Tag: Dolphins

Ryan Tannehill and the Most Unique Wins Ever

~ Scott ~ 3 Comments

Can Ryan Tannehill actually be having the breakout year we’ve joked about forever in his eighth season? On Sunday, the Titans finally won a big game against the Colts thanks in large part to a blocked field goal that was returned 63 yards for a touchdown to break a 17-17 tie with 5:02 remaining. Tannehill added a touchdown pass for Tennessee’s 31-17 win to improve to 7-5.

It was just three weeks ago when the 4-5 Titans turned their season around after a Tannehill-led comeback held up against the Chiefs. The Titans blocked Harrison Butker’s 52-yard field goal attempt at the end of that one. Tennessee is 5-1 with Tannehill starting and has scored the game-winning points in the fourth quarter in four of those games.

Having tracked every close game of Tannehill’s career, I know success in these moments hasn’t always been there for him. But after this recent spurt he has improved to 19-27 (.413) in game-winning drive opportunities, a winning percentage good for 12th among his peers.

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One thing that I’ve always thought stood out in Tannehill’s clutch history is an unusual number of games that were won with a non-offensive score — let’s call that a NOS — such as a safety or return score by the defense or special teams. I’ve been working on organizing such games better in my database and looked into some of the unique wins in the file I maintain for Pro Football Reference, which currently has 4,715 games credited to quarterbacks for close wins.

This is already the seventh time a Tannehill-led team has won a game with an unique score in his career. I charted the games in chronological order below. Four times he was credited with a fourth-quarter comeback, but no game-winning drive because of the NOS that ultimately won the game. Two other times in Miami he got a win with a game-winning kickoff return touchdown, so the offense never even had a GWD opportunity. Then in Sunday’s game, the Titans punted on their only possession in a tied game before the blocked FG return TD ultimately put the Titans ahead for good. So that would go down as a no decision (ND) in his record, which is something I plan to add soon.

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This is some fortunate/fluky/wild stuff. Sunday’s return is the only NOS to win a game in 2019 so far, but it gets weirder than that.

Since Tannehill has been in the league (2012), his teams have produced:

  • One of the two games won by a blocked FG return TD
  • Two of the four games won by a kickoff return TD
  • One of the three games won by a punt return TD
  • Both of the games won by a safety

If this was Tom Brady, the joke would be that he willed his teammates to do these things, but this is just Ryan Tannehill. The fact that it’s not someone like Brady is surprising just from the sheer number of games won by that team. Even the likes of Peyton Manning, Drew Brees and Brett Favre only had three unique wins in their careers.

I found a few other quarterbacks in my database with seven unique entries before I realized they were credited for comebacks in games that ended in ties prior to an overtime system. Roman Gabriel and Charley Johnson each had seven such games. So after weeding that out, I could only find two quarterbacks to come close to Tannehill’s seven unique wins and they combine for eight between them with four a piece.

Phil Simms (4 for NYG) – His unique wins for the Giants included a pair of pick-6 winners, a fumble return TD by Harry Carson, and a blocked punt returned for a TD against the 1988 Redskins. A blocked punt touchdown is one of the few things Tannehill is missing.

Trent Dilfer (1 for BAL, 2 for SEA, 1 for SF) – Does it surprise you that none of Dilfer’s happened in Tampa Bay? The Baltimore one is infamous since it was a 2000 AFC divisional playoff game in Tennessee. With the score tied 10-10, Al Del Greco’s FG was blocked and returned for a TD. In Seattle, Dilfer had a non-offensive game-winning field goal win a game against San Diego (2001) after a 64-yard kick return put the team in great field position late. In 2004 against the Dolphins, Seattle won the game on a pick 6 thrown by A.J. Feeley with just under a minute left. Finally, with the 2007 49ers, Dilfer picked up an overtime win in Arizona after Kurt Warner fumbled in the end zone for a game-ending touchdown. It’s also surprising that Tannehill doesn’t have a win with a simple fumble return TD, but he’s still just 31 years old so we’ll see…

I have no idea why the football gods have chosen such an unremarkable QB to give this many gifts to over the years, but I know it is one of the few things I’ll remember him for. And who knows, if the Titans continue this run and make the playoffs with a potential No. 6 at No. 3 rematch in Kansas City, we might just see another unique score win the game at Cursed Arrowhead.

 

NFL Week 2 Predictions: Mono vs. Stereo Edition

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

My gut still tells me Week 2 is arguably the hardest to predict in a season since you’re trying to weigh your preseason expectations with that 1/16th of reality from a week ago. What’s real and what’s opponent-based fluff? Some injuries are already real this year, and that can change things for  teams, but I want to see if Lamar Jackson is the new sophomore demigod QB, if the Browns are actually still disappointing, and if the Bears just had another one of their one-year wonder seasons in 2018.

Frankly, there’s a lot of stuff I want to see pan out, so let’s just go over a few select Week 2 games.

Vikings at Packers (-3)

Is the Green Bay defense really that improved, or was Mitchell Trubisky just god-awful bad in Week 1? Can the Packers even prepare much for the Minnesota passing offense after Kirk Cousins threw just 10 passes last week? This was a fantastic game in Lambeau last year that ended in a tie. The Vikings had horrible special teams that day and I felt like Cousins outplayed Rodgers and should have got the win. I’m going with this improved Minnesota team to put the clamps on Rodgers again and for the Vikings to get the upset road win.

Patriots at Dolphins (+19)

A-Fucking-C East I tell ya. What a legacy this division has behind the Patriots. Last year it was Buffalo as a 16.5-point underdog in Week 3 to Minnesota, but the Bills actually won that game. Now the Patriots are a 19-point favorite in Miami, the biggest spread in September since the Seahawks were a 20-point favorite against the 2013 Jaguars (Seattle won 45-17).

Teams favored by more than 14 points in September are 6-14-2 ATS and 18-4 SU since 1978.

As for the Patriots specifically (all months), they are 0-5 ATS when favored by more than 17 points. All but one of those games came in the 2007 season. It’s still worth mentioning that the Patriots are 10-1 ATS when favored by 15.5 to 17 points since 2001. That’s an excellent record as the only game they didn’t cover was the 2008 opener when Tom Brady tore his ACL against the Chiefs.

So the Patriots usually don’t cover spreads this large, and I think -19 should piss every person off in Miami. Of course, that’s assuming anyone there still gives a damn after a housecleaning offseason and a 59-10 destruction last week when they made the Baltimore passing offense look all world and even were destroyed on the ground as well in one of the worst openers ever for a team.

The 2019 Dolphins might be looking to set a record for least effort in a season in NFL history.

Now Belichick’s former assistants have had some success against him, including wins by Eric Mangini (2006 Jets), Josh McDaniels (2009 Broncos) and Matt Patricia (2018 Lions) in the past. Mike Vrabel (2018 Titans) also got a big win over his former head coach last year. The problem with Brian Flores is I just don’t think he’s cut out for this job and his team seems to be quitting on him in record time. I originally thought in my season preview that this would be Miami’s lone highlight of the season as Ryan Fitzpatrick would throw for 350 and the Patriots would drop another shocker in Miami. However, after the way these teams played last week I just can’t see that happening, and we haven’t even mentioned the destructive force named Antonio Brown, who still has some hours to cause another ruckus and not actually make his team debut.

With or without Brown, the Patriots are going to win this game with ease, though I think I’d be all over the “Patriots win by 19-24” bet in this one as I can see it being very close to the Vegas mark.

Seattle at Pittsburgh (-3.5)

I think it’s an advantage for Pittsburgh to get the Seahawks at 10:00 A.M. PST, because I remember the 2007 and 2011 meetings where the Steelers caught them sleepwalking early, winning 21-0 and 24-0 in seasons that still resulted in the postseason for Seattle.

However, those teams didn’t have Russell Wilson at QB. The good news for Pittsburgh is that the Seahawks still insist on running the ball so much on early downs, leading to Wilson having to be a magician on 3rd down and in the 4th quarter. We know he can be, and I wouldn’t be surprised if this game comes down to the final play, but I think the Pittsburgh defense will play much better at home this week against a more old-school offense. We know the Pittsburgh offense also plays better at home generally, and it’s hard to not do better than the 3-point output last week. I think people selling this offense after one game in NE are premature. The Steelers had four drives in a row where they just needed a yard to continue and failed every time by calling really stupid plays or not holding onto the ball. Donte Moncrief had a horrific debut and the Steelers have to get Vance McDonald and James Washington more involved. I think JuJu Smith-Schuster will be fine and Ben Roethlisberger should like what he saw with Andy Dalton throwing for over 400 yards against the new Seattle secondary (in Seattle even) last week.

I had the Steelers winning in Week 2 last year, but Patrick Mahomes carved them up with 6 TD passes. I don’t think Wilson will be allowed to be that great in this spot, but I still think the Steelers are in a dangerous spot to fall to 0-2 here if they aren’t sharp early. I can see this coming down to a last-second field goal win or a straight up loss. Also, Wilson has only lost 4 games out of 126 by more than 9 points. That’s why I love the teaser with Seattle +9.5.

Chiefs at Raiders (+7)

I would put the Chiefs on upset alert this week as they go on the road for the second game in a row. Tyreek Hill is out and Patrick Mahomes was limited a bit after an injury scare in Jacksonville. He didn’t attack deep and may not do much without Hill active as well. I still think he’ll keep his points streak (26+ in every game) alive, but Derek Carr can score on this defense too. He has the last couple of years at home and looked good last week as well. I won’t pick the Raiders to win, but I like them to cover.

Bears at Broncos (+2)

In my season preview I thought this was a lock for Denver at home, but now I’m not so sure after how these teams played last week. Sure, Trubisky and the offense sucked, but the defense still looked 2018 caliber. That’s bad news since Joe Flacco still looked 2013-2018 caliber, and the vaunted Denver pass rush did absolutely nothing against Oakland. Now the game does switch to Mile High where the Broncos are amazing in September, and Vic Fangio should know the Bears very well after being there for four seasons. So I still like some of those matchups, and I will admit that while Flacco was no fun to watch, he finished with a fair stat line and even had an easy TD dropped.

So I think I’m still leaning towards Denver at home, but it’s nowhere near the lock I felt it was going to be. I guess it basically comes down to which struggling QB do you expect to fold more against an elite pass rusher (Mack or Von).

Browns at Jets (+7)

This was a fun game last year as it turned out to be Baker Mayfield’s NFL debut (off the bench). It could have been even better this year if these two teams were looking to turn the tide an AFC where New England and Pittsburgh have reigned for so long. Of course, it’s only Week 2 and this looks like a shitshow already. The Browns were embarrassed at home by Tennessee last week and the Jets blew a 16-0 lead to Buffalo and lost Sam Darnold to mono.

Good luck, Adam Gase. You’re starting Trevor Siemian, though it’s hard to think he can be any worse than Darnold’s dink-and-dunk performance a week ago. The Jets also lost Quincy Enunwa for the whole year again, and there are other notable injuries with C.J. Mosley and Le’Veon Bell banged up.

The spread still looks a little high here as I’m not sure we can trust the Browns just yet, especially on the road where they almost never win this decade. Sure, it’s the Baker era and things are different, but as last week showed, they haven’t earned our trust just yet.

NFL Week 2 Predictions

I tend to believe in regression to the mean almost to a fault. So when I start a season 12-4 ATS, I expect a bloodbath in Week 2 to even things out. As I went over in the above games, not a lot of confidence flowing here, but these are my picks:

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I loved Panthers by 1-6 on TNF, and it likely would have worked if they called a QB sneak with Cam instead of the atrocity they used on 4th-and-inches.

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2016 NFL Wild Card Predictions

~ Scott ~ 1 Comment

It’s playoff time, so let’s start crushing bad narratives and picking winners.

Oakland at Houston

Okay, so maybe the playoffs don’t actually start until Saturday evening. We have to spend three hours watching one of these teams line up to be slaughtered in New England next week. Seriously, this is not the caliber of playoff game we have come to expect, and it’s certainly the worst on paper that I can ever recall. Of course, injuries to three different quarterbacks in the last two weeks is how we’ve gotten to Connor Cook (first start!) against Brock Osweiler. I’d like to think we’ll see a lot of DeAndre Hopkins and Amari Cooper bailing out bad throws, but I frankly doubt either quarterback hits 250 passing yards. This needs to be a Lamar Miller game if you’re Houston, and a Khalil Mack game if you’re Oakland. Mack sacked Osweiler five times in Denver last year and had a big strip-sack in the end zone. He needs to create a splash play like that again to get some points for his team in what should be a low-scoring game. Frankly, I thought Houston should have won the matchup in Mexico City, but Bill O’Brien coached a horrible game and the referees didn’t help either. So I already think Houston, one of the worst playoff teams since 1989, had a decent shot in this matchup to begin with, but should be able to get the home win by relying on its defense against a complete unknown in Cook. Oakland’s offensive line and running backs are certainly good enough to carry Cook to a 13-10 win should that be the case, but I just feel like Oakland’s defense is not reliable enough to keep the score that low. Osweiler might also be surprisingly not horrific, and hell, he can’t be any worse than what Brian Hoyer did in this spot a year ago, right? Fuck, why are we always starting the playoffs with the Texans?

This is all Indianapolis’ fault.

Final: Raiders 13, Texans 20

Detroit at Seattle

Most of us have been trained to expect the Lions to lose this game. They already have the longest playoff losing streak in NFL history, and Seattle has clearly been one of the premiere teams in recent seasons, especially at home. However, I give Matthew Stafford a fighting chance after seeing him have a few successful moments against the Legion of Boom, which is just not the same without Earl Thomas. What do I tend to say beats Seattle? Short, quick throws combined with a willingness to make the big play down the field. That about sums up Stafford to a tee in Jim Bob Cooter’s offense. Yeah, he’s gone to a more dink-and-dunk attack, and Calvin Johnson is no longer there for the spectacular catch, but Stafford has done well to get more receivers involved and he’ll still make the occasional side-arm throw or risk that most passers won’t take. So he’s the right quarterback against Seattle without Thomas, and Eric Ebron needs to really step up since you figure Golden Tate will against his former team, and Anquan Boldin usually seizes these opportunities well. The white running back may not make much traction, but the Seahawks will respect him, including Michael Bennett.

Meanwhile, it’s really a matter of the Seahawks being able to flip the switch or not. The DVOA dynasty is dead. Seattle finished 9th in DVOA after leading the league four years in a row. Russell Wilson’s early injuries hampered his play, but the offense has still continued to sputter on the ground all year, and the recent loss of Tyler Lockett hurts. The defense has gone without Michael Bennett at times, and now Thomas is done. It’s just not going to be the same team when the superstars are not healthy. That’s just a fact of the game. So while I think Seattle should win at home, an upset wouldn’t shock me one bit. The competitive streak died at 98 games this year. The Packers completely blew this team out already. And yeah, Detroit likes to hang around in the fourth quarter, though the eight comeback wins are a little misleading. Seven of Detroit’s comebacks have been from a 1-4 point deficit, and only one was a 7-point deficit (Rams). If Seattle can get up double digits, it’s likely over, but can you really count on this offense to do that right now? Sure, the Detroit pass defense just allowed the worst completion percentage in NFL history, but you can always get Wilson to go off script and hold onto the ball, opening up the potential for sacks to stall drives. I see a pretty competitive game here, and I know the illegal bat penalty that was missed a year ago is going to be on some Lions’ minds, but I’m still going Seattle.

Final: Lions 16, Seahawks 24

Miami at Pittsburgh

I already put 3700 words down on this game for my FO preview, so please check that out. Basically, I think Pittsburgh has too many weapons for Miami to shut the offense down (unless they injure Roethlisberger again). It does sound like Ladarius Green might not play again, but the point still stands that the Steelers are at home and they’re finally healthy, so the pressure is on them to perform. As for Miami, I wouldn’t count out Matt Moore playing well, but I think Adam Gase needs to show trust in him. If the Dolphins come out trying to establish Ajayi early and often, then I think that plays into the strength of the Pittsburgh defense, and if the offense is doing its part, then the Dolphins could see things snowball quickly on the scoreboard. They have to start well and stay balanced. Pittsburgh just needs to protect the ball better and should get this win, but I sure as hell wouldn’t bet them with the 10-point spread. After all, this is a Mike Tomlin team in a game it’s expected to win comfortably. No thanks.

Final: Dolphins 17, Steelers 24

New York Giants at Green Bay

This is the most interesting game of the weekend. One that can go many different ways, and I honestly believe this could be the most pivotal game of the 2016 postseason. The winner here just might go all the way. Lambeau Field lost its postseason mystique years ago, and the Giants are a big reason for that. You know damn well Eli Manning won’t be bothered by the situation, but we have no idea how someone like Odell Beckham Jr. will handle his first playoff game. Does he go off like a Steve Smith or turtle up like a Marvin Harrison? The matchup is certainly good with Green Bay’s damaged secondary, but all year we have wondered why the Giants aren’t scoring more despite the talent on offense. This team brings the best defense to the playoffs, and the Giants’ DVOA variance is the smallest of any team since 1989. It’s basically always a close, low-scoring game where the defense has to hold on at the end. The Giants are 11-2 in close games this year. If you’re just a football fan, you’d love nothing more than to see Aaron Rodgers with the ball late in a 4-6 point game against this defense. But the Giants have to get to that lead first, and it’s certainly doable with the standouts in the secondary (Landon Collins, Janoris Jenkins, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie). These guys can cover Green Bay’s receivers, and they already forced Rodgers into one of his worst games of the season, at home nonetheless. Of course, Rodgers can still buy time and no matter how good your secondary is, receivers will get open. This pass rush is not on the 2007 or 2011 Giants level when they had guys like Michael Strahan, Osi Umenyiora and Justin Tuck. This is more of a coverage defense, so Eli better bring some points to the table.

My line on Eli has been that he’s only able to make the playoffs when his team is good, and only able to win there when his team is playing great. The Giants are 0-3 in the playoffs when they haven’t gone on their two miracle SB runs. This is also Ben McAdoo rather than Tom Coughlin putting the team in position to go on a run, and I think that’s a negative. Not that Mike McCarthy is great, but you have to give a coaching edge to Green Bay here for experience. But hopefully this is a good game that comes down to the final possession. I really have wanted to pick the Giants, but I just don’t see the points coming in this one.

Final: Giants 16, Packers 20

Full Playoff Predictions

I figured I’ll go through my whole playoff predictions before things get started.

Wild Card:

  • Raiders at Texans
  • Lions at Seahawks
  • Dolphins at Steelers
  • Giants at Packers

Divisional:

  • Texans at Patriots
  • Steelers at Chiefs
  • Seahawks at Falcons
  • Packers at Cowboys

Conference Championship:

  • Chiefs at Patriots
  • Packers at Falcons

Super Bowl 51:

Patriots vs. Falcons

Super Bowl MVP: Matt Ryan

I regret picking almost all home teams, but this is an unusually crappy playoff field this year, and no regrets on this final pick. I think Matt Ryan is having his 2006 Peyton Manning season.

Do I think the Steelers can win in KC and NE? Absolutely, but I sure wouldn’t bet on it. Just like how I think the Giants could rip through all of these top offenses to get back to another SB, but that’s just not going to be my pick. My preseason pick was Seahawks over Patriots, and while it wouldn’t shock me if we ended up there again, I don’t have enough trust in this incarnation of the Seahawks. Finally, after such a shaky regular season, I hope we do see a great postseason filled with exciting finishes and upsets. If so many of these teams are unusually flawed, then it’s safe to say the top teams are flawed too. No one is that much of a juggernaut that they can’t go down in any given week.

Season recap

  • Week 1: 7-9
  • Week 2: 10-6
  • Week 3: 8-8
  • Week 4: 8-7
  • Week 5: 7-7
  • Week 6: 12-3
  • Week 7: 10-5
  • Week 8: 7-6
  • Week 9: 8-5
  • Week 10: 7-7
  • Week 11: 12-2
  • Week 12: 12-4
  • Week 13: 10-5
  • Week 14: 9-7
  • Week 15: 12-4
  • Week 16: 9-7
  • Week 17: 11-5
  • Season: 159-97