Tag: Jordan Love

2025 NFL Stat Oddity: Week 8

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

After watching the NFL turn tricks all day Sunday, I want to know where my treat is. Where’s a good, competitive game? Is it really going to come from Commanders at Chiefs on Monday night with the 12-point spread? It might have to as this Week 8 has had just 3 games with a comeback opportunity.

That’d be the fewest in any week since I’ve started doing this weekly (2011). That’s 15 seasons.

Granted, there were six teams on a bye but 13 games should be enough to get better numbers than this as it’s been blowout city with 11-of-12 games decided by double digits, and many were by three scores or more.

You know things are fvcked when Justin Fields leads the biggest comeback of the day. At least it was finished by Breece Hall, so that checks out for the brand. But yeah, two fourth-quarter lead changes is it, and the Packers still won by 10, and their “comeback” was on the first play of the quarter in the red zone.

If Chiefs-Commanders does give us four games with a comeback opportunity for the week, that would tie Week 9 in 2014 and a couple of weeks in 2021 for the fewest since 2011.

I got a late start to writing this as I had some work to take care of, but I’m pretty sure I can run through this thing in record time. Many teams didn’t give much of a shit about their effort on Sunday, so why should I pour over what they did here? I’d like to sleep in today.

A lot of this can get more detail in my QB rankings later this week, and I’m also doing an awards update (MVP) for Thursday.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Packers at Steelers: Game of the Weak Week

After a day of blowouts, I was expecting a tight, 23-20 kind of game that the Steelers would pull out. Maybe even an overtime game. But what a stunning performance from Jordan Love to go out there on Aaron Rodgers’ big night and steal the headlines and the game back from Pittsburgh after trailing 16-7 at halftime.

You know, the kind of comeback the Packers almost never made during Rodgers’ time in Green Bay. But it should be pointed out that the Pittsburgh defense never really had any edge on the Green Bay defense in this game. Yes, the run was getting stopped early with Josh Jacobs, but that dam broke a little later with the backup in there running the ball at will in the second half. But Jordan Love had a receiver drop a late-down pass to kill one drive, and his kicker missed two kicks that Chris Boswell wouldn’t have missed for Pittsburgh.

So, that 16-7 was always a bit of a mirage at the half. But what a job by Love to complete 20 passes in a row at one point, something Rodgers never even did with the Packers. Love finished with 360 yards and 3 touchdowns. This is the scary version of Green Bay we watched in Weeks 1-2 and haven’t really seen since. They got good sacks on Rodgers, who had been getting the ball away better this year. But not so much tonight as Parsons and company ate well.

The Pittsburgh defense just continues to be horrible and one of the biggest disappointments in the league. Also, this game really exposed the lack of wideouts available to Rodgers in this offense. He’s trying to use backs and tight ends like WRs, and that’s usually not a good thing for most quarterbacks, let alone one of the most wide receiver-centric passers in NFL history.

I swear that’s how you end up with Kenneth Gainwell, a running back, fumbling in the open field the way he did late in the game. That’s just not a play he’s used to making. So, I think the Steelers will make some move for a wideout before the trade deadline, but that’s not going to stop you from playing in 34-31 games.

The seeds were there Week 1 that this defense was going to be a huge problem when they made Justin Fields look good. At some point, Tomlin has to be viewed as the main problem by the mainstream media, and I swear a losing record is the only thing that will get people to turn on him.

With the Steelers’ upcoming schedule, 8-9 isn’t out of the question again. That was my original pick all spring long until I started buying into the fool’s gold of surrounding Rodgers with all of these vets. Turns out you have to actually have good schemes and be able to coach them to execute.

Missing that badly in Pittsburgh these days.

Cowboys at Broncos: Two Altitudes

I did think about the 42-17 final in Mile High in the second game of Dak Prescott’s second season (2017) this week. Probably should have mirrored that for this pick, but I gave Dallas a shot to cover the spread as Denver’s been starting games really slow and coming  back late.

However, that Dallas defense is a gift to opponents this year. Bo Nix and the running game chewed them up, and Dak had a weird game where he never completed a pass to Jake Ferguson at tight end, and the numbers for CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens look better than you’d expect against that secondary, which lost Patrick Surtian II to an injury even.

But just too much poor execution from Dallas all day, and it didn’t look aggressive enough on the road against a team that was nearly on a 70-point pace in 60 minutes if you go back to last week’s 33-point explosion in the fourth quarter.

Yes, the Broncos (6-2) are scary when they look like this, but you have to put everything into perspective. It was just a few weeks ago when they had to sack Justin Fields 9 times to seal a 13-11 win over the Jets overseas.

But Denver did a great job on this Sunday.

Jets at Bengals: Mike White Redux

Even with leads of 15 and 14 in the fourth quarter, the Bengals couldn’t close it out. That gave me some PTSD from the 2021 game, the Mike White game where he threw for 400 yards in a comeback win that Joe Burrow couldn’t close out. I’ll never get over that one as I lost about $11,000 in winning bets from that moneyline.

The 2025 Bengals may not get past this one as losing at home to the 0-7 Jets in this fashion is absurd. Giving up a comeback like this to Justin Fields? Are you shitting me? The quarterback who was 0-26 when his team allowed more than 20 points? 2-21 at 4QC opportunities? Granted, Breece Hall was actually the one who threw the game-winning touchdown on a ballsy, double-clutched decision to throw there.

But then the Bengals could have handed Aaron Glenn and Fields another loss and blown lead in this situation had they not run the ball on a 2nd-and-obvious-pass situation. That put Flacco in 3rd-and-long and pressed for time, and let’s not forget his receiver not bringing in the ball on first down to start that little series. Flacco couldn’t find anyone on the last two throws, and that was enough. The Jets finally got a win at 39-38.

Now, the Bengals (3-5) might be cooked instead of .500 again. What a league.  You kinda had to see this coming after the Woody Johnson comments about Fields earlier in the week, then the tragic news about former Jets center Nick Mangold (RIP) passing from kidney disease this weekend. Everything was pointing to statement win for the Jets, and sure enough, the Bengals helped them to one.

But that 2nd-and-10 run for a yard when you’re trying to go set up a game-winning field goal is exactly why Taylor has to go. Never mind they made Lou Anarumo the scapegoat for why their defense is garbage.

Tear it all down in Cincinnati.

Titans at Colts: Indiana Jones and the Scoring Boom

Even with game tape from Week 3 (though probably not a competent Tennessee coaching staff that can interpret it), and even with back-to-back punts in the second quarter, the Colts still efficiently dropped 38 points on few drives before calling the dogs off in the latest sweep of Tennessee.

Daniel Jones played very well again as did Jonathan Taylor showing off his speed on another 3-touchdown day. Colts-Chiefs can’t come here soon enough.

49ers at Texans: Mentee Over Mentor

The mentee (DeMeco Ryans) took care of the mentor (Kyle Shanahan) in this one as C.J. Stroud shook off a horrible Monday night game and ripped the 49ers a new one by halftime here. Think I only saw one pick that was a glaring mistake for Stroud as he was sharp.

The 49ers just weren’t very effective and did little outside of a George Kittle touchdown as promised on National Tight End’s Day, which didn’t really explode that much around the league.

But good win for Houston without Nico Collins.

Bears at Ravens: Season Saved

Only one team (1970 Bengals) has ever made the playoffs after starting 1-6, so the Ravens were in a real must-win situation without Lamar Jackson. Even though the Bears hogged the ball early, the Ravens held them to field goals. Then after an early punt, Tyler Huntley moved the offense efficiently and effectively. The Ravens scored on 6-of-7 drives at one point. A lot of field goals but the rookie kicker was good.

Then after Chicago cut the 10-point deficit into a 16-13 game in the fourth quarter, you could see the Ravens choking away another double-digit lead late. But that’s when Nate Wiggins intercepted Caleb Williams’ pass, setting up a 9-yard touchdown drive to blow the game back open and save the day.

Maybe save the season if Lamar can return this week. Guess we’ll have to see if he practices, and then see what they say about how he practiced exactly…

Bills at Panthers: Red Rifle Backfires

Oh, I’ll get to Josh Allen later this week after one of the most misleading stat lines of the season. But this was your typical get-right game for the Bills. That means multiple takeaways, forced or just backup quarterback screw-ups; it doesn’t matter. They used those plays and some great runs by James Cook to dominate this game in 40-9.

I’m glad I came to my senses late in the week and didn’t back Carolina ATS. Andy Dalton was a mess and the running game for Buffalo was much better than the Carolina backfield.

Browns at Patriots: Myles Garrett’s Historic Day Results in 32-13 Loss

Myles Garrett had 5 sacks and yet the Browns still lost 32-13. It wasn’t all offensive mistakes putting the defense in a bind again either. The Patriots had two long touchdown drives in the 3rd quarter after Garrett’s sacks kept holding Drake Maye to field goals early.

But in the end, New England blew past the Browns, and Stefon Diggs is finally on the board for a touchdown in 2025. This is probably going to be the best defense the Patriots face all year, and Maye has taken 9 sacks the last two weeks, so that is something to keep an eye on.

But this game is a great example of how defense is largely valued by unit play instead of any one individual. Garrett is officially the 20th player since 1982 to reach 5.0 sacks in a game. Those players now have a team record of 16-4, and the other three players lost by a combined 6 points in their games.

That means Garrett is the first player since 1982 to get 5.0 sacks and still lose the game by more than 3 points. Only the fourth to get 4.0 sacks and lose by more than 16 points. But when you agree to stay in Cleveland…

Buccaneers at Saints: Another Wasted Defensive Gem

Similar to how the Browns wasted Garrett’s effort vs. New England, the Saints’ offense wasted the performance of the whole defense in keeping Tampa in check.

I guess that Baker Mayfield MVP campaign went the way of Howard Dean, right? The Tampa defense won this game with a pick-six, 5 sacks, and 4 turnovers in total as the offense was pretty mid for the Bucs without Mike Evans, Bucky Irving, and Chris Godwin.

At one point, the Saints stopped the Bucs on 8 straight plays from the 1-yard line over two drives. Yes, I’m including the offsides penalty on first down that started things. Pretty crazy to watch that play out twice, though the Bucs did eventually score on the 9th play.

But just another bad day for the Saints, who benched Spencer Rattler for rookie Tyler Shough, who didn’t fare any better. Will that move be permanent next game? Probably with the way the NFL works. Guys like Rattler just don’t get a long leash.

Giants at Eagles: Skattebo Lived His Life Like a Candle in the Wind

I dunno, I guess I always thought Cam Skattebo’s first major NFL injury would be something… funny? He’d go to do a backflip celebration and land on a cameraman, or he’d headbutt a concrete wall. But a dislocated ankle was just sad to watch and you can see the impact it had on Jaxson Dart, who knows he has to get through the rest of his rookie year without a good defense, his best receiver, and now his best running back.

He also got hosed by the refs in this one as the Eagles got away with a very clear fumble on the Tush Push for a “forward progress stopped” bullshit call.

Given all the times we’ve seen the refs let them get forward progress for long after they deserved it, this call was just pure bullshit. Maybe the game plays a little differently if the Eagles don’t go up 14-7 two plays later.

But the Eagles did well without A.J. Brown. Running game was huge with 276 yards. Defense had 5 sacks. Most complete effort yet for the Eagles, and kinda what I had in mind when I picked them to cover the spread for the sake of they were “due” to win a game in blowout fashion this year.

It happened. And I’d rather not think about this game again. It signals the end of some fun times with New York’s rookie duo in the backfield. I know Thelma & Louise probably had a longer shelf life together than these two would with the way they play so recklessly, but it was really an innocent play that took Skattebo out. A shame.

Dolphins at Falcons: WTF?

Seriously, between losing 30-0 to the Panthers and now 34-10 at home to the Dolphins, I’m not sure Atlanta doesn’t have the two worst losses of 2025. The weekly variance for this team is disgusting and hard to explain.

Sure, the offense wasn’t great in this one when you replace Michael Penix Jr. with dusty-ass Kirk Cousins and no Drake London. Darnell Mooney was only coming back from injury and didn’t seem ready for the quarterback change either. That part makes some sense, though it does give you some proof that Cousins is so washed in 2025, because in any other year, he’d at least find a way to throw for 250 yards and a few touchdowns against a defense this bad. And how does Bijan Robinson not get fed the ball? It feels like they started Cousins last second and had no real plan.

But how does the defense have its worst game of the season against the trainwreck that is Tua Tagovailoa? That part I don’t get. The Dolphins’ first 3 touchdown drives were 79+ yards too, so it’s not like Tua threw 4 touchdowns on short fields. This was legit.

The Falcons are not legit, and I can’t help but look at the coach if you’re having such random results like this.

Next week: Welcome to November. While I doubt it was intentional, the Week 9 schedule does reek of “here’s some shit games to keep you busy before Chiefs-Bills takes over your life at 4:25.” And I’m okay with that. Colts-Steelers at least has some potential for good QB play. But TNF is Ravens-Dolphins, and it’s not like you ever get excited to watch Miami play. Seattle-Washington has lost some luster for SNF with the Jayden Daniels injury. Cardinals-Cowboys on MNF sounds like an opportunity to get an early start on writing.

NFL 2024 Week 9 Predictions: Groin Groans Edition

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

Even with an extra hour this weekend, I’m still very late in getting these NFL Week 9 picks ready. It’s been a long week, and with the election this Tuesday, it could be even tougher to stay productive with time (i.e. not doomscrolling and blocking pro-fascist shitbirds) this week.

But when I look at the Week 9 schedule, I think what a great time this was for Lions-Packers, what should have been the Game of the Week. Maybe it will get there, but I’m bummed out that Jordan Love has a groin injury, Josh Jacobs has an ankle injury, and they’re going to try playing in what could be a rain game. Doesn’t sound ideal at all if you ask me.

But I’m focused on a lot of streaks this week as I’ve already written about and will note below.

This Week’s Articles

NFL Week 9 Predictions

The Jets finally came through for me, and I certainly called my shot on this game:

https://x.com/ScottKacsmar/status/1852196245957132793

Pats-Titans: Oof. That’s what you call a 1 p.m. Sunday game. I think the Patriots have probably played better football, but I’m going Titans just because I’m not sure where they get another win right now, and I don’t see them going 1-16.

Saints-Panthers: Double oof. Spread is a bit high for a road favorite in a divisional game who hasn’t won a game since Week 2 and is only just getting Derek Carr back, but that speaks volumes about how bad the Panthers are on both sides of the ball right now. Saints end their losing streak here.

Broncos-Ravens: One of the most interesting games this week as I could see the Broncos winning by 1-7 points or losing by 1-24 points. No typos. Just depends which version of Bo Nix shows up, but I’m going to go with the Denver cover in a loss. Maybe a 24-16 game that looks respectable for them on the road.

Raiders-Bengals: Joe Burrow is just 5-5 SU in games where he’s a touchdown favorite, which is an abysmal record. I think the Raiders can keep it close. Backdoor cover against the Chiefs last week.

Chargers-Browns: Big expectations for a fun game between Herbert and Jameis. I could see both teams scoring 20+, but don’t expect Jameis to get away with a game-ending pick in back-to-back weeks. I’ll take the Chargers to win.

Cowboys-Falcons: Seems like two teams headed in opposite directions and the Falcons should win. But that’s why I’m going to zag on this one and think Dallas shows up when the lights aren’t bright and they can score enough this week on the road to get a late win. Minimal pass rush for Dak Prescott to worry about.

Dolphins-Bills: I never trust Miami in games like this. Josh Allen owns them and the Bills are getting back to dominating the scoreboard with the huge KC game coming soon.

Commanders-Giants; This first meeting was when the Commanders went 7-for-7 at scoring a FG on every drive. I think they move the ball well again and find the end zone a few times in this one. Daniel Jones has to be running out of chances to start games for this team.

Bears-Cardinals: Bears lost last week on a Hail Mary while the Cardinals came back from a 9-point deficit to win on the last play. Another one where I think momentum is flipped, but I’m still taking the road underdog to win as I think the Cardinals struggle to run so freely against that defense, and Caleb Williams will play better than he did last week. Arizona’s just not very trustworthy right now to stack wins.

Jaguars-Eagles: Jags are playing better but I think the Eagles looked great last week and should have few problems against this defense.

Rams-Seahawks: Could be close, but it’s as simple as the Seahawks are down DK Metcalf and the Rams have their top 2 WRs back healthy. Or at least healthy enough to play the game. Allegedly.

Lions-Packers: Teased it above but I’m going to go Lions in the first matchup. Think the Packers can beat them in Detroit though like they did last season when the road team won both matchups. Just bad timing here with Love’s groin and the way the Lions are hot offensively. Plus I assume Tom Brady is calling this game for FOX and it seems like all of his games see the favorite run away with things.

Colts-Vikings: No, I do not see the Colts playing an 11th-straight game decided by 1-6 points to tie the NFL record set by the 2010-11 Cowboys. I also don’t think they hand Minnesota a 3rd-straight loss, and that’s why I think Vikings rebound and win by 7+. Of course, this is a rematch of the game that saw a 33-0 comeback by Minnesota two years ago, but I think it’s more likely the Vikings win this one by 33 points this time than need such a huge comeback.

Bucs-Chiefs: The Chiefs win but don’t cover. What’s new? I think it’s more interesting if Mike Evans and Chris Godwin were healthy, but you have to basically be the Chiefs to lose your top two receivers and still figure things out to win games. But I do think Baker Mayfield has a shot to at least push the Chiefs into a higher-scoring game than they’re used with 28 straight games finishing under 51.5 points, and they haven’t scored more than 28 points in KC (Arrowhead) since Week 7 last year.

NFL 2024 Week 7 Predictions: Strongest Schedule Edition

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

I wouldn’t even say it was by accident, but the NFL has loaded up the best schedule of the 2024 season (so far) with the Week 7 slate. Texans-Packers, Lions-Vikings, Chiefs-49ers, and Ravens-Bucs are all great games, and even Sunday night’s Jets-Steelers game has drama with the debuts of Davante Adams and Russell Wilson on their new teams.

It’s definitely one of those pivotal weeks in the Super Bowl chase as the 49ers need to get a win for their mental health against the Chiefs just to show they can beat that team, their personal road block to multiple championships. We also get to see just how real the Vikings and Sam Darnold are in this NFC North race against the Lions, and I think Texans-Packers is a great non-conference matchup between two teams I was very high on in the offseason.

Favorites were dominant last week with a 12-2 record SU. I’d keep that in mind when it comes to picking this week’s winners, especially in those big games were the road teams are slight underdogs and home-field isn’t what it used to be in this league.

This Week’s Articles

NFL Week 7 Predictions

I confused Sean Payton for still coaching the Saints, but Denver was in fact my pick on Thursday night, a terrible game to watch. I’m not getting up early for Pats-Jags either. But the good stuff should start at 1 PM.

Pats-Jags: Jacksonville has to win or they’re going to fire Doug Pederson, right? But Drake Maye showed some positives against the Texans last week, so I’m going to hedge and still take the Pats to cover in a closer game than both teams played last week.

Titans-Bills: It looks like Mason Rudolph is starting for Will Levis, but he returns to Buffalo where he lost a playoff game 31-17 with Pittsburgh last year. The Bills haven’t blown anyone out in weeks so they feel due for a big, easy win at home here. The Titans just can’t score enough.

Texans-Packers: I said my 2024 predictions would be horrible if these teams bombed, but they’re 4-2 and 5-1 right now. I’m siding with the Texans here, because I think the Packers have been feasting on turnovers, C.J. Stroud usually protects the ball, and the running game has looked very good with Joe Mixon in the game this year. I also trust Stroud more than Love in crunch time, so I think the Texans can win this one by a late score. Should be good.

Dolphins-Colts: I changed my gut pick here to Miami, a team that tends to win when I expect them to lose. But it’s mostly just that I don’t trust Anthony Richardson, especially without Jonathan Taylor in the backfield. Give me a Colts win if Joe Flacco was the QB, but that’s not the case (unless AR gets hurt again).

Seahawks-Falcons: Could be a good one, but I’m going to trust Atlanta at home as I just don’t trust the Seattle defense. They played bad offenses to start the season and have suffered injuries. Too much skill for Atlanta but it is a push candidate on the spread.

Lions-Vikings: Good spot to see how the Vikings play out of the bye week and how the Lions handle losing Aidan Hutchinson. But my belief is the Lions are going to be the best prepared team to face the Vikings after seeing them twice late in the 2023 season and winning both games. I think they get some turnovers from Sam Darnold, I think Jared Goff does enough against that Brian Flores’ defense, and the Lions keep rolling with a win.

Bengals-Browns: Nick Chubb is back and Kevin Stefanski owns the Bengals in his career. The only problem here is Deshaun Watson is the worst QB in the NFL still starting games. However, I’m going to hedge on the history here and at least give the Browns a chance to cover 5.5 at home. We know the Bengals are a lousy big favorite.

Eagles-Giants: I want to trust Saquon Barkley to have a big Revenge Game in a win. I feel better about it after he was shut down last week. Why? Week-to-week league. What was down last week goes up the next week. Plus I just don’t trust Daniel Jones to beat this team, something I don’t believe he’s done since 2021 when Jalen Hurts had maybe the worst game of his career in a 13-7 final.

Raiders-Rams: Isn’t Stafford contractually obligated to be in a close game every Sunday afternoon? I like the Rams to win, but I’m not trusting them with a 7-point spread.

Panthers-Commanders: Again, it’s time for big favorites to start regressing to the mean and crushing teams. The Commanders have some blowout wins and I just don’t think Panthers will keep up with that offense. Could be a 30-20 game.

Chiefs-49ers: Does the 11-game winning streak continue? We know the Chiefs are usually great after a bye, but the 49ers played last Thursday so it’s not as big of an advantage. Then again, they’ve had byes before two Super Bowls and the Chiefs always find a way to win against Shanahan in the Mahomes era. I could see the Chiefs slipping up here with JuJu popping up with a hamstring issue late in the week. But I also think Purdy holding the ball longer and getting less YAC this season could play into Spags’ hands with blitzes. Should be a good one I’m going to try to watch most of live. I’ll cautiously pick the Chiefs, because you know better than to doubt Mahomes as a road underdog.

Jets-Steelers: I’ll be picking the Jets regardless of which QB the Steelers start. I think Russ is the right call, but all week I’ve pegged this as a game where the Jets will score like 24-27 points and the Steelers will lose, causing people to blame the QB change while ignoring that Justin Fields is 0-22 when the team allows more than 20 points in his career. But I think Rodgers will be comfortable against this predictable defense barring a Watt monster game, and I expect Davante Adams to have an impact immediately. No game-losing INT to Mike Williams this week. Jets finally end the losing streak in what should be a close game.

Ravens-Bucs: Great potential here but I’m not liking the Mike Evans injury news. Sounds like he’ll play though. Ravens are just a tough matchup but at least they faced each other in 2022, so that’s somewhat recent. I’m trusting Lamar to improve to 23-1 against the NFC.

Chargers-Cardinals: No Chargers game has reached 40 total points this year, so the Harbaugh impact has been crazy in multiple ways. The Cardinals are a great 1Q offense before disappearing the rest of the game. Not expecting a ton from this one but I’ll cautiously back the Chargers for another win.

NFL 2024 Week 4 Predictions: Everybody’s Hurt Edition

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

I highly doubt this is the first time I’ve used that title. But it’s another one of those weeks where it just seems like too many good players are injured and either won’t play or won’t be anywhere near 100%, which makes it harder to do predictions.

This Week’s Articles

NFL 2024 Week 4 Predictions

Those damn Cowboys couldn’t cover the 5.5-point spread in New York. Brandon Aubrey looks like the next great kicker, but his first miss from 50-plus was costly. Oh well.

I think it’d be so funny to see Andy Dalton drop the Bengals to 0-4, but I’m not trusting it that much with their WR injuries. I’m also starting to think a Zack Moss TD is my favorite play in that game. Didn’t Joe Mixon score like 5 touchdowns in 2022 against this team?

I like the Jets to win big over the Broncos. Run it up, Nathaniel Hackett. They beat the Broncos by 10 in Denver last year with Zach Wilson. Should be able to cover 7.5 at home with Aaron Rodgers.

A lot of injuries for the Saints but it sounds like Alvin Kamara and Chris Olave could both play? I’m cautiously picking the Saints. Maybe they finally end that 4th-quarter comeback drought in this one.

Trusting my preseason hype teams, Packers and Texans, to cover at home in division games. Let’s hope Jordan Love is looking like the late 2023 version Love.

Feels like a trap game for the Steelers, who lost 30-13 in Indy last year. Yeah, Anthony Richardson is messy, but his OL is great and that should at least make this a tougher game for T.J. Watt to dominate. Let’s not forget Justin Fields is 0-21 when his team allows more than 20 points. The Colts may not get there, but I expect the Steelers to allow more points this week.

Still going to trust Matthew Stafford in Chicago after last week’s effort to upset the 49ers. Just don’t trust the Chicago offense.

Sounds like the Eagles won’t have A.J. Brown or DeVonta Smith. Tampa has more weapons for sure in this matchup, and I think they bounce back after ugly loss last week to Denver. Shouldn’t be as decisive as the wild card game, but a Tampa win.

Don’t believe in the Patriots at all this year. Calmly taking the 49ers to cover the first double-digit spread of the season after last week’s choke. Sounds like reinforcements are coming back this week on offense.

The Kliff Kingsbury revenge game is something I plan on doing a lot of SGPs for tomorrow. Kliff Kingsbury Revenge Game in Arizona. Jayden Daniels has led 14 straight scoring drives. Maybe a parlay again with him scoring 2 TDs and 2 for Marvin Harrison Jr.? Maybe split it with a TD for Jayden and one for Brian Robinson (or James Conner). I have high hopes for this game. Hope it doesn’t end 16-13.

The Chargers might be getting a gimpy Justin Herbert without his tackles and Derwin James. The Chiefs are favored by 7. That means a Harrison Butker GW FG. Possibly in OT too. But seriously, I had the Chargers winning this game in my preseason picks and I think that would be a good pick this week if not for these injuries. They should have sat Herbert last week.

Hate to see Cleveland win these days, but without Maxx Crosby and Davante Adams, I’m going to give the edge to the Browns. But keep in mind that Cleveland defense hasn’t travelled well. Could be some Minshew magic at work here.

Find the preview link above for Bills-Ravens from me. I’m going with Buffalo as I think they have a good read on what Lamar Jackson does, and Josh Allen is in a zone right now. The Baltimore defense is struggling, and I like the Bills to take this one.

Maybe Miami is the only team Will Levis looks clutch against. Going with Tyler Huntley should help the Miami offense, but I think the Titans pull one out for their first win.

Seattle has won the last two years in Detroit in epic shootouts. I think this one is lower scoring but Mike Macdonald’s defense is still the story as they get to Jared Goff and Geno Smith outplays him for a tight win. Could be a good one.

NFL 2024 Week 3 Predictions: “Ravens Can’t Go 0-3, Can They?” Edition

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

I’m still up at 6 AM since I did my WNBA 2024 Playoff Preview, something I’d never imagined I would be doing, but here we are. It’s crazy to think they’re going to start the playoffs on an NFL Sunday, one that could be very good too.

I always enjoy Week 3 as some teams have given us wildly different data points in the first two games, and we have to figure out which one to believe in more. But the game I’m really interested in is Cowboys vs. Ravens as both teams could really use it after last week, but the Ravens need it even more to avoid starting 0-3.

Since 2002, 103 teams have started 0-3 and only the 2018 Texans (11-5) won more than 9 games and made the playoffs. One out of 103. That’s also 0-for-16 since the playoff expansion in 2020 and 0-for-10 since the 17th game was added in 2021. The Ravens better show up for that one after coming up short these first two weeks.

But can you trust anything this season with the way big-name injuries are already piling up? Quarterback injuries have me so confused on who to pick in GB-TEN and LAC-PIT this weekend. But the number of top receiving targets who have already been injured this season is crazy and not helping the offensive drought.

But hey, at least a 6-point favorite covered for the first time all season on Thursday night.

This Week’s Articles:

NFL 2024 Week 3 Predictions

The Jets looked very good on Thursday night. Before that game, favorites of 5.5+ points were 0-7-2 ATS this year. Let’s see if the big favorites can dominate this weekend.

Last week, I hedged on 6 games where I picked a different spread winner from the moneyline winner. That paid off as I was 6-0 ATS on those games. Not repeating that with this slate as I only did it twice, and that’s only because of an injury in one game.

I’m counting on the Browns to shit all over Daniel Jones. The Browns don’t have a takeaway yet this season, so let’s get some regression there.

I’m trusting Anthony Richardson to finally win a game he plays the majority of snaps in for the Colts. He’s 0-4 so far, but I’m banking on the Chicago offensive line being unable to give them a good running game against that poor run defense of the Colts.

Line keeps creeping to Minnesota, but I don’t care. Still trusting my Texans and Stroud this week.

Love the Saints to keep scoring a lot and I don’t think the Eagles keep up without A.J. Brown.

I really hope Justin Herbert can play in Pittsburgh, because I want to see what happens when a quarterback who can score points and actually put heat on Justin Fields to do anything in the fourth quarter. He’s had it easy these two games. But with Herbert on a high-ankle sprain, the Steelers might get a big break if he can’t move well. But Joe Alt is going to have his hands full with T.J. Watt. I’ll be watching this one closely.

Expecting Tampa Bay to make things miserable for Bo Nix again.

GB-TEN is the other annoying QB injury game this week. Is Jordan Love playing or not? I’m not exactly feeling a Malik Willis Revenge Game, but the Packers have been forcing turnovers, and Will Levis seems willing to try new creative ways to cough them up. I cautiously take the Packers here.

Going upset with Carolina, though really I think Andy Dalton’s passing overs and the game going over 40 (both teams score 20+) are the best bets there. Might be an actual passing fest between Dalton and Minshew as neither team can run. But look for Dalton to immediately improve the passing game after Bryce Young was benched. Not entirely sure why I’m taking them to win too but I do like +6.5 for the spread.

I don’t believe in Skylar Thompson, so it’s a chance for Mike Macdonald’s defense to eat up at home. Seahawks by 5+ I hope.

Not liking what I’m seeing out of Detroit so far, and that Arizona offense is fun as hell. Upset pick there but it should be a good game. Tight one in the 4Q. Possibly OT.

It’s not like we haven’t seen quarterbacks go into Dallas and light them up. This is on Lamar Jackson to play well. The season is almost teetering early here at 0-2. Something still feels off with the Dallas offense as they lost Tony Pollard and TE Jake Ferguson was injured in Week 1. Not much that’s reliable outside of CeeDee Lamb.

Is anyone not hurt in 49ers-Rams? Meh, Rams already look cooked with these injuries. Just give me the 49ers.

Preview link above for Chiefs-Falcons. Can be a good one. I think Mahomes throws a lot more this week without Pacheco.

Don’t like the way the Jaguars are playing this year. Bills seem to be pretty strong and can win in a variety of ways right now. More interested in the later game.

Did a preview on that one too in Cincy. I think a healthy Tee Higgins and Ja’Marr Chase should lead to Burrow’s best game this year against a terrible defense. But I’m still trusting the Commanders to cover that big of a spread. Shrink the game with long drives again. Avoid those pesky turnovers the Bengals are usually good at getting.

NFL 2024 Week 1 Predictions: Home Favorites Edition

~ Scott ~ 1 Comment

It’s always one of the longest weeks of my year to get ready for Week 1 of a new NFL season. I thought I put together some well-reasoned 2024 season predictions with the Green Bay Packers becoming the latest NFC flash in the pan to reach the big game.

After one game last night in Brazil, I fear my vision might be cooked. Nothing’s getting me out of bed Saturday until I can get at least 6 hours of sleep after this long week, but I hate the thought of waking up to see “Jordan Love out for season”. He was injured (ankle or worse) in the final seconds of a 34-29 loss that didn’t make the Packers look ready for the next level.

It didn’t make the Eagles, my NFC East pick, look like much either. But I like to think the poor field conditions caused a lot of the bad plays by both teams. But even before he was injured, Love looked erratic and inaccurate like he did early in 2023. Hurts made some really boneheaded plays all night, and even the Tush Push failed multiple times as he struggled with his new center. I guess Jason Kelce was pretty damn important.

But again, you like to think both teams can move on and will play on better fields going forward. Just a sloppy Week 1 game on a soccer field in South America. But in Green Bay’s case, we don’t know if they have to move on with signing Ryan Tannehill or something like that, because they sure as shit aren’t going anywhere with Malik Willis starting games. I just hope it’s a high-ankle sprain and Love can be back in a couple of weeks.

Guess I’ll just have to wake up and face the dread of what the news will be there. Is this what happens when I finally pick the Packers for the first time in 14 years to win the Super Bowl? Yikes.

This Week’s Articles

NFL Week 1 Predictions

I’ve been doing this so many years that I should have been adding the year in the title as to not create so many dupes with the URL. Whoops. But here’s where I’m at for Week 1.

Remember, Week 1 is not the time to go crazy. So much uncertainty and new things to learn.

One thing I love this year is the overs, and they’re already 2-0. We’ve had unders being profitable 3 years in a row, and I think we see more scoring this year. It’ll help if teams are just going to do touchbacks on the dynamic kickoff and give up the 30-yard line to start most drives.

But what stood out to me with this schedule in Week 1 is that 14 of the 16 games have a home favorite. Granted, Packers-Eagles was played on a (shitty) neutral field, but the only road favorites are the Texans and Vikings, and I like the Giants to upset the Vikings since I’m not sure when else they’ll be able to win this year.

But this is a ton of home favorites in Week 1. The 2021 season only had 9 home favorites and they were 2-7 ATS. I wanted to pick more underdogs ATS, but here’s why I struggled to do so:

Justin Fields might start for the Steelers since Russell Wilson’s calf is acting up, and you know I think the worst of Fields. The Steelers may still lose by 3 points and cover, but I’m not trusting them this week in Atlanta to score enough.

I think Miami plays its best under Mike McDaniel in September, and they have better weapons than the Jaguars and I just expect them to cover 3.5.

I wanted to go Patriots +7.5 since I think Jacoby Brissett could surprise people with competitiveness, the Bengals are a bit overrated as usual, and they have injuries at WR. However, I also have my narrative that the Patriots are going to be terrible under Jerod Mayo this year, so even if the Bengals stumble to a 24-16 win, that’s good enough to cover.

Carolina is another team I’d like to pull the trigger on at +3.5 in New Orleans, but I need to see it first from Bryce Young and Dave Canales.

I absolutely can see the Cardinals upsetting Buffalo (-6.5) with the takes going wild about trading Diggs, letting the Chiefs get Worthy, leaving Josh Allen without weapons, etc. I can see it. But on the other hand, I see a weak Arizona roster on defense, the Bills should still play good defense, and we know Buffalo wins a lot of games in blowout fashion. So I can’t trust Arizona on the road yet.

A statement win for Jim Harbaugh with the Chargers instead of choking or barely hanging on against the Chargers is my expectation this week. Couldn’t go there even though we know the Chargers are always up for some Chargering. But hopefully that’s a new era starting.

Then I think the other rookie QBs are in tough spots on the road with Bo Nix facing a new Mike Macdonald defense and Jayden Daniels on the road against Todd Bowles. Not liking those matchups even if I don’t think either game is necessarily a blowout.

Can the Rams win in Detroit? Sure, it was 24-23 in January. But this is just my narrative that I think Detroit looks better defensively, they force Stafford into some mistakes, and they are up 5-8 late to get the cover.

Then on Monday night, who knows what to expect from Aaron Rodgers with the Jets? Try lasting a full drive for starters. But we know the 49ers have been a real nemesis in his career, especially when the 49ers are a great team, which they still should be this year. So, I just can’t trust the Jets in that one right now.

Definitely excited to see what happens this week. Not a ton of great games on Sunday, but a lot of interesting matchups to start figuring out what we’re going to see this year.

I’ll be posting a grid of picks for the last 14 games on Twitter late Saturday night.

2024 NFL Predictions

~ Scott ~ 3 Comments

Going into my 14th season of NFL coverage, I would just once like to say I predicted that year’s Super Bowl winner correctly before the season. Seven times I ended up getting a Super Bowl team right, but all seven times I managed to have the wrong game outcome.

Just my luck. I probably couldn’t predict seven coin flips in a row but I managed that.

But I’m on a three-year drought of not getting any Super Bowl teams right. Last year, I thought I had something cooking with Ravens over Cowboys as it was a year set up beautifully for Baltimore with the No. 1 seed and the best defense. Even Dak Prescott had arguably his best year and the Cowboys were blowing out scrubs left and right. The Ravens were blowing out a lot of good teams, so maybe it’d work out.

But we know what happened in January. The same thing that always seems to happen for the Cowboys (since 1996) and for the Ravens with Lamar Jackson. I won’t be revisiting that matchup anytime soon.

Is 2024 a layup with the Kansas City Chiefs going for a historic three-peat with a roster that’s quite arguably better than their last two teams? Are they just inevitable as long as their core is intact? We’ll see.

The three-peat is clearly the No. 1 story this season. But my vision for this year’s narrative has been on my mind since February. One fanbase will be happy to see I’m picking them for the first time here, but don’t get too excited when you look back at my track record of picking the ultimate winner.

Right Super Bowl team, wrong Super Bowl outcome.

My 2023 NFL predictions were the second-most accurate I’ve done since 2013. I’m proud of what I came up with for the AFC where I nailed the Ravens as a 13-4 No. 1 seed, nailed the Bills finishing No. 2 ahead of No. 3 Kansas City, and also had the No. 7 Steelers with a 10-7 record. A perfect 4-for-4 on those picks even if I had no clue Mason Rudolph would be leading the playoff charge for the Steelers at the end there.

Of course, my other picks flopped in the AFC as 2023 was just a brutal year for quarterback injuries. Trevor Lawrence got a little banged up late in the season and never won another start after that. The Jets lost Aaron Rodgers on opening night to a torn Achilles, and Joe Burrow neither started (calf) nor ended (wrist) the season healthy. That killed those picks, and I really didn’t see Houston coming so fast. Much more on them later.

My theme for 2023 was uncertainty. This year, it’s MOGA: Make Offense Great Again.

We can blame 2023 on a quarter of the league’s starting quarterbacks going down with a season-ending injury (shades of 2017). Hopefully, that means regression to the mean in 2024, and we see fewer serious injuries. We already lost rookie J.J. McCarthy in the preseason and are stuck with Sam Darnold in Minnesota, but they never really factored into the big picture of 2024 anyway.

But for as much as people try to pretend the NFL has turned into the (classic) Pac-12 with offense, that’s simply not the case. Ever since the 2020 COVID year with the empty stadiums led to record-setting offensive numbers, we continue to see a decline.

In fact, points and yards have decreased 3 years in a row in the NFL, which has only happened one other time since the 1970 merger. Since 2022, teams are scoring just under 22.0 points per game, which hasn’t happened in consecutive years since 2006-07.

If you bet the under in every NFL game, you would have been profitable (better than 52.38%) in each of the last three seasons. So, let’s look for more points this year, more touchdowns, and more comebacks.

After a historic 2022 season for comeback wins, things regressed to the rates we’ve seen in recent seasons. But we still went from 85 comebacks in the fourth quarter to 68 last year. More games were early runaways as 73.7% of the teams who led after the first quarter in 2023 won the game, up from about 60% in previous seasons.

Besides regression and better quarterback health, what else could facilitate more scoring? Let’s see what this new dynamic kickoff does. I was skeptical of it from the preseason, but when I crunched the numbers, 26.0 yards per kick return would be the highest season in NFL history. Touchbacks in the end zone can still happen, but the ball will go to the 30 instead of the 25. There should also be about triple the number of returnable kicks from 2023’s touchback fest.

Add that together and you get better starting field position for the league, which should improve scoring. May not help with the yardage numbers, but we’ll see what happens.

More offense, fewer blowouts. That’s what I’m looking for this year. I also am taking a bold approach in counting on two teams with quarterbacks who have only been a starter for one season to move into the elite class this year. If they got an early start on their success last year, I’m just trying to get there early in 2024 for what could be the start of something great.

But it’s definitely adding more risk than usual to my picks as things could always go badly there with disappointment. If all else fails, I’ll just back the three-peat as we all wait to see if the Chiefs make history.

This summer, I only did one full preview per team at 365Scores, but that project was heavy work night after night going back to July. I only finished with the Chiefs on Tuesday, and that ended up being a 7,300-word epic. Then I also wrote out 5,000 words on my NFL betting picks for the season (award winners, playoff teams, Super Bowl teams), so I’m not exactly looking to jump into 8,000 words here for this annual blog post of my final record predictions.

But I have a standard to uphold for myself, and this is still the only place where I post my final record predictions for each team. So, let’s get into it, and again, if you want more detailed analysis and writing about these teams rather than my 25th hour thoughts below, you have to go read the linked previews at 365Scores.

Note: Some of the over/under picks in these articles were subject to change as I only made my final record predictions over the weekend after going through the schedule. My final, official picks are as presented below.

NFL 2024 Predictions

AFC WEST

1. Kansas City Chiefs (13-4)

365Scores Preview: I looked at just how historic the Super Bowl three-peat would be, the new flaws the Chiefs had to deal with in 2023 that led to their most difficult regular season yet, and the subtle changes they made to emerge on top once again in the playoffs. I also tackled the myth that they’re beating up weak competition when the reality is they’ve done the best job of limiting their rivals from having championship success. The Chiefs only have the No. 4 scoring differential since 2019, but they are 6-0 in the playoffs against the teams (49ers, Ravens, Bills) ranked ahead of them. That’s how you end up with a dynasty and keep those teams ringless.

But another thing I talked about in the preview is the chances we haven’t seen the best Kansas City teams yet around Patrick Mahomes. If you make the offense faster and more efficient than last year, and if the defense can stay in the top 8 or so, then you might be looking at the 2024 Chiefs as their best team yet.

However, it’s still a team held together by its core pieces of Mahomes, Andy Reid, Travis Kelce, Chris Jones, and Steve Spagnuolo. That core covers up a lot of the flaws, and we’ll just have to see if letting L’Jarius Sneed go at corner comes back to haunt them if they face a team with better receiving talent that has a quarterback who can duel with Mahomes.

There are a couple out there I think, and they’re not the usual suspects. It’s time for some new rivals for the Chiefs to vanquish if they want to keep the throne for another year. This is probably the only great shot Mahomes will have at a three-peat, which would give him an edge as the first to do it in the hardest era to do it. It took 19 years just for a team to repeat, the longest drought in history. A three-peat is insane in this game.

So, that way even if Mahomes never wins a certain number of rings, he’d still have the three-peat as his ace in the hole. It’s such a huge opportunity for Kansas City.

2. Los Angeles Chargers (10-7)

365Scores Preview: Of the 8 new head coach hirings this season, Jim Harbaugh to the Chargers is my top pick. He makes history with Sean Payton and Andy Reid in the AFC West this week as this becomes a division where three coaches have won over 60% of their games. That’s never happened since the merger. He doesn’t have a roster as talented as the one he took over in 2011 in San Francisco, but he knows he has the quarterback in place with Justin Herbert.

I obviously think highly of Herbert, and more people would if they ever saw him get a legitimate defense. The 2023 Chargers had 5 lost comebacks, which I believe to be a single-season record in all of NFL history. That’s five games (three with Herbert) where they trailed in the fourth quarter, took the lead, and still lost. That’s maddening and so on brand for the Chargers.

I liked the draft picks of Joe Alt and Ladd McConkey instead of taking Malik Nabers at No. 5. But it sure would have been nice to keep Keenan Allen around. Definitely some young receivers to deal with, but I think Harbaugh and Herbert are going to figure it out and they should have a winning record this year.

3. Denver Broncos (6-11)

365Scores Preview: I am excited to see how Sean Payton fares with a rookie quarterback he can mold from Day 1 in Bo Nix. Go figure, he drafted someone who set a NCAA single-season record for completion percentage at Oregon. That was Drew Brees’ money stat in the NFL, but it would be hard for Nix to ever come close to the legacy of Brees in the NFL. Still, I think there’s some potential here and at least he looked confident in the preseason and led some scoring drives.

But still a lot of roster flaws here. A 6-11 record would actually be the worst of Payton’s career as he’s never done worse than 7-9 before. But I had to find wins for other teams and Denver just didn’t stand out enough on defense to give them the benefit of the doubt. The preview goes into how the 2023 Broncos had three different identities in one season.

We’ll see what Payton can cook up with Nix in a fresh direction after they swallowed $85 million in dead cap money to get rid of Russell Wilson. I still can’t believe how poorly that went these last two years.

4. Las Vegas Raiders (4-13)

365Scores Preview: I spent much of this preview questioning the hiring of Antonio Pierce, who was never a defensive coordinator in the NFL, lost a 3-0 home game indoors to the Vikings, relied on two defensive touchdowns in 7 seconds to upset the Chiefs in a game where they couldn’t complete a pass after the opening quarter, and then the Broncos gave up in Week 18 when they beat him. The 63-21 win over the Chargers was the team giving up on Brandon Staley after Justin Herbert and Keenan Allen were lost for the season.

I just don’t see it with Pierce, and it’s even worse when you saddle him with the least impressive quarterback situation in the NFL in 2024. Gardner Minshew and Aidan O’Connell? What’s the plan there? Getting Deion Sanders’ son in 2025?

I hope Brock Bowers is legit at tight end, because elite tight ends are fun to watch. Don’t expect to see much this year though given the quarterback situation and Pierce’s likely one-sided coaching that will cater to the defense.

Yeah, they’ll probably win a few more games than this, but I’ll be damned if I could find them on the schedule. I already have them getting wins over the Rams and Jaguars.

NFC WEST

1. San Francisco 49ers (12-5)

365Scores Preview: What more can you even say at this point? They should have gone last in overtime on offense. Guess they’ll know better next time, but this team has to be close to running out of chances after not turning four recent NFC Championship Game appearances into a ring. They might get passed over by Green Bay this year in the NFC if they’re not careful. At least Brock Purdy showed his rookie season wasn’t a fluke. He didn’t lose that Super Bowl for them either. He just didn’t win it.

The division and their talent should keep them near the top again. But it’s getting a little stale and tiring with this team. Glad they finally ended the Brandon Aiyuk saga, the most annoying story of the offseason. Should have just paid him months ago. He’s their best weapon for the long term.

2. Los Angeles Rams (9-8)

365Scores Preview: I definitely missed on this team last year, but that’s because I had no expectations for Puka Nacua looking more like Cooper Kupp than Kupp did. Incredible rookie season for a fifth-round pick. I’d sneakily pick him for OPOY if I knew I could trust him to stay healthy and that Stafford wouldn’t still rely on Kupp so much.

But you lose Aaron Donald and that’s tough to replace. They also beat up on some not-so-great teams down the stretch last year after a poor start despite Puka’s hot start. I’m still not fully sold on this team and could see them finish 9-8 and have to see if the tie-breakers work in their favor or not. Remember, that 10th win last year was against San Francisco’s backups in a battle of backups where Carson Wentz of all people led a comeback win.

3. Seattle Seahawks (8-9)

365Scores Preview: A little dark horse team if rookie coach Mike Macdonald can get the defense up to par right away. But I think that’ll take at least a second season. Still, a better defense is exactly what Geno Smith and a talented offense needed the last two years to do better than 9-8 records that don’t always qualify for a playoff spot.

I’m not picking them to get it done, but I can at least understand what they’re cooking in Seattle if they do pull off a playoff year.

4. Arizona Cardinals (6-11)

365Scores Preview: I’m all for staying put at No. 4 and drafting Marvin Harrison Jr. I’m also down with the Cardinals winning a few more games than last year with what will hopefully be a full season from Kyler Murray, but the lack of defensive stars still bothers me here. In going through the schedule, the Cardinals became an easy choice for a loss when I felt they had to play a team with a better quarterback as I just didn’t trust that defense to win a shootout with Murray.

But I’m not against Jonathan Gannon yet or anything. Just don’t think the defensive rebuild is going that great.

AFC EAST

1. Buffalo Bills (11-6)

365Scores Preview: This could be one of the best division races we’ve ever seen as it’s legitimately between three teams. Everyone but New England, which is music to my ears.

In the end, I still put the Bills on top as I just trust Josh Allen more than I do a 41-year-old Aaron Rodgers coming off a torn Achilles, an of course over Tua Tagovailoa. The Bills likely moved on from Stefon Diggs at the right time. But the receivers are young and raw, and I think you’re going to see the Bills struggle in some of those bigger showdowns with the Ravens, Chiefs, Texans, and more this year.

But I still think they are balanced enough and know how to win and won’t get swept by the Jets. They’re still capable of sweeping Miami too.

2. New York Jets (11-6)

365Scores Preview: Yeah, “This should be fun” he said last year. Aaron Rodgers lasted 4 snaps and we were treated to a ton of island games with Zach Wilson and Tim Boyle at quarterback. Real fun.

But I recycled a lot of the 2023 preview for 2024 since it feels like the same situation and questions, just a year older and more concerned about Rodgers’ health. We haven’t seen him play at a high level since 2021.

Yet, I find myself going with the optimistic approach that Rodgers will be good and the defense will still be great. They also upgraded the offensive line and should run the ball better. That combo sounds like enough to win 11 games against a schedule that is more balanced and forgiving than last year.

But the Jets are definitely one of the biggest wild cards in 2024 as you can see anything from 12-loss disaster to a No. 1 seed. Shit, maybe we’ll even see a Mahomes vs. Rodgers playoff game. About damn time.

3. Miami Dolphins (9-8)

365Scores Preview: My paper tiger team. Sure, they might have the fastest offense in history, but where does it go when they go on the road and play a good team? That’s 10 straight losses for Mike McDaniel on the road against a playoff team.

The Dolphins swept the Jets last year. With Rodgers back, I have that turning around, which is a big reason why I only have the Dolphins at 9-8. Is that enough for the wild card? We’ll see below.

4. New England Patriots (3-14)

365Scores Preview: I’ll be shocked if they’re not starting Drake Maye by Week 5. Jerod Mayo is in over his head, and yes, Bill Belichick the GM has a lot to do with the poor state of this team right now.

I have 3-14 as the worst record this year too, by the way. Should be fun to hear what Belichick has to say as a media member when this team comes up. Hard to be too critical, Bill. You left these cupboards bare.

NFC EAST

1. Philadelphia Eagles (11-6)

365Scores Preview: It’s one of my favorite stats that the NFC East has not had a repeat winner since the 2001-04 Eagles. Meanwhile, every other division has had at least two repeat winners in that time. I go through it in here why this has happened to the East, and it’s usually because of the shared quarterback talent in the division (no alpha for a long time), and injuries to those quarterbacks.

But you can also argue the 2023 Eagles had the greatest collapse in NFL history after a 10-1 start. No division title and no playoff win after a 10-1 start. But I go into why that was always fishy, why I was right to compare them to the 2022 Vikings when they were 10-1, and why I still think the streak continues as they steal the division back from Dallas this year with better coordinators.

The key is the home game late in the year against Dallas. These teams have been splitting home games with each other, and the Eagles get the big one late.

Also, I am curious to see that Tush Push without Jason Kelce at center, but something tells me it will still work well.

2. Dallas Cowboys (10-7)

365Scores Preview: The Cowboys more or less did what you expected them to do last year. Smashed the bad teams, split with the Eagles at home, and got smashed by teams like the 49ers and Bills. Lost a close one on the road to their paper tiger doppelganger from the AFC in Miami.

But everything was going fine until the playoffs when they fell behind 27-0 in the blink of an eye against Green Bay. That one floored me, and it’s a bad sign for this team that they’ve turned three straight 12-win seasons into a playoff win over a lousy Tampa Bay team in 2022 and that’s it.

So, I am soured on Dallas, but the preview has some interesting facts about why 2024 might be the last chance for Dak Prescott if he’s ever going to win a Super Bowl for Dallas. Either he or the coach should probably go if they fail this year.

3. Washington Commanders (4-13)

365Scores Preview: This would probably be more shocking than the RGIII year in 2012 if this team was good. But I just don’t see it this year with Dan Quinn and Kliff Kingsbury as the retread coaches getting another shot. Jayden Daniels had incredible numbers in 2023, but not so much in his first four college seasons. He’ll also have to prove he can stay healthy after taking some comically bad hits in college.

4. New York Giants (3-14)

365Scores Preview: What is the most shocking outcome possible for the 2024 NFL season? I might have to go with a legitimate breakout season from Daniel Jones. It’s Year 6 and I’m out. He had one of the worst Year 5 seasons ever in 2023, and he’s a quarterback coming off a torn ACL where his mobility is his best feature. It’s not a good fit, it’s not going to get fixed with Brian Daboll, and they should just admit a mistake (like Russ in Denver) and cut bait after this year.

Good draft pick of Nabers though. The next quarterback should love him.

AFC SOUTH

1. Houston Texans (13-4)

365Scores Preview: Yeah, I went big at 13-4. I think the Texans have the right stuff this year and their preview was one I was very much looking forward to writing. C.J. Stroud is my MVP pick as I loved his ability to lead the league in INT% and passing yards per game (first time that’s happened since 1970 John Brodie) as a rookie. Now you give him Stefon Diggs and possibly the best group of weapons in the league if Tank Dell stays healthy and takes a second-year leap. Stroud could spread the ball around and lead a No. 1 offense here if everything goes well.

But I also loved the move of Danielle Hunter for the pass rush. Don’t just settle with Will Anderson Jr. doing well as a rookie. He’ll get better too, giving them bookends to rush the passer with.

As I detailed in the preview, so many NFL teams that go to Super Bowls do it early in their runs. It only took two seasons for Don Shula and Dan Marino, Bill Cowher and Ben Roethlisberger, Pete Carroll and Russell Wilson, and Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes.

Stroud had one of the best rookie seasons ever. I think he has one of the best sophomore seasons ever, and he can wrap up MVP and possibly a No. 1 seed in December in those island games against the Chiefs and Ravens, the most important part of the NFL schedule this year with those teams playing 3 games in 10 days.

But just read the linked preview to fully understand why I’m high on Houston in 2024. They were only scratching the surface in 2023.

2. Jacksonville Jaguars (9-8)

365Scores Preview: I struggle with this team since I think they rode improbable comebacks and the Titans’ collapse to a division title in 2022. Then last year, they were 9-8 again and probably a better team had Trevor Lawrence not gotten injured against the Bengals. But I’m not a big Lawrence fan, and this preview goes into some interesting numbers that show how absurdly important completion percentage has been to him, and why throwing short might be the key to his success. It could also explain why Calvin Ridley just wasn’t his guy but he loves Christian Kirk and Evan Engram. That also could contradict giving him Gabe Davis and the rookie from LSU.

In the end, I landed on 9-8 again as I clearly have bigger plans for Houston in this division. But I do acknowledge the AFC South is a division where anyone could win this year. Nothing would surprise me on that front.

3. Indianapolis Colts (8-9)

365Scores Preview: Speaking of why anyone could win the AFC South, imagine if the Colts go from 9-8 and a red zone touchdown shy of the division title to hopefully getting a full, healthy season from Anthony Richardson and Jonathan Taylor. They also drafted possibly the best edge rusher in the draft and a favorite for DROY (Laiatu Latu).

However, I’m not sold that Richardson can stay healthy as he was knocked out of three games with injuries on runs last year, and he’s going to probably run 100+ times this season if he can. At least they have Joe Flacco as the backup. But I also think Richardson is going to be an inconsistent player with a great highlight reel who misses some easy plays.

It should be a grind for the Colts, who haven’t won the division since 2014.

4. Tennessee Titans (7-10)

365Scores Preview: I like the table in this preview that looks at what happens when you get a second-year quarterback (Will Levis) and pair him with a rookie coach (Brian Callahan). Some good turnaround stories have happened this way, especially if the quarterback needs a boost after a struggle last year. The Titans fit that mold, and they really upgraded the offense around Levis. Not saying I love the additions of Tony Pollard and Calvin Ridley, but it’s more than just an aging DeAndre Hopkins and Derrick Henry like they had last year. They also got Tyler Boyd, so you’re talking about one of the better WR trios in the league, a key component for a Callahan offense coming from Cincy.

But I’m also curious to see if Levis dramatically brings down his ADOT, which led the league last year while Callahan’s quarterbacks had the two lowest figures for the Bengals. Not going crazy to pick a worst-to-first team here, but it’s one of the few chances of that happening this year if Levis were to have that 2017 Jared Goff type of Year 2 leap.

NFC SOUTH

1. Atlanta Falcons (10-7)

365Scores Preview: I hated the Michael Penix Jr. draft pick and still don’t understand it when you’re paying Kirk Cousins this much money in a winnable division. They should have gave him Rome Odunze, a new left tackle for the long term, or Dallas Turner/Latu instead. Having said that, I think the Falcons have a great schedule with an easy finish that will allow them to clinch the division title after a slow start to the year with Cousins coming off a torn Achilles.

Expecting big things from Bijan Robinson in this offense since I’m still not sold that much on Kyle Pitts or the receivers after Drake London. I also think hiring Raheem Morris over Bill Belichick was a mistake, but we’ll see what he does given another chance.

2. New Orleans Saints (9-8)

365Scores Preview: I spent this preview thinking we are overlooking the Saints, who became an afterthought after missing the playoffs last year despite giving Derek Carr the best defense of his career and the easy schedule living up to the hype. But the Saints finished strong in a way that usually bodes well for playoff success the next season. They’re basically the same team as last year, but a year older, and inching further to real cap hell.

But that still might be good enough for 9-8 again, and hopefully this time that’s enough for the playoffs. As I mentioned in the preview, it was really a blown 17-0 lead and missed clutch field goal in Week 3 in Green Bay that ruined the team’s season. Otherwise, we would be viewing the Packers and Saints very differently going into this year.

Also, the Saints were the only team in the NFL to not have a 4th-quarter comeback win in 2023 (playoffs included). Remember when that was Carr’s specialty? Let’s see some positive regression in that department this year to get to 9-8 again. More close wins should make up for any shortcomings they have as an aging roster.

3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-10)

365Scores Preview: Remember when the Buccaneers won the Super Bowl and basically brought the whole team back? That almost worked out for them in 2021. But I think doing it again in 2024 is a mistake when that roster has declined to the point where barely getting to 9-8 is all they can do to win the division title, and the division should be stronger this year.

Even if they get to 8-9 or 9-8 again, I think Tampa’s reign at the top of the NFC South ends this year.

4. Carolina Panthers (6-11)

365Scores Preview: This is the Tennessee team in the NFC this year. A second-year quarterback (Bryce Young) who really struggled with a rookie coach (Dave Canales) and better weapons beyond just Adam Thielen. Yet, while I loved the over 5.5 wins for Carolina, I initially gave them 5-12 as their final record. It was the last change I made to the picks to get them to 6-11.

I want to believe in the turnaround and that Young will be okay, but I need to see more first.

AFC NORTH

1. Baltimore Ravens (12-5)

365Scores Preview: Just once it’d be sweet to see a full, healthy season from both Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow so we can put this nonsense to rest. I’ve said the Bengals won the division in 2021 and 2022 because Jackson was injured in both Decembers and never played again those years. At the time of his injury, the Ravens were in first place both years. That’s just a fact.

That’s also my motivation for why I picked the Ravens to be a 13-4 No. 1 seed last year, which is exactly what they did. Now for this year, I’m not as optimistic about them going to the Super Bowl, but I can at least understand why it’d happen if it does. I think Derrick Henry is a perfect fit for what they do, but I’m very skeptical you can ride a back who will be 31 in January to a Super Bowl in this era. He’s also led the league in carries in 4-of-5 seasons, so the injury risk is higher.

Having said that, I think the Ravens, Chiefs, Texans, and Packers are the four most important previews I wrote this year. Definitely read this one if you want to see why the Ravens have struggled in the playoffs with Lamar. They try to be something they’re not in the playoffs. They can’t fall into that trap again if they’re ever going to get to a Super Bowl with Jackson and Harbaugh.

2. Cincinnati Bengals (11-6)

365Scores Preview: I had the Bengals at 11-6 last year and of course they started poorly and were never a real threat in the AFC. Joe Burrow needs to prove he can stay healthy, and he needs to increase his level of play. Show me more clutch moments in those tight games. Show me fewer sacks. He also has to get it done without Joe Mixon and Tyler Boyd, though I agree it was time to cut bait with both. We’ll see how the in-house promotion goes with offensive coordinator, but I always say good quarterbacks get their OCs hired, bad quarterbacks get their coaches fired. Most do just fine with a coordinator change.

Still have one of the best wide receiver duos in the game as I expect Ja’Marr Chase will get a payday soon. But I am hesitantly picking 11 wins for a team that was 9-8 last year and was swept by Pittsburgh as that defense was kryptonite for Jake Browning, who led the league in completion percentage in Burrow’s absence.

But the return of Burrow and reversing that Pittsburgh sweep could essentially be the difference in these teams’ records this year.

3. Pittsburgh Steelers (8-9)

365Scores Preview: I knew all offseason I’d likely have the Steelers straddling the line between 8-9 and 9-8 with history on the line as they try to tie the record with 21 non-losing seasons. But when it came time to go through the schedule, I have the Chiefs in Week 17 putting the nail in the coffin for the streak as they hand the Steelers their 9th loss, guaranteeing a losing record.

In the end, I just can’t buy the Diontae Johnson trade being a good idea, I don’t care for the hiring of Arthur Smith, and Russell Wilson just might be washed. He could end up getting benched in October a la Donovan McNabb as the Steelers see what they have with Justin Fields instead.

But I know Fields is in the running for the worst clutch quarterback of the 21st century, so those close wins the Steelers rely on to keep their streak going? Kiss them goodbye. At least Wilson can deliver some of those and keep the .500 record in striking distance.

But it’s just too hard to think this team rises above mediocrity this year. At the very least, we won’t be fooled again by the preseason like last year. The Steelers’ starting offense looked awful in August this time. Something tells me they aren’t holding back. Expect a ton of sacks no matter which quarterback plays.

4. Cleveland Browns (7-10)

365Scores Preview: I’ve said Deshaun Watson is the worst trade in NFL history, but he still has a chance to refute that. However, I’m not convinced he will with a team that lost some linemen, a good OL coach, and Nick Chubb is still on PUP. It didn’t take Baker Mayfield, Jacoby Brissett, or Joe Flacco this long to figure out Kevin Stefanski’s offense. What’s the holdup with Watson? I think he’s just washed, and I think his teammates are losing confidence in him.

There’s enough talent here to still flirt with the wild card, but I don’t think the Browns are anywhere near as successful as last season.

NFC NORTH

1. Green Bay Packers (13-4)

365Scores Preview: The youngest team to make the playoffs since 1977 will build on their hot finish and look like a top-tier team in 2024. We’ve already seen Matt LaFleur become the only coach to win 13 games in three straight seasons in 2019-21. He knows what he’s doing, and Jordan Love played at an MVP level down the stretch. I’m not fading a team that already beat Detroit in Detroit, beat the Chiefs, beat the Cowboys in the playoffs, and should have won in San Francisco if not for the rare 7-point comeback in the fourth quarter by the 49ers (rare for Kyle Shanahan teams).

I expect big things from the Packers this year, so definitely check that preview out for the full reasons why.

2. Detroit Lions (10-7)

365Scores Preview: I expressed my doubt in this preview of Detroit finishing the job it started last year. I just think 2023 set up perfectly for them with home games against the Rams and Buccaneers in the playoffs, then a San Francisco team that was a little vulnerable down the stretch with Deebo’s health and the defense not looking as elite. But to blow that 17-point lead the way they did, that was brutal, and a lot of it goes on Josh Reynolds’ drops and their inability to trust their kicker to make a field goal.

Reynolds is gone, but the kicking situation is still iffy, and I don’t think they have a great WR2 ready. Not that they really need one with all the other weapons they have. But I don’t see the offense getting even better this year, and that will be up to the defense for the team to move up a tier.

However, the Packers are my pick and I think that knocks Detroit down a peg to the wild card. I’m just not ready to crown the Lions as back-to-back division champs. They need to tighten things up defensively.

3. Chicago Bears (8-9)

365Scores Preview: Did a lot of research on Chicago again this offseason, concluding that Caleb Williams is walking into the best situation ever for a No. 1 quarterback pick. That’s why he’s my favorite pick for any award as he has the best odds to win OROY, but will it lead to a winning record as the Bears are favored for at over 8.5 wins?

I couldn’t quite get there as I still see the Packers and Lions as better teams in the division. I’m also not sold on Matt Eberflus as a coach, and while the offense should be better, I don’t expect the defense to be elite.

Remember, Andrew Luck is the only No. 1 pick at quarterback to win more than 7 games his rookie year. I think Caleb will be the second, but it’s an 8-9 record. Still, I’m excited about seeing him after how good he looked in the preseason.

But we’ve been fooled before with August football. Just look at Kenny Pickett and Sam Howell in 2023. But I really do believe the Bears finally landed on their franchise quarterback, and my preview goes to great lengths to explain the few chances they’ve had to replace Sid Luckman since the 1950s.

4. Minnesota Vikings (4-13)

365Scores Preview: I was already sour on the 2024 Vikings before J.J. McCarthy required season-ending surgery after one preseason game. I am not looking forward to Sam Darnold for a year, and thankfully the early schedule is so brutal that I doubt we’ll be talking up any Minnesota fool’s gold with a 3-1 start like the Panthers experienced a few years ago with Darnold before they finished 5-11.

But sure, it should be better for Justin Jefferson’s stats this year. Just keep feeding him the ball while you’re playing from behind most of the year. But it is a good opportunity for Kevin O’Connell to flex his coaching muscles if the offense can look semi-decent with Darnold in what should be his last chance to show he can start in the NFL.

PLAYOFFS

I was happy with most of my initial run through the schedule and getting things to add up to 272 wins. But after seeing I didn’t have many new playoff teams in the AFC, I made a change to drop Miami a game and move the Chargers up. I also happened to redo some of my 2023 picks with the Jets and Bengals winning 11 games as wild card teams.

AFC

  • 1. Houston (13-4)
  • 2. Kansas City (13-4)
  • 3. Baltimore (12-5)
  • 4. Buffalo (11-6)
  • 5. NY Jets (11-6)
  • 6. Cincinnati (11-6)
  • 7. LA Chargers (10-7)

For those wondering, yes, I have Houston getting the No. 1 seed by virtue of beating the Chiefs at Arrowhead in Week 16, setting up some interesting dynamics for the playoffs.

I think this would be a fantastic bracket in January. You get a wild card round with all division rematches with Chiefs-Chargers, Ravens-Bengals, and Bills-Jets. How incredible would that be? I think that sets up a rematch of Ravens-Chiefs in the divisional round, but this time in Kansas City where the Chiefs do it again to Lamar.

While I did give the Bills the AFC East title, I’m going to pick Rodgers and his defense to win in the playoffs in the wild card round, setting up a Jets-Texans game. I have the Jets being some kryptonite to C.J. Stroud, the team he had the concussion against last year, and they use Sauce Gardner and that defense to complete a season sweep of the young Texans. Defense still wins in January. Another MVP crashes and burns.

But this sets up a Jets-Chiefs AFC Championship Game in Arrowhead. We finally get to see Rodgers vs. Mahomes, but like usual in this round, Rodgers doesn’t get it done on the road. Mahomes helps the Chiefs to a record fifth Super Bowl in the last six seasons and the three-peat is one game away.

NFC

  • 1. Green Bay (13-4)
  • 2. San Francisco (12-5)
  • 3. Philadelphia (11-6)
  • 4. Atlanta (10-7)
  • 5. Dallas (10-7)
  • 6. Detroit (10-7)
  • 7. New Orleans (9-8)

The Saints sneak in at 9-8 this year, but don’t worry, they won’t be going on an epic run to host the Super Bowl. They’re going to lose in San Francisco, which loses out on the No. 1 seed thanks to a loss in Green Bay in Week 12.

Lions-Eagles could be a fun shootout, and I think I’ll back the Eagles at home. The Cowboys actually can win a road playoff game against the Falcons. I have some faith in that one.

That means the Eagles in San Francisco (BIG DOM REVENGE GAME) and Cowboys in Green Bay. Jordan Love shows he has that Rodgers way of owning the Cowboys in the postseason again. The Eagles come up short in San Francisco, setting up a rematch from last year but this time at Green Bay. LaFleur has struggled with Shanahan’s team so much, but I think the Packers get their revenge this time and complete a sweep of the 49ers to get to a Super Bowl.

SUPER BOWL LIX

It’s a rematch of Super Bowl I, a game where the 1966 Packers beat the Chiefs and won their second championship in a row. They followed it up with a third in Super Bowl II, completing the only official three-peat in NFL playoff history. Now it’s up to the 2024 Packers to defend that and stop the Chiefs in New Orleans.

You go back to 2021, Jordan Love actually made his first NFL start against the Chiefs when Rodgers was out with COVID. It didn’t go well, but the 13-7 final is the lowest-scoring game of Mahomes’ career with the Chiefs. Then when they met last year in Green Bay, Love outplayed Mahomes and was the only quarterback to score more than 24 points against the Chiefs. We know LaFleur got a 31-24 win over Reid’s Chiefs in 2019 too in a game Mahomes missed for injury.

What if the Packers just have the right stuff for beating the Chiefs? They have several talented receivers who can step up and attack that Kansas City secondary that is now just Trent McDuffie and some guys. You don’t know where the ball is going in any given matchup, and that’s the 2001-06 Patriots-like beauty of the Green Bay offense right now. Defenses don’t know who to double and Love can just pick his spots and expect the guys to produce.

But I’m not going to spend any more time talking about such a hypothetical. Let’s see if it happens, because it certainly makes the most sense of any matchup this year to me. The champs going for a three-peat against a team that beat them last year and nearly knocked out the 49ers last year too. It’s their time to move up a class, and beating the Chiefs in such a historic game would be one hell of an achievement for these Packers.

Love accomplishes what Rodgers couldn’t two weeks ago and beats Mahomes in this one with a late field goal as the kick finally goes in this time for Green Bay. Hell, maybe Harrison Butker will get so pissed on Kamala’s Inauguration Day that he makes a disparaging rant about women that even turns the Swifties against him so bad that he ends up choking on a game-tying field goal to the loudest boos you’ve ever heard just when you thought we were going to overtime for the second year in a row in the Super Bowl.

At least I’d have my angle for why the three-peat didn’t happen, and it wouldn’t be the real GOAT’s fault.

Packers 27, Chiefs 24 (Super Bowl MVP: Jordan Love)

TL;DR Version: The Chiefs want the three-peat about as much as I want the three-peat. But I know that statistically the odds should be against it, and I just have this vision for Green Bay being the latest flash-in-the-pan NFC team. The story would be incredible of them preventing the three-peat to save the legacy of the 1965-67 team the way Don Shula’s Dolphins protected the perfect season from the 85 Bears.

If the three-peat doesn’t happen, I already know who I hope I can lay it at the feet of…

Also, my predictions might be totally fvcked if the Texans and Packers both flop this year. But at least one should deliver for me. Emphasis on should.

NFL Stat Oddity: 2023 Divisional Round

~ Scott ~ 2 Comments

Block out the first game of the weekend, and the NFL playoffs were back with points, lead changes, game-winning drives, game-ending interceptions, and questionable coaching decisions and flags from the officials. All the real drama this postseason was lacking last week.

Also, I’d love to see one of the charting sites confirm if this postseason has had more dropped interceptions than actual interceptions, because it sure feels like it has. The fact that Jordan Love and Baker Mayfield were the only quarterbacks to have a pick in their stat line this weekend is crazy, and even half of the pair they each threw was a deflection off their own receiver.

We also were reminded that kickers are people too, and like people, it sucks when they are too far right or far left. The Packers and Bills got a dose of that in their latest January exits.

But the streak of 27 quarters this postseason without a lead change ended Saturday night in San Francisco in a big way, and the games continued being competitive through Sunday too. It sets up a Championship Sunday where the No. 1 seeds (Ravens-49ers) will host the No. 3 seeds (Chiefs-Lions), and I know damn well which rematch I’d rather see in Super Bowl 58.

(Hint: It’s how this season started.)

But before we get to that, let’s go over the four games from this weekend.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Chiefs at Bills: History Did Repeat Itself (But It Was Buffalo Wide Right)

I spent the week comparing this game to the 2006 AFC Championship Game, which was played 17 years ago to the date on Sunday when the Colts came back from a 21-3 deficit to win 38-34 and slay that New England dragon in the playoffs so they could win a Super Bowl.

Well, history did repeat itself in Buffalo, but it looked more like Super Bowl 25 with the Bills playing the role of the ball-control Giants before ultimately revealing themselves to be who we thought they were: Buffalo, the wide right team. The drought continues for another year.

The Chiefs coughed up their worst Obligatory Fumble yet, and even that wasn’t enough for Buffalo to take this game. I am not going to force any more old narratives on this game and will just go over the facts of what happened. But I badly wanted to write early in the fourth quarter that the Kansas City offense was having its best game of the season, and the defense was trying to waste it with its worst.

That was definitely happening into the fourth quarter. Even though Buffalo never had a play gain more than 18 yards, the combination of effective short throws and a strong ground game (sometimes aided by Josh Allen) was producing points and draining clock at alarming rates for the Chiefs. The Bills had 24 points and were averaging 60 yards per drive on their first 5 possessions.

In the 3 divisional round games since 2020, the Bills only gave Allen a grand total of 33 carries for 107 yards in non-quarterback rushing support. In this game alone, he had 27 carries for 110 yards.

Usually, shrinking the game is a good strategy against the Chiefs, because you want to maximize their mistakes like the dropped passes, fumbles, and penalties. Those hurt more if the Chiefs are only getting like 8 drives in the game, which is basically what they had in this one if you ignore the kneeldown to get to halftime after a penalty.

But the Chiefs didn’t hurt themselves that badly in this game. Sure, Justin Watson could have made a better play on a third-down pass on the opening drive that led to a field goal. Mahomes missed a couple of throws in the end zone, settling for a second field goal. But after those couple of misses, the Chiefs were all business with 3 touchdowns.

Patrick Mahomes looked great in his first road playoff game as I expected he would. Travis Kelce ended his 7-game drought without a touchdown by scoring twice. Isiah Pacheco chipped in 97 yards. Even MVS looked competent with catches of 32 and 30 yards. In fact, the Chiefs had 8 plays that gained 20 yards, a huge edge over Buffalo (0) that allowed the Chiefs to score 27 points despite barely possessing the ball. The Bills held the ball for 37:03. This is already the third time in his career that Mahomes has led the Chiefs to at least 27 points in a playoff game despite not having the ball for at least 25 minutes. No other quarterback has done that more than once.

This game was an offensive gem for both teams until the Chiefs scored the go-ahead touchdown (Pacheco 4-yard run) with 14:20 left to take a 27-24 lead. Shortly after that, this one went off the rails.

To Kansas City’s credit, Steve Spagnuolo’s defense has been great at adjusting in the second half all year. They needed until the fourth quarter to get on track here as Buffalo’s only third-quarter drive was a 15-play, 75-yard touchdown march that took up 8:25. That’s always the concern when you have a team using clock and scoring touchdowns to limit Mahomes’ opportunities.

But after Allen had another designed run for 8 yards, the defense made their mark with a run stop that got James Cook 3 yards behind the line. Allen’s pass on 3rd-and-5 for Stefon Diggs was batted down at the line and it was a 3-and-out.

But instead of punting, the Bills ran a fake to Damar Hamlin of all people, and he only gained 2 yards, giving the Chiefs the ball at the Buffalo 32. Supposedly they caught the Chiefs with 10 players on the field and gave it a shot, but I hate that call. It’s just too risky in that spot.

Pacheco immediately ripped off a 29-yard run to the 3 and it looked like that fake punt was going to be the dagger and put the Bills down 10 points. But I had my most prescient moment of the weekend when I warned Saturday night that the Chiefs could try something excessively stupid with Mecole Hardman in this game:

Hardman already got a carry earlier in the game and fumbled in the red zone, which the Chiefs were lucky to recover. Sure enough, they gave him the ball again on a trick play and he fumbled it through the end zone, reaching too hard for a touchdown he’d never get. One of the worst rules in football was correctly applied after a Buffalo challenge, and the Chiefs coughed up their worst Obligatory Fumble of the season.

Just couldn’t help yourself, could you, Andy? No Kadarius Toney (inactive), but you had to make sure Hardman made his mark on this one. I thought that would doom the Chiefs, but again, the run defense made the difference by stopping Cook for a 4-yard loss. Allen threw a deep ball on 3rd-and-12 and Trent Sherfield, playing more for an inactive Gabe Davis, was unable to come down with it. He had a chance.

The Chiefs also had a chance with solid field position (own 43) to put this one away, and they even got a controversial defensive pass interference penalty to convert a third down when it looked like the contact was made before the ball was released. Thankfully, no one is going to care about that one as the Chiefs punted 3 plays later.

The Bills took over with 8:23 left and tried to slow-walk this one down the field. The drive was long, but it was almost constant short throws by Allen. By stuffing Cook for -7 yards on the last two series, I think the Chiefs spooked the Bills out of not running anymore. Right or wrong, the Bills put the ball in Allen’s hands on 10 straight plays on this drive.

It wasn’t going all that great. Allen fumbled on a 3rd-and-10 run and it was a miracle the Chiefs didn’t recover before the Bills did. Looking more and more like fumble bounce fortune was going to end the Chiefs’ season and repeat bid.

Allen converted a 4th-and-3. Cook eventually received 2 carries on the drive, but they went for no gain and 1 yard. I said this drive was full of short throws, but it started with a deep ball for Diggs, who did a horrible job of locating it.

Diggs had a season-low 24 yards on 11 targets against the Chiefs in Week 14. This time, he caught 3-of-8 targets for 21 yards, fumbling on the first snap of the game (Bills batted it out of bounds for a penalty), and making that egregious effort. His decline in the second half of a season where he only turned 30 needs to be studied, because this was significant.

Allen no doubt had love for the short throws in this one, but maybe he was doing it too much. According to Next Gen Stats, Allen’s 16 completions behind the line of scrimmage were tied for the most in any game since 2018.

Having said that, maybe he could have used a few more at the end of this drive? When these teams met in the divisional round 2 years ago, there were 31 points scored after the 2-minute warning. The game reached that point again, so what would we see this time?

Well, I think Allen tried to recreate one of his touchdowns to Davis from that game. The receiver (Shakir) was open in the end zone but they didn’t come close to connecting on a bit of a wasted snap that quickly brought up 3rd-and-9. On that one, I really don’t know what the plan was from Allen, but that too was incomplete and thrown away. There were no sacks in the game by either defense.

You had to go with kicker Tyler Bass from 44 yards out at that point. If you play this game long enough, no kicker is perfect in these situations. But Bass has not established himself yet as someone who you would call reliable in the clutch. After this miss, now you wonder if his career is going to tank like many before him have seen happen after they miss a legacy-defining field goal in the playoffs.

With 1:43 left, Bass’ kick was wide right, the worst fate you can have as a Buffalo kicker as it immediately recalls what Scott Norwood did at the end of Super Bowl 25, which is sadly still going to be the closest the Bills ever were to winning a Super Bowl.

The Chiefs just had to hand it to Pacheco twice for a first down, and that was the ball game. The Chiefs held on for a 27-24 win as no points were scored in the final 14:20 after such a stellar start for both offenses. Mahomes’ road playoff debut was a huge success.

The fake punt didn’t really ruin Buffalo’s game thanks to the Hardman fumble cancelling it out, but would things have gone better without that? Then again, the punter was injured and not doing well all night. Maybe the Bills are just cursed this time of year, and something will always go wrong, and it seems like special teams are often at the forefront of that (Norwood, Music City Miracle, not kicking short to burn time in the 13 seconds game, etc.).

Once is an accident, twice is a coincidence, but three times is a pattern. The Bills can beat the Chiefs by 35 points in the regular season next year and I cannot in good faith pick them to win the next playoff matchup.

I’m out on Buffalo if Mahomes and the Chiefs are involved.

Packers at 49ers: Did Love Text a Dick Pic or Incriminating Welfare Scam Question Before His Favreian Interception?

The future may be bright for the Packers again with Jordan Love at quarterback. But if Saturday night is any indication of things to come, the future may resemble a lot of the past three decades as well.

Jordan Love paid homage to Aaron Rodgers and Brett Favre in the same night by throwing a disastrous game-ending interception and losing to the 49ers in the NFC divisional round. The Packers are now 0-5 in the playoffs since 2012 against the 49ers, including an 0-3 record for coach Matt LaFleur.

Oh, what could have been this time. Like last week, the Packers won the coin toss and rightfully chose to receive. Take it to that front-running team early. But this time the Packers were stopped in the red zone and held to a field goal, which would become a theme of the night.

Brock Purdy had an interception dropped right off the bat and in between his completions to Deebo Samuel, who left with an injury after what looked like could have been a huge night for him.

But the Packers messed up the early second quarter drive when they tried to quickly run a quarterback sneak and Love was ruled short. I hate when teams rush the sneak. The best thing about the play is you can usually convert even when the defense knows it’s coming. Take your time, dig in, and get push. The Packers didn’t get enough push and that was a bad turnover on downs. I never saw any real convincing angle to show Love got it for sure to overturn the call.

George Kittle struck with a touchdown on Purdy’s best throw of the half, then the 49ers later had a 48-yard field goal blocked to end the half with a 7-6 lead. I honestly wasn’t sure which team should have felt better about that half. Both left chances on the field for more points and the Deebo injury was big.

The third quarter was some of the best action this postseason. Bo Melton caught a 19-yard touchdown, which was answered by a 39-yard touchdown run from Christian McCaffrey. After 27 straight quarters without a lead change this postseason, we finally had them pouring in. The Packers even had special teams revenge in mind for their horrific performance in the 2021 divisional round loss. They returned a kickoff 73 yards after CMC’s score, but they nearly lost it on a fumble. That set up a 20-yard touchdown drive, and Love threw to Aaron Jones for the 2-point conversion. Speaking of Jones, the Packers had been a bit of an outlier this postseason as the only real road team who was winning games and running the ball well. Jones had 108 yards on a tough run defense, though 53 of that did come on one play.

But it was enough to take a 21-14 lead into the fourth quarter. Could it have been better? Sure. Love threw behind his tight end and the pass was tipped for an interception, only his second pick in the second half of the season. That set the 49ers up at midfield as the final quarter approached.

But isn’t a 7-point lead usually enough to beat Kyle Shanahan’s 49ers? Yes and no. The stat they showed during the game was that Shanahan is 0-30 when entering the fourth quarter and trailing by 5+ points. He’s now 1-30. But that isn’t the same as saying Shanahan has never won a game when trailing by 5+ in the 4th quarter. In fact, the 49ers were down 24-17 late when they came back to force overtime against the 2021 Rams in Week 18. That win is how they made the playoffs that year.

In those playoffs, they were infamously down 10-3 in the fourth against the No. 1 seeded Packers in the divisional round when they blocked a punt for a game-tying touchdown with 4:41 left before winning 13-10 on a last-second field goal.

That means of the 3 times Shanahan has won a game when trailing by 7 points in the fourth quarter, 2-of-3 were in the playoffs against LaFleur and the Packers. Ouch.

Shanahan’s 0-for stat, which did not apply here and is still active, is that he is 0-38 when the 49ers trail by at least 8 points in the fourth quarter. We’ll see if that one comes up the rest of this season.

The season is continuing after a big finish from the team. Rookie kicker Jake Moody had that big game-deciding miss in Cleveland this year, but he looked good on a 52-yard kick on the first snap of the fourth quarter to make it 21-17.

The 49ers got the ball back and reached the Green Bay 40, but the drive stalled once Purdy tried throwing deep on 3rd-and-10 for Ray-Ray McCloud. That seemed like an insane decision, but that’s what happens when Deebo is out, and Brandon Aiyuk was oddly quiet.

Jones broke his 53-yard run, and that looked like it might be a dagger. But the Packers stalled again, and rookie kicker Anders Carlson was about to join the infamous list of kickers who choked in the playoffs. He’s had his struggles this year, missing 5 extra points, and this was going to be a 41-yard attempt, which shouldn’t have been so bad. I was worried about Moody for the 49ers, but Carlson should have been the one on my radar instead. Sure enough, he pulled the kick wide left with 6:18 left.

It wasn’t nearly as bad as what Gary Anderson did for the 1998 Vikings to ruin his perfect season and fail to give his team a late 10-point lead. But it would have been a big kick for Carlson’s team to go up 24-17 with overtime a possibility in the worst-case scenario. But now he left the door open for the 49ers to take the lead and break the hearts of Packers’ fans again.

I thought Purdy had an underwhelming game and his accuracy was spotty all night. But when it came to the drive of the game, he was money this time. He was 6-of-7 passing with a drop by Kittle. He found Aiyuk for a key 3rd-and-5 pickup. He scrambled for a good 9-yard gain in the red zone. On the next play, McCaffrey took the handoff for an easy 6-yard touchdown run, his second of the game. It almost looked like the Packers let  him score, and given the situation (3rd-and-1, 1:11 left), maybe that was the right call.

But I hated the idea of Carlson’s next kick being one that would determine if Green Bay still had a season left. He probably wanted no part of that kick either, but first the offense had to get him out there.

I attacked Favre and Rodgers for years for their performances in these spots. Favre was in the situation a ton, so he had a lot of game-winning drives, but boy did he have a lot more awful turnovers. Rodgers got better at this in the second half of his career, but he was still prone to taking sacks and not being aggressive enough.

We are still of course learning about Love but yikes, what an impression he left in the biggest moment of his career so far. He had 67 seconds and 3 timeouts, so that is plenty of time to get a field goal even if you had to get that sucker within 35 yards for this kicker to make it.

It looked a little like pulling teeth to get that initial first down, but sometimes that is the hardest one to get. But after using the first timeout with 52 seconds left, I never imagined Love would make such a reckless, awful throw on 1st-and-10. I don’t know what he thought was going to happen, but Dre Greenlaw was there for another pick. Instead of going down and ending the game, Greenlaw was relentless in trying to return the ball. Did he tell his cash-strapped friends to bet $$$$$ on 49ers -9.5 or something? Jesus Christ, get down, man.

The 49ers had separate drives with a 53-yard run and a 38-yard completion and scored no points on either drive. They had a 41-yard field goal to take a 7-point lead and missed it. They were maybe 30 yards away from another game-tying field goal attempt and threw a horrific pick that only would have looked more like Favre if Love was wearing Crocs and texting how to defraud the Mississippi Welfare Fund.

It was a classic Green Bay playoff loss, and it’s good to know the new era is going to share a lot in common with the past two. Better find a Reggie White or Charles Woodson again. Someone who will put down Purdy or hold onto his interception in the big moment.

But hats off to the 49ers too. This was the kind of game I questioned if they could win since they had no game-winning drives all season and rarely were tested this way. They showed they can overcome a slow start and some adversity like the Deebo injury. It should serve them well the rest of the postseason.

Buccaneers at Lions: The Baker-Goff Sunday Matinee We Deserved

Given the lack of history between these teams, I didn’t know what to write to fill up their game preview, so I spent about 1,100 words on showing some appreciation for Jared Goff and Baker Mayfield. They’re both No. 1 picks who have been accused of being play-action merchants and products of Sean McVay and Kevin Stefanski, but both have now won playoff games with different teams, and not anyone can end long playoff droughts for the f’n Cleveland Browns and Detroit Lions.

So, this may not have been your typical divisional round matchup, but the quarterbacks and teams put on a good show in a competitive 31-23 game that got increasingly higher scoring as the talent took over.

Early on, the defenses were making it tough to earn anything. Mayfield had a pass deflected off Mike Evans’ hands that was intercepted on a third-and-long, and the Bucs should have picked off Jared Goff in the end zone on that drive, but he got away with it (drop by Jamel Dean) and the Lions got a field goal out of it.

But that was what made it a good game as the defenses were playing well and making the offenses really earn every first down and point. The Bucs had the upper hand in running the ball early, which was surprising given they were the 32nd-ranked run game again this year, but neither team ran the ball well at all in Week 6. Eventually, the Lions did figure things out and Jahmyr Gibbs popped a 31-yard touchdown run to start the fourth quarter that broke a 17-17 tie and was in effect the game-winning touchdown. Gibbs finished with 74 rushing yards, and tight end Sam LaPorta had 9 catches for 65 yards, so it was another successful outing for the rookie class of the Lions.

Tampa hit the upright on a 50-yard field goal late in the first half, but it did rebound by getting the ball back and Mayfield threw a touchdown to Cade Otton, another young tight end who played well and tied the game at 10 at halftime.

I thought Mayfield played quite well, but there were some troubling mistakes that you’re not sure if it was his fault for missing something pre-snap or if it was a coaching mistake. But there is no reason for Aidan Hutchinson to come in unblocked off the edge on multiple occasions, including a 3rd-and-4 sack to start the third quarter that knocked the Bucs out of field goal range. Hell, the kicker (Chase McLaughlin) probably would have missed again anyway. But that was a mistake that happened a few times in this game.

Speaking of mistakes, I thought the Lions were hosed on a chop block to wipe out a 25-yard gain on 3rd-and-10 deep in their own in the third quarter. It looked like David Montgomery went to block the defender before his lineman did, so that call was pretty weak to me. But the Lions ended up getting the ball back and scored a go-ahead touchdown on a 4th-and-1 run by Craig Reynolds after some passes were unsuccessful by Goff. Just pound it in, Detroit.

But I have my complaints with Dan Campbell too as I felt he was asleep at the wheel when he didn’t challenge if Baker was down on a sack before he threw a ball away to almost end the quarter. It looked like his calf was down and that would have made it a lot tougher on the Bucs to convert. Instead, they threw a screen on 3rd-and-10 and Rachaad White scored a 12-yard touchdown on a great call to tie the game.

Gibbs was absolutely dominant on the game-winning drive with 57 of the 75 yards. The Bucs went 3-and-out, and it looked like the Lions put it away with an 89-yard touchdown drive where Amon-Ra St. Brown was the star this time. He converted a 3rd-and-15 with a strong YAC effort to just get over the line, then finished the drive with a 9-yard touchdown to make it 31-17 with 6:22 left.

St. Brown had his ninth straight game with at least 6 catches and 70 yards. Only Marvin Harrison (2001-02 Colts) and Travis Kelce (2020-21 Chiefs) have done that for 9 straight games in their careers.

But Mayfield kept the game alive and led a great drive with a 4th-and-14 conversion to Evans, who also caught a 16-yard touchdown with 4:37 left to make it 31-23. The Bucs went for 2, and Evans is usually excellent at acting and embellishing to draw DPI flags, but he didn’t do it well here and there was no call despite the defensive back not playing the ball that well. The Bucs still trailed 31-23.

This decision always gets defended as the “analytics play” and NBC’s Cris Collinsworth went through the explanation of it again. I get it. I don’t mind it. I probably would have gone for it too in this game with the way it was going.

But I just hate the way people hammer on this like it’s some amazing cheat code to win games or that it’s always the right, obvious call.

Because it’s not.

I ranted about this on Twitter already, but first, we have to stop pretending that all teams down 14 in the fourth quarter are trying to win in regulation when we know most of them are thinking of tying the game. Todd Bowles does not strike me as the kind of coach who would go for the go-ahead 2 if his team scored its second touchdown with 2:00 or 1:05 left in the game either. He’d think he was playing for overtime.

Also, this is the playoffs and the rules have changed for overtime where both teams are guaranteed possession now. So, would overtime really be that bad of an outcome now when it can no longer end after a touchdown drive like in the past?

The only other thing I’ll say is it never seems to be acknowledged just how aggressive you can make the other team when you do this. Don’t you think Detroit might approach the following drive a little differently if it was up 6 points instead of 7 or 8 points? If you’re up 8, you can be a little safer with that cushion. Same way a team approaches things differently if it was down 1 point instead of in a tied game. If you do this move and get it right on the first touchdown, you’re giving the opponent two chances to be more aggressive. Detroit is more aggressive than most to begin with, but encouraging the Lions to be extra aggressive isn’t the smartest move in my view.

  • Since 2021, 48 NFL teams have scored a touchdown in the fourth quarter while down exactly 14 points with a point after decision to make.
  • 34 teams kicked the extra point, and those teams were 8-25-1 (.250) in the game.
  • 14 teams went for the 2-point conversion, 9-of-14 (64.3%) were successful, and they were 2-12 (.143) in the game.
  • The average extra point kick came with 8:48 left to play.
  • The average 2-point conversion came with 5:47 left to play, so there is a time element to consider as this strategy should be attempted with less time left in the game.

If you ask me, 2-12 when your only wins are the most improbable comeback of the 2023 season (Tennessee in Miami) and a game where the Saints choked on a field goal in Green Bay after having nearly 3:00 to set it up are not a ringing endorsement here. Tua had almost 2 full minutes in that Miami loss too just to get the No. 1 offense in position for a winning field goal. Again, you can’t control the clock like you think you can.

Anyways, it ended up being a bit moot. The Lions almost were too good on offense as they started the drive with 3 consecutive first downs: 15-yard pass, 11-yard run, and a penalty that wiped out a sack. But the Lions didn’t gain another first down and the Bucs got the ball back with 1:59 and 1 timeout left at their own 10 in a 31-23 game.

Baker has done this before, but the Lions aren’t the Raiders in a low-stakes Thursday night game. Just two plays into the drive, he forced a pass over the middle and Derrick Barnes made the pick of his life to send the Lions to the NFC Championship Game. Fron 1 playoff win during 1958-2022 to 2 playoff wins in January 2024. Crazy stuff.

Speaking of crazy, the Bucs still had their final timeout left after the pick. The Lions did them a favor by taking a knee quickly on second down, so after Goff took a knee on third down with 37 seconds left to bring up fourth down, why in the hell would Bowles not call his last timeout with over 30 seconds left?

The ball was at the Tampa 31. It would have been a 49-yard field goal attempt for a so-so kicker. He could have missed or it could have even been blocked, giving Tampa the ball back with over 25 seconds in a one-possession game. To just let the game end was insane, and the NBC broadcast didn’t even acknowledge this happened.

Asked after the game, Bowles tried saying they’d have 12 seconds after the field goal. Not a chance. They likely have over 30 seconds left, which even in an 11-point game would still be a chance even if it’d require one of the craziest comebacks ever. But even if it was 12 seconds, you don’t just give up on the game like that. If this weekend showed anything, you don’t trust a kicker from 49 yards away to make the kick.

The better team, better coach, and better quarterback won in the end. Now let’s see what the Lions have left for a road trip as a big underdog. Watching them win as a home favorite in back-to-back weeks in the playoffs was cool, but they have a much tougher test coming up in San Francisco.

Texans at Ravens: They Had Me the First Half, I’m Not Gonna Lie

Ending with the game that started the weekend, Houston’s 34-10 loss in Baltimore was a sobering reminder of just how hard it is for a rookie quarterback to succeed in the NFL’s postseason against a great defense, especially on the road.

Sure, C.J. Stroud did well at home against Cleveland last week, but the Browns did not travel well defensively this year. Baltimore has been legitimate all year on defense, and it made some history in this game by being able to hold the Texans to just 3 offensive points. The only Houston touchdown was a punt return.

The Texans set a record for worst margin of defeat (24 points) in NFL history for a team that had no turnovers and no sacks in a game.

In fact, the Texans are the first NFL team since 1940 (regular season or postseason) to lose by more than 10 points in a game where they had no offensive touchdowns, no sacks, and no turnovers.

This is a near-impossible combo of stats to pull off in a game, and the Texans only had one missed field goal and one failed fourth down too. The list of teams to have no sacks and no turnovers and only score 10 points (or fewer) is small at just 24 teams in the Super Bowl era. One of those teams was the 2023 Chargers in their 6-0 win over the Patriots this year.

You would have figured Stroud threw a pick parade or took a handful of sacks like he had in Week 1 when these teams played. But it was nothing like that. Just stopped them cold time and time again. Sure, they dropped a pick in this game, but they didn’t even need a turnover to keep them out of the end zone. They shut down the running game completely as Devin Singletary had 9 carries for 22 yards.

But for a half, the Texans were hanging in there with Baltimore. I don’t believe this is a case of Baltimore’s past playoff failures getting in their heads. I think it was more like “we blew off Week 18, we had a bye week, and we’re not as sharp as we need to be” for about a half.

But DeMeco Ryans went against his script and was very aggressive with blitzes, and it is hard to deny it worked for a half. On six drives, they forced the Ravens into a 3-and-out 4 times, gave up a 53-yard field goal to start the game, and only allowed one 76-yard touchdown drive. Lamar Jackson was sacked 3 times in a half that saw him net just 23 passing yards. His damage was on the ground where he had 50 yards.

If the Texans didn’t miss a 47-yard field goal with 32 seconds left in the half, they likely go to the locker room with a 13-10 lead. Not bad for a team with an offense that couldn’t find the end zone, and one that racked up 8 penalties for 50 yards as pre-snap penalties killed the Texans early in this game. That’s a good sign of an inexperienced team that was struggling to communicate on the road.

But the second half was a runaway by the Ravens, who put together 3 straight touchdown drives while the Texans floundered. Just like that, it was 31-10 with 5:00 left and the rest of the game was a formality.

The first drive of the half for each team set the tone for the rest of the game. The Ravens adjusted to Houston’s blitzing, and after Jackson avoided a red-zone interception that was dropped, he took off on a 15-yard quarterback draw for a touchdown. While Stroud had a few impressive throws in the first half, Houston played too scared with him on early downs with ineffective runs and short throws. A screen pass lost 5 yards and short-circuited Houston’s drive in Baltimore territory. They punted and never threatened the rest of the game.

Isaiah Likely caught a 15-yard touchdown, then Jackson ran for another 8-yard score, giving him 2 by air, 2 by ground to tie a playoff record. It was the first time the Ravens scored more than 20 points in a playoff game under him.

The future is bright for Houston, but that team just wasn’t ready to win a game like this.

The Baltimore offense from the second half will need a similar performance against the Chiefs, who look prepared this postseason for these big games. Both teams will provide each other’s biggest challenge this season.

Next week: I think we are getting the best possible championship game matchups this season could produce. Cowboys and Eagles imploded, and we already saw the 49ers crush them. Give Detroit as an underdog a shot. You know they’ll at least be aggressive.

As for the AFC, is there any team in the league that you’d trust more to knock off the No. 1 defense on the road than the Chiefs? If the Ravens want this to go down as a historic defense and team, they must take out Mahomes and the champs. It’s a perfect storyline as this was supposed to be the new AFC rivalry years ago, then Buffalo and Cincinnati substituted instead since the Ravens couldn’t win in the postseason or keep their QB healthy through December. Now we get to see it with the Super Bowl on the line.

Can’t wait for that one and it’s on first.

NFL Stat Oddity: 2023 Wild Card Weekend

~ Scott ~ 3 Comments

And that’s why we don’t call it Super Wild Card weekend, because not much was super about that 3-day trek of games. Sure, we saw dazzling playoff debuts for C.J. Stroud and Jordan Love, the Detroit Lions finally won a playoff game for the first time since 1991, and the fraud department was busy sending home teams who didn’t stand a chance of going the distance (Dolphins, Steelers, Eagles), or it exposed the defenses who beefed up their stats against the weakest opponents (Cowboys and Browns) and folded when it mattered most.

On those fronts, it was a strong week of action. But if you told me every home team would win except for Dallas, the team that won 16 games in a row at home and usually in dominant fashion, I might not have believed you.

I definitely wouldn’t have believed you if you said there wouldn’t be a single lead change in any game after the 12:00 mark in the second quarter of Browns-Texans on Saturday.

But that happened too. The other 5 games were all wire-to-wire wins, putting this postseason on pace for some history in that department if teams don’t start showing up with better efforts.

I’m still getting over the flu, but a good night of sleep is one hell of a dose of self-medication for that. I feel good enough to share some thoughts on these 6 games before I go back for more sleep and to start preparing data, previews, and picks for the divisional round, my favorite weekend of the NFL year.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Browns at Texans: When the Young Kid Puts Down Old Yeller

We might look back one day and laugh at the time Joe Flacco, days before his 39th birthday, was a road favorite over C.J. Stroud in a playoff game. But as someone who picked Cleveland to win a tight one, I’m using this game as a good lesson on what to take away from a recent meeting before a playoff rematch.

The season-long trends mattered more than the recent trends where Flacco was dealing (albeit with a high interception rate), and Stroud was kind of mediocre down the stretch outside of a great job in Indianapolis to get into the playoffs.

But Houston’s ability to scheme receivers open, especially at home, combined with Stroud’s already advanced skills at throwing off platform and giving his guys chances proved to overwhelm a Cleveland defense that I feared was a paper tiger all along. In the playoffs, you aren’t facing Joe Burrow on a bad calf, or a slumping Ryan Tannehill, or getting Matt Canada fired again in Pittsburgh, or feasting on Arizona rookie Clayton Tune.

There was just something fishy about a defense that allowed at least 22 points in every road game this year, and you can’t blame that all on their league-leading 37 turnovers as that has been a problem all year for Cleveland. Blame the offense on the Pittsburgh loss for Deshaun Watson’s 2 turnovers getting returned for touchdowns, sure, but that was not the norm for them.  

Turnovers ended up being a story in this game, but Houston was already up 24-14 in the third quarter before Flacco had his back-to-back pick-sixes that crushed any hope left for Cleveland. But things were already looking bad before that as Myles Garrett contributed more offsides penalties than any impact plays on defense.

Both offenses were hitting plays early as this one was on pace for over 1,000 total yards. But after Kareem Hunt scored his second touchdown to give the Browns a 14-10 lead, the Texans answered back with a 1-play drive that saw backup tight end Brevin Jordan leak open for a 76-yard touchdown. Houston led 17-0 with 12:00 left in the second quarter and we literally never saw another lead change the rest of wild card weekend.

The Browns were stopped on 3 straight drives to end the half as pressure got to Flacco. When these teams met in Week 16 and Cleveland won easily, there were multiple lessons we should have taken away from that game and applied to this one:

  • Obviously, having Stroud back at quarterback was huge, but Houston also didn’t have top pass rushers Will Anderson and Jonathan Greenard in Week 16. They were back and Anderson had 1-of-4 sacks of Flacco.
  • Pressure got to Flacco on that fateful first pick-six, and he tried to throw the ball away, only to have it returned 82 yards for a touchdown by Steven Nelson.
  • Cleveland’s lack of a running game in Week 16 was a problem again as they only produced 17 carries for 43 yards this time. Hunt was stuffed on a key 3rd-and-1 run, which led to Flacco’s next pick-six on a 4th-and-2. If the running game is adequate, he’s never throwing in that desperate situation and blowing the game open at 38-14.
  • Flacco overcame his running game woes in Week 16 with huge plays to Amari Cooper, who had 265 yards. But he injured his heel that game and we didn’t know how he’d play in his return game. He finished with 59 yards and was clearly not 100%, and that didn’t help Cleveland’s cause.

Cooper’s decline of 206 receiving yards is the 5th-largest drop in a playoff rematch in NFL history by a receiver.

Flacco started the game well, but the cumulative pressure got to him, and the double whammy of picks was a game destroyer, making the fourth quarter pretty forgettable as Houston won 45-14.

But you did see the value in this game of having a young quarterback with mobility as Stroud could evade pressure and feather the ball to his receivers with accuracy. The barely mobile Flacco tried to throw one away and it ended up going back the other way for a game-changing touchdown.

I still stand by the data that says there’s no correlation between two team’s turnover margins and what their turnover margin will be in a playoff matchup against each other. Even at extreme levels like the gap in this game, the turnover-prone team usually beats the turnover-averse team.

But there will be no improbable Flacco Super Bowl run this year, and the Cleveland defense is in fact not even close to being a legendary unit. The history made here is that Stroud only needed a half to tie the record for touchdown passes by a rookie in a playoff game with 3.

Dolphins at Chiefs: Still Wish It Was Colder?

My favorite bet for the entire week was Dolphins under 19.5 points. When they usually can’t get to 20 points on the road against good teams in fair weather, how were they going to do it in the 4th-coldest game in NFL history at minus-4 degrees at kickoff?

One 53-yard touchdown pass to Tyreek Hill was all the Miami offense had to muster. The Chiefs were excellent on defense as that was the only 20-yard play they allowed in the game.

When Mike McDaniel thought a 22-20 win over Dallas was enough for his players to tell the media to (with all due respect) “fvck off” about his team’s record against winning teams, that’s what my reaction was all year long to people who thought this team was a serious Super Bowl contender and not just a paper tiger.

McDaniel has now lost 10 straight road games to playoff teams.

All I can add on this loss is that it’s the kind of performance that should make Miami hold off on giving Tua Tagovailoa a record-setting contract extension, because you know that’s what his agent will be seeking as the next quarterback due to get paid. I’m not saying they have to part ways, but I’d be very careful about making that deal happen. He just doesn’t get the job done in games like this, and guess what, Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes don’t look like they’re going anywhere in the AFC anytime soon. Same with Lamar Jackson, and oh yeah, now you have to think about C.J. Stroud in Houston too.

Tua’s QBR of 15.8 made him the only quarterback under 40.0 this week.

But enough about Miami. I want to talk about this Kansas City performance the rest of the way. I thought Patrick Mahomes played very well, and I would not have guessed he’d have that kind of night based on how bad the first 2 snaps looked. But one big 3rd-and-10 conversion to Travis Kelce, who held on that time, and the Chiefs were off to a strong start. Mahomes had a few big scrambles too, and he even cracked his helmet on the frozen night and did not miss a play.

Mahomes did not take any sacks, and the only turnover was an obligatory fumble late in the game by CEH with the game out of reach for Miami. I thought Mahomes had a good read of the blitz from Miami, and he threw the ball away when he had to. The only drawback was the red-zone performance where the Chiefs settled for 4 field goals, looking similar to Week 17 when they kicked 6 field goals against the Bengals. That can catch up with you against a better team than Miami like they’ll play going forward. It also helped that the Dolphins were so injured on defense, which is why I think they just kept blitzing Mahomes, which is usually a no-no.

Throwing some deep balls on third downs to Mecole Hardman, who has the worst ball-tracking skills ever, is another dangerous tactic I don’t want to see the Chiefs continue this postseason against better teams. But they had no problem beating Miami without playing their best.

Now we get a real road game for this team and against a Buffalo team that arguably plays them better than anyone. It could be another classic.

Just glad we don’t have to entertain the Dolphins as contenders anymore this season.

Packers at Cowboys: Doomsday in Dallas Used to Mean Something Different

My preseason Super Bowl pick was Dallas going on a revenge tour, beating the 49ers in San Francisco in the title game, and ultimately losing to the Ravens in the Super Bowl. Well, Baltimore fans better get nervous, because I literally never pick the correct Super Bowl winner, and now my loser is gone after a shocking first-round exit at home in a 48-32 loss.

In Mike McCarthy’s best shot yet to become the first coach to win a Super Bowl with multiple teams, he instead became the first coach to lose to a No. 7 seed. We know the Packers always gave the Cowboys fits during Aaron Rodgers’ tenure, but we might have to expect more years of misery at the hands of Jordan Love after this game.

Right from his first pass on the opening drive, Love came out smoking. In fact, Green Bay’s decision to receive after winning the toss was one of the best coaching decisions all weekend. You need to set the tone when you play a front-running team that is used to leading like Dallas. All the pressure was on Dallas to win this game as the No. 2 seed, and Green Bay was immediately able to take a lead and build that pressure after consuming half the quarter.

Love was masterful in his first playoff start on the road, completing 16-of-21 passes for 272 yards and 3 touchdowns. He had no sacks or turnovers, and his favorite receiver was the open one. Jayden Reed led the team in receiving categories this year, but he had no catches in this game. Christian Watson was the expected No. 1 coming into the season, but he is always injured. He returned this weekend and had only a 9-yard catch against a defense he broke out against in 2022 when he scored 3 touchdowns. It was Romeo Doubs with the dominant game as he had 151 yards and a touchdown. Rookie tight end Luke Musgrave also broke wide open for a 38-yard touchdown as Matt LaFleur was having a great time roasting his predecessor.

I’ve said for 20 years since those pesky 2001-04 Patriots teams won 3 Super Bowls that it can be really advantageous to have a group of talented receivers with no clear No. 1 receiver. That was when the Patriots played dink-and-dunk passing with Troy Brown, David Givens, David Patten, and Deion Branch. Mix in your backs and tight ends, and defenses couldn’t go into games on a weekly basis and figure out who to focus on or draw more attention to with double teams. Technically, it was Troy Brown early on in that run and Deion Branch later, but any of them could get open and do something after the catch on any given play.

The 2023 Packers are kind of enjoying that advantage right now with this young group of receivers, including Doubs, Watson, Reed, and Dontayvion Wicks. Throw in a veteran back and Dallas killer like Aaron Jones (118 yards and 3 touchdowns), and the Packers had a variety of ways to make Dallas look silly.

Similar to the Browns, the Cowboys had some paper tiger warnings on defense since they padded their stats against awful offenses like the Jets, Panthers, Patriots, and those sack merchant lines for the Giants and Commanders (twice each). You saw Brock Purdy shred them in San Francisco. You saw Jalen Hurts at least put up one great game against them when the Eagles were playing better earlier in the year. Even Geno Smith went into Dallas and put on a passing clinic and 35 points, but that usually doesn’t happen to Dallas in Dallas.

But the Cowboys were rough on defense, and they were not prepared for a team with a quarterback who came in red hot like Love. Since the Dallas offense is usually so efficient, the Cowboys also faced the fewest drives of any defense this year, so their per-drive numbers were not elite this season.

But I’m not sure anyone imagined a 48-32 game in favor of the Packers. Worse, it was 27-0 at one point after maybe the worst start to a game in Dak Prescott’s career. You knew it was going to be a long day when he had 0 passing yards in the first quarter for the first time in his career. From the opening drive you could see he was just a little off with CeeDee Lamb after they were so good down the stretch this year. Then Jaire Alexander beat Brandin Cooks to an interception, and the Packers only needed to go 19 yards to make it 14-0.

The Cowboys continued to stubbornly stick with the run on early downs, and Prescott was not getting into a rhythm and converting enough third downs. Down 20-0 at the 2-minute warning, that’s when disaster struck as Dak did not see Darnell Savage on a pick-six that was returned 64 yards to put the Packers up 27-0.

Dallas was fortunate to get a touchdown on the final play of the half after it clearly looked live that there was a false start or something funky pre-snap. But nothing was called, and Jake Ferugson caught the first of what would be three touchdowns on the day.

But the Packers are not the Chargers. They weren’t going to blow a 27-0 lead. This might have been a little more interesting had Dallas pulled off a double touchdown score, but the Cowboys were held to a field goal to start the third quarter, making it 27-10.

Fox’s Greg Olsen put it perfectly. A comeback like this isn’t possible if your defense can’t get stops. I’ve written about this several times now since Super Bowl 51, including this 2018 post about Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady. It’s not like Brady is the only quarterback who could make a 25-point comeback in a playoff game. He just may be the only one who is lucky enough to have his defense hold a juggernaut offense with the MVP at quarterback to no more points the rest of the way and to even force a short field on a fumble.

I’m not deflecting the blame from Dak in this game. He blew it. But it’s also true that Dallas scored 32 points over its final 7 drives, and we might have had a game here if the Dallas defense didn’t allow 3 straight Green Bay touchdown drives to start the second half.

That blown coverage on Musgrave made it 41-16 with 16:27 left in the game, basically asking for Dallas to make the greatest comeback in history at that point. After turning it over on downs, the Cowboys watched the Packers convert a 4th-and-2 for another touchdown to make it 48-16 with 10:23 left. Goodnight, Irene. They couldn’t even get the little 4th-down stop with minimal pressure on both teams at the moment.

But I must say, for being down 32 with just over 10 minutes left, the Cowboys came closer to 8+8+8+8 then you’d ever want to see as the leading team. They didn’t even recover an onside kick. They just used their timeouts, scored quickly, and got the pair of 3-and-outs on defense they needed earlier in the game.

This was an incredible one-handed catch from CeeDee Lamb in the end zone away from Dallas going for 2 to make it 48-40 with just over a minute left. Sure, they’d need to then recover an onside kick and score another touchdown with a 4th straight 2-point conversion just to force overtime, but getting to 48-40 with an onside chance after it was 48-16 not that long ago? That would have been an impressive rally attempt.

But the game should have never gotten that out of hand in the first place, and that is why I wouldn’t be surprised if McCarthy gets the axe for this game. It’s also going to be hard to ever trust Dak in a big game after he had his best season, they were healthy for this game, and he and the offense just laid a turd for the first half.

Green Bay getting hot at the right time behind a quarterback playing outstanding ball is good stuff. We don’t see that too often anymore in the NFL playoffs, so we’ll see if he can slay the San Francisco dragon that Aaron Rodgers never could. He already got past the Dallas dragon that tripped up Brett Favre in the 90s.

But these Cowboys are not the Cowboys of the 90s. The fact that Jerry Jones keeps hanging onto those glory hole days and thinking every year is going to end up like that again is why he must annually be so disappointed when his team flops in the playoffs.

But I have to say, even by Jerry’s standards, this flop was the worst one yet, because things were breaking for them this year.

Rams at Lions: Puka Gets a Tug and No Happy Ending

Of all the games this week that should have been high scoring and come down to the final drive, this was the one to pick. In the end, we got an exciting first half with 38 points and both quarterbacks dealing, and then we got 3 field goals and still not a single lead change after halftime as Detroit held on for the 24-23 win.

Yeah, it’s awesome that the Lions finally won a playoff game. But excuse me for being a little bummed out that this game didn’t have more touchdowns or a better dramatic finish. This was the matchup for it with these underwhelming defenses, and they lived up to it early with all the scoring drives. Detroit scored 3 straight touchdowns to begin the game.

I thought Matthew Stafford played very well through the pain of a cut on his hand that left him bloody. He may have saved the game on the final play of the first quarter by converting a 3rd-and-16 with the Lions already up 14-3 and humming along. But some of the red-zone struggles and difficulty of hooking up with Cooper Kupp proved fatal to the Rams in this one. It also didn’t help that Kyren Williams kept leaving for health reasons as the league’s leader in rushing yards per game only put up 61 yards in Detroit. Stafford must have really felt at home, trying to carry a team with minimal rushing support and a defense that was getting shredded.

But by the end of the night, the Lions barely rushed for more yards than the Rams (82 to 68). Both offenses were 3-for-9 on third down. I thought fourth down might play a bigger role in this game with Dan Campbell being much more aggressive than conservative Sean McVay, but both teams were 1-for-1 on fourth downs.

The Rams can probably kick themselves for outgaining the Lions by 91 yards in a game with zero turnovers and still losing 24-23. But that’s what happens you go 0-for-3 in the red zone at scoring touchdowns and kick 3 field goals under 30 yards.

Were any of the field goals the wrong call by McVay? No, they were all 4th and 6 or longer. They were the right decisions at the moment. My beef with McVay in this game is a common one I’ve had for him going back several years now: He blew his timeout management in the second half again.

Stafford took a sack 3 snaps into the third quarter and McVay wasted a timeout on a 3rd-and-11. Save that shit and take the 5-yard delay penalty. The Rams ended up throwing an incomplete pass and punted. He did it again in the fourth quarter before a 3rd-and-8 deep in his own end, down 24-20. More defensible than the first one, I still don’t think it is worth it most of the time in that situation. The Rams ended up converting by a screen pass to Puka Nacua, who was awesome.

You know Nacua is a real one when he can make Kupp look like a secondary receiver in this offense. Puka was outstanding in his playoff debut with 9 catches for 181 yards and a 50-yard touchdown.

Unfortunately, Nacua was also involved in the play of the game that will be remembered most by Rams fans. On 3rd-and-14 at the Detroit 44 with 4:20 left, the Rams were in a tough spot. A conversion is hard there, but at least they could get some yards and try a reasonable go-ahead field goal. Stafford went for the big play to Nacua, and his jersey was grabbed from behind and the pass fell incomplete. Receivers usually get that call but there was no flag this time.

The Rams really had no choice but to punt from their 44, and they were down to just 2 clock stoppages because of the piss-poor clock management earlier. The Lions are good in these situations because they are aggressive under Campbell, and they were able to run out the clock after 2 first downs on pass plays. Amon-Ra St. Brown had a great playoff debut too and got over 100 yards on the night with his 11-yard catch to seal the game.

Goff had a couple of scary plays in this game that serve as reminders for why you don’t like to trust him in big games. But overall, he played well, and the Lions did enough to survive this one. Now they get to host the Buccaneers with a shot at the NFC Championship Game very much in play as they are a home favorite this week.

From no playoff wins in 31 seasons to possibly an NFC Championship Game appearance or more? Crazy stuff for Detroit.

Steelers at Bills: The Standard in Postseason Scoring

The downside to the Steelers making the playoffs has become the quick exit that almost feels inevitable. Pittsburgh lost its fifth playoff game in a row, meaning Mike Tomlin has not won any playoff games in the last 7 seasons (2017-23).

This is also the fifth time under Tomlin that the Steelers allowed at least 31 points in a playoff game while forcing no takeaways. The only team with that many playoff games since the 1970 merger is the Denver franchise, which has done this 6 times. But the Steelers have done it 5 times since 2007.

  • Pittsburgh is the first team in NFL history to allow at least 31 points in 5 straight playoff games.
  • Pittsburgh has allowed 202 points in its last 5 playoff games, the most in any 5-game span in playoff history, surpassing a record they already held with 187 points in 2016-21.
  • Pittsburgh has scored at least 16 points in 29 straight playoff games, extending its NFL record in that area but that’s not making up for the recent blowouts.
  • Pittsburgh is the only NFL team with an active 5-game losing streak in the playoffs where it failed to cover the spread in each game.

Pittsburgh’s best hope in this game was for it to be played during whiteout conditions with heavy snow and wind, increasing the likelihood of randomness like fumbles. But after watching it play out at its rescheduled time on Monday in fairer cold conditions, I’m not so sure Buffalo still doesn’t win comfortably.

Not when Josh Allen had 1 fe”r rushing yard than the 75 yards the duo of Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren combined for. The Steelers were supposed to be the more physical team that leaned on their backs, but James Cook outrushed them too with 79 yards on 18 carries for Buffalo. Most of Allen’s damage was on his 52-yard touchdown run, which featured some really poor tackling from the Steelers, a common theme on the day.

Without T.J. Watt available, the Steelers struggled to force any splash plays against the Bills, who did not even flirt with a turnover. No real dangerous throws from Allen, and they had no fumbles to lose. Since 2017, the Steelers are now 2-13-1 when Watt plays fewer than 50% of the snaps in a game.

It is hard to decide which side of the ball hurt the Steelers more in this one. The offense came out playing scared and taking almost no deep shots to the wide receivers. Pittsburgh’s only 20-yard play in the game was a 33-yard gain by tight end Pat Freiermuth, who fumbled at the end of the play and was fortunate it was ruled to go out of bounds because it sure looked like Buffalo recovered it in bounds.

George Pickens was less fortunate on a fumble that set up Allen for a 29-yard touchdown drive that took one play as he found Dalton Kincaid wide open. When it looked like the Steelers were going to cut the 14-0 lead in half, Mason Rudolph made his worst throw in the red zone to waste Pittsburgh’s longest drive (88 yards) with an interception. Allen made his big touchdown run from there to build a 21-0 lead, a big early hole being the common lead in every Pittsburgh playoff loss during this streak.

A blocked field goal saved this from total blowout territory as that led to a 33-yard touchdown drive before the half ended. But even that sequence showed just how poorly prepared the Steelers are for these big games. The Buffalo punter was injured on the blocked field goal. Instead of using his timeouts to try to make Buffalo punt in the last minute of the half, Tomlin sat on his timeouts and only called one on 2nd-and-17 with 2 seconds left? What good does that do? Allen took a knee to end it. After a first-down sack, the Steelers should have been using those 3 timeouts to get a punt block ready. Just poorly managed all around.

After Rudolph threw his second touchdown of the game to Calvin Austin to make it 24-17 in the fourth quarter, this got a little interesting. But the Bills easily drove for quality play after quality play on a 70-yard drive that ended in another touchdown after awful tackling from Minkah Fitzpatrick and company led to Shakir scoring from 17 yards out to make it 31-17 with 6:27 left.

That’s game. A missed 27-yard field goal by the Bills after the Steelers turned it over on downs is the only reason we aren’t talking up 34 points as the new piss-poor scoring standard for this defense in the postseason.

I mentioned at the beginning that Tomlin hasn’t won a playoff game since the 2016 season. If he returns next season for Year 8 of his playoff win drought, it’ll only be the fourth time a team has done that with a coach in the Super Bowl era. Jim Mora (Saints) and Marvin Lewis (Bengals) infamously never won a playoff game in their career. Don Shula’s 8-year drought in Miami (1974-81) led to a Super Bowl loss in 1982, but that was a different league back then. You didn’t have 7 teams making the playoffs in each conference, and he had multiple seasons where he finished 10-4 and didn’t even make the tournament.

The Steelers shouldn’t have been expected to win this game, especially without Watt, but at what point does hanging onto a streak of non-losing seasons prevent the team from ever getting back to real Super Bowl contention? This is purgatory. There’s no high draft pick and quarterback fix to come out of this season, and it’s not like the effort was all that respectable here. Hell, even Miami lost 34-31 and covered the spread with Skylar Thompson at quarterback in Buffalo in the wild card round last year. They at least forced turnovers.

SOS is supposed to be a distress call for help, but when it comes to the Steelers, it’s like the organization is content with the same old shit.

Eagles at Buccaneers: My Apologies to the 1986 Jets and 2022 Vikings

I just want to start by saying I apologize to the 2022 Vikings for comparing the 2023 Eagles when they were 10-1 to your team. The Vikings actually finished with 13 wins and put up a fight in their home playoff loss to the Giants, which came down to the final drive.

I also have to apologize for comparing the Eagles to the 1986 Jets, the only other team to start 10-1 and not get to 12 wins. The Jets rebounded in time for the playoffs to beat the Chiefs in the wild card round and gave a superior Cleveland team hell in the divisional round in a double overtime loss.

After scoring a record number of points (35) for a Super Bowl loser last year, the Eagles scored a season-low 9 points in a 23-point loss to the Buccaneers in the wild card round, completing their full collapse. We will have a new NFC champion again. Only the 2013-14 Seahawks have repeated since 1999.

They knew it was going to be tough going in without A.J. Brown, but DeVonta Smith stepped up with 8 catches for 148 yards. But the running game was held to just 42 yards on 15 carries after the Eagles were the only team to smack the Bucs for 200 yards in Week 3, which feels like an eternity ago now.

Philadelphia’s tackling also made Pittsburgh’s look good. Was there a tackling ban in Pennsylvania passed over the weekend? This was an atrocious effort from a team that looked like it gave up on the season. Jason Kelce’s career possibly ending on a sour note like this is sad.

My favorite bet in this game was the under (43.5), which hit to wrap up 2023 as a season where the under was 15-5 on Monday nights. Loved that bet all season, but I sure did not expect to see Baker Mayfield throw for 337 yards and 3 touchdowns after he could barely move in Carolina in Week 18. But he looked good, and he’s done something Tom Brady couldn’t: win a playoff game with Todd Bowles as his coach.

But you knew it wasn’t Philly’s night when the Brotherly Shove was stopped on a 2-point conversion in the second quarter when the Eagles got a penalty to put the ball at the 1-yard line. The Bucs got extremely low on the play, and the Eagles didn’t get their normal push, and it helped when you send a linebacker high at Jalen Hurts and grab him by the facemask. That definitely should have been a penalty, but now we’ll wait to see if the league makes any move against this team’s favorite play in the offseason.

I thought for sure we’d get only our second game with a game-winning drive opportunity out of this one, but that went to shit in a hurry late in the third quarter. Down 16-9, Hurts tried too hard on a 3rd-and-6 and found himself retreating to his end zone despite the line of scrimmage being at his 14. Instead of throwing the ball away, he dug the hole deeper and took a safety due to the penalty for intentional grounding, the right call.

That made it 18-9, then two plays later, some more of that horrific tackling left Trey Palmer open for a 56-yard touchdown. I would have tried the 2 to make it 26-9, a three-score game, but the Eagles already looked so beaten down that 25-9 was just fine.

But that little sequence killed any chance of a close finish. Mayfield even hit another blitz with a 23-yard touchdown to Chris Godwin for good measure to make it 32-9.

This is the kind of loss that could get Nick Sirianni fired just one year removed from a Super Bowl loss. Hell, they had the best record in the NFL in Week 12 not even 2 full months ago.

The data always said 10-1 was a mirage. The eye test never passed for this year’s team. But to fall this far so quickly, even I am a little surprised this happened.

The NFC truly does love a flash in the pan.

Next week: I think they saved the best game both days for the night slot with Chiefs-Bills the best choice to close the weekend. After all these runaway games, it sure would be nice to get an epic divisional round much like we got in 2021 when every game was decided at the end with two of the matchups the same (GB-SF and BUF-KC). We’ll see what happens but there is usually at least one road upset in this round.

NFL Stat Oddity: Week 18

~ Scott ~ 4 Comments

Just like that, we have made it through all 272 regular-season games in the 2023 NFL season. In Game No. 272, the Buffalo Bills pulled off a stunning turnaround from 6-6 to 11-6 and the No. 2 seed, coming back to win the AFC East for the fourth year in a row on a day the Patriots officially hit rock bottom as we likely saw the last of Bill Belichick on the sideline there.

The Steelers and Packers are back in the playoffs. We have a division with only winning teams for the first time since 1935. The winner of the NFC South is (barely) above .500 this season.

And not one goddamn tie all season, a huge win in my book.

As for the Week 18 drama, there were only 9 games with a comeback opportunity, but they were focused in the right games with playoff implications like Steelers-Ravens, Texans-Colts, Jaguars-Titans, Bears-Packers, and Bills-Dolphins.

But before we recap the final 16 games of the regular season, this is my favorite time to review how my preseason predictions for final team records fared. I put in a ton of work on these over the summer as I ended up doing 3 articles per team, so there was a lot of research to come up with fresh angles even if I was ultimately arriving at the same conclusion for each team.

Despite some concerns, I am happy to say I was off by an average of 2.06 wins, my 2nd-most accurate predictions since 2013. I nailed 6 teams to their exact record, including both No. 1 seeds, and I was within 2 games for 21-of-32 teams. I could have had 8 teams with an exact record, which would have been my personal best, but that damn Drew Lock touchdown drive against the Eagles in Seattle did me in. Likewise, I never imagined Patrick Mahomes would give the Raiders 14 points in 7 seconds on turnovers at home on Christmas.

There were 4 teams that I was off by 5-to-6 games for, and you can probably guess one as I made them a huge part of my season story, only to see that go up in smoke after 4 snaps in Week 1:

Yep, I had Aaron Rodgers leading the Jets to a 12-5 record and the No. 5 seed, essentially swapping places with the Dolphins, who I had getting swept by the Jets and finishing 9-8 and out of the playoffs. So much for that when his Achilles tore in Week 1. I’m not sure the Jets would have been an elite team this year with that line and struggles to run the ball, but I think the playoffs were certainly doable with Rodgers.

The first-year success of the Colts and Texans definitely took me by surprise in the AFC South. Missed badly on both of those teams, but I don’t think I’m alone in that. C.J. Stroud was kind of the bland rookie quarterback in this class. Anthony Richardson had the “wow factor” with the ability to run (but apparently his durability slider was turned off). Bryce Young was supposed to be this Improv Short King, but he only got his coach fired after 11 games and Carolina had one of the worst seasons ever. Stroud just hit early and was so impressive in that Bobby Slowik, a Kyle Shanahan disciple, offense with receivers that took a huge leap forward like Nico Collins and rookie Tank Dell.

As for the Rams, my initial thought on them was they’d be a sneaky wild card team this year with Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp, and Aaron Donald coming back healthy. But once I started digging into the roster, I had no clue who most of these other 50 guys were. Puka Nacua? Never heard of him. Kyren Williams? Who cares? But it was Puka stepping up early, Kyren coming around later, and this offense looks strong, and the defense has been respectable despite the massive turnover. Great job by Sean McVay and company to get to this point.

Those were my biggest misses, but for a season that I billed as the year of uncertainty, I’m proud of these results overall. Roughly a quarter of the league had a season-ending injury to their primary quarterback. Only 9 teams started the same quarterback in every game (lowest since 1999). A couple of playoff teams (Steelers, Bills) fired their offensive coordinator more than halfway through the season. It was a challenging season filled with blowouts in big matchups and so many low-scoring games on Sunday and Monday nights.

But I am ready for the playoffs, and my playoff picks in the AFC are what I’m most proud of as I can’t imagine many people nailed the top 3 seeds going the way they did, especially with the Bengals favored in the AFC North and the Chiefs favored to repeat, and I also had the Steelers getting the No. 7 seed with a 10-7 record.

  • 1, Baltimore (13-4)
  • 2. Buffalo (12-5)
  • 3. Kansas City (12-5)
  • 4. Jacksonville (10-7)
  • 5. NY Jets (12-5)
  • 6. Cincinnati (11-5)
  • 7. Pittsburgh (10-7)

My NFC picks were far less stellar, only getting 4-of-7 teams right (all fairly obvious ones), and none in the right seed.

  • 1. Philadelphia (12-5)
  • 2. San Francisco (12-5)
  • 3. New Orleans (12-5)
  • 4. Detroit (9-8)
  • 5. Dallas (12-5)
  • 6. Atlanta (9-8)
  • 7. Minnesota (8-9)

The Saints and Falcons were the teams I was high on because of the schedule, but they blew that golden opportunity. Hats off to Tampa Bay for overcoming the fact that they had to play the Eagles, Bills, and 49ers (went 0-3 in those games too) and the other NFC South teams didn’t, and Tampa still won the division. I liked Baker Mayfield to have a better individual season than Tom Brady did in 2022, but I figured he wouldn’t catch the breaks in close games to have a better record. But Baker surprisingly kept the turnovers low and they got to 9-8.

Finally, I think the Vikings are a playoff team if Kirk Cousins doesn’t tear his Achilles, so chalk that up to an Achilles injury in each conference screwing me up here. Cousins was playing some of his best ball when that happened, so we had to experience some fever dreams with Joshua Dobbs and Nick Mullens. Too bad. At least the close-game regression was real as the Vikings played a league-high 14 close games but only finished 6-8 in them a year after they were 11-0.

But we’ll have other opportunities to review the season and where things stand. Let’s get through these 16 games before I get into playoff mode.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

AFC EAST

We had one game for the division title and the other for a 15-game winning streak to come crashing down as Bill Belichick just had to fvck me out of a $$$ parlay win one last time.

Bills at Dolphins: The Paper Tiger Disintegrates

From 6-6 and the No. 11 seed at the bye week to 11-6 and the No. 2 seed going into the playoffs, no one circled the wagons like the Buffalo Bills this season. The numbers were always there when they were 6-6 with a scoring differential of over 100 points. Just stop turning the ball over so much and stop blowing these fourth-quarter leads in egregious fashion like the Denver game where they had 12 men on the field for a field goal that was missed, or when they let Mac Jones lead the single clutch touchdown drive of his career.

But the Bills pulled off this AFC East title with some help from the Dolphins, who choked away a Week 14 game to the Titans that I would call the worst blown lead of 2023. Then the Dolphins were blown out 56-19 in Baltimore a week ago, continuing their pattern of underperforming on both sides of the ball in big games, especially on offense and on the road. They have also been injured with some key players (Jaylen Waddle, Raheem Mostert, Bradley Chubb, Xavien Howard, etc.) missing this game.

But the Bills have their own injuries to deal with, and even in this game, the Bills tried desperately to throw this game away with 3 more turnovers from Josh Allen, who also botched the end of the first half with a completion short of the goal line with the Bills out of timeouts. No points there to go along with the turnovers all happening deep in Miami territory.

The Buffalo defense had Allen’s back in this one. After Allen’s lost fumble killed another scoring chance in a 14-7 game to end the third quarter, the defense forced a quick punt from the Dolphins. Deonte Harty returned that punt 96 yards for a game-tying touchdown with 13:42 left.

Allen led a go-ahead touchdown drive with 7:16 left while the Dolphins had another quick 3-and-out drive. Allen looked like he could put the game away on his own terms instead of putting it in the defense’s shaky hands again. He had an incredible 15-yard scramble on a 3rd-and-13, then the Bills faced a critical 4th-and-1 at the Miami 37 at the 2:00 warning.

I’m not kicking a 55-yard field goal unless maybe I have Justin Tucker as my kicker. Tyler Bass hasn’t earned that kind of reputation for me. I also hate to trust a defense that has already blown 4 leads in the fourth quarter, and you know Miami is more likely to go for a game-winning 2-point conversion than your average team would. No, I’m going to trust my insane quarterback to run up the gut for that first down on the sneak.

Except the Bills tried that and Allen was stopped short by the slimmest of margins. Oh well, I liked the decision anyway. Now it was on the defense, and after a couple of shaky snaps, they almost came away with a pick. On the very next play, they got the pick as Tua threw an awful pass that was picked off by Taylor Rapp with 1:13 left to seal the division title.

The Bills were definitely looking shaky for the playoffs, let alone the AFC East when they were 6-6. But this 5-0 streak has been built on mostly close wins outside of the Dallas rout. This was the fourth time since Week 14 that Buffalo won a game by no more than 7 points. They had 2 such wins in their previous 13 games.

Now the Bills get to host the Steelers, a favorable draw for the wild card round. Then perhaps they will host Kansas City for a change in the divisional round. This isn’t the best Buffalo team since 2020, but maybe it’s the year things fall in place for them. They are winning the close games, Allen is playing great when he’s not turning it over (he was 30-for-36 for 359 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 67 rushing yards outside of the turnover plays), and they are one of the best defensive teams.

The field also contains the weakest Kansas City team in the Patrick Mahomes era and a Baltimore team that has blown it in January before. Maybe this run propels the Bills all the way, or maybe they lose to Mason Rudolph next week.

Either way, it will be must-see TV. The Bills always belonged in this tournament and now we get to see if they can make it pay off.

Jets at Patriots: Hoods Up

Christ, you know it’s over when Belichick is losing a 17-3 snow game at home to the Jets. There goes the 15-game winning streak against the Jets. It was bound to end this year, but we thought that’d be at the hands of Aaron Rodgers, not a 70-yard passing performance from Trevor Siemian.

The conditions looked brutal, and I can’t imagine many players were enjoying themselves on that field. But it meant a little more to the Jets knowing about the 15-game losing streak and how this was expected to be Belichick’s last game as coach of the Patriots.

Bailey Zappe had 31 net passing yards on 37 pass plays thanks to the 7 sacks the Jets ripped through the line for. Just when you thought Belichick had one last fluke of a win in him after a Zappe interception was fumbled back to the Patriots with 2:44 left in a 9-3 game, Zappe made sure his next throw was intercepted too. Breece Hall hit the 50-yard “FU TD” and that was a wrap at 17-3. With a 4-13 record, Belichick finishes the worst season of his coaching career.

We’ve seen the Patriots without a quarterback. Now we’ll see how long they go without a quarterback and without a coach. That stay in the AFC East basement may be longer than this one season.

AFC SOUTH

We didn’t know for sure Saturday night, but that was the de facto division title game thanks to the Jaguars blowing it on Sunday in Tennessee. C.J. Stroud runs this division now until the Colts can keep Anthony Richardson healthy.

Jaguars at Titans: Full Collapse Revenge

Last year, it was the Titans collapsing with a 7-game losing streak to blow the AFC South after a Week 18 loss to the Jaguars. This year, the Jaguars were 8-3 before collapsing with a 1-5 finish, only beating the Panthers last week. That means Trevor Lawrence lost his final 5 starts of the year.

This game wasn’t all on him as the Titans put on a spirited home effort with Ryan Tannehill and Derrick Henry perhaps playing their final games for the Titans. Henry rushed for 153 yards and a touchdown.

The Jaguars trailed 28-13 going into the fourth quarter and needed a miracle. After a touchdown pass to Evan Engram, the Jags intercepted Tannehill and set up Lawrence 28 yards away from a tie. But all the inefficiencies in this Jacksonville offense from Lawrence’s inaccurate throws to bad runs to penalties led to a terrible drive that consumed 5 minutes off the clock and ultimately came up empty on fourth down at the 1-yard line. Lawrence tried one of the worst quarterback sneaks you’ll ever see as his initial lunge (a la Drew Brees) was well short, then his stretch didn’t get the job done either.

Lawrence got the ball back with 2:18 and 75 yards to go, and he couldn’t even get a first down. He missed a deep shot to an open Calvin Ridley, then threw wildly inaccurate again on a 4th-and-2 to Engram with 1:47 left. Season over. Jags (9-8) were finished.

Even at 8-3, I had a hard time trusting this Jacksonville team as a serious contender. Maybe they finish the job in the AFC South if Lawrence never gets hurt against the Bengals in Week 13, and he did have multiple injuries since to deal with. But even before that, his play wasn’t vastly improved from last year, and the Ridley connection wasn’t the greatest. Losing Christian Kirk hurt this offense more than gaining Ridley helped it.

Now with the way Houston has finished this season with C.J. Stroud, the Jaguars are going to enter 2024 as second-class citizens in the division they never really owned. They took advantage of Tennessee’s 2022 implosion, and the Titans made sure they got them back on Sunday by taking them out for 2023.

But if a certain quarterback in Indy stays healthy and pans out, both of these teams could be looking up to those other teams for years to come. I think 2024 is the year Lawrence will finally start getting held to a higher standard, and with the day soon coming when we start talking about a second contract, I think it’s in Jacksonville’s best interest to wait that one out.

Texans at Colts: Can’t Be Worse Off at Quarterback and Defense 

This was a game I immediately flipped on my spread and total picks for last Monday night. I’m talking straight up deleting what I was writing and going the opposite way before sending them in.

Changing to the under was a good move, but taking the team (Colts) that was worse at quarterback and defense in a big game during this time of year? What was I thinking? Week 2 when the Colts won 31-20 was eons ago. Hell, Anthony Richardson started that game. What did it matter now?

But this game was there for the taking for Indy on Saturday night. They just fell short, and they did it in a way that has me nervous about Shane Steichen in the big moments next time. But the game also reinforced the idea that he won’t be ready to compete for real in this division until he has a healthy Richardson who can go toe to toe with C.J. Stroud in a game like this. Gardner Minshew was not up for it.

Stroud came out throwing a haymaker with a 75-yard touchdown pass to Nico Collins on Houston’s first offensive snap. But despite that brilliant throw, the Houston offense was being contained, and the Colts got back into it by riding their best player, Jonathan Taylor. He finished with 188 rushing yards and a 49-yard touchdown run that helped tie the game at 14 in the third quarter.

But for all of Taylor’s dominance, it only did further damage to getting Minshew in any sort of rhythm where they could rely on him down the stretch. Note that right after Taylor’s long touchdown run, the Colts dialed up 5 straight runs, then asked Minshew to convert a 3rd-and-9. He couldn’t get a completion, and the Colts missed a 57-yard field goal off the upright. That short field for Houston led to the Texans taking a 17-14 lead on a 51-yard field goal.

After the Colts tied the game, Stroud went to work on a surgical drive in the final quarter. He threw for 82 yards on the drive, which was capped off by a 3-yard run from Devin Singletary. The Texans missed the extra point, leaving the door open for the Colts at 23-17 with 6:20 left.

But make note of the difference in strategy for these teams. While the Texans relied on Stroud, who only got any production out of Collins and tight end Dalton Shultz, the Colts could not rely on Minshew to drive them down the field. It was going to be the run game, which took a hit in efficiency with an injury along the offensive line to Braden Smith. Taylor also temporarily left the game injured and did not look as great down the stretch.

In the last 1.5 quarters, the Colts ran the ball 16 times for 27 yards with a 25% rushing success rate. Eleven of those 16 carries failed to gain more than 2 yards, and the longest run in that stretch was 6 yards.

Minshew was able to hit Josh Downs for a 28-yard gain to get the drive going, but the Colts continued to rely on the run, even choosing to run on 3rd-and-6 and 3rd-and-5 situations that almost every team calls passes for. One such run worked thanks to a penalty on Houston (automatic first down) and the other did convert at the 2-minute warning with the Colts looking to score the touchdown as late as they could.

But everything went to shit after the 2-minute warning hit. The Colts called 2 more Taylor runs, and he went out of bounds both times, burning a total of 12 seconds, saving timeouts for Houston, and setting up a 3rd-and-2. That is counter to the clock strategy if you’re so concerned about not leaving Stroud time to answer in an expected 24-23 game after the touchdown and extra point.

Taylor got the call again on 3rd-and-2 and came up a yard short, setting up a huge 4th-and-1 at the Houston 15. Instead of having a play to run quickly like another Taylor run or a quarterback sneak, the Colts let the clock go down to 1:06 and called a timeout.

What the hell? There’s burning the clock and then there’s taking so damn long that you just blew your shot of getting another possession in case you don’t get this. If you get stopped around 1:20 with 3 timeouts left, at least you can quickly create another possession. But by blowing that timeout, Steichen put the game on this 4th-and-1, and he was still 15 yards away from the end zone on what was not a good night for his offense.

Worse, Taylor came off the field for the pivotal play, and after calling 7 straight runs, now they decided to let Minshew throw to a backup running back in Tyler Goodson, a player with 6 career catches who had no touches on the night.

While the play was there, the throw wasn’t, and Minshew and Goodson failed to connect. The Texans ended up running it three times, taking an intentional safety, and the Colts tried to lateral around the free kick before the game ended. Season over for Indy and Texans in the playoffs.

I really don’t care if he thinks the running back was open and it was a good play. You can’t put your quarterback and cold running back in that spot after calling 7 straight runs. That’s the kind of throw a Drew Brees could make with a blindfold because he is so used to passing throughout the whole game. He’s in rhythm. He’s also much more accurate than Minshew, but the whole process there after the 2-minute warning was mind-blowingly bad.

You can try playing the clock game, but don’t play yourself. The Colts botched this badly and now another season is over short of the postseason. They better hope Richardson stays healthy and can do plays like the Tush Push a la Jalen Hurts, because that’s a sure conversion if Steichen had his Philadelphia guys on that one.

NFC NORTH

The Lions suffered a big injury (Sam LaPorta) on their way to another win over Minnesota that still left them with a No. 3 seed. The Packers closed this time at home in Week 18 to make the playoffs behind a stellar game from Jordan Love and the 3rd-down defense.

Bears at Packers: Matt LaFleur Moves to 10-0 vs. Chicago

I spent more time in the summer researching the Bears than any other team. I landed on a prediction of 7-10 and behind the Packers, who I had finishing 8-9 in Jordan Love’s first season as the starter.

Well, the Packers got to 9-8 thanks to sweeping the Bears in Weeks 1 and 18. It was good enough for the playoffs too just as it would have been last year when the team lost at home to Detroit in the final game of the Aaron Rodgers era.

But Matt LaFleur simply owns the Bears. He is now 10-0 against them and every win has been by at least 7 points. Jordan Love was fantastic in this game, completing 27-of-32 passes for 316 yards, 2 touchdowns, and no picks. He did lose a fumble on a scramble that left the game in some doubt, but the Bears remain one of the worst comeback teams in NFL history under Matt Eberflus and Justin Fields, and they were not able to erase the 8-point deficit in the final quarter.

That doesn’t mean the Packers made it easy in this quick-moving game (2 hours and 35 minutes). There were only 13 possessions in the entire game, and the Packers  wasted a pair in the first half when they missed a short field goal and failed to get one off to end the half, a mental error by the offense.

Fortunately, the Bears never got the ball in the end zone as the Green Bay defense stepped up with 3 sacks on third downs. Their fifth sack of Fields came on a 2nd-and-16 after the Bears reached Green Bay territory, stifling that drive as well. The Packers got the ball back with 6:08 left, and between good runs and smart throws by Love, they ran out the clock on Chicago to secure their playoff berth.

I don’t know if the Packers are a real threat to Dallas right now. But it makes sense that they were a team that improved in the second half of the season given not only Love’s inexperience but just how little experience the rest of the offense (minus running backs) had going into the season. We probably didn’t hammer that point home enough, and it’s not like this is about developing Christian Watson (disappointing year) and Romeo Doubs. It’s been Jayden Reed, a 2nd-round rookie, and Dontayvion Wicks who have been very productive this year. Reed had 112 yards in this game and Wicks caught both of Love’s touchdowns.

Even Bo Melton, a 7th-round pick from 2022 I never even heard of until a week ago, has come on just in time for Green Bay. He had 105 yards and a touchdown against the Vikings last week and another 5 catches for 62 yards in this game.

The Packers are making it work with Love, who finished second in the league with 32 touchdown passes this year. Tale as old as time, the Packers look better off than Chicago at the quarterback position, and that no doubt played a big difference in the latest Green Bay sweep. This could have been the Bears in the 9-8 wild card position if they had stepped up more against the Packers this year.

Now with the No. 1 pick (thanks, Carolina) and the No. 9 pick, we’ll see what the Bears do at the most important roles on the team.

Vikings at Lions: Offense Shines in Pyrrhic Victory

I can understand why the Lions went full pedal this week. They had a very outside shot of getting the No. 2 seed if the Cowboys and Eagles choked (one did). Still, you get nervous playing your studs in a game like this, and sure enough, the Lions lost tight end Sam LaPorta to a hyperextended knee. He’ll likely miss this playoff run unless it reaches the Super Bowl, and even then, we’ll see.

But it is cool to see Detroit win 12 games, something it only did in 1991, the last season the Lions won a playoff game. This game was a lot like the Week 16 win over Minnesota with Nick Mullens approaching another 400-yard day, but he also threw a couple of big picks again. Jared Goff and the offense shined with all the studs scoring touchdowns (LaPorta, Jahmyr Gibbs, David Montgomery, and Amon-Ra St. Brown).

But LaPorta is a dimension they’ll miss at tight end when they take on the Rams this Sunday night.

NFC EAST

The streak continues. There has not been a repeat winner in the NFC East since the Eagles in 2001-04. Their collapse this year was something to behold, but not necessarily that much of a shock if you paid attention to how they got to 10-1 and how the Cowboys were good at blowing bad teams out.

Cowboys at Commanders: About What You Expected

With a 38-10 win, the Cowboys won the NFC East, secured the No. 2 seed, and notched their 9th win of 20-plus points this year, tying the 1999 Rams for the second most in a season in NFL history. Only the 2007 Patriots (10) had more 20-point wins, and it might be worth noting that neither those Patriots nor Rams won any playoff games by more than 12 points. But they did at least get to the Super Bowl those years with the Rams winning it all.

Dak Prescott has owned Washington his whole career, Sam Howell was lousy down the stretch of 2023, and it’s no surprise the touchdown pass leader threw 4 more scores against the worst defense this year. Ron Rivera should be gone on Monday.

About the only thing that didn’t go well for Dallas was kicker Brandon Aubrey. After making his first 35 field goals this season, he had one blocked from 32 yards and another miss off the upright from 36 yards. Let’s hope that isn’t a sign of the things to come in the playoffs for him after an almost-perfect season.

The Cowboys have high expectations for this postseason now that the Eagles have faded to the wild card, and the only team that’s ahead of Dallas in the standings is San Francisco. We’ve already seen the Cowboys beat the Lions, controversial ending or not.

Time to turn all these fancy numbers into some playoff wins, Dallas.

Eagles at Giants: Viking-Ass Team

On the day the Eagles improved to 10-1 with an overtime win over Buffalo, I said they look more like the 2022 Vikings than they do the 2022 Eagles. The 2022 Vikings are the only team in NFL history to win more than 11 games with a negative scoring differential.

Several people (read: Eagles fans) didn’t like the tweet at the time, but I can only call them when I see them. The 2023 Eagles are my greatest case of fraud detection since the 2019 Patriots started 8-0. The Eagles limped to a 1-5 finish, getting blown out by the 49ers and Cowboys in big games, embarrassing themselves against Drew Lock (Seahawks) and the Cardinals, and now a 27-10 rout at the hands of the lowly Giants.

The Eagles just barely finished with a positive scoring differential (+5), but it is still the 5th lowest for a team with at least 11 wins in NFL history:

The latest loss is the result when your defense continues to get shredded as Tyrod Taylor threw for 297 yards, and the offense suffers too many injuries. DeVonta Smith and D’Andre Swift were already out to start the game. A.J. Brown soon joined them with an injury. Jalen Hurts injured his finger and eventually left the game early after the score grew to 24-0 and the Cowboys were up big on Washington, making the No. 5 seed a near certainty for the Eagles.

Plenty of days to cover the Eagles-Bucs game, so no need to start writing the same narratives I’ll be leaning on this week here. But let’s just say things are trending terribly for this team and it would be a real shock if this led to another deep playoff run from Philly.

NFC SOUTH

The Saints took too long to heat up on offense this year, and their playoff bid came up a game short as Tampa Bay was able to take care of business in Carolina, which completed one of the worst seasons in NFL history.

Buccaneers at Panthers: Back-to-Back Shutouts for Carolina

It was ugly but the Buccaneers leaned on their defense and the fact they were playing one of the worst teams in the Super Bowl era to pull out a 9-0 win and the NFC South title for the third year in a row.

Baker Mayfield was hurting throughout the game but at least he still threw for over 100 yards, unlike Bryce Young who finished with 94 yards, and nearly half of that came on a 42-yard pass to D.J. Chark that was fumbled through the end zone, a game-saving and possibly season-saving play for the Bucs in this one.

Carolina’s kicker situation wasn’t great this year, and after missing a 52-yard field goal to end the third quarter, the Buccaneers turned that good field position into a 39-yard field goal and a 9-0 lead with 10:18 left.

If you’ve been following the Panthers this year or really the last 5 years, you know that’s basically an insurmountable lead for this team. The Bucs forced a strip sack and the offense ran out the final 6:19 to clinch the division with a 9-8 record, which is better than 8-9 the last I checked. At least one Florida team wasn’t going to blow the division title this Sunday.

The Panthers finish the season with 2 wins and 0 snaps with a fourth-quarter lead. Both wins came on walk-off field goals.

  • Even the 1976 Buccaneers (0-14) blew 1 4th-quarter lead.
  • Even the 2008 Lions (0-16) blew 4 4th-quarter leads.
  • Even the 2017 Browns (0-16) blew 1 4th-quarter lead.

The Panthers are the first team since the 2008 Browns to get shutout in consecutive games. Carolina, you were truly awful this year.

Falcons at Saints: Hit the Road, Art

This game was my favorite over (42.5) of the week as both teams moved the ball very well when they met earlier this season. I just didn’t think the Saints (48 points) would cover the over themselves after a little “fvck you touchdown” to end it that set off Arthur Smith at midfield:

https://twitter.com/NFLonCBS/status/1744103230500422103

After another 7-10 season with baffling usage of his offensive players and failing to take advantage of a weak schedule, this is the end of the road for Smith in Atlanta. The team barely waited until midnight to announce his firing.

What a way to go out, a 31-point loss to your main rival and that little tantrum. Do I think he had a point about the Saints rubbing it in with barely a minute left in a 41-17 game? Yeah, I think that was weak. But he could have expressed it better than this.

Derek Carr threw 4 touchdowns and finished the season strong, but it was just too late after a slow start for the offense. The 9-8 record wasn’t good enough for the playoffs, and you can look a that 1-point loss in Green Bay as the decisive one since that’s what got the Packers ahead of New Orleans. The Saints missed a late field goal in that one as Blake Grupe showed some serious choker DNA. Basically, if they kept Wil Lutz as their kicker this year, they’d probably be in the playoffs.

But both teams should be ashamed of not taking advantage of their schedules. They lived up to the expectations of not having many Super Bowl contenders. Hell, even the Jaguars didn’t get to 10 wins and that was supposed to be one of their hardest games alongside Detroit.

AFC NORTH

The Steelers started Week 18 needing a win in rainy Baltimore, and no one really cared about anything in Browns-Bengals except for the outfit worn by Jake Browning’s girlfriend. That backup is winning in life.

Steelers at Ravens: Sweep the Top Seed but Lose to the Pats and Cardinals (Obviously)

When the Steelers nearly turned the ball over 3 times on the opening drive, you could tell the rain was going to be a significant factor. In the end, each team lost 2 fumbles, but the Steelers had an extra 4 fumbles that they did not lose.

Mason Rudolph still managed to complete 18-of-20 passes in the rain, but 71 of his 152 yards came on a short throw to Diontae Johnson that was mostly YAC for the game-winning touchdown to break a 7-7 tie to start the fourth quarter. Is that the kind of play that happens if the Ravens had Marlon Humphrey and Kyle Hamilton playing in the secondary? Hard to say, but it gives Rudolph 3 touchdown passes of 60-plus yards this year, which is behind only Tua Tagovailoa (4) for the 2023 lead. That’s an absurd but true stat. I’m not convinced that means Rudolph is the long-term answer at quarterback, but some of it does speak to his willingness to give these receivers chances that I think Kenny Pickett lacks in his game right now. That’s why I’d start Rudolph in the playoffs.

And yes, there will be playoffs after the Jaguars blew it in Tennessee and punched Pittsburgh’s ticket early on Sunday. Unfortunately, the Steelers are unlikely to have T.J. Watt after friendly fire took him down with an MCL injury in this game. It’s considered a multiple week injury, but you know he’ll at least lobby to play. Just can’t see that being a smart move or ultimately allowed by the team.

It deserves an asterisk for the rested starters (not to mention the dropped passes in Week 5) but the Steelers did sweep the top-seeded Ravens and were the only team to beat them by more than 3 points this year. If Pittsburgh somehow did pull out a win next week and went to Baltimore for the divisional round, that could be amusing as Lamar Jackson has been I the league since 2018 and has literally never had a good game against the Steelers. He rarely plays them too, but Pittsburgh has been getting the upper hand in this rivalry. But good luck getting past the wild card round.

Browns at Bengals: Still the Coach of the Year

Why exactly did the Browns start Jeff Driskel at quarterback? Felt like Kevin Stefanski, who should still win Coach of the Year, wanted to show off and win a game with a 5th different quarterback this year. But Driskel was dreadful, the Bengals led 31-0, and only in garbage time did Driskel deliver a couple of touchdown throws. But hey, Browns over 13.5 points still hit.

The game did make some history though as the 2023 AFC North is the first division since the 1935 West to have nothing but teams with a winning record. The Bengals finished 9-8 and the other teams all won at least 10 games and made the playoffs.

NFC WEST

Not as many stakes here as the 49ers and Rams rested key starters, but both games had a fourth-quarter comeback with the winning team converting a 2-point conversion in a 21-20 final.

Rams at 49ers: The Rare Carson Wentz Comeback

It’s kind of fitting that a Carson Wentz-led comeback of 13 points in the second half against a No. 1 seed would only happen in a game where both teams were not all that interested in winning. If the Rams truly cared about making sure they won and got the No. 6 seed, they would have started Matthew Stafford, Kyren Williams, Aaron Donald, and maybe Cooper Kupp.

They did play Puka Nacua, who stayed in long enough to set the rookie records for yards and catches in a season. He also caught a helpful touchdown from Wentz, who ended up running 17 times for 56 yards and a touchdown. I guess Sean McVay didn’t really care since this could be one of the last auditions that Wentz gets as a starter in the NFL.

But the 49ers didn’t score on their 4 second-half possessions, the Rams took the lead on a touchdown drive that got jumpstarted with a 48-yard flag for defensive pass interference, and Sam Darnold was unable to set up a field goal for the 49ers, who will be content with the bye week.

But it is a bit concerning that the 49ers are 1-4 in close games and 0-4 at 4QC/GWD opportunities. This will come up during the month in playoff previews, but you’re just not likely to get through a whole Super Bowl run, even if it’s 3 games long, without beating someone good in a close game. This team will have to show it can do that and it’s not like we don’t have years of evidence in San Francisco of Shanahan-coached teams not stepping up in these moments. This loss didn’t matter, but the next time the season will be on the line.

But good for the Rams getting to 10 wins as I really wanted to pick them as a dark horse for the wild card this summer, then I got scared away after not recognizing their roster outside of Stafford, Kupp, and Donald. Really good effort from McVay and company here. And we get to see the perfect wild card matchup in Detroit next Sunday night.

Seahawks at Cardinals: Matt Prater’s Lousy Day

Congrats to James Conner for clinching his first 1,000-yard rushing season in the NFL. He was my favorite prop pick in Week 18, and he delivered in a big way with 150 yards on the ground and 54 more through the air.

It’s just too bad the Cardinals let it go to waste as well as a sweet trick play on a field goal for a touchdown pass from Kyler Murray to Trey McBride to take a 20-13 lead in the fourth quarter.

Matt Prater could have basically iced the game with 3:00 left on a 43-yard field goal that would have made it 23-13 after the Seahawks used their final timeout, but the normally reliable kicker missed. The Cardinals folded like a cheap suit on defense, and in just 4 plays, the Seahawks were in the end zone on a 34-yard touchdown from Geno Smith to Tyler Lockett, who also caught the 2-point conversion to go up 21-20 with 1:54 left.

At this point, it was already clear from Green Bay that the Packers were winning the game and going to the playoffs, keeping Seattle out. That probably influenced the 2-point call too.

The Cardinals still had plenty of time to answer, but after a Conner run to the 30, they botched the end game. Not quite as bad as Steichen and the Colts on Saturday night, but still pretty bad with Murray running out of bounds on a play that took time and went down as a 2-yard sack. Then a Conner run lost a yard.

Prater can blast kicks from 50-plus yards, but he was already shaky on the previous kick and again failed to deliver on the 51-yard game-winning field goal as time expired. The Cardinals finish 4-13 and will have some decisions to make. The Seahawks, who will finish with a league-high 6 game-winning drives, are 9-8 again, but this time they didn’t get the help from Green Bay losing at home to get in a tournament they were unlikely going to advance in past next week.

AFC WEST

Stakes? No, nothing to see here.

Broncos at Raiders: Nope, We Don’t Care

The Raiders won 27-14 as both teams finished 8-9. Next.

Chiefs at Chargers: Easton Stuck in Goal to Go

The Chiefs set milestones aside and rested Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce (among others) with the No. 3 seed a lock. Easton Stick somehow dropped back 63 times, including 13 runs for 77 yards, in a weird game for the Chargers, but they blew it inside the 5-yard line early and late. A Stick fumble was scooped up for a 97-yard touchdown return, then the Chargers couldn’t get it in late and settled for a field goal to take a 12-10 lead. Backup starter Blaine Gabbert had enough legs for a couple of scrambles to set up a game-winning field goal (13-12), and the Chargers of course had no answer in the final minute.

The 2023 Chargers finish 1-10 at 4QC/GWD opportunities and lead the league with 5 blown leads in the fourth quarter. The Chargering brand is still strong.

Next week: It’s the playoffs. I’ll have links to in-depth previews and betting picks (props, upset pick, computer picks, etc.) for every game. The real fun might not start until the divisional round, but there are still plenty of stories from these games. With the way this season has gone, who knows, the Super Bowl teams may be in action on wild card weekend.