Tag: Patriots

2025 NFL Stat Oddity: Week 15

~ Scott ~ 1 Comment

In a way, I’m glad I don’t have to come up with a fancy title for this like I do the weekly predictions, because this has not been a weekend I’d like to remember. The shootings at Brown University and in Australia set a dark tone for Sunday, and it continued through the night with the reported murders of Rob Reiner and his wife.

I grew up watching Rob’s classic films that should stand the test of time, then I found out around middle school (or early high school) that he was an actor first on All in the Family, so I got to appreciate him as Meathead too. It’s an unthinkable tragedy and not the way you’d ever want to see someone’s story end.

In a sick way, I’m relieved to hear it may have been his son having a mental breakdown who committed the murders instead of some random nutter who did this over a difference of opinion on politics as Reiner was outspoken for years about liberal viewpoints and his disdain for Trump.

In many ways, his career was so admirable as someone who could take a joke, tell a joke, but still be serious when it came time for serious matters, and he had his convictions and beliefs and wasn’t afraid to express them. I think we’re losing a lot of that in today’s society where you have to be Team Blue or Team Red at all times and there’s no straying from the one right viewpoint on so many things.

We lost a genuine person, a creative who helped film some of the most iconic scenes and lines in film history at the peak of his powers:

“You can’t handle the truth!”

“I never had any friends later on like the ones I had when I was twelve. Jesus, does anyone?”

“I’ll have what she’s having.”

It’s all so inconceivable, much like this 2025 NFL season has been.

On Sunday, we saw the Patriots blow a 21-0 lead to Buffalo, the Chiefs’ playoff streak ended at 10 years in Week 15, we lost Patrick Mahomes and Micah Parsons to torn ACLs, we may have lost Davante Adams for the biggest NFC game this Thursday, and we watched Philip Rivers throw a game-ending interception right before a delayed start time for 60 Minutes in the year 2025 after he nearly pulled off one of the biggest upsets in NFL history.

We had nine games with a comeback opportunity, and six games with a double-digit comeback win ties the single-week NFL record.

Just one inconceivable thing after another, and I believe I do know what that word means.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Bills at Patriots: Game of the Day

While Patriots fans were busy claiming they have a 15-year Super Bowl window with Drake Maye, I recall his win at Buffalo earlier this season only saw him play well in the second half. There’s so much he has to prove in this league before we start putting him in those conversations, and on Sunday, he showed us he’s not ready to take the AFC East over from Buffalo.

It may still happen this year, but it didn’t on Sunday when the Patriots had their chance with a 21-0 lead and a 24-7 lead at halftime. They folded as Maye again only had one good half against Buffalo, and it wasn’t the half that you want it to be in winning time as he is now 0-7 at 4QC opportunities in the NFL.

Sure, the Patriots technically had a go-ahead touchdown drive in the fourth quarter in this game after TreVeyon Henderson hit his second long touchdown run of the game (65 yards) on the only play of the drive. Maye was getting excessive praise for his lead blocking on the score, but that play was largely Henderson’s speed after the line failed him and he got outside to score.

But the Bills answered back with their balanced attack after what was a slow start for Josh Allen in the passing game in the snowy, cold conditions. Keon Coleman’s lack of separation actually paid off on a big third-down DPI penalty that was a legit call, and that helped extend the Buffalo drive for an 11-yard touchdown run by Cook with 6:48 left. Buffalo led 35-31.

Maye had his opportunities to deliver his MVP moment with the first 4QC of his NFL career, something I heard analyst J.J. Watt elude to on the CBS broadcast. People know he doesn’t have one yet, and his only turnover in this game was an arm punt on an earlier 3rd-and-long, but in crunch time, he was just off on some throws to Hunter Henry and Henderson. A couple of ill-timed sacks happened too, and on 4th-and-5 at his own 22, Maye’s final pass was knocked down by Joey Bosa with 1:47 left. The Bills ran out the clock to complete the 21-point comeback.

There was no reverse psychology for me on this one. I liked Buffalo all week, because I think they’re the better team, the more battle-tested team, and they understand how to win big games like this one. The Patriots aren’t there yet, and while they hit some bigger runs than I expected with Henderson, I don’t think they can count on those again in a rematch while the Bills have a reliable running game with Cook behind that line. They also still have the better quarterback until proven otherwise.

Sunday is why I think the Bills should still get to the Super Bowl even if they don’t win the AFC East. They have this experience edge, and they almost have this 2006 Colts type of thing going on where they’re a horrible run defense (truly terrible), but you can kind of expect them to do well against the pass. You saw the 2006 Colts intercept Tom Brady 4 times on SNF in Foxboro. They held up against him in the AFC-CG too that year after getting through Scrambled Brains Trent Green, Old Steve McNair, then Rex Grossman in the Super Bowl.

Now look at the Bills in 2025. They made Aaron Rodgers look bloodied and ancient, and he probably contemplated retirement, and that could even end up being the 5-4 matchup on wild card weekend here. They held Patrick Mahomes under 50% completions for the first time ever, and unlike Houston doing it with drops last week, they did it legitimately.

The Bills just held Maye to 155 passing yards after he had 200+ in every game this season. Who’s going to run wild on them in the playoffs? Probably not Denver, Jacksonville, Chargers, or Houston. Baltimore with Derrick Henry? Sure, but they’d have to make the tournament first, and we’ve seen them fold enough times in the playoffs (especially to Buffalo) to not be too worried about that this January. We’ve watched the Bills destroy Denver in the playoffs last January.

Houston might be the No. 1 team Buffalo has to worry about since that defense has owned Allen the last two years, and C.J. Stroud’s actually had some playoff success.

But with the state of the AFC, this is still setting up very well for Buffalo even if the AFC East and No. 1 seed they were supposed to get this year are both unlikely to happen. But it’s also a huge win because it creates that mental block where the Patriots still are looking up to the Bills in the AFC East.

They had their chance to take over and blew it. We’ll see how they respond from here.

Meanwhile, the 2006 Colts were hardly the best Indy team in the Manning era. But it’s the one that had the right stuff against the right set of opponents in the postseason, and that could be what happens for the Bills in 2025. You’ll just have to spare me the Allen > Manning nonsense since Manning had an all-time great year in 2006, then became the first quarterback ever to beat the top three defenses in the same postseason, and he did get through his nemesis (Patriots) in the AFC-CG.

But this could still be Buffalo’s year. It almost has to be or it never will happen for this team as currently constructed.

Chargers at Chiefs: Life Is Pain, Highness

I’m not trying to write a full eulogy now for the 2025 Chiefs on a somber weekend even though their season is officially dead. They’re 6-8, Patrick Mahomes tore his ACL, and they’re eliminated from the playoffs after everyone they needed to lose won, and after they blew a 10-point lead to the Chargers at home.

You could point to many things that ended the Chiefs’ playoff streak at 10 years, and most of it are things they have no one but themselves to blame:

  • Rashee Rice getting a 6-game suspension and the front-loaded schedule he missed for it.
  • Travis Kelce and Xavier Worthy colliding on the first pass play of the season in Brazil, likely stunting the development and plan for Worthy in Year 2 while Rice was out.
  • Kelce’s butterfingers moments on dropped completions turned interceptions in clutch moments against the Eagles and Texans.
  • Letting Herbert run for a first down on 3rd-and-14 in Brazil.
  • The long list of mistakes in Jacksonville, the night that really started to turn things sour for the Chiefs this year.
  • How they never seemed to seize the moments before and after halftime in their losses.
  • Their typical no-show performance in Buffalo in Week 9 while the Bills treat it like their Super Bowl.
  • Mahomes and the offense not closing out more drives in Denver, their last stand for the AFC West reign in Week 11.
  • The absurd penalties in Dallas on Thanksgiving, and Rice’s drop on third-and-8.
  • All the drive-killing drops and Andy Reid’s 4th-down foolishness against Houston.

Even before you get to Sunday’s execution, this was a Dead Team Walking with 60% of the offensive line filled by backups, and they even lost a fourth tackle in this game, meaning it was double third-string tackles for Mahomes on a bad leg against another strong defensive front that sacked him 5 times.

If it wasn’t showing up in the pass protection, it showed up in the run blocking on Sunday as the Chiefs had 19 carries for 34 yards from the running backs. Mahomes had 15 yards, including a 12-yard scramble touchdown on the opening drive. But after building a 13-3 lead with 0:38 left before halftime, the next time Mahomes touched the ball, it was tied again.

From there, it was your typical Chiefs failure in 2025, another game with limited possessions as the defense couldn’t get off the field on third downs, the offense couldn’t sustain drives, and Rice took another big pop for a third-down drop. Oh, there was even a 5-play stretch where four different defenders were injured.

By the time you get to the fourth quarter, Mahomes threw probably his worst interception of the season on 3rd-and-12 in the red zone to a tightly covered Kareem Hunt, a play that shouldn’t even exist in the playbook for this offense. The play all the more inexplicable when Mahomes made his two best plays of the game right before it to convert twice in a row on third down to Tyquan Thornton with flags making him redo it.

Then on the fateful final drive of the season, of course it started with a holding penalty on the punt return that backed the ball up to the KC 8 with 5:20 left. Those special teams penalties have been automatic all year.

With the ball at the LAC 46 at the two-minute warning, you still thought Mahomes would at least set up the game-tying field goal for overtime, or even get the go-ahead touchdown as he’s done so many times before against the Chargers and other teams.

But that’s when the torn ACL happened on a throwaway outside of the pocket. Non-contact injury too. Gardner Minshew had to enter the game, made a few completions, but in field goal range, the drive again went to shit with a delay of game followed by a forced throw to Kelce that was picked to end the game. To end the season.

To end an era as that was probably the last meaningful target of Kelce’s career, and he was great on the drive too with four catches. But it’s all over after the Chiefs, the masters of situational football for year, threw two picks in game-tying field goal range in the fourth quarter. A befitting ending to a terribly disappointing season.

A season where the Chiefs somehow came up short in every single one-score game except for the Colts’ comeback, and then seemingly every other close game that didn’t even involve them went the right way for teams like the Broncos, Patriots, Bills, Jaguars, Texans, Chargers, etc. to create this early elimination.

With a mid-December ACL injury, now you just wonder if Mahomes’ 2026 is compromised in any way, even if it’s just September. That’s walking a thin line on the road to 100% recovery, and while some have done it in less time (Carson Palmer and Philip Rivers had their ACLs in the playoffs in January and were back by Week 1), Mahomes uses his legs more than they ever did.

Barring a miraculous offseason, the Chiefs may enter 2026 no better than third in the AFC West odds, let alone the whole AFC. If that doesn’t spark some major changes by the organization, then I don’t know what will.

They’ve had their runs. They did things a certain way in 2018-21, then that got stale and they adjusted by trading Tyreek Hill and pulling off a strong draft class. That deteriorated too, but they almost got a three-peat out of it, so they ran it back for 2025 with the hope of better health luck, more blocking for Mahomes, more speed at receiver, and more takeaways on defense.

But that offensive line continuity lasted about five games. There appears to never have been a solid plan for how to create an offense centered around Rice and Worthy, and Reid never really knew what to do with new players like Thornton and Brashard Smith this year. The takeaways dried up even worse as the pressure packages fell off for Spags, who didn’t even have McDuffie available this week and who knows who else is done for the year with injuries piling up now. Even kicker Harrison Butker was so much worse this year you’d think Kamala had taken office in January.

Again, it’s so many different things, and it changed game to game, and yet the quarterback is the one who will somehow take the biggest shots for this failure of a season.

I was always hesitant early in the year to boast that Mahomes had a better Year 9 than Tom Brady, which was his 2008 ACL season. But he did by default, and at the end of the day, his Year 9 also became a lost ACL season.

For Brady, Year 10 (2009) was his choking dog year where he blew every close game after the Buffalo comeback in Week 1, then turned the ball over three times in the first quarter of the wild card loss to the Ravens, a 33-14 blowout where Joe Flacco had 4 completions.

I hope Mahomes can beat that season in 2026 too, but the Chiefs are going to have to really reinvent themselves here, because asking Mahomes to be Superman and have these games where he led the team in rushing and had to make more plays than ever out of structure did a number on him in the end.

They better hope this is his only season-ending injury, something most notable quarterbacks only had to deal with once in their long careers.

If 2025 doesn’t go down as by far the most frustrating, disappointing season of Mahomes’ career, then the Chiefs will have really done him wrong down the road.

Colts at Seahawks: Hello, My Name is Philip Rivers Jr. You Killed My Father. Prepare to Die.

A lot is wrong in the world right now, but the image of Philip Rivers laboring from the pocket in a one-score game in the fourth quarter in the late Sunday afternoon window is a real throwback to the 2010s.

So is watching him throw a game-ending interception like clockwork, but you have to give the guy a lot of credit for even trying. He went from celebrating his 44th birthday and five years of retirement on Tuesday to suiting up as a 2-touchdown road underdog against an elite defense five days later.

The fact his only turnover came in the last seconds when he was forced to throw something deep out of desperation after his defense wasted his go-ahead field goal in the final 50 seconds is a testament to his knowledge of where to go with the ball and quickly. Rivers was only sacked once in the game too.

Sure, there were some embarrassing snaps like when he fell down and had to get up before going down again. He looked about as unathletic as an NFL quarterback ever has on that play. And it’s not like he was pushing the ball down the field with luck. The Colts’ two longest pass plays gained 17 and 16 yards.

But if you compare how someone like Minnesota rookie Max Brosmer played against this Seattle defense, then Rivers looked great by comparison. Still, it’s another loss after the Seahawks made their sixth field goal of the game after they nearly gave this one away, trailing 13-3 early.

Rivers is one of the only true football psychopaths who would even try playing after being this far gone from the game. I imagine he’ll try to finish the season, and he’ll have better starts than this.

But it does say a lot about where young quarterbacks are in this league if he’s truly their best option right now. Still, this game could have been an absolute disaster and instead it was nearly an all-time upset.

Packers at Broncos: These Broncos Go to 11

We already had one home underdog on a 10-game winning streak lose on Sunday (Patriots), so it wasn’t about to be two with Denver hosting Green Bay. I’m proud to say I got both games right this week, and I liked Denver because of the home-field advantage and the way the Packers don’t usually create takeaways despite the presence of Micah Parsons and his pressure.

Well, unfortunately Parsons tore his ACL in this one, so there probably goes my Super Bowl pick in the NFC with Green Bay. They already lost Tucker Kraft to a torn ACL, so now you lose your best defender that was supposed to put you over the top, and wideout Christian Watson also got hurt (again) in this one, so that’s more bad news.

The Packers played well early but the Denver defense got some picks from Jordan Love, who we know can be reckless with the ball. So can Bo Nix, but he played maybe his best NFL game yet on Sunday with 4 touchdowns, which is again why I think he has that ability to be the Joe Flacco or Eli Manning of his generation and go on a Super Bowl run with some improbable devil luck going his way. He’s just got that flat liner approach to his game where the moment doesn’t seem to get too big for him against all expectations.

Love had the ball four times in the fourth quarter of a one-possession game, but the best he could do was a field goal early. He couldn’t get the offense moving on any of the three drives down 34-26.

It’s a big win for Denver (12-2), the 11th in a row, as it looks to get the No. 1 seed this year.

Lions at Rams: Sean McVay Is Cooking

The Rams got off to a bit of a slow start in this one with Aidan Hutchinson getting a pick, and Detroit led 24-14 at one point. But the Rams have really cranked up their rushing attack since the bye, and they had 159 more yards in this one to go along with 368 passing yards by Matthew Stafford, who also threw two touchdowns.

Puka Nacua dominated with 181 receiving yards on a day where Davante Adams left with a hamstring injury that could be troubling going forward. But the Detroit defense still had few answers for such a balanced, explosive, and efficient attack from the Rams who piled up 41 points and controlled the second half.

Jared Goff played well early, but three straight three-and-out drives to start the second half is where the game got away from the Lions, who were always in catch-up mode after that. They didn’t register a true 4QC attempt until there were 13 seconds left in a 41-34 game, only enough time for a lateral attempt 80 yards away from the end zone, which obviously didn’t come close to working.

The Lions (8-6) are in a tough spot for the playoffs now while the Rams (11-3) have that huge game in Seattle this Thursday.

Ravens at Bengals: (Joe Burrow’s) Misery

Joe Burrow raised some alarms with his words on his 29th birthday this week that he might already be thinking about an early retirement a la Andrew Luck. Others saw it as a cryptic message to management to shape up or ship him out a la Carson Palmer in 2011.

On Sunday, Burrow by his own words said he wouldn’t have helped any team win a game with his play. He suffered the first shutout (24-0) of his NFL career as the Bengals came up empty on nine drives as Burrow threw two picks under pressure, including a pick-six in the fourth quarter to make it 24-0.

It was one of the roughest Burrow games ever, and you could see it early when he took a sack that knocked them out of field goal range on a cold day. He didn’t have Tee Higgins (concussion), but he didn’t have him on Thanksgiving either and did much better than this.

The Ravens didn’t need to do a ton offensively with the way this one played out. Let the Bengals hold the ball for almost 40 minutes before they self-destructed. In fact, the Bengals had the highest time of possession (39:19) for a team that was shutout in NFL history. The previous record belongs to the 2014 Raiders (Derek Carr’s rookie year) with 36:56 TOP in a 52-0 loss at the Rams.

Not the kind of records you want to be setting.

Panthers at Saints: Maybe Tyler Shough Should Have Started Week 1…

Early this season, the Saints were competitive with Spencer Rattler at quarterback but they weren’t winning. Maybe they should have started Tyler Shough earlier? He’s done a good job, and on Sunday against Carolina, he led the first fourth-quarter comeback and second game-winning drive of his career in a 20-17 win.

But coach Kellen Moore and Shough did get a bit lucky on the game-winning drive here. Out of timeouts, I really don’t think a QB draw with 12 seconds left was a good idea. Who do you think you are, the 2021 Cowboys in the playoffs against the 49ers? Oh wait, Moore was the OC for that team too. But I think right there you either risk the clock running out before the spike, or you set up a 62-yard field goal that might be too long.

Instead, Moore and Shough got lucky when a late hit was called on the slide, and the kicker only had to make from 47 yards, which he did to win the game. That’s the first 4QC for the Saints this year.

If Shough can keep ascending, they might even be the new favorites in the NFC South, a wasteland division, in 2026.

Vikings at Cowboys: Season Over After Facing NINE

Notice they really didn’t show Jerry Jones after the opening interception when a tipped ball got J.J. McCarthy. That’s because he did very well the rest of the night, shredding that defense when he targeted everyone not named Justin Jefferson, who dropped a touchdown and finished with 22 yards on 2-of-8 catches. Just a weird night, but McCarthy had 3 total touchdowns and threw for a career-high 250 yards with no sacks taken.

The Vikings can cook with this type of quarterback, but he won’t see many defenses as bad as Dallas. On the other side, the Cowboys had yet another game where they settled for way too many field goals, Brandon Aubrey missed two of them for a bad night for his high standards, and George Pickens (33 yards) was again very quiet.

Just like that, Dallas is 6-7-1 and needs a miracle to make the playoffs that isn’t going to happen now. They could have at least gave us one more week of keeping it interesting, because I do think it’s possible for Washington to beat the Eagles once. And we know the Bills can beat that team in Buffalo.

Alas, it’s all but over for the Cowboys, who punted on the season before it even started with the Micah Parsons trade and gave us a little fool’s gold in November before the harsh reality of another long offseason with no deep playoff run for America’s Team.

Giving up 34 points to a quarterback like McCarthy, who became a meme for the face of sucking ass this year, is a fitting way to end things for the 2025 Cowboys, a team that deserves to finish 8-8-1.

Cardinals at Texans: It’s the Arizona Blowout Week

This week was the blowout loss for Arizona (40-20), and Jacoby Brissett threw for 249 yards and 3 touchdowns anyway, coming up 1 yard short of his 8th game this year with 250 and multiple scoring tosses.

But the offense had minus-7 yards by the time it was 17-0 in the first quarter as Houston jumped all over them early with a big touchdown pass to Nico Collins, then the Cardinals botched some special teams play to dig the hole early.

Houston (9-5) might just run the table playing like this in this AFC.

Raiders at Broncos: Kenny Pickett Is Not the Answer

JFC, I thought Kenny “OneDrive” Pickett could at least give me one touchdown drive. But the 2025 Raiders are the ultimate get-right game as they lost 31-0, almost as badly as when they lost 31-0 to the Chiefs, which was obviously an outlier for that team this year.

But Pickett, starting for the first time this year for an injured Geno Smith, was 15-of-25 for 64 yards with 4 sacks for 35 yards. So, he really didn’t contribute anything to the offense, which was held scoreless on eight drives (no first downs on 5 of them).

The Eagles made it look pretty easy. Dallas Goedert caught 2 short touchdowns and it should have been 3.

Jets at Jaguars: Have a Day, Trevor Lawrence

I never bought into the Aaron Glenn hiring since he had even worse of a defensive coordinator than Robert Saleh when he took the job for the Jets. At least Saleh could point to 2019 with the 49ers. Glenn’s resume is basically “I had Dan Campbell’s offense lighting it up and I wasn’t the worst defense in the league with a ton of guys on injured reserve last year.”

Because the Jets are terrible on defense under Glenn, and it’s hard to say they were any better before Sauce Gardner and Quinnen Williams were traded than they are without them.

But Sunday was certainly a low point in a 48-20 loss to the Jaguars where they let Trevor Lawrence become the first quarterback ever to throw for 300 yards, rush for 50, and throw 5 touchdowns with 1 rushing score too.

Browns at Bears: Caleb Williams Is Fearless

Maybe I should have stuck to my narrative that the 2025 Browns are overrated on defense, because the Bears had few problems dropping 31 points on them in a blowout win. The defense came up with plenty of splash plays against rookie Shedeur Sanders (with an assist from Jerry Jeudy on a pick in the end zone), but Caleb Williams made some great throws and had one of his better games too this year.

Titans at 49ers: Third-and-Purdy

There used to be a ‘Third-and-Jimmy’ thing when Jimmy Garoppolo was the 49ers’ quarterback. He was unusually good at converting third downs in obvious passing situations, and maybe we should just give Kyle Shanahan some credit for those play calls and his scheme. Because apparently Brock Purdy has done some similar things, or at least he was cooking on third down on Sunday against maybe the worst team in the NFL in the Titans.

The 49ers were 9/15 on third down and the game had more points (37-24) than expected, though the spread (49ers -12.5) was on point. It seems like the Titans do better at scoring against NFC West teams than anyone else this year.

Commanders at Giants: No Late Darts

The Commanders (4-10) finally won their first game since Week 5, but they didn’t make it easy, losing two fumbles in the final 5:50 to give the Giants (3-11) a shot at a 15-point comeback late.

Chalk it up as another good data point for kicking the extra point first, because by making it a 29-21 game with 3:43 left, the Giants got a lucky break with a McNichols fumble, and Jaxson Dart was at midfield with 2:38 left in an 8-point game. There’s your chance to tie it. Unfortunately, he came up empty on 4th-and-8 at the Washington 38 to end the rally attempt.

Almost just as bad, Dart reportedly made his fifth trip to the blue tent for a concussion check this season before returning to finish the game. These Giants better invest in one hell of a good backup quarterback.

Next week: Week 16 could peak right away with Rams-Seahawks on Thursday night. Can Sam Darnold really keep losing to this team? Can Stafford lock up MVP with a big night in a huge game? Then we get two Saturday island games but at least the night one (Packers vs. Bears) could be good for the NFC North.

Sunday is probably the worst 1:00 PM slate of the year just because of the reality of these teams in Week 16. I guess Chargers-Cowboys is the standout. At 4:00, the Jags are in Denver and the Steelers are in Detroit. The SNF Patriots-Ravens game was flexed. Then I suppose we’ll see Rivers get another shot against the 49ers on Monday night to end it and maybe all but end the Colts’ playoff odds this year.

NFL 2025 Week 15 Predictions: The Return of Philip Rivers Edition

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

This 2025 NFL season has been crazy enough as is, but to bring back a 44-year-old Philip Rivers after five years away from the game? He’s literally a semifinalist for the 2026 HOF class at the moment. Then to call him up on a short week against an elite defense like Seattle? Good luck with that, but I’m not sure I’ve ever had more of a morbid curiosity in seeing how a game plays out than that one.

But beyond Rivers’ return, it is a fascinating week when you have multiple home underdogs who are on 10-game winning streaks in the Patriots and Broncos. Not only that, but they’re playing teams in the Bills and Packers who have some really bad losses as big favorites against the spread this season. Not to mention the Patriots already beat Buffalo in Buffalo.

Throw in the 6-7 Chiefs still being a 5.5-point favorite despite losing two in a row and losing to the 9-4 Chargers in Week 1, and I’m not sure if it’s the oddsmakers accurately assessing these new contenders in 2025, or if people are just betting with their hearts from last year and not adjusting to what’s going on this year.

Who’s right? Who’s actually a good team in 2025? It’s hard to say because it really does feel like a season where anyone can beat anybody, and these teams have four weeks to figure things out before the playoffs.

This Week’s Articles

2025 NFL Award Races: Final Quarter Look at Stafford vs. Maye for MVP, Coach of the Year, and the Myles Garrett vs. Micah Parsons Debate
2025 NFL Quarterback Rankings Week 15: The Texans May Have Ended the Postseason Streak for Patrick Mahomes After Chiefs Drop the Ball
https://www.365scores.com/news/scotts-seven-nfl-picks-week-15-2025

In looking at the NFL awards going into the final quarter, I see a vision for how the MVP can be decided in Week 16, Myles Garrett vs. Micah Parsons for DPOY, and 6 coaches who can have a case for Coach of the Year. But if Philip Rivers plays well, he’s a lock for Comeback Player of the Year, something I didn’t even have time to consider when I wrote that Monday night.

As for the QB rankings, Patrick Mahomes undoubtedly was let down by drops more on Sunday night than any other game in his career.

For Week 15 picks, I have parlays for Bills-Patriots, Chargers-Chiefs, Dolphins-Steelers, and yes, a Philip Rivers-themed SGP.

NFL Week 15 Predictions

I had the Falcons covering on TNF, but what a crazy 14-point comeback that was. Tampa really blew multiple opportunities for game-ending fumble recoveries, and Baker Mayfield missed that game-sealing throw on 2nd-and-14. Just another brutal loss for the Bucs (7-7), another common division winner having a down year.

NYJ-JAX: Don’t love the Jags with such a huge spread but Brady Cook isn’t any good, right?

ARI-HOU: There’s a decent chance Jacoby Brissett puts up a better stat line against Houston than Allen and Mahomes did. But I don’t think Houston scores enough to cover the spread, but the Texans will win.

BUF-NE: I’m taking the Bills to remind NE who’s run this division since 2020. A lot of bad turnovers for the Bills in the first matchup but the defense played fine for a half. Stefon Diggs carried the passing game for NE. I think Buffalo clamps down and gets the split even if the Patriots are still winning the AFC East this year.

LAC-KC: I can’t trust the Chiefs to cover right now, especially not 5.5. Both QBs don’t have their starting OTs, but the Chiefs better find a way to get a pass rush going against the Chargers’ joke of a line. This is basically their last stand for this season mattering.

LV-PHI: Give me Kenny Pickett to cover the spread in a low-scoring game. But it sure would be hilarious if he led a GWD in Philly.

BAL-CIN: I prefer the over more than the spread here. But I think the Ravens protect the ball far better than on Thanksgiving and put up their share of points on the Bengals, who just can’t stop anyone again.

WAS-NYG: Division games are always weird but I think Jaxson Dart can win by 3 against a poor defense that J.J. McCarthy beat 31-0.

CLE-CHI: Just feels like a sloppy game where Caleb Williams might need to lead a GWD to get the win by 1-7.

TEN-SF: Don’t believe the Titans after last week’s win. I think the 49ers win by 14+

DET-LAR: Rams will play well at home while the Lions won’t be able to keep up with that offense. Not enough DBs to handle Puka and Davante.

CAR-NO: Saints could certainly pull off another upset, but I think Carolina makes the most of another Tampa loss and gets the win here. close game though.

GB-DEN: Going to trust the Broncos at home to get it done. Big shock that these defenses have 22 turnovers between them, but I think the Broncos pull it out in the 4Q.

IND-SEA: As long as Darnold doesn’t throw a pick parade, I think Seattle wins big. Rivers should play the whole game though. They have no one else. That’s why they’re desperate enough to start grandpa.

MIN-DAL: I like a Jefferson TD but Cowboys win by 7.

MIA-PIT: No T.J. Watt but still shouldn’t be an issue. Steelers have won 22 straight at home on MNF and it’s going to be under 20 degrees. Dolphins will turtle up on the road again.

2025 NFL Stat Oddity: Week 9

~ Scott ~ 1 Comment

We’re into November now with this NFL season, and it didn’t take long for nutty stuff to happen. After last week’s historic blowout slate, Week 9 saw the teams with the best records (Packers and Colts) both lose, including the biggest upset of the season with the Panthers (+13.5) in Green Bay.

We also saw insane finishes in the NFC North, the longest field goal ever, some Atlanta DOOM, and a Chiefs-Bills game that felt different than the nine that came before it.

In all, there were seven games with a comeback opportunity with MNF pending. That’s certainly up from the 9 combined in the previous two weeks, but it’s still a below-average number as the prime-time games were routs. I think Cowboys vs. Cardinals will deliver the points though.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Chiefs at Bills: Game of the Week

One thing I never liked to buy into was that the Chiefs hide stuff in the regular season against Buffalo so they can do it in the playoffs to beat them. But I was sold last year after the night-and-day differences between their November loss and the AFC Championship Game that this is the case.

On Sunday, it sure looked like the case again as the Chiefs didn’t seem to have a real game plan for offense (or defense). Patrick Mahomes only had 10 pass attempts almost before halftime, though they still weren’t really testing that run defense without Ed Oliver with Kareem Hunt and company. He wasn’t even throwing to Kelce as it was just the Rashee Rice Show.

Then Mahomes hits a deep ball to Hollywood Brown where I’m not sure how he doesn’t score, and the Chiefs can’t punch it in from the 1-yard line before halftime. That sequence hurt. Then the rest of the game devolved into Mahomes trying to survive the pass rush and throwing miracles down the field, hitting some like the 4th-and-17 conversion to Rice to start the fourth quarter.

By the way, the Chiefs didn’t have either starting tackle for the 4th-and-17, and that’s the first conversion on 4th-and-17 by a team trailing by one or two scores with more than half of the fourth quarter left since 1978. That made it a game again at 28-21.

But even when the offense got the ball back, two straight plays went nowhere to rookie back Brashard Smith, including a screen that went off a lineman’s head. On 3rd-and-11 with Joey Bosa bearing down on Mahomes, he just threw one up for Xavier Worthy that was picked, the equivalent of a 44-yard punt with 4:18 left.

The Bills gained two first downs, but Matt Prater’s 52-yard field goal hit the upright, leaving Mahomes 0:22 for a miracle. They got some shots from the Bufalo 40 at the Hail Mary, but Mahomes couldn’t set his feet on the last throw and it came up harmlessly short to end the game, dropping the Chiefs to 5-4 and 0-4 in close games this season.

You can apply the usual caveat that Buffalo has won in the regular season against the Chiefs five times in a row now while still going 0-4 in the playoffs against them. They have to show they can do it in January as you won’t see another game where Mahomes completes under 50% of his passes, a first in his career after 141 games of 50% or higher, an NFL record to start a career.

But I have a lot of problems with just ignoring this for Buffalo and Kansas City. There may not be a playoff rematch as I alluded to this week. These teams may not win their divisions, so it could be hard to meet up again if they’re both wild cards.

Beyond that, this felt different from the previous 9 meetings of Allen vs. Mahomes.

The Bills bullied the Chiefs on both sides of the ball. Cook rushed for 114 yards to end Kansas City’s streak of not allowing a 100-yard rusher. Allen got the sneak corrected to score twice against the Chiefs. He used his tight ends as well as ever with wide-open plays all day (101 yards for Kincaid).

On defense, the Bills hit Mahomes 15 times (possibly a career high depending on the source of hits), sacked him 3 times, and made him uncomfortable all game long. Those new additions really paid off as Joey Bosa was a nightmare for the backup tackles, and rookie corner Maxwell Hairston showed he has the speed to stay up with Worthy no problem. That stuff matters.

Even with the numbers the Chiefs have been posting on offense the last month, I felt like they weren’t at all sorted out on how they’re going to use these receivers together. Worthy’s production has gone down since Rice returned, they don’t even use Tyquan Thornton anymore after he played so well as a deep threat, and Hollywood Brown is seemingly always good for a lack of concentration drop (like to start this game) or bad YAC play where he doesn’t score (like before halftime).

I don’t think they have it figured out yet, and I don’t think “saving it for the playoffs” is something you can afford to do when you’re 5-3 and now 5-4. Winning the division is getting very close to having to run the table, and this team just may not be that good to do so this year. No team in the NFL might be able to rip off 8 in a row in 2025 if you just look around the league.

So, I don’t think it’s a loss you brush off lightly and hope for the rematch to go better, because at this point, there may never be a rematch. The Chiefs got some work to do on this bye week as the Broncos and Colts are up next.

Colts at Steelers: It’s the Great Pumpkin, Daniel Jones

I knew this was coming, which is why I picked the Steelers to win. But six turnovers with 5 by Indiana Jones? I didn’t see that coming. Maybe half that amount, but the Steelers went wild with forcing takeaways as they made the Colts fight for everything, including the long opening drive touchdown that made it look like it might be a long day again.

But T.J. Watt forced a strip-sack fumble, they held Jonathan Taylor to 45 yards, they got good pressure that led to a tipped ball and interception, and they got another strip-sack later in the game as well as a pick. Just great stuff from the defense all day while the offense was very conservative with quick throws as they just took advantage of the field position from the turnovers.

When the Colts lost to the Rams, I felt very encouraged by the team as it felt like Adonai Mitchell cost them two touchdowns. But after Sunday, I feel very discouraged about the Colts and Jones going forward if they’re going to play like this in Pittsburgh against a defense that’s been down bad for most of the year. I could see the Chiefs and Bills roughing this team up too in January (or Week 12 in Indy’s case).

Sunday doesn’t erase what the Colts did for 8 weeks, but it’s still a sobering loss and a huge win for the Steelers, who will try to rattle Justin Herbert without Joe Alt next.

Bears at Bengals: Fire the Whole Staff into the Sun

It cracks me up that the Bengals thought firing Lou Anarumo and drafting Shemar Stewart was going to fix this defense. They’re worse than ever, and Sunday may have been their masterpiece.

We talked about improbable comebacks in the last 5:00, and the Bengals had one here ready to go. Joe Flacco even threw an interception with 2:42 left, trailing 41-27, and still found a way to take a 42-41 lead with 0:54 left. Incredible.

The Bengals used their 3 timeouts to force a quick 3-and-out by the Bears. With 2:15 left and solid field position, Flacco quickly led a 55-yard touchdown drive in 32 seconds. The Bengals went for 2 and got it. They recovered an onside kick, which is so hard to do, and 49 seconds later it was another touchdown pass from Flacco, who threw for 470 yards and 4 touchdowns.

But since the Bengals went for 2 earlier, they led 42-41 now, which triggers four-down aggressive football from the Bears. That’s why I’m not a big fan of the going for 2 down 14 strategy. You are more likely to end up in these situations where the other team is down 1 and can pursue the win with no limitations on downs. Or you could end up down 8 after failing on the early 2PC, and now you need a 2PC just to tie or you’ll probably lose. It’s even less enticing in this era where setting up a field goal is so much easier with new kickoff rules and kicker range.

But the Bears were taking their sweet old time until Caleb Williams found Colston Loveland over the middle, and after some horrific tackling, he broke free for a 58-yard touchdown to stun the Bengals with a 47-42 lead. The kind of play that should get someone fired in Cincinnati.

The Bengals got a shot at a Hail Mary, but Flacco’s pass came up woefully short of the end zone to end it, giving him another interception. But he played well as did the offense. The defense is just a bunch of bullshit and Zac Taylor and his staff have no answers for anything.

Broncos at Texans: Another Comeback for Denver

The better team won in the end as the Texans were held to 2.8 yards per carry and 3/17 on third down. They also gave up touchdown passes of 27 and 30 yards on an otherwise poor day throwing from Bo Nix.

 But it would have been nice if C.J. Stroud didn’t leave the game after a concussion on a late slide in the second quarter, leading to Davis “Long Neck” Mills throwing 30 passes.

Houston tried to power through on 5 field goals, but that 15-7 lead in the fourth quarter didn’t hold up to these Broncos, who pulled off another comeback. Both teams had multiple chances with the ball in a 15-15 game, but Mills had a quick three-and-out late  that took a total of 24 seconds off the clock, including the punt. It reminded me of how Houston beat Buffalo last year when Josh Allen had 3 quick incompletions and the punt set up Houston in easy position to win the game.

This time, Nix used his legs for a huge 25-yard scramble that set up Wil Lutz for a 34-yard walk-off field goal to get the 18-15 win.  You might as well say there’s a new AFC South champ this year, and with the way Denver keeps winning games like this, we might see a new AFC West champ for the first time since 2015 too.

Vikings at Lions: McCarthy Not Losing in Michigan

I recall how poorly 7-of-8 quarters went for J.J. McCarthy earlier this year, and I’ve seen some of the shine coming off this Brian Flores defense. So, I wasn’t expecting much from the Vikings in Detroit, but McCarthy pulled it out in a 27-24 upset, one of the biggest upsets of the year.

I called it that he’d throw a touchdown to Justin Jefferson, his first since Week 1, which was also from McCarthy. But then the pseudo-rookie threw another to T.J. Hockenson, he rushed for another later, and he put the game away with a great 3rd-down conversion pass in a 27-24 game.

McCarthy had plenty of help from the D/ST in this one, but he no doubt played well too. A huge day for him and the Vikings.

Panthers at Packers: Underdog Strategy Works Out

I picked the Packers to reach the Super Bowl, and I don’t know whether to like it or hate the pick with each passing week. They can look so good in beating the Lions and Steelers, then so bad in losing to the Browns and Panthers with Jordan Love throwing an inexplicable incompletion in both losses.

In this one, Carolina played the big underdog strategy well with a strong running game from Rico Dowdle, limited mistakes from Bryce Young, and the defense was timely on when it stopped the Packers from finding the end zone.

Each team only had 7 possessions, and it’s almost impossible to win a game like that if you’re Green Bay and you waste four of them with a fumble, missed field goal, pick, and a turnover on downs that should have been a 2nd pick. Let’s talk about that play.

First, why? Why is Green Bay even going for a 4th-and-8 at the Carolina 13 in a 13-6 game with 11:00 left? At best you time the game with plenty of time left. Second best,  you convert for the first down and the drive continues, meaning it could still end in a field goal or no points. But the worst-case scenario is you don’t get it, and really that should have been picked as the touchback would have given the Panthers an extra 7 yards.

But I just don’t get the decision to go for it. I know they missed a 43-yard field goal in the third quarter, but do you expect a pro like Brandon McManus to miss a 31-yard field goal too? Just a horrible call. It’s almost like they saw the drive as 4-down territory, so even when Wilson was stuffed for a 5-yard loss on 3rd-and-3, they weren’t deterring from the plan and still went for it on 4th-and-8. Really dumb call.

The Packers were able to get the game-tying touchdown with Josh Jacobs on the next drive to tie the game at 13 with 2:32 left. But Bryce Young completed a couple of passes for 19 yards, Dowdle broke a 19-yard run, and the Panthers walked off the Packers with a 49-yard field goal in a 16-13 stunner.

The game was more offensive than the score suggests because of the drive count, but this is still a miserable loss for the Packers and right before their huge game with the Eagles. Maybe they overlooked Carolina after hearing all week how great they are after beating the Steelers. But you better show up every week in this league, a lost art.

Falcons at Patriots: Leaving Younghoe for This?

We haven’t seen Michael Penix Jr. in a close finish in so many weeks that I forgot what my DOOM nickname for him stood for. It’s Destiny of Ongoing Misfortune, and it’s on point after he already lost his third game in 12 career games after a kicker missed a clutch kick.

On this Sunday, the Falcons were the team down to New England, but instead of the Patriots taking a 24-7 lead into halftime if they got a field goal, Drake Maye took yet another sack, lost the ball, and that set up the Falcons for a 6-yard touchdown drive to make it 21-14 at the half. Huge swing there.

Atlanta’s defense continued to keep the team in the game in the second half as Maye took 6 sacks and threw a bad pick.

Penix got the ball back in a 24-17 game in the fourth quarter and threw another touchdown to Drake London with 4:40 left. It’s funny cause the touchdown came on 4th-and-goal at the 8. I was thinking you should probably kick the field goal, which you need eventually, as 4th-and-8 isn’t in your favor and you have enough time to get the ball back and drive for the go-ahead touchdown. They went for it and it worked out though in this new NFL.

But then the new kicker, John Parker Romo, was wide right on the extra point, keeping it a 24-23 New England lead. They got rid of Younghoe Koo for this? Unacceptable. But after the Patriots went 3-and-out, Penix delivered a 25-yard pass to London up to midfield. That was when things went haywire, as the second-down play allegedly was a matter of the Patriots simulating the snap for the Falcons, which is supposedly a penalty that wasn’t called, and it led to an intentional ground penalty by Penix that killed the drive and they punted in no man’s land on 4th-and-20 at their own 42.

You can see a Patriots player clapping in the deep middle of the field, which Penix points to after the play is over. I’m not sure if that’s really illegal, but the snap was early, and Penix needs to do a better job of gunning that at least by the feet of Bijan Robinson to avoid any grounding penalty.

Needing only one first down to end the game, Maye recovered and delivered a 17-yard pass on 3rd-and-5 to Hunter Henry to put the Falcons away. But what a bad time for the Falcons to miss an extra point and suffer a grounding penalty. Maye did some things very well early but was largely ineffective for the rest of the game.

But I guess getting bailed out by Atlanta mistakes is just something New England quarterbacks are used to doing.

Saints at Rams: No Help for Tyler Shough

If you’re a Saints fan, I think you’re encouraged by Tyler Shough’s first NFL start and discouraged by the team around him. The defense gave up 5 touchdowns on the first seven drives, and the running game for Shough produced one 29-yard run by Taysom Hill and a fumble lost by Alvin Kamara. No help.

The moment didn’t seem too big for Shough with only one turnover and one sack taken against a great pass rush. But Matthew Stafford shredded that secondary for another 4 touchdowns in an easy 34-10 win.

Jaguars at Raiders: Pete Carroll Never Learns

What a crazy game. It was almost scoreless at halftime before Brock Bowers reminded us why he’s the next big thing at tight end with the first of three touchdown catches on the day. Then Jacksonville kicker Cam Little made NFL history with a 68-yard field goal, smashing He Who Shall Not Be Named’s record of 66 yards.

The crazy thing is I watched Little kick a 70-yard field goal against the Steelers in the August preseason, but that doesn’t count as the official NFL record. So, it’s cool to see him get it for real, and it was a big 3 points in a back-and-forth game that went to overtime.

We also got to see the first game in NFL history where a team scored an overtime touchdown and the game didn’t immediately end due to the new rules. That also makes it the first game ever where both teams scored a touchdown in overtime.

The Raiders were right to go for the 2PC win as a tie does them no good in the standings. But throwing again without using Ashton Jeanty? I guess Pete Carroll never learns. The slant from the right was wide open too, but Geno Smith threw the other direction and it was batted down. I wonder if he threw right if it would have worked out for him.

Jaguars steal another one to move to 5-3 but I’m still not sold on this team.

49ers at Giants: San Francisco Escapes MetLife Intact

With all the injuries these teams have had, playing at MetLife Stadium has to be a daunting task for the road team given the venue’s reputation for altering careers. But it seems like the 49ers escaped unscathed, and they also got the 34-24 win, largely controlling the game for the last 50 minutes.

Still sold on Jaxson Dart, assuming he can stay healthy, to be a good one who elevates his teammates. But nothing he could do about the defense when it plays this poorly.

Chargers at Titans: Pyrrhic Victory

The Chargers got the 27-20 win in Tennessee but not the cover thanks to a couple of early return touchdowns by the Titans, including a pick-six thrown by Justin Herbert. That means Jim Harbaugh’s defense actually gave up net minus-1 points as Cam Ward had another rough day.

But it comes as a pyrrhic victory for the Chargers (6-3) after losing tackle Joe Alt again to an ankle injury that could require surgery. Herbert ended up taking six sacks in this game against an undermanned Tennessee defense.

The Steelers are up next too for the Chargers on SNF, so those turnovers and sacks could return as there’s no way Alt is playing next week.

Seahawks at Commanders: It’s All Over Now

We knew Seattle had the better team, but damn. This was over before halftime, a half that saw Sam Darnold throw 4 touchdowns and complete all 16 of his passes. I took a nap for the second half, and woke up to see a horrible elbow injury for my guy Jayden Daniels, which should end his season with the team at 3-6.

No point in risking it, but I’d have said the same thing about putting him back out there in a 31-point game in the fourth quarter. That’s four touchdowns against a great defense and a quarterback on fire. The game is decided. Protect your asset as no team has ever erased a deficit larger than 25 points in the fourth quarter. It wasn’t going to happen here, and now we’re stuck with Mariota again in a doomed season.

The only good news is it’s not Daniels’ throwing arm, so this will be a minor setback in his career. But I was wrong to think the Commanders would return to the playoffs this year. I’m glad I didn’t go all in and have them winning the NFC East and possibly going a step further to the Super Bowl. There were holes on defense they didn’t fix, and the injuries have piled up this year. That’s too bad.

But the Seahawks look excellent and could be a dark horse to go the distance.

Next week: The big one is obviously Monday night with Eagles at Packers. Fascinating game that’s totally unpredictable with the way those teams are playing, but I lean Philly on the strength of last year’s sweep and Tyler Kraft’s injury. But before we get there, we have a bad TNF game with Raiders vs. Broncos. Falcons at Colts in Germany could be good if the good Falcons show up. Ravens at Vikings might be good. Patriots at Bucs a highlight for 1 PM slate. Rams at 49ers is the 4:25 game to watch. Steelers-Chargers could be good on SNF. Not a bad schedule except for the start of the week, but even then, the Broncos can make any game a comeback opportunity.

NFL 2025 Week 9 Predictions: Have a Day, AFC Edition

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I thought about calling this one “Maye Day Edition” to go over the latest bullshit on Twitter with Patriots fans about my Drake Maye tweet. But then I thought why waste more of my weekend giving them attention when these are people who can’t even understand simple math concepts like how 26 isn’t more than 26, or what’s a comeback as opposed to a game-winning drive. Just some of the dumbest shit I’ve ever seen.

We’ll save that for another day, but yeah, I think a parlay of Maye over 29.5 attempts (that’s his real line) and NE ML is a solid bet. Well, the 2025 Falcons being the most random fuck-ass team in the league this year doesn’t help, but I’ll have to give that a play somewhere this weekend especially since it actually makes some sense given how Atlanta plays this year.

But we have big AFC games in Colts-Steelers and Bills-Chiefs. I’ve given a lot of my thoughts on those games in the NFL picks link below, but I really do think we could see the Chiefs win this game and never have to face Buffalo until next season at the earliest. Not looking like a year they’ll meet in the playoffs but still plenty of time to go.

I also think the Steelers pull it off somehow as I actually started to see stories this week about Tomlin’s job security. Perfect way to end that drama with a big win over the team with the best record in the NFL. I know on paper it doesn’t make a ton of sense, but the Colts have to have a crash back to Earth type of game on offense eventually don’t they? Even if it means great fumble luck for the Steelers. Blitz Jones relentlessly and hope for the best. Let Rodgers rip it all day on the other side. Steelers by 1-6.

This Week’s Articles

2025 NFL Quarterback Rankings Week 9: Jordan Love Steals the Shine from Aaron Rodgers’ Night in Pittsburgh
2025 NFL Award Races: Why Patrick Mahomes vs. Josh Allen Is Not the Game to Decide MVP, and the Daniel Jones Double Standard
Scott’s Seven NFL Picks: Week 9

I actually forgot about the award races article. I wrote about each one with updated odds and picks, and I obviously spent most of the time on the MVP case, the double standard for RB vs. QB when the QB is someone like Daniel Jones, and why Chiefs vs. Bills shouldn’t be the game to decide it.

NFL Week 9 Predictions

The main thing this week is to see if we’ll get any bounce back of closer games after last week’s historic amount of blowouts. Thursday got off to a bad start with the Ravens already crushing the Dolphins 28-7. I was actually 10-3 ATS last week but I’m afraid regression will probably come for me this week before it does the close games after two weeks of blowouts.

Is my vision going or does that table look closer to gray than white with the exception of the ATL-NE line? Weird.

I hate weeks when I pick so many favorites, but that’s just how it crumbles sometimes, and injuries have a lot to do with why I’m picking these favorites. Sure, I see some upset potential but didn’t go through with it for most.

ATL-NE: At this point, who knows what the hell Atlanta will do in any given week. They can lose 30-0 or they can win 28-3. Probably not the latter against this opponent but it’s not a game I’d invest in.

DEN-HOU: Could certainly go either way and the Broncos are better in close games than the Texans. But I see Nico Collins and I don’t see Patrick Surtain II on the other side, and that’s advantage Houston for me. Throw in the best defense Nix has seen on the road all year and I’m rolling with Houston.

LAC-TEN: Could the Chargers screw this up after losing to Jaxson Dart already? Yeah, always. But I think with Joe Alt back, you’ll see a more confident Justin Herbert shine against the worst team in the NFL right now. Chargers by double digits even if just barely.

CHI-CIN: Certainly a winnable game but I don’t like Joe Flacco’s injury news. Might hamper some throws and I think the Bears can win this one late.

SF-NYG: I’ll trust Mac Jones on the road if only because the Giants keep losing their best skill players. The total still looks high to me but I see some predicting CMC for a huge day. We’ll see.

MIN-DET: Another look at J.J. McCarthy. I like Justin Jefferson to score a TD here but will back the Lions to score too much for the youngster to keep up.

NO-LAR: Sean McVay has blown some huge spreads in the past. Remember the Adam Gase game? Tyler Shough could be a disaster against that pass rush, but it’s such a huge spread and I think Kellen Moore has done a respectable job of keeping it close. Maybe a backdoor cover situation here.

JAX-LV: Travis Hunter out just when he was finding his way as a WR. That sucks. Jakobi Meyers back for the Raiders. I think they get the home upset if you can call it one.

KC-BUF: Might throw a SGP on Twitter later tonight but I think the Chiefs win their first close game (0-3) of the season, which doesn’t mean they have to win by 1-8 points. It could be a game where the Bills have a comeback opportunity, fail, then the Chiefs score again to win by 10-14 or whatever. Remember, the Bills have trailed by double digits in the 4th quarter to the best teams they’ve seen this year (Ravens, Pats, Falcons).

SEA-WAS: I think JSN kills the secondary and McLaurin is out for Washington. Tough break for my guy Jayden Daniels.

ARI-DAL: The Jacoby Brissett news is very encouraging if you ask me. Makes the game more watchable as I think he throws for 300+ yards, scores 27+ points, and the Cowboys still win by one score because he’s one of the worst 4QC/GWD QBs in NFL history. But it should be entertaining.

2025 NFL Stat Oddity: Week 5

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It only took until Week 5, but we’ve reached that point in the NFL season where “no team is great” and everyone has a loss. Everyone has a win too, except for the Jets. As Artie Lange once said, there are times where girls won’t fvck you, but the Jets will always fvck you.

But I knew Sunday would be a crazy day when so many games had a small spread, and some of those games actually were among the biggest blowouts. This was one of the worst weeks I’ve ever had at picking winners as I’m 4-9 heading into MNF with the Chiefs left.

Definitely the kind of day that should make you reevaluate everything from the MVP to John Harbaugh’s job status in Baltimore to who might win the AFC East. The remaining members of the 1972 Dolphins could pop the champagne tonight, and the 1976 Buccaneers, 2008 Lions, and 2017 Browns are warming up the Faygo bottles for the 2025 Jets.

We’ve had eight games with a comeback opportunity this week, but it’s very interesting to note that Sunday had five double-digit comeback wins after zero in Week 4 and five in Weeks 1-3 combined.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Patriots at Bills: AFC East Game of the Year Decade?

The good news is we still have an AFC East race in 2025 between the Patriots and Bills. The bad news is the Bills may have just given the Patriots and their fanbase the relevance they’ve been seeking again for the past few years.

In the first half, both teams looked like they have been taking advantage of weak schedules and weren’t ready for primetime. Lots of penalties by Buffalo, and the Bills even coughed up two fumbles, including the first one by a non-quarterback (Keon Coleman) since the 2024 season started.

That contributed to the Bills losing the turnover battle 3-1, ending their record 26-game streak of not losing the turnover battle. But even those two early fumbles only led to a New England field goal as the Patriots gave one right back with Rhamondre Stevenson, who is known for that. At least he redeemed himself with two touchdowns.

Yes, the second half was like night and day as the offenses actually strung together scoring drives. Josh Allen had a bad pick in the red zone late in the third quarter on a night where James Cook was held in check. That led to a touchdown and 20-10 lead in the fourth quarter for New England.

In his first prime-time game, Drake Maye was nothing special in the first half. But he came of age in the second half with some brilliant throws that do look like a younger Josh Allen when he was breaking out in 2020. Except there was a hostile crowd in the background this time as Maye led the Patriots on scoring marches of 74, 90, and 37 yards in the second half.

Even after Buffalo tied the game at 20, Maye didn’t blink despite being 0-6 on previous game-winning drive attempts in his career. I thought his broken tackle to get a pass away to an incredible game from Stefon Diggs on the drive’s opening play was the best play of them all as a sack here could have blew things up in regulation.

Then he followed that up with a perfect 19-yard throw down the sideline. I wasn’t sure if New England’s rookie kicker was going to deliver, but maybe sixth-round pick Andres Borregales is about to start his own legacy after he was perfect on a 52-yard kick with 15 seconds left. Adam Vinatieri would be proud of that one, and I don’t think Stephen Gostkowski ever had one that significant in his long career.

The Bills didn’t have enough time to answer and took the loss to ensure we wouldn’t see any team start 5-0 this year. The Bills were only able to score 20 points on 10 drives as it’s a lot harder to score efficiently when you lose some fumbles and have poor average field position at your own 23 on the night.

The penalty yardage also cracked 90 for both teams, so it was a sloppy performance all around for both that I’m sure they’d like to improve on. But it wasn’t a fluky upset by any means like when the 2021 Patriots won by completing 2 passes on a windy night in Buffalo. The Bills haven’t been that sharp these last few games, and the Patriots made them pay for it.

I will say it’s not a great sign if the Bills need a double-digit comeback in the fourth quarter at home when they face a team that’s even remotely competent like Baltimore (Week 1 version) and now New England. The schedule is of course their crutch, but the Patriots get a very similarly easy schedule, and they don’t have to play the Chiefs, Texans, or Eagles. They get the Raiders, Giants, and Titans.

Granted, the Patriots already lost to the Raiders in Week 1, but this win should really boost their confidence. What they can’t do is let this be the peak of their season as the game was obviously personal (his word, not mine) for Stefon Diggs, who played a fantastic game in his return to Buffalo.

There’s a lot of season left, and the AFC East isn’t out of reach now that you got this win in Buffalo. But the great teams, the Patriots of old, they would build on this win and get a streak going. The Patriots have the Saints, Titans, and Browns next. Let’s see if they can get to 6-2 or not.

Maybe the oddsmakers weren’t crazy when they had this team favored in 11 games in May when the earliest lines came out. But as this game and many of the other games in Week 5 around the league showed, no one is great enough to just run the table anymore. It’s a week-to-week league, and this week the Patriots were a little better than Buffalo.

Remember, both of these teams almost lost to the Dolphins. No super teams in 2025. Game on.

Broncos at Eagles: Where Did That Come From?

We’re getting some solid evidence that Nick Sirianni is only as good as his coordinators he relies on so much. Vic Fangio stayed after the Super Bowl win, and his defense was awesome for three quarters on Sunday, forcing seven punts on eight drives while only giving up a field goal.

But in the fourth quarter, the Broncos flipped the script with three scoring drives for 18 points, including a curious decision to go for two by Sean Payton when it was a 17-16 game instead of earlier when the Broncos were down 14 as most teams like to do it. It all ended up working out, but I’m not sure the process was the best there.

Speaking of bad process, what the hell is the Philadelphia offense this year? The offensive coordinator (Kevin Patullo) is clearly in over his head as he can’t seem to strike any balance at all. The Eagles either throw the ball short the whole game, or like in this game, they neglect the run altogether.

How does Saquon Barkley get 6 carries for 30 yards to 46 plays for Jalen Hurts in a game you led 17-3 in the fourth quarter? How? Sure, the wideouts bitched about their targets last week, and that star duo got 18 targets this week. Technically, more like 19 as A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith were caught fighting over the incomplete Hail Mary to end the game in the most fitting fashion ever.

But all the passing this week didn’t help the Eagles score any points on their last five drives after that great big pass play to Barkley for a touchdown that made it 17-3. Denver finally clamped down and got multiple sacks on Hurts.

Before Denver’s final field goal, I think the late hit penalty on Zack Baun was iffy since the runner was still trying to churn forward for the yard he needed, so I understand why Baun did the hit. I also don’t think this type of late hit gets called that often.

Having said that, in hindsight, it may have helped the Eagles get a chance to win the game. Had there been no flag, the Broncos would face 4th-and-inches there. I have to think Sean Payton goes for it to end the game as 1 yard would run out the clock with the Eagles down to their last timeout. Either they call it right away or right after the 2-minute warning, but either way, if the Broncos convert 4th-and-1 with a running clock, the game is over right there.

So, that’s one way to think about the Baun call not deciding the game as I don’t think it did. What the Eagles really needed was another one of those blocked kicks but no such luck this week.

The winning streak is over, and the Eagles are going to have to play much better than this. They’ve gotten away with things for four weeks, but the Broncos had enough tricks up their sleeve to get past this team in Philly.

More will do it to them too if they don’t sort this offense out. 18 points shouldn’t be enough to beat this team, but on Sunday, it was good enough.

Texans at Ravens: Ruh-Roh

When you put Baltimore’s injuries this way, maybe I was foolish to pick them to beat a Houston team that also didn’t want to start 1-4 and can play strong defense.

But 44-10? What a walloping from a Houston team that was stuck in a 6-0 slugfest with the Titans to start the fourth quarter a week ago. I just hope people don’t act like this is all Lamar Jackson being out as the Ravens clearly are missing top players in the trenches, the secondary, linebacker Roquan Smith, and Derrick Henry (15 carries for 33 yards) just hasn’t been the same guy since the Buffalo fumble on opening night.

The final stat line for Cooper Rush is going to look bad with 3 interceptions, but he had 2 incompletions at a time when the Texans had already scored three touchdowns. The picks came later as the Texans scored on their first eight drives before calling the dogs off.

With the Rams coming up next and some of these injuries lingering, I’m not sure coach John Harbaugh can make it to next season at this rate. They might just say you’ve had enough cracks at it, we’re going in a different direction. Though, I’m not sure how many coaches would do well with a team missing this many highly-paid players.

The non-quarterback skill positions are where the Ravens are at their healthiest, but those players usually aren’t worth a lick if you don’t have a good quarterback or tackle to get them the ball.

Houston clearly viewed this as a get-right game and C.J. Stroud and company were excellent. He knew to get the ball out fast after past struggles to score any touchdowns in three games against this defense.

But that defense on Sunday? That’s not the Baltimore defense I know. I feel like the plane lady. “Those motherfvckers are not real.”

But the 1-4 record? Very real right now.

Buccaneers at Seahawks: Passing Clinic from the 2018 Class

Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold have been playing well this year and last season, but Sunday’s 38-35 shootout took things to another level. You can say it was one of the most efficient passing shootouts we’ve ever seen with the ball rarely hitting the ground.

The kind of game where the last one with the ball wins, but that’s the kind of game you don’t want to get into this year with the Buccaneers, who have now won four games by 1-3 points in five weeks. They turned things around late after trailing by 7 too, and when it looked like Darnold would be the one to drive for the field goal, he hit his lineman in the head with a ball that was then deflected for a crushing interception.

Light work for Mayfield already in field goal range, so the Bucs had an easy one to finish it off for the big win. Seattle’s defense has played so well but had no real answers for the Tampa passing game even without Mike Evans.

Emeka Egbuka continues to be one of the most impressive rookie wideouts you’ll ever see too. Caught all 7 targets for 163 yards and another touchdown. He just plays like he’s a 5-year vet in his absolute prime.

Tough way for the Seahawks to lose some ground in the NFC at home.

Commanders at Chargers: I’m Disappointed

I really thought this game had the potential to be Sunday’s best with the Chargers coming off a loss and Jayden Daniels returning for the Commanders. Daniels did his part, but the Chargers were very disappointing with 10 points scored. Justin Herbert learning exactly how hard it is when your right tackle is wasting big gains with penalties, your left tackle (Joe Alt) is out, and you’re getting a pass deflected at the line (again) for a pick.

It looked like Herbert threw his red-zone pick right to the defender but it was a deflection. That was the killer as the score was 20-10 at the time in the fourth quarter.

Then the Commanders drove 99 yards for a touchdown they didn’t necessarily need on 4th-and-goal, but I’ll sure take it since the Deebo Samuel score hit a parlay for me. I like to think that’s good karma for me singing the praises of Daniels since early last season.

But yeah, I think Herbert has really damaged his MVP chances these last two games, and the Chargers are looking like a team that’s not ready after all to overtake the Chiefs in the AFC West. Long way to go but funny how big a difference two weeks can make in this league.

Raiders at Colts: Geno Smith Spending His Nights in the Casinos?

“Diminishing returns” was probably the phrase I used the most this offseason about Geno Smith’s tenure in Seattle. But he was better than this in 2024. He’s just throwing anything he feels like with the Raiders, and he couldn’t even get the ball in the end zone once in this 40-6 loss.

Meanwhile, Daniel Jones was sharp again. No sacks, no turnovers. The Colts scored six straight touchdowns at one point. Granted, turnovers and a blocked punt meant three of them covered 58 yards, but they had drives of 83, 88, and 68 yards too.

A good sign that this offense and defense can just roll an inferior team like this.

Browns vs. Vikings: London Calling, And You Are Not the LOAT

I missed most of this game (sleeping), but it seems like Dillon Gabrield handled himself pretty well. No turnovers. Led a couple of touchdown drives (one of respectable length/effort) against a defense that’s supposed to be so hard to figure out.

But probably not going to be the next LOAT if your defense is giving up a clutch drive to Carson Wentz in London.

I thought Cleveland stayed pretty conservative on offense late and didn’t put this one away. You give Wentz five drives with those weapons to get a go-ahead touchdown, and chances are he’ll do it eventually. He was good on the last drive as was Jordan Addison on the game winner.

Lions at Bengals: Jake Browning Is Blowing It

I know some of the numbers look gaudy like those for Jared Goff, but the Detroit offense was not that special in Cincinnati. The running game only averaged 3.6 yards per carry. Detroit had 14 points on six first-half drives, but that included a 17-yard drive after a Jake Browning interception.

I think this game is the opposite of Ravens-Texans in the way the backup quarterback was the one throwing the game away early here before the defense did so late. Browning’s three picks were largely brutal and in his own end of the field, making it too easy on Detroit’s offense.

The nicest thing I can say is Browning did well enough after it was 28-3 that he’ll probably keep his job for the next game. But this was just so poor early that the Bengals never stood much of a chance.

Titans at Cardinals: What. The. Fvck?

You want to see one of the worst blown leads in NFL history? Bookmark this game. The Cardinals led 21-3, so Cam Ward gets his first win and first game-winning drive with an 18-point comeback, but I can’t really give him much credit outside of the last drive was nice to set up the field goal.

But it should never have come to that. Arizona’s inability to add to the 21-6 lead in the second half is all-time bad stuff from an NFL team.

First, Kyler Murray has a fumbled snap play at the Tennessee 20 where he looks woozy and has to temporarily leave the game; just a weird looking play they described as a foot issue.

In the fourth quarter, third-year back Emari Demercado breaks off what should be a 72-yard touchdown run to make it 28-6. But when he started slowing down despite L’Jarius Snead’s pursuit, I knew he was in trouble. This was going to be a Leon Lett situation all over again. But then he dropped the ball early to celebrate and it became the 2008 DeSean Jackson play, which is about the dumbest thing you can do in a game. Adonai Mitchell (Colts) just did this shit last week to cost the Colts a game.

I would cut his ass tomorrow. He’s a UDFA who just fumbled the biggest run of his career. He’s expendable. Make a point to the rest of the league that if you do this, you get cut.

From there, good deep throw by Ward to Calvin Ridley for 47 yards to set up a touchdown, though the Cardinals missed an extra point some would argue they shouldn’t have been kicking anyway. So, it was still a 2-score game at 21-12. Then with just under 5:00 left, Ward gets picked on a tipped ball that is somehow fumbled, recovered by the Titans and good for a touchdown to make it 21-19. Just one of the craziest bounces you’ll ever see.

Let’s not close the book on Ward’s LOAT case yet. My goodness. Then of course, lackadaisical Murray and his offense couldn’t close the deal on their end with some conservative runs by the coordinator. That put it on the defense in the last two minutes, and for the third week in a row, the Cardinals watched a team win on a field goal with no time left on the clock, a first in NFL history.

This was some serious 2006 Rex Grossman shit by Tennessee winning the game that way. I wouldn’t be surprised if Arizona (2-3) craters from here a la Chicago last year after the Hail Mary in Washington.

Giants at Saints: Dropping the Dart on Your Foot

I picked the Saints to get their first win for coach Kellen Moore and quarterback Spencer Rattler as they just have more weapons to lean on than the Giants do with Malik Nabers out. That certainly proved true, but it’s not like the Giants didn’t literally fumble this game away after an early 14-3 lead before the Saints scored the final 23 points.

Jaxson Dart, they show his mom more in one game than all of Taylor Swift’s screentime in 2024. But Dart had a really bad fumble in the second half where he just dropped the ball on a scramble. Then Cam Skattebo, the other Great White Hope here had a bigger fumble that was returned for a touchdown one play into the fourth quarter when the Giants were down 19-14. That was a dagger.

Should the Saints have drafted Dart? Maybe. But this game certainly didn’t make them feel regret.

Dolphins at Panthers: One Man’s Trash Is Another Man’s Super Bowl to Call

I know Mark Sanchez has a different role (analyst) for FOX than Eric Collins (play-by-play), but it’s amusing to view this weekend as the one where FOX likely lost one and gained the other. We’ll see what the facts say about the Sanchez fight/stabbing case, but it doesn’t sound promising for his innocence and future employment.

Meanwhile, Collins may have just supplanted Gus Johnson as the guy who can bring energy to NFL games you really don’t want to watch. This guy got a 17-0 stinker between the Dolphins and Panthers where Miami forgot how to score and the Panthers kept making big play after big play behind Rico Dowdle (206 rushing yards) and company.

It ended up going back and forth, and you would have thought from the way Collins, the voice of the Charlotte Hornets, called the game that you were watching a Super Bowl or something important.

When I heard Collins say, “the Dolphins are hanging on like a cat on a screen door” I knew something great was going to come out of this guy’s mouth after that gem, and he took the internet by storm with his enthusiastic calls:

From now on, I want Eric Collins calling D-crew games. Screw hearing the likes of Spero Dedes or Jonathan Vilma doing games involving the Cardinals, Titans, Panthers, and Saints. Give me Mr. Collins from now on. Please and thank you.

But yeah, the Dolphins (1-4) are pure trash to blow a 17-point lead to a team as bad as Carolina.

Cowboys at Jets: Just End the Season…

Any idea that the Cowboys were a road fraud on offense this year was shut down by the poor defense the Jets play on a weekly basis for Aaron Glenn. The Cowboys were balanced with four touchdown passes from Dak and 180 rushing yards. I never even heard of Ryan Flournoy (2024 sixth-round pick), but the Cowboys got 114 receiving yards out of him with CeeDee Lamb still out.

Dallas led 30-3 late in the third quarter before some points in garbage time for Justin Fields and the offense. That’s two weeks in a row I picked the Jets and got burned badly. I just don’t think you can pick them to win right now. They’re poor on both sides of the ball.

Next week: Eagles-Giants on TNF isn’t the best way to start a week, but maybe some divisional drama can emerge. No chance in hell I’m getting up for Broncos-Jets in London or Germany or whatever they’re doing this week. We’ll see if the Rams can drop the Ravens to 1-5, and at this point, why shouldn’t they? Sunday afternoon is pretty bad (Bucs-49ers the best?) but it gives way to a hell of a game at night with Lions-Chiefs. Then it’s another one of those silly MNF overlapped doubleheaders (Bills-Falcons and Bears-Commanders). Much better games than last week’s, at least.

NFL 2025 Week 5 Predictions: Tiny Spread Edition

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We’ve already made it to Week 5 this NFL season as September is in the books. The first game of October was pretty good as I certainly didn’t think the shorthanded 49ers would beat the Rams like that, but these 49ers look different, winning almost every close game and doing it 60% of the time with Mac Jones at QB. Crazy stuff and the best argument yet for Kyle Shanahan’s system working.

In fact, I wrote about it after the game how he could go on to win his first Coach of the Year award if he wins this tough NFC West, but don’t sleep on the Seahawks.

This Week’s Articles

2025 NFL Quarterback Rankings Week 5: Patrick Mahomes Outduels Lamar Jackson Again and the Wild Start to the Jaxson Dart Era
2025 NFL Award Races Through the First Quarter: Are We Headed Towards Josh Allen vs. Patrick Mahomes for MVP?
Scott’s Seven NFL Picks: Week 5

I had my first look at the NFL award races where I changed three picks I made a month ago, including MVP after Joe Burrow was knocked out in Week 2. Not that I ever trusted him to win it on merit. I was betting on how the voters would play it.

As for the Week 5 picks, I like Travis Kelce in Jacksonville a day after his birthday, I really like the Commanders-Chargers game to be a good one, and I think the Bills take care of the Patriots on Sunday night. I’m also teasing the under in London, and for the winless Jets and Saints to show up.

NFL Week 5 Predictions

Tough loss for the Rams to fall behind in the division like that. Certainly had their chances, and I agree 100% with going for it on 4th-and-1 in overtime. If you kick the FG, you trigger sudden death and may never see the ball again. Win is more valuable than the tie there obviously. And maybe the biggest reason is I simply don’t trust that FG unit for the Rams right now with all these blocks.

We actually have four games with a 1.5-point spread this Sunday. That’s a lot as there were only five such games in Weeks 1-4 this season. If you go back to 2011, the team favored by 1.5 covers just over 53% of the time, but it’s usually better when the road team is the one favored (57.3%) like we have in 3 games this Sunday.

But I’ve really mixed it up. I think Baltimore gets the win over Houston even without Lamar Jackson and some key defenders, because I just don’t believe in the Houston offense in this particular matchup. I think the Ravens simplify things on both sides of the ball and lean on Derrick Henry more to get that win at home. But it is unbelievable to see a spread move 11 points after a QB was announced as doubtful.

I’m not sure what to make of Carolina other than that’s not a good team. Neither is Miami, but I just think the Dolphins could build on Monday night’s win and get another here, even without Tyreek Hill.

Then I did indeed go with the Saints and Jets getting their first wins. I think the Saints catch a break with Malik Nabers out as I’m not sure where the passing game is coming from with New York. I also think the Jets winning and Dallas scoring under 20.5 would be a nice play as I keep using that stat about Justin Fields going 0-25 when the opponent scores more than 20. So, if he’s going to win a game for the Jets, it’s likely going to come on a great defensive game, and we’ve already seen Dallas have two scoreless halves on the road and CeeDee Lamb is still out.

Of course, Fields could win a higher-scoring game for the first time in his career, so maybe the best pick is just to take the Jets to win that game. The Cowboys are certainly not above losing this one.

As for these other games, I think the Eagles perk up a little on offense, A.J. Brown still won’t be happy given it’s Denver, and the defense helps to cover the spread on a “Bo Picks” kind of day.

I think Chargers vs. Commanders is the Sunday game I’d most like to watch in full. I think the Chargers pull it out by one possession at home. I’m betting on Ladd McConkey to do well this week after taking a backseat the first month to Allen and QJ.

Tough call on TB-SEA this week. I’d probably back the home team in either case, so it’s Seattle for me with that defense as the Bucs still aren’t back to full health.

I think the Bills win by 8-to-14 points on Sunday night to quiet some of this Drake Maye/Patriots hype that’s building. I’d say beating up on the Dolphins and Panthers isn’t impressive, but it’s not like the Bills can point to a tough schedule this year either.

I wrote about Chiefs-Jaguars here already, but I think the Chiefs take care of business and cover.

2024 NFL Stat Oddity: Week 18

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The conclusion of Week 18 in the NFL means it’s time I reflect on my preseason predictions. Let’s just say I’m not feeling great at all about my Super Bowl pick (Packers over Chiefs), but at least the Packers and Texans, two teams I hyped up, are in the tournament. You never know.

But I seem to have continued my troubling pattern of being way off on my picks every other year. I was off by an average of 2.88 wins this season, my worst since I started tracking this in 2013.

2024 NFL Predictions

In my defense, I bet a lot of people were thrown by some of the 10-win teams this season as the Vikings (14-3), Commanders (12-5), and Broncos (10-7) all blew away expectations with rookie quarterbacks and a career year from Sam Darnold. I picked the Commanders and Vikings specifically to finish 4-13, so that accounts for a lot of the disparities.

Then I was also done in by some of the most disappointing teams this season like the 49ers and Jets, who both blew a lot of leads in games they should have won this year. They blew 10 leads between them with the Jets (6) leading the league in that category with a way too dramatic season with Aaron Rodgers getting people fired.

It ended up being a top-heavy season with seven teams winning 12+ games, including four teams winning 14+ games. Helping to balance things, we had 10 teams lose 12+ games, so there were a lot of poor teams too. That’s probably going to lead to a real balancing act in 2025 where more teams should move closer to .500, so it’ll be important not to overreact to some of these records.

As for Week 18, the early slate produced some unexpected close games, the late slate was devoid of any real drama, and Sunday night was a bummer because of Sam Darnold’s awful game. In all, we had 9 games with a comeback opportunity.

For the last time this season, let’s run through a recap of all 32 teams in their final game of 2024.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Vikings at Lions: The New Year’s Ghost

It took 18 weeks, 17 games, and the 272nd and final game of the regular season before the worst nightmare for Minnesota fans became reality. On the big stage with the No. 1 seed on the line, Sam Darnold was seeing ghosts and shitting his pants.

People are going to see a 31-9 final score and just chalk it up as a Detroit blowout, but this was Minnesota’s game for the taking well into the third quarter when it only trailed 10-9 despite so many missed opportunities. Red zone play was the main culprit as Darnold was just abysmal in that confined space, missing receivers left and right. The Lions challenged him with a good pass rush while playing man coverage, and he simply couldn’t beat it with so many balls overthrown and off the mark. Darnold finished 18-of-41 for 166 yards. No turnovers but failing three times on fourth down is just as bad, especially when multiple drives were inside the Detroit 3.

The Lions were already No. 1 in red zone EPA/pass allowed, and that number should only look better after this game. But what a shocker to see this game produce four touchdowns, and all four were scored by Jahmyr Gibbs for Detroit.

Matchups matter, and maybe the Vikings could come up with some better man-coverage beaters in a rematch should there be one. But I think this game changes a lot of the feelings about these teams going into the playoffs as the Lions may in fact have enough on defense to get the job done for the Super Bowl, and the Vikings might just end up going 14-4 with sweeps by the Lions and Rams (their next opponent).

I’ve been pro-Darnold this season and he’s been passing so many different tests. But given this was the biggest game of his career, I can’t say I’m confident about what he’ll do in the playoffs when the season truly is on the line. At least this was a trial run and he got a taste of the atmosphere, but that was brutal to watch all night.

Saints at Buccaneers: Baker’s Legs to the Rescue

One of the day’s most entertaining games was watching Tampa Bay struggle as a two-touchdown home favorite against Spencer Rattler and the Saints with a division title on the line. I always say division games are scary. But despite being an offensive juggernaut in many games this year, the Bucs were down 16-6 at halftime and 19-13 going into the fourth quarter.

But Baker Mayfield’s legs made up for a slow start to his passing. He ran 9 times for 68 yards in this game, including some huge plays in the fourth quarter to lead a comeback. He also got things going with Jalen McMillan, who had a huge catch on fourth down and a touchdown on a drive where he was wrongfully penalized for a finger-pointing celebration that had nothing to do with gun violence. Then Mike Evans started making plays as he needed 85 yards in the game to reach 1,000 yards for the 11th year in a row.

Meanwhile, the Saints added to their misery of not being able to make a single fourth-quarter comeback win for the second season in a row. They were 0-7 this year with four blown leads, and this was just another.

But Baker’s improv on a lateral to Bucky Irving for an 11-yard touchdown gave the Bucs a 27-19 lead with 1:51 left. The Saints turned it over on downs with 36 seconds left. The game was effectively over, but Evans needed 5 more yards to get his 1,000, which would trigger a $3M bonus. It was risky, but they threw a pass to him, and the Saints didn’t seem to mind letting him make the play as he picked up 9 yards and the whole team celebrated as the game was over, the bonus was his, and the NFC South belongs to Tampa Bay.

They would have won it anyway after Atlanta lost in overtime in Carolina, but this was a grind against a really bad New Orleans team that’s missing so many key players. We’ll see how the Bucs fare in a Week 1 rematch with the Commanders, but that might be a better matchup for them than the Vikings.

Bengals at Steelers: Close But No Cigar

Well, I guess the Bengals won the closest thing they’ll have to a playoff game this year as they came through in Pittsburgh in a 19-17 slugfest to reach 9-8. But they didn’t get the help they needed from the Chiefs-Broncos game on Sunday, so they are out. That’s also what happens when you lose 16-10 at home to the Patriots, one of the worst teams in football, in Week 1. September matters too and the Bengals dug too big of a hole to get out of.

But as for the team that is in the playoffs from this game, just what the hell are the Steelers doing to end this season? They’ve lost four games in a row and are playing terrible offense. Even though the start of this game looked like the defense was going to be a disaster, they calmed down and kept the Bengals out of the end zone all night after giving up that opening-drive touchdown. The special teams had a big mistake with a fumble, but they made up for it by recovering a fumble later.

This was on Arthur Smith’s offense. All the nice things I said when they lit up the Bengals in Cincinnati earlier this season, throw them out the window like they never happened. The Steelers sure seemed to forget they did.

Russell Wilson had 414 yards in that first game, taking advantage of YAC and passes to his running backs over the middle. That didn’t exist in this game. Jaylen Warren had 0 catches. Calvin Austin, someone who can catch some quick hitters, had 0 catches. George Pickens caught an early screen that was terrible, then didn’t catch his last five targets, including several awful drops in maybe the worst game I’ve ever seen a Pittsburgh wideout play. He finished with 0 yards and I’d put his chances of a second contract in Pittsburgh at 0.0001%.

For most of the half, Wilson had two completions: the ill-fated screen to Pickens and a brilliant 25-yard catch by Mike Williams. But guess what? Williams never received another target the rest of the game. How the fvck does this happen?

Then even when they had a chance to go get a game-winning field goal, Wilson, a veteran who has done this dozens of times, completely botched the last drive with horrible clock management. I can’t crucify him for the whole game because of the drops by Pickens and then the fourth-and-ballgame drop by Pat Freiermuth, but Wilson was terrible for most of the game. Get rid of the ball faster instead of being a pin cushion for Trey Hendrickson (3.5 sacks).

It’s just such a frustrating offense to watch, because there’s no reason they can’t be better than this. The coaching incompetence is high, and once again, Mike Tomlin has no answers for a losing streak.

They probably embrace going to Baltimore because of past success and playing an ugly, low-scoring game. But they did just lose 34-17 there, so this might be a rude awakening and a 5-game losing streak to end the season.

Chiefs at Broncos: That’s Going to Leave a Mark on the Stats

Well, I guess the Chiefs aren’t very good when they rest their ~13 best players for the playoffs and they’re facing a team that’s playing for their season that already should have beat the KC starters in Arrowhead earlier this year.

But god damn, 38-0? Making Bo Nix look like a mobile Drew Brees. The Broncos outgained them 479-98. You have to go back to the 2000 Browns against the Jaguars to find the last NFL team to get outgained by at least 380 yards while being held under 100 yards.

The Chiefs aren’t going to care about this performance, but it does create an interesting dynamic. What if this spurs the Broncos to go beat Buffalo in this week’s 7-2 matchup, which would send the Broncos right back to Arrowhead after the Chiefs haven’t played their starters for 24-25 days? Getting rid of Buffalo would be ideal, but let’s not act like Denver hasn’t played the Chiefs well even going back to last year. The Chiefs just don’t score much on them and they have multiple DPOY candidates.

Maybe the Broncos flop in Buffalo and it’s a moot point, but they won there last year by forcing the Bills into so many turnovers that they fired their offensive coordinator. The Bills are due for some turnovers too.

Interesting AFC race all around this year. I still think a Bengals-Bills game would have been must-see TV and the most interesting 7-2 game you could have, but we’ll see if Denver can turn this opportunity into something.

Bears at Packers: Not Feeling Good About Green Bay Anymore

If I’m just being honest, the Packers, my preseason Super Bowl pick, haven’t done much to impress me this season. Had it not been for a blocked field goal in Chicago, they would have finished 0-6 in division games. They already lost in Brazil to the Eagles, their playoff opponent. They beat up on a paper tiger like the Dolphins on Thanksgiving and smoked the 49ers without Brock Purdy. They beat the Rams before they were good this year.

What’s their best win? A 24-22 squeaker over the Texans? Maybe they’ll surprise us in the playoffs, but I’m not sure Sunday could have gone much worse as Matt LaFleur suffered his first loss to the Bears, which ended their 10-game losing streak overall and their 11-game losing streak to the Packers by making a field goal at the end. Had the Packers just picked up 2 more yards to get a fresh set of downs, they could have won the game themselves on a walk-off field goal. But they left Caleb Williams time, and after dinking and dunking to little success all day, he came through and his kicker had his back this time.

Jordan Love injured his elbow and his status is unknown. Christian Watson left injured, but what else is new there? I just don’t feel good at all about Green Bay repeating last year’s playoff success as the No. 7 seed. This team won more games (11-6), but what’s impressive? At least they won in Detroit last year and beat the Chiefs.

Commanders at Cowboys: Mariota to the Rescue

While the Packers were losing to the Bears, the Commanders were on the ropes against the Cowboys once again. I’m not sure what Jayden Daniels was trying to accomplish in this game, but after taking several sacks, they sent him to the bench at halftime for veteran Marcus Mariota.

But they continued playing their other starters as Terry McLaurin came up clutch on the game-winning drive. He had four catches on the drive, including the game-winning touchdown from 5 yards out with just 0:03 left. That’s how the Commanders were able to get to 12 wins with a 23-19 victory over a Dallas team that got a monster game out of Micah Parsons (2.5 sacks) and a rare look at Trey Lance, who I still say should have been starting over Cooper Rush after Dak Prescott was lost.

So concludes a very disappointing Dallas season at 7-10. But I will say that Jerry Jones is surprisingly gifted as an actor after seeing him in Landman this weekend.

Panthers at Falcons: Bryce Young Finishes Strong

The Panthers (5-12) could be a trendy pick for the NFC South or wild card next year after a respectable finish for Bryce Young given where his season began. Sunday was arguably his best game ever as he accounted for 5 total touchdowns, including the walk-off winner in overtime in a 44-38 game.

But we have all offseason to talk about whether we can trust that finish or see what pieces the Panthers add to this roster. The more troubling issue is the way Atlanta (8-9) faltered down the stretch, and the way the defense has disappointed rookie quarterback Michael Penix Jr., who led a couple of game-tying touchdown drives but never got the ball in overtime losses to Washington and Carolina.

The Falcons just gave up 44 points in his third start. As you might imagine, Tom Brady went 381 starts in the NFL without his team ever allowing more than 42 points. I like to bring that up only because it puts Brady’s incredible team help in context, but also because most of those games were under Bill Belichick, the coach the Falcons spurred in hiring in favor of Morris this year.

Still liking that move, Mr. Blank?

Seahawks at Rams: Geno’s Money Drive

Not much was on the line for the Seahawks, but Geno Smith had $6 million in incentives to hit, and he pulled off the trifecta for them. The key was getting the 10th win of the season for Seattle, the first 10-win team to miss the playoffs in the 7-team format. But it took a 4QC/GWD for Geno, the richest one of his career as he fought through the pain to throw his fourth touchdown pass to put the Seahawks up late.

Jimmy Garoppolo tried to answer after playing a solid game with the Rams’ backups, but his 4th-and-ballgame pass skipped in there short in a 30-25 loss. I’m a little surprised the Rams didn’t try to win for the No. 3 seed, but I guess they see little difference in No. 4 and No. 3, and they already beat the Vikings this year, their opponent next week.

But a good day for Geno that almost makes up for blowing the first Rams game that cost them the division title in the end.

Chargers at Raiders: Now the Real Fun Begins

Is Week 18 even real football when Quentin Johnston is catching 13-of-14 targets for 186 yards? But look out if he’s playing like that with Justin Herbert having his best defense, his best offensive line, and a real coach going into the playoffs with some momentum and a quality matchup in Houston next week.

This team is Kansas City’s worst nightmare in the divisional round. A gamer like Herbert who already tested them in Arrowhead without Ladd McConkey and J.K. Dobbins, and a pass rush that was after Mahomes all night and held the Chiefs under 20 points in both games. I could easily see NFL Films recording a “Who’s got it better than us?” chant from Harbaugh in a victorious locker room in two weeks to end the three-peat.

But first thing’s first. The Chargers need to deliver in Houston against that pass rush next week. Herbert has to get that first playoff win under his belt.

As for the Raiders, I’d fire the coach and do whatever I can to find some new quarterbacks for 2025.

Dolphins at Jets: Is That It for Aaron Rodgers?

I’m not surprised at all that Aaron Rodgers lit up the Dolphins for four touchdowns in what will probably be his last game for the Jets. Paper tiger defense with a backup quarterback starting in place of Tua Tagovailoa. It was never going to end well for Miami this year, and now Tyreek Hill seems to be on the way out – the Jimmy Butler path?

But Rodgers and the Jets (5-12) were the biggest disappointment in the league this year. If you told someone he’d get a trade for Davante Adams and finished with the stat line he had, you’d think the Jets were 10-7 or 11-6. But they blew a league-high six leads in the fourth quarter and firing Robert Saleh was premature.

Bills at Patriots: New England Wins, New England Loses, New England Fires Coach

The Bills definitely did the right thing by losing this one to make sure the Patriots didn’t have control of the No. 1 pick in the 2025 draft. Don’t need them getting Travis Hunter, but that’s still a possibility if the other teams force quarterback picks at the top.

But the team’s 4th win of the season was no happy ending for owner Robert Kraft, who waited almost no time before firing coach Jerod Mayo. I think that’s the right call since he never should have been hired in the first place and didn’t show any value for the job this year. But the timing was still a bit harsh. Mike Vrabel coming next?

Shout out to Joe Milton though. I don’t care who was on the field for either team. He made some spectacular plays and should get some longer looks in the NFL even if it has to be with another team down the road.

Giants at Eagles: Tanner McKee the New Kevin Kolb or Matt Flynn?

With the way teams are so quarterback starved, Tanner McKee could be making himself some money with these performances late in the year for the Eagles. He’s thrown 4 touchdown passes in basically 6 quarters, and they asked him to throw 41 passes in a wire-to-wire win against the Giants with the Eagles resting their good players – just like the Chiefs did but with far better results against a weaker opponent.

But even with backups, the Eagles had enough on both sides of the ball to get past the Giants, who will finish 3-14 with a ton of question marks.

Hell, maybe they can trade a third-round pick for McKee…

Jaguars at Colts: Overtime? In This Economy?

I guess no one told the Jaguars (4-13) and Colts (8-9) their game didn’t mean anything, because these motherfvckers went to overtime in Week 18. It ended the way you should expect with Joe Flacco leading his 30th game-winning drive with a field goal, and Mac Jones being unable to answer it because of a sack and a 20-yard completion on 4th-and-22.

We’ll see if both coaches are back next year, but I think it’s pretty unlikely, especially in Jacksonville.

Texans at Titans: Will Levis Era Over?

Is it over for Will Levis in Tennessee, which finished 3-14 and secured the No. 1 pick? If so, it was a fitting end in a 23-14 loss in Houston where he was involved in some wild turnover and touchdown plays.

And it seems to me you lived your life

Like a candle in the wind

Never knowing who to throw to

When the blitz came in

And I wish they didn’t draft you

With that high of a pick

Your mayo ran out long before

At least your dick is big

Goodnight, sweet prince.

49ers at Cardinals: When San Francisco Goes Low…

San Francisco’s last 22 seasons since 2003 only include 15 non-winning seasons and 7 trips to at least the NFC Championship Game. There’s no middle ground with this team, which fell to last place in the NFC West with a 6-11 record. The injuries will be blamed for this one, and that’s fair to a degree, but let’s not act like blowing all those fourth-quarter leads in the division didn’t ultimately screw them.

Meanwhile, the Cardinals (8-9) completed the sweep here by running up the score to 47 points, but where was this offense in all those weeks where they couldn’t break 14 or 17 points? Too inconsistent for me.

Browns at Ravens: The Biggest Spread of the Season

For a while there, it didn’t look like the Ravens were going to cover the 20-point spread, the largest this season. They were only up 21-10 in the fourth quarter after dropping a ton of passes, Zay Flowers left early with a knee injury, and the Ravens looked a little bored defensively and frustrated offensively. But Derrick Henry finally got rolling after a poor start, and before you knew it, the Ravens were up 35-10 to put this one away and win the AFC North.

Did Lamar Jackson do enough for his third MVP? I think he already did before the game started. It wasn’t the masterpiece ending for his case, but he didn’t do much wrong in this one. Will voters just go with the pity vote for Josh Allen like the sportsbooks seem to think given the odds? We’ll see. But Jackson just had arguably the greatest dual-threat season ever, and we’ll see if he can turn it into his best playoff run.

Next week: The playoffs. That means the annual Houston playoff game on a Saturday afternoon to kick things off. Then we’ll see if Pittsburgh’s historically underperforming playoff defense will show up again, or if Baltimore’s historically underperforming playoff offense will neutralize it in one of the closest games this weekend. I’m not that sold Denver will give Buffalo a good game, but maybe the Chiefs gave them some confidence in what they’re doing. Packers-Eagles will be played on a better field than Brazil this time. Commanders-Bucs, the last time these teams met in the playoffs in Tampa (January 2006), my furnace was broke, so hopefully that’s not a repeat event this weekend. Vikings-Rams is a perfect matchup to end the week, the rematch of the missed facemask penalty.

2024 NFL Stat Oddity: Week 16

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

The NFL delivered such a frontloaded Week 16 schedule that six of the likely AFC playoff teams already played on Thursday and Saturday. All that Sunday had left was Buffalo slumming it with the Patriots.

But the games were competitive, and 12 of the 15 games so far this week had a comeback opportunity with six game-winning drives already in the books. We saw a concussion knock Jalen Hurts out of the big game in Washington, an iconic performance for Jayden Daniels in the comeback win, and the Cowboys even decided to play hard Sunday night to upset the Buccaneers and bring some chaos to the NFC South.

A week ago, people were flocking towards an Eagles-Bills Super Bowl. Now, that doesn’t look so hot with the reality that neither is likely to be a No. 1 seed, and teams like the Chiefs, Lions, Vikings, Packers, and Ravens are still very much relevant in this race.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Eagles at Commanders: Kenny Pickett? (Read It in the “Scut Farkas?” Narration Voice)

Sunday’s best game on paper turned out to be the best game for reasons no one expected. Jalen Hurts was ruled out early after a concussion on a long run where he just looked a hair off after getting up. That was enough to take him out and replace him with Kenny Pickett of all people.

Oh, it was quite the Pickett experience too as he took 3 sacks with his oblivious nature to the pass rush, he threw a pick, he locked onto basically 2 receivers (A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith had 23 of the team’s 28 pass targets), the Eagles were 3-for-16 on third down, and he still made a couple of clutch throws that probably should have won the game.

But it didn’t work out this time as Philadelphia’s winning streak was snapped at 10 games. The Eagles got a 68-yard touchdown run out of Saquon Barkley, but his other 28 carries only gained 82 yards as the Commanders kept stuffing runs to stay in the game after the offense had 5 turnovers on a sloppy day where they even started the game with a turnover on downs after Brian Robinson Jr. was stuffed on a 4th-and-1 run.

The ability to withstand 5 giveaways and still come back to beat a top defense like the Eagles 36-33 is really impressive for Jayden Daniels, the rookie sensation who absolutely locked up the Offensive Rookie of the Year award here. Even with his skill players fumbling 3 times and giving him 32 rushing yards, Daniels was a dual-threat machine in this game with 258 passing yards and 81 rushing yards. The only other quarterback in NFL history to even have one game with 5 touchdown passes, 220 passing yards, and 70 rushing yards was Cam Newton in 2015 against the Giants, a game that locked up his MVP award that year.

Would things have turned out differently if Hurts wasn’t concussed? Perhaps. But it’s not like the Eagles didn’t score 33 points, didn’t lead 14-0/21-7/27-14, or didn’t rack up takeaways. They just couldn’t finish the job.

Barkley had a big drop on his only pass target in the fourth quarter. Later, Daniels made his biggest mistake with an interception with 2:53 left in a 30-28 game. But instead of icing the game, the Eagles couldn’t convert a 3rd-and-5 when Pickett’s pass was dropped by a wide-open Smith, a shockingly bad drop that’s even worse than the one Barkley had in Week 2 against Atlanta, another improbable loss for the Eagles this year and why their shot at the No. 1 seed is all but toast.

That gave Daniels another shot in a 33-28 game with 1:52 left, and he delivered another clutch drive for a 9-yard touchdown to Jamison Crowder with 6 seconds left to go up 36-33 after a 2-point conversion run.

The Commanders are still going to likely fall short of winning the NFC East, but can you imagine if the wild card match is No. 7 Washington at No. 2 Philadelphia? That just got a lot more likely and interesting after this game.

Texans at Chiefs: Stroud-Mahomes I Not Quite as Planned

When the NFL schedule came out in May, I was hyping up Texans-Chiefs as a huge game for the MVP race and No. 1 seed. I thought C.J. Stroud would be the next challenger to Patrick Mahomes in the AFC, and this game would be his chance on a national stage to show how far he and this team has come against the defending champs.

Well, the season hasn’t quite turned out that way, but both teams still came in as division winners and the Chiefs are chasing the No. 1 seed. I also think Stroud held his own and did a decent job on the road after losing Tank Dell to a gruesome knee injury. He’s already lost Stefon Diggs, so it’s basically Nico Collins and some guys, and one of those guys (tight end Dalton Schultz) had a pretty egregious drop in the second half.

But Stroud also threw two picks, and you can’t do that in Kansas City. The Chiefs are getting that turnover regression in full force now with 8 takeaways in the last two games after 10 takeaways through 13 games. The offense also hasn’t turned it over in 5 straight games, the longest streak in the Mahomes era. So, everything I was saying about turnovers for this team earlier this season is coming true now with the defense starting to get them and the offense avoiding them well.

But it was still another one-score win despite the Chiefs only spending about 5-6 minutes trailing in a game they mostly controlled. Hollywood Brown made his season debut and looked solid given he’s never played a real game before with this offense. Definitely should be a plus going forward. Even Xaiver Worthy played well and scored another touchdown. Still not getting much from the running game, but I like that the Chiefs made a real effort to get the ball out fast against an elite pass rush.

Mahomes played very well, and go figure, he showed on the opening drive that the ankle was no big deal with two huge scrambles, including a 15-yard touchdown run. The Chiefs finished with 27 points on 9 drives, and that includes Kareem Hunt sliding down at the end when he could have scored if he wanted to.

But the Chiefs are more than content with their 27-19 type of victory as they are 14-1 and march towards another No. 1 seed. They get two cracks at winning one game to clinch it.

Steelers at Ravens: Pittsburgh Might Lose Out Now

Why does this game feel so long ago when Saturday was just one day before Sunday? But I wanted to quickly touch on three things with this one.

First, Russell Wilson undoubtedly screwed things up here in a game that was more high scoring than expected and there for the taking. He got greedy on the scramble that turned into a fumble when he should have been satisfied with a 1st-and-goal. Then the pick-six after Minkah Fitzpatrick delivered an incredible pick was just a back breaker and game ender to make it 31-17 in the fourth quarter. Can’t afford those kind of mistakes on the road against a playoff opponent.

As for Mike Tomlin, I think he let the Philadelphia punt beat him twice. Tomlin was rightfully criticized for punting last week in Philadelphia before the Eagles went on to run out the final 10-plus minutes on the clock. But instead of learning the right lesson that the punt was bad because of the 27-13 score and the struggles to get Philly off the field, Tomin ignored the game situation Saturday and made another bad call when he went for a 4th-and-6 at the Baltimore 45 with a whole quarter left. Wilson threw deep to Calvin Austin for an incompletion.

Maybe it’s a moot point since two plays later, Lamar Jackson wasted Derrick Henry’s 44-yard run by throwing a pick, but I still would like to see Tomlin learn when to punt and when to go for it with better skill and reasoning instead of what feels like randomness. He got aggressive in a spot that really didn’t call for it. I also think he was frustrated the Ravens recovered all 3 of those early fumbles that could have really turned this game around. It just wasn’t Pittsburgh’s day as fumble recoveries on those plays is key to how they’ve been beating Baltimore so routinely.

But I wouldn’t say it was exactly Lamar Jackson’s day either. Sure, he threw 3 touchdowns and got his cleanest win yet against the Steelers. But he only hit one 20-yard completion in the game against a secondary that was already missing a corner (Donte Jackson) and lost another (Joey Porter Jr.) to injury. T.J. Watt wasn’t 100% after a fourth-quarter injury last week and wasn’t a factor here. The Ravens recovered Jackson’s early strip-sack fumble. He only had 25 rushing yards on 6 carries, so they kept him contained again. Then he threw a horrible pick in the red zone when the Ravens had their shot to go up two scores.

But Henry rushed for 162 yards and the Steelers left some key receivers open throughout the game. I don’t think they’d have any fear of a rematch even if it was played in Baltimore in the playoffs. George Pickens, Jackson, and Porter Jr. should be back for that one and a healthier Watt (hopefully).

We might end up seeing that too, because it wouldn’t be surprising if the Steelers lost out here with the Chiefs and Bengals up next. I guess it depends on how badly both teams need that Week 18 game.

But the Ravens needed this one to avoid losing the AFC North, and they came through. We’ll see what they do in Houston next while the Steelers have to deal with the Chiefs.

Patriots at Bills: Running Backs Matter?

As new AFC East rivals, you’re going to hear a lot of comparisons between Drake Maye and Josh Allen in the next few years, or at least for as long enough as Maye gives us a reason to.

Here’s one such comparison: Maye’s 2024 rookie season is better than Josh Allen’s 2018 rookie season. If the Patriots invest wisely this offseason, I’d expect Maye’s second season to also be better than Allen’s second season. Anything beyond that might be a stretch.

But that’s the future. As for Sunday, it’s no stretch at all to say Maye outplayed Allen in their first matchup but didn’t get the win because of the difference in how their running backs played. It was 14 degrees at kickoff, but Maye did well throwing the ball in Buffalo, making some excellent plays down the field and in tight windows on shorter throws.

The Patriots led 14-0 early, but they couldn’t build on that lead. Buffalo also quickly cut into half of it with a 46-yard touchdown run by James Cook, his fourth burst from over 40 yards for a score this year. He later added another touchdown catch on another drive where he broke a 25-yard run.

It covered up a poor game from Allen, who threw for 154 yards on 16-of-29 passing. He only had one touchdown pass and threw an ugly looking interception in the end zone that the Patriots were caught trying to return instead of taking the touchback. Allen only rushed for 30 yards too, so it just wasn’t a very effective game for him at all. His 28.7 QBR was the third lowest this week while Maye’s was 67.3.

But this game turned in the third quarter when Rhamondre Stevenson lost a fumble, setting up the Bills for a 50-yard go-ahead field goal on a drive that was just 10 yards long. The Bills led 17-14 and never trailed again from that point. I can’t help but point out all the big fumbles the skill players for the Patriots have had since 2020 after Tom Brady left the team. This didn’t use to happen to them, but it has now and Stevenson is a repeat offender with some huge fumbles in his career.

This game is another glaring example, but the stat sheet is going to show that Maye fumbled on a lateral pass to Stevenson in the fourth quarter that was returned for an easy Buffalo touchdown to make it 24-14.

https://twitter.com/NFL/status/1870980329097539969

Was the pass too hard? Hell no. That’s a pretty soft lob that hit Stevenson right in the hands well before any contact. The problem was he shouldn’t have thrown it as the defender was bearing down and it was going to be a huge loss even if caught. Throwing it backwards to make it a live ball instead of forward to be a swing pass that might go incomplete just made it worse.

But that play really ruined the game for New England, and I swear Stevenson is a double agent at times for this team. Don’t forget the time he choked against the Bengals in 2022 on 1st-and-goal from inside the 5.

Eventually, the Patriots scored a touchdown with 1:13 left, but they wasted almost a full minute after having 1st-and-goal at the 1 with 2:14 left. Antonio Gibson, the other back, was stuffed for a 3-yard loss, leading to an extended series of plays, including a bad dropped fumble by Maye that he recovered, that took a minute off the clock and left the Patriots with little hope of getting the ball back despite keeping all three timeouts.

Maybe Drake Maye should embrace his “the new Josh Allen” and should have did the Tush Push on that 1st-and-goal play at 2:14. Get this thing in before the 2-minute warning and the Patriots could have had 4 clock stoppages in a 24-21 game on a day where Allen wasn’t good.

But this is why the Patriots are 3-12.

Buccaneers at Cowboys: Where Was This Dallas Team Earlier?

The Cowboys (7-8) may have been eliminated from the playoffs Sunday, but they’re possibly a botched punt against Cincinnati away from a 5-game winning streak after taking down the Buccaneers in a wild 26-24 game Sunday night.

Where was this team earlier in the season when it was getting destroyed by 20-point deficits at home every week? Cooper Rush had a successful night against the Tampa Bay defense, and the Buccaneers had some really poor plays with drops and getting outmuscled for the ball by Dallas’ defense who just looked like they wanted it more all night. The interception in the fourth quarter in the end zone was a great example of that.

But what about the ending? It looked like Tampa Bay was going to pull off an improbable 9-point comeback in the last 5:00 by scoring twice. They got the ball back with 1:40 and only needed a field goal. But one of the craziest endings you’ll ever see took place. On the first snap, Baker Mayfield kept fighting to avoid a sack, flipped the ball out to receiving back Rachaad White, who carried it like a loaf of bread before securing it and gaining some YAC.

https://twitter.com/brgridiron/status/1871052626302804198

But even though he got both hands on the ball again, the Cowboys still ripped the ball away from him for a game-deciding fumble. Madness.

Tampa Bay (8-7) is going to need Atlanta to lose a game if it wants to win the NFC South again. This was a bad performance in Dallas for them.

Vikings at Seahawks: Another Close Win for Kevin O’Connell and Sam Darnold

Remember when the Vikings were 5-0 and people started writing them off after a little 2-game losing streak? Well, they’re 8-0 since their last loss, and the latest test they passed was another gut-check win on the road in Seattle against a team playing for a division title chase.

I continue to be impressed with Sam Darnold, who shook off another 3-sack game by still throwing 3 touchdowns, including the game winner from 39 yards out to Justin Jefferson with 3:51 left. Darnold has led 5 game-winning drives this season, doubling his career total he had coming into 2024.

Geno Smith played well on that knee injury for most of the game, but when push came to shove, he took a sack and a fantastic tackle on a 3rd-and-16 checkdown to the running back led to a 60-yard field goal, which was missed with 1:55 left. After Smith got the ball back with 55 seconds left and still in need of a field goal for overtime, he immediately threw a bad pick to end the game.

I’m heavily rooting for the Vikings to beat Green Bay next week so that we can get the last game of the regular season to be Vikings-Lions in Detroit for the No. 1 seed. I’m also not ruling out 2024 being Sam Darnold’s Eli/Flacco/Foles moment as we feel overdue for that kind of postseason.

Lions at Bears: On the Bright Side, No Clock Mismanagement This Time…

The Bears almost beat the Lions on Thanksgiving, but there was no such close finish this time as the score stayed 34-17 the entire final quarter. It didn’t help that the Bears had another slow start, falling behind 20-0, but you have to blame Rome Odunze for a couple of early fumble plays for that this time.

But the Lions were excellent on offense with a big game from Jared Goff and Jahmyr Gibbs in a starring role without David Montgomery (MCL). I believe the theory that offensive coordinator Ben Johnson was “showing off” to impress the Bears’ front office if he is to be their next head coach. Calling that intentional “stumble” play with Goff throwing a touchdown was an excellent example of him pulling out all the tricks even when the Lions probably didn’t need them to beat Chicago again.

But Johnson should want to coach a team like Chicago. First, you stay out of the AFC where most of the elite quarterbacks are, and you have a chance to build up the Bears with Caleb Williams, who again had a game where I think it showed his potential more than it did problems. He threw for 334 yards, no picks again, and he only took 2 sacks this week. He was also his team’s leading rusher again with 34 yards.

Johnson is a hot commodity in the coaching ranks, so we’ll see where he lands next month. But this very well may have been part of his interview with the Bears.

Rams at Jets: Almost a Historic Game

The Rams just can’t play a “normal” game this month. They go from a 44-42 wire-to-wire win over the Bills to a 12-6 comeback win in rainy San Francisco, and now it’s a 19-9 win in New York that looks low scoring as hell, but this game actually came close to being historic.

Each team only had the ball three times in the first half as long drives ruled the day. In the third quarter, the Jets had a drive that lasted nearly 10 minutes and ended with a turnover on downs, a killer and probably a bad decision to go for a 4th-and-4 instead of a short field goal to go up 12-6.

But the Rams’ next drive bled into the fourth quarter, a game-tying field goal drive, so we had a game with just 8 total possessions with 12:44 to play. This could have set the record for the fastest 60-minute NFL game ever played and the one with the fewest possessions between two teams (think 11 would do the trick, maybe 12), but we didn’t get there in the end.

Aaron Rodgers went from some strong drive engineering as his protection held up to giving up the ball on a strip-sack as he got a little too comfortable in holding onto it. That put the Rams on a short field for a go-ahead touchdown drive as Matthew Stafford found a healthy Tyler Higbee for 11 yards. Rodgers couldn’t answer on the ensuing 4th-and-4, and the Rams added a field goal to make it 19-9.

The Jets’ last real hope was a 49-yard field goal with 2:02 left, but as has been the case all season, the kicking team blew it. Even when they tried to get one last possession back, they muffed the punt, so the special teams have been just abysmal for the 2024 Jets.

And that’s how you end up blowing your sixth 4th-quarter lead of the year to lead all teams, the most since Josh McDaniels’ Raiders in 2022. Just going to leave this here, and keep in mind it’s 15 starts that Rodgers started and finished this year as that 16 number includes last year’s Buffalo opener when he tore his Achilles.

https://twitter.com/ScottKacsmar/status/1871091880181870770

Cardinals at Panthers: Adios, Arizona

The Cardinals (7-8) have been eliminated from the playoffs after a bad loss in Carolina. They forced overtime after trailing 20-3 early and 30-20 in the fourth quarter. But losing James Conner, who was having a huge game, didn’t help, and in overtime, the Cardianls couldn’t get a drive going. They were even so desperate to move the chains they went for a 4th-and-2 at their own 18, which would have set the Panthers up for a game-winning chipshot if they didn’t get it.

They converted, but the reason that’s a big gamble is you’re still not guaranteed to move the ball any deeper and might end up punting it back anyway. That’s exactly what happened too. Between a delay of game penalty and sack of Kyler Murray on third down, the Cardinals ended up punting from their own 4 after another penalty on top of that. By the time the Panthers got the ball for the second time in overtime, they were at midfield and it only took one Chuba Hubbard run for 28 yards to get in field goal range, then he just ended it with a 21-yard touchdown run to win 36-30.

I don’t know if Bryce Young will ever be good, but I do know that Kyler Murray just missed the playoffs for the fifth time in six years in Arizona, and no one seems to care about that. He’s reaching that Sam Bradford level of “no one cares” for a No. 1 overall pick.

Browns at Bengals: Should Have Been Jameis All Along

As it turns out, Jameis Winston had some type of injury that kept him out of action this week. It’s a shame because I think the Browns could have won this game with him taking on that defense instead of a minimal passing game from Dorian Thompson-Robinson, who took 5 sacks and threw 2 picks while leading the offense to 6 points on 10 drives. That will help the stats for the Cincinnati defense this year.

You could tell early that it wouldn’t be Cleveland’s day when D’Onta Foreman fumbled at the 1-yard line to start the game instead of taking a 7-0 lead. The Bengals were stuck on 17 points for a while, and Joe Burrow even fumbled on a strip-sack from the Cleveland 1 late in the fourth quarter when he was trying to extend his streak of games with 3 touchdown passes.

That’s why I criticize Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts for taking the easy option on the Tush Push instead of being asked to make a throw down there in a confined space. You never know what might happen, but Burrow didn’t even get a pass off here. I’m not saying the sneak isn’t the percentage play, but it’s not something we should be giving excessive credit to for the quarterback.

But Burrow got the ball back and extended his streak anyway after Myles Garrett jumped offside and Burrow went hunting for that streak on a deep throw to Ja’Marr Chase, who came down with the touchdown to make it 24-6.

But it’s all for naught if the Broncos come into Cincinnati next week and win in a de-facto playoff game. That’s going to be the biggest Cincinnati game of the last two seasons.

49ers at Dolphins: From Losing to the Chiefs in the Playoffs to 6-8 Starts

The 49ers were eliminated from the playoffs before this one kicked off in the late window. While I was watching it on RedZone and the 49ers were trailing 19-10, it hit me seeing these teams with 6-8 records after they were both in the playoffs as two of the teams the Chiefs beat that had better than +100 point differentials in 2023. What a difference a year makes for these motion merchants.

I also find myself again scoffing at the injury excuses for the 49ers, who lost again here , when you still see a roster with Brock Purdy, George Kittle, Deebo Samuel, Jauan Jennings, Leonard Floyd, Nick Bosa, Dre Greenlaw, Fred Warner, etc. You really need more than that to not lose by 12 points to the paper tiger Dolphins?

But I digress. Jake Moody being a terrible kicker is one major roster flaw as he missed a 41-yard kick in this game that wasted a third quarter drive. But late in a 22-17 game, it was pressure on Purdy that led to a bad interception and the Dolphins put it away with a long Achane touchdown run they didn’t necessarily need as the game is over if he goes down at any point inside the 40.

But hey, run it up and celebrate something as the Dolphins (7-8) are technically not eliminated yet. It’s the 49ers who are toast.

Titans at Colts: The Almost Epic Comeback of the Year  

It was only two years ago when the Colts blew a 33-0 lead to the Vikings. This time, they were up 38-7 on the Titans with 6:50 to go in the third quarter thanks to some huge touchdown runs by Jonathan Taylor, who secured the ball this week. But the Titans marched on three straight touchdown drives behind Mason Rudolph, and this was suddenly a game again at 38-30 with 2:53 left. The Titans converted a pair of 2-point conversions.

The Colts only threw 10 passes at this point, but Anthony Richardson did at least deliver an accurate throw on his 11th attempt to convert a 3rd-and-8 at the 2-minute warning, or else we might have seen a real attempt at this 31-point comeback, a true rarity in NFL history.

But by the time the Titans got the ball back, there were just 3 seconds left and they were 89 yards away from the end zone while still needing another conversion just to force overtime. Rudolph threw one of the most charitable interceptions you’ll ever see to finally end it. But what a weird finish and game overall.

The Colts (7-8) are still kicking and have a real shot at finishing 9-8 again while still missing the playoffs.

Giants at Falcons: Penix Will Always Remember His First

I hope someone pulled rookie quarterback Michael Penix Jr. aside after his first NFL start and win and reminded him they won’t all be this easy. You can’t count on your defense intercepting two passes for touchdowns from a quarterback like Drew Lock every week. Those returns were even longer than any offensive play the Falcons had as their longest gain was 22 yards.

But it was a 34-7 blowout, Penix didn’t take any sacks, his first interception was 100% on Kyle Pitts, and you can’t really argue with the results. But we’ll see how he does against Jayden Daniels next Sunday night as the Falcons now control their own destiny for the NFC South again.

Jaguars at Raiders: Vegas Wins (Sorta?)

The Raiders ended their 10-game losing streak with a rare comeback win against exactly the caliber of team you’d expect them to finally beat in the Jaguars. It was watching a coach (Antonio Pierce) with a 1-10 record at 4QC attempts against a quarterback (Mac Jones) with a 3-15 record in such games, so something had to give.

In the end, it was the Raiders getting the win, but is it really a win when you give the Giants (2-13) a clear path to the No. 1 pick in the draft now? Not that there’s a huge quarterback prize waiting for them in April if the draft experts are to be trusted, but the Raiders probably aren’t going to control the top of the draft now.

Next week: Five game days from Wednesday-Monday. I think we’re peaking early again on Christmas, and I also think it’s going to be the Chiefs and Ravens winning again like Saturday. Seahawks-Bears is Thursday night, so we’ll see if the Bears can ever end this losing streak before 2025. The Saturday triple-header truly looks like a bad waste of my time on the couch, but I guess Broncos-Bengals is the highlight in the middle. That doesn’t leave much for Sunday, but Packers-Vikings is a good one, and SNF is Falcons-Commanders, which takes on new intrigue of course. Lions will try to destroy the 49ers on MNF to end the week in an NFC Championship Game rematch.

2024 NFL Stat Oddity: Week 10

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

Week 10 in the NFL was almost an overcorrection to last week when favorites dominated the slate from start to finish. In Week 10, favorites were just 3-10 ATS with MNF pending.

But at the end of the day, the teams with the great records were largely winning by the skin of their teeth. It started Thursday night when the Ravens came back from a 21-7 deficit to beat the Bengals in a 35-34 game that came down to a 2-point conversion (and the refs turning a blind eye to Baltimore penalties on it).

Then Sunday brought some even wilder results with the Chiefs (trailed 14-3) and Lions (trailed 23-7) needing field goals to go their way at the end to improve to 17-1 collectively. The Steelers also had a 10-point comeback in the second half to beat the Commanders on the road, and even Kyle Shanahan’s 49ers had a comeback and game-winning field goal in Tampa Bay.

In all, 8-of-13 games had a comeback opportunity and there were seven game-winning drives in Week 10. That made up for the horrible late-afternoon slate that had no drama whatsoever.

It was a good build-up for Week 11, which could be the most crucial week of the 2024 regular season.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Broncos at Chiefs: 8-and-One Hell of a Block to Start 9-0

I guess the Chiefs just hate playing at 1:00 p.m. ET as their last such game was on Christmas last year (a Monday), which was their last loss against the Raiders. But the Chiefs are just showing off now. They have won so many games in a variety of ways in the Patrick Mahomes era, but Sunday’s 16-14 escape over Denver is a new achievement unlocked.

This was not your typical Kansas City letdown game in that there wasn’t a single turnover by either team. No obligatory fumble. No interceptions, unlucky bounce or not, from Patrick Mahomes. It wasn’t a penalty fest either with 9 total for 45 yards.

This was going to be Kansas City’s first loss in 15 games because the Broncos were just a little better on third down against the best third down offense in 2024. The Chiefs delivered some huge plays on that money down, but again, the Broncos were just a little better at converting and forcing pressure on Mahomes to end drives short of the end zone. Bo Nix threw both of his touchdowns on third downs in the second quarter to take a 14-3 lead as he wasn’t phased by Steve Spagnuolo’s defense in his first game against them. That division familiarity with good coaching helps.

But again, there was just enough pressure getting to Mahomes, who took 4 sacks, on money downs that the Chiefs were limited to 16 points. They had a couple of big fourth-down conversions, but they rightfully settled for a 20-yard field goal to take a 16-14 lead with 5:57 left.

In that situation, you don’t expect to never see the ball again, but that’s what happened thanks to Harrison Butker’s kickoff landing short of the kicking zone, which is a penalty that puts the ball at the 40 now. You would think of all weeks, where over 74 million Americans voted for a male rapist over a qualified woman, that Butker would be on point with everything.

Normally, you expect the Chiefs to make the big stops on defense, but it didn’t happen this time. They gave up a trio of third-down conversions, and the last one from Nix to Sutton for 13 yards on 3rd-and-6 should have been the dagger with the Chiefs out of timeouts. You run the clock down and kick the short field goal to win 17-16. Simples.

The Broncos appeared to do it right, and they were going to end the Kansas City winning streak. It was in the bag. But that’s when kicker Wil Lutz was shocked to see Leo Chenal power through the line to block the kick to win the game for Kansas City:

Epic finish, and Chenal was also the player who blocked a San Francisco extra point in the fourth quarter of the Super Bowl to keep it 16-13. So, we can say this is the luckiest win yet for the Chiefs during the 15-game winning streak as they needed to block a kick that has a solid 94% success rate in the NFL.

We can definitely say that. But to say only the Chiefs win like that or that this makes Mahomes the luckiest quarterback ever, well that’s just some bullshit.

First, this was the second blocked 35-yard field goal on Sunday alone. The Saints blocked Atlanta’s 35-yard field goal before halftime in a game Atlanta lost 20-17, but not as many people were following that one. Blocking kicks this short is certainly rare, but again, we just saw one in the same window of games and I mentioned the player who did it (Chenal) also blocked an extra point (35-yard kick) in February’s Super Bowl.

Also, a block is never as lucky as an opposing kicker flat out missing a short kick. Let’s at least make sure we’re crediting Chenal for what he did here.

This is just the fourth time since 1994 where a team blocked a field goal of 35 yards or shorter in the final 2:00 of the fourth quarter in a game that was tied or a team trailed by 1-2 points:

  • 11/7/1999: Down 14-13, Green Bay’s Ryan Longwell’s 28-yard field goal was blocked in a 14-13 loss to the Bears in the closing seconds, the closest example to Lutz vs. Chiefs.
  • 10/19/2003: Tied at 13, Miami’s Olindo Mare’s 35-yard field goal was blocked at the 2-minute warning in what became a 19-13 overtime win for New England.
  • 11/5/2006: Tied at 19, Dallas’ Mike Vanderjagt’s 35-yard field goal was blocked and returned 30 yards by Sean Taylor, and thanks to a facemask penalty on the return, it set up Washington for a 47-yard game-winning field goal as an untimed down in a 22-19 final.

There also were a few games in 1995-2005 where a short kick was blocked in overtime. But if you were in overtime in those years, the game just continued until there was a winner or tie. It wasn’t as do-or-die as the Denver situation Sunday.

So, it’s absolutely a rare finish, but the funniest outcome is that distance (35 yards) instantly reminded me of the Olindo Mare game I’ve tweeted about several times since I joined Twitter in 2011.

https://twitter.com/ScottKacsmar/status/130737154736394240

Not only did the 2003 Patriots block a 35-yard field goal by Olindo Mare with 2:00 left in a tied game, but Mare missed a 35-yard field goal on his own to start overtime. Back then, that’s game over, so that miss is the only reason the Patriots have a record 21-game winning streak to their name. That was Game #3 in the streak, and the misses allowed Tom Brady to throw an 82-yard touchdown pass to Troy Brown, the fourth-longest touchdown pass of his career.

That Mare double whammy for the 2003 Dolphins against New England is the only game in the 21st century NFL where a kicker missed two FGs of 35 yards or shorter in the clutch.

So, spare me the “only the Chiefs and Mahomes” rhetoric with this one. Brady still has the LOAT title locked up. But hopefully this close call will have the Chiefs prepared even better for their huge trip to Buffalo in what could be the Game of the Year in the AFC.

Lions at Texans: Goofed Around with 5 Picks and Won Anyway

In the battle of a top pass offense and pass defense, the defense kind of won, but the Lions somehow still won the game despite Jared Goff throwing 5 interceptions on the road. Goff had been completing over 83% of his passes for the last 6 weeks, but he was just 15-of-30 in this game against a Houston defense that has forced some crazy numbers this year for Josh Allen and Anthony Richardson.

But Goff’s pick parade had the Lions in a 23-7 hole at halftime with C.J. Stroud looking stellar without Nico Collins and Stefon Diggs. Unfortunately, the Texans repeated a lot of their sins when they nearly blew a big lead against Buffalo. Stroud started turning the ball over a couple of times too, and the Texans never scored in the second half.

Oh, there were chances. But Joe Mixon (25 carries for 46 yards) was stuffed all night, and Stroud didn’t finish the job. I think you have to seriously question the Texans trying a 58-yard field goal in a tied game with 1:51 left. It was 4th-and-4 at the time. The Texans already won that Buffalo game with a 59-yard field goal by Ka’imi Fairbairn, so that might have poisoned their thinking process on this one.

But that was not the same situation. That was at the end of regulation. If Fairbairn missed that kick, the game would just go to overtime. If he missed this one, which he did badly, the Lions got the ball at the Detroit 48 and were in business with 1:51 left as they did. There’s also the added benefit of going for it, converting, and possibly running out the clock to make the field goal the last play. That’s why I think Houston likely errored in not going for that one. A past win’s unlikely success potentially leading to a future loss.

The Lions got a little conservative on their ensuing drive too, and they even willingly kicked it on third down instead of trying to gain a few more yards for Jake Bates, who just narrowly made a kick from 58 yards to tie the game with 5:01 left. That one went to the right. This time, Bates was narrowly inside the uprights to the left as time expired on a 52-yard game-winning field goal, shocking the Texans in a 26-23 final.

https://twitter.com/Sandman7773/status/1855832515463757928

That’s about as close as it gets. Like the Chiefs, maybe the Lions are just the chosen team this year. You have to go back to that crazy Cowboys-Bills game in Buffalo on MNF in 2007 to find the last time a road team won after throwing five picks. The Cowboys recovered a late onside kick in that one to pull it off. The Lions were less dire than that, a real indictment on how poorly the Texans played offensively after halftime.

I think it’s safe to say neither C.J. Stroud nor Jared Goff will be winning MVP after this game, but it sure was an entertaining and dramatic mess I’d watch over most games this season.

Steelers at Commanders: In Russ We Trust

This was the game I was most interested in watching Sunday, and for the most part, it delivered with a 28-27 final. But despite all those points, I wouldn’t say the offenses and quarterbacks played that great. In fact, both quarterbacks completed 50% of their passes for about 200 yards and 3 sacks each.

But it was Russell Wilson pushing the ball down the field to his wideouts that made the difference as George Pickens had a great touchdown catch (among other highlights), and it was Mike Williams who delivered in his team debut with the 32-yard touchdown with 2:22 left to put the Steelers ahead for good.

Wilson just lives for those moments, and he might have had the go-ahead drive earlier had Jaylen Warren not fumbled at the 1-yard line. But it’s a tough loss for Washington, which led 24-14 in the third quarter. But the Commanders were just off on some throws by Jayden Daniels, who wasn’t as sharp as his reputation, and his receivers also just dropped some easy ones as there were plays to be had against the Pittsburgh defense.

But the outcome could have absolutely been different had old tight end Zach Ertz been better on a 4th-and-9 at midfield as Washington tried to drive for a winning field goal. Ertz cut the route off a yard too short of the marker, his initial forward progress was good for a first down, but he went backwards on his own, his knee went down before he was touched, and he didn’t get a good extension to pick up that last yard. So, the result was a turnover on downs even if it was really close, and had they ruled it a first down initially, it probably would have stood. But Ertz needs to be a little better there.

Washington still had every timeout left, so the game wasn’t over. But the Steelers sent their offense back out there on 4th-and-1 at the Washington 49 with the likely intention of trying to draw the Commanders offsides instead of actually going for it with 1:02 left. Shockingly, the Commanders bit hard for it quickly and that was enough to move the chains with the neutral zone infraction penalty. Game over.

But that’s the kind of game where you are happy to have someone like Russell Wilson, who lives for those moments, instead of someone like Justin Fields, who shrinks in them. Now we’ll see if the Steelers (7-2) can continue their upset streak against the Ravens at home next week in a very big game in the rivalry.

Vikings at Jaguars: Sam Darnold vs. Mac Jones in Crunch Time Is Pure Hell

A matchup between Sam Darnold and Mac Jones at quarterback is just wrong. It was bad in 2021, and it was even worse Sunday. Darnold couldn’t stop throwing picks early into the end zone, but the good news is the Vikings wised up in time to not let him do it again in the fourth quarter. They just ran the ball and kicked a 34-yard field goal to take a 9-7 lead with 7:14 left.

That’s usually not good enough to hold up in this league, but it is when Mac Jones is filling in for Trevor Lawrence on the other side. Jones had the game’s only touchdown run from 1 yard out, but that would be Jacksonville’s only score in the game as we were reminded of just how brutal Jones is in crunch time.

In the last half of this quarter, the Jaguars had the ball three times, and they ended each with a Jones turnover, including a fumbled snap and two picks before the Vikings ran out the clock in an ugly 12-7 win that could be a sign of more things to come for Darnold this season.

Christ, what a matchup. After the game, Darnold is now 4-17 (.190) at fourth-quarter comeback opportunities in his career while Jones is 2-14 (.125). Two of the worst to ever do it.

But any time I see a quarterback, and this is rare, turn it over three times in one quarter in these situations, I think about the fact that Peyton Manning went seven seasons with just 3 turnovers in losses in 4QC/GWD situations. He threw a Hail Mary interception against the 2003 Jaguars and 2007 Chargers (after Adam Vinatieri missed a 29-yard field goal), and he had a strip-sack against the undefeated Patriots in 2007. That’s it. Then, of course, the Tracy Porter pick-six happened in Super Bowl XLIV, but people acted like Manning always did that when it just wasn’t true.

But Mac Jones? He always does stuff like this. That part is true.

Bills at Colts: Buffalo Glad to Face Quarterback with No Future in Indy

It must have sucked for the rest of the Colts to play well enough to beat Buffalo, but Joe Flacco had other ideas. Not only did he start the game with a brutal pick-six, but he finished with three picks, a strip-sack, and he took a sack on a fourth down near the red zone where the Colts probably should have just taken the field goal in a 20-13 game.

Instead, they lost 30-20, and that’s with a garbage-time touchdown at the end. Just a miserable outing for Flacco, who I initially supported for starting by benching Anthony Richardson. But if these last two games are the best he can muster, they might as well go back to Richardson and see what he has.

Josh Allen had his first multi-interception game of the season, but it didn’t even matter since he still made enough big plays that Flacco couldn’t match on the other side.

It’s not the ideal performance for Buffalo a week before the Kansas City game, but it showed they can create a bunch of turnovers, which could give them a leg up in that one.

49ers at Buccaneers: Stop Drafting Kickers High

Christian McCaffrey made his 2024 debut for the 49ers, but he didn’t find the end zone, and his best contributions were in the passing game with 6 catches for 68 yards. But I’m more interested in the return of my San Francisco whipping boy, kicker Jake Moody.

Moody ultimately won this game, 23-20, with a 44-yard field goal as time expired, but if he did his job better earlier, then it wouldn’t have come down to that. Moody was 3-of-6 on field goals in this game, missing wide from 49, 50, and 44 yards. With the way kickers are crushing the ball this season from deeper distances than that, this simply isn’t good enough for any kicker, let alone one the team infamously used the 99th pick in the third round on in 2023.

I just don’t see a kicker like this lasting long in San Francisco. Fortunately, they had enough weapons to come back and win the game, but this was very close to yet another blown lead as Baker Mayfield had some incredible plays late in the fourth quarter to tie it.

https://twitter.com/NFL/status/1855713396089565354

That’s Nick Bosa getting a stiff arm from Baker, though one has to wonder if this was some Trump voter solidarity, because since when does Bosa not take a quarterback down there? Weird play.

It’s the kind of game where you wonder how much of a difference Mike Evans would have made for the Bucs, who had to settle for a tying field goal, which set up the 49ers’ shot for redemption for Moody on the final snap.

But let’s also add Ricky Pearsall to the list of impressive rookie wideouts in this class. He had a 47-yard touchdown and was big on the game-winning drive. The 49ers only had five players get a target in this game, but even without Brandon Aiyuk being one of them, it’s an impressive group.

Too bad the most talented roster in the league has one of the worst kickers.

Eagles at Cowboys: The Sun Going Down on Jerry World Early This Year

The Cowboys got a boost defensively from the return of Micah Parsons, but their offense totally wasted it with Cooper Rush looking like his body was crippled by arthritis. What happened to the quarterback who threw for over 300 yards in some past starts and had game-winning drives in this offense? He was awful on Sunday, and Trey Lance isn’t a great option going forward. But they should make that change if Dak Prescott is getting surgery Monday to end his season.

But everyone’s season in Dallas is technically over at 3-6. Jalen Hurts turned it over twice and took 5 sacks, and the Cowboys still lost 34-6 at home. That’s what happens when your quarterback just loses the ball like a feeble old man would, and speaking of feeble old men, Ezekiel Elliott coughed one up into the end zone too. Oh, even the sun betrayed Dallas again as CeeDee Lamb couldn’t locate a ball because the sun blinded him.

The Cowboys finished 17-of-29 for 66 yards with a pick and 3 sacks taken. What a product, Jerry.

Titans at Chargers: Our Consistent Chargers

With these teams like the Bengals, you don’t know if they’re going to score and give up 7 points or 35 points. At least the Chargers are consistent as hell this season. They’re going to score 17-to-27 points, and they still haven’t allowed anyone but Pittsburgh to score 20 points on them.

They can run the ball, Justin Herbert makes good decisions, and they just win fairly low-drama games. It happened again against the Titans, who got Will Levis back but still struggled to score even if he wasn’t a turnover machine this week.

Instead, that defense had Levis feeling constipated as he took 7 sacks but only lost 18 yards on those plays. I had to look it up, and Rick Mirer for the 1996 Seahawks is the only other quarterback to take 7 sacks and not lose at least 25 yards in a game on record. Mirer also had 7 sacks for 18 yards lost against the Chiefs. You never want to be compared to Mirer.

Meanwhile, Herbert only had to throw 18 passes, completed 14 of them for 164 yards, ran for a touchdown, and didn’t take a sack. Finally, he’s enjoying the “easy” wins the NFL has to offer from time to time.

Also, I despise Calvin Ridley. He’s going on the permanent ban list after jacking up my parlay where he’d hit his under in receptions (4.5) in a Chargers’ win. He just had to catch his fifth pass for his second touchdown of the day with 49 seconds left to make it a 27-17 final.

But that’s also the first time this season the Chargers had a game go over 39.5 points, so there’s that streak over with.

https://twitter.com/ScottKacsmar/status/1855893726268166575

Falcons at Saints: That Younghoe Not Coo

Everything was pointing against the Saints this week, but that was one of my upset picks as I know division games are weird, and the Falcons really struggled to put the ball in the end zone against the Saints earlier this year.

It happened again, and the Saints didn’t help them out with a pair of return touchdowns this time. Instead, they got two surprise touchdowns to Marquez Valdes-Scantling, who only signed recently after all their wide receiver injuries.

But the Saints didn’t do a good job of finishing this game, a familiar scene for them. They punted on 5-of-6 drives after halftime, but the Falcons couldn’t capitalize as kicker Younghoe Koo ended up missing three field goals, including a 46-yard field goal that hit the upright with 6:39 left. It would have tied the game at 20.

But Kirk Cousins was later picked by Tyrann Mathieu, and making it even worse was that he gave up the 2-minute warning in the process (clock at 1:59 after pick). The Falcons had all three timeouts to get the ball back after the defense did its part with a three-and-out, but that pick was costly, and Derek Carr saved the Falcons a lot of time with an incomplete pass on third down.

So, Cousins had one more shot from his 14 with 1:35 left. But an inefficient drive took too long, and Cousins ended up throwing short of the sticks on the last play, which was no man’s land, but it was also a situation where he needed to do something different than this:

https://twitter.com/GAFollowers/status/1855717819284857026

I know he couldn’t spike it since it was 4th down, but they got to get something more to the sideline to convert and take a shot at the long field goal. But given the way Koo’s day went, he probably would have missed that too.

At least the Saints have ended one of the most brutal 7-game losing streaks following a historic start.

Jets at Cardinals: Cooked

It’s hard to say what the nadir is for this Jets’ season as we thought losing to the Broncos in 10-9 game and losing to the Patriots would be pretty damn low. But they were dominated on both sides of the ball in Arizona in a 31-6 loss where you have to wonder if Aaron Rodgers doesn’t just retire after this mess of a season.

But this game had just 13 total possessions, and I’m not sure I’ve ever seen a game with a number so low that was such a blowout at 31-6. Usually you see a very close game with both teams scoring, but the Jets had two field goals, two punts, a lost fumble, and they turned it over on downs in the fourth quarter when the game was way out of reach.

The Cardinals only had five full possessions deep into the third quarter, and they scored 4 touchdowns and a field goal on them. I guess we have to acknowledge that the Cardinals are decent this season. Murray was 22-of-24 for 266 yards while rushing for a pair of touchdowns as only he can with his unique “scooting” style of runs.

Meanwhile, Rodgers looks every bit his age. He finished the game 6/13 for 31 yards on his targets to Davante Adams.

Patriots at Bears: They Are Who We Thought They Were

How are we in Week 10 and Caleb Williams looks like the worst rookie quarterback now? What exactly did they teach him during the bye week? Anyone can point to the opponent difficulty for the 3-game winning streak against the Rams/Panthers/Jaguars, but it’s not like Commanders/Cardinals/Patriots are a murderer’s row of defenses in 2024.

He took 9 sacks in this game. Isn’t that supposed to be what Drake Maye is facing on the other side? Maye was only sacked once and it didn’t lose any yards. He also threw for 64 more yards on 5 fewer passes than Williams, and he continues to be a more productive runner.

But what a bummer of a performance at home as the Bears were 1-of-14 on third down. That’s how you manage just a single field goal on 11 drives. The Bears didn’t have an official turnover in this game, but that might have been more fun than watching them punt 8 times in a 19-3 loss.

Giants at Panthers: Germany Can Keep Daniel Jones

With each week we should get closer and closer to not having to see Daniel Jones in a Giants uniform, especially not in an island game. I slept thru most of this one, but I saw him run for a touchdown to make things interesting in the fourth quarter before both backs turned it over. That includes Tyrone Tracy deflecting the ball to the defense in the red zone of a 17-14 game.

Then Tracy fumbled in overtime too, which makes you wonder if he’s just had enough of Jones’ shit and wants him out of town too. The Panthers were gifted a game-winning drive by just running it 3 times for 5 yards before a 36-yard field goal won the game 20-17 in overtime. That’s a little 2-game winning streak for Dave Canales’ team now.

New York (via New Jersey) football is truly the worst these days. But I’m not sure how they expect to grow the game in Germany when we’re clearly not sending our best even if they turn out to be low-scoring games that are close at the end like Colts-Patriots was last year.

But we really need to stop unleashing Daniel Jones on millions of people who just want to watch a good game.

Next week: Week 11 might be as good as it gets this regular season. Granted, most of the games look like shit on paper, but just think about the highlights. Commanders at Eagles for the first time this year on Thursday night for control of the NFC East. Ravens at Steelers is a monster game in the AFC/AFC North at 1:00 p.m. Chiefs-Bills is the huge 4:25 showdown. Even Bengals-Chargers on SNF could be pretty good and has importance in the wild card race. Not exactly sure which angle I want to write about this week, but I’ll have something about these games.  

NFL 2024 Week 9 Predictions: Groin Groans Edition

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

Even with an extra hour this weekend, I’m still very late in getting these NFL Week 9 picks ready. It’s been a long week, and with the election this Tuesday, it could be even tougher to stay productive with time (i.e. not doomscrolling and blocking pro-fascist shitbirds) this week.

But when I look at the Week 9 schedule, I think what a great time this was for Lions-Packers, what should have been the Game of the Week. Maybe it will get there, but I’m bummed out that Jordan Love has a groin injury, Josh Jacobs has an ankle injury, and they’re going to try playing in what could be a rain game. Doesn’t sound ideal at all if you ask me.

But I’m focused on a lot of streaks this week as I’ve already written about and will note below.

This Week’s Articles

NFL Week 9 Predictions

The Jets finally came through for me, and I certainly called my shot on this game:

https://x.com/ScottKacsmar/status/1852196245957132793

Pats-Titans: Oof. That’s what you call a 1 p.m. Sunday game. I think the Patriots have probably played better football, but I’m going Titans just because I’m not sure where they get another win right now, and I don’t see them going 1-16.

Saints-Panthers: Double oof. Spread is a bit high for a road favorite in a divisional game who hasn’t won a game since Week 2 and is only just getting Derek Carr back, but that speaks volumes about how bad the Panthers are on both sides of the ball right now. Saints end their losing streak here.

Broncos-Ravens: One of the most interesting games this week as I could see the Broncos winning by 1-7 points or losing by 1-24 points. No typos. Just depends which version of Bo Nix shows up, but I’m going to go with the Denver cover in a loss. Maybe a 24-16 game that looks respectable for them on the road.

Raiders-Bengals: Joe Burrow is just 5-5 SU in games where he’s a touchdown favorite, which is an abysmal record. I think the Raiders can keep it close. Backdoor cover against the Chiefs last week.

Chargers-Browns: Big expectations for a fun game between Herbert and Jameis. I could see both teams scoring 20+, but don’t expect Jameis to get away with a game-ending pick in back-to-back weeks. I’ll take the Chargers to win.

Cowboys-Falcons: Seems like two teams headed in opposite directions and the Falcons should win. But that’s why I’m going to zag on this one and think Dallas shows up when the lights aren’t bright and they can score enough this week on the road to get a late win. Minimal pass rush for Dak Prescott to worry about.

Dolphins-Bills: I never trust Miami in games like this. Josh Allen owns them and the Bills are getting back to dominating the scoreboard with the huge KC game coming soon.

Commanders-Giants; This first meeting was when the Commanders went 7-for-7 at scoring a FG on every drive. I think they move the ball well again and find the end zone a few times in this one. Daniel Jones has to be running out of chances to start games for this team.

Bears-Cardinals: Bears lost last week on a Hail Mary while the Cardinals came back from a 9-point deficit to win on the last play. Another one where I think momentum is flipped, but I’m still taking the road underdog to win as I think the Cardinals struggle to run so freely against that defense, and Caleb Williams will play better than he did last week. Arizona’s just not very trustworthy right now to stack wins.

Jaguars-Eagles: Jags are playing better but I think the Eagles looked great last week and should have few problems against this defense.

Rams-Seahawks: Could be close, but it’s as simple as the Seahawks are down DK Metcalf and the Rams have their top 2 WRs back healthy. Or at least healthy enough to play the game. Allegedly.

Lions-Packers: Teased it above but I’m going to go Lions in the first matchup. Think the Packers can beat them in Detroit though like they did last season when the road team won both matchups. Just bad timing here with Love’s groin and the way the Lions are hot offensively. Plus I assume Tom Brady is calling this game for FOX and it seems like all of his games see the favorite run away with things.

Colts-Vikings: No, I do not see the Colts playing an 11th-straight game decided by 1-6 points to tie the NFL record set by the 2010-11 Cowboys. I also don’t think they hand Minnesota a 3rd-straight loss, and that’s why I think Vikings rebound and win by 7+. Of course, this is a rematch of the game that saw a 33-0 comeback by Minnesota two years ago, but I think it’s more likely the Vikings win this one by 33 points this time than need such a huge comeback.

Bucs-Chiefs: The Chiefs win but don’t cover. What’s new? I think it’s more interesting if Mike Evans and Chris Godwin were healthy, but you have to basically be the Chiefs to lose your top two receivers and still figure things out to win games. But I do think Baker Mayfield has a shot to at least push the Chiefs into a higher-scoring game than they’re used with 28 straight games finishing under 51.5 points, and they haven’t scored more than 28 points in KC (Arrowhead) since Week 7 last year.