Tag: Commanders

2025 NFL Stat Oddity: Week 13

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

It was already a wild start to NFL Week 13 with the underdogs going 4-0 on Thanksgiving and Black Friday. Too bad we couldn’t get Rams-Panthers on Saturday in a national window for people to see the biggest upset of the week take place. That’s the kind of game that ends your MVP campaign if it was in prime time a la Tom Brady (2021) and Brock Purdy (2023).

Alas, we’ve had 8 games with a comeback opportunity through 15 games so far, and no double-digit comebacks yet. Sounds like a good spot for the Patriots to come back from 10 down in the fourth quarter to get Drake Maye his first 4QC against the terrible Giants, or maybe it’ll be Jaxson Dart’s moment with the way this week has gone.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Rams at Panthers: Game of the Week

That’s why they play the games. You wouldn’t have guessed the Panthers (+10) would be able to take down the Rams if you watched these teams play in prime time last week, but befitting of the holiday start to Week 13, another big upset was on tap thanks to the great equalizer that is turnovers.

If the Rams protect the ball better and stop the Panthers from scoring two touchdowns on fourth downs, including the game winner, then they win this game quite easily. But after a week where I got into it with the Matthew Stafford fans for saying his MVP case was weak, he played his worst game of the season and was the main reason they lost here.

Even if you excuse the red-zone pick for Stafford on a deflected ball at the line, he still threw a pick-six, and he still fumbled in game-tying field goal range late in the game. Those are very costly mistakes.

Beyond that, he was getting boosted again by a heavy dose of play-action passes, a running game that produced 153 yards on 20 carries, and even on a go-ahead 89-yard touchdown drive in the fourth quarter, it was 59 yards from the running backs on the ground and 31 yards by Puka Nacua on a brilliant one-hand catch that may have been the catch of the year before the one Treylon Burks made for Washington at night. Far better catch than throw by Stafford.

So, he was just a bit off for much of the game, and maybe this is the type of thing he needed after everyone was blowing smoke up his ass and the Rams’ ass this year. But I was never buying it with an MVP case built around an unsustainable TD-INT ratio, one of the worst stats out there. I know Matthew Stafford’s game. He didn’t magically learn how to stop throwing picks at 37.

As for Carolina, it certainly complicates how you view Bryce Young in this offense. He was money in just about every big spot in this game, including icing it on third down instead of giving Stafford the ball back in a 31-28 game. He won a shootout against what people were viewing as the best team in the NFL. He gave the Chiefs and Eagles all they could handle last year too, so maybe playing high-stakes football for Alabama has him prepared for these matchups.

But he’s so tough to figure out as that’s now 5 game-winning drives in 2025, and 11 of his 13 wins in the NFL are with a game-winning drive. When he’s not doing that, he’s usually averaging a poor YPA and/or struggling to throw for 200 yards, so again, it’s very hard to say what the Panthers should do with him.

But these types of wins are likely going to get him a fifth-year option in Carolina and keep him around as the Panthers try to return to the playoffs for the first time since 2017. It’s one thing to come back against the Falcons (redundant). A game like this against what was the No. 1 scoring defense – that’s Houston now – is big time.

Props to the Carolina defense too for coming up with those takeaways. They’re playing hard for Dave Canales.

Bills at Steelers: The Old Man in Winter

The 2025 Steelers have had some of the usual “Same Old Steelers” games already. Winning by the skin of your teeth against the Jets in Week 1, blowing a winnable game in Cincinnati to Flacco, stepping up against the Colts’ top-ranked offense, clowning the Browns, and losing a wild one to the Bears on the road with their rookie coach.

But if there’s something that feels different and feels off, it’s the way they’ve totally shit the bed in the second half of games they were in early with contenders. Against the Seahawks, Packers, Chargers, and Bills, the Steelers were cumulatively ahead 40-29 at halftime and were outscored 88-19 in the second half to go 0-4 in those games.

The contenders have routed this team after halftime all year, and that feels different to me. Sunday was maybe the worst yet as the Steelers turned a 7-3 halftime lead over Buffalo to a 23-0 rout in the second half. It all started with that strip-sack Joey Bosa produced against Aaron Rodgers, who again was struggling to find any open receivers on a cold, windy day. He got bloodied on that hit, and he was only more ineffective from there after a poor first half too.

Mason Rudolph came into the game, and just like last week in Chicago, he threw a pick to the deep left sideline on his first drive. Then Rodgers returned and the Steelers still never scored another point. Their only touchdown came on a 39-yard drive as the defense at least produced some early takeaways for Buffalo, but the second half was a different story.

Pittsburgh was supposed to run the ball well in this matchup after showing good run blocking and concepts in Chicago last week. But against Buffalo’s poor run defense, the Steelers put up 58 yards. Meanwhile, Buffalo rushed for 249 yards, the most in Pittsburgh by any team since the Bills did it in 1975 with you know who (Juice) leading the way that day.

James Cook had 144 yards, which is more than the 123 passing yards Josh Allen had. Allen also rushed for 38 yards and a touchdown. But maybe the most depressing part of this was that the Bills had their backup offensive tackles in the whole game, and the Steelers still gave up this kind of record rushing performance against them. They didn’t sack Allen once on his 23 throws. They were more interested in barking and fighting after plays than doing anything productive in the second half.

Just another incredibly poor finish that led to about more boos than I can remember at Heinz Field (screw that renaming). It really does feel like this could be the season where they finally part ways with Tomlin if things don’t end well. It’s trending towards a 9-8 finish at best where they’ll need some help from other teams to beat the Ravens.

The standard has fallen off years ago, but it’s getting harder to recognize this team with a bunch of over-the-hill veterans who are unlikely to get better as the season goes on, and the weather gets colder and the bodies have to endure more pain.

Same OLD Steelers.

Broncos at Commanders: They Can’t Keep Getting Away with This

The 2025 Broncos truly are deserving of the “He can’t keep getting away with this!” meme from Jesse Pinkman in the final season of Breaking Bad. If you thought the 2024 Chiefs won close games by thin margins, these Broncos have set an NFL record with nine straight wins when trailing at some point in the game. They’ve also won seven of their last eight games by no more than 4 points, and they’ve won their last four games by 1-3 points each.

They weren’t expected to get much of a push from Washington (+5.5) on a night where Patrick Surtain II returned and Jayden Daniels was still out for the Commanders, but they got pushed all the way to a game-deciding two-point conversion in overtime by a 3-8 team.

Washington even had to overcome some pretty brutal officiating mistakes on the final drive of regulation just to tie the game, like a bad grounding penalty and a missed trip on Denver. But Mariota, who is not very good in these situations, delivered with an incredible play on fourth down in overtime to escape a sack and get a pass off that at least drew DPI to extend the game. But after throwing a touchdown on fourth down, Mariota’s 2PC pass was knocked down at the line by Nik Bonitto. Had he gotten that pass over him, it’s likely caught for a game-winning score.

That’s just how thin the margins have been for Denver this year. The Broncos are 10-2, but I find it very hard to trust this team in January. The nicest thing I could say is Bo Nix wasn’t bad in this game and it wasn’t an eyesore like the Raiders game on TNF a few weeks back. But it definitely wasn’t the efficient performance you’d expect against a team that hadn’t won in many weeks.

We’ll learn a lot more about this team in the coming weeks when it finishes with the Packers, Jaguars, Chiefs, and Chargers. That should tell you if they can be trusted in the playoffs or if they’ve already used up their luck with a 6-1 record at GWDs already this year.

Texans at Colts: AFC South Is Officially Three-Team Race

Once 0-3, the Texans are 7-5 and right back in the AFC South race after a controversial 20-16 win in Indianapolis. It was a chance for the No. 1 defense to prove its worth against what had been the best offense in the NFL this season. It was also a big game for C.J. Stroud, returning from a concussion.

But it’ll definitely be the game that Colts fans remember for some controversial officiating. I didn’t watch enough of the game to truly comment on everything going on there, but Houston’s game-winning drive to break the 13-13 tie alone had quite a lot of shady stuff:

  • On a 3rd-and-15 at the Indy 25, it looked like the Texans got away with a delay of game after not beating the play clock on time.
  • On that same play, Kenny Moore was flagged for DPI even though it looked like he had no significant contact whatsoever on the receiver, who flailed a bit at the end to try selling it, so that’s a huge penalty on 3rd-and-15.
  • After Nico Collins rushed for a 7-yard touchdown, the extra point sure looked like it was no good, but they said it was.

The Colts had two drives to answer that touchdown, but the Houston defense rose to the occasion both times, stuffing Jonathan Taylor for a huge 5-yard loss that led to the Colts kicking a field goal, and then stopping Daniel Jones on three consecutive passes at the Houston 31 with 1:45 left. Then the offense put it away with some runs to hold on for the 20-16 win.

Very interesting division race with the Colts (8-4), Jaguars (8-4), and Texans (7-5). The Colts have to go to Jacksonville next week where they haven’t won in over a decade, and the Texans have to go to Arrowhead on Sunday night where their season ended last year.

We’ll see what comes of it as maybe Jacksonville is the horse to back right now with Jones’ fractured fibula and the schedules remaining for these teams. But with Houston’s defense and experience of winning this division the last two years, it’s also hard not to believe in the Texans. In fact, I think if they can beat KC, they’ll get to 11-6 maybe.

Raiders at Chargers: Herbert’s Hand

The Chargers pulled away late for a 34-14 win over the hopeless Raiders, but all eyes will be on the news for Justin Herbert’s hand injury. He fractured his left non-throwing hand and needs surgery. How do you play a week after that? I guess we’ll find out with the Chargers hosting the Eagles next Monday night in a big one.

But yeah, nothing I can say about the Raiders that the Chargers’ social media team didn’t already do better.

49ers at Browns: Not Déjà vu for Brock Purdy

Cleveland’s upset over the Browns in 2023 in one of Brock Purdy’s worst games ever had me nervous about this one. Compared to 2023, the Browns have a stronger defense and the 49ers are worse on both sides of the ball.

But the fear was all for naught as the 49ers won 26-8. Granted, their three touchdown drives covered a grand total of 64 yards as the offense and special teams (mostly the ST) sold out the defense with short fields three times. The 49ers only averaged 3.9 yards per play, but to their credit, they had no turnovers, were 11/17 on third down, and Myles Garrett only got the one single sack for the defense.

All in all, not a bad day unless you’re Jauan Jennings, who is being called a “hoe” now by fellow players after a couple of recent incidents.

As for the Cleveland offense, I think the scouting profile on Shedeur Sanders is looking accurate. He’ll get you some big plays like the 34-yard touchdown pass to Harold Fannin before halftime, but he’s got inconsistency issues, takes deep sacks, and the scrambling isn’t all there. A work in progress they’ll likely keep working out instead of going back to Dillon Gabriel, but Sanders can’t save this offense this season.

Vikings at Seahawks: Not the Sam Darnold Revenge Game I Had in Mind

I really thought Sam Darnold would stick it to the Vikings to show them the mistake they made in letting him go and going with J.J. McCarthy, who was out again with a concussion for this one, putting the spotlight on undrafted rookie Max Brosmer.

But Darnold didn’t throw a touchdown pass. He only threw for 2 more yards (128) than Brosmer in another hard-to-watch game in 2025. JSN didn’t even have a catch in the first half as I assume Brian Flores employed the old Belichick strategy of taking away a No .1 receiver and making the others beat you.

But Brosmer on the road against that defense was enough on his own to beat the Vikings in this 26-0 shutout. He really just had to avoid the big mistakes in this one as his defense was keeping him in it. They got a strip-sack of Darnold, putting the ball at the Seattle 13. But on 4th-and-1 from the 4, Brosmer blew the game up by not just taking a sack before he let go of the ball right to a Seattle defender for an 85-yard pick six. That was basically the game.

Brosmer threw three more picks in the second half, and the Seattle offense didn’t find the end zone until the fourth quarter. Not that they needed any offensive touchdowns in this one.

The Vikings are just that big of a mess at the most important position. I miss the days when they had a veteran journeyman under center.

Falcons at Jets: Again, Not Serious Teams

The Atlanta Falcons have basically done nothing but disappoint us since a certain 28-3 lead, but I’m really going to remember the 2025 team as a special kind of disappointment. I thought Jeff Ulbrich’s defense would humble Aaron Glenn’s team as a way to stick it to the Jets where he was the interim coach last year. That his pass rush would overwhelm Tyrod Taylor, who is basically a deluxe version of Justin Fields with a lot of the same flaws in winning close and high-scoring games and taking sacks.

Instead, Taylor only took 2 sacks, he hit a deep touchdown to Adonai Mitchell after the DB fell down, and he led a game-tying touchdown drive (his 10-yard scramble score tied it), then after three of the quickest three-and-out drives you’ll ever see in a tied game, the Jets set up Nick Folk for a 56-yard field goal to win it 27-24 at the gun.

That’s the fourth blown lead for the Falcons this year in the fourth quarter, and they are 0-6 at GWD opportunities. I’m not convinced Raheem Morris needs to come back next season.

Cardinals at Buccaneers: Same Old Jacoby

Again, is there anything more reliable than the Cardinals this year? Jacoby Brissett has come here to do two things: Throw for 300 yards and throw a touchdown pass to Trey McBride. Once he’s accomplished those things, it’s time to fail on the game-winning drive as he did once again in a 20-17 loss in Tampa, going 4-and-out inside his 20.

Not the biggest game from Baker Mayfield, but he got Bucky Irving back, who scored and had 61 rushing yards, Chris Godwin also had 78 yards in his best game since he was injured last year.

Bucs still have No. 4 seed one-and-done team written all over them if you ask me, but we’ll see if they can stay healthy the rest of the year.

Saints at Dolphins: Tyler Shough’s First Clutch Attempt Is a Pick-Two

The Saints are 0-5 at 4QC/GWD attempts this year, and the first one for rookie Tyler Shough will be memorable for all the wrong reasons. Getting the ball back in a 19-11 game, Shough led the touchdown drive, but when it came time for the typing 2PC, the Saints’ false start pushed it back to the 7. That led to a shallow throw by Shough that was picked off and returned the distance by Minkah Fitzpatrick for a pick-two to put the Saints down 21-17.

But there was still 1:17 left as teams down 8 don’t take their dear sweet time to score the way people pretend this week. Sure, things were bleak with needing the onside kick recovery, but they got it to work out. Just like that, Shough had 75 seconds and a timeout to drive 55 yards for the game-winning touchdown.

But he was stuffed on a 4th-and-1 sneak that had no real push or momentum to it. Just like that, the threat was over and it’s another loss for the Saints.

Jaguars at Titans: Getting 1-16 Vibes

In noting Tennessee’s lucky ass win against the Cardinals this year, you have to wonder if that will help this team avoid 0-17 as it’s just been pitiful at scoring points and coming even close to a win. I still don’t think that highly of the Jaguars, but they led this one for the last 46 minutes before winning 25-3.

Tennessee will not be an attractive head coach job in 2026.

Next week: We’re going to learn a lot starting Thursday night with Cowboys vs. Lions to see which of those teams is serious about the playoffs. On Sunday afternoon, Bengals at Bills suddenly takes on more importance with the Bengals needing to run the table with Joe Burrow back. The Colts have to win in Jacksonville, which they haven’t done in over a decade. The Steelers and Ravens continue their rivalry for first place in the AFC North with four games to go. In the late window, all eyes on Bears at Packers for possibly the No. 1 seed if you can believe it. Then it’s Houston at Kansas City on SNF, and the first thing to check will be that OL injury report for the Chiefs in a must-win game. MNF isn’t bad either with Eagles-Chargers, two shaky teams. A lot to look forward to.

NFL 2025 Week 8 Predictions: The Mike Tomlin Special Edition

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

It’s a big bye week in Week 8 in the NFL with six teams off, and 8-of-13 games are AFC vs. NFC. We’ve already seen the Chargers turn in three hours of Carson Wentz torture porn on Thursday night, and it’s a surprise that game didn’t have a bigger spread given how banged up the Vikings were at QB and OT.

But you have eight games this week with a spread of 6.5 or bigger, so that could mean some big upsets are brewing. Frankly, nothing would surprise me with the way this season has gone.

However, I’ll be surprised if the Steelers don’t put in a good effort against Green Bay on Sunday night. Sure, there’s the Aaron Rodgers vs. Green Bay angle, but it’s also just what Mike Tomlin does. He’ll lose to the Bengals when he’s supposed to win, people cast doubt, then he comes back and beats the NFC team with the best record as an underdog and people jump back on board. Seen it for years.

I think there are schematic reasons for the Steelers to win too, including Rodgers getting the ball out fast to negate Micah Parsons, the Packers haven’t played well on the road, and you never know when Jordan Love will give you an ugly turnover.

This Week’s Articles

2025 NFL Quarterback Rankings Week 8: Patrick Mahomes Breaks PFF’s Grading System and Daniel Jones Joins Elite Company
Scott’s Seven NFL Picks: Week 8

I tackled the PFF grading joke this week in the QB rankings for Geno Smith vs. Patrick Mahomes. My Week 8 picks explain this week’s picks for PIT, KC, a Colts parlay, and a 5-leg touchdown scorer parlay. Also got a 3-leg teaser on lines I like for the Bills, Ravens, and Bengals.

NFL Week 8 Predictions

Props were a mess on TNF, but I had the Chargers all the way.

BUF-CAR: I really want to pick the Panthers to at least cover, but I just know the moment I do, Sean McDermott’s defense gets 3+ takeaways, Allen waxes that defense, Andy Dalton shits the bed, and the Bills win 30-13. But it is an upset alert game if Dalton can protect the ball, convert 3rd downs, the running backs go to work, and they’ll probably need a fumble recovery on defense. Still interested to watch this one.

NYJ-CIN: Does it matter who plays QB for the Jets? Technically, yes, because I would be more worried about Tyrod Taylor beating the Bengals than Justin Fields. But is Tyrod even healthy enough to be any good here? Is he any good in this particular offense? He still has some of the same shortcomings as Fields (4QC/GWD, untimely sacks). I’ll hedge on the Jets just to be safe.

.CHI-BAL: :Love the over more than anything, but I think Lamar returns and the team plays their best full game of the year.

CLE-NE: I don’t expect the Cleveland offense to do much here. Neither team is particularly great at running the ball.

SF-HOU: Liked the under 41.5 even before the WR injury news. Mentor vs. mentee game. Houston looked so terrible and still hung around with Seattle. Cautiously trusting that defense at home to make Mac Jones make mistakes and Houston gets a much-needed win.

MIA-ATL: Falcons should blow them out but who knows with a team that loses 30-0 in Carolina and beats Buffalo. Miami scores 20+ more often than you think with how bad Tua’s been, so I’ll go with the spread hedge.

NYG-PHI: Never had a good justification for Philly covering besides “they’re due to win by 8+” this year. Like it even less with A.J. Brown reportedly out. Hard to say subtracting Brown and adding Jalen Carter is going to turn a 17-point loss two weeks ago into a 8+ point win, but alas here we go with the pick. Because then I remembered the Giants lost 26-14 in New Orleans and gave up 33 points in the 4th quarter last week, so who the hell knows anything about these teams at this point? Maybe “Eagles win by 1-13” is the best pick here.

TB-NO: Baker bounces back. Not expecting a ton from NO here.

TEN-IND: I thought of taking Titans in a backdoor cover, but I really do think the Colts can score 38+ again. Can the Titans score 24+? I don’t see it yet.

DAL-DEN: Another one of the few close games we have here this week. I could see it going either way, but isn’t Denver contractually obligated to come back late against the NFC East this year? Denver at home by 1-3.

GB-PIT: Like I said, this is Tomlin in his element. Rodgers will play well. Defense will get some takeaways. Steelers by 1 score.

WAS-KC: The sportsbooks seem to be thinking what I was all week by putting Washington’s O/U to 17.5 points. I think the Chiefs stop the 27-game streak of 18+ points by Washington to maintain their own NFL record of 28 games doing that (twice). Some revenge against Mariota for the 2017 playoffs. You have to go back to 2020 to find the last time the Chiefs had a streak of 5 wins by multiple scores. And never in the Mahomes era have the Chiefs posted 5 straight wins by 12+ points, which is what they’d need to do here to cover again.

They’ve gone 8 straight games now without a one-score win, which is unlike them, so don’t be shocked if it’s 28-17 and they don’t cover the full 11.5 spread. That’s why I said Washington under 17.5 is the best pick on the scoreboard..

2025 NFL Stat Oddity: Week 7

~ Scott ~ 1 Comment

With the way Week 7 started with Steelers-Bengals, you might think the week was set up for great drama and shootouts. Instead, we got the least dramatic week of 2025 with the most dramatic ending that came out of nowhere between the Giants and Broncos.

We only had six games with a comeback opportunity in Week 7 (5 on Sunday), and only two games had a fourth-quarter lead change. But what a few changes it was in Denver.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Giants at Broncos: Comeback of the Year

I thought the Broncos had their improbable comeback in Philadelphia when they were down 17-3 going into the fourth quarter and won 21-17. But they outdid themselves this time in one of the wildest fourth-quarter finishes in NFL history.

The Broncos scored 33 points in the fourth quarter alone after trailing 19-0 to start the quarter. That’s a record for points scored by a team who was shutout for 45 minutes. Not only did the Broncos make a 19-point comeback, but they still allowed two touchdowns in the quarter, falling behind 26-8 with 10:14 left and then again 32-30 with 0:37 left. Obviously, the missed extra point doomed the Giants in the end.

Funny how a couple of plays that should have benefitted the Giants actually hurt them late too. By getting a controversial defensive pass interference penalty and a replay showing Jaxson Dart scored from the 1-yard line on his first-down run, the Giants covered those final 40 yards in 12 seconds. That’s where you’d actually like to need 2-3 plays to score the game-winning touchdown, leaving Denver little time to answer with no timeouts.

But this was wild stuff as Bo Nix threw two touchdowns and rushed for two more in the quarter, another thing no player had ever done before in NFL history. Each team scored a touchdown off a deflected pass as well in that 46-point quarter.

Dart had a fantastic game on the road against this defense without Malik Nabers. His only big mistake was that interception with 4:47 left after Denver just scored a touchdown to make it 26-16. That set up the Broncos to become the 30th team since 2001 to win a game after manufacturing a multi-score comeback in the final 5:00.

NFL Comebacks Down Multiple Scores Final 5:00

What separates this table from a regular game where a team wins after trailing by two scores in the final 5:00 is the time they had at the start of the comeback. It’s not as uncommon to see a team get the ball back with 10 minutes, score with 4:30, then use that time to get the ball back and win. This way, you have to actually complete the whole drive, score, get the ball back, score again, then finish as you have to finish for the win all within 5:00.

What makes Denver stand out on this table is that it’s only the seventh team that trailed by 3 possessions in the quarter, and the 19-point maximum deficit is the second largest of the 30 games. The only one that tops it is the 2003 Colts’ comeback in Tampa Bay, which is still the gold standard for improbable comebacks in NFL history.

But this one will rank up there, and it sure puts a dent in the Giants’ attempt to get to 3-4 and go on a run with Dart. It keeps the Broncos (5-2) on top of the AFC West with an easier remaining schedule than Kansas City.

At the same time, Sean Payton’s team has already lost to the Colts and Chargers, his offense has shit the bed for 6-of-8 quarters against the Eagles and Giants, and I can’t see this type of comeback happening again for them this year.

Better question is why is Denver down multiple scores so often in the fourth quarter with that defense on the other side? We won’t see them play the Chiefs until Week 11.

Eagles at Vikings: What’s the Opposite of a Revenge Game?

The Eagles got a great look at why they made the right move in 2020 to replace Carson Wentz with Jalen Hurts. The former got the start for the Vikings, had a few laughable turnovers, including a pick-six, while Hurts had maybe the best passing game of his career. Beyond the perfect passer rating, he hit his deep throws and they came at huge moments to salt this 28-22 win away.

This was one of the few close finishes we had this week, and the coaches in this game have two of the best records in such games among active coaches. But I thought there were some questionable strategy decisions in the final quarter.

Up 21-16, the Eagles ran the ball on a 3rd-and-5 on an unproductive day for Saquon Barkley and settled for a 42-yard field goal, which was missed. Down 28-19, the Vikings had a touchdown to T.J. Hockenson overturned by replay after he lost control of the ball after it touched the ground, a nitpicking thing they like to do with catches. I feel like if you control it on the ground and it pops out after you’ve cleared the ground, but you catch it again without it touching the ground, it should count. But they don’t make that distinction.

That gave Kevin O’Connell a tough decision to make on a 4th-and-2 at the Philadelphia 15 with 2:58 left. If it was 4th-and-goal at the 2, I see the argument being quite clear for going for the touchdown. But from the 15? He had four clock stoppages left, and by kicking the field goal there, you give yourself some margin for error to get the stop and get the ball back (want no part of onside kick recovery). With the Eagles, you can’t treat them like a normal 3-down offense. If they get 3rd-and-2 or shorter, they’re probably going Tush Push twice.

So, it looks like the trend is to go for it early these days, but I don’t agree with that in this case. The game is over right there if you don’t convert the 4th-and-2, so I don’t like that idea with almost 3:00 left. Too early to end the game by pushing it into pure miracle territory (stop, score, onside kick recovery, score).

The Vikings ultimately went for it, got it, but after a sack and completion, they ended up wasting the 2-minute warning and still had to kick the field goal anyway on 4th-and-goal from the 11. They wasted a full minute and clock stoppage just to get the field goal they could have got with 2:55 left. Bad process.

That made getting the 3-and-out the last shot. The Eagles gave them a break with a 2nd-and-9 incompletion, but then Hurts found A.J. Brown deep one more time for 45 yards, a dagger. At that point, the Eagles could just run four time-consuming plays and never give the ball back to Minnesota, which is what happened.

Maybe the Vikings never get the ball back either way, but I still think waiting to kick the field goal was a big mistake. Not everything is solved for the Eagles, but at least the passing game showed it can hit big plays. Still have to fix the running game and 3rd down efficiency.

Raiders at Chiefs: The Almost Perfect Game

The spread got up to Chiefs -13.5 once you found out the Raiders wouldn’t have Jakobi Meyers or Brock Bowers available. But what the Raiders really needed was a time machine that could bring Howie Long, Ted Hendricks, Jack Tatum, Charles Woodson, and Willie Brown in their prime to the defense.

Even then it may not have mattered as the Chiefs were as dialed in as you could be for an NFL game these days. For three quarters, this was really close to a perfect performance on both sides of the ball.

The offense had touchdown drives of 92, 84, 94, and 65 yards before settling for a 66-yard field goal drive. That’s over 80 yards per drive and 31 points before Andy Reid pulled Patrick Mahomes, and they were missing 40% of the offensive line as Josh Simmons was inactive and Trey Smith was injured early in the game. Rashee Rice scored two touchdowns, and it felt like they were holding things back still.

But like I’ve been saying for over a year, people have judged Mahomes without his best receivers available despite all the success they still had. Now he gets to play his first game in years with his full arsenal of receivers, and he averages 80.2 yards and 6.2 points per drive. Absurd numbers, and it’s not just a matter of playing the Raiders, who were top 20 in those drive stats coming into the week. The Chiefs have been playing elite offense for several weeks now.

Then the defense pitched the first shutout of the Mahomes era. The Raiders went scoreless on 10 possessions. They ran as many plays (30) as the Chiefs had first downs. It’s just the fourth time in NFL history a team got to 30 first downs while allowing no more than 3 first downs.

This game was pure domination, the most lopsided in the NFL this season.

Colts at Chargers: Indy’s Year?

Talk about role reversal. First, it’s been a long time since the Colts and Chargers have played a real meaningful game against each other. You have to go back to 2013 to find the last time they met in a season they’d both make the playoffs. Maybe that happens this year but no guarantee yet. The Chargers used to give the Colts a hard time too in the Manning era.

But on Sunday, it was all Indy from the start. The Colts led 20-3 and intercepted Justin Herbert twice, including another deflected ball at the line that’s been an issue for him the last month. He ended up throwing for 420 yards and 3 touchdowns, but he needed 55 attempts, he led the team in rushing (31 yards), and his last drive consumed 9:14 off the clock before ending in a failed completion on 4th-and-forever, a killer in a 38-24 game.

The Colts are just so deadly efficient on offense this year. They scored on 6-of-7 drives to start the game, including four long touchdown drives. Daniel Jones and Jonathan Taylor played great again.

The Colts and Chiefs look like the best teams in the AFC right now, if not the whole NFL as you just can’t argue with this kind of offensive efficiency. Then when you’re getting takeaways, it’s super hard to beat a team playing at this level.

I picked the Colts to win this game, but I thought for sure it’d be a tight one late. But the Colts have legitimate arguments for MVP (Jones), OPOY (Taylor), Coach of the Year (Steichen), and OROY (Tyler Warren).

I liked the supporting cast this summer but obviously had six years of data to not trust Daniel Jones. But he’s proving me and everyone wrong.

Packers at Cardinals: Too Close for Comfort

Maybe Green Bay fans were fair to be worried the team struggled with the Bengals in the second half last week. This team really hasn’t been that great since the first two games of the year, yet they continue getting large spreads.

Jacoby Brissett more or less did what he did last week. Gave the Cardinals a chance, gave them a fourth-quarter lead, got Trey McBride touchdowns in a way Kyler Murray couldn’t last year, and he still came up short in the end in a 27-23 loss as Arizona has blown a league-high four leads in the fourth quarter.

Good game-winning drive for Jordan Love, who doesn’t have a lot of them, and he got an incredible catch from Tucker Kraft on a fourth down. Good game for the DPOY candidacy for Micah Parsons, who had 3.0 sacks despite getting called for only the second hip-drop tackle in the NFL this season.

But I agree with the notion that the Packers aren’t close to playing their best football after the way they played the first two weeks showed promise of an elite team. Up next is SNF in Pittsburgh against a certain quarterback and coach who are steaming after last week’s loss.

Should be good TV.

Patriots at Titans: Mike Vrabel Revenge Game

My most confident pick this week was the Patriots covering the 7-point spread, which went down to 6.5 for some reason. I was nervous to see that along with all the people riding the Titans. I guess the optimism was over the new coach bump, but that lasted about a quarter here. The Patriots trailed 10-3 before winning 31-13 with little resistance from Tennessee.

Cam Ward had another terrible play where the ball just slipped away from him and it went for an easy touchdown. Drake Maye completed 21/23 passes, though he did get sacked four times.

The Patriots took it easy after the fumble touchdown and still covered easily. The Titans have a long way to go, but on the bright side, look how quickly the Patriots have improved after consecutive 4-win seasons. They’re 5-2 now, though this easy schedule is a godsend in 2025.

Commanders at Cowboys: Washington’s Forces Undermanned  

I had high hopes for this game a few days ago, then I saw the Commanders were going to be without their top three wide receivers (Terry McLaurin, Deebo Samuel, Noah Brown). They’re already without their best receiving back (Austin Ekeler), so this is putting a lot of pressure on Jayden Daniels even if it’s against a bad defense.

But the shootout was never quite on as the Commanders punted three times in the first quarter as Dallas was getting some timely pressures and stops at home for a change. The offense was still hot with Dak Prescott getting CeeDee Lamb back to give him his full arsenal, and then Daniels was injured, putting Marcus Mariota in the game. He forced a bad pick six and the rout was on in a 44-22 final.

We’ll see what the news is on Daniels, but the Commanders (3-4) are fading fast with the Chiefs, Seahawks, and Lions up next. Just too many injuries to the wideouts – I’m telling you it’s not normal to be down this many of your top guys at the same time – and now two injuries to Daniels.

I guess I was wrong about Washington in 2025. But at least I didn’t go all in and have them winning the NFC East and getting to a Super Bowl and all that. I learned my lesson from Houston last year.

Saints at Bears: Dennis Allen Revenge Game

With all the revenge games this week, I should have given some thought to Dennis Allen, the Chicago defensive coordinator, taking on his former team that fired him last season. It was an old-school mix of running the ball (222 yards) and defense (four takeaways off Spencer Rattler) that won this game 26-14 rather than Ben Johnson’s passing game.

I’ve given Rattler credit for keeping things close this year, but this was his worst game. Even after some Chris Olave touchdowns turned a 20-0 deficit into a 20-14 game, the Saints were scoreless the rest of the way.

The Bears are 4-2 with key wins over Dallas and Washington for tiebreakers. They were 4-2 last year as well, but I think it’s safe to say this team will finish stronger.

Rams vs. Jaguars: London Jags My Ass

Boy, am I glad I didn’t get up early for the start of this one. The London Jags are supposed to feel comfortable in these surroundings, but I guess Liam Coen didn’t get that memo. This was the team’s worst performance of the season, allowing Matthew Stafford to throw 5 touchdowns without Puka Nacua and without even throwing for 190 yards.

The Jaguars missed one field goal early in the rain, then kept failing on fourth down over and over. Trevor Lawrence basically had three modes: wild incompletion, drop, or sack. The only bright side was Travis Hunter scored his first touchdown and had his biggest impact as a receiver yet, but he also didn’t play defense. So I’m not sure what the plan is there now.

But what a terrible performance for a team that’s been nothing but terrible since upsetting the Chiefs, the game they must have thought was the Super Bowl.

Panthers at Jets: 0-7

I’m proud of my Week 7 picks where I didn’t fall for the bait that the Jets might actually win a game at home against Carolina. My favorite pick was an alternate line for the Panthers (O/U 21.5) to score under 20.5 points, thinking maybe Justin Fields could win a game if the team allows under 21 points seeing as how he’s 0-26 when they allow more.

For the second week in a row, Aaron Glenn’s defense was fine and only allowed 13 points, but Fields was stuck on 3 points before he was benched for Tyrod Taylor. The offense moved better with Taylor, but he’s still one of the worst 4QC quarterbacks in NFL history too, so they still lost 13-6 after not being able to tie the game late. In fact, the Jets punted on 4th-and-10 deep in their own end in no man’s land with 1:55 left. Never saw the ball again.

Panthers lost Bryce Young during the game but it didn’t matter. They’re 4-3 and doing well. The Jets are 0-7 and look like they need a full reset. New York is only the third team since 2008 to lose back-to-back games without allowing more than 13 points. The 2023 Patriots did it three games in a row and the 2011 Bears (Caleb Hanie year) did it for two weeks.

Dolphins at Browns: The End of Mike McDaniel-Tua Tagovailoa?

I’m expecting to wake up Monday and see that the Dolphins fired Mike McDaniel. It’s hardly all his fault this year as the roster is weak, he’s lost key players, and Tua Tagovailoa is playing some horrible football.

But Sunday was likely the last straw as you can’t lose 31-6 to a bad Cleveland team with a rookie quarterback. The Browns hadn’t surpassed 17 points in any game this year, and they may have been stuck there again if Tua didn’t basically spot them 14 points after halftime.

It’s not going to be an attractive job for the next coach either as you have Tua on a ridiculous contract, and Tyreek Hill will probably never be the same player after his injury and his age. Tough sell.

Falcons at 49ers: CMC Carry Job

I did something I don’t think I’ve ever done during Sunday Night Football. I wasn’t feeling well, so I went up to bed, got under the covers, plugged my phone in to charge, turned the game on it, and listened to it while being in twilight sleep mode.

Doesn’t look like I missed much as the game had one 20-yard play, and that was before halftime with the Falcons wasting another pre-halftime drive by not getting any points after a grounding penalty. George Kittle was back and didn’t get a single catch as Mac Jones only threw for 152 yards against that legit Atlanta pass defense.

But it was a great night for a vintage Christian McCaffrey performance. He had 201 yards from scrimmage and iced the game on his second touchdown in a 20-10 win. The Falcons had their shot in a 13-10 game, but they didn’t pick up 1 yard on two plays, and then the 49ers had their long drive to put it away.

Next week: Vikings-Chargers isn’t bad for TNF, but will we see J.J. McCarthy return on a short week? Finally, a break from another international game Sunday morning. Buffalo at Carolina is suddenly more interesting than it has any business being. Chicago-Baltimore is also more interesting for the desperate Ravens. Dallas-Denver will have to carry the weak late slate. Aaron Rodgers gets probably his only shot against the Packers on Sunday night, and I’ll say it early I think he’s going to win  the game. Washington-KC could take a big hit on MNF if Jayden Daniels can’t go, but Chiefs should roll through that defense regardless of the QB.

2025 NFL Stat Oddity: Week 5

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

It only took until Week 5, but we’ve reached that point in the NFL season where “no team is great” and everyone has a loss. Everyone has a win too, except for the Jets. As Artie Lange once said, there are times where girls won’t fvck you, but the Jets will always fvck you.

But I knew Sunday would be a crazy day when so many games had a small spread, and some of those games actually were among the biggest blowouts. This was one of the worst weeks I’ve ever had at picking winners as I’m 4-9 heading into MNF with the Chiefs left.

Definitely the kind of day that should make you reevaluate everything from the MVP to John Harbaugh’s job status in Baltimore to who might win the AFC East. The remaining members of the 1972 Dolphins could pop the champagne tonight, and the 1976 Buccaneers, 2008 Lions, and 2017 Browns are warming up the Faygo bottles for the 2025 Jets.

We’ve had eight games with a comeback opportunity this week, but it’s very interesting to note that Sunday had five double-digit comeback wins after zero in Week 4 and five in Weeks 1-3 combined.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Patriots at Bills: AFC East Game of the Year Decade?

The good news is we still have an AFC East race in 2025 between the Patriots and Bills. The bad news is the Bills may have just given the Patriots and their fanbase the relevance they’ve been seeking again for the past few years.

In the first half, both teams looked like they have been taking advantage of weak schedules and weren’t ready for primetime. Lots of penalties by Buffalo, and the Bills even coughed up two fumbles, including the first one by a non-quarterback (Keon Coleman) since the 2024 season started.

That contributed to the Bills losing the turnover battle 3-1, ending their record 26-game streak of not losing the turnover battle. But even those two early fumbles only led to a New England field goal as the Patriots gave one right back with Rhamondre Stevenson, who is known for that. At least he redeemed himself with two touchdowns.

Yes, the second half was like night and day as the offenses actually strung together scoring drives. Josh Allen had a bad pick in the red zone late in the third quarter on a night where James Cook was held in check. That led to a touchdown and 20-10 lead in the fourth quarter for New England.

In his first prime-time game, Drake Maye was nothing special in the first half. But he came of age in the second half with some brilliant throws that do look like a younger Josh Allen when he was breaking out in 2020. Except there was a hostile crowd in the background this time as Maye led the Patriots on scoring marches of 74, 90, and 37 yards in the second half.

Even after Buffalo tied the game at 20, Maye didn’t blink despite being 0-6 on previous game-winning drive attempts in his career. I thought his broken tackle to get a pass away to an incredible game from Stefon Diggs on the drive’s opening play was the best play of them all as a sack here could have blew things up in regulation.

Then he followed that up with a perfect 19-yard throw down the sideline. I wasn’t sure if New England’s rookie kicker was going to deliver, but maybe sixth-round pick Andres Borregales is about to start his own legacy after he was perfect on a 52-yard kick with 15 seconds left. Adam Vinatieri would be proud of that one, and I don’t think Stephen Gostkowski ever had one that significant in his long career.

The Bills didn’t have enough time to answer and took the loss to ensure we wouldn’t see any team start 5-0 this year. The Bills were only able to score 20 points on 10 drives as it’s a lot harder to score efficiently when you lose some fumbles and have poor average field position at your own 23 on the night.

The penalty yardage also cracked 90 for both teams, so it was a sloppy performance all around for both that I’m sure they’d like to improve on. But it wasn’t a fluky upset by any means like when the 2021 Patriots won by completing 2 passes on a windy night in Buffalo. The Bills haven’t been that sharp these last few games, and the Patriots made them pay for it.

I will say it’s not a great sign if the Bills need a double-digit comeback in the fourth quarter at home when they face a team that’s even remotely competent like Baltimore (Week 1 version) and now New England. The schedule is of course their crutch, but the Patriots get a very similarly easy schedule, and they don’t have to play the Chiefs, Texans, or Eagles. They get the Raiders, Giants, and Titans.

Granted, the Patriots already lost to the Raiders in Week 1, but this win should really boost their confidence. What they can’t do is let this be the peak of their season as the game was obviously personal (his word, not mine) for Stefon Diggs, who played a fantastic game in his return to Buffalo.

There’s a lot of season left, and the AFC East isn’t out of reach now that you got this win in Buffalo. But the great teams, the Patriots of old, they would build on this win and get a streak going. The Patriots have the Saints, Titans, and Browns next. Let’s see if they can get to 6-2 or not.

Maybe the oddsmakers weren’t crazy when they had this team favored in 11 games in May when the earliest lines came out. But as this game and many of the other games in Week 5 around the league showed, no one is great enough to just run the table anymore. It’s a week-to-week league, and this week the Patriots were a little better than Buffalo.

Remember, both of these teams almost lost to the Dolphins. No super teams in 2025. Game on.

Broncos at Eagles: Where Did That Come From?

We’re getting some solid evidence that Nick Sirianni is only as good as his coordinators he relies on so much. Vic Fangio stayed after the Super Bowl win, and his defense was awesome for three quarters on Sunday, forcing seven punts on eight drives while only giving up a field goal.

But in the fourth quarter, the Broncos flipped the script with three scoring drives for 18 points, including a curious decision to go for two by Sean Payton when it was a 17-16 game instead of earlier when the Broncos were down 14 as most teams like to do it. It all ended up working out, but I’m not sure the process was the best there.

Speaking of bad process, what the hell is the Philadelphia offense this year? The offensive coordinator (Kevin Patullo) is clearly in over his head as he can’t seem to strike any balance at all. The Eagles either throw the ball short the whole game, or like in this game, they neglect the run altogether.

How does Saquon Barkley get 6 carries for 30 yards to 46 plays for Jalen Hurts in a game you led 17-3 in the fourth quarter? How? Sure, the wideouts bitched about their targets last week, and that star duo got 18 targets this week. Technically, more like 19 as A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith were caught fighting over the incomplete Hail Mary to end the game in the most fitting fashion ever.

But all the passing this week didn’t help the Eagles score any points on their last five drives after that great big pass play to Barkley for a touchdown that made it 17-3. Denver finally clamped down and got multiple sacks on Hurts.

Before Denver’s final field goal, I think the late hit penalty on Zack Baun was iffy since the runner was still trying to churn forward for the yard he needed, so I understand why Baun did the hit. I also don’t think this type of late hit gets called that often.

Having said that, in hindsight, it may have helped the Eagles get a chance to win the game. Had there been no flag, the Broncos would face 4th-and-inches there. I have to think Sean Payton goes for it to end the game as 1 yard would run out the clock with the Eagles down to their last timeout. Either they call it right away or right after the 2-minute warning, but either way, if the Broncos convert 4th-and-1 with a running clock, the game is over right there.

So, that’s one way to think about the Baun call not deciding the game as I don’t think it did. What the Eagles really needed was another one of those blocked kicks but no such luck this week.

The winning streak is over, and the Eagles are going to have to play much better than this. They’ve gotten away with things for four weeks, but the Broncos had enough tricks up their sleeve to get past this team in Philly.

More will do it to them too if they don’t sort this offense out. 18 points shouldn’t be enough to beat this team, but on Sunday, it was good enough.

Texans at Ravens: Ruh-Roh

When you put Baltimore’s injuries this way, maybe I was foolish to pick them to beat a Houston team that also didn’t want to start 1-4 and can play strong defense.

But 44-10? What a walloping from a Houston team that was stuck in a 6-0 slugfest with the Titans to start the fourth quarter a week ago. I just hope people don’t act like this is all Lamar Jackson being out as the Ravens clearly are missing top players in the trenches, the secondary, linebacker Roquan Smith, and Derrick Henry (15 carries for 33 yards) just hasn’t been the same guy since the Buffalo fumble on opening night.

The final stat line for Cooper Rush is going to look bad with 3 interceptions, but he had 2 incompletions at a time when the Texans had already scored three touchdowns. The picks came later as the Texans scored on their first eight drives before calling the dogs off.

With the Rams coming up next and some of these injuries lingering, I’m not sure coach John Harbaugh can make it to next season at this rate. They might just say you’ve had enough cracks at it, we’re going in a different direction. Though, I’m not sure how many coaches would do well with a team missing this many highly-paid players.

The non-quarterback skill positions are where the Ravens are at their healthiest, but those players usually aren’t worth a lick if you don’t have a good quarterback or tackle to get them the ball.

Houston clearly viewed this as a get-right game and C.J. Stroud and company were excellent. He knew to get the ball out fast after past struggles to score any touchdowns in three games against this defense.

But that defense on Sunday? That’s not the Baltimore defense I know. I feel like the plane lady. “Those motherfvckers are not real.”

But the 1-4 record? Very real right now.

Buccaneers at Seahawks: Passing Clinic from the 2018 Class

Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold have been playing well this year and last season, but Sunday’s 38-35 shootout took things to another level. You can say it was one of the most efficient passing shootouts we’ve ever seen with the ball rarely hitting the ground.

The kind of game where the last one with the ball wins, but that’s the kind of game you don’t want to get into this year with the Buccaneers, who have now won four games by 1-3 points in five weeks. They turned things around late after trailing by 7 too, and when it looked like Darnold would be the one to drive for the field goal, he hit his lineman in the head with a ball that was then deflected for a crushing interception.

Light work for Mayfield already in field goal range, so the Bucs had an easy one to finish it off for the big win. Seattle’s defense has played so well but had no real answers for the Tampa passing game even without Mike Evans.

Emeka Egbuka continues to be one of the most impressive rookie wideouts you’ll ever see too. Caught all 7 targets for 163 yards and another touchdown. He just plays like he’s a 5-year vet in his absolute prime.

Tough way for the Seahawks to lose some ground in the NFC at home.

Commanders at Chargers: I’m Disappointed

I really thought this game had the potential to be Sunday’s best with the Chargers coming off a loss and Jayden Daniels returning for the Commanders. Daniels did his part, but the Chargers were very disappointing with 10 points scored. Justin Herbert learning exactly how hard it is when your right tackle is wasting big gains with penalties, your left tackle (Joe Alt) is out, and you’re getting a pass deflected at the line (again) for a pick.

It looked like Herbert threw his red-zone pick right to the defender but it was a deflection. That was the killer as the score was 20-10 at the time in the fourth quarter.

Then the Commanders drove 99 yards for a touchdown they didn’t necessarily need on 4th-and-goal, but I’ll sure take it since the Deebo Samuel score hit a parlay for me. I like to think that’s good karma for me singing the praises of Daniels since early last season.

But yeah, I think Herbert has really damaged his MVP chances these last two games, and the Chargers are looking like a team that’s not ready after all to overtake the Chiefs in the AFC West. Long way to go but funny how big a difference two weeks can make in this league.

Raiders at Colts: Geno Smith Spending His Nights in the Casinos?

“Diminishing returns” was probably the phrase I used the most this offseason about Geno Smith’s tenure in Seattle. But he was better than this in 2024. He’s just throwing anything he feels like with the Raiders, and he couldn’t even get the ball in the end zone once in this 40-6 loss.

Meanwhile, Daniel Jones was sharp again. No sacks, no turnovers. The Colts scored six straight touchdowns at one point. Granted, turnovers and a blocked punt meant three of them covered 58 yards, but they had drives of 83, 88, and 68 yards too.

A good sign that this offense and defense can just roll an inferior team like this.

Browns vs. Vikings: London Calling, And You Are Not the LOAT

I missed most of this game (sleeping), but it seems like Dillon Gabrield handled himself pretty well. No turnovers. Led a couple of touchdown drives (one of respectable length/effort) against a defense that’s supposed to be so hard to figure out.

But probably not going to be the next LOAT if your defense is giving up a clutch drive to Carson Wentz in London.

I thought Cleveland stayed pretty conservative on offense late and didn’t put this one away. You give Wentz five drives with those weapons to get a go-ahead touchdown, and chances are he’ll do it eventually. He was good on the last drive as was Jordan Addison on the game winner.

Lions at Bengals: Jake Browning Is Blowing It

I know some of the numbers look gaudy like those for Jared Goff, but the Detroit offense was not that special in Cincinnati. The running game only averaged 3.6 yards per carry. Detroit had 14 points on six first-half drives, but that included a 17-yard drive after a Jake Browning interception.

I think this game is the opposite of Ravens-Texans in the way the backup quarterback was the one throwing the game away early here before the defense did so late. Browning’s three picks were largely brutal and in his own end of the field, making it too easy on Detroit’s offense.

The nicest thing I can say is Browning did well enough after it was 28-3 that he’ll probably keep his job for the next game. But this was just so poor early that the Bengals never stood much of a chance.

Titans at Cardinals: What. The. Fvck?

You want to see one of the worst blown leads in NFL history? Bookmark this game. The Cardinals led 21-3, so Cam Ward gets his first win and first game-winning drive with an 18-point comeback, but I can’t really give him much credit outside of the last drive was nice to set up the field goal.

But it should never have come to that. Arizona’s inability to add to the 21-6 lead in the second half is all-time bad stuff from an NFL team.

First, Kyler Murray has a fumbled snap play at the Tennessee 20 where he looks woozy and has to temporarily leave the game; just a weird looking play they described as a foot issue.

In the fourth quarter, third-year back Emari Demercado breaks off what should be a 72-yard touchdown run to make it 28-6. But when he started slowing down despite L’Jarius Snead’s pursuit, I knew he was in trouble. This was going to be a Leon Lett situation all over again. But then he dropped the ball early to celebrate and it became the 2008 DeSean Jackson play, which is about the dumbest thing you can do in a game. Adonai Mitchell (Colts) just did this shit last week to cost the Colts a game.

I would cut his ass tomorrow. He’s a UDFA who just fumbled the biggest run of his career. He’s expendable. Make a point to the rest of the league that if you do this, you get cut.

From there, good deep throw by Ward to Calvin Ridley for 47 yards to set up a touchdown, though the Cardinals missed an extra point some would argue they shouldn’t have been kicking anyway. So, it was still a 2-score game at 21-12. Then with just under 5:00 left, Ward gets picked on a tipped ball that is somehow fumbled, recovered by the Titans and good for a touchdown to make it 21-19. Just one of the craziest bounces you’ll ever see.

Let’s not close the book on Ward’s LOAT case yet. My goodness. Then of course, lackadaisical Murray and his offense couldn’t close the deal on their end with some conservative runs by the coordinator. That put it on the defense in the last two minutes, and for the third week in a row, the Cardinals watched a team win on a field goal with no time left on the clock, a first in NFL history.

This was some serious 2006 Rex Grossman shit by Tennessee winning the game that way. I wouldn’t be surprised if Arizona (2-3) craters from here a la Chicago last year after the Hail Mary in Washington.

Giants at Saints: Dropping the Dart on Your Foot

I picked the Saints to get their first win for coach Kellen Moore and quarterback Spencer Rattler as they just have more weapons to lean on than the Giants do with Malik Nabers out. That certainly proved true, but it’s not like the Giants didn’t literally fumble this game away after an early 14-3 lead before the Saints scored the final 23 points.

Jaxson Dart, they show his mom more in one game than all of Taylor Swift’s screentime in 2024. But Dart had a really bad fumble in the second half where he just dropped the ball on a scramble. Then Cam Skattebo, the other Great White Hope here had a bigger fumble that was returned for a touchdown one play into the fourth quarter when the Giants were down 19-14. That was a dagger.

Should the Saints have drafted Dart? Maybe. But this game certainly didn’t make them feel regret.

Dolphins at Panthers: One Man’s Trash Is Another Man’s Super Bowl to Call

I know Mark Sanchez has a different role (analyst) for FOX than Eric Collins (play-by-play), but it’s amusing to view this weekend as the one where FOX likely lost one and gained the other. We’ll see what the facts say about the Sanchez fight/stabbing case, but it doesn’t sound promising for his innocence and future employment.

Meanwhile, Collins may have just supplanted Gus Johnson as the guy who can bring energy to NFL games you really don’t want to watch. This guy got a 17-0 stinker between the Dolphins and Panthers where Miami forgot how to score and the Panthers kept making big play after big play behind Rico Dowdle (206 rushing yards) and company.

It ended up going back and forth, and you would have thought from the way Collins, the voice of the Charlotte Hornets, called the game that you were watching a Super Bowl or something important.

When I heard Collins say, “the Dolphins are hanging on like a cat on a screen door” I knew something great was going to come out of this guy’s mouth after that gem, and he took the internet by storm with his enthusiastic calls:

From now on, I want Eric Collins calling D-crew games. Screw hearing the likes of Spero Dedes or Jonathan Vilma doing games involving the Cardinals, Titans, Panthers, and Saints. Give me Mr. Collins from now on. Please and thank you.

But yeah, the Dolphins (1-4) are pure trash to blow a 17-point lead to a team as bad as Carolina.

Cowboys at Jets: Just End the Season…

Any idea that the Cowboys were a road fraud on offense this year was shut down by the poor defense the Jets play on a weekly basis for Aaron Glenn. The Cowboys were balanced with four touchdown passes from Dak and 180 rushing yards. I never even heard of Ryan Flournoy (2024 sixth-round pick), but the Cowboys got 114 receiving yards out of him with CeeDee Lamb still out.

Dallas led 30-3 late in the third quarter before some points in garbage time for Justin Fields and the offense. That’s two weeks in a row I picked the Jets and got burned badly. I just don’t think you can pick them to win right now. They’re poor on both sides of the ball.

Next week: Eagles-Giants on TNF isn’t the best way to start a week, but maybe some divisional drama can emerge. No chance in hell I’m getting up for Broncos-Jets in London or Germany or whatever they’re doing this week. We’ll see if the Rams can drop the Ravens to 1-5, and at this point, why shouldn’t they? Sunday afternoon is pretty bad (Bucs-49ers the best?) but it gives way to a hell of a game at night with Lions-Chiefs. Then it’s another one of those silly MNF overlapped doubleheaders (Bills-Falcons and Bears-Commanders). Much better games than last week’s, at least.

NFL 2024 Conference Championship Predictions: Historic Day Edition

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

We’re here. About 12 hours from the point I’m writing this, they’ll kick off the NFC Championship Game, and that will begin what could be one of the most important days in NFL history depending on how these games go.

Just think of all the history and streaks on the line today:

  • The Chiefs can become the first team to reach the Super Bowl after repeating, putting them one win away from the three-peat.
  • A 10th-straight playoff win would also tie the Patriots for the all-time record.
  • The Chiefs have gone 8 straight games without a giveaway (NFL record).
  • The Chiefs have won 16 straight one-score games (NFL record).
  • The Bills have 8 giveaways in 19 games (NFL record for any season or any 19-game span).
  • The Bills have not lost the turnover battle in 21 straight games (longest streak in Super Bowl era).
  • The Bills are the only team since at least 1992 to have 0 lost fumbles by non-quarterbacks.
  • The Bills could break the Five-Year Rule if they win the Super Bowl in Year 7 of Sean McDermott/Josh Allen as no team has ever won its first Super Bowl starting the same quarterback for the same coach for more than five years.
  • The Commanders can become the first team in NFL history to reach the Super Bowl with a rookie quarterback (Jayden Daniels).
  • The Commanders can become the first team in NFL history to score at least 18 points in 20 consecutive games in a season.
  • The Eagles, well, they’re playing too. I guess Saquon Barkley can still set the single-season rushing record (playoffs included).

That’s a lot of stuff. I absolutely have a preferred rooting interest in seeing Commanders-Chiefs in two weeks. Unfortunately, that feels like the least likely outcome. I also have a very strong objection to seeing Bills-Eagles in two weeks. Unfortunately, that feels like the most likely outcome, or at least second right now. But crazier things have happened, and you can’t argue with these facts that add a lot of drama to the day:

  • The Commanders are the only team to beat the Eagles since October, and the only team to score more than 23 points against them in that time.
  • The Bills are the only team to beat the Chiefs’ starters this season, and the only team to score 30 points on that starting defense in the last two seasons.

Home teams usually win this round, but these teams have shown vulnerabilities despite their winning ways, and they are facing the teams arguably best equipped to beat them. That’s what makes it so interesting.

And while people are bitching left and right about officiating, let’s not lose the plot on turnovers this week. None of these final four teams have a giveaway in the playoffs. That’s never happened before since they’ve done this round in 1970. The teams who lose are likely going to suffer some devastating turnovers today that will go down in playoff infamy.

This Week’s Articles

NFL Conference Championship Predictions

Commanders at Eagles (-6.5)

I said in my preview and picks I was taking the Commanders, but can I get a redo? I’m just getting a bad vibe with the Commanders having some big losses in the trenches (Cosmi and DaRon Payne) on both sides of the ball. They were already at a disadvantage against the Eagles, who have the better defense, better run game/OL, and are home.

It’s a lot to overcome, but maybe if Jalen Hurts’ mobility is limited, that will be a great equalizer for this game. They still have Barkley, and I expect him to carve up the Commanders again. But they beat him running for 150 yards last time. The Rams were 13 yards away from beating this team with Barkley going for 200 again. Hell, the Browns (with Predator), Jaguars (with Trevor Lawrence playing terrible), and the Panthers (until the raccoon eater dropped the TD) all nearly won in Philly this year.

A team on a 7-game winning streak can beat this Philadelphia team. I know we should fade rookies in this spot, but what if Daniels is just that 1 of 1 rookie who makes history by getting to the Super Bowl? He’s already carrying the team like a veteran and doing things this postseason no one else has done (forget experience level):

https://twitter.com/ScottKacsmar/status/1882934544984334827

It’s asking a lot of Daniels, but I think he can outplay Hurts, withstand the impact of Barkley, and the Commanders just need a turnover or two to pull off the upset and go to the Super Bowl. We’re overdue for a No. 6 seed going on a miracle run.

Final: Commanders 24, Eagles 20

Bills at Chiefs (-1.5)

The theme for this game for me is turnovers. In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised if the team that has a turnover meltdown loses this game by 10+ points. Which team is more likely to do that? Well, the Bills have fewer turnovers than the Chiefs and are much better at creating takeaways on defense, so that’s an easy call.

However, how crazy would it be if the game didn’t feature a single turnover? Not that crazy. The 42-36 “13 Seconds” game between these teams didn’t have a turnover. The 2024 Chiefs are also the first team in NFL history to play 5 games in a season where neither team turned it over. The only giveaway by either team in the last 8 games was Josh Allen’s deep ball intercepted by the Patriots. That’s it.

Referees are unfortunately the other big talking point. After the absurd reaction to the officiating in KC’s last game, which has been a running theme since the Bengals game in Week 2, I’m not sure the officiating won’t be overcorrected in this game to the point where the Chiefs can’t buy an easy call and are getting hit for the most ridiculous stuff to “balance” things out for the masses of idiots out there.

Every time you threaten the league with a conspiracy that it’s rigged for one team, I’d expect some kind of overcorrection. Maybe it’s calling a phantom DPI on the Chiefs on 3rd-and-long, a dubious roughing penalty for a hit on Josh Allen, and you can count on the Chiefs to get hit for holding to wipe out some good offensive gains (it’s a problem for them period).

Even the ref assignment reeks of “that’ll teach them” as the Chiefs are just 6-5 when Clete Blakeman is their ref, including some of the toughest losses in the Mahomes era (2018 AFC-CG, 54-51, their last home loss on Christmas 2023). He’s flag happy, and that’s not promising.

Purely from a matchup standpoint, the Chiefs should be healthier and have more players to help them in Week 11. I’m still not sold they didn’t try hard to win that game, but 4 targets for Kelce, not a single rush by Mahomes, and some other weird things like overuse of play-action and no QB spy on 4th & 2 vs. Allen tells me they were experimenting and should have some tricks up their sleeves this time Also, getting Nazeeh Johnson away from the field to play Jaylen Watson at corner should help.

Expecting the Bills to have edges at turnovers and refs, I think you also have to give them a better OL advantage. I’m still not sure the Chiefs aren’t hurting themselves by moving Joe Thuney to guard instead of keeping him there and playing DJ Humphries at left tackle. Might be taking away from the run, and that’s another issue. I think Hunt deserves more touches than Pacheco. The Chiefs have all these new, moving pieces (Hopkins, Hollywood) and I’m not sure they’ve figured out how to utilize them all properly yet. The margin for error has been tiny all year and they only lost one game, but it was also to their opponent today. That’s not good news. Harrison Butker also concerns me this year.

Andy Reid has lost 4 title games at home in his career, including twice with Mahomes after getting swept by the 2018 Pats and 2021 Bengals. The 2024 Bills could certainly join that list. It’s hard to bet against the Chiefs after last year’s title run, and then going 16-1 with starters, but maybe the Bills finally have enough to get the job done here.

This feels like a coin flip game and I don’t mean OT. It could just come down to Buffalo finishing +1 in turnovers and beating the Chiefs at their own game by walking that defense down the field for a GW FG with no time left (Tyler Bass’ redemption) after a Pacheco fumble. Yeah, that’s a 1990 NFC-CG Roger Craig reference, the closest three-peat attempt ever. The Chiefs should be properly motivated, but they’ve been playing with fire all year and I fear the Bills are the only team that can burn them in the AFC a step short of glory.

Final: Bills 27, Chiefs 24

2024 NFL Stat Oddity: Divisional Round

~ Scott ~ 1 Comment

After a lackluster wild card round, the NFL’s divisional round delivered with the Chiefs inching closer to the three-peat, the Commanders pulling off an all-time upset in Detroit, a quality snow game in Philadelphia, and the most Baltimore ending possible in Buffalo.

I couldn’t personally get a parlay to hit, but at least my tight ends parlay (+539) on 365Scores was correct, and I had some other good picks like Travis Kelce having another 70-yard game in the postseason, Amon-Ra St. Brown going over 90 yards, and Terry McLaurin scoring a touchdown.

At least I was right that Ravens-Bills would not be a great quarterback duel, and it would come down to those things like fumble recoveries and avoiding big drops, which the Ravens of course failed to do again.

I’ll try to limit officiating talk here because I’d prefer to do something more in depth on that later this week. Plus, it’s just really annoying to harp on that for every game when we know the officiating is bad. None of these games were directly decided by the refs.

Save that kind of referee talk for Championship Sunday from the 2018 season (IYKYK)

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Ravens at Bills: Baltimore Blunders Strike Again

I’ll be curious to watch the season finale of Hard Knocks this week and see how John Harbaugh reacts to the latest playoff loss for his Ravens. This one was different, and yet at the same time, it was very much on brand for Baltimore throughout his tenure. I’m not sure any other recent franchise has a long list of blunders like this in close playoff losses:

https://twitter.com/ScottKacsmar/status/1881204200320716801

Some of those games weren’t that close (2009 Colts, 2019 Titans), but many were, and many of these plays can probably be visualized in your head by their brief mention if you’ve followed the NFL closely for years.

I’ve pounded the table for the “Same Old Steelers, let’s fire Mike Tomlin” crusade for years now in Pittsburgh, which also loses playoff games in excruciatingly similar ways year after year. But while Harbaugh can say the same of his team, I simply don’t see it the same way that he’s got to go if they’re ever going to change.

At some point, the play is out of the coach’s hands, and players have to make the plays. Catch the ball, protect the ball, make the kick. Hold onto the fucking ball, as Lamar Jackson pointed out after the game, probably the most frustrating loss of his career after he had his best season in 2024.

https://twitter.com/big_business_/status/1881180079071601140

https://twitter.com/big_business_/status/1881180079071601140

I can already see the legacy talks for Lamar won’t be kind after this game even though it was clearly his best performance in a playoff loss. If he does indeed have a third MVP win this year, good luck ever getting nominated for a fourth. People are not going to take his regular seasons seriously until he puts together a great playoff run.

Maybe that’s fair too. But what’s not fair is to lump this 27-25 loss in Buffalo in with the past Baltimore playoff losses for Lamar.

Remember that stat about how he had his game with the fewest points that season in the playoffs all four times he’s gone? He broke that streak by putting up 25 in this game (lowest game was 16 points in Pittsburgh). Unfortunately, the Ravens were 13-0 when they scored 28+ this year and 0-6 when they didn’t. They needed 28+ again to win this game too and came up a little short.

But this game was still different. Usually, Jackson loses a low-scoring game and wire-to-wire in the playoffs. This time, he led an opening touchdown drive, making some big plays on third downs and making it look easy. But Buffalo was able to answer with its own opening drive touchdown to tie it at 7.

Jackson’s next pass was intercepted on either a poor read or a ball that just got away from him. Uh-oh, here comes the narrative. He can’t handle the playoffs and this was the coldest game of his career. But the Bills punted from there, so it didn’t really harm things.

The next drive was the significant one with the Ravens driving into Buffalo territory in a 7-7 game. It always hurts when you compound mistakes in the playoffs, and the Ravens did that here. Mark Andrews dropped a pass that should have set up a 2nd-and-short, then a bad snap was high to Jackson, he tried to make too much happen on the play instead of settling for a sack and third-and-long, and he fumbled it. The Bills returned it to the Baltimore 24 and set themselves up for another one of those short touchdown drives with Josh Allen scoring from 1 yard out to go up 14-7.

Just like that, Lamar had two quick turnovers, something he hadn’t done all regular season, and the playoff choke narrative was writing itself nicely. But there was a drop and bad snap that directly preceded that mistake. He wasn’t alone there.

We used to show grace to people who made up for their mistakes, but that seems to have gone out the window in today’s society. If you look at how Jackson finished the game from there, he played great and did his job. Throw in an opening-drive touchdown, and it’s really those two plays with the turnovers that were his biggest flaws on the night.

In the past, Lamar would have just crumbled from there. This time, he made plays and strung together drives, but they still didn’t all result in touchdowns because the running game had some letdowns. I’m not sure why they didn’t pound Henry more when they had 1st-and-goal at the 2. They were stuffed, then tried throwing twice before settling for a field goal and 14-10 deficit.

Buffalo used most of the final 3:43 in the half to score a touchdown, but the drive was not without controversy. On a 3rd-and-5, Allen threw incomplete for rookie Keon Coleman, who drew a defensive pass interference flag against former Bill Tre’Davious White. The call was bullshit. That’s either OPI or preferably no flag at all since they were both engaged with each other. Just a terrible call that led to the Bills scoring another 4-yard touchdown run by Allen to take a 21-10 lead into the half.

https://twitter.com/GeneSteratore/status/1881143728703979919

https://twitter.com/GeneSteratore/status/1881143728703979919

Again, this is the spot where you expect Lamar to crumble, but it did not happen this time. It helped that the Bills punted twice in the third quarter after a couple of ineffective drives. Frankly, I have no idea what the plan was for Buffalo’s passing game. They ran a chickenshit, dink-and-dunk style passing game where Allen got the ball out the fastest he has all season, but it only kind of worked because the running game was solid with America getting a chance to see how impressive this line and trio of backs has been.

But it took Allen a long time to even break 100 passing yards, and he only finished the game with 127 passing yards and 20 rushing yards on a quiet night.

Once Henry broke through with a touchdown run on his best drive of the night by far (he finished with 84 rushing yards), the Ravens went for two. I always say they’re terrible at these, and they didn’t prove me wrong as they love throwing on them. Jackson’s pass was incomplete and the Ravens still trailed 21-19. I didn’t think it was too early to go for it there.

The Bills settled for a 51-yard field goal to make it 24-19. This was looking a lot like their playoff game in this round last year against the Chiefs with Allen mixing a good running game and the dink and dunk to have a fourth-quarter lead at home. But Jackson had his shot to go up 27-24, the same score the Chiefs won that game by last year.

It was going well until Andrews decided to try getting YAC at midfield, only for him to have the ball punched out on a huge fumble. Just the second lost fumble of his career too. He usually doesn’t try to move like that in the open field, and it was a big turning point.

The Bills turned that into points but not before a huge decision on 4th-and-2 at the Baltimore 2 with 3:31 left:

  • Do you try to go for the touchdown and 31-19 lead, putting it basically out of reach with a 2-touchdown lead and the Ravens down to one timeout?
  • Do you go for the short field goal and take a 27-19 lead, feeling comfortable that the Ravens will blow another 2PC?
  • Do you risk not getting it, and leaving yourself open to the Ravens driving for the go-ahead touchdown?

In the end, I think Sean McDermott made the right call of a field goal just because of how sure I am about Baltimore screwing up those 2PC plays. With Henry on the sideline, without Zay Flowers all game, Jackson faced his legacy drive.

I thought he did a good job with it, and maybe scoring so quickly (1:33 left) was an issue as Buffalo would have plenty of time to go get the winning score. But you’re going to take the score when it’s open, and Jackson found Isaiah Likely for the 24-yard touchdown.

But what do they do on the 2-point conversion? They’re now 2-for-9 on these in the fourth quarter when trailing with Lamar at quarterback. I even have a tweet from 2021 talking about how they go to Mark Andrews way too much in these situations and don’t connect.

https://twitter.com/ScottKacsmar/status/1473398508220825600

Sure enough, it happened again. I even screamed “Andrews!” at the TV as I saw he was open on the right side, and the pass was thrown to him again. I thought the pass was good enough and should have been caught by a Pro Bowler, but he just flat out dropped it, solidifying his spot as the biggest choker at his position as he still hasn’t scored a touchdown in the postseason. Couldn’t even catch this game-tying play right in his hands.

https://twitter.com/SharpFootball/status/1881168053033160798

That was it. The Bills recovered the onside kick and ran out the clock for a 27-25 win. The Ravens couldn’t overcome their minus-3 turnover margin on the road even though the tie was right there. Like Buffalo last year against Kansas City, it may have just ended in a 30-27 loss to a last second field goal, but you never know.

And you’ll never know when you make mistakes like that drop. Andrews should definitely get the brunt of the blame with his late-game mistakes. There’s just no margin for error left when you do that so late in the game to kill multiple drives.

The Bills had a 34-yard pass play on their third snap from scrimmage, then never had a play gain more than 17 yards the rest of the night. They sat back and pounced on Baltimore’s mistakes, getting the fortunate fumble and great field position from Lamar’s fumble on a bad snap, getting the bogus DPI call before halftime for an additional 4 points, and adding the insurance field goal after Andrews’ fumble that they forced with the punch-out. That was enough for the win this time.

The Ravens were kind of built to self-destruct at some point, but it’s still stunning to see that Jackson and Andrews would make these mistakes again in the biggest game of the year. It was Jackson early and Andrews late.

But the other stat that caught my attention, and maybe this is the way to bring it full circle and lay some responsibility on Harbaugh, is the lack of takeaways by the Ravens’ defense in the postseason.

Remember last year when Baltimore had the defensive triple crown? No. 1 in points allowed, sacks, and takeaways? Well, that great defense didn’t force a single takeaway in either playoff game against the Texans or Chiefs. That doesn’t mean they didn’t play well enough to win both games, but they didn’t get the takeaways that make it easier to do so like Buffalo’s been getting all year. The Bills are somehow now +16 in fumble recoveries and +27 in turnover margin this year – absurd numbers. They just set the modern NFL record with 21 straight games without losing the turnover battle.

https://twitter.com/ScottKacsmar/status/1881273588407550258

Meanwhile, the Ravens have tied the NFL record by going four straight playoff games without a takeaway. Their last came in the 2022 AFC wild card in Cincinnati, the game started by Tyler Huntley for an injured Lamar, who hasn’t seen a takeaway in a playoff game since 2020 in Tennessee. That’s five straight playoff starts for Lamar where his defense didn’t get a turnover, which would be the longest streak in NFL history.

It’s still the ultimate team game. Baltimore’s lack of playoff success in the Jackson era has never been about only him, but he has been the central figure as the quarterback who has played well below his standards in those games.

But this game was something different. He had his mistakes, but so do many quarterbacks in big playoff games, including everyone from Joe Montana to Tom Brady to Patrick Mahomes. I don’t remember when perfection was ever the requirement to win these games.

But when your star tight end turns into whatever you want to call Andrews’ performance, and your defense doesn’t get any takeaways or create a real swing of momentum, then you’re left with coming up short like this.

I can understand why Jackson sounded extra frustrated in the post-game, and even if he was truly talking about his own turnovers, I can forgive him if he had Andrews first in mind after everything that happened this season from Likely’s toe on opening night to Kyle Hamilton’s dropped interception in Cleveland to Justin Tucker’s awful game against the Eagles to now this loss in Buffalo.

At least we know damn well that the Ravens would have choked on the 2PC in Kansas City if they went for it opening night. I said it then. But if I knew in 2021 that they were throwing too many passes in general and way too many to Andrews in these clutch 2PC moments, why don’t they know that in 2025?

Jackson is making progress in the playoffs with three pretty solid games in his last four tries. His QBR (85.8) was higher in this game than Allen’s (71.1), and yes, he even beat him in the precious EPA stat.

But is Andrews making progress in big games? No. Is the defense coming up with the kind of clutch takeaways that drove teams like the Commanders, Eagles, and Bills to wins this weekend? Nope.

At least the Ravens didn’t panic after going down 21-10 this time, but their progress in the playoffs is slow moving. Bad enough to change coaches? I’m not sure. I just know someone is always screwing up in Baltimore save for 2012, and even that year was saved by Rahim Moore taking the worst angle possible on the touchdown to Jacoby Jones (RIP) in Denver.

Had that gone like every other Baltimore postseason, I don’t think I’d be talking about Harbaugh coaching this team right now. He’d have been let go many years ago.

But the Ravens have just completed one of the most dominant 7-year runs (2018-24) in NFL history without a single Super Bowl appearance to show for it. Even the 1979 Rams got there with Vince Ferragamo at quarterback. The closest thing to Baltimore might be Buffalo if that team loses next week too. Otherwise, it’s probably the 1999-2005 Colts as the closest comparison.

That team won the Super Bowl in 2006 after people wrote them off when they followed a 9-0 start with a 3-4 finish. They still had their albatross receiver (Marvin Harrison) weighing the offense down in the postseason, but they still produced enough points and the defense finally started producing turnovers.

Maybe Baltimore can do that in 2025, but it’s tough to keep coming back after finishing short like this. The competition isn’t going away either. It’s the same demons to slay, but Baltimore might have to look in house and fix some of their own demons first. Whether that means moving forward with Likely as TE1, a different coach, or trying to become more of a pass-first offense, they need to shake things up.

And no matter what you do, hold onto the fucking ball.

Commanders at Lions: Shock and Awe

I believed in Jayden Daniels enough to cover the spread and give Detroit a battle, but I sure as hell didn’t expect a 45-31 win to end Detroit’s dream season. He had that kind of “road virtuoso” performance that is so rare in the playoffs for a considerable underdog, and he did it as a rookie – granted, the best rookie QB to ever do it.

But for as shocking as the game was, it kind of made sense too. I just wrote the other day that Detroit’s fatal flaws are Jared Goff going goofy with turnovers and the defense having too many injuries to survive a playoff run against these non-Sam Darnold-led offenses.

Sure enough, both things did them in. Goff turned it over three times in the first half, then one more for good measure at the end with the game basically out of reach. The Lions also did themselves no favors when they threw a pick on a trick play in a 38-28 game in the fourth quarter with Jameson Williams making a bonehead throw. Maybe burn that one, Ben Johnson.

But I think the clear turning point was in the second quarter. You have this fun offensive game going on. Terry McLaurin just took a pass 58 yards to the end zone for a 17-14 lead. You think Detroit is going to answer, then bang, Goff throws a bad pick-six, he gets absolutely destroyed by a cheap shot to the face on the return. That should have been a penalty to negate the touchdown and make Washington earn it on offense. Instead, they get nothing in their favor and Goff leaves the game momentarily.

That’s what started the Lions chasing a 10-point deficit the rest of the night. You like to think you can get one score before halftime, but Goff threw another pick. Then when you think you have some answers in the fourth quarter, you leave 12 men on the field defensively on a 4th-and-2, and the Commanders convert one that way in embarrassing fashion for Dan Campbell’s staff.

Then the Williams pick disaster happened, and just like that, it’s 45-28 with half a quarter to go and your season is essentially over. You can’t make up that turnover deficit against such a hot offense that played mistake free football. Daniels diagnosed the blitz so well, he didn’t take any sacks, no turnovers, and they were 3-of-4 on fourth down (not including the 12 men penalty).

It’s crazy to think the Lions were closer to winning last year’s Super Bowl than this one. I made sure not to blame Goff or Campbell’s decision making for last year’s blown lead in San Francisco in the title game. That was more about the Josh Reynold drops, the Gibbs fumble, and the deflected pass to Aiyuk that could have been picked. But this time around? Yeah, Goff shit the bed and that defense just didn’t have any answers for Daniels and company outside of a poorly run sneak by Marcus Mariota on the opening drive.

Just spectacular stuff from Washington, the only road team to win this postseason. They have one more tough task left, but why shouldn’t the best rookie quarterback ever become the first to start a Super Bowl? That’d be a hell of a story.

It also puts to shame these teams who talk about multi-year rebuilding plans and act like you need so many years to get competitive. This team won 4 games last year, hired a retread in Dan Quinn, a retread OC in Kliff Kingsbury, signed cast-off veterans like Zach Ertz and Austin Ekeler, and it’s all working because they found the right quarterback in Daniels. How can you not be impressed?

As for Detroit, it looks quite possible 2023 was their window to get it done. Beat the 49ers, and they would have had their shot at upsetting the Chiefs without great weapons on KC’s side that year and a head-to-head win to start that season in Arrowhead. The Lions aren’t going to fall off in 2025 most likely, but you wonder if they lose Johnson, what happens to the offensive creativity, and is Goff someone you can trust to go the distance in the playoffs? The defense should be healthier, but I question even if they had Aidan Hutchinson if they still have enough stars to be a championship unit on that side of the ball.

https://twitter.com/ScottKacsmar/status/1880907234705567754

But I genuinely feel bad for Detroit fans because I thought this was going to be their year. Their aggressive calls on fourth down could have been quite the show against the Chiefs in the Super Bowl if the No. 1 seeds met. Now, maybe Washington can be that team with a true gamer and demon at quarterback in Daniels.

Rams at Eagles: Saquon the Snow Angel

My expectations for this game were low since I didn’t think the Rams had the offense to keep up if the Eagles were going to throw it more, and I expected another big game from Saquon Barkley.

But it turned out to be a good game in the snow thanks to the Rams showing Monday night wasn’t a fluke as they sacked Jalen Hurts seven times, including a couple of drives where they knocked him out of field goal range. They also recorded a safety on a sack where Hurts seemed to have no interest in trying to avoid it just minutes after a bad looking play on his knee on another sack. Maybe he needed some more time but his movement wasn’t great the rest of the game.

That kept the Rams alive, and so did a couple of missed extra points from Jake Elliott. But it’s really a miracle the Rams were 13 yards away from winning this game in the closing seconds when you consider their two lost fumbles in the second half, then giving up three touchdown runs of 40-plus yards in the game. Saquon again gashed them twice for 60+ yard scores, including what should have been the clincher from 78 yards out with 4:36 left.

But that missed extra point made it interesting at 28-15. Matthew Stafford finally started hitting some passes in succession in the no huddle, the Rams managed the clock well to get the first touchdown, and the defense stood tall on the three-and-out after sacking Hurts on an ill-advised second-down pass call.

Stafford had 2:23 left to drive 82 yards for the win, which would have been such a shocker after Barkley’s long run. The drive was going pretty well, but then the Rams had a huge false start, then picked the worst time to let Jalen Carter to crash in for a sack that brought up 4th-and-11. Stafford’s pass really wasn’t even close to Puka Nacua on the sideline and the game was over.

The Eagles had 184 rushing yards on their three big touchdown runs, and just 65 net passing yards to go with it because of the sacks. I thought A.J. Brown would step up after last week’s game, or that DeVonta Smith would be a big factor after he missed the Week 12 game. But they had 6 catches for 35 yards combined in this game.

Throw in Hurts sounding like he was high on pain medication at the end of the game and uncertain about next week, and it’s not the greatest look for next Sunday against the Commanders, who are rolling with confidence right now.

Don’t go penciling that Chiefs-Eagles rematch in by any means. It probably should happen just based on the general strength of these teams and home-field advantage, but they rarely make it look easy.

They still win though. But that was a solid effort from the Rams in weather they’re not used to playing games in.

Texans at Chiefs: When You’re Rusty and Still Win Wire-to-Wire

The Chiefs have broken the brains of so many people that I’m not sure what they’ll do if this team manages to win two more games this season. Even in a game where the Chiefs came out a bit rusty after 24 days since Christmas, they still never trailed, they found ways to make Travis Kelce look like his vintage self, and they put away the Texans with eight sacks and blocked another 35-yard field goal for good measure to the naysayers.

Were the Texans outplaying them early despite the scoreboard? Yeah, I said as much, and if you ignore dreadful special teams. But that all changed halfway through the second quarter. After Hollywood Brown dropped a perfect deep ball, Travis Kelce was left wide open over the middle where he actually made a YAC play for the longest playoff catch of his career (49 yards). The Chiefs finished that drive for a touchdown and led 13-3.

Even after that moment, the Chiefs still outscored the Texans 10-9 before intentionally taking a safety in the final seconds. The game never really felt in doubt, but that won’t stop ESPN from acting like it was a travesty the Texans lost another divisional round game. From Troy Aikman having a fit in the booth about the penalties to graphics like this after the game, they’re really trying to sell it hard that a team who lost wire-to-wire was the better team and something unnatural must have caused this loss:

https://twitter.com/ScottKacsmar/status/1880882765803270549

Yeah, it’s called the Texans played poorly, and the Chiefs took advantage of it.

On Sunday, the NFL supported both the roughing the passer call and late hit on Mahomes’ late slide. Don’t say the NFL never admits to errors, because I have a list of such times they did coming up this week. You may not like the dynamics of those calls with the late slide an issue, but they said any time you go to the head and neck area, it’s likely going to get a call that wouldn’t be changed even if replay assist looked at it.

Also, I can’t believe people are going to pretend like the Chiefs couldn’t overcome a 2nd-and-6, which would have been the situation after the Mahomes scramble without the 15-yard flag. Did the refs give up that touchdown on 3rd-and-goal from the 11 too? A perfect pass to Kelce while falling down to make it 20-12 in the fourth quarter.

Did the officials cause C.J. Stroud to go 1-of-8 in success rate while trailing 20-12 in the fourth quarter? He did that. The Chiefs tackled him cleanly on the opening drive that made him limp, and while he still had some good scrambles in this game, by the end of it he couldn’t move well, Steve Spagnuolo smelled blood in the water, and they racked up four of their eight sacks on one drive.

Then there’s the piss-poor special teams. You could see it on the opening snap when the Chiefs had a 63-yard return, fumbled it, but Houston failed to recover. Then the idiot (Kris Boyd) who forced the fumble threw his helmet off for a 15-yard flag, then had the nerve to go shove his position coach on the sideline.

If that wasn’t enough, the kicker Fairbairn missed an extra point, badly missed a 55-yard field goal they probably shouldn’t have attempted in the cold, and had his 35-yard kick blocked just so the Chiefs can show Denver was no fluke. That’s a 10-point swing on special teams alone, and with the Chiefs getting some good field position on several drives, that helped build up a yardage disparity.

But the other disingenuous part of that 49-0 graphic is the “outgained by 100 yards” stat of it. The Chiefs were outgained by 124 yards (336-212), but they lost 27 yards intentionally on the last drive with a couple of kneeldowns and an intentional safety. Otherwise, they wouldn’t have been outgained by 100 yards and the stat wouldn’t exist. The safety might not have been 100% necessary but the strategy was to avoid a blocked punt return touchdown, the most harmful outcome that could have happened to the Chiefs at that stage of the game.

But I’m really annoyed about hearing about officials when the Texans played this poorly. Both defenders were clearly headhunting too on the play where Mahomes gave himself up and they could have just tagged him down. They took each other out on a head-to-head hit anyway, the same team that knocked out Trevor Lawrence with a nasty concussion this season. Maybe your team just has a target on its back from these plays, Houston.

I don’t see how the ref made DeMeco Ryans delay a decision to go for a fourth-and-10, fail to call timeout, then lose a bunch of yards on a sack. Houston played poorly. Even their 82-yard touchdown drive had to gain 101 yards of offense because they kept shooting themselves in the foot with penalties. It was that inefficient of a performance in turning yards into points.

There are things I’d like to see the Chiefs do better. You’re probably not beating Buffalo with 23 points or 0 catches from Hollywood and DeAndre Hopkins. The designed plays to Worthy felt too gimmicky and not the best use of his emerging talent. The lack of go for the kill shots in Houston territory were alarming from Andy Reid, who seems to get off by keeping the game within one score.

But the Texans did not even come close to deserving to win this game. The Chiefs took advantage of their mistakes and that’s why they’re moving on to host another AFC Championship Game, their seventh appearance in a row.

Next week: Huge rematches on Championship Sunday and so much history at stake. You’re God damn right I want the rookie QB vs. the three-peat in the Super Bowl, but that could be the least likely outcome we get from this final four. The Chiefs will have to overcome their last loss with starters against Buffalo, and the Eagles have to overcome their only loss in their last 15 games against the Commanders. That’s good stuff.

NFL 2024 Divisional Round Predictions: The “Oh Fvck, It’s Finally Here” Edition

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

It’s been a pretty long week building up to my favorite NFL week of the year. After a lackluster Wild Card Weekend, I’m ready for some real drama and memorable moments that I think this round, short of a classic Super Bowl, provides the best.

Do we get it? That’s hard to say. I think these four games have a lot of potential for volatility to them.

  • Are the Chiefs rusty as hell with this 24-day window since playing the Steelers, or do they look sharp and easily get past a Houston team that flopped 34-10 in this spot a year ago after one decent half in Baltimore?
  • Does Jayden Daniels only grow his legend in Detroit in a close game, or is this payback for 1991 NFC-CG (41-10 win by Washington) and another rookie QB gets routed on the road in the playoffs by a +222 scoring differential juggernaut? I do like that it’s indoors given this week is cold as fvck and that’s probably going to hamper the other games.
  • Do Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry just run wild over the Rams and Bills again, or will Jalen Hurts and Lamar Jackson actually need to throw the ball for more than 150 yards this week? And can Jackson do it in the cold without his best wide receiver (Zay Flowers)?

All I know is home teams were 5-1 last week. The team who won the previous game was 3-1 in rematches. Only one losing team scored more than 14 points. Washington was the team that broke through for all three stats. Let’s see what happens this time around.

This Week’s Articles

NFL Divisional Round Predictions

At least we’ll get my main rooting interest this weekend out of the way first.

Texans at Chiefs (-8.5)

The Chiefs win a playoff game by more than one possession? Surely you jest. But I am nervous about this one, just because it’d be a devastating blow to see the three-peat end with this opponent in the divisional round. Losing next week to either team is whatever. It’s logical. This would even be logical if the Texans had Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell, but instead they’re limping in with only Nico Collins and JAGS while hoping the defense gets a bunch of takeaways. Let’s not forget how bad Houston looked in the first half last week, which says a lot about how bad the Chargers were.

But it’s the rust thing too. 24 days off for starters is historic. I think people are reading this as a criticism of Patrick Mahomes too, but it’s not even about that. I trust him more than anyone on the Chiefs to show up. But what if it is a slow start on both sides of the ball, and you see the Chiefs get into trouble the way they did against Houston in the 2019 AFC-D when they fell behind 24-0? That’s dropped passes, a blown coverage TD on defense, a special teams mistake, etc. — All things this team is clearly capable of doing in 2024 too.

What they’re not capable of doing in 2024 anymore is coming back from a 24-0 deficit in the blink of an eye. They’ve been too methodical on offense and don’t have the big runs and YAC plays to get it done like that anymore. The Chiefs are also riding a record-tying streak of 7 games without a turnover, so that could snap in this game but they better just hope it’s not multiple turnovers or that they lose the battle there by multiple turnovers. Defense can contribute too.

But yeah, I could see someone like Jaylen Watson taking a misstep or missing an assignment in his first game since October. He has the best excuse to be rusty for the Chiefs in this game.

The Chiefs losing this game would plague hell on my mentions this weekend. But for the people talking about point differential, let’s not forget the Texans are 372 points scored, 372 points allowed this season. That’s not an impressive team. C.J. Stroud has yet to win a playoff game where his defense/ST allowed more than a net 3 points.

I think the Chiefs are playing with fire in a way that isn’t really their fault because of scheduling, getting the No. 1 seed, and injuries to key players. But working in a new LT (Humphries or Tuney) and WRs (Hollywood) this late in the year against a good pass rush isn’t the greatest. Of course, Week 16 happened too, and that’s why I’m not that concerned.

Just survive the first half and the Chiefs should be fine. But no, I’m not picking them to cover. This is the Kansas City special. They don’t cover but they still win.

Final: Chiefs 24, Texans 17

Commanders at Lions (-9.5)

Pretty cool to see the only two teams in NFL history to have 3 games in a season with 0 punts/turnovers face each other in the playoffs. I hope it is a 4th-down fever dream from both sides with dazzling plays and second guessing all night — a game so weird that David Lynch is looking down and nodding in approval.

I like those stats that the Lions have failed to win by 10 points in 8-of-9 games where they allowed 20 points and also in games where they turn it over once. I think Washington can achieve both of those things in this game, especially the scoring since they’ve had at least 18 in every game.

But it’s tough for a rookie to win games like this, and Daniels already exceeded expectations last week. Still, I’m going with the same score I had last week, the same score the Commanders lost in Baltimore this year.

Final: Lions 30, Commanders 23

Rams at Eagles (-6.5)

Yeah, you’re not going to convince me this probably won’t be the worst game this weekend. I just don’t care for watching the Eagles most of the time, and that GB game last week is a pretty solid example for why. I wish they showed a little more care in throwing the ball, but maybe this game will get it from them.

But I expect Saquon Barkley to do well without the 70-yard touchdown runs this time. You just can’t stop that line from dominating right now. Then you have an LA team on the road that hasn’t topped 20 offensive points in any of Stafford’s last 4 starts. He’s become so dependent on Puka Nacua. They haven’t scored much on the Eagles the last two years. I have very low hopes for the Rams in this one, but I do think McVay is a better coach than Sirianni, and that defense has been playing very well in the last month. You never know.

Final: Eagles 23, Rams 14

Ravens at Bills (+1.5)

I see we’re already doing that thing where “Lamar should win as the favorite” in a game where the spread has gone from Buffalo -1 to Ravens -1.5, which is still tiny as these teams are so close this year they even have the same scoring differential (+157).

More than Half of my 6,000-word AFC preview was spent on this game, so I’ve said a lot about it already.. But my main takeaway has been this:

I said it before the season that the Ravens bomb in the playoffs because they try to be the offense they aren’t with throwing the ball and leaning on Lamar to do everything. They can’t do that in this game, especially with Zay Flowers out. I think if the Ravens play bully ball and stick with the run and 2-TE formations and Lamar does very well as a dual-threat, then the Ravens have a very good chance of winning this game. Their D has been the best at limiting points in the second half of the season and they already held Buffalo to a season-low 10 points.

But do I trust the Ravens to do that if they fall behind 7 or 10 points? Will they just panic again and abandon Henry and lead Lamar into trouble in what could be the coldest game of his career? This guy is dressed like Ralphie in A Christmas Story in Houston weather. He’s going to be freezing in Buffalo.

If the game was in Baltimore, I don’t think I’d be questioning it as much. But I’m more in the camp that I need to see this team do something differently in a game like this before I believe fully in them to pull it off. So yeah, I’m probably in that mindset that if the Ravens win this game, they’ll beat the Chiefs next week as I said after Week 1 they’ll feel good for the rematch. And if it’s Houston, then hell yeah they’re going to the Super Bowl. Both of these teams will feel SB bound if that first game Saturday goes Houston’s way.

But that’s the thing. I don’t think this game is going to live up to the hype because of the weather and the fact that QB duels rarely pan out in the playoffs. It’s the defense. It’s the better OL/running game. It’s turnovers, which Buffalo better watch out for cause they are long overdue for some fumbles going against them. It’s rarely the QBs, and the four Jackson-Allen games to date haven’t been QB masterclasses at all.

Do the Ravens still win ugly games? Because they might have to here. Haven’t won a game without scoring 28 points this year, but it could happen here if the defense shows up against Allen. I don’t see the Ravens scoring 28 at all. The under 51.5 is one of my favorite picks this week, and if you’re betting on the Ravens to lose, you should probably consider under 16.5 alternate points (think it’s like +500) to keep in line with the “Lamar scores his season low in the playoffs” stat.

But I think it is a coin flip game. The Ravens are more battle tested. They kicked Buffalo’s ass already. They’re better built for this weather right now. But they just have to show us that they can adapt in a playoff game and handle the pressure on the road.

Also, I hope I’m wrong about this game. I hope it is a QB classic, but I just don’t see it living up to 2021 Allen-Mahomes in the divisional round. But the funny thing about that game is the legacy would be even greater if the Chiefs won the Super Bowl that year. They didn’t even get there, losing to the Bengals the following week.

And that’s my other point about this game. For the winner, don’t get too cocky. All this hype about the MVP and this game, it doesn’t mean a damn thing if your team just goes into Kansas City next week and loses again, putting that team one game away from a three-peat, the closest anyone’s ever been.

This is not the end, but it is for one of these teams.

Final: Bills 24, Ravens 20

2024 NFL Stat Oddity: Wild Card Weekend

~ Scott ~ 1 Comment

No matter what an NFL team does for 18 weeks, no matter how much work you put into reviewing their season and predicting their playoff fate, sometimes a pick parade happens, and you end up with the first 32-12 final in NFL history.

That goofy result in Houston, during their annual Bill O’Brien Saturday Afternoon Invitational, was a harbinger of the weekend to come with one-sided games won by the home team up until Sunday night when we finally got some drama courtesy of Jayden Daniels and the misadventures in snaps from the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

There’s still a Monday night game between the Vikings and Rams to come, but it wasn’t the most exciting wild card weekend. That’s for sure. The Commanders-Bucs game was the only one of the five games with a second-half lead change. The only one with a comeback opportunity. The only one where both teams scored more than 14 points.

But I guess a lot of the paper tigers and heavily flawed teams have been eliminated, so we’re still on track for a good divisional round.  

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Commanders at Buccaneers: The Best Rookie Quarterback Season Ever

When Jayden Daniels scored a garbage-time touchdown run in Tampa Bay in Week 1 to produce a 37-20 final, I loved it because it allowed me to hit an improbable SGP where I had Daniels and Mike Evans both scoring two touchdowns.

Little did I know that score would keep alive a streak where the Commanders have scored at least 18 points in all 18 games this season, the 12th team in NFL history to do that, and they have a chance to become just the third to do it in 19 games as their season will continue another week after winning yet another close game in Tampa Bay this time.

After that garbage-time touchdown run by Daniels in Week 1, he made some unique history against the Giants in Week 2 when he led his offense to 7 field goals on 7 drives, the only game in NFL history like that. But Week 3 in Cincinnati was the game where I was truly sold on the kid after he put up 38 points on six drives, scoring every time he had the ball. Then he scored his first two drives in Arizona, meaning 16 straight scoring drives when you exclude kneeldowns. No known streak in NFL history by one quarterback exceeds that.

Then even when Daniels lost a game in Baltimore against a contender, I was still impressed with the way he handled himself, throwing for 269 yards, 2 touchdowns, and he led his team in rushing with 22 yards that day as little help was provided. He had no turnovers.

Then the Hail Mary happened against Chicago, and while that’s a lucky play to get the tip, his ability to manufacture that drive, get it close enough, and extend the play long enough to pull that off was impressive. The rib injury may have slowed him down for a few weeks there, but after the bye week, he’s been very good and leading his team like a veteran with several more clutch game-winning drives like the efforts against the Eagles and Falcons.

I think Daniels had arguably the best regular season ever for a rookie quarterback when you consider he threw for 3,568 yards, 25 touchdowns, and rushed for 891 yards and 6 more scores to lead his team in rushing. That’s the kind of dual-threat season that only Lamar Jackson has pulled off this year, and at least he has Derrick Henry to help him out now. Daniels has often been the leading rusher in games for his team, and it happened again in his first playoff game.

But I think this road playoff win is also the cherry on top for giving him the edge over the likes of Ben Roethlisberger (2004), Dak Prescott (2016), and C.J. Stroud (2023) for the best rookie quarterback season ever.

Daniels just played a playoff game where his offense never punted and never turned the ball over, the kind of feat only Peyton Manning (2003 vs. Chiefs) and Josh Allen (2021 vs. Patriots) have achieved in the postseason. Granted, the Commanders turned it over on downs twice, but they also converted a few times that led to huge touchdowns that were the difference in the game.

There were only seven possessions for each team in this game, so mistakes were going to get magnified. Unfortunately for Baker Mayfield, a fumble is going to be the play people remember best from this game. The Bucs were up 17-13 and got the ball back after holding the Commanders on 4th-and-goal. I also mean literally holding as it sure looked like DPI should have been called on the Bucs for how they grabbed Zach Ertz in the end zone.

But right after Mike Evans made a great stretch effort to get a first down, the Bucs got cute with a little trickery in the backfield and the timing of the play was off, resulting in a fumbled snap that the Commaders recovered and used to go 13 yards for the go-ahead touchdown after Daniels found Terry McLaurin on a 4th-and-2.

What a crushing play and I really don’t think they needed to do something like that. I’m not sure if the plan was to hand it off or fake the handoff, but they screwed it up. Then with the chance to take the lead, the Bucs screwed that up too with Baker getting stopped on a run, setting up a 3rd-and-1 where the center’s snap timing was off, resulting in a 2-yard loss. Another snap disaster for the Bucs.

With 4:45 left, I can understand the rationale from Todd Bowles for the game-tying field goal on 4th-and-3 at the 14. You like to think you’ll get the ball back with four clock stoppages left. I don’t hate the decision to kick it, but maybe we have to start recognizing Daniels in that Patrick Mahomes kind of light as someone you simply don’t want to have the ball last.

Sure enough, Daniels was able to burn the last 4:41 while putting his team in range for an easy field goal. He used his arms and legs to get the job done. I don’t think Bowles made the best use of his timeouts either. It was going to be a 37-yard field goal by Washington as the final play of regulation, so barely longer than an extra point.

But when they showed this clip of kicker Zane Gonzalez constantly rubbing his hair as some sort of pre-kick ritual, I thought for sure this goofy MFer was going to blow the kick.

The truth is he kind of did, because the kick hit the upright only to get the favorable bounce through to send the Commanders to the divisional round for the first time since the 2005 season and to send the Buccaneers home after a crushing home loss.

Tampa will be stewing all offseason over some of those decisions like the fumbled snaps and kicking the field goal. As for Washington, this is what happens when you find the right quarterback in the draft. Daniels had a historic playoff debut, because the history of rookie quarterbacks on the road in the postseason is brutal.

In nearly 30 chances from all rookies in NFL history, Daniels joins just Sammy Baugh (the original Washington legend) from 1937 as the only rookies to win on the road while throwing for 200 yards, while throwing more than one touchdown pass, and while beating a team that actually scored more than 14 points as most rookies who in (Mark Sanchez/Joe Flacco variety) on the road in the playoffs do it on the back of a dominant defense. That’s not a multi-stat qualifier. Those are three different things where he joins Baugh as the only quarterbacks to do, and they did them all in the same game.

Daniels is “just built different” as they say these days. Washington will have its shot to shock the Lions in Detroit next.

Packers at Eagles: I Like Detroit Even More for the Super Bowl

This was the only game I predicted to be decided by double digits this weekend. I had the Eagles winning by 11 and they won by 12, so close enough. But what a terrible game to watch, and it was bad from the start when the Packers fumbled the opening kickoff. They definitely fumbled, but in a rare case, we had a close-up shot of the players fighting for the ball and what looked like a pretty decent recovery effort by the Packers to get it back:

At what point can you say the play is long over, the Packer has the ball, and is down by contact? I think that was a garbage call to say “the play stands” and give the Eagles the ball there. That was a huge call too as the Eagles needed that short field (28 yards) to get their early touchdown, because the offense was not good.

I don’t know if it was the concussion or what had Jalen Hurts out of sorts, but he was 6/13 for 39 yards at halftime despite the Eagles feeding him three turnovers from the Packers. Unfortunately, Jordan Love and the Packers couldn’t take advantage of that slow start from the passing game for Philly that saw A.J. Brown catch one ball for 10 yards and get some reading in on the sideline.

Injuries also hurt the Packers dearly as they lost multiple offensive linemen and wide receivers in this game after Christian Watson already tore his ACL last week. That’s how you end up with Bo Melton and “Malik Heath” as the targets on some of your most important plays of the season. I was waiting for Jeff Janis to show up.

In the second half, every slight answer by the Packers was met by the Eagles. A Green Bay field goal to make it 10-3 was met immediately by Dallas Goedert going off for a 24-yard touchdown that included three stiff arms of the same defender (Carrington Valentine), who might need to change his name now to avoid the shame of that highlight for Goedert.

Josh Jacobs played hard in his playoff debut for the Packers and ran hard for a great run to set up a touchdown that made it 16-10 with nearly a whole quarter to play. But instead of the defense stepping up, it let the Eagles burn half the quarter with one Tush Push along the way for a field goal that made it 19-10.

Love didn’t play well at all, but I thought his 4th-and-3 pass would have been a routine catch by a player like Romeo Doubs or Jayden Reed if they were healthy and in the game instead of Heath, who landed out of bounds with 5:03 left to end the last real threat. The Packers also were undisciplined and picked up a few silly 15-yard flags for late hits on Saquon Barkley, who was fine with a 100-yard game he only clinched in garbage time with the game wrapped up.

Actually, Love’s interception in the end zone at the 2-minute warning was some pretty blatant DPI on the Eagles, and that should have set up a first-and-goal at the 1. But the Packers already felt so defeated in a 22-10 game where they were down to one timeout that no one seemed to mind the missed call.

The Packers (11-7) finish this season getting swept by the Lions, Vikings, and Eagles as they just couldn’t beat the elite teams they were able to defeat in 2023. That’s a good formula for a one-and-done season as the No. 7 seed.

I guess we should assume the Eagles will play better than this in the rest of the playoffs, but if I’m Detroit, I don’t fear this team one bit. Not after this game.

Broncos at Bills: Sean Payton, You Tease

If you told me the Broncos wouldn’t score another point after their opening drive, I wouldn’t have believed it. Bo Nix was abandoned again by his running game, put in terrible situations all day by Sean Payton’s offense, and yet he still delivered a third-and-8 conversion and a beautiful 43-yard touchdown strike to Tony Franklin to start the game.

Maybe that should have been a warning sign that this wouldn’t be sustainable offense, but I thought it was an incredible start that showed Nix is ready for the big moment. Unfortunately, the Broncos wasted their fake punt by not going anywhere after it, then they had the loudest field goal miss I ever heard before halftime that should have made it 10-10, a spot they had to feel very comfortable with given the way their defense was getting shredded by Buffalo’s ground game and great offensive line.

But I think the game was largely lost for Denver in the second and third quarters between the weak play calls on early downs where Payton was trying to protect Nix by only making his job harder in having to convert third-and-longs.

In the third quarter, Denver went three-and-out twice with Nix only getting to drop back on third down when he needed 5 and 11 yards. That’s rubbish, and his receivers could have been better with their hands after some big drops in the game.

But the crucial drive came when Buffalo was up 13-7 in the third. Josh Allen threw a hospital ball to running back Ray Davis, which led him to a big hit that knocked him out of the game. That should have brought up third-and-13, but instead it is an automatic first down because of the flag for unnecessary roughness. The NFL made this switch years ago, and I still hate it every single time and say it shouldn’t be a penalty. The flag didn’t stop the hit, which only happened because of a terrible Allen throw that led his back right into contact.

The defender even pulled up and led with the shoulder, so he didn’t go for a helmet-to-helmet hit. I hate the way the offense gets these calls now. Later on that drive, the Bills faced a 4th-and-1. Allen scrambled for almost 7 seconds before throwing to the back of the end zone for Ty Johnson, another talented back in this offense who has done damage as a receiver. He somehow was able to keep his knee in bounds (or close enough on replay) before his foot touched out of bounds for a huge 24-yard touchdown.

I’ve said this is the difference in Buffalo this year and should share some of those numbers this week. Allen’s passes to targets in the backfield are having a huge impact since the Bills use these players down the field in mismatches. In fact, you’d be surprised how much production out of backfield targets goes to helping a quarterback win MVP. Those plays are a huge boost.

Then the Bills blew the game open on the first play of the fourth quarter when terrible tackling led to a 55-yard touchdown for Curtis Samuel to make it 28-7. Game over. The Bills held the ball for 41:43 as the Broncos couldn’t sustain offense and couldn’t slow down their running attack.

In the end, I think you have to say the Denver defense was a paper tiger this year. Patrick Surtain II might still win DPOY but not sure he had any real impact in this game. The Broncos had their worst games of the season defensively on the road against teams like the Bills, Chargers, Bengals, and Ravens, who all scored 30+. Even their 16-14 loss in Kansas City will go down as their sixth-worst game of the season in defensive EPA.

Tampa Bay was really the only qualify offense this defense slowed down this year, so that’s a disappointing way to end the season. But Payton needs to show more trust in Nix than he did in this game. He won’t be able to use the rookie excuse next time.

Steelers at Ravens: The Standard Continues

If I just started pasting in paragraphs from past articles about Pittsburgh playoff losses, would anyone even notice? They do the same thing every time, after all. This one from four years ago after they fell behind 28-0 to the Browns and lost has a lot of the same things I could go over for Saturday night’s 28-14 loss in Baltimore.

What really changed this time? Oh, there weren’t any turnovers in the game. I guess that’s an improvement on offense where they didn’t give up return scores or easy field position. Then again, I liked the fight the offense showed in some of those losses with Roethlisberger at quarterback instead of the pathetic no-show in the first half when they punted four times Saturday.

But let’s be clear. Russell Wilson was not the issue, and Justin Fields sure as hell wouldn’t have done any better in a game they were going to have to score a lot of points to win. The problem is Wilson has limitations and there’s no way you’re winning games like this with him at this stage of his career.

But the Steelers aren’t winning games like this with Mike Tomlin’s defense, which continues to be on the worst run in playoff history. That’s now six straight playoff games allowing 28+ points. No other team has more than four such games. That’s 230 points allowed in six playoff games, also a record.

The Steelers were 10-3 and ended this year with five straight wire-to-wire losses. That’s pathetic. They couldn’t even take a 3-0 lead in any of these games.

On Saturday night, they took their historically-bad playoff defense up against Lamar Jackson’s historically underperforming playoff offense, and Jackson won the matchup by halftime with a 21-0 lead and over 200 total yards from offense with his arm and legs. Derrick Henry also crucified them on the ground, and Lamar was making the Steelers look silly with the zone-read option, 2012’s trendiest offensive wrinkle in the NFL. T.J. Watt looked like he’s never defended it in his life, constantly crashing in on Henry while Lamar still had the ball. Amateur hour.

I’d say more, but what’s the point? It’s the same shit every year and nothing ever changes in Pittsburgh. It’s the worst form of NFL purgatory where you have no chance at a high draft pick, and you have no real shot to win a playoff game. Rinse and repeat. Best thing I can say is the fans were so uninterested in this game that even they weren’t taking the bait that this time would be any different.

If you start losing the fans, if you start being met with apathy, that should finally cause a shake-up with who is running this team. But until they fire Tomlin and find their next visionary coach, the standard is going to be the standard.

Chargers at Texans: Chargering Is Unstoppable

“It can’t be bargained with. It can’t be reasoned with. It doesn’t feel pity, or remorse, or fear. And it absolutely will not stop, ever, until you are dead.”

That’s Kyle Reese warning Chargers fans about the curse of Chargering placed on their team. I thought Jim Harbaugh would fix it, but even he couldn’t overcome it in a playoff loss that stands to be more embarrassing than the blown 27-0 lead in Jacksonville.

At least in Jacksonville, I can say the 27-0 lead was unearned, propped up by short fields from an absurd number of takeaways before the defense blew it by playing a terrible half, and a kicker missing a 40-yard field goal that should have been enough.

But this time? I never would have believed Justin Herbert would implode like this. Not after he came out dealing with a backup tight end snatching a pass for 15 yards on the opening drive. This was going to be a vintage Herbert game. Instead, it’s the game that’s going to keep him out of every top quarterback discussion until he proves he can perform in the playoffs.

Sure, there were flaws as the short-yardage running game was terrible, Quentin Johnston predictably failed to catch a single ball in his playoff debut, and the lack of polished receivers after Ladd McConkey (he was incredible) proved to be a disaster for the Chargers.

But a lot of this was on Herbert too. After C.J. Stroud threw a pick, Herbert immediately negated it by tossing his first, forcing a deep ball on the next snap. He threw just 3 interceptions all year, and while that was always likely to regress against a high-pressure, high-takeaway defense, you don’t expect him to throw the most interceptions of his pro football career in this game.

The crusher came late in the third quarter when Herbert’s pass for McConkey was too high and intercepted for a touchdown to put the Chargers behind 20-6. Then Will Dissly dropped and deflected a pass that should have been caught for Herbert’s third pick. That one wasn’t his fault, but a lot of damage had already been done. He added a fourth pick in garbage time when it was 32-12.

But what a disastrous game as the Texans were struggling to get things going for most of the half only to still find themselves leading 10-6 at halftime. That should have been the first sign this was going to go south for the Chargers. They watched Stroud get away with an intentional grounding penalty in the end zone for a probable safety, then a bad snap led to a big play that sparked that 99-yard touchdown drive.

Then they take away a pick from Derwin James in the third quarter in the end zone that leads to a Houston field goal. Not great. That all led up to the pick parade, but the pass rush also amped up on Herbert once the Texans had some confidence they were going to win this game. Herbert was creamed in the fourth quarter.

Even after an 86-yard touchdown to McConkey, the Chargers made history by having their extra point blocked, Dicker the Kicker knocked it down instead of recovering the live ball, and the Texans returned it for the first ever defensive 2-point return in NFL playoff history to make it 25-12. Yep, that’s Chargers BINGO at that point.

This is the worst loss for the Chargers since losing that AFC divisional round game to the Mark Sanchez-led Jets in 2009. It might even be worse than that since it’s a game that shows Herbert and Harbaugh aren’t above results like this, and the Chargers are still not ready to overtake the Chiefs in the AFC West.

It really puts the Chargers in a bad spot where their best hope is to be a wild card team that is prone to having a brutal loss in the first round. I just went over that with Pittsburgh, so I can tell you it’s not a fun spot to be in at all for a fan.

See it for enough years and you just lose interest. Apathy sets in. Hope is such a better product to sell fans, because for a franchise that’s never won a Super Bowl, all they know is hope and potential.

But right now, it’s hard to see what hope the Chargers have that doesn’t simply include Andy Reid and Travis Kelce deciding to retire in a month, Bo Nix being a fraud, the Raiders hiring another bum QB/coach duo, and finding Herbert another great receiver to pair with McConkey.

Even then, Chargering just feels inevitable for this team. You can’t escape it.

Next week: It’s my favorite playoff round, but that doesn’t always mean the games will be great. Hard to not top this week, though. You can expect research on playoff rest with the Chiefs having an extended break here before they face Houston. Commanders-Lions is a fresh matchup that should be great for the offenses on Saturday night. I think Vikings-Rams at Eagles has dud written all over it, but we’ll see. Then the most hyped game of the year to this point will be Ravens at Bills. Early prediction: It won’t be a QB-driven shootout. They almost never are when they’re hyped this way, but I have all weak to explain that one.

NFL 2024 Wild Card Predictions: Legacy Shaping Edition

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

We’ve made it to the NFL playoffs and I really like this wild card slate since I don’t think any game is close to a sure thing no matter what the spreads say. Every NFC game is a rematch and we have another AFC North game between the Steelers and Ravens that I think could change the trajectory of those franchises as the 2nd-biggest game in Steelers-Ravens history after the 2008 AFC Championship Game.

Friday also saw the AP release the All-Pro teams, and the big news was Lamar Jackson getting 30 votes to 18 for Josh Allen (2 for Joe Burrow) for the first-team All-Pro quarterback selection. Unless the AP wants to reverse decades of voting standards, that should mean that Jackson will win his third MVP.

Maybe common sense won out, but I’ll just add that this only increases the pressure on Lamar to perform Saturday night. You can’t be going one-and-done as a 9.5-point home favorite to a reeling Steelers team and expect to ever get another MVP nod or have your regular seasons taken seriously.

This Week’s Articles

NFL 2024 Wild Card Predictions

I guess in the past I used to do longer previews here, but since I’ve already covered all six games other places this week, I’m just ready to recap some last second thoughts and give my final score predictions here.

Chargers at Texans (+3)

Late-night thought: Remember when Alex Smith had the game of his life (299 yards, 3 TD) in his first playoff game under Jim Harbaugh against the 2011 Saints? Remember when Colin Kaepernick had the game of his life (263 passing yards, QB record 181 rushing yards) in his first playoff game under Harbaugh against the 2012 Packers? That’d be pretty cool if Justin Herbert put on a masterpiece performance for his first NFL playoff win under Harbaugh’s guidance this afternoon.

I think the potential is there if his tackles hold up against those talented edge rushers. If you block Houston, you can pick that defense apart, which is why I like Ladd McConkey to have a big game and score in his playoff debut.

Still, I think we might be underrating Houston in the sense that they shouldn’t be expected to get crushed 31-2 like they did against the Ravens on Christmas. Between that game and 34-7 in Minnesota, they’ve had those blowouts on their resume, but this team despite all the flaws has played the Packers, Chiefs, and Lions tough this year while also beating Buffalo.

Throw in the Chargers being cursed, and it wouldn’t shock me at all to see a one-score game late. The Chargers have looked very good down the stretch but the Texans aren’t the Patriots and Raiders, and the Texans also won in this spot last year against a favored Cleveland team while their receivers outside of Nico Collins were injured.

I think it’ll be a decent game and I’m still going to trust the Chargers to pull through and win it. I like that the Chargers have yet to allow more than 20 points on the road all season long, which is getting to be one of the longest streaks in modern NFL history. It’s also a much better story to write about next week if they get to face the Chiefs for a third time.

Final: Chargers 27, Texans 20

Steelers at Ravens (-9.5)

Like I said above, I think this game could really have a huge butterfly effect on where these franchises head next. The loser could very well be on the fast track to firing their long-time head coach. If the Ravens win, it could even propel them to a Super Bowl run (finally).

The Steelers have basically repeated the 2016 AFC Championship Game in every playoff game since, so I’m over this team being anywhere near competent this time of year. They come in on a 4-game losing streak, only the third NFL playoff team to do that, and it’s hard to see things getting better here. Their saving grace is past success against Baltimore, intimate knowledge of the Ravens, (third meeting since 11/17), Zay Flowers (knee) is out, and the defense has already held this offense to its worst game of 2024.

And then there’s the Lamar Jackson playoff effect. He has to turn that around this season, but the fact that he’s admitted to being too amped up for past games and that it’s in his head this week doesn’t give me the greatest hope that he’s going to get it done.

But losing this game would be the worst yet as the Ravens are playing much better football than the Steelers, they have the No. 1 defense since Week 11 again, and I can’t stress this enough: the Steelers have allowed 31+ points in 5 straight playoff games. No other team has done that in three games. The standard is the standard.

I’ll knock the scoring down a peg out of respect for the rivalry, but I think the line is spot on.

Final: Ravens 27, Steelers 17

Broncos at Bills (-8.5)

I already got into it with my multiple previews for this game about Buffalo’s turnover regression that should happen during the playoffs. They have just 8 giveaways all year and no one but Josh Allen has lost a fumble. They’re +14 in fumble recoveries, tied for the 2nd-best out of 798 teams since 2000. Turnovers (4 of them) are why they lost to Denver at home a year ago on a Monday night. It’s the easiest, most logical way for Denver to get the upset edge here.

But I also think Bo Nix has done a good job of scoring points down the stretch and I expect Denver to exploit some things in a Buffalo defense that relies on turnovers (again, regression there too) to get the job done.

At the end of the day, I still can’t pick the rookie quarterback on the No. 7 seed on the road in an early body clock game against an experienced playoff team. But if Skylar Thompson can lose a playoff game in Buffalo by 3 points, then I think Denver can do it too.

Final: Bills 27, Broncos 24

Packers at Eagles (-4.5)

It’s Tom Brady calling a game for FOX, so it’s going to be a boring rout, right? Or does he only do that for Dallas games? Either way, I’m not overly thrilled with this one because I think the Packers have disappointed in every big game this season, and they were my Super Bowl pick before the year, mind you. They already lost to the Eagles in Brazil on a poor field. I guess there’s some drama with how Jalen Hurts will look after a few weeks out with a concussion, but he has so much talent around him that I don’t think he has to be great to win here. Just don’t offer up all those turnover opportunities like in Week 1.

Jordan Love’s elbow might be a bigger question mark. I think that could bother him in challenging a very good coverage unit. I don’t think they can rely on Jacobs as reliably as the Eagles could with Saquon.

Final: Eagles 27, Packers 16

Commanders at Buccaneers (-3)

Another Week 1 rematch, I think it goes to Tampa Bay again as the Commanders don’t have enough defense to slow down the Bucs, and I think Jayden Daniels is going to end up leading his team in rushing again as a one-man show. It’s just really hard to win in the playoffs on the road with a rookie quarterback without an elite defense. But if anyone can make this a shootout and have a chance at the end, Daniels could make this interesting.

Final: Buccaneers 30, Commanders 23

Vikings at Rams (+2.5)

I like my standalone preview for this game that tells the story of why this should be different for Minnesota from Week 8, why I still want to trust Sam Darnold to figure it out, and why I am worried that Matthew Stafford has turned into a Puka Nacua merchant in the last month and isn’t putting up yards or points.

The game moving to Arizona because of the fires is the final piece for why I like the Vikings to get the win this time.

Final: Vikings 23, Rams 17

There was a lot of playoff research I didn’t get around to this week as I learned it’s just so much work to try recapping the regular season and preparing for six playoff games in 5 days. But I’m hoping to get to it in the coming weeks.

There will be a Part 5 of the LOAT series (Mahomes vs. Brady) during the playoffs. I think I might have to wait until after the divisional round to do it instead of this coming week though.

2024 NFL Stat Oddity: Week 18

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

The conclusion of Week 18 in the NFL means it’s time I reflect on my preseason predictions. Let’s just say I’m not feeling great at all about my Super Bowl pick (Packers over Chiefs), but at least the Packers and Texans, two teams I hyped up, are in the tournament. You never know.

But I seem to have continued my troubling pattern of being way off on my picks every other year. I was off by an average of 2.88 wins this season, my worst since I started tracking this in 2013.

2024 NFL Predictions

In my defense, I bet a lot of people were thrown by some of the 10-win teams this season as the Vikings (14-3), Commanders (12-5), and Broncos (10-7) all blew away expectations with rookie quarterbacks and a career year from Sam Darnold. I picked the Commanders and Vikings specifically to finish 4-13, so that accounts for a lot of the disparities.

Then I was also done in by some of the most disappointing teams this season like the 49ers and Jets, who both blew a lot of leads in games they should have won this year. They blew 10 leads between them with the Jets (6) leading the league in that category with a way too dramatic season with Aaron Rodgers getting people fired.

It ended up being a top-heavy season with seven teams winning 12+ games, including four teams winning 14+ games. Helping to balance things, we had 10 teams lose 12+ games, so there were a lot of poor teams too. That’s probably going to lead to a real balancing act in 2025 where more teams should move closer to .500, so it’ll be important not to overreact to some of these records.

As for Week 18, the early slate produced some unexpected close games, the late slate was devoid of any real drama, and Sunday night was a bummer because of Sam Darnold’s awful game. In all, we had 9 games with a comeback opportunity.

For the last time this season, let’s run through a recap of all 32 teams in their final game of 2024.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Vikings at Lions: The New Year’s Ghost

It took 18 weeks, 17 games, and the 272nd and final game of the regular season before the worst nightmare for Minnesota fans became reality. On the big stage with the No. 1 seed on the line, Sam Darnold was seeing ghosts and shitting his pants.

People are going to see a 31-9 final score and just chalk it up as a Detroit blowout, but this was Minnesota’s game for the taking well into the third quarter when it only trailed 10-9 despite so many missed opportunities. Red zone play was the main culprit as Darnold was just abysmal in that confined space, missing receivers left and right. The Lions challenged him with a good pass rush while playing man coverage, and he simply couldn’t beat it with so many balls overthrown and off the mark. Darnold finished 18-of-41 for 166 yards. No turnovers but failing three times on fourth down is just as bad, especially when multiple drives were inside the Detroit 3.

The Lions were already No. 1 in red zone EPA/pass allowed, and that number should only look better after this game. But what a shocker to see this game produce four touchdowns, and all four were scored by Jahmyr Gibbs for Detroit.

Matchups matter, and maybe the Vikings could come up with some better man-coverage beaters in a rematch should there be one. But I think this game changes a lot of the feelings about these teams going into the playoffs as the Lions may in fact have enough on defense to get the job done for the Super Bowl, and the Vikings might just end up going 14-4 with sweeps by the Lions and Rams (their next opponent).

I’ve been pro-Darnold this season and he’s been passing so many different tests. But given this was the biggest game of his career, I can’t say I’m confident about what he’ll do in the playoffs when the season truly is on the line. At least this was a trial run and he got a taste of the atmosphere, but that was brutal to watch all night.

Saints at Buccaneers: Baker’s Legs to the Rescue

One of the day’s most entertaining games was watching Tampa Bay struggle as a two-touchdown home favorite against Spencer Rattler and the Saints with a division title on the line. I always say division games are scary. But despite being an offensive juggernaut in many games this year, the Bucs were down 16-6 at halftime and 19-13 going into the fourth quarter.

But Baker Mayfield’s legs made up for a slow start to his passing. He ran 9 times for 68 yards in this game, including some huge plays in the fourth quarter to lead a comeback. He also got things going with Jalen McMillan, who had a huge catch on fourth down and a touchdown on a drive where he was wrongfully penalized for a finger-pointing celebration that had nothing to do with gun violence. Then Mike Evans started making plays as he needed 85 yards in the game to reach 1,000 yards for the 11th year in a row.

Meanwhile, the Saints added to their misery of not being able to make a single fourth-quarter comeback win for the second season in a row. They were 0-7 this year with four blown leads, and this was just another.

But Baker’s improv on a lateral to Bucky Irving for an 11-yard touchdown gave the Bucs a 27-19 lead with 1:51 left. The Saints turned it over on downs with 36 seconds left. The game was effectively over, but Evans needed 5 more yards to get his 1,000, which would trigger a $3M bonus. It was risky, but they threw a pass to him, and the Saints didn’t seem to mind letting him make the play as he picked up 9 yards and the whole team celebrated as the game was over, the bonus was his, and the NFC South belongs to Tampa Bay.

They would have won it anyway after Atlanta lost in overtime in Carolina, but this was a grind against a really bad New Orleans team that’s missing so many key players. We’ll see how the Bucs fare in a Week 1 rematch with the Commanders, but that might be a better matchup for them than the Vikings.

Bengals at Steelers: Close But No Cigar

Well, I guess the Bengals won the closest thing they’ll have to a playoff game this year as they came through in Pittsburgh in a 19-17 slugfest to reach 9-8. But they didn’t get the help they needed from the Chiefs-Broncos game on Sunday, so they are out. That’s also what happens when you lose 16-10 at home to the Patriots, one of the worst teams in football, in Week 1. September matters too and the Bengals dug too big of a hole to get out of.

But as for the team that is in the playoffs from this game, just what the hell are the Steelers doing to end this season? They’ve lost four games in a row and are playing terrible offense. Even though the start of this game looked like the defense was going to be a disaster, they calmed down and kept the Bengals out of the end zone all night after giving up that opening-drive touchdown. The special teams had a big mistake with a fumble, but they made up for it by recovering a fumble later.

This was on Arthur Smith’s offense. All the nice things I said when they lit up the Bengals in Cincinnati earlier this season, throw them out the window like they never happened. The Steelers sure seemed to forget they did.

Russell Wilson had 414 yards in that first game, taking advantage of YAC and passes to his running backs over the middle. That didn’t exist in this game. Jaylen Warren had 0 catches. Calvin Austin, someone who can catch some quick hitters, had 0 catches. George Pickens caught an early screen that was terrible, then didn’t catch his last five targets, including several awful drops in maybe the worst game I’ve ever seen a Pittsburgh wideout play. He finished with 0 yards and I’d put his chances of a second contract in Pittsburgh at 0.0001%.

For most of the half, Wilson had two completions: the ill-fated screen to Pickens and a brilliant 25-yard catch by Mike Williams. But guess what? Williams never received another target the rest of the game. How the fvck does this happen?

Then even when they had a chance to go get a game-winning field goal, Wilson, a veteran who has done this dozens of times, completely botched the last drive with horrible clock management. I can’t crucify him for the whole game because of the drops by Pickens and then the fourth-and-ballgame drop by Pat Freiermuth, but Wilson was terrible for most of the game. Get rid of the ball faster instead of being a pin cushion for Trey Hendrickson (3.5 sacks).

It’s just such a frustrating offense to watch, because there’s no reason they can’t be better than this. The coaching incompetence is high, and once again, Mike Tomlin has no answers for a losing streak.

They probably embrace going to Baltimore because of past success and playing an ugly, low-scoring game. But they did just lose 34-17 there, so this might be a rude awakening and a 5-game losing streak to end the season.

Chiefs at Broncos: That’s Going to Leave a Mark on the Stats

Well, I guess the Chiefs aren’t very good when they rest their ~13 best players for the playoffs and they’re facing a team that’s playing for their season that already should have beat the KC starters in Arrowhead earlier this year.

But god damn, 38-0? Making Bo Nix look like a mobile Drew Brees. The Broncos outgained them 479-98. You have to go back to the 2000 Browns against the Jaguars to find the last NFL team to get outgained by at least 380 yards while being held under 100 yards.

The Chiefs aren’t going to care about this performance, but it does create an interesting dynamic. What if this spurs the Broncos to go beat Buffalo in this week’s 7-2 matchup, which would send the Broncos right back to Arrowhead after the Chiefs haven’t played their starters for 24-25 days? Getting rid of Buffalo would be ideal, but let’s not act like Denver hasn’t played the Chiefs well even going back to last year. The Chiefs just don’t score much on them and they have multiple DPOY candidates.

Maybe the Broncos flop in Buffalo and it’s a moot point, but they won there last year by forcing the Bills into so many turnovers that they fired their offensive coordinator. The Bills are due for some turnovers too.

Interesting AFC race all around this year. I still think a Bengals-Bills game would have been must-see TV and the most interesting 7-2 game you could have, but we’ll see if Denver can turn this opportunity into something.

Bears at Packers: Not Feeling Good About Green Bay Anymore

If I’m just being honest, the Packers, my preseason Super Bowl pick, haven’t done much to impress me this season. Had it not been for a blocked field goal in Chicago, they would have finished 0-6 in division games. They already lost in Brazil to the Eagles, their playoff opponent. They beat up on a paper tiger like the Dolphins on Thanksgiving and smoked the 49ers without Brock Purdy. They beat the Rams before they were good this year.

What’s their best win? A 24-22 squeaker over the Texans? Maybe they’ll surprise us in the playoffs, but I’m not sure Sunday could have gone much worse as Matt LaFleur suffered his first loss to the Bears, which ended their 10-game losing streak overall and their 11-game losing streak to the Packers by making a field goal at the end. Had the Packers just picked up 2 more yards to get a fresh set of downs, they could have won the game themselves on a walk-off field goal. But they left Caleb Williams time, and after dinking and dunking to little success all day, he came through and his kicker had his back this time.

Jordan Love injured his elbow and his status is unknown. Christian Watson left injured, but what else is new there? I just don’t feel good at all about Green Bay repeating last year’s playoff success as the No. 7 seed. This team won more games (11-6), but what’s impressive? At least they won in Detroit last year and beat the Chiefs.

Commanders at Cowboys: Mariota to the Rescue

While the Packers were losing to the Bears, the Commanders were on the ropes against the Cowboys once again. I’m not sure what Jayden Daniels was trying to accomplish in this game, but after taking several sacks, they sent him to the bench at halftime for veteran Marcus Mariota.

But they continued playing their other starters as Terry McLaurin came up clutch on the game-winning drive. He had four catches on the drive, including the game-winning touchdown from 5 yards out with just 0:03 left. That’s how the Commanders were able to get to 12 wins with a 23-19 victory over a Dallas team that got a monster game out of Micah Parsons (2.5 sacks) and a rare look at Trey Lance, who I still say should have been starting over Cooper Rush after Dak Prescott was lost.

So concludes a very disappointing Dallas season at 7-10. But I will say that Jerry Jones is surprisingly gifted as an actor after seeing him in Landman this weekend.

Panthers at Falcons: Bryce Young Finishes Strong

The Panthers (5-12) could be a trendy pick for the NFC South or wild card next year after a respectable finish for Bryce Young given where his season began. Sunday was arguably his best game ever as he accounted for 5 total touchdowns, including the walk-off winner in overtime in a 44-38 game.

But we have all offseason to talk about whether we can trust that finish or see what pieces the Panthers add to this roster. The more troubling issue is the way Atlanta (8-9) faltered down the stretch, and the way the defense has disappointed rookie quarterback Michael Penix Jr., who led a couple of game-tying touchdown drives but never got the ball in overtime losses to Washington and Carolina.

The Falcons just gave up 44 points in his third start. As you might imagine, Tom Brady went 381 starts in the NFL without his team ever allowing more than 42 points. I like to bring that up only because it puts Brady’s incredible team help in context, but also because most of those games were under Bill Belichick, the coach the Falcons spurred in hiring in favor of Morris this year.

Still liking that move, Mr. Blank?

Seahawks at Rams: Geno’s Money Drive

Not much was on the line for the Seahawks, but Geno Smith had $6 million in incentives to hit, and he pulled off the trifecta for them. The key was getting the 10th win of the season for Seattle, the first 10-win team to miss the playoffs in the 7-team format. But it took a 4QC/GWD for Geno, the richest one of his career as he fought through the pain to throw his fourth touchdown pass to put the Seahawks up late.

Jimmy Garoppolo tried to answer after playing a solid game with the Rams’ backups, but his 4th-and-ballgame pass skipped in there short in a 30-25 loss. I’m a little surprised the Rams didn’t try to win for the No. 3 seed, but I guess they see little difference in No. 4 and No. 3, and they already beat the Vikings this year, their opponent next week.

But a good day for Geno that almost makes up for blowing the first Rams game that cost them the division title in the end.

Chargers at Raiders: Now the Real Fun Begins

Is Week 18 even real football when Quentin Johnston is catching 13-of-14 targets for 186 yards? But look out if he’s playing like that with Justin Herbert having his best defense, his best offensive line, and a real coach going into the playoffs with some momentum and a quality matchup in Houston next week.

This team is Kansas City’s worst nightmare in the divisional round. A gamer like Herbert who already tested them in Arrowhead without Ladd McConkey and J.K. Dobbins, and a pass rush that was after Mahomes all night and held the Chiefs under 20 points in both games. I could easily see NFL Films recording a “Who’s got it better than us?” chant from Harbaugh in a victorious locker room in two weeks to end the three-peat.

But first thing’s first. The Chargers need to deliver in Houston against that pass rush next week. Herbert has to get that first playoff win under his belt.

As for the Raiders, I’d fire the coach and do whatever I can to find some new quarterbacks for 2025.

Dolphins at Jets: Is That It for Aaron Rodgers?

I’m not surprised at all that Aaron Rodgers lit up the Dolphins for four touchdowns in what will probably be his last game for the Jets. Paper tiger defense with a backup quarterback starting in place of Tua Tagovailoa. It was never going to end well for Miami this year, and now Tyreek Hill seems to be on the way out – the Jimmy Butler path?

But Rodgers and the Jets (5-12) were the biggest disappointment in the league this year. If you told someone he’d get a trade for Davante Adams and finished with the stat line he had, you’d think the Jets were 10-7 or 11-6. But they blew a league-high six leads in the fourth quarter and firing Robert Saleh was premature.

Bills at Patriots: New England Wins, New England Loses, New England Fires Coach

The Bills definitely did the right thing by losing this one to make sure the Patriots didn’t have control of the No. 1 pick in the 2025 draft. Don’t need them getting Travis Hunter, but that’s still a possibility if the other teams force quarterback picks at the top.

But the team’s 4th win of the season was no happy ending for owner Robert Kraft, who waited almost no time before firing coach Jerod Mayo. I think that’s the right call since he never should have been hired in the first place and didn’t show any value for the job this year. But the timing was still a bit harsh. Mike Vrabel coming next?

Shout out to Joe Milton though. I don’t care who was on the field for either team. He made some spectacular plays and should get some longer looks in the NFL even if it has to be with another team down the road.

Giants at Eagles: Tanner McKee the New Kevin Kolb or Matt Flynn?

With the way teams are so quarterback starved, Tanner McKee could be making himself some money with these performances late in the year for the Eagles. He’s thrown 4 touchdown passes in basically 6 quarters, and they asked him to throw 41 passes in a wire-to-wire win against the Giants with the Eagles resting their good players – just like the Chiefs did but with far better results against a weaker opponent.

But even with backups, the Eagles had enough on both sides of the ball to get past the Giants, who will finish 3-14 with a ton of question marks.

Hell, maybe they can trade a third-round pick for McKee…

Jaguars at Colts: Overtime? In This Economy?

I guess no one told the Jaguars (4-13) and Colts (8-9) their game didn’t mean anything, because these motherfvckers went to overtime in Week 18. It ended the way you should expect with Joe Flacco leading his 30th game-winning drive with a field goal, and Mac Jones being unable to answer it because of a sack and a 20-yard completion on 4th-and-22.

We’ll see if both coaches are back next year, but I think it’s pretty unlikely, especially in Jacksonville.

Texans at Titans: Will Levis Era Over?

Is it over for Will Levis in Tennessee, which finished 3-14 and secured the No. 1 pick? If so, it was a fitting end in a 23-14 loss in Houston where he was involved in some wild turnover and touchdown plays.

And it seems to me you lived your life

Like a candle in the wind

Never knowing who to throw to

When the blitz came in

And I wish they didn’t draft you

With that high of a pick

Your mayo ran out long before

At least your dick is big

Goodnight, sweet prince.

49ers at Cardinals: When San Francisco Goes Low…

San Francisco’s last 22 seasons since 2003 only include 15 non-winning seasons and 7 trips to at least the NFC Championship Game. There’s no middle ground with this team, which fell to last place in the NFC West with a 6-11 record. The injuries will be blamed for this one, and that’s fair to a degree, but let’s not act like blowing all those fourth-quarter leads in the division didn’t ultimately screw them.

Meanwhile, the Cardinals (8-9) completed the sweep here by running up the score to 47 points, but where was this offense in all those weeks where they couldn’t break 14 or 17 points? Too inconsistent for me.

Browns at Ravens: The Biggest Spread of the Season

For a while there, it didn’t look like the Ravens were going to cover the 20-point spread, the largest this season. They were only up 21-10 in the fourth quarter after dropping a ton of passes, Zay Flowers left early with a knee injury, and the Ravens looked a little bored defensively and frustrated offensively. But Derrick Henry finally got rolling after a poor start, and before you knew it, the Ravens were up 35-10 to put this one away and win the AFC North.

Did Lamar Jackson do enough for his third MVP? I think he already did before the game started. It wasn’t the masterpiece ending for his case, but he didn’t do much wrong in this one. Will voters just go with the pity vote for Josh Allen like the sportsbooks seem to think given the odds? We’ll see. But Jackson just had arguably the greatest dual-threat season ever, and we’ll see if he can turn it into his best playoff run.

Next week: The playoffs. That means the annual Houston playoff game on a Saturday afternoon to kick things off. Then we’ll see if Pittsburgh’s historically underperforming playoff defense will show up again, or if Baltimore’s historically underperforming playoff offense will neutralize it in one of the closest games this weekend. I’m not that sold Denver will give Buffalo a good game, but maybe the Chiefs gave them some confidence in what they’re doing. Packers-Eagles will be played on a better field than Brazil this time. Commanders-Bucs, the last time these teams met in the playoffs in Tampa (January 2006), my furnace was broke, so hopefully that’s not a repeat event this weekend. Vikings-Rams is a perfect matchup to end the week, the rematch of the missed facemask penalty.