Tag: Eagles

NFL 2026 Week 8 Predictions: The One Where the NFC East Forced Itself On Us Edition

~ Scott ~ 1 Comment

It’s Week 8 in the NFL and there are some really good games this week, especially with key division races in the AFC North, NFC North, and AFC West. There’s also a Bills vs. Ravens game that could be good with the return of Lamar Jackson.

But what is the NFL leaving in prime time on Sunday night? An NFC East shit-fest between the Eagles (2-5) and Commanders (1-4-1). We already had to watch the Eagles lose 38-21 on Monday night against Dallas, and now they’re a 5.5-point underdog to a 1-win Washington team that hasn’t been fun to watch since they lost the 2024 NFC Championship Game in Philadelphia.

All these great games and it just so happens that they can’t flex any of them in.

  • Oh, we can’t do Steelers-Browns in prime time again or do Vikings-Lions (SNF in Week 15) even though the Eagles and Cowboys get both of their games in a national window (they meet again on Thanksgiving).
  • We can’t flex Chiefs-Broncos in a battle for first place because God forbid the Chiefs are on SNF two weeks in a row even though we’ve recently watched the Falcons and Cowboys in three straight prime-time games.
  • We can’t do Bills-Ravens because the Ravens play on Thursday night (more valid at least).

Instead, let’s get the battle to stay out of last place in the first or second-worst division in the NFL this year. I hope the day comes where this NFC East bias bullshit comes to an end and the NFL starts giving us games people actually want to watch in prime time instead of relying on market size. The ratings don’t back it up that more people want to watch the Eagles and Commanders.

Does Jerry Jones have to meet his maker before we can just collectively move on from these teams in prime time so often? Whatever it takes, I’m ready for a change in how the NFL treats that division on the schedule.

NFL Week 8 Predictions

Spiritually, I should have nailed the correct score on Thursday night as I had the Packers beating Carolina 27-20. It ended 27-19 because a team that is now 2/11 on 2PC under Dave Canales thought it was being smart with this newfangled strategy of going for 2 early that I don’t think is a real difference maker, especially when you have put on tape that you suck far more than league average at these types of plays with your short QB.

NFL Week 8 Predictions

TEN-CIN: The Bengals can get to 5-2 and still objectively won’t have an impressive win in 2026. But after what they did in Miami, I don’t trust them not to let the Titans cover in the backdoor.

BAL-BUF: The Ravens narrowly lost their last two games at Buffalo in the 2024 AFC-DIV and Week 1 last year. It wouldn’t shock me if they found a way to lose this game by 1-3 points too. But I think the vibes are bad coming out of Baltimore after a 35-13 drubbing last week, Lamar might be rusty and not able to run 100%, and the Bills are rested off a bye week.

ARI-DAL: Would be a classic Dallas letdown spot. They’ve lost some games they were heavily favored to the Cards in recent years, including 2025. But I think they’ll win this week.

CLE-PIT: I think Aaron Rodgers is playing better than he was in the first meeting, and the offense showed it could sustain drives in Cleveland. Just have to avoid the sacks and picks, which I think he will at home. And I think with every win being a GWD for Cleveland, it’s about time for some regression for Deshaun Watson as they get to Predator in the 4Q of this one to take him down for the win and first place.

IND-JAX: Firesale going on in Indy. I think the Jaguars come back rested from London trips and start going on a run here with a win by 11+ to start here.

MIN-DET: One of the worst 6-0 teams I’ve ever seen, the Vikings should go down this week. But after the Lions beat GB 20-17 last week, it wouldn’t shock me if that’s the same score here too.

ATL-TB: Hardest division to get a read on other than none of these teams are going far in the playoffs. Baker Mayfield came back last week and barely had to throw for the team to score 43 points. I’m just going to pick them at home, though we’ll see if Penix can have success against that defense the way Kirk Cousins did when he was there.

LV-NYJ: Raiders could stop the slide here, but I think Geno Smith has one of his best games to stick it to the Raiders. Maybe even a Cousins interception by the defense that never gets any to get a start on the Mendoza era next time out after a fifth-straight loss.

LAC-LAR: Battle of Los Angeles and who is the most disappointing team in the NFL this season. You know, with the way the Rams blow leads and the way Justin Herbert has failed on seven straight 4QC/GWD attempts, I’m not sure I’d want to see him with the ball late in this one and a one-score margin. He’s due for a win at some point here after the Chargers have lost 9 straight. But I’m going to trust the Rams to get it done and win by 7+.

KC-DEN: It sounds like Rashee Rice and Jaylon Moore are back, but now the defense is down two corners (Sneed and Delane). That should help Bo Nix, who didn’t even try to throw deep in Week 1 but is coming off his most vertical game of 2026 vs. Arizona. I picked the Chiefs to go 10-7 and split the season series with Denver. I’m not backing away from it now. Denver wins and the Chiefs make a move or two before the trade deadline after another road loss to a contender.

NE-MIA: Not a game I’d bet on. We’ll see if the Dolphins can build off their first win in a home spot they’ve often had success against NE with over the years. But I’m still going to back the Patriots as I don’t like the talent on Miami.

PHI-WAS: Who knows? I’ll split the difference and take the Eagles to cover, Washington to win. It came down to a late 2PC in Week 1 but obviously the Eagles have lost a lot of talent since.

CHI-SEA: Really good offense (Ben Johnson) vs. defense (Mike Macdonald) matchup for these coaches. Johnson is 14-3 ATS in non-division games, and the last time he played a Macdonald defense (2024 Lions vs. Seahawks), his passing offense completed 100% of its 19 attempts. I don’t think Caleb Williams will come close to doing that against this defense, but the way you beat Seattle is having some balance (run the ball) and getting takeaways to force short fields. The Bears do those two things well, so I’m going with the upset here and backing Chicago.

2026 NFL Stat Oddity: Week 6

NFL Stat Oddity 2026
~ Scott ~ 1 Comment

Some people are letting Week 6 upsets lead them to believe the NFL is rigged. Sunday certainly had a lot of weird fantasy/betting results in terms of who was putting up the yards and touchdowns. I won’t dispute that fact after my new betting strategy failed miserably in its first weekend.

But as for the outcomes on the scoreboard, let’s not forget divisional games are often weird. The Cardinals beating the Rams and the winless Titans beating the Cols on the road are both divisional upsets. Those teams know each other better than most, and the Rams were dealing with a new coach (Mike LaFleur) who was Sean McVay’s offensive coordinator the last three seasons.

Still, the Arizona Cardinals having more wins at SoFi Stadium than the Rams and Chargers combined after Week 6 sounds fake as hell. Not rigged, because who in the world would want to produce these standings?

It’s also true that a lot of games are close this season as we had 10-of-13 games with a comeback opportunity this week. Four more teams blew a double-digit lead, bringing the season total to 17 in just six weeks. Some teams can’t seem to get out of their own way in crunch time while others are thriving as the Bills and Browns are both 4-1 at game-winning drive opportunities behind rookie head coaches.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Texans vs. Jaguars: Game of the Week

Guess I slept on most of one of the best international games the NFL has ever produced. I figured this would be a good one and I had the Texans winning it, but I did not expect both quarterbacks to throw for over 300 yards, 3 touchdowns, and take no sacks. Both threw a pick in the end zone, but that just added to the intrigue and late-game strategy in what was really the last stand for Houston competing in the AFC South after that 0-4 start.

But we saw Marvin Harrison Jr. make an instant impact with three catches for 34 yards. Not huge numbers but pretty good for him in his first game. We also saw Travis Hunter living up to that two-way draft potential with a touchdown catch followed by an interception on back-to-back drives in the fourth quarter. Impressive player.

Both of these teams have struggled giving up yardage to wide receivers. They came in ranked No. 32 (Jaguars) and No. 30 (Texans) in that area, and it didn’t get better in this game even if Nico Collins and Parker Washington didn’t dominate. The other players stepped up.

Houston was always better than its 0-4 record as the offense has been better than expected, but the vaunted defense blew three leads in the fourth quarter. This could have easily been a fourth as the Jaguars did rally back from a 31-21 deficit to tie the game with 1:55 left after Cam Little’s 60-yard field goal.

About that tying drive…Is it almost a curse to have a kicker with great range in today’s NFL? I think in the past, a team facing a 4th-and-4 with the prospects of a 60-yard field goal would have gone for it. The Jaguars still had three timeouts too, so it was possible to get the ball back if they were stopped. Also possible if the kick was missed. But that used to be such a tough kick, and someone like Little makes it look routine now.

But I think if Liam Coen wanted to go for that one, he would have been justified. They still may very well have ended the drive with a tying field goal, but at least they would have used more clock and made the likelihood of overtime greater.

Instead, the Texans had a full 1:49 to work with, and they milked it for all its worth. A couple of short passes to Woody Marks was enough to get into field goal range, and the Texans worked the clock beautifully to set up the 49-yard field goal as the very final play. No shenanigans like last week in giving the Jaguars a chance to get Little in position as he could probably hit from 70 if he had to.

Very good win for the Texans, who I think are still dangerous at 2-4. I think they’re better than some of the 4-2 teams right now. But they have to get on a run like they did last year, and the defense clearly isn’t as good as it was in 2024-25. Though, if Stroud can keep playing like this – he’s getting Tank Dell back this week too – then they have a shot for the playoffs.

Cardinals at Rams: Super (Disappointing) Team

The Rams were a 12.5-point favorite in this one. It’s not like we haven’t seen Sean McVay’s team blow a game as a big favorite before. He’s only done it more than anyone since 2017.

But this felt different. The Cardinals seemed to not respect the Rams’ offense and blitzed Stafford effectively. He struggled to get to 200 yards late in the game. No matter what you think about the kicking situation in LA, there’s no excuse for this offense to have one touchdown on nine drives as they trailed 15-9 late into the fourth quarter.

Just continuous sloppy play by the Rams, whether it was a Tyler Higbee fumble in scoring territory, or a false start penalty that led to Stafford trying to throw a screen on 4th-and-8 (?) in the final minutes.

But Puka Nacua did make a 43-yard catch that got the offense going, and Colby Parkinson’s 6-yard touchdown put the Rams ahead 16-15 after the punter (Evans) made the extra point after lightweight kicker Blake Grupe tore his ACL trying to make a tackle on a kickoff earlier in the game.

However, Parkinson being ruled a touchdown instead of inches short was probably a blessing in disguise for the Cardinals. We just covered a late-game scenario in Jaguars vs. Texans where you could argue the Jaguars should have gone for the fourth down to not leave so much time for Houston.

I really think the NFL has changed a lot in the last few years with kickers getting even more range (K-balls help, I guess), and the new kickoff rules promote both a shorter field after a touchback (35) and more longer returns are possible now. It’s just not that hard to set up a long field goal and make it these days.

In this situation, the Cardinals were out of timeouts with 52 seconds left. The Rams faced 2nd-and-3 at the Arizona 6, so they could get a first down without the touchdown too. I’m not advocating that a team should take a knee and run clock here, or that Parkinson should have purposely came up inches short to run the clock. You take the touchdown when you can, but at the same time, you can call plays that dictate how possible that touchdown is too.

Given the clock and timeout situations for both teams, I think the Rams scoring on second down was costly. Sure enough, without a real kicker to handle the kickoff, the Rams kicked a touchback and the Cardinals were at their 35 with 47 seconds left. Maybe not the greatest situation to be in, but not a bad one for a 12.5-point underdog as they only needed a field goal.

And it took a single play to get into range after a 21-yard completion with a bullshit 15-yard penalty tacked on for the hit that was unavoidable. Just like that, the Cardinals were at the 29. After three runs to burn the Rams’ timeouts and get a little closer, the Cardinals made the 43-yard field goal to drop the Rams to 2-4 and last place in the NFC West.

Jacoby Brissett is now just 7-27 (.206) at 4QC opportunities, but that’s a memorable upset for him and the Cardinals. Just another regrettable loss for the Rams, who are quickly falling apart as they don’t have a kicker and they lost Davante Adams (hamstring) for 6-10 weeks.

I don’t feel confident that the Rams can rebound from this, because the super team we were promised on paper never existed. The Rams never took the field this season in a game with Myles Garrett, Aaron Donald, and Trent McDuffie (out Sunday) all active.

That’s still no excuse for blowing these games against the Broncos, Bills, and Cardinals the way they did. It’s almost like by sharing a stadium, the curse of the Chargers has consumed the Rams now.

Ramming.

Ravens at Browns: The Old Familiar Sting

Sunday was nothing new for the Ravens as you can take your pick of past headlines from their games and apply it to this 13-10 loss in Cleveland:

  • With Lamar Jackson out, the Ravens lost another low-scoring game in Cleveland.
  • Baltimore blew another 10-point lead after halftime, adding to their league lead since 2018.
  • Young kicker Tyler Loop had another key miss from 49 yards away that could have made it a 10-point game with a quarter to play.
  • Derrick Henry had another costly fumble in the fourth quarter, which led to a 35-yard game-tying touchdown drive for the Browns.
  • The defense was flagged for DPI on third down to extend Cleveland’s drive for a touchdown too.
  • Unable to close offensively, the Ravens went three-and-out on their last two drives.
  • Deshaun Watson hit a 33-yard pass to Jerry Jeudy on a 3rd-and-5, leading to the game-winning field goal instead of getting the offense off the field for Baltimore.

Jesse Minter’s commitment to the Harbaugh bit is something else. Meanwhile, Todd Monken may not be getting great efficiency out of Watson, who threw for 164 yards after taking 5 sacks. But he’s getting timely plays out of him, and the defense has been better than expected after trading Myles Garrett to the Rams.

I still think the Browns are fool’s gold at 4-2, but they are at least finding ways to win games that the Ravens keep finding ways to lose.

Steelers at Buccaneers: The Rodgers-McCarthy Comeback You’ve Never Seen Before

I used to annually grill Aaron Rodgers and Mike McCarthy for a decade in Green Bay where they would almost never have the sort of comeback win they had together on Sunday in Tampa Bay for the Steelers.

In Green Bay, there was just one game where Rodgers and McCarthy won after the Packers trailed by double digits in the fourth quarter. It was in the opener to their final season together (2018) against the Bears when they were down 20-3 before winning 24-23.

On Sunday, the Steelers looked horrible for three quarters, especially on offense and special teams. Rodgers was taking sacks, he narrowly avoided a pick-six (dropped), and kicker Chris Boswell seems broken. They were fortunate to be playing an undrafted rookie quarterback in Jalon Daniels instead of a veteran like Baker Mayfield.

But everything changed after the first play of the fourth quarter after Rodgers, trailing 16-3, drilled a pass to D.K. Metcalf for 17 yards to convert 3rd-and-16. From there, it was all Steelers. Daniels threw a pick, the Steelers settled for a field goal, then Boswell redeemed himself with a 58-yard field goal to tie the game. Jamel Dean, the former Buc, picked off Daniels to set up a 20-yard field goal after the Steelers failed to punch it in from the 1.

Again even a rookie quarterback was able to start from his 35 with 1:21 left and easily got the game-tying field goal that forced overtime. I agree with the decision for Tampa to go on defense first. Hope you sack Rodgers and end a drive, so you only need a field goal to win. Then if you give up a touchdown as they did, at least you’re giving Daniels four downs to work with the whole field. No disagreement in strategy there.

But the Steelers did get that touchdown as Germie Bernard capped off his big day with his first touchdown. He should be the WR2 as I saw more out of him in one preseason game than what Roman Wilson has done in Pittsburgh. But the injuries to Michael Pittman Jr. and Wilson opened the door for Bernard on Sunday, and he was very good. Like a Randall Cobb type for Rodgers.

Daniels needed a touchdown. He was able to overcome one 4th-and-9 with a scramble, but on 4th-and-8 at midfield, a well-timed blitz led to the second sack of the day for Jalen Ramsey to end the game.

This is the first time since the 2002 AFC Wild Card vs. Cleveland that the Steelers won after trailing by 13 points in the fourth quarter. Yes, the Tommy Maddox vs. Kelly Holcomb shootout. Yes, that also means Ben Roethlisberger never did this in his HOF career despite having more overall comebacks than Rodgers. Sure, he did put the team on top in a playoff game against Jacksonville after trailing by 18 points in the fourth, but the Steelers found ways to blow his big comeback attempts.

The Steelers get one behind Rodgers and they’re 4-2 before heading to Paris to take on the Saints. It’s the kind of comeback I certainly didn’t expect from Rodgers and McCarthy after seeing how bad this game was for 45 minutes. But they got it done.

Bears at Falcons: Caleb Williams’ Big Return

It looks like Ben Johnson’s offense works just fine when he’s playing non-NFC North defenses. Caleb Williams returned and had a 30-of-36 for 305 yards passing game that is more akin to the kind of offense you want to see from this team. One where Luther Burden (95 yards) and Colston Loveland (65 yards and a touchdown) are leading the way over Kalif Raymond. They also needed this from Caleb after the running game was mostly contained (29 carries for 95 yards).

But even though the Bears took a 31-7 lead on the first play of the fourth quarter, they had to sweat this one out a little. The Falcons attempted what would have been the first 8+8+8 comeback in NFL history and got two-thirds of the way there thanks to the offense coming to life and forcing a fumble in between scores.

Johnson’s vaunted offense was faltering and the Bears went three-and-out again. Michael Penix had plenty of time with 3:34 left. But in typical Atlanta fashion, a holding penalty changed a first down into a 3rd-and-16, and he was strip-sacked with 2:54 left. The Bears gained two first downs and ran out the clock to escape with the win that was sweatier than it needed to be.

Chargers at Chiefs: Is Kansas City Great or Are the Chargers This Terrible?

The Chiefs improved to 5-0 with a 22-6 win over the now 0-6 Chargers that left a lot of fans wondering just how good this team is, or just how bad the Chargers really are.

The Chiefs could certainly be accused of “playing with their food” in this one as Andy Reid was conservative, kicking three times on 4th down with 1-2 yards to go inside opponent territory. The red zone was a struggle as Patrick Mahomes threw an interception (his only real mistake of the game) while trying to throw a ball away under pressure, and Kenneth Walker was stuffed on a 4th-and-1 run at the goal line as that’s the one area he pales in comparison to 2024-25 Kareem Hunt. It also took the Chiefs deep into the game before finally getting their first sack since Week 1 against an amateur offensive line.

Kansas City also brought back the “obligatory fumble” on a bad special teams play with a fumbled punt after Remigo went backwards on what would have been fantastic field position for the Chiefs in the third quarter. Harrison Butker also missed a field goal and extra point. Vintage 2018-22 “We can only beat ourselves” Chiefs are back.

But in a league where 10 of the 13 games this week were so close in the fourth quarter, you have to give the Chiefs credit for playing underwhelming, sometimes stupid football and still winning 22-6. Keep in mind the Chargers were 0-5 at comeback opportunities this season, yet they trailed by at least 13 points for the entire second half in this one.

That’s pretty good for a Kansas City team that was missing its two best wide receivers and playing most of the game with two backup offensive tackles. It was also a good showing for Xavier Worthy (caught all 7 targets for 73 yards) and rookie Cyrus Allen had a nice 23-yard catch from Mahomes that looked like they’ve been doing this for a long time.

But the Chiefs will get a tougher test in Seattle in prime time. That will give us a much better idea of where this team is as a Super Bowl contender this season. Still, beating the Dolphins and Chargers by solid margins without playing that well is an encouraging sign.

Titans at Colts: The One That Got Chris Ballard Fired

Full disclosure: I was a legitimate Colts fan from 2002-2019. They were my second-favorite team behind the Steelers, and it was because they played a different brand of football (pass heavy and all the dramatic comebacks), Peyton Manning was my favorite player, then they drafted a generational talent in Andrew Luck in 2012.

When Luck retired, my interest waned, and it was replaced by the way the Chiefs were playing with Patrick Mahomes. The difference is I’m not a Chiefs fan; I’m a Mahomes fan. That means I technically have to root for the Chiefs to do well so that he does well, but I will never say I’m a Chiefs fan in the way that I was content with my fandom for the Colts for two decades.

With that said, the Colts became irrelevant to me once Luck retired. They weren’t fun to watch anymore with their annual acquisition of a washed quarterback, and I think going for Carson Wentz, one of my whipping boys, in 2021 really was the final nail in the coffin for my fandom.

The Colts have really done nothing since Luck retired too except embarrass themselves. Sunday was maybe the lowest point yet after they blew a 13-0 lead at home to the winless Titans. That was enough to finally get GM Chris Ballard fired after a brutal tenure.

Even when the Titans win, it still feels like a loss for Cam Ward as he threw for just 102 yards in the game. The Titans took the lead in the fourth quarter on a blocked punt for a touchdown, which sounds exactly like the kind of touchdown you’d expect in a game between these teams.

But the Colts failed to come back late, and they’re 2-4 and irrelevant to the season just as they have been for years. They’re turning into the Titans on a level of “Who Gives a Fvck?” and that’s sad to see for a franchise that used to be a huge source of entertainment for me.

Bills at Raiders: Not Ready for the Big Boys

The Raiders’ 3-0 start always felt a bit fraudulent since it came against the Dolphins, Chargers, and Saints. Two of those teams are still winless too. The Raiders haven’t won ever since Klint Kubiak said “we’re going to win the game” at halftime against the Chiefs. They lost that game by 3, got clobbered in New England, and now lost a 33-30 game at home to the Bills.

I think Kubiak is going to have them moving in the right direction, and they can be a force if Fernando Mendoza is the real deal, giving Kubiak a quarterback with mobility that Kirk Cousins just lacks. They also need to find some more defenders as it’s really a one-man show with Maxx Crosby.

But this game is just another sign that the Raiders aren’t quite ready to beat the big boys in the AFC. It also is another sign that the Bills don’t have a Super Bowl-caliber defense. Another 33-30 game, another one where they blew a 10-point lead and had to get another  touchdown to break a tie.

Allen becomes the 10th fastest (149 games) and fourth youngest QB to 30 game-winning drives (playoffs included).

NFL Quarterbacks with 30 Game-winning Drives (GWD)

However, I’m also not convinced the Bills are improving in the passing game. There is way too much reliance on off-script plays from Josh Allen, and that drive that ended with his long shovel pass touchdown was a great example of how so much of this offense is fishing for flags right now. The Raiders were penalized twice on Allen incompletions on that drive, including a 3rd-and-9 that would have been a three-and-out.

I’m not sure D.J. Moore is the magic cure here either when he returns. They just need to find more ways of getting guys open and throwing on time. What they’re doing is working for now, but I don’t see the defense getting better, and I think they’ll find it tougher when they aren’t playing teams with their heads up their ass like the two Los Angeles teams, or a Raiders team that just lacks the real talents at WR and defense.

The Bills are just scraping by to win shootouts in September and October, but that doesn’t present much confidence for a winning streak in January and actually playing in February for a change.

Cowboys at Packers: The Game That Wouldn’t End

I’ve seen some slogs on SNF, but this one takes the cake. I agree with Cris Collinsworth that the first quarter was exciting with both defenses going aggressive to force mistakes. But after that, it was so clear that the Packers were the better team, Dak Prescott didn’t bring his A game, and the Cowboys were just never really in the game. A far cry from 40-40 overtime tie no matter how many flags the refs tried to throw to keep this alive.

The Cowboys are a poorly-coached team with a rubbish defense, and the Packers are finally hitting their stride with Christian Watson and Matthew Golden leading the way for Jordan Love in the passing game. Golden had 6/104/1 and it could have easily been more if he could catch a few he dropped.

The Packers simply own Dallas and have done so for the last 15 years.

Saints at Giants: J.J. McCarthy Leads One of the Greatest Almost Comebacks in NFL History?

I like a good “almost comeback” story in the NFL.

In Week 2 of the 1992 season, the Giants were down 34-0 to the Dallas Cowboys in the third quarter. The Giants scored four touchdowns to make it 34-28, but when they got the ball back with 3:42 left, they went three-and-out and punted it back with 2:07 left. Dallas, which would go on to win the Super Bowl that year, ran out the clock. Bummer, as that would have been the biggest comeback in NFL history if the Giants pulled it off.

That’s my go-to game for the best almost comeback in NFL history, so Sunday’s result wasn’t even the best one in Giants history. Still, what a crazy finish after the Saints, who always seem to give the Giants problems, were up 34-10 with 11:31 left.

  • J.J. McCarthy entered the game for a struggling Jameis Winston and promptly threw a pick too.
  • But the Saints fumbled two plays later, so McCarthy, or “Nine” got the ball back with 9:31 left.
  • More than half the quarter was gone before the Giants finally scored a touchdown with a 2PC with 7:00 left to make it 34-18.
  • The Saints were a bit dumb in throwing two incomplete passes to stop the clock and punt it back after a 65-second possession.
  • McCarthy was throwing deep YOLO passes and made it work for another quick touchdown drive, and this time the 2PC failed. It was 34-24 with 5:06 left.
  • The Saints again went three-and-out on a quick possession.
  • McCarthy led a drive that saw him spike the ball with 2:08 left at the 23 to get a 41-yard field goal (34-27). Interesting decision to save the two-minute warning with the Giants down to two timeouts.
  • The Giants kicked deep, and even though the Saints wisely returned it to use up the 2MW stoppage, they still ran it three times and punted.
  • McCarthy had 57 seconds to drive 71 yards for the potential tie or win, and he got things started with a 28-yard scramble.
  • After two more completions and some spikes, the Giants faced 4th-and-1 and were 14 yards away from the end zone. The rally came up short after McCarthy’s pass to Likely fell incomplete, ending what would have been an insane comeback from an unlikely hero.

Nine threw for 243 yards despite only playing part of the fourth quarter. With Jaxson Dart done for the season and Jameis Winston not playing the most inspiring football, I almost think you should just start McCarthy and see what happens.

Panthers at Eagles: It’s Truly Over in Philadelphia

The bigger news than this game is that Jalen Hurts has several blood clots in his lungs and his season is over with his career a question mark. I had a pulmonary embolism in 2016, and my main symptom when I knew things weren’t right was a fast heartbeat at rest and an impending sense of doom. The latter is a real medical symptom.

An impending sense of doom is apt for the 2026 Eagles as it’s never been more over for a team after their fourth-straight loss. Bryce Young and the Panthers played well on the road, and backup Tanner McKee had his shot in a 19-14 game with 9:32 left. But one bad snap doomed the drive right away, setting up a 2nd-and-22 and another three-and-out before the Panthers added an insurance score following the Eagles’ 8-yard punt. Yikes.

Hurts will take blood thinners, which I was on for nine years before getting my doctors to agree I could stop in 2025. Other athletes, including Victor Wembanyama, have been able to continue playing after a DVT clot, so I wouldn’t write off Hurts just yet.

But I really think the negative fallout from how this was handled and the way the Eagles are falling apart here is going to get someone canned, and head coach Nick Sirianni feels like a good candidate for that as I’m not sure what he really does for the team anyway. He’s always been a coordinator merchant.

It’s a good thing the Eagles won that Super Bowl in 2024, because that era is over. Windows don’t stay open for long in this league.

Jets at Patriots: Trivial AFC East Scrimmage

The Patriots continued heating up on offense against A.J. Brown’s best wishes as he had drops in his return to action. But Drake Maye threw three touchdowns without taking a sack, and Geno Smith had a costly pick in the fourth quarter when the Jets were down 23-13 and across midfield.

The Patriots nearly ran out the final half of the quarter before settling for a short field goal to make it 26-16. The Jets tacked on a field goal with 32 seconds left, but they weren’t able to get the onside kick and this one was over.

New England (4-2) is still right there behind the Bills (5-1) in the AFC East. Once again, the Jets (2-4) and Dolphins don’t matter (0-5). But two stooges aren’t as bad as Three Stooges.

Next Week

Patriots-Bears is a nice TNF matchup with young quarterbacks. I guess I’ll have to set the alarm early for Sunday with the Steelers and Saints in Paris, and the NFL picked about the worst week possible for that game to be there.

The 1 PM slate is all about Bengals-Ravens, but that’s not a very good game if Lamar Jackson can’t go. Might be Cincinnati’s year in the AFC North if they get to play Tyler Huntley (again).

Green Bay at Detroit is carrying the late window. Good game there. Chiefs at Seahawks is not quite as good as it would have looked a few weeks ago, but I can’t wait to see what plan Macdonald has for Kenneth Walker. Might be the first time you see a team truly take him away and make Mahomes try to win with those wideouts and tackles. Good chess match.

Dallas at Philly on MNF? Yuck, I think I’d rather watch an obscure British comedy series on Tubi or another Carrie remake I haven’t seen yet. Fvck the NFC East bias.

NFL 2026 Week 6 Predictions: Can a Prime-Time Favorite Just Win in Regulation? Edition

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

The NFL kicked off Week 6 with a bit of history as you had three straight prime-time games in the regular season go to overtime since Sunday night. But this Thursday was a bit of a dud when Bo Nix tied the record for most game-winning drives through three seasons (15) in the most Bo Nix way possible by throwing for 107 yards on 27 attempts in a 17-14 overtime win.

The GWD was set up by another Sam Darnold interception, and Nix had two runs for 3 yards on an 8-yard drive that did not gain a first down.

I don’t know how Nix keeps doing this Elway-meets-Tebow thing as that’s now 12 game-winning drives in his last 20 starts. But with that win, that’s now 10 straight prime-time games in the NFL where the underdog won outright. The last favorite to win was the Rams on MNF against the Giants in Week 2.

I had to look up how insane that is, so I went back to 2006 when the NFL brought back Thursday Night Football. The 10-game streak of underdogs winning outright dwarfs everything as the next closest streak was 6 games, and that was during the 2020 COVID season where you had empty stadiums and record-setting offensive numbers.

Notice that three of the four streaks came in Sept/Oct. where the spreads may not be as accurate with everyone trying to get a read on these teams early in the season. Still, it’s been a wild streak as the previous worst record for favorites in any 10-game stretch since 2006 in prime time was 2-8.

We’ll see if it can continue another week.

NFL Week 6 Predictions

I expected Denver to win basically the way they did against Seattle (by capitalizing on Sam Darnold mistakes to win by 3 points and without an impressive offensive display.)

HOU-JAX: Looking forward to this one actually as I think it’s Houston’s last shot to compete for the AFC South this year. I’m actually going to go with them as I think the Jaguars could struggle with their backup LT against those Houston edge rushers (Anderson Jr. is playing great), and Houston’s offense is starting to figure things out. Jaguars have been more consistent this year but division games are always tough.

CHI-ATL: Sounds like we’re getting Caleb Williams vs. Michael Penix as the QBs. Penix is still technically 0-7 at GWDs even though he’s put the team in position multiple times to win. But I think Chicago bounces back in a big way with Caleb and wins this one late.

BAL-CLE: Another week without Lamar, but I think Tyler Huntley can hold it down and I don’t see the Browns scoring a ton here. That 3-1 start was pretty much a mirage.

NYJ-NE: The Patriots have had a few good games in a row now and usually take care of the Jets with few problems. I don’t expect much out of this game.

NO-NYG: Saints have given the Giants a ton of problems over the years, but I think Jameis gets it done at home as I just don’t trust the Saints right now.

TEN-IND: Division games can always be tougher than expected, but the Titans just lost 26-3 to winless Houston last week. This team just looks lost to me. I can’t trust them to cover and the Colts have been consistently beating them under Steichen.

CAR-PHI: In a normal week I wouldn’t feel bad at all with Tanner McKee starting for Jalen Hurts (blood clot). But these are not normal times for the Eagles. There’s no Saquon, A.J. Brown, or Lane Johnson for McKee this week. Panthers had the bye week too and the Eagles are coming off that shocking London loss. It wouldn’t surprise me if the Panthers win by 3 points for the Eagles to steal a cover, but I’m just going to go with the healthier, better rested team in Carolina that should be able to put up some points. They should have won in Philly in 2024 if Mr. Raccoon Eater (Xavier Legette) didn’t drop that TD.

PIT-TB: By my count, Aaron Rodgers is just 6-6 in the state of Florida with some of the ugliest losses of his career. Florida is where you go to die after retirement, but Rodgers is on a good streak of games with 3 TD passes. However, he’s down some WRs here, and the Bucs didn’t look so bad with Jalon Daniels in Dallas. He’ll start again for an injured Baker. The Steelers should win a road game eventually this season, but I’m just going to side with the Bucs winning this one at home as I think the Steelers lack the WRs to score many points, and I can see a mobile Daniels giving them problems on scrambles and broken plays. Bowles should blitz Rodgers too and test that OL.

ARI-LAR: Cards aren’t an explosive offense right now, and I think McVay is genuinely pissed at losing that Buffalo game. I think he’ll run it up here and the Rams win big to get back to .500. Don’t put it on a new kicker. Just kick a bad team’s ass.

BUF-LV: The Raiders were destroyed by the Patriots last week. They should play much better at home against a bad Buffalo defense, but I think Kirk Cousins’ lack of mobility will continue to give him some issues, and Greg Rousseau is having a special start for the pass rush. I think the Bills win by at least a TD.

LAC-KC: I liked the underdog line a lot more at +9.5, but this has to be your classic Chargers cover, Chiefs win type of game most likely. It doesn’t sound like Mahomes will have Josh Simmons or Rashee Rice, so another game without LT1 and WR1 (and his true best WR in Tyquan Thornton) for him. But they have Kenneth Walker, Kelce should step up, and Justin Herbert is on an 0-for-7 streak at GWDs.

Still, it’d be such a classic NFL thing for the 0-5 team to beat the 4-0 team in a division game. I do think it’s a game where the Chiefs will struggle. Maybe seeing that defense will wake up Herbert the way Buffalo brought Drake Maye back to life two weeks ago. But the Chiefs can’t afford to blow this one in a tough AFC race with harder games to come. I think they win but won’t cover.

DAL-GB: Here we go in prime time again with teams that played to a 40-40 tie on SNF last year. Historically, the Packers seem to always beat Dallas in the Rodgers/Love eras, and GB is playing better after a poor start. Dallas had an embarrassing home loss to Tampa, and that game is really the main reason why the shocking 10-game winning streak for underdogs in prime time is intact.

It would be fitting for Jerry Jones’ squad to end a streak they helped extend to record length by losing again here as the underdog. I think that’s what will happen too even though I expect a GWD opportunity in this one.

WAS-SF: Maybe we go on a counter run with favorites dominating in prime time starting this weekend. The 49ers won’t go undefeated or anything like that, but I don’t trust a Dan Quinn-coached team to be the one that knocks them off. His defense won’t stop this offense, and Daniels is not playing the best right now. I begrudgingly take the home favorite to cover to end the week.

2026 NFL Stat Oddity: Week 4

NFL Stat Oddity 2026
~ Scott ~ 3 Comments

With a month of the 2026 NFL season in the books, the last two weeks have really pushed this season into ultra-competitive territory as Week 4 was the second week in a row 12 games had a comeback opportunity in the fourth quarter.

That marks 39 of the first 63 games to have one (61.9%), and that percentage would be the highest season since 2011 if it stood. The last two seasons were both barely over 56% of the games featuring a comeback opportunity.

We’re also on pace for just over 55 double-digit comebacks from any point in the game, which would be a single-season record. We’re on pace for almost 81 blown leads (or comeback wins) in the fourth quarter, which would also be in record territory. Finally, the average margin of victory is 10.1 points, which would be the second lowest in history behind only 2022 (9.8).

It’s a competitive season where we may lack great teams again. That might just be the new norm in today’s sports with injuries playing a big factor. Still, it’s quite wild to see the Texans, Chargers, and Buccaneers all 0-4 despite favorable playoff odds going into the season.

It’s not like they haven’t been competitive:

  • The Texans have blown three fourth-quarter leads while no other team has more than one.
  • The Chargers are the only team that is 0-4 at 4QC/GWD opportunities.
  • The Chargers (0-4), Texans (0-3), and Buccaneers (0-3) are the only three teams who are 0-3 or worse at 4QC/GWD opportunities this season.

Also, I have to point out that Sunday was a particularly nice day for me after the two viral tweets I had last week about Joe Burrow and Josh Allen.

They both were in a position to make me look bad on Sunday, but they just reinforced my stances with Burrow falling to 1-35 when trailing in the final 8:00, and Allen royally blew a game against the Patriots with a game-ending interception he didn’t need to force.

Meanwhile, we start our recaps in Las Vegas in the battle of 3-0 teams with Patrick Mahomes tying another NFL record.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Chiefs at Raiders: Game of the Week

Every once in a while, I can get a game exactly right as I had the Chiefs winning a 30-27 game as they did in the big battle of 3-0 teams.

But it was still a confidence-building game for the Raiders as they hung in there with the Chiefs all day, and while they didn’t win like rookie coach Klint Kubiak predicted at halftime, they didn’t embarrass themselves like the Raiders often did in anything resembling a big game in the Derek Carr era. This team does feel different, and they were feasting on Kansas City’s defense with tight ends with almost no help from their wide receivers.

Maybe the Chiefs need to learn something from that as Sunday was a bit of a pyrrhic victory. They lost Rashee Rice and Tyquan Thornton, their two best wide receivers, though it sounds like Rice could be back after the bye, and Thornton might be able to give it a go if there’s a deep playoff run. But that’s a big problem going forward as you lose the only deep threat who has played so great with Mahomes. Get Tyreek Hill on Line 1.

But the Chiefs also exposed Mahomes to plenty more hits with two backups on the left side of the line after Andy Reid benched Kingsley Suamataia for personal reasons. The result was a game where Mahomes completed just 15-of-30 passes with three throwaways and two sacks. Maxx Crosby had five quarterback hits by himself.

Meanwhile, Kansas City’s defense hasn’t had a sack since the third quarter of Week 1, and they nearly blew an 11-point lead in the final 3:02. The Chiefs winning games this way is similar to 2022 or 2024, but you can’t cover up these flaws in the offensive line, wide receivers, and pass rush against better opponents, which are coming.

Right now, this team is basically succeeding on Mahomes making timely throws and Kenneth Walker breaking tackles on excellent runs because the run blocking just isn’t there. The bye actually comes at a good time to figure out how to adjust going forward.

It’s a nice 4-0 start and the rest of the NFL doesn’t look particularly strong, so you don’t want to waste the opportunity of a potential Super Bowl season here. But I just think the limited WR room combined with trying to do more play-action passing behind this line is not a great combination for keeping Mahomes upright for the long term this year.

Still, he put the team ahead twice in the fourth quarter on Sunday, giving him a 12th multiple game-winning drive (mGWD), tied with Ben Roethlisberger now for the most in NFL history.

Rams at Eagles: Possibly a Season-Saving Comeback

Come January or February, we could be looking back at this game as the turning point of the season. The Rams didn’t have Myles Garrett or Aaron Donald on defense. The Eagles didn’t have Lane Johnson, Dallas Goedert, or DeVonta Smith, and they lost Saquon Barkley early in this one.

Still, the Eagles led 20-10 with the ball at the Rams’ 2 with half a quarter left. They had a chance to put this team down to 1-3, and Nick Sirianni would have been 5-0 against Sean McVay.

And yet the Eagles lost this game at home in a comeback that was in some ways more shocking than the 19-point lead the Eagles erased against the Rams a year ago. The Eagles had two cracks from the 2-yard line to make this a 17-point game, which is exactly why you go for it there instead of kicking the field goal to make it 23-10, or a two-score game staying a two-score game. I don’t fault the decision, I just didn’t care for the play calls as neither worked.

Still, the Rams had 98 yards to go and Matthew Stafford wasn’t sharp on the day. But he hit some big throws, and a penalty helped the Rams get to the red zone where they finished off the 98-yard match with a Kyren Williams touchdown to make it 20-17 with 3:59 left.

The Eagles went three-and-out, which is what plagued them in 2025, and they’re next to last in that category in 2026 despite the coordinator change. Still, you could at least argue the injuries are killing them at the moment, but something is broken with their offensive system.

Stafford got the ball back, drove the team back into the red zone, and they weren’t relying on no stinkin’ kicker again this year. Williams had a brilliant 7-yard touchdown run to put the Rams up 24-20 with 1:10 left.

Hurts immediately took a sack, then another one as the Eagles went four-and-out after an incomplete pass on 4th-and-25. Total collapse by the Eagles while the Rams just saved their season that was slipping away.

Remember this one as the trajectory of these two teams could be heading in opposite directions the rest of the way.

Patriots at Bills: Possibly a Season-Saving Comeback II

September was a rough one for the Patriots, but they could right the ship with an upset in Buffalo, and that’s exactly what they got. It was similar to last year when the 2-2 Patriots were a big underdog in Buffalo, and they pulled off some takeaways and Drake Maye led the first game-winning drive of his NFL career.

On Sunday, I think Maye had the best win of his NFL career too. He did the things I’ve always criticized him for not doing:

  • He led a legitimate 4QC/GWD late in the game that wasn’t just a long touchdown run by his back.
  • He threw 37 passes in the game and only took a single sack to beat a winning team.
  • It’s the first time in Maye’s career he won a game where his defense allowed more than 24 points.

How bad is that Buffalo defense? The Patriots scored 10, 13, and 6 points on offense in the first three games and 29 on the road in this one. Maye’s only interception was a drop and bad deflection by Romeo Doubs, who made up for it later with two touchdowns.

Meanwhile, Josh Allen had been getting away with turnovers earlier this season, and I still think he narrowly avoided a grounding penalty for a safety in the third quarter of this one. But his mistakes caught up to Buffalo in the end of this one.

First, the Bills are absolutely terrible at 2-point conversions these days. After a Keon Coleman touchdown (he played great after D.J. Moore left injured), the Bills had a crucial 2PC to go up 28-21. They failed once again with Allen missing a wide-open tight end and forcing an incomplete pass. Buffalo only led 26-21, opening the door for Maye, who delivered on his 2PC pass to take a 29-26 lead.

Since the 2024 AFC Championship Game, the Bills are 2-of-13 (15.4%) on 2PC plays, including 1-of-10 with Allen attempting the 2PC pass. Now you see why he is the Tush Push guy at the goal line.

Down 29-26, Allen had plenty of time (1:42) to tie or win the game. But on a 2nd-and-6 at his own 40, he forced a deep throw and was intercepted. The Patriots got one first down and ran out the clock.

Huge win for the Patriots, who prevented the AFC East from being somewhat wrapped up by Week 4 for Buffalo, a team that is about to see the schedule get tougher too while New England’s eases up some.

But for Buffalo, you could argue this team is worse than recent years given the defense looks worse without McDermott, and the offense is still quite careless with the ball in big spots, and Joe Brady apparently can’t design 2PC plays, or Allen just can’t hit the throws like the 13-12 Philadelphia loss last year.

September’s over. The Bills need to get better.

Chargers at Seahawks: Probably a Season-Ending Loss

It’s not like I expected the Chargers to win at Seattle, but I thought Justin Herbert could do better than a DeShone Kizer-like stat line for much of the game. He was 5-of-14 for 36 yards and two picks at halftime.

Speaking of Kizer, he was 0-15 as a starter for the 2017 Browns, who finished 0-16. The Chargers have actually lost seven straight games going back to last year, and the offense has never been worse in the Justin Herbert era. In fact, this is probably the worst Chargers offense since the Ryan Leaf era.

Even after the Chargers managed to get this back to a 30-23 game with the ball, Herbert lost it on a fumble to end the game. It also reportedly is the first game in the play-by-play era (since 1977) where the first two plays from scrimmage were an interception from each starting quarterback. Odd.

But what a rough game with both teams registering 13 possessions. I’ll be very curious to see how the Seahawks hold up against the 49ers next week. As for the Chargers, they have the Broncos, Chiefs, and Rams up next, so 0-7 is not out of the question.

Again, the 1992 Chargers are the only team in the Super Bowl era to start 0-4 and make the playoffs. The 2026 Chargers are not the 1992 Chargers.

Cowboys at Texans: Probably a Season-Ending Loss II

The Texans had a great defense in 2024-25, and the vast majority of those starters were active again on Sunday. But for the third time this year, the Texans blew a fourth-quarter lead. No other NFL team has done that more than once this season.

C.J. Stroud has been a lighting rod for criticism, but this loss was not on him. He got Nico Collins back, and that helped big time as Stroud threw for 347 yards, two touchdowns to Nico, and he did it without a good running game (17 carries for 50 yards). He also had a clutch touchdown drive to take the lead with 2:23 left.

But the Cowboys finally sucked it up and had their own clutch drive as Dak Prescott led a 74-yard march for the go-ahead touchdown to CeeDee Lamb with 40 seconds left. Lamb had 17 catches for 189 yards, numbers that seem unfathomable against this defense in 2024-25.

Stroud only had 37 seconds to work with, and his Hail Mary attempt fell incomplete to end the game, dropping Houston to 0-4. It’s been a stunning collapse that is on the defense as much as the offense, if not more so given the hype of this unit and the Nico injury on the other side.

As for the Cowboys, it’s good to see them deliver in a situation like this even if the Texans are going through a rough period that could lead to someone getting fired if this keeps up.

Jaguars at Bengals: Jags Cruise Down Interstate 1-35 for Big Road Win

As I said in this week’s predictions, Jacksonville is the one opponent that Zac Taylor’s Bengals have repeatedly been able to beat in higher-scoring games and in crunch time. Sunday was shaping up to be another one as the Bengals were 21 yards away from pulling off a 12-point comeback all in the final 6:35, which would easily be the best comeback win of Joe Burrow’s career. He’s never won after trailing by more than 7 points in the fourth quarter.

Of course, it may not have been necessary if he didn’t throw a red-zone pick in a 16-10 game with 14:10 left. That was his second pick of the game and lucky it wasn’t a third after a bad one to Travis Hunter was negated by roughing earlier in the game. Penalties were massive in this one as both teams combined for 24 penalties for 233 yards.

But with Ja’Marr Chase knocked out with a concussion, Burrow had a chance to be the hero in a game he threw the ball 54 times for 428 yards. A game where his running backs had 12 carries for 17 yards. This was all on him.

And he blew it again by coming up short. After three good throws to start the drive, Burrow couldn’t get the Bengals any closer from the 21. He had a miscommunication on second down with a possible touchdown to Mike Gesicki, then he threw it short on 4th-and-10 to Chase Brown, who only got 9-of-10 yards to end the game. No dagger throw to put the team on top in the final minute again.

After the game, Burrow’s answer to the lack of balance was throwing it more. I didn’t hear him say they need to do whatever it takes to score more than 17 points as the defense, while not perfect, did hold a red-hot Jacksonville team to 22, only the second time in nearly a year that the Jaguars didn’t reach 23 points. Parker Washington had just a single catch for 7 yards and Lawrence was sacked four times.

But the Bengals (2-2) came up short again in the exact situation I point to them doing so with Burrow, who is now 1-35 when trailing in the final 8:00, a stat he was asked about this week. He had a chance to immediately fire back with his best comeback ever, and the end result was another loss.

Lions at Panthers: The Bryce Young Breakout Season or Detroit’s Defense Is Actually Horrible?

Are we truly witnessing the Bryce Young Year 4 breakout season for the No. 1 overall pick? He leads the NFL in passing yards (1,268) as no quarterback has thrown more passes (162), but he’s also averaging 7.8 yards per pass, a full 1.5 yards above his previous seasons.

He looked great on Sunday night against Detroit, and while the Lions are a contender for the worst defense right now, the fact is Young has been fairly consistent this year. He’s not just relying on fourth-quarter heroics anymore either. Getting Tetairoa McMillan has really worked out for him as the two had their best game together on SNF.

Meanwhile, the Lions have allowed the most points and yards on defense, and the offense hasn’t been great enough to win more than two of the games. They still have just one turnover in four games, so that hasn’t been the problem for Jared Goff yet. They just have to be close to perfect and can’t really settle for field goals or failing on fourth downs.

That happened a bit too much last night, and the last drive in particular with two minutes to go get a winning touchdown in a 32-26 game was absolutely abysmal.

Something just feels a little off about the Detroit offense right now. They have five capable weapons to throw to, though the running back depth is gone without David Montgomery there anymore. They are only 14th at converting third downs too, which you can stomach a little since Dan Campbell is more likely to go on fourth down. But the exact level of precision they need to overcome a bottom-ranked defense just isn’t there yet, so I think you’ll continue to see them struggle in such games.

The good news is Detroit doesn’t have a daunting road schedule left with games at Arizona, Miami, Atlanta, Minnesota, Chicago, and Green Bay.

Packers at Buccaneers: Still Not Trusting the Packers

Again, we’ve seen the Packers lose to Tommy DeVito and the Giants in 2023, so nothing would have surprised me here against undrafted rookie Jalon Daniels and the struggling Buccaneers.

The Packers did fail to cover the spread (-3.5) thanks to some fourth-quarter blunders, including a deep red-zone fumble by Kaleb Johnson, and Jordan Love had another boneheaded interception late in the game in Tampa territory.

That gave Daniels a chance to be the hero with 4:18 left from his own 15. His passing in the game wasn’t good as expected, but he rushed for 55 yards and showed decent mobility. He only needed a field goal to tie. But a sack shortly after the two-minute warning killed the drive, and they just pressured him on 4th-and-11 to get home with more pressure that led to a meaningless interception as the ball was going back to Green Bay either way.

Tough way to start 0-4 for Tampa Bay, but the Packers don’t look that much better if we’re being honest.

Jets at Bears: Ben Johnson’s Laboratory

Ben Johnson is a wild one because he actually started the game with Case Keenum at quarterback and Tyson Bagnet on the field too, split wide. I think that should actually give Keenum credit for the win since he took the first snap at quarterback and handed off. But Bagent ended up throwing every pass in the game.

He did throw one interception that counted, ending the improbable 20-game streak without a pick for Aaron Glenn’s defense. Bagent also had three other picks negated by penalties, which is unfathomable for one game. Maybe the Jets are going to start getting huge positive regression in that category? Just need to stay onsides and stop committing penalties.

But the story of this game was the snap count. The Jets were doing a great job of hogging the ball early in the season, but the Bears had more first downs (34) than the Jets had plays (32) in this game, reportedly only the second time in the Super Bowl era this happened. Just pure domination as the Jets were 0-for-7 on third down and had 7 first downs in the game.

The Bears can run, they can win with three different quarterbacks, and the defense has really picked it up after an awful Week 1 (again, Carolina might just be good now on offense).

Chicago is looking like the real deal this year.

Cardinals at Giants: A Walk-off to Remember

I had the Giants winning as a home underdog, which made me a little surprised the spread was even in Arizona’s favor. But after an early 14-3 lead for the road team, I started wondering if that NFC West superiority was a real thing this season.

Fortunately, a game with Jacoby Brissett and Jameis Winston played out as you expected with fun touchdowns and turnovers loading up the stat sheets. It was a 27-24 game going into the fourth quarter before the scoring slowed down dramatically.

The Giants kicked a 52-yard field goal with 2:11 left to take the dreaded 6-point lead. I’ve never been a fan of that, but I’m not sure what you really can do on 4th-and-5 at the opponent 34. Kinda too close to take a delay of game and punt. A little too far to still want to go for it as a couple of first downs and the opponent is in field goal range.

Given Brissett’s historically-bad record at comebacks (6-27 record) and the fact that Arizona still had two clock stoppages, going up 30-24 was probably the right call. But that drive got to the 4-yard line, giving Brissett four cracks at it. He went to Trey McBride just once and Michael Wilson three times, but the last one was picked off and the Giants took it 98 yards to rub it in with the 12-point win. You’d prefer to just see the player take a slide and end the game instead of risking a fumbled return or whatever, but sometimes scoring is okay too with no time left. It didn’t affect the spread either way.

But man, with 4 yards to go, wouldn’t that be a nice spot to have a trustworthy receiver with a heigh advantage like Marvin Harrison Jr.? They got him a 12-yard touchdown early in the game, and he drew a pass interference flag that got them to the 4 in the first place. But nothing to him with the game on the line.

Titans at Ravens: Not Again, Lamar  

It’s funny how once Lamar Jackson went out with an injury, the RedZone channel basically forgot this game existed. I can understand that too. It was 24-7 at halftime and there wasn’t another touchdown scored until the Titans got one with 1:12 left to make it 24-18. But not enough time for anything but an onside kick, which failed.

Tyler Loop made a 64-yard field goal to end the half but also missed a 40-yard kick with 3:19 left that would have put it out to a 3-score lead. He’s a work in progress. The Titans are always a work in progress as Cam Ward and the offense have done so little this year.

But all eyes are on Jackson as he took a huge hit in this game at the sideline that you normally don’t see, then he left the game after getting injured on a sack right before the 64-yard field goal. Not good. Not this again as we wait to see if he’ll be active next Sunday night.

Commanders vs. Colts: The London Tradition

I remember a 2008 game in London where the Saints and Chargers played a 37-32 shootout and it was great. But the teams involved had a lot to do with it, and since then, the NFL loves sending teams like the Jaguars (usually bad) and teams with Marcus Mariota at quarterback overseas.

That’s why the games are usually low scoring and ugly to watch, which is why I tend to sleep in during the first 2-3 quarters and catch the ending. But I just so happened to be up early on Sunday, and I watched the whole game. If you like defense (great tackling, pressure on the quarterback), Colts-Commanders was a great game. If not, then it was skippable.

I really think my pick of Washington had some hope if Mariota didn’t get injured early. He was 3-of-4 for 46 yards and his 35-yard run finished as the team’s leading rusher. Rookie Athan Kaliakmanis (Christ, what a name) had to step in, and he threw some fearless deep balls that hit, but overall, he wasn’t going to get the job done.

Daniel Jones looked pretty bad, but the Colts got enough on the ground from Jonathan Taylor and company to eventually score 30 points and get the win. But I don’t see much playoff hope for either squad.

Dolphins at Vikings: It’s Not a Bad Beat

The Vikings improved to 4-0 even though the offense settled for five field goals and didn’t score any touchdowns for the second time this season. But tight end T.J. Hockenson, who caught all 13 of his targets, started a shitstorm when he slid down at the Miami 2 with a 15-10 lead as the clock moved to the two-minute warning. With the Dolphins out of timeouts, this game was over with three kneeldowns.

This is the right football play every single time. The game is over and you literally can’t lose unless you fumble the snap on a kneeldown. Yet, whether it’s people with Hockenson in fantasy or props, or it’s people who took the sucker line of Vikings -10 (without Jefferson? Really? I told you on Saturday it was Miami ATS all the way), they seem to think Hockenson should score a meaningless touchdown.

Open the schools if people don’t see why he did that, something many players have done over the years (Brian Westbrook in 2007, Peyton Manning in 2010, etc.). It doesn’t mean the game is rigged; it means you don’t understand strategy. Why risk more snaps when your players can get injured on any given one of them? The game was over.

Broncos at 49ers: The Way You Handle Bo Nix in the Fourth Quarter

Lots of long drives with punts and field goal attempts kept this to a 10-3 score going into the fourth quarter. That’s generally not when you want to see Bo Nix with the ball as he tends to turn into Joe Montana after looking like Cade McNown for the first three quarters.

But the 49ers handled him the best way you could by simply staying ahead of the scoreboard. The Broncos decided to kick a 40-yard field goal on 4th-and-2, and they trailed 10-6. Brock Purdy engineered a touchdown drive, which Nix answered with a touchdown and 2-point conversion to keep the heat on at 17-14 with plenty of time left (4:05) to get the ball back.

I’ve been working on game-sealing drive data, and while this wouldn’t count as one, it was perfection in the four-minute offense by the 49ers as a well-timed and schemed tight end screen to George Kittle broke for a 56-yard touchdown, and the 49ers were back up 10 points with 2:25 to play.

That’s already the second time this year the Broncos allowed a huge YAC play (50+ yards) to an “old” tight end after Travis Kelce got them in Week 1. If it wasn’t for what Patrick Mahomes is doing off an ACL, I think Kittle would be the favorite to win Comeback Player of the Year. He looks great after an Achilles in the playoffs.

The Broncos only had enough time left for a missed 58-yard field goal with 1:14 left. They would have needed an onside kick anyway. So, that’s one way to prevent a Bo Nix comeback. Just get one stop and keep scoring.

Next Week

Not a great start with Bucs-Cowboys on Thursday night. Eagles against the London Jaguars on Sunday morning is a big one for Philly to stop this slide, which isn’t looking likely. Jacksonville looks legit. Hard to believe Packers-Bears is losing luster because of how Green Bay is playing and not how the Bears are doing with BACKUP quarterbacks.

Pretty weak 1 PM slate when Raiders-Patriots might be the top game. Only three games in the late afternoon but 49ers-Seahawks is clearly the game of the week, if not the top game in the first five weeks of the season. We’ll see on SNF if Lamar Jackson can play in Atlanta. Bills at Rams is very interesting for MNF.

2025 NFL Stat Oddity: Wild Card Weekend

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

The story all season for the NFL in 2025 was new contenders. The Chiefs, Ravens, and Lions didn’t even make the playoffs. The Eagles didn’t win a playoff game, so we’ll have a new champion.

We only have three of the same final eight teams from 2024 (Bills, Rams, and Texans). The Broncos, Seahawks, Patriots, Bears, and 49ers are all new in that round. This should have led to a crazy, unpredictable postseason, and if wild card weekend is any indication, we’re getting one of the craziest postseasons in NFL history.

All six games had a comeback opportunity, and the first four all had a game-winning touchdown scored by a trailing team after the two-minute warning, a single-postseason record. There’s never been a postseason with more than five fourth-quarter comebacks, so we have a great shot of tying or exceeding that here.

We’ve also already had 12 fourth-quarter lead changes in six games, another single-postseason record with seven games left. There have been entire postseasons where there wasn’t a single fourth-quarter lead change like 2020 (COVID year with empty stadiums) or 2005 (No. 6 seed Pittsburgh won).

I predicted Eagles over Bills in Super Bowl 60 on Friday night, and that’s already halfway wrong after Philadelphia’s title defense ended in somewhat predictable fashion. The 49ers’ insane 22-year streak of either making the NFC Championship Game (7x) or missing the playoffs with a non-winning record (15x) is still alive and just has to get through Sam Darnold next week to continue for the 23rd year in a row.

But that’s next week. First, let’s recap the weekend, which I think you can argue is the best wild card weekend in NFL history. I don’t think any one game this weekend would make a top 5 list of NFL wild card playoff games, but the collective competitiveness of the weekend and the way these teams were just matching scores (for four games) in the fourth quarter was crazy to watch.

Something truly memorable from a weird season to this point.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Texans at Steelers: Same Old Steelers with Their Old Quarterback

The Steelers lost their seventh playoff game in a row as DeMeco Ryans has already matched Mike Tomlin’s last 15 seasons in playoff wins (3) in just three years on the job in Houston. What a job it’s been too. He just won a playoff game by 24 points on the road despite his quarterback, C.J. Stroud, turning the ball over three times with five fumbles (two lost).

But that 30-6 score is going to be one of the most misleading finals in postseason history. This was a 7-6 game at halftime and going into the fourth quarter. It was only 10-6 Houston when Pittsburgh foolishly called another run on 2nd-and-10 that lost 2 yards as they never got a ground game going all night.

Then on 3rd-and-12, Rodgers was buried in the backfield, coughed up the ball, and the Texans returned it for a touchdown. You could definitely argue there was a blow to the head that made his helmet move that could have been called for roughing the passer to negate the turnover and touchdown.

If this is Rodgers’ last playoff game (or game period), maybe it’s fitting it ends with a fumble-six after an uncalled penalty, shades of no facemask call on him in Arizona in the 2009 wild card loss. Actually, his last pass of the night here ended up being a fourth-down pick-six as the Texans have now scored six return touchdowns in just five playoff games in the Stroud-Ryans era. It’s possible his last pass is a playoff pick-six after his last pass as a Packer was a game-ending interception at home in a game with playoff implications against the Lions.

It usually never ends well. For the Steelers, nothing has ended well in the last decade, but I’ll say this one was a little different since you really can’t blame the defense. Sure, they had poor plays on third downs all night, but it was a 10-6 game with 13:00 left. Do something on offense. The Steelers got a Stroud fumble at the Houston 21 and moved the ball 4 yards before settling for a field goal.

They stuck to their guns, which means they have no identity on offense. They had some good plays early to D.K. Metcalf before he dropped a big pass and shut down the rest of the night. Pat Freiermuth’s usage all season was criminal, but that’s what happens when your QB is so WR-centric and your OC is in love with Jonnu Smith.

The Steelers even led 3-0 after the first quarter, a big departure from their usual 21-0 deficit in the playoffs. But the Texans still got to 30 points, extending their record streak to 7 playoff games allowing 28+ points. They also set a record with a fifth-straight playoff loss by double digits.

The Houston defense is great, but the Steelers had them on their heels early and just got worse by the drive. No touchdowns scored. It was actually better when the Steelers would lose a 45-42 playoff game at home. At least the offense could score after some mistakes. This was impotency.

This team was false hope all year. They’d look good for a half against a contender, then they’d get crushed after halftime against the Seahawks, Chargers, Packers, Bills, and now the Texans.

And the sad part is nothing really changes until they fire Tomlin and get lucky with a high draft pick on a quarterback. That’s the only way you’re going to get fundamental change in Pittsburgh.

I think 600 words will suffice, because what more could you say at this point? Same old Steelers.

Packers at Bears: Finally, This Rivalry Is Worth Watching in Prime Time

The 2025 Packers-Bears just gave us the best trilogy since, what, Nolan’s Batman? For years we had to endure this dated rivalry in an island game, but with the arrival of coach  Ben Johnson in Chicago, we got three great games late in the season with the Bears winning both meetings at Soldier Field in dramatic comeback fashion as they’ve done all year.

I’m not sure if Johnson’s vitriol for the Packers stems from his Lions days (jealousy?), or if it’s just manufactured bravado to endear himself with the Chicago community. But he may have ended Matt LaFleur’s time in Green Bay or at least limited it to one more season at best after a total collapse from the Packers, who lost their last four regular-season games before blowing a 21-3 lead on the road, and a 15-point lead in the fourth quarter (only the fourth time that’s happened in the playoffs after Roger Staubach’s comeback off the bench in 1972, the 2002 49ers vs. Giants, and Super Bowl 51).

The wild part is, much like John Harbaugh losing his Baltimore job on the swing of a kicker’s 44-yard field goal, it’s not like Johnson badly outcoached LaFleur in this game. In fact, some curious decisions by Johnson on fourth downs (Dan Campbell’s protégé) helped lead to the Bears trailing 21-3 at halftime. Green Bay kicker Brandon McManus also cost the team 7 points by missing three makeable kicks.

The Packers, who never won another game after Micah Parsons tore his ACL in Denver, wasted one of Jordan Love’s best games of the season. He didn’t turn the ball over, he distributed the ball very well to his wideouts with four of them catching a touchdown, including the first of the year for rookie Matthew Golden after they got him in space to show off his speed. Love did this with Josh Jacobs not producing a damn thing on the ground after halftime, which is part of why the Packers became ineffective and kept giving the ball back to the Bears to make this 18-point comeback.

Caleb Williams looked like a young quarterback going through first-playoff start jitters. He threw two interceptions on fourth downs, one of which shouldn’t have been caught as it cost the Packers 27 yards in field position.

But the Bears were hanging in there at 21-6 in the fourth quarter, then proceeded to catch quite a few breaks. Williams nearly lost a fumble on a 3rd-and-10 sack, but the Bears recovered the ball and were able to kick the 51-yard field goal to make it 21-9.

After Love was called for his second grounding penalty of the half, the Bears scored a touchdown to make it 21-16. The Packers overcame some mistakes and made it 28-16 on Golden’s great touchdown with 6:36 left. That should have been a dagger, but these 2025 Bears don’t know when to die.

But it’s funny how the key turning point of the game was the result of the Bears not being well prepared on offense, which should be Johnson’s expertise area, and getting bailed out for it to save the game. Chicago faced a 4th-and-3 at midfield with 5:37 left. Hurrying to get the snap off, the Bears snapped the ball over Williams’ head, which would have been a disastrous, likely game-ending turnover on downs.

But the Bears were penalized for a false start, setting up a 4th-and-8, and given a second chance, Williams made the throw of his career to find Rome Odunze for 27 yards. Game on from there.

It could have been curtains without the false start, so that’s how another Chicago mistake actually saved the game. The Bears turned that drive into 8 points and it was 27-24 with 4:18 left. But then it was LaFleur’s turn to ruin the game for his team with infuriating timeout usage. He burned one after an incomplete pass brought up 3rd-and-10, then the Packers immediately suffered a delay of game coming out of it anyway. Inexcusable.

That’s when McManus missed the 44-yard field goal with 2:51 left. Not the biggest miss of the game for him if you ask me. He missed the extra point after Golden’s touchdown that would have made it 28-16 with 6:36 left. That would have meant the Bears had to score two touchdowns instead of possibly settling for 8+3 or 3+8.

The Bears ended up scoring 2 touchdowns anyway, but look at the impact that point had. Instead of trailing 31-28 or 29-28 after Chicago’s last score, it was a 31-27 deficit, meaning Love had to get a touchdown with 1:36 and one timeout left instead of a field goal.

Green Bay’s usage of that final timeout was also questionable, then as fate would have it, an injury led to a 10-second runoff, making things even harder. Love almost had Golden for a touchdown on one play, but then he fumbled the final snap and had to fire a pass to the end zone that fell incomplete, and the Bears extended their record with a seventh win this season after trailing in the final 2:00.

Going into this game, I would have thought the rumors of LaFleur getting fired with a loss were BS. But after seeing the way it played out and thinking about all the big-game failures he’s had in seven years, the Packers might be wise for a change of leadership here.

It probably wasn’t going to be a Super Bowl season anyway for the Packers after losing Parsons, but that second half was coaching malpractice. It wouldn’t be so crazy for LaFleur to be moving on to another team for 2026 now.

As for the Bears, what more can you say? Caleb Williams is exactly the reason why a stat like EPA per play isn’t the end-all, be-all of stats for quarterbacks. Can you get the job done and score when you have to no matter how many downs or snaps it takes? He seems to be pretty good at that, and some of the throws are just incredible. Still misses his share of easy ones, but he can get better with that.

It should be quite the game with the Rams next week, another new matchup. The Rams have already allowed five game-winning drives, so Williams might have a shot at tying the single-season 4QC/GWD records with eight each.

Bills at Jaguars: The Trevor Lawrence Legacy Game Goes as Expected

The Buffalo pass defense. Like I’ve been saying for over a month, the Buffalo pass defense in a playoff field without Patrick Mahomes is why this team can get to the Super Bowl even without home games or a good run defense. They just have to stop some unproven quarterbacks in crunch time, and Lawrence was the first on their list, bringing the season totals to 8 saves and 0 blown leads for the Bills.

Oh, there were lead changes in the fourth quarter just as there were in all the early games this weekend. But when it came time for the final drive and Lawrence had a solid minute to get a kicker with incredible range into position, he immediately threw a pick to end the season.

But I think the game was lost well before that. The Jaguars should have had a run-heavy approach in this one. How does Tuten rip off runs of 20, 14, and 13 yards to end the first quarter and get one more carry the rest of the game? How?

They put their eggs in Lawrence’s basket, and while he settled down later in the game and made some nice throws, he killed them early with a pick that led to a 1-yard field goal drive for the Bills. He killed them when he ducked under a defender and his shin was down short on a 4th down in the red zone when the Jags had a chance to go up 14-3 after the Bills fumbled a kickoff.

It was evident early that Lawrence wasn’t on his A game, but the Jaguars didn’t do enough to test that run defense of the Bills. Also, the Jags were gifted a 54-yard field goal attempt before halftime that I’m not sure they deserved by beating the clock (did they really?), and Cam Little, after all the praise for his record-long kicks, missed it. That hurts in a 3-point loss.

But the Bills had a good offensive plan to throw those little short passes to Shakir to pace the offense on a day where James Cook was bottled up by the No. 1 run defense. Maybe a few too many Josh Allen designed runs when he’s banged up, but they made it work. And of course with the season on the line, he went to the Tush Push again, and this time he was pushed ahead for a 10-yard gain on 4th-and-1 with the season on the line.

That play was so weird to me. You obviously want to stop them since it’s fourth down. But once he got moving like that, do you just let them score? It was 24-20, so Buffalo absolutely needed a touchdown, but what if you stop them at the 5? You can still get a stop there to win the game. Once he got to the 1, why not just let him go the distance? Weird play.

Then Buffalo was stuck in no man’s land since you really don’t want to risk wasting a down with a bad play and getting a penalty or something stupid to push you back. Ideally, you’d run clock there and score on 2nd down with the sneak, leaving the Jaguars less than 20 seconds to work with. But they scored on first down, whether by design or not, and the Jaguars were going to get the ball back in a 27-24 game with 59 seconds left.

But you get a wild tipped ball that’s intercepted, and just like that, the season is over for the Jaguars. To evoke Dan Campbell, this may have been their best shot too in this AFC. But that’s one road win and one postseason game-winning drive in the books for Allen, who had neither of those things in his career before Sunday.

Next up is Denver as I predicted it’d be, and I think they have a very good shot of winning that one too because of their pass defense against Bo Nix. Again, someone has to be willing to run to take this team down, and someone better get Allen to the ground on defense. That’s why Houston is really the danger team for the Bills, but they may end up avoiding them here.

So far, so good.

Rams at Panthers: Stafford with MVP-Style Revenge Against Carolina

I kept saying the spread (Rams -10.5) was always too high for a team that’s been shaky in the last month like the Rams, who have already blown games as a huge favorite along with two huge leads in the second half against the Eagles and Seahawks. They already lost in Carolina in Week 13.

The Rams prevailed 34-31 this time, but it did show why they’re a shaky bet to go the distance. The short-yardage runs, the fourth-down decision making, the defensive play as of late, and some turnovers from Stafford and the offense are not leading to dominant play late in the season.

In this game, Stafford completed his first eight passes with Puka Nacua doing whatever he wants. But then Stafford hit his hand on a helmet and wasn’t the same. Nacua dropped a 46-yard touchdown going into halftime, and the Rams had a huge turnover on downs moment late in the second quarter. I get why McVay went for it; to control the rest of the clock and go into halftime up 13-17 points. But by not getting it, the Rams only led by 3.

Bryce Young was more than solid in his first playoff game. Certainly a few plays he’d like to have back, but the running game wasn’t there for him, and he made some clutch throws in big spots to finish with 264 passing yards.

Young did lead two go-ahead touchdown drives in the fourth quarter, but the defense was unable to hold up. They had a chance at a Stafford interception on a mix-up with Nacua with just under 12:00 left, but Puka made a play on the ball to force an incompletion on a drive that ended with a touchdown instead.

But when the Rams got the ball back with 2:34 left, it was all calmness and precision from Stafford on the 71-yard march to win the game. He reportedly told Davante Adams that it was time to go rip their hearts out, which he did. He threw a 19-yard touchdown to Colby Parkinson with 38 seconds left.

Young got the ball back in a 34-31 game with all three timeouts, so that gives you access to the entire playbook and you can use every square inch of the field with no concern for the clock. However, he unfortunately saved his worst drive for the last as the Panthers couldn’t gain a yard, and Young threw four straight incompletions to end the game on downs.

Horn had a chance at a low catch on fourth down, but by that point, you’re down to under 7 seconds and still not in field goal range, so the real failure of the drive came well before the final snap. Just not the execution we saw from Young in these moments in the regular season, and it cost them at the end here.

But it was still a great effort for an 8-9 team that was the biggest home underdog in NFL playoff history. Scary times for the Rams, but they prevailed and are moving onto Chicago.

49ers at Eagles: Repeating Is Hard

The 2025 Eagles were able to end a long drought and repeat as NFC East champions, but the only other repeat they’re going to end 2025 with is reminding us that this offense played half-assed football all season going back to opening night against Dallas when they only scored a field goal after a great first half.

The Eagles repeatedly did this all season, so it’s no surprise their season ended in this fashion. They scored two touchdowns on their first three drives, then never found the end zone on their last seven possessions. A.J. Brown bitched about targets all year and finished this game with 3 catches for 25 yards and some bad drops/incompletions. He might have played his last game with Philly.

Meanwhile, the 49ers hung in there and made it work without Ricky Pearsall, then they lost tight end George Kittle to a torn Achilles early in the game. Demarcus Robinson set the tone early with a 61-yard catch-and-run in stride on the opening drive, which he finished with a touchdown on his way to 111 yards.

Brock Purdy wasn’t perfect with a couple of interceptions, but he played well to get to 262 yards and 2 touchdowns without Kittle and Pearsall. They also couldn’t run the ball for much (16 carries for 51 yards). But on the first play of the fourth quarter, they brought back a trick play from Super Bowl 58 with Jauan Jennings throwing a 29-yard touchdown that required a great diving catch from Chrisitan McCaffrey to take a 17-16 lead. Both teams missed an extra point in the game (Eagles early, 49ers late).

The Eagles didn’t have Lane Johnson at tackle, which hurt as there were some big holding penalties that killed drives in the second half. They were able to turn Purdy’s second pick into a field goal drive that took a 19-17 lead with 8:00 left. But a defense that’s wilted in some fourth quarters blew a fifth lead this year. Purdy led a 66-yard march, finishing on third down with a 4-yard touchdown pass to CMC for a 23-19 lead with 2:54 left after the extra point was missed.

The 49ers probably should have gone for 2 there as 4 vs. 5 is little difference, and at least if you’re up 6 points, the other team might miss the extra point as we’ve seen Jake Elliott do this year.

Anyways, it was on Hurts to deliver a game-winning drive, which would have been his first in the postseason. It was nearly a four-and-out drive after a horrible drop by Brown on third down. But Dallas Goedert cleaned it up with 15 yards on fourth-and-5. However, once the drive reached the San Francisco 20, things stalled out. The poor pass rush for the 49ers got home for a 1-yard loss on a sack, then Hurts threw three straight incompletions to end the season for the Eagles.

On 4th-and-11, Hurts threw to Goedert with three defenders around him and it was closer to a pick than anything. I’m not sure he had any real other options on the play, but that’s season over there. The 49ers pulled it off.

I was going to reply to a tweet I saw before kickoff about the bad EPA rankings for the 49ers’ defense this year, and I keep hearing the sentiment that they’re a bottom-5 defense, which doesn’t jive with their ranking of 13th in points and 16th in points per drive allowed.

Again, this is an example of how EPA can miss some fundamental information. That’s a stat that can get juiced and heavily inflated by splash plays like sacks and turnovers. So, it’s not a surprise the 49ers don’t look good in EPA when they don’t get many splash plays. But they must be doing something right if they’re usually not getting destroyed on the scoreboard.

Throw in the struggles of the Eagles to play a 60-minute game on offense, and the 49ers always had a good shot of pulling this one out as a low-scoring game you win in the fourth quarter. That’s exactly what happened too.

They can do the same thing in Seattle, a team they’ve held to 13 points in both meetings this year. But we have all week to build up that one.

The Eagles are done. No repeat for them like I foolishly picked on Friday night. But I thought the defense would be better than this as I didn’t see getting killed by Robinson and a touchdown pass from Jennings leading to the end for this team.

Finally, I don’t think it’s hindsight to question why Nick Sirianni didn’t try to get that No. 2 seed last week by beating Washington. Wouldn’t you rather face a banged-up Green Bay team that’s lost four in a row? A team you already beat in a low-scoring game instead of a 49ers team that is well coached and still has some elite players, and they never seem to go one-and-done in the postseason. They can score too with Purdy, so yeah, I think that was a tactical error by Sirianni.

Not to mention getting home-field over Chicago if you’re the No. 2 seed. I didn’t like that decision to rest last week, and I really don’t like it now after what we saw from the Eagles on Sunday.

Chargers at Patriots: Roman, Lend Me Your Ears So I Can Whisper “You’re Fired”

The last NFL team to score 3 points in a playoff game before the Chargers on Sunday night was the Ravens in Buffalo during COVD. Who was the offensive coordinator? Greg Roman. I think we’ve seen enough of him here, and while it’s clearly not all his fault, he’s wasting Justin Herbert’s talent and hasn’t gotten any good results in the big games the last two years. I think they should make him the sacrificial lamb and fire him over this one after the Chargers scored 22 points in the final three games of the season.

Moving onto the quarterback, these Herbert playoff appearances keep getting worse. Now 0-3, I actually think he was better last year when he threw four interceptions (one dropped, one down 20) in Houston compared to this impotent performance with 3 points making the 2025 Patriots look like the 2003 Patriots. The weather wasn’t even an issue.

I also think that Houston game might be messing with him mentally, because how do you not pull the trigger to McConkey on this play early?

You can’t be too worried about throwing picks in a game like this. That’s how you end up scoring 3 points and just running or taking sacks all night because you’re scared of putting the ball 10 yards down the field. Terrible mindset to have in a playoff game.

The thing is the pass protection wasn’t really that bad until it was 16-3 in the fourth quarter. Then Herbert was swarmed and engulfed. But the damage had already been done earlier on the first seven drives.

As for Drake Maye in his first playoff game, he was bad. He was inaccurate against a zone defense. He turned into a sack merchant again, going down 5 times (lost over 6 yards per sack too this time so he wasn’t even mitigating the losses this week), and he should have had two lost fumbles, and the second one could have been an easy touchdown for the Chargers that would have made it an interesting 16-10 game with time. Most of his big plays were blown coverage or huge YAC on a checkdown to Stevenson.

Just not impressed, and objectively I don’t know how people can praise a 16-point performance like this from a quarterback. But it was his first playoff game, and he at least did better in the second half after a poor first half. Just interesting to note that in his second NFL win over a winning team, he had a 6-3 lead at halftime in both games (this and at Buffalo).

There’s also the fact that Vrabel and New England are used to these low-scoring playoff wins.

What’s next, two special teams touchdowns against Houston while Josh Dobbs has to come off the bench and direct a win? Then beating the Rams in the Super Bowl with 13 offensive points? Or is that only reserved for Brady?

Neither the Texans nor Patriots allowed a touchdown this week, so who knows what to expect from that one. But based on this game, I wouldn’t expect a ton of scoring from Maye in the passing game.

But the Chargers are in a tough spot as they need a new OC and they’ll probably lose their DC (Jesse Minter) to a head coaching Job. I’m not sure you can ever trust Herbert in one of these games until he proves he can get the job done. And they’re always on the road because they can seemingly never win this division. The Chiefs won’t be down for long, and the Broncos have a lot of good players and a coach on par with Harbaugh.

The 2025 Chargers had that built-in excuse with the offensive tackles going out, but I’m surprised at how little of a factor that was for three quarters on Sunday. Just played a lot of bad, passive football and that can be even worse than getting aggressive and throwing some picks.

At least they scored more points last year in Houston.

Next week: I always say the divisional round is the best weekend of the NFL year, but it’s got a high bar to clear after what we just saw. It’s also going to try to do it by introducing the top seeds, Seattle and Denver, into the mix. We’ll see if the Texans can sack the Patriots, and Rams vs. Bears could be the shootout of the postseason.

NFL 2025 Wild Card Predictions: Path to Super Bowl 60 Edition

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

The 2025 NFL season has been so hard to predict that I wish I could find a way to write off all 14 playoff teams. The good news is 13 of them will lose in the next month, and this is the moment where I make that prediction for the last team standing.

There are so many teams that I feel like you can immediately write off for one huge reason that will inevitably doom them in trying to win 3-4 playoff games in a row:

  • Panthers – They’re just not good enough.
  • Patriots – Schedule merchants who aren’t ready to go the distance
  • Steelers – Tomlin’s playoff defense will eventually implode
  • Texans – Defense is great but that offense is going to tank them eventually
  • Chargers – Offensive line won’t hold up for 4 road wins
  • Broncos – Stagnant offense that waits until the 4th quarter to score will doom them
  • Bears – Way too reliant on D/ST fueling late-game comebacks
  • Packers – Not enough horses to go on No. 7 seed run without Parsons and Kraft

That leaves six teams who I feel can win it all even though they have a glaring issue that concerns me. But it’s something I feel the rest of the team can cover up for a game or two that they can maybe squeak by.

  • Bills – Run defense has been playing better and not sure who in the AFC can really run wild on them.
  • Jaguars – A shame one has to lose Sunday but this could either be Trevor Lawrence’s chance to be Eli/Flacco/Foles or he implodes with too much responsibility
  • Seahawks – I don’t trust Sam Darnold but he probably has the best situation going for him and he almost beat the Rams after throwing 4 INTs because of that team support.
  • 49ers – Still think a core that’s been to two Super Bowls can get back home for SB 60 but the injuries (Bosa, Warner, Pearsall, etc.) make it so tough on the road.
  • Eagles – Yes, their offense should probably have them in the first category, but this is why track record matters and I’m still willing to give the 2-time NFC champs with the reigning SB MVP a shot (defense is better than a year ago too).
  • Rams – Probably played as well as any team has all year but they’ve blown five games and struggle to close and it’s usually the little things (short yardage runs, FG kicking, 4th down stops on D, etc.).

So how do I see it playing out? Many, many ways if I’m being honest. But if you want one version of my vision today, here it goes:

Rams take care of the Panthers, Packers eliminate the Bears, and the Eagles take out the 49ers this weekend in the NFC.

Bills outlast the Jags, the Chargers go chargering in New England, and the Steelers finally win one for Tomlin to take out the best defense.

Seattle survives a scare from Green Bay in the 7-1 matchup, and the Eagles find a way again to deny McVay and Stafford.

Buffalo eliminates Denver for the second year in a row, and the Steelers lose a game they should have won in New England.

Vic Fangio puts Sam Darnold in a blender and he implodes against that secondary like everyone expected him to do.

The Bills do it to the Patriots again at Foxboro as Josh Allen has his first playoff game-winning drive while Maye can’t close again.

Super Bowl 60 is a rematch from Week 17: Bills vs. Eagles but in good weather. However, the Bills’ lack of wideouts hurts them against that defense again, and the Eagles find a way to repeat despite hearing all year how their offense is garbage. But don’t sleep on that defense, and I still think Jalen Hurts has the ability to rise to the occasion with the talent around him to make some necessary plays that he didn’t really have to do last postseason. This time, he gets it done and the Eagles do in fact pull off the repeat.

I don’t love it. In fact, I’d rather see something like Texans vs. 49ers since I bet on it over a month ago, or maybe the Packers do the unthinkable and go to the Super Bowl as the first No. 7 seed after I picked them the last two years to do so.

But this is where I am. I’m also very open to the Rams getting it done by actually closing games out, which would mean getting rid of the Eagles in the divisional round and getting some revenge on Darnold for that blown 16-point lead in what was the game of the year for the regular season. Jacksonville winning this weekend would also throw a huge wrench in my vision, but if that happens, then I really do believe Lawrence can do the Eli/Flacco/Foles thing here.

We’re overdue for one of those anyway, aren’t we?

NFL Wild Card Picks

Already let the cat out of the bag with this weekend’s picks, but for spread purposes, here are my wild card picks:

  • Rams 26, Panthers 20 – That spread (Rams -10.5) is too high but the Rams move on
  • Packers 24, Bears 17- Snow game? Run the ball, GB.
  • Bills 24, Jaguars 20 – Maybe lower scoring than expected, but I think the Bills will have more balanced offense and Lawrence will have a big pick.
  • Eagles 20, 49ers 17 – Lowest scoring game of the week.
  • Patriots 23, Chargers 20 – Dicker the Kicker choke incoming? Does Maye have a Tuck Rule moment in him for his first playoff game?
  • Steelers 26, Texans 23 – More points than expected as Aaron Rodgers finds a way to get it done against the top defense.

This Week’s Articles

Guess I really wrote this ass-backwards this week, but here are links to my final QB rankings of 2025 (won’t be doing anymore until July), Fraud Alert Ratings for 2025 playoff teams, and about 12,000 words in full previews on every Wild Card game.

2025 Final NFL Quarterback Rankings: Matthew Stafford Is the MVP
2025 NFL Fraud Alert Rating: Should We Trust the Bears and Patriots in the Playoffs?
2025 NFC Wild Card Preview: Are We Sleeping on the Philadelphia Eagles Repeating?
2025 AFC Wild Card Preview: Without the Chiefs and Ravens, Things Feel Wide Open This Year
Scott’s Seven NFL Picks: 2025 Wild Card Weekend

2025 NFL Stat Oddity: Week 17

~ Scott ~ 1 Comment

That was a very long Week 17 slate in the NFL that started with Josh Johnson on Christmas afternoon and ended with a classic shootout between the Bears and 49ers. It sets up three division title games in Week 18 in prime time and little of substance on Sunday afternoon.

We had nine games with a comeback opportunity, so we still haven’t had a week with 10 chances since Week 4. That has me a little worried about Atlanta’s ability to keep it close with the Rams on Monday night, but we’ll see as I still think that one has upset potential.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Bears at 49ers: Game of the Day

This 42-38 game summed up in one graphic:

The crazy part is the Bears didn’t have their best wideout in Rome Odunze, and D.J. Moore wasn’t 100%, and the two rookies (Luther Burden and Colston Loveland) dominated with 232 yards and 2 TDs). The 49ers didn’t have George Kittle, Ricky Pearsall wasn’t 100%, and they still lit it up too with Brock Purdy accounting for 5 total touchdowns (10 in prime time since Monday night) and 303 passing yards.

Not a bad shootout for a game that started with a pick-six. But I think it’s a game where the 49ers showed they could run the ball very well against a bad run defense as CMC had 140 rushing yards. Purdy played excellent, and it’s past time we act like he always needs George Kittle, Brandon Aiyuk, and Deebo Samuel to do this, because none of those three were available to him on Sunday night. Left tackle Trent Williams also left on the opening drive.

But I also think you have to give Caleb Williams and the Bears credit for hanging in there blow for blow when the 49ers are on a heater like this. It came down to the final snap, and the Bears were that close to extending their record to a seventh win this season when trailing in the final 2:00.

If we somehow got this as a playoff rematch, I think that’d be great. But definitely a strong night for the offensive minds of Ben Johnson and Kyle Shanahan. Now, the 49ers just have to beat Seattle (easier said than done) on Saturday night and they’ll be the No. 1 seed again.

My only warning would be that you see what it might look like without Nick Bosa and Fred Warner, though there is some hope Warner could return during the playoffs. But if Purdy is playing like this, maybe this can finally be San Francisco’s year.

Eagles at Bills: Familiar Trends

Throw in a lot of cold rain to make it even easier on these two strong pass defenses, and Sunday’s 13-12 final more or less played up to the season trends for the Eagles and Bills:

  • The Eagles started strong, taking a 13-0 lead into the locker room with Dallas Goedert adding another easy 1-yard touchdown to his season total.
  • Jalen Hurts then promptly went 0-for-7 passing in the second half with DeVonta Smith only coming close on a overturned catch one time.
  • Saquon Barkley was held to 68 yards on 19 carries, so his disappointing season continued more than the horrid Buffalo run defense did, but it helped that the Eagles weren’t completing passes.
  • Josh Allen took 5 sacks, including another contender for the worst sack of the year that knocked him out of field goal range as the Bills were shut out for 54 minutes.
  • James Cook was held to 77 total yards, and the Bills are now 0-4 this season when Cook is under 100 yards from scrimmage, averaging 14.8 points per game in those games.

But Philadelphia’s classic second-half no show on offense meant the defense had to hold up, and it almost broke. The Bills finally broke through with some big plays to Brandin Cooks and others (another hook-and-lateral) to get down the field twice, and despite the bad foot, Allen snuck in two touchdown runs in the final 5:11, including a 4th-and-goal from the 1 run with 0:08 left.

The Bills made the controversial decision to go for 2 and the win, and Allen completely whiffed on the throw to an open Shakir in the end zone. Game over; the Patriots win the AFC East. It’s no wonder they like to run the ball down there. That should have been an easy conversion, but the Bills have been missing these 2PC plays all season.

However, I have to defend the decision to go for the win instead of playing for overtime. I think it was absolutely the right call for Sunday’s circumstances:

  • The weather was horrible, which can make an extra point even harder, and it’s not like Buffalo’s kicker has been reliable on those, getting one blocked on the first touchdown. The Eagles have good blockers too.
  • Allen’s foot wasn’t 100% and that limits his effectiveness, so you don’t want to keep putting stress on that for more snaps in overtime.
  • The Bills realistically have to admit the Patriots are likely winning the AFC East with only a home game against Miami left, so it’s not like the division title or a No. 1 seed is really on the line here.

If this game was earlier in the season when you have less clarity about the playoff standings, I think you take them to overtime as your defense was playing outstanding and you’re at home. If the weather was better, I think you play on into overtime. If Allen was 100% healthy in a normal game, I think you go to overtime, which is a place he’s never actually won a game in the NFL yet.

But those were not the circumstances on Sunday in Week 17, so I don’t have an issue with the Bills doing what they did. I just have an issue with Allen badly missing the throw as they finally had a good play dialed up for one of those 2PCs.

The Eagles (11-5) still have an outside shot of the No. 2 seed over Chicago. The Bills (11-5) drop from No. 5 to No. 7, and with the Jets only left on the schedule, I think they’ll go to 12-5, the Texans beat the Colts to get to 12-5 and the No. 5 seed by virtue of head-to-head win, and the Chargers lose at Denver to fall to No. 7 seed at 11-6.

I had Buffalo lined up for No. 5 for a while, but seeing as how that now could be Derrick Henry and the Ravens in Baltimore, I’m not sure they want any part of that matchup in two weeks, so it’s possible that bad throw was strategic by Allen.

Then again, going to No. 6 and probably having to go to Jacksonville, a team playing as well as anyone, may not be a great start either for this team. But that’s where I see things trending for Buffalo.

Steelers at Browns: The Tomlin Special (The Last One?)

Once the Ravens beat the Packers on Saturday night, you could see the “Tomlin Special” coming from a mile away.

The Steelers were going to lose to a 3-12 Cleveland team to set up a winner-take-all game on SNF against the Ravens for the AFC North. And they’ll have to do it without D.K. Metcalf (suspended) and Darnell Washington (broke his arm on Sunday). Maybe without Calvin Austin too, or the three players who had 67% of Rodgers’ passing yards in Baltimore earlier this season.

I knew the Ravens being +800 value the other day to win the AFC North was too good to pass up. That’s not to say it’s a sure thing, because the Ravens have a pretty bad history of playing well in Pittsburgh, but the Steelers played Sunday with no real energy or care to want to wrap things up with a great opportunity against a bad team.

Instead, they gave up 10 early points to Shedeur Sanders before picking him off twice later. But even with nine possessions in a 4-to-7 point game the rest of the way, the Steelers never found the end zone even once. They pissed away drives with penalties, a pathetic 4th-and-1 deep pass to Scotty Miller, a Rodgers slide short of the sticks on third down, a bad sack to make a field goal too long, and forcing the ball repeatedly to washed-up wide receivers against a No. 1 pass defense with good corners playing man coverage.

And yes, the Steelers absolutely were too focused on Myles Garrett breaking the sack record. Garrett himself admitted it, and while you might expect him to say that given he was shutout by a makeshift offensive line, anyone who says this didn’t have a big negative impact on the game for Pittsburgh didn’t watch the game.

You could see it in the way they called plays at times, like not calling a single pass in a 13-9 game with 7:03 left and the ball at midfield. Three-and-out on runs. You could see it in the way Rodgers was letting go of the ball extra fast (usually well under 2.6 seconds), sometimes just throwing the ball away before he even dares left Garrett get a whiff of him.

That hampered the offense all day, and it’s a silly thing to worry about when Garrett gets to play Joe Burrow next week. The record is going to fall, but Rodgers sure looked like he’d be damned to be Brett Favre and get caught in a highlight reel forever for going down on the record-breaking sack.

Instead, he reverted to his factory settings by forcing outside throws to wide receivers instead of using the only players that are actually any good in this offense, the tight ends and running backs. Rodgers was 8-of-21 for 60 yards on passes to MVS, Scotty Miller, and Adam Thielen. Meanwhile, Pat Freiermuth had the big plays on the final drive, but he only finished with 63 yards on 3-of-5 passing.

Feed him more, except Rodgers just doesn’t like tight ends and will rather throw to washed-up wideouts he has no real chemistry with against maybe the worst defense to try that against this year.

Just buffoonery from start to finish as the Steelers finished with 6 points on 11 drives. Mike Tomlin is now 0-7 at Cleveland without Ben Roethlisberger, who was 12-2-1 at Cleveland.

I had a bad feeling the Metcalf suspension would lead to something like this, but I really didn’t think Rodgers would go with low-risk passes to MVS in the end zone (against Denzel Ward) on three straight passes with the game on the line. Metcalf would have been a target there. Freiermuth or Jonnu Smith should have been a target there. MVS stinks.

But Rodgers’ loyalty to “his guys” at wideout came back to bite them. A bad gameplan hurt them. Worrying too much about Garrett, who didn’t even generate that much pressure, hurt them.

Frankly, this team doesn’t deserve the postseason. They got their ninth win last week, and at this rate, I’ll be surprised if they get another this season.

Jaguars at Colts: Farewell Philip (Again?)

Hats off to the Jaguars for getting to 12-4 with a sweep of the Colts this month. This was a good back-and-forth game with Trevor Lawrence showing off his legs on two touchdown runs, and the pass defense held up against Philip Rivers for the most part (147 yards, 1 touchdown).

Rivers’ lone pick came in the fourth quarter of a tied game (had to play that tune one more time), and that actually led to Jacksonville’s game-winning field goal drive, which consisted of losing 3 yards after a stuffed Travis Etienne run and two incompletions by Lawrence. Yikes.

Rivers got the ball back in a 23-17 game with 18 seconds left, but instead of seeing him throw one last pick in a one-score game to perhaps end his career for good, a delay of game penalty on the defense moved the ball to the Jacksonville 48. Riley Leonard came off the bench with the stronger, younger arm to throw the Hail Mary, and that too was intercepted to end the game.

Rivers has no regrets about the comeback attempt even though the Colts were eliminated from the playoffs on Saturday with Houston’s win. He’ll go down as an all-time competitor and one of the only people crazy enough to try this after five years away from the game.

If this is the end of the road, he’ll now finish 36-84 (.300) at game-winning drive opportunities and 30-79 (.275) at comeback opportunities down one score.

Seahawks at Panthers: NFC South Shame Pt. 1

It’s not like I expected the Panthers to beat the Seahawks, but damn, have some pride at home. The Panthers were 5-1 ATS as a home underdog this year, but the best they could do in this one was make it 17-10 in the fourth quarter after a Bryce Young touchdown run.

It’s a good thing he had that run because he finished with 54 passing yards on 24 attempts, or 40 yards on 26 plays if you add his sacks.

But a huge facemask penalty got the Seahawks out of a 3rd-and-21 situation, and they punched in another score to go up 20-10. Young took consecutive sacks before throwing a 5-yard pass on 4th-and-17, leading to a 25-yard touchdown drive by the Seahawks to ice it at 27-10.

All three of Seattle’s touchdown drives started inside the Carolina 30 in the second half, taking advantage of Carolina’s mistakes on offense. This game was winnable despite the final score, but it really looks like no one wants to take the NFC South this year.

Their division title game should end in a tie, which would still give it to the Panthers.

Buccaneers at Dolphins: NFC South Shame Pt. 2

This Tampa Bay collapse needs studied. The Dolphins came in ranked No. 26 against the run and the Bucs just couldn’t get anything going on the ground. It doesn’t help when Tristan Wirfs was inactive at tackle. But Baker Mayfield probably has the best 4-WR group in the NFL, and yet they were stuck on 10 points with him throwing two picks deep into this one before a last-minute Mike Evans touchdown led to a failed onside kick in a 20-17 loss.

Quinn Ewers had a couple of touchdown passes to lesser-known Miami targets for the rookie’s first win. The running game was solid. Miami will likely finish 7-10, which sounds like the typical Miami season in the 21st century.

Giants at Raiders: The Toilet Bowl

Both teams had lost nine in a row, but the Raiders would have been dumb to win this game and hand the Giants the No. 1 pick in the draft. The Raiders definitely need it more as they have a quarterback need the Giants don’t with Jaxson Dart rushing for two more scores in this 34-10 rout as Geno Smith took another beating behind his line.

The No. 1 pick isn’t locked up for the Raiders yet, and the Chiefs would probably be wise to not let them secure it next week either. Then again, it’s not like there looks to be a real QB prize in the 2026 draft.

Cardinals at Bengals: Ho-Hum

Go figure, it took Jacoby Brissett deep into garbage time (trailed by 30 points at the two-minute warning) to finally break 200 yards passing and throw his second touchdown of the day against the Bengals in a 37-14 loss that was never really competitive.

Just glad to say I was right that Ja’Marr Chase and Trey McBride finding the end zone were the only picks you needed from this otherwise fruitless endeavor between losing teams.

Patriots at Jets: Seriously, Just End the Season

The Patriots scored six straight touchdowns to start their 42-10 rout of the Jets, another tip in the cap for offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels, who has been behind some of those all-time drubbings in NFL history.

Speaking of history, the 2025 Jets have done it. In 16 games, they’ve let quarterbacks throw 32 touchdowns and 0 interceptions after a 5-piece from Drake Maye on Sunday. That’s two weeks after Trevor Lawrence had six total touchdowns on this defense.

I know Aaron Glenn is going to get excuses that they traded two of his best defenders, but this shit was rotten from Week 1 and has only gotten worse. I wouldn’t criticize the Jets if they made him a one-and-done coach, but I doubt that will happen no matter how brutal this 3-win season has gone.

Saints at Titans: Ending 2025 on a High Note

I know people don’t care about these teams this season, but I think it was a very good showing for both Tyler Shough and Cam Ward, and a game that should have their fans excited about what can happen in 2026 with more seasoning from Shough and better coaching/talent around Ward.

But Shough got the best of this matchup as he added another 300-yard passing game and comeback win to his resume. In such a down year for rookies, I’m very serious about voting him for OROY. Just finish strong next week.

Texans at Chargers: Houston Outlasts Them

Going back to Saturday quickly, I was most excited about this game and I think it delivered a playoff atmosphere with a tough, physical grind after some early explosives from Houston’s offense made it 14-0 in the blink of an eye.

But I thought Justin Herbert’s teammates let him down again with the tipped pick in the red zone, and Dicker the Kicker turned into Nate Kaeding in a big game. This guy is supposed to be perfect from inside 40 yards, yet he missed one from 40 and an extra point, costing the Chargers 4 points in a game they lost by, yep, 4 points. And don’t act like I haven’t forgotten about the missed field goal in the Jacksonville playoff loss. I see what this kicker is up to. Can’t trust him.

But the Texans held on for the second week in a row by getting a huge defensive penalty to help them run out the clock. I’m not sure Chargers fans can complain much about that illegal contact that wiped out a third-down sack of Stroud. The Chargers also had two defensive penalties wipe out huge sacks on Herbert on their previous drive to score a touchdown.

This game is a pretty good sign that the Texans are more dangerous than the Chargers in the playoffs because of their defense and their offensive line doesn’t have turnstiles at offensive tackle. But I also think it helped  expose that the Houston offense is still likely to come up short before a Super Bowl appearance to keep this team out of the big game.

Crazy stat: Houston has never been a wild card team. All eight playoff appearances for the Texans have come as the AFC South winner, so we’ll see how that shakes out if Jacksonville wraps this division up on Sunday.

Ravens at Packers: King Henry Reigns Supreme

For a game with two backup quarterbacks, there were a lot of points and quality drive engineering between the Packers and Ravens on Saturday night. While the Ravens leaned on Derrick Henry, who dominated with 216 yards and 4 touchdowns, it was the Packers who surprisingly couldn’t run at all and leaned on Malik Willis to throw for 288 yards and rush for 60 yards and 2 touchdowns. Sadly, a late injury knocked him out and Clayton Tune was intercepted on a tipped ball.

But I think it’s clear that Matt LaFleur is going to help Willis get paid a ton of money from a team to be their starter in 2026 or 2027, a miraculous coaching job with a player who couldn’t throw for 100 yards in any of his starts as a rookie on the 2022 Titans. Maybe even his brother Mike LaFleur, the Rams offensive coordinator, will be hired by a team to make Willis work out as well as his brother has.

Good luck with that, but it was an impressive game from him on Saturday night. They didn’t lose this game because Jordan Love (concussion) was out. They lost because their defense, missing Micah Parsons, was pathetic, a familiar tune in Green Bay in big games.

The Packers are now 0-3 this year when they don’t punt in a game, which has never been done before in a season. The rest of the NFL is 10-0 this year. Green Bay is just the 10th team since 1950 to lose a game by at least 17 points without punting.

Next week: I get to look back at how bad my predictions were for this crazy season. We get the sacrificial lamb game first on Saturday to determine the No. 4 seed in the NFC. We get the No. 1 seed game at night, then it’s a pretty bland Sunday afternoon slate leading up to Ravens vs. Steelers for the AFC North.

NFL 2025 Week 16 Predictions: Top 5 Games of the Year Edition

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

I just remembered a few hours ago that we have two Saturday NFL games for Week 16. One (PHI-WAS) makes me think I don’t mind cleaning the cat’s shit boxes per Saturday routine and missing some plays, and the other (GB-CHI) might be great.

But it’ll take a lot to top what we watched Thursday night when the NFC Game of the Year lived up to the hype and then some. Rams-Seahawks was so good, so shocking, and so impactful that I can’t help but name it the Game of the Year for the 2025 NFL regular season.

Then I saw some people note we’ve had a bunch of GOTY candidates, and I had to come up with a list to see if there’s any truth to that. So, here is my top 5 games of the year for 2025:

  1. Week 16 – Seahawks 38, Rams 37
  2. Week 1 – Bills 41, Ravens 40
  3. Week 3 – Eagles 33, Rams 26
  4. Week 12 – Chiefs 23, Colts 20
  5. Week 4 – Cowboys 40, Packers 40

Probably not good for the Rams that two of the top three games involve them blowing leads of 19 and 16 points in the second half to the defending champs and the leader in their division right now. But the Rams have played entertaining games, and even the first Rams-Seahawks game was close to the top for watching how close Seattle was despite four Darnold interceptions.

We still have some big games left this year, though it’s a huge disappointment that both Commanders-Eagles games are trash and of little relevance. Those were supposed to be huge, but there were just too many injuries for Jayden Daniels and company this season.

This Week’s Articles

2025 NFL Quarterback Rankings Week 16: Who Imagined We’d See Philip Rivers on Christmas Week and Not Patrick Mahomes?
Scott’s Seven NFL Picks: Week 16

The last game of the year for Patrick Mahomes, and my NFL Week 16 picks explain why I’ve been saying for weeks that Drake Maye will have his first 300-yard passing game in Baltimore.

NFL Week 16 Predictions

I’m not sure if I’ve ever had a prediction where I took a team to cover at +1.5 and the opponent to win, but I did it for Rams-Seahawks and I can’t believe Seahawks by 1 worked out in the end. It’s the first game in NFL history where both teams scored a touchdown in overtime and the second team walked it off with a successful 2PC.

But could you imagine the outrage if the total fluke 2PC that tied the game at 30 in the 4Q was the game-winning 2PC in OT? What a disaster that would be, and I would imagine some rules committee discussions this offseason over that one (already saw Sean McVay said there will be).

WAS-PHI: Division games are tricky but I think Eagles get the win and I like DeVonta Smith for props (O56.5, TD).

GB-CHI: It was close at the end last time, and I think with the Micah Parsons injury and homefield switching to the turnover-crazed Bears, they get this one for the big NFC North lead.

LAC-DAL: Cowboys could be eliminated Saturday. But it’s a bigger game either way for the Chargers, and I’m trusting them with the better coach and defense despite the spread.

MIN-NYG: Feels like a game where Dart could get injured, and I think McCarthy will have a good stat line on that defense.

BUF-CLE: Myles Garrett gets his record-tying sack, Bills cover the spread anyway.

NYJ-NO: Tyler Shough is playing well and the Saints cover the laughably large spread after giving up 6 TD to Trevor Lawrence.

TB-CAR: I like the over 45.5 more than trusting either team on the spread, but I think Todd Bowles sees himself getting fired if they blow this division, so give me TB.

CIN-MIA: Hedging on Miami cover, but how funny would it be if the offense lit it up after Tua was benched? Ewers just needs to rely on that running game against the Bengals.

KC-TEN: With the Chiefs facing the 2 worst teams in the NFL this year in their last 3 games (Titans and Raiders), I’m sure fans will be very rational about how they play with Patrick Mahomes on IR. Very rational.

JAX-DEN: Could be a good one and a playoff preview, but I think the Broncos pull it out on a late FG.

ATL-ARI: Maybe a shootout? I’ll trust Captain Kirk in crunch time with his pass rush against Jacoby.

PIT-DET: Expecting solid scoring here, but I think the Lions win a 31-24 game here as they clearly need it more than the Steelers. Expect big things from Amon-Ra St. Brown. 20+ yards in the 1Q for starters. Maybe 2+ catches on the first drive. Exactly the kind of WR who can put up numbers on this defense.

LV-HOU: I tried the Raiders last week and they got crushed 31-0. Screw it, give me Houston and that defense.

NE-BAL: I already said I’m all in on Drake Maye having his first 300-yard passing game, but how about his first 4QC win too? He’s 0-7 in his career. Baltimore is the perfect opponent to do both against, the weather sounds like it’ll be fine, and I can see the Patriots pulling this one out 27-24 late to fill in some gaps in Maye’s resume. Just don’t tell me he’s MVP over Stafford.

SF-IND: I was originally liking the Colts ATS, but -5.5 isn’t as enticing as -6.5. Hard to say though. Philip Rivers should be better in game 2, but I think the 49ers win it after finding out they control their destiny for the No. 1 seed with Sam Darnold in Week 18 only standing in their way really. Could be a repeat of last year when the Lions beat Darnold’s Vikings in prime time to end the regular season and decide the No. 1 seed.

NFL 2025 Week 15 Predictions: The Return of Philip Rivers Edition

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

This 2025 NFL season has been crazy enough as is, but to bring back a 44-year-old Philip Rivers after five years away from the game? He’s literally a semifinalist for the 2026 HOF class at the moment. Then to call him up on a short week against an elite defense like Seattle? Good luck with that, but I’m not sure I’ve ever had more of a morbid curiosity in seeing how a game plays out than that one.

But beyond Rivers’ return, it is a fascinating week when you have multiple home underdogs who are on 10-game winning streaks in the Patriots and Broncos. Not only that, but they’re playing teams in the Bills and Packers who have some really bad losses as big favorites against the spread this season. Not to mention the Patriots already beat Buffalo in Buffalo.

Throw in the 6-7 Chiefs still being a 5.5-point favorite despite losing two in a row and losing to the 9-4 Chargers in Week 1, and I’m not sure if it’s the oddsmakers accurately assessing these new contenders in 2025, or if people are just betting with their hearts from last year and not adjusting to what’s going on this year.

Who’s right? Who’s actually a good team in 2025? It’s hard to say because it really does feel like a season where anyone can beat anybody, and these teams have four weeks to figure things out before the playoffs.

This Week’s Articles

2025 NFL Award Races: Final Quarter Look at Stafford vs. Maye for MVP, Coach of the Year, and the Myles Garrett vs. Micah Parsons Debate
2025 NFL Quarterback Rankings Week 15: The Texans May Have Ended the Postseason Streak for Patrick Mahomes After Chiefs Drop the Ball
https://www.365scores.com/news/scotts-seven-nfl-picks-week-15-2025

In looking at the NFL awards going into the final quarter, I see a vision for how the MVP can be decided in Week 16, Myles Garrett vs. Micah Parsons for DPOY, and 6 coaches who can have a case for Coach of the Year. But if Philip Rivers plays well, he’s a lock for Comeback Player of the Year, something I didn’t even have time to consider when I wrote that Monday night.

As for the QB rankings, Patrick Mahomes undoubtedly was let down by drops more on Sunday night than any other game in his career.

For Week 15 picks, I have parlays for Bills-Patriots, Chargers-Chiefs, Dolphins-Steelers, and yes, a Philip Rivers-themed SGP.

NFL Week 15 Predictions

I had the Falcons covering on TNF, but what a crazy 14-point comeback that was. Tampa really blew multiple opportunities for game-ending fumble recoveries, and Baker Mayfield missed that game-sealing throw on 2nd-and-14. Just another brutal loss for the Bucs (7-7), another common division winner having a down year.

NYJ-JAX: Don’t love the Jags with such a huge spread but Brady Cook isn’t any good, right?

ARI-HOU: There’s a decent chance Jacoby Brissett puts up a better stat line against Houston than Allen and Mahomes did. But I don’t think Houston scores enough to cover the spread, but the Texans will win.

BUF-NE: I’m taking the Bills to remind NE who’s run this division since 2020. A lot of bad turnovers for the Bills in the first matchup but the defense played fine for a half. Stefon Diggs carried the passing game for NE. I think Buffalo clamps down and gets the split even if the Patriots are still winning the AFC East this year.

LAC-KC: I can’t trust the Chiefs to cover right now, especially not 5.5. Both QBs don’t have their starting OTs, but the Chiefs better find a way to get a pass rush going against the Chargers’ joke of a line. This is basically their last stand for this season mattering.

LV-PHI: Give me Kenny Pickett to cover the spread in a low-scoring game. But it sure would be hilarious if he led a GWD in Philly.

BAL-CIN: I prefer the over more than the spread here. But I think the Ravens protect the ball far better than on Thanksgiving and put up their share of points on the Bengals, who just can’t stop anyone again.

WAS-NYG: Division games are always weird but I think Jaxson Dart can win by 3 against a poor defense that J.J. McCarthy beat 31-0.

CLE-CHI: Just feels like a sloppy game where Caleb Williams might need to lead a GWD to get the win by 1-7.

TEN-SF: Don’t believe the Titans after last week’s win. I think the 49ers win by 14+

DET-LAR: Rams will play well at home while the Lions won’t be able to keep up with that offense. Not enough DBs to handle Puka and Davante.

CAR-NO: Saints could certainly pull off another upset, but I think Carolina makes the most of another Tampa loss and gets the win here. close game though.

GB-DEN: Going to trust the Broncos at home to get it done. Big shock that these defenses have 22 turnovers between them, but I think the Broncos pull it out in the 4Q.

IND-SEA: As long as Darnold doesn’t throw a pick parade, I think Seattle wins big. Rivers should play the whole game though. They have no one else. That’s why they’re desperate enough to start grandpa.

MIN-DAL: I like a Jefferson TD but Cowboys win by 7.

MIA-PIT: No T.J. Watt but still shouldn’t be an issue. Steelers have won 22 straight at home on MNF and it’s going to be under 20 degrees. Dolphins will turtle up on the road again.

NFL 2025 Week 13 Predictions: Eagles Choke on the Down 15 Situation Edition

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

We’re already four games into NFL Week 13 with the holiday games, and the underdogs were 4-0 SU. More than that, they beat the Lions, Chiefs, Ravens, and Eagles who were all in the top five for Super Bowl 60 odds. It’s the kind of result we keep seeing this year as almost every team who was great in the regular season in 2024 is struggling in 2025.

It’s the story of the 2025 NFL season, and Philadelphia’s 24-15 loss to the Bears was especially shocking with the way Chicago ran for over 230 yards between the tackles alone against them. Just pure domination a day after we watched the Bengals turn over the Ravens and beat them down in Baltimore too.

But I feel the need to rant at 7 AM here about the Eagles’ decision to go for 2 in a 24-15 game with 3:10 left. How people think this is a good strategy is still beyond me. I usually rant about this once a year and I think this will have to serve as the 2025 rant on it. While I’m not against going for two early in all cases, there is a point on the clock where it becomes a silly endeavor that just ends the game earlier than it had to end. You could see how dejected the team and fans were after the Eagles, who struggled all day offensively again, failed on their 2PC pass, keeping it a two-possession game.

With how hard it’s become to recover an onside kick, I want no part of the strategy that’s going to lead me to having to recover one (or two). Make that a last resort.

But people still insist this is right when I just can’t get behind that. I’ve shared the data before, and I just updated some of it again to share.

Since 1994 when the NFL brought in the two-point conversion (2PC), we have seen 170 touchdowns scored in the fourth quarter by a team down by exactly 15 points at the time to make it a 9-point game. There were three games where a team did it twice in the quarter (including Bills vs. Ravens in Week 1 this year), so it’s actually 167 games total.

These teams are 11-155-1 (.069) in the game, and that’s not nice at all. It’s a dire situation to be in no matter how you approach it. But here are some more stats

  • Teams who kick the extra point first down 9 to make it an 8-point game are 135-of-138 on the extra point, and JOEY SLYE has all three misses for three different teams this decade. One of the craziest stats I’ve ever seen as kickers have been automatic in this spot except for one journeyman bum.
  • Team who go for the 2PC right away down 9 to try to make it a 7-point game are just 13-of-32 (40.6%) on the attempt, including a conversion from Chad Pennington in a 2007 Jets game with 0:00 left, so there was no point in even defending that as the game was over.
  • Meanwhile, of the 27 teams who kicked the extra point first and wound up scoring a second touchdown and needed a game-tying 2PC, they were 17-of-27 (63.0%). So, it’s all very small sample sizes since 1994, but that’s 40.6% vs. 63.0% for going for 2 early vs. late, giving some credence to the idea that, yes, teams who wait after proving they can score a 2nd TD on this defense have been better at converting for 2 when they had to have it.
  • Of the 11 teams who came back to win the game, 7 of them did it by scoring a TD/XP + TD/2PC + GW score later.

Four teams won in unique fashion, and three of them have been in this 2025 season as teams get more experimental on when to go for 2. But the main thing I want to stress is there’s never been a game in NFL history where a team won after trailing by 15, scoring a touchdown, converting a 2PC, then scoring another touchdown and either scoring a third time to win the game or going for two a second time to win the game by a point.

2020 Cowboys vs. Falcons: People love citing this example because it was literally 1-of-1 before this season. The Cowboys scored a touchdown with 4:57 left, which is considerably more time than the 3:10 the Eagles had on Friday. They failed on the 2PC, so they were still down 39-30, then they got the ball back, scored a TD/XP, then recovered a ridiculous onside kick to drive for a GW FG in a 40-39 win. All truly made possible for an all-time onside kick blunder.

2025 Bills vs. Ravens: This was Week 1 SNF and it’s another unique game because the Bills are the first team to try both down 15 strategies in the same quarter. They went for the 2PC and failed with 12:51 left. After Baltimore scored again, the Bills were down 40-25, then they switched course and kicked the XP with 3:56 left (40-32). Then they got the Derrick Henry fumble big break, then they got another TD, failed on their third 2PC of the quarter (40-38), then used their timeouts to force a three-and-out before driving for the GW FG (41-40).

2025 Cardinals vs. Titans: Another goofy ass game this year. The Titans were down 21-6, got a touchdown, Joey Slye missed the XP to keep it 21-12, but then the offense got a TD/XP after a Cam Ward interception was fumbled and returned for a touchdown by the offense (21-19). Then they got the ball back and won on a GW FG (22-21) for Slye to redeem himself. But this was a team going for the XP first and getting lucky to win even after it failed.

2025 Jets vs. Bengals: Here we go again with a historic game with a team incorporating multiple strategies. The Jets went for 2 after scoring a TD in a 31-16 game and converted to make it 31-24 with 14:17 left (plenty of time again). But after the Bengals got another TD (38-24), we saw the Jets execute the down 14 strategy next by going for 2 on their first TD drive, making it a 6-point game, then getting the go-ahead TD to go up 39-38 with 1:54 left. So, this win was really more about the down 14 strategy than what they did down 15.

Pretty interesting how we’re seeing the strategies evolve this season, but one thing I’m not seeing is any inherent value in going for 2 early in a game that is way too late like the Eagles faced on Friday. Kick the extra point, make it a 24-16 game, then keep the pressure on Chicago to do something stupid like a fumble, run out of bounds or throw incomplete to stop the clock, etc.

The Bears ended up moving the chains before giving up the ball on a turnover on downs, leaving the Eagles with 1:12 in a 9-point game and a long field. They ended up missing a 52-yard field goal with 0:09 left, and would have still needed an onside kick recovery (lucky if it’s 5% these days) and Hail Mary TD (good luck).

Now, maybe the Bears kick a 47-yard field goal on 4th-and-4 had it been a 24-16 game had the Eagles kicked an extra point instead of failing for 2. But let’s say they do the same thing, then Hurts would have had the ball in a 24-16 game with 70 yards to go in 72 seconds to tie the game. I like my chances a lot better in that spot.

Yet, I knew people would still defend Nick Sirianni’s decision, but I refuse to ever get behind it. With 14:00 left? Absolutely fine. With 7:30 left? Okay. But 3:10? Hell no. Watching it live, I gave up on the game the moment they failed on the 2PC and went to eat a piece of chocolate pie in the kitchen. This shit was over.

Now imagine how the players felt at that moment too. Any number advantage you think exists is so marginal to what impact actually failing on the 2PC does to the game in that spot. The only “information” gleamed here is you’re fvcked.

Until next season, my down 15 rant is over.

This Week’s Articles

2025 NFL Quarterback Rankings Week 13: Patrick Mahomes and Dak Prescott Set for Big Thanksgiving Showdown
Scott’s Seven NFL Picks: Week 13

NFL Week 13 Predictions

You know I originally had CHI ATS/PHI ML before switching it up to Eagles by 8. Whoops.

LAR-CAR: Season is really fvcked if the Rams lose this one but I do like the 1H spread better than the full game.

ARI-TB: Sounds like Baker is good to go, so I’m going with TB at home. Gotta get back in the win column.

TEN-JAX: Can the Jags actually blow anyone out? I’ll give TEN a bone to cover if they could cover the Seahawks, they could cover the Jags.

NO-MIA: Meh. Whatever.

SF-CLE: Really looking forward to seeing if Cleveland can match its 2023 upset against a better SF team when they made things tough on Purdy.

ATL-NYJ: All in on the Jeff Ulbrich revenge game for Atlanta’s defense roughing up the Jets.

HOU-IND: Yep, I’ll take the top defense and C.J. Stroud’s return while Daniel Jones has to operate on a fractured fibula. This might be Houston’s last stand in the AFC South.

MIN-SEA: What’s a Brosmer and why will he probably play better than J.J. McCarthy would have? Sam Darnold revenge game too.

BUF-PIT: Read my NFL picks for a parlay and more detail on this game. I’m hedging on the pick, but I really do think the Steelers can win this one with the running game and their takeaways against a shaky Buffalo team missing its OTs.

LV-LAC: Don’t expect much from LV who already lost 20-9 to these Chargers in Week 2.

DEN-WAS: I’ll be getting work done early Sunday night instead of laying on the couch for this one. Should have been flexed.

NYG-NE: Curious to see if Jaxson Dart can force Drake Maye to lead his first 4QC in the NFL, but it’s another horrible defense for Maye to face and one that can’t hold any leads either.