next, the Jets have 1-3 with a fluke win over Buffalo written all over them. But regardless of this outcome, I still think picking the Patriots to finish last in the AFC East was a good bet this year. How would I know Rodgers would tear his Achilles after 4 plays? But that injury and the way the Patriots beat the Jets so consistently should be Belichick’s saving grace from sinking to the bottom of the division he used to rule.

Titans at Browns: This Incredible Defense

Even on a day where Deshaun Watson played his best game yet for the Browns, he still managed to sneak in this homage to Aaron Brooks and the backwards pass:

But the headline we need to talk about is this Cleveland defense under new coordinator Jim Schwartz. This unit led by Myles Garrett is up there with the most impressive in the league through Week 3.

The Browns held the Titans to 15 carries for 26 yards on the ground. Ryan Tannehill barley hit 100 yards passing and took 5 sacks, including a horrible one before halftime without a timeout, killing the team’s chance for a field goal.

The Titans never turned the ball over but were still held to 3 points on 10 drives. The Titans had 6 first downs after the Browns allowed just 6 first downs to the Bengals and 9 to the Steelers. The 21 first downs allowed by the Browns through 3 games is tied with the 1999 Buccaneers for the second fewest since 1966. The only defense to do better was the 1970 Lions (19).

You can definitely question the offenses the Browns have played so far, but if this defense can be this nasty against an injured Baltimore team next week, first place in the AFC North going into the early bye (Week 5) at 3-1 is possible for this team.

It’s just too bad they won’t have Nick Chubb the rest of the year because you could see the impact of that loss as the running game only had 31 carries for 78 yards. Jerome Ford had 10 carries for 18 yards despite another touchdown. Some of that is the way Tennessee defends, but some of the passing success Watson finally had is also a result of the unique Titans.

But if this defense keeps things up, then the Browns might fill the role we thought the Jets with Aaron Rodgers would have this year in the AFC. They’d just be doing it with a quarterback who has an even lower approval rating from fans in general.

Next week: If you can look away from the last 5 games in Week 4 looking like trash on paper, the early afternoon should be great with an early Game of the Year candidate in Dolphins-Bills. No better time for that one with Miami coming off a historic performance.

NFL Week 3 Predictions: This Lineup Sucks Edition

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

After a slow first week, Week 2 was much more compelling and offensively productive in the NFL. But as the title suggests, the Week 3 schedule looks pretty weak with no true standout game and a long list of injuries bringing down the quality of many games.

You know things are bad when there are 3 games on at 4:00 and the best one might be watching the Chiefs play the Bears after one of the worst weeks in Chicago franchise history.

Sunday could be so bad that you’ll actually be looking forward to Steelers-Raiders, hoping for yet another 3-point finish as 5-of-6 meetings between these teams have been.

Monday night could be the best part of the week, especially if the Rams are dangling an 0-3 start in Cincinnati’s face with the Joe Burrow injury situation up in the air.

This week’s articles:

NFL Week 3 Predictions

I had the 49ers winning big on Thursday night, which might just be the start of a week filled with blowouts as half the games have a team favored by a touchdown or more.

Going back to SNF in Week 1, I’m on a 17-2 SU and 11-5-3 ATS run. I’m always nervous about following up a great week because of regression and it’s still early in the year. Week 3 is arguably the hardest week to predict because you are trying to balance which data point to trust more (Week 1 or Week 2).

I wrote about my upset pick of Saints over Packers above, but I also like the Titans to force Cleveland into a passing game that Deshaun Watson is no longer cut out for. I also think the Rams pull it off Monday night, but that’s really a result of thinking we might see Jake Browning at quarterback for the Bengals.

I think the Lions-Falcons game is the one most likely to push this week. Definitely one of my favorite picks for games decided by 1-10 points, along with LAC-MIN and PIT-LV.

Very much looking forward to Vikings and Chargers upholding their brands and delivering some fireworks as one of them is starting 0-3. I favor Minnesota because I just think the pass defense stinks that bad from the Chargers, and am trusting Kirk Cousins at home with Jefferson finding the end zone for the first time this season.

I like the weather (wet field), Baltimore injuries, and Gardner Minshew mania to give the Colts a cover in Baltimore.

My favorite Steelers prediction is for Kenny Pickett to finally throw 2 TDs in a game and for Matt Canada to finally have a 400-yard offensive performance in his 38th try. But for the Steelers to lose because Josh McDaniels and Jimmy Garoppolo light up the defense. But that one should be tight.

I cautiously take the Eagles on MNF, thinking Baker Mayfield turns into a pumpkin this week against a real team even if the Eagles have not been that impressive yet.

I also like Denver to keep it close with Miami as Payton tries to avoid starting 0-3 and becoming irrelevant in a hurry.

Bills-Commanders feels like a wild game I’d stay away from betting on.

Bill Belichick catches a break with the Aaron Rodgers injury. Should be a 15th win in a row over Jets.

If the Chiefs lose to Chicago, that is the worst loss of Patrick Mahomes’ career. You have to beat a team that’s lost 12 in a row and sucks on both sides of the ball. Especially after the DC resigned and Justin Fields was throwing the coaching under the bus. But with him talking about instincts, I love his rushing props this week. I’d even make sure you had bets on 100+ yards rushing for him. Not much passing though. I’ll take the Chiefs to wake up and Mahomes to light up the team that passed him up in the draft for that Son of a Mitch.

I’m big on Carolina and Seattle going over 42 as I think Andy Dalton is an upgrade over what Bryce Young (4.2 YPA) was doing out there. Give me a Miles Sanders TD. Give me Thielen and Hurst over in yards. Give me points in that one.

Finally, I just want to mention that teams favored by double digits on the road failed to cover in 10 straight games before Dallas won 27-13 in Tennessee last year against Josh Dobbs. Now they get him as a 12.5-point road favorite with Arizona, which has led in the 4Q against Washington and the Giants this season. But I’m going with Dallas by 14+ in that one.

But after so much scoring and close games last week, I would caution to be on the lookout for more games like TNF. Blowouts, unders, not many touchdowns. Just a bad week we have to get through.

NFL Stat Oddity: Week 18

~ Scott ~ 5 Comments

After 271 games, the 2022 NFL regular season is over. The simplest preview of the playoffs is that it looks like a 3-team buzzsaw in the AFC (Chiefs-Bills-Bengals) and the 49ers may be tempting fate in the mine field that is the NFC and get to the Super Bowl with a rookie quarterback playing better than anyone could have imagined.

Plenty of playoff articles to come, but for now, let’s put Week 18 to rest with its eight comeback opportunities and relatively low drama. Let’s face it, there isn’t much to say about many of these games, and I don’t want to go into 2023 preview mode this early, so this will be a light finish.

But first, a look at how I did on the preseason predictions.

Season Predictions: Worst Fears Confirmed, But Not Exactly the Worst Year Ever

I always knew I had my work cut out for me after nailing so many picks for the 2021 season when I got 28 teams within two games of their final record. Regression to the mean was coming, and I took some chances on my 2022 NFL predictions with picking the Colts and Broncos to win double-digit games and make the playoffs, for Arizona to turn a messy offseason into another postseason, for the Rams to finish as the No. 1 seed for their title defense, and for the Chargers to unseat the Chiefs in the AFC West by one game.

Even one of my best predictions was one I couldn’t ultimately reap, because I said before Week 1 that my initial run through of the schedule was too kind to give the Eagles a 14-3 record, so I watered it down to 11-6 as my final prediction. Sure enough, they did finish 14-3 on their way to the top seed in the NFC.

At the end of the day, I was off by 2.78 wins on average, which is the same as I did in the 2020 pandemic season. A far cry from the 1.28 games in 2021, but not unchartered territory for me.

Since I had the Bills finishing 13-4 and Bengals finishing 9-8, and that game was thrown out, it probably deserves an asterisk to say I had a second team to the exact record when Buffalo was 13-3 and I had 13-4. But the Bills, my Super Bowl pick, still look good going into the playoffs, and after the Damar Hamlin story, I actually feel even more confident in them pulling together to finish this job. But still much work to be done for the Bills.

I’ll have more articles this week looking back where some of these teams went wrong or where I went wrong. Those West divisions certainly had me hoodwinked and bamboozled.

This season in Stat Oddity:

Lions at Packers: Did Detroit Just End Aaron Rodgers’ Career?

It is 5:30 AM and this is my last game to write about after a long weekend. I don’t really want to go down the eulogy for Aaron Rodgers rabbit hole again, but that could have been the end last night. The way he walked off the field with Randall Cobb at his side, the subtle salute to the fans before going in the tunnel, this felt different than the playoff loss to the 49ers last year.

As for the game, it was pretty much a greatest hits of Green Bay in a big home loss with playoff implications:

  • Aaron Jones lost another big fumble in scoring territory before halftime that the Lions turned into a field goal.
  • Defense gave up a huge 43-yard bomb to Kalif Raymond to the 1-yard line.
  • Some bad play around the red zone (misfires, sacks on third down) left the Packers settling for too many field goals.
  • A terrible fourth-and-1 run was snuffed out by the Lions at Green Bay’s own 32, which led to an early Detroit field goal.
  • Mason Crosby hit the crossbar on a 53-yard field goal in the third quarter.
  • Lions converted a fourth-and-2 on their way to the go-ahead touchdown drive with 5:55 left as Jamaal Williams scored two short touchdowns against his former team.
  • On a third-and-10, Rodgers flinched under pressure and just threw up a deep ball that was picked. Better than getting sacked or checking down for a yard, but he never saw the ball again with 3:27 left.
  • Amon-Ra St. Brown caught a pass in his prostate area.
  • The fearless Lions, playing with nothing to lose, were aggressive and smart in running out the clock by declining penalties, trying bold laterals by design, and ultimately putting the game away with a fourth-and-1 pass conversion from Goff to DJ Chark.

It really is a shame the Lions (9-8) were eliminated before the game started with Seattle’s win, and that their season is not continuing next week. Because this team is playing well and they can score. Jared Goff did not throw an interception in the last nine games this season and he will finish No. 5 in QBR (61.2) on the season. Crazy stuff.

Rodgers will turn 40 next season in December. Peyton Manning, Philip Rivers, and Ben Roethlisberger all recently retired after their age-39 season. Does Rodgers follow suit? We’ll just have to wait and find out, but it really does seem like he’s gotten all he could get out of this run with the Packers. I have some faith that Matt LaFleur can make Jordan Love work, but it will be a lot different not seeing Rodgers in Green Bay.

Titans at Jaguars: Fumbling Away the AFC South

Going back to Saturday night’s showdown for the AFC South, this really felt like some 1990s Tom Coughlin vs. Jeff Fisher matchup to me. The game was a grind after some early fireworks, including rookie Treylon Burks trying one of the wildest laterals you will ever see in a play where the clock was not a factor.

But the Titans ended up blowing a 10-0 lead, the 50th time (NFL record) that happened in the 2022 season, and they failed to score on their final five drives. You have to wonder if they win the game if they just play the most conservative approach possible down the stretch.

In the biggest game yet for the Trevor Lawrence era, the offense wasn’t exactly dealing. In fact, the Jaguars are the first team to pull off a fourth-quarter comeback win without gaining a first down in the fourth quarter since the 2000 Panthers against the Chargers (credit to ESPN Stats & Info for putting that one out there).

A game like this is why I really need to add a no decision column to my fourth-quarter comeback opportunity records for quarterbacks, teams, and coaches. Lawrence had the ball in a 16-10 game to start the fourth quarter, and the Jaguars were already in field goal range thanks to a Josh Dobbs interception. The drive gained 7 yards (no first downs) and ended with a 36-yard field goal.

Okay, but it was still a 16-13 Tennessee lead. The Jaguars went three-and-out on their next two drives with Lawrence going 0-for-5 in success rate (0-for-6 in the quarter).

But after draining more than 5:00 off the clock and barely over 3:00 left to play, the Titans faced a third-and-6. Josh Dobbs had a decent game all things considered to this point. But the last thing he could do was turn the ball over. The blitz came and got him from the blind side and he lost the ball on a strip-sack that was picked up and returned for a 37-yard game-winning touchdown by Josh Allen with 2:51 left. It was close to being a forward pass, and the review was surprisingly fast, but it did look like a fumble.

Huge mistake. The Titans aren’t built for comebacks this year with the weak passing game. Dobbs took a sack at midfield that brought up a third-and-12, and the Titans took their first timeout at 1:46. Right there, I felt like they should have hurried up and ran the next play. If they couldn’t make 12 yards in two plays, then maybe they could use their three timeouts to get the ball back for a second drive.

But when you use the timeout, you are basically putting the game all on this drive, and a false start only made it worse to bring up third-and-17. Then a 4-yard completion burned a second timeout for the Titans, and now the game was going to be decided on a fourth-and-13. I thought that was managed poorly.

Dobbs threw well short of the sticks and the play gained 9 yards before the Titans turned it over on downs. Game over. Jaguars win the AFC South and their biggest game since the 2017 AFC Championship Game. Jaguars come back from 2-6 to 9-8 while the Titans lost seven in a row after a 7-3 start. We’ll see if Mike Vrabel doesn’t fall on the sword for this slide. They already canned the general manager (Jon Robinson) in December.

The Jaguars are going to have to play better to beat the Chargers, but that should be a much more offensive game than this one. Tennessee was tough against the run and the Jaguars only had 10 handoffs for 22 yards. Look for much more from Travis Etienne against the Chargers.

But yeah, I did not credit Lawrence for a fourth-quarter comeback in this one since the game-winning score was fully provided by the fumble touchdown. It clearly was not a game-winning drive either. I’ll have to consider working on a no contest column after this game in the offseason. Similarly, Kirk Cousins should get a no contest for his 4QC attempt against Buffalo since the go-ahead score was that fumble return touchdown. Games like this are tricky and they seem to be popping up a little more frequently these days.

Just protect the ball, guys.

Rams at Seahawks: Playoff-Bound Geno

Before this season, Geno Smith had three fourth-quarter comeback wins in his career, but he had two huge ones this year against the Rams to help push the Seahawks (9-8) into the most unexpected playoff spot of the season.

The Seahawks had to come back in the fourth quarter against the Rams to win 19-16 in overtime, then needed to watch the Lions upset the Packers at night to get the job done for the playoffs.

It didn’t seem likely when the day started, but what has ever seemed likely with this Seattle team? From Geno making the Pro Bowl and leading the NFL in completion percentage to Kenneth Walker quite possibly winning Offensive Rookie of the Year – he was my pick at +3000 odds in an August article – to winning four more games than Russell Wilson’s Broncos to losing home games against the Raiders and Panthers, this season has been crazy for Pete Carroll’s group.

Baker Mayfield threw up a prayer in overtime that was intercepted, and from there, Seattle drove into field goal range to let Jason Myers redeem himself from missing off the upright to end regulation with a 32-yard field goal to win the game.

The Seahawks are going to be a double-digit underdog in San Francisco next week, but you never know against a rookie quarterback in a division game.

Crazy to think we may have seen the last of Sean McVay coaching the Rams (5-12) in this game too. Big changes coming there.

Jets at Dolphins: Can We Just Throw the Baby Out with the Bath Water Here?

I’m sorry, but Skylar Thompson vs. Joe Flacco in a 6-6 game in the fourth quarter just reeks of irrelevant end to the season for AFC East Stooges rather than a postseason-clinching game.

But this is where we were after Miami’s five-game losing streak. They got the proper help from the Bills beating the Patriots, and they just needed to beat the lowly Jets.

As much as I didn’t want to see overtime either, I wish the refs didn’t feel the need to call a phantom horse collar tackle.

That wiped out a third-and-7 situation and put the Dolphins inside the Jets 40. Four plays later, the Dolphins hit a 50-yard field goal to take a 9-6 lead with 18 seconds left. The Jets tried the lateral play, but all it did was go down as a safety, giving the Dolphins (-3.5) perhaps the most unearned, inexplicable cover of the season in a 11-6 final.

Miami gets the rubber match in Buffalo next week. They probably will give the Bills a better game than the Steelers would have, but if Tua Tagovailoa cannot go, then it is not an attractive matchup in my book. The AFC East was awfully close to sending just one team to the playoffs, but we’ll see what the Dolphins can do in Buffalo.

Ravens at Bengals: The Settled AFC North

We can stop talking about the coin flip and unsettled AFC North race. The Bengals won it fair and square this year after beating the Ravens 27-16 in a slog of a game that saw 28 total possessions between the teams.

The Bengals quickly led 17-0, but things did not come easy for the offense after that. They were fortunate to be facing third-string rookie quarterback Anthony Brown, who threw two early picks before hitting some big plays later.

Really, I’m not looking forward to seeing these teams match up a third time next week in Cincinnati. Not unless Lamar Jackson makes his return, but even then, given his playoff history and more than a month of missing practice, how good can he be? I think the Bengals could have held back and ran a fake game plan in this one to still get the easy win. I’m not expecting much from the Ravens next week.

Patriots at Bills: New England Never Stood a Chance

While it was likely hard for the Bengals to take the field of the site of Monday night’s tragedy with Damar Hamlin collapsing with cardiac arrest, imagine the emotions going through Buffalo players on Sunday. Fortunately, they got the best news possible on Hamlin this week, and they were able to put on a show with him following along on social media.

Nyheim Hines put his name in the history books by returning the opening kickoff 96 yards for a touchdown, the kind of thing you could only script if we’re being honest. Then he did it again later for a 101-yard return just 13 seconds after the Patriots took their only lead of the game. There were four kickoff return touchdowns all season before Sunday, and Hines just added a pair himself. Incredible stuff.

And yes, this is just the second time under Bill Belichick that the Patriots have allowed two special teams return touchdowns in a game. The last was against the 2015 Eagles and those were both related to punts (one return, one blocked punt return).

The Bills needed this too after a shaky start with back-to-back turnovers between the quarters. But Josh Allen found some big plays and continues to be one of the toughest quarterbacks Bill Belichick has had to defend. He finished with 254 yards and three touchdown passes, including a dagger to Stefon Diggs for 49 yards on third-and-10 to take a 35-23 lead in the fourth quarter. That stood after Mac Jones tossed two picks, including a deflected one in the final minutes.

For the third year in a row, the Bills emphatically beat the Patriots late in the year to show who runs the AFC East now. This is technically the second season in a row the Patriots were eliminated from the playoffs with a loss against the Bills.

The Bills are the No. 2 seed, will probably be the last 13-3 team we ever see, but they are still in position to do what they wanted to do all along this year. The AFC Championship Game will even be played at a neutral site should it be Bills vs. Chiefs again.

Something tells me that crowd will be heavily tilted to Buffalo no matter where the game is played.

Browns at Steelers: Pittsburgh Bests Cleveland for 30th Straight Season

What does that title mean? Since 1990, the Steelers have finished ahead of the Browns in the final regular-season standings in every season for a total of 30 straight. Remember that the Browns did not exist in 1996-98 before coming back in 1999.

When you get to face a sack merchant like Deshaun Watson, it was kind of inevitable that Pittsburgh would pull this off. I called it months ago:

I did not call for a 9-8 season and nearly sneaking into another postseason, but that happened too. The Steelers finish the season allowing no more than 17 points in seven straight games, their longest streak since 2001.

It was not the prettiest win. Diontae Johnson came up just short of a touchdown, making scoreless history with the most targets (147) and catches (86) in a season without a touchdown catch. Kenny Pickett also failed to throw multiple touchdowns in any game this season, though he did find George Pickens on a 31-yard score in this one – only the second offensive touchdown that occurred outside the red zone for Pittsburgh in 2022.

Watson took seven sacks, and it could have been several more if he wasn’t elusive. But on one sack, he was clearly pulled down by the facemask, yet no flag was thrown as if the referee acknowledged who he was, sided with the dozens of accusers, and said to hell with this predator. I can’t say I didn’t laugh my ass off at that moment. However, if you ever wanted hard proof that make-up calls exist in major sports, watch the roughing the passer call on Cam Heyward they later bailed out Cleveland with to make up for that missed facemask. Total bullshit.

The fact that came the drive right after the missed facemask makes it such a clear case of a make-up call. The Browns would get a touchdown to make it 20-14, but for Pickett’s inaccuracies on the day, he was money on every third-and-long down the stretch. The Steelers scored to put it away at 28-14, just the second time all season they scored more than 24 points.

At the end of the day, losing 16-10 in Miami was a killer for the Steelers’ wild card hopes, but I think this team would have been smoked in Buffalo next week anyway. I’m mostly just mad that they let Zach Wilson and the Jets score two touchdowns in the fourth quarter in Week 4. That was the real kick in the nads this season.

It was a weird season for the Steelers. They beat Brady, they beat the Raiders, they split with every AFC North rival, and yet they still missed the playoffs despite a 9-8 record to extend to a 19th straight non-losing season, tied with the 2001-19 Patriots for the second-longest streak in NFL history.

Expectations should be higher next year. As for Cleveland, what a joke Watson was this year after Jacoby Brissett played so well. Believe it or not, Brissett is going to finish No. 8 in QBR (59.7) this season. Watson did not qualify with enough attempts, but his 38.6 would have ranked 27th between Aaron Rodgers and Russell Wilson.

Yeah, it’s been a wild year for many around the NFL. But at least we still have the standard of Pittsburgh finishing ahead of Cleveland in the AFC.

Chiefs at Raiders: Quick Work

The first game this weekend had some of the least drama as the Chiefs made quick work of the Raiders to wrap up the No. 1 seed in a 31-13 win. No 17-0 comeback this time. No 30-29 finish. No 37-34 shootout between Jarrett Stidham and Patrick Mahomes like Stidham had with the 49ers’ top-ranked defense a week ago. No, just domination by the Chiefs, who had six sacks.

The game was a letdown in that regard as you would have thought it’d be more dramatic with the way these teams played so many close games. It was only the second time this season the Raiders were not in a one-score game in the fourth quarter.

The Chiefs no doubt picked on an easy schedule down the stretch and took full advantage of the Bills-Bengals cancellation to get to 14-3 and the No. 1 seed despite losing to the next two seeds. But one thing I will say about the AFC West race that never materialized is that the Broncos (5) and Raiders (6) both finished with as many wins as they had blown leads in the fourth quarter. Those teams were absolutely underachievers, but they were also much better than their records.

Things could improve quickly with better coaching in 2023, though it seems like McDaniels will be safe in Las Vegas. I’m not sure how – just losing to Jeff Saturday should be a firable offense.

Giants at Eagles: No. 1 But Not Dominant

Jalen Hurts returned after a two-game absence for his shoulder injury, but it was not the most inspiring 22-16 win over a Giants team playing a bunch of backups and the Eagles favored by 16.5 points at home.

You could twist yourself into a pretzel debating if the game’s final score was indicative of the closeness, but you cannot deny Hurts showed some rust and it just wasn’t that impressive of a win given who New York was playing, including Davis Webb at quarterback. It was the first game all season where Hurts did not throw or run for a touchdown, though Boston Scott scored another one to prove he is the Giants Killer.

But the Eagles let a 19-0 game get to a miracle onside kick recovery away from being really interesting at the end. Ultimately, they are still the No. 1 seed, but I will take the 49ers over them in a playoff game, and I still think Tampa Bay will beat this team if they match up in the divisional round.

Cowboys at Commanders: Howell Bad Was Dallas?

I did not watch a lick of rookie quarterback Sam Howell in the preseason, but I know his stats were impressive and likely the result of good work. Granted, we’ve seen fool’s gold from rookie quarterback preseason stats before with Blake Bortles and Daniel Jones, so take those with a grain of salt.

But if I was given a choice of Carson Wentz or Sam Howell to start against the Browns last week, I would have gone to Howell no doubt. You know how I feel about Wentz. He’s the guy you go to if you don’t want to advance in the playoffs. If he played this game, I doubt he wins it too.

We have our first .500 team in the 17-game era as Washington’s upset win produces an 8-8-1 record. It was an upset with Dallas favored by 7.5 points on the road, and even if the Cowboys were not properly motivated, this performance was a shit show. They were trying to become just the seventh team to score 27 points in a 10th-straight game, but they couldn’t even get to 7 points this week.

Prescott threw another pick-six and was 14-of-37 for 128 yards. This was even worse than the performance he started the year with in Tampa Bay in Week 1’s 19-3 loss.

Oh yeah, it’s finally time for the playoff matchup I’ve been talking about since October. Is there any doubt the Cowboys are going to shit the bed in Tampa Bay with turnovers and lose that game too? I don’t even think they should be favored at this point.

Cardinals at 49ers: Ready to Break the Glass Ceiling

Watching Brock Purdy throw multiple touchdown passes in six straight games while Kenny Pickett couldn’t do it once this year in twice the games is frustrating. You can’t just put it all on scheme and weapons either. George Kittle caught 11 touchdowns this year, most of them from Purdy in the last month, and he never had more than six scores in a season before 2022. It just seems like Kyle Shanahan trusts this rookie in a way he didn’t trust Jimmy Garoppolo.

But we’ll find out plenty in the weeks to come with Purdy in the playoffs as he attempts to become the first rookie quarterback to start (and win) a Super Bowl. He’s already seen Seattle’s defense once and did fine in that game, but we’ll see how it goes. Being the No. 2 seed is pretty good this year in the NFC as it likely means Seattle, Minnesota, then possibly hosting Tampa Bay, the team they were up 35-0 on a few weeks ago.

This could be the year we see a rookie quarterback in the Super Bowl, and let’s face it, in the first 56 seasons there were almost no situations this advantageous between the weapons and defense around a rookie quarterback. No one would really blink an eye if he wasn’t Mr. Irrelevant and a third-string rookie quarterback.

As for Arizona, a miserable season, but salute to J.J. Watt on an incredible career. One of the best to ever do it and he was a force down the stretch this season. Injuries are the only thing that slowed him down.

Buccaneers at Falcons: Stats Over Winning, Eh?

The Buccaneers were my upset pick this week, because there was no way Tom Brady was going to play in a game just to accumulate some meaningless counting records for most pass attempts and completions in a season just because he throws the ball more than anyone in 17-game seasons.

No way was he playing for records over not having his first losing record (8-9) or suffering his first loss against an Atlanta team he was 11-0 against.

But it happened. Even when Brady could have come in at the Atlanta 22 after his defense forced a fumble in a 10-10 game in the second quarter, he stayed on the bench while Blaine Gabbert came in to lead that short-field touchdown drive. It would be the last score of the game for the Bucs, who also played Kyle Trask in the fourth quarter of a 30-17 loss. Total preseason approach.

The Buccaneers finish with a losing record and Brady’s first loss to the Falcons. I’m still stunned that happened. At least Desmond Ridder finally threw the first two touchdown passes of his career, and rookie running back Tyler Allgeier had a big game to finish with over 1,000 rushing yards.

But the Bucs are still beating Dallas next week. Just accept it. It’s inevitable.

Chargers at Broncos: Who Was Brandon Staley Trying to Impress?

You could argue Brandon Staley did as poor a job as anyone in managing their team’s situation in Week 18. He is new to this postseason thing, but Staley came into the game locked into the No. 5 seed and going to Jacksonville next week. I’m not one for blowing these games off with 60 minutes of rest, but you have to keep the big picture in mind at some point.

It’s not like the Chargers were getting productive minutes out of this game. They lost Mike Williams to injury in the second quarter. That’s tough to blame Staley for, though he has been an injured player this year and probably should have been made inactive in the first place. But the Williams injury should have been a reminder to not push for this one, and to definitely not have Keenan Allen in the game late in the fourth quarter catching a touchdown pass from Chase Daniel in a losing effort.

Like, what the hell was the point of that? It’s not like he was trying to get to 1,000 yards on the season or anything. Asking Justin Herbert to throw nearly 40 passes in three quarters of action was just insane on Staley’s part, and all the Chargers got out of it was a loss, no momentum going into next week, and possibly a big injury to one of their best receivers. Not good.

Meanwhile, I got burned badly riding with Russ this season in Denver, but this game was the kind of player I expected to see show up more often. Wilson had three completions of 50-plus yards on his way to 283 yards and three touchdown passes. It was the first time all season the Broncos scored 30 points.

Depending on the head coach hire in Denver, I’ll probably pick them again next year to do well. The jokes have been there all season, but I think we’re underestimating how quickly they could turn things around with the right coach. This team blew five fourth-quarter leads and had plenty of talent on injured reserve. Let’s not bury Wilson’s career just yet.

Vikings at Bears: No. 1 Pick Belongs to Chicago

Unlike the Chargers, the Vikings did this right by getting good work in for the starters before resting and winning comfortably, 29-13 for a change, against the Bears. They even won big without intercepting Nathan Peterman, who started in place of Justin Fields, once on 19 passes. Tim Boyle played too and played the role of Peterman better than the OG himself, throwing two picks on eight passes.

With the Chicago loss and Houston win (thanks, Lovie), the Bears hold the No. 1 pick with a 3-14 record. A lot to say about this going forward, but I think you have to at least work out and interview the top quarterbacks, including Alabama’s Bryce Young. It’s a really bad look for Fields to get drafted high in 2021, then two years later you are picking No. 1 in the draft with him there. That’s not normal nor is his lack of passing production.

Interesting times ahead in Chicago with major cap space and draft capital.

Texans at Colts: Lovie Smith’s Last Victory for the Bears

The Texans already fired Lovie Smith on Sunday night, not even waiting for the clock to strike on Black Monday as it’s known around the league. I wouldn’t have hired him in the first place, but that makes two years in a row the Texans went one-and-done on a coach. That’s some Jim Tomsula/Chip Kelly stuff there (2015-16 49ers).

But I hope it was an act of defiance and a nod to his old team in Chicago that Lovie played for the win in his final game even though it would hand over the No.1 pick in the draft. He’s not losing to a chump like Jeff Saturday, who only beat a bigger chump in Josh McDaniels in his first game coaching.

The Texans led by 10 points multiple times but sure seemed to be in tank mode after back-to-back interceptions by Davis Mills, including a pick-six. The Colts took a late 31-24 lead and it would have been very easy for the Texans to come up short while looking like they tried everything to win.

Maybe that was even the plan, but the Colts kept giving up fourth-and-long conversions. The worst was a fourth-and-20 when an Indy defensive back made Rahim Moore look competent by going up for an interception, seeing the ball go through his hands, and landing in the end zone for a 28-yard touchdown with 50 seconds left.

Of course you go for two in this situation, and even then the Texans could have intentionally ran a garbage play to secure the No. 1 pick. But they converted and held on for the 32-31 win.

The Texans finish 3-13-1, edged out by the Bears and their 3-14 record. The Bears even beat Houston way back in Week 3, so you can say Lovie gave them two gifts this season.

Was it worth it? We’ll see if someone offers a king’s ransom to the Bears for that top pick. Lovie wasn’t a good hire, but they gave him a terrible team to work with. It was a no-win situation this year.

Panthers at Saints: They’re Going to Do This Shit Again Next Year, Aren’t They?

I’d prefer to pretend this 10-7 game didn’t even exist, but I guess I have to cover Sam Darnold getting a game-winning drive in a game where he was 5-of-15 for 43 yards, two interceptions, and a 2.8 passer rating. Yes, 2.8.

This was about the worst outcome possible for the NFC South if you wanted to see major changes next year. Just the last two minutes alone encapsulate why these teams need to clean house at head coach and quarterback. Darnold threw a pick, the Saints totally botched the situation and burned 16 seconds before having a 55-yard field goal blocked, then Darnold made one completion that set up a game-winning field goal with no time left.

It is the first Carolina game-winning drive since September 29, 2019. The streak of 50 straight losses when trailing in the fourth quarter still stands and will have to be broken next season. But if the Panthers keep the same coach and quarterback, it may not end again.

With the bottom three teams finishing at 7-10 and Tampa Bay at 8-9, watch them all think this is fine because they “were close” to winning the shit division. So, they’ll stick with Steve Wilks and Sam Darnold in Carolina, Andy Dalton and Dennis Allen in New Orleans, Arthur Smith and Desmond Ridder (better argument there at least) in Atlanta.

Why would Brady bail on that division when it’s practically a free ticket to a home playoff game in a sad conference? Look at the AFC where seven first-round quarterbacks are in the playoffs, and someone like Kenny Pickett is going to want to crash that party next year. Don’t sleep on Russell Wilson turning things around with a new coach either, and Bryce Young might still end up in Houston.

The NFC is a con and I expect this postseason to play out accordingly. Bet on the LOAT now if you want the best price you’re going to get.

Next Week

  • PLAYOFFS!?
  • A 3-0 sweep coming for the Seahawks at the hands of San Francisco?
  • Was 38-10 a rib-injury influenced fluke between the Chargers and Jaguars?
  • Can Tua Tagovailoa (or at least Teddy Bridgewater) return for the playoffs in Buffalo?
  • Will the Giants finally put an end to Minnesota’s close-game win streak?
  • Can Lamar Jackson return for the playoffs, and will he actually play well this time?
  • How badly are the Cowboys going to implode in Tampa Bay on Monday night? Thank Christ that game will not have Tony Romo on the call. I’ll Manning Cast the shit out of this one.

NFL Stat Oddity: Week 11

~ Scott ~ 11 Comments

Week 11 showed the value of flex scheduling in the NFL as the fifth round of Patrick Mahomes vs. Justin Herbert on Sunday night salvaged a day of bad football where we didn’t even learn that much:

  • The Patriots still own the Jets even if neither belongs anywhere near the postseason.
  • The Eagles and Bills can still win without bringing their A game, especially if they get to play the Browns and Colts.
  • The Broncos, Panthers, and Texans still can’t score points, and the Bears can’t score them when you need them on the last drive.
  • Kirk Cousins and the Vikings didn’t waste any time to make my claims that they are frauds look valid, losing 40-3 to Dallas.
  • Mahomes is still in his own tier of quarterbacks and the MVP race is likely over.

At least it was cool to see a kick return touchdown and a punt return touchdown of great significance in the same time slot.

We had seven games with a comeback opportunity, though the Jets-Patriots game was so bad that it technically didn’t qualify as one in the sense that neither offense had the ball in the fourth quarter while trailing.

This season in Stat Oddity:

Chiefs at Chargers: The Best Division Rivalry Going

It really does not matter that the Chiefs are 4-1 in these Patrick Mahomes vs. Justin Herbert showdowns. Every game had a lead change in the fourth quarter or overtime, and no division rivalry since 2020 has been more exciting to watch than when these two go at it.

I thought the Week 15 matchup on a Thursday night was the best game of the 2021 regular season. Travis Kelce ended that one 34-28 in overtime. Kelce was at it again on Sunday night with three touchdowns, including the game winner with 31 seconds left in one of this year’s best games. The Chiefs in prime time have been must-see TV this year, and with the way Mahomes has played in these high-profile games, it is hard to see anyone else winning the MVP award now.

This one may have sealed it up as he excelled despite not having top wideouts JuJu Smith-Schuster and Mecole Hardman. Kadarius Toney was supposed to be his new toy and he left this game with zero catches and another hamstring injury (story of his career).

Marquez Valdes-Scantling was a huge disappointment with one 18-yard catch, but at least he picked the first play of the game-winning drive to have an impact. After a back-and-forth final quarter with the teams exchanging fumbles, it really didn’t seem like the Chiefs were going to pull it off this time after Herbert threw a touchdown to Josh Palmer with 1:46 left to take a 27-23 lead. Herbert converted a third-and-18 on the drive to Keenan Allen, who made up for his fumble with his best game of an injury-ravaged season.

But it felt like the depleted wide receiver corps was going to catch up to Mahomes in this spot. Kelce is great, but why wouldn’t the Chargers just double him and force these receivers like MVS and rookie Skyy Moore to step up? Remember, it was Moore who Mahomes tried throwing to against Buffalo on the game-ending interception in Week 6.

But Moore seized this opportunity and played his best game with five catches for 63 yards, and he didn’t fumble a punt.

Mahomes also used his legs well as he often does against the Chargers. He had two scrambles for 22 yards on the final drive. After his 16-yard run, he found Kelce left in single coverage again and the Hall of Famer strutted his way 17 yards for the go-ahead touchdown to take a 30-27 lead. The best duo in the game did it again to the Chargers.

There was enough time for the Chargers to answer with three timeouts, but Herbert seemed to draw inspiration from Mahomes’ runs on the GWD. But when he tried to run himself on a weird, almost QB draw look, the Chiefs read it well and pounced on him for a 5-yard loss that went down as a sack.

On the next play, Herbert just tried to force a throw and it was tipped and intercepted on the deflection to end the game. The Tony Romo is strong in this one as Herbert suffers another fourth-quarter interception in prime time in a game where he did do his job earlier.

But Mahomes just does a better job than anyone at the position. A lot of decent quarterbacks can lead one big touchdown drive, especially if given multiple attempts, but how often do you see someone do it multiple times after his defense squanders the lead?

This is already the fourth comeback win in Mahomes’ career where he had to lead multiple go-ahead touchdown drives in the fourth quarter or overtime (2019 Lions, 2020 Raiders, 2021 Bills in playoffs, and Sunday night in LA). Four times.

Do you know how many of Tom Brady’s 52 fourth-quarter comeback wins saw him lead multiple go-ahead touchdown drives? Try one, and it was against Mahomes in the 2018 AFC Championship Game after Mahomes twice put the Chiefs ahead in the fourth before losing 37-31 after the overtime coin flip.

That could have been a fifth time for Mahomes, and this doesn’t include last year’s OT win against the Chargers were Mahomes led two game-tying touchdown drives plus a game-winning touchdown drive in overtime.

Even when the Chargers pressure him better than most, Mahomes always seems to find Kelce or an open receiver on third downs. The Chargers stopped Mahomes from scoring on four drives: one was the Jerick McKinnon fumble, and another was the end of the first half (14-second drive).

The Chargers (5-5) are in a tough spot for the playoffs and likely just lost the division again to the Chiefs (8-2), who should win it for a seventh year in a row, just the third team to do so. But once again, this Los Angeles team is so close to doing something great. The Chargers led in the fourth quarter in both games against the Chiefs this year. If they could ever find a way to stay healthy and hang on, then these standings could look very different right now if the Chargers were 7-3 and the Chiefs were 6-4.

But until the Chargers figure out how to close these games, they are going to play second fiddle to Mahomes and Kelce.

Join the club.

Cowboys at Vikings: Frauds, He Said

I spent a decent part of my week preparing why I think the 2022 Vikings are frauds, how Kirk Cousins was statistically having his worst season, and why I liked Dallas to end this streak of close wins. Minnesota could have been the first team in NFL history to win eight straight games by 1-to-8 points.

Well, the Vikings are still perfect in close games this year because they just got their asses handed to them 40-3 at home by Dallas.

This game was over before halftime with the Vikings faceplanting worse than usual against a top opponent. This was one of the top beatdowns of the season:

  • The Vikings had one play gain more than 15 yards (17-yard run by Dalvin Cook with 5 yards tacked on for defensive holding).
  • Dallas RB Tony Pollard was untouched on touchdown catches of 30 and 68 yards.
  • The Cowboys threw four incomplete passes (26-of-30) and allowed zero sacks.
  • Ezekiel Elliott only had 15 carries for 42 yards in his return game, but he still scored two touchdowns.
  • Kirk Cousins was sacked seven times as the offensive line was overwhelmed by Dallas’ tough front.
  • Cousins didn’t throw a pick, but he lost an early fumble and finished with 105 yards passing (not excluding the 49 lost on sacks).
  • Third downs: Dallas was 12-of-17 and Minnesota was 1-of-11.
  • Cowboys led 23-3 at halftime and won 40-3 with both teams pulling starters early.

If it wasn’t for the Buffalo meltdown last week, the Vikings would have ugly double-digit losses to the Eagles and Cowboys, and a bad loss to Buffalo where they were down 17 points. Otherwise, they would be 7-0 with a handful of close wins over some pretty weak teams they had to come back against in the fourth quarter.

In other words, a Minnesota season you could understand instead of the one we have where the Vikings are now 8-2 with a minus-2 scoring differential thanks to this game.

Yes, this is historic. The 2022 Vikings are the first 8-2 team with a negative scoring differential. There were a handful of 7-3 teams to do so, including the 2020 Browns who were 7-3 with a minus-23 differential.

We get to see this Minnesota team again on Thursday night against a Bill Belichick defense that just held the Jets to a field goal in 60 minutes. Sounds fun.

But watch out for these Cowboys. Using Pollard more can open up that offense in ways we’re not used to, maybe they’ll sign Odell Beckham soon enough to go with CeeDee Lamb, and that defense can get after it. The only thing missing is our trust that Mike McCarthy won’t screw it up in the playoffs. From the team that brought us the quarterback draw with no timeouts against the 49ers, that is still a big dilemma to have.

But what a performance on Sunday to make me not have to eat crow with my turkey and stuffing this week after putting down the Vikings.

Eagles at Colts: The Stench of Frank Reich Was Strong in This One

This game was supposed to be Frank Reich taking on his former assistant and Eagles coach Nick Sirianni, but it turned out to be interim coach Jeff Saturday nearly pulling off a 2-0 start and handing the Eagles a losing streak.

Alas, it ended up being the kind of disappointing loss that fits in so well with the rest of the Reich era in Indy. The Colts blew a 13-3 lead in the fourth quarter, the kicker let them down again, the defense let them down late, and the offense couldn’t answer when all that was needed was a field goal. One that probably would have missed anyway, but at least the chance was there.

The Colts could have taken a 16-3 lead into the fourth quarter, but Chase McLaughlin was wide right on a 50-yard field goal with 35 seconds left in the third quarter.

The Eagles had lost 43 games in a row when trailing by double digits to start the fourth quarter. The last win was in 2010 against the Giants in the DeSean Jackson punt return touchdown game. The Eagles had two wins (2012 Buccaneers and 2020 Giants) since then when trailing by double digits at any point in the fourth quarter, but this stat is based on the start of the fourth.

After the front-running Eagles finally scored a touchdown, Jonathan Taylor and A.J. Brown inexplicably traded fumbles. The Colts drove to the Philadelphia 5, but the overpaid offensive line again faltered, and Matt Ryan took a third-down sack, forcing another field goal attempt and 16-10 lead.

With 4:37 left, Jalen Hurts used his arm and legs to put together arguably the most significant drive of his career to this point. He finished it off with a scramble right up the middle for a 7-yard touchdown run with 1:20 left for a 17-16 lead.

Ryan only needed a field goal to win, and he has been solid with game-winning drives this season. But the drive stalled quickly with Brandon Graham forcing a big sack (no flag this week after the Taylor Heinicke cheapie on Monday night), and Ryan checked down on fourth-and-21 to end the game. Christ, Matt.

The Eagles escaped to move to 9-1, but they are looking might ordinary these days. I really would have liked to see Saturday pull out the win if only to continue tearing down the mythos and dumb conventional wisdom for how coaches are hired in this league. If someone with almost no experience can beat the team with the best record in the league, then what does that tell you about the job? Stop gatekeeping it from people who know the game but maybe aren’t in the right good old boy network.

Browns at Bills: Was Nick Chubb Wearing Snow Boots?

The Browns and Bills avoided a major blizzard with over 75 inches of snow by having the game moved to the comfy dome in Detroit. But if you thought the Bills would light it up indoors with Josh Allen trying to clean up his recent mistakes, you would have been wrong. The Bills actually approached this game as if it was a snow game as the usually limited running game piled up 86 yards each from Devin Singletary and rookie James Cook.

Those 172 yards almost matched what Allen (197) passed for in the game. Meanwhile, the Bills flexed their muscles on defense by holding Nick Chubb to 14 carries for 19 yards. Chubb had never been held to under 2.0 yards per carry on more than three carries in his career until Sunday.

But it was a mixed bag for the defense as a hole as Jacoby Brissett passed for over 300 yards and three touchdowns. Sure, two touchdowns came after the Bills led 28-10, but they still required a shaky onside kick recovery in the final minute to end the game at 31-23. The Bills were also fortunate to recover a fumbled snap and block a 34-yard field goal in the third quarter.

The lack of passing had Stefon Diggs frustrated on the sideline, but he did manage to catch a short touchdown. Allen finished without an interception after a three-game streak with multiple picks.

It wasn’t the kind of performance that would make anyone who jumped off the Buffalo bandwagon hop back on, but it was a relatively low-stress win during a chaotic week for the area with the snow and the awful loss the Bills had a week ago to Minnesota.

Now we’ll see them right back in Detroit on Thursday for the early Thanksgiving game. Weird how that turned out, but you can also probably expect a better challenge from the Lions than what the Browns had here despite the final score.

Bengals at Steelers: So Much for Week 1

This rematch was like night and day from Week 1. Both offenses looked good this time, though the Bengals sustained their performance for the full game behind a big road performance from Joe Burrow (355 yards and four touchdowns) while the Steelers basically fell apart in the second half after their best 30 minutes of offense in a long time.

Nothing sums it up better than this: Pittsburgh trailed 27-23 on two fourth quarter drives that made it inside the Cincinnati 40, and the offense ended up punting on both possessions.

Meanwhile, the defense did create a few picks, including a great one by T.J. Watt, but the offense just didn’t make them count after putting up 20 points before halftime. Burrow, who was only sacked twice after seven times in the opener, also had too easy of a time throwing three touchdowns to backup running back Samaje Perine.

Kenny Pickett finished another game without an interception, but I’d like to see something better than two first downs on the first seven possessions out of halftime. That’s where the game was lost.

I had the stat last week about how Andy Dalton never scored more than 21 points in 17 starts (16 with Cincinnati) against Pittsburgh. The defense can still handle Dalton as last week showed, but someone of Burrow’s talent is a different story. If not for a blocked extra point or missed 29-yard field goal in overtime in Week 1, Burrow would have four straight wins over the Steelers with at least 23 points scored in each game. He already has as many wins as Dalton, who is 3-14 against Pittsburgh.

But the 37-30 final was not lost on me in Bengals-Steelers lore as it made me think of the time Ben Roethlisberger lost a 38-31 game at home to Carson Palmer and the 2005 Bengals, the last time it really felt like the Bengals had an unstoppable offense that could do real damage to the Steelers in Pittsburgh. That was also the first time Roethlisberger led the Steelers to 30 points and lost.

This was the first time Pickett led his team to 30 points, and he can join a nice list of quarterbacks like Dan Marino and Peyton Manning to lose their first start when they score 30 points (regardless of venue). But that last touchdown had a smell of garbage time to it, or maybe it was just the fluke catch by Olszewski to put the ball at the 1-yard line after a defender tipped it.

Such is life with a young, unproven quarterback. The first half had me as encouraged as I’ve been all season with Pickett. The second half had me wondering what this team will do with a high draft pick.

But it was a big win for the Bengals (6-4), who need all the wins they can get with the games they have left.

Jets at Patriots: You Had One Job

I cannot believe I am saying this, but the Patriots deserved this win, and they did not cheat to get it. That was not a block in the back on the game-winning punt return touchdown with five seconds left. He contacted the Jets player at his shoulder. Clean play, and the latest game-winning punt return in a fourth quarter since Philadelphia’s DeSean Jackson did it with no time left against the Giants in 2010.

New England’s 14th-straight win over the Jets was the hardest-earned yet, but it was deserving with the Patriots holding the Jets to 2 yards of offense after halftime. The Patriots never found the end zone on offense either in this 3-3 deadlock, but they should have had two more field goals if not for a bad wind day that caused havoc on the kicks.

Despite taking six sacks, Mac Jones was 23-of-27 for 246 yards. You know, actual NFL quarterback stuff.

But Zach Wilson? The fact that he escaped with zero interceptions on the stat sheet is a flat out travesty as the Patriots flat out dropped multiple picks.

Wilson’s success rate was 1-for-15 in the second half. If we include a play negated by penalty, then he was 2-for-16. His best play of the second half was taking a sack on third-and-10 that was negated for a defensive holding penalty for an automatic first down. The 5 yards gained on that penalty were more than the 2 yards the Jets gained on offense after halftime.

But that drive would end after Wilson threw a swing pass on third-and-1 that lost 2 yards and set up the Jets for fourth-and-3 deep in their own end. They had no choice but to punt and likely go to overtime where this shitshow had 3-3 tie written all over it.

This game needed a return touchdown to avoid a tie, but you expected it to come from the defense after one of these quarterbacks made a mistake. Instead, it came from New England’s special teams as Marcus Jones was able to go 84 yards for the first punt return touchdown in the 2022 NFL season with five seconds left. Incredible. Jones was third in the league in punt return average (13.4) coming into the week and you can move him up to at least No. 2 after this one.

The Jets were pathetic in every sense of the word on offense, and Wilson was a huge part of the problem despite the zero interceptions in the box score.

But if you thought there would be any accountability on his part, even a standard “I have to be better” response, you weren’t getting it from Wilson after the game:

He said “no” as quickly and decisively as if someone asked me if I wanted mushrooms on my burger. This makes Pittsburgh’s loss to the Jets and Wilson look a lot worse than it did the day it happened. They really let this little prick score two touchdowns on them in the fourth quarter at home.

I really hope we don’t see either one of these teams in the playoffs. Give us a Joe Burrow vs. Justin Herbert game any day over this.

Lions at Giants: Felt Like Preseason Expectations

The preseason odds show the Giants being slightly more favored to do something this year than the Lions, but it sure felt like more people were on the Lions going into this season. Maybe it was Dan Campbell’s quotes and Hard Knocks, but the Giants mostly just had that easy schedule going for them and the hope that Brian Daboll could do something with Daniel Jones.

Well, on Sunday he got the first 300-yard game out of Jones this year, but it came because Saquon Barkley was shut down (15 carries for 22 yards) and the Giants were trailing for the last 35 minutes.

Jones doubled his season interception count from two to for and the Lions were able to win 31-18 after Jamaal Williams scored three more touchdowns.

It wasn’t a flashy Lions performance. It was just good trench play with rookie Aidan Hutchinson intercepting Jones in the second quarter to start the ball rolling Detroit’s way. Jared Goff avoided the big mistakes Jones didn’t, and Barkley just had nothing going on the ground for his worst game of the season.

This is much more in line with the team we envisioned Campbell would have in Detroit this year. Not the team that was No. 1 on offense, No. 32 on defense after four or five games. Detroit has won three in a row with more of the defensive approach expected.

The Giants are still okay at 7-3, but you can see how things could spiral out of control here with the Cowboys on Thanksgiving, an improved Washington team twice, the Eagles twice, and the Vikings in Minnesota.

Actually, if Jones doesn’t resume his winning ways against Washington, there is a real chance this team could miss the playoffs in exchange for Washington making it. That’s how bad it hurts to lose this Detroit game, since that was the kind of “winnable” game that had the Giants feasting on a 7-2 start.

Bears at Falcons: Cordarrelle Runs into the Record Book

Without Khalil Herbert available, Chicago’s historic rushing streak did come to an end with only 160 yards after a record five straight games of 230-plus yards on the ground.

But by losing 27-24 in Atlanta, the team did make some more history. The 2022 Bears are the first team in NFL history to lose four straight games when rushing for at least 160 yards. The Bears are also the fourth team in NFL history to lose at least four straight games when scoring at least 24 points. The 2011-12 Saints hold the record with a five-game losing streak.

It happened in what has become a familiar fashion this year. The Bears had another double-digit lead, but that was short-lived after Cordarrelle Patterson returned a kickoff 103 yards for a touchdown, his ninth, setting a new record and breaking a tie with Josh Cribbs and Leon Washington.

The Bears were down 24-17 to start the fourth quarter, but that left plenty of time for a time-consuming drive that took up over half the quarter to tie the game at 24 with David Montgomery’s touchdown run.

The Falcons had their own long drive on the ground with Patterson making the key conversion on a fourth down. That led to a 53-yard field goal by Younghoe Koo, and he did not disappoint this time with 1:47 left.

So once again, Fields was in the two-minute drill and only needed a field goal with nearly a full two minutes and three timeouts. Tons of time. But where most teams would throw the ball against a bad defense, the Bears started the drive with two designed runs. Fields gained 5 yards and took two big hits and looked injured.

On third-and-5, he was late and high on a short throw that was tipped and intercepted to effectively end the game. Now there are reports he had a shoulder injury after running 18 times for 85 yards in the game.

The Bears are 3-8 and heading nowhere with a quarterback who is now 1-8 at fourth-quarter comebacks and 2-8 at all game-winning drive opportunities. The second win was against Houston this year when Davis Mills threw a pick in a tied game and Fields just had to take two knees to set up a 30-yard field goal. Even he couldn’t screw that one up.

Fantasy nerds are eating this offense up because of the rushing points, but how is any of this sustainable when it isn’t winning games, Fields isn’t developing as a passer, he isn’t closing games out since he isn’t passing when they need to, and it doesn’t appear he can stay healthy on this rushing workload?

And nice trade for Chase Claypool. He has 32 yards in three games.

After this game, I’m out on the Chicago passing game the rest of the season.

Hurry-Up Finish

Busy week ahead, so here are the final four games.

Raiders at Broncos: The Most Predictable One-Score Game of Week 11

If you knew these teams this year, then you knew this would be another one-score, low-scoring game. Some great kicking helped things get to overtime tied at 16, but it could have ended in regulation if the Raiders scored a touchdown from the Denver 7.

But the Raiders won the coin toss, and Derek Carr only needed two throws to beat the Broncos with a 35-yard touchdown to Davante Adams. Nice route, but I have no idea what the coverage was trying to accomplish against one of the best receivers in the game.

Carr passed for over 300 yards in Denver for the fourth season in a row, picking up the win for the third straight year to complete a sweep of the embarrassing Broncos. For all the talk about firing Josh McDaniels during the season, this sweep just might be the final nail for Nathaniel Hackett in Denver. They can let this thing play out for 17 games, but he looks completely out of his element.

Panthers at Ravens: To Think They Were Favored by a Baker’s Dozen

I really liked Panthers +13, but a game that barely broke 13 total points? What the hell? This was the second game this season that was tied 3-3 after the third quarter. The Buccaneers-Saints also did it.

There were a few surprise interceptions from big men to keep the score down in this one. Lamar Jackson had one early and Baker Mayfield had one late. Jackson ended up squeezing a game-winning drive out of this one on a 37-yard field goal by Justin Tucker.

Two plays later, the Panthers fumbled on a reception and Jackson turned that short field into a touchdown run and 13-3 lead, which stood this time. No blown lead for Baltimore, and it did extend the streak to holding a double-digit lead in all 10 games this season.

But if this is how the Ravens are going to play at home after a bye with Mark Andrews back as a 13-point favorite against Carolina, then there are going to be some challenges ahead despite the appearance of the league’s easiest remaining schedule.

Commanders at Texans: Powerbomb in Houston

The only two things you need to know from this game are that Houston was outgained 246-5 in yards in the first half, and Dameon Pierce got powerbombed:

Rams at Saints: This Turkey Is Cooked

After losing Cooper Kupp (ankle) last week, the Rams lost Matthew Stafford during the game to the concussion protocol, and then were shredded by Andy Dalton in a 27-20 loss to the Saints to fall to 3-7.

The Rams might as well call it a year and rest Kupp and Stafford. Do not sacrifice their long-term health for a lost cause.

We get into the territory of deciding if the 2022 Rams are having the worst title defense in the Super Bowl era. The main competition would be the 1987 Giants, who started 0-5 during a strike season with replacement games and finished 6-9. The 1999 Broncos finished 6-10 but they also saw John Elway retire and Terrell Davis get hurt, so they get more of a pass with far lower expectations coming into the year than these Rams had. The 1982 49ers finished 3-6 in another strike season, so when it comes to non-strike seasons, the 2022 Rams may fit the bill for worst title defense of all time.

Next week: It’s Turkey Week and the first game (Bills-Lions) could actually be the best of the trio on Thursday. Could even be one of the best all week if the Lions play like they have been lately. Sunday’s schedule is so bad that Bengals-Titans is the only game between two teams with a winning record. We also get stuck watching the Packers in prime time again in Philadelphia. Which version of each team shows up? Who knows, but it’s no longer a marquee matchup in the NFC this season.

NFL Stat Oddity: Week 10

~ Scott ~ 12 Comments

My expectations were for a pivotal Sunday in the NFL, and the games did not disappoint. We saw two overtime games that should be significant, including one of the all-time craziest fourth quarters in NFL history in Buffalo.

There were five teams that blew a double-digit lead this week. That’s the most since Week 5 of the 2020 season also had five, but these were games with crowds. No pandemic football.

In total, nine of the 13 games featured a comeback opportunity. If certain teams fall apart or go on a run from here, we are going to look back at this Week 10 as a crucial week to crafting this season’s narrative.

One thing I’m positive of: the longest drought in NFL history without a repeat champion will continue. The 2022 Rams are 3-6 and you can send them fishing. Given I had them still capturing the No. 1 seed this year despite not repeating, that is going to go down as one of my worst final record predictions.

This season in Stat Oddity:

Vikings at Bills: The Day the MVP Went Away

Instead of trying to take in everything that happened in one of the most chaotic fourth quarters in NFL history, I think we have to start with the big picture of what this game has done to the 2022 season’s narrative.

Maybe I didn’t believe it myself, but last week I said this game could dramatically change the shape of this season.

The races in both conferences: Buffalo has gone from the No. 1 seed to the No. 6 seed just like that. Meanwhile, the Vikings are 8-1 and running away with the NFC North.

The Super Bowl odds: Buffalo has been the favorite all year long, but you might see that change for the first time here with the Eagles and Chiefs starting to look like more attractive options.

The MVP award: Yeah, I think Josh Allen just destroyed his chances there. Six interceptions since the Kansas City win. Three straight games with multiple picks. One of the closest blunders to Joe Pisarcik.

Now our expectations for how we view the Vikings and Bills might change.

At least, my Buffalo views are souring after these last 10 quarters. They seem to be doing the same thing as last year where they peaked with the win in Kansas City, seemed to think that was the Super Bowl, and now they’re struggling in games they shouldn’t be. The elbow injury wasn’t enough to stop Allen from playing, and I’m not ready to accept that as an excuse when it was the egregious decision making and not the physical aspect of Allen’s game that blew this one.

But have my views changed on the Vikings, now 8-1, being a legit contender and vastly improved team this year? Um, no. Not really.

As I have said in past weeks, I still am seeing largely the same Minnesota team we always get, but things keep happening for them in close games, and not always by their own actions. The Vikings are now 7-0 in close games, including a 5-0 record at 4QC opportunities. This is unreal stuff from a team with a quarterback we never see this from.

If you think I’m going to let one of the silliest fourth quarters of all time change my mind on this team, then you’re crazy. For almost three quarters, this was textbook Minnesota in a big game, just like the Eagles loss in Week 2. The Vikings were down 27-10, the defense was getting shredded, and Kirk Cousins had multiple interceptions.

We’ve seen this story before. But this time, Dalvin Cook immediately broke an 81-yard touchdown run, the longest of his career. That was huge.

But okay, the Bills kept driving after that and were ready to go back up 17 points. I loved going for the fourth-and-2. Get it back up to 17, three scores, and don’t go for the 13-point lead and open yourself up to losing by a point. But Allen, as he has been doing since the second half against Green Bay, did not deliver. He panicked under pressure, and since it was fourth down, he had to do something, so he tossed a pick to Patrick Peterson in the end zone. Bad play and bad call only needing two yards and not the full seven for a touchdown.

But then the Vikings had to survive two fourth-down conversions just to keep the game going with another touchdown drive. They did it, and C.J. Ham scored a 3-yard touchdown run. But the Vikings missed the extra point to keep it a 27-23 game, because they are the same Vikings.

Granted, terrible three-and-out by the Bills that barely took any time off. But here is where the game was ultimately decided. The Vikings needed a go-ahead touchdown drive, and in the typical Cousins fashion, it was not going well. He took two sacks, including one by Von Miller to set up fourth-and-18. That’s a game-winning situation for a championship-aspiring defense. Period.

But instead of stopping them there, the Bills try to intercept Cousins’ miracle heave to Justin Jefferson, and the defensive back actually helps Jefferson secure the unbelievable catch for a 32-yard gain to extend the game. That should have been the game. Score some big points for the “knock it down” crowd, because by putting those two hands in there to go along with Jefferson’s one, it helped Jefferson get more grip on the ball and come down with it. Huge mistake.

But even after the miracle catch, the Vikings blow it. Jefferson is short of the plane to bring up a fourth-and-1. Cook drops a possible touchdown on a play where Buffalo was offside that would have counted as a touchdown if he scored. I actually agreed with the quarterback sneak by Cousins, but you have to do the Drew Brees one where you stick the ball out to break the plane, then pull it back. Cousins just didn’t get any push and he was down short of the end zone with 49 seconds left.

Once again, that should be the ballgame. Now, the Bills shouldn’t take an intentional safety in a 4-point game, because then you can lose on a last-second field goal. They just need to push the pile forward a little and get some breathing room. Game f’n over. Vikings only had one timeout left.

Instead, we get the worst play by any offense with a lead in the last minute since Joe Pisarcik and the Miracle at Meadowlands. Somehow, Allen and his center botch the exchange and he fumbles the ball, shits down his legs, and fumbles the MVP for good this year. The Vikings recover for a touchdown and lead 30-27 with 41 seconds left.

Just inexcusable. To Allen’s credit, he does a great job coming back with a drive without any timeouts to force overtime with a game-tying field goal. However, that probably shouldn’t have happened the way it did. Gabriel Davis got out of bounds with a 20-yard catch, but I think he dropped that ball and it was incomplete. The Bills did a good job of getting to the line quickly and running the next play, but it’s outrageous the booth did not buzz down to review that crucial call. If the Vikings lost this game, they would have a legit beef there for sure.

But the Bills moved it 69 yards and tied the game for overtime, concluding one of the wildest fourth quarters in NFL history. These teams are known for a few wild ones, but I’d have to put this right up there with Bills-Chiefs last year (42-36), Vikings vs. Ravens in 2013 in the snow, 2003 Colts vs. Buccaneers in Tampa, and 2000 Jets vs. Dolphins on MNF. This is high on the list for sure.

We get to overtime and the Vikings receive. They overcome a strip-sack that could have killed them in their own end, then a bad throw gets bailed out with a DPI flag on second-and-22. The Bills do a good goal-line stand from the 2, forcing Minnesota into a field goal and 33-30 lead.

So, with 3:35 left, Allen can totally redeem himself here. But we know the Bills are a bit shaky in these situations, which is why I’ve compared Allen to 1990s Brett Favre multiple times. Two wild and crazy front-runners who are a mixed bag in these moments, and they come through far less than the average fan probably imagines.

Bad elbow or not, Allen had no problem scrambling for 38 yards on two plays to quickly get into scoring range. But after getting to the Minnesota 20, I’m not sure what he saw, but he threw a bad looking pick to Peterson again and the game was over. Peterson will come away from this one with a good highlight reel to lead his Hall of Fame montage.

The Bills blew a 17-point lead at home with a fumbled snap on a sneak the lowlight of a game they had no business blowing. They just blew a 14-3 lead in New York last week. They lost in Miami despite gaining nearly 300 more yards than the Dolphins.

This team is its own worst enemy, and I don’t know if Allen misses offensive coordinator Brian Daboll reining him in a bit. Maybe Ken Dorsey, the 2022 OC, is too soft on him and is letting him get away with reckless play the last three weeks. But something is just off here.

So, I am souring a bit on Buffalo and starting to wonder if Patrick Mahomes will ever have to play a road playoff game. The entire AFC East would be in the playoffs if they started today, and the Bills would only be the No. 6 seed. Insane change of events.

But am I on board with Cousins and Jefferson being the Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp of 2022 and believe they’re going to win a bunch of playoff games by three points and vanquish Tom Brady and the Eagles in January to get to the Super Bowl?

No, I don’t buy it. Not when you needed all of this to happen to get a win over a good team.

But are the Bills front-runners who you shouldn’t trust in the clutch? Oh indeed. Are the Vikings enjoying this 8-1 start after years of seeing games go the other way? For sure.

I’ll leave it at that for now, but this is one that will definitely be remembered for a long time. Glad to have experienced it live on TV.

Cowboys at Packers: He’s Still Aaron Rodgers, He’s Still Mike McCarthy

There is no team during the Aaron Rodgers era that the Packers have ripped the heart out of worse than the Cowboys. Not only were there the dramatic playoff wins in 2014 and 2016, but you had a late game-winning drive in a 2017 game, a turnover fest won in 2019, a 23-point comeback led by Matt Flynn in 2013, and now this game that can save Green Bay’s season and make a lot of people lose faith in Dallas being any different this year.

I really thought Rodgers would let hubris get the best of him and he would throw like crazy with Mike McCarthy coming back to town for his first game at Lambeau with favored Dallas, the better team on both sides of the ball.

But the Packers basically broke the glass casing around Rodgers in the second half and let him be the Dallas killer he is, and McCarthy stood there and took it on the chin as McCarthy-coached teams do in these situations.

Meanwhile, Dak Prescott has now thrown three touchdown passes in three different losses to the Packers, though this one was not his finest work. Dak had 113 yards on 25 passes at halftime with two bad picks.

The shocker was Rodgers throwing six passes in the first half and handing off 18 times for 83 yards. It makes some sense. The backs are better than your receiving corps (allegedly). The Cowboys have a strong pass rush. I can see it making sense.

But it didn’t look like it was going to work with CeeDee Lamb destroying the secondary and helping Dallas to a 28-14 lead going into the fourth quarter.

But Rodgers scrambled on a third down for a conversion and that seemed to get him going. He faced a fourth-and-7 in Dallas territory and threw his best pass of the day to rookie Christian Watson for a 39-yard touchdown. That was the game changer. Rodgers showed a ton of trust in a rookie he has barely got to play with due to injury or him making mistakes that would make a veteran distrust him.

The Cowboys ended up going scoreless on their last four drives. Rodgers tied the game with his third touchdown pass of the game to Watson with 2:29 left.

The game went to overtime and I wasn’t really feeling it when Dallas wanted the ball first, but I understand why you make that call in Green Bay. A holding penalty really put Dallas in a bind and set up a fourth-and-3 situation at the Green Bay 35.

I must say I liked the decision to go for it. The field goal doesn’t end the game. It’s not even a guarantee to be made as Brett Maher is no Justin Tucker. A miss there would be awful in giving Rodgers the ball at his 43. I liked going for it, but the Cowboys just didn’t execute the play and Dak was nearly sacked before throwing up a miracle that wasn’t answered.

The Cowboys were about to blow a 14-point fourth-quarter lead for only the second time in team history. You may recall the first coming against Rex Ryan and Mark Sanchez’s Jets in 2011 on Sunday Night Football.

This was probably worse since it can motivate Green Bay to go on a run instead of being left for dead with a sixth-straight loss. All Rodgers needed was one vintage throw to Allen Lazard for a 36-yard gain and that had the Packers in range. Mason Crosby was good from 28 yards on the field goal and the Packers pulled it out, 31-28.

We’ll see how big this one can be as Green Bay (4-6) gets an important head-to-head tie-breaker over Dallas (6-3) now. We’ll see if Watson builds on this three touchdown performance. Rodgers only threw 20 passes in the game. He’s only had two games in his career that he played into the fourth quarter with fewer pass attempts than he had on Sunday. But the backs delivered with 203 rushing yards.

In some ways, it was unlike any Rodgers game we’ve seen before, and yet because it was him sticking it to Dallas and McCarthy taking a bad loss, it was still very familiar football theater.

Chargers at 49ers: The Never Above .500 Club

Justin Herbert (0-4) and Kyle Shanahan (0-5) are now a combined 0-9 in games where they have a chance to go above .500 in their career records in the NFL for the first time.

With the Chiefs up next for the Chargers, it could be a few more weeks before Herbert gets there. But the Chargers put on a decent effort for most of the game while being outmatched and shorthanded.

Now that Shanahan is 48-48 with a trip to Arizona next, maybe he’ll finally get above .500 in the next game. Or the team will lose it after some inexplicable calls.

But that defense was nasty after halftime. The Chargers didn’t have a play longer than 12 yards after halftime. On five second-half possessions, the Chargers punted three times, turned the ball over on downs, and Herbert threw an interception on the first play of the final drive in the last minute.

I still pound the table that the 49ers don’t really use Deebo Samuel the way they should, and you could argue his health may have limited his touches here after missing the last game. But in throwing Christian McCaffrey into the mix, I just think this offense has so many weapons that Shanahan gets confused on how to use them all. Elijah Mitchell returned at running back and got 18 carries for 89 yards to 14 carries for 38 yards from McCaffrey. Maybe that was the right call since the run looked better when Mitchell was given the ball, but that was a big trade to make for CMC.

This offense really needs to do more than 19 points and a fourth-quarter comeback in a game like this. The Chargers were outmatched and yet George Kittle got one catch, Samuel had two, and Brandon Aiyuk dropped a touchdown.

Every week it feels like there’s some excuse about a player returning from injury or someone learning the playbook or figuring out their role. I guess I just hold the talent involved to a higher standard and would like to see more from this team.

But at least they won. And they almost got one of the cheapest covers ever, but the Chargers are a tough team to beat by a big margin.

Seahawks at Buccaneers: Absolutely No Nazi Jokes Here

The NFL’s first game in Germany went from bad on paper in the preseason to decent on paper this week to not so great of an outcome. But it did at least produce a strong contender for funniest play of the year:

Tom Brady also threw a bad pick in the fourth quarter, but the Seahawks wasted the first half with terrible play on third down and no run game to speak of. It wasn’t until the fourth quarter when the Seahawks trailed 21-3 that Geno Smith started to look like the quarterback he’s been this season. He would lead two quick touchdown drives to make it 21-16 with an incredible pass on a fourth down to Marquise Goodwin for a score.

But in getting a second chance to salt away the game, Brady and the Buccaneers easily picked up four first downs to run out the final 3:55 on the clock. Call it a fake close game. Kenneth Walker was held to 17 yards on 10 carries while the worst-ranked rushing offense in football piled up 164 yards. Seattle had run defense problems earlier this season but it looked like it was turning the corner when the Seahawks held down Austin Ekeler and Saquon Barkley in consecutive weeks.

Alas, Brady had his defense and running game working for him in Munich. Julio Jones and Chris Godwin also caught touchdowns and the line didn’t give up a sack. It was probably the most complete game the Buccaneers played all season, and yet it was a 21-16 game with four minutes left.

But Brady running a route was something I did not see coming.

Jaguars at Chiefs: Low Drama Dissection

Kansas City’s 27-17 win over Jacksonville was by far the least dramatic home game for the Chiefs this year. Their first four home games were all decided by 1-to-4 points with the Chiefs often trailing, but this was a wire-to-wire win over a team not ready for shootouts. Still, it was disappointing to see the Jags fail to establish their running game with Travis Etienne after the tear he was on the last month.

Patrick Mahomes threw another four touchdowns and will likely take a big step forward in the MVP odds unless Jalen Hurts does something ridiculous on Monday night.

But my biggest takeaway is how stupid were the Giants to not find a role for wide receiver Kadarius Toney? He never seemed like a first-round pick they needed, and two coaching staffs never found a proper role for his talent. His health has been a problem, but if he can stay on the field, the Chiefs are going to love this dude.

Getting an expanded look with JuJu Smith-Schuster going out with a concussion, Toney scored his first NFL touchdown and finished with 90 yards on six touches, including a 32-yard rush. No other defense will leave him as wide open as he was on the touchdown play, but this is another toy for Mahomes to play with.

The rich really do get richer.

Colts at Raiders: Raiders Do Look Horrible

I’m amused and annoyed with this one. I thought the comedy factor would have been maximized if the Colts pulled this off with Sam Ehlinger at quarterback to go along with Jeff Saturday, the only coach in the last 60 years with no previous experience coaching in college or the NFL.

But if you told me Matt Ryan was going to start this game, I would have said Colts +4.5 was a great pick and they probably even win this game. The Raiders have been that bad at holding leads, and Ryan’s already led a bunch of comebacks this year. He never should have been benched for Ehlinger.

As it turns out, Saturday’s first big move was to put Ryan back in the starting role, and he waited until warm-ups to do it. We’ll need more games to figure out if Saturday is just a genius for this job, or if he was fortunate to catch the Raiders with his better quarterback playing and a healthier version of Jonathan Taylor. Both players were key in the win, and the Raiders might as well just forfeit the rest of season if you’re going to let old Ryan run for 39 yards like this:

Right after that play, the Raiders got Michael Pittman to fumble, which could have been crucial with the Colts down 20-19 in the final six minutes. But in trying to return the loose ball, the Raiders never got possession and Pittman got back on top of it. On the next play, Ryan found Parris Campbell on a short throw that looked way too easy turning into a 35-yard touchdown with 5:07 left. The Colts only allowed one sack in the game.

Like most Vegas games this year, it came down to Derek Carr trying to lead a game-winning drive. Like every game but Houston, it didn’t work out. Carr’s fourth-and-7 pass to Davante Adams in the end zone was defended well by Stephon Gilmore, and no flag was thrown. Both players were fighting with each other, so it was a good no call.

It hasn’t been pretty, but in eight games for the Colts, Ryan has already led five fourth-quarter comebacks (one tie) and four game-winning drives. Ryan’s 38th fourth-quarter comeback win ties him with Drew Brees for the fourth most in NFL history. Ryan’s 46th game-winning drive moves him out of a tie with John Elway for the sixth most in NFL history.

I would not be surprised if I wake up Monday afternoon and see Josh McDaniels got the axe in Vegas. The Davis family is not afraid of bold coaching moves, though nine games would be one of the quickest pink slips ever handed out to an NFL coach.

But is it not justified? He couldn’t beat the guy who was calling this team horrible on Twitter two weeks ago as part of his ESPN studio job. I don’t know how many more games Saturday will win with Indy, but I bet the tightly-connected network of NFL coaches hates this guy and is actively rooting for him to fail. Why? It would make them look silly when they try boasting about their profession where you have to work 100 hours and sleep in your office just so you can punt on fourth-and-1 or call a trick play to throw the ball to your 45-year-old quarterback.

Saturday knows football. Winning football at that. The knowledge alone does not qualify him to be a coach but understanding the game and being a leader should get you most of the way there. Look at McDaniels and his lack of leadership everywhere he goes any time he isn’t holding onto Bill Belichick.

The Colts are lucky McDaniels bailed on them in 2018.

Saints at Steelers: T.J. Watt and Andy Dalton Return to Pittsburgh

If T.J. Watt plays, the Steelers are more than likely to win. If T.J. Watt is out, the Steelers are almost certain to lose.

It shouldn’t be that cut-and-dry for a defensive player in 2022, but it kind of is in Pittsburgh. At least, New Orleans was a perfect opponent for the Steelers to welcome back Watt to face out of a bye week. Andy Dalton is now 3-14 in starts against Pittsburgh, and all he could muster was 10 points of offense in this one after he was intercepted and stopped cold on a fourth-down quarterback sneak in the fourth quarter of a close game.

But this was hardly a Watt masterpiece even though he made his presence felt a few times. It was also a good 2022 and team debut by safety Damontae Kazee, who made the fourth-quarter pick of Dalton in a 13-10 game after Kenny Pickett technically led the first game-winning drive of his career.

As for Pickett, it’s his first legit win since he was knocked out of the Tampa Bay game in the third quarter. It’s his first legit game of not throwing an interception as he made smarter decisions with the ball. He did take six sacks and was limping as the protection was not too good this week, but the run blocking showed up.

The Steelers rushed for 217 yards and even Najee Harris (99 yards) looked good. The Steelers had four different players register a 20-yard run, something the team hasn’t done in decades (if ever).

They won’t all be as easy as this one, but the Steelers proved again any quarterback can look more comfortable if you give him a consistent running game and strong defense to let him know he doesn’t have to do everything drive after drive.

If Watt stays healthy, I still think the Steelers are going to land around seven wins after the 2-6 start. That Watt injury really cost them the potential for some close wins over the Patriots, Browns, Jets, and Dolphins. But this season was never about seriously competing for the playoffs. They just have to get Pickett comfortable and make sure he’s capable of being the guy going forward.

Sunday was encouraging again.

Browns at Dolphins: The Synchronized Dolphin Show

What to make of these teams now? The Browns quickly scored an opening-drive touchdown, then watched the Dolphins score the next 24 points in a game that never got close after halftime. It’s the Browns’ second blowout loss this season after the Patriots got them 38-15 earlier this year. They are 0-3 against the AFC East, but hey, at least they are catching Buffalo at a good time next week…

It was another big game for the Miami offense, but it was by far the most balanced effort yet. The running game that has been struggling finally clicked to the tune of 195 yards. Jeff Wilson had 119 yards after coming over from the 49ers in a trade.

The passing game wasn’t just Tyreek Hill (44 yards and a short touchdown) and/or Jaylen Waddle (66 yards) dominating. The Dolphins had five 30-yard receivers, including Trent Sherfield (63 yards), who caught his first touchdown before halftime on a great effort.

Just like that, the Dolphins are 7-3 going into the bye with Houston at home up next. This team could be 8-3 and sitting at No. 1 or No. 2 in the AFC in a couple weeks. I think it’s fine to be skeptical of them given the recent wins are against PIT/DET/CHI/CLE, but we’ll get a great sense of this team’s legitimacy when they play a six-game stretch after Houston of the 49ers, Chargers, Bills, Packers, Patriots, and Jets. Those first three are all on the road too.

But this offense is getting comfortable and expanded, and that could be a scary thing for the other AFC contenders.

Lions at Bears: Just Need a Field Goal, Fields

I must give the 2022 Bears credit. I’ve never been this interested to write about a 3-win Chicago team in November like I am with this team. They remain a 3-win team too, because despite these historic rushing numbers, this offense cannot set up a field goal when it matters most.

  • The 2022 Bears are the first team in NFL history to rush for at least 230 yards in five consecutive games.
  • Yet they are 1-4 in those games.
  • The 2022 Bears are the first team in NFL history to lose three consecutive games after scoring at least 29 points.
  • Justin Fields is the first quarterback in NFL history to rush for 140 yards in consecutive games, following up 178 last week with 147 rushing yards against Detroit.
  • Yet in both games, he just needed to set up a game-winning field goal and could not move the offense.

When Matt Eberflus sent away for an elite Chicago running game, he forgot to order the great defense too. Those were the two staples of great Chicago years in the past. They could run the ball and play defense. This one only runs the ball, but it can’t even seem to do that when only a field goal is needed.

But don’t put too much blame on the defense for allowing a go-ahead touchdown drive with 2:21 left. The Bears shouldn’t have been in that position after leading 24-10 in the fourth quarter. But Fields threw a horrific pick-six to Jeff Okudah that tied the game at 24:

To his credit, Fields made up for that one with a 67-yard touchdown run, but the Bears missed the extra point and that left the door open for Jared Goff and the Lions in a 30-24 game. The Bears actually had another chance to add to the lead at midfield, but they went three-and-out.

Even after Goff’s drive, Fields had plenty of time to set up a game-winning field goal. But on a day where he only passed for 167 yards, he wasn’t decisive enough in the two-minute drill and he ended up taking two sacks, including one on fourth-and-8 to effectively end the game.

You can praise the incredible rushing of Fields, but you can’t overlook that it isn’t winning games, and all the running seems to be taking away from the development of the passing game.

This offense is not normal. The Bears have just lost three games in a row where they rushed for at least 240 yards and scored at least 29 points each week. No other NFL team since 1950 has more than two such losses to this day, let alone in a three-game period.

Since 1950, NFL teams rushing for at least 240 yards and scoring at least 29 points are 509-13. But the 2022 Bears are now 1-3 when they do it.

Here’s one more record: 2022 Bears join the 1965 49ers and 1966 Giants as the only three teams in NFL history to lose three straight games where they scored at least 25 points and rushed for at least 100 yards. Given we know the Bears were at 29+ points and 240+ rushing yards every week, this is the worst streak of the group.

The Chicago Bears being the NFL franchise with the worst losing streak in history when scoring more than 28 points and running the hell out of the ball is a plot twist few could have imagined. But here we are.

Hurry-Up Finish

I think the early Sunday morning games are done this season (thank God), but here’s to finishing up a great Sunday with three quickies.

Broncos at Titans: The Most Predictable One-Score Game of Week 10

You had to know this game would be decided by 1-to-8 points. Denver is the only team to play nine close games this year, and it’s not like Russell Wilson would have it any other way.

Denver’s offense continues to waste one of the best defenses in the league this year. After building a 10-0 lead, Russell Wilson led his offense to zero points on six second-half drives. Meanwhile, Ryan Tannehill shook off a slow start after missing the last two games and got it done through the air (255 yards and two touchdowns) on a day where Derrick Henry was held to 53 yards on 19 carries. The Titans scored the final 17 points and clinched the game with a tipped interception off Wilson thrown out of fourth-down desperation in the final minute. Wilson was also sacked six times.

Wilson is now 3-3 this season when the Broncos allow no more than 17 points. Wilson was 44-3 in Seattle before he suffered his third loss in such a game (71-9-1 overall).

Jerry Jeudy was injured early, so it was another big loss for the Broncos on offense this season. But the Broncos finished 4-of-17 on third down. If Tannehill can manufacture 17 points with Nick Westbrook-Ikhine going for 119 yards and two touchdowns, what’s Wilson’s excuse for 10 points?

Texans at Giants: Still Can’t Stop the Run

The Giants had a bye and the Texans had a few extra days after playing last Thursday, but that didn’t stop Saquon Barkley from a predictable stat line of 152 rushing yards and a touchdown in a 24-16 win that was never really in doubt.

Daniel Jones also had one of the most efficient passing games of his career with 13-of-17 for 197 yards and two touchdowns. It’s technically another one-possession win for the Giants due to Houston kicking two late field goals while down two scores, but the Giants led wire-to-wire for 3.5 quarters.

Is anyone going to be impressed by knocking off the 1-win Texans? Of course not. But at least the Giants avoided a giant letdown after the bye.

Cardinals at Rams: Early Toilet Bowl

This is the last game in the article but the first recap I’m writing as I want to flush down the biggest turd quickly. Only on Saturday night did I see some blurb that Matthew Stafford and Kyler Murray might be out for this game. I wasn’t even aware they had injuries this week as I do the meat of my injury article on Monday and Tuesday, and there was just nothing there. How does Stafford enter the concussion protocol on a Tuesday? Did he fall down steps or slip in the shower? That was weird.

It led to one of the early toilet bowls this season as the loser will certainly miss the playoffs after both made it last year. Sean McVay was 11-1 against the Cardinals, but there is no doubt Colt McCoy is a better backup quarterback than John Wolford.

Go right to the fourth quarter with the Rams trailing 17-10. Wolford air mails a high pass to Cooper Kupp, and the defensive back clips Kupp’s ankle on the way down, knocking him out of the game and potentially for much longer. I wouldn’t classify it as an intentionally dirty hit, but the poor throw helped lead to it. Kupp left the game with 3 catches for -1 yards, cementing Arizona’s legacy of being the only defense to have an answer for him in 2021-22. Four times they held him under 70 yards when no one else could. Just unfortunate as hell it came to an injury here. You don’t want to see a wide receiver having one of the all-time runs suffering an ankle injury.

But on the very next drive, McCoy converted a fourth-and-3 with a deep pass to Rondale Moore, who made a nice catch for 26 yards. Two plays later, James Conner was in the end zone again and the rout was on. Arizona eventually won 27-17.

The Rams are 3-6 and last place in the division. Stick a fork in them. We’ll have a new Super Bowl champion and a new NFC West champion this year.

Next week: I’ll probably have to pull the plug on my preseason pick of the Chargers winning the AFC West, but not before I give them one last chance in the rematch with the Chiefs on SNF.  Titans-Packers suddenly got interesting again this Thursday night. I hope the Eagles deliver on Monday night so we can talk about Matt Ryan and Jeff Saturday spoiling a 9-0 team’s season with a fourth-quarter comeback. The NFL coaching network is already so pissed with Saturday’s existence. This would be incredible stuff.

NFL Stat Oddity: Week 9

~ Scott ~ 14 Comments

Not to start on a huge rant, but I think when I pull myself away from spending the better part of three hours watching the Steelers fiddle their way to 15 points and actually watch all the other teams on RedZone all afternoon, I just see a lot of piss-poor football this season.

The quarterback play again looked lousy on Sunday with Tua Tagovailoa, the Play-Action Prom King, the only quarterback to hit 300 yards until Patrick Mahomes did it at night. But more than that, I couldn’t get over how many bad fumbles there were. Plays where a player just lost the ball himself in the open field. Bobbled snaps. Fumbles that were then fumbled right back by the defense on the same play. Then don’t even get me started on the plays that are rushed and the quarterback and receiver aren’t on the same page. How is that still happening so frequently in November?

Insert the clip of Vince Lombardi’s “What the hell’s going on out there?”

Really, what the hell is going on this season? The Bills lost to the Jets after leading 14-3. Minnesota is 7-1 after coming back from 10 down in the fourth quarter. Aaron Rodgers threw THREE interceptions in Detroit and lost 15-9 to the worst defense in football. The Rams-Bucs go from 34-24 and 30-27 games last year to a 16-13 stinker that makes me think we should just cancel the NFC playoffs and let the Eagles face the winner of a best-of-three between the Chiefs and Bills.

I just said a week or two ago that this 2022 season needs to be something more than the Bills-Chiefs winner against the Eagles in the Super Bowl. After this weekend, it looks like it might be something more than that, but whatever it is, it’s going to be pretty damn strange.

But once again, it comes down to close games. We had nine comeback opportunities out of 12 this week with six teams on bye. How are the Vikings (7-1) and Jets (6-3) posting such good records? They are a combined 11-0 in close games and 7-0 in 4QC/GWD opportunities.

When does their luck run out? They’ll actually meet in about a month in Week 13. Who knows what trajectory this season will be on by then. That’s also the day Deshaun Watson will be back. Hide the women and children, things are about to get dangerous as fan bases who haven’t enjoyed success in a long time, if ever, are going to be chiming in loudly now that the gap between the top and bottom has shrunk some.

This season in Stat Oddity:

Titans at Chiefs: These Teams Really Are “Just Different”

Despite the Titans being 14-point underdogs with rookie quarterback Malik Willis, Sunday night turned out to be the day’s best game, complete with one of Patrick Mahomes’ best game-tying drives and an overtime finish.

These teams are so stylistically different on offense that it proved to make for a compelling game between 5-2 teams with some history. We know the Chiefs had their worst loss of the Mahomes era last year, a 27-3 rout that is still the only game of Mahomes’ career where he never had a lead. He led 9-0 in this one before the Titans scored the next 17 points.

Some of the ingredients were there again for this to be a one-sided game in favor of the Titans, namely an attacking defense and Derrick Henry rushing for 115 yards and two touchdowns. But with Willis taking over for Ryan Tannehill, the Titans just lacked that extra punch on offense that could have put the finishing touches on this one with one more scoring drive. The Titans had five completions, and none went to a wide receiver.

The Titans also had one first down on their final 10 possessions. Yikes.

But Tennessee’s offensive shortcomings were matched by a defense that put on one of the best efforts anyone has against Mahomes in Kansas City. They really made him work for this one with 78 dropbacks after the running game bombed badly with 13 carries for 14 yards.

Mahomes was sacked four times, hit eight more times, and there was a seven-drive span where the Chiefs failed to score a point, tying the 19-13 game against the 2019 Colts for the longest scoreless streak in a Mahomes start. Of course, Harrison Butker didn’t help with a missed field goal during that run, but the Chiefs were really challenged by the Titans.

The Titans took their 17-9 lead into the final 10 minutes of the fourth quarter, but that was when Mahomes put together one of the best drives of his career starting from his own 7. The drive ultimately succeeded because of Mahomes’ legs. His 20-yard scramble on a third-and-17 was a game changer. His 14-yard touchdown scramble on third-and-9 was another great run as several of his best runs have now come against the Titans in his career. He went for the hat trick on the two-point conversion, taking it in himself again.

But between the big runs on the drive, Mahomes found success when he stopped trying to force the ball to the well-covered Travis Kelce and got his other receivers involved with quick passes. JuJu Smith-Schuster especially had a big night.

With the game tied, the Titans would go three-and-out and never get another first down the rest of the game. You could see how little respect the Chiefs gave to Willis and the Tennessee offense, along with some respect for their own offense. But if Tannehill was playing in this game, I cannot imagine Andy Reid goes for a fourth-and-1 at his own 45 in a 17-17 game or a fourth-and-1 at the Tennessee 13 on the first drive of overtime.

The Chiefs converted both of those plays, but they were still stopped in regulation, and after winning the coin toss in overtime and setting up that first down at the Tennessee 11, they were stopped cold again on three passes. Butker, who also missed an extra point earlier, pulled his head out of his ass and made the 28-yard field goal to take a 20-17 lead.

Almost predictably, the Chiefs would force the Titans to go four-and-out with Willis making some bad plays by holding the ball too long. He really didn’t have any open receivers, but he needed to throw the ball away. Once that first long sack set up third-and-21, you knew the Titans were in trouble. After another sack set up fourth-and-26, Willis threw incomplete on a short pass to end the game.

It was a wild one, and if these teams were to see each other again with Tannehill or if Willis gets better as a passer and remains the starter, then you could see the Titans being one of the few teams who could go into Arrowhead and win. They have been a nuisance over the years for Reid’s teams.

But the quarterback mismatch was just too much for the Titans to overcome in the end. Mahomes ended up throwing for 446 yards on 68 passes and rushing for 63 yards and a touchdown.

The Chiefs are 6-2, but I think we are going to see more tough games like this one and the comeback against the Raiders, which were two of the most dramatic island games this season. This offense has looked as good as ever in games against the Cardinals, Buccaneers, and 49ers, but we have also seen the offense held to 20 points or fewer in four games now. There seems to be no middle ground as that 30-29 win over the Raiders is the only game where the offense scored between 21-40 points.

I guess this is what life without Tyreek Hill looks like this year. You just hope that when the off game comes in the playoffs, the defense is able to do enough to keep the game winnable and they can grind another close one out. Sunday night was the first time in the last 13 games the Chiefs did not allow 20 points. Of course, Malik Willis won’t be there every week.

But the rematch with Justin Herbert and the Chargers in Los Angeles in two weeks is looking like a big one again. It’s even bigger if the Chargers can upset the 49ers in San Francisco on Sunday night.

Rams at Buccaneers: Surprised They Didn’t Blow It Like This in January Too

The battle of two teams who have seen better days ended in a manner you should have expected. The Rams tried their darndest to blow the NFC divisional round matchup even after taking a 27-3 lead, but Cooper Kupp saved his biggest play for the end of the game.

He may have saved his biggest mistake for the end of this one, but the whole final sequence was classic, conservative Sean McVay. For 58 minutes, we were stuck watching two bad offenses that rank 31st and 32nd in rushing try to throw the ball with quarterbacks who are having the worst seasons of their career at throwing touchdowns.

If Matthew Stafford isn’t lining up a shot play for Kupp this year, he’s almost worthless. Tom Brady has taken a liking to skipping balls off the ground as so many of his throws are low and well short of the sticks this year.

After Kupp’s early touchdown gave the Rams their only offensive life and a 7-3 lead in this one, Brady was given 11 more drives in a row where he just needed a touchdown to tie or take the lead. Eleven. Do you think the quarterback who has thrown for 100,000 yards in his career including the playoffs could get one touchdown drive on 11 opportunities?

But the Rams, led by a few great plays by Aaron Donald, kept him out of the end zone on the first 10 drives after the Kupp touchdown. But even when he threw incomplete on fourth and goal with 1:52 left, you knew it wasn’t over with the Bucs having two timeouts left.

If you have paid attention to Sean McVay’s career, you know he is super conservative in these moments. The thought used to be that he was afraid to let Jared Goff throw with the late lead, but he has Stafford now and we still see this stuff.

On the second play of the drive, after a run for no gain, Kupp got another carry. Instead of trying to plow forward for the first down, which he absolutely had a shot at with the way he runs with the ball, Kupp did a big slide to stay in bounds and keep the clock running after a 5-yard gain.

What the hell was that? Even if you get knocked out of bounds, go for the 10 yards and end this thing. The game is over with a first down. That was a big mistake, but McVay made it worse with the predictable run for a yard on third-and-5. All that money to Stafford and Kupp, and you call a run to Darrell Henderson with a chance to win the game. For shame, man.

So, the stage was set. Brady had 44 seconds and no timeouts to drive 60 yards for the win. He got almost half of it right away with a pass to tight end Cade Otton, a 28-yard gain after the Bucs had zero 20-yard plays in the first 59 minutes.

Okay, but the Rams would be more aggressive with the ball getting closer to the end zone, right?

Wrong. The Rams went prevent and didn’t even bother guarding the sidelines. Brady could go 25 yards in three plays that took 12 seconds with how open the receivers were at the sideline.

With the ball at the 7 now, the next piece of the puzzle was Mike Evans doing his usual acting job to sell a defensive pass interference that officials almost always buy. Brady threw a terrible, hurried pass that no one could have caught, but because there was a little contact with the defender, and because of how good Evans is at selling these, they got the ball at the 1-yard line. Otton finished the drive with the walk-in touchdown on a play-action pass, the first touchdown by a Tampa tight end since Rob Gronkowski retired. The Rams then fumbled a lateral play to end the game.

On a day where multiple NFL games had questionable endings in regards to DPI being called or not with any consistency, go figure it was Brady and Evans to get the call on the worst throw of the three.

The reputation of the quarterback, receiver, and defender involved in a pass play should not have any influence on whether or not the play is pass interference. But watch enough NFL games and it is hard to deny there isn’t some influence there.

  • I cannot imagine Brady and Evans not getting that DPI call on the Chase Claypool play that Justin Fields threw to no avail to end the game.
  • I doubt Jets corner Sauce Gardner gets away with what he did on Gabe Davis if he was an undrafted scrub playing in his first game instead of an emerging rookie star who was drafted No. 4 overall.
  • If the pass Brady threw to Evans was thrown by Malik Willis to Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, you’ll die holding your breath waiting for the same flag to come out.

Star treatment aside, this loss was on McVay more than anything. He had a chance to bury Tampa Bay at 3-6, but he’s the one sitting at 3-5 because he doesn’t play to win like he should.

Bills at Jets: Oh Great, Now You’ve Encouraged Them

The Buffalo Bills have received plenty of praise all season. They have been the favorites to win it all this year since the preseason. They were my preseason Super Bowl pick. Josh Allen has been leading the MVP race all year.

But ever since they won the Game of the Year in Kansas City in Week 6 and had their bye, it is starting to look like the Bills are listening to too much of the praise before they’ve actually achieved anything different this season.

They beat the Chiefs 38-20 in Arrowhead last year with Allen getting MVP praise. What happened a few weeks later? It was one year ago today (11/7) they lost 9-6 in Jacksonville as a huge favorite with Allen playing such a terrible game that it effectively destroyed his 2021 MVP campaign.

Allen wasn’t Jacksonville terrible on Sunday, but the truth is he has thrown four interceptions since he’s thrown his last touchdown pass. They have been pretty bad, 2018-19 type Josh Allen picks too. He did rush for two early touchdowns against the Jets to build a 14-3 lead, but the Bills managed just one field goal the rest of the way.

The Jets were not stellar on offense, but they also did enough damage to make the Bills look less than impressive as they try to finish No. 1 on defense. Zach Wilson avoided throwing any interceptions, and he hooked up with rookie wideout Garrett Wilson eight times for 92 yards.

But the difference in the rushing games was significant. The Jets gave Wilson 150 yards of ground support compared to 48 yards for Allen, who barely broke 200 yards passing again as no one but Stefon Diggs (93 yards) really stepped up at receiver.

Allen did not have a successful fourth quarter after the Bills tied the game at 17. The Jets helped Wilson out by going to the ground game exclusively on their game-winning drive until Wilson converted a third down before the two-minute warning. That led to the Bills burning through all three timeouts before the Jets kicked the go-ahead field goal to take a 20-17 lead with 1:43 left.

Still, that’s plenty of time to set up a field goal in this league. But I’ve had my reservations about the Bills being a front-running team. The game-winning drive in Kansas City was great, but the fact is Allen is only 9-16 (.360) at fourth-quarter comeback opportunities in his career.

It looked like Allen was going to overcome an instant holding penalty and first-and-20 situation, but a strip-sack nearly ended his drive after three snaps. The Bills recovered but faced third-and-21. Allen was too low for Diggs, who did very little after halftime, and on fourth down, he threw up a prayer in a really solid spot to Gabe Davis, but he was in coverage with rookie corner Sauce Gardner. There was a lot of contact and Gardner did very little to look back for the ball, but there was no flag.

Ideally, you don’t want to see a team put in instant field goal range at the end of the game with a DPI flag like that. It should be something egregious. My issue with the whole process here is that it seems like officials are already applying star treatment to Gardner, a rookie, as if he was prime Darrelle Revis or Richard Sherman. This isn’t the first time he’s gotten away with some aggressive grabbing at the end of the game to no call by the official. Why wouldn’t he keep doing it if they’re not going to call it?

Buffalo (6-2) is still holding onto the No. 1 spot in the AFC, but the Jets are right there at 6-3 and Buffalo is now 0-2 in division games after losing to Miami earlier. I still think this team’s worst enemy is itself. Right now, the Bills are looking like a team that thought its shit didn’t stink this year. After these last five quarters going back to the Green Bay game not ending as well as it could have, hopefully they realize they still have a long way to go this season.

Week 6 didn’t guarantee a thing other than holding the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Chiefs.

Packers at Lions: Some Shitty Throws, For Sure

Aaron Rodgers was 18-3 against the Lions in games he actually played to completion. The Detroit defense made him look bad in a 19-7 loss in 2014. Mason Crosby had some kicks he’d like to have back in losses in 2015 and 2018 as Rodgers did what he could on tough days for the Packers.

But Sunday? This was something different. Rodgers was facing perhaps the most inept Detroit defense since the days of the 0-16 team in 2008, but he still found a way to throw three interceptions deep in scoring range and lost a 15-9 game to Jared Goff and a 1-6 team.

Jesus Christ.

The interceptions were stunning as this is a quarterback who throws two or four picks for an entire season most of the time since 2018. He just threw three in one game against a team he owns that had two picks all season coming in. A Detroit defense that allowed at least 24 points to everyone, but the Packers got nine largely because of those interceptions.

Was it all Rodgers’ fault? No, Romeo Doubs was carted off and Aaron Jones, not that they seemed to want to use him anyway on Sunday, did not finish the game either. The skill player injuries continue to mount. There were also some bad drops.

But after thinking Matt LaFleur was such a good coach for Rodgers and better than Mike McCarthy, I’m just not seeing it after what is now a five-game losing streak. The team is getting worse instead of better. Maybe that’s the injuries and lack of talent, but why after running all over Buffalo did the Packers not try something similar in this game? Rodgers trying to pad the touchdown pass total with those short, quick throws into tight windows was ludicrous. Give the ball to Aaron Jones, the guy with 40 touchdowns in 2019-21.

A fade to Sammy Watkins is the best play call you have? Really?

But once the Packers got the ball to the Detroit 17 in a 15-9 game in the final minute, you still thought Rodgers had it in him to pull it out. Not so much because of his personal history, but also because you just expect the Lions as a franchise to lose this game to Green Bay. Like Brady, Rodgers could play like shit for 59 minutes but get all the credit if he delivers on the last drive.

Of course, you still have to deliver, and he didn’t do it this time. Why is he wasting two downs with lazy throws that landed well out of bounds to Allen Lazard? Why is he going for the end zone on third down when he still has time to pick up the first and get inside the 10? What the hell was that fourth-down play to Watkins supposed to be? He wasn’t even looking for that ball.

Four straight incompletions ended the game, and the Lions pulled it off. Next, Rodgers will get to host Dallas, another team he’s owned for his career. But the days of expecting Rodgers and the Packers to do the things they used to do seem to be over.

It’s gotten so bad that you might not even be able to trust the Packers at home in a night game against the Bears anymore. You know, their Week 2 game that’s the only win they have by more than three points in their last 11 games going back to last season.

Vikings at Commanders: We Need to Talk About Kirk

Not that the world would be any saner with a Taylor Heinicke-driven win streak, but we need to talk about Kirk Cousins, because Mr. .500 is having one interesting season.

No one knows how to stay within a game of .500 like Cousins, but at 7-1 now, he is either threatening to blow that narrative out of the water this year, or the Vikings are about to have one of the most epic second-half meltdowns.

For the first time in his career, Cousins has led four fourth-quarter comeback wins in a season, and he still has at least nine games to go. This was the second time he’s rallied from 10 points down in the fourth this year, doing it against Detroit too.

These are the games Minnesota used to mostly lose, which is why in a normal year, the Vikings would be 3-5, 4-4, or 5-3 right now. But they’re getting things to go their way and their only loss was against the 8-0 Eagles.

When I say things are going Minnesota’s way, I mean after falling behind 17-7 in the fourth quarter, Cousins looks like he gets picked three plays into the next drive. Typical Cousins. He’ll finish with 300 yards and multiple touchdowns, but only after he throws a couple bad picks. But this time there was a defensive pass interference flag to negate it. Then Cousins hits a bomb to Justin Jefferson that leads to a field goal, and Heinicke is the one getting intercepted to set up a 12-yard field that Cousins turns into a nice touchdown catch by Dalvin Cook to tie the game.

Washington goes three-and-out, Minnesota drives methodically, but it looked like the go-ahead field goal would come with nearly two full minutes left for Heinicke to answer. But the Commanders are penalized on the field goal for a silly unnecessary roughness foul, so the game-winning field goal left Heinicke just 12 seconds to answer, which he understandably couldn’t.

Ho-hum, the Vikings are 7-1 with a 20-17 win that won’t move the numbers for them after the run game was stuffed (56 yards) and Cousins was barely over 50% complete. New tight end T.J. Hockenson showed out well in his first game after the trade from Detroit with nine catches on nine targets for 70 yards.

But despite the record and all the close wins, Cousins (50.1) is only 19th in QBR, which would be his lowest ranking and lowest QBR in his career.

I’d say that plane ride is about to be the peak of Minnesota’s season, but with Buffalo up next, what if next Sunday is the day everything changes? If Cousins outplays Josh Allen in an upset win, that could mark the first time all year the Bills are not on the odds-on favorites to win the Super Bowl, Allen is not leading the MVP race anymore, and Cousins just may be moving his name near the top of that list on an 8-1 team.

You like that?

I don’t think I do, but if Kevin O’Connell is going to give Cousins the Stafford makeover like he did with the 2021 Rams to win a Super Bowl and send Tom Brady into retirement along the way, then sign me up for all the craziness to come.

Seahawks at Cardinals: Baseball Season Is Over, Is Kyler Checked Out?

With the World Series in the books and a new Call of Duty game out, is it time for Kyler Murray to mentally check out of this season?

If you didn’t get the references, this is about the way Murray’s Arizona teams under Kliff Kingsbury tend to implode in November and December, and that the quarterback’s study time is impacted as he apparently has a thing for gaming.

But this is going to make for an awkward in-season Hard Knocks if the Cardinals keep losing after a bad start to the season. This game was fairly lopsided with the Seahawks converting 10-of-15 on third down and outgaining Arizona 421-262. I’m not even sure why the Cardinals were a slight favorite. Home-field advantage? Murray and Kliff have one of the worst home records since 2019.

But even with DK Metcalf held in check like usual against Arizona, he still caught a touchdown, Geno Smith didn’t implode, and Kenneth Walker rushed for 109 yards and two more touchdowns.

The Cardinals were down 17-14 to start the fourth quarter with the ball, but Murray took a third-down sack, one of five sacks on the day as he had problems getting the ball out late in the game. Seattle answered both Arizona drives in the fourth quarter with Walker touchdowns, and it’s yet another double-digit win for Pete Carroll’s team.

These really are the bizarro Seahawks, but it’s clicking right now with a 6-3 record and four straight wins. If this team can beat Tampa before the bye, it is not impossible for the Seahawks to be 10-3 going into the rematch with San Francisco in Week 15. Short of the Eagles going 17-0, I think you’d have to give Carroll the Coach of the Year award if this team wins 10+ games.

Chargers at Falcons: About What You’d Expect

We have already seen the Chargers in the Justin Herbert era play the Falcons twice, and see if you can spot the similarities:

  • 2020: Chargers win 20-17 after 43-yard field goal is good on a drive that started with 31 seconds left after an Atlanta turnover.
  • 2022: Chargers win 20-17 after 37-yard field goal is good on a drive that started with 34 seconds left after an Atlanta turnover.

Yeah, they went there again. It was another tough start for the Chargers, who were without wide receivers Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, but they still had Austin Ekeler for a couple touchdowns to offset the pair scored by Cordarrelle Patterson, who made his return for Atlanta.

Still, the game was lower scoring than expected with a comedy of errors in the second half as you might expect in a game between the Chargers and Falcons. Khalil Mack flat out stole the ball from rookie Drake London in the third quarter when London was about to set up first-and-goal.

In the fourth quarter, Atlanta kicker Younghoe Koo missed a 50-yard field goal that would have given the Falcons a 20-14 lead and could have led to a much different outcome. But the Chargers tied the game with a field goal from Cameron Dicker the Kicker (real name), Atlanta went three-and-out, and Herbert seemed to have another game-winning drive brewing.

Then we were treated to a play that you could only get in a Chargers-Falcons game as both teams tried to choke as hard as they could with the game on the line.

With 46 seconds left at the Atlanta 22, Ekeler was just trying to run for a first down. He fumbled, the Falcons scooped it up and started to return it, then they fumbled it right back to the Chargers, starting a new drive with 34 seconds left. Herbert needed just one 22-yard pass to Josh Palmer to set up Dicker the Kicker from 37 yards out as time expired for the 20-17 win.

CBS had an interesting graphic that the 2022 Chargers are the third team in NFL history to trail by double digits after the first quarter of four straight games. The others were the 1962 Broncos and 1988 Buccaneers, two teams you don’t want to be associated with. But the shocking part is the Chargers are now 3-1 in these games, so they are finding their footing and holding onto most leads this year. Still, it doesn’t really feel like a 5-3 team, but we’ll see what can happen when the wide receivers return.

But after 28-3 and now blowing the last two winnable head-to-head meetings with the Chargers, I have to say the Falcons outclass the Chargers when it comes to choking and losing games in incredible fashion that you definitely should have won. So, if losing was the goal here to determine the real winner between these two, then Atlanta came through beautifully on Sunday.

Dolphins at Bears: Some Offensive Appreciation Here in 2022

I’d like to point out this was the most fun in a Dolphins-Bears game since Erik Kramer led a 15-point comeback in the fourth quarter for a 36-33 upset of Dan Marino’s Dolphins in 1997.

I’m not kidding either. There is something to be said that these teams are hopefully turning the corner on offense and will be watchable again, or in Chicago’s case, for the first time since television was invented.

The Dolphins are finally starting to stack big scoring games, and they even got Tyreek Hill his first touchdown since the Baltimore comeback to go along with his prolific yardage output this season. One thing I did notice is that it seemed like every single Tua pass attempt came off play-action. It’s something he uses around 30%, a league-high rate, and it certainly helps to have the speediest WR duo in the league. I can see the system QB arguments to come going forward, but whatever.

It was also a game that could have easily slipped away from Miami after the Bears pulled to within 35-32 with over 11 minutes left. No one scored the rest of the way, though there were chances.

Justin Fields had himself a prolific day with 178 rushing yards, the second most by a quarterback in NFL history and a new record for a regular-season game. Michael Vick had 173 yards back in the day.

By finishing with 252 rushing yards as a team, the Bears are the fourth team in NFL history (read: since 1940) to rush for at least 230 yards in four consecutive games. The only other teams to do that are the 1949 Eagles, 1951 49ers, and 1976 Steelers.

But given two cracks at a game-tying field goal, the offense stalled. However, the last drive was not entirely the offense’s fault. There was no flag here on Miami for defensive pass interference. This was a third-and-10 play with 1:35 left.

Tom Brady and Mike Evans get that flag. I guess Fields and new receiver Chase Claypool don’t have that luxury yet. Fields threw incomplete on fourth down on the next play to end the game.

Fields finished with a 95.4 QBR, the highest by any quarterback in Week 9, and easily the highest by any quarterback in a loss in the last two seasons. The Bears may not be winning most of these recent games, but it is an encouraging sign to see Fields moving the offense and putting points on the board even if it is happening in an unconventional way.

Raiders at Jaguars: McDaniels the Next One-and-Done?

Josh McDaniels must not have received the memo that the Jaguars have lost 40 straight games when allowing more than 20 points. Not 20 points exactly. More than 20 points. So, maybe the Raiders should have tried scoring on any of their five second-half drives.

By blowing a 17-0 lead, the 2022 Raiders join the 2003 Falcons and 2020 Chargers on a fitting list of teams to blow three leads of at least 17 points in the same season. No one else has done that, and both of those teams fired their head coach that year.

Blowing a 17-0 lead to Patrick Mahomes in Kansas City is one thing but blowing a 20-0 lead to Arizona and now a 17-0 lead in Jacksonville is a fire-worthy offense in my book.

Trevor Lawrence had one of the best passing games of his career (25-of-31 for 235 yards), and Travis Etienne went over 100 yards and scored two more touchdowns on the ground. It was still on brand that Lawrence’s second fourth-quarter comeback saw him hand off to Etienne for a 5-yard touchdown on the first play of the quarter, but there was a significant multi-score comeback leading up to that point that he was a big part of, so props to him for finally delivering one.

Once again, the Raiders had a great half and a terrible half. They never seem to put it together for a full game. Davante Adams was absolutely unstoppable in the first half, catching all nine targets for 146 yards and two touchdowns. But in the second half? Very stoppable. He caught 1-of-8 balls for no yards and had some concentration drops.

Derek Carr’s success rate was 1-for-11 to end the game as he got four different drives to try to answer Jacksonville’s lead with a touchdown. Couldn’t get it done again, so the Raiders are 2-6.

This franchise is no stranger to firing coaches after one season. With nine games left to set the record for blown 17-point leads in a season, McDaniels may be back in New England soon.

Hurry-Up Finish

The clock change is probably going to kick my ass after sleeping four hours last night, so let’s finish this up with the two blowouts on Sunday.

The 30th-ranked run offense cranked out 241 yards on the ground with Mixon scoring five touchdowns (one receiving), a franchise record.

Panthers at Bengals: Have a Day, Joe Mixon

It was a spectacular performance that just goes to show you that playing division opponents can produce weird results like last week for these teams and playing out of conference foes you don’t match up well with could be harmful.

This was an early knockout with the Bengals up 35-0 at halftime before winning 42-21 after Baker Mayfield had to relieve starting quarterback P.J. Walker, who finished with a 0.0 passer rating on 10 passes, the first 0.0 game since Cincinnati’s Brandon Allen had one against Baltimore in the 2020 finale. Earlier that season, Ryan Finley also had a 0.0 game for the Bengals against Washington, so the last three instances have involved Zac Taylor’s Bengals. But he was on the right side of this one.

Colts at Patriots: Throwback to the Old Days Best Forgotten

Remember when this was the rivalry in the NFL? Good times. Sunday’s game was like a throwback to the early 90s when the Colts and Patriots were two of the worst offenses in the NFL. At least the Colts still won 6-0 in New England in 1992.

This was a 26-3 massacre despite the fact that the Patriots only finished with 203 yards of offense. Still beats the 121 yards the Colts had as Sam Ehlinger took nine sacks. Isn’t the younger, mobile quarterback supposed to escape those and make things happen? This was quite arguably the saddest offensive performance of the Frank Reich era, and he once lost 6-0 in Jacksonville with Andrew Luck.

The Colts were 0-of-14 on third down. Since 1991, only the 2012 Cardinals (0-for-15 vs. Jets) and 2009 Buccaneers (0-for-14 vs. Jets) equaled or did worse than that in a game.

Can anyone explain to me why the Colts said Matt Ryan’s benching for Ehlinger was a move for the rest of the season? Is this team just tanking? It’s the only logical explanation.

Meanwhile, as if there was any doubt who the GOAT is and who the LOAT is, Bill Belichick’s Patriots are 5-4 with injuries at all the skill positions and not much to brag about even when they are healthy. That is pretty good, and yet he is dead last in his division as the AFC East has morphed into a juggernaut apparently.

Maybe he should have left for the NFC South too if he wanted a shot at the playoffs in his twilight years.

Next week: Germany game? Guess I’ll have to get up in time to see Pete Carroll blow another fourth quarter to Brady. Save us, Geno. Some very interesting AFC-NFC games with Bills-Vikings and Chargers-49ers on SNF. Even Browns-Dolphins could be the most exciting matchup between those teams since the days of Dan Marino and Bernie Kosar.