Tag: Lions

2025 NFL Stat Oddity: Week 11

~ Scott ~ 1 Comment

I kept calling it the best Sunday of the 2025 NFL regular season. Did it live up to that hype? There were nine games with a comeback opportunity and eight game-winning drives, so that’s pretty good. I’m not sure I’d call any of the games classics or even in the game of the year competition, but it certainly was an eventful day and probably one that should reshape expectations for the rest of the season.

After predictions on Saturday night, I decided to look up how home teams have fared in the big games this season between teams who currently have a winning record. It hasn’t been as strong in recent years, and this year, the home team was 13-16 in such matchups.

Well, the home teams were 5-0 on Sunday, a clean sweep. I like to say the NFL is a league that’s about who you play and when you play them, but it looks like where you play still matters too. We’ll see if that holds up for the playoffs, which your guess is as good as mine if teams like the Chiefs, Lions, and Packers will still be in that tournament at this rate.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Chiefs at Broncos: Game of the Week

It’s 5:35 AM as I ask myself do I feel like ranting about the Chiefs for a long time, or just hurry up and get into a warm bed? I’m thinking the bed sounds better, because there’s nothing that happened here that we haven’t been seeing all year with the Chiefs, who are 5-5 and in danger of missing the playoffs. Forget the AFC West reign likely ending now; they could miss the playoffs altogether because of the way the teams ahead of them keep winning and the future schedules for each.

The Broncos played well, played with a better focus and flexibility, and Spags hasn’t shown any answers for Bo Nix in three games yet. Remember, they win that game in Arrowhead last year if the special teams of the Chiefs didn’t block a 35-yard field goal. Nix had all day on a huge 3rd-and-15 before the two-minute warning, and he threw a perfect deep ball to Franklin to set up the winning field goal late. He did all of that with almost no running game with J.K. Dobbins out.

Meanwhile, the Chiefs threw wildly deep in moments they didn’t have to, forgot to run the ball, and put the game on Mahomes while forgetting to actually get those speedy wideouts involved (Rice and Worthy) against a secondary that didn’t have Patrick Surtain II. It’s getting scary that a 36-year-old tight end (Kelce) remains the most (only?) reliable target in the passing game. They need to find more snaps for Tyquan Thornton, who again made an impact with a 61-yard bomb on a big 3rd-and-7 in the third quarter when the Chiefs pretended to have something figured out in this one.

That’s after a bunch of bad penalties early that kept tripping them up from scoring more points, then even after a great effort by Kelce on the go-ahead touchdown in the fourth quarter, Butker’s extra point was blocked when it should have been a 20-16 game. Maybe the defense can actually force a fourth-down stop had the Broncos needed to go for one late instead of kicking a game-tying field goal.

Then the Chiefs went three-and-out twice after the Kelce score, and they called 12 straight passes to end this game on offense. Lots of mistakes in there with the false start to begin a drive, a low snap on a third down, and another third-down sack. What happened to the scrambling Mahomes was doing in September? They needed that these last two games and he’s just not doing it for some reason.

Can’t keep “saving it for the playoffs” when it doesn’t look like there will be a playoffs if you keep losing these games. Again, the Chiefs gave up a 3rd-and-15 on the game-winning drive. That’s the fourth time this year the defense gave up a 3rd-and-10 conversion in the fourth quarter of a one-score game. They never did it more than three times in any season in 2018-24 (none in 2024).

It’s the first time the Chiefs have lost five-straight one-score games in the Mahomes era. There was always going to be some regression there after a record 17-0 streak before this year, but god damn, someone step up and make a play whether it’s on offense, defense, or special teams. It just seems like no one on this team wants to do it this year and that’s why they keep losing these games to teams who simply want it more and outplay them.

I don’t know how you fix this or if you can at this point. Might just be a lost year.

Seahawks at Rams: Played Again, Sam

No player disappointed more on Sunday than Seattle’s Sam Darnold, who was having such a great year. He was No. 1 in QBR, the Seahawks were killing teams, and he was almost perfect in the first half of these last few games. But man are the Rams his kryptonite, and if you’re a Seattle fan, you’re just worried if anything dressed as a “big game” is a signal for him to shit the bed.

He already coughed up a fumble to lose to the 49ers in Week 1, then marred his epic shootout performance against Baker and the Bucs with a late pick on a deflected pass. In this game, he was facing the pass rush that got him 9 times in January’s playoff loss with Minnesota.

But this time around, it was on Darnold. He threw 4 picks, two of which basically set up the Rams on short fields for touchdowns on a day where Matthew Stafford was nothing special at all. Seattle’s defense played hard, and it wasn’t like Darnold was under a heavy siege by the blitz all day, or if he had to keep trading touchdowns with Stafford. It just wasn’t that kind of game at all.

Even with all the mistakes, the Seahawks got the ball back late in a 21-19 game with a chance to go win it from the 1-yard line. Darnold did not mange the clock well, and if he was a little better, he should have been able to get a field goal attempt shorter than 61 yards. The kick by Jason Myers was nowhere close, and that’s ultimately how Seattle lost this first matchup with the Rams.

The Rams lead the NFC West now and have over 70% chance to win it. Darnold lost the QBR lead too, dropping to fourth. It’s a tough day when you feel like it’s been proven he’s just not a quarterback you can trust in these big games.

This win will give the Rams a lot of hype and praise this week as the team to beat, but we saw how good that did for the Packers at beating Pittsburgh or the Bills after beating the Chiefs. Have to keep stacking wins, and the Rams could have very well lost this game if Darnold wasn’t so brutal.

Lions at Eagles: Suddenly the Defense Is Unstoppable

I felt like I was watching the 10-7 game from Monday night again with the way the Eagles and Lions played this game. I thought Detroit would embrace the opportunity on the road against a contender like it did in Baltimore earlier this year, but I guess Jared Goff isn’t beating the allegations about being an indoor merchant. He was horrible in this game, posting the worst completion percentage of his career.

Guess calling plays against the Eagles is a lot tougher than Washington for Dan Campbell, who saw his offense turn it over on downs five times in a 6-drive span in the middle of the game.

That had to be disappointing for a shorthanded defense that did pretty well in keeping the Eagles down offensively again. But with the defense playing so elite again for the Eagles, it might not matter in the NFC. They can still win it all if they get the No. 1 seed. Much like Seattle, it’s a sobering loss for the Lions with Goff as they are in Year 5 of the Goff-Campbell experiment and running out of time to turn it into a Super Bowl.

If the playoffs started today, the Lions (6-4) would be out as the No. 8 seed.

Buccaneers at Bills: Josh Allen’s Wild Day

I think Josh Allen can dial back the awful two picks he had early in this game, but this is more or less what I think they need from him the rest of the season to get back on track. The Chiefs are struggling, might not even make the playoffs, and the Bills are looking at a wild card at best despite this beautiful schedule that gifted them another home game against a contender like the Bucs.

But the Bills stepped up after a lot of lead changes in this game and put away the Bucs in the fourth quarter. A facemask penalty on a Shakir tackle on third down was huge, leading to Allen’s sixth touchdown of the day.

But I think this is what the Bills need from Allen. Turnovers be damned, just go back to running the offense through him and let him sling it and run around. It helped that the matchup really dictated it as the Bucs are hard for James Cook to run against, but this was  a promising type of win for the Bills.

With the Rams up next, Tampa is spiraling a bit here without its full weapons and shaky secondary.

Bengals at Steelers: Unc Bowl II Ends on a Sad Note

The Unc Bowl II started strong with Joe Flacco and Aaron Rodgers throwing touchdowns, but it quickly devolved into a defensive slugfest with a Mason Rudolph second half after Rodgers injured his wrist. It could be pretty serious too.

Pittsburgh’s defense again made the big splash plays with Kyle Dugger taking back a Flacco pass for a huge pick-six, then a Noah Fant catch led to a fumble return touchdown as the Steelers blew this one wide open in an easy win.

But all eyes on Rodgers’ wrist and the news there. This game was also a sobering experience as it’s likely the last time I ever get to watch a live NFL game where both starting quarterbacks are older than I am.

Chargers at Jaguars: Pure Domination

I learned my lesson the hard way again. You just can’t trust the Chargers against the Jaguars as that’s a third embarrassing loss in the Justin Herbert vs. Trevor Lawrence era. Lawrence was nothing special here, but at least he was part of the game. Herbert threw for 81 yards and left in the fourth quarter with the score out of hand.

Very lifeless game by the Chargers, who are lucky the Chiefs lost again.

Panthers at Falcons: The Bryce Young Show

Now where has this Bryce Young been? He has one game all year with 200 passing yards, then he throws for 448 yards in maybe the best game of his NFL career against an Atlanta pass defense that has been getting a lot of praise for its sacks and keeping the yardage down this year. Make it make sense as Young even did this after getting injured early in the game.

He still led a 14-point comeback while Michael Penix Jr. (DOOM) left the game injured after a great start. Kirk Cousins at least got a game-tying field goal drive to force overtime, but he couldn’t move the offense once he got there. The Panthers were able to get the game-winning field goal and are 6-5 and very much alive for the NFC South with Tampa’s slide.

Falconing at a high degree here.

Ravens at Browns: That’s Why Sander Was a 5th-Round Pick and QB3

It’s funny how you can look at a list of inactives and think Justice Hill being out isn’t a huge deal for Baltimore. But it really was. Hill is a good receiving back, and his presence was missed when backup Keaton Mitchell had a pass go off his hands and into the Browns for a pick-six. Lamar Jackson also had another pass tipped at the line that was picked, he didn’t throw a touchdown to end his 30-game streak, and he took 4 sacks by Myles Garrett alone as Cleveland pushed for an upset bid.

But the Browns didn’t get it because Dillon Gabriel was knocked out for a concussion, and rookie Shedeur Sanders showed he’s not ready and why he slid in the draft with a pretty horrible performance, going 4-of-16 and getting sacked a few times with a bad pick.

But the Ravens still needed a very cool Mark Andrews trick play on the Tush Push to score a 35-yard touchdown run to get the game-winning drive in the books before Sanders’ failed answer drive.

I don’t think Sanders is the solution to Cleveland’s many woes.

49ers at Cardinals: Jacoby’s Record-Setting Day in Defeat

What the fvck are the Cardinals even doing these days? They went from losing very close games on the final play every week to getting blown out before halftime but not before Jacoby Brissett piles up huge passing numbers in a multi-score loss.

The 49ers feasted on short fields and big plays in Brock Purdy’s return game, but the weird story was Brissett tying the NFL record with 47 pass completions on 57 attempts for 452 yards. He also managed to not take a single sack. You’ll see people say he broke the record for completions in a game, which is true for the regular season. But Ben Roethlisberger completed 47 passes in a 2020 playoff loss to the Browns, so he actually tied the record that’s been done before.

It’s amusing that this is done without Kyler Murray or Marvin Harrison Jr. active because of injuries, but it’s not like it’s helping Arizona win anything.

Bears at Vikings: Ben Johnson and Kevin O’Connell Split Close Series

If I looked at the best coaching records among actives in 4QC/GWD opportunities, Ben Johnson (5-2) and Kevin O’Connell (17-16) are near the top. KOC’s Vikings got the best of Johnson’s Bears in his debut in Week 1, and it looked like it might happen again after J.J. McCarthy shook off a pretty horrible 57 minutes before leading a nice go-ahead touchdown drive.

But damn that new kickoff rule. The Bears pulled off a 56-yard kick return, and just like that in a 17-16 game, they were at the Minnesota 40. Three fairly conservative runs later, the Bears were able to kick a 48-yard field goal to win the game, which Cairo Santos did for them to get to 7-3.

Tough way to lose for the Vikings. I guess McCarthy missed that LOAT course at Michigan on how to will your opponent to miss the clutch field goal. Or they just don’t offer that in 2025 like they used to.

Packers at Giants: Winston Special

I had to wait until the final 40 seconds before the J&J Pick Parade (J.J. McCarthy and Jameis Winston to both throw interceptions) hit this Sunday. Winston almost had another upset in his first start for the Giants as the Packers have just struggled all year despite large spreads. Jordan Love was out of the lineup momentarily in this one for an injury but returned and did some positive things, including a game-winning drive without Josh Jacobs.

Then the defense finally put it away with a pick of Winston with 36 seconds left. Since the Giants, in their first game with interim coach Mike Kafka, had all three timeouts, they actually generated another drive with just 10 seconds left. That too ended with a Winston turnover on a Micah Parsons strip-sack, fittingly.

Big save by the Packers, who lost to Tommy DeVito and the Giants two years ago. Not happening to Jameis this year.

Texans at Titans: Some Modest Improvement

Maybe my best pick this week was for the Titans (+5.5) to cover and still lose to Houston. It was a 6-0 game going into the fourth quarter the last time they met before short fields helped Houston blow it open 26-0. Throw in a short week, interim coach, and you’d hope Tennessee would clean some things up and play better.

That happened, and props to Cam Ward for leading a 95-yard game-tying touchdown drive late. But he learned the hard way about the help you get from the new kickoff rules (starting at your 35 from a touchback) and being let down by your defense, which let Davis Mills convert a 3rd-and-16 to Nico Collins to eventually get a 35-yard field goal with no time left in a 16-13 final.

Commanders vs. Dolphins: Thank You, Mike McDaniel

The NFL went to Madrid, Spain and gave the audience three goal-line stands, and I especially liked the one where the Commanders ran the ball with three different backs on three plays in a row and none could score before Marcus Mariota missed the fourth-down throw.

But I want to thank Mike McDaniel for I believe becoming the first coach in this new overtime system to win the coin toss and elect to go on defense first. I think that’s the ideal strategy, and it’s even stronger in a 13-13 game where you’re facing Marcus Mariota. You’re not afraid of him leading a long touchdown drive.

Sure enough, he was picked on the first play and that set up the Dolphins for an easy game-winning drive that was just 3 handoffs for 22 yards before a 29-yard field goal to win in 16-13.

Next week: Thursday night isn’t bad (Bills-Texans) if we get C.J. Stroud (concussion) back for it. On Sunday, the Colts’ No. 1 offense and Lou Anarumo-led offense can drop the Chiefs to 5-6 and possibly a deathblow to their playoff chances this year in a big one. Doesn’t sound promising for Aaron Rodgers to face the Bears one more time in Chicago in a game both teams need. Bucs at Rams isn’t bad for SNF but McVay usually does well against that team. Monday night is Carolina at 49ers, a game that is surprisingly not a joke on paper but not overly exciting either.

2025 NFL Stat Oddity: Week 6

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

I don’t think Week 6 changes the 2025 NFL narrative too much, though we’ll see what the injury news is on Puka Nacua. But the 49ers are so banged up that it may not matter as much as the Seahawks and Rams won’t meet until November 16.

The Chiefs are still the class of the AFC West. The Jets and Dolphins still suck. The Cowboys still can’t play defense. The AFC North, save for Pittsburgh, still can’t win. The Colts are still scoring efficiently as Daniel Jones, Baker Mayfield, and Sam Darnold keep slinging it. The Packers still can’t cover the spread against Joe Flacco.

The change may be coming in the NFC East as the Eagles just look offensively lost, which may not come as a surprise when you see how Spencer Rattler is competing against superior teams in Kellen Moore’s offense.

Coaching matters. Just ask UCLA and Penn State.

After last week’s brutal picks had me riding a 4-11 ML streak going into yesterday, I rebounded nicely with 11-1 SU and 7-4 ATS on Sunday. There were only seven games with a comeback opportunity with a good MNF doubleheader still to come.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Lions at Chiefs: Look Who’s Still the Team to Beat

Ever since the second half of Week 3 against the Giants, the Chiefs have played offense at an elite level that you can put up there with anything they did in 2018-24. If teams wanted to humble this team, they needed to do it now when Rashee Rice was suspended these first six games.

Instead, you’re getting MVP-caliber play from Mahomes, who trusts his offensive line and receivers again, and the defense is feeding off of that as the Chiefs are winning games by two touchdowns or more this year instead of relying on one-score grinds.

Of course, the Chiefs can’t play a game in prime time without people wanting to turn it into an officiating controversy. The most notable thing about the officiating in Sunday night’s game was the lack of it.

After 13 penalties for 109 yards in Jacksonville, the Chiefs had zero accepted penalties in this game. Zero. You might say that sounds fishy, but after such an undisciplined performance on Monday, it’s safe to say they made it a point of emphasis in a very important game to not fall to 2-4.

There have also been 91 instances since 1970 of an NFL team having 0 penalties, so while it is very uncommon, it’s not unprecedented. The Lions only had four penalties in the game, so the refs were letting them play for the most part.

In fact, it’s easy to recall all 4 accepted penalties in the game on Detroit:

  • The first was the illegal motion on Jared Goff’s touchdown reception on the opening drive. The dynamics of how that was called appeared a little off, but the play wasn’t officially reviewed, and they got it right.
  • That led to a delay of game as the Lions were frustrated having to settle for a field goal.
  • The third penalty was DPI after Rock Ya-Sin grabbed Travis Kelce on the collar on a big 3rd-and-10 in the second quarter.
  • The fourth penalty was roughing the passer on Aidan Hutchinson for a clear late hit.

Early on, the Lions were hurting themselves with mistakes like the Goff illegal motion, Amon-Ra St. Brown’s drop, and a bad drive to end the half. But in the second half, the defense was legitimately stopping the No. 1 scoring offense, containing the runs that worked early, and limiting YAC for St. Brown and company. Detroit’s only score of the half was a brilliant catch by Sam LaPorta for a touchdown.

Meanwhile, the Chiefs are going to be hard to beat if they’re scoring 30 points on 7 drives like they did here. Andy Reid seemed to wise up on some 4th-down punts this year by going for it a few times against an elite scoring machine like Detroit, which helped.

Mahomes played another very sharp game, and while the Lions were down multiple corners, he largely attacked their linebackers in coverage underneath. Tyquan Thonrton, their new deep threat, didn’t even have a target as the Chiefs mostly avoided playing 3-4 WR sets, keeping Detroit in base defense. That’s a nice little wrinkle you wouldn’t expect with the Lions down corners.

The Chiefs were also without left tackle Justin Simmons, who didn’t make the trip for personal reasons. But they paid Jaylon Moore good money to ride the bench, so he stepped in admirably at left tackle. Only glaring mistake was a late sack he gave up, but the game was in hand by then.

I think Goff faded after a good start, and Dan Campbell made one of his dumbest coaching calls ever on the final drive. Yes, they needed 2 touchdowns with an onside kick recovery, so it was pure miracle territory. But how do you get a 2nd-and-1 with 2:14 left and throw three incomplete passes? I can see doing it once, but that close to the 2-minute warning where you know the clock will stop, just run the god damn ball, get your yard, and start with a new set of downs with 2:00 left. That was coaching malpractice on Campbell’s part.

And yes, I’m extra pissed since I lost out on $270 as a parlay needed just 5 more yards from St. Brown. Just horrible execution from Detroit on that last drive.

But the Chiefs get to 3-3 without Rice and after facing the toughest part of their schedule. They still have a lot of playoff-caliber opponents left on the schedule, but the first six games were always the toughest with the Chargers, Eagles, Ravens, Lions, and no Rice for any of them.

If you look around the league at the way no one is really standing out – Broncos and Chargers barely squeaked by the awful Jets and Dolphins – in either conference, then there’s no reason not to think the Chiefs are still the team to beat in January.

If the defense can step up and hold a team like Detroit to 17 points with the offense playing this efficiently even before Rice is back, then good luck to the rest of the league from stopping another Super Bowl berth.

Only downside is Harrison Butker continues to suck, and the Chiefs still haven’t won a one-score game this season. But that’ll come eventually.

The Chiefs are still the Chiefs.

49ers at Buccaneers: Infirmary Bowl

I know there’s no such thing as a fully-healthy team in the NFL in Week 6, but JFC, these teams could have at least a little better injury luck than this. The Buccaneers didn’t have their top two wideouts (Mike Evans and Chris Godwin), starting running back (Bucky Irving), and rookie sensation Emeka Egbuka left the game early with a hamstring injury.

The 49ers were still without Brock Purdy, Brandon Aiyuk, Ricky Pearsall, George Kittle, and Nick Bosa. They lost All-Pro linebacker Fred Warner for the season in this game with a dislocated ankle, which his terrible to see as I was just saying how impressive he was on the ManningCast. Hate to see a defense that’s now without its two best players.

In the end, the Bucs handled their injuries better as they have Baker Mayfield while the 49ers have Mac Jones. Sure, Jones has played better this year under Kyle Shanahan even without a full arsenal of weapons. But his first pass of the day should have been a pick-six if the defender could ever get up instead of falling over three times. That led to a 12-yard touchdown drive for the Bucs, who didn’t trail in the final 35 minutes.

Tampa also has the deepest receiving room in the NFL. I never even heard of Kameron Johnson, who had one target in his career before Sunday and no catches in the NFL, but there he was catching a 34-yard touchdown. Then after Baker Mayfield made one of his classic scrambles to convert a 3rd-and-14, a 7th-round rookie named Tez Johnson made a great fingertips catch for a 45-yard touchdown to give the Bucs a 27-19 lead going into the fourth quarter.

These teams were both 4-1 in close games, and this one would also go to the fourth quarter with a one-score deficit. It just didn’t end as dramatically because the 49ers couldn’t come close to scoring the game-tying touchdown. Lavonte David took down Jones on a big 3rd-and-11 sack.

Then after a stopped QB sneak and false start, Jones was picked on a 4th-and-5 with 5:43 left. The Bucs turned that into a 45-yard field goal after Chase McLaughlin redeemed himself for an earlier miss in the quarter. Down 30-19, the 49ers went 4-and-out to end this one.

Interesting to see where these teams go from here. It feels like the injuries are piling up for the 49ers and they won’t be able to recover for a Super Bowl run. But it also feels like Tampa has used up a lot of its late-game magic already for one season and will need to play better once it could ever get its wide receivers back healthy.

But the injuries have been a hell of a thing to watch with these teams.

Rams at Ravens: At What Point Do You Panic?

If I was a fan of the Baltimore Ravens (1-5), I think this game would have pissed me off more than the last few when they got their asses handed to them. They teased us on Sunday that they could win this game against the Rams, who again were underachieving in a game.

The defense actually showed up for Baltimore this week. Sure, it helps when Puka Nacua gets injured and the Rams can’t make simple field goals, but they held them to 3.2 YPC and Stafford only passed for 181 yards with an early strip-sack fumble.

They got 122 rushing yards from Derrick Henry, who was more of the focal point as he needed to be in Lamar Jackson’s absence. But Zay Flowers was a double agent as many of his targets and touches led to disasters for the Ravens, including a pick, an incomplete 4th-and-3 pass, and two fumbles.

This game was lost in that 7:00 middle between the halves. The Tush Push with Mark Andrews didn’t work twice, so the Ravens ran Henry on 4th-and-goal at the 1 and were stuffed, keeping the score tied at 3. Then after the Rams got a touchdown, Flowers fumbled a completion, setting up the Rams for a 21-yard touchdown drive and 17-3 lead. No more points were scored in the final 25 minutes, which is hard to believe.

Then on a first down nearing the red zone, the Ravens had another fumble that gets charged to Cooper Rush, but it was really on Flowers again for not securing the ball that was meant to be his run.

It was curious timing, but the Ravens benched Rush on the next drive for Tyler Huntley, who has experience in this system and more mobility to do more Lamar-like things. Granted, you could argue Rush never should have been in Baltimore as he doesn’t fit their normal offense like Huntley or other backups they’ve had can. So, that was always a weird choice to go with him as Lamar’s main backup.

Just as it was weird for Huntley to take over when he did after Flowers screwed up again. But it still didn’t result in any more points. Two long drives from Huntley just ended in the Ravens turning it over on downs in their latest loss.

Few teams have ever needed a bye week more than Baltimore, and Jackson should be back. They finally have fallen behind the Steelers for the AFC North odds, but it’s probably closer than you think. Sure, they have two head-to-head meetings left, but the Ravens haven’t swept Pittsburgh since 2019, and they have been swept by the Steelers multiple times since.

It’s not looking good for Baltimore fans as this team is finding ways to screw up games long before January this year.

Seahawks at Jaguars: When Two Receivers Don’t Beat One

I picked Seattle (-1.5) to win this game on the road because I thought the Jaguars would be a bit flat after Monday night’s emotional win over Kansas City, and that would negate the early body clock/travel aspect for the Seahawks. I also just think Sam Darnold is playing better football than Trevor Lawrence, and Mike Macdonald’s defensive system is more sustainable than the Jaguars relying on takeaways.

That basically played out here, but one thing I got wrong so far about these teams this year is their wide receiver play. I thought with Liam Coen coming to Jacksonville, he could get Lawrence playing well with his wide receiver duo of Brian Thomas Jr. and Travis Hunter. Well, Thomas only scored his first touchdown catch on Sunday, and Hunter had 15 yards on 4 catches.

Meanwhile, I thought Jaxon Smith-Njigba was a possession receiver, someone who would average about 11 YPC and be a downgrade for Darnold as his WR1 after he played with Justin Jefferson last year in Minnesota, or how he could have had DK Metcalf instead in this role. But JSN has been incredible as a one-man show at times as he had 162 yards in this game and a touchdown.

However, in such a low-scoring game (20-12), the Jaguars certainly had their chances. But Thomas had a huge drop on third down with 9:17 left when the Jaguars trailed 20-12. The Jaguars never really got a better look at a score than that play after their last two drives failed and ended in punts.

After Lawrence’s 7th sack brought up 4th-and-18 at their own 28, they had no choice but to punt in an 8-point game with 3:00 left. But one deep ball from Darnold to Barner for 61 yards flipped field position and basically should have ended the game as you knew Seattle could take an 11-point lead. They eventually did, but a defensive holding penalty on the field goal (rarely see that) ended the game as the Seahawks just ran the clock out with the automatic first down.

Good win for the Seahawks while the Jaguars (4-2) are still a work in progress under Coen.

Chargers at Dolphins: Mike McDaniel About to Do ALL the Cocaine

The Miami defense is a great way for a struggling offense like the Chargers to get on track. You just didn’t expect the LA defense to blow a 26-13 lead in the fourth quarter, because that’s supposed to be the silliness that Jim Harbaugh eliminates for the Chargers.

But it happened after Tua found Darren Waller wide open for a 7-yard touchdown to take a 27-26 lead with 0:46 left. Fortunately, the Chargers had a good kick return and timeout to answer it, and Justin Herbert made a contender for the play of the year to Ladd McConkey, who did his part with the YAC after Herbert’s great display of strength to avoid the sack that would have been crippling:

That made the field goal possible, and Cameron Dicker made it from 33 yards out for the 29-27 win. That’s the third blown lead for the Dolphins this season.

Probably too early to call it a season saver for the Chargers (4-2), but they have some tough games coming up with the Colts and Vikings (maybe/maybe not), so they couldn’t afford to lose a third straight to a team like the Dolphins.

Cardinals at Colts: QB Controversy in Arizona?

Maybe being back in Indy with that awful sunshine spotting the field helped him, but Jacoby Brissett seemed pretty comfortable for a guy making his first start with Arizona for an injured Kyler Murray. Brissett threw for 320 yards, 2 touchdowns, and the Cardinals had a 27-24 lead in the fourth quarter.

That’s the kind of road game you almost never see Murray have, especially post-ACL. But it wasn’t enough as the Colts still scored enough in the end behind Daniel Jones and Jonathan Taylor. The Colts did have a few more stops than usual this week, but they still scored on their first three second-half possessions, including Taylor’s game-winning touchdown run with 4:32 left.

One thing about Brissett is he was always dreadful at game-winning drives (7-23, .233), and this one didn’t work either. It did get to the Indy 9, but the defense stopped Brissett on three straight plays.

A solid win for the Colts. You can’t compare beating the Cardinals to facing the pressure of a Buffalo or Kansas City in January, which Jones will have to step up to if he wants to get to the Super Bowl. But every win like this helps build some confidence that they can execute in those situations.

Browns at Steelers: Same Old Steelers (Or Not?)

Same Old Steelers could refer to beating Cleveland at home in the regular season as they have every year since 2003. It could also refer to beating up on a random rookie quarterback as they sacked Dillon Gabriel six times and held him to 7.6 yards per completion and 9 points.

But maybe the real test of Same Old Steelers is to see if they follow this game up with a stinker in Cincinnati this Thursday night when they have a chance to open up a 5-1 record in this AFC North race that has gotten incredibly one-sided these last two weeks. Since Pittsburgh’s bye last week, the rest of the AFC North is 0-6.

As for this game, I think Aaron Rodgers missed a few throws you’d expect him to make to big, open targets while still throwing an incredible touchdown to Heyward. The big number for Rodgers was “0” in the sacks department as Myles Garrett and company came up empty while the Steelers feasted on the rookie. There’s your main difference in this game.

Bengals at Packers: I Guess Green Bay Can’t Beat Joe Flacco AND the Spread This Year

The rest of the 2025 NFL season should just be Joe Flacco hopping from team to team to start against the Green Bay Packers. See if they can ever make a double-digit lead hold up against him.

Flacco was about as ineffective early as you’d expect from someone who was traded to the team on Tuesday and hasn’t played for this staff before. But the Packers still couldn’t blow the game wide open because of a bad Jordan Love interception on the opening drive. Meanwhile, Flacco threw 45 passes with zero picks and only one sack behind that line. I’m shocked at that.

The Bengals were also in this game in the second half. They scored on three straight possessions, and it would have been four if not for a missed 56-yard field goal in the 27-18 final. But they put the pressure on Green Bay to score three times in a row too to maintain that two-possession lead.

So, I’d say good on Flacco to make the team competitive and not sink the Bengals the way Browning did last week. Do I think it’s a season-saving move? No, I still don’t. But maybe we are having too high expectations on the Packers after those first two weeks. The defense isn’t that otherworldly if they can’t do better than this against Flacco on a short week to learn his new offense.

Patriots at Saints: Making It Look Big Easy

Not much to say here other than I respect the job Kellen Moore is doing with the Saints for another competitive effort where they came up a little short against a better team. Drake Maye had another efficient game, and some of his best throws were wiped out by penalties too.

But maybe the Patriots are back when they’re creating fumbles at midfield in one-score games in the fourth quarter. This time it was TE Juwan Johnson coughing up the ball on a potential go-ahead drive.

Cowboys at Panthers: Rico Dowdle Revenge Game Indeed

I never had any strong opinions about whether the Cowboys should have kept RB Rico Dowdle for 2025. He did fine last year in a lost cause season for Dallas. He’s been better than post-injury Javonte Williams the last few years. But on Sunday, he sure made his point in one of the ultimate revenge games as Dowdle totaled 239 yards from scrimmage and scored a long touchdown catch to help the Panthers upset Dallas 30-27.

Dak Prescott played a great game with zero help from the run (17 carries for 32 yards). But his last two drives did not deliver, and when you’re trying to win some games and get in the MVP race, you have to do better than misfiring in the red zone multiple times and then throwing screens to go backwards. Seriously, Dak went 3-of-3 for minus-8 yards on his last possession – three failed completions.

But the defense must do better than letting the Panthers take off the final 6:07 on the clock to kick a game-winning field goal. They had a chance to go three-and-out right away on defense, but the Cowboys were penalized for defensive pass interference to extend the drive. Hunter Renfrow had a clutch catch on 4th-and-4, a ballsy call by Dave Canales to go for it with 2:31 left.

That put the Cowboys in a bind, and the Panthers ran the clock down to kick a 33-yard field goal. I’m still not sure if the Panthers (3-3) are any good since I’m not even sure they’ve played a team yet that is going to the playoffs this season. But I do know that Dallas defense is terrible, and that’s the predicament they put themselves in with the Parsons trade.

But what a game and moment for Dowdle. This is why you don’t necessarily need to pay someone like Chuba Hubbard when backs come and go all the time. At least, they do for most teams. The Cowboys haven’t done the best job replacing Tony Pollard.

Titans at Raiders: Trying to Set a Strip-Sack Record

I swear every time RedZone cut to this game some quarterback was getting strip-sacked or being reviewed for a strip-sack. In the end, Cam Ward fumbled twice to go with a pick. I thought Geno Smith would be sharper than this, but maybe Brock Bowers means more to this passing game than expected.

One of those Ward strip-sacks set up a 2-yard touchdown drive for the Raiders, so this was easy street for Vegas to get back in the win column. The Titans are quite arguably worse this season than last year with Will Levis.

Jets vs. Broncos: London Snooze

It was almost 8:00 AM ET on Sunday when I was still awake, trying to fall asleep. So, when my alarm went off at 11:05 and I saw the halftime score of this shit game in London, I hit the snooze for another 45 minutes. Caught most of the fourth quarter and couldn’t believe that Sean Payton was about to blow a game to this team after a safety provided a little 11-10 edge for the Jets.

But sure enough, that pass rush saved the day for Denver after the offense managed a go-ahead field goal drive and 13-11 lead. More accurately, Justin Fields’ terrible ability to get rid of the ball in a timely manner did him in as he never got the passing game going, and he took 9 sacks. I don’ t think the last 3 were necessarily his fault as they engulfed him quickly, but he never had an answer for how to attack a defense with talent at each level.

The Jets finished with -10 net passing yards, which is a great example of why you have to account for sack yardage. Do you know how stupid it would sound to say Fields accounted for 92% of his team’s yards in this game if we just ignored the sacks were charged to him?

Nine sacks, nine completions, and 2-15 on third down. Pathetic output as the Jets were held to 82 total yards. Fields already had that game against Buffalo where he had 3 completions while playing into the fourth quarter. This was actually worse.

I don’t know how you can continue playing him at quarterback if you’re Aaron Glenn, who did technically blow his third fourth-quarter lead in six games this season. The only good news is the Jets finally got a takeaway on the third play of the game, a Troy Franklin fumble recovery.

However, that just further shows how pathetic Fields was. Of the 11 points scored by the Jets, 2 were on a safety, 3 were on a 3-yard drive set up by the fumble, and 3 more were set up on a 1-yard drive after a 72-yard kick return. Even their only legitimate scoring drive started at their own 43 after a good kick return to start the second half.

Let’s stop pretending Fields can do this job. Maybe if he sits for years like Geno Smith, he can make it somewhere else down the road, but it’s not happening with the Jets.

Next week: Steelers-Bengals on TNF sounds like a classic upset spot for Tomlin vs. Flacco. Rams-Jaguars is the best Sunday morning international game yet. Maybe I’ll get up a little earlier for that. Eagles-Vikings could be interesting as I’d actually like to see it be a Carson Wentz Revenge Game. Not sure we’ll get that though. Giants-Denver is suddenly more interesting with the run-based offense the Giants have now with their rookies.

Colts-Chargers sounds fun. Commanders-Cowboys could be a shootout. Falcons-49ers is a bold choice for SNF. But MNF is really where it’s at with Lions-Bucs and Seahawks-Texans, and they’re played in different windows to boot, which is nice. I wish tonight was set up that way.

NFL 2025 Week 6 Predictions: “Who’s Even a Real Favorite Anymore?” Edition

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

Now into Week 6 of the 2025 NFL season, I’m not sure Jaguars-Seahawks isn’t any less of a Super Bowl LX preview than Rams-Ravens or Lions-Chiefs on Sunday night could be. If you think you know where this is all headed this season, good luck to you, because I think this season is headed for that 2002 or 2021 type of randomness where all teams struggle to win more than 12 games. Maybe 13-4 at best given the 17th game.

Just look at what’s been happening in prime time the last week. Sure, we can chalk some of Rams-49ers and Eagles-Giants up to division familiarity. But the way the Chiefs blew that game in Jacksonville, or the Bills playing one of their worst games in years against the Patriots?

All I know is I’ve never felt less confident in the 2025 Eagles, a team I didn’t pick for the Super Bowl in February, to get back there in the NFC bracket. It will apparently forever piss me off that the 2024 Eagles won the NFC-CG and SB by such large margins as this team has rarely been able to dominate teams going back to 2023. Remember, they almost lost last year to the Browns, Jaguars, and Panthers at home. They half-assed their way to 4-0 this year before losing the last two weeks.

It’s a tough league, but this is looking like one of those seasons where you just can’t trust anybody. It wouldn’t shock me one bit if the Jets (+7) win their first game against Denver, if the Patriots flop in New Orleans, and if the Rams blow another game they should win in Baltimore.

That’s where things are in 2025.

This Week’s Articles

2025 NFL Quarterback Rankings Week 6: The Mayfield-Darnold Passing Clinic and Every Great AFC Quarterback’s Team Takes a Loss
Scott’s Seven NFL Picks: Week 6

Click the Week 6 picks above for a MNF parlay, and a detailed preview on Chiefs vs. Lions SNF.

NFL Week 6 Predictions

Another Thursday night stunner in the books. I’m 4-11 SU going back to last week. Need to get on track.

Yeah, I hedged on spread vs. ML for the Jets, Ravens, Bengals, and Bears.

Steelers losing at home to a rookie QB wouldn’t shock me.

I like the Chargers but the OT situation is getting dicey.

Can Dallas lose in Carolina? Absolutely, but I just don’t think the Panthers are any good.

I think Geno Smith bounces back with a good game and win for the Raiders. He better, or they might need to switch to Kenny Pickett.

My gut on the Chiefs was if they won in Jacksonville, I was picking Detroit in this game. But since they lost that one, I think they win this one even if it’s supposed to be a harder opponent. The Lions have a lot of injuries in the secondary and I think the Chiefs can at least contain the running game enough and not give Goff short fields all night like we’ve seen the Ohio teams hand Detroit the last two weeks.

2024 NFL Stat Oddity: Divisional Round

~ Scott ~ 1 Comment

After a lackluster wild card round, the NFL’s divisional round delivered with the Chiefs inching closer to the three-peat, the Commanders pulling off an all-time upset in Detroit, a quality snow game in Philadelphia, and the most Baltimore ending possible in Buffalo.

I couldn’t personally get a parlay to hit, but at least my tight ends parlay (+539) on 365Scores was correct, and I had some other good picks like Travis Kelce having another 70-yard game in the postseason, Amon-Ra St. Brown going over 90 yards, and Terry McLaurin scoring a touchdown.

At least I was right that Ravens-Bills would not be a great quarterback duel, and it would come down to those things like fumble recoveries and avoiding big drops, which the Ravens of course failed to do again.

I’ll try to limit officiating talk here because I’d prefer to do something more in depth on that later this week. Plus, it’s just really annoying to harp on that for every game when we know the officiating is bad. None of these games were directly decided by the refs.

Save that kind of referee talk for Championship Sunday from the 2018 season (IYKYK)

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Ravens at Bills: Baltimore Blunders Strike Again

I’ll be curious to watch the season finale of Hard Knocks this week and see how John Harbaugh reacts to the latest playoff loss for his Ravens. This one was different, and yet at the same time, it was very much on brand for Baltimore throughout his tenure. I’m not sure any other recent franchise has a long list of blunders like this in close playoff losses:

https://twitter.com/ScottKacsmar/status/1881204200320716801

Some of those games weren’t that close (2009 Colts, 2019 Titans), but many were, and many of these plays can probably be visualized in your head by their brief mention if you’ve followed the NFL closely for years.

I’ve pounded the table for the “Same Old Steelers, let’s fire Mike Tomlin” crusade for years now in Pittsburgh, which also loses playoff games in excruciatingly similar ways year after year. But while Harbaugh can say the same of his team, I simply don’t see it the same way that he’s got to go if they’re ever going to change.

At some point, the play is out of the coach’s hands, and players have to make the plays. Catch the ball, protect the ball, make the kick. Hold onto the fucking ball, as Lamar Jackson pointed out after the game, probably the most frustrating loss of his career after he had his best season in 2024.

https://twitter.com/big_business_/status/1881180079071601140

https://twitter.com/big_business_/status/1881180079071601140

I can already see the legacy talks for Lamar won’t be kind after this game even though it was clearly his best performance in a playoff loss. If he does indeed have a third MVP win this year, good luck ever getting nominated for a fourth. People are not going to take his regular seasons seriously until he puts together a great playoff run.

Maybe that’s fair too. But what’s not fair is to lump this 27-25 loss in Buffalo in with the past Baltimore playoff losses for Lamar.

Remember that stat about how he had his game with the fewest points that season in the playoffs all four times he’s gone? He broke that streak by putting up 25 in this game (lowest game was 16 points in Pittsburgh). Unfortunately, the Ravens were 13-0 when they scored 28+ this year and 0-6 when they didn’t. They needed 28+ again to win this game too and came up a little short.

But this game was still different. Usually, Jackson loses a low-scoring game and wire-to-wire in the playoffs. This time, he led an opening touchdown drive, making some big plays on third downs and making it look easy. But Buffalo was able to answer with its own opening drive touchdown to tie it at 7.

Jackson’s next pass was intercepted on either a poor read or a ball that just got away from him. Uh-oh, here comes the narrative. He can’t handle the playoffs and this was the coldest game of his career. But the Bills punted from there, so it didn’t really harm things.

The next drive was the significant one with the Ravens driving into Buffalo territory in a 7-7 game. It always hurts when you compound mistakes in the playoffs, and the Ravens did that here. Mark Andrews dropped a pass that should have set up a 2nd-and-short, then a bad snap was high to Jackson, he tried to make too much happen on the play instead of settling for a sack and third-and-long, and he fumbled it. The Bills returned it to the Baltimore 24 and set themselves up for another one of those short touchdown drives with Josh Allen scoring from 1 yard out to go up 14-7.

Just like that, Lamar had two quick turnovers, something he hadn’t done all regular season, and the playoff choke narrative was writing itself nicely. But there was a drop and bad snap that directly preceded that mistake. He wasn’t alone there.

We used to show grace to people who made up for their mistakes, but that seems to have gone out the window in today’s society. If you look at how Jackson finished the game from there, he played great and did his job. Throw in an opening-drive touchdown, and it’s really those two plays with the turnovers that were his biggest flaws on the night.

In the past, Lamar would have just crumbled from there. This time, he made plays and strung together drives, but they still didn’t all result in touchdowns because the running game had some letdowns. I’m not sure why they didn’t pound Henry more when they had 1st-and-goal at the 2. They were stuffed, then tried throwing twice before settling for a field goal and 14-10 deficit.

Buffalo used most of the final 3:43 in the half to score a touchdown, but the drive was not without controversy. On a 3rd-and-5, Allen threw incomplete for rookie Keon Coleman, who drew a defensive pass interference flag against former Bill Tre’Davious White. The call was bullshit. That’s either OPI or preferably no flag at all since they were both engaged with each other. Just a terrible call that led to the Bills scoring another 4-yard touchdown run by Allen to take a 21-10 lead into the half.

https://twitter.com/GeneSteratore/status/1881143728703979919

https://twitter.com/GeneSteratore/status/1881143728703979919

Again, this is the spot where you expect Lamar to crumble, but it did not happen this time. It helped that the Bills punted twice in the third quarter after a couple of ineffective drives. Frankly, I have no idea what the plan was for Buffalo’s passing game. They ran a chickenshit, dink-and-dunk style passing game where Allen got the ball out the fastest he has all season, but it only kind of worked because the running game was solid with America getting a chance to see how impressive this line and trio of backs has been.

But it took Allen a long time to even break 100 passing yards, and he only finished the game with 127 passing yards and 20 rushing yards on a quiet night.

Once Henry broke through with a touchdown run on his best drive of the night by far (he finished with 84 rushing yards), the Ravens went for two. I always say they’re terrible at these, and they didn’t prove me wrong as they love throwing on them. Jackson’s pass was incomplete and the Ravens still trailed 21-19. I didn’t think it was too early to go for it there.

The Bills settled for a 51-yard field goal to make it 24-19. This was looking a lot like their playoff game in this round last year against the Chiefs with Allen mixing a good running game and the dink and dunk to have a fourth-quarter lead at home. But Jackson had his shot to go up 27-24, the same score the Chiefs won that game by last year.

It was going well until Andrews decided to try getting YAC at midfield, only for him to have the ball punched out on a huge fumble. Just the second lost fumble of his career too. He usually doesn’t try to move like that in the open field, and it was a big turning point.

The Bills turned that into points but not before a huge decision on 4th-and-2 at the Baltimore 2 with 3:31 left:

  • Do you try to go for the touchdown and 31-19 lead, putting it basically out of reach with a 2-touchdown lead and the Ravens down to one timeout?
  • Do you go for the short field goal and take a 27-19 lead, feeling comfortable that the Ravens will blow another 2PC?
  • Do you risk not getting it, and leaving yourself open to the Ravens driving for the go-ahead touchdown?

In the end, I think Sean McDermott made the right call of a field goal just because of how sure I am about Baltimore screwing up those 2PC plays. With Henry on the sideline, without Zay Flowers all game, Jackson faced his legacy drive.

I thought he did a good job with it, and maybe scoring so quickly (1:33 left) was an issue as Buffalo would have plenty of time to go get the winning score. But you’re going to take the score when it’s open, and Jackson found Isaiah Likely for the 24-yard touchdown.

But what do they do on the 2-point conversion? They’re now 2-for-9 on these in the fourth quarter when trailing with Lamar at quarterback. I even have a tweet from 2021 talking about how they go to Mark Andrews way too much in these situations and don’t connect.

https://twitter.com/ScottKacsmar/status/1473398508220825600

Sure enough, it happened again. I even screamed “Andrews!” at the TV as I saw he was open on the right side, and the pass was thrown to him again. I thought the pass was good enough and should have been caught by a Pro Bowler, but he just flat out dropped it, solidifying his spot as the biggest choker at his position as he still hasn’t scored a touchdown in the postseason. Couldn’t even catch this game-tying play right in his hands.

https://twitter.com/SharpFootball/status/1881168053033160798

That was it. The Bills recovered the onside kick and ran out the clock for a 27-25 win. The Ravens couldn’t overcome their minus-3 turnover margin on the road even though the tie was right there. Like Buffalo last year against Kansas City, it may have just ended in a 30-27 loss to a last second field goal, but you never know.

And you’ll never know when you make mistakes like that drop. Andrews should definitely get the brunt of the blame with his late-game mistakes. There’s just no margin for error left when you do that so late in the game to kill multiple drives.

The Bills had a 34-yard pass play on their third snap from scrimmage, then never had a play gain more than 17 yards the rest of the night. They sat back and pounced on Baltimore’s mistakes, getting the fortunate fumble and great field position from Lamar’s fumble on a bad snap, getting the bogus DPI call before halftime for an additional 4 points, and adding the insurance field goal after Andrews’ fumble that they forced with the punch-out. That was enough for the win this time.

The Ravens were kind of built to self-destruct at some point, but it’s still stunning to see that Jackson and Andrews would make these mistakes again in the biggest game of the year. It was Jackson early and Andrews late.

But the other stat that caught my attention, and maybe this is the way to bring it full circle and lay some responsibility on Harbaugh, is the lack of takeaways by the Ravens’ defense in the postseason.

Remember last year when Baltimore had the defensive triple crown? No. 1 in points allowed, sacks, and takeaways? Well, that great defense didn’t force a single takeaway in either playoff game against the Texans or Chiefs. That doesn’t mean they didn’t play well enough to win both games, but they didn’t get the takeaways that make it easier to do so like Buffalo’s been getting all year. The Bills are somehow now +16 in fumble recoveries and +27 in turnover margin this year – absurd numbers. They just set the modern NFL record with 21 straight games without losing the turnover battle.

https://twitter.com/ScottKacsmar/status/1881273588407550258

Meanwhile, the Ravens have tied the NFL record by going four straight playoff games without a takeaway. Their last came in the 2022 AFC wild card in Cincinnati, the game started by Tyler Huntley for an injured Lamar, who hasn’t seen a takeaway in a playoff game since 2020 in Tennessee. That’s five straight playoff starts for Lamar where his defense didn’t get a turnover, which would be the longest streak in NFL history.

It’s still the ultimate team game. Baltimore’s lack of playoff success in the Jackson era has never been about only him, but he has been the central figure as the quarterback who has played well below his standards in those games.

But this game was something different. He had his mistakes, but so do many quarterbacks in big playoff games, including everyone from Joe Montana to Tom Brady to Patrick Mahomes. I don’t remember when perfection was ever the requirement to win these games.

But when your star tight end turns into whatever you want to call Andrews’ performance, and your defense doesn’t get any takeaways or create a real swing of momentum, then you’re left with coming up short like this.

I can understand why Jackson sounded extra frustrated in the post-game, and even if he was truly talking about his own turnovers, I can forgive him if he had Andrews first in mind after everything that happened this season from Likely’s toe on opening night to Kyle Hamilton’s dropped interception in Cleveland to Justin Tucker’s awful game against the Eagles to now this loss in Buffalo.

At least we know damn well that the Ravens would have choked on the 2PC in Kansas City if they went for it opening night. I said it then. But if I knew in 2021 that they were throwing too many passes in general and way too many to Andrews in these clutch 2PC moments, why don’t they know that in 2025?

Jackson is making progress in the playoffs with three pretty solid games in his last four tries. His QBR (85.8) was higher in this game than Allen’s (71.1), and yes, he even beat him in the precious EPA stat.

But is Andrews making progress in big games? No. Is the defense coming up with the kind of clutch takeaways that drove teams like the Commanders, Eagles, and Bills to wins this weekend? Nope.

At least the Ravens didn’t panic after going down 21-10 this time, but their progress in the playoffs is slow moving. Bad enough to change coaches? I’m not sure. I just know someone is always screwing up in Baltimore save for 2012, and even that year was saved by Rahim Moore taking the worst angle possible on the touchdown to Jacoby Jones (RIP) in Denver.

Had that gone like every other Baltimore postseason, I don’t think I’d be talking about Harbaugh coaching this team right now. He’d have been let go many years ago.

But the Ravens have just completed one of the most dominant 7-year runs (2018-24) in NFL history without a single Super Bowl appearance to show for it. Even the 1979 Rams got there with Vince Ferragamo at quarterback. The closest thing to Baltimore might be Buffalo if that team loses next week too. Otherwise, it’s probably the 1999-2005 Colts as the closest comparison.

That team won the Super Bowl in 2006 after people wrote them off when they followed a 9-0 start with a 3-4 finish. They still had their albatross receiver (Marvin Harrison) weighing the offense down in the postseason, but they still produced enough points and the defense finally started producing turnovers.

Maybe Baltimore can do that in 2025, but it’s tough to keep coming back after finishing short like this. The competition isn’t going away either. It’s the same demons to slay, but Baltimore might have to look in house and fix some of their own demons first. Whether that means moving forward with Likely as TE1, a different coach, or trying to become more of a pass-first offense, they need to shake things up.

And no matter what you do, hold onto the fucking ball.

Commanders at Lions: Shock and Awe

I believed in Jayden Daniels enough to cover the spread and give Detroit a battle, but I sure as hell didn’t expect a 45-31 win to end Detroit’s dream season. He had that kind of “road virtuoso” performance that is so rare in the playoffs for a considerable underdog, and he did it as a rookie – granted, the best rookie QB to ever do it.

But for as shocking as the game was, it kind of made sense too. I just wrote the other day that Detroit’s fatal flaws are Jared Goff going goofy with turnovers and the defense having too many injuries to survive a playoff run against these non-Sam Darnold-led offenses.

Sure enough, both things did them in. Goff turned it over three times in the first half, then one more for good measure at the end with the game basically out of reach. The Lions also did themselves no favors when they threw a pick on a trick play in a 38-28 game in the fourth quarter with Jameson Williams making a bonehead throw. Maybe burn that one, Ben Johnson.

But I think the clear turning point was in the second quarter. You have this fun offensive game going on. Terry McLaurin just took a pass 58 yards to the end zone for a 17-14 lead. You think Detroit is going to answer, then bang, Goff throws a bad pick-six, he gets absolutely destroyed by a cheap shot to the face on the return. That should have been a penalty to negate the touchdown and make Washington earn it on offense. Instead, they get nothing in their favor and Goff leaves the game momentarily.

That’s what started the Lions chasing a 10-point deficit the rest of the night. You like to think you can get one score before halftime, but Goff threw another pick. Then when you think you have some answers in the fourth quarter, you leave 12 men on the field defensively on a 4th-and-2, and the Commanders convert one that way in embarrassing fashion for Dan Campbell’s staff.

Then the Williams pick disaster happened, and just like that, it’s 45-28 with half a quarter to go and your season is essentially over. You can’t make up that turnover deficit against such a hot offense that played mistake free football. Daniels diagnosed the blitz so well, he didn’t take any sacks, no turnovers, and they were 3-of-4 on fourth down (not including the 12 men penalty).

It’s crazy to think the Lions were closer to winning last year’s Super Bowl than this one. I made sure not to blame Goff or Campbell’s decision making for last year’s blown lead in San Francisco in the title game. That was more about the Josh Reynold drops, the Gibbs fumble, and the deflected pass to Aiyuk that could have been picked. But this time around? Yeah, Goff shit the bed and that defense just didn’t have any answers for Daniels and company outside of a poorly run sneak by Marcus Mariota on the opening drive.

Just spectacular stuff from Washington, the only road team to win this postseason. They have one more tough task left, but why shouldn’t the best rookie quarterback ever become the first to start a Super Bowl? That’d be a hell of a story.

It also puts to shame these teams who talk about multi-year rebuilding plans and act like you need so many years to get competitive. This team won 4 games last year, hired a retread in Dan Quinn, a retread OC in Kliff Kingsbury, signed cast-off veterans like Zach Ertz and Austin Ekeler, and it’s all working because they found the right quarterback in Daniels. How can you not be impressed?

As for Detroit, it looks quite possible 2023 was their window to get it done. Beat the 49ers, and they would have had their shot at upsetting the Chiefs without great weapons on KC’s side that year and a head-to-head win to start that season in Arrowhead. The Lions aren’t going to fall off in 2025 most likely, but you wonder if they lose Johnson, what happens to the offensive creativity, and is Goff someone you can trust to go the distance in the playoffs? The defense should be healthier, but I question even if they had Aidan Hutchinson if they still have enough stars to be a championship unit on that side of the ball.

https://twitter.com/ScottKacsmar/status/1880907234705567754

But I genuinely feel bad for Detroit fans because I thought this was going to be their year. Their aggressive calls on fourth down could have been quite the show against the Chiefs in the Super Bowl if the No. 1 seeds met. Now, maybe Washington can be that team with a true gamer and demon at quarterback in Daniels.

Rams at Eagles: Saquon the Snow Angel

My expectations for this game were low since I didn’t think the Rams had the offense to keep up if the Eagles were going to throw it more, and I expected another big game from Saquon Barkley.

But it turned out to be a good game in the snow thanks to the Rams showing Monday night wasn’t a fluke as they sacked Jalen Hurts seven times, including a couple of drives where they knocked him out of field goal range. They also recorded a safety on a sack where Hurts seemed to have no interest in trying to avoid it just minutes after a bad looking play on his knee on another sack. Maybe he needed some more time but his movement wasn’t great the rest of the game.

That kept the Rams alive, and so did a couple of missed extra points from Jake Elliott. But it’s really a miracle the Rams were 13 yards away from winning this game in the closing seconds when you consider their two lost fumbles in the second half, then giving up three touchdown runs of 40-plus yards in the game. Saquon again gashed them twice for 60+ yard scores, including what should have been the clincher from 78 yards out with 4:36 left.

But that missed extra point made it interesting at 28-15. Matthew Stafford finally started hitting some passes in succession in the no huddle, the Rams managed the clock well to get the first touchdown, and the defense stood tall on the three-and-out after sacking Hurts on an ill-advised second-down pass call.

Stafford had 2:23 left to drive 82 yards for the win, which would have been such a shocker after Barkley’s long run. The drive was going pretty well, but then the Rams had a huge false start, then picked the worst time to let Jalen Carter to crash in for a sack that brought up 4th-and-11. Stafford’s pass really wasn’t even close to Puka Nacua on the sideline and the game was over.

The Eagles had 184 rushing yards on their three big touchdown runs, and just 65 net passing yards to go with it because of the sacks. I thought A.J. Brown would step up after last week’s game, or that DeVonta Smith would be a big factor after he missed the Week 12 game. But they had 6 catches for 35 yards combined in this game.

Throw in Hurts sounding like he was high on pain medication at the end of the game and uncertain about next week, and it’s not the greatest look for next Sunday against the Commanders, who are rolling with confidence right now.

Don’t go penciling that Chiefs-Eagles rematch in by any means. It probably should happen just based on the general strength of these teams and home-field advantage, but they rarely make it look easy.

They still win though. But that was a solid effort from the Rams in weather they’re not used to playing games in.

Texans at Chiefs: When You’re Rusty and Still Win Wire-to-Wire

The Chiefs have broken the brains of so many people that I’m not sure what they’ll do if this team manages to win two more games this season. Even in a game where the Chiefs came out a bit rusty after 24 days since Christmas, they still never trailed, they found ways to make Travis Kelce look like his vintage self, and they put away the Texans with eight sacks and blocked another 35-yard field goal for good measure to the naysayers.

Were the Texans outplaying them early despite the scoreboard? Yeah, I said as much, and if you ignore dreadful special teams. But that all changed halfway through the second quarter. After Hollywood Brown dropped a perfect deep ball, Travis Kelce was left wide open over the middle where he actually made a YAC play for the longest playoff catch of his career (49 yards). The Chiefs finished that drive for a touchdown and led 13-3.

Even after that moment, the Chiefs still outscored the Texans 10-9 before intentionally taking a safety in the final seconds. The game never really felt in doubt, but that won’t stop ESPN from acting like it was a travesty the Texans lost another divisional round game. From Troy Aikman having a fit in the booth about the penalties to graphics like this after the game, they’re really trying to sell it hard that a team who lost wire-to-wire was the better team and something unnatural must have caused this loss:

https://twitter.com/ScottKacsmar/status/1880882765803270549

Yeah, it’s called the Texans played poorly, and the Chiefs took advantage of it.

On Sunday, the NFL supported both the roughing the passer call and late hit on Mahomes’ late slide. Don’t say the NFL never admits to errors, because I have a list of such times they did coming up this week. You may not like the dynamics of those calls with the late slide an issue, but they said any time you go to the head and neck area, it’s likely going to get a call that wouldn’t be changed even if replay assist looked at it.

Also, I can’t believe people are going to pretend like the Chiefs couldn’t overcome a 2nd-and-6, which would have been the situation after the Mahomes scramble without the 15-yard flag. Did the refs give up that touchdown on 3rd-and-goal from the 11 too? A perfect pass to Kelce while falling down to make it 20-12 in the fourth quarter.

Did the officials cause C.J. Stroud to go 1-of-8 in success rate while trailing 20-12 in the fourth quarter? He did that. The Chiefs tackled him cleanly on the opening drive that made him limp, and while he still had some good scrambles in this game, by the end of it he couldn’t move well, Steve Spagnuolo smelled blood in the water, and they racked up four of their eight sacks on one drive.

Then there’s the piss-poor special teams. You could see it on the opening snap when the Chiefs had a 63-yard return, fumbled it, but Houston failed to recover. Then the idiot (Kris Boyd) who forced the fumble threw his helmet off for a 15-yard flag, then had the nerve to go shove his position coach on the sideline.

If that wasn’t enough, the kicker Fairbairn missed an extra point, badly missed a 55-yard field goal they probably shouldn’t have attempted in the cold, and had his 35-yard kick blocked just so the Chiefs can show Denver was no fluke. That’s a 10-point swing on special teams alone, and with the Chiefs getting some good field position on several drives, that helped build up a yardage disparity.

But the other disingenuous part of that 49-0 graphic is the “outgained by 100 yards” stat of it. The Chiefs were outgained by 124 yards (336-212), but they lost 27 yards intentionally on the last drive with a couple of kneeldowns and an intentional safety. Otherwise, they wouldn’t have been outgained by 100 yards and the stat wouldn’t exist. The safety might not have been 100% necessary but the strategy was to avoid a blocked punt return touchdown, the most harmful outcome that could have happened to the Chiefs at that stage of the game.

But I’m really annoyed about hearing about officials when the Texans played this poorly. Both defenders were clearly headhunting too on the play where Mahomes gave himself up and they could have just tagged him down. They took each other out on a head-to-head hit anyway, the same team that knocked out Trevor Lawrence with a nasty concussion this season. Maybe your team just has a target on its back from these plays, Houston.

I don’t see how the ref made DeMeco Ryans delay a decision to go for a fourth-and-10, fail to call timeout, then lose a bunch of yards on a sack. Houston played poorly. Even their 82-yard touchdown drive had to gain 101 yards of offense because they kept shooting themselves in the foot with penalties. It was that inefficient of a performance in turning yards into points.

There are things I’d like to see the Chiefs do better. You’re probably not beating Buffalo with 23 points or 0 catches from Hollywood and DeAndre Hopkins. The designed plays to Worthy felt too gimmicky and not the best use of his emerging talent. The lack of go for the kill shots in Houston territory were alarming from Andy Reid, who seems to get off by keeping the game within one score.

But the Texans did not even come close to deserving to win this game. The Chiefs took advantage of their mistakes and that’s why they’re moving on to host another AFC Championship Game, their seventh appearance in a row.

Next week: Huge rematches on Championship Sunday and so much history at stake. You’re God damn right I want the rookie QB vs. the three-peat in the Super Bowl, but that could be the least likely outcome we get from this final four. The Chiefs will have to overcome their last loss with starters against Buffalo, and the Eagles have to overcome their only loss in their last 15 games against the Commanders. That’s good stuff.

NFL 2024 Divisional Round Predictions: The “Oh Fvck, It’s Finally Here” Edition

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

It’s been a pretty long week building up to my favorite NFL week of the year. After a lackluster Wild Card Weekend, I’m ready for some real drama and memorable moments that I think this round, short of a classic Super Bowl, provides the best.

Do we get it? That’s hard to say. I think these four games have a lot of potential for volatility to them.

  • Are the Chiefs rusty as hell with this 24-day window since playing the Steelers, or do they look sharp and easily get past a Houston team that flopped 34-10 in this spot a year ago after one decent half in Baltimore?
  • Does Jayden Daniels only grow his legend in Detroit in a close game, or is this payback for 1991 NFC-CG (41-10 win by Washington) and another rookie QB gets routed on the road in the playoffs by a +222 scoring differential juggernaut? I do like that it’s indoors given this week is cold as fvck and that’s probably going to hamper the other games.
  • Do Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry just run wild over the Rams and Bills again, or will Jalen Hurts and Lamar Jackson actually need to throw the ball for more than 150 yards this week? And can Jackson do it in the cold without his best wide receiver (Zay Flowers)?

All I know is home teams were 5-1 last week. The team who won the previous game was 3-1 in rematches. Only one losing team scored more than 14 points. Washington was the team that broke through for all three stats. Let’s see what happens this time around.

This Week’s Articles

NFL Divisional Round Predictions

At least we’ll get my main rooting interest this weekend out of the way first.

Texans at Chiefs (-8.5)

The Chiefs win a playoff game by more than one possession? Surely you jest. But I am nervous about this one, just because it’d be a devastating blow to see the three-peat end with this opponent in the divisional round. Losing next week to either team is whatever. It’s logical. This would even be logical if the Texans had Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell, but instead they’re limping in with only Nico Collins and JAGS while hoping the defense gets a bunch of takeaways. Let’s not forget how bad Houston looked in the first half last week, which says a lot about how bad the Chargers were.

But it’s the rust thing too. 24 days off for starters is historic. I think people are reading this as a criticism of Patrick Mahomes too, but it’s not even about that. I trust him more than anyone on the Chiefs to show up. But what if it is a slow start on both sides of the ball, and you see the Chiefs get into trouble the way they did against Houston in the 2019 AFC-D when they fell behind 24-0? That’s dropped passes, a blown coverage TD on defense, a special teams mistake, etc. — All things this team is clearly capable of doing in 2024 too.

What they’re not capable of doing in 2024 anymore is coming back from a 24-0 deficit in the blink of an eye. They’ve been too methodical on offense and don’t have the big runs and YAC plays to get it done like that anymore. The Chiefs are also riding a record-tying streak of 7 games without a turnover, so that could snap in this game but they better just hope it’s not multiple turnovers or that they lose the battle there by multiple turnovers. Defense can contribute too.

But yeah, I could see someone like Jaylen Watson taking a misstep or missing an assignment in his first game since October. He has the best excuse to be rusty for the Chiefs in this game.

The Chiefs losing this game would plague hell on my mentions this weekend. But for the people talking about point differential, let’s not forget the Texans are 372 points scored, 372 points allowed this season. That’s not an impressive team. C.J. Stroud has yet to win a playoff game where his defense/ST allowed more than a net 3 points.

I think the Chiefs are playing with fire in a way that isn’t really their fault because of scheduling, getting the No. 1 seed, and injuries to key players. But working in a new LT (Humphries or Tuney) and WRs (Hollywood) this late in the year against a good pass rush isn’t the greatest. Of course, Week 16 happened too, and that’s why I’m not that concerned.

Just survive the first half and the Chiefs should be fine. But no, I’m not picking them to cover. This is the Kansas City special. They don’t cover but they still win.

Final: Chiefs 24, Texans 17

Commanders at Lions (-9.5)

Pretty cool to see the only two teams in NFL history to have 3 games in a season with 0 punts/turnovers face each other in the playoffs. I hope it is a 4th-down fever dream from both sides with dazzling plays and second guessing all night — a game so weird that David Lynch is looking down and nodding in approval.

I like those stats that the Lions have failed to win by 10 points in 8-of-9 games where they allowed 20 points and also in games where they turn it over once. I think Washington can achieve both of those things in this game, especially the scoring since they’ve had at least 18 in every game.

But it’s tough for a rookie to win games like this, and Daniels already exceeded expectations last week. Still, I’m going with the same score I had last week, the same score the Commanders lost in Baltimore this year.

Final: Lions 30, Commanders 23

Rams at Eagles (-6.5)

Yeah, you’re not going to convince me this probably won’t be the worst game this weekend. I just don’t care for watching the Eagles most of the time, and that GB game last week is a pretty solid example for why. I wish they showed a little more care in throwing the ball, but maybe this game will get it from them.

But I expect Saquon Barkley to do well without the 70-yard touchdown runs this time. You just can’t stop that line from dominating right now. Then you have an LA team on the road that hasn’t topped 20 offensive points in any of Stafford’s last 4 starts. He’s become so dependent on Puka Nacua. They haven’t scored much on the Eagles the last two years. I have very low hopes for the Rams in this one, but I do think McVay is a better coach than Sirianni, and that defense has been playing very well in the last month. You never know.

Final: Eagles 23, Rams 14

Ravens at Bills (+1.5)

I see we’re already doing that thing where “Lamar should win as the favorite” in a game where the spread has gone from Buffalo -1 to Ravens -1.5, which is still tiny as these teams are so close this year they even have the same scoring differential (+157).

More than Half of my 6,000-word AFC preview was spent on this game, so I’ve said a lot about it already.. But my main takeaway has been this:

I said it before the season that the Ravens bomb in the playoffs because they try to be the offense they aren’t with throwing the ball and leaning on Lamar to do everything. They can’t do that in this game, especially with Zay Flowers out. I think if the Ravens play bully ball and stick with the run and 2-TE formations and Lamar does very well as a dual-threat, then the Ravens have a very good chance of winning this game. Their D has been the best at limiting points in the second half of the season and they already held Buffalo to a season-low 10 points.

But do I trust the Ravens to do that if they fall behind 7 or 10 points? Will they just panic again and abandon Henry and lead Lamar into trouble in what could be the coldest game of his career? This guy is dressed like Ralphie in A Christmas Story in Houston weather. He’s going to be freezing in Buffalo.

If the game was in Baltimore, I don’t think I’d be questioning it as much. But I’m more in the camp that I need to see this team do something differently in a game like this before I believe fully in them to pull it off. So yeah, I’m probably in that mindset that if the Ravens win this game, they’ll beat the Chiefs next week as I said after Week 1 they’ll feel good for the rematch. And if it’s Houston, then hell yeah they’re going to the Super Bowl. Both of these teams will feel SB bound if that first game Saturday goes Houston’s way.

But that’s the thing. I don’t think this game is going to live up to the hype because of the weather and the fact that QB duels rarely pan out in the playoffs. It’s the defense. It’s the better OL/running game. It’s turnovers, which Buffalo better watch out for cause they are long overdue for some fumbles going against them. It’s rarely the QBs, and the four Jackson-Allen games to date haven’t been QB masterclasses at all.

Do the Ravens still win ugly games? Because they might have to here. Haven’t won a game without scoring 28 points this year, but it could happen here if the defense shows up against Allen. I don’t see the Ravens scoring 28 at all. The under 51.5 is one of my favorite picks this week, and if you’re betting on the Ravens to lose, you should probably consider under 16.5 alternate points (think it’s like +500) to keep in line with the “Lamar scores his season low in the playoffs” stat.

But I think it is a coin flip game. The Ravens are more battle tested. They kicked Buffalo’s ass already. They’re better built for this weather right now. But they just have to show us that they can adapt in a playoff game and handle the pressure on the road.

Also, I hope I’m wrong about this game. I hope it is a QB classic, but I just don’t see it living up to 2021 Allen-Mahomes in the divisional round. But the funny thing about that game is the legacy would be even greater if the Chiefs won the Super Bowl that year. They didn’t even get there, losing to the Bengals the following week.

And that’s my other point about this game. For the winner, don’t get too cocky. All this hype about the MVP and this game, it doesn’t mean a damn thing if your team just goes into Kansas City next week and loses again, putting that team one game away from a three-peat, the closest anyone’s ever been.

This is not the end, but it is for one of these teams.

Final: Bills 24, Ravens 20

2024 NFL Stat Oddity: Week 18

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

The conclusion of Week 18 in the NFL means it’s time I reflect on my preseason predictions. Let’s just say I’m not feeling great at all about my Super Bowl pick (Packers over Chiefs), but at least the Packers and Texans, two teams I hyped up, are in the tournament. You never know.

But I seem to have continued my troubling pattern of being way off on my picks every other year. I was off by an average of 2.88 wins this season, my worst since I started tracking this in 2013.

2024 NFL Predictions

In my defense, I bet a lot of people were thrown by some of the 10-win teams this season as the Vikings (14-3), Commanders (12-5), and Broncos (10-7) all blew away expectations with rookie quarterbacks and a career year from Sam Darnold. I picked the Commanders and Vikings specifically to finish 4-13, so that accounts for a lot of the disparities.

Then I was also done in by some of the most disappointing teams this season like the 49ers and Jets, who both blew a lot of leads in games they should have won this year. They blew 10 leads between them with the Jets (6) leading the league in that category with a way too dramatic season with Aaron Rodgers getting people fired.

It ended up being a top-heavy season with seven teams winning 12+ games, including four teams winning 14+ games. Helping to balance things, we had 10 teams lose 12+ games, so there were a lot of poor teams too. That’s probably going to lead to a real balancing act in 2025 where more teams should move closer to .500, so it’ll be important not to overreact to some of these records.

As for Week 18, the early slate produced some unexpected close games, the late slate was devoid of any real drama, and Sunday night was a bummer because of Sam Darnold’s awful game. In all, we had 9 games with a comeback opportunity.

For the last time this season, let’s run through a recap of all 32 teams in their final game of 2024.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Vikings at Lions: The New Year’s Ghost

It took 18 weeks, 17 games, and the 272nd and final game of the regular season before the worst nightmare for Minnesota fans became reality. On the big stage with the No. 1 seed on the line, Sam Darnold was seeing ghosts and shitting his pants.

People are going to see a 31-9 final score and just chalk it up as a Detroit blowout, but this was Minnesota’s game for the taking well into the third quarter when it only trailed 10-9 despite so many missed opportunities. Red zone play was the main culprit as Darnold was just abysmal in that confined space, missing receivers left and right. The Lions challenged him with a good pass rush while playing man coverage, and he simply couldn’t beat it with so many balls overthrown and off the mark. Darnold finished 18-of-41 for 166 yards. No turnovers but failing three times on fourth down is just as bad, especially when multiple drives were inside the Detroit 3.

The Lions were already No. 1 in red zone EPA/pass allowed, and that number should only look better after this game. But what a shocker to see this game produce four touchdowns, and all four were scored by Jahmyr Gibbs for Detroit.

Matchups matter, and maybe the Vikings could come up with some better man-coverage beaters in a rematch should there be one. But I think this game changes a lot of the feelings about these teams going into the playoffs as the Lions may in fact have enough on defense to get the job done for the Super Bowl, and the Vikings might just end up going 14-4 with sweeps by the Lions and Rams (their next opponent).

I’ve been pro-Darnold this season and he’s been passing so many different tests. But given this was the biggest game of his career, I can’t say I’m confident about what he’ll do in the playoffs when the season truly is on the line. At least this was a trial run and he got a taste of the atmosphere, but that was brutal to watch all night.

Saints at Buccaneers: Baker’s Legs to the Rescue

One of the day’s most entertaining games was watching Tampa Bay struggle as a two-touchdown home favorite against Spencer Rattler and the Saints with a division title on the line. I always say division games are scary. But despite being an offensive juggernaut in many games this year, the Bucs were down 16-6 at halftime and 19-13 going into the fourth quarter.

But Baker Mayfield’s legs made up for a slow start to his passing. He ran 9 times for 68 yards in this game, including some huge plays in the fourth quarter to lead a comeback. He also got things going with Jalen McMillan, who had a huge catch on fourth down and a touchdown on a drive where he was wrongfully penalized for a finger-pointing celebration that had nothing to do with gun violence. Then Mike Evans started making plays as he needed 85 yards in the game to reach 1,000 yards for the 11th year in a row.

Meanwhile, the Saints added to their misery of not being able to make a single fourth-quarter comeback win for the second season in a row. They were 0-7 this year with four blown leads, and this was just another.

But Baker’s improv on a lateral to Bucky Irving for an 11-yard touchdown gave the Bucs a 27-19 lead with 1:51 left. The Saints turned it over on downs with 36 seconds left. The game was effectively over, but Evans needed 5 more yards to get his 1,000, which would trigger a $3M bonus. It was risky, but they threw a pass to him, and the Saints didn’t seem to mind letting him make the play as he picked up 9 yards and the whole team celebrated as the game was over, the bonus was his, and the NFC South belongs to Tampa Bay.

They would have won it anyway after Atlanta lost in overtime in Carolina, but this was a grind against a really bad New Orleans team that’s missing so many key players. We’ll see how the Bucs fare in a Week 1 rematch with the Commanders, but that might be a better matchup for them than the Vikings.

Bengals at Steelers: Close But No Cigar

Well, I guess the Bengals won the closest thing they’ll have to a playoff game this year as they came through in Pittsburgh in a 19-17 slugfest to reach 9-8. But they didn’t get the help they needed from the Chiefs-Broncos game on Sunday, so they are out. That’s also what happens when you lose 16-10 at home to the Patriots, one of the worst teams in football, in Week 1. September matters too and the Bengals dug too big of a hole to get out of.

But as for the team that is in the playoffs from this game, just what the hell are the Steelers doing to end this season? They’ve lost four games in a row and are playing terrible offense. Even though the start of this game looked like the defense was going to be a disaster, they calmed down and kept the Bengals out of the end zone all night after giving up that opening-drive touchdown. The special teams had a big mistake with a fumble, but they made up for it by recovering a fumble later.

This was on Arthur Smith’s offense. All the nice things I said when they lit up the Bengals in Cincinnati earlier this season, throw them out the window like they never happened. The Steelers sure seemed to forget they did.

Russell Wilson had 414 yards in that first game, taking advantage of YAC and passes to his running backs over the middle. That didn’t exist in this game. Jaylen Warren had 0 catches. Calvin Austin, someone who can catch some quick hitters, had 0 catches. George Pickens caught an early screen that was terrible, then didn’t catch his last five targets, including several awful drops in maybe the worst game I’ve ever seen a Pittsburgh wideout play. He finished with 0 yards and I’d put his chances of a second contract in Pittsburgh at 0.0001%.

For most of the half, Wilson had two completions: the ill-fated screen to Pickens and a brilliant 25-yard catch by Mike Williams. But guess what? Williams never received another target the rest of the game. How the fvck does this happen?

Then even when they had a chance to go get a game-winning field goal, Wilson, a veteran who has done this dozens of times, completely botched the last drive with horrible clock management. I can’t crucify him for the whole game because of the drops by Pickens and then the fourth-and-ballgame drop by Pat Freiermuth, but Wilson was terrible for most of the game. Get rid of the ball faster instead of being a pin cushion for Trey Hendrickson (3.5 sacks).

It’s just such a frustrating offense to watch, because there’s no reason they can’t be better than this. The coaching incompetence is high, and once again, Mike Tomlin has no answers for a losing streak.

They probably embrace going to Baltimore because of past success and playing an ugly, low-scoring game. But they did just lose 34-17 there, so this might be a rude awakening and a 5-game losing streak to end the season.

Chiefs at Broncos: That’s Going to Leave a Mark on the Stats

Well, I guess the Chiefs aren’t very good when they rest their ~13 best players for the playoffs and they’re facing a team that’s playing for their season that already should have beat the KC starters in Arrowhead earlier this year.

But god damn, 38-0? Making Bo Nix look like a mobile Drew Brees. The Broncos outgained them 479-98. You have to go back to the 2000 Browns against the Jaguars to find the last NFL team to get outgained by at least 380 yards while being held under 100 yards.

The Chiefs aren’t going to care about this performance, but it does create an interesting dynamic. What if this spurs the Broncos to go beat Buffalo in this week’s 7-2 matchup, which would send the Broncos right back to Arrowhead after the Chiefs haven’t played their starters for 24-25 days? Getting rid of Buffalo would be ideal, but let’s not act like Denver hasn’t played the Chiefs well even going back to last year. The Chiefs just don’t score much on them and they have multiple DPOY candidates.

Maybe the Broncos flop in Buffalo and it’s a moot point, but they won there last year by forcing the Bills into so many turnovers that they fired their offensive coordinator. The Bills are due for some turnovers too.

Interesting AFC race all around this year. I still think a Bengals-Bills game would have been must-see TV and the most interesting 7-2 game you could have, but we’ll see if Denver can turn this opportunity into something.

Bears at Packers: Not Feeling Good About Green Bay Anymore

If I’m just being honest, the Packers, my preseason Super Bowl pick, haven’t done much to impress me this season. Had it not been for a blocked field goal in Chicago, they would have finished 0-6 in division games. They already lost in Brazil to the Eagles, their playoff opponent. They beat up on a paper tiger like the Dolphins on Thanksgiving and smoked the 49ers without Brock Purdy. They beat the Rams before they were good this year.

What’s their best win? A 24-22 squeaker over the Texans? Maybe they’ll surprise us in the playoffs, but I’m not sure Sunday could have gone much worse as Matt LaFleur suffered his first loss to the Bears, which ended their 10-game losing streak overall and their 11-game losing streak to the Packers by making a field goal at the end. Had the Packers just picked up 2 more yards to get a fresh set of downs, they could have won the game themselves on a walk-off field goal. But they left Caleb Williams time, and after dinking and dunking to little success all day, he came through and his kicker had his back this time.

Jordan Love injured his elbow and his status is unknown. Christian Watson left injured, but what else is new there? I just don’t feel good at all about Green Bay repeating last year’s playoff success as the No. 7 seed. This team won more games (11-6), but what’s impressive? At least they won in Detroit last year and beat the Chiefs.

Commanders at Cowboys: Mariota to the Rescue

While the Packers were losing to the Bears, the Commanders were on the ropes against the Cowboys once again. I’m not sure what Jayden Daniels was trying to accomplish in this game, but after taking several sacks, they sent him to the bench at halftime for veteran Marcus Mariota.

But they continued playing their other starters as Terry McLaurin came up clutch on the game-winning drive. He had four catches on the drive, including the game-winning touchdown from 5 yards out with just 0:03 left. That’s how the Commanders were able to get to 12 wins with a 23-19 victory over a Dallas team that got a monster game out of Micah Parsons (2.5 sacks) and a rare look at Trey Lance, who I still say should have been starting over Cooper Rush after Dak Prescott was lost.

So concludes a very disappointing Dallas season at 7-10. But I will say that Jerry Jones is surprisingly gifted as an actor after seeing him in Landman this weekend.

Panthers at Falcons: Bryce Young Finishes Strong

The Panthers (5-12) could be a trendy pick for the NFC South or wild card next year after a respectable finish for Bryce Young given where his season began. Sunday was arguably his best game ever as he accounted for 5 total touchdowns, including the walk-off winner in overtime in a 44-38 game.

But we have all offseason to talk about whether we can trust that finish or see what pieces the Panthers add to this roster. The more troubling issue is the way Atlanta (8-9) faltered down the stretch, and the way the defense has disappointed rookie quarterback Michael Penix Jr., who led a couple of game-tying touchdown drives but never got the ball in overtime losses to Washington and Carolina.

The Falcons just gave up 44 points in his third start. As you might imagine, Tom Brady went 381 starts in the NFL without his team ever allowing more than 42 points. I like to bring that up only because it puts Brady’s incredible team help in context, but also because most of those games were under Bill Belichick, the coach the Falcons spurred in hiring in favor of Morris this year.

Still liking that move, Mr. Blank?

Seahawks at Rams: Geno’s Money Drive

Not much was on the line for the Seahawks, but Geno Smith had $6 million in incentives to hit, and he pulled off the trifecta for them. The key was getting the 10th win of the season for Seattle, the first 10-win team to miss the playoffs in the 7-team format. But it took a 4QC/GWD for Geno, the richest one of his career as he fought through the pain to throw his fourth touchdown pass to put the Seahawks up late.

Jimmy Garoppolo tried to answer after playing a solid game with the Rams’ backups, but his 4th-and-ballgame pass skipped in there short in a 30-25 loss. I’m a little surprised the Rams didn’t try to win for the No. 3 seed, but I guess they see little difference in No. 4 and No. 3, and they already beat the Vikings this year, their opponent next week.

But a good day for Geno that almost makes up for blowing the first Rams game that cost them the division title in the end.

Chargers at Raiders: Now the Real Fun Begins

Is Week 18 even real football when Quentin Johnston is catching 13-of-14 targets for 186 yards? But look out if he’s playing like that with Justin Herbert having his best defense, his best offensive line, and a real coach going into the playoffs with some momentum and a quality matchup in Houston next week.

This team is Kansas City’s worst nightmare in the divisional round. A gamer like Herbert who already tested them in Arrowhead without Ladd McConkey and J.K. Dobbins, and a pass rush that was after Mahomes all night and held the Chiefs under 20 points in both games. I could easily see NFL Films recording a “Who’s got it better than us?” chant from Harbaugh in a victorious locker room in two weeks to end the three-peat.

But first thing’s first. The Chargers need to deliver in Houston against that pass rush next week. Herbert has to get that first playoff win under his belt.

As for the Raiders, I’d fire the coach and do whatever I can to find some new quarterbacks for 2025.

Dolphins at Jets: Is That It for Aaron Rodgers?

I’m not surprised at all that Aaron Rodgers lit up the Dolphins for four touchdowns in what will probably be his last game for the Jets. Paper tiger defense with a backup quarterback starting in place of Tua Tagovailoa. It was never going to end well for Miami this year, and now Tyreek Hill seems to be on the way out – the Jimmy Butler path?

But Rodgers and the Jets (5-12) were the biggest disappointment in the league this year. If you told someone he’d get a trade for Davante Adams and finished with the stat line he had, you’d think the Jets were 10-7 or 11-6. But they blew a league-high six leads in the fourth quarter and firing Robert Saleh was premature.

Bills at Patriots: New England Wins, New England Loses, New England Fires Coach

The Bills definitely did the right thing by losing this one to make sure the Patriots didn’t have control of the No. 1 pick in the 2025 draft. Don’t need them getting Travis Hunter, but that’s still a possibility if the other teams force quarterback picks at the top.

But the team’s 4th win of the season was no happy ending for owner Robert Kraft, who waited almost no time before firing coach Jerod Mayo. I think that’s the right call since he never should have been hired in the first place and didn’t show any value for the job this year. But the timing was still a bit harsh. Mike Vrabel coming next?

Shout out to Joe Milton though. I don’t care who was on the field for either team. He made some spectacular plays and should get some longer looks in the NFL even if it has to be with another team down the road.

Giants at Eagles: Tanner McKee the New Kevin Kolb or Matt Flynn?

With the way teams are so quarterback starved, Tanner McKee could be making himself some money with these performances late in the year for the Eagles. He’s thrown 4 touchdown passes in basically 6 quarters, and they asked him to throw 41 passes in a wire-to-wire win against the Giants with the Eagles resting their good players – just like the Chiefs did but with far better results against a weaker opponent.

But even with backups, the Eagles had enough on both sides of the ball to get past the Giants, who will finish 3-14 with a ton of question marks.

Hell, maybe they can trade a third-round pick for McKee…

Jaguars at Colts: Overtime? In This Economy?

I guess no one told the Jaguars (4-13) and Colts (8-9) their game didn’t mean anything, because these motherfvckers went to overtime in Week 18. It ended the way you should expect with Joe Flacco leading his 30th game-winning drive with a field goal, and Mac Jones being unable to answer it because of a sack and a 20-yard completion on 4th-and-22.

We’ll see if both coaches are back next year, but I think it’s pretty unlikely, especially in Jacksonville.

Texans at Titans: Will Levis Era Over?

Is it over for Will Levis in Tennessee, which finished 3-14 and secured the No. 1 pick? If so, it was a fitting end in a 23-14 loss in Houston where he was involved in some wild turnover and touchdown plays.

And it seems to me you lived your life

Like a candle in the wind

Never knowing who to throw to

When the blitz came in

And I wish they didn’t draft you

With that high of a pick

Your mayo ran out long before

At least your dick is big

Goodnight, sweet prince.

49ers at Cardinals: When San Francisco Goes Low…

San Francisco’s last 22 seasons since 2003 only include 15 non-winning seasons and 7 trips to at least the NFC Championship Game. There’s no middle ground with this team, which fell to last place in the NFC West with a 6-11 record. The injuries will be blamed for this one, and that’s fair to a degree, but let’s not act like blowing all those fourth-quarter leads in the division didn’t ultimately screw them.

Meanwhile, the Cardinals (8-9) completed the sweep here by running up the score to 47 points, but where was this offense in all those weeks where they couldn’t break 14 or 17 points? Too inconsistent for me.

Browns at Ravens: The Biggest Spread of the Season

For a while there, it didn’t look like the Ravens were going to cover the 20-point spread, the largest this season. They were only up 21-10 in the fourth quarter after dropping a ton of passes, Zay Flowers left early with a knee injury, and the Ravens looked a little bored defensively and frustrated offensively. But Derrick Henry finally got rolling after a poor start, and before you knew it, the Ravens were up 35-10 to put this one away and win the AFC North.

Did Lamar Jackson do enough for his third MVP? I think he already did before the game started. It wasn’t the masterpiece ending for his case, but he didn’t do much wrong in this one. Will voters just go with the pity vote for Josh Allen like the sportsbooks seem to think given the odds? We’ll see. But Jackson just had arguably the greatest dual-threat season ever, and we’ll see if he can turn it into his best playoff run.

Next week: The playoffs. That means the annual Houston playoff game on a Saturday afternoon to kick things off. Then we’ll see if Pittsburgh’s historically underperforming playoff defense will show up again, or if Baltimore’s historically underperforming playoff offense will neutralize it in one of the closest games this weekend. I’m not that sold Denver will give Buffalo a good game, but maybe the Chiefs gave them some confidence in what they’re doing. Packers-Eagles will be played on a better field than Brazil this time. Commanders-Bucs, the last time these teams met in the playoffs in Tampa (January 2006), my furnace was broke, so hopefully that’s not a repeat event this weekend. Vikings-Rams is a perfect matchup to end the week, the rematch of the missed facemask penalty.

NFL 2024 Week 18 Predictions: Feeling Minnesota Edition

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The final weekend of the 2024 NFL regular season is here. I just took a peek at my preseason predictions for final records and they’re shaping up to be my worst ever, and the Minnesota Vikings are one of the biggest misses as I had them finishing 4-13. They’re a win away from going 15-2 and claiming the No. 1 seed with Sam Darnold having one of the greatest late-bloomer seasons ever, if not the greatest at the quarterback position.

But a lot of people probably made that mistake, right? It’s been a wild season with Washington also surprising people with its first 11-win season since 1991 behind rookie Jayden Daniels. The 49ers also repeated their 2020 “injury doom after a Super Bowl loss” season.

A lot to wrap up Sunday night when this thing is over and Game 272 is in the books.

This Week’s Articles

NFL Week 18 Predictions

The last week is always tricky as some teams could give a shit about the effort they’re going to put into this game, and for others, it’s literally the season on the line.

Like I said, some of these games mean little to nothing to these teams, so I’m only going to focus on the important ones here.

C:LE-BAL: All bets are off on Lamar’s MVP if he blows it as a 20-point favorite. That should go without saying. But I don’t expect Bailey Zappe to shock the world Saturday.

CIN-PIT: I wrote about this in my picks link above as I like the Steelers to win what might be their last win this season given their recent playoff flops. I think they know how to move the ball well against the Bengals and score points, and I believe in Cincy’s fatal flaws catching up to them with the season on the line. That means Joe Burrow taking sacks (please show up big for my DPOY futures bet, T.J. Watt) and the defense getting shredded. The Steelers are healthy after a long break from Christmas, so let’s see a better effort and send the Bengals home while likely clinching that No. 5 seed and a reasonable trip to Houston for the wild card.

BUF-NE: It doesn’t matter for the playoffs, but I’m going with New England in an upset win as it could satisfy two things for the Bills. After Josh Allen leaves the game after extending his consecutive starts streak, they can play like ass and lose big to the lowly Patriots to try bolstering his MVP case in another ridiculous fashion. But more importantly, don’t let the Patriots have control of the No. 1 pick in the draft and possibly land Travis Hunter as a weapon for Drake Maye. Lose this game to New England if you’re smart about the big picture in the AFC East.

NFC South: I’ll be shocked if the Bucs don’t come through and win against the awful Saints’ offense to win the NFC South.

KC-DEN: It sure looks like the Chiefs are not playing their ~12 best players or so in this game. You can’t bench everybody, but it’s going to be Carson Wentz and a slew of backups. Yet I’m still going to trust them to cover the spread and make it tough on Denver, which could be playing for its season if the Bengals win Saturday night. We’ll see but I think this game has some 2004 Steelers-Bills vibes to it.

MIA-NYJ: I don’t think this will be the last NFL game for Aaron Rodgers, but I do think he’s going to throw his 500th touchdown and get a win in what will be his last game for the Jets.

MIN-DET: The big one. 14-2 vs. 14-2. The Lions are +200 on the scoreboard and have had this incredible season, but I think the Vikings have the right stuff to win this game and earn the No. 1 seed. They have the defense that gets a takeaway every week, has held teams to 11/31 (35.5%) on 4th down to lead the league, and can get after Jared Goff like they did last time. I like the offense being able to score against this injury-ravaged defense that has allowed a lot of plays and points in recent weeks, and I think Darnold can get it done as he already has 5 GWDs this season.

It’s a little ballsy, but I’m feeling Minnesota in the Game of the Year that’s as much of a playoff game without being a literal playoff game. You either get a bye week and home-field advantage or you have to go on the road next week despite 14 wins. That’s crazy stuff. But I also think this is a fantastic trial run for Darnold for what real playoff games will be like. That’s why I still think this team has a shot to get to New Orleans even if they drop this game in a close one.

Maybe that’s a hint of where I’m going with my playoff picks this year, but let’s figure out these seeds and matchups before we get into that next week.

NFL 2024 Week 17 Predictions: The Longest Week Edition

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Well, the NFL is pulling it off. A Week 17 spanning from Wednesday (Christmas) through Monday night with eight different island games is one of the longest weeks in NFL history, and I wouldn’t be surprised if that island game mark is a single-week record.

We have a Saturday tripleheader to thank for it, and I’m not exactly looking forward to spending most of my attention for a day on these games. But at least I already finished season 2 of Squid Game on Netflix.

It’s not that the games are terrible today (Saturday), but the games this week going back to Green Bay’s Monday night win (34-0 vs. Saints) have been terrible. One sided or just downright offensively offensive like Seahawks-Bears was Thursday night. I think some teams are packing it in a bit and some are just waiting for the playoffs to start.

I’ve barely been betting any money on these games and I feel vindicated every time when you see a game like TNF without any touchdowns, or a game like HOU-BAL where no one on the Ravens had more than 2 catches. It’s rough out there.

Save your bankroll for the postseason, folks.

This Week’s Articles

NFL Week 17 Predictions

I nailed it on Christmas with the teams that won Saturday taking care of business again. I’m really starting to believe in a Chiefs-Ravens rematch in the AFC Championship Game.

NE-LAC: Christ, it was a 6-0 game last year and this one is again the Chargers on the road in an early body clock game. For that reason, plus their general inability to score a lot of points, I’m going to hedge and take the Pats to cover. Can see the Chargers winning on a late field goal here or Drake Maye turning the ball over in a 4QC attempt.

DEN-CIN: I know the Bengals are +1800 to make the playoffs but I’d love to see those odds updated if they win this game, because this is the big one with a chance to hand Denver a loss, the team they’re most likely going to have to steal that final wild card from as I like the Chargers to finish 11-6. I think the Bengals win the turnover battle, Joe Burrow’s 250 yard/3 TD pass streak stops, but very much like a Cincy playoff game (which this might be the closest thing they get to one in 2024), they still win with the defense stepping up.

ARI-LAR: The Cardinals absolutely blasted the Rams 41-10 earlier this year in a game where Puka Nacua was out and Cooper Kupp was injured. But the Cardinals are eliminated and the Rams could clinch the division this weekend (but not Saturday night as they need a strength of victory tiebreaker clinched over the weekend). Again, I’ll hedge and say the Cards can keep it close since the Rams have been needing 4QCs the last two weeks in low-volume passing performances for Stafford. But I do expect the Rams to win the game.

DAL-PHI: Really,? You mean that thumbs up from Jalen Hurts didn’t mean he was good enough to finish Sunday and he’ll miss another game too? That’s shocking. But even with Kenny Pickett there, I love Saquon Barkley to have a huge game as his final award push, and the Cowboys shutting down CeeDee should put a damper on Cooper Rush’s first reads against a good defense. Give me the Eagles to still cover.

IND-NYG: Is it Joe Flacco time or Anthony Richardson? I’m not sure it matters given the trash the Giants plan to roll out at quarterback again. The Colts can absolutely blow this, but I think the running game and defense lead to a convincing win.

LV-NO: It doesn’t sound like Derek Carr will get that chance to lose to his 32nd team against the Raiders. But after seeing what the Saints did Monday night, yeah, I’ll just take the Raiders here. Get those Brock Bower stats up.

NYJ-BUF: I think the game being close last time and the Bills looking shaky last week suggests a Jets +9.5 pick. But I’m just going to go against logic and take Buffalo to win by double digits. Might be Allen’s last game to pad his numbers for MVP, so I’d expect as many sneak opportunities at the goal line as possible.

TEN-JAX: Horrid game, but last time I trusted the Titans, they lost 10-6 to this team. Give me Jags for the sweep even if Mason Rudolph should deliver a win Just can’t trust them.

CAR-TB: Last time the game went to overtime before the Bucs pulled it out. Again, logic would say Panthers +8.5 is an easy call but I’m going with the Bucs winning big after slipping up in Dallas. Offense will be stronger.

MIA-CLE: Honestly? I just don’t care without Jameis.

GB-MIN: Great game potential, and I swear the Packers were -1.5 when I did this 24 hours ago. But I do like the Vikings to win again and pull it out in the fourth quarter by coming up with a takeaway or critical stop against Love. Mostly, I’m just rooting hard for the Vikings to win so we get Vikings-Lions on SNF next week to decide the No. 1 seed. That’s the best possible ending to the regular season and we need a MIN win here to get there.

ATL-WAS: Curious to see Penix Jr. in his first prime-time game and only 2nd start. But I’m also banking on Jayden Daniels to back me up with a big game for the MVP talk I’ve been giving him throughout this season.

DET-SF: My favorite spread pick all week is Lions -3.5. I think they’ll go in there seeking revenge for blowing that lead in the title game and kick some ass against a San Francisco team that’s already eliminated and playing a lot of poor football the last month.

2024 NFL Stat Oddity: Week 15

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There were 13 games on Sunday’s NFL slate, but if you like close games, this wasn’t a good day for you. Only four games had a comeback opportunity (five for the week including TNF), and only four games were decided by fewer than 10 points.

You know it’s a rough week for close games when even the Chiefs led by 14+ points for the final 34:46. But Week 15 did still feel like a pivotal one for the Super Bowl LIX chase:

  • The Lions showed there’s no reason to trust their defense to get stops as they deal with too many injuries on that side of the ball.
  • The Bills show they might be impossible to stop in the Superdome in February if they can survive the AFC playoffs in likely wintry conditions.
  • The Chiefs have some real concerns with Patrick Mahomes’ high-ankle sprain and losing control of the top seed with a much tougher remaining schedule than Buffalo.
  • The Eagles look like a well-rounded team now that the passing game showed up against the Steelers.

Those four teams are topping the latest Super Bowl odds, but you can’t discount a run by the Ravens or Packers. I might even add the Vikings in there, but let’s see what happens Monday night first on that front. With so many comfortable wins already, maybe an upset could be in store for Monday night.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Bills at Lions: Deja Vu Role Reversal  

No matter what preconceived notions you had about Detroit losing this game, you can likely discard them. They didn’t lose because of Jared Goff, who was awesome with 494 yards, 5 touchdowns, and no turnovers on a day where his running backs were held to 35 yards on 13 carries. In fact, the game’s only turnover was a fumble by Amon-Ra St. Brown that set up the Bills on a short field.

They also didn’t lose 48-42 because of whacky Dan Campbell decisions. The Lions were 3-for-3 on fourth downs, and they even let their kicker (Jake Bates) try a 52-yard field goal before halftime. He missed on the type of kick he’s been making for them this year. That miss and the fumble hurt on a day where the Lions had little margin for error.

The Lions lost because their injury-ravaged defense had no answers for stopping the Bills, who stayed hot from last week, and Campbell knew he couldn’t rely on that unit to get stops in this one after a bad start with the Bills taking a 14-0 lead, pouncing early on big pass plays to their backup running backs.

In many ways, it was déjà vu to last week for Buffalo in their 44-42 loss in Los Angeles against the Rams, except this time they were the team that led wire-to-wire while the Lions were always stuck playing catch up. Both teams piled up over 520 yards of offense, but the Bills always made sure the Lions were behind 2-or-3 scores for all six of their second-half possessions, much like the Bills faced last week in LA. Just no chance of tying or taking the lead late.

But it did get a little interesting when the Bills had to settle for a field goal to make it 48-35 with 2:03 left. The Lions saved their timeouts and they were able to score a touchdown with 12 seconds and two timeouts left. They were very close to recovering an onside kick that could have made this a Hail Mary finish, but the Bills ultimately came out of the pile with the ball to end it.

Speaking of onside kicks, that seems to be the decision that Campbell is getting shredded for when he tried one with 12 minutes left in a 38-28 game. The Bills recovered and Mack Hollins was actually able to return it to the Detroit 5, setting up another easy touchdown drive for the Bills to go up 45-28 one play later.

But I get the call from Campbell. He knows how his defense has been playing these last few weeks, especially in the second half of games when their limited depth is greatly tested and hasn’t been able to get stops. The Lions also lost more defenders to injury in this game. I think Campbell figured he’d give stealing a possession with an onside kick recovery a try, and if they didn’t get it, at least Buffalo would score quickly than if you gave them a longer field. I don’t mind the call. I just think people are having a more negative reaction because the result was a return to the 5-yard line, which rarely happens on an onside kick.

I already get the sense that Campbell is going to face some harsh criticism in the playoffs even though his defense isn’t giving him much of a choice to trust them to get a stop.

In ending Kansas City’s 15-game winning streak and Detroit’s 11-game winning streak, that’s probably going to keep the Bills as the favorites for the Super Bowl going into the playoffs since they have a cakewalk schedule these last three weeks and every other contender doesn’t. Actually, I’m seeing Bills (+425), Lions (+440), Eagles (+450), and Chiefs (+475) at BetOnline, so it’s one of the closest 4-way races you’ll ever see. But that’s sure to change if the Bills can land the No. 1 seed, which gets a boost from the Mahomes injury.

But there’s no way I’m crowning Buffalo in Week 15. Scoring 42+ points in back-to-back road games is cool, but they’ve also just allowed 42+ points in back-to-back road games too. Of the 309 teams to allow 40 points in multiple games (consecutive or not) in the Super Bowl era (1966-2023), just one of them won the Super Bowl that year. It was the 2007 Giants.

The Bills have killed some epic winning streaks themselves this season. Maybe they even get a chance to end a 15-game winning streak for the Eagles in the Super Bowl in a rematch of 2023’s best regular-season game. That looks a bit more likely now than a Bills-Lions rematch in February with the state of the defense for Detroit.

We’ll see what Minnesota does Monday night against the Bears, but the NFC North is far from locked up for Detroit too. It still has the No. 1 seed lead over the Eagles, but the remaining schedule favors the Eagles.

Chiefs at Browns: Turnover Regression

I posted a lot of stats this week about Kansas City’s historic success despite only having 10 takeaways on the season. Part of the reason I did that is because I knew they were facing Jameis Winston and the Browns this week, and everyone knows he can be charitable with the ball.

But it’s also a matter of regression. Either the Chiefs are going to start taking the ball away more often, or they might start losing games this season. Well, the turnover regression started early on Sunday, but the Browns blew it away with turning the ball over six times in a 21-7 loss.

The special teams got it started with a forced fumble on a punt return, and that’s even after the Browns cut Kadarius Toney this week. Then Jameis Winston was intercepted in the end zone, the first of three Jameis picks before he was benched for DTR, who also threw a pick. Hell, even Trent McDuffie got the first pick of his NFL career after playing roughly 3,000 snaps for the Chiefs. Poor Nick Chubb broke his foot and lost a fumble. Just a miserable day for the Browns as the Chiefs got a huge boost in takeaways.

It’s the first Kansas City game since the wild card win against Miami in frigid temperatures where the score wasn’t within one possession at some point in the fourth quarter. The Chiefs led 21-7 for the final 18 minutes. See what happens when you get takeaways? You lead 21-0 and win 21-7 without all the drama.

But there was drama of course as Patrick Mahomes did not finish this game due to a high-ankle sprain. It was a rough second half for Mahomes with 8 straight incompletions at one point, but one has to wonder why Andy Reid would still be throwing the ball so much with a rare big lead. The Chiefs didn’t give up any sacks in this game with guard Joe Thuney getting the start at left tackle, but there were 11 quarterback hits, which should be one of the highest numbers in a game in Mahomes’ career. Letting him get hit repeatedly with a multi-touchdown lead looked quite dumb.

Everything went downhill after DeAndre Hopkins dropped a great pass on third-and-long for the third game in a row. The Chiefs kept throwing incompletions soon after that, and while their turnover regression was fantastic, they also saw their 3rd-down success rate plummet in this game as they were just 7-of-18 (38.9%) after being over 52% this year.

Mahomes’ injury actually happened on a 4th-and-3 at the Cleveland 39 with 8:01 left. Man, for all the times where you curse at Andy Reid for punting, maybe that’s a spot where you actually take a 5-yard penalty and punt and let your defense do its job, or just wait for Cleveland to turn it over again with a backup quarterback entering the game.

A lot of things have been poorly managed with the Chiefs lately, but now we’ll see how they handle this schedule crunch with games coming up on Saturday (Texans) and next Wednesday (at Steelers) while there is little margin for error if the Chiefs (13-1) want to hold off Buffalo (11-2) for the No. 1 seed that they seemingly need if they want the three-peat to happen.

But it could come down to Carson Wentz against an elite pass rush from the Texans this Saturday. Good going, Andy.

Steelers at Eagles: As Expected

Not a ton to say here because I really did expect the Eagles to win by 14+ points as the game just wasn’t that important for the Steelers, who can win the AFC North with a win in Baltimore on Saturday. Everything was stacked against them here with George Pickens still out, the Eagles being a really strong opponent with an elite defense, and you had to figure Jalen Hurts and A.J. Brown would connect after grumblings in the building about their passing game. The last time they played in 2022, Hurts and Brown torched this defense, and the results Sunday weren’t far off.

Hurts and Brown were outstanding early on, and to the Steelers’ credit, they fought back to make it a 17-13 game at halftime. But what a second half for ball control for the Eagles. They had three very long drives, which helped limit the Steelers to 11 offensive snaps in the second half on just two drives. You never see that in any half.

The Eagles couldn’t be stopped, and yeah, the Steelers helped with roughing the long snapper on a field goal to extend one drive, then Najee Harris fumbled a pitch on their last real chance of tying the game.

But the Tush Push was too much to deal with, and the Eagles just kept converting crucial downs. However, Mike Tomlin deserves criticism for punting on 4th-and-7 at the Philly 46 in a 27-13 game with 10:40 left. Yeah, that’s not a great situation to be in, but you’re already down 2 touchdowns and can’t get them off the field. Just go for it.

He punted, and the Eagles went on an epic 21-play drive that consumed the final 10:29 on the clock. They converted five times on third or fourth down, a perfect way to close out a game.

I didn’t expect much from the Steelers in this game. But after an encouraging first half by the defense hanging in there, it was disappointing to see how badly they were dominated in the second half. It doesn’t paint a good picture for the rest of the season with the Ravens, Chiefs, and Bengals to come before the playoffs.

Dolphins at Texans: The Streak Continues (Or Begins Anew)

I know C.J. Stroud and the Texans haven’t been living up to the hype I started giving them in February. But they are the AFC South champs again, and they were home for this game, which is frankly all I needed to bet on them to beat the Miami Dolphins, one of the worst teams at beating playoff teams on the road in the Mike McDaniel era.

The Dolphins had lost every game in that scenario going back to their last win in such a game in September 2022 in Baltimore. They had lost 10 straight such games going into this season before losing in Seattle, losing in Buffalo, losing in Green Bay, and losing in Houston. However, they did win at the Rams in Week 10, and the Rams might win the NFC West instead of Seattle. So, it’s possible the streak ended at 11 games with the LA win, but it’s likely picked back up with losses in Green Bay and Houston.

I belabor this point on Miami because once you see it, it makes it really hard to ever trust them to do anything important. So, that’s why I don’t really put much value in what completion percentage Tua Tagovailoa has, or what he does against a Jets team that can’t stop blowing leads this year like last week. Show me something in a big game, and sure enough, Tagovailoa had four turnovers in this winnable game, including two picks in a fourth quarter that never changed on the scoreboard with a 20-12 final.

It’s not like Stroud was fantastic in this game. He threw 2 touchdowns to Nico Collins, who somehow only had 17 yards on 4 catches in the game. Stroud took another 4 sacks and Joe Mixon (12 carries for 23 yards) was shut down again.

This was on Tua to deliver, and he failed miserably – let’s not miss that Tyreek Hill was bad too – in another fourth quarter. Few things are this reliably predictable in the NFL like the Dolphins facing a good team on the road.

Colts at Broncos: The Signature Game for the Anthony Richardson Era?

This might be the game where people jumped off the hope train for the Shane Steichen-Anthony Richardson era for the Colts (6-8). In truth, it was neither guy who was to blame for the turning point in this loss in Denver. Jonathan Taylor looked like he scored a 41-yard touchdown run that was going to give the Colts a 20-7 lead in the third quarter, which felt like it could have been insurmountable with how badly rookie Bo Nix was playing on a 3-pick day.

But Taylor made the dumbest play in football to trigger the only situation where I don’t mind one of the dumbest rules in football being enforced. He dropped the ball prematurely before he broke the plane, resulting in a touchback and Denver’s ball. Huge mistake.

While plenty more mistakes were made by the Colts, that took a clear touchdown off the board. Denver finally took the lead in the fourth quarter on a 15-yard touchdown drive after a long punt return by Mims set them up. Then Steichen and Adonai Mitchell made the play that is the new “fake punt against the Patriots” for this era of the Colts:

https://twitter.com/YahooSports/status/1868446322149527559

Always love a play that makes me literally laugh out loud. With Mitchell’s slow release on the pitch back, you could just see this one coming from a mile away before Nik Bonitto returned it 50 yards for a crushing touchdown to make it 24-13. Richardson, who was 17-of-38 with two picks, wasn’t overcoming that deficit, and it only grew more to a 31-13 final.

That’s just a sobering finish to a game and basically the season. Now you don’t know if you can trust your coach, your quarterback, and apparently not your high draft pick on a receiver this year for 2025.

I enjoyed my years of Colts fandom while it lasted (2002-2019), but I’m glad I gave up on it before this era came along. I couldn’t stomach this level of incompetency.

Packers at Seahawks: Seattle Is in Trouble

The Seahawks (8-6) were already a slight underdog to the Rams when it came to winning the NFC West going into the weekend. When you looked at the remaining schedules, it made sense with the Rams having easier games and home field for the Week 18 meeting.

But the Seahawks also didn’t look like a real contender on Sunday night as the Packers were walking all over them in a 23-6 game. It only got mildly interesting when a Josh Jacobs fumble led to a Seattle touchdown drive with backup Sam Howell in the game for an injured Geno Smith, another big problem for Seattle to overcome the rest of the season.

But the Packers eventually put things away with another touchdown pass to Romeo Doubs, who caught both of Jordan Love’s touchdowns. The Packers are 10-4 and might be the best third-place team you’ll ever see.

As for Seattle, this defense’s performance is so clearly dependent on who they’re playing. With the Vikings and Rams still to come, that’s not encouraging.

Buccaneers at Chargers: Baker Doesn’t Care Where Your Scoring Defense Ranks

Even without Chris Godwin and a bad habit for turnovers, the Buccaneers are one of the most lethal offenses in the league this year. Even though the Chargers were still the No. 1 scoring defense, Tampa dropped 40 points in their building with 506 yards of offense, outgaining the Chargers by a full 300 yards in a 40-17 rout that was close well into the third quarter.

But Mike Evans took over with two touchdown catches in the third quarter as he’s still coming for that 1,000-yard streak despite missing games to injury, and Justin Herbert threw his first pick since September.

Tampa Bay (8-6) might actually live up to that “team you don’t want to face in the playoffs” narrative that gets forced on someone each year. As for the Chargers, I’m not going to call the defense a fraud, but it’s not a good sign when your 3 worst games are at home against the Bengals, Ravens, and Buccaneers, probably the three best offenses they’ve played this year. They just can’t keep up with teams like that given the lack of weapons around Herbert.

Ravens at Giants: The Giant Spread Goes Baltimore’s Way

We got an early sense of whether or not Lamar Jackson was being truthful about running more the rest of the season. He took off for 15 yards on the second snap from scrimmage, but this time it ended in a fumble. The Ravens declined to go for a 4th-and-1 at midfield and punted on the next drive, and you started to wonder if this biggest spread of the season (Ravens -16.5) was going to be a flop with the Ravens a little rusty after the bye week.

But they got it done eventually. While Jackson finished with 65 rushing yards, it was not a running demolition against one of the worst run defenses in the league as Derrick Henry finished with 14 carries for 67 yards and no touchdowns again. Instead, Jackson was 21-of-25 for 290 yards and 5 touchdowns, just missing out on another perfect passer rating game.

The passing game came easy for the Ravens in this one, and the same can’t be said (ever?) for the Giants, who started Tommy DeVito and ended with Tim Boyle after DeVito suffered a concussion. That helped the spread work out as Boyle missed some scoring opportunities in the 35-14 loss.

But this was supposed to be a rout. Let’s see what the Ravens do against the Steelers when the division title can be won by Pittsburgh this Saturday in Baltimore. The Ravens are already looking like a considerable favorite for that one, but we know those games have been going Pittsburgh’s way for years.

Bengals at Titans: Turnover Fest Goes Cincinnati’s Way in Mentor vs. Mentee Matchup

On the plus side, Joe Burrow threw two picks in this game, including one on the first drive, so we shouldn’t have to hear the Oppression Olympics working overtime to prop up his season for having a poor record despite a certain TD:INT ratio. He’s up to eight picks this season and also lost another fumble in this game.

But it didn’t matter as the Titans went on to turn it over six times, including a pick-six that got Will Levis immediately benched for Mason Rudolph after it was Levis’ fourth turnover. Pretty brutal stuff against this defense. The Bengals led by double digits the entire second half, one of their most comfortable wins all season.

I guess the Titans will go back to Levis next week, but they’re just playing out the schedule with little optimism for 2025. The Bengals (6-8) got some help with the Colts and Dolphins losing, or did they? The Bengals still rank behind both teams in the playoff standings, and it might have been beneficial if the Broncos lost to Indy to facilitate a collapse there while you can count on the Colts to keep losing other games.

Well, I’m sure it’ll all sort itself out but the Bengals had a good day overall at former OC Brian Callahan’s expense.

Commanders at Saints: Almost a Controversial Outcome

Playing in New Orleans again, those NFC South flashbacks must have hit Dan Quinn as the Commanders nearly blew a 17-0 lead in the second half that would have been one of the most controversial endings this season.

The Saints got back in the game by benching their new quarterback for rookie Spencer Rattler, but it was a trick play with a great catch by Alvin Kamara that got them on the board. The Commanders later had a chance to ice the game with a field goal to make it a 10-point game, but Greg Joseph missed a 54-yard field goal with 1:55 left.

That gave the Saints a chance at the tie or win, and they converted a 4th-down play to the 1-yard line in the closing seconds. But for some reason, the clock stopped at 0:09 for a solid 4 seconds before it started rolling again and that gave Rattler time to get the spike off. Had this not happened, it’s quite possible the clock would have run out. Maybe they could have gotten it with 1 second left had they seen it running out on them, but it would have been super close and that kind of clock error is inexcusable in this moment.

https://twitter.com/ChadwikoTWW/status/1868431498447323403

The Saints scored the touchdown on the last play, and they made the right decision to go for 2 and the win. But Rattler’s pass wasn’t even close in the end zone, and the Commanders (-7.5) held on for the 20-19 win after a real scare.

The only thing I’m shocked about here is that this didn’t happen in Philadelphia, because that’s the stadium where I’ve observed some real shady clock operating. But they’re apparently blaming this one on an official on the field accidentally stopping the clock when he shouldn’t have. Either way, it shouldn’t happen.

Oddly enough, this was the first time all year the Commanders successfully defended a one-score lead in the fourth quarter, the last team to do so in a game this year. What a sweat it was though.

Jets at Jaguars: Davante Adams’ Best Half

Congratulations to Aaron Rodgers on his 24th fourth-quarter comeback win, tying him with Patrick Mahomes on the career list even though his career is a dozen years shorter.

But it really was one of the greatest halves by a receiver in NFL history that made this one possible. The Jets only had 3 completions at halftime in another lackluster start. Davante Adams didn’t have a single catch, but in the second half alone, he went off for 198 yards and 2 touchdowns on 9 catches. He also caught a go-ahead 2-point conversion after his 71-yard touchdown put the Jets ahead after they almost blew their sixth 4th-quarter lead of the season.

It was also Adams who took the ball to the 1-yard line on the game-winning drive, which was a touchdown run by Breece Hall that the Jaguars may have just allowed willingly to get the ball back with some time in a 32-25 game. However, Mac Jones returned to his senses and threw a game-ending pick.

Maybe the craziest stat after Adams nearly going for a 400-yard full-game pace with that second half was that Rodgers led the Jets in rushing with 45 yards on 6 carries.

It’s too little too late for these Jets, but that was a vintage Rodgers to Adams performance that we thought we’d see earlier this year.

Cowboys at Panthers: Can See Why Carolina Is Usually the Underdog…

I can see why the Panthers have been underdogs for more than 30 straight games before Sunday where they lost 30-14 at home to Dallas. Count me in as one of the suckers who bought the fool’s gold that Carolina was doing better the last month (they really were, though) and that they could beat a Dallas team with a quarterback in Cooper Rush who couldn’t even throw for 200 yards at home against that Cincinnati defense.

Well, Rush threw 3 touchdowns in this one even if it took some great efforts from his receivers. Bryce Young had 4 turnovers and 6 sacks, including a strip-sack to start the second half when it was a 10-7 game, which really opened the floodgates on this one.

Dallas even won convincingly despite trying a 70-yard field goal that went about as poorly as you can imagine. I guess Carolina is still really bad.

Patriots at Cardinals: Third Down Differential 1991 Style

Not an interesting game as the Cardinals basically routed the Patriots to end their 3-game losing streak. But an interesting stat was on third down where the Patriots were 0-for-6 and the Cardinals were 10-for-15. It’s only the fifth game since 1991, the year they started officially tracking down stats, where one team failed to convert a single third down and their opponent converted at least two-thirds with a minimum 10 conversions.

The closest such game to this was back in 1991 when the Cardinals were 11-for-16 and the Patriots were 0-for-6 in a 24-10 win by the Phoenix Cardinals. So, there’s some more déjà vu.

Next week: Broncos-Chargers is solid for TNF with both teams hoping to make the playoffs. Saturday should have been great, but here we go with Patrick Mahomes and T.J. Watt leaving the fourth quarter with injuries and now facing a short week. Eagles-Commanders the highlight of Sunday’s early schedule even if it feels inevitable that the Eagles win the NFC East. Vikings-Seahawks the highlight in a low-key late slate. Bucs-Cowboys is a shit game for SNF that should have been flexed, but God forbid we do that to Jerry Jones. Saints-Packers should be a Green Bay rout on Monday night. So, I’m not really sure where the week peaks. Probably Steelers-Ravens for the AFC North on Saturday.

NFL 2024 Week 15 Predictions: The Gauntlet Begins Edition

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

The bye weeks are all finished for the 2024 NFL season, so it’s back to 16-game slates for the last month. But Week 15 marks the beginning of the gauntlet I’ve been talking about since May when the schedule came out. For reasons I’m sure are stupid, the league has four major AFC contenders (Chiefs, Steelers, Ravens, Texans) all playing three games 10 days apart from December 15 – December 25. They’ll all play Sunday, then they’re in action against each other next Saturday (12/21), then they’ll be playing on Christmas that Wednesday.

The winner here is really Buffalo, which had a late bye and doesn’t have to deal with this nonsense. I don’t know what the NFL was thinking other than dollars with Saturday and Wednesday island games over the holidays with contenders. But you’re just asking for players to get hurt here with such short recovery times, and some of these teams like the Chiefs had an early bye, so they really could use some rest here. Then when you have such important games and a physical game like Steelers-Ravens in the mix, it’s just a terrible idea to do this.

This Week’s Articles

NFL Week 15 Predictions

Silly me for thinking the 49ers would salvage their season and not get swept by the Rams, or blow their 4th 4Q lead in a division game this season. They are done now.

WAS-NO: Got an inexperienced QB starting for the Saints, so that’s a wild card here. The spread might be a little high for Washington, but the bye week should have helped, they’ve blown some weak teams out this year, so I’m just going to roll with Jayden Daniels outscoring the Saints by 8+.

CIN-TEN: Could be a good underdog spot for Brian Callahan’s knowledge of the Bengals, but I just can’t bring myself to betting on the Titans and Will Levis after losing 10-6 last week to the Jags with Mac Jones. That’s beyond the pale.

MIA-HOU: Dolphins are really playing better football right now than Houston, but the Texans had their bye, they should still win the AFC South, and I’m just going to play the streak that this is the type of game Miami loses on the road every time.

KC-CLE: I like for Jameis to put up some big numbers, but will we actually see the KC defense get some picks this week? They’re dying for some regression there. But I wouldn’t bet on the spread here as much as I’d take the best bet this year: Chiefs by 1-13 points. But KC better have answers for blocking Myles Garrett, who is coming for his 100th sack. That’s a good defensive prop pick to bet on here.

DAL-CAR: Been a few seasons since the Panthers were favored. I’m going to trust them too since I think it’s been a month of impressive football given where this team was to start the year. Bryce Young is better than Cooper Rush, and I’m going to trust Xavier Legette, who is hilarious to listen to, making up for last week’s drop with a big play.

NYJ-JAX: Again, Aaron Rodgers should probably just retire on the spot if he can’t beat the 3-10 Jags with Mac Jones. But we’ve been burned before on the Jets this year.

BAL-NYG: I see a 30-14 type of game here, which will piss off the Baltimore -16.5 bettors. But this is the biggest spread of the season so far.

IND-DEN: Fine with eating crow on this one but I just think a rested Denver pass defense is going to make Anthony Richardson look terrible, and the Broncos should have a varied attack against that defense in a comfortable cover.

NE-ARI: Naming defenders on these teams is a tough task. I think Drake Maye could keep it close again, but I’m taking the Cards to end their 3-game losing streak.

TB-LAC: Could be one of Sunday’s best games. I’m going to assume and hope that Ladd McConkey is playing, which is why I like the Chargers at home. Just think the defense can get more takeaways out of Baker Mayfield and the Chargers will win the turnover battle while keeping that offense in check.

PIT-PHI: If Bryce Young could nearly (and should have) beat the Eagles in Philly, what’s stopping Russell Wilson? Well, I wanted to take the Steelers ATS here, but the lack of George Pickens is huge in a matchup like this against a strong defense and potent offense. You can get away without Pickens against Cleveland at home but it’s a different story here. I also see the Eagles perking up with their passing game after rumblings from their WRs that they aren’t getting enough targets. Basically, I think the Steelers blow this game off as it doesn’t really matter. Just win next Saturday in Baltimore and you’re the AFC North champions. Nothing that happens this Sunday changes that fact that next Saturday is the big one.

BUF-DET: Super Bowl preview? It could be. I’ve bounced back and forth on this one. Ultimately, I think the Lions are due for a loss after barely getting by the Bears and Packers in the division. Unfamiliar opponent here. Lots of injuries on defense too, and we’ve seen the Lions really struggle to stop teams from scoring after good starts to their last two games. I think Josh Allen will have a good game and Jared Goff might make a late mistake or Dan Campbell’s 4th down gamble backfires this time and the Bills win by 1-to-6 points.

GB-SEA: I think the Packers are the better team with the better quarterback, experienced coach, and Geno Smith likely won’t go back-to-back games without a sack or turnover. But it could be a good one Sunday night.

CHI-MIN: Crazy comeback by the Bears last time to force overtime and give the Vikings a scare. Minnesota’s been playing tight games but I think it can open up a big lead and score on this Chicago team with Sam Darnold playing arguably his best ball all year right now.

ATL-LV: Seriously, how do you pick a MNF doubleheader this shitty? I don’t really care to watch either game. But it would be a disaster for Kirk Cousins to get outplayed by Desmond Ridder of all people. He has to come through here and get Atlanta back on track. If not, then they might as well turn things over to Penix.