It’s Week 8 in the NFL and there are some really good games this week, especially with key division races in the AFC North, NFC North, and AFC West. There’s also a Bills vs. Ravens game that could be good with the return of Lamar Jackson.
But what is the NFL leaving in prime time on Sunday night? An NFC East shit-fest between the Eagles (2-5) and Commanders (1-4-1). We already had to watch the Eagles lose 38-21 on Monday night against Dallas, and now they’re a 5.5-point underdog to a 1-win Washington team that hasn’t been fun to watch since they lost the 2024 NFC Championship Game in Philadelphia.
All these great games and it just so happens that they can’t flex any of them in.
Oh, we can’t do Steelers-Browns in prime time again or do Vikings-Lions (SNF in Week 15) even though the Eagles and Cowboys get both of their games in a national window (they meet again on Thanksgiving).
We can’t flex Chiefs-Broncos in a battle for first place because God forbid the Chiefs are on SNF two weeks in a row even though we’ve recently watched the Falcons and Cowboys in three straight prime-time games.
We can’t do Bills-Ravens because the Ravens play on Thursday night (more valid at least).
Instead, let’s get the battle to stay out of last place in the first or second-worst division in the NFL this year. I hope the day comes where this NFC East bias bullshit comes to an end and the NFL starts giving us games people actually want to watch in prime time instead of relying on market size. The ratings don’t back it up that more people want to watch the Eagles and Commanders.
Does Jerry Jones have to meet his maker before we can just collectively move on from these teams in prime time so often? Whatever it takes, I’m ready for a change in how the NFL treats that division on the schedule.
NFL Week 8 Predictions
Spiritually, I should have nailed the correct score on Thursday night as I had the Packers beating Carolina 27-20. It ended 27-19 because a team that is now 2/11 on 2PC under Dave Canales thought it was being smart with this newfangled strategy of going for 2 early that I don’t think is a real difference maker, especially when you have put on tape that you suck far more than league average at these types of plays with your short QB.
TEN-CIN: The Bengals can get to 5-2 and still objectively won’t have an impressive win in 2026. But after what they did in Miami, I don’t trust them not to let the Titans cover in the backdoor.
BAL-BUF: The Ravens narrowly lost their last two games at Buffalo in the 2024 AFC-DIV and Week 1 last year. It wouldn’t shock me if they found a way to lose this game by 1-3 points too. But I think the vibes are bad coming out of Baltimore after a 35-13 drubbing last week, Lamar might be rusty and not able to run 100%, and the Bills are rested off a bye week.
ARI-DAL: Would be a classic Dallas letdown spot. They’ve lost some games they were heavily favored to the Cards in recent years, including 2025. But I think they’ll win this week.
CLE-PIT: I think Aaron Rodgers is playing better than he was in the first meeting, and the offense showed it could sustain drives in Cleveland. Just have to avoid the sacks and picks, which I think he will at home. And I think with every win being a GWD for Cleveland, it’s about time for some regression for Deshaun Watson as they get to Predator in the 4Q of this one to take him down for the win and first place.
IND-JAX: Firesale going on in Indy. I think the Jaguars come back rested from London trips and start going on a run here with a win by 11+ to start here.
MIN-DET: One of the worst 6-0 teams I’ve ever seen, the Vikings should go down this week. But after the Lions beat GB 20-17 last week, it wouldn’t shock me if that’s the same score here too.
ATL-TB: Hardest division to get a read on other than none of these teams are going far in the playoffs. Baker Mayfield came back last week and barely had to throw for the team to score 43 points. I’m just going to pick them at home, though we’ll see if Penix can have success against that defense the way Kirk Cousins did when he was there.
LV-NYJ: Raiders could stop the slide here, but I think Geno Smith has one of his best games to stick it to the Raiders. Maybe even a Cousins interception by the defense that never gets any to get a start on the Mendoza era next time out after a fifth-straight loss.
LAC-LAR: Battle of Los Angeles and who is the most disappointing team in the NFL this season. You know, with the way the Rams blow leads and the way Justin Herbert has failed on seven straight 4QC/GWD attempts, I’m not sure I’d want to see him with the ball late in this one and a one-score margin. He’s due for a win at some point here after the Chargers have lost 9 straight. But I’m going to trust the Rams to get it done and win by 7+.
KC-DEN: It sounds like Rashee Rice and Jaylon Moore are back, but now the defense is down two corners (Sneed and Delane). That should help Bo Nix, who didn’t even try to throw deep in Week 1 but is coming off his most vertical game of 2026 vs. Arizona. I picked the Chiefs to go 10-7 and split the season series with Denver. I’m not backing away from it now. Denver wins and the Chiefs make a move or two before the trade deadline after another road loss to a contender.
NE-MIA: Not a game I’d bet on. We’ll see if the Dolphins can build off their first win in a home spot they’ve often had success against NE with over the years. But I’m still going to back the Patriots as I don’t like the talent on Miami.
PHI-WAS: Who knows? I’ll split the difference and take the Eagles to cover, Washington to win. It came down to a late 2PC in Week 1 but obviously the Eagles have lost a lot of talent since.
CHI-SEA: Really good offense (Ben Johnson) vs. defense (Mike Macdonald) matchup for these coaches. Johnson is 14-3 ATS in non-division games, and the last time he played a Macdonald defense (2024 Lions vs. Seahawks), his passing offense completed 100% of its 19 attempts. I don’t think Caleb Williams will come close to doing that against this defense, but the way you beat Seattle is having some balance (run the ball) and getting takeaways to force short fields. The Bears do those two things well, so I’m going with the upset here and backing Chicago.
Some people are letting Week 6 upsets lead them to believe the NFL is rigged. Sunday certainly had a lot of weird fantasy/betting results in terms of who was putting up the yards and touchdowns. I won’t dispute that fact after my new betting strategy failed miserably in its first weekend.
Week 5: 10 players scored 30+ PPR points.
Week 6: 0 players scored 30+ PPR points (so far).
If no one hits 30+ on Monday Night Football, it’ll be the first week without a 30-point PPR scorer since Week 13 of 2009. pic.twitter.com/n41hn77FzR
But as for the outcomes on the scoreboard, let’s not forget divisional games are often weird. The Cardinals beating the Rams and the winless Titans beating the Cols on the road are both divisional upsets. Those teams know each other better than most, and the Rams were dealing with a new coach (Mike LaFleur) who was Sean McVay’s offensive coordinator the last three seasons.
Still, the Arizona Cardinals having more wins at SoFi Stadium than the Rams and Chargers combined after Week 6 sounds fake as hell. Not rigged, because who in the world would want to produce these standings?
It’s also true that a lot of games are close this season as we had 10-of-13 games with a comeback opportunity this week. Four more teams blew a double-digit lead, bringing the season total to 17 in just six weeks. Some teams can’t seem to get out of their own way in crunch time while others are thriving as the Bills and Browns are both 4-1 at game-winning drive opportunities behind rookie head coaches.
Guess I slept on most of one of the best international games the NFL has ever produced. I figured this would be a good one and I had the Texans winning it, but I did not expect both quarterbacks to throw for over 300 yards, 3 touchdowns, and take no sacks. Both threw a pick in the end zone, but that just added to the intrigue and late-game strategy in what was really the last stand for Houston competing in the AFC South after that 0-4 start.
But we saw Marvin Harrison Jr. make an instant impact with three catches for 34 yards. Not huge numbers but pretty good for him in his first game. We also saw Travis Hunter living up to that two-way draft potential with a touchdown catch followed by an interception on back-to-back drives in the fourth quarter. Impressive player.
Both of these teams have struggled giving up yardage to wide receivers. They came in ranked No. 32 (Jaguars) and No. 30 (Texans) in that area, and it didn’t get better in this game even if Nico Collins and Parker Washington didn’t dominate. The other players stepped up.
Houston was always better than its 0-4 record as the offense has been better than expected, but the vaunted defense blew three leads in the fourth quarter. This could have easily been a fourth as the Jaguars did rally back from a 31-21 deficit to tie the game with 1:55 left after Cam Little’s 60-yard field goal.
About that tying drive…Is it almost a curse to have a kicker with great range in today’s NFL? I think in the past, a team facing a 4th-and-4 with the prospects of a 60-yard field goal would have gone for it. The Jaguars still had three timeouts too, so it was possible to get the ball back if they were stopped. Also possible if the kick was missed. But that used to be such a tough kick, and someone like Little makes it look routine now.
But I think if Liam Coen wanted to go for that one, he would have been justified. They still may very well have ended the drive with a tying field goal, but at least they would have used more clock and made the likelihood of overtime greater.
Instead, the Texans had a full 1:49 to work with, and they milked it for all its worth. A couple of short passes to Woody Marks was enough to get into field goal range, and the Texans worked the clock beautifully to set up the 49-yard field goal as the very final play. No shenanigans like last week in giving the Jaguars a chance to get Little in position as he could probably hit from 70 if he had to.
Very good win for the Texans, who I think are still dangerous at 2-4. I think they’re better than some of the 4-2 teams right now. But they have to get on a run like they did last year, and the defense clearly isn’t as good as it was in 2024-25. Though, if Stroud can keep playing like this – he’s getting Tank Dell back this week too – then they have a shot for the playoffs.
Cardinals at Rams: Super (Disappointing) Team
The Rams were a 12.5-point favorite in this one. It’s not like we haven’t seen Sean McVay’s team blow a game as a big favorite before. He’s only done it more than anyone since 2017.
But this felt different. The Cardinals seemed to not respect the Rams’ offense and blitzed Stafford effectively. He struggled to get to 200 yards late in the game. No matter what you think about the kicking situation in LA, there’s no excuse for this offense to have one touchdown on nine drives as they trailed 15-9 late into the fourth quarter.
Just continuous sloppy play by the Rams, whether it was a Tyler Higbee fumble in scoring territory, or a false start penalty that led to Stafford trying to throw a screen on 4th-and-8 (?) in the final minutes.
But Puka Nacua did make a 43-yard catch that got the offense going, and Colby Parkinson’s 6-yard touchdown put the Rams ahead 16-15 after the punter (Evans) made the extra point after lightweight kicker Blake Grupe tore his ACL trying to make a tackle on a kickoff earlier in the game.
However, Parkinson being ruled a touchdown instead of inches short was probably a blessing in disguise for the Cardinals. We just covered a late-game scenario in Jaguars vs. Texans where you could argue the Jaguars should have gone for the fourth down to not leave so much time for Houston.
I really think the NFL has changed a lot in the last few years with kickers getting even more range (K-balls help, I guess), and the new kickoff rules promote both a shorter field after a touchback (35) and more longer returns are possible now. It’s just not that hard to set up a long field goal and make it these days.
In this situation, the Cardinals were out of timeouts with 52 seconds left. The Rams faced 2nd-and-3 at the Arizona 6, so they could get a first down without the touchdown too. I’m not advocating that a team should take a knee and run clock here, or that Parkinson should have purposely came up inches short to run the clock. You take the touchdown when you can, but at the same time, you can call plays that dictate how possible that touchdown is too.
Given the clock and timeout situations for both teams, I think the Rams scoring on second down was costly. Sure enough, without a real kicker to handle the kickoff, the Rams kicked a touchback and the Cardinals were at their 35 with 47 seconds left. Maybe not the greatest situation to be in, but not a bad one for a 12.5-point underdog as they only needed a field goal.
#Rams Josh Wallace was flagged for unnecessary roughness in this play.
And it took a single play to get into range after a 21-yard completion with a bullshit 15-yard penalty tacked on for the hit that was unavoidable. Just like that, the Cardinals were at the 29. After three runs to burn the Rams’ timeouts and get a little closer, the Cardinals made the 43-yard field goal to drop the Rams to 2-4 and last place in the NFC West.
Jacoby Brissett is now just 7-27 (.206) at 4QC opportunities, but that’s a memorable upset for him and the Cardinals. Just another regrettable loss for the Rams, who are quickly falling apart as they don’t have a kicker and they lost Davante Adams (hamstring) for 6-10 weeks.
I don’t feel confident that the Rams can rebound from this, because the super team we were promised on paper never existed. The Rams never took the field this season in a game with Myles Garrett, Aaron Donald, and Trent McDuffie (out Sunday) all active.
That’s still no excuse for blowing these games against the Broncos, Bills, and Cardinals the way they did. It’s almost like by sharing a stadium, the curse of the Chargers has consumed the Rams now.
Ramming.
Ravens at Browns: The Old Familiar Sting
Sunday was nothing new for the Ravens as you can take your pick of past headlines from their games and apply it to this 13-10 loss in Cleveland:
With Lamar Jackson out, the Ravens lost another low-scoring game in Cleveland.
Baltimore blew another 10-point lead after halftime, adding to their league lead since 2018.
Young kicker Tyler Loop had another key miss from 49 yards away that could have made it a 10-point game with a quarter to play.
Derrick Henry had another costly fumble in the fourth quarter, which led to a 35-yard game-tying touchdown drive for the Browns.
The defense was flagged for DPI on third down to extend Cleveland’s drive for a touchdown too.
Unable to close offensively, the Ravens went three-and-out on their last two drives.
Deshaun Watson hit a 33-yard pass to Jerry Jeudy on a 3rd-and-5, leading to the game-winning field goal instead of getting the offense off the field for Baltimore.
Jesse Minter’s commitment to the Harbaugh bit is something else. Meanwhile, Todd Monken may not be getting great efficiency out of Watson, who threw for 164 yards after taking 5 sacks. But he’s getting timely plays out of him, and the defense has been better than expected after trading Myles Garrett to the Rams.
I still think the Browns are fool’s gold at 4-2, but they are at least finding ways to win games that the Ravens keep finding ways to lose.
Steelers at Buccaneers: The Rodgers-McCarthy Comeback You’ve Never Seen Before
I used to annually grill Aaron Rodgers and Mike McCarthy for a decade in Green Bay where they would almost never have the sort of comeback win they had together on Sunday in Tampa Bay for the Steelers.
In Green Bay, there was just one game where Rodgers and McCarthy won after the Packers trailed by double digits in the fourth quarter. It was in the opener to their final season together (2018) against the Bears when they were down 20-3 before winning 24-23.
On Sunday, the Steelers looked horrible for three quarters, especially on offense and special teams. Rodgers was taking sacks, he narrowly avoided a pick-six (dropped), and kicker Chris Boswell seems broken. They were fortunate to be playing an undrafted rookie quarterback in Jalon Daniels instead of a veteran like Baker Mayfield.
But everything changed after the first play of the fourth quarter after Rodgers, trailing 16-3, drilled a pass to D.K. Metcalf for 17 yards to convert 3rd-and-16. From there, it was all Steelers. Daniels threw a pick, the Steelers settled for a field goal, then Boswell redeemed himself with a 58-yard field goal to tie the game. Jamel Dean, the former Buc, picked off Daniels to set up a 20-yard field goal after the Steelers failed to punch it in from the 1.
Again even a rookie quarterback was able to start from his 35 with 1:21 left and easily got the game-tying field goal that forced overtime. I agree with the decision for Tampa to go on defense first. Hope you sack Rodgers and end a drive, so you only need a field goal to win. Then if you give up a touchdown as they did, at least you’re giving Daniels four downs to work with the whole field. No disagreement in strategy there.
But the Steelers did get that touchdown as Germie Bernard capped off his big day with his first touchdown. He should be the WR2 as I saw more out of him in one preseason game than what Roman Wilson has done in Pittsburgh. But the injuries to Michael Pittman Jr. and Wilson opened the door for Bernard on Sunday, and he was very good. Like a Randall Cobb type for Rodgers.
Daniels needed a touchdown. He was able to overcome one 4th-and-9 with a scramble, but on 4th-and-8 at midfield, a well-timed blitz led to the second sack of the day for Jalen Ramsey to end the game.
This is the first time since the 2002 AFC Wild Card vs. Cleveland that the Steelers won after trailing by 13 points in the fourth quarter. Yes, the Tommy Maddox vs. Kelly Holcomb shootout. Yes, that also means Ben Roethlisberger never did this in his HOF career despite having more overall comebacks than Rodgers. Sure, he did put the team on top in a playoff game against Jacksonville after trailing by 18 points in the fourth, but the Steelers found ways to blow his big comeback attempts.
The Steelers get one behind Rodgers and they’re 4-2 before heading to Paris to take on the Saints. It’s the kind of comeback I certainly didn’t expect from Rodgers and McCarthy after seeing how bad this game was for 45 minutes. But they got it done.
Bears at Falcons: Caleb Williams’ Big Return
It looks like Ben Johnson’s offense works just fine when he’s playing non-NFC North defenses. Caleb Williams returned and had a 30-of-36 for 305 yards passing game that is more akin to the kind of offense you want to see from this team. One where Luther Burden (95 yards) and Colston Loveland (65 yards and a touchdown) are leading the way over Kalif Raymond. They also needed this from Caleb after the running game was mostly contained (29 carries for 95 yards).
But even though the Bears took a 31-7 lead on the first play of the fourth quarter, they had to sweat this one out a little. The Falcons attempted what would have been the first 8+8+8 comeback in NFL history and got two-thirds of the way there thanks to the offense coming to life and forcing a fumble in between scores.
Johnson’s vaunted offense was faltering and the Bears went three-and-out again. Michael Penix had plenty of time with 3:34 left. But in typical Atlanta fashion, a holding penalty changed a first down into a 3rd-and-16, and he was strip-sacked with 2:54 left. The Bears gained two first downs and ran out the clock to escape with the win that was sweatier than it needed to be.
Chargers at Chiefs: Is Kansas City Great or Are the Chargers This Terrible?
The Chiefs improved to 5-0 with a 22-6 win over the now 0-6 Chargers that left a lot of fans wondering just how good this team is, or just how bad the Chargers really are.
The Chiefs could certainly be accused of “playing with their food” in this one as Andy Reid was conservative, kicking three times on 4th down with 1-2 yards to go inside opponent territory. The red zone was a struggle as Patrick Mahomes threw an interception (his only real mistake of the game) while trying to throw a ball away under pressure, and Kenneth Walker was stuffed on a 4th-and-1 run at the goal line as that’s the one area he pales in comparison to 2024-25 Kareem Hunt. It also took the Chiefs deep into the game before finally getting their first sack since Week 1 against an amateur offensive line.
Kansas City also brought back the “obligatory fumble” on a bad special teams play with a fumbled punt after Remigo went backwards on what would have been fantastic field position for the Chiefs in the third quarter. Harrison Butker also missed a field goal and extra point. Vintage 2018-22 “We can only beat ourselves” Chiefs are back.
But in a league where 10 of the 13 games this week were so close in the fourth quarter, you have to give the Chiefs credit for playing underwhelming, sometimes stupid football and still winning 22-6. Keep in mind the Chargers were 0-5 at comeback opportunities this season, yet they trailed by at least 13 points for the entire second half in this one.
That’s pretty good for a Kansas City team that was missing its two best wide receivers and playing most of the game with two backup offensive tackles. It was also a good showing for Xavier Worthy (caught all 7 targets for 73 yards) and rookie Cyrus Allen had a nice 23-yard catch from Mahomes that looked like they’ve been doing this for a long time.
But the Chiefs will get a tougher test in Seattle in prime time. That will give us a much better idea of where this team is as a Super Bowl contender this season. Still, beating the Dolphins and Chargers by solid margins without playing that well is an encouraging sign.
Titans at Colts: The One That Got Chris Ballard Fired
Full disclosure: I was a legitimate Colts fan from 2002-2019. They were my second-favorite team behind the Steelers, and it was because they played a different brand of football (pass heavy and all the dramatic comebacks), Peyton Manning was my favorite player, then they drafted a generational talent in Andrew Luck in 2012.
When Luck retired, my interest waned, and it was replaced by the way the Chiefs were playing with Patrick Mahomes. The difference is I’m not a Chiefs fan; I’m a Mahomes fan. That means I technically have to root for the Chiefs to do well so that he does well, but I will never say I’m a Chiefs fan in the way that I was content with my fandom for the Colts for two decades.
With that said, the Colts became irrelevant to me once Luck retired. They weren’t fun to watch anymore with their annual acquisition of a washed quarterback, and I think going for Carson Wentz, one of my whipping boys, in 2021 really was the final nail in the coffin for my fandom.
The Colts have really done nothing since Luck retired too except embarrass themselves. Sunday was maybe the lowest point yet after they blew a 13-0 lead at home to the winless Titans. That was enough to finally get GM Chris Ballard fired after a brutal tenure.
Even when the Titans win, it still feels like a loss for Cam Ward as he threw for just 102 yards in the game. The Titans took the lead in the fourth quarter on a blocked punt for a touchdown, which sounds exactly like the kind of touchdown you’d expect in a game between these teams.
But the Colts failed to come back late, and they’re 2-4 and irrelevant to the season just as they have been for years. They’re turning into the Titans on a level of “Who Gives a Fvck?” and that’s sad to see for a franchise that used to be a huge source of entertainment for me.
Bills at Raiders: Not Ready for the Big Boys
The Raiders’ 3-0 start always felt a bit fraudulent since it came against the Dolphins, Chargers, and Saints. Two of those teams are still winless too. The Raiders haven’t won ever since Klint Kubiak said “we’re going to win the game” at halftime against the Chiefs. They lost that game by 3, got clobbered in New England, and now lost a 33-30 game at home to the Bills.
I think Kubiak is going to have them moving in the right direction, and they can be a force if Fernando Mendoza is the real deal, giving Kubiak a quarterback with mobility that Kirk Cousins just lacks. They also need to find some more defenders as it’s really a one-man show with Maxx Crosby.
But this game is just another sign that the Raiders aren’t quite ready to beat the big boys in the AFC. It also is another sign that the Bills don’t have a Super Bowl-caliber defense. Another 33-30 game, another one where they blew a 10-point lead and had to get another touchdown to break a tie.
Allen becomes the 10th fastest (149 games) and fourth youngest QB to 30 game-winning drives (playoffs included).
However, I’m also not convinced the Bills are improving in the passing game. There is way too much reliance on off-script plays from Josh Allen, and that drive that ended with his long shovel pass touchdown was a great example of how so much of this offense is fishing for flags right now. The Raiders were penalized twice on Allen incompletions on that drive, including a 3rd-and-9 that would have been a three-and-out.
I’m not sure D.J. Moore is the magic cure here either when he returns. They just need to find more ways of getting guys open and throwing on time. What they’re doing is working for now, but I don’t see the defense getting better, and I think they’ll find it tougher when they aren’t playing teams with their heads up their ass like the two Los Angeles teams, or a Raiders team that just lacks the real talents at WR and defense.
The Bills are just scraping by to win shootouts in September and October, but that doesn’t present much confidence for a winning streak in January and actually playing in February for a change.
Cowboys at Packers: The Game That Wouldn’t End
I’ve seen some slogs on SNF, but this one takes the cake. I agree with Cris Collinsworth that the first quarter was exciting with both defenses going aggressive to force mistakes. But after that, it was so clear that the Packers were the better team, Dak Prescott didn’t bring his A game, and the Cowboys were just never really in the game. A far cry from 40-40 overtime tie no matter how many flags the refs tried to throw to keep this alive.
The Cowboys are a poorly-coached team with a rubbish defense, and the Packers are finally hitting their stride with Christian Watson and Matthew Golden leading the way for Jordan Love in the passing game. Golden had 6/104/1 and it could have easily been more if he could catch a few he dropped.
The Packers simply own Dallas and have done so for the last 15 years.
Saints at Giants: J.J. McCarthy Leads One of the Greatest Almost Comebacks in NFL History?
I like a good “almost comeback” story in the NFL.
In Week 2 of the 1992 season, the Giants were down 34-0 to the Dallas Cowboys in the third quarter. The Giants scored four touchdowns to make it 34-28, but when they got the ball back with 3:42 left, they went three-and-out and punted it back with 2:07 left. Dallas, which would go on to win the Super Bowl that year, ran out the clock. Bummer, as that would have been the biggest comeback in NFL history if the Giants pulled it off.
That’s my go-to game for the best almost comeback in NFL history, so Sunday’s result wasn’t even the best one in Giants history. Still, what a crazy finish after the Saints, who always seem to give the Giants problems, were up 34-10 with 11:31 left.
J.J. McCarthy entered the game for a struggling Jameis Winston and promptly threw a pick too.
But the Saints fumbled two plays later, so McCarthy, or “Nine” got the ball back with 9:31 left.
More than half the quarter was gone before the Giants finally scored a touchdown with a 2PC with 7:00 left to make it 34-18.
The Saints were a bit dumb in throwing two incomplete passes to stop the clock and punt it back after a 65-second possession.
McCarthy was throwing deep YOLO passes and made it work for another quick touchdown drive, and this time the 2PC failed. It was 34-24 with 5:06 left.
The Saints again went three-and-out on a quick possession.
McCarthy led a drive that saw him spike the ball with 2:08 left at the 23 to get a 41-yard field goal (34-27). Interesting decision to save the two-minute warning with the Giants down to two timeouts.
The Giants kicked deep, and even though the Saints wisely returned it to use up the 2MW stoppage, they still ran it three times and punted.
McCarthy had 57 seconds to drive 71 yards for the potential tie or win, and he got things started with a 28-yard scramble.
After two more completions and some spikes, the Giants faced 4th-and-1 and were 14 yards away from the end zone. The rally came up short after McCarthy’s pass to Likely fell incomplete, ending what would have been an insane comeback from an unlikely hero.
Nine threw for 243 yards despite only playing part of the fourth quarter. With Jaxson Dart done for the season and Jameis Winston not playing the most inspiring football, I almost think you should just start McCarthy and see what happens.
Panthers at Eagles: It’s Truly Over in Philadelphia
The bigger news than this game is that Jalen Hurts has several blood clots in his lungs and his season is over with his career a question mark. I had a pulmonary embolism in 2016, and my main symptom when I knew things weren’t right was a fast heartbeat at rest and an impending sense of doom. The latter is a real medical symptom.
An impending sense of doom is apt for the 2026 Eagles as it’s never been more over for a team after their fourth-straight loss. Bryce Young and the Panthers played well on the road, and backup Tanner McKee had his shot in a 19-14 game with 9:32 left. But one bad snap doomed the drive right away, setting up a 2nd-and-22 and another three-and-out before the Panthers added an insurance score following the Eagles’ 8-yard punt. Yikes.
Hurts will take blood thinners, which I was on for nine years before getting my doctors to agree I could stop in 2025. Other athletes, including Victor Wembanyama, have been able to continue playing after a DVT clot, so I wouldn’t write off Hurts just yet.
But I really think the negative fallout from how this was handled and the way the Eagles are falling apart here is going to get someone canned, and head coach Nick Sirianni feels like a good candidate for that as I’m not sure what he really does for the team anyway. He’s always been a coordinator merchant.
It’s a good thing the Eagles won that Super Bowl in 2024, because that era is over. Windows don’t stay open for long in this league.
Jets at Patriots: Trivial AFC East Scrimmage
The Patriots continued heating up on offense against A.J. Brown’s best wishes as he had drops in his return to action. But Drake Maye threw three touchdowns without taking a sack, and Geno Smith had a costly pick in the fourth quarter when the Jets were down 23-13 and across midfield.
The Patriots nearly ran out the final half of the quarter before settling for a short field goal to make it 26-16. The Jets tacked on a field goal with 32 seconds left, but they weren’t able to get the onside kick and this one was over.
New England (4-2) is still right there behind the Bills (5-1) in the AFC East. Once again, the Jets (2-4) and Dolphins don’t matter (0-5). But two stooges aren’t as bad as Three Stooges.
Next Week
Patriots-Bears is a nice TNF matchup with young quarterbacks. I guess I’ll have to set the alarm early for Sunday with the Steelers and Saints in Paris, and the NFL picked about the worst week possible for that game to be there.
The 1 PM slate is all about Bengals-Ravens, but that’s not a very good game if Lamar Jackson can’t go. Might be Cincinnati’s year in the AFC North if they get to play Tyler Huntley (again).
Green Bay at Detroit is carrying the late window. Good game there. Chiefs at Seahawks is not quite as good as it would have looked a few weeks ago, but I can’t wait to see what plan Macdonald has for Kenneth Walker. Might be the first time you see a team truly take him away and make Mahomes try to win with those wideouts and tackles. Good chess match.
Dallas at Philly on MNF? Yuck, I think I’d rather watch an obscure British comedy series on Tubi or another Carrie remake I haven’t seen yet. Fvck the NFC East bias.
Week 5 was just one of those NFL weeks where the island games had insane endings to cover up for a pretty bland Sunday afternoon. After consecutive weeks with 12 games with a comeback opportunity, blowouts were up a little on Sunday, though we did still finish with 10 such games in Week 5.
But I think Week 5 brought out the worst this season in coaching decisions, starting with Todd Bowles not kicking that field goal on Thursday night in Dallas. That game shouldn’t have been that close. London shouldn’t have ended the way it did with the Jaguars getting a walk-off field goal after a long kick return.
The Commanders-Giants game ending in a tie was absolute batshit and incompetence from a variety of people. The anticipated Seahawks-49ers game was deceptively high scoring as terrible ball security led to a ton of points from short fields. Then a dropped pass and questionable ruling on the field on the final play ended that one.
To cap it off on Monday night, Joe Brady and Sean McVay showed us why neither should be coaching at the Super Bowl this season. I’ve already led with this one week this season, but I’m really stunned at the lack of growth for this year’s Super Bowl contenders:
The Rams still suck miserably on special teams and it’s killing them at 2-3.
The Bills are even worse on defense and more reckless on offense under Brady and Jim Leonhard. A lucky 4-1 start.
The Seahawks are showing that 4-game run without a giveaway to end 2025 was a fluke outlier.
The Broncos still can’t score in the first three quarters.
Do you really trust the Jaguars or Vikings to win in January? Too bad you can’t combine Detroit’s offense with Minnesota’s defense.
That’s why I do like the concept of a Chiefs vs. 49ers rematch in February. Kenneth Walker is a new wrinkle. Mike Evans is a new wrinkle. These teams know how to win in the playoffs, and there’s no one in their conference they can’t beat this year. Alas, injuries can undo everything (maybe already did for the Chiefs; we’ll see) and we have a long way to go still.
But Bills-Rams was a grandiose display of just how little we’ve come from last season.
The Rams and Bills started the week with the best odds to win the Super Bowl, and they ended the week in the same position. However, I think Monday night’s 37-34 overtime final was proof that we shouldn’t trust either one of these teams to be there in February as they continue making the same stupid mistakes.
The first half was pure subversion. Josh Allen threw for 60 yards (40 on one short toss to Ty Johnson) and a pick. Puka Nacua looked like he was going to catch 18 balls for 100 yards in a run-and-shoot offense (he finished with 17 catches for 138 yards). The Rams had drives that were long on plays and short on points.
The second half, particularly the fourth quarter when five touchdowns were scored, was the shootout most expected. But at the end of the day, what did we really learn that’s new about these teams?
Allen still makes boneheaded decisions as he should have been picked twice in this one, and he was bailed out by multiple penalties on scoring drives.
James Cook still fumbles too often and in big spots like he did in overtime here.
The Rams still have a terrible kicker (Mevis) and generally terrible special teams, which cost them another game with two missed field goals and a long kickoff return to Buffalo to start the game.
Joe Brady’s passing game takes the air out of the ball as Allen somehow had 196 YAC on 210 passing yards and only 12 completions.
The Rams were too dumb to put a quarterback spy on him, so he ran for 121 yards, including several scrambles on the same kind of play that kept burning the Rams.
Even though D.J. Moore and Josh Palmer were out, the Buffalo tight ends and wide receivers combined for 100 receiving yards, and 57 of those were on one YAC play by Shakir in OT.
The Buffalo defense is lousy and worse than it was under Sean McDermott. Stafford threw 55 times and was sacked once while completing 40 passes.
The Bills were just fortunate that Sean McVay once again wimped out of a gutsy call to go for 2 and the win after Kyren Williams’ touchdown with 0:05 left.
In some games, you go to overtime at home. But in a game where five straight touchdowns were just scored, you go for 2 and the win. Why not? You’re almost banking on an outcome where you have to defend the Bills in overtime, probably give up another TD since neither of you can get a stop, then have to get your own TD, then probably go for 2 to win then. Why not just wipe out that injury risk on all those snaps and go for the 2 now while you have the terrible Buffalo defense reeling, and Stafford was dealing?
It made no sense in the moment, and I don’t think McVay in Year 10 is ever going to change. This is just who he is. Then in overtime, you get the Cook fumble, you get to the Buffalo 35, then you take the ball out of Stafford’s hands after he played such a clean game? Just nonsense. They ran Kyren on 3rd-and-5 for no gain on the outer edge of field goal range for their overweight kicker (I’m allowed to say it).
Even if the 48-yard field goal wasn’t getting blocked, it looked like he was going to miss it anyway with a bad kick. That’s just who he is.
Then after watching that sequence and the way the Giants-Commanders game ended on Sunday, Joe Brady and the Bills still screwed up their final drive. First, I think they caught a break with the refs letting the clock go down to the 2-minute warning as that quick no-gain run should not have taken 5 seconds when they ran it with 2:45 left. Saved them a delay of game penalty.
But at 2:00 and second down, you run two plays even if they’re knees, and then you kick the field goal in the final 40 seconds so that if it’s missed, you leave the Rams little time to go get the winner. They just kicked it immediately on second down to conclude one of the worst weeks of coaching decisions in the NFL that I can remember.
Fortunately, Tyler Bass was good from 45 yards this time, and in Year 9 in his eighth try, Josh Allen finally wins an overtime game in the NFL. But this type of game does not move the needle positively for me on these teams. If anything, it makes me want to trust them less, because Buffalo isn’t gong to win 37-34 games every week in the playoffs. No one does that.
Then the Rams are 2-3 and in danger of not even making the playoffs if they don’t get Garrett back soon and start playing up to their potential on defense. Even if they do, the special teams can still ruin it any given week as that continues to be a failure for McVay.
It was a spectacle Monday night. But a Super Bowl preview it was not.
49ers at Seahawks: Sunday’s Best
It’s actually comical to see the final score of 32-29 in a game with one touchdown drive longer than 24 yards. These teams were feasting on seven turnovers to set up short fields for scores, including one return touchdown by the 49ers. When George Holani fumbled in the open field just by dropping the ball, I knew I was watching something bizarre and fvcked up.
This is called the Fred Warner effect because ball carriers know the punch is coming. Made George Holani fumble without being touched. pic.twitter.com/fwUO44DAc6
It wasn’t isolated to one or two players either. It was numerous players on both teams that kept losing control of the ball, which you wouldn’t expect to see on a nice weather day without rain or anything. It’s like these teams were nervous, which would be a weird position since they played in Week 18 for the No. 1 seed last year, two weeks before they met in the playoffs. Those were bigger games than Sunday.
I don’t think either quarterback was very good, though Brock Purdy got it together late and avoided some of the crucial mistakes Darnold had. The go-ahead touchdown drive with Purdy throwing the score to Brandin Cooks was his best drive of the day.
The Seahawks had a chance to tie or take the lead late, but JSN had a horrific drop in the open field after a strong game. Hate to see that in that spot. But on 4th-and-10, Cooper Kupp got 9 yards after diving out of bounds and stretching the ball.
This is another call in Week 5 that technically might be correct in the rulebook, but it just feels spiritually wrong, and it feels like something that has been inconsistently applied. I don’t like the way the end zone gets treated so differently from a first-down market at midfield. This feels like a play where Kupp left his feet while still inbounds and made a diving attempt for the marker and got there. I feel like that should be a first down even if I understand why it wasn’t per rules.
But that doesn’t mean it feels right or is a good judgment call. Hate to see a game end that way. The 49ers improve to 5-0, and the Seahawks look a bit vulnerable at the moment. The defense isn’t quite as impressive as last year, and Darnold is struggling.
But I still look forward to the rematch in Week 12 at the end of November. Just like to see a cleaner game.
Eagles vs. Jaguars: Inconceivable
I slept on this first half of what turned out to be a crazy London game. The shorthanded Eagles were hanging in there, though I think Liam Coen helped that with some of those fourth-down decisions.
I did not like the decision to go for 4th-and-5 at the Philadelphia 5 with 6:35 left and the Jaguars down 14-10. Lawrence threw wildly and turned it over on downs. Some will point to the long snapper issue making a field goal problematic, though I guess the end of the game proved that to be overblown.
But it kind of felt like that would sink the Jaguars no matter what they did as they got a touchdown on 4th-and-5 to Parker Washington on the following drive. And sure enough, the bad snap/hold ruined the XP, so the Jaguars were left vulnerable at 16-14.
The teams exchanged three-and-outs as the clock management wasn’t great on either side, and Jalen Hurts eventually got it back and got it done, setting up a 48-yard field goal with 0:08 left to take a 17-16 lead.
Game over? Not in today’s NFL. You really have to set up the field goal as the final play anymore as we’re seeing 7-8 seconds is enough for a team to win, even if they didn’t have a timeout like Jacksonville. The Eagles screwed up by not kicking deep for a touchback, and the Jaguars returned it 53 yards to set up maybe the deadliest long-range kicker in the NFL in Cam Little, who drilled the game winner from 57 yards out. Trevor Lawrence gets credit for a 4QC for the earlier touchdown but no GWD in this rare situation.
But you have to go for the touchback there and make them try to run some crazy play from the 35. Even a kickoff out of bounds in case you worry you won’t make it to the end zone for a touchback and putting them at the 40 would be better than what happened. I still say the Eagles had a shot to delay the tackle just a hair or two by not bringing the returner down immediately, and the clock would have just expired. Game over.
So many things went wrong in such a quick period of time, and just like that, the Eagles blew an improbable lead for the second week in a row. They went from looking like they’d save their season to possibly putting into motion the end for Sirianni and maybe even Hurts in Philly at this rate.
Ravens at Falcons: Falconing Returns
You know all about Chargering, the Chargers’ art of choking away games. The NFC has its own version in Atlanta called Falconing, and Super Bowl LI is their masterpiece that not even the Chargers can match so far.
Well, Sunday night was some on-brand Falconing after the Falcons blew their shot to win all three of their prime-time games no one but the NFL thought they deserved. Baltimore, even with backup quarterback Snoop Huntley, became the first team since the 2022 Cardinals (vs. Raiders) won a game after trailing by 8 points in the final minute. Same score too as both were down 23-15 before forcing overtime and winning on a touchdown.
Huntley has played well the last two years, and I think you could argue Baltimore makes the playoffs last year if they just started Huntley instead of Cooper Rush when Lamar was injured. But this was impressive on the road given Mark Andrews went all domestic terrorist again with a dropped touchdown, a fumble for a touchdown, and he couldn’t squeeze a 2PC.
Speaking of 2PC, the Ravens finally found a way to go to someone other than Andrews with the game on the line. After the late touchdown, the Ravens put Derrick Henry in the Wildcat and did a direct snap, which he scored on to save the day. Good to see something different here.
Sadly, Michael Penix Jr. did not finish this game with an injury, but since he did play on that last drive in regulation, he technically falls to 0-7 at game-winning drive opportunities with Atlanta.
After the Ravens consumed 7 minutes in overtime, it left the Falcons with little time to go get a touchdown. That’s an interesting part of the strategy to consider for overtime in the regular season when it’s 10:00 instead of 15:00 with a chance for a second OT quarter.
I’m normally pro-kickoff and go on defense, get the ball second so you know exactly what you need with the chance to play four-down football to get it. But I can admit it’s not a one-size-fits-all strategy, and some games I’ll be open to different strategies. This might be one of them as the Falcons looked tired after defending the late touchdown drive in regulation. By taking the ball first in OT, the Ravens could wear them down even more with Henry and company, which they did on their touchdown march.
Also, since you put the Falcons in a bit of a time bind with the long drive, it hurts their best part of the game in running the ball with Bijan Robinson. Granted, he was mostly held in check aside from a 38-yard burst, but the Falcons had to move quickly, and go figure it only took two passes from backup Tua Tagovailoa before we had a game-ending interception. Kyle Hamilton didn’t drop that one.
But that’s a good win to get to 4-1 for the Ravens without Lamar, and just another missed opportunity for Penix and the Falcons.
Colts at Steelers: Offense Returns to Pittsburgh
I felt really confident in the Steelers based on the way they turned the Colts over six times last year, the extra days of rest for old Aaron Rodgers since the Cleveland loss, and the way the Colts can’t rush the passer and gave up the most yards before contact on rushes.
While the game had no turnovers, the Steelers forced the Colts to kick five field goals and they ended their last two drives with fourth-down stops. On offense, the Steelers got two huge plays (80-yard catch, 50-yard run) out of Jaylen Warren for touchdowns, and Rodgers was getting the ball out quickly with few issues. That’s how you get a comfortable 34-22 win.
Rodgers became the oldest quarterback in NFL history to have three straight games with 200+ passing yards and 3+ passing touchdowns. The Steelers have three straight games with 24 points and 350+ yards of offense for the first time since the 2020 COVID season.
Now we’ll see if this offense can travel as the Steelers are going to the Bucs and Saints the next two weeks. They’re 0-2 on the road and 3-0 at home so far.
Broncos at Chargers: Regression Still Not Here for Both
What ever happened to close-game regression for the Chargers and Broncos?
Justin Herbert has failed on seven straight GWD attempts going back to Houston last year as the Chargers are the only team that’s 0-5 at 4QC/GWD in 2026.
Bo Nix is 11-1 in GWD opportunities since October 2025, including 3-1 this year.
When Tim Tebow shit the bed for three quarters and pulled out his voodoo in the fourth, people thought it was a fad. When John Elway did it for years in Denver, the fans loved it. When Bo Nix does it, I’m not sure what people think it is. I just know they generally don’t like it and don’t trust it.
But Sunday was another one of those games where Denver scored 13 points in the fourth quarter after trailing 17-10. This time, the Chargers kept turning the ball over, setting up Denver on short fields. I’m not convinced Denver going for the field goal on 4th-and-1 at the 1 in a tied game with 5:10 left was the right call, but maybe it doesn’t matter if Justin Herbert is going to throw this on 4th down right to the defense (look at the receivers to the left too):
There’s no injury to a receiver or offensive lineman that can explain that throw. Herbert is broken, he’s dead last in QBR (26.5), and I’m not sure we’ve ever seen anything like this.
The same can be said about Nix, who is now 12-5 (.706) at 4QC and 14-6 (.700) at GWDs. Regression has to hit at some point, doesn’t it?
Bears at Packers: Missing Caleb
Maybe it’s for the best that Mike Ditka’s (RIP) last Bears-Packers game was the playoff one from January as this 31-7 beatdown was not kind to Chicago. Just outclassed from the start on both sides of the ball, Jordan Love and Christian Watson had yet another good game against this defense, and Tyson Bagnet looked like an inexperienced backup quarterback who let the Jets intercept him four times (only one counted though).
Bagent was picked twice here, and Johnson didn’t go with Case Keenum until it was 31-7 in the fourth quarter, and the Bears still ended up turning it over or on downs on their last five drives.
Ben Johnson is just 2-7 against the NFC North, so his rivals aren’t impressed. I’m not ready to panic yet on this team as they clearly need to get Caleb Williams back at quarterback. But I do think there’s a real concern with this offense that having “too many weapons” means the young players (Odunze, Loveland, Burden) are not developing properly because they don’t have defined roles. Who really is the WR1 in this offense? Khalif Raymond has had nice games but he had 3 catches for 6 yards on Sunday.
Figure out the roles better. Meanwhile, I think the Packers have done exactly that with fewer weapons this year when you see Watson with 143 yards, Matthew Golden with 123 yards, and Tucker Kraft had 64 yards. Everyone else had 37 yards combined. Just lean on your best deep threat, your first-round speedster, and your very good tight end. I like that.
The Bears need to sort their offense out better.
Vikings at Saints: Justin Jefferson Deserves Better
The Vikings improved to 5-0 after a ho-hum 23-13 win in New Orleans. The offense was a bit better this week, and Justin Jefferson added a great highlight play with this touchdown in triple coverage that was all him.
Too bad he doesn’t get to play with an elite quarterback. But the Vikings relentlessly blitzed Tyler Shough and it worked again. While he only took one sack, he was 16-of-25 for 96 yards with two picks. Half of the Saints’ points were on a fumble return by the defense.
The Vikings are getting it done defensively under Brian Flores.
Browns at Jets: Blame It on the Rain?
A predictably close game that was lower scoring (17-12) possibly due to the rain. It also doesn’t help when your receiver (Isiah Bond) is catching a 30-yard pass and running out of bounds when he had a chance to go for a touchdown.
Keep in mind that drive would end with Cleveland punting on 4th-and-38 after Predator took a couple of sacks. But Watson also led a go-ahead drive in the fourth quarter that would have been a fourth-straight game-winning drive. Alas, the Browns missed the extra point, Geno Smith lost a fumble, and the Browns went three-and-out in the four-minute offense.
However, the punt ended up being a killer as the wet ball was too much for the punter to handle, and that led to a turnover on downs. The Jets only had to drive 23 yards for the game-winning touchdown, and Geno didn’t even complete a pass on the drive. Watson couldn’t answer on either drive in the final 3:01, and he was strip-sacked on 4th-and-11 to end the game.
Cleveland’s 3-game winning streak ends.
Giants at Commanders: How?
By now, you no doubt saw what happened in overtime after the Commanders blew a 14-point lead to Jameis Winston and the Giants. The Commanders were handed a golden opportunity for a win after the Giants already missed a 46-yard field goal and Cam Skattebo fumbled at the 24 in overtime.
The Commanders just had to spike the ball and kick a field goal in the closing seconds to get a big 30-27 win. But Jayden Daniels took the snap regularly, looked like he would just chuck it out of bounds, but then he took a dive and the clock ran out with the team out of timeouts. There wasn’t enough time for the spike.
Jayden Daniels thought the clock would stop at 5 seconds out of respect for him pic.twitter.com/CQ16tDxL5o
Someone should probably get fired over this, and while I don’t think Dan Quinn did a good job on Sunday here, I have to believe this is on Daniels more than anyone. It’s not the first time he got caught trying to do too much at the end of a half or quarter and didn’t get a field goal attempt out of the deal. Whether he simply forgot the timeout situation or pulled a 2008 Donovan McNabb and didn’t know that a game could end in a tie, he fvcked up big time here.
And it’s a shame because he was close to doing the 200 yards passing/100 yards rushing thing in this game as he ran the ball well in his return from elbow injury. But a total brain fart in overtime denied the shot at a big win for Washington.
Maybe it’s fitting that the NFC East doesn’t get a single win in Week 5 despite two teams playing each other. Poverty division.
Raiders at Patriots: Moving in Opposite Directions?
The Raiders have lost two in a row after a 3-0 start while the Patriots have won two in a row after a 1-2 start. Drake Maye had arguably his best performance ever in the NFL in this game with five total touchdowns and 374 passing yards.
Just a dominant win, though I do see the criticism that the Patriots repeatedly got DPI flags on most touchdown drives in the game. But both teams were over 100 yards in penalties and the Patriots still crushed them.
It wouldn’t surprise me one bit if these teams move in opposite directions the rest of the season. Trajectory is back to looking up for Maye, who gets A.J. Brown back soon.
Lions at Cardinals: Detroit Gets First Road Win
The Lions might have the best offense in the NFL this year as long as the key players stay healthy. The defense isn’t good, but at least it got 5 sacks on Brissett and held the Cardinals to 14 points at home until Trey McBride made an absurd touchdown catch in garbage time.
I’m still not that moved as the Brissett-era Cardinals are the master of losing high-scoring games like this.
Bengals at Dolphins: Burrow in His Element
Ah yes, there’s Joe Burrow in his element. Throwing four touchdowns (but not 200 yards) against a winless Miami team that has yet to hold a single lead this season. However, the Dolphins still found a way to get a push on the 7-point spread despite a terrible start by Malik Willis, which still makes me think the Bengals are fake contenders this year.
That defense hasn’t been championship caliber, and the offense is still a bit one-dimensional.
Texans at Titans: If a Bear Shits in the Woods…
You have to laugh at the Titans starting this game with a field goal before getting outscored 26-0 the rest of the day. No one scored a touchdown until C.J. Stroud ran one in himself in the third quarter. See, literally any quarterback can do it from 2 yards out.
But the Texans were always the better team here, and the result isn’t a surprise. The Titans are really that bad with no direction going forward. That new coaching staff has done zilch but make things even worse and more pointless in Tennessee.
Next Week
I just finished my Week 6 preview, and I can tell you the games aren’t that great this week. Seahawks-Broncos on TNF is actually one of the best games we get. The Jags are taking on Houston in London as a bit of a last-chance effort for Houston.
Ravens-Browns is a 1 PM highlight, I guess. Chargers at Kansas City should have been the premiere game but the Chargers are 0-5. Still, I’d be shocked if they don’t cover the spread (9). Bills-Raiders could be fun if only the Raiders play offense like they did in September. Dallas vs. Green Bay on SNF usually ends poorly for the Cowboys, though I guess a 40-40 tie last year was better than a loss.
Washington-49ers on MNF is the kind of game I could have used last night to get some work done early. But I’ll get everything done, go to bed, and recharge for the rest of the week. Look out on Twitter for my full Joe Burrow video spoofing A Few Good Men. I posted a trailer on Monday.
Trailer: A Few Good Men and Joe Burrow
Dan Orlovsky takes the stand in defense of Burrow being clutch, giving new meaning to "CAA" pic.twitter.com/LXewC6ZCgY
The NFC West was always the story of this 2026 season with three Super Bowl contenders in one division, and they take center stage in a soft Week 5 schedule that heats up late on Sunday afternoon and the best Monday night game of the year so far.
The 49ers are 4-0 and have played the best football of any team.
The Seahawks are 3-1 and have been out of the spotlight after Sam Darnold was injured on the opening drive of the season, and they lost to Washington in his return game. But they can get back on top with a win here.
The Rams are 2-2 after a much needed comeback against the Eagles, and maybe they can get on a roll by beating Buffalo in a clash of the teams with the best Super Bowl odds (what ever value that holds in October).
Just a huge week for these teams, and they’ll play the Chiefs later this season, and the Rams and Seahawks won’t meet until Christmas. But for an early Game of the Year in the NFL, it’s hard to beat 49ers at Seahawks tomorrow at 4:25. Brock Purdy has a chance to make ground in the MVP argument after his hot start, but he’s going up against an elite pass defense that destroyed his offense in the two meetings late last season.
The 49ers will have George Kittle this time after he was injured in the playoffs, and he looks great so far this year. They also have Mike Evans as a new weapon this year, and Deebo Samuel is back and looks fine. Purdy is playing as well as he ever has, and he did beat the Seahawks in Seattle to start last year as Mike Macdonald actually has a far better road record than at home.
But I think the Seahawks can flex that defense again, and I’m not sure the 49ers can stop JSN. The question is whether Darnold can step up under pressure as he hasn’t done a good job at all so far this year. It should be a good one.
On Monday night, can we just get a good game? They’ve all been blowouts so far. These teams met in 2024 and it was a 44-42 final even though the Bills consistently trailed by multiple scores. The Rams have to play a clean offensive game here as Matthew Stafford’s had too many turnovers already, and he’s getting a Buffalo defense that has already given up 29-31 points in three games. They look worse without Sean McDermott on that side of the ball, and the offense has been making plenty of mistakes the last two games after getting away with some reckless plays in the first two weeks.
Stat Oddity will be delayed until Tuesday as I have some work to do tomorrow night, and I want to make sure I cover MNF in it.
NFL Week 5 Predictions
Welp, Dallas had one of its worst losses on TNF against the winless Bucs, who failed to cover the spread in 13 straight games before that upset. Onto the next.
PHI-JAX: It feels like the sky is falling on the Eagles this week with injuries and Lane Johnson retiring. The Jags are used to this London thing. I’d be surprised if they didn’t win by more than a touchdown here.
CIN-MIA: Joe Burrow in his element, beating up a crap pass defense for a Miami team that’s yet to have a lead at any point this season. The wide receivers sound like they’ll both be active too for Burrow. I don’t expect to see him trailing late in this one.
MIN-NO: Someone has to end this Minnesota undefeated charade. I think the Saints have the right stuff to do it with Shough having that ability to shake off a bad half and get things going late. I think the Saints get a GWD.
LV-NE: Lots of injuries for the New England corners but the Raiders lack receivers. Tough call. I’m going to split the difference and take the Raiders ATS, NE ML as I think Cousins can keep this close with the way the Raiders have been scoring. But NE’s win last week should build confidence for Maye and company.
CLE-NYJ: Definitely feels like a game that will shine in the Witching Hour with a close finish between Watson and Geno. But I’m going to go with the Jets to get an interception in back-to-back weeks after getting that drought out of the way, and they’ll find a way to win this one.
IND-PIT: I like the Steelers at home. 10 days of rest for Rodgers, the Colts rank 32nd in pass pressure rate and 32nd in rush yards before contact per attempt, so I think Rodgers and Jaylen Warren play well. T.J. Watt and the defense show up at home against the offense they turned over 6x last season.
HOU-TEN: You know you’re terrible when you’re a 7-point home dog to an 0-4 team. But the Texans have blown 3 4Q leads, and I think they win big here as they’re just the better team on both sides of the ball.
NYG-WAS: Tough call but I’m going to give Washington a bone at home as Jayden Daniels needs to show he can stay healthy and get a big division win in an NFC East that is wide open.
CHI-GB: I remember picking the Bears to beat Washington right after Dick Butkus died, and I got a similar feeling here with Mike Ditka passing this week. I’m not sure if Ben Johnson has any history with him or if the young players even care, but I think Chicago shows out even with Bagent at QB again, I’m playing Colston Loveland for a TD, and I got the Bears winning this one as the Packers have played terrible football.
DEN-LAC: The Chargers are totally banged up again (OL, WR, Derwin James, etc.). Crazy how this happens so often. Look for Sean Payton to rub it in and run it up as Denver gets an easy win.
SF-SEA: Tough call as I do like the offensive juggernaut in the regular season. But I think the Seahawks find a way and win by 4+.
DET-ARI: Potential shootout but the Lions better win a road game here. Already lost at Buffalo and Carolina.
ATL-BAL: Underdogs have been kicking ass in prime time all season, but so have the Falcons the last two weeks. Conventional wisdom says Ravens fold without Lamar, but I think Tyler Huntley makes it competitive and the Falcons win by 1-3 points at the end.
BUF-LAR: I wouldn’t expect 44-42 but it could be. Rams still aren’t going to have Myles Garrett and Aaron Donald together, but I think Sean McVay can scheme up a bunch of big plays against this Buffalo defense, and look out for D.J. Moore’s injury report as his absence could be a notable loss for the Bills if he can’t go. But I’ll take the Rams at home.
With a month of the 2026 NFL season in the books, the last two weeks have really pushed this season into ultra-competitive territory as Week 4 was the second week in a row 12 games had a comeback opportunity in the fourth quarter.
That marks 39 of the first 63 games to have one (61.9%), and that percentage would be the highest season since 2011 if it stood. The last two seasons were both barely over 56% of the games featuring a comeback opportunity.
We’re also on pace for just over 55 double-digit comebacks from any point in the game, which would be a single-season record. We’re on pace for almost 81 blown leads (or comeback wins) in the fourth quarter, which would also be in record territory. Finally, the average margin of victory is 10.1 points, which would be the second lowest in history behind only 2022 (9.8).
It’s a competitive season where we may lack great teams again. That might just be the new norm in today’s sports with injuries playing a big factor. Still, it’s quite wild to see the Texans, Chargers, and Buccaneers all 0-4 despite favorable playoff odds going into the season.
It’s not like they haven’t been competitive:
The Texans have blown three fourth-quarter leads while no other team has more than one.
The Chargers are the only team that is 0-4 at 4QC/GWD opportunities.
The Chargers (0-4), Texans (0-3), and Buccaneers (0-3) are the only three teams who are 0-3 or worse at 4QC/GWD opportunities this season.
Also, I have to point out that Sunday was a particularly nice day for me after the two viral tweets I had last week about Joe Burrow and Josh Allen.
Joe Burrow is now 1-34 when trailing in the last 8:00 in the NFL.
They both were in a position to make me look bad on Sunday, but they just reinforced my stances with Burrow falling to 1-35 when trailing in the final 8:00, and Allen royally blew a game against the Patriots with a game-ending interception he didn’t need to force.
Meanwhile, we start our recaps in Las Vegas in the battle of 3-0 teams with Patrick Mahomes tying another NFL record.
But it was still a confidence-building game for the Raiders as they hung in there with the Chiefs all day, and while they didn’t win like rookie coach Klint Kubiak predicted at halftime, they didn’t embarrass themselves like the Raiders often did in anything resembling a big game in the Derek Carr era. This team does feel different, and they were feasting on Kansas City’s defense with tight ends with almost no help from their wide receivers.
Maybe the Chiefs need to learn something from that as Sunday was a bit of a pyrrhic victory. They lost Rashee Rice and Tyquan Thornton, their two best wide receivers, though it sounds like Rice could be back after the bye, and Thornton might be able to give it a go if there’s a deep playoff run. But that’s a big problem going forward as you lose the only deep threat who has played so great with Mahomes. Get Tyreek Hill on Line 1.
But the Chiefs also exposed Mahomes to plenty more hits with two backups on the left side of the line after Andy Reid benched Kingsley Suamataia for personal reasons. The result was a game where Mahomes completed just 15-of-30 passes with three throwaways and two sacks. Maxx Crosby had five quarterback hits by himself.
Meanwhile, Kansas City’s defense hasn’t had a sack since the third quarter of Week 1, and they nearly blew an 11-point lead in the final 3:02. The Chiefs winning games this way is similar to 2022 or 2024, but you can’t cover up these flaws in the offensive line, wide receivers, and pass rush against better opponents, which are coming.
Right now, this team is basically succeeding on Mahomes making timely throws and Kenneth Walker breaking tackles on excellent runs because the run blocking just isn’t there. The bye actually comes at a good time to figure out how to adjust going forward.
It’s a nice 4-0 start and the rest of the NFL doesn’t look particularly strong, so you don’t want to waste the opportunity of a potential Super Bowl season here. But I just think the limited WR room combined with trying to do more play-action passing behind this line is not a great combination for keeping Mahomes upright for the long term this year.
Still, he put the team ahead twice in the fourth quarter on Sunday, giving him a 12th multiple game-winning drive (mGWD), tied with Ben Roethlisberger now for the most in NFL history.
Rams at Eagles: Possibly a Season-Saving Comeback
Come January or February, we could be looking back at this game as the turning point of the season. The Rams didn’t have Myles Garrett or Aaron Donald on defense. The Eagles didn’t have Lane Johnson, Dallas Goedert, or DeVonta Smith, and they lost Saquon Barkley early in this one.
Still, the Eagles led 20-10 with the ball at the Rams’ 2 with half a quarter left. They had a chance to put this team down to 1-3, and Nick Sirianni would have been 5-0 against Sean McVay.
And yet the Eagles lost this game at home in a comeback that was in some ways more shocking than the 19-point lead the Eagles erased against the Rams a year ago. The Eagles had two cracks from the 2-yard line to make this a 17-point game, which is exactly why you go for it there instead of kicking the field goal to make it 23-10, or a two-score game staying a two-score game. I don’t fault the decision, I just didn’t care for the play calls as neither worked.
Still, the Rams had 98 yards to go and Matthew Stafford wasn’t sharp on the day. But he hit some big throws, and a penalty helped the Rams get to the red zone where they finished off the 98-yard match with a Kyren Williams touchdown to make it 20-17 with 3:59 left.
The Eagles went three-and-out, which is what plagued them in 2025, and they’re next to last in that category in 2026 despite the coordinator change. Still, you could at least argue the injuries are killing them at the moment, but something is broken with their offensive system.
Stafford got the ball back, drove the team back into the red zone, and they weren’t relying on no stinkin’ kicker again this year. Williams had a brilliant 7-yard touchdown run to put the Rams up 24-20 with 1:10 left.
Hurts immediately took a sack, then another one as the Eagles went four-and-out after an incomplete pass on 4th-and-25. Total collapse by the Eagles while the Rams just saved their season that was slipping away.
Remember this one as the trajectory of these two teams could be heading in opposite directions the rest of the way.
Patriots at Bills: Possibly a Season-Saving Comeback II
September was a rough one for the Patriots, but they could right the ship with an upset in Buffalo, and that’s exactly what they got. It was similar to last year when the 2-2 Patriots were a big underdog in Buffalo, and they pulled off some takeaways and Drake Maye led the first game-winning drive of his NFL career.
On Sunday, I think Maye had the best win of his NFL career too. He did the things I’ve always criticized him for not doing:
He led a legitimate 4QC/GWD late in the game that wasn’t just a long touchdown run by his back.
He threw 37 passes in the game and only took a single sack to beat a winning team.
It’s the first time in Maye’s career he won a game where his defense allowed more than 24 points.
How bad is that Buffalo defense? The Patriots scored 10, 13, and 6 points on offense in the first three games and 29 on the road in this one. Maye’s only interception was a drop and bad deflection by Romeo Doubs, who made up for it later with two touchdowns.
Meanwhile, Josh Allen had been getting away with turnovers earlier this season, and I still think he narrowly avoided a grounding penalty for a safety in the third quarter of this one. But his mistakes caught up to Buffalo in the end of this one.
First, the Bills are absolutely terrible at 2-point conversions these days. After a Keon Coleman touchdown (he played great after D.J. Moore left injured), the Bills had a crucial 2PC to go up 28-21. They failed once again with Allen missing a wide-open tight end and forcing an incomplete pass. Buffalo only led 26-21, opening the door for Maye, who delivered on his 2PC pass to take a 29-26 lead.
Since the 2024 AFC Championship Game, the Bills are 2-of-13 (15.4%) on 2PC plays, including 1-of-10 with Allen attempting the 2PC pass. Now you see why he is the Tush Push guy at the goal line.
Down 29-26, Allen had plenty of time (1:42) to tie or win the game. But on a 2nd-and-6 at his own 40, he forced a deep throw and was intercepted. The Patriots got one first down and ran out the clock.
Huge win for the Patriots, who prevented the AFC East from being somewhat wrapped up by Week 4 for Buffalo, a team that is about to see the schedule get tougher too while New England’s eases up some.
But for Buffalo, you could argue this team is worse than recent years given the defense looks worse without McDermott, and the offense is still quite careless with the ball in big spots, and Joe Brady apparently can’t design 2PC plays, or Allen just can’t hit the throws like the 13-12 Philadelphia loss last year.
September’s over. The Bills need to get better.
Chargers at Seahawks: Probably a Season-Ending Loss
It’s not like I expected the Chargers to win at Seattle, but I thought Justin Herbert could do better than a DeShone Kizer-like stat line for much of the game. He was 5-of-14 for 36 yards and two picks at halftime.
Speaking of Kizer, he was 0-15 as a starter for the 2017 Browns, who finished 0-16. The Chargers have actually lost seven straight games going back to last year, and the offense has never been worse in the Justin Herbert era. In fact, this is probably the worst Chargers offense since the Ryan Leaf era.
Even after the Chargers managed to get this back to a 30-23 game with the ball, Herbert lost it on a fumble to end the game. It also reportedly is the first game in the play-by-play era (since 1977) where the first two plays from scrimmage were an interception from each starting quarterback. Odd.
But what a rough game with both teams registering 13 possessions. I’ll be very curious to see how the Seahawks hold up against the 49ers next week. As for the Chargers, they have the Broncos, Chiefs, and Rams up next, so 0-7 is not out of the question.
Again, the 1992 Chargers are the only team in the Super Bowl era to start 0-4 and make the playoffs. The 2026 Chargers are not the 1992 Chargers.
Cowboys at Texans: Probably a Season-Ending Loss II
The Texans had a great defense in 2024-25, and the vast majority of those starters were active again on Sunday. But for the third time this year, the Texans blew a fourth-quarter lead. No other NFL team has done that more than once this season.
C.J. Stroud has been a lighting rod for criticism, but this loss was not on him. He got Nico Collins back, and that helped big time as Stroud threw for 347 yards, two touchdowns to Nico, and he did it without a good running game (17 carries for 50 yards). He also had a clutch touchdown drive to take the lead with 2:23 left.
But the Cowboys finally sucked it up and had their own clutch drive as Dak Prescott led a 74-yard march for the go-ahead touchdown to CeeDee Lamb with 40 seconds left. Lamb had 17 catches for 189 yards, numbers that seem unfathomable against this defense in 2024-25.
Stroud only had 37 seconds to work with, and his Hail Mary attempt fell incomplete to end the game, dropping Houston to 0-4. It’s been a stunning collapse that is on the defense as much as the offense, if not more so given the hype of this unit and the Nico injury on the other side.
As for the Cowboys, it’s good to see them deliver in a situation like this even if the Texans are going through a rough period that could lead to someone getting fired if this keeps up.
Jaguars at Bengals: Jags Cruise Down Interstate 1-35 for Big Road Win
As I said in this week’s predictions, Jacksonville is the one opponent that Zac Taylor’s Bengals have repeatedly been able to beat in higher-scoring games and in crunch time. Sunday was shaping up to be another one as the Bengals were 21 yards away from pulling off a 12-point comeback all in the final 6:35, which would easily be the best comeback win of Joe Burrow’s career. He’s never won after trailing by more than 7 points in the fourth quarter.
Of course, it may not have been necessary if he didn’t throw a red-zone pick in a 16-10 game with 14:10 left. That was his second pick of the game and lucky it wasn’t a third after a bad one to Travis Hunter was negated by roughing earlier in the game. Penalties were massive in this one as both teams combined for 24 penalties for 233 yards.
But with Ja’Marr Chase knocked out with a concussion, Burrow had a chance to be the hero in a game he threw the ball 54 times for 428 yards. A game where his running backs had 12 carries for 17 yards. This was all on him.
And he blew it again by coming up short. After three good throws to start the drive, Burrow couldn’t get the Bengals any closer from the 21. He had a miscommunication on second down with a possible touchdown to Mike Gesicki, then he threw it short on 4th-and-10 to Chase Brown, who only got 9-of-10 yards to end the game. No dagger throw to put the team on top in the final minute again.
After the game, Burrow’s answer to the lack of balance was throwing it more. I didn’t hear him say they need to do whatever it takes to score more than 17 points as the defense, while not perfect, did hold a red-hot Jacksonville team to 22, only the second time in nearly a year that the Jaguars didn’t reach 23 points. Parker Washington had just a single catch for 7 yards and Lawrence was sacked four times.
But the Bengals (2-2) came up short again in the exact situation I point to them doing so with Burrow, who is now 1-35 when trailing in the final 8:00, a stat he was asked about this week. He had a chance to immediately fire back with his best comeback ever, and the end result was another loss.
Lions at Panthers: The Bryce Young Breakout Season or Detroit’s Defense Is Actually Horrible?
Are we truly witnessing the Bryce Young Year 4 breakout season for the No. 1 overall pick? He leads the NFL in passing yards (1,268) as no quarterback has thrown more passes (162), but he’s also averaging 7.8 yards per pass, a full 1.5 yards above his previous seasons.
He looked great on Sunday night against Detroit, and while the Lions are a contender for the worst defense right now, the fact is Young has been fairly consistent this year. He’s not just relying on fourth-quarter heroics anymore either. Getting Tetairoa McMillan has really worked out for him as the two had their best game together on SNF.
Meanwhile, the Lions have allowed the most points and yards on defense, and the offense hasn’t been great enough to win more than two of the games. They still have just one turnover in four games, so that hasn’t been the problem for Jared Goff yet. They just have to be close to perfect and can’t really settle for field goals or failing on fourth downs.
That happened a bit too much last night, and the last drive in particular with two minutes to go get a winning touchdown in a 32-26 game was absolutely abysmal.
Something just feels a little off about the Detroit offense right now. They have five capable weapons to throw to, though the running back depth is gone without David Montgomery there anymore. They are only 14th at converting third downs too, which you can stomach a little since Dan Campbell is more likely to go on fourth down. But the exact level of precision they need to overcome a bottom-ranked defense just isn’t there yet, so I think you’ll continue to see them struggle in such games.
The good news is Detroit doesn’t have a daunting road schedule left with games at Arizona, Miami, Atlanta, Minnesota, Chicago, and Green Bay.
Packers at Buccaneers: Still Not Trusting the Packers
Again, we’ve seen the Packers lose to Tommy DeVito and the Giants in 2023, so nothing would have surprised me here against undrafted rookie Jalon Daniels and the struggling Buccaneers.
The Packers did fail to cover the spread (-3.5) thanks to some fourth-quarter blunders, including a deep red-zone fumble by Kaleb Johnson, and Jordan Love had another boneheaded interception late in the game in Tampa territory.
That gave Daniels a chance to be the hero with 4:18 left from his own 15. His passing in the game wasn’t good as expected, but he rushed for 55 yards and showed decent mobility. He only needed a field goal to tie. But a sack shortly after the two-minute warning killed the drive, and they just pressured him on 4th-and-11 to get home with more pressure that led to a meaningless interception as the ball was going back to Green Bay either way.
Tough way to start 0-4 for Tampa Bay, but the Packers don’t look that much better if we’re being honest.
Jets at Bears: Ben Johnson’s Laboratory
Ben Johnson is a wild one because he actually started the game with Case Keenum at quarterback and Tyson Bagnet on the field too, split wide. I think that should actually give Keenum credit for the win since he took the first snap at quarterback and handed off. But Bagent ended up throwing every pass in the game.
He did throw one interception that counted, ending the improbable 20-game streak without a pick for Aaron Glenn’s defense. Bagent also had three other picks negated by penalties, which is unfathomable for one game. Maybe the Jets are going to start getting huge positive regression in that category? Just need to stay onsides and stop committing penalties.
But the story of this game was the snap count. The Jets were doing a great job of hogging the ball early in the season, but the Bears had more first downs (34) than the Jets had plays (32) in this game, reportedly only the second time in the Super Bowl era this happened. Just pure domination as the Jets were 0-for-7 on third down and had 7 first downs in the game.
The Bears can run, they can win with three different quarterbacks, and the defense has really picked it up after an awful Week 1 (again, Carolina might just be good now on offense).
Chicago is looking like the real deal this year.
Cardinals at Giants: A Walk-off to Remember
I had the Giants winning as a home underdog, which made me a little surprised the spread was even in Arizona’s favor. But after an early 14-3 lead for the road team, I started wondering if that NFC West superiority was a real thing this season.
Fortunately, a game with Jacoby Brissett and Jameis Winston played out as you expected with fun touchdowns and turnovers loading up the stat sheets. It was a 27-24 game going into the fourth quarter before the scoring slowed down dramatically.
The Giants kicked a 52-yard field goal with 2:11 left to take the dreaded 6-point lead. I’ve never been a fan of that, but I’m not sure what you really can do on 4th-and-5 at the opponent 34. Kinda too close to take a delay of game and punt. A little too far to still want to go for it as a couple of first downs and the opponent is in field goal range.
Given Brissett’s historically-bad record at comebacks (6-27 record) and the fact that Arizona still had two clock stoppages, going up 30-24 was probably the right call. But that drive got to the 4-yard line, giving Brissett four cracks at it. He went to Trey McBride just once and Michael Wilson three times, but the last one was picked off and the Giants took it 98 yards to rub it in with the 12-point win. You’d prefer to just see the player take a slide and end the game instead of risking a fumbled return or whatever, but sometimes scoring is okay too with no time left. It didn’t affect the spread either way.
But man, with 4 yards to go, wouldn’t that be a nice spot to have a trustworthy receiver with a heigh advantage like Marvin Harrison Jr.? They got him a 12-yard touchdown early in the game, and he drew a pass interference flag that got them to the 4 in the first place. But nothing to him with the game on the line.
Titans at Ravens: Not Again, Lamar
It’s funny how once Lamar Jackson went out with an injury, the RedZone channel basically forgot this game existed. I can understand that too. It was 24-7 at halftime and there wasn’t another touchdown scored until the Titans got one with 1:12 left to make it 24-18. But not enough time for anything but an onside kick, which failed.
Tyler Loop made a 64-yard field goal to end the half but also missed a 40-yard kick with 3:19 left that would have put it out to a 3-score lead. He’s a work in progress. The Titans are always a work in progress as Cam Ward and the offense have done so little this year.
But all eyes are on Jackson as he took a huge hit in this game at the sideline that you normally don’t see, then he left the game after getting injured on a sack right before the 64-yard field goal. Not good. Not this again as we wait to see if he’ll be active next Sunday night.
Commanders vs. Colts: The London Tradition
I remember a 2008 game in London where the Saints and Chargers played a 37-32 shootout and it was great. But the teams involved had a lot to do with it, and since then, the NFL loves sending teams like the Jaguars (usually bad) and teams with Marcus Mariota at quarterback overseas.
That’s why the games are usually low scoring and ugly to watch, which is why I tend to sleep in during the first 2-3 quarters and catch the ending. But I just so happened to be up early on Sunday, and I watched the whole game. If you like defense (great tackling, pressure on the quarterback), Colts-Commanders was a great game. If not, then it was skippable.
I really think my pick of Washington had some hope if Mariota didn’t get injured early. He was 3-of-4 for 46 yards and his 35-yard run finished as the team’s leading rusher. Rookie Athan Kaliakmanis (Christ, what a name) had to step in, and he threw some fearless deep balls that hit, but overall, he wasn’t going to get the job done.
Daniel Jones looked pretty bad, but the Colts got enough on the ground from Jonathan Taylor and company to eventually score 30 points and get the win. But I don’t see much playoff hope for either squad.
Dolphins at Vikings: It’s Not a Bad Beat
The Vikings improved to 4-0 even though the offense settled for five field goals and didn’t score any touchdowns for the second time this season. But tight end T.J. Hockenson, who caught all 13 of his targets, started a shitstorm when he slid down at the Miami 2 with a 15-10 lead as the clock moved to the two-minute warning. With the Dolphins out of timeouts, this game was over with three kneeldowns.
This is the right football play every single time. The game is over and you literally can’t lose unless you fumble the snap on a kneeldown. Yet, whether it’s people with Hockenson in fantasy or props, or it’s people who took the sucker line of Vikings -10 (without Jefferson? Really? I told you on Saturday it was Miami ATS all the way), they seem to think Hockenson should score a meaningless touchdown.
Open the schools if people don’t see why he did that, something many players have done over the years (Brian Westbrook in 2007, Peyton Manning in 2010, etc.). It doesn’t mean the game is rigged; it means you don’t understand strategy. Why risk more snaps when your players can get injured on any given one of them? The game was over.
Broncos at 49ers: The Way You Handle Bo Nix in the Fourth Quarter
Lots of long drives with punts and field goal attempts kept this to a 10-3 score going into the fourth quarter. That’s generally not when you want to see Bo Nix with the ball as he tends to turn into Joe Montana after looking like Cade McNown for the first three quarters.
But the 49ers handled him the best way you could by simply staying ahead of the scoreboard. The Broncos decided to kick a 40-yard field goal on 4th-and-2, and they trailed 10-6. Brock Purdy engineered a touchdown drive, which Nix answered with a touchdown and 2-point conversion to keep the heat on at 17-14 with plenty of time left (4:05) to get the ball back.
I’ve been working on game-sealing drive data, and while this wouldn’t count as one, it was perfection in the four-minute offense by the 49ers as a well-timed and schemed tight end screen to George Kittle broke for a 56-yard touchdown, and the 49ers were back up 10 points with 2:25 to play.
That’s already the second time this year the Broncos allowed a huge YAC play (50+ yards) to an “old” tight end after Travis Kelce got them in Week 1. If it wasn’t for what Patrick Mahomes is doing off an ACL, I think Kittle would be the favorite to win Comeback Player of the Year. He looks great after an Achilles in the playoffs.
The Broncos only had enough time left for a missed 58-yard field goal with 1:14 left. They would have needed an onside kick anyway. So, that’s one way to prevent a Bo Nix comeback. Just get one stop and keep scoring.
Next Week
Not a great start with Bucs-Cowboys on Thursday night. Eagles against the London Jaguars on Sunday morning is a big one for Philly to stop this slide, which isn’t looking likely. Jacksonville looks legit. Hard to believe Packers-Bears is losing luster because of how Green Bay is playing and not how the Bears are doing with BACKUP quarterbacks.
Pretty weak 1 PM slate when Raiders-Patriots might be the top game. Only three games in the late afternoon but 49ers-Seahawks is clearly the game of the week, if not the top game in the first five weeks of the season. We’ll see on SNF if Lamar Jackson can play in Atlanta. Bills at Rams is very interesting for MNF.
NFL teams tied the Week 1 scoring record with just under 50 points per game to start the 2026 season. When you watch the Lions and Bills play a 41-31 game on Thursday to begin Week 2, you might start thinking we are headed for an all-time scoring season around the league after a few years of stagnation.
But no so fast. I don’t think we should let the defenses of the Bills and Lions dictate what’s going to happen around the league this Sunday. It could be another high-scoring week, or we might see some reversion to where teams were a year ago as opponents dictate so much of how games play out.
You can say this every week once an NFL season is underway, but it’s going to be fun figuring out what was real in Week 1 and what’s going to look completely different this Sunday in Week 2. Every year you get good examples of this switch up in Week 2.
Before you bet, don't forget the NFL can be a wildly inconsistent league week to week.
In 2025, Russell Wilson was 17/37 for 168 yards in a 21-6 loss vs. WAS in Week 1.
In Week 2 at Dallas, he threw for 450/3 and lost 40-37.
I’ll note some things below that I think are real and going to happen again as well as some new twists. But I’d also like to point out that if you are expecting a lot of scoring again, maybe the oddsmakers have prepared for a dull Sunday of scoring. I’m not sure I’ve ever seen so many games on FanDuel where the player with the second-best odds for an anytime touchdown is priced this high:
PIT-NE: Jaylen Warren (+190)
TB-CLE: Emeka Egbuka (+155)
GB-NYJ: MarShawn Lloyd (+140)
PHI-TEN: Jalen Hurts (+140) [He’s often better than even]
SEA-ARI: JSN (+135) is #1, Jadarian Price (+170) is No. 2
DEN-JAX: B.Tuten (+170)
SF-MIA: Mike Evans/De’Von Achane (+140)
I doubt we’re getting a fairer shake from the oddsmakers this season. We might just be in store for some overcorrection for last week’s scoring, or we should acknowledge that a crazy number of injuries, especially at WR, have helped produce this.
Zay Flowers (BAL), Nico Collins (HOU), A.J. Brown (NE), and Michael Pittman Jr. (PIT) are all out at WR. Ladd McConkey (LAC) and Puka Nacua (LAR) have their status up in the air as both LA teams need a win. The Falcons are starting QB3 Cooper Rush again. Carson Wentz makes his first start of the season for Minnesota, though that could be a good thing for Justin Jefferson (2 TDs last week). Joe Burrow is questionable to play (maybe that one’s redundant). D.J. Moore (BUF) left Thursday night’s game injured, and I kind of loved that since it helped me hit 3 SGP on what looked like a night where he wasn’t going to do much.
It’s a long season but you can feel like you’re out of things quickly once those injuries start piling up. Then with the Giants potentially going to 2-0 and dropping the preseason favorite Rams to 0-2 to end this week, my Super Bowl pick might be in shambles before the first day of fall.
NFL Week 2 Predictions
I had a so-so Week 1 but no problem with TNF and Buffalo covering. They probably should have won by more than 10 points too.
CAR-ATL: You can’t lose to Cooper Rush and expect to be taken seriously, Carolina. They’ll get the win after showing they can score last week.
NO-BAL: Tricky without Zay after already losing some WR depth, but I can see the defense making life tough on Shough, and I got some props on Wester (30+ yards).
GB-NYJ: Possibly a step towards getting fired during the season if LaFleur loses this one. Jordan Love also wouldn’t help his status if he broke the Jets’ INT drought. But the Packers gotta find a way to win one.
CHI-MIN: I think some of last week carries over for Chicago and they post a good number to clear the over 26.5 points. I don’t think Wentz will protect the ball while trying to keep up in a shootout, so Chicago -4.5 is a top spread pick for me this week.
CIN-HOU: I originally had HOU -2.5, but after seeing Nico Collins is out, I think he’s such a crutch for Stroud, so I don’t expect the Texans to win this one.. 4Q could be comical with the lack of comebacks for both QBs in their careers.
PIT-NE: I was thinking of betting on Michael Pittman Jr. to step up big for Rodgers as I don’t expect much for Metcalf vs. Christian Gonzalez. Then I see MPJ is out too. Guess we’ll find out if the Steelers are a good team based on whether Drake “The Schedule” Maye plays well or struggles with them. The Steelers had 5 takeaways to upset the Pats on the road last year. But that’s a Tomlin type of win. Unless T.J. Watt is a superhero again, I don’t see the Steelers winning this one.
CLE-TB: Baker will shit all over the Browns. He just had to stop fumbling vs. Bengals last week. This should be a rout though I don’t like spreads of 8.5. But the Bucs need to win by 14+ to feel better about Week 1.
PHI-TEN: Titans just looked so lifeless vs. Jets last week. I can’t in good faith trust them here.
JAX-DEN: Jaguars won 34-20 at Denver last December. I think it’s closer this time and the Broncos don’t tackle as horribly as they did Monday vs. Chiefs. But I do like Trevor Lawrence to Parker Washington to get the upset win and drop Denver to 0-2. This time they lose a close one, the kind of game they kept winning last year.
LV-LAC: Ugh, won’t put much into this game with the way the Chargers stunk last week. Raiders did some competent things vs. Miami. The Chargers should win but you never know. Cursed.
ARI-SEA: Another tricky one cause the Cardinals played well, have better coaching, and the Seahawks don’t have Sam Darnold. I couldn’t go all the way in picking them to pull off another upset, so I hedged on the spread. But there’s upset potential and for all we know, the Cardinals could be 2-0 and on top of the NFC West after Monday night.
SF-MIA: A 2-TD spread for Week 2 is nasty but the Dolphins earn it. I think 49ers win by 14+ and I like Mike Evans to score a TD again.
WAS-DAL: Tough call here as it can be close again for the Commanders like vs. Eagles in Week 1. But I know they were blown out in Dallas last year. “Bill” not scoring a TD cost me some incredible wins, so I’m staying away from that game as I just don’t know what this WAS offense is since 2025.
IND-KC: These two rarely play a normal game, so I’m hedging on the classic Chiefs win but don’t cover. Daniel Jones is 1-15 in prime time, and KC’s defense was the most reassuring thing about last week’s performance. Got to see a better passing game, and I worry about the LT situation forcing them to either throw really quick so nothing develops downfield, or they risk Mahomes running around. That’s what’s missing in the KC passing game. They can’t comfortably hold the ball for 2.6-3 0 seconds and just scheme guys open. It’s either coming out in under 2 seconds or he’s extending it past 3.5 with improv, which opens him to injury risk.
But the Colts were the defense that Mahomes threw for his most yards against in 2025, and it was a game with rare clutch moments from Rice and Worthy. I think they get it done, though nothing would ever surprise me in a game involving the Colts against KC.
LAR-NYG: If Puka Nacua doesn’t suit up, I think you have real concerns here as Davante Adams might be washed at this point. Not a WR1 anymore. Then on defense, at least Aaron Donald is back, but what is he after two years away? Then no Myles Garrett (knee). The Giants moved the ball so efficiently last week while the Rams looked toothless on defense and totally lifeless on offense. John Harbaugh as a big underdog? I can dig it. Might end up regretting the pick, but I called the Falcons upsetting the Rams on MNF late last season. I’m not sure Dart can get his first NFL game-winning drive, but this would be a nice spot for it.
I saved this Word document as “Close Encounters – Week 1” after forgetting I’ve given this weekly NFL recap a totally different name than the one I always wanted to use going back to even 2013. But this is Stat Oddity, and we may have just started the 2026 season with the highest-scoring Week 1 in the Super Bowl era.
Or maybe it’s the highest-scoring Week 1 Sunday since 1970 as we want to forget Wednesday and Thursday happened (and for good reason). Either way, the 10 new head coaches and 21 new offensive coordinators led to a lot of points but not a ton of dramatic finishes. We’ve had 7-of-15 games with a comeback opportunity (four successes), though three games did end with a game-sealing drive (Steelers vs. Falcons, Bengals vs. Buccaneers, and Giants vs. Cowboys), and that’s a stat I’d like to cover more thoroughly later this season.
While Week 1 isn’t everything, I think it’s important to make a good early impression and show that it is a new year and things are going to be different. The Cardinals, Ravens, and Giants got that memo. Not so much for the Browns, Titans, Chargers, Packers, and Cowboys. And despite Week 1 wins, I’m not sure the Bills, Steelers, Bengals, and Lions should feel overly confident just yet.
Let’s recap the 13 Sunday games from Week 1.
Bills at Texans: Game of the Week
If you watched DeMeco Ryans’ Houston defense take on Joe Brady’s Buffalo offense the last two seasons, then Sunday’s game was culture shock:
Josh Allen wasn’t 9-of-30 passing or dropped for 8 sacks this time; he was 20-of-29 for 334 yards, 2 sacks, and one of the most vertical games of his career with Dalton Kincaid (130) and D.J. Moore having huge games.
C.J. Stroud didn’t even play in last year’s win (Davis Mills did), but he had one of his better games here with 26-of-38 passing for 274 yards, 2 touchdowns, and no picks after his ugly postseason run in January stalled contract extension talks for this season.
Houston’s new running back, David Montgomery, had 79 total yards and scored 3 touchdowns.
It was 24-21 at halftime, a higher-scoring game than these teams have had in four full meetings in Houston in the Allen era.
But I hope this game doesn’t have a huge impact on the AFC playoff standings or the MVP race or Coach of the Year race, because the beginning and end were frankly ridiculous on both sides, and it exposed some of the reasons I still wouldn’t trust either team in January to win the conference and get to the Super Bowl.
Sure, the middle was back and forth, lots more scoring than usual for these teams when they match up, and exciting to watch. But that’s not a good sign for Buffalo’s defense in its first game without Sean McDermott that you’re letting Stroud light you up for 31 points, or that he was 9 yards away from scoring 38. Where’s all this aggression we’re supposed to see from new coordinator Jim Leonhard?
Allen started the game with a terrible 2-yard loss on 4th-and-1 in scoring territory, then they already resorted to their 3rd-and-long lateral play just to put together a 4-yard field goal drive to start the scoring after Stroud lost a fumble on the third play for Houston.
But the last 6:38 really fry me from both sides:
Down 31-30, Allen fumbles the snap and is fortunate to recover, leading to a quick three-and-out.
The Texans know a 1-point lead isn’t good for shit and they may not even see the ball again, and yet they do the ultra-conservative move of run/run/pass before their own three-and-out.
On what became a 96-yard game-winning touchdown drive for Buffalo, James Cook fumbled on the first run and Buffalo’s incredible fumble luck struck again as they recovered this one in the open field.
After getting to the Houston 34, Allen decided to throw a deep ball for the end zone with 1:48 left instead of working the clock to try to set up a field goal as the final snap, and it ended up being an atrocious dropped interception by Kamari Lassiter.
I’m not going to call it an obvious game-ender since the Bills still had three timeouts and enough time to get the ball back in a 1-point game. But it absolutely could have won the game for Houston, and he just dropped it. Then one play later he gets beat on the coverage for a touchdown to Josh Palmer. Then like clockwork, the Bills screwed up another 2PC, so they left themselves vulnerable at 36-31 to lose to a touchdown.
And since the Bills went for the chunk plays again, Stroud had plenty of time to make a legacy drive with 91 seconds, two timeouts, and 71 yards to go. We haven’t really seen him do this since that great drive to beat Tampa Bay in his rookie year, but the problem there is Stroud almost never pulls off these drives in the NFL. He’s now 2-11 at 4QC opportunities in his career.
But this could have been his moment in a big game to start the season on a high note. It looked like he might do it after getting the Texans to the 9-yard line with 25 seconds left after more breakdowns in Buffalo’s secondary. But then Stroud just ate a sack, lost 9 yards, and had to burn the last timeout. That’s the kind of play where your quarterback has to send the ball through the eighth row. Just inexcusable to take a sack.
Then two plays later with the game on the line from the 18, he does it again after a hurry-up snap, which never seem to work in the NFL anymore unless you can catch them with 12 men on the field. But I think the hurried snap led to panic in Stroud, and he coughed up the ball for his second fumble of the game to blow it.
🚨 BALL GAME 🚨
The Bills get the sack AND fumble by CJ Stroud, and they hold on to win in Houston over the Texans!pic.twitter.com/z6IGxqxRcT
So, I don’t think this game does anything to really move the needle for these teams when it comes to getting to the Super Bowl. I think they both showed some of their usual flaws with the Bills’ defensive shortcomings and tendency to make crushing mistakes at the worst times, and Stroud can’t be trusted on a GWD situation.
The best thing it does for Buffalo winning is it makes it less likely they’ll have to go back to Houston for a rematch in January.
Cardinals at Chargers: Upset of the Week
Every season there’s usually a big upset in Week 1, and it just so happens to be Cardinals at Chargers this year. I had a bad feeling, which is why I picked the Cardinals +9.5 ATS. My thought was the Cardinals moved the ball really well last year with Jacoby Brissett, they moved it as well as anyone in the 2026 preseason under new coach Mike LaFleur, and the Chargers were replacing Jesse Minter at defensive coordinator and could struggle there.
But I trusted Jim Harbaugh and his BFF Justin Herbert to win this one at home as they have much harder games to come. Mostly, I thought Mike McDaniel would have a big impact on the offense, allowing for more explosive plays now that Herbert has more receivers beyond Ladd McConkey, the two tackles were healthy, and McDaniel’s Miami offenses usually peaked in September. It felt like a slam dunk for a 30+ point outing for Herbert against one of last year’s worst defenses.
It never materialized. The Chargers never led, the Cardinals had the two longest gains of the game, and the Chargers didn’t run the ball well, had little going for them outside of Ladd McConkey (left injured too), and Herbert took three sacks as they beat up the interior of his line instead this time.
You have to love the play late in the game where three Chargers blocked one Cardinal while two free rushers got in on Herbert for a sack.
It was one of the worst performances for the Chargers in the Harbaugh era. Maybe the Cardinals are a surprise team this year, but I have a hard time believing they’re still not headed for last place in the best division. The Chargers just seemed really out of sorts on offense, and that Minter-less defense wasn’t impressive at all. Brissett’s only sack didn’t lose any yards, and they gave up a touchdown on the opening drive to rookie back Jeremiyah Love.
Arizona somehow has two wideouts playing better than Marvin Harrison Jr. now as Kendrick Bourne caught all 8 of his targets for 75 yards, but even MHJ had a 33-yard grab, the longest play of the game.
Remember when McDaniel was supposed to unleash Herbert’s arm? We’ll have to wait to see it I guess as it was a total dud in Week 1, and that screwed up a ton of bettors, including my best parlays on Sunday.
Does Madison Beer even know about Chargers BINGO and the level of curse she’s getting involved with here? It runs deep.
Bears at Panthers: Did Ben Johnson Know What He Had?
Ben Johnson might be a mad genius after all. Proclaiming this summer that he wants to break the 2013 Broncos’ single-season scoring record, his team went out and dropped 59 points in Carolina in Week 1. Not bad for someone coaching a team that many soured on and expected to be a prime regression candidate in 2026.
For the record, I picked the Bears to win 10 games and get a wild card berth in my predictions. But I’ll entertain the scoring record if they can drop a healthy number on Brian Flores’ Vikings in Week 2 as the Panthers just lack the key pieces for an adequate defense this year.
Still, 59 points on the road is a crazy number to start the season. In fact, the 96 combined points are the most in a season opener in NFL history. That’s also why I wish Johnson would realize his goal is not a good one as high-scoring juggernauts just don’t win Super Bowls. You need balance, and giving up 37 points to the Panthers is not a good sign for their defense.
Granted, putting pressure on the Panthers to keep scoring, the Bears were able to make the fourth quarter pretty much irrelevant, which was always going to be key this year after the way they won so late in games in 2025. That’s one way to avoid that. They also still forced three turnovers after leading the league in turnover differential, so that’s a good start on that front too.
They also did this with Colston Loveland not catching a pass, Rome Odunze catching two passes, and 32-year-old receiver Kalif Raymond led the way with 84 yards on 8-of-9 targets caught. Go figure, Johnson imports a Detroit receiver and he immediately leads the team in Week 1 after he’d be maybe fifth on your depth chart in terms of your best receiving option.
Throw in an elite running game that piled up 291 yards with Caleb Williams running for 65 yards and two touchdowns to complement two 100-yard rushers, and you have some real potential to light up the scoreboard all year. I don’t know about the scoring record, but they definitely can outdo what they did last year.
Either way, the Bears are going to be a lot of fun this year, and that’s one of the best things about Johnson hooking up with Caleb in Chicago. Making the Bears must-see TV for their offense for the first time ever basically.
Packers at Vikings: The Body Weight Rule Strikes Again in This Rivalry
Why does the body weight rule always seem to pop up in Packers vs. Vikings game the last decade?
Crazy history here too:
2017 – Rodgers breaks collarbone after a sack by the Vikings 2018 – League emphasizes a body weight rule for sacks that hurts GB vs. Vikings after a Clay Matthews sack
It’s still hard to believe the Packers turned a 22-10 lead with 20 minutes left into a 39-22 loss. They knocked out Kyler Murray, who saw his first game with Minnesota end on an interception on his first throw, then a nasty hit to the head for a concussion. Enter Carson Wentz, who took three sacks against a defense still missing Micah Parsons (ACL), and some would say a few more should have counted.
It ended up being a controversial day for officiating in this one. I thought Jordan Love was having one of his best games ever until he wasn’t in the fourth quarter. Everything turned for the Packers after they declined the points on a 40-yard field goal that would have put them up 25-17 with 13:17 to play because the Vikings were offsides.
It’s a defendable call. You try for the 4th-and-1 at the Minnesota 17, you burn more clock if you convert it, then you have chance to make it a two-score game or at least get the shorter field goal eventually. Except Love did the sneak, and the virtual measurement said he didn’t get it, so the Vikings got the ball back down 22-17. I can’t really fault Matt LaFleur for that one.
Then on a weekend with some shaky game-winning drives (Bills), the Vikings really took the cake here. Typical I guess when Carson Wentz is the one coming off the bench to lead it, but Green Bay thought it stopped him on a 3rd-and-11 only to get caught for an illegal contact to extend the drive. Then they got another 3rd-and-3 stop on an incomplete pass only to get hit with a ridiculous roughing the passer penalty. Then a Wentz interception on third down in the end zone was negated by defensive holding.
Did Tom Brady host a LOAT seminar this summer that only Wentz, Burrow, and Allen had the details for? How to will the defense to commit multiple penalties on the same GWD? How to get the opponent to drop your picks and how to will your defense to recover fumbles?
Eventually, Aaron Jones scattered into the end zone for the go-ahead touchdown combined with the 2-point conversion pass to Justin Jefferson, who looks elite with any quarterback besides J.J. McCarthy (and I guess Max Brosmer).
Down 25-22, the Packers lost yards on three straight plays as Brian Flores kept blitzing Love, and he was sacked on back-to-back plays, including a fumble that set up the Vikings for a 1-yard touchdown drive to make it 32-22 with 4:48 left. Love was picked off on a deflection two plays later and the rout was on.
The Packers lost their sixth-straight game for the first time since the year before Brett Favre wound up in Green Bay. They’ve also blown their third multi-score lead in that time.
Tired of seeing the Packers associated with these insane stats 😭
It’s a brutal way to lose a game you felt like you had control of for most of the day. But anymore, the Packers have shown they can blow just about any game. Makes you realize why teams usually just fire the coach who loses his last five games in a season…
Buccaneers at Bengals: Fumble Luck Sliders Maxed Out Already?
The 33-27 final score suggests a shootout, except in true Cincinnati fashion in the Joe Burrow era, it really wasn’t one. Both defenses scored a touchdown, but the Bengals’ new defense stole the show by forcing the Buccaneers into four lost fumbles (three by Baker on wild scrambles or strip-sacks). That means 50% of Tampa Bay’s eight drives ended with a lost fumble.
That’s impressive stripping, but it’s obviously not sustainable to force and recover that many fumbles, and Mayfield was still 23-of-28 passing for 216 yards in the game. The Bengals will have to get better there but at least they got the turnovers and also sacked Mayfield four times as his first game after the $55M AAV extension was a disaster.
Cincinnati’s offense moved the ball decently, doing its best on third downs (8-of-14). But it wasn’t a clean game for Joe Burrow as he threw another pick-six, something that plagued him in 2025 when he came back. That always seems to throw him off, being the perfectionist, the rest of the game too, but Evan McPherson was able to make a 58-yard field goal to save one drive for more points. Ja’Marr Chase was unusually quiet with 12 yards on the day.
But after a Mayfield scramble for a touchdown made it 33-27 with 3:19 left, the Bengals were aggressive in the four-minute offense and Burrow was able to put the game away with his receivers, converting three passes for first downs, then a 3rd-and-1 keeper to ice the clock for good.
The Bengals should feel encouraged about winning a game where Chase did little and the defense had all those turnovers. But Burrow can’t be happy about another pick-six, and he knows those turnovers aren’t always going to be for him on the other side every week.
As for the Bucs, the good news is they play in the NFC South where every team is 0-1, which is right on brand. I’d expect Baker to bounce back with a huge game against the Browns next week.
Cowboys at Giants: Is New York Ready for This? Dallas Was Not
I give the NFC East a hard time because I feel they’re usually pushed on us in national games because of the size of their media markets instead of the value of their product. Cowboys vs. Giants has been an especially egregious rivalry to feature in the last decade as Dak Prescott has dominated New York. After getting swept by the G-Men in his 2016 rookie season, Prescott won 14 straight starts in 2017-25 before leaving Week 18’s irrelevant game early, and the Giants went on to win that one.
That means for the first time since his rookie year, Dak just lost a game he finished against the Giants. It only involved the only game since 1991 (if not all of NFL history) where both teams converted over 72% of the time on third down, hence seven possessions for each team.
3rd down tonight
Giants 9/11 (81.8%) Cowboys 8/11 (72.7%)
That's how you end up with only 7 drives per team.
First time since his rookie year that Dak lost a start he finished vs. Giants (14 straight wins in 2017-25)
Sure, there was a time in the previous decade (2006-15) when this was good when it was Eli Manning vs. Tony Romo in entertaining games. But watching the Giants try to outscore Dak with Daniel Jones and Saquon Barkley just wasn’t that fun.
However, he may have new competition to deal with as Jaxson Dart opened his second season with one of his best games, leading the Giants to four touchdowns on six drives before running out the final 5:21 on the clock in a 28-20 game on his seventh possession. Keep in mind one of the only two stops the Cowboys had involved a Cam Skattebo fumble, so Dart was very protective of the ball and extremely efficient.
Dart showed patches of elite drive efficiency as a rookie, and that was impressive given he almost never had his best wideout (Malik Nabers) and best running back (Skattebo) together because of injuries. In his first full game with them, he did this as the revamped Dallas defense actually took some steps backwards with poor communication on the field. I also think adding Isaiah Likely at tight end is a big move as he can finally unleash himself from playing behind Mark Andrews in Baltimore. Matt Nagy gets a lot of grief, and I never bought for a second the Kansas City decline in 2023-25 was his fault, but he delivered in Game 1 as OC of the Giants.
John Harbuagh also found a lead he couldn’t blow, though both teams had some stupid penalties on the night. Dallas just had the last few critical ones like when Javonte Williams was penalized for taunting for celebrating a touchdown too early by pointing. That cost his team, which was down 14 points before his score, a chance to go for two early, then the Cowboys missed the 15-yards deeper extra point, keeping it a 28-20 game.
Then with the Cowboys down to two clock stoppages with 2:10 left, they pulled Dart down by the facemask at midfield, drawing another 15-yard flag and automatic first down.
After watching the other teams with second-year quarterbacks fail to impress on Sunday, maybe the Giants with Harbaugh and Dart are the one to watch for a breakout season in 2026. Guess we’ll find out next week when they play the 0-1 Rams how much of this is new leadership and better health vs. how much is playing a dumb team like Dallas.
Commanders at Eagles: Ho-Hum, the Eagles Won, and Stefon Diggs Is Still Dumb
It pains me to say this, but Jayden Daniels is getting close to unwatchable territory. The Eagles have a good defense, but he’s solved them before as a rookie (2024) when they were Super Bowl-worthy. But on Sunday, even with healthier weapons than he had last year, he really struggled to get the ball downfield, and that’s why it was 17-9 going into the fourth.
Fortunately, Daniels made some nice scrambles and smart throws to lead two late touchdown drives to keep this one competitive. Unfortunately, Stefon Diggs went full diva with a penalized celebration for humping the goal post after his first touchdown with the team. That cost the Commanders a shot at the game-tying two-point conversion with 9:59 left.
The Eagles answered with a touchdown to Dallas Goedert, his second of the day, as they found ways to score in both halves this time after they started to scare you with 2025 déjà vu after starting the second half with three straight three-and-out drives. But Jalen Hurts played one of his best games of the last two years, and Dontayvion Wicks stepped up with 73 yards and a touchdown. Like I said before the season, I actually think Hurts will be better without A.J. Brown this year.
Still, it wouldn’t be an Eagles game without a close finish, and after Daniels threw a touchdown to make it 24-22, the Eagles weren’t fooled at all by the little shovel pass attempt to tie it, so they stuffed that.
The Eagles recovered the onside kick and that was it. I get that the Eagles have a nice pass rush and secondary, so that’s how you end up with Terry McLaurin catching two passes for 14 yards. But rookie Antonio Williams was productive (4-64-1), and Diggs did well (4-55-1) penalty withstanding. They have a good mixture of weapons around Daniels this year, so we need to see better results as it’s hard to believe this guy was the uber-efficient and consistent rookie we saw in 2024.
Saints at Lions: Too Close for Comfort in Detroit
Not sure any win feels more like a loss in Week 1 than Detroit over the Saints. Like the Bengals, the Lions were a team hoping for an easier schedule and better health to key players will lead them back in the playoffs this year. It should have been a layup to get the Saints at home in Week 1 as a 6.5-point favorite, and despite some boring early action – save for a ridiculous call of an incomplete pass when it looked like Jared Goff fumbled the ball backwards – the Lions led 21-0 more than halfway through the third quarter.
Tyler Shough had some good moments last year as a rookie but they all came against losing teams. He was losing his shit for much of this game with numerous sacks and turnovers, but he shook it off and ended up throwing 56 passes for 410 yards and 3 touchdowns. Four straight scoring drives ended up tying the game at 24, and I agree with the decision to tie it on an extra point with 1:07 left (too much time).
In fact, the Saints got the ball back with 0:27 after forcing a three-and-out (not Jared Goff’s best day), and Shough almost worked the ball into game-winning field goal range. A 62-yard field goal is feasible these days, but Daniel Carlson was way off on his attempt, so we went to overtime.
I think the Saints were right to go on defense first as you want the ball last with four-down football and knowing exactly what you need. The Lions drove 70 yards for a touchdown, making it look easy with Amon-Ra St. Brown catching his second of the day, but the game is no longer over even in the regular season.
Shough had his chance, and he led another 80-yard touchdown drive with 1:34 left. You’re not playing for a tie in Week 1, so I agree with the decision to go for two here by Kellen Moore. Shough had to hold the ball, and the defense was good enough to force Lance out of the back of the end zone as I’m not sure he was going to be able to catch it in bounds.
The Lions held on for the 31-30 win in a game that looked like it might end with under 30 combined points for a while there. We’ll see where the Saints go from here, but a bit of a red flag for the Lions in nearly giving this one away. Tough game up next with the Bills too on Thursday night to christen their new stadium in a meaningful game.
Falcons at Steelers: A Mike Tomlin Tribute
For the first time since the 2006 season, the Pittsburgh Steelers played a game without Mike Tomlin as their head coach. But he may as well have been there spiritually as this was a struggle-fest against a third-string quarterback (Cooper Rush) that was right up Tomlin’s alley.
The reunion of Mike McCarthy with Aaron Rodgers led to the quarterback throwing his most passes in the first half of a game since 2020. But there wasn’t a lot of success down the field, the running game never materialized, and while newcomer Michael Pittman Jr. looked good (caught all 3 targets for 58 yards), Rodgers still stuck to his guys from last year as DK Metcalf, Pat Freiermuth, and Roman Wilson combined for 21 targets. Eleven more went to the running backs on those little swing passes Rodgers fell in love with (out of necessity) in 2025.
I would have loved to see rookie Germie Bernard get a target but he didn’t. I would have liked to see more Pittman Jr. usage. Maybe they were saving things cause they thought they could get past an injury-riddled Atlanta team – how the fvck are you this banged up in Week 1? – and can show more against New England next week. But I was kind of disappointed in the offense scoring 13 points and needing T.J. Watt to take over with two sacks and a brilliant pick-six to provide the winning margin in the end.
With that said, like last year, Rodgers’ arm still looks strong despite his age. He also threw some great passes through defenders down the middle of the field, and his receivers (Metcalf and Wilson particularly) let him down multiple times with drops. So, his numbers could have easily been better here.
But slumming it in a 13-10 game with a badly injured team starting Cooper Rush – swinging it out to Bijan Robinson was the only play he seemed to have – and still needing a Watt pick-six and Nick Folk to blow multiple field goals is such a nice tribute to Mike Tomlin.
Ravens at Colts: Unleashing the Triplets
After the Colts marched right down the field with seven straight passes from Daniel Jones to get a Jonathan Taylor touchdown run, you thought maybe this is going to be the first half of 2025 all over again.
Then the rest of the game happened, and now I’m thinking those first 4.5 minutes may be the peak of the 2026 Colts’ season. Zay Flowers caught a 49-yard pass on the first play from scrimmage for the Declan Doyle offensive era in Baltimore, and the Ravens were soon on their way to 41 points with huge games from Lamar Jackson (324 passing yards on 25 attempts), Flowers, and Derrick Henry (144 yards, 3 touchdowns).
That’s the “Triplets” approach after the Ravens lost some depth this offseason. But it could clearly work well. Unfortunately, Flowers left after putting up 150 yards and a touchdown after a hamstring injury, and those can always linger. Hopefully he’ll be okay as it will be harder to throw efficiently without that major piece available.
But it’s a good debut for Jesse Minter as the Ravens had no issues salting the game away, taking a 38-16 lead in the fourth quarter and winning 41-23. I didn’t see much from Daniel Jones in this one, but there will be easier games for the Colts to come. Just not enough easy ones to take them as serious contenders in this AFC.
Jets at Titans: Not the Revenge Game That Robert Saleh Had in Mind
About the only way Robert Saleh and Brian Daboll’s debut with the Titans could have gone worse was if Cam Ward threw a pick-six to the Jets after they had zero picks in 17 games last year. That streak added another game, but it didn’t even matter as they won 23-10 in a stinker of a game that should really crush the hopes of Titans fans that this year would be better.
I wouldn’t even call it very efficient offense from the Jets as they were only 2-of-12 on third down. But Geno Smith strung together some drives in his return to the team, took no sacks, had no turnovers, and they kept the ball for 38:46 as the Titans could barely run any plays.
Hell, maybe they should have thrown some picks and forced some things with Ward. On multiple occasions down three scores in the final 18:00, Saleh punted like a coward, including once from the New York 43. Calvin Ridley didn’t even have a target while new rookie wideout Carnell Tate had four catches for 38 yards.
Just a miserable day for the Titans, who appear to be directionless.
Dolphins at Raiders: And the Award for Worst Wide Receiver Room Goes To…
I’m still amused that they matched up the two worst wide receiver rooms in the league for rookie coaches in Week 1. But in the end, Klint Kubiak’s scheme won out because he could still get running back Ashton Jeanty properly involved with 147 yards from scrimmage and two receiving touchdowns. With Brock Bowers out, Jeanty led the team with 45 receiving yards.
Malik Willis was basically what you’d expect on a reworked team with little around him. He led them in rushing (39 yards), scored a touchdown that way, and was completing a fair share of passes early before taking 5 sacks and ending with 13 points.
Long year for the Dolphins to come, and I’d be surprised if the Raiders had many more wins too when the schedule gets much tougher. Even in this game, Kirk Cousins threw two picks and barely averaged 5 YPA.
Browns at Jaguars: If You Haven’t Already, Get Used to This, Cleveland
The Browns are used to terrible seasons as they were 0-16 in the last decade. But they could be a special kind of awful in 2026 after going with Deshaun Watson at quarterback and trading Myles Garrett for Jared Verse while installing a new defense sure to be worse than the one Jim Schwartz coordinated.
I’ve been building up Cleveland for the No. 1 pick in the draft with a season likely to be embarrassing on both sides of the ball, and they lived down to those expectations on Sunday with a 34-10 loss in Jacksonville that wasn’t even as close as the score suggests. In fact, Watson’s 46-yard touchdown pass to rookie Denzel Boston in garbage time gave him passable stats by the naked eye, but don’t let one meaningless score massage those numbers too much.
The Browns scored 3 points on their first 8 drives with Watson, which is terrible production as he wasn’t getting anything out of their only two receivers worth a damn in the last two seasons in Jerry Jeudy (2024) and Harold Fannin Jr. (2025).
The defense was absolutely shredded by Trevor Lawrence, who was 18-of-23 for 245 yards and 4 touchdowns to four receivers with Parker Washington (5-83-1) leading the way again.
Get used to more Cleveland blowouts like this in 2026. We’ll learn exactly where Jacksonville is at in Year 2 for Liam Coen with the Broncos, Patriots, Bengals, Eagles, and Texans up next before an early bye.
Next Week:
Should be plenty of points scored in Lions-Bills on Thursday night. Early Sunday has interesting games like Bengals-Texans, Steelers-Patriots, Vikings-Bears, and we’ll see if the Packers can stop the bleeding at the Jets. Could be another stunner in Arizona if the Cardinals get to a 2-0 start by beating Seattle, which will likely be without Sam Darnold (hip). Jags-Denver might be the main attraction at 4:25. Colts at Chiefs for SNF is a display of two teams who have slumped hard since their last meeting in November. Then the Rams suddenly have their hands full against the Giants without Myles Garrett.
It’s that time of year for my final NFL predictions for the 2026 season. I got cut off only about a third of the way through my detailed team previews because of a budget cut on the site that let me write as many words as I wanted the last three years. That was an unexpected bummer.
Then I got sick in August, which further delayed things. So, I didn’t get a full look at all the teams I wanted to, but I feel ready for this season to start, and maybe instead of devoting so many hours a week to that kind of writing, I can work on my drive stats database I’ve been yearning to build for years.
Someday I may predict the right Super Bowl outcome, but I cannot imagine anyone had Seahawks (+6000) over Patriots (+8000) for 2025 based on those preseason odds. However, I will not include the Packers for the third year in a row.
For a more recent mini-preview (read: 4,000 words) of the 2026 season, I did just cover 10 burning questions, including whether the Seahawks can repeat, if the Rams can be the superteam that gets the job done in February, and if the Chiefs’ dynasty is over.
My theme for 2026 is we get to see if 2025 was a changing of the guard or a façade of one. I think it’s going to be the latter, and the oddsmakers seem to agree as none of the record seven new division winners are favored to repeat in the division in 2026.
Change and the NFL are pretty synonymous. You have 10 new head coaches and 21 new offensive coordinators in the league this year. Those are abnormally high numbers, so things could look quite different on that fact alone, especially when you’re swapping out some of the longest-tenured coaches in the league like Mike Tomlin, John Harbaugh, and Sean McDermott.
That’s why I think, and have predicted below, that we could probably see a record-tying seven new division winners. With that said, on with the predictions. I think you know which players have come and gone this year, so I’m going to stick more to specific predictions on what I think can happen with these teams this year.
One thing I’ve learned about doing this since 2011 is that you can get jaded over thinking you have a team figured out in the summer. Then by the time Week 7 comes, they’re playing a big game on the schedule where six of the players you thought were important are all injured, benched, or traded. That’s the reality of the NFL. It’d be incredible if you can turn off injuries, but they’re inevitable and unpredictable.
Granted, you can probably pencil in Josh Simmons, Christian Watson, and Christian McCaffrey for some ailments this year. But injuries remain the great equalizer.
NFL 2026 Predictions: Choose your fighter.
NFC WEST
1. Los Angeles Rams (14-3)
The other big theme this year is the Rams’ pursuit of a super team to end the streak where teams with +500 preseason Super Bowl odds or better are 0-for-20 at winning the Super Bowl since 1996.
This team probably should have gone the distance last year, but they blew the No. 1 seed by blowing leads of 16 and 19 to the Eagles and Seahawks, and they underperformed as a big favorite in losses to the Panthers, Falcons, and 49ers with Mac Jones. The secondary was an issue, but they addressed that by adding two corners from the Chiefs. Okay, don’t love that idea, but making the pass rush better with Myles Garrett and Aaron Donald is the real key here. If Donald is 75% of what he was, that’s going to be something to watch.
The offense should still be great too, though I have some concerns if Davante Adams (old) gets injured again, or if Puka Nacua goes nuts off the field or gets disciplined by the league with some stuff out there that’s not great. But if everyone is healthy, they’re fine.
What can bring it all down? McVay’s weird conservatism in big spots, and of course special teams, which were terrible last year and cost them multiple games. You can be the best team in football and still watch your season burn because of an error on special teams. Watch the 1998 Vikings for proof of that.
They’re not going to challenge 20-0 or the scoring record. But I think they make amends for last year’s losses and get wins over the Eagles and Seahawks this year to make up the difference for the record they should have had in 2025.
2. Seattle Seahawks (13-4)
Repeating is hard because you usually have to do it a different way, and I don’t think the Seahawks have elevated their roster the way the 2004 Patriots did by adding Corey Dillon at running back. In fact, the Seahawks lost their Super Bowl MVP back and replaced him with a rookie while also losing their offensive coordinator.
But I do want to see if Sam Darnold has a post-1986 Phil Simms or post-2007 Eli Manning type of bump in efficiency and confidence now that he’s a champion who made it through a playoff run with no turnovers. I think JSN is less lethal this year, but they can open things up more by getting Rashid Shaheed better involved as a deep threat. They seemed to only understand how to use him on special teams after that trade was made midseason.
Defense should still be top tier but maybe not No. 1 in scoring again as I do trust Macdonald there, and the core is still young and growing. I think of all the teams that took a considerable leap last year, Seattle regresses the least, but I don’t see another fluke 2PC to beat the Rams in December, so I think the Rams take care of business in those late games and that provides the final push to win the NFC West for LA.
I originally had Seattle at 12-5 and added a win somewhere.
3. San Francisco 49ers (9-8)
Can you really bet on Kyle Shanahan in an even-numbered year when you look at 2018, 2020, and 2024? Even in 2022, they started 3-4 and were bailed out by the CMC trade and Brock Purdy surprisingly being good for a Mr. Irrelevant rookie. But it just seems like every other year this team falls off a cliff, and mass injury has been a culprit.
Flash forward to today, and you no longer have Jauan Jennings or Brandon Aiyuk at WR. Ricky Pearsall is injured and out. They brought in Mike Evans, coming off his worst season (injured already too). George Kittle is coming off a playoff Achilles injury, so I expect him to be worse this year. CMC already struggled to hit big plays last year but made it through that huge workload they gave him. I have fears he won’t survive this whole season. The defense is getting Fred Warner and Nick Bosa back, but lost Saleh as coordinator again. Still don’t love the secondary.
I think 9-8 is a fair compromise between not completely falling apart but still not returning to the playoffs. The schedule has enough easy games to get to a winning record, and I’ve always been pro-Purdy, but this goofy offseason with the injuries and the owner seeking $160 bareback sex in an Ohio trailer park, combined with Shanahan’s mysterious car accident they tried to cover up just reeks of a cursed team that shouldn’t experience any postseason glory.
4. Arizona Cardinals (4-13)
A money-laundering operation to boost stats for Trey McBride and Michael Wilson. That’s how you could describe the 2025 Cardinals once Jacoby Brissett took over, and maybe that’s how they play in 2026 too. I will note Matt LaFleur’s team moved the ball really well in the preseason and they added Jeremiah Love to the backfield, so if he somehow pulled off a good record in a brutal division, he should probably be Coach of the Year.
But I just don’t see Brissett and that defense leading to many wins for this team against this schedule.
AFC WEST
1. Los Angeles Chargers (11-6)
Yeah, while the Chiefs and Broncos fans are in a pissing match going into Week 1, I think the Chargers sneak out of this one with their first division title since 2009. It’s the same 11-6 record as the last two years, but I’m accounting for two things:
1. Some defensive regression after losing Jesse Minter to the Ravens.
2. In 2024, Ladd McConkey was Justin Herbert’s only good receiver. In 2025, the receivers played better, but the offensive tackles were injured. What if 2026 is the year the receivers are deeper and the OTs are healthy? With Mike McDaniel taking over as OC, you could see more big plays and unleashing Herbert’s arm in ways Greg Roman wouldn’t, so his best season (MVP?) is absolutely on the table here.
Of course, it’s the NFL, so even if those offensive players stay healthy, the defense could be a mash unit that falls to the bottom third of the league. But I trust Jim Harbaugh, and I think OC is the job McDaniel was made for. Not a head coach. I think it works out for them and they sneak past the Chiefs and Broncos to win the AFC West.
I know everyone is pointing to the brutal schedule in Weeks 3-10 but I think the soft beginning and end can be capitalized on, and they’ll win some of those tough games in the middle too. Does it finally lead to a playoff win? Well, find out at the bottom.
2. Kansas City Chiefs (10-7)
I didn’t get a chance to write the article “Why did the Chiefs miss the playoffs?” that was going to have a lot of detailed stats and comparisons between 2018-25. However, I think pointing out these five plays is a pretty telling summary:
Travis Kelce wipes out Xavier Worthy on the first pass play of the season in Brazil and tears his labrum.
Kelce turns a go-ahead touchdown pass in the fourth quarter into a red zone interception vs. Eagles.
Trevor Lawrence falls on the ground after the snap and still gets up and runs for a game-winning touchdown.
Kelce turns a 20-yard catch in the fourth quarter against Houston into a game-sealing interception.
Mahomes scrambles out of the pocket with two third-string tackles on the field and tears his ACL while trying to throw a pass away.
Anything that could go wrong did go wrong for the Chiefs last year. Even opposing kickers made 31-of-32 field goals (96.9%) while Harrison Butker missed nine field goals or extra points.
The Chiefs have been declining on third down for the last four years, but 2025 was rock bottom with the offense slipping to No. 22 and the defense to No. 29, creating the first negative conversion differential in the Mahomes era.
I recently wrote about the Chiefs’ struggles to find Phase III weapons for Mahomes when they’re still relying on his Phase I tight end, who has one foot in retirement. Rashee Rice is not trustworthy at all, we don’t know if Xavier Worthy is actually good at this league yet, and you can’t even rely on left tackle Josh Simmons to be there so far in his career.
It’s not a pretty picture in Kansas City as you see the effects of poor cap management and drafting catching up with this roster. With that said, they’re still a prime candidate for positive regression after going 1-10 in close games last year with four blown leads against a tough schedule. The Chiefs were rarely down by double digits in 2025. They just were one of the least clutch teams you’ll ever see, a total departure from 2024 when they were 12-0 in such games.
That’s why I think even if opening night against Denver is bad, they can beat up on the weak teams they rarely got to see (and still smoked with Mahomes) last year, and that should be enough to get to 10-7.
But I think when they play the Seahawks and Rams, you are going to see why this team’s absolute best-case scenario is getting smacked in the Super Bowl by one of those teams. That’s why they need to go back to the drawing board for 2027 as they’re not ready to get back to the top of the league.
3. Denver Broncos (9-8)
Including the playoffs, Denver was 8-2 at game-winning drive opportunities, which ties the single-season record for most GWDs (8). But that makes them ripe for regression this year, and the way they returned basically the same roster plus Jaylen Waddle (No. 2 on a meaningless stat team with constant nagging injuries) just makes me think we will see similar results, except those 13-11 and 10-7 wins over the Jets and Raiders suddenly become losses against better competition as the West divisions play each other.
They’re too good to totally fall apart, but what an early schedule with Chiefs, Jaguars, Rams, 49ers, Chargers, and Seahawks. Phew.
I’m still not sure what to make of Bo Nix. He seems to be elite at avoiding sacks. Sean Payton can put the ball in his hands a ton and win games, but they’re still mostly low-scoring games where he comes back at the end with a great drive or two. His efficiency is not up to par yet.
Also, this YPA stat for Nix is one of the weirdest splits I’ve ever seen:
Bo Nix:
• 9-0 with YPA above 7.5 • 1-9 with YPA between 6.51-7.49 • 15-2 with YPA of 6.5 or lower
But I think it’s your classic case of a team taking a step back after a run of close wins to get a No. 1 seed no one saw coming. I also am not a big fan of that Jason Licht-type strategy of bringing the whole band back together plus one addition of a wideout I think is not a championship-caliber player in Waddle.
4. Las Vegas Raiders (3-14)
I predict rookie Fernando Mendoza takes over for Kirk Cousins before Halloween. Maybe even before Columbus Day or whatever the fvck they call it these days. I just don’t see much going for an offense with a quarterback who can’t move and a bottom two wide receiver corps. There’s only so many plays you can design for Ashton Jeanty (already injured) and tight end Brock Bowers.
But I’ll be curious to see what Mendoza can do in a Kubiak offense. They’re just not ready to win games this year, and I think they end up taking Jeremiah Smith (Ohio State) in the 2027 draft.
NFC NORTH
1. Green Bay Packers (11-6)
I guess I can’t quit picking the Packers as the Five-Year Rule creeps into Year 4 for Jordan Love and Matt LaFleur. For a brief moment, they looked like the best team in the NFL last year, then they lost two key difference makers (Tucker Kraft and Micah Parsons) to ACL tears and never won another game.
My thought is what if Kraft and Parsons are back in time for the most important games? What if losing WR depth like Romeo Doubs and Dontayvion Wicks actually helps Matthew Golden, Jayden Reed, and Christian Watson play better in better defined roles for Love? Josh Jacobs is a piece of shit, allegedly, but I don’t think that makes or break their season.
I still like what the Packers are selling here in what should be a hotly contested race.
2. Detroit Lions (10-7)
An easier schedule and a healthy return of Sam LaPorta should help the Lions get back to the playoffs. But while I think losing David Montgomery makes it more likely Jahmyr Gibbs can win OPOY, I think it hurts their depth and keeping him fresh. I’m also curious to see how moving Penei Sewell to the left pans out.
Defense, it’s still on Aidan Hutchinson to deliver a great season. Don’t expect greatness from that unit but good enough to win 10 games. Just think Green Bay has more going for it to get the head-to-head win at Lambeau in Week 18 to win the division. Possible SNF Game 272 right there.
3. Chicago Bears (10-7)
Another regression candidate after the Bears won a record 7 games after trailing after the 2-minute warning in 2025. But my thought process is what if Caleb Williams improves in his second year of Ben Johnson’s system and the second year for Colston Loveland and Luther Burden in this league? What if losing D.J. Moore makes Williams realize Burden is the real deal and can be the Amon-Ra St. Brown in this offense? His numbers throwing to him are way better than two years of throwing to Rome Odunze.
Sure, the close wins and leading the league in turnover differential make the Bears a prime candidate for regression and a bad record. But keep in mind the Bears were only 7-6 at GWD opportunities including the playoffs. That’s a great record in the context of league average, but it’s not screaming they have to regress to 1-10 or the ridiculousness the 2025 Chiefs went through after 2024. They still lost a lot of close ones, including the 49ers late in the year and the Rams’ playoff game even after that miracle Hail Mary.
Safety Dillon Thieneman was one of my favorite picks in the first round of the draft. I trust Johnson and Williams enough to figure this out to get to 10 wins. We’ll see where that lands for the playoffs though.
4. Minnesota Vikings (9-8)
I do see the NFC North producing four teams with a winning record for the second year in a row, which would join the 1935 West, 2023 AFC North, and 2025 NFC North as the only four divisions in history to do that.
Could we see the Vikings win the division? Sure, if Kevin O’Connell can go 13-4 and 14-3 in his first years with Kirk Cousins (2022) and Sam Darnold (2024), then going 12-5 or better with Kyler Murray is possible. Especially when you’re giving Murray the best receiving corps and defense of his career.
But Murray has bugged me for years in that I think he’s totally content with who he is and doesn’t strive for greatness. That’s why there was such little progress in seven years in Arizona. So, in a tough division, I think 9-8 is fair enough but do see the potential for more.
I also think that makes Murray a great value candidate for Comeback Player of the Year at +650 odds as some in the media seem determined to downplay Mahomes (+150), the favorite. If Murray has a glow-up year, he likely wins it.
AFC NORTH
1. Baltimore Ravens (13-4)
My first run through had the Ravens finishing 15-2, then I realized that’s too many wins for a rookie coach. But I think Lamar Jackson stays healthy, they blow fewer leads (Chargers only blew two under Jesse Minter in 2024-25), and Derrick Henry still has another fantastic season in him minus the fourth-quarter fumbles. The kicker hopefully doesn’t blow it this time too.
But I am curious to see if new offensive coordinator Declan Doyle asks Jackson to throw the ball more often this year. Get Zay Flowers more targets. More Mark Andrews with Likely gone. More short, quick throws.
I like the addition of Trey Hendrickson as a big-time edge rusher they’ve been lacking the last few years. I think the new interior offensive line will be fine. Don’t love the wideout depth but maybe one of those rookies (Ja’Kobi Lane?) will be a big positive.
Just very curious to see what this team looks like without Harbaugh after all those years.
2. Cincinnati Bengals (11-6)
They returned basically the entire offense minus Noah Fant (no biggie), so it should be business as usual there. Joe Burrow just has to stay healthy (redundant). The focus should be on the defense, which added four new starters. Dexter Lawrence is exactly the kind of player I’d say is overvalued and won’t have an impact worth the No. 10 pick, but we’ll see what he does.
The Bengals could be the 2025 Patriots this year. That team was favored to win 11 games when the schedule came out, and the 2026 Bengals were favored to win 15. It doesn’t look like that easy of a schedule, but you never know when those games against the Steelers turn into playing rookie Drew Allar with Germie Bernard as his No. 1 receiver instead of Aaron Rodgers and a full arsenal.
Zac Taylor should be coaching for his job here. He can’t miss the playoffs for a fourth year in a row. I still think Baltimore is better and will win the division, but I like the schedule and defensive additions enough to trust the Bengals one more time for 11-6.
The only question is would a wild card with the defense clearly being the improved unit be enough for voters to give Joe Burrow his DEI MVP even if his numbers are a step below 2024? As long as Dan Orlovsky is one of those voters, I think we know the answer to that. That’s why Burrow is my most-bet player for MVP.
3. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7)
They finally got rid of Mike Tomlin after nine seasons without a playoff win. However, my ambition to make this a year where the Steelers improve to win 11-12 games (and maybe a playoff game) or implode with their worst record since 2003 didn’t come true. I just couldn’t do it. I like the roster too much but still not enough to go big in a loaded division, so 10-7 and fighting for the last wild card it is.
I think Aaron Rodgers plays better than he did last year now that he’s in a familiar offense with more than one good wideout. Let’s not forget McCarthy won 12 games in three years in a row with Dak in Dallas. He’s not a bad coach at all. Just not sure he’s got the goods to squeeze more out of this team than the typical 9-10 wins, no playoff win that Tomlin mastered the last decade.
But I think they’ll play hard for Rodgers in his final season and at least be entertaining to watch.
4. Cleveland Browns (3-14)
Woof, I think you’re going to see why you don’t hire a 60-year-old rookie coach in the NFL. It’s not all Todd Monken’s fault as he inherits an abysmal quarterback situation you can’t win from, and they traded Myles Garrett and lost Jim Schwartz. Real potential for a team that ranks 30th or worse on both sides of the ball here.
The only bright spots I see: Harold Fannin Jr. should catch 90+ balls and Jared Verse will have the quietest 8-to-10 sack season you’ll ever see.
Maybe they can get Arch Manning and a new coach in 2027.
NFC EAST
1. Philadelphia Eagles (10-7)
It might sound crazy but I think Jalen Hurts plays better without A.J. Brown this year. It happened in Detroit in 2016 after Calvin Johnson retired. Matthew Stafford had a better year, because you no longer have to worry about feeding someone his targets. Just throw to the open man, and in Hurts’ case, his success seems tied to who his offensive coordinator is, and they should be better in that area this year, which also bodes well for Saquon Barkley, who had a down year too.
But I think Makai Lemon and Wicks can help ease the loss of Brown, and it’s a career-year opportunity for DeVonta Smith as the new No. 1. They still have a really good line and defense too. Winnable division. In fact, they were the only team to repeat as division champion in 2025 (first time for the NFC East since 2004), and they’re the only one to be favored to repeat in 2026.
I could see a step back and no longer in real Super Bowl contention, but I think they still have enough to win the NFC East.
2. Dallas Cowboys (9-8)
A lot of new pieces on defense, including rookie safety Caleb Downs, could mean a quick turnaround after 2025’s expectedly poor job after trading Micah Parsons right before the season. If they click, then the offense should still be good (injuries worry me as the receiving corps isn’t great if you take away Pickens or Lamb), so you could see a return to the playoffs if they can sweep the Eagles.
But I think I’ve just grown bored with the Dak era, which is a repackaging of the Romo era at this point. So I don’t set very high expectations at all for Dallas anymore.
3. Washington Commanders (8-9)
I want to believe in Jayden Daniels as an MVP-caliber quarterback but 2025 gives you pause. Granted, he lost a lot of weapons to injuries, he was injured multiple times, and the defense still stunk. But they’ve turned over much of the defense, and Stefon Diggs should be a high-catch rate target for him to go with Terry McLaurin.
Sneaky potential to get back on the winning side of things if Daniels can play like he did as a rookie, and if Dan Quinn coaches like he thinks he’s getting fired if they’re not good. But I’m skeptical they’re going to have a winning season.
4. New York Giants (7-10)
You’ll see me repeat this two more times about the Saints and Titans, but one of the easiest picks for a new playoff team is matching up a second-year quarterback with a better coach after that quarterback didn’t have a great rookie year.
The Giants apply, and John Harbaugh was a good hire in a new situation where he can help change the culture. Plenty of pieces on defense for him, though I wish they drafted Caleb Downs or Sonny Styles instead of Arvell Reese, who didn’t force a single takeaway in college. Very skeptical of that top 10 pick.
But my biggest problem is the fit here. What bothered Harbaugh the last few years in Baltimore? Blowing leads and his quarterback out with injuries. What hurt the Giants in 2025? Blowing leads and his quarterback (Jaxson Dart) has a fetish for visiting the blue medical tent on an almost weekly basis.
The Giants get their injured weapons back, but can we trust Cam Skattebo to stay healthy? Malik Nabers to show no ill effects from a torn ACL? Dart to protect himself? He moved the ball well at times last year, but he didn’t really seize the moment in the close games they played, and the Giants were awful at closing games. Not exactly Harbaugh’s specialty in the 2020s.
It wouldn’t surprise me if it worked out, but I just can’t get behind them yet until I see Dart showing consistency and avoiding the injury report.
AFC EAST
1. Buffalo Bills (13-4)
I’m not a fan of promoting a coach who was part of the problem for why you didn’t get to the Super Bowl the last few years. But Joe Brady gets the job, meaning the offense should be consistent, which isn’t a bad thing given the results. Maybe adding D.J. Moore, who worked with Brady in Carolina, will help get them back to throwing outside the numbers and down the field more like when they had Stefon Diggs. Still want to see Dalton Kincaid stay healthy and play more snaps too.
But the biggest changes in replacing Sean McDermott come on defense with Jim Leonhard taking over as first-time coordinator. He was in Denver the last few years, though he had his most success as a player in Rex Ryan’s blitz-heavy systems, so I think he could bring a more volatile mix to the Bills.
Adding Bradley Chubb wasn’t one of those big moves like trying to get Myles Garrett, Maxx Crosby, or even Trey Hendrickson, but it could be better than Joey Bosa last year. Still, in another year where the Chiefs may not be in their way in January, we need to make sure the Bills can still get past teams like the Ravens, Bengals, and Broncos in January before we pencil them in for that elusive Super Bowl.
For that matter, they have to make sure they take the division back from the Patriots first, who only needed two seasons to get to the Super Bowl with Drake Maye. If the Bills fall flat again offensively in Houston in Week 1 like the last two seasons, it’ll be hard to take them seriously as a team that’s going to be demonstrably different in 2026.
The fear when you simply make an in-house promotion. At least they went outside for defensive vision.
2. New England Patriots (10-7)
Schedule merchants or serious contenders? We’ll find out in 2026 as the Patriots have to play the Seahawks, Steelers, Jaguars, Bills, and that’s just the first four weeks that include 3-of-4 teams they lost to last year. They also have to play the Bears, Packers, Lions, Chargers, Bills again, Chiefs, and Denver (hopefully with Bo Nix this time). Won’t be talking about an easy schedule this time.
Does replacing Stefon Diggs and Kayshon Boutte with A.J. Brown and Romeo Doubs help? Yeah, I think it does, which is why Drake Maye could actually have a better season than he did in 2025 against a tougher schedule, but he’ll get denied MVP love because the record won’t be as good. Funny how that works.
Also, I’d throw some cold water on thinking the receivers are a huge upgrade as he had a very efficient connection with Diggs, who caught 83.3% of his targets last year, a career year for someone who is over 70% for his career. A.J. Brown is more like a 64% receiver with no seasons above 70%. He wants more targets down the field, and he’s had success before under coach Vrabel in Tennessee, though that wasn’t a Josh McDaniels offense.
If Brown is properly motivated after what happened in Philly in 2025, I could see it being a really good fit. It’s not 2004 Terrell Owens or 2007 Randy Moss, but it could be nice. I just think people are overlooking how well Diggs played with Maye, and Boutte made some deep catches that Doubs may not necessarily get.
But it looks like a more talented offense this year, and you figure more touches for Kyle Williams and TreVeyon Henderson. The offensive line has to be better of course, and Maye has to get the ball out faster against better defenses. I’m still not sold he can get it done at a high level against top defenses, or that his game isn’t linked to well-timed deep shots schemed up by McDaniels.
But we’ll see where things go after that Super Bowl loss. If they start off poorly, that locker room might be looking funny at Vrabel’s message after his affair with Dianna Russini was exposed this offseason.
No Coach of the Year award for him this year.
3. New York Jets (5-12)
You hire Geno Smith to help you to a No. 1 pick in the draft like he did for the Raiders last year, then he goes out there and wins a few games with better weapons and positive regression on defense that actually produces some interceptions after 0 in 17 games last year.
I think the Jets are going to stink, but I also think they’ll win enough games against that schedule to take themselves out of the No. 1 pick. Go figure.
4. Miami Dolphins (3-14)
How many times am I going to do this with Miami? I pick them to win a few games, then they turn in the most meaningless 7-win season you’ll ever see. Still haven’t won a playoff game since the 2000 season and that’s not changing this year.
I’m intrigued by Malik Willis based on how he looked in Green Bay, but it’s malpractice to put him in an offense with Malik Washington, Jalen Tolbert, and some third-round rookies like Chris Bell and Caleb Douglas as his wide receivers. Worst group in the league. Either them or Las Vegas.
I don’t think the defense is anything special either, so it’ll be hard to get a fair read on Willis this season. But at least it’s not another year of Tua Tagovailoa.
NFC SOUTH
1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-8)
I actually think Baker Mayfield getting paid this week takes some of the chip off his shoulder this season, because I thought he’d ball out after betting on himself and getting that $60M+ AAV extension after the season. That’s not to say he’s going to slack off now, but I think you had a bigger edge without paying him before Week 1.
Still, I think a healthy Mayfield with Emeka Egbuka replacing Mike Evans as the full-time WR1 and a healthier Godwin/McMillan should lead to a fine season for the offense. I think Rueben Bain Jr. proves he should have been a top 10 pick and wins Defensive Rookie of the Year with 9+ sacks to help the defense.
I’ll still trust the Bucs to win the NFC South again. I wanted to pick someone else but just couldn’t do it. Bowles is coaching for his job and they get it done.
2. New Orleans Saints (6-11)
Another team I wanted to pump up as a surprise playoff team but just couldn’t justify it in the end. Tyler Shough did good things last year, though he did it against all teams without a winning record. What happens this year when he plays good teams? They drafted Jordyn Tyson, but living up to the worst fears pre-draft, he’s already injured.
Don’t love the rest of the skill players after Olave, don’t love the defense either. I’ll understand it if this works out, but this working out is likely Shough continuing to win some close games and the Saints squeezing out a 9-8 division title in the league’s weakest division.
3. Carolina Panthers (5-12)
They were in a home playoff game and leading the Rams late last year, but I think it’s smoke and mirrors. Close-game regression finally comes for Bryce Young, who still hasn’t had a true breakout year. More than that, you’re looking at a team that’s banged up in the trenches with multiple injuries to the offensive line before Week 1, they lost Rico Dowdle, and they lost Nic Scourton on a defense that still wasn’t anything special.
Easiest pick this year for a team to regress and miss the playoffs after making it last year. And I don’t know what you do with Bryce Young’s contract. I guess draft his replacement and bring him back for a fifth season after it hopefully lights a fire under him a la short king Drew Brees when the Chargers drafted Philip Rivers in 2004.
4. Atlanta Falcons (4-13)
I like Kevin Stefanski, but Tua going to the Falcons probably turns Atlanta into the NFC’s Mami. That mean starting 1-5 before stumbling to the most meaningless 6-7 win season you’ll ever see. Sure, Tua might get some gaudy completion percentage stats in an offense with these great weapons, but he’s never beating the good teams and doing anything relevant in the playoffs.
Michael Penix Jr. needs to play this year to see what they have there. We haven’t seen enough yet. Then on defense, you lose James Pearce Jr. to suspension and Jalon Walker for a while to injury. They were supposed to lead your pass rush. Not ideal.
But at least Bijan Robinson and Drake London will put up some numbers for Stefanski.
AFC SOUTH
1. Houston Texans (10-7)
The defense should still be great for DeMeco Ryans. This is really on C.J. Stroud to step up and earn that big extension. He played his best in his rookie year, he’s had awful luck with the health of his receivers, but he still has Nico Collins and Dalton Schultz. Drake Maye was able to get some valuable catches out of Kayshon Boutte last year. They added David Montgomery at running back and a few new offensive linemen starters.
What happened to the Stroud who was elevating his teammates in 2023? We need to see that return, and with the same offensive coordinator (Nick Caley) in town, I’m not sure it’s that different.
But I’m still banking on that defense to lead the way to 10 wins and the division title.
2. Jacksonville Jaguars (9-8)
Another team that went from 4-13 to 13-4 last year, I think the Jaguars take a step back in a division that should be stronger. They piled up five wins late in the year between sweeping the Titans, Colts (Daniel Jones injured) and annihilating the Jets. I still can’t get over the mistakes the Chiefs made in that loss on MNF that gave some early legitimacy to the Jaguars’ season.
But I see a team with unsettled skill positions, lost Etienne at RB, not sure what Travis Hunter is yet on either side of the ball, and I still don’t think Trevor Lawrence is ever going to ascend to elite status even though I guess it’s possible he picks it up in Year 2 of Liam Coen’s system.
But much like how they went from winning a playoff game to missing the playoffs in Year 2 of Doug Pederson in 2023, I think this team finishes 9-8 and second place at best in the AFC South.
3. Indianapolis Colts (8-9)
Was the first half of 2025 just a mirage when Daniel Jones was leading one of the most efficient offenses in NFL history? Was that their only shot after they swapped Michael Pittman Jr. for another veteran possession receiver in Keenan Allen while Jones is expectedly slower after rupturing his Achilles? Not to mention another year of tread on the tire for Jonathan Taylor.
But while I’m skeptical of the Colts, I will say I think tight end Tyler Warren has All-Pro potential this year. If you’re not sold on Alec Pierce as WR1 and think Jones will want to dump the ball off quicker this season post-injury, then using Warren in really inventive ways could be a way forward in this offense.
Defensively, I’m just not seeing the names that stand out like you get with the other AFC South teams above them. Shane Steichen should have asked Dolly Parton to record “9 to 8” for him as that seems to be the only win totals he knows, and I’m not going to pivot from that in 2026.
4. Tennessee Titans (6-11)
I like the idea of Robert Saleh and Brian Daboll (OC) getting another chance elsewhere in the NFL. I like giving Cam Ward a WR1 in Carnell Tate in the draft. I don’t necessarily like the money spent on random defenders, but hopefully Saleh will show his expertise there in getting better play.
Sure, a second-year quarterback with better coaching in a winnable division should be an easy pick for a breakout team. But I’m just not feeling this roster yet, and I think Ward might be the first Gen Z quarterback who could go down as a bust, but he’ll get on a podcast weekly and take accountability for it. “Yeah, I fucking sucked, no cap.” Just listen to some of his pressers from the last year if you don’t know what I’m talking about.
That’s cool when you’re a rookie, but let’s make sure we see some progress in Year 2 when you’re not playing a ridiculous schedule like he did last year. I’ll understand this one too if it hits as a winner, but I don’t trust it yet.
Most starts against 12-win teams in a QB's first 17 career starts
1. Cam Ward – 9 2. Cooper Rush – 7 3. Tony Banks/Kellen Clemens/Kevin Kolb/Akili Smith – 6
Everyone wins 3-to-14 games in my vision of the 2026 season. The playoffs came down to tiebreakers in both conferences.
AFC
1. Buffalo (13-4)
2. Baltimore (13-4)
3. LA Chargers (11-6)
4. Houston (10-7)
5. Cincinnati (11-6)
6. Kansas City (10-7)
7. New England (10-7)
On the last day of the season, the Steelers can either be the No. 5 seed or miss the playoffs altogether. The Ravens, even without an incentive to let the starters finish the game with the No. 2 seed locked up, end up getting their revenge for 2025 and eliminate Aaron Rodgers in his final game.
In the AFC playoffs, the Ravens eliminate New England in the 7-2 matchup. Then the big one, Justin Herbert works out his playoff demons and shreds the Chiefs to win his first playoff game. The Bengals take care of Houston after another bad outing for Stroud.
Like in the 2022 season, the Bengals go into Buffalo and despite the Bills finally getting the No. 1 seed this year, they lose in the first playoff game in their new stadium as the Bengals force Allen into mistakes and Burrow outplays him.
No longer a Harbaugh Bowl, but Ravens-Chargers is a battle and the Chargers find a way on the road in that one too as Herbert is on his 2003 Peyton Manning type of run. But like Manning that year, it comes crashing down in flames in the AFC Championship Game as Herbert throws multiple picks to Burrow’s defense, and the Bengals advance to the Super Bowl.
With that said, I do love this script in the way it shows the Bills and Ravens can lead the conference now that they’ve moved on from their longtime coaches, though they still can’t get it done in January for the Super Bowl with rookie coaches. The Chargers finally win some playoff games with Herbert. The Patriots sneak in but lose immediately. The Chiefs are still there but have their worst playoff run of the Mahomes era with their weakest roster. The Bengals finally go on a run similar to 2021-22.
It feels right to me.
NFC
1. LA Rams (14-3)
2. Green Bay (11-6)
3. Philadelphia (10-7)
4. Tampa Bay (9-8)
5. Seattle (13-4)
6. Detroit (10-7)
7. Chicago (10-7)
We get another Round III between the Packers and Chicago, and this time, the Packers close and win. The Eagles frustrate Jared Goff once again and win that one in the snow. The Seahawks take care of business on a Monday night in Tampa Bay, the NFC South Invitational.
That sets up a third Rams-Seahawks game since Christmas. This time, the Rams force Darnold into a big turnover (or a Garrett sack) and win the game. The Packers defend home field against the Eagles for some 2024 revenge.
In the NFC Championship Game, Jordan Love plays well against that stacked defense, but Stafford and the Rams find a way to pull it out by a late FG to advance to the Super Bowl.
SUPER BOWL LXI
Yep, it’s a Super Bowl rematch form five years ago with the Rams hosting the Bengals at SoFi Stadium. Same result too. The Bengals are leading in the fourth quarter, Stafford works the ball down the field with Puka Nacua instead of Kupp this time, and they take a late lead that Burrow is unable to answer with Garrett and Donald both collapsing on him on pivotal plays to secure the victory.
The Rams end the drought for big preseason favorites after winning two games at SoFi by 3 points each to close the season. A familiar script for sure, but this is the decade of reboots and sequels, and this is a Los Angeles Super Bowl on Valentine’s Day.
What else would you expect? That is my vision for the 2026 season. Not a changing of the guard. Just a reshuffling to arrive at the same point as five years ago, then we can have a whole offseason to argue about the same things.
The 2025 NFL Divisional Round was a mixed bag of a weekend. We had an overtime classic that played out like a Greek tragedy that probably had both locker rooms crying after it was over.
We had a total rout that you could have called after the opening kickoff return for a touchdown. Spike their boombox and everything. We had a disgusting game in snowy New England on the 22nd anniversary of the 2003 AFC Championship Game that looked familiar. Then we had another game that maybe won’t reach overtime classic status because of the overtime itself, but it did offer one of the most thrilling game-tying touchdowns in defeat in NFL playoff history.
But we’re left with a final four of the Broncos, Patriots, Rams, and Seahawks. It was that close to being the top two seeds in each conference, which would have been incredibly lame for such an unpredictable season.
But in the end, it’s those AFC schedule merchants (minus QB1 in Denver) and the two best teams in the best division in the NFC West getting a rematch for the Game of the Year.
First, a recap of what could be a significant weekend in NFL history, or maybe it’s just a one-off leading to the ridiculous conclusion of Sam Darnold holding a Super Bowl MVP trophy that Donald Trump will want, or God forbid, Jarrett Stidham doing his best Nick Foles impersonation and going to the Jets for $80M to shit his pants the next few years.
In a game that could have catapulted Josh Allen or Bo Nix to their first Super Bowl, Saturday’s 33-30 overtime classic ended up being a great day for Drake Maye instead. A game that could have huge ramifications in the AFC going forward, it was one where I joked during it that I wish both teams could lose, and they kind of did.
While many in the media want to push this narrative that you have to “feel sorry” for Josh Allen and the Bills, I don’t. I only feel sorry for Bo Nix and the Broncos fans as he was actually the one quarterback this postseason who really played well enough to elevate his legacy. And now he can’t continue this season after breaking his ankle in overtime.
In a game where people thought you had to attack the Buffalo defense with the running game, Sean Payton put it in Bo Nix’s hands on 58-of-68 plays (85.3%), often ignoring handoffs altogether on first downs. In the end, he sure wishes he would have called a RB carry on first down instead of this funky play that I blasted right away on Twitter, not knowing the 2-yard loss would be the play that broke Nix’s ankle and ended his season for surgery.
Nix didn’t take a single sack. He tied the single-season record with his eighth game-winning drive of the year, and now it’s over as Jarrett Stidham has to start the AFC Championship Game against the Patriots, his former team, next week. Just doesn’t seem real or fair, but that’s the outcome here for Nix after he played really well.
That’s the big news out of this one, and I have all week to cover where the Broncos go from here with Stidham. But the other story is Allen and the Bills losing for the seventh-straight postseason short of the Super Bowl after it was supposed to be their year. This one felt different, didn’t it? Players were visibly crying, including a teary-eyed Allen in his post-game presser.
This team has lost some huge games during this run, but I think they’re taking this one the worst because they knew this was their year. The “no excuses” stuff in the media for Allen was never hyperbole. Without the Kansas City Chiefs, the team they were 0-4 in the playoffs against, in the playoff field, this was their best shot. If you watched the way the Patriots and Texans played on Sunday, then you know damn well this was their best shot yet at getting to that elusive Super Bowl before Allen’s 30th birthday in May.
But the league’s greatest bridesmaid has to make peace with the fact that he had his worst playoff game yet, turning it over four times on one of the most feast-or-famine performances in NFL history. The Bills are the only team in NFL history to have three touchdowns, three field goals, five turnovers, and zero punts in a game. All 11 drives were scores or turnovers, and James Cook only had one of the turnovers that weren’t charged to Allen. Otherwise he had over 100 rushing yards.
Khail Shakir had a huge YAC play, Keon Coleman made a nice touchdown, and Dalton Kincaid played very well and caught a touchdown. Again, the “no excuses” thing was not hyperbole, and for all the talk about Allen needing to be Superman, it’s a miracle you can turn the ball over five times and still have a chance to win this thing on the road. That just proves the margin for error for Allen was actually higher than some believe.
Allen did some very good things in this game and was effective enough to score 30 points. But there were key mistakes and misses that will haunt him all offseason.
There was the horrific decision to be aggressive with 0:16 left in the half where Allen scrambled and fumbled, gifting the Broncos 3 big points.
Allen’s strip-sack to start the second half led to another Denver field goal, a win for the Buffalo defense that had to defend a short field and only gave up 2 yards.
Allen wasted a Nix interception by throwing one of his own.
Leading 24-23, Allen short-hopped a bad throw to Shakir on a 3rd-and-8 with 4:14 left, and the Bills had to settle for a field goal instead of a touchdown.
Allen missed a very open Dawson Knox for a potential game-winning touchdown before settling for a field goal and overtime.
In overtime, Allen threw a very low pass to Mecole Hardman that he tried to reach down for before losing control of it. A better throw gets a big play there.
That set up the fateful 3rd-and-11 where Allen underthrew a deep ball that Brandin Cooks had to slow down for, which helped Ja’Quan McMillian catch up to the receiver and take the ball from him for an interception that ended up being Allen’s last play of the game.
I’ve said for the last year that Allen is a turnover waiting to happen in the playoffs. His turnover numbers have always been misleading because of all the dropped interceptions he’s had in games against Kansas City alone. He also had 12 fumbles with only 2 lost, so that was lucky too.
Yesterdays game isn’t that surprising cuz that dudes been reckless with the ball historically but got bailed out time after time with incredible turnover luck. The luck has to run out at some point though pic.twitter.com/Fm7kmR140H
Guess turnover regression came in every form for the Bills in 2025 as he finally met a defense who wouldn’t drop his picks or fail to recover his fumbles. After the Bills turned it over for the fifth time, the Broncos just needed a field goal. To that point, there were only five penalties in the entire game on both teams, so they were letting them play despite Denver’s poor habits of leading the league in penalty yardage.
One of the biggest calls was a holding penalty that would have wiped out a Keon Coleman touchdown had he held onto it. But he dropped it, so that brought up fourth down on that drive earlier in the game.
But for the most part, the refs were a moot point until they became the story on Denver’s game-winning drive with 53 yards worth of penalties on Buffalo’s defense.
The first penalty, I don’t know if it was a good call or not for DPI, but I know I don’t really care since Joey Bosa was also flagged for roughing for a late hit. So, it was either 15 or 17 yards and an automatic first down either way for Denver. They ended up getting 2 extra yards out of it, so no beef there.
Then the 30-yard DPI flag on Tre’Davious White for contacting Mims early. I think that was pretty textbook DPI. Then White was flagged for throwing his helmet off right in front of a ref, a foolish penalty to take. Then Denver was able to kick the field goal and win it 33-30.
I think the final drive was officiated fairly, but let’s back up to the last Buffalo drive as that’s the one people are throwing a big stink about.
If you want to talk about a cruel twist of fate, this game could have ended 32-30 on a safety for offensive holding on Buffalo in the end zone. Denver would have won that way after a clear hold was missed at the start of the drive, and Bo Nix would be healthy and playing on Sunday to go to the Super Bowl. Alas, it was missed.
Just wondering if like the rest of the world Broncos fans can screen grab a play that impacted the result of the game and their shot at a SB. Call this- it’s a safety- game blouses- no OT, no questionable INT, no DPIs to debate. No Jarrett Stidham time. IJS 🤷🏽♀️ pic.twitter.com/7Jv0sIRcdo
Then with the throw to Cooks, you maybe could argue McMillian got there early and we had some DPI. That might actually be the better argument than saying it was a catch, because I can’t believe the number of people this week who don’t understand why this was ruled an interception. The Calvin Johnson Rule, the “complete the process” and the “survive the ground” concepts have only been around for the last 15 years in the NFL.
This was not simultaneous possession because they never both had control of the ball at the same time, so forget that idea of tie goes to the offense. For this to be a catch by Cooks, he has to complete the process of the catch going to the ground, so his knee or shin being down while being touched is irrelevant. He’s not a runner trying to get a down by contact ruling. He’s making a diving catch and he has to survive the ground. He didn’t.
When Cooks lands and flips over, he loses control of the ball and McMillian has it firmly in his grasp and it didn’t touch the ground. That’s an interception. I like the argument of removing the defender from the picture altogether. If Cooks lands there and the ball pops out with no defender to go to, they’d rule that incomplete every time in January 2026. But since the ball was lost to a defender without it hitting the ground, it’s an interception.
I don’t see it as that controversial either. There were closer calls on other plays this year like the pick the Rams got on SNF against Cade Otton and the Bucs when his knee was down as he was trying to get control of a ball he bobbled. This was a pick.
This was a pick for Payton Wilson against the Ravens in 2024 when he took the ball away from Justice Hill who got multiple feet down, then went to the ground and lost control of the ball. Interception.
You may not like the rule or the way it’s written, but I think this clearly was an interception for Denver as Cooks lost control of the ball before he completed the process. If you watch it at real speed (see the last 7 seconds here), it’s hard to deny this was a fluid motion with McMillian emerging with a ball Cooks lost:
My thoughts on the overtime ruling of interception in #BUFvsDEN.
Deal with it, Buffalo fans, that was a pick. I also think a big stink over this is because it was thrown by Allen, who we’re told by the likes of Albert Breer and Orlovsky that we’re supposed to feel sorry for after a game like this. Had Bo Nix thrown this pick and the Bills went on to win, I imagine a far quieter outcry over the ruling on the field.
Five turnovers on the road, four from your quarterback, it just can’t happen. That’s why the Bills came up short yet again. It wasn’t the run defense. It wasn’t because Tyrell Shavers was on injured reserve. Their best players turned it over five times on offense, and two of their vets had penalties on the final drive. Allen missed multiple game-sealing throws again.
I don’t get the sense the Bills are going to fire Sean McDermott after this one with so many coach openings out there and some already filled. But I’m not sure they can sell the fans with their new stadium that running this crew back is going to result in anything different next season.
Then with Nix getting injured here, the Patriots might have the clearest path any team’s ever had to a Super Bowl, and that would be disastrous for Maye to get one so early while Allen is still seeking that elusive first Super Bowl. The Bills would have had a chance to kill that noise with another road win next week against a quarterback that’s been so shaky in these two playoff games.
Instead, Buffalo finished second in the AFC East and won one fewer playoff game than it did a year ago despite coming into 2025 as the favorite to earn the No. 1 seed because of the schedule’s advantages.
Denver and New England swooped in there and outdid them instead. If I had to pick which duo of teams wins more AFC Championship Games in the next eight years, I’d still take the Chiefs/Bills over the Broncos/Patriots even with the latter going up 1-0 this season.
But Saturday was definitely the worst playoff outcome yet for Allen and the Bills, so I understand why they are extra emotional about this one. I just wish there was more acknowledgement from fans who want to focus on a fairly clear interception that it was just one of the last mistakes in a long line from the Bills in this game.
I’m still of the belief that 13 Seconds was supposed to be the year for Allen/McDermott, and it’s just never going to happen for them as a duo with this team. As Jim Nantz awkwardly said after this one, the next time you see Josh Allen he’ll be a 30-year-old dad.
Damn, Jim. He’s also 0-7 in overtime, the first quarterback to start his career like that since Aaron Rodgers. But even Rodgers won his only Super Bowl in his third year as a starter (2010) in his second trip to the playoffs.
Allen will have to make history by being the first quarterback to reach his first Super Bowl in his 8th postseason or more. I remember when Buffalo’s greatest quarterback (Jim Kelly) was slandered for losing four straight Super Bowls. Now, Allen is starting to look like he might hold that legacy of being the greatest quarterback to never start a Super Bowl.
That’s his title going into 2026, and we’ll just have to wait and see if this loss snowballs into a New England run that they could have stopped.
Rams at Bears: A Breaking Point or a Sacrificial Lamb Served Up to Seattle Next Week?
It’s hard to say what lasting impact this game will have without seeing the trajectory of the Ben Johnson-led Bears or the outcome for the 2025 Rams this postseason. Maybe it’s the breaking point for the Rams on their way to a second Super Bowl in five years as they were pushed pretty hard in overtime here, if it should have even gone to overtime.
Maybe it’s the game that gets Caleb Williams to work more on the fundamentals and tightening up his throwing motion and hitting the routine plays better next year to go along with the spectacular plays.
Seriously, did anyone have a better highlight reel than Caleb in 2025? The touchdown throw to D.J. Moore against Cleveland that resembled The Catch but deeper, the touchdown to Moore in overtime against the Packers, the 4th-and-8 against the Packers, and then the longest 14-yard touchdown pass you’ll ever see (51.2 air yards) to tie this game up in the final minute are four plays as good as any by a quarterback this year.
But this was a strange game all around. The Bears came out hot until Rome Odunze dropped a 23-yard touchdown from Williams. Two plays later on a fourth down, his pass was intercepted by a diving Ram, and that actually netted 6 yards of field position for Chicago. Still, you’d like to see Odunze step up as WR1 and squeeze that one for a quick score to make a statement.
The Rams had a great opening drive that went 85 yards in 14 plays with Matthew Stafford in command of things. But they really struggled after that with six punts and one field goal the next seven drives as the Bears were getting home with quick pressures, and the Rams weren’t attacking their low-ranked running defense enough.
In the third quarter, Williams threw his second interception, though it could have been argued the refs missed a blow to the head on the play. The Rams had the ball at the 50 but still went three-and-out, so it didn’t have a big impact on the game as a scoreless third quarter remained 10-10 going into the fourth.
We know the fourth quarter is where the Bears have been at their best all year, but the Rams struck first with a 91-yard touchdown drive that focused on the running game again as Kyren Williams scored for the second time. They called a WR run to Puka Nacua on a big 4th-and-1 before the touchdown, shades of the Cooper Kupp play on their game-winning drive in Super Bowl 56.
Also on this go-ahead drive, there was a 12-yard pass to Davante Adams that people are trying to compare to the Brandin Cooks play in Denver. It’s a silly comparison from people who are reaching.
This is not even close to the same play as the Brandin Cooks failed catch turned INT in Bills-Broncos pic.twitter.com/H4MYKF4AQT
This is not the same play at all. Adams caught the ball in a crowd, established control, then was held up and tackled. As he was going down the ground with the catch already secured, his knee hit the ground, then he was stripped of the ball. But since he already completed the catch, the play is dead the moment his knee hit the ground. It was not a diving catch where he had to survive going to the ground like Cooks did (and did not succeed in doing). Not the same play. Move on.
To answer the touchdown, the Bears drove to the LA 2, but Williams’ fourth-down pass was batted down with 3:03 left. I might have to look into this more if the Rams keep advancing, but I’ve always said Sean McVay is incredibly conservative in the four-minute offense, so it didn’t surprise me the Bears got the ball back in a 17-10 game. I’m just surprised at how conservative the Rams were, because they chose to run Williams five times in a row. He screwed up the one by going out of bounds instead of sliding down.
But with 2:07 left and the Bears down to one timeout, McVay still called a run on third-and-10, which was silly since a pass and punt could still use up the two-minute warning, and the pass might have even given them a first down that could have come very close to wrapping this one up. Instead, Williams got the ball at the 50 with 1:50 left after a poor punt.
He didn’t necessarily make the drive look easy, but he’s been comfortable in the last 2:00 all season, and on fourth-and-4 at the 14, he ran all the way back to his 40 before throwing a pass up to the end zone where either Cole Kmet or one defensive back could get it. Kmet won the battle with ease as the DB misplayed the ball, and the Bears had their clutch touchdown with 0:18 left on an insane play by Williams.
With 18 seconds left, do you go for two? It’s the call that will probably haunt Ben Johnson all offseason, and I imagine next time he’ll go into a playoff game making sure he has the perfect 2PC call. But allegedly he didn’t go for it because he didn’t like the team’s execution in short yardage all night. Fair enough.
I see the argument both ways, going for it and playing for overtime. In the playoffs, overtime really isn’t bad at all anymore since you can about guarantee you’ll have a possession and it won’t be pressed for time either. Johnson already surprised me once this year when he didn’t go for 2 against Green Bay in Week 16 and won in overtime as we know he comes from that aggressive Dan Campbell coaching tree in Detroit.
With 18 seconds left, that’s definitely the right amount of time to justify going for the win. You could also argue that the Rams were shook by such a spectacular touchdown that going for the kill may have been the right call.
Alas, they went to overtime where the Bears won the toss, and I think they were correct to receive. Again, put the shellshocked Rams on the field first, and give Caleb four-down football with that extra margin for error, knowing exactly what he needs. Love that decision and would do it every time here.
It almost worked out too. Predictably, the Rams got conservative and called three straight runs (that’s 10 in a row going back to the fourth quarter) and went three-and-out after their 3rd-and-1 run was stuffed. Those short-yardage failures are something I’ve been highlighting for several weeks for the Rams this season, and between blowing that run and the lead, it looked like their weaknesses were going to eliminate them.
The Bears just needed a field goal for their eighth game-winning drive of the season (tie the NFL record) while the Rams had already allowed five GWD this season. But after a Williams sneak on a fourth down to convert at midfield, things went awry on a 2nd-and-8 at the LA 48. D.J. Moore had a poor effort on a route, and Williams was intercepted by Curl on a miscommunication that really isn’t on the QB or at least not entirely. Bad spot to be off like that.
Just like the Bills on Saturday, the team that just had to get a field goal to win the game threw a pick and never saw the ball again. Stafford finally got involved again with three completions for 43 yards, including a great grab by Adams and a big chain mover on third down to Puka (who else?).
Beyond blowing leads and short-yardage runs, the field goal unit is my other often cited flaw with the 2025 Rams. But rookie kicker Harrison Mevis had his team’s back with a 42-yard kick that was good enough to win this one at 20-17.
It was definitely a scare from the Bears, and who knows what happens had they gone for 2 against these Rams a la Seattle in Week 16. But the Rams escaped with the win, and now we’ll see if they can avenge that loss in Seattle. Barring a Darnold meltdown, it’s probably not going to happen if they play like this next Sunday night.
Texans at Patriots: It’s the Patriot Way
It’s actually fitting this game took place 22 years to the date of the 2003 AFC Championship Game, the game that ruined quarterback discourse for the rest of time. The game where Peyton Manning threw four interceptions and Tom Brady tried to match him bar for bar against a much inferior defense.
It’s not that Sunday’s game was expected to be a quarterback duel with two defenses on all-time runs of not allowing yards and neither gave up a touchdown in wins last week. It’s not like anyone has C.J. Stroud in MVP talks like Drake Maye, and the consensus was Stroud just needed to be a guy who doesn’t screw things up with his defense.
Well, that was always going to be harder to do without Nico Collins, who was out with a concussion. It got worse when tight end Dalton Schultz, the team’s second-leading receiver in yards (first in catches too), left the game early with an injury, putting Stroud in a familiar position of having limited weapons in the postseason after two years of injuries to Tank Dell (twice) and Stefon Diggs (2024).
But the Texans were supposed to have better depth this year. That didn’t really show up, and neither did their hands on the road as the offense looked like a “dome team” with some costly drops on late downs from Christian Kirk (early) and Cade Stover (late).
But the fact is Stroud was an absolute mess in this game, he threw four interceptions before halftime, including a pick-six I predicted, and there was a stretch where every pass looked like a prayer. Someone just hoping to get rid of the ball with no care where it went.
I’m actually shocked Davis Mills didn’t enter the game to start the second half, and maybe he should have. Mills has as many comeback wins this year as Stroud has in three seasons for Houston. I would have told him he can’t settle down, he’s not seeing the field well in the snow, and we’re going to give Mills a shot. Not that I’d expect it’d help the protection that looked outmatched, and the running game stunk (20 carries for 37 yards). But sometimes you see better protection when a backup comes in as if the linemen know they need to do better for that guy. Sometimes that backup just gets rid of the ball better or more accurately too.
Stroud was awful, and while he was better in the second half, it still didn’t make up for the damage caused early. However, a Woody Marks fumble in the red zone after he lost his shoe was another callback to the 2003 AFC-CG when Marvin Harrison fumbled in the red zone when it finally looked like the Colts had something going.
Despite the five turnovers by Houston, the only one the Patriots got any points off of was the pick-six by Marcus Jones. That’s because the Houston defense did its job by making sure Drake Maye looked pretty awful too. Maye had five sacks as Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson caused about as much havoc as they could on the road. They forced Maye to fumble four times, recovered two of them, and the other two were right there for grabs as well. Could have easily been a 5-turnover day for Maye, who also threw a Hail Mary interception to end the half that didn’t matter.
Still, that’s why it’s so much like the 2003 AFC-CG in that Maye tried his best to match Stroud turnover for turnover, but Houston didn’t capitalize enough.
But Maye looked shellshocked by the pass rush, not unlike what he did against a lesser Chargers defense a week earlier. He was just fortunate his defense was stellar as neither team had 250 yards of offense. The Patriots were also just 3-of-14 on third down.
The turnovers meant each team had 9 possessions by halftime, and the Patriots finished the day with 21 offensive points on a whopping 14 drives. Maye had three touchdown passes, but those plays said more about the receivers helping him out with a good YAC play by Pop Douglas, a very strong catch by Stefon Diggs to hang onto it in traffic in the end zone, then a brilliant one-handed catch for 32 yards by Boutte to put the Patriots up 28-16, the end of the scoring.
The unheralded play of the game happened three plays before that Boutte catch. The Texans had a chance to get the ball back in a 21-16 game in the fourth quarter with the Patriots facing a 3rd-and-8. But Derek Stingley Jr. was flagged correctly for defensive pass interference for 17 yards, and then he was beat on the touchdown too, so a rough series for him and the defense when they had a chance to set up a 4QC opportunity.
But be honest. Do you think Stroud, who is 2-10 at such games, would have capitalized? When the Texans later had the ball in a 12-point game, they punted on 4th-and-18 with 4:17 left. I know no one wants to go for it in that spot, but you at least give yourself a chance to get a penalty to convert or something. With only one timeout left, punting is such a cowardly move, but that’s what Ryans did.
Does he not realize you could end up forcing them to kick a field goal after three snaps and it’s still a 31-16 game? Two-score game. But Ryans did the cowardly punt, and the Texans had 1:45 left when they got the ball back. Just enough time for another Stroud prayer on 4th down to not be answered deep by Hutchinson on a pass broken up by linebacker Robert Spillane.
The Patriots put on a defensive masterclass against a quarterback in over his head. I’m honestly not sure Collins and Schutlz playing the whole game would have made a huge difference for Stroud, who became the first quarterback ever to throw 5 picks and fumble at least 5 times in the same postseason. He did it in just two games.
Stroud was awful, and ESPN’s Troy Aikman had some scathing commentary about how Stroud has been chasing his rookie success the last two years, and it’s just not there for whatever reason.
The Texans are going to have a difficult decision to make when it comes to extending him. This was their opportunity for a Super Bowl, or at least their first AFC Championship Game with this defense. If only Stroud didn’t screw it up.
He did though, and it led to a loss on a day where Maye didn’t show up either with his best stuff.
49ers at Seahawks: Just Keep Hitting Snooze for 3 Hours
They delayed this game’s start by 20 minutes for the conclusion of Bills-Broncos, and even then I missed the live airing of the competitive portion of the game, which was the opening kickoff return. By the time I switched over to FOX, Rashid Shaheed had taken the kickoff back 95 yards for a touchdown and the rout was on.
This isn’t the first time I watched a dramatic playoff game end at Mile High before having a hard time ever getting into the later game that involved the 49ers (Colin Kaeperick’s 176-yard rushing night against the Packers after the Ravens beat Denver in double overtime in the 2012 divisional round).
This one was like 2015 when we watched the Broncos beat the Patriots for the last round of Manning vs. Brady before the Panthers stunk up the joint in the NFC Championship Game at Carolina. That was another game I had high hopes for and was backing Arizona and Carson Palmer only to be disappointed with a dud.
That’s what this was: A massive dud. Seattle played well but the 49ers did almost no favors for themselves as the battered underdog. They gave up that kick return touchdown, then after getting good field position following a landing zone rule quirk, they still wasted it by calling the worst play they possibly could on a 4th-and-1. Seriously, option with Kyle Juszczyk going wide against a fast defense? You can’t be serious with 1 yard to go.
Right from Brock Purdy’s first dropback and incompletion you could see it was going to be a nightmare up front, but the 49ers killed themselves with three turnover on downs and two turnovers. The loss of tight end George Kittle (Achilles) unfortunately had an impact. Backup Jake Tonges fumbled on the second drive near midfield, the third big mistake of the night for the 49ers, and that led to a 42-yard touchdown drive for the Seahawks and a quick 17-0 lead.
The last time this was a game was late in the second quarter. Ricky Pearsall, who missed the last two weeks, had a shot at a 3rd-and-6 catch where if he caught it, the 49ers had a shot to get a touchdown and make this 17-10 getting near halftime. Instead, he didn’t come up with the ball and the 49ers settled for their second field goal to make it 17-6.
That’s when the Seahawks put together maybe their best offensive drive, a full 80 yards this time, as they mostly relied on the run with Sam Darnold suffering that oblique injury on Thursday. But that wasn’t a big deal with the early lead and the way the 49ers struggled in the trenches. Darnold didn’t even have 100 passing yards by the time it was 27-6 in the third quarter. It didn’t matter that the Seahawks still had some red-zone issues in finishing drives with touchdowns.
I don’t think Brock Purdy played that poorly on an impossible night. He even led the team with 37 rushing yards, a bad sign. His first turnover came in the third quarter when it was 27-6, and again it was a play involving a backup tight end (Luke Farrell), who made a pretty weak effort on the route and allowed the defender to cut him off for the pick and another short field. Soon it was 34-6 and rout was in full effect.
Jauan Jennings couldn’t come down with a great 3rd-down pass by Purdy, so the 49ers ended up turning it over on downs with a 4th-down miss, leading to yet another short field (37 yards) for a Seattle touchdown.
Down 41-6, Purdy was strip-sacked with 9:12 left before both teams played backups to run the clock out. The 49ers didn’t have a single play gain 20 yards and only scored 9 points in the last 8 quarters against Seattle in January.
But when they’re doing shit like this, is there any wonder they played so poorly?
I’ll have to eat crow on the 49ers stealing this one, but now we’ll see if the Seahawks can take care of the Rams with the Super Bowl on the line. Hell, I think the 2025 NFC Championship Game is the real Super Bowl this year.
Next week: I’m glad the little AFC appetizer game is on first, then we can make room for the showdown between the Rams and Seahawks that has little chance of living up to the Week 16 meeting. But with a record 14 lead changes in the fourth quarter this postseason, maybe we’ve got one great game left here before a Super Bowl that could be less than stellar.
Every NFL team is fairly flawed in 2025. But someone has to win this thing. Someone (me) just slept on the couch for 4 hours and feels wide awake at 7 AM and is writing this very quickly instead of running up to bed to finish this sleep on the eve of the best weekend in the NFL season, the divisional round.
But my mind is finally clear on what’s going to happen. I have the vision with some themes in mind, so let’s get right to it.
NFL Divisional Round Predictions
Bills 23, Broncos 20
49ers 20, Seahawks 16
Patriots 20, Texans 13
Rams 26, Bears 23
Second-year QBs Bo Nix and Caleb Williams are denied from an 8th game-winning drive on the season.
The Bills’ pass defense stops Nix, coming through for Allen in a way that’s going to be similar to how Peyton/Brees/Rodgers won their first rings with their defenses making timely playoff stops in crunch time.
The Bears miss a game-tying FG in the cold to deny us OT as the Rams get lucky and escape with the 3-point win.
Sam Darnold and C..J. Stroud are who we thought they were.
Darnold’s oblique injury from Thursday limits his effectiveness and the 49ers again hold the Seahawks, who struggle in 3rd down/red zone, under 18 points as Shanahan/Purdy keep the streak alive of reaching the NFC-CG.
Houston’s defense plays very well but Stroud makes some critical mistakes without Collins, and this time it’s the Patriots who score a defensive TD and win with 13 offensive points (ring a bell?).
That’d set up for just the third time ever and second in a non-strike year a Conference Championship Game round that’s two division rematches: 49ers vs. Rams, Patriots vs. Bills.
Not sure why these won’t embed this week but there’s the AFC and NFC previews + 7 picks including parlays on underdogs, interception throwers, and TD scorers.
