Tag: Stat Oddity

NFL Stat Oddity: Week 1

~ Scott ~ 1 Comment

My 2024 NFL season predictions featured “Making Offense Great Again” (MOGA) as the central theme to this season. Things got off to a solid start on Thursday and Friday night (bad field in Brazil withstanding), but Sunday was a kick in the nuts.

Most quarterbacks did not pass for over 200 yards, and we still might have Malik Willis to (not) look forward to with Green Bay next week after Jordan Love’s MCL injury.

I’m getting a late start on this, and I may do a story on it early this week, so I don’t want to get into all the details here. But the offensive revolution might be on hold again unless we let the Saints play the Panthers every week.

So far, 9-of-15 games featured a comeback opportunity, which is very normal. But it’s not so normal to only get one game with a true fourth-quarter lead change from an offense with time left in an entire week of games. It’s not like I expect another to come from Jets-49ers tomorrow night, but we’ll see.

Overall, I enjoyed Week 1 of the 2024 NFL season. The prime-time games (mostly) delivered, which can make up for a rough Sunday afternoon.

Rams at Lions: Game of the Day

Our first overtime game of 2024 was not a classic, but it was a solid playoff rematch from last year with Matthew Stafford falling to 0-2 against his former team in Detroit.

This game had a lot of injuries as Puka Nacua didn’t play the second half, and the offensive line was banged up badly for the Rams. Not much room for Kyren Williams, who never broke a run longer than 9 yards. Cooper Kupp ended up with 14 catches on 21 targets to make up for the loss of Nacua, and it almost was enough for the night.

Jameson Williams had his breakout game for the Lions with 121 yards and a touchdown. But I’m going to say it’s not ideal when Amon-Ra St. Brown only has 3 catches for 13 yards, one of the least productive games of his career. Jared Goff was up and down, and he got away with a dropped interception in the fourth quarter.

It was a rough game, but credit to the Rams for coming back from a double-digit deficit to taking a late 20-17 lead on a Kupp touchdown. But with a chance to run out the clock the way the Lions did to them in the playoffs, the Rams failed. Goff got his second chance, and he didn’t waste it. The Lions settled for overtime with a 32-yard field goal, but that was the right call as we know Dan Campbell loves a fourth down attempt.

After the way Super Bowl 58 ended, you kind of long for the strategy and system there to return, but we’re stuck with the old modified format. Sure enough, the Lions turned into the most dominant rushing team in the world all of a sudden and ran it right down the Rams’ throat despite little success earlier in the game. The Lions had 7 carries for 60 yards on the 70-yard drive in overtime, finishing things off with a 1-yard touchdown run by David Montgomery to win it 26-20, which means they even covered the spread (Lions -4.5).

Tough loss for an undermanned Rams team that was right there again. But with Jordan Love injured in Green Bay, the Lions look to be in good shape relative to the rest of the NFC North right now.

Patriots at Bengals: Upset of the Week

I should have known better that this game was trouble when it had the biggest spread (Bengals by 8+) of Week 1 as the Bengals simply shit the bed to start the season more often than not. Blame Zac Taylor, blame Joe Burrow, but they keep doing this.

At some point, you have to acknowledge the facts. I don’t want to hear that Tee Higgins was out, or that they lost Tyler Boyd and Joe Mixon in the offseason. What happened to “watch out for Iosivas” this season? I don’t even want to hear that Ja’Marr Chase had food poisoning this weekend. Chase played and he caught all 6 targets for 62 yards.

The real question should be why not more targets? We saw what Matthew Stafford, a real gamer, did on Sunday night with an absurdly injured offensive line, missing his tight end (Tyler Higbee), and Puka Nacua left with an injury suffered in the first half. He targeted Cooper Kupp 21 times and did what he could.

If Burrow is as good as people say he is, then he needs to overcome some of these shortcomings more often. This was another poor, lifeless Week 1 performance from the offense, which had 224 yards and 13 first downs.

Now there weren’t many possessions in this game, and Tanner Hudson blew points with a fumble inside the 3-yard line, which sounds like old-school New England defense to me.

The Patriots grinded things out on the ground with Rhamondre Stevenson rushing 25 times for 120 yards. Jacoby Brissett only passe for 121 yards, but he didn’t have turnovers and he only took a single sack. It was just enough

But even when the Bengals got the ball back in a 16-10 game with 3:04 left at their own 10, that was a great setup for a heroic Burrow drive. Instead, it was a three-and-out, and despite having four clock stoppages, the defense couldn’t get the ball back. The Patriots ran out the clock.

But you have to do better than a 3-and-out that deep in that spot. Just terrible, and now we’ll see if they can work their magic against the Chiefs next week to avoid starting 0-2.

Panthers at Saints: Rout of the Week

Statistically, the Saints were one of the most dominant teams on the scoreboard late in the 2023 season, and that’s a good trait for a team to make the playoffs the following year. I’m not taking any victory lap yet after they smashed the god damn Carolina Panthers, but on a Sunday where most NFL teams didn’t look great, the Saints’ utter dominance in every facet was impressive.

Remember, the Panthers were supposed to be improved this year with a new coach (Dave Canales), new weapons, and Bryce Young no longer being a rookie. But wow, Young may be heading down the path of all-time bust if this continues.

The Saints scored 17 points before Young even completed a pass. That’s hard to do. That also made it nearly impossible for him to succeed in this game, but he never settled in and the Saints continued blowing the Panthers out until it was 47-10.

Thankfully, we’ll see the Saints play in Dallas next week, so there’s a great chance to see where this team really is. As for Carolina, yikes, this is about the worst way to start after a 2-15 season where you never took a snap with a fourth-quarter lead.

Cowboys at Browns: The Only Way to Make Deshaun Watson Worse Is to Give Him Tom Brady’s Voice

Here’s what the Cowboys-Browns game featured:

  • Dak Prescott, the highest-paid quarterback in NFL history at $60 million per season after finally getting his extension Sunday morning despite never reaching the NFC Championship Game.
  • Deshaun Watson, who made the largest $230 million theft in NFL history when he fleeced the Browns in a 2022 trade for a fully-guaranteed contract despite more than two dozens accusations of sexual misconduct.
  • Tom Brady, the highest-paid broadcaster in NFL history at $37.5 million, more than double the next closest person despite zero experience in the broadcasting booth.

Is it any surprise the game turned out to be a piece of shit?

Prescott had one of his most forgettable games in the Mike McCarthy era. After a good start, his special teams basically put up the last 19 points with a punt return touchdown and four field goal drives that covered a whopping 42 yards between them.

And he was still easily the best quarterback on the field. The only way you could have made Watson worse was if you gave him Tom Brady’s voice. But I’m not going to get into why I think Brady has the completely wrong voice for this job that he stole from a more deserving Greg Olsen.

But Watson again looked terrible, and while you can respect a good Dallas front, the sack merchant was ever present with multiple turnovers and an inability to sustain offense. Even worse, Watson’s arm just looked shot. I don’t know how Kevin Stefanski doesn’t just bench him and go with Jameis Winston, but this continues to be the worst trade in NFL history and the biggest sunk cost you’ll ever see.

Ezekiel Elliott looked youthful and strong compared to washed-up Watson. It’s a miracle the Cowboys were ever a 2.5-point underdog in this one.

Jaguars at Dolphins: The One Where Tyreek Got Arrested First

You can’t make this stuff up. Tyreek Hill went from nearly going downtown with police officers, under arrest for a verbal altercation after a traffic violation, to catching the longest touchdown reception (80 yards) of his NFL career to spark a comeback win by Miami.

The Dolphins were very sluggish, down 14-0 to the Jaguars, before Hill took off for the end zone and even recreated the handcuffing incident he had in the morning. Watching that footage play out after watching the new Netflix movie Rebel Ridge (it’s great) the night before is crazy.

This is the third article tonight I’m writing about this incident, so I’m a little tongue-tied about it. But I really thought I was looking at AI images when I opened my phone Sunday morning and saw Hill handcuffed. Only the multiple videos and tweets from Adam Schefter clued me in this was real.

But what a major disappointment for the Jaguars, who went scoreless after halftime. They had a 17-7 lead and were 13 yards away from the end zone late in the third quarter. But Travis Etienne fumbled at the 3-yard line, one of the weekend’s biggest turnovers, and that completely changed the game. A play later, it was Tyreek for 80 yards.

The big plays won it for Miami, and kicker Jason Sanders redeemed himself for an earlier miss with a 52-yard field goal at the buzzer to win 20-17. Miami never led in the game before that final snap.

Curious to see where things go from here with the team’s biggest nemesis, Buffalo, coming into town Thursday night.

Titans at Bears: The Comeback Win I Sorta Predicted for Caleb Williams’ Debut

One of my favorite picks this week was Chicago getting a clutch, comeback win in Caleb Williams’ debut to start helping out Matt Eberflus’ league-worst record in such games.

Well, it happened. It didn’t happen in any way I imagined, but it was a classic throwback to the 2006 Bears and the way they came back to beat the Cardinals on Monday Night Football with multiple return touchdowns.

The Bears were awful offensively, trailed 17-0, and only finished with 148 yards of offense. The preseason is not the regular season, and Caleb was 14-of-29 for 93 yards. On the bright side, he only took two sacks and threw no picks. Jusitn Fields probably loses this game if given the chance.

But Williams was not doing much to help the comeback effort. The Bears blocked a punt for a touchdown. They also turned a strip-sack of Will Levis into a field goal drive that netted 1 yard.

But it ended up being one of the hardest games I’ve ever had to catalogue for 4QC/GWD purposes:

  • Chicago trailed 17-10 to start the fourth quarter and had a drive going with Williams.
  • The 44-yard drive ended with a 50-yard field goal to make it 17-13.
  • Levis coughed up the ball, setting up that 1-yard drive for a field goal to make it 17-16.
  • Technically, you just had two 4QC/GWD attempts, and the offense chipped in two field goals.
  • Four plays later, Will Levis forced a pick-six, and there goes the go-ahead score for Chicago at 22-17.
  • Williams completed a 2-point conversion pass to D’Andre Swift to make it 24-17, an important 7-point cushion.

It’s clearly a team fourth-quarter comeback. It’s clearly not a game-winning drive since the pick-six is not a drive. The 2PC was important though, and that makes me wonder if I should be counting it. But I’m not going to. At the same time, I’m giving Williams the 4QC win since without the two field goals from the offense, the pick-six doesn’t win the game for Chicago.

It’s a messy situation, and it’s all the fault of Levis. Why in the hell would you force this pass up on 3rd-and-6 with the lead? Just take the sack and live another drive.

That is seriously some 2001 or 2006 Bears bullshit. Also, of course Levis couldn’t make up for it on the final drive, getting picked again.

Williams did not impress, but Levis disappointed even more as he should be further along than this. I’m really not sure about that 2023 draft class outside of C.J. Stroud.

Texans at Colts: My MVP Gets It Done in Wild Week 1 Game

C.J. Stroud is my MVP pick this year, but how about those new additions in Houston? Stefon Diggs caught both of Stroud’s touchdowns, but it was running back Joe Mixon who had the huge game with 159 yards and a touchdown on the ground. The Colts had few answers for this offense, especially in must-stop situations.

But the player I thought was the biggest wild card this year is Anthony Richardson, and he did not disappoint with his “boom-or-bust” playing label. He was only 9-of-19 passing, but he had three different completions for over 50 yards, including a 60-yard touchdown pass to Alec Pierce that was one of the longest and most impressive touchdown throws I’ve ever seen in the NFL:

He even slid before throwing it, so he didn’t fully step into it. Incredible play. Too bad he misses some of the easy ones, so if he can correct that with experience, then the Colts should have something here.

At least offensively. The defense could not stop Houston in the fourth quarter despite the offense making it a 2-point game twice. The Texans responded with touchdowns twice, including a play I loved the decision for from coach DeMeco Ryans.

The Texans were up 22-20 and faced 4th-and-2 at the 2-yard line with 4:45 left. Why kick the field goal to go up 5 points and risk losing on a touchdown in the final minute? Go for the jugular, which they did, and Diggs caught his second touchdown to make it a 2-score game again.

But even after Indy scored to again make it 29-27, the four-minute offense went to work with a couple of first downs, including a 3rd-and-11 conversion for 12 yards from Stroud to Nico Collins, a Colts killer.

It’s only one game, but again, this is why I’m big on the Texans to be a new rival to the Chiefs. If you get Stroud playing like this, he’s someone who could outduel Mahomes in a fourth quarter and keep the ball away from him in a one-score game.

Green Bay, my Super Bowl pick, almost broke my heart Friday night with the sloppy performance and Love injury. But the Texans, who were my Green Bay equivalent in the AFC to possibly derail Kansas City’s three-peat, gave me some confidence with this performance.

But let’s keep it going and get even better.

Steelers at Falcons: The Six Field Goal Mike Tomlin Special

I ended up (regrettably) watching most of this game. Basically, it was the kind of Chicago Bears win you would have thought Justin Fields could have enjoyed there. Pretty lousy offense, Fields flirting with disaster on fumbled snaps to start the game, bad third-down sacks as the coaching staff didn’t trust him, and the defense and special teams were fantastic for the Steelers.

T.J. Watt and kicker Chris Boswell basically won the game for them. We know the last Mike Tomlin playoff win was 18-16 on six field goals against the 2016 Chiefs. He kind of did it again as Boswell made six field goals and most of them were very long.

Watt was a beast again, and Kirk Cousins looked very rusty and slow in a new offense after his Achilles tear. Not a good debut at all for him, and it’s as if Arthur Smith never left. Hell, he was in the building calling multiple runs on 3rd-and-long in this game.

But this is how the Steelers win. Keep it close and hope that a fumble happens when a receiver is running in motion for Atlanta. That really did happen, and of course, Watt was the one there to pounce on the ball in a big moment.

But Cousins had his chances to be the hero as Fields – no shocker – couldn’t put the game away. But he was picked with 2:34 left and then sacked by Watt on the final snap to mercifully end this one.

The Steelers have some compensation incentives to not keep playing Fields, and I think we’ll see Russell Wilson eventually. But this kind of offense isn’t going to beat that many teams in the NFL without superhuman efforts from Watt.

He might be up to the task though, especially if the idea that linemen playing closer to the line instead of leaning back is a point of emphasis to cut down on those illegal formations.

However, I’m still puzzled as to why they traded Diontae Johnson. This passing game is George Pickens or bust right now.

Cardinals at Bills: The Almost Upset of the Week

I said in my Week 1 predictions that I could easily see Arizona winning this as an upset and referendum on Buffalo getting rid of Stefon Diggs. But even when the Cardinals went up 10, I wasn’t that worried as I noticed the Cardinals had the ball for 13 of the first 15 minutes. Buffalo just needed the ball.

Josh Allen was facing a no-name defense, so he didn’t need big-name receivers. He had plenty enough around him, but I was surprised that Dalton Kincaid only had an 11-yard catch. But I was confident in rookie Keon Coleman (51 yards led team in receiving) having an impressive debut against this secondary to alleviate some concerns after the team let the Chiefs get Xavier Worthy at No. 28. That could still be a huge regret, but Coleman was always going to produce this week.

By game’s end, Buffalo even pulled ahead in time of possession, so no big deal. But the Cardinals still made this interesting thanks to a 96-yard kickoff return touchdown in the fourth quarter. I’m not a big fan of the dynamic kickoff so far, but it is producing better field position and already a touchdown like that.

But in a 31-28 game, the Bills nearly botched this badly. They had a chance to put the game away but Allen was stuffed on a 3rd-and-2 run. Instead of going for the 4th-and-3 at the Arizona 21 at the 2-minute warning, they kicked the short field goal and settled for a 34-28 lead with Arizona having all three timeouts to drive for the winning touchdown.

To make it worse, the Bills’ kickoff went out of bounds, so Murray only needed 60 yards. He’s done far harder before, including against Buffalo in 2020 (“Hail Murray”). When you have Allen, you should be going for that fourth down. The 6-point lead is one of the worst places to be. At least if it was still a 31-28 game, you can count on Arizona to probably kick a field goal instead of go for a fourth down.

But the Cardinals had their chances, and it’s my understanding rookie wideout Marvin Harrison Jr. was left wide open on the drive for a potential touchdown, but Kyler didn’t see it or didn’t think to throw to him. The drive ended with Murray throwing incomplete on 4th-and-7 at the Buffalo 29 with 26 seconds left.

Crisis adverted – barely. But the Bills will need to clean some things up in Miami this week, and Allen reportedly has a left hand injury that he suffered on one of his touchdown runs. Let that sink in.

Vikings at Giants: Wrong Improbable New York QB Breakout Year

I expected both of these teams to be terrible this year, and I still believe that’s highly possible. But one of my worst picks this week was the Giants as the upset special at home. I got a little too focused on what happened in 2022, ignoring 2023, and the fact that Daniel Jones is just not the answer. At least with Darnold, we haven’t seen him fail as many times, and he has some solid talent around him in a pass-friendly offense.

Darnold started this game on fire, then the team had little reason to score more as Jones wasn’t getting the job done. But this pick-6, while a very athletic play by the defender, is a good example of why this season needs to be Jones’ last in New York.

And what the hell were those jerseys? Alas, Andrew Van Ginkel is apparently the master of the fast interception.

Raiders at Chargers: Can Jim Harbaugh Go 5-1 in the AFC West?

Coach Jim Harbaugh made his NFL return with a win, 22-10 over the Raiders. He came here to make Justin Herbert’s life easier, and so far, it worked. The Chargers had just 11 first downs, the fewest in the Herbert era. They gave Herbert 170 rushing yards while he only threw for 144, another rarity.

The passing game is a work in progress with these young receivers, but how about J.K. Dobbins rushing for 135 yards in his team debut? He even ripped off a 61-yard play. Great to see after injuries robbed him in Baltimore from more success.

But mission successful in not blowing a two-score lead in the fourth quarter. However, the Chargers got some help from new Raiders coach Antonio Pierce, a hire I was not supportive for. In his first game without the interim tag, he made a big mistake in a 16-10 game with 7:15 left. The Raiders faced a 4th-and-1 at the Los Angeles 43 and decided to punt.

I can understand the old-school philosophy there as that’s what you used to do in those situations. But with under half a quarter left, you’re looking at maybe one more possession before you start relying on all your timeouts. You also have to remember that converting 4th-and-1 is in your favor (> 50%). I think punting was a big mistake, and you have to think it won’t be the last time we see this from Pierce, the big flaw in hiring a defensive-minded coach who only sees the old ways of the game he played.

To make it worse, the defense he relies on gave up a 92-yard touchdown drive thanks to the big Dobbins run. Gardner Minshew was picked to end it, but he’s probably still their best choice for a quarterback for the rest of the year despite only 10 points in Los Angeles.

But with the way the Raiders and Broncos look, who says Harbaugh can’t steal a game against the Chiefs and possibly go 5-1 in the division to fuel a playoff berth as a wild card? That was one of my main thoughts on the Chargers all along, but after Week 1, I feel even better about it.

Broncos at Seahawks: Sean Payton on His Week 1 Shit Again

The Seahawks are going to have some elite defensive stats in this one, the debut and first win for coach Mike Macdonald. But for the second year in a row, Sean Payton went into a Week 1 and watched his quarterback put on a dink-and-dunk performance that was literally for the record books.

Fewest Passing Yards by Number of Completions in NFL history (1950-2024)

After Russell Wilson had a record-low 177 passing yards on 27 completions against the Raiders last year, rookie Bo Nix did him one better and had just 138 yards on 26 completions. That’s the fewest passing yards in a game with more than 25 completions in NFL history.

This was rough, and Nix could have easily had more than the two picks he threw as Seattle dropped several. But it’s not like he had any real help out there other than his defense coming up with a pair of safeties, something you almost never see. But Nix ended up leading the Broncos with 35 rushing yards, including a late touchdown that made it mildly interesting at 26-20.

Geno Smith had some mistakes, but he also had a 34-yard touchdown run that he couldn’t possibly have done last year when he was playing hurt. When it came to icing the game with a late third-down pass to deny Nix getting a shot at a game-winning drive, Smith found Tyler Lockett for 9 yards to end things.

Enough to be encouraged about for Seattle, but we really need to see this defense play a quarterback who knows what they’re doing. Granted, there may not be a ton of those in the league right now. But even Jacoby Brissett will be a step up in competition in New England next week.

Started to get a sense of how Nix completed over 77% of his passes at Oregon last year to set an NCAA single-season record. He’ll take literally any short completion you will give him no matter how fruitless the gain is. But you can’t end his career after one game. He’s just a rookie, albeit an older one.

Commanders at Buccaneers: It’s Probably Not 2012 in Washington Again

I guess the hope all along with Washington repeating its 2012 season success with Robert Griffin III would be a surprisingly good season from Jayden Daniels. While he did make me very happy in his debut with a 2-touchdown performance on the ground (+2200 odds), it wasn’t the kind of passing performance you wanted to see. Terry McLaurin (17 yards) barely did a thing. More than half of Daniels’ 184 passing yards went to running backs.

But he ran the ball 16 times for 88 yards and will be viable at the goal line. He just better tighten that helmet as it came loose a couple of times and nearly cost him that second touchdown. I’d be quite bitter right now if that happened.

But Dan Quinn’s defense was no real improvement on last year when they were the worst in the league under Ron Rivera and Jack Del Rio. Baker Mayfield picked them apart with 24-of-30 for 289 yards and 4 touchdowns. Mike Evans caught two scores and still has WR1 skills.

Tampa had one of the most thorough and complete performances of any team this week. Not that it should be that surprising against a rebuilt Washington team with a long way to go. But it’s a very good start with Detroit up next.

Next week: Are we peaking early with Bills-Dolphins on Thursday night? Saints-Cowboys could be interesting, or it could be a blowout. Either way, we get to test the Saints right away against a non-Carolina opponent, so that’s great. Bengals-Chiefs loses some luster with the New England upset, but it’d be typical NFL for Cincinnati to win that one to avoid an 0-2 start. That Chicago offense isn’t ready for prime time, so good luck in Houston. Ditto with Kirk Cousins going to Philly on his least favorite day of the week.

NFL Stat Oddity: Week 1

~ Scott ~ 20 Comments

In framing the 2023 NFL season as the year of uncertainty, I at least thought there would be more points in Week 1. Only a fantastic, back-and-forth game between the Chargers and Dolphins saw both teams score more than 21 points this week. If the Jets-Bills game on Monday night does not do that, then it will be the first time since 2008 that Week 1 had just one game where both teams surpassed 21 points.

Forget points. What about seeing more teams with 200 net passing yards? Many quarterbacks failed to pass for 150 yards this week, making it feel like a trip back several decades on Sunday. The sacks in many games contributed heavily to the low yardage.

There were 18 teams that failed to hit 200 net passing yards in Week 1 with one game to go. That’s almost half the total from the last 4 seasons combined for Week 1 (35). It is the most since 19 teams did it in 2008.

There were 11 quarterbacks with a QBR under 30.0, which is more than the last two seasons combined (10) in Week 1.

These performances suddenly make Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs (minus Travis Kelce) look not so bad in Thursday night’s loss against Detroit. Hell, the Bengals just lost 24-3 in Cleveland. If the Bills lose on Monday night, that would be 0-3 for the top teams in the conference.

While the AFC has the better quarterbacks and deeper pool of contenders, the NFC elite just may be the three best overall teams in the NFL. They were flexing early on Sunday too:

  • The 49ers led 20-0 in Pittsburgh before winning 30-7
  • The Eagles led 16-0 in New England before hanging on 25-20
  • The Cowboys routed the Giants 40-0 in New York

That was a combined 76-0 start for those teams before they allowed any points. We’ll see how the Jets and Bills look Monday night, but this was a great week for the NFC’s best teams and a lot of question marks for the many AFC contenders.

Maybe these teams need to start going back to playing more starters in the preseason games. Things were looking rather sloppy in a lot of these games. Eagles coach Nick Sirianni already said he’ll reevaluate their preseason approach next year.

Glad the NFL is back but this was not that memorable of an opening weekend. I predicted Chargers-Dolphins would be Sunday’s top game, so hopefully my prediction for Jets-Bills being an instant classic works out too. In all, 9 games this week had a comeback opportunity, which is pretty normal. However, not a single team came back from a double-digit deficit to win, which happened at least once every week last regular season when 50 teams did so (NFL record).

Dolphins at Chargers: Game of the Week

After writing 6,750 words for a week I just said wasn’t that memorable, I saved the best game for last, and yet I don’t have that much to say about it. What can you say about a shootout with so many lead changes where neither team ever led by more than 7 points? It’s great.

After arguably the worst passing game of his career against the Chargers last year, Tua Tagovailoa had what I think is the best passing game in his NFL career on Sunday. He passed for 466 yards and 3 touchdowns, and he made some really stellar throws in big spots.

Of course, Tyreek Hill was also spectacular with 215 yards and 2 touchdowns, including the game winner on a perfect throw with 1:45 left. That put the Dolphins up 36-34 after the extra point failed, which should have been a huge deal, but new coordinator Vic Fangio’s defense made sure it wasn’t.

As for the Chargers, it was an odd game offensively that also reversed the script from last year’s 23-17 win over Miami when Justin Herbert had a career-high 39 completions. This time, Herbert only attempted 33 passes while the Chargers rushed for 234 yards, only the third time in the Herbert era they have rushed for 200 yards.

The first game with Kellen Moore as offensive coordinator produced great rushing results, which is exciting to think about the potential from when this team is not playing a passing game that can be as lethal as speedy Miami.

But for all the good things the Chargers did, there were some Chargering moments that caught up with them.

  • After tying the game with 9 seconds left in the first half, the Chargers let Miami get off two big passes, and J.C. Jackson was penalized 30 yards for defensive pass interference on the second one, leading to a 41-yard field goal with no time left as Miami took a 20-17 lead into the locker room.
  • Even when Jackson tried to redeem himself with his first interception in a Chargers uniform in the third quarter, he returned it from 5 yards deep in the end zone, sticking his offense at their own 4 instead of a touchback. That led to a three-and-out (nearly a safety on a Herbert sack) and set up a 35-yard field for Miami’s offense, which instantly struck with a Hill touchdown after he burned Jackson (eventful day).
  • Down 36-34 with 1:45 left, the game-winning drive attempt quickly went to waste after Herbert was penalized for intentional grounding on what looked like a busted play. He was then sacked to bring up 3rd-and-29, got a chunk, then took a game-ending sack on 4th-and-12 after Fangio sent heat.

Game over. The Chargers join the 1963 Vikings (against Johnny Unitas’ Colts) as the only teams in NFL history to score at least 34 points, rush for 200 yards, and have zero turnovers in a home loss. Teams are now 165-2 when they do those things in a game.

The Chargers technically blew another one, but Miami was worthy of winning this game. Tua and Hill were as good as ever. In a sea of bad games, this was a spectacle you had to see.

49ers at Steelers: The Preseason Is a Lie, Part I

While I did like the Steelers as an upset pick, there was a thought in my mind all week that their preseason results are going to blow up spectacularly in their face this September. Watch them go from scoring 5 touchdowns on 5 possessions with the starting offense in August to being one of September’s lowest-scoring teams.

Sure enough, the Steelers played awful football and only managed a touchdown drive before halftime in a 30-7 loss, the biggest margin of defeat at home in Mike Tomlin’s career.

It took the Steelers six possessions before they could even get their initial first down. By then, they were already down 20-0. Brock Purdy looked outstanding and had the week’s highest QBR (91.3). His chemistry with Brandon Aiyuk looked stronger than anything the Steelers had going with Kenny Pickett and his receivers.

This game also was a great reminder why no defensive player should ever seriously be in MVP consideration. T.J. Watt was an absolute beast with 3 sacks and 2 forced fumbles, nearly stealing a ball from Purdy in the first half. But his contributions aside, the Steelers were crushed on defense with Christian McCaffrey breaking a 65-yard touchdown run behind some key blocks just 2 plays into the third quarter. The Steelers never put up a real fight after that knockout punch.

Pickett was sacked 5 times and threw just 1 touchdown on 46 attempts as that continues to be a struggle for him. Watching Purdy make a cut on a 3rd-and-12 scramble to convert for a first down had me chuckling that this guy could go last in the draft and the other guy was the first quarterback off the board. It was a total mismatch from the first snap.

So, the burning question: Are the 49ers this good or are the Steelers this bad? Time will tell, but this should be a wake-up call for the Steelers at how far they have to go to get back to being Super Bowl contenders. Last year, the Steelers were annihilated 38-3 by Buffalo and 35-13 by Philadelphia, two Super Bowl contenders like the 49ers look to be again. Otherwise, the Steelers were in all other games last year. But when they face a legitimately elite team, they really don’t stand a chance yet.

The AFC North race can turn on its head next week when the Ravens face the Bengals and the Steelers host the Browns, who held Cincinnati to 3 points. These teams could do a 180 in those division games, but if the Steelers can’t score against Cleveland either, then the “Fire Matt Canada” chants will get louder and louder.

But on Sunday, the Steelers had far more issues than just their offensive coordinator. I wouldn’t push the panic button on the streak of non-losing seasons coming to an end, but the preseason is a lie, and we should really stop paying attention to it.

Eagles at Patriots: Good Enough to Lose Close

Similar to the Cowboys-Giants game later Sunday night, it looked like the Patriots were going to get run out of their building because they couldn’t stop turning the ball over in the rain. Mac Jones was off on a pass that was deflected and returned 70 yards for a touchdown. Then Ezekiel Elliott christened his New England debut with a fumble on the next play, giving the Eagles a short field and another touchdown for a quick 16-0 lead.

Didn’t it used to be the Patriots who took over games like this? But the weather improved, and so did Jones’ accuracy. He threw some of his better passes of his career in this game, and the Patriots were back in it, down 16-14 at halftime.

It was a strange game for the Eagles. It took a long time for Jalen Hurts to break 100 passing yards (finished with 170). The running game was nowhere near as dominant as it usually is in the first game without Miles Sanders. Dallas Goedert did not have a catch.

The Patriots mostly outplayed the Eagles (382-251 in yards, 24-17 in first downs), but those pesky turnovers that have hurt them in so many games like this since 2020 were decisive again.

Still, the Patriots continued to hang around even after the Eagles led 25-14 with 5:33 left. Jones threw another touchdown to Kendrick Bourne, but a crucial 2-point conversion run by Jones was wiped out for a holding penalty. The end of this game looks much different if it was 25-22 instead of 25-20, because the Eagles were not able to close things out. Hurts immediately fumbled on the next play, which sounds like the New England we used to know. But the Patriots went four-and-out after a sack blew up the drive.

The Eagles again failed to end it after Hurts was incomplete on a 4th-and-2 pass at the New England 44 with 1:57 left. That set the stage for Jones, who was doing well until rookie Jalen Carter recorded his first NFL sack. A failed completion set up a tough 4th-and-11 at the Philadelphia 20. Jones threw a solid pass to the sideline to sixth-round rookie Kayshon Boutte. The initial TV angle made it look like a conversion, but the instant replay showed he clearly did not get both feet down. I’m not sure how the sideline judge blew that one, but replay got it correct, and the game was over. Another one-score loss for Belichick against a team that is likely still a top contender.

Jones is 1-9 (.100) at 4QC/GWD opportunities, the worst record among active starters (min. 10 games). This was one of his better attempts, but the end result was still another loss. For the coach who could seemingly do no wrong in games like this – this is Belichick’s 100th career loss in a game with a game-winning drive opportunity – the Patriots are only good enough now to lose close games against teams like this.

Cowboys at Giants: The Walking Dead

When the Giants lose, they at least leave no doubt who the inferior team was. If you thought the 38-7 playoff loss to Philadelphia was bad, the Giants basically knocked themselves out with a 16-0 first quarter in the rain against Dallas on Sunday night.

It was so bad I took a power nap in the second quarter and started watching the Daryl Dixon spin-off series for The Walking Dead universe at halftime. The Giants were fine for about 5 minutes, then they were hit with a false start, a fumbled snap, and a blocked field goal that was returned for a touchdown.

Later, Daniel Jones tried a short pass to Saquon Barkley on a 3rd-and-19, and he was popped, releasing the ball and that too was returned for a pick-six. This meant light work for the Dallas offense as Dak Prescott, who is 11-0 against the Giants since 2017, only threw for 143 yards on 24 passes. Jones ended up taking 7 sacks as the Cowboys looked incredible on defense. The Giants had 5 fumbles in the rain but were fortunate to only lose 1. The Cowboys protected the ball much better.

I think we already knew from last year that there was a gulf between these teams with the Cowboys and Eagles outscoring the Giants 78-7 over the last 8 quarters of meaningful action. But this was still a shockingly one-sided performance. The Giants are just the 12th team in the Super Bowl era (1966-present) to lose by 40 points in Week 1. They are the 5th team to lose by a shutout of at least 40 points.

Dallas is my NFC Super Bowl team, so I’m cool with that after one game. But the Giants unfortunately will be in prime time in 3 more games by Week 6, including trips to the 49ers and Bills.

I guess I’ll just have to find more TV shows to watch at halftime.

Bengals at Browns: $500 Million for These Quarterbacks?

You have to love the battle of Ohio this decade:

  • Since 2020, Browns coach Kevin Stefanski is now 6-1 against Bengals coach Zac Taylor, including a 5-1 record in games against Joe Burrow, who just signed the biggest contract in NFL history at $55 million per season ($275M total).
  • Stefanski always gets big quarterback production against the Bengals except for the last two games when Deshaun Watson was his starter, who is supposed to be his best quarterback after the Browns gave him a record deal worth $230M fully guaranteed.
  • On Sunday, these quarterbacks played in a game with 29 combined drives and just one drive gained more than 45 yards.

Burrow and the Bengals had a rough Week 1 loss against the Steelers last year too when he turned it over 5 times and took 7 sacks. But at least the Bengals eventually moved the ball in that one and would have won the game if not for an emergency long snapper situation botching two game-winning kicks from short distance.

This was just brutal as Burrow, who had a calf strain in preseason, finished 14-of-31 for 82 yards. He was sacked twice – Myles Garrett took him down on a 4th-and-4 in the fourth quarter – and the Bengals were 2-for-15 on third down. Cincinnati saw enough of Burrow and benched him with 5:15 left while still keeping Ja’Marr Chase and Joe Mixon in the game with the starters. Mixon’s 22-yard run in the second quarter was the only Cincinnati play that gained more than 12 yards. Burrow was 0-for-8 on passes to Tee Higgins.

Was the calf that bad, should Burrow have sat out and waited to face Baltimore next week, or does Cleveland just own him? Time will tell what exactly happened here, but this was a shockingly awful performance.

Burrow is just the 8th quarterback to throw more than 30 passes and gain no more than 82 yards:

  • Paul Christman (1945 Cardinals at Lions): 7/36 for 80 yards
  • Jack Concannon (1969 Bears vs. Lions): 12/35 for 79 yards
  • Dieter Brock (1985 Rams at Bears, playoff game): 10/31 for 66 yards
  • Stan Gelbaugh (1992 Seahawks vs. Eagles): 9/31 for 66 yards
  • Kordell Stewart (1998 Steelers at Dolphins): 11/35 for 82 yards
  • Chris Weinke (2001 Panthers vs. Jets): 12/34 for 76 yards
  • Ryan Lindley (2012 Cardinals at Jets): 10/31 for 72 yards

Rough company. The Browns did not fare great through the air themselves, but anything looked better than Cincinnati’s effort. The Browns rushed for 206 yards with Watson (45 yards and a score) doing some of his best work with his legs.

We’ll see how the Bengals respond to this, because things are not getting any easier with Baltimore coming to town for a big showdown.

Buccaneers at Vikings: Close-Game Regression Begins

And so, it begins. After going 11-0 in close games and 8-0 at 4QC/GWD opportunities in the 2022 regular season, things were going to catch up with Kevin O’Connell and the Vikings this year. It only took one game against Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers, but they finally lost a close game in the regular season too under O’Connell.

Justin Jefferson was still great with 150 yards, and rookie teammate Jordan Addison had a 39-yard touchdown to make a name for himself early. But Alexander Mattison did not fare well in replacing Dalvin Cook as he was held to 44 yards on 14 touches. The offensive line had a rough start with Cousins losing a fumble on an aborted snap and strip-sack. Cousins also had a big red-zone pick before halftime in a 10-10 game, a sour note on a half where he threw for 273 yards.

As the Vikings showed us in 2022, the margins between winning and losing can be razor thin in the NFL. Last year, things usually went right for the Vikings in tight games. This time, they were offside on a field goal that led to a first down and a touchdown pass from Baker to take a 17-10 lead.

While the Vikings tied things up to put themselves in line for another 4QC, the offense went three-and-out on its last two drives. The last one was short-circuited quickly by a 4-yard loss on a completion to tight end T.J. Hockenson, who had 8 catches for only 35 yards.

Props to the Buccaneers for being aggressive. They went for a 4th-and-1 at their own 32 in a tied game, and Baker converted on a sneak. The drive eventually stalled, but Chase McLaughlin made a clutch 57-yard field goal to take a 20-17 lead with 5:10 left.

The Buccaneers scored 20 points on the road one time all last year, and that included a pick-six in New Orleans. In one start with Baker replacing Tom Brady, they did it Sunday in Minnesota. But it was Baker’s legs again finishing the game in the 4-minute offense after he scrambled for a first down on a 3rd-and-3. Three plays later, Chris Godwin made a nice catch to convert 3rd-and-10 and ice the win.

I’m not sure the Buccaneers can win many more games with this offensive output, but this remains the formula for the team. Just keep it close into the fourth quarter. This won’t be the last time the 2023 Vikings drop one of these games they would have won last year.

Raiders at Broncos: Sean Payton Matches Nathaniel Hackett’s Debut in Score But Not Hilarity

No teams played more close games (15 each) or blew more fourth-quarter leads last year than the Raiders (6) and Broncos (5). Sure enough, they were in another tight game as neither team led by more than 7 points.

But just like Nathaniel Hackett a year ago, Sean Payton lost his opener with Russell Wilson at quarterback by a 17-16 final. At least this time the offense was getting the plays in on time at the goal line, and they did not try to win the game on a 64-yard field goal.

However, the results and some execution were still underwhelming. If you can name the most famous call of Payton’s career in New Orleans, you would pick the surprise onside kick in Super Bowl 44. To make an immediate impression on the Denver crowd, the Broncos started the season with a surprise onside. It would have worked if not for an illegal touch penalty, so the Raiders had a short field to score a touchdown to start the game.

The reason this 17-16 score is way different from last year’s loss in Seattle is that this was a very offensive game with a combined 13 possessions between the two teams. One of those was a kneeldown by the Raiders with 12 seconds left to get to halftime, so it was really 6 possessions per team for a total of 12 drives, a massive outlier. In fact, it might be the fewest possessions in a game in NFL history. The one I used to always point to for that was 2006 Colts at Texans, but that had 13 total possessions that weren’t kneeldowns. Raiders at Browns in 2020 also had 13 possessions.

Mistakes get magnified in a game like this with so few possessions. The only two complete drives in the third quarter saw the Broncos miss a 55-yard field goal and Jimmy Garoppolo made his only big mistake with a red-zone pick as Denver led 13-10.

But the Broncos settled for another field goal to lead 16-10, and Garoppolo did his thing on a 75-yard touchdown drive to take the lead with 6:34 left. Jakobi Meyers caught his second score on the day.

Wilson was not terrible with the 6 drives he had, but usually when he completes 27-of-34 passes, you expect more than 177 yards. Fittingly, a failed completion ended up being the offense’s last snap as an 8-yard gain on 3rd-and-11 was not enough to convert. Denver punted and the Raiders had 5:08 to burn, hanging onto a 17-16 lead.

The Raiders blew these games time after time last year, but this could be an area where Josh McDaniels trusts Garoppolo more than he did Derek Carr. On a big 3rd-and-8, Garoppolo went back to the hot man in Meyers, and he was tackled short on a nasty hit that would have brought up 4th-and-1 at midfield.

I have to say I understood where the defender (Kareem Jackson) was coming from there. If he doesn’t hit Meyers hard, the Raiders convert, and the game is all but over. It had to be a significant hit to stop his force short, and it was just an unfortunate collision that left Meyers down for some time. But he was able to get up and should be okay, thankfully. I’m just not sure what the defender can do better in that split second as he was just trying to save the game, not injure anyone.

The penalty for the hit gave the Raiders a first down. On a 3rd-and-7, Garoppolo showed some good patience and scrambled for 8 yards to ice the game and hand Payton a 17-16 loss in his first game with Denver, possibly a game with the fewest possessions in NFL history.

The Broncos tie the Raiders for the most blown fourth-quarter leads since 2022 with 6 a piece. We’ll see how things go with Wilson going forward, but the lack of possessions did produce a misleading final score. Still, it was a case of Denver coming up short again with this quarterback (no pun intended).

Packers at Bears: The Old Familiar Sting

Silly me. I thought early in the week that the Bears and Packers would play a fun, exciting game where both young quarterbacks played well, signifying a new beginning after decades of the Packers walking over this team with Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers. Then once I saw that Christian “String Cheese Ligaments” Watson was out and Romeo Doubs was questionable, I changed my pick to the Bears, the team I spent the most time researching why they likely won’t have a good year as some thought.

Sure enough, the Packers rolled them 38-20 in Chicago. Those big YAC plays the Bears had in the preseason that I said wouldn’t translate to the real games, the Packers had a few of them in this game as Aaron Jones went off for 86 receiving yards on 2 catches. He finished with 127 yards from scrimmage and 2 touchdowns to lead the Packers.

Jordan Love was solid in his first Week 1 start, but I would say his stat line (15-of-27 for 245 yards, 3 TD) was one of the more misleading ones in Week 1 because of the YAC. But he did a good job.

Justin Fields technically had one of his better passing lines (24-of-37 for 216 yards), but he still took 4 sacks, and he threw a pick-six that was an awful throw turned into a touchdown by an incredible effort from Quay Walker on defense. The Bears were down 24-6 with a minute to go in the third quarter before they finally found the end zone, so it was not a good game for this unit again.

It was bad for both sides of the ball, which was my whole issue with Chicago. How does a team that ranked dead last in passing and defense get so much better without making a change at quarterback, head coach, or either coordinator? Oh, Fields was 2-of-2 for 25 yards to D.J. Moore. The question is why not more targets? Moore had as many targets as Chase Claypool, who finished without a catch.

Will be interesting to see where these teams go from here, but Sunday was that old familiar sting of the Packers beating the Bears and looking better off at quarterback in the process.

Jaguars at Colts: Encouraging Signs from Both Teams

For the first time in 12 meetings, the home team did not win in Jaguars vs. Colts. But division games can be unpredictable, especially in Week 1. My research early in the week on this game showed that since 2009, Week 1 road favorites in division games were 5-22 ATS and 9-16-2 SU – truly abysmal records.

But I still went with the Jaguars, and frankly, the Colts should have covered. It was not the kind of performance I would say is repeatable for the Colts, because they scored a ridiculous fumble touchdown after many players gave up on the play thinking it was an incomplete pass, and tall receiver Michael Pittman Jr. scored a 39-yard touchdown on a WR screen. Not the kind of play you’d expect from him.

But Anthony Richardson, the “raw” prospect in the draft behind more polished, accomplished passers Bryce Young and C.J. Stroud, had the best debut among the three rookie quarterbacks on Sunday. Richardson was 24-of-37 for 223 yards and that screen touchdown. He did take 4 sacks but only lost 8 yards on them. He also rushed for 40 yards and a touchdown, and he probably would have ran for a second to cover the spread late in the game if he didn’t pull up injured. It will hopefully be nothing serious.

For the Jaguars, they had some shaky moments, but Trevor Lawrence was able to lead the game-winning drive after falling behind 21-17. Calvin Ridley lived up to the hype in his team debut, catching 8 passes for 101 yards and a touchdown. But the teams were a combined 5-for-24 on 3rd down, keeping it a close game for most of the way.

Richardson threw his only pick right after the Colts fell behind in the fourth quarter, which is the kind of rookie mistake you expect. Without Jonathan Taylor, the Colts had no running game besides their rookie quarterback. Deon Jackson turned in an epic trash performance with 13 carries for 14 yards and a pair of lost fumbles. Even his 5 catches only produced 14 yards.

If they can work something out with Taylor and get Jelani Woods healthy at tight end, Richardson will have a more formidable offense around him. But I think after the season the Colts had with Jeff Saturday, looking semi-competent against the division favorite was a respectable job by coach Shane Steichen.

Let’s see how these Jaguars fare when they get a chance to drop the Chiefs to 0-2 next week.

Texans at Ravens: Pour One Out for J.K.

Not sure how much you can really say about Baltimore’s 25-9 workmanlike win over Houston. The defense only forced rookie C.J. Stroud into one turnover, but they also did not let him find the end zone. In his debut in Todd Monken’s new offense, Lamar Jackson did not have an MVP-caliber start to his season with 4 sacks and no touchdown passes or runs, but the connection to rookie Zay Flowers was already looking good (9-of-10 for 78 yards).

The Ravens avoided a close finish with a rebuilding Houston team, but injuries continue to be a problem. They already played this game without corner Marlon Humphrey and tight end Mark Andrews, and they lost top running back J.K. Dobbins to a torn Achilles. It is a brutal blow to a young back who already has a broken fibula (college) and torn ACL (2021) in his past. The Ravens also may have lost safety Marcus Williams to a torn pec (results pending).

This team, my Super Bowl pick, just needs to stay healthy because there is a path for them in this AFC. They will be in Cincinnati next Sunday in a big one with a chance to drop the Bengals to 0-2.

Rams at Seahawks: The Other Embarrassing NFC Wild Card Team Loss on Sunday

Just to recap, earlier this summer I was all in on picking the Rams and Seahawks to swap places in the NFC West this year. The Seahawks had to come back in the fourth quarter twice to sweep the Rams last year, Geno Smith is usually bad at comebacks, and the Rams did not have their 3 best players in either game. It was that close to both teams finishing 7-10.

But the Seahawks won those games, made the playoffs as the No. 7 seed, and I still wasn’t feeling them this year and predicted a losing record. But the Rams’ roster shocked me when I realized how many people they were missing as it really is a team where Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp play catch while Aaron Donald lines up with 10 NPCs. Then Kupp landed on IR and I couldn’t even name the receiver Stafford ended up dominating with in one of the more surprising final scores this weekend.

I really thought this game was either Seahawks win by 17 or Rams win a close one this time. But the second half reversal was stunning as the Rams outscored Seattle 23-0 after halftime. It wasn’t a dominant ground game either as the backs finished with 37 carries for 81 yards (3 short touchdowns too).

Stafford looked healthy and vintage with 334 yards passing, including 119 yards each to two receivers you wouldn’t count on to do that (Puka Nacua and Tutu Atwell). I never even heard of Nacua, a 5th-round rookie, until Sunday.

Almost as importantly, Stafford was never sacked. That was a huge problem for the Rams last year when they were dealing with elite fronts in bad losses to the Bills, 49ers, and Cowboys. But against the Seahawks, Stafford was clean and dealing. Meanwhile, Geno passed for 112 yards for the entire game, continuing the late-season slump from 2022.

Sean McVay has gotten the best of Pete Carroll for years now, but without a healthy Stafford last year, he couldn’t finish the job in those losses. I’m not sure the Rams can sustain this when they play non-division games, but it was an impressive road win to start the season when many felt this team was heading to a race with Arizona for the bottom of the league.

But Seattle may have its own share of issues to deal with this season.

Panthers at Falcons: Bijan Robinson’s OROY Campaign Starts Well

The top quarterback (Bryce Young) and top running back (Bijan Robinson) in this year’s draft met as rivals for the first time. Not surprisingly, the one playing the easier position had the better day in a 24-10 win as Robinson’s first touchdown saw him break 3 tackles. It was not a play many backs in this league would make, so again, I concede the Falcons for being one of the only teams in a league who could justify drafting him at No. 8. At least we know they’ll use him.

But were they already using him too much? Robinson had 13 touches on the team’s first 28 plays. He actually finished with fewer touches than Tyler Allgeier (18 to 16), who scored a pair of touchdowns and led the team with 75 rushing yards. But wide receiver Drake London had no catches on 1 target and tight end Kyle Pitts only had a couple of catches for 44 yards. Desmond Ridder was 15-of-18 passing but for only 115 yards. They seem to be hiding him just as much as they did Marcus Mariota last year.

We’ll give the young offense time to grow, but I think the reason you end up in a 10-10 game going into the fourth quarter with Carolina is the lack of passing and the points that come in the passing game. The Falcons were also 2-of-10 on third downs. But a 21-yard run by Bijan, by far his best running play, set up Allgeier for the game-winning touchdown to break a tie with 14:12 left.

The Panthers have now lost 51 straight games when trailing in the fourth quarter, including an 0-30 record at 4QC opportunities (down 1-8 points with the ball).

Young did not have a good debut, finishing 20-of-38 for 146 yards, 1 TD, 2 INT. Safety Jessie Bates had a strong debut for Atlanta in making both picks. Young said after the game he needs to see the depth of the safety better, and hopefully that’s not an inference to his height being a factor in not seeing that. But he definitely had a tough job without DJ Chark available, and no passing offense in 2023 should be trying to go through tight end Hayden Hurst, who had a team-high 7 catches and caught Young’s first NFL touchdown pass.

A 16-yard scramble in the third quarter was Young’s longest play of the day. There should be better days ahead, but for now, this was the result Atlanta wanted. Bijan looking good and the defense taking advantage of a limited, inexperienced offense.

This is how they win in the NFC South this year.

Titans at Saints: Derek Carr Has a Defense, Take 1

This game and Broncos-Raiders were the easiest calls for games that were going to be decided by 1-8 points this week. But the expected low-scoring battle was even lower with the teams trading field goals.

Derek Carr made his Saints debut, and this really is the ideal setup for him. A soft division where he can be the best quarterback, solid weapons, a real defense for a change, and a shockingly easy schedule. Keep the games close and he can pull out several close wins to get this team a home playoff game in January.

The first test passed, but he did have some bad moments like a pick before halftime in scoring range, which maybe was karma for getting away with what looked like a fumble return touchdown on an earlier field goal drive.

But Ryan Tannehill was not doing himself many favors in keeping the calls for rookie Will Levis quiet. Not only did he toss 3 interceptions, but he missed some big plays down the field too.

Despite trailing 16-9 going into the fourth quarter, the Titans kept settling for field goals. You can definitely question Mike Vrabel on the last one as he went for a 29-yard field goal on a 4th-and-6 at the 11 with three timeouts left. With the offense struggling to move the ball, why not just take that chance for a 6-yard gain when you’re already deep in the red zone? Maybe you convert and go on to take the lead with a touchdown. If you fail, you still have the 4 clock stoppages to get the ball back, and even with the field goal, you still need to force a 3-and-out (or turnover) to get the ball back in a 16-15 game.

Vrabel is usually aggressive, but after going a league-worse 0-6 in 4QC/GWD attempts last year, maybe he is just getting conservative. All I know is the Titans remain a defense that is great at stopping the run and forces you to throw a lot against them. The Saints took advantage on a 3rd-and-6 when Carr had Rashid Shaheed, an underrated and underutilized weapon last year, running wide open for a big 41-yard gain. The throw and catch both could have been a little better as Shaheed’s momentum carried him out of bounds to stop the clock, and he almost didn’t control it with two feet in. But big play there.

On a 3rd-and-4 to ice it, the Saints broke one of their only good runs of the day, but Jamaal Williams had the ball knocked out after he was past the sticks. Fortunately, the bounce went the Saints’ way, and they were able to kneel out the clock.

We’ll need to see some more points on the board from this offense, but if Michael Thomas can stay healthy with Chris Olave, they seem to have a trio here now with Shaheed finishing with 89 yards and a touchdown.

Carr was 3-48 with the Raiders when he failed to score at least 17 points, so this 16-15 win is unfamiliar territory for him. We’ll see how often they do things like this in 2023, because the rest of the division did not show a lot of scoring prowess on Sunday either.

Cardinals at Commanders: The Preseason Is a Lie, Part II

To conclude the week and the reminder that the preseason is a lie, Washington was the other team I let myself get tricked by based on August results. Some of my favorite prop picks and parlay builders all week were Sam Howell over 1.5 touchdown passes (+154), Jahar Dotson touchdown, and Dotson going over 43.5 yards (or whatever it was) in a comfortable, 7-point cover for the Commanders at home against lowly Arizona.

But none of it worked out. The Commanders barely got the win, needing a strip-sack from Josh Dobbs – he seems to have an issue with these – to set up a short, 29-yard field going into the fourth quarter with the team down 16-10. Howell scrambled for the go-ahead touchdown, then the defense finished the job the rest of the way as Dobbs had 3 fumbles (2 lost) in the game.

But I thought this was setting up perfectly for Howell to shine against this defense and generate all those headlines about how the Chiefs miss Eric Bieniemy as their offensive coordinator when the reality is they miss Travis Kelce and having any wide receiver who can catch a ball.

This was not good, because I thought they would attack Arizona with short, decisive passing, yet Howell showed his inexperience and took 6 sacks, including a brutal fumble for a touchdown where he was trying too hard. The run game only averaged 3.3 yards per carry too.

The Commanders got the 20-16 win, but this should have been a layup instead of a struggle. If this is how they are going to play Arizona, then I am already having some regrets going with 7 wins for Washington. Arizona may also win more than 2 games if that defense can keep up the pass rush.

But it is only Week 1 and teams shake off bad starts all the time. The only problem is we used to have some assurance that they would bounce back when it was Aaron Rodgers having a brutal game (2021 vs. Saints), the Patriots melting down in the Miami heat, or the Saints losing a shootout in the Superdome on opening day.

As the great Michael Irvin once said, we’re losing recipes.

We are dealing with a lot of new coaches and quarterbacks around the league. Rookie quarterbacks were 0-3 and new coaches were 0-5 on Sunday. Some of them are going to figure it out, and some showed their true colors on Sunday.

Strap in as this is going to be another odd season.