Let’s see if I can do a speed run through today to get to bed at a decent time as it has been a long one from Ireland to past midnight to watch the highest-scoring overtime tie in NFL history.
But it definitely was an eventful day, one that makes you reevaluate some of these teams as the Packers and Ravens, my Super Bowl picks, don’t look ready to make that leap yet. The Bills also struggled with the Saints despite the largest spread of the season, the Chargers lost a bad one (and maybe another offensive tackle) at MetLife, and the Chiefs and Lions still look like formidable contenders.
We had nine games with a comeback opportunity but no double-digit comeback wins yet in Week 4. I’m not even sure what we’re supposed to watch during the MNF doubleheader, but I’m rocking with a Jets ML/Fields TD/Dobbins TD/DEN ML parlay.
This season in NFL Stat Oddity:
Ravens at Chiefs: Game of the Week (or Weak?)
I picked the Chiefs to win all week, but even I didn’t think they’d be up 37-13 and scoring on almost every drive. Xavier Worthy’s return was huge for the offense as he had 121 yards from scrimmage and even was the leading rusher (38 yards) for KC thanks to a 35-yard trick play. The spacing just looked much better, including on the Kelce plays that worked this week.
Patrick Mahomes obviously did his thing with 270 yards and 4 touchdowns, becoming the youngest and fastest to 250 passing touchdowns. He only took one sack, and even Jawaan Taylor stayed away from the penalty flags this week.
But what about the defense? People are going to point to Baltimore’s numerous injuries on defense, but that offense still had Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry, Zay Flowers, Rashod Bateman, Mark Andrews, Justice Hill, DeAndre Hopkins, and even Isaiah Likely made his season debut. Left tackle Ronnie Stanley started and left the game early with an injury, but he did play some.
Lamar also played three quarters before a mysterious hamstring injury ended his day. Honestly, I think he saw the score and tapped out. The Ravens were down three scores, he was not playing well with multiple turnovers and mistakes against Kansas City’s relentless blitzing pressure. He may have tweaked something with the hamstring, but I think he finishes that game if they were within 10 points any other week. I think he made a business decision and probably the right one.
But the Ravens (1-3) lost yet another game to the Chiefs to the point where I can’t believe they still have better odds (+750 at FanDuel) to win the Super Bowl than the Chiefs (+1000). Even if you think they still win the AFC North and get this thing fixed defensively, how can you watch them lose to the Bills, Lions, and Chiefs and think they can beat these kinds of teams in January and February?
That has to be the worst part about this 1-3 start for Baltimore. It just doesn’t look like the team in its current form has what it takes to win a championship.
The Chiefs outclassed them on both sides of the ball, and you can see the impact getting some stops and takeaways does with short fields as the Chiefs feasted on those for their best scoring day since Week 3 of 2023 against Chicago, the Taylor Swift debut game.
You just have to laugh at the people who were ready to bury this team after losing two one-score games to the Chargers and Eagles. Meanwhile, they scoffed last week when they “only beat the Giants.” Want to remind me what the Chargers did against the Giants on Sunday? Or how this one is “Baltimore sucks now” when in Week 1, it was “Buffalo’s incredible comeback” that headlined Week 1. I think kicking a team’s ass is better than needing a 15-point 4QC. How about you?
You still have to beat the Chiefs to get to the Super Bowl in the AFC. And you have to do it in January. As crazy as it sounds a week ago when the Chiefs were playing such a sloppy first half at MetLife, this team still has a chance to be stronger than the past two years if they can stay healthy at wideout once Rice returns and if the defense can build on these last three games with the pressure they’re getting.
Bet against them at your own risk.
Packers at Cowboys: Micah, Micah, Bottle of Ink
Torn up by the negative thoughts I have over ties in the NFL, especially when they’re historic ones like a 40-40 score. You watched it too, so it’s not like I need to go over Green Bay’s shoddy clock management on the final overtime possession, almost costing themselves a chance to kick that field goal for the tie. That was bad on Matt LaFleur.
But I think you have to give the Cowboys credit for stepping up on Micah Parsons night. The only sack Dak Prescott took all night was on 2nd-and-goal in overtime with Parsons barely getting him on a scramble attempt for no gain. That’s pretty good protection for Dallas. George Pickens also stepped up as the WR1 in CeeDee Lamb’s absence with 8/134/2. Hard to believe this offense only scored 14 points in Chicago while it puts up 40 at home for the second time this year.
Some of the clock management and the fumble before halftime were bad for Jordan Love, but overall, he did well. The Packers scored on their last five drives, but it’s still technically the second game in a row they didn’t win after leading by double digits (13-0). Another blocked kick (extra point) going back for 2 points. That sucked and turned the tide.
The only other thing I can really say is the NFL screwed the pooch when it made overtime 10 minutes instead of just using 15 like it was for decades. Give them 15:00 and I bet you ties would decline. This is the first one since 2022, so it was nice to get a few years without one as I hate the way these screw with my databases.
Plus it’s just so unfulfilling, especially for a game like this that has importance in the NFC. But overall, I think it was a better night for Dallas than Green Bay since the Cowboys were the 6.5-point underdog without their best weapon.
Eagles at Buccaneers: “We Can’t Keep Getting Away with This,” Said A.J. Brown
So, the Eagles were on their bullshit again on Sunday. Don’t get me wrong; they dominated the first half in Tampa, taking a 24-3 lead on a blocked punt return touchdown and some easy flip passes from Jalen Hurts to Dallas Goedert. The only thing the Bucs could celebrate early was Chase McLaughlin’s 65-yard field goal, the longest in NFL history in an outdoor venue.
But that second half? That turned into the joke of an Eagles offense that hasn’t been able to get the ball down the field. In fact, Hurts was 0-for-8 passing after halftime. Their only touchdown after the half was a 25-yard drive set up by a Bucky Irving fumble, and Saquon Barkley scored on a fake Tush Push play. So, the Eagles were very creative at times on Sunday, but they weren’t putting the game away offensively at all.
Meanwhile, I think the Buccaneers lost because they were missing Mike Evans, and the connection from Baker Mayfield to Chris Godwin was too rusty in Godwin’s first game back in a long time. Baker was 3-of-10 for 26 yards to Godwin. I think if you get these teams in the playoffs with Baker having his full weapons, they could beat them again as he still had 289 yards and long touchdown plays to Irving and Emeka Egbuka (again the rookie delivered).
But this week when Baker needed to deliver his latest miracle and bring the Bucs all the way back from a 21-point deficit, he got way too dangerous on a first-down play and was picked in the end zone with half a quarter to go. Then they were snuffed out on their last drive this week as the Eagles held on for a 4-0 start.
The Eagles finally got a win over Tampa again, but between this team and the Rams last week, I see a beatable team in Philly. Then you have A.J. Brown leaving cryptic messages online after the game since he’s not getting his numbers, and I’m not sure this team is built for the long haul.
For replacing the Kansas City dynasty with one of their own. They have some issues they need to work out.
Chargers at Giants: When Chargering Meets MetLife Stadium
Welp, MetLife Stadium took out Malik Nabers (torn ACL) and Joe Alt (ankle). Those are huge injuries, and the fact that each team had to deal with one on offense makes me think it evened out on the injury front for this game, and the Chargers still should have been able to find a way to beat a rookie quarterback in his first start.
But Jaxson Dart had some nice runs, including a 15-yard score on his first drive. He definitely brought some energy to this team, even if it’s going to be hard going forward to throw the ball without Nabers.
Justin Herbert played his worst game of the year, but maybe that’s to be expected when you lose both tackles and are facing a team with some great pass rushers. But I was still disappointed that he couldn’t get into field goal range late in the game despite multiple opportunities.
The Chargers also wasted several of the best runs Omarion Hampton’s had all year, so it’s not like the offensive line was worthless in this game. He had 128 yards, including a 54-yard touchdown run. Maybe the Chargers should have leaned on him more than 12 carries while Herbert threw it 41 times with 2 sacks. But he also had two interceptions.
It’s a really bad loss on a day where the Chiefs found their mojo again offensively. The Chargers still hold an edge in odds to win the AFC West, but this game shows you still can’t trust them not to go Chargering their way through any game.
Colts at Rams: Puka Nacua >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Adonai Mitchell
I could have added more greater than symbols too. But Puka Nacua is a great example of how the draft is an inexact science. Who knew a fifth-round pick from BYU would become the most dominant receiver of his class and arguably the best in the game right now? He’s always open and Sunday may have been his best game yet as he had 13 catches for 170 yards and a game-tying touchdown on fourth down.
Meanwhile, the Colts used a second-round pick last year on Adonai Mitchell, the Texas wideout who didn’t have the record-setting 40-yard dash time; that was teammate Xavier Worthy. But Mitchell was thought to be a promising pro too.
However, his rookie season was nothing impressive, and he wasn’t doing much in three games for Indy this year either despite the incredible year Daniel Jones is putting together. But on Sunday in LA, Mitchell made his mark in the worst way yet as he did the dumbest play a football player can do: The early celebration where you fumble the ball before you broke the plane:
Blows my mind every time that someone can be this careless and dumb. To make matters worse, Mitchell was called for holding to wipe out a 53-yard touchdown run by Jonathan Taylor that would have put the Colts up 27-20 with 2:15 left. Instead, they punted and Matthew Stafford found Tutu Atwell for an 88-yard touchdown. Jones ended the game with his second interception, but not before Mitchell cost this offense two touchdowns.
Just goes to show how important it is to draft the right receiver. Or avoid drafting the wrong one. That stood out as the main difference in this one to me.
With the win, Stafford becomes just the fourth quarterback with 40 fourth-quarter comeback wins.
Steelers vs. Vikings: Mike Tomlin, Surely You Jest?
When it was 24-6 Steelers with 11:18 left, I thought wow, the Steelers haven’t played a game this good since December 2023 when they crushed the Bengals on a Saturday at home. I usually am never this far off about one of their games as I predicted a Minnesota win.
Then the rest of those 11 minutes played out, and yeah, that’s why I picked Minnesota. The Vikings may have won if they didn’t have so many negative plays early with the backup linemen getting blitzed to hell and Carson Wentz took six sacks and threw some picks because of the heat. Most NFL offenses would not survive that many losses up front.
Which is why it’s so absurd that the Vikings were so close to taking this one to overtime where anything could happen, including a tie. I hope people saw firsthand how bad Mike Tomlin’s decision making can be for a coach who preaches about “not living in your fears” as much as he does.
The offense practically had to beg him to go for a 4th-and-goal at the 3 with 4:14 left while leading 24-14. That should be a no-brainer decision in 2025. You go for it to make it a 3-score game (31-14), because a field goal keeps it a 2-score game (27-14) and leaves you very open to losing by a point. Then if you don’t get it, the upside is they have 97 yards to go.
Except the problem is the Steelers called a basic run and were stopped at the 1-yard line. You have to let Aaron Rodgers, who played a very solid game, throw there. Three plays later, Carson Wentz hit Jordan Addison for an 81-yard pass to the 1-yard line, and I’m still not sure how he didn’t score there. That was arguably the play of the game as linebacker Payton Wilson made an incredible tackle that cost the Vikings over a full minute on the clock.
Instead of scoring with 3:13 left, the Vikings didn’t score until 2:08 remained. That’s huge. Wilson was moving faster than any linebacker we’ve seen in the NGS era.
Then in a 24-21 game, the Steelers had two plays to get a yard at the Minnesota 40 and end it. They could have did the Tush Push again with huge tight end Darnell Washington under center. But after getting stuffed, the Steelers took a delay of game and punted instead of getting inches to end the game on offense. Are you kidding me?
Fortunately, they were playing Wentz, who tried to give it away immediately with a dropped pick, then a grounding penalty really did them in. For the third win this season, the Steelers had to stop a fourth-down pass attempt and did to end the threat.
The early bye probably comes at a good time to get healthy. With the state of the AFC North, I’m a bit surprised the Ravens are still -220 to win it while the Steelers are only +300. Seems like decent value on the Steelers to me. The Ravens can get better on defense, but the Steelers have plenty of room for improvement too. And we know the Ravens haven’t swept this team in a long time.
Big win for the Steelers. I really didn’t expect it after how good Minnesota was last week and how much of a struggle Brian Flores had Rodgers going through a year ago in London with the Jets.
Browns at Lions: Respect for the Cleveland Defense
The Lions cruised to a 34-10 win, but I have to say the Cleveland defense is the best in the game this year. The Packers got exposed last night, and don’t let the 34 points fool you here in Detroit. The Lions had a punt return touchdown, so that’s already 27 points instead of 34 by the offense.
Then the Lions had a 16-yard field goal drive off a bad Joe Flacco interception, a 5-yard touchdown drive before the half thanks to another Flacco pick, and a 20-yard touchdown drive in the fourth quarter following a Flacco fumble.
Jahmyr Gibbs ran the ball respectably, but the Lions finished with 277 yards and 4.9 yards per play. You just can’t expect to beat a team when you’re gifting them field position like this, which his why Cleveland lost badly to the Ravens in Week 2.
We’re at the point where I don’t think Flacco gives them any upside. Might as well see what the rookie can do. The Oregon rookie first, I mean.
Jaguars at 49ers: Steal This Win
I find it very amusing the “Duuuuuval” coach, Liam Coen, tried to go Will Smith at the Oscars on Robert Saleh, who would likely destroy him in a physical confrontation. All over a perceived sleight about “signal stealing” this week.
But on the field, Coen’s team got the best of Saleh’s defense. More accurately, the Jacksonville defense shined more than the 49ers’ defense by winning the turnover battle 4-0. Trevor Lawrence wasn’t sacked once and Travis Etienne rushed for 124 yards, including a 48-yard touchdown.
While Brock Purdy returned, I think the two weeks away hurt his timing. He was off on a throw he forced to CMC, and that led to a tipped interception. Late in the game, down 26-21, Purdy lost the ball on a strip-sack and the Jaguars were able to get one first down and run out the clock.
Big statement win for Jacksonville (3-1) with the Chiefs up next. Tough first loss for the 49ers.
Saints at Bills: Ho-Hum, You Know Who Won
I was surprised Buffalo (-15.5) struggled so much with New Orleans at home, especially after opening the game with touchdowns. But Josh Allen threw an interception that ended the team’s streak of 8 games without a giveaway, leaving them tied with the 2024 Chiefs for the longest streak in NFL history. At least this one was more of an “arm punt” than the last one in December against the Patriots.
But the Saints hung in this one thanks to a dominant running game that produced 189 yards and 5.6 YPC. I can already hear the Buffalo fans claiming the immortal Matt Milano and Ed Oliver, who didn’t play, will fix this. But I have eyes. Those guys played in Week 1 when the Ravens were popping 10 yards per play on them before Derrick Henry’s big fumble changed things. I think it’s fair to say the Bills have some run defense issues.
The Saints may have even won this one if they didn’t force a red zone interception on a Philly Special kind of trick play, not to mention Spencer Rattler being just off on a wide-open touchdown pass to Brandin Cooks in the end zone.
Instead of taking a lead on that Cooks play, they settled for a field goal to trail 21-19, then the Bills put the game away on both sides of the ball. They even got a fourth-quarter scoring drive extended by a roughing the punter penalty for the second game in a row.
But I’m glad people are starting to catch on to just how sweet of a deal the schedule has been for the Bills this year. Their first four opponents are currently 1-13 with only Baltimore getting a win over Cleveland. Someone will get a win Monday night between the Jets and Dolphins, so these teams have just one win combined when they’re not playing each other or Buffalo.
Bears at Raiders: Classic Pete Carroll Close Game Carnage
Wild game that ended in classic Chicago fashion with a blocked field goal to secure the W. Some thoughts:
- Geno Smith’s decision making just isn’t any good right now as he threw another 3 picks.
- What if the key to unlocking Boise State Ashton Jeanty was to just let him do his upright stance in the backfield? He exploded for 155 yards and 3 TDs.
- I don’t really mind Ben Johnson staring down Aditi after halftime like he was the T-1000 asking kids at the food court about John Connor’s whereabouts. She can be annoying.
- Not a bad job by Caleb Williams hanging in there, but you gotta make that 2PC at the end as it’s just too easy for an opponent to get into field goal range now.
Bailed out by a blocked kick. Just like something the 2001, 2006, or 2010 Bears would appreciate.
Titans at Texans: A New Contender for First Coach Fired
Unless Mike McDaniel embarrasses himself in Miami on Monday night and gets fired, we have to consider Brian Callahan as the next NFL coach who could go in Tennessee. This guy has shown us nothing in 21 games (3-18) and apparently, he’s on the verge of a meltdown.
He gave up play-calling duties this week and his team scored zero points. It was actually a 6-0 game with Houston going into the fourth quarter, but then the Texans poured it on while the Titans kept giving up short fields for them to do so. Just a mess of a team right now that’s doing no favors for Cam Ward.
Never liked the Callahan hire. Classic cronyism/nepotism among the coaching ranks. As someone who doesn’t like Zac Taylor either, I don’t know why you’d go barking up that tree for your big hire. What, because his dad coached a Super Bowl decades ago and was dumb enough to let Jon Gruden know everything he was going to run on offense with Rich Gannon?
Commanders at Falcons: No Marcus Mariota Revenge Game
This was more like the game I expected last week for Washington without Jayden Daniels. The defense having a letdown and the offense not doing enough. The Atlanta offense responded very well from that Carolina shutout with big games on the ground and through the air with Michael Penix.
Washington trailed for the last 50 minutes and never could get within one score and possession of the ball in the final quarter and a half. Tough ask of Mariota with Terry McLaurin also out.
But this is more of the Atlanta I had in mind as my preseason division pick.
Panthers at Patriots: Early TKO
My favorite pick for this game was Patriots over 24.5 points, but I didn’t expect them to get there by halftime. So much for winning a division game 30-0 last week. The Panthers looked more lost than they did the first two games this season, getting beat in every phase as Drake Maye carved them up with a post-ACL Stefon Diggs, Bryce Young was ineffective, and the special teams were huge for NE again.
Just an old-school 42-13 squashing at Gillette Stadium, something we haven’t seen much this decade.
Next week: 49ers-Rams on TNF has lost some luster with the way the 49ers are playing. I’ll set my alarm about 20 minutes earlier than usual for Browns-Vikings in London (meh). I think it’s a pretty weak Sunday schedule where Bucs-Seahawks and Commanders-Chargers (with Jayden Daniels back) will have to save it in the late window. Patriots at Bills has more TNF than SNF vibes but we’ll see what Josh Allen Jr. can do for the Pats. Chiefs-Jags on Monday night might actually be the most interesting game here.
Captain Comeback: NFL Analysis by Scott Kacsmar 