Tag: Steelers

2025 NFL Stat Oddity: Wild Card Weekend

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

The story all season for the NFL in 2025 was new contenders. The Chiefs, Ravens, and Lions didn’t even make the playoffs. The Eagles didn’t win a playoff game, so we’ll have a new champion.

We only have three of the same final eight teams from 2024 (Bills, Rams, and Texans). The Broncos, Seahawks, Patriots, Bears, and 49ers are all new in that round. This should have led to a crazy, unpredictable postseason, and if wild card weekend is any indication, we’re getting one of the craziest postseasons in NFL history.

All six games had a comeback opportunity, and the first four all had a game-winning touchdown scored by a trailing team after the two-minute warning, a single-postseason record. There’s never been a postseason with more than five fourth-quarter comebacks, so we have a great shot of tying or exceeding that here.

We’ve also already had 12 fourth-quarter lead changes in six games, another single-postseason record with seven games left. There have been entire postseasons where there wasn’t a single fourth-quarter lead change like 2020 (COVID year with empty stadiums) or 2005 (No. 6 seed Pittsburgh won).

I predicted Eagles over Bills in Super Bowl 60 on Friday night, and that’s already halfway wrong after Philadelphia’s title defense ended in somewhat predictable fashion. The 49ers’ insane 22-year streak of either making the NFC Championship Game (7x) or missing the playoffs with a non-winning record (15x) is still alive and just has to get through Sam Darnold next week to continue for the 23rd year in a row.

But that’s next week. First, let’s recap the weekend, which I think you can argue is the best wild card weekend in NFL history. I don’t think any one game this weekend would make a top 5 list of NFL wild card playoff games, but the collective competitiveness of the weekend and the way these teams were just matching scores (for four games) in the fourth quarter was crazy to watch.

Something truly memorable from a weird season to this point.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Texans at Steelers: Same Old Steelers with Their Old Quarterback

The Steelers lost their seventh playoff game in a row as DeMeco Ryans has already matched Mike Tomlin’s last 15 seasons in playoff wins (3) in just three years on the job in Houston. What a job it’s been too. He just won a playoff game by 24 points on the road despite his quarterback, C.J. Stroud, turning the ball over three times with five fumbles (two lost).

But that 30-6 score is going to be one of the most misleading finals in postseason history. This was a 7-6 game at halftime and going into the fourth quarter. It was only 10-6 Houston when Pittsburgh foolishly called another run on 2nd-and-10 that lost 2 yards as they never got a ground game going all night.

Then on 3rd-and-12, Rodgers was buried in the backfield, coughed up the ball, and the Texans returned it for a touchdown. You could definitely argue there was a blow to the head that made his helmet move that could have been called for roughing the passer to negate the turnover and touchdown.

If this is Rodgers’ last playoff game (or game period), maybe it’s fitting it ends with a fumble-six after an uncalled penalty, shades of no facemask call on him in Arizona in the 2009 wild card loss. Actually, his last pass of the night here ended up being a fourth-down pick-six as the Texans have now scored six return touchdowns in just five playoff games in the Stroud-Ryans era. It’s possible his last pass is a playoff pick-six after his last pass as a Packer was a game-ending interception at home in a game with playoff implications against the Lions.

It usually never ends well. For the Steelers, nothing has ended well in the last decade, but I’ll say this one was a little different since you really can’t blame the defense. Sure, they had poor plays on third downs all night, but it was a 10-6 game with 13:00 left. Do something on offense. The Steelers got a Stroud fumble at the Houston 21 and moved the ball 4 yards before settling for a field goal.

They stuck to their guns, which means they have no identity on offense. They had some good plays early to D.K. Metcalf before he dropped a big pass and shut down the rest of the night. Pat Freiermuth’s usage all season was criminal, but that’s what happens when your QB is so WR-centric and your OC is in love with Jonnu Smith.

The Steelers even led 3-0 after the first quarter, a big departure from their usual 21-0 deficit in the playoffs. But the Texans still got to 30 points, extending their record streak to 7 playoff games allowing 28+ points. They also set a record with a fifth-straight playoff loss by double digits.

The Houston defense is great, but the Steelers had them on their heels early and just got worse by the drive. No touchdowns scored. It was actually better when the Steelers would lose a 45-42 playoff game at home. At least the offense could score after some mistakes. This was impotency.

This team was false hope all year. They’d look good for a half against a contender, then they’d get crushed after halftime against the Seahawks, Chargers, Packers, Bills, and now the Texans.

And the sad part is nothing really changes until they fire Tomlin and get lucky with a high draft pick on a quarterback. That’s the only way you’re going to get fundamental change in Pittsburgh.

I think 600 words will suffice, because what more could you say at this point? Same old Steelers.

Packers at Bears: Finally, This Rivalry Is Worth Watching in Prime Time

The 2025 Packers-Bears just gave us the best trilogy since, what, Nolan’s Batman? For years we had to endure this dated rivalry in an island game, but with the arrival of coach  Ben Johnson in Chicago, we got three great games late in the season with the Bears winning both meetings at Soldier Field in dramatic comeback fashion as they’ve done all year.

I’m not sure if Johnson’s vitriol for the Packers stems from his Lions days (jealousy?), or if it’s just manufactured bravado to endear himself with the Chicago community. But he may have ended Matt LaFleur’s time in Green Bay or at least limited it to one more season at best after a total collapse from the Packers, who lost their last four regular-season games before blowing a 21-3 lead on the road, and a 15-point lead in the fourth quarter (only the fourth time that’s happened in the playoffs after Roger Staubach’s comeback off the bench in 1972, the 2002 49ers vs. Giants, and Super Bowl 51).

The wild part is, much like John Harbaugh losing his Baltimore job on the swing of a kicker’s 44-yard field goal, it’s not like Johnson badly outcoached LaFleur in this game. In fact, some curious decisions by Johnson on fourth downs (Dan Campbell’s protégé) helped lead to the Bears trailing 21-3 at halftime. Green Bay kicker Brandon McManus also cost the team 7 points by missing three makeable kicks.

The Packers, who never won another game after Micah Parsons tore his ACL in Denver, wasted one of Jordan Love’s best games of the season. He didn’t turn the ball over, he distributed the ball very well to his wideouts with four of them catching a touchdown, including the first of the year for rookie Matthew Golden after they got him in space to show off his speed. Love did this with Josh Jacobs not producing a damn thing on the ground after halftime, which is part of why the Packers became ineffective and kept giving the ball back to the Bears to make this 18-point comeback.

Caleb Williams looked like a young quarterback going through first-playoff start jitters. He threw two interceptions on fourth downs, one of which shouldn’t have been caught as it cost the Packers 27 yards in field position.

But the Bears were hanging in there at 21-6 in the fourth quarter, then proceeded to catch quite a few breaks. Williams nearly lost a fumble on a 3rd-and-10 sack, but the Bears recovered the ball and were able to kick the 51-yard field goal to make it 21-9.

After Love was called for his second grounding penalty of the half, the Bears scored a touchdown to make it 21-16. The Packers overcame some mistakes and made it 28-16 on Golden’s great touchdown with 6:36 left. That should have been a dagger, but these 2025 Bears don’t know when to die.

But it’s funny how the key turning point of the game was the result of the Bears not being well prepared on offense, which should be Johnson’s expertise area, and getting bailed out for it to save the game. Chicago faced a 4th-and-3 at midfield with 5:37 left. Hurrying to get the snap off, the Bears snapped the ball over Williams’ head, which would have been a disastrous, likely game-ending turnover on downs.

But the Bears were penalized for a false start, setting up a 4th-and-8, and given a second chance, Williams made the throw of his career to find Rome Odunze for 27 yards. Game on from there.

It could have been curtains without the false start, so that’s how another Chicago mistake actually saved the game. The Bears turned that drive into 8 points and it was 27-24 with 4:18 left. But then it was LaFleur’s turn to ruin the game for his team with infuriating timeout usage. He burned one after an incomplete pass brought up 3rd-and-10, then the Packers immediately suffered a delay of game coming out of it anyway. Inexcusable.

That’s when McManus missed the 44-yard field goal with 2:51 left. Not the biggest miss of the game for him if you ask me. He missed the extra point after Golden’s touchdown that would have made it 28-16 with 6:36 left. That would have meant the Bears had to score two touchdowns instead of possibly settling for 8+3 or 3+8.

The Bears ended up scoring 2 touchdowns anyway, but look at the impact that point had. Instead of trailing 31-28 or 29-28 after Chicago’s last score, it was a 31-27 deficit, meaning Love had to get a touchdown with 1:36 and one timeout left instead of a field goal.

Green Bay’s usage of that final timeout was also questionable, then as fate would have it, an injury led to a 10-second runoff, making things even harder. Love almost had Golden for a touchdown on one play, but then he fumbled the final snap and had to fire a pass to the end zone that fell incomplete, and the Bears extended their record with a seventh win this season after trailing in the final 2:00.

Going into this game, I would have thought the rumors of LaFleur getting fired with a loss were BS. But after seeing the way it played out and thinking about all the big-game failures he’s had in seven years, the Packers might be wise for a change of leadership here.

It probably wasn’t going to be a Super Bowl season anyway for the Packers after losing Parsons, but that second half was coaching malpractice. It wouldn’t be so crazy for LaFleur to be moving on to another team for 2026 now.

As for the Bears, what more can you say? Caleb Williams is exactly the reason why a stat like EPA per play isn’t the end-all, be-all of stats for quarterbacks. Can you get the job done and score when you have to no matter how many downs or snaps it takes? He seems to be pretty good at that, and some of the throws are just incredible. Still misses his share of easy ones, but he can get better with that.

It should be quite the game with the Rams next week, another new matchup. The Rams have already allowed five game-winning drives, so Williams might have a shot at tying the single-season 4QC/GWD records with eight each.

Bills at Jaguars: The Trevor Lawrence Legacy Game Goes as Expected

The Buffalo pass defense. Like I’ve been saying for over a month, the Buffalo pass defense in a playoff field without Patrick Mahomes is why this team can get to the Super Bowl even without home games or a good run defense. They just have to stop some unproven quarterbacks in crunch time, and Lawrence was the first on their list, bringing the season totals to 8 saves and 0 blown leads for the Bills.

Oh, there were lead changes in the fourth quarter just as there were in all the early games this weekend. But when it came time for the final drive and Lawrence had a solid minute to get a kicker with incredible range into position, he immediately threw a pick to end the season.

But I think the game was lost well before that. The Jaguars should have had a run-heavy approach in this one. How does Tuten rip off runs of 20, 14, and 13 yards to end the first quarter and get one more carry the rest of the game? How?

They put their eggs in Lawrence’s basket, and while he settled down later in the game and made some nice throws, he killed them early with a pick that led to a 1-yard field goal drive for the Bills. He killed them when he ducked under a defender and his shin was down short on a 4th down in the red zone when the Jags had a chance to go up 14-3 after the Bills fumbled a kickoff.

It was evident early that Lawrence wasn’t on his A game, but the Jaguars didn’t do enough to test that run defense of the Bills. Also, the Jags were gifted a 54-yard field goal attempt before halftime that I’m not sure they deserved by beating the clock (did they really?), and Cam Little, after all the praise for his record-long kicks, missed it. That hurts in a 3-point loss.

But the Bills had a good offensive plan to throw those little short passes to Shakir to pace the offense on a day where James Cook was bottled up by the No. 1 run defense. Maybe a few too many Josh Allen designed runs when he’s banged up, but they made it work. And of course with the season on the line, he went to the Tush Push again, and this time he was pushed ahead for a 10-yard gain on 4th-and-1 with the season on the line.

That play was so weird to me. You obviously want to stop them since it’s fourth down. But once he got moving like that, do you just let them score? It was 24-20, so Buffalo absolutely needed a touchdown, but what if you stop them at the 5? You can still get a stop there to win the game. Once he got to the 1, why not just let him go the distance? Weird play.

Then Buffalo was stuck in no man’s land since you really don’t want to risk wasting a down with a bad play and getting a penalty or something stupid to push you back. Ideally, you’d run clock there and score on 2nd down with the sneak, leaving the Jaguars less than 20 seconds to work with. But they scored on first down, whether by design or not, and the Jaguars were going to get the ball back in a 27-24 game with 59 seconds left.

But you get a wild tipped ball that’s intercepted, and just like that, the season is over for the Jaguars. To evoke Dan Campbell, this may have been their best shot too in this AFC. But that’s one road win and one postseason game-winning drive in the books for Allen, who had neither of those things in his career before Sunday.

Next up is Denver as I predicted it’d be, and I think they have a very good shot of winning that one too because of their pass defense against Bo Nix. Again, someone has to be willing to run to take this team down, and someone better get Allen to the ground on defense. That’s why Houston is really the danger team for the Bills, but they may end up avoiding them here.

So far, so good.

Rams at Panthers: Stafford with MVP-Style Revenge Against Carolina

I kept saying the spread (Rams -10.5) was always too high for a team that’s been shaky in the last month like the Rams, who have already blown games as a huge favorite along with two huge leads in the second half against the Eagles and Seahawks. They already lost in Carolina in Week 13.

The Rams prevailed 34-31 this time, but it did show why they’re a shaky bet to go the distance. The short-yardage runs, the fourth-down decision making, the defensive play as of late, and some turnovers from Stafford and the offense are not leading to dominant play late in the season.

In this game, Stafford completed his first eight passes with Puka Nacua doing whatever he wants. But then Stafford hit his hand on a helmet and wasn’t the same. Nacua dropped a 46-yard touchdown going into halftime, and the Rams had a huge turnover on downs moment late in the second quarter. I get why McVay went for it; to control the rest of the clock and go into halftime up 13-17 points. But by not getting it, the Rams only led by 3.

Bryce Young was more than solid in his first playoff game. Certainly a few plays he’d like to have back, but the running game wasn’t there for him, and he made some clutch throws in big spots to finish with 264 passing yards.

Young did lead two go-ahead touchdown drives in the fourth quarter, but the defense was unable to hold up. They had a chance at a Stafford interception on a mix-up with Nacua with just under 12:00 left, but Puka made a play on the ball to force an incompletion on a drive that ended with a touchdown instead.

But when the Rams got the ball back with 2:34 left, it was all calmness and precision from Stafford on the 71-yard march to win the game. He reportedly told Davante Adams that it was time to go rip their hearts out, which he did. He threw a 19-yard touchdown to Colby Parkinson with 38 seconds left.

Young got the ball back in a 34-31 game with all three timeouts, so that gives you access to the entire playbook and you can use every square inch of the field with no concern for the clock. However, he unfortunately saved his worst drive for the last as the Panthers couldn’t gain a yard, and Young threw four straight incompletions to end the game on downs.

Horn had a chance at a low catch on fourth down, but by that point, you’re down to under 7 seconds and still not in field goal range, so the real failure of the drive came well before the final snap. Just not the execution we saw from Young in these moments in the regular season, and it cost them at the end here.

But it was still a great effort for an 8-9 team that was the biggest home underdog in NFL playoff history. Scary times for the Rams, but they prevailed and are moving onto Chicago.

49ers at Eagles: Repeating Is Hard

The 2025 Eagles were able to end a long drought and repeat as NFC East champions, but the only other repeat they’re going to end 2025 with is reminding us that this offense played half-assed football all season going back to opening night against Dallas when they only scored a field goal after a great first half.

The Eagles repeatedly did this all season, so it’s no surprise their season ended in this fashion. They scored two touchdowns on their first three drives, then never found the end zone on their last seven possessions. A.J. Brown bitched about targets all year and finished this game with 3 catches for 25 yards and some bad drops/incompletions. He might have played his last game with Philly.

Meanwhile, the 49ers hung in there and made it work without Ricky Pearsall, then they lost tight end George Kittle to a torn Achilles early in the game. Demarcus Robinson set the tone early with a 61-yard catch-and-run in stride on the opening drive, which he finished with a touchdown on his way to 111 yards.

Brock Purdy wasn’t perfect with a couple of interceptions, but he played well to get to 262 yards and 2 touchdowns without Kittle and Pearsall. They also couldn’t run the ball for much (16 carries for 51 yards). But on the first play of the fourth quarter, they brought back a trick play from Super Bowl 58 with Jauan Jennings throwing a 29-yard touchdown that required a great diving catch from Chrisitan McCaffrey to take a 17-16 lead. Both teams missed an extra point in the game (Eagles early, 49ers late).

The Eagles didn’t have Lane Johnson at tackle, which hurt as there were some big holding penalties that killed drives in the second half. They were able to turn Purdy’s second pick into a field goal drive that took a 19-17 lead with 8:00 left. But a defense that’s wilted in some fourth quarters blew a fifth lead this year. Purdy led a 66-yard march, finishing on third down with a 4-yard touchdown pass to CMC for a 23-19 lead with 2:54 left after the extra point was missed.

The 49ers probably should have gone for 2 there as 4 vs. 5 is little difference, and at least if you’re up 6 points, the other team might miss the extra point as we’ve seen Jake Elliott do this year.

Anyways, it was on Hurts to deliver a game-winning drive, which would have been his first in the postseason. It was nearly a four-and-out drive after a horrible drop by Brown on third down. But Dallas Goedert cleaned it up with 15 yards on fourth-and-5. However, once the drive reached the San Francisco 20, things stalled out. The poor pass rush for the 49ers got home for a 1-yard loss on a sack, then Hurts threw three straight incompletions to end the season for the Eagles.

On 4th-and-11, Hurts threw to Goedert with three defenders around him and it was closer to a pick than anything. I’m not sure he had any real other options on the play, but that’s season over there. The 49ers pulled it off.

I was going to reply to a tweet I saw before kickoff about the bad EPA rankings for the 49ers’ defense this year, and I keep hearing the sentiment that they’re a bottom-5 defense, which doesn’t jive with their ranking of 13th in points and 16th in points per drive allowed.

Again, this is an example of how EPA can miss some fundamental information. That’s a stat that can get juiced and heavily inflated by splash plays like sacks and turnovers. So, it’s not a surprise the 49ers don’t look good in EPA when they don’t get many splash plays. But they must be doing something right if they’re usually not getting destroyed on the scoreboard.

Throw in the struggles of the Eagles to play a 60-minute game on offense, and the 49ers always had a good shot of pulling this one out as a low-scoring game you win in the fourth quarter. That’s exactly what happened too.

They can do the same thing in Seattle, a team they’ve held to 13 points in both meetings this year. But we have all week to build up that one.

The Eagles are done. No repeat for them like I foolishly picked on Friday night. But I thought the defense would be better than this as I didn’t see getting killed by Robinson and a touchdown pass from Jennings leading to the end for this team.

Finally, I don’t think it’s hindsight to question why Nick Sirianni didn’t try to get that No. 2 seed last week by beating Washington. Wouldn’t you rather face a banged-up Green Bay team that’s lost four in a row? A team you already beat in a low-scoring game instead of a 49ers team that is well coached and still has some elite players, and they never seem to go one-and-done in the postseason. They can score too with Purdy, so yeah, I think that was a tactical error by Sirianni.

Not to mention getting home-field over Chicago if you’re the No. 2 seed. I didn’t like that decision to rest last week, and I really don’t like it now after what we saw from the Eagles on Sunday.

Chargers at Patriots: Roman, Lend Me Your Ears So I Can Whisper “You’re Fired”

The last NFL team to score 3 points in a playoff game before the Chargers on Sunday night was the Ravens in Buffalo during COVD. Who was the offensive coordinator? Greg Roman. I think we’ve seen enough of him here, and while it’s clearly not all his fault, he’s wasting Justin Herbert’s talent and hasn’t gotten any good results in the big games the last two years. I think they should make him the sacrificial lamb and fire him over this one after the Chargers scored 22 points in the final three games of the season.

Moving onto the quarterback, these Herbert playoff appearances keep getting worse. Now 0-3, I actually think he was better last year when he threw four interceptions (one dropped, one down 20) in Houston compared to this impotent performance with 3 points making the 2025 Patriots look like the 2003 Patriots. The weather wasn’t even an issue.

I also think that Houston game might be messing with him mentally, because how do you not pull the trigger to McConkey on this play early?

You can’t be too worried about throwing picks in a game like this. That’s how you end up scoring 3 points and just running or taking sacks all night because you’re scared of putting the ball 10 yards down the field. Terrible mindset to have in a playoff game.

The thing is the pass protection wasn’t really that bad until it was 16-3 in the fourth quarter. Then Herbert was swarmed and engulfed. But the damage had already been done earlier on the first seven drives.

As for Drake Maye in his first playoff game, he was bad. He was inaccurate against a zone defense. He turned into a sack merchant again, going down 5 times (lost over 6 yards per sack too this time so he wasn’t even mitigating the losses this week), and he should have had two lost fumbles, and the second one could have been an easy touchdown for the Chargers that would have made it an interesting 16-10 game with time. Most of his big plays were blown coverage or huge YAC on a checkdown to Stevenson.

Just not impressed, and objectively I don’t know how people can praise a 16-point performance like this from a quarterback. But it was his first playoff game, and he at least did better in the second half after a poor first half. Just interesting to note that in his second NFL win over a winning team, he had a 6-3 lead at halftime in both games (this and at Buffalo).

There’s also the fact that Vrabel and New England are used to these low-scoring playoff wins.

What’s next, two special teams touchdowns against Houston while Josh Dobbs has to come off the bench and direct a win? Then beating the Rams in the Super Bowl with 13 offensive points? Or is that only reserved for Brady?

Neither the Texans nor Patriots allowed a touchdown this week, so who knows what to expect from that one. But based on this game, I wouldn’t expect a ton of scoring from Maye in the passing game.

But the Chargers are in a tough spot as they need a new OC and they’ll probably lose their DC (Jesse Minter) to a head coaching Job. I’m not sure you can ever trust Herbert in one of these games until he proves he can get the job done. And they’re always on the road because they can seemingly never win this division. The Chiefs won’t be down for long, and the Broncos have a lot of good players and a coach on par with Harbaugh.

The 2025 Chargers had that built-in excuse with the offensive tackles going out, but I’m surprised at how little of a factor that was for three quarters on Sunday. Just played a lot of bad, passive football and that can be even worse than getting aggressive and throwing some picks.

At least they scored more points last year in Houston.

Next week: I always say the divisional round is the best weekend of the NFL year, but it’s got a high bar to clear after what we just saw. It’s also going to try to do it by introducing the top seeds, Seattle and Denver, into the mix. We’ll see if the Texans can sack the Patriots, and Rams vs. Bears could be the shootout of the postseason.

NFL 2025 Wild Card Predictions: Path to Super Bowl 60 Edition

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

The 2025 NFL season has been so hard to predict that I wish I could find a way to write off all 14 playoff teams. The good news is 13 of them will lose in the next month, and this is the moment where I make that prediction for the last team standing.

There are so many teams that I feel like you can immediately write off for one huge reason that will inevitably doom them in trying to win 3-4 playoff games in a row:

  • Panthers – They’re just not good enough.
  • Patriots – Schedule merchants who aren’t ready to go the distance
  • Steelers – Tomlin’s playoff defense will eventually implode
  • Texans – Defense is great but that offense is going to tank them eventually
  • Chargers – Offensive line won’t hold up for 4 road wins
  • Broncos – Stagnant offense that waits until the 4th quarter to score will doom them
  • Bears – Way too reliant on D/ST fueling late-game comebacks
  • Packers – Not enough horses to go on No. 7 seed run without Parsons and Kraft

That leaves six teams who I feel can win it all even though they have a glaring issue that concerns me. But it’s something I feel the rest of the team can cover up for a game or two that they can maybe squeak by.

  • Bills – Run defense has been playing better and not sure who in the AFC can really run wild on them.
  • Jaguars – A shame one has to lose Sunday but this could either be Trevor Lawrence’s chance to be Eli/Flacco/Foles or he implodes with too much responsibility
  • Seahawks – I don’t trust Sam Darnold but he probably has the best situation going for him and he almost beat the Rams after throwing 4 INTs because of that team support.
  • 49ers – Still think a core that’s been to two Super Bowls can get back home for SB 60 but the injuries (Bosa, Warner, Pearsall, etc.) make it so tough on the road.
  • Eagles – Yes, their offense should probably have them in the first category, but this is why track record matters and I’m still willing to give the 2-time NFC champs with the reigning SB MVP a shot (defense is better than a year ago too).
  • Rams – Probably played as well as any team has all year but they’ve blown five games and struggle to close and it’s usually the little things (short yardage runs, FG kicking, 4th down stops on D, etc.).

So how do I see it playing out? Many, many ways if I’m being honest. But if you want one version of my vision today, here it goes:

Rams take care of the Panthers, Packers eliminate the Bears, and the Eagles take out the 49ers this weekend in the NFC.

Bills outlast the Jags, the Chargers go chargering in New England, and the Steelers finally win one for Tomlin to take out the best defense.

Seattle survives a scare from Green Bay in the 7-1 matchup, and the Eagles find a way again to deny McVay and Stafford.

Buffalo eliminates Denver for the second year in a row, and the Steelers lose a game they should have won in New England.

Vic Fangio puts Sam Darnold in a blender and he implodes against that secondary like everyone expected him to do.

The Bills do it to the Patriots again at Foxboro as Josh Allen has his first playoff game-winning drive while Maye can’t close again.

Super Bowl 60 is a rematch from Week 17: Bills vs. Eagles but in good weather. However, the Bills’ lack of wideouts hurts them against that defense again, and the Eagles find a way to repeat despite hearing all year how their offense is garbage. But don’t sleep on that defense, and I still think Jalen Hurts has the ability to rise to the occasion with the talent around him to make some necessary plays that he didn’t really have to do last postseason. This time, he gets it done and the Eagles do in fact pull off the repeat.

I don’t love it. In fact, I’d rather see something like Texans vs. 49ers since I bet on it over a month ago, or maybe the Packers do the unthinkable and go to the Super Bowl as the first No. 7 seed after I picked them the last two years to do so.

But this is where I am. I’m also very open to the Rams getting it done by actually closing games out, which would mean getting rid of the Eagles in the divisional round and getting some revenge on Darnold for that blown 16-point lead in what was the game of the year for the regular season. Jacksonville winning this weekend would also throw a huge wrench in my vision, but if that happens, then I really do believe Lawrence can do the Eli/Flacco/Foles thing here.

We’re overdue for one of those anyway, aren’t we?

NFL Wild Card Picks

Already let the cat out of the bag with this weekend’s picks, but for spread purposes, here are my wild card picks:

  • Rams 26, Panthers 20 – That spread (Rams -10.5) is too high but the Rams move on
  • Packers 24, Bears 17- Snow game? Run the ball, GB.
  • Bills 24, Jaguars 20 – Maybe lower scoring than expected, but I think the Bills will have more balanced offense and Lawrence will have a big pick.
  • Eagles 20, 49ers 17 – Lowest scoring game of the week.
  • Patriots 23, Chargers 20 – Dicker the Kicker choke incoming? Does Maye have a Tuck Rule moment in him for his first playoff game?
  • Steelers 26, Texans 23 – More points than expected as Aaron Rodgers finds a way to get it done against the top defense.

This Week’s Articles

Guess I really wrote this ass-backwards this week, but here are links to my final QB rankings of 2025 (won’t be doing anymore until July), Fraud Alert Ratings for 2025 playoff teams, and about 12,000 words in full previews on every Wild Card game.

2025 Final NFL Quarterback Rankings: Matthew Stafford Is the MVP
2025 NFL Fraud Alert Rating: Should We Trust the Bears and Patriots in the Playoffs?
2025 NFC Wild Card Preview: Are We Sleeping on the Philadelphia Eagles Repeating?
2025 AFC Wild Card Preview: Without the Chiefs and Ravens, Things Feel Wide Open This Year
Scott’s Seven NFL Picks: 2025 Wild Card Weekend

2025 NFL Stat Oddity: Week 18

~ Scott ~ 1 Comment

After a Week 18 finale that saw nine comeback opportunities, the 2025 regular season is in the books. I can’t recall a crazier season than this one with none of the Chiefs, Ravens, or Bills winning their division, and the first two didn’t even have a winning record.

Seven new division winners is a record, and somehow the only team that repeated (Eagles) is from the division that never repeats (first time since 2004).

We might see a Trevor Lawrence vs. Sam Darnold Super Bowl at this point. That’s why I was worried my preseason predictions would be the worst they ever were, but they weren’t. In fact, by being off by an average of 2.72 wins, I’ve had five seasons since 2013 that were less accurate.

One difference this year is I only got one team exactly right, and it was the Steelers finishing 10-7. Barely. But I only had five teams where I was off by 5+ games, so that’s not too bad.

Onto the playoffs.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Seahawks at 49ers: The No. 1 Seed

It didn’t necessarily look like a battle for the No. 1 seed in the NFC, because the Seahawks and 49ers repeatedly made mistakes to keep the score so low in this 13-3 final. In fact, the game set history for the fewest points ever in the NFL despite both quarterbacks completing over 70% of their passes and both running games averaging over 4.0 yards per carry:

But the Seahawks prevailed because their defense was the best unit in the game. It helps when the 49ers didn’t have Trent Williams or Ricky Pearsall, but the 49ers scored their fewest points in a game under Kyle Shanahan since they managed just a field goal in his debut against Carolina way back in 2017.

Brock Purdy was held to 127 yards on 19 completions, and Christian McCaffrey had a rough night with 23 yards on 8 carries. He also tipped a pass deep in the red zone for a killer interception in the fourth quarter when the 49ers trailed 13-3.

Speaking of which, the 49ers are now 0-50 when trailing by 8+ points in the fourth quarter under Shanahan. I’ve seen the stat posted as 0-47, but I think that misses a couple playoff games, and it’s possible Stathead has a data error for a game that doesn’t belong. But I know the 0 wins is 100% accurate as Shanahan’s teams have never been able to make these comebacks, and butterfingers on a pick like that won’t help.

Sam Darnold got through a big game without any turnovers, though he did nearly lose a fumble and got lucky on a sideline throw where a defender only got one foot in bounds. But he was okay outside of taking a brutal sack on 1st-and-goal at the 1 on the opening drive before misfiring on fourth-and-goal. His running backs absolutely dominated with 230 yards from scrimmage between the duo.

The Seahawks missed field goals from 47 and 26 (WTF?), so that kept the score low too even though they dominated the game in first downs (23-9) and yards (361-173).

It means Seattle has a week off and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs, something they had in their three previous Super Bowl trips (2005, 2013-14). The 49ers will have to travel and win some road games if they want to get back to Levi’s Stadium for Super Bowl 60.

The 49ers’ stock definitely takes a hit from this game, but I’m still not sold on the Seahawks as a Super Bowl team. But we have time to get into that the next two weeks or more.

Ravens at Steelers: Game of the Weekend

I can tell my Steelers fandom isn’t what it used to be, because I should have been a basket case watching that fourth quarter, which was as dramatic as any game this season with everything on the line.

But I was almost resigned to the fact of a Baltimore win, and I had a good vision for the playoffs with a Baltimore win, including a potential AFC Championship Game between the Bills and Ravens.

But that’s all moot now after Aaron Rodgers delivered one of his most clutch comebacks in his long career given the D.K. Metcalf suspension and the way they leaned on him heavily with a season-high 294 passing yards. That good old Baltimore defense, always ripe for hitting up for big yards and a double-digit comeback. You could see things trending that way even before Kyle Hamilton was injured in the third quarter as the Steelers should  have finished the last drive of the first half with 6 before a goal-line stop.

However, the Steelers had some mental lapses on defense and left receivers wide open for Lamar Jackson, who hit them either for long touchdowns or what should have been a game-winning play to Likely to set up the field goal. But you definitely don’t love taking a 2-yard knee and not giving the ball to Derrick Henry for some more yards to get closer when you had a timeout left. Always get closer in that stadium for a kick of 40+ yards.

I had picked the Ravens to win the Super Bowl this year with the idea that 2025 would finally be the year they protect the ball and not screw things up with the season on the line. But my worry this summer was the rookie kicker, Tyler Loop, screwing things up in taking over for [REDACTED] and missing a do-or-die field goal.

Remember, the Ravens were in this position because Chris Boswell, usually one of the most reliable kickers in the game, missed the extra point. He’s been terrible the last three weeks for some reason, and he almost helped end the team’s season as they hung onto a 26-24 lead instead of 27-24.

But whether it was nerves for a rookie, a cold night, or the holy water thrown on that end of the end zone before the game, but fate smiled on the Steelers and Loop’s 44-yard field goal was wide right, ending Baltimore’s season, maybe John Harbaugh’s coaching tenure, and sending the Steelers to the playoffs with their first AFC North title since 2020.

Talk about streaks colliding next week. The Steelers are on a 6-game losing streak in the playoffs, allowing at least 28 points in every game (NFL record). But they’ve won 23 straight home games on Monday night with no losses since 1991, and it’s a Monday night game with Houston, who I felt last year was the kind of team the Steelers would need to face to end the streak as they shouldn’t have the offense that can light up the Steelers.

Maybe things with Rodgers, who gets Metcalf back, will be different this time. Maybe it’ll be another 21-0 deficit before you can blink (Chargers did fall behind 14-0 to Houston in 5:00 two weeks ago).

But in this twisted AFC, I’m actually feeling a little optimistic about the Steelers again and looking forward to Monday night.

Panthers at Buccaneers: The Funniest NFC South Ending, Part 1

Objectively, this game sure felt like the officiating was in favor of Tampa Bay to make sure it came down to Sunday’s game in Atlanta. There were some atrocious calls on a fumble, a weak OPI call that wiped out a big play in the third quarter, Cade Otton getting DPI for tripping over his own feet, a missed facemask, etc.

Officiating aside, I thought the quarterbacks handled the wet and rainy conditions well outside of a bad pick thrown by each. Bryce Young didn’t take any sacks, and he still threw for 266 yards and 2 touchdowns with literally no help from the running game (12 carries for 20 yards).

In fact, the running back position killed this game for Carolina in the fourth quarter when Rico Dowdle fell to the ground and tried to pitch the ball back to Young on a flea-flicker, and the Bucs recovered that fumble in a 16-7 game. Killer stuff, and no, you should never be trying a flea-flicker at the opponent 20 as that takes away the real long deep ball you’d like to set up from that. That’s why I question if that was actually the call or if Dowdle just tried to ad-lib after falling.

That was a crushing blow even with the Bucs getting their 36-yard field goal blocked on the other end. By the time the Panthers scored their touchdown and used their timeouts to get the ball back in a 16-14 game, just 18 seconds remained at their own 3-yard line. Tough for even the Carolina Reaper to do anything in that spot.

Alas, they had a backup route to the playoffs…

Saints at Falcons: The Funniest NFC South Ending, Part 2

We got the perfect ending to the 2025 NFC South as the Falcons did in fact beat the Saints to help Carolina win the division for the first time since 2015. Everything was coming up Carolina’s way in this game, including a late interception by Tyler Shough (otherwise played well) that probably locked up OROY for Tetairoa McMillan too.

Wild that you can get this much going your way by losing your last two games like Carolina did. But even with winning enough games to get to 8-9 and force that three-way tie, the Falcons still fired coach Raheem Morris. Can’t say I disagree with that one. This team should have won the division this year and blew it.

Now, the Saints might end up being the winner next year if they can add a few pieces around Shough.

Chargers at Broncos: Trey Lance Tried (Sorta)

The Chargers started Trey Lance instead of Justin Herbert, and it went about as poorly as you expected. He threw a pick-six, but the defense kept the Chargers hanging around all day before the Broncos pulled away late to win the No. 1 seed.

I get the idea of Sean Payton “saving things” for the playoffs on offense since he could see this team again in two weeks if the Chargers upset the No. 2 Patriots on the road. But it was still not an encouraging game on offense from Bo Nix and company.

Dolphins at Patriots: No Repeat of 2019

I guess you need a Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback to go into Foxboro for a finale upset if you’re Miami. That’s a callback to 2019 when the Patriots blew a first-round bye. You don’t get a bye for the No. 2 seed anymore, but the Patriots wrapped it up by making short order of the Dolphins. The running back duo scored five touchdowns in a variety of ways.

I haven’t seen any news on Mike McDaniel getting fired, so maybe he ends up coming back without Tua Tagovailoa in 2026.

Jets at Bills: Mitch Trubisky Caps Off Historic Season for QBs Facing Jets

You see why the schedule matters? The Jets played such a pathetic month of football that they gave up 6 touchdowns to Trevor Lawrence, 5 touchdowns to Drake Maye, and Mitch Trubisky hit them with 4 to end their season allowing 36 touchdown passes with 0 interceptions, new NFL records for futility. Only the Jets.

James Cook is lucky Derrick Henry slowed down in the second half or he would have lost that rushing title to him. But the Bills got to pad some defensive stats in the win and now have to face the Jaguars on the road in maybe the most interesting game of wild card weekend.

Colts at Texans: Maybe Riley Leonard Should Have Started?

I’m not saying the Colts make the playoffs if they start Riley Leonard instead of bringing Philip Rivers out of retirement. But maybe they should trust their coach and start Leonard when he was healthy? I was shocked at how he was taking it to Houston on the road in his first NFL start, and they were playing starters on defense when he did his most damage in the first half.

Unfortunately, even with the Texans calling off some dogs in the second half, Davis Mills led a game-winning drive and the Texans still won 32-30 to get to 12-5. But Steichen can coach offense, and it’s just unfortunate what happened to the Colts this year and how poorly the Sauce Gardner trade will age, especially if they try to get the draft resources together to steal Arch Manning in 2027.

Titans at Jaguars: Short Work

Watching Trevor Lawrence scramble in the third quarter with a 31-7 lead had me holding my breath. Get him on the sideline; this one was over. But great winning streak by the Jaguars to end the season, and Lawrence is playing the best ball of his career. Cam Ward unfortunately got injured on a touchdown scramble run, the first time he missed snaps this year. Get him a coach and he could be much better in 2026.

Chiefs at Raiders: Damn, Can Spags Hold Any Lead?

The Chiefs finish 2025 with 0 saves on defense (upheld a one-score lead in the fourth quarter/overtime) and 4 blown leads. They even gave up two more game-winning drives in the games Mahomes didn’t start. Spags really can’t stop anyone in crunch time, including Aidan O’Connell in the final minute.

The 2025 Chiefs without Mahomes are the first offense since the 2009 Raiders (JaMarcus Russell) to go three straight games without 170 yards of offense. If that was Travis Kelce’s final game, yikes. The Raiders got the win and still got the No. 1 pick on top of it.

But that’s also probably the last game in the coaching career of Pete Carroll. He was fired on Monday after one terrible season.

Browns at Bengals: Garrett Gets the Record in Stunning Fashion

It didn’t look like Myles Garrett was going to set the sack record after all. But with just over 5:00 left, he timed the snap perfectly and buried Joe Burrow for No. 23. I thought it was a little odd the way the game just stopped for it, but the Bengals should have used the time to come up with a better play.

While Joe Burrow did lead a rare go-ahead drive in the final minutes, he botched the critical 2-point conversion. That’s so costly in a 18-17 game where you open yourself up to losing by a field goal, which is more likely than ever now with the new kickoff rule and kicker’s range. Sure enough, Shedeur Sanders led his first game-winning drive with the Browns getting the walk-off field goal to make Garrett’s happy day even happier.

That makes up for Week 1 when the Browns choked on a go-ahead field goal late in the game against the Bengals. But what a sign of the times. The Browns win this game and fire Kevin Stefanski after six years. The Bengals lose again and are keeping Zac Taylor for 2026, reportedly.

Never change, Bungles.

Cardinals at Rams: Stafford Should Wrap Up MVP

The Rams played starters to go for the No. 5 seed, and it was one of those weeks where the Cardinals made it a close game, trailing only 23-20 to start the fourth quarter. But Stafford threw two more touchdowns to push his season total to 46, and the Rams finished 12-5, making the 2025 NFC West the first division ever with three 12-win teams.

I already wrote that I’m voting Stafford for MVP this year. Oddly enough, I think the Seattle loss cemented his case for me, doing what he did that night on the road without Adams in what should have been a win that led to the No. 1 seed. Then you watch what Bryce Young and Brock Purdy, two quarterbacks going to the playoffs, did against that Seattle defense in the next two games. Like two different sports.

The Rams should be disappointed with a 12-5 record though. They were in every game late and just didn’t close enough of them, and quarterback play is far down the list of reasons for that.

But maybe they’ll get a revenge tour in the playoffs, starting with the Carolina Panthers on Saturday.

Lions at Bears: Not Loving the Vibes, Ben

Can’t say I liked the way the Bears were down 16-0 at home when they had a chance to lock up the No. 2 seed with a win and drop Detroit under .500 in the process. They did eventually tie the game, but they didn’t close this time, and the Lions got a walk-off field goal to finish 9-8.

The No. 2 seed still worked out for them, but I wasn’t a big fan of the way Johnson handled this finale. Now it’s a rematch with Green Bay.

Commanders at Eagles: Backup Bowl

It’s not like the Eagles knew the Bears would lose to Detroit, but I’m still a bit down on Nick Sirianni for not trying to win this one with starters and get the No. 2 seed. I think I’d much rather play the Packers (injured team) first than the 49ers, and I’d much rather have home-field than go to Chicago should that 3-2 matchup come to fruition in the divisional round.

But the Eagles blew a 17-10 lead in the fourth quarter to Josh Johnson, and that’s why they’re going to play the 49ers now. A matchup we should have seen in the playoffs by now to get a rematch for the 2022 NFC-CG spoiled by Brock Purdy’s elbow injury on the 49ers’ first drive.

Cowboys at Giants: Why’d They Do Dak Like That?

Dak Prescott had won 12 games in a row against the Giants, had a chance to lead the NFL in passing yards, had a chance to finish .500 (8-8-1), and the Cowboys just ran it and benched him at halftime with 70 yards while the Giants rolled to a 34-17 win. I don’t get that at all, except maybe they wanted the Giants to get a weaker draft pick.

Packers at Vikings: [REDACTED]

If Matt LaFleur and the Packers didn’t care about losing their fourth in a row going into the playoffs, why should I care about their 16-3 loss? Ugly game. Had to call timeout and kick a field goal to avoid a shutout. I’ll just say “Nine” doesn’t seem capable of staying healthy, so that’s a problem for Minnesota going forward.

Next week: Playoffs? You kidding me? I’m somehow going to do the final QB rankings of 2025 for Monday, get Fraud Alert Rating for the season by Tuesday, full wild card previews for Wednesday/Thursday, and betting picks by Friday.

NFL 2025 Week 18 Predictions: For All the Marbles Edition

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

We’ve reached the final weekend of the NFL 2025 regular season, and it’s hard to remember a crazier season than this with so many new contenders and so many favorites falling off. Who would ever have believed that Philip Rivers (4) would throw more touchdowns in December than Patrick Mahomes (0 in 2 games) in 2025?

I just took a sneak peak at where my preseason predictions stand, and while I was expecting the absolute worst, it looks like they’ll either be slightly better than 2024, and no worse than 2020 or 2022. But I’ll post those results on Monday morning, and I plan on doing a pretty full week of content to wrap up 2025’s regular season and get going on playoff coverage for what should be one of the hardest postseasons to predict.

Is there any “gimme” game in this playoffs besides maybe the No. 5 seed in the NFC going to the NFC South winner? I don’t think so. Anyone can beat anyone here, and we’ve even seen the Rams already lose in Carolina, so even that 5-4 matchup is possibly up for grabs.

But we have three division title games (well, one is a quasi-division title game) this weekend, and we could see the final NFL games ever involving the likes of Travis Kelce, Pete Carroll, and Aaron Rodgers. Maybe the last game John Harbaugh ever coaches for the Ravens too, the 40th edition of Harbaugh vs. Tomlin.

This Week’s Articles

2025 NFL Quarterback Rankings Week 18: The Christmas Where Matthew Stafford and Josh Allen Wish They Were Gifted the Jets’ Defense
Scott’s Seven NFL Picks: Week 18

My picks have a parlay for the Ravens-Steelers, Seahawks-49ers, and two NFC South games. I also have picks for Myles Garrett, Travis Kelce, and a parlay of big winners.

NFL Week 18 Predictions

Hoping to finish strong, but it’s always a tough week when you don’t know how motivated the eliminated teams will be, or how many snaps starters will get for the playoff teams.

2025 NFL Week 18 Picks

CAR-TB and NO-ATL: Give me that NFC South special. The Bucs win on Saturday but still get eliminated on Sunday after Atlanta beats the Saints without Chris Olave (pulmonary embolism; get well soon, brother). 3-way tie at 8-9 goes to Carolina, which will hopefully be the impetus for the NFL to stop giving division winners a home playoff game automatically.

SEA-SF: It’s the biggest one and I respect Seattle being probably the best team in the league this year with all three losses coming in the final minute. But I am going with the 49ers at home as I think that offense is peaking and the Seahawks have a QB in Darnold who has to prove he won’t implode in these moments. I still don’t trust him.

CLE-CIN: Myles Garrett gets his sack record, Bengals still win by 8+. If I was Joe Burrow, I’d lay down to give Garrett the cheapest sack possible for the record. See if he takes the bait. Cause it’s Burrow, you know there will probably be other opportunities later in the game, but that’s what I would do to get it out of the way.

DAL-NYG: *Yawn* Dak beats Giants again to get Cowboys to 8-8-1.

GB-MIN: Are we really about to see Clayton Tune against a Flores defense? Yikes, what an awful way to lose the under 8.5 wins bet on the 2025 Vikings.

IND-HOU: Tempted to take Indy ATS, but I think Houston can win a 20-6 type of snoozer to end the season for the Colts with Riley Leonard at QB.

TEN-JAX: I have Jags winning the AFC South here, but I think Cam Ward can end his rookie season on a high note by at least covering the big spread.

KC-LV: Kenny Pickett returns? Chiefs should win but would it really be beneficial to the draft? Just get Travis Kelce his 10 yards quickly and be done with it.

DET-CHI: What a turnaround for these teams since Week 2. I think the Bears cover at home to get that No. 2 seed and drop Detroit to a losing record without Ben Johnson this year.

LAC-DEN: Trey Lance gets a start, and I know Keenan Allen needs 6 catches for a nice incentive. But I’m going to trust Harbaugh enough to not get embarrassed and cover the spread here. Denver wins the No. 1 seed though.

MIA-NE: This might have been interesting in Miami where the Patriots tend to struggle, but it’s at home in January, so they’ll beat up on a bad Miami team here.

WAS-PHI: Yes, the Eagles can cover without Jalen Hurts against a poor defense and backup QB.

ARI-LAR: I find it hard to believe that Sean McVay will really play starters even if he’s locked into the No. 6 seed. But the Cardinals are 50/50 to get completely blown out, so I’ll take his word on it and take the Rams to cover.

NYJ-BUF: We’ll see if Josh Allen dips after the first snap to keep his streak alive, but I think he should at least do the old Peyton Manning strategy in Indy where you play a drive or two before getting out of there. Plus, it’s the Jets, so he very well could watch James Cook pile up some rushing yards to win the rushing title, then set up a tush push TD to keep Allen’s streak of 40-TD seasons alive.

BAL-PIT: I wrote a detailed preview with a +1200 SGP in the picks piece above, but I honestly think the Metcalf suspension is going to doom them in the end. That decision to give the most WR-centric passer ever one good wideout all season, and then for him to be suspended while they face AFC North defenses in bad weather is just more bad luck for Rodgers, who I honestly think should come back in 2026 if the Steelers can find a way to get him another WR.

But I picked Ravens over Packers in the Super Bowl before this absurd season started, and I’m not backing down now on the Baltimore side of things. A run is still possible in this AFC but let’s see how healthy Lamar looks.

2025 NFL Stat Oddity: Week 17

~ Scott ~ 1 Comment

That was a very long Week 17 slate in the NFL that started with Josh Johnson on Christmas afternoon and ended with a classic shootout between the Bears and 49ers. It sets up three division title games in Week 18 in prime time and little of substance on Sunday afternoon.

We had nine games with a comeback opportunity, so we still haven’t had a week with 10 chances since Week 4. That has me a little worried about Atlanta’s ability to keep it close with the Rams on Monday night, but we’ll see as I still think that one has upset potential.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Bears at 49ers: Game of the Day

This 42-38 game summed up in one graphic:

The crazy part is the Bears didn’t have their best wideout in Rome Odunze, and D.J. Moore wasn’t 100%, and the two rookies (Luther Burden and Colston Loveland) dominated with 232 yards and 2 TDs). The 49ers didn’t have George Kittle, Ricky Pearsall wasn’t 100%, and they still lit it up too with Brock Purdy accounting for 5 total touchdowns (10 in prime time since Monday night) and 303 passing yards.

Not a bad shootout for a game that started with a pick-six. But I think it’s a game where the 49ers showed they could run the ball very well against a bad run defense as CMC had 140 rushing yards. Purdy played excellent, and it’s past time we act like he always needs George Kittle, Brandon Aiyuk, and Deebo Samuel to do this, because none of those three were available to him on Sunday night. Left tackle Trent Williams also left on the opening drive.

But I also think you have to give Caleb Williams and the Bears credit for hanging in there blow for blow when the 49ers are on a heater like this. It came down to the final snap, and the Bears were that close to extending their record to a seventh win this season when trailing in the final 2:00.

If we somehow got this as a playoff rematch, I think that’d be great. But definitely a strong night for the offensive minds of Ben Johnson and Kyle Shanahan. Now, the 49ers just have to beat Seattle (easier said than done) on Saturday night and they’ll be the No. 1 seed again.

My only warning would be that you see what it might look like without Nick Bosa and Fred Warner, though there is some hope Warner could return during the playoffs. But if Purdy is playing like this, maybe this can finally be San Francisco’s year.

Eagles at Bills: Familiar Trends

Throw in a lot of cold rain to make it even easier on these two strong pass defenses, and Sunday’s 13-12 final more or less played up to the season trends for the Eagles and Bills:

  • The Eagles started strong, taking a 13-0 lead into the locker room with Dallas Goedert adding another easy 1-yard touchdown to his season total.
  • Jalen Hurts then promptly went 0-for-7 passing in the second half with DeVonta Smith only coming close on a overturned catch one time.
  • Saquon Barkley was held to 68 yards on 19 carries, so his disappointing season continued more than the horrid Buffalo run defense did, but it helped that the Eagles weren’t completing passes.
  • Josh Allen took 5 sacks, including another contender for the worst sack of the year that knocked him out of field goal range as the Bills were shut out for 54 minutes.
  • James Cook was held to 77 total yards, and the Bills are now 0-4 this season when Cook is under 100 yards from scrimmage, averaging 14.8 points per game in those games.

But Philadelphia’s classic second-half no show on offense meant the defense had to hold up, and it almost broke. The Bills finally broke through with some big plays to Brandin Cooks and others (another hook-and-lateral) to get down the field twice, and despite the bad foot, Allen snuck in two touchdown runs in the final 5:11, including a 4th-and-goal from the 1 run with 0:08 left.

The Bills made the controversial decision to go for 2 and the win, and Allen completely whiffed on the throw to an open Shakir in the end zone. Game over; the Patriots win the AFC East. It’s no wonder they like to run the ball down there. That should have been an easy conversion, but the Bills have been missing these 2PC plays all season.

However, I have to defend the decision to go for the win instead of playing for overtime. I think it was absolutely the right call for Sunday’s circumstances:

  • The weather was horrible, which can make an extra point even harder, and it’s not like Buffalo’s kicker has been reliable on those, getting one blocked on the first touchdown. The Eagles have good blockers too.
  • Allen’s foot wasn’t 100% and that limits his effectiveness, so you don’t want to keep putting stress on that for more snaps in overtime.
  • The Bills realistically have to admit the Patriots are likely winning the AFC East with only a home game against Miami left, so it’s not like the division title or a No. 1 seed is really on the line here.

If this game was earlier in the season when you have less clarity about the playoff standings, I think you take them to overtime as your defense was playing outstanding and you’re at home. If the weather was better, I think you play on into overtime. If Allen was 100% healthy in a normal game, I think you go to overtime, which is a place he’s never actually won a game in the NFL yet.

But those were not the circumstances on Sunday in Week 17, so I don’t have an issue with the Bills doing what they did. I just have an issue with Allen badly missing the throw as they finally had a good play dialed up for one of those 2PCs.

The Eagles (11-5) still have an outside shot of the No. 2 seed over Chicago. The Bills (11-5) drop from No. 5 to No. 7, and with the Jets only left on the schedule, I think they’ll go to 12-5, the Texans beat the Colts to get to 12-5 and the No. 5 seed by virtue of head-to-head win, and the Chargers lose at Denver to fall to No. 7 seed at 11-6.

I had Buffalo lined up for No. 5 for a while, but seeing as how that now could be Derrick Henry and the Ravens in Baltimore, I’m not sure they want any part of that matchup in two weeks, so it’s possible that bad throw was strategic by Allen.

Then again, going to No. 6 and probably having to go to Jacksonville, a team playing as well as anyone, may not be a great start either for this team. But that’s where I see things trending for Buffalo.

Steelers at Browns: The Tomlin Special (The Last One?)

Once the Ravens beat the Packers on Saturday night, you could see the “Tomlin Special” coming from a mile away.

The Steelers were going to lose to a 3-12 Cleveland team to set up a winner-take-all game on SNF against the Ravens for the AFC North. And they’ll have to do it without D.K. Metcalf (suspended) and Darnell Washington (broke his arm on Sunday). Maybe without Calvin Austin too, or the three players who had 67% of Rodgers’ passing yards in Baltimore earlier this season.

I knew the Ravens being +800 value the other day to win the AFC North was too good to pass up. That’s not to say it’s a sure thing, because the Ravens have a pretty bad history of playing well in Pittsburgh, but the Steelers played Sunday with no real energy or care to want to wrap things up with a great opportunity against a bad team.

Instead, they gave up 10 early points to Shedeur Sanders before picking him off twice later. But even with nine possessions in a 4-to-7 point game the rest of the way, the Steelers never found the end zone even once. They pissed away drives with penalties, a pathetic 4th-and-1 deep pass to Scotty Miller, a Rodgers slide short of the sticks on third down, a bad sack to make a field goal too long, and forcing the ball repeatedly to washed-up wide receivers against a No. 1 pass defense with good corners playing man coverage.

And yes, the Steelers absolutely were too focused on Myles Garrett breaking the sack record. Garrett himself admitted it, and while you might expect him to say that given he was shutout by a makeshift offensive line, anyone who says this didn’t have a big negative impact on the game for Pittsburgh didn’t watch the game.

You could see it in the way they called plays at times, like not calling a single pass in a 13-9 game with 7:03 left and the ball at midfield. Three-and-out on runs. You could see it in the way Rodgers was letting go of the ball extra fast (usually well under 2.6 seconds), sometimes just throwing the ball away before he even dares left Garrett get a whiff of him.

That hampered the offense all day, and it’s a silly thing to worry about when Garrett gets to play Joe Burrow next week. The record is going to fall, but Rodgers sure looked like he’d be damned to be Brett Favre and get caught in a highlight reel forever for going down on the record-breaking sack.

Instead, he reverted to his factory settings by forcing outside throws to wide receivers instead of using the only players that are actually any good in this offense, the tight ends and running backs. Rodgers was 8-of-21 for 60 yards on passes to MVS, Scotty Miller, and Adam Thielen. Meanwhile, Pat Freiermuth had the big plays on the final drive, but he only finished with 63 yards on 3-of-5 passing.

Feed him more, except Rodgers just doesn’t like tight ends and will rather throw to washed-up wideouts he has no real chemistry with against maybe the worst defense to try that against this year.

Just buffoonery from start to finish as the Steelers finished with 6 points on 11 drives. Mike Tomlin is now 0-7 at Cleveland without Ben Roethlisberger, who was 12-2-1 at Cleveland.

I had a bad feeling the Metcalf suspension would lead to something like this, but I really didn’t think Rodgers would go with low-risk passes to MVS in the end zone (against Denzel Ward) on three straight passes with the game on the line. Metcalf would have been a target there. Freiermuth or Jonnu Smith should have been a target there. MVS stinks.

But Rodgers’ loyalty to “his guys” at wideout came back to bite them. A bad gameplan hurt them. Worrying too much about Garrett, who didn’t even generate that much pressure, hurt them.

Frankly, this team doesn’t deserve the postseason. They got their ninth win last week, and at this rate, I’ll be surprised if they get another this season.

Jaguars at Colts: Farewell Philip (Again?)

Hats off to the Jaguars for getting to 12-4 with a sweep of the Colts this month. This was a good back-and-forth game with Trevor Lawrence showing off his legs on two touchdown runs, and the pass defense held up against Philip Rivers for the most part (147 yards, 1 touchdown).

Rivers’ lone pick came in the fourth quarter of a tied game (had to play that tune one more time), and that actually led to Jacksonville’s game-winning field goal drive, which consisted of losing 3 yards after a stuffed Travis Etienne run and two incompletions by Lawrence. Yikes.

Rivers got the ball back in a 23-17 game with 18 seconds left, but instead of seeing him throw one last pick in a one-score game to perhaps end his career for good, a delay of game penalty on the defense moved the ball to the Jacksonville 48. Riley Leonard came off the bench with the stronger, younger arm to throw the Hail Mary, and that too was intercepted to end the game.

Rivers has no regrets about the comeback attempt even though the Colts were eliminated from the playoffs on Saturday with Houston’s win. He’ll go down as an all-time competitor and one of the only people crazy enough to try this after five years away from the game.

If this is the end of the road, he’ll now finish 36-84 (.300) at game-winning drive opportunities and 30-79 (.275) at comeback opportunities down one score.

Seahawks at Panthers: NFC South Shame Pt. 1

It’s not like I expected the Panthers to beat the Seahawks, but damn, have some pride at home. The Panthers were 5-1 ATS as a home underdog this year, but the best they could do in this one was make it 17-10 in the fourth quarter after a Bryce Young touchdown run.

It’s a good thing he had that run because he finished with 54 passing yards on 24 attempts, or 40 yards on 26 plays if you add his sacks.

But a huge facemask penalty got the Seahawks out of a 3rd-and-21 situation, and they punched in another score to go up 20-10. Young took consecutive sacks before throwing a 5-yard pass on 4th-and-17, leading to a 25-yard touchdown drive by the Seahawks to ice it at 27-10.

All three of Seattle’s touchdown drives started inside the Carolina 30 in the second half, taking advantage of Carolina’s mistakes on offense. This game was winnable despite the final score, but it really looks like no one wants to take the NFC South this year.

Their division title game should end in a tie, which would still give it to the Panthers.

Buccaneers at Dolphins: NFC South Shame Pt. 2

This Tampa Bay collapse needs studied. The Dolphins came in ranked No. 26 against the run and the Bucs just couldn’t get anything going on the ground. It doesn’t help when Tristan Wirfs was inactive at tackle. But Baker Mayfield probably has the best 4-WR group in the NFL, and yet they were stuck on 10 points with him throwing two picks deep into this one before a last-minute Mike Evans touchdown led to a failed onside kick in a 20-17 loss.

Quinn Ewers had a couple of touchdown passes to lesser-known Miami targets for the rookie’s first win. The running game was solid. Miami will likely finish 7-10, which sounds like the typical Miami season in the 21st century.

Giants at Raiders: The Toilet Bowl

Both teams had lost nine in a row, but the Raiders would have been dumb to win this game and hand the Giants the No. 1 pick in the draft. The Raiders definitely need it more as they have a quarterback need the Giants don’t with Jaxson Dart rushing for two more scores in this 34-10 rout as Geno Smith took another beating behind his line.

The No. 1 pick isn’t locked up for the Raiders yet, and the Chiefs would probably be wise to not let them secure it next week either. Then again, it’s not like there looks to be a real QB prize in the 2026 draft.

Cardinals at Bengals: Ho-Hum

Go figure, it took Jacoby Brissett deep into garbage time (trailed by 30 points at the two-minute warning) to finally break 200 yards passing and throw his second touchdown of the day against the Bengals in a 37-14 loss that was never really competitive.

Just glad to say I was right that Ja’Marr Chase and Trey McBride finding the end zone were the only picks you needed from this otherwise fruitless endeavor between losing teams.

Patriots at Jets: Seriously, Just End the Season

The Patriots scored six straight touchdowns to start their 42-10 rout of the Jets, another tip in the cap for offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels, who has been behind some of those all-time drubbings in NFL history.

Speaking of history, the 2025 Jets have done it. In 16 games, they’ve let quarterbacks throw 32 touchdowns and 0 interceptions after a 5-piece from Drake Maye on Sunday. That’s two weeks after Trevor Lawrence had six total touchdowns on this defense.

I know Aaron Glenn is going to get excuses that they traded two of his best defenders, but this shit was rotten from Week 1 and has only gotten worse. I wouldn’t criticize the Jets if they made him a one-and-done coach, but I doubt that will happen no matter how brutal this 3-win season has gone.

Saints at Titans: Ending 2025 on a High Note

I know people don’t care about these teams this season, but I think it was a very good showing for both Tyler Shough and Cam Ward, and a game that should have their fans excited about what can happen in 2026 with more seasoning from Shough and better coaching/talent around Ward.

But Shough got the best of this matchup as he added another 300-yard passing game and comeback win to his resume. In such a down year for rookies, I’m very serious about voting him for OROY. Just finish strong next week.

Texans at Chargers: Houston Outlasts Them

Going back to Saturday quickly, I was most excited about this game and I think it delivered a playoff atmosphere with a tough, physical grind after some early explosives from Houston’s offense made it 14-0 in the blink of an eye.

But I thought Justin Herbert’s teammates let him down again with the tipped pick in the red zone, and Dicker the Kicker turned into Nate Kaeding in a big game. This guy is supposed to be perfect from inside 40 yards, yet he missed one from 40 and an extra point, costing the Chargers 4 points in a game they lost by, yep, 4 points. And don’t act like I haven’t forgotten about the missed field goal in the Jacksonville playoff loss. I see what this kicker is up to. Can’t trust him.

But the Texans held on for the second week in a row by getting a huge defensive penalty to help them run out the clock. I’m not sure Chargers fans can complain much about that illegal contact that wiped out a third-down sack of Stroud. The Chargers also had two defensive penalties wipe out huge sacks on Herbert on their previous drive to score a touchdown.

This game is a pretty good sign that the Texans are more dangerous than the Chargers in the playoffs because of their defense and their offensive line doesn’t have turnstiles at offensive tackle. But I also think it helped  expose that the Houston offense is still likely to come up short before a Super Bowl appearance to keep this team out of the big game.

Crazy stat: Houston has never been a wild card team. All eight playoff appearances for the Texans have come as the AFC South winner, so we’ll see how that shakes out if Jacksonville wraps this division up on Sunday.

Ravens at Packers: King Henry Reigns Supreme

For a game with two backup quarterbacks, there were a lot of points and quality drive engineering between the Packers and Ravens on Saturday night. While the Ravens leaned on Derrick Henry, who dominated with 216 yards and 4 touchdowns, it was the Packers who surprisingly couldn’t run at all and leaned on Malik Willis to throw for 288 yards and rush for 60 yards and 2 touchdowns. Sadly, a late injury knocked him out and Clayton Tune was intercepted on a tipped ball.

But I think it’s clear that Matt LaFleur is going to help Willis get paid a ton of money from a team to be their starter in 2026 or 2027, a miraculous coaching job with a player who couldn’t throw for 100 yards in any of his starts as a rookie on the 2022 Titans. Maybe even his brother Mike LaFleur, the Rams offensive coordinator, will be hired by a team to make Willis work out as well as his brother has.

Good luck with that, but it was an impressive game from him on Saturday night. They didn’t lose this game because Jordan Love (concussion) was out. They lost because their defense, missing Micah Parsons, was pathetic, a familiar tune in Green Bay in big games.

The Packers are now 0-3 this year when they don’t punt in a game, which has never been done before in a season. The rest of the NFL is 10-0 this year. Green Bay is just the 10th team since 1950 to lose a game by at least 17 points without punting.

Next week: I get to look back at how bad my predictions were for this crazy season. We get the sacrificial lamb game first on Saturday to determine the No. 4 seed in the NFC. We get the No. 1 seed game at night, then it’s a pretty bland Sunday afternoon slate leading up to Ravens vs. Steelers for the AFC North.

2025 NFL Stat Oddity: Week 16

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

I cannot recall an NFL season that felt this wide open as it does in 2025. Big leads don’t feel safe no matter who you’re playing, and even for the teams looking at the wild card paths to the Super Bowl, there’s no juggernaut or historic team out there that I’ll say they can’t beat on the road in January.

That last part is the important one. In the past years I’ve covered, you always had some team with Brady, Manning, or Mahomes that you just wouldn’t expect to ever lose to a low seed like the 2016 Texans (Brock Osweiler year), 2020 Browns (no defense), or when the 2023 Steelers snuck in with Mason Rudolph.

But not this year.

  • Not when you can watch the Seahawks’ version of Sam Darnold overcome his kryptonite (Rams) with a 16-point comeback win on Thursday night in what I called the Game of the Year this weekend. He has a great defense backing him up.
  • Not when the Bears can wipe out a 10-point deficit in the last 5:00 to beat Green Bay in overtime, and we’ve already seen them run over the Eagles in Philly.
  • Not when the Eagles are playing sound defense, the running game is starting to pick things up, and you can at least argue they’ve been to the Super Bowl twice since 2022 and big-game experience matters.
  • Not when the Panthers have already upset the Packers, Rams, Buccaneers, etc. and should have won in Philadelphia last year (Xavier Legette drop) as Bryce Young turns into Steve Young in big moments.
  • Not when the Rams should probably be 15-0 if not for blowing every loss in inexplicable fashion.
  • Not when the 49ers have a path to the No. 1 seed that includes sweeping Darnold in Week 18 (a la how Detroit did last year) and have the Super Bowl at home this year.
  • Not when the Packers – okay, this one is probably a stretch without Micah Parsons and Tucker Kraft. But if Jordan Love can return on Saturday…

But we’re used to seeing the NFC offer new contenders. What about the AFC that’s been dominated by quarterback stability? Well, that’s simply not the case this year as Sunday proved again:

  • The Broncos (12-3) saw their 11-game winning streak snapped in impressive fashion by Jacksonville, the first bad game Denver’s played all year. Still in line for the No. 1 seed though.
  • The Patriots (12-3) are right on Denver’s heels and that big comeback win in Baltimore should do wonders for Drake Maye’s confidence and development in games like this.
  • The Jaguars (11-4) have been red hot since the bye week, they can score 25+ every week, and they get turnovers on defense. What’s really stopping Trevor Lawrence from going on an Eli/Flacco/Foles type of run?
  • The Steelers (9-6) always flop in the postseason, but I think this season has been different in several areas we’ll get into the next few weeks. If they do have to play the Bills in the wild card and can find a way past that one, they have dark horse potential with Aaron Rodgers playing his best ball at the right moment.
  • The Chargers (11-4) still have a shot to win the AFC West by beating Houston and Denver, and if they can do that behind Justin Herbert and Jim Harbaugh, who can’t they beat in this AFC?
  • The Bills (11-4) may be terrible at stopping the run, but they stop the pass, they can run the ball too, they put up points, and they have big-game experience and have done well against basically every team but the Chiefs (not in the picture this year) over the years.
  • The Texans (10-5) struggling with the Raiders may give you pause, but they have the best defense in the NFL this year and could be a problem for anyone they face with a playoff win in each of the last two seasons.

There are usually several playoff teams you can just write off for having a pathetic defense or rookie/backup quarterback. But that’s not going to be the case this year, and I don’t think there’s any “chalk” matchup here. I could be sold on 49ers vs. Texans in Super Bowl 60 just as easily I could be told Eagles vs. Bills in Week 17 is a Super Bowl preview, or even Patriots vs. Rams for the third time this century

This must be that “parity” people speak of but never really get like this. I’m not sure if this will lead to me doing more research than usual in January, always my busiest month of the year, or if I’ll be inclined to do less and just sit back and let this madness unfold since so many of these teams don’t have a track record to rely on.

All I know is just about every time someone tries to anoint a team as the one to beat this year, they usually show you with the quickness that they are very beatable. Even if they’re up double digits late in the game.

But Week 16 was a memorable one with all three of the games with late lead changes coming in the prime-time slots. Overall, we had 9 games with a comeback opportunity, and we’ll see if Colts-49ers can give us 10 in a week for the first time since Week 4.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Patriots at Ravens: Sunday’s Best

It was many weeks ago when I called my shot that Drake Maye would have his first 300-yard passing game in the NFL against Baltimore in Week 16. Then as the game was approaching this week, I had the Drake Maye MVP Parlay that hit with Stafford’s loss against Seattle starting it on Thursday, and I wrote how the Ravens have a history of letting young passers set career highs in passing yards against them recently.

Then right before the game, I made my pick:

This wasn’t an endorsement of Maye as much as it was I know how John Harbaugh’s Ravens play, and I know you can’t trust them in games like this, especially in 2025. Sure enough, you could see early on that Maye had big plays coming against this secondary. He just had to control his turnovers as he turned it over twice in scoring range early on.

But the Ravens lost Lamar Jackson in the first half to a back injury, putting Tyler Huntley under the microscope for the rest of the night in an important game. He did help lead two touchdown drives to give the Ravens a 24-13 lead with 12:50 left, but we’ve seen this movie before with Baltimore.

Maye answered with a great 37-yard touchdown pass to Kyle Williams to get over 300 yards, then the Ravens ignored using Derrick Henry on the ensuing drive and punted. Maye had a deep ball that should have been caught by Boutte, but he dropped it on the ground after he was interfered with on the play, and I can’t believe there wasn’t a flag there. Go figure, I lost a good parlay on this game because he didn’t get yards there.

That was a first-down play that led to some critical snaps later. On third down, Maye’s pass was nearly intercepted by Nate Wiggins, but then Maye threaded the needle on 4th-and-2 to Stefon Diggs for a big 21-yard completion. The defense doesn’t make you pay on a pick and you come back and finish the game-winning drive. That sounds very Brady-esque by Maye.

Two plays later, Rhamondre Stevenson finished the drive with a 21-yard touchdown run with 2:07 left. Maye’s defense needed to complete the comeback, and it did its job by forcing Zay Flowers to fumble two plays into the ensuing drive. Maye had a 16-yard keeper run to ice his first 4QC/GWD in the NFL, an 11-point comeback in the fourth, and that career-high line of 380 passing yards. That’s a memorable first comeback.

At 12-3, the Patriots can still think about 14-3 and a potential No. 1 seed if Denver loses again. I’m not convinced this game should make Maye the MVP since Baltimore just isn’t Baltimore anymore, but it keeps him firmly in the running with Stafford, who can still slip up in Atlanta next Monday night.

But this win should give Maye and the Patriots a lot of confidence that they can win this type of game where he had 57 of the team’s 70 action plays. That’s MVP quarterback-y stuff.

Steelers at Lions: It’s All Over Now, Baby Blue

This game finished 29-24, hitting the over (52.5), but that’s a miracle when you consider how each half started.

The Steelers took a 3-0 lead after the first quarter, scoring no more than 7 points in the opening quarter for the 67th game in a row including playoffs, the longest streak since WWII. They were able to hold the Lions to no points after facing a 1st-and-goal at the 4 by stopping a Jared Goff pass on 4th-and-3 from the 3, a sign of things to come.

But instead of Detroit taking a 10-3 lead into halftime, Kenneth Gainwell made a Catch of the Year candidate when he was laying down and caught a deep pass, getting up untouched and racing to the end zone to complete a 45-yard game-tying touchdown with 0:02 left in the half.

The Steelers ended up winning the third quarter by a 2-0 score, sacking Goff in the end zone for a safety after Darnell Washington had fumbled in the red zone. Then Jaylen Warren was able to rip off two 45-yard touchdown runs in the fourth quarter, the second giving the Steelers a 29-17 lead with 6:41 left.

But the Lions quickly got one touchdown, and similar to the Ireland game where the Steelers nearly blew a 17-point lead in quick fashion, they almost coughed this one up with poor clock management in the four-minute offense. They settled for a 37-yard field goal with 2:09 left, which should have been automatic for Chris Boswell, but he missed it off the right upright. Inexcusable for one of the game’s best.

Now 29-24, it sure looked like the Steelers were going to blow this one by giving up a late touchdown and they didn’t even have any timeouts left to answer. There was a game-saving DPI penalty on 4th-and-2 to keep the game alive, and sure enough, Goff had the Lions on a 1st-and-goal at the 1 with 25 seconds left.

But that’s when it got interesting and heavy on the officials. Amon-Ra St. Brown caught a 1-yard touchdown, but it was negated for a pick play called on Isaac TeSlaa. It looked like the right call as he was blocking more than 1 yard past the line, but it’s admittedly not something that always gets called. That was huge cause it backed the Lions up to their 11 with little time left, then a false start had them at the 16.

After some Goff incompletions, it came down to 4th-and-goal from the 9. A short pass to St. Brown was tackled quickly, but he was allowed to lateral the ball back to Goff, who dove into the end zone for what Lions fans thought was a walk-off touchdown in a 30-29 final.

After some record-long discussions about the play, it was determined to be offensive pass interference on Brown for pushing off on Jalen Ramsey, and that ends the game there. No replay of the down for an offensive penalty, and Goff’s touchdown dive simply doesn’t count. Game over, and when the ref said game over, I still wasn’t 100% sure what the final score was supposed to be.

But it looks like they got the calls right, and the Steelers prevailed 29-24, clinching their record 22nd-straight season with a non-losing record, moving past the 1965-85 Cowboys for good. They also move a step closer to winning the AFC North for the first time since 2020.

Meanwhile, Detroit has gone from 15-2 to 8-7 this year and needs to win out while the Packers need to lose out just for the Lions to return as a No. 7 seed. Crazy year for an offense that came into this one leading the league in scoring and having the fewest turnovers (8) of any offense despite losing coordinator Ben Johnson to the No. 1 Bears in the NFC North.

But even in this game, you could see some cracks in Dan Campbell’s offense as they’re missing Sam LaPorta, a tight end who could have been their target on those failed drives early and late in the game. They also just don’t have the line anymore to dominate on the ground. The running backs had 11 carries for 16 yards, which is crazy work against a Pittsburgh run defense that has allowed over 200 rushing yards to the Ravens and Bills recently. Did the return of rookie Derrick Harmon cause that big of a shift in run defense success? That’s hard to say.

This is also why these Steelers might actually be a little different this year with Aaron Rodgers playing his best ball right now, and the defense has rose to the occasion a few times in a game like this and when they turned the Colts (6) and Patriots (5) over 11 times combined in upset wins.

It doesn’t feel like Tomlin is ever leaving Pittsburgh until he wants to leave, but the Steelers have won 3-0 since “Fire Tomlin!” chants rained down at home against Buffalo. That could end up being the 5-4 rematch on wild card weekend too with Tomlin getting a chance to redeem himself and win his first playoff game since the 2016 season.

Sure, beating Buffalo in the wild card sounds crazy, but when has this 2025 NFL season ever made sense?

Granted, a long suspension for D.K. Metcalf after he punched at a fan in the crowd could be a huge setback here as Rodgers’ only reliable wideout. I’m not sure what the precedent is there, but I could see a 1-game suspension for that. I don’t think it should be more since he didn’t do more than the one punch/slap attempt. He didn’t go full Ron Artest in Detroit (Malice at the Palace). But that’ll be a story to keep an eye on this week as the Steelers need Metcalf for the playoff push.

Buccaneers at Panthers: Does Todd Bowles Survive This?

Man, if not for the Cardinals, the Buccaneers would be winless since Week 9’s bye week. That’s still pretty bad for a team that was 5-1 and has only gotten healthier at receiver and running back. But Baker Mayfield needed a big 40-yard pass to Emeka Egbuka just to break 100 passing yards late in the fourth quarter.

Then down 23-20 late, he was not on the same page with Mike Evans, who cut in while Baker threw the out, and it ended up as a game-ending interception that gives the Panthers the NFC South lead with two weeks to go. The Bucs are just 7-8 now.

I’m just waiting for something big to come out of this decline like finding out Mayfield tore something against the 49ers and tried to play injured, or something indecent has happened with the coaching staff and caused a rift between Todd Bowles and the coordinator. Just something to explain how this team can keep failing to execute after they were money early in the season under pressure.

As for Carolina, it’s a 12th game-winning drive for Bryce Young and his sixth this season. He didn’t have a huge game, but neither did his running game, and he had a timely 34-yard completion on the game-winning field goal drive.

The only positive for Tampa Bay is it still has the Week 18 rematch at home. That’s probably why the Bucs still have -170 odds to win the NFC South. But I don’t know how you can trust a team that’s been so poor for two months now.

Jaguars at Broncos: Mile High Can’t Touch Duuuuuval

I didn’t see a ton of this game on Sunday. But while I liked the Jaguars (+3.5) to cover, I still thought it’d be a very tight game won by Denver. Instead, it’s the first bad game the Broncos have played all year as their 11-game win streak started after losing on last-second field goals to the Colts and Chargers in September.

The Broncos sacked Trevor Lawrence five times, but once again he excelled with the receivers that have become his main guys under Liam Coen like Parker Washington and Jakobi Meyers. Brian Thomas Jr. only had 18 yards in this game, but that development has been the surprise of the season for the Jaguars, who are now 11-4.

Bo Nix threw for 352 yards, but he lost a fumble late in the third quarter when it was 31-17, and he threw a bad pick on 4th-and-2 when it was 34-20 in the fourth quarter. I saw people clowning Sean Payton, who I am openly not a big fan of over the years, for kicking the 21-yard field goal on 4th-and-3 on the previous drive when it was 34-17.

I think Payton made the right call as I believe you need to keep extending the game and not put your players in “convert this or the game is already over” situations. Keep the pressure on the other team instead, and the Broncos really got what they wanted. They made it a 14-point game, you always  needed the field goal anyway at some point down 17, and now you get the quick three-and-out and the ball back in a 34-20 game with 9:28 left.

But that’s when the fourth-down pick happened, and from there it was basically over even though Denver got it back with 4:14 and the same score. Just no fourth-quarter magic this week as Jacksonville played very well.

If you can win at Denver, you might be able to win anywhere in this season’s AFC. A certain 19-point lead against a certain long-necked backup quarterback is the only thing stopping the Jaguars from having an 8-game winning streak since the bye.

But the Denver streak is over and the AFC West is in jeopardy, let alone that No. 1 seed they seemed to be cruising to.

Bills at Browns: Want to See the Worst Sacks of the Season?

The highly ranked pass defenses of the Browns and Bills did not disappoint in this game. While both defenses would love to face a pass instead of a run, it was compounded by how well the Bills did on the ground early with James Cook ripping off a 44-yard touchdown run on the opening drive.

But with barely over a minute left in the half, Josh Allen took the worst sack of his career that also put his team’s season in jeopardy after he injured his ankle by running backwards from his own 23 to take a 22-yard sack back at his 1 to almost give up a safety. It looked so bad that it almost looked like Garrett paid Allen to do that to set him up for an easy sack, and the scorers agreed as they somehow gave Garrett half a sack on the play.

Garrett didn’t get a full sack, but the Bills only managed a 2-yard field goal drive in the whole second half. Allen was off on some throws, and sometimes his tight ends didn’t complete the catches as the passing game just never got it going.

Shedeur Sanders had some great scrambles in the game, but he also fell victim to bad, deep sacks with the game on the line. He lost 13 yards on a 4th-and-2 sack in a 23-20 game in the fourth quarter. Then after getting the ball back, he took another sack, then got called for intentional grounding to avoid another that brought up 3rd-and-32. After a deep incompletion, Sanders was stuck facing 4th-and-32 from his own 1 with 1:49 left.

There’s no man’s land, and then there’s whatever the fvck that was. With two timeouts left, you almost want to go for it. Three timeouts would make it easier to justify the punt. But Sanders had almost no room to operate in the end zone, and needing 32 yards, you really risk giving up a safety and possession there. You’re almost certain to fail barring a cheap foul, so punting is probably the best thing you could do in that impossible spot.

Allen finally put the game away with an 8-yard pass and QB sneak on 3rd-and-1. But that was a tough win for the Bills, who were a big 10.5-point road favorite. It continues the trend where Allen just doesn’t put up many yards (or points or both) on the road this year, and given the Patriots are close to winning the AFC East, it could be all road games for him to get to the Super Bowl. Not ideal.

But the Bills play great defense in the big spots and they now have seven defensive saves (stops when leading by one score in the fourth quarter) and no blown leads in 2025. Will be interesting to see how they fare against the Eagles next week, a team with more experience and better quarterback play (usually) than the Browns have.

Bengals at Dolphins: Free of Tua, Not Free of a Bad Defense

I give Mike McDaniel and Miami credit for doing the right thing, maybe the overdue thing, and benching Tua Tagovailoa, effectively ending his reign (of terror) with the Dolphins. Quinn Ewers did some solid things early with the running game doing great against a poor Cincinnati defense, but similar to last week in Pittsburgh, the game got completely away from the Dolphins in the third quarter.

Two turnovers and a fourth-down stop set up three short fields for touchdowns by Joe Burrow and the Bengals, who won 45-21. I’m sure that had Tua smirking from the bench, but this team has a better shot of dragging itself out of purgatory by moving on from him. Ewers probably won’t be the long-term answer, but at least they get a look at him in these final games.

Raiders at Texans: Hope for Ashton Jeanty

It didn’t take long for the Houston defense to make its presence felt by intercepting a poor throw from Geno Smith for a pick-six. But Houston’s offense was sputtering, and Ashton Jeanty showed that not even the league’s best defense can stop him from scoring touchdowns of 60 and 51 yards on a pass and a big run late in the fourth quarter.

That had the Texans pressing at home as a 14.5-point favorite to a terrible team that’s been shutout 31-0 twice this year. But I thought Pete Carroll’s team blew it in two spots here:

  • Down 16-14 in the fourth quarter, why are you punting on 4th-and-3 at the Houston 46? Your season is long over. Go for it. You have nothing to lose. The Texans ended up driving 88 yards for a long touchdown drive to make it a 23-14 game. Again, if the worst-case scenario (giving up a TD) happens, you at least would rather it happens quicker on a shorter field than for a long drive like that.
  • Then down 23-21, the Raiders had a great shot to force a 3-and-out and get the ball back right away for a game-winning field goal march, but the defense was penalized for pass interference on 3rd-and-20 from the Houston 7. Brutal. Stroud converted a few more first downs and ran out the final 5:19 to win 23-21.

So, I think this scare throws some cold water on the Houston run to the playoffs. But they are going to be a tough out for anyone they play. And they won’t have to face Jeanty in January. Maybe never if the Raiders don’t get their shit together.

Vikings at Giants: Rough Day at the Office

I knew I liked the under on Jaxson Dart’s passing props against a complex defense like Minnesota, but God damn. Dart finished the game and still finished just 7-of-13 passing for 33 yards with 5 sacks, a deflected pick, and 2 runs for 7 yards. For some reason, it took 17 snaps from scrimmage for the Giants before Dart threw an actual pass in this game.

J.J. McCarthy had a rough afternoon too that wasn’t always his fault as he had a tipped pick. He also got away with a pick-six after Abdul Carter lined up offsides. D’oh.

But McCarthy left another game injured, and Max Brosmer ended up converting a 3rd-and-17 with a great catch by Justin Jefferson to lead to a game-winning field goal in a 16-13 final. Dart had his chance to answer but was sacked on fourth down at midfield.

So, Brosmer has a game-winning drive in the NFL before Dart…

Falcons at Cardinals: More Desert Doom

Props to the Atlanta defense for doing probably the best job of anyone against Jacoby Brissett this year. They held him to 203 yards, had a game-sealing interception, only one touchdown pass, and they held Trey McBride to 27 yards in the 26-19 win.

Not even Atlanta’s historic brand of choking could help Brissett complete the late 10-point comeback. His 7-27 (.206) record at game-winning drive opportunities is the worst among active starters.

Chiefs at Titans: Going Out Sad

People will say the Chiefs (6-9) just tanked after getting eliminated from the playoffs last week, and maybe there’s some truth to that. But aside from adding Rashee Rice and Tyquan Thornton to this week’s injury report, it’s largely the same roster they’ve been struggling with the last few weeks minus Patrick Mahomes at quarterback.

In a 26-9 loss to Tennessee, one of the worst teams this year, the Chiefs averaged just 14.4 yards per drive and scored 9 points on 10 possessions. They may have lost Gardner Minshew to a torn ACL too, setting up Christmas night with Oladokun against the Denver defense. Sounds fun.

But quarterback injuries aside, the Chiefs ran through many of their same issues from the whole season: Bad penalties, bad special teams penalties like lining up offsides on a field goal on 4th-and-1, no running game, poor on third down, etc.

For as bad as the Chiefs were in an infamous 27-3 loss in Tennessee in 2021, a 12-5 team that earned the No. 1 seed, the Chiefs still averaged 37.5 yards per drive that day behind Mahomes. This? This is unwatchable, and it’s hard to believe we’re likely going to see the final games of Travis Kelce’s career play out this way.

Just going out sad.

Chargers at Cowboys: Receivers + Defense

One of my favorite underdog picks this week was the Chargers (+2.5) on the road in Dallas. Why? I knew Justin Herbert would roast that defense, and he sure did with 300 passing yards, no sacks, 3 total touchdowns, and he had a key 34-yard scramble on third down in the fourth quarter when the Chargers led 24-17. That led to a field goal and helped open up a big lead.

The Cowboys had some big strikes early for Dak Prescott’s offense, but after they were already eliminated on Saturday by Philadelphia’s win, they didn’t show up for the rest of the game, getting blanked in another second half in the 34-17 loss.

But it was so fitting to see George Pickens put up big numbers in a game that no longer mattered after he did so little in the previous two losses to the Lions and Vikings. Meanwhile, the Chargers came in with good receivers and a sound defense to take it to the Cowboys. Just better team building and coaching all around for the Chargers.

Jets at Saints: No Picks Again

With two games left against Drake Maye and Josh Allen, we really could see the 2025 Jets get through a full 17-game season without the defense getting a single interception. That’s unfathomable if you watched all the tipped balls getting picked off on Sunday. That kind of fluke play should be easy for the Jets to get on the board at least once in 15 games, but it’s never happened for Aaron Glenn’s unit.

Even though the Saints won 29-6, rookie Tyler Shough threw 49 passes for a season-high 308 yards as Kellen Moore was helping him get those reps in. The Saints are going to be one of the trendiest division winner picks in 2026, and I totally get it.

But the Jets are not a good litmus test for anything.

Eagles at Commanders: The NFC East Streak Is Over

A quick peek back to Saturday’s games, one of the wildest streaks in the 32-game era is over, and there’s a great chance we never see it again. The Eagles have repeated as NFC East champs, the first team to do so since the Eagles in 2001-04.

Every other division’s had at least two repeat winners in that time. The longest active drought is one year, and that might actually only go up to two years if the Seahawks can win the NFC West from the Rams, which they are favored to do now. The whole AFC is on the verge of a new winner this year. The NFC North is likely slipping from Detroit, and the Bucs are losing control of the NFC South. That just leaves Philly as the lone repeat with the Rams still alive too.

It was always the shared quarterback dominance (and quarterback injuries) that allowed this NFC East streak to go on from 2005-2024. One year it’d be Eli Manning, the next it’d be Donovan McNabb, then Tony Romo, or the random year by RG3 or Kirk Cousins.

This was supposed to be Jayden Daniels’ year after reaching the NFC Championship Game with the greatest rookie season ever. But the Commanders limped into Saturday’s game with 4 wins, then lost Marcus Mariota in the third quarter. That led to Josh Johnson playing, and after his pick, the Eagles had no problems piling on some touchdowns to cover the spread and end this division race.

Just another rough year for Washington, but hopefully 2024 won’t be an outlier for Daniels.

Packers at Bears: Shades of the 2014 NFC Championship Game

We had a few island games where a starting quarterback was knocked out with an injury. Jordan Love’s concussion was a brutal hit and his presence was missed, but I thought Malik Willis played well given the Packers were built to throw that night with only two tight ends active and Josh Jacobs wasn’t 100% healthy.

But the Bears really stole this one as they typically do when they’re having their successful years. They were slow to get their field goal in before the two-minute warning in a 10-point game, which was bad, but then Brandon Bostick Romeo Doubs flubbed the onside kick recovery, and the Bears were able to get it back at midfield with plenty of time left.

So, just like two weeks ago, Caleb Williams had the ball in a 7-point game against the Packers. This time, he got the touchdown pass on 4th down, and I would have swore Ben Johnson would go for 2 with 24 seconds left, but the presence of Willis in the game instead of Love likely made him settle for overtime, which isn’t such a bad deal these days.

Then when you win the coin toss, I think kicking first is an easy choice in this matchup. Make Malik Willis drive down the field for a touchdown using three conventional downs, and even that won’t end the game. Good luck to him doing it too, and I also like the prospects of Caleb getting all four downs to work the ball down the field as he can be erratic and needs the extra down.

But it didn’t even come down to that as the Packers, much like the Bears early in the game, botched their fourth-down snap at the Chicago 36 after bypassing on a long field goal on a windy night. That was really the right call, but they just blew the snap.

Then in the other play that looked just like the 2014 NFC Championship Game when the Packers lost in OT at Seattle, Williams uncorked a top throw of the whole season with his 46-yard touchdown to D.J. Moore in good coverage in the end zone to end the game.

That gives the 2025 Bears a record six wins in one season after trailing in the final 2:00 of the fourth quarter. Insane stuff, and yeah, it’s probably going to bite them in the ass next year, but that can wait until then. They’re in position for the No. 2 seed, and it’s possible we see round 3 of this matchup in a few weeks.

I’d be more than content with that.

Next week: Serves the NFL right for trying to steal Christmas from the NBA with a bad triple-header where 5/6 teams likely miss the playoffs. But the Saturday lineup is excellent with Texans-Chargers and Ravens-Packers like little playoff games. Just might be Tyler Huntley vs. Malik Willis in that second one. Sunday has upset potential with Seahawks at Panthers, Jags at Colts, and we’ll see if Myles Garrett can break sack record vs. Steelers. Eagles-Bills is the late window choice, and it’s not quite as big of a game as expected. Bears-49ers on SNF is solid even though both teams have clinched a playoff spot already. MNF (Rams-Falcons) is basically to see if Stafford can solidify MVP or falter badly and lose it against that pass rush.

NFL 2025 Week 15 Predictions: The Return of Philip Rivers Edition

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This 2025 NFL season has been crazy enough as is, but to bring back a 44-year-old Philip Rivers after five years away from the game? He’s literally a semifinalist for the 2026 HOF class at the moment. Then to call him up on a short week against an elite defense like Seattle? Good luck with that, but I’m not sure I’ve ever had more of a morbid curiosity in seeing how a game plays out than that one.

But beyond Rivers’ return, it is a fascinating week when you have multiple home underdogs who are on 10-game winning streaks in the Patriots and Broncos. Not only that, but they’re playing teams in the Bills and Packers who have some really bad losses as big favorites against the spread this season. Not to mention the Patriots already beat Buffalo in Buffalo.

Throw in the 6-7 Chiefs still being a 5.5-point favorite despite losing two in a row and losing to the 9-4 Chargers in Week 1, and I’m not sure if it’s the oddsmakers accurately assessing these new contenders in 2025, or if people are just betting with their hearts from last year and not adjusting to what’s going on this year.

Who’s right? Who’s actually a good team in 2025? It’s hard to say because it really does feel like a season where anyone can beat anybody, and these teams have four weeks to figure things out before the playoffs.

This Week’s Articles

2025 NFL Award Races: Final Quarter Look at Stafford vs. Maye for MVP, Coach of the Year, and the Myles Garrett vs. Micah Parsons Debate
2025 NFL Quarterback Rankings Week 15: The Texans May Have Ended the Postseason Streak for Patrick Mahomes After Chiefs Drop the Ball
https://www.365scores.com/news/scotts-seven-nfl-picks-week-15-2025

In looking at the NFL awards going into the final quarter, I see a vision for how the MVP can be decided in Week 16, Myles Garrett vs. Micah Parsons for DPOY, and 6 coaches who can have a case for Coach of the Year. But if Philip Rivers plays well, he’s a lock for Comeback Player of the Year, something I didn’t even have time to consider when I wrote that Monday night.

As for the QB rankings, Patrick Mahomes undoubtedly was let down by drops more on Sunday night than any other game in his career.

For Week 15 picks, I have parlays for Bills-Patriots, Chargers-Chiefs, Dolphins-Steelers, and yes, a Philip Rivers-themed SGP.

NFL Week 15 Predictions

I had the Falcons covering on TNF, but what a crazy 14-point comeback that was. Tampa really blew multiple opportunities for game-ending fumble recoveries, and Baker Mayfield missed that game-sealing throw on 2nd-and-14. Just another brutal loss for the Bucs (7-7), another common division winner having a down year.

NYJ-JAX: Don’t love the Jags with such a huge spread but Brady Cook isn’t any good, right?

ARI-HOU: There’s a decent chance Jacoby Brissett puts up a better stat line against Houston than Allen and Mahomes did. But I don’t think Houston scores enough to cover the spread, but the Texans will win.

BUF-NE: I’m taking the Bills to remind NE who’s run this division since 2020. A lot of bad turnovers for the Bills in the first matchup but the defense played fine for a half. Stefon Diggs carried the passing game for NE. I think Buffalo clamps down and gets the split even if the Patriots are still winning the AFC East this year.

LAC-KC: I can’t trust the Chiefs to cover right now, especially not 5.5. Both QBs don’t have their starting OTs, but the Chiefs better find a way to get a pass rush going against the Chargers’ joke of a line. This is basically their last stand for this season mattering.

LV-PHI: Give me Kenny Pickett to cover the spread in a low-scoring game. But it sure would be hilarious if he led a GWD in Philly.

BAL-CIN: I prefer the over more than the spread here. But I think the Ravens protect the ball far better than on Thanksgiving and put up their share of points on the Bengals, who just can’t stop anyone again.

WAS-NYG: Division games are always weird but I think Jaxson Dart can win by 3 against a poor defense that J.J. McCarthy beat 31-0.

CLE-CHI: Just feels like a sloppy game where Caleb Williams might need to lead a GWD to get the win by 1-7.

TEN-SF: Don’t believe the Titans after last week’s win. I think the 49ers win by 14+

DET-LAR: Rams will play well at home while the Lions won’t be able to keep up with that offense. Not enough DBs to handle Puka and Davante.

CAR-NO: Saints could certainly pull off another upset, but I think Carolina makes the most of another Tampa loss and gets the win here. close game though.

GB-DEN: Going to trust the Broncos at home to get it done. Big shock that these defenses have 22 turnovers between them, but I think the Broncos pull it out in the 4Q.

IND-SEA: As long as Darnold doesn’t throw a pick parade, I think Seattle wins big. Rivers should play the whole game though. They have no one else. That’s why they’re desperate enough to start grandpa.

MIN-DAL: I like a Jefferson TD but Cowboys win by 7.

MIA-PIT: No T.J. Watt but still shouldn’t be an issue. Steelers have won 22 straight at home on MNF and it’s going to be under 20 degrees. Dolphins will turtle up on the road again.

NFL 2025 Week 14 Predictions: The Day the Whole AFC Went Away Edition

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It’s a really critical NFL Week 14 in the AFC with games like Colts vs. Jaguars, Bengals vs. Bills, Steelers vs. Ravens, and Texans vs. Chiefs.

It could be the day we circle back to as the day the Colts blew their shot in the AFC South, or the day the Steelers set themselves on the path to their first losing record since 2003, or even the day the Chiefs fell to 6-7 and went on to miss the playoffs.

Or it could jumpstart those teams on a run to the playoffs. We’ll just have to watch and see what happens today.

This Week’s Articles

Who Are the Super Bowl Contenders and Pretenders in This Wild 2025 NFL Season?
2025 NFL Quarterback Rankings Week 14: Joe Burrow Returns Just As Lamar Jackson’s Season Is Falling Apart in AFC North
Scott’s Seven NFL Picks: Week 14

The first link is a 6,000-word review of where the contenders stand right now, and why 2025 has been such a weird year for so many favorites struggling. Lots of talk about regression in turnovers, close games, and easy schedules.

The QB rankings look at Joe Burrow’s odd return, the curious case of Bryce Young, and the Vikings somehow found a quarterback even worse than J.J. McCarthy.

The NFL Week 14 picks have more detailed picks in what I like for Colts-Jags, Steelers-Ravens, Texans-Chiefs, and who I like to throw for more yards between Shedeur Sanders and Cam Ward.

NFL Week 14 Predictions

Those Cowboys tricked me again. Same old Dallas: Allowed 44 points in a must-win type of game, George Pickens played poorly, and now they have to hope for the Eagles to collapse, which is possible this year.

MIA-NYJ: Is Tua really 7-0 against the Jets? Let’s make it 8-0.

SEA-ATL: Seahawks can be tricky with the spread but I think a 7-point win from that defense isn’t asking for much. They should make it hard on Kirk Cousins.

NO-TB: Bucs already beat them decisively on the road and have more weapons available now. Backdoor cover is always a possibility but I think they score enough to win by 10+ and get the sweep.

WAS-MIN: It sounds like Jayden Daniels is back, so I’m going with him to end this losing streak for the Commanders.

IND-JAX: Colts haven’t won in Jacksonville since 2014 and I think that streak lasts another year. Offense is struggling and the Jags can get the turnovers/pressure and have been scoring 25+ every week since the bye.

PIT-BAL: The old hedge pick, you never know with this rivalry that loves 3-point games. It sounds like we are getting Aaron Rodgers vs. Lamar Jackson for the first (last?) time in the NFL, though neither comes in playing that well. Can the Steelers stop Derrick Henry after giving up 249 yards last week? I’d be more inclined to pick the Steelers if they didn’t already look bad in their last two games against the Ravens, who seem to have their QB on the right page to deal with this overpaid, disappointing defense.

TEN-CLE: It doesn’t really say anything about Sanders vs. Ward to me. Just says the Browns have better coaching and a much better defense.

CIN-BUF: I’m hedging again as I think the Bengals had the Bills’ number in 2022-23, though we haven’t seen any other matchups outside of that. But the Bills are usually a home winner. They just rarely make it look pretty this year, and the Bengals have been playing better defense the last few games.

DEN-LV: We had to sit through their garbage 10-7 game on TNF a few weeks back. Hard to imagine the Denver offense makes it look that bad again in the afternoon window.

CHI-GB: Packers are home, Jayden Reed is back, and I think they find a way to win by 7 as I just don’t trust the Chicago passing game enough against a defense that has stepped up to most occasions this year. I know Chicago played them well last year, high stakes with the No. 1 seed up for grabs, and GB has been bad at covering spreads like this. But something just tells me GB 27-20.

LAR-ARI: Cardinals have played a lot of teams tough before losing. But I think the Rams roll and show last week was just a blip.

HOU-KC: I believe after Super Bowl 59 I said the next time the Chiefs had to face an elite defense without multiple OL starters, I can’t trust them to win anymore. Here we are, season likely on the line, and they get the No. 1 Houston defense in a game where they’ll be down 3 OL starters, including both tackles. That’s brutal timing, and the Texans are playing well too as a team. Chiefs play much better at home on defense which should be the key to grinding this one out. But Houston has held all but two teams under 21 points, so it’s just a really hard defense to score on and I could already see Nico Collins converting some 3rd-and-12 catch to ice the clock in a 20-17 final for the Texans. Prove me wrong, KC.

PHI-LAC: Going with the Eagles to end their 2-game slide. I still don’t trust the Chargers in games like this and Herbert is only a week removed from surgery. Think he panics to avoid a hit and gets picked.

2025 NFL Stat Oddity: Week 13

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It was already a wild start to NFL Week 13 with the underdogs going 4-0 on Thanksgiving and Black Friday. Too bad we couldn’t get Rams-Panthers on Saturday in a national window for people to see the biggest upset of the week take place. That’s the kind of game that ends your MVP campaign if it was in prime time a la Tom Brady (2021) and Brock Purdy (2023).

Alas, we’ve had 8 games with a comeback opportunity through 15 games so far, and no double-digit comebacks yet. Sounds like a good spot for the Patriots to come back from 10 down in the fourth quarter to get Drake Maye his first 4QC against the terrible Giants, or maybe it’ll be Jaxson Dart’s moment with the way this week has gone.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Rams at Panthers: Game of the Week

That’s why they play the games. You wouldn’t have guessed the Panthers (+10) would be able to take down the Rams if you watched these teams play in prime time last week, but befitting of the holiday start to Week 13, another big upset was on tap thanks to the great equalizer that is turnovers.

If the Rams protect the ball better and stop the Panthers from scoring two touchdowns on fourth downs, including the game winner, then they win this game quite easily. But after a week where I got into it with the Matthew Stafford fans for saying his MVP case was weak, he played his worst game of the season and was the main reason they lost here.

Even if you excuse the red-zone pick for Stafford on a deflected ball at the line, he still threw a pick-six, and he still fumbled in game-tying field goal range late in the game. Those are very costly mistakes.

Beyond that, he was getting boosted again by a heavy dose of play-action passes, a running game that produced 153 yards on 20 carries, and even on a go-ahead 89-yard touchdown drive in the fourth quarter, it was 59 yards from the running backs on the ground and 31 yards by Puka Nacua on a brilliant one-hand catch that may have been the catch of the year before the one Treylon Burks made for Washington at night. Far better catch than throw by Stafford.

So, he was just a bit off for much of the game, and maybe this is the type of thing he needed after everyone was blowing smoke up his ass and the Rams’ ass this year. But I was never buying it with an MVP case built around an unsustainable TD-INT ratio, one of the worst stats out there. I know Matthew Stafford’s game. He didn’t magically learn how to stop throwing picks at 37.

As for Carolina, it certainly complicates how you view Bryce Young in this offense. He was money in just about every big spot in this game, including icing it on third down instead of giving Stafford the ball back in a 31-28 game. He won a shootout against what people were viewing as the best team in the NFL. He gave the Chiefs and Eagles all they could handle last year too, so maybe playing high-stakes football for Alabama has him prepared for these matchups.

But he’s so tough to figure out as that’s now 5 game-winning drives in 2025, and 11 of his 13 wins in the NFL are with a game-winning drive. When he’s not doing that, he’s usually averaging a poor YPA and/or struggling to throw for 200 yards, so again, it’s very hard to say what the Panthers should do with him.

But these types of wins are likely going to get him a fifth-year option in Carolina and keep him around as the Panthers try to return to the playoffs for the first time since 2017. It’s one thing to come back against the Falcons (redundant). A game like this against what was the No. 1 scoring defense – that’s Houston now – is big time.

Props to the Carolina defense too for coming up with those takeaways. They’re playing hard for Dave Canales.

Bills at Steelers: The Old Man in Winter

The 2025 Steelers have had some of the usual “Same Old Steelers” games already. Winning by the skin of your teeth against the Jets in Week 1, blowing a winnable game in Cincinnati to Flacco, stepping up against the Colts’ top-ranked offense, clowning the Browns, and losing a wild one to the Bears on the road with their rookie coach.

But if there’s something that feels different and feels off, it’s the way they’ve totally shit the bed in the second half of games they were in early with contenders. Against the Seahawks, Packers, Chargers, and Bills, the Steelers were cumulatively ahead 40-29 at halftime and were outscored 88-19 in the second half to go 0-4 in those games.

The contenders have routed this team after halftime all year, and that feels different to me. Sunday was maybe the worst yet as the Steelers turned a 7-3 halftime lead over Buffalo to a 23-0 rout in the second half. It all started with that strip-sack Joey Bosa produced against Aaron Rodgers, who again was struggling to find any open receivers on a cold, windy day. He got bloodied on that hit, and he was only more ineffective from there after a poor first half too.

Mason Rudolph came into the game, and just like last week in Chicago, he threw a pick to the deep left sideline on his first drive. Then Rodgers returned and the Steelers still never scored another point. Their only touchdown came on a 39-yard drive as the defense at least produced some early takeaways for Buffalo, but the second half was a different story.

Pittsburgh was supposed to run the ball well in this matchup after showing good run blocking and concepts in Chicago last week. But against Buffalo’s poor run defense, the Steelers put up 58 yards. Meanwhile, Buffalo rushed for 249 yards, the most in Pittsburgh by any team since the Bills did it in 1975 with you know who (Juice) leading the way that day.

James Cook had 144 yards, which is more than the 123 passing yards Josh Allen had. Allen also rushed for 38 yards and a touchdown. But maybe the most depressing part of this was that the Bills had their backup offensive tackles in the whole game, and the Steelers still gave up this kind of record rushing performance against them. They didn’t sack Allen once on his 23 throws. They were more interested in barking and fighting after plays than doing anything productive in the second half.

Just another incredibly poor finish that led to about more boos than I can remember at Heinz Field (screw that renaming). It really does feel like this could be the season where they finally part ways with Tomlin if things don’t end well. It’s trending towards a 9-8 finish at best where they’ll need some help from other teams to beat the Ravens.

The standard has fallen off years ago, but it’s getting harder to recognize this team with a bunch of over-the-hill veterans who are unlikely to get better as the season goes on, and the weather gets colder and the bodies have to endure more pain.

Same OLD Steelers.

Broncos at Commanders: They Can’t Keep Getting Away with This

The 2025 Broncos truly are deserving of the “He can’t keep getting away with this!” meme from Jesse Pinkman in the final season of Breaking Bad. If you thought the 2024 Chiefs won close games by thin margins, these Broncos have set an NFL record with nine straight wins when trailing at some point in the game. They’ve also won seven of their last eight games by no more than 4 points, and they’ve won their last four games by 1-3 points each.

They weren’t expected to get much of a push from Washington (+5.5) on a night where Patrick Surtain II returned and Jayden Daniels was still out for the Commanders, but they got pushed all the way to a game-deciding two-point conversion in overtime by a 3-8 team.

Washington even had to overcome some pretty brutal officiating mistakes on the final drive of regulation just to tie the game, like a bad grounding penalty and a missed trip on Denver. But Mariota, who is not very good in these situations, delivered with an incredible play on fourth down in overtime to escape a sack and get a pass off that at least drew DPI to extend the game. But after throwing a touchdown on fourth down, Mariota’s 2PC pass was knocked down at the line by Nik Bonitto. Had he gotten that pass over him, it’s likely caught for a game-winning score.

That’s just how thin the margins have been for Denver this year. The Broncos are 10-2, but I find it very hard to trust this team in January. The nicest thing I could say is Bo Nix wasn’t bad in this game and it wasn’t an eyesore like the Raiders game on TNF a few weeks back. But it definitely wasn’t the efficient performance you’d expect against a team that hadn’t won in many weeks.

We’ll learn a lot more about this team in the coming weeks when it finishes with the Packers, Jaguars, Chiefs, and Chargers. That should tell you if they can be trusted in the playoffs or if they’ve already used up their luck with a 6-1 record at GWDs already this year.

Texans at Colts: AFC South Is Officially Three-Team Race

Once 0-3, the Texans are 7-5 and right back in the AFC South race after a controversial 20-16 win in Indianapolis. It was a chance for the No. 1 defense to prove its worth against what had been the best offense in the NFL this season. It was also a big game for C.J. Stroud, returning from a concussion.

But it’ll definitely be the game that Colts fans remember for some controversial officiating. I didn’t watch enough of the game to truly comment on everything going on there, but Houston’s game-winning drive to break the 13-13 tie alone had quite a lot of shady stuff:

  • On a 3rd-and-15 at the Indy 25, it looked like the Texans got away with a delay of game after not beating the play clock on time.
  • On that same play, Kenny Moore was flagged for DPI even though it looked like he had no significant contact whatsoever on the receiver, who flailed a bit at the end to try selling it, so that’s a huge penalty on 3rd-and-15.
  • After Nico Collins rushed for a 7-yard touchdown, the extra point sure looked like it was no good, but they said it was.

The Colts had two drives to answer that touchdown, but the Houston defense rose to the occasion both times, stuffing Jonathan Taylor for a huge 5-yard loss that led to the Colts kicking a field goal, and then stopping Daniel Jones on three consecutive passes at the Houston 31 with 1:45 left. Then the offense put it away with some runs to hold on for the 20-16 win.

Very interesting division race with the Colts (8-4), Jaguars (8-4), and Texans (7-5). The Colts have to go to Jacksonville next week where they haven’t won in over a decade, and the Texans have to go to Arrowhead on Sunday night where their season ended last year.

We’ll see what comes of it as maybe Jacksonville is the horse to back right now with Jones’ fractured fibula and the schedules remaining for these teams. But with Houston’s defense and experience of winning this division the last two years, it’s also hard not to believe in the Texans. In fact, I think if they can beat KC, they’ll get to 11-6 maybe.

Raiders at Chargers: Herbert’s Hand

The Chargers pulled away late for a 34-14 win over the hopeless Raiders, but all eyes will be on the news for Justin Herbert’s hand injury. He fractured his left non-throwing hand and needs surgery. How do you play a week after that? I guess we’ll find out with the Chargers hosting the Eagles next Monday night in a big one.

But yeah, nothing I can say about the Raiders that the Chargers’ social media team didn’t already do better.

49ers at Browns: Not Déjà vu for Brock Purdy

Cleveland’s upset over the Browns in 2023 in one of Brock Purdy’s worst games ever had me nervous about this one. Compared to 2023, the Browns have a stronger defense and the 49ers are worse on both sides of the ball.

But the fear was all for naught as the 49ers won 26-8. Granted, their three touchdown drives covered a grand total of 64 yards as the offense and special teams (mostly the ST) sold out the defense with short fields three times. The 49ers only averaged 3.9 yards per play, but to their credit, they had no turnovers, were 11/17 on third down, and Myles Garrett only got the one single sack for the defense.

All in all, not a bad day unless you’re Jauan Jennings, who is being called a “hoe” now by fellow players after a couple of recent incidents.

As for the Cleveland offense, I think the scouting profile on Shedeur Sanders is looking accurate. He’ll get you some big plays like the 34-yard touchdown pass to Harold Fannin before halftime, but he’s got inconsistency issues, takes deep sacks, and the scrambling isn’t all there. A work in progress they’ll likely keep working out instead of going back to Dillon Gabriel, but Sanders can’t save this offense this season.

Vikings at Seahawks: Not the Sam Darnold Revenge Game I Had in Mind

I really thought Sam Darnold would stick it to the Vikings to show them the mistake they made in letting him go and going with J.J. McCarthy, who was out again with a concussion for this one, putting the spotlight on undrafted rookie Max Brosmer.

But Darnold didn’t throw a touchdown pass. He only threw for 2 more yards (128) than Brosmer in another hard-to-watch game in 2025. JSN didn’t even have a catch in the first half as I assume Brian Flores employed the old Belichick strategy of taking away a No .1 receiver and making the others beat you.

But Brosmer on the road against that defense was enough on his own to beat the Vikings in this 26-0 shutout. He really just had to avoid the big mistakes in this one as his defense was keeping him in it. They got a strip-sack of Darnold, putting the ball at the Seattle 13. But on 4th-and-1 from the 4, Brosmer blew the game up by not just taking a sack before he let go of the ball right to a Seattle defender for an 85-yard pick six. That was basically the game.

Brosmer threw three more picks in the second half, and the Seattle offense didn’t find the end zone until the fourth quarter. Not that they needed any offensive touchdowns in this one.

The Vikings are just that big of a mess at the most important position. I miss the days when they had a veteran journeyman under center.

Falcons at Jets: Again, Not Serious Teams

The Atlanta Falcons have basically done nothing but disappoint us since a certain 28-3 lead, but I’m really going to remember the 2025 team as a special kind of disappointment. I thought Jeff Ulbrich’s defense would humble Aaron Glenn’s team as a way to stick it to the Jets where he was the interim coach last year. That his pass rush would overwhelm Tyrod Taylor, who is basically a deluxe version of Justin Fields with a lot of the same flaws in winning close and high-scoring games and taking sacks.

Instead, Taylor only took 2 sacks, he hit a deep touchdown to Adonai Mitchell after the DB fell down, and he led a game-tying touchdown drive (his 10-yard scramble score tied it), then after three of the quickest three-and-out drives you’ll ever see in a tied game, the Jets set up Nick Folk for a 56-yard field goal to win it 27-24 at the gun.

That’s the fourth blown lead for the Falcons this year in the fourth quarter, and they are 0-6 at GWD opportunities. I’m not convinced Raheem Morris needs to come back next season.

Cardinals at Buccaneers: Same Old Jacoby

Again, is there anything more reliable than the Cardinals this year? Jacoby Brissett has come here to do two things: Throw for 300 yards and throw a touchdown pass to Trey McBride. Once he’s accomplished those things, it’s time to fail on the game-winning drive as he did once again in a 20-17 loss in Tampa, going 4-and-out inside his 20.

Not the biggest game from Baker Mayfield, but he got Bucky Irving back, who scored and had 61 rushing yards, Chris Godwin also had 78 yards in his best game since he was injured last year.

Bucs still have No. 4 seed one-and-done team written all over them if you ask me, but we’ll see if they can stay healthy the rest of the year.

Saints at Dolphins: Tyler Shough’s First Clutch Attempt Is a Pick-Two

The Saints are 0-5 at 4QC/GWD attempts this year, and the first one for rookie Tyler Shough will be memorable for all the wrong reasons. Getting the ball back in a 19-11 game, Shough led the touchdown drive, but when it came time for the typing 2PC, the Saints’ false start pushed it back to the 7. That led to a shallow throw by Shough that was picked off and returned the distance by Minkah Fitzpatrick for a pick-two to put the Saints down 21-17.

But there was still 1:17 left as teams down 8 don’t take their dear sweet time to score the way people pretend this week. Sure, things were bleak with needing the onside kick recovery, but they got it to work out. Just like that, Shough had 75 seconds and a timeout to drive 55 yards for the game-winning touchdown.

But he was stuffed on a 4th-and-1 sneak that had no real push or momentum to it. Just like that, the threat was over and it’s another loss for the Saints.

Jaguars at Titans: Getting 1-16 Vibes

In noting Tennessee’s lucky ass win against the Cardinals this year, you have to wonder if that will help this team avoid 0-17 as it’s just been pitiful at scoring points and coming even close to a win. I still don’t think that highly of the Jaguars, but they led this one for the last 46 minutes before winning 25-3.

Tennessee will not be an attractive head coach job in 2026.

Next week: We’re going to learn a lot starting Thursday night with Cowboys vs. Lions to see which of those teams is serious about the playoffs. On Sunday afternoon, Bengals at Bills suddenly takes on more importance with the Bengals needing to run the table with Joe Burrow back. The Colts have to win in Jacksonville, which they haven’t done in over a decade. The Steelers and Ravens continue their rivalry for first place in the AFC North with four games to go. In the late window, all eyes on Bears at Packers for possibly the No. 1 seed if you can believe it. Then it’s Houston at Kansas City on SNF, and the first thing to check will be that OL injury report for the Chiefs in a must-win game. MNF isn’t bad either with Eagles-Chargers, two shaky teams. A lot to look forward to.

2025 NFL Stat Oddity: Week 12

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

The NFL Week 12 schedule delivered with three games going to overtime where taking the ball first or second was a debate. We also had a 21-point comeback in a game that maybe you should have expected it since one team has consistently been putting in half-assed efforts this year.

But I still heavily lean towards going on defense first in overtime with the new rules. This way you know exactly what you need on offense, you probably will have enough time to move the ball downfield using all four downs, any part of the field you want, and that’s the kind of football we rarely ever see in the NFL. You’re usually working against a major time constraint at the end of a half in the hurry-up offense. Not so much here.

Alas, the Jaguars and Lions both got the ball first and won their games after a score and defensive stop. But not the Colts. They actually let Patrick Mahomes touch the ball last like Kyle Shanahan did in Super Bowl 58 and he made sure they never saw the ball again. Who you’re playing and the context of the game still matter for your overtime decision, but in most cases, I think you’d be better to go on defense first just like they did in college for years. When there’s no sudden death anymore on that first drive? Not a hard choice.

We had seven games with a comeback opportunity this week (six on Sunday). Pretty good drama except for one of the worst Sunday Night Football games.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Colts at Chiefs: Game of the Week

The Chiefs had been the only winless team (0-5) in one-score games this year, and that’s why I think it was important for them to win in adverse conditions on Sunday instead of easily pushing past the Colts by double digits like their other wins this year.

Sure, you don’t want to have a tipped ball getting intercepted by a lineman on the first throw of the game. You don’t want the refs calling bullshit facemask penalties on your right tackle to take a touchdown off the board when he’s a penalty machine enough on his own without phantom calls. You don’t want to fumble in the red zone while you’re still down 20-9 in the fourth quarter, finishing the game minus-2 in turnovers (2-0) and minus-4 in sacks (4-0).

But those mistakes are the reason this game was a grind that the Chiefs needed overtime to win 23-20, a game where they never technically led for any seconds before Harrison Butker’s fifth field goal of the day went through in OT.

Still, I think it’s the kind of clutch win against a good team (Colts were 8-2 and coming off a bye week) that the Chiefs can build from as they accomplished several good things in this game:

  • Mahomes threw for 352 yards, ran for 30 more, and limited his 4 sacks to just 6 lost yards.
  • Kareem Hunt paced the offense with 30 carries for 104 yards as the Chiefs ran 91 plays to 50 for the Colts, gained 494 yards, and held the ball for 42:35.
  • Despite the Colts getting corners Sauce Gardner and Charvarius Ward together for the first time, the Chiefs found ways to get Rashee Rice (141 yards) and Xavier Worthy (59 yards) open for 200 yards as they led the way instead of a 36-year-old Travis Kelce (43 yards).
  • The defense shut down Jonathan Taylor, holding him to 58 yards on 16 carries with nearly half of those yards coming on one run (27 yards).
  • Alec Pierce had been hot for Indy but was limited to a single 26-yard catch.
  • Daniel Jones was ice cold to finish this game, and the Colts went three-and-out on four straight drives to end it against a KC defense that was No. 24 in three-and-out rate this season.

This is the kind of gut-check win that has defined this run of success for the Chiefs. But it may have all been for naught in overtime after the Chiefs faced a 3rd-and-7 following a 3-yard run by Clyde-Edwards Helaire. Seriously, 2nd-and-10, season the line, and you’re going inside from the shotgun with CEH for 3 yards?

But that’s when Mahomes delivered his most important completion of the season for 31 yards deep to Worthy. Rice had another 20-yard play soon after that as this may have been his best NFL game ever as he finally established that quick connection that produces meaningful YAC in this offense. Then it was a matter of Butker hitting from 27 yards out, which he did for the 23-20 win.

The Chiefs still have some things to work on. But look around the rest of the NFL. Who doesn’t have flaws this year? They can build on this but it is a quick turnaround on Thursday against a Dallas team that can score and is playing with some confidence.

Meanwhile, the Colts (8-3) are in some trouble with the Jaguars a game behind and two games to come against each other. They could even fall out of the playoffs entirely, so the Chiefs may actually find themselves rooting for the Jags to win the AFC South since they actually have a H2H tie-breaker over a team in Indy.

Big missed opportunity from the Colts on a day where Jones was never sacked. Still, they kept going to him with the Chiefs shutting down the run and he didn’t deliver. It’s a problem after how good this offense was for half the season.

Eagles at Cowboys: The Most Half-Assed Team in the NFL

After six games this year, I said that the 2025 Eagles were one of the most half-assed teams in NFL history. A team that could drop 21 points by halftime and be lucky to only add a field goal in the second half like they did in Week 1 against Dallas when they won 24-20.

Well, I haven’t been keeping up with the stat as I see the Eagles haven’t been so bad at this in recent weeks. But Sunday was quite the spectacle as they penned their magnum opus: a 21-0 lead in Dallas in the first 20 minutes followed by the Cowboys outscoring them 24-0 the rest of the day. It’s the fourth time the Cowboys have erased a 21-point deficit to win, their largest comeback deficit in team history.

It’s incredible how this keeps happening to a team that’s trying to repeat. The Eagles scored three touchdowns on three drives before going punt, end of half, punt, punt, punt, missed field goal (56 yards), Saquon Barkley lost fumble, fumbled punt return, and a punt after Jalen Hurts was sacked on a key 3rd-and-2 in a 21-21 game.

Barkley finished with 22 yards on 10 carries and that fumble on a catch in Dallas territory in a tied game. The fumbled punt return actually didn’t end up hurting the Eagles as they stopped the Cowboys on 4th-and-goal from the 1, a curious decision as the Eagles didn’t look capable of putting together another scoring drive after this cold streak.

And they didn’t. Hurts looked like he might have something cooking before a 3rd-and-2 sack changed everything. The Cowboys got the ball back and big catches by Jake Ferguson and George Pickens (playing better than CeeDee Lamb this year) set up the field goal from 42 yards out to win the game with no time left.

The Cowboys had three pass plays of 43-plus yards to three different receivers in this game as they took advantage of some injuries in Philly’s secondary. But the offense has to take ownership on these dismal scoreless halves. They have way too much talent to be doing this, but this is what happens when your offensive coordinator has no clue what he’s doing.

I still don’t think the NFC East is in any jeopardy with the Eagles at 8-3 and the Cowboys at 5-5-1. Remember, no one has repeated as NFC East champs since the 2001-04 Eagles, so this game being the catalyst for another Philadelphia implosion would be an all-timer. But I don’t think we’re there.

However, this keeps Dallas alive in the wild card hunt, and it hurts the Eagles’ chances at that No. 1 seed. With the way this team is playing, taking Eagles first half ML, Bears full game ML on Friday might be a good call this week.

They seem to have forgotten games are 60 minutes long.

Giants at Lions: The Full Jameis Experience

How fun is the Jameis Winston experience when it’s like this? His touchdown catch from 33 yards out in the fourth quarter gave the Gants a 10-point lead, but that’s been their undoing all year. Sure enough, they did it again as Jahmyr Gibbs was incredible with multiple long touchdown runs in this game.

Then I can’t fault the Giants for going for the 4th-and-5 in a 27-24 game instead of kicking a field goal to go up 30-24, which is a 6-point lead, which is fool’s gold. My issue is they called some poor plays on second and third down, which led to the 4th-and-6. Gotta seize that moment as a touchdown there should win the game.

Instead, the Lions got the ball back, and sure enough, their kicker was good from 59 yards out to force overtime. Totally saved the day. Then after Gibbs exploded for 69 yards on the first play of overtime for a touchdown, Winston had his shot to answer and failed. Great fourth-down sack by Aidan Hutchinson to put a stamp on the 34-27 comeback win.

Buccaneers at Rams: First Half TKO

What can be said about SNF? It was one of the most pointless second halves I’ve ever seen in an NFL game as Baker Mayfield couldn’t return after a horrible decision to have him throw a miracle Hail Mary in a 31-7 game when he was already ailing. We’ll see if that costs this team a division title and playoff spot after their third-straight loss.

But just total control for the Rams from the start. Cade Otton’s weird bobbled catch, knees down, ball stripped away for a “pick six” quickly set this one on a path to a disastrous night for the Bucs. Just not giving themselves a fair shot to win.

But yeah, there was just a single field goal added after halftime as the Rams won 34-7. A game where both teams could have agreed to just kneel out the second half and be better for it.

Patriots at Bengals: Defensive Effort Wasted

The rare NFL game where both defenses scored a pick-six. You’re not surprised if Joe Flacco throws one of those, but Drake Maye doing it by lofting a horrible pass right to the Bengals’ defensive back was certainly unexpected.

But the Bengals wasted one of their best defensive efforts this year. Beyond the pick-six, they contained the running game well, and they came up with big stops in the red zone as the Patriots only had one touchdown drive.

But the Ja’Marr Chase suspension for spitting at Jalen Ramsey last week was a big one as Flacco could have used his best weapon in a game where multiple receivers were hurt, including a concussion for Tee Higgins. That left Flacco firing to a random cast on the final drive in a 26-20 game.

He converted a few fourth downs but not the last one to end the game as the Patriots escaped to a league-best 10-2 record. Are they actually that good of a team? I don’t think so. But they keep finding ways to win.

Steelers at Bears: Aaron Rodgers Misses Last Chicago Bout

We’ll see what comes of the Steelers’ season at 6-5, but maybe they’ll regret not letting Aaron Rodgers give it a go against the team he’s owned his whole career. Pittsburgh’s defense was bad in this game again outside of one pressure on Caleb Williams in the end zone that he exacerbated by giving up a strip-sack to T.J. Watt that was recovered for a touchdown.

The Steelers were up to their turnover tricks again, but I feel like they lost the game in three key places:

  • After the strip-sack, they got another turnover (hard to see) on a fumble at midfield, but instead of building on their 14-7 lead, they were stopped with Heyward on the Tush Push at midfield, and Chicago drove a short field for the game-tying touchdown. Big swing.
  • Mason Rudolph threw a pick on his first deep pass, then tried to get away with dink-and-dunk throws the rest of the way until he got strip-sacked in the late third quarter, which led to a Chicago touchdown and 10-point deficit.
  • Down 31-28, Rudolph had a couple of cracks at it and may have gotten it done for at least the tying field goal had the Steelers lined up properly (illegal formation penalty wiped out 22-yard scramble to midfield), then he has to do better on those last throws as Chris Bowell may have been able to make it from 60 to force overtime.

Just a disappointing day for Pittsburgh as it rushed for 186 yards and got a lot of YAC plays again on offense. But they let Caleb Williams get away with too many rough plays that they couldn’t capitalize on.

Vikings at Packers: What If Your QB’s Alter Ego Was One of a Functional Quarterback?

I think it would have been so funny if J.J. McCarthy’s “Nine” alter ego was a quarterback who only had good moments in games against Big Ten-region teams like the ones in his division. A trip to Green Bay (Wisconsin)? Sounds great.

But if Sunday was any indication of what kind of quarterback we’re dealing with here, he won’t be around many more years for the Packers to exploit him in Vikings-Packers games. Green Bay finally covered the big spread with ease this year in a 23-6 win that was never in doubt.

McCarthy threw for just 87 yards and that’s even worse when you take away 35 more yards from the 5 sacks where he flirted with safeties. All Minnesota could do was two long field goals on nine drives as McCarthy was picked twice to end the game.

Green Bay didn’t need to show much on offense to win this one comfortably.

Falcons at Saints: You Are Not Serious Teams

I picked the Falcons (+1.5) to win even without Michael Penix and Drake London because I just thought they were due a win, they’d turn things over to Bijan Robinson and the running game, and that pass rush could stop a rookie (Tyler Shough) in his third start.

Some of that was exactly right, but Kirk Cousins did his defense few favors by throwing a pick-six. Otherwise, the Saints’ offense 3 points on 10 drives. They even missed two field goals, so neither team looked very serious to me in a game between the NFC South’s worst teams.

We’ve fallen a far way from shootouts between Drew Brees and Matt Ryan. Then again, bringing out your quarterback on 4th-and-goal at the 1 so Taysom Hill can throw an incomplete pass to waste half of the third quarter does sound like something late-stage Sean Payton would have done too.

Jaguars at Cardinals: Same Old Script

Seemingly every Jacksonville game in 2025: Trevor Lawrence raises coach Liam Coen’s blood pressure with horrific turnovers, but the defense gets some timely pressures, someone with a private college-sounding name scores a touchdown, and they win by 1-3 points.

Seemingly every Arizona game in 2025: Jacoby Brissett throws a ton of passes, takes a late lead, the defense gives it up, and he can’t close the deal in a one-score loss.

Those two scripts collided on Sunday and the Jaguars moved to 7-4 with another 27-24 overtime win to the chagrin of other AFC fans as this team hasn’t played a lot of good football this year but keeps winning games like this.

They overcame 4 turnovers by Lawrence in this one, and that doesn’t include an ill-advised incompletion on 4th-and-1 that gave Arizona its chance for a game-tying field goal that forced overtime.

It was a little surprising to see the Jaguars want the ball first in overtime, but they made it work out. The offense got a 52-yard field goal, then Brissett reminded us why he’s now 7-25 at game-winning drives after throwing incomplete on 4th-and-4 at the Jacksonville 42.

Seahawks at Titans: 30-24? Really?

Have to pat myself on the back for this one and going with the first-half spread (Seahawks -6.5 or -7.5 depending when you placed it) as the best bet instead of the full-game spread, the Titans going under their team total, or thinking this might be the week for Rashid Shaheed to catch a long touchdown for his new team.

Instead, it was the JSN Show again with 167 yards and 2 touchdowns as the Seahawks led 16-3 at halftime, then 23-3 before eventually winning 30-24 with the backdoor cover open for Cam Ward, who still scored more points than I ever imagined in this one. Granted, the Titans had another return touchdown on a punt.

But these are the games where Seattle looks great. Beating up on the worst teams this year.

Jets at Ravens: Ho-Hum, the Ravens Won Again

Something’s just been off with the Ravens since Lamar Jackson came back. He struggled for a long time to get to 100 passing yards in this game, Derrick Henry only averaged 3.0 yards per carry, they were 2-11 on third down, and they were just fortunate to be playing the Jets, who never really get turnovers this year.

The Jets may have even been ready to pull off the upset as a 13.5-point underdog in Baltimore, but three key moments sunk them in the 23-10 loss:

  • Up 7-3 before halftime, Tyrod Taylor took a sack on 3rd-and-2 at the Baltimore 39 and the Jets had to punt instead of adding points.
  • After the Ravens took their first lead at 10-7 in the third quarter, the Jets failed on 4th-and-2 at their own 42, setting up the Ravens for a short touchdown drive and 17-7 lead. You don’t have Detroit’s offense anymore, Aaron Glenn. Punt there and make Baltimore earn it on a long field.
  • Down 20-10 with 6:58 left, Breece Hall fumbled in the red zone and that’s a wrap.

The Ravens (6-5) are above .500 for the first time this season but that doesn’t make them dangerous yet. Not playing like this on offense against bad teams.

Browns at Raiders: Chip Kelly’s Swansong

Yes, Shedeur Sanders winning his first start gets the headlines, but this one was really about the Cleveland defense sacking Geno Smith 10 times, which has led to offensive coordinator Chip Kelly getting fired Sunday night. He clearly didn’t have much of a line to work with, but he also never really had a plan for Ashton Jeanty either.

Meanwhile, the Browns did a good job of limiting Sanders’ exposure to the pass rush with just 1 sack on 20 throws while still giving him some freedom to make plays, like he did on an early 52-yard completion. I’m not sure what in the Kadarius Toney got into Jerry Jeudy on his fumble play, but that could have been another huge play for the offense to get points, and of course Sampson took a screen 66 yards for a touchdown in the fourth quarter to ice it.

But the Raiders are just hot garbage this year, so I’m not sure this really proves anything either way for Sanders, who should be glad he didn’t get drafted there.

Next week: Thanksgiving means island games coming out the ass this week with three on Thursday (pretty strong slate, to be fair) and a Black Friday game (Bears vs. Eagles) that takes on higher importance now. That’s actually the highlight of the week as the best Sunday can offer is Bills-Steelers, Texans-Colts, and I can’t believe they’ve stuck with Broncos vs. Commanders for SNF. One of those nights I start writing even earlier. Then Giants-Patriots on MNF, which isn’t the most compelling way to start December.