Tag: NFL

NFL Conference Championship Predictions

~ Scott ~ 2 Comments

Part of me is happy the AFC game is on first Sunday, but I also feel like…wait, wasn’t this how I started the preview from two years ago? If you were hoping for an update to that one, then you’ll be disappointed. I did not write nearly as much today, though don’t worry. We’ll tackle some of this stuff very soon where anyone can read it.

New England at Denver

Naturally, I already wrote a 5,000-word preview for this game at FO, so please check that out. Read Aaron’s NFC preview here.

As for my personal thoughts on the game, I agree with the Patriots being a slight road favorite, but I really do not buy into the thought that they’re just going to walk all over the Broncos in Denver.

“Given the injuries both teams have had, the Patriots have to feel good about a rematch with Denver — but not so much if that rematch takes place in Mile High, their house of horrors.” – My words after Denver’s Week 12 overtime win. If we know anything about the NFL playoffs, it’s that home field and a top defense matter. That does not mean you win just by showing up, but I have a hard time seeing New England breeze by a Denver team that has three comeback wins from 14 points down this year and went 11-3 in close games. Even down 17-0 in Indianapolis, the Broncos made that 24-24 in the fourth quarter. The defense rarely let down outside of playing Pittsburgh, and that offense is built much differently from this New England attack.

I know it won’t happen, but if I was Wade Phillips, I would shrink the field and dare the Patriots to run the ball and throw deep passes. Focus the attention on Rob Gronkowski and Julian Edelman. If they beat you with Steven Jackson, James White, Brandon LaFell and Danny Amendola, then hats off to them, but I don’t think they can. Where defenses have problems is with the way the Patriots attack your weaknesses with their best players, getting them in favorable matchups with linebackers and safeties. That’s why I would shadow Edelman with Chris Harris, assuming he’s healthy enough for this matchup. I would use Aqib Talib at times on Gronkowski just to get a better athlete on him. I’d make the ball go elsewhere, and I don’t think the Patriots can do their ultra-pass happy attack on the road as well as they do it at home. I hate Denver’s “IN-COM-PLETE!” chant, but the crowd noise is a factor and the altitude tends to become a factor later in the game. Denver also could use a really huge (legal) hit early in the game on someone like Edelman just to set a tone for the day. Tackling well is going to be key.

We know Peyton Manning is 5-11 in the games against Brady, but nothing would be more satisfying than to retire with a 3-2 playoff record given we’ve heard for the last 12 years how only the playoffs matter. The problem is Manning had to play his ass off in those five wins against Bill Belichick’s defense. He threw for 321, 326, 349, 327 and 400 yards in those games with his teams scoring 40, 27, 38, 35 and 26 points. If you’ve watched Manning since December 2014, he just does not seem capable of having those games anymore. This offense also isn’t good enough to get those types of performances from him anymore, which is why they have to scrap with the running game, take what the defense gives them and protect the ball. This game could only get out of hand with a multi-turnover day.

I compared this to a role reversal of the 2003 AFC Championship game where it’s now Manning leaning on his great defense while Brady leads the prolific passing game. We could see that, or it could be like the 2004 AFC Championship Game, the only time in nine tries that Tom Brady had a great game in this round. That year the Steelers beat New England in the regular season, but Deion Branch and Corey Dillon were out that day. In the rematch in Pittsburgh, those two players were big and Ben Roethlisberger (rookie year) made some costly mistakes early with interceptions. New England won 41-27. Maybe the return of Edelman and some other players out from the Week 12 matchup leads to a similar turnaround, but these teams are both as healthy as they have been in a while.

The Bill Belichick vs. Gary Kubiak matchup just does not sit well with me, and while I expect the Denver offense to be sharper than last week’s sloppy seven-drop effort, I’m not sure it can score enough points without a New England turnover fest. The Patriots have not had more than two turnovers in any game this year while the Broncos have oddly only forced seven takeaways at home (21 on the road). But if the top-ranked pressure defense can get after Brady enough, this one should be close and winnable for Denver like most games this season.

Carolina at Arizona

As nice as a third meeting between Arizona and Seattle could have been, this is the right NFC Championship Game for this season. These teams last met in the 2014 NFC Wild Card, but you can burn that tape since it’s infected with Ryan Lindley disease. These teams are much better than they were that evening.

I was nervous about Arizona more than any other team last week, and sure enough they had a very shaky game against Green Bay, but deserve credit for pulling it out behind a monster effort from Larry Fitzgerald. I hate to say a guy raises his game in the playoffs since it infers he’s not giving full effort the rest of the year, but Fitzgerald’s postseason resume has been incredible. He’ll need to be big again here, but this game really comes down to how well Carson Palmer is protected and his decision making. Palmer and Cam Newton are two of the most blitzed quarterbacks in the league in 2015, but Palmer actually had better stats under pressure and was pressured a little more often than Newton. The problem is he does not have a track record of doing well under pressure like a Ben Roethlisberger does. You saw him throw some really questionable passes last week against Green Bay, and he should have had multiple red-zone interceptions in the fourth quarter alone. His first go-ahead touchdown was a lucky deflection. If you saw the way Carolina’s front seven — and it sucks that Jared Allen got hurt, but I don’t view him as a big-time player anymore — lived in Russell Wilson’s face early last week and forced some big interceptions, I definitely fear for what Palmer might do this week. David Johnson has also been shut down against Seattle and Green Bay, and the Carolina front seven is arguably better than both. Throw in a field that may be crappy and the fact that it’s Palmer’s first road playoff start (and the biggest game of his career), and you could have a struggling passing game.

Fortunately, Carolina has a problem in the secondary after some late-season injuries, and has struggled to keep some big leads this year. As Indy, Green Bay, Giants and Seattle showed, if you have a good quarterback and some receiving talent, you can rally against this defense. The Cardinals have that with the three wide receivers to attack this secondary. Fitzgerald spends a lot of time in the slot, which means he won’t see much of Josh Norman. That’s a great matchup for Arizona to exploit this week, but Palmer must be sharper and they have to get more out of the running game for sure. But even if Carolina goes up big again, don’t count out this offense. It can score in bunches quickly.

On the other side of the ball, this is a matchup where Arizona will really miss versatile safety Tyrann Mathieu. He’s one of the few guys athletic enough to keep up with Newton as a blitzer, and we know Arizona blitzes an NFL-high 45.1% of the time this year (source: ESPN Stats & Info). The Cardinals may want to dial it back this week, though definitely get an athlete like Deone Bucannon after Newton. This is not a deep receiving corps. Patrick Peterson should be able to shut down his assignment, whether it’s Ted Ginn, who may be compromised by a Week 16 injury, or the likes of Jerricho Cotchery and Devin Funchess. Greg Olsen could be a problem, though Arizona ranked 7th against tight ends.

Carolina is the most run-based offense left, and that includes Newton’s rushing contributions. Seattle kept him under wraps pretty good last week, and I would expect the same from Arizona. The problem lately has been standard runs as Christine Michael and Eddie Lacy (should have had more yards) played well the last two weeks against Arizona. You know the Panthers will feed Jonathan Stewart the ball and he just broke a season-long 59-yard run last week against Seattle. I think the weather and field will favor the more physical team, and by no means is Arizona soft, but I think Carolina may just come out more physical after getting pissed about last week’s 24-0 second half from Seattle. This team needs to finish a game strong for a change. We know Arizona can as Bruce Arians is 31-1 in games where he has to protect a one-score lead in the fourth quarter.

Newton can bait a defense with the read-option and play-action, so if Arizona blitzes, they better not hesitate at the mesh point or you might see some receivers running wide open down the field. But I really would not blitz much in this one, making Newton hold the ball and think about it as this secondary should hold up against these receivers. The Panthers are not a high-efficiency passing offense. Newton is looking for big plays and has generally avoided the turnovers this year.

I would pick Arizona on a neutral field, but that’s not how this works.

FINAL PREDICTIONS

Another 3-1 week, though I actually nailed the PIT-DEN score.

  • Patriots over Broncos, 23-17
  • Panthers over Cardinals, 27-21

Season Results

  • Week 1: 10-6
  • Week 2: 6-10
  • Week 3: 14-2
  • Week 4: 11-4
  • Week 5: 9-5
  • Week 6: 8-6
  • Week 7: 10-4
  • Week 8: 10-4
  • Week 9: 8-5
  • Week 10: 4-10
  • Week 11: 9-5
  • Week 12: 8-8
  • Week 13: 11-5
  • Week 14: 10-6
  • Week 15: 11-5
  • Week 16: 9-7
  • Week 17: 8-8
  • Wild Card: 3-1
  • Divisional round: 3-1
  • Season: 162-102 (.614)

2015 NFL Wild Card Predictions

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

This weekend probably more than any is where you try to weigh the value of full-season statistics vs. recent performance when a team is playing much differently, such as in the cases of Chiefs-Texans and Packers-Redskins.

We can’t just ignore Green Bay started 6-0, but man that sure feels like a long time ago based on the way the last 10 games went. To some extent we’ve seen a turnaround from Minnesota too, but the last awful performance was unfortunately against this same Seattle opponent coming back to the scene of its 38-7 assault. But we also have a multi-year trend of Seattle blowing fourth-quarter leads, so that 2-4 start was not as shocking as it appears now. Seattle is a little more vulnerable than it was heading into the playoffs the previous three years in my opinion. Then you have a team like Cincinnati playing without its starting quarterback after a career season from Andy Dalton. Is it fair to put the same lofty offensive expectations on AJ McCarron? Of course not. Likewise, the data on the Pittsburgh running game basically gets thrown out the window with DeAngelo Williams unable to go this week after an ankle injury. Do we worry about a one-dimensional Pittsburgh offense given that Ben Roethlisberger hasn’t had a stellar playoff game in five years and has his highest interception rate since he was 24 years old?

Then there is the process of tuning out the narrative-driven bullshit from the media at playoff time.

“The Chiefs have all the momentum; 10 wins in a row!” – Yeah, and the last four teams to enter the playoffs on a winning streak of 10-11 games all went one-and-done, and they were at home even. The last time the Chiefs won a playoff game, I had yet to watch a full NFL game in my life.

“Pittsburgh is the scariest team in the AFC; no one wants to play them!” – The 2015 Ravens wouldn’t mind, seeing as how two of their five wins came against this team, including Week 16 with a lot on the line. We do realize the Bengals are the 12-4 home team with better balance, right?

“Cancel the tournament, Seattle has already won according to big dog Mike Silver!” – Backwards-Hat Jeff Fisher would like to remind you he swept this team, including a Week 16 win with Case Keenum barely doing anything on the road. Think Teddy Bridgewater can hand off to Adrian Peterson at home in the bitter cold?

“Green Bay just sucks this year; how you like that!?” – Well, this one might be true, but I’ll be damned if I’m going to just start trusting the Washington Redskins to take care of business. What happened to our season-long ridicule of the NFC East?

But since this is the playoffs, people will boast about being proven right by the win-loss outcome even if they had all the wrong reasons. Let the play on the field this weekend speak for itself. What happened in Week 1 or last week really doesn’t matter at this point. The teams that play better on Saturday and Sunday will move on.

Chiefs at Texans

I wrote a good 4,300 words on this game as my preview at FO, so please check that out along with our other wild-card previews. We put a lot of work into them, including 1994 Royal Rumble references.

Houston has a fighting chance thanks to home-field advantage and having the best player on the field (J.J. Watt). You won’t impress me with AFC South wins, but holding Drew Brees and the Bengals to 6 points each was impressive. If the defense can keep this limited KC offense to 10 points, they definitely have a shot here. I just think Brian Hoyer’s struggles while pressured against a strong defense are going to put the Houston defense in a few bad spots for field position and that will be the difference again. But I’ll be pretty surprised if this isn’t low scoring.

Steelers at Bengals

You can probably look up my blog entries from the last few years and find me pointing out each time that Marvin Lewis is just 2-12 at home against the Steelers in his career. That’s incredible. I’ve come to expect Pittsburgh to play well in this building, and for the Bengals to play better in Pittsburgh. That’s just how it has been for a dozen years, and sure enough, the road team won each game this season. What seems to be the main difference for Pittsburgh is the play of Ben Roethlisberger. His numbers are much better in Cincinnati than they are at home against the Bengals, and again, we’re talking about over a sample size of 12 years and 25 games.

benroeth

The comp. % and YPA alone are big, but obviously the interceptions are the key difference. Roethlisberger has never thrown more than one interception in the 13 road games. He has five multi-INT games at home, including some of his worst home games ever. Now does he play better in Cincy because the team is playing better, or does the team play better because he is much more efficient? That’s a little chicken-or-the-egg dilemma, but Roethlisberger obviously has to show up big, which is not something he’s really done in the postseason since the 2010 AFC Divisional against Baltimore. Even that game had a bad first half to it.

For all the hype about Pittsburgh’s offense, 17 of its 28 turnovers have come on the road this year (at least one in every game). That could be a big problem. Roethlisberger has 5 TD to 9 INT on the road this year, though his other numbers look great. He’ll have to protect the ball better.

The other troublesome part here is Roethlisberger has not played that well against the Cincinnati defense this season, and he will likely have little support from a running game since DeAngelo Williams is out. Incredibly, this is the fourth time since 2007 that Mike Tomlin and Roethlisberger go to the playoffs after losing the lead running back to injury in Week 16 or 17.

Pittsburgh went one-and-done the previous three times, though I would not put any of the losses squarely on the running game. Isaac Redman did a solid job in Denver in 2011, but Ben had a high ankle sprain to deal with and Dick LeBeau drew up an embarrassing defense for “Him” to throw for 316 yards on 10 completions. Let’s not even go there right now. Bad memories. I also cannot blame the Steelers this year for not having a backup plan since DeAngelo was the backup (and was excellent) to Le’Veon Bell, who also was lost this season. That also reminds me of something. Cincinnati fans point to the Bengals losing Andy Dalton and Tyler Eifert in Week 14, but in the first meeting this year, Roethlisberger was rusty in his return from injury and Bell went out early in the second quarter. So both teams have had some big injuries in the loss. Hopefully this game is the healthiest one yet.

I just do not have good expectations for Fitzgerald Toussaint, though it’s not like the offensive line stinks anymore. I think a pass-heavy approach like the Steelers used against Denver and Seattle, two superior pass defenses to the Bengals, should be the game plan here. Live and die by Ben’s arm with this receiving corps. I did not get the sense the Bengals have an answer for Antonio Brown based on that last game. I also think Markus Wheaton is gaining more confidence, Heath Miller has two 10-catch games vs. CIN this year, and Martavis Bryant, if healthy, will react well to the “call out” from Ben to play tougher. The offense has to be smart and take what’s there this game instead of forcing deep shots. The Bengals rank 1st against deep passes (thrown 15+ yards) and 27th against short passes. Let’s not overthink this. Be smart, Todd Haley.

Cincinnati’s defense is really the key to this game. If it plays well, the Bengals are likely to win. If this gets into a track meet, I’m not sure AJ McCarron won’t screw up enough times to blow the game. Marvin Lewis has gotten nothing out of his offense in six playoff games (never more than 17 points), so I’m curious to see how that pans out here. The drop-off from Dalton to McCarron is not as huge as it would be for some of these other playoff teams, but there is one. McCarron’s lack of experience causes him to hold the ball longer and be less decisive. That will open him up to more pressure, more sacks and takeaway opportunities. McCarron threw a really awful pick-six on a delayed play to William Gay in the last meeting. He should play better with more experience and prep, and he has a nice cast around him of receivers. I expect A.J. Green to play big, especially if Antwon Blake is anywhere near him. Well, that’s assuming Blake can catch up to Green after he’s beat after his 8-yard cushion. I don’t expect Jeremy Hill and the running game to do much, so McCarron will have to make plays against a defense that is totally reliant on takeaways and red-zone stops. On a per-drive basis, Pittsburgh’s defense is 13th in points allowed, 7th in takeaways, 3rd in red zone and 26th at forcing punts/three-and-outs. Pittsburgh only has 10 takeaways in 8 road games, though got a big trio of them in Cincinnati.

This does feel a little similar to last year when the Steelers lost to the Ravens. Pittsburgh brings the better quarterback, but the Bengals have a more balanced roster and can win the game in a greater variety of ways. I made the mistake of trusting the Steelers last year, though I also think Baltimore’s coaching and big-game history trumps that of the Bengals, who have a lot to prove here. A win would be huge for this franchise. I just wish it was Dalton getting the opportunity to do it for them.

Seahawks at Vikings

This is the game I have the least to say about, because I frankly just think Seattle has always been the better team this year and should win. Yes, it is really dumb that the NFL scheduled this for 10:00 A.M. PST, but I don’t buy that as a great excuse if Seattle doesn’t play well. They played at this time in the 38-7 beatdown in Week 13 in Minnesota. And how do you not get ready for a playoff game? It’s the season on the line.

This should be one of the coldest games in NFL history, so hey, great f’n timing on the roofed stadium, Minnesota. One year too late. But I don’t think the playing surface will be bothered and both teams should be able to run their usual offense, which is a lot of physical running anyway.

I just think Russell Wilson will handle the adversity and elements better than Teddy Bridgewater, who has been pedestrian for much of the year. Wilson won’t be as spectacular as he has been, though I don’t think he needs to be. I don’t see the Vikings scoring many points at all here. They were shut out the last game with Cordarrelle Patterson providing the only points on a return touchdown. This offense is just too limited to attack Seattle’s defense and the Seahawks can go all in at stopping Adrian Peterson, who hasn’t had many great games down the stretch here. It sucks that we won’t be seeing Marshawn Lynch in this one, but I think the Seahawks will manage in a game that might need the cold element to stay interesting since I think it will be the weekend’s most boring watch. Al Michaels might need thawed out by the fourth quarter.

However, I would warn that Seattle fans better hope the team’s head isn’t getting too big after all the hype following that domination in Arizona. You still have three road games to get to another Super Bowl, and Mike Zimmer is a tough coach. He’ll have his guys ready to hit in the cold and all it takes is a few fumbles to turn a game like this one. The hype, the early start time, the Lynch downgrade, the fact that Minnesota is playing much better since the last meeting…it all adds up for me to expect a much closer game than 38-7, but I still think Seattle should win. If they lose, we know it won’t be clinched until the final minute of the game.

Packers at Redskins

This is the weekend’s most volatile game. Stay away, gamblers, because you just don’t know if Aaron Rodgers will throw five touchdowns or if the Redskins will win by 17. Okay, both of those outcomes are pretty far-fetched, but I would be very careful about trusting either team in this one.

When you look at the stats this season, you’ll swear someone switched Aaron Rodgers’ stat line with Kirk Cousins’. I never thought we’d see Rodgers under 7 YPA until his old-man decline stage, but he finished the season at 6.68 YPA as Green Bay’s offense has really struggled for 13 games now. He’s at a horrific 5.97 YPA over the last 10 games, and that’s boosted a little by that Hail Mary in Detroit that shouldn’t have happened, dropping Green Bay to 3-7 in its last 10 games instead of 4-6. Rodgers just had the 5th-largest decline in YPA (2.22) in the last 10 games of a season vs. first 6 games since 1978.

Coinciding with Green Bay’s 10-game slump is Cousins’ “You like that!” moment in the comeback win over Tampa Bay. In the last 10 games, Cousins leads the NFL in completion percentage (72.38%) and YPA (8.72). He has 23 touchdowns to 3 INT, which again, looks like MVP-form Aaron Rodgers. This is crazy stuff, but I still have a hard time trusting him. Interceptions were his red flag coming into the season, and he threw multiple picks in four of the first six games before this hot streak. Did he turn the corner as a still relatively young quarterback, or is this just a hot streak against a soft schedule? Out of Washington’s 9 wins, the Bills had the best record at 8-8, and Rex Ryan’s defense was a huge disappointment this year. Cousins is pretty decisive. He gets rid of the ball quickly and with good short-throw accuracy, so he takes very few hits. He can hit some impressive passes down the field, but he’s not exactly Rodgers in the arm department despite the Rodgers-esque stat line. I think Jay Gruden is doing a fine job with Cousins and he’ll be more likely to continue his success for Washington than the smoke and mirrors of Robert Griffin’s rookie season, but I’m still a bit skeptical about him ever repeating these numbers again. It reminds me of where I stood on Nick Foles after 2013, though I don’t think Cousins will sink that low.

Can I see Cousins getting into some interception trouble and getting sacked a few times in this one from a Green Bay defense that is really the best part of the team? Yes, I sure can. And I think it will be necessary for Green Bay to win, because the offense cannot be trusted anymore. You know how I feel about Rodgers playing from behind, and I think that strengthens his slump this year since he’s not getting the hot start he wants, so Mike McCarthy struggles to adjust and games just snowball from there. That Arizona game was a disaster; easily one of the worst performances of Rodgers’ career. Washington can’t do that to him, but I think they’ll be stout against an unreliable running game and amp up the pass rush on Rodgers. James Jones might have a good game on broken plays, but you flat out cannot trust Randall Cobb at this point. Calling him a No. 2 wide receiver right now would be an excessive compliment.

In the way that Colin Kaepernick seemingly “let it all hang out” in the playoffs with his running a few years ago, I think Rodgers may have to scramble more in this game to make plays for his offense. That’s either scrambles for yards or to extend plays for some backyard football. There is no next week if you lose, so why not go all out? The traditional Green Bay offense is broken, and I don’t think simply adding Jordy Nelson is going to cure everything in 2016. The Packers will need to make some changes in the offseason, but winning a playoff game after this sustained stretch of poor play would be some achievement.

FINAL PREDICTIONS

There have been four seasons in NFL history (2004, 2005, 2010, 2013) where 3 road teams won on wild-card weekend, but never a year with four. The closest we came was in 2013 given the only home winner (Colts) had to come back from a 38-10 deficit. Hey, Chiefs. I feel like this slate has solid potential for four road winners, but I’m not going to pick it to happen.

  • Chiefs over Texans, 20-16
  • Steelers over Bengals, 23-16
  • Seahawks over Vikings, 17-6
  • Redskins over Packers, 27-20

Season Results

  • Week 1: 10-6
  • Week 2: 6-10
  • Week 3: 14-2
  • Week 4: 11-4
  • Week 5: 9-5
  • Week 6: 8-6
  • Week 7: 10-4
  • Week 8: 10-4
  • Week 9: 8-5
  • Week 10: 4-10
  • Week 11: 9-5
  • Week 12: 8-8
  • Week 13: 11-5
  • Week 14: 10-6
  • Week 15: 11-5
  • Week 16: 9-7
  • Week 17: 8-8
  • Season: 156-100 (.609)

This might have been my worst record since I started picking games a decade ago. Last season was one of my best.

The Top 64 Quarterbacks in NFL History (2015 Edition) – Part I

~ Scott ~ 25 Comments

This definitely won’t be short. However, I’m not wasting any time in showing you my updated list of the 64 greatest quarterbacks in NFL history.

top64QB15

This is not created with a formula. I put everything I’ve learned and experienced from over a decade of research into creating this ranking. The only things I do not factor in are college career and time spent in other professional leagues like the AAFC, USFL, CFL, XFL, Arena, etc. So you’re still just a one-year wonder to me, Tommy Maddox.

Some players moved around from the 2014 edition, posted last August. So why is this going to be written in two parts on my blog? I figured some people won’t want to scroll through the epic length of Manning vs. Brady to read about the other players. For those who want to see the irrational debate rationalized, I promise Part II is worth the wait.

This might actually be the first time I have formally written about my list of the 64 greatest quarterbacks in NFL history. It was a personal project I started six years ago in an effort to figure out where Ben Roethlisberger stood historically after his fifth season (2008). Such rankings are subjective of course, but sports wouldn’t be the same without this stuff. Even if “that’s your opinion!” means you can’t objectively prove Roethlisberger is a better QB than Neil O’Donnell, Kordell Stewart, Mark Malone and Bubby Brister, you damn sure can make a convincing argument why he is better.

Just look at my list. Once you get past 30 or so, you’re looking at guys who maybe had six quality seasons, or a phenomenal four-year run like Rich Gannon (1999-2002) in Oakland. There aren’t many quarterbacks who sustained greatness over a long period of time in the NFL’s 95-year history. A total of 221 players have thrown at least 1,000 passes in the regular season in NFL history. Unless you mostly played before 1932 (Benny Friedman), are the latest hot rookie/sophomore (Teddy Bridgewater), or your name is Greg Cook or Cecil Isbell, you’re not even relevant from an all-time perspective. A thousand passes is about two seasons these days for a starter. Even the Browns let Derek Anderson throw 992 passes in 2007-09.

My method was to move up the list of all-time attempts, picking out which quarterbacks Roethlisberger was clearly better than, and grouping those he still has to surpass. A few years later I did something very similar to gauge where Joe Flacco stood after his fifth season (2012) led to the destruction of the QB salary market. Since then I’ve had a more concrete list and have updated it annually before the new season. The following explains some of my thought process, especially for the active players.

Five Actives in the Top 15 OF ALL TIME!?!?

I know some people are wondering how I could possibly think five of the 15 greatest QBs in NFL history are playing right now. Well, from 1991-94 we had Montana, Marino, Favre, Young and Elway active. That’s five of my top eight, so there*. Throw in Aikman, Kelly and Moon, and that’s eight of my top 28. It clearly can be done, and I think this has been a golden age of passing that’s not likely to be matched any time soon.

*Counter (because I know how to argue with myself): But Scott, were those five guys worthy of the top eight in 1991-94? This is a fair point. I don’t think Favre and Young were thru 1994, though both were well on their way. I think you could definitely have ranked Montana, Marino and Elway that high by then. My list thru 1994 would look something like Montana, Unitas, Marino, Staubach, Baugh, Tarkenton, Graham, Elway (ahead of Starr and Bradshaw). So yeah, three in the top eight with Young coming off his 6 TDs in the Super Bowl/2nd MVP award and Favre just getting ready for a 3-MVP run. This is legit.

Are the modern rules and modern medicine making it easier to sustain QB success in the NFL? I hesitate to say yes to that, because look at how many quarterbacks can’t sustain their success. Robert Griffin III had his one good year, but has been a disaster ever since. Josh Freeman (2010) can kind of relate, and I hate to see the path Colin Kaepernick is starting to head down after such early promise. Matt Schaub crumbled in 2013 after Richard Sherman picked off his confidence. Carson Palmer has fallen apart a few times, literally and figuratively. Michael Vick was never consistent and managed to have his best years four years apart (2002, 2006 and 2010). Jay Cutler and Cam Newton still can’t hit a 90.0 passer rating season in an era where it’s become common to do so. Matthew Stafford’s pretty much in the same tier, starring as the volume-heavy Drew Bledsoe of his era. Highly drafted quarterbacks are still flopping hard too (see: JaMarcus Russell, Brady Quinn, Joey Harrington, Matt Leinart, Blaine Gabbert, Christian Ponder, Jake Locker, etc.). Are rookie QBs overall more successful now? Sure, but they’re also getting more opportunities as of 2008. Try telling Blake Bortles and Derek Carr this is an easy game.

QBHOFCB

Where are all the great quarterbacks coming into the NFL since 2006? We’ve seen dips before, but this is starting to get alarming. Andrew Luck and Russell Wilson look like the best options, and I obviously think highly of Flacco and Ryan’s seven-year starts, but that’s about it since 2006. Save us, Tannehill, Bridgewater, Mariota and Winston. We need to start having some insurance that this next era when these HOF passers are retired will still be good.

(B)rees, Rodgers, Roethlisberger

We have clearly been spoiled from watching the highest level of sustained QB play in NFL history. We’ve known about “1812” for so long now, but the consistency of Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers and Ben Roethlisberger is also special. Brees broke out in 2004, the rookie season breakout for Ben. Rodgers didn’t get to start until 2008, but I think he just locked up his spot in Canton after his second MVP season in 2014. No, it wasn’t as good as his 2011, but it was another monster year of dominant efficiency and it moved him up from 26th to 14th for me. Roethlisberger is the first great QB I can say I’ve been able to watch every game of his career live. You could definitely make the claim 2014 was his finest season yet. He’ll always be the first quarterback to have multiple 500-yard passing games, and the first to have back-to-back games with six touchdown passes. All of those games were against teams that made the playoffs.

The reasons I keep Brees ahead at 13th are that I think this 11-year run he’s been on (zero starts missed due to injury) is incredible, and he has quite arguably been better in the playoffs than the other two. He just needs to get there with more consistency, though he’s gotten the short end of the stick defensively when it comes to that top five active group. Brees was still great in 2014, but he had some bad decisions at important times. I don’t think he’s done yet by any means, though I question how much higher I could rank him on this list. He might be fifth in his era when it’s all said and done. That’s really not an insult either. This group is simply special.

Some might even put Rodgers higher than 14th, but I think that’s pretty generous for someone who has been a starter for seven years, including a debut season that was more solid than spectacular (2008) and a half-season due to injury (2013). Rodgers’ stats look off the charts right now, but that’s also the benefit of having 100 percent peak performance in this era of great stats. When you look at advanced metrics, especially ones that include sacks, Rodgers is much closer to his peers. Rodgers has led the league in Total QBR one time (2011) and in passing DVOA two times (2011 and 2014).

Any mainstream criticism of Rodgers is almost nonexistent, but I expect that to change if he continues to not shine in January as has been the case since he won a Super Bowl in 2010. His struggles against the other NFC champions in that time have been troublesome, but the good news is the Giants and 49ers don’t look to be contenders any time soon. Seattle is the defense he has to figure out. And yes, I still think he struggles more than the other top quarterbacks when it comes to comebacks or having to win in different styles. If he doesn’t start a game well, I just don’t expect him to pull it together late. Winning ugly is not on the menu yet. He needs to come out with his ‘A’ game, and his ‘A’ game is pretty much as good as any quarterback’s that’s ever played in the NFL. When he’s on, he’s unstoppable. But when he’s off like in Buffalo and Detroit last year or against Seattle, he doesn’t impress.

But if these other guys ever retire soon and the young quarterbacks don’t pan out, Rodgers could enjoy a nice run at various league-leads and awards if his only real competition is Luck. Going forward, I worry a little about Rodgers’ durability, because he still takes some really bad sacks. It’s hard to believe this is already going to be his age-32 season. Health is about the only thing that could stop him from cracking the top 10 soon. If his next seven years are in line with the last seven, I expect to see Rodgers in my top five one day.

apvotes

The elite MVP seasons of Rodgers are what put him over Ben, who hasn’t had years like that yet. Amazingly, Roethlisberger has never received an All-Pro vote in his career. He’s also only had three seasons where he’s started all 16 games. The main problem is his best seasons (2007, 2009 and 2014) are years where a lot of quarterbacks were standouts, so it’s understandable why he didn’t get a vote. But considering Luck and Brady got AP votes last year, you could definitely argue Ben deserved one in 2014.

Roethlisberger is having an unusual career path. He had personal and team success immediately, but he’s been statistically better in the second half of his career when he’s had to pick up more of the slack. However, he hasn’t had much playoff success since the night he led that epic drive to beat Arizona in Super Bowl 43. This year the Steelers seem to be fielding their worst defense yet around Ben, which feels like an 8-8 season in the making. Basically, the Steelers are turning into the Saints, which is good for Ben’s fantasy numbers, but terrible for his playoff success. He definitely doesn’t need to get to another Super Bowl, but how is this thing going to end? Is he going through a rough team patch like 1992-95 Elway, only to get a better team around him at the end? Is he going to fade away like Aikman in Dallas, unable to keep the team consistently in the playoffs after their talent core declined? Is he going to have an abrupt ending after taking a shot so big he can’t recover from it?

I’ll end this section by explaining some of the decision to move Rodgers and Roethlisberger past the players previously ranked 14-25. Since most of us can agree Rodgers has had the more dominant career, we’ll just look at this from Ben’s standpoint.

Roethlisberger is entering his 12th year as a starter, which already puts him on a short list of QBs in NFL history. Jim Kelly played 11 NFL seasons. Are you really going to tell me Roethlisberger’s play in the regular season and postseason hasn’t exceeded Kelly’s? It’s not a huge difference, which is why there are only five players between them, but Roethlisberger has put together a better resume with more to come. Kurt Warner played 12 seasons, and we know only six of them really count for his HOF push. He had higher highs than Ben, but good lord did he have many lower lows.

Quarterback is a position where you need to be the full-time starter to have value for your team. This is why I don’t put much stock at all in partial seasons where a guy throws like 150 passes and wins some games off the bench, or makes four decent starts, or has a good seven-game stretch before a season-ending injury. Screw that. True value is found by suiting up every week year after year. Ben’s missed 17 games in his career for various reasons, but he’s found a way to start at least 12 games in every season. That’s important. If he does it in 2015, he’ll be the 10th QB with a dozen starts in at least a dozen different seasons. I factored this into a lot of my decisions here, as a guy like Len Dawson played 19 seasons, but you can basically chop off the first five and the last three, leaving 11 years (1962-1972). Do I think that stretch, largely done in the AFL, is more impressive than Roethlisberger’s 11 years? I don’t anymore, so I moved him past Dawson this year.

Similarly, I downplay Sid Luckman vs. Ben due to his peak coming in WWII seasons, and I don’t see any value in his final two seasons (1949-50). I downplay Norm Van Brocklin’s career for spending time in his prime in a two-QB system with Bob Waterfield and facing some suspect competition. For Y.A. Tittle, I really respect his 1961-63 seasons with the Giants, but he’s another guy with a ton of seasons you have to throw away due to the AAFC, injuries or him just being terrible (1964 swansong). He had about seven or eight really solid years overall, which again I think Roethlisberger has exceeded. So I moved him ahead of those guys.

When the worst thing you can point to in Roethlisberger’s career is his 2006 season, that’s very telling of the quality of his career. Yes, he threw 23 picks, but he still finished 10th in DYAR and 13th in DVOA. He dealt with a motorcycle accident, an emergency appendectomy and a concussion after he was getting back to form. If that’s the low point of your 11-year career, then you’re probably having a hell of a career. A lot of guys sink lower than that.

Which finally leads me to putting Ben (and Rodgers) ahead of Dan Fouts, Troy Aikman, Terry Bradshaw and Bart Starr. Let’s get Fouts of the way quickly. He was great for eight years (1978-1985) in a record-setting passing offense, which I really respect. That’s why he’s 19th. His other seven seasons and his lack of playoff success — started and ended with 5-INT games — are why he isn’t higher. That’s a good chunk of negative that you can’t just ignore, though I admittedly don’t do a good enough job of punishing for the bad years.

Speaking of bad years, Aikman, Bradshaw and Starr had several and it’s only fitting to talk about this trio together. In fact, Starr was almost worthless without Vince Lombardi as his head coach. Bradshaw is lucky Joe Gilliam was ineffective in 1974, because he may have lost his starting job for good after an (extended) awful start to his career. Aikman was one of the worst QBs in the NFL his first two years, and his finale (2000) was on that level. Yet all three were the quarterbacks of dynasties, the best teams in their decades with great players on both sides of the ball and fantastic coaching. They all won at least three titles and had some great efficiency stats in those playoff wins. These quarterbacks had some nice regular-season numbers at times, but the volume wasn’t there to match their peers. Unitas was better than Starr. Staubach was better than Bradshaw. Young and Favre were better than Aikman if we’re just talking 1990’s NFC. But #RINGZ.

When asked to carry flawed teams, these quarterbacks weren’t capable of getting the job done. When their team’s talent wasn’t up to the level of all-time great, they couldn’t get them into the playoffs with any consistency. Now I won’t slam these guys as much as I would a caretaker like Bob Griese — they’re still in my top 18 — but they just had easier jobs in their primes. Throwing the ball 30 or 40 times wasn’t the plan, let alone a necessity.

I think Roethlisberger would have more than two rings if he had the Steel Curtain defense instead of Dick LeBeau’s “My Defense Works for 75% of the Game Against 75% of the NFL” shtick. But just to start any game with an average team, I’m taking Roethlisberger over Bradshaw, Starr and Aikman. That trio was only effective for about 8-9 years each. Roethlisberger has already surpassed that.

But without a strong finish, I think Ben is going to be stuck at 15 until someone moves ahead of him, or if his play really declines. His career has essentially peaked from an all-time perspective, but as long as the story is still being written, there’s always a chance of changing your legacy. I just don’t think the Steelers are going to build another balanced team in time for him to do so.

Change of Heart: Tarkenton over Graham

The only other change in my top 30 was swapping Fran Tarkenton for Otto Graham. Given what I value in QBs, this should have been the case years ago. Career length is a big factor. Tarkenton was essentially a starting QB for 18 NFL seasons compared to just six for Graham. Remember, I don’t care about the AAFC. What’s amazing is how Tarkenton was such a model of consistency despite his chaotic, scrambling style — he had one below-average passing efficiency season (1962) in 18 years according to Pro-Football-Reference’s advanced tables that adjust for era. Despite all his running around, he was very durable and never had more than eight fumbles in a season. While he never had the stunning peak of a Tittle or Jurgensen, Tarkenton ranks as high as anyone when it comes to the number of quality QB seasons in the NFL. He was a star for nearly two decades, and he retired as the all-time leader in wins, passing yards and touchdown passes. In fact, he’s held the passing yardage record longer than any player in NFL history.

PYDREC

Tarkenton amassed those numbers without throwing more than 25 touchdowns to any player. John Gilliam was his top guy. Tarkenton excelled under multiple coaches and for multiple teams (Giants and Vikings). He might have been the first great one-man show at quarterback, but unfortunately those guys don’t win rings. With or without Tarkenton, Bud Grant’s Vikings great defense (“Purple People Eaters”) was routinely run over in big games. In his 1975 MVP season, Tarkenton lost at home in the playoffs to Dallas thanks to a 50-yard Hail Mary from Roger Staubach to Drew Pearson (push off?) in the final minute. It remains the only game-winning Hail Mary in NFL playoff history and it came at the expense of one of the game’s finest players.

When it comes to Otto Graham, the first thing people like to mention is he led the Browns to 10 championship games in his 10 seasons. It’s as if Graham was the only player in the AAFC, and he’s certainly the only player people ever choose to recognize the stats and accomplishments of from the AAFC. I just want to point out Graham won just as many NFL Championship Games (3) as he lost. Some of the losses were absolutely brutal too. We weren’t that far off from having Bobby Layne and the Lions as the dynasty of that time.

The truth is Graham was a great player on the league’s most loaded team (7-9 HOFers every year), with a great defense and a true innovator (Paul Brown) as his head coach. Players in such situations don’t get full credit from me, because their job was easier. I still think enough of Graham to rank him 12th, and he was the best quarterback of that era (1950-55). He also wasn’t just some caretaker as he won two passing yardage titles. When you rank first in NFL history in passing yards per attempt (8.63), albeit in six seasons, you’re going to earn my respect. I just wish we would stop padding the AAFC stuff onto his legacy, because that league was not up to par with the NFL, which actually drafted Graham in 1944 (Lions). He didn’t play then because of World War II.

Graham is a player I expect to keep dropping as some of the players in my previous section continue to have long, successful careers in a more competitive era.

Eli Manning: Why?

Every year I post this list one of the main responses is why is Eli Manning so high? It bothers me too, because he should be about 10 spots lower with the other New York guys and right there with Romo and Rivers. I just haven’t had the heart to move him since first putting him 29th after the 2012 season. He was a joke in 2013 and played much better last year, but the fact is the Giants have missed the playoffs in five of the last six seasons. Eli and the Giants are like leap year: they strike every four years in February. 2008, 2012, and uh-oh, 2016 is next. It would only be fitting for the Giants to start with a bang (JPP), end with a bang (third title…Odell Beckham Jr. one-handed catch to beat New England of course) and for Eli to become the highest-paid player in NFL history.

At least that scenario would help keep my sanity about ranking him this high. Eli really is frustrating because you see the moments of older brother-like brilliance, but then you see the plays that would make Archie shake his head. Eli’s always been very good in 4QC/GWD situations, and I still think he engineered the greatest drive in NFL history with everything at stake in Super Bowl 42. The fact that he starts every single game cannot be undervalued either. It’s not easy to have 10 straight 3,000-yard passing seasons in the NFL. Only six other quarterbacks have had more such years. I think Eli’s 2011 season was one of the finest jobs of a QB carrying his team that we’ve seen, and even then it was a 9-7 year that barely resulted in a division title. Eli just doesn’t have the same efficiency as his peers, though his offenses do well at scoring and he doesn’t take many sacks.

If Eli’s playoff record remains intact at 8-3, then that’s very disappointing for the Giants, because that means they continued to miss the playoffs. You can’t go one-and-done or throw game-ending interceptions in January if you keep failing enough from September through December. That’s probably the single most frustrating thing about Eli. His regular-season defenses haven’t been good, so he gets credit for dealing with that. But in the playoffs, those defenses were outstanding, never allowing more than 23 points in any game and shutting down some of the best offenses in NFL history. And yet the QB still gets the most credit there. I want to see some more playoff losses, Eli. Preferably wins, but just get in the damn tournament. Increase that sample size. Give us some insurance you didn’t just have two one-month hot streaks four years apart. I’m going to drop him next year if 2015 doesn’t go well. Promise.

Ken Stabler for the HOF?

As I predicted this summer, the passing of Ken Stabler has led to him getting another look from the Hall of Fame as 2016’s senior nominee. Unfortunately he won’t be able to enjoy it if he gets in (good chance), but that’s how these things work sometimes. I believe enough time has passed to where a discussion on the merits of Stabler’s HOF case wouldn’t sound insensitive.

Stabler is one of four QBs (Charlie Conerly, Ken Anderson and Kurt Warner) to be a HOF finalist without getting voted in. We know there was some media vitriol going back to his playing days going on behind the scenes to keep Stabler out, so with new voters, that’s not likely to remain an issue. Personally, I can accept Stabler getting into the HOF. I’d sooner back Ken Anderson, but Stabler wouldn’t be a bad choice.

The argument for Stabler is simple: you’ve let George Blanda and Joe Namath in already. You can see I put Stabler ahead of both. Those guys had their peak years in the AFL. Stabler’s best years all came in the 1970’s NFL, the toughest modern decade of passing. He played against a lot of legendary defenses and teams, and definitely had the “Fame” part down with big plays in games with names. He was a very good postseason performer, winning a Super Bowl in 1976. He was also league MVP in 1974 and at least the second-best QB in 1976 (AP second-team All-Pro). Not many QBs can claim those accolades in NFL history. Stabler’s peak really lasted seven seasons (1973-79), but as we have looked at here, that’s still very good from a historical standpoint.

One problem for The Snake is that he threw a lot of interceptions, even for his era. In fact, here are some damning facts:

  • Most games with 4+ interceptions since 1970 merger (including playoffs): Ken Stabler (14)
  • Most games with 5+ interceptions since 1970 merger (including playoffs): Ken Stabler (5)

Stabler is also tied for the third-most games with at least three interceptions (29). Stabler somehow threw 20-30 interceptions in each season from 1977-1980, but still had a winning record each season. It was a different game then, but Stabler still threw too many picks. But again, that didn’t stop voters from keeping Namath and Blanda out. Stabler’s last few years with the Oilers and Saints don’t do him any favors. It’s all about the Oakland run, and that was strong enough in my book to crack the top 30. That also looks to be enough for the standards of the HOF. If you haven’t figured it out, the players in yellow in the list are in the HOF (red are active).

Marginal Moves You Probably Don’t Care About

I moved Phil Simms down four spots to 38 after becoming more impressed with the Giants’ defense and less impressed with his individual contributions.

I moved John Brodie up three spots to 32 after seeing he was one of the hardest quarterbacks to sack. Not quite Marino or Peyton level, but right up there. Part of his ascension was also at the cost of moving Bob Griese down a notch. Why did I do that? Well…

The Same Guy, But One’s Slower: Tony Romo and Philip Rivers

I’ve compared Rivers and Romo a few times over the years as equivalents in each conference. They’re basically the Dan Fouts and Warren Moon of this era: the best quarterbacks to not reach a Super Bowl. It’s a shame because this is the era of the Super Bowl quarterback. A record eight active QBs have a Super Bowl ring. Rivers and Romo have some of the highest passer ratings and YPA averages in NFL history, but haven’t enjoyed much January success for various reasons.

I had these guys 53rd and 54th last year. Romo just had probably the best year of his career, and probably deserved to be MVP if he didn’t get hurt against the Redskins on MNF. He moves ahead of Rivers, who had a MVP-like start, but faded fast after a probable rib injury hampered his play.

Both of these guys became relevant in the 2006 season as first-time starters. Here’s how I stack them up.

  • 2006: Rivers gets the edge for being the full-year starter (1-0)
  • 2007: Big edge to Romo (1-1)
  • 2008: Big edge to Rivers (2-1)
  • 2009: Romo good, but Rivers arguably at his best (3-1)
  • 2010: Not enthralled with this Rivers season, but Romo had broken collarbone (4-1)
  • 2011: Big edge to Romo (4-2)
  • 2012: Big edge to Romo (4-3)
  • 2013: Both did great things, but slight edge to Rivers (5-3)
  • 2014: Big edge to Romo (5-4)

Rivers wins the total seasons, 5-4, but Romo had more decisively better years. I also can’t help but side with Romo in the difference of styles. Romo can improvise under pressure, while Rivers can waddle towards the sideline and throw the ball away. Either way they are close, and you’d be fooling yourself to think otherwise.

These guys have been at it for nine years, and have mostly been consistent in that time. In fact, Romo has hit these bare minimums in a record nine straight seasons: 61.3% completions, 7.2 YPA and 90.5 passer rating.

These guys have winning records. They’ve led teams to No. 1 seeds and multiple 12-win seasons. They’ve had more playoff heartbreak than success, but at least they have won some games. More than Y.A. Tittle and Sonny Jurgensen for starters — that’d be none for those guys. And nine seasons as annual top 5-10 quarterbacks is really damn good. That’s why I ended up moving them past the guys with six good years or a smaller number of great years.

Yes, neither has won an MVP award like Steve McNair, Rich Gannon, Boomer Esiason, Bert Jones and Joe Theismann did, but just remember the competition from that elite group. This is the hardest era to win an award like that in. You really think Theismann, who was good for six years, is a better QB than these two? Give these guys Joe Gibbs and the Hogs instead of Norv Turner and Jason Garrett and see what happens. You want to talk about playoff failures? Boomer Esiason never threw for more than 150 yards in his five playoff starts. McNair, may he rest in peace, was a dreadful postseason QB who can thank the Music City Miracle for not leaving him with a 2-5 career playoff record. Bert Jones never won a playoff game either, was a hit machine and couldn’t stay healthy. Rivers has never missed a start in his career and even played on a torn ACL.

I think Romo and Rivers can crack the top 30 with strong finishes. As you can see, there’s just not much separating these players at this part of the table. A Super Bowl for either is likely a ticket to Canton as well.

More Shit You Really Don’t Care About

I dropped Don Meredith six spots to 58 after acknowledging he’s another QB with just about six relevant years.

I dropped Dave Krieg five spots after realizing some of his best seasons were small samples due to injury or being a backup. It’s kind of amazing he made the Pro Bowl despite playing 9 games in 1988, and it’s baffling why he made it at all in 1989. That was a poor year for the AFC though.

I got Matt Hasselbeck ahead of Bernie Kosar now, because I think his run of relevance (2002-07) is underappreciated. I don’t really blame Kosar for not getting to a Super Bowl (bad Cleveland luck), but I blame him for only having about six or seven relevant seasons.

Ryan vs. Flacco (Again)

Seriously, the Joe Flacco vs. Matt Ryan debates are quite heated — or elite as fvck depending whom you ask — on the internet. I guess I’m adding to it by simply ranking Ryan one spot ahead, the same as I did last year, but these two deserve to be very close. Advanced metrics will tell you Ryan is considerably better in his career, but 2014 was a different story. Flacco was 8th in DYAR; Ryan was 7th. Flacco was 8th in DVOA; Ryan was 9th. Flacco was 10th in QBR; Ryan was 7th. Hmm, that last one seemed to change more with the new QBR system, which surprises me since it’s supposed to devalue YAC. You saw those Antone Smith touchdowns last year, right? Then again, what do you do with the Steve Smith fluky touchdown against Carolina?

Either way, they were very close last year, which was arguably Flacco’s best regular season. Of course what happens here is Flacco has the edge in the playoffs, including getting there all but one time in his seven seasons. Ryan has had strong numbers the last two years, but Atlanta is just 10-22 and couldn’t win a pathetic division last year. Advantage: Flacco.

But I really wish something major would happen to create some separation between these two. Until it does, I’m going to continue ranking them side by side. I just hope other people can appreciate the seven-year starts they’ve had to their careers. Appreciate them even more when you consider the lack of quality signal callers joining the NFL since 2006 as detailed above.

Whither Andrew Luck and Russell Wilson?

Why didn’t I include Luck and Wilson? Well, they’ve only played three seasons. Despite the lack of great all-time quarterbacks, three seasons, no matter how impressive they are as a start, are a tiny sample to get into the top 64. However, I quickly threw together some names to branch out of the top 64 and I feel like it’s very possible Luck and Wilson could join this list after 2015. I also think it’s just as possible that at least one takes an unexpected step back this year. We’ll see what happens. And really, I just kept adding to this list Saturday night, and didn’t spend anywhere near as much time on it as I’ve spent on the top 64. I can tell you Nick Foles, Ryan Tannehill and even Andy Dalton are a big 2015 away from showing up in the top 130. Yes, even Dalton, which just goes to show how little you have to do to be considered an all-time quarterback.

Part II Preview

Why did Tom Brady stay put at No. 5 after his fourth Super Bowl, and why is Peyton Manning still on top? That’s what I’ll tackle in Part II, along with taking down the thin margin of what makes success in the postseason possible.

If you want an advanced copy of the tl;dr version of Part II, here it is:

Newsroom_Brady

2014 NFL Conference Championship Predictions: Number 12 Looks Just Like You

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

This is a Championship Sunday where the number 12 should be very decisive.

Three of the quarterbacks wear No. 12 and Russell Wiiiiiiiil-son is cheered on by Seattle’s 12th man.

  • NE: Since last winning a Super Bowl, the Patriots are 4-8 in the playoffs when the game is a rematch from that regular season. 
  • IND: The Colts are 12-0 in rematches (9-0 vs. AFC South, 3-0 in playoffs) in the Andrew Luck/Chuck Pagano era.
  • GB: Since 2012, the Packers are 2-10 in road games against teams with a final winning record (worst record for any team with multiple playoff appearances in that time).
  • SEA: Russell Wilson is 4-8 when Seattle allows more than 20 points (0-6 when allowing more than 24 points).

Do any of these 12-game samples mean a lot for tomorrow? Maybe not, but it beats any of Heath Evans’ “Tommy” flavored audible pollution.

We know Green Bay lost 36-16 in Seattle in Week 1 and Indy lost 42-20 at home to New England in Week 11. Fortunately, the NFL is a complex game capable of producing a wide range of results. Teams change a lot from week to week as well and I think we will see more competitive games this week, even if the winning teams look familiar. But hey, this is why the regular season is so important. Green Bay would be in a much better spot if the game was at Lambeau, which it almost certainly would have been with a win in Week 1 or a win in Buffalo late in the season. The Broncos and Colts had their chances against the Patriots, but both were outclassed and that stretch put the Patriots in the driver’s seat for this No. 1 seed. Yeah, sometimes it’s not bad to lose a game so you can learn from it for a rematch, but the numbers prove your best odds of winning again are playing at home. So win the big head-to-head matchups in the regular season and your path to the Super Bowl should be smoother.

Colts at Patriots

I said all I really could on this one at FO this week. Please read it if you haven’t, or click again out of appreciation. We also have a NFC preview by Aaron Schatz.

I think the Colts put up a good fight, but NE’s balance is too much to overcome again.

Final prediction: Colts 20, Patriots 27

Packers at Seahawks

Man, opening night feels like a long time ago. The Seahawks were like a kid on Christmas playing with their new toy, Percy Harvin, complete with “Jet Sweep Action.” By New Year’s that toy was collecting dust in the corner. But for a weekend, Darrell Bevell was a genius for throwing Dom Capers’ defense off all night. Marshawn Lynch looked incredible. Wilson had some dropped interceptions. Eddie Lacy was a dud. Aaron Rodgers played one of the worst games of his career and submitted to the Richard Sherman matchup. Bryan Bulaga was injured and things really went to hell on the line.  Seattle tackled really well and limited YAC. That second half was not even competitive from the Packers.

Plenty of things have changed since, though I still think the Seahawks are the better team. Harvin is gone and Paul Richardson is on IR, but you get the sense that it doesn’t even matter for this Seattle offense. Wilson will find a way, on 37 attempts or fewer, to make enough plays, either through design or schoolyard scrambles. Doug Baldwin was very quiet in Week 1 too and should play a bigger part. Jermaine Kearse has made more big plays in two postseasons than some HOF-caliber wideouts have in their whole careers. Someone like Ricardo Lockette could even step in and catch a deep ball. I remember him beating Aqib Talib for a touchdown in Week 3. That’s the value of having a really good quarterback. Every receiver is an option. I like what Luke Willson is doing at tight end and of course Lynch is going against the worst defensive unit playing this weekend: Green Bay’s 24th-ranked run defense. Seattle has won its last two playoff games in convincing fashion without Lynch doing much. I think this is a game where he really needs to go over 100 yards to sustain longer drives that keep Rodgers off the field and shrink his margin for error. Seahawks hit big plays last week, but I think this offense works better with the longer drives that shorten games and makes the opposing offense have to play even more efficiently against the best defense in the league. I’m not in love with Seattle’s offense in this matchup, but I think they will play well again.

We have strength (GB O) vs. strength (SEA D) on the other side, and by now I think we know to side with defense in these matchups. How healthy Rodgers (calf) is obviously dominates the conversation here. If he plays like he did in the first half last week, unwilling to move in the pocket and taking bad sacks, then this might be another 20-point blowout. He has to play like he did in the second half, though Seattle covers, pressures and tackles much better than Dallas. Yeah, that’s the long way of saying this is a much better defense. Am I worried that Seattle’s dominant stretch has come against subpar QBs/offenses, and that Carolina actually moved the ball decently with a banged-up Cam Newton? Just a little. This is still Rodgers and the Packers, so a great game on offense is always a possibility. However, in Rodgers’ last two trips to Seattle he has scored a total of 28 points and been sacked 11 times. Even when healthy this year Rodgers was held under 200 yards on the road against SEA/DET/BUF and under 17 points on the scoreboard. The Vikings also contained him in Minnesota and that defense was just average. This GB offense was spectacular at home, but much easier to defend on the road. I also think Seattle’s track record against the best quarterbacks in the league is valid enough to think they won’t be shredded in this game.

Rodgers has to play very well, but Lacy must be a big part of the offense. I think the key to beating Seattle is sticking with the run even when it’s not overly effective. You can’t expect your quarterback to throw 45+ passes and win this game against that defense. Look at how San Diego played Seattle in Week 2. Philip Rivers handed off 26 times for 84 yards and threw 37 passes with 9 catches by running backs. Those 37 passes were the 2nd-most thrown against Seattle in a win since 2012. Only Matthew Stafford had more with 49 in 2012, though that version of Seattle wasn’t as good on defense. Lacy has to hit some chunk plays and break tackles to wear down this speedy defense.

The receivers are very interesting here. We have Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb and Davante Adams against Sherman, Byron Maxwell and Tharold Simon. Rodgers shouldn’t aggressively attack Sherman, but he can’t repeat Week 1 and just not throw there. The Packers had Jarrett Boykin in Week 1 with the rookie Adams not adjusted yet. Well, he’s had two huge games in GB’s biggest wins of the year against New England and Dallas. Unfortunately, he did nothing in between those games (four catches for 29 yards) so he’s a real wild card. If Adams plays at a high level than the Packers may have something here with Simon as the weak link. I expect Nelson to play much better this week. He had 14 targets in Week 1, but didn’t make big plays. Cobb’s had a weird season: 10 touchdowns thru Week 10 and only two since. You expect Sherman to win his matchup, but the Packers have enough receivers to move around and make plays. Tight ends can also be of value against this defense, but I don’t really think of Andrew Quarless or Richard Rodgers as weapons. Sure, they can run routes and catch the ball, but they’re mostly productive if Rodgers throws them strikes. This Seattle defense has only allowed four touchdown passes that gained 10+ yards, best in the NFL since the 2009 Jets (3). Rodgers has to be pinpoint in this one, and while he might have his best offensive line yet, he doesn’t have full health and I think that’s going to show up on Sunday.

I still don’t trust Mike McCarthy’s game management, or his team in crunch time. Home field is big here, with a 25-2 record since 2012 (Wilson era). Seahawks have led in 54 consecutive games (NFL record). They’re always at least within a score in the 4th quarter. This is the team to beat right now. The potential for a dynasty has been there and to do that, you have to win a game like this.

Final prediction: Packers 19, Seahawks 27

Yep, I almost went with the same score in both games. I know what I want to see happen this weekend, and it is 100% self-serving.

Hey, why not? Winning the Super Bowl is a young man’s game and the internet is just dying for that Luck/Wilson debate to take things to another level.

Season Results

  • Week 1: 8-8
  • Week 2: 9-7
  • Week 3: 11-5
  • Week 4: 8-5
  • Week 5: 11-4
  • Week 6: 9-5-1
  • Week 7: 10-5
  • Week 8: 10-5
  • Week 9: 11-2
  • Week 10: 10-3
  • Week 11: 8-6
  • Week 12: 12-3
  • Week 13: 9-7
  • Week 14: 11-5
  • Week 15: 14-2
  • Week 16: 10-6
  • Week 17: 11-5
  • Wild Card: 3-1
  • Divisional: 2-2
  • Total: 177-86-1

NFL Week 6 Predictions: Brady, Benny and the Jets

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

With respect to a locked-in Philip Rivers and the improving Andrew Luck, I’ve known the AFC of the last decade to be dominated by three quarterbacks: Peyton Manning, Tom Brady and Ben Roethlisberger.

They’ve represented the AFC in 10 of the last 11 Super Bowls. On Sunday, they all face a familiar AFC foe with history well in their favor.

  • Tom Brady is 22-2 against Buffalo with 54 TD, 19 INT (100.1 PR).
  • Ben Roethlisberger is 18-1 against Cleveland with 28 TD, 13 INT (97.7 PR).

Those records are as good as it gets for a quarterback against a divisional opponent, but what does it really tell us? I find three main takeaways:

1. Despite many changes around them over the years, Brady and Roethlisberger have been two of the league’s best quarterbacks and will both be in the Hall of Fame. They play consistently well against a lot of different teams.

2. The Bills and Browns are two of the NFL’s most consistent losers. The Bills haven’t been in the playoffs since 1999 and the Browns 2.0 have one playoff season (lost to the Steelers for the third time in 2002).

3. Then there’s the makeup of these teams. Brady and Roethlisberger usually enjoy good defenses, while the Browns and Bills have struggled to find a quarterback capable of scoring many points. So these meetings turn into a lot of easy wins for Ben and Brady. Even when they don’t play well, it’s usually a win (see Week 17 last year for both).

If there was ever a time when Brady and Roethlisberger could both lose to their helpless rivals in the same season, it’s on Sunday.

Both will be on the road. Steelers-Browns is the first rematch of the 2014 season. Cleveland erased a 24-point deficit in the second half in Week 1 and nearly won in Pittsburgh. The Bills have roughed up Brady in the past, holding him under 5.6 YPA in both meetings last year (Doug Marrone’s first season as coach).  The problem is the New England running game usually stomps all over Buffalo’s poor run defense, but some are still skeptical of the offensive line this year.

These games could be very intriguing with first place in the AFC East on the line in Patriots-Bills. I’m not sold that Kyle Orton is ready to deliver against a defense that’s good at creating turnovers. In Cleveland, I think Roethlisberger will have a solid day leading the offense. Joe Haden has not been able to stop Antonio Brown in past meetings and they could pick on the rookie Justin Gilbert again. The problem is on defense. The Steelers don’t create turnovers while the Browns have been protecting the ball very well. The Browns are effective on the ground and with using play-action passing — two things that have plagued the Steelers of recent years.

I know better than to pick against the Patriots again. As for the other game, it’s just not in my nature to pick the Browns over the Steelers even if I think there’s a good chance the Browns take this game at home.

Final predictions:

Patriots 20, Bills 13

Steelers 24, Browns 21

Then there’s Peyton Manning and the Broncos against Rex Ryan’s Jets, losers of four straight. This one has the ingredients for a Denver blowout. The Jets are the 4th defense since 1940 to allow at least 12 touchdown passes and no more than one interception in the first five games of a season. How can they contend with Denver’s receiving corps, especially after Demaryius Thomas got on track with a huge game last week? Shut down Demaryius and the Broncos still have Emmanuel Sanders, who has caught 32-of-42 passes for 435 yards. His implementation into the offense has been immediately effective and highly efficient. Welker’s working his way back from a concussion and suspension. Then of course there’s Julius Thomas, who already has seven touchdowns. The Broncos can’t run the ball well, but that’s not what they’re going to rely on to beat the Jets.

Geno Smith has to start at quarterback, because we know Michael Vick isn’t the answer for any NFL team. Regardless, the Jets need a miracle to win this game to avoid a 1-5 start. I just don’t see any reasonable manner in which they pull this one off. Manning has done very well against much better Ryan defenses in the past.

  • Peyton Manning vs. Rex Ryan as Ravens DC/Jets HC (2005-10): 5-2 record, 126/197 (64%) for 1,738 yards, 8.82 YPA, 13 TD, 2 INT, 109.9 PR

One of the losses was the “Curtis Painter Game” in 2009. The second was in the last meeting, 17-16 in the 2010 AFC Wild Card, after the Jets scored on a last-second field goal.

Since 2009, 17 of the 18 teams to beat Manning scored at least 26 points. That 17-16 Jets game is the outlier. 

That’s also the last time Ryan had a winning team. To beat Manning’s Broncos, you have to score a lot of points and/or shrink the game by being efficient and effective on offense. That’s not the Jets.

Final prediction:

Broncos 34, Jets 14

NFL Week 6 Predictions

I had the Colts on Thursday, and for a change we actually had a good game I get to write about.

Winners in bold:

  • Lions at Vikings
  • Panthers at Bengals
  • Ravens at Buccaneers
  • Steelers at Browns
  • Packers at Dolphins
  • Broncos at Jets
  • Patriots at Bills
  • Jaguars at Titans
  • Chargers at Raiders
  • Cowboys at Seahawks
  • Bears at Falcons
  • Redskins at Cardinals
  • Giants at Eagles
  • 49ers at Rams

I had a lot of road teams, so I ended up changing some 50/50 picks at the last second to go with Vikings and Bengals at home.

Forget DeMarco Murray’s rarefied rushing company to start this season. Forget Russell Wilson’s rushing numbers on Monday night. I will be shocked if Marshawn Lynch isn’t the dominant player in Sunday’s big game against Dallas and its 32nd-ranked run defense. Don’t count the Cowboys out. Tony Romo led Dallas to a win in New Orleans (13-0 at the time) in 2009 and also knocked off the 9-0 Colts in 2006. Those are big wins, and yes, they really happened. This could be a good one, but who really wants to bet against Seattle at home right now?

Season Results

  • Week 1: 8-8
  • Week 2: 9-7
  • Week 3: 11-5
  • Week 4: 8-5
  • Week 5: 11-4
  • Total: 47-29

Super Bowl XLVIII Predictions: Peyton Manning’s Legacy vs. NFL’s Next Great Team

~ Scott ~ 6 Comments

The Denver Broncos are as likely as any team to win Super Bowl XLVIII.

That was the opening line to my March preview of the 2013 Broncos. I have been riding the Denver bandwagon for a long time now. In April I called it “The Year of the Broncos” after the schedule came out. On numerous occasions I have compared the 1996-97 Broncos to the 2012-13 Broncos, thinking they’d bounce back and go the distance this season. I picked them before the season started in spite of the Von Miller suspension.  I only wavered when San Diego was the first opponent in the playoffs, actually believing the Chargers had the right stuff to pull the upset. I was wrong.

So how can I go against Denver now that they’ve reached the destination I always believed they were headed for?

With Wilson’s development and continuous improvement to the roster, the Seattle Seahawks are primed to have the NFL’s next dynasty.

That was the closing line to my piece last May on the NFL’s next dynasty. I chose Seattle and a championship this season would certainly put the Seahawks on the right path to becoming that.

So both of my babies have made it and we get the perfect Super Bowl matchup. These were the two best teams down the stretch last year and both had heart-breaking losses in the Divisional Round, surrendering the lead in the final 40 seconds. They were the best teams again this year and make this only the second Super Bowl between No. 1 seeds in the salary cap era (1994-present).

We have all the potential for an instant classic and I have a ton of thoughts to share on this game, which may not flow together well, but my goal was to finish this in less time than it will take me to watch the game.

I’m all about that action, boss.

NO. 1 DECIDING FACTOR: HOW WELL THE RECEIVERS ARE COVERED

I cannot see anything more decisive in this game than how well each defense covers the receivers. We know Seattle’s going to get grabby and physical and there is concern over whether or not Denver’s group of receivers can handle that for 60 minutes. The Seahawks are mostly built like the 2001-04 Patriots where it’s hard to key in on any one receiver and they’re all capable of making a big play. And you can bet Russell Wilson will be looking for the bombs, either off play-action or one of his Fran Tarkenton-esque scrambles. Denver’s had some big problems with covering receivers down the field.

If you’re expecting some pass interference calls, don’t. In the last 10 Super Bowls, only two defensive pass interference penalties have been called (4 OPI). The receivers are going to have to work hard on Sunday to win battles.

DENVER’S OFFENSE SHOULD WIN BIG MATCHUP WITH SEATTLE’S DEFENSE

First the big disclaimer: Denver’s offense has not played a defense anything close to Seattle. Seattle’s defense has not played an offense anything close to Denver. It’s a big step up in competition for both sides.

The more I think about this dream matchup the more I think it favors Denver. Sure, things will not look as pretty as they have this postseason (SD/NE) and Denver will probably have more punts by the end of the first quarter than the one they have this whole playoffs. Seattle’s defense will win some battles (series), but I think Denver’s going to win the war (overall matchup).

These units are amazingly talented and rely on that talent to execute what is not an overly complex scheme built on variety, trickery and deception. Denver’s going to load up in “11” personnel (3 WR, 1 RB, 1 TE) for most of the game with Manning often in the shotgun. Seattle’s going to mostly rush four, not blitz much, play a lot of Cover-3 and you can count on Richard Sherman lining up on the defensive left and Earl Thomas often in the middle.

When you give Peyton Manning two weeks to prepare for such a defense, I have to believe he’s going to figure out the mismatches quickly. Seattle’s vaunted pass rush is something I don’t remember hearing much about until the last two weeks. The attention was all about the secondary. Manning gets the ball out so quickly that most of the rush gets neutralized when the ball’s coming out in under 2.5 seconds. Kansas City was supposed to have a great pass rush and could barely breathe on Manning in the first meeting this season when Tamba Hali and Justin Houston were healthy. Those are more talented rushers than Seattle’s and Manning’s not playing his first game with a taped-up high ankle sprain like he did that night.

The Seahawks rotate in a lot of guys to rush the QB, but Manning, the least-pressured QB in the league, should be able to stop that by going with the no-huddle offense and not allowing for substitutions. So much of Denver’s offense works with the 11 personnel and they still have flexibility. Julius Thomas can line up at wide receiver and create a mismatch thru speed with any linebacker or even Earl Thomas. The three wide receivers are a lot for Seattle to cover even if Sherman locks up Demaryius Thomas.

I also don’t see Sherman being a big factor for the reason that he does not shadow the top receiver from side to side. Manning’s old offense was more rigid in how Reggie Wayne would almost always line up on the left. In the 2010 playoffs against the Jets and Darrelle Revis, Manning showed Revis too much respect, throwing just one target (a screen) to Wayne all night.

But in Denver, guys move around and I fully expect Demaryius to get his targets on the offensive left with a guy like Byron Maxwell in coverage. I saw the 49ers accomplish that with Michael Crabtree, but Kaepernick was not seeing the field or throwing the ball as well as Manning.

STATS LLC show that Manning does not favor one side of the field over the other and is great in every area:

PMSTATSLLC

Demaryius will likely not have a huge game, but he’s going to get Sherman-free opportunities in this one.

Seattle’s worst defensive game of the season was in Indianapolis (season-high 27 points allowed). The Colts have arguably the closest comparison to the Broncos in terms of a good QB and multiple receiving options (Saints just didn’t have the horses on the outside this year; so much of it was RBs and Jimmy Graham, who played really soft in press coverage in 2013). Remember, that was the Colts with Reggie Wayne.

In that game against the Colts, the Seahawks faced a season-high 46 snaps from 11 personnel used by Indy. Denver used 11 personnel 33 times against New England…in the first half alone of the AFC Championship. Yeah, that’s their base offense and Seattle’s going to get a ton of looks at it.

As Aaron Schatz notes, the Seahawks only faced shotgun on a league-low 45 percent of snaps. They were still No. 1 against shotgun offense. The Broncos used shotgun a league-high 78 percent of the time, so once again Denver will be running an offense with more talent than Seattle has seen and in formations the Seahawks are not as used to having to defend this year.

I’m a strong believer in any defense Matt Schaub and Mike Glennon can have success against, Peyton Manning can have success against too.

I also think the running back screen will be more important than those wide receiver screens that Seattle snuffs out very well. Seattle has been vulnerable to passes in the short middle and we may see Knowshon Moreno/Montee Ball eat up some catches. Remember, Joseph Addai had 10 catches in SB 41 from Manning who was playing a very good, but also very predictable Tampa-2 defense from Chicago, so he should know where to pick and prod. The crossing routes and pick plays will also give Seattle some trouble.

Manning has already played the six best passing defenses for a playoff team since 2006, based on defensive passer rating. His results speak for themselves:

pmtDEF

Running backs in general are important for Denver in this game, though I think a 30-carry, 110-yard night would be more than adequate to get the win. It can’t be Manning throwing 50 times into that secondary, but this does not have to be a huge rushing performance. When the pre-snap look is there, Manning has shown he’s willing to take it.

I just think unless Seattle does show some defensive wrinkles exclusively for the SB, then Manning has an opportunity to pick them apart. Remember, the Saints had a different game plan for every quarter of SB 44. I’m not sure any of them really worked, but all it takes is one play for a corner to jump a route and that can be the ballgame.  Of course, Seattle’s offense matching the potent efficiency of the 2009 Saints sounds very unrealistic based on the last six games of the season.

WHICH SEATTLE OFFENSE SHOWS UP?

Remember how brilliant Russell Wilson looked in Week 13 on MNF against the Saints? I think it was after that night I started picturing this matchup and how Wilson and Lynch could give this Denver defense fits in New Jersey. Well, a lot has changed in two months. Seattle’s really resorted to relying on big plays on offense and getting great field position from mistakes to score points on short fields. The defense of course obliges them, but this is not a game the Seahawks can win with a low score. The offense, which ranks 30th on third down since Week 14, needs to step up.

While Marshawn Lynch should get his touches and opportunities, the game really comes down to young Wilson. He threw a great game-winning TD pass on fourth down against San Francisco, but the rest of his game was very uneven. He was impotent against the Saints as well, showing some major accuracy issues on easy slants. Some point to the defensive schedule in recent weeks, but then look at how the Broncos have stepped up and held down better offenses from San Diego and New England. The defensive line is getting it done with the emergence of “Potroast” and a surprisingly good pass rush without Von Miller. Now Wilson is far more mobile than Brady or Rivers and I expect him to rush for 40+ yards and give Denver fits, but many of his wild scrambles are also unproductive plays for Seattle. He’s the most pressured QB, so I expect Denver will have some success, but the secondary better plaster downfield. Champ Bailey is back for Denver, but he hasn’t been tested much at all (3 targets in the playoffs).

Wilson will need to exploit the secondary of Denver and hit on some deep balls, which is a strength of his. The Seahawks love to use play-action. Brady had the perfect play-action bomb setup on Denver in the AFC-C, but terribly missed a wide open Julian Edelman. Wilson is better on those throws, though I wonder if his accuracy will be an issue early if nerves get to the 25-year-old.

I don’t expect nerves to be a problem by the end of the game for Wilson, but for that portion to matter, he’s going to need some help.

BEAST MODE?

Who knew Lynch was like a prisoner on a chain gang from Cool Hand Luke? “Wiping it off here, boss!” The shame is if he has a bad game or a big fumble, some will blame his handling of the media for why he blew it. Let’s do the right thing and give Denver credit or Lynch some criticism.

Lynch is a trendy pick for Super Bowl MVP, but I don’t see it. Denver’s been very good against the run all season, so Lynch gashing the Broncos would be a surprise. Lynch has only topped 100 rushing yards five times in 18 games this year. That’s really not impressive for an elite RB. Someone asked me how many 95-yard games he had, but who cares? If Lynch has 95 yards, advantage Broncos. If Lynch has a game like he did in the NFC Championship where half of his production (3 carries for 56 yards, TD) came on one drive, then advantage Broncos (unless it’s late in the game and he puts Seattle ahead with that TD, but you feel me, boss). For Lynch to truly dominate and have a MVP performance, he’ll need to consistently rip off good runs and have a 25-carry, 150-yard night. I don’t see that happening.

Then I hear how there’s “Playoff Lynch” where he “raises his game” in the playoffs. Nope, don’t buy it. One week after he put himself on the map with that TD run against the Saints, Lynch had 4 carries for 2 yards in Chicago. Last season he had 16 carries for 46 yards in Atlanta (a “soft” defense) in the playoffs. He’s also had multiple fumbles in his playoff career. His numbers look fine the last two weeks, but Denver’s defensive line has really stepped up and this game is more on Wilson’s arm to win it, not Lynch’s legs.

Should Denver score like they’re capable of, that just makes it even less likely Lynch has a big impact.

WILSON NEEDS TO FINISH, MANNING NEEDS TO START AND FINISH

While I think Wilson has to come through for Seattle to win, he may only need to play his best in the fourth quarter instead of all four quarters, which is exactly what Manning needs to do for his offense to work against this defense. Wilson can get by with a pedestrian start, which I think will happen. He’s young and we’ve seen nerves get the best of quarterbacks before. Colin Kaepernick looked a bit shaky last year before getting back on track in the second half. Ben Roethlisberger and Matt Hasselbeck never really calmed down in SB XL. I think Wilson’s a gamer and will be at his best in the fourth quarter.

CLOSE GAME?

The last 10 Super Bowls have had a fourth-quarter comeback opportunity (only 13 of the first 37 did). Hopefully that streak continues, because I want to watch something great. It should given these teams’ competitiveness.

Manning has had a fourth-quarter lead in 13 straight playoff games (NFL record).

Seattle has been at least within one score in the fourth quarter in 50 straight games. Seattle’s led in the fourth quarter of 29 straight games:

SEA50GM

Going back to college, Wilson is on a 64-game streak of being this close late and not getting blown out. Denver actually just ended New England’s 63-game streak in the AFC Championship, keeping the Patriots down by 10+ the entire second half. Breaking Seattle’s streak too would be epic, but I wouldn’t bet on that happening. Seattle’s too good and balanced.

BIG COMEBACK?

Yep, the Super Bowls have been much closer, but remember when it was 28-6 Baltimore last year shortly after Beyonce shit the house down (in the words of Joe Theismann)? Well, it still ended up close eventually, which is my saying for all Russell Wilson games.

But which team is more likely to make a big comeback in the second half? Believe it or not, I lean towards Seattle, just because of the difference in defenses. That would be very tough on Manning to abandon the run and keep throwing against that defense and pass rush. For Wilson, look no further than the way the Broncos have let up in the fourth quarter with three-score leads to the Chargers and Patriots. But you might think taking advantage of a prevent requires cutting down on risk and Rivers/Brady are far more likely to take what the defense gives them while Wilson looks for big plays.

That sounds logical, but then I remember Wilson being down 27-7 in the fourth quarter in Atlanta last postseason and making big play after big play to put his team ahead in the final minute. Can he do it again in this game? Absolutely, because that plays right into Denver’s weakness (big passes) and away from their strength (stopping the run). I actually think Wilson’s best playoff game was the only one he lost.

Seattle is 34-5 (.872) under Pete Carroll when leading by 7+ points at any time in the game. Only the Steelers (4) have fewer losses in that time. The Seahawks have lost three games after leading by 10+ points since 2010. Denver certainly has the firepower to pull it off, but both teams better stay close. Super Bowls aren’t known for big comeback wins:

SBDEF

MOTHER NATURE

Looks like Manning’s Law, where anything that can go wrong will go wrong for Peyton Manning’s teams in the playoffs, is getting a break. The weather was fantastic for the AFC Championship and it looks like the weather should not be a factor on Sunday night. Manning doesn’t magically turn into Scott Mitchell when the temperature dips below 40 anyway, but there’s no doubt good conditions (that’s more about wind and precipitation than temperature) are a big positive for the pass-heavy team.

PERCY HARVIN: SUPER BOWL MVP?

Though if there is some Manning’s Law at work here, it would be Percy Harvin having a monster game and MVP performance after giving the Seahawks nothing all year. We don’t really know what Seattle’s offense with Harvin looks like since they never had him healthy long enough. He can definitely have a big impact even if it doesn’t show up in his individual stats. Denver being down their top pass-rusher and a very good cornerback (Chris Harris) makes the passing matchup difficult, but I’ll be surprised if Harvin has a lot of catches. He just hasn’t had the reps with Wilson, who is not exactly playing his best football right now. Harivn’s also a bit of an overrated receiver. He’s known for big plays, yet his longest catch in the NFL is 53 yards (that’s out of 281 receptions). In three career playoff games, he has 9 catches for 60 yards, or the Trent Richardson equivalent for a wide receiver.

Where Harvin can dangerously impact the game is with kick returns. He could be like Desmond Howard for the 1996 Packers. But of course, more kick return opportunities only come after Denver scoring drives.

SH!+ I DON’T WANT TO HEAR ABOUT

  • Tim Tebow having anything to do with any NFL team, but especially the 2013 Broncos.
  • The officiating in Super Bowl XL.
  • Dominic Rhodes being the real MVP of Super Bowl XLI. Seriously, did people not see how well Manning threw the ball in the rain? Look at the six drops that cost him a 300-yard day.
  • Denver “only” averaging 25 PPG in the playoffs. Look at the freakin’ drive stats. More efficient than regular season.
  • Anything about “Omaha.”

BRUNO MARS

So he’s like a 2010’s version of Prince? Not interested.

SCORE BIG TO BEAT MANNING

All seven of Denver’s losses under Manning have seen the opponent score 27+ points (Denver had at least 20+ too). Manning is 80-0 when he starts and finishes a game where his team allows 0-16 points. You’re not going to beat him 16-10 (Jim Sorgi on the other hand…).

UNUSUAL PASSING PRODUCTION FOR A CHAMPION

No matter which team wins, it will be historic for passing standards. The Broncos set a NFL record with 5,444 net passing yards. Those teams never win a Super Bowl. The Seahawks ranked just 26th with 3,236 passing yards. That would be the lowest ranking in passing for any Super Bowl winner.

Wilson had a season-high 25 completions in Week 1. Manning’s had 25+ completions in 15/18 games this year. Different strokes…

ERIC DECKER

I get the feeling Decker’s going to have some really pathetic play that turns into an interception for Seattle. He needs to play his most physical game to match up with Seattle’s secondary. That goes for all of Denver’s skill players, but especially the reality TV star looking for big bucks in free agency.

WES WELKER

I know you don’t really make that catch in Super Bowl XLVI, Wes, but how about catching the ones in your wheelhouse this week? Too many drops from this guy in the last few years and he should be an important part of Denver’s success if he’s up to it. A big performance and a ring could be a difference maker for his legacy when you’re talking about the Hall of Fame. Manning and Champ Bailey could play the worst games in Super Bowl history and both should still be first-ballot HOFers. Welker will be viewed as the guy who redefined the slot receiver in his era, but he could use a signature moment here.

TIPPED BALLS

According to the NFL Network, Seattle has 18 of its 30 interceptions off tipped balls this season. That sounds way too high to be random luck, so there’s some skill involved here. Richard Sherman’s tip-to-a-pick in the NFC Championship is a replica of a play he made to force Eli Manning’s fifth interception last month.

BALL SECURITY

Turnovers are always huge in the Super Bowl. This is an area that strongly favors Seattle, which is +20 in turnover differential this season compared to 0 for Denver.

Since 2012 (including playoffs), Seattle is +37 in turnover differential compared to -5 for Denver.

That’s just a stunning difference, and yet Denver has reached the same playoff round in both years as Seattle. But this is not a game that can be won with a poor turnover differential. Seattle capitalizes too well on mistakes. Denver has the #ObligatoryDenverFumble to worry about and Seattle is very good at stripping and tipping the ball. That could be huge.

THIRD DOWN

I did a big third-down study for this game last week at ESPN Insider.

In summary, Seattle’s offense is mediocre, has been poor lately, but Denver’s pass defense is historically bad in these third-down situations. Seattle has the best third-down pass defense since 1989 by DVOA, but Manning’s still pretty elite on these plays too.

The big stat: quarterbacks are 1/39 at converting on 3rd-and-11 or longer against Seattle this season.

Yep, Carson Palmer somehow had the one conversion. I believe Manning has 7 such conversions in 2013.

NEUTRAL-FIELD ADVANTAGE?

These are two teams that actually have a tangible home-field advantage they won’t have this week in New Jersey. I think the neutral field favors Denver, just because the Seahawks have a decade of evidence that they really do play much better in Seattle than on the road. In terms of DVOA, Denver is basically the same offensive team on the road versus at home and a bit worse on defense, but the Seahawks have considerably larger declines on the road on both defense and offense. They’re still the No. 1 road defense, but not as dominant.

HRS

Seattle also hasn’t played a road game since going to MetLife a month ago.

COMPARISONS TO PAST SUPER BOWLS

This is one of those meaningless things we talk about before the game and can better answer after the game. I see a lot of comparisons to the 2007 Giants/Patriots. I don’t think the game will be like that and the New England offense was slumping down the stretch anyway. Giants showed some cracks in that matchup in Week 17.

I’ve seen comparisons to 1990 Bills/Giants. I highly doubt the Seahawks will hold the ball for 40+ minutes and keep Denver to 1/8 on third down. Seattle’s boom or bust on offense right now. It takes a lot of successful plays to do ball-control offense.

Carolina (8) is the only offense to have fewer than nine possessions against Seattle this year.

2002 Bucs/Raiders – kill that noise. Jon Gruden knew what plays were coming and the 2002 Bucs had the best pass defense this century. Denver’s offense is much better than Oakland’s and these teams have little familiarity at all.

The game I actually might think compare best is Super Bowl 34 between the 1999 Rams/Titans. I think Denver will move the ball well, but may struggle in the red zone while the Titans struggle for the better part of three quarters before mounting a comeback behind their mobile QB. No, Demaryius Thomas won’t beat Richard Sherman with a great move for a 73-yard touchdown like Isaac Bruce had, and there won’t be a bad slant from Wilson to Harvin that gets stopped at the 1-yard line, but I think that might be the Super Bowl this compares to best when it’s over.

COACHES

John Fox and Pete Carroll are two of the league’s better coaches. I don’t see any significant advantage in this area of the game. This isn’t like Jim “Bernie” Caldwell matching blank stares with the calculated, aggressive genius of Sean Payton. Both had equal time to prepare and like I said earlier, their strong units really are more about execution than the scheme.  Denver is usually a dominant second-half team, though that did start to slip after Fox had his heart surgery and Jack Del Rio took over on an interim basis. In the last four games, the Broncos have allowed a total of 16 points in the first three quarters (that’s 12 quarters total), and only 3 points in the last 3 games, but obviously the late prevent is giving up points.

I don’t put stock in preseason games. These teams haven’t met since 2010, but have changed dramatically from that year to the point where it’s not even worth any analysis.

One thing I did find interesting is how Seattle struggled with the AFC South this year. Indy beat them, Houston had them down big, the Titans were tied in the 4th quarter in Seattle and well, the Jags were the Jags. What’s interesting is Carroll never coached against that AFC South, which last played Seattle in the 2009 season, a year before Carroll was hired.

So unfamiliarity is an interesting topic in this game, but I imagine these teams will quickly get acquainted with each other Sunday night.

SPECIAL TEAMS

This favors Seattle, but it’s a game involving Peyton Manning, so what do you expect? Take the last 47 Super Bowls and the 94 teams and rank them by special teams performance on Super Sunday. I’d be shocked if the 2006 Colts and 2009 Colts didn’t rank 93rd and 94th. In 2006, the Colts allowed an opening-game kickoff score to Devin Hester, botched an extra point and missed an easy field goal in the first half. That’s an 11-point difference, which is the only reason the Colts didn’t win in a blowout. In 2009, the Colts had the third-worst starting field position in any playoff game I have studied (2nd worst for a Super Bowl) and of course Hank Baskett botched the onside kick recovery to start the third quarter. Matt Stover missed a long field goal in the fourth quarter while New Orleans’ Garrett Hartley was great on his long kicks.

Trindon Holliday has been very quiet and still hard to trust with fumbling.

I trust Matt Prater, who has missed twice all season (incl. playoffs), not to pull a Scott Norwood, but there will be no Denver altitude here. His ability to get touchbacks is another huge part of the game as Harvin is likely to get some opportunities to give Seattle great field position.

FIELD POSITION

Oh, and in case you missed it, Wilson’s had the best starting field position in the playoffs (34.81) of any quarterback I’ve studied, and this is in the era where starting at the 20 is oh so common. Manning (27.34) ranks 30th out of 32. Could be a lot more shorter fields for Seattle.

MANNING AFTER A BYE WEEK

I was asked by a few people how Manning’s done with a bye/extra week to prepare. I think that’s lessened in the Super Bowl when both teams have the same time, but here’s the table:

PMBYE

As you might expect, the results are favorable. Manning’s worst game was in his rookie year (his 8th career game). In the 23 games, Manning had at least 224 yards and scored at least 16 points all 23 times.

Oh noes, he’s 3-5 in the playoffs!!

Yeah, I think I’ve handled those games before. Not concerned with his play. He’ll be prepared.

MANNING VS. ELITE PASS DEFENSES

Clearly Denver did not get here with records by playing a tough defensive schedule. The highest-ranked pass defense Manning played was Kansas City (7th) twice. Of course, had the Chiefs not played Manning twice, they may have ranked in the top five, but it is what it is.

I had the table earlier about Manning against the top pass defenses, but that was for playoff teams and based on DPR. Based on DVOA, here’s Manning since 2003 against top 5 pass defenses (playoffs in blue, Weeks 16-17 rest games in tan):

PMT5DVOA

Again, a lot of favorable results.

Since I’m getting into “Manning table” mode, might as well jump into the next section before I make my final prediction.

PEYTON MANNING’S LEGACY

She’d have been a legend with or without that god damn song. – Quote from a bad movie that works better in a song

I promised I was not going to walk down Idiocy Boulevard with another Peyton Manning Super Bowl appearance. I spent the week on it four years ago when the narrative was “with a win on Sunday, Manning will be the greatest quarterback in NFL history!”

That’s a label that will never reach a consensus, and there’s nothing to stop me from already saying Manning is the greatest ever regardless of what happens on Sunday. We know even with a win, all it will take is a close playoff loss at home next year coupled with a Tom Brady Super Bowl win for the conversation to change again. I’ll just let 15 years of evidence speak for itself when I talk about who is the greatest.

When asked about his legacy this week, Manning had the perfect response:

“If I had my choice, what my legacy would be, would be that I played my butt off for every team that I ever played on, I was a really good teammate and I did everything I could to win. Whatever happens along in that time is fine with me. Those are things that I care about.” – Peyton Manning

That’s basically become my go-to argument for Manning over the years. No quarterback has ever done more to put his team in a position to win regardless of circumstances. That’s all you can ask for from the quarterback in this team game.

Now don’t get me wrong. Winning on Sunday night by any means necessary would be huge for Manning — about as huge of a win as any quarterback could ever have. There’s far more to gain with a win and hardly nothing to lose with a loss this week for Manning.

Becoming the first quarterback to win a Super Bowl with two different teams would be the perfect accomplishment for Manning’s career. It proves his style works and that he was able to transplant it perfectly from Indianapolis to Denver, even after four neck surgeries. He’d have won it his way (twice), not putting the share of the offense on a young running back like his boss John Elway did at the end of his career. He’d put a cherry on top to the greatest quarterback season ever, even surpassing what Joe Montana did in 1989 with a loaded San Francisco team. Montana was very good in Kansas City, but he wasn’t dominant like Manning’s been in Denver. Brett Favre’s first year in Minnesota was great, but how did the encore go?

Can anyone picture Tom Brady, without Bill Belichick, going to any of the 31 other teams in the league and having the type of impact Manning’s had in Denver? Not a chance. Manning’s in his third Super Bowl with his third head coach. Someone like Bart Starr was an embarrassment without Vince Lombardi. Manning’s impact on a whole team is unlike any other quarterback’s impact.

Yet somehow being “the best regular-season quarterback” has become an insult. The same regular season that makes up 91.3 percent of Manning’s career starts somehow takes a backseat to the postseason, where Manning has been one of the best playoff quarterbacks by every measure except the one he has the least control over: the win-loss record. He can get over .500 with a win and pick up his 12th playoff win (sixth most).

By recognizing Manning as the greatest regular-season quarterback ever, you’ve just eliminated over 99 percent of the competition for the GOAT. And there is no argument against that either. No quarterback has ever been so individually decorated with 5 MVP awards, 7 1st-Team All-Pro selections and 13 Pro Bowls. He has the records and longevity to back that up.

For those who care about more intangible things, a record 13 postseason berths (#winning) and changing the standards of the game with regards to the no-huddle offense and how to call plays is more than enough proof of his legacy.

So at the end of the day, we’re talking about the postseason. Manning will pass Brady for the most passing yards in playoff history, doing so in three fewer games. He’s already engineered some of the best playoff games in NFL history, including the largest comeback in a championship game ever. With one more win, he would have beaten the league’s No. 1 defense in the playoffs in all three of his Super Bowl runs. If Manning should lead a game-winning drive against Seattle, it would be his 52nd, moving him past Dan Marino for the all-time record.

Then there’s the fact that no leader in passing yards has ever won a Super Bowl (0-47). Manning would do that, all while likely throwing over 60 touchdowns and for over 6,400 yards (another record). Of all the 48 Super Bowl wins, this one would be the most quarterback-dependent of them all.

That’s a hell of a lot to gain from one game, so no pressure, Peyton. But even if he comes up short, show me another quarterback capable of having a chance to accomplish all of these things.

I do not expect Manning to retire even with a win, but there would never be a better opportunity to go out on top. There is nothing he has left to prove, and that’s just as true on February 1 as it will be tomorrow night.

THE NUMBER 24

I think the number 24 is huge in this game, and that’s not really a reference to Marshawn Lynch. I’m talking about points. Seattle’s only exceeded that point threshold in half of their games (9 games with 27+, 9 games with <24). Denver’s hit 24+ in 17/18 games and can join the 1983 Raiders as the only teams to score 20+ in 19/19 games.

It’s very difficult to score that much on Seattle, but if any offense can do it, it’s this one. The Seahawks have allowed 24+ points only five times since 2012 and they are 1-4 in those games with an overtime win over Tampa Bay this year.

If Denver has even one of its worst games of the season, that should still force Seattle to have to score 24+ to get the win.

FINAL PREDICTION

So what more can I even say? A lot of the numbers and history tell me to go with the Seahawks, because they’re the more balanced team for both offense/defense and run/pass. They’re younger and more physical. They’re even better on special teams and have the health bonus (though it’s no given Harvin lasts long). The offensive juggernaut with the MVP QB tends to flame out against the No. 1 scoring defense, which is 12-3 in the big game.

I tried to hide the heart from the head. – Rites of Spring

I make no secrets about it: I want Manning to win. I love having a real rooting interest in the Super Bowl and have been fortunate to have a lot of them in the last decade.

But I really do like Denver’s chances this week. I just don’t love them and can see many reasons why Seattle could (should?) win the game.

In the end I see Denver protecting a 4-point lead and the most fitting ending would have to be a Hail Mary from Russell Wilson. Fans of Wisconsin and the Packers know how big that play has been in his football career. It’s the play both teams have to overcome from last season. Golden Tate needs a Hail Mary everyone believes he caught. The Broncos need to get over the Rahim Moore debacle. Knock it down if there’s no one trailing the play. I really do think it comes down to the last drive, producing an instant classic.

It’s a game like this that makes you wish the NFL would stop all talks of expanding the playoff field and instead make a best-of-3 Super Bowl.

Win or lose, Seattle should be the favorite to win it all next season. This is Denver’s best chance as the roster is going to experience a lot of changes. Denver started the season in historic fashion with a 7 TD takedown of the defending champions. Why not end it with another groundbreaking performance over a proud defense?

Final prediction: Broncos 24, Seahawks 20

Super Bowl MVP: Peyton Manning

NFL Conference Championship Predictions: “Manning Is Better than Brady, But So What?” Edition

~ Scott ~ 33 Comments

Part of me is happy the AFC game is on first Sunday, but I also feel like I’m going to miss some of the NFC game afterwards for reasons still in my control, but I just can’t help myself. The endless Peyton Manning-Tom Brady debate grabbed me again on Saturday and I really didn’t even plan to write much about it this weekend.

There’s a good chance the best quarterback on Sunday won’t win, but the better quarterback should at least prevail in one of the games. I actually think it’s more important in the NFC game where two similar teams built around the model of physical defense and running game will meet for the third time. I don’t think it will be a blowout like San Francisco’s last two trips there. Jim Harbaugh won in Seattle in 2011, but the offense’s struggles to get the play called in on time does worry me with the 12th man’s noise.

Still, I think the game is decided by which quarterback makes more plays and fewer mistakes. Colin Kaepernick has been playing better and has more weapons, but Russell Wilson has home-field and the better overall defense. While the Seattle offense (passing game) does concern me, I have to side with the home team here to pull out a close one thanks to that defense.

Final prediction: 49ers 17, Seahawks 20

See, I barely gave the game any attention with a week to prepare, so who knows what Sunday will bring. If you want to read a detailed preview of the NFC Championship, read Aaron Schatz’s preview, which I did contribute to for one part.

Manning vs. Brady: Just the Facts

So after Tom Curran accidentally sent the latest Patriot brigade my way on Twitter on Saturday, I did not bother trying to fight them off one-by-one. I instead stood back and lobbed my own Twitter grenade with this line:

Tom Brady is the most overrated playoff QB in NFL history. Period.

Now some wanted me to prove that statement, which I think I can eloquently do without even making a 100% effort. Simply put, for the people who fawn over Brady as the best playoff quarterback ever or one of the top two or even just “wayyyyy better” than Peyton Manning, what I’m about to go through should show just how silly that notion is.

In fact, I do think Manning is a better playoff quarterback than Brady. Factors out of his control just tend to work against his teams more than Brady’s, but more on that later.

Let’s begin with some help from a fictional (but realistic) character that I’m going to call BRADYGUY.

BRADYGUY: Scott, this is asinine. EVERYONE knows Tom Brady raises his game this time of year and Manning falls off from his high regular-season perch.

Oh yeah? Then explain this comparison of performance in the regular season against playoff teams (teams who made the playoffs that season) compared to actual postseason performance:

pmtbdapr

Note: I haven’t fully explained DAPR yet, but it’s a simple calculation of passing stats that adjusts for opposing defense. The higher the DAPR the better.

We could start with the obvious that Manning’s playoff stats are more than respectable, if not outright better than Brady’s. But there’s something more interesting than that here.

Somehow Manning remains within one tenth of his winning percentage, completion percentage, YPA and passer rating against playoff teams from the reg. season to the postseason. One tenth. His DAPR gets even better as he’s played tough defenses in January and February. Meanwhile Brady is the one who suffers the bigger declines in his performance, including half a yard per pass attempt.

Overall, Brady’s 6.74 YPA in the playoffs ranks 39th all time (min. 150 attempts). One of the best statistical indicators of success, YPA does not suddenly become irrelevant in the playoffs.

Brady’s DAPR also dips well below normal levels. Now in the bottom half of the table where games from non-playoff seasons are excluded (as are the games Manning rests in Weeks 16-17 and usually watches his team lose), Manning does experience decline. That’s natural when you’re not playing the 4-12 Raiders or Bills in January.

Still, Brady’s decline is steeper with a 7-point drop in passer rating and going down even more in the other categories compared to the top half. So no, there’s zero evidence Brady elevates his game in the playoffs, and Manning certainly does not decline more.

BRADYGUY: Come on, Scott. Brady’s been to seven AFC Championships and five Super Bowls! He’s playing better competition in the playoffs than Mr. Eight Times One-and-Done Manning.

Are you sure? I can’t see Manning losing to Eli’s 9-7/10-6 squads, nor do I believe playing the Jaguars at home (2005 and 2007) was harder than starting with the 2005 Steelers and 2007 Chargers. Hell, what would have happened last year if Manning got a slumping Houston team and Brady had to start with the champion Ravens that often make him struggle? But we have objective measures for team quality like DVOA to look at.

For quarterbacks with at least 5 playoff starts since 1989, here are the averages for their playoff opponents in Team DVOA, Defensive DVOA and Pass Defense DVOA (average season ranks also included as well as rank [Rk] on the list):

posos

There are actually 41 quarterbacks compared here, but I’m showing 30 so it’s easier to read (click to enlarge).

Manning’s played teams with an average DVOA of 20.1% (8th), -6.6% Defense DVOA (20th) and -6.5% Pass Defense DVOA (14th). Brady’s ranks are 26th, 31st and 22nd, respectively.

So yes, Manning has played better overall teams, better defenses and better pass defenses. He’s also played two-thirds (14/21) of his playoff games on a home/neutral field compared to 80% (20/25) for Brady, which does matter this time of year.

BRADYGUY: Fine, Scott. Teams who make the playoffs are usually pretty good. But you can’t overlook the biggest part: Tom Brady is 18-7, Peyton Manning is 10-11. THAT’S HUGE. How can you justify Manning only being 10-11?

What I can do is ask the proper question. Why is Manning 10-11 and Brady 18-7 when their level of play is not that different in the playoffs?

BRADYGUY: Heh, but IT IS MUCH DIFFERENT. Brady puts up more points to help his team win.

Brady averages 2.13 points per drive in the playoffs; Manning averages 2.10 points per drive.

This meager difference comes despite Brady starting his average drive nearly four yards closer to the end zone than Manning. It also comes despite other factors out of the QB’s control like missed FGs (7 for Manning, 6 for Brady) or fumbles on completions (6 for Manning, 3 for Brady). It also includes two one-play touchdown drives from last week where LeGarrette Blount just took the handoff from Brady for a touchdown.

Speaking of missed field goals, Manning is the only QB in NFL history to twice watch his last possession in a playoff game end with a missed FG (2000 Dolphins in OT, 2005 Steelers at end of regulation down 21-18). That was Mike Vanderjagt and those kicks were as wide right as they come.

BRADYGUY: Brady got his kickers closer.

No, Adam Vinatieri had to kick a 45-yard field goal in the snow after the Tuck Rule just to get to OT against Oakland. In the Superdome in Super Bowl 36, he kicked a 48-yard field goal on the last play of the game. In 2003 against the Titans on a -10 wind chill night, Brady completed one pass on a drive in a 14-14 tie, forcing Vinatieri to nail a 46-yard field goal for the game-winner. He did.

Meanwhile, Vanderjagt missed a 49-yard attempt in Miami — one he told the coach he could make and had made a 50-yard kick moments earlier in the game — and a 45-yard attempt in the RCA Dome against Pittsburgh.

Switch those kickers and ask Vanderjagt to make those kicks in Foxboro. Might be looking at an 0-2 start in the playoffs for Brady (both losses at home).

BRADYGUY: Manning knows best about losing at home in the playoffs. He’s done it five times (NFL record). How can you defend that?

Yes, Manning has five home playoff losses…by a combined 14 points — the smallest margin for the 30 quarterbacks with multiple home playoff losses.

HPOL

“See, the luck I’ve had can make a good man turn bad”

Brady lost by 15 points at home to the Ravens in last year’s AFC Championship and by 19 points to the Ravens in 2009. He played very poorly in those games as well. Notice how Manning had some of the very best statistics in those home playoff losses.

That’s the common theme. Manning can play well, but still lose. Brady can do anything and still seemingly get a win.

BRADYGUY: Brady puts his teams in better position to win because he makes fewer mistakes than Manning in the playoffs.

Both quarterbacks have 22 interceptions in the playoffs. Brady has 115 more attempts, but studying all 44 plays show some key differences.

Brady has 18 bad throws and 4 tipped balls. On the tips, one was tipped at the line, one hit Donte Stallworth in one hand, one hit Sam Aiken high in one hand and another practically got Ben Watson killed in 2009. Two picks were thrown desperately in the fourth quarter with the Patriots trailing 27-13 (2005 Denver) and 28-13 (2012 Ravens). That’s still not garbage time yet as one score sets up an onside kick opportunity in a one-score game either way. Brady was at the Baltimore 22 on last year’s pick.

Manning has 15 bad throws, two QB/WR miscommunications with Marvin Harrison (both vs. Ty Law/2006 Chiefs) and five tipped balls. On the tips, one hit Marcus Pollard’s hand too high, one hit Reggie Wayne in the hands high, one deflected right off Kenton Keith’s hands deep in the red zone, one hit Eric Decker and the refs missed the defensive pass interference and one last week hit Decker in the chest and was deflected and caught in the end zone by San Diego. Three of Manning’s picks were in obvious garbage time: down 34-0 vs. Jets (4Q), down 41-0 vs. Jets (4q), down 20-3 vs. 2004 Patriots (12 seconds left). Against the 2006 Ravens, he threw a bomb on 3rd-and-17 with a 12-6 lead that was intercepted by Ed Reed. That served as a punt.

Each quarterback has had one interception fumbled back to them. Manning’s came in 2009 (BAL) with a 17-3 lead in the 3rd quarter. Brady’s came in 2006 (SD) with the Patriots down 21-13 and 6:16 left in the 4th quarter.

Luck Advantage: Brady

Each quarterback has had a turnover on the field reversed to an incomplete pass. Brady’s was the fumble that introduced us to the Tuck Rule against the Raiders in 2001. Without the call, the game would have been over with Rich Gannon taking knees. Manning’s was in 2005 against Pittsburgh on a Troy Polamalu interception overturned to an incompletion. Manning still trailed 21-10 with 5:26 left. Manning also lost a fumble last season against the Ravens on a very similar play to the Tuck Rule, but did not get that call in the last possible case it could have been used before the NFL removed it this offseason.

Luck Advantage: Brady.

Brady turned the ball over three times at home in the first quarter alone in an ugly 2009 loss to the Ravens. Manning threw three interceptions at home against the 2006 Chiefs, but still completed 30-of-38 passes (including a spike and one drop) in a 23-8 win.

Oh, and which quarterback threw four interceptions in the 2003 AFC Championship? When watching the game, felt like both, but only one defense took advantage.

Brady has four red-zone interceptions. All four were bad/forced throws. Manning has five red-zone interceptions. The last three all deflected off his receiver and the very first came when he trailed 41-0 in 2002 (Jets) and had the ball at the 19.

Manning has thrown three pick-sixes in the playoffs, including last year’s botched no-call. Brady has none, because Ben Watson tracked down Champ Bailey to the 1-yard line and prevented a 100-yard return in 2005.

Brady has 10 fumbles (3 lost) in the playoffs. Manning has 5 fumbles (2 lost). Fumble Luck Advantage: Brady

Manning’s first lost fumble was a handoff on a running play to Joseph Addai in Super Bowl XLI. The Bears recovered. Brady is credited with a botched handoff fumble in the 2006 AFC Championship in Indy. The Patriots recovered it for a touchdown. Fumble Luck Advantage: Brady.

Brady only had 3 INTs when he started 10-0 in the playoffs, but clearly that part of his game has changed and he’s always been as or more likely to have a bad turnover in a close game or in the red zone than Manning in the playoffs.

BRADYGUY: Scott, maybe you didn’t hear me. 18-7 vs. 10-11…

No, I heard you. I’ve just yet to find anything compelling that shows why there’s such a difference in record based on what the quarterbacks and not their teammates and coaches have done.

BRADYGUY: Isn’t it obvious? CLUTCH. Brady’s oozing with IT, and Manning’s just a choker. That’s where you need to look.

Third downs are pretty important situations. In the playoffs, Manning has converted 43.41 percent of his third downs compared to 40.78 percent for Brady. That rate for Brady is about average for prominent active quarterbacks in the playoffs.

BRADYGUY: I bet Brady’s better on tougher situations like third-and-long that are harder to convert.

Not quite…

pmtb3dpo

Manning faces a longer third down on average and converts more often on the medium and long situations. Brady is a hell of a lot better on the quarterback sneak, regular or post. That is one area I will give him over anyone.

BRADYGUY: Meh, that’s just one down. What about the WHOLE game?

Well we have stats like Win Probability Added (WPA) and Expected Points Added (EPA) that can account for how much the quarterback is contributing to his team scoring and winning the game. Credit to Brian Burke at Advanced NFL Stats for these stats, which I’ve collected for quarterbacks with 5+ playoff starts since 1999:

POWPA

Once again, Manning comes out near the top, ahead of Brady, who looks somewhat pedestrian given his lofty winning record. Manning’s the only player in the top 8 with a losing record. These stats also control for garbage time, so there’s no point in bringing that up. Obviously Manning hasn’t played in many blowout games in the playoffs to compile meaningless stats.

BRADYGUY: Can’t Manning boost his EPA by throwing short touchdown passes like last week, while Brady loses out when his team rushes for six scores against the Colts?

The EPA gained from a short touchdown pass is actually quite minimal since you’re already expected to score a touchdown that close to the goal line.

Besides, if anyone has padded their postseason TD total on short touchdown passes, it’s Brady by a HUGE margin:

POTD

So out of 25 QBs all time with 15+ TD passes in the playoffs, no one throws them shorter than Brady, who has a staggering 29 scores from 1-9 yards out. Oh, and Manning has the deepest active TD pass among the active quarterbacks. Go figure.

These next two facts also fit the “Manning gets screwed, Brady has great luck” idea quite well.

Brady has the most playoff wins ever without a touchdown pass (4). Manning has the most playoff losses without an interception (5).

And no, if you remember from earlier, Manning did not have a fumble in any of those games without an interception. No other quarterback has more than 3 playoff losses without an interception.

This is the kind of stuff I pointed out last Saturday night with this table:

GQB

C and D are especially telling in how impotent Brady has been in half of his playoff wins, while Manning doesn’t look bad at all in comparison for the times he went one-and-done.

BRADYGUY: The difference has to be Brady gets it done when it matters most, and that’s when Manning folds. It’s WHEN they make their mistakes.

Well, for starters, the WPA would already pick up on a lot of that, but sure, let’s get silly.

How about when it’s a one-score game in the fourth quarter/overtime in the playoffs? Surely Brady’s going to show his superiority there, right?

1scopo

Oops, that didn’t work. Pro-Football-Reference shows neither guy can feel too good about what they’ve done in those situations, though they do have the most attempts by far. Yet there’s Manning doing better than Brady, who dips under 6.0 YPA again.

I didn’t even point out all the dropped passes yet, but we need to save something for next year’s edition.

BRADYGUY: But Scott, it’s when those mistakes happen that matters. Manning’s BURIED his team against the Saints and Ravens and…teams.

Of course you’d bring those two plays up. They’re the only two times Manning’s done that in crunch time in the playoffs, yet the stigma of him always doing that existed even before Super Bowl XLIV. Brady did it in back-to-back weeks in the 2006 playoffs.

  • Fourth quarter or overtime, down by 0-8 points in the playoffs: Brady and Manning have each thrown TWO interceptions in this situation.
  • Fourth quarter or overtime, down by 0-16 points in the playoffs: Brady has thrown FIVE interceptions compared to THREE for Manning.

So enough with the “Manning throws killer picks” thing. Brady has too and they came on days he played worse overall.

BRADYGUY: Okay, I think I got it. Brady has 7 game-winning drives in the playoffs and Manning is 1-9 at game-winning drive opportunities in the playoffs. I GOT YOU! Checkmate! Why can’t Manning finish in the playoffs like Brady?

He can’t? I think the numbers in the previous table show Manning’s just as adequate (or inadequate) as Brady in crunch time in the playoffs. It’s what happens around those quarterbacks that has created that 7-1 split in playoff GWDs, which I guess would be 8-0 if Brady’s defense came through for him (again).

You tell me how much of this is on Manning in GWD opportunities:

1999 Titans – Down 16-9, Manning threw a perfect pass downfield to Marvin Harrison, who dropped it on 3rd-and-22. Titans added a field goal and Edgerrin James later dropped a fourth-down pass.

2000 Dolphins – In overtime, Manning set up the field goal, but as mentioned, Vanderjagt shanked it badly and Manning never got another chance.

2003 Patriots – Despite his worst playoff game ever (4 INTs), Manning had the ball down 21-14 with 2:01 left. But we didn’t even get to see what he’d do on the drive thanks to some illegal defense from the Patriots that helped lead to reinforcement of illegal contact. The NFL quietly admitted both incomplete passes on third and fourth down should have been penalties on New England.

2005 Steelers – Getting one last chance from a Jerome Bettis fumble, Manning set up Vanderjagt for another classic shank in a 21-18 loss that would have sent the game to OT. Manning trailed 21-3 to start the fourth quarter.

2006 Patriots – Down 34-31, Manning drove the Colts 69 yards in 24 seconds — that’s pretty efficient — to let the running game finish off the game-winning TD drive with a minute left.

2007 Chargers – Manning threw a go-ahead touchdown pass to Anthony Gonzalez in the fourth quarter, but the Colts’ No. 1 defense allowed backup QB Billy Volek to drive for the game-winning touchdown. On his last drive, Manning threw good passes to Reggie Wayne (3rd down) and Dallas Clark (4th down), but both were dropped, including an embarrassing flub by Clark to end the game.

2008 Chargers – What GWD opportunity? Manning needed two yards to end the game on a third-and-2, but his rookie tight end forgot the snap count and didn’t get out of his break until it was too late. Manning was sacked and the Chargers tied the game late. Manning never got the ball in OT as the Chargers drove for the winning touchdown.

2009 Saints – Notice the lack of Manning mistakes? Here we go for a change. Manning threw the pick-six to Tracy Porter and that’s mostly on him. I’ll still say Reggie Wayne’s route was poorly run (just watch the feet), but Porter did a good job to jump the route and make the play.

2010 Jets – Manning only had three second-half possessions and ended each with a field goal, including the last one to take a 16-14 lead with 0:53 left. That usually holds up, but one big kick return by Antonio Cromartie crushed that idea and the Jets got the 17-16 win in Manning’s last game with the Colts.

2012 Ravens – Manning led a go-ahead 88-yard TD drive with 7:11 left, but obviously the Rahim Moore disaster stands out there.  In OT, the Broncos dropped Joe Flacco’s picks, but the Ravens made sure to hang onto Manning’s bad throw and bad decision.

So that’s all of them. Still want to say it’s the quarterback?

  • Manning’s lost 6 playoff games after leading in the fourth quarter. No other quarterback has more than 4 (Warren Moon).
  • Manning led in the last 40 seconds of the fourth quarter in four of those losses.
  • Manning’s led a go-ahead drive in the fourth quarter of his last three home playoff losses.
  • Manning is the only QB in NFL history with two lost comebacks in the playoffs. Brady has one (SB XLII). These are games where the QB did everything to meet the requirement for a 4QC except win the game.

Brady’s GWDs mostly consist of long field goals just like the ones Vanderjagt missed, a fumbled interception on fourth down in San Diego, missed FGs by the opponent, Drew Bennett not catching a pass in 2003 and other unbelievable failures like the Lee Evans-Sterling Moore play in the 2011 AFC Championship.

Isn’t that the crux of this whole thing? Joe Flacco throws a pass to knock Brady out of the playoffs, yet Sterling Moore defends it away in the end zone and Billy Cundiff chokes on the FG. The next year, Flacco throws a TD pass over Rahim Moore to force OT and Justin Tucker delivers on the 47-yard FG in cold conditions to end Manning’s season and make his INT his last throw of the game. Manning and Brady were helpless in these situations, yet Brady won despite playing an inferior game and Manning lost despite playing very well. Same old story.

Brady’s celebrated for his playoff GWDs, yet when it comes down to one guy stepping up and making that game-deciding play, more often than not we see someone not named Brady do it for New England and someone not named Manning screw it up for Indianapolis/Denver.

So when I say Brady’s the luckiest QB in playoff history and Manning’s the unluckiest, this is exactly what I’m talking about. No quarterbacks have more close wins (Brady) or close losses (Manning) in the playoffs than these two, yet all the stats (advanced or not) and tape show there’s no significant difference in how they played in these situations.

If anything, you’d think Manning would be the one with a 18-7 record and Brady would be under .500.

BRADYGUY: But Scott, isn’t a loss a loss? Manning has tied Favre for the most playoff losses (11) ever.

Well aren’t we talking about being the best? Do you want a guy that’s going to lose by 15-19 points at home and play like crap, or do you want someone who can give his team a chance to win every single playoff game? Sometimes that’s going to lead to some losses with perhaps a late-game turnover. Play long enough and that can happen to anyone. Is that really worse than the guy who shits the bed in the first quarter and never gives his team a chance? Manning also set a record with his 13th playoff berth this year.

Manning has had a fourth-quarter lead in his last 12 playoff games. No one else in NFL history has had a streak longer than 10 games.

Not even Brady.

BRADYGUY: Isn’t Brady just more consistent in the playoffs? Manning has a few huge games, but Brady is more likely to give you a solid performance each week.

No. Brady started his playoff career with five mediocre performances, five very good games to get to 10-0, but since then, he’s a mixed bag that hasn’t put together two good performances in back-to-back playoff games since Super Bowl 39 and January 2006 (Jacksonville).

Meanwhile Manning’s done this:

80pr

Not a passer rating fan? Understandable, but an 80, especially in the playoffs, is usually the indicator of an okay game.

I did see this from ESPN on best cumulative playoff Total QBR since 2006: Colin Kaepernick (85.4), Aaron Rodgers (77.2), Kurt Warner (75.3) and Peyton Manning (72.2).

Familiar names at the top, right? And Brady’s missing again. That doesn’t even factor in defense, like how Manning had a 60.6 QBR in the 2006 playoffs (yes, even with 3 TD and 7 INT). That year, Manning became the only QB in NFL history to beat the top three defenses in the same postseason.

BRADYGUY: …but 18-7 and 10-

I have to cut you off there, BRADYGUY, or else we might keep going until kickoff. I didn’t even crunch the numbers on Brady’s superior running game and defense in the postseason.

So taking this all in, seeing where Brady stacks up relative to Manning and other quarterbacks, there’s really nothing more misleading in the NFL today than 18-7 and 10-11. For that matter, Aaron Rodgers being 5-4 and Drew Brees being 6-5 also makes little sense relative to Brady.

Well, it makes sense to people who can see it’s a team game and no team has played better than the Patriots since 2001, but that doesn’t mean the QB is always deserving of the credit.

People don’t like to hear it, but at some point you have to chalk up the record to better team play and downright good fortune. You know, it’s a team game after all, but for some reason every Marvin Harrison dropped ball or Edgerrin James fumble is overlooked because god forbid Deion Branch or Kevin Faulk could make those plays for Brady. (They did)

They weren’t high draft picks, they can’t possibly be great. Manning lost the playoff game, he can’t possibly have played well.

S.O.S. for a decade-plus now.

Now some will say I put a jinx on Manning today by putting this out there. That’s impossible. The guy’s had a playoff jinx on him his whole career. I’m not adding anything to it. I’m just pointing out the facts instead of dropping to my knees for Brady and Belichick in the playoffs like too many other writers and fans have done.

And I’m still picking the Patriots to win this game.

Oh, About the AFC Championship…

Do I still have the energy to go past 4,000 words? Sure, but I’ll keep this preview relatively short.

When the Patriots won aforementioned game in San Diego in the 2006 playoffs, that was the last straw for me. I said I wouldn’t pick against the Patriots in a big game again. Something ridiculous always seems to happen for them. So I picked them to beat the Colts and they choked away an 18-point lead the following week. They blew a perfect season at 18-0 in 2007. “We’re only going to score 17 points?” No, 14. Despite going 16-0 in the regular season at home in 2008-09, the Patriots went one-and-done in back-to-back years against the Ravens and Jets, teams they beat in the regular season including a 45-3 smacking. They should have lost to the 2011 Ravens and did lose again to the Giants in SB 46, despite being favored. They were the favorites again last year when a Ravens team I thought had a great chance to go in there and win did just that, holding the Pats to 13 points (second-half shutout).

(Note: a lot of this further applies to why Brady is the most overrated playoff QB).

All seven of the playoff losses under Belichick/Brady have been rematches. This game with Denver is a rematch. The last game really doesn’t apply too much in that the venue is different, the weather will be much better, there’s no Rob Gronkowski and Von Miller (among others) and John Fox is back on the sideline.

While you probably think I’m dying to pick Denver (and I am, and I like, but not love, their chances), I’m not going to do it.

Can’t.

A depleted Jack Del Rio defense that has a tendency to leave guys wide open on third and fourth down? Uh-oh. For as much talk as there’s been about NE’s running game, and the run will be huge for both teams, I wouldn’t be surprised if they come out throwing with Brady early and often. This isn’t a “do what we do every week” team. They adjust for each opponent and the weakness in Denver is the pass defense. The run defense has been solid all year with and without Miller, so it would be a surprise to see them gashed there. The pass is the problem without Chris Harris and without Miller, who played great in NE, rushing Brady.

Quentin Jammer and Kayvon Webster may just combine to Rahim Moore another season for Denver. Somehow Julian Edelman and Danny Amendola continue to get open underneath when it’s painfully obvious Brady is going to them with the ball. Do I trust Del Rio to adjust? Of course not. New England’s offense should do fine. Shaun Phillips has to have a huge game against Marcus Cannon in Miller’s absence. That’s a matchup to watch.

On the other side (both sides, but moreso on this matchup), I’ll be curious to see how much contact is allowed in the secondary. That’s NE’s best hope to jam these receivers and throw off the timing routes. Manning needs to work on the 8-15 yard range in this game and not try to bomb it out. Wes Welker will want to have a huge game, but I think this is about Thomas & Thomas again.

I have been getting a lot of Patriot fans talking out of both sides of their mouth this week. On one end, it’s “Manning has the best weapons ever!” On the other, it’s “Talib and Jamie Collins will shut down Thomas & Thomas, Eric Decker is super soft and Julian Edelman could cover Welker AND outplay him at receiver and punt returner!” Okay, so which is it?

I think the Patriots can get some stops in this game, but it’s going to be hard to shut down the passing game that never got going last time due to the crazy start with fumbles. Manning should have a much better game this time, but any 400 yards/4 TD expectations are lunacy. The Patriots rarely give up 30+ points of offense in 13 years under Belichick. I think they have to hold Denver under that to win this one. I still think Demaryius is the key guy that makes this offense go, so he can’t be under 50 yards for Denver to pull this one out.

This is Manning-Brady XV, but remember, these games have never been a shootout. Maybe we’ll get that for an instant classic, but I’d sooner expect Denver to fall behind by 17 points and make a dramatic comeback again. Denver’s constant ball security issues bother me. Last week they had a lot of bad plays with drops, fumbles and stumbles, but maybe that was a little rust and they’ll be sharper this week.

They’ll have to be. The Patriots are not the Chargers. Belichick won’t mail in a conservative gameplan like new job-seeking Whisenhunt did and the Patriots will capitalize on every little mistake. New England hasn’t been impressive on the road, though their best road game was their last (at Baltimore).

At the end of the day, I see a Denver team with a better QB and better receivers, but the Patriots hold the other advantages. Well, except for home-field this time. What do you think historically wins more of these big games?

I’ll call my shot here. In the nature of what I’ve presented above, this game clearly has two possible endings: a game-ending Brady interception or a dropped pass by Wes Welker on fourth down.

Either way, we already know which QB will get more credit for a win and which will get more blame for a loss. I hope to enjoy a potentially historic Sunday and do what I do every week: watch the games, write later what actually decided the outcome and who to hold accountable. Isn’t that the easiest way to do this job? Why do some feel the need to continue a decade-old narrative, facts and new information be damned?

Final score: Patriots 30, Broncos 27

And I am rooting for Denver-Seattle, because I want to see the best offense play the best defense. “So for once in my life, let me get what I want…”

Defenses Continue to Hurt Themselves in Today’s NFL

~ Scott ~ 2 Comments

I’m not a X’s & O’s guy, but most reading this already know that. I do statistical analysis and watch a lot of games to pick up on trends and how certain teams/players perform on the field.

What I think I have is a common sense approach to how the game should be played. Part of my educational background is studying how to limit motions to improve efficiency for various processes. Leaving a team’s best receiver wide open is probably a terrible decision no matter if the defense that was specifically called was done correctly to the coaches’ wishes. Now this is a rant that literally just popped in my head so this may get branched out into a legitimate article later, but for now, just bear with me.

In preparation for the AFC Championship between Denver and New England, I have been pointing out how limited the New England passing game is without any tight end threat or even a real vertical threat at this point. It’s basically all Julian Edelman and Danny Amendola (Austin Collie when they need a breather) running short routes, often from the slot, and yet no one has really found a way to shut it down yet. Shane Vereen can catch passes out of the backfield, but he’s not Marshall Faulk. New England has mostly worked on the running game lately, but the passing game will be crucial for the remainder of the postseason and it has to be these same receivers.

So when coaches who get paid millions of dollars like Chuck Pagano, John Fox and Jack Del Rio sit down to prepare for this Rob Gronkowski-less offense, how can they not see the same things I see from my home? I’m not going to get into the statistics for the increase in short passes, but we know most teams throw shorter more often today. Yards per completion are down as the spread/shotgun offense is used more. Yet we still see defenses play this archaic style of trying not to get beat deep, even when the very best vertical  passing games will be lucky to hit 30 passes more than 20 yards down the field in a given season.

Tom Brady, for example, is 14/58 on passes thrown 21+ yards this season. Is that really something to fear? That’s in line with his previous seasons too. You can even leave a guy open and there’s a decent shot he will miss him, like he missed Amendola against the Saints this season. With the way offenses are setting records for points and yardage these days, giving up a quick strike is hardly the burden it used to be. But alas, I’m ranting again and need to get to what I saw in Saturday night’s game against Indianapolis.

Edelman caught 105 passes this year. He’s clearly Brady’s No. 1 target, so the Colts naturally should counter with putting their best starting cornerback Vontae Davis on him. That’s smart. But look what happens on this play early in the first quarter. It was 2nd-and-9 with Brady in the shotgun so there’s no reason not to expect a pass. You can see Davis lined up on Edelman at the snap:

rant1

Here’s what I would have done on the play as a defensive coordinator (and yes, I only have Paint and not Photoshop):

rant2

I shadow Edelman with Davis so he would pick him up on the crossing route. I let my linebacker, who has no chance with Edelman here, come up to prevent the running back having open space in the left flat. There, those two players are taken care of with the proper matchup for their skill talent and you can see the right side is matched up well already too.

What did the Colts do?

rant3

Davis took a few leisurely steps backwards and ended up covering nothing on the play because Brady’s pass was already out  and easily caught by Edelman, who had a lot of open field to run after the catch and turn it into a 25-yard gain.

How can any coach justify Davis’ defensive assignment on that play? It’s not like Brady’s going to pull it down and run and make Davis the last line of defense. That’s not Kaepernick out there. Is RB Brandon freakin’ Bolden out of the backfield worthy of Davis’ coverage? You mean to tell me your best corner isn’t better off covering the guy with 105 catches? Is Darrelle Revis, under Rex Ryan at least, really the only cornerback capable of covering a guy all over the field? Even that performance was probably overblown.

Say what you want about the late Al Davis, but that concept of playing tight, bump-and-run man-to-man coverage makes the most logical sense. Throw off all these timing routes with the contact you’re allowed to have within five yards. Why are coaches leaving a team’s favorite receiver wide open or letting him breeze past linebackers that have no hope of covering him? Yeah, you can mix it up with man and zone, but what value does leaving Davis where he was on that play have for the defense? What in the hell is he going to limit there that a linebacker can’t?

It’s hard to play defense now, but a lot of that is self-inflicted when guys, by instruction or not, are letting receivers go and watching action they have no shot of doing anything about.

If you think I’m freaking out over one play, consider what happened in the second quarter. This time Davis did stick with Edelman out of the slot, but Edelman just beat him on the catch after a play-action pass. Still, the defense was there to limit this to a 12-yard gain instead of a 25-yard gain like the earlier crosser. You can see the defense in great position to wrap Edelman up at the 40:

rant4

Well, Edelman broke tackles and gained 15 more yards to turn it into a 27-yard gain. So it’s poor defense either way, but it’s a hell of a lot better to live with the designed coverage on that play than the free release and easy 25 yards on the first play.

Then again, for a coach who thought punting on 4th-and-1 in the fourth quarter down 43-22 was the right call, is it even a stretch he would think having Davis spy the running back would be better than following the guy most likely to get the ball?

2013 NFL Predictions

~ Scott ~ 5 Comments

It’s time the tale were told…of how I see the 2013 NFL season unfolding. With some help from The Smiths, each team gets a song title to summarize the theme of their season, a key fact and the record I predicted by going through each game of the season.

Here are last year’s picks. You can bookmark this and shove it in my face when it goes horribly wrong, but I was not accounting for future injuries and at least I stuck my neck out there with a vision of what is virtually unpredictable.

NFC EAST

1. New York Giants (10-6)

The Smiths say: “What Difference Does It Make?”

The Fact: Tom Coughlin’s Giants have started 5-2 or better in nine consecutive seasons, tying the NFL record (1975-83 Cowboys).

Every year we know this team gets off to a strong start, hits a midseason slump, then it’s a matter of recovering for a Super Bowl run or missing the playoffs entirely. The Giants have actually missed the playoffs in three of the last four seasons. Many of the key pieces return, so that should help. At the end of the day, it does not matter what happens all season. With the NFC East, it will come down to the Week 17 game in New Jersey between the Giants and Redskins. I have the Giants winning that one, hence the division title.

2. Washington Redskins (10-6)

The Smiths say: “These Things Take Time”

The Fact: According to Football Outsiders, the 2012 Redskins used play-action passing more than any offense since 2005 (about 42%).

Operation patience indeed. However, the Redskins are wasting no time in bringing Robert Griffin III back from the ACL injury. He did not finish three games due to injury last season. That’s as many as Peyton Manning (0), Tom Brady (1) and Aaron Rodgers (2) have combined for their careers. I want to see him take better care of himself as he took many big hits when running. I also want to see him improve in obvious passing situations. RG3 saw his passing YPA drop to 5.84 on third down compared to 8.98 on all other downs. That’s a massive difference. The offense will still be efficient and balanced, the defense should get better with Brian Orakpo’s return, but I still have too many questions about this team before picking them to reach the next level. These things do take time.

3. Dallas Cowboys (8-8)

The Smiths say: “There Is a Light That Never Goes Out” (video)

The Fact: Jason Garrett has coached 40 games for Dallas (21-19 record). Twenty-eight times the Cowboys and/or their opponent had the ball in the fourth quarter in a one-score game. Eleven times the Cowboys lost by surrendering a game-winning drive.

I was drinking the Dallas Kool-Aid last season. They sure sweeten it each year as no matter if the team is coming off consecutive 8-8 seasons or the fact they have one playoff win since 1997, the Cowboys are always in the spotlight. I know Romo’s better than most give him credit for. He is the highest-rated fourth-quarter passer in NFL history (100.7 passer rating including playoffs) and he did have five comebacks last year to make Week 17 relevant. Dez Bryant’s a star, Monte Kiffin should get more out of the defense than Rob Ryan ever could, but there’s still too many holes on the offensive line and the general inconsistent play from this team that I cannot pick anything better than 8-8 again for them.

4. Philadelphia Eagles (5-11)

The Smiths say: “Some Girls Are Bigger Than Others”

The Fact: When expanding out the Bill Walsh Coaching Tree, 28 of the 32 current head coaches fit on its branches. Chip Kelly is the only to have no NFL coaching experience.

I know there’s real excitement for Oregon’s Chip Kelly making the jump to the NFL, but I just do not see the impact in year one, especially with a declining quarterback like Michael Vick as the starter. Turnovers have killed the Eagles since the late portion of the 2010 season. This must be cleaned up, but Vick running a quick-decision, gimmicky offense sounds like a recipe for disaster. Three-and-out much? I hope Kelly finds himself the right quarterback as I would like to see what innovations he can bring to the NFL.

AFC EAST

1. New England Patriots (12-4)

The Smiths say: “Stop Me If You Think You’ve Heard This One Before”

The Fact: Patriots have played all 12 teams to make the Super Bowl since 2006. They are 5-11 in those games (0-5 since 2011). They are 2-9 against the eventual champion.

You can put 12 wins in the bank for New England. A white, undrafted slot receiver from Texas Tech will lead the team in targets and receptions. Rob Gronkowski will return, dominate and probably get hurt again. The running game and offensive line will be great. The defense will play a bend-but-don’t-break style and rely on takeaways and big stops. Then in the playoffs, the Patriots will lose in a game they were favored to win over a team they played much better against in the regular season. If any of this sounds familiar, that’s because it is in large part what the team has done over the last eight years since last winning a Super Bowl. This year just throws in a murder plot to shake things up. The seven playoff exits have all come to teams the Patriots played in the regular season. New England will play Denver, Houston, Baltimore and the NFC South this season.

2. Miami Dolphins (6-10)

The Smiths say: “Last Night I Dreamt That Somebody Loved Me”

The Fact: Dolphins are the only team since 2000 to not have a quarterback pass for either 4,000 yards or throw more than 20 touchdowns.

The falsely reported demise of the Patriots seemed to favor Miami more than anyone in the East, but this division looks awful to me once you get past New England. Mike Wallace is a high-priced signing the Dolphins will learn to regret. Sure, he’ll help out an offense who had three touchdown passes to wide receivers in 2012, but he will not run every route and will not adjust to the ball as well as Brian Hartline did last year. Ryan Tannehill’s improvement is the biggest factor for this team, but I still see the offense holding them back from doing anything significant.

3. Buffalo Bills (3-13)

The Smiths say: “Frankly, Mr. Shankly” (video)

The Fact: Buffalo is the only NFL team who has failed to make the playoffs since 2000.

But sometimes I’d feel more fulfilled, making Christmas cards with the mentally ill.

Honestly, the Bills corrode my soul. For as long as I have been following the NFL closely, they are as boring as any team. They are onto their sixth era in terms of a coach/quarterback since having Marv Levy/Jim Kelly. This team did spend many resources on the defensive line, fired defensive coordinator Dave Wannstedt (always a good idea) and they have some exciting skill players in Stevie Johnson and C.J. Spiller. There’s something to build on here, but where’s the quarterback? EJ Manuel was an iffy pick as the first quarterback off the board at No. 16, which usually means bad things, and now he’s hurt. Jeff Tuel? An impending Week 1 massacre at the hands of the Patriots could send this team on a downward spiral to where they are wondering how good Teddy Bridgewater would look in Buffalo.

4. New York Jets (3-13)

The Smiths say: “Bigmouth Strikes Again”

The Fact: Games involving the 2009, 2010 and 2012 Jets account for the three lowest completion percentages (team and opponent combined) in the NFL since 2005. The 2011 Jets rank 10th. That’s a sample size of 256 teams.

With Miami’s offense in the post-Marino era, the Bills and the Jets, it’s no wonder New England has owned this division since 2001. I think this is the end of the road for Rex Ryan and Mark Sanchez in New York. It almost has to be. They made a run at it the first two years, but it’s time to blow this thing up and start over. Trading away your best player in Darrelle Revis was one of those steps, but there’s more to be done. Ryan should stick to being a defensive coordinator. Sanchez may want to see if ESPN will start him over Jesse Palmer in the booth.

NFC NORTH

1. Green Bay Packers (12-4)

The Smiths say: “This Night Has Opened My Eyes”

The Fact: Aaron Rodgers is 0-18 at fourth-quarter comeback opportunities against teams .500 or better.

As long as Rodgers is playing at a high level, you have to like the Packers in this division. One of the most competitive teams in the league, there were some cracks last year against the Giants and 49ers. That’s worrisome as we already know too well about this team’s failure in close games. They usually do not get blown out, but the stunningly bad playoff loss in San Francisco was an eye opener.

It looks clear that 2010 was the outlier for Green Bay, especially in regards to Dom Capers’ defense. In 2009, the Packers were lit up by elite quarterbacks and allowed 45 points in regulation to Arizona in the playoffs. The Giants scored 37 in Green Bay in the 2011 NFC Divisional, including a Hail Mary before halftime. Then last season, Colin Kaepernick ran for a NFL QB-record 181 yards and piles up 45 points and 579 yards in his playoff debut. The regular season is not a big challenge, but good luck to this team avoiding all those talented NFC teams in the playoffs who have the right pieces to beat them.

2. Chicago Bears (9-7)

The Smiths say: “Well I Wonder”

The Fact: Marc Trestman has worked under 11 different NFL head coaches before finally getting his first crack at the job.

Chicago is one of the teams that interest me as there are some real unknowns here with Trestman coming over from the CFL. Yes, he has plenty of NFL experience, but this is his first year on the job and the first time Chicago’s gone offensive-minded at coach in decades. There’s no more Brian Urlacher on the defense and Jay Cutler may have his best offense in place. This team has potential to make the playoffs, but Cutler’s lack of career progression and the expected regression on defense keeps them at 9-7 and out of the playoffs for me. But this is a major dark horse candidate who could be exciting to watch.

3. Detroit Lions (5-11)

The Smiths say: “Pretty Girls Make Graves”

The Fact: Matthew Stafford is 1-23 against teams with a winning record.

I wanted to pick a few more wins for this team after last year’s close losses, but the schedule was too tough, which brings us to the fact. I wanted to pick something different since I have used this one so much this offseason, but it’s still very much a defining part of this Jim Schwartz/Stafford era. Detroit cannot beat the good teams and the Lions will likely be playing many of them this season with this schedule. The song title references how the Lions have a history of a great skill player (Barry Sanders, Calvin Johnson) dominating each year in stunning fashion, but at the end of the day that individual greatness cannot compensate for overall team weakness.

4. Minnesota Vikings (5-11)

The Smiths say: “Accept Yourself”

The Fact: Minnesota played with the lead 58.7 percent of the time (credit to Chase Stuart’s research) in 2012, which ranked second.

This is one projection I have not sugarcoated. I think the Vikings overachieved with the 10-6 record. I think the defense is mediocre and not improved enough or good enough to play with the lead as often this year. I do not believe in dink-and-dunk Christian Ponder, who has to shine for this team to take the next step as Adrian Peterson will not be as great this year. He’s superhuman if he does. The “constant eight-man front” stuff is still a myth. I also hated the Cordarrelle Patterson trade-up pick and the Greg Jennings signing for that matter.

I do at least love second-year kicker Blair Walsh. Add it all up and I see double-digit losses with that schedule and this roster.

AFC NORTH

1. Cincinnati Bengals (13-3)

The Smiths say: “The Headmaster Ritual”

The Fact: Cincinnati’s 22-year drought without a playoff win is the fifth longest in the Super Bowl era.

It’s not even funny how uncomfortable I feel giving the Bengals 13 wins, but it’s probably just me trying to build too specific of a story in the AFC as you will see. I do think this team has the potential to field the best defense in the league. Andy Dalton was horrific on third down (converted 28.3%), but maybe adding TE Tyler Eifert and a third year with stud A.J. Green and others will aid a breakout season. The AFC is very top heavy.

It also should be do-or-die time for Marvin Lewis as I cannot see him returning without either a first-round bye or a playoff win. Ten years in one place without a playoff win has only been done by Jim Mora (New Orleans). Lewis would be at 11 years if the Bengals fail again this postseason, assuming they get there. It would be a franchise first to make the playoffs three years in a row.

2. Baltimore Ravens (10-6)

The Smiths say: “I Know It’s Over” (video)

The Fact: Baltimore has won a playoff game in five consecutive seasons. Only the 1991-96 Dallas Cowboys won at least one playoff game in six consecutive seasons.

The last seven defending Super Bowl champions have failed to win a single playoff game. It truly is a whole new season, and it should be easier for the Ravens to accept that last year was the past. Look at the partial list of players who have left the team: Ray Lewis, Ed Reed, Paul Kruger, Anquan Boldin, Bernard Pollard, Stringer Bell, etc. Everyone’s leaving Baltimore, which might make it the rich Joe Flacco’s team, but is he great enough to carry them? Fortunately the defense may be better and Terrell Suggs probably has a big enough mouth to fire the team up before the game.

I still have Baltimore making the playoffs, but they will not advance once this time. I think last year was reaching the summit after a five-year journey and things will be much different moving forward as they try to return.

3. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6)

The Smiths say: “Cemetry Gates”

The Fact: Steelers have been on a pattern of playoffs-playoffs-no playoffs every year since 2001. Last year was the “no playoffs” year.

My uncle does not have the internet and he wanted me to let you know that “you heard it here first” that the Steelers will not even be a .500 team, which last happened in 2003 (6-10). Even if they finish 7-9, he may end up more right than I am as I already regret this pick of 10 wins. I just think the schedule is very favorable, though when do the Steelers ever capitalize on all of the winnable games on their schedule? The offensive line also looks to be as bad as ever, which is really saying something given past standards. It’s also not smart to pick three teams to win 10+ games in the same division, but so be it.

The AFC has, at best, eight quality teams, and I still have the Steelers missing the playoffs on tie-breakers with teams like the Ravens and Colts. The core talent is here to win now, but the problem is so much of it is brittle and susceptible to injury at any moment. Then without proper depth, you lose games. This defense is on borrowed time and Ben Roethlisberger’s not getting any younger. Any shot at doing something great must be realized now before it’s too late.

4. Cleveland Browns (6-10)

The Smiths say: “Unloveable”

The Fact: The Browns have lost 11+ games in five straight seasons.

Different year, same old shit. Okay, so a few more touchdowns, a better year from Trent Richardson and an improved defense, but still a very incomplete project.

NFC SOUTH

1. Atlanta Falcons (11-5)

The Smiths say: “How Soon Is Now?” (video)

The Fact: No team has won the NFC South in consecutive years, but the Falcons (5) now have the longest streak ever of consecutive winning seasons by any of the four teams in the division.

How soon is now? Clearly it’s Super Bowl or bust as Tony Gonzalez plans to retire after the year (for good, I assume). That will leave an awfully big hole in this offense without any real replacement or great receiver depth after the great Roddy White and Julio Jones. This is Matt Ryan’s year to shine (again). If he is the next Peyton Manning, then year six (2003) was a huge climb to MVP status, so let’s see what Ryan can do with a familiar offense that has added Steven Jackson, who should only be a marginal upgrade to Michael Turner. The defense is shaky, but they usually play well at home. I do not expect them to repeat as the No. 1 seed as no team has claimed the league’s best record in back-to-back years since the 1989-90 49ers.

I expect big things from this team.

2. New Orleans Saints (11-5)

The Smiths say: “Back to the Old House”

The Fact: Games involving the 2012 Saints included 13,616 yards of offense; the most in NFL history.

Sean Payton’s back, so is everything okay in New Orleans? Not quite if we are talking about Super Bowl aspirations. The defense is very much a work in progress, and Rob Ryan was a terrible hire if you ask me. Losing so many players to injury (Victor Butler, Will Smith, Jonathan Vilma) is a bad start to the year for a unit who will likely hold the team back in the end. Expecting a more efficient year from Drew Brees now that he has a real coach again.

3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-10)

The Smiths say: “Shoplifters of the World Unite” (video)

The Fact: Since winning Super Bowl XXXVII, Tampa Bay is 69-91 (.431) in the regular season and 0-2 in the playoffs.

Last year the offense was revamped by bringing in Vincent Jackson and drafting Doug Martin. The Buccaneers went at it again on defense this time with the trade for Darrelle Revis and big signing of Dashon Goldson. Stealing those assets from other teams should help a defense who really struggled against the pass. This is another team I wanted to pick more wins for, but it’s hard to predict much more than six. The schedule’s tough and Josh Freeman’s wildly inconsistent. Maybe an improved defense will help him settle down, knowing he has a running game and does not have to score as many points to win.

4. Carolina Panthers (5-11)

The Smiths say: “Nowhere Fast”

The Fact: Cam Newton is 2-15 (.118) at game-winning drive opportunities; the worst record among active starters.

The Ron Rivera/Cam Newton era has been plagued by an inability to close games. I was surprised to come back with a 5-11 record, as I see a team who improved on defense, but changed really nothing on offense. For that reason, the offense should be very similar, which is sometimes a good thing. Do not buy into the read-option myth. If this team could have closed more games in crunch time the last two years, they would have won 9-10 games. If they play the same way this year and do close, they can win 9-10, but still I come up with 5-11. We must see improvement from Newton and the bleeding must stop late in the game or else Rivera will be fired. I also fear for this offense should Steve Smith (34) suddenly fall off. They have not developed any other receivers and the running backs are overpaid and underutilized.

AFC SOUTH

1. Houston Texans (13-3)

The Smiths say: “I Started Something I Couldn’t Finish”

The Fact: Against playoff teams, Matt Schaub is 11-24 (.314) as a starter, including a 7-11 record since 2010.

Before the Colts find more talent to put around Andrew Luck, these are crucial seasons for Houston, who has gone from expansion to .500 to a team who expects to be in Super Bowl contention. Matt Schaub was hurt in 2011, while the defense had no answers for Tom Brady and similar quarterbacks last year. That’s a problem when you play in the AFC. Houston has to get over the hump by beating a team better than Cincinnati in the postseason. This year should provide another chance as I think they should have a better team after finally adding a wide receiver to pair up with Andre Johnson, J.J. Watt is the best defensive player in the NFL, Brian Cushing is back and the running game is still going to be very good. They just need to finish the job and play some more home games in January. Falling to the No. 3 seed was a killer in 2012.

2. Indianapolis Colts (10-6)

The Smiths say: “You Just Haven’t Earned It Yet, Baby”

The Fact: Indianapolis has 32 takeaways since 2011; the fewest in any two-season span in NFL history.

Many will want to pick the Colts to regress sharply after last season’s crazy results, but this schedule looks pretty favorable to me. In fact Football Outsiders predicts it to be the easiest in the league. The Colts may start no better than 4-4, but there’s not a game in the second half of the season they cannot win. I see 10 wins and another Wild Card as Andrew Luck plays more efficiently under Pep Hamilton, T.Y. Hilton takes some of the torch from Reggie Wayne and at least one of the young tight ends explodes. It would be nice if the defense could actually get some takeaways for a change, but that unit’s going to be a work in progress as will the marginally-improved offensive line.

This is the team of the future in the AFC, but they just do not have the talent or track record right now to be in serious contention for Super Bowl XLVIII.

3. Jacksonville Jaguars (4-12)

The Smiths say: “London” and “That Joke Isn’t Funny Anymore”

The Fact: Cecil Shorts and Vincent Jackson (TB) were the only receivers with at least 50 receptions, 900 yards, 7 touchdowns and 17.0 YPC in 2012. (Hey, we’re looking for a positive.)

The Jaguars get two songs, because the jokes about moving the team to London have not stopped. It’s a sign that this team needs to get back to winning to end that silliness. They seem to be moving in the right direction with a new coach and some franchise-type talent on the offensive side of the ball, but it’s going to come down to the quarterback. I do not believe in Blaine Gabbert as the long-term answer, but the next quarterback may be. How would Tajh Boyd feel about Jacksonville?

4. Tennessee Titans (4-12)

The Smiths say: “Panic” (video)

The Fact: Tennessee was odd in that it had a 3-2 record at comeback opportunities, yet finished 6-10 overall. That is due to having six losses by at least 21 points, which was the highest total in 2012.

As has been my customary line on the Titans lately, I have no idea what Mike Munchak wants from this team. Jake Locker is a mobile, inaccurate quarterback, yet they keep drafting all kinds of receivers for him to miss. Chris Johnson is annoyingly boom-or-bust and the defense was dreadful last season. There’s just no sense of direction here and nothing on this roster that gets you excited about the future. Maybe this is the Jadeveon Clowney destination.

NFC WEST

1. Seattle Seahawks (12-4)

The Smiths say: “You’ve Got Everything Now”

The Fact: Seattle outscored its last eight opponents 272-111 (+161). Only the 2010 Patriots (+174) and 1984 49ers (+177) finished a regular season in more dominant fashion.

Well, I did pick Seattle to be the league’s next dynasty, so winning a division title would be a step in the right direction. The Seahawks are loaded and could be the league’s most balanced team in terms of the run and pass over both sides of the ball. They finished 2012 in great fashion with Russell Wilson playing out of his mind. He’s not a rookie anymore and you can win a Super Bowl with a sophomore quarterback. They return the same offense for the most part. Should Percy Harvin return late in the season, that’s just an added dimension to this offense. If this team gets home-field advantage, watch out NFC.

2. San Francisco 49ers (12-4)

The Smiths say: “A Rush and a Push and the Land Is Ours”

The Fact: Including playoffs and excluding kneel downs, Colin Kaepernick averaged 8.77 YPA passing and 8.75 YPC rushing in 2012.

No team may have a more poetic song choice than the 49ers, for if they would have called better plays in the red zone in the Super Bowl, they may have been 6-0 in the big game. The red zone has been a serious issue for this offense the last two years. It’s really one of the few flaws for Jim Harbaugh’s squad, which dominates the trenches, turnovers and running game. Colin Kaepernick was incredible in his shortened season, making his first full year as a starter one of the most anticipated ever. With some offseason injuries, I think Seattle pulls out the head-to-head games to allow for them to win the division, but we could see a third matchup between these two.

3. St. Louis Rams (6-10)

The Smiths say: “Stretch Out and Wait”

The Fact: After beating the Cardinals to go to 3-2 last season, the Rams ended a 71-month streak of not being over .500.

Sort of like the Dolphins of the NFC. This is just not a team I believe in right now. Sam Bradford must show franchise-caliber play, because if it does not happen by year four (where he’s at now), then it rarely ever does. Bradford is 2-21-1 (.104) when the Rams allow more than 17 points. They have added more weapons around him, but he is still the one operating things. The defense should keep them in many games, but I think most teams on the Rams’ schedule are better than they are, hence another losing record.

4. Arizona Cardinals (5-11)

The Smiths say: “Paint a Vulgar Picture”

The Fact: Arizona led the league with a 71.2 defensive passer rating; the highest rating ever for a league leader.

This is another one I feel strongly about. If Bruce Arians does not adjust his usual style of offense, it will be a disaster in Arizona. Carson Palmer cannot do the things Ben Roethlisberger and Andrew Luck did under pressure. The king of garbage time will find Larry Fitzgerald with the ball quite a bit, but issues in the red zone and a lack of a good tight end will hurt the scoring numbers. Not to mention the offensive line still stinks and guard Jonathan Cooper is done for the year with a broken leg. The defense is also going to regress from last season, so any offensive improvement will likely be negated. I can’t see any more than six wins from this team.

AFC WEST

1. Denver Broncos (13-3)

The Smiths say: “Please, Please, Please Let Me Get What I Want” (video)

The Fact: In games where he had a fourth-quarter lead since 2006, Peyton Manning is 74-5 (.937) in the regular season and 6-5 (.545) in the playoffs. The 74-5 includes a 40-5 record when protecting a one-score lead.

Teams give us a million reasons to not pick them to win the Super Bowl, but only a few reasons to pick them. If you did not already know, Denver has been my Super Bowl pick all year. They certainly had a discouraging offseason from executives with DUIs, Elvis Dumervil’s fax fiasco, Von Miller’s six-game suspension, injuries to notable players and more bad fumble luck in the preseason. Brandon Stokley has joined Dumervil in Baltimore, so Wes Welker cannot afford to get hurt.

Is it not all about finishing in the playoffs for this team? We know Manning can lead a team to 10 wins blindfolded. Miller will be back soon enough and fresher. Denver will play many notable games in the regular season.  It’s just a matter of finishing in January, because Manning will put this team in a position to do so. He’s had a fourth-quarter lead in 11 straight playoff games. That’s never been done. The fact his teams are 6-5 in those games is appalling. Just look at the fact above.

Good times for a change. See, the luck I’ve had can make a good man turn bad.

What more can I say about the BS Manning playoff narrative? (Don’t worry, I will have more in January on it). No quarterback has had more bad luck with things happening out of his control. It’s gotten to the point where in a big game, you should expect him to play well, but something unusual is going to happen that will lead to a loss. Rahim Moore was about as unusual as it gets last season, but that also got me thinking.

Sometimes you have to suffer a bad defeat to come back stronger the next year. Baltimore’s loss in New England in 2011 was as hard as they get with Lee Evans not holding onto the ball and then Billy Cundiff missing the field goal. They rebounded. The Giants blew their season in 2010 by giving up a 21-point lead to Philadelphia (that’s bad enough) before the DeSean Jackson punt return touchdown. They rebounded. Aaron Rodgers missed a game-winning touchdown pass and then had a fumble-six in Arizona in 2009. They rebounded.

Look at Manning’s 2005 Colts, who like the 2012 Broncos, won at least 11 straight games by 7+ points. They both lost the first playoff game in epic fashion. The 2006 Colts rebounded. Manning led an efficient offense and terrible defense in the regular season, but the defense actually showed up for the playoffs. That’s all he wants to see again this year. I do think Denver’s defense will be mediocre, but if Miller comes back and they get hot late, that’s all you need to win a championship.

Manning is 77-0 in games he finishes when his team allows 0-16 points. He doesn’t even need that strong of an effort. Just protect the lead in the playoffs for a change. All five of his playoff losses since 2007 have been comebacks by the opponent.

What Denver must avoid is letting last year’s Baltimore loss beat them twice. Do not get too overly aggressive in the four-minute offense with the lead. Do not get too crazy with the blitz on defense. Just play smart, which Rahim Moore failed to do. The talent is on this team, who can be their own worst enemy at times, to win a championship. They can win any game they play.

But if winning the Super Bowl is about getting hot late, then maybe a slow start is exactly what this team needs. I still ended up giving them 13 wins, but I strategically placed them into the No. 3 seed. If winning a Super Bowl means overcoming adversity, Denver has certainly set up a path to do that this season.

2. Kansas City Chiefs (8-8)

The Smiths say: “Is It Really So Strange?”

The Fact: The Chiefs have gone 414 games since a quarterback they drafted started and won a regular-season game. That will continue after the Alex Smith trade.

After the worst season in franchise history and holding the No. 1 pick, the Chiefs are actually in a good position to get to .500 right away. 8-8 is the record I have consistently paired them with this offseason. There’s potential for more in a weak division and conference. The roster has been turned over a lot with new additions at the key jobs of coach and quarterback. Andy Reid and Alex Smith are a good match, but time will tell if it’s great. Reid has been mostly mediocre since the Super Bowl loss and Smith only has 1.5 seasons of quality play on his track record. Still, it should make fans forget about the misery of last season.

3. San Diego Chargers (7-9)

The Smiths say: “Still Ill”

The Fact:  Philip Rivers is 2-19 in his last 21 game-winning drive opportunities. He’s turned the ball over 16 times in the clutch in those losses.

There’s not too much that Rivers needs to fix in general. His failures have been largely situational since 2010 (red zone and close games). It’s hard to fully blame the evaporating talent around him when he can look great for three quarters and turn into a pumpkin in the fourth. Just look at that Tampa Bay game last year as a great example. Only a handful of Rivers’ interceptions have been under pressure the last two years. This team has been in position to win many games since 2010, but he has turned the ball over late in historic fashion with unparalleled consistency. I am not sure Mike McCoy and Ken Whisenhunt are the right offensive minds to fix this, but I do think the Chargers will win about seven games again.

4. Oakland Raiders (2-14)

The Smiths say: “Heaven Knows I’m Miserable Now” (video)

The Fact: It has been 10 straight seasons in Oakland of not winning and not making the playoffs. At least the NFL record is 20 (1967-86 Saints).

How do you make an awful team (2012 Raiders who swept Kansas City to get to 4-12) even worse? You do whatever Oakland has done to chop this roster down into one of the least talented in recent memory. Two wins sounds like a good ceiling for this squad. At least it should bring in the No. 1 pick, which probably should be Teddy Bridgewater. Then again, many smart football minds had Matt Barkley going No. 1 a year ago at this time. But really Oakland, get a quarterback and then your roster moves won’t look so bad. The black hole of losing is going to continue until that guy is found.

PLAYOFFS

AFC

  • 1. Houston (13-3)
  • 2. Cincinnati (13-3)
  • 3. Denver (13-3)
  • 4. New England (12-4)
  • 5. Baltimore (10-6)
  • 6. Indianapolis (10-6)

Yep, the same six teams from last year, though the AFC has been shaping up this way the last few years. Talk about some dream matchups with Andrew Luck going to Denver and a rematch of Patriots/Ravens on Wild Card weekend. Like 2006, Manning and Brady will pull off the road wins on Divisional weekend and meet in Denver for the AFC Championship. Hard to top the classic that was that game, but this could do it as Denver gets the high-scoring win.

NFC

  • 1. Seattle (12-4)
  • 2. Green Bay (12-4)
  • 3. Atlanta (11-5)
  • 4. New York (10-6)
  • 5. San Francisco (12-4)
  • 6. New Orleans (11-5)

We’ll call this the Atlanta Revenge Tour. They beat the Saints in the Wild Card game. San Francisco gets swept by the Seahawks to lose the division, but spoils their season with a win in Seattle. The Falcons make Green Bay go one-and-done (2010 payback). Then in a rematch of last year’s NFC Championship, the Falcons hold on this time to down the 49ers.

SUPER BOWL XLVIII

Denver Broncos 24, Atlanta Falcons 13

Last year’s No. 1 seeds, they overcome adversity as No. 3 seeds this year to meet in the Super Bowl. I have compared the 2012 Broncos to the 1996 Broncos before. This will be a mixture of the 1997-98 teams. You have the Super Bowl between the veteran (Manning) and the young gun (Ryan). You have Denver and Atlanta (Super Bowl XXXIII rematch). Manning will hope the “retiring player winning a Super Bowl” thing does not happen to him for a third time (Jerome Bettis and Ray Lewis) with Gonzalez.

Oh and the game will be in New Jersey in February. It’s the same site the Falcons scored 0 offensive points in a loss to the Giants. Bad weather would hurt both of these pass-heavy teams, which should hopefully signal the end of having a Super Bowl in cold, outdoor stadiums.

In the end, Manning leads Denver to the sloppy win, ensuring that detractors can complain about his Super Bowl MVP after winning the two worst weather games in Super Bowl history. Always having that distinction as being the first quarterback to lead two franchises to a Super Bowl is the best thing you can have if you were not fortunate enough to be on a team who won 3-4 rings.

More than any team, that’s a lot of specific Denver predictions, but this is just my vision, my story of the 2013 season. There are countless possibilities to get from Thursday night to Super Bowl XLVIII.

Oh mother, I can feel the soil falling over my head.

Draftday.dk Interview: Evolution of the NFL

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

In early July I did an interview with Danish NFL site draftday.dk. Excerpts were used in their series on the evolution of the NFL, focusing on topics like the passing game and read-option craze. People like Greg Cosell and Jason Cole were also interviewed. You can view the read-option article here. 

As always I had a lot more to say, so here is the full interview:

1. Many sources point to the 2003 AFC Championship Game between the Patriots and the Colts as the turning point that led to the “passing league”. The Patriots’ manhandling of Peyton Manning’s receivers led to the league instructing its officials to more strictly enforce the “chuck” rule or the “Ty Law rule”. Do you agree? How much of an impact did that game have on the league?

The events of January 18, 2004 unquestionably had a major impact on the NFL. Not only in the AFC game, but the NFC Championship between the Eagles and Panthers also showcased a lot of contact in the secondary, especially by the winning team. Carolina’s Ricky Manning Jr. etched his name in playoff lore by intercepting three of Donovan McNabb’s passes in a 14-3 upset.

Earlier in the day in the AFC game between the Colts and Patriots, the referees clearly swallowed their whistles. The game had seven combined penalties and they were all for false starts, delay of game and offside/encroachment. That means not a single penalty was called on anything that happened after the ball was snapped.

The most egregious part was the end of the game. Despite how badly they had played, the Colts were down 21-14 at their own 20 with 2:01 remaining and two timeouts. Football fans and the NFL’s media partners live for these moments. A game-tying touchdown drive to force overtime or even just a march into the red zone – these teams already played a classic regular-season game that year that ended with a goal-line stand – would have made this an instant classic.

Instead, on two consecutive plays Peyton Manning targeted tight end Marcus Pollard, who was first jammed at the line and grabbed by the jersey by linebacker Willie McGinest. He was then passed off to linebacker Roman Phifer, who continued the contact more than five yards down the field, which is illegal.

The second play came on a decisive 4th-and-10, and it was the same approach with McGinest getting a clear hold around Pollard’s neck before passing him off to Phifer, who made even more contact this time, including a subtle arm pull just before the ball arrived incomplete. No flags came and that clinched the win for New England.

POL

After the game the league quietly admitted referee Walt Coleman, infamous for the “Tuck Rule” call two years earlier, and his crew missed penalties on both plays. It was too late for the Colts, but their general manager Bill Polian had clout in the league and the competition committee listened to his complaints. While the “Ty Law Rule” is really just the “Mel Blount Rule” from 1978, it was a message to referees to call more illegal contact, which is defined as non-incidental contact more than five yards down the field.

Looking at the penalty data on Pro-Football-Reference, there were 51 illegal contact penalties in 2003. That number sky-rocketed to 123 in 2004 after the re-emphasis on the rule. Since then things have calmed down with an average of 78.5 illegal contact penalties per year (less than 70 the last three years), but you could see the immediate impact it had.

Manning threw 49 touchdown passes and set the passer rating record in 2004. Since then both records have been broken along with Dan Marino’s 1984 record of 5,084 passing yards. The league-wide passing numbers continue to increase in volume and efficiency with the 2012 season boasting a league-wide record 85.6 passer rating.

In fact, the eight seasons with the highest league passer rating have all come since 2004.

Now an influx of great quarterback talent and other rule changes for illegal hits on defenseless players have also played a big part, but the shift to a dominant passing league was really set in motion by the events on Championship Sunday over nine years ago.

2. Some believe that speed will be the most important new feature on NFL offenses in 2013 – you will see more up tempo, no huddle offenses (like Chip Kelly’s Oregon offense or Patriots’ offense in 2012). What’s your take on that?

I’m not buying that maximizing your offense’s play count is the right way to go about things. Ideally, I would want an offense capable of going on multiple touchdown drives in a game that take 6-8 minutes off the clock each. That means efficient runs and completions in the passing game. Bleed the clock as you build the lead, forcing the other team to force things and play one-dimensional offense.

Someone like Peyton Manning has used the no-huddle for years, but he will still often use most of the 40-second play clock to diagnose his matchups. That cat-and-mouse game is still an important part of football. The Dolphins used a surprisingly high amount of no-huddle with rookie quarterback Ryan Tannehill last year, yet it’s not like that prevented them from being one of the bottom-quarter offenses in the league. You still need to know what you’re doing out there.

There’s a lot of mystery about how Chip Kelly’s offense will operate in the NFL. I get the feeling it’s either going to be a great success or a failure that will make Steve Spurrier look like a good NFL coach.

My fear for the Eagles is that they will find themselves going three-and-out too often, which will wear out the defense. It’s a defense that has not been very good in recent years, so you could see a team that falls behind by a few scores in the first half with regularity.

Running the fast pace may help them come back, but I just do not view Michael Vick as a quarterback capable of making this offense work. Maybe if Kelly can last long enough to find his next quarterback, we will get to see more of his college genius at work. Oregon’s offense was heavy on the run, though this is the most pass-happy era in NFL history. Teams passed on 57.7 percent of plays last year, which is the highest ratio ever.

The innovation I like is shortening the play calls down to one word if possible. I never understood why someone like coach/broadcaster Jon Gruden took such pride in memorizing these plays that are 10 or more words in length. That’s not being efficient and it makes it harder on the players to memorize a large volume of plays.

If you can get the play out quicker, you can run the no-huddle with a faster pace. But faster does not guarantee better results.

3. If yes, why is speed in the offensive system more important than ever?

See above.

4. Last year the read-option was the hit of the NFL. How do you expect this offense to evolve in 2013 around the NFL?

I expect we will see more teams experiment with it. It helps to have the really mobile quarterback, but quarterbacks like Andy Dalton, Andrew Luck, Aaron Rodgers, Jake Locker and Ryan Tannehill are mobile enough to run it too. The current crop of quarterbacks may be the fastest and most athletic in NFL history.

Like the Wildcat, I wouldn’t be surprised if some teams put in a package for the read-option just to make the opponent spend some time preparing for it. That may be with a different player under center, such as Denard Robinson in Jacksonville or Joe Webb in Minnesota. I would say Tim Tebow in New England, but let’s not go down that road. He is very predictable in keeping the ball on those plays as he’s already run this style of offense with the 2011 Broncos.

Developing more passing options out of it could make the play-action passing game even more deadly than it already is around the league. I don’t think teams ideally want to see their high-priced quarterback running by design too often. It’s still a game that is about throwing the ball.

5. Some say that the read-option will “fade” out of the NFL like the Wildcat – and some critics are not sure of the longevity of the offense. What’s your reaction to that prophecy?

I think it makes a bigger impact than the Wildcat, but I don’t see it ever being a major part of any successful NFL team.

One of the biggest myths of the 2012 season is just how often teams used it. ESPN’s Mike Sando did a great article on it showing that only 457 plays used the read-option last year. That’s 1.4 percent of all NFL plays.

No team used it more than Carolina’s 147 plays, but even that was only 14.9 percent of the Panthers’ total offense. Seattle with Russell Wilson gets lumped into the teams “heavily” using it, but the Seahawks’ play count was just 55. Beyond the quarterback keeping the ball, star running backs like Frank Gore (16 carries) and Marshawn Lynch (25 carries) rarely ran the ball on the option plays as well.

It’s never going to be as widespread as something like the shotgun, for example.

When news came out recently that Packers defensive coordinator Dom Capers didn’t prepare for it against Colin Kaepernick and the 49ers in the playoffs, he had the numbers to support that decision. Before that game, Kaepernick had 12 runs all season on the read-option. He used it seven times that night for 99 yards and a touchdown. It was just not something the 49ers did often, yet they hurt the Packers with it in that one game.

However, defenses adjusted quickly. In the ensuing playoff games against Atlanta and Baltimore, Kaepernick had three designed runs for 10 yards. Only one of those plays came on the zone-read option. It gained three yards.

This is an offensive strategy that will have to evolve to sustain as every team’s defensive staff has likely studied all of those 457 plays this offseason. It really wouldn’t take that long to break them down.

An athletic defense that stays disciplined has a great shot of limiting this style of offense, which frankly is getting too much credit as a 2012 innovation. It’s not that new. In doing various research this offseason, I have seen the 2010 Eagles use it with Michael Vick. Backup quarterback Troy Smith used it for the 2009 Ravens. Even Matt Cassel (Kansas City) has used it before.

The forgotten team that really stands out to me is the 2006 Atlanta Falcons. They opened the season using the zone-read option and rushed for 558 yards in a 2-0 start. They finished the season with 2,939 rushing yards. Vick rushed for 1,039 yards by himself, which is a quarterback record.

However, many forget about this team because it was still not that successful of an offense, ranking 21st in points per drive. The Falcons finished 7-9 and missed the playoffs. We never found out if they could expand upon this offense as Vick’s Atlanta career ended when his involvement in dog fighting was brought to light.

What really made the zone-read option so popular last season is that very young quarterbacks like Kaepernick, Wilson and most importantly Robert Griffin III were leading teams to the postseason by having historic success offensively.

Though as the numbers show, most of their success came without the zone-read option. For these players to continue their ascent in the NFL, it will rest on their progression at throwing the ball.

Should those teams have less success this season, regardless of how they actually perform on read-option plays, you can bet the game will quickly turn a cold shoulder to it as just another short-lived gimmick.