2015 NFL Divisional Round Predictions

January 16, 2016 ~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

Hands down, this is the greatest weekend of the NFL year. Four crucial games with the eventual Super Bowl winner somewhere in the mix.

This year’s final eight have a collection of starting quarterbacks that are among the best the round has ever seen. I haven’t figured out a good way yet of combining the colors to account for people who accomplished multiple feats, but we have a table below (click it to enlarge) to show their accolades. I think 1993 is the best competition for this year. The 2015 group includes four future HOF locks, three MVP winners (about to be four), five Super Bowl winners and four No. 1 overall picks (one in each game).

Of course, Ben Roethlisberger enters this week on shaky ground with the shoulder injury. Tom Brady did not have a stellar second-half finish this year (59.8%, 6.96 YPA, 89.7 PR, 4-4 record with a dropped game-ending INT vs. Giants). Alex Smith 2.0 is still Alex Smith 2.0. Aaron Rodgers and Peyton Manning had their worst seasons as starters, and you really don’t know what to expect from either this weekend. Cam Newton, Carson Palmer and Russell Wilson all thrived with their best season yet in 2015. But collectively for their careers, this is a fascinating group of quarterbacks.

All the road teams won last week, but you tend to favor the home teams in the divisional round. However, there has been at least one road upset in every year since 2005.

Seasons where three home teams lost in the divisional round (2): 1971 and 2008

Seasons where two home teams lost in the divisional round (12): 1976, 1977, 1979, 1980, 1984, 1987, 1995, 2003, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2010

Seasons where zero home teams lost in the divisional round (9): 1973, 1974, 1988, 1990, 1991, 1994, 1998, 2002, 2004

Kansas City at New England

Some probably think the key to winning in New England is to outduel Tom Brady in a high-scoring game. Historically, that has not been the case. Brady has only lost 16 home games in which he played to completion since 2001. The key ingredient to a win is defense as the Patriots were held to 21 points or less in 14 of those 16 games. Brady played below average in the majority of these games.

Do the Chiefs have the defense to make this one of these games? I think so, but I would feel more confident if Justin Houston was healthier. There is talent at every level for the Chiefs, but this team is so dependent on takeaways and field position. You don’t expect to get many takeaways from the Patriots, who had a league-low 14 giveaways with never more than two in any game. Pressure is a great equalizer however, and the Chiefs don’t have to blitz to get it. When the Chiefs don’t blitz, they have forced QBs into a league-low 37.7 QBR. When the Chiefs get pressure, QBs have a 3.8 QBR, second-worst in the league. Pressure is going to be crucial in this one, which is why the return of Julian Edelman is so key. He’s the safety valve for Brady, someone who can easily catch 8-10 balls and fight for YAC most receivers don’t get. However, he hasn’t played in two months and who knows what we’ll be getting from him today. There is also the case of Rob Gronkowski’s surprising injuries this week. He is questionable and the Chiefs have done a great job against tight ends all year. James White has done a very good job of replacing Dion Lewis’ contributions in the receiving game, but the Chiefs rarely let receiving backs do much damage against them. Those are the three areas the Patriots like to throw the most, but the Chiefs seem to have a solid answer at each level.

I don’t expect the Patriot offense to be razor sharp. It hasn’t been for half a season as the injuries piled up, and don’t forget the OL situation. In the last 9 games, NE’s offense has not topped 28 offensive points. Surprisingly, the 28 came in that home loss to the Eagles, but we know the Eagles won that thanks to three return touchdowns. You don’t ever expect that, though the Chiefs know a lot about non-offensive scoring this year. It has been crucial to their 11-game winning streak, a streak I question the competition from, but a win here would be extremely impressive regardless of the Patriots finishing 2-4 down the stretch.

While the Chiefs have won 11 in a row, the Patriots are 11-0 in the playoffs against a new opponent and 10-8 in a rematch since 2001. The last meeting between these teams of course was early in 2014 when the Chiefs routed the Patriots, but I don’t think that game plays a factor here. It was too long ago with many different players.

Not to keep going back to that weird Philadelphia game, but the Eagles broke NE’s streak of 94 consecutive home wins when leading by 8+ points at any time. Regardless, you still don’t want to fall behind in Foxboro, and the Chiefs are not an offense built to come back. A good start is going to be key, as is winning that turnover battle (hell, Eagles lost that too). The Chiefs are a good candidate to win that TO battle since their differential is +14 this year.

Alex Smith has not thrown for 200 yards in any of his last six games, and that might suit the Chiefs okay if they are running the ball well and playing with the lead. However, I think he needs to make some more plays in this one, even if it’s with his legs. Andy Reid needs to get creative with jet sweeps and zone-read in this one. Spencer Ware has looked like KC’s best back, though he too has been banged up this week. I think the Chiefs can replace Jeremy Maclin better than most teams could replace their No. 1 WR, just because they don’t throw as much as other offenses. Maybe Maclin plays, but it is hard to see him being productive with a high ankle sprain. Travis Kelce has to play a huge game and rookie Chris Conley must step up. That’s why I think a smart running attack is going to be key to this offense. You’re not going to expect Smith to throw for 300 yards today with this cast against an underrated defense fully capable of carrying the Patriots to a win here with their own sacks against a conservative QB. You don’t think Belichick can figure out a way to take away Kelce and pounce on the leftovers? That’s why turnovers and field position are likely to be the decisive factors. If you feed the Chiefs great opportunities, they take advantage with a very efficient red-zone offense.

Unless Edelman is a bust in his return and Gronkowski is really ineffective, then I think the Patriots will do just enough to get by here in a low-scoring game.

Green Bay at Arizona

While I don’t expect this to look like the 38-8 Arizona win from Week 16, I’m not drinking the Kool-Aid that “the Pack is back” after beating lowly Washington. Aaron Rodgers still averaged a Joey Harrington-like 5.83 YPA last week and has lost Davante Adams, who played one of his best games this year. This game goes as the Green Bay offensive line goes. All the sacks and fumble-sixes from the last game ended that one in the third quarter. You expect better protection with a different lineup this time, but that Arizona defense is still great even after the loss of Tyrann Mathieu, who did not play in Week 16. If Eddie Lacy and James Starks can get going, then we should have a competitive game, but I just don’t trust the GB running game against this front.

Bruce Arians and Carson Palmer are seeking their first playoff win. The Week 17 loss to Seattle was shockingly bad from this team, which was arguably the best in the league heading into that game. Sure, it was a game they may not have necessarily approached with 100% will to win with starters for 60 minutes, but Seattle owned them by halftime. Now with a bye week to stew, Arizona enters this week in a weird position as the only team without a recent playoff win under its belt. Palmer’s only bad game this season was in Week 17 as I voted him the league MVP for his amazing consistency. He’ll need to rebound here and I think he will. His receivers are healthy and David Johnson has been a great addition as the workhorse back. Chris Johnson’s injury was a blessing in disguise. The Cardinals should bring great balance to this game and can beat you in multiple ways. Short of Rodgers turning in a classic performance, I’m not sold Green Bay can outscore this offense.

If you punch the Packers in the mouth early, they’re not a team likely to get back up. I think Arizona accomplishes that and advances to the NFC Championship Game.

Seattle at Carolina

There may have been a difference of 5 wins between these teams in the regular season, but I still think the Seahawks have the better coach, better quarterback and better overall roster. Does that translate to a victory with Carolina having the bye and not having to travel after playing in the freezing cold last week? Not sure about that, but it should be close again as these teams have played tough, close games since 2012. Sure, the 31-17 final in last year’s playoffs looks lopsided, but Carolina had the ball in a 17-10 fourth quarter in that one. With Seattle, you just cannot expect to ever blow that team out as it has an NFL-record 87-game streak of being at least within one score in the fourth quarter.

This does not feel like your usual matchup of highest-scoring offense vs. highest-scoring defense. Maybe it’s because Carolina started the season with a great D/not as great O and Seattle ended the season with great O/great D. Both teams have been scoring a lot more since the midseason point, but Seattle’s defense got stronger while we saw some more cracks from Carolina, especially against the pass after suffering some defensive back injuries. I think Russell Wilson, who seems destined to play in close playoff games every time, can make some big plays here to his wide receivers. Backyard football may be the strategy again, because I don’t see the Seattle OL holding up well against Carolina’s rush. Marshawn Lynch is expected to return, but he really has not had a good season. I would be surprised if he had a big game as the offensive load is going to fall on Wilson here. Jonathan Stewart is also expected back for Carolina, but I think the Seahawks can contain that part of Carolina’s offense. The bigger question mark is Newton’s rushing, which you know he’ll go all out for with the season on the line. Then again, Newton has rushed for 24-42 yards in his five meetings with Seattle (1 TD), so they have contained the big plays. I don’t expect Ted Ginn Jr. to do much in this one, especially if lined up with Richard Sherman.

The X-factor seemingly is Greg Olsen. Not only is he Carolina’s leading receiver, but the tight end position has just been a weakness all year for Seattle, ranked 26th in DVOA. The crazy part is Kam Chancellor’s return did not fix that problem and he’s been beaten by the likes of Olsen and Tyler Eifert this year, and he essentially gave up game-losing plays to tight ends in Minnesota last week had the field goal been good. Olsen does disappear at times this season, though that’s really just a factor of Carolina being a run-heavy offense. I can’t imagine he won’t be a significant part of this game plan, though don’t you think Seattle knows that by now? Olsen did most of his damage in the fourth quarter of Carolina’s win in Seattle this year, a game the Seahawks led 23-14 before blowing a 4Q lead for one of five times this season. This has been a multi-year problem with the Seahawks with the defense losing it late. Newton can certainly get hot and do it to them again, which is why you fully expect a 60-minute game out of this one.

Seattle has better special teams, a unit that seems to pull horseshoes out of its ass based on some of these playoff endings, though this game will probably end with Steven Hauschka missing a chipshot field goal to pass on the NFC curse again like last year.

Pittsburgh at Denver

This was my preview at FO this week, so please check out that epic beast there. The injuries to Antonio Brown and Ben Roethlisberger really suck, because we might not see a better matchup all year than the Pittsburgh offense vs. Denver defense. Last time, the Broncos were down three safeties. You get those guys back, take away Brown and Williams, and Denver’s defense should do much better at home here. I don’t really know what to expect from Peyton Manning and the offense, but playing a careful game would be wise. If this defense is as great as people have been saying all year, then they absolutely have to take care of these wounded Steelers at home. Brown was such a high-percentage receiver for Ben.

You might be able to get some big plays from Martavis Bryant and Markus Wheaton, but the consistency is not going to be there like it was with Brown. And it’s still an unknown just how far Roethlisberger can throw the ball, or what will happen after he takes some hits on it.

FINAL PREDICTIONS

I went 3-1 last week, though the scores left a lot to be desired.

Patriots over Chiefs, 20-13
Cardinals over Packers, 31-20
Seahawks over Panthers, 23-20
Broncos over Steelers, 23-16

Season Results

Week 1: 10-6
Week 2: 6-10
Week 3: 14-2
Week 4: 11-4
Week 5: 9-5
Week 6: 8-6
Week 7: 10-4
Week 8: 10-4
Week 9: 8-5
Week 10: 4-10
Week 11: 9-5
Week 12: 8-8
Week 13: 11-5
Week 14: 10-6
Week 15: 11-5
Week 16: 9-7
Week 17: 8-8
Wild Card: 3-1
Season: 159-101 (.612)

2014 NFL Divisional Round Predictions: Bunch of Homers

January 10, 2015January 10, 2015 ~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

Did you notice a trend on Wild Card weekend? Defenses stepped up again. The four winning teams allowed 10, 16, 17 and 20 points. That includes a couple of safeties from the Saturday games, and it’s not like Ryan Lindley did much to earn those two Arizona touchdowns on short fields. Only Dallas gave up 20 thanks to a slow start, but came through with the late fumble to clinch the win.

It’s not so much about running this time of year, but strong quarterback play and team defense are what drive so many playoff victories.

This week it’s all about elite home teams trying to avoid upsets on the greatest week of the NFL year. This year’s group is especially dominant at home with a combined 30-2 record. Dallas won in Seattle and the Bills beat New England in a meaningless game with plenty of reserves getting playing time. It’s going to be hard to get a road upset this week, but every season since 2005 has had at least one in the Divisional round.

Ravens at Patriots

Since 2001, the Patriots are 9-0 in the playoffs against a new opponent and 9-8 in a rematch from the regular season. Baltimore plays New England so often that it’s not really a “new” opponent, but so be it. I actually think there’s been too much hype about the Ravens’ past success in Foxboro, which includes two playoff wins (2009 and 2012) and that of course should be three without one of the most disastrous endings ever (2011 AFC Championship). But these teams have changed a lot since 2012. Then again, I’m willing to bet these teams changed a lot from 2009 to 2012, and Baltimore still kicked NE’s ass in that second half on its way to the Super Bowl. Still, for a guy like Baltimore cornerback Rashaan Melvin, those past games mean nothing this week.

The Ravens are uniquely built to deal with the Patriots better than any team in the AFC this year. A big part of that is coaching, because John Harbaugh, Dean Pees and company are the only staff in the AFC playoffs you could trust to head into Foxboro and get the job done. Bill Belichick has a massive advantage over the other coaches, especially if you give him a bye week to prepare. Pittsburgh’s elimination has probably helped create a better AFC playoffs.

The defense that steps up is going to win this game. We have trashed Tom Brady’s deep ball so much this week I almost expect him to hit one in this game, though it will probably be on a blown coverage or something of that nature. Still, that’s a possibility with this secondary and the way NE schemes so well to get receivers open. Brandon LaFell checked his verticality at the door when he joined the Patriots this year and we know Julian Edelman isn’t that kind of receiver. In the past Baltimore has done a good job of limiting that slot WR’s production in this offense. He might catch nine passes, but only for 70 yards. Baltimore is actually quite good at defending the short passes this year (ranked 3rd), but those deep throws are where this defense is most vulnerable (ranked 31st). That’s why the front seven, which is led by so many great veterans, must dominate this game with Elvis Dumervil, Terrell Suggs and Haloti Ngata applying pressure on Brady. This isn’t a very consistent OL or running game like the Patriots have had in past years. Look at how the Jets held NE to 17 points recently. They got after Brady despite a poor secondary. The Ravens can do the same through their front seven and general coaching familiarity with the NE offense.

A difference maker this year should be Rob Gronkowski, who is finally healthy for the playoffs. How do you ever match up with that guy? He can take this game over, and he may have to because this isn’t that dominant of an offense unless he’s playing at a high level. Everyone wants to ignore the first month of the season for the Patriots when Gronk was recovering. Okay, let’s do that. That means the worst four games of the season for this offense have been the last four. In the last eight games of the season Brady’s YPA is just 6.81 (below league average). When you try to do everything methodically on offense, those little mistakes like penalties, drops and sacks can easily kill drives. The Ravens are also the No. 1 defense in the red zone, so they’ll have to hold up there and limit Brady to field goals. Again, uniquely constructed to give the offense a chance in this one.

The Ravens will also be hoping there’s some rust from the NE offense, which had a bye week and rested guys in Week 17. The last time this offense looked really sharp was in the second half against Miami. That was on December 14.

Joe Flacco has to live up to his playoff hype and play a great game against a stingy defense that has allowed 12 points after halftime in its last six games. Yeah, that’s just ridiculous and has only been done three times since 1960 (1976 Steelers and 1989 Redskins) to end a season. Flacco has — gulp — been the most consistent playoff quarterback in the AFC since 2011, but he’s relied largely on avoiding interceptions despite his general inaccuracy and willingness to launch bombs. I think he’s going to find quickly that won’t work well against this secondary with Darrelle Revis, Brandon Browner and Devin McCourty. Flacco has to be more precise or there will be tips and picks. He also has to be very nimble and able to escape pressure and still make plays like he did in Pittsburgh. Gary Kubiak’s offense is known for play action and bootleg action, and used to have plenty of success against Belichick defenses when Kubiak was with Mike Shanahan in Denver. Hell, Jake Plummer went 3-0 against the Pats in 2005-06. Flacco has to hit big plays and limit mistakes, which is far easier said than done in the toughest building to win in the NFL.

The Patriots have allowed one fourth-quarter comeback at home since 2001 (Eli Manning in 2011). ONE.

Left tackle Eugene Monroe is questionable for the game. That worries me, because the rookie James Hurst is a major liability. I also don’t like guard Marshal Yanda at right tackle, because that means he’s farther away from Vince Wilfork in the middle. This might not be another good day for Justin Forsett, who needs to help out. At least the Ravens are unique in their passing game that there’s no obvious No. 1 WR for Revis to try taking away. Flacco will throw to whoever, but both Smiths have to show up big. I also think Owen Daniels deserves some look in this game. The Patriots rank 30th against tight ends.

Should be a good one, but I think New England is a superior team playing at home. The only good team’s Baltimore really been able to beat was Pittsburgh (twice), and that team was very flawed. I felt good about the Ravens in 2011-12 to pull of those upsets. I don’t have that feeling this week, because I think the NE defense is going to rise to the occasion this time.

Panthers at Seahawks

Let’s see. Seattle has allowed 39 points in its last six games, first team to do that since the legendary 1976 Steelers. Yes, that team failed to win the Super Bowl, but go look up their defensive run to see why I called them legendary.

The Panthers have put up 28 points in three games at home the last three years against Seattle (0-3). So where are the points coming from this week? Even if the Carolina defense gets Russell Wilson contained, hit, sacked and turned over at least once, where are the points coming from? Cam Newton isn’t even healthy right now and he played poorly at home when he was healthy against this defense.

Warning: Cam Newton has led Carolina to 19 points on 27 drives against Seattle in his career.

The Seahawks are pursuing a dynasty. Losing this game at home to such an inferior opponent would really destroy that mystique. It would also destroy the dream matchup in the NFC of seeing Seattle against Green Bay/Dallas, not to mention a potential dream Super Bowl of Seattle against any AFC team (okay, maybe except Baltimore). Carolina winning would be like some cretin walking into an extravagant party and taking a giant shit in the middle of the ballroom floor. You just shit all over the playoffs, Ron Rivera. Are you happy now?

Seattle’s offensive shortcomings are the only reason to worry this will be another close game, and the Seahawks definitely don’t want another one of those against Carolina. Some day the ball is going to bounce the other way.

2012 (L 16-12): Newton short-hopped a go-ahead touchdown pass late in the fourth quarter.

2013 (L 12-7): After a Wilson bomb put Seattle back on top, DeAngelo Williams fumbled in the red zone and the Seahawks ran out the clock with a long drive.

2014 (L 13-9): Wilson led a great GWD late for the win while Newton ended by bouncing a screen pass off the ground on 4th-and-25.

Don’t let the game get to that point again, but I think we’re in for a lot of punts and a generally uninteresting game.

Then again, the Seahawks are usually better at home and the game is in prime time instead of a 10:00 A.M. start. There are studies that suggest Pacific teams are at their peak in these prime-time games.

Sure enough, Pete Carroll is 15-1 in prime time with Seattle, only losing to another Pacific team (49ers) in 2012 in a low-scoring game back when Wilson still had his training wheels on.

Cowboys at Packers

Alright, a 8-0 road team against a 8-0 home team. About time. This is the best shot of the week for a road upset, because Dallas has the balanced offense to control this game and the clock. Tony Romo and Aaron Rodgers have been the best quarterbacks this season playing behind two of the most improved offensive lines. Each team has a great No. 1 wide receiver too, but I think this is a game for Eddie Lacy and DeMarco Murray to take center stage given the weather and the fact that both quarterbacks have some injury concerns. Neither run defense is very good, though the Cowboys also have the worst pass defense (ranked 22nd in DVOA) of the remaining eight teams. That sounds like advantage Green Bay and Rodgers, but will he still be Rodgers with the calf injury? Dallas would be silly not to attack early and test that mobility. Rodgers can still execute from the pocket at a very high level, but it’s not the same offense if he’s stuck in that box and trying to release everything quickly.

It’s always crucial to survive the early part of the game against the Packers, especially at Lambeau. We know how quickly the avalanche of points can come. We also know if you punch this team in the mouth and make them play a 60-minute game, then you have a great shot of pulling out the late win, something Romo and Dallas have done often over the years. Last December the Cowboys blew a 23-point lead at home to Green Bay, but that was with Matt Flynn at quarterback. At least we know if something happens to Rodgers again with the calf, the Packers have one of the more competent backups.

The Packers have trailed for 9 minutes and 15 seconds in the second half at home this year (all in Week 2 vs. Jets).

I don’t fear Dallas getting avalanched in this one, because this is a much better team than most of the ones GB has faced this season. We also saw the Jets perform well in this building, as did the Falcons in the second half after a horrible start. I don’t think either one of these defenses is good enough to ignite a championship run, but the one that gets the turnovers and big stops on Sunday will earn this win. Rodgers hasn’t thrown a pick at home since 2012, so you really have to rely on a tipped ball or fumble. Dallas has 31 takeaways this season despite a no-name defense.

So often this year the Cowboys have gone against expectations. I’m not calling them a “team of destiny” or anything like that, but this is a team with a lot of guys playing their best football ever and the results speak for themselves.

Colts at Broncos

Anything I had to analyze about this game is in my massive preview at Football Outsiders, so please go read it there.

I’ll just say this: any Indianapolis fan that’s painting Peyton Manning as a bad playoff quarterback needs to get a clue. He’s only one of the best playoff quarterbacks in NFL history. The Colts failed him as a team far too often and you are going to experience the same damn thing this weekend when Andrew Luck tries to take his one-man show on the road against a superior team*.

*Of course I should not be held responsible for a Jack Del Rio-influenced letdown, but good luck to the Colts trying to find a running game and defense this week. Rome wasn’t built in a day.

FINAL PREDICTIONS

I just couldn’t take all the home teams again.

Patriots over Ravens, 23-16
Seahawks over Panthers, 20-10
Cowboys over Packers, 30-26
Broncos over Colts, 28-21

Season Results

Week 1: 8-8
Week 2: 9-7
Week 3: 11-5
Week 4: 8-5
Week 5: 11-4
Week 6: 9-5-1
Week 7: 10-5
Week 8: 10-5
Week 9: 11-2
Week 10: 10-3
Week 11: 8-6
Week 12: 12-3
Week 13: 9-7
Week 14: 11-5
Week 15: 14-2
Week 16: 10-6
Week 17: 11-5
Wild Card: 3-1
Total: 175-84-1

2013 NFL Divisional Round Predictions: San Diego Super Upset?

January 11, 2014January 11, 2014 ~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

We’re about to experience the greatest weekend of the NFL year. Shocking upsets make it great when we see which of last week’s winners can go on the road and beat the rested bye teams, who obviously compiled the top records in the league. Anymore, it’s hard to keep calling them upsets when the playoffs produce so many of these results every year. You have to go back to the top-heavy 2004 season to find a home sweep on Divisional weekend.

AFC Preview

At well over 7,000 words, I think I’ve done my share of analysis on the AFC games, so please click here to read that if you haven’t.

What I will do here is share opinions as a fan for these games, since they obviously mean more to me than the NFC games. I’m not afraid to admit I am pulling hard for a Colts-Broncos AFC Championship, but I feel like it’s the least likely scenario. After having to watch Ravens-Patriots the last two years, I could use a true rooting interest next week (and in the Super Bowl). Yet I feel like we’re headed for Chargers-Patriots, and I just hope Philip Rivers gets through the weekend with his knee ligaments intact so that game’s not compromised again.

“And the captain’s abandoned ship. Can you believe it? No! They had to. No! It won’t do. It’s hard to swim when lies will drown you.” – Stop It!!

Yes, I essentially picked the Denver Broncos to win Super Bowl XLVIII the moment Super Bowl XLVII ended. I picked Denver in April. I picked them in August and in the first week of September when I made my season predictions. Now prior to their first playoff game, I am siding with the Chargers to knock them out.

Jameis Winston asked me why I’m picking San Diego. He said, or I said, not even my cousin in THE AFGHANISTAN said he can believe I’m picking San Diego. Is my confidence strong with this pick? No, but I said we strong. He said we strong then. San Diego strong.

All jokes aside, the real question is at what point am I allowed to change my mind based on new information?

Part of the reason I liked Denver was the potential of the defense, which had a solid 2012 performance. They don’t have to be a dominant force for this team to go the distance given the offense, but they can’t be a liability. Based on the last four months, I see a postseason liability and I see the unit’s best player, Von Miller, sidelined for the year with a torn ACL. Miller returning from his suspension and being a dominant force to lead the defense, which of course also lost Elvis Dumervil over a fax fiasco, was part of my expectations for Denver. That’s gone.

What’s left is a pass-happy offensive juggernaut, and everything I have learned about NFL history tells me such a team fails in the postseason, because the defense has to come through too, and unless you’re the 1999 Rams, so does the running game at least once. The loss may not be on Sunday, but winning a Super Bowl will be very difficult for this team without some significant changes in performance. No one can do it winning 35-31 every week in the playoffs and I see Denver having to do that twice just to get to New Jersey.

I would probably be talking about things much differently if the Broncos were facing Kansas City or Indianapolis this week, but it’s San Diego and that’s a problem as I detailed in my preview. Now this isn’t a reliable opponent, but I feel like I know a Peyton Manning team very well through years of analysis. I can usually pick out on the schedule in April which games will be difficult for his team to win. Yes, he’s changed cities, coaches and teammates, but he puts his stamp on a team unlike anyone else.

Being the most consistent player in NFL history, running basically the same offense his whole career and being tied to flawed defenses, it all creates for a lot of consistency in how certain opponents play Manning’s team. Two of Denver’s three losses this year coming against New England and San Diego are no surprise at all. For the Chargers to win it has to come as it usually does: win the trenches, win the field position battle, own the running game and get those mistakes from Manning’s passing game any way they can. This team is built to do that and the Broncos are not the highly efficient juggernaut their 26-6 record suggests the last two years. They are only -1 in turnover differential, which is absurd when you consider New England (+34) and Seattle (+33) in that department since 2012.

So much of the game is about red zone and turnovers. Denver’s great in the red zone, but must stop fumbling the football and get some more takeaways.

Am I going too historical on this one? I don’t think so. There’s an interesting 10-game sample of the Chargers against Manning — defensive coordinator John Pagano was on defensive staff for all 10 games — and we see a lot of the same things happen regardless of all the changing parts. Forcing a one-dimensional passing attack while Philip Rivers turns into more of a game manager to control the clock with the run is one of the biggest parts of the plan. Some damn good luck has worked too.

To counter myself, let’s recall the setting of a playoff game in the 2003 AFC Wild Card between Manning’s Colts and the Denver Broncos. In Week 16, Denver went on the road as a 6.5-point underdog in a prime-time game and dominated the clock, holding the ball for 44:58. Manning only threw for 146 yards and the offense scored 10 points on 8 drives. Denver won 31-17. Now I don’t recall the specific chatter two weeks later in the postseason other than “when’s Peyton Manning going to win a playoff game?!”. The game was in Indianapolis again, but the Broncos were only a 3-point underdog this time and came in with confidence of dominating there. Well, Manning went 16-of-18 for 327 yards and 4 TDs in the first half to build a 31-3 lead on the way to an easy win.

So much for the road underdog having confidence from a few weeks ago. I doubt we see that type of history repeat itself, but I’ll feel pretty foolish if it does. At least I’ll be a satisfied fool.

I hate to even get into the “Manning’s 9-11 in the playoffs; eight one-and-dones!” thing before he takes the field this postseason, but I feel like I wrote a pretty definitive article about eight of those losses last year. I’ve read some pretty bad articles this week about the topic. I know I’ll have more to write about Manning and other quarterbacks in the coming weeks.

I was going to conclude with a rant about how sometimes I start to believe the critics are onto something. Maybe Manning is too robotic/over-studied for the playoffs and that’s holding him back in the big moments. But then I just slap myself with the dose of reality that seven of the guy’s one-and-done postseasons were by a combined margin of 26 points and none of the most critical, game-changing plays in those seven games was a mistake he made.

So that rant can wait another day, because there’s no shortage of idiocy during the postseason to refute.

Saints at Seahawks

The more I think about Seattle’s 34-7 thrashing of New Orleans over a month ago, the more I think we’re going to get a much better game this week. Let’s not forget there was an unfortunate bounce in good field position on the Brees fumble that became a touchdown return. While Brees is no stranger to turning the ball over on the road, that quick score and 10-0 deficit really drove the crowd wild in the way a turnover 50 yards down the field that just gives Seattle the ball in a 3-0 game would not have done. Then in the third quarter the Seahawks got that crazy bounce on a touchdown to Derrick Coleman. It was just Seattle’s night, but it’s 0-0 starting on Saturday.

I’m not sure the Saints are getting enough respect in this game. Yes, the road woes are worth mentioning, but any time you’re talking about one of the best coaches and quarterbacks in the league, any game can be had with a brilliant performance. But the Saints aren’t likely to get brilliance from Brees against the league’s best pass defense.

Seattle’s only allowed more than 24 points twice at home in their last 24 home games. Both of those games were in 2011 before this was a playoff team. That also includes a 34-12 loss to the 2011 Bengals in which Cincinnati scored two return touchdowns. This defense is very difficult to score on, especially at home. The key to doing it is to have great talent at wide receiver to match up with those cornerbacks. The Saints are lacking a bit in that department this year, so boxing up tight end Jimmy Graham with size and safety help from this Seattle secondary makes that a less than favorable matchup for New Orleans compared to most weeks.

That’s why the key to the game will be to win the rushing battle in the way New Orleans surprisingly did against Philadelphia on the road. If there’s a vulnerability to the Seattle defense, it would be stopping the run. On the other side, the Saints did a very good job against LeSean McCoy and the No. 1 rush offense. They also shut down Marshawn Lynch on MNF, holding him to 45 yards on 16 carries. Lynch has quietly had some poor games down the stretch this season, only topping 4.0 YPC once in his last six outings.

So I’m not concerned with Lynch running all over the Saints. Russell Wilson is the problem. He was so effective on the move in the first meeting and he really does that every week, but was especially deadly that night. Wilson holds onto the ball a lot, so the Saints have to find a way to make him pay. I think Rob Ryan should dial back the blitz and try to make Wilson overthink what he’s seeing. This is not the greatest receiving corps in the playoffs and I’m not expecting a ton from Percy Harvin in his return to the lineup. Make Wilson hold the ball, plaster the receivers and the defensive line needs to play a hell of a game.

If the Saints are going to win this game, it’s going to be about helping Brees with the support of a running game so he doesn’t have to be perfect, not letting Lynch dominate and keeping Wilson’s big plays down. It’s not helping New Orleans with Kenny Vaccaro out at safety. Roman Harper would like to burn every tape of the last performance he had in Seattle in the playoffs.

But if Seattle’s going to lose in the playoffs, it’s going to be on the offense having a low-scoring day. I don’t see the Saints being the team to force them into one.

49ers at Panthers

This was a 10-9 game last time, but the 49ers are bringing more firepower for the rematch. Still, with these defenses, this is almost boringly predictable to be the weekend’s lowest-scoring game, and probably the closest for that reason. It could just come down to which mobile quarterback has the ball in his hands last.

ESPN had a good article on how both Colin Kaepernick and Cam Newton have beat up on bad defenses in 2013 and struggled with the good ones. Yeah, another 10-9 score wouldn’t be that shocking.

The resurgence of the Panthers at 12-4 has been framed incorrectly this season. Riverboat Ron is more of a legend than a producer of on-field results. I posted this on Twitter over a week ago, but the idea of Cam Newton regressing in 2012 is just as laughable as the idea he’s progressed in 2013:

What’s really changed is Carolina has gotten so much better on defense. Only the Saints have scored more than 24 points against the Panthers and that was in the Super Dome. I do think the front seven can give Kaepernick a lot of problems in this game. They already did in San Francisco when he couldn’t even break 100 yards passing. However, he is playing his best this season right now.

This game comes down to two glaring weaknesses for me. I think Jim Harbaugh is clearly the better head coach and while I expect points will be difficult to come by, I can’t ignore one glaring difference in the makeup of these teams:

Panthers have a great defensive front, but not much in the secondary. The 49ers are bringing Michael Crabtree, Vernon Davis and Anquan Boldin to the party.
49ers have a strong defense with no glaring unit weakness. The Panthers have an injured Steve Smith, Ted Ginn, Greg Olsen and Brandon LaFell.

If this was a back alley brawl, I might take the Carolina guys on Smith’s craziness alone, but for this game, give me the 49ers. Now Carolina has home-field advantage and that is going to be tough for the 49ers to go back on the road again from west to east for an early game, but I have to go with the better team.

Oh yeah, SF-CAR will be the 500th playoff game in NFL history. Equating that to the regular season would take you back to the final late afternoon kickoff in Week 1 of the 2012 season. Doesn’t sound like much, does it? Yet it feels like most NFL legacies are built around these few precious moments…

FINAL PREDICTIONS

Let’s just say my scores did not work out too well last week (2-2 too). Closest was Green Bay needing to score four fewer points to nail that game at 23-20.

Seahawks over Saints, 27-24
Patriots over Colts, 34-17
49ers over Panthers, 17-13
Chargers over Broncos, 34-28

If I have my first losing week of the season, I won’t mind.