Tag: Dolphins

NFL Stat Oddity: 2022 Wild Card Weekend

~ scottkacsmar ~ 3 Comments

Much like those Burger King commercials tossing “You rule!” at the end, I pretty much feckin’ cringe when I hear “Super Wild Card Weekend.” So, I couldn’t bring myself to call it that in the headline, but it was a great weekend of games.

Even with several backup quarterbacks and plenty of playoff inexperience, every team showed up competitively for at least three quarters. Every team except the Chargers, who only showed up for two.

Just four weeks ago, we had the largest comeback in NFL history, which I did a big story on for the Vikings. Twenty-eight days later, we had the fifth-largest comeback win in Jacksonville. The wild card round is now home to three of the five biggest comebacks in NFL history, all from a deficit of 27-plus points.

But the 49ers’ rookie quarterback did something we hadn’t seen since 1937, the Chargers cemented their legacy as the Falcons of the AFC, the Bills are the only team capable of making the No. 7 seed look like it belongs, the Giants ended another historic NFL winning streak, and Joe Burrow willed his defense to the longest fumble return touchdown in playoff history (and maybe the most significant one ever).

Oh yeah, there were also a shitload of bad third-and-1 calls in every game as teams don’t seem to understand how important possession is in the postseason. Between the third-and-1 calls and the turnovers, there is a lot to go over here.

This season in Stat Oddity:

Cowboys at Buccaneers: Not with a Bang But a Whimper

So, was that it? We were fooled last year, but the Rams loss was really such a perfect game for Tom Brady to end his career with. But he just had to come back for this, an 8-10 finish with the worst offense of his career and an embarrassing home playoff loss in a 31-14 game that wasn’t even that close.

This letdown of the week against Dallas was so forgettable that I’m not even going to bother creating a separate link to cover it. I’ve just pasted it at the top of the week’s recap after 2 A.M. Hard to believe a playoff game with Brady, Mike McCarthy, and Dan Quinn could be this dull.

First, we were treated to five minutes of neither team looking like it could gain a first down. But once Dallas broke through with a touchdown, Brady had a long drive to answer going into the second quarter. After a weekend that was so competitive and dramatic, this was a wire-to-wire win that had one moment of competitiveness.

Then it was over in an instant after Brady forced a brutal pass from the 5-yard line and it was intercepted in the end zone, his first red-zone pick with the Buccaneers. What a time to make it.

The Cowboys drove 80 yards from there and Dak Prescott finished with the naked bootleg for a 1-yard touchdown run on a fourth down. He would also throw his second touchdown of the half to tight end Dalton Schultz, but kicker Brett Maher missed all three extra points in the half as Dallas led 18-0.

The Bucs looked terrible, but this rope-a-dope strategy has been their bread-and-butter all year. They had to make a run in the second half, right? Well, the Cowboys were still hot in the third quarter with another 86-yard touchdown drive to take a 24-0 lead that wasn’t 28-0 because Maher somehow missed four straight extra points.

It appears Gisele was the one with the dark magic, because Brady only seemed to have time to make a voodoo doll for Maher, his only source of luck in this game. According to Elias, Maher’s four misses are the most missed extra points in any game (regular season or postseason) in NFL history, and he did it on four in a row.

It’s still a nice addition to the list for the LOAT in maybe his final game, but this was a snoozer with no real drama in the second half.

From the ESPN broadcast, we learned that Tampa Bay was 3-for-59 (5%) on third down with 10+ yards to go this season, the worst by any offense since 1980. Throw in 0-for-5 in this game and that’s 3-for-64, one of my favorite new stats.

The Bucs would not go scoreless as Brady finally found Julio Jones, who looked as good as he did all year, for a 30-yard touchdown on the third quarter’s final play to make it 24-6.

But any hope of a wild fourth quarter was quickly put to rest by Prescott, who was money on the night. Bypassing a fourth-and-4 because of how bad Maher was, the Cowboys used a bunch formation and somehow got CeeDee Lamb wide open for an 18-yard touchdown, Dak’s fourth of the night to go along with 305 yards and a rush touchdown. Just by far his best playoff game, and the kind of performance you want to see from a 12-win team against an 8-9 fraud.

Brady had three more drives after that, and he got a touchdown on the second one. The Bucs also recovered an onside kick, just the fourth in the league this year, at the 2:00 warning, but it was too late by then. Mike Evans even dropped a long touchdown on one of the few good Brady throws of the night just to fvck my last bet.

It was amusing to not look at the stats once during this game and only check them after it was over. Brady finished with 66 passes but only 351 yards. Brady is the only quarterback in the Super Bowl era to throw 65-plus passes in a game and score fewer than 17 points. George Blanda once threw 68 passes in a 24-10 loss against the 1964 Bills in the AFL.

Home games where Tom Brady’s team trailed after all four quarters:

  • New England: 6-for-162 (3.7%)
  • Tampa Bay: 8-for-27 (29.6%)

The problems for the Bucs were the same they were all year in their worst moments. They were one-dimensional, they were ineffective on first down, seemingly every second down was a WR screen, and a dump pass to the running back was their best play. The deep shots were almost all bad, and Brady threw countless passes into the dirt as Micah Parsons and pass rush ate well against that line.

Dallas did just about everything very well but special teams. On the bright side, at least Maher made the extra point on his fifth try, so hopefully he will get that out of his system for next week in San Francisco. That’s where Dallas is headed after finally winning its first road playoff game since the 1992 NFC Championship Game in San Francisco. This is a way better matchup than having to watch Brady and this putrid offense against a team they trailed 35-0.

As for Brady’s future, he’ll have to decide that. I’m not sure this season could be any clearer that he should have never ended his retirement after 40 days. The 49ers aren’t going to want him when they have three better options in 2023. Any team he goes to is going to have to be stacked and in win-now mode, and there are almost none of them out there that don’t already have their quarterback.

Will he really think going to the AFC West at 46 years old, with the Raiders and Josh McDaniels, and dealing with Mahomes and Herbert (and maybe Russell Wilson with a good coach again) is a good path to get to the Super Bowl again?

The NFC South is still his safe haven, but this Tampa team is poorly coached and not good enough anymore to go on a deep run.

The same can be said of Brady, who without a Jared Cook fumble in New Orleans two years ago likely never gets out of the divisional round in the last four years. No matter where he goes to play next, they are going to be dealing with an old quarterback who doesn’t want to get hit anymore, doesn’t hold the ball to extend plays, doesn’t give you the rushing threat almost every starter has these days, and he’s going to throw passes in the dirt and bitch his teammates out on a weekly basis while looking miserable.

Even Michael Jordan knew better than to give the Wizards a third season or a third NBA team his services. Tom, just hang them up, and take the god damn FOX money so you can still be an annoying part of our NFL Sundays.

Ravens at Bengals: Clutch Defense to the Rescue for the Offensive Team Again

It is starting to get unfair, isn’t it? The young, offensive-driven team with the franchise quarterback, three great wide receivers, solid backs, a marginal offensive line, and a coach you still would struggle to pick out of a Costco cashier lineup is now 4-1 in the playoffs.

And once again, they used a clutch takeaway on defense with the game tied and the odds stacked against them.  

From the 1-yard line in a 17-17 game in the fourth quarter, Baltimore quarterback Tyler Huntley tried to extend the ball on a quarterback sneak on third down and had it swatted away, popped out right to Sam Hubbard, and he returned it 98 yards for a game-winning touchdown with 11:39 to play. It is the longest fumble return touchdown in NFL playoff history.

Given what was at stake, you could argue this is the first or second-biggest fumble return touchdown in NFL history. The only other game-winning fumble return touchdown in the fourth quarter or overtime of a playoff game was when Arizona’s Karlos Dansby got the ball after a strip-sack of Aaron Rodgers to beat Green Bay 51-45 in overtime in the 2009 NFC Wild Card. The Packers were deep in their own end at the time.

While there were still over 11 minutes left when this happened, the Ravens were in prime position to take a 24-17 lead on a night where the Bengals once again failed to crack 300 yards on this Baltimore defense. It’s happened all three times this year, though at least this one can be argued that they only had seven real drives.

But this was a massive swing in playoff win probability for a Super Bowl contender, and given the record length, you have to consider it right up there with any fumble return touchdown ever.

AFC North Race Changed on Lamar Jackson’s Health

The Bengals have not won a Super Bowl yet, but they were certainly close last year, and here they go again with their fourth one-score win in the postseason. The four playoff wins are double what the Ravens (2) have mustered as postseason wins in the last decade since winning Super Bowl 47. That’s also one more playoff win than Mike Tomlin (3) has in his last 12 seasons since losing Super Bowl 45.

But this year’s AFC North race was heavily tilted by Lamar Jackson’s knee injury in Week 13. The Ravens never scored more than 17 points in their final seven games after that injury.

The fact that they didn’t score more than 17 in this game would have surprised no one before the game, but if you tuned in for the fourth quarter, you were shocked to see how they crumbled in the moment this time.

Leading Up To the Historic Fumble

I pointed out multiple times this week that the Week 18 game between the Ravens and Bengals, which the Ravens played many backups for, featured 28 offensive drives. That is a gross number of drives for two offenses of playoff teams. There were a lot of punts and turnovers in that game.

But this game had just 16 possessions, and the Ravens even had two extra possessions than the Bengals, though not for the best reasons.

These teams thrived on long drives, but the Ravens seemed to capture some real belief in an upset after a quick-strike in the third quarter following Joe Burrow’s sneak touchdown to take a 17-10 lead back for Cincinnati. Huntley found Demarcus Robinson wide open for a 41-yard touchdown pass after he burned corner Eli Apple on a double move to tie the game.

The Bengals went three-and-out, and the Ravens began their fateful march as the game moved into the final frame. Just when it looked like another bad third-and-1 play was dialed up, Mark Andrews came down with a great 25-yard reception, his best play in a postseason game where he has been criticized for his lack of plays in the past.

But after a 35-yard run by Huntley set up first-and-goal at the 2, he really messed up by short-arming a throw in the flat to Patrick Ricard. The play was there, but Huntley missed his fullback. That led to the pivotal third-and-1, and obviously I am in favor of a quarterback sneak. But it looked like a full yard away or better, so when Huntley decided to leave his feet and stick the ball out, you kind of felt disaster was coming. Sure enough, the Bengals knocked it out and Hubbard made the record-setting return.

The lunge to stick the ball out on the sneak, often done so well by Drew Brees in his days, is really a last resort play. You can do it on fourth down or maybe a two-point conversion from the 1, but in this situation where you know the Ravens could just go for it on fourth down, it was really risky to do it on third down. A tactical error for sure.

Ravens Flopped After the Fumble

Unsurprisingly, the Ravens struggled to score the rest of the way. But the Ravens also got hosed on a weak roughing the punter call to extend a Cincinnati drive, though the Bengals failed to gain a first down on their final four series of plays. 

It looked like the Cincinnati offense was blowing it, and after a bad punt effort for the Bengals, Huntley had the ball back with 3:14 left at the Cincinnati 46 – tons of time and an incredible situation to be in for the underdog. You know John Harbaugh was going for two instead of overtime, but would the Ravens score too fast?

We should have been asking would they score at all, because the Ravens seemed to play the clock more than they remembered to call good plays. It took two minutes to move 18 yards. While everyone would love to score in the final seconds and win by one point, things rarely work out that nicely.

The Ravens even tried squeezing a run in only to be denied by a holding penalty. Huntley’s passes were not even close to connecting with a human being, and just like that it was fourth-and-20 from the Cincinnati 27 with 8 seconds left.

Hail Mary was the only choice. Huntley stumbled a bit before regaining himself, making the throw, and only on a deflection did the Ravens have a slight shot at a miracle catch before the ball hit the ground, ending their season and allowing the Bengals to double them up in playoff wins for the last decade.

Burrow the Babyface LOAT?

Cincinnati’s offense scored 17 points, did not have a single 20-yard play, did not have a single first down without penalty on the final four series, and yet they still won the game by the skin of their teeth against a backup quarterback.

That is some LOAT material if I’ve ever seen it, which was something I floated out repeatedly last postseason about Burrow turning into the new Tom Brady.

But this is already the third playoff game where Burrow’s defense forced a turnover in a tied fourth quarter or overtime. They intercepted Ryan Tannehill at midfield in the AFC divisional round last year to set up a game-winning field goal in the final minute. They intercepted Patrick Mahomes in overtime in the AFC Championship Game to set up another game-winning field goal. Now the longest fumble return touchdown in playoff history against the Ravens.

Since 2001, there have only been 16 turnovers in a tied fourth quarter or overtime in a playoff game. Burrow has been the beneficiary of 3-of-16. The only other quarterback with more than one was Drew Brees, who had two in the fourth quarter against the Vikings in the NFC Championship Game. Even Brady has never had one of these go his way if you can believe it. Burrow also threw an interception in Kansas City last January, so he has been involved directly or indirectly in the last four of these moments.

So, this is one area where Burrow is blowing the LOAT and everyone else out of the water.

But what’s not very LOAT like is losing a third starting linemen in the last three weeks as left tackle Jonah Williams left with a bad looking injury. Neither is having to go to Buffalo when the NFL should have considered this a neutral situation just as much as Bills-Chiefs, but I have all week to write about the future here.

Hell, I had to write three different previews this week for this one Ravens-Bengals game (four if you count the prediction blurb on this blog), so let’s just save the preview talk for later. But this game did turn out a lot better than I thought it would even though my predictions was Bengals 24-16. The Ravens are a tough out. But we may never see Jackson again in a Baltimore uniform, so this could be the end of an era there.

Meanwhile, the Bengals play on.

Giants at Vikings: Giant Streak Killers End Kevin O’Connell’s Run

It finally happened. The 2022 Vikings lost a one-score game after going 11-0 at them in the regular season. They failed at a comeback and game-winning drive opportunity after going 8-0 in them. Going back to last year’s Super Bowl run with the Rams, Vikings coach Kevin O’Connell had streaks of 14-0 in close games, 11-0 at game-winning drives, and 10-0 at fourth-quarter comebacks.

They’re all over too as the best streak-killing franchise in the NFL ended another one:

  • It was the Giants who beat the 1934 Bears (13-0) in the NFL Championship Game.
  • It was the Giants who ended the 49ers’ three-peat Super Bowl attempt in the 1990 NFC Championship Game.
  • It was the Giants who beat the 1998 Broncos (13-0) to deny them a perfect season on their way to repeating.
  • It was the Giants who beat the 2007 Patriots (18-0) in Super Bowl 42 to deny 19-0 perfection.
  • Now it was the 2022 Giants who end another Minnesota season filled with history-making wins.

If you studied the game these teams played in Week 16, then you should have expected something close, high scoring, and dramatic. The teams did not disappoint. In fact, they were even better than expected.

I joked Saturday that Daniel Jones would throw for 300 yards and rush for 100 yards in Minnesota. He came close with 301 passing yards and 78 rushing yards, only the second quarterback in playoff history to hit those numbers. Lamar Jackson had 365 passing and 143 rushing in that upset loss to the 2019 Ravens when he had 83 dropbacks.

Jones only had 55 dropbacks, but it was one of the best games of his career, if not the best given the moment. He found plenty of open receivers and his legs were dynamic in the first half when he did most of his damage.

Kirk Cousins did not play a bad game by any means, and he was within reach of a ninth comeback and game-winning drive after leading the Vikings to a 24-24 tie in the fourth quarter as the teams traded long drive after long drive. On a weekend with many turnovers and short fields, it was refreshing to see a 31-24 game where all but one scoring drive was 75-plus yards.

But it was the Vikings’ game-tying field goal in the fourth quarter that was the shortest scoring drive at 56 yards. The Vikings were going to go for a fourth-and-1 at the New York 16, but they had to change course after a poor time for a false start.

Jones was no stranger to game-winning drives this year, and he led his sixth of 2022 by driving the Giants 75 yards for a touchdown. Isaiah Hodgins had a huge game with 108 yards and a touchdown, and he had a 19-yard catch on the go-ahead drive. Jones converted a fourth-and-1 run, and Saquon Barkley scored his second touchdown run in his first playoff game to take a 31-24 lead with half a quarter left.

The Vikings went three-and-out on an uninspiring drive, and it was starting to look like the close-game streak was on life support. But the Giants blew a shot to run out the clock after Darius Slayton spoiled a strong game by dropping a pass on third-and-15 with room to run, stopping the clock.

The lucky Vikings, the worst 13-win team in NFL history, were full of life again with just under 3:00 left and 88 yards away from the end zone. After a horrific roughing the passer penalty gifted them 15 yards and a first down, you could already see the 32-31 win coming after a two-point conversion. O’Connell was going to set more history with a fourth-straight playoff win by 1-to-3 points.

But after the Vikings got to midfield, things stalled. Cousins threw a good ball to K.J. Osborn on a third-and-8, but the defense held up, and maybe even got there a little early and held up Osborn. No flag. On fourth-and-ballgame, the Vikings ran a play that will be crucified for quite some time.

While T.J. Hockenson had a great game with over 100 yards again, he’s not exactly Rob Gronkowski with the ball in his hands. He wasn’t going to break a tackle on a 3-yard throw and pick up the first down with YAC. But that’s where Cousins threw the ball, and that’s how Minnesota’s season ended. All those record comebacks and they throw a full 5 yards short of the sticks on fourth down to a draped receiver.

It sure was a letdown and the kind of failed completion that Cousins is better known for than the comeback legend he was in 2022. But I have to say the design of the play was poor, and most of the receivers were too far away from the marker either way. Cousins could have just chucked up the ball to Justin Jefferson, because we know that’s worked before on fourth down. It probably gives them a better chance than what he ultimately did, but he didn’t take it after a quick pressure was in his face as the Vikings had a glaring offensive line issue that was part of their downfall.

But the Giants also did a fabulous job of taking Jefferson (7 catches for 49 yards) away, especially after an opening drive that saw him catch four balls for 30 yards. He had just 19 yards the rest of the way as the Giants made sure to keep an eye on him.

The Giants did not blitz much like they are known for doing, but like in Week 16, they did a great job of limiting the big plays against the Vikings. With Jefferson a non-factor after the first drive, they also took away the drive-sustaining plays he can make as he had 12 catches in Week 16. The Vikings were also outrushed by the Giants by Jones alone 78-to-61.

It is hard to put too much criticism on the Vikings’ offense. They scored three touchdowns and a field goal on eight drives. They just faltered in the fourth quarter, which is something I have been expecting since October. The fact that it came in a playoff game at home against the Giants is likely not just coincidence, but it says more about how well the Giants played in Week 16 than any playoff choking issue or curse on the franchise.

But Brian Daboll and his staff did an excellent job, and Jones was very sharp on the road. They’ll face a much tougher task in Philadelphia next week, but maybe this is their chance to get revenge for 2008 when the Eagles upset the top-seeded Giants and ended their repeat bid.

It is New York’s first playoff win since Super Bowl 46. As for the Vikings, they will be a very trendy pick for big regression next year in their record. But again, I’m not going to bother talking about that now when we have most of 2023 to point out how the Vikings just aren’t winning the close games like they were last year.

Because no one is this lucky to win every close game in the NFL. 

Dolphins at Bills: Buffalo Marathon Ends with Legitimate Scare

No one circles the wagons to barely beat the No. 7 seed by three points at home like the Buffalo Bills.

I am not sure how an NFL game can last nearly four hours without going to overtime, but if it wasn’t for Buffalo, No. 7 seeds would look illegitimate after three years of this playoff format.

The only No. 7 seeds to not lose by 12-plus points played at Buffalo: 2020 Colts lost 27-24 in a thriller and the Dolphins were a 14-point underdog but still had their shot in a 34-31 game in the fourth quarter.

You have to give Miami rookie coach Mike McDaniel a lot of credit for playing the Bills tough all three times despite having the lesser team. On Sunday, he was down to a third-string rookie quarterback and did not have his best running back (Raheem Mostert).

The Dolphins only rushed 20 times for 42 yards. Skylar Thompson was 18-of-45 passing for 220 yards, though he had several big drops, especially from Jaylen Waddle, who looked a bit soft in his playoff debut. Tyreek Hill was no Buffalo killer this year with 69 yards on seven catches and 15 targets.

But even with those abysmal numbers and an early 17-0 hole, this game was very close and a legitimate scare for the Bills, who have spent most of this year as the Super Bowl favorite. They were fortunate they didn’t have to face a healthy Tua Tagovailoa in this one.

It’s the Turnovers, Stupid

This was mostly a game because of turnovers, which isn’t surprising in the playoffs. But the Bills better get control of this, because turnovers are likely going to be the downfall to their season. They had a neutral turnover differential in the regular season with 27 giveaways (third most) and 27 takeaways. Not what you’d expect from a 13-3 team.

They lost the takeaway battle 2-3 in this one. We are still waiting to figure out what kind of playoff quarterback Josh Allen wants to be, and right now, a chaotic one is the best answer. He was absolutely brilliant in the two games last season, but between this game and his first two runs, he’s looking more like a Brett Favre (young and old) out there.

Even from the first drive of the game Allen was up to some shenanigans with the ball coming out of his grasp on a third-down run before it went out of bounds. Then he was picked on a deep ball by Xavien Howard with the Bills up 17-3 in the second quarter, and that started the comeback.

Khalil Shakir dropped a 54-yard pass from Allen, which came a few drives after Dawson Knox tried to use the ground to help him catch a touchdown, so it was a day filled with some amazing catches and some poor jobs by players on both teams at catching the ball.

But Buffalo was close to blowing them out before halftime. Sloppiness won out. Miami had settled for another field goal, and three plays later, Allen was intercepted again after trying to go for Cole Beasley. The Dolphins turned that into an 18-yard touchdown drive and game-tying two-point conversion, shocking the crowd, but not before the Bills added a field goal to take a 20-17 lead into the locker room after a two-hour half.

But the third quarter started worse with Allen getting stripped of the ball and seeing Miami recover it for a touchdown to take a 24-20 lead – Miami’s first third-quarter lead in a playoff game since playing Buffalo in the 1998 season. A long time ago.

Allen was sacked seven times with three turnovers on the day, and he started to press when trailing on two bad drives in a row. But this was where the Dolphins really missed an experienced quarterback, because they couldn’t take advantage of Buffalo’s implosion. On a third-and-19, Thompson made his dumbest play of the day to force a pass that was intercepted, putting the Bills at the Miami 33 and setting up an easy short field for a go-ahead touchdown. Miami never led again.

You can understand why teams like screens and draws in those situations. You’re unlikely to convert, so just get out of there with something safe. McDaniel miscalculated letting his rookie throw, and if he was going to throw, he should have just thrown a bomb instead of a ball that put Buffalo that close to the end zone for some much-needed help.

Closing It Out (Barely)

The Bills seemed back on track with consecutive touchdowns and a 34-24 lead, but like in Week 15, the Dolphins kept coming back. Another touchdown drive made it 34-31, and Allen was again pressing with sacks and incomplete shot plays. Allen also took back-to-back sacks in the four-minute offense and nearly lost another fumble.

But for all the good McDaniel did as an underdog here, the management of getting plays called in and getting the snap off in time was piss poor. The Dolphins also wasted two timeouts early in the half, and they even had to spend their third timeout with the clock stopped and 4:13 left. That really made their last drive in a 34-31 game do-or-die without any timeouts, and they botched that too by getting a delay of game penalty on a fourth-and-1 to make it fourth-and-5. I don’t know how you get caught trying to change personnel with under 15 seconds on the play clock on the biggest play of the game. I refuse to just blame the rookie quarterback for this problem that lasted most of the game.

Supposedly, McDaniel tried to justify the delay of game by saying they were told they had a first down and didn’t think it was fourth down. Either way, this was poorly managed throughout the game, and it hurt Miami.

On the fateful fourth down, Thompson’s pass to Mike Gesicki wasn’t bad but the defense was better. It was incomplete with 2:22 left. The Bills could run most of the clock out, and they did after Devin Singletary fought forward for a 7-yard gain on third-and-7.

At least that’s how they marked it on the field. You’ll never convince me he made the yard to gain, and it should have been fourth down. The Bills probably sneak it and get it anyway, or Miami probably doesn’t do anything with it in under 40 seconds. But I still would prefer to see a more legitimate ending, because it sure felt like Miami got screwed on that spot. 

Miami is the first double-digit underdog to cover the spread in the wild card round. Buffalo has been my pick all year to win the Super Bowl, but boy, let’s just hope the Dolphins had some secret sauce for them, or else this is going to be a fast exit.

Chargers at Jaguars: I Think This Just Might Be the Chargering Masterpiece

They have done it. In Justin Herbert’s 50th NFL start, the Chargers carved out their masterpiece by blowing a 27-0 playoff lead to the Jaguars in a 31-30 loss that would be shocking to most fanbases, but it was almost inevitable for the Chargers.

Not only is it the third-biggest playoff comeback and fifth-biggest comeback in NFL history, but the Jaguars pulled this one off against all odds after losing the turnover battle 5-0.

You are not supposed to beat the 3-13 Lions by going -5 in turnovers, let alone win a playoff game. But this is Chargering. The game will stand out in the record books for years to come:

  • Trevor Lawrence joins Bobby Layne, George Blanda, Joe Ferguson, and Russell Wilson as the only five quarterbacks to throw four interceptions and win a playoff game. Blanda was the only one to throw five picks. But those other four teams all had multiple takeaways in the win.
  • The Jaguars are the first team in NFL history to win a playoff game with five turnovers and no takeaways. Teams were 0-10 doing this. Jacksonville is the ninth team since 1970 to win a game doing this when you include the regular season.
  • Since 1950, NFL teams allowing 30-plus points with 5+ giveaways and no takeaways are now 3-164 (regular season and playoffs). The last win was 1970 Bills against the Jets.
  • This is the first time a team won a playoff game with a turnover margin of -5 or worse. Teams were previously 0-26 in the playoffs, and all but one lost by double digits.
  • In 50 starts, the Chargers have blown more 17-point leads (4) in Justin Herbert’s career than they did in the previous 19 seasons (3) from 2001-19 since they drafted Drew Brees.
  • The Jaguars had one comeback win from a deficit of 16+ points in their first 455 games. They have three such comebacks in their last 10 games (17 vs. Raiders, 17 vs. Cowboys, 27 vs. Chargers).
  • The Jaguars had lost 41 straight games when allowing more than 20 points. After snapping that streak against Baltimore in Week 12, they are 4-1 in such games.

But much like how the Colts didn’t really deserve a 33-0 lead against the Vikings four weeks ago, the story of this game was a fortunate start by the Chargers that they weren’t playing well enough to sustain. The Jaguars have been making comebacks lately, and we know the Chargers are the right team in the AFC to pull one off against.

Digging the 27-0 Hole

Trevor Lawrence was the quarterback who never lost a Saturday game in his career, and he never threw a first-quarter interception in the NFL, a fact I wasn’t aware of until Saturday night. But he threw three interceptions in this first quarter, a fourth in the second, and the Jaguars also muffed a punt. Lawrence joined Tom Brady (vs. 2009 Ravens) as the only quarterbacks since 2001 to turn the ball over three times in the first quarter of a playoff game.

Right from his first pass, a double-deflected ball at the line that was intercepted, you knew we might be in for an adventure. That helped Justin Herbert to an easy 18-yard touchdown drive where Austin Ekeler did most of the work on a 13-yard scoring run to take a 7-0 lead.

Lawrence was then picked off on a fourth-and-7 by Asante Samuel Jr., though I felt there was an arm grab and it could have easily been penalized. He must have been watching his dad’s tape with the 2000s Patriots for how to get away with contact in big games. The Chargers turned that into a field goal and 10-0 lead.

But after some bad luck with a double tip and no penalty call, Lawrence’s third interception (also to Samuel Jr.) was an abysmal decision. That set up a 16-yard touchdown drive that was all Ekeler runs. In one quarter of his playoff career, Herbert had more touchdown drives that started in the red zone (2) than Peyton Manning (1) had in his first 25 playoff games.

What the hell was going on out there? The Jaguars were destroying my narrative of Herbert becoming this quarterback with the weight of the world on his shoulders every postseason, and now he’s getting every break in the world. Herbert had several passes tipped and deflected in this game, yet they all kept harmlessly hitting the ground. If Lawrence threw them, they would have been picked. It was the No. 1 pick who was looking like the unlucky one.

But Herbert had a few good third-and-long throws on another touchdown drive to get a 24-0 lead. Lawrence threw his fourth pick and third to Samuel, but this was the beginning of the turning point for the game.

The Turning Point

The Chargers did not do anything with Lawrence’s fourth pick, going three-and-out. However, the Jaguars gave them the ball right back by muffing the punt return, setting Herbert up at the Jacksonville 6, a golden opportunity for a third touchdown drive that started in the red zone. Even Tom Brady would be jealous of this.

But Herbert badly missed a wide-open Keenan Allen in the end zone and the Chargers had to settle for a field goal and 27-0 lead. Would things have been different if Mike Williams (back) was active? Maybe, but he’s not 10-foot-tall either. Herbert just missed it badly.

But this sequence has a lot to do with why the Jaguars survived a five-turnover meltdown, because they basically consolidated their last two turnovers into one part of the game, and it only cost them a quick 3 points after the Chargers failed in goal-to-go.

Still, that was only one of two golden opportunities the Chargers blew in the second quarter. The next part, which officially got the comeback going, was when the Chargers got cute on a third-and-1 and tried to do a jet sweep to Michael Bandy. The timing was off, the ball was fumbled, and it nearly ended up being a disastrous turnover.

At 27-0, you still had to view it live as a “wow, Chargers are just getting everything to go their way” moment by them not losing possession and giving Jacksonville a short field. However, it was a disastrous moment as the Chargers could have put this game away with a two-minute drill and taking a 30-0 or 34-0 lead into halftime.

Instead, Jacksonville took advantage of a bad punt and short field to finally get on the board with a touchdown drive, converting a fourth-and-1 along the way, for a 27-7 deficit at halftime.

If you know the Chargers well, you know this was going to be a game again.

The Second-Half Comeback

I’m obviously not going to put this blown lead all on Herbert, but he did have some costly misfires and didn’t do much to help after the big lead, a lead that he didn’t do much to earn.

To start the third quarter, he had three straight incomplete passes at the Jacksonville 38, and the Chargers punted instead of getting more points. The Jaguars turned that into a long touchdown drive to make it 27-14. Gerald Everett caught a ball for 21 yards that was actually a drop, but the Jaguars did not challenge in time, so that was a big drive starter that helped the Chargers to a field goal to make it 30-14.

But they would never score again. Lawrence got hot, Zay Jones scored a 39-yard touchdown, and Joey Bosa got heated with his first unsportsmanlike penalty. The Chargers led 30-20 going into the fourth quarter.

But here is where head coach Brandon Staley really blew the game for his team. I even tweeted that we’re going to find out how smart he is if he acknowledges how much better a 17-point lead is than a 13-point lead is better than 10. He had to be thinking touchdown on a long drive, but the Chargers came up short just outside the 20.

There was a holding penalty that would have made it third-and-13, but the Jaguars declined. Had they knew that Staley would go for this fourth-and-3 like he should have, then maybe Doug Pederson accepts that penalty. But Staley was content with the field goal and the kiss of death known as a 13-point lead.

He got what he deserved as Dicker the Kicker remembered which team he plays for and missed a 40-yard field goal, bringing a tear to Nate Kaeding’s eye somewhere in the galaxy.

Had the Chargers been focused on the three-score lead, they could have wrapped this one up. But Lawrence continued to drive his offense and found Christian Kirk for a 9-yard touchdown with 5:25 left. Bosa was again penalized for throwing his helmet in a fit of rage after he felt the officials missed a false start on the touchdown. I certainly think they missed it too.

But by enforcing the penalty on the extra point, the Jaguars could go for two from the 1-yard line, which is the right call in that spot. Lawrence used his size to do the sneak with full extension, and the Jaguars were only down 30-28.

This was happening for sure now. Just a question of how the finish would look.

Once Herbert took a sack on first down, you knew Lawrence was getting his chance for a game-winning field goal. The Chargers went three-and-out and Lawrence had 3:09 from his own 21, plenty of time.

But a very poor decision to throw on a third-and-1 put the drive in jeopardy with 1:27 left and just out of field-goal range. I’m not sure why you wouldn’t run Travis Etienne there against the No. 32 run defense in yards per carry. On fourth-and-1, it looked like the Jaguars were going to do the trendy push sneak, and they went with a big formation that felt like trouble for them getting a push.

But with a risky call that worked out great, they pitched the ball to Etienne on the edge and he turned up the field for a 25-yard gain and even stayed in bounds to burn more clock. That set up kicker Riley Patterson for a 36-yard field goal on the final play, and he nailed it to complete the comeback and get the 31-30 win.

Doug Pederson is now 6-0 ATS and 5-1 SU as a playoff underdog. This is his first playoff win without Nick Foles.

It looks like Staley is going to survive another year, but his mismanagement of Week 18 and this game, among other things this year, cast real doubt that he’s ever going to lead this team to anywhere but disappointment.

This was a game about field position early. The Chargers scored 27 points on their first seven drives because three started in the red zone and all of them started at the Los Angeles 32 or better. But they managed just one field goal on their last five drives, all of which started inside their own 25.

Once the Jaguars stopped gifting the Chargers short fields, the game completely turned around. Lawrence did a wonderful job of shaking off a brutal start in his first playoff game to deliver.

As for Herbert, he was kind of like Matt Ryan four weeks ago in Minnesota. He was more of a supporting actor than the driving force behind the lead or a significant part of the choke.

Never in doubt. But after a wild start, the Chargers remembered they are the team we thought they were, and they let Jacksonville off the hook with a Chargering masterpiece.

Seahawks at 49ers: When You Break a Sammy Baugh Record…

The first game of the weekend feels like ages ago thanks to the excessively long Buffalo game and the journey we had to take from Jacksonville’s 27-0 deficit to a win.

But San Francisco’s 41-23 win was interesting in that it produced arguably the best playoff game by a rookie quarterback since pre-World War II days in the NFL.

We knew Brock Purdy had this streak going of six straight games with multiple touchdown passes, and only Justin Herbert (2020) had done that in seven straight among rookies. We also know Purdy usually throws for 200 yards, but you have to go back a long way to find a time a rookie quarterback put up numbers like that in the playoffs and his team won.

Of the few rookie quarterbacks to win a playoff game, most did it the game manager way, like a Joe Flacco (2008) or Mark Sanchez (2009). They’re the only two to win two playoff games, but Purdy has a chance to join them after he threw for 332 yards and three touchdowns against Seattle.

  • You have to go back to Bob Waterfield in 1945 to find the last rookie quarterback to throw two touchdowns in a playoff win.
  • You have to go back to Sammy Baugh in 1937 to find the last rookie quarterback to throw for 300 yards and three touchdowns in a playoff win.
  • Hell, Baugh was the last rookie to throw for 200 yards in a win way back in 1937 too, but that’s the company Purdy keeps now.

Baugh and Waterfield did it in championship games, so you can say that’s a lot more impressive in that era than facing the 9-8 Seahawks. But Purdy belongs high on a list of best playoff debuts for any quarterback regardless of age.

Was it all pretty? No, I counted four or five risky throws that a better defense (or a luckier one) may make him pay for in future rounds. Deebo Samuel also showed his world-class YAC with a 74-yard touchdown that was all him. But I did like the improv skills that Purdy showed on his two touchdown passes to the running backs, and he made an incredible play in the fourth quarter to Brandon Aiyuk that was unfortunately dropped in the end zone as Aiyuk had to focus on getting his feet in bounds and forgot his hands.

Where the hell did they find this kid? That one incompletion there is something you won’t see many quarterbacks make in many years of playing. Like, some could play 23 years and literally never do anything close to this.

So I definitely came away intrigued even more with Purdy. As for the rest of the game, you have to say Seattle did a good job for three quarters. They survived the early Kyle Shanahan script, Geno Smith was calm in his playoff debut, they strung together plays, DK Metcalf showed up for a great game, and they even got a penalty on a late hit that set up a field goal and Seattle led 17-16 at the half.

But that Deebo YAC on a third-down short of the sticks led to a huge first down out of the break, and the 49ers were back on top 23-17 with Purdy’s 1-yard rushing touchdown. But I really thought at this point that Geno was dialed in and about to show this defense is falling apart at the wrong time. He converted a third-and-12, the Seahawks were driving into the red zone, then the ineligible man downfield penalties started hitting hard.

It was third-and-14, and one quick pressure led to Smith coughing up the ball, and Nick Bosa was there for the recovery with 2:25 left in the quarter. Total game changer and the 49ers rolled from there. The offense scored another touchdown to go up 31-17, Seattle’s line again self-destructed with penalties to bring up third-and-22, which led to a punt, and that’s when Samuel turned on the jets for the 74-yard dagger to make it 38-17.

Geno immediately threw a pick out of desperation and maybe frustration, and the 49ers just used that to burn more clock and add a field goal after Aiyuk failed to hang onto that play above. Seattle would add a touchdown to make it 41-23 but only 1:48 remained and the game ended after a failed onside kick.

An overmatched Seattle played this very well for three quarters, but when you have four different players capable of a 30-yard play for the 49ers, it was too much offense to handle.

Based on the way the other teams have looked in recent weeks, it is hard not to think the 49ers have all the right stuff to beat anyone and be the legitimate favorite to win it all. I don’t even know what we’re going to do with Purdy if he literally throws multiple touchdowns every week and wins every game on his way to a Super Bowl. He’d be leading the No. 1 scoring offense most likely since he took over. The only thing close to this is Kurt Warner’s story with the 1999 Rams, and while I’m not ready to say Purdy looks that accurate or great, it’s the only historical comparison we really have.

The kid just matched a Sammy Baugh record from 1937. What are we even supposed to do with this info? You expect it all to go horribly wrong in a game or two because he is a rookie and Kyle Shanahan is his head coach, but what if it doesn’t?

Maybe this is just their year.

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NFL 2022 Wild Card Predictions

~ scottkacsmar ~ Leave a comment

It has already been a strange, competetive, mediocre season, so who knows how this postseason will go. My preseason pick was Buffalo beating Tampa Bay 45-17, and I’m really not shying away from that yet. It could definitely happen with the way this NFC is.

In lieu of my usual full-length playoff previews on this blog, I have links to similar full-length previews that I wrote:

This will still be the only place I post my final score predictions for each playoff game.

Some articles I did this week:

Seattle Seahawks vs. San Francisco 49ers (-10)

Preview: Seahawks-49ers

I just want to see if Seattle can score more than 13 points, which is how many points the offense has in eight quarters this year against this defense. I expect the 49ers to win, though Kyle Shanahan and a rookie quarterback is one hell of a playoff combo for classic Shanahanigans. But probably not this week as the Seahawks do not match up well with this team. But I expect it to be closer than the last meeting in SF, and to be the highest scoring game of the season between these teams.

By the way, the team going for the 3-0 split is 14-9, so it usually happens. 49ers didn’t pull it off last year against the Rams, but this is an easier opponent.

Final: 49ers 27, Seahawks 19

Los Angeles Chargers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (+2.5)

Brandon Staley really got Mike Williams hurt right before the playoffs, and the Chargers still lost to Denver. Frankly, I can’t understand why the Chargers are favored in this game, or why the spread has only gone up. They’re on a short week, they were bad last week, they lost Williams, they already lost 38-10 to this Jacksonville team, and they’re on the road here against a team that is statistically better by most metrics. Not a lot better, but better.

I can’t help but think Justin Herbert is going to feel the sting of a one-man show road playoff loss where he throws for over 300 yards, but gets nothing on the ground while the Jaguars crank up Travis Etienne against the defense that ranks No. 32 in yards per carry allowed.

I am concerned about the lack of points in the passing game in the last three weeks for Jacksonville, but we’ll see. This one should be close. Jacksonville’s last seven home games have all been decided by 1-to-7 points.

Final: Jaguars 27, Chargers 24

Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills (-13.5)

Rookie quarterbacks tend to stink in the playoffs as is, but Skylar Thompson is below average and probably replacement level. Mike McDaniel will have to cook up something amazing to keep this one close, or the Bills will have to have a bunch of turnovers. They were No. 3 in giveaways despite playing 16 games.

But the blowout of Miami by Buffalo that I’ve been waiting for since that Week 3 game should happen here. Just unfortunate it’s happening under the circumstances where the Dolphins don’t have their best QB or RB available for this game.

Final: Bills 34, Dolphins 13

New York Giants vs. Minnesota Vikings (-3)

Giants-Vikings

Be sure to read my previews on this game for all the good stats and records involving these teams who love playing close games. I can’t help but think the Giants are going to play well on offense and have a real shot to pull this one out. But I’ll cautoiusly pick the Vikings to win at home.

Final: Vikings 30, Giants 27

Baltimore Ravens vs. Cincinnati Bengals (-8.5)

Ravens-Bengals

I’m just a bit tired of seeing Baltimore (without Lamar Jackson) this season. This game should be better than the Week 18 crapfest these two just played, but I do not see the Ravens being able to score enough to win with Tyler Huntley. At the very least, their defense has been way better this year against Cincinnati, so I think the team is good enough to keep it close and cover.

Final: Bengals 24, Ravens 16

Dallas Cowboys vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+2.5)

Upset: Bucs over Cowboys

I’ve pretty much been saying since October after the Cowboys lost in Philadelphia that they would lose in the wild card round to the Buccaneers. With the way Week 1 happened and the way the Cowboys played in Washington and have been turning the ball over, I see no reason to change the pick now. If anything, they are just preparing to make sure they have a letdown here.

The team without a winning record who gets to host a playoff game is still 4-1 in those games. It’s an advantage the NFL needs to eliminate. However, I’m not sure this Dallas team would win at home either. Remember 19-3? Just figures Dak Prescott would have his worst games of the season to start and end the year.

Just curious to see how Dallas is going to blow this one. Leonard Fournette had his only 100-yard rushing game of the season in Week 1. Playoff Lenny time? Dallas is the only game this year where Tampa held a team under 10 points.

A Dan Quinn defense that has already blown leads of 14 and 17 points after halftime to Green Bay and Jacksonville? A Dallas offense that has thrown a pick-six in three of the last four games? The brain trust that brought us the QB draw in the closing seconds of last year’s wild card loss?

Yeah, save the popcorn for Monday night.

Final: Buccaneers 23, Cowboys 20

NFL Stat Oddity: Week 18

~ scottkacsmar ~ 4 Comments

After 271 games, the 2022 NFL regular season is over. The simplest preview of the playoffs is that it looks like a 3-team buzzsaw in the AFC (Chiefs-Bills-Bengals) and the 49ers may be tempting fate in the mine field that is the NFC and get to the Super Bowl with a rookie quarterback playing better than anyone could have imagined.

Plenty of playoff articles to come, but for now, let’s put Week 18 to rest with its eight comeback opportunities and relatively low drama. Let’s face it, there isn’t much to say about many of these games, and I don’t want to go into 2023 preview mode this early, so this will be a light finish.

But first, a look at how I did on the preseason predictions.

Season Predictions: Worst Fears Confirmed, But Not Exactly the Worst Year Ever

I always knew I had my work cut out for me after nailing so many picks for the 2021 season when I got 28 teams within two games of their final record. Regression to the mean was coming, and I took some chances on my 2022 NFL predictions with picking the Colts and Broncos to win double-digit games and make the playoffs, for Arizona to turn a messy offseason into another postseason, for the Rams to finish as the No. 1 seed for their title defense, and for the Chargers to unseat the Chiefs in the AFC West by one game.

Even one of my best predictions was one I couldn’t ultimately reap, because I said before Week 1 that my initial run through of the schedule was too kind to give the Eagles a 14-3 record, so I watered it down to 11-6 as my final prediction. Sure enough, they did finish 14-3 on their way to the top seed in the NFC.

At the end of the day, I was off by 2.78 wins on average, which is the same as I did in the 2020 pandemic season. A far cry from the 1.28 games in 2021, but not unchartered territory for me.

Since I had the Bills finishing 13-4 and Bengals finishing 9-8, and that game was thrown out, it probably deserves an asterisk to say I had a second team to the exact record when Buffalo was 13-3 and I had 13-4. But the Bills, my Super Bowl pick, still look good going into the playoffs, and after the Damar Hamlin story, I actually feel even more confident in them pulling together to finish this job. But still much work to be done for the Bills.

I’ll have more articles this week looking back where some of these teams went wrong or where I went wrong. Those West divisions certainly had me hoodwinked and bamboozled.

This season in Stat Oddity:

Lions at Packers: Did Detroit Just End Aaron Rodgers’ Career?

It is 5:30 AM and this is my last game to write about after a long weekend. I don’t really want to go down the eulogy for Aaron Rodgers rabbit hole again, but that could have been the end last night. The way he walked off the field with Randall Cobb at his side, the subtle salute to the fans before going in the tunnel, this felt different than the playoff loss to the 49ers last year.

As for the game, it was pretty much a greatest hits of Green Bay in a big home loss with playoff implications:

  • Aaron Jones lost another big fumble in scoring territory before halftime that the Lions turned into a field goal.
  • Defense gave up a huge 43-yard bomb to Kalif Raymond to the 1-yard line.
  • Some bad play around the red zone (misfires, sacks on third down) left the Packers settling for too many field goals.
  • A terrible fourth-and-1 run was snuffed out by the Lions at Green Bay’s own 32, which led to an early Detroit field goal.
  • Mason Crosby hit the crossbar on a 53-yard field goal in the third quarter.
  • Lions converted a fourth-and-2 on their way to the go-ahead touchdown drive with 5:55 left as Jamaal Williams scored two short touchdowns against his former team.
  • On a third-and-10, Rodgers flinched under pressure and just threw up a deep ball that was picked. Better than getting sacked or checking down for a yard, but he never saw the ball again with 3:27 left.
  • Amon-Ra St. Brown caught a pass in his prostate area.
  • The fearless Lions, playing with nothing to lose, were aggressive and smart in running out the clock by declining penalties, trying bold laterals by design, and ultimately putting the game away with a fourth-and-1 pass conversion from Goff to DJ Chark.

It really is a shame the Lions (9-8) were eliminated before the game started with Seattle’s win, and that their season is not continuing next week. Because this team is playing well and they can score. Jared Goff did not throw an interception in the last nine games this season and he will finish No. 5 in QBR (61.2) on the season. Crazy stuff.

Rodgers will turn 40 next season in December. Peyton Manning, Philip Rivers, and Ben Roethlisberger all recently retired after their age-39 season. Does Rodgers follow suit? We’ll just have to wait and find out, but it really does seem like he’s gotten all he could get out of this run with the Packers. I have some faith that Matt LaFleur can make Jordan Love work, but it will be a lot different not seeing Rodgers in Green Bay.

Titans at Jaguars: Fumbling Away the AFC South

Going back to Saturday night’s showdown for the AFC South, this really felt like some 1990s Tom Coughlin vs. Jeff Fisher matchup to me. The game was a grind after some early fireworks, including rookie Treylon Burks trying one of the wildest laterals you will ever see in a play where the clock was not a factor.

But the Titans ended up blowing a 10-0 lead, the 50th time (NFL record) that happened in the 2022 season, and they failed to score on their final five drives. You have to wonder if they win the game if they just play the most conservative approach possible down the stretch.

In the biggest game yet for the Trevor Lawrence era, the offense wasn’t exactly dealing. In fact, the Jaguars are the first team to pull off a fourth-quarter comeback win without gaining a first down in the fourth quarter since the 2000 Panthers against the Chargers (credit to ESPN Stats & Info for putting that one out there).

A game like this is why I really need to add a no decision column to my fourth-quarter comeback opportunity records for quarterbacks, teams, and coaches. Lawrence had the ball in a 16-10 game to start the fourth quarter, and the Jaguars were already in field goal range thanks to a Josh Dobbs interception. The drive gained 7 yards (no first downs) and ended with a 36-yard field goal.

Okay, but it was still a 16-13 Tennessee lead. The Jaguars went three-and-out on their next two drives with Lawrence going 0-for-5 in success rate (0-for-6 in the quarter).

But after draining more than 5:00 off the clock and barely over 3:00 left to play, the Titans faced a third-and-6. Josh Dobbs had a decent game all things considered to this point. But the last thing he could do was turn the ball over. The blitz came and got him from the blind side and he lost the ball on a strip-sack that was picked up and returned for a 37-yard game-winning touchdown by Josh Allen with 2:51 left. It was close to being a forward pass, and the review was surprisingly fast, but it did look like a fumble.

Huge mistake. The Titans aren’t built for comebacks this year with the weak passing game. Dobbs took a sack at midfield that brought up a third-and-12, and the Titans took their first timeout at 1:46. Right there, I felt like they should have hurried up and ran the next play. If they couldn’t make 12 yards in two plays, then maybe they could use their three timeouts to get the ball back for a second drive.

But when you use the timeout, you are basically putting the game all on this drive, and a false start only made it worse to bring up third-and-17. Then a 4-yard completion burned a second timeout for the Titans, and now the game was going to be decided on a fourth-and-13. I thought that was managed poorly.

Dobbs threw well short of the sticks and the play gained 9 yards before the Titans turned it over on downs. Game over. Jaguars win the AFC South and their biggest game since the 2017 AFC Championship Game. Jaguars come back from 2-6 to 9-8 while the Titans lost seven in a row after a 7-3 start. We’ll see if Mike Vrabel doesn’t fall on the sword for this slide. They already canned the general manager (Jon Robinson) in December.

The Jaguars are going to have to play better to beat the Chargers, but that should be a much more offensive game than this one. Tennessee was tough against the run and the Jaguars only had 10 handoffs for 22 yards. Look for much more from Travis Etienne against the Chargers.

But yeah, I did not credit Lawrence for a fourth-quarter comeback in this one since the game-winning score was fully provided by the fumble touchdown. It clearly was not a game-winning drive either. I’ll have to consider working on a no contest column after this game in the offseason. Similarly, Kirk Cousins should get a no contest for his 4QC attempt against Buffalo since the go-ahead score was that fumble return touchdown. Games like this are tricky and they seem to be popping up a little more frequently these days.

Just protect the ball, guys.

Rams at Seahawks: Playoff-Bound Geno

Before this season, Geno Smith had three fourth-quarter comeback wins in his career, but he had two huge ones this year against the Rams to help push the Seahawks (9-8) into the most unexpected playoff spot of the season.

The Seahawks had to come back in the fourth quarter against the Rams to win 19-16 in overtime, then needed to watch the Lions upset the Packers at night to get the job done for the playoffs.

It didn’t seem likely when the day started, but what has ever seemed likely with this Seattle team? From Geno making the Pro Bowl and leading the NFL in completion percentage to Kenneth Walker quite possibly winning Offensive Rookie of the Year – he was my pick at +3000 odds in an August article – to winning four more games than Russell Wilson’s Broncos to losing home games against the Raiders and Panthers, this season has been crazy for Pete Carroll’s group.

Baker Mayfield threw up a prayer in overtime that was intercepted, and from there, Seattle drove into field goal range to let Jason Myers redeem himself from missing off the upright to end regulation with a 32-yard field goal to win the game.

The Seahawks are going to be a double-digit underdog in San Francisco next week, but you never know against a rookie quarterback in a division game.

Crazy to think we may have seen the last of Sean McVay coaching the Rams (5-12) in this game too. Big changes coming there.

Jets at Dolphins: Can We Just Throw the Baby Out with the Bath Water Here?

I’m sorry, but Skylar Thompson vs. Joe Flacco in a 6-6 game in the fourth quarter just reeks of irrelevant end to the season for AFC East Stooges rather than a postseason-clinching game.

But this is where we were after Miami’s five-game losing streak. They got the proper help from the Bills beating the Patriots, and they just needed to beat the lowly Jets.

As much as I didn’t want to see overtime either, I wish the refs didn’t feel the need to call a phantom horse collar tackle.

That wiped out a third-and-7 situation and put the Dolphins inside the Jets 40. Four plays later, the Dolphins hit a 50-yard field goal to take a 9-6 lead with 18 seconds left. The Jets tried the lateral play, but all it did was go down as a safety, giving the Dolphins (-3.5) perhaps the most unearned, inexplicable cover of the season in a 11-6 final.

Miami gets the rubber match in Buffalo next week. They probably will give the Bills a better game than the Steelers would have, but if Tua Tagovailoa cannot go, then it is not an attractive matchup in my book. The AFC East was awfully close to sending just one team to the playoffs, but we’ll see what the Dolphins can do in Buffalo.

Ravens at Bengals: The Settled AFC North

We can stop talking about the coin flip and unsettled AFC North race. The Bengals won it fair and square this year after beating the Ravens 27-16 in a slog of a game that saw 28 total possessions between the teams.

The Bengals quickly led 17-0, but things did not come easy for the offense after that. They were fortunate to be facing third-string rookie quarterback Anthony Brown, who threw two early picks before hitting some big plays later.

Really, I’m not looking forward to seeing these teams match up a third time next week in Cincinnati. Not unless Lamar Jackson makes his return, but even then, given his playoff history and more than a month of missing practice, how good can he be? I think the Bengals could have held back and ran a fake game plan in this one to still get the easy win. I’m not expecting much from the Ravens next week.

Patriots at Bills: New England Never Stood a Chance

While it was likely hard for the Bengals to take the field of the site of Monday night’s tragedy with Damar Hamlin collapsing with cardiac arrest, imagine the emotions going through Buffalo players on Sunday. Fortunately, they got the best news possible on Hamlin this week, and they were able to put on a show with him following along on social media.

Nyheim Hines put his name in the history books by returning the opening kickoff 96 yards for a touchdown, the kind of thing you could only script if we’re being honest. Then he did it again later for a 101-yard return just 13 seconds after the Patriots took their only lead of the game. There were four kickoff return touchdowns all season before Sunday, and Hines just added a pair himself. Incredible stuff.

And yes, this is just the second time under Bill Belichick that the Patriots have allowed two special teams return touchdowns in a game. The last was against the 2015 Eagles and those were both related to punts (one return, one blocked punt return).

The Bills needed this too after a shaky start with back-to-back turnovers between the quarters. But Josh Allen found some big plays and continues to be one of the toughest quarterbacks Bill Belichick has had to defend. He finished with 254 yards and three touchdown passes, including a dagger to Stefon Diggs for 49 yards on third-and-10 to take a 35-23 lead in the fourth quarter. That stood after Mac Jones tossed two picks, including a deflected one in the final minutes.

For the third year in a row, the Bills emphatically beat the Patriots late in the year to show who runs the AFC East now. This is technically the second season in a row the Patriots were eliminated from the playoffs with a loss against the Bills.

The Bills are the No. 2 seed, will probably be the last 13-3 team we ever see, but they are still in position to do what they wanted to do all along this year. The AFC Championship Game will even be played at a neutral site should it be Bills vs. Chiefs again.

Something tells me that crowd will be heavily tilted to Buffalo no matter where the game is played.

Browns at Steelers: Pittsburgh Bests Cleveland for 30th Straight Season

What does that title mean? Since 1990, the Steelers have finished ahead of the Browns in the final regular-season standings in every season for a total of 30 straight. Remember that the Browns did not exist in 1996-98 before coming back in 1999.

When you get to face a sack merchant like Deshaun Watson, it was kind of inevitable that Pittsburgh would pull this off. I called it months ago:

I did not call for a 9-8 season and nearly sneaking into another postseason, but that happened too. The Steelers finish the season allowing no more than 17 points in seven straight games, their longest streak since 2001.

It was not the prettiest win. Diontae Johnson came up just short of a touchdown, making scoreless history with the most targets (147) and catches (86) in a season without a touchdown catch. Kenny Pickett also failed to throw multiple touchdowns in any game this season, though he did find George Pickens on a 31-yard score in this one – only the second offensive touchdown that occurred outside the red zone for Pittsburgh in 2022.

Watson took seven sacks, and it could have been several more if he wasn’t elusive. But on one sack, he was clearly pulled down by the facemask, yet no flag was thrown as if the referee acknowledged who he was, sided with the dozens of accusers, and said to hell with this predator. I can’t say I didn’t laugh my ass off at that moment. However, if you ever wanted hard proof that make-up calls exist in major sports, watch the roughing the passer call on Cam Heyward they later bailed out Cleveland with to make up for that missed facemask. Total bullshit.

The fact that came the drive right after the missed facemask makes it such a clear case of a make-up call. The Browns would get a touchdown to make it 20-14, but for Pickett’s inaccuracies on the day, he was money on every third-and-long down the stretch. The Steelers scored to put it away at 28-14, just the second time all season they scored more than 24 points.

At the end of the day, losing 16-10 in Miami was a killer for the Steelers’ wild card hopes, but I think this team would have been smoked in Buffalo next week anyway. I’m mostly just mad that they let Zach Wilson and the Jets score two touchdowns in the fourth quarter in Week 4. That was the real kick in the nads this season.

It was a weird season for the Steelers. They beat Brady, they beat the Raiders, they split with every AFC North rival, and yet they still missed the playoffs despite a 9-8 record to extend to a 19th straight non-losing season, tied with the 2001-19 Patriots for the second-longest streak in NFL history.

Expectations should be higher next year. As for Cleveland, what a joke Watson was this year after Jacoby Brissett played so well. Believe it or not, Brissett is going to finish No. 8 in QBR (59.7) this season. Watson did not qualify with enough attempts, but his 38.6 would have ranked 27th between Aaron Rodgers and Russell Wilson.

Yeah, it’s been a wild year for many around the NFL. But at least we still have the standard of Pittsburgh finishing ahead of Cleveland in the AFC.

Chiefs at Raiders: Quick Work

The first game this weekend had some of the least drama as the Chiefs made quick work of the Raiders to wrap up the No. 1 seed in a 31-13 win. No 17-0 comeback this time. No 30-29 finish. No 37-34 shootout between Jarrett Stidham and Patrick Mahomes like Stidham had with the 49ers’ top-ranked defense a week ago. No, just domination by the Chiefs, who had six sacks.

The game was a letdown in that regard as you would have thought it’d be more dramatic with the way these teams played so many close games. It was only the second time this season the Raiders were not in a one-score game in the fourth quarter.

The Chiefs no doubt picked on an easy schedule down the stretch and took full advantage of the Bills-Bengals cancellation to get to 14-3 and the No. 1 seed despite losing to the next two seeds. But one thing I will say about the AFC West race that never materialized is that the Broncos (5) and Raiders (6) both finished with as many wins as they had blown leads in the fourth quarter. Those teams were absolutely underachievers, but they were also much better than their records.

Things could improve quickly with better coaching in 2023, though it seems like McDaniels will be safe in Las Vegas. I’m not sure how – just losing to Jeff Saturday should be a firable offense.

Giants at Eagles: No. 1 But Not Dominant

Jalen Hurts returned after a two-game absence for his shoulder injury, but it was not the most inspiring 22-16 win over a Giants team playing a bunch of backups and the Eagles favored by 16.5 points at home.

You could twist yourself into a pretzel debating if the game’s final score was indicative of the closeness, but you cannot deny Hurts showed some rust and it just wasn’t that impressive of a win given who New York was playing, including Davis Webb at quarterback. It was the first game all season where Hurts did not throw or run for a touchdown, though Boston Scott scored another one to prove he is the Giants Killer.

But the Eagles let a 19-0 game get to a miracle onside kick recovery away from being really interesting at the end. Ultimately, they are still the No. 1 seed, but I will take the 49ers over them in a playoff game, and I still think Tampa Bay will beat this team if they match up in the divisional round.

Cowboys at Commanders: Howell Bad Was Dallas?

I did not watch a lick of rookie quarterback Sam Howell in the preseason, but I know his stats were impressive and likely the result of good work. Granted, we’ve seen fool’s gold from rookie quarterback preseason stats before with Blake Bortles and Daniel Jones, so take those with a grain of salt.

But if I was given a choice of Carson Wentz or Sam Howell to start against the Browns last week, I would have gone to Howell no doubt. You know how I feel about Wentz. He’s the guy you go to if you don’t want to advance in the playoffs. If he played this game, I doubt he wins it too.

We have our first .500 team in the 17-game era as Washington’s upset win produces an 8-8-1 record. It was an upset with Dallas favored by 7.5 points on the road, and even if the Cowboys were not properly motivated, this performance was a shit show. They were trying to become just the seventh team to score 27 points in a 10th-straight game, but they couldn’t even get to 7 points this week.

Prescott threw another pick-six and was 14-of-37 for 128 yards. This was even worse than the performance he started the year with in Tampa Bay in Week 1’s 19-3 loss.

Oh yeah, it’s finally time for the playoff matchup I’ve been talking about since October. Is there any doubt the Cowboys are going to shit the bed in Tampa Bay with turnovers and lose that game too? I don’t even think they should be favored at this point.

Cardinals at 49ers: Ready to Break the Glass Ceiling

Watching Brock Purdy throw multiple touchdown passes in six straight games while Kenny Pickett couldn’t do it once this year in twice the games is frustrating. You can’t just put it all on scheme and weapons either. George Kittle caught 11 touchdowns this year, most of them from Purdy in the last month, and he never had more than six scores in a season before 2022. It just seems like Kyle Shanahan trusts this rookie in a way he didn’t trust Jimmy Garoppolo.

But we’ll find out plenty in the weeks to come with Purdy in the playoffs as he attempts to become the first rookie quarterback to start (and win) a Super Bowl. He’s already seen Seattle’s defense once and did fine in that game, but we’ll see how it goes. Being the No. 2 seed is pretty good this year in the NFC as it likely means Seattle, Minnesota, then possibly hosting Tampa Bay, the team they were up 35-0 on a few weeks ago.

This could be the year we see a rookie quarterback in the Super Bowl, and let’s face it, in the first 56 seasons there were almost no situations this advantageous between the weapons and defense around a rookie quarterback. No one would really blink an eye if he wasn’t Mr. Irrelevant and a third-string rookie quarterback.

As for Arizona, a miserable season, but salute to J.J. Watt on an incredible career. One of the best to ever do it and he was a force down the stretch this season. Injuries are the only thing that slowed him down.

Buccaneers at Falcons: Stats Over Winning, Eh?

The Buccaneers were my upset pick this week, because there was no way Tom Brady was going to play in a game just to accumulate some meaningless counting records for most pass attempts and completions in a season just because he throws the ball more than anyone in 17-game seasons.

No way was he playing for records over not having his first losing record (8-9) or suffering his first loss against an Atlanta team he was 11-0 against.

But it happened. Even when Brady could have come in at the Atlanta 22 after his defense forced a fumble in a 10-10 game in the second quarter, he stayed on the bench while Blaine Gabbert came in to lead that short-field touchdown drive. It would be the last score of the game for the Bucs, who also played Kyle Trask in the fourth quarter of a 30-17 loss. Total preseason approach.

The Buccaneers finish with a losing record and Brady’s first loss to the Falcons. I’m still stunned that happened. At least Desmond Ridder finally threw the first two touchdown passes of his career, and rookie running back Tyler Allgeier had a big game to finish with over 1,000 rushing yards.

But the Bucs are still beating Dallas next week. Just accept it. It’s inevitable.

Chargers at Broncos: Who Was Brandon Staley Trying to Impress?

You could argue Brandon Staley did as poor a job as anyone in managing their team’s situation in Week 18. He is new to this postseason thing, but Staley came into the game locked into the No. 5 seed and going to Jacksonville next week. I’m not one for blowing these games off with 60 minutes of rest, but you have to keep the big picture in mind at some point.

It’s not like the Chargers were getting productive minutes out of this game. They lost Mike Williams to injury in the second quarter. That’s tough to blame Staley for, though he has been an injured player this year and probably should have been made inactive in the first place. But the Williams injury should have been a reminder to not push for this one, and to definitely not have Keenan Allen in the game late in the fourth quarter catching a touchdown pass from Chase Daniel in a losing effort.

Like, what the hell was the point of that? It’s not like he was trying to get to 1,000 yards on the season or anything. Asking Justin Herbert to throw nearly 40 passes in three quarters of action was just insane on Staley’s part, and all the Chargers got out of it was a loss, no momentum going into next week, and possibly a big injury to one of their best receivers. Not good.

Meanwhile, I got burned badly riding with Russ this season in Denver, but this game was the kind of player I expected to see show up more often. Wilson had three completions of 50-plus yards on his way to 283 yards and three touchdown passes. It was the first time all season the Broncos scored 30 points.

Depending on the head coach hire in Denver, I’ll probably pick them again next year to do well. The jokes have been there all season, but I think we’re underestimating how quickly they could turn things around with the right coach. This team blew five fourth-quarter leads and had plenty of talent on injured reserve. Let’s not bury Wilson’s career just yet.

Vikings at Bears: No. 1 Pick Belongs to Chicago

Unlike the Chargers, the Vikings did this right by getting good work in for the starters before resting and winning comfortably, 29-13 for a change, against the Bears. They even won big without intercepting Nathan Peterman, who started in place of Justin Fields, once on 19 passes. Tim Boyle played too and played the role of Peterman better than the OG himself, throwing two picks on eight passes.

With the Chicago loss and Houston win (thanks, Lovie), the Bears hold the No. 1 pick with a 3-14 record. A lot to say about this going forward, but I think you have to at least work out and interview the top quarterbacks, including Alabama’s Bryce Young. It’s a really bad look for Fields to get drafted high in 2021, then two years later you are picking No. 1 in the draft with him there. That’s not normal nor is his lack of passing production.

Interesting times ahead in Chicago with major cap space and draft capital.

Texans at Colts: Lovie Smith’s Last Victory for the Bears

The Texans already fired Lovie Smith on Sunday night, not even waiting for the clock to strike on Black Monday as it’s known around the league. I wouldn’t have hired him in the first place, but that makes two years in a row the Texans went one-and-done on a coach. That’s some Jim Tomsula/Chip Kelly stuff there (2015-16 49ers).

But I hope it was an act of defiance and a nod to his old team in Chicago that Lovie played for the win in his final game even though it would hand over the No.1 pick in the draft. He’s not losing to a chump like Jeff Saturday, who only beat a bigger chump in Josh McDaniels in his first game coaching.

The Texans led by 10 points multiple times but sure seemed to be in tank mode after back-to-back interceptions by Davis Mills, including a pick-six. The Colts took a late 31-24 lead and it would have been very easy for the Texans to come up short while looking like they tried everything to win.

Maybe that was even the plan, but the Colts kept giving up fourth-and-long conversions. The worst was a fourth-and-20 when an Indy defensive back made Rahim Moore look competent by going up for an interception, seeing the ball go through his hands, and landing in the end zone for a 28-yard touchdown with 50 seconds left.

Of course you go for two in this situation, and even then the Texans could have intentionally ran a garbage play to secure the No. 1 pick. But they converted and held on for the 32-31 win.

The Texans finish 3-13-1, edged out by the Bears and their 3-14 record. The Bears even beat Houston way back in Week 3, so you can say Lovie gave them two gifts this season.

Was it worth it? We’ll see if someone offers a king’s ransom to the Bears for that top pick. Lovie wasn’t a good hire, but they gave him a terrible team to work with. It was a no-win situation this year.

Panthers at Saints: They’re Going to Do This Shit Again Next Year, Aren’t They?

I’d prefer to pretend this 10-7 game didn’t even exist, but I guess I have to cover Sam Darnold getting a game-winning drive in a game where he was 5-of-15 for 43 yards, two interceptions, and a 2.8 passer rating. Yes, 2.8.

This was about the worst outcome possible for the NFC South if you wanted to see major changes next year. Just the last two minutes alone encapsulate why these teams need to clean house at head coach and quarterback. Darnold threw a pick, the Saints totally botched the situation and burned 16 seconds before having a 55-yard field goal blocked, then Darnold made one completion that set up a game-winning field goal with no time left.

It is the first Carolina game-winning drive since September 29, 2019. The streak of 50 straight losses when trailing in the fourth quarter still stands and will have to be broken next season. But if the Panthers keep the same coach and quarterback, it may not end again.

With the bottom three teams finishing at 7-10 and Tampa Bay at 8-9, watch them all think this is fine because they “were close” to winning the shit division. So, they’ll stick with Steve Wilks and Sam Darnold in Carolina, Andy Dalton and Dennis Allen in New Orleans, Arthur Smith and Desmond Ridder (better argument there at least) in Atlanta.

Why would Brady bail on that division when it’s practically a free ticket to a home playoff game in a sad conference? Look at the AFC where seven first-round quarterbacks are in the playoffs, and someone like Kenny Pickett is going to want to crash that party next year. Don’t sleep on Russell Wilson turning things around with a new coach either, and Bryce Young might still end up in Houston.

The NFC is a con and I expect this postseason to play out accordingly. Bet on the LOAT now if you want the best price you’re going to get.

Next Week

  • PLAYOFFS!?
  • A 3-0 sweep coming for the Seahawks at the hands of San Francisco?
  • Was 38-10 a rib-injury influenced fluke between the Chargers and Jaguars?
  • Can Tua Tagovailoa (or at least Teddy Bridgewater) return for the playoffs in Buffalo?
  • Will the Giants finally put an end to Minnesota’s close-game win streak?
  • Can Lamar Jackson return for the playoffs, and will he actually play well this time?
  • How badly are the Cowboys going to implode in Tampa Bay on Monday night? Thank Christ that game will not have Tony Romo on the call. I’ll Manning Cast the shit out of this one.

NFL Stat Oddity: Week 14

~ scottkacsmar ~ 8 Comments

If Baker Mayfield can put together two fourth-quarter touchdown drives 48 hours after joining a wounded roster, what’s holding the rest of the league back? The only fourth-quarter lead change on Sunday involved the 1-win Texans blowing a late lead to the 17.5-point favored Cowboys.

It was one of the least dramatic days of NFL action we have seen in some time. The seven comeback opportunities (six on Sunday) are tied for the fewest in a week this season. But some of the opportunities weren’t even that good with teams like the Ravens and Panthers just running the clock down on the Steelers and Seahawks after drives earlier in the quarter failed.

Beyond that lack of fourth-quarter drama, most of the best teams won again (Eagles, Bills, Chiefs, Cowboys, Bengals, 49ers, Ravens).  

A strong contender for worst week of the season so far. Hard to believe there are only four left in this regular season, and the next two weeks will split up the action with Saturday triple-headers.

This season in Stat Oddity:

Dolphins at Chargers: The Uncomfortable Justin Herbert Conversation

I was able to write the other 10 recaps during Sunday Night Football, and after taking a break to watch The White Lotus S2 finale, I’m still not sure what the hell was going on in Los Angeles tonight.

It was a game without a turnover, yet one of the pivotal plays was a fumble at midfield that just so happened to be picked up by Tyreek Hill for a 57-yard touchdown return.

Tua Tagovailoa went from being one of the most accurate quarterbacks in the league this year to staring down a start that had him 3-for-17 for 25 yards more than halfway through the third quarter. Then he found Hill down the sideline and 60 yards later it was a 17-14 game.

So, it felt like there was some Chargering in store for us, but 43 yards away from the lead in the fourth quarter, Tua threw his Tom Brady in Super Bowl XLVI pass into the dead sea way down the field with no one in sight. He was slapped with an intentional grounding penalty, which brought up third-and-19 to kill that drive.

The Chargers went on another long drive with Herbert throwing darts that ended short of the end zone, but at least this one still put a field goal on the board despite a scary fumble at the 6-yard line with just over four minutes left. The Chargers were able to recover and saved the field goal for a crucial 23-14 lead.

Miami did not have the greatest of response drives, but the Dolphins were able to convert a 55-yard field goal to keep the game alive with 1:10 left. Hope finally ran out after the onside kick failed, but not before a nice bounce that at least made it dramatic. But the Chargers recovered, and it was over at 23-17.

Herbert is now 9-0 when the Chargers allow fewer than 20 points. I think the main takeaway from that stat is that they’ve only held nine of his first 45 opponents under 20 points.

There is still enough season left for the Chargers (7-6) to be that 11-win team many of us thought they should be this year. It will take more efforts like this, though it’s not like the Chargers were on top of their game here. They gave up two big touchdowns to Hill and somehow turned 39 completions from Herbert to 23 points. Watching a quarterback throw the ball 51 times in a game where he never trailed and his team allowed 17 points is weird. That’s Brady stuff.

But they looked better than Miami, who got a 10-of-28 for 145 yards game out of Tua. Nearly half his yards came on that one pass to Hill. Is there an injury throwing Tua off his game the last two weeks? Something is off.

All I can safely conclude is that these two teams are in a tier below the Bills, Chiefs, and Bengals in the AFC.

Texans at Cowboys: Texas-Sized Upset Narrowly Avoided

Well, that was a hell of a lot closer than it should have been. The Cowboys were a 17.5-point favorite at home against a Houston team that was 1-10-1 and was alternating Davis Mills with Jeff Driskel at quarterback.

Had Dallas lost, you’d have to go back to 1977 to find a bigger upset by point spread when the Patriots lost 24-14 to Buffalo as an 18-point favorite. The last 17.5-point favorite to lose in the NFL was the 2020 Rams against the Jets. The 2019 Patriots also did it in Week 17 at home against Ryan Fitzpatrick and the Dolphins in a game that cost them a first-round bye.

This would have been more embarrassing given the record of the Texans, their quarterback situation, and just how hot the offense has been for Dallas.

But the Texans have not been allowing many offensive touchdowns in recent weeks, and that showed up again here. Tony Pollard had a couple early scores, but he finished with just 42 rushing yards. In between their second and final touchdown, the Cowboys had two field goals, two interceptions, two punts, and Ezekiel Elliott was stuffed at the 1-yard line on the team’s only full third-quarter possession.

Dak Prescott has been a little sloppy with picks this season, and it looked like he threw one with 5:37 left that was going to bury the Cowboys who were already down 23-20. The Texans returned the pick to the 4-yard line and could go up two scores. But it was a bad run by Rex Burkhead that lost 2 yards on third-and-goal at the 1 that put the Texans in trouble.

If you’re going to do this Driskel QB runs thing, why not use him on third-and-1? I agree 100% with Houston going for the fourth down even after losing two yards, but it ended up being another bad call with Driskel looking confused on the designed run. The Cowboys stuffed him, and Prescott had his shot at redemption from 98 yards away with 3:20 left.

Prescott had 15 game-winning drives in his first three seasons (2016-18), but we have seen very little of this from Dallas in the last four seasons when he has just four game-winning drives (including this one).

In fact, this game was the first time all year the Cowboys had a fourth-quarter comeback opportunity. They were down too many points in the fourth against the Buccaneers (lost 19-3) and Eagles (lost 26-17) for those games to qualify. They were technically never down in the fourth quarter or overtime when they blew a 28-14 lead in Green Bay and lost 31-28 in overtime. This was the first one all year, and Dak made sure it was a success with his arms and legs.

Michael Gallup looked like he had a 2-yard touchdown catch, but a good hit when he landed dislodged the ball and made the play incomplete. The Cowboys went to old reliable on third down in Elliott, and he was able to cash it in this time for the go-ahead touchdown with 41 seconds left. Dallas finally led 27-23.

Mills got the ball out to midfield, but his deep shot was intercepted in the end zone to end the game. Mills is a better quarterback for Houston than Kyle Allen, but it was still a surprise it was this tight.

Many of us thought the Eagles were disappointing in how they played in Houston when they won 29-17 on a Thursday night. But this? I think this game gives me the validity I need when I say the Cowboys are going to lose in Tampa on Wild Card Weekend in the 5-4 matchup in the NFC. I hope they prove me wrong, and a win is a win, but this was frighteningly too close to a loss for me.

Eagles at Giants: Philly Increases the Gap in Best Division

Welp, so much for the Giants forcing Jalen Hurts into a bad game like they did last year in a 13-7 upset at MetLife. The versatile Eagles passed for 156 yards in the first half and rushed for 192 yards in the second half in a 48-22 rout of the Giants.

The Eagles scored touchdowns on their first three drives, effectively winning the game at 21-0. The Giants took seven sacks and only managed a garbage-time touchdown in the last minute when trailing 48-14.

Not surprisingly, once the schedule changed for the Giants to where they couldn’t win close games against mostly bad teams, the wins have dried up. As for the Eagles, I’m not sure what more you can say about this team. They are more balanced between offense and defense and the run and pass as any team in the NFL right now. Their stars have mostly been healthy. They were slipping a bit against Washington and Indy, but the offense has been money the last three weeks.

I guess we’re just waiting for that Christmas Eve game in Dallas to see if this team shows any cracks. It won’t happen in Chicago next week.

Buccaneers at 49ers: 35-Oh You Don’t Deserve a Home Playoff Game

Now if only Kyle Shanahan had this kind of knockout punch for Tom Brady in Super Bowl LI with Atlanta…

The 49ers were starting rookie quarterback Brock Purdy for the first time, but he looked more than ready for the opportunity. Purdy finished 16-of-21 for 185 yards, two touchdown passes, and he ran for a short touchdown. He showed good poise and accuracy. He led the 49ers to at least 23 points for the second week in a row. Brady has led the Buccaneers to 23 points just once in 13 games this year.

It was another lousy game for the Buccaneers. It was also just the second time in Brady’s career (376 starts) where a team scored more than 31 points against him before he ever got on the board. The only game worse than the 35-0 start Sunday was that 38-0 run the 2020 Saints put on him in a prime-time game the Saints won 38-3.

This time, Tampa’s only score came on a deflected touchdown at the goal line. But there would be no collapse this time. Brady continued to throw almost each play in the fourth quarter down 35-7, and the drive stalled with another failed fourth down with 8:40 left. The teams just went through the motions after that.

The 49ers are still going to be a major threat with Purdy, especially if he can play like this with any consistency. But it was not a perfect day for the 49ers as Deebo Samuel was injured in the first half and carted off. Initial reports are optimistic that it won’t be a season-ending knee injury, but we saw how that goes with the Von Miller injury on Thanksgiving.

The 49ers are still a force with an offense led by CMC, Brandon Aiyuk, and George Kittle, but Samuel is the edge they need when they play a team like the Eagles or Cowboys in the playoffs. Hopefully his season isn’t over, but the cart is rarely good news.

But at least this game gave me some confidence that should these teams meet again in the playoffs, the 49ers should win barring a collapse from Purdy with turnovers. This Tampa team stinks, and if it wasn’t for the incompetence of the division and the way the Rams and Saints blew those late leads, this team would be 4-9 at best right now with Cincinnati up next.

In fact, this game just makes me more pissed off about what the Saints did Monday night, because this division should be a four-way tie at 5-8 right now. Tampa would probably still win it in that scenario, but it’s blasphemous that any of these teams get a home playoff game.

Chiefs at Broncos: Shaky Chiefs Win 14th Straight Against Broncos

It is a shame Russell Wilson had a concussion in the fourth quarter, because this first meeting with Patrick Mahomes’ Chiefs as a member of the Broncos was in an odd way his best game this season.

It was looking like the lowest point yet when the Chiefs took a 27-0 lead after a great defensive play on a pick-six put the Chiefs up big. But Mahomes got a little careless on a few picks up big, Jerry Jeudy went nuclear on the field and turned his anger into three touchdown catches, and the Broncos were right back in this game in a hurry after scoring a season-high 28 points.

But it was a fourth-quarter scramble where Wilson picked up 14 yards on a third-and-11 that he hurt himself. He banged his head on the ground and the bump was very visible. He also looked like he had no idea where he was on the ground. It was a scary moment, but he was able to walk off the field. Brett Rypien came in and fired the third touchdown of the day to Jeudy on a fourth down to make it 34-28 with tons of time (10:49) left.

These Chiefs rarely make it easy anymore. The teams exchanged some three-and-outs, then Mahomes threw his third interception of the game. When it looked like Rypien had his shot at the go-ahead drive, he was hit in motion and the pop-up was picked off with 4:21 left.

Mahomes had a key third-and-11 conversion to Marquez Valdes-Scantling for 20 yards, then Isiah Pacheco iced the game with an angry 10-yard run.

The Chiefs escaped Mile High with a 34-28 win, eliminating the Broncos from the playoffs and handing them a 14th straight loss in this rivalry.

Despite the highlight-worthy touchdown toss to Jerick McKinnon early in the game, Mahomes likely did himself no favors for the MVP race. But he did throw for 352 yards and three touchdowns. All three times in his career when he’s had three picks, he’s also had at least 350 yards and multiple touchdown passes. The Chiefs have also scored at least 30 points in all those games.

Jets at Bills: Defense Frustrates Allen Again, But Familiar Story on Offense

We should probably give the Jets some credit for their defense this year after holding the Bills at home to 20 points, 2-of-13 on third down, and just 232 yards of offense. The Bills already had a season-low 317 yards in the first meeting with the Jets, but this was worse in some wintry conditions with rain/snow coming down.

This game was scoreless late into the first half until the Bills got the Jets to jump offsides on a fourth-and-1. That led to an incredible 24-yard touchdown catch by Dawson Knox.

Mike White took some big hits in this game and left at one point in the third quarter. Joe Flacco came in and coughed up the ball on a strip-sack. The Bills turned that into a field goal and 17-7 lead. The next Flacco drive was a three-and-out that the Bills also turned into good field position and another field goal (20-7).

White returned, and after the punt team got a safety by blocking a Buffalo punt, it was Michael Carter’s turn to screw things up with a fumble inside the Buffalo 25 with 5:34 left. White, who has passed for over 250 yards in every start he’s finished, eventually got the Jets on the board with a field goal to make it 20-12 with 1:18 left.

The Bills went three-and-out after a brazen pass attempt on first down fell incomplete, saving the Jets a timeout.  But by the time White finally got a comeback opportunity, he was down 20-12 with 46 seconds and 79 yards to go and one timeout.

He threw four straight incompletions with his fourth-down pass batted down at the line to end the game. The Bills hung on, but it was far from pretty.

Ravens at Steelers: Son of a Mitch

You just had to expect the Steelers would turn the ball over in this game. They weren’t going to be the 10th offense in the Super Bowl era to go five straight games without a giveaway. That’s some Alex Smith type stuff there (three of the nine teams had Smith at quarterback).

But who imagined Kenny Pickett would leave early after another concussion, and Mitch Trubisky would throw three awful picks, including two in scoring territory? Those plays were the game as the Ravens didn’t do a lot in the passing game with Tyler Huntley starting, getting injured, and undrafted rookie Anthony Brown having to finish the game.

But the Ravens ran 42 times for 215 yards and the Steelers could rarely stop it. After the Ravens blocked a 40-yard field goal in the fourth quarter to hold on to a 13-7 lead, they pounded ahead for their own field goal, and you know Justin Tucker was good with 3:19 left to make it 16-7. J.K. Dobbins was a factor in his return with 120 yards on 15 carries.

Trubisky was 22-of-30 for 276 yards, but those three picks were killers. While he did lead a late touchdown drive to give the team a chance at 16-14 with 2:30 left, the defense was unable to get the ball back. Gus Edwards plowed ahead on three straight runs for the game-clinching first down.

In the seven games where Huntley has at least 20 action plays, the Ravens are now 3-4, but the shocking part is the seven games have been decided by a total of 13 points. It’s always super close, which can be said for most Steelers-Ravens games too. But that’s why you can’t piss away three possessions with turnovers like Trubisky did.

Would Pickett have been better in the game? I’m not so sure he has been aggressive enough lately to hit some of the big throws Trubisky did in this game to the wide receivers. But obviously the mistakes were too much to overcome.

Vikings at Lions: The Close Game Win Streak Still Lives

As someone who does not like the NFL’s new playoff format, the 2022 Vikings may be the first team to make me glad the No. 2 seed no longer gets a first-round bye. If the Vikings even hang onto that seed, the fact is they are the first 10-3 team in NFL history to have a negative scoring differential. They are -1 now after a 34-23 loss in Detroit where the Vikings were an underdog despite having five more wins on the season than the Lions.

On the plus side, the close game winning streak is still alive at nine games. This game did not have an official 4QC opportunity. The Vikings were down 21-13 going into the fourth quarter, but the Lions had the ball and extended the lead to 28-13 with another touchdown on a day where Jared Goff (330 yards and three touchdowns) was hot.

Kirk Cousins threw for 425 yards and didn’t get any help from Dalvin Cook, who was held to 23 yards on 15 carries and had a big fumble in the red zone.

Justin Jefferson had a career-low 14 yards against the Lions earlier this season. He went almost 200 yards beyond that with a career-high 213 this time, but that slow start by the Vikings never kept them close enough to steal another win.

Even after Minnesota scored a late touchdown to cut it to 31-23 with 2:50 left, the Lions converted a third-and-7 with a neat pass to Penei Sewell, an offensive lineman. That led to another field goal and the 34-23 lead that made sure this would finish as a two-score differential and that Cousins would never have the ball down one score in the fourth quarter.

So, the Lions by 1-13 points proved to be a great pick, but we’re technically still waiting to see the Vikings lose a 4QC/GWD opportunity and/or blow a 4Q lead this year. But the Lions are playing well right now with only a close loss to Buffalo since the start of November.

Browns at Bengals: Burrow Gets His Cleveland Win as Predator Sequel Flops

Joe Burrow finally has his first win against the Cleveland Browns in his fifth try, and Kevin Stefanski has his first loss against Cincinnati in his sixth meeting with the in-state rival. We can stop talking about the Browns having any playoff hopes this year. They should have kept starting the quarterback who doesn’t need supervision when he gets a massage.

The secret sauce to Cleveland’s flawless record against Burrow was getting big plays out of the quarterbacks even when those quarterbacks were Baker Mayfield and Jacoby Brissett. In those four games, the Browns averaged 36.3 points and 10.8 yards per pass attempt.

On Sunday, the Browns scored 10 points on 11 drives. The offense only had one 25-yard play, and that was a 28-yard completion in the fourth quarter on a drive that ended with a failed fourth down.

Nick Chubb was held to 34 yards on 14 carries, the first time he was under 100 yards against Burrow’s defense.

Burrow was not at his best with 239 yards, but he only took one sack this time, and the Bengals lost Tyler Boyd and Tee Higgins to injury during the game. Ja’Marr Chase was great with 119 yards and a touchdown. The Bengals also hit a 45-yard touchdown on a flea-flicker to Trenton Irwin.

The Bengals are 9-4 and keeping pace with the Ravens in the AFC North. The Browns are 5-8 and will face the Ravens on Saturday. It was a good win for the Bengals to get over this annoying Cleveland hump.

Panthers at Seahawks: Second Episode of “Let Geno Cook” Bombs

Regardless of record, some opponents are just bad matchups. I picked Carolina ATS because I knew the Seahawks were at a big disadvantage in the ground game. The Panthers like to pound it with D’Onta Foreman and Chuba Hubbard, and the Seattle run defense has been bad for most of the year. Kenneth Walker and DeeJay Dallas were out for Seattle, leaving the offense very limited at running back.

Geno Smith was going to have to carry the offense for the second week in a row, and despite finishing with 264 yards and three touchdowns, he also had some turnovers. But despite trailing 17-0 early, this was still a 20-17 game going into the fourth quarter. The Seahawks had the ball but unlike last week when Geno worked some rare (for him) late-game magic against the Rams, he was buried on a third-and-10 sack.

The Panthers kept the ball on the ground instead of going to the air with Sam Darnold like they mistakenly did on a goal-to-go sequence that failed in the third quarter. The end result was a touchdown and 27-17 lead. Another three-and-out by Seattle, another time-killing drive with the run by Carolina, and this one was all but over at 30-17 with 1:56 left. The Panthers were a bit lazy on defense with the 13-point lead, the most dangerous lead in football this month, but Geno’s 24-yard touchdown pass to Marquise Goodwin left only 24 seconds to recover an onside kick and set up a Hail Mary.

Onside kicks are now 3-for-40 this season after Carolina recovered to end the game at 30-24. The Panthers had 46 runs for 223 yards while Sam Darnold only had to throw 24 passes. That’s their formula. The Seahawks had 11 handoffs for 26 yards. They’ll be better when Walker comes back, but with the 49ers up next on a short week, the playoffs might be slipping away for Seattle.

Jaguars at Titans: Remember When the Titans Were Good?

Firing your GM on the first Tuesday in December can never be a good thing, but the Titans have lost the plot to this season with a third-straight loss. We thought the Eagles lighting them up for 35 points last week was just a result of the Eagles playing well and A.J. Brown making sure to embarrass their ass. But this was Trevor Lawrence, with almost no running game to speak of (22 carries for 53 yards), just tearing the defense apart with 368 yards and three touchdowns. You could argue he’s had his two best games in the last three weeks between this and the Baltimore comeback.

The turning point came at the two-minute warning in the first half. The Titans were up 14-13 and Derrick Henry caught a pass near the red zone. But he fumbled and the Jaguars turned that into a 78-yard touchdown drive. They took a 20-14 lead into the half and never looked back. The Jaguars were up 36-14 in the fourth quarter after Henry lost a second fumble. After one more touchdown, the best Tennessee could do was turn it over on downs while trailing 36-22.

The Titans probably are not in danger of blowing this division yet, but they are looking like an easy playoff win for a team like the Dolphins or Ravens/Bengals runner-up right now.

Next Week

  • All for seeing more Brock Purdy on Thursday night in Seattle. Big chance to all but put away the NFC West.
  • I was hoping to catch up on some TV this Saturday, but the NFL is giving us a triple-header that is less than exciting. Dolphins-Bills at night is the highlight.
  • Not looking forward to Steelers-Panthers one bit.
  • You know it’s a bad Sunday slate when the Giants-Commanders rematch is probably the highlight of the day.
  • Maybe Joe Burrow can definitively pull the horseshoe out of Tom Brady’s ass and assume the mantle of the LOAT for the next two decades.

NFL Stat Oddity: Week 13

~ scottkacsmar ~ 10 Comments

I knew Sunday was going to be a pivotal one in the NFL, but no one could expect so many quarterback injuries. The 49ers got the worst of it with Jimmy Garoppolo’s broken foot, but we could be seeing the beginning of the end for Lamar Jackson and the Ravens this year, opening the door for the Bengals to take the division and possibly the No. 1 seed.

The Chiefs fell. The Dolphins fell. Anyone who loved the chalky Super Bowl of Bills-Eagles, which looked so good for the first few months, had a great weekend as that looks as likely as ever.

But the season can turn in a snap. The 49ers found that out the hard way on Sunday.

It was a day with nine comeback opportunities in total.

This season in Stat Oddity:

Chiefs at Bengals: Three for Three by Three

Imagine losing to the same team by three points three times in the same calendar year, and they’re not even in your division. The only way it could happen is if you met in January, rematched in the playoffs, then met again the following season as the Chiefs and Bengals have done.

The Chiefs already have their hands full with Josh Allen and the Bills. How do we expect them to get back to a Super Bowl if they can’t beat Joe Burrow and the Bengals too? There’s really not a path in the AFC playoffs where they can avoid both.

The Bills and Bengals are both young, cocky teams who only gain more confidence each time they knock off the Chiefs. Meanwhile, the Chiefs these days go as Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce go. On Sunday, Kelce had a poor game. Who is going to step up to help him out? Not this guy. The Chiefs do a lot of talking, but it’s a flawed roster with a lot of players trying to piggyback off the success of the best quarterback and tight end in the league.

On a day when CBS’ Jim Nantz and Tony Romo decided to have an ill-timed dynasty discussion about the Chiefs in the first quarter, the Bengals showed once again why that talk is neither valid nor necessary in 2022.

The Chiefs came into Week 13 with a defense ranked No. 23 in points per drive allowed. After a 27-24 final in which each offense only had eight possessions, that number is only going to get worse. This is not a championship-caliber defense, and the Bengals were the latest talented offense to expose it with no turnovers, only one sack surrendered, and 7-of-11 on third down.

The Bengals even helped the Chiefs out with an awful play call on fourth-and-1 before halftime and Tyler Boyd dropped a wide-open touchdown in the third quarter, leading the Bengals to settle for a field goal.

In a game with so few possessions, every mistake would be magnified. Kansas City’s fourth drive lasted just 49 seconds before halftime as the Chiefs simply ran the ball twice deep in their own end. When you only let Mahomes touch the ball seven times, and you end two of those drives with a fumble and missed field goal, your chances of winning are slim to none with this defense.

But the Chiefs did take a 24-17 lead into the fourth quarter after Mahomes barely broke the plane by going vertical on a fourth-and-3 run for a touchdown. They had a chance to build on a 24-20 lead in the fourth quarter, but after having such a quiet game, Kelce tried to get extra yards in traffic, and the Bengals stripped him before he was down for a huge fumble at midfield.

The Bengals turned that into the go-ahead touchdown and 27-24 lead. The Chiefs needed an answer, but pressure short-circuited the drive with Mahomes losing 4 yards on a third-down sack, the second third-down sack in the game. I did not notice the Bengals using a lot of the three-man rush from the second half of the AFC title game, but it did pop up on one third down when Mahomes held the ball forever and a 34-yard gain was wiped out by multiple linemen being illegally down the field. If they frustrated him in this game, it was usually timely on a couple third downs, which is sometimes all you need in a game with eight possessions.

Harrison Butker had a tough job on his hands, and his 55-yard field goal was wide right with 3:19 left. The Chiefs had four clock stoppages left, but do you trust this defense? The Bengals didn’t even play it that great with Ja’Marr Chase, who caught almost everything in his return game for 97 yards, going out of bounds twice, Burrow taking a bad sack, and the Bengals needing to overcome a third-and-11 at the two-minute warning.

But on that third-and-11, the Chiefs seemed to slow up at Burrow’s right side on a quick rush, and he got the pass off on time and accurately to Tee Higgins for 14 yards and the conversion. Game over. Another 27-24 final but done dramatically different from the AFC Championship Game, which had 21 possessions from the two teams.

Chase and Valdes-Scantling each had two 20-yard plays, and they were the only such plays in the game. Kelce provided the obligatory Chiefs fumble this week, and it was a costly one.

With the remaining schedule, the Chiefs could still finish 14-3 and get the No. 1 seed if the Bills slip up once. Two games against Denver and one with Houston could get the defense up to middle of the road in scoring.

But when push comes to shove against the best of the best in the AFC, it doesn’t feel like these teams have to prove they can beat the Chiefs anymore. Since losing their last Super Bowl appearance, the Chiefs are 1-6 against the Bills, Bengals, and Ravens.

The next time a booth wants to do a dynasty discussion, I hope they start on that note, but I have my doubts. Just as I’m going to have my doubts the next time the Chiefs go into a big game against the Bills or Bengals.

Dolphins at 49ers: Great Defense Beats Great Passing Offense Again

This was another one of the day’s letdowns as it could have been a shootout between Tua Tagovailoa and Jimmy Garoppolo. Instead, the Dolphins got the quick strike with a 75-yard touchdown on the opening play before doing little on offense the rest of the way. The 49ers got a field goal, but Garoppolo broke his foot on a sack on that opening drive, so his season is over too.

Enter Brock Purdy, Mr. Irrelevant from this year’s draft. He was more than respectable given his lack of experience as he threw the first two touchdowns of his career. The 49ers were not afraid to let him throw 37 times too. He was able to convert some third downs while the Dolphins were 0-for-7 on third down.

I went from skeptical to impressed by Tua this week, but it seems like any time I write something nice about a player I usually don’t praise, he proves in the very next game why I’ve been right to cover him the way I have. His accuracy was bad in this game, because the Dolphins were getting their receivers open against this vaunted defense. Jaylen Waddle was also injured and only caught one ball, which didn’t help matters. The Dolphins also conceded they wouldn’t be able to run on the top run defense, so the running backs only had 8 carries for 33 yards.

Tua was going to have to be sharp in this one, and he just wasn’t. But after one quick strike to Tyreek Hill for a 45-yard touchdown, this was just a 23-17 game with most of the fourth quarter left. The 49ers’ second-half shutout streak ended at four games.

But when Tagovailoa got the ball back, he just had to convert a fourth-and-2 at the San Francisco 36 with just over six minutes left. Somehow, the officials ruled Mike Gesicki made a 3-yard catch when it was pretty clear he never had control of it. The 49ers challenged a completion for the second time on this drive, and for the second time it was correctly overturned. You never see two challenges work on the same drive for the same play type.

The Dolphins fell apart after that failed conversion. Deebo Samuel and Christian McCaffrey ripped off big runs and that led to a field goal that was all but clinching with 2:03 left to make it 26-17. Nick Bosa buried Tua in motion on a strip-sack that was returned for a touchdown and could have seriously injured the quarterback. That’s how the 49ers turned a game where they were 36 yards away from trailing in the final minutes to a 16-point knockout.

But it is a real bummer to have a Super Bowl-ready roster and to lose two starting quarterbacks well after the trade deadline has passed. No rookie quarterback has ever started a Super Bowl, and I’m not sure Purdy has the right stuff to break that glass ceiling. The team is reportedly adding Josh Johnson, but he has played for more NFL teams (14) than he has touchdown passes (13).

If Nick Mullens can throw for a historic number of yards under Kyle Shanahan, then maybe they can figure things out with Purdy. He’ll have the best defense and arguably the best set of skill players at his disposal. But the chances of going on the road in the playoffs and winning somewhere like Philadelphia? Just dwindled. Even the division isn’t safe anymore after the Seahawks won in LA.

It sucks because I really wanted to see this Garoppolo situation through this year and what they would do if he was in a third NFC Championship Game and second Super Bowl in four seasons. Now it’s a the third-string rookie quarterback.

Colts at Cowboys: 50 Burger on SNF?

Hard to believe the Colts were a failed two-point conversion away from taking a 21-21 tie into the fourth quarter. Still, at 21-19, you could not have imagined a 33-0 run by Dallas in the fourth quarter for a 54-19 win (first of its kind). This is only the fifth time in NFL history a team won a quarter with a shutout of at least 33 points:

The Colts were the only team in the NFL this season that had not allowed more than 27 points in any game. The Cowboys doubled them up on that, and they had 33 in one quarter.

It was as if the competitive game no one expected ran its course, then the fourth quarter was an overcorrection to the mismatch this looked like on paper with Dallas’ offense being too much for Indy, and Dallas’ pass rush being too much for Matt Ryan and the line.

The Colts turned the ball over on four consecutive drives in the fourth quarter to fuel that 33-0 run, including a Mo Alie-Cox fumble that was returned for a touchdown.

The Cowboys now have the two-highest scoring games this season at 54 and 49 points. They look Super Bowl ready when they do this stuff, but the more you look at the schedule, the more likely it appears they are going to start their playoff run as the No. 5 seed in Tampa Bay, the NFC South winner. That’s the defense that made Dak Prescott look so bad in Week 1 that this figured to be a lost season for the Cowboys.

Some revenge would be sweet in that one, but you could see it going terribly wrong too in a low-scoring mess. But Dallas has plenty of time to get this machine ready for a playoff run. The news out of San Francisco is making it likely that Dallas is the best team outside of the Eagles in the NFC.

Jets at Vikings: Mike White Got That Feral Cat in Him

It was technically a wire-to-wire win for the Vikings, because they never trailed, but it was another close win in the end for Minnesota. The Jets outgained the Vikings by 199 yards, but 1 yard in particular is going to haunt the team from coming up short in the latest chapter of the Mike White story.

Down 27-15 in the fourth quarter, White scored on a 1-yard touchdown run on a fourth down with 6:45 left, leaving plenty of time to complete the comeback. But after getting to the 1-yard line again with a second down, the Jets ended up inexplicably throwing two more passes and turning it over on downs after Braxton Berrios failed to hang on to White’s fourth-down pass in the end zone.

Didn’t anyone watch TCU this weekend, or the previous drive in this game for that matter? Run the damn quarterback at the goal line. It’s a cheat code, but the Jets didn’t do it, and they paid for it.

They still got the ball back with plenty of time (1:19 to drive 43 yards) to complete the comeback, but the drive stalled with White throwing four straight incompletions from the Minnesota 19, including a pick on fourth down that he just forced out.

White passed for 369 yards, but it took 57 attempts this week. It was a bit miraculous for the Jets to be so close after going 3-for-16 on third down, but they just needed a better series of calls at the goal line.

Titans at Eagles: Great Day for Philly

Did any team have a better day than the Eagles? They scored five touchdowns against a Tennessee team that only allowed more than 22 points in one game this season. They shut down Derrick Henry (11 carries for 30 yards), which has been the case for nearly a month now for the Titans. Jalen Hurts had one of his finest games ever with 380 yards and three touchdown passes.

The Eagles are just the third team in NFL history to rush for 350 yards and pass for 350 yards in consecutive games (in either order according to Elias). The A.J. Brown revenge game was very successful with 119 yards and two touchdowns.

Blasting the Titans with Ryan Tannehill 35-10 is an impressive win. The Eagles (11-1) are on the road the next three weeks and we’ll see how those division games go, but this looks like a very complete team. Dallas might be the only real contender in Philadelphia’s path to the Super Bowl now that Garoppolo is done in San Francisco.

Commanders at Giants: Ties Are for Losers

A tie between division rivals who are battling for the playoffs? Well, that’s as annoying as it gets. But the Giants really should have won this one. It was an awful time to take a taunting penalty when the Giants could have kicked a field goal to take a 23-13 lead in the final minutes. Instead they punted.

The defense collapsed on the ensuing drive. I have to say I would have punted on fourth-and-4 at my 27 with 2:47 left if I was Washington. You don’t convert there, and the game is all but over, but Ron Rivera rolled the dice and Taylor Heinicke extended the play to make it happen for a 20-yard gain. Three plays later, Washington was in the end zone to tie it.

The last seven drives never really materialized for either team. Maybe the Giants should have gone for a fourth-and-3 at the Washington 45 with 1:42 left in overtime, but I guess they saw value in playing for the tie. When they got the ball back with 28 seconds left, Daniel Jones was able to set up Graham Gano for a 58-yard field goal as the final play. Tough kick but he’s made longer.

The field goal was short, and it’s just another game like most overtime ties where a game-winning field goal was missed.

But with the Giants (7-4-1) and Commanders (7-5-1) in a heated playoff race, a tie just feels extra wrong in this scenario. I’m going to say advantage Commanders though. They didn’t take the loss after trailing 20-13 late, they get a bye week now, and they get the rematch at home in two weeks.

The Giants may still ultimately get in the playoffs, but they could be kicking themselves for not closing this one out properly. Unlike those pesky Vikings, the Giants seem to have used up their magic beans in close games before Halloween.

Seahawks at Rams: Bobby Wagner Revenge Game Spoiled by Rare Geno Comeback

Linebacker Bobby Wagner was in Beast Mode against his former team with two sacks, three tackles for loss, and an interception that defied logic late in the third quarter. I sure thought there was evidence of the receiver being down before Wagner ripped the ball away. This would have been a more controversial call if the Rams weren’t suffering the worst Super Bowl title defense in NFL history.

 But the Rams turned that into a field goal, the Seahawks matched, then the Rams took a surprising 23-20 lead late after backup John Wolford led a 75-yard touchdown drive capped off by a 6-yard run by Cam Akers.

Geno Smith was having a fine game, but he was 3-15 in his career at fourth-quarter comeback opportunities, one of the worst records all time. But on this day without any Aaron Donald to worry about, Geno was able to get it done with his receivers having big days. DK Metcalf caught the 8-yard laser for the game-winning touchdown with 36 seconds left to put Seattle back on top at 27-23.

Wolford chucked up an ugly pick out of desperation on fourth-and-20 to end the game. The Rams are 3-9 and moving in on the worst record ever for a defending champ.

The Seahawks (7-5) may have saved their season and kept hope alive for winning the NFC West, especially after the Garoppolo news in San Francisco. The teams will meet again in Week 15 on a Thursday in Seattle with the Seahawks looking for a split.

Just the fourth 4QC win of Smith’s career may go down as a big one for this season’s story.

Chargers at Raiders: Vegas’ Two-Headed Monster Impresses

You might see 27-20, Justin Herbert with 335 yards, and think another AFC West shootout. But that really was not the case. The Raiders played some great defense in this one as Derek Carr had a pick-six early, so the Vegas defense held Herbert to 13 points, sacked him five times, and forced a fumble from Austin Ekeler. It was a very fine performance on that side of the ball for the Raiders, which have been hard to come by this year.

These teams came in ranked 26th and 29th in points allowed in the same exact spots they ranked last season. But the Raiders got it done this week. On offense, you have to liked the simplified approach after sending Hunter Renfrow and Darren Waller to injured reserve after disappointing seasons. This offense is thriving with basically a two-headed monster of Davante Adams (177 yards and two touchdowns) and Josh Jacobs (144 yards and a touchdown). You know where the ball is going, yet these guys have rarely been stopped as the Raiders have won three in a row.

Not that there’s any consolation prize, but I think the Raiders (5-7) are the best team in the NFL with a losing record right now. This team would be right in that playoff mix without all the blown three-score leads.

As for the Chargers, I just wonder how hot that seat is going to get for Brandon Staley if this thing continues going south. The Chargers (6-6) are now the No. 9 seed with the Dolphins and Titans up next.

Broncos at Ravens: Déjà vu?

The quickest get-rich scheme in the NFL this year would have been to bet the house on the under hitting in every Denver game. You’d be 11-1 right now. The 2022 Broncos are the first team in NFL history to score between 9-23 points in their first 12 games. Only two teams in NFL history have had a longer streak at any point in a season or multiple seasons.

The latest embarrassment is a 10-9 loss to Baltimore with Lamar Jackson exiting early with a knee injury. The Broncos blew their fourth lead in the fourth quarter, but it’s hard to say an offense that scores 9 points deserves to win the game. Denver was 2-of-12 on third down.

Tyler Huntley replaced Jackson as he did last year, and he had a very amusing game: 27-of-32 for 187 yards, interception, 10 runs for 41 yards and the game-winning touchdown run with 28 seconds left. So many short plays, but he found a way to put together a 91-yard drive at the end. Of course, it would have been a four-and-out if Mark Andrews didn’t make a great effort on a fourth-and-1 direct snap from under center to convert at the Baltimore 18. Game over if that play fails with the Ravens down 9-3.

Still, it’s hard to feel good about the win for the Ravens with the offense continuing to underperform and losing Jackson. They also needed Brandon McManus to come up short on a 63-yard field goal to avoid another bad loss. The kick was straight enough. Just not deep enough.

Worse, is history repeating itself? The Ravens were 8-4 last year, then Jackson was injured early in the Week 14 game against Cleveland. John Harbaugh was calling it a day-to-day injury and acting like Jackson could be back the next game. He never played another down, the Ravens lost their last five games to finish 8-9, and the team missed the playoffs.

It could very well be Tyler Huntley in Pittsburgh next week against a team that is gaining confidence. Harbaugh is acting like Jackson did not have a serious injury, but here we go again in Baltimore.

Hurry-Up Finish

We’ll conclude with four games that really do not matter for the playoff races. It is December, so you can expect to start seeing a smaller word count on teams like the Texans, Bears, and Jaguars.

Browns at Texans: Allen vs. Predator Is a Flop

This game was fucking gross on multiple levels. The only way it would have been worse is if the Browns had a good record and were right in the playoff hunt, and they benched Jacoby Brissett for this.

I bet Brissett wouldn’t have thrown that horrible red-zone pick. I bet he would have led an offensive touchdown drive or two. I bet the offense would have fed Nick Chubb properly instead of trying to get their new predator at quarterback comfortable in the offense even though the running game would have destroyed Houston.

It’s a good thing the Texans started Kyle Allen, because the Browns were able to return two of his turnovers for touchdowns. The special teams also got the scoring going with a 76-yard punt return touchdown. Six points on 12 drives for Watson, and one of those field goals was a drive with no first downs. Brilliant stuff.

I think I’ve made it clear in the past that I think the contract Cleveland gave Deshaun Watson is disgusting. Make him earn his way back to big money like Philadelphia did with Michael Vick, someone who actually served his time and showed remorse for what he did. All the Browns did was empower Watson with one of the richest contracts in history, and he still doesn’t think he did anything wrong.

Watson finished 12-of-22 for 131 yards, his second-fewest yards in a start. He’ll get a pass for rust, which is valid. But he only has himself to blame for why this was his first start in the last two seasons.

Packers at Bears: He Still Owns Them

Aaron Rodgers is 25-4 in games he starts and finishes against the Bears. That now includes seven game-winning drives, matching the seven he has against the Lions for his most against an opponent. Fourteen of Rodgers’ 32 game-winning drives are against the Bears and Lions.

If there was a perfect game for the Bears to rough up Rodgers and send him packing with a losing record, it was this one with Green Bay at 4-8 and Rodgers leaving last week’s game with a rib injury.

But even after leading 16-3 in the first half, leading 19-10 to start the fourth quarter, getting 254 passing yards out of Justin Fields to go along with his usual rushing output (71 yards and a touchdown), it still wasn’t enough for Chicago. The Packers got their running game going, Rodgers came through late, the special teams blocked a 40-yard field goal, the defense intercepted Fields just outside of scoring range, and Christian Watson showed off his big-play ability with a 46-yard touchdown run at the two-minute warning.

The Bears are now tied with the 1950 Redskins for the second-longest losing streak in NFL history with at least 125 rushing yards in each game. That streak is at six games. The record is 11 games by the 1976-77 Bills.

Once again, the Packers beat the Bears 28-19, the only team they’ve been able to beat by more than three points in their last 15 games. If this is the last time they see Rodgers, they should be happy about that.

Fittingly, the win was Green Bay’s 787th in the regular season, surpassing the Bears for the most wins in NFL history. It is the first time the Bears have not held that record since 1921. Maybe they take that crown back soon enough if this is the end of the Rodgers era, but if the Chicago offense keeps closing games like it has this year, even the Jordan Love era might add on to this lead.

Steelers at Falcons: If We Can’t Cancel the NFC South, How About Benching Mariota?

Yes, I ended up watching the entire game. Pittsburgh’s offense once again looked competent with no turnovers, a productive ground game, and Kenny Pickett doing just enough for a win. Nothing spectacular but much better than where they were before the bye. Najee Harris really does look like a different player since the bye. Still not worth a first-round pick but doing his best to shed the T-Rich comparison.

But I think the Falcons need to bench Marcus Mariota after this one. He was getting a lot of open looks on play-action passes, Drake London was getting open, and Mariota’s accuracy was poor for much of the game. His pass protection mostly held up well too. He’s just not much of a passer and needs to be on a team with a No. 1 defense if they’re going to win games.

Mike Tomlin made a pretty wise decision late in the game to punt with a 19-16 lead instead of trying a 53-yard field goal to take the dreaded 6-point lead with just under a minute left. It helped that the punt was great and pinned Mariota at his own 2 from where he promptly ended the game with a pass intercepted by Minkah Fitzpatrick.

The Steelers (5-7) have their first winning streak in 2022 and would win the NFC South this year if they were eligible to. Just need to beat Carolina to complete the division sweep.

Jaguars at Lions: Back to Square One for Jags

I thought Jacksonville being favored earlier in the week was a huge overreaction to Week 12. By game time, the Lions were a 1-point favorite, and they made quick work of Jacksonville in a 40-14 win. When Jared Goff is on, this offense is well built and fun to watch. Didn’t even think about the DJ Chark Revenge Game, but he had 98 yards to go along with Amon-Ra St. Brown’s two touchdowns.

The good news for Jacksonville is Trevor Lawrence avoided a season-ending injury after a nasty twist on a takedown. He ended up finishing the game after that. Lawrence has yet to miss a start from injury, but this one was a close call.

Next Week

  • Island games (LV-LAR, LAC-MIA, NE-ARI) look bad even though we know the Chargers will find some interesting way to lose SNF.
  • Of course Garoppolo breaks his foot right before the 49ers are going to face Tampa Bay…
  • It looks like division games will have to deliver to save this week (Jets-Bills, Bengals-Browns, Eagles-Giants).

NFL Week 13 Predictions: Super Sunday Edition

~ scottkacsmar ~ Leave a comment

It’s about time we had a strong looking Sunday schedule in the NFL. The only shame is Chiefs-Bengals and Dolphins-49ers are in the same window and neither game gets a national platform. Why didn’t they flex out Cowboys-Colts? Christ.

Not to oversell it, but these two games could have a significant impact on the races for the No. 1 seed in the AFC, the AFC East, the AFC North, and the MVP race.

If the Chiefs get past the Bengals, they really could go 15-2 as their only other game left against a team with a better record than 4-7 is a home battle with the Seahawks where KC will be favored for sure.

We get to see what the Chiefs learned from the AFC Championship Game, their second blown lead of 14+ points against the Bengals last year. Patrick Mahomes played the worst half of his career after the Bengals used a three-man rush and he repeatedly held the ball long and made bad decisions. I’m surprised this hasn’t been a dominant strategy against the Chiefs this year. Double Travis Kelce and only rush 3-4 while making them beat you with the other guys, who aren’t consistent. Maybe the Bengals do it again, and they are likely getting Ja’Marr Chase back on offense. just in time. Should be a good one.

As for the Dolphins-49ers, it’s a fantastic matchup of great offense vs. great defense plus the whole mentor/assistant coach angle between Kyle Shanahan and Mike McDaniel. I’ve actually been warming up to going with the Dolphins to win this one, if only because I expect the 49ers to disappoint in big games, and I think McDaniel may be smart enough to realize they’re not going to run the ball well in this game and adjust accordingly. Plus, I’ve been doing some digging into Tua this week and definitely went from skeptical to impressed. But the odds are stacked against him as they usually are when a quarterback on a team with a weak running game takes on a top-ranked defense on the road. But it is easier to win such a game in the regular season than in the playoffs.

Some of this week’s articles:

NFL Week 13 Predictions

The Bills came through on Thursday night, though I thought we’d see a few more points than we did.

I’m riding with Mike White to end the Vikings’ close-game win streak. Jets by 1-13 will be something I play several times.

I think the Jags lose a high-scoring game this week after winning their first in multiple years last week.

Counting on a huge game from Nick Chubb in Kyle Allen vs. Predator in Houston.

Taking the Giants to get back on track as we’re getting too used to Washington winning and I still don’t think the team is that good.

Is it just another boring Aaron Rodgers vs. Justin Fields game in Bears-Packers? This would be the moment for the Bears to come through and defeat Rodgers in a big way, but this team just stinks more than Green Bay. Packers until proven otherwise.

All I’ll say about Monday night is we’ve seen the Bucs host the Saints in prime time two years in a row. The Saints won 38-3 in 2020 and 9-0 in 2021 in two of the most dominant defensive performances you’ll ever see against a Brady-led team. The Saints don’t look capable of doing it this year, but after losing 13-0 in SF last week after a 24-0 win over the Raiders a few weeks before that, who knows anymore? It’s not like Tampa looks good.

I’ll aim for more sleep but it’s looking doubtful.

NFL Stat Oddity: Week 10

~ scottkacsmar ~ 12 Comments

My expectations were for a pivotal Sunday in the NFL, and the games did not disappoint. We saw two overtime games that should be significant, including one of the all-time craziest fourth quarters in NFL history in Buffalo.

There were five teams that blew a double-digit lead this week. That’s the most since Week 5 of the 2020 season also had five, but these were games with crowds. No pandemic football.

In total, nine of the 13 games featured a comeback opportunity. If certain teams fall apart or go on a run from here, we are going to look back at this Week 10 as a crucial week to crafting this season’s narrative.

One thing I’m positive of: the longest drought in NFL history without a repeat champion will continue. The 2022 Rams are 3-6 and you can send them fishing. Given I had them still capturing the No. 1 seed this year despite not repeating, that is going to go down as one of my worst final record predictions.

This season in Stat Oddity:

Vikings at Bills: The Day the MVP Went Away

Instead of trying to take in everything that happened in one of the most chaotic fourth quarters in NFL history, I think we have to start with the big picture of what this game has done to the 2022 season’s narrative.

Maybe I didn’t believe it myself, but last week I said this game could dramatically change the shape of this season.

The races in both conferences: Buffalo has gone from the No. 1 seed to the No. 6 seed just like that. Meanwhile, the Vikings are 8-1 and running away with the NFC North.

The Super Bowl odds: Buffalo has been the favorite all year long, but you might see that change for the first time here with the Eagles and Chiefs starting to look like more attractive options.

The MVP award: Yeah, I think Josh Allen just destroyed his chances there. Six interceptions since the Kansas City win. Three straight games with multiple picks. One of the closest blunders to Joe Pisarcik.

Now our expectations for how we view the Vikings and Bills might change.

At least, my Buffalo views are souring after these last 10 quarters. They seem to be doing the same thing as last year where they peaked with the win in Kansas City, seemed to think that was the Super Bowl, and now they’re struggling in games they shouldn’t be. The elbow injury wasn’t enough to stop Allen from playing, and I’m not ready to accept that as an excuse when it was the egregious decision making and not the physical aspect of Allen’s game that blew this one.

But have my views changed on the Vikings, now 8-1, being a legit contender and vastly improved team this year? Um, no. Not really.

As I have said in past weeks, I still am seeing largely the same Minnesota team we always get, but things keep happening for them in close games, and not always by their own actions. The Vikings are now 7-0 in close games, including a 5-0 record at 4QC opportunities. This is unreal stuff from a team with a quarterback we never see this from.

If you think I’m going to let one of the silliest fourth quarters of all time change my mind on this team, then you’re crazy. For almost three quarters, this was textbook Minnesota in a big game, just like the Eagles loss in Week 2. The Vikings were down 27-10, the defense was getting shredded, and Kirk Cousins had multiple interceptions.

We’ve seen this story before. But this time, Dalvin Cook immediately broke an 81-yard touchdown run, the longest of his career. That was huge.

But okay, the Bills kept driving after that and were ready to go back up 17 points. I loved going for the fourth-and-2. Get it back up to 17, three scores, and don’t go for the 13-point lead and open yourself up to losing by a point. But Allen, as he has been doing since the second half against Green Bay, did not deliver. He panicked under pressure, and since it was fourth down, he had to do something, so he tossed a pick to Patrick Peterson in the end zone. Bad play and bad call only needing two yards and not the full seven for a touchdown.

But then the Vikings had to survive two fourth-down conversions just to keep the game going with another touchdown drive. They did it, and C.J. Ham scored a 3-yard touchdown run. But the Vikings missed the extra point to keep it a 27-23 game, because they are the same Vikings.

Granted, terrible three-and-out by the Bills that barely took any time off. But here is where the game was ultimately decided. The Vikings needed a go-ahead touchdown drive, and in the typical Cousins fashion, it was not going well. He took two sacks, including one by Von Miller to set up fourth-and-18. That’s a game-winning situation for a championship-aspiring defense. Period.

But instead of stopping them there, the Bills try to intercept Cousins’ miracle heave to Justin Jefferson, and the defensive back actually helps Jefferson secure the unbelievable catch for a 32-yard gain to extend the game. That should have been the game. Score some big points for the “knock it down” crowd, because by putting those two hands in there to go along with Jefferson’s one, it helped Jefferson get more grip on the ball and come down with it. Huge mistake.

But even after the miracle catch, the Vikings blow it. Jefferson is short of the plane to bring up a fourth-and-1. Cook drops a possible touchdown on a play where Buffalo was offside that would have counted as a touchdown if he scored. I actually agreed with the quarterback sneak by Cousins, but you have to do the Drew Brees one where you stick the ball out to break the plane, then pull it back. Cousins just didn’t get any push and he was down short of the end zone with 49 seconds left.

Once again, that should be the ballgame. Now, the Bills shouldn’t take an intentional safety in a 4-point game, because then you can lose on a last-second field goal. They just need to push the pile forward a little and get some breathing room. Game f’n over. Vikings only had one timeout left.

Instead, we get the worst play by any offense with a lead in the last minute since Joe Pisarcik and the Miracle at Meadowlands. Somehow, Allen and his center botch the exchange and he fumbles the ball, shits down his legs, and fumbles the MVP for good this year. The Vikings recover for a touchdown and lead 30-27 with 41 seconds left.

Just inexcusable. To Allen’s credit, he does a great job coming back with a drive without any timeouts to force overtime with a game-tying field goal. However, that probably shouldn’t have happened the way it did. Gabriel Davis got out of bounds with a 20-yard catch, but I think he dropped that ball and it was incomplete. The Bills did a good job of getting to the line quickly and running the next play, but it’s outrageous the booth did not buzz down to review that crucial call. If the Vikings lost this game, they would have a legit beef there for sure.

But the Bills moved it 69 yards and tied the game for overtime, concluding one of the wildest fourth quarters in NFL history. These teams are known for a few wild ones, but I’d have to put this right up there with Bills-Chiefs last year (42-36), Vikings vs. Ravens in 2013 in the snow, 2003 Colts vs. Buccaneers in Tampa, and 2000 Jets vs. Dolphins on MNF. This is high on the list for sure.

We get to overtime and the Vikings receive. They overcome a strip-sack that could have killed them in their own end, then a bad throw gets bailed out with a DPI flag on second-and-22. The Bills do a good goal-line stand from the 2, forcing Minnesota into a field goal and 33-30 lead.

So, with 3:35 left, Allen can totally redeem himself here. But we know the Bills are a bit shaky in these situations, which is why I’ve compared Allen to 1990s Brett Favre multiple times. Two wild and crazy front-runners who are a mixed bag in these moments, and they come through far less than the average fan probably imagines.

Bad elbow or not, Allen had no problem scrambling for 38 yards on two plays to quickly get into scoring range. But after getting to the Minnesota 20, I’m not sure what he saw, but he threw a bad looking pick to Peterson again and the game was over. Peterson will come away from this one with a good highlight reel to lead his Hall of Fame montage.

The Bills blew a 17-point lead at home with a fumbled snap on a sneak the lowlight of a game they had no business blowing. They just blew a 14-3 lead in New York last week. They lost in Miami despite gaining nearly 300 more yards than the Dolphins.

This team is its own worst enemy, and I don’t know if Allen misses offensive coordinator Brian Daboll reining him in a bit. Maybe Ken Dorsey, the 2022 OC, is too soft on him and is letting him get away with reckless play the last three weeks. But something is just off here.

So, I am souring a bit on Buffalo and starting to wonder if Patrick Mahomes will ever have to play a road playoff game. The entire AFC East would be in the playoffs if they started today, and the Bills would only be the No. 6 seed. Insane change of events.

But am I on board with Cousins and Jefferson being the Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp of 2022 and believe they’re going to win a bunch of playoff games by three points and vanquish Tom Brady and the Eagles in January to get to the Super Bowl?

No, I don’t buy it. Not when you needed all of this to happen to get a win over a good team.

But are the Bills front-runners who you shouldn’t trust in the clutch? Oh indeed. Are the Vikings enjoying this 8-1 start after years of seeing games go the other way? For sure.

I’ll leave it at that for now, but this is one that will definitely be remembered for a long time. Glad to have experienced it live on TV.

Cowboys at Packers: He’s Still Aaron Rodgers, He’s Still Mike McCarthy

There is no team during the Aaron Rodgers era that the Packers have ripped the heart out of worse than the Cowboys. Not only were there the dramatic playoff wins in 2014 and 2016, but you had a late game-winning drive in a 2017 game, a turnover fest won in 2019, a 23-point comeback led by Matt Flynn in 2013, and now this game that can save Green Bay’s season and make a lot of people lose faith in Dallas being any different this year.

I really thought Rodgers would let hubris get the best of him and he would throw like crazy with Mike McCarthy coming back to town for his first game at Lambeau with favored Dallas, the better team on both sides of the ball.

But the Packers basically broke the glass casing around Rodgers in the second half and let him be the Dallas killer he is, and McCarthy stood there and took it on the chin as McCarthy-coached teams do in these situations.

Meanwhile, Dak Prescott has now thrown three touchdown passes in three different losses to the Packers, though this one was not his finest work. Dak had 113 yards on 25 passes at halftime with two bad picks.

The shocker was Rodgers throwing six passes in the first half and handing off 18 times for 83 yards. It makes some sense. The backs are better than your receiving corps (allegedly). The Cowboys have a strong pass rush. I can see it making sense.

But it didn’t look like it was going to work with CeeDee Lamb destroying the secondary and helping Dallas to a 28-14 lead going into the fourth quarter.

But Rodgers scrambled on a third down for a conversion and that seemed to get him going. He faced a fourth-and-7 in Dallas territory and threw his best pass of the day to rookie Christian Watson for a 39-yard touchdown. That was the game changer. Rodgers showed a ton of trust in a rookie he has barely got to play with due to injury or him making mistakes that would make a veteran distrust him.

The Cowboys ended up going scoreless on their last four drives. Rodgers tied the game with his third touchdown pass of the game to Watson with 2:29 left.

The game went to overtime and I wasn’t really feeling it when Dallas wanted the ball first, but I understand why you make that call in Green Bay. A holding penalty really put Dallas in a bind and set up a fourth-and-3 situation at the Green Bay 35.

I must say I liked the decision to go for it. The field goal doesn’t end the game. It’s not even a guarantee to be made as Brett Maher is no Justin Tucker. A miss there would be awful in giving Rodgers the ball at his 43. I liked going for it, but the Cowboys just didn’t execute the play and Dak was nearly sacked before throwing up a miracle that wasn’t answered.

The Cowboys were about to blow a 14-point fourth-quarter lead for only the second time in team history. You may recall the first coming against Rex Ryan and Mark Sanchez’s Jets in 2011 on Sunday Night Football.

This was probably worse since it can motivate Green Bay to go on a run instead of being left for dead with a sixth-straight loss. All Rodgers needed was one vintage throw to Allen Lazard for a 36-yard gain and that had the Packers in range. Mason Crosby was good from 28 yards on the field goal and the Packers pulled it out, 31-28.

We’ll see how big this one can be as Green Bay (4-6) gets an important head-to-head tie-breaker over Dallas (6-3) now. We’ll see if Watson builds on this three touchdown performance. Rodgers only threw 20 passes in the game. He’s only had two games in his career that he played into the fourth quarter with fewer pass attempts than he had on Sunday. But the backs delivered with 203 rushing yards.

In some ways, it was unlike any Rodgers game we’ve seen before, and yet because it was him sticking it to Dallas and McCarthy taking a bad loss, it was still very familiar football theater.

Chargers at 49ers: The Never Above .500 Club

Justin Herbert (0-4) and Kyle Shanahan (0-5) are now a combined 0-9 in games where they have a chance to go above .500 in their career records in the NFL for the first time.

With the Chiefs up next for the Chargers, it could be a few more weeks before Herbert gets there. But the Chargers put on a decent effort for most of the game while being outmatched and shorthanded.

Now that Shanahan is 48-48 with a trip to Arizona next, maybe he’ll finally get above .500 in the next game. Or the team will lose it after some inexplicable calls.

But that defense was nasty after halftime. The Chargers didn’t have a play longer than 12 yards after halftime. On five second-half possessions, the Chargers punted three times, turned the ball over on downs, and Herbert threw an interception on the first play of the final drive in the last minute.

I still pound the table that the 49ers don’t really use Deebo Samuel the way they should, and you could argue his health may have limited his touches here after missing the last game. But in throwing Christian McCaffrey into the mix, I just think this offense has so many weapons that Shanahan gets confused on how to use them all. Elijah Mitchell returned at running back and got 18 carries for 89 yards to 14 carries for 38 yards from McCaffrey. Maybe that was the right call since the run looked better when Mitchell was given the ball, but that was a big trade to make for CMC.

This offense really needs to do more than 19 points and a fourth-quarter comeback in a game like this. The Chargers were outmatched and yet George Kittle got one catch, Samuel had two, and Brandon Aiyuk dropped a touchdown.

Every week it feels like there’s some excuse about a player returning from injury or someone learning the playbook or figuring out their role. I guess I just hold the talent involved to a higher standard and would like to see more from this team.

But at least they won. And they almost got one of the cheapest covers ever, but the Chargers are a tough team to beat by a big margin.

Seahawks at Buccaneers: Absolutely No Nazi Jokes Here

The NFL’s first game in Germany went from bad on paper in the preseason to decent on paper this week to not so great of an outcome. But it did at least produce a strong contender for funniest play of the year:

Tom Brady also threw a bad pick in the fourth quarter, but the Seahawks wasted the first half with terrible play on third down and no run game to speak of. It wasn’t until the fourth quarter when the Seahawks trailed 21-3 that Geno Smith started to look like the quarterback he’s been this season. He would lead two quick touchdown drives to make it 21-16 with an incredible pass on a fourth down to Marquise Goodwin for a score.

But in getting a second chance to salt away the game, Brady and the Buccaneers easily picked up four first downs to run out the final 3:55 on the clock. Call it a fake close game. Kenneth Walker was held to 17 yards on 10 carries while the worst-ranked rushing offense in football piled up 164 yards. Seattle had run defense problems earlier this season but it looked like it was turning the corner when the Seahawks held down Austin Ekeler and Saquon Barkley in consecutive weeks.

Alas, Brady had his defense and running game working for him in Munich. Julio Jones and Chris Godwin also caught touchdowns and the line didn’t give up a sack. It was probably the most complete game the Buccaneers played all season, and yet it was a 21-16 game with four minutes left.

But Brady running a route was something I did not see coming.

Jaguars at Chiefs: Low Drama Dissection

Kansas City’s 27-17 win over Jacksonville was by far the least dramatic home game for the Chiefs this year. Their first four home games were all decided by 1-to-4 points with the Chiefs often trailing, but this was a wire-to-wire win over a team not ready for shootouts. Still, it was disappointing to see the Jags fail to establish their running game with Travis Etienne after the tear he was on the last month.

Patrick Mahomes threw another four touchdowns and will likely take a big step forward in the MVP odds unless Jalen Hurts does something ridiculous on Monday night.

But my biggest takeaway is how stupid were the Giants to not find a role for wide receiver Kadarius Toney? He never seemed like a first-round pick they needed, and two coaching staffs never found a proper role for his talent. His health has been a problem, but if he can stay on the field, the Chiefs are going to love this dude.

Getting an expanded look with JuJu Smith-Schuster going out with a concussion, Toney scored his first NFL touchdown and finished with 90 yards on six touches, including a 32-yard rush. No other defense will leave him as wide open as he was on the touchdown play, but this is another toy for Mahomes to play with.

The rich really do get richer.

Colts at Raiders: Raiders Do Look Horrible

I’m amused and annoyed with this one. I thought the comedy factor would have been maximized if the Colts pulled this off with Sam Ehlinger at quarterback to go along with Jeff Saturday, the only coach in the last 60 years with no previous experience coaching in college or the NFL.

But if you told me Matt Ryan was going to start this game, I would have said Colts +4.5 was a great pick and they probably even win this game. The Raiders have been that bad at holding leads, and Ryan’s already led a bunch of comebacks this year. He never should have been benched for Ehlinger.

As it turns out, Saturday’s first big move was to put Ryan back in the starting role, and he waited until warm-ups to do it. We’ll need more games to figure out if Saturday is just a genius for this job, or if he was fortunate to catch the Raiders with his better quarterback playing and a healthier version of Jonathan Taylor. Both players were key in the win, and the Raiders might as well just forfeit the rest of season if you’re going to let old Ryan run for 39 yards like this:

Right after that play, the Raiders got Michael Pittman to fumble, which could have been crucial with the Colts down 20-19 in the final six minutes. But in trying to return the loose ball, the Raiders never got possession and Pittman got back on top of it. On the next play, Ryan found Parris Campbell on a short throw that looked way too easy turning into a 35-yard touchdown with 5:07 left. The Colts only allowed one sack in the game.

Like most Vegas games this year, it came down to Derek Carr trying to lead a game-winning drive. Like every game but Houston, it didn’t work out. Carr’s fourth-and-7 pass to Davante Adams in the end zone was defended well by Stephon Gilmore, and no flag was thrown. Both players were fighting with each other, so it was a good no call.

It hasn’t been pretty, but in eight games for the Colts, Ryan has already led five fourth-quarter comebacks (one tie) and four game-winning drives. Ryan’s 38th fourth-quarter comeback win ties him with Drew Brees for the fourth most in NFL history. Ryan’s 46th game-winning drive moves him out of a tie with John Elway for the sixth most in NFL history.

I would not be surprised if I wake up Monday afternoon and see Josh McDaniels got the axe in Vegas. The Davis family is not afraid of bold coaching moves, though nine games would be one of the quickest pink slips ever handed out to an NFL coach.

But is it not justified? He couldn’t beat the guy who was calling this team horrible on Twitter two weeks ago as part of his ESPN studio job. I don’t know how many more games Saturday will win with Indy, but I bet the tightly-connected network of NFL coaches hates this guy and is actively rooting for him to fail. Why? It would make them look silly when they try boasting about their profession where you have to work 100 hours and sleep in your office just so you can punt on fourth-and-1 or call a trick play to throw the ball to your 45-year-old quarterback.

Saturday knows football. Winning football at that. The knowledge alone does not qualify him to be a coach but understanding the game and being a leader should get you most of the way there. Look at McDaniels and his lack of leadership everywhere he goes any time he isn’t holding onto Bill Belichick.

The Colts are lucky McDaniels bailed on them in 2018.

Saints at Steelers: T.J. Watt and Andy Dalton Return to Pittsburgh

If T.J. Watt plays, the Steelers are more than likely to win. If T.J. Watt is out, the Steelers are almost certain to lose.

It shouldn’t be that cut-and-dry for a defensive player in 2022, but it kind of is in Pittsburgh. At least, New Orleans was a perfect opponent for the Steelers to welcome back Watt to face out of a bye week. Andy Dalton is now 3-14 in starts against Pittsburgh, and all he could muster was 10 points of offense in this one after he was intercepted and stopped cold on a fourth-down quarterback sneak in the fourth quarter of a close game.

But this was hardly a Watt masterpiece even though he made his presence felt a few times. It was also a good 2022 and team debut by safety Damontae Kazee, who made the fourth-quarter pick of Dalton in a 13-10 game after Kenny Pickett technically led the first game-winning drive of his career.

As for Pickett, it’s his first legit win since he was knocked out of the Tampa Bay game in the third quarter. It’s his first legit game of not throwing an interception as he made smarter decisions with the ball. He did take six sacks and was limping as the protection was not too good this week, but the run blocking showed up.

The Steelers rushed for 217 yards and even Najee Harris (99 yards) looked good. The Steelers had four different players register a 20-yard run, something the team hasn’t done in decades (if ever).

They won’t all be as easy as this one, but the Steelers proved again any quarterback can look more comfortable if you give him a consistent running game and strong defense to let him know he doesn’t have to do everything drive after drive.

If Watt stays healthy, I still think the Steelers are going to land around seven wins after the 2-6 start. That Watt injury really cost them the potential for some close wins over the Patriots, Browns, Jets, and Dolphins. But this season was never about seriously competing for the playoffs. They just have to get Pickett comfortable and make sure he’s capable of being the guy going forward.

Sunday was encouraging again.

Browns at Dolphins: The Synchronized Dolphin Show

What to make of these teams now? The Browns quickly scored an opening-drive touchdown, then watched the Dolphins score the next 24 points in a game that never got close after halftime. It’s the Browns’ second blowout loss this season after the Patriots got them 38-15 earlier this year. They are 0-3 against the AFC East, but hey, at least they are catching Buffalo at a good time next week…

It was another big game for the Miami offense, but it was by far the most balanced effort yet. The running game that has been struggling finally clicked to the tune of 195 yards. Jeff Wilson had 119 yards after coming over from the 49ers in a trade.

The passing game wasn’t just Tyreek Hill (44 yards and a short touchdown) and/or Jaylen Waddle (66 yards) dominating. The Dolphins had five 30-yard receivers, including Trent Sherfield (63 yards), who caught his first touchdown before halftime on a great effort.

Just like that, the Dolphins are 7-3 going into the bye with Houston at home up next. This team could be 8-3 and sitting at No. 1 or No. 2 in the AFC in a couple weeks. I think it’s fine to be skeptical of them given the recent wins are against PIT/DET/CHI/CLE, but we’ll get a great sense of this team’s legitimacy when they play a six-game stretch after Houston of the 49ers, Chargers, Bills, Packers, Patriots, and Jets. Those first three are all on the road too.

But this offense is getting comfortable and expanded, and that could be a scary thing for the other AFC contenders.

Lions at Bears: Just Need a Field Goal, Fields

I must give the 2022 Bears credit. I’ve never been this interested to write about a 3-win Chicago team in November like I am with this team. They remain a 3-win team too, because despite these historic rushing numbers, this offense cannot set up a field goal when it matters most.

  • The 2022 Bears are the first team in NFL history to rush for at least 230 yards in five consecutive games.
  • Yet they are 1-4 in those games.
  • The 2022 Bears are the first team in NFL history to lose three consecutive games after scoring at least 29 points.
  • Justin Fields is the first quarterback in NFL history to rush for 140 yards in consecutive games, following up 178 last week with 147 rushing yards against Detroit.
  • Yet in both games, he just needed to set up a game-winning field goal and could not move the offense.

When Matt Eberflus sent away for an elite Chicago running game, he forgot to order the great defense too. Those were the two staples of great Chicago years in the past. They could run the ball and play defense. This one only runs the ball, but it can’t even seem to do that when only a field goal is needed.

But don’t put too much blame on the defense for allowing a go-ahead touchdown drive with 2:21 left. The Bears shouldn’t have been in that position after leading 24-10 in the fourth quarter. But Fields threw a horrific pick-six to Jeff Okudah that tied the game at 24:

To his credit, Fields made up for that one with a 67-yard touchdown run, but the Bears missed the extra point and that left the door open for Jared Goff and the Lions in a 30-24 game. The Bears actually had another chance to add to the lead at midfield, but they went three-and-out.

Even after Goff’s drive, Fields had plenty of time to set up a game-winning field goal. But on a day where he only passed for 167 yards, he wasn’t decisive enough in the two-minute drill and he ended up taking two sacks, including one on fourth-and-8 to effectively end the game.

You can praise the incredible rushing of Fields, but you can’t overlook that it isn’t winning games, and all the running seems to be taking away from the development of the passing game.

This offense is not normal. The Bears have just lost three games in a row where they rushed for at least 240 yards and scored at least 29 points each week. No other NFL team since 1950 has more than two such losses to this day, let alone in a three-game period.

Since 1950, NFL teams rushing for at least 240 yards and scoring at least 29 points are 509-13. But the 2022 Bears are now 1-3 when they do it.

Here’s one more record: 2022 Bears join the 1965 49ers and 1966 Giants as the only three teams in NFL history to lose three straight games where they scored at least 25 points and rushed for at least 100 yards. Given we know the Bears were at 29+ points and 240+ rushing yards every week, this is the worst streak of the group.

The Chicago Bears being the NFL franchise with the worst losing streak in history when scoring more than 28 points and running the hell out of the ball is a plot twist few could have imagined. But here we are.

Hurry-Up Finish

I think the early Sunday morning games are done this season (thank God), but here’s to finishing up a great Sunday with three quickies.

Broncos at Titans: The Most Predictable One-Score Game of Week 10

You had to know this game would be decided by 1-to-8 points. Denver is the only team to play nine close games this year, and it’s not like Russell Wilson would have it any other way.

Denver’s offense continues to waste one of the best defenses in the league this year. After building a 10-0 lead, Russell Wilson led his offense to zero points on six second-half drives. Meanwhile, Ryan Tannehill shook off a slow start after missing the last two games and got it done through the air (255 yards and two touchdowns) on a day where Derrick Henry was held to 53 yards on 19 carries. The Titans scored the final 17 points and clinched the game with a tipped interception off Wilson thrown out of fourth-down desperation in the final minute. Wilson was also sacked six times.

Wilson is now 3-3 this season when the Broncos allow no more than 17 points. Wilson was 44-3 in Seattle before he suffered his third loss in such a game (71-9-1 overall).

Jerry Jeudy was injured early, so it was another big loss for the Broncos on offense this season. But the Broncos finished 4-of-17 on third down. If Tannehill can manufacture 17 points with Nick Westbrook-Ikhine going for 119 yards and two touchdowns, what’s Wilson’s excuse for 10 points?

Texans at Giants: Still Can’t Stop the Run

The Giants had a bye and the Texans had a few extra days after playing last Thursday, but that didn’t stop Saquon Barkley from a predictable stat line of 152 rushing yards and a touchdown in a 24-16 win that was never really in doubt.

Daniel Jones also had one of the most efficient passing games of his career with 13-of-17 for 197 yards and two touchdowns. It’s technically another one-possession win for the Giants due to Houston kicking two late field goals while down two scores, but the Giants led wire-to-wire for 3.5 quarters.

Is anyone going to be impressed by knocking off the 1-win Texans? Of course not. But at least the Giants avoided a giant letdown after the bye.

Cardinals at Rams: Early Toilet Bowl

This is the last game in the article but the first recap I’m writing as I want to flush down the biggest turd quickly. Only on Saturday night did I see some blurb that Matthew Stafford and Kyler Murray might be out for this game. I wasn’t even aware they had injuries this week as I do the meat of my injury article on Monday and Tuesday, and there was just nothing there. How does Stafford enter the concussion protocol on a Tuesday? Did he fall down steps or slip in the shower? That was weird.

It led to one of the early toilet bowls this season as the loser will certainly miss the playoffs after both made it last year. Sean McVay was 11-1 against the Cardinals, but there is no doubt Colt McCoy is a better backup quarterback than John Wolford.

Go right to the fourth quarter with the Rams trailing 17-10. Wolford air mails a high pass to Cooper Kupp, and the defensive back clips Kupp’s ankle on the way down, knocking him out of the game and potentially for much longer. I wouldn’t classify it as an intentionally dirty hit, but the poor throw helped lead to it. Kupp left the game with 3 catches for -1 yards, cementing Arizona’s legacy of being the only defense to have an answer for him in 2021-22. Four times they held him under 70 yards when no one else could. Just unfortunate as hell it came to an injury here. You don’t want to see a wide receiver having one of the all-time runs suffering an ankle injury.

But on the very next drive, McCoy converted a fourth-and-3 with a deep pass to Rondale Moore, who made a nice catch for 26 yards. Two plays later, James Conner was in the end zone again and the rout was on. Arizona eventually won 27-17.

The Rams are 3-6 and last place in the division. Stick a fork in them. We’ll have a new Super Bowl champion and a new NFC West champion this year.

Next week: I’ll probably have to pull the plug on my preseason pick of the Chargers winning the AFC West, but not before I give them one last chance in the rematch with the Chiefs on SNF.  Titans-Packers suddenly got interesting again this Thursday night. I hope the Eagles deliver on Monday night so we can talk about Matt Ryan and Jeff Saturday spoiling a 9-0 team’s season with a fourth-quarter comeback. The NFL coaching network is already so pissed with Saturday’s existence. This would be incredible stuff.

NFL Stat Oddity: Week 9

~ scottkacsmar ~ 14 Comments

Not to start on a huge rant, but I think when I pull myself away from spending the better part of three hours watching the Steelers fiddle their way to 15 points and actually watch all the other teams on RedZone all afternoon, I just see a lot of piss-poor football this season.

The quarterback play again looked lousy on Sunday with Tua Tagovailoa, the Play-Action Prom King, the only quarterback to hit 300 yards until Patrick Mahomes did it at night. But more than that, I couldn’t get over how many bad fumbles there were. Plays where a player just lost the ball himself in the open field. Bobbled snaps. Fumbles that were then fumbled right back by the defense on the same play. Then don’t even get me started on the plays that are rushed and the quarterback and receiver aren’t on the same page. How is that still happening so frequently in November?

Insert the clip of Vince Lombardi’s “What the hell’s going on out there?”

Really, what the hell is going on this season? The Bills lost to the Jets after leading 14-3. Minnesota is 7-1 after coming back from 10 down in the fourth quarter. Aaron Rodgers threw THREE interceptions in Detroit and lost 15-9 to the worst defense in football. The Rams-Bucs go from 34-24 and 30-27 games last year to a 16-13 stinker that makes me think we should just cancel the NFC playoffs and let the Eagles face the winner of a best-of-three between the Chiefs and Bills.

I just said a week or two ago that this 2022 season needs to be something more than the Bills-Chiefs winner against the Eagles in the Super Bowl. After this weekend, it looks like it might be something more than that, but whatever it is, it’s going to be pretty damn strange.

But once again, it comes down to close games. We had nine comeback opportunities out of 12 this week with six teams on bye. How are the Vikings (7-1) and Jets (6-3) posting such good records? They are a combined 11-0 in close games and 7-0 in 4QC/GWD opportunities.

When does their luck run out? They’ll actually meet in about a month in Week 13. Who knows what trajectory this season will be on by then. That’s also the day Deshaun Watson will be back. Hide the women and children, things are about to get dangerous as fan bases who haven’t enjoyed success in a long time, if ever, are going to be chiming in loudly now that the gap between the top and bottom has shrunk some.

This season in Stat Oddity:

Titans at Chiefs: These Teams Really Are “Just Different”

Despite the Titans being 14-point underdogs with rookie quarterback Malik Willis, Sunday night turned out to be the day’s best game, complete with one of Patrick Mahomes’ best game-tying drives and an overtime finish.

These teams are so stylistically different on offense that it proved to make for a compelling game between 5-2 teams with some history. We know the Chiefs had their worst loss of the Mahomes era last year, a 27-3 rout that is still the only game of Mahomes’ career where he never had a lead. He led 9-0 in this one before the Titans scored the next 17 points.

Some of the ingredients were there again for this to be a one-sided game in favor of the Titans, namely an attacking defense and Derrick Henry rushing for 115 yards and two touchdowns. But with Willis taking over for Ryan Tannehill, the Titans just lacked that extra punch on offense that could have put the finishing touches on this one with one more scoring drive. The Titans had five completions, and none went to a wide receiver.

The Titans also had one first down on their final 10 possessions. Yikes.

But Tennessee’s offensive shortcomings were matched by a defense that put on one of the best efforts anyone has against Mahomes in Kansas City. They really made him work for this one with 78 dropbacks after the running game bombed badly with 13 carries for 14 yards.

Mahomes was sacked four times, hit eight more times, and there was a seven-drive span where the Chiefs failed to score a point, tying the 19-13 game against the 2019 Colts for the longest scoreless streak in a Mahomes start. Of course, Harrison Butker didn’t help with a missed field goal during that run, but the Chiefs were really challenged by the Titans.

The Titans took their 17-9 lead into the final 10 minutes of the fourth quarter, but that was when Mahomes put together one of the best drives of his career starting from his own 7. The drive ultimately succeeded because of Mahomes’ legs. His 20-yard scramble on a third-and-17 was a game changer. His 14-yard touchdown scramble on third-and-9 was another great run as several of his best runs have now come against the Titans in his career. He went for the hat trick on the two-point conversion, taking it in himself again.

But between the big runs on the drive, Mahomes found success when he stopped trying to force the ball to the well-covered Travis Kelce and got his other receivers involved with quick passes. JuJu Smith-Schuster especially had a big night.

With the game tied, the Titans would go three-and-out and never get another first down the rest of the game. You could see how little respect the Chiefs gave to Willis and the Tennessee offense, along with some respect for their own offense. But if Tannehill was playing in this game, I cannot imagine Andy Reid goes for a fourth-and-1 at his own 45 in a 17-17 game or a fourth-and-1 at the Tennessee 13 on the first drive of overtime.

The Chiefs converted both of those plays, but they were still stopped in regulation, and after winning the coin toss in overtime and setting up that first down at the Tennessee 11, they were stopped cold again on three passes. Butker, who also missed an extra point earlier, pulled his head out of his ass and made the 28-yard field goal to take a 20-17 lead.

Almost predictably, the Chiefs would force the Titans to go four-and-out with Willis making some bad plays by holding the ball too long. He really didn’t have any open receivers, but he needed to throw the ball away. Once that first long sack set up third-and-21, you knew the Titans were in trouble. After another sack set up fourth-and-26, Willis threw incomplete on a short pass to end the game.

It was a wild one, and if these teams were to see each other again with Tannehill or if Willis gets better as a passer and remains the starter, then you could see the Titans being one of the few teams who could go into Arrowhead and win. They have been a nuisance over the years for Reid’s teams.

But the quarterback mismatch was just too much for the Titans to overcome in the end. Mahomes ended up throwing for 446 yards on 68 passes and rushing for 63 yards and a touchdown.

The Chiefs are 6-2, but I think we are going to see more tough games like this one and the comeback against the Raiders, which were two of the most dramatic island games this season. This offense has looked as good as ever in games against the Cardinals, Buccaneers, and 49ers, but we have also seen the offense held to 20 points or fewer in four games now. There seems to be no middle ground as that 30-29 win over the Raiders is the only game where the offense scored between 21-40 points.

I guess this is what life without Tyreek Hill looks like this year. You just hope that when the off game comes in the playoffs, the defense is able to do enough to keep the game winnable and they can grind another close one out. Sunday night was the first time in the last 13 games the Chiefs did not allow 20 points. Of course, Malik Willis won’t be there every week.

But the rematch with Justin Herbert and the Chargers in Los Angeles in two weeks is looking like a big one again. It’s even bigger if the Chargers can upset the 49ers in San Francisco on Sunday night.

Rams at Buccaneers: Surprised They Didn’t Blow It Like This in January Too

The battle of two teams who have seen better days ended in a manner you should have expected. The Rams tried their darndest to blow the NFC divisional round matchup even after taking a 27-3 lead, but Cooper Kupp saved his biggest play for the end of the game.

He may have saved his biggest mistake for the end of this one, but the whole final sequence was classic, conservative Sean McVay. For 58 minutes, we were stuck watching two bad offenses that rank 31st and 32nd in rushing try to throw the ball with quarterbacks who are having the worst seasons of their career at throwing touchdowns.

If Matthew Stafford isn’t lining up a shot play for Kupp this year, he’s almost worthless. Tom Brady has taken a liking to skipping balls off the ground as so many of his throws are low and well short of the sticks this year.

After Kupp’s early touchdown gave the Rams their only offensive life and a 7-3 lead in this one, Brady was given 11 more drives in a row where he just needed a touchdown to tie or take the lead. Eleven. Do you think the quarterback who has thrown for 100,000 yards in his career including the playoffs could get one touchdown drive on 11 opportunities?

But the Rams, led by a few great plays by Aaron Donald, kept him out of the end zone on the first 10 drives after the Kupp touchdown. But even when he threw incomplete on fourth and goal with 1:52 left, you knew it wasn’t over with the Bucs having two timeouts left.

If you have paid attention to Sean McVay’s career, you know he is super conservative in these moments. The thought used to be that he was afraid to let Jared Goff throw with the late lead, but he has Stafford now and we still see this stuff.

On the second play of the drive, after a run for no gain, Kupp got another carry. Instead of trying to plow forward for the first down, which he absolutely had a shot at with the way he runs with the ball, Kupp did a big slide to stay in bounds and keep the clock running after a 5-yard gain.

What the hell was that? Even if you get knocked out of bounds, go for the 10 yards and end this thing. The game is over with a first down. That was a big mistake, but McVay made it worse with the predictable run for a yard on third-and-5. All that money to Stafford and Kupp, and you call a run to Darrell Henderson with a chance to win the game. For shame, man.

So, the stage was set. Brady had 44 seconds and no timeouts to drive 60 yards for the win. He got almost half of it right away with a pass to tight end Cade Otton, a 28-yard gain after the Bucs had zero 20-yard plays in the first 59 minutes.

Okay, but the Rams would be more aggressive with the ball getting closer to the end zone, right?

Wrong. The Rams went prevent and didn’t even bother guarding the sidelines. Brady could go 25 yards in three plays that took 12 seconds with how open the receivers were at the sideline.

With the ball at the 7 now, the next piece of the puzzle was Mike Evans doing his usual acting job to sell a defensive pass interference that officials almost always buy. Brady threw a terrible, hurried pass that no one could have caught, but because there was a little contact with the defender, and because of how good Evans is at selling these, they got the ball at the 1-yard line. Otton finished the drive with the walk-in touchdown on a play-action pass, the first touchdown by a Tampa tight end since Rob Gronkowski retired. The Rams then fumbled a lateral play to end the game.

On a day where multiple NFL games had questionable endings in regards to DPI being called or not with any consistency, go figure it was Brady and Evans to get the call on the worst throw of the three.

The reputation of the quarterback, receiver, and defender involved in a pass play should not have any influence on whether or not the play is pass interference. But watch enough NFL games and it is hard to deny there isn’t some influence there.

  • I cannot imagine Brady and Evans not getting that DPI call on the Chase Claypool play that Justin Fields threw to no avail to end the game.
  • I doubt Jets corner Sauce Gardner gets away with what he did on Gabe Davis if he was an undrafted scrub playing in his first game instead of an emerging rookie star who was drafted No. 4 overall.
  • If the pass Brady threw to Evans was thrown by Malik Willis to Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, you’ll die holding your breath waiting for the same flag to come out.

Star treatment aside, this loss was on McVay more than anything. He had a chance to bury Tampa Bay at 3-6, but he’s the one sitting at 3-5 because he doesn’t play to win like he should.

Bills at Jets: Oh Great, Now You’ve Encouraged Them

The Buffalo Bills have received plenty of praise all season. They have been the favorites to win it all this year since the preseason. They were my preseason Super Bowl pick. Josh Allen has been leading the MVP race all year.

But ever since they won the Game of the Year in Kansas City in Week 6 and had their bye, it is starting to look like the Bills are listening to too much of the praise before they’ve actually achieved anything different this season.

They beat the Chiefs 38-20 in Arrowhead last year with Allen getting MVP praise. What happened a few weeks later? It was one year ago today (11/7) they lost 9-6 in Jacksonville as a huge favorite with Allen playing such a terrible game that it effectively destroyed his 2021 MVP campaign.

Allen wasn’t Jacksonville terrible on Sunday, but the truth is he has thrown four interceptions since he’s thrown his last touchdown pass. They have been pretty bad, 2018-19 type Josh Allen picks too. He did rush for two early touchdowns against the Jets to build a 14-3 lead, but the Bills managed just one field goal the rest of the way.

The Jets were not stellar on offense, but they also did enough damage to make the Bills look less than impressive as they try to finish No. 1 on defense. Zach Wilson avoided throwing any interceptions, and he hooked up with rookie wideout Garrett Wilson eight times for 92 yards.

But the difference in the rushing games was significant. The Jets gave Wilson 150 yards of ground support compared to 48 yards for Allen, who barely broke 200 yards passing again as no one but Stefon Diggs (93 yards) really stepped up at receiver.

Allen did not have a successful fourth quarter after the Bills tied the game at 17. The Jets helped Wilson out by going to the ground game exclusively on their game-winning drive until Wilson converted a third down before the two-minute warning. That led to the Bills burning through all three timeouts before the Jets kicked the go-ahead field goal to take a 20-17 lead with 1:43 left.

Still, that’s plenty of time to set up a field goal in this league. But I’ve had my reservations about the Bills being a front-running team. The game-winning drive in Kansas City was great, but the fact is Allen is only 9-16 (.360) at fourth-quarter comeback opportunities in his career.

It looked like Allen was going to overcome an instant holding penalty and first-and-20 situation, but a strip-sack nearly ended his drive after three snaps. The Bills recovered but faced third-and-21. Allen was too low for Diggs, who did very little after halftime, and on fourth down, he threw up a prayer in a really solid spot to Gabe Davis, but he was in coverage with rookie corner Sauce Gardner. There was a lot of contact and Gardner did very little to look back for the ball, but there was no flag.

Ideally, you don’t want to see a team put in instant field goal range at the end of the game with a DPI flag like that. It should be something egregious. My issue with the whole process here is that it seems like officials are already applying star treatment to Gardner, a rookie, as if he was prime Darrelle Revis or Richard Sherman. This isn’t the first time he’s gotten away with some aggressive grabbing at the end of the game to no call by the official. Why wouldn’t he keep doing it if they’re not going to call it?

Buffalo (6-2) is still holding onto the No. 1 spot in the AFC, but the Jets are right there at 6-3 and Buffalo is now 0-2 in division games after losing to Miami earlier. I still think this team’s worst enemy is itself. Right now, the Bills are looking like a team that thought its shit didn’t stink this year. After these last five quarters going back to the Green Bay game not ending as well as it could have, hopefully they realize they still have a long way to go this season.

Week 6 didn’t guarantee a thing other than holding the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Chiefs.

Packers at Lions: Some Shitty Throws, For Sure

Aaron Rodgers was 18-3 against the Lions in games he actually played to completion. The Detroit defense made him look bad in a 19-7 loss in 2014. Mason Crosby had some kicks he’d like to have back in losses in 2015 and 2018 as Rodgers did what he could on tough days for the Packers.

But Sunday? This was something different. Rodgers was facing perhaps the most inept Detroit defense since the days of the 0-16 team in 2008, but he still found a way to throw three interceptions deep in scoring range and lost a 15-9 game to Jared Goff and a 1-6 team.

Jesus Christ.

The interceptions were stunning as this is a quarterback who throws two or four picks for an entire season most of the time since 2018. He just threw three in one game against a team he owns that had two picks all season coming in. A Detroit defense that allowed at least 24 points to everyone, but the Packers got nine largely because of those interceptions.

Was it all Rodgers’ fault? No, Romeo Doubs was carted off and Aaron Jones, not that they seemed to want to use him anyway on Sunday, did not finish the game either. The skill player injuries continue to mount. There were also some bad drops.

But after thinking Matt LaFleur was such a good coach for Rodgers and better than Mike McCarthy, I’m just not seeing it after what is now a five-game losing streak. The team is getting worse instead of better. Maybe that’s the injuries and lack of talent, but why after running all over Buffalo did the Packers not try something similar in this game? Rodgers trying to pad the touchdown pass total with those short, quick throws into tight windows was ludicrous. Give the ball to Aaron Jones, the guy with 40 touchdowns in 2019-21.

A fade to Sammy Watkins is the best play call you have? Really?

But once the Packers got the ball to the Detroit 17 in a 15-9 game in the final minute, you still thought Rodgers had it in him to pull it out. Not so much because of his personal history, but also because you just expect the Lions as a franchise to lose this game to Green Bay. Like Brady, Rodgers could play like shit for 59 minutes but get all the credit if he delivers on the last drive.

Of course, you still have to deliver, and he didn’t do it this time. Why is he wasting two downs with lazy throws that landed well out of bounds to Allen Lazard? Why is he going for the end zone on third down when he still has time to pick up the first and get inside the 10? What the hell was that fourth-down play to Watkins supposed to be? He wasn’t even looking for that ball.

Four straight incompletions ended the game, and the Lions pulled it off. Next, Rodgers will get to host Dallas, another team he’s owned for his career. But the days of expecting Rodgers and the Packers to do the things they used to do seem to be over.

It’s gotten so bad that you might not even be able to trust the Packers at home in a night game against the Bears anymore. You know, their Week 2 game that’s the only win they have by more than three points in their last 11 games going back to last season.

Vikings at Commanders: We Need to Talk About Kirk

Not that the world would be any saner with a Taylor Heinicke-driven win streak, but we need to talk about Kirk Cousins, because Mr. .500 is having one interesting season.

No one knows how to stay within a game of .500 like Cousins, but at 7-1 now, he is either threatening to blow that narrative out of the water this year, or the Vikings are about to have one of the most epic second-half meltdowns.

For the first time in his career, Cousins has led four fourth-quarter comeback wins in a season, and he still has at least nine games to go. This was the second time he’s rallied from 10 points down in the fourth this year, doing it against Detroit too.

These are the games Minnesota used to mostly lose, which is why in a normal year, the Vikings would be 3-5, 4-4, or 5-3 right now. But they’re getting things to go their way and their only loss was against the 8-0 Eagles.

When I say things are going Minnesota’s way, I mean after falling behind 17-7 in the fourth quarter, Cousins looks like he gets picked three plays into the next drive. Typical Cousins. He’ll finish with 300 yards and multiple touchdowns, but only after he throws a couple bad picks. But this time there was a defensive pass interference flag to negate it. Then Cousins hits a bomb to Justin Jefferson that leads to a field goal, and Heinicke is the one getting intercepted to set up a 12-yard field that Cousins turns into a nice touchdown catch by Dalvin Cook to tie the game.

Washington goes three-and-out, Minnesota drives methodically, but it looked like the go-ahead field goal would come with nearly two full minutes left for Heinicke to answer. But the Commanders are penalized on the field goal for a silly unnecessary roughness foul, so the game-winning field goal left Heinicke just 12 seconds to answer, which he understandably couldn’t.

Ho-hum, the Vikings are 7-1 with a 20-17 win that won’t move the numbers for them after the run game was stuffed (56 yards) and Cousins was barely over 50% complete. New tight end T.J. Hockenson showed out well in his first game after the trade from Detroit with nine catches on nine targets for 70 yards.

But despite the record and all the close wins, Cousins (50.1) is only 19th in QBR, which would be his lowest ranking and lowest QBR in his career.

I’d say that plane ride is about to be the peak of Minnesota’s season, but with Buffalo up next, what if next Sunday is the day everything changes? If Cousins outplays Josh Allen in an upset win, that could mark the first time all year the Bills are not on the odds-on favorites to win the Super Bowl, Allen is not leading the MVP race anymore, and Cousins just may be moving his name near the top of that list on an 8-1 team.

You like that?

I don’t think I do, but if Kevin O’Connell is going to give Cousins the Stafford makeover like he did with the 2021 Rams to win a Super Bowl and send Tom Brady into retirement along the way, then sign me up for all the craziness to come.

Seahawks at Cardinals: Baseball Season Is Over, Is Kyler Checked Out?

With the World Series in the books and a new Call of Duty game out, is it time for Kyler Murray to mentally check out of this season?

If you didn’t get the references, this is about the way Murray’s Arizona teams under Kliff Kingsbury tend to implode in November and December, and that the quarterback’s study time is impacted as he apparently has a thing for gaming.

But this is going to make for an awkward in-season Hard Knocks if the Cardinals keep losing after a bad start to the season. This game was fairly lopsided with the Seahawks converting 10-of-15 on third down and outgaining Arizona 421-262. I’m not even sure why the Cardinals were a slight favorite. Home-field advantage? Murray and Kliff have one of the worst home records since 2019.

But even with DK Metcalf held in check like usual against Arizona, he still caught a touchdown, Geno Smith didn’t implode, and Kenneth Walker rushed for 109 yards and two more touchdowns.

The Cardinals were down 17-14 to start the fourth quarter with the ball, but Murray took a third-down sack, one of five sacks on the day as he had problems getting the ball out late in the game. Seattle answered both Arizona drives in the fourth quarter with Walker touchdowns, and it’s yet another double-digit win for Pete Carroll’s team.

These really are the bizarro Seahawks, but it’s clicking right now with a 6-3 record and four straight wins. If this team can beat Tampa before the bye, it is not impossible for the Seahawks to be 10-3 going into the rematch with San Francisco in Week 15. Short of the Eagles going 17-0, I think you’d have to give Carroll the Coach of the Year award if this team wins 10+ games.

Chargers at Falcons: About What You’d Expect

We have already seen the Chargers in the Justin Herbert era play the Falcons twice, and see if you can spot the similarities:

  • 2020: Chargers win 20-17 after 43-yard field goal is good on a drive that started with 31 seconds left after an Atlanta turnover.
  • 2022: Chargers win 20-17 after 37-yard field goal is good on a drive that started with 34 seconds left after an Atlanta turnover.

Yeah, they went there again. It was another tough start for the Chargers, who were without wide receivers Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, but they still had Austin Ekeler for a couple touchdowns to offset the pair scored by Cordarrelle Patterson, who made his return for Atlanta.

Still, the game was lower scoring than expected with a comedy of errors in the second half as you might expect in a game between the Chargers and Falcons. Khalil Mack flat out stole the ball from rookie Drake London in the third quarter when London was about to set up first-and-goal.

In the fourth quarter, Atlanta kicker Younghoe Koo missed a 50-yard field goal that would have given the Falcons a 20-14 lead and could have led to a much different outcome. But the Chargers tied the game with a field goal from Cameron Dicker the Kicker (real name), Atlanta went three-and-out, and Herbert seemed to have another game-winning drive brewing.

Then we were treated to a play that you could only get in a Chargers-Falcons game as both teams tried to choke as hard as they could with the game on the line.

With 46 seconds left at the Atlanta 22, Ekeler was just trying to run for a first down. He fumbled, the Falcons scooped it up and started to return it, then they fumbled it right back to the Chargers, starting a new drive with 34 seconds left. Herbert needed just one 22-yard pass to Josh Palmer to set up Dicker the Kicker from 37 yards out as time expired for the 20-17 win.

CBS had an interesting graphic that the 2022 Chargers are the third team in NFL history to trail by double digits after the first quarter of four straight games. The others were the 1962 Broncos and 1988 Buccaneers, two teams you don’t want to be associated with. But the shocking part is the Chargers are now 3-1 in these games, so they are finding their footing and holding onto most leads this year. Still, it doesn’t really feel like a 5-3 team, but we’ll see what can happen when the wide receivers return.

But after 28-3 and now blowing the last two winnable head-to-head meetings with the Chargers, I have to say the Falcons outclass the Chargers when it comes to choking and losing games in incredible fashion that you definitely should have won. So, if losing was the goal here to determine the real winner between these two, then Atlanta came through beautifully on Sunday.

Dolphins at Bears: Some Offensive Appreciation Here in 2022

I’d like to point out this was the most fun in a Dolphins-Bears game since Erik Kramer led a 15-point comeback in the fourth quarter for a 36-33 upset of Dan Marino’s Dolphins in 1997.

I’m not kidding either. There is something to be said that these teams are hopefully turning the corner on offense and will be watchable again, or in Chicago’s case, for the first time since television was invented.

The Dolphins are finally starting to stack big scoring games, and they even got Tyreek Hill his first touchdown since the Baltimore comeback to go along with his prolific yardage output this season. One thing I did notice is that it seemed like every single Tua pass attempt came off play-action. It’s something he uses around 30%, a league-high rate, and it certainly helps to have the speediest WR duo in the league. I can see the system QB arguments to come going forward, but whatever.

It was also a game that could have easily slipped away from Miami after the Bears pulled to within 35-32 with over 11 minutes left. No one scored the rest of the way, though there were chances.

Justin Fields had himself a prolific day with 178 rushing yards, the second most by a quarterback in NFL history and a new record for a regular-season game. Michael Vick had 173 yards back in the day.

By finishing with 252 rushing yards as a team, the Bears are the fourth team in NFL history (read: since 1940) to rush for at least 230 yards in four consecutive games. The only other teams to do that are the 1949 Eagles, 1951 49ers, and 1976 Steelers.

But given two cracks at a game-tying field goal, the offense stalled. However, the last drive was not entirely the offense’s fault. There was no flag here on Miami for defensive pass interference. This was a third-and-10 play with 1:35 left.

Tom Brady and Mike Evans get that flag. I guess Fields and new receiver Chase Claypool don’t have that luxury yet. Fields threw incomplete on fourth down on the next play to end the game.

Fields finished with a 95.4 QBR, the highest by any quarterback in Week 9, and easily the highest by any quarterback in a loss in the last two seasons. The Bears may not be winning most of these recent games, but it is an encouraging sign to see Fields moving the offense and putting points on the board even if it is happening in an unconventional way.

Raiders at Jaguars: McDaniels the Next One-and-Done?

Josh McDaniels must not have received the memo that the Jaguars have lost 40 straight games when allowing more than 20 points. Not 20 points exactly. More than 20 points. So, maybe the Raiders should have tried scoring on any of their five second-half drives.

By blowing a 17-0 lead, the 2022 Raiders join the 2003 Falcons and 2020 Chargers on a fitting list of teams to blow three leads of at least 17 points in the same season. No one else has done that, and both of those teams fired their head coach that year.

Blowing a 17-0 lead to Patrick Mahomes in Kansas City is one thing but blowing a 20-0 lead to Arizona and now a 17-0 lead in Jacksonville is a fire-worthy offense in my book.

Trevor Lawrence had one of the best passing games of his career (25-of-31 for 235 yards), and Travis Etienne went over 100 yards and scored two more touchdowns on the ground. It was still on brand that Lawrence’s second fourth-quarter comeback saw him hand off to Etienne for a 5-yard touchdown on the first play of the quarter, but there was a significant multi-score comeback leading up to that point that he was a big part of, so props to him for finally delivering one.

Once again, the Raiders had a great half and a terrible half. They never seem to put it together for a full game. Davante Adams was absolutely unstoppable in the first half, catching all nine targets for 146 yards and two touchdowns. But in the second half? Very stoppable. He caught 1-of-8 balls for no yards and had some concentration drops.

Derek Carr’s success rate was 1-for-11 to end the game as he got four different drives to try to answer Jacksonville’s lead with a touchdown. Couldn’t get it done again, so the Raiders are 2-6.

This franchise is no stranger to firing coaches after one season. With nine games left to set the record for blown 17-point leads in a season, McDaniels may be back in New England soon.

Hurry-Up Finish

The clock change is probably going to kick my ass after sleeping four hours last night, so let’s finish this up with the two blowouts on Sunday.

The 30th-ranked run offense cranked out 241 yards on the ground with Mixon scoring five touchdowns (one receiving), a franchise record.

Panthers at Bengals: Have a Day, Joe Mixon

It was a spectacular performance that just goes to show you that playing division opponents can produce weird results like last week for these teams and playing out of conference foes you don’t match up well with could be harmful.

This was an early knockout with the Bengals up 35-0 at halftime before winning 42-21 after Baker Mayfield had to relieve starting quarterback P.J. Walker, who finished with a 0.0 passer rating on 10 passes, the first 0.0 game since Cincinnati’s Brandon Allen had one against Baltimore in the 2020 finale. Earlier that season, Ryan Finley also had a 0.0 game for the Bengals against Washington, so the last three instances have involved Zac Taylor’s Bengals. But he was on the right side of this one.

Colts at Patriots: Throwback to the Old Days Best Forgotten

Remember when this was the rivalry in the NFL? Good times. Sunday’s game was like a throwback to the early 90s when the Colts and Patriots were two of the worst offenses in the NFL. At least the Colts still won 6-0 in New England in 1992.

This was a 26-3 massacre despite the fact that the Patriots only finished with 203 yards of offense. Still beats the 121 yards the Colts had as Sam Ehlinger took nine sacks. Isn’t the younger, mobile quarterback supposed to escape those and make things happen? This was quite arguably the saddest offensive performance of the Frank Reich era, and he once lost 6-0 in Jacksonville with Andrew Luck.

The Colts were 0-of-14 on third down. Since 1991, only the 2012 Cardinals (0-for-15 vs. Jets) and 2009 Buccaneers (0-for-14 vs. Jets) equaled or did worse than that in a game.

Can anyone explain to me why the Colts said Matt Ryan’s benching for Ehlinger was a move for the rest of the season? Is this team just tanking? It’s the only logical explanation.

Meanwhile, as if there was any doubt who the GOAT is and who the LOAT is, Bill Belichick’s Patriots are 5-4 with injuries at all the skill positions and not much to brag about even when they are healthy. That is pretty good, and yet he is dead last in his division as the AFC East has morphed into a juggernaut apparently.

Maybe he should have left for the NFC South too if he wanted a shot at the playoffs in his twilight years.

Next week: Germany game? Guess I’ll have to get up in time to see Pete Carroll blow another fourth quarter to Brady. Save us, Geno. Some very interesting AFC-NFC games with Bills-Vikings and Chargers-49ers on SNF. Even Browns-Dolphins could be the most exciting matchup between those teams since the days of Dan Marino and Bernie Kosar.

NFL Stat Oddity: Week 7

~ scottkacsmar ~ 15 Comments

I had my reservations about the Week 7 schedule going into the weekend, and it is hard to say that wasn’t justified with the results. There was a lot of sloppy football on Sunday with the Bills and Eagles, the leaders in each conference, enjoying a bye week.

We had a season-low seven games with a comeback opportunity, and there were only two lead changes in the fourth quarter. One even involved a game with the Raiders-Texans that was decided by 18 points.

If Sunday is remembered for anything, it would have to be a new low point in the careers of Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers, which just so happens to be occurring simultaneously. While both have had plenty of games worse than how they played individually on Sunday, it’s the continuation of a rough stretch since they met in a 14-12 oddity in Week 3 that is the reason why we can call this their lowest point in the NFL. Both are floundering on 3-4 teams that have fallen further than expected this year.

The NFL would be up shit creek if it did not have a rivalry between Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen to promote.  

At least, that’s one of the main things I took away from Sunday.

This season in Stat Oddity:

Chiefs at 49ers: Not a Super Rematch

Patrick Mahomes DGAF what “sharp money” says about his team’s chances, especially going on the road after a tough loss to Buffalo. This is exactly the kind of game the Chiefs tend to dial in for when people start doubting them. While I understood the tactical advantages to the 49ers having a real shot in this one with them getting some of their best players back and adding Christian McCaffrey after a big trade, there’s still that glaring mismatch of Mahomes vs. Jimmy Garoppolo.

It showed up here again even if Mahomes was intercepted on his first drive and the 49ers quickly built a 10-0 lead. Of course, the Chiefs are no strangers to coming back from 10-point deficits early.

Of the eight drives Mahomes played against what is supposed to be a top-tier defense, he threw for 423 yards, led six touchdown drives, one missed field goal from 39 yards before halftime, and that early pick off a deflection. Incredible stuff from this offense that nearly got three 100-yard receivers as Travis Kelce was just two yards shy of joining JuJu Smith-Schuster (124) and Marquez Valdes-Scantling (111). 

The Chiefs finally hit on that deep ball to MVS for 57 yards, and it could not have come in a more critical moment than in the fourth quarter on a third-and-11 after the 49ers had cut the lead to 28-23. That led to another touchdown and 35-23 lead on Mecole Hardman’s third touchdown of the game on a jet sweep. Four snaps later, you could see Garoppolo in immediate trouble with edge pressure from Frank Clark, resulting in a sack and safety in the end zone. JuJu scored another touchdown to make it 44-23, blowout city. The Chiefs were 6-of-7 on third down with Mahomes, including four of their five biggest gains in the game (57, 45, 34, and 27 yards).

Let’s just say Garoppolo did not show up around the end zones. Not only did he have the safety, but he had a brutal red-zone pick earlier in the game when the 49ers were down 14-13 late in the second quarter. The Chiefs had one interception on defense all season and left this game with two more.

When the Chiefs play like they did against Arizona, Tampa Bay, and this game, which were all on the road, they look like the best team in the NFL. Certainly the best offense, and not one you’d ever think to bring up Tyreek Hill’s absence for. This is why if they have to travel to Buffalo for an AFC Championship Game, you can trust that they’ll be competitive and give themselves a good chance to win.

Since losing 27-3 to the Titans last year to start 3-4, the Chiefs have had a fourth-quarter lead or tie in 20 straight games. Now they get to enjoy the bye week and get ready for some Tennessee revenge on SNF at home in Week 9.

The 49ers (3-4) are going to have better days with McCaffrey fitting into the offense well after he learns the complete playbook, and the defense won’t see another quarterback or offense this good the rest of the regular season.

Buccaneers at Panthers: Does Tom Brady Suck Enough to Retire Yet?

In 2014, Tom Brady infamously said “When I suck, I’ll retire.” Well, he didn’t do that after the 2019 season where he finished 4-5 down the stretch and threw a pick-six in the playoffs on his final pass with the Patriots. He came back for more with Tampa Bay, and enough things went his way to win a seventh Super Bowl immediately.

But instead of retiring in the perfect spot on top with nothing else to prove, he had to come back for more in 2021. Getting shut out 9-0 to Taysom Hill and the Saints in prime time ended his MVP bid, and the Rams ended his repeat dream in the divisional round game that would have been a fitting end to his career.

But retirement lasted just 40 days so that he can come back to a team with downgrades at coach, tight end, offensive line, and healthy receivers. But hey, who doesn’t want to piss off their family so they can pad the passing totals into unreachable territory for a 3-4 team that’s fading fast?

Good thing the NFC South and the NFC in general are this bad, but this has to be the lowest point of Brady’s 23-year career. He is 3-4 for the first time since 2002, his first full season as a Week 1 starter for New England. But in the last two weeks, Brady has lost as a 9.5-point favorite in Pittsburgh to a rookie quarterback and Mitch Trubisky, and now he’s lost as a 13.5-point favorite to a Carolina team that wasn’t expected to win more than a game or two after firing the head coach and trading away star running back Christian McCaffrey.

Brady had two other losses (2012 Arizona and 2019 Miami) as a favorite of 13.5+, but at least those games were competitive late. This was a 21-3 embarrassment unlike anything we have seen in Brady’s career.

Tampa Bay had zero turnovers, zero missed field goals, and they only had four penalties for 30 yards. So, it wasn’t even some fluky upset where they kept coughing up the ball, or got railroaded by officials, or the kicker went insane and kept missing. None of that. Tampa Bay was forced to punt six times on the first eight drives, and it was stopped twice on fourth down in the game.

However, the third play of the game seemed to set the tone for the day to follow. Brady had Mike Evans wide open for a 64-yard touchdown, but the veteran inexplicably dropped the ball. The drive ended in a punt, which would become common the rest of the way.

Watching that play on RedZone, I was shocked but also just figured they were going to destroy this team if receivers like Evans are getting that open. However, it was seriously the best touchdown opportunity the Bucs had all game long. Carolina just kept stopping them cold as Brady’s low passes and throws short of the sticks just failed to keep any drives going. Leonard Fournette was also stopped on a fourth-down run in the third quarter.

Meanwhile, Carolina backup P.J. Walker made confident throws and did not get greedy in turning the ball over on risky plays. He led three touchdown drives to give the Panthers a stunning 21-3 upset.

The Buccaneers are the first team since the 2009 Steelers to lose consecutive games outright as a favorite of at least 9.5 points. They are the only team on record (since 1978) to do it without turning the ball over in either game.

In fact, this is the second time in Brady’s career he lost a game by at least 18 points despite zero turnovers. He also lost 34-10 to the Titans in 2018.

Last week was a different kind of crazy in Pittsburgh, but this was just downright embarrassing against arguably the worst team in the NFL.

We knew there were signs before the season started that things would not be as good as they were in 2020-21. We knew in Week 1 that not everything was okay. But who would have guessed that after Brady and Aaron Rodgers met in a weird 14-12 game in Week 3 that the last month would play out the way it has for both?

We are witnessing the lowest points of their careers at the same time.

Packers at Commanders: When the Cat Starts Missing the Litter Box…

I thought Washington (+4.5) had a decent shot in this with the way the Packers have been slumping and the fact that Taylor Heinicke led the offense to 430 yards in a matchup last year, the team’s second-most yards in a game in the last five seasons. Green Bay won that one 24-10 because Heinicke just could not finish in the red zone at all.

But after seeing Heinicke start this game so inaccurately and throwing a pick-six to fall behind 14-3, it was absolutely shocking to see him outplay and beat Aaron Rodgers in the end. Once Heinicke settled down, he started making plays and used his legs to keep many plays alive. Terry McLaurin also put in a spirited effort with 73 yards and a touchdown.

Washington led 20-14 in the fourth quarter and the defense was able to stop Rodgers on a fourth-and-1 pass that should have been caught by Romeo Doubs, but it was right at the marker, and he couldn’t come up with it. Washington added a field goal for a 23-14 lead, then Rodgers answered with a touchdown on a drive aided by multiple penalties.

Heinicke almost ran the clock out on the Packers, but Rodgers got it back for one more chance in a 23-21 game with 23 seconds left. One big pass to Sammy Watkins for 28 yards and a spike seemed to set up another Hail Mary finish. At least, that probably would have been the smartest play for Rodgers. Instead, from 54 yards out the Packers seemed to believe they could pull off a series of laterals to score. It was very amusing and lasted longer than most attempts, but oddly enough it was Rodgers’ lateral to a lineman along the sideline that went awry, and the game ended. It wouldn’t have counted either way as the Packers were penalized for an illegal blindside block earlier on the play.

The Packers finished 0-for-6 on third down, their first game without a conversion since Brett Favre led the Packers into Denver in a 31-10 loss in 1999.

This is a lot of bad firsts for Rodgers and coach Matt LaFleur as of late:

  • Between January’s 13-10 playoff loss and Week 1’s 23-7 loss, that was the first time in Rodgers’ career where he did not throw a touchdown pass in consecutive starts.
  • Rodgers beat Tampa Bay 14-12, the first time in his career he won a game where he scored fewer than 20 points and was shut out in the second half.
  • Rodgers threw his second career pick-six at home against the Patriots, a game they had to win in overtime against the 9.5-point underdog and their third-string rookie quarterback.
  • Matt LaFleur was 22-0 SU as a favorite of at least 6 points before losing in back-to-back weeks to the Giants (+8) and Jets (+7.5).
  • The 27-10 loss to the Jets is the worst regular-season home loss that Rodgers started and finished in his career.
  • Now you have Sunday’s game as the first in 234 starts where the Packers failed to convert a third down under Rodgers.
  • The Packers are 3-4 after seven games for the first time in the Rodgers era (they were 3-3-1 in 2018).
  • Rodgers has also not passed for over 260 yards in nine straight starts, the longest streak of his career.

What a great time for the Packers (3-4) to be on Sunday Night Football against rested Buffalo next week. But you can see why this would easily be the low point of Rodgers’ career.

Steelers at Dolphins: Maybe Don’t Draft a QB with “Pick” In His Name?

After he lost to the Jets, I said Kenny Pickett had about the most encouraging three-interception debut a quarterback could have in the NFL.

After he lost 38-3 in Buffalo, I said Picket had about the most encouraging 35-point blowout loss in his first start that a quarterback could have.

After Pickett became the 28th quarterback since the 1970 merger to throw at least seven interceptions in his first four NFL games, I’m not so sure how encouraged I still am about him.

Pickett is the first quarterback since Ryan Leaf (1998) to throw at least seven interceptions and fewer than three touchdown passes in his first four NFL games. Yikes.

I could brush off literally all three picks against the Jets since they involved tipped balls and a Hail Mary. Even the bad throw in Buffalo was him being desperate down multiple touchdowns late in the half. Then the first pick on Sunday night was a play where Chase Claypool just fell.

But those last two picks in the fourth quarter of a winnable 16-10 game? Ugly stuff from the rookie to waste a good defensive effort over the last three quarters after it looked like the Steelers were going to get blown out on the road again. In fact, this is only the third NFL game in the last five seasons (2018-22) with no points scored after halftime.

I don’t want to make it sound like Pickett was 100% at fault for the loss. Things could have been much different if the defense did not drop three or four of the gift-wrapped interceptions Tua Tagovailoa threw their way. I guess someone has to keep up the lucky QB in the AFC East reputation.

In a frustrating second half for both sides, Pickett continued to get chances in a 16-10 game, thanks in large part to a bad sequence of play calls by Miami coach Mike McDaniel when he probably should have kicked a field goal to go up 19-10 in the third quarter.

But it seemed like Pickett was going to be able to put together a go-ahead touchdown drive late in the fourth quarter. But the Steelers were did in by an illegal shift and holding penalty to bring up third-and-16 at the Miami 30. Pickett thought he had something, but the Dolphins just jumped the route and had a big pick.

Getting the ball back with 2:31 left, Pickett had his second shot at hero. After a great fourth-down strike to his tight end Pat Freiermuth for 21 yards, it again seemed like he was going to pull this off. But after bypassing a chance to run for good yardage in the final 25 seconds, Pickett let rip a horrible decision to no Steeler receiver in sight for a game-ending interception at the goal line with 18 seconds left.

These are growing pains many rookies go through. Peyton Manning (1998) is famously on that list of quarterbacks with a lot of picks in their first four games as he actually threw 11 interceptions in his first four games. But if Pickett continues to have the turnovers while only leading the Steelers to about 12 points per four quarters of action, then I think it’s safe to say he’s going to end up more like Ryan Leaf than Peyton Manning in the NFL. At least Manning was breaking the rookie records for passing yards and touchdowns when he threw the 28 interceptions in 1998. He also showed a clear improvement in his final 10 games compared to the first six.

Things are not going to get any easier for Pickett with a trip to 6-0 Philadelphia next week. Meanwhile, the Dolphins remain a curious team after getting blanked in the second half and having some questionable clock management and decision making. It is still an incredible outlier that the Dolphins scored 28 points in the fourth quarter of the comeback win over Baltimore when they have failed to score more than 21 points in any of their other six full games.

The quarterback injuries can only work so far as an excuse for McDaniel. With the way Tua took on some contact for several hits on Sunday night, it may not be long before we are talking about injury again at that position.

Giants at Jaguars: The Best Game on Sunday?

Who could have imagined a game between two of the NFL’s worst franchises in recent years would be the best-played game in Week 7? I am not saying it is up there with Bills-Chiefs from last week, but this is the kind of game you should want to see more often.

Both teams moved the ball very well with each finishing with 27 first downs and just above 430 yards. In fact, it’s criminal the over 43.5 points did not hit in this 23-17 game as it’s only the 34th game in NFL history where both teams had 27 first downs and 430-plus yards of offense. It is the first time one of these games ended with fewer than 52 points.

But the game only had one sack and one turnover. There were three fourth-down stops. A few less penalties (21) would be nice, especially if we can ease up on the roughing the passer, but each side got a generous one.

Once it was going to be a tight game in the fourth quarter, you should have known the Jaguars were in trouble. The Giants used to be the terrible fourth-quarter team, but not this year under Brian Daboll. The Jaguars are historically terrible in any game where they don’t lead wire-to-wire and allow more than 20 points.

With the Jaguars leading 17-13 in the fourth quarter, I can’t knock Doug Pederson’s decision to go for it. But Trevor Lawrence was stopped on a badly executed quarterback sneak. Sure enough, the Giants took that stop as another opportunity for the offense to go on its fifth game-winning drive of 2022.

The Giants showed Lawrence how the QB sneak is done as they used it on the go-ahead touchdown run with 5:31 left. I can’t believe this is a real stat, but Daniel Jones is the first quarterback in NFL history to lead five game-winning drives in the first seven games of the season. There were 16 other quarterbacks to do it four times, but never 5-of-7 before this run.

With quarterback play down around the league and Jones using his legs so well – he rushed for 107 yards and the winning touchdown in this one – he is now up to No. 6 in QBR (62.6) in 2022. For real.

After the Jaguars went three-and-out, the Giants could have run out the clock, but Saquon Barkley accidentally went out of bounds to save the Jaguars some time, which was almost costly after the Giants tacked on a field goal to take a 23-17 lead.

But Lawrence had 64 seconds left to do something great. He marched the Jaguars down to the New York 17 where he fired a pass to Christian Kirk near the goal line, but the Giants showed great tackling to prevent him from reaching out for the end zone as time expired. The Jaguars were inches away from their biggest win in quite some time.

Instead, the Jaguars have now lost 39 games in a row when allowing more than 20 points. Lawrence is 1-19 when the Jaguars allow more than 11 points in a game. Lawrence is also 1-10 at fourth-quarter comeback opportunities and 2-11 at all game-winning drive opportunities, the worst records among active starters.

Before this season, Jones was the guy at the bottom of those lists with his 3-14 (.176) record at GWD opportunities. Now he is 5-1 this year, doing it in historic fashion. So, that leaves hope for Lawrence to turn it around, but this was another winnable game where he came up, quite literally, short.

Colts at Titans: AFC South Supremacy

The Colts have not won the AFC South since 2014 and it is looking like that streak will continue for another year after a fifth-straight loss to the Titans. This loss may be the worst yet because it’s not like the Tennessee offense was anything special with four field goals. The Titans finally scored their first fourth-quarter points of 2022, but they were just two field goals.

It looked like Matt Ryan and the offense figured something out last week with the quick passing game against the Jaguars. But even with their best runner (Jonathan Taylor) and receiving back (Nyheim Hines) returning to action, the offense fared worse than it did against the Titans a few weeks ago.

Ryan was panicking again at the thought of getting hit in the pocket, so he tried to throw a hot route that was intercepted for a touchdown in the first half. His second pick was also the result of trying to not get hit. Even after getting a gift fumble from Ryan Tannehill at midfield in the fourth quarter of a 16-7 game, the best the Colts could do was drive 24 yards for a field goal.

After the Titans matched it to make it 19-10, Michael Pittman fumbled a pass that was close to being incomplete and the Titans ran out the clock with their closer, Derrick Henry, who had 128 yards on the ground.

The Colts are going to be in ninth or 10th place in the AFC going into Week 8, but there is zero reason to trust this team right now.

Lions at Cowboys: Oh, So the Lions Can’t Score Anymore?

This game is one of those great examples of why you just cannot use the final score to judge the closeness of a game. Anyone betting Detroit +6.5 had to be sick on this one as it was the right side for 57 minutes. The Lions were either tied, in the lead, or trailed by no more than 4 points for the first 57 minutes of this turnover-plagued mess of a 24-6 loss as apparently Detroit is done playing historic shootouts after four games.

It did not help that top receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown left after one catch in the first half. But Jared Goff finished with four turnovers (two picks, two fumbles). Still, the costliest turnover of them all may have belonged to running back Jamaal Williams, who coughed the ball up on a first-and-goal at the 1-yard line in the fourth quarter with the Lions down 10-6.

Goff was intercepted on the next drive and the Cowboys turned that into another Ezekiel Elliott touchdown and 17-6 lead. Goff then lost another fumble on a strip-sack and the Cowboys turned that into the final touchdown with Dak Prescott getting his first of the season through the air in his return game.

The Lions have gone from leading the NFL in scoring through four games to six points in their last eight quarters. I guess that’s not that surprising with the injuries and Goff being Goff, but I really thought the Lions could be better than a 1-5 team that only beats Carson Wentz.

As for Dallas, let’s give Prescott some time to catch up. This wasn’t pretty by any means, but if he finds his 2021 groove to go with this defense, then Dallas may have something here.  

Browns at Ravens: When Both Teams Want to Choke

What do you do with two teams who can’t seem to hold on to leads and close games out? The Browns had blown a league-high three leads in the fourth quarter while the Ravens have already blown three double-digit leads after halftime.

This could have been another as not even a 23-13 deficit in the fourth quarter seemed to matter to the Browns, who got one of Jacoby Brissett’s best games this season. The offense cut the lead to 23-20, then the defense forced Justice Hill to fumble just outside the red zone with 3:12 left.

Was it going to happen again? Unfortunately, Brissett is maybe the worst option this side of Trevor Lawrence to finish off a comeback like this. He did seem to have a go-ahead touchdown pass, but Amari Cooper, another suspect player in clutch moments, was penalized for offensive pass interference to wipe out a 34-yard score. That also made the field goal 10 yards longer, and a brutal false start made it 5 yards further than that.

Rookie kicker Cade York continues to be put in difficult situations to kick critical field goals for this team. He made the game winner in Carolina in Week 1, but his 60-yard field goal was blocked by the Ravens here. I felt that the play ended several seconds before the two-minute warning, only to see the clock tick down to 1:59, costing the Browns a clock stoppage. The Ravens are up there with the Eagles for games where the home cooking on the clock operator has stood out to me over the years. However, it is possible the TV angle made this look worse as it didn’t show the ball bouncing around or when the play was finally dead. Still, it looked fishy to me as the players they showed weren’t reacting like the play was still live.

In the end, the Browns used their last remaining timeout to force a three-and-out and get the ball back with 16 seconds. The last play went down as a fumble by Donovan Peoples-Jones. The Ravens escaped with the win despite Lamar Jackson completing nine passes (none to Mark Andrews).

Cleveland coach Kevin Stefanski is 1-11 when the Browns allow at least 23 points since 2021. His only win in that time is against Matt Rhule’s Panthers, and we know Rhule was horrible in that split.

If the Browns can’t beat the Bengals at home to avoid being 2-6 at the bye with trips to Miami and Buffalo to follow, then this team can probably forget about being relevant by the time Deshaun Watson is eligible to return. My bold prediction of Houston having a better record than Cleveland for that Week 13 meeting may not be far off after all.

Hurry-Up Finish

Finally, so I can get to bed at a reasonable time, here are some quicker thoughts on the other games in Week 7.

Falcons at Bengals: This was one I’m happy about since I let good numbers change my gut feeling and it worked out. When I sat down the other day to write a little pick for this game, I was ready to go with the Falcons (+6.5) to move to 7-0 ATS. But after seeing how little pass pressure and sacks they had generated, and the terrible 2022 numbers for corner AJ Terrell, and knowing the way Joe Burrow lights it up at home, I changed my pick to the Bengals to win by a touchdown or better.

Sure enough, Burrow passed for 196 yards in the first quarter alone. He had 344 yards at halftime, and this could have been in Norm Van Brocklin (554) territory if the Falcons were equipped to put up a fight. But there was only one touchdown in the second half as the Bengals won 35-17. Burrow finished at 481 yards but that start to the game was some 2004 Colts type of stuff. Lethal.

Atlanta finished with 13 pass attempts, becoming the 11th team since the merger to throw fewer than 14 passes despite trailing by double digits at halftime and losing by at least 17 points. It’s like they’re playing a different sport.

Jets at Broncos: A pyrrhic victory for the 5-2 Jets. They outlasted Denver’s backup quarterback Brett Rypien, 16-9, but lost emerging star rookie running back Breece Hall for the season with a torn ACL. Hall barely played in the game before the injury happened, but he still managed a 62-yard touchdown run. The Jets had no other touchdowns in the game, and the offense only had four other players that gained more than 8 yards. This is a tough injury for an offense that has little kick to it, and the defense isn’t going to feast on backup quarterbacks forever. Don’t trust the Jets as anything more than fool’s gold at this point. And don’t trust the Denver Broncos for a damn thing but a low-scoring game.

Texans at Raiders: Nothing says excitement like two 1-win teams coming out of the bye. But the Houston run defense is the gift that keeps giving as Josh Jacobs hit them up for 143 yards and three touchdowns. The 38-20 final covers up that this was close throughout with the Texans leading 20-17 going into the fourth quarter. But Jacobs scored twice in the quarter to give the Raiders a 31-20 lead, then the defense intercepted Davis Mills, who was having a solid offensive day before that, for a pick-six to make it 38-20.

The late pick-six denied Jacobs the chance to set his career high in rushing for the third week in a row. He had 144 yards against the Broncos, 154 yards against the Chiefs, and now 143 against Houston. The only player to ever rush for at least 143 yards in four consecutive games was Earl Campbell back in 1980 for the Oilers.

Fun fact: Out of Derek Carr’s 31 game-winning drives, this is the one with the largest margin of victory (18) and only the third with a MOV larger than 8 points. The Raiders are the 22nd team in NFL history, and the first since 2014 Steelers vs. Bengals, to win a game by at least 18 points after entering the fourth quarter trailing.

Seahawks at Chargers: I cannot believe these two franchises played a game that was never closer than 11 points in the fourth quarter. Seattle went up 17-0 in the first quarter and the Chargers continue to struggle and rack up injuries as Mike Williams and J.C. Jackson went down in this one. Keenan Allen was limited in his return with just two catches for 11 yards.

Geno Smith outplayed Justin Herbert, and Kenneth Walker stole the show with 168 yards and two touchdown runs. He is showing exactly why I ended up picking him for the Offensive Rookie of the Year winner in August with the expectations Rashaad Penny would get hurt and he’d take over the run-heavy offense Pete Carroll wants. So far, so good.

Next week: Either the Seahawks are going to be 5-3 or the Giants are going to be 7-1 after they meet next week in the schedule’s top game between winning teams if you can believe that. The only other potential game between winning teams is Jets vs. Patriots. What a season, and no, I don’t say that to be complimentary.

NFL Stat Oddity: Week 2

~ scottkacsmar ~ 20 Comments

We still have a pretty good doubleheader to go on Monday night for Week 2, but this has already been one of the wildest weeks in NFL history. Sure, you probably hear that about 21 times a season, but this time it really does check out.

There was a 21-point comeback in the fourth quarter by the Dolphins in Baltimore, making the Ravens the first team in NFL history to score 38 points with zero turnovers at home and lose in regulation.

There was a 13-point comeback in Cleveland completely manufactured by the Jets (!) after the two-minute warning.

There was a 16-point comeback in Las Vegas with Arizona pulling off the rare 8+8 to force overtime where it won a defensive fumble return for a touchdown. Oh yeah, the Cardinals were also down 20-0 at halftime, becoming the 15th team in NFL history to win after being shut out by at least 20 points at halftime.

The world may have ended if the Atlanta Falcons completed their comeback from a 28-3 deficit against the Rams, but Marcus Mariota was intercepted in the end zone while trailing 31-25 with 1:07 left.

The week started goofy with the Chiefs kicking a game-tying field goal on the first play of the fourth quarter, then winning on a pick-six against the Chargers because tight end Gerald Everett got tired, the team left him out there anyway, and they got properly burned for it.

It also was the saddest day in the history of the AFC North with all four teams losing for the eighth time since 2002. So, while it has happened more often than all but one division, it is hard to imagine any group of losses were more heartbreaking than the ones on Sunday. Here is the total of 0-4 weeks for each division since 2002:

  • NFC West (10)
  • AFC North (8)
  • NFC East (6)
  • AFC South (5)
  • NFC North (5)
  • NFC South (3)
  • AFC West (2)
  • AFC East (0)

With two games to go, we have already had 10 close games this week. Let’s look at some of them as well as quicker views of the embarrassing blowouts (Colts?)

This season in Stat Oddity:

Dolphins at Ravens: Game of the Week (Month? Year?)

Did we witness the creation of a new power in the AFC, or will this game just be a fun footnote on the way to a Chiefs vs. Bills playoff rematch? A lot of weeks to go before that, but this fourth quarter was bananas.

After Lamar Jackson’s 79-yard touchdown run gave the Ravens a 35-14 lead going into the fourth quarter, this game reminded me of when Baltimore blew out the Chargers 34-6 last year. That really threw some cold water on the hype for the 4-1 Chargers under rookie coach Brandon Staley.

New Miami coach Mike McDaniel was not getting that hype just yet after one win over New England where the offense scored 13 points, but there were some high expectations for this year. I picked him for Coach of the Year. After this game, I think the bandwagon is about to grow, especially with Buffalo coming next week.

You win a game with Tua Tagovailoa throwing 50 times for 469 yards and six touchdowns in Baltimore? I know the defense is not anywhere close to what it used to be in Baltimore, but 469/6? Tua? Him?

But when Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill embarrass the defense with over 170 yards and two touchdowns each, that’s the scary potential of this offense. It was enough to spoil a special day by Lamar, who became the first quarterback in NFL history to have multiple games with 300 yards passing and 100 yards rushing in his career (318/119). He did not take a sack and the Ravens had no turnovers.

He did get stopped on four consecutive plays while the Dolphins were quickly making their comeback, but he rebounded to lead a go-ahead field goal drive with 2:18 left. That’s an eternity given the way Miami was hitting chunk plays. Sure enough, Tua delivered to Waddle again for a 7-yard touchdown to take a 42-38 lead with 14 seconds left.

Jackson’s Hail Mary came up short to end it. By my count, this is the 10th fourth-quarter comeback win from a deficit of 21+ points in NFL history. The last was when the Eagles did it to the Giants in 2010, winning 38-31 on DeSean Jackson’s punt return touchdown.

Tagovailoa joins the odd company of Neil Lomax and Wade Wilson as the only three quarterbacks to cap off a 21+ point 4QC with a game-winning touchdown pass in the fourth quarter. Troy Aikman threw one for Dallas in overtime against the 1999 Redskins in Week 1.

So, it doesn’t necessarily mean Tua is going to turn into Joe Montana, but this is really encouraging stuff from the quarterback position. One could say the kind of game that a Dan Marino fan would appreciate. Quick, someone come up with a good nickname for Waddle & Hill.

But when I said Hill is worth a couple wins to the Chiefs because of his rare talent, this is exactly the kind of game I’m talking about. This comeback probably does not take place with any other wide receiver. Now do the Chiefs still have that ability to pull out a tough game? We’ll see. They didn’t look great against the Chargers on Thursday. But if the Dolphins can keep this up and start games better, this is going to set up a very intriguing race in the AFC that goes beyond just the Bills and Chiefs.

God knows we need it with the way the Broncos, Colts, Bengals, and Raiders are shitting the bed so far this season.

Jets at Browns: Only in Cleveland

The Jets were my upset special this week, but even I was shocked to find out that they had won this game given the 30-17 deficit so late. I saw the Jets recover an onside kick, but I was still lost in the ending to Dolphins-Ravens and didn’t find out what Cleveland did until several minutes after the game ended.

It was a colossal choke that took all three phases of the team, but it’s also such a Cleveland thing to do. Since 2001, just three NFL teams have lost a game while leading by more than 10 points and the other team getting the ball back in the final three minutes.

All three of those losses belong to Cleveland (click pic to enlarge).

You can’t blame just one person, so let’s blame a few. Let’s start with Kareem Hunt, who twice ran out of bounds to stop the clock when he should have been trying to slide down in bounds. The second time was the most egregious because there was a hole to slide down for the first down that would have ended the game. The Jets were out of timeouts and the clock would have went to the two-minute warning. Game over. But Hunt didn’t do what he needed to and the clock stopped at 2:02.

On the very next play, Nick Chubb decided to run for his third touchdown, and if the Jets really just “allowed” him to do it, then they are geniuses. This was the only hope they had left. This is something else I’ll bitch about once or twice a season, and the Browns proved with the worst-case scenario possible exactly why I’m right and you shouldn’t risk this.

By scoring with 1:55 left, Chubb extended the game instead of ending it. I still think what Hunt did was equally bad if not worse, and Chubb does not deserve the brunt of the criticism. But he had no business scoring that touchdown, which set up an extra point that was missed to keep it a 30-17 game. Another reason you don’t score the touchdown as now you’re open to losing by a point. So now the special teams are in on the mess to come.

Next, it was the defense’s turn. The last thing you could do was give up a quick one, and we know Joe Flacco has some experience at throwing up a bomb in these spots. He hadn’t been able to get big plays in eight quarters, but somehow with the game still alive he caught corner Denzel Ward looking in the backfield and corked a wide-open 66-yard touchdown bomb to Corey Davis on a drive that took 33 seconds. Inexcusable.

You know the onside kick was coming next, and that’s where many of these comebacks stall since they are so hard to get. But the Jets got this one and suddenly Flacco had 80 seconds from midfield to win this game. He did exactly that with a good drive and a 15-yard strike to rookie Garrett Wilson with 22 seconds left.

The Jets led 31-30 after the extra point. The Cleveland offense had such a nice day with Jacoby Brissett showing better precision, Amari Cooper getting his first 100-yard game and touchdown, and the running game putting up big numbers for the second week in a row. And none of it mattered because they got greedy and botched their previous drive that should have ended the game. Then the special teams and defense screwed up multiple plays. Finally, Brissett’s desperate pass while out of timeouts was intercepted to end the game.

What can you say about Flacco? He had himself a day with 307 yards and four touchdown passes, and in the process, he picked up his 20th fourth-quarter comeback win. He is the 34th quarterback to do so, and it’s taken him the second-most games (195) to get there ahead of only Brett Favre.

But I will say Flacco has been involved in three really incredible comebacks from the 2012 AFC divisional win in Denver to the 2013 explosive ending in the snow against Minnesota to this one.

The fact that the two most incredible wins of the Zach Wilson era were started by Mike White (Bengals’ comeback last year) and Flacco here are not encouraging signs for him. But we have to see him this season. We know this team isn’t going anywhere with Flacco.

This was the type of absurd comeback you see maybe once every decade in the NFL.

But only against Cleveland. That’s the key.

Cardinals at Raiders: 8 + 8 + Too Much Grit

After the Cardinals failed to show up for the first half and trailed 20-0, I had no expectations for the second half. I figured Josh McDaniels would run Josh Jacobs a lot and the team would just cruise to a win to get to 1-1.

But this was in some ways the most shocking comeback of the day because of how little trust we’ve had in Arizona, and how many plays they had to string together to pull this off. When Kyler Murray threw incomplete on a 4th-and-1 at the Raiders 11 with 12:31 left in a 23-7 game, I decided to take out the trash. This didn’t look competitive anymore.

But McDaniels’ play-calling has been so suspect through two games, and the next drive that saw Derek Carr throw three incompletions and burn nine seconds should be getting crucified here. Do coaches not understand how important it is to burn clock anymore? Sometimes, even that three runs and a punt drive that takes two minutes is more valuable than whatever that was by the Raiders.

Maybe it wasn’t 28-9, but 23-7 is hard because few teams ever pull off 8+8 in this league. At least one of those two-point conversions usually fail, so they end up needing three possessions.

But to Murray’s credit, he hung in there on the first touchdown drive and capped it off with a scramble for the two-point conversion that maybe only he could do right now. The Raiders burned a little more time, but Murray had 4:43 to answer a 23-15 deficit.

As I seem to write a long rant about a couple times a season, the Cardinals were not in a super hurry to get the touchdown given the “information” that they were down eight points. It ended up being an insanely tough drive that had to overcome three fourth-down situations, and on the final play at the 3-yard line, Murray scrambled for another touchdown with no time left.

But even then, a secondo two-point conversion was needed just to go to overtime. Murray found A.J. Green in the end zone and the veteran held on for a great catch to tie the game. By my count, the Cardinals are just the fourth team in NFL history to win a game after erasing a 16-point deficit in the fourth quarter with two touchdowns and two two-point conversions:

  • 2004 49ers vs. Cardinals (trailed 28-12, won 31-28 in overtime)
  • 2016 Patriots vs. Falcons (first cut 28-9 to 28-12, then won 34-28 in overtime)
  • 2021 Ravens vs. Colts (trailed 25-9, won 31-25 in overtime)
  • 2022 Cardinals at Raiders (trailed 23-7, won 29-23 in overtime)

But even in overtime the Cardinals looked dead in the water after Murray threw incomplete on a fourth-and-1 at the Las Vegas 37. Carr just needed a couple first downs for field-goal range, and Hunter Renfrow picked up a third down before fumbling. The team recovered it though. However, just two plays later, Renfrow fumbled again, and this time it was scooped up and returned 59 yards for a game-deciding touchdown. Unbelievable.

This was just the sixth time in NFL overtime history that a team won by returning a fumble for a touchdown. That includes the playoffs, as Arizona fans should enjoy (2009 NFC wild card vs. Green Bay).

Just a miraculous win from one of the teams you’d least expect to pick things up after a 20-0 first half. But both teams are guilty of bad coaching to start this season.

Falcons at Rams: The Most Dangerous Lead in the NFL

The Rams kept Matthew Stafford clean (one sack), got Allen Robinson much more involved with a touchdown, and kept rolling with Cooper Kupp on the way to a 31-10 lead in the fourth quarter.

And yet, they almost blew what was once a 28-3 lead to the team that will take that score to their graves. Having a bet on Rams -10, I just knew bad things were coming once the Rams failed at the 1-yard line early in the fourth quarter with a 28-10 lead. They settled for a field goal to make it 31-10, but no lead was truly safe on Sunday.

The Falcons got one touchdown drive, then blocked a punt in devastating fashion – that punter got crushed – and returned that for a touchdown. I liked the call to go for two, and Drake London really is showing why he was the first wideout off the board in the draft. His catch made it a 31-25 game, Kupp actually made a mistake and fumbled, and this shit was really going to happen a week after the Falcons blew a 26-10 lead in the fourth quarter.

Two 21-point fourth-quarter leads blown by home teams expected to make the playoffs in the same day? Insane.

It is hard to say the Falcons hit us with a “they are who we thought they were!” since we thought this team was going to get crushed like it often did in 2021. But this team has been fighting the first two weeks and may eventually get some wins to show for it. It just wasn’t happening this time as Marcus Mariota threw an interception in the end zone to Jalen Ramsey with 1:07 left. D’oh.

The Rams still had to take an intentional safety after they wouldn’t dare punt again after the way the Falcons attacked the last one. That’s how it got to 31-27, but Mariota was sacked on the final play before he could try a Hail Mary, and Aaron Donald was there for a cheap fumble recovery.

We may be talking about the defense being the most unreliable part of this Los Angeles team, but it’d be nice to see them play a normal game that isn’t 31-10 in the fourth quarter first.

Buccaneers at Saints: I Hope Jameis’ Cousin in The Afghanistan Didn’t Watch This

No recent defense makes Tom Brady look so bad like Dennis Allen’s Saints since 2020, but too bad the offense always seems to be injured for these games. Beyond Alvin Kamara missing the game, Jameis Winston played with a bad back and it showed. While no stranger to mistakes, he really let it all hang out in the fourth quarter after a tight battle that saw the Saints shut out Brady for another half on the heels of last year’s 9-0 win in Tampa Bay.

But in a 3-3 game in the fourth quarter, things just started to crumble for Winston, who took six sacks and ended three straight drives with an interception, gift-wrapping the last 10 points to Tampa Bay in a 20-10 loss.

Had it not been for that last New Orleans touchdown, Todd Bowles’ defense would be sitting on two games of allowing six points and scoring seven with a pick-six in this one. Still, a net 6 points allowed in two games is really strong work. Now we’ll see if they can do that to Aaron Rodgers and the Packers, which would be a repeat of what they did to a far better Green Bay machine in 2020.

Also, I know it looks impossible for Brady to smile these days, but the amount of bitching he did on Sunday was worse than usual. I am getting a 2019 Patriots vibe already with this team. Once the defense stops playing at a historic level, expect mediocrity. We’ll see how long they can hold out with the Packers and Chiefs coming up next. But frankly, all three of those teams look weaker this season.

Patriots at Steelers: The Meh Bowl

Well, the good news is the Steelers had the most respectable loss in the AFC North on Sunday. But for as long as I have watched the NFL (mid-90s), Patriots vs. Steelers has always meant something in the AFC. You have to go back to 1991 to find the last meeting between the two where neither made the playoffs or had a winning record. Could these teams be headed that way this year? They are no longer the favorite or even second favorite in their divisions.

The game itself reflected a lot of that “meh” rebranding for these teams in the wake of recent departures of their Hall of Fame quarterbacks. But I will take Mac Jones over Mitch Trubisky in a heartbeat. Jones at least found his receivers, Jakobi Meyers and Nelson Agholor, down the field on multiple occasions. Agholor made a fantastic 44-yard touchdown catch in the second quarter. Trubisky was picked and could not move the ball well, leading the offense to 30 points in two games so far.

The Pittsburgh defense basically has to play perfect for this team to win, and that is asking for too much without T.J. Watt. But the sequence of the game was in the third quarter. The defense dropped a second Jones interception at midfield. That led to a punt, which was muffed by the Steelers, which led to a 10-yard touchdown drive for the Patriots and 17-6 lead.

Despite Trubisky leading the offense’s only touchdown drive of the game, he had no follow-up act in a 17-14 game. On a couple of third downs, he seemed determined to go to Najee Harris. Neither play worked. Neither play made much sense with the other weapons the Steelers have. The Patriots were able to run out the final six minutes on the clock and win the game.

I really think Mike Tomlin has to look at this Week 3 game in Cleveland on Thursday night as a final audition for Trubisky. He is not the future for this team. He is not shining to help them turn him for a draft pick if some other team’s starter is injured. Maybe Kenny Pickett won’t be any better. Maybe he’ll be worse. But I’d just like to see something happen there because Trubisky isn’t making it happen on the field. People wanted Ben Roethlisberger benched after last year’s slow start, but this is the same chickenshit offense being run by offensive coordinator Matt Canada.

We can make jokes about the Patriots using Matt Patricia and Joe Judge to run the offense with Josh McDaniels gone, but based on the way these units performed on Sunday, the real joke is that the Steelers won’t fix this broken offense.

Bengals at Cowboys: Another Backup Beats Cincinnati

I said all week Cooper Rush and the Cowboys would surprise people and the Bengals are overrated, but even I didn’t expect this upset, wire-to-wire win for Dallas. Hell, I thought Brett Maher missed that 50-yard field goal at the buzzer, but apparently it did sneak in there for the win. Bengals are now 0-2 after watching teams execute long field goals against them while they couldn’t get an extra point or 29-yard field goal to work. What a bummer.

But once again, Mike McCarthy deserves some credit for getting a backup quarterback ready to play. The Cowboys still have offensive talent despite the injuries, and we should just admit that Dak Prescott played poorly in Week 1. I am not surprised the offense gutted out 20 points at home against a defense that couldn’t stop Mitch Trubisky in overtime. Not to mention this team lost to Mike White last year. Why not get an adequate game from Cooper Rush with CeeDee Lamb, Tony Pollard, Ezekiel Elliott, Dalton Schultz, and Noah Brown on his side?

Micah Parsons can do his best T.J. Watt impersonation and lead that defense to a good day to keep the score down and the game winnable. They did exactly that with six sacks of Joe Burrow, who became the 11th quarterback to start a season by taking at least six sacks in consecutive games. Russell Wilson was the last to do it in 2018, so it’s not something exclusive to bums, but it is not a good sign for the new offensive line or Burrow’s development. He is going to see plenty of good pass rushers this season and will need to do a better job of cutting down those sacks.

But hats off to the Cowboys for not giving up a single 20-yard play to the Bengals. They were good against Tampa Bay last week too. Now if they can just get Dak healthy and get someone like Michael Gallup back, then maybe we have something here. But the good news is Rush was able to lead a game-winning drive, his second in two NFL starts. He might be able to hold the fort until Prescott can return.

Texans at Broncos: Can Hackett Hack It in the NFL?

If the Texans had just a little more punch to their offense, they would be 2-0 right now with wins over what are apparently two slow starters in the Colts and Broncos. Maybe these teams just aren’t going to be as good as we thought they’d be with the quarterback changes.

But one thing I warned for both the Colts and Broncos is that Matt Ryan and Russell Wilson are not taking over teams with as much elite talent like the 2009 Vikings (Brett Favre), 2012 Broncos (Peyton Manning), 2020 Buccaneers (Tom Brady), and 2021 Rams (Matthew Stafford). They would be improvements over the quarterbacks that were there, hopefully get good defensive support, and give them an edge in close games as they are two of the most prolific ever at accumulating comebacks and game-winning drives.

Well, Wilson got his first Denver comeback win, but he played one of his shittiest first three quarters to end up in that situation. But I will not blast him for this section. He threw the game-winning touchdown and got that done. Speaking of elite talent, the team lost wide receiver Jerry Jeudy and corner Patrick Surtain II during the game, which certainly hurts.

But it’s the coaching. Jesus Christ, Nathaniel Hackett has had a coaching start so uninspiring that I think I had more faith in Urban Meyer this time a year ago. The 2022 Broncos are the sixth team on record to have at least a dozen penalties in their first two games. It’s the procedure of getting the play in on time that is so jacked right now as the Broncos had two more delay of game penalties on kicks. It’s the horseshit calls on 3rd-and-1, like giving the ball to tight end Andrew Beck on an end around, or all the terrible passes and decisions inside the 2-yard line.

Like the Colts, the Broncos are doing this against Seattle and Houston, two teams projected to be among the worst in the NFL this year. We saw how well Seattle handled the 49ers on Sunday, a team they owned with Wilson.

Maybe the grass isn’t always greener on the other side. We’ll see what happens. All I know is if you see someone bring up Peyton starting 1-2 in Denver in 2012, just shut them up quickly. That team lost to a 13-3 Atlanta team that was the No. 1 seed, and they lost to a 12-4 Houston team that started 11-1 and was leading the AFC into December. The Broncos also scored 46 points in those two games with rallies that came up a score short. It’s not the same.

It was never going to be that good. But this has been embarrassing so far for Hackett and frankly for Wilson too.

Panthers at Giants: Updating the Rhules

Oh, don’t mind me, just updating the pathetic Matt Rhule records in Carolina after another game was lost at the end. This time it was a 19-16 defeat against the 2-0 Giants:

  • 0-15 in game-winning drive opportunities
  • 1-25 when allowing 17 or more points
  • 0-22 when allowing more than 21 points
  • 2-24 when not leading by at least 7 points at halftime
  • 3-25 when not leading by double digits at halftime

I could be wrong on this, but I think this is the first time the Giants have won consecutive games after trailing by at least seven points in the second half since 1970 (Weeks 8-9). Imagine how many decades it would take Rhule to do that.

Hurry-Up Finish

Since I would like to get to bed, here are some quick thoughts on the other four games that were not close.

Colts at Jaguars: If the Colts aren’t going to bother showing up in Jacksonville, then I’m not going to bother giving them a deeper recap. I knew this game was trouble, and I may have changed my pick if I knew earlier that Michael Pittman was out. He’s the only reliable receiver for Matt Ryan at this moment. The Colts have started poorly under Frank Reich in the past, but I would be really alarmed that they were pushed around for all but one quarter so far by the Texans and Jaguars. What’s a team like the Colts going to do to them? Oh yeah, we’ll find out next week. Something tells me it won’t be 19-13 this time. As for Trevor Lawrence, apparently hosting the Colts is him in his element in the NFL. His two best games are arguably both Indy games at home.

Commanders at Lions: Maybe Amon-Ra St. Brown has some Antonio Brown in him. Hopefully just the good parts like how he racks up catches week after week.

He did it for an eighth game in a row with his best NFL game yet. Jared Goff threw four touchdowns against Jack Del Rio’s overrated defense filled with first-round picks. Carson Wentz made some plays after it was 22-0, but I feel like this one encapsulates Washington’s day the best:

Seahawks at 49ers: It was sad to see Trey Lance break his ankle just five quarters into his first season as the starting quarterback. When I wrote in my 49ers preview that him getting injured in September was on the table for how his season could go, I certainly did not want to see that happen. Hopefully he can come back strong without complications. It puts Jimmy Garoppolo right back in the QB1 role. He was the best backup in the league, but let’s see if he can make the third time the charm should this team get to the playoffs. As for Seattle, well shit. That’s the kind of pathetic performance – their only score was a blocked field goal for a touchdown – that I expected in these matchups when I said 5-12 at best. My confidence in Seattle keeping it close like usual against San Francisco was not rewarded. It’s the first time the Seahawks lost by double digits to the 49ers since the 2011 opener.

Bears at Packers: For the second year in a row, the Packers followed a brutal Week 1 loss with an easy Week 2 win at home against one of their NFC North stooges. As long as they can do that, then you can’t count them out from a high playoff seed. But a real test for this offense comes in Tampa Bay next week. As for Chicago, do they really trust Justin Fields if he has nine pass attempts (plus three sacks) almost 58 minutes into a game they were trailing 27-10? That was not a good look for him.

We survived another Bears-Packers game in prime time. Bring on Titans-Bills and Vikings-Eagles, because they should be much better than the Week 3 island game slate (Steelers-Browns, Broncos-49ers, Cowboys-Giants).