Tag: Rams

NFL 2024 Week 10 Predictions: All Eyes on Washington Edition

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

If you thought the title would be a nod to the 2024 election this week, you’d be right. If you think I’m going to give Orange Caligula any more oxygen in this space right now, you’d be wrong. He should die of gonorrhea and rot in hell. The Washington I’m watching this weekend is the Commanders, and I’m excited to finally see a full live game with Jayden Daniels. I think Steelers-Commanders is clearly the highlight game on Sunday, and we’ll see if a return by Nico Collins in Houston could bolster that matchup on SNF.

But I also want to quickly point out that Week 9 was a great reminder that you don’t always have to pick underdogs just for the sake of picking them. I’ve been guilty of that a lot this season as I didn’t want to just publish picks where the favorite covers and wins. But in Week 9, favorites were 14-1 SU (God damn Saints) and 10-5 ATS. Almost perfect.

Favorites have been on a good run after a lot of upsets early this season in the games with the biggest spreads. But now that we’re into the second half of the 2024 regular season, we are seeing this is a top-heavy season. There are nine teams with just 2 wins going into Sunday. The last team who makes the playoffs in the AFC could be a mess unless the Bengals or Jets finish strong. The NFC is stronger, but the NFC West has been messy with the teams blowing double-digit leads against each other as they jumble around .500 right now. The Cowboys have fallen apart sooner than expected.

It’s getting easier to pick winners since the games are usually playing out as lopsided as they look on paper now. But I will say that doesn’t apply to Sunday’s first game in Germany where we somehow sent the Giants and Panthers. We’re not sending (or voting for) our best.

This Week’s Articles

NFL Week 10 Predictions

Silly me for thinking the Ravens-Bengals would at least try to play a different game script than Week 5. But it turned into more of the same with the Bengals choking away a game they should have won (again). Maybe neither team ultimately decides who wins the Super Bowl this year, but the thin margin in those games is something else. We’re two solid snaps away from the Bengals at 6-4 and the Ravens at 5-5 right now.

Panthers-Giants: Not a chance I won’t be sawing logs during this one. But I think Carolina can build off its win and use Chuba Hubbard against that poor run defense. Giants having to win by 6.5 against anyone with Daniel Jones feels like a lot.

Patriots-Bears: Not sure how to react to Bears playing so poorly on offense since the bye. Just banking on hope that Maye makes some mistakes and Caleb channels his 2022 Justin Fields against the New England defense with a big game.

Bills-Colts: I’m very tempted to take both the Bills and Chiefs to struggle this Sunday with their big showdown a week away. Shades of 1990 Giants-49ers when they were supposed to meet undefeated and both lost the week before. I think Joe Flacco will definitely score more this week to keep the job, but I’m still going to trust the Bills on the road. But I won’t be surprised if they win by 3 and don’t cover.

Vikings-Jaguars: Can Sam Darnold get a call for a blow to the head this week? I just think the Vikings are better on both sides of the ball and should win by a touchdown.

Broncos-Chiefs: Odds are suggesting a 24-17 game and that passes the sniff test for me. Division games are weird. Sean Payton got a couple of cracks at the Chiefs last year. At least Mahomes shouldn’t have the flu this time, but I don’t think the Chiefs will score a ton against a team that knows them well and has mostly played good defense this year. All comes down to how Bo Nix handles the blitzes sure to come his way, but I think his mobility could be very useful here. I’ll go with the KC classic: they win and don’t cover.

Falcons-Saints: This is going against the grain but I’m calling for the upset. Everyone is shitting on the Saints, including the Pope having fun with hashtags on Twitter. But I think they get a first-game interim coach boost, they’re due for a 4QC win (none since 2023 started), and the Falcons needed 2 return touchdowns to beat them at home earlier this season. The losing streak stops here. If not, then I’m probably not picking them the rest of the season in any game.

49ers-Bucs: CMC is finally back, but even if he wasn’t, I think the 49ers coming off a bye and feeling healthier is an easy pick against the Bucs, who left the tank empty on Monday night in KC. I view this game quite similarly to Jags-Vikings this week. I know, the 6.5-point spread is the kiss of death this season, but I just feel good about the 49ers here.

Steelers-Commanders: I think it’s a 23-20 type of game that comes down to the last seconds and a FG. I’m going to go with Washington, because I believe the Steelers aren’t well prepared for this impressive rookie who can attack them at every level of the field. Unfamiliar opponents. Of course, it wouldn’t shock me if the Steelers won 23-17. Why that score? That’s the score they won by on the road in Arizona in 2019 against Kliff Kingsbury and Kyler Murray, and that’s the score Washington won by in Pittsburgh in 2020 on a Monday, the game that was the beginning of the end for the Pittsburgh offense looking functional under Big Ben. But I’m still going to trust Jayden Daniels in this one as he’s actually 5-0 ATS as a favorite this year. It should be fun.

Titans-Chargers: Will Levis is back, and he’s facing the No. 1 scoring defense? Then I think the streak of games under 40 points for the Chargers can continue. Give me LA 23-13.

Jets-Cardinals: It’s not so much that I believe the Jets are going to start reeling off wins, but I just don’t know what to make of Arizona yet. Apparently I’m not alone as this is a small spread in a week with 8 games having a spread of 5.5 and higher.

Cowboys-Eagles: You might say the Eagles should dominate, but they nearly blew a 22-0 lead to Trevor Lawrence last week. Mike McCarthy usually does a respectable job with backup QBs like Cooper Rush, who made it a 20-17 game in the fourth quarter in 2022 when he was in Philly on SNF with the Eagles during their peak run to that Super Bowl year. He lost 26-17 in the end, and he threw 3 picks, but I think the Cowboys will actually make this respectable before losing again. Backdoor cover is always an option.

Lions-Texans: Preview link above but I just think the Texans are the inferior team here, and the Lions should keep rolling. But I am intrigued by the No. 1 defense in lowest completion % vs. No. 1 QB in highest completion % as Goff is over 83% in his last 5 games. But if it’s actually close, don’t discount some C.J. Stroud magic now that Nico Collins is back. Still, it’s a bummer Diggs tore his ACL as this one had high potential for a non-conference game on SNF. It still might deliver.

Dolphins-Rams: I always say fade the Dolphins on the road against good teams, but are the Rams still good? It’s hard to say, but I’m taking them with their weapons. Hopefully we can avoid a Puka ejection this week.

2024 NFL Stat Oddity: Week 3

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

I don’t think I’m going to like this season very much. You know there are some shenanigans going on when the first 3-0 teams were the Steelers, Vikings, and Seahawks. None of those teams were favored to even make the playoffs this year.

The Chiefs got there too on Sunday night, but after winning their eighth one-score game during this 9-game winning streak, it doesn’t look like this will be anywhere close to the strongest Kansas City team yet. Might even be the complete opposite.

There are six teams who were in the playoffs last year, including both No. 1 seeds, that are sitting at 1-2: Dolphins, Ravens, Browns, Cowboys, Rams, and 49ers.

Big favorites continue to go down at alarming rates. On Sunday, the four teams who were favored by 6.5 points were 0-4 SU (Buccaneers, Browns, 49ers, and Raiders). There were 18 such losses all of last season and 14 in 2022. We’re already up to seven this season.

Things are just crazy right now, injuries are piling up for many teams, and it’s not like blown leads/comebacks are largely responsible for these results. There were only six games with a comeback opportunity in Week 3, and only two games had a fourth-quarter lead change.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

49ers at Rams: Game of the Week

I thought the Eagles had the worst blown lead in the fourth quarter by a team this season after what they did in each phase against the Falcons on Monday night. But the 49ers may have found a way to outdo it here.

First, Brock Purdy was fantastic in this game. He finished 22-of-30 for 292 yards and 3 touchdowns (all to Jauan Jennings), but that doesn’t account for 6 drops. Ronnie Bell should take a permanent seat on the bench with his Limas Sweed ass hands. Purdy even ran 10 times and looked as mobile as ever as he tried to get the job done for his offense in a game without Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle, and Deebo Samuel. His only real mistake was a strip-sack before halftime, but that was right after Trent Williams momentarily left the game with an injury, and it didn’t lead to any points for the Rams.

The short-yardage running game hurt them in the fourth quarter when Jordan Mason couldn’t convert a 3rd-and-short, causing the 49ers to settle for a field goal and 24-14 lead. Later, a holding penalty ruined a drive, but Jake Moody could have made a 55-yard field goal with 2:43 to effectively ice it as a 10-point game, but he missed it. I thought he gained some confidence last year with some big kicks in the playoffs, but this was a big miss in a season where everyone seems to be crushing it from deep.

Then the defense had its letdowns with Matthew Stafford, who didn’t have Cooper Kupp or Puka Nacua, using Tutu Atwell for deep balls to quickly get in scoring range. A 50-yard pass to Atwell set up a Kyren Williams touchdown and it was 24-24 with 1:51 left.

Purdy again did his job on the next drive, but Bell had a horrible drop down the field that set up 3rd-and-10. The Rams forced a punt, and the special teams further contributed to the downfall with a 38-yard punt return by the Rams with 42 seconds left.

The 49ers somehow had three defensive penalties on one snap with the pass interference moving the ball halfway to the 25. You can basically run the clock down there, which the Rams did, and they kicked a 37-yard field goal with 0:02 seconds left to take a 27-24 lead. A shocking comeback and total failure by the 49ers in so many ways, and yet somehow still appropriate for what we’ve come to expect from a Kyle Shanahan team.

I must say the 49ers looked like they had something cooking on their lateral play to end things. Definitely one of the better attempts you’ll see at trying to go 70 yards in one play.

A loss would have buried the season for the Rams (1-2). This loss doesn’t bury the 49ers (1-2), but it could haunt them for seeding. Seattle getting off to a 3-0 start isn’t ideal either, but the teams will meet in Seattle on a Thursday night in Week 6 after the 49ers have some winnable home games with the Patriots and Cardinals.

But the 49ers absolutely wasted one of the best games Purdy will give them this year. The loss will cause others to ignore how well he did with all the injuries they had too. Just a rough day all around if you’re a 49ers fan.

Chiefs at Falcons: Old Hat

I think from 2018-22, the Kansas City Chiefs were the main attraction in the NFL. They played the most entertaining style of offense, and they were involved in the biggest and best games of this era. They were a spectacle to watch.

But the 2023-24 Chiefs? I can see why so many people have turned to hating them, and it’s not just sour grapes over losing big games to them. They’ve become annoying to watch in a Spygate-era Patriots way in that it seems like every game is close, they leave a lot of doubt on the field, and they seem like they still find a way to win these games.

It happened again Sunday night in Atlanta, and while the Chiefs (-3) still covered with the 22-17 win, it was the kind of game that will only fuel the doubters who want to see someone else win the Super Bowl this year.

For the third week in a row, Patrick Mahomes threw a braindead interception. This time it was in the end zone on a 17-play opening drive, so the over bettors were already pissed. The only explanation is Justin Simmons just has that Mahomes voodoo that Ty Law once had for Peyton Manning, because he did it to Mahomes again despite changing teams from Denver to Atlanta.

Fortunately, that was the only turnover the Chiefs had in this game as they couldn’t afford another. They even avoided the obligatory fumble for a change, and Mahomes did not take any sacks. I’m not sure what the snap counts were yet, but the Chiefs did start Wanya Morris at left tackle over rookie Kingsley Suamataia, who was benched in the fourth quarter last week.

However, Travis Kelce really is starting to look washed up as he had just 30 yards on 4 catches, and he hurt the team with a third-down drop in the fourth quarter when they tried to add to the small lead. Kelce is seeing more action in his commercials and new FX series than he does on the field these days.

You combine Kelce possibly falling off a cliff with the injuries to Hollywood Brown and running back Isiah Pacheco, and the Chiefs aren’t offering a whole lot on offense outside of Rashee Rice, who continues to look fantastic as the new No. 1 option. He had 12 catches for 110 yards and a touchdown, accounting for half of Mahomes’ 217 yards and the only gain longer than 17 yards for the offense on the night.

But the Chiefs keep trying to spread the wealth, get other people involved, and their short-yardage offense hasn’t been too impressive. For all the hype about their interior line, you’d think they would do a better job of just pounding it in there.

But the back-to-back three-and-out drives in the fourth quarter do look like an offense that just isn’t what it used to be. Kelce would have held onto that ball in the past. On a late 3rd-and-2, Mahomes looked like he had multiple options on crossing routes, but he chose Xavier Worthy, and the rookie just stopped running on the play to cause an ugly incompletion with 2:26 left. I don’t think JuJu would have done that two years ago, and I know Sammy Watkins wouldn’t have back in the day.

The offense kept giving Atlanta chances to answer with a touchdown the way Kirk Cousins delivered Monday night in Philadelphia. But despite getting three chances in the fourth quarter, Cousins couldn’t get the job done as the Falcons dealt with more pressure from Steve Spagnuolo’s defense, and some injured offensive linemen made it tougher as does Cousins’ lack of mobility. There was a 3rd-and-2 “scramble” in the game where any young, mobile quarterback would have picked it up, but that’s just not happening for Cousins at this stage of his career. But that play was a good example of why the stationary pocket passer is such a dying breed in the NFL.

The referees didn’t help Atlanta much either. Yep, the officials were back in the spotlight at the end of a Kansas City game, and it was more appropriate this time compared to last week against the Bengals. Down 22-17 with just over 4:00 left, Cousins tried to find tight end Kyle Pitts in the end zone, and the Chiefs got away with some obvious pass interference. No flag.

He arrived early, he hugged Pitts, and he didn’t try to play the ball. That should have been an easy call to make. Then on fourth down, I don’t think that one was interference, but some of course will say that because it’s the Chiefs and this is the weekly thing we do now. But again, that comes back to never blowing teams out and leaving this type of doubt.

Then when the Falcons got the ball back with 2:26 left, you saw the make-up calls in full effect from the refs. The Falcons got a phantom DPI flag on Trent McDuffie for 11 yards. Then there was a horse collar tackle penalty, which looked legitimate enough, and that was another 15 yards. So, the calls most certainly don’t always go to Kansas City’s benefit.

But that horse collar was the last time the Falcons moved the chains. I think they got caught up playing the clock with Mahomes on the other side, they wanted to score late as possible, and they forgot to call good plays that make use of Cousins’ abilities. They brought in Tyler Allgeier for a big 3rd-and-1 run, and the Chiefs stopped him for no gain. Neither team wanting to run the QB sneak is a problem in this situation.

The Falcons then tried another 4th-and-1 run with Bijan Robinson, but he was stuffed for a 3-yard loss with 51 seconds left. Ballgame. That’s four plays in a row where the Falcons didn’t bother to let Cousins throw anything more than a horizontal pass.

Mahomes then did a smart move on the first down by waiting several seconds before he finally took a knee. The other knees were much quicker, and he nearly injured himself on one, but he timed it just right to where the Chiefs didn’t have to punt the ball back.

The Chiefs have now won 9 straight games by a combined 54 points, an average margin of victory of 6.0 points per game. That’s the tiniest margin of victory among the 119 teams in NFL history who had a winning streak of at least 9 games.

It’s not like this is uncharted territory for the Chiefs. In 2020, they tied the NFL record with 7 straight wins by 1-to-8 points. They also won 10 games in a row that year by an average of just 8.9 points per game. Only the 1999 Colts with Peyton Manning (8.7) had a lower margin of victory for a double-digit game winning streak.

The Chiefs can take that record next if they beat the Chargers next week by a slim margin. That’s usually what they do to that team.

It’s usually what they do to everyone these days. But that run in 2020 with the close wins was answered with some playoff blowouts, including their 31-9 loss in Super Bowl 55. It also led to a 3-4 start in 2021 during some of the worst losses of the Mahomes era like 38-20 to Buffalo and 27-3 in Tennessee.

So, you do wonder if this team will hit some regression to the mean and start losing these close games or losing by bigger margins during this three-peat attempt. We have always talked about the Chiefs in the context of an elite offense, or in last year’s case, it was an elite defense. Through three games this year, they don’t particularly look elite on either side of the ball. In fact, they look a bit ordinary.

Still 3-0, but not the same spectacle as 2018-22. No longer must-see TV unless you’re into watching reruns of mediocre episodes of your favorite shows. Alas, with the way the rest of the league is playing to start this season, it still might be enough to make history in the end.

Ravens at Cowboys: Almost a Collapse

Is this what every big game in Jerry World is going to look like for Dallas now? The opponent piles up big plays and touchdowns, forcing Dak Prescott to just keep throwing for a ton of volume with no real shot at winning the game. It’s the third time in a row at home with the Packers in the playoffs, the Saints last week, and now the Ravens in this 28-25 final that was somehow a bigger blowout than that suggests, and still really close of a collapse for the Ravens.

Oh yes, I don’t think a win here absolves Baltimore that much for an 0-2 start. This game still reinforced some issues they have with holding leads as they lead the NFL in blown leads of multiple possessions since 2021. The Cowboys cut a 28-6 deficit into 28-25 and were just unfortunate that the defense couldn’t get them the ball back one more time.

The Ravens were explosive with big plays on the ground with Derrick Henry and through the air with Lamar Jackson completing 12 passes for 182 yards. But salting the game away was poorly done, Justin Tucker missed another easy field goal on a day where his new GOAT competition Brandon Aubrey nailed a 65-yard field goal, and you still question if the Ravens would ever dare use this strategy in January with 15 passes to 45 runs.

They absolutely should as I argued this offseason. But they have this obsession with turning Jackson into the passer he’s not and throwing the ball much more in those games when he’s clearly at his most comfortable in a game like this where he threw 15 passes and ran 14 times.

Jackson is now 21-1 against NFC opponents, because they just don’t know him the way his AFC foes (Chiefs, Steelers, Bills, etc.) do. It’s a unique challenge, and I’m not surprised the Cowboys failed it.

But it did get a little too close for comfort at the end there, and I’m not sure how Baltimore keeps letting this happen under John Harbaugh.

Chargers at Steelers: Felt More Like Ravens vs. Steelers

In 2011, Mike Tomlin’s Steelers faced Jim Harbaugh’s 49ers with Ben Roethlisberger struggling through a high-ankle sprain. Pittsburgh was a 3-point underdog, and Ben struggled with 3 interceptions in a 20-3 loss.

Fast forward to 2024, the second career meeting between Tomlin and Harbaugh, and the tables were turned. This time it was Justin Herbert coming in as a 3-point underdog on a high-ankle sprain against an elite defense. He ended up losing 20-10 and didn’t even finish the game.

It’s not a good formula for success, but incredibly, these quarterbacks started a combined 19-for-19 in this game, the best in any game since 1991. It was a ton of short stuff with Fields being safe and Herbert keeping that leg safe for as long as he could. Neither running game was getting it done against these tough defenses.

But in a 10-10 game in the third quarter, the floodgates opened up on the Chargers. Herbert tried to capitalize on Fields’ first turnover of the year after Bud Dupree came down with an interception that was tipped around several players. But Herbert was sacked, and he hurt himself on that one and couldn’t return to the game.

Keep in mind the Chargers already lost edge rusher Joey Bosa in this game. They’d later lose both offensive tackles (Rashawn Slater and rookie Joe Alt) as well. T.J. Watt was getting shut out by Alt, but once those floodgates opened in the third, the Chargers couldn’t stop it. Taylor Heinicke tried to finish the game for Herbert, but he took 3 sacks on 5 dropbacks (!) as the Steelers allowed minus-5 yards of offense in the entire second half.

Fields technically gets credit for a game-winning drive in this one to break the 10-10 tie early with Chris Boswell’s 38-yard field goal, but the Chargers sure did help that along with three penalties for 34 yards on third downs alone to extend the drive.

My hopes of seeing how Fields would perform in a game where a quarterback like Herbert could force him to score in the fourth quarter to win it were dashed when Herbert couldn’t go anymore. Frankly, they probably made a huge mistake in playing him at all this week since this was always a high possibility, and they have the Chiefs up next, a much more important divisional game with the Chiefs looking vulnerable too.

But Fields also put the game away with a 55-yard touchdown pass over the middle to Calvin Ausitn, who showed off his speed. It was the best game Fields played this year by far, and one of the best wins of his career with ease.

I’m still on board with thinking Russell Wilson should get a chance to start in this offense too, but the Steelers are seeing more of Fields each week and he is getting better. The points still aren’t really there, but it hasn’t mattered when you’re giving up 28 points in 3 games.

Eagles at Saints: Let Them Off the Hook

The dumbest team to win this week was definitely Philadelphia. It was evident early on that this was not going to be a high-scoring week for the Saints like the last few have been. Even after starting the game with a field goal, the Saints didn’t have a drive that gained more than 13 yards until the fourth quarter.

Incredibly, this game was still a 3-0 Saints lead going into the fourth quarter despite a total near 50. This is also because the Eagles kept passing up makeable field goals and failing on fourth down. Jalen Hurts had a frustrating game as he completed most of his passes for 311 yards, but he also had multiple turnovers, 4th-down failures, and took 4 sacks.

But it was a game without A.J. Brown that soon became a game without DeVonta Smith too after a dirty-looking hit, and Lane Johnson was also knocked out at right tackle.

But the Eagles did have Saquon Barkley, who rushed for 147 yards and two touchdowns. They also had tight end Dallas Goedert, who had a monster game with 10 catches for 170 yards. Goedert made the critical play on a 3rd-and-16 on the game-winning drive when he got free for 61 yards.

You had three Saints defenders run into each other on the play. A natural pick by the Eagles neutralized the first one, but then veteran corner Marshon Lattimore (No. 23) ran right into his teammate and that’s why Goedert was so wide open. It was like watching the early and mid-2010s Saints on defense.

The Saints are the only NFL team not to win a game after trailing in the fourth quarter since 2023. That was supposed to be a strength of bringing Derek Carr to New Orleans. He had a go-ahead touchdown pass to Chris Olave in this one with 2:03 left, but the Saints missed the crucial 2-point conversion that would have made it 15-7. Instead, the Eagles got the 8 points with Barkley scoring both with 1:01 left.

Carr still had time and a timeout to force overtime with a field goal, but similar to Hurts against Atlanta last week, he took a risk quickly and was intercepted to end the game at 15-12. After leading 15 straight scoring drives to begin 2024, Carr couldn’t even get the team to 15 points in this one.

It was Week 3 last year in Green Bay when the Saints blew a 17-0 lead and missed a clutch field goal that really destroyed their playoff hopes in the end. Let’s hope this game doesn’t set them on a similar path as this was a huge outcome in the NFC to get the Eagles to 2-1 while those teams like Dallas and San Francisco keep losing.

Texans at Vikings: Wiped the Flores with My MVP’s Offense

I guess all that’s left is for the Vikings to start 4-0 by beating up my Super Bowl pick (Packers) next week too. They already won three games in a row against teams I thought would beat them, especially the 49ers and Texans, and they’re only getting stronger after taking down Houston 34-7.

C.J. Stroud is usually very hard to intercept, but he had a pair in this game, he only led one touchdown drive, and he also lost 42 yards on 4 sacks. Defensive coordinator Brian Flores had them flustered, and I don’t think it would have made any difference if running back Joe Mixon was active.

Sam Darnold didn’t have all the big plays this week, but he was smart with the ball, effective, and he threw 4 touchdowns out of it. He’s holding the ball and still making good decisions. We’ll just have to see if he continues it into October or if he starts seeing ghosts again.

But between the schedule looking legit and the team controlling these games on their way to 3-0, I’m dumbfounded by this start. Just never seemed logical that a team that lost Kirk Cousins and Danielle Hunter would get better on both sides of the ball. Not to mention WR2 Jordan Addison has been out with an injury, and tight end T.J. Hockenson has yet to even play in 2024.

They could theoretically get better. But I’m still not ready to crown the Vikings as the new flash in the pan in the NFC. Probably should get on that Kevin O’Connell for Coach of the Year campaign though.

Broncos at Buccaneers: Not “Bo Picks” This Week

This felt like a trap game to me, so the only bet I had on it was for Bo Nix to throw a pick. He’s had multiple picks in both games, and you had to figure the Bucs would send some heat and get him to mess up in a game where he should have needed to score a fair amount to win.

But man, that was way off. The 0-2 Broncos went across country to pants the 2-0 Buccaneers in their building in a 26-7 final. Nix was in control early, he avoided the turnovers and sacks, and he may have led the Broncos in rushing once again if not for a backup (Badie) breaking a 43-yard run.

That’s an encouraging start. As for the Buccaneers, so much for the Baker Mayfield hype. After Aidan Hutchinson had 4.5 sacks of Mayfield for Detroit last week, Mayfield went down 7 times in this one as the Bucs are struggling up front. Mayfield completed 25 passes but for only 163 yards, which ties Joe Montana for the fewest yards ever in a game with exactly 25 completions. A little weird it came in a game against Denver as we just saw Denver set that record for the fewest yards in games with 26 completions (Nix in Week 1) and 27 completions (Russell Wilson in Week 1, 2023).

Maybe it’s just a Denver thing and it goes both ways. But definitely an upset I wasn’t ready for as the Bucs were just never a threat the whole game.

Bears at Colts: Comically Inept

I know Caleb Williams (2) and Anthony Richardson (6) came into this game with 8 starts between them as the youngest quarterbacks in the NFL. But I still found myself during the third quarter thinking of how this would have been Jay Cutler vs. Andrew Luck a decade ago, and that was just more interesting to me. Maybe these two are the future, but right now, they are raw as hell and I question how much help they’re getting from their play callers.

Both had multiple completions of 40-plus yards for the highlight tapes, but both missed easy throws and had multiple interceptions too. It’s a good thing for Richardson that Jonathan Taylor rushed for 110 yards and two scores to really put the game away. Williams ended up throwing the ball 52 times and gained 363 yards, but some of those yards were hollow like his Hail Mary completion to D.J. Moore before halftime that gained 44 yards but was stopped at the 1-yard line.

But the Bears again barely averaged 2.0 yards per carry, proving that the offensive line is dog shit. The Colts couldn’t stop the run at all in Weeks 1-2, but they had few problems in this one. Chicago’s play-calling in the red zone was also horrible, including a ridiculous sequence in the first half where they came away with no points.

Good on Williams to survive a game with this many throws and keep the sacks down to 4, but he’ll still have to do better than that. Still, I’m not sure Richardson is even capable of a game like this in the NFL. He’s throwing for 40 yards or giving you nothing with his arm right now.

Good on the Colts to see Laiatu Latu come up with a strip-sack in a big moment in the fourth quarter when Williams had the ball in a 14-9 game.

That’s why you draft someone like Latu the way Indy did in this offensive-driven class.

Lions at Cardinals: The Shootout That Wasn’t

I was really hoping for a shootout in this one, and it looked promising when both offenses marched right down the field for touchdowns. But there was very little after that as Kyler Murray struggled to throw for 100 yards until late in the second half when the Cardinals were still desperately down 20-10.

It could have been closer as the refs had a costly mistake at the 2-minute warning in the first half when it sure looked like the Cardinals produced a defensive return touchdown. But they tried to say the 2:00 warning hit, but it appeared the ball was snapped at 2:01. Huge turnaround there as the Lions turned that drive into a touchdown on a nifty designed lateral play from Amon-Ra St. Brown to Jahmyr Gibbs.

The Lions never scored the rest of the way, and it was just a matter of holding on as the Cardinals couldn’t run with James Conner, Trey McBride suffered a concussion, and Murray was floating a lot of bad passes to Marvin Harrison Jr. Just not an efficient offensive performance at all after the first two weeks were so good.

The Detroit defense looks improved this year, but it was still up to the offense to run out the clock in a 20-13 game. Goff found St. Brown on a third-and-12, then he iced the game with an 8-yard scramble.

But not many offensive fireworks to see here – keeping up the 2024 brand for the league.

Packers at Titans: Malik Willis Is Better Than Will Levis?

The revenge game is usually a tired narrative, but this time it really worked out. Not that Malik Willis should feel like the Titans did him dirty. He really struggled when he was with them, but in playing for Green Bay these last two weeks, he has done an incredible job of managing the game.

This week was even better than last as Willis passed for a career-high 202 yards on just 19 throws, and he ran for 73 yards and a touchdown. A true dual-threat performance. He also did it this week with much less help from his running backs on the ground unlike last week against the Colts.

To make things sweeter for Willis, he thrived while Will Levis continues to show that his version of “Big Dick Energy” is to play like there’s zero consequences for your actions just because you’re packing a hammer. Levis took 8 sacks and had 3 more turnovers as the Packers are getting splash plays galore to start this season under their new defensive coordinator.

With the hope that Jordan Love is close to returning, my Super Bowl pick of Green Bay is still looking decent. They know they have a viable backup option in a pinch with Willis, and we’ll see a return to more passing when Love gets back. The defense in the meantime just needs to keep this up as they’ve been very impressive in creating negative plays.

Giants at Browns: Please, Call More Plays Where Deshaun Watson Gets Sacked

Okay, the spread never should have been Browns -6.5, because this team is just not that good with the albatross that is Deshaun Watson at quarterback. He’s actually worse than Daniel Jones right now, and he was certainly worse in this game as he took a whopping 8 sacks.

The Giants fumbled the opening kickoff and gave up a short field touchdown to the Browns, but that Cleveland offense did almost nothing the entire rest of the game. Those fumbles were also the only thing keeping this from being a New York blowout as Danny Dimes did actually deliver on his end. He threw two touchdowns to rookie Malik Nabers, who looks very much like the real deal, and he cut down on sacks and turnovers in a big way this week.

I actually feel bad for Cleveland coach Kevin Stefanski as he knows he is likely stuck for Watson for a couple more years. That’s assuming it doesn’t cost him his job. I wouldn’t blame him if he purposely called plays with minimal protection and exposed Watson to more hits in the hopes that he gets injured, and they can keep him off the field that way. The guy was literally just accused of rape once again in a new lawsuit. He doesn’t get any benefit of the doubt, and I don’t know how this team will get through a season if they have to keep playing him when Jameis Winston would obviously outperform him.

Dolphins at Seahawks: Not the Most Unlikely 3-0 Start

Sure, most people probably didn’t see the Seahawks starting 3-0 this year. But with the schedule of quarterbacks, it was very reasonable. They’ve drawn Bo Nix in his rookie debut, a New England passing game that doesn’t want to exist with Jacoby Brissett, and then a break this week with Skylar Thompson starting for an injured Tua Tagovailoa (concussion).

We know Geno Smith and his weapons are good enough to go 9-8. Mike Macdonald just had to improve the defense, and who knows. But we won’t really start to see the defense tested until Week 4 against Detroit.

But this game, it was a 24-3 laugher as the Dolphins were literally showing their ass on the field.

Boy, that stunk. Miami was 1-of-12 on third down, and Thompson took 5 sacks before leaving the game with an injury. It could be Tim Boyle time in Miami next week, or maybe Tyler Huntley who just signed. At what point do we ask if Mike McDaniel and his staff are doing something wrong with their quarterbacks if they’re this brittle that you have to start three in three games? I thought that was a historic outlier when they did it in 2022, but it might happen again here.

All the speed in the world doesn’t mean a damn thing with the wrong player at quarterback.

Panthers at Raiders: Bryce Young Was the Problem After All

Guess I should have bet the house on Andy Dalton after all. He was my No. 1 prop pick this week, I picked the Panthers (+6.5) to win outright, but even then I never expected this 36-22 outcome that completely disproves the idea that Bryce Young had no protection or weapons in Carolina.

The problem was the shortcomings of the quarterback. Similar to last year when Dalton started a game in place of Young for the Panthers, he threw for over 300 yards. But this time he did it much more efficiently, and before you say it was just the Raiders, check again how Maxx Crosby and company fared against Justin Herbert and Lamar Jackson to start this season.

Dalton is now the only quarterback this season to throw for over 300 yards and 3 touchdowns in a game. Crazy, right? He got a career game out of Diontae Johnson with 122 yards and a touchdown. Even the running game showed up as Chuba Hubbard rushed for 114 yards.

The Panthers finally ended their 20-game streak of never taking a snap with a fourth-quarter lead. I don’t think Dalton can go too far with this team, but for one game against the Raiders, he was electric. About time we watch a veteran with more than a decade of experience just sling it on these defenses.

There’s almost none of that in the NFL right now, so I fully support Dalton starting more games while Young “sits and learns” from it all. But this game probably did nuke his trade value even more.

Next week: Cowboys-Giants on TNF? Oh, it’s really over for Dallas if they’re going to lose to Danny Dimes next. Saints-Falcons has some importance in the NFC South, Andy Dalton can stack wins against the Bengals, the Steelers can harass Anthony Richardson to start 4-0, the Vikings-Packers game could somehow be the Game of the Week if Jordan Love returns, and let’s just hope Justin Herbert can return for the Kansas City game. Bills-Ravens a big one on Sunday night I get to preview later this week. Another Monday night doubleheader (not a fan) too, and Seahawks-Lions definitely more interesting than Titans-Dolphins (no one cares).

NFL Stat Oddity: Week 1

~ Scott ~ 1 Comment

My 2024 NFL season predictions featured “Making Offense Great Again” (MOGA) as the central theme to this season. Things got off to a solid start on Thursday and Friday night (bad field in Brazil withstanding), but Sunday was a kick in the nuts.

Most quarterbacks did not pass for over 200 yards, and we still might have Malik Willis to (not) look forward to with Green Bay next week after Jordan Love’s MCL injury.

I’m getting a late start on this, and I may do a story on it early this week, so I don’t want to get into all the details here. But the offensive revolution might be on hold again unless we let the Saints play the Panthers every week.

So far, 9-of-15 games featured a comeback opportunity, which is very normal. But it’s not so normal to only get one game with a true fourth-quarter lead change from an offense with time left in an entire week of games. It’s not like I expect another to come from Jets-49ers tomorrow night, but we’ll see.

Overall, I enjoyed Week 1 of the 2024 NFL season. The prime-time games (mostly) delivered, which can make up for a rough Sunday afternoon.

Rams at Lions: Game of the Day

Our first overtime game of 2024 was not a classic, but it was a solid playoff rematch from last year with Matthew Stafford falling to 0-2 against his former team in Detroit.

This game had a lot of injuries as Puka Nacua didn’t play the second half, and the offensive line was banged up badly for the Rams. Not much room for Kyren Williams, who never broke a run longer than 9 yards. Cooper Kupp ended up with 14 catches on 21 targets to make up for the loss of Nacua, and it almost was enough for the night.

Jameson Williams had his breakout game for the Lions with 121 yards and a touchdown. But I’m going to say it’s not ideal when Amon-Ra St. Brown only has 3 catches for 13 yards, one of the least productive games of his career. Jared Goff was up and down, and he got away with a dropped interception in the fourth quarter.

It was a rough game, but credit to the Rams for coming back from a double-digit deficit to taking a late 20-17 lead on a Kupp touchdown. But with a chance to run out the clock the way the Lions did to them in the playoffs, the Rams failed. Goff got his second chance, and he didn’t waste it. The Lions settled for overtime with a 32-yard field goal, but that was the right call as we know Dan Campbell loves a fourth down attempt.

After the way Super Bowl 58 ended, you kind of long for the strategy and system there to return, but we’re stuck with the old modified format. Sure enough, the Lions turned into the most dominant rushing team in the world all of a sudden and ran it right down the Rams’ throat despite little success earlier in the game. The Lions had 7 carries for 60 yards on the 70-yard drive in overtime, finishing things off with a 1-yard touchdown run by David Montgomery to win it 26-20, which means they even covered the spread (Lions -4.5).

Tough loss for an undermanned Rams team that was right there again. But with Jordan Love injured in Green Bay, the Lions look to be in good shape relative to the rest of the NFC North right now.

Patriots at Bengals: Upset of the Week

I should have known better that this game was trouble when it had the biggest spread (Bengals by 8+) of Week 1 as the Bengals simply shit the bed to start the season more often than not. Blame Zac Taylor, blame Joe Burrow, but they keep doing this.

At some point, you have to acknowledge the facts. I don’t want to hear that Tee Higgins was out, or that they lost Tyler Boyd and Joe Mixon in the offseason. What happened to “watch out for Iosivas” this season? I don’t even want to hear that Ja’Marr Chase had food poisoning this weekend. Chase played and he caught all 6 targets for 62 yards.

The real question should be why not more targets? We saw what Matthew Stafford, a real gamer, did on Sunday night with an absurdly injured offensive line, missing his tight end (Tyler Higbee), and Puka Nacua left with an injury suffered in the first half. He targeted Cooper Kupp 21 times and did what he could.

If Burrow is as good as people say he is, then he needs to overcome some of these shortcomings more often. This was another poor, lifeless Week 1 performance from the offense, which had 224 yards and 13 first downs.

Now there weren’t many possessions in this game, and Tanner Hudson blew points with a fumble inside the 3-yard line, which sounds like old-school New England defense to me.

The Patriots grinded things out on the ground with Rhamondre Stevenson rushing 25 times for 120 yards. Jacoby Brissett only passe for 121 yards, but he didn’t have turnovers and he only took a single sack. It was just enough

But even when the Bengals got the ball back in a 16-10 game with 3:04 left at their own 10, that was a great setup for a heroic Burrow drive. Instead, it was a three-and-out, and despite having four clock stoppages, the defense couldn’t get the ball back. The Patriots ran out the clock.

But you have to do better than a 3-and-out that deep in that spot. Just terrible, and now we’ll see if they can work their magic against the Chiefs next week to avoid starting 0-2.

Panthers at Saints: Rout of the Week

Statistically, the Saints were one of the most dominant teams on the scoreboard late in the 2023 season, and that’s a good trait for a team to make the playoffs the following year. I’m not taking any victory lap yet after they smashed the god damn Carolina Panthers, but on a Sunday where most NFL teams didn’t look great, the Saints’ utter dominance in every facet was impressive.

Remember, the Panthers were supposed to be improved this year with a new coach (Dave Canales), new weapons, and Bryce Young no longer being a rookie. But wow, Young may be heading down the path of all-time bust if this continues.

The Saints scored 17 points before Young even completed a pass. That’s hard to do. That also made it nearly impossible for him to succeed in this game, but he never settled in and the Saints continued blowing the Panthers out until it was 47-10.

Thankfully, we’ll see the Saints play in Dallas next week, so there’s a great chance to see where this team really is. As for Carolina, yikes, this is about the worst way to start after a 2-15 season where you never took a snap with a fourth-quarter lead.

Cowboys at Browns: The Only Way to Make Deshaun Watson Worse Is to Give Him Tom Brady’s Voice

Here’s what the Cowboys-Browns game featured:

  • Dak Prescott, the highest-paid quarterback in NFL history at $60 million per season after finally getting his extension Sunday morning despite never reaching the NFC Championship Game.
  • Deshaun Watson, who made the largest $230 million theft in NFL history when he fleeced the Browns in a 2022 trade for a fully-guaranteed contract despite more than two dozens accusations of sexual misconduct.
  • Tom Brady, the highest-paid broadcaster in NFL history at $37.5 million, more than double the next closest person despite zero experience in the broadcasting booth.

Is it any surprise the game turned out to be a piece of shit?

Prescott had one of his most forgettable games in the Mike McCarthy era. After a good start, his special teams basically put up the last 19 points with a punt return touchdown and four field goal drives that covered a whopping 42 yards between them.

And he was still easily the best quarterback on the field. The only way you could have made Watson worse was if you gave him Tom Brady’s voice. But I’m not going to get into why I think Brady has the completely wrong voice for this job that he stole from a more deserving Greg Olsen.

But Watson again looked terrible, and while you can respect a good Dallas front, the sack merchant was ever present with multiple turnovers and an inability to sustain offense. Even worse, Watson’s arm just looked shot. I don’t know how Kevin Stefanski doesn’t just bench him and go with Jameis Winston, but this continues to be the worst trade in NFL history and the biggest sunk cost you’ll ever see.

Ezekiel Elliott looked youthful and strong compared to washed-up Watson. It’s a miracle the Cowboys were ever a 2.5-point underdog in this one.

Jaguars at Dolphins: The One Where Tyreek Got Arrested First

You can’t make this stuff up. Tyreek Hill went from nearly going downtown with police officers, under arrest for a verbal altercation after a traffic violation, to catching the longest touchdown reception (80 yards) of his NFL career to spark a comeback win by Miami.

The Dolphins were very sluggish, down 14-0 to the Jaguars, before Hill took off for the end zone and even recreated the handcuffing incident he had in the morning. Watching that footage play out after watching the new Netflix movie Rebel Ridge (it’s great) the night before is crazy.

This is the third article tonight I’m writing about this incident, so I’m a little tongue-tied about it. But I really thought I was looking at AI images when I opened my phone Sunday morning and saw Hill handcuffed. Only the multiple videos and tweets from Adam Schefter clued me in this was real.

But what a major disappointment for the Jaguars, who went scoreless after halftime. They had a 17-7 lead and were 13 yards away from the end zone late in the third quarter. But Travis Etienne fumbled at the 3-yard line, one of the weekend’s biggest turnovers, and that completely changed the game. A play later, it was Tyreek for 80 yards.

The big plays won it for Miami, and kicker Jason Sanders redeemed himself for an earlier miss with a 52-yard field goal at the buzzer to win 20-17. Miami never led in the game before that final snap.

Curious to see where things go from here with the team’s biggest nemesis, Buffalo, coming into town Thursday night.

Titans at Bears: The Comeback Win I Sorta Predicted for Caleb Williams’ Debut

One of my favorite picks this week was Chicago getting a clutch, comeback win in Caleb Williams’ debut to start helping out Matt Eberflus’ league-worst record in such games.

Well, it happened. It didn’t happen in any way I imagined, but it was a classic throwback to the 2006 Bears and the way they came back to beat the Cardinals on Monday Night Football with multiple return touchdowns.

The Bears were awful offensively, trailed 17-0, and only finished with 148 yards of offense. The preseason is not the regular season, and Caleb was 14-of-29 for 93 yards. On the bright side, he only took two sacks and threw no picks. Jusitn Fields probably loses this game if given the chance.

But Williams was not doing much to help the comeback effort. The Bears blocked a punt for a touchdown. They also turned a strip-sack of Will Levis into a field goal drive that netted 1 yard.

But it ended up being one of the hardest games I’ve ever had to catalogue for 4QC/GWD purposes:

  • Chicago trailed 17-10 to start the fourth quarter and had a drive going with Williams.
  • The 44-yard drive ended with a 50-yard field goal to make it 17-13.
  • Levis coughed up the ball, setting up that 1-yard drive for a field goal to make it 17-16.
  • Technically, you just had two 4QC/GWD attempts, and the offense chipped in two field goals.
  • Four plays later, Will Levis forced a pick-six, and there goes the go-ahead score for Chicago at 22-17.
  • Williams completed a 2-point conversion pass to D’Andre Swift to make it 24-17, an important 7-point cushion.

It’s clearly a team fourth-quarter comeback. It’s clearly not a game-winning drive since the pick-six is not a drive. The 2PC was important though, and that makes me wonder if I should be counting it. But I’m not going to. At the same time, I’m giving Williams the 4QC win since without the two field goals from the offense, the pick-six doesn’t win the game for Chicago.

It’s a messy situation, and it’s all the fault of Levis. Why in the hell would you force this pass up on 3rd-and-6 with the lead? Just take the sack and live another drive.

That is seriously some 2001 or 2006 Bears bullshit. Also, of course Levis couldn’t make up for it on the final drive, getting picked again.

Williams did not impress, but Levis disappointed even more as he should be further along than this. I’m really not sure about that 2023 draft class outside of C.J. Stroud.

Texans at Colts: My MVP Gets It Done in Wild Week 1 Game

C.J. Stroud is my MVP pick this year, but how about those new additions in Houston? Stefon Diggs caught both of Stroud’s touchdowns, but it was running back Joe Mixon who had the huge game with 159 yards and a touchdown on the ground. The Colts had few answers for this offense, especially in must-stop situations.

But the player I thought was the biggest wild card this year is Anthony Richardson, and he did not disappoint with his “boom-or-bust” playing label. He was only 9-of-19 passing, but he had three different completions for over 50 yards, including a 60-yard touchdown pass to Alec Pierce that was one of the longest and most impressive touchdown throws I’ve ever seen in the NFL:

He even slid before throwing it, so he didn’t fully step into it. Incredible play. Too bad he misses some of the easy ones, so if he can correct that with experience, then the Colts should have something here.

At least offensively. The defense could not stop Houston in the fourth quarter despite the offense making it a 2-point game twice. The Texans responded with touchdowns twice, including a play I loved the decision for from coach DeMeco Ryans.

The Texans were up 22-20 and faced 4th-and-2 at the 2-yard line with 4:45 left. Why kick the field goal to go up 5 points and risk losing on a touchdown in the final minute? Go for the jugular, which they did, and Diggs caught his second touchdown to make it a 2-score game again.

But even after Indy scored to again make it 29-27, the four-minute offense went to work with a couple of first downs, including a 3rd-and-11 conversion for 12 yards from Stroud to Nico Collins, a Colts killer.

It’s only one game, but again, this is why I’m big on the Texans to be a new rival to the Chiefs. If you get Stroud playing like this, he’s someone who could outduel Mahomes in a fourth quarter and keep the ball away from him in a one-score game.

Green Bay, my Super Bowl pick, almost broke my heart Friday night with the sloppy performance and Love injury. But the Texans, who were my Green Bay equivalent in the AFC to possibly derail Kansas City’s three-peat, gave me some confidence with this performance.

But let’s keep it going and get even better.

Steelers at Falcons: The Six Field Goal Mike Tomlin Special

I ended up (regrettably) watching most of this game. Basically, it was the kind of Chicago Bears win you would have thought Justin Fields could have enjoyed there. Pretty lousy offense, Fields flirting with disaster on fumbled snaps to start the game, bad third-down sacks as the coaching staff didn’t trust him, and the defense and special teams were fantastic for the Steelers.

T.J. Watt and kicker Chris Boswell basically won the game for them. We know the last Mike Tomlin playoff win was 18-16 on six field goals against the 2016 Chiefs. He kind of did it again as Boswell made six field goals and most of them were very long.

Watt was a beast again, and Kirk Cousins looked very rusty and slow in a new offense after his Achilles tear. Not a good debut at all for him, and it’s as if Arthur Smith never left. Hell, he was in the building calling multiple runs on 3rd-and-long in this game.

But this is how the Steelers win. Keep it close and hope that a fumble happens when a receiver is running in motion for Atlanta. That really did happen, and of course, Watt was the one there to pounce on the ball in a big moment.

But Cousins had his chances to be the hero as Fields – no shocker – couldn’t put the game away. But he was picked with 2:34 left and then sacked by Watt on the final snap to mercifully end this one.

The Steelers have some compensation incentives to not keep playing Fields, and I think we’ll see Russell Wilson eventually. But this kind of offense isn’t going to beat that many teams in the NFL without superhuman efforts from Watt.

He might be up to the task though, especially if the idea that linemen playing closer to the line instead of leaning back is a point of emphasis to cut down on those illegal formations.

However, I’m still puzzled as to why they traded Diontae Johnson. This passing game is George Pickens or bust right now.

Cardinals at Bills: The Almost Upset of the Week

I said in my Week 1 predictions that I could easily see Arizona winning this as an upset and referendum on Buffalo getting rid of Stefon Diggs. But even when the Cardinals went up 10, I wasn’t that worried as I noticed the Cardinals had the ball for 13 of the first 15 minutes. Buffalo just needed the ball.

Josh Allen was facing a no-name defense, so he didn’t need big-name receivers. He had plenty enough around him, but I was surprised that Dalton Kincaid only had an 11-yard catch. But I was confident in rookie Keon Coleman (51 yards led team in receiving) having an impressive debut against this secondary to alleviate some concerns after the team let the Chiefs get Xavier Worthy at No. 28. That could still be a huge regret, but Coleman was always going to produce this week.

By game’s end, Buffalo even pulled ahead in time of possession, so no big deal. But the Cardinals still made this interesting thanks to a 96-yard kickoff return touchdown in the fourth quarter. I’m not a big fan of the dynamic kickoff so far, but it is producing better field position and already a touchdown like that.

But in a 31-28 game, the Bills nearly botched this badly. They had a chance to put the game away but Allen was stuffed on a 3rd-and-2 run. Instead of going for the 4th-and-3 at the Arizona 21 at the 2-minute warning, they kicked the short field goal and settled for a 34-28 lead with Arizona having all three timeouts to drive for the winning touchdown.

To make it worse, the Bills’ kickoff went out of bounds, so Murray only needed 60 yards. He’s done far harder before, including against Buffalo in 2020 (“Hail Murray”). When you have Allen, you should be going for that fourth down. The 6-point lead is one of the worst places to be. At least if it was still a 31-28 game, you can count on Arizona to probably kick a field goal instead of go for a fourth down.

But the Cardinals had their chances, and it’s my understanding rookie wideout Marvin Harrison Jr. was left wide open on the drive for a potential touchdown, but Kyler didn’t see it or didn’t think to throw to him. The drive ended with Murray throwing incomplete on 4th-and-7 at the Buffalo 29 with 26 seconds left.

Crisis adverted – barely. But the Bills will need to clean some things up in Miami this week, and Allen reportedly has a left hand injury that he suffered on one of his touchdown runs. Let that sink in.

Vikings at Giants: Wrong Improbable New York QB Breakout Year

I expected both of these teams to be terrible this year, and I still believe that’s highly possible. But one of my worst picks this week was the Giants as the upset special at home. I got a little too focused on what happened in 2022, ignoring 2023, and the fact that Daniel Jones is just not the answer. At least with Darnold, we haven’t seen him fail as many times, and he has some solid talent around him in a pass-friendly offense.

Darnold started this game on fire, then the team had little reason to score more as Jones wasn’t getting the job done. But this pick-6, while a very athletic play by the defender, is a good example of why this season needs to be Jones’ last in New York.

And what the hell were those jerseys? Alas, Andrew Van Ginkel is apparently the master of the fast interception.

Raiders at Chargers: Can Jim Harbaugh Go 5-1 in the AFC West?

Coach Jim Harbaugh made his NFL return with a win, 22-10 over the Raiders. He came here to make Justin Herbert’s life easier, and so far, it worked. The Chargers had just 11 first downs, the fewest in the Herbert era. They gave Herbert 170 rushing yards while he only threw for 144, another rarity.

The passing game is a work in progress with these young receivers, but how about J.K. Dobbins rushing for 135 yards in his team debut? He even ripped off a 61-yard play. Great to see after injuries robbed him in Baltimore from more success.

But mission successful in not blowing a two-score lead in the fourth quarter. However, the Chargers got some help from new Raiders coach Antonio Pierce, a hire I was not supportive for. In his first game without the interim tag, he made a big mistake in a 16-10 game with 7:15 left. The Raiders faced a 4th-and-1 at the Los Angeles 43 and decided to punt.

I can understand the old-school philosophy there as that’s what you used to do in those situations. But with under half a quarter left, you’re looking at maybe one more possession before you start relying on all your timeouts. You also have to remember that converting 4th-and-1 is in your favor (> 50%). I think punting was a big mistake, and you have to think it won’t be the last time we see this from Pierce, the big flaw in hiring a defensive-minded coach who only sees the old ways of the game he played.

To make it worse, the defense he relies on gave up a 92-yard touchdown drive thanks to the big Dobbins run. Gardner Minshew was picked to end it, but he’s probably still their best choice for a quarterback for the rest of the year despite only 10 points in Los Angeles.

But with the way the Raiders and Broncos look, who says Harbaugh can’t steal a game against the Chiefs and possibly go 5-1 in the division to fuel a playoff berth as a wild card? That was one of my main thoughts on the Chargers all along, but after Week 1, I feel even better about it.

Broncos at Seahawks: Sean Payton on His Week 1 Shit Again

The Seahawks are going to have some elite defensive stats in this one, the debut and first win for coach Mike Macdonald. But for the second year in a row, Sean Payton went into a Week 1 and watched his quarterback put on a dink-and-dunk performance that was literally for the record books.

Fewest Passing Yards by Number of Completions in NFL history (1950-2024)

After Russell Wilson had a record-low 177 passing yards on 27 completions against the Raiders last year, rookie Bo Nix did him one better and had just 138 yards on 26 completions. That’s the fewest passing yards in a game with more than 25 completions in NFL history.

This was rough, and Nix could have easily had more than the two picks he threw as Seattle dropped several. But it’s not like he had any real help out there other than his defense coming up with a pair of safeties, something you almost never see. But Nix ended up leading the Broncos with 35 rushing yards, including a late touchdown that made it mildly interesting at 26-20.

Geno Smith had some mistakes, but he also had a 34-yard touchdown run that he couldn’t possibly have done last year when he was playing hurt. When it came to icing the game with a late third-down pass to deny Nix getting a shot at a game-winning drive, Smith found Tyler Lockett for 9 yards to end things.

Enough to be encouraged about for Seattle, but we really need to see this defense play a quarterback who knows what they’re doing. Granted, there may not be a ton of those in the league right now. But even Jacoby Brissett will be a step up in competition in New England next week.

Started to get a sense of how Nix completed over 77% of his passes at Oregon last year to set an NCAA single-season record. He’ll take literally any short completion you will give him no matter how fruitless the gain is. But you can’t end his career after one game. He’s just a rookie, albeit an older one.

Commanders at Buccaneers: It’s Probably Not 2012 in Washington Again

I guess the hope all along with Washington repeating its 2012 season success with Robert Griffin III would be a surprisingly good season from Jayden Daniels. While he did make me very happy in his debut with a 2-touchdown performance on the ground (+2200 odds), it wasn’t the kind of passing performance you wanted to see. Terry McLaurin (17 yards) barely did a thing. More than half of Daniels’ 184 passing yards went to running backs.

But he ran the ball 16 times for 88 yards and will be viable at the goal line. He just better tighten that helmet as it came loose a couple of times and nearly cost him that second touchdown. I’d be quite bitter right now if that happened.

But Dan Quinn’s defense was no real improvement on last year when they were the worst in the league under Ron Rivera and Jack Del Rio. Baker Mayfield picked them apart with 24-of-30 for 289 yards and 4 touchdowns. Mike Evans caught two scores and still has WR1 skills.

Tampa had one of the most thorough and complete performances of any team this week. Not that it should be that surprising against a rebuilt Washington team with a long way to go. But it’s a very good start with Detroit up next.

Next week: Are we peaking early with Bills-Dolphins on Thursday night? Saints-Cowboys could be interesting, or it could be a blowout. Either way, we get to test the Saints right away against a non-Carolina opponent, so that’s great. Bengals-Chiefs loses some luster with the New England upset, but it’d be typical NFL for Cincinnati to win that one to avoid an 0-2 start. That Chicago offense isn’t ready for prime time, so good luck in Houston. Ditto with Kirk Cousins going to Philly on his least favorite day of the week.

NFL Stat Oddity: 2023 Wild Card Weekend

~ Scott ~ 3 Comments

And that’s why we don’t call it Super Wild Card weekend, because not much was super about that 3-day trek of games. Sure, we saw dazzling playoff debuts for C.J. Stroud and Jordan Love, the Detroit Lions finally won a playoff game for the first time since 1991, and the fraud department was busy sending home teams who didn’t stand a chance of going the distance (Dolphins, Steelers, Eagles), or it exposed the defenses who beefed up their stats against the weakest opponents (Cowboys and Browns) and folded when it mattered most.

On those fronts, it was a strong week of action. But if you told me every home team would win except for Dallas, the team that won 16 games in a row at home and usually in dominant fashion, I might not have believed you.

I definitely wouldn’t have believed you if you said there wouldn’t be a single lead change in any game after the 12:00 mark in the second quarter of Browns-Texans on Saturday.

But that happened too. The other 5 games were all wire-to-wire wins, putting this postseason on pace for some history in that department if teams don’t start showing up with better efforts.

I’m still getting over the flu, but a good night of sleep is one hell of a dose of self-medication for that. I feel good enough to share some thoughts on these 6 games before I go back for more sleep and to start preparing data, previews, and picks for the divisional round, my favorite weekend of the NFL year.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Browns at Texans: When the Young Kid Puts Down Old Yeller

We might look back one day and laugh at the time Joe Flacco, days before his 39th birthday, was a road favorite over C.J. Stroud in a playoff game. But as someone who picked Cleveland to win a tight one, I’m using this game as a good lesson on what to take away from a recent meeting before a playoff rematch.

The season-long trends mattered more than the recent trends where Flacco was dealing (albeit with a high interception rate), and Stroud was kind of mediocre down the stretch outside of a great job in Indianapolis to get into the playoffs.

But Houston’s ability to scheme receivers open, especially at home, combined with Stroud’s already advanced skills at throwing off platform and giving his guys chances proved to overwhelm a Cleveland defense that I feared was a paper tiger all along. In the playoffs, you aren’t facing Joe Burrow on a bad calf, or a slumping Ryan Tannehill, or getting Matt Canada fired again in Pittsburgh, or feasting on Arizona rookie Clayton Tune.

There was just something fishy about a defense that allowed at least 22 points in every road game this year, and you can’t blame that all on their league-leading 37 turnovers as that has been a problem all year for Cleveland. Blame the offense on the Pittsburgh loss for Deshaun Watson’s 2 turnovers getting returned for touchdowns, sure, but that was not the norm for them.  

Turnovers ended up being a story in this game, but Houston was already up 24-14 in the third quarter before Flacco had his back-to-back pick-sixes that crushed any hope left for Cleveland. But things were already looking bad before that as Myles Garrett contributed more offsides penalties than any impact plays on defense.

Both offenses were hitting plays early as this one was on pace for over 1,000 total yards. But after Kareem Hunt scored his second touchdown to give the Browns a 14-10 lead, the Texans answered back with a 1-play drive that saw backup tight end Brevin Jordan leak open for a 76-yard touchdown. Houston led 17-0 with 12:00 left in the second quarter and we literally never saw another lead change the rest of wild card weekend.

The Browns were stopped on 3 straight drives to end the half as pressure got to Flacco. When these teams met in Week 16 and Cleveland won easily, there were multiple lessons we should have taken away from that game and applied to this one:

  • Obviously, having Stroud back at quarterback was huge, but Houston also didn’t have top pass rushers Will Anderson and Jonathan Greenard in Week 16. They were back and Anderson had 1-of-4 sacks of Flacco.
  • Pressure got to Flacco on that fateful first pick-six, and he tried to throw the ball away, only to have it returned 82 yards for a touchdown by Steven Nelson.
  • Cleveland’s lack of a running game in Week 16 was a problem again as they only produced 17 carries for 43 yards this time. Hunt was stuffed on a key 3rd-and-1 run, which led to Flacco’s next pick-six on a 4th-and-2. If the running game is adequate, he’s never throwing in that desperate situation and blowing the game open at 38-14.
  • Flacco overcame his running game woes in Week 16 with huge plays to Amari Cooper, who had 265 yards. But he injured his heel that game and we didn’t know how he’d play in his return game. He finished with 59 yards and was clearly not 100%, and that didn’t help Cleveland’s cause.

Cooper’s decline of 206 receiving yards is the 5th-largest drop in a playoff rematch in NFL history by a receiver.

Flacco started the game well, but the cumulative pressure got to him, and the double whammy of picks was a game destroyer, making the fourth quarter pretty forgettable as Houston won 45-14.

But you did see the value in this game of having a young quarterback with mobility as Stroud could evade pressure and feather the ball to his receivers with accuracy. The barely mobile Flacco tried to throw one away and it ended up going back the other way for a game-changing touchdown.

I still stand by the data that says there’s no correlation between two team’s turnover margins and what their turnover margin will be in a playoff matchup against each other. Even at extreme levels like the gap in this game, the turnover-prone team usually beats the turnover-averse team.

But there will be no improbable Flacco Super Bowl run this year, and the Cleveland defense is in fact not even close to being a legendary unit. The history made here is that Stroud only needed a half to tie the record for touchdown passes by a rookie in a playoff game with 3.

Dolphins at Chiefs: Still Wish It Was Colder?

My favorite bet for the entire week was Dolphins under 19.5 points. When they usually can’t get to 20 points on the road against good teams in fair weather, how were they going to do it in the 4th-coldest game in NFL history at minus-4 degrees at kickoff?

One 53-yard touchdown pass to Tyreek Hill was all the Miami offense had to muster. The Chiefs were excellent on defense as that was the only 20-yard play they allowed in the game.

When Mike McDaniel thought a 22-20 win over Dallas was enough for his players to tell the media to (with all due respect) “fvck off” about his team’s record against winning teams, that’s what my reaction was all year long to people who thought this team was a serious Super Bowl contender and not just a paper tiger.

McDaniel has now lost 10 straight road games to playoff teams.

All I can add on this loss is that it’s the kind of performance that should make Miami hold off on giving Tua Tagovailoa a record-setting contract extension, because you know that’s what his agent will be seeking as the next quarterback due to get paid. I’m not saying they have to part ways, but I’d be very careful about making that deal happen. He just doesn’t get the job done in games like this, and guess what, Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes don’t look like they’re going anywhere in the AFC anytime soon. Same with Lamar Jackson, and oh yeah, now you have to think about C.J. Stroud in Houston too.

Tua’s QBR of 15.8 made him the only quarterback under 40.0 this week.

But enough about Miami. I want to talk about this Kansas City performance the rest of the way. I thought Patrick Mahomes played very well, and I would not have guessed he’d have that kind of night based on how bad the first 2 snaps looked. But one big 3rd-and-10 conversion to Travis Kelce, who held on that time, and the Chiefs were off to a strong start. Mahomes had a few big scrambles too, and he even cracked his helmet on the frozen night and did not miss a play.

Mahomes did not take any sacks, and the only turnover was an obligatory fumble late in the game by CEH with the game out of reach for Miami. I thought Mahomes had a good read of the blitz from Miami, and he threw the ball away when he had to. The only drawback was the red-zone performance where the Chiefs settled for 4 field goals, looking similar to Week 17 when they kicked 6 field goals against the Bengals. That can catch up with you against a better team than Miami like they’ll play going forward. It also helped that the Dolphins were so injured on defense, which is why I think they just kept blitzing Mahomes, which is usually a no-no.

Throwing some deep balls on third downs to Mecole Hardman, who has the worst ball-tracking skills ever, is another dangerous tactic I don’t want to see the Chiefs continue this postseason against better teams. But they had no problem beating Miami without playing their best.

Now we get a real road game for this team and against a Buffalo team that arguably plays them better than anyone. It could be another classic.

Just glad we don’t have to entertain the Dolphins as contenders anymore this season.

Packers at Cowboys: Doomsday in Dallas Used to Mean Something Different

My preseason Super Bowl pick was Dallas going on a revenge tour, beating the 49ers in San Francisco in the title game, and ultimately losing to the Ravens in the Super Bowl. Well, Baltimore fans better get nervous, because I literally never pick the correct Super Bowl winner, and now my loser is gone after a shocking first-round exit at home in a 48-32 loss.

In Mike McCarthy’s best shot yet to become the first coach to win a Super Bowl with multiple teams, he instead became the first coach to lose to a No. 7 seed. We know the Packers always gave the Cowboys fits during Aaron Rodgers’ tenure, but we might have to expect more years of misery at the hands of Jordan Love after this game.

Right from his first pass on the opening drive, Love came out smoking. In fact, Green Bay’s decision to receive after winning the toss was one of the best coaching decisions all weekend. You need to set the tone when you play a front-running team that is used to leading like Dallas. All the pressure was on Dallas to win this game as the No. 2 seed, and Green Bay was immediately able to take a lead and build that pressure after consuming half the quarter.

Love was masterful in his first playoff start on the road, completing 16-of-21 passes for 272 yards and 3 touchdowns. He had no sacks or turnovers, and his favorite receiver was the open one. Jayden Reed led the team in receiving categories this year, but he had no catches in this game. Christian Watson was the expected No. 1 coming into the season, but he is always injured. He returned this weekend and had only a 9-yard catch against a defense he broke out against in 2022 when he scored 3 touchdowns. It was Romeo Doubs with the dominant game as he had 151 yards and a touchdown. Rookie tight end Luke Musgrave also broke wide open for a 38-yard touchdown as Matt LaFleur was having a great time roasting his predecessor.

I’ve said for 20 years since those pesky 2001-04 Patriots teams won 3 Super Bowls that it can be really advantageous to have a group of talented receivers with no clear No. 1 receiver. That was when the Patriots played dink-and-dunk passing with Troy Brown, David Givens, David Patten, and Deion Branch. Mix in your backs and tight ends, and defenses couldn’t go into games on a weekly basis and figure out who to focus on or draw more attention to with double teams. Technically, it was Troy Brown early on in that run and Deion Branch later, but any of them could get open and do something after the catch on any given play.

The 2023 Packers are kind of enjoying that advantage right now with this young group of receivers, including Doubs, Watson, Reed, and Dontayvion Wicks. Throw in a veteran back and Dallas killer like Aaron Jones (118 yards and 3 touchdowns), and the Packers had a variety of ways to make Dallas look silly.

Similar to the Browns, the Cowboys had some paper tiger warnings on defense since they padded their stats against awful offenses like the Jets, Panthers, Patriots, and those sack merchant lines for the Giants and Commanders (twice each). You saw Brock Purdy shred them in San Francisco. You saw Jalen Hurts at least put up one great game against them when the Eagles were playing better earlier in the year. Even Geno Smith went into Dallas and put on a passing clinic and 35 points, but that usually doesn’t happen to Dallas in Dallas.

But the Cowboys were rough on defense, and they were not prepared for a team with a quarterback who came in red hot like Love. Since the Dallas offense is usually so efficient, the Cowboys also faced the fewest drives of any defense this year, so their per-drive numbers were not elite this season.

But I’m not sure anyone imagined a 48-32 game in favor of the Packers. Worse, it was 27-0 at one point after maybe the worst start to a game in Dak Prescott’s career. You knew it was going to be a long day when he had 0 passing yards in the first quarter for the first time in his career. From the opening drive you could see he was just a little off with CeeDee Lamb after they were so good down the stretch this year. Then Jaire Alexander beat Brandin Cooks to an interception, and the Packers only needed to go 19 yards to make it 14-0.

The Cowboys continued to stubbornly stick with the run on early downs, and Prescott was not getting into a rhythm and converting enough third downs. Down 20-0 at the 2-minute warning, that’s when disaster struck as Dak did not see Darnell Savage on a pick-six that was returned 64 yards to put the Packers up 27-0.

Dallas was fortunate to get a touchdown on the final play of the half after it clearly looked live that there was a false start or something funky pre-snap. But nothing was called, and Jake Ferugson caught the first of what would be three touchdowns on the day.

But the Packers are not the Chargers. They weren’t going to blow a 27-0 lead. This might have been a little more interesting had Dallas pulled off a double touchdown score, but the Cowboys were held to a field goal to start the third quarter, making it 27-10.

Fox’s Greg Olsen put it perfectly. A comeback like this isn’t possible if your defense can’t get stops. I’ve written about this several times now since Super Bowl 51, including this 2018 post about Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady. It’s not like Brady is the only quarterback who could make a 25-point comeback in a playoff game. He just may be the only one who is lucky enough to have his defense hold a juggernaut offense with the MVP at quarterback to no more points the rest of the way and to even force a short field on a fumble.

I’m not deflecting the blame from Dak in this game. He blew it. But it’s also true that Dallas scored 32 points over its final 7 drives, and we might have had a game here if the Dallas defense didn’t allow 3 straight Green Bay touchdown drives to start the second half.

That blown coverage on Musgrave made it 41-16 with 16:27 left in the game, basically asking for Dallas to make the greatest comeback in history at that point. After turning it over on downs, the Cowboys watched the Packers convert a 4th-and-2 for another touchdown to make it 48-16 with 10:23 left. Goodnight, Irene. They couldn’t even get the little 4th-down stop with minimal pressure on both teams at the moment.

But I must say, for being down 32 with just over 10 minutes left, the Cowboys came closer to 8+8+8+8 then you’d ever want to see as the leading team. They didn’t even recover an onside kick. They just used their timeouts, scored quickly, and got the pair of 3-and-outs on defense they needed earlier in the game.

This was an incredible one-handed catch from CeeDee Lamb in the end zone away from Dallas going for 2 to make it 48-40 with just over a minute left. Sure, they’d need to then recover an onside kick and score another touchdown with a 4th straight 2-point conversion just to force overtime, but getting to 48-40 with an onside chance after it was 48-16 not that long ago? That would have been an impressive rally attempt.

But the game should have never gotten that out of hand in the first place, and that is why I wouldn’t be surprised if McCarthy gets the axe for this game. It’s also going to be hard to ever trust Dak in a big game after he had his best season, they were healthy for this game, and he and the offense just laid a turd for the first half.

Green Bay getting hot at the right time behind a quarterback playing outstanding ball is good stuff. We don’t see that too often anymore in the NFL playoffs, so we’ll see if he can slay the San Francisco dragon that Aaron Rodgers never could. He already got past the Dallas dragon that tripped up Brett Favre in the 90s.

But these Cowboys are not the Cowboys of the 90s. The fact that Jerry Jones keeps hanging onto those glory hole days and thinking every year is going to end up like that again is why he must annually be so disappointed when his team flops in the playoffs.

But I have to say, even by Jerry’s standards, this flop was the worst one yet, because things were breaking for them this year.

Rams at Lions: Puka Gets a Tug and No Happy Ending

Of all the games this week that should have been high scoring and come down to the final drive, this was the one to pick. In the end, we got an exciting first half with 38 points and both quarterbacks dealing, and then we got 3 field goals and still not a single lead change after halftime as Detroit held on for the 24-23 win.

Yeah, it’s awesome that the Lions finally won a playoff game. But excuse me for being a little bummed out that this game didn’t have more touchdowns or a better dramatic finish. This was the matchup for it with these underwhelming defenses, and they lived up to it early with all the scoring drives. Detroit scored 3 straight touchdowns to begin the game.

I thought Matthew Stafford played very well through the pain of a cut on his hand that left him bloody. He may have saved the game on the final play of the first quarter by converting a 3rd-and-16 with the Lions already up 14-3 and humming along. But some of the red-zone struggles and difficulty of hooking up with Cooper Kupp proved fatal to the Rams in this one. It also didn’t help that Kyren Williams kept leaving for health reasons as the league’s leader in rushing yards per game only put up 61 yards in Detroit. Stafford must have really felt at home, trying to carry a team with minimal rushing support and a defense that was getting shredded.

But by the end of the night, the Lions barely rushed for more yards than the Rams (82 to 68). Both offenses were 3-for-9 on third down. I thought fourth down might play a bigger role in this game with Dan Campbell being much more aggressive than conservative Sean McVay, but both teams were 1-for-1 on fourth downs.

The Rams can probably kick themselves for outgaining the Lions by 91 yards in a game with zero turnovers and still losing 24-23. But that’s what happens you go 0-for-3 in the red zone at scoring touchdowns and kick 3 field goals under 30 yards.

Were any of the field goals the wrong call by McVay? No, they were all 4th and 6 or longer. They were the right decisions at the moment. My beef with McVay in this game is a common one I’ve had for him going back several years now: He blew his timeout management in the second half again.

Stafford took a sack 3 snaps into the third quarter and McVay wasted a timeout on a 3rd-and-11. Save that shit and take the 5-yard delay penalty. The Rams ended up throwing an incomplete pass and punted. He did it again in the fourth quarter before a 3rd-and-8 deep in his own end, down 24-20. More defensible than the first one, I still don’t think it is worth it most of the time in that situation. The Rams ended up converting by a screen pass to Puka Nacua, who was awesome.

You know Nacua is a real one when he can make Kupp look like a secondary receiver in this offense. Puka was outstanding in his playoff debut with 9 catches for 181 yards and a 50-yard touchdown.

Unfortunately, Nacua was also involved in the play of the game that will be remembered most by Rams fans. On 3rd-and-14 at the Detroit 44 with 4:20 left, the Rams were in a tough spot. A conversion is hard there, but at least they could get some yards and try a reasonable go-ahead field goal. Stafford went for the big play to Nacua, and his jersey was grabbed from behind and the pass fell incomplete. Receivers usually get that call but there was no flag this time.

The Rams really had no choice but to punt from their 44, and they were down to just 2 clock stoppages because of the piss-poor clock management earlier. The Lions are good in these situations because they are aggressive under Campbell, and they were able to run out the clock after 2 first downs on pass plays. Amon-Ra St. Brown had a great playoff debut too and got over 100 yards on the night with his 11-yard catch to seal the game.

Goff had a couple of scary plays in this game that serve as reminders for why you don’t like to trust him in big games. But overall, he played well, and the Lions did enough to survive this one. Now they get to host the Buccaneers with a shot at the NFC Championship Game very much in play as they are a home favorite this week.

From no playoff wins in 31 seasons to possibly an NFC Championship Game appearance or more? Crazy stuff for Detroit.

Steelers at Bills: The Standard in Postseason Scoring

The downside to the Steelers making the playoffs has become the quick exit that almost feels inevitable. Pittsburgh lost its fifth playoff game in a row, meaning Mike Tomlin has not won any playoff games in the last 7 seasons (2017-23).

This is also the fifth time under Tomlin that the Steelers allowed at least 31 points in a playoff game while forcing no takeaways. The only team with that many playoff games since the 1970 merger is the Denver franchise, which has done this 6 times. But the Steelers have done it 5 times since 2007.

  • Pittsburgh is the first team in NFL history to allow at least 31 points in 5 straight playoff games.
  • Pittsburgh has allowed 202 points in its last 5 playoff games, the most in any 5-game span in playoff history, surpassing a record they already held with 187 points in 2016-21.
  • Pittsburgh has scored at least 16 points in 29 straight playoff games, extending its NFL record in that area but that’s not making up for the recent blowouts.
  • Pittsburgh is the only NFL team with an active 5-game losing streak in the playoffs where it failed to cover the spread in each game.

Pittsburgh’s best hope in this game was for it to be played during whiteout conditions with heavy snow and wind, increasing the likelihood of randomness like fumbles. But after watching it play out at its rescheduled time on Monday in fairer cold conditions, I’m not so sure Buffalo still doesn’t win comfortably.

Not when Josh Allen had 1 fe”r rushing yard than the 75 yards the duo of Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren combined for. The Steelers were supposed to be the more physical team that leaned on their backs, but James Cook outrushed them too with 79 yards on 18 carries for Buffalo. Most of Allen’s damage was on his 52-yard touchdown run, which featured some really poor tackling from the Steelers, a common theme on the day.

Without T.J. Watt available, the Steelers struggled to force any splash plays against the Bills, who did not even flirt with a turnover. No real dangerous throws from Allen, and they had no fumbles to lose. Since 2017, the Steelers are now 2-13-1 when Watt plays fewer than 50% of the snaps in a game.

It is hard to decide which side of the ball hurt the Steelers more in this one. The offense came out playing scared and taking almost no deep shots to the wide receivers. Pittsburgh’s only 20-yard play in the game was a 33-yard gain by tight end Pat Freiermuth, who fumbled at the end of the play and was fortunate it was ruled to go out of bounds because it sure looked like Buffalo recovered it in bounds.

George Pickens was less fortunate on a fumble that set up Allen for a 29-yard touchdown drive that took one play as he found Dalton Kincaid wide open. When it looked like the Steelers were going to cut the 14-0 lead in half, Mason Rudolph made his worst throw in the red zone to waste Pittsburgh’s longest drive (88 yards) with an interception. Allen made his big touchdown run from there to build a 21-0 lead, a big early hole being the common lead in every Pittsburgh playoff loss during this streak.

A blocked field goal saved this from total blowout territory as that led to a 33-yard touchdown drive before the half ended. But even that sequence showed just how poorly prepared the Steelers are for these big games. The Buffalo punter was injured on the blocked field goal. Instead of using his timeouts to try to make Buffalo punt in the last minute of the half, Tomlin sat on his timeouts and only called one on 2nd-and-17 with 2 seconds left? What good does that do? Allen took a knee to end it. After a first-down sack, the Steelers should have been using those 3 timeouts to get a punt block ready. Just poorly managed all around.

After Rudolph threw his second touchdown of the game to Calvin Austin to make it 24-17 in the fourth quarter, this got a little interesting. But the Bills easily drove for quality play after quality play on a 70-yard drive that ended in another touchdown after awful tackling from Minkah Fitzpatrick and company led to Shakir scoring from 17 yards out to make it 31-17 with 6:27 left.

That’s game. A missed 27-yard field goal by the Bills after the Steelers turned it over on downs is the only reason we aren’t talking up 34 points as the new piss-poor scoring standard for this defense in the postseason.

I mentioned at the beginning that Tomlin hasn’t won a playoff game since the 2016 season. If he returns next season for Year 8 of his playoff win drought, it’ll only be the fourth time a team has done that with a coach in the Super Bowl era. Jim Mora (Saints) and Marvin Lewis (Bengals) infamously never won a playoff game in their career. Don Shula’s 8-year drought in Miami (1974-81) led to a Super Bowl loss in 1982, but that was a different league back then. You didn’t have 7 teams making the playoffs in each conference, and he had multiple seasons where he finished 10-4 and didn’t even make the tournament.

The Steelers shouldn’t have been expected to win this game, especially without Watt, but at what point does hanging onto a streak of non-losing seasons prevent the team from ever getting back to real Super Bowl contention? This is purgatory. There’s no high draft pick and quarterback fix to come out of this season, and it’s not like the effort was all that respectable here. Hell, even Miami lost 34-31 and covered the spread with Skylar Thompson at quarterback in Buffalo in the wild card round last year. They at least forced turnovers.

SOS is supposed to be a distress call for help, but when it comes to the Steelers, it’s like the organization is content with the same old shit.

Eagles at Buccaneers: My Apologies to the 1986 Jets and 2022 Vikings

I just want to start by saying I apologize to the 2022 Vikings for comparing the 2023 Eagles when they were 10-1 to your team. The Vikings actually finished with 13 wins and put up a fight in their home playoff loss to the Giants, which came down to the final drive.

I also have to apologize for comparing the Eagles to the 1986 Jets, the only other team to start 10-1 and not get to 12 wins. The Jets rebounded in time for the playoffs to beat the Chiefs in the wild card round and gave a superior Cleveland team hell in the divisional round in a double overtime loss.

After scoring a record number of points (35) for a Super Bowl loser last year, the Eagles scored a season-low 9 points in a 23-point loss to the Buccaneers in the wild card round, completing their full collapse. We will have a new NFC champion again. Only the 2013-14 Seahawks have repeated since 1999.

They knew it was going to be tough going in without A.J. Brown, but DeVonta Smith stepped up with 8 catches for 148 yards. But the running game was held to just 42 yards on 15 carries after the Eagles were the only team to smack the Bucs for 200 yards in Week 3, which feels like an eternity ago now.

Philadelphia’s tackling also made Pittsburgh’s look good. Was there a tackling ban in Pennsylvania passed over the weekend? This was an atrocious effort from a team that looked like it gave up on the season. Jason Kelce’s career possibly ending on a sour note like this is sad.

My favorite bet in this game was the under (43.5), which hit to wrap up 2023 as a season where the under was 15-5 on Monday nights. Loved that bet all season, but I sure did not expect to see Baker Mayfield throw for 337 yards and 3 touchdowns after he could barely move in Carolina in Week 18. But he looked good, and he’s done something Tom Brady couldn’t: win a playoff game with Todd Bowles as his coach.

But you knew it wasn’t Philly’s night when the Brotherly Shove was stopped on a 2-point conversion in the second quarter when the Eagles got a penalty to put the ball at the 1-yard line. The Bucs got extremely low on the play, and the Eagles didn’t get their normal push, and it helped when you send a linebacker high at Jalen Hurts and grab him by the facemask. That definitely should have been a penalty, but now we’ll wait to see if the league makes any move against this team’s favorite play in the offseason.

I thought for sure we’d get only our second game with a game-winning drive opportunity out of this one, but that went to shit in a hurry late in the third quarter. Down 16-9, Hurts tried too hard on a 3rd-and-6 and found himself retreating to his end zone despite the line of scrimmage being at his 14. Instead of throwing the ball away, he dug the hole deeper and took a safety due to the penalty for intentional grounding, the right call.

That made it 18-9, then two plays later, some more of that horrific tackling left Trey Palmer open for a 56-yard touchdown. I would have tried the 2 to make it 26-9, a three-score game, but the Eagles already looked so beaten down that 25-9 was just fine.

But that little sequence killed any chance of a close finish. Mayfield even hit another blitz with a 23-yard touchdown to Chris Godwin for good measure to make it 32-9.

This is the kind of loss that could get Nick Sirianni fired just one year removed from a Super Bowl loss. Hell, they had the best record in the NFL in Week 12 not even 2 full months ago.

The data always said 10-1 was a mirage. The eye test never passed for this year’s team. But to fall this far so quickly, even I am a little surprised this happened.

The NFC truly does love a flash in the pan.

Next week: I think they saved the best game both days for the night slot with Chiefs-Bills the best choice to close the weekend. After all these runaway games, it sure would be nice to get an epic divisional round much like we got in 2021 when every game was decided at the end with two of the matchups the same (GB-SF and BUF-KC). We’ll see what happens but there is usually at least one road upset in this round.

NFL 2023 Wild Card Predictions

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

We’ve reached the NFL playoffs, and for what feels like the fourth or fifth weekend in a row, I’m writing this after 3 AM and feeling sick. This time it’s the full-on deep cough and a slight fever, so I may have picked up the flu or something this week. A lot of stuff going around out there.

But I felt better earlier this week when I put in over 12,000 words on playoff previews, I may have gone a little overboard with that, and I wanted to share those links since they are my full previews these days. I no longer have to prepare games just for my blog while maybe only doing 2 games in detail like back in the day. But you tend to forget just how big a 6-game playoff slate is until you start writing these out. But it’s one of my favorite things to do each year, and I like to try holding back on the better teams to have more material for future rounds assuming they make it. So far, the No. 7 seed is 0-6 against the No. 2 seed since 2020, but you never know when the Cowboys and Bills are involved.

We also have some extreme weather in the AFC games I’m most invested in this week, so that could be weird. For the love of Christ, the Chiefs better not even think of running cutesy trick plays in that -30 wind chill. The obligatory fumble will be plural.

This Week’s Articles

NFL Wild Card Predictions

I’m posting my full grid now that I post on Twitter late on Saturday nights. Not a ton of picks outside of receivers and TD scorers this week.

Browns at Texans: Very interesting game. I think Amari Cooper and Nico Collins both cool down from their most recent explosive performances (Cooper in Houston, Collins in Indy), and I really like David Njoku to be a big target for Joe Flacco, who I expect to play well again. But he is volatile and I like him to throw a pick. But in the end, I’m going to trust Cleveland’s defense to make enough plays to escape this one with a win.

Browns 24, Texans 20

Dolphins at Chiefs: I’ve called the Dolphins a paper tiger since October. Now they play in a freezing cold game against a defense that already held them in check in Germany. The Dolphins are also more banged up. Look, I think the Chiefs are in for a tough postseason and I picked them before the season to finish No. 3 and lose in Buffalo in the divisional round. I’m not backing down from that right now when we’re this close to making it happen. But the Chiefs better hope they don’t make the deadly mistakes with ball security to give the Dolphins a chance.

Chiefs 20, Dolphins 14

Steelers at Bills: Steelers are 2-12-1 when T.J. Watt doesn’t play at least 50% of the defensive snaps since 2017. He’s out this week, but what kind of game is it going to be when there could be several inches of lake-effect snow? I think this really favors Pittsburgh to keep it closer than it normally would be, and the Steelers have scored at least 16 points in 28 straight playoff games, the record. Even Mason Rudolph has scored 16 points in 12-of-13 career points. I don’t think the weather allows the Steelers to get blown out here.

Bills 21, Steelers 16

Packers at Cowboys: Could be a fun one if Jordan Love is on point, but I think Dallas is too good at home and will shred that Joe Barry-coached defense. But we’ll see if Love has any of that Aaron Rodgers killer instinct in him that always seemed to come out against Dallas (not so much other teams, though).

Cowboys 31, Packers 23

Rams at Lions: Should be the best shootout of the weekend. I think the Lions pull it off and finally end that playoff drought at home. Quality run defense to put the game on Stafford’s shoulders, and I think Dan Campbell’s 4th-down aggression is the difference this time as Sean McVay is very conservative. That will pay off in a cumulative effect over the night.

Lions 30, Rams 27

Eagles at Bucs: The turd of the week, who is even healthy? Jalen Hurts and Baker Mayfield are playing, right? A.J. Brown maybe not? I still have to do prop picks for this game and that’s not going to be easy if we don’t get some clarity on these injuries. But while I don’t think Tampa is a good playoff team or even worthy of being in the tournament, I can’t go through a whole weekend after a regular season like that and only pick the favorite to win each game. So, Tampa is my upset pick (feel better about this if Brown’s ruled out) as I think the Eagles complete their collapse from 10-1 to getting bounced in Tampa in the wild card round.

Bucs 20, Eagles 16

NFL Stat Oddity: Week 14

~ Scott ~ 7 Comments

Week 14 in the NFL was a lot to take in. Or a little if you were caught watching either of the two games that were scoreless at halftime. Seriously, we go 4 years without a scoreless first half and get two in one afternoon? That second one almost went the distance to 0-0 in regulation but thank God for Nick Mullens (said no one ever).

The Cowboys blew out the Eagles, who lost back-to-back games against their main NFC contenders by 20 points. Sounds pretty 2022 Vikings to me.

The Bills won another game in Kansas City after an egregious offside penalty on the offense wiped out one of the coolest, game-winning type of plays you’ll ever see. But that doesn’t mean it wasn’t a dumb penalty, Kansas City.

Did offense feel worse than usual this weekend? We still have a MNF doubleheader that does not look good, but there has yet to be a quarterback to post a 75.0 QBR this week. Most weeks have multiple players in the 80s and 90s. The highest was Matthew Stafford (73.4) in a loss in Baltimore. This is so unusual that it hasn’t happened in any week of the regular season since 2006, the first season we have QBR data for. Maybe Tua or Jordan Love puts an end to that tonight, but Monday night shenanigans, the MetLife playing surface, eh, we’ll see.

There were 7 games with a comeback opportunity this week, though for the second time this season, no team came back to win from 10 points down. The Steelers and Chiefs almost did that, but again, we’re seeing arguably the darkest patches of the Mike Tomlin and Andy Reid eras in Pittsburgh and Kansas City. Losing back-to-back home games to 2-10 teams is brutal (and historic), and the Chiefs are on a 2-4 slide and just lost wire-to-wire in back-to-back games for the first time with Mahomes at quarterback.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Bills at Chiefs: Toney, Toney, You Gotta Go

Another week, another Kansas City loss where the Chiefs gave up two early touchdowns, lost the turnover battle, a receiver royally screwed up a lead-changing play, and Patrick Mahomes’ last gasp on 4th-and-long fell incomplete.

Then there’s the latest officiating controversy.

But I don’t think it was that controversial. The irony of it was Kadarius Toney scored the touchdown and it would have been his most memorable play had the schmuck not lined up offsides.

Offensive offsides, who even does that? But before that ending, it was another game where the Chiefs played disappointing, mistake-filled football. They let the Bills dominate early with passes to their running back (James Cook) while Mahomes seemingly can’t throw a screen to CEH without disaster happening like an opening-drive interception in Buffalo territory.

Rashee Rice provided the obligatory fumble late in the third quarter when the Chiefs were driving in a 17-14 game. They did tie the game in the fourth quarter, but a quick 3-and-out with a chance to take the lead wasn’t good, then Josh Allen continued to show why he’s been so successful in Arrowhead with a go-ahead drive for a field goal.

The only problem with that was a total mismanagement of the clock, and you would think Buffalo more than any team would be observant of the clock against the Chiefs. They are 13 seconds away from going 4-0 in this building since 2021. The Bills had a chance to set up the field goal as the final play, but Allen threw 3 low-percentage balls to receivers that all fell incomplete and stopped the clock with the Chiefs keeping 2 timeouts. It made no sense. Even the last throw before the 2-minute warning was barely caught for a 1 yard to run clock.

So, Mahomes had a full 1:54 in a 20-17 game, which is an eternity for him to get a go-ahead touchdown, let alone a field goal. But four plays into a good looking drive, it happened. Mahomes found Travis Kelce over the middle and he somehow had the stones to lateral the ball across the field to Toney, who went the final 24 yards for what should have been a huge go-ahead touchdown and possibly the game-winning score to end Buffalo’s season.

It will go down as an all-time great play that never counted. It was aesthetically pleasing, in a big moment, risky as hell, and a huge reward. But it’s all for naught cause the biggest clown on the roster was lined up offsides.

Is that going to be called 100% of the time on the offense? No, I don’t think so. Is it ever called on the offense? Apparently 11 times this year, so less than once a week. I understand the argument that it was inconsequential to the play, but I also think the strong reaction from the Chiefs, namely Mahomes and Andy Reid, is way overblown. Just don’t line up offsides and it’s not a penalty. How hard is that? Does a veteran really need a warning for this late in the fourth quarter? I could see if he was repeatedly doing it in the game, then the officials should inform him of that. But there’s just no excuse to line up in the wrong spot on a play where the clock wasn’t even running.

Like the other Kansas City drives this year, they fell apart after the big play was not made. Think of the Toney drop against Detroit that could have easily set up a game-winning field goal, the MVS dropped touchdown against the Eagles, the no-call for DPI on MVS against the Packers last week, and now this offsides wiping out a touchdown.

It’s like the Chiefs get so frustrated from these plays that they forget to finish the drive. Namely, the offensive line forgets as the protection turning to dog shit has a lot to do with these drives fizzing out a couple plays later. Mahomes had to throw away passes under pressure, and just like that, it was 4th-and-15. Here we go again.

Mahomes’ arm was hit just as he threw the ball and it came out funny with no chance of ever being caught. Another game over after Mahomes threw incomplete on a 4th-and-10+. That’s happened in all 5 losses this year. It happened in exactly one Kansas City game in 2018-22 and that was Super Bowl 55 with a lopsided score.

The Chiefs are 8-5 and barely hanging onto the No. 3 seed right now. It is looking likely that they will have to play a road playoff game this year. I guess it is possible for the Chiefs to win out (12-5), then hope Miami loses multiple games to Cowboys/Ravens/Bills to finish with a No. 2 seed or better. Then they’d have to hope No. 1 (Baltimore) chokes in the divisional round, which isn’t impossible of course. But it’s not looking good. At this point, the Chiefs might get shut down by New England and lose to Bailey Zappe next week. Jake Browning with the Bengals is a possibility too.

Mahomes’ strong reaction to the ending was weird to me. It almost felt like he was letting out years of frustration with calls like this, maybe even going back to the Dee Ford offsides in the 2018 AFC Championship Game loss, another rare offsides call that had nothing to do with the play at hand. Hard to think of any team in between 2018-23 with bigger offsides penalties than the Chiefs with these two. Then with the way last week’s game ended in Green Bay, it’s just been a frustrating season for Kansas City and I think he chose to take it out on the refs instead of strangling Toney, who really needs to be cut. He provides no value and has almost single-handedly cost them games against the Lions and Bills this year.

But not knocking out the Bills (7-6) when you had a chance could prove fatal. Imagine if this propels Buffalo to make the playoffs and this ends up being a 7/2 or 6/3 wild card matchup. That would not be good for the Chiefs, who struggle with Buffalo as much as any opponent.

But we’ll see how things go from here and if Buffalo can build from this with a tough remaining schedule. The Chiefs only have 4 games left to improve, but it feels like both sides of the ball are declining right now.

Trading away Tyreek Hill and trading for Kadarius Toney is epic team mismanagement. That’s almost as bad as getting Trent Richardson for Andrew Luck in Indy when he literally needed any other good player besides a running back.

This is the first time since 2017 where the Chiefs failed to have a lead in back-to-back games. Those were the ugly losses to the Giants (12-9 in overtime) and Buffalo (16-10). Do you know what that slide led to? Andy Reid gave up play-calling duties to offensive coordinator Matt Nagy, who is the OC now in 2023.

Might need a new plan here, because this isn’t working. I made this prediction before Week 7 when the Chiefs were 5-1, and it was tongue-in-cheek at the time. But my goodness, this is where the Chiefs are seemingly every week now. A game-winning play is botched, the offensive line falls apart, and there’s Mahomes throwing a miracle ball on 4th-and-long to end the game.

This is who Kansas City is in 2023 and I don’t see it changing this time. And that is why the frustration is boiling over on the field now.

Eagles at Cowboys: Another NFC Stomping

The big NFC round robin is complete now, and the 49ers come out looking like the best team after stomping the Cowboys (42-10) and Eagles (42-19) this year. The Cowboys and Eagles split their matchups with Philadelphia winning 28-23 at home and then Dallas returning the favor with this 20-point win.

So, only 1-of-4 games ended up being a competitive 60-minute game. But this is what I was saying about the Eagles the last few weeks. They rely on winning close games this year while the 49ers and Eagles blow teams out. They are your classic “win big, lose close” teams, and they just blew the Eagles out by 20 points in back-to-back weeks.

The crazy thing with this game is that the Eagles never even scored a touchdown on offense. Their only touchdown was Jalen Carter returning a fumble of Dak Prescott 42 yards for a score in the third quarter, the last time this looked like it might be a game.

Prescott said as much after the game that he didn’t have his best night, and he certainly didn’t. The Cowboys left plenty of points on the field, and we did at least see how awesome their new kicker is as Brandon Aubrey improved to 30-for-30 on the season at field goals with makes from 60, 59, 50, and 45 yards, making it look easy in the process. Yes, this has “misses first time all year in a crucial playoff moment” written all over it, but he was money in this game, becoming the first kicker to make from 59 and 60 in the same game.

But Prescott did not hurt his MVP case. In fact, he’s the outright leader now after he threw for 271 yards and 2 touchdowns, notching a 12th-striaght home game with at least 27 points scored (third-longest streak in NFL history).

Dallas was in control and moving the ball well from the opening drive. The Eagles were too sloppy with the ball. Jalen Hurts, who didn’t even pass for 200 yards again, lost a fumble on his team’s opening drive. A.J. Brown had a nice game, but he also fumbled on the team’s opening drive of the second half at midfield, down 24-6.

Down 27-13 late in the third quarter, Hurts threw for 3 yards on 3rd-and-11, then a 1-yard completion to DeVonta Smith on 4th-and-8. Those are failed completions. Finally, any chance of an improbable 17-point comeback was snuffed out when Smith fumbled a completion in the red zone with 6:38 left. Game over. The Eagles’ top 3 skill players all lost fumbles in this one.

But as I said last week, the 49ers and Cowboys could have beat the Eagles by 50 points each in these games, and there’s still a good chance Philadelphia gets the No. 1 seed, the bye week, and gets to host the rematch with these teams, who are now all 10-3. The Eagles don’t play any good teams the rest of the way. The Cowboys have to go to Buffalo and Miami the next two weeks, tough road games against contenders. The 49ers have to host the Ravens on Christmas, a tough game.

But we can save talk about future games for down the road. It’s just an eyesore on Dallas’ resume to lose that game to Arizona as a 13-point favorite, because that could be the one that costs them a No. 1 seed. Strong performance here by the Cowboys, and maybe the back-to-back beatings puts some doubt in the Philadelphia locker room.

But chances are the Cowboys (and 49ers) will have to do it again to Philly in January.

Rams at Ravens: Unexpected Hero in Unexpected Overtime Classic

Lamar Jackson is now 19-1 against the NFC in his career, but this may have been the toughest win to earn yet. I really did not see this coming as the Rams were a 7.5-point road underdog, and we’ve seen the Ravens destroy some NFC teams at home this year like the Lions (38-6) and Seahawks (37-3). My thought on Lamar against the NFC is that those teams just aren’t familiar with playing him yet and it takes some experience as he is such a unique talent.

But the Rams scored on 4-of-5 drives to start the game, had no turnovers on the road, and Matthew Stafford showed up for this one. Both quarterbacks had 3 touchdown passes and Stafford was only 6 yards away from matching Lamar with a 300-yard passing game. Jackson also rushed for 70 yards.

It was a tight, enjoyable back-and-forth game with plenty of points – exactly the kind of experience we almost never get in 2023. The Rams took a lead on a safety at one point when a bad snap was kicked out of bounds by Jackson to avoid a touchdown going on the board. But the defense made a stop, and Jackson put Justin Tucker in range for a 33-yard field goal to regain the lead with 11:17 to play in a 23-22 game.

A couple drives later, Stafford threw a touchdown, but the Rams failed on the 2-point conversion, leading 28-23 with 4:41 left. Not many comeback drives in situations like this in Lamar’s career, but he pulled this one off just when it looked like things were falling apart at the end with a 3rd-and-17. Zay Flowers was left open for a 21-yard touchdown with 1:16 left, and the Ravens made the crucial 2-point conversion this time to take a 31-28 lead.

Stafford has plenty of experience doing this, and a big play to Cooper Kupp moved the ball to the Baltimore 22. But the Rams were not able to get any more than 4 yards from there, so they settled for a game-tying field goal and overtime.

The Ravens went 3-and-out in overtime, which we don’t penalize enough for the team that goes first on offense, because now all the Rams had to do was get a field goal to win. But the Rams also went 3-and-out, and Sean McVay let an inexcusable delay of game penalty happen on the drive to make it 3rd-and-9. You get timeouts in overtime; you should use them there to avoid that mess.

The Rams punted, and while you usually don’t expect much on these plays anymore, the Ravens made them pay with Tylan Wallace returning the punt 76 yards for a touchdown. It almost had a Steve Young vs. Vikings quality to it with Wallace stumbling after 3 broken tackles, but he housed it for only the 4th game-winning punt return touchdown in overtime history:

And that is the shocking way the Ravens moved to 10-3 and the Rams dropped to 6-7. A much better game than you could have expected from this one. This is the second non-offensive game-winning score of the year. The first was T.J. Watt’s fumble return touchdown from Deshaun Watson in Week 2 in Browns-Steelers.

Vikings at Raiders: Almost 0-0

I thought 6-0 last week in New England in decent weather was bad, but 3-0 indoors in Vegas?

At some point, I stopped being mad at the lack of scoring and was rooting for history to be made with a scoreless overtime tie, which has never happened in NFL history. It may have happened without a quarterback change by the Vikings, which led to the game-winning drive as Nick Mullens finally strung together some completions after Joshua Dobbs could not.

We were really close on this one:

  • The last scoreless tie in the NFL was in 1943 between the Giants and Lions before overtime existed.
  • Vikings-Raiders is only the 11th game since 1940 with no more than 3 combined points.
  • It is the NFL’s first 3-0 game since the 2007 Steelers beat Miami in the game where the punt stuck in the ground. Pittsburgh’s score came with 17 seconds left, so this game was the longest an NFL game had gone scoreless since this one in 2007.
  • Almost 30 years to the date, the Jets and Redskins played a 3-0 game on 12/11/1993 with the Jets scoring in the first quarter. That makes Vikings-Raiders and Dolphins-Steelers the only games with fewer than 6 combined points in the salary cap era.

So, we didn’t get the record, but we can say this is the 2nd-longest game to last scoreless since 1978.

Given the shitshow the Vikings put on against the Bears their last timeout, Kevin O’Connell has to explain why things are broken right now, and Dobbs may be out of the starting lineup next week now that a division title is within reach.

Justin Jefferson returned from his hamstring injury in this game, but he unfortunately didn’t last long after taking a nasty shot to the back. But the Vikings still have weapons. Certainly enough to do better than 9 punts on 11 possessions. The game only had 1 missed field goal (by Minnesota) and the Raiders turned it over 3 times in the second half, including a big fumble in the red zone by Hunter Renfrow, and Aidan O’Connell was immediately intercepted after Greg Joseph’s 36-yard field goal provided the only points at the 2-minute warning.

I’m not sure Mullens is the answer going forward, but it doesn’t look like Dobbs is. I’m also not sure you can hire an interim coach who loses a home game indoors 3-0 like Antonio Pierce just did.

And oh joy, both teams will be in island games this week with the Raiders playing the Chargers on Thursday night and the Vikings on Saturday against the Bengals.

Seahawks at 49ers: Drew Locked Up Some Millions

Not much was expected from this game with Drew Lock starting for an injured Geno Smith. The spread moved above 14 points, but I did like Seattle to cover that as divisional rematches can be weird.

This one was a little weird as Lock played a competent game and the Seahawks were within striking distance. But the 49ers averaged 9.9 yards per play on their way to 527 yards as the studs were not being stopped on this day. Christian McCaffrey kicked it off with a 72-yard run on the first snap, though he was taken out for a breather and never scored a touchdown despite having odds in the -350 range to do so this week. Ouch.

Deebo Samuel had another huge game with 149 yards and a touchdown. Brandon Aiyuk (126 yards) was also over 100 yards, and George Kittle caught a 44-yard touchdown, because of course he did. Where was that on Thanksgiving when I needed 40 yards from him to win $2,500?

But anyways, it was the Kittle touchdown two snaps into the final quarter that shifted everything as Seattle was only down 21-16 before that score. Lock was then intercepted twice, and the 49ers ran out the clock for another win that all but wraps up this NFC West race.

But Lock probably made himself a few million in the process as a competent start against what looks like the best team in the league could keep him around for years to come in a league starved for quarterbacks.

Yet it is Mr. Irrelevant who continues to break football minds as he had another big game with 368 yards on just 27 attempts. It wasn’t the big YAC plays this week like last week in Philadelphia too as Purdy dropped some balls right in the basket in big moments. He’s legitimately very good in running this offense, and while a lot of quarterbacks may be in his shoes, you look around at the 0-0 scores on Sunday and the other offenses that struggled to find the end zone at all like the Eagles, and you have to say Purdy is a remarkable story.

Lions at Bears: No 12-Point Comeback This Time

I think you have to be worried if you’re a Detroit fan that this thing is about to spiral out of control. No, they still haven’t lost back-to-back games yet this year, but losing out and losing the division title to Minnesota is now a real possibility.

The Lions needed the miracle comeback of the season to erase a 12-point deficit against the Bears at home just a few weeks ago. This performance was even worse in Chicago as the Bears did what they did on offense again, but the Lions had no strong finish this time. In fact, things only got worse with the Lions going scoreless on their 7 possessions in the second half, including a fumble, two failed 4th downs, and an interception on their last 4 drives.

It was an aborted snap by Detroit late in the third quarter that led to a short field for the Bears, who turned it into a touchdown and 25-13 lead. Fittingly, it was another 12-point comeback opportunity, but Jared Goff just didn’t have it in the elements this day. The running game was solid with David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs both going over 60 yards, but when it came time for a 4th-and-1 conversion, Gibbs was stuffed in the backfield for a 4-yard loss.

The Lions were taking their time on the ensuing drive in a 28-13 game, and Goff eventually threw incomplete on 4th-and-17 with 5:16 left. More pressure on him on the next drive led to an interception on 4th-and-24 with 2:31 left to seal it.

Detroit played much better in the first matchup when turnovers put them in a hole. This time, the Bears more or less controlled play from the opening kickoff, something we have rarely ever seen in the Matt Eberflus era.

The Lions have now allowed at least 26 points in all 5 games since the bye week. Without a home win against Denver next week, this is going to get very dicey with games against the Vikings and a trip to Dallas left.

Colts at Bengals: Nice System in Cincinnati…

I hope Jake Browning’s thumb is good because this is getting really interesting in Cincinnati. For the second start in a row, Browning completed at least 75% of his passes with at least 275 yards in a win against another playoff contender in the AFC.

He didn’t take any sacks against the Colts, and his only real mistake was a pick-six that was a receiver error as he handed the ball to the defender on a silver platter. That also proved to be Indy’s final score of the game as the offense only mustered one touchdown drive in a 34-14 loss. It was only the second time all year the Colts failed to score 20 points in a game under Shane Steichen.

They picked a bad time for it with the Bengals in that wild card mix. But Browning clearly won this battle of backups, and Gardner Minshew may have even stayed in the game despite a possible concussion early in the game. The Colts failed to score on their final 5 possessions.

The Colts (7-6) might be in real trouble when you consider how games with the Steelers, their next opponent, usually go. Not only do you have to contend with Minshew’s mistakes, but the running game has essentially gone nowhere in 4-of-5 games.

The Bengals (7-6) are not finished as they have stumbled onto something to work with at the quarterback position in Browning.

Jaguars at Browns: Lawrence Returns But So Has Joe Flacco

Trevor Lawrence has still never missed a start due to injury in his NFL career, but sometimes you wonder if it’s not for the best if a player takes a week to rest. Lawrence barely averaged 5.0 yards per attempt as he threw 50 passes, including 3 interceptions, a 31-27 loss in Cleveland that felt like a 5-hour game.

Cleveland led wire-to-wire with Joe Flacco stepping up to throw for 311 yards and 3 touchdowns, simultaneously making you want to praise Kevin Stefanski for finding quality play in another quarterback not named Deshaun Watson while also questioning just how good that Jake Browning performance was on Monday night if the Jags are playing defense like this. Seriously, David Njoku was left wide open several times for big plays in this one.

But the Jaguars continued to struggle running the ball effectively, and the turnovers were hard to overcome. The game went on so long in part because Cleveland also turned it over 3 times. Each team had 16 possessions (kneeldowns excluded).

The big turning point was the second play of the 4th quarter when Lawrence was picked on a deep ball on 3rd-and-1 in a 21-14 game. I guess the Jaguars can’t even trust Travis Etienne to get a yard when they needed it most. Flacco used that short 48-yard field for another touchdown drive. But the Jaguars kept scoring and applying pressure, even coming up short on a 4th-and-3 with 3:30 left. By the time Jacksonville scored with 1:33 left, there was only time for an onside kick in a 31-27 final. They didn’t recover and the game was over.

Fortunately for the Jaguars (8-5), the Colts and Texans lost too. But the Browns are gaining confidence at 8-5 and just may have a quarterback answer in Flacco if you can believe it in 2023.

Buccaneers at Falcons: Baker Mayfield Brings NFC South Race to a Standstill

The Bucs were 1-15 when allowing 20 points under Todd Bowles since 2022, but make that 2-15 and give Baker Mayfield just as many wins doing it as Tom Brady had last year. The Buccaneers (6-7) are currently leading the NFC South as the Falcons and Saints are also 6-7 for the league’s worst division around.

But Baker did pull out a little Brady in this one as the Falcons were generally the better team, but Younghoe Koo missed two field goals he usually makes, and the Tampa defense was opportunistic in intercepting a screen pass and getting a safety to lead 19-10.

But the Falcons rallied to take a late 25-22 lead. Mayfield’s accuracy and decision making looked woeful on the ensuing drive as he looked like he was playing for a touchdown with under 30 seconds left instead of calmly taking the easy plays in a 3-point game with enough time left. But he finally got on track with a huge 3rd-and-10 conversion to Chris Godwin for 32 yards, then two plays later, he found Cade Otton for an 11-yard touchdown with 31 seconds left to take a 29-25 lead.

The Falcons did a solid job using their 2 timeouts to get into range for the win at the Tampa Bay 31 with 4 seconds left. But that last throw absolutely had to be in the end zone on the final play, and for some reason, Desmond Ridder threw short, completing a pass to Drake London for 28 yards to the 3-yard line to end the game. Didn’t understand that decision at all as Ridder had time to throw a little deeper to the end zone.

The Falcons and Bucs have split with each team winning on the road this year. Who is the best team out of Saints, Buccaneers, and Falcons? Damn if I know. The winner of the division should just be a sacrificial lamb to the NFC East runner-up.

Broncos at Chargers: Did We Just Lose Justin Herbert?

That would be something if this turned out to be the final game of the Brandon Staley-Justin Herbert era for the Chargers. Herbert left with a fractured index finger on his throwing hand, which is obviously not good.

It was already shaping up to be a rough start for Herbert, who had a pick at the line that led to a 3-yard touchdown run by Javonte Williams, his first score on the ground in 2 whole years.

Almost fittingly, Herbert was injured on a 4th-and-2 attempt in the second quarter as Staley bypassed a 47-yard field goal. Easton Stick, a 5th-round pick by the team way back in 2019, replaced him for the rest of the game. That was a tough assignment as the Chargers finished 1-for-6 on 4th down thanks to going 0-for-12 on 3rd down.

The Chargers (5-8) are toast, and the Broncos (7-6) are only a game behind the Chiefs (8-5) in the AFC West if you can believe that.

Texans at Jets: The Most Unexpected 300-Yard Passing Game

What a strange game. It always felt like a trap for the Texans, but who could have imagined 11 straight punts and a knee to go to halftime scoreless, then for Zach Wilson to throw for 301 yards in a 24-6 win?

The weather wasn’t as windy as some expected, so it wasn’t the issue. Not when Wilson was able to pass for 301 yards and multiple touchdowns in his first start in weeks. C.J. Stroud, the rookie who entered Week 14 leading the league in passing yards, only passed for 91 yards before he left the game injured in the fourth quarter.

But this was a case of not having your top two wide receivers and tight end while facing a tough pass defense on the road. The Texans already lost Tank Dell for the year, tight end Dalton Schutlz was still out, and Nico Collins left the game early with an injury. Stroud had his hands full and the Texans just did not deliver this afternoon.

But Wilson had his way with the defense as he completed 27-of-36 passes with Garrett Wilson going over 100 yards, and Randall Cobb even caught a touchdown.

Amusingly, the Jets tacked on 3 field goals in the fourth quarter on drives that all lost yardage as they were set up in Houston territory after 4th down stops by the defense. But the damage was done before that point.

Panthers at Saints: The NFC South Is Really This Bad

The passing offense was absolutely grotesque well into the second half of this game:

Derek Carr ended up finishing with 119 yards on 18 completions, taking him out of record territory, but it was still a putrid showing against the NFL’s only 1-win team. Bryce Young also struggled mightily again as he is regressing instead of showing improvement in his rookie season.

The Saints were almost going to win this one with 7 points on offense and the other 7 from a blocked punt return touchdown. But the defense stopped Carolina on a 4th-and-1 in a 14-6 game, then Carr hit a 44-yard completion that was more yardage than he had in the first 50 minutes combined. That drive was finished with a 7-yard touchdown to Chris Olave, then Jimmy Graham later caught a touchdown to blow it open 28-6.

We can talk about the Saints’ struggles on offense, but the Panthers are beyond putrid. There was already that Week 4 game against Minnesota where the Panthers scored 6 points (two field goals) despite holding the ball for 38:29. They came close to that again in this one with 34:50 in time of possession but only a pair of field goals to show for it.

Not only is Young failing to flash signs of improvement, but he’s f’n boring to watch too. Things are a real mess in Carolina right now and it is unlikely a good coach is going to want to take this job in 2024.

Next week: Are we really going to start the week with Easton Stick and Aidan O’Connell? A Saturday triple-header with no must-see games? It has to be Dallas at Buffalo to carry Sunday, because even SNF (Ravens-Jaguars) has lost some luster with the Jaguars on a losing streak. They flexed KC-NE out of MNF for Eagles-Seahawks, but I thought that was a mistake even before this KC losing streak. I much rather see if the Chiefs can avoid losing to Bailey Zappe than to watch another game with fading Seattle (and Philly for that matter) right now.

NFL Stat Oddity: Week 11

~ Scott ~ 10 Comments

Week 11 in the NFL has been quite good, but hopefully the best is still to come Monday night with Eagles-Chiefs. As for Sunday, we saw suplexes, the craziest comeback of the season took place in Detroit, a game that arguably defines the Justin Herbert era in Los Angeles, and the week you started wondering if Tommy DeVito was a better quarterback than Kenny Pickett. My God, how I miss the days of Big Ben and Eli.

But we’ll rip on Kenny Pickett a few times below. There were better games than that this week, including a solid Sunday night game that saw Russell Wilson move into a tie for 8th place in fourth-quarter comeback wins. Hours earlier, Matthew Stafford moved into a tie with Dan Marino for sixth place on the same list.

Week 11 has 8 games with a comeback opportunity so far. I’m going to need some extra time to prepare for Monday night, so this is going up before 4 a.m. and I look forward to what comes of this next game.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Bears at Lions: Never in Doubt

This may be the kind of game we expect to see the Bears lose these days, but it’s usually not a team like Detroit on the winning end of things. Whether they forgot how to face Justin Fields, were looking ahead to Thanksgiving this Thursday against Green Bay, or looking back too fondly of how great they played on offense in Los Angeles last week, this was a trashy performance that needed the comeback of the season to salvage for a 31-26 win.

Jared Goff threw two interceptions in the first half, it could have been three, and it turned into three in the third quarter while the Lions were trailing 20-14, having just fumbled a kickoff that led to D.J. Moore catching a 39-yard touchdown.

This was looking rough all around, but the Bears gave them a little opening in the fourth quarter. After the last Goff pick, the Bears had a drive that extended into the fourth quarter and saw Chicago face a 4th-and-1 at the Detroit 23 with 14:15 left. I think you go for the jugular and go for that one, hoping to make it a 28-14 game with less time on the clock. Instead, the Bears went safe and kicked a 40-yard field goal to make it 23-14.

Detroit still went three-and-out thanks to Montez Sweat killing the drive with a sack. The Bears grinded almost 9 minutes off the clock with what should have been a game-clinching drive. Fields had a 29-yard scramble that put him over 100 yards on the ground on the day, but the Bears did stall out eventually. They kicked a 39-yard field goal on a 4th-and-5 with 4:15 left to make it 26-14. At least that field goal was more defensible since it was 4th-and-5, and it made the Lions have to score two touchdowns to win the game.

With only 4:15 left, it is very hard to manufacture two scores (at least one being a touchdown) to win a game in the NFL. It has now only happened 28 times since 2001, and somehow this is the third time since 2020 that it’s happened in a Bears-Lions game:

Goff got his playmakers involved and Jameson Williams was open on a 32-yard touchdown with 2:59 left. That quick strike only needed 76 seconds. The Bears played right in Detroit’s hands with a run-run-incomplete 3-and-out drive, and Goff had an eternity left with 2:33, a timeout, and 73 yards to drive.

This was David Montgomery’s revenge game, his first against Chicago, and it wasn’t going so well to this point. But he looked determined on this drive with gains of 13, 12, 9, and 10 yards on the ground and on receptions. It was Jahmyr Gibbs who had a pivotal run to the 1-yard line with 31 seconds left when the Bears took a timeout, sensing what was coming next.

Sure enough, Montgomery got his Hollywood script ending and scored on the 1-yard touchdown run with 29 seconds left. Rookie tight end Sam LaPorta, on his quietest day of the season, caught a key 2-point conversion to make it 29-26.

Chicago still had two timeouts, so it was doable. But as I’ve said before, Fields might be the worst quarterback in NFL history at getting a field goal in the clutch. On the first snap of the drive, Aidan Hutchinson got to him and forced a fumble, which was eventually kicked thru the end zone for a safety. Detroit won 31-26, completing the wildest comeback of the 2023 season.

Fields is now 1-14 at fourth-quarter comeback opportunities. The Bears just never seem to be able to put these games away under Matt Eberflus.

It is an exciting win for Detroit, a great story for Montgomery, but it may be a wake-up call that they need to start playing better. The only complete performance over the last month was against the Raiders. The whole team was wiped out in Baltimore, the defense didn’t show up against the Chargers, and this game featured a lot of spotty play in every unit, but Goff’s turnovers were probably the biggest red flag. But he managed to redeem himself against a team known to blow games just like this.

A lot still has to happen before we respect the Lions as a team that wins games like this, but they are 8-2 and keeping up with the Eagles and 49ers in the NFC standings.

Chargers at Packers: A Full Helping of Chargering

Is it possible for a game to go as you expected but still be surprised by the outcome? That was this game for me.

The Packers were my upset pick, and I talked about Jordan Love throwing multiple touchdowns at home for the first time in his career against this bottom-ranked passing defense so that he could break this 7-game streak without Green Bay scoring 21 points. That all happened and he even had the first 300-yard passing game of his career. I also predicted it to be a tight, one-score game, or the usual Chargers game on a Sunday afternoon.

But the level of Chargering in this one was truly something special. Justin Herbert finished with 260 yards and 2 touchdown passes, and he even led the game with 73 rushing yards. It was in a way one of the best games of his career, but the numbers won’t back that up because his skill players short circuited a handful of likely scoring drives. They started the game with a drop on 4th-and-4, Keenan Allen dropped a touchdown early, Austin Ekeler fumbled at the 2-yard line in the fourth quarter, and rookie Quentin Johnston dropped a pass down the sideline on a crucial 3rd-and-6.

It would not have been a routine catch, though I bet Zay Flowers, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and Jordan Addison make it, but it was very catchable. If caught, it either could have been the game-winning touchdown, or since Johnston doesn’t look that fast on an NFL field, it could have at least set up a game-tying field goal for overtime. Would the Chargers have made the kick? Probably not, because these are the Chargers we’re talking about.

I didn’t even mention the Packers were about to be screwed with a 4th-and-20 coming up with under 4 minutes left, but Asante Samuel Jr. was penalized 24 yards for defensive pass interference, extending what became the game-winning drive. Love threw a 24-yard touchdown pass to Romeo Doubs with 2:33 left. Herbert had a moment of mortality with a quick three-and-out after he was sacked on third down. But the Chargers got the ball back after using their timeouts to stop the run, and that was when Johnston had the big drop with 23 seconds left. The game ended for good when Herbert’s 4th-and-1 pass was incomplete with the Chargers out of timeouts.

Herbert’s QBR (82.9) was the highest for any quarterback to lose in Week 11. It was the highest (82.0) in Week 10 against Detroit out of all losing quarterbacks. This is a consistent theme with the Chargers.

Herbert may not be perfect, but the people trying to blame him for these last two weeks for the Chargers slipping to 4-6 are out of their mind. This is already the third lost comeback of the 2023 season for Herbert, who also led go-ahead touchdown drives in the fourth quarter in losses to the Dolphins and Titans to start this season. While not a lost comeback, he also had game-tying touchdown drives against Dallas and Detroit in games the Chargers still lost.

Looks like I need to start up a new Chargers BINGO card for the Herbert era.

Vikings at Broncos: The Close Game Regression Bowl

When the 2023 schedule came out, I highlighted this game as a big regression opportunity between the team that kept making comebacks last year (Vikings) and the team that kept blowing leads (Broncos). That’s why I had this as a Denver win in my preseason predictions.

Sure enough, the Vikings blew a late lead and are now 5-5 in close games of which they’ve played a league-high 10 of. Last year, they were 11-0 in the regular season in close games. Denver is only 4-3 in close games, but that includes a 4-3 record at game-winning drive opportunities, which isn’t bad at all in a season where under 35% of those are successful.

We have enough history to show that if you give Russell Wilson enough chances, he can make you pay. This was his 34th fourth-quarter comeback win, which ties him with Johnny Unitas and John Elway for the 8th most all time.

I don’t know if the Vikings got premature news on Justin Jefferson’s health or what, but their game plan did not seem right to me. Not nearly enough passes to T.J. Hockenson and Jordan Addison, and they ran the ball 28 times with the running backs, which is also unusual. You had to figure it was going to be a weird night once the Vikings gave a direct snap to T.J. Hockenson on the third play of the game, and he gave the ball to Joshua Dobbs, who fumbled. Did I mention this was to just convert a 3rd-and-1?

But speaking of regression, what is going on with this Denver defense and turnovers? That’s now 12 takeaways in the last three games with another 3 in this game. That was mostly the difference as Minnesota’s offense was better outside of those mistakes. The Broncos were under 300 yards of offense again and they were 2-for-12 on third down.

But what did Denver do? Kept making those field goals, hung in there to get enough turnovers, and down 20-15, Wilson was able to lead his lone touchdown drive of the night to win the game. Courtland Sutton and Samaje Perine were huge on the game-winning drive, which was completed with more end zone stretching highlights by Sutton for a 15-yard touchdown with 1:03 left.

However, Denver failed on the 2-point conversion, so it was only a 21-20 lead with Minnesota having all its timeouts left. The legend of Dobbs could have really grown here with a game-winning drive, but the Vikings got really caught up in a short-yardage situation after Jordan Addison ran out of bounds 1 yard shy of a first down. That led to the Vikings having to burn 2 timeouts, and this was not moving along well. Pressure got to Dobbs, and he was called for intentional grounding, which set up 4th-and-25. Not surprisingly, his deep ball was incomplete, and the Broncos held on for another tight win this week.

Minnesota’s (6-5) 5-game winning streak is over, and the Broncos (5-5) are on a 4-game winning streak. I don’t know if either team is playoff worthy, but close game regression has hit each appropriately this year.

Steelers at Browns: Half the AFC North QBs Go Down and Kenny Pickett Is Still the Worst

It feels like Sunday was a breaking point for many who were still believers in Kenny Pickett after this 13-10 loss in Cleveland to a backup rookie quarterback (Dorian Thompson-Robinson). I’ve always been skeptical of Pickett as a franchise quarterback, and this game was one of his worst yet. He was 15-of-28 for 106 yards, and he took 3 sacks for another 29 yards. That’s 77 yards on 31 passes. That’s nothing.

More than that, Jaylen Warren carried this offense to all 10 of its points, starting with a 74-yard touchdown run after the Steelers were scoreless at halftime. While DTR was not great for Cleveland, I think it says a lot that his coaching staff let him throw 43 passes in such a low-scoring, tight battle. In fact, Cleveland is only the third team ever to throw at least 43 passes in a game it never trailed, a game that didn’t go to overtime, and where they allowed no more than 10 points while scoring no more than 13 points. It only happened in 2007 Ravens vs. 49ers and 2004 Dolphins vs. Browns.

DTR definitely had some accuracy issues, but he was not afraid to let the ball go, and he was accurate late in the game in leading a game-winning field goal drive after Pickett went three-and-out in a drive that only took 24 seconds.

More drives like that and I don’t see how the Steelers don’t go shopping for a quarterback after the season. It’s one thing to be generally lousy in the game like the opening sack he took that should have been a safety where he looked like he had no awareness. It’s one thing to be lousy at scoring points. But if your reputation of coming through in the clutch is going to lead to drives like the last couple in a 10-10 game in the fourth quarter, then you are just wasting the team’s time. You bring nothing to the table.

While watching this game, I was flipping back to the RedZone channel during commercials and saw a rookie like C.J. Stroud move in the pocket, set his feet, and fire bombs to give his guys a chance or threading the needle on dimes to the sideline while under pressure, and I turn back and there’s Pickett with 34 yards at halftime. Only a net of 15 if you take off the sacks. There’s no comparison. And it’s not just Stroud. I could see it in Week 1 when Brock Purdy, the last pick in a 2022 draft that saw Pickett go ahead of every other quarterback, vastly outplay him.

Even Tommy DeVito threw 3 touchdowns for the Giants on Sunday after he had 2 last week against Dallas. He’s up to 6 touchdowns or as many as Pickett has in 10 games this season. Come on.

I will say Najee Harris has the right outlook on things, noting that the Steelers aren’t going to keep winning by playing poorly like they have been.

The Steelers were outgained for the 10th time this year. There were signs of fool’s gold with their 7-2 finish after last year’s bye week, but at least the 2022 Steelers can say they outgained their opponent in yards in 8 of their last 9 games.

This year’s offense is a joke, and while Matt Canada was taking almost all of the criticism early, people may finally be able to see the quarterback is a huge problem too.

Huge problem.

Buccaneers at 49ers: At Least It Wasn’t 35-7 This Time

Brock Purdy must like playing the Buccaneers. He made his first NFL start against them last year, led Tom Brady’s team 35-0, and on Sunday, he had a rare perfect passer rating (158.3) game with 21-of-25 for 333 yards and 3 touchdowns. He did take 4 sacks to help keep that number intact, but it was one of Purdy’s best games with Brandon Aiyuk having a monster game with 156 yards and a touchdown.

Christian McCaffrey started a new touchdown streak right away in the first quarter, and the 49ers largely rolled along to a 27-14 win. Not as dominant as last year’s meeting, but Baker Mayfield was better than the King of Kings. He just wasn’t able to finish drives off in the red zone in the fourth quarter as the Buccaneers had a couple of long marches stall in a scoreless final 14 minutes.

The 49ers (7-3) could certainly use a Philadelphia loss this week (at Kansas City) or next (vs. Buffalo) to further build the hype when they meet in Week 13, the Game of the Year in the NFC.

Jets at Bills: Buffalo Not So Much Back as Jets Are Good as Gone

The Bills won their first game after firing offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and it was fairly convincing as the 32-6 score suggests. But was it really?

Could Dorsey have called a 3-and-out drive that lost 9 yards to start the game after the Bills forced a fumble on the opening kickoff? The Bills still got a field goal out of it, but the offense went backwards. On the second drive, Stefon Diggs had a fumble go out of bounds, so the new OC must be better at using his mind to teleport the ball out of bounds unlike Dorsey on Monday night against Denver.

But the Bills were held to three field goals before another short field (23 yards) presented itself after a Zach Wilson interception. That made it 16-0. The only turnover of the game for Buffalo was a Hail Mary interception thrown by Josh Allen to end the half, but I’m sure that’ll fuel someone else’s narrative on this team.

The Bills (6-5) played fine against an unraveling division foe that benched its quarterback for Tim Boyle in this game. I just think Dorsey was a scapegoat and this one game doesn’t prove anything either way, unless you think the Bills will get 81-yard touchdown passes to Shakir more often now. After all, it’s only the 2nd completion in Allen’s NFL career of more than 75 yards, and that should be credited to the OC, right?

Meh, whatever. We’ll see what happens in Philadelphia next week.

Seahawks at Rams: Not Feeling the Field Goal

It was a little surprising to see the Seahawks blow a 13-0 lead in this one, because the Rams did not look good. Matthew Stafford was having a rough day, Cooper Kupp misjudged a deep ball for a touchdown, and left the game injured. But Kenneth Walker was injured for the Seahawks, and Geno Smith was hurt on a hit that almost led to an interception on a pop-up.

The Rams hung in there while the Seahawks kept settling for long field goals, which would ultimately doom them. Drew Lock’s entry into the game in the final quarter did not help. He had a three-and-out drive and an interception.

The Rams finally came to life with a touchdown run by Darrell Henderson, then after the Lock pick, Stafford took over at his own 21, got bailed out of a 3rd-and-15 with an illegal hands to the face penalty, and the Rams bled the clock down to 1:31 after kicking a 22-yard field goal to take a 17-16 lead.

That’s plenty of time for Seattle to answer, and even better, Geno replaced Lock at quarterback. D.K. Metcalf ended his little touchdown drought earlier in the game, and his 21-yard catch to get the ball inside the 40 looked like a game-changing play. At that point with under 35 seconds and no timeouts left, I think Seattle should have spiked it. Instead, the Seahawks ran the ball for a 2-yard gain, which meant a hurried spike with 8 seconds left, leaving almost no time to run another play unless you want to get risky.

Again, I think they blew the strategy there. Spike it on first down, complete one more good pass over the middle or to the sideline, and you can set up the field goal from there. I flat out don’t get the hurried run with a running clock and no timeouts.

Pete Carroll basically cornered himself into a 55-yard field goal to win the game, and while kickers are better than ever from long distance, that’s a tough kick for Jason Myers. He was wide right with 3 seconds left, and that was the ball game.

The Rams complete the sweep of Seattle, repaying the Seahawks for their sweep last year in close games against Sean McVay’s team. The Seahawks (6-4) have to host the 49ers this Thursday night with a questionable quarterback, so this division race could be wrapping up soon enough.

As for Stafford, he gets his 36th fourth-quarter comeback win, tying him with Dan Marino for No. 6 in NFL history.

Cardinals at Texans: The Shootout That Became Defensive Slugfest

This had great potential to be a fun shootout, and it was in the first half. Kyler Murray threw his first touchdown pass of the season on a 48-yard bomb to Rondale Moore to get the scoring started. By halftime, Houston led 21-10 and rookie C.J. Stroud was sitting on 259 yards and 2 touchdown passes, or what Kenny Pickett might accumulate if games were 20 quarters long.

The third quarter saw Houston’s new kicker miss a 48-yard field goal, Murray scoot into the end zone on a 4th-and-goal touchdown as only he can, and it set up what should have been a dramatic fourth quarter with the Cardinals only down 21-16.

But the score never changed. The Cardinals came up short in turning the ball over on downs, they muffed a punt, Stroud was picked, Murray missed on a 4th-and-4, Stroud was picked for a third time in the game not unlike last week when he had a chance to put the game away in Cincinnati.

Arizona tried to take that last pick the distance for a game-winning drive that started with 4:58 left, but they short-circuited after the 2-minute warning when Murray’s pass to James Conner lost 5 yards and set everything back. Murray has not had the right connection with Hollywood Brown yet in his return, and he was the incomplete target on the game’s last two plays, including a 4th-and-8.

A thing I love about this Houston offense is the way it seems to have a different receiver go nuclear every week. It was Nico Collins earlier this season, then it was Noah Brown the last two weeks, and Sunday’s turn was Tank Dell’s, who had 149 yards and a touchdown. Collins, Brown, and Dell all have multiple games with 140 receiving yards this season, and if that’s not a single-season record for a team, I’d be surprised.

So, I looked it up, and it is a record. The 2023 Texans are the 26th offense to have at least six 140-yard receiving performances in a regular season (record is 8 by 1967 Jets, 2018 Steelers, and 2022 Dolphins), but they are the only one to do it with three receivers having multiple big performances.

Like to see Stroud cut out the big picks late in games while nursing small leads, but that’s about the only thing he’s doing lately that makes you remember he’s a rookie and not an elite veteran.

Raiders at Dolphins: Didn’t Think They Had It in Them

I really did not think the Dolphins had a 20-13 game in them. It’s disappointing for both teams that they didn’t score more in a game where Davante Adams (82 yards) and Tyreek Hill (146 yards) both found the end zone. But Josh Jacobs was held to 39 yards on 14 carries, and the return of De’Von Achane was short-lived for Miami as he left injured after 2 touches for 5 yards.

But these defenses controlled the second half when only a pair of Miami field goals were scored. Every time it looked like the Raiders had a drive going in a 20-13 game, the Miami defense shut the door with a 3rd-down sack, a couple of 4th-down stops, and the final pick was a great play by Jalen Ramsey on a deep ball in the end zone with 25 seconds left to ice the win.

The Miami offense was not up to putting the game away, so the defense stepped up for it. Can they do that against a contender and not a Vegas team with rookie Aidan O’Connell at QB?  We’ll see.

Giants at Commanders: Those Pesky Division Games

I couldn’t believe some of the lines on this game this week with the Giants at +9.5 and the Commanders O/U 23.5 points. Sure, it’s a different offense this year with Sam Howell and Eric Bieniemy, but it’s still a struggling offense that takes too many sacks. That was the case in Week 7 when the Giants beat this team 14-7 in an ugly game.

If there is one thing the Giants have proven they can do consistently over the years, it is beating Washington. Tommy DeVito ended up throwing for 246 yards and 3 touchdowns in this game despite taking 9 sacks. The last team to win a game by double digits despite allowing 9 sacks was the 1984 Falcons, and that’s because they had 8 sacks on defense against the Eagles.

This game is the 145th in the Super Bowl era where a team had 9 sacks on defense while allowing no more than 4 sacks on offense. This is only the second time in those 145 games where the team lost by more than 3 points. The only other game was the 1966 AFL Championship, won 31-7 by the Chiefs over Buffalo.

Sacks were the only thing keeping this close as the Commanders lost the turnover battle 6-0. The sixth turnover was a pick-6 with the ball at midfield and 29 seconds left in a 24-19 game. It happened because of pressure.

Isaiah Simmons could have just gone down and ended the game there at 24-19, but of course my teaser parlays never hit for this reason. 31-19 it is as the Giants have a rookie quarterback who has as many touchdown passes (6) in the last 3 games as Kenny Pickett has in 10 games this year. I promise, that’s the last Pickett mention today.

Circle this one on Jack Del Rio’s resume.

Cowboys at Panthers: Predictable

Dallas accomplished two things it had not done since Week 1’s 40-0 win over the Giants:

  • Win a road game by more than 3 points
  • Get Tony Pollard a touchdown

You probably figured the 33-10 win over 1-win Carolina came easy, but this was only a 17-10 game going into the fourth quarter. That’s when Dallas blew the game open in two snaps. Pollard took off for a 21-yard touchdown, then a Bryce Young pass was intercepted for a touchdown by a defense that was +350 on the day to score, which is ridiculously high. Just like that it was 30-10 and game over.

The Carolina defense did what it could in limiting Dallas to 4.6 yards per play (no plays over 25 yards). But the Panthers lacked any big plays and Young was also sacked 7 times (2.5 sacks by Micah Parsons).

The 2023 Cowboys are only the third team in the Super Bowl era to notch 6 wins by at least 20 points in their first 10 games, joining the 2007 Patriots (8) and 1999 Rams (6). Those were historic Super Bowl teams. I’m not sure Dallas will join them there too, but they definitely know how to squash a scrub (Arizona aside).

Titans at Jaguars: Just Your Typical, Unwatchable Jacksonville Game

The Jaguars are 7-3 after toying with Tennessee in a 34-14 bore that saw the Jags score the game’s first 27 points. Trevor Lawrence threw a pair of touchdowns to Calvin Ridley and rushed for another pair himself.

Rookie Will Levis had 51 passing yards late in the third quarter when it was 27-0 before finishing with a gaudy stat line (13-of-17 for 158 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs, and a 143.8 passer rating) that ultimately meant nothing.

I think the Titans (3-7) are largely going through the motions right now, and the Jaguars play a brand of football that just isn’t that sexy or enticing to watch. Their games haven’t seen a fourth-quarter lead change since Week 1 in Indy, and their only other game this year where either team was within 3 points in the fourth quarter was the 31-24 win in New Orleans where a 24-24 tie was broken late by Jacksonville.

At least you can say their games have been decided decisively, but when you can’t score against the contenders (12 points total in losses to the Chiefs and 49ers), you’re going to get looked over for 34-14 wins over the Titans, who look like a 1980s nightclub slowly coming to grips with the Last Days of Disco.

Next week: For Week 12, thanks to Thanksgiving and Black Friday, the NFL is giving us 5 island games that are all division games, and they might all stink. Great. At least SNF has potential with Ravens-Chargers, but that could be a blowout too. I think Bills-Eagles is the week’s best game and that’ll be a 4:25 start. I enjoy those late-window games where they start in daylight and turn dark by halftime. Just hope it’s not decided in the first half too.

NFL Stat Oddity: Week 7

~ Scott ~ 14 Comments

Save for a Monday night game with Kirk Cousins facing a Super Bowl contender, Week 7 is in the books. While everyone has at least 10 more games to play before the playoffs, we may have reached that point where a Super Bowl rematch from last year looks more probable than any other scenario. Remember, it has only happened one time ever with the Cowboys and Bills in 1992-93.

The Chiefs and Eagles were the favorites before the season started, but we watched Kansas City lose by a point on opening night to Detroit, we questioned if the offense was still as potent with the wide receivers, and we saw the Eagles win some one-score games where they weren’t as impressive as they were a season ago when they had so much balance and avoided turnovers on offense. We were briefly entertaining how good Miami’s scoring was, how it could be Buffalo or Dallas’ year for a change, and of course the 49ers looked like the best overall team in the league until they stumbled in Cleveland last week.

But the roads to the Super Bowl may still very well go through Kansas City and Philadelphia after they both won 31-17 games at home in a Week 7 that featured 10-of-12 games with a comeback opportunity. It comes down to trust, and right now, do you really trust teams like Buffalo, Dallas, and Miami to get the job done in January? Do you even trust the 49ers over the Eagles, who are practically automatic in short-yardage situations and are getting an all-time stretch from A.J. Brown? Patrick Mahomes (+260 at FanDuel) is also back as the MVP favorite after throwing for 424 yards and 4 touchdowns.

Of course, another Chiefs-Eagles Super Bowl would be nightmare fuel for conspiracy theorists who want to say the league is fixing things for Taylor Swift, and that would be her ideal matchup for sure. But if you look around the league in Week 7, officiating is quite shitty in most games these days. That’s part of the product now.

One thing I expected to see in Week 7 was more overs hitting after the under was 12-2-1 in Week 6. But after a solid start to the week, overs are still just 5-7 (or 6-6 if you got Chiefs-Chargers at 47.5) going into Monday night. There were only 3 games this week where both teams scored more than 17 points, and one of them was Thursday night when the Saints lost 31-24 to the Jaguars.

Another thing we have yet to see this week was a team win after trailing by 10+ points. There have only been 2 weeks in the regular season since 2020 where this did not happen once, and it was in Weeks 10-11 (back-to-back) of the 2021 season. If the Vikings go up 10-0 early on Monday night, hammer the 49ers’ ML.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Dolphins at Eagles: Brother, Can You Spare a Yard?

Is it asking too much to have a Sunday Night Football game this season where both teams score at least 3 touchdowns? It would be if the game was Cowboys-Giants (Week 1’s 40-0 rout), but Dolphins-Eagles should have been a solid shootout with two of the best offenses in the league.

Instead, we saw the home team control play, never trail, and that historic Miami offense was held to 10 points, 12 first downs, and 244 total yards (all season lows). Miami’s first score was a 1-yard field goal drive set up by a turnover, and its last score was a pick-six after a deflected pass at the line went right to the defender. You could argue this Miami offense only had one legitimate scoring drive, a 72-yard march before halftime that ended with Tua Tagovailoa’s best throw of the night on a 27-yard touchdown to Tyreek Hill, who was held to 11 catches for 88 yards. With 15 targets for Hill, you’ll take that as a defense against him.

It did not help Miami that it only had 8 offensive possessions and squandered the last three with two failed 4th downs and a bad interception in the fourth quarter when the Dolphins trailed 24-17.

Both offensive lines looked outmatched early, but the Eagles eventually got the better of the physical play up front and got to their game in short yardage. The Eagles were 4-for-4 on fourth down, including a pair of 4th-and-1 conversions inside their own 40 on a drive that ended with a short touchdown run to take a commanding 31-17 lead with 4:46 left. What can you say about the Brotherly Shove other than this team has perfected it?

A.J. Brown had both of the game’s plays that gained over 30 yards, continuing his record-tying streak of five consecutive games with at least 125 receiving yards:

For the Eagles, I had that record going back to last year’s Super Bowl where this team was 0-7 in the Jalen Hurts era in games against teams with 10 wins and a quarterback ranked in the top 15 in QBR. This could end up being the first win in that split, assuming Tagovailoa finishes the season well and the Dolphins double their win total.

But there was some concern coming into this game that Miami was a paper tiger with a 48-20 beatdown loss in Buffalo and all the team’s wins against teams who were a combined 5-24 going into the week. A performance like this in Philadelphia will only strengthen people to not believe in this team, but they were a bit shorthanded at corner with Xavien Howard and Jalen Ramsey not available. Jaylen Waddle also momentarily left the game with a bad back but did return to finish, and we are missing a chance to see rookie running back De’Von Achane after injury sidelined him for weeks to come.

But for as much as I can talk about the Eagles not beating the good teams/QBs, the Dolphins don’t have a quality win in that department since Week 3 last year against Buffalo, the beginning of Tua’s concussion problems. Miami still has a lot to prove, and a game like this puts a real dent in the chances this offense breaks records by season’s end.

Chargers at Chiefs: The Most Boring Second Half in a Herbert-Mahomes Game Yet

Kansas City with a defense is a scary proposition for the rest of the NFL. There were few better ways to test this than a game with the Chargers, who always play the Chiefs well. In fact, Justin Herbert led at halftime and in the fourth quarter in each of his first 6 games against Kansas City, including all 5 matchups against Patrick Mahomes.

But those streaks are dead, and I guess my jinxing power is still strong. I had the stat this week where Chargers +3.5 in the first half was a hit in the last 16 games for the Chargers. It hit in 33 of the first 40 games for coach Brandon Staley as this team struggles in the second half but not so much in the first.

After a 60-yard pass to Josh Palmer and a 49-yard touchdown run by Josh Kelley in the second quarter, it looked like the Chargers were having their usual Kansas City game where Herbert plays great and goes score for score with Mahomes. So much for this “great defense” when the Chargers were tied 17-17 and driving at midfield. But after a Herbert sack led to a punt, the Chiefs made another one of those dagger drives before halftime, going 96 yards in the final minutes before finishing with a touchdown to Travis Kelce, who bullied his way in with the help of his line from the 1-yard line.

The touchdown likely never happens, and Chargers +3.5 1H probably survives another game, if not for a defensive pass interference on the Chargers to wipe out a 3rd-and-23 situation for Kansas City. Just my luck some Chargering would end this streak and blow the bet.

But down 24-17, the Chargers were in this one even though Mahomes passed for 321 yards, 3 touchdowns, and 1 interception (arm punt on 3rd-and-12) in the first half alone as the Chiefs were all about the pass (6 runs for 12 yards at halftime). It looked like we would get another fantastic finish, especially after Blake Bell provided the obligatory Chiefs fumble in the red zone to start the second half.

But a strange thing happened in the second half: 10 drives, 7 points total between the teams. A 24-17 half ended 31-17, which is very unusual in NFL history.

Out of 433 games since 1970 where both teams scored at least 17 points in the first half, this is only the 27th game (6.2%) that finished under 48.5 total points. It is only the 6th game to end under 48.5 after a half where one team scored at least 24 points and the other scored at least 17.

The turnovers were obviously costly. The Chargers took the Bell fumble, drove to the Kansas City 8, then Herbert’s pass was deflected at the line and wound up as an interception.

Despite that pick, the Chargers had the ball in the fourth quarter, down 24-17, on three different drives and failed to do anything with it. That’s not what we’d see from Kansas City defenses in past years.

If you give Herbert 3 drives to do something, he usually can get a score on one, but not on Sunday. If you give Mahomes 3 drives to put the game away, you can all but guarantee he’s going to do it eventually. The first two likely only failed because they started at the Kansas City 3 and 8 (backed up). But after Mecole Hardman made his return felt with a 50-yard punt return, it was smooth sailing for the Chiefs with 6:16 to go. Mahomes converted a 3rd-and-6 to Hardman, then threw his 4th touchdown of the game to Isiah Pacheco with 3:30 left to take a 31-17 lead.

In no man’s land on 2nd-and-24 at midfield, Herbert threw another desperation interception to end the game. Herbert had the first game of his career where he threw multiple interceptions and took at least 4 sacks (he had 2 INTs and 5 sacks).

The Chiefs are the only team in the league to not allow more than 21 points in any game this season. Mahomes’ 6th game with 400 yards and 4 touchdowns ties him for third place in NFL history.

When every non-playoff rest game between these teams had been decided by 1-6 points since 2020 when Herbert became the starter, this one ending 31-17 is another sign that we should respect this defense. I don’t know if they can keep it up for a whole season as the last teams to start like this eventually faded, but if the offense is going to have halves like it did on Sunday to start this game, it may not matter.

Bills at Patriots: The Mac Jones Era Will Survive Another Week

This was the upset of the week. Buffalo (-7.5) has been flirting with extremes from a 48-20 win over the Dolphins to losing 25-20 in London to Jacksonville, then coming up a yard short of losing to the Giants in a 14-9 game last week.

I thought they would take last week’s scare and go the opposite direction with a commanding win over a New England team they have owned since 2020, and possibly put an end to the Mac Jones era.

But this wasn’t some 4-D chess by the Bills to make the Patriots keep Jones as the starter. This was just a bad performance on both sides of the ball and it’s inexcusable at this point. The offense may have some flaws, but it is more than talented enough to have more than 10 points on the board before the fourth quarter. The defense has injuries as we all know, but the New England offense has been so bad that there’s no excuse for allowing the Patriots to pile up 29 points and 364 yards.

What were some of Buffalo’s problems? The usual case of relying a bit too much on Josh Allen, who can be a wild card with his decision making. He had a pick and lost a fumble in this game. But the offensive line also struggled to protect him, and that’s surprising when the Patriots didn’t even have their best pass rusher (Matt Judon) or corner (Christian Gonzalez). Stefon Diggs usually has his way with the Patriots, but he only had 58 yards on 12 targets this time. Gabriel Davis is a flawed No. 2 as he only had a 6-yard catch on 5 targets.

But to let Jones complete 25-of-30 passes for 272 yards and 2 touchdowns? Come on, Buffalo. This was looking to be a big New England win after the Patriots took a 22-10 lead with half a quarter to play, but the Bills staged an impressive team comeback. Diggs broke free on an athletic 25-yard touchdown, then the defense forced Kendrick Bourne to fumble on a completion, putting the Bills 29 yards away from the go-ahead touchdown with 4:56 left.

This is exactly the kind of back-breaking fumble that has been killing the Patriots in close games like this since 2020. The kind of play that has nothing to do with the quarterback or head coach, but it’s the type of mistake we’re not used to seeing the Patriots make. Sure enough, the Bills turned that short field into a touchdown on an Allen sneak, then the 2-point conversion was also successful to make it 25-22.

Plenty of time (1:58) for the Patriots to answer, but it was a windy day for kickers, and Jones had the worst record among active quarterbacks in comeback opportunities at 1-11. Almost immediately the Bills were in bad shape as the Patriots called a little pass to running back Rhamondre Stevenson, who took it 34 yards and got this thing rolling. A pass interference penalty put the ball at the 1, and Jones threw a game-winning touchdown pass to tight end Mike Gesicki with 12 seconds left for easily the best game-winning drive we’ve seen from the Patriots since the 2018 season.

The Bills only had time to fumble on a lateral attempt. Buffalo is only 4-3, and while we put a lot of stock in that 48-20 thrashing of the Dolphins, we have to question the Bills’ wins the same way we do Miami’s since they are against similar teams (Raiders, Commanders, and Giants).

The good news is Miami lost too Sunday night, but the whole AFC East is looking a bit fraudulent right now. With a chance to knock the Patriots out, the Bills folded on defense to Mac Jones in the clutch. That’s pretty low.

Lions at Ravens: Rout of the Week

If Bills-Patriots was the upset of the week, this was the unexpected rout of the week. I was really confident in this being a great 23-20 type of game that went down to the wire. Even when the Ravens went up 21-0, you could picture them blowing it with the way they have played since 2021. Too many blown leads and close games.

But this was an ass kicking the likes of which we have rarely seen this year. We definitely do not see Dan Campbell-coached teams get dragged like this for 60 minutes. The Lions are 28-13 ATS (68.3%) since 2021, the best record in the league in that time, and we have seen this team rally back to one-score losses against elite teams the last few years like the 2021 49ers (41-33), 2022 Eagles (38-35), and 2022 Bills (28-25).

With Detroit trying to go to 6-1, Lamar Jackson came prepared with arguably the best game of his career: 21-of-27 for 357 yards, 3 touchdown passes, 36 rushing yards, 1 rushing touchdown, and 4 straight long touchdown drives to begin the game. It may have been 5 touchdowns in a row if Jackson had not had an aborted snap, the only blemish to an otherwise perfect half.

Baltimore even started the second half with a 94-yard touchdown drive, showing this was not a day where the team would make things too close for comfort. The Lions only got on the board when it was 35-0 in the fourth quarter when rookie Jahmyr Gibbs scored his first NFL touchdown, but the Lions lost 38-6 as Jared Goff took 5 sacks and threw 53 passes in an effort to try to keep up.

But the Ravens dominated this one start to finish, which is not the type of performance we’ve seen from this team that often. I’m not sure if it was just one of those anomaly days for both teams, but this was a strong statement as people were giving me pushback earlier this month for suggesting the Ravens were a legit contender and a team like Detroit was merely window dressing for the Super Bowl competition.

Browns at Colts: The Unexpected Quasi-Shootout

From Saturday’s predictions: “Wouldn’t it be such a #RandomNFL thing for the Browns to beat the 49ers with P.J. Walker but lose to the Colts with Deshaun Watson back? I almost picked it outright, but we’ll go with an Indy cover.”

Since 1950, NFL teams were 0-631 when allowing 38 points, throwing 2 interceptions, and getting outgained by at least 110 yards. Welcome to history because the Browns won doing all those things in Indy on Sunday.

Something always felt off about this game, and I’m still surprised picking Indy +3.5 and the Browns to win proved to be my best game prediction in Week 7. But the Browns were getting so much credit for the defense, and the Colts are now the only team in the league to score at least 20 points in every game.

But I don’t think anyone in the world could have predicted a 39-38 final from this one. What makes it even crazier is P.J. Walker outplayed Deshaun Watson, who left injured very early after he slammed his head on the ground, and while the Cleveland defense technically did some great things to get this win, it was at the expense of holding the Colts to 38 points instead of closer to 50 like they had potential for. Is that great defense these days? Meh.

I don’t know what this game will do for Cleveland going forward, but Gardner Minshew throwing for 305 yards and running in 2 touchdowns has to knock some shine off the idea of this being a historic defense.

And yet, it was a monster performance from Myles Garrett that helped turn things around for Cleveland. He forced a strip-sack of Minshew, which led to a short field and game-tying touchdown at 14-14. He blocked a 60-yard field goal in impressive fashion, though you could argue the Colts should have punted there early in the second quarter. Garrett then forced another strip-sack of Minshew that his teammate picked up for a Cleveland touchdown on a fumble recovery in the end zone.

The teams kept exchanging scores in the fourth quarter, though the Colts failed on some chances to put the game away. They even got a go-ahead 75-yard touchdown to Michael Pittman Jr., the second time this year he got a big YAC play for a touchdown.

But the Colts punted back to Cleveland and Walker with 2:35 left, and the defense failed to put the game away. There was a strip-sack that would have done the trick, but an illegal contact penalty wiped that out in the red zone. But the next play is the scrutinized one as defensive pass interference was called on what clearly looked like an uncatchable ball in the back of the end zone:

I think that’s a really bad call against the Colts. On the other hand, a no-call would have made it 2nd-and-goal from the 8 with 33 seconds left. Not exactly a game over situation. But still, it made things easier from the 1-yard line, and it looked like Cleveland was going to botch it by throwing 3 times in a row instead of running. I know they didn’t have timeouts but play the percentages. The run is more likely going to work than Walker throwing.

On 4th-and-goal, the Browns finally ran and Kareem Hunt barely broke the plane with 15 seconds left. The Browns failed on the 2-point conversion, but it didn’t matter much at that point. Minshew was strip-sacked a third time, but the only surprise is it wasn’t Garrett again. Minshew finished with 4 turnovers for the second game in a row, though he was much better this week than last week in Jacksonville.

We’ll see where these teams finish and if this quarter proves decisive for playoff seeding. But what a wild game, and a complicated one in trying to figure out how well Minshew is playing, and how great the Cleveland defense is this year.

Also, the Browns have a huge Watson problem, but that’s a story for another day. It just amuses me that Kevin Stefanski can maximize every quarterback in his offense except the one who is supposed to be the best. Maybe that’s just karma.

Packers at Broncos: From Favre-Elway to Rodgers-Manning to THIS

Boy, if this is what it takes for Denver to win a home game under Sean Payton, then enjoy it, because there aren’t going to be many more of these wins. Green Bay flopped off its bye week with a scoreless first half, but it took Denver 2.5 quarters to find the end zone too.

Green Bay was much stronger in the second half, not unlike the 17-0 comeback against the Saints this year, and the Packers scored on three straight drives to take a 17-16 lead with 8:31 left. You had to start thinking this wasn’t Denver’s year when touchdowns like this on 4th-and-2 are happening to them:

It starts to make sense why Denver has lost 10 games in a row after having the lead at halftime. But this would not be No. 11. In fact, by coming back with a field goal drive to win the game, Denver made sure Green Bay was the first team to blow 3 fourth-quarter leads this season.

Russell Wilson did not have a great game, but he got the offense close enough for Wil Lutz to bang in his fourth field goal from 52 yards away to take a 19-17 lead with 3:50 left. That was plenty of time for Jordan Love to answer, but I think conservative calls once the Packers reached Denver territory combined with a holding penalty short-circuited the drive.

Love’s accuracy issues showed up on a 2nd-and-20 incompletion to Christian Watson, which saw the receiver go down with an apparent knee injury. On 3rd-and-2, Love just threw one up and it was intercepted to essentially end the game. The Broncos ran out every second of the clock and escaped with the 19-17 win.

Green Bay has lost back-to-back games in which it did not allow 20 points, which has not happened to the Packers since 2005 when Aaron Rodgers was a rookie on the bench. If only there was a quarterback of that caliber waiting in the wings on this Green Bay bench.

Steelers at Rams: When Coming Up Short Is Enough to Win the Game

Yes, the Steelers started the game with a 3-and-out, they had only one field goal at halftime, and T.J. Watt bailed them out with a great interception to start the third quarter, setting up a 7-yard touchdown drive.

All those things made it look like Matt Canada was perfectly representing his brand in LA after a bye week. But for the rest of the game, the Steelers actually looked like a competent offense that could get the ball to its best receivers about as well as Matthew Stafford got the ball to Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua.

While Nacua (154 yards) had a monster day, Kupp did not, catching 2-of-7 targets for 29 yards with a couple of early drops that seemed to set him up for a bad day – if it wasn’t my bets that did him in since I am a proven jinx of the highest order. Kupp’s only real contribution was on a 2-point conversion to put the Rams up 17-10.

You have to go back to Week 6 of the 2020 season to find the last time a defense held Kupp under 30 yards in a game he did not leave injured. That was against the 49ers, and he had 11 yards on 3 catches and 9 targets. This was shocking for a Pittsburgh defense that has been awful against top receivers. But Stafford and Kupp did not bring their A game for this one.

Neither did kicker Brett Maher, who missed a pair of field goals from 51 and 53 yards away in this game. Again, as someone who led a picks article off this week with Rams over 1.5 made field goals, I can’t help but feel like a total f’n jinx.

And it’s not like I did these things to root for the Steelers to win. I barely wanted to watch this game and was flipping between the Chiefs-Chargers on CBS and the RedZone channel, because I’ve grown to hate watching Canada’s offense that much.

But in Diontae Johnson’s return game from injury, he made the crucial play on a 3rd-and-8 to start the fourth quarter. He turned a short throw into a 39-yard gain. He may never score a touchdown again with Kenny Pickett as his quarterback, but he is good for a play like that from time to time. Pickett also started looking sharper on his throws to George Pickens in the second half.

The Johnson play set up Jaylen Warren for a 13-yard touchdown run to tie the game. Pickens and Johnson had big catches to set up Najee Harris for a 3-yard go-ahead touchdown run with 7:20 left.

Pittsburgh’s defense held after Stafford threw 3 straight incompletions from his 43. The Steelers had 5:28 to burn and they shockingly did it. Pickens had a 31-yard gain on a 3rd-and-3. A taunting penalty on the Steelers, something they had a few of in this game on the receivers, negated what would have been a terrible defensive pass interference penalty on the Rams on 3rd-and-8. Replaying the down, the Steelers came up 1 yard short.

Mike Tomlin had to go for the 4th-and-1 at the Los Angeles 39 with a chance to win the game. The Rams were out of timeouts and only 2:24 remained. The Steelers ran their own version of the Tush Push, and Pickett looked like he was short. The chains were brought out, and shockingly, he was just over the marker for the game-clinching first down.

The Rams were hosed.

If you watch any good replay, you can see Pickett slipped and his knee was down very quickly after getting the ball. He was short of the marker, but the refs blew the spot. Since it was outside of the 2-minute warning and the Rams were out of timeouts, Sean McVay could not challenge the play. It is not 100% certain they would have reserved the call on the field even if he did have a challenge, but he would have had a decent case of getting the ball back with a solid 2:00 to play.

It’s not even the most egregious late-game officiating blunder in a game involving Sean McVay (ask Saints fans). Remember, the Steelers were up 24-17 and Stafford would have needed to drive 60 yards for a touchdown to tie or a 2-point conversion to take the lead. But it was still a pretty bad spot and cheap ending to a game that turned out more decent than expected.

The Steelers are 4-2, and if not for coming up short to win a game, this might be viewed as their most legitimate win this season. But here they are, continuing to win games without playing their best. It shouldn’t be sustainable but given the schedule and if the health of players like Watt and Pickens allow for it, this team is going to win 9-10 games and be in the playoff mix with the rest of the AFC North.

Falcons at Buccaneers: NFC South of Heaven

The Falcons (4-3) are back in first place in the NFC South after a 16-13 win in Tampa Bay, but the game served as a solid reminder of why this is still a bad division and the NFC East runner-up is likely to notch a playoff win against the eventual winner here.

I was on Atlanta to win because I trust the offense’s ability to move the ball more than I do Tampa Bay’s right now. I may not trust the Falcons to put many drives in the end zone, but what can you say about a Tampa Bay team that has now lost 25-11 (Eagles), 20-6 (Lions), and 16-13 at home this season?

I don’t even know if I feel like commenting on the Bijan Robinson shenanigans, but it sure does look suspicious when a player who was not on the injury report has a surprise illness, then sits out most of the game until they decide to give him a carry for 3 yards with 33 seconds left in the game. What the hell was that?

But both teams made the kind of mistakes in crunch time that make them hard to trust come January. Desmond Ridder had an efficient passing stat line, but with a chance to put the game away with a touchdown run to go up 20-10, he got a little soft at the end of the run and fumbled through the end zone with 6:30 left to keep it a 13-10 game. Huge mistake.

But Baker Mayfield made a bigger mistake in field goal range with 3:46 left:

It’s plays like that that made trusting him in Tampa Bay hard this year. But did he do the Tom Brady thing and take advantage of another opportunity after his defense forced the 3-and-out? Yes, the Buccaneers drove right down the field again into kicking range. But they weren’t able to get the touchdown after a 3rd-down sack of Mayfield inside the 10, and it did not help that he threw two incompletions before that to save clock for Atlanta in a tied game.

Ridder had 2 timeouts and 45 seconds, which we know is plenty of time in this league for these kickers. After almost hooking up with Kyle Pitts for a big play, the two did it again for a bigger one at 39 yards, and that basically set up the kick. After a couple of runs, Younghoe Koo came out and drilled the field goal from 51 yards out to give Atlanta a 16-13 win.

Neither of these teams will be feared in January but remember this quarter when it comes to figuring out which one gets to host the playoff game for the NFC South.

Cardinals at Seahawks: If a Bear Shits in the Woods…

Did anyone really care that this game was going on, or that the Seahawks were in a dogfight for most of the day as an 8.5-point favorite before covering late? I think we’re over the Joshua Dobbs experimental part of the season and would prefer to see Kyler Murray return even if he is likely not in the future plans for this franchise.

Kenneth Walker failing to score twice from the 1-yard line was more of my success as a jinx against myself. The Seahawks ended up settling for a field goal and 17-10 lead, and the game stayed that way for roughly 20 minutes. Matt Prater was wide left on a 34-yard field goal for the Cardinals with 11:06 left. Later, a fake punt doomed the Cardinals, only gaining 4 yards on 4th-and-9 with 4:58 left.

Seattle, which played without D.K. Metcalf (ribs), finally put it away from there with a 48-yard field goal with 2:17 left to make it 20-10. Dobbs was sacked on a 4th-and-11 at midfield to end the game.

I know the Seahawks (4-2) are currently the No. 5 seed in the NFC, but I just can’t muster up much interest in games with Arizona right now.

Raiders at Bears: Just Put McDaniels Out of His Misery

Once again, we must figure out which is the most embarrassing loss for Josh McDaniels with the Raiders:

  • Was it when he blew a 16-point lead in the fourth quarter to Arizona after Kyler Murray needed 20 seconds of scrambling to convert a 2-point conversion?
  • Was it losing to Jeff Saturday in his first game as interim coach of the Colts when he had no previous coaching experience in the NFL or college football? Saturday never won another game.
  • Was it when he blew a 16-3 lead in the fourth quarter to Baker Mayfield, who signed with the Rams 48 hours before the game?

Or is it when McDaniels lost 30-12 and wire-to-wire to a 1-5 Chicago team that was an underdog with an undrafted rookie quarterback nicknamed T-Bag?

No matter which one you choose, the fact that there are this many contenders just 24 games into McDaniels’ tenure should tell us that he should be fired as this is not working out.

Another sign it’s not working out: Raiders have not scored 20 points on offense in any game this season. They only reached 21 points against the Patriots last week on a safety. This is the longest streak to start a season since the 2009 Redskins made it 8 games without 20 offensive points.

I’m not even sure pointing out Brian Hoyer started for an injured Jimmy Garoppolo is that noteworthy. Did I mention the Bears started Tyson Bagent? Hoyer is McDaniels’ guy going back to the Patriots. He knows his offense. He just didn’t execute it well against one of the worst defenses in the league. Meanwhile, the Bears kept things easy for Bagent with short throws, and he managed the game well while D’Onta Foreman scored 3 touchdowns.

The NFL can do better than giving second head coaching jobs to people like Dennis Allen (Saints) and McDaniels when it was so bad on the first try. It was not a fluke that it did not work out the first time, and coaching under Sean Payton and Bill Belichick is not a proven path to coaching well on your own.

Commanders at Giants: You Can’t Spell “Sack Machine” Without S-A-M

Both offenses are lousy at blocking, but I picked the Giants because I figured Tyrod Taylor would manage the pressure better than Sam Howell, and this Jack Del Rio-coached defense is worse than what the Giants have.

There were 10 sacks in the game, but Washington (6) took more, and Taylor did help his team to a 14-0 lead where they just had to hang on for the second half. But this game was FUGLY. There were more possessions (27) than points (21).

The Commanders may have been scoreless if the Giants didn’t muff a punt and set up a 21-yard field for Washington’s only touchdown. But that was it for the scoring. The Giants blocked a 27-yard field goal early in the fourth quarter, Saquon Barkley lost a fumble inside the 10 yard line on the next drive, and Jahan Dotson dropped a 4th-and-5 pass that he had a shot at catching inside the 5-yard line with under a minute left. The Giants took knees to end it from there.

For as bad as the offenses were, at least the final quarter was interesting. But I don’t know how much longer Washington can go before Howell is injured or replaced. He is on pace for 97 sacks this season.

Next week: A trio of prime-time games with Bucs-Bills, Bears-Chargers, and Lions-Raiders? This season really hates the viewers. The closest we get to “good” games this week involve the AFC North with Steelers-Jaguars, Bengals-49ers, and Browns-Seahawks, and chances are at least one will be a total rout.

NFL Stat Oddity: Week 5

~ Scott ~ 16 Comments

Well, I guess we’ll have to wait until Week 13 for the real Game of the Year in the NFC this season when the last two unbeatens in the league (49ers and Eagles) meet in Philadelphia. That rematch of last year’s championship game is still the only time Brock Purdy has lost a start in the NFL.

The Cowboys were so outclassed by the 49ers on Sunday night that Bill Belichick and Sean Payton should send Jerry Jones a gift basket for taking some of the heat and attention away from them suffering the lowest points of their careers.

It started as a pretty weird day with Buffalo losing to the London Jaguars after winning their last 3 games by 28+ points each. Then the Ravens gave a game away to the Steelers, the Colts are 3-2 after flipping the script on Tennessee, the Chiefs almost lost Taylor Swift Travis Kelce for the season, and the 49ers showed us what a super team looks like on Sunday night.

But there is a growing one-sidedness to this season. We only had 1 lead change in the fourth quarter in Week 4, and this week we only had two before Monday Night Football. Only 3 of the last 35 games have had a fourth-quarter lead change. That rate should usually be around 25% of games, not 8.6%. We’re going through a drought of exciting games as it mostly has been one team jumping out to a lead and hanging on.

In Week 5, there were only 7 games with a comeback opportunity, which would be the third week in a row without 8 opportunities. But I have a feeling Monday night will add one more. Before we get there, let’s recap Sunday’s action.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Cowboys at 49ers: Game of the Ye-Yeah It Was Another McCarthy Clusterf*ck

If this was a measuring stick game, then the 49ers took the stick and beat the Cowboys to death with it. They also put the rest of the league on notice that this is the best team in the NFL right now.

The closest Dallas came to staying with the 49ers on the scoreboard was for the 3 minutes and 50 seconds that this game remained 0-0 before George Kittle scored his first of three touchdowns on the night. Dallas trailed by at least 7 points for the final 56:10 on the way to a 42-10 loss.

I’d say it reminded me of the times when Mike McCarthy’s Packers went 0-4 against Jim Harbaugh’s 49ers in 2012-13, but those games were never this lopsided. This was much worse than the last two postseason losses for Dallas against the 49ers, which was supposed to be the motivating factor for the Cowboys to look better in this matchup if San Francisco is the new measuring stick in the NFC. Remember, it was 12-12 in the fourth quarter in the divisional round last year.

But it is looking like McCarthy will move to 0-7 against the 49ers in the years where they make the playoffs. This was the worst performance yet on both sides of the ball.

Save for one 78-yard touchdown drive, Dak Prescott played an awful game, finishing with 3 interceptions, 3 sacks, and only 153 passing yards before he was yanked in the final quarter of a blowout. Also, so much for Tony Pollard making an impact after he was injured in the playoff game last January. He had 8 carries for 29 yards, getting outrushed by Deebo Samuel (30 yards).

While the Dallas defense did come up with 3 stops in a row early in the game, they followed that by allowing 5 touchdowns on the next 6 drives. Good night, Irene. Brock Purdy looked more like the quarterback I saw shred Pittsburgh in Week 1 with a passing clinic as he ran his record to 13-0 in games where he attempts 20 passes. Purdy had 4 touchdown passes, confirming the Cowboys were no longer playing the Giants, Jets, Cardinals, and Patriots.

Christian McCaffrey scored a touchdown for the 14th game in a row despite the fact he only averaged 2.7 yards per carry and had a season-low 2 catches. But there were not even moral victories for Dallas in this one. This was the worst performance any team this year’s had against the 49ers.

It may only be a game in Week 5 and crazier things have happened before, but I don’t know how any Dallas fan could not be extremely pessimistic about the rest of the season after this. The Cowboys (3-2) still have to play the Eagles (twice), Bills, Dolphins, Lions, Chargers, and Seahawks. For a team that’s already lost to the Cardinals, we might as well mention they play the Commanders (twice) and Rams too.

Dallas was my Super Bowl loser pick in the NFC this year, and losing this game in Week 5 was part of my script. But even I would start walking that pick back after what I saw on Sunday night.

Meanwhile, the 49ers’ biggest question this year was if Purdy is a legitimate starter or if last year was a fluke. After Week 5, I think we have to admit he is capable of leading this team all the way.

The 49ers are 17-1 in their last 18 games, and you know what happened to the quarterback position in the only loss. They are only the 5th team to start a season at least 5-0 with 30 points scored in every game, joining the 2000 Rams, 2007 Patriots, 2013 Broncos, and 2018 Rams. Those last three teams all lost the Super Bowl that year, and the 2000 Rams lost a wild card game.

There’s a lot of season left, but we are witnessing something historic with the 49ers. As for Dallas, it is looking like the status quo, which means Macarena was on the Billboard Hot 100 more recently than the Cowboys were in the NFC Championship Game.

Ravens at Steelers: Respect the Rivalry

People who do not respect this rivalry do not understand that no matter what talent gap exists between these teams, they are always capable of playing a tight, low-scoring game that goes down to the wire.

Having said that, I am still in shock that the Ravens took a 10-0 lead with 12:23 left in the 2nd quarter and never scored again in a 17-10 loss. It is no understatement to say the Ravens left 30+ points on the field in one of the most egregious losses in the history of this rivalry. This is right up there with Kris Brown missing 4 field goals for Pittsburgh in 2001.

I’ll blame everyone on Baltimore except for Justin Tucker. Lamar Jackson was sharp early, but his receivers were terrible with a handful of drops before halftime. After the pressure increased as the game wore on, Jackson’s accuracy and decision making also fell apart, and he became another scapegoat in this terrible loss.

I have no idea what John Harbaugh and the Ravens were thinking to end the first half. Instead of bringing out Tucker for an easy 41-yard field goal on a 4th-and-2, the offense ran a play, and Jackson hurried a terrible throw that fell incomplete. There goes 3 points.

The Ravens may have escaped this one if not for a big blocked punt in the fourth quarter that almost turned into a touchdown, but the Steelers settled for a safety and 10-5 deficit. It was running back Jaylen Warren rather than Najee Harris who sparked the offense to get a field goal and make it 10-8. But even after getting a three-and-out, the Steelers fumbled the punt return and gave the Ravens a golden opportunity with a first-and-goal at the 7.

But on 3rd-and-5, Jackson forced a pass in the end zone to Odell Beckham Jr. and Joey Porter Jr. made a monster interception with 4:06 left. Down 10-8, Kenny Pickett is good for about one scoring drive a game. Sometimes they are timely ones like his game-winning touchdown drive against the Ravens last year.

This didn’t seem like a spot where he would step up after the offense struggled again, but he did. George Pickens had a huge quarter and came alive with two 20-yard plays. The last was a shocker as you would think the Steelers would set up a game-winning field goal with no time left, but they went for the dagger and Pickett hit Pickens deep after he beat Marlon Humphrey for a 41-yard touchdown with 1:17 left. Pittsburgh led 14-10 for the first time all day.

Jackson had plenty of time to answer, but on the second play of the drive, Alex Highsmith forced him to fumble on a sack, and T.J. Watt was there for the recovery. The Steelers saved the Ravens 40 seconds with a penalty on a kneeldown, a huge mistake. But the field goal made it 17-10 with 49 seconds left.

Things were not going well for the Ravens on the drive, and Watt made sure he was going to end it this time with a sack of Jackson on 4th-and-7 at his own 28. Game over. The Steelers somehow survived this one.

The 2023 Steelers are 3-2 and in first place in the AFC North, and I just find that so comical because this offense continues to suck. Frankly, the defense isn’t that good either, but this team’s magic sauce right now is getting quarterbacks like Deshaun Watson, Jimmy Garoppolo, and Jackson – he added to his poor track record vs. Pittsburgh – to make enough mistakes to allow them to steal a win late. The Steelers have given up 30 points and been dominated by the 49ers and Texans, two teams running the Kyle Shanahan offensive system with quarterbacks (Brock Purdy and C.J. Stroud) who seemingly can’t throw interceptions right now.

But give them a sack merchant or a risky thrower, and they are going to get enough big plays from the likes of T.J. Watt, Alex Highsmith, and Minkah Fitzpatrick to make the difference. Maybe Porter Jr. is the latest defender to save the day.

I’m still shocked the Ravens failed to score on their final 9 drives despite numerous opportunities to do so. Hell, I’m still shocked they watched Gardner Minshew pull an Orlovsky and they still lost that game to the Colts. Ditto on Sunday with the way the Steelers fumbled a punt at the 7-yard line late in the game.

Who wins the AFC North? Damned if I know at this point. It’s a mess of a division this year.

Chiefs at Vikings: Repeating Is Hard

Winning a Super Bowl is hard. Winning two in a row seems impossible these days in the NFL. But you know what might be even harder? Winning a ton of close games in back-to-back years.

The 2008-09 Colts pulled it off when Peyton Manning was at the height of his team-carrying powers, but most teams regress hard in close games the following year. The Vikings are feeling that now. After starting his career 8-0 at game-winning drive opportunities, Vikings coach Kevin O’Connell is 0-5 going back to the wild card playoff loss to the Giants.

This was another failed comeback, but unlike last year, this was another difficult situation with the Chiefs leading 27-13 to start the fourth quarter. Even though it looked like Travis Kelce fell victim to a brutal non-contact leg injury in the first half, he found a way to come back on a bad ankle in the third quarter and caught several passes before scoring another touchdown, his first since turning 34 the other day.

Just when you thought the Vikings had some momentum, Kelce came back to finish the game while Justin Jefferson was out with a hamstring injury. He played much of the game, but the Chiefs held him to just 28 yards.

But the Chiefs rarely make it easy on themselves. After the Vikings made it 27-20, the Chiefs looked like they were going to go for a 4th-and-1 at their own 47 with 9:05 left after the Vikings used their last timeout. But the Chiefs were only trying to draw the Vikings offsides before they punted.

That’s the kind of decision I still don’t get with Andy Reid. You have Mahomes and you still had Kelce playing. Why not just go for it? Chances are you will convert, then you can end up adding more points and get this to a 2-score lead with little time left for the team out of timeouts.

I don’t know if it’s false trust in the defense or just the old hubris of doing things the way they’ve always done them. But this is the kind of situation I’d like to see the Chiefs start going for. Instead, they gave Cousins a shot at tying the game.

Without Jefferson, that was going to be tough. Inexcusably, the Vikings were flagged for delay of game when they wanted to go for a 4th-and-7 at the Kansas City 19. The respect for Mahomes’ ability to run out the clock is crazy but justified, because the Vikings still went for the 4th-and-12 instead of taking a field goal with 4:54 left. The Jaguars did something very similar in Week 2 against the Chiefs. Before these two plays, you have to go back to 1999 to find the last time an offense, down 7-8 points with more than 4:00 left in the fourth quarter and the ball inside the opponent 30, went for a 4th-and-10 or longer instead of kicking a field goal.

The Chiefs brought pressure, Cousins just threw one up for the end zone, and the flag for DPI was rightfully picked up as the pass wasn’t even close. There could have been a penalty on the Chiefs for their player taking his helmet off after the play. T.J. Watt was called for that in Pittsburgh in the early slate. We’ve seen this get called and we’ve seen it go uncalled. Refs are not consistent on it. I’m not a big fan of the rule period, so I don’t mind that one being let go. It still happened after possession changed, so it would have remained Kansas City’s ball.

But this time, Mahomes did not bleed the clock. He thought he could pass into the flat for a game-clinching first down, but the Vikings were there to stop it short. The Chiefs punted and Cousins had to drive 81 yards in 1:07. Crazier things have happened. It looked like Cousins had a decent shot at a Hail Mary from just 38 yards away on the final snap, but the Chiefs put that to rest right away with a game-ending sack of Cousins.

The Chiefs are 4-1 and seem to have avoided the worst with Kelce’s injury. It is a quick turnaround to play Denver on Thursday night, but you know this team will have something cooked up. But it gets scary when you see Kelce having injury issues and Mahomes has narrowly avoided some serious hits too. The repeat dream is over if this connection is not available to the Chiefs.

Bills vs. Jaguars: Josh Allen Loses Again to His Namesake

Did it help that Jacksonville stayed in London after winning there (albeit at a different venue) last week? Did it hurt that Buffalo did not arrive until Friday? I don’t know what impact, if any, it had but it probably had something to do with the Jaguars jumping out to an 11-0 lead against a team that was so dominant since Week 2.

The London travel difference had me worried about this game for Buffalo. I also remembered the weird 9-6 loss the Bills had to Urban Meyer’s Jags in 2021 when Josh Allen the quarterback imploded against Josh Allen the defender.

But this was a weird Buffalo loss as it was not the turnovers that did in the Bills this time. Their only turnovers came in the fourth quarter, and while Allen threw an interception in an 11-7 game, it was on a 3-and-15 and served as a good punt. The only other turnover was an ill-advised lateral in the final seconds when the Bills needed a miracle anyway.

The Bills punted 6 times before the fourth quarter, something the Bills have done only one other time since 2020 (7 early punts vs. 2021 Jets). That’s impressive for the Jacksonville defense, but oddly enough, I was a little more impressed with the way the Bills kept Jacksonville from scoring despite so many defensive injuries. They lost Matt Milano and Von Miller in this game among others. But twice they were able to force Trevor Lawrence into a fumble deep in scoring territory.

Unfortunately, the injuries did catch up to Buffalo as Travis Etienne burned them late in the game on his way to 136 rushing yards and 2 touchdowns. The Bills only rushed for 29 yards on 14 carries, and that even includes Allen’s contributions as a runner (4 carries for 14 yards and a touchdown). Gabe Davis and Stefon Diggs both hit 100 yards, but the Bills were stuck on 7 points for too long and caught playing catchup to a Jacksonville team that showed up to play.

The penalties were also out of control in the fourth quarter on both sides. One Buffalo touchdown drive saw 6 plays get flagged for something. But the most egregious one was a roughing the passer to wipe out a sack of Allen on a 3rd-and-1 that would have turned it into 4th-and-12 and likely a field goal attempt late in an 18-7 game. That whole play was screwed up because there was so much uncertainty whether it was 3rd-and-1 or 1st-and-10 for Buffalo. The Bills caught a break with that call, then wasted it after Etienne broke loose for a 35-yard touchdown to regain a 12-point lead.

The Bills did a great job driving 75 yards in 45 seconds for another touchdown, but the onside kick is impossible these days. By the time they got it back in a 25-20 game, they had to go 94 yards in 22 seconds. That’s when Diggs tried a lateral that was fumbled to end the game.

The Bills having a London letdown after last week’s huge win is not that surprising, especially when you consider the defensive injuries. Is it the kind of loss that adds to this team being untrustworthy in big games? Well, it was still a hell of a lot better than what the Cowboys did on Sunday night. I’m not that worried about Buffalo yet, but the injuries definitely need to chill out.

Bengals at Cardinals: Ja’Marr Chase to the Rescue

The Cardinals were my upset pick for Week 5, but I haven’t been able to get a Cincinnati game right since Week 2 when I said the Ravens would beat them.

Going to Arizona, a team playing better than expected, without Tee Higgins (ribs) did not seem like an ideal spot for Joe Burrow to get right, but he definitely knew where Ja’Marr Chase was all game. Chase had no touchdowns coming into the game but scored 3 here on his way to 15 catches and 192 yards. That’s a career game for most wide receivers, but it’s not even the best Chase game we have ever seen.

It was just the best one in 2023 as the league’s worst offense finally put things together to have a successful outing. But the game really turned on Arizona when the defense got a goal-line stand only for Joshua Dobbs to force a pick-six from his own end zone in the second quarter.

The Bengals took the lead and never looked back. Arizona had no turnovers in the last 3 games, but Dobbs had 3 turnovers in this game. The Cardinals also lost James Conner to an injury, which is not uncommon for him.

There were some bright moments for Arizona after a pick and some sacks of Burrow, but overall, the team was outclassed by a Cincinnati team that has not been playing well this year at all.

Does this mean the Bengals are “back” this year? I have no idea. I thought things were going to be better after the Los Angeles win, but then they shit the bed in Tennessee the next week. But they get the Seahawks next week, and both Cincinnati wins are against the NFC West so far. Maybe an unfamiliar opponent will help in addition to probably getting Higgins back.

Eagles at Rams: We’re Going with Brotherly Shove Now?

With the growing coverage and controversy around the “Tush Push” or “Brotherly Shove” quarterback sneak, this game was a great example of just how much better the Eagles are at it than everyone else. That strong offensive line combined with the strength of Jalen Hurts just makes it look unstoppable even when the defense knows exactly what is coming. Hurts just pushes through until he gets the first down.

He did it again in epic fashion before halftime with the Eagles down and only 2 seconds left on the clock. But when this team is at the 1-yard line, Hurts scoring is almost automatic. They called their sneak and he scored again to take a 17-14 lead after a good half saw Dallas Goedert and Cooper Kupp dominating for their respective teams. Kupp made his season debut and did not miss a beat even with sharing the ball with rookie sensation Puka Nacua.

But to the detriment of my best parlay on Sunday, the second half was a flop for scoring:

  • Stafford was hit for an intentional grounding at midfield on third down.
  • Hurts was intercepted in the end zone on a brilliant catch by Ahkello Witherspoon.
  • A screen to Puka on a third down at the Philadelphia 43 was blown up and nearly a lost fumble for the Rams.
  • The Eagles settled for a 26-yard field goal to take a 20-14 lead with 12:29 left to play.
  • Stafford missed a deep third down to Kupp, then the Eagles burned more clock for another field goal with 4:06 left.
  • Haason Reddick sacked Stafford on back-to-back plays, including a 4th-and-12 with 2:46 left.
  • Hurts converted another 3rd-and-1 with the sneak, but the Eagles were eventually stopped on a 4th-down run with only 61 seconds left.
  • The Rams were in no hurry to seriously try scoring as the clock expired with the ball inside their 40.

Just a brutal way to lose out on what looked like an easy over, but each team only had 8 possessions, and the Rams failed to score on their last 5. The Eagles had two field goal drives that consumed over 8:00 each. It was another efficient performance for a team that is rounding into shape, but they will have to play even better than this to knock off the 49ers in the NFC this year.

Titans at Colts: AFC South Dark Horse?

This one shocked me as I did not expect Zack Moss (195 scrimmage yards and 2 touchdowns) to be the dominant back in a game with Derrick Henry and Jonathan Taylor. In fact, I didn’t expect the Colts to run well at all against the Titans, who were allowing a league-low 2.9 yards per carry coming into Week 5.

That is what the Titans do going back some time now. They shut down the run and force you to throw, which is not something the Colts are cut out for like the old days. But they were proving that all wrong in this game as they ran the ball at will on the Titans with Moss getting most of the work as they eased Taylor back, and the passing game was solid with Gardner Minshew replacing an injured (again) Anthony Richardson. The Colts were 20-of-26 passing for 253 yards and only 1 sack. The Colts scored 23 points on 7 drives and gained at least 40 yards on their last 6 drives.

But the other side of the coin was the Tennessee running game, which stalled with 20 handoffs for 77 yards. Henry only had 43 yards and was stuffed on the play of the game on a 4th-and-1 at the Colts 5 in a 20-16 game with 8:03 left.

The Colts had an epic 14-play drive for a field goal that only left Ryan Tannehill a minute to drive 75 yards in a 23-16 game. Things were not going well, and he was intercepted with 10 seconds left to secure the win for the Colts, who are now 3-2.

This will go down as another low-scoring road loss for the Titans, but the game was more offensive than it looks with the tiny number of possessions for each team. But that just magnifies the 4th-down stop the Colts had on Henry.

With a game at Jacksonville next week where the Colts haven’t won since 2014, the team is in an odd position where they might be better with Minshew at quarterback than the rookie. But more than anything, they might have some real durability concerns with Richardson, who has already failed to finish 3 games due to 3 different injuries. He also missed a full game in Week 3 after a concussion. Maybe he can shake off these early injuries like Matthew Stafford did in Detroit years ago, but for now, Richardson is not someone the team can count on to stay in the game.

After what happened to end the careers of Peyton Manning and Andrew Luck in Indy, this is definitely a worrisome look. But Minshew is one of the best backups in the league, and the Colts already gave the Jaguars a tough game in Week 1.

Jets at Broncos: Hackett Gets the Last Laugh

Oh, did we learn some things in this one.

  • Sean Payton can talk the talk, but he can’t walk the walk anymore, going 0-3 at home to Jimmy Garoppolo, Sam Howell, and Zach Wilson.
  • Zach Wilson is not as good as Justin Fields at exploiting a terrible defense, but he played a serviceable game until a bad luck interception stuck to a defender late in the game.
  • Nathaniel Hackett and the Jets finally unleashed Breece Hall and he answered with 194 scrimmage yards and a touchdown.
  • Russell Wilson fell in love with scrambling and passes to running backs against this tough defense, but when push came to shove late in the game, he couldn’t find his wideouts to get a game-tying field goal.
  • Denver’s season is over at 1-4 with both Kansas City games coming up and a game with Buffalo soon.

Both offenses thrived on their running backs in this one. While not getting shredded by Zach Wilson was a triumph for the Denver defense, it was still a lousy game overall as the Jets piled up over 400 yards after driving for at least 40 yards on 7 straight drives to end the game.

But a late interception in field goal range gave Russell Wilson and the Broncos a chance from their own 3 in a 24-21 game with 2:14 left. Long field but plenty of time. Wilson did get the offense out to the 41, but with the Jets getting closer and closer in the fourth quarter, they finally got Wilson with a forced fumble that was picked up and returned for a touchdown to ice the game.

Should the Jets have gone down and kneeled it out to win 24-21? Probably, but you can tell it was personal for this team to stick it to Payton and the Broncos in their own building. It’s not like Wilson was going to put up 10 points in 29 seconds.

The better team won, and with the way Denver approached this must-win game, perhaps it is the better coaching staff too in New York. Hackett was unquestionably awful as Denver’s coach last year, but Payton is doing a shockingly bad job that could go down as being even worse.

I never would have guessed things would start this poorly for Denver this year. Fortunately, losing at home to Hackett and the Jets (without Aaron Rodgers) is probably the worst it can get this year. That’s saying something for a team that already had a game where it allowed 70 points and 726 yards.

Giants at Dolphins: Run Those Bums Off the Field

Look, the Giants are just trash. This team has played like shit for 9-of-10 halves this season, only coming back against Arizona’s nameless defense when that team was still formulating its tanking plan for Caleb Williams.

The Giants finally scored a first-half touchdown in this game, and of course it was on a 102-yard pick-six as Tua Tagovailoa got greedy before the half. A second interception in the third quarter also set up the Giants for a 4-yard field goal drive, so 10 of those points are directly on the Miami passing game.

But nothing says trash Giants team like a 10-play, 18-yard field goal drive in the fourth quarter. The Dolphins were able to cover the 13-point spread without playing anywhere near their A game.

But with these ridiculous speed demons on the field, how could they not beat the Giants by a couple of touchdowns? Miami had plays that gained 64, 69, and 76 yards, and it was basically all about the speed of Tyreek Hill and De’Von Achane. The latter now has a run of at least 55 yards in three straight games. He’s already a third of the way to Derrick Henry’s career total of 55-yard runs (9) and a quarter of the way to Chris Johnson (12). It’s Week 5 of his rookie year. His speed is just absurd to watch, and it is almost unfair that the league let Miami draft him in the third round.

Thanks to the explosive play of Achane and Hill, the Dolphins averaged 9.7 yards per play, a huge number we rarely see. Miami is the first team in NFL history to have two games in a season where the offense averaged at least 9.5 yards per play. Only five other offenses in the Super Bowl era had multiple games in a season averaging over 9.0 yards per play. Oddly enough, the 2018 Dolphins with a whole different cast was one of those teams.

Miami has averaged 8.31 yards per play over the last 5 games. The only team in NFL history with a better 5-game span was the 2000 Rams (8.51).

It looks like the 2000 Rams are the team these Dolphins are chasing in the record books. Miami’s 2,568 yards of offense are the most ever through 5 games in a season in NFL history, surpassing the 2000 Rams (2,527 yards).

But if you look at the 135 teams to have at least 2,000 yards of offense through 5 games, only 8 of those teams (5.9%) won the championship that season, and almost half of them only had to win one playoff game to do it back in the day (1941 Bears, 1951 Rams, 1958 Colts, 1988 49ers, 1995 Cowboys, 2009 Saints, 2019 Chiefs, and 2021 Rams).

For Miami’s sake, you want to be more like the 1999 or 2001 Rams than the 2000 team that had a horrible defense, turned the ball over too much, and lost a wild card game to the Saints. But the defense at least dominated the Giants, Daniel Jones left with a neck injury, and the Dolphins can beat up on a winless Carolina team next week to get to 5-1.

We’ll be history watching with this offense all season, but historically, this does not yet have the makings of a championship team. But that speed is sure fun to watch dominate the bad teams.

Texans at Falcons: Promising Day for Desmond Ridder

If you wanted a game with solid quarterback play and multiple lead changes, this is one of your only choices the last couple of weeks. Neither team was able to break 2.8 yards per carry, but their quarterbacks avoided turnovers. In fact, C.J. Stroud was able to set the record for most pass attempts without an interception to begin his career.

Stroud also did a more than respectable job in the first game-winning drive attempt of his career. Down 18-12, he engineered a 75-yard touchdown drive, finding tight end Dalton Schultz for an 18-yard score with 1:49 left to take a 19-18 lead.

The only knock you can make is that the Texans went 3-and-out on their previous drive, which led to an Atlanta field goal and 18-12 deficit. By only going up a point with so much time left, it left the Falcons some low-hanging fruit to simply get into range for a game-winning field goal with no time left.

That’s exactly what they did as Desmond Ridder had the best game of his NFL career with 329 passing yards on 28-of-37 passing. He also ran for a touchdown earlier in the game. Ridder ended up leading two go-ahead drives in this one, throwing a touchdown pass to Bijan Robinson early in the quarter and then he was 5-for-5 for 44 yards on the game-winning field goal drive. Younghoe Koo was good from 37 yards away with no time left in the 21-19 win.

It was a very good day for Ridder when you consider the running game was held to 86 yards on 32 carries. He finally got Kyle Pitts involved with a game-high 87 yards on 7-of-11 passing. He finished strong even after his teammates fumbled on back-to-back drives in the third quarter. The Falcons can win with a quarterback like this, but Ridder will have to show he can do it more often.

Saints at Patriots: Belichick Can’t Tell a Single Soul That His Soul’s Gone

I said this would be the worst New England team in the 21st century. But 34-0 at home to Derek Carr a week after losing 38-3 in Dallas? The 2023 Patriots are only the 9th team since the merger to lose back-to-back games by 34 points. The last to do it was the 2019 Dolphins, a team accused of tanking.

I doubt Bill Belichick is actively tanking when he’s trying to get the all-time wins record without getting fired by Robert Kraft first, but this is a mess. Mac Jones had 3 more turnovers, including another awful pick-six as the first score of the game, a 25-yard return by Tyrann Mathieu. The second interception was not his fault at all, but there are a lot of problems with this team now and Belichick is out of solutions.

For one, you need talent, and his roster might be battling Arizona for the worst talent in the league. When you take Matt Judon and Christian Gonzalez away from the defense, that leaves a very bland lineup that cannot provide the necessary carnage to give this weak offense a shot.

This game was over at halftime. The Patriots are the only team since 1991 to get shut out at home while going 1-for-14 (or worse) on third down. The 8 first downs are the fewest by the Patriots since Belichick took the job in 2000.

Can it get lower than this? The Patriots (1-4) go back to Las Vegas next week where Belichick can fall to 0-3 against Josh McDaniels in his career.

Panthers at Lions: By Air and Ground

The 2022 Lions had a respectable season, but one of the biggest eyesores was that 37-23 loss in Carolina where they were outrushed 320-45. On Sunday, the Lions got some revenge in a complete team effort, 42-24 win despite not having Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jahmyr Gibbs available on offense.

But the Lions showed that their other draft picks and additions are more than enough to beat a bad Carolina team that has still never had a fourth-quarter lead this season. David Montgomery basically gave the middle finger to the Gibbs truthers with a 42-yard touchdown run on his first carry as he finished with another 109 yards on the ground. Rookie tight end Sam LaPorta scored two touchdowns and looks great.

The defense held Carolina to 99 rushing yards and picked off Bryce Young twice, including an incredible one-handed snag in the backfield by Aidan Hutchinson. I’m impressed with a defensive lineman who now has 4 interceptions in his first 22 games. Even J.J. Watt only had 3 of those in his career, and that includes his memorable pick-6 off Andy Dalton in a playoff game his rookie year (2011 AFC wild card).

The Lions (4-1) are doing very well and will get a decent road test in Tampa Bay next week. It is too early to talk 0-17 for the Panthers (0-5), but with a trip to Miami next, you can count on 0-6 going into the bye. But they’ll have shots against the Texans/Colts/Bears out of that to get their first win.

Next week: Quick turnaround for the wounded Chiefs as they look to make it 16 in a row against Denver on Thursday night. You will not get me up early to watch Titans-Ravens overseas. Seahawks-Bengals got much more interesting with the Cincinnati one, and I have no idea which team to trust in that one. I’m sure Nick Bosa will be in rare form against Deshaun Watson, and with the Eagles facing the Jets, I think there’s a solid shot we have two 6-0 teams in a week.  

NFL Stat Oddity: Week 3

~ Scott ~ 17 Comments

Once is an accident. Twice is a coincidence. Three times is a pattern.

The NFL’s 2023 season hit a pivotal Week 3 that should start to separate the fakes from the competitors after a couple of interesting weeks. By Sunday’s end, a few things are emerging as clear:

  • The Chiefs and Bills are still contenders, but Miami has the best speed in the league and one of the only coaches with a brain.
  • The 49ers are still a cut above Dallas in the NFC, and we’ll see how the Eagles look Monday night in a game with Tampa Bay (!) that should produce just the 3rd team to start 3-0 this year, joining the Dolphins and 49ers.
  • The 2021 quarterback draft class is a major mess with Zach Wilson and Mac Jones dueling to a 15-10 finish, Justin Fields didn’t throw for 100 yards in a 41-10 loss in Kansas City, and even Trevor Lawrence is just 1-2 this year after the Jaguars looked bad in another loss to the Texans.

After Week 2 was so high scoring and close (12 games had a comeback opportunity), you had to expect some regression with more blowouts and lower scores, especially with an underwhelming schedule that had half the games with a team favored by a touchdown or better.

But three teams lost as a favorite of at least 7.5 points: Jaguars vs. Texans (+7.5), Ravens vs. Colts (+8.5), and Cowboys vs. Cardinals (+12.5). That hasn’t happened in one week since Week 10 of the 2021 season. There were only 7 such upsets all of last season.

There were also just 6 games with a comeback opportunity (MNF pending) and 3 games with a fourth-quarter lead change, but at least Chargers-Vikings lived up to expectations.

But we have to start with the game that presents something that hasn’t been done in nearly 60 years.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Broncos at Dolphins: Speed Kills Denver

It was always reasonable to expect Denver to regress on defense and improve on offense under Sean Payton this year, but Sweet Christ, 70-20?

Unless they were putting a jetpack on Justin Simmons and Frank Clark, who missed the game, and everyone else on the Denver defense, they weren’t catching these Miami speedsters on Sunday. The Broncos even caught a break with Jaylen Waddle out with a concussion.

We knew the Dolphins had the best offensive performance in Week 1 against the Chargers, but the hype train at least should have slowed down a bit after a closer to average game in New England with 24 points.

But on Sunday, the Dolphins made history in their home opener with 10 touchdowns on their 14 possessions. These were the only teams to score 70 points in NFL history before Sunday:

  • 1940 Bears at Redskins in NFL Championship Game (W 73-0): 7 rushing TDs, 3 interception return TDs, 1 passing TD
  • 1950 Rams vs. Colts (W 70-27): 5 passing TDs, 4 rushing TDs, 1 kick return TD
  • 1966 Redskins vs. Giants (W 72-41): 4 rushing TDs, 3 passing TDs, 1 fumble return TD, 1 punt return TD, 1 interception return TD, 1 FG
  • 2023 Dolphins vs. Broncos (W 70-20): 5 passing TDs, 5 rushing TDs

If you’re thinking what I’m thinking from this breakdown, then we have history here. The Dolphins just set the record for most offensive points in an NFL game with 70.

The 1940 Bears didn’t get to 73 without the defense scoring 3 TDs. The 1950 Rams had a kick return early in the game to help them get to 70. The 1966 Redskins also had 3 return TDs, and they decided to kick their field goal at the end while already leading 69-41.

The Dolphins were all offensive scores, and they got to 70 with 8:01 left to play. They even had a chance to tie the official record of 73 points with a late field goal but passed. While there were 2 drives that started inside the Denver 8, there was no shortage of yards in this performance either.

Miami’s 726 yards only trail the 1951 Rams, who had 735 yards against the New York Yanks in that infamous Friday game where Norm Van Brocklin passed for 554 yards. Third place is a Pittsburgh team that gained 683 yards (what Matt Canada calls September) against the Cardinals in 1958, so these are the only two 700-yard games in NFL history.

It was an incredible display of speed as Miami had 350 rushing yards and 376 net passing yards. Even backup quarterback Mike White threw a 68-yard touchdown pass in the game. Tua Tagovailoa was 23-of-26 for 309 yards and 4 touchdowns.

But the biggest surprises were the running backs. One thing that was lacking about Mike McDaniel’s offense last year was the running game, which you thought might be strong as he brought over the Shanahan system to Miami. But it rarely delivered, and it also was nothing special in LA in Week 1.

But this game unleashed Raheem Mostert and rookie Devon Achane. It was actually Achane who finished with 203 rushing yards in this one, but both backs scored 4 touchdowns, an incredible feat. Achane had 233 yards from scrimmage and 4 touchdowns. Mostert had 142 yards from scrimmage and 3 touchdowns. That is a combined 375 yards and 8 touchdowns from the two running backs.

If you can name a better running back performance from a team in NFL history, I’d love to hear it. I used to think the gold standard was when Priest Holmes and Derrick Blaylock combined for 316 yards and 8 touchdowns for the 2004 Chiefs against Atlanta.

Was this the best offensive performance in NFL history? I think for purely scoring points, it would be hard to argue against the only offense to put in 70 points. Miami’s 10.22 yards per play is also the 3rd-best mark on record, only trailing the 1972 Jets (10.61) against the Colts in that classic Joe Namath-Johnny Unitas shootout, and the 2017 Chiefs (10.30) managed to do it in a losing effort against the Jets.

The only game I could really put above it is what the 2021 Bills did in the wild card round against the Patriots. They scored 47 points (2 XP failed) by scoring 7 touchdowns on their 7 drives. The 8th possession was just a kneeldown drive with the game decided. Given they did that in a playoff game where it was single-digit temperatures, and against a Belichick defense (the guy who held Miami with Waddle to 24 last week), I’d have to give 7-for-7 an edge. We cannot pretend Miami did not get stopped on a 4-and-out in their own territory in the 2nd quarter, and the offense went 3-and-out in the first possession after Tua exited. It wasn’t as perfect as what Buffalo did.

Go figure, that sets up a nice argument for Bills-Dolphins in Week 4.

But the speed and inability of Denver to keep up with those players was a sight to behold. We barely even acknowledged Denver, which got one of the best halves out of Russell Wilson, and they still trailed 35-13 for it. Brutal game for Denver to fall to 0-3 and basically become an afterthought at this point.

Hard to imagine this won’t be the peak of the season for Miami’s offense, but with so many big games left to come, they are going to be a big factor this year. I thought it’d be the Jets stepping up in the AFC East, but instead, it’s looking like Miami putting speed to the scheme of one of the only coaches with a working brain can deliver devastating, historic results like this.

Cowboys at Cardinals: Choke for Caleb Over?

You know, Mike McCarthy was fired in Green Bay after losing as a 13.5-point favorite against Arizona in 2018. I’m not saying it will happen again in Dallas, but man, this was a bad loss for a team that looked so good in the first two weeks.

You can’t blame Trevon Diggs going down in practice with a season-ending ACL injury for allowing 222 rushing yards, or Dak Prescott only leading one touchdown drive and having multiple 5-minute field goal drives.

This was just a bad performance by Dallas, and it fuels why people do not trust this team for the Super Bowl. On the other hand, it was a genuinely good performance by the Cardinals, who do not look like the worst team in football as many of us expected. The fact that they had a 4th-quarter lead in every game against the NFC East this year and look fairly competent on both sides of the ball is blowing my mind right now.

Joshua Dobbs actually had a good game here. He was 17-of-21 for 189 yards and a touchdown pass. He only took 2 sacks against that pass rush while rushing for 55 yards himself, including a 44-yard run.

We’ve seen several games this year already where a team failed in the 4-minute offense and had to give the ball back. The Cardinals did not blink when Dallas cut the lead to 21-16. They hit their biggest play of the game on the next snap from scrimmage for 69 yards, and Dobbs threw a touchdown to make it 28-16 with 7:22. The only complaint about that drive is it only took 2:11 off the clock.

That was an interesting part of this game. Arizona never had a drive that lasted longer than 4:17. Dallas had 6 drives that took at least 4:20 off the clock, and they came away with just 16 points on those drives. When you only have 8 possessions in the game and you waste so much of that time to get 16 points, it’s no wonder this ended up being a loss. Prescott’s interception with 3:00 left was the final nail in the coffin.

I have no idea how many games Arizona will win the rest of the year, but this team is nowhere near as bad as most expected. They even have a chance to get better as Dobbs gains experience.

Colts at Ravens: Gay Outshines Tucker

When these teams met in 2021, the Ravens came back from a 25-9 deficit in the fourth quarter to win in overtime in a game where Carson Wentz and Lamar Jackson both passed for over 400 yards. But the Colts would have won in regulation if Rodrigo Blankenship didn’t miss a 47-yard field goal, a miss that arguably cost the Colts (9-8) a playoff berth that year.

Consider this some payback. Colts kicker Matt Gay made NFL history by becoming the first kicker to make four field goals of 50-plus yards in a game (54, 53, 53, 53).

He upstaged the GOAT, Justin Tucker, in his own building. Tucker had a chance to add to his legacy with a 61-yard field goal to win the game at the buzzer, but while his kick was straight as usual, he was a little short this time.

The game went to overtime, but there were a lot of mistakes by both teams before and after that point. The Ravens were missing almost half their starters and they wasted a solid Lamar Jackson performance as he passed for 202 yards, and rushed for 101 yards and two scores.

The Colts were without Anthony Richardson (concussion), but Gardner Minshew was game with a ton of scrambling around. However, his Orlovsky moment in a 17-16 game seemed like it would doom the Colts when Minshew stepped on the back boundary line for a safety to give the Ravens a 19-16 lead with 2:03 left.

Those 3 seconds helped buy the Colts a key clock stoppage. While the Ravens put away Cincinnati in the 4-minute offense last week, they did not do it this time, going 3-and-out and giving Minshew a shot at redemption. Gay’s 53-yard field goal tied it at 19 with 57 seconds left.

Jackson gave Tucker a shot from 61, but there was a 10-yard sack during the drive that put the Ravens in a bind and made the attempt that long.

In overtime, first downs were hard to come by for both offenses. On a 4th-and-3 at the Indy 47, Jackson was unable to connect with Zay Flowers, turning the ball over at midfield with 3:21 left. Baltimore’s run defense showed some cracks, and Zack Moss got the call on the next 4 plays as Shane Steichen was content with setting up Gay for another long kick.

But from 53 yards out once again, Gay was good and delivered a surprising 22-19 win for the Colts, who technically jump ahead of Baltimore in the AFC standings for now with this win at 2-1.

Not sure anyone in Baltimore is going to panic after a loss like this with so many starters out, but the Colts should feel optimistic after this one. This is not the kind of game they win last year with Jeff Saturday.

Texans at Jaguars: The AFC South Circus Continues

The Titans tend to own the Texans. The Texans tend to own the Jaguars. The Jaguars own the Colts outside of Indy. This is the kind of circus that goes on in the AFC South, arguably the most unclear division race at this point.

I was nervous about Jacksonville going into the season, but I thought holding the Chiefs to 17 last week was at least a sign the defense would be okay and would lead an effort to get back on track by beating Houston.

Whoops. The Texans were up 17-0 in the first half, then even when the Jaguars looked to get back into it, they let a fullback return a pop-up kickoff 85 yards for a touchdown. Between that and the fumble return touchdown in Indy in Week 1, the Jaguars have allowed two of the weirdest, ugliest, least aware touchdowns of the 2023 season.

But whether this was just another embarrassing loss to Houston or something worse, the Jaguars should be worried. Like last week, Trevor Lawrence again struggled with his new connection to Calvin Ridley. The defense let C.J. Stroud complete 20-of-30 passes for 280 yards and 2 touchdowns while failing to sack him despite the Texans not having four offensive line starters again.

Maybe Stroud is going to be a good one, but the Jaguars have some questions to answer as they sit in last place of the division they were expected to win with relative ease.

Chargers at Vikings: Staying on Brand

It took some time to get there, but Chargers-Vikings was the back-and-forth shootout with multiple lead changes (and head-scratching decisions) that you would have expected from these teams.

You knew both teams would do their best to try losing the game, and they did not disappoint there. In the end, Minnesota’s close-game regression was too strong for Chargering.

But before we get there, let’s first go over how new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore is not afraid to try different things with the Chargers. In Week 1, he had one of the most run-heavy attacks in the Justin Herbert era. They obviously dialed that back in Week 2 without Austin Ekeler, and because playing the Titans means more passing and less running.

But in this game, you thought the Chargers would get back to running and using Josh Kelley more like they did in Week 1 against Miami and attack a Minnesota team that was destroyed by D’Andre Swift and the Eagles.

It didn’t happen at all. Kelley had 11 carries for 12 yards and the Chargers had 15 runs for 30 yards. Instead, Herbert had the first 400-yard passing game of his career (405), and he was 40-of-47 passing, the highest completion percentage (85.1%) in a 40-completion game in NFL history. Ben Roethlisberger’s 2014 game against the Colts (40-for-49) is the only other 40-completion game where the quarterback had under 50 attempts.

These numbers don’t even include a trick play where Keenan Allen threw a 49-yard touchdown to Mike Williams. Allen had himself a day, catching 18-of-20 targets for 215 yards.

But after Allen’s touchdown pass gave the Chargers a 21-10 lead in the third quarter, the game got into that expected phase of each team trying to blow it.

The Chargers were up first. They stopped the Vikings but decided to decline a holding penalty that would have set up 3rd-and-16 out of field goal range. Why would Brandon Staley decline that? The Vikings went for 4th-and-6 at the LA 36, and sure enough Kirk Cousins found K.J. Osborn for a 36-yard touchdown.

Throw in an obligatory Mike Williams injury, a near strip-sack of Herbert, and there were the Vikings driving to regain the lead at 24-21 with 11:20 left after Justin Jefferson had his first touchdown of the season.

We’ve seen this movie before. Herbert is still quite good at getting the lead, and he did so after finding Allen on a 3rd-and-17 for 20 yards. But on the very next play, Herbert caught a break when his pass went through a defender’s hands to Josh Palmer for a 30-yard touchdown that proved to be the game winner with 8:05 left.

That is not a typo. In a game between the Vikings and Chargers, there were no points scored in the final 8:05. This is the kind of game Minnesota wins last year but not in 2023. The Vikings had a 1st-and-goal at the 3 and blew it. Cousins tried to throw to Jefferson on 4th-and-goal, but he was short of the end zone and it was an illegal shift anyway. There was a lot of contact too, so it could have been off-setting penalties and replay the down, but no flag on the Chargers.

The Vikings forced a stop that brought up 4th-and-1 at the LA 24 with 1:51 left. One yard wins the game but going for it there in a 4-point game would be quite ballsy when a touchdown can beat you. This is shades of the Patriots on 4th-and-2 against the Colts in 2009. At least this was a yard closer, but the Chargers were stuffed and turned it over on downs.

What ensued is why I tend to trust my defense at stopping Cousins with the game on the line and a long field. I don’t know if the Chargers took the short field for granted, or they were terrified of leaving time for Herbert, but they really acted like they had all the time in the world.

It took the Chargers 52 seconds to move the ball 4 yards. Then watching Jefferson crumble to the ground on a non-contact play was devastating. Fortunately, it looks to only be cramps, but boy did they come at the worst time for the offense. With 149 yards, Jefferson is the only player in NFL history to start a season with 3 straight games of 140-plus receiving yards.

After Cousins converted a fourth down to T.J. Hockenson with over 30 seconds left, he took forever to call the next play. A veteran should have that ready to go fast to maximize the opportunities left. Instead, the Vikings ran their next play with 12 seconds left, and it proved to be their final play.

Cousins’ pass for Hockenson was tipped and deflected to a Charger for a game-ending interception in the end zone. The Chargers finally made some legitimate stops even if it did come with the help of atrocious game management by the Vikings and an untimely cramp for the best receiver around.

But I guess not even Chargering can overcome regression from a historic season of close wins like the Vikings had last year.

Bears at Chiefs: Taylor Swift Could Lead a Team Better Than Matt Eberflus

I’m glad sanity won out, because the Bears should have been destroyed in this game, and that’s exactly what happened. It completes one of the worst weeks in Chicago franchise history after Justin Fields slammed the coaching for his robotic play, he tried to walk it back, the defensive coordinator resigned under suspicious circumstances, and the team facility was robbed of $100,000 in equipment.

Why would the team that lost 12 in a row (now 13) put up a good fight against the Chiefs at home with Travis Kelce trying to ball out with the most popular woman in the world cheering him on from the press box next to his mom?

And yet, it somehow was still shockingly awful for Chicago, which trailed 41-0 going into the fourth quarter and were fortunate that Patrick Mahomes and starters were pulled early. Andy Reid never had a 34-0 halftime lead before this game.

The Chiefs finally protected the ball in a game this year, and I’m not even considering Blaine Gabbert coming in and throwing 2 picks to steal a paycheck as proof of that. Mahomes was 24-of-33 for 272 yards and 3 touchdowns. He had his ankle rolled into before halftime but thankfully seemed to avoid anything serious.

The only thing the Chiefs need to work on is getting right tackle Jawaan Taylor lined up right. He is a target now for the refs.

But Fields finished this game with 99 passing yards, 47 rushing yards, and he took 3 sacks with a pick and a touchdown pass in garbage time of the 41-10 loss. I thought he would do a lot more rushing if he was going to play by his “instincts” this week.

This is the kind of loss that gets someone fired, but the defensive coordinator already checked out before it. The Bears somehow have gotten worse from last year, and they are an underdog at home next week to a Denver team that just lost by 50 points.

I think I already have my answer on how much can a team improve that was the worst in the league at passing and allowing points. The Bears may be in the Caleb Williams sweepstakes after all.

Bills at Commanders: What the Howell Was That?

Every time they showed a highlight from this game it was Stefon Diggs left wide open or Sam Howell taking a sack or throwing a pick. No wonder Buffalo won 37-3. Diggs had 111 yards, Josh Allen only had one inconsequential turnover on a 3rd-and-20 (glorified punt), and the defense continues to be fantastic for Buffalo.

Only a pitiful field goal from 51 yards away with 46 seconds left avoided the shut out for Washington and Eric Bieniemy’s offense. Howell’s game was absurd with 4 interceptions and 9 sacks. That’s only the 5th such game on record with those totals:

  • Dan Darragh, 1969 Bills vs. Chiefs: 4 INT, 9 sacks (L 29-7)
  • Ron Jaworski, 1983 Eagles vs. Cardinals: 4 INT, 11 sacks (L31-7)
  • Paul McDonald, 1984 Browns vs. Chiefs: 4 INT, 11 sacks (L 10-6)
  • Warren Moon, 1985 Oilers vs. Cowboys: 4 INT, 12 sacks (L 17-10)
  • Sam Howell, 2023 Commanders vs. Bills: 4 INT, 9 sacks (L 37-3)

Just one of those days. But my main takeaway is that Buffalo is still one of the most balanced, best teams in the league. They’ll get to prove their AFC East superiority when they host the Dolphins next week after that 70-point stunner.

Saints at Packers: Another Epic Green Bay Comeback Not Starring Favre or Rodgers

Brett Favre never led a 17-point comeback win in his NFL career.

Aaron Rodgers started out 0-26 when trailing by multiple scores in the second half of a game before getting his first win on a Hail Mary in Detroit in 2015.

In Jordan Love’s first home start, he led a 17-point comeback in the fourth quarter against an elite defense in a game where he was missing his best running back (Aaron Jones), wide receiver (Christian Watson), and offensive lineman (David Bakhtiari).

It was just as impressive as it was avoidable for New Orleans, which punted on four straight drives after Derek Carr left with a shoulder injury in the third quarter. But it’s not like Carr was lighting up the Packers. The Saints got a 76-yard punt return touchdown from Rashid Shaheed to help build a 17-0 lead. They also got an interception from Love, his first of the season.

But the Packers kept coming with opportunities in the fourth quarter. Even after they blew a 4th-and-2 at the New Orleans 13 to start the final quarter, they got the ball right back after Jameis Winston was unable to move the offense. The Packers kicked a short field goal on the next drive, then drove 80 yards for a touchdown and 2-point conversion on the next one to make it 17-11 with 6:58 left.

The Saints went 3-and-out, then Love drove 80 yards again with big plays (24-yard scramble and 30-yard pass to backup receiver) for another touchdown, an 8-yard pass to Romeo Doubs with 2:56 left. Green Bay led 18-17.

Chris Olave seemed like he was going to personally put an end to this with a couple of catches for 38 yards. But once the Saints got to the Green Bay 32 at the 2-minute warning, they went very conservative, setting up a long field goal for an unproven kicker (Blake Grupe).

I have to believe this is a game the Saints win or at least take a late lead if they still had Wil Lutz at kicker. But Grupe was wide right on a 46-yard field goal with 1:05 left, and that was the ball game.

The Saints match the 2013-14 Seahawks with an 11th-straight game of not allowing more than 20 points, the longest streak to start in the salary cap era (1994). It is the longest streak in the NFL since the 1993-94 Browns (13 games). But it was still enough to lose this one. After Love failed to get a first down in a game-winning drive situation in Atlanta last week, he led scoring drives of 46, 80, and 80 yards in this quarter.

But again, I have to say either the presence of Carr at the end of the game or a better kicker like Lutz would have been enough for the Saints to win this game. Tough loss for the Saints when they had a shot at 3-0 on a day Atlanta lost.

But an exciting win for Green Bay. We have yet to see this offense in its full form this year, so better days should be on the way too.

Steelers at Raiders: It’s Gruesome That Someone So Handsome Should Throw That Pick

While no one would accuse the Steelers of looking great on offense Sunday night, it was great compared to Weeks 1-2. Kenny Pickett finally had a game with 2 touchdown passes. It only took him 15 starts to do it, but he ended that streak and even hit a deep ball to Calvin Austin for 72 yards that looked good. The Steelers finished with 333 yards, so the 400-yard streak is still intact for Matt Canada, but 23 points and no turnovers will help the Steelers win a lot of games this year as long as the defense plays like this.

T.J. Watt notched another 2 sacks and the secondary picked off Jimmy Garoppolo 3 times, including a few poor decisions and throws. The Raiders scored first before the Steelers ripped off the next 23 points, which was also surprising with the way Davante Adams (172 yards, 2 TDs) and Jakobi Meyers (85 yards) were open for most of the night.

The game might have even ended 23-7 if the refs didn’t interfere with an absurd roughing the passer call on Minkah Fitzpatrick to negate a sack that would have made it 3rd-and-16 halfway through the fourth quarter. The Raiders turned that into a touchdown, then got a 1-yard 2-point conversion after another penalty.

But down 23-15, the Raiders got into some trouble with a false start bringing up a 4th-and-6 at the Pittsburgh 30 with 3:15 left. Josh McDaniels wanted to kick the field goal and I have to agree there. Teams down 8 put so much emphasis on just the tie instead of the win, and I did not trust the offense to get a touchdown from there. Kick the field goal and use your 4 clock stoppages to get the ball back and drive for a winning touchdown.

They did that, but the Steelers were called for a leverage penalty, which is another random call that felt made up. But after facing a 4th-and-4 at the Pittsburgh 8 with 2:25 left, McDaniels opted for the 26-yard field goal. I don’t agree with that one, because he only needed 4 yards, he was much closer to a touchdown, and he was nearly a full minute shorter on time now.

The margin for error was so slim, because one first down by Pittsburgh and the Raiders would be practically screwed. Granted, you don’t trust the Pittsburgh offense to get a first down in that situation, but the chances aren’t bad when you blitz Pickett from the right and leave a wide-open receiver to his left on a 3rd-and-2 for a big 6 yards.

By the time the Raiders got the ball back, they needed to go 85 yards in 12 seconds. Garoppolo left no doubt as Levi Wallace came away with his 2nd pick of the night to end this one at 23-18.

The Steelers, who would be the No. 2 seed if the playoffs started today, get a game in Houston next, so there is a chance for a 3-1 start despite how ugly it’s been at times. The Raiders are basically in a season-ender game next with the Chargers with both teams at 1-2.

Last year, the Raiders seemed to forget there were two halves to games. This year, they seem to be playing with half an offense as the running game just isn’t there with Jacobs, and sometimes Garoppolo loses his mind and throws it to the other team no matter how well or poorly the protection held up.

Falcons at Lions: Meh Bowl

This 20-6 finish between NFC teams hoping to make the postseason was really disappointing. In the days of Matt Ryan and Matthew Stafford, you counted on this matchup to be very close in the fourth quarter, and both teams could put up 20 points at least.

But the Falcons failed their first road test of the year by never finding the end zone. Bijan Robinson only rushed for 33 yards as the run game was shut down (20 carries for 44 yards). Desmond Ridder took 7 sacks as the Falcons had 183 total yards in the game.

The Lions were 4-for-14 on third down just like the Falcons, but at least rookie back Jahmyr Gibbs had 80 yards on the ground in his first big game replacing the injured David Montgomery.

But the fun battle between the top rookie backs did not materialize, and now you have to wonder if Miami rookie back Devon Achane will steal their thunder after his incredible game against Denver.

Panthers at Seahawks: Sensing a Pattern

If any team is sticking hard to its 2022 identity in 2023, it would be Seattle. This team is going to succeed as Geno Smith goes in his attempt to make up for a weak defense. Matthew Stafford, Jared Goff, and now Andy Dalton have all passed for over 300 yards and put up at least 27 points against the Seattle defense this year.

However, Dalton had 58 attempts in this one as Carolina’s running game was shut down and the Panthers had to play catch-up mode offense, never taking over possession with a lead smaller than 9 in the 4th quarter. Still, it is the 53rd loss in a row for the team when trailing in the 4th quarter.

The Seahawks kept settling for field goals (4 in the first half) before finally finding the end zone multiple times in the second half behind a good day for Kenneth Walker and Smith.

Frank Reich did get better play out of his offense with Dalton’s experience over rookie Bryce Young, but the Panthers are still 0-3 and might be looking at a 1-5 start at best in a few weeks.

Seattle’s identity is still probably good enough to stay within a game of .500 at best, but on Sunday, the Seahawks were better than Carolina and the Panthers did not help themselves with 13 penalties (many coming pre-snap).

Patriots at Jets: Same Old Story

For the 15th time in a row, the Patriots beat the Jets. It is the No. 1 thing you can still count on the Patriots to do right, and this time it was aided by the Aaron Rodgers injury. While Zach Wilson did not throw any interceptions in this one, he played almost too safe to avoid that, since we know a pick parade is one of the quickest ways to lose his starting job.

Play it safe long enough, lose a close game, and that will buy some time. But frankly, the Jets are not even looking like a team that may have been great anyway if Rodgers did not get injured. The running game is simply not there. The Jets had 22 runs for 38 yards in this game. The defense is also not overwhelmingly great. The Patriots missed a pair of field goals and did not have any turnovers.

Wilson was able to put together one late touchdown drive to make it interesting at 13-10, but then he was sacked in the end zone for a safety by Matt Judon to make it 15-10. On his next drive, he checked down on 4th-and-10 for a whopping 2-yard gain. But the Patriots failed to run out the clock again, so there was a Hail Mary attempt, and there was a shot at the game-winning score at the buzzer after a ball was deflected near a New York receiver before it hit the ground to end the game.

With the Chiefs up next, the Jets have 1-3 with a fluke win over Buffalo written all over them. But regardless of this outcome, I still think picking the Patriots to finish last in the AFC East was a good bet this year. How would I know Rodgers would tear his Achilles after 4 plays? But that injury and the way the Patriots beat the Jets so consistently should be Belichick’s saving grace from sinking to the bottom of the division he used to rule.

Titans at Browns: This Incredible Defense

Even on a day where Deshaun Watson played his best game yet for the Browns, he still managed to sneak in this homage to Aaron Brooks and the backwards pass:

But the headline we need to talk about is this Cleveland defense under new coordinator Jim Schwartz. This unit led by Myles Garrett is up there with the most impressive in the league through Week 3.

The Browns held the Titans to 15 carries for 26 yards on the ground. Ryan Tannehill barley hit 100 yards passing and took 5 sacks, including a horrible one before halftime without a timeout, killing the team’s chance for a field goal.

The Titans never turned the ball over but were still held to 3 points on 10 drives. The Titans had 6 first downs after the Browns allowed just 6 first downs to the Bengals and 9 to the Steelers. The 21 first downs allowed by the Browns through 3 games is tied with the 1999 Buccaneers for the second fewest since 1966. The only defense to do better was the 1970 Lions (19).

You can definitely question the offenses the Browns have played so far, but if this defense can be this nasty against an injured Baltimore team next week, first place in the AFC North going into the early bye (Week 5) at 3-1 is possible for this team.

It’s just too bad they won’t have Nick Chubb the rest of the year because you could see the impact of that loss as the running game only had 31 carries for 78 yards. Jerome Ford had 10 carries for 18 yards despite another touchdown. Some of that is the way Tennessee defends, but some of the passing success Watson finally had is also a result of the unique Titans.

But if this defense keeps things up, then the Browns might fill the role we thought the Jets with Aaron Rodgers would have this year in the AFC. They’d just be doing it with a quarterback who has an even lower approval rating from fans in general.

Next week: If you can look away from the last 5 games in Week 4 looking like trash on paper, the early afternoon should be great with an early Game of the Year candidate in Dolphins-Bills. No better time for that one with Miami coming off a historic performance.