2026 NFL Stat Oddity: Week 2

NFL Stat Oddity 2026

This is a throwback to the 2010s when I used to post my NFL recap column (starting with Captain Comeback in 2011) on Tuesdays before I started doing it here for Monday morning. I learned you can do it a lot faster when you’re not trying to painstakingly recap the play-by-play on those critical drives, creating GIFs and all the other stuff I did to crank out super-long pieces every week.

But I had other work to finish for Monday, so this is a day later for hopefully the only time this season, and I also wanted to write about MNF as I really did anticipate that matchup between the Rams and Giants.

Naturally, the game was a bust after Jaxson Dart was knocked out on the first drive with a knee injury (sprained MCL, allegedly) that fortunately wasn’t a season-ending ligament tear.

But that was the story of this weekend. Quarterback injuries and the defenses fighting back in a big way after a record-setting scoring number in Week 1. Caleb Williams and Jayden Daniels were injured on freak-accident plays. The NFC already has been without Sam Darnold and Kyler Murray after they were injured early in Week 1, and the Falcons subjected us to watching Cooper Rush start for two weeks as a third-string quarterback.

That’s already six quarterbacks down in the NFC, and the only miracle is maybe none of them are season-ending injuries. Still, it’s a bummer as a lot of them are young players trying to lift their teams up to relevancy.

Meanwhile, things in the AFC felt like a return to normal:

  • Buffalo getting “Super Bowl bound! Best QB ever!” hype after blowing out a bad defense on TNF in September.
  • Kansas City winning a 33-30 overtime game where the passing game carried the team.
  • Bo Nix in his element, getting a fourth-quarter comeback after trailing 13-6.
  • The Chargers shitting their pants at home to lose 26-14 for the second week in a row.
  • The Dolphins looking like one of the worst teams ever in September before they inevitably find a way to the most meaningless 6 wins ever.
  • The Steelers looking totally lost on offense and embarrassing themselves in New England.
  • And the Baltimore Ravens choking away a double-digit lead at home.

Ooooo, and it’s alright and it’s comin’ on

We gotta get right back to where we started from

We’re back to normal. But I would point out this season is off to a slow start in close games. We had seven games with a comeback opportunity in Week 1, then eight this week. That’s 15/32 (46.9%). But there were six game-winning drives in Week 2, so that counts for something.

I’m not going to get too in the weeds about games from Sunday, but here are my thoughts on a difficult week for scoring and injuries. I said on Saturday in the predictions piece that these injuries are really mounting up at receiver, and when you throw in some rain in some of these games, it’s not that surprising it ended up being an offensive dud.

Minus Sunday night, of course.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Colts at Chiefs: Game of the Week

I don’t know if the Chiefs will win the Super Bowl this year. But after Sunday night and some of the things that have happened around the NFL, I’m back to believing they can. As long as you have Patrick Mahomes playing like this, you always have that chance.

After his return game was one of his least effective in his career from a passing standpoint, Mahomes ripped it all over the field on Sunday night, leading the offense to 523 yards in a 33-30 overtime win where he picked up his 11th multiple game-winning drive (mGWD; the NFL record is 12).

Mahomes threw for 382 yards despite some big drops from his top receivers. He came through in the clutch multiple times just as he did against the Colts last year in the only close game the 2025 Chiefs won (0-10 otherwise; 0-8 with Mahomes otherwise). So, there’s some déjà vu to this one as we can put to rest the Lou Anarumo angle after Mahomes beat his defense for the fifth year in a row.

But the arm looked healthy, accurate and decisive, and still the most clutch quarterback in the game as you saw on the 3rd-and-12 in overtime for a 30-yard gain to Tyquan Thornton, the savior in this offense with the flaws Rice and Worthy have. Then Travis Kelce also looked vintage with 9/101/1. Another impressive outing for Kenneth Walker too (178 YFS).

This was the most 2018-22 Chiefs game we’ve seen since 2023, and that’s also because of what happened on the other sides of the ball. It’s your classic Spags game: You give up 30 points to an offense that lost its best receiver (Pierce) early, you get no sacks on Daniel Jones, Jonathan Taylor had some nice runs, but you get some credit for not giving up a touchdown in overtime after the Colts turtled following the overturned fumble. I also agree with Mahomes that it’s great they overturned that as the refs controversy shit would be over the top the rest of the year.

But the Chiefs had a lot of penalties (8-86), more special teams errors, Butker missed a kick (but made the biggest ones). I guess the only thing missing was the obligatory fumble, but games like this is what made the Chiefs so fun to watch in 2018-22, and their absence from 2023-25 made things a difficult grind. Not that this wasn’t a grind and tough win too. It just feels different when the offense is moving like this.

But this is Kansas City, and as long as you have that quarterback upright, they can beat anyone anywhere. After watching Baltimore blow another lead at home, and after watching the Bills give up 31 to Houston and Detroit, are you really going to bet against Mahomes if it comes down to those matchups again?

Plenty of directions this season can go from here, but Sunday night proved that Mahomes can still get it done at the highest level, still can throw it deep when he needs to, and he can still run when he has to have it or to protect himself.

He’s still the best to do it.

Giants at Rams: Dodge Dart

(That’s a Kind of Like Spitting reference, FTR)

This game had so much upset potential with how good the Giants looked in Week 1, how bad the Rams were in Australia, then you throw in the two biggest non-quarterback injuries the Rams could least afford (Myles Garrett and Puka Nacua) and 0-2 was a real possibility for the Super Bowl favorites.

Then Jaxson Dart injured his knee on the opening drive, and it was as if the life was sucked out of the team, and not in a fun way (“Big Blue Meets Bonnie Blue”). Backup Jameis Winston is usually good for a couple of touchdowns and interceptions, but even he couldn’t get them into the end zone in a snoozer of a 28-6 final. I guess Australia might have just been the travel fatigue and that will be the worst version you see all year of this team.

My apologizes to Davante Adams for even questioning if he was washed, because he played one of the best games I’ve ever seen him have, barely missing 200 yards with two scores. With the way Stafford and Adams were shredding that defense, I’m not sure if it would have mattered if Dart played the whole game. Maybe that injury demoralized the whole team, but it’s more likely this game just showed there is still a wide gap between the two, and beating up Dallas in Week 1 isn’t indicative of a team ready for a deep run.

But it would have been fun to see what Dart could do against a real contender. I always joke about Dart’s rivalry with the blue medical tent because of his reckless play, but it’s hard to fault him for trying to throw from the pocket when he got injured. Just a bad collision after he got the ball away. The good news is he avoided the ACL from the early reports, so if it’s an MCL sprain, we’ll see him again soon. But what will the team’s record be by that point?

Didn’t see anything from Aaron Donald, but when you’re away from the game for that long, it’s going to take more than a game to shake off the rust. He’ll be fine. The Rams were nowhere near fully loaded and still crushed a team 28-6. That’s encouraging for the Super Bowl picks.

Still, the Dart injury was a bummer to end the week after mostly all bad games on Sunday.

Saints at Ravens: See, Jesse Minter IS a Harbaugh

You can’t even chalk this one up to more “Tyler Shough and Awe” in the fourth quarter. This is just what the Ravens do, year after year. I caught some flak earlier this year when I said the Ravens hiring Jesse Minter was like hiring a younger Harbaugh the way he’s stalked John and Jim around different jobs the last decade. He’s like a Harbaugh nepo baby without the blood genes.

But I was told he’s younger and things would be different. Yet, in the first real chance he had at it, he blew a double-digit home lead just like John Harbaugh would.

  • The Ravens were outscored 15-0 in the fourth quarter.
  • Shough was 27-of-34 for 252 yards and led scoring drives on 5-of-6 drives to end the game.
  • Derrick Henry had just 5 carries in the second half after he had 11 carries for 51 yards and a touchdown in the first half (consistent gains as his long run was 8 yards).
  • Henry had 14 successful runs on 16 carries, and yet they got away from him while the offense couldn’t move the ball in the second half.
  • Tied 17-17 in the fourth quarter after the defense was flagged for holding that led to a game-tying 2PC for the Saints, the Ravens faced a 3rd-and-1 at their 37. Jackson threw deep instead of going back to Henry, then they punted.
  • With 8:06 left, the Saints burned 6:38 and scored the game-winning touchdown on a Shough sneak on 4th-and-goal from the 1 with 1:28 left.

Do I think Shough actually broke the plane and scored? No, not from the few angles I saw. Do I think the Ravens were screwed? No, they were actually helped by this since the refs didn’t call an obvious facemask on the player pulling down Shough. That would have made it first and goal, and the Saints would have ran the clock down (Baltimore out of timeouts) and kicked the short field goal on the final play to win 20-17.

Calling that a Shough touchdown actually saved the offense time to get a drive. But this is a spot where I think Jackson has underwhelmed in his career where you absolutely need a touchdown in the final minutes.

I’m not surprised he didn’t get it done again, ending with an ugly interception that probably looks less ugly if the target wasn’t an oblivious Rashod Bateman, the de-facto WR1 for the day because of Zay Flowers’ injury. Bateman is like the Xavier Worthy of the Baltimore offense. A first-round pick that really shouldn’t have been, he just never has developed a great chemistry with Jackson. They had numbers together in this game, but when it came time to close and then time to tie, they couldn’t connect and I think Jackson put a little too much on the last pass that caused it to sail over a receiver barely looking for it. Because that’s who Bateman is in this offense.

You add it all together, and you get yet another blown double-digit lead at home for the Ravens. Can’t blame this one on Harbaugh too unless you want to acknowledge they hired the closest thing they can to a younger version of Harbaugh.

Bengals at Texans: Stroud of Mystery

Man, what another weird f’n game with the 2026 Bengals. Last week, they recovered four fumbles against Tampa Bay. This time, they let C.J. Stroud throw for 353 yards on 55 attempts, no interceptions, and somehow the Texans only scored 6 points.

That’s never been done before in NFL history. A quarterback throwing for 350+, no picks, and his team scored fewer than 10 points. Never happened until Sunday, and the fact that they let Stroud throw 55 passes in a game without Nico Collins and a game they never trailed by more than 14 is preposterous. Stroud also led the team with 29 rushing yards as David Montgomery had 6 carries for 10 yards. Are we supposed to believe the line was really that outmatched up front against Dexter Lawrence and company? I have a hard time buying that.

The Cincinnati offense was about what you’d expect. Joe Burrow took 5 sacks against a proud pass rush, but Ja’Marr Chase showed why he’s arguably the best there is with two touchdowns, including one beauty for the highlight reels. But Chase and Higgins had almost 85% of Burrow’s passing yardage.

This game was put on Stroud, and 6 points on 13 drives with no turnovers and only one missed field goal is wild stuff. Granted, they were 0-for-4 on fourth down, the hidden turnovers in the box score. But what a strange gameplan from the Texans.

Packers at Jets: New York Errors

After two weeks, I get the sense the Packers are going to be worse than expected and the Jets better than expected this season. New York really should have won this game instead of blowing a 10-point 4Q lead and losing overtime. I noticed in Week 1 the way they were controlling the ball in Tennessee, and they were doing it here. The final margin in time of possession was 37:40 to 26:57 but the Jets also held the Packers to 1-of-9 on third down and 0-of-1 on fourth down.

The Jets are just the second home team since 1991 to lose a game after:

  • Scored 17+ points
  • Converted 8+ third downs
  • Allowed 0-1 third down conversions
  • At least 37:00 time of possession

Teams in this situation are now 69-2 since 1991. The other loss was the Colts in the 1995 opener against Cincinnati, and that was different since they were down 21-10 in the fourth quarter and forced overtime before losing. The Jets blew the double-digit lead here.

But I guess the Packers have been here before under Matt LaFleur and Jordan Love.

But Aaron Glenn is going to keep costing the Jets games like this. Up 10, they gave up 38 yards on a DPI penalty to wipe out a 1st-and-25 situation. Tied at the 2:00 warning, they try to run on 3rd-and-2, didn’t get it, then failed on a 4th-and-1 run at midfield that could have easily cost them the game in regulation if the Packers didn’t go 4-and-out. I think you have to let Geno throw on that 3rd-and-2, then you can work on the clock and setting up the last-second FG.

In overtime, Smith took two straight sacks to kill that drive on a three-and-out. But why would you even choose to receive first in overtime? You’re the home team, you’ve been moving the ball all day while Love struggled to get chunk plays. Force the Packers to go first with the constraints of conservative three-down football, then you can answer with four-down football, knowing exactly what you need.

But the Jets went three-and-out, and the Packers only needed a couple of first downs to get in range for the 26-yard field goal. Cue another stupid 15-yard flag on Glenn’s defense to help it along too, a unit that still doesn’t have an interception in his 19 games.

Vikings at Bears: Cancel the Ben Johnson Statue

When I wrote about Week 2 reversion from Week 1’s high scoring, I never thought 9-3 was a possibility in Chicago a week after 59-37 in Carolina. I need to start paying more attention to the weather reports even in September for some of these games, but some rain still shouldn’t have been enough to produce such a ridiculously low score here. Don’t forget the Bears can run the ball with multiple 100-yard rushers last week.

But what a tough day for the Bears in the face of Brian Flores’ mad blitzing ways. The Bears had 10 drives that ended in:

  • Four punts
  • One FG
  • One blocked FG
  • One interception
  • One Swift fumble at the MIN 1 on 1st-and-goal in the third quarter (killer)
  • One end of half after Williams took a sack after having 0:20 left to work with
  • One turnover on downs to end the game on a fourth-down sack

It’s not like the Bears couldn’t do anything (297 yards and 17 first downs). They just didn’t finish enough drives, and the Swift fumble and blocked FG were real killers.

But the game will likely be remembered best for the Caleb Williams injury. Just a freak accident where he tried to dodge a sack from behind and pulled up after blowing a hamstring. My question would be, should they have just kicked the 26-yard field goal on 4th-and-1 on the previous snap with 8:30 left in a 6-3 game?

Anymore, coaches turn down the field goal to go for it, but it’s not like the game was hanging in the balance on that drive. It was 6-3. There’d be another possession. I think coaches are getting a little too caught up in taking the lead when you can tie it and change the game state that way. Also note that four plays later, he ended up having to kick the tying field goal anyway. It just cost him his quarterback and a full 2:00 off the clock.

Of course, you still have to make the kick, which didn’t happen because of a block. The Vikings actually put together a long drive to get a field goal to make it 9-3, then Tyson Bagent only had 1:00 to go get a touchdown with no timeouts. I thought he did an impressive job to give them a shot from the 12. Just couldn’t cover those final 12 yards in the red zone as Flores’ defense delivered one more time.

While the Bears think about their quarterback situation, what are the Vikings thinking these days? They’re the first team in NFL history to win four straight games with four different starting quarterbacks (Max Brosmer, J.J. McCarthy, Kyler Murray, Carson Wentz). This might be one of the more fraudulent 2-0 starts we’ve seen, but we’ve seen Kevin O’Connell find weird ways to win these close games before.

But what a brutal day for Chicago that I guess could have been worse.

Steelers at Patriots: Darkness Retreat Sounds Good About Now

Aaron Rodgers might be retiring sooner than later if more games like Sunday happen. He was bad, the coaching was bad, the receivers (especially D.K. Metcalf) were awful, the running game didn’t exist, and the offensive line was abysmal.

I think they covered up the line last year with Rodgers getting the ball out short and fast to the running backs and tight ends. This year, Metcalf is dropping all the important balls, Michael Pittman Jr. was already out with an injury, and rookie Germie Bernard looked good until he bobbled a pass in the red zone that went down as an interception for Rodgers, which I’m sure pisses him off since he complained for six days about the drops and flags he didn’t get in Week 1.

Teams see they can’t run and they can just tee off on him right now. It’s a mess, and it’s somehow worse than what they looked like last year. The defense was fine on Sunday outside of the long touchdown run given up to TreVeyon Henderson. He can do that though.

But I thought Drake Maye had another struggle game. T.J. Watt is playing great in this new defense. The only reason they had a chance in the second half was this defense. Maye followed up his best throw with a bad pick, his fourth already. Still taking 3 sacks a week this year. He needs to get right, but at least Romeo Doubs pulled in a big catch to show he’s not worthless.

Still, 23 points in eight quarters for the New England offense. That still sounds better than the 8.0 points per game the Steelers’ offense has.

Browns at Buccaneers: Nasty Business

The early returns on the 2026 Buccaneers are horrific. Baker Mayfield is playing some of his worst ball after he got thoroughly outplayed at home by Deshaun Watson on the other side, and it’s not like the Browns still have Myles Garrett on defense. I expected him to come out of that long weather delay and immediately throw a pick. Instead, he just couldn’t find anything and the Bucs turned it over on downs in a 23-19 loss.

Then you have a bad defense for Todd Bowles, not much going for rookie Rueben Bain Jr., and this 0-2 team is fortunate to be playing in the NFC South.

They even let Watson get this done without a running game as he led the team with 22 rushing yards. The rest of his team had 16 carries for 22 yards. A carry job by Predator.

This is why it’s better to fire a coach a year early than a year late.

Commanders at Cowboys: “Shit” Indeed, Tom Brady

It’s funny how FOX paid Tom Brady $37.5M per year just to call shitty NFC East games every week where he even dropped a “Shit!” on air after the replay of Jayden Daniels’ nasty elbow injury before halftime.

What’s not funny is that I think Dan Quinn just screwed his team’s season and his quarterback’s health for the second year in a row. It was keeping him in a blowout vs. Seattle last year when he was injured, then they rushed him back. On Sunday, it was 3rd-and-goal at the 1 with 0:03 left in the half, Washington down 17-10.

You’re getting the ball to start the third quarter. Knowing that fact, kick the FG, make it 17-13, then go get more in the second half. Plenty of game left. The whole mechanism of this play f’n stunk as it doesn’t look like anyone on Washington ever tried to run a route. What was Daniels supposed to do if he didn’t trip on his lineman’s foot?

He tried to protect himself, injured his elbow, and it just never should have happened. They’re doing him worse than this franchise did RG3.

As for Dallas, what can I say? Dak was great, but he usually is against Washington. I need to see something new. Dan Quinn will not be the coach of the Commanders in 2027.

Jaguars at Broncos: Bo Nix in His Element

The Broncos picked up their first win with another low-scoring 4QC led by Bo Nix, who turned a 13-6 deficit into a 20-13 win. It’s a familiar script from 2025, and they turned around their 34-20 loss to Jacksonville with a much better game defensively and arguably a weaker one on offense.

At least Jayden Waddle came through with over 100 yards, but it doesn’t seem like they are getting Courtland Sutton going this year with Waddle there now. They’ve still got a long way to go offensively, but the rookie back (Coleman) made some promising plays.

The Jaguars are leaning heavily on Parker Washington right now, which makes sense when he’s playing well and you’re playing a team with Surtain at corner. But at some point you have to get Jakobi Meyers and Brian Thomas Jr. involved too. Not much from the running game either as Tuten is no Kenneth Walker, and the Broncos didn’t have a historically-bad tackling game this time.

But we’ll need to see better from both teams in Week 3. Jags host the Pats, and Broncos host the Rams on SNF.

Seahawks at Cardinals: JSN Couldn’t Resist the Pretty End Zone

Not sure how or why my mind works this way, but I wrote that title because I was thinking of the unique paint job the Arizona grounds team used in this game, and that Jaxon Smith-Njigba couldn’t resist visiting it three times. You know, the same way demon pastor Kenneth Copeland “couldn’t help but buy” that private jet cause they “made it so cheap for me.”

Yep, that’s somehow my reference point here. ‘They made that end zone so pretty for me, I couldn’t help but visit it three times.” – JSN

Also, is it wrong that my first thought after this game ended Sunday was confirmation that the Chargers really suck? They made this Arizona team look good while the Seahawks, even with Drew Lock starting, just embarrassed them in a similar fashion to last year where the defense shut down Jacoby Brissett, and JSN proved he is quarterback-proof with 9/155/3.

The Seattle defense is still very much a problem for the rest of the NFL. Onto the next.

Eagles at Titans: The Good and Bad of Jalen Hurts

I thought Jalen Hurts played really well outside of the two picks. Great on third downs, and another game-winning drive with a clutch touchdown in the final seconds to a receiver no one heard of – legitimately, not the fake 2001-06 Tom Brady narrative. Just clean up the mistakes, do more damage on early downs.

Much better fight from Cam Ward and the Titans over Week 1. Obviously still a tough defensive matchup for him. Tough loss but a step in the right direction.

Raiders at Chargers: Ruh-Roh, San Diego

Justin Herbert has not been good since the calendar turned to 2026. On the one hand, if I had my choice of spending extra hours watching “Cardinals/Raiders film” or spending hours of direct contact with Madison Beer, I’m choosing the latter every single night. Ladd McConkey probably open somewhere. Johnston too. And even if I throw to the open guy, he still might tip it up in the air for an interception. So, screw it. I’m enjoying life.

No doubt, the Chargers have been the most disappointing team through what was supposed to be their two easiest games. Herbert’s been bad, but as much as I don’t want to be his apologist anymore, this latest 26-14 home loss as a big favorite actually is easy to defend for him. It just is as much as I hate to admit it.

  • I just showed you the first pick that was a perfect throw on third down to David Njoku on a deep ball. Should have been a conversion and likely scoring drive. Damn Cleveland players.
  • The first drive of the game was a 58-yard missed field goal by Dicker the Kicker. Isn’t he supposed to be great?
  • He started the second half with a 74-yard touchdown drive.
  • Now behind 17-14, a drive was ruined in short yardage with a 1-yard run on 2nd-and-2 followed by an aborted snap from the center (Slaughter). Punt.
  • That combo of line + failed running game in short yardage ruined the next drive with a holding penalty (1st-and-20), then Hampton ran for no gain on 3rd-and-2. Another punt.
  • Driving to midfield with 3:52 left before Hampton goes all Melvin Gordon with the choke-time fumble, leading to a 16-yard touchdown drive for the Raiders.
  • Now you’re down 24-14 with 2:59 left, a near-impossible hole to dig out of, and Herbert throws his second pick on a 3rd-and-11 heave.
  • He gets the ball back deep in his own end (94 yards to go), and holding in the end zone by Joe Alt leads to a safety. Game over.

That sounds like a piss-poor team effort instead of the quarterback letting them down. I think Week 1 was worse than this for Herbert. Now he’s got to play at Buffalo this week, so good luck avoiding 0-3. If they couldn’t beat the Cardinals and Raiders at home, I hate to think what that final record is going to be for the team I picked to go 11-6 and win the division.

Obviously, I’d pick the Chiefs now, but I thought that Mike McDaniel and the healthier offensive tackles would make the difference here. I also always believed in Jim Harbaugh’s coaching, and I’ve believed in Herbert since 2020. But this season has been a disaster and we may not have seen rock bottom yet.

Yet, Herbert gets to go home and rock that bott-You get the idea. He’s not unlucky off the field at least.

Raiders are probably the biggest 2-0 fool’s gold in the league right now, but good on Klint Kubiak to take advantage of the opportunity.

Dolphins at 49ers: Purdy Perfection

This was just a 14-6 game at halftime because it was on pace for just 10 possessions. The Dolphins kicked three field goals (missed one), and the 49ers had two long touchdown drives. That would have been incredible if they kept that pace, but in the second half, the Dolphins never scored again while the 49ers went 5-for-5 at scoring touchdowns before eschewing the perfect game with a big lead and punting twice before running out the clock.

An easy 35-13 win where Brock Purdy was 20-of-22 for 287 yards, 2 TDs, and no sacks. He also had 30 rushing yards (rest of team: 65) and a touchdown on the ground, giving him a 99.7 QBR, which apparently ranks as the No. 8 game since 2006. But if you look at the list, Purdy is the only quarterback in the top 15 to have at least 11 EPA in his game.

Going to be a long season for Miami. With the 49ers, I just worry they’re losing too many receivers after Demarcus Robinson left injured in this one.

Panthers at Falcons: Maybe Atlanta Should Trade for Bryce Young…

The Mercedes-Benz Stadium seems to bring out the best in Bryce Young, even going back to his days at Alabama:

  • Bryce Young’s 1st NCAAF Start: A 44-13 win vs. Miami where Young was 27-of-38 for 344 yards, 4 TD, 0 INT.
  • 2021 SEC Championship Game: A 41-24 win over 12-0 Georgia where Young was 26-of-44 for 421 yards, 3 TD, 0 INT, 40 rushing yards, 1 rushing TD.
  • 2024 Season at Atlanta: 251 yards and 3 TDs with 0 INT in a 44-38 overtime win, his only NFL win when Carolina allowed more than 30 points.
  • 2025 Season at Atlanta: Led a 14-point comeback in a 30-27 OT win where he was 31-of-45 for a career-high 448 yards, 3 TD, 0 INT.
  • 2026 Season at Atlanta: Easy 34-3 win where he was 23-of-36 for 287 yards, 3 TD, 0 INT.

His first NFL start was also in that building, and that one didn’t go well. But we can give him a pass for that. Maybe the Falcons need to ditch their quarterback calamity and trade for Young so he can play in HIS building half the year. I’m not even joking that much.

A joke would be starting your first two games with Cooper Rush at quarterback. Fortunately, we should see Penix on Thursday night.

Next Week

I just finished my Week 3 preview of the top five games, and [Bernthal voice] let me tell you something, it’s not a good slate. The closest thing to a marquee game is SNF (Rams at Broncos), and the Rams really haven’t played a watchable game yet as this will be their third straight in prime time (locally, at least). But we’re being subjected to the Falcons in prime time a lot in the coming weeks, so at least it’s going to be Michael Penix Jr. in Green Bay on Thursday night.

Sunday, Chargers at Buffalo should have been good, but I ended up not even writing about it since I don’t expect much from the 0-2 team that couldn’t beat the Raiders and Cardinals at home. Jags-Patriots is interesting, Steelers are in a bad matchup with the Bengals, and the Chiefs need to plaster Miami in their first road game this season.

Baltimore at Dallas, the field could be compromised in Brazil. But that’s potentially a good one in the late-afternoon window. Eagles-Bears, let’s just say I’m intrigued by the thought of what Tyson Bagent can do in Ben Johnson’s offense. He won’t go off script like Caleb, so Ben might have to Neuralink this one and get the backup to throw it exactly where he wants. Could be interesting.

2026 NFL Stat Oddity: Week 1

NFL Stat Oddity 2026

I saved this Word document as “Close Encounters – Week 1” after forgetting I’ve given this weekly NFL recap a totally different name than the one I always wanted to use going back to even 2013. But this is Stat Oddity, and we may have just started the 2026 season with the highest-scoring Week 1 in the Super Bowl era.

Or maybe it’s the highest-scoring Week 1 Sunday since 1970 as we want to forget Wednesday and Thursday happened (and for good reason). Either way, the 10 new head coaches and 21 new offensive coordinators led to a lot of points but not a ton of dramatic finishes. We’ve had 7-of-15 games with a comeback opportunity (four successes), though three games did end with a game-sealing drive (Steelers vs. Falcons, Bengals vs. Buccaneers, and Giants vs. Cowboys), and that’s a stat I’d like to cover more thoroughly later this season.

While Week 1 isn’t everything, I think it’s important to make a good early impression and show that it is a new year and things are going to be different. The Cardinals, Ravens, and Giants got that memo. Not so much for the Browns, Titans, Chargers, Packers, and Cowboys. And despite Week 1 wins, I’m not sure the Bills, Steelers, Bengals, and Lions should feel overly confident just yet.

Let’s recap the 13 Sunday games from Week 1.

Bills at Texans: Game of the Week

If you watched DeMeco Ryans’ Houston defense take on Joe Brady’s Buffalo offense the last two seasons, then Sunday’s game was culture shock:

  • Josh Allen wasn’t 9-of-30 passing or dropped for 8 sacks this time; he was 20-of-29 for 334 yards, 2 sacks, and one of the most vertical games of his career with Dalton Kincaid (130) and D.J. Moore having huge games.
  • C.J. Stroud didn’t even play in last year’s win (Davis Mills did), but he had one of his better games here with 26-of-38 passing for 274 yards, 2 touchdowns, and no picks after his ugly postseason run in January stalled contract extension talks for this season.
  • Houston’s new running back, David Montgomery, had 79 total yards and scored 3 touchdowns.
  • It was 24-21 at halftime, a higher-scoring game than these teams have had in four full meetings in Houston in the Allen era.

But I hope this game doesn’t have a huge impact on the AFC playoff standings or the MVP race or Coach of the Year race, because the beginning and end were frankly ridiculous on both sides, and it exposed some of the reasons I still wouldn’t trust either team in January to win the conference and get to the Super Bowl.

Sure, the middle was back and forth, lots more scoring than usual for these teams when they match up, and exciting to watch. But that’s not a good sign for Buffalo’s defense in its first game without Sean McDermott that you’re letting Stroud light you up for 31 points, or that he was 9 yards away from scoring 38. Where’s all this aggression we’re supposed to see from new coordinator Jim Leonhard?

Allen started the game with a terrible 2-yard loss on 4th-and-1 in scoring territory, then they already resorted to their 3rd-and-long lateral play just to put together a 4-yard field goal drive to start the scoring after Stroud lost a fumble on the third play for Houston.

But the last 6:38 really fry me from both sides:

  • Down 31-30, Allen fumbles the snap and is fortunate to recover, leading to a quick three-and-out.
  • The Texans know a 1-point lead isn’t good for shit and they may not even see the ball again, and yet they do the ultra-conservative move of run/run/pass before their own three-and-out.
  • On what became a 96-yard game-winning touchdown drive for Buffalo, James Cook fumbled on the first run and Buffalo’s incredible fumble luck struck again as they recovered this one in the open field.
  • After getting to the Houston 34, Allen decided to throw a deep ball for the end zone with 1:48 left instead of working the clock to try to set up a field goal as the final snap, and it ended up being an atrocious dropped interception by Kamari Lassiter.

I’m not going to call it an obvious game-ender since the Bills still had three timeouts and enough time to get the ball back in a 1-point game. But it absolutely could have won the game for Houston, and he just dropped it. Then one play later he gets beat on the coverage for a touchdown to Josh Palmer. Then like clockwork, the Bills screwed up another 2PC, so they left themselves vulnerable at 36-31 to lose to a touchdown.

And since the Bills went for the chunk plays again, Stroud had plenty of time to make a legacy drive with 91 seconds, two timeouts, and 71 yards to go. We haven’t really seen him do this since that great drive to beat Tampa Bay in his rookie year, but the problem there is Stroud almost never pulls off these drives in the NFL. He’s now 2-11 at 4QC opportunities in his career.

But this could have been his moment in a big game to start the season on a high note. It looked like he might do it after getting the Texans to the 9-yard line with 25 seconds left after more breakdowns in Buffalo’s secondary. But then Stroud just ate a sack, lost 9 yards, and had to burn the last timeout. That’s the kind of play where your quarterback has to send the ball through the eighth row. Just inexcusable to take a sack.

Then two plays later with the game on the line from the 18, he does it again after a hurry-up snap, which never seem to work in the NFL anymore unless you can catch them with 12 men on the field. But I think the hurried snap led to panic in Stroud, and he coughed up the ball for his second fumble of the game to blow it.

So, I don’t think this game does anything to really move the needle for these teams when it comes to getting to the Super Bowl. I think they both showed some of their usual flaws with the Bills’ defensive shortcomings and tendency to make crushing mistakes at the worst times, and Stroud can’t be trusted on a GWD situation.

The best thing it does for Buffalo winning is it makes it less likely they’ll have to go back to Houston for a rematch in January.

Cardinals at Chargers: Upset of the Week

Every season there’s usually a big upset in Week 1, and it just so happens to be Cardinals at Chargers this year. I had a bad feeling, which is why I picked the Cardinals +9.5 ATS. My thought was the Cardinals moved the ball really well last year with Jacoby Brissett, they moved it as well as anyone in the 2026 preseason under new coach Mike LaFleur, and the Chargers were replacing Jesse Minter at defensive coordinator and could struggle there.

But I trusted Jim Harbaugh and his BFF Justin Herbert to win this one at home as they have much harder games to come. Mostly, I thought Mike McDaniel would have a big impact on the offense, allowing for more explosive plays now that Herbert has more receivers beyond Ladd McConkey, the two tackles were healthy, and McDaniel’s Miami offenses usually peaked in September. It felt like a slam dunk for a 30+ point outing for Herbert against one of last year’s worst defenses.

It never materialized. The Chargers never led, the Cardinals had the two longest gains of the game, and the Chargers didn’t run the ball well, had little going for them outside of Ladd McConkey (left injured too), and Herbert took three sacks as they beat up the interior of his line instead this time.

You have to love the play late in the game where three Chargers blocked one Cardinal while two free rushers got in on Herbert for a sack.

It was one of the worst performances for the Chargers in the Harbaugh era. Maybe the Cardinals are a surprise team this year, but I have a hard time believing they’re still not headed for last place in the best division. The Chargers just seemed really out of sorts on offense, and that Minter-less defense wasn’t impressive at all. Brissett’s only sack didn’t lose any yards, and they gave up a touchdown on the opening drive to rookie back Jeremiyah Love.

Arizona somehow has two wideouts playing better than Marvin Harrison Jr. now as Kendrick Bourne caught all 8 of his targets for 75 yards, but even MHJ had a 33-yard grab, the longest play of the game.

Remember when McDaniel was supposed to unleash Herbert’s arm? We’ll have to wait to see it I guess as it was a total dud in Week 1, and that screwed up a ton of bettors, including my best parlays on Sunday.

Does Madison Beer even know about Chargers BINGO and the level of curse she’s getting involved with here? It runs deep.

Bears at Panthers: Did Ben Johnson Know What He Had?

Ben Johnson might be a mad genius after all. Proclaiming this summer that he wants to break the 2013 Broncos’ single-season scoring record, his team went out and dropped 59 points in Carolina in Week 1. Not bad for someone coaching a team that many soured on and expected to be a prime regression candidate in 2026.

For the record, I picked the Bears to win 10 games and get a wild card berth in my predictions. But I’ll entertain the scoring record if they can drop a healthy number on Brian Flores’ Vikings in Week 2 as the Panthers just lack the key pieces for an adequate defense this year.

Still, 59 points on the road is a crazy number to start the season. In fact, the 96 combined points are the most in a season opener in NFL history. That’s also why I wish Johnson would realize his goal is not a good one as high-scoring juggernauts just don’t win Super Bowls. You need balance, and giving up 37 points to the Panthers is not a good sign for their defense.

Granted, putting pressure on the Panthers to keep scoring, the Bears were able to make the fourth quarter pretty much irrelevant, which was always going to be key this year after the way they won so late in games in 2025. That’s one way to avoid that. They also still forced three turnovers after leading the league in turnover differential, so that’s a good start on that front too.

They also did this with Colston Loveland not catching a pass, Rome Odunze catching two passes, and 32-year-old receiver Kalif Raymond led the way with 84 yards on 8-of-9 targets caught. Go figure, Johnson imports a Detroit receiver and he immediately leads the team in Week 1 after he’d be maybe fifth on your depth chart in terms of your best receiving option.

Throw in an elite running game that piled up 291 yards with Caleb Williams running for 65 yards and two touchdowns to complement two 100-yard rushers, and you have some real potential to light up the scoreboard all year. I don’t know about the scoring record, but they definitely can outdo what they did last year.

Either way, the Bears are going to be a lot of fun this year, and that’s one of the best things about Johnson hooking up with Caleb in Chicago. Making the Bears must-see TV for their offense for the first time ever basically.

Packers at Vikings: The Body Weight Rule Strikes Again in This Rivalry

Why does the body weight rule always seem to pop up in Packers vs. Vikings game the last decade?

It’s still hard to believe the Packers turned a 22-10 lead with 20 minutes left into a 39-22 loss. They knocked out Kyler Murray, who saw his first game with Minnesota end on an interception on his first throw, then a nasty hit to the head for a concussion. Enter Carson Wentz, who took three sacks against a defense still missing Micah Parsons (ACL), and some would say a few more should have counted.

It ended up being a controversial day for officiating in this one. I thought Jordan Love was having one of his best games ever until he wasn’t in the fourth quarter. Everything turned for the Packers after they declined the points on a 40-yard field goal that would have put them up 25-17 with 13:17 to play because the Vikings were offsides.

It’s a defendable call. You try for the 4th-and-1 at the Minnesota 17, you burn more clock if you convert it, then you have chance to make it a two-score game or at least get the shorter field goal eventually. Except Love did the sneak, and the virtual measurement said he didn’t get it, so the Vikings got the ball back down 22-17. I can’t really fault Matt LaFleur for that one.

Then on a weekend with some shaky game-winning drives (Bills), the Vikings really took the cake here. Typical I guess when Carson Wentz is the one coming off the bench to lead it, but Green Bay thought it stopped him on a 3rd-and-11 only to get caught for an illegal contact to extend the drive. Then they got another 3rd-and-3 stop on an incomplete pass only to get hit with a ridiculous roughing the passer penalty. Then a Wentz interception on third down in the end zone was negated by defensive holding.

Did Tom Brady host a LOAT seminar this summer that only Wentz, Burrow, and Allen had the details for? How to will the defense to commit multiple penalties on the same GWD? How to get the opponent to drop your picks and how to will your defense to recover fumbles?

Eventually, Aaron Jones scattered into the end zone for the go-ahead touchdown combined with the 2-point conversion pass to Justin Jefferson, who looks elite with any quarterback besides J.J. McCarthy (and I guess Max Brosmer).

Down 25-22, the Packers lost yards on three straight plays as Brian Flores kept blitzing Love, and he was sacked on back-to-back plays, including a fumble that set up the Vikings for a 1-yard touchdown drive to make it 32-22 with 4:48 left. Love was picked off on a deflection two plays later and the rout was on.

The Packers lost their sixth-straight game for the first time since the year before Brett Favre wound up in Green Bay. They’ve also blown their third multi-score lead in that time.

It’s a brutal way to lose a game you felt like you had control of for most of the day. But anymore, the Packers have shown they can blow just about any game. Makes you realize why teams usually just fire the coach who loses his last five games in a season…

Buccaneers at Bengals: Fumble Luck Sliders Maxed Out Already?

The 33-27 final score suggests a shootout, except in true Cincinnati fashion in the Joe Burrow era, it really wasn’t one. Both defenses scored a touchdown, but the Bengals’ new defense stole the show by forcing the Buccaneers into four lost fumbles (three by Baker on wild scrambles or strip-sacks). That means 50% of Tampa Bay’s eight drives ended with a lost fumble.

That’s impressive stripping, but it’s obviously not sustainable to force and recover that many fumbles, and Mayfield was still 23-of-28 passing for 216 yards in the game. The Bengals will have to get better there but at least they got the turnovers and also sacked Mayfield four times as his first game after the $55M AAV extension was a disaster.

Cincinnati’s offense moved the ball decently, doing its best on third downs (8-of-14). But it wasn’t a clean game for Joe Burrow as he threw another pick-six, something that plagued him in 2025 when he came back. That always seems to throw him off, being the perfectionist, the rest of the game too, but Evan McPherson was able to make a 58-yard field goal to save one drive for more points. Ja’Marr Chase was unusually quiet with 12 yards on the day.

But after a Mayfield scramble for a touchdown made it 33-27 with 3:19 left, the Bengals were aggressive in the four-minute offense and Burrow was able to put the game away with his receivers, converting three passes for first downs, then a 3rd-and-1 keeper to ice the clock for good.

The Bengals should feel encouraged about winning a game where Chase did little and the defense had all those turnovers. But Burrow can’t be happy about another pick-six, and he knows those turnovers aren’t always going to be for him on the other side every week.

As for the Bucs, the good news is they play in the NFC South where every team is 0-1, which is right on brand. I’d expect Baker to bounce back with a huge game against the Browns next week.

Cowboys at Giants: Is New York Ready for This? Dallas Was Not

I give the NFC East a hard time because I feel they’re usually pushed on us in national games because of the size of their media markets instead of the value of their product. Cowboys vs. Giants has been an especially egregious rivalry to feature in the last decade as Dak Prescott has dominated New York. After getting swept by the G-Men in his 2016 rookie season, Prescott won 14 straight starts in 2017-25 before leaving Week 18’s irrelevant game early, and the Giants went on to win that one.

That means for the first time since his rookie year, Dak just lost a game he finished against the Giants. It only involved the only game since 1991 (if not all of NFL history) where both teams converted over 72% of the time on third down, hence seven possessions for each team.

Sure, there was a time in the previous decade (2006-15) when this was good when it was Eli Manning vs. Tony Romo in entertaining games. But watching the Giants try to outscore Dak with Daniel Jones and Saquon Barkley just wasn’t that fun.

However, he may have new competition to deal with as Jaxson Dart opened his second season with one of his best games, leading the Giants to four touchdowns on six drives before running out the final 5:21 on the clock in a 28-20 game on his seventh possession. Keep in mind one of the only two stops the Cowboys had involved a Cam Skattebo fumble, so Dart was very protective of the ball and extremely efficient.

Dart showed patches of elite drive efficiency as a rookie, and that was impressive given he almost never had his best wideout (Malik Nabers) and best running back (Skattebo) together because of injuries. In his first full game with them, he did this as the revamped Dallas defense actually took some steps backwards with poor communication on the field. I also think adding Isaiah Likely at tight end is a big move as he can finally unleash himself from playing behind Mark Andrews in Baltimore. Matt Nagy gets a lot of grief, and I never bought for a second the Kansas City decline in 2023-25 was his fault, but he delivered in Game 1 as OC of the Giants.

John Harbuagh also found a lead he couldn’t blow, though both teams had some stupid penalties on the night. Dallas just had the last few critical ones like when Javonte Williams was penalized for taunting for celebrating a touchdown too early by pointing. That cost his team, which was down 14 points before his score, a chance to go for two early, then the Cowboys missed the 15-yards deeper extra point, keeping it a 28-20 game.

Then with the Cowboys down to two clock stoppages with 2:10 left, they pulled Dart down by the facemask at midfield, drawing another 15-yard flag and automatic first down.

After watching the other teams with second-year quarterbacks fail to impress on Sunday, maybe the Giants with Harbaugh and Dart are the one to watch for a breakout season in 2026. Guess we’ll find out next week when they play the 0-1 Rams how much of this is new leadership and better health vs. how much is playing a dumb team like Dallas.

Commanders at Eagles: Ho-Hum, the Eagles Won, and Stefon Diggs Is Still Dumb

It pains me to say this, but Jayden Daniels is getting close to unwatchable territory. The Eagles have a good defense, but he’s solved them before as a rookie (2024) when they were Super Bowl-worthy. But on Sunday, even with healthier weapons than he had last year, he really struggled to get the ball downfield, and that’s why it was 17-9 going into the fourth.

Fortunately, Daniels made some nice scrambles and smart throws to lead two late touchdown drives to keep this one competitive. Unfortunately, Stefon Diggs went full diva with a penalized celebration for humping the goal post after his first touchdown with the team. That cost the Commanders a shot at the game-tying two-point conversion with 9:59 left.

The Eagles answered with a touchdown to Dallas Goedert, his second of the day, as they found ways to score in both halves this time after they started to scare you with 2025 déjà vu after starting the second half with three straight three-and-out drives. But Jalen Hurts played one of his best games of the last two years, and Dontayvion Wicks stepped up with 73 yards and a touchdown. Like I said before the season, I actually think Hurts will be better without A.J. Brown this year.

Still, it wouldn’t be an Eagles game without a close finish, and after Daniels threw a touchdown to make it 24-22, the Eagles weren’t fooled at all by the little shovel pass attempt to tie it, so they stuffed that.

The Eagles recovered the onside kick and that was it. I get that the Eagles have a nice pass rush and secondary, so that’s how you end up with Terry McLaurin catching two passes for 14 yards. But rookie Antonio Williams was productive (4-64-1), and Diggs did well (4-55-1) penalty withstanding. They have a good mixture of weapons around Daniels this year, so we need to see better results as it’s hard to believe this guy was the uber-efficient and consistent rookie we saw in 2024.

Saints at Lions: Too Close for Comfort in Detroit

Not sure any win feels more like a loss in Week 1 than Detroit over the Saints. Like the Bengals, the Lions were a team hoping for an easier schedule and better health to key players will lead them back in the playoffs this year. It should have been a layup to get the Saints at home in Week 1 as a 6.5-point favorite, and despite some boring early action – save for a ridiculous call of an incomplete pass when it looked like Jared Goff fumbled the ball backwards – the Lions led 21-0 more than halfway through the third quarter.

Tyler Shough had some good moments last year as a rookie but they all came against losing teams. He was losing his shit for much of this game with numerous sacks and turnovers, but he shook it off and ended up throwing 56 passes for 410 yards and 3 touchdowns. Four straight scoring drives ended up tying the game at 24, and I agree with the decision to tie it on an extra point with 1:07 left (too much time).

In fact, the Saints got the ball back with 0:27 after forcing a three-and-out (not Jared Goff’s best day), and Shough almost worked the ball into game-winning field goal range. A 62-yard field goal is feasible these days, but Daniel Carlson was way off on his attempt, so we went to overtime.

I think the Saints were right to go on defense first as you want the ball last with four-down football and knowing exactly what you need. The Lions drove 70 yards for a touchdown, making it look easy with Amon-Ra St. Brown catching his second of the day, but the game is no longer over even in the regular season.

Shough had his chance, and he led another 80-yard touchdown drive with 1:34 left. You’re not playing for a tie in Week 1, so I agree with the decision to go for two here by Kellen Moore. Shough had to hold the ball, and the defense was good enough to force Lance out of the back of the end zone as I’m not sure he was going to be able to catch it in bounds.

The Lions held on for the 31-30 win in a game that looked like it might end with under 30 combined points for a while there. We’ll see where the Saints go from here, but a bit of a red flag for the Lions in nearly giving this one away. Tough game up next with the Bills too on Thursday night to christen their new stadium in a meaningful game.

Falcons at Steelers: A Mike Tomlin Tribute

For the first time since the 2006 season, the Pittsburgh Steelers played a game without Mike Tomlin as their head coach. But he may as well have been there spiritually as this was a struggle-fest against a third-string quarterback (Cooper Rush) that was right up Tomlin’s alley.

The reunion of Mike McCarthy with Aaron Rodgers led to the quarterback throwing his most passes in the first half of a game since 2020. But there wasn’t a lot of success down the field, the running game never materialized, and while newcomer Michael Pittman Jr. looked good (caught all 3 targets for 58 yards), Rodgers still stuck to his guys from last year as DK Metcalf, Pat Freiermuth, and Roman Wilson combined for 21 targets. Eleven more went to the running backs on those little swing passes Rodgers fell in love with (out of necessity) in 2025.

I would have loved to see rookie Germie Bernard get a target but he didn’t. I would have liked to see more Pittman Jr. usage. Maybe they were saving things cause they thought they could get past an injury-riddled Atlanta team – how the fvck are you this banged up in Week 1? – and can show more against New England next week. But I was kind of disappointed in the offense scoring 13 points and needing T.J. Watt to take over with two sacks and a brilliant pick-six to provide the winning margin in the end.

With that said, like last year, Rodgers’ arm still looks strong despite his age. He also threw some great passes through defenders down the middle of the field, and his receivers (Metcalf and Wilson particularly) let him down multiple times with drops. So, his numbers could have easily been better here.

But slumming it in a 13-10 game with a badly injured team starting Cooper Rush – swinging it out to Bijan Robinson was the only play he seemed to have – and still needing a Watt pick-six and Nick Folk to blow multiple field goals is such a nice tribute to Mike Tomlin.

Ravens at Colts: Unleashing the Triplets

After the Colts marched right down the field with seven straight passes from Daniel Jones to get a Jonathan Taylor touchdown run, you thought maybe this is going to be the first half of 2025 all over again.

Then the rest of the game happened, and now I’m thinking those first 4.5 minutes may be the peak of the 2026 Colts’ season. Zay Flowers caught a 49-yard pass on the first play from scrimmage for the Declan Doyle offensive era in Baltimore, and the Ravens were soon on their way to 41 points with huge games from Lamar Jackson (324 passing yards on 25 attempts), Flowers, and Derrick Henry (144 yards, 3 touchdowns).

That’s the “Triplets” approach after the Ravens lost some depth this offseason. But it could clearly work well. Unfortunately, Flowers left after putting up 150 yards and a touchdown after a hamstring injury, and those can always linger. Hopefully he’ll be okay as it will be harder to throw efficiently without that major piece available.

But it’s a good debut for Jesse Minter as the Ravens had no issues salting the game away, taking a 38-16 lead in the fourth quarter and winning 41-23. I didn’t see much from Daniel Jones in this one, but there will be easier games for the Colts to come. Just not enough easy ones to take them as serious contenders in this AFC.

Jets at Titans: Not the Revenge Game That Robert Saleh Had in Mind

About the only way Robert Saleh and Brian Daboll’s debut with the Titans could have gone worse was if Cam Ward threw a pick-six to the Jets after they had zero picks in 17 games last year. That streak added another game, but it didn’t even matter as they won 23-10 in a stinker of a game that should really crush the hopes of Titans fans that this year would be better.

I wouldn’t even call it very efficient offense from the Jets as they were only 2-of-12 on third down. But Geno Smith strung together some drives in his return to the team, took no sacks, had no turnovers, and they kept the ball for 38:46 as the Titans could barely run any plays.

Hell, maybe they should have thrown some picks and forced some things with Ward. On multiple occasions down three scores in the final 18:00, Saleh punted like a coward, including once from the New York 43. Calvin Ridley didn’t even have a target while new rookie wideout Carnell Tate had four catches for 38 yards.

Just a miserable day for the Titans, who appear to be directionless.

Dolphins at Raiders: And the Award for Worst Wide Receiver Room Goes To…

I’m still amused that they matched up the two worst wide receiver rooms in the league for rookie coaches in Week 1. But in the end, Klint Kubiak’s scheme won out because he could still get running back Ashton Jeanty properly involved with 147 yards from scrimmage and two receiving touchdowns. With Brock Bowers out, Jeanty led the team with 45 receiving yards.

Malik Willis was basically what you’d expect on a reworked team with little around him. He led them in rushing (39 yards), scored a touchdown that way, and was completing a fair share of passes early before taking 5 sacks and ending with 13 points.

Long year for the Dolphins to come, and I’d be surprised if the Raiders had many more wins too when the schedule gets much tougher. Even in this game, Kirk Cousins threw two picks and barely averaged 5 YPA.

Browns at Jaguars: If You Haven’t Already, Get Used to This, Cleveland

The Browns are used to terrible seasons as they were 0-16 in the last decade. But they could be a special kind of awful in 2026 after going with Deshaun Watson at quarterback and trading Myles Garrett for Jared Verse while installing a new defense sure to be worse than the one Jim Schwartz coordinated.

I’ve been building up Cleveland for the No. 1 pick in the draft with a season likely to be embarrassing on both sides of the ball, and they lived down to those expectations on Sunday with a 34-10 loss in Jacksonville that wasn’t even as close as the score suggests. In fact, Watson’s 46-yard touchdown pass to rookie Denzel Boston in garbage time gave him passable stats by the naked eye, but don’t let one meaningless score massage those numbers too much.

The Browns scored 3 points on their first 8 drives with Watson, which is terrible production as he wasn’t getting anything out of their only two receivers worth a damn in the last two seasons in Jerry Jeudy (2024) and Harold Fannin Jr. (2025).

The defense was absolutely shredded by Trevor Lawrence, who was 18-of-23 for 245 yards and 4 touchdowns to four receivers with Parker Washington (5-83-1) leading the way again.

Get used to more Cleveland blowouts like this in 2026. We’ll learn exactly where Jacksonville is at in Year 2 for Liam Coen with the Broncos, Patriots, Bengals, Eagles, and Texans up next before an early bye.

Next Week:

Should be plenty of points scored in Lions-Bills on Thursday night. Early Sunday has interesting games like Bengals-Texans, Steelers-Patriots, Vikings-Bears, and we’ll see if the Packers can stop the bleeding at the Jets. Could be another stunner in Arizona if the Cardinals get to a 2-0 start by beating Seattle, which will likely be without Sam Darnold (hip). Jags-Denver might be the main attraction at 4:25. Colts at Chiefs for SNF is a display of two teams who have slumped hard since their last meeting in November. Then the Rams suddenly have their hands full against the Giants without Myles Garrett.

NFL 2025 Week 18 Predictions: For All the Marbles Edition

We’ve reached the final weekend of the NFL 2025 regular season, and it’s hard to remember a crazier season than this with so many new contenders and so many favorites falling off. Who would ever have believed that Philip Rivers (4) would throw more touchdowns in December than Patrick Mahomes (0 in 2 games) in 2025?

I just took a sneak peak at where my preseason predictions stand, and while I was expecting the absolute worst, it looks like they’ll either be slightly better than 2024, and no worse than 2020 or 2022. But I’ll post those results on Monday morning, and I plan on doing a pretty full week of content to wrap up 2025’s regular season and get going on playoff coverage for what should be one of the hardest postseasons to predict.

Is there any “gimme” game in this playoffs besides maybe the No. 5 seed in the NFC going to the NFC South winner? I don’t think so. Anyone can beat anyone here, and we’ve even seen the Rams already lose in Carolina, so even that 5-4 matchup is possibly up for grabs.

But we have three division title games (well, one is a quasi-division title game) this weekend, and we could see the final NFL games ever involving the likes of Travis Kelce, Pete Carroll, and Aaron Rodgers. Maybe the last game John Harbaugh ever coaches for the Ravens too, the 40th edition of Harbaugh vs. Tomlin.

This Week’s Articles

My picks have a parlay for the Ravens-Steelers, Seahawks-49ers, and two NFC South games. I also have picks for Myles Garrett, Travis Kelce, and a parlay of big winners.

NFL Week 18 Predictions

Hoping to finish strong, but it’s always a tough week when you don’t know how motivated the eliminated teams will be, or how many snaps starters will get for the playoff teams.

2025 NFL Week 18 Picks

CAR-TB and NO-ATL: Give me that NFC South special. The Bucs win on Saturday but still get eliminated on Sunday after Atlanta beats the Saints without Chris Olave (pulmonary embolism; get well soon, brother). 3-way tie at 8-9 goes to Carolina, which will hopefully be the impetus for the NFL to stop giving division winners a home playoff game automatically.

SEA-SF: It’s the biggest one and I respect Seattle being probably the best team in the league this year with all three losses coming in the final minute. But I am going with the 49ers at home as I think that offense is peaking and the Seahawks have a QB in Darnold who has to prove he won’t implode in these moments. I still don’t trust him.

CLE-CIN: Myles Garrett gets his sack record, Bengals still win by 8+. If I was Joe Burrow, I’d lay down to give Garrett the cheapest sack possible for the record. See if he takes the bait. Cause it’s Burrow, you know there will probably be other opportunities later in the game, but that’s what I would do to get it out of the way.

DAL-NYG: *Yawn* Dak beats Giants again to get Cowboys to 8-8-1.

GB-MIN: Are we really about to see Clayton Tune against a Flores defense? Yikes, what an awful way to lose the under 8.5 wins bet on the 2025 Vikings.

IND-HOU: Tempted to take Indy ATS, but I think Houston can win a 20-6 type of snoozer to end the season for the Colts with Riley Leonard at QB.

TEN-JAX: I have Jags winning the AFC South here, but I think Cam Ward can end his rookie season on a high note by at least covering the big spread.

KC-LV: Kenny Pickett returns? Chiefs should win but would it really be beneficial to the draft? Just get Travis Kelce his 10 yards quickly and be done with it.

DET-CHI: What a turnaround for these teams since Week 2. I think the Bears cover at home to get that No. 2 seed and drop Detroit to a losing record without Ben Johnson this year.

LAC-DEN: Trey Lance gets a start, and I know Keenan Allen needs 6 catches for a nice incentive. But I’m going to trust Harbaugh enough to not get embarrassed and cover the spread here. Denver wins the No. 1 seed though.

MIA-NE: This might have been interesting in Miami where the Patriots tend to struggle, but it’s at home in January, so they’ll beat up on a bad Miami team here.

WAS-PHI: Yes, the Eagles can cover without Jalen Hurts against a poor defense and backup QB.

ARI-LAR: I find it hard to believe that Sean McVay will really play starters even if he’s locked into the No. 6 seed. But the Cardinals are 50/50 to get completely blown out, so I’ll take his word on it and take the Rams to cover.

NYJ-BUF: We’ll see if Josh Allen dips after the first snap to keep his streak alive, but I think he should at least do the old Peyton Manning strategy in Indy where you play a drive or two before getting out of there. Plus, it’s the Jets, so he very well could watch James Cook pile up some rushing yards to win the rushing title, then set up a tush push TD to keep Allen’s streak of 40-TD seasons alive.

BAL-PIT: I wrote a detailed preview with a +1200 SGP in the picks piece above, but I honestly think the Metcalf suspension is going to doom them in the end. That decision to give the most WR-centric passer ever one good wideout all season, and then for him to be suspended while they face AFC North defenses in bad weather is just more bad luck for Rodgers, who I honestly think should come back in 2026 if the Steelers can find a way to get him another WR.

But I picked Ravens over Packers in the Super Bowl before this absurd season started, and I’m not backing down now on the Baltimore side of things. A run is still possible in this AFC but let’s see how healthy Lamar looks.

NFL 2025 Week 17 Predictions: The End of Harbaugh-Lamar Edition

While Netflix is traditionally shady about releasing the true ratings of its programming, the NFL probably saw a ratings decline over last Christmas because all three games on Thursday featured a third-string quarterback, and the only team that really had playoff hopes was Denver, who are not a big draw on the national stage at this point.

But in true NFL fashion, the underdogs were 3-0 ATS and the Lions even ended their season in embarrassing fashion by losing 23-10 to the Vikings, who started Max Brosmer at quarterback and finished with 3 net passing yards. That’s the fewest net passing yards in a win since the 2006 Texans were below zero.

That’ll end the fifth year together for Jared Goff and Dan Campbell, and that disappointing result combined with another potentially disastrous ending this weekend for Baltimore had me thinking about the Five-Year Rule again.

This is something I first wrote for FiveThirtyEight in 2017 about how no team has won its first championship after starting the same quarterback for the same coach for more than five years.

It’s continued every year since, and you can actually go back to 1950 and it still stands true for all NFL championship-winning duos. Two of the biggest tests to this rule, which I’ve been highlighting for years now in their season previews, are the Bills (Sean McDermott-Josh Allen) and Ravens (John Harbaugh-Lamar Jackson).

They are both in Year 8 together since those quarterbacks were drafted in 2018, and neither has still reached a Super Bowl, let alone won one. Both can blame Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs for hogging up that spot so often as well as going 5-0 in the playoffs against their teams.

But the Chiefs are gone this year. That paves the way for Buffalo and Baltimore, but things have literally never been the same for the Ravens, my preseason SB pick, since Derrick Henry fumbled on opening night in Buffalo and the Ravens blew that 15-point lead in the fourth quarter.

The Ravens have been 1-5, Lamar Jackson was knocked out with that hamstring injury, they were still 6-5 after he struggled upon return, and now they’re 7-8 and facing a must-win game at Green Bay on Saturday night to prevent the Steelers from locking up the AFC North before even having to take the field in Week 17.

Yet, season on the line, and it’s looking like the final meaningful game of the Lamar Jackson-John Harbaugh era won’t even have Jackson on the field after he left last week’s loss against the Patriots with a back injury.

You can talk about Jackson trade rumors, but the fact is Harbaugh is always the one likely to get the boot here after a ton of disappointment in the playoffs since his only ring in 2012. The team’s lack of complementary football this year just might be the final nail in the coffin for Harbaugh after 18 years on the job.

The Five-Year Rule will persist after claiming one of its strongest challengers. We’ll see if it can outlast the pairing of Allen and McDermott too, but if there’s anything clear about this 2025 season, it’s that nothing is a given anymore.

The Broncos are a good bet to get the No. 1 seed and they had to stop Kansas City’s third-string quarterback on a final drive. The Rams are Super Bowl favorites despite already blowing four games, including two games as a 8+ point favorite. They could do it a third time in Atlanta on Monday night, a game that could decide Matthew Stafford’s MVP outcome.

It’s a good thing Stafford and McVay got it done right away in 2021, or else I’d be talking about the Five-Year Rule for them and how this is do or die time for this pairing.

This Week’s Articles

(I’ll add the NFL picks later when posted)

NFL Week 17 Predictions

I even said on Twitter that going chalk on Christmas was a bad idea because they’re all big spreads in divisional rematches. Yet I still did it because I hated the slate on paper that much, and yep, the results speak for themselves.

HOU-LAC: My most anticipated game this weekend because it should feel like a playoff game even if that laxed SoFi crowd wouldn’t make it sound like one. But I think it has big implications as AFC West is still in play for the Chargers, and the Texans are rolling with 7 straight wins. I’m going to trust that defense against Herbert’s OL to get it done too.

BAL-GB: Sounds like Jordan Love (concussion) is good to go against Tyler Huntley, so while the Packers are a bad spread bet as a favorite this year, I think they take care of the Ravens here as I just trust LaFleur more than Harbaugh right now.

SEA-CAR: Panthers are 5-1 ATS as a home underdog. If the Titans can lose a 30-24 game to these Seahawks, I have to believe Carolina can keep it close, if not add another shocking upset to their list.

ARI-CIN: Your classic big Jacoby Brissett stat line + failed 4QC/GWD as Burrow piles up numbers in a meaningless game.

TB-MIA: Bucs are in a free-fall, but I’m just going to trust them to pick it up here.

JAX-IND: Should be a good one with points, but I think the Colts are playing awful defense and Trevor Lawrence is cooking for maybe the first time ever in his career.

NE-NYJ: Somehow, the Jets are even worse than they were the last time these teams met.

NO-TEN: Call me crazy but I think the KC win will energize this Tennessee team to go on a little run to end this season even if Shough’s been a better rookie QB than Ward. He does have more to work with, including a coach with a brain.

PIT-CLE: I think this game will be ugly as hell with almost no passes from the Steelers to deny Myles Garrett breaking the sack record against them. But I think they’ll force Shedeur into mistakes that set up scores.

NYG-LV: The Giants have Dart and the Raiders need that No .1 pick more. I’d advise the Raiders to lose this Tank Bowl and secure the No. 1 pick.

PHI-BUF: Both teams would love to run more than pass in this matchup, but if they are forced to pass, I’m still trusting Allen at home more than Hurts on the road.

CHI-SF: 49ers haven’t punted since November and it sounds like George Kittle is playing. 49ers can win out and not have to leave Levi’s all the way through Super Bowl 60. Give me the hot team here over the team that relies on turnovers and insane comebacks.

LAR-ATL: Stafford’s MVP case is sealed or destroyed here. I feel bad for him cause this spread really should not be that high given the way the Rams are struggling on defense, the Davante injury, the Atlanta pass rush, and it’s not hard to see Kirk Cousins dealing with his full weapons and pulling this one out. I’m not sure Stafford can survive a fifth loss and win MVP. His stats aren’t as good or consistent as 2016 Matt Ryan’s were. Just have to hope the Falcons do some Falconing and the Rams prevail.

2025 NFL Stat Oddity: Week 1

Earlier this week, I decided my Super Bowl LX pick is Ravens over Packers, and for about 10 hours on Sunday, that looked great. But the Ravens did what they do best by blowing their 8th multi-score lead in the second half of a game since 2022 – three more than any other team in that time.

That 41-40 finish in Buffalo will be the leading candidate for Game of the Year until something can even think of topping it. The game was also dramatically different from the rest of a Week 1 where no other team even scored 35 points until the Bills and Ravens both did it.

This was shaping up to be the lowest-scoring Week 1 in 15 years, though the 81 points here may have saved it from that claim. Still, we had a ton of low-scoring games, which meant a ton of close games as 12 of the 15 games so far (Vikings-Bears pending) had a comeback opportunity with four delivering comeback wins.

It was a fun start to the season, and we still have to see what J.J. McCarthy and Ben Johnson can bring to the NFC North race.

Ravens at Bills: Game of the Week Year with Familiar Ending

Well, I can no longer say we haven’t had a Josh Allen vs. Lamar Jackson game where both threw the ball really well. But what a massive letdown for the Ravens, who should have been able to get a tiebreaker for home-field advantage by winning this game over a Buffalo team that gets every big game at home this year.

They might get everyone at home in January too after this, and this loss could be the beginning of the end for John Harbaugh in Baltimore.

At some point, you can’t keep doing the same thing over and over and expect different results. That’s the definition of insanity. For whatever reason, Harbaugh’s Ravens blow leads like this more than any team in the NFL, and it wasn’t always like this.

  • The Ravens lost four games with a 15-point lead from 1996-2021, but they have done so four times since 2022 alone (twice to Buffalo).
  • From 2008-17, Harbaugh’s Ravens (Joe Flacco era) were 84-13 (.866) when leading by at least 9 points at any point in the game.
  • From 2018-25, Harbaugh’s Ravens (Lamar Jackson era) are 69-15 (.821) when leading by at least 9 points any point in the game.

That may look like a modest decline, but it’s more pronounced since 2022 when the Ravens are 33-10 (.767) in such games despite being an annual Super Bowl contender each year with great defenses and an MVP-worthy quarterback.

I don’t have the time today to go through all the losses, but I know a common theme has been bad ball security coming back to bite the Ravens. This is what I struggled with when writing the Baltimore preview for 2025. Can we conclude coaching is at fault when players fumble the ball, throw interceptions, muff kicks, drop 2-point conversions, or drop game-sealing interceptions with such frequency in big spots?

No coach, let alone Harbaugh, can grip the ball for these players. There’s only so many ways you can preach ball security in practice, but that doesn’t mean a lick on game day if someone punches the ball out.

It’s not like Harbaugh had Rashod Bateman taking a jet sweep with the Ravens clinging to a one-score lead. That was Derrick Henry, on a monster night for him, who fumbled with 3:10 left, putting the Bills 30 yards away from the end zone and making this comeback doable.

Don’t forget rookie kicker Tyler Loop missed the extra point after Henry’s last touchdown run, which would have made it a 16-point game with 11:42 left. Don’t forget when Awuzie dropped an interception with 10:48 left while the Ravens led 40-25.

Those aren’t on the coach, and things like this happen so frequently to Baltimore in big spots. But Harbaugh is the coach, the common link between these games, so he is going to take the blame.

But you should try to put the blame on spots where coaching has an impact. The Ravens had a poor end of each half, calling a terrible play to Justice Hill out of a timeout in the second quarter that short-circuited a drive where the Ravens kicked a field goal a little sooner than they needed to, leaving some seconds on the play clock.

Buffalo got the ball back and made sure every single one of those last 25 seconds counted. Baltimore played a soft prevent and Allen was able to complete a pass to Kincaid for 22 yards, getting out of bounds with a generous one second left. The Bills kicked a 43-yard field goal, so that was a bad sign of things to come.

Then you go to the last two minutes. Henry fumbled, Buffalo scored, but the Ravens stopped the 2PC to keep a 40-38 lead. The Bills kicked deep, and the Ravens took over with 1:51 left. The Bills still had all three timeouts. In 2025, you have to treat this situation with a 2-point lead as if you were facing a 2-point deficit. That doesn’t mean you’re going to throw risky passes or hurry up to the line to snap it (opponent would use timeouts anyway). But you need to approach it like you need first downs, because the truth is you do.

The Ravens took a conservative approach and it cost them. The run to Zay Flowers on second down was most egregious. Then after a short completion brought up 4th-and-3 at the Baltimore 38, many thought Harbaugh should have gone for it with 1:33 left after Buffalo used its final timeout. It’s 3 yards and you win the game. It would have been the craziest example of this since Bill Belichick did 4th-and-2 at his own 28 in 2009, but is it really that crazy anymore in 2025?

I don’t care if you have the No. 1 defense in the league, which Baltimore clearly isn’t built for right now if this game is any indication. Ray Lewis, Terrell Suggs, Haloti Ngata, and Ed Reed aren’t in that lineup. But even if you had that defense, you can’t rely on stopping a team from getting into field goal range anymore, and these kickers can make from 60-plus yards now. The game has changed.

Put the ball in Jackson’s hands and let him have a run-pass option. I’d probably give him a 60% chance to convert there, if not higher. Game over if he comes through. But even if he fails, you still have some advantages here with all three timeouts. Maybe you stop Buffalo after 3 snaps and they kick a field goal. Maybe they miss.

Granted, the same thing could have happened. The Bills use several plays to get a couple of first downs and kick a short field goal to win the game 41-40. But at least you would have had the chance on 4th-and-3 to end things on your own terms with the player you believe was robbed of a third MVP.

They didn’t do it, and Harbaugh said he trusted the defense, and he’s going to keep trusting his defense.

If that’s the case, why would we ever trust anything to change with the Ravens? They’re just going to keep making mistakes in big spots. Buffalo has their number. Josh Allen has 5 career wins that are either divisional round playoff games or comebacks of 15+ points, and four of those games are against Baltimore.

Never mind the Kansas City hurdle the Ravens haven’t solved save for one night in 2021 when CEH fumbled in game-winning field goal range. Speaking of fumbles, by recovering Henry’s, the Bills are now +18 in lost fumble recoveries since 2024 and they haven’t lost the turnover battle in 23 games (NFL record). Unreal streak that keeps defying all odds to continue.

Alas, guess what else was different about that 2021 Kansas City win? Harbaugh went for it that night, letting Lamar run on 4th-and-1 at his own 43 with just over a minute left to ice the game.

I guess 1 yard doesn’t scare him as much as 3 yards, but if you’re still coaching scared with Lamar as your quarterback in 2025, maybe someone else needs to be his coach in 2026.

Steelers at Jets: Have a Day, Aaron Rodgers

I thought for sure this would be an ugly game to watch as Steelers openers usually are in the last decade. Then when you consider all the new players, the way Aaron Rodgers and D.K. Metcalf didn’t get any work in the preseason in this new offense, and the revenge game factor for Justin Fields and the Jets, and I was expecting a field goal fest.

Well, it ended up being the shootout of the afternoon as the Steelers’ high-priced defense with several Hall of Fame candidates had no real answers for Fields, who had one of the best games of his career.

After Rodgers took a sack on his opening play, then watched Metcalf drop his first target, it felt like this was going to be a shit-tacular day. But Rodgers impressed me by converting multiple third-and-longs, he still showed great accuracy and arm strength, and he carried this offense on a day where the running game was marginal (54 yards) and the defense was of little help.

Metcalf finished with 83 yards, Jonnu Smith caught a touchdown on a push pass, and it ended up being Jalen Ramsey who delivered the hit stick on Garrett Wilson to secure the win after Chris Boswell drilled a 60-yard field goal that might have been good from 70. Ice cold kick, like a serial killer would make.

My two big stats on Fields have been 0-22 when the opponent scores more than 20 points and 2-18 at 4QC opportunities. Add another loss to each. In fact, I did a live bet on Steelers ML at +370 when they were down 26-17 because I saw them scoring again and keeping that streak alive. Sure enough, the Jets fumbled a kickoff and Rodgers and Boswell delivered.

Fields played very well and was about the last reason the Jets lost this game. But sure enough, when he’s got the ball in the final minute with a chance to go get a field goal to win the game, he can’t beat the pass rush and goes four-and-out. Par for the course for him.

The Jets have now blown 7 fourth-quarter leads going back to last year, the most in the NFL. The offense was far better than expected, but the defense was like nothing ever changed.

And they let Rodgers get the last laugh.

Lions at Packers: On Script

This game was more or less what I expected with Detroit trying to adjust to new coordinators and the Packers feeling hyped about the Micah Parsons trade. Still, I wouldn’t have counted on the Lions to only rush for 46 yards on 22 carries, or for Jared Goff to have one of the least effective 31-for-39 games you’ll ever see.

Jordan Love was strong early to build the lead, and the Packers basically just cruised the rest of the way. Parsons made his impact felt with a sack in the fourth quarter.

It’s a good statement win for the Packers in their quest to reclaim the NFC North. We’ll see where these teams are for the rematch on Thanksgiving (Week 13).

Bengals at Browns: Comical Regression

From my Bengals preview in July:

“However, I’m willing to bet things work out for the Bengals this year, even if it’s by pure, dumb luck. A random bounce going their way with a turnover on defense, a clutch kick going their way for a change, and maybe Burrow will even win a game or two that the Bengals trail in the closing minutes just to spite me.”

It only took one game for several of these things to happen:

  • After the Browns took a 16-14 lead in the third quarter, they were scoreless on their final six drives, never needing more than a field goal on any of them.
  • Joe Flacco’s pass to Battle was deflected off his hands into the Bengals for an interception that put Joe Burrow at the Cleveland 34 where he moved the ball 17 yards for a go-ahead field goal, after getting the offense’s only first down of the second half, and producing a precarious 17-16 lead.
  • At one point in the fourth quarter, Burrow took three consecutive sacks that each lost 6 yards.
  • That helped Cleveland start its ensuing drive at the Cincy 42 with 6:56 left, but kicker Andre Szmyt, in his NFL debut, missed a 36-yard field goal with 2:22 left. He missed the extra point in the third quarter, creating this situation.
  • The Bengals went three-and-out, then Flacco was intercepted again.
  • Flacco got one more chance from his 1-yard line with 19 seconds left, and the clock ran out on the Browns in a tough loss.

The Bengals needed a hotter September start, the defense needed to play better, but let’s hope they didn’t blow all their luck in Week 1 because what the fvck was this performance?

Burrow passed for 113 yards as the offense only finished with 141 yards. Cleveland had 327 yards but failed to score after a good start. The Bengals are the first team since the 2015 Raiders to win a game with under 150 yards of offense and not scoring more than 17 points. The day the pass rush killed Brock Osweiler in Denver.

The Jaguars played some solid defense against Carolina, so I’ll be curious to see how the Bengals fare next week after this absurd game.

49ers at Seahawks: The Catch IV?

Just think of how many great touchdown catches to win playoff games the 49ers have in their history from Dwight Clark to Terrell Owens to Vernon Davis. You’re probably not going to attach “The Catch IV” label to a Week 1 game, but what backup tight end Jake Tonges did in Seattle on Sunday was really cool and memorable.

The 49ers were hurting again. George Kittle, a Seattle serial killer, left the game after a touchdown with a hamstring injury. Jauan Jennings was injured again.  Brandon Aiyuk is still out. The 49ers needed someone to step up as kicker Jake Moody is a bum who missed more kicks in a tight game.

Insert Jake Tonges, who has been in the NFL since 2022 but never registered a receiving target before Sunday. Yet there he was on the game-winning drive, hauling in three passes for 15 yards and snagging away a touchdown with 1:34 left to take a 17-13 lead.

Sam Darnold led some nice comebacks last year for Minnesota, but he was tested here against an elite front. On the day, he managed to throw for 124 of his 150 yards to Jaxon Smith-Njigba, the clear WR1 in Seattle with Tyler Lockett (Titans) and D.K. Metcalf (Steelers) gone.

But after finding JSN for 40 yards, Darnold was 9 yards away from the end zone before Nick Bosa stripped him of the ball and the 49ers recovered to seal it for new (but returning) defensive coordinator Robert Saleh. It’s exactly the kind of game the 49ers were losing last year, so it’s a positive sign they got this one in the win column.

Dolphins at Colts: Another Day Closer to Death Indeed

Yeah, Mike McDaniel isn’t seeing October at this rate. Falling behind 30-0 and allowing Daniel Jones to score on all seven of his possessions is nasty work. But it’d be different if the offense was at least competitive. Instead, Tua Tagovailoa had arguably the worst game of his career with three turnovers and a 2.7 QBR. He just had no success against a Colts defense that lacks stars.

Daniel Jones being this year’s Sam Darnold would be something, but until further notice, this probably had a lot to do with how inept the Dolphins are right now. But I did say the Colts had a solid roster, quarterback aside, and rookie tight end Tyler Warren came as advertised with 79 yards on 8 touches.

Buccaneers at Falcons: Is Michael Penix the MUPE (Most Unlucky Player Ever)?

When Bijan Robinson took that short pass 50 yards for a touchdown in the game’s opening minutes, I thought we’d be getting the shootout these teams had in Atlanta last year when Kirk Cousins threw for over 500 yards.

But this was a surprisingly defensive battle. The Atlanta pass rush showed it was improved and got after Baker Mayfield frequently, causing him to barely average over 5.0 yards per attempt. He even ended up leading the game in rushing (39 yards) after Bucky Irving (14 carries for 37 yards) and Robinson (12 for 24 yards) were contained on the ground. I’d say the Bucs missed Liam Coen calling the offense, but it’s also a tough division game.

Special teams were really feast or famine for both teams in this one. But the Falcons were down 17-13 in the fourth quarter when they went on an epic march of 91 yards in 18 plays with plenty of penalties, two replay reversals, and do-overs for an Atlanta offense that struggled to close drives. Eventually, Michal Penix showed great scrambling ability and athleticism to stretch out for a 4-yard touchdown run on 4th-and-goal with 2:17 left to take a 20-17 lead.

But Mayfield finally found a rhythm and threw a 25-yard touchdown pass to Emeka Egbuka with 59 seconds left for the rookie’s second score of the game. However, kicker Chase McLaughlin missed the extra point, a huge one that kept it a 23-20 game instead of making the Falcons need a touchdown in a minute. Just huge.

Penix, with his two timeouts, did a really nice job of getting the team in range, but the drive eventually stalled once he was out of timeouts and had to play against the clock in addition to the defense. Still, a 44-yard field goal should be very makeable for any kicker today, and Younghoe Koo has generally been a good kicker.

But to send this game to overtime, Koo was wide right with 0:02 left and that’s how the Bucs held on for this big NFC South win. Circle this one.

I’ve said for years how Tom Brady was never the GOAT but always the LOAT, the Luckiest of All Time. Well, we should try to figure out which quarterback deserves the title of the unluckiest of all time, and since UOAT is an ugly acronym, I was thinking we could use “MUPE” to stand for Most Unlucky Player Ever.

I’d also workshop these ideas:

  • DUP – Doomed Unluckiest Player
  • DUPE – Doomed Unluckiest Player Ever
  • MOAT – Misfortune of All Time

Penix has only started four games in the NFL, but he’s gone 0-3 in the last three starts with these things happening:

  • Led a game-tying touchdown drive vs. Washington before his kicker missed a 56-yard game-winning field goal and his defense allowed a game-winning touchdown drive in overtime where he never touched the ball.
  • Led two game-tying touchdown drives in fourth quarter vs. Carolina before his defense allowed game-winning touchdown in an overtime where he never saw the ball again.
  • Led a go-ahead touchdown drive with 2:17 left before the defense gave up the lead, then his kicker missed a 44-yard field goal that would have forced overtime.

This might be on brand for the Falcons as a franchise historically, but this is still a lot to take for a 3-game sample. We’ll see if Minnesota adds to Penix’s woes in prime time next week.

Texans at Rams: Puka Is Always Open

14-9? Okay, where’s the other half of scoring? That’s it?

It was a game where each team had nine possessions, but the Texans never found the end zone and the Rams had their share of struggles. But credit to the Rams for forcing some huge takeaways, including a late fumble by Houston’s Dare Ogunbowale just as he crossed into the red zone with 1:43 left.

One thing the Rams can always count on is Puka Nacua getting open and making the catch. He finished with 10 catches for 130 yards while Davante Adams had 4 catches for 51 yards in his team debut. It’s easy to see who is still clearly WR1 here.

Giants at Commanders: August Is Not Real

Yeah, I should have seen this one coming before still taking the over. The 2025 Giants had the most prolific passing offense of the 21st century in the preseason when they averaged 345.0 passing yards and 35.7 points per game.

But that’s August, that’s fool’s gold. Sure enough, in Week 1 of a game that counts, the Giants scored 6 points and had 157 net passing yards in Russell Wilson’s debut. Brian Daboll is already getting asked if he’s committing to Wilson as his starter for Week 2 after the Giants punted on six of their nine drives.

Throw in that brutal schedule and we’ll see rookie Jaxson Dart start games down the line. Maybe sooner than later.

But it could have been a little smoother for Washington, which botched the end-of-half drive where a grounding penalty ran out the clock in the red zone. Then they had to punt their first three drives in the second half. But Jayden Daniels still found his way to 21 points, keeping the scoring streak alive in Washington, after Deebo Samuel stamped off a great game with a touchdown run to give him 96 yards from scrimmage on eight touches.

We’ll get a real litmus test for Washington against the Packers this Thursday night. But clearly, the preseason is no litmus test for anything in the NFL. The Giants still stink offensively under Daboll.

Raiders at Patriots: Favored in 11 Games, Eh?

There were some bad performances in Week 1, but I think the Patriots have to rank among the worst because of what it does to expectations this season. This team was somehow favored to win 11 games when the betting lines came out in May. Their preseason win total was still O/U 8.5, but they were favored in 11 individual games, which always felt way too high for this team.

But if you can’t beat the Raiders at home, you might not be even sniffing 8 wins this year. Could anyone actually tell if Mike Vrabel was coaching the team on Sunday? Was that just Jerod Mayo with Druski’s excellent makeup team making him look like Vrabel?

This was a bad performance. The Patriots shut down Ashton Jeanty (19 carries for 38 yards and a short touchdown), but Geno Smith shredded them for 362 yards with many big completions. He converted a 3rd-and-20 late in the game while the Pats still trailed 20-10, which was a dagger.

New England’s offense put the ball in Drake Maye’s hands 54 times, but all he could produce was 13 points on 11 drives. One missed field goal isn’t doing that many favors. The Patriots are going to have to play much better than this or they won’t stray far from the 4-13 record they’ve had the last two years.

Titans at Broncos: Looked Like Two Rookie Debuts at Quarterback

It may not mean a thing, but I think Denver blew a golden opportunity to establish some fear in the AFC West that this could be the team’s year. They were an 8.5-point home favorite against a flawed Titans team starting rookie quarterback Cam Ward in his NFL debut.

But this was a dogfight for 60 minutes in large part because Bo Nix played like he was a rookie in his first game. The Nix who struggled last September showed up again as he threw a couple of picks and couldn’t sustain drives.

Fortunately, the Denver defense was legitimate. The Titans scored 12 points on four field goal drives that covered a grand total of 65 yards. That’s impressive defense. Even when Marvin Mims muffed a punt in the fourth quarter that gave the Titans a great chance to take the lead in a 13-12 game, the Denver defense sacked Ward for 27 yards on consecutive plays to knock them out of range.

That’s when the running backs took over with rookie R.J. Harvey showing off his speed on a 50-yard run, then veteran J.K. Dobbins scored from 19 yards out. I’m surprised Sean Payton later didn’t go for a 54-yard field goal to make it 23-12 and cover the spread. But he watched Nix throw incomplete on 4th-and-8 instead. Weird.

But the defense came up with one more stop, including a strip-sack on fourth down as Ward went down six times in an expectedly rough debut. Still, the scoreboard should have been much worse for the Titans.

Cardinals at Saints: Bland Jerseys Prevail Against Power Rangers

This was a bland game to look at with the Cardinals’ jerseys looking like they were waiting to be filled in with more red. I don’t know how much Kyler Murray was feeling under the weather with a reported illness, but he only threw for 163 yards and took 5 sacks as the Cardinals were never able to blow this one open against what is expected to be one of the worst teams this season.

But behind Spencer Rattler, the Saints found themselves in a 20-13 game late with a reasonable situation to tie or take the late lead on a 2-point conversion. But punching the ball in from the red zone was something Rattler struggled with on the final two drives. He ended up throwing three straight incompletions from the Arizona 18 to end the upset attempt.

The Saints actually finished with more first downs and yards than the Cardinals in a respectable debut for rookie coach Kellen Moore. But they’ll have to clean some things up after 13 penalties for 89 yards.

Panthers at Jaguars: Generational Weather Delay

You had a lot of “generational talent” on display in this game with two No. 1 picks at quarterback and Travis Hunter made his NFL debut. But Bryce Young might be in danger of getting benched after Week 2 for the second year in a row because this was bad just like much of his early career starts.

The 26-10 final doesn’t even do it justice because he tried to get the pass away on a fourth down in the fourth quarter that was returned 75 yards for a pick-six, but he got bailed out by a holding penalty and threw a touchdown on the next play. This could have easily been 30-3 with Jacksonville not even playing close to their best (or so it seems).

But the running game was strong (200 yards) for coach Liam Coen’s debut, and the defense obviously took care of business before and after the hour-long lightning delay. We’ll keep following the Travis Hunter story, but he finished playing 45 snaps (39 offense, 6 defense). That’s not a high number at all, but I guess they’re easing him in slowly.

Still, I would have thought him being a full-time corner and a part-time receiver in certain packages (hurry up, end of halves, third downs) made the most sense. Reportedly this is a fluid situation they’ll adjust for opponent. Guess we’ll just have to see what they’re cooking here for the coach I picked to win the AFC South and Coach of the Year award.

Next week: Really solid TNF with Commanders-Packers, but we’ll see Monday night how exciting Vikings-Falcons might be on SNF. Don’t like the MNF double-header happening (TB-HOU, LV-LAC), but at least it looks like the games aren’t overlapping this time. Sunday afternoon is really all about the Super Bowl rematch as Patrick Mahomes tries to avoid the first 3-game losing streak of his career.

NFL Stat Oddity: Week 15

I was right that Chiefs-Chargers set too high of a bar for a quality game in Week 15. But in terms of pure craziness? The weekend gave it its best shot. Who could have imagined we’d see Bill Belichick and Tom Brady both lose by two scores in prime time with Carson Wentz and Taysom Hill playing like quarterbacks from 1928?

But you kind of had to expect a wild Sunday in the NFL with so many games having a huge point spread. Maybe in other seasons this would have been dull, but not in 2021. We didn’t even get to the COVID-delayed games yet, but we’ve already seen the 1-11-1 Lions down the 10-3 Cardinals, and the Ravens gave Green Bay all it could handle with Tyler Huntley at quarterback.

At least we saw the post-Urban Jaguars still lose 30-16 despite being favored over a bad Houston team. Also, the Falcons lost 31-13 in San Francisco and scored three points on two drives where they hit 49-yard passes – very on brand for the red-zone rejects. The Dolphins have also followed up their seven-game losing streak with a six-game winning streak to get back to .500 by beating the Jets if anyone cares. No? I figured as much.

The Bills and Cowboys both had comfortable wins over the Panthers and Giants respectively in their hope to stay relevant as contenders this year. A Buffalo-Dallas Super Bowl would be on brand in this era of “let’s do everything from the 90s again.” If they can make another Matrix movie and reboot Sex and the City…

But while this season has been begging for something different to happen at the end, it’s still not far-fetched to think we see Aaron Rodgers repeat as MVP, and Championship Sunday is just another day of rematches (BUF-KC and TB-GB) setting up another Super Bowl rematch.

Oh, did you think last night invalidates Tampa Bay? Then you don’t understand how Brady’s luck works. I hope I’m completely wrong, but I think this week will just be a blip before a familiar ending in January and February. A little Christmas gift of joy that you’ll forget before Groundhog Day rears its ugly head.

This season in Stat Oddity:

Saints at Buccaneers: 9-0? MVP? GTFO!

Tom Brady has matched Joe Montana once again. Brady and Montana are the only two quarterbacks in the Super Bowl era to get shut out as a double-digit favorite. Montana did it in his second (and final) season with the Chiefs in 1994, a 16-0 loss to the Rams early in the season when Montana was favored to win by 14.5. Brady has been swept again by the Saints despite being an 11.5-point home favorite this time. Instead of winning the NFC South for the first time since 2007, the Buccaneers are left with a perplexing result and a long list of injuries.

Brady proved once again that he saves his best luck for the postseason as the Saints made him look bad with another multiple turnover game in the third shutout of his career. It’s the first Brady shutout since he lost 21-0 to a 2006 Miami team coached by Nick Saban and quarterbacked by Joey Harrington.

But this one was in prime time for all to see. Brady’s first pass of the night should have been intercepted by Marshon Lattimore, but the pass was dropped. I thought that would be a sign of things to come, but the Buccaneers punted. Then they punted again, and again, missed a field goal, punted three more times, and then Brady started really getting off his game with bad deep shots and a comical fumble after trying to scramble. Throw in a couple more punts and a late interception, and the Saints turned Tampa away on 13 drives for one of the most improbable shutouts in history.

According to NBC, it’s the first time since the merger that the team leading the NFL in scoring was shutout at home in December or January. Add that to the Brady record list.

Of course, there is going to be an outcry to the injuries Tampa Bay suffered in this game. They were unusually high profile and significant. Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Leonard Fournette did not finish the game. With Antonio Brown (suspension), Giovani Bernard (IR), and Breshad Perriman (COVID list) also inactive, the deepest set of skill players in the league took a big hit against a defense that has had its number the last two seasons.

But in terms of winning this game, I don’t want to hear about injuries when for more than three-quarters of the game, all Brady needed was a touchdown drive to take the lead. If this is your supposed GOAT and MVP, then how can he get shut out like this? Do you really need to walk on water to score one touchdown drive with Gronk, Ronald Jones, Scotty Miller, Tyler Johnson, Cameron Brate, O.J. Howard, and what’s supposed to be a top-tier offensive line? Not to mention that trio of Evans/Godwin/Fournette still combined for 23 touches and 130 yards from scrimmage. They were still shutout with them.

I don’t want to hear about one team’s injuries when the Saints were missing key offensive linemen (both tackles), haven’t had Michael Thomas all year, Deonte Harris is suspended, and there really isn’t a great playmaker outside of Kamara. Not to mention Jameis Winston tore his ACL in the last game against Tampa Bay or else this team could be dangerous right now. Still the No. 7 seed going into Monday regardless of all the injuries.

Oh yeah, the Saints did all this without their head coach.

Sean Payton gets credit for a win in a game he didn’t attend because of his COVID diagnosis. Maybe he helped with meetings during the week, but it’s still weird to me that a coach gets credit, win or loss, for games he didn’t actually coach. This also happens to be the biggest spread of Payton’s career as the Saints weren’t an underdog like this before his arrival after the Hurricane Katrina season (2005).

Maybe Payton’s absence is why the defense was so good (wink wink). But really, it was an incredible effort by Cameron Jordan and the guys to make up for an offense that did so little. The Saints had three offensive plays that gained 10+ yards all night and they were all Marquez Callaway receptions. I’ve never seen anything like that before. The Saints had 11 first downs and were 3-of-16 on third down. Alvin Kamara had 11 carries for 18 yards. Taysom Hill (13-of-27 for 154 yards) could barely throw with his injured finger and his talent level in general, and he only rushed for 33 yards this time.

Yet the Saints still won by two scores. The key this time? They didn’t turn the ball over once. Hill absolutely tried to, but the defense did not capitalize this time like they did four times in the playoff win in New Orleans, the worst game Drew Brees played in a Saints uniform. There was also that crucial Jared Cook fumble that we don’t talk enough about when the Saints were looking to go up two scores.

If it wasn’t for that game, this Tampa Bay team should be viewed as a big fraud that doesn’t step up in big games. Instead, they got to win a Super Bowl at home and can’t be counted out to repeat. Yes, not even after this 9-0 shocker.

Unfortunately, I’m not seeing this as a real season-changing game. Sure, it might take Tampa Bay out of the top seed and Brady out of an MVP he never deserved, but is there really a seeding that would be problematic for this team? The only way might be if the Saints use this to go on a run and claim the No. 7 seed and meet up with this team in Tampa again as a 7-2 matchup. The Saints definitely have Tampa’s number, but do you really see this playing out well for the third time this year? There’s no blueprint behind “play them like the Saints, hope for mass injuries, and hope all your key sacks/pressures come on third down.”

Especially when Antonio Brown will be back (even though Bruce Arians is a liar who said he’d cut him after one mistake). Evans, Godwin, and Fournette should be back for the playoffs. Still have Gronk, who only played six snaps in the first loss to the Saints. You know, all that actual value that makes Tampa so dangerous should be back when it matters most. The rest of the schedule is a cakewalk (Jets between Carolina twice) too, so it’s not like the Bucs need to rush their studs back to finish 13-4.

Meanwhile, the Saints could still easily miss the playoffs after going 4-0 against the Packers, Patriots, and Buccaneers. That’s what happens when you get owned by Sam Darnold/Panthers and Daniel Jones/Giants in such a weird season. But things certainly could have been different if Winston was not injured in the last Tampa Bay game. Then again, maybe Winston turns the ball over trying to stick it to his former team.

The Saints were able to sweep the Bucs again this year by having zero giveaways and five Brady takeaways in those two games. The role was reversed in the playoff game, which is why Tampa Bay won. I had to laugh at NBC’s Cris Collinsworth talking about Brady having answers for the Saints in that playoff game. He had two answers: drop my picks and let me start inside your 40 three times. The Saints obliged, and the rest is history.

Props to the Saints for playing hard and showing that they didn’t want their season to end Sunday night. I just wish I saw more season-changing ramifications from this game, other than me losing thousands in gambling wins (MVP race) while still seeing Brady and the Bucs in good shape to repeat.

But it was a nice early Christmas present to watch 9-0 take place.

Packers at Ravens: Go for Two Early (For a Change)

Who saw this being the big shootout of the day with the most dramatic ending? Well, I can take some credit for that one.

I liked Aaron Rodgers to have another big day with the injuries in the Baltimore secondary. Outside of the opening drive and the last two when he could have put the game away, he did not disappoint. But even with Lamar Jackson out, I thought the 9-point underdog Ravens had a shot to be very competitive. Most Baltimore games are close and this team has been scrapping since Week 1 with all the injuries. This also is the fourth game in a row where the Packers allowed at least 28 points.

Tyler Huntley likely made himself a lot of future money with his performance in his last three appearances. He’s certainly looked better than Jordan Love so far, and I’d gladly take him in Pittsburgh over Mason Rudolph. Huntley is not quite as elusive as Lamar, but he still rushed for 73 yards and two touchdowns, giving the Packers fits at times. Tight end Mark Andrews (136 yards and two touchdowns) also looked like prime Gronk, which does not bode well if that matchup comes up in the playoffs again.

But the Ravens had a couple of fourth-down failures that left them in a tough spot, down 31-17 in the fourth quarter. Nothing indefensible, but just bad execution. Still, the talk of the game again became John Harbaugh’s decision to go for a two-point conversion (2PC) when he did. This has come up in three straight games now for the Ravens, including the Pittsburgh loss when they went for the win with 12 seconds left and Lamar didn’t get the pass to Andrews. It also happened last week against Cleveland when, down 24-15, the Ravens failed to convert with 8:56 left.

Baltimore is now 2-for-8 on 2PC attempts this season, and the three-game losing streak here isn’t going to make fans happy. But what I couldn’t understand in this one is why Harbaugh did not go for two when the Ravens scored their first touchdown.

Not to get back into last week’s decision again, but I guess you can say I don’t agree with the general thrust of the analytics community when it comes to a lot of 2PC decisions. I think in many cases, they should be held off until you absolutely need one, and I do not want to make the choices in a game that are more likely to lead me to needing to recover an onside kick (or two). I highly value a 9-point lead and greatly fear a 9-point deficit, which seems to be no big deal for people who prefer going for two early. But that’s not me, and based on all my years of research on comeback attempts, I don’t think I’m going to change that view.

But one 2PC decision I am totally down with that analytics will support is to go for two on your first touchdown when you’re down 14 points. Make it a 6-point game and then you can win with a touchdown and extra point on your second touchdown. If you don’t get it, then it’s still an eight-point game and you can try it to tie on your second touchdown. It makes a ton of sense. For years, coaches play down 14 as a tying situation anyway. So by going for two on the first one, you might set yourself up for a win in regulation. I’m all for it in pretty much any situation unless I think my offense is total shit against this defense. But in that case, I’m probably not expecting to score two touchdowns in the fourth quarter anyway.

Harbaugh has to know this too as the Ravens are ahead of the curve on these things. Yet, the Ravens kicked the extra point on their first touchdown at 4:47 to make it a 31-24 game. They went for two with 42 seconds left in an attempt to take a 32-31 lead, and once again a pass to Andrews was incomplete. Green Bay recovered the onside kick and the game was over, putting more doubt into Baltimore’s playoff hopes.

I think Harbaugh going for two at 4:47 would have been his best 2PC decision this month. I think Harbaugh going for two at 0:42 was his worst 2PC decision this month. When he did it in Pittsburgh, there were only 12 seconds left, so that should have been enough to win the game with the Steelers not having a good deep passing game in a stadium that is difficult to get super long field goals. No 66-yard miracle is happening at Heinz Field like it did in Detroit for Justin Tucker this year. I liked that decision that day.

But 42 seconds when Rodgers still has a timeout left? That’s too much time as he has set these up multiple times before (ask the 49ers this year). I think under 20 seconds is the ideal spot of when it’s right to go for the win like that. When you do this to take a 1-point lead, you force the opponent to go balls out aggressive for the win. No throw is off limits. But if the game is tied with 42 seconds left, Rodgers is not in four-down territory. He’s got to be a little more careful with the ball as playing hero ball in that situation can make you look foolish. As someone who studied under Brett Favre, he knows better than most.

But the fact is in a tied game you are more likely to get a conservative approach from the opponent with 42 seconds left. Then when it comes to overtime, they may never see the ball a la the Chargers on Thursday against Kansas City if you take care of business with your offense. The clock is the main reason I liked the Pittsburgh 2PC call and did not like the Green Bay one on Sunday.

Baltimore (8-6) has managed to lose all of these games and will have to fight just to make the playoffs, let alone win the division. I could easily see a 8-7-1 Pittsburgh team going into Baltimore to take on a 9-7 Ravens team in the final game of the regular season. That might be the best game on the Week 18 schedule if things fall into place for it.

But the Ravens need to find a win in Cincinnati or against the Rams first. Maybe even a game that does not come down to us arguing about Harbaugh’s 2PC decision.

Titans at Steelers: Fumbled the Top Seed

Over 10 hours later, I’m still shocked the Steelers won this one. They trailed 13-3 at halftime and were outdone at every phase.

The offense couldn’t buy a third-down conversion or open a running lane for Najee Harris, and that really never improved after halftime either. The Steelers finished 2-of-11 on third down and Harris had 12 carries for 18 yards. Ben Roethlisberger’s touchdown pass streak ended at 27 games, and this is the first game in his career where Pittsburgh won despite not breaking 200 yards of offense (168). In fact, it’s only the second time during his career where they won like that as they had 127 yards in a 19-11 win over the 2010 Titans when he was suspended.

The defense could not stop the run again as D’Onta Foreman had 108 of the team’s 201 rushing yards. Imagine if Derrick Henry played, not to mention A.J. Brown or if Julio Jones didn’t leave again with his hamstring bothered. Devin Bush dropped a red-zone pick on Tennessee’s only offensive touchdown drive. Some of Ryan Tannehill’s best throws were dropped or fumbled by his receivers as the Steelers got solid pressure on him, but stopping the run is still a nightmare for this unit.

The special teams had terrible punts and coverage again. Chris Boswell even missed a 56-yard field goal before halftime on a cold day, but that kick never should have been that long. That happened because Mike Tomlin mismanaged the clock, not using his timeouts to save the offense a minute to respond to a 19-play drive by the Titans, who were getting the ball to start the third too. Roethlisberger only had 12 seconds at his own 22 to work with but still did a good job to put Boswell in position for an attempt.

It was another shitshow from a team that’s been getting clobbered in the first half for a month. So, what were the magic adjustments in the second half to spark the 19-13 comeback win? Simply put, the Titans kept turning the ball over. Pittsburgh’s defense made some good plays, but also caught some breaks with Tennessee’s lesser skill players putting the ball on the ground. They also got a tipped pick from Tannehill in the fourth quarter.

But even with the outstanding field position, Pittsburgh’s offense kept stalling. The Steelers started three straight drives at the Tennessee 41 or better after turnovers, and they gained two first downs and settled for three field goals. The last two field goal drives were technically three-and-out performances.

It was on the defense to make one more stop with Tannehill having 4:29 to drive for the go-ahead touchdown. This half, Tomlin had burned two of his timeouts foolishly, so it was looking like the Steelers might give up the go-ahead score with under 30 seconds left. But another critical sack changed things, and on fourth-and-7, Tannehill got into the business of throwing short of the sticks. Westbrook-Ikhine, who dropped a 40-yard bomb earlier in the game, was unable to gain the first down after a great tackle by corner Joe Haden, who returned in the nick of time for this one. It was absurd that the spot was so good for Tennessee when he clearly was never that close to converting, but replay got it sorted out and the Steelers held on for the much-needed win.

NFL teams who rush for 200 yards and hold their opponent under 200 net yards were 366-8-1 (.977) since the merger. But add a ninth loss to that stat for the Titans on Sunday. Losing the turnover battle 4-0 is the simplest way to lose a game like this.

What does it mean? The Titans (9-5) should be safe for the division, though they’ll need an upset of Kansas City to reclaim the top seed. As for Pittsburgh (7-6-1), I still think there’s nothing more on brand for Tomlin than to go 8-8-1, miss the playoffs due to a tie with Detroit, and keep up this “he’s never had a losing season!” thing. Lose in Kansas City, beat the Browns on MNF in Ben’s last home game, and have a hell of a finale in Baltimore in Week 18.

That’s really the best-case scenario at this point, and this goofy win makes it possible.

Cardinals at Lions: Broken Arizona

Matthew Stafford vs. 2021 Cardinals: 1-1. Jared Goff vs. 2021 Cardinals: 1-0. So, who really won that trade?

Jokes aside, this week was a f’n disaster for Arizona after losing to the Rams on Monday night, losing DeAndre Hopkins for possibly the season, and getting clobbered by the 1-11-1 Lions in Detroit. I liked Detroit +12.5, but my goodness, this was a wire-to-wire rout. Goff didn’t even have his best RB (Swift) or TE (Hockenson), yet he was 21-of-26 for 216 yards and three touchdowns while Kyler Murray struggled.

Kliff Kingsbury didn’t have a good day either. I thought he should have kicked the field goal on 4th-and-goal at the 3 while trailing 10-0 with 2:02 left. Get something on the board after a rough start, back to a one-score game, and use your timeouts to get the ball back. They went for it, failed, and the Lions drove 97 yards for a touchdown thanks to two roughing the passer penalties. Brutal.

The Cardinals had another shot to make it a game after getting a fumble in the third quarter, down 17-3. But Murray’s pass was jumped for a huge interception that set up a 6-yard touchdown drive to make it 24-3. It was boring from there as Detroit won 30-12. This is a team that had a 2-point win over Minnesota on the final play and a tie with the Steelers this year. They just blew out the former top seed in the NFC.

In fact, this is the first time the Lions beat a 10-win team by 18 points since a 27-9 win over Tampa Bay (10-6) in 1997. But that was early in the season when Tampa Bay was 5-1. The last time the Lions beat a team this bad that had 10 wins coming into the game? 38-6 over the 1991 Cowboys (12-5) in the NFC divisional round, the only Detroit playoff win since 1958.

Kneecaps were f’n devoured on this day by Dan Campbell’s boys.

Bengals at Broncos: Lock Down

A competitive, low-scoring game in Denver really turned in the fourth quarter when backup Drew Lock had the ball taken away from him on an ill-advised designed run that never had a chance. It was very close to being a play where the defender fumbled the ball back to the offense, but replay showed the defender was just down by contact after first getting the ball. That was still a contender for the wildest snap of the season, and it proved costly to the Broncos, who never got past midfield again in a 15-10 loss that buries them in the AFC playoff race.

This was the second week in a row where Zac Taylor’s Bengals were playing a team nearly as shitty as they are in close games. Last week, Kyle Shanahan’s 49ers came back to win in overtime. But this time, Vic Fangio dropped to 3-13 (.188) in 4QC opportunities as Denver’s coach with Lock in the game for the injured Teddy Bridgewater.

However, a mismanaged sequence before halftime also proved costly when the Broncos failed to call a run on 3rd-and-1 at the Cincinnati 33 with 17 seconds and one timeout left. Let’s be realistic. You’re not throwing a touchdown there with Bridgewater as your quarterback. This is all about the field goal and getting that first down with your offense that has been pushing the run with your duo of backs is the goal to close out this half. Run the ball, get the first, call your last timeout, then maybe you could try one throw at the end zone before sending out the kicker. Denver threw an incomplete pass, Brandon McManus missed the 51-yard field goal with nine seconds left, and Joe Burrow had enough time and a timeout to complete a 19-yard pass. That set up the Bengals for a 58-yard field goal that was good to take a 6-3 lead into the locker room.

Fangio does a lot of good things with the defense, but his teams lose a lot of these excruciatingly close, low-scoring games because of mismanaged situations like that and the red-zone play with Lock in the fourth quarter.

Next week: What? When does this week even end? There are two games on Monday and Tuesday, a Thursday night game, and two games on Saturday (Christmas). I suppose my main interest is to see if the Roethlisberger-era Steelers have one more crazy road upset left in them when they take on the Chiefs in Kansas City.

NFL Stat Oddity: Week 13

Wait, was that actually more of a normal week in the NFL? What does a return to “normalcy” in the NFL in 2021 even look like? It still means a week where the Lions win a game against the Vikings on the final play, the No. 1 seed Ravens lose to their bitter rival, the Dolphins stepped over Mike Glennon’s neck to continue one of the most irrelevant five-game winning streaks you’ll ever see, and the Chiefs beat Denver for the 12th time in a row.

But it was also easy wins for Tampa Bay, Arizona, and the Rams as Rob Gronkowski, DeAndre Hopkins, and Cooper Kupp all got reacquainted with the end zone, territory unbeknownst to the Falcons, Bears, and Jaguars. Jonathan Taylor vacations there every week and he scored two more times to help the Colts beat the Texans 31-0, a rout worse than the first one this season. Thanks for shitting up the product, Deshaun. But at least it was nice to see Kyler Murray and Hopkins return to action for an Arizona team that continues to win in impressive fashion, now 10-2.

Overall, we had just five close games in the fourth quarter this week. Monday night between the Bills and Patriots could be the game of the week, but I am going to start with (probably) the last time Ben Roethlisberger faces the Baltimore defense at Heinz Field. I also have a personal story to share in Broncos-Chiefs.

This season in Stat Oddity:

Ravens at Steelers: Tomlin 16, Harbaugh 14

The Ravens-Steelers rivalry may be an acquired taste, but there are no two teams I’d rather watch play a low-scoring game than these two. The 30th meeting between the Ravens and Steelers since 2008 was another memorable finish with Mike Tomlin taking a 16-14 edge against John Harbaugh with a coaching decision at the end very much being the headline.

But it is also the 21st meeting out of 30 where both coaches had their desired starting quarterback available. Tomlin is now 14-7 in those matchups compared to 2-7 with the quarterback disadvantage.

Ben Roethlisberger, 7-1 against the Ravens since Christmas 2016, may have played his final home game against his main division rival. He delivered one of his best performances of the last three years, completing 21-of-31 passes for 236 yards and two touchdowns. Diontae Johnson even dropped a 35-yard touchdown before halftime, and Ray-Ray McCloud had a 32-yard completion taken away after a suspect review. The numbers could have been even nicer for Roethlisberger, who led the Steelers to three straight scores in the fourth quarter. He now has 11 game-winning drives against the Ravens in his career.

Baltimore hogged the ball early but did not finish enough drives for points. The Pittsburgh defense fluctuated between incredible and terrible as only this 2021 unit can. The pressure was at times unbelievable, and Lamar Jackson did not handle it well, taking seven sacks and throwing a pick in the end zone on the opening drive. But there were plenty of other times where the Steelers displayed shoddy tackling and left receivers wide open.

On Pittsburgh’s game-winning drive, the Steelers had a 2nd-and-2 at the Baltimore 13 at the two-minute warning with the Ravens still having all their timeouts. I’m positive Harbaugh had the Ravens do something smart that I’ve seen them exploit before. The Ravens were blatantly offsides, giving the Steelers a first down without running clock. Had the Steelers taken a few plays to get the first down, they may have been able to run out the clock and kick a field goal on the last snap. This made it easier for the Ravens to use their timeouts and really encouraged the Steelers to convert a third down for a touchdown. They did with Roethlisberger’s pass to Johnson, who stepped up big after his drop earlier. The critical two-point conversion to Pat Freiermuth was also completed with 1:48 left.

Pittsburgh kicker Chris Boswell looked like he might be the scapegoat for this one after badly missing a game-tying extra point in the fourth quarter and bouncing his late kick-off out of bounds to put the Ravens at the 40 with a chance to tie. Again, the defense fluctuated between great and terrible as the Ravens marched for a touchdown with 12 seconds left. Instead of playing for overtime, Harbaugh had his team go for the win.

I liked the decision. Harbaugh mentioned the injuries at corner and was worried the Steelers would continue to march on their defense with ease. Beyond that, I just think the Ravens had a good shot of converting and winning the game on that one play. However, I would have preferred something that used Lamar’s mobility like a QB draw or run-pass option. T.J. Watt, who had a monster game with 3.5 sacks, was able to get just enough pressure on Jackson to make his two-point pass inaccurate for Mark Andrews, who was open to win the game.

The Steelers dodged a bullet, but this season has seen both teams win a lot of close games like this one. Pittsburgh keeps its playoff hopes alive and this could lead to a very interesting rematch in Baltimore in Week 18.

I said I enjoy the low-scoring games between those two. I’m not sure I will feel that way when Roethlisberger moves on and the Steelers are trying to win with the likes of Mason Rudolph and the latest Kordell Maddo’Donnell. But Sunday felt important for this team. You wish they showed some of this intensity in Cincinnati last week, but nothing seems to get this team going quite like a Baltimore game.

If this is the last big one for this era, then at least it ended the way it deserves to.

Broncos at Chiefs: I Should Name My Son Javonte

Do I have to talk about Kansas City’s ho-hum 22-9 win we all watched together on Sunday night, or do I jump straight to my biggest gambling win of the season?

Let’s get the game over with. The defensive turnaround for the Chiefs continues. Barring what the Patriots do on Monday night, this could be the top scoring defense in points per game since Week 6 after being the worst in the first five weeks. Remarkable stuff.

Were the Broncos lighting the league up this year? Of course not, but the nine points are only the second time Denver was held under 13 this year. Meanwhile, the Broncos held Patrick Mahomes’ offense to 16 points, Mahomes under 200 yards passing, Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill under 50 yards combined, and the Broncos still couldn’t cover a 9.5-point spread. I felt that dropped passes, including another tipped pick, contributed largely to Kansas City’s offense being ineffective in this one. But as I have pointed out before, Denver defends Mahomes better than most. This game will be another data point in favor of that for sure.

Teddy Bridgewater played a terrible game and had his second multi-interception game of the season, including a pick-six to Dan Sorensen in the fourth quarter to put the exclamation point on this one.

Well, one exclamation point. That pick-six helped give the Broncos the ball back in a 22-3 game. Perhaps that took away some of the intensity from the defense, knowing the win was all but in the bag at this point. The Broncos finally marched down the field, and instead of taking 11 minutes to come away with zero points like they did in the second quarter, Bridgewater found rookie back Javonte Williams in the flat on fourth-and-7 for a 13-yard touchdown with 5:12 left.

A meaningless touchdown in the grand scheme of things? Sure, but an extremely important one for me. It was the final leg to five parlays for me, including my biggest win of the season at +15381

The reason there was no Stat Oddity in Week 12 is because I was at home nervously waiting to hear what was going on with my mom in the emergency room. Her blood pressure was out of control, and I wasn’t allowed in the ambulance with her because of the protocol during COVID, the same virus that had just taken my only aunt from me on Thanksgiving Day. The stress of that is what caused my mom’s blood pressure to spike. She does not have COVID.

Trying to watch the Ravens and Browns finish that ugly game was a tough 90 minutes before I started to get updates that my mom was alright. She is doing better this week and will be fine. I got my booster on Wednesday, and it was no big deal. Just a sore shoulder for about 72 hours.

From dark thoughts a week ago to screams of joy at Javonte’s touchdown, these last few weeks really encapsulate the extreme ups and downs that life can bring. Sunday was that kind of day all around, from the Steelers’ nail-biting win over Baltimore to the agony and glory of watching Williams pull off a golden score for me.

It’s the type of successful betting day I feel I should have had three or four times during this crazy season. But I’m happy with this one. I thought for sure I blew it on the final leg again, and I would have blown it either way as I probably would have picked Hill or Kelce or CEH to score for the Chiefs had I not gone for Javonte. Alas, I picked the right guy who scored Denver’s only touchdown of the night in what was a golden opportunity with Melvin Gordon out. Williams shined with 178 yards from scrimmage, but that touchdown will always stick with me as a happy memory during what have been some very unhappy times during this pandemic.

But tonight, I can choose happiness.

Chargers at Bengals: What in Tarnation…

This conference is f’n weird this year. The Bengals annihilated the Steelers a week ago. The Chargers had an ugly loss in Denver. I thought this would be the closest finish in the 1 p.m. slate. So, of course the Chargers jumped out to a 24-0 lead.

However, while the Bengals did not try 8+8+8, they were a two-point conversion away from tying this one late in the third quarter as the Chargers were looking to blow another huge lead in a game with so many ugly, fluky turnovers from both sides. Austin Ekeler especially was trying to create his own Chargers BINGO square with two lost fumbles.

But Joe Mixon outdid him. The Bengals failed on their game-tying two, but they got the ball back down 24-22 going into the fourth quarter. They were in field-goal range too when Mixon just lost the ball, and it was returned 61 yards for a crushing touchdown. The Chargers led 31-22, sacked an ailing Joe Burrow (pinky), and added a knockout score in a game that eventually ended 41-22.

So, it was a blowout, then a huge comeback attempt that made it the tightest game going around 3 p.m., then a blowout again. Just a weird game where both quarterbacks were absolutely under siege at times by the defenses (10 sacks between them). But the Chargers made fewer mistakes and got the big win to move to 7-5.

49ers at Seahawks: Don’t Call it a Comeback

This was my most confident upset pick of the week. As I said on Saturday, Russell Wilson/Pete Carroll/D.K. Metcalf were due a good showing at home after such a poor run of things lately, including that Monday night loss to Washington. Wilson owns the 49ers in his career (17-4 now). Kyle Shanahan is an overrated coach. George Kittle was amazing in this game (181 yards and two touchdowns), but I think Deebo Samuel is a big security blanket for Jimmy Garoppolo, and he’s been a huge part of the running game recently. If Samuel wasn’t out injured for this game, I don’t think I would have been confident enough to pick Seattle. Certainly not enough to put $50 on them in my big parlay that hit above.

Still, it wasn’t the prettiest game. The Seahawks needed a 73-yard touchdown run on a fake punt to get things going. Wilson was an uncharacteristic 30-of-37 for 231 yards, the fewest passing yards he’s ever had in a game with at least 25 completions. He also lost 50 yards on four sacks. Tight end Gerald Everett nearly choked the game away with two lost fumbles, including one at the 2-yard line when the Seahawks could have gone up two scores in the final four minutes.

I always question Shanahan’s late-and-close decision making. The 49ers looked like they wanted to score at the last possible second and either go to overtime or win on a two-point conversion. That’s nice but things rarely work out that way. The Elijah Mitchell runs were not effective on the day, and the 49ers used two downs on them inside the Seattle 7. After one incompletion, the 49ers were already facing fourth-and-ballgame. Garoppolo’s pass was tipped at the line and that was enough for the Seahawks to hold on for the 30-23 win.

I don’t think Seattle is “back” by any means, but at least we know this team can still sweep the 49ers.

Vikings at Lions: 1-15-1 Still Possible

Bust out the Faygo for the 2008 Lions and 2017 Browns. These Lions will not be going 0-16-1. I warned in Saturday’s preview that the Vikings already came dangerously close to losing to this team this year. They had to set up a 54-yard field goal in 37 seconds to win that one.

Dalvin Cook missed both Detroit games for Minnesota, but I don’t think you can fault the way Alexander Mattison played in his place for why the Vikings struggled. Mattison had 124 yards and a touchdown in this one. Adam Thielen left injured, but Kirk Cousins still threw for 340 yards and Justin Jefferson had 182 yards. The offense came back to deliver another late lead at 27-23, but the defense was a huge letdown against Jared Goff and the league’s worst receiving corps. Goff threw for 296 yards and three touchdowns in this one, which Detroit led most of the way.

I want to quickly highlight something stupid Jay Feely said late in the game. I know that’s his brand, but the strategy is worth talking about. He criticized Dan Campbell’s aggressive move to go for a 4th-and-1 at his own 28 with a 23-21 lead and 4:08 left. It was incredibly aggressive as the Vikings had four clock stoppages, would have been in go-ahead field goal range with a stop, and the Lions were down to one timeout. In fact, I probably would have punted there.

But Feely’s reasoning just made me like the decision more. Feely tried to say that the Lions should punt because like on Thanksgiving against Chicago, the Bears ran out the final eight minutes and Detroit never got the ball back. He added that Cleveland ran out the clock on Detroit in Week 11 too. It could happen again.

Well guess what? IT’S MORE LIKELY TO HAPPEN HERE IF YOU GIVE THEM FOUR MINUTES TO SET UP A FIELD GOAL. While converting and running out the clock is the ideal outcome, by Goff getting strip-sacked and putting the Vikings in the red zone, he actually helped facilitate a quicker go-ahead score and saved his offense time for their game-winning drive. The Vikings had to score on a third down with 1:50 left, saving Goff almost two minutes to answer the 27-23 deficit.

He needed every second of it on the 14-play, 75-yard drive. The Vikings used their timeouts late in the red zone, and Mike Zimmer’s defense was shameful in allowing such a large cushion on the last play of the game when you know they have to go for the end zone. How are you going to give someone like Aroma St. Brown a cushion to score the game-winning touchdown with no time left? His name is actually Amon-Ra, but he must have had a strong aroma if you weren’t attaching someone to his hip as the only receiver to run towards the left side of the end zone. Just a ridiculous ending.

But somehow perfectly fitting for the Minnesota franchise. A lead of at least six points in every game this season and the Vikings are 5-7. I knew the Lions would win one this year. Campbell’s had them too close too many times not to.

Hurry-Up Finish

Some quick thoughts as I race to complete more tasks before getting to sleep.

Tampa Bay at Atlanta: Tom Brady for MVP (Mass Volume Player)

Leave it up to Tom Brady to throw 51 passes in a game his team never trailed, where his defense only allowed 10 points on nine drives, and it only looked semi-close because he threw an embarrassing pick-six before halftime to a defensive lineman.

Has the standard at the position fallen off so much this year that we have to seriously consider this as the front-runner for MVP? Oh, and he’ll be getting the Bills on Sunday, fresh off their huge clash with the Patriots in shitty weather and after losing Tre’Davious White to a torn ACL. You see how the stars are aligning, right? While Antonio Brown’s buffoonery leading to a suspension may have been a problem in this past, this offense is simply too loaded when Rob Gronkowski is playing this well to go along with Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Leonard Fournette, and that offensive line. Brown will be back for the playoffs too…

Washington at Raiders: No Flag, No Win

Tell me you weren’t expecting a flag when Derek Carr threw a bomb, down 17-15, with 31 seconds left to start his final drive. I cannot knock him for the smart, aggressive play to try to immediately get into range for a game-winning field goal. But something tells me he specifically threw that one with the intent to get a flag instead of a completion. The refs did not oblige, and the Raiders lost another low-scoring game to a Washington team that’s suddenly won four in a row.

Washington (6-6) has all five of its games left against the NFC East in a real scheduling quirk. The Chiefs can deliver a potential knockout blow to these Raiders (6-6) in Week 14 – that’s if they didn’t already do it in Week 10. Since their bye week, the Raiders are 1-4 and have been held under 17 points in each loss. Only the flag fest on Turkey Day in Dallas was a high-scoring win.

Eagles at Jets: Minshew Mania Returns

Will Zach Wilson ever have a game in the NFL as good as Gardner Minshew’s first surprise start for the Eagles on Sunday? It’s a legitimate question. Minshew was 20-of-25 for 242 yards and two touchdowns. This was tight end Dallas Goedert’s 57th NFL game and it was the first time he had two touchdowns to go along with a career-high 105 receiving yards. Not bad.

This was actually a shootout at first with the Jets scoring three touchdowns on their first three drives. But they soon remembered they were the Jets and scored nothing on their last five drives. The Eagles scored three touchdowns, four field goals, then punted on their eighth and final possession.

In a game between the Jets and Eagles with Wilson and Minshew getting the starts, a 33-18 finish with only one ugly Wilson interception is about the best experience you could have asked for.

Next week: Depending on how the Bills look against the Patriots on Monday night, this could be two weeks in a row where MNF draws the best game. Next week has Arizona-Rams, an important one in the NFC. While Bills-Buccaneers looked like the great one on paper from April through recently, I’m not sure these teams are delivering on expectations so far. But that won’t stop Tony Romo from salivating over it as a Super Bowl preview.