Tag: Jaguars

2025 NFL Stat Oddity: Wild Card Weekend

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

The story all season for the NFL in 2025 was new contenders. The Chiefs, Ravens, and Lions didn’t even make the playoffs. The Eagles didn’t win a playoff game, so we’ll have a new champion.

We only have three of the same final eight teams from 2024 (Bills, Rams, and Texans). The Broncos, Seahawks, Patriots, Bears, and 49ers are all new in that round. This should have led to a crazy, unpredictable postseason, and if wild card weekend is any indication, we’re getting one of the craziest postseasons in NFL history.

All six games had a comeback opportunity, and the first four all had a game-winning touchdown scored by a trailing team after the two-minute warning, a single-postseason record. There’s never been a postseason with more than five fourth-quarter comebacks, so we have a great shot of tying or exceeding that here.

We’ve also already had 12 fourth-quarter lead changes in six games, another single-postseason record with seven games left. There have been entire postseasons where there wasn’t a single fourth-quarter lead change like 2020 (COVID year with empty stadiums) or 2005 (No. 6 seed Pittsburgh won).

I predicted Eagles over Bills in Super Bowl 60 on Friday night, and that’s already halfway wrong after Philadelphia’s title defense ended in somewhat predictable fashion. The 49ers’ insane 22-year streak of either making the NFC Championship Game (7x) or missing the playoffs with a non-winning record (15x) is still alive and just has to get through Sam Darnold next week to continue for the 23rd year in a row.

But that’s next week. First, let’s recap the weekend, which I think you can argue is the best wild card weekend in NFL history. I don’t think any one game this weekend would make a top 5 list of NFL wild card playoff games, but the collective competitiveness of the weekend and the way these teams were just matching scores (for four games) in the fourth quarter was crazy to watch.

Something truly memorable from a weird season to this point.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Texans at Steelers: Same Old Steelers with Their Old Quarterback

The Steelers lost their seventh playoff game in a row as DeMeco Ryans has already matched Mike Tomlin’s last 15 seasons in playoff wins (3) in just three years on the job in Houston. What a job it’s been too. He just won a playoff game by 24 points on the road despite his quarterback, C.J. Stroud, turning the ball over three times with five fumbles (two lost).

But that 30-6 score is going to be one of the most misleading finals in postseason history. This was a 7-6 game at halftime and going into the fourth quarter. It was only 10-6 Houston when Pittsburgh foolishly called another run on 2nd-and-10 that lost 2 yards as they never got a ground game going all night.

Then on 3rd-and-12, Rodgers was buried in the backfield, coughed up the ball, and the Texans returned it for a touchdown. You could definitely argue there was a blow to the head that made his helmet move that could have been called for roughing the passer to negate the turnover and touchdown.

If this is Rodgers’ last playoff game (or game period), maybe it’s fitting it ends with a fumble-six after an uncalled penalty, shades of no facemask call on him in Arizona in the 2009 wild card loss. Actually, his last pass of the night here ended up being a fourth-down pick-six as the Texans have now scored six return touchdowns in just five playoff games in the Stroud-Ryans era. It’s possible his last pass is a playoff pick-six after his last pass as a Packer was a game-ending interception at home in a game with playoff implications against the Lions.

It usually never ends well. For the Steelers, nothing has ended well in the last decade, but I’ll say this one was a little different since you really can’t blame the defense. Sure, they had poor plays on third downs all night, but it was a 10-6 game with 13:00 left. Do something on offense. The Steelers got a Stroud fumble at the Houston 21 and moved the ball 4 yards before settling for a field goal.

They stuck to their guns, which means they have no identity on offense. They had some good plays early to D.K. Metcalf before he dropped a big pass and shut down the rest of the night. Pat Freiermuth’s usage all season was criminal, but that’s what happens when your QB is so WR-centric and your OC is in love with Jonnu Smith.

The Steelers even led 3-0 after the first quarter, a big departure from their usual 21-0 deficit in the playoffs. But the Texans still got to 30 points, extending their record streak to 7 playoff games allowing 28+ points. They also set a record with a fifth-straight playoff loss by double digits.

The Houston defense is great, but the Steelers had them on their heels early and just got worse by the drive. No touchdowns scored. It was actually better when the Steelers would lose a 45-42 playoff game at home. At least the offense could score after some mistakes. This was impotency.

This team was false hope all year. They’d look good for a half against a contender, then they’d get crushed after halftime against the Seahawks, Chargers, Packers, Bills, and now the Texans.

And the sad part is nothing really changes until they fire Tomlin and get lucky with a high draft pick on a quarterback. That’s the only way you’re going to get fundamental change in Pittsburgh.

I think 600 words will suffice, because what more could you say at this point? Same old Steelers.

Packers at Bears: Finally, This Rivalry Is Worth Watching in Prime Time

The 2025 Packers-Bears just gave us the best trilogy since, what, Nolan’s Batman? For years we had to endure this dated rivalry in an island game, but with the arrival of coach  Ben Johnson in Chicago, we got three great games late in the season with the Bears winning both meetings at Soldier Field in dramatic comeback fashion as they’ve done all year.

I’m not sure if Johnson’s vitriol for the Packers stems from his Lions days (jealousy?), or if it’s just manufactured bravado to endear himself with the Chicago community. But he may have ended Matt LaFleur’s time in Green Bay or at least limited it to one more season at best after a total collapse from the Packers, who lost their last four regular-season games before blowing a 21-3 lead on the road, and a 15-point lead in the fourth quarter (only the fourth time that’s happened in the playoffs after Roger Staubach’s comeback off the bench in 1972, the 2002 49ers vs. Giants, and Super Bowl 51).

The wild part is, much like John Harbaugh losing his Baltimore job on the swing of a kicker’s 44-yard field goal, it’s not like Johnson badly outcoached LaFleur in this game. In fact, some curious decisions by Johnson on fourth downs (Dan Campbell’s protégé) helped lead to the Bears trailing 21-3 at halftime. Green Bay kicker Brandon McManus also cost the team 7 points by missing three makeable kicks.

The Packers, who never won another game after Micah Parsons tore his ACL in Denver, wasted one of Jordan Love’s best games of the season. He didn’t turn the ball over, he distributed the ball very well to his wideouts with four of them catching a touchdown, including the first of the year for rookie Matthew Golden after they got him in space to show off his speed. Love did this with Josh Jacobs not producing a damn thing on the ground after halftime, which is part of why the Packers became ineffective and kept giving the ball back to the Bears to make this 18-point comeback.

Caleb Williams looked like a young quarterback going through first-playoff start jitters. He threw two interceptions on fourth downs, one of which shouldn’t have been caught as it cost the Packers 27 yards in field position.

But the Bears were hanging in there at 21-6 in the fourth quarter, then proceeded to catch quite a few breaks. Williams nearly lost a fumble on a 3rd-and-10 sack, but the Bears recovered the ball and were able to kick the 51-yard field goal to make it 21-9.

After Love was called for his second grounding penalty of the half, the Bears scored a touchdown to make it 21-16. The Packers overcame some mistakes and made it 28-16 on Golden’s great touchdown with 6:36 left. That should have been a dagger, but these 2025 Bears don’t know when to die.

But it’s funny how the key turning point of the game was the result of the Bears not being well prepared on offense, which should be Johnson’s expertise area, and getting bailed out for it to save the game. Chicago faced a 4th-and-3 at midfield with 5:37 left. Hurrying to get the snap off, the Bears snapped the ball over Williams’ head, which would have been a disastrous, likely game-ending turnover on downs.

But the Bears were penalized for a false start, setting up a 4th-and-8, and given a second chance, Williams made the throw of his career to find Rome Odunze for 27 yards. Game on from there.

It could have been curtains without the false start, so that’s how another Chicago mistake actually saved the game. The Bears turned that drive into 8 points and it was 27-24 with 4:18 left. But then it was LaFleur’s turn to ruin the game for his team with infuriating timeout usage. He burned one after an incomplete pass brought up 3rd-and-10, then the Packers immediately suffered a delay of game coming out of it anyway. Inexcusable.

That’s when McManus missed the 44-yard field goal with 2:51 left. Not the biggest miss of the game for him if you ask me. He missed the extra point after Golden’s touchdown that would have made it 28-16 with 6:36 left. That would have meant the Bears had to score two touchdowns instead of possibly settling for 8+3 or 3+8.

The Bears ended up scoring 2 touchdowns anyway, but look at the impact that point had. Instead of trailing 31-28 or 29-28 after Chicago’s last score, it was a 31-27 deficit, meaning Love had to get a touchdown with 1:36 and one timeout left instead of a field goal.

Green Bay’s usage of that final timeout was also questionable, then as fate would have it, an injury led to a 10-second runoff, making things even harder. Love almost had Golden for a touchdown on one play, but then he fumbled the final snap and had to fire a pass to the end zone that fell incomplete, and the Bears extended their record with a seventh win this season after trailing in the final 2:00.

Going into this game, I would have thought the rumors of LaFleur getting fired with a loss were BS. But after seeing the way it played out and thinking about all the big-game failures he’s had in seven years, the Packers might be wise for a change of leadership here.

It probably wasn’t going to be a Super Bowl season anyway for the Packers after losing Parsons, but that second half was coaching malpractice. It wouldn’t be so crazy for LaFleur to be moving on to another team for 2026 now.

As for the Bears, what more can you say? Caleb Williams is exactly the reason why a stat like EPA per play isn’t the end-all, be-all of stats for quarterbacks. Can you get the job done and score when you have to no matter how many downs or snaps it takes? He seems to be pretty good at that, and some of the throws are just incredible. Still misses his share of easy ones, but he can get better with that.

It should be quite the game with the Rams next week, another new matchup. The Rams have already allowed five game-winning drives, so Williams might have a shot at tying the single-season 4QC/GWD records with eight each.

Bills at Jaguars: The Trevor Lawrence Legacy Game Goes as Expected

The Buffalo pass defense. Like I’ve been saying for over a month, the Buffalo pass defense in a playoff field without Patrick Mahomes is why this team can get to the Super Bowl even without home games or a good run defense. They just have to stop some unproven quarterbacks in crunch time, and Lawrence was the first on their list, bringing the season totals to 8 saves and 0 blown leads for the Bills.

Oh, there were lead changes in the fourth quarter just as there were in all the early games this weekend. But when it came time for the final drive and Lawrence had a solid minute to get a kicker with incredible range into position, he immediately threw a pick to end the season.

But I think the game was lost well before that. The Jaguars should have had a run-heavy approach in this one. How does Tuten rip off runs of 20, 14, and 13 yards to end the first quarter and get one more carry the rest of the game? How?

They put their eggs in Lawrence’s basket, and while he settled down later in the game and made some nice throws, he killed them early with a pick that led to a 1-yard field goal drive for the Bills. He killed them when he ducked under a defender and his shin was down short on a 4th down in the red zone when the Jags had a chance to go up 14-3 after the Bills fumbled a kickoff.

It was evident early that Lawrence wasn’t on his A game, but the Jaguars didn’t do enough to test that run defense of the Bills. Also, the Jags were gifted a 54-yard field goal attempt before halftime that I’m not sure they deserved by beating the clock (did they really?), and Cam Little, after all the praise for his record-long kicks, missed it. That hurts in a 3-point loss.

But the Bills had a good offensive plan to throw those little short passes to Shakir to pace the offense on a day where James Cook was bottled up by the No. 1 run defense. Maybe a few too many Josh Allen designed runs when he’s banged up, but they made it work. And of course with the season on the line, he went to the Tush Push again, and this time he was pushed ahead for a 10-yard gain on 4th-and-1 with the season on the line.

That play was so weird to me. You obviously want to stop them since it’s fourth down. But once he got moving like that, do you just let them score? It was 24-20, so Buffalo absolutely needed a touchdown, but what if you stop them at the 5? You can still get a stop there to win the game. Once he got to the 1, why not just let him go the distance? Weird play.

Then Buffalo was stuck in no man’s land since you really don’t want to risk wasting a down with a bad play and getting a penalty or something stupid to push you back. Ideally, you’d run clock there and score on 2nd down with the sneak, leaving the Jaguars less than 20 seconds to work with. But they scored on first down, whether by design or not, and the Jaguars were going to get the ball back in a 27-24 game with 59 seconds left.

But you get a wild tipped ball that’s intercepted, and just like that, the season is over for the Jaguars. To evoke Dan Campbell, this may have been their best shot too in this AFC. But that’s one road win and one postseason game-winning drive in the books for Allen, who had neither of those things in his career before Sunday.

Next up is Denver as I predicted it’d be, and I think they have a very good shot of winning that one too because of their pass defense against Bo Nix. Again, someone has to be willing to run to take this team down, and someone better get Allen to the ground on defense. That’s why Houston is really the danger team for the Bills, but they may end up avoiding them here.

So far, so good.

Rams at Panthers: Stafford with MVP-Style Revenge Against Carolina

I kept saying the spread (Rams -10.5) was always too high for a team that’s been shaky in the last month like the Rams, who have already blown games as a huge favorite along with two huge leads in the second half against the Eagles and Seahawks. They already lost in Carolina in Week 13.

The Rams prevailed 34-31 this time, but it did show why they’re a shaky bet to go the distance. The short-yardage runs, the fourth-down decision making, the defensive play as of late, and some turnovers from Stafford and the offense are not leading to dominant play late in the season.

In this game, Stafford completed his first eight passes with Puka Nacua doing whatever he wants. But then Stafford hit his hand on a helmet and wasn’t the same. Nacua dropped a 46-yard touchdown going into halftime, and the Rams had a huge turnover on downs moment late in the second quarter. I get why McVay went for it; to control the rest of the clock and go into halftime up 13-17 points. But by not getting it, the Rams only led by 3.

Bryce Young was more than solid in his first playoff game. Certainly a few plays he’d like to have back, but the running game wasn’t there for him, and he made some clutch throws in big spots to finish with 264 passing yards.

Young did lead two go-ahead touchdown drives in the fourth quarter, but the defense was unable to hold up. They had a chance at a Stafford interception on a mix-up with Nacua with just under 12:00 left, but Puka made a play on the ball to force an incompletion on a drive that ended with a touchdown instead.

But when the Rams got the ball back with 2:34 left, it was all calmness and precision from Stafford on the 71-yard march to win the game. He reportedly told Davante Adams that it was time to go rip their hearts out, which he did. He threw a 19-yard touchdown to Colby Parkinson with 38 seconds left.

Young got the ball back in a 34-31 game with all three timeouts, so that gives you access to the entire playbook and you can use every square inch of the field with no concern for the clock. However, he unfortunately saved his worst drive for the last as the Panthers couldn’t gain a yard, and Young threw four straight incompletions to end the game on downs.

Horn had a chance at a low catch on fourth down, but by that point, you’re down to under 7 seconds and still not in field goal range, so the real failure of the drive came well before the final snap. Just not the execution we saw from Young in these moments in the regular season, and it cost them at the end here.

But it was still a great effort for an 8-9 team that was the biggest home underdog in NFL playoff history. Scary times for the Rams, but they prevailed and are moving onto Chicago.

49ers at Eagles: Repeating Is Hard

The 2025 Eagles were able to end a long drought and repeat as NFC East champions, but the only other repeat they’re going to end 2025 with is reminding us that this offense played half-assed football all season going back to opening night against Dallas when they only scored a field goal after a great first half.

The Eagles repeatedly did this all season, so it’s no surprise their season ended in this fashion. They scored two touchdowns on their first three drives, then never found the end zone on their last seven possessions. A.J. Brown bitched about targets all year and finished this game with 3 catches for 25 yards and some bad drops/incompletions. He might have played his last game with Philly.

Meanwhile, the 49ers hung in there and made it work without Ricky Pearsall, then they lost tight end George Kittle to a torn Achilles early in the game. Demarcus Robinson set the tone early with a 61-yard catch-and-run in stride on the opening drive, which he finished with a touchdown on his way to 111 yards.

Brock Purdy wasn’t perfect with a couple of interceptions, but he played well to get to 262 yards and 2 touchdowns without Kittle and Pearsall. They also couldn’t run the ball for much (16 carries for 51 yards). But on the first play of the fourth quarter, they brought back a trick play from Super Bowl 58 with Jauan Jennings throwing a 29-yard touchdown that required a great diving catch from Chrisitan McCaffrey to take a 17-16 lead. Both teams missed an extra point in the game (Eagles early, 49ers late).

The Eagles didn’t have Lane Johnson at tackle, which hurt as there were some big holding penalties that killed drives in the second half. They were able to turn Purdy’s second pick into a field goal drive that took a 19-17 lead with 8:00 left. But a defense that’s wilted in some fourth quarters blew a fifth lead this year. Purdy led a 66-yard march, finishing on third down with a 4-yard touchdown pass to CMC for a 23-19 lead with 2:54 left after the extra point was missed.

The 49ers probably should have gone for 2 there as 4 vs. 5 is little difference, and at least if you’re up 6 points, the other team might miss the extra point as we’ve seen Jake Elliott do this year.

Anyways, it was on Hurts to deliver a game-winning drive, which would have been his first in the postseason. It was nearly a four-and-out drive after a horrible drop by Brown on third down. But Dallas Goedert cleaned it up with 15 yards on fourth-and-5. However, once the drive reached the San Francisco 20, things stalled out. The poor pass rush for the 49ers got home for a 1-yard loss on a sack, then Hurts threw three straight incompletions to end the season for the Eagles.

On 4th-and-11, Hurts threw to Goedert with three defenders around him and it was closer to a pick than anything. I’m not sure he had any real other options on the play, but that’s season over there. The 49ers pulled it off.

I was going to reply to a tweet I saw before kickoff about the bad EPA rankings for the 49ers’ defense this year, and I keep hearing the sentiment that they’re a bottom-5 defense, which doesn’t jive with their ranking of 13th in points and 16th in points per drive allowed.

Again, this is an example of how EPA can miss some fundamental information. That’s a stat that can get juiced and heavily inflated by splash plays like sacks and turnovers. So, it’s not a surprise the 49ers don’t look good in EPA when they don’t get many splash plays. But they must be doing something right if they’re usually not getting destroyed on the scoreboard.

Throw in the struggles of the Eagles to play a 60-minute game on offense, and the 49ers always had a good shot of pulling this one out as a low-scoring game you win in the fourth quarter. That’s exactly what happened too.

They can do the same thing in Seattle, a team they’ve held to 13 points in both meetings this year. But we have all week to build up that one.

The Eagles are done. No repeat for them like I foolishly picked on Friday night. But I thought the defense would be better than this as I didn’t see getting killed by Robinson and a touchdown pass from Jennings leading to the end for this team.

Finally, I don’t think it’s hindsight to question why Nick Sirianni didn’t try to get that No. 2 seed last week by beating Washington. Wouldn’t you rather face a banged-up Green Bay team that’s lost four in a row? A team you already beat in a low-scoring game instead of a 49ers team that is well coached and still has some elite players, and they never seem to go one-and-done in the postseason. They can score too with Purdy, so yeah, I think that was a tactical error by Sirianni.

Not to mention getting home-field over Chicago if you’re the No. 2 seed. I didn’t like that decision to rest last week, and I really don’t like it now after what we saw from the Eagles on Sunday.

Chargers at Patriots: Roman, Lend Me Your Ears So I Can Whisper “You’re Fired”

The last NFL team to score 3 points in a playoff game before the Chargers on Sunday night was the Ravens in Buffalo during COVD. Who was the offensive coordinator? Greg Roman. I think we’ve seen enough of him here, and while it’s clearly not all his fault, he’s wasting Justin Herbert’s talent and hasn’t gotten any good results in the big games the last two years. I think they should make him the sacrificial lamb and fire him over this one after the Chargers scored 22 points in the final three games of the season.

Moving onto the quarterback, these Herbert playoff appearances keep getting worse. Now 0-3, I actually think he was better last year when he threw four interceptions (one dropped, one down 20) in Houston compared to this impotent performance with 3 points making the 2025 Patriots look like the 2003 Patriots. The weather wasn’t even an issue.

I also think that Houston game might be messing with him mentally, because how do you not pull the trigger to McConkey on this play early?

You can’t be too worried about throwing picks in a game like this. That’s how you end up scoring 3 points and just running or taking sacks all night because you’re scared of putting the ball 10 yards down the field. Terrible mindset to have in a playoff game.

The thing is the pass protection wasn’t really that bad until it was 16-3 in the fourth quarter. Then Herbert was swarmed and engulfed. But the damage had already been done earlier on the first seven drives.

As for Drake Maye in his first playoff game, he was bad. He was inaccurate against a zone defense. He turned into a sack merchant again, going down 5 times (lost over 6 yards per sack too this time so he wasn’t even mitigating the losses this week), and he should have had two lost fumbles, and the second one could have been an easy touchdown for the Chargers that would have made it an interesting 16-10 game with time. Most of his big plays were blown coverage or huge YAC on a checkdown to Stevenson.

Just not impressed, and objectively I don’t know how people can praise a 16-point performance like this from a quarterback. But it was his first playoff game, and he at least did better in the second half after a poor first half. Just interesting to note that in his second NFL win over a winning team, he had a 6-3 lead at halftime in both games (this and at Buffalo).

There’s also the fact that Vrabel and New England are used to these low-scoring playoff wins.

What’s next, two special teams touchdowns against Houston while Josh Dobbs has to come off the bench and direct a win? Then beating the Rams in the Super Bowl with 13 offensive points? Or is that only reserved for Brady?

Neither the Texans nor Patriots allowed a touchdown this week, so who knows what to expect from that one. But based on this game, I wouldn’t expect a ton of scoring from Maye in the passing game.

But the Chargers are in a tough spot as they need a new OC and they’ll probably lose their DC (Jesse Minter) to a head coaching Job. I’m not sure you can ever trust Herbert in one of these games until he proves he can get the job done. And they’re always on the road because they can seemingly never win this division. The Chiefs won’t be down for long, and the Broncos have a lot of good players and a coach on par with Harbaugh.

The 2025 Chargers had that built-in excuse with the offensive tackles going out, but I’m surprised at how little of a factor that was for three quarters on Sunday. Just played a lot of bad, passive football and that can be even worse than getting aggressive and throwing some picks.

At least they scored more points last year in Houston.

Next week: I always say the divisional round is the best weekend of the NFL year, but it’s got a high bar to clear after what we just saw. It’s also going to try to do it by introducing the top seeds, Seattle and Denver, into the mix. We’ll see if the Texans can sack the Patriots, and Rams vs. Bears could be the shootout of the postseason.

NFL 2025 Wild Card Predictions: Path to Super Bowl 60 Edition

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

The 2025 NFL season has been so hard to predict that I wish I could find a way to write off all 14 playoff teams. The good news is 13 of them will lose in the next month, and this is the moment where I make that prediction for the last team standing.

There are so many teams that I feel like you can immediately write off for one huge reason that will inevitably doom them in trying to win 3-4 playoff games in a row:

  • Panthers – They’re just not good enough.
  • Patriots – Schedule merchants who aren’t ready to go the distance
  • Steelers – Tomlin’s playoff defense will eventually implode
  • Texans – Defense is great but that offense is going to tank them eventually
  • Chargers – Offensive line won’t hold up for 4 road wins
  • Broncos – Stagnant offense that waits until the 4th quarter to score will doom them
  • Bears – Way too reliant on D/ST fueling late-game comebacks
  • Packers – Not enough horses to go on No. 7 seed run without Parsons and Kraft

That leaves six teams who I feel can win it all even though they have a glaring issue that concerns me. But it’s something I feel the rest of the team can cover up for a game or two that they can maybe squeak by.

  • Bills – Run defense has been playing better and not sure who in the AFC can really run wild on them.
  • Jaguars – A shame one has to lose Sunday but this could either be Trevor Lawrence’s chance to be Eli/Flacco/Foles or he implodes with too much responsibility
  • Seahawks – I don’t trust Sam Darnold but he probably has the best situation going for him and he almost beat the Rams after throwing 4 INTs because of that team support.
  • 49ers – Still think a core that’s been to two Super Bowls can get back home for SB 60 but the injuries (Bosa, Warner, Pearsall, etc.) make it so tough on the road.
  • Eagles – Yes, their offense should probably have them in the first category, but this is why track record matters and I’m still willing to give the 2-time NFC champs with the reigning SB MVP a shot (defense is better than a year ago too).
  • Rams – Probably played as well as any team has all year but they’ve blown five games and struggle to close and it’s usually the little things (short yardage runs, FG kicking, 4th down stops on D, etc.).

So how do I see it playing out? Many, many ways if I’m being honest. But if you want one version of my vision today, here it goes:

Rams take care of the Panthers, Packers eliminate the Bears, and the Eagles take out the 49ers this weekend in the NFC.

Bills outlast the Jags, the Chargers go chargering in New England, and the Steelers finally win one for Tomlin to take out the best defense.

Seattle survives a scare from Green Bay in the 7-1 matchup, and the Eagles find a way again to deny McVay and Stafford.

Buffalo eliminates Denver for the second year in a row, and the Steelers lose a game they should have won in New England.

Vic Fangio puts Sam Darnold in a blender and he implodes against that secondary like everyone expected him to do.

The Bills do it to the Patriots again at Foxboro as Josh Allen has his first playoff game-winning drive while Maye can’t close again.

Super Bowl 60 is a rematch from Week 17: Bills vs. Eagles but in good weather. However, the Bills’ lack of wideouts hurts them against that defense again, and the Eagles find a way to repeat despite hearing all year how their offense is garbage. But don’t sleep on that defense, and I still think Jalen Hurts has the ability to rise to the occasion with the talent around him to make some necessary plays that he didn’t really have to do last postseason. This time, he gets it done and the Eagles do in fact pull off the repeat.

I don’t love it. In fact, I’d rather see something like Texans vs. 49ers since I bet on it over a month ago, or maybe the Packers do the unthinkable and go to the Super Bowl as the first No. 7 seed after I picked them the last two years to do so.

But this is where I am. I’m also very open to the Rams getting it done by actually closing games out, which would mean getting rid of the Eagles in the divisional round and getting some revenge on Darnold for that blown 16-point lead in what was the game of the year for the regular season. Jacksonville winning this weekend would also throw a huge wrench in my vision, but if that happens, then I really do believe Lawrence can do the Eli/Flacco/Foles thing here.

We’re overdue for one of those anyway, aren’t we?

NFL Wild Card Picks

Already let the cat out of the bag with this weekend’s picks, but for spread purposes, here are my wild card picks:

  • Rams 26, Panthers 20 – That spread (Rams -10.5) is too high but the Rams move on
  • Packers 24, Bears 17- Snow game? Run the ball, GB.
  • Bills 24, Jaguars 20 – Maybe lower scoring than expected, but I think the Bills will have more balanced offense and Lawrence will have a big pick.
  • Eagles 20, 49ers 17 – Lowest scoring game of the week.
  • Patriots 23, Chargers 20 – Dicker the Kicker choke incoming? Does Maye have a Tuck Rule moment in him for his first playoff game?
  • Steelers 26, Texans 23 – More points than expected as Aaron Rodgers finds a way to get it done against the top defense.

This Week’s Articles

Guess I really wrote this ass-backwards this week, but here are links to my final QB rankings of 2025 (won’t be doing anymore until July), Fraud Alert Ratings for 2025 playoff teams, and about 12,000 words in full previews on every Wild Card game.

2025 Final NFL Quarterback Rankings: Matthew Stafford Is the MVP
2025 NFL Fraud Alert Rating: Should We Trust the Bears and Patriots in the Playoffs?
2025 NFC Wild Card Preview: Are We Sleeping on the Philadelphia Eagles Repeating?
2025 AFC Wild Card Preview: Without the Chiefs and Ravens, Things Feel Wide Open This Year
Scott’s Seven NFL Picks: 2025 Wild Card Weekend

2025 NFL Stat Oddity: Week 14

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

I said Sunday could prove to be a franchise-altering day in the AFC, and I think the results speak for themselves.

  • The Colts (8-5) have likely gone from 7-1 and the No. 1 seed to out of the playoffs after losing to the Jaguars again and losing Daniel Jones to a torn Achilles.
  • The Bengals (4-9) blew a snow game in Buffalo that should absolutely give the team the green light to fire Zac Taylor and his entire staff after Joe Burrow and company will miss the playoffs for a third-straight season.
  • The Ravens (6-7) lost at home to the Steelers (7-6), and while the AFC North is hardly decided, Baltimore still has to play the Patriots and Packers (teams competing for No. 1 seeds), and teams they just lost to at home (Bengals and Steelers on the road). If there was ever a season to force John Harbaugh out of town…
  • The Chiefs (6-7) couldn’t finish another close game against a good team and are on life support for the playoffs, needing to win out and for the Colts and Chargers to lose multiple games (actually not that unrealistic). But with how this year has gone, they’d be foolish not to make some major changes for 2026 as their AFC West reign is over and so may be their playoff streak.

I just wrote earlier this week how we’re trying to make sense of the new contenders this year and the unprecedented decline of so many contenders at once.  However, saying teams like the Bengals, Ravens, and Chiefs (Steelers too) need to make big changes for 2026 is not an overreaction to one off year. There have been things festering for multiple years there, and with the teams in dire situations going into Week 15, maybe they’ll finally realize something has to change.

As for the rest of Week 14, a lot of the games were duds as we’ve only had six comeback opportunities. In fact, the only double-digit comeback win of the last two weeks was the Bills over Bengals today, and the only fourth-quarter lead change on Sunday was Joe Burrowing throwing that pick-six in Buffalo.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Texans at Chiefs: Game of the Day

You have to give the 2025 Chiefs credit. If this was their last stand for the playoffs, and that’ll look increasingly likely if the Chargers win on Monday night, then they gave the home crowd all the greatest hits to their season:

  • An embarrassing pass rush when they didn’t blitz, leaving numerous receivers wide open on third-and-longs.
  • No takeaways on defense again.
  • Harrison Butker had about the loudest doink ever on a missed 42-yard field goal.
  • Limited touches for Brashard Smith (a 7-yard run) and Tyquan Thornton (19 yards but also had a touchdown bomb knocked away in the end zone) despite showing solid play.
  • Remember when the first pass of the season was Travis Kelce running into Xavier Worthy in Brazil? The first pass here saw backup left tackle Wanya Morris suffer a game-ending injury, leaving the offensive line without three starters and placing a third-string left tackle (UDFA rookie) in his NFL debut against the No. 1 defense.
  • Mahomes led the team in rushing with 59 yards (they’re 0-4 this year when that happens).
  • Season on the line, a pass from Mahomes went right off of Kelce’s hands for an interception (third time this year).

But there were a couple wrinkles in this performance that made it stand out as the worst loss of them all this season for the Chiefs: Aggression inconsistency and dropped passes.

The Chiefs, even going back to last year, have made a habit of playing games with limited possessions, usually getting 8-9 drives a week, the lowest total in the NFL. This makes it harder on the offense as every mistake gets magnified, but they made it work better last year with clutch plays to close out one-score games. The exact kind of plays they keep failing on this year.

But this game was different. The Chiefs had a season-high 13 possessions as each team had the ball 13 times. That’s because there were a lot of three-and-out drives and quick stops. It wasn’t a game with limited possessions, so the Chiefs could stand to make some mistakes here as the defense played well even after losing top corner Trent McDuffie early.

That’s why Andy Reid’s fourth-down decision making didn’t make any sense. He let the Dallas game beat him twice, because he was criticized in that one for a fourth-down punt in a shootout with Dallas. But this wasn’t a shootout. It was a grind with C.J. Stroud playing ice cold in the second half.

Reid let the offense go for a 4th-and-1 that led to a 2-yard Kareem Hunt touchdown in the third quarter. They needed the touchdown, so that was fine. But two drives later, why settle for the 36-yard field goal on 4th-and-2 at the 18 to tie the game with 1:50 left in the third? Why not be consistent and go for it again with your offense starting to move it well and the defense playing so well? You were getting possessions.

Then the real head-scratcher: 4th-and-1 at your own 31 in a 10-10 game with 10:22 left. The Texans just punted on a 4th-and-1 at their own 35, because they knew what kind of game this was. Why didn’t Reid understand it? Instead, he let the offense go for it, and Mahomes’ pass to Rashee Rice was defended tightly by Stingley, and I couldn’t tell if it was another defensed-dropped or what. But it was a turnover on downs either way.

Now a struggling Houston offense was set up 31 yards away from the end zone, and that gave the Texans new life to get a go-ahead touchdown, which they did. That decision largely killed the Chiefs in this game.

Then in getting the ball back in a 17-10 game, Reid basically did it again, going for a 4th-and-4 at his own 41 where failure almost likely leads to a 10-point deficit with under 5:00 left. Game over against this defense. And once again, Mahomes’ pass to Rice was flat out dropped.

Surprisingly, Houston went three-and-out after that one, giving Mahomes another chance from 92 yards away and 3:44 left. After a short drop by Kelce on first down, Mahomes threw a pass that should have been a first down to him that went off his hands and right to the defense for the third pick of the night. The second one to start the fourth quarter was an arm punt on third down out of FG range and out of 4-down territory, but this one hurt and it’s something Kelce has done three times this year to Mahomes – none bigger than here.

That one was the dagger as the Texans used up most of the clock to add a field goal for a 20-10 lead with 0:30 left. From there, it was just two stat-padding completions to avoid Mahomes finishing a full game with under 150 passing yards for the first time in his career. It was the first time he threw for 3 interceptions and no touchdowns.

But look what it took to get there. Three linemen out, the backup LT going out on play 1, the No. 1 defense on the other side, and a career-high 8 or 9 drops depending how you want to count some of those plays. Those drops combined with some really poor fourth-down decision making by Reid were actually far more damaging to the game than the backup offensive line was. This wasn’t Super Bowl 55 or Super Bowl 59 all over again with constant pass rush.

This was receivers not getting open against good coverage, then when they did, not completing plays as Mahomes has never had this many drops in one game. Just a ridiculous effort in the biggest game of the year for this team.

If this was Kelce’s last playoff-contention type of game in his NFL career, he finishes it with more drops (2) than catches (1) for the first time in his career. I’d say Mahomes might be a little happy on the downlow if Kelce chooses to retire and marry the most famous woman in the world. But then when you tell me Rice, who dropped a big third-and-8 in Dallas last week in a similar clutch situation, is supposed to be his next top target, I think the Chiefs are in some long-term trouble if they don’t sort this out.

On a cold night with both teams feeling the playoff pressure, the Texans stepped up and the Chiefs did not.

Fight or flight. The 2018-24 Chiefs had it in them to get it done in these games. The 2025 Chiefs simply do not, and the shame of it all is people will look at a game like this and still blame it all on the quarterback.

As for the Texans, they have hands down the best defense in the league this season. They were also very good in 2024, so we know this isn’t a fluke. They’ve been to the playoffs the last two years, got to the divisional round both times, and if they keep playing like this, they just might be able to win out until the Super Bowl in this weakened AFC. They might be the closest team we’ve seen to the 2015 Broncos from a decade ago, and yes, Davis Mills did his Brock Osweiler-level job of saving the season with some big wins over the Jags and Bills.

From 0-3 to 8-5, DeMeco Ryans and company deserve a lot of credit for this turnaround. As for Reid and the Chiefs, they aren’t mathematically eliminated, but it sure looks dire even if collapses by the Chargers (see schedule) and Colts (Jones/schedule) are not improbable at all.

What’s improbable is thinking the 2025 Chiefs can ever get through four straight wins without screwing up a game. They haven’t done it all year, and I no longer expect them to.

It’s a lost season.

Steelers at Ravens: The Rivalry Continues, Same As It Ever Was

This may be a selfish reason to want the continued employment of Mike Tomlin and John Harbaugh for these teams, but would the Steelers vs. Ravens rivalry be the same without them? Like, imagine these teams go in the opposite direction and hire some dorks trying to cosplay as Kyle Shanahan and Sean McVay. It just wouldn’t be the same and what makes this such a great rivalry filled with hard-fought, close games.

You can always throw out the records and spreads when these teams play. Did it matter that both played like shit at home in big losses last week where they turned it over and the quarterbacks were brutal? Nope, you ended up with a 27-22 thriller between two multi-time MVPs at quarterback in their first ever meeting.

Aaron Rodgers turned 42 this week but he looked as good as he has all season. He hit a deep ball to DK Metcalf on his first pass after going an entire month without a pass completed over 20 yards down the field. I want to say he had four in this game alone. He also scored his first rushing touchdown in over four years on a third-down scramble. His movement looked much better this week as if he got a Lazarus Pit to celebrate his 42nd birthday.

Then again, the Baltimore defense has been known to help quarterbacks perk up as Rodgers passed for a season-high 284 yards while taking no sacks. He also had no running game as the Steelers finished with 15 carries for 34 yards for him. Meanwhile, the Ravens rushed for 217 yards in the loss, producing this hilarious statistic about losing a game with a huge rushing margin:

That’s Steelers vs. Ravens in the 2020s for you. More accurately, that’s the Lamar Jackson era as to this day you still have to question Jackson’s arm and ability in games like this, another big one with first place in the AFC North on the line and the Ravens having a tougher remaining schedule.

Jackson won his last two starts against the Steelers in 2024, but his rest of career numbers and moments have been poor to say the least. In this game, he didn’t break 100 passing yards until the fourth quarter as the Ravens were leaning on the ground game with Derrick Henry and Keaton Mitchell also broke a 55-yard run.

There were some bright moments for Jackson in the fourth quarter, but the Ravens never put it together for a touchdown drive while the Steelers floundered on offense late. There was a go-ahead touchdown to Isaiah Likely that was ruled a drop after Joey Porter Jr. helped knock the ball out before Likely got a third foot down or did a football move. That was a tough call without great clarity from the NFL on what a catch is in 2025.

That drive ended in no points, because after the Likely mistake on first down, the Steelers stopped Henry twice, then Mark Andrews possibly got in the way of a Jackson pass on fourth down intended for DeAndre Hopkins in the back of the end zone with 2:22 left.

But given one more chance with 1:56 left and 74 yards to go, Jackson led a very poor two-minute drill, taking 69 seconds just to move the ball 8 yards. Reaching the Pittsburgh 30 with 9 seconds left, any shot at a Hail Mary was denied when Alex Highsmith sacked Jackson to end the game and give the Steelers a 7-6 record and first place.

The Ravens have struggled to play complementary football all season, and Sunday was no different. Pittsburgh finally won a big game this year without relying on a ton of turnovers on defense. Rodgers was excellent for three quarters, and if Likely wasn’t in a funk with the end zone, it may have been wasted again by the defense.

But the Steelers have been getting the best of this rivalry, especially when the games are at their closest. That’s also why I had full confidence in Pittsburgh still finishing with a winning record, because I knew they’d never get swept by Baltimore, especially not this Baltimore team.

Now we’ll see if they can build on this win and take advantage of a home game with Miami next week. Maybe even get a break with the Bengals possibly sweeping Baltimore on Sunday to create more separation.

But the sportsbooks have finally come around to making the Steelers the favorites (-160 at FanDuel) to win the AFC North over Baltimore (+170) and Cincinnati (+1300). There’s a reason almost every 1-5 team fails to come all the way back to make the playoffs.

The Ravens are just too mistake prone this year. Similar to the Chiefs in that regard, another team in the AFC they can’t seem to beat when they have to.

Bears at Packers: Ben Johnson Was Right Again

Ever since the Bears hired coach Ben Johnson, he has done an incredible job of saying the right things time and time again. He just probably wishes he wasn’t right when he said last week that the 9-3 Bears are winning in spite of their passing game with Caleb Williams.

On Sunday in Green Bay with the No. 1 seed on the line and the lead in the NFC North, Johnson was very prescient as Williams struggled mightily early on while Jordan Love had some key passes down the field for big plays (including third downs) that paced the Packers to numerous leads in a game they never trailed.

But Williams did make some of his best plays late, and even tied the game in the fourth quarter before the Packers marched for a game-winning touchdown. I predicted a 27-20 win by Green Bay, and they were up 28-21 late with Williams driving for what could have been his sixth comeback in the final 2:00 this year as you had to think Johnson probably goes for 2 on the road the way he is from the Dan Campbell school of thought.

But after the run got stuffed on 3rd-and-1, Williams blew a good play call with a bad throw on fourth down and it was intercepted in the end zone to end the game. Just like that, the Bears (9-4) fell from the No. 1 to the No. 7 seed.

These teams will meet again in 12 days, but Williams is going to need to be a lot more efficient if the Bears are going to get a split here.

Bengals at Bills: Mr. Perfect Until He Has to Be

I can say this about most quarterbacks, but Joe Burrow is actually more likeable than his annoying fans make him out to be. Watching him on those shows like Quarterback S2 or Hard Knocks In-Season with the AFC North, you can see he’s a football junkie, a Batman fan, and just wants to win games. This league is also in need of a pocket passer who can still frequently throw for 300 yards and multiple touchdowns without being a play-action merchant.

But where things get annoying with Burrow is the nonstop nicknames and the way the media has shoved him into conversations he doesn’t belong, or pretended that he’s a clutch player. I saw the “Joe Brrr” notification from the NFL app before Sunday’s snow game in Buffalo, and it was just earlier this week where I again pointed out that Burrow and his top wide receiver duo simply don’t win games in the clutch or shootouts despite being the most expensive trio in NFL history.

Burrow also has just one comeback win in the final 8:00 of a game in his career, and Sunday was no different. My other issues with Burrow stem from him being a sack merchant, often getting into trouble by looking for the big play. It should go against his nature as a perfectionist, which I think gets him into trouble in games where things don’t go well. He’ll let it snowball and not recover from a big mistake.

It all happened again on Sunday when Burrow went from playing a really fine game in Buffalo in the snow with four touchdowns on the first six drives. It was like he picked right up where he left off with his success against the Bills in 2022-23.

But one fateful pass from the Buffalo 33 with 5:35 left, leading 28-25, changed everything for the Bengals. Burrow tried to throw a quick pass, did a weird shot-put delivery on it, and Christian Benford was there for the 63-yard pick-six to put the Bills ahead 32-28.

Is Burrow so sick of me pointing out he has one comeback win in the last 8:00 that he tried to create a situation for himself to succeed? Then on the very next play, he got picked again on a battled ball at the line. The Bills took over at the Cincinnati 29, and of course Josh Allen, who got Dalton Kincaid back at a good time, was going to take advantage of the No. 32 defense on a short field by throwing another touchdown on fourth down.

Burrow answered quickly with his fourth touchdown pass to cut it to 39-34 with 2:13 left. That drive is another example of why stats that ignore the scoreboard show Burrow doing well in this situation when it was the two drives before this that mattered more when he had the picks.

But even after his defense sacked Allen to bring up 3rd-and-15, they gave up another 17-yard scramble to Allen, who also took off for a 40-yard touchdown earlier with inexplicably no defender in sight of his path to the end zone.

This was a very winnable game for the Bengals on the road to keep their season alive, but Burrow picked the worst time to make his worst play of the year. He crumbled instead of finishing the game, and given his history, it’s not that surprising.

He’s just not proven to be a closer yet, and this will be his third-straight missed postseason.

I still contend this is the worst Buffalo team since 2019, but if this is an AFC where they don’t have to worry about the Chiefs at all, don’t have to worry about going to Baltimore, and don’t have to worry about these Bengals, then Allen has no excuses left to not get to a Super Bowl.

Letting Drake Maye, Bo Nix, Trevor Lawrence, or C.J. Stroud get there before Allen does would be disastrous to his legacy.

Colts at Jaguars: Indiana Is Cursed in 2025

I was all in on the Jaguars to win this one despite being a 1.5-point home underdog. But you have to see Daniel Jones tear his Achilles on a different leg than the one he had the fractured fibula with. I’m not a doctor, so I can’t comment if that may have led to this the way Tyrese Haliburton’s calf injury led to his Achilles in the NBA Finals, but it’s just been that kind of cursed year for Indiana sports teams. Caitlin Clark also had a season-ending groin injury in a year her Fever had a shot in the playoffs.

The Colts would have had a shot in this AFC if they were healthy, but between Jones going down and Sauce Gardner getting injured shortly after they traded for him, it’s been a brutal stretch for the Colts. From 7-1 to 8-5 and little hope with that tough schedule left.

Worse, they don’t even have a healthy (even if temporarily healthy) Anthony Richardson to go to and see if he can give them anything for the playoff run. They might have to snag Joe Flacco away from the Bengals somehow.

But give credit to the Jaguars. They scored a lot of points on short fields set up by the defense like they’ve been doing this year. I actually think they can get to 12-5 given the schedule, which includes another game with battered Indy.

Crazy how you can go from 7-1 and averaging over 3.0 points per drive to potentially finishing with a losing record and an offense that’s barely top 10, if that, when you consider the Colts have to play the Seahawks, 49ers, Jaguars, and Texans.

Saints at Buccaneers: Tyler Shough Can Move Like That?

With all due respect to Taysom Hill, I don’t think your services are needed anymore in New Orleans. If Tyler Shough can move like that on his two rushing touchdowns in Tampa Bay, then there’s no reason he can’t keep the ball on some of those snaps they give to Hill.

Shough’s second touchdown run also completed the first game-winning drive of his NFL career as the Saints (+8.5) completed the 24-17 upset on the road despite the Bucs having more healthy weapons for Baker Mayfield, who struggled in this one.

But I would still argue Tampa Bay pissed this one away more than the Saints won it. Tampa Bay finished 2-of-7 on fourth down, so when you get 11 drives and end five of them on fourth down (plus one pick), that’s really brutal offense, and it’s not like these were 4th-and-desperate situations late in the game.

I don’t know if Todd Bowles wanted a bow with his points to take them, or if he thought this was the right strategy as these were the five fourth-down failures:

  • 1Q, tied 7-7, 4th-and-1 at NO 45: Bucky Irving lost 7 yards on a run.
  • 2Q, up 10-7, 4th-and-1 at NO 49: Tucker stuffed for no gain on a run.
  • 2Q, up 10-7, 4th-and-15 at NO 47: Mayfield incomplete pass (I guess they weren’t confident in the 65-yard field goal in the conditions)
  • 4Q, tied 17-17, 4th-and-2 at NO 46: Mayfield incomplete pass to Godwin (Saints drove for game-winning touchdown from there).
  • 4Q, down 24-20, 4th-and-4 at TB 26: Mayfield 3-yard pass to Cade Otton for a turnover on downs to end game.

The last one is obvious, the one before halftime makes sense given the field position, I guess. But those three short ones at midfield, out of field goal range, and not in a bad situation on the scoreboard? Might have been able to argue they should punt there and put the rookie QB on a long field.

The Buccaneers and Panthers are both 7-6 with two matchups to come. This thing is far from over in the NFC South if the Bucs are going to keep playing with their food like this.

Commanders at Vikings: For Who, For What?

I’ll never understand what the Commanders were doing with Jayden Daniels in 2025. He had a few injuries as a rookie, but his elbow injury this year was not necessary as it happened after Dan Quinn kept him in a blowout against Seattle far too long.

Then given this team was 3-9 and hadn’t won since Week 5, what’s the point of even playing him again this year? He returned Sunday, he was rusty against a complex defense, and he re-injured his elbow on an interception return play. Now they’ll probably sit him for the rest of the year, but he should have been on the bench in the Seattle blowout and this elbow stuff never should have happened.

You have to protect your best asset. I’m not sure Quinn makes it to 2026 as the defense didn’t get any better despite that being the side they needed to fix desperately. Now the offense is messed up as well.

Seahawks at Falcons: Road Warriors Strike Again

This was actually a 6-6 game at halftime before the Seahawks blew it open in the third quarter with Rashid Shaheed scoring his first Seattle touchdown on a 100-yard kickoff return, then a Bijan Robinson fumble led to the first of two JSN touchdown catches as the rout was on.

The Seahawks (10-3) have been strong on the road all year, and now they get to face the Colts without Daniel Jones before their huge Thursday night rematch with the Rams in Week 16 when they’ll have a chance to take the NFC West lead.

Broncos at Raiders: The Worst Beat of the Year

Given how horrible the Broncos were on offense in the 10-7 win against this team last month, you have to give them credit here. Granted, 7 of the 24 points were a punt return touchdown, but they only had 7 possessions in this game and they gained 81, 41, 47, 91, and 90 yards on the five drives that weren’t limited by the clock and situation at the end of each half. They were sustaining drives with ease.

Some bettors just wish they would have gained 4 more yards on their last snap, because that left enough time for the Raiders, who trailed 24-14 with as little as 0:05 left, get into field goal range after an absurd penalty for trying to stay on top of a receiver who was down extended the game one more down. Then Pete Carroll decided to kick the 46-yard field goal, it was good with 0:00 left, and the Raiders (+7.5) covered the spread in a ridiculous 24-17 final.

I’ve had a pretty good spread week (8-5 ATS), but that was definitely the worst beat of the season on one of these.

Rams at Cardinals: Someone’s Winning in Fantasy on These Cardinal Blowouts

You just know there’s someone out there winning their fantasy league or taking down DFS contests (they still run those, right?) by stacking Jacoby Brissett and Michael Wilson (11/142/2 on Sunday). All that sweet volume and very little real-life NFL value because they either get blown out like they did here to the Rams (45-17), or they come up short in the fourth quarter of a one-score loss.

But this one was the blowout as the Rams led 45-10 at one point. Big bounce-back effort after last week’s loss in Carolina.

Titans at Browns: Shedeur Gets Some Stats, Cam Ward Gets the Win

This Toilet Bowl between the Titans (1-11) and Browns (3-9) actually proved to be far more interesting and nuanced than most Week 14 games. I can’t believe I’m about to write as many words on a Week 14 game between these teams as I am.

It was in theory a matchup of what were supposed to be the top two quarterbacks in the 2025 draft before Shedeur Sanders fell to the fifth round. I knew he’d try to shine in this one against the worst team in football, and to some extent, he did. Sanders finished with 364 passing yards, 3 touchdown passes, 1 touchdown run, 1 interception, and he led a comeback attempt in the final 5:00 that came up a hideous 2-point conversion try short of tying the game.

Meanwhile, Cam Ward only completed 14-of-28 passes for 117 yards, 2 touchdowns, and one pick against that tough Cleveland defense. But Myles Garrett, much like last week against the 49ers, got the lone sack for the defense.

It was also another game where the rest of the team sold out the defense with poor field position as the Titans had touchdown drives of 53, 38, and 8 yards as well as a 6-yard field goal drive without a first down gained.

But late in the game with the Titans up 31-17 thanks to those short fields (and a big day for Tony Pollard with 161 yards and two scores), we saw the shortcomings of the new down 14 strategy that I was just questioning last week. What happens if a team misses both conversions and is still down 2 late? That’s what happened to Cleveland in large part because they called a weird trick play for the final one instead of letting Sanders do something more conventional.

Let’s just note that Cleveland scored that second touchdown with 1:03 left. That left plenty of time to recover an onside kick and win the field goal as I said teams will do in the NFL as  you can’t really time out when you get a touchdown. Then had the Browns made the first 2PC, if you score with 1:03 left, look at how much time that leaves the Titans to go get a game-winning field goal with the new kickoff rules and the improved range for kickers with the new k-balls. The same is true if they had only tied the game at 31.

So again, I understand why teams do the down 14 thing. I just don’t think it’s all that advantageous because of what it does to the game state. For one, I don’t like the prospects of having to convert a do-or-die 2PC at any point in the game, so I’d rather avoid that. Then if you get the first one and you’re down 6, that should trigger the opponent to try better to add to the lead or run out the clock than if they had the cushion of a 7-8 point lead. Then there’s the end-game scenario of taking a 1-point lead quite possibly with plenty of time for the other team to use 4-down football to set up a game-winning field goal.

Yeah, I’m just never going to be a big fan of that, and games like this make it look even less attractive to me. Going to overtime has never actually been less scary than it is now with the new rules there. There’s no real sudden death unless you majorly fuck up like a pick-six or safety on the first drive.

Alas, this was the Toilet Bowl, so it didn’t really matter what these teams did. Just a game with far more points – I believe the total closed at a season-low 33.0 – and intrigue than it ever deserved to have for Week 14.

Also, it’s going to make the Shedeur cult even crazier because he’s delivering the big plays they said he would in the NFL. Just don’t let them hear that some have been filled with YAC, or that he’s only done it against the two worst NFL teams this season (Vegas and Titans) and lost 26-8 to a San Francisco team that was missing its two best defenders.

Cults don’t like pesky facts like that.

Dolphins at Jets: The Streaks Continue

He didn’t have to do much in this one, but Tua Tagovailoa is now 7-0 as a starter against the Jets after the Dolphins quickly opened up a 21-0 lead and held on for the 34-10 win. The Jets were stuck playing UDFA rookie Brady Cook from Missouri after a Tyrod Taylor injury.

With the loss, the Jets (3-10) have been eliminated from the playoffs for the 15th season in a row, the longest active drought in the four major American sports leagues.

Next week: The Week 15 schedule is decent even if the island games are not. The Bucs need to pick things up at home against Atlanta on Thursday night. We’ll see a Baltimore-Cincy rematch from Thanksgiving that’s lost some luster with both losing Sunday. Chargers-Chiefs could be similar if the Chargers lose on Monday night. Bills-Patriots is the big one, and we’ll see if NE can win the AFC East or if Buffalo can try to repeat its 2021 success by coming back to beat them and eventually destroying them in the wild card.

Green Bay vs. Denver is decent for a non-conference game between possible No. 1 seeds. Lions at Rams might be more fun to watch for three quarters though. Colts should get rocked in Seattle. I’ll be writing this early while we’re stuck with Cowboys vs. Vikings on SNF. Steelers usually win at home on MNF, and Miami usually loses on the road under McDaniel to .500+ teams, but we’ll see how that one goes to end the week now that the Steelers will get props this week instead of being in that underdog role.

NFL 2025 Week 14 Predictions: The Day the Whole AFC Went Away Edition

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

It’s a really critical NFL Week 14 in the AFC with games like Colts vs. Jaguars, Bengals vs. Bills, Steelers vs. Ravens, and Texans vs. Chiefs.

It could be the day we circle back to as the day the Colts blew their shot in the AFC South, or the day the Steelers set themselves on the path to their first losing record since 2003, or even the day the Chiefs fell to 6-7 and went on to miss the playoffs.

Or it could jumpstart those teams on a run to the playoffs. We’ll just have to watch and see what happens today.

This Week’s Articles

Who Are the Super Bowl Contenders and Pretenders in This Wild 2025 NFL Season?
2025 NFL Quarterback Rankings Week 14: Joe Burrow Returns Just As Lamar Jackson’s Season Is Falling Apart in AFC North
Scott’s Seven NFL Picks: Week 14

The first link is a 6,000-word review of where the contenders stand right now, and why 2025 has been such a weird year for so many favorites struggling. Lots of talk about regression in turnovers, close games, and easy schedules.

The QB rankings look at Joe Burrow’s odd return, the curious case of Bryce Young, and the Vikings somehow found a quarterback even worse than J.J. McCarthy.

The NFL Week 14 picks have more detailed picks in what I like for Colts-Jags, Steelers-Ravens, Texans-Chiefs, and who I like to throw for more yards between Shedeur Sanders and Cam Ward.

NFL Week 14 Predictions

Those Cowboys tricked me again. Same old Dallas: Allowed 44 points in a must-win type of game, George Pickens played poorly, and now they have to hope for the Eagles to collapse, which is possible this year.

MIA-NYJ: Is Tua really 7-0 against the Jets? Let’s make it 8-0.

SEA-ATL: Seahawks can be tricky with the spread but I think a 7-point win from that defense isn’t asking for much. They should make it hard on Kirk Cousins.

NO-TB: Bucs already beat them decisively on the road and have more weapons available now. Backdoor cover is always a possibility but I think they score enough to win by 10+ and get the sweep.

WAS-MIN: It sounds like Jayden Daniels is back, so I’m going with him to end this losing streak for the Commanders.

IND-JAX: Colts haven’t won in Jacksonville since 2014 and I think that streak lasts another year. Offense is struggling and the Jags can get the turnovers/pressure and have been scoring 25+ every week since the bye.

PIT-BAL: The old hedge pick, you never know with this rivalry that loves 3-point games. It sounds like we are getting Aaron Rodgers vs. Lamar Jackson for the first (last?) time in the NFL, though neither comes in playing that well. Can the Steelers stop Derrick Henry after giving up 249 yards last week? I’d be more inclined to pick the Steelers if they didn’t already look bad in their last two games against the Ravens, who seem to have their QB on the right page to deal with this overpaid, disappointing defense.

TEN-CLE: It doesn’t really say anything about Sanders vs. Ward to me. Just says the Browns have better coaching and a much better defense.

CIN-BUF: I’m hedging again as I think the Bengals had the Bills’ number in 2022-23, though we haven’t seen any other matchups outside of that. But the Bills are usually a home winner. They just rarely make it look pretty this year, and the Bengals have been playing better defense the last few games.

DEN-LV: We had to sit through their garbage 10-7 game on TNF a few weeks back. Hard to imagine the Denver offense makes it look that bad again in the afternoon window.

CHI-GB: Packers are home, Jayden Reed is back, and I think they find a way to win by 7 as I just don’t trust the Chicago passing game enough against a defense that has stepped up to most occasions this year. I know Chicago played them well last year, high stakes with the No. 1 seed up for grabs, and GB has been bad at covering spreads like this. But something just tells me GB 27-20.

LAR-ARI: Cardinals have played a lot of teams tough before losing. But I think the Rams roll and show last week was just a blip.

HOU-KC: I believe after Super Bowl 59 I said the next time the Chiefs had to face an elite defense without multiple OL starters, I can’t trust them to win anymore. Here we are, season likely on the line, and they get the No. 1 Houston defense in a game where they’ll be down 3 OL starters, including both tackles. That’s brutal timing, and the Texans are playing well too as a team. Chiefs play much better at home on defense which should be the key to grinding this one out. But Houston has held all but two teams under 21 points, so it’s just a really hard defense to score on and I could already see Nico Collins converting some 3rd-and-12 catch to ice the clock in a 20-17 final for the Texans. Prove me wrong, KC.

PHI-LAC: Going with the Eagles to end their 2-game slide. I still don’t trust the Chargers in games like this and Herbert is only a week removed from surgery. Think he panics to avoid a hit and gets picked.

NFL 2025 Week 5 Predictions: Tiny Spread Edition

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

We’ve already made it to Week 5 this NFL season as September is in the books. The first game of October was pretty good as I certainly didn’t think the shorthanded 49ers would beat the Rams like that, but these 49ers look different, winning almost every close game and doing it 60% of the time with Mac Jones at QB. Crazy stuff and the best argument yet for Kyle Shanahan’s system working.

In fact, I wrote about it after the game how he could go on to win his first Coach of the Year award if he wins this tough NFC West, but don’t sleep on the Seahawks.

This Week’s Articles

2025 NFL Quarterback Rankings Week 5: Patrick Mahomes Outduels Lamar Jackson Again and the Wild Start to the Jaxson Dart Era
2025 NFL Award Races Through the First Quarter: Are We Headed Towards Josh Allen vs. Patrick Mahomes for MVP?
Scott’s Seven NFL Picks: Week 5

I had my first look at the NFL award races where I changed three picks I made a month ago, including MVP after Joe Burrow was knocked out in Week 2. Not that I ever trusted him to win it on merit. I was betting on how the voters would play it.

As for the Week 5 picks, I like Travis Kelce in Jacksonville a day after his birthday, I really like the Commanders-Chargers game to be a good one, and I think the Bills take care of the Patriots on Sunday night. I’m also teasing the under in London, and for the winless Jets and Saints to show up.

NFL Week 5 Predictions

Tough loss for the Rams to fall behind in the division like that. Certainly had their chances, and I agree 100% with going for it on 4th-and-1 in overtime. If you kick the FG, you trigger sudden death and may never see the ball again. Win is more valuable than the tie there obviously. And maybe the biggest reason is I simply don’t trust that FG unit for the Rams right now with all these blocks.

We actually have four games with a 1.5-point spread this Sunday. That’s a lot as there were only five such games in Weeks 1-4 this season. If you go back to 2011, the team favored by 1.5 covers just over 53% of the time, but it’s usually better when the road team is the one favored (57.3%) like we have in 3 games this Sunday.

But I’ve really mixed it up. I think Baltimore gets the win over Houston even without Lamar Jackson and some key defenders, because I just don’t believe in the Houston offense in this particular matchup. I think the Ravens simplify things on both sides of the ball and lean on Derrick Henry more to get that win at home. But it is unbelievable to see a spread move 11 points after a QB was announced as doubtful.

I’m not sure what to make of Carolina other than that’s not a good team. Neither is Miami, but I just think the Dolphins could build on Monday night’s win and get another here, even without Tyreek Hill.

Then I did indeed go with the Saints and Jets getting their first wins. I think the Saints catch a break with Malik Nabers out as I’m not sure where the passing game is coming from with New York. I also think the Jets winning and Dallas scoring under 20.5 would be a nice play as I keep using that stat about Justin Fields going 0-25 when the opponent scores more than 20. So, if he’s going to win a game for the Jets, it’s likely going to come on a great defensive game, and we’ve already seen Dallas have two scoreless halves on the road and CeeDee Lamb is still out.

Of course, Fields could win a higher-scoring game for the first time in his career, so maybe the best pick is just to take the Jets to win that game. The Cowboys are certainly not above losing this one.

As for these other games, I think the Eagles perk up a little on offense, A.J. Brown still won’t be happy given it’s Denver, and the defense helps to cover the spread on a “Bo Picks” kind of day.

I think Chargers vs. Commanders is the Sunday game I’d most like to watch in full. I think the Chargers pull it out by one possession at home. I’m betting on Ladd McConkey to do well this week after taking a backseat the first month to Allen and QJ.

Tough call on TB-SEA this week. I’d probably back the home team in either case, so it’s Seattle for me with that defense as the Bucs still aren’t back to full health.

I think the Bills win by 8-to-14 points on Sunday night to quiet some of this Drake Maye/Patriots hype that’s building. I’d say beating up on the Dolphins and Panthers isn’t impressive, but it’s not like the Bills can point to a tough schedule this year either.

I wrote about Chiefs-Jaguars here already, but I think the Chiefs take care of business and cover.

2025 NFL Stat Oddity: Week 3

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What are two things I don’t like to see have a big impact on NFL games? The randomness of fumble recoveries and special teams making an impact. I can already see this season is going to be tough as those things have been so much of the story already with Derrick Henry’s Week 1 fumble in Buffalo and the fates of some field goals on Sunday for the Eagles and Packers already dictating things in the NFC race.

Sunday was just a wild day in the NFL as we basically had seven games where a team won comfortably (usually scoring 30+ points). Then we had seven other games that were as close as could be at the end with a lot of low-scoring finals, and it tied the record for most games in a week (seven) with the winning points scored in the final 3:00. That’s despite there only being 8 games total this week (MNF pending) with a comeback opportunity.

But what a day if you like seeing balls knocked loose and field goal units getting destroyed for blocks. The latter is kind of cool and something we started seeing more last year with a few games like Broncos-Chiefs and Packers-Bears having some notable blocks at the end. I’m probably forgetting a big one too.

It’s at the point where a blocked field goal feels far more realistic than recovering an onside kick. Maybe that’s a good thing.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Rams at Eagles: Game of the Week

This was a game I circled after the way the Rams gave the Eagles all they could handle in the divisional round. That game, along with some roster improvements, is why I thought the Rams were the best Super Bowl pick in the NFC this summer. Then those stories about Matthew Stafford’s back started coming out, and I got scared off.

Then when you see the Rams take a 26-7 lead in Philly with Davante Adams catching a long touchdown (not OPI; they were arm wrestling before it), the pass rush owning Jalen Hurts, the run defense containing Barkley, and the Rams running wild on the Eagles’ defense, you think maybe Super Bowl was the right call all along.

But then the collapse started almost immediately in the third quarter after it was 26-7. You can kind of see it coming on offense as Stafford just didn’t bring his A game for this one and they got that short field touchdown. But the defense had a complete turnaround after crushing this matchup before the Eagles finally decided to play like a 21st-century offense and use those highly-talented wide receivers down the field.

Hurts hit back-to-back plays for over 30 yards, gaining more yards than the Eagles had to that point on each play. Stafford took a sack on a 3rd-and-2 at the Philly 49, and McVay decided to punt like a fraidy cat. The Eagles turned that into an 87-yard touchdown drive with A.J. Brown making his first of the year to make it 26-21 going to the fourth quarter.

The Rams went for it this time on 4th-and-1 at the Philly 46, but Kyren Williams was stuffed. Then the Eagles went 4-and-out, and that 4th-and-7 incompletion was ill-advised if you ask me. Pin them deep as that offense was struggling now.

But starting at the 50, the Rams couldn’t make the Eagles pay for it. I don’t disagree with going for a 36-yard field goal on 4th-and-2. There’s some value to going up 8 points, since you know they can only tie you at best. But the kick was blocked with 8:42 left by Jalen Carter.

That’s when the Eagles drove 91 yards with five conversions on third or fourth down, and none of them even involved the Tush Push that the Eagles again got away with a big false start on before their first touchdown drive of the game. But the Rams couldn’t get it done on 4th-and-goal defensively, and DeVonta Smith caught the go-ahead touchdown with 1:48 left.

The only good news is the Rams stopped the 2-point conversion pass, so it was only a 27-26 game. That means a field goal wins it for the Rams, and Stafford has done this many times over. He got into range with Puka Nacua, then the running game did well enough to set up a 44-yard field goal as the final snap. That’s plenty of confidence to make that kick.

Except Jordan Davis broke through for the block this time, and he even returned it for a game-closing touchdown to win 33-26, denying us Rams +3.5 bettors an easy win with a beat as bad as any I can think of.

That also has major implications on the NFC race, making it more likely the rematch is in Philly again if there is one. The Rams also may have woken up the Philly offense from its 10-quarter slumber of forgetting how to play modern offense. Just an all-around disastrous day for the Rams who did so many things right early, but too many things wrong after it was 26-7.

Yeah, circle this one too. It’s another major part of the butterfly effect in the NFC this year. But I do think it’s an annoying double standard that people are already trying to paint the Eagles as anything but the 2024 Chiefs, who people claimed were lucky and got bailed out by the refs.

Meanwhile, the 2025 Eagles are getting called out weekly for false starts on the Tush Push and they would have had a +8 scoring differential in starting 3-0 had they not padded the number with the last return touchdown on the block.

I’d say this team is running out of steam going into the game against the team that kicked their ass last year (Tampa Bay), but the Bucs are also barely winning games this year at 3-0.

That just seems to be a consistent theme about winning so much in the NFL. Maybe we shouldn’t knock it so much as it sure beats the alternative of losing games despite good stats.

Broncos at Chargers: Best in the West?

The AFC West battle lived up to the hype as this is the kind of game you’d usually see the Chargers lose in the past. Sure, there were some Chargering moments as Najee Harris tore his Achilles on a play-action pass run fake, which was unfortunate to see. Justin Herbert had a deflected pick in scoring territory. The Broncos got away with a lucky deflected completion from Bo Nix in a big spot. J.K. Dobbins broke a 41-yard run and scored a touchdown against his former team, then the Chargers fumbled the ensuing kickoff and fortunately held Denver to a field goal instead of falling behind 21-10.

But much like last week in Indy, the Broncos didn’t finish the job in the fourth quarter on defense, and the offense was just off on too many key plays. They also had very costly penalties again this week with offensive offsides negating a first down halfway through the final quarter, then a face mask killed the drive by putting them into 2nd-and-20. Just dumb things like that.

Herbert was only 28-of-47 passing and took 5 sacks, but he still threw for 300 yards and made a great touchdown pass to Keenan Allen from 20 yards out to tie the game at 20 with 2:37 left. Again, it’s crazy that the league just let Allen go back to the Chargers like he never left. He looks good.

Denver going three-and-out after the Allen touchdown was huge. Can’t do that on such an uninspired drive that didn’t even last 50 seconds. Herbert had no issues leading the offense down the field against what’s supposed to be this great Denver defense, and Dicker the Kicker was true from 43 yards out to win in 23-20.

It’s the second week in a row the Broncos lost on the final snap of the game with the offense never registering a possession in the fourth quarter while trailing. Bad way to start 1-2, and doubly bad when you consider the Chargers are 3-0 in the AFC West now.

Chiefs at Giants: People Are Saying It’s the Ugliest 13-Point Win of All Time

Leave it up to the Chiefs to get a 22-9 road win in wire-to-wire fashion and still come away feeling like there’s so many problems. But that’s what happens when you set a high standard for years.

Still, isn’t it a hell of a lot better to win ugly than to lose a game? The Chiefs finally ended their 3-game losing slide against an opponent that isn’t going anywhere, a break from what was likely the first case in NFL history of a team playing 8 straight games against playoff opponents going back to last year.

Alas, there are some legitimate problems that persist like Jawaan Taylor’s drive-killing penalties at right tackle, Isiah Pacheco’s horrible field vision, Travis Kelce’s growing temper with mistakes, and a lot of bad discipline with too many dumb penalties. Oh, and Harrison Butker cost them 4 points by missing short, easy kicks for a kicker making that much money.

The good news is the Chiefs got two takeaways as Russell Wilson may have just lost another starting job with a terrible performance one week after he had 450 yards in Dallas. I don’t see how you don’t just go to rookie Jaxson Dart as the starter next week, and I don’t understand what the plan was last night with Dart only coming into the game for a few snaps to hand off and not throw any passes. Kill that noise. Just start him.

The other good news is Patrick Mahomes only had to scramble a couple of times as the Chiefs finally gave him 103 yards of rushing support. Tyquan Thornton also looks like their best wide receiver (career-high 71 yards and another touchdown; inches away from two scores) even though he’s supposed to be WR5 on the depth chart at best. He should play a lot of snaps even when Xavier Worthy and Rashee Rice are back as he’s basically able to do the MVS role and give them some size and speed down the field.

A much tougher test awaits next week with Baltimore. But even if this team falls to 1-3, I think the way the defense has picked things up after that terrible Brazil performance and the reinforcements on the way at receiver still make this team a formidable one that can contend with anyone. What other quarterback is ranking fifth in QBR with this cast as is?

Just have to cut down on these mistakes, and I really wish Andy Reid would bench Taylor to prove a point. Why pay Jaylon Moore that much money to ride the bench?

Steelers at Patriots: 2008 Vibes

I’m still not sure the Steelers are playing all that well as a team. But seasons where they can handle New England usually go well for them. It was the turnovers forced by the defense in this one that saved the day given the offense only had 203 yards as the running game still struggled and no receiver had 35 yards. The Steelers were also getting a lot of favorable calls from the refs early for some reason.

Would have liked this kind of officiating and turnover luck in Foxboro years ago when Roethlisberger was the quarterback.

But the Patriots turned it over 5 times, their most since 5 turnovers in 2008 in a 33-10 loss to the Steelers during the Matt Cassel year. Weather at least played a factor that day. This time, the Patriots just made some poor decisions with the ball with Drake Maye’s pick before halftime in the end zone, then Rhamondre Stevenson put the ball on the ground twice as he so often does in big spots. Guy is seriously one of the worst-timed fumblers I’ve ever seen as he’s cost them several close games over the years with this shit.

But the Steelers stepped up big in the fourth quarter this week by getting a strip-sack of Maye in a tied game, then Rodgers threw probably his best pass for a 17-yard touchdown to Calvin Austin to take a 21-14 lead.

The Patriots could have answered, but Demario Douglas ended up giving up the first down with his RAC on 4th-and-1, getting tackled short of the line. The second time this year a good tackle by the Steelers on fourth down secured a win. They’re still giving up too many easy completions, but you’ll always take the turnover parade.

That’s 38 game-winning drives for Rodgers, who is in 13th place in that stat now. We’ll see if he can join the group of 40 before he finishes his career. Playing with this Pittsburgh team, it looks like the opportunities are going to be there.

Bengals at Vikings: Have a Day, Isaiah Rodgers

So much for that battle between Ja’Marr Chase and Justin Jefferson to see who is WR1 and can lift up their backup quarterback to the win. Well, the answer was clearly Justin Jefferson as he had 75 yards and didn’t lose a fumble like Chase did on an all-time bad ball security day for Cincinnati.

But it was an all-time great game by Minnesota corner Isaiah Rodgers. Seriously, if this happened in a playoff game, it’d be considered the greatest performance ever by a single defender. He had a pick-six, a forced fumble and fumble return touchdown, and he also had a second fumble forced and two passes defensed.

The craziest part? Rodgers did this all by halftime as the Bengals turned it over 5 times on the day in a real road mess. I hope people don’t just chalk this up to Joe Burrow being out. The Bengals ran the ball so poorly and five players fumbled once in what was a dreadful performance all around.

Carson Wentz had it on easy street and it didn’t matter that this was his first start with his sixth team in the last six seasons. His inexperience with Minnesota didn’t mean a lick when his defense came to play like this.

Colts at Titans: …Three Times Is a Pattern

Before Monday night, let’s just acknowledge and appreciate the craziness that is Daniel Jones leading the most effective offense in the league right now through three games. His QBR (85.7) would be the third highest in a season since 2006.

He’ll come back to Earth eventually, but three games is a pretty historic run for nearly scoring on all of your drives. Jones was making plays Sunday in Tennessee that I swear were always sacks with him in New York. It’s been crazy to watch.

As for the Titans, it’s not good Cam Ward started the game with a late throw that was returned for an easy pick-six. Just started the day on the wrong foot and it was an uphill battle from there as the Colts poured on 41 points.

Out of all the 3-0 teams, you could make the case that the Colts have played the best football quarter to quarter of them all so far. I don’t think even the most optimistic fan would have predicted that.

Texans at Jaguars: Down in a (0-3) Hole

I think one of my best NFL team previews this summer was the Houston Texans, a team I picked to finish under 9.5 wins and miss the playoffs. My worry was they had way too many new pieces on offense for a coordinator with no experience (Nick Caley), and the only thing they could hang their hat on was C.J. Stroud throwing to Nico Collins.

Well, they’re 0-3 and doing it in historic fashion:

On Sunday in Jacksonville, even the Stroud-to-Collins combo was feast or famine. Collins got behind the defense for a 50-yard touchdown to tie the game at 10. But after the Jaguars foolishly turned the ball over on downs at midfield, Collins fumbled the ball near the red zone on a catch on the ensuing drive.

Trevor Lawrence has really struggled to get his best receivers going this year. But Brian Thomas Jr. picked a good spot to make a big 46-yard catch and run. The Texans, perhaps learning from last week’s ending against Tampa, seemingly let Travis Etienne score a 10-yard touchdown run to take a 17-10 lead and ensure the Texans get the ball back with 1:42 and two timeouts left. Bold strategy.

Stroud drove the Texans to the Jacksonville 28, but with the clock a factor, he forced a deep one and it was intercepted to end the game and drop Houston to 0-3, which doesn’t look like a hole they can climb out of like they actually did back in 2018 to make the playoffs.

Packers at Browns: Not in Love

What a devastating loss for the Packers, and you have to put it on their offense as the defense only allowed 221 yards. But to blow a 10-0 lead this late is just inexcusable. Jordan Love made a terrible interception in a 10-3 game that Cleveland was able to turn into a 4-yard touchdown drive to tie the game.

Then in a true “ball don’t lie” moment, the Packers got away with a Josh Jacobs fumble because they said there wasn’t clear video of a recovery. The Packers kept it on the ground, but Brandon McManus was blocked on his 43-yard field goal with 21 seconds left. That was just enough time for Joe Flacco to set up his kicker, Szmyt, for a 55-yard walk-off field goal. This is the kicker who missed an extra-point sized kick to lose the Week 1 game to Cincinnati, but he was good here for probably the biggest upset of the season so far.

I liked the Browns holding Josh Jacobs under in yards, but I didn’t expect 16 carries for 30 yards. You can’t run on these Browns, and with the way Travis Hunter isn’t popping much for Jacksonville, maybe trading down and taking Mason Graham, who was a beast in this game, wasn’t such a bad move after all for Cleveland.

But what a brutal few minutes for Green Bay when 3-0 was in sight with a field goal, and it looked like the Rams were going to beat the Eagles. But those field goals went different ways and now the Packers look like a work in progress again as they try to get this offense going with rookie Matthew Golden and without Jayden Reed (collarbone).

More evidence it is hard to lose your de-facto WR1 and try to replace him with a rookie.

Cardinals at 49ers: You Lost to One-Legged Mac Jones?

Alright, I’m just going to say it. Kyler Murray’s laissez-faire brand of leadership combined with Marvin Harrison Jr’s. quiet, reserved attitude much like his father had is a terrible combination for NFL success. When you’re dropping passes like this (along with one in the end zone), you need someone to toughen you up. To demand more from you and your talent. And I just can’t imagine Kyler doing that with him.

The Cardinals nearly won this game in inexplicable fashion. Murray himself made a horrible play where he almost did intentional grounding in the end zone, which would have been a safety to give the 49ers the lead. Instead, the 49ers got called for a penalty in the end zone, giving Arizona a 15-13 lead on a safety. Crazy stuff.

But the Cardinals couldn’t run out the clock, which is so crucial in a 2-point game, and the 49ers got the ball back. Mac Jones is one of the worst QBs in the clutch in NFL history. Before Sunday, he was 3-17 at 4QC/GWD opportunities with plenty of turnovers in those spots.

Even in this game, he was picked in scoring territory when it was tied with 5:08 left. That was actually before the safety drive. But after getting yet another chance with 1:46 left, Jones delivered with Kendrick Bourne, a familiar face from their New England days together, making big catches on the drive. Chrisitan McCaffrey took a short pass 20 yards and that was enough to set up new kicker Eddy Pineiro for a 35-yard game-winning field goal with no time left.

You know, the kick Jake Moody probably misses. But Pineiro made it and the 49ers won 16-15 the exact kind of game they lost last year.

But I would have serious concerns about Harrison Jr. in this offense. For someone who went so high in the draft, he was easily outplayed by Ricky Pearsall (8 catches for 117 yards) on the other side, to say nothing of the other 2024 wideouts who keep producing more.

Cowboys at Bears: Oof, That D (That’s What She Said)

It says a lot about where the pass rush is for Dallas that Caleb Williams, in his 20th NFL game, did not get sacked for the first time. He also threw for 298 yards and 4 touchdowns as Ben Johnson had things cooking as the offense unleashed rookie Luther Burden, who came down with a 65-yard touchdown on a deep flea-flicker pass on his way to 101 yards.

I hate to agree with Tom Brady, but he was right on the broadcast that the Cowboys are better suited this year to deal with a CeeDee Lamb injury, which of course happened early in the game as I had him as a top touchdown scorer pick this week. Go figure, he just had to play the first snap of the second quarter before leaving for good as he couldn’t go to make sure I didn’t get any bet protection on FanDuel. Almost like it was done on purpose cause I’m not sure he played any of the final seven snaps of the first quarter when Dallas was driving. Ugh.

But this was Dak’s worst game of the season as the Cowboys were scoreless after their fourth drive and he had one pick that was pretty poor and on him.

This seems like the M.O. for Dallas this year. Dak throwing a ton to try to keep up with his defense getting shredded. This is what Jerry Jones voluntarily made possible with the Parsons trade.

But hey, good job on holding the Chicago running game to 3.0 yards per carry. That at least helped them stay under 35 points.

Saints at Seahawks: Over Right Away

Jesus Christ, I think it was over within 11 minutes. The Saints did a good job the first two weeks of challenging the Cardinals and 49ers, but they had no answers for the NFC West team from Seattle. Not when you give up a 95-yard punt return touchdown then a short field on a punt block, which snapped the second-longest streak in modern NFL history without a punt block as the Saints had gone 233 games.

Jets at Buccaneers: Baker’s Bunch Does It Again

Well, Tyrod Taylor completed 23 more passes than Justin Fields did last week, and the Jets actually erased a 17-point deficit in the fourth quarter to take a stunning 27-26 lead after blocking a field goal and returning it for a touchdown with 1:49 left.

But that’s too much time for Baker Mayfield this season. Not one known for comebacks, he’s 3-0 at pulling off these last-minute drives this season. In fact, the 2025 Bucs are the first team to score the game-winning points in the final 60 seconds of its first three games to start a season. Crazy stuff.

Emeka Egbuka had another brilliant catch on the game-winning drive and deserves to be the favorite for OROY. The Bucs may have made this one closer than it needed to be, but you have to give them props for winning with a lot of offensive line injuries.

Meanwhile, the Jets have now blown 8 fourth-quarter leads over the last 17 games. It’s like Robert Saleh never left.

Falcons at Panthers: Just Doom

Man, I guess I fvcked up with that NFC South pick, huh? Maybe it’s different if they won in Week 1 against Tampa, but I have no idea how you go from a 22-6 win in Minnesota – then look what that team did Sunday – to getting blanked 30-0 to lowly Carolina. Sure, the Falcons lost to Bryce Young in overtime to end 2024, but that was a 44-38 game.

But 30-0? Okay, your new kicker missed from 49 and 55, so he’s probably not the upgrade over Younghoe Koo you thought he was, and that explains the shutout. But still, 30-6? Okay, Penix made a brutal pass that was late and went for a pick-six in the third quarter. But 23-6 in Carolina?

That’s a hope-crushing loss for Atlanta that this is going to be another wasted season. It’s not like Young was making throws out of his ass. He threw for 121 yards. It’s not like the running defense got eviscerated either. Just a no-show for the offense and that’s really disappointing as that unit is supposed to do some leading in Atlanta.

But it doesn’t look like it’s working out well so far. Remember, the defense stole the show in Minnesota last week.

Raiders at Commanders: No Jayden, No Problem

I almost forgot this game happened. So, I thought Geno Smith would play much better than Monday night, which he obviously did, and the Raiders would win as the Commanders would miss Jayden Daniels. But Marcus Mariota scored the first touchdown, had an efficient day, they broke some big plays, and it was no issue in a 41-24 win.

If you’re the Raiders, you kinda knew your defense was going to be ass outside of Maxx Crosby. But I think there needs to be some real concern with this offensive line as the run blocking just doesn’t exist for Ashton Jeanty, and Geno took 5 sacks. He’s not going to make it the full season at this rate.

Next week: Seattle-Arizona on TNF sounds like another night of doing work on the computer while I watch on my phone. I thought for months I’d be watching T.J. Watt chase J.J. McCarthy around in Ireland, but they might actually be better off with Carson Wentz. Tough game. Looks like another week where the Eagles have the best 1:00 game in Tampa Bay, a place they’ve struggled. I think Colts-Rams is a really nice backseat to Ravens-Chiefs in the late window. Packers-Cowboys has potential on SNF if Dak plays well. Monday night overlapped doubleheader is weak with Jets-Dolphins 0-4 battle and Bengals (without Joe Burrow) in Denver (1-2). Ho-hum.

2025 NFL Predictions

2025 NFL Predictions
~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

I’m starting my 15th season covering the NFL by running late in trying to push this out before kickoff in Philadelphia. As I end up doing more offseason articles each year, the seven months of repeating certain things gets tiresome, and you just want to get the new season started.

I usually come up with an overall theme for these seasons, but I don’t really have one for 2025. Just sit back and enjoy the ride. That’s the theme. So much about the world has gone or is going to shit, that you have to find comfort in the little things that make you happy.

Even though I had a 2024 prediction that Josh Allen would win MVP and the Chiefs would lose the Super Bowl in their three-peat bid, it wasn’t always that fun to watch unfold. I think I let too many ridiculous people on Twitter get to me about these topics, including that horseshit about the refs helping the Chiefs win games. It was also dark times late in the season with my uncle and a close family friend dying two months apart. Stress eating got the best of me.

But as soon as that Super Bowl blowout ended, I felt this huge relief. I slept like a baby that week, I started shedding pounds again, and now I’ve spent the summer walking around the house having to hold my shorts up as nothing wants to fit anymore. I’m at my lowest weight since high school.

The three-peat? Like Zed, it’s dead. If the Eagles repeat, what do I care? We already turned the MVP into a charity case for Allen, so what’s it matter if they do it for Joe Burrow next? I’ll make the futures bet today to take advantage of that nonsense. What if the Ravens or Bills finally break through and make the Super Bowl? GOOD. I’m sick and tired of writing every offseason about the Five-Year Rule and when they’re going to get over the hump. I wish one of them would just do it already (hint hint), and you know which one I’d prefer at this point – shocking as it is.

Spending three hours on Sundays watching Aaron Rodgers quarterback my childhood team should be a hoot. The quarterback I perfectly labeled 14 years ago (just a few months into my writing career) a front-runner extraordinaire who would be lucky to win another Super Bowl. I’m so numb to the Steelers having a non-losing record and doing squat in the playoffs that nothing could phase me this year.

I’m just going to try to enjoy it, and part of that has already started by blocking some of the most annoying people I’ve come across on Twitter in 14 years. Time is precious, and arguing with these people is a waste of it. Shout out to #AlwaysWrongGuy for being a punching bag I still enjoy getting my hits into. But those Brdy cultists – they know who they are – can login to their burners because I’m in a blocking mood right now.

It took me a long time to come up with my Super Bowl pick this year. I actually dropped a futures bet on it around August 12 on BetRivers, and the odds have already gone from +4575 to +3000. Almost like a certain trade made that happen.

But last year, I ended a 3-year drought of getting all the Super Bowl teams wrong. I even finally got the right game outcome with the Chiefs losing, but it was Green Bay winning. Whoops. Won’t make that mistake again (hint hint).

Right Super Bowl team, Wrong Super Bowl outcome.

This week at 365Scores, I already dropped my full NFL 2025 award predictions, and just this morning, I published my full predictions and Super Bowl LX pick. Read those for more detail than I’m going to provide here.

But I still have a standard I hold myself to, and I wouldn’t be meeting it if I didn’t make this the only place I post my final thoughts and final record predictions for all 32 teams along with my narrative for the postseason.

But if you need more detail about your team or curious about other teams – I recommend the Chiefs, Ravens, Packers, Vikings, Bills, Eagles, and Commanders – then be sure to click the links and read those previews at 365Scores. They’re all 2,500-6,500 words each.

NFC EAST

AFC EAST

NFC SOUTH

AFC SOUTH

NFC NORTH

NFC WEST

AFC WEST

Note: Some of the over/under picks in these articles were subject to change as I only made my final record predictions Thursday morning after going through the schedule. My final, official picks are as presented below.

AFC WEST

1. Kansas City Chiefs (12-5)

I’ve shown how the 2024 Chiefs were a copy of 2020, right down to winning a record number of close games, the starters losing one time going into the Super Bowl, beating Buffalo in the AFC-CG, and playing musical chairs with their OL before getting dominated in the Super Bowl.

Does that mean 2021 Chiefs = 2025 Chiefs? A 3-4 start followed by a hot finish to get to 12-5 and another AFC-CG. I do think the schedule is ridiculously frontloaded with four major Super Bowl contenders in the first six games, the games they’ll have to play without Rashee Rice, who should take over as the leading receiver this year.

But it’s the Chiefs. You know they’re going to be in the mix late in the year, and the offense should perk up with Josh Simmons at left tackle. The defense may take a step back, and that could be the difference in January too. But it’s still up to a Baltimore or Buffalo to make the decisive play in the playoffs and eliminate this team.

Maybe even before the AFC-CG this year…They can’t go to every Super Bowl, right?

2. Denver Broncos (11-6)

I’m sold on Bo Nix having a legit shot to be a problem (positively) under Sean Payton as he’s giving him a talented, balanced roster the likes of which he almost never did for Drew Brees all those years. That’s a shame.

But Nix played well against the Chiefs and would have won in Arrowhead if not for a blocked 35-yard field goal. I still have the Chiefs winning the division, but an 11-6 finish for Denver is going to be good enough for a No. 5 seed most likely.

3. Los Angeles Chargers (9-8)

I think the Chargers can beat the Chiefs in Brazil and that might be the highlight of their season. I still see them losing pivotal games for tie-breakers like Week 10 against the Steelers (SNF) and Week 18 in Denver. I love Ladd McConkey but still not a fan of the other receivers around Justin Herbert, who needs to be more aggressive and assertive this year. No one cares about those 3 INTs if you throw 4 in a playoff game.

But I think the Rashawn Slater injury is a big one as it’s going to hurt the potential the running game had with Joe Alt sliding to LT.

4. Las Vegas Raiders (6-11)

They should be more competitive and fun to watch with Pete Carroll, Geno Smith, Chip Kelly, and Ashton Jeanty in town. But it’s a numbers game and the other three AFC West teams are just better. Carroll hasn’t led a top 10 D since 2016, and there were diminishing returns with him and Geno in Seattle.

NFC WEST

1. San Francisco 49ers (11-6)

The 49ers have this incredible streak where they’ve gone 22 straight seasons (since 2003) where they’ve either missed the playoffs with a non-losing record (15 times) or they got to the NFC-CG or better (7 times).

I think that streak can continue as all 4 teams are capable of winning this NFC West. But I’m still siding with the 49ers as they can’t be more injured than 2024 (try as they might), I believe in Brock Purdy, and the tiebreaker for me is they play a last-place schedule.

What does that mean in comparison to the Rams’ 1st-place schedule? It means the 49ers get to play the Browns, Giants, and Bears while the Rams have to play the Ravens, Eagles, and Lions.

That’ll do, pig.

2. Los Angeles Rams (10-7)

When I wrote the Rams preview early on I was really hyped about this team, thinking it can match the Eagles’ feat (2-1 in the Super Bowl over the last 8 years). You take Sean McVay and Stafford, add Davante Adams, and the front seven had 16 sacks in the playoffs and Jared Verse could ascend to the next tier in Year 2. A Super Bowl is realistic.

Then Stafford’s disc issue came up, he’s 37, and you get worried. Throw in that schedule difference I just talked about with the 49ers getting a huge boost, and I cautiously slide the Rams into second place with 10 wins.

3. Arizona Cardinals (8-9)

I wanted to find another win for this team but ended up giving them the same record as last year. Honestly, the schedule works out to where it should be a good start before the inevitable Kyler Murray nosedive late in the year. Is there a new Call of Duty coming out? That’d just cement missing the playoffs for me.

I do like the prospects of Marvin Harrison Jr. reminding us why he was WR1 in a loaded WR draft though.

4. Seattle Seahawks (7-10)

My gut says Sam Darnold plays better than he did in 2018-23 but noticeably worse than last year with the Vikings. Pretty fair. He has a worse situation all around and the Seahawks have downgraded at wide receiver.

AFC EAST

1. Buffalo Bills (13-4)

The Bills really have to take advantage of a schedule that worked out to where they get to face the Ravens, Chiefs, Eagles, Bengals, and Buccaneers in Buffalo where they were 10-0 last year. Great path to a No. 1 seed, which I think they get.

But are they really that much better this year? They added some ex-Chargers (Josh Palmer, Joey Bosa), and beyond trying to get better play out of Keon Coleman and Dalton Kincaid, they’re hoping they can make Tre’Davious White a thing again in 2025. That’s not an impressive haul for the eternal bridesmaid of the AFC.

And don’t forget the turnover regression I’ve covered over and over. In fact, don’t be surprised if the Bills do something Sunday night against Baltimore than they never did in 2024 – lose a fumble by someone other than Josh Allen.

2. New England Patriots (8-9)

I think this team surprised people by being favored in roughly 11 games when the earliest lines came out. The schedule is favorable, Stefon Diggs should help, but I’m going to be cautious as I need to see Drake Maye succeed in various ways. Remember, he never finished a start he won where the Patriots allowed more than 3 points last year.

3. New York Jets (5-12)

My issue with Robert Saleh when the Jets hired him was that he basically had one good year as a defensive coordinator in SF. Aaron Glenn is the same way now from Detroit. But the bigger issue is pairing him with Justin Fields, a quarterback who is 0-22 when his opponent scores more than 20 points and 2-18 at 4QC opportunities.

He is not a franchise quarterback.

4. Miami Dolphins (4-13)

They probably won’t be this bad, but they were the sacrifice I was constantly willing to make to make sure the other 31 teams had the records they did. Hell, the sportsbooks have Mike McDaniel with better than even odds to be the first coach fired just like Miami did to Tony Sparano and Joe Philbin early in their fourth seasons.

On the bright side, just another day closer to death, Mike.

NFC EAST

1. Philadelphia Eagles (13-4)

They absolutely have a shot to repeat by retaining their super talented offensive core and having a ton of young defenders that can be solid to great. However, I still think Saquon Barkley’s long runs dry up this year and the passing game has to do more. The defense will miss the veterans and depth they lost too. But still a team that can get it done and end that absurd streak of no repeat winner in the NFC East since 2004.

Circle the Week 10 game in Green Bay. Potential No. 1 seed battle on MNF.

2. Washington Commanders (10-7)

I think Jayden Daniels is the next big thing at QB, but I was cautious to not go overboard after it didn’t work with C.J. Stroud and Houston last year. But you can see a path to how Daniels could ascend to MVP and win the NFC East and get to the Super Bowl in Year 2 a la 1984 Dan Marino, 2005 Ben Roethlisberger, and 2013 Russell Wilson.

Still, I can’t help but acknowledge the schedule will be much tougher, Kliff’s offense won’t surprise teams this year the way it did last year, and they didn’t do enough defensively in my book.

But Daniels is a huge MVP contender. He should have finished much higher in 2024 for it too if people actually cared about the value of making the god damn Washington NFL franchise relevant again.

I thought that was impossible in the salary cap era.

3. Dallas Cowboys (7-10)

I guess in the end I soured on my 8-9 win prediction and could only repeat 7-10 for Dallas with a healthy Dak and the best WR2 (George Pickens) he’s had since 2021. But Brian Schottenheimer Jr. is unproven in this spot, and the Micah Parsons trade was not good at all for this team’s 2025 prospects.

Are you having a good time now, Jerry? You did it, you did it, baby, you did it!

4. New York Giants (6-11)

They were the only team I talked about the preseason for since they were so prolific with 345 net passing yards per game and over 36 points. Sure, that’s likely going to lead to the ugliest first quarter of offense of any team this Sunday, but one could dream Brian Daboll has figured things out with his job on the line, right?

But a Russ redemption season would be cool, and Jaxson Dart had an impressive preseason. Might see him soon enough as that schedule is brutal.

AFC SOUTH

1. Jacksonville Jaguars (10-7)

I picked Liam Coen for Coach of the Year with the expectation he’ll get a career year out of Trevor Lawrence with his best weapons yet, and they’ll manage Travis Hunter well to take back this division.

Sure, it could be a disaster too from the guy who started his presser with “Duuuuvallll” like some kind of Willy Wonka Football Factory nerd. But trust the guy knows what he’s doing offensively.  

2. Houston Texans (9-8)

They didn’t make the leap last year as I expected, and I think the roster is all over the place offensively aside from Stroud to Nico Collins. I think they take a step back.

3. Tennessee Titans (5-12)

The most optimistic thought is Cam Ward, a very disrespected No. 1 pick, does his best C.J. Stroud (2023) and Jayden Daniels (2024) and takes this team to the playoffs. But I think there’s still a lot of work to be done here as Brian Callahan wasn’t showing much last year.

4. Indianapolis Colts (5-12)

Fvcking hell. How did this team get here? I temporarily can’t even suggest Arch Manning is the answer after Week 1. But the Colts can’t keep starting a different washed-up quarterback every year since Andrew Luck retired.

The sad part is the roster isn’t half bad outside of the most important position.

NFC SOUTH

1. Atlanta Falcons (10-7)

This didn’t work last year, but here we go again. I think Michael Penix Jr. opens up the offense, Bijan Robinson wins OPOY, and we look at them with Drake London as the new triplets. Raheem Morris got several pass rushers in the draft and free agency, so he should be better on that side of the ball.

It’s just another division where I’m looking for a change after Tampa Bay’s grip hasn’t been that strong. They had to survive an Atlanta sweep last year. But if Penix bombs in Week 1 against the Bucs, I’ll already be regretting this pick.

2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-8)

They’re obviously a talented team, but they lost Liam Coen, Baker still had a lot of turnovers with him last year, and they have some injuries this year like Chris Godwin. Mike Evans isn’t getting any younger either. They’re the weakest team in the 32-team era to win 4 straight division titles, so I think the streak ends here.

3. Carolina Panthers (7-10)

I’m still not sold on Bryce Young (or Dave Canales), hence a cautious 7-10 since they did play the Chiefs and Eagles (oh, Leggette would catch that shit if it was baked in raccoon flavoring) well last year.

4. New Orleans Saints (3-14)

Pour one out for Kellen Moore, walking into the worst quarterback battle in the NFC. It says everything that the biggest salary cap hit on this team is Tayson Hill this year.

AFC NORTH

1. Baltimore Ravens (12-5)

I probably could have found a way to give them another win instead of going 12-5 again. But that would mess with my Week 1 prediction and how I wanted Buffalo to get the No. 1 seed, and how I didn’t want any team with 14 wins in the AFC. So, 12-5 it is.

But they should be stronger defensively after that slow start, they should have Zay Flowers for the playoffs this time around, and that offense is obviously hard to stop with Lamar and Henry. Just need to find a way to protect the ball in January and take it away on defense for a change.

Just hope the rookie kicker replacing the asshole who’s disgraced his GOAT legacy doesn’t become the guy who throws the season for a loop. Because it’s always something in Baltimore in the playoffs.

2. Cincinnati Bengals (10-7)

I picked Joe Burrow to win MVP. Not because I think he’ll improve on last year’s stats and production. But because I think the Bengals will manage the turnover battle better, he’ll have a couple of clutch wins for a change, and even a 10-7 record/wild card is enough for those guys like Dan Orlovsky, Emmanuel Acho, and Chris Simms to give him the MVP.

They were soft launching it last year when he finished fourth in voting despite missing the playoffs. But I don’t think the defense is improved enough to go on a deep run to another Super Bowl or AFC-CG.

3. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7)

It would be something if the arrival of Aaron Rodgers led to Mike Tomlin’s first losing season. I was all for the 8-9 finish for months. But then the Steelers kept adding all these veterans like Darius Slay, Jalen Ramsey, Jonnu Smith, and the draft seemed solid with Derrick Harmon.

This really could be the best defense Rodgers has played with since 2010. But then I’m reminded that this sounds like what I said about him with the Jets in 2023 and 2024 before he had another one of his worst seasons just like in 2022 when he missed the playoffs in Green Bay.

I’m not optimistic about this team doing a thing in January, but I find myself still picking 10 wins for them. It’s Tomlin’s thing at this point.

4. Cleveland Browns (4-13)

I think Kevin Stefanski gets fired after he wants to stick with Joe Flacco and the fans and ownership force him to play Shedeur Sanders after Dillon Gabriel magically gets injured during the season. Just a messy situation and you already see why most teams wanted nothing to do with the headache over a third-string quarterback.

NFC NORTH

1. Green Bay Packers (13-4)

Wow, the Green Bay Packers really drafted a first-round WR (Matthew Golden) and traded big capital for an elite pass rusher (Micah Parsons). Where was that in the 2010s when Aaron Rodgers was trying to win another Super Bowl?

But you saw the stat. Favre and Rodgers won their Super Bowl in their age-27 season. Love is 27 this year. He played like an MVP in the second half of 2023 and injuries kept throwing him off a little in 2024. I think he has his most complete season in 2025 and this team’s stability on top of adding two elite talents puts them over the top for one of the most consistent winning coaches we have today.

2. Detroit Lions (10-7)

It’s not just that they lost both coordinators, but they also lost some interior linemen, and 15-win teams usually regress by 4-5 wins anyway. Detroit is still good and Dan Campbell will still be aggressive. But I see Goff taking a step back after a career year and the defense is still too dependent on Aidan Hutchinson.

3. Chicago Bears (8-9)

I love what Ben Johnson was selling this offseason, but I think the stacked division prevents him from winning Coach of the Year as you need to make the playoffs for that. But he’d be a slam dunk in the South divisions.

4. Minnesota Vikings (7-10)

Let’s make one thing very clear. I don’t “hate” J.J. McCarthy. I have no reason to (yet). I just hate that I don’t have information on him going into Year 2, and with the way Kevin O’Connell has gone from 13 wins (with a negative scoring differential) to 7-10 back up to 14-3 with Sam Darnold, he’s too volatile for my liking.

Throw in McCarthy being a wild card and I’m just going to keep it at 7-10/no playoffs for what is a playoff-ready roster. If I’m wrong, then so be it. I’ll judge McCarthy on merit. But for now, until he proves himself, I just trust the teams with LaFleur/Love, McVay/Stafford, and Jayden Daniels more.

And someone has to win the South.

PLAYOFFS

Most teams were coming out exactly the way I hoped for when getting to their win count. Took some adjustments as always, and the Vikings were the team I had to find wins for the most as apparently I got too sour on them. I really did stick to some of my 2024 gut picks that didn’t pan out, so maybe I was just a year early. Doubling down for sure on some of these.

In the end, I had four new playoff teams, which still feels low. Three of them are division winners.

AFC

  • 1. Buffalo (13-4)
  • 2. Kansas City (12-5)
  • 3. Baltimore (12-5)
  • 4. Jacksonville (10-7)
  • 5. Denver (11-6)
  • 6. Cincinnati (10-7)
  • 7. Pittsburgh (10-7)

Believe it or not, we finally get that Aaron Rodgers vs. Patrick Mahomes game, and it ends up being the final game of Rodgers’ career as he retires after the loss. The Ravens finish 2-1 against the Bengals and send them packing. The Broncos-Jaguars meet in the Bill O’Brien Saturday Invitational, and the winner loses in Buffalo.

That leaves the 3 teams you expect. I don’t love Baltimore in that No. 3 position, but if you’re going to get over the hump like the 2012 team did, why not go big? That team beat Manning and Brady on the road to get to the Super Bowl. The Baltimore defense finally gives Lamar a big turnover in January in Kansas City, leading to a game-winning field goal by the rookie kicker. The Ravens then complete the season sweep of Buffalo, beating them in the first and last game of the season.

NFC

  • 1. Green Bay (13-4)
  • 2. Philadelphia (13-4)
  • 3. San Francisco (11-6)
  • 4. Atlanta (10-7)
  • 5. Washington (10-7)
  • 6. LA Rams (10-7)
  • 7. Detroit (10-7)

The Lions put up a fight in Philly but fall short. Jayden Daniels educates the Falcons about the playoffs in Atlanta. 49ers-Rams could go either way, but I think Shanahan gets the win over McVay this time.

While Daniels eyes another road upset of a No. 1 seed, Parsons earns his extension with a huge play that leads to a Green Bay win. The 49ers have to keep their streak alive (no playoffs or NFC-CG), so they end Philly’s repeat bid after Brock Purdy gets his revenge for the elbow injury three years ago. They’re one game away from playing the Super Bowl at Levi’s.

That sets up another Packers vs. 49ers clash in the playoffs, and it’s one of the biggest yet. Shanahan blows a 10-point lead in the fourth quarter (redundant) as Jordan Love establishes himself as the comeback QB that neither Favre nor Rodgers ever was.

SUPER BOWL LX

It’s Ravens vs. Packers in February. Something fresh with neither team getting there since 2010 and 2012 respectively. All the hype is about Lamar owning the NFC in his career and how it’s his time now.

But in some weird way, Jerry Jones gets the last laugh as the Ravens kill Green Bay with Derrick Henry on the ground on a night where Lamar is solid but doesn’t throw more than 20 passes. The narrative flips to how they ended up missing Kenny Clark’s run defense and Parsons was a no-show for the big one.

Down 27-20 late, Jordan Love is intercepted by Jaire Alexander, the former Packer turned Raven. Baltimore ends the 75-year run the Five-Year Rule had as Jackson and Harbaugh finally make it happen in Year 8 together.

Ravens 27, Packers 20 (Super Bowl MVP: Derrick Henry)

I was going to say I could definitely live with this season outcome, then I realized this will make TruthBearer, the Lamar superfan on Twitter, be the next person I have to block.

At least I know I provided one happy ending today.

NFL Stat Oddity: Week 15

~ Scott ~ 6 Comments

Just another strange week in the NFL in the 2023 season. It started with the end of the Brandon Staley era in Los Angeles after the Raiders scored 63 points. One of the best halves of the year was played between Nick Mullens and Jake Browning in Cincinnati. There were multiple eventful Hail Mary attempts in Cleveland. The game of the week was a 21-point blowout.

All that just to tell us the 49ers are the best team in the league, and we’ll see if the Ravens have anything to say about that next week. But that’s next week.

This week is still going with MNF to come, but we have only had 4 games with a comeback opportunity. That would tie the lowest mark in the 13 seasons I’ve been doing this weekly, and it would be the lowest in a week where all 32 teams played. We had four teams win a game after trailing by double digits, which is a high number, but just not much drama late in games.

I would be shocked if Monday night did not get this week up to 5 opportunities given it’s Pete Carroll’s Seahawks on a Monday night, the 2023 Eagles are going to be there, and maybe a Flu Game for Jalen Hurts (questionable with illness).

I’m not going to cover the Saturday tripleheader below, because I think it was pretty self-explanatory. The games got progressively more one-sided as the day went on with Detroit blowing the doors off the Broncos, making them look like the team that started 1-5 and gave up 70 points in Miami. See what happens when Detroit protects the ball and the Broncos aren’t feasting on turnovers?

The Steelers blew a 13-point lead (5th time under Mike Tomlin) and still went on to lose by 13-plus points for only the second time in franchise history. Tomlin’s decision to punt, down 11 points, with one of the best kickers in the league was another low point for him.

The sloppy first half of Vikings-Bengals actually paved the way for one of the best finishes of the season in overtime. Jake Browning now has as many 7-point comeback wins in the fourth quarter as Joe Burrow in his career (2). Nick Mullens threw arguably the funniest interception of the season, but it was also the 6th game this season where both quarterbacks passed for over 300 yards and multiple touchdown passes:

Tee Higgins had one of the best plays of the year, showing the awareness at the goal line and why he would be a No. 1 wideout on most teams. But that whole half was a good example of what can happen when quarterbacks, even backups like Mullens and Browning, give their great receiving talent chances to make plays.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Cowboys at Bills: Familiar Tune for Dallas, New Hit for Buffalo

I need to stop putting high expectations on these big matchups this year. If Mike McCarthy didn’t put his starters back in facing a 31-3 deficit, this might have ended with the Cowboys failing to score a touchdown and neither starting quarterback passing for 100 yards. Yeah, there was rain, but this game was pain.

There are certainly more important things than the MVP award, but I think Dak Prescott just threw it away this year after doing the only thing he couldn’t do: have a total dud performance. Prescott threw for 43 yards in the first half and never looked comfortable, running into a sack on an early third down. The Cowboys have some explaining to do in how the offense can look so unstoppable at home and pedestrian on the road. Only a low-pressure drive, down 31-3, got the offense into the end zone with the game out of reach.

Throw in some early 15-yard roughing penalties on the Cowboys, and this was quickly a 14-0 game when it could have only been 3-0 and maybe the offense could have figured things out. But the Cowboys took themselves out of this one early and never recovered, and that’s been a theme in their big losses under McCarthy. That’s why this team going on the road in the playoffs every round is a big problem.

As for Buffalo, we have gotten so used to the Bills putting the ball in Josh Allen’s hands in big games since 2020 to the point where they don’t even try to run the ball with their running backs. If there is any clear difference in the offense since Ken Dorsey was fired as the offensive coordinator, it would be the impact of running back James Cook.

He had the best game of his career Sunday, making this the least Josh Allen game ever as the quarterback only threw for 94 yards on 15 passes. He even finished with just 8 runs for 24 yards and another touchdown run. But this was the Cook show with 25 carries for 179 yards, a touchdown on the ground, and 42 receiving yards and a great touchdown grab.

Cook did anything he wanted to this defense in the rain, which was a good strategy for sure. But it was still surprising to see Allen throw just 15 passes, or for Dalton Kincaid to have multiple drops at tight end. This was the least the passing game had to do for Buffalo in a game in years.

I’m not sold this is going to be the strategy for Buffalo moving forward, but it did lead to 28 first downs and 31 points against a solid defense. Those early penalties did help extend drives that otherwise end with a field goal attempt and punt, but the Bills moved the ball well and only had 6 possessions with Allen before calling off the dogs in the fourth quarter.

It was just nice to see Buffalo try something different in a big game and make it work. It was disheartening to see Dallas falter in familiar fashion. I flirted in the summer with this being my Super Bowl matchup, but if I had to pick one of these teams to go the distance right now, I’m going with Buffalo, which is still only the No. 9 seed as things currently stand.

But Buffalo will be one of the most “team you don’t want to face in January” teams in years. The Cowboys could lose to Baker Mayfield in the wild card round at this point if this is how they are going to continue playing in big road games.

Ravens at Jaguars: Not a Top Tier Team in Jacksonville

Sunday night could have been a really good game, but Jacksonville’s shortcomings and the way the Ravens control games this year made for a dud of a finish. Once the Ravens scored a touchdown to start the fourth quarter and take a 17-7 lead, the life was sucked out of this one with Jacksonville’s 3-and-out. The Ravens added a field goal, Trevor Lawrence was strip-sacked, the Ravens added another field goal (23-7), and Jacksonville eventually turned it over on downs in the red zone with 3:19 left.

But what a crazy first half. The Jaguars repeatedly moved the ball into scoring territory, but they missed a pair of long field goals, Lawrence flat out fumbled the ball in the open field on a scramble, and he botched the end of the half by not spiking the ball and throwing a pass in bounds inside the 5-yard line to see the clock expire with the Jaguars out of timeouts. Major mistake.

But a game like this does continue to show the flaws in Jacksonville’s roster, especially with Chrisitan Kirk out injured. The Jaguars only scored 9 points against the Chiefs, 3 points against the 49ers, and now 7 points against the Ravens – three Super Bowl contenders that they got to host at home this year and lost to.

Lawrence’s accuracy is too inconsistent, Calvin Ridley (39 yards on 12 targets) hasn’t been the No. 1 stud we thought he could be, and the running game with Travis Etienne just hasn’t been there most of the year.

As for the Ravens, they are just a lot to deal with given Lamar Jackson’s unique skills. He only passed for 171 yards in this game, but he made some key extended plays, and he ran for 97 yards on the way to the team rushing for 251 yards.

The Jaguars are in real danger of losing the AFC South title now that the Colts and Texans are all 8-6. But it feels like this team is going to be limited in playoff success this year regardless of where it finishes in the regular season.

With Baltimore, we’ll see the ultimate test when they travel to San Francisco next Monday night.

Chiefs at Patriots: They Still Haven’t Cut Toney?

As far as Kansas City games go in 2023, this 27-17 win in New England was tame. But they may have been in trouble if they were playing a better team than the Patriots, who were 2-of-12 on third down.

The Chiefs lost another turnover battle (2-1) thanks to a couple of interceptions thrown by Patrick Mahomes on passes that went to his receivers first before they were taken away. The egregious one was yet another play by Kadarius Toney that looked just like his Week 1 drop-to-pick against the Lions. At least this one didn’t get returned for a touchdown, but it did set up the Patriots on a short field for their last touchdown drive to make the game 27-17. Toney just has to go. It is ridiculous to keep putting him on the field when his 4 targets resulted in 5 yards and that turnover.

Travis Kelce was held to 28 yards, but this was a big game for CEH, who had to carry the load with Isiah Pacheco out again. His 20-yard run was the only rushing play of note for the Chiefs, but CEH had a strong receiving game with 64 yards and a very nice touchdown grab.

We’ll see how the Chiefs fare at home against the Raiders next week after Vegas scored 63 points on the Chargers largely by feasting on turnovers. The Chiefs were dying to cough up the obligatory fumble in this game, so they better start protecting that ball better because you’re not going to play the likes of Bailey Zappe and Aidan O’Connell in the playoffs.

Texans at Titans: Luv Ya Blue (No Tie)

It sure did not look like the Texans showed up to play after allowing a big opening touchdown drive by rookie Will Levis, and then Case Keenum threw a pick-six on a play that looked like a new quarterback out of sync with his players. The Texans trailed 13-0 at that point while the Oilers Titans were thriving in their Houston throwback uniforms, which apparently ticked off some of the natives in Texas this week.

But Keenum settled down and the Texans basically beat the Titans at their own game. Devin Singletary rushed for 121 yards while Derrick Henry, the Houston Killer, was held to 9 yards on 16 carries. Levis was pummeled and sacked 7 times.

Keenum got away with one of the dumbest, most dangerous passes of the season that Dalton Schultz somehow turned into a catch, and the Texans forced the game with a touchdown to Noah Brown, who stepped up with Nico Collins out.

After 7 straight scoreless drives and the game getting late into overtime, it really looked like a tie was inevitable, something this 2023 season has avoided so far. When Singletary’s 34-yard touchdown run was wiped away for holding, it really felt like we were going to get a god damn tie.

But much love to returning kicker Ka’imi Fairbairn for making a 54-yard field goal to give the Texans a 19-16 win and avoid that tie. We now have a 3-way tie at 8-6 in the AFC South. That’s the only kind of tie I want to see in the NFL.

49ers at Cardinals: Is San Francisco Inevitable?

It was only Arizona, but San Francisco’s 45-29 win to complete the sweep and clinch the NFC West was the team’s 6th-straight win by at least 12 points, something that’s only been done 23 times now.

In the salary cap era, only the 1996 Packers, 1999 Rams (twice), 2005 Colts, 2007 Patriots, and 2009 Saints have had a streak this long before these 49ers. Those are historic teams with three of them winning the Super Bowl.

Brock Purdy threw 4 more touchdown passes and has taken a considerable lead over Dak Prescott in QBR while adding to his other league-leading efficiency stats. He is the MVP favorite now with roughly -150 odds after Dak Prescott’s dud in Buffalo. Deebo Samuel scored another pair of touchdowns and Christian McCaffrey put in 3 more. Both were left completely wide open on one of their touchdowns, which is crazy to think could happen.

Even in a game where Arizona piled up 234 rushing yards, it never really felt like the Cardinals had much of a chance. In fact, the Cardinals are the first home team in NFL history to score at least 29 points and rush for at least 200 yards and lose by more than 14 points.

The 49ers have really been the NFL’s best team since Purdy took over at quarterback, and injuries have been the main thing to hold them back in their losses in that time. We’ll see how they look next Monday night at home against the top-seeded Ravens. But if it’s anything like the streak the 49ers have been on, the Super Bowl odds are about to get even better for this juggernaut.

In a league lacking in consistency, the inevitably of the 49ers is impressive.

Bears at Browns: Hail Flacco

This felt like one of those fluky Chicago games from one of their playoff seasons where they get a tipped ball for a pick-6 after an earlier pick set them up for a 1-yard touchdown drive.

Basically, this game was a good example of why the Cleveland defense does not have a better ranking in points allowed, because the Chicago offense barely contributed more than 3 points to this score. Joe Flacco got a little loose with the ball in his third start for the team and was intercepted 3 times.

But against a tough run defense like Chicago that held the Browns to 17 carries for 30 yards, you need a quarterback to hang in there and pass on them. Flacco can still do that as he put the ball up 44 more times in this one for 374 yards.

Flacco passed for 212 yards in the fourth quarter alone as the Browns have a formidable offense with Amari Cooper and tight end David Njoku. But the Bears are also one of the great fourth-quarter collapse teams in the league, and you could feel that 17-7 lead wasn’t going to hold up for Matt Eberflus. Hell, the first play of the quarter was Justin Fields taking a sack on a 4th-and-1.

Flacco eventually led the team back with a 51-yard touchdown threaded in there to Cooper, who did the rest after the catch. The defense forced a quick 3-and-out, and Flacco found Njoku for gains of 31 and 34 yards to set up a go-ahead field goal with 32 seconds left.

That is barely enough time for Chicago to get into range, but kicking was probably going to be difficult on this day. Eventually, they settled for the Hail Mary finish after already getting a crack at it to end the first half with Fields’ pass intercepted in the end zone.

This one was quite the adventure with Darnell Mooney having a real shot at it on the ground, but the ball left his hands, and he kicked it to a defender for another interception in one of the wildest finishes we’ve seen this year.

This is the kind of ending we are used to seeing go against Cleveland, but not this year. At 9-5, the Browns have clinched a second winning season under Kevin Stefanski, and they are in position for the No. 5 seed. That might be Coach of the Year material for the 2020 winner of the award.

Buccaneers at Packers: Refreshing to See Some Great QB Play in Tampa…

There was a time when a Florida team winning at Lambeau Field in December would have been a huge headline, but it was only 42 degrees, and the Packers haven’t had the best week after losing to Tommy DeVito and the Giants on Monday night.

This was also the third year in a row that Baker Mayfield played in Lambeau in December, and with his third different team, he was not walking away a loser again. In fact, he had arguably the best game of his career with 381 yards, 4 touchdowns, and a perfect 158.3 passer rating. He did take 5 sacks and lose a fumble as the pass rush was on him early, but the passes Baker got off, he was slicing and dicing the Packers down the seams.

Every time the Packers pulled within a score in the second half, Baker had an answer. His 52-yard touchdown pass to ice it to David Moore almost ended in disaster with the receiver foolishly releasing the ball close to the goal line. But the touchdown stood and Green Bay trailed 34-20.

It was the sixth time this season the Buccaneers (7-7) scored at least 20 offensive points on the road. They didn’t do it even once in 2022.

Falcons at Panthers: We Might Need to Get Arthur Smith Up Out of There

I kind of love this stat: Carolina is 2-12 but has yet to run a single play with a fourth-quarter lead this season. Both wins have come on field goals on the final snap of the game. They did it to Houston in Week 8 and now again to the Falcons for the second year in the rain in a 9-7 barnburner.

I knew this game was trouble when the weather reports came out, so I largely avoided any bets on it. You just can’t trust the Falcons, but they probably should have won this one.

Atlanta, leading 7-3, was running a give-up play to Bijan Robinson on a 3rd-and-10, and he ended up fumbling, giving the Panthers the ball at the Atlanta 21 as the game was moving to the fourth quarter. The Panthers stalled but were right to kick the field goal to make it 7-6. You just can’t trust the Bryce Young-led offense to convert a 4th-and-4 from the 7, keeping it a 7-6 game would likely keep Atlanta in conservative mode instead of playing from behind, and you can just win on a field goal. Oh yeah, it’s also the Falcons, the NFC’s version of the Chargers.

The defense wasn’t holding up its end of the bargain with Atlanta driving into the red zone, but that’s when Desmond Ridder threw a pass that his season, if not his time in Atlanta, may be remembered best for:

https://twitter.com/tankathon/status/1736487658442916294/video/1

What the hell was that? Point shaving? Anything even remotely conservative should lead to a field goal and 10-6 lead with under half a quarter left, making the Panthers think touchdown or bust. Just an atrocious decision that could cost this team the playoffs.

Young still had to drive his offense from the 5 in the rain, but he only needed to set up a short field goal for a win. He got the job done with one of his only good drives all season, moving the ball 90 yards on 17 plays, mostly through his arm. The Falcons burned all their timeouts and still couldn’t stop Chuba Hubbard on a 3rd-and-3 run, allowing for the 23-yard field goal by Eddie Pineiro to be the final snap of regulation.

He made the kick and for the second time this season, the Panthers earned a win on the last play. It was the first time since October 21, 2018 that the Panthers won a game after trailing by more than 1 point in the fourth quarter.

Of course, it had to be at the expense of the Falcons.

Giants at Saints: [Insert Somehow Still Acceptable Derogatory Reference About Italians]

I think Tommy DeVito needs about 2 more wins before his agent can get Adrien Brody to play him in a movie. But it’s not going to happen like this. The Giants scored two field goals in New Orleans, including one from 56 yards away that saw the kicker get injured in the process. DeVito also had to leave the game temporarily for a concussion check, but he returned to end up in more pain as he took 7 sacks.

I said it was a miracle that the Packers did not sack him once on Monday night, because his sack rate is abysmal and should be over 20% again. Saquon Barkley also had his worst game in a while with 14 yards on 9 carries as the Saints just dominated up front. Meanwhile, Derek Carr was kept clean and finished 23-of-28 for 218 yards and 3 touchdowns, somehow playing his best game without the services of Chris Olave.

In all, a pretty bland 24-6 win. No spicy meatballs for the Paisan.

Commanders at Rams: Is There a Coaching Staff in Washington?

We know Jack Del Rio’s dusty ass was fired during the season, but is there even a coaching staff left in Washington? People really want Eric Bieniemy to be a head coach, and sure, it’s tough to not want a coordinator who sees his offense go into halftime scoreless.

But then I had to love how Cooper Kupp was left wide open on a 62-yard touchdown to start the second half. Gotta love when a defensive back is peeking 20+ yards into the backfield as if keeping an eye on Matthew Stafford from that distance while Kupp blows past you is going to do anything.

Then the Commanders, down 28-7, seemed to pull the plug a little early on Sam Howell with 9:05 left, but maybe it was because of the pick he threw on his last play. But Jacoby Brissett entered the game and this almost turned into some 2005 Mark Brunell to Santana Moss kind of batshit craziness. Terry McLaurin caught a 29-yard touchdown, then it looked like he had a score from 49 yards out with 4:47 left, but he was down at the 1.

Remember when Andy Reid was known for horrible clock management? Bieniemy must have made him proud as it took 3 minutes and 1 second over 9 snaps for the Commanders to finally score the touchdown to make it a one-possession game:

I can’t believe that sequence was real life. This could have very well been a game with a realistic 21-point comeback there if they got that score much quicker. Then Ron Rivera must not have watched the Titans on Monday night, because he botched not going for 2 here. The extra point was blocked, fittingly, and it was still 28-20 anyway with 1:46 left.

The Commanders did have all of their timeouts, but maybe they would have gotten the ball back if they didn’t take an eternity to score from the 1. This is another team that needs major housecleaning in the offseason.

Jets at Dolphins: Just End the Season

Seriously, we’ve seen enough of the 2023 Jets. They have been eliminated from the playoffs after losing 30-0 to a Miami team that didn’t have Tyreek Hill. The Jets had 80 net passing yards on 43 pass plays due to sacks. Maybe that will end this silly talk of Aaron Rodgers returning from a torn Achilles, because why would anyone even want to play behind this line? They still can’t run block either, finishing with 12 carries for 23 yards.

The Jets join the 2018 Redskins (lost 24-0 vs. Eagles) and 1999 Browns (lost 43-0 vs. Steelers) as the only teams since 1990 to not pass for more than 80 net yards and not rush for more than 25 yards in the same game.

Next week: Seven island games in one week? The NFL really wants to take over our Christmas with TNF, a Saturday doubleheader, a normal Sunday lineup, and a Monday tripleheader. Not many games are appealing either, but TNF is actually legit with seeing how Derek Carr will fare in a pseudo playoff game against the Rams. There’s also the crazy possibility of Mike Tomlin’s final home game if things go off the rails here the rest of the way. Maybe Dallas will fare better in Miami’s weather, but yikes, talk about two teams who don’t beat the good teams this year, especially on the road. The highlight of the week is clearly the finale on MNF with Ravens-49ers, a possible battle of No. 1 seeds, a possible Super Bowl preview for Christmas.

NFL Stat Oddity: Week 12

~ Scott ~ 8 Comments

The holiday games left a lot to be desired for this NFL season, but Week 12 managed to follow it with a game of the year candidate between the Bills and Eagles. It was the only game all week with a fourth-quarter lead change, and there were multiple lead changes at that.

The only other game-winning drive in Week 12 went to the Giants after another low point for Bill Belichick’s 2-win Patriots. Week 12 has 8 games with a comeback opportunity so far, which is a low number given 15 games have been played. We are almost at the point where the bye weeks are over and everyone’s played an equal number of games.

I’m only going to cover Sunday’s 11 games below as I think Thanksgiving was straightforward. The only surprise was that Detroit is suddenly looking vulnerable and Green Bay might be figuring things out with Jordan Love. The Lions have rarely looked good on defense since the blowout loss to the Ravens, and the offense is in a turnover funk right now with Jared Goff (3 picks, 3 fumbles lost over the last two games). We’ll see if Minnesota can sweep Chicago on Monday night to keep the pressure on the Lions for the NFC North since they still have to meet twice this year.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Bills at Eagles: Game of the Year Edition

Finally, a game that lived up to and exceeded the hype. If you want to see points and drama in an NFL game this year, you have to focus on the big matchups in the afternoon as the island games have been awful all year. We can only be so lucky that 49ers-Eagles turns out this good next Sunday afternoon.

But an easy way to trigger all the PTSD in a Buffalo fan is to tell them their season is going to end on the wrong side of a clutch field goal kick, a go-ahead Gabe Davis TD called by Nantz and Romo that doesn’t hold up after the 2-minute warning, and an overtime game where Josh Allen doesn’t have the ball last. I think we covered about everything except the Music City Miracle, but maybe the Eagles are saving their kickoff return dark voodoo for next week.

This is going to fall on deaf ears for Buffalo fans who are tired of hearing this in the Sean McDermott era, which may not have many games left to it, but the Bills should have won this game.

Since 1991, teams with at least 29 points and 12 third-down conversions were 53-0. Make that 53-1 now.

Buffalo had 505 yards and was 13-of-22 on third down. Since 1991, teams with 13 conversions on third down are 29-4, and this Buffalo team has half the losses. They somehow lost 42-16 to the Titans in 2020 in a game where they were 13-of-17 on third down.

Just like the Chiefs on Monday night, the Bills led Philly 17-7 at halftime, but it should have been more than that. While Josh Allen looked outstanding in the rain, his kicker did not. Jalen Carter blocked Tyler Bass’ 34-yard field goal with 1:24 left in the half, and then he was wide right on a 48-yard field goal in the third quarter.

While Allen had over 200 yards at halftime despite the rain and his linemen’s penalties, Jalen Hurts was not handling the elements well. He was 4-of-11 for 33 yards, an interception, and a lost fumble at halftime.

But you know the Eagles can come back, and you know the Bills are either a blowout win or close loss team. It did not look like they would blow the Eagles out, though the yardage margins were so out of whack (276-99 at halftime) that they probably should have.

Even after Allen scrambled for a 16-yard touchdown, his second of the day on the ground, to take a 24-14 lead into the fourth quarter, it still didn’t feel safe for Buffalo. After the Eagles had their best drive for a touchdown, Allen was intercepted again, giving the Eagles the ball 24 yards away from the lead. Quick, someone fire Ken Dorsey again.

But after moving backwards on two plays, the Eagles faced a 3rd-and-15. McDermott’s defense could have stepped up and made a play, but instead they looked like Auburn’s defense against Alabama on Saturday as Zaccheaus caught a 29-yard touchdown in the end zone to give the Eagles a 28-24 lead.

In a game where he dropped back 60 times, Allen took his only sack on third down on the next drive, but the Eagles went three-and-out. Allen did not waste his second opportunity, and he threw a 7-yard touchdown to Gabe Davis with 1:52 left.

The Eagles drove to the Buffalo 34 before things got dicey. Jason Kelce had a pair of false starts, which you don’t expect. A designed run by Hurts only gained 3 yards when it looked like the hole was there. Then Hurts threw an incompletion on 3rd-and-17.

Jake Elliott was going to have to make a 59-yard field goal in rainy conditions to save this game for overtime. Things looked bleak, but I actually thought Buffalo screwed up by not letting A.J. Brown catch the short pass Jordan Poyer knocked away from him on 3rd & 17. It was only going to gain a few yards. Make them rush the field goal unit out there (no timeouts) for a hurried kick from 55+ yards. Instead, they had time to prepare, and McDermott even iced the kicker with a timeout. I didn’t like that move by Buffalo.

Sure enough, Elliott snuck the field goal through to tie the game at 31. It may only be a regular-season game, but that should go down as one of the best kicks in NFL history. Not going to top what Adam Vinatieri did in the Tuck Rule game and the snow to save a title run in the playoffs, but as far as regular-season kick goes, you’d have a hard time finding something better.

Buffalo had 20 seconds and 1 timeout left. This team more than anyone should know about what you can do in 20 (or 13) seconds. Why not let Allen throw a pass and try to get a drive going? Did they not trust the kicker that much, or did they not trust Allen to throw a pick? Either way, I hated the kneeldown too.

In overtime, the Bills took the ball first, which is understandable in a game like this. But you have to make that drive count, and Allen came up short again when his third-down pass was a miscommunication in the end zone with Davis. That could have been the winner. Buffalo settled for the field goal and Bass at least hit from 40 yards this time.

We got to see that rare bit of football where you have 4 downs and virtually no hurry with 5:52 to move down the field. Brown almost fumbled the game away, but I thought the officials got it right with a bang-bang play. Incomplete pass but that’s just another example of how thin the margins are for the Eagles all year.

After DeVonta Smith made a third-down conversion, the Bills were in trouble. Swift had a 16-yard run against a tired defense, and then a bad play call by McDermott left the middle of the field wide open for Hurts to race 12 yards into the end zone to end it. Eagles win 37-34.

Allen falls to 0-6 in overtime games in his career, and Buffalo can’t say there weren’t multiple chances to put this one away. The Bills go into their bye thinking they had a season-saving win, and instead it’s a heartbreaking loss to fall to 6-6. They still have to go to Kansas City next and host Dallas. The playoffs are looking like a longshot, and that’s now a league-high fourth blown lead in the fourth quarter for the Bills this year, who are 2-5 in close games.

On the other side of the coin, the 2023 Eagles are 9-1 in close games, the best record in the league. That’s literally every game of their season except for the 25-11 win in Tampa Bay. I don’t see how this is sustainable. The Vikings are the only other team to play 10 close games this year and they are 5-5 (11-0 last year and we know how that ended). Which teams have played the fewest close games? Cowboys (3), Lions (4), and 49ers (4), the other top teams in the conference this year.

Next week should be very interesting when the 49ers come to town. They are similar to Buffalo in the “win big, lose close” category, but they’re also a much better team.

Ravens at Chargers: Is Brandon Staley Finished?

It feels like the last few times I wrote about a coach being fired by the time I wake up on Monday, it’s happened. Frank Reich in Indy and Matt Rhule in Carolina come to mind. Sunday night might have been the final nail in the coffin for Brandon Staley.

The Chargers are 4-7 and the No. 13 seed in a competitive AFC despite having Justin Herbert at quarterback. But the Chargers are now 1-7 at game-winning drive opportunities this year, the most losses in the league.

This was another mistake-filled performance, and the reason I say Staley is going soon is this time it was the offense that failed the Chargers the most. The defense actually held a red-hot Baltimore team that had scored 31 points in 5 straight games to 13 points for 58 minutes. Lamar Jackson was only 18-of-32 for 177 yards against the No. 32 pass defense. The Ravens tried a lot of WR screens and just weren’t that impressive on offense.

But the Chargers turned the ball over 4 times, and it was their best players that let them down. Keenan Allen and Austin Ekeler both lost fumbles in the second quarter. Herbert’s only interception was a Hail Mary that didn’t matter to end the half, but he was stripped in the red zone by Jadeveon Clowney in the fourth quarter when it was 13-3.

The Chargers are known for blowing leads, but Baltimore has been quite bad in this area the last few years. It looked like things were turning the Chargers’ way too as a touchdown to Gerald Everett made it 13-10, then Justin Tucker shocked everyone by missing a 44-yard field goal with 2:57 left. I fully thought Tucker would make it to give Baltimore a 16-10 lead, Herbert would answer with a touchdown, and Tucker would win it 19-17 on another field goal. But nope.

The Chargers had a real chance in a 13-10 game at their own 34. But Herbert was disappointing on a drive where Baltimore stepped up and played great defense. It is so hard to keep a team out of field goal range when it’s in this pass-heavy, 4-down mode, but they did it to Herbert here. A well-timed DB blitz on 4th-and-6 got to Herbert and he was flagged for intentional grounding.

Zay Flowers put it away with his second touchdown of the night – this time on a 37-yard touchdown run where he could have just slid down any time after the first down and the game would have ended. But that made it 20-10, and Herbert was unable to move more than 12 yards before another drive turned it over on downs.

The Baltimore defense was very impressive. The offense left something to be desired but you know that unit can be tough to play against with their uniquely skilled quarterback.

But it was a game there for the taking, and the Chargers did not step up again. I’m not sure how many more weeks they let this happen before a change is made.

Jaguars at Texans: Houston Stumbles in Biggest Game in Four Seasons

The Texans were my upset pick this week, but in the back of my mind I knew it was a risky pick. The Texans are the “too much too soon” team in this matchup with their rookie coach and quarterback. They gave Carolina their only win of the season, then followed it with a 3-game winning streak where they outscored the Bucs, Bengals, and Cardinals by a combined 10 points despite huge production from rookie C.J. Stroud.

The Jaguars are the “experienced team” even though they were just 3-7 going into their Baltimore game that turned things around one year ago to the date. But they have a Super Bowl-winning coach and more playoff experience on the roster.

But this game didn’t prove to be too big for the Texans at all. In fact, it was there for the taking, but they just kept coming up short:

  • The offense started with 3 straight punts thanks to a holding penalty and a ticky-tack illegal shift on Tank Dell that wiped out his 62-yard completion on a great throw from Stroud.
  • Backup kicker Matt Ammendola is a huge problem as he missed a 50-yard field goal with 20 seconds before halftime. The Jaguars then hit a 57-yard bomb to Christian Kirk at the 1-yard line with 1 second left, 1-of-4 completions the Jaguars hit for 42+ yards, then tried to run it in with Travis Etienne, but the Texans snuffed it out. Houston still trailed 13-7 at the half.
  • Despite Jacksonville’s numbers on takeaways, the only turnover in the game was an interception by Trevor Lawrence in the third quarter.
  • Leading 14-13, Houston corner Tavierre Thomas was flagged twice for defensive pass interference on third downs to help Jacksonville score a touchdown and 2-point conversion pass, which both went to Calvin Ridley. Jacksonville led the rest of the game.

In the end, it wasn’t turnovers or the moment being too big for this Houston team. It was a bad backup kicker and an ass kicking up front as Josh Allen got the best of Laremy Tunsil.

It looked like Stroud had another game-winning drive in the works in a 24-21 game, but a sack from Allen at the Jacksonville 37 set up a 2nd-and-19. After a short completion, Stroud faced 3rd-and-12. He extended the play for a very long time but eventually threw incomplete with 34 seconds left. That was a bummer as he might have considered scrambling to at least gain some yards for the kicker.

The Texans still felt a 58-yard field goal was a better choice than 4th-and-12, and maybe they were right about that. It’s a tough call. Ammendola kicked it straight this time, but it was too short, and it hit the crossbar before bouncing the wrong way for Houston. Game over. That’s why those few yards Stroud could have gained on a run would have been important.

Ammendola was with the Chiefs for a couple of games last year when Harrison Butker was injured, and if they had to stick with him the rest of the season, I’m not sure the Chiefs win the Super Bowl. He’s just not a good kicker and is an emergency backup for a reason. I’m not sure what the Texans can do there, but he’s going to be a problem if any other games come down to his leg.

For Jacksonville (8-3), a No. 1 seed is still possible with this big win that makes the division title likely. They won in the trenches and Lawrence made some big throws with Ridley delivering the way they envisioned when they made that move. I’m still not sold it’s a team you can count on in January, but this was a good win after the way things usually go when the Jags play Houston.

Chiefs at Raiders: The Second Half Slump Ends

I don’t know if the Chiefs are “back” on offense but trailing 14-0 and winning 31-17 is a very Kansas City thing. The start of this game was shocking as the Raiders moved the ball up and down the field on this top-ranked defense to take a 14-0 lead. It would have been 17-0 if Daniel Carlson didn’t pull a 30-yard field goal.

The Raiders had 221 yards of offense on 3 drives and rookie Aidan O’Connell was carving them up. Josh Jacobs, who has struggled all year behind this line, hit a 63-yard touchdown run.

But the Chiefs adjusted, and the Raiders finished with a field goal and 137 yards on their final 7 drives – an impressive turnaround for the defense.

Once Kansas City’s offense settled down, they scored 4 touchdowns and a field goal on their final 7 drives. With players like Jerick McKinnon and Kadarius Toney out, it felt like the Chiefs did a better job of getting the ball to their best players instead of trying to share the ball with anyone, including the bad targets. MVS only had one target on a catch that lost a yard. Justin Watson, who had 11 targets against the Eagles, only had one catch and it was a broken play touchdown after Robert Spillane dumped him on his ass in the end zone and no one bothered to pick him up.

Meanwhile, Rashee Rice had 8 catches for 107 yards and a touchdown in his best game of the season (despite 2 more drops). Travis Kelce was very good again with 6 catches for 91 yards. Isiah Pacheco handled some of the receiving with McKinnon out as he caught all 5 targets for 34 yards and scored 2 touchdowns. Mahomes efficiently passed for 298 yards on 27-of-34 passing.

But most importantly, the Chiefs ended their 3-game drought of not scoring after halftime. They scored a season-high 17 points after halftime in this game. It was only the second time all year where the Chiefs scored more than 10 points after halftime.

With the offense thriving and the Raiders struggling after their hot start, the Chiefs barely had to sweat the final quarter this week, winning comfortably for a change.

We’ll see the Chiefs next Sunday night in Green Bay in what could be a better challenge if Jordan Love is showing real improvement. But the Chiefs accomplished some good things in this game in showing they can still come back from 14-point deficits by getting hot on offense, and they can score after halftime too.

Steelers at Bengals: Shove It Up Your Arse, Matt Canada

What a fitting outcome. Immediately after firing offensive coordinator Matt Canada, the Steelers finally had their first 400-yard game on offense since the 2020 regular season. They had one in the playoffs that year against the Browns, but this ended a 45-game drought under Canada, and a 58-game streak that was the second longest regular-season drought without 400 yards by any offense in the last 30 years.

The very first play of the game was like one big “fuck you” to Matt Canada. The Steelers went play-action and Kenny Pickett threw deep down the middle of the field to tight end Pat Freiermuth for a 24-yard gain. Exactly the kind of things the Steelers never wanted to do under Canada despite how much sense it makes to do. Freiermuth would finish with 9 catches for 120 yards. Pickett passed for 278 yards, the 2nd-highest game of his career and easily his most in a win.

But to make it fitting for the brand, the Steelers only scored 16 points and had to sweat out the final quarter of a one-score game with Jake Browning in his first career start for the Bengals. This happened in a game where the Steelers outgained the Bengals 421-222 in yards, the first time all year Pittsburgh outgained its opponent. That’s the reminder that the offense still has some flaws that even Canada’s absence won’t fix.

While Pickett was dealing early, his accuracy was an issue later. But that may not have mattered if Diontae Johnson didn’t have one of the worst first quarters I’ve ever seen from a player. First he caught a screen, broke a tackle, but somehow ran backwards to lose 5 yards to kill the opening drive. Then he dropped a 15-yard touchdown that Mike Tomlin should have challenged as Johnson’s third foot was down and the play should have been a score. By not challenging, Tomlin watched Jaylen Warren cough up a fumble on a play where Johnson showed no effort at all:

Just a brutal start that cost the Steelers points, which is why they trailed 7-3 at halftime. Meanwhile, Browning finished his first start with 227 yards, 4 sacks, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception. I’ve seen a lot of backup quarterbacks play over the years. Some were absolutely terrible, including Caleb Hanie, Craig Krenzel, Ryan Lindley, Curtis Painter, and Keith Null. Browning did not look that bad to me. He could even be serviceable if he gets some experience, because some of his mistakes like holding the ball too long are simply not having the reps under his belt. He did get lucky on a couple of tipped balls that still found their way to Ja’Marr Chase (4 catches for 81 yards), but all in all, Browning wasn’t a disaster.

But the Bengals’ season is over without Joe Burrow. It’s easy to see that much. Browning had his shot in a 13-7 game with just over 6:00 left, but T.J. Watt sacked him on third down for a three-and-out. The Steelers added a field goal, the Bengals matched it, but Pittsburgh recovered the onside kick and wisely ran with the ball for 4 seconds to get it to the two-minute warning. With the Bengals already out of timeouts, the game ended there.

As someone who lost several parlays with Steelers Over 19.5 points failing, the 16 points was definitely the most disappointing part of this game for Pittsburgh. But at least the offense made things happen, they used the tight end the way they should have been doing since 2021, and Pickett started the game really sharp.

But I’ll hold my breath that 400-yard games will become a frequent occurrence with this group going forward. Remember, Pickett’s only game in his career with 30 points scored was against the Bengals last year. Two of his 3 games with over 260 passing yards are against the Bengals now. This could be a Cincinnati thing, and the Bengals have been giving up a lot of passing volume for the last month and a half.

But with the upcoming schedule for the Steelers (7-4), they aren’t going to need 400 yards or even 21 points to win a lot of these games. Barring disaster, this team should be in the playoffs. But to be any sort of threat there, Pickett is going to have to continue to grow and play like he did to start this game.

And Diontae Johnson needs to pull his head out of his ass.

Buccaneers at Colts: Indy Continues to Score at Impressive Rate

If the Colts (6-5) make the playoffs, I could be convinced to vote Shane Steichen for Coach of the Year. He has achieved scoring consistency in a season where so few offenses are capable of doing so, and he’s doing it with Gardner Minshew as QB1.

He’s also making some brash calls that have paid off. Up 20-17 in the fourth quarter with 9:11 left, Steichen went for it on a 4th-and-1 at the Tampa 49. It was an aggressive deep pass on a play-fake too, and it was good for 30 yards. Three plays later, Jonathan Taylor was in the end zone for his second touchdown and the Colts used that drive to provide the winning margin.

Tampa Bay lost Baker Mayfield to an early injury on a quarterback sneak, which almost never happens, but he did return. He threw a pair of touchdowns to Mike Evans, but a couple of 3rd-down sacks killed Tampa Bay on its final drives. Mayfield was stripped near midfield with 1:29 left to end the game at 27-20.

The Buccaneers (4-7) are fading to No. 11 in the NFC with the loss. The Colts are the No. 7 seed and would be taking a trip to Kansas City in a wild card game if the playoffs were this weekend. Imagine if they can repeat their Mahomes magic (19-13 and 20-17) in a game like that in the playoffs. But with the way the AFC is, expect many different teams to occupy the No. 7 and No. 2 seeds over the next few weeks. Hell, the No. 1 seed changed hands 5 times since Monday night.

But good for the Colts staying relevant in what could have easily been a lost season. We know they weren’t drafting a quarterback in 2024 anyway.

Saints at Falcons: The NFC South Battle You Expected

In the post-Drew Brees and Matt Ryan era of this rivalry, you have to admit this was a fitting game for first place in the NFC South. A game where both teams had multiple turnovers and looked like they were trying to give the game away.

The Saints got Derek Carr so they’d have an edge in games like this, but they must have forgot that he’s never won a playoff game in his career. Sure enough, in this one he was late on a throw that became a 92-yard pick-six for Atlanta, then he had a hilarious fumble while running in the open field that the Saints were lucky to recover.

The Falcons got Bijan Robinson to take the pressure off Desmond Ridder in this offense. It hasn’t worked as great as expected this year, but it did deliver on Sunday in the most important game so far for Atlanta. While Ridder did his best to make no one believe in him after 2 interceptions to Tyrann Mathieu, he made the throw of the game under pressure for a 26-yard touchdown to Robinson to expand on Atlanta’s 14-12 lead in the fourth quarter:

But of all the turnovers in the game, the biggest one may have been the one that preceded that second Robinson touchdown. The Saints were at midfield after Mathieu’s second pick, and they got into the red zone quickly. It was a struggle there all day as the offense kept settling for field goals, but Taysom Hill took off on a run that would have made it first-and-goal. He fumbled, and the Falcons recovered, setting up that 95-yard drive that ended with the Ridder to Robinson connection.

All the Saints could do from there was settle for another 39-yard field goal, which the Falcons matched to make it 24-15 with 1:47 left. Even in quasi-garbage time, Carr couldn’t get his offense in the end zone. Blake Grupe, one of the most anti-clutch kickers around right now, missed a 54-yard field goal with 30 seconds left to end this one. Also, how do you come up short on a 54-yard field goal indoors?

The Falcons (5-6) take a slight lead over the Saints (5-6) for the NFC South. But we could see another year where a team wins this division with a losing record. However, the schedule is still easy for both. This division is the sacrificial lamb to the NFC East runner-up on wild card weekend.

Browns at Broncos: Another Key Tiebreaker for Denver

Sean Payton’s rope-a-dope following a 1-5 start continues after another win over an AFC wild card contender that will give Denver a key tiebreaker for the playoffs. The Broncos (6-5) already have such a win over Buffalo that could mean a lot come January.

I was sure to not call it impressive, because I’m still not that impressed with this Denver team. Russell Wilson didn’t do anything to distance himself from the Taysom Hill comparisons after he threw for 134 yards, got an amazing touchdown catch from Adam Trautman, and he was in love with the run on this day as he carried the ball 11 times for 34 yards and a touchdown.

The Browns were stuck with rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson, who left the game spitting out blood after a tough hit. That put P.J. Walker in the game, though I’m a bit surprised Walker wasn’t the starter since he is more experienced and a veteran. You kind of wish Cleveland trusted him more, because the first play of the fourth quarter with Cleveland trailing 17-12 was a disaster. The Browns tried a little trickery with Elijah Moore doing a reverse to Pierre Strong, and it resulted in a huge fumble.

The Broncos had another short field (20 yards) and that was when Trautman made his incredible touchdown grab to make it 24-12. The Browns are not built to come back from deficits like that, so it was just a matter of more turnovers and a sack in the end zone for a safety to get to the 29-12 final.

The Browns lost 3 fumbles and that does not include the drive-ending safety, so Denver’s defense is continuing this takeaway rampage to fuel the offense. They can add another huge tiebreaker win next week if they win in Houston.

Cleveland (7-4) could start to unravel after a loss like this, but the Browns still have games against Chicago, Jets, and Bengals, so 10 wins is possible. Is it enough this year? We’ll see. The AFC is super tight right now, so these little head-to-head losses add up.

The wins are just adding up for Denver right now but don’t start making playoff plans just yet.

Patriots at Giants: Even the Kicker Sucks Ass for New England These Days

The 2023 Patriots are the first team since the 2000 Steelers to play in back-to-back games where they neither scored nor allowed more than 10 points. A 10-6 loss to the Colts in Germany was followed Sunday by a 10-7 road loss to the Giants. The last team to go 0-2 in back-to-back games when not allowing or scoring more than 10 points is the 1993 Patriots, coached by Bill Belichick’s mentor Bill Parcells. How nice.

This latest loss was comedy for the Patriots, who are now 2-9. Tommy DeVito had a 7.4 QBR for the Giants after taking another 6 sacks, but he still won the game and led his first game-winning field goal drive to break a 7-7 tie that seemed like it may not be broken by either offense.

How do you lose to a 7.4 QBR, the worst of any winning quarterback this year? Well, Mac Jones had a 7.2 QBR after another pair of interceptions, so he was benched at halftime for Bailey Zappe.

While Zappe immediately led a 60-yard touchdown drive to start the third quarter, it was the final score for New England. He didn’t throw a fake spike pick this time, but Zappe was intercepted in the fourth quarter, and that led to an 8-yard game-winning field goal drive for DeVito. Yes, 8 yards.

Zappe had a chance from the 50 with 3:15 left in a 10-7 game, a dream scenario for a quarterback. The Patriots played for overtime, but rookie kicker Chad Ryland was shockingly wide left from 35 yards away with 3 seconds left. Game over. The Patriots spent a 4th-round pick on this kicker and he still sucks.

Belichick has only lost 6 games in his career with a missed clutch field goal. But this was the first time on a drive with Bailey Zappe, which matches the one time it’s happened with Mac Jones (2021 Buccaneers), which matches the one time it happened in two decades with Tom Brady (2012 Cardinals).

Everything has gotten worse in New England.

Rams at Cardinals: McVay’s Whipping Boys

The Rams completed another sweep of the Cardinals with a 37-14 win. I really did not expect to see Matthew Stafford throw 4 touchdown passes to Kyren Williams and Tyler Higbee (he had none going in), but that happened. It was also another quiet game for Cooper Kupp (3 catches for 18 yards) as he continues to deal with injury.

I don’t think Kyler Murray is making it that difficult on management to move on with a different quarterback in 2024. It’s just that Chicago may have the firepower in the draft to make sure they get the top prize, which I presume is still Caleb Williams.

Panthers at Titans: Turkey Coma Is Preferable

Once you get past Thanksgiving, the interest in games like this really drops. You had two rookie quarterbacks struggle to move the ball all day. Tennessee got a key 15-yard touchdown drive before halftime after a strip-sack of Bryce Young. After that it was just the Titans in survival mode with a 17-10 lead.

Carolina had four chances to tie it and never came close. Your typical Carolina issues with Young taking sacks and Miles Sanders somehow losing several yards on multiple runs. Just a bad line and the Titans took advantage. On 4th-and-6, the Panthers really thought a WR screen was going to save the day, but D.J. Chark, who isn’t even the best option for that play, gained no yards with 1:55 left and it was game over.

Next week: It’s really all about 49ers-Eagles in Week 13. You knew before the season this was the NFC Game of the Year, and hopefully it will live up to the hype. That means no quarterback injury on the first drive this time. And hopefully it doesn’t get decided by the kickers because we know the 49ers are screwed there.

NFL Stat Oddity: Week 8

~ Scott ~ 13 Comments

I’m not sure what was crazier in the NFL in Week 8. The Broncos finally beat the Chiefs, the Carolina Panthers finally won a game after trailing in the fourth quarter, or Sam Howell only took one sack against the Eagles. Several years have passed since two of those things happened, and Howell’s life has been shortened by several years this season.

Even the Chargers played a game where they led by at least 17 points (3 possessions) for the entire second half. That hadn’t happened in the last 60 games for them.

But Sunday was a streak-killing one around the league.

Just not for the 49ers, who got a 17th-straight game with a touchdown from Christian McCaffrey, their 3rd-straight loss, and Kyle Shanahan fell to 0-37 when trailing by at least 8 points in the fourth quarter. Business as usual there.

But we have a lot of games to cover, and there were 9 games with a comeback opportunity this week. We also had a pair of double-digit deficit comebacks after having none in Week 7 as the Colts (17-7) and Commanders (14-3) blew early leads.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Chiefs at Broncos: Things to Do in Denver When Your Streaks Are Dead

It was bound to happen eventually. The Chiefs would have a bad game, and their streak would be over. Which streak? Well, how about all of them?

  • 16 straight wins vs. Denver Broncos (longest active streak vs. one team) – OVER
  • 40 straight games without losing by more than 4 points (NFL record) – OVER
  • 40 straight games without losing by more than 7 points (4th-longest streak ever) – OVER
  • 40 straight games with a fourth-quarter/overtime lead or tie – OVER
  • 16 straight road division game wins (longest team streak in NFL history) – OVER
  • Patrick Mahomes – 35 straight games with a touchdown pass, including playoffs (longest active streak) – OVER
  • Patrick Mahomes – 16 straight road division game wins as starter (2nd-longest streak for starting quarterback behind only Joe Montana, 20) – OVER

Mahomes was also reportedly 25-0 against teams who were 2 games below .500 before Sunday, though I’ve never put much stock in anything based on record at the time.

But the reason these streaks largely go back 40 games is that was the 27-3 loss to the Titans in 2021, the only game where Mahomes and the Chiefs lost wire-to-wire (never led). Well, Sunday in Denver was the second wire-to-wire loss for Mahomes and the Chiefs. It is only the 4th loss by more than 8 points for him.

Was it the weather? They have played in colder, and the snow didn’t materialize during the game. Was it Mahomes having the flu this weekend? He didn’t seem to be lacking in energy as he ran for his life throughout the game, which was a bigger issue itself.

It really is as simple as you can’t turn the ball over 5 times on the road and expect to win in this league. But in a weird twist, I came away from this game with more confidence in the Kansas City defense and less confidence in the offense going forward.

If you look at Denver’s offense in this game, while Russell Wilson passed for 3 touchdowns, he only had 114 yards on 19 attempts, and it gets worse when you consider he took 6 sacks for 27 yards and lost a fumble. That means the Chiefs held Wilson under 100 net passing yards twice in 17 days.

While Denver scored 24 points, those drives came on short fields where the offense only gained 39, 50, 10, and 10 yards. That’s 24 points on 109 yards. That’s ridiculous. Denver started at the 50 or better on every scoring drive.

This is why the turnovers hurt so much, and the Kansas City defense did its best to mitigate them:

  • Turnover No. 1 was a bad one as Marquez Valdes-Scantling fumbled a completion in Denver territory, which led to a 50-yard touchdown drive for the Broncos.
  • Turnover No. 2 was a Mahomes interception that ended up not mattering since the Chiefs stopped Wilson on a 4th-down run, and the Chiefs were 5 yards ahead of where they were before the pick 90 seconds later.
  • Turnover No. 3 was a strip-sack of Mahomes in the red zone, which was big, but Wilson also lost a fumble on a sack, and the Chiefs got a 56-yard field goal out of it, so it may have been a 4-point mistake at most.
  • The Chiefs blocked a 38-yard field goal to start the third quarter, which was another mini-turnover for Denver.
  • Turnover No. 4 was the killer as Mecole Hardman muffed a punt when the Chiefs were going to get the ball back in a 14-9 game with 11:15 to play. Instead, the Broncos had a 10-yard touchdown drive to go up 21-9.
  • Turnover No. 5 was moot when you’re throwing up a prayer on 4th-and-27, don’t get the flag for contact on the receiver, and by catching the ball, Jusitn Simmons cost his team 6 yards in field position.

I know a particular group of people, likely from New England area codes, are going to say I took the blame off Mahomes. I didn’t. It was one of the worst games of his career. But any rational analysis will tell you his turnovers were not as impactful as the fumbles by his skill players, especially that muffed punt by a problematic player they shouldn’t have brought back.

For as bad as this was, I still think the Chiefs can pull this one out if they had the ball in a 14-9 game. The muff killed them and changed how the rest of the game would be played.

I also think the Chiefs erroneously fell in love with throws short of the sticks early in this game and paid for it as Denver was not biting this week. A minus-4 yard completion to Isiah Pacheco blew up the opening drive for a 3-and-out. A minus-1 yard completion to Rashee Rice, who later had a bad drop at midfield, on a 3rd-and-2 killed another drive at the goal line, leading to a field goal instead of a touchdown. Jerick McKinnon was also stuffed for a 3-yard loss on a 3rd-and-2 run in the red zone that led to another field goal.

The Chiefs didn’t attack enough this week, and by the time the game got into a 2-touchdown deficit, Mahomes was under pressure a lot. I also think going for the deep touchdown shot on 4th-and-2 at the Denver 26 with 7:40 left was highly questionable. The fact the target was Skyy Moore makes it downright laughable as he is the player you call plays for if you want the offense to die.

The Kansas City offense played very poorly in this one and Denver was good enough to take advantage. But unlike the other 3 blowout losses for the Chiefs (Super Bowl 55, 2021 Bills, 2021 Titans), this one was not a bad defensive performance too. I’m learning to trust that unit.

The problem coming into this season was who do they have to catch the ball after Kelce. Through 8 games, the answer looks like not much. With the trade deadline this Tuesday, they may need to do something drastic, because the way this season is going, it’s ending early in January with Mahomes trying to make a throw on 4th & 25+.

In a way, this could be a well-timed loss for the Chiefs. You don’t want everyone kissing your ass week after week, and sometimes it takes a good ass kicking to fix what’s wrong and improve. The way the Chiefs played to get to 6-1 was not good enough for a championship run. They need to be better than that, and we’ll see if the trip to Germany and a high-profile opponent like Miami can bring out their best, or if it only further shows they have taken a step back this year to the pack.

Time to start some new streaks, because they left them all behind in Denver in one of the ugliest performances of the Mahomes era.

I had an inkling ever since Sean Payton signed in Denver that this would be the game when the streak ends. But 24-9? Was never in my mind. And to think the Chiefs scored only 3 field goals on a day when DeAndre Hopkins caught 3 touchdowns…

Bengals at 49ers: Someone Let Them Know Beating Dallas Wasn’t the Super Bowl

Don’t look now, but the Bengals have moved up to No. 9 in the AFC, and they look more stable and reliable than the other 4-3 teams ahead of them (Steelers, Browns, and Jets). But the Bengals still trail those teams because they are 0-3 against AFC teams this season.

However, by winning in San Francisco, the Bengals completed a 4-0 sweep of the NFC West. This was the biggest one with the 49ers being the best team, or so we thought before what is now a 3-game losing streak with Brock Purdy’s turnover issues catching up to the offense.

That was always the main issue going into this season. What if those interceptions that Purdy gets away with start getting caught? Well, concussion related or not, the mistakes are turning into turnovers and the team is losing games that were within a score in the fourth quarter over it.

This one also exposed the defense some more as Joe Burrow was 28-of-32 for 283 yards and 3 touchdowns in one of his best games of his career. The way Kirk Cousins was quick and decisive with good protection on Monday night seemed to carry over for the way the Bengals played this game on the road. Even the running game was strong with Joe Mixon rushing for 87 yards and a touchdown.

Despite suffering a concussion on Monday night and getting cleared in record time under the new protocol, it would be hard to say that was the issue for Purdy here. He led the team with 57 rushing yards, which is a separate issue as it makes you ask why Christian McCaffrey (12 carries for 54 yards) wasn’t more dominant on the ground. But Purdy had solid passing numbers without Deebo Samuel in a 17-10 game that was about to go to the fourth quarter with the 49ers in the red zone.

That’s when his Mr. Irrelevant-looking mistake bit him as he tried to throw a pass near the sideline and it was intercepted and almost returned the distance for a touchdown. The Bengals did not turn that one into any points, but they intercepted Purdy on the next play from scrimmage too, and that one set up a 17-yard touchdown drive in one play after Ja’Marr Chase pulled in a score to make it 24-10.

Purdy threw a touchdown to McCaffrey, his second of the game, but the Bengals were flawless in a 4-minute offense situation with a 78-yard touchdown drive that consumed 5:18 and put the team back on top 31-17 with 2:54 left. Purdy was strip-sacked by Trey Hendrickson, then later padded the stats a bit with two meaningless completions for 69 yards.

No team steps up for every big game, but the Bengals answered the call here with excellent performances in the passing game, running game, and for the defense to hold down what was another elite offense with a bunch of big turnovers.

Eagles at Commanders: Almost a Repeat of Last Time

I guess I’m still stuck on what the 2022 Eagles were, because both Washington matchups this month burned me on predictions. I thought the Eagles would blow them out at least once, yet this game almost went to overtime at 31-31 just like the first game did. For some reason, Sam Howell turns into Steve Young when he plays this defense, which does not have the same pass rush as last year’s Super Bowl team.

Fortunately, these Eagles have an even better version of A.J. Brown as he just set the NFL record with his 6th-consecutive 125-yard receiving game. He barely hit the number (130), but it was enough to score 2 touchdowns and help this team to a 7-1 start.

But Washington did not make it easy again on the Eagles, who were even stopped on the Brotherly Shove after a Jalen Hurts fumble on 1st-and-goal at the 1, and they had to come back from a 24-17 deficit in the fourth quarter. DeVonta Smith caught a 38-yard touchdown to tie the game in his best game in many weeks, then the defense came up with an interception to put the Eagles at the 7-yard line for a short touchdown drive that ended with a pass to Julio Jones, who decided to dress as a red zone threat for Halloween.

Howell had a lot of good moments in this game, and it showed the potential he has if he can cut down on the sacks and other mistakes. But there were a few too many pivotal moments that went against him and the Commanders. The Philadelphia comeback from a 14-3 deficit started after Howell, who hit 20 of his first 21 passes, misfired on a 4th-and-1 pass late in the first half. Later, he threw the pick to Reed Blankenship that put Washington down 31-24, then on a 4th-and-8 at the Philadelphia 40, his pass was low and would have been a very tough catch for Terry McLaurin.

Then after getting one more chance to tie the game or possibly take the lead, Howell suffered his only sack of the game on a 4th down when Haason Reddick got to him and knocked the ball out, setting up the Eagles for a 16-yard touchdown drive to put it away at 38-24.

Washington still got another touchdown to screw the Eagles -7 bettors in a 38-31 game, but it was too late. At the very least, Howell did not tie records for the longest streaks in NFL history taking 4 or 5 sacks in a game. But the Eagles still completed the sweep of Washington, now a 3-5 team.

Jaguars at Steelers: Mike Tomlin’s Boogeyman

Nothing is scarier to Mike Tomlin’s Steelers than the Jacksonville Jaguars getting off the team bus in Pittsburgh. In franchise history, the Steelers have only been swept at home in a season twice, and both times it was the Jaguars against Tomlin in 2007 and 2017.

The good news for Steelers fans: Don’t worry about a Jacksonville sweep happening this year, because this team won’t have a home playoff game.

The Steelers (4-3) may not have any playoff games if they keep playing like this. The ironic thing about those Jacksonville sweeps is that in both seasons, the Jaguars had the kind of offense that is more of what the Steelers aspire to be. Physical, strong running game that sets up the pass, tough quarterback, and a solid offensive line.

In 2023, the Jaguars are again what the Steelers wish they can be on offense. Trevor Lawrence was the first quarterback taken in his draft class, he struggled as a rookie, but he improved last year with a new set of talented receivers. They used a first-round pick on running back Travis Etienne, hoping to turn his college production into pro production alongside his Clemson teammate.

While no one had Kenny Pickett anywhere near the level of Lawrence as a prospect, he was the first quarterback taken in 2022, and there was a thought he could improve in his second season alongside a talented receiving duo (George Pickens and Diontae Johnson), and the team used the pick right before Etienne in 2021 to take Najee Harris.

But on Sunday, it couldn’t be any clearer that Pittsburgh’s plan is failing while the Jaguars (6-2) are on the longest active winning streak in the NFL at 5 games.

  • Lawrence passed for 292 yards in the rain and survived the pass rush of the Steelers despite 3 sacks on quick pressures his line is known to allow.
  • Pickett was 10-of-16 for 73 yards and was knocked out of the game in the first half with a rib injury.
  • It took the Steelers 5 drives to gain a first down.
  • Etienne had the game’s longest play with a 56-yard touchdown catch while Harris had 55 yards on 12 touches.
  • George Pickens’ 22-yard touchdown catch was his only catch in the game while Christian Kirk, Calvin Ridley, and tight end Evan Engram combined for 20 catches for 217 yards.

It was Pittsburgh’s miserable offensive performance that wasted a defense that had 3 takeaways, and the Steelers were still trailing 17-3 with that 3-0 edge in the turnover department.

Enter Mitch Trubisky for Pickett, and one of the things a good backup should do is manage the game and not make the fatal mistakes to blow it. But Trubisky has a higher interception rate (2.8%) in Pittsburgh than he did in Chicago (2.3%) as he was careless with the ball again.

After Pittsburgh’s defense sacked Lawrence out of field-goal range in the fourth quarter, Trubisky had the ball in a 17-10 game with 10:14 left. But he quickly threw a poor pass deep that was picked off. The Jaguars had no problem turning that into another field goal, and taking a 20-10 lead with 4:35 left. The Steelers turned it over on downs, and that was basically a wrap. Trubisky threw another pick on a Hail Mary to end the game and make the turnover battle look closer at 3-2 Pittsburgh, but that is still no excuse for the Steelers to waste as many drives as they did on offense.

Pickett or Trubisky, I’m not sure there’s a difference or it matters right now. Not as long as Matt Canada is calling a pathetic offense and Tomlin seems to have no input on how to fix it.

The Steelers could take advantage of a rookie quarterback (Tennessee’s Will Levis) on a short week this Thursday to win another home game. But when it comes to playing a legitimate contender with a great offense like the Chiefs or Eagles, we see how the Steelers get blown out in recent years. When they play a playoff-caliber team like Jacksonville, they usually fold in those games too with the offense struggling to do anything.

This team is stuck in purgatory, and until major changes come, they will not ascend to being anything better than that.

Rams at Cowboys: Early Knockout

I miss the old days when the Cowboys had normal game scripts. This one was over when CeeDee Lamb caught his first touchdown to give Dallas a 26-3 lead with 12:45 left in the second quarter. Never mind the 43-20 scorigami that followed.

That’s right, it was a 23-point game just minutes into the second quarter. Oddly enough, the Dallas offense was the least impressive part of this run due to some sacks that made them look underwhelming. The special teams kicked ass with a 58-yard field goal, a punt blocked for a safety, and a 63-yard kick return on the free kick.

The defense intercepted Matthew Stafford for a 30-yard touchdown, then Micah Parsons sacked him on a third down before the punt block.

This was just an ass-kicking with the Rams never getting closer than 16 points the rest of the way. Stafford didn’t finish the game with a thumb injury that may have gotten worse on a play where he caught a 2-point conversion. Yes, he caught a pass.

It was the kind of mess I thought we’d see more often from the Rams this year given the roster limitations. But if Stafford is hurt and they already seem to have broken the Cooper Kupp connection (under 30 yards in back-to-back games), then what good is this team going forward?

Dallas just has to stay the course, because the talent is there to put it all together at the right time. Beating the Eagles next week would be a huge statement.

Patriots at Dolphins: Tua Moves to 6-0 vs. Belichick

I have said before that it’s kind of annoying that Tua Tagovailoa gets to be the first and only quarterback to go 5-0 against Bill Belichick, because he’s been facing the weakest of the New England teams, and he hasn’t even done a whole lot in those games (4 TD, 3 INT). He just avoids the big mistakes and his defense forces the Patriots into them with some huge fumbles.

But on Sunday, Tagovailoa had his best game yet against Belichick to move to 6-0 against the Patriots in his career. He passed for 324 yards and 3 touchdowns, the first time he had over 270 yards and more than 1 touchdown pass against New England.

But much like in Week 2, this was a 24-17 game in the fourth quarter with the Patriots (+8.5) hanging around. And just like in Week 2, the Dolphins hit a big play to turn the Patriots back after they made it a one-score game with Mac Jones finding JuJu Smith-Schuster on a 3-yard touchdown pass on fourth down.

Back in the day, the Patriots would force Miami into a mistake and get the ball back so you know who would have real chances to complete the comeback. But that’s rarely the case with these new Patriots.

Sure enough, the Patriots allowed Miami to convert a 3rd-and-9 to Tyreek Hill at midfield, then gave up a 31-yard touchdown to Jaylen Waddle on a 3rd-and-1 with 2:43 left to effectively end the game at 31-17.

This is the kind of thing that would never happen to New England in the dynasty years. Literally never, cause I had to look it up seeing as how the Dolphins did something similar in Week 2 when Raheem Mostert had a long touchdown run to go up 2 touchdowns on the Patriots.

We always hear about Belichick being so good at limiting the big plays, playing his bend-but-don’t-break style of defense, and making teams earn it on long drives. I thought allowing a 30-yard touchdown in a game you’re trailing by 1 score that makes it a 2-score game would look really bad. I looked it up, and sure enough, this never happened once to the Patriots in the Tom Brady years in 2001-19. But since, it’s happened 4 times now, including both games against the 2023 Dolphins. It also happened against the 2021 Colts and 2022 Bills, so that’s 4 times in the post-Brady years, none in the Brady era. You can’t make this stuff up.

Even if you drop it to 20 yards so that it’s all touchdowns from outside the red zone, it’s 2 (2006 Jets, 2017 Chiefs) vs. 4 times.

Belichick is the coach, so he has to take some blame for this. But it’s another one of those things that I refuse to credit Brady for not allowing to happen during his two decades. He didn’t play defense, unless you think he was a witch that had the power to will his teammates from the bench to do things for him.

I think it’s more of the Patriots don’t have defenders worth a damn like they used to step in and make a play, and it’s also the divisional opponents that have gotten so much more talented on offense (Bills and Dolphins, at least) that are doing this to them better than anyone.

Down 14 inside of 3:00, the Patriots went 4-and-out to end this one, dropping them to 2-6 in a division that now has the 6-2 Dolphins, 5-3 Bills, and 4-3 Jets.

New England is dead last in the AFC going into Week 9.

Browns at Seahawks: Late Pick Dooms Cleveland

On a list of hard-fought wins, this one would have to rank highly this season for Seattle. Both quarterbacks threw 2 interceptions, and it could have easily been more for both with the way the defenses were flashing all day long.

But it was P.J. Walker’s late pick that doomed the Browns. I get why they wanted to throw on a 3rd-and-3 at their 41 with the Seahawks still having a few timeouts and it was going to be the 2-minute warning after that play. But you have to protect the ball better, and Jamal Adams was able to deflect it to a teammate for a huge interception that set up Geno Smith at the Seattle 43 in a 20-17 game.

We talk about Geno not having a great record with comebacks, but he made the Cleveland defense fold like a cheap suit on this drive. Noah Fant had a 27-yard gain, and with a good block, Jaxon Smith-Njigba was able to spring free for a 9-yard touchdown with 38 seconds left to take a 24-20 lead.

This one probably goes to overtime at worst if Walker did anything but throw that pick. He still had a chance to do something with 38 seconds and 2 timeouts, but the Seahawks sacked him on third down, then he threw incomplete on 4th-and-19 to end the game.

Thanks to the 49ers (5-3) losing their third in a row, the Seahawks (5-2) are in first place in the NFC West. They won’t meet until Thanksgiving, but it should be interesting to see where this race goes with the Seahawks going to Baltimore next.

The Browns kind of stole a couple from the 49ers and Colts the last two weeks, so giving up one here in Seattle only feels fair for this 4-3 team that has lost some luster with the defense the last couple of games.

Texans at Panthers: Everyone’s a Winner Now

I was all about the Carolina Panthers (+3.5) getting their first win as my upset pick this week. Thought we would see more offense than 13-12, but the Panthers had no running game to speak of with the backs accounting for 20 carries for 33 yards. Bryce Young also took 6 sacks, so it was a miserable day for the offensive line.

Still, we rarely see NFL games with this much offensive struggle. It was the first game since 2018 Bills-Titans to end with neither team reaching 14 points and 230 yards offense. That game also happened to end 13-12.

The Texans punted on 6-of-9 drives and lost a fumble in the third quarter. But after taking a 13-12 lead when C.J. Stroud rushed for a 1-yard touchdown on a fourth-down play, the Texans never put the game away. They also missed a big 2-point conversion that would have made it 15-12 and protected against a field goal.

But this set the stage for the Panthers to end one of the league’s most embarrassing streaks. Since 2018, the Panthers had lost 56 games in a row when trailing in the fourth quarter. Their opportunity here would be the easiest comeback type there is with a 1-point deficit and an entire quarter to do something about it.

But the streak did finally end after a bumpy ride to get there with Young taking a pair of 3rd-down sacks in the quarter to end drives. But after the Texans stalled out inside the Carolina 40, Young got the ball back at his own 9 with 6:17 left to have his moment. He made some easy plays, and then overcame another sack by getting a screen pass to Adam Thielen, then fitting a ball in a tight window on a 4th-and-2 at midfield. The running game finally made a positive contribution with Chuba Hubbard using 3 runs to make a first down and burn precious clock.

The Panthers consumed the final 6:17 off the clock and set up the field goal as the final play. After the Texans were penalized for illegally trying to disrupt the kick, the 23-yard field goal from Eddy Pineiro was finally through the upright and the 56-game losing streak was over.

The advanced stats hate sacks, so you’ll probably see Stroud come out higher than Young in this game, but I think Young hung in there well on a day he had no running game, minimal protection, and the Panthers started 3 drives inside their own 10, including the one to win the game.

Maybe with a win in the books, we’ll see some better play out of the Panthers going forward. At least I can’t keep dogging them for always losing this kind of game like they did the last 5 years.

Ravens at Cardinals: Onside Kick Leads to Absurd Backdoor Cover for Awful Team

I guess the stats won’t reflect it since there were 27 points scored in the final 10 minutes alone, but I really thought this was a poor offensive game for both teams. It’s funny how the Ravens could put on one of the best performances by any team this season in stomping a solid Detroit roster last week but send them to Arizona and they couldn’t even walk away with a double-digit win like every other Arizona opponent has since Week 4.

Lamar Jackson did not stack big games this week as he only passed for 157 yards, and he would have been 0-for-5 on targets to Odell Beckham Jr. if not for a defensive penalty flag. Zay Flowers had 5 catches for 19 yards.

Like I said, this was largely a dud with two Joshua Dobbs interceptions leading to short field touchdown drives for the Ravens. But even after they led 31-15 with 2:51 left, the Ravens (-9.5) couldn’t cover the spread. They gave up a touchdown, stopped the 2-point conversion to keep it 31-21, but the Cardinals recovered a rare onside kick. We get so few of those in an NFL season, and this one was a waste as it only served to piss off Baltimore bettors. Matt Prater hit a 47-yard field goal with 26 seconds left to make it 31-24, and of course they didn’t recover a second onside kick.

Should have known better that it was too good to be true that the Ravens could win back-to-back games by double digits.

Saints at Colts: Defense Fails Again for Indy

In a season where so many teams are struggling to score, I appreciate Shane Steichen for getting his Colts to score 20+ points every single week. They did it again by halftime in this one, even leading 17-7 at one point, as the New Orleans defense is losing its shine more and more each week.

Unfortunately, the Colts are one of the worst defensive teams in the NFL, and this game was one of the lower points of the season as they made Derek Carr look like a viable deep passer. Carr finished 19/27 for 310 yards and 2 touchdowns, including 153 yards on 3 catches by Rashid Shaheed.

This was an offensive explosion for the 2023 Saints while the Colts were rough in the second half. Gardner Minshew avoided the strip-sacks this week, but he was picked near the goal line in the third quarter, then both fourth quarter drives when the Colts were only down by one touchdown failed. The Saints put it away with a field goal after Shaheed’s second 50-yard catch of the game converted a 3rd-and-13 situation with 2:52 left.

Maybe the Saints (4-4), the preseason division favorite, are still the right team to back in the NFC South this year. But this was already the 4th home game this season where the Colts gave up more than 28 points.

If that sounds like a lot for Week 8, that’s because 4 home games allowing 29+ points is the most by any Colts team in a full season since 1997 (4).

Jets at Giants: Sucking on Offense Everything Everywhere All at Once

If you thought it was pretty bad last week when the Giants and Commanders played a game with more possessions (27) than points (21), this one was even worse. Or does sucking more on offense actually make this the better game since the expectations were for them to be bad, and it somehow blew those away?

This is the kind of nonsense you grow to expect from The Battle of New York. This game had a whopping 34 possessions and 23 points, meaning the last two Giants games have had a total of 44 points on 61 possessions (0.72 points per drive). This team is single-handedly killing offense in 2023.

And yet, the Giants should have won this game in regulation despite having minus-8 net passing yards, something that hadn’t been done in the NFL in a win since the 1977 Eagles did it against the Giants (of course). The Giants lost Tyrod Taylor to a rib injury, backup Tommy Devito had time between his Jersey Boys rehearsals to score a rushing touchdown, and the Giants were on track to win this game despite punting 12 times.

That just goes to show how bad Zach Wilson is. After he took a 15-yard sack on 4th-and-10 with 1:26 left, the ending should have been nearly routine despite the Jets having 2 timeouts left.

But Brian Daboll, who should never get another Coach of the Year vote ever again, screwed up. He had a 4th-and-1 at New York’s 17 with 28 seconds left. You run the ball in this situation. It’s a 70% conversion rate flat, and even higher if you go with any kind of quarterback sneak. You don’t kick a field goal and leave them time in a 6-point game to beat you with a miracle touchdown. At worst, you don’t convert, and they’ll still play for the field goal anyway and overtime. That’s why you take the slight risk and go for the yard to end the game.

He chose field goal, and Graham Gano added to his growing list of chokes with a wide left 35-yard kick on a day that was not ideal weather on a field with a shit surface. One of the worst decisions of the season.

But little did anyone expect Wilson to make the Giants pay. He found his receivers twice for gains of 29 yards each, and he was able to get the offense ready for a spike with 1 second left. Greg Zuerlein was not going to miss his 35-yard field goal, and he sent the game to overtime. Stunning collapse.

If there was ever a game where you didn’t want to go first on offense in overtime, this should have been the one. The Giants had 3 plays all game that gained 10 yards, and one was a 17-yard run by Taylor, who was out. And yet, Daboll elected to receive first. What did he think was going to happen? They were going to magically put together a touchdown drive against one of the best defenses in the league to end it?

The Giants punted for the 13th time in the game, because all it took was a holding penalty on first down to completely kill the drive with a 1st-and-20.

To Wilson’s credit, he did convert a big 3rd-and-10 to avoid going three-and-out again for the Jets. Then a 30-yard defensive pass interference penalty set up Zuerlein for the 33-yard game-winning field goal to end this one 13-10.

I said on Saturday this game was most likely to end in a push with the Jets winning by 3. I think the Jets are one of the worst 4-3 teams I’ve ever seen, but the Giants deserved to lose this one with the stupid things they did late in the game.

Falcons at Titans: Farewell to the Ryan Tannehill Era

When your quarterback is in his mid-30s, coming off a bad year, and your team drafts a quarterback with a top 50 pick, that veteran’s days are probably numbered. Will Levis plummeted on draft night after some thought he could go in the top 4, but it was only a matter of time before he’d get a shot in Tennessee, especially with Ryan Tannehill’s extensive injury history.

That moment came in Week 8 and Will Levis joined Fran Tarkenton and Marcus Mariota as the only quarterbacks in NFL history to throw 4 touchdown passes in their debut. Let’s hope his career turns out better than Mariota’s did.

I loved the prop of DeAndre Hopkins scoring his first touchdown as no one was more due than him, but 3 in one game with the rookie quarterback? Tannehill had 2 touchdown passes on 158 attempts this year.

Now that does sound like something a classic Atlanta defense would do against a rookie, but I was still surprised at the Titans having that many big plays. Levis had three 30-yard touchdown passes in this game.

Was every ball perfectly thrown or against tight coverage? No, but I think you have to be fairly encouraged after a debut like this, especially with how little the Titans were getting out of their passing game with Tannehill. I think Mike Vrabel needs to stick with the rookie even when Tannehill is healthy.

As for the Falcons, they pulled Desmond Ridder for Taylor Heinicke in this one, or was it a concussion concern? Either way, Ridder wasn’t getting the job done and lost another fumble.

Heinicke had some shots in the fourth quarter to lead a game-winning touchdown drive, but it didn’t work out either time. I think the Falcons should have ran the ball on 4th-and-1 at their own 22 with 1:33 left just to make sure they’d get the first down before hurrying up, but Arthur Smith had other ideas.

Now the Falcons have quarterback questions, and the Titans have some new hope on their side. Levis had as many touchdown passes in his debut as Ridder had in his first 7 starts combined (4). Levis also had as many touchdown passes in his debut as Kenny Pickett’s best 3 games combined (2+1+1), and Pickett could be Levis’ next opponent if he is cleared to play Thursday night.

We’ll see how it goes, but Game No. 1 was a smashing success for the rookie.

Vikings at Packers: Et tu, Kirk? 😦

I have taken my share of shots and jokes at Kirk Cousins’ expense over the years, but I am truly upset that his season just likely ended to an Achilles tear after he was playing some of his best ball and may have led this team to a wild card position.

For all of Cousins’ shortcomings, he is still one of the most accurate quarterbacks in the league, and he’s been a gamer with only one game missed to injury for a positive COVID test in his career. In a league where so many quarterbacks are struggling, having someone you could reliably expect to throw for 250 yards and 2 touchdowns means something.

Right, Green Bay fans? An accurate quarterback matters, and Jordan Love just isn’t that guy yet. He may never be. But it’s also true that this experiment of surrounding Love with a ton of young skill players is not working out for Matt LaFleur. Christian Watson’s big touchdown run from last year is looking like a fluke. Even the running game failed as Love led the Packers with 34 rushing yards in this game, another slow start for the offense that saw Green Bay trailing 10-3 at halftime.

The Packers never got closer than 24-10 in the fourth quarter, but that doesn’t mean there weren’t multiple opportunities to make this a game. The worst part was after Cousins was injured (non-contact) in the fourth quarter, the backup came in and coughed it up on a strip-sack just 3 plays into the drive. The Packers immediately started in the red zone, but just like the previous drive, they turned it over on downs after Love was unable to finish the job. A 15-yard scramble on 4th-and-16? Please.

At 2-5, Green Bay looks effectively done for the playoff race this year. At 4-4 with such a favorable remaining schedule, I’m not sure what the Vikings do. Trade for Kyler Murray? Eh, I don’t know about that one. It’s just unfortunate as this is the year that will be remembered for the quarterback Achilles injuries, Cousins and Rodgers. One was going to be an MVP candidate, and the other was actually leading the league in touchdown passes the week he was injured.

Just the most unfortunate part of this game, and if you’re a Green Bay fan, you know how good you had it when Brett Favre started 321 games in a row.

Bears at Chargers: NBC Gets the Dud It Deserved

Our 14th and final game is fittingly the Sunday night pillow fight between the Bears and Chargers, who both entered Week 8 as the No. 14 seed in their conference. Not only should this game have been flexed out of SNF, but it never should have made the prime-time schedule. I could have told you that in April or even in March when the Bears traded the top pick to Carolina.

I’m not convinced this is any more of a game if Justin Fields was the starter as the Bears had no answers for Justin Herbert’s passing (31-of-40 for 298 yards, 3 TD) while the offense neglected to throw to D.J. Moore in the second half against arguably the worst pass defense in the league.

Seriously, what kind of Chargers game has them with a 30-7 lead in the fourth quarter with not even a hint of a collapse around the corner? That was garbage, and I hope the NFL remembers that the next time they have the chance to flex out a bad game on what is supposed to be the prestigious spot in their weekly programming.

Instead, we had to listen to Mike Tirico and Cris Collinsworth talk up Tyson Bagent for 3 hours. Oh, the horror.

Next week: Bring on the legitimately big games. Chiefs-Dolphins, Seahawks-Ravens, Cowboys-Eagles, and Bengals-Bills are all part of the Week 9 schedule. I might have to actually get up before 10:00 AM for this one.