We’re already four games into NFL Week 13 with the holiday games, and the underdogs were 4-0 SU. More than that, they beat the Lions, Chiefs, Ravens, and Eagles who were all in the top five for Super Bowl 60 odds. It’s the kind of result we keep seeing this year as almost every team who was great in the regular season in 2024 is struggling in 2025.
It’s the story of the 2025 NFL season, and Philadelphia’s 24-15 loss to the Bears was especially shocking with the way Chicago ran for over 230 yards between the tackles alone against them. Just pure domination a day after we watched the Bengals turn over the Ravens and beat them down in Baltimore too.
But I feel the need to rant at 7 AM here about the Eagles’ decision to go for 2 in a 24-15 game with 3:10 left. How people think this is a good strategy is still beyond me. I usually rant about this once a year and I think this will have to serve as the 2025 rant on it. While I’m not against going for two early in all cases, there is a point on the clock where it becomes a silly endeavor that just ends the game earlier than it had to end. You could see how dejected the team and fans were after the Eagles, who struggled all day offensively again, failed on their 2PC pass, keeping it a two-possession game.
With how hard it’s become to recover an onside kick, I want no part of the strategy that’s going to lead me to having to recover one (or two). Make that a last resort.
But people still insist this is right when I just can’t get behind that. I’ve shared the data before, and I just updated some of it again to share.
Since 1994 when the NFL brought in the two-point conversion (2PC), we have seen 170 touchdowns scored in the fourth quarter by a team down by exactly 15 points at the time to make it a 9-point game. There were three games where a team did it twice in the quarter (including Bills vs. Ravens in Week 1 this year), so it’s actually 167 games total.
These teams are 11-155-1 (.069) in the game, and that’s not nice at all. It’s a dire situation to be in no matter how you approach it. But here are some more stats
- Teams who kick the extra point first down 9 to make it an 8-point game are 135-of-138 on the extra point, and JOEY SLYE has all three misses for three different teams this decade. One of the craziest stats I’ve ever seen as kickers have been automatic in this spot except for one journeyman bum.
- Team who go for the 2PC right away down 9 to try to make it a 7-point game are just 13-of-32 (40.6%) on the attempt, including a conversion from Chad Pennington in a 2007 Jets game with 0:00 left, so there was no point in even defending that as the game was over.
- Meanwhile, of the 27 teams who kicked the extra point first and wound up scoring a second touchdown and needed a game-tying 2PC, they were 17-of-27 (63.0%). So, it’s all very small sample sizes since 1994, but that’s 40.6% vs. 63.0% for going for 2 early vs. late, giving some credence to the idea that, yes, teams who wait after proving they can score a 2nd TD on this defense have been better at converting for 2 when they had to have it.
- Of the 11 teams who came back to win the game, 7 of them did it by scoring a TD/XP + TD/2PC + GW score later.
Four teams won in unique fashion, and three of them have been in this 2025 season as teams get more experimental on when to go for 2. But the main thing I want to stress is there’s never been a game in NFL history where a team won after trailing by 15, scoring a touchdown, converting a 2PC, then scoring another touchdown and either scoring a third time to win the game or going for two a second time to win the game by a point.
2020 Cowboys vs. Falcons: People love citing this example because it was literally 1-of-1 before this season. The Cowboys scored a touchdown with 4:57 left, which is considerably more time than the 3:10 the Eagles had on Friday. They failed on the 2PC, so they were still down 39-30, then they got the ball back, scored a TD/XP, then recovered a ridiculous onside kick to drive for a GW FG in a 40-39 win. All truly made possible for an all-time onside kick blunder.
2025 Bills vs. Ravens: This was Week 1 SNF and it’s another unique game because the Bills are the first team to try both down 15 strategies in the same quarter. They went for the 2PC and failed with 12:51 left. After Baltimore scored again, the Bills were down 40-25, then they switched course and kicked the XP with 3:56 left (40-32). Then they got the Derrick Henry fumble big break, then they got another TD, failed on their third 2PC of the quarter (40-38), then used their timeouts to force a three-and-out before driving for the GW FG (41-40).
2025 Cardinals vs. Titans: Another goofy ass game this year. The Titans were down 21-6, got a touchdown, Joey Slye missed the XP to keep it 21-12, but then the offense got a TD/XP after a Cam Ward interception was fumbled and returned for a touchdown by the offense (21-19). Then they got the ball back and won on a GW FG (22-21) for Slye to redeem himself. But this was a team going for the XP first and getting lucky to win even after it failed.
2025 Jets vs. Bengals: Here we go again with a historic game with a team incorporating multiple strategies. The Jets went for 2 after scoring a TD in a 31-16 game and converted to make it 31-24 with 14:17 left (plenty of time again). But after the Bengals got another TD (38-24), we saw the Jets execute the down 14 strategy next by going for 2 on their first TD drive, making it a 6-point game, then getting the go-ahead TD to go up 39-38 with 1:54 left. So, this win was really more about the down 14 strategy than what they did down 15.
Pretty interesting how we’re seeing the strategies evolve this season, but one thing I’m not seeing is any inherent value in going for 2 early in a game that is way too late like the Eagles faced on Friday. Kick the extra point, make it a 24-16 game, then keep the pressure on Chicago to do something stupid like a fumble, run out of bounds or throw incomplete to stop the clock, etc.
The Bears ended up moving the chains before giving up the ball on a turnover on downs, leaving the Eagles with 1:12 in a 9-point game and a long field. They ended up missing a 52-yard field goal with 0:09 left, and would have still needed an onside kick recovery (lucky if it’s 5% these days) and Hail Mary TD (good luck).
Now, maybe the Bears kick a 47-yard field goal on 4th-and-4 had it been a 24-16 game had the Eagles kicked an extra point instead of failing for 2. But let’s say they do the same thing, then Hurts would have had the ball in a 24-16 game with 70 yards to go in 72 seconds to tie the game. I like my chances a lot better in that spot.
Yet, I knew people would still defend Nick Sirianni’s decision, but I refuse to ever get behind it. With 14:00 left? Absolutely fine. With 7:30 left? Okay. But 3:10? Hell no. Watching it live, I gave up on the game the moment they failed on the 2PC and went to eat a piece of chocolate pie in the kitchen. This shit was over.
Now imagine how the players felt at that moment too. Any number advantage you think exists is so marginal to what impact actually failing on the 2PC does to the game in that spot. The only “information” gleamed here is you’re fvcked.
Until next season, my down 15 rant is over.
This Week’s Articles
NFL Week 13 Predictions
You know I originally had CHI ATS/PHI ML before switching it up to Eagles by 8. Whoops.
LAR-CAR: Season is really fvcked if the Rams lose this one but I do like the 1H spread better than the full game.
ARI-TB: Sounds like Baker is good to go, so I’m going with TB at home. Gotta get back in the win column.
TEN-JAX: Can the Jags actually blow anyone out? I’ll give TEN a bone to cover if they could cover the Seahawks, they could cover the Jags.
NO-MIA: Meh. Whatever.
SF-CLE: Really looking forward to seeing if Cleveland can match its 2023 upset against a better SF team when they made things tough on Purdy.
ATL-NYJ: All in on the Jeff Ulbrich revenge game for Atlanta’s defense roughing up the Jets.
HOU-IND: Yep, I’ll take the top defense and C.J. Stroud’s return while Daniel Jones has to operate on a fractured fibula. This might be Houston’s last stand in the AFC South.
MIN-SEA: What’s a Brosmer and why will he probably play better than J.J. McCarthy would have? Sam Darnold revenge game too.
BUF-PIT: Read my NFL picks for a parlay and more detail on this game. I’m hedging on the pick, but I really do think the Steelers can win this one with the running game and their takeaways against a shaky Buffalo team missing its OTs.
LV-LAC: Don’t expect much from LV who already lost 20-9 to these Chargers in Week 2.
DEN-WAS: I’ll be getting work done early Sunday night instead of laying on the couch for this one. Should have been flexed.
NYG-NE: Curious to see if Jaxson Dart can force Drake Maye to lead his first 4QC in the NFL, but it’s another horrible defense for Maye to face and one that can’t hold any leads either.
Captain Comeback: NFL Analysis by Scott Kacsmar 