2018 NFL Predictions

In last year’s NFL predictions, I invoked my inner Nihilist Arby’s and expected the 2017 season to be an inevitable death march towards another New England Super Bowl win. At least we didn’t have to worry about a 19-0 season as some predicted, because the Chiefs, the team I kept saying was best equipped to knock off the Pats, won in Foxboro on opening night. That gave fans some hope, but the alarming number of major injuries, especially at quarterback, led to a pretty disappointing season where fourth-quarter comebacks were way down. There were only 54 4QC wins after there were 68 to 73 in every season from 2012 to 2016. The games just weren’t as competitive or interesting last season.

It wasn’t the same to watch the Colts without Andrew Luck, the Packers without Aaron Rodgers, or the Giants without Odell Beckham Jr. Hell, I even missed the annual Ryan Tannehill Breakout Watch in Miami. Ezekiel Elliott was suspended for six games in Dallas. The 49ers didn’t really matter until the Jimmy Garoppolo trade happened. It wasn’t very fun to watch Hue Jackson and DeShone Kizer kill Cleveland’s chances of covering the spread each week, let alone win a game. Houston was finally an exciting team to watch again, but Deshaun Watson was lost for the season just 6.5 games into a thrilling rookie campaign that was going to shatter records.

That was the low point for me last November, which led to me writing about the Seven-Year Itch. Seven seasons covering the NFL full time, maybe I was starting to burn out and lost some interest. But then I took to betting on games and that reinvigorated my interest in a major way. A lot of early success also helped, but just like the NFL, success is hard to sustain.

Some of my predictions are a little too on the nose, but I purposely do it for fun. Sometimes my more specific ones end up on the money too, because I feel like the NFL runs in familiar narratives and sometimes I can see them coming months in advance. Some of my best predictions for the playoffs come later in the season, such as this one from November last year:

I did not see Nick Foles Super Bowl MVP coming though. I think the injuries led way to some teams making playoff pushes after being out of the tournament for a long time. The Jaguars, Rams, Bills, and Titans all ended playoff droughts of 8+ seasons. (I only have two of those teams returning to the tournament in 2018.) This is also how you end up with a season where Case Keenum is No. 1 in passing DVOA and Foles is the reigning Super Bowl MVP. I also think the injuries to so many key players had a big impact on passing numbers declining a bit after several years of constantly setting new benchmarks across the league. I expect to see those numbers go back up this year.

Scoring in general may go up a bit if the NFL doesn’t get a good grasp on its new helmet rule, or the flags where a routine sack is now roughing the passer. Just think of how many drives can continue with an automatic first down that otherwise would have ended in the past. We also may see more catches ruled a catch (Jesse James Rule), though that’s a necessary change that’s a few years overdue. I’ll wait and see on how the refs, which include four new officials, adjust to all these changes, but I’m leaning towards it making defense more difficult. Remember, the last game we watched, Super Bowl 52, featured a record amount of yardage (1,151 yards). The game is changing.

There are plenty of interesting storylines to follow again, but I think all the quarterback movement is what makes 2018 so compelling. Many teams either upgraded or at least made their offense more interesting this season. We’ll get to see rookie Sam Darnold in Week 1 with the Jets. Maybe we’ll see Baker Mayfield and Josh Rosen later this season, but at least Tyrod Taylor and Sam Bradford are upgrades to what Cleveland and Arizona fielded last year. Rodgers, Luck, and Tannehill are back. Can Garoppolo and Watson possibly deliver such amazing numbers in a full season? All that connected movement with Kirk Cousins to Minnesota, Keenum to Denver, Alex Smith to Washington, and Patrick Mahomes taking over in Kansas City makes all four of those offenses more interesting in 2018. That’s a dozen teams right there, and we still have the old guard (Brady, Brees, Ben, Rivers, Eli), the middle aged (Ryan, Flacco, Stafford, Cam, Dalton, Wilson), the strangely similar Bortles and Carr, Year 4 for Winston/Mariota, and Year 3 for the 2016 class (Goff, Wentz, Dak). I just named the whole league except Buffalo and Mitchell Trubisky, but at least I’m excited to see the latter this season. The other makes me want to Eat Arby’s until the sweet, cold embrace of death engulfs me.

Fortunately, we’ve made it to opening night with the biggest injury losses only including Hunter Henry, Jason Verrett, Jake Ryan, Marqise Lee, Jerick McKinnon, Derrius Guice, and A.Q. Shipley. Travis Frederick’s non-football illness is also worth mentioning. Injuries are inevitable, but at least the season is starting with many of the key guys ready to go.

I think 2018 will be a much more competitive (and ultimately better) season than 2017. So let’s get into the predictions. I started with a different division just because I was sick of always starting this thing with New England up first.


1. Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4)

Amazon does a great “All or Nothing” series in following an NFL team through the season. The 2018 Steelers feel like an All or Nothing team to me. This is either the year where this team gets over the hump to reach a Super Bowl (doesn’t necessarily mean they win it), or it’s all going to fall apart in spectacular fashion. The offensive-driven “Killer B” era that really started in 2014 has yet to put together a great playoff run, and this is Year 5 of that. I think the Five-Year Rule may apply here even though Mike Tomlin and Ben Roethlisberger have been together since 2007.

This team is perfect for TV since there’s always so much drama whether it’s public comments about contracts, the Roethlisberger-Todd Haley saga, Facebook Live disasters, or looking ahead to opponents. There are also on-field concerns with the stars of this team. Maybe an aging Roethlisberger finds an injury bug he can’t shake off. Maybe Antonio Brown falls off, not because of the Madden Curse, but just because his high-volume output over the last five seasons is ridiculously hard to sustain and does leave him more susceptible to injury. He had a rough training camp in staying on the practice field. At least he showed up, unlike Le’Veon Bell, who remains a holdout. Either way I think we’re going to learn the name James Conner a lot more this season, and he has always looked impressive in the brief opportunities we’ve seen him. Ultimately, I predict Bell returns in a timely manner to play, because holdouts like this almost never come to fruition when real game checks are on the line.

You know I can write the same thing about the Steelers every year and it’d be right on the money. In order to get home-field advantage, can they avoid playing down to the competition like that loss in Chicago last season? I actually think they’re going to fall to that trap again in Tampa Bay in Week 3 with Ryan Fitzpatrick starting. However, I do have a revenge tour predicted with wins over the Jaguars and Patriots that lead to the Steelers getting the No. 1 seed on a tie-breaker over the 12-4 Patriots.

Can the Steelers ever get their big three to stay on the field for a full game against New England? The past four meetings have been absurd in this regard.

  • Week 1 2015: Bell was suspended. The Patriots won 28-21.
  • Week 7 2016: Roethlisberger missed one full start due to injury in 2016, and it was the New England game. The Patriots won 27-16.
  • 2016 AFC Championship Game: Bell left in the first half with an injury after six carries. The Steelers lost 36-17.
  • Week 15 2017: Brown was injured in the first half after dropping a touchdown. It was only the second time since 2013 that he had to leave a game due to injury. The Steelers lost 27-24 after a Jesse James touchdown, that would count now (I think) in 2018, was overturned and Roethlisberger threw the worst red-zone pick of his career.

So home-field advantage likely comes down to Week 15 again, but there are plenty of other challenges along the way for the Steelers. I think they can be better equipped to handle the loss of Ryan Shazier than needing to adjust on the fly last December. This team was in major trouble when quarterbacks such as Brett Hundley, Joe Flacco (2017 version), and DeShone Kizer were lighting them up late in the season. The offense had to be about perfect to win those games, and it wasn’t perfect against a tough Jacksonville defense in January. Oh the big three still made outstanding plays and helped the Steelers become the first team in NFL history to lose at home in the playoffs after scoring more than 38 points, but you can’t expect to go anywhere with 45-42 games against Bortles.

That’s why I was surprised that the Steelers went for another wideout (James Washington) and a third-round quarterback (Mason Rudolph) over more immediate defensive help. Morgan Burnett and rookie Terrell Edmunds should help in the secondary, but I think T.J. Watt needs to be a standout in Year 2. If they can get Watt going along with Cameron Heyward for the pass rush, and Joe Haden to improve on his Pittsburgh debut, then there are high-caliber players to work with at each level in this defense.

Sometimes you don’t field your best team when you get to a Super Bowl. You get there because you’ve been good and have a lot of the right pieces in place, but things just haven’t been falling your way. Maybe this is the year the Steelers have everything fall into place, but beating New England (either in Week 15 or in January) has to happen. They can’t expect to avoid them like in 2005, 2008, and 2010. The AFC just isn’t deep enough, which is another reason why this team really needs to capitalize on a Super Bowl if this is indeed the last hurrah for Bell with Ben and Brown.

2. Baltimore Ravens (9-7)

Look, Joe Flacco was trash last season, but Baltimore was still a 4th-and-12 stop away from 10-6 and the playoffs. Then that Andy Dalton touchdown pass in Week 17 happened, the lousy tie-breakers in the NFL were applied to get Buffalo and Tennessee in, and the 9-7 Ravens were at home for the playoffs for the third year in a row.

John Harbaugh can still coach. Alex Collins broke out behind a solid offensive line that gets Marshal Yanda back. The receivers have been upgraded. The defense, which pitched three shutouts last year, still has some great players and gets Tavon Young back in a deep secondary. The special teams are usually great, and Justin Tucker might be the only kicker in the league who is the best player on his team. The problem has been Flacco, who ranked dead last in YPA last season, but he has the team around him to make the playoffs. He also should have the motivation to actually earn some of his contract now that the Ravens drafted Lamar Jackson in the first round. Jackson doesn’t look like he’ll be ready to play this year, so Flacco should have great job security for 2018. If he just plays a little better than he has, then this team is dangerous enough to compete for the Super Bowl, because Harbaugh knows how to play against the top competition in the Patriots and Steelers.

The Ravens have been right in the playoff mix late in the season the last two years, but just couldn’t keep their division rivals out of the end zone in crunch time. Don’t forget the Antonio Brown touchdown on Christmas Day in 2016, then the Boyd touchdown last year. The margin is that small in this league. On the flip side, the Ravens beat up last year on 0-16 Cleveland twice, the Packers without Rodgers, the Colts without Luck, the Texans without Watson, and the Dolphins without Tannehill (or even Jay Cutler). Sometimes the win column can be just as misleading.  But I think the 2018 schedule, especially early, favors Baltimore to have a good start and be in the mix late again.

3. Cincinnati Bengals (8-8)

You want to talk about slim margins and feeling snake-bitten? The Bengals finished 7-9 last year, but blew a 7-point lead in the final four minutes against Green Bay and Pittsburgh, losing by a field goal each time. They also gave up a late touchdown pass to Marcus Mariota in a loss in Tennessee. This team easily could have gone 10-6, and that’s even after a brutal 0-2 start that required the offensive coordinator to be fired. Sure, the Dalton touchdown pass on 4th-and-12 was a miracle play, but maybe the tables would have been reversed with Baltimore had the Bengals gotten to play the Packers and Texans with Brett Hundley and Tom Savage instead of Rodgers and Watson.

I really thought I might have the Bengals in the playoffs, but a tougher schedule has them at 8-8 for me. Still, I think there’s some great potential here with John Ross hopefully producing something after a bagel last year as a top 10 pick. Maybe Tyler Eifert actually stays healthy, but I wouldn’t hold my breath. A.J. Green is still great, the offensive line is revamped and should be much better for Andy Dalton, who had a long stretch of games (Weeks 3-13) last year with numbers quite comparable to none other than Carson Wentz in the same span. The defense, led by Geno Atkins, has some underrated players in Andrew Billings, William Jackson, and Carl Lawson.

Do I think this team is ready to win a playoff game yet? No, but I also think Marvin Lewis should have been fired many years ago. He’ll enter Year 16 with a 0-7 playoff record, a resume that is unrivaled (and unwanted) in NFL history.

4. Cleveland Browns (5-11)

Contrary to what Joe Buck said on FOX during a preseason game, the Browns do not have better Super Bowl odds than the Falcons and Jaguars this year. I see people picking the Browns to make the playoffs, and perhaps crazier things have happened, but at least the 2008 Dolphins (from 1-15 to 11-5) hired a new coach (RIP Tony Sparano) and added a pretty good quarterback (Chad Pennington). The Browns have definitely upgraded the QB position with Tyrod Taylor and No. 1 overall pick Baker Mayfield, but somehow 1-for-32 Hue Jackson is still there. He still has Gregg Williams aligning the defense in center field on third down, and now we add surly Todd Haley to the mix. It’s a coaching trio nightmare, and I don’t think this is the right group to develop what is actually a pretty respectable roster for a team coming off 0-16.

Personally, I would start Mayfield right away. I think like Myles Garrett in 2017, he was the right pick at No. 1 and will be a good one, but Taylor isn’t a bad option for now too. I’m hoping Josh Gordon is the leading receiver on this team, because he’s a special player when he’s active. But somehow I get the feeling that Jarvis Landry will find a way to get way more targets and catches. The only question is will they come with the value to warrant it? With multiple head coaches and quarterbacks in Miami, Landry produced a lot of the same results for four years, and it was not valuable to his offense, especially relative to other top-tier wide receivers. So that’s definitely something I want to look at with Cleveland this year in how they use Landry. David Njoku is also an exciting young tight end to develop, Antonio Callaway may have been a fourth-round steal, and Duke Johnson is one of the best receiving backs in the league. In fact, Johnson averaged more yards per catch (9.4) than Landry (8.8) last season. Imagine that.

So the quarterback for this team has weapons to work with, an offensive line that looks to have moved on well enough from Joe Thomas’ retirement, and the defense looks pretty solid on paper. I can see the appeal of picking Cleveland to finish around 8-8, but I just think the coaching is still going to hold this team back, and the schedule should be tough. The AFC North is a solid division and the NFC South is one of the best in the league with three playoff teams last year. I think if Tyrod remains the quarterback, then his lack of turnovers should be a godsend to a team that was hurt badly by DeShone Kizer’s turnovers (especially in the red zone and in crunch time) last year. That’s reason enough to think the Browns could play more grind-it-out games with running the ball and defense leading the way to victory.

I just think it’ll have to be a new coach in 2019 leading this team, with budding stars in Mayfield and Garrett, back to winning records in an AFC dying for change.


1. Minnesota Vikings (12-4)

My thought process on Minnesota has been simple. Mike Zimmer and his staff have gotten the best out of Teddy Bridgewater (2015), Sam Bradford (2016), and Case Keenum (2017) over the last three years. Kirk Cousins is more consistent and has more sustained success than all three of those players. He’s less likely to be fool’s gold like Keenum last year. What Cousins didn’t have in Washington was a consistent defense, running game, or a healthy squad around him. Yet he still had Washington flirting around .500 for three years in a row. If you give him one of the best rosters in the NFL to work with, then why can’t he also see a boost in play like those other Zimmer quarterbacks have had? And that could be more than enough to push this team all the way after reaching the NFC Championship Game last year.

Now my concern is that the offensive line is not a strength, and Keenum was pretty great (in the regular season at least) at making things happen under pressure. It was one of the biggest advantages to his season since he had positive DVOA under pressure (done three times by a qualified starter since 2010). Play under pressure isn’t as consistent as play without pressure, but Cousins has never been anything special under pressure. He’s more likely to take a sack or do something silly with the ball. So I would be a bit concerned that this is one area where the Vikings may actually be regressing in that the offensive line has allowed a lot of pressure over Zimmer’s tenure. But I do like Cousins as a fit here with Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen. Just a bit worried about the receiver depth should one of those players get hurt. At least Dalvin Cook returns to the backfield this year.

Defensively, they’re clearly one of the best units in the league, but again, great health last year and that’s hard to repeat. The depth at most positions doesn’t look too promising, so they have to hope all their stars have relatively healthy seasons again. We also need to see more takeaways from this defense. They only had one takeaway in the four losses last year (including none in the playoffs where the Eagles destroyed their historically great third-down defense).

I hope this prediction from March is way off:

I didn’t tweet that to say I want any of those things to happen, but as a comment on how expectations are going to be so high for Cousins this year, and things that could be totally out of his control could make this not work out the way everyone hopes. Consistently winning in the NFL is hard, but I think the Vikings made the right move with Cousins, who was briefly the highest-paid player in the league. I mean real briefly.

That may look like a bargain in a few years, but a failure to return to the playoffs in 2018 will not go over well in Minnesota. This team’s window is now.

2. Green Bay Packers (12-4)

We’ll start with the usual disclaimer: as long as Aaron Rodgers remains healthy, the Packers should be good for double-digit wins. Last season, he broke his collarbone again, so there went Green Bay’s season after eight straight trips to the playoffs.

What’s different this time around? For one, I think the schedule is very favorable, the defense should be at least mediocre under new coordinator Mike Pettine, and those two factors combined with a healthy Rodgers give the team a great shot at 12 wins for the first time since 2014. I still think Minnesota has a better roster, but at least the Packers did some free-agent spending under new GM Brian Gutekunst and added Muhammad Wilkerson and Jimmy Graham. The defensive line could be special and the secondary is loaded with young talent.

This does feel like the weakest the wideouts have been in Rodgers’ time there with Jordy Nelson gone, but maybe one of the youngsters (J’Mon Moore or Equanimeous St. Brown) can step up. Graham should also help in the red zone a lot.

I think the craziest table I put together for FOA 2018 was the way Rodgers’ YPA has dropped off in various splits since 2015 compared to his peak years of 2009-2014 when he was incredible. It’s not fair to hold anyone to not maintaining that standard, but I think he should be at least above the NFL average over the last three years when he hasn’t been. So I’m curious to see what we’ll get this year with new coordinators in town (Joe Philbin came back), a new tight end, a decent RBBC, and hopefully what is great health for his age-35 season.

3. Detroit Lions (7-9)

The Lions have flirted with 7-11 wins for the last five seasons. The final number is basically dependent on how many 4QCs Matthew Stafford leads that season. As predicted, Detroit stunk in close games last year after setting the record with eight 4QC in 2016. Even though the Lions were 9-7 again with better stats, this time it wasn’t enough for the playoffs.

So now there’s a real change with Matt Patricia taking over as head coach. Bill Belichick’s assistants have flopped after leaving him. One of the toughest things to project is just how much of an impact they had versus Belichick’s control in New England. Patricia oversaw some pretty odd defenses the last few years. The Patriots give up a lot of successful plays, but still kept the scoring down after good situational play. I think the bend-but-don’t-break style was already going on in Detroit last year, but we could see even more of it this year. I just don’t think the defense has enough studs after Darius Slay and Ezekiel Ansah to rely on yet.

Fixing the defense and running game has been a common theme in the Stafford era, but it’s going on a decade with no one able to offer a solution. They drafted Kerryon Johnson in the second round, but call me skeptical to trust any Detroit RB after the way things have gone at that position since Barry Sanders retired. The Lions haven’t had a 100-yard individual rusher since Reggie Bush on Thanksgiving in 2013. It’s not like the individual numbers matter, and the Lions have a RBBC in place with Theo Riddick and LeGarrette Blount offering different skillsets. But I just don’t see the Lions suddenly developing a strong running game behind a line that is still best suited to protect the passer.

One thing I really want to see is if Kenny Golladay can be a huge playmaker in his second year. He was cut short by injury as a rookie. I know the projection looks low at 7-9, but remember that Detroit got to sweep the Aaron Rodgers-less Packers last year, a team that often gives them fits when he’s active. He’s back now and the Bears are also better. It’s a tough division. We also know that Detroit just never shows up for the tough games. Stafford’s record as a starter in games against winning teams is now 6-52 (.103). That includes a 4-25 record under Caldwell and a 2-27 record in road games. Hey, at least Detroit beat the Vikings in Minnesota last year.

That’s the legacy that Patricia has to change, but I’m already seeing headlines where he’s discovering just how hard his job is, and the Lions had a pretty uninspiring preseason. I think it’s fair to be skeptical in Year 1 of Patricia.

4. Chicago Bears (6-10)

I did a lot of work on the Bears for FOA 2018, mostly focusing on the impact of a rookie head coach on a young quarterback and how Vic Fangio’s defense will hopefully have more takeaways (fewest picks since 2015). Also how the Bears have been the most injured team under John Fox, so hopefully better health as well. Little did I know that the team would make a huge trade for Khalil Mack right before Week 1. I don’t think it makes a big impact on the W-L record in 2018, but I like the move. Your quarterback is early into his rookie contract, so now is the time to pay an elite defender, which Mack certainly is. Just remember that Oakland’s defense was still often terrible with him, and they only had one winning record in four seasons. That’s why I said he doesn’t move the needle much by himself, but it is a good move for Chicago.

I keep saying 2019 is the year for this team to make the playoff push, because I think it’s going to take time for things to jell under rookie head coach Matt Nagy. Not only did Mack come in late, but Roquan Smith (another great move) signed his rookie deal late because of a weird dispute. With the offense, you’re asking a lot if you think this unit can improve to the level of Nagy’s Chiefs last year or what Sean McVay did for the Rams. Everyone wants to make that Nagy-Trubisky to McVay-Goff comparison, but I did the research on that and most rookie coaches, even offensive-minded ones, don’t do much with a young quarterback like Trubisky. Hell, Ken Whisenhunt barely waited before he benched Matt Leinart for Kurt Warner in 2007 (Arizona). Dennis Erickson didn’t get anything out of bust Rick Mirer. Those pairings don’t usually work out well, and McVay-Goff was such a historic improvement that you just shouldn’t expect it to repeat again.

Also, Trubisky does have a lot of room to grow. He was one of the least effective quarterbacks in the league last year with the highest failed completion rate and the worst ALEX. So Nagy may not be the best to bring out the aggression in him given his work with Alex Smith in Kansas City. But he does bring a better offensive system and this team should be able to run the ball well again. They also greatly upgraded their weapons, but let’s keep a few things in mind. Allen Robinson may very well be a one-year wonder (2015) and he’s coming back from a torn ACL. Taylor Gabriel is more of a role player (fills the Albert Wilson role for Nagy) than big contributor. Trey Burton was more of a TE3 in Philly and never had to be a TE1, but I would expect a career year. Anthony Miller, though intriguing, is a second-round rookie. It’s asking a lot for all of these guys to come together to produce a great offense right away. Like I said in the book, the Bears could finish 8-8 and still be lucky to finish 10th in the conference. But that’s why I keep saying 2019 is when Chicago should finally be back in the playoff picture.

And now with Mack to boot.


1. New England Patriots (12-4)

I don’t have the rest of the AFC East winning more than five games. The division is a foregone conclusion with this team — we’re talking about the Super Bowl with New England.

So what are the new stories this time around? Tom Brady is 41 years old, which is the age when Brett Favre’s body finally broke down. Of course, in 2010 Favre didn’t report until mid-August and his diet likely didn’t consist of the atrocities that Brady and his shady doc pass off as food. Age 41 was also the last good year for Warren Moon in Seattle, so we are getting deeper into unchartered territory here with Brady. Brian Hoyer is the backup rather than Jimmy Garoppolo now, but you get the sense that Bill Belichick can still win with Hoyer. Could he make Hoyer look like Nick Foles? That I don’t think will happen, but they could survive a stretch if something happened to Brady.

It was about to look like a repeat of 2004-05 when the Patriots repeated and lost both coordinators in the offseason. But the Eagles shut the door on this repeat opportunity, and Josh McDaniels weaseled his way back to Belichick. Matt Patricia is gone, but that may not be much of a loss after the defense was shredded in the team’s four losses last season. I can’t help but feel like this is the weakest New England defense on paper in years after the latest departure of Malcolm Butler from the secondary. However, the secondary still looks like the strongest part of the defense with all the veterans in place (the McCourty brothers, Patrick Chung, Stephon Gilmore). That doesn’t say much for the front seven, but at least Hightower is back.

The attention on New England right now is that the wide receiver depth chart basically consists of Chris Hogan, Cordarrelle Patterson, and Phillip Dorsett. That’s not reassuring, and it’s a far cry from having Brandin Cooks and Danny Amendola like last year. However, Julian Edelman will be back after a four-game suspension. In the meantime, they still have the best tight end in NFL history and some capable receiving backs. Those guys will put in a lot of work in September, and Hogan may even benefit from the targets sure to come his way. Patterson will probably take one bubble screen to the house, though he is a limited receiver. The burning irony here is that Patterson and Dorsett are both first-round picks. We heard Patriots fans for years criticize other quarterbacks for playing with first-round receivers, but now Patterson and Dorsett will be used as part of Brady’s latest burden. Gee, it’s like whether or not a player is good actually matters too. With Gronk, Edelman, Hogan and the backs, this offense will have enough firepower down the stretch to score with anyone.

In the end, it comes down to what it always comes down to with the Patriots: that coin-flip finish in the postseason. Can a team get pressure on Brady in the fourth quarter? Can the opposing quarterback lead a game-winning drive against Belichick’s defense that has only blown 18 fourth-quarter leads in 17 seasons? As I posted after SB 52, getting more pressure on Brady in the fourth quarter in the playoffs is the key. The Broncos (2015) and Eagles (SB 52) did so, but the other defenses did not.

I think Houston in Week 1 is a very interesting matchup as the Texans should have won that game last season, but dropped an interception late and gave up a game-winning touchdown to Cooks. I don’t think the Chiefs will have the offensive maturity (Mahomes is raw) to win in a postseason setting this year. The Jaguars have the defense, but can they trust Blake Bortles to throw on first down? I actually like Jacksonville to win that game in Week 2. I also think the Steelers get revenge on the Patriots in Week 15, which is why New England will be the No. 2 seed instead of No. 1. So like last year, Week 15 at Pittsburgh should define the regular season for this team. Oh, and I also snuck in another loss at Miami the week before. Otherwise the Patriots should finish 5-1 in division games.

This feels like the most vulnerable that New England has been in years, but I don’t think the conference, especially in the division, is ready to overthrow them from another first-round bye just yet.

2. Miami Dolphins (5-11)

I got into it with Miami fans again last season. It was probably an extension from 2016 when I said Miami was one of the worst 10-6 teams ever (supported by data). After the Dolphins were stomped out of the playoffs by Pittsburgh, I really wanted to see how Ryan Tannehill would fare in Year 2 with Adam Gase as his head coach. Of course, we never got to see that, but we were treated to Jay Cutler throwing 3-yard passes on third-and-14 to Jarvis Landry. The Cutler experiment never worked and the Dolphins were their post-Dan Marino irrelevant selves again last season.

Of course, the team was 4-2 at one point, but I think I may have stirred the pot again by calling them the worst 4-2 team ever (again, supported by data). This team was manhandled 40-6 to the Jets and Saints, only scoring that touchdown on the final play of the game against the Jets. The wins came via a missed field goal by the Chargers (typical), a 16-10 shitshow over the Mariota-less Titans, a 20-17 win over Atlanta after a tipped interception late in scoring territory, and a 14-point 4QC over the lowly Jets. You knew Gase wasn’t going to win every single one-score game ever, but the Dolphins only won twice the rest of the season. Sure, the win over New England was very impressive, but the Dolphins seem to do that often to that team in Miami. At least that was a highlight win for Gase’s first two years.

I want to believe Tannehill can come back better than ever, but two straight season-ending knee injuries is scary stuff. But he at least played well in the preseason and is healthy now. The move away from Landry may also be a blessing in disguise if it gets DeVante Parker, Kenny Stills, Danny Amendola, and rookie tight end Mike Gesicki more involved instead of what felt like force-feeding targets to Landry at times. Frank Gore and Kenyan Drake make for a pretty solid running back duo, and the defense isn’t without talent either. Cameron Wake can still get after the quarterback and Minkah Fitzpatrick made a ton of sense in the first round.

To be perfectly honest, Miami was my go-to team just to help some teams accumulate wins instead of having teams under 3-13. So I had them split with the Bills and Jets, for example. I also ended up putting the Dolphins at 0-8 on the road.

It may not make sense to most fans for a team to lose Landry and Ndamukong Suh and get better, but I’ve honestly never thought either of those players moved the needle much. So in a quarterback-driven league, Miami likely breaks .500 in a true breakout year by Tannehill — a tall order in Year 7 of a career. I’m not counting on that to happen obviously, but I’m at least able to see why the pieces are here for an improvement to happen. So take a bow, Miami fans, because I won’t surprise myself if I’m off by 4+ games on this one.

3. New York Jets (4-12)

One preseason prediction I got right last year was that the Jets would draft USC quarterback Sam Darnold in 2018. I thought it was going to be the first overall pick, but instead they moved up to third and got a break from the other New York team when they took the running back instead. I think much like when Leonard Williams (USC too) fell to the Jets in the draft, Darnold just fell and they made the no-brainer move.

GM Mike Maccagnan’s drafts have not been very good since 2015. At least he didn’t wait long to let the stain of Christian Hackenberg in the second round set in, but Bryce Petty, Devin Smith, and Lorenzo Mauldin haven’t worked out well either. He absolutely needs Darnold to be a hit.

I don’t know if the quarterback situation is exactly improved in 2018, because Josh McCown really had a career year in many ways last season. He helped Robby Anderson develop as a vertical threat, and Jermaine Kearse rebounded from a terrible 2016 in Seattle. Terrelle Pryor was a total bust in Washington, but maybe he can get back on track in New York. The leading receiver should be Quincy Enunwa, who looked impressive in 2016 before missing all of last year with an injury. The Jets are still nothing to write home about with the line or at tight end. Isaiah Crowell and Bilal Powell are serviceable in the backfield, but again, nothing special there.

So Darnold isn’t exactly going to start with a strong cast, but he should at least have a respectable defense. The Jets have really revamped the secondary after drafting two safeties in 2017 and adding Trumaine Johnson from the Rams. Morris Claiborne has improved from his Dallas days, but this isn’t a secondary that any of the top quarterbacks will fear throwing against. Williams lost Sheldon Richardson a year ago and now Muhammad Wilkerson went to Green Bay, so that defensive line isn’t what it used to be.

The Jets are still another draft or two away from really competing, but you just hope that Darnold shows improvement throughout the season and the team is ready to strike by the time Tom Brady finally retires in New England.

4. Buffalo Bills (3-13)

While the Jets seem to have a plan, can anyone explain what the hell the Bills are doing? They have over $50M in dead money going out to players. The gutting of this roster that once featured some impressive young talent continued in 2018. Some things were out of Buffalo’s control, such as Eric Wood retiring from injury, or when Richie Incognito finally flew over the cuckoo’s nest. But the draft was in Buffalo’s control, and the idea of a bold trade was floated around in March. They wouldn’t possibly trade up for Josh Allen at No. 7, right? That’s just crazy.

Welp, they did. So like I said, imagine gutting your roster, getting rid of Tyrod Taylor (your best QB since Jim Kelly), signing AJ McCarron, trading up to draft Josh Allen, cutting McCarron, and starting Nathan Peterman in Week 1. That’s where we are with this team. Whether it’s Peterman or Allen at quarterback, how in the world could this offense be effective? The offensive line has looked terrible after losing Wood, Incognito and trading Cordy Glenn to Cincinnati (another move that didn’t have to happen). You have a low catch rate receiver in Kelvin Benjamin who doesn’t have much value outside of trying to win jump balls. You have a possession receiver in Zay Jones who was horrific last year in catching 36.5% of his passes. Jeremy Kerley and Andre Holmes are low-production journeymen. Charles Clay is just a solid tight end. LeSean McCoy, assuming he faces no legal or suspension issues, is still quite good, but will see an inferior line in front of him this season. It’s just going to be one big bag of suck, relying on even more fluky turnovers to keep coming from a defense that actually wasn’t that good last year. At least I like Tre’Davious White a lot.

So while the Bills ended their playoff drought last year, that’s more about the NFL’s weak tie-breaker system that lets a team that was outscored by 57 points get in over two much stronger teams in Baltimore and the Chargers. This wasn’t a good team last year and it’s by large gotten worse this year. That’s why I have the Bills with the worst record in the league.

I know I picked Buffalo (and the Jets too) to finish 2-14 last year and was way off by the final record, but I think the fans who turned on Taylor after the New Orleans game are going to wish they had someone who can make something happen under pressure and doesn’t turn the ball over like crazy. Peterman’s not the long-term answer. Allen should start Week 1, but the fact that he’s not just further confirms the fact that trading for him was absurd. You make that move if you’re getting Peyton Manning or Andrew Luck to be the savior of your team. The kid who couldn’t find the broad side of a barn at Wyoming is not that type of prospect.

Maybe the day will come where I have to eat crow on Allen in the NFL. Trust me, Buffalo having a good quarterback and actually being worth watching would be fine with me. I’m beyond tired of New England ruling the AFC East. But I think this is just another draft pick that explains why the Patriots continue to dominate this division while the Bills are a laughingstock.


1. Philadelphia Eagles (11-5)

We’re still in the longest stretch in NFL history without a repeat champion (none since 2003-04 Patriots). We can thank the Eagles for keeping that alive by beating the Patriots last year, but can they repeat themselves now? You have to believe the Eagles are right in the mix in the NFC again, because this is one of the few teams that can reasonably finish in the top 10 on offense and defense. They have balance.

But I don’t really think there’s much that separates the Eagles from the other contenders in the NFC right now (Rams, Vikings, Packers, Falcons, and Saints). That should be a nice six-team battle all year long. Attrition might just win out. The Eagles did a great job of surviving injuries to Carson Wentz, Darren Sproles, and Jason Peters last year. They’ll get those players back, though Wentz’s return is TBD, and Super Bowl hero Corey Clement showed a lot of promise in Sproles’ absence last year. The losses aren’t too bad at all with Mike Wallace replacing Torrey Smith and Michael Bennett replacing Vinny Curry in the pass rush. You could really say first-round pick Derek Barnett is replacing Curry, which just goes to show how loaded that DL rotation is with Fletcher Cox, Haloti Ngata, Brandon Graham, and Chris Long. The rest of the defense is nowhere near as intimidating, and they did lose slot corner Patrick Robinson. At least we should get to see 2017 second-round pick Sidney Jones play this season.

One thing I will say that separates the Eagles from those other NFC teams is they have the best backup quarterback in the league right now with Nick Foles. The Super Bowl MVP will start the season tonight, but his career has been so up and down that it’s hard to say what to expect from him. I also think it’s reasonable to say that his postseason run was so good that Wentz could play 15 more years and never match it. So even if the Eagles return to the playoffs, it’s not like we know what to expect there given that Wentz wasn’t able to participate last season.

The lack of track record here makes this prediction that much more difficult. The Eagles won the Super Bowl after missing the playoffs for three years. That’s very rare, and teams close to that don’t always return the following year (see 1982 49ers or 2002 Patriots). It’s not like Doug Pederson or Wentz are finished products yet. The offensive-minded Pederson has to show he can replace Frank Reich and John DeFilippo on his coaching staff without missing a beat.

As for Wentz, while he made big improvements on his rookie year, I didn’t think his season was MVP caliber. I think the way Foles performed in his absence further cemented the thought that he shouldn’t be an MVP front-runner yet. Wentz only completed 60.2 percent of his passes with 7.5 YPA. There’s a ton of room for improvement there. The stat where Wentz soared was TD%, which was heavily influenced by the great field position he worked with. That’s hard to sustain year after year, so look for his TD% to drop this year. What was more impressive was how he handled third down and the red zone. Very strong performances there that will need to continue for the Eagles to keep a leg up on the competition. The knee injury shouldn’t be ignored either. It’s believed that it’s not until that second season back when a player is truly 100 percent. For example, Donovan McNabb tore his ACL in 2006, and his 2008 season was better than his 2007. Tom Brady’s 2010 was better than his 2009. With Wentz not returning in Week 1, which I thought was pretty likely given the ACL return timetable, we can’t assume there won’t be any ill effects from that injury this season.

I’m not going on some anti-Wentz rant here, but I am going to be logical about the Eagles’ chances this season. Are teams quarterbacked by Goff, Cousins, Rodgers, Ryan and Brees any worse off than one with Wentz coming back from a major knee injury? I don’t think so, though I do think Goff is a clear step down from that pack so far. Is Jay Ajayi and the backfield better than having Gurley, Cook, Green Bay’s RBBC, Freeman/Coleman, or Kamara/Ingram? I think Rodgers has the short end of the stick there, but those are favorable backfields for the other teams. Defensively, again I think Rodgers gets the short end, but he’s also the most talented QB here, and the other players have potentially strong defenses too. If you give a Ryan or Brees or Cousins a defense for a change, then why couldn’t they do something great too this season? The NFC playoffs basically came down to a few miracle completions (the deflected Foles completion before halftime that wasn’t picked off and the Minnesota Miracle) and one disastrous red-zone sequence with an incompletion (Ryan to Julio). I also don’t think the Eagles have the best receivers out of this group of six teams (tight ends included), though I did find the Dallas Goedert draft pick to be very smart.

While I’d be a bit surprised if the Eagles regressed out of the postseason, I don’t think they enter 2018 with any major advantages over their top competition. Winning the ring last year was great, but as this era has shown, repeating is extremely difficult.

2. Dallas Cowboys (9-7)

So there’s that. At 5-3, Dallas was in okay shape last season, losing a couple of high-scoring heartbreakers at home to the Rams and Packers. Then the Atlanta game happened. Not only did that begin Ezekiel Elliott’s six-game suspension, but left tackle Tyron Smith missed the next two games. The Falcons, Eagles and Chargers destroyed Dallas 92-22 in a three-week period. The Cowboys won four of their last five, but lost a big game (with Elliott and Smith back) to Seattle in Week 16 to miss the playoffs. A friendly reminder that the Cowboys scored 18 points in the last two weeks with Elliott back, so you can’t put all the struggles on “Dak’s nothing without Zeke.”

Now obviously Elliott and Smith are very important to this offense, but the offense still had talent without those players and could not score for three weeks. That also doesn’t excuse the pathetic defense that could not get a second-half stop for three weeks. Jason Garrett seemed to completely forget how to coach for those three weeks. Case in point, how do you keep letting Smith’s backup, Chaz Green, get beat for six sacks by the same move by Adrian Clayborn in Atlanta? That was a nightmare stretch for Dallas, the No. 1 seed in 2016.

Prescott’s second season certainly wasn’t on par with his rookie year, but it overall wasn’t that bad for a sophomore effort. I think with Smith and Elliott back this year, this offense has the potential to still be very good. Dez Bryant and Jason Witten were no longer getting separation or YAC. Prescott never had a good connection with Dez even in 2016, so I think they get over that loss. I’m just not convinced that Tavon Austin, Allen Hurns, and rookie Michael Gallup are the right trio of receivers to make up for those losses. They also didn’t fill the hole at tight end, but Rico Gathers has looked impressive at times in the past. Maybe he’s the Witten replacement, but we’ll just have to see.

Honestly, I’m surprised the Cowboys didn’t draft tight end Dallas Goedert in the second round. The Eagles just snagged him ahead of Dallas. When I mentioned this on Twitter in the preseason, there was this huge backlash as if Dallas could do no wrong in wanting left guard Connor Williams instead. “They never wanted Goedert” was a common response. How do we know Williams is going to work out? What if Goedert goes on to be a great tight end for your big rival? I don’t see the logic in how ignoring a potentially great player at a position you clearly needed is a good thing for Dallas. The offensive line was already supposed to be a strength, so why not fix tight end? We’ll see how it shakes out, though now the line doesn’t look so hot with the Travis Frederick health news. Always interesting in Dallas.

This is going to be Garrett’s eighth full* season as the head coach in Dallas. He has yet to reach a conference championship game. If it wasn’t for Marvin Lewis’ tenure in Cincinnati, I would say this just doesn’t happen in NFL history, but it shouldn’t happen in Dallas where expectations are always high.

*Well, we’ll see if it’s a full season. His eighth Week 1 at least.

If Dallas finishes with a losing record this year, I don’t see how this team doesn’t finally move on at head coach. They’re going to end up wasting Prescott during his rookie contract.

3. Washington Redskins (8-8)

My dark horse for most surprising team in 2018 would probably be Washington. I know 8-8 doesn’t sound like much when the Redskins were 7-9 last year, but that’s just because I was ultra conservative with picking wins and losses on their schedule.

What if Alex Smith, coming off his finest season yet, is actually a solid addition at quarterback? Personally, I would have paid Kirk Cousins, who is younger and perhaps hasn’t peaked yet, but this team basically burned that bridge already. Smith was a decent rebound option. I think he has a solid trio of wide receivers, gets to play with Vernon Davis again (you stay healthy too, Jordan Reed), and Chris Thompson is a receiving back that Smith should fall in love with quickly. Oh yeah, they also added Adrian Peterson after Derrius Guice tore his ACL, but at least Washington is a better fit than New Orleans for Peterson.

The defense has a pretty solid mixture of young players and veterans. Just imagine for once if this team actually stays healthy. Jay Gruden has dealt with some of the worst injury luck of any coach I’ve studied. So if you can get Smith to continue his low-turnover, somewhat efficient level of play, and the defense improves, then you’re talking about a team that can hang with just about anyone. The Redskins should have beaten the Chiefs and Saints last year, but Josh Doctson dropped a game-winning touchdown in the end zone and the Saints made a ridiculous 15-point comeback late in the game.

Washington might sneak up on some people this year, but at least this is one that would make some sense.

4. New York Giants (4-12)

Look, with a 37-year-old Eli Manning near the end of his rope, I don’t know how the Giants could pass on a quarterback for a running back. Even if Saquon Barkley is the real deal, this team had its pick of Sam Darnold, Josh Rosen, and yes, even Josh Allen with the No. 2 pick. I was always strongly against the Giants making the Barkley pick, because it’s a replaceable position where you can easily find production anywhere. It’s a position that is increasingly going to a committee approach to help with fatigue and feature specific skillsets (receiving, blocking, goal line). It’s a glamour position that doesn’t bring in rings like it used to. Did the Giants win a Super Bowl with the great Tiki Barber? No, he retired and they won it the next year with Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw. They won it again four years later with a fairly weak running game too. Why? The quarterback was at his peak, but Peak Eli was seven years ago.

Maybe Pat Shurmur has better success in his second stint as a head coach, but I think he’ll have to look for a quarterback again next year. If Eli can’t improve in this offense, then it’s definitely time to move on. It’s actually a pretty attractive offense for a quarterback with Odell Beckham, Sterling Shepard, Evan Engram, and if Barkley is as good as advertised. They made some adjustments to the o-line with Nate Solder and rookie left guard Will Hernandez.

I think the defense is still pretty suspect after losing Jason Pierre-Paul. Eli Apple hasn’t worked out yet as a high draft pick. At least they have pieces in place such as Landon Collins, Janoris Jenkins and Olivier Vernon, but it’s not one of the stronger defenses for the Giants.

So I still see this team finishing in last place. If Shurmur can work some magic with the talent that we know Eli has (it just doesn’t show up consistently like it did for his brother), then maybe there’s a rebound here. But just remember, the 1981 Saints drafted George Rogers first overall. He was about as impressive as he could be for a rookie, finishing with the most carries (378) and rushing yards (1,674) in the league. He also scored 13 touchdowns and was first-team All-Pro and Offensive Rookie of the Year. Oh yeah, the Saints also finished dead last in scoring and were a 4-12 team. It’s not that important of a position.

Barkley’s going to give us highlights that Orleans Darkwa and Wayne Gallman could only dream of, but from a team building perspective, this looks like a draft the Giants will regret.


1. Jacksonville Jaguars (10-6)

The AFC South was the toughest division for me to predict. I think it’s the one where the four teams are the closest together, and has some of the biggest question marks on star players returning from injury or a limited sample of NFL play.

In the end, I have the Jaguars repeating after a really strong 5-0 start before things cool down. I think at some point last year I compared the 2017 Jaguars to the 2006 Bears, but what if they were the 2005 Bears and the 2018 team is the 2006 Super Bowl team from Chicago? Either way, it’s a reference to Blake Bortles having Rex Grossman’s erratic play and relying on the running game to pound out carries and the defense to just be incredible.

Teams like this usually don’t sustain success in the NFL, because it’s just harder to be that great on defense year after year than it is on offense. We’ve seen this happen in Denver just recently. It’s also a fact that Jacksonville picked up 20 sacks in two games last year against bad teams starting quarterbacks not named Andrew Luck or Deshaun Watson.  That made those four games, all easy Jacksonville wins, much easier than they should be this year with those players back.

Bortles loved throwing drag routes last year, which Marqise Lee was great on (the other Jacksonville receivers were terrible). Lee is out for the season after tearing his ACL. The Jaguars survived Allen Robinson’s ACL tear in Week 1 just fine last year after Keelan Cole stepped up. They have Dede Westbrook too and added Donte Moncrief, but it’s not a well-developed passing offense. Austin Seferian-Jenkins is the TE1 and he was very ineffective with the Jets last year. Leonard Fournette should still be a workhorse, but keep in mind that the Jaguars were dominant in the three games he missed. He’s not a top-tier back yet.

It’s not like the defense still can’t be great, but I just don’t see the same dominance happening again. They were also very healthy last year, which is always important.

One thing I found interesting was the lack of talk about Doug Marrone last year. He finally got production out of a talented roster that Gus Bradley was wasting. Then I saw the AFC Championship Game where Marrone kept trying to run for a yard on every first down to get out of New England with a win. Yeah, we know that’s not going to work, and eventually the Jaguars were doomed like so many before them that played conservatively against the Patriots.

Then on Wednesday, I saw an article where Marrone said he wants zero turnovers from Bortles this season. Now as a goal on each Sunday, that’s a reasonable request of your quarterback. However, I hope Marrone doesn’t actually think any quarterback could get through a whole season without several turnovers. It’s just not feasible. Truly the worst part about the article was when Marrone said he would not exchange five more interceptions from Bortles if it meant an extra 15 touchdown passes. Are you kidding me? What coach would turn down that kind of trade-off? That’s a guaranteed +105 points for the offense assuming all extra points are made. As for the five interceptions, that’s 35  opportunity points your offense missed out on, and 35 points that may go to the other team in return. So worst-case scenario you’re looking at a net -70 points from the picks, which would still leave you +35 on the scoreboard. And when you expect your defense to be great, you don’t expect to give up five touchdowns on those picks.

It’s just frustrating to see coaches talk about turnovers like this. The Jaguars lost two games by a FG last year, and another one to Tennessee by 5 points. Just one extra touchdown in those games means a 13-3 finish and first-round bye.

Long story short, and #MylesJackWasntDown aside, I don’t expect Marrone to outwit Belichick any time soon, but maybe Calais Campbell can come up with a late strip-sack on Brady to make him look like he did. It’s all about finishing in this league and the Jaguars just didn’t put New England away. Lesson learned, hopefully.

2. Houston Texans (9-7)

J.J. Watt coming back from a major injury would usually be a huge deal, but we had that story last year and he just got hurt again. This team is about Deshaun Watson now after we got a brief glimpse of what could have been the greatest rookie quarterback season ever until a non-contact ACL injury in practice ended it.

Watson was electrifying last season. The Texans scored an extra 21 points per game with him compared to Tom Savage and T.J. Yates. It was only 6.5 games, but Watson had the highest DVOA without pressure since 2010, and the highest pressure rate in Football Outsiders’ database since 2010. He was on pace to rush for over 500 yards too. The TD% was a ridiculous 9.3 percent, which will surely go down this year, but to what exactly? That’s why I’m anticipating Watson’s season as much as any young quarterback’s season that I’ve ever seen.

Watson is the main reason I’m picking the Texans to return to the playoffs, but it also helps to be in the AFC where nine wins are probably good enough. The return of Watt and Whitney Mercilus could really help out a defense that struggled last year. Remember, for all of Watson’s brilliance, the defense couldn’t stop Brady and Wilson at the end of those games. So while I don’t think Houston is ready to overtake the division just yet, there is arguably more potential with this team than any in the league given what a healthy Watson and Watt could mean for both sides of the ball. I’m just hesitant to go above 9-7 based on a sample of 6.5 games from the quarterback and the fact that Watt hasn’t been at a dominant level since the 2015 season.

3. Indianapolis Colts (8-8)

I know, eight wins sound like a lot for a team that has a rookie head coach and arguably the worst non-quarterback roster in the NFL. That quarterback also hasn’t played since 2016 and was very shy about throwing downfield in the preseason (I wouldn’t worry about that yet until he does it in real games.) Drafting a guard with the 6th pick isn’t the most exciting addition in the world either.

But hear me out.

The 2017 Colts also had a pretty trash roster, Chuck Pagano was the head coach, Jacoby Brissett had to learn on the fly to start 15 games, and that team should have been way better than 4-12.

The 2017 Colts lost seven games after leading at halftime, the second-highest total in NFL history (1979 49ers/1990 Broncos – 8). Indianapolis blew five fourth-quarter leads, two more than any other team in 2017. The defense couldn’t hold the lead and the offense often went into the tank after halftime.

If — and it’s a big if — Luck returns at the level he has played in the past, then he can carry this team to at least twice that win total. He likely would have had this team with 8-9 wins last year, because he is great at finishing games off. The Colts’ problems under Pagano were usually the days where they were just blown out so badly right away on both sides of the ball that even Luck couldn’t dig out of the hole.

Frank Reich is a fresh set of eyes that the Colts needed after enough of the Pagano era. He wasn’t the first hire in mind, but he very well may be better than Josh McDaniels would have been anyway. But this all comes back to getting Luck back to throwing downfield and extending plays at a level that few in the league can emulate. I don’t like the weapons much at all. I think going overkill with the tight end position (Jack Doyle AND Eric Ebron?) is the wrong move here, because Luck likes his wideouts usually, and T.Y. Hilton is about all he has left anymore. To be fair, Ryan Grant had some decent metrics with Washington and might work out, but this is a pretty thin receiving corps on paper.

It’s not likely going to be a pretty season for Indy, but at least Luck is back. The last time we saw him in a game that mattered, he led a 17-point comeback against a Jacksonville defense that was starting most of the talent it has now. He definitely has to be conscious of getting rid of the ball more quickly at times, but as long as Reich doesn’t have him totally neutered in this return, I think the Colts stay in the playoff race all year long.

4. Tennessee Titans (7-9)

I think the Titans are hurt the most by the changes in the AFC South this year. This team doesn’t have an incredible defense like the one in Jacksonville, and Marcus Mariota’s down year puts him behind what Andrew Luck and Deshaun Watson can bring to their teams. The Titans also just about never beat Indy when the right quarterback is under center there (going back to 2009). Houston beat Tennessee 57-14 with Watson last year, but lost 24-13 in the rematch.

So I think that alone can change that 9-7 record into 7-9, but I am interested to see if Mariota picks things up now that Mike Mularkey is gone. It won’t be rookie coach Mike Vrabel, who has little resume to speak of coaching-wise, making the big impact there, but new offensive coordinator Matt LaFleur. He was Matt Ryan’s position coach for his 2016 MVP season and the offensive coordinator with the Rams last year under Sean McVay. Now I think projecting a McVay-type impact is a bit shaky, but if it means more play-action passing for Mariota, then that could be a great thing for the offense. I also think Corey Davis should show much more at wide receiver and Dion Lewis was a good pickup to the backfield.

Malcolm Butler was a good signing in the offseason on defense, and safety Kevin Byard had the breakout year I expected him to last season. The secondary will likely be the best part of the defense, but it still doesn’t look to have the makings of a great unit.

Lack of greatness is really a roster-wide problem with the Titans right now. There’s enough here for Vrabel to get to 9-7 as a first-year coach, but I think that’s more of a ceiling than the floor for this team.


1. Atlanta Falcons (12-4)

A 28-3 lead in Super Bowl LI against the 2016 Patriots — didn’t hold up. A first-and-goal at the 9, down 15-10 to the 2017 Eagles — didn’t get in the end zone. Two of the most memorable plays in those games were passes that should have been intercepted, but somehow ended up as completions for the Patriots (Julian Edelman on the game-tying drive) and Eagles (Torrey Smith before halftime). In between those games, we charted just five passes where a defense dropped an interception that turned into a completion for the opponent. Five times all season, but twice in the last two playoffs for Atlanta.

The Falcons have to be kicking themselves after giving the last two champions their biggest scare in the playoffs. This team has been that close to greatness. Just about everything that could have gone wrong after 28-3 went wrong last year, but this time in Philadelphia it was more about a horrible red-zone sequence of plays called by Steve Sarkisian. While some will say Julio Jones dropped that fourth-and-2 pass, I think he would have struggled to get his feet down in bounds, and it was just a terrible play call anyway.

So now the Falcons return with basically the same offensive cast, swapping Taylor Gabriel for rookie Calvin Ridley. Sarkisian has a year under his belt, and remember, Kyle Shanahan wasn’t too good in his first year with Atlanta. The defense should probably be better than the statistics suggest given all the talent (Grady Jarrett, Vic Beasley, Deion Jones, Desmond Trufant, Keanu Neal). There’s enough young talent there to still get better, and we’re talking about a 15-10 loss last year, so the defense did a good enough job. You just have to finish the game, and the Falcons haven’t done that in the last two postseasons.

I’m going all in on Atlanta this year to finally get the job done in Dan Quinn’s fourth season. I am a believer in certain teams needing a few heartbreaks before getting over the hump. The 1996 Packers, 2006 Colts, 2012 Ravens and 2015 Broncos are all proof of that. With those last three teams, you can definitely say that wasn’t the “best” team those franchises fielded during their run, but it was the one that finished in the postseason.

With Atlanta, I see a similar story unfolding, because I have the Falcons starting strong, including wins in both Pennsylvania trips. Yes, I think Atlanta avenges the Philadelphia loss tonight with Nick Foles under center for the Eagles. Yes, I realize something could happen tonight that throws off my whole story here, but I’m fine with that. I also have the Falcons struggling late in the year, losing on the road in New Orleans, Green Bay and Carolina. Just enough doubt late in the season for the Falcons to fly under the radar into the postseason, where they have been successful lately, winning at least one game in each of the last three trips.

The added bonus of the Super Bowl being played in Atlanta this season could be just the edge this team needs to get over the hump. Imagine a true home-field advantage in the Super Bowl. We know the Vikings came up a game short of hosting last year’s big game, but I think Atlanta pulls it off this year.

2. New Orleans Saints (10-6)

As I showed in FOA 2018, last year was really a tale of three seasons in one for the Saints, who broke their 7-9 funk streak to get back to the playoffs.

There were the first two games where the defense looked as putrid as ever, albeit against elite competition (Vikings and Patriots). Then the team finally found a defense and running game for Drew Brees, led by dominant rookie performers in Marshon Lattimore and Alvin Kamara. The Saints won eight in a row and looked Super Bowl ready. But then the defense and running game fell closer to the middle of the pack, and the Saints were a mediocre 4-4 to finish the year, losing in the playoffs on a miracle touchdown by Stefon Diggs in Minnesota.

So I’m a little concerned that the Saints are closer to a mediocre team that is still led by its most consistent part (Brees), a part that turned 39 in January. Brees didn’t have to do as much heavy lifting last season, but he still completed 72 percent of his passes (NFL record again) and led the league in YPA. He was throwing the shortest passes in the league relative to the sticks, but the running game was so efficient and the receivers were so good after the catch that it worked out. Still, Brees fell out of the top 8 in converting third-down throws for the first time in New Orleans. Sometimes you still have to throw beyond the sticks and be aggressive, so we’ll see if the Saints continue to rely so much on the running backs in the passing game.

Mark Ingram will be suspended for four games, but I’m really excited to see what Alvin Kamara can do if they increase his workload. I’m skeptical that they will, but maybe he can handle a peak Jamaal Charles type of workload. He had such an efficient, versatile year as a runner, receiver, and returner. It’s hard to expect he’ll be as good this year, but the Saints should still be balanced on offense.

Defensively, I did not care for the trade of a first-round pick to get Marcus Davenport, who won’t be a Week 1 starter this year. I thought the Saints could have used some more immediate help or keep that pick to get better next year. The window is very small for Brees here.

In the end, it all comes down to finishing. The Saints couldn’t close out Atlanta, Tampa Bay and Minnesota late in the season. This team otherwise may have been in the Super Bowl instead of Philadelphia. It would be nice to see Brees get one more shot at a ring at 39, an age where Manning and Brady won their last rings.

3. Carolina Panthers (8-8)

In the Ron Rivera/Cam Newton era, the Panthers have had three winning seasons and four losing seasons. I think this is the first 8-8 season. Again, the division/conference are deep, and I just trust Matt Ryan and Drew Brees to be more consistent than Cam Newton.

Norv Turner is the new offensive coordinator, and I’m curious to see how he uses Christian McCaffrey and C.J. Anderson. Turner typically likes a workhorse back, but we’ll see if McCaffrey can sustain touches like that. McCaffrey had one game with 15 carries last season and generally wasn’t effective as a rusher. Would Turner ever think to use both together with McCaffrey playing in the slot?

This is probably the deepest Carolina has been at receiver in the Newton era with the additions of D.J. Moore, Torrey Smith, Jarius Wright, and the return of tight end Greg Olsen.

The front seven still looks solid and the secondary still looks shaky. Carolina played well against most offenses last year except for the Saints, the only team to gouge them for more than 30 points in a 3-game sweep. I actually have the Saints ending Carolina’s season again in Week 17. A win at home by New Orleans puts the Saints into the 6th seed, dropping Carolina to 8-8.

4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-13)

I may regret this one, but I had Tampa Bay at 10-6 last season and it was a really disappointing season. This year I found the Buccaneers the hardest team to find wins for in the NFC. The Jameis Winston suspension is a small part of that, because I think even with him starting 0-3 is a real possibility based on the schedule. It’s a really tough schedule when you play in a division where the other three teams made the playoffs last year and all have well-established quarterbacks. I covered this in FOA 2018 that it’s a disadvantage facing Winston that no other quarterback in the 32-team era has faced. Every other quarterback in his division has either won an MVP or Super Bowl MVP.

I don’t think center Ryan Jensen is the magical answer to making the OL better, and Ronald Jones had a very disappointing preseason. Now preseason doesn’t often mean much, but it would have at least been inspiring if he was productive in it. A lot of rookie backs usually do look good in August if they work out in the real games. So the running game may still be an issue. Defensively, I like what they did to revamp the line, but the secondary still leaves me unimpressed. In a division where everyone can throw (and a conference that’s deep at QB), that’s a big problem.

Maybe Winston returns with a new focus that brings out his very best and the team gets to 7-8 wins, but my gut says it’s a real down year that leads to Dirk Koetter getting fired. Possibly the first coach to be fired in 2018.


1. Kansas City Chiefs (9-7)

I’m sticking with the Chiefs to win the division, because for all his shortcomings, Andy Reid is still the best coach in the AFC West. He knows how to get the most out of his quarterbacks, and Patrick Mahomes is such an exciting prospect to play in this system. I remember writing once that by going to Kansas City, he might actually have a defense unlike his days in college. Welp, the Chiefs have fallen off a good bit on defense, so it very well may look like Texas Tech all over again for Mahomes. That’s why I’m only going 9-7 in a tight division.

The good news is that this offense is stacked with athletes. Tyreek Hill might be the fastest wideout in the game, and that 60+ yard touchdown bomb the two connected on in the preseason could be a sign of things to come. Travis Kelce only looks up to Gronk in the TE rankings in this league. Kareem Hunt led the league in rushing as a rookie. Sammy Watkins should be a solid addition and another vertical threat. It’s just about the perfect setup for Mahomes, who may end up leading the league in ALEX, aDOT, and the lowest failed completion rate. He’s the complete opposite of Alex Smith when it comes to being aggressive.

Having said that, I will acknowledge that Mahomes may not be an upgrade to Smith in 2018. For one, Smith was at his best in 2017. He still wasn’t overly aggressive, but when he did throw deep, he was often on the money and delivered some big throws in big moments. So the success of the deep passing game may not actually improve this year (quantity will though). The other big thing is turnovers. Smith always kept his low, but with Mahomes, I get the feeling we’ll be routinely shaking our heads wondering why he threw that ball. He’ll offset it by making spectacular, highlight-worthy plays too, but I think the growing pains of being a first-year starter are going to lead to more turnovers than usual in a Reid offense, which could be a problem with a defense that’s not up to par.

But Mahomes is no longer a rookie, and we’ve seen first-year starters (non-rookies) light it up before. Daunte Culpepper in 2000 is a great example of that. I don’t see any reason why Mahomes couldn’t be a Pro Bowl-caliber quarterback right away with the talent around him and the coaching advantage he has. The only quarterbacks I’m more excited to see this year are Watson and Garoppolo, but we just may be talking about the Chiefs as the most explosive offense out there.

Unfortunately a division win means another playoff game at cursed Arrowhead.

2. Los Angeles Chargers (9-7)

I have the Chargers barely in the playoffs, but I’m really skeptical of picking this team to do big things like get a bye or even win a playoff game. Philip Rivers has been consistently putting up big numbers for years, but his efficiency peaked in 2008-09 if we’re being honest. We also know the team can’t stay healthy as they already have the worst injury luck with Hunter Henry and Jason Verrett going down before Week 1. At least Antonio Gates re-signed with the team and they are used to playing without Verrett (deep at corner too). But it sure would have been nice to have those two guys ready this season.

The other issue I have is that the Chargers have folded against good competition for years. The Chargers are 3-20 in their last 23 games against teams that made the playoffs that year. That includes two wins over the 2016 Texans (Osweiler trash team) and 2017 Bills in the infamous Nathan Peterman start. About the only impressive win this team has in four years was the 33-30 comeback win in overtime in Atlanta in 2016. (In case you haven’t heard, the 2016 Falcons liked to blow big leads.) But that’s it. And when Rivers has played the Patriots in his career, well let’s just say Murphy’s Law unfolded almost every time. We saw that again last year when the Chargers self-destructed in a 21-13 loss. They somehow intercepted Blake Bortles twice after the two-minute warning (with the lead) and still lost in Jacksonville. Plus, when the Chargers had a chance to take control of the AFC West with a big road win in Kansas City last year, they folded in a 30-13 loss, their worst score of the season.

But I do really like the depth at wide receiver, new blood on the offensive line, and they have an elite duo of edge rushers in Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram. Casey Hayward can be a No. 1 corner. Caleb Sturgis hopefully won’t choke at kicker. A lot of the right ingredients are there, but it’s just a matter of whether or not you can trust this team.

3. Oakland Raiders (6-10)

In true 1998 fashion I wish this Oakland prediction was hosted on an Angelfire site, which might take a couple of minutes to load with your dial-up connection.

When Jon Gruden made his $100M return to NFL coaching after a decade, I thought the “I am trying to throw the game back to 1998” line would sustain jokes all season long. You know, Gruden was going to show the team this new comedy called There’s Something About Mary after practice. He’d have to get a new tablet each week after always digging into the screen with an actual pencil. He’ll try to use Oakland’s 2018 first-round pick on Charles Woodson, because it worked in 1998.

Lest we forget, Gruden was not an aggressive coach in his day. He also wasn’t very successful after his 2002 Super Bowl win with Tampa Bay, his first year there with a defense essentially crafted by Tony Dungy. Gruden went 0-2 in the playoffs the rest of the way.

I didn’t think this would be an epic blunder by the Raiders on the scale of bringing Art Shell back in 2006, but Gruden sure seems to be trying his hardest to make this an actual joke. It was cute when he wanted a fullback or blocking tight end to play smash-mouth football again. It raised eyebrows when he cut the team’s solid punter who danced too much. It started to get really troublesome when the Raiders were signing a stock of over-the-hill veterans (some with recent ACL/Achilles injuries), or damaged goods like Doug Martin. Gruden’s wandering eyes seemed to be scouting players from the Pro Bowl rosters back when his broadcasting career began.

But nothing compares to the batshit-craziness of not speaking to Khalil Mack, your best player, for months and eventually trading him because you didn’t think you could pay him. Oh, Gruden’s getting paid, and they already once made Derek Carr the highest-paid player in NFL history. But you really don’t have the money to pay an elite defender at age 27 that’s really the only great part of your defense? It’s madness to not get Mack signed to a second contract.

Granted, the Raiders have generally been poor on defense with Mack, but I don’t know how they ever expect to get better without him. Those draft picks, namely two first-rounders from Chicago, are unlikely to provide that type of value. The Raiders already cut 2017 second-round pick safety Obi Melifonwu. Hopefully we’ll see more from Gareon Conley this year, but it’s a pretty sad group the Raiders have on that side of the ball.

You probably know I don’t think Carr is anything special, though he might like a back-shoulder fade to Jordy Nelson this year. The Martavis Bryant trade was a total flop (third-round pick lost) after Bryant may face another drug-related suspension. No value there. The idea that Amari Cooper might soon command $18 million per year just about turned my stomach. Imagine paying an average of $43 million per year to Carr and Cooper, a duo that didn’t even connect for 700 yards last year at a time they should be hitting their prime together. Jermaine Kearse had a better year with Josh McCown throwing him the ball for the Jets last season.

I actually have the Raiders starting 0-6 going into the bye, which should be enough time for Gruden to reset his clock from 1998 to at least 2008. And I think the Raiders actually will pick up some big wins late in the season so that this doesn’t look like a total clusterf*ck.

This guy. Wild, man.

4. Denver Broncos (6-10)

I’ve only been off by a game on my Denver predictions in the two years since Peyton Manning retired. But Denver might be the hardest team in 2018 to predict, because what are we going to get from Case Keenum? He’s better than Trevor Siemian and Paxton Lynch at least. But he was one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL with the Rams in 2016, though some of that is on Jeff Fisher. He led the NFL in passing DVOA last year with Minnesota in a real Cinderella season and breakout Year 6 that just doesn’t happen. The guy threw for a million yards in college, so it’s good to see him having some success, but I can’t help but feel like 2017 will always be his peak. So much of the success was based on his play under pressure in the way that he avoided sacks to get rid of the ball to great receivers. That type of play usually doesn’t sustain itself well from year to year, and Keenum was putrid under pressure in 2016 for example.

In Denver, Keenum will have Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders, which is solid, but not as good as Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen. The hunt for a third wideout and a tight end has been on for years in Denver, but maybe Courtland Sutton and Jake Butt can help there. I liked the pick of running back Royce Freeman, though I still don’t think the offensive line is anything special in Denver.

The defense added Bradley Chubb, which should probably work out better as a pass-rushing mate for Von Miller than Shane Ray did. However, the secondary lost Aqib Talib, so the no-fly zone isn’t quite what it used to be. But this defense was not as bad as the scoring numbers suggest last season. The offense and special teams constantly put the defense in horrible field position. The Broncos were No. 2 in yards per drive allowed, but 14th in points allowed per drive because of the worst field position in the league. So if Keenum can protect the ball (not a given), then maybe he’ll be able to reap the benefits of a defense that should keep him in the game more often than not.

If you can promise me the Keenum of 2017 in 2018, then I’d say the Broncos are playoff worthy with Miller still leading a strong defense. However, I’m not optimistic about Keenum carrying over his play to Denver, and I’m not yet sold on Vance Joseph as a head coach. That’s why I think the Broncos still struggle and miss the playoffs for the third year in a row. Maybe Josh Rosen should have been the pick at No. 5. That’s one we’ll have to keep an eye on in the coming years. At least the team has moved on from the mistake that was Paxton Lynch.


1. Los Angeles Rams (12-4)

Sean McVay was a very deserving winner of the Coach of the Year award. He turned around a struggling offense in historic fashion on the way to a 11-5 finish. While some teams like this have been one-year wonders in the past, I think the Rams have a great chance to be different after adding Ndamukong Suh, Aqib Talib, Marcus Peters, and Brandin Cooks. That’s pretty rare to be able to add four players of that caliber in the same offseason. You add that to MVP runner-up Todd Gurley and arguably the best defender in the game (Aaron Donald), and it’s a pretty stacked roster.

Of course, these off-season champions don’t often do too well when the real games start. Maybe Suh doesn’t gel as well with Donald as one would expect. Maybe the lack of an edge rusher (Robert Quinn left for Miami) makes the defense a little too reliant on interior pressure. Maybe the offensive line with three over 30 starters starts to show some decline. Almost certainly the big YAC plays from last year won’t be sustainable — certainly not a 50-plus yard touchdown on third-and-33. Todd Gurley averaged over 12 YAC/catch, a real outlier going back to 2006.

I still have questions about Jared Goff, who I thought had the most misleadingly great stat line of 2017. He certainly improved over a brutal rookie year and I at least have confidence in him to get this team back to the playoffs. But I’m not sold he’s an upper-tier QB just yet. They really helped him out last season with an offense that had the most YAC and throws to slot receivers. Cooper Kupp was a great rookie, and I think Sammy Watkins was underappreciated last year, but Cooks seems like a good replacement. I still don’t have a ton of faith in the tight ends, but perhaps Gerald Everett gets more work this season.

I think if your team is weak up front and not strong at wide receiver, then the Rams are designed to blow you out. Imagine a quarterback hurrying a pass to avoid Donald and Suh in his face, and he throws blindly outside the numbers to the waiting hands of Peters or Talib. This defense could easily lead the league in pick-sixes this year. So I think the Rams are going to roll some teams, but can they win the tough games on their schedule? We didn’t see much of that last year as they lost to the Eagles, Vikings, and then Falcons in the playoffs. If you finish off the Eagles in the game that Wentz was injured, then we could have been talking about the Rams as the No. 1 seed and best path to the Super Bowl.

So I’m definitely looking forward to how these new players fit in, but I wouldn’t write this off as a super team that’s going to roll everyone on the way to a Super Bowl. There are enough question marks and contenders left to keep this interesting.

2. San Francisco 49ers (9-7)

This is such an interesting one. Teams that finish strong haven’t been shown to often carry that over into the following season, because usually there are too many changing variables from one season to the next. But the 49ers went from losing every close game last season to inserting Jimmy Garoppolo and pulling out every close game behind strong quarterback play. I don’t think the TD:INT ratio is a good way to judge what Garoppolo did, because he was stellar on third downs, stellar under pressure (positive DVOA), and engineered scoring drives at a high rate with 8.8 YPA. Playing in the same offense with largely the same players around him, you saw the big difference he made over C.J. Beathard and Brian Hoyer. This is also building on a couple of starts in New England where Garoppolo again had great numbers in a small sample size. Now a full season of Garoppolo in Kyle Shanahan’s offense?  I really can’t wait to see it.

Overall I don’t really love the roster right now. I think there’s a lot of potential on defense, but few proven players, especially in that front seven where so many high draft picks have been invested. Richard Sherman should help out a secondary that still looks like a work in progress. The Jerick McKinnon ACL injury is a bad break, but Alfred Morris has been good everywhere he’s gone, and Shanahan’s system just works for backs time and time again.

I actually have the 49ers starting 2-4, because I think the schedule is tough early on the road. One thing you have to remember about the 5-0 finish last year is that they weren’t beating great teams. They snuck by the Bears, Texans, Titans, looked impressive against Jacksonville, and finished by beating up the Rams’ backups in a meaningless game for Los Angeles. It’s a bit different when teams come in knowing who your quarterback is and you’re on the road against Minnesota, Kansas City, Chargers, and Packers.

But I like Garoppolo and believe he can be the real deal. I just think they’ll need another year to get in the playoffs, so I have the 49ers as the No. 7 seed this season.

3. Seattle Seahawks (7-9)

I really want to believe that Russell Wilson is good enough to get this team to at least 8-8 on his own merit, but the departures have been too much to overlook. This is probably the weakest the defensive line has been after losing Cliff Avril and Michael Bennett. This is definitely the worst the secondary has been in years after Richard Sherman and Kam Chancellor departed. Earl Thomas still might get traded. The Legion of Boom just fell off the Titantron. It’s also the weakest the tight ends have been in Wilson’s tenure after losing Jimmy Graham and Luke Willson. The offensive line, it is what it is by now and I think Wilson is used to dealing with that. The wide receiver depth may be the weakest it has been in Wilson’s time too. I love Doug Baldwin and think Tyler Lockett still has untapped potential, but they lost Paul Richardson (made some crazy catches in his time) and Brandon Marshall looks washed up.

Like I said in June…

Then there’s the Brian Schottenheimer angle at coordinator, and the talk about establishing the run and a first-round selection on a running back. This team hasn’t drafted well for years and it’s showing in a major way with the current state of the roster. Maybe Chris Carson is the right featured back, but that just makes the Rashaad Penny pick look that much sillier. Wilson had a nice year last season in carrying the team to 9-7, and the potential was there for more wins with better special teams play. However, Wilson also disappointed in some games with game-winning drive opportunities. He seemed to be pressing more than ever and that could get even worse this season as he tries to drag this team back to the playoffs.

I originally had Seattle at 8-8, then I saw how the team practically never scores (or wins) in Week 1 under Pete Carroll, and the Broncos are notorious for being dominant at home in September. So 7-9 it is, the first losing season under Wilson. If he proves me wrong, definitely throw his name back into the MVP race.

4. Arizona Cardinals (4-12)

I know, David Johnson is back after going down in Week 1 last season. The Cardinals should feel better than 4-12, but again, I had to find wins for other teams. Months ago, I felt like the Cardinals were the easiest pick in the league to regress from an 8-8 finish spawned by five game-winning drives led by three different quarterbacks. I always talked about Bruce Arians’ magic beans in close games, and I’m doubtful that Steve Wilks is going to replicate that kind of close-game success. I’m already leery after hearing Wilks described as an old-school “run the ball and stop the run” coach. I was wrong about Arians as a head coach in Arizona, but I just don’t have a good gut feeling on Wilks so far.

I liked the Josh Rosen draft pick, but understand why Sam Bradford is here to collect millions of more dollars until he inevitably gets hurt again. So maybe we’ll see Rosen anyway, and hopefully it’s a certainty we do late in the year if the Cardinals are out of the playoff picture. I like Johnson in the backfield, but I don’t think the receiving corps is very good outside of Larry Fitzgerald. The defense lost another key player in Tyrann Mathieu. Bradford’s not terrible anymore, but unless Johnson is transcendent, Robert Nkemdiche breaks out, and Christian Kirk has a monster rookie year, I just don’t see a ton to be excited about in Arizona right now.

They have to let Wilks, a one-year coordinator, get his feet wet and get the roster better for Rosen to compete in 2019. The NFC is too deep right now to realistically expect much this season.



  1. Pittsburgh (12-4)
  2. New England (12-4)
  3. Jacksonville (10-6)
  4. Kansas City (9-7)
  5. Los Angeles (9-7)
  6. Houston (9-7)

I have Pittsburgh edging out New England for home-field advantage based on a Week 15 H2H win. The Chiefs get the division over the Chargers thanks largely to a Week 15 home win in their rematch, setting up a Round 3 in the playoffs. Yes, Arrowhead gets to work its curse again, but the Chargers bring their own voodoo to that one. I also have a Round 3 between the Texans and Jaguars, which actually gets set up by Jags laying down (No. 3 seed locked up) in Week 17 to the Texans, who edge out Baltimore (9-7) for the final spot. If we give the Jags and Chiefs those wins, then it’s some recent AFC playoff rematches (KC-PIT, JAX-NE), which very well may set up another NE-PIT AFC Championship Game, but back at Heinz Field this time. I know, it’s insanity to think this team is going to beat the Pats in Week 15 and a month later too, but you just get tired of picking the same thing. Besides, the Patriots have been swept before by the 2005 Broncos, 2006 Colts, 2011 Giants, 2012 Ravens, and 2015 Broncos. It can happen.


  1. Minnesota (12-4)
  2. Atlanta (12-4)
  3. Los Angeles (12-4)
  4. Philadelphia (11-5)
  5. Green Bay (12-4)
  6. New Orleans (10-6)

I was killing myself with the tie-breakers with four teams at 12-4. I think I got it right though. The Vikings get the division over Green Bay based on a better division record, which makes Green Bay the No. 5 seed. The Rams fall to the third seed based on the worst conference record out of them, Vikings, and Falcons. Finally, the Vikings get the top seed over Atlanta based on a better record in common games (4-1 vs. 3-2). I think Aaron Rodgers pulls off a mini upset in Philadelphia to knock out the champs, setting up shades of the 2010 run that started in Philly. But the Vikings take two out of three meetings against the Packers, and the Falcons knock out the Rams for the second year in a row. This sets up a rematch from 20 years ago when the Falcons stunned Minnesota in the NFC Championship Game after Gary Anderson missed a field goal that would have sealed the deal. Because it’s Minnesota, something crazy happens again, and Matt Bryant kicks the Falcons back into the Super Bowl.


Atlanta 28, Pittsburgh 24

Make that a home Super Bowl for the Falcons since the game is in Atlanta this year. The Falcons jump out to another big lead, but this time they hold on. Bell fumbles in the fourth quarter a la Rashard Mendenhall in XLV, and Julio Jones wins Super Bowl MVP because god forbid Matt Ryan ever gets that type of recognition. At least a ring should lock up his HOF spot after 11 seasons.

TL;DR version: it’s finally Atlanta’s year.


NFL Week 15 Predictions: The Showdown

A pivotal weekend for sure, Week 15 should have a major impact on the direction this season is headed. Not only do we have the game of the year in Pittsburgh, but there are other big headlines like the Eagles moving forward without Carson Wentz, the return of Aaron Rodgers in a must-win game at Carolina, and a rematch between the Rams-Seahawks where Seattle can really take control of the NFC West again.

But if you know me, you know exactly where I’m focused this week.

Game of the Year: Patriots (10-3) at Steelers (11-2)

This is arguably the NFL’s biggest regular-season game this late in the year in a decade. You may recall that epic 2007 season when the undefeated Colts and Patriots met in Week 9, and later when 10-1 Green Bay visited 10-1 Dallas. This is definitely on that level with the No. 1 seed and inside track to the Super Bowl in the AFC on the line.

It’s fitting to mention that 2007 NE-IND game, because that is really the last “big” road win for the Patriots, over 10 years ago. They have controlled the AFC East so much, and have had a lock on a first-round bye since 2010, so the Patriots are only 0-2 in road playoff games since 2007 (both losses in Denver). So they don’t have a road playoff win, and they have 9 other road wins over teams who made the playoffs. That includes some pretty soft competition like the 2011 Broncos (8-8 Tebow squad), 2014 Colts (the one-man team), 2015 Texans, 2016 Dolphins, and the 2016 Steelers with Landry Jones at QB.

In fact, the only 12-win team the Patriots have beat on the road since the 2007 Colts was the 2010 Steelers (12-4) at midseason when they were 6-2. Maybe the 2017 Saints, who the Patriots beat in Week 2, will get to 12-4 as well, but clearly they weren’t playing that well to start the season, especially on defense. This year’s Pittsburgh team should be able to go 13-3 at minimum, even if they rarely look the part.

So this is a much bigger road test than usual for the Patriots, who have failed such matchups before like in 2009 (Indy and NO), 2011 (Pittsburgh), 2014 (Green Bay), and 2015 (Denver).

We know the Steelers play much better at home on offense, and that’s where the offense has scored at least 26 points in every game this season except for that 9-point clunker against Jacksonville’s No. 1 pass defense. The Patriots do not have Jacksonville’s defense, but we know that this matchup hinges largely on what the Pittsburgh defense that has made Brett Hundley and Joe Flacco look great in recent weeks will do against Tom Brady.

What more can you say that the numbers can’t? Brady is 10-2 against the Steelers with 29 touchdowns to three interceptions. It doesn’t matter if the Patriots run the ball or not in these matchups, because they can always control the flow of the game with the quick-passing game. They also know when to pick their spots for deep shots against the Steelers, including some trickery like the throwback pass from Randy Moss to Brady in 2007, and a version of that last year in the AFC-CG.

Unless Father Time is smelling blood in the water with Brady, there’s no reason not to expect he will shred this defense again. The Patriots almost never drop two games in a row, so I’m not sure if the shocking Miami loss wasn’t some purposeful half-assed effort with the main focus always being on this important game for home-field advantage. New England also gets Rob Gronkowski back, and that obviously makes a big difference for Brady and everyone. Pittsburgh has had a hell of a time with him (eight touchdowns allowed in five games), and not even covering him has been a problem in the past.

This could also be a game where Danny Amendola and the receiving backs (Rex Burkhead, Dion Lewis, James White) get a lot of catches. I doubt we’ll see many runs from the Patriots. Chris Hogan and Brandin Cooks are more manageable for the Pittsburgh secondary, though they made Hogan look like Steve Largent in January and Cooks could add to the long list of 50+ yard touchdowns allowed by this defense, which misses Joe Haden. Yes, Ryan Shazier is a big loss, but the Patriots do a good job of making the linebackers irrelevant in this matchup by getting rid of the ball so quickly and into the slot. Keith Butler has his work cut out for him more than usual this week.

That’s why this game is really on Ben Roethlisberger and the offense to deliver. Control the game like they did in 2011, the last time the Steelers beat New England. That day the Steelers have five drives of 10+ plays, and held the ball for 39:22 in a 25-17 win. They also pressed the receivers on defense to make things more difficult on Brady, who still didn’t have a lousy game by any means. He just had fewer opportunities, which is why Roethlisberger has to be lights out on third down and in the red zone. He’s been very good in recent weeks, so I think he can deliver against the ultimate bend-but-don’t-break defense, but converting third downs and red-zone trips into touchdowns is paramount here. Mike Tomlin also can’t be settling for 50+ yard field goals, or sub-20-yard FGs, and punting inside the NE 40 in this matchup as he’s done before. If you can’t acknowledge that you’re playing the New England Patriots instead of the Cleveland Browns, you’ve already lost.

The return of JuJu Smith-Schuster gives Roethlisberger another option that he’s been more successful with as opposed to Martavis Bryant this year. Jesse James has also come along at tight end in recent weeks. Le’Veon Bell is putting in a ton of receiving work in recent weeks. There’s also a guy named Antonio Brown. Pittsburgh has more than enough weapons to move up and down the field all game long in this one. Just have to score touchdowns and play from ahead early. These games are almost never close between these teams. I’m not sure there’s been a real close game since the 2005 matchup, won 23-20 by the Patriots.

Roethlisberger has to be patient in this matchup and take what the defense gives him. Basically, be like Brady, which he did in 2011 and he did against the Ravens last week with another 500-yard passing game. Don’t force the deep ball on third-and-1 like he did to start the AFC-CG. Just extend the drive and keep Brady off the field. Easier said than done, but I’d be really surprised if the Steelers couldn’t score at least 27 points in this one.

For as difficult as a task as New England is for the Steelers, this might only be the first of two times they have to beat them to get back to the Super Bowl. I just don’t see another AFC contender standing in these team’s ways. In fact, it’s extra important for the Steelers to get the No. 1 seed so that they should only have to face one of Jacksonville and New England instead of both. The worst realistic outcome would be for the Steelers to finish as the No. 2 seed and have to host the No. 3 Jaguars in the divisional round. The Jaguars are a really tough matchup for Pittsburgh this year. Then of course if they won that one, they’d have to go to Foxboro where they play this team even worse every time. So winning this game is absolutely critical.

Is beating New England twice in the same year reasonable? The 2005 Broncos, 2006 Colts, 2011 Giants, 2012 Ravens, and 2015 Broncos all did so. The 2010 Jets went 2-1 against them, and even turned around from 45-3 in December to that stunning playoff upset. So it can be done. But the Steelers first need to show us they can hang with this team at home in a massive game. If they can’t do it this year, then I really don’t see this Killer B’s era team ever getting past NE.

You probably think I’m leaning towards Pittsburgh in this matchup, and honestly, I think I am too. However, I just can’t overlook the way the Steelers are squeaking out last-second FG wins over the Colts, Packers (without Rodgers), and Ravens. Or how the D is suddenly giving up big plays every week, and giving up 33 PPG at home to Hundley and Flacco. Now they get their arch nemesis when he’s in his “Angry” mode after a loss and has Gronk back? Not to mention the chess (Belichick) vs. checkers (Tomlin) coaching matchup.

I simply can’t do it. Not this time.

Final: Patriots 34, Steelers 27

2017 Week 15 Predictions

Aside from Saturday’s games, I’m going pretty vanilla with favorites this week. Just think there’s a lot of easy calls, which means we’ll probably have a ton of upsets and I’ll be bitching on Twitter about them.


  • Week 1: 8-7
  • Week 2: 11-5
  • Week 3: 9-7
  • Week 4: 8-8
  • Week 5: 6-8
  • Week 6: 6-8
  • Week 7: 11-4
  • Week 8: 12-1
  • Week 9: 6-7
  • Week 10: 12-2 (Spread: 6-8)
  • Week 11: 8-6 (Spread: 8-5-1)
  • Week 12: 12-4 (Spread: 7-9)
  • Week 13: 11-5 (Spread: 10-6)
  • Week 14: 6-10 (Spread: 7-9)
  • Season: 126-82 (Spread: 38-37-1)

NFL Week 17 Predictions, Playoff Teams and Writing Recap

Part of me wishes the NFL regular season was not ending today, while some part of me is ready to move on to the playoffs.

This Week’s Articles

Captain Comeback Week 16: Steelers’ Meltdown Complete – Cold, Hard Football Facts

Pittsburgh came up a drive short to beat the Bengals, who are headed to the playoffs for the second straight season after Ben Roethlisberger threw another late-game interception. At home, Roethlisberger was a perfect 40-0 when the Steelers allowed 17 points or less in his career. Elsewhere the Cowboys had another great comeback to force overtime, but the Saints came away with the win. Andrew Luck joined the list of 11 seasons in which a quarterback led 7 game-winning drives.

Pittsburgh Steelers’ 2012 Season in Review: Where Did It All Go Wrong? – Bleacher Report

An in-depth review of where it all went wrong for the 2012 Pittsburgh Steelers, starting with the offseason plan that failed, the lack of an offensive identity, and the identity fraud of a defense that can no longer get takeaways.


Following a Legend: Andrew Luck Week 16 at Kansas City Chiefs – Colts Authority

Andrew Luck led his 7th game-winning drive, the Colts overcame a record 352 rushing yards from the Chiefs in a win, and clinched a playoff spot at 10-5. Luck went 0/10 at one point in the second half, but as always, here is the play-by-play account of what really happened. Luck’s game-winning touchdown pass was his 4th this season, which is another rookie record.

The Thinking Man’s Guide: NFL Week 17 Predictions – Bleacher Report

This week we have the biggest game in Matt Schaub’s career, not the biggest game in Tony Romo’s, why Christian Ponder needs to be more of the MVP on Sunday if Minnesota wants to make the playoffs, and why a 2,000-yard season for Calvin Johnson would not be as impressive as it sounds.

It’s Do-Or-Die For Some in Week 17 – NBC Sports

A handy guide to what to watch for in Week 17, including playoff scenarios and NFL records on the line.

NFL’s New Overtime System Requires New Strategies for Coaches and Teams – Cold, Hard Football Facts

There have been 22 overtime games this season; the third most ever in one NFL season. With the new rules, combined with the kickoff rules increasing touchbacks, new strategies must be formed. Only 3/22 teams have taken the opening-drive kickoff for a touchdown, and it was always an 80-yard drive. A look at what might be the optimal strategy in the new OT, and it’s not the kind of gutsy decision-making you might have expected.

2012 NFL Week 17 Predictions

I always hate picking Week 17 games because of some teams treating it like preseason.

Winners in bold:

  • Buccaneers at Falcons
  • Jets at Bills
  • Ravens at Bengals
  • Bears at Lions
  • Texans at Colts
  • Panthers at Saints
  • Eagles at Giants
  • Browns at Steelers
  • Jaguars at Titans
  • Chiefs at Broncos
  • Packers at Vikings
  • Dolphins at Patriots
  • Raiders at Chargers
  • Rams at Seahawks
  • Cardinals at 49ers
  • Cowboys at Redskins

Season results:

  • Week 1: 12-4
  • Week 2: 11-5
  • Week 3: 4-12
  • Week 4: 10-5
  • Week 5: 10-4
  • Week 6: 5-9
  • Week 7: 12-1
  • Week 8: 10-4
  • Week 9: 11-3
  • Week 10: 9-4-1
  • Week 11: 11-3
  • Week 12: 10-6
  • Week 13: 8-8
  • Week 14: 11-5
  • Week 15: 11-5
  • Week 16: 12-4
  • Season: 157-82-1 (.656)

With my final picks, here is the playoff field I’m predicting:


  • 1. Houston
  • 2. Denver
  • 3. New England
  • 4. Baltimore
  • 5. Indianapolis
  • 6. Cincinnati


  • 1. Atlanta
  • 2. Green Bay
  • 3. San Francisco
  • 4. Dallas
  • 5. Seattle
  • 6. Chicago

NFL Week 15 Predictions, Rookie QB Study and Writing Recap

Is it Sunday yet? Bring on the best Sunday schedule of the regular season.

This Week’s Articles

Captain Comeback Week 14: 2012 NFL Rookie QBs Make More History – Cold, Hard Football Facts

For the first time ever, two rookie quarterbacks (Robert Griffin III and Kirk Cousins) combined to lead a fourth-quarter comeback win. Could it have been avoided if the Ravens went for a two-point conversion to take a late 9-point lead? We have stats on that. Also, the Colts won a game when trailing by 13 points at halftime, something teams only do 11.5 percent of the time. Tony Romo had his 17th comeback win, which is the most in Dallas history. Even the Rams are getting heavily back into comeback wins after having two from 2007-11.

Why Mike Wallace is Struggling, and What It Means for Steelers WR in 2013 – Bleacher Report

Mike Wallace wanted Larry Fitzgerald money, then Vincent Jackson money, now he might be lucky to get Antonio Brown money. A look into why he has struggled in 2012, and the warning signs were there before the season even started.

Following a Legend: Andrew Luck Week 14 vs. Tennessee Titans – Colts Authority

Andrew Luck can play 18 years and never have a game with a more misleading TD:INT ratio (1:2). That’s what happens when you have a pick six that was a sack blown by the refs, a Hail Mary INT before halftime, and a dropped 35-yard TD that could have been the game-winner. Instead Adam Vinatieri made his 30th game-winning field goal and Luck set a rookie regular season record with his sixth game-winning drive.

The Thinking Man’s Guide: NFL Week 15 Predictions – Bleacher Report

Peyton Manning will look to keep his 8-game winning streaks alive for both the Broncos and against the Baltmore Ravens. The Giants will take on Matt Ryan in the Georgia Dome, where he is 32-5 but has struggled this season. Jay Cutler always struggles with the Packers, home or road. Finally we will see if the 49ers can slow down the Patriots in a “No. 1 offense vs. No. 1 defense” matchup. Hopefully we’ll just have a great game somewhere, as there have been too many marquee duds this year.

Save the Roll for January, Not December – NBC Sports

“You want to be playing your best football in December.” It’s a cliche, but is it true? I examined the final four regular season games for all 120 playoff teams from 2002-11 to find out if playing well late has any impact on playoff success. The truth is it does not, and more than your record, it pays off to be playing well (scoring differential). Teams who finish 2-2 are just as likely to win in the playoffs and a Super Bowl as teams who finish 4-0 in the regular season. Not to mention the whole playoff rest strategy some teams use plays directly against building momentum for the playoffs.

In summary, just another myth. The Giants are known for getting hot twice, but what about a horrible loss at home to the Redskins in December in both 2007 and 2011? The only thing that matters is how you play that day in the postseason where anything can happen in the one and done.

The 2012 NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Are the Best Rookie Class Ever – Cold, Hard Football Facts

Thanks to the record-setting seasons of the 2012 rookie QB class, they are clearly the best class ever based on rookie performance only. The standard has been increasing for rookie QBs, and this offers a detailed look into the numbers and history that has led to this point. We have eight tables and two graphs in this one. This is basically “Every Thing You Always Wanted To Know About Rookie Quarterbacks * But Were Afraid to Ask.”


Colts Q&A with Scott Kacsmar + numbers, thoughts for the game – Houston Chronicle

For a change of pace this week, I did a Q&A previewing Colts/Texans with Stephanie Stradley for the Houston Chronicle. I call the Colts the worst 9-4 team in NFL history, but if Houston lets them stay around late, the Colts will definitely have a shot to pull the upset.

2012 NFL Week 15 Predictions

Part of me wanted to take Philadelphia on Thursday night, but fortunately I didn’t drop the ball on that one and took the Bengals. That’ll conclude the Thursday night games this season.

Winners in bold:

  • Giants at Falcons
  • Broncos at Ravens
  • Packers at Bears
  • Redskins at Browns
  • Colts at Texans
  • Jaguars at Dolphins
  • Buccaneers at Saints
  • Vikings at Rams
  • Lions at Cardinals
  • Seahawks at Bills
  • Panthers at Chargers
  • Steelers at Cowboys
  • Chiefs at Raiders
  • 49ers at Patriots
  • Jets at Titans

Season results:

  • Week 1: 12-4
  • Week 2: 11-5
  • Week 3: 4-12
  • Week 4: 10-5
  • Week 5: 10-4
  • Week 6: 5-9
  • Week 7: 12-1
  • Week 8: 10-4
  • Week 9: 11-3
  • Week 10: 9-4-1
  • Week 11: 11-3
  • Week 12: 10-6
  • Week 13: 8-8
  • Week 14: 11-5
  • Season: 134-73-1 (.647)

NFL Week 10 Predictions, Midseason Review and Award Predictions

In writing a NFL midseason review, it takes a lot of work to come up with something for all 32 teams. I learned that this week, passing the milestone of having written 200 articles (all but eight of them done since mid-July 2011).

But even after making playoff predictions and second-half predictions for the teams, one thing I did not write anywhere were my picks for the individual awards, so here they are. The picks are based on who I think has deserved it in the first half, and not necessarily who willl win the award at the end of the season.

First-Half Awards

  • MVP: Matt Ryan
  • Offensive Player of the Year: Adrian Peterson
  • Defensive Player of the Year: J.J. Watt
  • Offensive Rookie of the Year: Andrew Luck
  • Defensive Rookie of the Year: Chandler Jones
  • Coach of the Year: Mike Smith
  • Comeback Player of the Year: Peyton Manning

This Week’s Articles

Captain Comeback Week 9: New York Giants Shell-Shocked by Pittsburgh Steelers – Cold, Hard Football Facts

Pittsburgh came back on the road from a 10-point deficit in the fourth quarter to win for the third time in the Ben Roethlisberger era. Andrew Luck led his fourth game-winning drive in just his eighth game. Matt Ryan (27 years, 171 days) became the youngest QB to reach 20 game-winning drives. Also included is a review of how each team’s offense has done in 4QC/GWD opportunities this season. Only Houston and San Francisco has yet to face one.

NFL Midseason Report – NBC Sports

This is one of three articles I did for NBC Sports this week as part of a midseason review special, and this is the central piece that looks at all 32 teams: where they have been this year, and where they are headed.

Five Biggest Surprises of 2012 NFL Season – NBC Sports

Which surprises continue to amaze us halfway through the season? A look at Peyton Manning’s comeback in Denver, Andrew Luck and the Colts’ quick rebuild, the five rookie quarterbacks, the disappointment of the New Orleans Saints, and the recent dominance of Tampa Bay rookie Doug Martin.

Are These NFL Teams Pretenders or Contenders? – NBC Sports

Finally, I take a look at some playoff hopefuls and just how legit their chances are, focusing on the remaining schedule and conference playoff races. Teams included: Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Indianapolis, San Diego, Miami, NY Giants, Seattle, Minnesota, Detroit, and Tampa Bay. I conclude with a prediction for the 12 playoff seeds when it’s all said and done.

Andrew Luck: Midseason Review for Colts’ Rising Star – Bleacher Report

How good has Andrew Luck been so far? I break down his first eight games by the numbers and find all the records he’s already set or is on pace for. Hint: there are a lot of them.

Following a Legend: Andrew Luck Week 9 vs. Miami Dolphins – Colts Authority

My traditional Luck column, breaking down his record-setting performance by Miami where he passed for 433 yards and converted 12 of 17 third-down opportunities.

The Thinking Man’s Guide: NFL Week 10 Predictions – Bleacher Report

You voted for change? Well, not really, but change has come. Not only did I give a marquee preview of Texans/Bears, followed by Colts/Jags, Chargers/Bucs and Falcons/Saints, but I picked every game this week, and will continue to do s.

Predicting the Second Half of a NFL Season Using the First Half – Cold, Hard Football Facts – Cold, Hard Football Facts

Is the second half of the season just a repeat of the first half? Not quite, but we can learn some things from it. Since 2002, 71.3 percent of teams leading their division through eight games go on to win the division. Also some interesting results on the sustainability of offense versus defense, and more playoff predictions.

2012 NFL Week 10 Predictions

Dallas didn’t quite come through last week, marking the first time I picked against Atlanta this season. I am doing it again this week, but promise to only do it one more time at most going forward (regular season at least).

Winners in bold:

  • Raiders at Ravens
  • Broncos at Panthers
  • Giants at Bengals
  • Titans at Dolphins
  • Lions at Vikings
  • Bills at Patriots
  • Falcons at Saints
  • Chargers at Buccaneers
  • Jets at Seahawks
  • Cowboys at Eagles
  • Rams at 49ers
  • Texans at Bears
  • Chiefs at Steelers

Season results:

  • Week 1: 12-4
  • Week 2: 11-5
  • Week 3: 4-12
  • Week 4: 10-5
  • Week 5: 10-4
  • Week 6: 5-9
  • Week 7: 12-1
  • Week 8: 10-4
  • Week 9: 11-3
  • Season: 85-47

The Whistleblower No. 4 – Mike Mayock, the 1979 Pittsburgh Steelers and the Worst Example Ever

Since we haven’t heard from The Whisteblower in a while, here was a little gold from right before the kickoff of Thursday Night Football on NFL Network.

Mike Mayock was talking about Kansas City’s awful turnover differential (-13; it was actually -18), and said this line in regards to it:

“I don’t care if you’re the 79 Steelers, you are not winning football games turning the ball over.”

That’s fine, except Mayock could not have picked a worse example than the 1979 Pittsburgh Steelers.

The 1979 Steelers turned the ball over 52 times (worst in the league), and still went 12-4 in the regular season. They even led the league in scoring as well (416 points). Their turnover differential was -10, so it’s not like the defense balanced things out that much.

In the playoffs, the Steelers continued turning the ball over, with 8 giveaways in the three games. They still won the Super Bowl. Terry Bradshaw was Super Bowl MVP despite still throwing three interceptions in the game.

Everyone gets it. “Turnovers are bad, mmkay?” But Mayock could not have picked a worse example to make his point.

This is probably going to be the highlight of the night watching this awful game between San Diego and Kansas City.

Update 8:57 P.M.: Mayock is in a battle with the Chiefs, who just turned the ball over again, to see who can have the worst night. After the Chiefs fumbled on a third-down screen, Mayock said it wouldn’t have mattered as they would have turned the ball over on downs. No, not even thinking it was fourth down, but thinking it was third down.

Wow. What ever happened to the punt and better field position?

Update 11:01 P.M.: After a pick six by the Chiefs, Mayock went to the well for the third time on the 79 Steelers.

NFL Week in Review: Andrew Luck Live, Matt Ryan on FOX, and 5th-Year Breakout QBs

A goose, a moose, and the son of Marv Albert walk into a bar…

Watching a live NFL broadcast is good for the creative mind. You can pick up plenty of ammo for The Whistleblower, and every once in a while you might learn something of value.

I watched the Cincinnati Bengals at Atlanta Falcons preseason game on Thursday night, or at least as much as I could stomach, and I found multiple things worth looking into.

First, the FOX broadcast team of Kenny Albert, Daryl Johnston and Tony Siragusa seemed pretty supportive of Atlanta’s Matt Ryan. There was not much talk about the playoff struggles, but instead they went optimistic for Ryan to really get things going in his fifth season.

In fact, even after one nice play by Ryan in the game the crew said something to the effect of “maybe the 5th year really is the breakout year for a young quarterback!”

Now they were not being scientific of course, and neither am I today. But I decided to dig a little into quarterbacks, with the help of Pro Football Reference’s Play Index, and see if there was any proof for the 5th season being the breakout season.

This would be defined as the QB having his best season in his fifth year, and ignoring any season that came afterwards for the purposes of this study.

The results were surprising, as I actually did find several high-profile cases of a QB having a career-year in season 5. Certainly enough to actually warrant the claims the FOX crew threw out there.

Note: When I say career-high here, I am only looking at the first five seasons unless noted otherwise.

5th-Year Breakout QBs

  • Sid Luckman (1943) – This one is influenced by WWII, but 1943 was the year Luckman threw 28 TD and had a ridiculous 107.5 passer rating.
  • Sonny Jurgensen (1961) – after riding the bench for four years in Philadelphia, Jurgensen got his shot in 1961 and threw for a then NFL record 3,723 yards and 32 TD.
  • Daryle Lamonica (1967) – After four backup years in Buffalo in which he was also a punter, Lamonica exploded with the Raiders, throwing 30 touchdowns and leading the team to Super Bowl II.
  • Bob Griese (1971) – Had a career-high 90.9 passer rating while throwing 19 TD to only a career-low 9 INT.
  • Ken Stabler (1974) – Threw 26 TD  and won the only AP NFL MVP award of his career.
  • Ken Anderson (1975) – Though 1974 was incredible too, Anderson made his first Pro Bowl and a 10-win season in 1975, while throwing for a      career-high 3,169 yards and 21 TD.
  • Danny White (1980) – Backup to Roger Staubach no more, White threw 30 TD and led Dallas to a 12-4 record and the most points scored in the league.
  • Joe Montana (1983) – One could argue 1981, the first Super Bowl win, was a better year, but in 1983, Montana had a career-high in yards (3,910), TD (26), and passer rating (94.6).
  • Dave Krieg (1984) – though he was more efficient in 1983, he only played half the season. In 1984, Krieg threw 32 TD and led Seattle to a 12-4 record.
  • John Elway (1987) – His lone MVP  award of his career came in 1987, which was the best season Elway had in his first 10 seasons actually.
  • Boomer Esiason (1988) – Won league  MVP and led the highest-scoring offense in the league to the Super Bowl in the best year of his entire career.
  • Chris Miller (1991) – Here’s a former Falcon. 13th overall pick in 1987, Miller had his lone Pro Bowl      season in 1991 when he threw 26 TD and led Atlanta to the second round of the playoffs.
  • Brett Favre (1995) – had a career-high in yards, TD and passer rating. Favre won his first MVP award.
  • Scott Mitchell (1995) – Yep, the one-year wonder came alive in 1995 with 4,338 yards and 32 TD for the Detroit Lions.
  • Matt Hasselbeck (2003) – Threw a career-high 26 TD while leading Seattle to 10-6 and the playoffs. He wanted to score too much that year.
  • Tom Brady (2004) – Brady had his best statistical season in year 5 as he led the Patriots to a third Super Bowl in four seasons. It was the first time he had a passer rating over 90.0 in a season, and this was easily the most dominant NE team to win a Super Bowl.
  • Tony Romo (2007) – In his second year as a starter, Romo led Dallas to a 13-3 record, threw for 4,211 yards, 36 TD and had a 97.4 passer      rating.
  • Philip Rivers (2008) – forget the  8-8 record, Rivers was on fire that year with 34 TD and a league-best 105.5 passer rating.
  • Eli Manning (2008) – After the  Super Bowl win, Manning had the best regular season of his career in 2008, leading the Giants to a 12-4 record and setting career highs in comp.  percentage, YPA and passer rating.
  • Aaron Rodgers (2009) – In just his second year as a starter, Rodgers threw 30 TD to only 7 INT, and had a 103.2 passer rating.

I could go on, but 20 rather high-profile cases is good enough to get the point across. Year five has been a breakout year for many of the all-time greats.

But what about the math check? We are talking about five seasons, so there is a 20 percent chance a QB will have his career/breakout year in the fifth year.

Even more inflating is the fact that most of these quarterbacks are not like Matt Ryan: starters from day one. Only Griese and Elway were five-year primary starters. When you sit on the bench for multiple seasons like Rivers or Rodgers, then it is even more likely your 5th season will be your best. Rodgers had a 50 percent chance, because all you could really compare are 2008 and 2009.

Notice players that started as rookies like Peyton Manning, Dan Marino, Ben Roethlisberger and Johnny Unitas did not make the list. That’s not to say they were not any good in year five, but it was not their best effort.

Matt Ryan’s best season was 2010. Maybe he will surpass it this year, but it is far from being a lock.

Great QB-Head Coach Pairings

Matt Ryan entering his fifth season also means Mike Smith is entering his fifth season as head coach of the Falcons. They came in together, and as I wrote at Bleacher Report last week, that is one of the great ways to turn a team around.

I looked at 80 cases in the Super Bowl era (but not every single case) of a team getting a new head coach and quarterback in the same year. Nine have been extremely successful (the elites), 20 had moderate success (Ryan/Smith fit in here), 12 were average/one-year wonders, and 34 were complete and utter failures together. That leaves five active/unknowns.

That includes 2012 rookies Chuck Pagano/Andrew Luck in Indianapolis, and Joe Philbin/Ryan Tannehill in Miami. They are the 31st and 32nd examples of a team hiring a rookie head coach and drafting a first-round QB in the same year since 1966.

FOX Gave Me a Concussion

The worst thing from the NFL on FOX, besides Laura Okmin’s interviews in Baltimore on Friday, was the semi-brutal discussion in Atlanta about the new kickoff rule helping to bring concussions down 43 percent on kickoffs. The crew boasted about how great that was, but they were misleading people by only looking at that one number.

As I wrote last week with data from Edgeworth Economics, concussions may have went down 43 percent on kickoffs, but it is because the number of kicks actually returned went down to 53.5 percent. In previous seasons, returnable kicks were in the lower 80’s in percentage.

Kickoffs are not safer. They just are less frequent. Going from 35 to 20 concussions on kickoffs sounds nice, but not so much when the overall concussion number only goes from 270 down to 266. That means concussions on other types of plays increased in 2011.

Also, we are talking about a one-year sample size, which was unusual because of the lockout. Let’s see what happens with the injury data this year before declaring the kickoff rule change a success.

Maybe we need five years of data for it to be clear. Just throwing it out there, much like Fox did in their effort to talk up Matt Ryan during a meaningless preseason game.

At least they were not blatantly wrong…this time.

Andrew Luck…Live and In Person

Finally, I went to the Colts/Steelers game last night, which means I did not get to hear any of Al Michaels and Cris Collinsworth. They are not a duo I have a beef with, and you kind of miss hearing some type of analysis offered other than the loudest people sitting in your section.

With the stadium Wi-Fi almost nonexistent and a lack of stats on the scoreboard, I was pretty much forced to use the eyeball test to follow the game. This is exactly why I never go to regular season Sunday games (I have actually never been to a regular season or playoff game period), because I cannot be away from all the action going on around the league. I need details.

Not to mention I still favor my couch and computer chair. Even if the seat was pretty damn nice.

Ben Roethlisberger threw maybe the worst interception I have ever seen him throw, and I have seen them all. The Steelers showed very little on offense outside of Antonio Brown’s incredible run-after-catch on the touchdown. I have not seen a Pittsburgh WR do that since Santonio Holmes did it to the Baltimore Ravens in the 2008 AFC Championship.

I don’t know if Antonio Brown can replace Mike Wallace, but he has been a great replacement for Holmes.

Just before the game I learned via Twitter the NFL Network showed my tweet about predicting a 9/16 for 84-yard performance by Luck against Pittsburgh’s defense. I missed it. Again.

Andrew Luck started off with a weird Bruce Arians screen that saw Reggie Wayne go in motion, and Luck threw at his teammate’s ass (it appeared that way to me at least). I actually saw Wayne in motion and line up on the right, which is far different from his usual “I only line up on the left” role in Indy’s offense.

Luck threw a good pass to Collie, who must have dropped it on the way to the ground after taking yet another hit that saw him walk slowly to the bench. I don’t feel very good about the long-term career of this kid, which is a shame because he is a talented receiver.

That 19-yard reversal seemed to take forever, as did most of the challenge/reviews with the replacement refs. At least they knew which teams were playing tonight.

Luck’s pick six by Ike Taylor was a poorly thrown pass, and you know things are going bad when stone-hands Ike Taylor is taking your pass to the house. At this point, Luck was 2/8 for 16 yards and the INT.

But like he did last year at Stanford, he came right back from a mistake and led his offense to a touchdown. This is a great article from ESPN on Luck’s career at Stanford, and one of the facts I remembered was Luck bouncing back from interceptions last season.

After 10 interceptions in 2011, Luck led Stanford to 7 touchdowns on the ensuing drives. He was 28/34 for 288 yards, 3 TD and no turnovers on those drives. He knows how to immediately make up for a mistake.

After starting the next drive with a sack, Luck could have easily folded down 14-0 on the road, but he came back with four straight completions on a touchdown drive. He did have a second interception, but that was all on T.Y. Hilton throwing the big gain up into the air for a turnover.

Though he was 8/16 for 79 yards and two picks to start the game, numbers pretty close to my 16-attempt prediction, I was still far off on how Luck would finish the night. He was 16/25 for 175 yards, a TD run, and the two INT.

He had a spike to set up a last-second field goal. He had at least two drops that would have been another 40 yards in the half. Luck was pretty impressive in my book.

The game does not count for anything, and is irrelevant in the grand scheme of things.

But for one night, I experienced football from an angle without any commentary, statistics, while watching two teams I respect, and with players I may never see in person again in my life.

Now that it’s over, my anticipation for the real thing is much greater.

Coming up this week: expect articles on regression for elite offenses, potential myth-busting, and a PSA on bad stat usage. I will also give the podcast world a try for the first time.

(If you were looking for the punchline to the joke at the beginning, think “something, something…sodomy and glory holes”)