2026 NFL Stat Oddity: Week 8

NFL Stat Oddity 2026

Week 8 felt like a major shift in the 2026 NFL picture. The Vikings finally lost a game, Andy Reid royally blew a game in Denver, the Steelers took down Deshaun Watson eight times without his consent, and the Ravens’ season may be over after another major injury for Lamar Jackson.

We had eight games with a comeback opportunity, and we watched five more teams blow a double-digit lead. That brings the season total to 25, halfway to the 2022 record of 50 such games.

And yeah, Joe Burrow won an NFL game for the first time ever after trailing in the last 2:00. Only took a game against the 1-win Titans (+12.5) to do it, but that’s why you have to put things in context.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Chiefs at Broncos: Game of the Week

We haven’t had a lot of big AFC games yet this season, but this one may have been the most pivotal result through Week 8. The Chiefs had a chance to complete the sweep of Denver, last year’s No. 1 seed, but blew a 24-13 lead in the fourth quarter. The Broncos (6-2) take over first place in the AFC West, and there’s a chance they don’t relinquish it given the remaining schedules for both teams.

The Chiefs went from about a 65.5% chance to win the AFC West before this game to 46.5% after losing it. More than anyone, this loss was on coach Andy Reid after the 68-year-old ran through his greatest hits of game mismanagement and career-long blind spots. Sean Payton and his staff ate up Reid and his staff in this one.

Short-yardage Woes: You can start with the dichotomy that decided the game at the goal line. Sean Payton’s offense was able to scheme open two wide-open touchdown passes on fourth-and-goal. Meanwhile, the Chiefs had three cracks from the 1-yard line in a 28-24 game and couldn’t come up with the right call or strategy to score. They even brought out “Corn Dog” from their Super Bowl wins and the Broncos were all over it. After Mahomes had the game-winning touchdown pass to Rice, it didn’t count because Jaylon Moore had a false start (little flinch). Reid refuses to run a QB sneak package because of a freak injury to Mahomes in Denver in 2019 (dislocated kneecap), and it continues to hurt the Chiefs to this day.

Put Noah Gray in the Tush Push formation as teams do with their tight ends, including the Steelers who scored on a touchdown before halftime with Pat Freiermuth. Put Justin Fields in the game and run him. What else are you paying him for? Or just man up and let Mahomes sneak it. It’s gotten silly to the point where it could cost the Chiefs another Super Bowl run.

Gadget Guys: Sean Payton was pressed for not using Marvin Mims more on offense this season. Mims had four touches for 29 yards in this one, including a nice 14-yard run on one of the fourth-quarter touchdown drives. Meanwhile, the Chiefs couldn’t get their gadget player, Xavier Worthy, going again. He had 13 yards on 6 targets and 3 catches. He ran out of bounds on the Corn Dog play the Chiefs used to score on years ago, not even giving Mahomes a target to throw to. He has no awareness for the field at all.

Rookie Training Wheels: The game was a good display for mid-round rookie backs on both sides with Emmett Johnson (143 yards from scrimmage) and Jonah Coleman (104 YFS) both scoring and both carrying the offense on the day. But the Broncos still relied on Coleman on the game-winning drive after his 51-yard catch and 5-yard touchdown run with 1:56 left.

But the Chiefs stuck with Kenneth Walker, who hasn’t had a good two weeks now, on their final drive. Johnson was clearly running hard all game, and going with a run at the 1 with him (they had a timeout) would have been a call the Broncos didn’t expect. With how great Johnson looked, I’m giving him a shot there as Walker has not been a good short-yardage back. He was stuffed at the 1 on second down.

Also, rookie wideout Cyrus Allen had two catches for 20 yards but may have had a long touchdown catch too if he didn’t stop early on a deep route. That seemed to penalize him for the rest of the game. He still outproduced Worthy, who the Chiefs just can’t seem to quit despite terrible production.

Reid needs to trust the rookies more, but he’s always had issues with teaching them to be prepared earlier in the season.

Conservative Big Red: Reid’s game management in the fourth quarter was as bad as you’ve ever seen in a game in the Mahomes era. It started right away with the Chiefs up 24-13 and facing a fourth-and-inches. There was confusion over the spot, but Reid could have challenged (it was close) and he could have gone for it. He decided to punt rather quickly, and the Broncos drove 80 yards for 8 points with relative ease.

If you did any honest study of your play and the way the Broncos thrive in the 4Q on offense, you’d know that was a worthwhile 4th-and-inches to go for. The fact that Reid continues to punt in these situations with Mahomes as his quarterback and trusts a defense that usually folds in the clutch just goes to show he is a dinosaur that doesn’t want to learn new things. It was a terrible punt decision.

But there was more. With 2:44 left, Kansas City faced a 3rd-and-2 at the Denver 30. Why not run the ball if you’re supposed to be this great running team now? A pass comes with the double risk of a sack or pick, and sure enough, the Broncos got their first sack of the game. Mahomes probably should have thrown it away, but the play call was terrible in that spot.

Then Reid decided to let Harrison Butker, the struggling kicker, try one from 54 yards out in the rain. Of course he missed it. The field goal to go up 6 is really the worst decision there between punting and going for it. Yet that’s the choice Reid made. Again, I don’t even blame Butker that much for this one. The Chiefs needed to treat this drive as touchdown or bust (or run out the clock) and they botched it.

The defense only needed two plays to give up the touchdown, so at least they were quick about it. The offense had plenty of time (1:48) after a good kick return by Johnson (what can’t he do?), but Reid’s poor clock management shined again. I actually think that good kick return might have been the worst outcome since it just made the Chiefs call worse plays by trying to work on the clock and score as late as possible instead of running the most optimal plays to score a touchdown.

In fact, that’s how Pete Carroll and the Seahawks lost Super Bowl 49. Same score too (28-24). Sure, you need to be aware of the clock and you don’t want to score a 50-yard touchdown right away. But you can’t slow-walk a touchdown and time it out perfectly. A field goal, yes, but not a touchdown. You take it when you can get it, and if you can’t defend a 3-point lead with 20, 30, 40 seconds left, then that’s your fault.

Once the Chiefs got to the 1, I’m calling for the QB sneak. Maybe twice if I have to. But we know that’s now what Reid does.

Stubborn Reid: Finally, it’s fitting this game ended with left guard Mike Caliendo getting beat and giving up a game-ending sack on 4th-and-goal. Caliendo was a surprise start for Kingsley Suamataia, who was benched by Reid for the second time this season. Once again, the matter is undisclosed, so your guess is good as mine. But by actively starting the worse guard who gave up as many pressures (5) in Denver as Kingsley has all year, Reid cost his quarterback and team a huge game. You can talk about accountability, but you lose a lot of credibility the week your team signs Justin Tucker. So, what’s really going on here?

I’ve picked the Chiefs to lose these last two weeks, and they showed you why both games. They weren’t even playing that well when they were 5-0, and teams like Seattle and Denver can exploit these mistakes and roster flaws. But Sunday could really send the team on a downward spiral if they’re not careful.

But as long as Reid is the coach, I don’t see anything changing. They need to move on after the season, probably from GM Veach too. Get a fresh start with young ambition and ideas as Reid has overstayed his welcome just like he did in Philadelphia. Thank him for the service and the wins, but the game has passed him by just like it did for Bill Belichick in New England. It’s the natural cycle of a coaching life. Reid will be 69 next season, and that’s not nice in this league.

Meanwhile, Denver continues to beat the odds. They had a record-tying eight game-winning drives last year, and they’re already 5-1 at GWD opportunities this season. Bo Nix has the most 4QC wins (13) through a quarterback’s first three seasons, and he’s already tied for the most through four seasons. He’s played 2.5 seasons.

NFL QB - Most 4th Quarter Comeback Wins by Year

Nix also has the most game-winning drives (16) through three seasons, and his record is 16-6 (.727) in these games. It’s insane, it should blow up in Denver’s faces eventually, but it hasn’t so far. Nix might prove to be the Eli//Flacco/Spygate-era Brady of his generation as he goes on a Super Bowl run this year.

Remember, Eli and Flacco ended multiple playoff runs for Brady during his decade-long title drought. Maybe Nix is that kind of roadblock for Mahomes in the AFC West, denying him easy entries to home playoff games after the Chiefs’ reign in the division ended last year.

As long as Reid is there doing the same things over and over and expecting a different result, it’s more likely to be the case. The Chiefs royally blew this one, and that’s on the coach we criticized for the same reasons during the Bush presidency.

Vikings at Lions: The ’72 Dolphins Had Nothing to Worry About

Minnesota’s first loss snapped an improbable 11-game winning streak dating back to last year. But the Lions are probably one of the worst opponents and worst nightmares for the Vikings in 2026:

  • A very talented offense top to bottom that knows Brian Flores’ defense well.
  • A team that can run the ball as Detroit piled up 230 rushing yards (153 for Jahmyr Gibbs), and the Vikings haven’t been tested that much on the ground.
  • Detroit hasn’t been very good defensively, but it shut down the running game for Minnesota as Kyler Murray (35 yards) was their leading rusher on Sunday.
  • Murray’s passive play makes it hard to score enough points and convert enough money downs to win a game like this. The Vikings were 3/10 on third downs and 0/1 on fourth down.

But the ability to get four sacks and the first pick of the season from Jared Goff helped the Vikings maintain a lead for much of this low-scoring game.

Down 12-7 in the fourth quarter, I thought it was a tactical mistake by the Vikings to go for a 4th-and-5 over a 43-yard field goal after a very length injury timeout on a scary play that saw multiple Lions go down. Hopefully Jack Campbell does not have a Ryan Shazier type of injury as I’m not seeing any updates on his condition at 4 AM, which isn’t encouraging.

But I think the Vikings should have just kicked the field goal there after emotions were high on both sides. They forced a three-and-out and led a touchdown drive anyway to take a 15-12 lead with 8:44 left. But Detroit has the offense to answer, and the running game was great on the drive with Goff finding Jameson Williams for a 7-yard touchdown to make it 19-15.

The Vikings had 4:29 left but went three-and-out. This time they punted on a 4th-and-5 from their own 33 with 3:01 left. Probably the right call with the No. 1 defense back in the day. But when you’re on the road and playing an offense like Detroit in today’s NFL, I think you need to go for that one. Give yourself a chance to convert a medium situation, and if you don’t get it, hopefully you force that three-and-out, and at worst you get it back down 22-15 with plenty of time to get the touchdown.

I think that Minnesota punt from Kevin O’Connell, who is used to winning close games, was one of the worst decisions all day in Week 8. The Lions took over and immediately went to work on the ground. Gibbs for 14, Gibbs for 8, a 2-yard push by tight end Sam LaPorta for another first down. By the time it was 3rd-and-1, Goff put the game away on the sneak, and you know Dan Campbell would have gone for it anyway on 4th-and-1 if he didn’t get it.

The Vikings never got the ball back as the Lions took care of the final 2:53. Good win for Detroit (5-2) with winnable games ahead. As for the Vikings, you’re just not seeing enough progress offensively. Murray’s numbers aren’t terrible, but this baseline performance is basically who he is now, and I don’t see any bump in his play like KOC was able to get out of Kirk Cousins (2022) and Sam Darnold (2024).

Ravens at Bills: Disappointment of the Week

Even if the Ravens haven’t been playing well, this was still an interesting game in the AFC on Sunday with the return of Lamar Jackson. Unfortunately, that lasted one snap before Jackson injured his right thumb on a follow-through on a pass from the pocket. It was not a matter of being a running quarterback. It’s the kind of play that could happen to any quarterback on any pass, and it’s a miracle it doesn’t happen every season to several starters.

Worse, Tyler Huntley was soon knocked out with an injury too, putting third-string emergency quarterback Joe Fagnano in a 13-7 game in the second quarter. Apparently it’s “fan-YAWN-oh” on the pronunciation, and it was a yawn after he had to enter the game as an undrafted rookie.

It’s a shame too because this game was there for the taking. Both teams were very sloppy, they already had eight drives each by halftime, there were multiple turnovers, and I thought the Baltimore defense actually played hard this week, even stopping Josh Allen on multiple short-yardage runs.

But with Fagnano unable to sustain drives in a game he probably never thought he’d play in Sunday, the Ravens eventually fell apart in the fourth quarter. Buffalo was already up 23-10, which would have been enough to win, but then two more touchdowns pushed it to a 36-10 blowout.

Meanwhile, this game against backup quarterbacks (minus one throw) will help boost the stats for the Buffalo defense, giving up 10 points on 12 drives, including a 17-yard touchdown drive. But they were never really tested here.

Jackson is on injured reserve and could be lost for the season, which is quickly turning into another lost one with the Ravens at 4-4 and Jacksonville up next on a short week. Some even think Jackson may have played his last down with Baltimore, which would have sounded insane a year ago or even in early September.

But that’s where things are. Jackson and Allen played in their NFL debut in 2018 against each other. If it really does end for Jackson in Baltimore, his last game was also against Allen’s Bills.

Hate to see it go down like this.

Browns at Steelers: The Rare Wire-to-Wire Domination by Pittsburgh in a Big Game

They said it was over 30 years since the Steelers and Browns met in November with first place in the division on the line. This was certainly their biggest matchup since the 2020 AFC Wild Card, a playoff game where the Browns jumped out to a 28-0 lead.

But for a change, the Steelers under Mike McCarthy instead of Mike Tomlin controlled a big game from start to finish, forcing two Cleveland fumbles on the first two drives, and the running game was superb again with 200 yards. In fact, the passing game and playcalling in the red zone were the only sore spots with D.K. Metcalf dropping a pass that was intercepted, and Aaron Rodgers wasn’t sharp in the red area.

Otherwise, the Steelers played great, they sacked Deshaun Watson eight times, and after going up 27-6 barely five minutes into the third quarter, all scoring ceased from there on both sides.

The Steelers go into the bye at 6-2 and in good shape with a huge game again at Cincinnati in Week 10. It would be nice to get some receivers healthy and make up for Metcalf’s lapses, but they have to feel good about where they are right now.

Titans at Bengals: No, 2-35 Is Not Something to Be Proud Of

When Joe Burrow said Sunday was the kind of game the Bengals have lost the last three years, I agree with him. But I’d go a step further and say it’s the kind of game he never wins with the Bengals, because he really hadn’t before Sunday:

  • Sunday is the first time Burrow has taken a snap after the two-minute warning, trailing, and the Bengals won the game.
  • Burrow was 0-15 when the Bengals allowed more than 31 points in a game.
  • Burrow was 1-35 when trailing in the final 8:00 by any margin, and now he’s 2-35.

None of those records are that bad with the other Cincinnati quarterbacks collectively under Zac Taylor, but the Burrow-led Bengals simply don’t come back late and they don’t win shootouts.

But enter the Tennessee Titans, the 1-win team who was a 12.5-point road underdog in this one (biggest spread of the week). The fact that Burrow needed this type of game (462 passing yards, 6 total touchdowns) against this caliber of opponent after it traded its best defender (Jeffery Simmons) is a red flag.

What happened to the so-called improved defense for the Bengals? Sure, they had a few bright spots like getting a safety when the Titans were dumb enough to call a draw run in their own end zone, and they shut the door in the final minute of regulation and in overtime. But you just gave up 36 points and 440 yards of offense to the Cam Ward-led Titans. Ward had 304 passing yards, a career high.

The Titans haven’t put up 36 points/440 yards since the final game of the 2020 COVID season. Are you kidding me? At home nonetheless?

Why such a high-scoring game? Another flat opening performance with the Bengals falling behind 13-0 for the second week in a row was one issue. Another was the four turnovers, including three picks by Burrow. He also had a fumbled exchange with running back Chase Brown that was switched to Brown as credit. Just not enough precision from the perfectionist throughout this one.

So, you can credit Burrow for coming through in the clutch for a change. But let’s not act like this wasn’t some “arsonist puts out fire” against a really bad opponent performance too that doesn’t bode well for their Super Bowl chances.

In fact, it’s very unusual for a favorite of 12+ points to play like this:

  • It’s just the 20th known NFL game where a 12-point favorite gave up 36+ points.
  • The last instance was in 2014 when the Packers won a 43-37 game on MNF vs. Atlanta, but at least that was a Matt Ryan and Julio Jones masterclass on the other side.

The closest game in NFL history to this one is probably in 2012 when the Texans won 43-37 in overtime against the Jaguars, who were 1-8 at the time. They were getting worked over at home by Chad Henne (354 yards, 4 TD) off the bench for an injured Blaine Gabbert, and Matt Schaub, who had lost 9 straight comeback attempts at the time, ended up throwing for 527 yards and 5 touchdowns, including a walk-off touchdown to Andre Johnson in overtime after the teams already exchanged field goals.

It was the first time in NFL history a team scored twice in overtime to win. The Texans ended up going 2-4 in their final six games that season, losing in the divisional round at New England.

Winning is cool, but the Bengals have trailed by 12-13 points in three of the last four games. It’s good they were able to win the last two weeks, but that’s the Ravens without Lamar and the Titans. We saw what happened when they played the Steelers and Jaguars earlier this year. What happens when they play the other AFC contenders and in the playoffs?

The schedule doesn’t have many tough games left for the Bengals, which is why I always liked them this year. Remember, I picked them to lose the Super Bowl. But based on what I’m seeing, I don’t like the progression of this team as I don’t believe the defense is championship caliber, and the offense is still essentially the same thing we’re used to seeing.

Why say more when I can just wait for the next time they play a contender? The Titans had no business being up 36-29 late, and if you don’t see how a turnover-filled game against a scrub is a bad thing, then I can’t help you.

Falcons at Buccaneers: Who Needs a Completion to Win Anyway?

I’m relieved to say a Bijan Robinson touchdown was the only prop pick I played from this game, because it would have been really frustrating to play anything in the passing game.

Sure, the weather conditions (rain, early winds, a soggy field) made passing very difficult here. Michael Penix was 8-for-24 for 125 yards and four interceptions, and the numbers would be even worse without a fluke 76-yard completion that didn’t score anything in the fourth quarter.

But the rain wasn’t pouring down for all 60 minutes, and the Falcons still didn’t score on any of their five second-half drives either. They also could have ran the ball better like Tampa Bay did. In fact, that’s all Tampa did as Bucky Irving (27-170-1) and Kenneth Gainwell (25-140) became the first teammates in NFL history to get at least 25 carries and 140 rushing yards in the same game.

That’s why Baker Mayfield finished just 0-of-3 passing. The Bucs finished with net -2 passing yards because of one sack. It’s the first time an NFL team won without a completion since the 1974 Bills vs. Jets in a similar rain game.

But this still stands out as odd after the Bucs scored 43 points last week despite Baker only completing 7-of-11 passes for 64 yards. You can only blame so much on the rain. If he’s not healthy enough to throw, then they shouldn’t be playing him.

But after an 0-4 start, the Bucs are 3-5 and right in the hunt for the NFC South title again. They’re just doing it in one of the strangest ways we’ve ever seen.

Chargers at Rams: The Battle of Los Angeles Confirms the Chargers Are the Most Disappointing Team of 2026

The Battle of Los Angeles saw the Chargers (0-6) and Rams (3-4) enter with a combined 3-10 record. This was truly a battle to determine the most disappointing team in 2026, and the Chargers led 9-3 late in the first half before the Rams got a touchdown. Then in true 2026 Chargers form, they completed a deflected Hail Mary to Ladd McConkey for 54 yards, but he was stopped at the 1 as time expired. A meaningless play for a meaningless season.

The Chargers did not score on their final five drives, and the Rams handed them a 10th-straight loss in a 24-9 final. Justin Herbert continues to throw the dumbest interceptions we’ve ever seen from him. His 32.9 QBR is ranked dead last in the NFL as you could make the argument that he should just sit at this point.

Meanwhile, a very damning stat came out of this one as the Chargers have gone 27 offensive drives without a touchdown, the longest NFL streak since Mike McDaniel’s Dolphins went 30 drives in 2024.

Chargering used to be funny and entertaining. This is just sad at this point.

Cardinals at Cowboys: Strange (Minshew) Magic

This game was good evidence for my beliefs that the Cowboys have a dumb coaching staff, Gardner Minshew is cut out for comebacks that Jacoby Brissett wouldn’t lead, and the Cardinals would be the best team in the NFC East right now if they weren’t stuck in the NFC West.

Also, Arizona just owns the Cowboys in this era. It was true in the Tony Romo era, and it’s even more true in the Dak Prescott era with this latest improbable comeback.

Arizona benched Brissett for Minshew with 1:35 left in the third quarter and a 17-3 deficit. Tyler Allgeier deserves credit for getting the comeback going with a 63-yard touchdown run. That was one of four straight touchdown drives by the Cardinals after inserting Minshew, who threw for 188 yards and three touchdowns on less than a half of work.

Dallas still had leads of 24-10, 27-17, and 30-24 in the fourth quarter. But down 27-17 left with 3:54, the Cardinals became just the 32nd NFL team since 2001 to win a game after trailing by multiple scores in the last 5:00 and manufacturing all the points that late.

NFL Comebacks in the Last 5:00 (Down Multiple Scores) 2001-2026

Something I noticed about this table is that the Cardinals join the 2014 Seahawks (NFC Championship Game vs. Green Bay) and 2025 Broncos vs. Giants (the last example) as the only three teams who won despite allowing more points during the comeback. The Packers got a field goal to force overtime, the Giants had a go-ahead touchdown after falling behind, and the Cowboys added a field goal on Sunday.

I guess that part was a bit controversial too on Dallas’ part. The Cardinals got a touchdown to Trey McBride to make it 27-24, then Ryan Flournoy recovered the onside kick with a nice return too with 2:07 left. Arizona had one timeout left. The Cards ended up using that last timeout at 2:02 after a Dallas run for no gain as the offense bottomed out badly late in the game.

I think you could argue a first-down pass with play-action would have been the best move as the Arizona defense likely wouldn’t have expected it. Not even a deep throw for a first down. Just something to gain 6-9 yards and keep you on track.

With 2:02 left, Dallas basically had a free play to throw it with the two-minute warning about to hit, and a first down ends the game. Instead, Dak was sacked, bringing up 3rd-and-16. It’s not like you’re probably going to convert that through the air, so I don’t fault the decision to run, which they did for 3 yards. The Cowboys then kicked a 41-yard field goal on 4th-and-13 with 1:09 left to make it 30-24.

Sure, it’s the dreaded 6-point lead, but what else could you really do on 3rd-and-16 and 4th-and-13? They basically had to kick at that point. Paint the failures on the first two downs of that series, not the last two.

Also, the defense could theoretically stop a backup quarterback from driving 80 yards in 65 seconds, can’t they? I mean, how often do you see a team go 80+ yards in the last 65 seconds, down 4-8 points? Stathead only shows it happening six other times, though I question some of those results.

But Minshew pulled it off as Michael Wilson has turned into a stud. He had three catches for 61 yards on the drive, including a 13-yard touchdown that should have won the game. But Chad Ryland showed he’s not much of a Chad by missing the extra point with 0:05 left. Oof.

Dallas lucked out in getting to OT, and I can understand going on defense first as you don’t want to give that defense four downs to face Arizona’s red-hot offense. But that defense came through with a quick three-and-out. The bleeding finally stopped. Dak and the Cowboys just needed a field goal, and what did this overrated offense do? They also went three-and-out with a 2-yard run, incompletion to CeeDee Lamb, and another sack. The Cowboys had minus-9 net yards on their last three drives.

Arizona just needed a field goal, Wilson and Allgeier got them there, and Ryland redeemed his Chad card with a 42-yard field goal to win it.

Minshew is now 8-15 (.348) at 4QC opportunities while Brissett is 7-27 (.206). I would assume this means a quarterback change has been made for the next game, and while it’s not like this team is probably going anywhere in the NFC West, they could be a little more interesting to watch with the weapons they have. Minshew’s always had a decent feel for the game, and LaFleur is doing a good job with the offense this year.

But what a letdown for Dallas (3-5) as it should be yet another year without reaching the NFC Championship Game.

Raiders at Jets: An AFL-Style Shootout

I figured this game had good scoring potential with Klint Kubiak vs. Aaron Glenn’s defense on one side, and Geno Smith would want to show up the Raiders after what happened last year. An old-school AFL shootout between the two teams from the “Heidi Game” broke out with 71 points scored.

The Jets led most of the way, including two 9-point leads, but the Raiders kept coming back on a day their wide receivers had 4 catches for 38 yards and a touchdown (all by Nailor). The running game wasn’t efficient (2.9 YPC), but it’s unique how they run this offense through the backs and tight ends. Brock Bowers had 92 yards and two touchdowns.

The Raiders took a 35-30 lead in the fourth quarter. On their second attempt at a comeback drive, the Jets got the ball to the Vegas 13, but three straight plays didn’t gain a yard. They faced 4th-and-10 with 4:35 left and had a decision to make down 5.

It’s really a no man’s land situation. I see the argument for kicking the field goal as that should be high percentage, and if you use your four clock stoppages to get the ball back against a team that lacks outside WRs and a good running game (and immobile quarterback), you only need a field goal to win.

On the other hand, I see the argument for needing a touchdown, it’s been a 35-30 shootout game, and Geno was playing well with his receivers. Maybe he can convert it here. But given it was 4th-and-10, I probably would have kicked the field goal too to make it 35-33 as the Jets did. I don’t hate Glenn for that decision.

The problem was the defense played poorly in return. The Raiders finally ripped off some strong runs of 7 and 8 yards, then about the worst thing you can do is give up a 7-yard completion to bring up a 3rd-and-1 when you’re down to your last timeout. Cousins converted that on a sneak – even the senior citizens can do it – and that allowed the Raiders to drain a lot of clock.

I guess there was some second-guessing of Kubiak to kick a 53-yard field goal in a 35-33 game, because a miss would put the ball at the 43, and the Jets would have 27 seconds to set up a winning field goal. But I also don’t like the idea of punting or going for it on 4th-and-5 either, so it’s up to the kicker to earn his paycheck. Gay did from 53 yards out, and the Raiders led 38-33.

To be fair, the Jets still had a shot at this in the end. Touchback to the 35, a pass to Garrett Wilson for 15 and another 15 for the rough tackle, and you’re now 35 yards away with 14 seconds left. That should be a couple of shots to the end zone, but Geno’s first try was a great pick in the end zone by Jeremy Chinn, who sealed the deal and made up for his 15-yard penalty on the hit on Wilson.

Patriots at Dolphins: A Happy Ending in Miami for Robert Kraft

The Dolphins have a lot of experience in beating superior New England teams at home over the years. This game was a later 4:25 start instead of the usual 1:00 PM for these teams, but the Patriots didn’t really show up until the second drive of the third quarter when Drake Maye hit a 43-yard touchdown to Kyle Williams. Maye’s first 17 plays gained 42 yards total against one of the league’s worst defenses.

But a couple of overturned pass plays that went in New England’s favor sparked two touchdown drives, and the Patriots led 17-13 going into the fourth. Malik Willis played well early, but he had a bad pick to start the fourth, and that set up another long Maye touchdown pass to make it 24-13.

The Dolphins wasted nearly 6:00 and missed a 43-yard field goal, a killer. By the time they eventually found the end zone, only 2:04 remained and the onside kick (naturally) didn’t work. One first down was enough for the Patriots to run out the clock and escape with a 24-19 win.

Just not enough plays made by Miami. Like what in the Terry Rozier was this pass rush?

Colts at Jaguars: Like a Department Store Going Out of Business

The Colts have a flash sale going on with their roster, and they already seem checked out of things after Sunday’s 42-7 beatdown in Jacksonville. The rumors were that Brian Thomas Jr. will be traded too from the Jaguars, but he caught the first touchdown in this one (his only catch too).

The Jaguars are quietly rolling along with another dominant performance on both sides of the ball. They started peaking after their London trip last year too, so maybe they’ll go on a similar run here. A chance to drop the Ravens under .500 on TNF next.

As for the Colts, if that ends up being Jonathan Taylor’s last game with the team, he had just 8 carries for 23 yards. The Colts might just be ready to blow it all up and start over.

Eagles at Commanders: Your CITY SNF Game Between Two CITY Teams in a CITY Division

Let’s never do that again, NFL. They had a chance to flex the game between NFC East teams with three wins combined out of SNF and did not do so. We were left with a dull 27-10 win by the Commanders that was closer than the score suggested as the Eagles blew a 10-0 lead early, then blew a 41-yard field goal (loudest doink of the day after a 36-yard make was negated by illegal formation) that would have made it 16-13 midway through the final quarter.

Washington piled it on from there, Tanner McKee struggled as the Eagles lost their sixth straight, and Jayden Daniels finally got his first win since October 5, 2025.

But the Commanders are still 2-4-1 and not inspiring much confidence. At least Giants-Eagles is buried in the Sunday 1 PM slate next week where it belongs. I know this won’t be a shock, but the NFL has the NFC East in prime time again soon in Week 10 when the Commanders are at the Giants for TNF.

With the way this division is going, that could be the de-facto NFC East title game this season.

Next Week

Welp, TNF has already been compromised with Lamar Jackson out for the Ravens in Jacksonville. We might not even have enough time to see Tyler Huntley.

Bengals-Falcons should be a lot kinder overseas to the Atlanta offense unless they’re playing in another downpour. You know the 1 PM slate is bad when Broncos-Panthers is the closest thing to a standout game. Yikes. Guess I’ll be strictly RedZone channel with the Steelers on a bye.

Green Bay-New England will try to carry the 4:25 window. I guess Raiders-49ers could be fun for touchdown scoring. SNF is Bucs-Bears, another case of a team coming off MNF and playing on SNF. Don’t love that nor do I love the idea of seeing this Tampa team that doesn’t want to throw the ball right now.

Bills-Vikings on MNF. I know it won’t hold a candle to their 2022 classic where Justin Jefferson had the best catch of his career (4th-and-18) and Josh Allen had the worst quarterback fumble since Joe Pisarcik.

NFL 2026 Week 8 Predictions: The One Where the NFC East Forced Itself On Us Edition

It’s Week 8 in the NFL and there are some really good games this week, especially with key division races in the AFC North, NFC North, and AFC West. There’s also a Bills vs. Ravens game that could be good with the return of Lamar Jackson.

But what is the NFL leaving in prime time on Sunday night? An NFC East shit-fest between the Eagles (2-5) and Commanders (1-4-1). We already had to watch the Eagles lose 38-21 on Monday night against Dallas, and now they’re a 5.5-point underdog to a 1-win Washington team that hasn’t been fun to watch since they lost the 2024 NFC Championship Game in Philadelphia.

All these great games and it just so happens that they can’t flex any of them in.

  • Oh, we can’t do Steelers-Browns in prime time again or do Vikings-Lions (SNF in Week 15) even though the Eagles and Cowboys get both of their games in a national window (they meet again on Thanksgiving).
  • We can’t flex Chiefs-Broncos in a battle for first place because God forbid the Chiefs are on SNF two weeks in a row even though we’ve recently watched the Falcons and Cowboys in three straight prime-time games.
  • We can’t do Bills-Ravens because the Ravens play on Thursday night (more valid at least).

Instead, let’s get the battle to stay out of last place in the first or second-worst division in the NFL this year. I hope the day comes where this NFC East bias bullshit comes to an end and the NFL starts giving us games people actually want to watch in prime time instead of relying on market size. The ratings don’t back it up that more people want to watch the Eagles and Commanders.

Does Jerry Jones have to meet his maker before we can just collectively move on from these teams in prime time so often? Whatever it takes, I’m ready for a change in how the NFL treats that division on the schedule.

NFL Week 8 Predictions

Spiritually, I should have nailed the correct score on Thursday night as I had the Packers beating Carolina 27-20. It ended 27-19 because a team that is now 2/11 on 2PC under Dave Canales thought it was being smart with this newfangled strategy of going for 2 early that I don’t think is a real difference maker, especially when you have put on tape that you suck far more than league average at these types of plays with your short QB.

NFL Week 8 Predictions

TEN-CIN: The Bengals can get to 5-2 and still objectively won’t have an impressive win in 2026. But after what they did in Miami, I don’t trust them not to let the Titans cover in the backdoor.

BAL-BUF: The Ravens narrowly lost their last two games at Buffalo in the 2024 AFC-DIV and Week 1 last year. It wouldn’t shock me if they found a way to lose this game by 1-3 points too. But I think the vibes are bad coming out of Baltimore after a 35-13 drubbing last week, Lamar might be rusty and not able to run 100%, and the Bills are rested off a bye week.

ARI-DAL: Would be a classic Dallas letdown spot. They’ve lost some games they were heavily favored to the Cards in recent years, including 2025. But I think they’ll win this week.

CLE-PIT: I think Aaron Rodgers is playing better than he was in the first meeting, and the offense showed it could sustain drives in Cleveland. Just have to avoid the sacks and picks, which I think he will at home. And I think with every win being a GWD for Cleveland, it’s about time for some regression for Deshaun Watson as they get to Predator in the 4Q of this one to take him down for the win and first place.

IND-JAX: Firesale going on in Indy. I think the Jaguars come back rested from London trips and start going on a run here with a win by 11+ to start here.

MIN-DET: One of the worst 6-0 teams I’ve ever seen, the Vikings should go down this week. But after the Lions beat GB 20-17 last week, it wouldn’t shock me if that’s the same score here too.

ATL-TB: Hardest division to get a read on other than none of these teams are going far in the playoffs. Baker Mayfield came back last week and barely had to throw for the team to score 43 points. I’m just going to pick them at home, though we’ll see if Penix can have success against that defense the way Kirk Cousins did when he was there.

LV-NYJ: Raiders could stop the slide here, but I think Geno Smith has one of his best games to stick it to the Raiders. Maybe even a Cousins interception by the defense that never gets any to get a start on the Mendoza era next time out after a fifth-straight loss.

LAC-LAR: Battle of Los Angeles and who is the most disappointing team in the NFL this season. You know, with the way the Rams blow leads and the way Justin Herbert has failed on seven straight 4QC/GWD attempts, I’m not sure I’d want to see him with the ball late in this one and a one-score margin. He’s due for a win at some point here after the Chargers have lost 9 straight. But I’m going to trust the Rams to get it done and win by 7+.

KC-DEN: It sounds like Rashee Rice and Jaylon Moore are back, but now the defense is down two corners (Sneed and Delane). That should help Bo Nix, who didn’t even try to throw deep in Week 1 but is coming off his most vertical game of 2026 vs. Arizona. I picked the Chiefs to go 10-7 and split the season series with Denver. I’m not backing away from it now. Denver wins and the Chiefs make a move or two before the trade deadline after another road loss to a contender.

NE-MIA: Not a game I’d bet on. We’ll see if the Dolphins can build off their first win in a home spot they’ve often had success against NE with over the years. But I’m still going to back the Patriots as I don’t like the talent on Miami.

PHI-WAS: Who knows? I’ll split the difference and take the Eagles to cover, Washington to win. It came down to a late 2PC in Week 1 but obviously the Eagles have lost a lot of talent since.

CHI-SEA: Really good offense (Ben Johnson) vs. defense (Mike Macdonald) matchup for these coaches. Johnson is 14-3 ATS in non-division games, and the last time he played a Macdonald defense (2024 Lions vs. Seahawks), his passing offense completed 100% of its 19 attempts. I don’t think Caleb Williams will come close to doing that against this defense, but the way you beat Seattle is having some balance (run the ball) and getting takeaways to force short fields. The Bears do those two things well, so I’m going with the upset here and backing Chicago.

NFL Stat Oddity: Week 16

It is hard to tell when Week 15 ended and Week 16 began in the NFL, but I know I have taken a nap during four of the last six island games. Dolphins-Saints without the Manning brothers is another strong snooze contender tonight, but let’s get through Sunday’s recap first.

There are seven games with a comeback opportunity in Week 16 but only four of them came on Sunday. The only fourth-quarter lead change belonged to the Bears in Seattle.

It was a wildly successful week for a lot of the preseason favorites (KC, TB, LAR, GB, BUF, DAL, TEN). In fact, all seven of those teams won and are currently leading their division after they were the favorites to win the division before Week 1. Only the AFC North, currently led by Cincinnati, is an upside-down battle, but the Bengals took a big step forward to deciding that one.

This season in Stat Oddity:

Ravens at Bengals: Pennywise Floats the Ravens in Passing Yards

I hate to see COVID have a huge impact on deciding the AFC North for the second year in a row, and Baltimore has certainly got the shortest end of that stick, but let’s face some facts. The Ravens have not been a very good team all season and this fourth loss in a row was not on Josh Johnson, the latest quarterback to start in Baltimore.

Joe Burrow has had an imperfect second season, but he has been absolute money against the Ravens. You can claim the Ravens are down bad in the secondary now, but Burrow also had 416 yards and three touchdowns in the 41-17 win in Week 7. You know, that game right after the Ravens beat the Chargers 34-6 in one of their only convincing performances of 2021.

Burrow stepped things up into historic company on Sunday with 525 yards and four touchdowns in an easy 41-21 win. Burrow’s 525 yards are the fourth most in a game in NFL history. He’s the first quarterback to throw for 400 yards twice against the same team in a season, and his 941 combined yards in two games are a new record against a team in a season.

Baltimore defensive coordinator Wink Martindale said coming into the game that Burrow isn’t ready for a gold jacket, but he’ll be ready in record time if he got to play this Baltimore defense every week. The Bengals have displayed their excellent trio of wide receivers against the Ravens this season. Tee Higgins had the monster game this time with 194 yards and two touchdowns.

Johnson was more than respectable for Baltimore, his 13th NFL team (and not his first stint there), with a 300-yard game. But the Ravens never could slow down the Bengals. Even after making it 34-21 in the fourth quarter, the Ravens watched Burrow go 8-for-8 on a 78-yard touchdown drive.

A game like this completely justifies why Burrow was the No. 1 pick in the draft. The Bengals are 4-0 against the Ravens and Steelers this year with every win by double digits. This is why they should be favored to win the division now, but a huge test looms with the Chiefs coming to town on an eight-game winning streak. If Burrow can outduel Mahomes in that one, who is to say they can’t do it again in the playoffs next month?

But let’s not get ahead of ourselves. If you told me before the season that Burrow would throw for 400 yards twice on Baltimore, I’d say that’s crazy. If you told me Derek Carr and Carson Wentz also had 400-yard games against the Ravens, I’d say, “damn, they’ve really fallen off a cliff defensively in Baltimore.” That does put it into better perspective.

Success in the NFL is all about stacking. Stacking first downs, stacking scoring drives, and stacking wins. This game becomes a footnote for Burrow, much like Matt Schaub’s 527-yard game, if he follows it up with a dud against the Chiefs and gets swept by the Browns to lose the division title.

But let’s see if this one could be a launching point for this team to do something great this year.

Steelers at Chiefs: The Standard Is 8-8-1

Ever since the Steelers settled for a tie with the winless Lions, I saw a tough schedule and a likely march to 8-8-1 that would mean no playoffs, but we’ll still have to hear “Mike Tomlin has never had a losing season.”

I still think that’s likely with the Steelers (7-7-1) in position to rebound from another ugly game to win at home on Monday Night Football against Cleveland in what should be Ben Roethlisberger’s last home game. Hell, the AFC North is still up for grabs for all four teams, but let’s not get crazy. This Pittsburgh team does not deserve the postseason and the six games since the Detroit tie show why.

This team does not show up for games anymore. No touchdowns in the first half of the last five games, something that hasn’t been done in Pittsburgh since 1940. In Weeks 5-14, Roethlisberger actually figured out how to be effective again. But in the last two weeks, the hopeless passes well short of the sticks that plagued the offense in its 1-3 start have returned with a fury and the offense has suffered as a result. While the offense starts games so badly, the defense is also sinking to some of its lowest levels in franchise history. It’s a miracle T.J. Watt has as many sacks as he does when he seems to pull up injured every third drive.

Yet, the Chiefs played this game without superstar tight end Travis Kelce, without kicker Harrison Butker (the backup cost them four points), and Tyreek Hill only had 19 yards on two targets. Running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire also left after nine carries with a collarbone injury. You would think the Steelers had a fighting chance under those circumstances, but the game was over before halftime again when the Chiefs led 23-0.

Patrick Mahomes was 23-of-30 for 258 yards and three touchdowns, and the numbers could have been even better if Josh Gordon or Byron Pringle had better hands on a couple of plays. Pringle stepped up with 75 yards and two touchdowns as the Chiefs mostly did whatever they wanted on offense before calling off the dogs early as the Steelers had no fight this time.

This is the fifth time in a calendar year I thought I saw the worst half of football from the Steelers in the Roethlisberger era. The first was the start in Cincinnati on Monday Night Football last December. Then came the 28-0 deficit in the first quarter of the playoff game against Cleveland. Definitely the worst first quarter by a team in NFL playoff history. Then they were down 31-3 in Cincinnati at halftime this year after a Roethlisberger pick-six. Two weeks later, the Vikings were up 23-0 with Dalvin Cook looking like he could run for 400 yards, mostly untouched. Now this one is a contender.

Pittsburgh has trailed by at least 17 points before the fourth quarter in nine of their last 19 games, which is about a calendar year. This is something that only happened nine times in Roethlisberger’s first 143 starts, a period that spanned 10 seasons (2004-2013).

This has been a disastrous stretch of ugly football by the Steelers in all phases. The idea that the 39-year-old quarterback retiring is going to solve things is laughable. At some point, people need to catch on that Tomlin and his staff are to blame for the constant mistakes and lack of adjustments.

But these Chiefs are scary again. While other teams peaked early and faded fast, Kansas City fixed its defense, and the offense has adjusted to the way defenses are playing them and have cut down the turnovers. They scored 48 points on the Raiders with Kelce having 27 yards. They scored 34 points on the Chargers with Kelce and Hill going off for monster games. Now they score a conservative 36 in this one with those two combining for 19 yards as Mahomes got only his second data point in a game without his tight end.

The Chiefs are the team to beat again. I’m not even sure it matters if the Titans get the No. 1 seed. But with the way the Chiefs are playing, they have a very good shot to win in Cincinnati and claim home-field advantage again.

Bills at Patriots: Everything In Its Right Place

If these teams had to play a best-of-seven series in normal weather conditions, I think Buffalo wins the series in five games. When the conditions made it easier for Buffalo to throw and necessary for the Patriots to throw more than three times, the talent disparity in these teams showed up.

The glaring difference is at quarterback, which is why the Bills had been favored to win the AFC East they finally lead again after this 33-21 win. Josh Allen was able to go on the road and throw 47 passes without taking a sack. He also led the team with 64 rushing yards and the Bills never punted. Allen’s game marks the 57th time a quarterback has thrown at least 45 passes against Bill Belichick’s Patriots since 2000. It is the first time that quarterback did not take a sack or throw an interception, though he sure did try to do the latter. That’s just Allen’s style, and today it worked out well as he finished enough drives with touchdowns.

Even though Damien Harris returned from his hamstring injury to rush for 103 yards and three touchdowns, the Patriots only got 145 yards passing out of rookie Mac Jones. Isaiah McKenzie had 125 yards receiving for the Bills to nearly match Jones’ whole passing output. The inevitable Cole Beasley COVID situation may have been a blessing in disguise as McKenzie stepped up with 11 catches (one touchdown) on 12 targets. He had seven catches for 38 yards on the season coming into Sunday, so no one took advantage of the Beasley opportunity better than McKenzie. Gabriel Davis was also out, so maybe the Bills have found a new wrinkle to use here.

But even when the Patriots drew to within 20-14 and 26-21, Allen was able to lead long touchdown drives that put the game out of reach. This is one of the most impressive wins the Bills have had in the Sean McDermott era. No more slip-ups at home against the Falcons and Jets, and the Bills should be able to win this division at 11-6.

As adaptable as the Patriots are with weekly game plans, the talent limitations of the roster and inexperience at quarterback still leave them at a disadvantage in games against teams like the Bills, Buccaneers, and Cowboys.

We could still see a rubber match here in the wild card round. But unless Belichick can figure out how to control the weather, I like the Bills in that one too.

Chargers at Texans: They’re Going to Ruin Herbert Too

One of the more potentially crushing losses of this season just happened to the Chargers, a 10.5-point favorite in Houston. The Chargers were without Austin Ekeler and Mike Williams, but that shouldn’t have stopped them from putting up numbers in Houston. The problem is the defense, without Joey Bosa and Derwin James, couldn’t stop Davis Mills and Rex Burkhead from putting up 34 points on eight drives.

Justin Herbert made his 30th start and it’s already the 18th time the Chargers allowed at least 27 points, tying Mike Glennon for the most such games in a quarterback’s first 30 starts since 2001.

It may have been okay if the Chargers stopped the bleeding at 27 points. Justin Jackson had a big fumble at midfield in the fourth quarter with the Chargers down 24-15. Funny how you won’t see that in the highlight like you will Herbert’s pick-six in desperation mode down 34-23 after the two-minute warning. But Jackson made up for his mistake with another touchdown and a two-point conversion made it 27-23 with 5:50 left. Plenty of time for the Chargers to get the ball back and win.

But that’s when you count on your defense to make a stand. The Chargers folded and allowed a 72-yard touchdown drive that all but sealed it at 34-23. Herbert came through with the pick-six and meaningless touchdown pass to produce the 41-29 final. It puts the Chargers at 8-7 and the playoffs in doubt again.

This was practically a cover version of your typical Philip Rivers/Anthony Lynn (or Mike McCoy) upset loss. We thought Herbert and Brandon Staley were above that, but the spread was likely far too generous for a team coming off a crushing loss to the Chiefs and not having Ekeler/Williams/Bosa/James available. Plus, Mills has actually done a respectable job on a lousy roster when he’s not making his first start on short notice or playing in the rain in Buffalo.

Washington at Cowboys: The NFC East Is a Ponzi Scheme I

“Joyless suckfest” is the phrase I’ve used to describe the Washington football franchise.

They were in rare form on Sunday night after falling behind 42-7 at halftime in Dallas. It’s another masterpiece to add to defensive coordinator Jack Del Rio’s legacy as Dak Prescott threw for 322 yards and four touchdowns in the first half. You think Joe Burrow threw for a lot of yards on Sunday? The Cowboys could have broken Norm Van Brocklin’s record if there was any need to run another play in the second half.

Given how much the Dallas offense struggled in the first Washington game as well as some other recent games, this was an impressive showing. Throw in that turnover-heavy defense and this could be a team that rides this wave to a Super Bowl. Chiefs vs. Cowboys was my Super Bowl pick a season ago.

Giants at Eagles: The NFC East Is a Ponzi Scheme II

After a 3-3 first half, it looked like Jalen Hurts was going to repeat his career-worst game against the Giants with another stinker as the teams seemed to be playing a different sport than the rest of the league. But the Eagles got it together and cruised to a 34-10 win.

Mike Glennon came off the bench to have a historic performance: 17-of-27 for 93 yards and a pick-six.

Incredibly, Glennon wasn’t the worst quarterback in the game. Jake Fromm made his first start and finished 6-of-17 for 25 yards with a pick and two sacks. Fromm is the first quarterback to start a game, throw at least 15 passes, and finish with fewer than 25 yards since Nathan Peterman did it in 2018. Eli Manning (2004) and Joe Flacco (2017) have done this before too, but something tells me Fromm will be much closer to the career of Peterman than those two.

The NFC East is a Ponzi scheme, and we must prosecute the guilty.

Rams at Vikings: Stafford Thought He Was a Lion Again

Don’t let that 30-23 final or the fact that Cooper Kupp and Justin Jefferson both went over 100 yards fool you. What should have been an efficient, fun shootout was a mess of a game that saw the Rams lead wire to wire; the first time all year the Vikings didn’t lead by at least six points in a game. There was even a punt return touchdown by the Rams, and Matthew Stafford threw three picks, some uglier than others. It was like Stafford thought a 1 PM game in Minnesota on FOX meant he was a Lion all over again.

But Kupp was awesome again and really helped the Rams stay out of a dramatic ending. The Vikings were 2-of-12 on third down and couldn’t put together a long touchdown drive until the fourth quarter when they were down 27-13.

One Kupp touchdown would have made my (gambling) day, but alas, I cannot experience joy in this 2021 season. Speaking of which…

Buccaneers at Panthers: First Division Title Since 2007

Only Tom Brady can get the MSM to use the line “he’s throwing to receivers he just met!” in Week 16 during a season where teams are trotting out literal nobodies and street free agents due to COVID and injuries. But sure, what a courageous effort to get a 32-6 win over a bad Carolina team while only having Antonio Brown (101 yards in his return), Rob Gronkowski, two running backs combining for 135 yards and two touchdowns behind a top-tier offensive line, and an uncovered Cameron Brate for Brady’s only touchdown pass of the game.

That’s why he’s the GOAT.

Broncos at Raiders: Just Like You Imagined (Not)

In a battle of 7-7 teams, the Raiders prevailed 17-13 despite losing the turnover battle 3-0. Drew Lock did not throw an interception, but Denver was 1-of-10 on third down, had 158 yards of offense, the running backs carried 14 times for 8 yards, and the only touchdown “drive” was a 1-yard plunge after Derek Carr fumbled before halftime.

Teams that allow fewer than 20 points and win the turnover margin by three win 96% of NFL games, so thanks for screwing that up, Denver. At least you didn’t spoil the narrative that Carr needs carried to win games in this league.

Bears at Seahawks: Sweet, Painful Regression

Remember all those warnings about the Seahawks sustaining their unsustainable record in close games? Well, Seattle is now 0-7 at game-winning drive opportunities this season after blowing a 24-17 lead to the Bears in the snow. Russell Wilson took a 13-yard sack that led to a 39-yard field goal being missed that likely would have iced it. A holding penalty and bad play calls also led to the Bears getting the ball again with 2:56 left.

Nick Foles brought the full BDN energy for the ensuing touchdown drive, and got an amazing catch on the two-point conversion with 1:01 left to take a 25-24 lead. I’d normally never advise going for it with that much time, but this was a battle of 4-5 win teams the day after Christmas. Just get it over with as quickly as possible.

Seattle went four-and-out after a penalty-heavy drive. The Wilson-Carroll era is going out sad but look which active quarterback is now .500 in GWD opportunities.

Lions at Falcons: Boyle Foiled

Just when it looked like the Falcons were going to blow another one to the Lions after a Russell Gage fumble, the defense stepped up and intercepted Tim Boyle on a first-and-goal to secure the win, keeping Atlanta (7-8) alive for the playoffs.

Say what you want about Jared Goff, who was out with COVID, but the Lions likely beat Cleveland and win this game if he was available. The Lions may be 2-12-1, but I think they’re better than the other sub-five win teams this year (Jets, Giants, Jaguars, Texans).

As for the Falcons this season, they are now 4-3 at game-winning drive opportunities, 5-3 in close games, and they got their second defensive hold today while only blowing one fourth-quarter lead (Washington in Week 4). And yet, this team has gotten its ass kicked six times this season and will have a shot at the worst scoring differential (currently minus-122) for a 7-win team in NFL history. The 2011 Chiefs finished 7-9 at minus-126 points.

Keep in mind that it was just last year that Atlanta had the best scoring differential in NFL history for a team that finished 4-12 or worse at minus-18 points.

Jaguars at Jets: Wilson’s One Shining Moment

All things considered, this year’s Toilet Bowl wasn’t that bad outside of an unfortunate Achilles injury for James Robinson. Neither of the rookie quarterbacks threw an interception, there was a 102-yard kick return touchdown, and it came down to the wire where the Jaguars of course botched things from the goal line in a 26-21 loss.

But once you saw Zach Wilson scramble for a 52-yard touchdown on a third-and-5, you knew he was going to have a comically high QBR at ESPN. He finished at 92.4, the highest in Week 16 despite another subpar passing performance. But the run was great and it sure was more memorable than anything Trevor Lawrence has done this year. So much like Sam Darnold on a long touchdown run against the Broncos, Wilson now has that one shining moment in his Jets career.

Will there ever be a second?

Next week: If Chiefs-Bengals could be half as good as 2005 Colts-Bengals, I’d be satisfied. That’s by far the big one of the day after Rams-Ravens, Vikings-Packers, and Browns-Steelers have all lost their luster.  

NFL Stat Oddity: Week 17

It’s over. The NFL was able to complete the first – and hopefully last – pandemic regular season on Sunday. Is it asterisk worthy? There are definitely some fishy, eye-popping numbers in a season with historic offensive production, but more on that later this week. As for an asterisk, I guess we’ll see what kind of postseason we get as the virus continues to mutate and increase in spread. However, only a couple of the 256 games this season were a total sham, including a Ravens-Steelers game that might have had much larger implications if it was played at a later date like next week.

Then again, the league greatly weakened the No. 2 seed with the new playoff format, and home-field advantage has never meant less than it does right now.

I am nervous and excited as hell at the same time about where things are headed, which is the perfect summary of how I feel about 2021 in general. But before we move onto the playoffs, let’s recap how things finished around the eight divisions in Week 17.

Previous weeks in Stat Oddity:

AFC South: King Henry Reigns Supreme

The best drama of the day came from the AFC South. Even though the Titans were not in any danger of missing the playoffs after Miami lost, the division title was still up for grabs as Deshaun Watson made the Titans work hard for a win while the Colts teased Jacksonville in a 28-14 final that was stuck on 20-14 for far too long. Seriously, the Colts were up 20-0 and almost blew this one to Mike Glennon. I’m a bit concerned about this team, but it’s not like I expect them to have a huge lead in Buffalo on Saturday. They are going to have to be sharper than the last two weeks. Just getting by a Jacksonville team that lost 15 straight is not going to impress anyone, but crashing the Buffalo parade early sure would.

So basically, the two good teams beat the two shitty teams with Derrick Henry (250 yards) and Jonathan Taylor (253 yards) running wild. Performances of 250 rushing yards are rare, but we had two on the same day from the same division. They are the 13th and 14th such games since 1950. The Titans are the first offense in NFL history to have a 250-yard rusher and a 150-yard receiver (A.J. Brown) in the same game. It was also a historic game in that Brandin Cooks had 166 receiving yards for Houston.

The big-time players showed up in this one, but it was Brown’s 52-yard catch that set up the game-winning field goal with no time left. That is how you get into game-winning field goal range in eight seconds. It was the most fitting way for the Titans to win the division in a season where Ryan Tannehill has led the most fourth-quarter comebacks (five) and game-winning drives (six) in the league.

Henry needed 223 rushing yards to get to 2,000 on the season and he got 250. This offense is absurdly great at times and I cannot wait to see this matchup with Baltimore, a playoff rematch from a year ago that this season definitely needs.

NFC East Total Landscaping Division Champions: The Team with No Name

We did not make history with a 6-10 division winner, but the NFC East sure did try its damnedest on Sunday to deliver.

First up was Dallas at the Giants, a team the Cowboys had a seven-game winning streak against and usually score 30+ points on. Unfortunately, Andy Dalton must have gotten the memo that this was a de facto playoff game that his team could not lose or they would be eliminated from the division race. In true January Andy Dalton fashion, he finished with no touchdown passes, a crucial interception in the final two minutes, and the Cowboys lost 23-19. Dalton was not protected well and took six sacks, including a big one two plays before his interception in the end zone. Wayne Gallman then fumbled for the Giants, but saved his ass by recovering it to run out the clock on Dallas’ season.

So Jason Garrett, the Giants’ offensive coordinator, gets the last laugh for 2020 as this was the game that sent the Cowboys home.

Over the last two seasons, Dallas is 0-16 when not scoring at least 30 points and 14-2 when scoring 30 or more points. There has never been a split like that in NFL history over multiple seasons. Teams who don’t score 30 points win about 36% of their games since 2019. The Cowboys’ 14 straight wins with at least 30 points in each is the longest such streak in NFL history. This team simply cannot win without scoring a lot of points.

Does that really change even if Dak Prescott is back healthy in 2021? No, more changes need to happen too. This roster does not work.

Alas, the Giants did not turn this win into a division title after the Washington Football Team was able to squeeze out a 20-14 stinker in Philadelphia on Sunday night. The second half, which only produced a Washington field goal on a 1-yard drive, was one of the worst halves of football I was subjected to all season. Doug Pederson basically threw in the towel by benching starter Jalen Hurts for backup Nate Sudfeld for the whole fourth quarter of a one-score game. It was shameless tanking. If he’s going to play a bad quarterback with no future in Philadelphia, he could have just started Carson Wentz.

Alex Smith had a lot of rough moments and was again carried by the defense to a victory and home playoff game next week. For as much as people like the courageous stories behind Ron Rivera’s cancer battle and Smith’s rehab, this team is one of the worst to watch play football this year. Now we have to see them host Tampa Bay on Saturday night.

Just the thought of a Washington-Tampa Bay game gives me PTSD to the 2005 NFC Wild Card matchup, which had to be one of the worst playoff games ever played. Mark Brunell got a win for Washington in a game where he completed 7-of-15 passes for 41 yards and an interception. I watched the game in freezing cold temperatures as the furnace gave out that weekend. The only thing that could have made the viewing experience worse was if Tom Brady was playing the game and the announcers were up his ass over it.

That awaits us Saturday night. At least I should have heat this time. But then again, if Brunell can win a playoff game doing that and Brady could lose one to Joe Flacco (2009 Ravens) where he threw for 34 yards and a pick, then anything is possible this week.

NFC South: Eat the Rich

In another case of the top of the division making short work of the bottom-feeders, the Saints and Buccaneers cruised to wire-to-wire victories over the Panthers and Falcons on Sunday. Not even losing Alvin Kamara and the running back room to COVID could stop the Saints from throwing in Ty Montgomery and getting 105 yards on the ground out of him in a 33-7 win, reportedly the final regular season game in Drew Brees’ stellar career. Brees finished with three more touchdown passes and enough completions (needed eight) to Emmanuel Sanders to earn the receiver a $500,000 bonus.

Tampa Bay showed even more gall in getting to milestone numbers for its loaded receiving corps, but that came at a price when Mike Evans dropped a touchdown and hyperextended his knee after hitting his benchmark. His status for the playoffs is uncertain but he appears to have dodged the worst of it. Evans is the first receiver in NFL history to have 1,000 yards receiving in his first seven seasons, but this was the first time he ever needed all 16 games to cross the mark.

You might think the Evans scare would knock some sense into them, but that didn’t stop Tom Brady and Antonio Brown from connecting three more times with the game well decided – up 44-27 at the 2:14 mark – just so the receiver could get a $250,000 bonus. It is the only time in the last 20 years where an offense started a drive pass-pass-pass with a three-score lead in the final four minutes.

Maybe the Buccaneers would have done better than a fifth seed in a weak conference had this connection been stronger against better opponents. As it stands, the Jets (two) have more wins against 2020 playoff teams than the Buccaneers (one).

Now Brady will start a playoff run on the road for the first time in his career, and he gets to do it in a crowd-less stadium for a nameless 7-9 Washington team that came out of the worst division since the merger.

Play us off, Rod…

AFC East: The Right Stuff

The Buffalo Bills (13-3) completed their best season since the Super Bowl years by going 6-0 against the AFC East and eliminating Miami from the playoffs in a 56-26 rout. Josh Allen and other starters could have rested the whole game, but they played a half and put up a commanding 28-6 lead before every other phase of the team stepped up with four more touchdowns in the second half.

We knew one of the five 10-5 teams in the AFC was going to be kept out of the playoffs, and Miami was the only underdog against the spread. Sure enough, the Bills got the dominant win and Miami’s season is over. It’s fitting really because Miami was the weakest contender of the five. The switch to Tua Tagovailoa at quarterback did not serve the Dolphins well enough this season, and I think this will cost Brian Flores the Coach of the Year award. Ryan Fitzpatrick was out this week with COVID, but maybe things would have gone differently had he remained the starter. Tua really struggled on Sunday with 58 pass attempts and three interceptions, even after Buffalo was playing backups.

The Bills are clearly in the best shape in this division. The Patriots pulled away from the Jets in the fourth quarter in a 28-14 win as Cam Newton had one of his few good passing games of the year. Is it his last game with the team? Pretty likely, and certainly it’s the last game for Adam Gase in New York. Now if only this team didn’t bother to beat the Rams and Browns, they would be 0-16 and have their choice of head coach and the attractive option of drafting Trevor Lawrence with the top pick. But the Jets are almost never on the right side of history.

NFC West: Goff Clap

Russell Wilson may have saved his best fourth-quarter comeback of 2020 for Week 17, rallying the Seahawks from a 10-point deficit to a 26-23 win against the 49ers, who were very competitive in the final weeks of the season. But go figure, another blown lead and close loss for the Kyle Shanahan era.

Meanwhile, the closest thing to a de facto playoff game between both teams was my expected shitshow between the Rams and Cardinals. It ended up being the eighth 18-7 final score in NFL history, which is a surprisingly high number to me. More surprising than the final was the leading passer for each team: Chris Streveler for the Cardinals and John Wolford for the Rams. When I saw that Streveler threw an early touchdown pass, my first thought was the Cardinals tried a fake field goal and a holder or random player threw the score. I never heard of this player in my life, and Wolford was another unknown to me coming into this one.

We knew coming in that Jared Goff was out with an injured thumb and Kyler Murray was banged up. Murray started and finished, but for a large chunk in between it was Streveler at quarterback. Go figure, the game’s only offensive touchdown was a 14-yard drive set up by Wolford’s interception. The Rams came back thanks to a safety and pick-six.

The quarterbacks in this game were so jacked up that even Boomer Esiason replaced Tony Romo in the booth for CBS due to COVID. Esiason seemed more impressed than anyone with Wolford’s play. I guess given the circumstances and lack of experience, he was okay? He led the team in rushing with 56 yards. He threw for 231 yards and only took two sacks. It was a more mobile Jared Goff-type performance on one of his basic bitch days. In the end, the Rams scored three field goals on 10 drives and were fortunate that the Cardinals were in worse offensive shape than they were. Larry Fitzgerald didn’t even play in what could have been his final game due to injury, and now the Cardinals (8-8) are out of the playoffs.

Sean McVay certainly owns the Cardinals, but we’ll see if he can find his success again with the Seahawks in a third meeting next week. After getting so much praise early in the season, this division really limped across the finish line to get two teams in the tournament.

AFC North: Browns vs. Big Brother

The Steelers-Browns game went about as I expected. Even though the Steelers were missing most of their best players, they weren’t just going to lay down and let Cleveland get a big win to make the playoffs and finish 11-5 for the first time since 1994. Mason Rudolph showed some of his usual lack of pocket awareness, but he converted several third downs and tested the Browns deep with success. Even after Pittsburgh fell behind 24-9 a play into the fourth quarter, Rudolph led two touchdown drives, but missed on the game-tying two-point conversion. The Browns got the one first down needed to run out the clock and secure the 24-22 win.

These teams will meet on Sunday night, meaning it will be the Steelers the Browns have to get past in the playoffs for the third straight postseason after losing to their hated rival in 1994 and 2002. I may end up having to write two previews for this game, so I’ll save my thoughts for later this week, but I like the prospects of the Steelers in that game with their starters back.

Then there is Baltimore, the scariest 11-5 team in the league with the best scoring differential (+165) in football again. How absurd were the Ravens against Cincinnati? They were up 38-3 going into the fourth quarter and basically called off the dogs, finishing with 404 rushing yards, the most in the NFL since the 2000 Bengals had 407 against Denver.

Baltimore could be the most fascinating story this postseason as a legit contender to win it all, or it could flame out again in the playoffs and to the Titans again.

NFC North: Bears Back In

The Chicago Bears had a chance to enter the playoffs on a four-game winning streak with confidence if they could knock off the Packers and prove they haven’t just been scoring on bad teams lately.

They flopped again, going down in a 35-16 loss and only backing into the playoffs at 8-8 because of Arizona’s collapse. The 19 and 16-point losses to the Packers this year are Chicago’s worst margins of defeat in 2020. However, this one felt closer than last time despite the final score. The Bears were down 21-16 and 25 yards away from the end zone in the fourth quarter before failing on a 4th-and-1 pass. With nine minutes left, the Bears had their second dropped interception of the day thrown by Aaron Rodgers. More than five minutes later, the Packers were back in the end zone and then added a fifth touchdown after Chicago’s second turnover of the game.

Once again, the Chicago defense could not create splash plays against the Packers, allowing five touchdowns on seven drives. Meanwhile, the Chicago offense was 5-of-6 on fourth down, but that one miss in the fourth quarter hurt. Chicago actually played into Green Bay’s hands a bit with a game that featured very few big plays despite each team having a 50-yard pass play. Green Bay’s second-longest gain of the day was only 17 yards. The Bears only had two plays gain more than 14 yards. Chicago tried to dink and dunk with Trubisky on these long drives that also featured a lot of David Montgomery runs (3.1 YPC on 22 carries), which helped shrink the game, but it also led to too many fourth downs and not enough touchdowns. The Bears were 1-for-5 at scoring in the red zone.

I really hope the Bears do not end Drew Brees’ career in New Orleans next weekend, especially since it sets up another Bears-Packers game. We don’t need a third one of these. The Bears just do not have it against their hated rival, no matter what type of game they play against them.

In the Hollow Shootout of the Week, the Vikings took care of Detroit 37-35. The 2020 Lions allowed 519 points, the second-highest mark in NFL history between the 1981 Colts (533) and the 2008 Lions (517) of 0-16 fame.

Kirk Cousins was 0-22 as a starter in his career when his team allowed more than 30 points, but he has a win now. We’ll have to see if the final snap of Matthew Stafford’s Detroit career is an inaccurate miss on a game-tying two-point conversion attempt before his defense failed to get the ball back one more time.

AFC West: Boo-Urns

The least eventful division on Sunday was the AFC West with the Broncos and Raiders having an old-fashioned shootout that was ultimately meaningless. The fact that Denver had field goals of 70 and 63 yards (to win the game) blocked might tell you all you need to know about that one, a 32-31 comeback win by the Raiders to finish 8-8.

Then there’s the Chargers-Chiefs finale, won 38-21 by the Chargers. This one personally ruined my Sunday, and it’s not just because we didn’t get to see Patrick Mahomes or any of the interesting players on the Chiefs play. It’s because I put way too much trust in the Chargers to fill out their BINGO card with a performance that shouldn’t have blown away the Chiefs even if they were playing heavy backups. I lost quite the potential winnings on this game.

I was worried this meaningless game for the Chiefs would end all of their best streaks, but it only ended up taking out the record one of 60 straight games without losing by more than eight points. I guess we’ll have to put that one in the context of Mahomes from now on.

By resting, Mahomes missed out on leading the league in passing yards, joining Drew Brees as the only quarterbacks with multiple seasons of 5,000 yards/40 TD passes, and becoming the first quarterback to win 18 games and a championship in the same season. Achieving that in a 17 or 18-game regular season wouldn’t be as impressive, as this was the end of the 16-game era. The 2020 Chiefs should still have the record for most yards per drive at over 43.

Alas, the rest is for the postseason where the Chiefs have their ultimate goal still in front of them. It is just a bit of a bummer to see a throwaway game like this one. It was not a good showing by the Chiefs, and neither was the 17-14 escape win over the Falcons last week. Now they will go on a bye while these other AFC teams are in playoff mode for a few weeks now and competing this weekend in the wild card.

If the Steelers take care of the Browns and the Bills take care of the Colts, the Chiefs could have to start this title defense with a Tennessee or Baltimore team looking to punch them in the mouth and avenge past losses. That is a tough, physical draw after weeks off. I know Mahomes is different and Andy Reid has the great bye success, but these playoffs are guaranteed to be a bigger challenge than a year ago when the Chiefs still had to rally from double-digit deficits in all three playoff games.

My Preseason Predictions

Finally, something I am always quick to recap is seeing how my preseason predictions for team final records fared. I knew this would be a challenging season with COVID, a lot of quarterback movement, and the lack of a real offseason. My pick of Dallas making the Super Bowl in the NFC certainly did not pan out, and that was probably going to be the case even if Dak Prescott stayed healthy. However, I’m still on track for the Chiefs repeating, but let’s see how I did with all 32 teams.

As it turns out, this was my worst year of predicting since 2013, but not by much. I was off by an average of 2.78 wins. I have had some years before where I was off by 2.75 wins. A good year is 2.1 or 2.2. The 2019 season was one where I was only off by 2.16 wins. At least I was not off by more than six games for anyone this time.

I did not foresee Miami and Cleveland having this much success this season, which is why I think Kevin Stefanski should win the Coach of the Year award. I also obviously was disappointed by the Vikings and Texans in addition to the Cowboys. Even just those four very winnable division games the Texans had against the Colts and Titans could have made a huge difference for my predictions (2.78 down to 2.53).

But we’ll get into the close game summary of 2020 very soon. That is where teams like Houston, Atlanta, and Philadelphia flopped the hardest. Also, at least I can say I nailed Tampa Bay’s record. Now if only I could nail their postseason prediction later this week, but that is also to come.

NFL Week 17 Predictions: Rest vs. Rust Edition

In the NFL, sometimes Week 17 is great drama, and sometimes you just want to get it over with as quickly as possible to get to the playoffs.

Last year was more on the drama side with the Patriots getting upset by the Dolphins to lose out on a bye and the No. 2 seed to the Chiefs, who rode that to a Super Bowl win. The regular season concluded with a good game between the 49ers and Seahawks that came down to the 1-yard line to decide the NFC’s No. 1 seed.

This year looks to be more on the get it over with side of things, especially during a pandemic and another situation (Saints’ running backs) where a team’s whole position group is being wiped out by protocol.

Despite half of the 14 playoff spots still not clinched, this Sunday lacks that game for both teams that has a “win or go home” pressure to it. Plus with the new system only giving out one bye week in a year where being at home doesn’t even matter, there’s not much of an incentive to improve your seeding if you’re Pittsburgh or Buffalo.

But let’s sort this out quickly. I wrote previews already for Ravens-Bengals, Steelers-Browns, and Vikings-Lions.

AFC Picture

It is shocking to think that the AFC could have eight teams with at least 11 wins if all five of the 10-5 teams win on Sunday. Four of the 10-5 teams are favored by at least a touchdown too with only Miami (+2) at Buffalo as an underdog.

Chances are at least one of them will slip up and lose, but which one?

The Colts should be able to avenge that Week 1 loss to the Jaguars with a win. The Ravens should feel good about the way they’ve been rolling, only needing to beat the Bengals (no 2017, 4th-and-12 vs. Andy Dalton repeat). Deshaun Watson absolutely could give the Titans a game, but I think Tennessee scores a lot there. Still, that might be the best game of the day for SGP.

Pittsburgh is basically throwing in the towel on Week 17 and the No. 2 seed, inviting the Browns to suffer an embarrassing loss to Mason Rudolph. The Steelers also won’t have Cameron Heyward, T.J. Watt, and Maurkice Pouncey for rest, or Joe Haden and Eric Ebron for COVID reasons. This sets up nicely for a Cleveland win, but pure hell if they lose. I still think the Steelers can cover this one as they rarely lose by more than 10 points and will want to make this as hard as possible on Cleveland even without their best players active.

MIA-BUF is an interesting one because how much Josh Allen will we see? Cole Beasley is already out for the Bills, who really don’t need this one like Miami does. If the Dolphins need a comeback, they can’t go to the bench for Ryan Fitzpatrick either because he has COVID. So it’s all on Tua at QB, but he may only need to outscore Matt Barkley for a half or so. Again, not a game I’d want to bet any money on.

Finally, the Chiefs have the No. 1 seed wrapped up and won’t play Patrick Mahomes among several other starters. That makes the Chargers a 4.5 point favorite in Arrowhead and leaves a few great Chiefs streaks in jeopardy.

Yeah, I’m not a fan of Week 17 and I don’t think eliminating a bye was a good idea. That would have at the very least made the Steelers and Bills go all out tomorrow.

NFC Picture

I think the top three seeds (GB/NO/SEA) are all going to win, making Green Bay the coveted No. 1 this year. I however wouldn’t overlook the Saints dropping a game to the Panthers. Last time it was a 27-24 final and the Saints are down Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara. Plus, aren’t the Panthers due to at least win one close game? That should be the most interesting of the three games there.

I just don’t believe in Chicago or Mitchell Trubisky, though I will say the Bears at least beat Tampa Bay this year. And if beating the Lions, Falcons, Panthers, Texans, Vikings and Jaguars doesn’t impress you, well, that’s eight of Green Bay’s wins this season too.

The NFC East is still open to a 6-10 division winner if it’s the Giants, but I think Dallas takes that one to get to 7-9. Then it’s all about SNF and the no-name team against Philadelphia. It appears Alex Smith is starting, but that’s really a marginal improvement over the recently released Dwayne Haskins these days. Still, the Eagles are good for disappointment this year and Washington has been a tough opponent for them the last few years. So I guess based on my picks I still have Washington taking this one at 7-9 thanks to a sweep of Dallas this year.

And to think this could have been Dak Prescott’s division at 8-8…

That leaves probably the closest thing we have to a Week 17 de facto playoff game for both teams between the Rams and Cardinals. I hate betting on the Rams to begin with, but now we’re talking about unknown John Wolford starting at quarterback for an injured Jared Goff. Running back Cam Akers is also still out for the Rams. Arizona quarterback Kyler Murray was also banged up at the end of Week 16’s game, so this might not be an offensive showcase.

I’m going to trust my gut and go with Sean McVay in this one as he has owned the Cardinals in his career. If his system and mind are so great, then he should be able to get production out of Wolford in a big spot. The star defenders (Jalen Ramsey, Aaron Donald) need to show up too. The Rams are a 3-point underdog, but I just don’t trust Kliff Kingsbury, especially not after that brutal performance to the 49ers last Saturday.

NFL Week 17 Predictions

Here are the picks for every game:

During the week I’ll have Stat Oddity for Week 17, a close game summary of 2020, a look at the historic offensive marks achieved this season, and wild card previews. Maybe some other things if I’m feeling that energetic.