Tag: NFC North

NFL 2024 Week 18 Predictions: Feeling Minnesota Edition

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

The final weekend of the 2024 NFL regular season is here. I just took a peek at my preseason predictions for final records and they’re shaping up to be my worst ever, and the Minnesota Vikings are one of the biggest misses as I had them finishing 4-13. They’re a win away from going 15-2 and claiming the No. 1 seed with Sam Darnold having one of the greatest late-bloomer seasons ever, if not the greatest at the quarterback position.

But a lot of people probably made that mistake, right? It’s been a wild season with Washington also surprising people with its first 11-win season since 1991 behind rookie Jayden Daniels. The 49ers also repeated their 2020 “injury doom after a Super Bowl loss” season.

A lot to wrap up Sunday night when this thing is over and Game 272 is in the books.

This Week’s Articles

NFL Week 18 Predictions

The last week is always tricky as some teams could give a shit about the effort they’re going to put into this game, and for others, it’s literally the season on the line.

Like I said, some of these games mean little to nothing to these teams, so I’m only going to focus on the important ones here.

C:LE-BAL: All bets are off on Lamar’s MVP if he blows it as a 20-point favorite. That should go without saying. But I don’t expect Bailey Zappe to shock the world Saturday.

CIN-PIT: I wrote about this in my picks link above as I like the Steelers to win what might be their last win this season given their recent playoff flops. I think they know how to move the ball well against the Bengals and score points, and I believe in Cincy’s fatal flaws catching up to them with the season on the line. That means Joe Burrow taking sacks (please show up big for my DPOY futures bet, T.J. Watt) and the defense getting shredded. The Steelers are healthy after a long break from Christmas, so let’s see a better effort and send the Bengals home while likely clinching that No. 5 seed and a reasonable trip to Houston for the wild card.

BUF-NE: It doesn’t matter for the playoffs, but I’m going with New England in an upset win as it could satisfy two things for the Bills. After Josh Allen leaves the game after extending his consecutive starts streak, they can play like ass and lose big to the lowly Patriots to try bolstering his MVP case in another ridiculous fashion. But more importantly, don’t let the Patriots have control of the No. 1 pick in the draft and possibly land Travis Hunter as a weapon for Drake Maye. Lose this game to New England if you’re smart about the big picture in the AFC East.

NFC South: I’ll be shocked if the Bucs don’t come through and win against the awful Saints’ offense to win the NFC South.

KC-DEN: It sure looks like the Chiefs are not playing their ~12 best players or so in this game. You can’t bench everybody, but it’s going to be Carson Wentz and a slew of backups. Yet I’m still going to trust them to cover the spread and make it tough on Denver, which could be playing for its season if the Bengals win Saturday night. We’ll see but I think this game has some 2004 Steelers-Bills vibes to it.

MIA-NYJ: I don’t think this will be the last NFL game for Aaron Rodgers, but I do think he’s going to throw his 500th touchdown and get a win in what will be his last game for the Jets.

MIN-DET: The big one. 14-2 vs. 14-2. The Lions are +200 on the scoreboard and have had this incredible season, but I think the Vikings have the right stuff to win this game and earn the No. 1 seed. They have the defense that gets a takeaway every week, has held teams to 11/31 (35.5%) on 4th down to lead the league, and can get after Jared Goff like they did last time. I like the offense being able to score against this injury-ravaged defense that has allowed a lot of plays and points in recent weeks, and I think Darnold can get it done as he already has 5 GWDs this season.

It’s a little ballsy, but I’m feeling Minnesota in the Game of the Year that’s as much of a playoff game without being a literal playoff game. You either get a bye week and home-field advantage or you have to go on the road next week despite 14 wins. That’s crazy stuff. But I also think this is a fantastic trial run for Darnold for what real playoff games will be like. That’s why I still think this team has a shot to get to New Orleans even if they drop this game in a close one.

Maybe that’s a hint of where I’m going with my playoff picks this year, but let’s figure out these seeds and matchups before we get into that next week.

2024 NFL Stat Oddity: Week 7

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

I loved the NFL’s Week 7 schedule more than I probably loved the games themselves on Sunday. It wasn’t bad, and most of the top games delivered, but it definitely felt like a return to a lot of weak offense around the league.

 It’s also been oddly one-sided as just four games had a comeback opportunity going into Monday night’s double-header that should hopefully add to that total with Baltimore’s shaky closing abilities and the Chargers just generally being the Chargers.

But that’s a low number of close games despite four teams coming back from a 10-0 deficit to win (Jaguars, Lions, Colts, and Bills). The only fourth-quarter lead changes happened in the two NFC North games.

There were also many quarterback injuries in games, including the one that most people had no problem seeing. That doesn’t mean you wished for it, but you certainly aren’t going to shed a tear or think of it as a loss for the team.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Lions at Vikings: Game of the Week

With the 49ers falling apart, these NFC North games are turning into the biggest ones in the NFC this season, and Week 7 was one hell of a time to test out the Lions and Vikings. We got to see the Vikings after a bye week, and the Lions right after losing Aidan Hutchinson last week.

This 31-29 game managed to exceed the hype. The Lions failed on one of the worst fake punts you’ll ever see to start the game, then lost David Montgomery to an injury and trailed 10-0. Hard to start worse than that.

But Jared Goff completed his first 15 passes, Jahmyr Gibbs broke off a long touchdown run, and the Lions soon led 21-10 at halftime. I liked Detroit in this one because it already has two games of experience late last season against Brian Flores’ defense. They wouldn’t be as shocked by it as these other teams have been this year.

But that doesn’t mean Goff wasn’t under pressure often and had to carve up the blitz. He took 4 sacks and fumbled twice (neither lost) in the game, so it was a tough one. But he hung in there and completed 22-of-25 passes for 280 yards as he is playing as well as any quarterback right now.

Sam Darnold actually had some similar numbers in this game with 22-of-27 for 259 yards and 4 sacks. Justin Jefferson had another big game against the Lions, including a touchdown in the third quarter to make it 21-17.

But while Montgomery returned to the game, it wasn’t for the best. With 6:00 left, Montgomery lost the ball on a run and the Vikings scooped it up for a stunning 36-yard touchdown to take a 29-28 lead with 5:50 left. Huge miss on the 2-point conversion, however.

The Lions went three-and-out with Goff getting sacked on third down again. The Vikings could have ran out the clock on offense, but they too went three-and-out. Gibbs took over instead of Montgomery for the game-winning drive and delivered a huge moment with the drive’s first 34 yards. Amon-Ra St. Brown caught a 14-yard pass, and the Lions were in field goal range.

I know Dan Campbell is as aggressive as they come, but I didn’t love the conservative approach with conceding the long field goal. I’d want to get as close as possible for an unproven pro kicker in Jake Bates, the UFL standout. But from 44 yards away, Bates delivered on the biggest kick of his brief NFL career to put the Lions up 31-29.

Darnold had 15 seconds left at his own 30. He got the ball to midfield, and I’m not sure an illegal formation penalty on a spike with 1 second left (debatable) shouldn’t just be a game-ending penalty with a 10-second runoff. That felt fishy. But the Vikings had one last chance for a Hail Mary, and you never know with Jefferson down there. However, it ended in a fitting way as the Lions sacked Darnold on his ass to end the game and escape with the win.

In the end, the big plays by the Lions were too much for Minnesota to overcome. But I’m looking forward to the other NFC North clashes this year when the Packers get involved too.

Chiefs at 49ers: Super Bowl Rematch Sees These Teams Further Apart as Injuries Mount

To date, the only direct Super Bowl rematch was Dallas vs. Buffalo in 1992-93. With the way these teams are going, we won’t see another in February. Injuries are doing their damage, but the Chiefs remain the NFL’s last unbeaten at 6-0, winners of 12 straight, while the 49ers are flailing at 3-4 after this 28-18 loss at home despite being a 2.5-point favorite.

That means Patrick Mahomes continues to be the ultimate underdog with an 11-3 SU record, but this game was little about him. This was a showcase for the defense, and even if you acknowledge the injuries for the 49ers, they still had talent on that field and the system and mind of Kyle Shanahan calling plays. The Chiefs forced Brock Purdy into one of his roughest games in the NFL as he was intercepted three times, including a total headscratcher in the end zone in the fourth quarter when the 49ers trailed 21-12. Even if he wasn’t pressured as he threw it, that pass looked like it was going right to the defender either way.

Mahomes also had two interceptions in this game, but while he’s had some headscratchers this year, it’s hard to say he did wrong on a tipped pass at the line and a play where the receiver (Xavier Worthy) fell on his route. There were at least four Chiefs who slipped on Mahomes’ incompletions in the game.

But this is the value of the Chiefs in 2024. Even when the team is turning it over multiple times or doing something silly like a fake punt that failed miserably, they overcome it with their defense, and they still score a fair number of points. They scored 28 points in this one with three of those touchdown drives from long distance.

Mahomes’ best play was as a runner when it was a tight 14-12 game. He tightrope-walked the sideline and stayed in bounds for a 33-yard run that set up his first touchdown run since 2022 on a 4th-and-goal at the 1 to make it 21-12.

Still, it’s wild to see the injuries for these teams. Both starting running backs (Christian McCaffrey and Isiah Pacheco) were out. The Chiefs were already missing their top wideouts (Rashee Rice and Hollywood Brown), and then their new de-facto No. 1, JuJu Smith-Schuster, left the game early after aggravating his hamstring. The 49ers lost Deebo Samuel quickly to an illness, Brandon Aiyuk was knocked out with a potentially serious injury, and Jauan Jennings, who actually leads the team in receiving yards before this game, was already inactive. Just a mess.

But the Chiefs still found ways to score four touchdowns and actually were leading by 16 points before a San Francisco touchdown made it a 28-18 final. That final score by the Chiefs got them to 28 points, the first time they scored that much during this 12-game winning streak.

That just creates a new record, however. The Chiefs are the first team in NFL history to win 12 straight games without scoring more than 28 points in any of them. Their next opponent (Raiders) is the last team to beat them, but this season is beyond fucked if that ends up being their first loss in 2024.

It’s coming eventually with the way they’re playing, but they were still impressive enough in this game. Not everyone can do that to the 49ers, injuries or not.

Texans at Packers: My Preseason Hype Teams Played the Walk-Off FG Finish I Expected

I’ve been high on the Texans and Packers as “new powers” in the league since February really. I was looking forward to this one since we probably won’t get many games between Jordan Love and C.J. Stroud, but I was stunned at just how well Green Bay limited the Houston passing game.

The Packers have feasted on turnovers this year while still giving up their share of yards and points. But this was an impressive performance where they really held Stroud in check without a single takeaway. They held him to 86 passing yards on 21 throws, and they sacked him 4 times while flustering him all day. The Texans scored on a lot of short fields and couldn’t really sustain offense.

On the other side, Jordan Love had one of those mixed games where he made some “wow” throws, but he had a few more picks, and he couldn’t get some of his best receivers going against this pass defense.

But it was a close game as I expected. I picked the Texans to win because I trust Stroud more than Love in those moments. Sure enough, Stroud saved probably his best throw of the game for a late third down when the Texans were driving in a 21-19 game late. But the Packers had all of their timeouts, and the Texans failed to get the touchdown or a first down to run out the clock for their field goal. They had to settle for taking a 22-21 lead with 1:44 left.

A lead is a lead, but that’s not a very safe one with that much time left. However, I wanted to see how Love would fare here as we have seen him struggle to come up with a field goal in these moments. Think of last year in games like Atlanta, Denver, or San Francisco in the playoffs. He was only 2-8 at comeback opportunities before Sunday.

Also, the Packers have been going through kickers like crazy, so you had to wonder how newly signed Brandon McManus would do. I know him best from Denver, and he’s been an adequate enough kicker in his career.

But Love had to get him in range, and that didn’t prove to be a big problem this time. He marched the offense 44 yards in a hurry. McManus was left with a 45-yard kick to win it, and after an icing attempt, he delivered the goods for a 24-22 win. That’s a quality one for the Packers this year.

Jets at Steelers: Tomlin Knew

For the last six weeks, I’ve basically come on here and said that I’m not impressed with what Justin Fields is doing in the Pittsburgh offense. He looked a lot like the quarterback from Chicago in that he’s slow with his decisions, he rifles too many throws, doesn’t make the touch passes on time, he’s a magnet for sacks and fumbles, and he’s possibly the least clutch QB of the 21st century.

Yet, the NFL groupthink seemed to get stronger every week that Fields is now good, and the Steelers would be crazy to bench him for old Russell Wilson. They kept citing the 4-2 record, even though the Steelers had not won a game when the opponent scored more than 13 points all season. The offense, including Fields himself, had a lot of mediocre rankings as well. These were results you could certainly improve on with a quarterback of Wilson’s experience. He only was out because of his calf. He was going to be the Week 1 starter otherwise.

So, I was always hoping for Mike Tomlin to come to his senses and start Wilson, but I was skeptical he’d actually do it because of the team’s record. Yet, Tomlin had the balls this week to defy that national NFL groupthink and go with Wilson. People created silly stats like the “first 4-2 quarterback to get benched” when it’s not even the first time in Pittsburgh history. Joe Gilliam was benched for Terry Bradshaw in 1974 despite starting 4-1-1, a better record than 4-2. But I guess since it’s not exactly 4-2, they think their insignificant stat has meaning. Screw that.

I still liked the Jets to win the game Sunday night, but that’s because I had much higher expectations for Aaron Rodgers and that offense after a good showing (kicker aside) against Buffalo last week, and the addition of Davante Adams via trade. Sure enough, Rodgers threw his first pass to Rodgers, but the receiver couldn’t pull it in, and he finished with just 3 catches for 30 yards on 9 targets as Allen Lazard and Garrett Wilson looked better in that offense.

Well, Wilson was fine until the third quarter when he popped an easy catch into the air for an interception that was returned to the 1. There’s your game changer. Rodgers didn’t have a good game and especially not a good second half, but that second pick was not his fault at all. The Jets just have many issues.

As for Wilson, he no doubt got off to a bad start. After he attempted to kill Earthworm Jim on back-to-back plays, I thought he really did go The Full McNabb with 2011 Vikings vibes. Someone sign Christian Ponder.

But games are 60 minutes, and we know even in Russ’ prime he could start a game ugly. Before you knew it, he had as many passing yards at halftime as Fields had in half of his full games this season. Wilson throws with more touch, he gives his receivers more opportunities down the field, and he makes better and faster decisions with the ball than Fields. Did he get lucky on a few passes? Sure, but it was his first game in 10 months, and his first with Pittsburgh. Do you remember how Rodgers looked in his first games of the last two seasons with New York, or Tom Brady’s debut in Tampa Bay? It was worse than this.

Wilson did a very nice job, and he showed he was mobile enough to only take 1 sack on the night. He also didn’t throw any picks. Justin Fields has literally never had a start in the NFL where he threw no picks and didn’t take multiple sacks. Wilson did that in his first game with Pittsburgh. He also didn’t fumble like Fields did weekly. The running game also didn’t die with him in there as Najee Harris continues to look highly motivated these last two games. George Pickens also caught his first touchdown of the season.

Russ had a definite huge impact on the offense, and he feels more in control at the line than Fields ever did. He won’t run as fast as Fields, but he rarely needs to. That’s not the kind of quarterback play that’s going to take you far, and Tomlin understands that. I think benching Fields will prove to be one of his smartest moves in years.

The quarterback who actually looked too old and slow on Sunday night was Rodgers. Is he going to trade Wilson next after that dropped pass turned pick? They’re 2-5 and fading fast even in a weakened AFC.

But Sunday night was a great one for Tomlin and anyone who didn’t see what the fuss was with Fields all these weeks.

Titans at Bills: Box Score Blowout Doesn’t Tell the Story

The numbers are going to make this one look like a boring rout, a 34-10 blowout where Josh Allen threw for over 300 yards, Amari Cooper caught a touchdown in his team debut, and the Titans still struggled to score with Mason Rudolph starting for an injured Will Levis (AC joint).

Those things are all true, but this was a tough game for Buffalo deep into the third quarter. The Bills went three-and-out 3 times in the first quarter and fell behind 10-0. Cooper dropped his first target. Rudolph was outplaying Allen.

But the Titans really screwed themselves to start the second half when they went for a 4th-and-2 at their own 44 and Tony Pollard was stuffed for a big loss. Why would they do that with a 10-7 lead? The offense was not thriving to the point where you could trust them to convert and actually turn it into points.

The defense was playing well, and Buffalo was struggling on offense. This just gave them a huge boost as Allen took the field 41 yards away from the end zone and the drive ended with Cooper scoring. The Bills led the rest of the game. Terrible decision by the Titans to go for it.

The Bills padded some stats late with the game in hand, including a 16-yard touchdown run after the 2-minute warning. But the Titans had a shot for most of this game. Far from your normal 34-10 rout.

Seahawks at Falcons: Surprising Rout

These teams have played many close games, and you just expected that sort of finish in a passing fest between Geno Smith and Kirk Cousins. Actually, I thought it’d be a passing clinic with Geno facing a defense without a pass rush, but he moved around well and threw for 181 yards at halftime. I just didn’t expect him to barely finish the game with 200 yards as the run game and defense showed up for Seattle to finish the Falcons off in maybe their worst team performance of the season.

Just when you thought Cousins would make it a one-score game while trailing 24-14 in the fourth quarter, the Seahawks had the plot twist with a strip-sack and recovery for a touchdown to make it 31-14 with 12:4 6 left. Cousins threw another pick on the next drive, and we ended up seeing the first NFL completion of rookie Michael Penix’s career before this one ended 34-14.

No quarterback controversy in Atlanta (yet), but this one surprised me as I thought for sure the Falcons would do more damage against that Seattle defense in the dome.

Eagles at Giants: The Saquon Revenge Game Delivers

Revenge games can be overrated but running back Saquon Barkley had one of the best you’ll ever see for the Eagles against his Giants. He really carried the offense with 176 yards on just 17 carries, and he scored the game’s first touchdown, which might have been enough given the Giants could only muster a field goal in the 28-3 blowout.

That left Jalen Hurts with an easy job as he only had to throw for 114 yards. The game was avert-your-eyes bad for pass blocking as all four quarterbacks who played took sacks, including backup Kenny Pickett, and there were 13 sacks total between the teams.

Naturally, Daniel Jones took the worst of it with 7 sacks in a game where he didn’t have left tackle Andrew Thomas (surgery). Jones finished with 43 yards on 28 pass plays, which is pathetic even for his low standards.

The Giants punted 11 times, so they were even absurdly boring in blowout fashion. At least throw some picks. Risk something.

Bengals at Browns: When Losing Is Good

The Browns got Nick Chubb back for the first time in over a year, and they lost Deshaun Watson for the season to a torn Achilles on a non-contact play. All in all, that sounds like a great day, right?

Oddly enough, Chubb scored a touchdown on the drive where Watson was injured right before the half. Almost as if karma was taking over and the fortune was changing for Cleveland. But I thought it was odd before the game that Jameis Winston was announced as the No. 3 quarterback, demoted for the young Dorian Thompson-Robinson. What did Jameis do to get demoted? I thought he was the best quarterback on this roster.

It may have cost the Browns too, because DTR stunk off the bench. He completed 11-of-24 passes for 82 yards with multiple picks. A 34-yard run was his longest play on a day the Browns couldn’t actually run the ball on Cincinnati, a defense that has done a huge turnaround these last two weeks thanks to playing lines like the Giants and Browns in 2024.

But DTR was injured, allowing Winston to play in the fourth quarter. But it was too late by then. The Bengals started the game with a 100-yard kickoff return touchdown, but that Joe Burrow-led offense managed just two touchdowns in this 21-14 final. Another ho-hum performance where the Bengals were fortunate to be playing a bad team.

But the Watson story is over for 2024, and maybe that could help the Browns move on from him faster. Cleveland players supported Watson after the game and criticized the fans for cheering his injury. I could see where they’re coming from as teammates, and probably as players who hope they aren’t cheered while injured down the road. But they should also understand why fans feel that way about Watson.

Of course, I wouldn’t expect Winston or Myles Garrett to be the voice of reason on this topic. Winston is especially a bad messenger for this, and Garrett should know better as someone who is supposed to be the face of the franchise.

But it was nice to see Chubb back and in the end zone. More of that going forward.

Patriots vs. Jaguars: Do I Get on a Soapbox Again About That Strategy?

I didn’t get up to watch this one and see the Jaguars explode back from a 10-0 hole, but I was awake to see the 2-point conversion strategy become a talking point again. The Patriots were down 25-10, scored a touchdown with 8:22 left, decided to go for 2, didn’t get it, and they trailed by 9+ for the rest of the game, which eventually became a 32-16 loss after a poor finish.

I am consistently against going for 2 on the first touchdown as it is the strategy more likely to lead you into needing one onside kick recovery, if not two, and I never want anything to do with that hopeless endeavor. I also think the later in the game, the worse of a strategy it is. This wasn’t super late, but you have to keep in mind the Patriots hadn’t scored since the first quarter.

Also, when people talk about having “more information” aspect of it, do they ever consider things like the fact that the Patriots never ran a play from deeper than the Jacksonville 16 in this game? Seriously. Their failed 2-point conversion attempt was their only snap inside the final 15 yards of opponent territory in the game. Not exactly much practice at running your red zone and goal line packages in this game. Instead you’re completely cold to that area in the game, and now you have to make this crucial play or you’re down 2 scores with half a quarter left. Just something to consider that I never see considered. I don’t think confidence gets considered enough, not to mention the hopelessness felt from being down 2 scores.

But I don’t feel like getting into it any more over an inconsequential game between two of the worst teams in the league. I just know when the Patriots forced a punt and got the ball back with 3:58 left, it sure as hell would have been nicer if they were down 25-17 instead of 25-16. That way you could even punt on 4th-and-26 instead of having to go for it and for sure ending the game early with a big loss.

At least give me a chance in a one-score game. But the Patriots should again feel some encouragement with Drake Maye, who threw for 276 yards, 2 more touchdowns, and only took 2 sacks on 37 pass attempts. I’m not sure what sitting behind Jacoby Brissett did for him, but I’m glad we’re past that part of the season.

That still doesn’t mean I want to wake up at 9:30 A.M. to watch the post-Belichick Patriots play overseas against the London Jaguars.

Raiders at Rams: The “If a Bear Shits in the Woods…” Game of the Week

It’s a little early in the season to just not care at all about these teams, but that’s where I am already. I just don’t see either being part of the playoff picture. Matthew Stafford and Gardner Minshew both threw for 154 yards in this game, though Minshew did his work off the bench after starter Aidan O’Connell left with an injury.

But the Raiders kept trying to chip away with field goals while the Rams missed potentially a huge 35-yard field goal with 10:11 left that would have made it a 23-12 lead. Instead, Minshew later got the ball back in a 20-15 game with 1:39 left. If he truly is the Ryan Fitzpatrick of the 2020s, he lived up to the reputation with a game-ending interception on the third play of the drive. Good pressure on the drive by Jared Verse, who I guess is still the frontrunner for Defensive Rookie of the Year.

Dolphins at Colts: Neither Team Had Their Best Quarterback

Tough loss for Miami (2-4) if they were hoping to get back in this thing with Tua Tagovailoa maybe returning at quarterback next week. They were up 10-0 and Anthony Richardson couldn’t hit the broad side of a barn with his passes.

But the Dolphins gave up a big completion before halftime, which led to a field goal for the Colts. Then in the third quarter, they really coughed up the game to the Colts. Raheem Mostert lost a fumble, which led to a 28-yard touchdown drive, then Alec Ingold lost a fumble in the red zone in a 10-10 game.

The Colts had the ball to start the fourth and Richardson led what is technically his first game-winning drive in the NFL, ending with a 22-yard field goal with 8:41 left. But the Dolphins lost Tyler Huntley to injury, and he was replaced by the dreadful Tim Boyle. Kicker Jason Sanders missed a 54-yard tying field goal with 5:14 left.

After the Colts added a field goal to make it 16-10, a move you can get away with against Boyle, it was a poorly-run 2-minute drill for the Dolphins that didn’t make it past the Indy 33 before Boyle sailed his 4th-down pass out of bounds. Either he’s incredibly inaccurate and tried to get that pass to the sidelines, or he didn’t realize it was fourth down.

Either way, I hate entertaining either of these teams for wild card spots. This is not good football. A game between Joe Flacco and Tua might have been alright though.

Panthers at Commanders: Please, Spare My Favorite Rookie

The crazy thing is Jayden Daniels left in the first quarter with a rib injury and the Commanders still won 40-7. The Washington defense still matched the Carolina team in scoring thanks to a horrific Andy Dalton pick-six starting the scoring in the game. But Marcus Mariota replaced Daniels very well, and it was business as usual for this offense.

I think that says a lot more about how bad the Panthers are (again) than anything about Daniels being a system quarterback. You can’t teach his 46-yard run to anyone, but Mariota is a good fit for that offense.

I just hope Daniels is okay to go next week in the showdown with Chicago and fellow rookie Caleb Williams. It was clear there was no need to rush him back in this game with the score lopsided so quickly.

Next week: Vikings-Rams on TNF. Better than putting Sam Darnold in prime time a week later when the ghosts are out. Eagles-Bengals is a nice game for teams who peaked in 2022. I hope they #FreeJameis against Baltimore in Cleveland. The Falcons-Bucs rematch could be something after the first game was excellent. We need Jayden Daniels healthy for that Chicago game to save the late-window slate. Cowboys-49ers is oddly more interesting now that both teams are struggling. Giants-Steelers means we get to live the Russ experience in prime time again, but I see that as T.J. Watt’s launch game towards DPOY since he gets to face Daniel Jones. Overall, a huge step down from the Week 7 marquee games.

2024 NFL Stat Oddity: Week 6

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

At the very least, I picked the appropriate week to call my NFL picks “Favoring the Favorites” on Saturday. Favorites just went 11-2 SU and 10-3 ATS in Week 6 with Monday night pending. I took the underdog Jets for that one, so we’ll see, but it was finally a great day for the favorites.

And what a great day for the NFC North. The Lions blew out the Cowboys on Jerry Jones’ birthday to get some revenge for last year, the Packers routed the Cardinals, the Bears routed the Jaguars, and the 5-0 Vikings had a bye week. But every NFC North team is 4-2 or better, and they are the top four teams in scoring differential pending Buffalo on MNF.

That’s one of the craziest stats I’ve ever seen. But there was not much late-game drama in Week 6. Only six games had a comeback opportunity, including the Seahawks on Thursday night, and the only fourth-quarter lead change all day was in Tennessee.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Commanders at Ravens: Respectable in Defeat

Figures, I got greedy and took Ravens -9.5 and their late 30-20 lead didn’t hold up in this 30-23 final that was right on the spread and total (Ravens -6.5, O/U 51). Vegas nailed that one.

But while the Ravens still won to make both teams 4-2, I think you have to be impressed by the young Commanders and rookie Jayden Daniels. He didn’t have Brian Robinson Jr. and they couldn’t run the ball as he led the team with 22 rushing yards. Their defense has really struggled this year, and this game was no exception with Lamar Jackson throwing for 323 yards on 20-of-26 passing, and Derrick Henry rushed for 132 yards and 2 more touchdowns. The only Baltimore turnover was an interception on the first drive on a pass that went off Mark Andrews’ hands.

But the Commanders hung around the whole game. They had some struggles in Baltimore territory, and their 52-yard field goal was blocked to end the first half. Daniels showed some great ball placement on tough throws to Terry McLaurin, who caught 2 touchdowns (to the chagrin of my best parlays that needed Ekeler or Daniels to run it in).

Even though they lost, I think this is a good measuring stick game for the Commanders, and they should feel solid about how they performed against an elite AFC team. When they look at the rest of the NFC East on Sunday, they can’t feel that bad about this loss.

This game didn’t produce a memorable finish or even a true game-winning drive opportunity, but it was not a Baltimore blowout by any means like they’ve done to so many NFC teams in the Jackson era. Still, he is 22-1 against the NFC now.

Bengals at Giants: Can We Petition the NFL to Stop Putting Daniel Jones in Prime Time?

Daniel Jones is like a Gremlin where you can’t feed him or have him start an NFL game after 8:00 p.m. ET unless you want trouble. Jones is now 1-15 in prime-time starts with the Giants since 2019, and the latest was quite the masterpiece as he lost a 17-7 game at home to the Bengals on Sunday night.

What a week. Bengals fans went from lying about how Patrick Mahomes has never had a defense as bad as the 2024 Bengals, and now let’s see them pass off this game where the Bengals allowed 7 points on 10 drives, the fewest points allowed in Joe Burrow’s first 65 starts.

But it was such a weird game. We would have been scoreless into the third quarter if not for Burrow rushing for a 47-yard touchdown run on a 3rd-and-18 on the opening drive. The red sea parted and he just took off with barely enough speed to reach the pylon.

We were stuck like that for a long time, but the Giants started using four downs to convert some drives, and we eventually had a 10-7 game in the fourth quarter. But not only is Jones horrible in prime time, but we know game-winning drives are not his strength outside of the beginning of that 2022 season. He wasn’t horrific here, but he ran out of steam on a key drive when they had a chance to take the late lead on the Bengals.

Kicker Greg Joseph reminded us he used to kick for the Vikings when he was wide left on a 47-yard field goal that would have tied the game with 10:27 left. But after the Bengals punted, Jones had another chance. It ended with another turnover on downs, the second of the half as he just struggles to make those timing passes into short windows.

Burrow finally made a big play on a 3rd-and-12 with a 29-yard completion, and Chase Brown went from goat to hero (sort of) after scoring a 30-yard touchdown to make it 17-7 with 1:52 left. On the previous snap, Brown fumbled in the open field, which would have been a disaster if the Giants got on the ball before it landed out of bounds.

Brown could have just went down after he got the first, and the game would have been over with kneeldowns. Easiest way to do it and no injury risk to your defenders that way. But he scored to make us forget that fumble (and cover that 3.5-point spread).

On their responding drive, the Giants reached the Cincinnati 27 with the clock ticking under a minute and they spiked the ball with 55 seconds left to bring Joseph out for a 45-yard field goal. He was wide left again and the game was over.

My question is why are teams doing this now? The Broncos did something very similar, if not more egregious, against the Chargers on Sunday in the same situation with a 10-point deficit. Why are we kicking on first down with a minute left with the end zone 20-to-25 yards away? I’d rather take some shots from there to get the touchdown, then I can get my miracle onside kick recovery, then I can set up a long field goal with one or two snaps if it’s going to happen.

That still feels like a better scenario than forcing the field goal, getting the tough onside kick, and possibly having to force a long touchdown play, if not a Hail Mary that’s very low percentage. If you manage the clock and have a play called instead of the spike like the Giants did, you could have been inside the 15 with the clock stopped and 45 seconds left if you use the sidelines.

I don’t know if the Giants and Broncos are just seeing this differently than the rest of the league will, but I didn’t like the rush for the field goal in either scenario Sunday. Even if you recover the onside kick, you’re still going to be about 55 yards from the end zone. How long will it take you to get the 30 yards closer then you are now? Keep in mind the Giants didn’t have a single play gain more than 15 yards all night.

I want to see more examples of this in 2024 to see what other teams do. But the Bengals got the win here as expected, even if the 17-7 outcome was nothing like anyone expected.

Lions at Cowboys: Someone Take Jerry to the Glory Hole for a Better Birthday

I really liked Detroit in this one after what happened last season with the illegal formation penalty in a 20-19 game won by Dallas. But I never expected 47-9 with the Cowboys simply getting destroyed at home on both sides of the ball. The defense getting annihilated without Micah Parsons against that Detroit attack? Sure, that part makes sense.

But the offense couldn’t find the end zone once in 11 drives? Really? Dak Prescott didn’t even throw for 200 yards as they benched him with the game out of hand. The Cowboys finished with 5 turnovers in an embarrassing loss, the worst home loss of Jerry Jones’ career and on his 82nd birthday.

But despite the big win, the Lions suffered a big loss on the day. Aidan Hutchinson was dominating this season and a favorite for Defensive Player of the Year. But on a play where he sacked Prescott in the third quarter, Hutchinson broke his tibia in one of the most gruesome injuries I’ve ever seen in an NFL game.

That’s a terrible break for Detroit as you need that kind of edge rusher for a Super Bowl season. It can’t be all offense every week, but right now, the Lions are clicking on that side of the ball. They were clicking everywhere in Dallas on Sunday.

Cardinals at Packers: Complete Effort

When I picked the Packers to win the Super Bowl or at least get there from the NFC this season, this is the kind of performance I pictured of them at their best. Jordan Love spreading the ball to his weapons with defenses not knowing who to key in against. He threw 4 touchdowns to three different receivers in this one and he didn’t take a sack. The running game was also dominant, and something I didn’t quite expect, but the defense has been stellar at forcing splash plays all year. They had 3 more takeaways in this 34-13 rout.

The Cardinals are frustrating, man. They come up just short of beating Buffalo, they came back to beat the 49ers last week, but they’ve also stunk offensively against the Lions, Commanders, and now Packers. It didn’t help that Marvin Harrison Jr. was injured before he could make a catch in this game but come on. They have enough talent to score more than 13 points.

I’d still like to see a turnover-free game from Love, but 34 points will absolve him here. Now let’s start stacking wins like last year.

Jaguars vs. Bears: Caleb Williams’ Critics Are Getting Quiet Quickly

Just like how you don’t trash Caitlin Clark after 5 games, you don’t dismiss the No. 1 overall pick after a couple of games in the NFL. You can take shots at the competition, but the Bears are scoring points during this 3-game winning streak. They’ve had back-to-back games with at least 35 points.

Williams faced the London Jaguars on their turf, and he threw 4 touchdown passes, completely taking control of the offense in a 35-16 win. Even the 3 sacks he took only lost 5 yards in this game as he completed 23-of-29 passes for 226 yards. Picking apart a bad defense is what you hope to see from a rookie, and Williams delivered with Cole Kmet and Keenan Allen both catching a pair of touchdowns. D.J. Moore (20 yards) didn’t even have to do much this week, which speaks to Williams’ ability to spread the ball around and make things happen.

All of a sudden, I don’t hear the Justin Fields truthers complaining that he’s gone. I don’t see the people burying the Bears for this pick or poking fun at the thought of Williams having the best supporting cast for a rookie QB drafted No. 1 overall.

We’ll see what happens in these division games as the NFC North is incredible to start this season. But Williams is an impressive rookie and Chicago fans can be excited again. As for the Jaguars, they’re reportedly staying in London for the New England game next Sunday. If they lose that one too, I’m thinking Doug Pederson gets the axe a la Robert Saleh.

Texans at Patriots: Drake Maye Era Begins

Can we stop pretending like Drake Maye would have died if he started a game in September for the Patriots? He faced the best pass rush in Houston, took 4 sacks, but still threw 3 touchdowns (Jacoby Brissett had 2 all season), threw for 243 yards, and he led the team with 38 rushing yards as they couldn’t provide him with a running game.

Were their mistakes? Sure, he had 3 turnovers, but what did you expect? Houston was marching early for touchdowns and he was chasing. But there were positive moments and fans should feel optimistic given how ugly some of those Week 1 rookie starts were this year.

It’s also amusing to me that in one Drake Maye start, the Patriots allowed 41 points on defense. Tom Brady only had one game his entire career where they allowed more points than that. Go figure.

But Houston is one of the best teams he could have faced this year. Better days will be ahead. Try to focus on the positives in the 41-21 loss. At the same time, Houston finally won a game by more than 6 points this year, so good for them too. Joe Mixon has been stellar in his two full games for this offense, which didn’t miss Nico Collins at all for this matchup.

Browns at Eagles: Philly Has No Aura

I’m always talking about the quick turnarounds in the NFC and how that conference loves to produce a new flash in the pan each year. The Eagles are a great example of this. They had a great season in 2022 when they reached the Super Bowl, then they were 10-1 last year even if they were very fortunate to win several of those games, which foreshadowed their collapse.

But this team has no aura anymore. Even with A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith returning for this game, which was critical as they won it for Jalen Hurts with the running game stuffed, the Eagles still struggled at home to score 20 points. They were in a dogfight with Deshaun Watson, who took 5 more sacks and sucked on 3rd down again.

This was a 13-13 game in the fourth quarter before Smith took a short pass and turned it into a 45-yard game-winning touchdown with half a quarter left. The Browns had their chances in the fourth quarter but settled for a field goal both times. The last one made it 20-16 with 3:54 left.

The Eagles were able to bleed the clock on offense with Brown making a 40-yard catch to ice it. Brown and Smith had 3-of-4 plays that gained over 20 yards for the Eagles in this game.

If they were playing a better quarterback than Watson, which would be about anyone in 2024, things may have gone worse in this one. The Eagles are 3-2, and that’s only good enough for No. 9 in the NFC at the moment.

They’ll have to play much better than this to leapfrog some of these teams, but the division is still their clearest path to the playoffs. But I’ll be curious to see how this defense handles Jayden Daniels and the Commanders twice.

Steelers at Raiders: Guess Oakland Had the Voodoo That Vegas Doesn’t

I’m so used to the Steelers going on the road to lose to the Raiders, but maybe Las Vegas doesn’t hold the same voodoo for them that the Oakland Coliseum had. The Steelers won in Vegas last year, the only game where Kenny Pickett threw two touchdown passes. The Steelers won there again this time with Najee Harris finally ending his touchdown drought with a great effort on a 36-yard run.

But there weren’t many offensive highlights outside of that. After falling behind 7-6, the Steelers lived on short fields the rest of the way, which has a lot to do with the 32 points. Justin Fields struggled to sustain offense, but it’s hard not to put up decent points when you’re starting two drives inside the opponent’s 10 and another two drives inside the 36. The Raiders also had some crucial roughing penalties to take away a Fields’ pick and a 3rd-down stop that extended another scoring drive.

Russell Wilson was active for the first time all season but remained a backup. I guess the win won’t change a thing for Tomlin’s choice at quarterback, but I still think this team is screwed when Fields has to outscore the better teams. Fortunately, this was Aidan O’Connell trying his best without Davante Adams or Jakobi Meyers available.

T.J. Watt is also the likely favorite for Defensive Player of the Year after the Aidan Hutchinson injury. He forced two fumbles in this one. Just one of the best players ever at knocking the ball out.

Chargers at Broncos: Healthy Justin Herbert Returns

The intrigue at the start of this one was when coach Jim Harbaugh momentarily left the game for what was an arrhythmia situation. Thankfully, he was able to return. Thankfully, the Chargers didn’t blow a 23-0 lead in the fourth quarter, though they tried their best.

But a healthy Justin Herbert made a big difference as he threw for more yards by halftime than he had in any full game this season after having the bye week to heal up. The Broncos’ defense had been playing very well, but Herbert had no problems early, and it didn’t hurt that Patrick Surtain left with an injury.

But you would like to see the Chargers close things out better than this after giving up the last 16 points in the last 11 minutes. Fortunately, the Broncos didn’t recover the onside kick after getting a second crack at it.

Buccaneers at Saints: Baker’s 50 Burger

What a nutty, frustrating game. One of my core plays this week was Chris Olave going over 5.5 yards in the first quarter after rookie Spencer Rattler talked about getting him the ball after a quiet game against the Chiefs. He was facing the Tampa defense that gave up over 500 yards to Kirk Cousins last week. It made too much sense.

Of course, Rattler fires a pass to Olave in trouble on the third snap of the opening drive, he takes a huge helmet-to-helmet shot, fumbles the ball for a (questionable) touchdown by the defense, and the play only gained 5 yards. He missed the rest of the game for the concussion, something that has plagued his career.

That’s the kind of shit that will make you quit gambling. He just had to lead him into a huge hit like that. Then before you know it, the Saints are down 17-0 and everything looks so bleak. But not even 11 minutes later, they were leading 20-17 thanks to some Baker Mayfield turnovers and a punt return touchdown by Rashid Shaheed. Before you know it, the Saints put up 27 points in the second quarter with Rattler looking like a cheap imitation of Patrick Mahomes.

But the Saints never scored again. In fact, this is the first time since a Mahomes game against the 2019 Raiders where a team scored this many points (28 in that case) in the second quarter and none in any other quarter. That game actually was scoreless by both teams after halftime.

Not the case here. Even though Mayfield threw 3 interceptions, he had this offense moving all day to the tune of 594 yards. He also threw for 325 yards and 4 touchdowns with Chris Godwin (11/125/2) posting a huge line. Without Rachaad White, the Buccaneers rushed for 277 yards and eventually put up 51 points.

This was still a 31-27 game with a quarter left, but Rattler threw a bad pick immediately to start the fourth quarter. That’s when the avalanches really started as Tampa won 51-27. But it was a very weird game script.

Colts at Titans: Flacco Delivers in Surprise Start

I’m sure Shane Steichen gets the sense that his offense is better with Joe Flacco than it is Anthony Richardson, especially when Jonathan Taylor is inactive. Richardson was supposed to start, but Flacco got the call in the end. It was just that kind of week for the Colts as No. 1 wide receiver Michael Pittman was supposed to go on injured reserve for his bad back, but he ended up playing and had a huge impact.

Pittman came down with a 10-yard game-winning touchdown with 7:27 left. Pittman also made a 16-yard grab at the two-minute warning that allowed the Colts to run most of the clock with a 20-17 lead. The Titans only had time left for the lateral play to end it.

But the Titans had the ball multiple times in the fourth quarter, only needing a field goal to tie. Will Levis threw a pick with 4:52 left, then they decided to punt on a 4th-and-7 at their own 25 with 2:26 left. They had three clock stoppages left, but it was probably the wrong decision in a 20-17 game. They only had 12 seconds when they got the ball back to work with.

Of course, having Will Levis as your quarterback probably means you’re screwed even if the game was another 30 minutes. Levis finished 16-of-27 for 95 yards against what has been one of the worst defenses this year. He was 0-for-8 when targeting to Calvin Ridley, who I can tell you I won’t be targeting again in prop picks the rest of the season. He’s made the shitlist.

I really think the Titans need to be close to benching Levis for Mason Rudolph. If you look at their touchdown drives in this game, one was 27 yards after a Flacco pick, and the other was only made possible by Tony Pollard breaking a 23-yard run on 3rd-and-19.

This game also reminded me of just how many flags Flacco draws with his dangerous passes. He had 5 flags drawn in this game for defensive pass interference, defensive holding, illegal contact, or roughing the passer, including a wiped-out pick and several third-down incompletions erased by penalty.

But that’s Flacco. He just keeps slinging it – eight straight games with multiple touchdown passes – even in games where he wasn’t supposed to play.

Falcons at Panthers: Rare Easy Win for Kirk Cousins

In typical Kirk Cousins fashion, the Falcons have been living on the edge all season, having already won three of the most improbable games of the 2024 season. This looked like the last hope for some late-game drama in the late-afternoon window as Cousins and Andy Dalton were trading scoring drives as Atlanta took a 28-20 lead into the fourth quarter.

But in a familiar story for the Panthers for many years now, they folded in the fourth. Dalton was intercepted in scoring territory, and the Falcons cranked up their running game in this one – over 200 yards before Cousins’ kneeldowns – and put together an 84-yard touchdown drive to make it 35-20. A quick four-and-out by Carolina led to another field goal and a 38-20 final. Dalton threw another pick to officially end things.

At 1-5, I expect Carolina to turn things back to Bryce Young. You have to see what more you have there, and maybe he’ll try things differently after this benching. Dalton is what he is, and it’s just not enough to compete this year. Let’s get some assurance that Young sucks and the team needs to shop elsewhere for 2025.

Next week: I see an early writing night on Thursday with Saints-Broncos, but Sean Payton will probably win that one in New Orleans. I’m sleeping in even longer for Patriots-Jaguars than I did for Bears-Jaguars in London. But the NFL actually delivers with the rest of the Week 7 schedule, including Packers-Texans, Lions-Vikings, and Chiefs-49ers. Not fond of Jets-Steelers on SNF, but Ravens-Buccaneers is coming at a great time on a MNF doubleheader with the less important Chargers-Cardinals. Don’t think we’ll have two undefeated teams left after this Sunday.