Tag: Steelers

2024 NFL Stat Oddity: Week 13

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

Week 13 started with a lot of close NFL finishes on the holidays, but it carried over to Sunday too. A whopping 12 of the 15 games this week have been decided by 1-to-7 points with MNF pending. A few were artificially close, but there were 9 games with a comeback opportunity and we saw six game-winning drives this week.

This has felt like the week where people started picturing a Championship Sunday with Eagles-Lions and Bills-Chiefs. Maybe it ends up that way, but the one thing I’m sure of is we’ll get a new NFC champion as the 49ers are more cooked than your turkey was.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Eagles at Ravens: Best Philadelphia Win in Two Years

I have to give the Eagles (10-2) credit for what I’d call their best win in the last two seasons. They may be playing defense better than anybody since Week 6, they got this one done in Baltimore against a quarterback who was 23-1 against the NFC, and they didn’t have Darius Slay, DeVonta Smith, and they lost some defensive backs during the game too and still were up 24-12 late.

Oh, they also spotted the Ravens a 9-0 lead, which usually leads to an avalanche. But the Eagles shook off the bad start and hung in there.

However, I don’t want to give the offense too much credit since it managed just 252 yards, 4-of-12 on third down, and they didn’t even have any takeaways or long returns to produce some hidden yards in those numbers. It was a bit bland on that side of the ball, but Saquon Barkley was dominant down the stretch, and if any award was decided in this game, I’d say Barkley is inching closer to lock territory for Offensive Player of the Year. Derrick Henry may have blown his shot with no touchdowns in consecutive games and Barkley getting the push in this head-to-head matchup that wasn’t a grand offensive display by any means.

But let’s also just be honest. The Eagles sat back and watched the Ravens do what they do best this year: Beat themselves. They kept the penalties to a minimum this time, but the deterioration of Justin Tucker is getting so bad that you honestly have to consider if it’s time to say goodbye. He’s missed a career-high 10 kicks this season (with 5 games to go) and that includes 3 more in this game. They weren’t Herculean tasks either from 47 and 53 yards, and he started downhill by missing an extra point in the first quarter.

Somehow, this game had 5 fumbles and all were recovered by the team who fumbled, so no turnovers. Lamar Jackson played like someone dying to turn it over with a fumble on an unforced error that killed a drive, then he could have easily been picked on a fourth-down throw in the fourth quarter that fell incomplete (probably better for Philly’s field position). But he wasn’t impressive like he was a year ago against a Vic Fangio defense from Miami.

But Jackson’s success rate in the fourth quarter was 1-for-7 on drives where it was a 14-12 and 21-12 game, so that’s not going to help his MVP case for the team’s fifth loss this year. He also took a huge sack on the play before Tucker missed his 47-yard field goal, and had three straight failed dropbacks before the next missed field goal in the third quarter.

But if you wanted to show one play that sums up this game, just look at the way rookie corner Cooper DeJean tackled Derrick Henry for a 3-yard gain on a 3rd-and-11 in a 21-12 game:

https://twitter.com/_MLFootball/status/1863374958258270292/history

Henry’s OPOY case may have died on that snap. The Ravens got the ball back with 63 seconds left in a 24-12 game and were able to get a touchdown with just 3 seconds left. It had a bit of a garbage time feel to it, especially with Jackson running for 39 yards against a defense that thought maybe a flag was thrown. But that put 19 points on the board. Just keeping it at 12 would have given them a better shot of not setting their season low in the playoffs for the fifth-straight time under Jackson.

But the fact is the Ravens are now 8-5 and facing a stronger likelihood of taking the wild card route in January. They could also end up inevitably facing Pittsburgh in the wild card, and at this point, I’m not sure if it matters all that much if the game is played in Pittsburgh or Baltimore. It’s still going to be Ravens-Steelers, and lately, that’s not good for Baltimore winning.

But it’s a very good win for the Eagles as the defense should feel some real confidence if it has to play a team like Detroit or Buffalo in a big playoff game this year.

It was still a “yikes” day from Tucker though…

Steelers at Bengals: Shootout of the Year (with a Predictable Winner)

The Bengals insisted all September that they were still the team to beat in the AFC, and yet here we are with the team at 4-8, likely not going to the playoffs for the second year in a row, and it’s another loss to Pittsburgh that could effectively be the final nail. Doing it in Cincinnati is just the cherry on top as the Steelers travel there so well like they did in the playoffs in 2005 and 2015 when they ended those dream seasons for the Bengals.

But they’ve done it to the Bengals in the regular season for a couple of decades too. I said the offense has always perked up against Lou Anarumo’s defense even in the Matt Canada era, and they were really special on Sunday with the first game for Arthur Smith and Russell Wilson.

It got off to a terrible start with George Pickens getting dragged down by the helmet, and it leading to a pick-six for the Bengals. It wasn’t DPI since the ball wasn’t in the air yet. It wasn’t illegal contact since it was within 5 yards. I guess they could have called illegal hands to the face, but I still put that more on Pickens for being soft on the play, and then he of course didn’t even try to make a tackle, choosing to complain to the ref for a flag.

But I didn’t imagine Russell Wilson would have the best game by a Pittsburgh quarterback since vintage Ben Roethlisberger after that start. It’s the most encouraged I’ve felt about a Pittsburgh offensive game in years, because they showed things that were different this week. They saw the complaints and flaws in Cleveland that the offense relies on too many deep shots, Wilson is getting too much heat, and they need to find a more consistent offense that can hit layups too.

Well, they did that Sunday. They attacked the Bengals repeatedly over the middle on short, quick throws to the running backs. Najee Harris got so many catches on one drive that he had to get oxygen in the first quarter. Better get used to it, because the Steelers may actually be using the middle of the field a little more going forward. But they definitely liked what they saw on tape against the Bengals, and Wilson was very accurate and decisive with the ball. He only took 2 sacks, and he finished 29-of-38 for 414 yards and 3 touchdowns, his second-highest passing yardage total in his career.

Wilson got to over 250 yards by halftime when Joe Burrow had just 100 yards. That doesn’t mean the defense was playing great, because they gave up way too many penalties on Joey Porter Jr., and they relied on a couple of splash plays to get 3 takeaways from Burrow, including two strip-sacks. The big one came in the fourth quarter when it was returned for a touchdown to take a 41-24 lead with 11:06 left.

But the Steelers played abysmal defense the rest of the way, and again, Porter Jr. was a main culprit as he is too grabby with receivers and got flagged for DPI in the end zone. On the last drive, he dropped a pick in the end zone that would have sealed the win, but Burrow instead got another touchdown pass. Keep in mind, that drive happened so fast because of a 49-yard pass to a wide-open Ja’Marr Chase with a blocker in front of him.

It really looked like the Steelers might blow a 17-point lead to one of the worst comeback teams in the league. Even the offense was blowing the situation as a holding penalty on a 2nd-down run stopped the clock with 1:54 left. That means if the Bengals could stop a 3rd-and-4, Burrow would get over a minute to score a touchdown unless Chris Boswell could nail a very long field goal (58 yards or so).

The Steelers put Justin Fields into the game for the first time, and you had to expect a run from him. Everyone should have saw that coming, and yet, he did exactly that and it still converted for a 7-yard gain. He even did the slide properly this time instead of coming up short to extend the game. But that’s a wrap in a 44-38 game, the highest-scoring game this season, no one expected.

At the same time, I feel much better about Pittsburgh’s chances to keep up in January if they have to outscore the likes of the Bills or Chiefs. But I also feel even worse that the defense is going to get destroyed like it has in every single playoff game since the 2017 season. Even with some of their best front seven players creating 4 sacks and 2 fumbles, this defense still allowed 31 points. That’s poor.

But after the first loss with Wilson to Cleveland last week, I can’t imagine anyone will still question the move from Fields to him after this game. Wilson was in vintage form in this one.

49ers at Bills: San Francisco Melts in the Snow

This is exactly why you shouldn’t trust a warm-weather team playing in the snowy elements of Buffalo in a game like this. Yes, the 49ers didn’t have Trent Williams and Nick Bosa, but Brock Purdy returned, and there are still a lot of really talented players on both sides of the ball with a coach who is supposed to be a genius.

Yet the 49ers turned in a lifeless, mistake-heavy performance in another 35-10 rout that has dropped them to 5-7, and they may not recover from this one. They also lost Christian McCaffrey again, and with the way he pulled up on his own, we may not see him again until 2025.

But even without Williams, there were running lanes to be found as both defenses struggled to get traction on the field that was quickly covered with snow that started just before kickoff. That also slows down the pass rush, so even Bosa might not have been that huge in a game like this against a quarterback as hard to sack like Allen.

But the fact is Allen took a backseat on this night where he only had to throw 17 passes. The running backs picked up just a hair under 200 yards as James Cook even broke a 65-yard touchdown on a 1-play drive. The Bills opened this game up in the third quarter when the 49ers blew their shot to make this competitive at 21-3 when Kyle Juszczyk fumbled at the goal line as the team struggled with ball security all night and just looked generally unprepared.

Meanwhile, the Bills have a player like Mack Hollins walking to the stadium barefoot, and he caught a touchdown in this game. But the final nail in the coffin was when Allen threw an off-target pass to Amari Cooper, who fought with the defense before pitching a lateral to Allen, who dove for the score, essentially completing a touchdown pass to himself (but no reception credit). That made it 28-3 and that was a wrap as Purdy couldn’t even throw for 100 yards to his more talented receivers. Purdy even fumbled on an unforced error to set up a short field for Buffalo’s last touchdown.

It looks like the 49ers are going out sad, and while Kyle Shanahan may deserve an injury excuse for missing the playoffs this year, you can’t tell me 38-10 and 35-10 in consecutive weeks with these types of performances is not worth criticizing given the star power still on the field.

Texans at Jaguars: Houston’s Not Beating the Allegations

Why is it even when the Texans win there still feels like a loser quality to it? This game was marred by the cheap hit by Azeez Al-Shaair that gave Trevor Lawrence a concussion, which led to him posturing on the field in a scary scene.

I say suspend his ass, because that looked very intentional, and apparently he’s got a history of being a dirty player.

But guess what? Even though the Texans were up 23-6 with 12:00 left and Mac Jones, one of the worst comeback quarterbacks in NFL history, was in the game, the Jaguars still made Houston sweat for the win. Jones led back-to-back touchdown drives to make it 23-20 with 3:31 left, a bad trend that’s happened multiple times to the Texans this year.

Fortunately, they kept the ball on the ground with Joe Mixon, who was able to hit the big runs to get the last few first downs to put the game away. But I want to see what the league does to Al-Shaair. All these little penalties and fines that are supposed to protect the quarterbacks but don’t actually stop the hits from still happening. Let’s see some real punishment like docking him his last 5 game checks this year.

Chargers at Falcons: Kirk Cousins Is a Tampa Bay Defense Merchant This Year

Man, Kirk Cousins played the Tampa Bay defense twice this year as if his family’s lives depended on him being great. He threw 8 touchdowns to one pick in those games, he had the 500-yard game, and his 276 yards in the rematch was also his third-highest yardage game with the Falcons.

I don’t want to act like those are his only big games this year as he shredded the weak Cowboys’ defense, and he had that good comeback moment in Philadelphia. But the Tampa Bay games are definitely building up his season stats, especially after he threw 4 picks in a rough 17-13 loss at home to the Chargers here.

Cousins was picked on 3-of-4 drives to end this game, which was always within reach. One of Cousins’ picks was returned for a touchdown in the third quarter, which is how the Chargers took the lead for good.

I thought Justin Herbert would have a big passing game with J.K. Dobbins out, but he threw for just 147 yards on 23 attempts, and Ladd McConkey had 117 of those yards in a huge game for the rookie. But it’s not like the running game stepped up for Herbert. It produced 12 carries for 55 yards for him.

The defense led the way here as the offense only had 187 yards. Meanwhile, the Falcons had 350 yards, but they were 3/14 on third down and the four picks. Definitely a winnable game that was thrown away by the Falcons.

Cardinals at Vikings: The 10-Win Team No One Is Talking About

The Vikings are now 10-2, winners of five straight, and it feels like no one talks about them because of the allure of the Lions and Packers in the same division. But they’ll get a rematch with those teams at the end of the season, they already won in Green Bay, and this division is far from decided.

Minnesota broke expectations again by being able to overcome a 19-6 deficit in the second half behind quarterback Sam Darnold, who continues to play well. He was sacked 5 times in this game, matched his leading rushers with 22 yards on the ground, but still drove 70 yards twice for critical touchdowns in a 23-22 comeback win.

Aaron Jones made up for another fumble by catching an open touchdown for the lead with 1:13 left. The Cardinals weren’t able to get a first down as it was not a great game for Kyler Murray, who was picked twice in the quarter, including a desperation play on 4th-and-10 to end it at 23-22. They only needed a field goal, but now Arizona (6-6) is second in the NFC West.

The Vikings could have what it takes to shake up what people are starting to bill as an inevitable championship game between the Lions and Eagles.

Seahawks at Jets: 41 and Done

Aaron Rodgers turns 41 today (Monday), and he looked every bit that age and more in Sunday’s latest loss to the Seahawks. Apparently, the Jets are the first team to be favored in 9-of-12 games and have a record as bad as 3-9 SU. They found a way to blow their fourth lead in the fourth quarter this season, but this game had a few critical turning points that largely went against the Jets.

Up 21-7 in the second quarter after a kickoff return for a touchdown, the Jets had a chance to really put the dagger through the Seahawks, who fumbled on the ensuing kickoff. But after Rodgers missed Garrett Wilson on a pass, the refs missed a delay of game, and Rodgers’ pass was intercepted by Leonard Williams, who rumbled his way for a 92-yard touchdown, reportedly the longest ever for a 300-pound player. That made it 21-13 in a situation where it looked like the Jets would go up 28-7.

The Jets never scored again. Breece Hall wasted a goal-line stand by fumbling, which led to a Seattle field goal to make it 21-19 in the fourth quarter. The Seahawks were later stuffed on a 4th-and-1 run that was negated by a horse collar penalty. They finished that drive with the go-ahead touchdown instead with 5:31 left, giving Rodgers plenty of time to get a touchdown in a 26-21 deficit.

But the drive was painfully slow, and things quickly went haywire after the 2-minute warning. Rodgers took a sack and faced a 4th-and-15. Naturally, his pass fell harmlessly incomplete to end the game. Rodgers finished 21-of-39 for 185 yards, which will drop his career-low YPA (6.4) this season even lower.

Big win for the Seahawks, who are 7-5 and in first place in the NFC West.

Colts at Patriots: Marathon Drive Produces Rare Win in New England

The Colts had not won in New England since 2006, a memory of better and far more relevant times for this team. For both teams, obviously. But the Colts had lost their last 7 trips to Gillette Stadium, so it is a welcome sign that Shane Steichen is now 2-0 against the Patriots after also beating them in Germany in 2023.

This game had more scoring, though it sure didn’t look like Anthony Richardson was going to surpass 100 passing yards for the longest time, and those fears about him only doing well on scripted drives came up again as he was having a mess of a game on drives that didn’t begin each half.

It looked like things were going New England’s way again once Drake Maye led a go-ahead drive for a touchdown to take a 24-17 lead, then corner Christian Gonzalez picked off Richardson with 7:59 left. That was lights out in the old days for the Patriots, but not anymore.

The Colts forced a three-and-out, and Richardson took over with 5:34 left and 80 yards to go. Old-school football. But it was mostly passing from Richardson until the Colts moved their 19-play march into the red zone, then he started getting more designed runs. After calling five straight runs, the Colts put the ballgame on 4th-and-3 on Richardson to make a throw on time, and he delivered with the touchdown to Alec Pierce with 12 seconds left.

That’s a solid situation to go for two, which the Colts also converted with Richardson powering his way in for the 25-24 lead. But we also have to reconsider this strategy with the way teams are setting up field goals anymore. Getting to start at the 30 is a huge bonus, and the Patriots still had timeouts. Even with a rookie quarterback and some low-level weapons, the Patriots managed to run 3 snaps in 11 seconds (hometown clock operator?) to move the ball 20 yards to midfield and at least give kicker Joey Slye a shot at a 68-yard field goal, which would be the longest in NFL history.

This is the same kicker who shanked a 67-yard field goal against the Chiefs in 2020 when he was with Carolina. He’s also a kicker who blew a 25-yard field goal earlier in this game, but from 68, he was straight down the middle. It just came up a yard or two short.

That would have been an amazing kick, and it does make you want to think twice about 12 seconds being long enough to avoid a finish like this when you go for two. But I guess if you don’t think you can win in overtime, this is what you do.

I’m still not convinced Richardson is the real deal for the Colts, who are hanging in the playoff hunt at 6-7, but at least this drive and the one against the Jets are encouraging.

Buccaneers at Panthers: Bryce Young Did His Job Again

One of the more encouraging stories in the last month has been Bryce Young playing like an actual NFL quarterback. Has it been great? Not quite, but getting production out of him, getting him to score 20 points in four straight games, and seeing him deliver a few clutch drives is absolutely huge given he’s spent most of his career as someone who might not sniff 20 points in 3 weeks combined.

Frankly, he should have had this game won against Tampa Bay as a 5.5-point underdog, but they gave it away again. Young stepped up with a great 25-yard touchdown throw to Adam Thielen with 30 seconds left to take a 23-20 lead. But in today’s NFL with the kickoff putting teams at the 30 and so many kickers capable of hitting from long distance, it’s really hard to defend that kind of lead. It’s not like the old days.

Sure enough, Baker Mayfield shrugged off a pretty poor game where he was hit hard multiple times, and he got his offense into field goal range with three productive completions and a scramble. See kids, you can fire off five scrimmage plays (plus the field goal) in 30 seconds if you have three timeouts.

Chase McLaughlin was good from 51 yards out to send the game to overtime. But he wasn’t good from 55 yards on the first drive of overtime, and I have to question the decision to kick that long attempt. First, it doesn’t win the game. It only gives you a lead and puts the opponent in that rare air of four-down football without a real time constraint.

Then it’s not like McLaughlin is a stud kicker. If he misses, you’re giving Carolina the ball at their 45, and a field goal wins the game for them. It’s 4th-and-7 at the Carolina 37, so you probably don’t want to go for it that far. I might just punt or try the hard count and punt there. Make Young drive a long field while being constrained to 3-down football.

The Bucs’ defense bailed out the rest of the team, because the Panthers looked like they were going to get a game-winning field goal after another brilliant catch from Theilen to the 34. But on the very next play, Chuba Hubbard was stripped on a great forced fumble by Nelson.

Bucky Irving had the huge day, but it was Rachaad White who put it away with a 38-yard run. McLaughlin was good from 30 yards away and the Bucs escaped with the 26-23 win to stay tied in the NFC South with Atlanta at 6-6 (tie-breaker still favors Atlanta).

A very close call that would have me worried the Bucs aren’t going to be good enough to run through this softer spot of the schedule after all to win the division. But it might not matter if the Falcons are going to keep playing the way they have against non-Tampa opponents.

Rams at Saints: The Drought Continues

One record streak ended and another streak continued in the Rams’ 21-14 road win over the Saints. First, I had no idea the Rams had an NFL-record 129 game streak of scoring in the first half. That ended with this one as they trailed 6-0 at the half, so that record is now within the sights of the Ravens, who are up to 124 games.

If you include playoff games, the Ravens just broke the record with a 102-game streak, surpassing the Rams (101 games). To the surprise of no one reading this, the Rams were shut out in the first half of Super Bowl 53 against the Patriots, so this technically wasn’t the first time a Sean McVay team did this. Just never in the regular season before Sunday.

At least they made up for it this time with three touchdown drives in the second half. But that left the door open for Derek Carr to finally lead the first fourth-quarter comeback win of his Saints’ career. He threw a perfect pass for a 28-yard touchdown to MVS, the savior of this receiving corps right now, and Dante Pettis (he’s still around?) caught the game-tying 2-point conversion to tie the game at 14.

But Stafford got on a hot streak and threw a touchdown to Puka Nacua to regain a 21-14 lead with 8:54 left. The Saints were putting together a drive that got very run heavy, and after losing Taysom Hill to an injury, they went to Alvin Kamara on three straight runs that brought up a 4th-and-3 at the LA 9 with just over a minute left as this drive was fixing to take up almost the last 9 minutes.

You can already sense the doom to come, and sure enough, Carr held the ball long enough for Jared Verse to get to him and force a game-sealing incompletion (nearly a strip-sack). I’m not sure anyone was open but Carr’s limited mobility hurts there as he had no chance to escape from Verse, who should be the DROY front-runner.

Guess the Saints will just have to wait another week to pull off a 4QC win.

Titans at Commanders: Early Knockout

Go figure. The Commanders struggled for the last three games on offense, and the Titans came into this game with the No. 1 defense in yards per drive allowed. Before you could blink it was 28-0 with the Commanders scoring four straight touchdowns to start the game. A couple were set up on short fields after the Titans fumbled twice, a problem for them this year.

But this was a nice bounce-back game for Jayden Daniels, who had 4 total touchdowns and worked on the short passing game to protect those ribs in a 42-19 win. The bye week comes at a great time to get healthy for the stretch run into the playoffs for this team. It’s still possible they could have that first 11-win season in the salary cap era.

Next week: It’s the last of the byes, so with six teams off, we’re peaking early with Packers-Lions on TNF. Should be a good one. I’ll be watching to see if the Steelers take the Browns more seriously this time in a game they really need to win if they want this division title with much tougher games to follow. Seattle-Arizona rematch is also in close timing with the first game, and that could go a long way in determining the NFC West winner. Chargers-Chiefs on SNF is bound to be interesting for obvious reasons. Monday night is just seeing if Cooper Rush can improve to 2-0 against Joe Burrow for two of the most disappointing teams in the league this year.  

2024 NFL Stat Oddity: Week 11

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

I hyped Week 11 as the best Sunday in the NFL this season, and it mostly delivered on that front. The three biggest games were all within one score in the fourth quarter, and it was certainly a pivotal day as Kansas City’s 15-game winning streak ended, and there’s a very good chance the Bills won’t have to worry about going on the road in the playoffs to play teams they’ve lost to like the Ravens and Texans.

But it was a strong week for home-field advantage in big games as the Eagles (Thursday night), Steelers, Bills, and Chargers all won at home in their key matchups. I know home-field advantage is only around 53% this season, which is better than the pandemic years, but it’s still below the usual standard of 57-58%. But I do think you’d still rather be at home than not, and I think it’s especially important for these teams still trying to break through the Kansas City stranglehold in the AFC and get to the Super Bowl like the Ravens, Bills, Steelers, etc.

We had eight games with a comeback opportunity, no team has come back from a 10-point deficit to win this week, but God knows the Chargers tried to give one away. We also had a walk-off blocked field goal for the second week in a row, so that’s wild. Pretty bad week for some kickers who were very recently considered among the best in the league, including Jake Elliott (Eagles), Justin Tucker (Ravens), and Evan McPherson (Bengals).

Still one game to go Monday night, but I think a healthier Houston team does give the AFC a legitimate six-team race for the playoffs. Kansas City’s three-peat path has gotten harder. But on the bright side, they can forget the undefeated talk. They weren’t going to win 26 games in a row to get a three-peat, and while that would be the ultimate achievement in NFL history, I can’t even imagine the pressure that’d leave on the team each week. Plus, they may not have to worry about trying to win in Denver in Week 18 against a Sean Payton (Mr. Bountygate) team that might need to make the playoffs with a win.

But really, this season might just come down to seeing if anyone can make the Lions pay for a Jared Goff pick parade by scoring enough points to beat Detroit in the Super Bowl.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Chiefs at Bills: Mahomes vs. Allen Chapter VIII – Josh Takes Manhattan

The first Kansas City loss since last Christmas is sure to delight many, but I’m not sure it makes that big of an impact on the season. No magical “blueprint” was shown on how to beat the Chiefs, and if it was, hardly any team but Buffalo is equipped to execute it. And I’m not convinced Buffalo can win this game in January, which could still very well be in Arrowhead as the Chiefs are still in first place, the same way it did here.

I’ll get to the Chiefs later, but let’s start by focusing on what Buffalo did well. They clearly care a lot about this rivalry, and we’ve joked (while probably being accurate) that Kansas City has been their Super Bowl in the regular season for four years now. Maybe five if you count the first meeting back in 2020.

But they clearly played a sharp game, and I think Josh Allen has seen Steve Spagnuolo’s defense and blitzes so much every year that he’s an expert at picking them apart. He knows when to run, when to get rid of it quickly, and when to hold it for the big play. That doesn’t mean he always executes, but he didn’t take a sack in this game, and he was money on a lot of big third downs, which is usually a must to beat the Chiefs. Buffalo was 9-of-15 on third down and that doesn’t include a huge penalty on a third-and-9 late in the third quarter on a drive that led to a touchdown and 23-14 lead.

But you saw Amari Cooper chip in a 30-yard one-handed catch on the first third down. Khalil Shakir held onto a clutch 3rd-and-8 pass even when he took a big shot at the end of it. Curtis Samuel played well as they got a touchdown on a pick play. The running backs couldn’t really get anywhere, but when it was 4th-and-2 at the Kansas City 26 with 2:27 left in a 23-21 game, there was never any doubt the Bills were going for it and who they were going to let make the play. Allen took off for 26 yards, and while I’m not sure I agree with Jim Nantz that it’s the play of the year, it’s a candidate as he finished the play for a touchdown to make it 30-21 with 2:17 left.

https://twitter.com/NFL/status/1858303241391427722

As I expected after another Lamar egg in Pittsburgh, Allen’s performance has him as the new MVP favorite (+150 at FanDuel) as the Bills go into their bye week. It was hardly his best game against the Chiefs as I’m sure he’d like to have the interception on a fourth down back, but he scored 30 points on 9 drives against a team that hadn’t given up more than 27 points in the last 30 games. That streak is toast as are many for the Chiefs.

It’s the first loss for the Chiefs since Christmas 2023, but every Kansas City loss is Christmas for members of the Tom Brady cult who have nothing else to celebrate these days. I just want to highlight one of them from Twitter here by explaining in detail why I think it’s silly to pin this loss on the quarterback as the Chiefs have far more pressing issues.

https://twitter.com/ScottKacsmar/status/1858314686078288122

First, there’s a reason Mahomes had a decent 63.3 QBR in this game despite throwing two interceptions and not registering a single rush attempt when we know QB runs inflate QBR more than anything.

It’s because Mahomes didn’t make many mistakes in this game.

Yep, he was intercepted on his first dropback of the day, a bad decision to force a throw instead of taking a sack. But like half of his picks this year, it came early with the maximum time to make up for it.

But this would be the 7th game this season where the Chiefs only had 8 or 9 offensive possessions in a game, so it does make every turnover mean a little more when you just don’t get that many chances with the ball because of the way you play ball-control offense and the way the defense isn’t as good at getting stops (turnovers or otherwise) as people pretend.

A problem not going away for the Chiefs that could ultimately lead to their undoing is the offensive tackle play. That led to some sacks and pressure in this game, which ended their second drive too. But Mahomes threw a touchdown to Xavier Worthy, who had a huge first quarter. However, instead of this being the turning point game for him, he did the same thing he did against Tampa Bay and didn’t get his feet in on what should have been a 30-yard play. Could the throw have been a little better? Yes, but it was in bounds enough that a competent receiver makes the catch. This can’t keep happening, and that killed another drive as the pressure came afterwards for another 3-and-out.

Mahomes followed Allen’s pick with a touchdown drive on a short field, but his defense still gave up a field goal to trail 16-14 at halftime. There was no scoring in the third quarter, but someone please let me know where I’m supposed to be criticizing Mahomes.

The Chiefs only had the ball four times after halftime. Was it Mahomes who got stuffed on a 3rd-and-1 run for another three-and-out? No, that was Kareen Hunt and the line. When Mahomes set up a 3rd-and-1 at midfield on a scramble, a holding penalty brought it back to 2nd-and-14, DeAndre Hopkins couldn’t come down with a good throw while being defended well, and that was another punt. I think without the holding penalty, Mahomes probably has a great shot of leading a go-ahead drive on this one.

Suddenly, the game’s in the fourth quarter and the Chiefs are down 23-14. Mahomes put together one of the team’s best drives this season as they never even faced a third down, avoided any penalties, and he threw his third touchdown to make it 23-21 with 7:53 left. Game on. Why they don’t play with urgency and tempo like that more often is beyond me.

But that’s usually the spot where the defense makes a play. Gets the ball back or at least holds them to a field goal. That’s also the spot where Allen usually makes some mistake like forcing deep balls when he shouldn’t, but none of that happened this time. He ran for a 26-yard touchdown on fourth down instead, and now it’s 30-21 with 2:17 and you need a miracle.

Again, I think Mahomes would have got a score (field goal or touchdown) here had it not been for yet another holding penalty to wipe out an 18-yard scramble to the Buffalo 34. Instead of converting, that made it 4th-and-13, and at that point you’re forcing a throw down the field to Kelce, who just stopped after one of the worst games of his career and watched the defender make the game-ending pick. But the game was already lost before that unless you think they’re recovering an onside kick and scoring again.

So, you tell me where I’m supposed to be finding so much fault on his play. A pick on the first play didn’t lose the game, and they were already losing by two scores when the last play happened. But I guess if you ignore every single thing in between those two plays, it was a pretty awful day for Mahomes.

A loss isn’t the worst thing in the world for a team that needs to be humbled sometimes. They have issues that need to be fixed. When the NBC crew did the halftime highlight for this game, all they mentioned was Mahomes’ weapons. Not a whiff about the offensive line or the defense not getting enough stops, especially with the game in the balance these last few weeks.

I actually think they have too many weapons in a way, and that Andy Reid is doing a poor job of trying to use everybody he can instead of finding who he can trust. A week ago against Denver, Kelce (8) and Hunt (7) had 15 catches between them. In this game, they had a combined 2 catches for 8 yards, and Hunt wasn’t even targeted. Oh, they still completed passes to 11 different receivers, including an eligible lineman, but I’m not sure that accomplished the right goals if Xavier Worthy is the only player who broke 30 receiving yards.

I’m not even sure bringing Pacheco and Hollywood Brown into the mix later is a good thing if they can’t seem to figure out how to properly use what they have. That touchdown drive in the fourth quarter showed how well they can still move the ball when they need to. They need to tap into that, because the days of an elite defense look to be over in Kansas City. Going to have to start scoring more points in games like this.

They don’t need an elite defense to win a Super Bowl, but they aren’t winning 34-30 games on the road in January with the way they’re playing this year. Last January, this defense was about to ruin the repeat by giving the Bills 24 points on just 5 drives. It took a couple of run stuffs and good fortune with Buffalo’s receivers not hauling in some deep balls to turn the tide that day, including a missed field goal by Tyler Bass.

On Sunday, the Bills didn’t make those mistakes, and Allen got the best of them again as he did in 2021, 2022, and 2023. We’ll see if it translates to January should they meet again. While the Chiefs will look different in that matchup, so will the Bills, and we’ll just have to see who makes the decisive plays that day.

Ravens at Steelers: The Rivalry Lives Up to the Hype

Sure, I liked the under, but this was even more on brand for Ravens-Steelers than I imagined. The 18-16 score is kind of Mike Tomlin’s jam as he won two playoff games (2015 Bengals and 2016 Chiefs) by that score, and this is third time in the last decade he’s won a game with six field goals and no touchdowns. The rest of the league has three in that time.

But you have to laugh at how these teams will play the same kind of “neither to 20, first to bleed loses” games no matter who the quarterbacks are and what their offenses are like. The Ravens had a high-flying offense this year and it didn’t matter. The Steelers were scoring a lot and moving the ball well under Russell Wilson and it didn’t matter.

These teams made each other fight for every yard, and it wasn’t pretty, but it was damn entertaining, and once again the Steelers made more plays. The Ravens started the game on the wrong foot with a Derrick Henry fumble, something you rarely see. Isaiah Likely also coughed up a bad fumble before halftime deep in his own end, Justin Tucker is apparently washed as he missed two makeable field goals, the Ravens had 12 penalties, and rookie linebacker Payton Wilson stole an interception from the hands of Justice Hill in the fourth quarter. The Ravens were incredibly sloppy in this game.

That’s not to say the Steelers were sharp. While they held the ball for over 36 minutes, they were 4-of-16 on third down and couldn’t finish in the end zone even once. While Russell Wilson threw a handful of passes away due to pressure, he picked the worst moment ever to force a terrible throw in the end zone, which was intercepted with 9:23 left when the Steelers could have kicked a short one to take an 18-10 lead. Fortunately, the Payton Wilson pick happened a few plays later and the Steelers eventually did go up 18-10. But this was Wilson’s worst game at quarterback this season, and it’s a good thing the defense had his back.

But on their 12th and final possession, the Ravens finally put together some third-down conversions and completions to wide receivers. The drive ended with a Zay Flowers touchdown with 1:06 left, but the Ravens needed a 2-point conversion to tie. You just knew they would keep the ball in Jackson’s hands, but it was still surprising to not see Henry on the field. I’m not sure the Ravens really knew what they were trying to do on the play, and Jackson was forced to throw it up for grabs before taking a sack:

https://twitter.com/BleacherReport/status/1858257907093262337

Jackson is now 5-for-12 on 2-point conversions in the fourth quarter (2-for-8 when trailing) in his career. That’s why I would have liked to see them score in Kansas City on opening night since you know they were going to go for the victory with a 2PC, and you know they’d go to Jackson as they always do. But it’s hard to say their success rate is reassuring in these moments, and this reminded me of the 2021 game in Pittsburgh where T.J. Watt got to Jackson on the game-deciding 2PC in a 20-19 win for the Steelers.

But the game wasn’t over since the Ravens had all three timeouts left. The Steelers brought in Justin Fields on 2nd-and-9 and had a good call with the QB keeper, except he made an awful decision when he slid too early and was a yard short, bringing up 3rd-and-1 instead of clinching the win. That slide rule is something that coaches need to teach these quarterbacks better. It’s over once you start the sliding motion, and there was enough room for Fields to win the game there.

The Steelers had some major issues with 1 yard to go Sunday, but with the game on the line, they gave it to Najee Harris and he grinded it out for the win. The Steelers are now 8-1 against the Ravens since 2020 and most of them have looked like some variation of this.

It’s a tough loss for the Ravens since it’s so hard to say “we’ll get them next time” when seemingly each meeting looks something on the order of this. If the playoffs started today, it would be Steelers at Ravens in the wild card round too in the 6-3 matchup. That’s not ideal for the Ravens nor is being a wild card team in general.

But in one of my favorite stats this year, the Ravens have already lost to all the same teams or quarterbacks they lost to last year (Gardner Minshew, Browns, Steelers, and Chiefs).

https://twitter.com/ScottKacsmar/status/1858259679844942334

A great win for the Steelers (8-2), but I think it’s also a reminder of why they excel against the Ravens and struggle so much with teams like Buffalo and Kansas City. They have to score more against those quarterbacks and they just struggle to stop them better since they are more decisive passers than Jackson, who was again looking confused by this defense in his fifth meeting with them. He was far from the only problem as the Ravens shit the bed in a variety of ways, but his play against this defense doesn’t inspire much confidence.

Bengals at Chargers: Jim Harbaugh’s Memorable Island Game Debut Teases Chargering Before Winning the Game

Let me just paste in my framing of this game from Friday night’s predictions:

Bengals-Chargers: I see this game going one of two ways. It could be a return to Chargering for Jim Harbaugh’s home debut in prime time, meaning a game where everything goes great for a half or three quarters, then they implode and lose to a hungry Cincinnati team that has been close most weeks and needs to avoid going 4-7. But the Bengals also are bad at winning close games like that. So, maybe it’s just a validation that the Chargers are different under Harbaugh, and he’s going to frustrate Joe Burrow with his defense that still hasn’t allowed more than 20 points in any game, and Justin Herbert is going to carve this defense up with his new receivers.

Yep, it was Chargering, but things are different under Jim Harbaugh, so the team still escaped with a 34-27 win. It was also classic Bengals, putting up some stats and making a rally effort only to come up short again in a close game to fall to 4-7. Their brand might be the only brand that can outdo Chargering right now.

Funny how some games play out exactly like you expected. I knew better than to say anything definitive about the Chargers when they were up 27-6 in the third quarter and Justin Herbert was shredding that defense. I’ve seen this movie too many times. Before you know it, the Chargers are giving up touchdowns on fourth downs, Herbert is fumbling after the ball hits a defender’s shin, Burrow is getting short fields, and just like that it’s tied at 27.

But then I’ve seen this before from the Bengals too often as well. You get a chance to take the lead and probably win the game, and you start misfiring on throws. You start getting stuffed in the backfield, dropping passes, penalties, etc. The kicks are longer, and Evan McPherson is not as good as he was a couple of years ago. He misses from 48 yards with half a quarter to go, he misses from 51 with 1:48 left after a couple more Burrow incompletions didn’t make it easier.

But it’s not like the Chargers made it look easy. Herbert flirted with some dangerous throws, missed some wide-open throws, and it ultimately took six possessions before the Chargers finally added to their 27 points with another score. I was starting to think this one was headed for a 27-27 overtime tie or a defense to win it on a return touchdown.

But with 45 seconds left at his own 16, Herbert finally stepped up with some great throws to Ladd McConkey for 55 yards, and J.K. Dobbins finished it off with a 29-yard touchdown run that I’m not sure he really expected to score on as he said he was. You also see why teams like to go down there and kick the field goal, because after scoring with 18 seconds left, the Bengals still had time to set up a very realistic Hail Mary at the end.

I’m not saying Dobbins screwed up by scoring the touchdown that was there, but it’s not the ideal way to finish a game like this and we saw it play out. But the Chargers were able to bat down the Hail Mary and hang on for the 34-27 win. Their 7-3 start ties 2018 for their best 10-game start in the last 15 years.

Watching these teams make so many mistakes when it was 27-27 is a good reminder of why it’s hard to take either seriously for the postseason. But by winning this game, the Chargers have a great shot of being there while being a problem for any team as long as they avoid Chargering as much as possible.

But the difference is they didn’t lose this game like they have in the past. That has to count for something.

Packers at Bears: Walk-Off Blocks Are Pretty Cool

Matt LaFleur was 10-0 against the Bears with every win by at least 7 points. He’s 11-0 now, but this was definitely the hardest win yet. The Packers could not get the Bears off the field on third down that often (9-of-16) as the new offense in the first game after firing Shane Waldron had success. They also held the ball for nearly 37 minutes, so the Packers were just 1-of-5 on third down and Jordan Love only threw 17 passes.

But Love still found Christian Watson on some big plays, resulting in 150 yards on 4 catches. Love was also in a scrambling mood in the fourth quarter, and his legs got him in the end zone with 2:59 left. But it was only a 20-19 lead after the 2-point conversion fail, which feels like every 2PC is failing these days in the NFL.

That opened the door for the Bears to win on a field goal, and for all the justified criticism Caleb Williams has been receiving, this was a huge moment for him. He delivered too as he shook off a pair of sacks at the two-minute warning and overcame a 3rd-and-19 situation.

But let’s not forget that the Bears are horrible in close games under Matt Eberflus. I can understand wanting to be a little conservative at the Green Bay 30 with 35 seconds and one timeout left when your rookie takes a lot of sacks. One there could be deadly.

But to just run for 2 yards and accept the fate of a 46-yard field goal with the so-so Cairo Santos as your kicker? I’m not a fan of that. Sure enough, the Packers pulled off the 46-yard block to win the game just like the Chiefs did to Denver last week.

That has to be one of the worst ways the Bears have ever lost to their bitter rival. But I have to say I like this if we’re going to see endings like this more often. Kickers were getting too good that you just have to pray they’d miss on anything under 50 yards. But instead of hoping the kicker chokes, why not do something about it and step up with a game-deciding block? I’m cool with that.

It also doesn’t hurt that Packers-Chiefs was my preseason Super Bowl pick and they’ve been the biggest beneficiaries of making these blocks this season. But the key thing is they made the block happen. They earned it.

Seahawks at 49ers: Some Wunderkind

Does anyone want the NFC West this year? Another game and another blown lead by the 49ers. But the 20-17 final is misleading as this was a low-possession game, so it was more offensive than that score suggests. But just when you think the 49ers are going to win after taking a 17-13 lead on a touchdown pass to Jauan Jennings, they give up another game-winning drive to Geno Smith after already doing so this season to Matthew Stafford (Rams) and Kyler Murray (Cardinals).

Geno was 0-6 against this team since 2022, but after his run game failed him on a 4th-and-1 earlier in the quarter, his defense got him another chance with 2:38 left, and his 80-yard game-winning drive was as good as any in his career. He had just 18 seconds and no timeouts left when he made the bold decision to scramble for the end zone, and I’m surprised he made it the full 13 yards without getting blown up and ending the game short of the end zone.

https://twitter.com/KoleMusgrove23/status/1858302134795862120

Awful defense. But remember when the 49ers were going to get better with Christian McCaffrey back? Their five longest plays in this game gained 12-to-22 yards, Jennings had four of them, and a Brock Purdy scramble for 13 yards was the other one.

The 49ers (5-5) are not a serious threat anymore. Not like this.

Jaguars at Lions: Nearly Offensive Perfection

Look, if the Jaguars want to fire Doug Pederson after this, I’m not going to say they are wrong. It’s almost certainly going to happen after the season, so if they want to use him as the scapegoat for one of the worst defensive performances in NFL history, then go ahead. It’s not like they were going to win this game with Mac Jones as the biggest underdog (+13.5) of the 2024 season, but Christ, get a stop on the other side of the ball.

Jared Goff went from throwing 5 picks last week to leading 7 straight touchdown drives in this game. He had a perfect passer rating on 29 attempts with 412 yards, so that’s a huge stat line. The only other quarterback I know to go a perfect 7-for-7 at leading touchdown drives was Josh Allen in the 2021 playoffs against New England.

The Lions took Goff out after the seventh touchdown, they scored a field goal on their eighth drive with Hendon Hooker, then they ran out the clock (all 6:45 of it, mind you) on their 52-6 win on the ninth drive.

That’s pretty close to offensive perfection. They won’t get as much credit as Buffalo given the lousy opponent and it wasn’t a playoff game, but this is up there for pure domination. The Lions had 38 first downs and 645 yards. They were 6-of-10 on third down and 3-of-3 on fourth down.

The Lions shouldn’t have an easier game the rest of the season, so this might be their most impressive form yet, but it’s a strong game from a historic perspective.

Colts at Jets: Anthony Richardson’s First Comeback Against a Familiar Foe

In his rookie season in 1998, Peyton Manning had a big moment when he led the first fourth-quarter comeback win of his career against the Jets, who had a great team that year. Well, Anthony Richardson won’t ever touch Manning’s legacy, which I can say with confidence, but he had a much-needed performance against the Jets after getting the starting job back from Joe Flacco.

Richardson was able to complete 20-of-30 passes for 272 yards, he only had one turnover, and he came back from a 24-16 deficit in the fourth quarter with a couple of touchdown drives. He ran in the go-ahead score with 46 seconds left and the defense was able to make it hold up for a 28-27 win.

For Aaron Rodgers, it was a brutal start again after falling behind 13-0. They had the lead late once again, but the Jets blew their third lead of the season. There was enough time to set up a winning kick, but we know those haven’t gone well for them this season either.

What has? The Jets are 3-8 and going into the bye week in one of the most embarrassing seasons in team history, which says a lot given their history.

Falcons at Broncos: Unexpected Blowout of the Week

Whoops, I thought this would be a 1-to-7 point game and it ended up being one of the biggest blowouts of the season with Denver taking it 38-6. I guess we can’t take it for granted that every Kirk Cousins game is supposed to be close as this was already the third time they’ve had a game decided by 18+ points this year.

But this was just an ass-kicking from Denver, and any concern of how they’d bounce back from the upsetting Kansas City loss was wiped away early with Bo Nix having his best game yet with 307 yards and 4 touchdowns on 28-of-33 passing. That’s some Drew Brees type of numbers.

The Falcons (6-5) are still in decent shape in the NFC South, but they might just be fodder for an NFC North runner-up this year. As for the Broncos, they’re eying the No. 7 seed and possibly better. It’s a hard team to figure out but they have had some impressive wins already, and this was another for sure.

Raiders at Dolphins: Good Tight End At Least

Wasn’t expecting the pinnacle of tight end play to come from this game, but Brock Bowers (13-126-1) and Jonnu Smith (6-101-2) showed up for their teams in this 34-19 win for the Dolphins.

In fact, Smith’s long second touchdown put the game away just when it looked like the Raiders could maybe get the ball back late in a 24-19 game. Look, the Raiders need a new coach and quarterback in 2025, but at least they have a heck of a weapon in Bowers. Not doing anything for their complete inability to run the ball, but he can play.

Browns at Saints: Taysom Hill Carrying Derek Carr Again

I have no clue why the Browns (-1.5) were a road favorite in New Orleans, but someone underestimated Tayson Hill having one of the greatest games in NFL history. The Stormin’ Mormon ran the ball 7 times for 138 yards and 3 touchdowns, which is already one of the craziest stat lines in NFL history. Only 21 players are known to have scored 3 rushing touchdowns on no more than 7 runs in a game, but Roland Hooks (1979 Bills) is the only one known to have surpassed 45 rushing yards as he had 70 in a game where he scored 4 touchdowns on 5 carries. But Hill blew that away with 138 yards, including 33 yards on what was technically the game-winning touchdown to break a 14-14 tie with 13:22 left. Hill later iced it with a 75-yard touchdown run with 2:26 left.

Just on that alone it’s a historic stat line. But Hill also caught 8-of-10 targets for 50 yards to lead the team in catches. He completed 1-of-2 passes for 18 yards and an interception, so maybe leave those plays to Derek Carr. But on top of all of that, Hill had a 42-yard kickoff return. That’s 230 all-purpose yards. Maybe 248 if we’re counting the pass completion.

What the hell? The funny part is this is Derek Carr’s second game-winning drive with the Saints, and he was 0-for-3 by success rate to start the quarter before Hill took off for the winning touchdown in a game they’d win by 3 touchdowns. Last year, Carr’s only game-winning drive was a touchdown pass thrown by Hill to break a 17-17 tie with the Bears.

So, that’s two game-winning touchdowns where Hill did the heavy lifting instead of Carr. But what a game for one of the most unique players in NFL history.

Also, I’m absolutely stunned that Jameis Winston passed for 395 yards and the Browns only scored 14 points despite not committing a single turnover. They ended up missing two field goals and turned it over on downs twice, so that at least helps make some sense of that one.

But Hill’s uncanny success? It’s hard to explain. Marquez Valdes-Scantling scoring another big touchdown for the Saints after the Chiefs didn’t want him back and the Bills couldn’t wait to get rid of him is also another strange development with the 2024 Saints.

Maybe the Pope did bless them. Does the Pope support LDS? I don’t know.

Vikings at Titans: Your Standard Ho-Hum Win for a Second-Place 8-2 Team

The Vikings continued their tour of the AFC South, but compared to last week’s 12-7 squeaker in Jacksonville, this was a much more comfortable, low-drama 23-13 win against the Titans. Neither team could run the ball a lick, but Minnesota limited the turnovers to a bad pitch to start the game, shook off Will Levis hitting a 98-yard touchdown pass in the third quarter, and didn’t give up any other touchdowns the whole game while also sacking him 5 times.

Rams at Patriots: Defense Closes for McVay Again

I swear Sean McVay’s Rams can never just close games with the four-minute offense. Even after taking a 28-13 lead into the final quarter, it was still 28-22 in the final minutes as Drake Maye gave them a lot to handle with a 30-of-40 passing day for nearly 300 yards. Another first down could have iced this one, but the Rams ended up punting from the New England 35, which is sadly on brand for McVay in these moments.

Fortunately, the defense had his back as they picked off Maye on a 3rd-and-13 desperation heave with 1:47 left to ice the win and get the team back to .500. A sack coming out of the two-minute warning just blew that drive up for the Patriots, but what’s happened to the defense in New England? That’s supposed to be Jerod Mayo’s specialty and his unit was carved up again by Stafford for four touchdowns from an offense that couldn’t get in the end zone once on Monday night against Miami.

Next week: Week 12 looks like that rare week where you’re waiting for Monday night (Ravens-Chargers Har-Bowl) for the best game. But I can see they didn’t have much left for a follow-up to Week 11 as six teams are on a bye and it really shows. I guess Steelers-Browns could be decent on Thursday night if the Steelers bring their usual “small game” approach to it and Jameis shows up dealing. 49ers-Packers has lost luster but might be able to save the Sunday afternoon slate. Not very intrigued by Rams-Eagles on Sunday night. But a light week before a football overload on Thanksgiving is not a bad idea to be honest. They can’t all be loaded.   

NFL 2024 Week 11 Predictions: Epic Sunday Edition

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

Week 11 in the NFL was always the Sunday to circle in the 2024 season. Sure, there’s that stretch in Weeks 16-17 (12/21 to 12/25) that I wrote about in multiple offseason articles as the key pressure points for everything from the MVP race to the No. 1 seed in the AFC, and that still should be true when the Chiefs play the Texans and Steelers in a span of 5 days, and we’ll also see the Ravens play the Steelers and Texans.

But those games are taking place on Saturday and Wednesday. As far as Sundays go, Week 11 is the big one that could be decisive in the final playoff standings. We’ve already seen the pivotal NFC East game on Thursday night with the Eagles taking a considerable lead over the Commanders. Next, we’ll see a similar AFC North game between the Ravens and Steelers, the Chiefs-Bills showdown with No. 1 seed implications, and Bengals-Chargers is big for the wild card race.

At least one of these epic games should be fantastic and memorable, but we’ll see. We’ve been bamboozled before.

This Week’s Articles

NFL Week 11 Predictions

I had the Eagles winning Thursday night, but I have to say I’m disappointed in Washington. I don’t know if the ribs are still bothering Jayden Daniels or what, but that was his worst game of the season. He couldn’t hit anything over 5 yards, and I don’t know what happened to the run defense in the fourth quarter, or why they didn’t just kick a field goal when they had a chance to go up 13-12. Just a bad game and not a good feeling to lose two games in five days.

Let me do the big games first.

Ravens-Steelers: Pittsburgh is 7-1 in this rivalry since 2020, and they’ve been within one score (or better) in 16 of 18 meetings, so there is almost no recent history of the Steelers losing convincingly to Baltimore. This rivalry loves producing a close finish no matter which quarterback is playing for either team. This is a rare case where QB1 for each team is playing, but the Steelers have been one of Lamar Jackson’s kryptonite teams to go along with the Chiefs and the postseason in general. He hasn’t played them much (4 starts), but the Steelers should be better prepared for this offense than most of the Baltimore schedule. You see the way they eat up NFC teams each year. That shouldn’t happen here.

But I understand why the Ravens are favored as their offense has topped 20 points every week. They’ve been close in every loss. The Steelers are a little scattershot with the offense, but you have to think Russell Wilson can hang in there and deliver some deep balls against that secondary as I expect big things from George Pickens. But it should come down to the usual things like turnovers and who can finish the job. I actually think Wilson has a great shot at delivering another game-winning drive this week as we know the Ravens have blown many leads since 2022. But I will hedge it a bit and take the Ravens to win, Steelers to cover. If Gardner Minshew and Jameis can beat this team…But I expect a battle either way.

Chiefs-Bills: I’m actually surprised the Chiefs are +2.5 in this one. We know they have great success as underdogs in the Mahomes era, but the Bills won’t have Dalton Kincaid or Keon Coleman. Amari Cooper is supposed to play but probably isn’t 100%, and the Chiefs defend WR1’s very well. It just feels like a low-scoring game is about to go down, and that favors the Chiefs, who are so used to winning tight games. Maybe the winning streak is living on borrowed time after last week’s blocked FG saved it, but I still think the Chiefs are the better team, and I think a playoff rematch would look more offensive from both sides. KC isn’t going to cry for Buffalo’s injuries after everything they’ve been through this year with their injuries.

But there is an injury I have my eye on and that’s kicker Harrison Butker. I just wrote that article about Mahomes’ luck with clutch kicking relative to Brady, and it wouldn’t shock me if the Chiefs’ winning streak and perfect season bid ends because their new inexperienced kicker fails on a clutch FG. Call it payback for Tyler Bass missing in last January’s playoff game.

So, I don’t have a great feeling about the Chiefs this Sunday, but I still think they win. At this point, how can you bet against them? But Buffalo has defeated them in three straight regular seasons, so this one might be the biggest challenge left for 17-0.

Bengals-Chargers: I see this game going one of two ways. It could be a return to Chargering for Jim Harbaugh’s home debut in prime time, meaning a game where everything goes great for a half or three quarters, then they implode and lose to a hungry Cincinnati team that has been close most weeks and needs to avoid going 4-7. But the Bengals also are bad at winning close games like that. So, maybe it’s just a validation that the Chargers are different under Harbaugh, and he’s going to frustrate Joe Burrow with his defense that still hasn’t allowed more than 20 points in any game, and Justin Herbert is going to carve this defense up with his new receivers.

I believe in Harbaugh and Herbert more than I do Burrow and Zac Taylor, so I am going with the Chargers here. But I will acknowledge it’s a step up in competition for the defense to cover a weapon like Ja’Marr Chase, who is on fire right now. Picking him for OPOY before Week 1 doesn’t look so bad now.

But this should be a nice, lower stakes game to end what will hopefully be an incredible Sunday.

Jaguars-Lions: Seriously, Mac Jones against a scoring juggernaut? That doesn’t seem fair.

Packers-Bears: Matt LaFleur is 10-0 against the Bears with every win by 7+ points. Let’s back him to keep it rolling while the Bears are in “they are who we thought they were” mode.

Rams-Patriots: I don’t like what I’m seeing from the Rams right now. I think the Patriots can frustrate Stafford enough to require him to win it late on a FG.

Browns-Saints: Surprised Cleveland is favored, because this team hasn’t been good even outside of QB play this year. But the Saints have obviously struggled too. Still, I’m banking on that no 4QC streak for New Orleans to end, and I could see Jameis throwing a game-ending pick in his return to NOLA.

Vikings-Titans: Similar to last week, right? Vikings -5.5 on the road against a bad AFC South team with shoddy QB play expected. But they almost blew it in Jacksonville last week. The Titans play better defense and could really limit the yards Sam Darnold gains while forcing turnovers he’s all too willing to give up. I really want to take TEN +5.5, then I just remember the stupid shit Will Levis does on a football field and figure Brian Flores will find a way to bring that out enough. Not a game I plan on betting on though.

Colts-Jets: Anthony Richardson is back, and I guess I’m back on the Jets? Two teams not going anywhere right now.

Raiders-Dolphins: It was a 20-13 game when they played last year in Miami. Could see something similar, so I’ll give the Raiders a shot at a push or cover after their bye.

Seahawks-49ers: The 49ers own Geno Smith (6-0 since 2022), and I think they complete the sweep here with a 7-point win or better. Healthier offense. Already beat them on the road by 12 even though they tried to give that game away too. They should probably stop doing that this season.

Falcons-Broncos: Ah, the teams who couldn’t stop a 35-yd FG from getting blocked last week. I think the Falcons have the better overall roster, but I have to trust Sean Payton against a former division rival to find a way at home to get it done. I could see Kirk Cousins failing on a GWD again this week. Get Patrick Surtain to limit Drake London.

Texans-Cowboys: This should have been a good MNF game, but the Cowboys are ass and the Texans need to get out of prime time until they start playing better. I fully expect them to beat Cooper Rush, but I’m still going Dallas +7.5 just in case. I don’t trust a team that lost at home after getting 5 INTs last week. They also nearly gave away a game to Buffalo where Allen was 9-of-30. Something just isn’t right in Houston this year.

Hopefully I’ll be back Sunday night with recaps that mean something on the biggest games. It won’t be a RedZone day at all for me. Going to watch BAL-PIT and KC-BUF straight through.

2024 NFL Stat Oddity: Week 10

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

Week 10 in the NFL was almost an overcorrection to last week when favorites dominated the slate from start to finish. In Week 10, favorites were just 3-10 ATS with MNF pending.

But at the end of the day, the teams with the great records were largely winning by the skin of their teeth. It started Thursday night when the Ravens came back from a 21-7 deficit to beat the Bengals in a 35-34 game that came down to a 2-point conversion (and the refs turning a blind eye to Baltimore penalties on it).

Then Sunday brought some even wilder results with the Chiefs (trailed 14-3) and Lions (trailed 23-7) needing field goals to go their way at the end to improve to 17-1 collectively. The Steelers also had a 10-point comeback in the second half to beat the Commanders on the road, and even Kyle Shanahan’s 49ers had a comeback and game-winning field goal in Tampa Bay.

In all, 8-of-13 games had a comeback opportunity and there were seven game-winning drives in Week 10. That made up for the horrible late-afternoon slate that had no drama whatsoever.

It was a good build-up for Week 11, which could be the most crucial week of the 2024 regular season.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Broncos at Chiefs: 8-and-One Hell of a Block to Start 9-0

I guess the Chiefs just hate playing at 1:00 p.m. ET as their last such game was on Christmas last year (a Monday), which was their last loss against the Raiders. But the Chiefs are just showing off now. They have won so many games in a variety of ways in the Patrick Mahomes era, but Sunday’s 16-14 escape over Denver is a new achievement unlocked.

This was not your typical Kansas City letdown game in that there wasn’t a single turnover by either team. No obligatory fumble. No interceptions, unlucky bounce or not, from Patrick Mahomes. It wasn’t a penalty fest either with 9 total for 45 yards.

This was going to be Kansas City’s first loss in 15 games because the Broncos were just a little better on third down against the best third down offense in 2024. The Chiefs delivered some huge plays on that money down, but again, the Broncos were just a little better at converting and forcing pressure on Mahomes to end drives short of the end zone. Bo Nix threw both of his touchdowns on third downs in the second quarter to take a 14-3 lead as he wasn’t phased by Steve Spagnuolo’s defense in his first game against them. That division familiarity with good coaching helps.

But again, there was just enough pressure getting to Mahomes, who took 4 sacks, on money downs that the Chiefs were limited to 16 points. They had a couple of big fourth-down conversions, but they rightfully settled for a 20-yard field goal to take a 16-14 lead with 5:57 left.

In that situation, you don’t expect to never see the ball again, but that’s what happened thanks to Harrison Butker’s kickoff landing short of the kicking zone, which is a penalty that puts the ball at the 40 now. You would think of all weeks, where over 74 million Americans voted for a male rapist over a qualified woman, that Butker would be on point with everything.

Normally, you expect the Chiefs to make the big stops on defense, but it didn’t happen this time. They gave up a trio of third-down conversions, and the last one from Nix to Sutton for 13 yards on 3rd-and-6 should have been the dagger with the Chiefs out of timeouts. You run the clock down and kick the short field goal to win 17-16. Simples.

The Broncos appeared to do it right, and they were going to end the Kansas City winning streak. It was in the bag. But that’s when kicker Wil Lutz was shocked to see Leo Chenal power through the line to block the kick to win the game for Kansas City:

Epic finish, and Chenal was also the player who blocked a San Francisco extra point in the fourth quarter of the Super Bowl to keep it 16-13. So, we can say this is the luckiest win yet for the Chiefs during the 15-game winning streak as they needed to block a kick that has a solid 94% success rate in the NFL.

We can definitely say that. But to say only the Chiefs win like that or that this makes Mahomes the luckiest quarterback ever, well that’s just some bullshit.

First, this was the second blocked 35-yard field goal on Sunday alone. The Saints blocked Atlanta’s 35-yard field goal before halftime in a game Atlanta lost 20-17, but not as many people were following that one. Blocking kicks this short is certainly rare, but again, we just saw one in the same window of games and I mentioned the player who did it (Chenal) also blocked an extra point (35-yard kick) in February’s Super Bowl.

Also, a block is never as lucky as an opposing kicker flat out missing a short kick. Let’s at least make sure we’re crediting Chenal for what he did here.

This is just the fourth time since 1994 where a team blocked a field goal of 35 yards or shorter in the final 2:00 of the fourth quarter in a game that was tied or a team trailed by 1-2 points:

  • 11/7/1999: Down 14-13, Green Bay’s Ryan Longwell’s 28-yard field goal was blocked in a 14-13 loss to the Bears in the closing seconds, the closest example to Lutz vs. Chiefs.
  • 10/19/2003: Tied at 13, Miami’s Olindo Mare’s 35-yard field goal was blocked at the 2-minute warning in what became a 19-13 overtime win for New England.
  • 11/5/2006: Tied at 19, Dallas’ Mike Vanderjagt’s 35-yard field goal was blocked and returned 30 yards by Sean Taylor, and thanks to a facemask penalty on the return, it set up Washington for a 47-yard game-winning field goal as an untimed down in a 22-19 final.

There also were a few games in 1995-2005 where a short kick was blocked in overtime. But if you were in overtime in those years, the game just continued until there was a winner or tie. It wasn’t as do-or-die as the Denver situation Sunday.

So, it’s absolutely a rare finish, but the funniest outcome is that distance (35 yards) instantly reminded me of the Olindo Mare game I’ve tweeted about several times since I joined Twitter in 2011.

https://twitter.com/ScottKacsmar/status/130737154736394240

Not only did the 2003 Patriots block a 35-yard field goal by Olindo Mare with 2:00 left in a tied game, but Mare missed a 35-yard field goal on his own to start overtime. Back then, that’s game over, so that miss is the only reason the Patriots have a record 21-game winning streak to their name. That was Game #3 in the streak, and the misses allowed Tom Brady to throw an 82-yard touchdown pass to Troy Brown, the fourth-longest touchdown pass of his career.

That Mare double whammy for the 2003 Dolphins against New England is the only game in the 21st century NFL where a kicker missed two FGs of 35 yards or shorter in the clutch.

So, spare me the “only the Chiefs and Mahomes” rhetoric with this one. Brady still has the LOAT title locked up. But hopefully this close call will have the Chiefs prepared even better for their huge trip to Buffalo in what could be the Game of the Year in the AFC.

Lions at Texans: Goofed Around with 5 Picks and Won Anyway

In the battle of a top pass offense and pass defense, the defense kind of won, but the Lions somehow still won the game despite Jared Goff throwing 5 interceptions on the road. Goff had been completing over 83% of his passes for the last 6 weeks, but he was just 15-of-30 in this game against a Houston defense that has forced some crazy numbers this year for Josh Allen and Anthony Richardson.

But Goff’s pick parade had the Lions in a 23-7 hole at halftime with C.J. Stroud looking stellar without Nico Collins and Stefon Diggs. Unfortunately, the Texans repeated a lot of their sins when they nearly blew a big lead against Buffalo. Stroud started turning the ball over a couple of times too, and the Texans never scored in the second half.

Oh, there were chances. But Joe Mixon (25 carries for 46 yards) was stuffed all night, and Stroud didn’t finish the job. I think you have to seriously question the Texans trying a 58-yard field goal in a tied game with 1:51 left. It was 4th-and-4 at the time. The Texans already won that Buffalo game with a 59-yard field goal by Ka’imi Fairbairn, so that might have poisoned their thinking process on this one.

But that was not the same situation. That was at the end of regulation. If Fairbairn missed that kick, the game would just go to overtime. If he missed this one, which he did badly, the Lions got the ball at the Detroit 48 and were in business with 1:51 left as they did. There’s also the added benefit of going for it, converting, and possibly running out the clock to make the field goal the last play. That’s why I think Houston likely errored in not going for that one. A past win’s unlikely success potentially leading to a future loss.

The Lions got a little conservative on their ensuing drive too, and they even willingly kicked it on third down instead of trying to gain a few more yards for Jake Bates, who just narrowly made a kick from 58 yards to tie the game with 5:01 left. That one went to the right. This time, Bates was narrowly inside the uprights to the left as time expired on a 52-yard game-winning field goal, shocking the Texans in a 26-23 final.

https://twitter.com/Sandman7773/status/1855832515463757928

That’s about as close as it gets. Like the Chiefs, maybe the Lions are just the chosen team this year. You have to go back to that crazy Cowboys-Bills game in Buffalo on MNF in 2007 to find the last time a road team won after throwing five picks. The Cowboys recovered a late onside kick in that one to pull it off. The Lions were less dire than that, a real indictment on how poorly the Texans played offensively after halftime.

I think it’s safe to say neither C.J. Stroud nor Jared Goff will be winning MVP after this game, but it sure was an entertaining and dramatic mess I’d watch over most games this season.

Steelers at Commanders: In Russ We Trust

This was the game I was most interested in watching Sunday, and for the most part, it delivered with a 28-27 final. But despite all those points, I wouldn’t say the offenses and quarterbacks played that great. In fact, both quarterbacks completed 50% of their passes for about 200 yards and 3 sacks each.

But it was Russell Wilson pushing the ball down the field to his wideouts that made the difference as George Pickens had a great touchdown catch (among other highlights), and it was Mike Williams who delivered in his team debut with the 32-yard touchdown with 2:22 left to put the Steelers ahead for good.

Wilson just lives for those moments, and he might have had the go-ahead drive earlier had Jaylen Warren not fumbled at the 1-yard line. But it’s a tough loss for Washington, which led 24-14 in the third quarter. But the Commanders were just off on some throws by Jayden Daniels, who wasn’t as sharp as his reputation, and his receivers also just dropped some easy ones as there were plays to be had against the Pittsburgh defense.

But the outcome could have absolutely been different had old tight end Zach Ertz been better on a 4th-and-9 at midfield as Washington tried to drive for a winning field goal. Ertz cut the route off a yard too short of the marker, his initial forward progress was good for a first down, but he went backwards on his own, his knee went down before he was touched, and he didn’t get a good extension to pick up that last yard. So, the result was a turnover on downs even if it was really close, and had they ruled it a first down initially, it probably would have stood. But Ertz needs to be a little better there.

Washington still had every timeout left, so the game wasn’t over. But the Steelers sent their offense back out there on 4th-and-1 at the Washington 49 with the likely intention of trying to draw the Commanders offsides instead of actually going for it with 1:02 left. Shockingly, the Commanders bit hard for it quickly and that was enough to move the chains with the neutral zone infraction penalty. Game over.

But that’s the kind of game where you are happy to have someone like Russell Wilson, who lives for those moments, instead of someone like Justin Fields, who shrinks in them. Now we’ll see if the Steelers (7-2) can continue their upset streak against the Ravens at home next week in a very big game in the rivalry.

Vikings at Jaguars: Sam Darnold vs. Mac Jones in Crunch Time Is Pure Hell

A matchup between Sam Darnold and Mac Jones at quarterback is just wrong. It was bad in 2021, and it was even worse Sunday. Darnold couldn’t stop throwing picks early into the end zone, but the good news is the Vikings wised up in time to not let him do it again in the fourth quarter. They just ran the ball and kicked a 34-yard field goal to take a 9-7 lead with 7:14 left.

That’s usually not good enough to hold up in this league, but it is when Mac Jones is filling in for Trevor Lawrence on the other side. Jones had the game’s only touchdown run from 1 yard out, but that would be Jacksonville’s only score in the game as we were reminded of just how brutal Jones is in crunch time.

In the last half of this quarter, the Jaguars had the ball three times, and they ended each with a Jones turnover, including a fumbled snap and two picks before the Vikings ran out the clock in an ugly 12-7 win that could be a sign of more things to come for Darnold this season.

Christ, what a matchup. After the game, Darnold is now 4-17 (.190) at fourth-quarter comeback opportunities in his career while Jones is 2-14 (.125). Two of the worst to ever do it.

But any time I see a quarterback, and this is rare, turn it over three times in one quarter in these situations, I think about the fact that Peyton Manning went seven seasons with just 3 turnovers in losses in 4QC/GWD situations. He threw a Hail Mary interception against the 2003 Jaguars and 2007 Chargers (after Adam Vinatieri missed a 29-yard field goal), and he had a strip-sack against the undefeated Patriots in 2007. That’s it. Then, of course, the Tracy Porter pick-six happened in Super Bowl XLIV, but people acted like Manning always did that when it just wasn’t true.

But Mac Jones? He always does stuff like this. That part is true.

Bills at Colts: Buffalo Glad to Face Quarterback with No Future in Indy

It must have sucked for the rest of the Colts to play well enough to beat Buffalo, but Joe Flacco had other ideas. Not only did he start the game with a brutal pick-six, but he finished with three picks, a strip-sack, and he took a sack on a fourth down near the red zone where the Colts probably should have just taken the field goal in a 20-13 game.

Instead, they lost 30-20, and that’s with a garbage-time touchdown at the end. Just a miserable outing for Flacco, who I initially supported for starting by benching Anthony Richardson. But if these last two games are the best he can muster, they might as well go back to Richardson and see what he has.

Josh Allen had his first multi-interception game of the season, but it didn’t even matter since he still made enough big plays that Flacco couldn’t match on the other side.

It’s not the ideal performance for Buffalo a week before the Kansas City game, but it showed they can create a bunch of turnovers, which could give them a leg up in that one.

49ers at Buccaneers: Stop Drafting Kickers High

Christian McCaffrey made his 2024 debut for the 49ers, but he didn’t find the end zone, and his best contributions were in the passing game with 6 catches for 68 yards. But I’m more interested in the return of my San Francisco whipping boy, kicker Jake Moody.

Moody ultimately won this game, 23-20, with a 44-yard field goal as time expired, but if he did his job better earlier, then it wouldn’t have come down to that. Moody was 3-of-6 on field goals in this game, missing wide from 49, 50, and 44 yards. With the way kickers are crushing the ball this season from deeper distances than that, this simply isn’t good enough for any kicker, let alone one the team infamously used the 99th pick in the third round on in 2023.

I just don’t see a kicker like this lasting long in San Francisco. Fortunately, they had enough weapons to come back and win the game, but this was very close to yet another blown lead as Baker Mayfield had some incredible plays late in the fourth quarter to tie it.

https://twitter.com/NFL/status/1855713396089565354

That’s Nick Bosa getting a stiff arm from Baker, though one has to wonder if this was some Trump voter solidarity, because since when does Bosa not take a quarterback down there? Weird play.

It’s the kind of game where you wonder how much of a difference Mike Evans would have made for the Bucs, who had to settle for a tying field goal, which set up the 49ers’ shot for redemption for Moody on the final snap.

But let’s also add Ricky Pearsall to the list of impressive rookie wideouts in this class. He had a 47-yard touchdown and was big on the game-winning drive. The 49ers only had five players get a target in this game, but even without Brandon Aiyuk being one of them, it’s an impressive group.

Too bad the most talented roster in the league has one of the worst kickers.

Eagles at Cowboys: The Sun Going Down on Jerry World Early This Year

The Cowboys got a boost defensively from the return of Micah Parsons, but their offense totally wasted it with Cooper Rush looking like his body was crippled by arthritis. What happened to the quarterback who threw for over 300 yards in some past starts and had game-winning drives in this offense? He was awful on Sunday, and Trey Lance isn’t a great option going forward. But they should make that change if Dak Prescott is getting surgery Monday to end his season.

But everyone’s season in Dallas is technically over at 3-6. Jalen Hurts turned it over twice and took 5 sacks, and the Cowboys still lost 34-6 at home. That’s what happens when your quarterback just loses the ball like a feeble old man would, and speaking of feeble old men, Ezekiel Elliott coughed one up into the end zone too. Oh, even the sun betrayed Dallas again as CeeDee Lamb couldn’t locate a ball because the sun blinded him.

The Cowboys finished 17-of-29 for 66 yards with a pick and 3 sacks taken. What a product, Jerry.

Titans at Chargers: Our Consistent Chargers

With these teams like the Bengals, you don’t know if they’re going to score and give up 7 points or 35 points. At least the Chargers are consistent as hell this season. They’re going to score 17-to-27 points, and they still haven’t allowed anyone but Pittsburgh to score 20 points on them.

They can run the ball, Justin Herbert makes good decisions, and they just win fairly low-drama games. It happened again against the Titans, who got Will Levis back but still struggled to score even if he wasn’t a turnover machine this week.

Instead, that defense had Levis feeling constipated as he took 7 sacks but only lost 18 yards on those plays. I had to look it up, and Rick Mirer for the 1996 Seahawks is the only other quarterback to take 7 sacks and not lose at least 25 yards in a game on record. Mirer also had 7 sacks for 18 yards lost against the Chiefs. You never want to be compared to Mirer.

Meanwhile, Herbert only had to throw 18 passes, completed 14 of them for 164 yards, ran for a touchdown, and didn’t take a sack. Finally, he’s enjoying the “easy” wins the NFL has to offer from time to time.

Also, I despise Calvin Ridley. He’s going on the permanent ban list after jacking up my parlay where he’d hit his under in receptions (4.5) in a Chargers’ win. He just had to catch his fifth pass for his second touchdown of the day with 49 seconds left to make it a 27-17 final.

But that’s also the first time this season the Chargers had a game go over 39.5 points, so there’s that streak over with.

https://twitter.com/ScottKacsmar/status/1855893726268166575

Falcons at Saints: That Younghoe Not Coo

Everything was pointing against the Saints this week, but that was one of my upset picks as I know division games are weird, and the Falcons really struggled to put the ball in the end zone against the Saints earlier this year.

It happened again, and the Saints didn’t help them out with a pair of return touchdowns this time. Instead, they got two surprise touchdowns to Marquez Valdes-Scantling, who only signed recently after all their wide receiver injuries.

But the Saints didn’t do a good job of finishing this game, a familiar scene for them. They punted on 5-of-6 drives after halftime, but the Falcons couldn’t capitalize as kicker Younghoe Koo ended up missing three field goals, including a 46-yard field goal that hit the upright with 6:39 left. It would have tied the game at 20.

But Kirk Cousins was later picked by Tyrann Mathieu, and making it even worse was that he gave up the 2-minute warning in the process (clock at 1:59 after pick). The Falcons had all three timeouts to get the ball back after the defense did its part with a three-and-out, but that pick was costly, and Derek Carr saved the Falcons a lot of time with an incomplete pass on third down.

So, Cousins had one more shot from his 14 with 1:35 left. But an inefficient drive took too long, and Cousins ended up throwing short of the sticks on the last play, which was no man’s land, but it was also a situation where he needed to do something different than this:

https://twitter.com/GAFollowers/status/1855717819284857026

I know he couldn’t spike it since it was 4th down, but they got to get something more to the sideline to convert and take a shot at the long field goal. But given the way Koo’s day went, he probably would have missed that too.

At least the Saints have ended one of the most brutal 7-game losing streaks following a historic start.

Jets at Cardinals: Cooked

It’s hard to say what the nadir is for this Jets’ season as we thought losing to the Broncos in 10-9 game and losing to the Patriots would be pretty damn low. But they were dominated on both sides of the ball in Arizona in a 31-6 loss where you have to wonder if Aaron Rodgers doesn’t just retire after this mess of a season.

But this game had just 13 total possessions, and I’m not sure I’ve ever seen a game with a number so low that was such a blowout at 31-6. Usually you see a very close game with both teams scoring, but the Jets had two field goals, two punts, a lost fumble, and they turned it over on downs in the fourth quarter when the game was way out of reach.

The Cardinals only had five full possessions deep into the third quarter, and they scored 4 touchdowns and a field goal on them. I guess we have to acknowledge that the Cardinals are decent this season. Murray was 22-of-24 for 266 yards while rushing for a pair of touchdowns as only he can with his unique “scooting” style of runs.

Meanwhile, Rodgers looks every bit his age. He finished the game 6/13 for 31 yards on his targets to Davante Adams.

Patriots at Bears: They Are Who We Thought They Were

How are we in Week 10 and Caleb Williams looks like the worst rookie quarterback now? What exactly did they teach him during the bye week? Anyone can point to the opponent difficulty for the 3-game winning streak against the Rams/Panthers/Jaguars, but it’s not like Commanders/Cardinals/Patriots are a murderer’s row of defenses in 2024.

He took 9 sacks in this game. Isn’t that supposed to be what Drake Maye is facing on the other side? Maye was only sacked once and it didn’t lose any yards. He also threw for 64 more yards on 5 fewer passes than Williams, and he continues to be a more productive runner.

But what a bummer of a performance at home as the Bears were 1-of-14 on third down. That’s how you manage just a single field goal on 11 drives. The Bears didn’t have an official turnover in this game, but that might have been more fun than watching them punt 8 times in a 19-3 loss.

Giants at Panthers: Germany Can Keep Daniel Jones

With each week we should get closer and closer to not having to see Daniel Jones in a Giants uniform, especially not in an island game. I slept thru most of this one, but I saw him run for a touchdown to make things interesting in the fourth quarter before both backs turned it over. That includes Tyrone Tracy deflecting the ball to the defense in the red zone of a 17-14 game.

Then Tracy fumbled in overtime too, which makes you wonder if he’s just had enough of Jones’ shit and wants him out of town too. The Panthers were gifted a game-winning drive by just running it 3 times for 5 yards before a 36-yard field goal won the game 20-17 in overtime. That’s a little 2-game winning streak for Dave Canales’ team now.

New York (via New Jersey) football is truly the worst these days. But I’m not sure how they expect to grow the game in Germany when we’re clearly not sending our best even if they turn out to be low-scoring games that are close at the end like Colts-Patriots was last year.

But we really need to stop unleashing Daniel Jones on millions of people who just want to watch a good game.

Next week: Week 11 might be as good as it gets this regular season. Granted, most of the games look like shit on paper, but just think about the highlights. Commanders at Eagles for the first time this year on Thursday night for control of the NFC East. Ravens at Steelers is a monster game in the AFC/AFC North at 1:00 p.m. Chiefs-Bills is the huge 4:25 showdown. Even Bengals-Chargers on SNF could be pretty good and has importance in the wild card race. Not exactly sure which angle I want to write about this week, but I’ll have something about these games.  

NFL 2024 Week 10 Predictions: All Eyes on Washington Edition

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

If you thought the title would be a nod to the 2024 election this week, you’d be right. If you think I’m going to give Orange Caligula any more oxygen in this space right now, you’d be wrong. He should die of gonorrhea and rot in hell. The Washington I’m watching this weekend is the Commanders, and I’m excited to finally see a full live game with Jayden Daniels. I think Steelers-Commanders is clearly the highlight game on Sunday, and we’ll see if a return by Nico Collins in Houston could bolster that matchup on SNF.

But I also want to quickly point out that Week 9 was a great reminder that you don’t always have to pick underdogs just for the sake of picking them. I’ve been guilty of that a lot this season as I didn’t want to just publish picks where the favorite covers and wins. But in Week 9, favorites were 14-1 SU (God damn Saints) and 10-5 ATS. Almost perfect.

Favorites have been on a good run after a lot of upsets early this season in the games with the biggest spreads. But now that we’re into the second half of the 2024 regular season, we are seeing this is a top-heavy season. There are nine teams with just 2 wins going into Sunday. The last team who makes the playoffs in the AFC could be a mess unless the Bengals or Jets finish strong. The NFC is stronger, but the NFC West has been messy with the teams blowing double-digit leads against each other as they jumble around .500 right now. The Cowboys have fallen apart sooner than expected.

It’s getting easier to pick winners since the games are usually playing out as lopsided as they look on paper now. But I will say that doesn’t apply to Sunday’s first game in Germany where we somehow sent the Giants and Panthers. We’re not sending (or voting for) our best.

This Week’s Articles

NFL Week 10 Predictions

Silly me for thinking the Ravens-Bengals would at least try to play a different game script than Week 5. But it turned into more of the same with the Bengals choking away a game they should have won (again). Maybe neither team ultimately decides who wins the Super Bowl this year, but the thin margin in those games is something else. We’re two solid snaps away from the Bengals at 6-4 and the Ravens at 5-5 right now.

Panthers-Giants: Not a chance I won’t be sawing logs during this one. But I think Carolina can build off its win and use Chuba Hubbard against that poor run defense. Giants having to win by 6.5 against anyone with Daniel Jones feels like a lot.

Patriots-Bears: Not sure how to react to Bears playing so poorly on offense since the bye. Just banking on hope that Maye makes some mistakes and Caleb channels his 2022 Justin Fields against the New England defense with a big game.

Bills-Colts: I’m very tempted to take both the Bills and Chiefs to struggle this Sunday with their big showdown a week away. Shades of 1990 Giants-49ers when they were supposed to meet undefeated and both lost the week before. I think Joe Flacco will definitely score more this week to keep the job, but I’m still going to trust the Bills on the road. But I won’t be surprised if they win by 3 and don’t cover.

Vikings-Jaguars: Can Sam Darnold get a call for a blow to the head this week? I just think the Vikings are better on both sides of the ball and should win by a touchdown.

Broncos-Chiefs: Odds are suggesting a 24-17 game and that passes the sniff test for me. Division games are weird. Sean Payton got a couple of cracks at the Chiefs last year. At least Mahomes shouldn’t have the flu this time, but I don’t think the Chiefs will score a ton against a team that knows them well and has mostly played good defense this year. All comes down to how Bo Nix handles the blitzes sure to come his way, but I think his mobility could be very useful here. I’ll go with the KC classic: they win and don’t cover.

Falcons-Saints: This is going against the grain but I’m calling for the upset. Everyone is shitting on the Saints, including the Pope having fun with hashtags on Twitter. But I think they get a first-game interim coach boost, they’re due for a 4QC win (none since 2023 started), and the Falcons needed 2 return touchdowns to beat them at home earlier this season. The losing streak stops here. If not, then I’m probably not picking them the rest of the season in any game.

49ers-Bucs: CMC is finally back, but even if he wasn’t, I think the 49ers coming off a bye and feeling healthier is an easy pick against the Bucs, who left the tank empty on Monday night in KC. I view this game quite similarly to Jags-Vikings this week. I know, the 6.5-point spread is the kiss of death this season, but I just feel good about the 49ers here.

Steelers-Commanders: I think it’s a 23-20 type of game that comes down to the last seconds and a FG. I’m going to go with Washington, because I believe the Steelers aren’t well prepared for this impressive rookie who can attack them at every level of the field. Unfamiliar opponents. Of course, it wouldn’t shock me if the Steelers won 23-17. Why that score? That’s the score they won by on the road in Arizona in 2019 against Kliff Kingsbury and Kyler Murray, and that’s the score Washington won by in Pittsburgh in 2020 on a Monday, the game that was the beginning of the end for the Pittsburgh offense looking functional under Big Ben. But I’m still going to trust Jayden Daniels in this one as he’s actually 5-0 ATS as a favorite this year. It should be fun.

Titans-Chargers: Will Levis is back, and he’s facing the No. 1 scoring defense? Then I think the streak of games under 40 points for the Chargers can continue. Give me LA 23-13.

Jets-Cardinals: It’s not so much that I believe the Jets are going to start reeling off wins, but I just don’t know what to make of Arizona yet. Apparently I’m not alone as this is a small spread in a week with 8 games having a spread of 5.5 and higher.

Cowboys-Eagles: You might say the Eagles should dominate, but they nearly blew a 22-0 lead to Trevor Lawrence last week. Mike McCarthy usually does a respectable job with backup QBs like Cooper Rush, who made it a 20-17 game in the fourth quarter in 2022 when he was in Philly on SNF with the Eagles during their peak run to that Super Bowl year. He lost 26-17 in the end, and he threw 3 picks, but I think the Cowboys will actually make this respectable before losing again. Backdoor cover is always an option.

Lions-Texans: Preview link above but I just think the Texans are the inferior team here, and the Lions should keep rolling. But I am intrigued by the No. 1 defense in lowest completion % vs. No. 1 QB in highest completion % as Goff is over 83% in his last 5 games. But if it’s actually close, don’t discount some C.J. Stroud magic now that Nico Collins is back. Still, it’s a bummer Diggs tore his ACL as this one had high potential for a non-conference game on SNF. It still might deliver.

Dolphins-Rams: I always say fade the Dolphins on the road against good teams, but are the Rams still good? It’s hard to say, but I’m taking them with their weapons. Hopefully we can avoid a Puka ejection this week.

NFL 2024 Week 8 Predictions: Ducking the Dogs Again Edition

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

As much as I want to believe most NFL teams are mediocre at best this season, I find myself looking over the Week 8 schedule and again struggling to pick upsets. Favorites have had a strong two weeks after faltering to begin this season.

We already had an upset on Thursday night, but it would have been nice to get some actual clarity on the health of the Rams’ wide receivers since that clearly makes a difference. I thought Cooper Kupp had a shot to play, but I didn’t know Puka Nacua was even going to be active until 50 minutes before kickoff. Oh well.

But I think this week has taken a hit as the big 49ers-Cowboys game looks less important with both teams struggling and missing so many key players. Might actually make for a better game and give Dallas more of a chance, because the 49ers have been a big roadblock for them in the NFC since 2021. But it’s not quite must-see TV this Sunday night.

Funny enough, Commanders-Bears was supposed to be a great game for Week 8 so much that the league even flexed it into the late-afternoon slot. In any other year, we’d groan at a matchup between these teams being shown to most of the country, but this one actually had us interested with these rookie quarterbacks. Of course, Jayden Daniels has a rib injury and it isn’t looking great for him to play. Guess we’ll see.

But yeah, I have low expectations for this week, which means it will probably be an epic Sunday of close games after so few last week.

This Week’s Articles

NFL Week 8 Predictions

Like I said, already failed by the Vikings, who lost their second game this week.

Cardinals-Dolphins: Some hedging here with ATS/ML differences. Could be a rough game for the Cardinals, but they’ve also won on the road against the Steelers and Eagles last year under Gannon. But with Tua Tagovailoa coming back, I could see a 3-point win here for Miami. I believe Kyler and Tua played a game like that in 2020 already.

Jets-Patriots: Look, I’m picking the Jets until they end this losing streak. Belichick is gone, so they can start beating the Pats again, and so far NE is their only dominant win of the season. It may not be 24-3 again, but despite Drake Maye getting production in the passing game for this team, let’s not ignore that they still lost by 20 and 16 points in his starts.

Eagles-Bengals: Nice matchup of teams who peaked in 2022. I’m trusting A.J. Brown to have a big game against that secondary, and I trust Jalen Hurts more than Joe Burrow with the game on the line. Both teams look fishy at times, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see it come down to the end.

Packers-Jags: I think Jordan Love has a big game against that defense and Trevor Lawrence struggles against a GB defense that held C.J. Stroud under 100 yards last week. Sweat-free GB win.

Falcons-Bucs: I would absolutely take Tampa in this rematch from Week 5 if Mike Evans and Chris Godwin weren’t out injured. I don’t trust the remaining wideouts for the Bucs, and I think Cousins will bounce back from a bad loss against Seattle against the defense he torched for 509 yards already. Bucs just looked terrible on defense Monday night, leaving receivers open everywhere.

Ravens-Browns: Maybe a trap game for Ravens coming off big road MNF win where they still gave up a lot of points in the end. I think with Kevin Stefanski having Jameis Winston, Nick Chubb, and David Njoku to run this offense instead of Amari Cooper dropping passes from Predator will be good for Cleveland. It just won’t result in a win this week.

Colts-Texans: Indy gave Houston a lot of trouble in Week 1, but the Texans were at their most efficient on offense with Joe Mixon and Nico Collins available. That won’t be the case this time, but Anthony Richardson probably won’t hit a 60+ yard bomb again either. Give me Houston to rebound from last week’s loss.

Titans-Lions: I think this is the biggest spread of the season. I can see Detroit winning a 34-17 game here to cover. The Titans just can’t score much while we know Detroit is rolling right now with big plays.

Saints-Chargers: Very tempted to take Saints ATS but they just looked so bad against the Broncos at home. Harbaugh will have the defense playing tough, and Herbert will get into the end zone this week.

Bills-Seahawks; Good upset spot for Seattle but I just don’t see it without DK Metcalf available. He’s the kind of athletic freak who would be a difference maker in this one as you need to get ahead of Buffalo early and be ready to score a fair number of points.

Bears-Commanders: I think the spread is suggesting bad news for the Commanders getting Jayden Daniels in this matchup. If he plays, you have to worry about an early exit again, and Marcus Mariota likely won’t play as well against a solid defense with an improved offense coming off the bye. But I’m avoiding that game for bets for now until we learn more about Daniels.

Panthers-Broncos: You think Bo Nix getting a 10.5-point spread is funny? It seems crazy, but Bryce Young has scored 13 points in his last 4 starts, the Denver defense is playing great, and the Panthers won’t have Diontae Johnson or Adam Thielen. It could end 20-3 for all we know.

Chiefs-Raiders: I think the Chiefs make up for their Christmas loss to the Raiders with an impressive double-digit win, which would be their third in a row by the way. They like playing in Allegiant Stadium.

Cowboys-49ers: Got the preview link above, but basically I think San Francisco has owned this matchup on both sides of the ball. Dak Prescott hasn’t broke 12 points in his last two games against SF, and the Cowboys won’t have Micah Parsons on defense.

Giants-Steelers: Pittsburgh is 21-0 at home on MNF since 1992. Granted, their last loss was to the Giants in a 23-20 game in 1991. But I am going to trust Russell Wilson to put up some points (not as many as last week), and T.J. Watt to do his best against Daniel Jones.

2024 NFL Stat Oddity: Week 7

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

I loved the NFL’s Week 7 schedule more than I probably loved the games themselves on Sunday. It wasn’t bad, and most of the top games delivered, but it definitely felt like a return to a lot of weak offense around the league.

 It’s also been oddly one-sided as just four games had a comeback opportunity going into Monday night’s double-header that should hopefully add to that total with Baltimore’s shaky closing abilities and the Chargers just generally being the Chargers.

But that’s a low number of close games despite four teams coming back from a 10-0 deficit to win (Jaguars, Lions, Colts, and Bills). The only fourth-quarter lead changes happened in the two NFC North games.

There were also many quarterback injuries in games, including the one that most people had no problem seeing. That doesn’t mean you wished for it, but you certainly aren’t going to shed a tear or think of it as a loss for the team.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Lions at Vikings: Game of the Week

With the 49ers falling apart, these NFC North games are turning into the biggest ones in the NFC this season, and Week 7 was one hell of a time to test out the Lions and Vikings. We got to see the Vikings after a bye week, and the Lions right after losing Aidan Hutchinson last week.

This 31-29 game managed to exceed the hype. The Lions failed on one of the worst fake punts you’ll ever see to start the game, then lost David Montgomery to an injury and trailed 10-0. Hard to start worse than that.

But Jared Goff completed his first 15 passes, Jahmyr Gibbs broke off a long touchdown run, and the Lions soon led 21-10 at halftime. I liked Detroit in this one because it already has two games of experience late last season against Brian Flores’ defense. They wouldn’t be as shocked by it as these other teams have been this year.

But that doesn’t mean Goff wasn’t under pressure often and had to carve up the blitz. He took 4 sacks and fumbled twice (neither lost) in the game, so it was a tough one. But he hung in there and completed 22-of-25 passes for 280 yards as he is playing as well as any quarterback right now.

Sam Darnold actually had some similar numbers in this game with 22-of-27 for 259 yards and 4 sacks. Justin Jefferson had another big game against the Lions, including a touchdown in the third quarter to make it 21-17.

But while Montgomery returned to the game, it wasn’t for the best. With 6:00 left, Montgomery lost the ball on a run and the Vikings scooped it up for a stunning 36-yard touchdown to take a 29-28 lead with 5:50 left. Huge miss on the 2-point conversion, however.

The Lions went three-and-out with Goff getting sacked on third down again. The Vikings could have ran out the clock on offense, but they too went three-and-out. Gibbs took over instead of Montgomery for the game-winning drive and delivered a huge moment with the drive’s first 34 yards. Amon-Ra St. Brown caught a 14-yard pass, and the Lions were in field goal range.

I know Dan Campbell is as aggressive as they come, but I didn’t love the conservative approach with conceding the long field goal. I’d want to get as close as possible for an unproven pro kicker in Jake Bates, the UFL standout. But from 44 yards away, Bates delivered on the biggest kick of his brief NFL career to put the Lions up 31-29.

Darnold had 15 seconds left at his own 30. He got the ball to midfield, and I’m not sure an illegal formation penalty on a spike with 1 second left (debatable) shouldn’t just be a game-ending penalty with a 10-second runoff. That felt fishy. But the Vikings had one last chance for a Hail Mary, and you never know with Jefferson down there. However, it ended in a fitting way as the Lions sacked Darnold on his ass to end the game and escape with the win.

In the end, the big plays by the Lions were too much for Minnesota to overcome. But I’m looking forward to the other NFC North clashes this year when the Packers get involved too.

Chiefs at 49ers: Super Bowl Rematch Sees These Teams Further Apart as Injuries Mount

To date, the only direct Super Bowl rematch was Dallas vs. Buffalo in 1992-93. With the way these teams are going, we won’t see another in February. Injuries are doing their damage, but the Chiefs remain the NFL’s last unbeaten at 6-0, winners of 12 straight, while the 49ers are flailing at 3-4 after this 28-18 loss at home despite being a 2.5-point favorite.

That means Patrick Mahomes continues to be the ultimate underdog with an 11-3 SU record, but this game was little about him. This was a showcase for the defense, and even if you acknowledge the injuries for the 49ers, they still had talent on that field and the system and mind of Kyle Shanahan calling plays. The Chiefs forced Brock Purdy into one of his roughest games in the NFL as he was intercepted three times, including a total headscratcher in the end zone in the fourth quarter when the 49ers trailed 21-12. Even if he wasn’t pressured as he threw it, that pass looked like it was going right to the defender either way.

Mahomes also had two interceptions in this game, but while he’s had some headscratchers this year, it’s hard to say he did wrong on a tipped pass at the line and a play where the receiver (Xavier Worthy) fell on his route. There were at least four Chiefs who slipped on Mahomes’ incompletions in the game.

But this is the value of the Chiefs in 2024. Even when the team is turning it over multiple times or doing something silly like a fake punt that failed miserably, they overcome it with their defense, and they still score a fair number of points. They scored 28 points in this one with three of those touchdown drives from long distance.

Mahomes’ best play was as a runner when it was a tight 14-12 game. He tightrope-walked the sideline and stayed in bounds for a 33-yard run that set up his first touchdown run since 2022 on a 4th-and-goal at the 1 to make it 21-12.

Still, it’s wild to see the injuries for these teams. Both starting running backs (Christian McCaffrey and Isiah Pacheco) were out. The Chiefs were already missing their top wideouts (Rashee Rice and Hollywood Brown), and then their new de-facto No. 1, JuJu Smith-Schuster, left the game early after aggravating his hamstring. The 49ers lost Deebo Samuel quickly to an illness, Brandon Aiyuk was knocked out with a potentially serious injury, and Jauan Jennings, who actually leads the team in receiving yards before this game, was already inactive. Just a mess.

But the Chiefs still found ways to score four touchdowns and actually were leading by 16 points before a San Francisco touchdown made it a 28-18 final. That final score by the Chiefs got them to 28 points, the first time they scored that much during this 12-game winning streak.

That just creates a new record, however. The Chiefs are the first team in NFL history to win 12 straight games without scoring more than 28 points in any of them. Their next opponent (Raiders) is the last team to beat them, but this season is beyond fucked if that ends up being their first loss in 2024.

It’s coming eventually with the way they’re playing, but they were still impressive enough in this game. Not everyone can do that to the 49ers, injuries or not.

Texans at Packers: My Preseason Hype Teams Played the Walk-Off FG Finish I Expected

I’ve been high on the Texans and Packers as “new powers” in the league since February really. I was looking forward to this one since we probably won’t get many games between Jordan Love and C.J. Stroud, but I was stunned at just how well Green Bay limited the Houston passing game.

The Packers have feasted on turnovers this year while still giving up their share of yards and points. But this was an impressive performance where they really held Stroud in check without a single takeaway. They held him to 86 passing yards on 21 throws, and they sacked him 4 times while flustering him all day. The Texans scored on a lot of short fields and couldn’t really sustain offense.

On the other side, Jordan Love had one of those mixed games where he made some “wow” throws, but he had a few more picks, and he couldn’t get some of his best receivers going against this pass defense.

But it was a close game as I expected. I picked the Texans to win because I trust Stroud more than Love in those moments. Sure enough, Stroud saved probably his best throw of the game for a late third down when the Texans were driving in a 21-19 game late. But the Packers had all of their timeouts, and the Texans failed to get the touchdown or a first down to run out the clock for their field goal. They had to settle for taking a 22-21 lead with 1:44 left.

A lead is a lead, but that’s not a very safe one with that much time left. However, I wanted to see how Love would fare here as we have seen him struggle to come up with a field goal in these moments. Think of last year in games like Atlanta, Denver, or San Francisco in the playoffs. He was only 2-8 at comeback opportunities before Sunday.

Also, the Packers have been going through kickers like crazy, so you had to wonder how newly signed Brandon McManus would do. I know him best from Denver, and he’s been an adequate enough kicker in his career.

But Love had to get him in range, and that didn’t prove to be a big problem this time. He marched the offense 44 yards in a hurry. McManus was left with a 45-yard kick to win it, and after an icing attempt, he delivered the goods for a 24-22 win. That’s a quality one for the Packers this year.

Jets at Steelers: Tomlin Knew

For the last six weeks, I’ve basically come on here and said that I’m not impressed with what Justin Fields is doing in the Pittsburgh offense. He looked a lot like the quarterback from Chicago in that he’s slow with his decisions, he rifles too many throws, doesn’t make the touch passes on time, he’s a magnet for sacks and fumbles, and he’s possibly the least clutch QB of the 21st century.

Yet, the NFL groupthink seemed to get stronger every week that Fields is now good, and the Steelers would be crazy to bench him for old Russell Wilson. They kept citing the 4-2 record, even though the Steelers had not won a game when the opponent scored more than 13 points all season. The offense, including Fields himself, had a lot of mediocre rankings as well. These were results you could certainly improve on with a quarterback of Wilson’s experience. He only was out because of his calf. He was going to be the Week 1 starter otherwise.

So, I was always hoping for Mike Tomlin to come to his senses and start Wilson, but I was skeptical he’d actually do it because of the team’s record. Yet, Tomlin had the balls this week to defy that national NFL groupthink and go with Wilson. People created silly stats like the “first 4-2 quarterback to get benched” when it’s not even the first time in Pittsburgh history. Joe Gilliam was benched for Terry Bradshaw in 1974 despite starting 4-1-1, a better record than 4-2. But I guess since it’s not exactly 4-2, they think their insignificant stat has meaning. Screw that.

I still liked the Jets to win the game Sunday night, but that’s because I had much higher expectations for Aaron Rodgers and that offense after a good showing (kicker aside) against Buffalo last week, and the addition of Davante Adams via trade. Sure enough, Rodgers threw his first pass to Rodgers, but the receiver couldn’t pull it in, and he finished with just 3 catches for 30 yards on 9 targets as Allen Lazard and Garrett Wilson looked better in that offense.

Well, Wilson was fine until the third quarter when he popped an easy catch into the air for an interception that was returned to the 1. There’s your game changer. Rodgers didn’t have a good game and especially not a good second half, but that second pick was not his fault at all. The Jets just have many issues.

As for Wilson, he no doubt got off to a bad start. After he attempted to kill Earthworm Jim on back-to-back plays, I thought he really did go The Full McNabb with 2011 Vikings vibes. Someone sign Christian Ponder.

But games are 60 minutes, and we know even in Russ’ prime he could start a game ugly. Before you knew it, he had as many passing yards at halftime as Fields had in half of his full games this season. Wilson throws with more touch, he gives his receivers more opportunities down the field, and he makes better and faster decisions with the ball than Fields. Did he get lucky on a few passes? Sure, but it was his first game in 10 months, and his first with Pittsburgh. Do you remember how Rodgers looked in his first games of the last two seasons with New York, or Tom Brady’s debut in Tampa Bay? It was worse than this.

Wilson did a very nice job, and he showed he was mobile enough to only take 1 sack on the night. He also didn’t throw any picks. Justin Fields has literally never had a start in the NFL where he threw no picks and didn’t take multiple sacks. Wilson did that in his first game with Pittsburgh. He also didn’t fumble like Fields did weekly. The running game also didn’t die with him in there as Najee Harris continues to look highly motivated these last two games. George Pickens also caught his first touchdown of the season.

Russ had a definite huge impact on the offense, and he feels more in control at the line than Fields ever did. He won’t run as fast as Fields, but he rarely needs to. That’s not the kind of quarterback play that’s going to take you far, and Tomlin understands that. I think benching Fields will prove to be one of his smartest moves in years.

The quarterback who actually looked too old and slow on Sunday night was Rodgers. Is he going to trade Wilson next after that dropped pass turned pick? They’re 2-5 and fading fast even in a weakened AFC.

But Sunday night was a great one for Tomlin and anyone who didn’t see what the fuss was with Fields all these weeks.

Titans at Bills: Box Score Blowout Doesn’t Tell the Story

The numbers are going to make this one look like a boring rout, a 34-10 blowout where Josh Allen threw for over 300 yards, Amari Cooper caught a touchdown in his team debut, and the Titans still struggled to score with Mason Rudolph starting for an injured Will Levis (AC joint).

Those things are all true, but this was a tough game for Buffalo deep into the third quarter. The Bills went three-and-out 3 times in the first quarter and fell behind 10-0. Cooper dropped his first target. Rudolph was outplaying Allen.

But the Titans really screwed themselves to start the second half when they went for a 4th-and-2 at their own 44 and Tony Pollard was stuffed for a big loss. Why would they do that with a 10-7 lead? The offense was not thriving to the point where you could trust them to convert and actually turn it into points.

The defense was playing well, and Buffalo was struggling on offense. This just gave them a huge boost as Allen took the field 41 yards away from the end zone and the drive ended with Cooper scoring. The Bills led the rest of the game. Terrible decision by the Titans to go for it.

The Bills padded some stats late with the game in hand, including a 16-yard touchdown run after the 2-minute warning. But the Titans had a shot for most of this game. Far from your normal 34-10 rout.

Seahawks at Falcons: Surprising Rout

These teams have played many close games, and you just expected that sort of finish in a passing fest between Geno Smith and Kirk Cousins. Actually, I thought it’d be a passing clinic with Geno facing a defense without a pass rush, but he moved around well and threw for 181 yards at halftime. I just didn’t expect him to barely finish the game with 200 yards as the run game and defense showed up for Seattle to finish the Falcons off in maybe their worst team performance of the season.

Just when you thought Cousins would make it a one-score game while trailing 24-14 in the fourth quarter, the Seahawks had the plot twist with a strip-sack and recovery for a touchdown to make it 31-14 with 12:4 6 left. Cousins threw another pick on the next drive, and we ended up seeing the first NFL completion of rookie Michael Penix’s career before this one ended 34-14.

No quarterback controversy in Atlanta (yet), but this one surprised me as I thought for sure the Falcons would do more damage against that Seattle defense in the dome.

Eagles at Giants: The Saquon Revenge Game Delivers

Revenge games can be overrated but running back Saquon Barkley had one of the best you’ll ever see for the Eagles against his Giants. He really carried the offense with 176 yards on just 17 carries, and he scored the game’s first touchdown, which might have been enough given the Giants could only muster a field goal in the 28-3 blowout.

That left Jalen Hurts with an easy job as he only had to throw for 114 yards. The game was avert-your-eyes bad for pass blocking as all four quarterbacks who played took sacks, including backup Kenny Pickett, and there were 13 sacks total between the teams.

Naturally, Daniel Jones took the worst of it with 7 sacks in a game where he didn’t have left tackle Andrew Thomas (surgery). Jones finished with 43 yards on 28 pass plays, which is pathetic even for his low standards.

The Giants punted 11 times, so they were even absurdly boring in blowout fashion. At least throw some picks. Risk something.

Bengals at Browns: When Losing Is Good

The Browns got Nick Chubb back for the first time in over a year, and they lost Deshaun Watson for the season to a torn Achilles on a non-contact play. All in all, that sounds like a great day, right?

Oddly enough, Chubb scored a touchdown on the drive where Watson was injured right before the half. Almost as if karma was taking over and the fortune was changing for Cleveland. But I thought it was odd before the game that Jameis Winston was announced as the No. 3 quarterback, demoted for the young Dorian Thompson-Robinson. What did Jameis do to get demoted? I thought he was the best quarterback on this roster.

It may have cost the Browns too, because DTR stunk off the bench. He completed 11-of-24 passes for 82 yards with multiple picks. A 34-yard run was his longest play on a day the Browns couldn’t actually run the ball on Cincinnati, a defense that has done a huge turnaround these last two weeks thanks to playing lines like the Giants and Browns in 2024.

But DTR was injured, allowing Winston to play in the fourth quarter. But it was too late by then. The Bengals started the game with a 100-yard kickoff return touchdown, but that Joe Burrow-led offense managed just two touchdowns in this 21-14 final. Another ho-hum performance where the Bengals were fortunate to be playing a bad team.

But the Watson story is over for 2024, and maybe that could help the Browns move on from him faster. Cleveland players supported Watson after the game and criticized the fans for cheering his injury. I could see where they’re coming from as teammates, and probably as players who hope they aren’t cheered while injured down the road. But they should also understand why fans feel that way about Watson.

Of course, I wouldn’t expect Winston or Myles Garrett to be the voice of reason on this topic. Winston is especially a bad messenger for this, and Garrett should know better as someone who is supposed to be the face of the franchise.

But it was nice to see Chubb back and in the end zone. More of that going forward.

Patriots vs. Jaguars: Do I Get on a Soapbox Again About That Strategy?

I didn’t get up to watch this one and see the Jaguars explode back from a 10-0 hole, but I was awake to see the 2-point conversion strategy become a talking point again. The Patriots were down 25-10, scored a touchdown with 8:22 left, decided to go for 2, didn’t get it, and they trailed by 9+ for the rest of the game, which eventually became a 32-16 loss after a poor finish.

I am consistently against going for 2 on the first touchdown as it is the strategy more likely to lead you into needing one onside kick recovery, if not two, and I never want anything to do with that hopeless endeavor. I also think the later in the game, the worse of a strategy it is. This wasn’t super late, but you have to keep in mind the Patriots hadn’t scored since the first quarter.

Also, when people talk about having “more information” aspect of it, do they ever consider things like the fact that the Patriots never ran a play from deeper than the Jacksonville 16 in this game? Seriously. Their failed 2-point conversion attempt was their only snap inside the final 15 yards of opponent territory in the game. Not exactly much practice at running your red zone and goal line packages in this game. Instead you’re completely cold to that area in the game, and now you have to make this crucial play or you’re down 2 scores with half a quarter left. Just something to consider that I never see considered. I don’t think confidence gets considered enough, not to mention the hopelessness felt from being down 2 scores.

But I don’t feel like getting into it any more over an inconsequential game between two of the worst teams in the league. I just know when the Patriots forced a punt and got the ball back with 3:58 left, it sure as hell would have been nicer if they were down 25-17 instead of 25-16. That way you could even punt on 4th-and-26 instead of having to go for it and for sure ending the game early with a big loss.

At least give me a chance in a one-score game. But the Patriots should again feel some encouragement with Drake Maye, who threw for 276 yards, 2 more touchdowns, and only took 2 sacks on 37 pass attempts. I’m not sure what sitting behind Jacoby Brissett did for him, but I’m glad we’re past that part of the season.

That still doesn’t mean I want to wake up at 9:30 A.M. to watch the post-Belichick Patriots play overseas against the London Jaguars.

Raiders at Rams: The “If a Bear Shits in the Woods…” Game of the Week

It’s a little early in the season to just not care at all about these teams, but that’s where I am already. I just don’t see either being part of the playoff picture. Matthew Stafford and Gardner Minshew both threw for 154 yards in this game, though Minshew did his work off the bench after starter Aidan O’Connell left with an injury.

But the Raiders kept trying to chip away with field goals while the Rams missed potentially a huge 35-yard field goal with 10:11 left that would have made it a 23-12 lead. Instead, Minshew later got the ball back in a 20-15 game with 1:39 left. If he truly is the Ryan Fitzpatrick of the 2020s, he lived up to the reputation with a game-ending interception on the third play of the drive. Good pressure on the drive by Jared Verse, who I guess is still the frontrunner for Defensive Rookie of the Year.

Dolphins at Colts: Neither Team Had Their Best Quarterback

Tough loss for Miami (2-4) if they were hoping to get back in this thing with Tua Tagovailoa maybe returning at quarterback next week. They were up 10-0 and Anthony Richardson couldn’t hit the broad side of a barn with his passes.

But the Dolphins gave up a big completion before halftime, which led to a field goal for the Colts. Then in the third quarter, they really coughed up the game to the Colts. Raheem Mostert lost a fumble, which led to a 28-yard touchdown drive, then Alec Ingold lost a fumble in the red zone in a 10-10 game.

The Colts had the ball to start the fourth and Richardson led what is technically his first game-winning drive in the NFL, ending with a 22-yard field goal with 8:41 left. But the Dolphins lost Tyler Huntley to injury, and he was replaced by the dreadful Tim Boyle. Kicker Jason Sanders missed a 54-yard tying field goal with 5:14 left.

After the Colts added a field goal to make it 16-10, a move you can get away with against Boyle, it was a poorly-run 2-minute drill for the Dolphins that didn’t make it past the Indy 33 before Boyle sailed his 4th-down pass out of bounds. Either he’s incredibly inaccurate and tried to get that pass to the sidelines, or he didn’t realize it was fourth down.

Either way, I hate entertaining either of these teams for wild card spots. This is not good football. A game between Joe Flacco and Tua might have been alright though.

Panthers at Commanders: Please, Spare My Favorite Rookie

The crazy thing is Jayden Daniels left in the first quarter with a rib injury and the Commanders still won 40-7. The Washington defense still matched the Carolina team in scoring thanks to a horrific Andy Dalton pick-six starting the scoring in the game. But Marcus Mariota replaced Daniels very well, and it was business as usual for this offense.

I think that says a lot more about how bad the Panthers are (again) than anything about Daniels being a system quarterback. You can’t teach his 46-yard run to anyone, but Mariota is a good fit for that offense.

I just hope Daniels is okay to go next week in the showdown with Chicago and fellow rookie Caleb Williams. It was clear there was no need to rush him back in this game with the score lopsided so quickly.

Next week: Vikings-Rams on TNF. Better than putting Sam Darnold in prime time a week later when the ghosts are out. Eagles-Bengals is a nice game for teams who peaked in 2022. I hope they #FreeJameis against Baltimore in Cleveland. The Falcons-Bucs rematch could be something after the first game was excellent. We need Jayden Daniels healthy for that Chicago game to save the late-window slate. Cowboys-49ers is oddly more interesting now that both teams are struggling. Giants-Steelers means we get to live the Russ experience in prime time again, but I see that as T.J. Watt’s launch game towards DPOY since he gets to face Daniel Jones. Overall, a huge step down from the Week 7 marquee games.

NFL 2024 Week 7 Predictions: Strongest Schedule Edition

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

I wouldn’t even say it was by accident, but the NFL has loaded up the best schedule of the 2024 season (so far) with the Week 7 slate. Texans-Packers, Lions-Vikings, Chiefs-49ers, and Ravens-Bucs are all great games, and even Sunday night’s Jets-Steelers game has drama with the debuts of Davante Adams and Russell Wilson on their new teams.

It’s definitely one of those pivotal weeks in the Super Bowl chase as the 49ers need to get a win for their mental health against the Chiefs just to show they can beat that team, their personal road block to multiple championships. We also get to see just how real the Vikings and Sam Darnold are in this NFC North race against the Lions, and I think Texans-Packers is a great non-conference matchup between two teams I was very high on in the offseason.

Favorites were dominant last week with a 12-2 record SU. I’d keep that in mind when it comes to picking this week’s winners, especially in those big games were the road teams are slight underdogs and home-field isn’t what it used to be in this league.

This Week’s Articles

NFL Week 7 Predictions

I confused Sean Payton for still coaching the Saints, but Denver was in fact my pick on Thursday night, a terrible game to watch. I’m not getting up early for Pats-Jags either. But the good stuff should start at 1 PM.

Pats-Jags: Jacksonville has to win or they’re going to fire Doug Pederson, right? But Drake Maye showed some positives against the Texans last week, so I’m going to hedge and still take the Pats to cover in a closer game than both teams played last week.

Titans-Bills: It looks like Mason Rudolph is starting for Will Levis, but he returns to Buffalo where he lost a playoff game 31-17 with Pittsburgh last year. The Bills haven’t blown anyone out in weeks so they feel due for a big, easy win at home here. The Titans just can’t score enough.

Texans-Packers: I said my 2024 predictions would be horrible if these teams bombed, but they’re 4-2 and 5-1 right now. I’m siding with the Texans here, because I think the Packers have been feasting on turnovers, C.J. Stroud usually protects the ball, and the running game has looked very good with Joe Mixon in the game this year. I also trust Stroud more than Love in crunch time, so I think the Texans can win this one by a late score. Should be good.

Dolphins-Colts: I changed my gut pick here to Miami, a team that tends to win when I expect them to lose. But it’s mostly just that I don’t trust Anthony Richardson, especially without Jonathan Taylor in the backfield. Give me a Colts win if Joe Flacco was the QB, but that’s not the case (unless AR gets hurt again).

Seahawks-Falcons: Could be a good one, but I’m going to trust Atlanta at home as I just don’t trust the Seattle defense. They played bad offenses to start the season and have suffered injuries. Too much skill for Atlanta but it is a push candidate on the spread.

Lions-Vikings: Good spot to see how the Vikings play out of the bye week and how the Lions handle losing Aidan Hutchinson. But my belief is the Lions are going to be the best prepared team to face the Vikings after seeing them twice late in the 2023 season and winning both games. I think they get some turnovers from Sam Darnold, I think Jared Goff does enough against that Brian Flores’ defense, and the Lions keep rolling with a win.

Bengals-Browns: Nick Chubb is back and Kevin Stefanski owns the Bengals in his career. The only problem here is Deshaun Watson is the worst QB in the NFL still starting games. However, I’m going to hedge on the history here and at least give the Browns a chance to cover 5.5 at home. We know the Bengals are a lousy big favorite.

Eagles-Giants: I want to trust Saquon Barkley to have a big Revenge Game in a win. I feel better about it after he was shut down last week. Why? Week-to-week league. What was down last week goes up the next week. Plus I just don’t trust Daniel Jones to beat this team, something I don’t believe he’s done since 2021 when Jalen Hurts had maybe the worst game of his career in a 13-7 final.

Raiders-Rams: Isn’t Stafford contractually obligated to be in a close game every Sunday afternoon? I like the Rams to win, but I’m not trusting them with a 7-point spread.

Panthers-Commanders: Again, it’s time for big favorites to start regressing to the mean and crushing teams. The Commanders have some blowout wins and I just don’t think Panthers will keep up with that offense. Could be a 30-20 game.

Chiefs-49ers: Does the 11-game winning streak continue? We know the Chiefs are usually great after a bye, but the 49ers played last Thursday so it’s not as big of an advantage. Then again, they’ve had byes before two Super Bowls and the Chiefs always find a way to win against Shanahan in the Mahomes era. I could see the Chiefs slipping up here with JuJu popping up with a hamstring issue late in the week. But I also think Purdy holding the ball longer and getting less YAC this season could play into Spags’ hands with blitzes. Should be a good one I’m going to try to watch most of live. I’ll cautiously pick the Chiefs, because you know better than to doubt Mahomes as a road underdog.

Jets-Steelers: I’ll be picking the Jets regardless of which QB the Steelers start. I think Russ is the right call, but all week I’ve pegged this as a game where the Jets will score like 24-27 points and the Steelers will lose, causing people to blame the QB change while ignoring that Justin Fields is 0-22 when the team allows more than 20 points in his career. But I think Rodgers will be comfortable against this predictable defense barring a Watt monster game, and I expect Davante Adams to have an impact immediately. No game-losing INT to Mike Williams this week. Jets finally end the losing streak in what should be a close game.

Ravens-Bucs: Great potential here but I’m not liking the Mike Evans injury news. Sounds like he’ll play though. Ravens are just a tough matchup but at least they faced each other in 2022, so that’s somewhat recent. I’m trusting Lamar to improve to 23-1 against the NFC.

Chargers-Cardinals: No Chargers game has reached 40 total points this year, so the Harbaugh impact has been crazy in multiple ways. The Cardinals are a great 1Q offense before disappearing the rest of the game. Not expecting a ton from this one but I’ll cautiously back the Chargers for another win.

2024 NFL Stat Oddity: Week 6

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

At the very least, I picked the appropriate week to call my NFL picks “Favoring the Favorites” on Saturday. Favorites just went 11-2 SU and 10-3 ATS in Week 6 with Monday night pending. I took the underdog Jets for that one, so we’ll see, but it was finally a great day for the favorites.

And what a great day for the NFC North. The Lions blew out the Cowboys on Jerry Jones’ birthday to get some revenge for last year, the Packers routed the Cardinals, the Bears routed the Jaguars, and the 5-0 Vikings had a bye week. But every NFC North team is 4-2 or better, and they are the top four teams in scoring differential pending Buffalo on MNF.

That’s one of the craziest stats I’ve ever seen. But there was not much late-game drama in Week 6. Only six games had a comeback opportunity, including the Seahawks on Thursday night, and the only fourth-quarter lead change all day was in Tennessee.

This season in NFL Stat Oddity:

Commanders at Ravens: Respectable in Defeat

Figures, I got greedy and took Ravens -9.5 and their late 30-20 lead didn’t hold up in this 30-23 final that was right on the spread and total (Ravens -6.5, O/U 51). Vegas nailed that one.

But while the Ravens still won to make both teams 4-2, I think you have to be impressed by the young Commanders and rookie Jayden Daniels. He didn’t have Brian Robinson Jr. and they couldn’t run the ball as he led the team with 22 rushing yards. Their defense has really struggled this year, and this game was no exception with Lamar Jackson throwing for 323 yards on 20-of-26 passing, and Derrick Henry rushed for 132 yards and 2 more touchdowns. The only Baltimore turnover was an interception on the first drive on a pass that went off Mark Andrews’ hands.

But the Commanders hung around the whole game. They had some struggles in Baltimore territory, and their 52-yard field goal was blocked to end the first half. Daniels showed some great ball placement on tough throws to Terry McLaurin, who caught 2 touchdowns (to the chagrin of my best parlays that needed Ekeler or Daniels to run it in).

Even though they lost, I think this is a good measuring stick game for the Commanders, and they should feel solid about how they performed against an elite AFC team. When they look at the rest of the NFC East on Sunday, they can’t feel that bad about this loss.

This game didn’t produce a memorable finish or even a true game-winning drive opportunity, but it was not a Baltimore blowout by any means like they’ve done to so many NFC teams in the Jackson era. Still, he is 22-1 against the NFC now.

Bengals at Giants: Can We Petition the NFL to Stop Putting Daniel Jones in Prime Time?

Daniel Jones is like a Gremlin where you can’t feed him or have him start an NFL game after 8:00 p.m. ET unless you want trouble. Jones is now 1-15 in prime-time starts with the Giants since 2019, and the latest was quite the masterpiece as he lost a 17-7 game at home to the Bengals on Sunday night.

What a week. Bengals fans went from lying about how Patrick Mahomes has never had a defense as bad as the 2024 Bengals, and now let’s see them pass off this game where the Bengals allowed 7 points on 10 drives, the fewest points allowed in Joe Burrow’s first 65 starts.

But it was such a weird game. We would have been scoreless into the third quarter if not for Burrow rushing for a 47-yard touchdown run on a 3rd-and-18 on the opening drive. The red sea parted and he just took off with barely enough speed to reach the pylon.

We were stuck like that for a long time, but the Giants started using four downs to convert some drives, and we eventually had a 10-7 game in the fourth quarter. But not only is Jones horrible in prime time, but we know game-winning drives are not his strength outside of the beginning of that 2022 season. He wasn’t horrific here, but he ran out of steam on a key drive when they had a chance to take the late lead on the Bengals.

Kicker Greg Joseph reminded us he used to kick for the Vikings when he was wide left on a 47-yard field goal that would have tied the game with 10:27 left. But after the Bengals punted, Jones had another chance. It ended with another turnover on downs, the second of the half as he just struggles to make those timing passes into short windows.

Burrow finally made a big play on a 3rd-and-12 with a 29-yard completion, and Chase Brown went from goat to hero (sort of) after scoring a 30-yard touchdown to make it 17-7 with 1:52 left. On the previous snap, Brown fumbled in the open field, which would have been a disaster if the Giants got on the ball before it landed out of bounds.

Brown could have just went down after he got the first, and the game would have been over with kneeldowns. Easiest way to do it and no injury risk to your defenders that way. But he scored to make us forget that fumble (and cover that 3.5-point spread).

On their responding drive, the Giants reached the Cincinnati 27 with the clock ticking under a minute and they spiked the ball with 55 seconds left to bring Joseph out for a 45-yard field goal. He was wide left again and the game was over.

My question is why are teams doing this now? The Broncos did something very similar, if not more egregious, against the Chargers on Sunday in the same situation with a 10-point deficit. Why are we kicking on first down with a minute left with the end zone 20-to-25 yards away? I’d rather take some shots from there to get the touchdown, then I can get my miracle onside kick recovery, then I can set up a long field goal with one or two snaps if it’s going to happen.

That still feels like a better scenario than forcing the field goal, getting the tough onside kick, and possibly having to force a long touchdown play, if not a Hail Mary that’s very low percentage. If you manage the clock and have a play called instead of the spike like the Giants did, you could have been inside the 15 with the clock stopped and 45 seconds left if you use the sidelines.

I don’t know if the Giants and Broncos are just seeing this differently than the rest of the league will, but I didn’t like the rush for the field goal in either scenario Sunday. Even if you recover the onside kick, you’re still going to be about 55 yards from the end zone. How long will it take you to get the 30 yards closer then you are now? Keep in mind the Giants didn’t have a single play gain more than 15 yards all night.

I want to see more examples of this in 2024 to see what other teams do. But the Bengals got the win here as expected, even if the 17-7 outcome was nothing like anyone expected.

Lions at Cowboys: Someone Take Jerry to the Glory Hole for a Better Birthday

I really liked Detroit in this one after what happened last season with the illegal formation penalty in a 20-19 game won by Dallas. But I never expected 47-9 with the Cowboys simply getting destroyed at home on both sides of the ball. The defense getting annihilated without Micah Parsons against that Detroit attack? Sure, that part makes sense.

But the offense couldn’t find the end zone once in 11 drives? Really? Dak Prescott didn’t even throw for 200 yards as they benched him with the game out of hand. The Cowboys finished with 5 turnovers in an embarrassing loss, the worst home loss of Jerry Jones’ career and on his 82nd birthday.

But despite the big win, the Lions suffered a big loss on the day. Aidan Hutchinson was dominating this season and a favorite for Defensive Player of the Year. But on a play where he sacked Prescott in the third quarter, Hutchinson broke his tibia in one of the most gruesome injuries I’ve ever seen in an NFL game.

That’s a terrible break for Detroit as you need that kind of edge rusher for a Super Bowl season. It can’t be all offense every week, but right now, the Lions are clicking on that side of the ball. They were clicking everywhere in Dallas on Sunday.

Cardinals at Packers: Complete Effort

When I picked the Packers to win the Super Bowl or at least get there from the NFC this season, this is the kind of performance I pictured of them at their best. Jordan Love spreading the ball to his weapons with defenses not knowing who to key in against. He threw 4 touchdowns to three different receivers in this one and he didn’t take a sack. The running game was also dominant, and something I didn’t quite expect, but the defense has been stellar at forcing splash plays all year. They had 3 more takeaways in this 34-13 rout.

The Cardinals are frustrating, man. They come up just short of beating Buffalo, they came back to beat the 49ers last week, but they’ve also stunk offensively against the Lions, Commanders, and now Packers. It didn’t help that Marvin Harrison Jr. was injured before he could make a catch in this game but come on. They have enough talent to score more than 13 points.

I’d still like to see a turnover-free game from Love, but 34 points will absolve him here. Now let’s start stacking wins like last year.

Jaguars vs. Bears: Caleb Williams’ Critics Are Getting Quiet Quickly

Just like how you don’t trash Caitlin Clark after 5 games, you don’t dismiss the No. 1 overall pick after a couple of games in the NFL. You can take shots at the competition, but the Bears are scoring points during this 3-game winning streak. They’ve had back-to-back games with at least 35 points.

Williams faced the London Jaguars on their turf, and he threw 4 touchdown passes, completely taking control of the offense in a 35-16 win. Even the 3 sacks he took only lost 5 yards in this game as he completed 23-of-29 passes for 226 yards. Picking apart a bad defense is what you hope to see from a rookie, and Williams delivered with Cole Kmet and Keenan Allen both catching a pair of touchdowns. D.J. Moore (20 yards) didn’t even have to do much this week, which speaks to Williams’ ability to spread the ball around and make things happen.

All of a sudden, I don’t hear the Justin Fields truthers complaining that he’s gone. I don’t see the people burying the Bears for this pick or poking fun at the thought of Williams having the best supporting cast for a rookie QB drafted No. 1 overall.

We’ll see what happens in these division games as the NFC North is incredible to start this season. But Williams is an impressive rookie and Chicago fans can be excited again. As for the Jaguars, they’re reportedly staying in London for the New England game next Sunday. If they lose that one too, I’m thinking Doug Pederson gets the axe a la Robert Saleh.

Texans at Patriots: Drake Maye Era Begins

Can we stop pretending like Drake Maye would have died if he started a game in September for the Patriots? He faced the best pass rush in Houston, took 4 sacks, but still threw 3 touchdowns (Jacoby Brissett had 2 all season), threw for 243 yards, and he led the team with 38 rushing yards as they couldn’t provide him with a running game.

Were their mistakes? Sure, he had 3 turnovers, but what did you expect? Houston was marching early for touchdowns and he was chasing. But there were positive moments and fans should feel optimistic given how ugly some of those Week 1 rookie starts were this year.

It’s also amusing to me that in one Drake Maye start, the Patriots allowed 41 points on defense. Tom Brady only had one game his entire career where they allowed more points than that. Go figure.

But Houston is one of the best teams he could have faced this year. Better days will be ahead. Try to focus on the positives in the 41-21 loss. At the same time, Houston finally won a game by more than 6 points this year, so good for them too. Joe Mixon has been stellar in his two full games for this offense, which didn’t miss Nico Collins at all for this matchup.

Browns at Eagles: Philly Has No Aura

I’m always talking about the quick turnarounds in the NFC and how that conference loves to produce a new flash in the pan each year. The Eagles are a great example of this. They had a great season in 2022 when they reached the Super Bowl, then they were 10-1 last year even if they were very fortunate to win several of those games, which foreshadowed their collapse.

But this team has no aura anymore. Even with A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith returning for this game, which was critical as they won it for Jalen Hurts with the running game stuffed, the Eagles still struggled at home to score 20 points. They were in a dogfight with Deshaun Watson, who took 5 more sacks and sucked on 3rd down again.

This was a 13-13 game in the fourth quarter before Smith took a short pass and turned it into a 45-yard game-winning touchdown with half a quarter left. The Browns had their chances in the fourth quarter but settled for a field goal both times. The last one made it 20-16 with 3:54 left.

The Eagles were able to bleed the clock on offense with Brown making a 40-yard catch to ice it. Brown and Smith had 3-of-4 plays that gained over 20 yards for the Eagles in this game.

If they were playing a better quarterback than Watson, which would be about anyone in 2024, things may have gone worse in this one. The Eagles are 3-2, and that’s only good enough for No. 9 in the NFC at the moment.

They’ll have to play much better than this to leapfrog some of these teams, but the division is still their clearest path to the playoffs. But I’ll be curious to see how this defense handles Jayden Daniels and the Commanders twice.

Steelers at Raiders: Guess Oakland Had the Voodoo That Vegas Doesn’t

I’m so used to the Steelers going on the road to lose to the Raiders, but maybe Las Vegas doesn’t hold the same voodoo for them that the Oakland Coliseum had. The Steelers won in Vegas last year, the only game where Kenny Pickett threw two touchdown passes. The Steelers won there again this time with Najee Harris finally ending his touchdown drought with a great effort on a 36-yard run.

But there weren’t many offensive highlights outside of that. After falling behind 7-6, the Steelers lived on short fields the rest of the way, which has a lot to do with the 32 points. Justin Fields struggled to sustain offense, but it’s hard not to put up decent points when you’re starting two drives inside the opponent’s 10 and another two drives inside the 36. The Raiders also had some crucial roughing penalties to take away a Fields’ pick and a 3rd-down stop that extended another scoring drive.

Russell Wilson was active for the first time all season but remained a backup. I guess the win won’t change a thing for Tomlin’s choice at quarterback, but I still think this team is screwed when Fields has to outscore the better teams. Fortunately, this was Aidan O’Connell trying his best without Davante Adams or Jakobi Meyers available.

T.J. Watt is also the likely favorite for Defensive Player of the Year after the Aidan Hutchinson injury. He forced two fumbles in this one. Just one of the best players ever at knocking the ball out.

Chargers at Broncos: Healthy Justin Herbert Returns

The intrigue at the start of this one was when coach Jim Harbaugh momentarily left the game for what was an arrhythmia situation. Thankfully, he was able to return. Thankfully, the Chargers didn’t blow a 23-0 lead in the fourth quarter, though they tried their best.

But a healthy Justin Herbert made a big difference as he threw for more yards by halftime than he had in any full game this season after having the bye week to heal up. The Broncos’ defense had been playing very well, but Herbert had no problems early, and it didn’t hurt that Patrick Surtain left with an injury.

But you would like to see the Chargers close things out better than this after giving up the last 16 points in the last 11 minutes. Fortunately, the Broncos didn’t recover the onside kick after getting a second crack at it.

Buccaneers at Saints: Baker’s 50 Burger

What a nutty, frustrating game. One of my core plays this week was Chris Olave going over 5.5 yards in the first quarter after rookie Spencer Rattler talked about getting him the ball after a quiet game against the Chiefs. He was facing the Tampa defense that gave up over 500 yards to Kirk Cousins last week. It made too much sense.

Of course, Rattler fires a pass to Olave in trouble on the third snap of the opening drive, he takes a huge helmet-to-helmet shot, fumbles the ball for a (questionable) touchdown by the defense, and the play only gained 5 yards. He missed the rest of the game for the concussion, something that has plagued his career.

That’s the kind of shit that will make you quit gambling. He just had to lead him into a huge hit like that. Then before you know it, the Saints are down 17-0 and everything looks so bleak. But not even 11 minutes later, they were leading 20-17 thanks to some Baker Mayfield turnovers and a punt return touchdown by Rashid Shaheed. Before you know it, the Saints put up 27 points in the second quarter with Rattler looking like a cheap imitation of Patrick Mahomes.

But the Saints never scored again. In fact, this is the first time since a Mahomes game against the 2019 Raiders where a team scored this many points (28 in that case) in the second quarter and none in any other quarter. That game actually was scoreless by both teams after halftime.

Not the case here. Even though Mayfield threw 3 interceptions, he had this offense moving all day to the tune of 594 yards. He also threw for 325 yards and 4 touchdowns with Chris Godwin (11/125/2) posting a huge line. Without Rachaad White, the Buccaneers rushed for 277 yards and eventually put up 51 points.

This was still a 31-27 game with a quarter left, but Rattler threw a bad pick immediately to start the fourth quarter. That’s when the avalanches really started as Tampa won 51-27. But it was a very weird game script.

Colts at Titans: Flacco Delivers in Surprise Start

I’m sure Shane Steichen gets the sense that his offense is better with Joe Flacco than it is Anthony Richardson, especially when Jonathan Taylor is inactive. Richardson was supposed to start, but Flacco got the call in the end. It was just that kind of week for the Colts as No. 1 wide receiver Michael Pittman was supposed to go on injured reserve for his bad back, but he ended up playing and had a huge impact.

Pittman came down with a 10-yard game-winning touchdown with 7:27 left. Pittman also made a 16-yard grab at the two-minute warning that allowed the Colts to run most of the clock with a 20-17 lead. The Titans only had time left for the lateral play to end it.

But the Titans had the ball multiple times in the fourth quarter, only needing a field goal to tie. Will Levis threw a pick with 4:52 left, then they decided to punt on a 4th-and-7 at their own 25 with 2:26 left. They had three clock stoppages left, but it was probably the wrong decision in a 20-17 game. They only had 12 seconds when they got the ball back to work with.

Of course, having Will Levis as your quarterback probably means you’re screwed even if the game was another 30 minutes. Levis finished 16-of-27 for 95 yards against what has been one of the worst defenses this year. He was 0-for-8 when targeting to Calvin Ridley, who I can tell you I won’t be targeting again in prop picks the rest of the season. He’s made the shitlist.

I really think the Titans need to be close to benching Levis for Mason Rudolph. If you look at their touchdown drives in this game, one was 27 yards after a Flacco pick, and the other was only made possible by Tony Pollard breaking a 23-yard run on 3rd-and-19.

This game also reminded me of just how many flags Flacco draws with his dangerous passes. He had 5 flags drawn in this game for defensive pass interference, defensive holding, illegal contact, or roughing the passer, including a wiped-out pick and several third-down incompletions erased by penalty.

But that’s Flacco. He just keeps slinging it – eight straight games with multiple touchdown passes – even in games where he wasn’t supposed to play.

Falcons at Panthers: Rare Easy Win for Kirk Cousins

In typical Kirk Cousins fashion, the Falcons have been living on the edge all season, having already won three of the most improbable games of the 2024 season. This looked like the last hope for some late-game drama in the late-afternoon window as Cousins and Andy Dalton were trading scoring drives as Atlanta took a 28-20 lead into the fourth quarter.

But in a familiar story for the Panthers for many years now, they folded in the fourth. Dalton was intercepted in scoring territory, and the Falcons cranked up their running game in this one – over 200 yards before Cousins’ kneeldowns – and put together an 84-yard touchdown drive to make it 35-20. A quick four-and-out by Carolina led to another field goal and a 38-20 final. Dalton threw another pick to officially end things.

At 1-5, I expect Carolina to turn things back to Bryce Young. You have to see what more you have there, and maybe he’ll try things differently after this benching. Dalton is what he is, and it’s just not enough to compete this year. Let’s get some assurance that Young sucks and the team needs to shop elsewhere for 2025.

Next week: I see an early writing night on Thursday with Saints-Broncos, but Sean Payton will probably win that one in New Orleans. I’m sleeping in even longer for Patriots-Jaguars than I did for Bears-Jaguars in London. But the NFL actually delivers with the rest of the Week 7 schedule, including Packers-Texans, Lions-Vikings, and Chiefs-49ers. Not fond of Jets-Steelers on SNF, but Ravens-Buccaneers is coming at a great time on a MNF doubleheader with the less important Chargers-Cardinals. Don’t think we’ll have two undefeated teams left after this Sunday.

NFL 2024 Week 6 Predictions: Favoring the Favorites Edition

~ Scott ~ Leave a comment

My NFL picks have a problem this week in that I didn’t pick a single underdog to win on Sunday. I’ll explain why below, but I know I’m likely setting myself up for trouble. However, underdogs have already had such a strong season that it’s well past time things start trending the other way on that.

The potential Game of the Week is Commanders-Ravens given how explosive those offenses have been and how untrustworthy the defenses are this year. But I actually think that game is going to disappoint and we’re going to get a double-digit Baltimore victory as Lamar Jackson improves to 22-1 vs. NFC opponents who just don’t know how to handle him.

In past years, I’d take the bait on Washington +6.5, talking about Jayden Daniels jumping ahead of Lamar Jackson in the MVP odds, and that great offense taking advantage of a vulnerable Baltimore defense. Does that make sense this week? Absolutely. But I’m looking to zig when others are zagging as I see the public is on Washington +6.5 quite heavily. Feels like the spot where the young team and rookie disappoint, and Baltimore establishes some dominance at home with an easier win that probably won’t even be a massive shootout. Think Lions-Cowboys or Packers-Cardinals for that tomorrow.

I’d welcome being wrong on WAS-BAL since a new power with a rookie QB would be very cool to see, but I just think the status quo isn’t ready to change on that one.

This Week’s Articles

  • 2024 NFL Quarterback Rankings Week 6 – Looking at Josh Allen’s rough game in Houston (1992 Seahawks reference), and the rookies are heating up.
  • Top Options for Player Props – 5 players (evergreen) who look most trustworthy for prop betting this season.
  • Bengals-Giants SNF Picks – Daniel Jones is 1-14 in prime time and has been held under 21.5 points in 13-of-15 games.
  • Scott’s Seven NFL Picks Week 6 – I really like a Josh Allen INT, Chris Olave to go over 5.5 yards in the 1st quarter, and the Texans to beat a scrambling Drake Maye in New England. Also trusting Calvin Ridley, A.J. Brown, and for the Steelers to finally get Najee Harris in the end zone.

2024 NFL Week 6 Predictions

Started things off with a win this week as the Seahawks just can’t seem to outscore the 49ers anymore.

Here’s why I struggled to pick any underdog to win on Sunday.

Jags-Bears: Maybe Jacksonville found something with Tank Bigsby and the running game last week, but more importantly, they are pros in the London experience and I think that helps them edge out a win here.

Commanders-Ravens: Already gave my thoughts on this one above, and I think Brian Robinson Jr. being out reinforces the idea that the Commanders won’t be as effective on offense in Baltimore, and Lamar and Henry are going to torture that defense.

Bucs-Saints: While I love Chris Olave 1Q stats in this one, I don’t trust rookie Spencer Rattler enough for the whole game, and I think the Bucs are playing better ball right now while the Saints have really struggled after that hot start. Give me Tampa to win one after a difficult week with the OT loss and the area dealing with hurricanes. Bucky Irving gets a TD to make up for the fumble last week.

Browns-Eagles: Maybe some upset potential, but I just can’t trust Deshaun Watson to win any game right now. Look for the Eagles to get after him and for Jalen Hurts to be very happy that his WRs are back.

Colts-Titans: I’d take Indy if Joe Flacco was the QB, but I don’t trust Anthony Richardson to get the job done. I sure don’t trust Will Levis either, but I think with the bye week and a defense that is playing very poorly for the Colts, they’ll find a way to stack wins and get it done here.

Texans-Patriots: The Texans have a negative scoring differential this season as they haven’t won any game by more than 6 points, and they lost 34-7 to the Vikings. Definitely not playing as great as I expected, and now Nico Collins is out. But I think the best pass rush puts Drake Maye through a blender and they get their biggest MOV win this season. Even if it’s a 20-13 game, that’ll do, pig.

Cardinals-Packers: Maybe I’m losing it, but I think this has 30-27 potential as a fun late afternoon game. As long as Kyler Murray can avoid those pesky turnovers on the road, that is.

Chargers-Broncos: It sounds like Justin Herbert is as healthy as he’s been all season after the bye. Bo Nix seems to be absolutely dreadful every other week, so I’m going to trust Herbert and Jim Harbaugh’s defense to get this road win and stop Denver’s winning streak.

Steelers-Raiders: Under normal circumstances, I’d pick the Raiders to win this. But maybe Vegas isn’t Oakland as far as a hellhole for Mike Tomlin to visit and lose a game he should win. They won there last year with Kenny Pickett throwing 2 TDs for the only time in his career. Throw in the Steelers losing last week to Dallas at the end, the Raiders not having Davante Adams or Jakobi Meyers available, and I think it’s trending Pittsburgh’s way. But I wouldn’t be shocked if they barely covered the spread regardless.

Falcons-Panthers: Can we really trust the Falcons to win any game by a big margin right now? Could be a nice little back-and-forth game with Kirk Cousins and Andy Dalton here. Throw in that shitty pass rush from the Falcons, and that’s why I like Dalton to go over in passing yards.

Lions-Cowboys: This could be the best game of the day, but I’m backing the Lions to get revenge for last year’s controversial 20-19 loss on that illegal formation penalty. Micah Parsons and other key parts of that defense being out for Dallas is the deciding factor here. Jared Goff won’t hit 100% of his passes again, but I think that offense stays hot and wins this one.

Bengals-Giants: Got the preview link above for this one. I think without Malik Nabers, the Giants aren’t going to score enough points to win. Sacking Joe Burrow 5+ times is their only hope and I don’t think it’ll happen.

Bills-Jets: This is similar to 49ers-Seahawks in that it’s a game for first place, but both teams lost last week and are disappointing us at the moment. The 49ers, the preseason favorite, prevailed on Thursday night, but I’m not counting on the same for Buffalo, especially after I think Josh Allen played with a concussion at the end of that game in Houston where he was 9-for-30. The Jets have a good defense and we have seen them make him struggle before. He has no picks this year, but that streak should come to an end in this game. And even though I don’t think firing Robert Saleh now fixes anything, somehow I see Aaron Rodgers getting a win this week even though it was his poor play against Denver and Minnesota that got Saleh fired.

More parlay plays to come on Twitter, so stay tuned there.