Tag: Sam Darnold

2024 NFL Stat Oddity: Week 16

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

The NFL delivered such a frontloaded Week 16 schedule that six of the likely AFC playoff teams already played on Thursday and Saturday. All that Sunday had left was Buffalo slumming it with the Patriots.

But the games were competitive, and 12 of the 15 games so far this week had a comeback opportunity with six game-winning drives already in the books. We saw a concussion knock Jalen Hurts out of the big game in Washington, an iconic performance for Jayden Daniels in the comeback win, and the Cowboys even decided to play hard Sunday night to upset the Buccaneers and bring some chaos to the NFC South.

A week ago, people were flocking towards an Eagles-Bills Super Bowl. Now, that doesn’t look so hot with the reality that neither is likely to be a No. 1 seed, and teams like the Chiefs, Lions, Vikings, Packers, and Ravens are still very much relevant in this race.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Eagles at Commanders: Kenny Pickett? (Read It in the “Scut Farkas?” Narration Voice)

Sunday’s best game on paper turned out to be the best game for reasons no one expected. Jalen Hurts was ruled out early after a concussion on a long run where he just looked a hair off after getting up. That was enough to take him out and replace him with Kenny Pickett of all people.

Oh, it was quite the Pickett experience too as he took 3 sacks with his oblivious nature to the pass rush, he threw a pick, he locked onto basically 2 receivers (A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith had 23 of the team’s 28 pass targets), the Eagles were 3-for-16 on third down, and he still made a couple of clutch throws that probably should have won the game.

But it didn’t work out this time as Philadelphia’s winning streak was snapped at 10 games. The Eagles got a 68-yard touchdown run out of Saquon Barkley, but his other 28 carries only gained 82 yards as the Commanders kept stuffing runs to stay in the game after the offense had 5 turnovers on a sloppy day where they even started the game with a turnover on downs after Brian Robinson Jr. was stuffed on a 4th-and-1 run.

The ability to withstand 5 giveaways and still come back to beat a top defense like the Eagles 36-33 is really impressive for Jayden Daniels, the rookie sensation who absolutely locked up the Offensive Rookie of the Year award here. Even with his skill players fumbling 3 times and giving him 32 rushing yards, Daniels was a dual-threat machine in this game with 258 passing yards and 81 rushing yards. The only other quarterback in NFL history to even have one game with 5 touchdown passes, 220 passing yards, and 70 rushing yards was Cam Newton in 2015 against the Giants, a game that locked up his MVP award that year.

Would things have turned out differently if Hurts wasn’t concussed? Perhaps. But it’s not like the Eagles didn’t score 33 points, didn’t lead 14-0/21-7/27-14, or didn’t rack up takeaways. They just couldn’t finish the job.

Barkley had a big drop on his only pass target in the fourth quarter. Later, Daniels made his biggest mistake with an interception with 2:53 left in a 30-28 game. But instead of icing the game, the Eagles couldn’t convert a 3rd-and-5 when Pickett’s pass was dropped by a wide-open Smith, a shockingly bad drop that’s even worse than the one Barkley had in Week 2 against Atlanta, another improbable loss for the Eagles this year and why their shot at the No. 1 seed is all but toast.

That gave Daniels another shot in a 33-28 game with 1:52 left, and he delivered another clutch drive for a 9-yard touchdown to Jamison Crowder with 6 seconds left to go up 36-33 after a 2-point conversion run.

The Commanders are still going to likely fall short of winning the NFC East, but can you imagine if the wild card match is No. 7 Washington at No. 2 Philadelphia? That just got a lot more likely and interesting after this game.

Texans at Chiefs: Stroud-Mahomes I Not Quite as Planned

When the NFL schedule came out in May, I was hyping up Texans-Chiefs as a huge game for the MVP race and No. 1 seed. I thought C.J. Stroud would be the next challenger to Patrick Mahomes in the AFC, and this game would be his chance on a national stage to show how far he and this team has come against the defending champs.

Well, the season hasn’t quite turned out that way, but both teams still came in as division winners and the Chiefs are chasing the No. 1 seed. I also think Stroud held his own and did a decent job on the road after losing Tank Dell to a gruesome knee injury. He’s already lost Stefon Diggs, so it’s basically Nico Collins and some guys, and one of those guys (tight end Dalton Schultz) had a pretty egregious drop in the second half.

But Stroud also threw two picks, and you can’t do that in Kansas City. The Chiefs are getting that turnover regression in full force now with 8 takeaways in the last two games after 10 takeaways through 13 games. The offense also hasn’t turned it over in 5 straight games, the longest streak in the Mahomes era. So, everything I was saying about turnovers for this team earlier this season is coming true now with the defense starting to get them and the offense avoiding them well.

But it was still another one-score win despite the Chiefs only spending about 5-6 minutes trailing in a game they mostly controlled. Hollywood Brown made his season debut and looked solid given he’s never played a real game before with this offense. Definitely should be a plus going forward. Even Xaiver Worthy played well and scored another touchdown. Still not getting much from the running game, but I like that the Chiefs made a real effort to get the ball out fast against an elite pass rush.

Mahomes played very well, and go figure, he showed on the opening drive that the ankle was no big deal with two huge scrambles, including a 15-yard touchdown run. The Chiefs finished with 27 points on 9 drives, and that includes Kareem Hunt sliding down at the end when he could have scored if he wanted to.

But the Chiefs are more than content with their 27-19 type of victory as they are 14-1 and march towards another No. 1 seed. They get two cracks at winning one game to clinch it.

Steelers at Ravens: Pittsburgh Might Lose Out Now

Why does this game feel so long ago when Saturday was just one day before Sunday? But I wanted to quickly touch on three things with this one.

First, Russell Wilson undoubtedly screwed things up here in a game that was more high scoring than expected and there for the taking. He got greedy on the scramble that turned into a fumble when he should have been satisfied with a 1st-and-goal. Then the pick-six after Minkah Fitzpatrick delivered an incredible pick was just a back breaker and game ender to make it 31-17 in the fourth quarter. Can’t afford those kind of mistakes on the road against a playoff opponent.

As for Mike Tomlin, I think he let the Philadelphia punt beat him twice. Tomlin was rightfully criticized for punting last week in Philadelphia before the Eagles went on to run out the final 10-plus minutes on the clock. But instead of learning the right lesson that the punt was bad because of the 27-13 score and the struggles to get Philly off the field, Tomin ignored the game situation Saturday and made another bad call when he went for a 4th-and-6 at the Baltimore 45 with a whole quarter left. Wilson threw deep to Calvin Austin for an incompletion.

Maybe it’s a moot point since two plays later, Lamar Jackson wasted Derrick Henry’s 44-yard run by throwing a pick, but I still would like to see Tomlin learn when to punt and when to go for it with better skill and reasoning instead of what feels like randomness. He got aggressive in a spot that really didn’t call for it. I also think he was frustrated the Ravens recovered all 3 of those early fumbles that could have really turned this game around. It just wasn’t Pittsburgh’s day as fumble recoveries on those plays is key to how they’ve been beating Baltimore so routinely.

But I wouldn’t say it was exactly Lamar Jackson’s day either. Sure, he threw 3 touchdowns and got his cleanest win yet against the Steelers. But he only hit one 20-yard completion in the game against a secondary that was already missing a corner (Donte Jackson) and lost another (Joey Porter Jr.) to injury. T.J. Watt wasn’t 100% after a fourth-quarter injury last week and wasn’t a factor here. The Ravens recovered Jackson’s early strip-sack fumble. He only had 25 rushing yards on 6 carries, so they kept him contained again. Then he threw a horrible pick in the red zone when the Ravens had their shot to go up two scores.

But Henry rushed for 162 yards and the Steelers left some key receivers open throughout the game. I don’t think they’d have any fear of a rematch even if it was played in Baltimore in the playoffs. George Pickens, Jackson, and Porter Jr. should be back for that one and a healthier Watt (hopefully).

We might end up seeing that too, because it wouldn’t be surprising if the Steelers lost out here with the Chiefs and Bengals up next. I guess it depends on how badly both teams need that Week 18 game.

But the Ravens needed this one to avoid losing the AFC North, and they came through. We’ll see what they do in Houston next while the Steelers have to deal with the Chiefs.

Patriots at Bills: Running Backs Matter?

As new AFC East rivals, you’re going to hear a lot of comparisons between Drake Maye and Josh Allen in the next few years, or at least for as long enough as Maye gives us a reason to.

Here’s one such comparison: Maye’s 2024 rookie season is better than Josh Allen’s 2018 rookie season. If the Patriots invest wisely this offseason, I’d expect Maye’s second season to also be better than Allen’s second season. Anything beyond that might be a stretch.

But that’s the future. As for Sunday, it’s no stretch at all to say Maye outplayed Allen in their first matchup but didn’t get the win because of the difference in how their running backs played. It was 14 degrees at kickoff, but Maye did well throwing the ball in Buffalo, making some excellent plays down the field and in tight windows on shorter throws.

The Patriots led 14-0 early, but they couldn’t build on that lead. Buffalo also quickly cut into half of it with a 46-yard touchdown run by James Cook, his fourth burst from over 40 yards for a score this year. He later added another touchdown catch on another drive where he broke a 25-yard run.

It covered up a poor game from Allen, who threw for 154 yards on 16-of-29 passing. He only had one touchdown pass and threw an ugly looking interception in the end zone that the Patriots were caught trying to return instead of taking the touchback. Allen only rushed for 30 yards too, so it just wasn’t a very effective game for him at all. His 28.7 QBR was the third lowest this week while Maye’s was 67.3.

But this game turned in the third quarter when Rhamondre Stevenson lost a fumble, setting up the Bills for a 50-yard go-ahead field goal on a drive that was just 10 yards long. The Bills led 17-14 and never trailed again from that point. I can’t help but point out all the big fumbles the skill players for the Patriots have had since 2020 after Tom Brady left the team. This didn’t use to happen to them, but it has now and Stevenson is a repeat offender with some huge fumbles in his career.

This game is another glaring example, but the stat sheet is going to show that Maye fumbled on a lateral pass to Stevenson in the fourth quarter that was returned for an easy Buffalo touchdown to make it 24-14.

https://twitter.com/NFL/status/1870980329097539969

Was the pass too hard? Hell no. That’s a pretty soft lob that hit Stevenson right in the hands well before any contact. The problem was he shouldn’t have thrown it as the defender was bearing down and it was going to be a huge loss even if caught. Throwing it backwards to make it a live ball instead of forward to be a swing pass that might go incomplete just made it worse.

But that play really ruined the game for New England, and I swear Stevenson is a double agent at times for this team. Don’t forget the time he choked against the Bengals in 2022 on 1st-and-goal from inside the 5.

Eventually, the Patriots scored a touchdown with 1:13 left, but they wasted almost a full minute after having 1st-and-goal at the 1 with 2:14 left. Antonio Gibson, the other back, was stuffed for a 3-yard loss, leading to an extended series of plays, including a bad dropped fumble by Maye that he recovered, that took a minute off the clock and left the Patriots with little hope of getting the ball back despite keeping all three timeouts.

Maybe Drake Maye should embrace his “the new Josh Allen” and should have did the Tush Push on that 1st-and-goal play at 2:14. Get this thing in before the 2-minute warning and the Patriots could have had 4 clock stoppages in a 24-21 game on a day where Allen wasn’t good.

But this is why the Patriots are 3-12.

Buccaneers at Cowboys: Where Was This Dallas Team Earlier?

The Cowboys (7-8) may have been eliminated from the playoffs Sunday, but they’re possibly a botched punt against Cincinnati away from a 5-game winning streak after taking down the Buccaneers in a wild 26-24 game Sunday night.

Where was this team earlier in the season when it was getting destroyed by 20-point deficits at home every week? Cooper Rush had a successful night against the Tampa Bay defense, and the Buccaneers had some really poor plays with drops and getting outmuscled for the ball by Dallas’ defense who just looked like they wanted it more all night. The interception in the fourth quarter in the end zone was a great example of that.

But what about the ending? It looked like Tampa Bay was going to pull off an improbable 9-point comeback in the last 5:00 by scoring twice. They got the ball back with 1:40 and only needed a field goal. But one of the craziest endings you’ll ever see took place. On the first snap, Baker Mayfield kept fighting to avoid a sack, flipped the ball out to receiving back Rachaad White, who carried it like a loaf of bread before securing it and gaining some YAC.

https://twitter.com/brgridiron/status/1871052626302804198

But even though he got both hands on the ball again, the Cowboys still ripped the ball away from him for a game-deciding fumble. Madness.

Tampa Bay (8-7) is going to need Atlanta to lose a game if it wants to win the NFC South again. This was a bad performance in Dallas for them.

Vikings at Seahawks: Another Close Win for Kevin O’Connell and Sam Darnold

Remember when the Vikings were 5-0 and people started writing them off after a little 2-game losing streak? Well, they’re 8-0 since their last loss, and the latest test they passed was another gut-check win on the road in Seattle against a team playing for a division title chase.

I continue to be impressed with Sam Darnold, who shook off another 3-sack game by still throwing 3 touchdowns, including the game winner from 39 yards out to Justin Jefferson with 3:51 left. Darnold has led 5 game-winning drives this season, doubling his career total he had coming into 2024.

Geno Smith played well on that knee injury for most of the game, but when push came to shove, he took a sack and a fantastic tackle on a 3rd-and-16 checkdown to the running back led to a 60-yard field goal, which was missed with 1:55 left. After Smith got the ball back with 55 seconds left and still in need of a field goal for overtime, he immediately threw a bad pick to end the game.

I’m heavily rooting for the Vikings to beat Green Bay next week so that we can get the last game of the regular season to be Vikings-Lions in Detroit for the No. 1 seed. I’m also not ruling out 2024 being Sam Darnold’s Eli/Flacco/Foles moment as we feel overdue for that kind of postseason.

Lions at Bears: On the Bright Side, No Clock Mismanagement This Time…

The Bears almost beat the Lions on Thanksgiving, but there was no such close finish this time as the score stayed 34-17 the entire final quarter. It didn’t help that the Bears had another slow start, falling behind 20-0, but you have to blame Rome Odunze for a couple of early fumble plays for that this time.

But the Lions were excellent on offense with a big game from Jared Goff and Jahmyr Gibbs in a starring role without David Montgomery (MCL). I believe the theory that offensive coordinator Ben Johnson was “showing off” to impress the Bears’ front office if he is to be their next head coach. Calling that intentional “stumble” play with Goff throwing a touchdown was an excellent example of him pulling out all the tricks even when the Lions probably didn’t need them to beat Chicago again.

But Johnson should want to coach a team like Chicago. First, you stay out of the AFC where most of the elite quarterbacks are, and you have a chance to build up the Bears with Caleb Williams, who again had a game where I think it showed his potential more than it did problems. He threw for 334 yards, no picks again, and he only took 2 sacks this week. He was also his team’s leading rusher again with 34 yards.

Johnson is a hot commodity in the coaching ranks, so we’ll see where he lands next month. But this very well may have been part of his interview with the Bears.

Rams at Jets: Almost a Historic Game

The Rams just can’t play a “normal” game this month. They go from a 44-42 wire-to-wire win over the Bills to a 12-6 comeback win in rainy San Francisco, and now it’s a 19-9 win in New York that looks low scoring as hell, but this game actually came close to being historic.

Each team only had the ball three times in the first half as long drives ruled the day. In the third quarter, the Jets had a drive that lasted nearly 10 minutes and ended with a turnover on downs, a killer and probably a bad decision to go for a 4th-and-4 instead of a short field goal to go up 12-6.

But the Rams’ next drive bled into the fourth quarter, a game-tying field goal drive, so we had a game with just 8 total possessions with 12:44 to play. This could have set the record for the fastest 60-minute NFL game ever played and the one with the fewest possessions between two teams (think 11 would do the trick, maybe 12), but we didn’t get there in the end.

Aaron Rodgers went from some strong drive engineering as his protection held up to giving up the ball on a strip-sack as he got a little too comfortable in holding onto it. That put the Rams on a short field for a go-ahead touchdown drive as Matthew Stafford found a healthy Tyler Higbee for 11 yards. Rodgers couldn’t answer on the ensuing 4th-and-4, and the Rams added a field goal to make it 19-9.

The Jets’ last real hope was a 49-yard field goal with 2:02 left, but as has been the case all season, the kicking team blew it. Even when they tried to get one last possession back, they muffed the punt, so the special teams have been just abysmal for the 2024 Jets.

And that’s how you end up blowing your sixth 4th-quarter lead of the year to lead all teams, the most since Josh McDaniels’ Raiders in 2022. Just going to leave this here, and keep in mind it’s 15 starts that Rodgers started and finished this year as that 16 number includes last year’s Buffalo opener when he tore his Achilles.

https://twitter.com/ScottKacsmar/status/1871091880181870770

Cardinals at Panthers: Adios, Arizona

The Cardinals (7-8) have been eliminated from the playoffs after a bad loss in Carolina. They forced overtime after trailing 20-3 early and 30-20 in the fourth quarter. But losing James Conner, who was having a huge game, didn’t help, and in overtime, the Cardianls couldn’t get a drive going. They were even so desperate to move the chains they went for a 4th-and-2 at their own 18, which would have set the Panthers up for a game-winning chipshot if they didn’t get it.

They converted, but the reason that’s a big gamble is you’re still not guaranteed to move the ball any deeper and might end up punting it back anyway. That’s exactly what happened too. Between a delay of game penalty and sack of Kyler Murray on third down, the Cardinals ended up punting from their own 4 after another penalty on top of that. By the time the Panthers got the ball for the second time in overtime, they were at midfield and it only took one Chuba Hubbard run for 28 yards to get in field goal range, then he just ended it with a 21-yard touchdown run to win 36-30.

I don’t know if Bryce Young will ever be good, but I do know that Kyler Murray just missed the playoffs for the fifth time in six years in Arizona, and no one seems to care about that. He’s reaching that Sam Bradford level of “no one cares” for a No. 1 overall pick.

Browns at Bengals: Should Have Been Jameis All Along

As it turns out, Jameis Winston had some type of injury that kept him out of action this week. It’s a shame because I think the Browns could have won this game with him taking on that defense instead of a minimal passing game from Dorian Thompson-Robinson, who took 5 sacks and threw 2 picks while leading the offense to 6 points on 10 drives. That will help the stats for the Cincinnati defense this year.

You could tell early that it wouldn’t be Cleveland’s day when D’Onta Foreman fumbled at the 1-yard line to start the game instead of taking a 7-0 lead. The Bengals were stuck on 17 points for a while, and Joe Burrow even fumbled on a strip-sack from the Cleveland 1 late in the fourth quarter when he was trying to extend his streak of games with 3 touchdown passes.

That’s why I criticize Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts for taking the easy option on the Tush Push instead of being asked to make a throw down there in a confined space. You never know what might happen, but Burrow didn’t even get a pass off here. I’m not saying the sneak isn’t the percentage play, but it’s not something we should be giving excessive credit to for the quarterback.

But Burrow got the ball back and extended his streak anyway after Myles Garrett jumped offside and Burrow went hunting for that streak on a deep throw to Ja’Marr Chase, who came down with the touchdown to make it 24-6.

But it’s all for naught if the Broncos come into Cincinnati next week and win in a de-facto playoff game. That’s going to be the biggest Cincinnati game of the last two seasons.

49ers at Dolphins: From Losing to the Chiefs in the Playoffs to 6-8 Starts

The 49ers were eliminated from the playoffs before this one kicked off in the late window. While I was watching it on RedZone and the 49ers were trailing 19-10, it hit me seeing these teams with 6-8 records after they were both in the playoffs as two of the teams the Chiefs beat that had better than +100 point differentials in 2023. What a difference a year makes for these motion merchants.

I also find myself again scoffing at the injury excuses for the 49ers, who lost again here , when you still see a roster with Brock Purdy, George Kittle, Deebo Samuel, Jauan Jennings, Leonard Floyd, Nick Bosa, Dre Greenlaw, Fred Warner, etc. You really need more than that to not lose by 12 points to the paper tiger Dolphins?

But I digress. Jake Moody being a terrible kicker is one major roster flaw as he missed a 41-yard kick in this game that wasted a third quarter drive. But late in a 22-17 game, it was pressure on Purdy that led to a bad interception and the Dolphins put it away with a long Achane touchdown run they didn’t necessarily need as the game is over if he goes down at any point inside the 40.

But hey, run it up and celebrate something as the Dolphins (7-8) are technically not eliminated yet. It’s the 49ers who are toast.

Titans at Colts: The Almost Epic Comeback of the Year  

It was only two years ago when the Colts blew a 33-0 lead to the Vikings. This time, they were up 38-7 on the Titans with 6:50 to go in the third quarter thanks to some huge touchdown runs by Jonathan Taylor, who secured the ball this week. But the Titans marched on three straight touchdown drives behind Mason Rudolph, and this was suddenly a game again at 38-30 with 2:53 left. The Titans converted a pair of 2-point conversions.

The Colts only threw 10 passes at this point, but Anthony Richardson did at least deliver an accurate throw on his 11th attempt to convert a 3rd-and-8 at the 2-minute warning, or else we might have seen a real attempt at this 31-point comeback, a true rarity in NFL history.

But by the time the Titans got the ball back, there were just 3 seconds left and they were 89 yards away from the end zone while still needing another conversion just to force overtime. Rudolph threw one of the most charitable interceptions you’ll ever see to finally end it. But what a weird finish and game overall.

The Colts (7-8) are still kicking and have a real shot at finishing 9-8 again while still missing the playoffs.

Giants at Falcons: Penix Will Always Remember His First

I hope someone pulled rookie quarterback Michael Penix Jr. aside after his first NFL start and win and reminded him they won’t all be this easy. You can’t count on your defense intercepting two passes for touchdowns from a quarterback like Drew Lock every week. Those returns were even longer than any offensive play the Falcons had as their longest gain was 22 yards.

But it was a 34-7 blowout, Penix didn’t take any sacks, his first interception was 100% on Kyle Pitts, and you can’t really argue with the results. But we’ll see how he does against Jayden Daniels next Sunday night as the Falcons now control their own destiny for the NFC South again.

Jaguars at Raiders: Vegas Wins (Sorta?)

The Raiders ended their 10-game losing streak with a rare comeback win against exactly the caliber of team you’d expect them to finally beat in the Jaguars. It was watching a coach (Antonio Pierce) with a 1-10 record at 4QC attempts against a quarterback (Mac Jones) with a 3-15 record in such games, so something had to give.

In the end, it was the Raiders getting the win, but is it really a win when you give the Giants (2-13) a clear path to the No. 1 pick in the draft now? Not that there’s a huge quarterback prize waiting for them in April if the draft experts are to be trusted, but the Raiders probably aren’t going to control the top of the draft now.

Next week: Five game days from Wednesday-Monday. I think we’re peaking early again on Christmas, and I also think it’s going to be the Chiefs and Ravens winning again like Saturday. Seahawks-Bears is Thursday night, so we’ll see if the Bears can ever end this losing streak before 2025. The Saturday triple-header truly looks like a bad waste of my time on the couch, but I guess Broncos-Bengals is the highlight in the middle. That doesn’t leave much for Sunday, but Packers-Vikings is a good one, and SNF is Falcons-Commanders, which takes on new intrigue of course. Lions will try to destroy the 49ers on MNF to end the week in an NFC Championship Game rematch.

2024 NFL Stat Oddity: Week 10

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

Week 10 in the NFL was almost an overcorrection to last week when favorites dominated the slate from start to finish. In Week 10, favorites were just 3-10 ATS with MNF pending.

But at the end of the day, the teams with the great records were largely winning by the skin of their teeth. It started Thursday night when the Ravens came back from a 21-7 deficit to beat the Bengals in a 35-34 game that came down to a 2-point conversion (and the refs turning a blind eye to Baltimore penalties on it).

Then Sunday brought some even wilder results with the Chiefs (trailed 14-3) and Lions (trailed 23-7) needing field goals to go their way at the end to improve to 17-1 collectively. The Steelers also had a 10-point comeback in the second half to beat the Commanders on the road, and even Kyle Shanahan’s 49ers had a comeback and game-winning field goal in Tampa Bay.

In all, 8-of-13 games had a comeback opportunity and there were seven game-winning drives in Week 10. That made up for the horrible late-afternoon slate that had no drama whatsoever.

It was a good build-up for Week 11, which could be the most crucial week of the 2024 regular season.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Broncos at Chiefs: 8-and-One Hell of a Block to Start 9-0

I guess the Chiefs just hate playing at 1:00 p.m. ET as their last such game was on Christmas last year (a Monday), which was their last loss against the Raiders. But the Chiefs are just showing off now. They have won so many games in a variety of ways in the Patrick Mahomes era, but Sunday’s 16-14 escape over Denver is a new achievement unlocked.

This was not your typical Kansas City letdown game in that there wasn’t a single turnover by either team. No obligatory fumble. No interceptions, unlucky bounce or not, from Patrick Mahomes. It wasn’t a penalty fest either with 9 total for 45 yards.

This was going to be Kansas City’s first loss in 15 games because the Broncos were just a little better on third down against the best third down offense in 2024. The Chiefs delivered some huge plays on that money down, but again, the Broncos were just a little better at converting and forcing pressure on Mahomes to end drives short of the end zone. Bo Nix threw both of his touchdowns on third downs in the second quarter to take a 14-3 lead as he wasn’t phased by Steve Spagnuolo’s defense in his first game against them. That division familiarity with good coaching helps.

But again, there was just enough pressure getting to Mahomes, who took 4 sacks, on money downs that the Chiefs were limited to 16 points. They had a couple of big fourth-down conversions, but they rightfully settled for a 20-yard field goal to take a 16-14 lead with 5:57 left.

In that situation, you don’t expect to never see the ball again, but that’s what happened thanks to Harrison Butker’s kickoff landing short of the kicking zone, which is a penalty that puts the ball at the 40 now. You would think of all weeks, where over 74 million Americans voted for a male rapist over a qualified woman, that Butker would be on point with everything.

Normally, you expect the Chiefs to make the big stops on defense, but it didn’t happen this time. They gave up a trio of third-down conversions, and the last one from Nix to Sutton for 13 yards on 3rd-and-6 should have been the dagger with the Chiefs out of timeouts. You run the clock down and kick the short field goal to win 17-16. Simples.

The Broncos appeared to do it right, and they were going to end the Kansas City winning streak. It was in the bag. But that’s when kicker Wil Lutz was shocked to see Leo Chenal power through the line to block the kick to win the game for Kansas City:

Epic finish, and Chenal was also the player who blocked a San Francisco extra point in the fourth quarter of the Super Bowl to keep it 16-13. So, we can say this is the luckiest win yet for the Chiefs during the 15-game winning streak as they needed to block a kick that has a solid 94% success rate in the NFL.

We can definitely say that. But to say only the Chiefs win like that or that this makes Mahomes the luckiest quarterback ever, well that’s just some bullshit.

First, this was the second blocked 35-yard field goal on Sunday alone. The Saints blocked Atlanta’s 35-yard field goal before halftime in a game Atlanta lost 20-17, but not as many people were following that one. Blocking kicks this short is certainly rare, but again, we just saw one in the same window of games and I mentioned the player who did it (Chenal) also blocked an extra point (35-yard kick) in February’s Super Bowl.

Also, a block is never as lucky as an opposing kicker flat out missing a short kick. Let’s at least make sure we’re crediting Chenal for what he did here.

This is just the fourth time since 1994 where a team blocked a field goal of 35 yards or shorter in the final 2:00 of the fourth quarter in a game that was tied or a team trailed by 1-2 points:

  • 11/7/1999: Down 14-13, Green Bay’s Ryan Longwell’s 28-yard field goal was blocked in a 14-13 loss to the Bears in the closing seconds, the closest example to Lutz vs. Chiefs.
  • 10/19/2003: Tied at 13, Miami’s Olindo Mare’s 35-yard field goal was blocked at the 2-minute warning in what became a 19-13 overtime win for New England.
  • 11/5/2006: Tied at 19, Dallas’ Mike Vanderjagt’s 35-yard field goal was blocked and returned 30 yards by Sean Taylor, and thanks to a facemask penalty on the return, it set up Washington for a 47-yard game-winning field goal as an untimed down in a 22-19 final.

There also were a few games in 1995-2005 where a short kick was blocked in overtime. But if you were in overtime in those years, the game just continued until there was a winner or tie. It wasn’t as do-or-die as the Denver situation Sunday.

So, it’s absolutely a rare finish, but the funniest outcome is that distance (35 yards) instantly reminded me of the Olindo Mare game I’ve tweeted about several times since I joined Twitter in 2011.

https://twitter.com/ScottKacsmar/status/130737154736394240

Not only did the 2003 Patriots block a 35-yard field goal by Olindo Mare with 2:00 left in a tied game, but Mare missed a 35-yard field goal on his own to start overtime. Back then, that’s game over, so that miss is the only reason the Patriots have a record 21-game winning streak to their name. That was Game #3 in the streak, and the misses allowed Tom Brady to throw an 82-yard touchdown pass to Troy Brown, the fourth-longest touchdown pass of his career.

That Mare double whammy for the 2003 Dolphins against New England is the only game in the 21st century NFL where a kicker missed two FGs of 35 yards or shorter in the clutch.

So, spare me the “only the Chiefs and Mahomes” rhetoric with this one. Brady still has the LOAT title locked up. But hopefully this close call will have the Chiefs prepared even better for their huge trip to Buffalo in what could be the Game of the Year in the AFC.

Lions at Texans: Goofed Around with 5 Picks and Won Anyway

In the battle of a top pass offense and pass defense, the defense kind of won, but the Lions somehow still won the game despite Jared Goff throwing 5 interceptions on the road. Goff had been completing over 83% of his passes for the last 6 weeks, but he was just 15-of-30 in this game against a Houston defense that has forced some crazy numbers this year for Josh Allen and Anthony Richardson.

But Goff’s pick parade had the Lions in a 23-7 hole at halftime with C.J. Stroud looking stellar without Nico Collins and Stefon Diggs. Unfortunately, the Texans repeated a lot of their sins when they nearly blew a big lead against Buffalo. Stroud started turning the ball over a couple of times too, and the Texans never scored in the second half.

Oh, there were chances. But Joe Mixon (25 carries for 46 yards) was stuffed all night, and Stroud didn’t finish the job. I think you have to seriously question the Texans trying a 58-yard field goal in a tied game with 1:51 left. It was 4th-and-4 at the time. The Texans already won that Buffalo game with a 59-yard field goal by Ka’imi Fairbairn, so that might have poisoned their thinking process on this one.

But that was not the same situation. That was at the end of regulation. If Fairbairn missed that kick, the game would just go to overtime. If he missed this one, which he did badly, the Lions got the ball at the Detroit 48 and were in business with 1:51 left as they did. There’s also the added benefit of going for it, converting, and possibly running out the clock to make the field goal the last play. That’s why I think Houston likely errored in not going for that one. A past win’s unlikely success potentially leading to a future loss.

The Lions got a little conservative on their ensuing drive too, and they even willingly kicked it on third down instead of trying to gain a few more yards for Jake Bates, who just narrowly made a kick from 58 yards to tie the game with 5:01 left. That one went to the right. This time, Bates was narrowly inside the uprights to the left as time expired on a 52-yard game-winning field goal, shocking the Texans in a 26-23 final.

https://twitter.com/Sandman7773/status/1855832515463757928

That’s about as close as it gets. Like the Chiefs, maybe the Lions are just the chosen team this year. You have to go back to that crazy Cowboys-Bills game in Buffalo on MNF in 2007 to find the last time a road team won after throwing five picks. The Cowboys recovered a late onside kick in that one to pull it off. The Lions were less dire than that, a real indictment on how poorly the Texans played offensively after halftime.

I think it’s safe to say neither C.J. Stroud nor Jared Goff will be winning MVP after this game, but it sure was an entertaining and dramatic mess I’d watch over most games this season.

Steelers at Commanders: In Russ We Trust

This was the game I was most interested in watching Sunday, and for the most part, it delivered with a 28-27 final. But despite all those points, I wouldn’t say the offenses and quarterbacks played that great. In fact, both quarterbacks completed 50% of their passes for about 200 yards and 3 sacks each.

But it was Russell Wilson pushing the ball down the field to his wideouts that made the difference as George Pickens had a great touchdown catch (among other highlights), and it was Mike Williams who delivered in his team debut with the 32-yard touchdown with 2:22 left to put the Steelers ahead for good.

Wilson just lives for those moments, and he might have had the go-ahead drive earlier had Jaylen Warren not fumbled at the 1-yard line. But it’s a tough loss for Washington, which led 24-14 in the third quarter. But the Commanders were just off on some throws by Jayden Daniels, who wasn’t as sharp as his reputation, and his receivers also just dropped some easy ones as there were plays to be had against the Pittsburgh defense.

But the outcome could have absolutely been different had old tight end Zach Ertz been better on a 4th-and-9 at midfield as Washington tried to drive for a winning field goal. Ertz cut the route off a yard too short of the marker, his initial forward progress was good for a first down, but he went backwards on his own, his knee went down before he was touched, and he didn’t get a good extension to pick up that last yard. So, the result was a turnover on downs even if it was really close, and had they ruled it a first down initially, it probably would have stood. But Ertz needs to be a little better there.

Washington still had every timeout left, so the game wasn’t over. But the Steelers sent their offense back out there on 4th-and-1 at the Washington 49 with the likely intention of trying to draw the Commanders offsides instead of actually going for it with 1:02 left. Shockingly, the Commanders bit hard for it quickly and that was enough to move the chains with the neutral zone infraction penalty. Game over.

But that’s the kind of game where you are happy to have someone like Russell Wilson, who lives for those moments, instead of someone like Justin Fields, who shrinks in them. Now we’ll see if the Steelers (7-2) can continue their upset streak against the Ravens at home next week in a very big game in the rivalry.

Vikings at Jaguars: Sam Darnold vs. Mac Jones in Crunch Time Is Pure Hell

A matchup between Sam Darnold and Mac Jones at quarterback is just wrong. It was bad in 2021, and it was even worse Sunday. Darnold couldn’t stop throwing picks early into the end zone, but the good news is the Vikings wised up in time to not let him do it again in the fourth quarter. They just ran the ball and kicked a 34-yard field goal to take a 9-7 lead with 7:14 left.

That’s usually not good enough to hold up in this league, but it is when Mac Jones is filling in for Trevor Lawrence on the other side. Jones had the game’s only touchdown run from 1 yard out, but that would be Jacksonville’s only score in the game as we were reminded of just how brutal Jones is in crunch time.

In the last half of this quarter, the Jaguars had the ball three times, and they ended each with a Jones turnover, including a fumbled snap and two picks before the Vikings ran out the clock in an ugly 12-7 win that could be a sign of more things to come for Darnold this season.

Christ, what a matchup. After the game, Darnold is now 4-17 (.190) at fourth-quarter comeback opportunities in his career while Jones is 2-14 (.125). Two of the worst to ever do it.

But any time I see a quarterback, and this is rare, turn it over three times in one quarter in these situations, I think about the fact that Peyton Manning went seven seasons with just 3 turnovers in losses in 4QC/GWD situations. He threw a Hail Mary interception against the 2003 Jaguars and 2007 Chargers (after Adam Vinatieri missed a 29-yard field goal), and he had a strip-sack against the undefeated Patriots in 2007. That’s it. Then, of course, the Tracy Porter pick-six happened in Super Bowl XLIV, but people acted like Manning always did that when it just wasn’t true.

But Mac Jones? He always does stuff like this. That part is true.

Bills at Colts: Buffalo Glad to Face Quarterback with No Future in Indy

It must have sucked for the rest of the Colts to play well enough to beat Buffalo, but Joe Flacco had other ideas. Not only did he start the game with a brutal pick-six, but he finished with three picks, a strip-sack, and he took a sack on a fourth down near the red zone where the Colts probably should have just taken the field goal in a 20-13 game.

Instead, they lost 30-20, and that’s with a garbage-time touchdown at the end. Just a miserable outing for Flacco, who I initially supported for starting by benching Anthony Richardson. But if these last two games are the best he can muster, they might as well go back to Richardson and see what he has.

Josh Allen had his first multi-interception game of the season, but it didn’t even matter since he still made enough big plays that Flacco couldn’t match on the other side.

It’s not the ideal performance for Buffalo a week before the Kansas City game, but it showed they can create a bunch of turnovers, which could give them a leg up in that one.

49ers at Buccaneers: Stop Drafting Kickers High

Christian McCaffrey made his 2024 debut for the 49ers, but he didn’t find the end zone, and his best contributions were in the passing game with 6 catches for 68 yards. But I’m more interested in the return of my San Francisco whipping boy, kicker Jake Moody.

Moody ultimately won this game, 23-20, with a 44-yard field goal as time expired, but if he did his job better earlier, then it wouldn’t have come down to that. Moody was 3-of-6 on field goals in this game, missing wide from 49, 50, and 44 yards. With the way kickers are crushing the ball this season from deeper distances than that, this simply isn’t good enough for any kicker, let alone one the team infamously used the 99th pick in the third round on in 2023.

I just don’t see a kicker like this lasting long in San Francisco. Fortunately, they had enough weapons to come back and win the game, but this was very close to yet another blown lead as Baker Mayfield had some incredible plays late in the fourth quarter to tie it.

https://twitter.com/NFL/status/1855713396089565354

That’s Nick Bosa getting a stiff arm from Baker, though one has to wonder if this was some Trump voter solidarity, because since when does Bosa not take a quarterback down there? Weird play.

It’s the kind of game where you wonder how much of a difference Mike Evans would have made for the Bucs, who had to settle for a tying field goal, which set up the 49ers’ shot for redemption for Moody on the final snap.

But let’s also add Ricky Pearsall to the list of impressive rookie wideouts in this class. He had a 47-yard touchdown and was big on the game-winning drive. The 49ers only had five players get a target in this game, but even without Brandon Aiyuk being one of them, it’s an impressive group.

Too bad the most talented roster in the league has one of the worst kickers.

Eagles at Cowboys: The Sun Going Down on Jerry World Early This Year

The Cowboys got a boost defensively from the return of Micah Parsons, but their offense totally wasted it with Cooper Rush looking like his body was crippled by arthritis. What happened to the quarterback who threw for over 300 yards in some past starts and had game-winning drives in this offense? He was awful on Sunday, and Trey Lance isn’t a great option going forward. But they should make that change if Dak Prescott is getting surgery Monday to end his season.

But everyone’s season in Dallas is technically over at 3-6. Jalen Hurts turned it over twice and took 5 sacks, and the Cowboys still lost 34-6 at home. That’s what happens when your quarterback just loses the ball like a feeble old man would, and speaking of feeble old men, Ezekiel Elliott coughed one up into the end zone too. Oh, even the sun betrayed Dallas again as CeeDee Lamb couldn’t locate a ball because the sun blinded him.

The Cowboys finished 17-of-29 for 66 yards with a pick and 3 sacks taken. What a product, Jerry.

Titans at Chargers: Our Consistent Chargers

With these teams like the Bengals, you don’t know if they’re going to score and give up 7 points or 35 points. At least the Chargers are consistent as hell this season. They’re going to score 17-to-27 points, and they still haven’t allowed anyone but Pittsburgh to score 20 points on them.

They can run the ball, Justin Herbert makes good decisions, and they just win fairly low-drama games. It happened again against the Titans, who got Will Levis back but still struggled to score even if he wasn’t a turnover machine this week.

Instead, that defense had Levis feeling constipated as he took 7 sacks but only lost 18 yards on those plays. I had to look it up, and Rick Mirer for the 1996 Seahawks is the only other quarterback to take 7 sacks and not lose at least 25 yards in a game on record. Mirer also had 7 sacks for 18 yards lost against the Chiefs. You never want to be compared to Mirer.

Meanwhile, Herbert only had to throw 18 passes, completed 14 of them for 164 yards, ran for a touchdown, and didn’t take a sack. Finally, he’s enjoying the “easy” wins the NFL has to offer from time to time.

Also, I despise Calvin Ridley. He’s going on the permanent ban list after jacking up my parlay where he’d hit his under in receptions (4.5) in a Chargers’ win. He just had to catch his fifth pass for his second touchdown of the day with 49 seconds left to make it a 27-17 final.

But that’s also the first time this season the Chargers had a game go over 39.5 points, so there’s that streak over with.

https://twitter.com/ScottKacsmar/status/1855893726268166575

Falcons at Saints: That Younghoe Not Coo

Everything was pointing against the Saints this week, but that was one of my upset picks as I know division games are weird, and the Falcons really struggled to put the ball in the end zone against the Saints earlier this year.

It happened again, and the Saints didn’t help them out with a pair of return touchdowns this time. Instead, they got two surprise touchdowns to Marquez Valdes-Scantling, who only signed recently after all their wide receiver injuries.

But the Saints didn’t do a good job of finishing this game, a familiar scene for them. They punted on 5-of-6 drives after halftime, but the Falcons couldn’t capitalize as kicker Younghoe Koo ended up missing three field goals, including a 46-yard field goal that hit the upright with 6:39 left. It would have tied the game at 20.

But Kirk Cousins was later picked by Tyrann Mathieu, and making it even worse was that he gave up the 2-minute warning in the process (clock at 1:59 after pick). The Falcons had all three timeouts to get the ball back after the defense did its part with a three-and-out, but that pick was costly, and Derek Carr saved the Falcons a lot of time with an incomplete pass on third down.

So, Cousins had one more shot from his 14 with 1:35 left. But an inefficient drive took too long, and Cousins ended up throwing short of the sticks on the last play, which was no man’s land, but it was also a situation where he needed to do something different than this:

https://twitter.com/GAFollowers/status/1855717819284857026

I know he couldn’t spike it since it was 4th down, but they got to get something more to the sideline to convert and take a shot at the long field goal. But given the way Koo’s day went, he probably would have missed that too.

At least the Saints have ended one of the most brutal 7-game losing streaks following a historic start.

Jets at Cardinals: Cooked

It’s hard to say what the nadir is for this Jets’ season as we thought losing to the Broncos in 10-9 game and losing to the Patriots would be pretty damn low. But they were dominated on both sides of the ball in Arizona in a 31-6 loss where you have to wonder if Aaron Rodgers doesn’t just retire after this mess of a season.

But this game had just 13 total possessions, and I’m not sure I’ve ever seen a game with a number so low that was such a blowout at 31-6. Usually you see a very close game with both teams scoring, but the Jets had two field goals, two punts, a lost fumble, and they turned it over on downs in the fourth quarter when the game was way out of reach.

The Cardinals only had five full possessions deep into the third quarter, and they scored 4 touchdowns and a field goal on them. I guess we have to acknowledge that the Cardinals are decent this season. Murray was 22-of-24 for 266 yards while rushing for a pair of touchdowns as only he can with his unique “scooting” style of runs.

Meanwhile, Rodgers looks every bit his age. He finished the game 6/13 for 31 yards on his targets to Davante Adams.

Patriots at Bears: They Are Who We Thought They Were

How are we in Week 10 and Caleb Williams looks like the worst rookie quarterback now? What exactly did they teach him during the bye week? Anyone can point to the opponent difficulty for the 3-game winning streak against the Rams/Panthers/Jaguars, but it’s not like Commanders/Cardinals/Patriots are a murderer’s row of defenses in 2024.

He took 9 sacks in this game. Isn’t that supposed to be what Drake Maye is facing on the other side? Maye was only sacked once and it didn’t lose any yards. He also threw for 64 more yards on 5 fewer passes than Williams, and he continues to be a more productive runner.

But what a bummer of a performance at home as the Bears were 1-of-14 on third down. That’s how you manage just a single field goal on 11 drives. The Bears didn’t have an official turnover in this game, but that might have been more fun than watching them punt 8 times in a 19-3 loss.

Giants at Panthers: Germany Can Keep Daniel Jones

With each week we should get closer and closer to not having to see Daniel Jones in a Giants uniform, especially not in an island game. I slept thru most of this one, but I saw him run for a touchdown to make things interesting in the fourth quarter before both backs turned it over. That includes Tyrone Tracy deflecting the ball to the defense in the red zone of a 17-14 game.

Then Tracy fumbled in overtime too, which makes you wonder if he’s just had enough of Jones’ shit and wants him out of town too. The Panthers were gifted a game-winning drive by just running it 3 times for 5 yards before a 36-yard field goal won the game 20-17 in overtime. That’s a little 2-game winning streak for Dave Canales’ team now.

New York (via New Jersey) football is truly the worst these days. But I’m not sure how they expect to grow the game in Germany when we’re clearly not sending our best even if they turn out to be low-scoring games that are close at the end like Colts-Patriots was last year.

But we really need to stop unleashing Daniel Jones on millions of people who just want to watch a good game.

Next week: Week 11 might be as good as it gets this regular season. Granted, most of the games look like shit on paper, but just think about the highlights. Commanders at Eagles for the first time this year on Thursday night for control of the NFC East. Ravens at Steelers is a monster game in the AFC/AFC North at 1:00 p.m. Chiefs-Bills is the huge 4:25 showdown. Even Bengals-Chargers on SNF could be pretty good and has importance in the wild card race. Not exactly sure which angle I want to write about this week, but I’ll have something about these games.  

NFL 2024 Week 5 Predictions: Revenge Week Edition

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

Is the passing game back in the NFL? The last two games have seen the Lions complete 100% of their passes and we were treated to Thursday night’s spectacle where Kirk Cousins threw for 509 yards in a win over Tampa Bay. I can only hope this leads to better results this weekend since there are some quality games in Jets-Vikings, Bills-Texans, Ravens-Bengals, Cowboys-Steelers, and Saints-Chiefs.

But there are some revenge-themed games here too with Stefon Diggs taking on the Bills for the first time since the trade, and Sam Darnold already beat the Jets with Carolina in 2021, but he’ll get his crack at them in the first London game of the season with the 4-0 Vikings. Steelers-Cowboys is also a classic rivalry from the 70s with flagship franchises, and that Ravens-Bengals game should be a good one with both teams knowing how important it is after their slow starts.

This Week’s Articles

NFL 2024 Week 5 Predictions

The Falcons really had no business winning that game, but that’s the third time this season I can say that about that team.

I wanted to pick more underdogs this week but found it difficult. Sure, I can see some wild things happening like the Jets spanking the Vikings, the Bengals staying alive against Baltimore, Washington getting exposed defensively and a learning curve experience for Jayden Daniels.

Jets-Vikings: I am starting to believe in this Minnesota team as it’s the only team that hasn’t played a game with a 4QC attempt yet. Maybe that changes here, but when an old Aaron Rodgers is on the other side, I feel okay with trusting Minnesota to go to 5-0.

Ravens-Bengals: When Lamar Jackson is healthy, he usually beats the Bengals. Period. They’ve looked great with Derrick Henry running over everyone the last two weeks, but the Bengals have also perked up offensively. It should be a good game and I’m going Baltimore again.

Panthers-Bears: Are we trusting Chicago again? I think it’s a tight game and I’m on the Diontae Johnson props again.

Dolphins-Patriots: I’d pick Miami in Miami but give me the Patriots at home. Tyler Huntley should be better than Monday night, but that team is a mess right now and injuries are piling up too.

Bills-Texans: Big one here. I had the Texans winning it in my preseason picks and I’m sticking to it. I think C.J. Stroud uses all of his weapons and throws for over 300 yards in a close win.

Colts-Jaguars: It looks like Joe Flacco at QB, but there’s no Jonathan Taylor, and the Colts haven’t won in Jacksonville since 2014. It’s time to end the losing streak, and by that I mean Trevor Lawrence losing 9 straight starts. Something has to give here and I’m giving the Jags a win or else they’ll be ready to fire Doug Pederson by the end of the month.

Browns-Commanders: My Commanders look to go 4-1 and I hope they do for obvious reasons. But I do like an Amari Cooper TD to continue the trend of No. 1 WRs abusing that secondary. It’d also raise his draft stock.

Cardinals-49ers: Four straight blowouts of Arizona by the 49ers, and I think that continues here.

Raiders-Broncos: Speaking of revenge, do you know the Raiders are 8-0 against Denver since 2020? I think the streak continues here as Maxx Crosby returns to the defense, and I just don’t trust Bo Nix yet.

Packers-Rams: LaFleur gets the best of McVay again and hopefully Josh Jacobs finally finds the end zone.

Giants-Seahawks: An upset wouldn’t shock me with Seattle’s injured defense, but they need Malik Nabers for that. Seattle bounces back at home.

Cowboys-Steelers: I would pick the Cowboys if they had their pass rushers (or just Parsons), or if I trusted the offense beyond CeeDee. But I think the Steelers squeak out a 23-20 win. Just remember Justin Fields is 0-22 when the opponent scores 21+ points. But if you have Mike McCarthy in a close game, we know how that usually goes.

Saints-Chiefs: Screw it, give me the upset in the first game without Rashee Rice. The Saints in a 4QC win to end the KC winning streak.

NFL Stat Oddity: Week 5

~ Scott ~ 17 Comments

Sunday in the NFL lasted just over 15 hours from the first snap in London to the last snap in Kansas City after a weather delay. If that wasn’t the longest day of action in NFL history, then I don’t know what else could be.

It was a day of ugly field goal kicking, yet the Vikings somehow pulled off a 54-yard game-winning kick. Of course, Detroit helped by making its incredible 10-point comeback (helped by an Alexander Mattison fumble) a 1-point lead by going for two with 37 seconds left. That was too much time with the Vikings having two timeouts. I know Kirk Cousins kind of sucks at comebacks and his kickers are not reliable, but that was a bad decision to go for two there. Play for overtime after holding down the Vikings from scoring much all day. Instead, the Vikings got a drive together because they had to and won the game on a 54-yard field goal that Greg Joseph actually made despite being an employee of the Vikings. At least it gave us this moment:

It was a day of close games as we had 10 comeback opportunities in Week 5, outdoing the previous high of any week this season (eight). Let’s quickly hit on three of them since I need to wrap this up after getting a late start.

49ers at Cardinals: Trey Lance made his starting debut, but he couldn’t keep the rocket launcher under wraps when the 49ers just needed a simple scoring drive in a 17-10 loss to the now 5-0 Cardinals, who apparently are not going to score 31-plus every week this season. Kyle Shanahan loses another close game? Jimmy Garoppolo and George Kittle out with injuries again? Who could have imagined?

Patriots at Texans: The Patriots came through with a comeback win over the Houston Texans after Davis Mills had maybe the most absurd stat line yet for a rookie against a Bill Belichick-coached defense. Mills just had an early contender for worst game of the decade against Buffalo last week, but now he has the ninth game on record where a QB lost with a passer rating of at least 140.0 (min. 25 passes). I guess the Patriots can still win games where their quarterback was not the best one on the field.

Bears at Raiders: Finally, Jon Gruden’s Raiders had their “but his emails” loss at home to the Bears. Maybe it was too much of a distraction, and maybe he just showed his true colors. All I know is once you blow some smoke up his ass, this is the kind of performance you can count on in the next game. The last two sentences are about Derek Carr, by the way.

But the only game that came close to pulling off instant classic status came in the late afternoon slate instead of the prime-time matchup between the Bills and Chiefs. Browns-Chargers was the Shawn Michaels vs. Razor Ramon Ladder Match in WrestleMania X of Week 5 in the NFL, but I have to start with the perception-changing game that played out in Kansas City.

This season in Stat Oddity:

Bills at Chiefs: About That Dynasty…

About the last thing I want to do is write an obituary for the 2021 Chiefs after Week 5 and after a ridiculously tough schedule where the Browns, Ravens, Chargers, and now Bills all gave them their best shot. But there is no denying that the Chiefs failed three of those tests from their key AFC challengers and barely escaped the Browns in Arrowhead in Week 1. The offense has too many turnovers and the defense is going for historic levels of suck. The 2021 Chiefs are the fourth team in NFL history to allow more than 28 points in each of the first five games, joining the 1954 Cardinals, 2012 Titans, and 2013 Giants. It’s like watching the 2000 Rams, the forgotten little defense-less brother to the 1999 and 2001 Super Bowl teams in St. Louis.

But through four weeks, the defense could be excused to a point as the offense was scoring a touchdown on 50% of its drives and converting on third down at a record rate. If not for a fumble in Baltimore, this team could easily be 3-1.

But that took a hit Sunday night as the Bills came in to avenge their two losses from 2020 and wiped the floor with the Chiefs, 38-20, despite a long weather delay at halftime. Getting blown out at home is just another layer of invincibility ripped away from the Chiefs in the Patrick Mahomes era. While the stakes were not as high, the 18-point loss looked worse than the team’s 31-9 loss in Super Bowl 55 to Tampa Bay. At least on that night the reshuffled offensive line was a built-in excuse for the poor pass protection. The Chiefs just couldn’t come down with any of Mahomes’ miracle passes and the defense was stumped by simple play-action throws.

This was more of a beatdown. Mahomes played the first truly awful game of his NFL career, missing often on throws regardless of pressure or an open receiver. He completed 33-of-54 passes for 272 yards and had three turnovers, including a pick-six, a red-zone pick after another tipped ball, and a fumbled snap in the rain to end things. The bounces? They’re no longer going Kansas City’s way and that was predictable.

But this was not another blown lead in the fourth quarter like Baltimore and Los Angeles. The Chiefs led 10-7 early in the second quarter and never led again. The best they could do was make it 31-20 in the fourth quarter. But after Josh Allen seemingly threw an interception from his own end zone, the Chiefs were flagged for roughing the passer. It was a weak call, but it was also in a series of calls on both teams that made me question what roughing the passer and pass interference are in this league anymore. The refs had a bad night, but they didn’t decide this game.

That roughing call stands out the most just because it killed any chance for an exciting finish. Allen was still at his own 23 after that call. The Chiefs could have stopped the Bills, but instead they watched them march 77 more yards for a game-clinching touchdown to go up 38-20.

Maybe that Buffalo defense is for real as this was not a matter of beating up on a wounded offense like in the first four weeks of the season. They smacked the Chiefs around in Arrowhead. I asked in the offseason what really changed to improve this Buffalo defense from the mediocre unit it was a year ago that had no real hope of winning a Super Bowl? Well, one name I underestimated was first-round pick Gregory Roussea. The defensive end did his best J.J. Watt impersonation and tipped a Mahomes pass at the line to himself for a big red-zone pick in the third quarter. The Bills reportedly did not even blitz Mahomes once in this game, choosing to rush four and play Cover 2 to take away the big plays.

The Chiefs had just two plays that gained more than 17 yards in the game, a shockingly low figure for this offense. One was a 23-yard scramble by Mahomes too. This was a big difference in the meetings last year when the Chiefs did what they wanted, and Allen’s offense couldn’t get anything big. On Sunday night, the Bills had seven plays of 20-plus yards, including four completions of 35-plus yards (two for touchdowns).

Allen had 315 yards on 15 completions. Other than a slow third quarter after the 70-plus minute halftime delay, the Bills were just about unstoppable on offense. Combine that with a defense capable of playing the Chiefs like this and it’s a championship combination. The Bills may only be an underdog one more time this season when they play in Tampa Bay. It seems rather likely that this team will be the favorite for the No. 1 seed in the AFC.

The Chiefs may be fortunate just to get a wild card at this point if things don’t tighten up on both sides of the ball but especially on defense.

With the Bills and Ravens stepping up this season against the Chiefs as well as the two teams I’m writing about next (Browns and Chargers), the AFC might be just fine going forward as a super competitive conference where any one of these teams can advance each year. It’s not going to be a runaway for Mahomes and the Chiefs to keep hosting AFC Championship Games and going to the Super Bowl. They had that window for three years and turned it into one championship while the rest of the teams were figuring themselves out.

If 2021 is any indication, those teams have figured out the Chiefs too.

Browns at Chargers: 47-42 Part Deux

What a whacky, fun game with huge plays, terrible tackling, six fourth down attempts (and then some negated by penalty), and 41 points in the fourth quarter alone. Of course, the Browns ended up on the wrong side of history again.

We may need to start calling Baker Mayfield the “Score 42 and Lose” QB after it happened to him for a third time. He lost his first career start, 45-42, to the Raiders in 2018. He lost 47-42 to the Ravens last year after Lamar Jackson returned from taking a shit. Now he’s lost 47-42 again to the Chargers in the second 47-42 game in NFL history. Mayfield is somehow 2-3 when he leads his team to at least 42 points while the rest of the NFL is 69-2 since 2018. The Browns (four times) have broken their tie with Washington and the Chiefs (three each) for the most losses in NFL history after scoring at least 42 points.

None of this is to say that Mayfield is the reason Cleveland loses these games. He was great on Sunday at playing through a torn labrum after some struggles in recent weeks. The offense was fantastic, but it is hard to win on the road when you allow five touchdowns on six second-half drives like the Browns did.

This thing was back and forth and not even a failed game-tying extra point by the Chargers with 3:15 left could derail it. That actually ended up helping the Chargers since the Browns did not go all out in a tied 42-42 game. Instead with a 42-41 lead, they ran on first down and on third-and-9 and let the Chargers get the ball back with plenty of time. Justin Herbert only needed one pass to get into field-goal range. After Austin Ekeler slid down at the Cleveland 3 with 1:38 left, the Browns called their final timeout. That slide tells me the Chargers were content with kicking the field goal to win 44-42 at the buzzer. A smart move even if you are shaky about it given the team’s historic struggles on special teams in crunch time.

So, why wouldn’t Herbert just take a series of knees to bleed the clock and kick the field goal? Head coach Brandon Staley is getting a ton of buzz for his embrace of analytics despite being a defensive coach, but he bungled the end of the Chiefs game by scoring a touchdown and giving Mahomes a shot to answer, and it happened again here. Ekeler got the carry and while he tried to not score, the Browns did the smart thing and pulled his ass into the end zone for the score with 91 seconds left.

Wow, just typing “91 seconds” really sells how much of a mistake this was. They gave a hot offense they couldn’t stop all day plenty of time to answer. It could have been an even more delicious addition to Chargers BINGO given the offense came up short on the two-point conversion and only led 47-42. Now the Browns could win it with a touchdown in regulation.

But it took 50 seconds for Mayfield to move the offense 11 yards as he only made short throws. That was piss-poor execution in that moment. After getting to the Cleveland 46, the Browns could not gain another yard and Mayfield’s Hail Mary fell incomplete with players bumping into each other.

Behind Staley and Herbert, the CHARGERS are leading the league with three game-winning drives. The CHARGERS are 4-1 in close games and lead the league with four defensive holds of a one-score lead.

Staley is far from perfect. His defense just gave up 42 points to a team that scored 14 last week. He’s mismanaged two of the last three finishes. He’s inherited an incredible young quarterback in Herbert who is making strides in his second season. But there is no denying that Staley is pushing this team to aggressively get leads and hold onto them once they have them. The Chargers of old would never be 4-1 right now and that is a credit to this new coach.

The Browns may still be the “good enough to get beat close” team in the AFC, which is still a huge step up from the pre-Mayfield era. But for a change, the Chargers just may have the potential to be closers and real contenders this season. That sounds like the setup for an incoming beatdown in Baltimore next Sunday, but what if this team is just finally different?

Packers at Bengals: Kicking Woes

Weird things always happen when Aaron Rodgers plays the Bengals, but this game takes the cake. If you wanted to script an overtime tie, apparently you have to get the Packers or Bengals involved. I thought for sure this one was headed there after the two kickers combined to miss five go-ahead field goals in a span of six drives.

Fortunately, we got a winner. Fortunately, it was the right winner too as Green Bay should have put this game away multiple times in the fourth quarter and again to start overtime.

Would I have been happy if Rodgers got credit for a game-winning drive after Aaron Jones ripped off a 57-yard run and he threw two incomplete passes? No, but Mason Crosby has to hit that 36-yard field goal after a streak of 27 straight makes. Would I have said Rodgers was unlucky had he lost after his kicker missed from 36 and Cincinnati kicker Evan McPherson hit from 57? Yes, absolutely. But the Bengals called a run on third-and-2 instead of letting Joe Burrow deliver a dagger throw to set up a higher-percentage kick. Shame on them.

Would I have been fine with Rodgers getting a game-winning drive after a 20-yard pass to Davante Adams, who shined with 206 yards, to set up Crosby from 51? Sure, that’s another one-minute drill for him this season. But Crosby was wide left to set up overtime.

Would I have been amused had Rodgers lost another overtime game without touching the ball? Probably. But Burrow seemed to erase any chance of that with an instant pick to start overtime.

Would I have been pissed if Rodgers got credit for a game-winning drive in overtime for losing 5 yards on two Jones runs and watching Crosby hit from 40? Damn right. But the kicker missed again. At least it spared us a crap game-winning drive.

Burrow hit a pass for 21 yards to the Green Bay 41 again, but did they learn anything from the previous mistake? No, they ran the ball three times again and settled for a 49-yard field goal by a no-name kicker. He missed wide left too.

Finally, Rodgers hit passes of 20 and 15 yards to put this one to an end after Crosby finally connected from 49 yards out with 1:55 left. I am content with that being the game-winning drive in this one.

At least it had a winner, because I can’t remember ever seeing a clutch kicking display this bad.

Broncos at Steelers: The Standard Improved?

Last week in Green Bay, the Steelers showed they can score an opening-drive touchdown, and they did it again on Sunday after a beautiful 50-yard pass from Ben Roethlisberger to Diontae Johnson again gave the Steelers the early lead. Last week, the Steelers showed some offensive line improvement and a running game that actually could get gains of 3-4 yards instead of seeing Najee Harris get hit in the backfield immediately. This continued against Denver with Harris rushing for 122 yards to finally snap the team’s 11-game streak of not rushing for 90 yards.

Dare I say, the Steelers showed offensive improvement for the second week in a row? The other problem last week was inaccuracy from Roethlisberger. He was sharp in this game, especially early and especially on third down where the Steelers finished 7/12 compared to Denver going 2/12 on third down (but ¾ on fourth down). One week after a concussion, I was not impressed with Teddy Bridgewater or this Denver offense at all until he started to mount a 24-6 comeback in the fourth quarter. The game got a bit tight at 27-19, but he eventually struggled in the red zone again and threw an interception in the final seconds to end it.

While far from dominant, this was much closer to a classic game from the Steelers where both units played well for much of the game and they were able to win at home. Can they stack another one against the Geno Smith-led Seahawks next week? We’ll see, but if this offense shows up in prime time against that Seattle defense, then it may not be such an ugly display of football from Pittsburgh like in recent times. I was not surprised by the win, but that says more about my thoughts on how legit Denver was. But I can see actual improvement from the Pittsburgh offense in the last two weeks compared to the first three.

Eagles at Panthers: Pumpkins and Pretenders

What the fvck were these teams doing?

Jalen Hurts had nine failed completions in the first half, but none in the second as the offense finally started making plays that gained more than 10 yards. He also got his legs involved as the passing in this game was just atrocious for both teams. At least the Panthers got Chuba Hubbard to rush for 101 yards in Christian McCaffrey’s absence. The Eagles once again barely handed the ball off to their backs until very late in the game.

Sam Darnold had three interceptions and may have turned back into a pumpkin just in time for Halloween. But it was a blocked punt that set the Eagles up at the Carolina 27 for their game-winning drive. Darnold then threw his third pick and the Eagles ran out the clock.

Obviously, the transitive property never has and never will mean a thing in the NFL. If you just judged Carolina and Philadelphia by how they played against the Cowboys, then you wouldn’t have expected the Panthers to blow this one. But they did after leading 15-3 early.

Is either team going anywhere this season? I doubt it, but this was some low-key horrific offensive football.

Top 100 NFL Quarterbacks of the 21st Century: Part I (100-87)

~ Scott ~ 7 Comments

As I get ready for the 2021 NFL season, an update to my largest database – stats on every game since 2001 – gave me an opportunity to write about a perfect collection of round numbers.

Including the playoffs, there are 100 quarterbacks who have started at least 30 games in the last 20 seasons (2001-20). If you love top 100 lists, the central limit theorem, or the 21st century, then there is something there for you. As we near the 20-year anniversary of 9/11, I thought this would be a good time before final predictions to reflect on these two decades of football given that 2001 was the first season where I really became a die-hard viewer of all things NFL. It was the season where I started watching far more than just the Steelers game and the occasional Monday Night Football game and the Super Bowl.

So, how about a ranking of those 100 quarterbacks? This is an exercise I like to do every few years to test where my values are in analyzing quarterback play. How does one weigh a career like Josh Allen’s after he blew up in his third season to someone like Matt Schaub, who had several years of solid play (2007-12) but never up to the level of Allen’s 2020?

What really stood out to me about this process was just how difficult it was to sort the quarterbacks ranked 18-86. The top and bottom of the list came together rather easily, but in between there was a lot of mediocrity and tough calls.

But right now, this first part is focusing on the bottom 14 quarterbacks. Remember, a player had to start at least 30 games to make the list. I have seen plenty of worse quarterbacks play in the NFL in the last 20 years: Nathan Peterman, Ryan Lindley, Curtis Painter, Caleb Hanie, JaMarcus Russell, Cody Pickett, Jeff Tuel, etc. Who said you need experience to suck so good? (I can make that joke since being the host of Jeopardy! is not in my future.)

On to the list…

100. Blaine Gabbert

It pains me to see that Blaine Gabbert has more Super Bowl rings than Dan Marino and Andrew Luck (and many others) combined. Even more painful than Cecil Shorts in 2012 (Colts fans know that one). But seriously, Gabbert may be the worst quarterback in NFL history who got to play this many games. By getting in a game against Detroit and throwing two touchdowns so that Tom Brady would not get all the stat-padding, Gabbert broke the 1,500-attempt mark that day to officially qualify for NFL rate stats. His 72.3 passer rating is hardly the worst of all time because the era we are in will not allow it. But his ANY/A+ at Pro Football Reference, which does adjust for sacks and era, is 77, beating out Rick Mirer (80) and Kyle Boller (82) for the lowest among all passers with at least 1,500 attempts.

Gabbert is also such a chickenshit quarterback that he makes Alex Smith look like Aaron Rodgers when it comes to throwing past the sticks on third down. I may have called the stat BLAINE instead of ALEX had I known better. Behind Line Attempts Is Nurturing Existence. It just doesn’t flow as well.

99. Joey Harrington

Yikes, what a draft class in 2002. David Carr went No. 1 to expansion Houston and couldn’t stop taking sacks. Joey Harrington went No. 3 to Detroit and couldn’t get rid of the ball quicker. He wanted no part of that smoke. Harrington still has two of the top 10 seasons in lowest sack% in NFL history. Unfortunately, it made him lead ineffective offenses. Harrington was 1-11 when he threw for at least 255 yards. He was 1-34 as a starter when his team allowed more than 21 points.

My top memory of him was in 2004, his best season. He threw for a season-high 361 yards and what should have been a game-tying touchdown to force overtime with the Vikings. But the Lions botched the extra point and lost 28-27. Harrington looked crushed on the sideline. At least he got some revenge with three touchdowns on Detroit as a member of the Dolphins in 2006. But in six seasons as a starter, Harrington never cracked 6.5 YPA in any season. His 5.79 YPA is still the lowest in NFL history, and if you know how much I like that stat, then you know he was going to rank near the bottom of this list.

98. Kyle Boller

This may be stretching the truth, but let’s go with the alleged story that Brian Billick and the Ravens drafted Boller in the first round because he could throw a football 70 yards from his knees. That sure came in handy as he struggled to throw for 70 yards in the first half of games. But that night in 2007 when this bust nearly upset the unbeaten Patriots was when I knew that team would not go undefeated. Not when you should have lost to Kyle Boller a week after A.J. Feeley gave you a scare.

I did not plan this, but my first three quarterbacks have the lowest YPA of any quarterbacks to enter the league this century and throw at least 1,500 passes. Harrington (5.79) and Boller (5.88) did not even crack 6.0 YPA, but Gabbert (6.08) actually looks worse if you adjust for era.

97. Trent Edwards

Any quarterback known as “Captain Checkdown” will be on my shit list. Oddly enough, Edwards was probably still better in the pros as a third-round pick than JaMarcus Russell and Brady Quinn were in that 2007 class. But I gave up any hope for him after that 2009 opener against the Patriots when the Bills literally coughed up a 24-13 lead by fumbling a kickoff in between touchdowns. All Edwards had to do was lead a game-winning field goal drive, but he took two sacks and that was that. Not sure I ever watched another game from him.

96. Colt McCoy

Fun fact: McCoy has the worst record as a starter against the spread (9-20-1, .317) of any of the quarterbacks in this top 100.

My memories of McCoy are from college when it was so sad to see him injured at the start of a national championship game. In the NFL, I definitely saw his first start against the Steelers in 2010, a 28-10 loss where he was not that bad given the circumstances. Then the Browns upset the Saints and Patriots, but those games were more about the defense and making a Madden cover star out of Peyton Hillis than anything McCoy did.  Sounds like the Seattle upset last year he started for the Giants. He threw for just 105 yards in that one. He is still in the league (Cardinals), but if I had to venture a guess at something McCoy is actually good at, I would go with standing for the national anthem.

95. Christian Ponder

I never believed in Ponder, but it would have been nice if he got to start that 2012 NFC wild card game in Green Bay instead of Joe Webb. Especially since the Vikings beat the Packers in Week 17 with Ponder having arguably the best game of his career. But he was someone who had to be carried by a running game (Adrian Peterson). Ponder had 136.8 rushing yards per start to support him in his career. The only other quarterback in this top 100 with more than 130 yards per game is Jimmy Garoppolo (139.2), but we know Ponder never had a season like Garoppolo had in 2019. He never had a five-game run like Garoppolo did when he joined the 49ers either.

94. Rex Grossman

The Sex Cannon himself. It is still hard to believe the 2006 Bears got to the Super Bowl with this guy. He may have started the “will good [QB name] or bad [QB name] show up today?” with his play being so erratic that year. His performance against the Cardinals on Monday Night Football that year gave us the great Denny Green meme that will live in infamy, and it’s also the worst quarterback performance you will ever see during a 20-point comeback win.

If “Peyton Manning won his only Super Bowl with the Colts against Rex Grossman” is a diss, then maybe Drew Brees and the Saints shouldn’t have lost to them by 25 points in the damn NFC Championship Game. That one always bugs me. Amusingly, Grossman swept the 2011 Giants with Washington. Yep, the same Giants that swept the Patriots that year and won the Super Bowl.

The only positive thing I’ll say is that Grossman had that “fuck it, I’m throwing deep” mentality that is refreshing to see in a league where guys like Gabbert and Edwards play so scared. This is why Grossman is ranked a little higher because he could actually have some decent games. But his lows were also really god damn low.

93. J.P. Losman

If the 2004 quarterback class is compared to the 1983 quarterback class, then I guess Losman is the Todd Blackledge eyesore of the group. Go figure, Buffalo picked the rotten apple. But looking at his stats again, I am amused that he raised his completion percentage from 49.6% in 2005 to 62.5% in 2006, his best season. Wow, I thought only Josh Allen did that kind of increase?

Relax, #BillsMafia. Allen was much better in 2020 than Losman was in 2006, which proved to be fool’s gold as he never got better. But at least that 2006 season was better than anything Captain Checkdown Trent Edwards did for the team.

92. Chad Henne

Man, this guy went 0-4 against Ohio State only to get payback on the Browns in the playoffs 12 years after being drafted. F’n savage. Yes, Henne finally has a career moment after stepping in for an injured Patrick Mahomes last postseason. He scrambled unexpectedly for 13 yards on a third-and-14 before icing the game with a fourth-down completion to Tyreek Hill.

What else can I say about Henne? He is tied with John Elway and Steve McNair for the most seasons in NFL history (three) with no more than 15 touchdown passes on at least 450 pass attempts. Also, I don’t feel like updating this, but Henne has barely played since 2014 so the numbers probably are similar. Apparently, he has had some great fumble luck.

Finally, with the way the game is going statistically, it is very likely that Henne will be the last player who will ever have three seasons with more interceptions than touchdowns (min. 400 attempts).

91. Sam Darnold

I may be hedging a little that he will get better away from Adam Gase and the Jets, but so far, I am not buying anything Darnold is selling except that 46-yard touchdown run against the Broncos last year. That was a sweet play, but overall, he’s a sub-60% passer who takes an inordinate number of sacks and throws too many picks. He has also been trending in the wrong direction, but Carolina is a fresh start for him. Just sweep for ghosts first.

90. Geno Smith

Christ, do you see why the AFC East played out the way it did for two decades? I’m on my 11th quarterback, and so far, we have two draft picks by the Bills, one by the Dolphins, and two by the Jets. Believe it or not, Geno was once thought to be an option for the No. 1 pick to the Chiefs in that dreadful 2013 draft.

Smith led five game-winning drives as a 2013 rookie, but I know somewhere I wrote that they weren’t impressive ones. The one against the Patriots in overtime saw him complete just one 12-yard pass early in the drive. Everything else was a run. Geno just never sold me. He made modest statistical improvement in 2014, but the team got worse, and he only has started two games since. Just a brutal quarterback draft where Smith is in competition with Mike Glennon and EJ Manuel for best in class.

89. Quincy Carter

Carter last played for the Jets (2004), but he was supposed to still be Dallas’ starter that season. However, the team cut him in August after substance abuse problems. This actually saved Tony Romo’s roster spot that year as an undrafted player in his second year. But Carter was carried by the defense to the playoffs in 2003 and was never anything special. His most notable game, which was his only 300-yard game and his only high-scoring win, started with a pick-six actually against the Giants on MNF. The Cowboys won 35-32 in overtime, but just getting there took a 26-yard completion from Carter in the final seconds to tie the game.

To think, we may never have seen Romo do anything in this league if Carter was more professional in his youth.

88. David Carr

Once upon a time, Carr was only the third true rookie quarterback to start 16 games, joining Rick Mirer and Peyton Manning. We did not see this again until 2008 when Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco flipped the script on starting rookies in Week 1. Now, we see it all the time, but it was a bit risky to do that to Carr on an expansion Texans team that was not good like the Panthers and Jaguars were in 1995.

Carr took a beating that first year and was sacked 76 times, an NFL record unlikely to be broken. His 68 sacks in his third season (2005) rank third all time. Carr’s career sack rate (10.54%) is the highest in NFL history by anyone not named Greg Landry.

But I feel like Carr’s career is a good case study in QB statistics. I was in high school when he came into the league, and given all the historic sack numbers he was taking, this led naïve, inexperienced me to believe that sacks are an offensive line stat. It’s all on the line to protect the quarterback. Of course, as I gained experience in studying the game, I saw that sacks are much more of a quarterback stat. He must get rid of the ball in a timely fashion or else you get pressure and sacks. The line obviously still shares some of the responsibility, and quick sacks can be utilized to place proper blame, but overall this is more reflective of the quarterback’s performance than the line’s.

While Houston was absolutely weak in the OL department in Carr’s career, note that he went to Carolina in 2007 and still had a sack rate of 8.7%. I think if we had the advanced metrics for Carr’s Houston career, we would have seen a quarterback who did his line few favors.

Then there is completion percentage. Carr’s 2006 season under new coach Gary Kubiak always felt so fishy to me because he led the league in completion percentage at 68.3%, which was one of the highest seasons ever at the time. But he was 24th in DVOA, 21st in QBR, threw more picks than touchdowns, and the offense was still 20th in yards per drive and 23rd in points per drive. Carr’s other numbers were just bad. It was a lot of dinking and dunking to cut down on sacks and boost that completion percentage. This season felt like a blueprint for Sam Bradford to follow years later and make completion percentage a meaningless metric when depth of target is not taken into account.

So, Carr had a pretty shit career and I think he would have been a bust in any city. With that said, do you think this tweet had anything to do with all three Carr brothers blocking me on Twitter?

Truthfully, I think I was already blocked before it. I’ve pulled no punches in saying that this is the softest family in football. These guys do not handle criticism well at all, and now we see David showing a lot of favoritism for his brother as a media analyst.

So, why even rank him this high? His 2004 season is probably the best season by any of the quarterbacks listed so far. He was not carried to team success like a Ponder or Grossman or Carter. It actually seemed like Carr turned the corner, and despite still taking a league-high 49 sacks, he cut his percentage down and the Texans had somewhat of a functioning offense (14th in yards per drive, 21st in points per drive). This was Andre Johnson’s second year on the team, and there is nothing wrong with giving your young quarterback a legit No. 1 receiver.

Of course, we learned that playing the defenses of the 2004 AFC South and NFC North were very beneficial to putting up great numbers that year, one where all offensive numbers were up after the NFL reminded officials that illegal contact after five yards is still a rule. If that schedule boost helped produce career years for Peyton Manning and Daunte Culpepper, it could also work for Carr and Joey Harrington as both peaked that season and never came close to repeating it.

If Carr was “broken” by his 2002 rookie situation, then 2004 never should have been possible, right? This is why I will never buy into the idea that you can “ruin” a quarterback by playing him too early. The only way that happens is if you physically break him, which is something that could happen in Joe Burrow’s case with Cincinnati’s offensive line. But I’m not even sure we got to October last year before I could confidently say that Burrow will be better in the NFL than this original Carr brother was.

87. Brock Osweiler

If Robert Pattinson was six inches taller and had no discernible talent, he would be Brock Osweiler. This is a hard one since I know that 2016 season in Houston was awful, and the playoff win against the Raiders was some Connor Cook’d up bullshit. But unlike the first 13 players here, Osweiler did serve a role in helping a team win a Super Bowl, and helped my favorite player retire as a champion again.

While I always rejected the notion that Osweiler should have continued to start over Peyton Manning for Denver that year, I do not see an injured Manning getting those pivotal wins against the Patriots and Bengals that helped the Broncos secure the No. 1 seed and homefield in the playoffs.

Still, John Elway’s Tall QB fetish likely cost the Broncos a better shot at a dynasty by drafting Osweiler over Russell Wilson in 2012. He gave rise to a Seattle team that beat the Broncos convincingly in 2013 while screwing with the future of the team in the post-Peyton years. Imagine if Wilson got to step in there once Manning retired, which could have come sooner if 2013 ended with him on top after breaking multiple records that year. But nope, the Broncos won one ring, and when Osweiler came back in 2017, he failed to win a start for the team.

But I have to say his existence in this timeline came with some personal benefits.

Part II: Some of your favorite journeymen and one-year wonders coming soon (#86-51)