Tag: Mike Tomlin

2025 NFL Stat Oddity: Week 14

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

I said Sunday could prove to be a franchise-altering day in the AFC, and I think the results speak for themselves.

  • The Colts (8-5) have likely gone from 7-1 and the No. 1 seed to out of the playoffs after losing to the Jaguars again and losing Daniel Jones to a torn Achilles.
  • The Bengals (4-9) blew a snow game in Buffalo that should absolutely give the team the green light to fire Zac Taylor and his entire staff after Joe Burrow and company will miss the playoffs for a third-straight season.
  • The Ravens (6-7) lost at home to the Steelers (7-6), and while the AFC North is hardly decided, Baltimore still has to play the Patriots and Packers (teams competing for No. 1 seeds), and teams they just lost to at home (Bengals and Steelers on the road). If there was ever a season to force John Harbaugh out of town…
  • The Chiefs (6-7) couldn’t finish another close game against a good team and are on life support for the playoffs, needing to win out and for the Colts and Chargers to lose multiple games (actually not that unrealistic). But with how this year has gone, they’d be foolish not to make some major changes for 2026 as their AFC West reign is over and so may be their playoff streak.

I just wrote earlier this week how we’re trying to make sense of the new contenders this year and the unprecedented decline of so many contenders at once.  However, saying teams like the Bengals, Ravens, and Chiefs (Steelers too) need to make big changes for 2026 is not an overreaction to one off year. There have been things festering for multiple years there, and with the teams in dire situations going into Week 15, maybe they’ll finally realize something has to change.

As for the rest of Week 14, a lot of the games were duds as we’ve only had six comeback opportunities. In fact, the only double-digit comeback win of the last two weeks was the Bills over Bengals today, and the only fourth-quarter lead change on Sunday was Joe Burrowing throwing that pick-six in Buffalo.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Texans at Chiefs: Game of the Day

You have to give the 2025 Chiefs credit. If this was their last stand for the playoffs, and that’ll look increasingly likely if the Chargers win on Monday night, then they gave the home crowd all the greatest hits to their season:

  • An embarrassing pass rush when they didn’t blitz, leaving numerous receivers wide open on third-and-longs.
  • No takeaways on defense again.
  • Harrison Butker had about the loudest doink ever on a missed 42-yard field goal.
  • Limited touches for Brashard Smith (a 7-yard run) and Tyquan Thornton (19 yards but also had a touchdown bomb knocked away in the end zone) despite showing solid play.
  • Remember when the first pass of the season was Travis Kelce running into Xavier Worthy in Brazil? The first pass here saw backup left tackle Wanya Morris suffer a game-ending injury, leaving the offensive line without three starters and placing a third-string left tackle (UDFA rookie) in his NFL debut against the No. 1 defense.
  • Mahomes led the team in rushing with 59 yards (they’re 0-4 this year when that happens).
  • Season on the line, a pass from Mahomes went right off of Kelce’s hands for an interception (third time this year).

But there were a couple wrinkles in this performance that made it stand out as the worst loss of them all this season for the Chiefs: Aggression inconsistency and dropped passes.

The Chiefs, even going back to last year, have made a habit of playing games with limited possessions, usually getting 8-9 drives a week, the lowest total in the NFL. This makes it harder on the offense as every mistake gets magnified, but they made it work better last year with clutch plays to close out one-score games. The exact kind of plays they keep failing on this year.

But this game was different. The Chiefs had a season-high 13 possessions as each team had the ball 13 times. That’s because there were a lot of three-and-out drives and quick stops. It wasn’t a game with limited possessions, so the Chiefs could stand to make some mistakes here as the defense played well even after losing top corner Trent McDuffie early.

That’s why Andy Reid’s fourth-down decision making didn’t make any sense. He let the Dallas game beat him twice, because he was criticized in that one for a fourth-down punt in a shootout with Dallas. But this wasn’t a shootout. It was a grind with C.J. Stroud playing ice cold in the second half.

Reid let the offense go for a 4th-and-1 that led to a 2-yard Kareem Hunt touchdown in the third quarter. They needed the touchdown, so that was fine. But two drives later, why settle for the 36-yard field goal on 4th-and-2 at the 18 to tie the game with 1:50 left in the third? Why not be consistent and go for it again with your offense starting to move it well and the defense playing so well? You were getting possessions.

Then the real head-scratcher: 4th-and-1 at your own 31 in a 10-10 game with 10:22 left. The Texans just punted on a 4th-and-1 at their own 35, because they knew what kind of game this was. Why didn’t Reid understand it? Instead, he let the offense go for it, and Mahomes’ pass to Rashee Rice was defended tightly by Stingley, and I couldn’t tell if it was another defensed-dropped or what. But it was a turnover on downs either way.

Now a struggling Houston offense was set up 31 yards away from the end zone, and that gave the Texans new life to get a go-ahead touchdown, which they did. That decision largely killed the Chiefs in this game.

Then in getting the ball back in a 17-10 game, Reid basically did it again, going for a 4th-and-4 at his own 41 where failure almost likely leads to a 10-point deficit with under 5:00 left. Game over against this defense. And once again, Mahomes’ pass to Rice was flat out dropped.

Surprisingly, Houston went three-and-out after that one, giving Mahomes another chance from 92 yards away and 3:44 left. After a short drop by Kelce on first down, Mahomes threw a pass that should have been a first down to him that went off his hands and right to the defense for the third pick of the night. The second one to start the fourth quarter was an arm punt on third down out of FG range and out of 4-down territory, but this one hurt and it’s something Kelce has done three times this year to Mahomes – none bigger than here.

That one was the dagger as the Texans used up most of the clock to add a field goal for a 20-10 lead with 0:30 left. From there, it was just two stat-padding completions to avoid Mahomes finishing a full game with under 150 passing yards for the first time in his career. It was the first time he threw for 3 interceptions and no touchdowns.

But look what it took to get there. Three linemen out, the backup LT going out on play 1, the No. 1 defense on the other side, and a career-high 8 or 9 drops depending how you want to count some of those plays. Those drops combined with some really poor fourth-down decision making by Reid were actually far more damaging to the game than the backup offensive line was. This wasn’t Super Bowl 55 or Super Bowl 59 all over again with constant pass rush.

This was receivers not getting open against good coverage, then when they did, not completing plays as Mahomes has never had this many drops in one game. Just a ridiculous effort in the biggest game of the year for this team.

If this was Kelce’s last playoff-contention type of game in his NFL career, he finishes it with more drops (2) than catches (1) for the first time in his career. I’d say Mahomes might be a little happy on the downlow if Kelce chooses to retire and marry the most famous woman in the world. But then when you tell me Rice, who dropped a big third-and-8 in Dallas last week in a similar clutch situation, is supposed to be his next top target, I think the Chiefs are in some long-term trouble if they don’t sort this out.

On a cold night with both teams feeling the playoff pressure, the Texans stepped up and the Chiefs did not.

Fight or flight. The 2018-24 Chiefs had it in them to get it done in these games. The 2025 Chiefs simply do not, and the shame of it all is people will look at a game like this and still blame it all on the quarterback.

As for the Texans, they have hands down the best defense in the league this season. They were also very good in 2024, so we know this isn’t a fluke. They’ve been to the playoffs the last two years, got to the divisional round both times, and if they keep playing like this, they just might be able to win out until the Super Bowl in this weakened AFC. They might be the closest team we’ve seen to the 2015 Broncos from a decade ago, and yes, Davis Mills did his Brock Osweiler-level job of saving the season with some big wins over the Jags and Bills.

From 0-3 to 8-5, DeMeco Ryans and company deserve a lot of credit for this turnaround. As for Reid and the Chiefs, they aren’t mathematically eliminated, but it sure looks dire even if collapses by the Chargers (see schedule) and Colts (Jones/schedule) are not improbable at all.

What’s improbable is thinking the 2025 Chiefs can ever get through four straight wins without screwing up a game. They haven’t done it all year, and I no longer expect them to.

It’s a lost season.

Steelers at Ravens: The Rivalry Continues, Same As It Ever Was

This may be a selfish reason to want the continued employment of Mike Tomlin and John Harbaugh for these teams, but would the Steelers vs. Ravens rivalry be the same without them? Like, imagine these teams go in the opposite direction and hire some dorks trying to cosplay as Kyle Shanahan and Sean McVay. It just wouldn’t be the same and what makes this such a great rivalry filled with hard-fought, close games.

You can always throw out the records and spreads when these teams play. Did it matter that both played like shit at home in big losses last week where they turned it over and the quarterbacks were brutal? Nope, you ended up with a 27-22 thriller between two multi-time MVPs at quarterback in their first ever meeting.

Aaron Rodgers turned 42 this week but he looked as good as he has all season. He hit a deep ball to DK Metcalf on his first pass after going an entire month without a pass completed over 20 yards down the field. I want to say he had four in this game alone. He also scored his first rushing touchdown in over four years on a third-down scramble. His movement looked much better this week as if he got a Lazarus Pit to celebrate his 42nd birthday.

Then again, the Baltimore defense has been known to help quarterbacks perk up as Rodgers passed for a season-high 284 yards while taking no sacks. He also had no running game as the Steelers finished with 15 carries for 34 yards for him. Meanwhile, the Ravens rushed for 217 yards in the loss, producing this hilarious statistic about losing a game with a huge rushing margin:

That’s Steelers vs. Ravens in the 2020s for you. More accurately, that’s the Lamar Jackson era as to this day you still have to question Jackson’s arm and ability in games like this, another big one with first place in the AFC North on the line and the Ravens having a tougher remaining schedule.

Jackson won his last two starts against the Steelers in 2024, but his rest of career numbers and moments have been poor to say the least. In this game, he didn’t break 100 passing yards until the fourth quarter as the Ravens were leaning on the ground game with Derrick Henry and Keaton Mitchell also broke a 55-yard run.

There were some bright moments for Jackson in the fourth quarter, but the Ravens never put it together for a touchdown drive while the Steelers floundered on offense late. There was a go-ahead touchdown to Isaiah Likely that was ruled a drop after Joey Porter Jr. helped knock the ball out before Likely got a third foot down or did a football move. That was a tough call without great clarity from the NFL on what a catch is in 2025.

That drive ended in no points, because after the Likely mistake on first down, the Steelers stopped Henry twice, then Mark Andrews possibly got in the way of a Jackson pass on fourth down intended for DeAndre Hopkins in the back of the end zone with 2:22 left.

But given one more chance with 1:56 left and 74 yards to go, Jackson led a very poor two-minute drill, taking 69 seconds just to move the ball 8 yards. Reaching the Pittsburgh 30 with 9 seconds left, any shot at a Hail Mary was denied when Alex Highsmith sacked Jackson to end the game and give the Steelers a 7-6 record and first place.

The Ravens have struggled to play complementary football all season, and Sunday was no different. Pittsburgh finally won a big game this year without relying on a ton of turnovers on defense. Rodgers was excellent for three quarters, and if Likely wasn’t in a funk with the end zone, it may have been wasted again by the defense.

But the Steelers have been getting the best of this rivalry, especially when the games are at their closest. That’s also why I had full confidence in Pittsburgh still finishing with a winning record, because I knew they’d never get swept by Baltimore, especially not this Baltimore team.

Now we’ll see if they can build on this win and take advantage of a home game with Miami next week. Maybe even get a break with the Bengals possibly sweeping Baltimore on Sunday to create more separation.

But the sportsbooks have finally come around to making the Steelers the favorites (-160 at FanDuel) to win the AFC North over Baltimore (+170) and Cincinnati (+1300). There’s a reason almost every 1-5 team fails to come all the way back to make the playoffs.

The Ravens are just too mistake prone this year. Similar to the Chiefs in that regard, another team in the AFC they can’t seem to beat when they have to.

Bears at Packers: Ben Johnson Was Right Again

Ever since the Bears hired coach Ben Johnson, he has done an incredible job of saying the right things time and time again. He just probably wishes he wasn’t right when he said last week that the 9-3 Bears are winning in spite of their passing game with Caleb Williams.

On Sunday in Green Bay with the No. 1 seed on the line and the lead in the NFC North, Johnson was very prescient as Williams struggled mightily early on while Jordan Love had some key passes down the field for big plays (including third downs) that paced the Packers to numerous leads in a game they never trailed.

But Williams did make some of his best plays late, and even tied the game in the fourth quarter before the Packers marched for a game-winning touchdown. I predicted a 27-20 win by Green Bay, and they were up 28-21 late with Williams driving for what could have been his sixth comeback in the final 2:00 this year as you had to think Johnson probably goes for 2 on the road the way he is from the Dan Campbell school of thought.

But after the run got stuffed on 3rd-and-1, Williams blew a good play call with a bad throw on fourth down and it was intercepted in the end zone to end the game. Just like that, the Bears (9-4) fell from the No. 1 to the No. 7 seed.

These teams will meet again in 12 days, but Williams is going to need to be a lot more efficient if the Bears are going to get a split here.

Bengals at Bills: Mr. Perfect Until He Has to Be

I can say this about most quarterbacks, but Joe Burrow is actually more likeable than his annoying fans make him out to be. Watching him on those shows like Quarterback S2 or Hard Knocks In-Season with the AFC North, you can see he’s a football junkie, a Batman fan, and just wants to win games. This league is also in need of a pocket passer who can still frequently throw for 300 yards and multiple touchdowns without being a play-action merchant.

But where things get annoying with Burrow is the nonstop nicknames and the way the media has shoved him into conversations he doesn’t belong, or pretended that he’s a clutch player. I saw the “Joe Brrr” notification from the NFL app before Sunday’s snow game in Buffalo, and it was just earlier this week where I again pointed out that Burrow and his top wide receiver duo simply don’t win games in the clutch or shootouts despite being the most expensive trio in NFL history.

Burrow also has just one comeback win in the final 8:00 of a game in his career, and Sunday was no different. My other issues with Burrow stem from him being a sack merchant, often getting into trouble by looking for the big play. It should go against his nature as a perfectionist, which I think gets him into trouble in games where things don’t go well. He’ll let it snowball and not recover from a big mistake.

It all happened again on Sunday when Burrow went from playing a really fine game in Buffalo in the snow with four touchdowns on the first six drives. It was like he picked right up where he left off with his success against the Bills in 2022-23.

But one fateful pass from the Buffalo 33 with 5:35 left, leading 28-25, changed everything for the Bengals. Burrow tried to throw a quick pass, did a weird shot-put delivery on it, and Christian Benford was there for the 63-yard pick-six to put the Bills ahead 32-28.

Is Burrow so sick of me pointing out he has one comeback win in the last 8:00 that he tried to create a situation for himself to succeed? Then on the very next play, he got picked again on a battled ball at the line. The Bills took over at the Cincinnati 29, and of course Josh Allen, who got Dalton Kincaid back at a good time, was going to take advantage of the No. 32 defense on a short field by throwing another touchdown on fourth down.

Burrow answered quickly with his fourth touchdown pass to cut it to 39-34 with 2:13 left. That drive is another example of why stats that ignore the scoreboard show Burrow doing well in this situation when it was the two drives before this that mattered more when he had the picks.

But even after his defense sacked Allen to bring up 3rd-and-15, they gave up another 17-yard scramble to Allen, who also took off for a 40-yard touchdown earlier with inexplicably no defender in sight of his path to the end zone.

This was a very winnable game for the Bengals on the road to keep their season alive, but Burrow picked the worst time to make his worst play of the year. He crumbled instead of finishing the game, and given his history, it’s not that surprising.

He’s just not proven to be a closer yet, and this will be his third-straight missed postseason.

I still contend this is the worst Buffalo team since 2019, but if this is an AFC where they don’t have to worry about the Chiefs at all, don’t have to worry about going to Baltimore, and don’t have to worry about these Bengals, then Allen has no excuses left to not get to a Super Bowl.

Letting Drake Maye, Bo Nix, Trevor Lawrence, or C.J. Stroud get there before Allen does would be disastrous to his legacy.

Colts at Jaguars: Indiana Is Cursed in 2025

I was all in on the Jaguars to win this one despite being a 1.5-point home underdog. But you have to see Daniel Jones tear his Achilles on a different leg than the one he had the fractured fibula with. I’m not a doctor, so I can’t comment if that may have led to this the way Tyrese Haliburton’s calf injury led to his Achilles in the NBA Finals, but it’s just been that kind of cursed year for Indiana sports teams. Caitlin Clark also had a season-ending groin injury in a year her Fever had a shot in the playoffs.

The Colts would have had a shot in this AFC if they were healthy, but between Jones going down and Sauce Gardner getting injured shortly after they traded for him, it’s been a brutal stretch for the Colts. From 7-1 to 8-5 and little hope with that tough schedule left.

Worse, they don’t even have a healthy (even if temporarily healthy) Anthony Richardson to go to and see if he can give them anything for the playoff run. They might have to snag Joe Flacco away from the Bengals somehow.

But give credit to the Jaguars. They scored a lot of points on short fields set up by the defense like they’ve been doing this year. I actually think they can get to 12-5 given the schedule, which includes another game with battered Indy.

Crazy how you can go from 7-1 and averaging over 3.0 points per drive to potentially finishing with a losing record and an offense that’s barely top 10, if that, when you consider the Colts have to play the Seahawks, 49ers, Jaguars, and Texans.

Saints at Buccaneers: Tyler Shough Can Move Like That?

With all due respect to Taysom Hill, I don’t think your services are needed anymore in New Orleans. If Tyler Shough can move like that on his two rushing touchdowns in Tampa Bay, then there’s no reason he can’t keep the ball on some of those snaps they give to Hill.

Shough’s second touchdown run also completed the first game-winning drive of his NFL career as the Saints (+8.5) completed the 24-17 upset on the road despite the Bucs having more healthy weapons for Baker Mayfield, who struggled in this one.

But I would still argue Tampa Bay pissed this one away more than the Saints won it. Tampa Bay finished 2-of-7 on fourth down, so when you get 11 drives and end five of them on fourth down (plus one pick), that’s really brutal offense, and it’s not like these were 4th-and-desperate situations late in the game.

I don’t know if Todd Bowles wanted a bow with his points to take them, or if he thought this was the right strategy as these were the five fourth-down failures:

  • 1Q, tied 7-7, 4th-and-1 at NO 45: Bucky Irving lost 7 yards on a run.
  • 2Q, up 10-7, 4th-and-1 at NO 49: Tucker stuffed for no gain on a run.
  • 2Q, up 10-7, 4th-and-15 at NO 47: Mayfield incomplete pass (I guess they weren’t confident in the 65-yard field goal in the conditions)
  • 4Q, tied 17-17, 4th-and-2 at NO 46: Mayfield incomplete pass to Godwin (Saints drove for game-winning touchdown from there).
  • 4Q, down 24-20, 4th-and-4 at TB 26: Mayfield 3-yard pass to Cade Otton for a turnover on downs to end game.

The last one is obvious, the one before halftime makes sense given the field position, I guess. But those three short ones at midfield, out of field goal range, and not in a bad situation on the scoreboard? Might have been able to argue they should punt there and put the rookie QB on a long field.

The Buccaneers and Panthers are both 7-6 with two matchups to come. This thing is far from over in the NFC South if the Bucs are going to keep playing with their food like this.

Commanders at Vikings: For Who, For What?

I’ll never understand what the Commanders were doing with Jayden Daniels in 2025. He had a few injuries as a rookie, but his elbow injury this year was not necessary as it happened after Dan Quinn kept him in a blowout against Seattle far too long.

Then given this team was 3-9 and hadn’t won since Week 5, what’s the point of even playing him again this year? He returned Sunday, he was rusty against a complex defense, and he re-injured his elbow on an interception return play. Now they’ll probably sit him for the rest of the year, but he should have been on the bench in the Seattle blowout and this elbow stuff never should have happened.

You have to protect your best asset. I’m not sure Quinn makes it to 2026 as the defense didn’t get any better despite that being the side they needed to fix desperately. Now the offense is messed up as well.

Seahawks at Falcons: Road Warriors Strike Again

This was actually a 6-6 game at halftime before the Seahawks blew it open in the third quarter with Rashid Shaheed scoring his first Seattle touchdown on a 100-yard kickoff return, then a Bijan Robinson fumble led to the first of two JSN touchdown catches as the rout was on.

The Seahawks (10-3) have been strong on the road all year, and now they get to face the Colts without Daniel Jones before their huge Thursday night rematch with the Rams in Week 16 when they’ll have a chance to take the NFC West lead.

Broncos at Raiders: The Worst Beat of the Year

Given how horrible the Broncos were on offense in the 10-7 win against this team last month, you have to give them credit here. Granted, 7 of the 24 points were a punt return touchdown, but they only had 7 possessions in this game and they gained 81, 41, 47, 91, and 90 yards on the five drives that weren’t limited by the clock and situation at the end of each half. They were sustaining drives with ease.

Some bettors just wish they would have gained 4 more yards on their last snap, because that left enough time for the Raiders, who trailed 24-14 with as little as 0:05 left, get into field goal range after an absurd penalty for trying to stay on top of a receiver who was down extended the game one more down. Then Pete Carroll decided to kick the 46-yard field goal, it was good with 0:00 left, and the Raiders (+7.5) covered the spread in a ridiculous 24-17 final.

I’ve had a pretty good spread week (8-5 ATS), but that was definitely the worst beat of the season on one of these.

Rams at Cardinals: Someone’s Winning in Fantasy on These Cardinal Blowouts

You just know there’s someone out there winning their fantasy league or taking down DFS contests (they still run those, right?) by stacking Jacoby Brissett and Michael Wilson (11/142/2 on Sunday). All that sweet volume and very little real-life NFL value because they either get blown out like they did here to the Rams (45-17), or they come up short in the fourth quarter of a one-score loss.

But this one was the blowout as the Rams led 45-10 at one point. Big bounce-back effort after last week’s loss in Carolina.

Titans at Browns: Shedeur Gets Some Stats, Cam Ward Gets the Win

This Toilet Bowl between the Titans (1-11) and Browns (3-9) actually proved to be far more interesting and nuanced than most Week 14 games. I can’t believe I’m about to write as many words on a Week 14 game between these teams as I am.

It was in theory a matchup of what were supposed to be the top two quarterbacks in the 2025 draft before Shedeur Sanders fell to the fifth round. I knew he’d try to shine in this one against the worst team in football, and to some extent, he did. Sanders finished with 364 passing yards, 3 touchdown passes, 1 touchdown run, 1 interception, and he led a comeback attempt in the final 5:00 that came up a hideous 2-point conversion try short of tying the game.

Meanwhile, Cam Ward only completed 14-of-28 passes for 117 yards, 2 touchdowns, and one pick against that tough Cleveland defense. But Myles Garrett, much like last week against the 49ers, got the lone sack for the defense.

It was also another game where the rest of the team sold out the defense with poor field position as the Titans had touchdown drives of 53, 38, and 8 yards as well as a 6-yard field goal drive without a first down gained.

But late in the game with the Titans up 31-17 thanks to those short fields (and a big day for Tony Pollard with 161 yards and two scores), we saw the shortcomings of the new down 14 strategy that I was just questioning last week. What happens if a team misses both conversions and is still down 2 late? That’s what happened to Cleveland in large part because they called a weird trick play for the final one instead of letting Sanders do something more conventional.

Let’s just note that Cleveland scored that second touchdown with 1:03 left. That left plenty of time to recover an onside kick and win the field goal as I said teams will do in the NFL as  you can’t really time out when you get a touchdown. Then had the Browns made the first 2PC, if you score with 1:03 left, look at how much time that leaves the Titans to go get a game-winning field goal with the new kickoff rules and the improved range for kickers with the new k-balls. The same is true if they had only tied the game at 31.

So again, I understand why teams do the down 14 thing. I just don’t think it’s all that advantageous because of what it does to the game state. For one, I don’t like the prospects of having to convert a do-or-die 2PC at any point in the game, so I’d rather avoid that. Then if you get the first one and you’re down 6, that should trigger the opponent to try better to add to the lead or run out the clock than if they had the cushion of a 7-8 point lead. Then there’s the end-game scenario of taking a 1-point lead quite possibly with plenty of time for the other team to use 4-down football to set up a game-winning field goal.

Yeah, I’m just never going to be a big fan of that, and games like this make it look even less attractive to me. Going to overtime has never actually been less scary than it is now with the new rules there. There’s no real sudden death unless you majorly fuck up like a pick-six or safety on the first drive.

Alas, this was the Toilet Bowl, so it didn’t really matter what these teams did. Just a game with far more points – I believe the total closed at a season-low 33.0 – and intrigue than it ever deserved to have for Week 14.

Also, it’s going to make the Shedeur cult even crazier because he’s delivering the big plays they said he would in the NFL. Just don’t let them hear that some have been filled with YAC, or that he’s only done it against the two worst NFL teams this season (Vegas and Titans) and lost 26-8 to a San Francisco team that was missing its two best defenders.

Cults don’t like pesky facts like that.

Dolphins at Jets: The Streaks Continue

He didn’t have to do much in this one, but Tua Tagovailoa is now 7-0 as a starter against the Jets after the Dolphins quickly opened up a 21-0 lead and held on for the 34-10 win. The Jets were stuck playing UDFA rookie Brady Cook from Missouri after a Tyrod Taylor injury.

With the loss, the Jets (3-10) have been eliminated from the playoffs for the 15th season in a row, the longest active drought in the four major American sports leagues.

Next week: The Week 15 schedule is decent even if the island games are not. The Bucs need to pick things up at home against Atlanta on Thursday night. We’ll see a Baltimore-Cincy rematch from Thanksgiving that’s lost some luster with both losing Sunday. Chargers-Chiefs could be similar if the Chargers lose on Monday night. Bills-Patriots is the big one, and we’ll see if NE can win the AFC East or if Buffalo can try to repeat its 2021 success by coming back to beat them and eventually destroying them in the wild card.

Green Bay vs. Denver is decent for a non-conference game between possible No. 1 seeds. Lions at Rams might be more fun to watch for three quarters though. Colts should get rocked in Seattle. I’ll be writing this early while we’re stuck with Cowboys vs. Vikings on SNF. Steelers usually win at home on MNF, and Miami usually loses on the road under McDaniel to .500+ teams, but we’ll see how that one goes to end the week now that the Steelers will get props this week instead of being in that underdog role.

NFL 2025 Week 8 Predictions: The Mike Tomlin Special Edition

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

It’s a big bye week in Week 8 in the NFL with six teams off, and 8-of-13 games are AFC vs. NFC. We’ve already seen the Chargers turn in three hours of Carson Wentz torture porn on Thursday night, and it’s a surprise that game didn’t have a bigger spread given how banged up the Vikings were at QB and OT.

But you have eight games this week with a spread of 6.5 or bigger, so that could mean some big upsets are brewing. Frankly, nothing would surprise me with the way this season has gone.

However, I’ll be surprised if the Steelers don’t put in a good effort against Green Bay on Sunday night. Sure, there’s the Aaron Rodgers vs. Green Bay angle, but it’s also just what Mike Tomlin does. He’ll lose to the Bengals when he’s supposed to win, people cast doubt, then he comes back and beats the NFC team with the best record as an underdog and people jump back on board. Seen it for years.

I think there are schematic reasons for the Steelers to win too, including Rodgers getting the ball out fast to negate Micah Parsons, the Packers haven’t played well on the road, and you never know when Jordan Love will give you an ugly turnover.

This Week’s Articles

2025 NFL Quarterback Rankings Week 8: Patrick Mahomes Breaks PFF’s Grading System and Daniel Jones Joins Elite Company
Scott’s Seven NFL Picks: Week 8

I tackled the PFF grading joke this week in the QB rankings for Geno Smith vs. Patrick Mahomes. My Week 8 picks explain this week’s picks for PIT, KC, a Colts parlay, and a 5-leg touchdown scorer parlay. Also got a 3-leg teaser on lines I like for the Bills, Ravens, and Bengals.

NFL Week 8 Predictions

Props were a mess on TNF, but I had the Chargers all the way.

BUF-CAR: I really want to pick the Panthers to at least cover, but I just know the moment I do, Sean McDermott’s defense gets 3+ takeaways, Allen waxes that defense, Andy Dalton shits the bed, and the Bills win 30-13. But it is an upset alert game if Dalton can protect the ball, convert 3rd downs, the running backs go to work, and they’ll probably need a fumble recovery on defense. Still interested to watch this one.

NYJ-CIN: Does it matter who plays QB for the Jets? Technically, yes, because I would be more worried about Tyrod Taylor beating the Bengals than Justin Fields. But is Tyrod even healthy enough to be any good here? Is he any good in this particular offense? He still has some of the same shortcomings as Fields (4QC/GWD, untimely sacks). I’ll hedge on the Jets just to be safe.

.CHI-BAL: :Love the over more than anything, but I think Lamar returns and the team plays their best full game of the year.

CLE-NE: I don’t expect the Cleveland offense to do much here. Neither team is particularly great at running the ball.

SF-HOU: Liked the under 41.5 even before the WR injury news. Mentor vs. mentee game. Houston looked so terrible and still hung around with Seattle. Cautiously trusting that defense at home to make Mac Jones make mistakes and Houston gets a much-needed win.

MIA-ATL: Falcons should blow them out but who knows with a team that loses 30-0 in Carolina and beats Buffalo. Miami scores 20+ more often than you think with how bad Tua’s been, so I’ll go with the spread hedge.

NYG-PHI: Never had a good justification for Philly covering besides “they’re due to win by 8+” this year. Like it even less with A.J. Brown reportedly out. Hard to say subtracting Brown and adding Jalen Carter is going to turn a 17-point loss two weeks ago into a 8+ point win, but alas here we go with the pick. Because then I remembered the Giants lost 26-14 in New Orleans and gave up 33 points in the 4th quarter last week, so who the hell knows anything about these teams at this point? Maybe “Eagles win by 1-13” is the best pick here.

TB-NO: Baker bounces back. Not expecting a ton from NO here.

TEN-IND: I thought of taking Titans in a backdoor cover, but I really do think the Colts can score 38+ again. Can the Titans score 24+? I don’t see it yet.

DAL-DEN: Another one of the few close games we have here this week. I could see it going either way, but isn’t Denver contractually obligated to come back late against the NFC East this year? Denver at home by 1-3.

GB-PIT: Like I said, this is Tomlin in his element. Rodgers will play well. Defense will get some takeaways. Steelers by 1 score.

WAS-KC: The sportsbooks seem to be thinking what I was all week by putting Washington’s O/U to 17.5 points. I think the Chiefs stop the 27-game streak of 18+ points by Washington to maintain their own NFL record of 28 games doing that (twice). Some revenge against Mariota for the 2017 playoffs. You have to go back to 2020 to find the last time the Chiefs had a streak of 5 wins by multiple scores. And never in the Mahomes era have the Chiefs posted 5 straight wins by 12+ points, which is what they’d need to do here to cover again.

They’ve gone 8 straight games now without a one-score win, which is unlike them, so don’t be shocked if it’s 28-17 and they don’t cover the full 11.5 spread. That’s why I said Washington under 17.5 is the best pick on the scoreboard..

2024 NFL Stat Oddity: Wild Card Weekend

~ Scott ~ 1 Comment

No matter what an NFL team does for 18 weeks, no matter how much work you put into reviewing their season and predicting their playoff fate, sometimes a pick parade happens, and you end up with the first 32-12 final in NFL history.

That goofy result in Houston, during their annual Bill O’Brien Saturday Afternoon Invitational, was a harbinger of the weekend to come with one-sided games won by the home team up until Sunday night when we finally got some drama courtesy of Jayden Daniels and the misadventures in snaps from the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

There’s still a Monday night game between the Vikings and Rams to come, but it wasn’t the most exciting wild card weekend. That’s for sure. The Commanders-Bucs game was the only one of the five games with a second-half lead change. The only one with a comeback opportunity. The only one where both teams scored more than 14 points.

But I guess a lot of the paper tigers and heavily flawed teams have been eliminated, so we’re still on track for a good divisional round.  

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Commanders at Buccaneers: The Best Rookie Quarterback Season Ever

When Jayden Daniels scored a garbage-time touchdown run in Tampa Bay in Week 1 to produce a 37-20 final, I loved it because it allowed me to hit an improbable SGP where I had Daniels and Mike Evans both scoring two touchdowns.

Little did I know that score would keep alive a streak where the Commanders have scored at least 18 points in all 18 games this season, the 12th team in NFL history to do that, and they have a chance to become just the third to do it in 19 games as their season will continue another week after winning yet another close game in Tampa Bay this time.

After that garbage-time touchdown run by Daniels in Week 1, he made some unique history against the Giants in Week 2 when he led his offense to 7 field goals on 7 drives, the only game in NFL history like that. But Week 3 in Cincinnati was the game where I was truly sold on the kid after he put up 38 points on six drives, scoring every time he had the ball. Then he scored his first two drives in Arizona, meaning 16 straight scoring drives when you exclude kneeldowns. No known streak in NFL history by one quarterback exceeds that.

Then even when Daniels lost a game in Baltimore against a contender, I was still impressed with the way he handled himself, throwing for 269 yards, 2 touchdowns, and he led his team in rushing with 22 yards that day as little help was provided. He had no turnovers.

Then the Hail Mary happened against Chicago, and while that’s a lucky play to get the tip, his ability to manufacture that drive, get it close enough, and extend the play long enough to pull that off was impressive. The rib injury may have slowed him down for a few weeks there, but after the bye week, he’s been very good and leading his team like a veteran with several more clutch game-winning drives like the efforts against the Eagles and Falcons.

I think Daniels had arguably the best regular season ever for a rookie quarterback when you consider he threw for 3,568 yards, 25 touchdowns, and rushed for 891 yards and 6 more scores to lead his team in rushing. That’s the kind of dual-threat season that only Lamar Jackson has pulled off this year, and at least he has Derrick Henry to help him out now. Daniels has often been the leading rusher in games for his team, and it happened again in his first playoff game.

But I think this road playoff win is also the cherry on top for giving him the edge over the likes of Ben Roethlisberger (2004), Dak Prescott (2016), and C.J. Stroud (2023) for the best rookie quarterback season ever.

Daniels just played a playoff game where his offense never punted and never turned the ball over, the kind of feat only Peyton Manning (2003 vs. Chiefs) and Josh Allen (2021 vs. Patriots) have achieved in the postseason. Granted, the Commanders turned it over on downs twice, but they also converted a few times that led to huge touchdowns that were the difference in the game.

There were only seven possessions for each team in this game, so mistakes were going to get magnified. Unfortunately for Baker Mayfield, a fumble is going to be the play people remember best from this game. The Bucs were up 17-13 and got the ball back after holding the Commanders on 4th-and-goal. I also mean literally holding as it sure looked like DPI should have been called on the Bucs for how they grabbed Zach Ertz in the end zone.

But right after Mike Evans made a great stretch effort to get a first down, the Bucs got cute with a little trickery in the backfield and the timing of the play was off, resulting in a fumbled snap that the Commaders recovered and used to go 13 yards for the go-ahead touchdown after Daniels found Terry McLaurin on a 4th-and-2.

What a crushing play and I really don’t think they needed to do something like that. I’m not sure if the plan was to hand it off or fake the handoff, but they screwed it up. Then with the chance to take the lead, the Bucs screwed that up too with Baker getting stopped on a run, setting up a 3rd-and-1 where the center’s snap timing was off, resulting in a 2-yard loss. Another snap disaster for the Bucs.

With 4:45 left, I can understand the rationale from Todd Bowles for the game-tying field goal on 4th-and-3 at the 14. You like to think you’ll get the ball back with four clock stoppages left. I don’t hate the decision to kick it, but maybe we have to start recognizing Daniels in that Patrick Mahomes kind of light as someone you simply don’t want to have the ball last.

Sure enough, Daniels was able to burn the last 4:41 while putting his team in range for an easy field goal. He used his arms and legs to get the job done. I don’t think Bowles made the best use of his timeouts either. It was going to be a 37-yard field goal by Washington as the final play of regulation, so barely longer than an extra point.

But when they showed this clip of kicker Zane Gonzalez constantly rubbing his hair as some sort of pre-kick ritual, I thought for sure this goofy MFer was going to blow the kick.

The truth is he kind of did, because the kick hit the upright only to get the favorable bounce through to send the Commanders to the divisional round for the first time since the 2005 season and to send the Buccaneers home after a crushing home loss.

Tampa will be stewing all offseason over some of those decisions like the fumbled snaps and kicking the field goal. As for Washington, this is what happens when you find the right quarterback in the draft. Daniels had a historic playoff debut, because the history of rookie quarterbacks on the road in the postseason is brutal.

In nearly 30 chances from all rookies in NFL history, Daniels joins just Sammy Baugh (the original Washington legend) from 1937 as the only rookies to win on the road while throwing for 200 yards, while throwing more than one touchdown pass, and while beating a team that actually scored more than 14 points as most rookies who in (Mark Sanchez/Joe Flacco variety) on the road in the playoffs do it on the back of a dominant defense. That’s not a multi-stat qualifier. Those are three different things where he joins Baugh as the only quarterbacks to do, and they did them all in the same game.

Daniels is “just built different” as they say these days. Washington will have its shot to shock the Lions in Detroit next.

Packers at Eagles: I Like Detroit Even More for the Super Bowl

This was the only game I predicted to be decided by double digits this weekend. I had the Eagles winning by 11 and they won by 12, so close enough. But what a terrible game to watch, and it was bad from the start when the Packers fumbled the opening kickoff. They definitely fumbled, but in a rare case, we had a close-up shot of the players fighting for the ball and what looked like a pretty decent recovery effort by the Packers to get it back:

At what point can you say the play is long over, the Packer has the ball, and is down by contact? I think that was a garbage call to say “the play stands” and give the Eagles the ball there. That was a huge call too as the Eagles needed that short field (28 yards) to get their early touchdown, because the offense was not good.

I don’t know if it was the concussion or what had Jalen Hurts out of sorts, but he was 6/13 for 39 yards at halftime despite the Eagles feeding him three turnovers from the Packers. Unfortunately, Jordan Love and the Packers couldn’t take advantage of that slow start from the passing game for Philly that saw A.J. Brown catch one ball for 10 yards and get some reading in on the sideline.

Injuries also hurt the Packers dearly as they lost multiple offensive linemen and wide receivers in this game after Christian Watson already tore his ACL last week. That’s how you end up with Bo Melton and “Malik Heath” as the targets on some of your most important plays of the season. I was waiting for Jeff Janis to show up.

In the second half, every slight answer by the Packers was met by the Eagles. A Green Bay field goal to make it 10-3 was met immediately by Dallas Goedert going off for a 24-yard touchdown that included three stiff arms of the same defender (Carrington Valentine), who might need to change his name now to avoid the shame of that highlight for Goedert.

Josh Jacobs played hard in his playoff debut for the Packers and ran hard for a great run to set up a touchdown that made it 16-10 with nearly a whole quarter to play. But instead of the defense stepping up, it let the Eagles burn half the quarter with one Tush Push along the way for a field goal that made it 19-10.

Love didn’t play well at all, but I thought his 4th-and-3 pass would have been a routine catch by a player like Romeo Doubs or Jayden Reed if they were healthy and in the game instead of Heath, who landed out of bounds with 5:03 left to end the last real threat. The Packers also were undisciplined and picked up a few silly 15-yard flags for late hits on Saquon Barkley, who was fine with a 100-yard game he only clinched in garbage time with the game wrapped up.

Actually, Love’s interception in the end zone at the 2-minute warning was some pretty blatant DPI on the Eagles, and that should have set up a first-and-goal at the 1. But the Packers already felt so defeated in a 22-10 game where they were down to one timeout that no one seemed to mind the missed call.

The Packers (11-7) finish this season getting swept by the Lions, Vikings, and Eagles as they just couldn’t beat the elite teams they were able to defeat in 2023. That’s a good formula for a one-and-done season as the No. 7 seed.

I guess we should assume the Eagles will play better than this in the rest of the playoffs, but if I’m Detroit, I don’t fear this team one bit. Not after this game.

Broncos at Bills: Sean Payton, You Tease

If you told me the Broncos wouldn’t score another point after their opening drive, I wouldn’t have believed it. Bo Nix was abandoned again by his running game, put in terrible situations all day by Sean Payton’s offense, and yet he still delivered a third-and-8 conversion and a beautiful 43-yard touchdown strike to Tony Franklin to start the game.

Maybe that should have been a warning sign that this wouldn’t be sustainable offense, but I thought it was an incredible start that showed Nix is ready for the big moment. Unfortunately, the Broncos wasted their fake punt by not going anywhere after it, then they had the loudest field goal miss I ever heard before halftime that should have made it 10-10, a spot they had to feel very comfortable with given the way their defense was getting shredded by Buffalo’s ground game and great offensive line.

But I think the game was largely lost for Denver in the second and third quarters between the weak play calls on early downs where Payton was trying to protect Nix by only making his job harder in having to convert third-and-longs.

In the third quarter, Denver went three-and-out twice with Nix only getting to drop back on third down when he needed 5 and 11 yards. That’s rubbish, and his receivers could have been better with their hands after some big drops in the game.

But the crucial drive came when Buffalo was up 13-7 in the third. Josh Allen threw a hospital ball to running back Ray Davis, which led him to a big hit that knocked him out of the game. That should have brought up third-and-13, but instead it is an automatic first down because of the flag for unnecessary roughness. The NFL made this switch years ago, and I still hate it every single time and say it shouldn’t be a penalty. The flag didn’t stop the hit, which only happened because of a terrible Allen throw that led his back right into contact.

The defender even pulled up and led with the shoulder, so he didn’t go for a helmet-to-helmet hit. I hate the way the offense gets these calls now. Later on that drive, the Bills faced a 4th-and-1. Allen scrambled for almost 7 seconds before throwing to the back of the end zone for Ty Johnson, another talented back in this offense who has done damage as a receiver. He somehow was able to keep his knee in bounds (or close enough on replay) before his foot touched out of bounds for a huge 24-yard touchdown.

I’ve said this is the difference in Buffalo this year and should share some of those numbers this week. Allen’s passes to targets in the backfield are having a huge impact since the Bills use these players down the field in mismatches. In fact, you’d be surprised how much production out of backfield targets goes to helping a quarterback win MVP. Those plays are a huge boost.

Then the Bills blew the game open on the first play of the fourth quarter when terrible tackling led to a 55-yard touchdown for Curtis Samuel to make it 28-7. Game over. The Bills held the ball for 41:43 as the Broncos couldn’t sustain offense and couldn’t slow down their running attack.

In the end, I think you have to say the Denver defense was a paper tiger this year. Patrick Surtain II might still win DPOY but not sure he had any real impact in this game. The Broncos had their worst games of the season defensively on the road against teams like the Bills, Chargers, Bengals, and Ravens, who all scored 30+. Even their 16-14 loss in Kansas City will go down as their sixth-worst game of the season in defensive EPA.

Tampa Bay was really the only qualify offense this defense slowed down this year, so that’s a disappointing way to end the season. But Payton needs to show more trust in Nix than he did in this game. He won’t be able to use the rookie excuse next time.

Steelers at Ravens: The Standard Continues

If I just started pasting in paragraphs from past articles about Pittsburgh playoff losses, would anyone even notice? They do the same thing every time, after all. This one from four years ago after they fell behind 28-0 to the Browns and lost has a lot of the same things I could go over for Saturday night’s 28-14 loss in Baltimore.

What really changed this time? Oh, there weren’t any turnovers in the game. I guess that’s an improvement on offense where they didn’t give up return scores or easy field position. Then again, I liked the fight the offense showed in some of those losses with Roethlisberger at quarterback instead of the pathetic no-show in the first half when they punted four times Saturday.

But let’s be clear. Russell Wilson was not the issue, and Justin Fields sure as hell wouldn’t have done any better in a game they were going to have to score a lot of points to win. The problem is Wilson has limitations and there’s no way you’re winning games like this with him at this stage of his career.

But the Steelers aren’t winning games like this with Mike Tomlin’s defense, which continues to be on the worst run in playoff history. That’s now six straight playoff games allowing 28+ points. No other team has more than four such games. That’s 230 points allowed in six playoff games, also a record.

The Steelers were 10-3 and ended this year with five straight wire-to-wire losses. That’s pathetic. They couldn’t even take a 3-0 lead in any of these games.

On Saturday night, they took their historically-bad playoff defense up against Lamar Jackson’s historically underperforming playoff offense, and Jackson won the matchup by halftime with a 21-0 lead and over 200 total yards from offense with his arm and legs. Derrick Henry also crucified them on the ground, and Lamar was making the Steelers look silly with the zone-read option, 2012’s trendiest offensive wrinkle in the NFL. T.J. Watt looked like he’s never defended it in his life, constantly crashing in on Henry while Lamar still had the ball. Amateur hour.

I’d say more, but what’s the point? It’s the same shit every year and nothing ever changes in Pittsburgh. It’s the worst form of NFL purgatory where you have no chance at a high draft pick, and you have no real shot to win a playoff game. Rinse and repeat. Best thing I can say is the fans were so uninterested in this game that even they weren’t taking the bait that this time would be any different.

If you start losing the fans, if you start being met with apathy, that should finally cause a shake-up with who is running this team. But until they fire Tomlin and find their next visionary coach, the standard is going to be the standard.

Chargers at Texans: Chargering Is Unstoppable

“It can’t be bargained with. It can’t be reasoned with. It doesn’t feel pity, or remorse, or fear. And it absolutely will not stop, ever, until you are dead.”

That’s Kyle Reese warning Chargers fans about the curse of Chargering placed on their team. I thought Jim Harbaugh would fix it, but even he couldn’t overcome it in a playoff loss that stands to be more embarrassing than the blown 27-0 lead in Jacksonville.

At least in Jacksonville, I can say the 27-0 lead was unearned, propped up by short fields from an absurd number of takeaways before the defense blew it by playing a terrible half, and a kicker missing a 40-yard field goal that should have been enough.

But this time? I never would have believed Justin Herbert would implode like this. Not after he came out dealing with a backup tight end snatching a pass for 15 yards on the opening drive. This was going to be a vintage Herbert game. Instead, it’s the game that’s going to keep him out of every top quarterback discussion until he proves he can perform in the playoffs.

Sure, there were flaws as the short-yardage running game was terrible, Quentin Johnston predictably failed to catch a single ball in his playoff debut, and the lack of polished receivers after Ladd McConkey (he was incredible) proved to be a disaster for the Chargers.

But a lot of this was on Herbert too. After C.J. Stroud threw a pick, Herbert immediately negated it by tossing his first, forcing a deep ball on the next snap. He threw just 3 interceptions all year, and while that was always likely to regress against a high-pressure, high-takeaway defense, you don’t expect him to throw the most interceptions of his pro football career in this game.

The crusher came late in the third quarter when Herbert’s pass for McConkey was too high and intercepted for a touchdown to put the Chargers behind 20-6. Then Will Dissly dropped and deflected a pass that should have been caught for Herbert’s third pick. That one wasn’t his fault, but a lot of damage had already been done. He added a fourth pick in garbage time when it was 32-12.

But what a disastrous game as the Texans were struggling to get things going for most of the half only to still find themselves leading 10-6 at halftime. That should have been the first sign this was going to go south for the Chargers. They watched Stroud get away with an intentional grounding penalty in the end zone for a probable safety, then a bad snap led to a big play that sparked that 99-yard touchdown drive.

Then they take away a pick from Derwin James in the third quarter in the end zone that leads to a Houston field goal. Not great. That all led up to the pick parade, but the pass rush also amped up on Herbert once the Texans had some confidence they were going to win this game. Herbert was creamed in the fourth quarter.

Even after an 86-yard touchdown to McConkey, the Chargers made history by having their extra point blocked, Dicker the Kicker knocked it down instead of recovering the live ball, and the Texans returned it for the first ever defensive 2-point return in NFL playoff history to make it 25-12. Yep, that’s Chargers BINGO at that point.

This is the worst loss for the Chargers since losing that AFC divisional round game to the Mark Sanchez-led Jets in 2009. It might even be worse than that since it’s a game that shows Herbert and Harbaugh aren’t above results like this, and the Chargers are still not ready to overtake the Chiefs in the AFC West.

It really puts the Chargers in a bad spot where their best hope is to be a wild card team that is prone to having a brutal loss in the first round. I just went over that with Pittsburgh, so I can tell you it’s not a fun spot to be in at all for a fan.

See it for enough years and you just lose interest. Apathy sets in. Hope is such a better product to sell fans, because for a franchise that’s never won a Super Bowl, all they know is hope and potential.

But right now, it’s hard to see what hope the Chargers have that doesn’t simply include Andy Reid and Travis Kelce deciding to retire in a month, Bo Nix being a fraud, the Raiders hiring another bum QB/coach duo, and finding Herbert another great receiver to pair with McConkey.

Even then, Chargering just feels inevitable for this team. You can’t escape it.

Next week: It’s my favorite playoff round, but that doesn’t always mean the games will be great. Hard to not top this week, though. You can expect research on playoff rest with the Chiefs having an extended break here before they face Houston. Commanders-Lions is a fresh matchup that should be great for the offenses on Saturday night. I think Vikings-Rams at Eagles has dud written all over it, but we’ll see. Then the most hyped game of the year to this point will be Ravens at Bills. Early prediction: It won’t be a QB-driven shootout. They almost never are when they’re hyped this way, but I have all weak to explain that one.

2024 NFL Stat Oddity: Week 16

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

The NFL delivered such a frontloaded Week 16 schedule that six of the likely AFC playoff teams already played on Thursday and Saturday. All that Sunday had left was Buffalo slumming it with the Patriots.

But the games were competitive, and 12 of the 15 games so far this week had a comeback opportunity with six game-winning drives already in the books. We saw a concussion knock Jalen Hurts out of the big game in Washington, an iconic performance for Jayden Daniels in the comeback win, and the Cowboys even decided to play hard Sunday night to upset the Buccaneers and bring some chaos to the NFC South.

A week ago, people were flocking towards an Eagles-Bills Super Bowl. Now, that doesn’t look so hot with the reality that neither is likely to be a No. 1 seed, and teams like the Chiefs, Lions, Vikings, Packers, and Ravens are still very much relevant in this race.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Eagles at Commanders: Kenny Pickett? (Read It in the “Scut Farkas?” Narration Voice)

Sunday’s best game on paper turned out to be the best game for reasons no one expected. Jalen Hurts was ruled out early after a concussion on a long run where he just looked a hair off after getting up. That was enough to take him out and replace him with Kenny Pickett of all people.

Oh, it was quite the Pickett experience too as he took 3 sacks with his oblivious nature to the pass rush, he threw a pick, he locked onto basically 2 receivers (A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith had 23 of the team’s 28 pass targets), the Eagles were 3-for-16 on third down, and he still made a couple of clutch throws that probably should have won the game.

But it didn’t work out this time as Philadelphia’s winning streak was snapped at 10 games. The Eagles got a 68-yard touchdown run out of Saquon Barkley, but his other 28 carries only gained 82 yards as the Commanders kept stuffing runs to stay in the game after the offense had 5 turnovers on a sloppy day where they even started the game with a turnover on downs after Brian Robinson Jr. was stuffed on a 4th-and-1 run.

The ability to withstand 5 giveaways and still come back to beat a top defense like the Eagles 36-33 is really impressive for Jayden Daniels, the rookie sensation who absolutely locked up the Offensive Rookie of the Year award here. Even with his skill players fumbling 3 times and giving him 32 rushing yards, Daniels was a dual-threat machine in this game with 258 passing yards and 81 rushing yards. The only other quarterback in NFL history to even have one game with 5 touchdown passes, 220 passing yards, and 70 rushing yards was Cam Newton in 2015 against the Giants, a game that locked up his MVP award that year.

Would things have turned out differently if Hurts wasn’t concussed? Perhaps. But it’s not like the Eagles didn’t score 33 points, didn’t lead 14-0/21-7/27-14, or didn’t rack up takeaways. They just couldn’t finish the job.

Barkley had a big drop on his only pass target in the fourth quarter. Later, Daniels made his biggest mistake with an interception with 2:53 left in a 30-28 game. But instead of icing the game, the Eagles couldn’t convert a 3rd-and-5 when Pickett’s pass was dropped by a wide-open Smith, a shockingly bad drop that’s even worse than the one Barkley had in Week 2 against Atlanta, another improbable loss for the Eagles this year and why their shot at the No. 1 seed is all but toast.

That gave Daniels another shot in a 33-28 game with 1:52 left, and he delivered another clutch drive for a 9-yard touchdown to Jamison Crowder with 6 seconds left to go up 36-33 after a 2-point conversion run.

The Commanders are still going to likely fall short of winning the NFC East, but can you imagine if the wild card match is No. 7 Washington at No. 2 Philadelphia? That just got a lot more likely and interesting after this game.

Texans at Chiefs: Stroud-Mahomes I Not Quite as Planned

When the NFL schedule came out in May, I was hyping up Texans-Chiefs as a huge game for the MVP race and No. 1 seed. I thought C.J. Stroud would be the next challenger to Patrick Mahomes in the AFC, and this game would be his chance on a national stage to show how far he and this team has come against the defending champs.

Well, the season hasn’t quite turned out that way, but both teams still came in as division winners and the Chiefs are chasing the No. 1 seed. I also think Stroud held his own and did a decent job on the road after losing Tank Dell to a gruesome knee injury. He’s already lost Stefon Diggs, so it’s basically Nico Collins and some guys, and one of those guys (tight end Dalton Schultz) had a pretty egregious drop in the second half.

But Stroud also threw two picks, and you can’t do that in Kansas City. The Chiefs are getting that turnover regression in full force now with 8 takeaways in the last two games after 10 takeaways through 13 games. The offense also hasn’t turned it over in 5 straight games, the longest streak in the Mahomes era. So, everything I was saying about turnovers for this team earlier this season is coming true now with the defense starting to get them and the offense avoiding them well.

But it was still another one-score win despite the Chiefs only spending about 5-6 minutes trailing in a game they mostly controlled. Hollywood Brown made his season debut and looked solid given he’s never played a real game before with this offense. Definitely should be a plus going forward. Even Xaiver Worthy played well and scored another touchdown. Still not getting much from the running game, but I like that the Chiefs made a real effort to get the ball out fast against an elite pass rush.

Mahomes played very well, and go figure, he showed on the opening drive that the ankle was no big deal with two huge scrambles, including a 15-yard touchdown run. The Chiefs finished with 27 points on 9 drives, and that includes Kareem Hunt sliding down at the end when he could have scored if he wanted to.

But the Chiefs are more than content with their 27-19 type of victory as they are 14-1 and march towards another No. 1 seed. They get two cracks at winning one game to clinch it.

Steelers at Ravens: Pittsburgh Might Lose Out Now

Why does this game feel so long ago when Saturday was just one day before Sunday? But I wanted to quickly touch on three things with this one.

First, Russell Wilson undoubtedly screwed things up here in a game that was more high scoring than expected and there for the taking. He got greedy on the scramble that turned into a fumble when he should have been satisfied with a 1st-and-goal. Then the pick-six after Minkah Fitzpatrick delivered an incredible pick was just a back breaker and game ender to make it 31-17 in the fourth quarter. Can’t afford those kind of mistakes on the road against a playoff opponent.

As for Mike Tomlin, I think he let the Philadelphia punt beat him twice. Tomlin was rightfully criticized for punting last week in Philadelphia before the Eagles went on to run out the final 10-plus minutes on the clock. But instead of learning the right lesson that the punt was bad because of the 27-13 score and the struggles to get Philly off the field, Tomin ignored the game situation Saturday and made another bad call when he went for a 4th-and-6 at the Baltimore 45 with a whole quarter left. Wilson threw deep to Calvin Austin for an incompletion.

Maybe it’s a moot point since two plays later, Lamar Jackson wasted Derrick Henry’s 44-yard run by throwing a pick, but I still would like to see Tomlin learn when to punt and when to go for it with better skill and reasoning instead of what feels like randomness. He got aggressive in a spot that really didn’t call for it. I also think he was frustrated the Ravens recovered all 3 of those early fumbles that could have really turned this game around. It just wasn’t Pittsburgh’s day as fumble recoveries on those plays is key to how they’ve been beating Baltimore so routinely.

But I wouldn’t say it was exactly Lamar Jackson’s day either. Sure, he threw 3 touchdowns and got his cleanest win yet against the Steelers. But he only hit one 20-yard completion in the game against a secondary that was already missing a corner (Donte Jackson) and lost another (Joey Porter Jr.) to injury. T.J. Watt wasn’t 100% after a fourth-quarter injury last week and wasn’t a factor here. The Ravens recovered Jackson’s early strip-sack fumble. He only had 25 rushing yards on 6 carries, so they kept him contained again. Then he threw a horrible pick in the red zone when the Ravens had their shot to go up two scores.

But Henry rushed for 162 yards and the Steelers left some key receivers open throughout the game. I don’t think they’d have any fear of a rematch even if it was played in Baltimore in the playoffs. George Pickens, Jackson, and Porter Jr. should be back for that one and a healthier Watt (hopefully).

We might end up seeing that too, because it wouldn’t be surprising if the Steelers lost out here with the Chiefs and Bengals up next. I guess it depends on how badly both teams need that Week 18 game.

But the Ravens needed this one to avoid losing the AFC North, and they came through. We’ll see what they do in Houston next while the Steelers have to deal with the Chiefs.

Patriots at Bills: Running Backs Matter?

As new AFC East rivals, you’re going to hear a lot of comparisons between Drake Maye and Josh Allen in the next few years, or at least for as long enough as Maye gives us a reason to.

Here’s one such comparison: Maye’s 2024 rookie season is better than Josh Allen’s 2018 rookie season. If the Patriots invest wisely this offseason, I’d expect Maye’s second season to also be better than Allen’s second season. Anything beyond that might be a stretch.

But that’s the future. As for Sunday, it’s no stretch at all to say Maye outplayed Allen in their first matchup but didn’t get the win because of the difference in how their running backs played. It was 14 degrees at kickoff, but Maye did well throwing the ball in Buffalo, making some excellent plays down the field and in tight windows on shorter throws.

The Patriots led 14-0 early, but they couldn’t build on that lead. Buffalo also quickly cut into half of it with a 46-yard touchdown run by James Cook, his fourth burst from over 40 yards for a score this year. He later added another touchdown catch on another drive where he broke a 25-yard run.

It covered up a poor game from Allen, who threw for 154 yards on 16-of-29 passing. He only had one touchdown pass and threw an ugly looking interception in the end zone that the Patriots were caught trying to return instead of taking the touchback. Allen only rushed for 30 yards too, so it just wasn’t a very effective game for him at all. His 28.7 QBR was the third lowest this week while Maye’s was 67.3.

But this game turned in the third quarter when Rhamondre Stevenson lost a fumble, setting up the Bills for a 50-yard go-ahead field goal on a drive that was just 10 yards long. The Bills led 17-14 and never trailed again from that point. I can’t help but point out all the big fumbles the skill players for the Patriots have had since 2020 after Tom Brady left the team. This didn’t use to happen to them, but it has now and Stevenson is a repeat offender with some huge fumbles in his career.

This game is another glaring example, but the stat sheet is going to show that Maye fumbled on a lateral pass to Stevenson in the fourth quarter that was returned for an easy Buffalo touchdown to make it 24-14.

https://twitter.com/NFL/status/1870980329097539969

Was the pass too hard? Hell no. That’s a pretty soft lob that hit Stevenson right in the hands well before any contact. The problem was he shouldn’t have thrown it as the defender was bearing down and it was going to be a huge loss even if caught. Throwing it backwards to make it a live ball instead of forward to be a swing pass that might go incomplete just made it worse.

But that play really ruined the game for New England, and I swear Stevenson is a double agent at times for this team. Don’t forget the time he choked against the Bengals in 2022 on 1st-and-goal from inside the 5.

Eventually, the Patriots scored a touchdown with 1:13 left, but they wasted almost a full minute after having 1st-and-goal at the 1 with 2:14 left. Antonio Gibson, the other back, was stuffed for a 3-yard loss, leading to an extended series of plays, including a bad dropped fumble by Maye that he recovered, that took a minute off the clock and left the Patriots with little hope of getting the ball back despite keeping all three timeouts.

Maybe Drake Maye should embrace his “the new Josh Allen” and should have did the Tush Push on that 1st-and-goal play at 2:14. Get this thing in before the 2-minute warning and the Patriots could have had 4 clock stoppages in a 24-21 game on a day where Allen wasn’t good.

But this is why the Patriots are 3-12.

Buccaneers at Cowboys: Where Was This Dallas Team Earlier?

The Cowboys (7-8) may have been eliminated from the playoffs Sunday, but they’re possibly a botched punt against Cincinnati away from a 5-game winning streak after taking down the Buccaneers in a wild 26-24 game Sunday night.

Where was this team earlier in the season when it was getting destroyed by 20-point deficits at home every week? Cooper Rush had a successful night against the Tampa Bay defense, and the Buccaneers had some really poor plays with drops and getting outmuscled for the ball by Dallas’ defense who just looked like they wanted it more all night. The interception in the fourth quarter in the end zone was a great example of that.

But what about the ending? It looked like Tampa Bay was going to pull off an improbable 9-point comeback in the last 5:00 by scoring twice. They got the ball back with 1:40 and only needed a field goal. But one of the craziest endings you’ll ever see took place. On the first snap, Baker Mayfield kept fighting to avoid a sack, flipped the ball out to receiving back Rachaad White, who carried it like a loaf of bread before securing it and gaining some YAC.

https://twitter.com/brgridiron/status/1871052626302804198

But even though he got both hands on the ball again, the Cowboys still ripped the ball away from him for a game-deciding fumble. Madness.

Tampa Bay (8-7) is going to need Atlanta to lose a game if it wants to win the NFC South again. This was a bad performance in Dallas for them.

Vikings at Seahawks: Another Close Win for Kevin O’Connell and Sam Darnold

Remember when the Vikings were 5-0 and people started writing them off after a little 2-game losing streak? Well, they’re 8-0 since their last loss, and the latest test they passed was another gut-check win on the road in Seattle against a team playing for a division title chase.

I continue to be impressed with Sam Darnold, who shook off another 3-sack game by still throwing 3 touchdowns, including the game winner from 39 yards out to Justin Jefferson with 3:51 left. Darnold has led 5 game-winning drives this season, doubling his career total he had coming into 2024.

Geno Smith played well on that knee injury for most of the game, but when push came to shove, he took a sack and a fantastic tackle on a 3rd-and-16 checkdown to the running back led to a 60-yard field goal, which was missed with 1:55 left. After Smith got the ball back with 55 seconds left and still in need of a field goal for overtime, he immediately threw a bad pick to end the game.

I’m heavily rooting for the Vikings to beat Green Bay next week so that we can get the last game of the regular season to be Vikings-Lions in Detroit for the No. 1 seed. I’m also not ruling out 2024 being Sam Darnold’s Eli/Flacco/Foles moment as we feel overdue for that kind of postseason.

Lions at Bears: On the Bright Side, No Clock Mismanagement This Time…

The Bears almost beat the Lions on Thanksgiving, but there was no such close finish this time as the score stayed 34-17 the entire final quarter. It didn’t help that the Bears had another slow start, falling behind 20-0, but you have to blame Rome Odunze for a couple of early fumble plays for that this time.

But the Lions were excellent on offense with a big game from Jared Goff and Jahmyr Gibbs in a starring role without David Montgomery (MCL). I believe the theory that offensive coordinator Ben Johnson was “showing off” to impress the Bears’ front office if he is to be their next head coach. Calling that intentional “stumble” play with Goff throwing a touchdown was an excellent example of him pulling out all the tricks even when the Lions probably didn’t need them to beat Chicago again.

But Johnson should want to coach a team like Chicago. First, you stay out of the AFC where most of the elite quarterbacks are, and you have a chance to build up the Bears with Caleb Williams, who again had a game where I think it showed his potential more than it did problems. He threw for 334 yards, no picks again, and he only took 2 sacks this week. He was also his team’s leading rusher again with 34 yards.

Johnson is a hot commodity in the coaching ranks, so we’ll see where he lands next month. But this very well may have been part of his interview with the Bears.

Rams at Jets: Almost a Historic Game

The Rams just can’t play a “normal” game this month. They go from a 44-42 wire-to-wire win over the Bills to a 12-6 comeback win in rainy San Francisco, and now it’s a 19-9 win in New York that looks low scoring as hell, but this game actually came close to being historic.

Each team only had the ball three times in the first half as long drives ruled the day. In the third quarter, the Jets had a drive that lasted nearly 10 minutes and ended with a turnover on downs, a killer and probably a bad decision to go for a 4th-and-4 instead of a short field goal to go up 12-6.

But the Rams’ next drive bled into the fourth quarter, a game-tying field goal drive, so we had a game with just 8 total possessions with 12:44 to play. This could have set the record for the fastest 60-minute NFL game ever played and the one with the fewest possessions between two teams (think 11 would do the trick, maybe 12), but we didn’t get there in the end.

Aaron Rodgers went from some strong drive engineering as his protection held up to giving up the ball on a strip-sack as he got a little too comfortable in holding onto it. That put the Rams on a short field for a go-ahead touchdown drive as Matthew Stafford found a healthy Tyler Higbee for 11 yards. Rodgers couldn’t answer on the ensuing 4th-and-4, and the Rams added a field goal to make it 19-9.

The Jets’ last real hope was a 49-yard field goal with 2:02 left, but as has been the case all season, the kicking team blew it. Even when they tried to get one last possession back, they muffed the punt, so the special teams have been just abysmal for the 2024 Jets.

And that’s how you end up blowing your sixth 4th-quarter lead of the year to lead all teams, the most since Josh McDaniels’ Raiders in 2022. Just going to leave this here, and keep in mind it’s 15 starts that Rodgers started and finished this year as that 16 number includes last year’s Buffalo opener when he tore his Achilles.

https://twitter.com/ScottKacsmar/status/1871091880181870770

Cardinals at Panthers: Adios, Arizona

The Cardinals (7-8) have been eliminated from the playoffs after a bad loss in Carolina. They forced overtime after trailing 20-3 early and 30-20 in the fourth quarter. But losing James Conner, who was having a huge game, didn’t help, and in overtime, the Cardianls couldn’t get a drive going. They were even so desperate to move the chains they went for a 4th-and-2 at their own 18, which would have set the Panthers up for a game-winning chipshot if they didn’t get it.

They converted, but the reason that’s a big gamble is you’re still not guaranteed to move the ball any deeper and might end up punting it back anyway. That’s exactly what happened too. Between a delay of game penalty and sack of Kyler Murray on third down, the Cardinals ended up punting from their own 4 after another penalty on top of that. By the time the Panthers got the ball for the second time in overtime, they were at midfield and it only took one Chuba Hubbard run for 28 yards to get in field goal range, then he just ended it with a 21-yard touchdown run to win 36-30.

I don’t know if Bryce Young will ever be good, but I do know that Kyler Murray just missed the playoffs for the fifth time in six years in Arizona, and no one seems to care about that. He’s reaching that Sam Bradford level of “no one cares” for a No. 1 overall pick.

Browns at Bengals: Should Have Been Jameis All Along

As it turns out, Jameis Winston had some type of injury that kept him out of action this week. It’s a shame because I think the Browns could have won this game with him taking on that defense instead of a minimal passing game from Dorian Thompson-Robinson, who took 5 sacks and threw 2 picks while leading the offense to 6 points on 10 drives. That will help the stats for the Cincinnati defense this year.

You could tell early that it wouldn’t be Cleveland’s day when D’Onta Foreman fumbled at the 1-yard line to start the game instead of taking a 7-0 lead. The Bengals were stuck on 17 points for a while, and Joe Burrow even fumbled on a strip-sack from the Cleveland 1 late in the fourth quarter when he was trying to extend his streak of games with 3 touchdown passes.

That’s why I criticize Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts for taking the easy option on the Tush Push instead of being asked to make a throw down there in a confined space. You never know what might happen, but Burrow didn’t even get a pass off here. I’m not saying the sneak isn’t the percentage play, but it’s not something we should be giving excessive credit to for the quarterback.

But Burrow got the ball back and extended his streak anyway after Myles Garrett jumped offside and Burrow went hunting for that streak on a deep throw to Ja’Marr Chase, who came down with the touchdown to make it 24-6.

But it’s all for naught if the Broncos come into Cincinnati next week and win in a de-facto playoff game. That’s going to be the biggest Cincinnati game of the last two seasons.

49ers at Dolphins: From Losing to the Chiefs in the Playoffs to 6-8 Starts

The 49ers were eliminated from the playoffs before this one kicked off in the late window. While I was watching it on RedZone and the 49ers were trailing 19-10, it hit me seeing these teams with 6-8 records after they were both in the playoffs as two of the teams the Chiefs beat that had better than +100 point differentials in 2023. What a difference a year makes for these motion merchants.

I also find myself again scoffing at the injury excuses for the 49ers, who lost again here , when you still see a roster with Brock Purdy, George Kittle, Deebo Samuel, Jauan Jennings, Leonard Floyd, Nick Bosa, Dre Greenlaw, Fred Warner, etc. You really need more than that to not lose by 12 points to the paper tiger Dolphins?

But I digress. Jake Moody being a terrible kicker is one major roster flaw as he missed a 41-yard kick in this game that wasted a third quarter drive. But late in a 22-17 game, it was pressure on Purdy that led to a bad interception and the Dolphins put it away with a long Achane touchdown run they didn’t necessarily need as the game is over if he goes down at any point inside the 40.

But hey, run it up and celebrate something as the Dolphins (7-8) are technically not eliminated yet. It’s the 49ers who are toast.

Titans at Colts: The Almost Epic Comeback of the Year  

It was only two years ago when the Colts blew a 33-0 lead to the Vikings. This time, they were up 38-7 on the Titans with 6:50 to go in the third quarter thanks to some huge touchdown runs by Jonathan Taylor, who secured the ball this week. But the Titans marched on three straight touchdown drives behind Mason Rudolph, and this was suddenly a game again at 38-30 with 2:53 left. The Titans converted a pair of 2-point conversions.

The Colts only threw 10 passes at this point, but Anthony Richardson did at least deliver an accurate throw on his 11th attempt to convert a 3rd-and-8 at the 2-minute warning, or else we might have seen a real attempt at this 31-point comeback, a true rarity in NFL history.

But by the time the Titans got the ball back, there were just 3 seconds left and they were 89 yards away from the end zone while still needing another conversion just to force overtime. Rudolph threw one of the most charitable interceptions you’ll ever see to finally end it. But what a weird finish and game overall.

The Colts (7-8) are still kicking and have a real shot at finishing 9-8 again while still missing the playoffs.

Giants at Falcons: Penix Will Always Remember His First

I hope someone pulled rookie quarterback Michael Penix Jr. aside after his first NFL start and win and reminded him they won’t all be this easy. You can’t count on your defense intercepting two passes for touchdowns from a quarterback like Drew Lock every week. Those returns were even longer than any offensive play the Falcons had as their longest gain was 22 yards.

But it was a 34-7 blowout, Penix didn’t take any sacks, his first interception was 100% on Kyle Pitts, and you can’t really argue with the results. But we’ll see how he does against Jayden Daniels next Sunday night as the Falcons now control their own destiny for the NFC South again.

Jaguars at Raiders: Vegas Wins (Sorta?)

The Raiders ended their 10-game losing streak with a rare comeback win against exactly the caliber of team you’d expect them to finally beat in the Jaguars. It was watching a coach (Antonio Pierce) with a 1-10 record at 4QC attempts against a quarterback (Mac Jones) with a 3-15 record in such games, so something had to give.

In the end, it was the Raiders getting the win, but is it really a win when you give the Giants (2-13) a clear path to the No. 1 pick in the draft now? Not that there’s a huge quarterback prize waiting for them in April if the draft experts are to be trusted, but the Raiders probably aren’t going to control the top of the draft now.

Next week: Five game days from Wednesday-Monday. I think we’re peaking early again on Christmas, and I also think it’s going to be the Chiefs and Ravens winning again like Saturday. Seahawks-Bears is Thursday night, so we’ll see if the Bears can ever end this losing streak before 2025. The Saturday triple-header truly looks like a bad waste of my time on the couch, but I guess Broncos-Bengals is the highlight in the middle. That doesn’t leave much for Sunday, but Packers-Vikings is a good one, and SNF is Falcons-Commanders, which takes on new intrigue of course. Lions will try to destroy the 49ers on MNF to end the week in an NFC Championship Game rematch.

2024 NFL Stat Oddity: Week 7

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

I loved the NFL’s Week 7 schedule more than I probably loved the games themselves on Sunday. It wasn’t bad, and most of the top games delivered, but it definitely felt like a return to a lot of weak offense around the league.

 It’s also been oddly one-sided as just four games had a comeback opportunity going into Monday night’s double-header that should hopefully add to that total with Baltimore’s shaky closing abilities and the Chargers just generally being the Chargers.

But that’s a low number of close games despite four teams coming back from a 10-0 deficit to win (Jaguars, Lions, Colts, and Bills). The only fourth-quarter lead changes happened in the two NFC North games.

There were also many quarterback injuries in games, including the one that most people had no problem seeing. That doesn’t mean you wished for it, but you certainly aren’t going to shed a tear or think of it as a loss for the team.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Lions at Vikings: Game of the Week

With the 49ers falling apart, these NFC North games are turning into the biggest ones in the NFC this season, and Week 7 was one hell of a time to test out the Lions and Vikings. We got to see the Vikings after a bye week, and the Lions right after losing Aidan Hutchinson last week.

This 31-29 game managed to exceed the hype. The Lions failed on one of the worst fake punts you’ll ever see to start the game, then lost David Montgomery to an injury and trailed 10-0. Hard to start worse than that.

But Jared Goff completed his first 15 passes, Jahmyr Gibbs broke off a long touchdown run, and the Lions soon led 21-10 at halftime. I liked Detroit in this one because it already has two games of experience late last season against Brian Flores’ defense. They wouldn’t be as shocked by it as these other teams have been this year.

But that doesn’t mean Goff wasn’t under pressure often and had to carve up the blitz. He took 4 sacks and fumbled twice (neither lost) in the game, so it was a tough one. But he hung in there and completed 22-of-25 passes for 280 yards as he is playing as well as any quarterback right now.

Sam Darnold actually had some similar numbers in this game with 22-of-27 for 259 yards and 4 sacks. Justin Jefferson had another big game against the Lions, including a touchdown in the third quarter to make it 21-17.

But while Montgomery returned to the game, it wasn’t for the best. With 6:00 left, Montgomery lost the ball on a run and the Vikings scooped it up for a stunning 36-yard touchdown to take a 29-28 lead with 5:50 left. Huge miss on the 2-point conversion, however.

The Lions went three-and-out with Goff getting sacked on third down again. The Vikings could have ran out the clock on offense, but they too went three-and-out. Gibbs took over instead of Montgomery for the game-winning drive and delivered a huge moment with the drive’s first 34 yards. Amon-Ra St. Brown caught a 14-yard pass, and the Lions were in field goal range.

I know Dan Campbell is as aggressive as they come, but I didn’t love the conservative approach with conceding the long field goal. I’d want to get as close as possible for an unproven pro kicker in Jake Bates, the UFL standout. But from 44 yards away, Bates delivered on the biggest kick of his brief NFL career to put the Lions up 31-29.

Darnold had 15 seconds left at his own 30. He got the ball to midfield, and I’m not sure an illegal formation penalty on a spike with 1 second left (debatable) shouldn’t just be a game-ending penalty with a 10-second runoff. That felt fishy. But the Vikings had one last chance for a Hail Mary, and you never know with Jefferson down there. However, it ended in a fitting way as the Lions sacked Darnold on his ass to end the game and escape with the win.

In the end, the big plays by the Lions were too much for Minnesota to overcome. But I’m looking forward to the other NFC North clashes this year when the Packers get involved too.

Chiefs at 49ers: Super Bowl Rematch Sees These Teams Further Apart as Injuries Mount

To date, the only direct Super Bowl rematch was Dallas vs. Buffalo in 1992-93. With the way these teams are going, we won’t see another in February. Injuries are doing their damage, but the Chiefs remain the NFL’s last unbeaten at 6-0, winners of 12 straight, while the 49ers are flailing at 3-4 after this 28-18 loss at home despite being a 2.5-point favorite.

That means Patrick Mahomes continues to be the ultimate underdog with an 11-3 SU record, but this game was little about him. This was a showcase for the defense, and even if you acknowledge the injuries for the 49ers, they still had talent on that field and the system and mind of Kyle Shanahan calling plays. The Chiefs forced Brock Purdy into one of his roughest games in the NFL as he was intercepted three times, including a total headscratcher in the end zone in the fourth quarter when the 49ers trailed 21-12. Even if he wasn’t pressured as he threw it, that pass looked like it was going right to the defender either way.

Mahomes also had two interceptions in this game, but while he’s had some headscratchers this year, it’s hard to say he did wrong on a tipped pass at the line and a play where the receiver (Xavier Worthy) fell on his route. There were at least four Chiefs who slipped on Mahomes’ incompletions in the game.

But this is the value of the Chiefs in 2024. Even when the team is turning it over multiple times or doing something silly like a fake punt that failed miserably, they overcome it with their defense, and they still score a fair number of points. They scored 28 points in this one with three of those touchdown drives from long distance.

Mahomes’ best play was as a runner when it was a tight 14-12 game. He tightrope-walked the sideline and stayed in bounds for a 33-yard run that set up his first touchdown run since 2022 on a 4th-and-goal at the 1 to make it 21-12.

Still, it’s wild to see the injuries for these teams. Both starting running backs (Christian McCaffrey and Isiah Pacheco) were out. The Chiefs were already missing their top wideouts (Rashee Rice and Hollywood Brown), and then their new de-facto No. 1, JuJu Smith-Schuster, left the game early after aggravating his hamstring. The 49ers lost Deebo Samuel quickly to an illness, Brandon Aiyuk was knocked out with a potentially serious injury, and Jauan Jennings, who actually leads the team in receiving yards before this game, was already inactive. Just a mess.

But the Chiefs still found ways to score four touchdowns and actually were leading by 16 points before a San Francisco touchdown made it a 28-18 final. That final score by the Chiefs got them to 28 points, the first time they scored that much during this 12-game winning streak.

That just creates a new record, however. The Chiefs are the first team in NFL history to win 12 straight games without scoring more than 28 points in any of them. Their next opponent (Raiders) is the last team to beat them, but this season is beyond fucked if that ends up being their first loss in 2024.

It’s coming eventually with the way they’re playing, but they were still impressive enough in this game. Not everyone can do that to the 49ers, injuries or not.

Texans at Packers: My Preseason Hype Teams Played the Walk-Off FG Finish I Expected

I’ve been high on the Texans and Packers as “new powers” in the league since February really. I was looking forward to this one since we probably won’t get many games between Jordan Love and C.J. Stroud, but I was stunned at just how well Green Bay limited the Houston passing game.

The Packers have feasted on turnovers this year while still giving up their share of yards and points. But this was an impressive performance where they really held Stroud in check without a single takeaway. They held him to 86 passing yards on 21 throws, and they sacked him 4 times while flustering him all day. The Texans scored on a lot of short fields and couldn’t really sustain offense.

On the other side, Jordan Love had one of those mixed games where he made some “wow” throws, but he had a few more picks, and he couldn’t get some of his best receivers going against this pass defense.

But it was a close game as I expected. I picked the Texans to win because I trust Stroud more than Love in those moments. Sure enough, Stroud saved probably his best throw of the game for a late third down when the Texans were driving in a 21-19 game late. But the Packers had all of their timeouts, and the Texans failed to get the touchdown or a first down to run out the clock for their field goal. They had to settle for taking a 22-21 lead with 1:44 left.

A lead is a lead, but that’s not a very safe one with that much time left. However, I wanted to see how Love would fare here as we have seen him struggle to come up with a field goal in these moments. Think of last year in games like Atlanta, Denver, or San Francisco in the playoffs. He was only 2-8 at comeback opportunities before Sunday.

Also, the Packers have been going through kickers like crazy, so you had to wonder how newly signed Brandon McManus would do. I know him best from Denver, and he’s been an adequate enough kicker in his career.

But Love had to get him in range, and that didn’t prove to be a big problem this time. He marched the offense 44 yards in a hurry. McManus was left with a 45-yard kick to win it, and after an icing attempt, he delivered the goods for a 24-22 win. That’s a quality one for the Packers this year.

Jets at Steelers: Tomlin Knew

For the last six weeks, I’ve basically come on here and said that I’m not impressed with what Justin Fields is doing in the Pittsburgh offense. He looked a lot like the quarterback from Chicago in that he’s slow with his decisions, he rifles too many throws, doesn’t make the touch passes on time, he’s a magnet for sacks and fumbles, and he’s possibly the least clutch QB of the 21st century.

Yet, the NFL groupthink seemed to get stronger every week that Fields is now good, and the Steelers would be crazy to bench him for old Russell Wilson. They kept citing the 4-2 record, even though the Steelers had not won a game when the opponent scored more than 13 points all season. The offense, including Fields himself, had a lot of mediocre rankings as well. These were results you could certainly improve on with a quarterback of Wilson’s experience. He only was out because of his calf. He was going to be the Week 1 starter otherwise.

So, I was always hoping for Mike Tomlin to come to his senses and start Wilson, but I was skeptical he’d actually do it because of the team’s record. Yet, Tomlin had the balls this week to defy that national NFL groupthink and go with Wilson. People created silly stats like the “first 4-2 quarterback to get benched” when it’s not even the first time in Pittsburgh history. Joe Gilliam was benched for Terry Bradshaw in 1974 despite starting 4-1-1, a better record than 4-2. But I guess since it’s not exactly 4-2, they think their insignificant stat has meaning. Screw that.

I still liked the Jets to win the game Sunday night, but that’s because I had much higher expectations for Aaron Rodgers and that offense after a good showing (kicker aside) against Buffalo last week, and the addition of Davante Adams via trade. Sure enough, Rodgers threw his first pass to Rodgers, but the receiver couldn’t pull it in, and he finished with just 3 catches for 30 yards on 9 targets as Allen Lazard and Garrett Wilson looked better in that offense.

Well, Wilson was fine until the third quarter when he popped an easy catch into the air for an interception that was returned to the 1. There’s your game changer. Rodgers didn’t have a good game and especially not a good second half, but that second pick was not his fault at all. The Jets just have many issues.

As for Wilson, he no doubt got off to a bad start. After he attempted to kill Earthworm Jim on back-to-back plays, I thought he really did go The Full McNabb with 2011 Vikings vibes. Someone sign Christian Ponder.

But games are 60 minutes, and we know even in Russ’ prime he could start a game ugly. Before you knew it, he had as many passing yards at halftime as Fields had in half of his full games this season. Wilson throws with more touch, he gives his receivers more opportunities down the field, and he makes better and faster decisions with the ball than Fields. Did he get lucky on a few passes? Sure, but it was his first game in 10 months, and his first with Pittsburgh. Do you remember how Rodgers looked in his first games of the last two seasons with New York, or Tom Brady’s debut in Tampa Bay? It was worse than this.

Wilson did a very nice job, and he showed he was mobile enough to only take 1 sack on the night. He also didn’t throw any picks. Justin Fields has literally never had a start in the NFL where he threw no picks and didn’t take multiple sacks. Wilson did that in his first game with Pittsburgh. He also didn’t fumble like Fields did weekly. The running game also didn’t die with him in there as Najee Harris continues to look highly motivated these last two games. George Pickens also caught his first touchdown of the season.

Russ had a definite huge impact on the offense, and he feels more in control at the line than Fields ever did. He won’t run as fast as Fields, but he rarely needs to. That’s not the kind of quarterback play that’s going to take you far, and Tomlin understands that. I think benching Fields will prove to be one of his smartest moves in years.

The quarterback who actually looked too old and slow on Sunday night was Rodgers. Is he going to trade Wilson next after that dropped pass turned pick? They’re 2-5 and fading fast even in a weakened AFC.

But Sunday night was a great one for Tomlin and anyone who didn’t see what the fuss was with Fields all these weeks.

Titans at Bills: Box Score Blowout Doesn’t Tell the Story

The numbers are going to make this one look like a boring rout, a 34-10 blowout where Josh Allen threw for over 300 yards, Amari Cooper caught a touchdown in his team debut, and the Titans still struggled to score with Mason Rudolph starting for an injured Will Levis (AC joint).

Those things are all true, but this was a tough game for Buffalo deep into the third quarter. The Bills went three-and-out 3 times in the first quarter and fell behind 10-0. Cooper dropped his first target. Rudolph was outplaying Allen.

But the Titans really screwed themselves to start the second half when they went for a 4th-and-2 at their own 44 and Tony Pollard was stuffed for a big loss. Why would they do that with a 10-7 lead? The offense was not thriving to the point where you could trust them to convert and actually turn it into points.

The defense was playing well, and Buffalo was struggling on offense. This just gave them a huge boost as Allen took the field 41 yards away from the end zone and the drive ended with Cooper scoring. The Bills led the rest of the game. Terrible decision by the Titans to go for it.

The Bills padded some stats late with the game in hand, including a 16-yard touchdown run after the 2-minute warning. But the Titans had a shot for most of this game. Far from your normal 34-10 rout.

Seahawks at Falcons: Surprising Rout

These teams have played many close games, and you just expected that sort of finish in a passing fest between Geno Smith and Kirk Cousins. Actually, I thought it’d be a passing clinic with Geno facing a defense without a pass rush, but he moved around well and threw for 181 yards at halftime. I just didn’t expect him to barely finish the game with 200 yards as the run game and defense showed up for Seattle to finish the Falcons off in maybe their worst team performance of the season.

Just when you thought Cousins would make it a one-score game while trailing 24-14 in the fourth quarter, the Seahawks had the plot twist with a strip-sack and recovery for a touchdown to make it 31-14 with 12:4 6 left. Cousins threw another pick on the next drive, and we ended up seeing the first NFL completion of rookie Michael Penix’s career before this one ended 34-14.

No quarterback controversy in Atlanta (yet), but this one surprised me as I thought for sure the Falcons would do more damage against that Seattle defense in the dome.

Eagles at Giants: The Saquon Revenge Game Delivers

Revenge games can be overrated but running back Saquon Barkley had one of the best you’ll ever see for the Eagles against his Giants. He really carried the offense with 176 yards on just 17 carries, and he scored the game’s first touchdown, which might have been enough given the Giants could only muster a field goal in the 28-3 blowout.

That left Jalen Hurts with an easy job as he only had to throw for 114 yards. The game was avert-your-eyes bad for pass blocking as all four quarterbacks who played took sacks, including backup Kenny Pickett, and there were 13 sacks total between the teams.

Naturally, Daniel Jones took the worst of it with 7 sacks in a game where he didn’t have left tackle Andrew Thomas (surgery). Jones finished with 43 yards on 28 pass plays, which is pathetic even for his low standards.

The Giants punted 11 times, so they were even absurdly boring in blowout fashion. At least throw some picks. Risk something.

Bengals at Browns: When Losing Is Good

The Browns got Nick Chubb back for the first time in over a year, and they lost Deshaun Watson for the season to a torn Achilles on a non-contact play. All in all, that sounds like a great day, right?

Oddly enough, Chubb scored a touchdown on the drive where Watson was injured right before the half. Almost as if karma was taking over and the fortune was changing for Cleveland. But I thought it was odd before the game that Jameis Winston was announced as the No. 3 quarterback, demoted for the young Dorian Thompson-Robinson. What did Jameis do to get demoted? I thought he was the best quarterback on this roster.

It may have cost the Browns too, because DTR stunk off the bench. He completed 11-of-24 passes for 82 yards with multiple picks. A 34-yard run was his longest play on a day the Browns couldn’t actually run the ball on Cincinnati, a defense that has done a huge turnaround these last two weeks thanks to playing lines like the Giants and Browns in 2024.

But DTR was injured, allowing Winston to play in the fourth quarter. But it was too late by then. The Bengals started the game with a 100-yard kickoff return touchdown, but that Joe Burrow-led offense managed just two touchdowns in this 21-14 final. Another ho-hum performance where the Bengals were fortunate to be playing a bad team.

But the Watson story is over for 2024, and maybe that could help the Browns move on from him faster. Cleveland players supported Watson after the game and criticized the fans for cheering his injury. I could see where they’re coming from as teammates, and probably as players who hope they aren’t cheered while injured down the road. But they should also understand why fans feel that way about Watson.

Of course, I wouldn’t expect Winston or Myles Garrett to be the voice of reason on this topic. Winston is especially a bad messenger for this, and Garrett should know better as someone who is supposed to be the face of the franchise.

But it was nice to see Chubb back and in the end zone. More of that going forward.

Patriots vs. Jaguars: Do I Get on a Soapbox Again About That Strategy?

I didn’t get up to watch this one and see the Jaguars explode back from a 10-0 hole, but I was awake to see the 2-point conversion strategy become a talking point again. The Patriots were down 25-10, scored a touchdown with 8:22 left, decided to go for 2, didn’t get it, and they trailed by 9+ for the rest of the game, which eventually became a 32-16 loss after a poor finish.

I am consistently against going for 2 on the first touchdown as it is the strategy more likely to lead you into needing one onside kick recovery, if not two, and I never want anything to do with that hopeless endeavor. I also think the later in the game, the worse of a strategy it is. This wasn’t super late, but you have to keep in mind the Patriots hadn’t scored since the first quarter.

Also, when people talk about having “more information” aspect of it, do they ever consider things like the fact that the Patriots never ran a play from deeper than the Jacksonville 16 in this game? Seriously. Their failed 2-point conversion attempt was their only snap inside the final 15 yards of opponent territory in the game. Not exactly much practice at running your red zone and goal line packages in this game. Instead you’re completely cold to that area in the game, and now you have to make this crucial play or you’re down 2 scores with half a quarter left. Just something to consider that I never see considered. I don’t think confidence gets considered enough, not to mention the hopelessness felt from being down 2 scores.

But I don’t feel like getting into it any more over an inconsequential game between two of the worst teams in the league. I just know when the Patriots forced a punt and got the ball back with 3:58 left, it sure as hell would have been nicer if they were down 25-17 instead of 25-16. That way you could even punt on 4th-and-26 instead of having to go for it and for sure ending the game early with a big loss.

At least give me a chance in a one-score game. But the Patriots should again feel some encouragement with Drake Maye, who threw for 276 yards, 2 more touchdowns, and only took 2 sacks on 37 pass attempts. I’m not sure what sitting behind Jacoby Brissett did for him, but I’m glad we’re past that part of the season.

That still doesn’t mean I want to wake up at 9:30 A.M. to watch the post-Belichick Patriots play overseas against the London Jaguars.

Raiders at Rams: The “If a Bear Shits in the Woods…” Game of the Week

It’s a little early in the season to just not care at all about these teams, but that’s where I am already. I just don’t see either being part of the playoff picture. Matthew Stafford and Gardner Minshew both threw for 154 yards in this game, though Minshew did his work off the bench after starter Aidan O’Connell left with an injury.

But the Raiders kept trying to chip away with field goals while the Rams missed potentially a huge 35-yard field goal with 10:11 left that would have made it a 23-12 lead. Instead, Minshew later got the ball back in a 20-15 game with 1:39 left. If he truly is the Ryan Fitzpatrick of the 2020s, he lived up to the reputation with a game-ending interception on the third play of the drive. Good pressure on the drive by Jared Verse, who I guess is still the frontrunner for Defensive Rookie of the Year.

Dolphins at Colts: Neither Team Had Their Best Quarterback

Tough loss for Miami (2-4) if they were hoping to get back in this thing with Tua Tagovailoa maybe returning at quarterback next week. They were up 10-0 and Anthony Richardson couldn’t hit the broad side of a barn with his passes.

But the Dolphins gave up a big completion before halftime, which led to a field goal for the Colts. Then in the third quarter, they really coughed up the game to the Colts. Raheem Mostert lost a fumble, which led to a 28-yard touchdown drive, then Alec Ingold lost a fumble in the red zone in a 10-10 game.

The Colts had the ball to start the fourth and Richardson led what is technically his first game-winning drive in the NFL, ending with a 22-yard field goal with 8:41 left. But the Dolphins lost Tyler Huntley to injury, and he was replaced by the dreadful Tim Boyle. Kicker Jason Sanders missed a 54-yard tying field goal with 5:14 left.

After the Colts added a field goal to make it 16-10, a move you can get away with against Boyle, it was a poorly-run 2-minute drill for the Dolphins that didn’t make it past the Indy 33 before Boyle sailed his 4th-down pass out of bounds. Either he’s incredibly inaccurate and tried to get that pass to the sidelines, or he didn’t realize it was fourth down.

Either way, I hate entertaining either of these teams for wild card spots. This is not good football. A game between Joe Flacco and Tua might have been alright though.

Panthers at Commanders: Please, Spare My Favorite Rookie

The crazy thing is Jayden Daniels left in the first quarter with a rib injury and the Commanders still won 40-7. The Washington defense still matched the Carolina team in scoring thanks to a horrific Andy Dalton pick-six starting the scoring in the game. But Marcus Mariota replaced Daniels very well, and it was business as usual for this offense.

I think that says a lot more about how bad the Panthers are (again) than anything about Daniels being a system quarterback. You can’t teach his 46-yard run to anyone, but Mariota is a good fit for that offense.

I just hope Daniels is okay to go next week in the showdown with Chicago and fellow rookie Caleb Williams. It was clear there was no need to rush him back in this game with the score lopsided so quickly.

Next week: Vikings-Rams on TNF. Better than putting Sam Darnold in prime time a week later when the ghosts are out. Eagles-Bengals is a nice game for teams who peaked in 2022. I hope they #FreeJameis against Baltimore in Cleveland. The Falcons-Bucs rematch could be something after the first game was excellent. We need Jayden Daniels healthy for that Chicago game to save the late-window slate. Cowboys-49ers is oddly more interesting now that both teams are struggling. Giants-Steelers means we get to live the Russ experience in prime time again, but I see that as T.J. Watt’s launch game towards DPOY since he gets to face Daniel Jones. Overall, a huge step down from the Week 7 marquee games.

NFL Stat Oddity: 2023 Wild Card Weekend

~ Scott ~ 3 Comments

And that’s why we don’t call it Super Wild Card weekend, because not much was super about that 3-day trek of games. Sure, we saw dazzling playoff debuts for C.J. Stroud and Jordan Love, the Detroit Lions finally won a playoff game for the first time since 1991, and the fraud department was busy sending home teams who didn’t stand a chance of going the distance (Dolphins, Steelers, Eagles), or it exposed the defenses who beefed up their stats against the weakest opponents (Cowboys and Browns) and folded when it mattered most.

On those fronts, it was a strong week of action. But if you told me every home team would win except for Dallas, the team that won 16 games in a row at home and usually in dominant fashion, I might not have believed you.

I definitely wouldn’t have believed you if you said there wouldn’t be a single lead change in any game after the 12:00 mark in the second quarter of Browns-Texans on Saturday.

But that happened too. The other 5 games were all wire-to-wire wins, putting this postseason on pace for some history in that department if teams don’t start showing up with better efforts.

I’m still getting over the flu, but a good night of sleep is one hell of a dose of self-medication for that. I feel good enough to share some thoughts on these 6 games before I go back for more sleep and to start preparing data, previews, and picks for the divisional round, my favorite weekend of the NFL year.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Browns at Texans: When the Young Kid Puts Down Old Yeller

We might look back one day and laugh at the time Joe Flacco, days before his 39th birthday, was a road favorite over C.J. Stroud in a playoff game. But as someone who picked Cleveland to win a tight one, I’m using this game as a good lesson on what to take away from a recent meeting before a playoff rematch.

The season-long trends mattered more than the recent trends where Flacco was dealing (albeit with a high interception rate), and Stroud was kind of mediocre down the stretch outside of a great job in Indianapolis to get into the playoffs.

But Houston’s ability to scheme receivers open, especially at home, combined with Stroud’s already advanced skills at throwing off platform and giving his guys chances proved to overwhelm a Cleveland defense that I feared was a paper tiger all along. In the playoffs, you aren’t facing Joe Burrow on a bad calf, or a slumping Ryan Tannehill, or getting Matt Canada fired again in Pittsburgh, or feasting on Arizona rookie Clayton Tune.

There was just something fishy about a defense that allowed at least 22 points in every road game this year, and you can’t blame that all on their league-leading 37 turnovers as that has been a problem all year for Cleveland. Blame the offense on the Pittsburgh loss for Deshaun Watson’s 2 turnovers getting returned for touchdowns, sure, but that was not the norm for them.  

Turnovers ended up being a story in this game, but Houston was already up 24-14 in the third quarter before Flacco had his back-to-back pick-sixes that crushed any hope left for Cleveland. But things were already looking bad before that as Myles Garrett contributed more offsides penalties than any impact plays on defense.

Both offenses were hitting plays early as this one was on pace for over 1,000 total yards. But after Kareem Hunt scored his second touchdown to give the Browns a 14-10 lead, the Texans answered back with a 1-play drive that saw backup tight end Brevin Jordan leak open for a 76-yard touchdown. Houston led 17-0 with 12:00 left in the second quarter and we literally never saw another lead change the rest of wild card weekend.

The Browns were stopped on 3 straight drives to end the half as pressure got to Flacco. When these teams met in Week 16 and Cleveland won easily, there were multiple lessons we should have taken away from that game and applied to this one:

  • Obviously, having Stroud back at quarterback was huge, but Houston also didn’t have top pass rushers Will Anderson and Jonathan Greenard in Week 16. They were back and Anderson had 1-of-4 sacks of Flacco.
  • Pressure got to Flacco on that fateful first pick-six, and he tried to throw the ball away, only to have it returned 82 yards for a touchdown by Steven Nelson.
  • Cleveland’s lack of a running game in Week 16 was a problem again as they only produced 17 carries for 43 yards this time. Hunt was stuffed on a key 3rd-and-1 run, which led to Flacco’s next pick-six on a 4th-and-2. If the running game is adequate, he’s never throwing in that desperate situation and blowing the game open at 38-14.
  • Flacco overcame his running game woes in Week 16 with huge plays to Amari Cooper, who had 265 yards. But he injured his heel that game and we didn’t know how he’d play in his return game. He finished with 59 yards and was clearly not 100%, and that didn’t help Cleveland’s cause.

Cooper’s decline of 206 receiving yards is the 5th-largest drop in a playoff rematch in NFL history by a receiver.

Flacco started the game well, but the cumulative pressure got to him, and the double whammy of picks was a game destroyer, making the fourth quarter pretty forgettable as Houston won 45-14.

But you did see the value in this game of having a young quarterback with mobility as Stroud could evade pressure and feather the ball to his receivers with accuracy. The barely mobile Flacco tried to throw one away and it ended up going back the other way for a game-changing touchdown.

I still stand by the data that says there’s no correlation between two team’s turnover margins and what their turnover margin will be in a playoff matchup against each other. Even at extreme levels like the gap in this game, the turnover-prone team usually beats the turnover-averse team.

But there will be no improbable Flacco Super Bowl run this year, and the Cleveland defense is in fact not even close to being a legendary unit. The history made here is that Stroud only needed a half to tie the record for touchdown passes by a rookie in a playoff game with 3.

Dolphins at Chiefs: Still Wish It Was Colder?

My favorite bet for the entire week was Dolphins under 19.5 points. When they usually can’t get to 20 points on the road against good teams in fair weather, how were they going to do it in the 4th-coldest game in NFL history at minus-4 degrees at kickoff?

One 53-yard touchdown pass to Tyreek Hill was all the Miami offense had to muster. The Chiefs were excellent on defense as that was the only 20-yard play they allowed in the game.

When Mike McDaniel thought a 22-20 win over Dallas was enough for his players to tell the media to (with all due respect) “fvck off” about his team’s record against winning teams, that’s what my reaction was all year long to people who thought this team was a serious Super Bowl contender and not just a paper tiger.

McDaniel has now lost 10 straight road games to playoff teams.

All I can add on this loss is that it’s the kind of performance that should make Miami hold off on giving Tua Tagovailoa a record-setting contract extension, because you know that’s what his agent will be seeking as the next quarterback due to get paid. I’m not saying they have to part ways, but I’d be very careful about making that deal happen. He just doesn’t get the job done in games like this, and guess what, Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes don’t look like they’re going anywhere in the AFC anytime soon. Same with Lamar Jackson, and oh yeah, now you have to think about C.J. Stroud in Houston too.

Tua’s QBR of 15.8 made him the only quarterback under 40.0 this week.

But enough about Miami. I want to talk about this Kansas City performance the rest of the way. I thought Patrick Mahomes played very well, and I would not have guessed he’d have that kind of night based on how bad the first 2 snaps looked. But one big 3rd-and-10 conversion to Travis Kelce, who held on that time, and the Chiefs were off to a strong start. Mahomes had a few big scrambles too, and he even cracked his helmet on the frozen night and did not miss a play.

Mahomes did not take any sacks, and the only turnover was an obligatory fumble late in the game by CEH with the game out of reach for Miami. I thought Mahomes had a good read of the blitz from Miami, and he threw the ball away when he had to. The only drawback was the red-zone performance where the Chiefs settled for 4 field goals, looking similar to Week 17 when they kicked 6 field goals against the Bengals. That can catch up with you against a better team than Miami like they’ll play going forward. It also helped that the Dolphins were so injured on defense, which is why I think they just kept blitzing Mahomes, which is usually a no-no.

Throwing some deep balls on third downs to Mecole Hardman, who has the worst ball-tracking skills ever, is another dangerous tactic I don’t want to see the Chiefs continue this postseason against better teams. But they had no problem beating Miami without playing their best.

Now we get a real road game for this team and against a Buffalo team that arguably plays them better than anyone. It could be another classic.

Just glad we don’t have to entertain the Dolphins as contenders anymore this season.

Packers at Cowboys: Doomsday in Dallas Used to Mean Something Different

My preseason Super Bowl pick was Dallas going on a revenge tour, beating the 49ers in San Francisco in the title game, and ultimately losing to the Ravens in the Super Bowl. Well, Baltimore fans better get nervous, because I literally never pick the correct Super Bowl winner, and now my loser is gone after a shocking first-round exit at home in a 48-32 loss.

In Mike McCarthy’s best shot yet to become the first coach to win a Super Bowl with multiple teams, he instead became the first coach to lose to a No. 7 seed. We know the Packers always gave the Cowboys fits during Aaron Rodgers’ tenure, but we might have to expect more years of misery at the hands of Jordan Love after this game.

Right from his first pass on the opening drive, Love came out smoking. In fact, Green Bay’s decision to receive after winning the toss was one of the best coaching decisions all weekend. You need to set the tone when you play a front-running team that is used to leading like Dallas. All the pressure was on Dallas to win this game as the No. 2 seed, and Green Bay was immediately able to take a lead and build that pressure after consuming half the quarter.

Love was masterful in his first playoff start on the road, completing 16-of-21 passes for 272 yards and 3 touchdowns. He had no sacks or turnovers, and his favorite receiver was the open one. Jayden Reed led the team in receiving categories this year, but he had no catches in this game. Christian Watson was the expected No. 1 coming into the season, but he is always injured. He returned this weekend and had only a 9-yard catch against a defense he broke out against in 2022 when he scored 3 touchdowns. It was Romeo Doubs with the dominant game as he had 151 yards and a touchdown. Rookie tight end Luke Musgrave also broke wide open for a 38-yard touchdown as Matt LaFleur was having a great time roasting his predecessor.

I’ve said for 20 years since those pesky 2001-04 Patriots teams won 3 Super Bowls that it can be really advantageous to have a group of talented receivers with no clear No. 1 receiver. That was when the Patriots played dink-and-dunk passing with Troy Brown, David Givens, David Patten, and Deion Branch. Mix in your backs and tight ends, and defenses couldn’t go into games on a weekly basis and figure out who to focus on or draw more attention to with double teams. Technically, it was Troy Brown early on in that run and Deion Branch later, but any of them could get open and do something after the catch on any given play.

The 2023 Packers are kind of enjoying that advantage right now with this young group of receivers, including Doubs, Watson, Reed, and Dontayvion Wicks. Throw in a veteran back and Dallas killer like Aaron Jones (118 yards and 3 touchdowns), and the Packers had a variety of ways to make Dallas look silly.

Similar to the Browns, the Cowboys had some paper tiger warnings on defense since they padded their stats against awful offenses like the Jets, Panthers, Patriots, and those sack merchant lines for the Giants and Commanders (twice each). You saw Brock Purdy shred them in San Francisco. You saw Jalen Hurts at least put up one great game against them when the Eagles were playing better earlier in the year. Even Geno Smith went into Dallas and put on a passing clinic and 35 points, but that usually doesn’t happen to Dallas in Dallas.

But the Cowboys were rough on defense, and they were not prepared for a team with a quarterback who came in red hot like Love. Since the Dallas offense is usually so efficient, the Cowboys also faced the fewest drives of any defense this year, so their per-drive numbers were not elite this season.

But I’m not sure anyone imagined a 48-32 game in favor of the Packers. Worse, it was 27-0 at one point after maybe the worst start to a game in Dak Prescott’s career. You knew it was going to be a long day when he had 0 passing yards in the first quarter for the first time in his career. From the opening drive you could see he was just a little off with CeeDee Lamb after they were so good down the stretch this year. Then Jaire Alexander beat Brandin Cooks to an interception, and the Packers only needed to go 19 yards to make it 14-0.

The Cowboys continued to stubbornly stick with the run on early downs, and Prescott was not getting into a rhythm and converting enough third downs. Down 20-0 at the 2-minute warning, that’s when disaster struck as Dak did not see Darnell Savage on a pick-six that was returned 64 yards to put the Packers up 27-0.

Dallas was fortunate to get a touchdown on the final play of the half after it clearly looked live that there was a false start or something funky pre-snap. But nothing was called, and Jake Ferugson caught the first of what would be three touchdowns on the day.

But the Packers are not the Chargers. They weren’t going to blow a 27-0 lead. This might have been a little more interesting had Dallas pulled off a double touchdown score, but the Cowboys were held to a field goal to start the third quarter, making it 27-10.

Fox’s Greg Olsen put it perfectly. A comeback like this isn’t possible if your defense can’t get stops. I’ve written about this several times now since Super Bowl 51, including this 2018 post about Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady. It’s not like Brady is the only quarterback who could make a 25-point comeback in a playoff game. He just may be the only one who is lucky enough to have his defense hold a juggernaut offense with the MVP at quarterback to no more points the rest of the way and to even force a short field on a fumble.

I’m not deflecting the blame from Dak in this game. He blew it. But it’s also true that Dallas scored 32 points over its final 7 drives, and we might have had a game here if the Dallas defense didn’t allow 3 straight Green Bay touchdown drives to start the second half.

That blown coverage on Musgrave made it 41-16 with 16:27 left in the game, basically asking for Dallas to make the greatest comeback in history at that point. After turning it over on downs, the Cowboys watched the Packers convert a 4th-and-2 for another touchdown to make it 48-16 with 10:23 left. Goodnight, Irene. They couldn’t even get the little 4th-down stop with minimal pressure on both teams at the moment.

But I must say, for being down 32 with just over 10 minutes left, the Cowboys came closer to 8+8+8+8 then you’d ever want to see as the leading team. They didn’t even recover an onside kick. They just used their timeouts, scored quickly, and got the pair of 3-and-outs on defense they needed earlier in the game.

This was an incredible one-handed catch from CeeDee Lamb in the end zone away from Dallas going for 2 to make it 48-40 with just over a minute left. Sure, they’d need to then recover an onside kick and score another touchdown with a 4th straight 2-point conversion just to force overtime, but getting to 48-40 with an onside chance after it was 48-16 not that long ago? That would have been an impressive rally attempt.

But the game should have never gotten that out of hand in the first place, and that is why I wouldn’t be surprised if McCarthy gets the axe for this game. It’s also going to be hard to ever trust Dak in a big game after he had his best season, they were healthy for this game, and he and the offense just laid a turd for the first half.

Green Bay getting hot at the right time behind a quarterback playing outstanding ball is good stuff. We don’t see that too often anymore in the NFL playoffs, so we’ll see if he can slay the San Francisco dragon that Aaron Rodgers never could. He already got past the Dallas dragon that tripped up Brett Favre in the 90s.

But these Cowboys are not the Cowboys of the 90s. The fact that Jerry Jones keeps hanging onto those glory hole days and thinking every year is going to end up like that again is why he must annually be so disappointed when his team flops in the playoffs.

But I have to say, even by Jerry’s standards, this flop was the worst one yet, because things were breaking for them this year.

Rams at Lions: Puka Gets a Tug and No Happy Ending

Of all the games this week that should have been high scoring and come down to the final drive, this was the one to pick. In the end, we got an exciting first half with 38 points and both quarterbacks dealing, and then we got 3 field goals and still not a single lead change after halftime as Detroit held on for the 24-23 win.

Yeah, it’s awesome that the Lions finally won a playoff game. But excuse me for being a little bummed out that this game didn’t have more touchdowns or a better dramatic finish. This was the matchup for it with these underwhelming defenses, and they lived up to it early with all the scoring drives. Detroit scored 3 straight touchdowns to begin the game.

I thought Matthew Stafford played very well through the pain of a cut on his hand that left him bloody. He may have saved the game on the final play of the first quarter by converting a 3rd-and-16 with the Lions already up 14-3 and humming along. But some of the red-zone struggles and difficulty of hooking up with Cooper Kupp proved fatal to the Rams in this one. It also didn’t help that Kyren Williams kept leaving for health reasons as the league’s leader in rushing yards per game only put up 61 yards in Detroit. Stafford must have really felt at home, trying to carry a team with minimal rushing support and a defense that was getting shredded.

But by the end of the night, the Lions barely rushed for more yards than the Rams (82 to 68). Both offenses were 3-for-9 on third down. I thought fourth down might play a bigger role in this game with Dan Campbell being much more aggressive than conservative Sean McVay, but both teams were 1-for-1 on fourth downs.

The Rams can probably kick themselves for outgaining the Lions by 91 yards in a game with zero turnovers and still losing 24-23. But that’s what happens you go 0-for-3 in the red zone at scoring touchdowns and kick 3 field goals under 30 yards.

Were any of the field goals the wrong call by McVay? No, they were all 4th and 6 or longer. They were the right decisions at the moment. My beef with McVay in this game is a common one I’ve had for him going back several years now: He blew his timeout management in the second half again.

Stafford took a sack 3 snaps into the third quarter and McVay wasted a timeout on a 3rd-and-11. Save that shit and take the 5-yard delay penalty. The Rams ended up throwing an incomplete pass and punted. He did it again in the fourth quarter before a 3rd-and-8 deep in his own end, down 24-20. More defensible than the first one, I still don’t think it is worth it most of the time in that situation. The Rams ended up converting by a screen pass to Puka Nacua, who was awesome.

You know Nacua is a real one when he can make Kupp look like a secondary receiver in this offense. Puka was outstanding in his playoff debut with 9 catches for 181 yards and a 50-yard touchdown.

Unfortunately, Nacua was also involved in the play of the game that will be remembered most by Rams fans. On 3rd-and-14 at the Detroit 44 with 4:20 left, the Rams were in a tough spot. A conversion is hard there, but at least they could get some yards and try a reasonable go-ahead field goal. Stafford went for the big play to Nacua, and his jersey was grabbed from behind and the pass fell incomplete. Receivers usually get that call but there was no flag this time.

The Rams really had no choice but to punt from their 44, and they were down to just 2 clock stoppages because of the piss-poor clock management earlier. The Lions are good in these situations because they are aggressive under Campbell, and they were able to run out the clock after 2 first downs on pass plays. Amon-Ra St. Brown had a great playoff debut too and got over 100 yards on the night with his 11-yard catch to seal the game.

Goff had a couple of scary plays in this game that serve as reminders for why you don’t like to trust him in big games. But overall, he played well, and the Lions did enough to survive this one. Now they get to host the Buccaneers with a shot at the NFC Championship Game very much in play as they are a home favorite this week.

From no playoff wins in 31 seasons to possibly an NFC Championship Game appearance or more? Crazy stuff for Detroit.

Steelers at Bills: The Standard in Postseason Scoring

The downside to the Steelers making the playoffs has become the quick exit that almost feels inevitable. Pittsburgh lost its fifth playoff game in a row, meaning Mike Tomlin has not won any playoff games in the last 7 seasons (2017-23).

This is also the fifth time under Tomlin that the Steelers allowed at least 31 points in a playoff game while forcing no takeaways. The only team with that many playoff games since the 1970 merger is the Denver franchise, which has done this 6 times. But the Steelers have done it 5 times since 2007.

  • Pittsburgh is the first team in NFL history to allow at least 31 points in 5 straight playoff games.
  • Pittsburgh has allowed 202 points in its last 5 playoff games, the most in any 5-game span in playoff history, surpassing a record they already held with 187 points in 2016-21.
  • Pittsburgh has scored at least 16 points in 29 straight playoff games, extending its NFL record in that area but that’s not making up for the recent blowouts.
  • Pittsburgh is the only NFL team with an active 5-game losing streak in the playoffs where it failed to cover the spread in each game.

Pittsburgh’s best hope in this game was for it to be played during whiteout conditions with heavy snow and wind, increasing the likelihood of randomness like fumbles. But after watching it play out at its rescheduled time on Monday in fairer cold conditions, I’m not so sure Buffalo still doesn’t win comfortably.

Not when Josh Allen had 1 fe”r rushing yard than the 75 yards the duo of Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren combined for. The Steelers were supposed to be the more physical team that leaned on their backs, but James Cook outrushed them too with 79 yards on 18 carries for Buffalo. Most of Allen’s damage was on his 52-yard touchdown run, which featured some really poor tackling from the Steelers, a common theme on the day.

Without T.J. Watt available, the Steelers struggled to force any splash plays against the Bills, who did not even flirt with a turnover. No real dangerous throws from Allen, and they had no fumbles to lose. Since 2017, the Steelers are now 2-13-1 when Watt plays fewer than 50% of the snaps in a game.

It is hard to decide which side of the ball hurt the Steelers more in this one. The offense came out playing scared and taking almost no deep shots to the wide receivers. Pittsburgh’s only 20-yard play in the game was a 33-yard gain by tight end Pat Freiermuth, who fumbled at the end of the play and was fortunate it was ruled to go out of bounds because it sure looked like Buffalo recovered it in bounds.

George Pickens was less fortunate on a fumble that set up Allen for a 29-yard touchdown drive that took one play as he found Dalton Kincaid wide open. When it looked like the Steelers were going to cut the 14-0 lead in half, Mason Rudolph made his worst throw in the red zone to waste Pittsburgh’s longest drive (88 yards) with an interception. Allen made his big touchdown run from there to build a 21-0 lead, a big early hole being the common lead in every Pittsburgh playoff loss during this streak.

A blocked field goal saved this from total blowout territory as that led to a 33-yard touchdown drive before the half ended. But even that sequence showed just how poorly prepared the Steelers are for these big games. The Buffalo punter was injured on the blocked field goal. Instead of using his timeouts to try to make Buffalo punt in the last minute of the half, Tomlin sat on his timeouts and only called one on 2nd-and-17 with 2 seconds left? What good does that do? Allen took a knee to end it. After a first-down sack, the Steelers should have been using those 3 timeouts to get a punt block ready. Just poorly managed all around.

After Rudolph threw his second touchdown of the game to Calvin Austin to make it 24-17 in the fourth quarter, this got a little interesting. But the Bills easily drove for quality play after quality play on a 70-yard drive that ended in another touchdown after awful tackling from Minkah Fitzpatrick and company led to Shakir scoring from 17 yards out to make it 31-17 with 6:27 left.

That’s game. A missed 27-yard field goal by the Bills after the Steelers turned it over on downs is the only reason we aren’t talking up 34 points as the new piss-poor scoring standard for this defense in the postseason.

I mentioned at the beginning that Tomlin hasn’t won a playoff game since the 2016 season. If he returns next season for Year 8 of his playoff win drought, it’ll only be the fourth time a team has done that with a coach in the Super Bowl era. Jim Mora (Saints) and Marvin Lewis (Bengals) infamously never won a playoff game in their career. Don Shula’s 8-year drought in Miami (1974-81) led to a Super Bowl loss in 1982, but that was a different league back then. You didn’t have 7 teams making the playoffs in each conference, and he had multiple seasons where he finished 10-4 and didn’t even make the tournament.

The Steelers shouldn’t have been expected to win this game, especially without Watt, but at what point does hanging onto a streak of non-losing seasons prevent the team from ever getting back to real Super Bowl contention? This is purgatory. There’s no high draft pick and quarterback fix to come out of this season, and it’s not like the effort was all that respectable here. Hell, even Miami lost 34-31 and covered the spread with Skylar Thompson at quarterback in Buffalo in the wild card round last year. They at least forced turnovers.

SOS is supposed to be a distress call for help, but when it comes to the Steelers, it’s like the organization is content with the same old shit.

Eagles at Buccaneers: My Apologies to the 1986 Jets and 2022 Vikings

I just want to start by saying I apologize to the 2022 Vikings for comparing the 2023 Eagles when they were 10-1 to your team. The Vikings actually finished with 13 wins and put up a fight in their home playoff loss to the Giants, which came down to the final drive.

I also have to apologize for comparing the Eagles to the 1986 Jets, the only other team to start 10-1 and not get to 12 wins. The Jets rebounded in time for the playoffs to beat the Chiefs in the wild card round and gave a superior Cleveland team hell in the divisional round in a double overtime loss.

After scoring a record number of points (35) for a Super Bowl loser last year, the Eagles scored a season-low 9 points in a 23-point loss to the Buccaneers in the wild card round, completing their full collapse. We will have a new NFC champion again. Only the 2013-14 Seahawks have repeated since 1999.

They knew it was going to be tough going in without A.J. Brown, but DeVonta Smith stepped up with 8 catches for 148 yards. But the running game was held to just 42 yards on 15 carries after the Eagles were the only team to smack the Bucs for 200 yards in Week 3, which feels like an eternity ago now.

Philadelphia’s tackling also made Pittsburgh’s look good. Was there a tackling ban in Pennsylvania passed over the weekend? This was an atrocious effort from a team that looked like it gave up on the season. Jason Kelce’s career possibly ending on a sour note like this is sad.

My favorite bet in this game was the under (43.5), which hit to wrap up 2023 as a season where the under was 15-5 on Monday nights. Loved that bet all season, but I sure did not expect to see Baker Mayfield throw for 337 yards and 3 touchdowns after he could barely move in Carolina in Week 18. But he looked good, and he’s done something Tom Brady couldn’t: win a playoff game with Todd Bowles as his coach.

But you knew it wasn’t Philly’s night when the Brotherly Shove was stopped on a 2-point conversion in the second quarter when the Eagles got a penalty to put the ball at the 1-yard line. The Bucs got extremely low on the play, and the Eagles didn’t get their normal push, and it helped when you send a linebacker high at Jalen Hurts and grab him by the facemask. That definitely should have been a penalty, but now we’ll wait to see if the league makes any move against this team’s favorite play in the offseason.

I thought for sure we’d get only our second game with a game-winning drive opportunity out of this one, but that went to shit in a hurry late in the third quarter. Down 16-9, Hurts tried too hard on a 3rd-and-6 and found himself retreating to his end zone despite the line of scrimmage being at his 14. Instead of throwing the ball away, he dug the hole deeper and took a safety due to the penalty for intentional grounding, the right call.

That made it 18-9, then two plays later, some more of that horrific tackling left Trey Palmer open for a 56-yard touchdown. I would have tried the 2 to make it 26-9, a three-score game, but the Eagles already looked so beaten down that 25-9 was just fine.

But that little sequence killed any chance of a close finish. Mayfield even hit another blitz with a 23-yard touchdown to Chris Godwin for good measure to make it 32-9.

This is the kind of loss that could get Nick Sirianni fired just one year removed from a Super Bowl loss. Hell, they had the best record in the NFL in Week 12 not even 2 full months ago.

The data always said 10-1 was a mirage. The eye test never passed for this year’s team. But to fall this far so quickly, even I am a little surprised this happened.

The NFC truly does love a flash in the pan.

Next week: I think they saved the best game both days for the night slot with Chiefs-Bills the best choice to close the weekend. After all these runaway games, it sure would be nice to get an epic divisional round much like we got in 2021 when every game was decided at the end with two of the matchups the same (GB-SF and BUF-KC). We’ll see what happens but there is usually at least one road upset in this round.

NFL Stat Oddity: Week 8

~ Scott ~ 13 Comments

I’m not sure what was crazier in the NFL in Week 8. The Broncos finally beat the Chiefs, the Carolina Panthers finally won a game after trailing in the fourth quarter, or Sam Howell only took one sack against the Eagles. Several years have passed since two of those things happened, and Howell’s life has been shortened by several years this season.

Even the Chargers played a game where they led by at least 17 points (3 possessions) for the entire second half. That hadn’t happened in the last 60 games for them.

But Sunday was a streak-killing one around the league.

Just not for the 49ers, who got a 17th-straight game with a touchdown from Christian McCaffrey, their 3rd-straight loss, and Kyle Shanahan fell to 0-37 when trailing by at least 8 points in the fourth quarter. Business as usual there.

But we have a lot of games to cover, and there were 9 games with a comeback opportunity this week. We also had a pair of double-digit deficit comebacks after having none in Week 7 as the Colts (17-7) and Commanders (14-3) blew early leads.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Chiefs at Broncos: Things to Do in Denver When Your Streaks Are Dead

It was bound to happen eventually. The Chiefs would have a bad game, and their streak would be over. Which streak? Well, how about all of them?

  • 16 straight wins vs. Denver Broncos (longest active streak vs. one team) – OVER
  • 40 straight games without losing by more than 4 points (NFL record) – OVER
  • 40 straight games without losing by more than 7 points (4th-longest streak ever) – OVER
  • 40 straight games with a fourth-quarter/overtime lead or tie – OVER
  • 16 straight road division game wins (longest team streak in NFL history) – OVER
  • Patrick Mahomes – 35 straight games with a touchdown pass, including playoffs (longest active streak) – OVER
  • Patrick Mahomes – 16 straight road division game wins as starter (2nd-longest streak for starting quarterback behind only Joe Montana, 20) – OVER

Mahomes was also reportedly 25-0 against teams who were 2 games below .500 before Sunday, though I’ve never put much stock in anything based on record at the time.

But the reason these streaks largely go back 40 games is that was the 27-3 loss to the Titans in 2021, the only game where Mahomes and the Chiefs lost wire-to-wire (never led). Well, Sunday in Denver was the second wire-to-wire loss for Mahomes and the Chiefs. It is only the 4th loss by more than 8 points for him.

Was it the weather? They have played in colder, and the snow didn’t materialize during the game. Was it Mahomes having the flu this weekend? He didn’t seem to be lacking in energy as he ran for his life throughout the game, which was a bigger issue itself.

It really is as simple as you can’t turn the ball over 5 times on the road and expect to win in this league. But in a weird twist, I came away from this game with more confidence in the Kansas City defense and less confidence in the offense going forward.

If you look at Denver’s offense in this game, while Russell Wilson passed for 3 touchdowns, he only had 114 yards on 19 attempts, and it gets worse when you consider he took 6 sacks for 27 yards and lost a fumble. That means the Chiefs held Wilson under 100 net passing yards twice in 17 days.

While Denver scored 24 points, those drives came on short fields where the offense only gained 39, 50, 10, and 10 yards. That’s 24 points on 109 yards. That’s ridiculous. Denver started at the 50 or better on every scoring drive.

This is why the turnovers hurt so much, and the Kansas City defense did its best to mitigate them:

  • Turnover No. 1 was a bad one as Marquez Valdes-Scantling fumbled a completion in Denver territory, which led to a 50-yard touchdown drive for the Broncos.
  • Turnover No. 2 was a Mahomes interception that ended up not mattering since the Chiefs stopped Wilson on a 4th-down run, and the Chiefs were 5 yards ahead of where they were before the pick 90 seconds later.
  • Turnover No. 3 was a strip-sack of Mahomes in the red zone, which was big, but Wilson also lost a fumble on a sack, and the Chiefs got a 56-yard field goal out of it, so it may have been a 4-point mistake at most.
  • The Chiefs blocked a 38-yard field goal to start the third quarter, which was another mini-turnover for Denver.
  • Turnover No. 4 was the killer as Mecole Hardman muffed a punt when the Chiefs were going to get the ball back in a 14-9 game with 11:15 to play. Instead, the Broncos had a 10-yard touchdown drive to go up 21-9.
  • Turnover No. 5 was moot when you’re throwing up a prayer on 4th-and-27, don’t get the flag for contact on the receiver, and by catching the ball, Jusitn Simmons cost his team 6 yards in field position.

I know a particular group of people, likely from New England area codes, are going to say I took the blame off Mahomes. I didn’t. It was one of the worst games of his career. But any rational analysis will tell you his turnovers were not as impactful as the fumbles by his skill players, especially that muffed punt by a problematic player they shouldn’t have brought back.

For as bad as this was, I still think the Chiefs can pull this one out if they had the ball in a 14-9 game. The muff killed them and changed how the rest of the game would be played.

I also think the Chiefs erroneously fell in love with throws short of the sticks early in this game and paid for it as Denver was not biting this week. A minus-4 yard completion to Isiah Pacheco blew up the opening drive for a 3-and-out. A minus-1 yard completion to Rashee Rice, who later had a bad drop at midfield, on a 3rd-and-2 killed another drive at the goal line, leading to a field goal instead of a touchdown. Jerick McKinnon was also stuffed for a 3-yard loss on a 3rd-and-2 run in the red zone that led to another field goal.

The Chiefs didn’t attack enough this week, and by the time the game got into a 2-touchdown deficit, Mahomes was under pressure a lot. I also think going for the deep touchdown shot on 4th-and-2 at the Denver 26 with 7:40 left was highly questionable. The fact the target was Skyy Moore makes it downright laughable as he is the player you call plays for if you want the offense to die.

The Kansas City offense played very poorly in this one and Denver was good enough to take advantage. But unlike the other 3 blowout losses for the Chiefs (Super Bowl 55, 2021 Bills, 2021 Titans), this one was not a bad defensive performance too. I’m learning to trust that unit.

The problem coming into this season was who do they have to catch the ball after Kelce. Through 8 games, the answer looks like not much. With the trade deadline this Tuesday, they may need to do something drastic, because the way this season is going, it’s ending early in January with Mahomes trying to make a throw on 4th & 25+.

In a way, this could be a well-timed loss for the Chiefs. You don’t want everyone kissing your ass week after week, and sometimes it takes a good ass kicking to fix what’s wrong and improve. The way the Chiefs played to get to 6-1 was not good enough for a championship run. They need to be better than that, and we’ll see if the trip to Germany and a high-profile opponent like Miami can bring out their best, or if it only further shows they have taken a step back this year to the pack.

Time to start some new streaks, because they left them all behind in Denver in one of the ugliest performances of the Mahomes era.

I had an inkling ever since Sean Payton signed in Denver that this would be the game when the streak ends. But 24-9? Was never in my mind. And to think the Chiefs scored only 3 field goals on a day when DeAndre Hopkins caught 3 touchdowns…

Bengals at 49ers: Someone Let Them Know Beating Dallas Wasn’t the Super Bowl

Don’t look now, but the Bengals have moved up to No. 9 in the AFC, and they look more stable and reliable than the other 4-3 teams ahead of them (Steelers, Browns, and Jets). But the Bengals still trail those teams because they are 0-3 against AFC teams this season.

However, by winning in San Francisco, the Bengals completed a 4-0 sweep of the NFC West. This was the biggest one with the 49ers being the best team, or so we thought before what is now a 3-game losing streak with Brock Purdy’s turnover issues catching up to the offense.

That was always the main issue going into this season. What if those interceptions that Purdy gets away with start getting caught? Well, concussion related or not, the mistakes are turning into turnovers and the team is losing games that were within a score in the fourth quarter over it.

This one also exposed the defense some more as Joe Burrow was 28-of-32 for 283 yards and 3 touchdowns in one of his best games of his career. The way Kirk Cousins was quick and decisive with good protection on Monday night seemed to carry over for the way the Bengals played this game on the road. Even the running game was strong with Joe Mixon rushing for 87 yards and a touchdown.

Despite suffering a concussion on Monday night and getting cleared in record time under the new protocol, it would be hard to say that was the issue for Purdy here. He led the team with 57 rushing yards, which is a separate issue as it makes you ask why Christian McCaffrey (12 carries for 54 yards) wasn’t more dominant on the ground. But Purdy had solid passing numbers without Deebo Samuel in a 17-10 game that was about to go to the fourth quarter with the 49ers in the red zone.

That’s when his Mr. Irrelevant-looking mistake bit him as he tried to throw a pass near the sideline and it was intercepted and almost returned the distance for a touchdown. The Bengals did not turn that one into any points, but they intercepted Purdy on the next play from scrimmage too, and that one set up a 17-yard touchdown drive in one play after Ja’Marr Chase pulled in a score to make it 24-10.

Purdy threw a touchdown to McCaffrey, his second of the game, but the Bengals were flawless in a 4-minute offense situation with a 78-yard touchdown drive that consumed 5:18 and put the team back on top 31-17 with 2:54 left. Purdy was strip-sacked by Trey Hendrickson, then later padded the stats a bit with two meaningless completions for 69 yards.

No team steps up for every big game, but the Bengals answered the call here with excellent performances in the passing game, running game, and for the defense to hold down what was another elite offense with a bunch of big turnovers.

Eagles at Commanders: Almost a Repeat of Last Time

I guess I’m still stuck on what the 2022 Eagles were, because both Washington matchups this month burned me on predictions. I thought the Eagles would blow them out at least once, yet this game almost went to overtime at 31-31 just like the first game did. For some reason, Sam Howell turns into Steve Young when he plays this defense, which does not have the same pass rush as last year’s Super Bowl team.

Fortunately, these Eagles have an even better version of A.J. Brown as he just set the NFL record with his 6th-consecutive 125-yard receiving game. He barely hit the number (130), but it was enough to score 2 touchdowns and help this team to a 7-1 start.

But Washington did not make it easy again on the Eagles, who were even stopped on the Brotherly Shove after a Jalen Hurts fumble on 1st-and-goal at the 1, and they had to come back from a 24-17 deficit in the fourth quarter. DeVonta Smith caught a 38-yard touchdown to tie the game in his best game in many weeks, then the defense came up with an interception to put the Eagles at the 7-yard line for a short touchdown drive that ended with a pass to Julio Jones, who decided to dress as a red zone threat for Halloween.

Howell had a lot of good moments in this game, and it showed the potential he has if he can cut down on the sacks and other mistakes. But there were a few too many pivotal moments that went against him and the Commanders. The Philadelphia comeback from a 14-3 deficit started after Howell, who hit 20 of his first 21 passes, misfired on a 4th-and-1 pass late in the first half. Later, he threw the pick to Reed Blankenship that put Washington down 31-24, then on a 4th-and-8 at the Philadelphia 40, his pass was low and would have been a very tough catch for Terry McLaurin.

Then after getting one more chance to tie the game or possibly take the lead, Howell suffered his only sack of the game on a 4th down when Haason Reddick got to him and knocked the ball out, setting up the Eagles for a 16-yard touchdown drive to put it away at 38-24.

Washington still got another touchdown to screw the Eagles -7 bettors in a 38-31 game, but it was too late. At the very least, Howell did not tie records for the longest streaks in NFL history taking 4 or 5 sacks in a game. But the Eagles still completed the sweep of Washington, now a 3-5 team.

Jaguars at Steelers: Mike Tomlin’s Boogeyman

Nothing is scarier to Mike Tomlin’s Steelers than the Jacksonville Jaguars getting off the team bus in Pittsburgh. In franchise history, the Steelers have only been swept at home in a season twice, and both times it was the Jaguars against Tomlin in 2007 and 2017.

The good news for Steelers fans: Don’t worry about a Jacksonville sweep happening this year, because this team won’t have a home playoff game.

The Steelers (4-3) may not have any playoff games if they keep playing like this. The ironic thing about those Jacksonville sweeps is that in both seasons, the Jaguars had the kind of offense that is more of what the Steelers aspire to be. Physical, strong running game that sets up the pass, tough quarterback, and a solid offensive line.

In 2023, the Jaguars are again what the Steelers wish they can be on offense. Trevor Lawrence was the first quarterback taken in his draft class, he struggled as a rookie, but he improved last year with a new set of talented receivers. They used a first-round pick on running back Travis Etienne, hoping to turn his college production into pro production alongside his Clemson teammate.

While no one had Kenny Pickett anywhere near the level of Lawrence as a prospect, he was the first quarterback taken in 2022, and there was a thought he could improve in his second season alongside a talented receiving duo (George Pickens and Diontae Johnson), and the team used the pick right before Etienne in 2021 to take Najee Harris.

But on Sunday, it couldn’t be any clearer that Pittsburgh’s plan is failing while the Jaguars (6-2) are on the longest active winning streak in the NFL at 5 games.

  • Lawrence passed for 292 yards in the rain and survived the pass rush of the Steelers despite 3 sacks on quick pressures his line is known to allow.
  • Pickett was 10-of-16 for 73 yards and was knocked out of the game in the first half with a rib injury.
  • It took the Steelers 5 drives to gain a first down.
  • Etienne had the game’s longest play with a 56-yard touchdown catch while Harris had 55 yards on 12 touches.
  • George Pickens’ 22-yard touchdown catch was his only catch in the game while Christian Kirk, Calvin Ridley, and tight end Evan Engram combined for 20 catches for 217 yards.

It was Pittsburgh’s miserable offensive performance that wasted a defense that had 3 takeaways, and the Steelers were still trailing 17-3 with that 3-0 edge in the turnover department.

Enter Mitch Trubisky for Pickett, and one of the things a good backup should do is manage the game and not make the fatal mistakes to blow it. But Trubisky has a higher interception rate (2.8%) in Pittsburgh than he did in Chicago (2.3%) as he was careless with the ball again.

After Pittsburgh’s defense sacked Lawrence out of field-goal range in the fourth quarter, Trubisky had the ball in a 17-10 game with 10:14 left. But he quickly threw a poor pass deep that was picked off. The Jaguars had no problem turning that into another field goal, and taking a 20-10 lead with 4:35 left. The Steelers turned it over on downs, and that was basically a wrap. Trubisky threw another pick on a Hail Mary to end the game and make the turnover battle look closer at 3-2 Pittsburgh, but that is still no excuse for the Steelers to waste as many drives as they did on offense.

Pickett or Trubisky, I’m not sure there’s a difference or it matters right now. Not as long as Matt Canada is calling a pathetic offense and Tomlin seems to have no input on how to fix it.

The Steelers could take advantage of a rookie quarterback (Tennessee’s Will Levis) on a short week this Thursday to win another home game. But when it comes to playing a legitimate contender with a great offense like the Chiefs or Eagles, we see how the Steelers get blown out in recent years. When they play a playoff-caliber team like Jacksonville, they usually fold in those games too with the offense struggling to do anything.

This team is stuck in purgatory, and until major changes come, they will not ascend to being anything better than that.

Rams at Cowboys: Early Knockout

I miss the old days when the Cowboys had normal game scripts. This one was over when CeeDee Lamb caught his first touchdown to give Dallas a 26-3 lead with 12:45 left in the second quarter. Never mind the 43-20 scorigami that followed.

That’s right, it was a 23-point game just minutes into the second quarter. Oddly enough, the Dallas offense was the least impressive part of this run due to some sacks that made them look underwhelming. The special teams kicked ass with a 58-yard field goal, a punt blocked for a safety, and a 63-yard kick return on the free kick.

The defense intercepted Matthew Stafford for a 30-yard touchdown, then Micah Parsons sacked him on a third down before the punt block.

This was just an ass-kicking with the Rams never getting closer than 16 points the rest of the way. Stafford didn’t finish the game with a thumb injury that may have gotten worse on a play where he caught a 2-point conversion. Yes, he caught a pass.

It was the kind of mess I thought we’d see more often from the Rams this year given the roster limitations. But if Stafford is hurt and they already seem to have broken the Cooper Kupp connection (under 30 yards in back-to-back games), then what good is this team going forward?

Dallas just has to stay the course, because the talent is there to put it all together at the right time. Beating the Eagles next week would be a huge statement.

Patriots at Dolphins: Tua Moves to 6-0 vs. Belichick

I have said before that it’s kind of annoying that Tua Tagovailoa gets to be the first and only quarterback to go 5-0 against Bill Belichick, because he’s been facing the weakest of the New England teams, and he hasn’t even done a whole lot in those games (4 TD, 3 INT). He just avoids the big mistakes and his defense forces the Patriots into them with some huge fumbles.

But on Sunday, Tagovailoa had his best game yet against Belichick to move to 6-0 against the Patriots in his career. He passed for 324 yards and 3 touchdowns, the first time he had over 270 yards and more than 1 touchdown pass against New England.

But much like in Week 2, this was a 24-17 game in the fourth quarter with the Patriots (+8.5) hanging around. And just like in Week 2, the Dolphins hit a big play to turn the Patriots back after they made it a one-score game with Mac Jones finding JuJu Smith-Schuster on a 3-yard touchdown pass on fourth down.

Back in the day, the Patriots would force Miami into a mistake and get the ball back so you know who would have real chances to complete the comeback. But that’s rarely the case with these new Patriots.

Sure enough, the Patriots allowed Miami to convert a 3rd-and-9 to Tyreek Hill at midfield, then gave up a 31-yard touchdown to Jaylen Waddle on a 3rd-and-1 with 2:43 left to effectively end the game at 31-17.

This is the kind of thing that would never happen to New England in the dynasty years. Literally never, cause I had to look it up seeing as how the Dolphins did something similar in Week 2 when Raheem Mostert had a long touchdown run to go up 2 touchdowns on the Patriots.

We always hear about Belichick being so good at limiting the big plays, playing his bend-but-don’t-break style of defense, and making teams earn it on long drives. I thought allowing a 30-yard touchdown in a game you’re trailing by 1 score that makes it a 2-score game would look really bad. I looked it up, and sure enough, this never happened once to the Patriots in the Tom Brady years in 2001-19. But since, it’s happened 4 times now, including both games against the 2023 Dolphins. It also happened against the 2021 Colts and 2022 Bills, so that’s 4 times in the post-Brady years, none in the Brady era. You can’t make this stuff up.

Even if you drop it to 20 yards so that it’s all touchdowns from outside the red zone, it’s 2 (2006 Jets, 2017 Chiefs) vs. 4 times.

Belichick is the coach, so he has to take some blame for this. But it’s another one of those things that I refuse to credit Brady for not allowing to happen during his two decades. He didn’t play defense, unless you think he was a witch that had the power to will his teammates from the bench to do things for him.

I think it’s more of the Patriots don’t have defenders worth a damn like they used to step in and make a play, and it’s also the divisional opponents that have gotten so much more talented on offense (Bills and Dolphins, at least) that are doing this to them better than anyone.

Down 14 inside of 3:00, the Patriots went 4-and-out to end this one, dropping them to 2-6 in a division that now has the 6-2 Dolphins, 5-3 Bills, and 4-3 Jets.

New England is dead last in the AFC going into Week 9.

Browns at Seahawks: Late Pick Dooms Cleveland

On a list of hard-fought wins, this one would have to rank highly this season for Seattle. Both quarterbacks threw 2 interceptions, and it could have easily been more for both with the way the defenses were flashing all day long.

But it was P.J. Walker’s late pick that doomed the Browns. I get why they wanted to throw on a 3rd-and-3 at their 41 with the Seahawks still having a few timeouts and it was going to be the 2-minute warning after that play. But you have to protect the ball better, and Jamal Adams was able to deflect it to a teammate for a huge interception that set up Geno Smith at the Seattle 43 in a 20-17 game.

We talk about Geno not having a great record with comebacks, but he made the Cleveland defense fold like a cheap suit on this drive. Noah Fant had a 27-yard gain, and with a good block, Jaxon Smith-Njigba was able to spring free for a 9-yard touchdown with 38 seconds left to take a 24-20 lead.

This one probably goes to overtime at worst if Walker did anything but throw that pick. He still had a chance to do something with 38 seconds and 2 timeouts, but the Seahawks sacked him on third down, then he threw incomplete on 4th-and-19 to end the game.

Thanks to the 49ers (5-3) losing their third in a row, the Seahawks (5-2) are in first place in the NFC West. They won’t meet until Thanksgiving, but it should be interesting to see where this race goes with the Seahawks going to Baltimore next.

The Browns kind of stole a couple from the 49ers and Colts the last two weeks, so giving up one here in Seattle only feels fair for this 4-3 team that has lost some luster with the defense the last couple of games.

Texans at Panthers: Everyone’s a Winner Now

I was all about the Carolina Panthers (+3.5) getting their first win as my upset pick this week. Thought we would see more offense than 13-12, but the Panthers had no running game to speak of with the backs accounting for 20 carries for 33 yards. Bryce Young also took 6 sacks, so it was a miserable day for the offensive line.

Still, we rarely see NFL games with this much offensive struggle. It was the first game since 2018 Bills-Titans to end with neither team reaching 14 points and 230 yards offense. That game also happened to end 13-12.

The Texans punted on 6-of-9 drives and lost a fumble in the third quarter. But after taking a 13-12 lead when C.J. Stroud rushed for a 1-yard touchdown on a fourth-down play, the Texans never put the game away. They also missed a big 2-point conversion that would have made it 15-12 and protected against a field goal.

But this set the stage for the Panthers to end one of the league’s most embarrassing streaks. Since 2018, the Panthers had lost 56 games in a row when trailing in the fourth quarter. Their opportunity here would be the easiest comeback type there is with a 1-point deficit and an entire quarter to do something about it.

But the streak did finally end after a bumpy ride to get there with Young taking a pair of 3rd-down sacks in the quarter to end drives. But after the Texans stalled out inside the Carolina 40, Young got the ball back at his own 9 with 6:17 left to have his moment. He made some easy plays, and then overcame another sack by getting a screen pass to Adam Thielen, then fitting a ball in a tight window on a 4th-and-2 at midfield. The running game finally made a positive contribution with Chuba Hubbard using 3 runs to make a first down and burn precious clock.

The Panthers consumed the final 6:17 off the clock and set up the field goal as the final play. After the Texans were penalized for illegally trying to disrupt the kick, the 23-yard field goal from Eddy Pineiro was finally through the upright and the 56-game losing streak was over.

The advanced stats hate sacks, so you’ll probably see Stroud come out higher than Young in this game, but I think Young hung in there well on a day he had no running game, minimal protection, and the Panthers started 3 drives inside their own 10, including the one to win the game.

Maybe with a win in the books, we’ll see some better play out of the Panthers going forward. At least I can’t keep dogging them for always losing this kind of game like they did the last 5 years.

Ravens at Cardinals: Onside Kick Leads to Absurd Backdoor Cover for Awful Team

I guess the stats won’t reflect it since there were 27 points scored in the final 10 minutes alone, but I really thought this was a poor offensive game for both teams. It’s funny how the Ravens could put on one of the best performances by any team this season in stomping a solid Detroit roster last week but send them to Arizona and they couldn’t even walk away with a double-digit win like every other Arizona opponent has since Week 4.

Lamar Jackson did not stack big games this week as he only passed for 157 yards, and he would have been 0-for-5 on targets to Odell Beckham Jr. if not for a defensive penalty flag. Zay Flowers had 5 catches for 19 yards.

Like I said, this was largely a dud with two Joshua Dobbs interceptions leading to short field touchdown drives for the Ravens. But even after they led 31-15 with 2:51 left, the Ravens (-9.5) couldn’t cover the spread. They gave up a touchdown, stopped the 2-point conversion to keep it 31-21, but the Cardinals recovered a rare onside kick. We get so few of those in an NFL season, and this one was a waste as it only served to piss off Baltimore bettors. Matt Prater hit a 47-yard field goal with 26 seconds left to make it 31-24, and of course they didn’t recover a second onside kick.

Should have known better that it was too good to be true that the Ravens could win back-to-back games by double digits.

Saints at Colts: Defense Fails Again for Indy

In a season where so many teams are struggling to score, I appreciate Shane Steichen for getting his Colts to score 20+ points every single week. They did it again by halftime in this one, even leading 17-7 at one point, as the New Orleans defense is losing its shine more and more each week.

Unfortunately, the Colts are one of the worst defensive teams in the NFL, and this game was one of the lower points of the season as they made Derek Carr look like a viable deep passer. Carr finished 19/27 for 310 yards and 2 touchdowns, including 153 yards on 3 catches by Rashid Shaheed.

This was an offensive explosion for the 2023 Saints while the Colts were rough in the second half. Gardner Minshew avoided the strip-sacks this week, but he was picked near the goal line in the third quarter, then both fourth quarter drives when the Colts were only down by one touchdown failed. The Saints put it away with a field goal after Shaheed’s second 50-yard catch of the game converted a 3rd-and-13 situation with 2:52 left.

Maybe the Saints (4-4), the preseason division favorite, are still the right team to back in the NFC South this year. But this was already the 4th home game this season where the Colts gave up more than 28 points.

If that sounds like a lot for Week 8, that’s because 4 home games allowing 29+ points is the most by any Colts team in a full season since 1997 (4).

Jets at Giants: Sucking on Offense Everything Everywhere All at Once

If you thought it was pretty bad last week when the Giants and Commanders played a game with more possessions (27) than points (21), this one was even worse. Or does sucking more on offense actually make this the better game since the expectations were for them to be bad, and it somehow blew those away?

This is the kind of nonsense you grow to expect from The Battle of New York. This game had a whopping 34 possessions and 23 points, meaning the last two Giants games have had a total of 44 points on 61 possessions (0.72 points per drive). This team is single-handedly killing offense in 2023.

And yet, the Giants should have won this game in regulation despite having minus-8 net passing yards, something that hadn’t been done in the NFL in a win since the 1977 Eagles did it against the Giants (of course). The Giants lost Tyrod Taylor to a rib injury, backup Tommy Devito had time between his Jersey Boys rehearsals to score a rushing touchdown, and the Giants were on track to win this game despite punting 12 times.

That just goes to show how bad Zach Wilson is. After he took a 15-yard sack on 4th-and-10 with 1:26 left, the ending should have been nearly routine despite the Jets having 2 timeouts left.

But Brian Daboll, who should never get another Coach of the Year vote ever again, screwed up. He had a 4th-and-1 at New York’s 17 with 28 seconds left. You run the ball in this situation. It’s a 70% conversion rate flat, and even higher if you go with any kind of quarterback sneak. You don’t kick a field goal and leave them time in a 6-point game to beat you with a miracle touchdown. At worst, you don’t convert, and they’ll still play for the field goal anyway and overtime. That’s why you take the slight risk and go for the yard to end the game.

He chose field goal, and Graham Gano added to his growing list of chokes with a wide left 35-yard kick on a day that was not ideal weather on a field with a shit surface. One of the worst decisions of the season.

But little did anyone expect Wilson to make the Giants pay. He found his receivers twice for gains of 29 yards each, and he was able to get the offense ready for a spike with 1 second left. Greg Zuerlein was not going to miss his 35-yard field goal, and he sent the game to overtime. Stunning collapse.

If there was ever a game where you didn’t want to go first on offense in overtime, this should have been the one. The Giants had 3 plays all game that gained 10 yards, and one was a 17-yard run by Taylor, who was out. And yet, Daboll elected to receive first. What did he think was going to happen? They were going to magically put together a touchdown drive against one of the best defenses in the league to end it?

The Giants punted for the 13th time in the game, because all it took was a holding penalty on first down to completely kill the drive with a 1st-and-20.

To Wilson’s credit, he did convert a big 3rd-and-10 to avoid going three-and-out again for the Jets. Then a 30-yard defensive pass interference penalty set up Zuerlein for the 33-yard game-winning field goal to end this one 13-10.

I said on Saturday this game was most likely to end in a push with the Jets winning by 3. I think the Jets are one of the worst 4-3 teams I’ve ever seen, but the Giants deserved to lose this one with the stupid things they did late in the game.

Falcons at Titans: Farewell to the Ryan Tannehill Era

When your quarterback is in his mid-30s, coming off a bad year, and your team drafts a quarterback with a top 50 pick, that veteran’s days are probably numbered. Will Levis plummeted on draft night after some thought he could go in the top 4, but it was only a matter of time before he’d get a shot in Tennessee, especially with Ryan Tannehill’s extensive injury history.

That moment came in Week 8 and Will Levis joined Fran Tarkenton and Marcus Mariota as the only quarterbacks in NFL history to throw 4 touchdown passes in their debut. Let’s hope his career turns out better than Mariota’s did.

I loved the prop of DeAndre Hopkins scoring his first touchdown as no one was more due than him, but 3 in one game with the rookie quarterback? Tannehill had 2 touchdown passes on 158 attempts this year.

Now that does sound like something a classic Atlanta defense would do against a rookie, but I was still surprised at the Titans having that many big plays. Levis had three 30-yard touchdown passes in this game.

Was every ball perfectly thrown or against tight coverage? No, but I think you have to be fairly encouraged after a debut like this, especially with how little the Titans were getting out of their passing game with Tannehill. I think Mike Vrabel needs to stick with the rookie even when Tannehill is healthy.

As for the Falcons, they pulled Desmond Ridder for Taylor Heinicke in this one, or was it a concussion concern? Either way, Ridder wasn’t getting the job done and lost another fumble.

Heinicke had some shots in the fourth quarter to lead a game-winning touchdown drive, but it didn’t work out either time. I think the Falcons should have ran the ball on 4th-and-1 at their own 22 with 1:33 left just to make sure they’d get the first down before hurrying up, but Arthur Smith had other ideas.

Now the Falcons have quarterback questions, and the Titans have some new hope on their side. Levis had as many touchdown passes in his debut as Ridder had in his first 7 starts combined (4). Levis also had as many touchdown passes in his debut as Kenny Pickett’s best 3 games combined (2+1+1), and Pickett could be Levis’ next opponent if he is cleared to play Thursday night.

We’ll see how it goes, but Game No. 1 was a smashing success for the rookie.

Vikings at Packers: Et tu, Kirk? 😦

I have taken my share of shots and jokes at Kirk Cousins’ expense over the years, but I am truly upset that his season just likely ended to an Achilles tear after he was playing some of his best ball and may have led this team to a wild card position.

For all of Cousins’ shortcomings, he is still one of the most accurate quarterbacks in the league, and he’s been a gamer with only one game missed to injury for a positive COVID test in his career. In a league where so many quarterbacks are struggling, having someone you could reliably expect to throw for 250 yards and 2 touchdowns means something.

Right, Green Bay fans? An accurate quarterback matters, and Jordan Love just isn’t that guy yet. He may never be. But it’s also true that this experiment of surrounding Love with a ton of young skill players is not working out for Matt LaFleur. Christian Watson’s big touchdown run from last year is looking like a fluke. Even the running game failed as Love led the Packers with 34 rushing yards in this game, another slow start for the offense that saw Green Bay trailing 10-3 at halftime.

The Packers never got closer than 24-10 in the fourth quarter, but that doesn’t mean there weren’t multiple opportunities to make this a game. The worst part was after Cousins was injured (non-contact) in the fourth quarter, the backup came in and coughed it up on a strip-sack just 3 plays into the drive. The Packers immediately started in the red zone, but just like the previous drive, they turned it over on downs after Love was unable to finish the job. A 15-yard scramble on 4th-and-16? Please.

At 2-5, Green Bay looks effectively done for the playoff race this year. At 4-4 with such a favorable remaining schedule, I’m not sure what the Vikings do. Trade for Kyler Murray? Eh, I don’t know about that one. It’s just unfortunate as this is the year that will be remembered for the quarterback Achilles injuries, Cousins and Rodgers. One was going to be an MVP candidate, and the other was actually leading the league in touchdown passes the week he was injured.

Just the most unfortunate part of this game, and if you’re a Green Bay fan, you know how good you had it when Brett Favre started 321 games in a row.

Bears at Chargers: NBC Gets the Dud It Deserved

Our 14th and final game is fittingly the Sunday night pillow fight between the Bears and Chargers, who both entered Week 8 as the No. 14 seed in their conference. Not only should this game have been flexed out of SNF, but it never should have made the prime-time schedule. I could have told you that in April or even in March when the Bears traded the top pick to Carolina.

I’m not convinced this is any more of a game if Justin Fields was the starter as the Bears had no answers for Justin Herbert’s passing (31-of-40 for 298 yards, 3 TD) while the offense neglected to throw to D.J. Moore in the second half against arguably the worst pass defense in the league.

Seriously, what kind of Chargers game has them with a 30-7 lead in the fourth quarter with not even a hint of a collapse around the corner? That was garbage, and I hope the NFL remembers that the next time they have the chance to flex out a bad game on what is supposed to be the prestigious spot in their weekly programming.

Instead, we had to listen to Mike Tirico and Cris Collinsworth talk up Tyson Bagent for 3 hours. Oh, the horror.

Next week: Bring on the legitimately big games. Chiefs-Dolphins, Seahawks-Ravens, Cowboys-Eagles, and Bengals-Bills are all part of the Week 9 schedule. I might have to actually get up before 10:00 AM for this one.

NFL Stat Oddity: Week 5

~ Scott ~ 17 Comments

While Week 5 in the NFL did produce two huge blowout wins, it was another fairly competitive week with 10 comeback opportunities and a season-high eight game-winning drives, including one in all three island games.

The teams favored by at least seven points were just 1-4 ATS and two even lost outright. Last year’s Super Bowl teams, the Rams and Bengals, are both just 2-3. Only the Eagles (5-0) remain undefeated after playing their closest game of the season against an Arizona team that was 2021’s last undefeated team.

And yet, it may all just be leading to what 2021 should have led to: Chiefs vs. Bills being the real Super Bowl. Last year, it was the instant classic in the divisional round, but the Chiefs blew it in the AFC Championship Game, setting up that first Super Bowl without a top-three seed. Now the Chiefs and Bills are the talk of the league again as they get ready for their Week 6 showdown in Kansas City that could determine everything from the MVP to home-field advantage to the Super Bowl champion.

But before we get way ahead of things, there were a lot of close finishes, mind-numbing plays, and questionable calls on Sunday to go over.

This season in Stat Oddity:

Bengals at Ravens: Winner Gets a Set of Steak Knives

Before this season is over, the Bengals and Ravens will have their say on which AFC team is represented in the Super Bowl. It was just hard watching them on Sunday night and not thinking that they are a tier below what we are soon going to see when the Bills and Chiefs meet again next week.

As far as 19-17 games in prime time go, this was one of the best ones with a good balance of offense, defense, and special teams with two great kickers. But there were also some egregious misses by both Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow. Jackson had a terrible pick when the Ravens were up 10-0, then he missed one of the easiest deep balls in the Next Gen Stats era on a fourth down. Burrow had an awful third quarter with a pick and one of the ugliest shovel passes on a fourth-and-goal that you’ll ever see.

Also, for the second week in a row I found myself disagreeing strongly with John Harbaugh’s fourth-quarter decision making. I thought last week he should have kicked the late field goal for the lead over Buffalo when Lamar’s fourth-down pass was intercepted. This time, Harbaugh looked like he was going for a fourth-and-1 at the Cincinnati 3 with a 13-10 lead and 9:46 left, but he took a delay of game and kicked the field goal to go up 16-10.

I don’t like that move. Go for the conversion and try to get the 20-10 lead that is so valuable in this game. You leave some hope in a 16-10 game, not to mention you incentivize them to treat this drive as touchdown or bust.

The Bengals did a good job of chipping away on the drive, with Burrow eventually sneaking into the end zone himself with 1:58 left. Evan McPherson’s go-ahead extra point was just over the right crossbar, leaving no margin for error on that judgment of make or miss. Now if he could have done that against the Steelers in Week 1, the Bengals would be in better shape.

But in a 17-16 game, Jackson had nearly a full two minutes to set up Justin Tucker for the win. When he can use his legs to pick up a quick 19 yards, it’s almost too hard to stop him from doing just that. Eventually, Tucker came on to drill the 43-yard field goal at the buzzer, straight down the middle as if it was ever in doubt. The Ravens (3-2) take the lead over the Bengals (2-3) and the rest of the AFC North going into Week 6.

For all the hype about Burrow’s 941 yards passing last season against the Ravens, he finished this game with 217 yards, including one pass play of 20-plus yards. Ja’Marr Chase only had 50 yards on 12 targets. Tee Higgins had an ankle injury and barely played, receiving zero targets as he continues to deal with injuries almost weekly this season.

Both of these teams would comfortably win the AFC South if that was the division they called home this year. They should continue to battle for the AFC North as they are better than Pittsburgh and Cleveland right now. But are they on the same tier as Buffalo and Kansas City? I’m just not seeing it yet.

Steelers at Bills: Pickett’s First Start Is Biggest Pittsburgh Blowout Since 1989

Before I get into Kenny Pickett’s first start, I just want to say that the Bills played a great game in handing the Steelers their first 35-point loss since losing the 1989 opener to Cleveland by a 51-0 score. Right from the third play of the game when Josh Allen went over the top of the defense for a 98-yard touchdown to Gabe Davis, you knew the Steelers were in trouble.

Allen had not broken 5.6 yards per attempt in his first three starts against Pittsburgh, but with all the confidence in the world and no T.J. Watt to worry about, Allen shredded this defense for career highs in passing yards (424), YPA (13.7), and he threw four touchdowns while rushing for 42 yards. He even had 348 passing yards and four touchdowns in the first half alone as Buffalo led 31-3.

Was it a perfect performance or even the most dominant the Bills have looked this season? No (Tennessee), there were some mistakes on special teams on a windy day, and Allen was intercepted by Levi Wallace in the end zone on a nice-looking grab by the defender. The Bills also fumbled at the 1-yard line while leading 31-3. But it was the kind of dominant performance that makes you think the Bills are going to be favored the rest of the way this season unless things drastically change.

As for the Steelers, we know they were a 14-point underdog for the first time since the 1970 merger, but this is the latest loss in a recent troubling string of road losses where they have been blown out, often before the fourth quarter:

  • Week 4 at Packers: Trailed 27-10 after 3Q (L 27-17)
  • Week 11 at Chargers: Trailed 27-10 after 3Q (L 41-37)
  • Week 12 at Bengals: Trailed 41-3 in 4Q (L 41-10)
  • Week 14 at Vikings: Trailed 29-0 in 3Q (L 36-28)
  • Week 16 at Chiefs: Trailed 36-3 in 4Q (L 36-10)
  • Wild Card at Chiefs: Trailed 42-14 in 4Q (L 42-21)
  • Week 5 at Bills: Trailed 38-3 in 4Q (L 38-3)

It gets worse.

  • From 1990 to 2010, the Steelers had three games where they trailed by 28+ points.
  • From 2011 to 2020, the Steelers had five games where they trailed by 28+ points.
  • The Steelers have trailed by 28+ points in five of their last 13 games.

It’s not good when you can ask “what’s the worst half of Steelers football in the last 30 years?” and you are getting a handful of choices from just the last 11 months.

I could not help but watch Kenny Pickett’s first NFL start and think about how Ben Roethlisberger probably feels very content with retirement now with the way the Steelers are getting blown out these days.

Pickett alone cannot turn this around, which might be why head coach Mike Tomlin said he is open to changes of all kinds after this 38-3 loss. But I’m not sure how you fix something like this in-season when things are so fundamentally flawed here.

But as for Pickett, there were some positives despite the 38-3 final. While I did go to Pitt, I cannot say I feel any real attachment or need to defend Pickett. I wasn’t even excited about the pick on draft night because I know the top quarterback lasting on the board that long is a bad sign of the class itself. But maybe I’m just prepping to become an apologist for him, because this team has a lot of holes that shouldn’t all be blamed on the quarterback.

I said last week that Pickett’s debut was about as encouraging as it could have been for someone who threw three interceptions. I might say the same thing about his first start being the most encouraging for someone who scored three points.

Among 34 quarterbacks to throw for at least 300 yards in their first NFL start, Pickett is the only one to not score at least 13 points and the only one to lose by more than 26 points.

First, we know it was only three points because Chris Boswell missed two field goals on a windy day that he usually will make (33 and 45 yards). That’s why the Steelers became the 21st team in NFL history to throw 50 passes and score fewer than six points. It’s a rough thing to do, but it’s not the end of the world. Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs did it last year against the Titans in a 27-3 loss.

Second, why were the Steelers even kicking field goals down 24-3 and 31-3? Tomlin never approached this game like he was a 14-point underdog starting a rookie quarterback on the road against the Super Bowl favorite. He acted like it was Big Ben trying to pull out an upset like he did in Week 1 last year thanks to a special teams bounce and some of that T.J. Watt greatness this defense is sorely missing. Tomlin mismanaged the moment by not appreciating the quality of opponent and his team’s predicament more.

Third, Pickett wasn’t bad by several measures. He was 34-of-52 for 327 yards, three sacks, a pick, and a 10-yard run. Pickett’s 56.7 QBR ranked 10th this week and was above average. The most egregious pass he threw early was the pick before halftime, but that was something he forced with 23 seconds left in a 31-3 game from his own 37. It didn’t lead to any points for Buffalo. It didn’t even matter.

Pickett’s receivers had a few costly drops too, including one off Diontae Johnson’s hands that was nearly intercepted. Johnson also could not hang onto a fourth-and-6 play in the third quarter that would have extended the drive in the red zone.

The points will come for this offense, but with the way the defense has handled good quarterbacks for the last year, the wins are not coming any time soon with Tom Brady and Jalen Hurts coming up.

The experience level of Pittsburgh’s quarterback cannot continue to overshadow the real problem of allowing an absurd number of points in so many big games in recent years. If only there was an obvious, common link between these losses that the team could put a finger on… But the standard is the standard.

Giants vs. Packers: Old-School Green Bay Loss, New-School Problems

Sunday began with a shocker in London when the Packers (-8) fell 27-22 to the Giants, who are now 4-1. Green Bay coach Matt LaFleur was 22-0 SU when favored by at least six points but make that 22-1 now after his offense scored zero points after halftime.

This was almost like some old-school Tom Coughlin-coached upset by the Giants against Aaron Rodgers and Green Bay. First, there was a sack that knocked the Packers out of field goal range late in the third quarter. Daniel Jones then used his arms and legs to put together a 15-play, 91-yard touchdown march to tie the game at 20 in the fourth quarter.

The Packers went three-and-out after three incompletions by Rodgers. Saquon Barkley continued his career season with a 41-yard catch and a 2-yard touchdown run to take a 27-20 lead with 6:08 left. Rookie coach Brian Daboll hasn’t really fixed Jones and the passing game, which has had a lot of injuries, but he is getting more timely plays from the young quarterback, and he absolutely has gotten Barkley on track to be the playmaker the Giants thought they were drafting years ago.

But just when you thought the Packers would tie the game with a touchdown like they did a week ago against the Patriots, that New York defense stepped up again. With two plays needing a yard from the New York 6, the Packers shunned their running backs and let Rodgers throw quick passes. The Giants pounced on both of them and knocked them down at the line. I think you have to feed Aaron Jones or A.J Dillon at least once there. Get the first down, then work the clock situation to get the touchdown and go to overtime or go for two and the win if you have a play you love.

But it was moot after some batted balls. Daboll miscalculated the clock as the Packers still had two timeouts to get the ball back. The Giants should have been running real offense instead of taking knees and an intentional safety, but they did that, giving Rodgers seven seconds to set up a Hail Mary, his specialty. But the best way to stop him on that is to not let him get the ball off. The Giants didn’t, forcing a fumble to end the game and seal the 27-22 upset win, Week 5’s shocker.

The 4-1 Giants are using a strategy much like the one that last carried them to the playoffs in 2016 (they lost to Green Bay in the wild card that year). Keep it close, close it out on defense. It is working for them, but with Dallas and Philadelphia in the same division, it is hard to see this lasting.

As for the Packers, there is still time to turn this around, but I am starting to think this identity-crisis offense without Davante Adams has the Packers less prepared than ever before to deal with the NFC playoff field. Could you imagine this team in January winning against the 49ers, Eagles, Buccaneers, or even Cowboys? Maybe they’d like a rematch with these Giants, but it wouldn’t be a slam dunk like it was in 2016.

I think a dream playoff road for Rodgers this year would be getting the Vikings in the wild card round in prime time (Kirk Cousins at night), hoping the Eagles choke in their first playoff game as the No. 1 seed, and then going to Dallas to take out the Cowboys in the building where Rodgers seems to have all his best playoff moments. That might be the path, but that’s assuming Green Bay gets that far.

Maybe it’s too early to be talking about this, but the last two weeks in nearly losing to Bailey Zappe and losing to the Giants in London, it has been an eye-opening experience on where the Packers are these days.

Eagles at Cardinals: Was Kyler’s Gatorade Spiked Too?

It took until Week 5 before the Eagles did not lead for the entire second half of a game. But the Cardinals are a better offense with Rondale Moore available, and Marquise Brown is starting to make an impact with Kyler Murray.

The Eagles were also not historically dominant in the second quarter this time, getting outscored 10-7 after starting the game with a 14-0 lead. Arizona (+5.5) kept it close as offensive holding penalties plagued the Eagles in the third quarter. After Arizona tied the game at 17 in the fourth, the Eagles turned to the running game with eight straight runs out the gate. Jalen Hurts is all but automatic on those sneaks with a yard to go. He had a couple of those conversions on a long drive that consumed nearly eight minutes, but the Eagles were unable to put the ball in the end zone, settling for a 23-yard field goal with 1:45 left.

Murray had plenty of time in a 20-17 game, but this is not a spot where you feel like you can trust him, coach Kliff Kingsbury, and certainly not new kicker Matt Ammendola, who was just jettisoned from the Chiefs after a bad game against the Colts.

Murray moved the offense into the fringes of field-goal range, but he spiked a ball on first down after a completion when he had plenty of time to call another play. He then scrambled for 9 yards, then quickly did a spike again to bring up fourth-and-1 with 22 seconds left. Did Murray not know that he started his slide early and was spotted short of a first down? Maybe, but he did not need to spike it with it being third down.

If you saw Ammendola with the Chiefs, you probably knew what was coming next. From 43 yards out, he was about as wide right as Mike Vanderjagt on a clutch playoff field goal. The Eagles escape this one with a 20-17 win and will have a big showdown with the Cowboys (4-1) next Sunday night.

Falcons at Buccaneers: Did the Roughing Flag Come with Another PPP Loan?

The sad state of the NFC South where a battle of 2-2 teams with a 10-point spread is a game for first place in Week 5. But the Falcons never had much of a chance without Cordarrelle Patterson and Kyle Pitts, their two most proven skill players. Not surprisingly, Tampa Bay led 21-0 to start the fourth quarter.

But wouldn’t it have been something if the Falcons, trying to avoid going 0-11 against Tom Brady, erased a 21-point fourth-quarter lead to beat him and take over first place in the division?

The Tampa offense started stalling while the Atlanta offense found some success on the ground after the defense wore down. Just like that, it was a 21-15 game with 4:38 left after the Falcons wisely went for two.

It looked like Brady was going to stall again in the four-minute offense after Grady Jarrett sacked him on a third down with three minutes left. However, one of the worst roughing the passer penalties you’ll ever see was called to gift the Buccaneers a first down. True LOAT stuff and superstar rules right here:

That is literally just a sack. It wasn’t late, it wasn’t to the head/neck region, and he didn’t do the whole “body weight” nonsense that came up years ago. It’s just a sack, but maybe the ref felt sorry for a 45-year-old man going through a publicized divorce?

It took six dropbacks before Brady made a play on the drive, converting a third down to Mike Evans to end the game, never giving the Falcons the ball back with a one-score deficit.

So many fan bases will be happy once Brady retires for good, but if Atlanta fans want to lay claim to being sick of him the most, I cannot argue against them. He is still going to win this division and get a home playoff game. With the Rams fading, it may take a Philadelphia/San Francisco/Dallas to put an end to this team in the playoffs short of the Super Bowl.

Cowboys at Rams: Coming Down the Mountain

I don’t want to spend a lot of time on this game, because it really does break down in simple terms.

The Rams (2-3) have been held to 9-or-10 points against the Bills, 49ers, and Cowboys in their losses. Those are three elite defenses this year, if not the three best. The Rams looked just fine offensively, albeit with Cam Akers sucking at the goal line, in wins over the Falcons and Cardinals, which are two lousy defenses. This offense is not built to excel against elite defenses anymore with the deficiencies along the offensive line (Andrew Whitworth’s retirement plus injuries), running back (see Akers sucking and being a lesser player than Darrell Henderson), and the fact that Cooper Kupp is about the only receiver worth a damn, especially in Matthew Stafford’s eyes. He takes five-to-seven sacks against these elite defenses as he can’t seem to find anyone open but Kupp. They miss that second threat like Robert Woods or Odell Beckham Jr. They don’t even have Van Jefferson this year and it shows up when they play a good defense. The “fvck them draft picks” team finally reached the top of the mountain last year, but this is not a surprising, rocky path for them to take coming back down it to join the rest of the pack in mediocrity.

As for the Cowboys (4-1), this was the first win for backup QB Cooper Rush where they really just babied him with the dominant defense and running game (30 carries for 164 yards). If Dak Prescott threw for 102 yards and lost 26 yards on three sacks, I’d say the Cowboys got smashed and he left the game injured. Rush has done a good job, but they’re not beating Philadelphia next week or for the division with this level of quarterback play. The challenge for Mike McCarthy is to make sure the defense and running game continue to play at this high level when Prescott returns. Don’t just “rally around the backup” and rest on your laurels “when #4 is back.” Play like a great damn team every week if you want to actually achieve something, like maybe your first NFC Championship Game appearance since the 1995 season.

Chargers at Browns: Boo-urns Brissett (and Brandon)

Not often do you see a running back shootout in the NFL, but Austin Ekeler and Nick Chubb put on a show in this 30-28 thriller. Both scored multiple touchdowns and Ekeler even outrushed Chubb, 173-134.

But Cleveland fans probably wish the running backs could have decided this game instead of the quarterback. I tried to warn people about Jacoby Brissett being terrible with the game on the line:

Sure, he can avoid mistakes for most of the game, but this is already his third time getting picked in the final minutes this season in close losses. The first two were desperation throws against the Jets and Falcons. This one was just foolishness in a 30-28 game with barely under three minutes left. It was third-and-7 at the Los Angeles 9, so Brissett had a go-ahead field goal in his back pocket. Instead, he scrambled and forced a throw and did not even see the defender (Alohi Gilman).

https://twitter.com/CBusIrish/status/1579197748535914497

Brutal stuff. But the Chargers were not going to let this one go without some Chargering. The offense got one first down to make Cleveland burn all three timeouts but not the second to clinch the game. They faced a fourth-and-1 at their own 46 with 1:14 left.

Head coach Brandon Staley decided to go for it at midfield, and Justin Herbert’s pass was incomplete. The Browns had 70 seconds left at the Los Angeles 45, basically needing a few yards for a reasonable game-winning field goal attempt.

I hated the decision by Staley, who has not impressed me for quite a number of games now after his promising start last year.

  • If you are leading 31-28, then going for it is justifiable, if not preferable. Don’t fear the game-tying field goal or overtime. Trust you can convert a yard with a high-percentage play (QB sneak).
  • If you are facing a dangerous quarterback like Patrick Mahomes or a team with an incredible kicker like Justin Tucker who can make from 60+, then going for it is justifiable, if not the only real option.

But you are only up 30-28 and you are facing one of the worst quarterbacks on record at game-winning drives. His offense’s biggest threat is a running back (Chubb) who likely won’t see the field on this drive. Just punt it deep and make him drive a long field.

But the Chargers gave Cleveland a gift that should have bit them in the ass. Brissett even got the 10 yards and new set of downs you figured they needed, but a stuffed run of Kareem Hunt – see, not Chubb – really hurt Cleveland’s chances. Then Brissett threw incomplete twice and the rookie kicker, Cade York, had to make a 54-yard field goal to save the day. He beat the Panthers on a 58-yard field goal in Week 1, so this is doable. However, this time he missed, and the Browns lost another close one.

Cleveland coach Kevin Stefanski is just 3-14 (.176) at 4QC/GWD opportunities. Only Carolina’s Matt Rhule (0-16) is worse among active coaches.

Hurry-Up Finish

Most weeks I am still wide awake when I say I need to get to bed, but I really am tired this week after barely sleeping last night. So, here are some quicker thoughts on the other games in Week 5:

Titans at Commanders: I will certainly mock Carson Wentz for throwing a game-ending interception, his third attempt from the 2-yard line in a 21-17 game’s closing seconds. But that really was a great defensive play by David Long. Almost like James Harrison in Super Bowl 43 without the crazy return touchdown.

The Titans (3-2) have won three in a row despite scoring zero points in the fourth quarter this season, the first team since the 2005 49ers (ALEX’s rookie year) to go scoreless in the fourth quarter through five games. These Titans are barely hanging on against the Raiders, Colts, and now Commanders, and they still might win the division. Speaking of which…

Texans at Jaguars: You can replace Doug Marrone with Urban Meyer or Doug Pederson, but apparently this sad sack of a franchise can’t beat the trash-heap version of the Houston Texans. That’s nine losses in a row to Houston, and this is probably the most disappointing yet cause the Jaguars were 7-point favorites and expected to run wild on Houston’s defense. It did not happen, and instead, No. 1 pick Travon Walker made a boneheaded play by throwing down Davis Mills in a 6-6 game in the fourth quarter on a third-and-20. That led to the game-winning touchdown, and Trevor Lawrence wasn’t able to answer again. He is now 1-8 at 4QC and 2-9 at all game-winning drive opportunities, the worst records among active starters.

Either we gassed up the Jaguars a bit too much after those wins over the Colts and Chargers, or the Texans inexplicably have their number. Either way, what a weird cat turd of a division race this is.

49ers at Panthers: That double-clutching pick-six Baker Mayfield threw may be the highlight/lowlight of his time in Carolina. The play we remember him for. His arm just doesn’t look strong enough for the NFL right now. It was surprising to see him throw for 215 yards in this matchup, but the 22-point loss was no surprise.

The biggest surprise is if I wake up and find that Matt Rhule isn’t gone already. It’s clearly not going to work in Carolina for him (or Baker). Just in case this is the last time, here are those updated Rhule numbers:

  • 0-16 in game-winning drive opportunities
  • 1-27 when allowing 17 or more points
  • 0-24 when allowing more than 21 points
  • 2-25 when not leading by at least 7 points at halftime
  • 3-27 when not leading by double digits at halftime

As for the 49ers, nice win but they need to stop racking up the injuries. Nick Bosa was the latest star to go down. The 49ers were the only NFC West team to win on Sunday, moving to 3-2 while the rest of the division is 2-3. This defense and the yards after contact/catch from Deebo Samuel may be plenty enough to win the title.

Dolphins at Jets: The Jets were my upset pick this week, but even I was surprised to see them hang 40 points on Miami with Zach Wilson scoring another touchdown and rookie back Breece Hall gaining 197 yards from scrimmage. They did catch a break with Teddy Bridgewater leaving with a head injury after one pass and a grounding penalty for a safety. Third-string rookie Skylar Thompson was hardly a nightmare, but he did have a success rate of 1-for-6 in the fourth quarter when the Jets blew open a 19-17 lead into a 40-17 final.

Miami missed a 54-yard field goal that would have given the Dolphins the lead with 13:15 left, then Thompson fumbled on the next drive, leading to a 5-yard touchdown drive. That basically put this one away, and now the 3-2 Jets have the tiebreaker over the 3-2 Dolphins. Life comes at you fast.

Bears at Vikings: I don’t know if the Earth can handle all these 4QC/GWD by the Vikings:

This was the third in a row and maybe the most shocking since Minnesota completed its first 18 passes of the game and led 21-3. Letting Justin Fields lead a comeback to take a 22-21 lead can’t be good for Minnesota’s playoff prospects, but to Kirk Cousins’ credit, he led another game-winning drive and even snuck in the winning touchdown himself. Fields actually seemed up to the task of answering with a touchdown, but a great defensive play by Cameron Dantzler forced Ihmir Smith-Marsette, a Minnesota fifth-round pick in 2021 (double agent?), to fumble with 1:01 left.

I honestly don’t know if the 2022 Vikings (4-1) are all that good since they’ve largely shown us the same things they always did under Mike Zimmer: Win over Green Bay, close wins over the NFC bottom dwellers, and Cousins shit his pants on a Monday night in Philly. A trip to Buffalo in Week 10 will be the next big challenge for a team that could actually be 7-1 going into that one.

Seahawks at Saints: Sean Payton had to love the Taysom Hill three-hour love fest this game turned into. Hill rushed for 112 yards and three touchdowns, including the game-winning score from 60 yards out, threw a 22-yard touchdown pass, and recovered a fumble. The Seahawks had some explosive plays on offense again behind Geno Smith, but he took a badly-timed 14-yard sack on a third down, and the Saints were able to run out the clock in a 39-32 win.

Lions at Patriots: The Lions went from 281 combined points in four games, including last week’s 48-45 loss to Seattle, to getting blanked 29-0 by third-string rookie quarterback Bailey Zappe and the Patriots. Was this Matt Patricia’s revenge game? Amon-Ra St. Brown returned and had four catches for 18 yards. Tight end T.J. Hockenson went from 179 yards and two scores last week to one 6-yard catch in this game. This was some extreme regression, and arguably the biggest dud ever laid by a Dan Campbell team.

Next week: It’s not going to reach the hype of 2007 Patriots vs. Colts, but 2022 Bills at Chiefs is a huge one. Maybe the biggest game this regular season because getting home-field advantage is going to be very important for Buffalo to maintain its favorite status for the Super Bowl. I will be all over this matchup this week.

NFL Stat Oddity: Week 13

~ Scott ~ 9 Comments

Wait, was that actually more of a normal week in the NFL? What does a return to “normalcy” in the NFL in 2021 even look like? It still means a week where the Lions win a game against the Vikings on the final play, the No. 1 seed Ravens lose to their bitter rival, the Dolphins stepped over Mike Glennon’s neck to continue one of the most irrelevant five-game winning streaks you’ll ever see, and the Chiefs beat Denver for the 12th time in a row.

But it was also easy wins for Tampa Bay, Arizona, and the Rams as Rob Gronkowski, DeAndre Hopkins, and Cooper Kupp all got reacquainted with the end zone, territory unbeknownst to the Falcons, Bears, and Jaguars. Jonathan Taylor vacations there every week and he scored two more times to help the Colts beat the Texans 31-0, a rout worse than the first one this season. Thanks for shitting up the product, Deshaun. But at least it was nice to see Kyler Murray and Hopkins return to action for an Arizona team that continues to win in impressive fashion, now 10-2.

Overall, we had just five close games in the fourth quarter this week. Monday night between the Bills and Patriots could be the game of the week, but I am going to start with (probably) the last time Ben Roethlisberger faces the Baltimore defense at Heinz Field. I also have a personal story to share in Broncos-Chiefs.

This season in Stat Oddity:

Ravens at Steelers: Tomlin 16, Harbaugh 14

The Ravens-Steelers rivalry may be an acquired taste, but there are no two teams I’d rather watch play a low-scoring game than these two. The 30th meeting between the Ravens and Steelers since 2008 was another memorable finish with Mike Tomlin taking a 16-14 edge against John Harbaugh with a coaching decision at the end very much being the headline.

But it is also the 21st meeting out of 30 where both coaches had their desired starting quarterback available. Tomlin is now 14-7 in those matchups compared to 2-7 with the quarterback disadvantage.

Ben Roethlisberger, 7-1 against the Ravens since Christmas 2016, may have played his final home game against his main division rival. He delivered one of his best performances of the last three years, completing 21-of-31 passes for 236 yards and two touchdowns. Diontae Johnson even dropped a 35-yard touchdown before halftime, and Ray-Ray McCloud had a 32-yard completion taken away after a suspect review. The numbers could have been even nicer for Roethlisberger, who led the Steelers to three straight scores in the fourth quarter. He now has 11 game-winning drives against the Ravens in his career.

Baltimore hogged the ball early but did not finish enough drives for points. The Pittsburgh defense fluctuated between incredible and terrible as only this 2021 unit can. The pressure was at times unbelievable, and Lamar Jackson did not handle it well, taking seven sacks and throwing a pick in the end zone on the opening drive. But there were plenty of other times where the Steelers displayed shoddy tackling and left receivers wide open.

On Pittsburgh’s game-winning drive, the Steelers had a 2nd-and-2 at the Baltimore 13 at the two-minute warning with the Ravens still having all their timeouts. I’m positive Harbaugh had the Ravens do something smart that I’ve seen them exploit before. The Ravens were blatantly offsides, giving the Steelers a first down without running clock. Had the Steelers taken a few plays to get the first down, they may have been able to run out the clock and kick a field goal on the last snap. This made it easier for the Ravens to use their timeouts and really encouraged the Steelers to convert a third down for a touchdown. They did with Roethlisberger’s pass to Johnson, who stepped up big after his drop earlier. The critical two-point conversion to Pat Freiermuth was also completed with 1:48 left.

Pittsburgh kicker Chris Boswell looked like he might be the scapegoat for this one after badly missing a game-tying extra point in the fourth quarter and bouncing his late kick-off out of bounds to put the Ravens at the 40 with a chance to tie. Again, the defense fluctuated between great and terrible as the Ravens marched for a touchdown with 12 seconds left. Instead of playing for overtime, Harbaugh had his team go for the win.

I liked the decision. Harbaugh mentioned the injuries at corner and was worried the Steelers would continue to march on their defense with ease. Beyond that, I just think the Ravens had a good shot of converting and winning the game on that one play. However, I would have preferred something that used Lamar’s mobility like a QB draw or run-pass option. T.J. Watt, who had a monster game with 3.5 sacks, was able to get just enough pressure on Jackson to make his two-point pass inaccurate for Mark Andrews, who was open to win the game.

The Steelers dodged a bullet, but this season has seen both teams win a lot of close games like this one. Pittsburgh keeps its playoff hopes alive and this could lead to a very interesting rematch in Baltimore in Week 18.

I said I enjoy the low-scoring games between those two. I’m not sure I will feel that way when Roethlisberger moves on and the Steelers are trying to win with the likes of Mason Rudolph and the latest Kordell Maddo’Donnell. But Sunday felt important for this team. You wish they showed some of this intensity in Cincinnati last week, but nothing seems to get this team going quite like a Baltimore game.

If this is the last big one for this era, then at least it ended the way it deserves to.

Broncos at Chiefs: I Should Name My Son Javonte

Do I have to talk about Kansas City’s ho-hum 22-9 win we all watched together on Sunday night, or do I jump straight to my biggest gambling win of the season?

Let’s get the game over with. The defensive turnaround for the Chiefs continues. Barring what the Patriots do on Monday night, this could be the top scoring defense in points per game since Week 6 after being the worst in the first five weeks. Remarkable stuff.

Were the Broncos lighting the league up this year? Of course not, but the nine points are only the second time Denver was held under 13 this year. Meanwhile, the Broncos held Patrick Mahomes’ offense to 16 points, Mahomes under 200 yards passing, Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill under 50 yards combined, and the Broncos still couldn’t cover a 9.5-point spread. I felt that dropped passes, including another tipped pick, contributed largely to Kansas City’s offense being ineffective in this one. But as I have pointed out before, Denver defends Mahomes better than most. This game will be another data point in favor of that for sure.

Teddy Bridgewater played a terrible game and had his second multi-interception game of the season, including a pick-six to Dan Sorensen in the fourth quarter to put the exclamation point on this one.

Well, one exclamation point. That pick-six helped give the Broncos the ball back in a 22-3 game. Perhaps that took away some of the intensity from the defense, knowing the win was all but in the bag at this point. The Broncos finally marched down the field, and instead of taking 11 minutes to come away with zero points like they did in the second quarter, Bridgewater found rookie back Javonte Williams in the flat on fourth-and-7 for a 13-yard touchdown with 5:12 left.

A meaningless touchdown in the grand scheme of things? Sure, but an extremely important one for me. It was the final leg to five parlays for me, including my biggest win of the season at +15381

The reason there was no Stat Oddity in Week 12 is because I was at home nervously waiting to hear what was going on with my mom in the emergency room. Her blood pressure was out of control, and I wasn’t allowed in the ambulance with her because of the protocol during COVID, the same virus that had just taken my only aunt from me on Thanksgiving Day. The stress of that is what caused my mom’s blood pressure to spike. She does not have COVID.

Trying to watch the Ravens and Browns finish that ugly game was a tough 90 minutes before I started to get updates that my mom was alright. She is doing better this week and will be fine. I got my booster on Wednesday, and it was no big deal. Just a sore shoulder for about 72 hours.

From dark thoughts a week ago to screams of joy at Javonte’s touchdown, these last few weeks really encapsulate the extreme ups and downs that life can bring. Sunday was that kind of day all around, from the Steelers’ nail-biting win over Baltimore to the agony and glory of watching Williams pull off a golden score for me.

It’s the type of successful betting day I feel I should have had three or four times during this crazy season. But I’m happy with this one. I thought for sure I blew it on the final leg again, and I would have blown it either way as I probably would have picked Hill or Kelce or CEH to score for the Chiefs had I not gone for Javonte. Alas, I picked the right guy who scored Denver’s only touchdown of the night in what was a golden opportunity with Melvin Gordon out. Williams shined with 178 yards from scrimmage, but that touchdown will always stick with me as a happy memory during what have been some very unhappy times during this pandemic.

But tonight, I can choose happiness.

Chargers at Bengals: What in Tarnation…

This conference is f’n weird this year. The Bengals annihilated the Steelers a week ago. The Chargers had an ugly loss in Denver. I thought this would be the closest finish in the 1 p.m. slate. So, of course the Chargers jumped out to a 24-0 lead.

However, while the Bengals did not try 8+8+8, they were a two-point conversion away from tying this one late in the third quarter as the Chargers were looking to blow another huge lead in a game with so many ugly, fluky turnovers from both sides. Austin Ekeler especially was trying to create his own Chargers BINGO square with two lost fumbles.

But Joe Mixon outdid him. The Bengals failed on their game-tying two, but they got the ball back down 24-22 going into the fourth quarter. They were in field-goal range too when Mixon just lost the ball, and it was returned 61 yards for a crushing touchdown. The Chargers led 31-22, sacked an ailing Joe Burrow (pinky), and added a knockout score in a game that eventually ended 41-22.

So, it was a blowout, then a huge comeback attempt that made it the tightest game going around 3 p.m., then a blowout again. Just a weird game where both quarterbacks were absolutely under siege at times by the defenses (10 sacks between them). But the Chargers made fewer mistakes and got the big win to move to 7-5.

49ers at Seahawks: Don’t Call it a Comeback

This was my most confident upset pick of the week. As I said on Saturday, Russell Wilson/Pete Carroll/D.K. Metcalf were due a good showing at home after such a poor run of things lately, including that Monday night loss to Washington. Wilson owns the 49ers in his career (17-4 now). Kyle Shanahan is an overrated coach. George Kittle was amazing in this game (181 yards and two touchdowns), but I think Deebo Samuel is a big security blanket for Jimmy Garoppolo, and he’s been a huge part of the running game recently. If Samuel wasn’t out injured for this game, I don’t think I would have been confident enough to pick Seattle. Certainly not enough to put $50 on them in my big parlay that hit above.

Still, it wasn’t the prettiest game. The Seahawks needed a 73-yard touchdown run on a fake punt to get things going. Wilson was an uncharacteristic 30-of-37 for 231 yards, the fewest passing yards he’s ever had in a game with at least 25 completions. He also lost 50 yards on four sacks. Tight end Gerald Everett nearly choked the game away with two lost fumbles, including one at the 2-yard line when the Seahawks could have gone up two scores in the final four minutes.

I always question Shanahan’s late-and-close decision making. The 49ers looked like they wanted to score at the last possible second and either go to overtime or win on a two-point conversion. That’s nice but things rarely work out that way. The Elijah Mitchell runs were not effective on the day, and the 49ers used two downs on them inside the Seattle 7. After one incompletion, the 49ers were already facing fourth-and-ballgame. Garoppolo’s pass was tipped at the line and that was enough for the Seahawks to hold on for the 30-23 win.

I don’t think Seattle is “back” by any means, but at least we know this team can still sweep the 49ers.

Vikings at Lions: 1-15-1 Still Possible

Bust out the Faygo for the 2008 Lions and 2017 Browns. These Lions will not be going 0-16-1. I warned in Saturday’s preview that the Vikings already came dangerously close to losing to this team this year. They had to set up a 54-yard field goal in 37 seconds to win that one.

Dalvin Cook missed both Detroit games for Minnesota, but I don’t think you can fault the way Alexander Mattison played in his place for why the Vikings struggled. Mattison had 124 yards and a touchdown in this one. Adam Thielen left injured, but Kirk Cousins still threw for 340 yards and Justin Jefferson had 182 yards. The offense came back to deliver another late lead at 27-23, but the defense was a huge letdown against Jared Goff and the league’s worst receiving corps. Goff threw for 296 yards and three touchdowns in this one, which Detroit led most of the way.

I want to quickly highlight something stupid Jay Feely said late in the game. I know that’s his brand, but the strategy is worth talking about. He criticized Dan Campbell’s aggressive move to go for a 4th-and-1 at his own 28 with a 23-21 lead and 4:08 left. It was incredibly aggressive as the Vikings had four clock stoppages, would have been in go-ahead field goal range with a stop, and the Lions were down to one timeout. In fact, I probably would have punted there.

But Feely’s reasoning just made me like the decision more. Feely tried to say that the Lions should punt because like on Thanksgiving against Chicago, the Bears ran out the final eight minutes and Detroit never got the ball back. He added that Cleveland ran out the clock on Detroit in Week 11 too. It could happen again.

Well guess what? IT’S MORE LIKELY TO HAPPEN HERE IF YOU GIVE THEM FOUR MINUTES TO SET UP A FIELD GOAL. While converting and running out the clock is the ideal outcome, by Goff getting strip-sacked and putting the Vikings in the red zone, he actually helped facilitate a quicker go-ahead score and saved his offense time for their game-winning drive. The Vikings had to score on a third down with 1:50 left, saving Goff almost two minutes to answer the 27-23 deficit.

He needed every second of it on the 14-play, 75-yard drive. The Vikings used their timeouts late in the red zone, and Mike Zimmer’s defense was shameful in allowing such a large cushion on the last play of the game when you know they have to go for the end zone. How are you going to give someone like Aroma St. Brown a cushion to score the game-winning touchdown with no time left? His name is actually Amon-Ra, but he must have had a strong aroma if you weren’t attaching someone to his hip as the only receiver to run towards the left side of the end zone. Just a ridiculous ending.

But somehow perfectly fitting for the Minnesota franchise. A lead of at least six points in every game this season and the Vikings are 5-7. I knew the Lions would win one this year. Campbell’s had them too close too many times not to.

Hurry-Up Finish

Some quick thoughts as I race to complete more tasks before getting to sleep.

Tampa Bay at Atlanta: Tom Brady for MVP (Mass Volume Player)

Leave it up to Tom Brady to throw 51 passes in a game his team never trailed, where his defense only allowed 10 points on nine drives, and it only looked semi-close because he threw an embarrassing pick-six before halftime to a defensive lineman.

Has the standard at the position fallen off so much this year that we have to seriously consider this as the front-runner for MVP? Oh, and he’ll be getting the Bills on Sunday, fresh off their huge clash with the Patriots in shitty weather and after losing Tre’Davious White to a torn ACL. You see how the stars are aligning, right? While Antonio Brown’s buffoonery leading to a suspension may have been a problem in this past, this offense is simply too loaded when Rob Gronkowski is playing this well to go along with Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Leonard Fournette, and that offensive line. Brown will be back for the playoffs too…

Washington at Raiders: No Flag, No Win

Tell me you weren’t expecting a flag when Derek Carr threw a bomb, down 17-15, with 31 seconds left to start his final drive. I cannot knock him for the smart, aggressive play to try to immediately get into range for a game-winning field goal. But something tells me he specifically threw that one with the intent to get a flag instead of a completion. The refs did not oblige, and the Raiders lost another low-scoring game to a Washington team that’s suddenly won four in a row.

Washington (6-6) has all five of its games left against the NFC East in a real scheduling quirk. The Chiefs can deliver a potential knockout blow to these Raiders (6-6) in Week 14 – that’s if they didn’t already do it in Week 10. Since their bye week, the Raiders are 1-4 and have been held under 17 points in each loss. Only the flag fest on Turkey Day in Dallas was a high-scoring win.

Eagles at Jets: Minshew Mania Returns

Will Zach Wilson ever have a game in the NFL as good as Gardner Minshew’s first surprise start for the Eagles on Sunday? It’s a legitimate question. Minshew was 20-of-25 for 242 yards and two touchdowns. This was tight end Dallas Goedert’s 57th NFL game and it was the first time he had two touchdowns to go along with a career-high 105 receiving yards. Not bad.

This was actually a shootout at first with the Jets scoring three touchdowns on their first three drives. But they soon remembered they were the Jets and scored nothing on their last five drives. The Eagles scored three touchdowns, four field goals, then punted on their eighth and final possession.

In a game between the Jets and Eagles with Wilson and Minshew getting the starts, a 33-18 finish with only one ugly Wilson interception is about the best experience you could have asked for.

Next week: Depending on how the Bills look against the Patriots on Monday night, this could be two weeks in a row where MNF draws the best game. Next week has Arizona-Rams, an important one in the NFC. While Bills-Buccaneers looked like the great one on paper from April through recently, I’m not sure these teams are delivering on expectations so far. But that won’t stop Tony Romo from salivating over it as a Super Bowl preview.  

Pittsburgh Steelers: The Day the Whole Offense Went Away

~ Scott ~ 2 Comments

The date was December 2, 2020. It was a Wednesday afternoon. The Pittsburgh Steelers were 10-0 and while it was rarely pretty, they led the NFL in scoring differential (+124). They were the 10th team in NFL history to score at least 24 points in each of their first 10 games, and while they stick out like a sore thumb on such a list, they were still there. Ben Roethlisberger’s arm strength was limited post elbow surgery, but his anticipation was better than ever, and he was delivering good touchdown throws and performing on third down and in the red zone.

Things were working out for the team.

In a game that was rescheduled multiple times for COVID-19 reasons, the Steelers were finally hosting a reduced roster from Baltimore. Whether it was restlessness from the delays or rust or division familiarity or the weirdness of playing on Wednesday afternoon in an empty stadium, the Steelers struggled to score in a way they hadn’t all season. They got a pick-six to start the game, but the offense only contributed 13 points in the 19-14 win. Roethlisberger completed 36-of-51 passes, but for only 266 yards as the Steelers dropped way too many passes. But he delivered a great pass late to James Washington to put the game away and move the Steelers to 11-0.

Little did we know that this hiccup would become a chronic cough that has choked the life out of the offense and the team to this day.

The Steelers had a very similar performance the following Monday against Washington, but this time they did not find a way to close the game and suffered their first loss of the season. Things got even worse in Buffalo with Roethlisberger throwing a 51-yard pick-six before halftime that led to a 26-15 loss. In Week 15 in Cincinnati on a Monday night, the Steelers turned in maybe their worst offensive half of football in the Roethlisberger era. No play summarized the struggle better than Roethlisberger throwing a drag route to JuJu Smith-Schuster on a third-and-7 where he was blown up and fumbled. The Steelers were about to lose their fourth game in a row to the Colts before a vintage Roethlisberger rally from down 17 points in the second half at home. But then the starters rested against Cleveland, lost 24-22 to let the Browns make the playoffs, and then were blown away 28-0 in the first quarter in the wild card game after center Maurkice Pouncey blew the opening snap for a touchdown. The Steelers tried to make a brilliant comeback but fell well short in a 48-37 loss.

Offensive coordinator Randy Fichtner fell on the sword and lost his job, one that he was never cut out for. However, the Steelers made the same mistake by promoting from within to give Matt Canada the job for 2021. The offensive line was completely replaced by players of little caliber or value. Alabama running back Najee Harris was drafted in the first round despite a lack of blocking in place for him after the Steelers finished dead last in rushing in 2020. Roethlisberger decided to give it one more go and return for his 18th season.

And yet September 2021 looked like much of December 2020 and January 2021. The new offensive line is worse and Roethlisberger is taking more hits and sacks now despite getting rid of the ball faster than any quarterback. The Steelers remain last in rushing, not even cracking 50 yards in either of the last two losses. The receivers just dropped eight passes on Sunday, though most of the short variety again as the air yards remain limited in Pittsburgh. The defense has not been able to play well the last two weeks due to mounting injuries, most notably with T.J. Watt’s groin.

Nothing is working out now, and with four tough opponents coming up, it is hard to see how the Steelers stay relevant into December this year.

I’m not interested in rehashing everything that has gone wrong for the Steelers in the last year. I mean, I will share this JuJu route chart again just because it’s hilarious and sad and sums up things well for this inept offense:

But with such a noticeable decline starting in that Wednesday game against Baltimore, I wanted to do a comparison of the 10-0 start to the now 10-game sample since that has seen the Steelers go 3-7 with a win over the COVID Ravens, a huge comeback against the Colts, and a surprise comeback in Buffalo in Week 1 that looks like a mirage now.

Yeah, that’s a pretty big decline in everything but sack rate, but Roethlisberger not wanting to hold the ball long anymore has not really been a bonus for this offense. This year he is just running out of time sooner.

But if anything, I would hope this comparison shows that it is flat out wrong to say the Steelers were playing this bad when they were 10-0 last year. The offense clearly had limitations and the running game decay was settling in by Week 8 when the Steelers became the first team in NFL history to win three straight games without rushing for 50 yards. But this offense still produced and found ways to put up points every week for 10 games.

Then December came and all hell broke loose. Scoring has gone down 9.3 points per game. They are throwing the ball more but throwing it worse with more interceptions and dropping more balls. The offense has not scored a single point in the first quarter since Week 10 against the Bengals last year. They are worse in the red zone and on third and fourth down.

But the running game has particularly been a historic embarrassment with 54.0 yards per game and 3.1 YPC in the last 10 games. This is not an indictment on Harris as it starts up front and this goes back long before he was drafted. It was never a smart draft pick.

If it wasn’t for James Conner popping a 25-yard run in Jacksonville last year, the Steelers would be on a 14-game streak of not rushing for more than 86 yards. They can soon tie and break the post-WWII record for games without rushing for 90 yards, having not done so in 10 games going into Green Bay on Sunday.

The Steelers have failed to rush for 50 yards in eight of their last 14 games. In Bill Cowher’s 261 games as coach of the Steelers (1992-2006), they had nine games where they didn’t crack 50 rushing yards. My how times have changed. The post-merger record for most games in a two-year span with under 50 rushing yards is 11 by the 2006-07 Lions. The Steelers have a decent shot at breaking that one with 14 games to go this year.

When you can’t run the ball for simple 3 or 4-yard gains…

When you waste the first quarter every week…

When you don’t throw to the middle of the field anymore…

When you don’t throw deep except for go routes down the left sideline and DPI is your best hope of advancement…

When you don’t bother to use play-action passing…

When you drop easy passes…

When you can’t block for more than 2.3 seconds…

You don’t have an NFL offense anymore. You are more akin to putting 11 crash-test dummies through the motions for three hours a week.

As much as the 10-0 start had me feeling awkward, I didn’t know how bad things would get. When Roethlisberger retires after this season and the Steelers are back in the hunt for a franchise quarterback — the last search took two decades — I have a feeling we’ll be looking back at December 2, 2020 as a date that will live in infamy.

It was the day the whole offense went away in Pittsburgh.